WorldWideScience

Sample records for extremal disturbance analysis

  1. Analysis of disturbance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciala-Wein, H.; Stegmaier, W.

    1977-12-01

    The analyses of disturbances are the supposition for the development of processes and plants. They are very important in the field of nuclear testing plants. In this report are described the possibilities to register the circumstances of the disturbance in a pilot waste processing facility and a computer programme to interpret them. This is a first scheme and it will be necessary to complete it. (orig.) [de

  2. Computer aided analysis of disturbances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldeweg, F.; Lindner, A.

    1986-01-01

    Computer aided analysis of disturbances and the prevention of failures (diagnosis and therapy control) in technological plants belong to the most important tasks of process control. Research in this field is very intensive due to increasing requirements to security and economy of process control and due to a remarkable increase of the efficiency of digital electronics. This publication concerns with analysis of disturbances in complex technological plants, especially in so called high risk processes. The presentation emphasizes theoretical concept of diagnosis and therapy control, modelling of the disturbance behaviour of the technological process and the man-machine-communication integrating artificial intelligence methods, e.g., expert system approach. Application is given for nuclear power plants. (author)

  3. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  4. Animal responses to natural disturbance and climate extremes: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergio, Fabrizio; Blas, Julio; Hiraldo, Fernando

    2018-02-01

    Natural disturbances, such as droughts, fires or hurricanes, are key drivers of ecological heterogeneity and ecosystem function. The frequency and severity of these episodes is unequivocally expected to increase in the coming decades, through the concerted action of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This will impose severe challenges for many biota through exposure to rapidly changing conditions never experienced in the preceding millennia. Thus, it is urgently needed to gain a thorough understanding of animal responses and adaptations to disturbances in order to better estimate potential future impacts. Here, we review such adjustments and find that animals may respond to disturbances through changes in: (1) behaviour, such as altered mobility, emigration, resource-switching, refuge use, suspended animation, or biotic interactions; (2) life history traits, such as survival, aging, longevity, recruitment, reproductive restraint, breeding output, phenology and bet-hedging tactics; (3) morphology, such as rapid evolution through size-dependent mortality or facultative metamorphosis; (4) physiology, such as altered body condition, pathogen prevalence and transmission, or adrenocortical modulation of stress responses to emergency conditions; (5) genetic structure, such as changes in frequency of polymorphic variants or diversity-modulation through mortality bottlenecks. Individual-level responses scale up to population and community responses, such as altered density, population dynamics, distribution, local extinction and colonization, or assemblage structure and diversity. Overall, disturbances have pervasive effects on individuals, populations and communities of vertebrates and invertebrates of all realms, biomes, continents and ecosystems. Their rapidly increasing incidence and severity will bring unique study opportunities for researchers and novel, unpredictable challenges for managers, while demanding tougher choices and more proactive crisis

  5. Improving Modeling of Extreme Events using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution or Generalized Pareto Distribution with Mixing Unconditional Disturbances

    OpenAIRE

    Suarez, R

    2001-01-01

    In this paper an alternative non-parametric historical simulation approach, the Mixing Unconditional Disturbances model with constant volatility, where price paths are generated by reshuffling disturbances for S&P 500 Index returns over the period 1950 - 1998, is used to estimate a Generalized Extreme Value Distribution and a Generalized Pareto Distribution. An ordinary back-testing for period 1999 - 2008 was made to verify this technique, providing higher accuracy returns level under upper ...

  6. Disturbance analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sillamaa, M.A.

    Disturbance analysis is any systematic procedure that helps an operator determine what has failed. This paper describes the typical information currently provided in CANDU power plants to help the operator respond to a disturbance. It presents a simplified model of how an operator could get into trouble, and briefly reviews development work on computerized disturbance analysis systems for nuclear power plants being done in various countries including Canada. Disturbance analysis systems promise to be useful tools in helping operators improve their response to complex situations. However, the originality and complexity of the work for a disturbance analysis system and the need to develop operator confidence and management support require a 'walk before you run' approach

  7. Extreme CO2 disturbance and the resilience of soil microbial communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Jack W.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Haw, Monica

    2013-01-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CSS) technology has the potential to inadvertently release large quantities of CO2 through geologic substrates and into surrounding soils and ecosystems. Such a disturbance has the potential to not only alter the structure and function of plant and animal communities, but also soils, soil microbial communities, and the biogeochemical processes they mediate. At Mammoth Mountain, we assessed the soil microbial community response to CO2 disturbance (derived from volcanic ‘cold’ CO2) that resulted in localized tree kill; soil CO2 concentrations in our study area ranged from 0.6% to 60%. Our objectives were to examine how microbial communities and their activities are restructured by extreme CO2 disturbance, and assess the response of major microbial taxa to the reintroduction of limited plant communities following an extensive period (15–20 years) with no plants. We found that CO2-induced tree kill reduced soil carbon (C) availability along our sampling transect. In response, soil microbial biomass decreased by an order of magnitude from healthy forest to impacted areas. Soil microorganisms were most sensitive to changes in soil organic C, which explained almost 60% of the variation for microbial biomass C (MBC) along the CO2gradient. We employed phospholipid fatty acid analysis and quantitative PCR (qPCR) to determine compositional changes among microbial communities in affected areas and found substantial reductions in microbial biomass linked to the loss of soil fungi. In contrast, archaeal populations responded positively to the CO2 disturbance, presumably due to reduced competition of bacteria and fungi, and perhaps unique adaptations to energy stress. Enzyme activities important in the cycling of soil C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) declined with increasing CO2, though specific activities (per unit MBC) remained stable or increased suggesting functional redundancy among restructured communities. We conclude that both the

  8. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  9. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  10. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  11. An artificial intelligence approach towards disturbance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiedler, U.; Lindner, A.; Baldeweg, F.; Klebau, J.

    1986-01-01

    Scale and degree of sophistication of technological plants, e.g. nuclear power plants, have been essentially increased during the last decades. Conventional disturbance analysis systems have proved to work successfully in well-known situations. But in cases of emergencies, the operator needs more advanced assistance in realizing diagnosis and therapy control. The significance of introducing artificial intelligence (AI) methods in nuclear power technology is emphasized. Main features of the on-line disturbance analysis system SAAP-2 are reported about. It is being developed for application to nuclear power plants. Problems related to man-machine communication will be gone into more detail, because their solution will influence end-user acceptance considerably. (author)

  12. Sediment Dynamics Within Buffer Zone and Sinkhole Splay Areas Under Extreme Soil Disturbance Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonover, Jon E; Crim, Jackie F; Williard, Karl W J; Groninger, John W; Zaczek, James J; Pattumma, Klairoong

    2015-09-01

    Sedimentation dynamics were assessed in sinkholes within training areas at Ft. Knox Military Installation, a karst landscape subjected to decades of tracked vehicle use and extreme soil disturbance. Sinkholes sampled were sediment-laden and behaved as intermittent ponds. Dendrogeomorphic analyses were conducted using willow trees (Salix spp.) located around the edge of 18 sinkholes to estimate historical sedimentation rates, and buried bottles were installed in 20 sinkholes at the center, outer edge, and at the midpoint between the center and edge to estimate annual sedimentation rates. Sedimentation data were coupled with vegetation characteristics of sinkhole buffers to determine relationships among these variables. The dendrogeomorphic method estimated an average accumulation rate of 1.27 cm year(-1) translating to a sediment loss rate of 46.1 metric ton year(-1) from the training areas. However, sediment export to sinkholes was estimated to be much greater (118.6 metric ton year(-1)) via the bottle method. These data suggest that the latter method provided a more accurate estimate since accumulation was greater in the center of sinkholes compared to the periphery where dendrogeomorphic data were collected. Vegetation data were not tightly correlated with sedimentation rates, suggesting that further research is needed to identify a viable proxy for direct measures of sediment accumulation in this extreme deposition environment. Mitigation activities for the sinkholes at Ft. Knox's tank training area, and other heavily disturbed karst environments where extreme sedimentation exists, should consider focusing on flow path and splay area management.

  13. Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2018-02-01

    Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

  14. Phase Image Analysis in Conduction Disturbance Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwark, Byeng Su; Choi, Si Wan; Kang, Seung Sik; Park, Ki Nam; Lee, Kang Wook; Jeon, Eun Seok; Park, Chong Hun

    1994-01-01

    It is known that the normal His-Purkinje system provides for nearly synchronous activation of right (RV) and left (LV) ventricles. When His-Purkinje conduction is abnormal, the resulting sequence of ventricular contraction must be correspondingly abnormal. These abnormal mechanical consequences were difficult to demonstrate because of the complexity and the rapidity of its events. To determine the relationship of the phase changes and the abnormalities of ventricular conduction, we performed phase image analysis of Tc-RBC gated blood pool scintigrams in patients with intraventricular conduction disturbances (24 complete left bundle branch block (C-LBBB), 15 complete right bundle branch block (C-RBBB), 13 Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW), 10 controls). The results were as follows; 1) The ejection fraction (EF), peak ejection rate (PER), and peak filling rate (PFR) of LV in gated blood pool scintigraphy (GBPS) were significantly lower in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (44.4 ± 13.9% vs 69.9 ± 4.2%, 2.48 ± 0.98 vs 3.51 ± 0,62, 1.76 ± 0.71 vs 3.38 ± 0.92, respectively, p<0.05). 2) In the phase angle analysis of LV, Standard deviation (SD), width of half maximum of phase angle (FWHM), and range of phase angle were significantly increased in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (20.6 + 18.1 vs S.6 + I.8, 22. 5 + 9.2 vs 16.0 + 3.9, 95.7 + 31.7 vs 51.3 + 5.4, respectively, p<0.05). 3) There was no significant difference in EF, PER, PFR between patients with the WolffParkinson-White syndrome and controls. 4) Standard deviation and range of phase angle were significantly higher in patients with WPW syndrome than in controls (10.6 + 2.6 vs 8.6 + 1.8, p<0.05, 69.8 + 11.7 vs 51.3 + 5 4, p<0.001, respectively), however, there was no difference between the two groups in full width of half maximum. 5) Phase image analysis revealed relatively uniform phase across the both ventriles in patients with normal conduction, but markedly delayed phase in the left ventricle

  15. Phase Image Analysis in Conduction Disturbance Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwark, Byeng Su; Choi, Si Wan; Kang, Seung Sik; Park, Ki Nam; Lee, Kang Wook; Jeon, Eun Seok; Park, Chong Hun [Chung Nam University Hospital, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-03-15

    It is known that the normal His-Purkinje system provides for nearly synchronous activation of right (RV) and left (LV) ventricles. When His-Purkinje conduction is abnormal, the resulting sequence of ventricular contraction must be correspondingly abnormal. These abnormal mechanical consequences were difficult to demonstrate because of the complexity and the rapidity of its events. To determine the relationship of the phase changes and the abnormalities of ventricular conduction, we performed phase image analysis of Tc-RBC gated blood pool scintigrams in patients with intraventricular conduction disturbances (24 complete left bundle branch block (C-LBBB), 15 complete right bundle branch block (C-RBBB), 13 Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW), 10 controls). The results were as follows; 1) The ejection fraction (EF), peak ejection rate (PER), and peak filling rate (PFR) of LV in gated blood pool scintigraphy (GBPS) were significantly lower in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (44.4 +- 13.9% vs 69.9 +- 4.2%, 2.48 +- 0.98 vs 3.51 +- 0,62, 1.76 +- 0.71 vs 3.38 +- 0.92, respectively, p<0.05). 2) In the phase angle analysis of LV, Standard deviation (SD), width of half maximum of phase angle (FWHM), and range of phase angle were significantly increased in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (20.6 + 18.1 vs S.6 + I.8, 22. 5 + 9.2 vs 16.0 + 3.9, 95.7 + 31.7 vs 51.3 + 5.4, respectively, p<0.05). 3) There was no significant difference in EF, PER, PFR between patients with the WolffParkinson-White syndrome and controls. 4) Standard deviation and range of phase angle were significantly higher in patients with WPW syndrome than in controls (10.6 + 2.6 vs 8.6 + 1.8, p<0.05, 69.8 + 11.7 vs 51.3 + 5 4, p<0.001, respectively), however, there was no difference between the two groups in full width of half maximum. 5) Phase image analysis revealed relatively uniform phase across the both ventriles in patients with normal conduction, but markedly delayed phase in the left ventricle

  16. On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

    1994-01-01

    The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

  17. How a hurricane disturbance influences extreme CO2 fluxes and variance in a tropical forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas, Rodrigo

    2012-01-01

    A current challenge is to understand what are the legacies left by disturbances on ecosystems for predicting response patterns and trajectories. This work focuses on the ecological implications of a major hurricane and analyzes its influence on forest gross primary productivity (GPP; derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS) and soil CO 2 efflux. Following the hurricane, there was a reduction of nearly 0.5 kgC m −2 yr −1 , equivalent to ∼15% of the long-term mean GPP (∼3.0 ± 0.2 kgC m −2 yr −1 ; years 2003–8). Annual soil CO 2 emissions for the year following the hurricane were > 3.9 ± 0.5 kgC m −2 yr −1 , whereas for the second year emissions were 1.7 ± 0.4 kgC m −2 yr −1 . Higher annual emissions were associated with higher probabilities of days with extreme soil CO 2 efflux rates ( > 9.7 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 ). The variance of GPP was highly variable across years and was substantially increased following the hurricane. Extreme soil CO 2 efflux after the hurricane was associated with deposition of nitrogen-rich fresh organic matter, higher basal soil CO 2 efflux rates and changes in variance of the soil temperature. These results show that CO 2 dynamics are highly variable following hurricanes, but also demonstrate the strong resilience of tropical forests following these events. (letter)

  18. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilpua, E. K. J.; Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J.; Miyahara, H.; Kataoka, R.; Liu, Y. D.

    2015-01-01

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field

  19. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2015-06-20

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

  20. Extreme Value Analysis of Induced Geoelectric Field in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotz, S. I.; Danskin, D. W.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme geomagnetic disturbances occur rarely but can have great impact on technological systems such as power supply networks. Long-term planning for extreme events requires the estimation of event impact for occurrence periods greater than the length of observed data. With this in mind an analysis of extreme geomagnetic events observed in South Africa (middle geomagnetic latitude) is performed over four solar cycles (1974-2015). An algorithm to identify active periods with minimum SYM-H ≤-100 nT is demonstrated. The sum of induced electric field over the course of each event is used to characterize the severity of each active period. It is found that the severity index (accumulated electric field magnitude ΣE) shares a highly linear relationship with accumulated SYM-H over each event. The index ΣE is lognormal distributed, with tail deviating greater than lognormal, confirming heavy-tailed occurrence. A general Pareto distribution is fitted to the tail of the distribution and extrapolated to calculate the return levels of extreme events. Return levels of once in 100 and once in 200 year events are estimated to be 9.4 × 104 mV/km min and 1.09 × 105 mV/km min, respectively. The top three events, in ascending order of severity, are the March 1989 storm, the events of late October 2003, and the April 1994 event—a long interval of coronal-hole driven disturbances, bookended by two intense geomagnetic storms.

  1. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  2. Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

    1997-12-31

    A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

  3. Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2016-01-01

    Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

  4. Factors that influence emotional disturbance in adults living in extreme poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomar-Lever, Joaquina; Victorio-Estrada, Amparo

    2012-04-01

    Living in poverty conditions implies exposure to severe circumstances of social disadvantage, associated with greater propensity to contract illnesses. A negative correlation has consistently been observed between health and poverty. The chronic exposure to stress affects people's well-being through the development of symptoms of anxiety and depression. The suffering of these symptoms for a long time period may be considered as part of a more general syndrome of emotional disturbance, in detriment to a person's mental health. The objective of this study is to identify psychological factors that influence emotional disturbance, measured as symptoms of anxiety and depression, in adults living in poverty conditions in Mexico's central region. A total of 913 adults, 65.2% female, were surveyed. The mean age of the participants was 43.71 (±12.58) years and the mean number of years of schooling was 4.04 (±3.36). Variables corresponding to personal characteristics were measured. The results indicate that the most important risk factor for depression is anxiety and vice versa. Additionally, gender, negative self-esteem, lack of adequate strategies for confronting and resolving difficulties, and lack of self-regulation predicted depression, whereas stress, lack of self-regulation, and coping style predicted anxiety. These variables were better predictors than optimism, locus of control, sense of humor or religiosity. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2011 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

  5. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

    2012-01-01

    by the Cluster spacecraft were best predicted by the 3-D model of Lin et al. (2010). The applied empirical bow shock models and the 3-D semi-empiric bow shock model combined with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solution proved to be insufficient for predicting the observed unusual bow shock locations during large...... interplanetary disturbances. The results of a global 3-D MHD model were in good agreement with the Cluster observations on 17 January 2005, but they did not predict the bow shock crossings on 31 October 2003....... of three magnetopause and four bow shock models which describe them in considerably different ways using statistical methods based on observations. A new 2-D magnetopause model is introduced (based on Verigin et al., 2009) which takes into account the pressure of the compressed magnetosheath field raised...

  6. Four-level time decomposition quasi-static power flow and successive disturbances analysis. [Power system disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jovanovic, S M [Nikola Tesla Inst., Belgrade (YU)

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a model and an appropriate numerical procedure for a four-level time decomposition quasi-static power flow and successive disturbances analysis of power systems. The analysis consists of the sequential computation of the zero, primary, secondary and tertiary quasi-static states and of the estimation of successive structural disturbances during the 1200 s dynamics after a structural disturbance. The model is developed by detailed inspection of the time decomposition characteristics of automatic protection and control devices. Adequate speed of the numerical procedure is attained by a specific application of the inversion matrix lemma and the decoupled model constant coefficient matrices. The four-level time decomposition quasi-static method is intended for security and emergency analysis. (author).

  7. Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile George MARICA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

  8. Stability analysis of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou Qi, E-mail: zhouqilhy@yahoo.com.c [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Xu Shengyuan [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Chen Bing [Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong (China); Li Hongyi [Space Control and Inertial Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Chu Yuming [Department of Mathematics, Huzhou Teacher' s College, Huzhou 313000, Zhejiang (China)

    2009-10-05

    This Letter considers the problem of stability analysis of a class of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances. The delays are assumed to be time-varying and bounded. By utilizing Ito's differential formula and Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, delay-range-dependent and rate-dependent (rate-independent) stability criteria are proposed in terms of linear matrices inequalities. An important feature of the proposed results is that all the stability conditions are dependent on the upper and lower bounds of the delays. Another important feature is that the obtained stability conditions are less conservative than certain existing ones in the literature due to introducing some appropriate free-weighting matrices. A simulation example is employed to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  9. A meta-analysis of soil microbial biomass responses to forest disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Robin Holden

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming is likely to increase the frequency and severity of forest disturbances, with uncertain consequences for soil microbial communities and their contribution to ecosystem C dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we conducted a meta-analysis of 139 published soil microbial responses to forest disturbances. These disturbances included abiotic (fire, harvesting, storm and biotic (insect, pathogen disturbances. We hypothesized that soil microbial biomass would decline following forest disturbances, but that abiotic disturbances would elicit greater reductions in microbial biomass than biotic disturbances. In support of this hypothesis, across all published studies, disturbances reduced soil microbial biomass by an average of 29.4%. However, microbial responses differed between abiotic and biotic disturbances. Microbial responses were significantly negative following fires, harvest, and storms (48.7%, 19.1%, and 41.7% reductions in microbial biomass, respectively. In contrast, changes in soil microbial biomass following insect infestation and pathogen-induced tree mortality were non-significant, although biotic disturbances were poorly represented in the literature. When measured separately, fungal and bacterial responses to disturbances mirrored the response of the microbial community as a whole. Changes in microbial abundance following disturbance were significantly positively correlated with changes in microbial respiration. We propose that the differential effect of abiotic and biotic disturbances on microbial biomass may be attributable to differences in soil disruption and organic C removal from forests among disturbance types. Altogether, these results suggest that abiotic forest disturbances may significantly decrease soil microbial abundance, with corresponding consequences for microbial respiration. Further studies are needed on the effect of biotic disturbances on forest soil microbial communities and soil C dynamics.

  10. ALSAN - A system for disturbance analysis by process computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felkel, L.; Grumbach, R.

    1977-05-01

    The program system ALSAN has been developed to process the large number of signals due to a disturbance in a complex technical process, to recognize the important (in order to settle the disturbance within a minimum amount of time) information, and to display it to the operators. By means of the results, clear decisions can be made on what counteractions have to be taken. The system works in on-line-open-loop mode, and analyses disturbances autonomously as well as in dialog with the operators. (orig.) [de

  11. A Fourier analysis of extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2014-01-01

    The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

  12. Logic flowgraph model for disturbance analysis of a PWR pressurizer system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guarro, S.; Okrent, D.

    1984-01-01

    The Logic Flowgraph Methodology (LFM) has been developed as a synthetic simulation language for process reliability or disturbance analysis applications. A Disturbance Analysis System (DAS) using the LFM models can store the necessary information concerning a given process in an efficient way, and automatically construct in real time the diagnostic tree(s) showing the root cause(s) of occurring disturbances. A comprehensive LFM model for a PWR pressurizer system is presented and discussed, and the latest version of the LFM tree synthesis routine, optimized to achieve reduction of computer memory usage, is used to show the LFM diagnoses of selected hypothetic disturbances

  13. Neuropsychological analysis of a typewriting disturbance following cerebral damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, M; Canter, G J

    1987-01-01

    Following a left CVA, a skilled professional typist sustained a disturbance of typing disproportionate to her handwriting disturbance. Typing errors were predominantly of the sequencing type, with spatial errors much less frequent, suggesting that the impairment was based on a relatively early (premotor) stage of processing. Depriving the subject of visual feedback during handwriting greatly increased her error rate. Similarly, interfering with auditory feedback during speech substantially reduced her self-correction of speech errors. These findings suggested that impaired ability to utilize somesthetic information--probably caused by the subject's parietal lobe lesion--may have been the basis of the typing disorder.

  14. A Comparative Analysis for Selection of Appropriate Mother Wavelet for Detection of Stationary Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamble, Saurabh Prakash; Thawkar, Shashank; Gaikwad, Vinayak G.; Kothari, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Detection of disturbances is the first step of mitigation. Power electronics plays a crucial role in modern power system which makes system operation efficient but it also bring stationary disturbances in the power system and added impurities to the supply. It happens because of the non-linear loads used in modern day power system which inject disturbances like harmonic disturbances, flickers, sag etc. in power grid. These impurities can damage equipments so it is necessary to mitigate these impurities present in the supply very quickly. So, digital signal processing techniques are incorporated for detection purpose. Signal processing techniques like fast Fourier transform, short-time Fourier transform, Wavelet transform etc. are widely used for the detection of disturbances. Among all, wavelet transform is widely used because of its better detection capabilities. But, which mother wavelet has to use for detection is still a mystery. Depending upon the periodicity, the disturbances are classified as stationary and non-stationary disturbances. This paper presents the importance of selection of mother wavelet for analyzing stationary disturbances using discrete wavelet transform. Signals with stationary disturbances of various frequencies are generated using MATLAB. The analysis of these signals is done using various mother wavelets like Daubechies and bi-orthogonal wavelets and the measured root mean square value of stationary disturbance is obtained. The measured value obtained by discrete wavelet transform is compared with the exact RMS value of the frequency component and the percentage differences are presented which helps to select optimum mother wavelet.

  15. Landscape level analysis of disturbance regimes in protected areas ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    G B Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, Almora 263 643, Uttarakhand, India. ... level assessment of fragmentation and disturbance index in protected areas of Rajasthan using remote ..... anthropogenic/natural forces on the landscape was ..... Environmental Research, Engineering and Management.

  16. Body image disturbance in adults treated for cancer - a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoten, Bethany A

    2016-05-01

    To report an analysis of the concept of body image disturbance in adults who have been treated for cancer as a phenomenon of interest to nurses. Although the concept of body image disturbance has been clearly defined in adolescents and adults with eating disorders, adults who have been treated for cancer may also experience body image disturbance. In this context, the concept of body image disturbance has not been clearly defined. Concept analysis. PubMed, Psychological Information Database and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature were searched for publications from 1937 - 2015. Search terms included body image, cancer, body image disturbance, adult and concept analysis. Walker and Avant's 8-step method of concept analysis was used. The defining attributes of body image disturbance in adults who have been treated for cancer are: (1) self-perception of a change in appearance and displeasure with the change or perceived change in appearance; (2) decline in an area of function; and (3) psychological distress regarding changes in appearance and/or function. This concept analysis provides a foundation for the development of multidimensional assessment tools and interventions to alleviate body image disturbance in this population. A better understanding of body image disturbance in adults treated for cancer will assist nurses and other clinicians in identifying this phenomenon and nurse scientists in developing instruments that accurately measure this condition, along with interventions that will promote a better quality of life for survivors. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Adaptive extremal optimization by detrended fluctuation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamacher, K.

    2007-01-01

    Global optimization is one of the key challenges in computational physics as several problems, e.g. protein structure prediction, the low-energy landscape of atomic clusters, detection of community structures in networks, or model-parameter fitting can be formulated as global optimization problems. Extremal optimization (EO) has become in recent years one particular, successful approach to the global optimization problem. As with almost all other global optimization approaches, EO is driven by an internal dynamics that depends crucially on one or more parameters. Recently, the existence of an optimal scheme for this internal parameter of EO was proven, so as to maximize the performance of the algorithm. However, this proof was not constructive, that is, one cannot use it to deduce the optimal parameter itself a priori. In this study we analyze the dynamics of EO for a test problem (spin glasses). Based on the results we propose an online measure of the performance of EO and a way to use this insight to reformulate the EO algorithm in order to construct optimal values of the internal parameter online without any input by the user. This approach will ultimately allow us to make EO parameter free and thus its application in general global optimization problems much more efficient

  18. Statistical analysis on extreme wave height

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Teena, N.V.; SanilKumar, V.; Sudheesh, K.; Sajeev, R.

    -294. • WAFO (2000) – A MATLAB toolbox for analysis of random waves and loads, Lund University, Sweden, homepage http://www.maths.lth.se/matstat/wafo/,2000. 15    Table 1: Statistical results of data and fitted distribution for cumulative distribution...

  19. The effects of memantine on behavioral disturbances in patients with Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kishi T

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Taro Kishi,* Shinji Matsunaga,* Nakao Iwata Department of Psychiatry, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Memantine is effective in the treatment of behavioral disturbances in patients with Alzheimer’s disease. It has not yet been fully determined which behavioral disturbances respond best to memantine.Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of memantine vs control (placebo or usual care for the treatment of individual behavioral disturbances (delusion, hallucination, agitation/aggression, dysphoria, anxiety/phobia, euphoria, apathy, disinhibition, irritability/lability, aberrant motor activity/activity disturbances, nighttime disturbance/diurnal rhythm disturbances, and eating disturbances. Randomized controlled studies of memantine in patients with Alzheimer’s disease were included in this study. To evaluate these outcomes, standardized mean difference (SMD, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs, based upon a random-effects model was evaluated in the meta-analysis.Results: A total of 11 studies (n=4,261; memantine vs placebo: N=4, n=1,500; memantine + cholinesterase inhibitors [M + ChEIs] vs ChEIs: N=7, n=2,761 were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to control, memantine showed significant improvement in agitation/aggression (SMD =-0.11; 95% CIs =-0.20, -0.03; P=0.01; I2=47%, delusion (SMD =-0.12; 95% CIs =-0.18, -0.06; P=0.0002; I2=0%, disinhibition (SMD =-0.08; 95% CIs =-0.15, -0.00; P=0.04; I2=0%, and nighttime disturbance/diurnal rhythm disturbances (SMD =-0.10; 95% CIs =-0.18, -0.02; P=0.02; I2=36%. Memantine was also marginally superior to control in hallucination (SMD =-0.06; 95% CIs =-0.12, 0.01; P=0.07; I2=0% and irritability/lability (SMD =-0.09; 95% CIs =-0.19, 0.01; P=0.07; I2=42%. Memantine is similar to control in dysphoria, anxiety/phobia, euphoria, apathy, and eating disturbance.Conclusion: The meta-analysis suggest

  20. Analysis of the influence of orbital disturbances applied to an artificial lunar satellite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of the orbital disturbance forces in the trajectory of lunar satellites. The following gravitational and non-gravitational orbital disturbances are considered: the non-homogeneity of the lunar gravitational field; the gravitational attraction due to the third body, considering the Earth and the Sun; the lunar albedo; the solar radiation pressure. Numerical models were developed and implemented in an orbital trajectory simulator aiming to understand the dynamics of the orbital motion of an artificial satellite in lunar orbit when considering the simultaneous effect of all disturbances. Different orbits were simulated in order to characterize the major and the minor influence of each disturbing force as function of the inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node. This study can be very useful in the space mission analysis and in the selection of orbits less affected by environmental disturbances. (paper)

  1. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

    2013-09-01

    Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  3. A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA

  4. Analysis of the formation of local cooling disturbances in sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultheiss, G.F.

    1976-09-01

    The aim of this analysis of the formation of local cooling disturbances in sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is to get results on the possible extent of blockages and the time necessary for growth which may be used for a safety evaluation. After an introduction where the thermohydraulic and physical/chemical aspects of the problems are considered, the causes for the local cooling disturbances and the phenomena arising with it are freated in more detail. (orig./TK) [de

  5. Multi-scale location analysis of vulnerabilities and their link to disturbances within digital ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    As computer networks evolve, so too does the techniques used by attackers to exploit new vulnerabilities. Natural ecosystems already have resistant and resilient properties that help protect them from unwanted disturbances despite the existence of different vulnerabilities. Computer networks and their environments can be considered as digital ecosystems with different vulnerabilities, and security attacks can be considered as unwanted disturbances. Analysis of vulnerabilities and attacks from...

  6. Prototype Design and Mission Analysis for a Small Satellite Exploiting Environmental Disturbances for Attitude Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    AND MISSION ANALYSIS FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION by Halis C. Polat March 2016...FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Halis C. Polat 7...need a robust and accurate attitude control system. Due to the mass- and volume-constrained design environment of CubeSat, conventional methods are

  7. Analytical development of disturbed matrix eigenvalue problem applied to mixed convection stability analysis in Darcy media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamed, Haikel Ben; Bennacer, Rachid

    2008-08-01

    This work consists in evaluating algebraically and numerically the influence of a disturbance on the spectral values of a diagonalizable matrix. Thus, two approaches will be possible; to use the theorem of disturbances of a matrix depending on a parameter, due to Lidskii and primarily based on the structure of Jordan of the no disturbed matrix. The second approach consists in factorizing the matrix system, and then carrying out a numerical calculation of the roots of the disturbances matrix characteristic polynomial. This problem can be a standard model in the equations of the continuous media mechanics. During this work, we chose to use the second approach and in order to illustrate the application, we choose the Rayleigh-Bénard problem in Darcy media, disturbed by a filtering through flow. The matrix form of the problem is calculated starting from a linear stability analysis by a finite elements method. We show that it is possible to break up the general phenomenon into other elementary ones described respectively by a disturbed matrix and a disturbance. A good agreement between the two methods was seen. To cite this article: H.B. Hamed, R. Bennacer, C. R. Mecanique 336 (2008).

  8. Hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy with proximal dominancy in the lower extremities, urinary disturbance, and paroxysmal dry cough.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Shiroh; Shibata, Hiroki; Kida, Hiroshi; Noda, Kazuhito; Tomiyasu, Katsuro; Yamamoto, Ken; Iwaki, Akiko; Ayabe, Mitsuyoshi; Aizawa, Hisamichi; Taniwaki, Takayuki; Fukumaki, Yasuyuki

    2008-10-15

    We studied a four-generation pedigree of a Japanese family with hereditary neuropathy to elucidate the genetic basis of this disease. Twelve members of the family were enrolled in this study. The clinical features were neurogenic muscle weakness with proximal dominancy in the lower extremities, sensory involvement, areflexia, fine postural tremors, painful muscle cramps, elevated creatine kinase levels, recurrent paroxysmal dry cough, and neurogenic bladder. We performed a genome-wide search using genetic loci spaced at about 13 Mb intervals. Although nine chromosomes (1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 17, 19, and 22) had at least one region in which the logarithm of odds (LOD) score was over 1.0, no loci fulfilled the criteria for significant evidence of linkage. Moreover, we analyzed an extra 14 markers on 3p12-q13 (the locus of hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy, proximal dominant form) and an extra five markers on 3p22-p24 (the locus of hereditary sensory neuropathy with chronic cough) and observed LOD scores of hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy with autosomal dominant inheritance.

  9. Applied Behavior Analysis: Its Impact on the Treatment of Mentally Retarded Emotionally Disturbed People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, Johnny L.; Coe, David A.

    1992-01-01

    This article reviews applications of the applied behavior analysis ideas of B. F. Skinner and others to persons with both mental retardation and emotional disturbance. The review examines implications of behavior analysis for operant conditioning and radical behaviorism, schedules of reinforcement, and emotion and mental illness. (DB)

  10. Electric power quality analysis methods. Application to voltage dips and harmonic disturbances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanya, Ignatova

    2006-10-01

    The power quality concerns all the actors in the energy domains, that they are network administrators, suppliers, producers, or consumers of electricity. The research work presented in this PhD thesis is situated in the field of the power quality monitoring. Its objective is to introduce new techniques for analysis of power quality problems. There are different methods designed for the analysis of the power quality disturbances. This method reaches very good performances in the voltage dips analysis, as it allows segmenting, classifying and characterising these power quality disturbances. The periodic systems method allows the theoretical study of the generation and the propagation of harmonic disturbances in the network. Finally, the statistical matrix method has the objective to represent statistically electrical signals without loss of important information. (author)

  11. Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Riegl, Bernhard; Berumen, Michael L.; Bruckner, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.

  12. Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Riegl, Bernhard

    2013-03-07

    Coral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.

  13. Sleep Disturbance, Daytime Symptoms, and Functional Performance in Patients With Stable Heart Failure: A Mediation Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Sangchoon; Redeker, Nancy S

    2016-01-01

    Sleep disturbance is common among patients with heart failure (HF) who also experience symptom burden and poor functional performance. We evaluated the extent to which sleep-related, daytime symptoms (fatigue, excessive daytime sleepiness, and depressive symptoms) mediate the relationship between sleep disturbance and functional performance among patients with stable HF. We recruited patients with stable HF for this secondary analysis of data from a cross-sectional, observational study. Participants completed unattended ambulatory polysomnography from which the Respiratory Disturbance Index was calculated, along with a Six-Minute Walk Test, questionnaires to elicit sleep disturbance (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Insomnia Symptoms from the Sleep Habits Questionnaire), daytime symptoms (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, Global Fatigue Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale), and self-reported functional performance (Medical Outcomes Study SF36 V2 Physical Function Scale). We used structural equation modeling with latent variables for the key analysis. Follow-up, exploratory regression analysis with bootstrapped samples was used to examine the extent to which individual daytime symptoms mediated effects of sleep disturbance on functional performance after controlling for clinical and demographic covariates. The sample included 173 New York Heart Association Class I-IV HF patients (n = 60/34.7% women; M = 60.7, SD = 16.07 years of age). Daytime symptoms mediated the relationship between sleep disturbance and functional performance. Fatigue and depression mediated the relationship between insomnia symptoms and self-reported functional performance, whereas fatigue and sleepiness mediated the relationship between sleep quality and functional performance. Sleepiness mediated the relationship between the respiratory index and self-reported functional performance only in people who did not report insomnia. Daytime symptoms explain the relationships between sleep

  14. An artificial intelligence approach towards disturbance analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindner, A.; Klebau, J.; Fielder, U.; Baldeweg, F.

    1987-01-01

    The scale and degree of sophistication of technological plants, e.g. nuclear power plants, have been essentially increased during the last decades. Conventional disturbance analysis systems have proved to work successfully in wellknown situations. But in cases of emergencies, the operator staff needs a more advanced assistance in realizing diagnosis and therapy control. The significance of introducing artificial intelligence methods in nuclear power technology is emphasized. Main features of the on-line disturbance analysis system SAAP-2 are reported about. It is being developed for application in nuclear power plants. 9 refs. (author)

  15. Application of Extreme Value Theory to Crash Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lan; Nusholtz, Guy

    2017-11-01

    A parametric model obtained by fitting a set of data to a function generally uses a procedure such as maximum likelihood or least squares. In general this will generate the best estimate for the distribution of the data overall but will not necessarily generate a reasonable estimation for the tail of the distribution unless the function fitted resembles the underlying distribution function. A distribution function can represent an estimate that is significantly different from the actual tail data, while the bulk of the data is reasonably represented by the central part of the fitted distribution. Extreme value theory can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of the fitted function in the tail region. In this study the peak-over-threshold approach from the extreme value theory was utilized to show that it is possible to obtain a better fit of the tail of a distribution than the procedures that use the entire distribution only. Additional constraints, on the current use of the extreme value approach with respect to the selection of the threshold (an estimate of the beginning of the tail region) that minimize the sensitivity to individual data samples associated with the tail section as well as contamination from the central distribution are used. Once the threshold is determined, the maximum likelihood method was used to fit the exceedances with the Generalized Pareto Distribution to obtain the tail distribution. The approach was then used in the analysis of airbag inflator pressure data from tank tests, crash velocity distribution and mass distribution from the field crash data (NASS). From the examples, the extreme (tail) distributions were better estimated with the Generalized Pareto Distribution, than a single overall distribution, along with the probability of the occurrence for a given extreme value, or a rare observation such as a high speed crash. It was concluded that the peak-over-threshold approach from extreme value theory can be a useful tool in

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  17. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXTREMAL PROBLEMS IN ARBITRARY DOMAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samokhin Mikhail Vasilevich

    2012-10-01

    The author considers the problems concerning where B is either a unit sphere in the (D space or one of the classes , p>1. He shows the possibility of the results concerning the characteristic of extreme functions, their uniqueness, the possilble presentation of the functions from the classes and with the use of the Cauchy-Stieltjes integrals in the component of the D\\ suppµ set and the boundary behavior of an extreme function from the (D class. One should note that the given mathematical system can be implemented for making decisions in the field of construction engineering and structural analysis, it can provide research assistants and engineers with the background necessary for developing sound solutions and rational proposals.

  18. Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

  19. The impact of an extreme climatic disturbance and different fertilization treatments on plant development, phenology, and yield of two cultivar groups of Solanum betaceum Cav.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joffre V Tandazo-Yunga

    Full Text Available Changing climatic conditions impose a challenge both to biodiversity and food security. The effects of climate change affect different aspects of the plant or crop, such as morphological and phenological aspects, as well as yield. The effects of greenhouse conditions might be comparable in some cases to a permanent extreme disturbance in climate and weather, thus, contributing to our knowledge on climate change impacts on plant species. We have investigated the differences for 23 traits in two cultivar groups of an Andean traditional crop, Solanum betaceum, under two different environmental conditions that correspond to the traditional practices in the open field and three cultural managements under greenhouse conditions (no fertilization or control, organic, and mineral. We found that traditional practices in the open field are the less productive. Moreover, in warmer and drier conditions the treatment with organic fertilization was the most productive. Greenhouse conditions, however, delay production. We further identified traits that differentiate both cultivar groups and traits that are linked to either the new climate conditions or the fertilization treatments. Fruit characteristics were quite homogeneous between the two cultivar groups. Overall, our results provide insight on the consequences that climate change effects might exert on crops such as tree tomato, reveal that greenhouses can be a robust alternative for tree tomato production, and highlight the need to understand how different managements are linked to different solutions to fulfil the farmers' demands.

  20. Extreme learning machine for ranking: generalization analysis and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong; Peng, Jiangtao; Zhou, Yicong; Li, Luoqing; Pan, Zhibin

    2014-05-01

    The extreme learning machine (ELM) has attracted increasing attention recently with its successful applications in classification and regression. In this paper, we investigate the generalization performance of ELM-based ranking. A new regularized ranking algorithm is proposed based on the combinations of activation functions in ELM. The generalization analysis is established for the ELM-based ranking (ELMRank) in terms of the covering numbers of hypothesis space. Empirical results on the benchmark datasets show the competitive performance of the ELMRank over the state-of-the-art ranking methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  2. PM10 Analysis for Three Industrialized Areas using Extreme Value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasfazilah Ahmat; Ahmad Shukri Yahaya; Nor Azam Ramli; Hasfazilah Ahmat

    2015-01-01

    One of the concerns of the air pollution studies is to compute the concentrations of one or more pollutants' species in space and time in relation to the independent variables, for instance emissions into the atmosphere, meteorological factors and parameters. One of the most significant statistical disciplines developed for the applied sciences and many other disciplines for the last few decades is the extreme value theory (EVT). This study assesses the use of extreme value distributions of the two-parameter Gumbel, two and three-parameter Weibull, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and two and three-parameter Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) on the maximum concentration of daily PM10 data recorded in the year 2010 - 2012 in Pasir Gudang, Johor; Bukit Rambai, Melaka; and Nilai, Negeri Sembilan. Parameters for all distributions are estimated using the Method of Moments (MOM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). Six performance indicators namely; the accuracy measures which include predictive accuracy (PA), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Index of Agreement (IA) and error measures that consist of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Normalized Absolute Error (NAE) are used to find the goodness-of-fit of the distribution. The best distribution is selected based on the highest accuracy measures and the smallest error measures. The results showed that the GEV is the best fit for daily maximum concentration for PM10 for all monitoring stations. The analysis also demonstrates that the estimated numbers of days in which the concentration of PM10 exceeded the Malaysian Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (MAAQG) of 150 mg/ m"3 are between 1/2 and 11/2 days. (author)

  3. Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

    2004-01-01

    .... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

  4. Propagating Disturbances in Coronal Loops: A Detailed Analysis of Propagation Speeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiddie, G.; De Moortel, I.; Del Zanna, G.; McIntosh, S. W.; Whittaker, I.

    2012-08-01

    Quasi-periodic disturbances have been observed in the outer solar atmosphere for many years. Although first interpreted as upflows (Schrijver et al., Solar Phys. 187, 261, 1999), they have been widely regarded as slow magneto-acoustic waves, due to their observed velocities and periods. However, recent observations have questioned this interpretation, as periodic disturbances in Doppler velocity, line width, and profile asymmetry were found to be in phase with the intensity oscillations (De Pontieu and McIntosh, Astrophys. J. 722, 1013, 2010; Tian, McIntosh, and De Pontieu, Astrophys. J. Lett. 727, L37, 2011), suggesting that the disturbances could be quasi-periodic upflows. Here we conduct a detailed analysis of the velocities of these disturbances across several wavelengths using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We analysed 41 examples, including both sunspot and non-sunspot regions of the Sun. We found that the velocities of propagating disturbances (PDs) located at sunspots are more likely to be temperature dependent, whereas the velocities of PDs at non-sunspot locations do not show a clear temperature dependence. This suggests an interpretation in terms of slow magneto-acoustic waves in sunspots but the nature of PDs in non-sunspot (plage) regions remains unclear. We also considered on what scale the underlying driver is affecting the properties of the PDs. Finally, we found that removing the contribution due to the cooler ions in the 193 Å wavelength suggests that a substantial part of the 193 Å emission of sunspot PDs can be attributed to the cool component of 193 Å.

  5. Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Dentale

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS, generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.

  6. Growth Curve Analysis and Change-Points Detection in Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Rui

    2016-05-15

    The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed

  7. Integrated disturbance analysis (IDA): A basis for expert systems in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastl, W.

    1987-01-01

    In the framework of a project sponsored by the Bundesminister fur Forschung und Technologie (BMFT) and the Rheinisch-Westfalisches Elektrizitatswerk AG (RWE) the concept of Integrated Disturbance Analysis (IDA) has been developed and applied to the Biblis Unit B Nuclear Power Plant. Rather than using the classical approach, which aims at finding the cause of a plant disturbance, the main goal was to make transparent to the operator what it really means for the process, when a set of parameters begins to deviate from its normal state. Therefore the goal was to help the operator to combine the information on the individual process parameters to the complete picture of the evolving transient, thus facilitating the decision about the importance of a disturbance for operational safety. Considering this goal the most important subjects taken care of were: to extend event sequence analysis by means of analog information; to provide adequate modelling of time dependent processes and feedback loops; to integrate IDA information effectively into the existing control room environment

  8. Partial analysis of wind power limit for large disturbance using fixed speed wind turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos Fuentefria, Ariel; Cairo Rodriguez, Daniel; Boza Valerino, Juan Gualberto

    2014-01-01

    The amount of wind power that allow an electric network without losing his stability as known as wind power limit. The wind power limit fundamentally depends on the wind turbine technology and the weakness level of the system. To know the system behaviors in dynamic performance having into account the worst disturbance is a very important matter, a short circuit in one of the most power transference line or the loss of a large generation unit was a large disturbance that can affect system stability. The wind power limit may change with the nature of the disturbance. To know the wind power limit considering this conditions allow use the wind at maximum level. In the present paper the behavior of fixed speed wind turbine for different fault types is analyzed, at those conditions, the wind power is increasing until the system become voltage unstable. For the analysis the IEEE 14 Bus Test Case is used. The Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT) package is used for the simulation. (author)

  9. Disturbance analysis and surveillance system scoping and feasibility system. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowling, E.F.; Benedict, B.J.; Snidow, N.L.

    1981-05-01

    This report summarizes the results of a disturbance analysis and surveillance system (DASS) scoping and feasibility study conducted by The Babcock and Wilcox Company, Burns and Roe, Incorporated, General Physics Corporation, and Duke Power Company for Sandia Laboratories and the US Department of Energy. The report addresses selection of DASS goals and functions, development of a design concept for a DASS based on monitoring the nuclear plant subsystem functions and states against predetermined targets, and creation of engineering procedures for the design and implementation of a DASS. The validity of the procedures is evaluated based on application to a subset of the DASS functions. It is concluded that the DASS design concept is a feasible, systematic, and modular approach to plant disturbance identification

  10. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    a seasonal cycle for each quantile of the distribution, which can be used for a fully data-adaptive definition of extremes as exceedances above this time-dependent quantile function. (2) Having thus identified the extreme events, their distribution is analyzed in both space and time. Following a procedure recently proposed by Lloyd-Hughes (2012) and further exploited by Zscheischler et al. (2013), extremes observed at neighboring points in space and time are considered to form connected sets. Investigating the size distribution of these sets provides novel insights into the development and dynamical characteristics of spatio-temporally extended climate and ecosystem extremes. (3) Finally, the timing of such spatio-temporally extended extremes in different climatic as well as ecological variables is tested pairwise to rule out that co-occurrences of extremes have emerged solely due to chance. For this purpose, the recently developed framework of coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2011; Rammig et al. 2014) is applied. The corresponding analysis allows identifying potential causal linkages between climatic extremes and extreme ecosystem responses and, thus, to study their mechanisms and spatial as well as seasonal distribution in great detail. In this work, the described method is exemplified by using different climate data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis as well as remote sensing-based land surface temperature data. References: Donges et al., PNAS, 108, 20422, 2011 Lloyd-Hughes, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 406, 2012 Rammig et al., Biogeosc. Disc., 11, 2537, 2014 Zscheischler et al., Ecol. Inform., 15, 66, 2013

  11. Three-dimensional analysis of the anatomical growth response of European conifers to mechanical disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneuwly, Dominique M; Stoffel, Markus; Dorren, Luuk K A; Berger, Frédéric

    2009-10-01

    Studies on tree reaction after wounding were so far based on artificial wounding or chemical treatment. For the first time, type, spread and intensity of anatomical responses were analyzed and quantified in naturally disturbed Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Abies alba Mill. trees. The consequences of rockfall impacts on increment growth were assessed at the height of the wounds, as well as above and below the injuries. A total of 16 trees were selected on rockfall slopes, and growth responses following 54 wounding events were analyzed on 820 cross-sections. Anatomical analysis focused on the occurrence of tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts (TRD) and on the formation of reaction wood. Following mechanical disturbance, TRD production was observed in 100% of L. decidua and P. abies wounds. The radial extension of TRD was largest at wound height, and they occurred more commonly above, rather than below, the wounds. For all species, an intra-annual radial shift of TRD was observed with increasing axial distance from wounds. Reaction wood was formed in 87.5% of A. alba following wounding, but such cases occurred only in 7.7% of L. decidua. The results demonstrate that anatomical growth responses following natural mechanical disturbance differ significantly from the reactions induced by artificial stimuli or by decapitation. While the types of reactions remain comparable between the species, their intensity, spread and persistence disagree considerably. We also illustrate that the external appearance of wounds does not reflect an internal response intensity. This study reveals that disturbance induced under natural conditions triggers more intense and more widespread anatomical responses than that induced under artificial stimuli, and that experimental laboratory tests considerably underestimate tree response.

  12. Analysis of ionospheric disturbances associated with powerful cyclones in East Asia and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wang; Yue, Jianping; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhen; Guo, Jinyun; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Kefei

    2017-08-01

    East Asia and North America are the regions most heavily affected by powerful cyclones. In this paper we investigate the morphological characteristics of ionospheric disturbances induced by cyclones in different continents. The global ionosphere map supplied by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), International Reference Ionosphere Model (IRI) 2012, and Wallops Island ionosonde station data are used to analyse the ionospheric variations during powerful typhoons/hurricanes in East Asia and North America, respectively. After eliminating the ionospheric anomalies due to the solar-terrestrial environment, the total electron content (TEC) time series over the point with maximum wind speed is detected by the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate that significant ionospheric disturbances are observed during powerful tropical cyclones in East Asia and North America, respectively, and that all the ionospheric anomalies are positive. In addition, the extent and magnitude of travelling ionospheric disturbances are associated with the category of tropical cyclone, and the extent of TEC anomalies in longitude is more pronounced than that in latitude. Furthermore, the maximum ionospheric anomaly does not coincide with the eye of the storm, but appears in the region adjacent to the centre. This implies that ionospheric disturbances at the edges of cyclones are larger than those in the eye of the winds. The phenomenon may be associated with the gravity waves which are generated by strong convective cells that occur in the spiral arms of tropical cyclones. This comprehensive analysis suggests that the presence of powerful typhoons/hurricanes may be a possible source mechanism for ionospheric anomalies.

  13. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  14. Performance analysis for bounded persistent disturbances in PD/PID-controlled robotic systems with its experimental demonstrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jung Hoon; Hur, Sung-Moon; Oh, Yonghwan

    2018-03-01

    This paper is concerned with performance analysis of proportional-derivative/proportional-integral-derivative (PD/PID) controller for bounded persistent disturbances in a robotic manipulator. Even though the notion of input-to-state stability (ISS) has been widely used to deal with the effect of disturbances in control of a robotic manipulator, the corresponding studies cannot be directly applied to the treatment of persistent disturbances occurred in robotic manipulators. This is because the conventional studies relevant to ISS consider the H∞ performance for robotic systems, which is confined to the treatment of decaying disturbances, i.e. the disturbances those in the L2 space. To deal with the effect of persistent disturbances in robotic systems, we first provide a new treatment of ISS in the L∞ sense because bounded persistent disturbances should be intrinsically regarded as elements of the L∞ space. We next derive state-space representations of trajectory tracking control in the robotic systems which allow us to define the problem formulations more clearly. We then propose a novel control law that has a PD/PID control form, by which the trajectory tracking system satisfies the reformulated ISS. Furthermore, we can obtain a theoretical argument about the L∞ gain from the disturbance to the regulated output through the proposed control law. Finally, experimental studies for a typical 3-degrees of freedom robotic manipulator are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method introduced in this paper.

  15. Sleep Disturbance, Sleep Duration, and Inflammation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies and Experimental Sleep Deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Michael R; Olmstead, Richard; Carroll, Judith E

    2016-07-01

    Sleep disturbance is associated with inflammatory disease risk and all-cause mortality. Here, we assess global evidence linking sleep disturbance, sleep duration, and inflammation in adult humans. A systematic search of English language publications was performed, with inclusion of primary research articles that characterized sleep disturbance and/or sleep duration or performed experimental sleep deprivation and assessed inflammation by levels of circulating markers. Effect sizes (ES) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were extracted and pooled using a random effect model. A total of 72 studies (n > 50,000) were analyzed with assessment of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα). Sleep disturbance was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .12; 95% CI = .05-.19) and IL-6 (ES .20; 95% CI = .08-.31). Shorter sleep duration, but not the extreme of short sleep, was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .09; 95% CI = .01-.17) but not IL-6 (ES .03; 95% CI: -.09 to .14). The extreme of long sleep duration was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .17; 95% CI = .01-.34) and IL-6 (ES .11; 95% CI = .02-20). Neither sleep disturbances nor sleep duration was associated with TNFα. Neither experimental sleep deprivation nor sleep restriction was associated with CRP, IL-6, or TNFα. Some heterogeneity among studies was found, but there was no evidence of publication bias. Sleep disturbance and long sleep duration, but not short sleep duration, are associated with increases in markers of systemic inflammation. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Parallel multiple instance learning for extremely large histopathology image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Li, Yeshu; Shen, Zhengyang; Wu, Ziwei; Gao, Teng; Fan, Yubo; Lai, Maode; Chang, Eric I-Chao

    2017-08-03

    Histopathology images are critical for medical diagnosis, e.g., cancer and its treatment. A standard histopathology slice can be easily scanned at a high resolution of, say, 200,000×200,000 pixels. These high resolution images can make most existing imaging processing tools infeasible or less effective when operated on a single machine with limited memory, disk space and computing power. In this paper, we propose an algorithm tackling this new emerging "big data" problem utilizing parallel computing on High-Performance-Computing (HPC) clusters. Experimental results on a large-scale data set (1318 images at a scale of 10 billion pixels each) demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for low-latency real-time applications. The framework proposed an effective and efficient system for extremely large histopathology image analysis. It is based on the multiple instance learning formulation for weakly-supervised learning for image classification, segmentation and clustering. When a max-margin concept is adopted for different clusters, we obtain further improvement in clustering performance.

  17. Small disturbance voltage stability assessment of power systems by modal analysis and dynamic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Ansari, Mohammad Reza

    2008-01-01

    The introduction of liberalized electricity markets in many countries has resulted in more highly stressed power systems. On the other hand, operating points of a power system are acceptable in the feasible region, which is surrounded by the borders of different stabilities. Power system instability is critical for all participants of the electricity market. Determination of different stability margins can result in the optimum utilization of power system with minimum risk. This paper focuses on the small disturbance voltage stability, which is an important subset of the power system global stability. This kind of voltage stability is usually evaluated by static analysis tools such as continuation power flow, while it essentially has dynamic nature. Besides, a combination of linear and nonlinear analysis tools is required to correctly analyze it. In this paper, a hybrid evaluation method composed of static, dynamic, linear, and nonlinear analysis tools is proposed for this purpose. Effect of load scenario, generation pattern, branch and generator contingency on the small disturbance voltage stability are evaluated by the hybrid method. The test results are given for New England and IEEE68 bus test systems. (author)

  18. Directional analysis of extreme winds under mixed climate conditions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, A

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Directional statistics provide design engineers with the opportunity to realise considerable cost savings, but these are not yet provided for in the South African standard for wind loading. The development of the directional statistics of extreme...

  19. Disturbing forest disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volney, W.J.A.; Hirsch, K.G. [Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-10-01

    This paper described the role that disturbances play in maintaining the ecological integrity of Canadian boreal forests. Potential adaptation options to address the challenges that these disturbances present were also examined. Many forest ecosystems need fire for regeneration, while other forests rely on a cool, wet disintegration process driven by insects and commensal fungi feeding on trees to effect renewal. While there are characteristic natural, temporal and spatial patterns to these disturbances, recent work has demonstrated that the disturbances are being perturbed by climatic change that has been compounded by anthropogenic disturbances in forests. Fire influences species composition and age structure, regulates forest insects and diseases, affects nutrient cycling and energy fluxes, and maintains the productivity of different habitats. Longer fire seasons as a result of climatic change will lead to higher intensity fires that may more easily evade initial attacks and become problematic. Fire regimes elevated beyond the range of natural variation will have a dramatic effect on the regional distribution and functioning of forest ecosystems and pose a threat to the safety and prosperity of people. While it was acknowledged that if insect outbreaks were to be controlled on the entire forest estate, the productivity represented by dead wood would be lost, it was suggested that insects such as the forest tent caterpillar and the spruce bud worm may also pose a greater threat as the climate gets warmer and drier. Together with fungal associates, saproxylic arthropods are active in nutrient cycling and ultimately determine the fertility of forest sites. It was suggested that the production of an age class structure and forest mosaic would render the forest landscape less vulnerable to the more negative aspects of climate change on vegetation response. It was concluded that novel management design paradigms are needed to successfully reduce the risk from threats

  20. Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

    2017-07-01

    Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

  1. Interventions Employed with Students with Emotional Disturbance: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wery, Jessica J.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to synthesize research studies that examined interventions used with students with emotional disturbance. Specific goals were to determine the extent to which interventions improve outcomes for students with emotional disturbance, whether emotional disturbance characteristics are related to the effectiveness of…

  2. Analysis of amplitude-phase disturbances of Wolf's numbers rhythmic structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojchishin, K.S.

    1978-01-01

    Statistical analysis of Wolf's number rhythmic structure has been carried out. Wolf's number time series is considered as a stochastic signal with irregular disturbances of rhythmic structure appearing because of random variability of single cycle parameters. A method and an algorythm for transforming the signal, to reduce all quasi-eleven-year cycles of mean-monthly Wolf's numbers to a signal mean duration, to find out and to eliminate rhythmic phase disturbances, are proposed. An estimate of the accuracy of the procedure is given. The results of calculations (on the mean duration range of cycles) of estimates of their mathematical expectation, dispersion and correlation function depending on time and its shift are given. The conclusion that Wolf's number time series may be treated as a sequence of stochastic cycles with randomly varying amplitude, duration and phase is grounded. A possibility for reducing the forecast of smoothed mean-monthly Wolf's numbers for one or more cycles ahead to the forecast of only three abovementioned parameters is pointed out

  3. Retrospective analysis of bottlenose dolphin foraging: a legacy of anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Sam; Barros, Nélio B.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Stricker, Craig A.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Gandhi, Hasand; Wells, Randall S.

    2013-01-01

    We used stable isotope analysis to investigate the foraging ecology of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in relation to a series of anthropogenic disturbances. We first demonstrated that stable isotopes are a faithful indicator of habitat use by comparing muscle isotope values to behavioral foraging data from the same individuals. δ13C values increased, while δ34S and δ15N values decreased with the percentage of feeding observations in seagrass habitat. We then utilized stable isotope values of muscle to assess temporal variation in foraging habitat from 1991 to 2010 and collagen from tooth crown tips to assess the time period 1944 to 2007. From 1991 to 2010, δ13C values of muscle decreased while δ34S values increased indicating reduced utilization of seagrass habitat. From 1944 to 1989 δ13C values of the crown tip declined significantly, likely due to a reduction in the coverage of seagrass habitat and δ15N values significantly increased, a trend we attribute to nutrient loading from a rapidly increasing human population. Our results demonstrate the utility of using marine mammal foraging habits to retrospectively assess the extent to which anthropogenic disturbance impacts coastal food webs.

  4. Bivariate extreme value with application to PM10 concentration analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Nor Azrita Mohd; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

    2015-05-01

    This study is focus on a bivariate extreme of renormalized componentwise maxima with generalized extreme value distribution as a marginal function. The limiting joint distribution of several parametric models are presented. Maximum likelihood estimation is employed for parameter estimations and the best model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion. The weekly and monthly componentwise maxima series are extracted from the original observations of daily maxima PM10 data for two air quality monitoring stations located in Pasir Gudang and Johor Bahru. The 10 years data are considered for both stations from year 2001 to 2010. The asymmetric negative logistic model is found as the best fit bivariate extreme model for both weekly and monthly maxima componentwise series. However the dependence parameters show that the variables for weekly maxima series is more dependence to each other compared to the monthly maxima.

  5. Covered Interest-Rate Parity Revisited: an Extreme Value Copula Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikel Ugando-Peñate

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article studied the covered interest-rate parity (CIP condition under extreme market movements using extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to characterize dependence between extreme interest rate differentials and forward premium. The empirical analysis for the CIP between interest rates for the US dollar and the British pound indicates that there is strong co-movement between interest rate differentials and forward premium at different maturities and in both upper and lower tails. This conclusion would support the existence of the CIP condition under extreme market movements.

  6. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  7. Causal Analysis of the Unanticipated Extremity Exposure at HFEF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David E. James; Charles R. Posegate; Thomas P. Zahn; Alan G. Wagner

    2011-11-01

    This report covers the unintended extremity exposure to an operator while handling a metallurgical mount sample of irradiated fuel following an off-scale high beta radiation reading of the sample. The decision was made to continue working after the meter indicated high off-scale by the HPT Supervisor, which resulted in the operator at the next operation being exposed.

  8. Zero-Crossing Disturbance Elimination and Spectrum Analysis of Single-Carrier Seven-Level SPWM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Fengjiang; Feng, Fan; Duan, Jiandong

    2015-01-01

    the same comparison logics of the MWs and carrier during positive and negative half cycles of the MWs. Thus, it is implemented with only one digital signal processor chip without any other attached logical circuit or controller. The reason for generating the zero-crossing voltage pulse disturbance (ZCVPD......) in this strategy is analyzed, and the elimination of the ZCVPD is proposed and verified by experimental results. The spectral characters of the conventional multi-MW-based SPWM and the proposed one are originally derived and compared with each other by simulation in detail. The theoretical analysis, simulation......, and experimental results indicate that the output characters of the proposed strategy are identical to those of the conventional one; it means that the proposed strategy can replace the conventional one while with the benefit of significantly reducing the cost and bulk of the implemental platform....

  9. Analysis of Applicability of Flow Averaging Pitot Tubes in the Areas of Flow Disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pochwała Sławomir

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The issues connected with the complex design of various facilities, including up-to-date boiler equipment as well as the ways of organizing the space around them, are the reasons why there is often a lack of room for mounting a flowmeter in accordance with the recommendations of manufacturers. In most cases the problem is associated with ensuring sufficient lengths of straight pipe leading into and out of a flowmeter. When this condition cannot be fulfilled, the uncertainty of measurement increases above the value guaranteed by the manufacturer of the flowmeter. This sort of operation problem has encouraged the authors of this paper to undertake research aimed at the analysis of applicability of averaging Pitot tubes in the areas of flow disturbance.

  10. Modelling of nuclear power plant control and instrumentation elements for automatic disturbance and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.

    1985-08-01

    Present Final Report summarizes results of R/D work done within IAEA-VEIKI (Institute for Electrical Power Research, Budapest, Hungary) Research Contract No. 3210 during 3 years' period of 01.08.1982 - 31.08.1985. Chapter 1 lists main research objectives of the project. Main results obtained are summarized in Chapters 2 and 3. Outcomes from development of failure modelling methodologies and their application for C/I components of WWER-440 units are as follows (Chapter 2): improvement of available ''failure mode and effect analysis'' methods and mini-fault tree structures usable for automatic disturbance (DAS) and reliability (RAS) analysis; general classification and determination of functional failure modes of WWER-440 NPP C/I components; set up of logic models for motor operated control valves and rod control/drive mechanism. Results of development of methods and their application for reliability modelling of NPP components and systems cover (Chapter 3): development of an algorithm (computer code COMPREL) for component-related failure and reliability parameter calculation; reliability analysis of PAKS II NPP diesel system; definition of functional requirements for reliability data bank (RDB) in WWER-440 units. Determination of RDB input/output data structure and data manipulation services. Methods used are a-priori failure mode and effect analysis, combined fault tree/event tree modelling technique, structural computer programming, probability theory application to nuclear field

  11. Nonlinear modelling and dynamic stability analysis of a flexible Cartesian robotic manipulator with base disturbance and terminal load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ju

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The flexible Cartesian robotic manipulator (FCRM is coming into widespread application in industry. Because of the feeble rigidity and heavy deflection, the dynamic characteristics of the FCRM are easily influenced by external disturbances which mainly concentrate in the driving end and the load end. Thus, with the influence of driving base disturbance and terminal load considered, the motion differential equations of the FCRM under the plane motion of the base are constructed, which contain the forced and non-linear parametric excitations originated from the disturbances of base lateral and axial motion respectively. Considering the relationship between the coefficients of the motion differential equations and the mode shapes of the flexible manipulator, the analytic expressions of the mode shapes with terminal load are deduced. Then, based on multiple scales method and rectangular coordinate transformation, the average equations of the FCRM are derived to analyze the influence mechanism of base disturbance and terminal load on the system parametric vibration stability. The results show that terminal load mainly affects the node locations of mode shapes and mode frequencies of the FCRM, and the axial motion disturbance of the driving base introduces parametric excitation while the lateral motion disturbance generates forced excitation for the transverse vibration model of the FCRM. Furthermore, with the increase of the base excitation acceleration and terminal load, the parametric vibration instability region of the FCRM increases significantly. This study will be helpful for the dynamic characteristics analysis and vibration control of the FCRM.

  12. ANALYSIS OF DISTURBANCE TORQUE INFLUENCE ON CRITICAL STATE IN ROTATIONAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogumił CHILIŃSKI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Currently most of existing means of transport contains different types of rotational systems. In many cases the dynamics of such rotors substantially can influence exploitation of the whole vehicle. Moreover, in order to minimize mass of the whole object modern construction materials are applied. This causes that the dynamic phenomena may be fundamental of exploitation. The paper presents preliminary analysis of disturbance torque influence on critical state in rotational system. The consideration assumed simple physical object in the form of heavy disk embedded on weightless, elastic shaft. The shaft was supported on two bearings. In particular chapters of paper, path leading from proposition of physical model, by solution of it, to qualitative conclusions about considered object and torque disturbances influence of motion of this system, was presented. In introduction, outline of considered problem and potential opportunities of it, were demonstrated. In the next chapter, physical and mathematical model of the analysed object, was described. Next and also the last but one chapter gives a detailed discussion of mathematical model in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations proposed earlier. The first part of the chapter presents the possibility to solve such a problem, then it shows the simplifications which are used. Furthermore, the influence of used simplifications on the shape of analysed problem was demonstrated. Additionally, the possibility of equations solution presented in the paper was discussed. Moreover, the series of interesting properties of analysed system of equations has been shown based on founded approximate solutions. The whole paper was summarized with plans for future work and synthetic conclusions concerning the innovative control method of critical states.

  13. Analysis of haemodynamic disturbance in the atherosclerotic carotid artery using computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchall, Daniel; Zaman, Azfar; Hacker, Jacob; Davies, Gavin; Mendelow, David

    2006-01-01

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides a means for the quantitative analysis of haemodynamic disturbances in vivo, but most work has used phantoms or idealised geometry. Our purpose was to use CFD to analyse flow in carotid atherosclerosis using patient-specific geometry and flow data. Eight atherosclerotic carotid arteries and one healthy control artery were imaged with magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and duplex ultrasound, and the data used to construct patient-specific computational models used for CFD and wall shear stress (WSS) analysis. There is a progressive change in three-dimensional (3-D) velocity profile and WSS profile with increasing severity of stenosis, characterised by increasing restriction of areas of low WSS, change in oscillation patterns, and progressive rise in WSS within stenoses and downstream jets. Areas of turbulent, retrograde flow and of low WSS are demonstrated in the lee of the stenoses. This study presents the largest CFD analysis of abnormal haemodynamics at the atheromatous carotid bifurcation using patient-specific data and provides the basis for further investigation of causal links between haemodynamic variables and atherogenesis and formation of unstable plaque. We propose that this provides a means for the prospective assessment of relative stroke risk in patients with carotid atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  14. ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC DISTURBANCE REGIMES IN STREAMS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streamflow variability is an important component of physical disturbance in streams, and is likely to be a major organizing feature of habitat for stream fishes. The disturbance regime in streams is frequently described by the variability in streamflow from both floods and prolo...

  15. Swarm: Recent Progress in Analysis of the Sun Induced Magnetic Disturbance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøffner-Clausen, Lars; Lesur, Vincent; Brauer, Peter

    The ESA Earth Observation Magnetic Mission Swarm carries high precision vector and scalar magnetometers. Careful analyses have revealed s smaller, Sun driven magnetic disturbance of the vector magnetometer. This disturbance have been imperically mapped and corrected since mid 2015. This work...

  16. Improved Extreme Learning Machine based on the Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Licheng; Zhai, Huawei; Wang, Benchao; Qu, Zengtang

    2018-03-01

    Extreme learning machine and its improved ones is weak in some points, such as computing complex, learning error and so on. After deeply analyzing, referencing the importance of hidden nodes in SVM, an novel analyzing method of the sensitivity is proposed which meets people’s cognitive habits. Based on these, an improved ELM is proposed, it could remove hidden nodes before meeting the learning error, and it can efficiently manage the number of hidden nodes, so as to improve the its performance. After comparing tests, it is better in learning time, accuracy and so on.

  17. Statistical analysis of extreme values from insurance, finance, hydrology and other fields

    CERN Document Server

    Reiss, Rolf-Dieter

    1997-01-01

    The statistical analysis of extreme data is important for various disciplines, including hydrology, insurance, finance, engineering and environmental sciences. This book provides a self-contained introduction to the parametric modeling, exploratory analysis and statistical interference for extreme values. The entire text of this third edition has been thoroughly updated and rearranged to meet the new requirements. Additional sections and chapters, elaborated on more than 100 pages, are particularly concerned with topics like dependencies, the conditional analysis and the multivariate modeling of extreme data. Parts I–III about the basic extreme value methodology remain unchanged to some larger extent, yet notable are, e.g., the new sections about "An Overview of Reduced-Bias Estimation" (co-authored by M.I. Gomes), "The Spectral Decomposition Methodology", and "About Tail Independence" (co-authored by M. Frick), and the new chapter about "Extreme Value Statistics of Dependent Random Variables" (co-authored ...

  18. Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Costanza, Jennifer K; Riitters, Kurt

    2017-11-21

    The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km 2 . We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

  19. Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

  20. Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

  1. Sleep Disturbances in Neurodevelopmental Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson-Shelton, Althea; Malow, Beth A

    2016-01-01

    Sleep disturbances are extremely prevalent in children with neurodevelopmental disorders compared to typically developing children. The diagnostic criteria for many neurodevelopmental disorders include sleep disturbances. Sleep disturbance in this population is often multifactorial and caused by the interplay of genetic, neurobiological and environmental overlap. These disturbances often present either as insomnia or hypersomnia. Different sleep disorders present with these complaints and based on the clinical history and findings from diagnostic tests, an appropriate diagnosis can be made. This review aims to provide an overview of causes, diagnosis, and treatment of sleep disturbances in neurodevelopmental disorders that present primarily with symptoms of hypersomnia and/or insomnia.

  2. Reconstructing disturbance history for an intensively mined region by time-series analysis of Landsat imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zipper, Carl E; Donovan, Patricia F; Wynne, Randolph H; Oliphant, Adam J

    2015-09-01

    Surface mining disturbances have attracted attention globally due to extensive influence on topography, land use, ecosystems, and human populations in mineral-rich regions. We analyzed a time series of Landsat satellite imagery to produce a 28-year disturbance history for surface coal mining in a segment of eastern USA's central Appalachian coalfield, southwestern Virginia. The method was developed and applied as a three-step sequence: vegetation index selection, persistent vegetation identification, and mined-land delineation by year of disturbance. The overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient were 0.9350 and 0.9252, respectively. Most surface coal mines were identified correctly by location and by time of initial disturbance. More than 8 % of southwestern Virginia's >4000-km(2) coalfield area was disturbed by surface coal mining over the 28-year period. Approximately 19.5 % of the Appalachian coalfield surface within the most intensively mined county (Wise County) has been disturbed by mining. Mining disturbances expanded steadily and progressively over the study period. Information generated can be applied to gain further insight concerning mining influences on ecosystems and other essential environmental features.

  3. Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

    2016-01-01

    Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

  4. Extreme value analysis for evaluating ozone control strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Brian; Cooley, Daniel; Foley, Kristen; Napelenok, Sergey; Shaby, Benjamin

    2013-06-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of six criteria pollutants regulated by the US EPA, and has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular endpoints and adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems. Regional photochemical models have been developed to study the impacts of emission reductions on ozone levels. The standard approach is to run the deterministic model under new emission levels and attribute the change in ozone concentration to the emission control strategy. However, running the deterministic model requires substantial computing time, and this approach does not provide a measure of uncertainty for the change in ozone levels. Recently, a reduced form model (RFM) has been proposed to approximate the complex model as a simple function of a few relevant inputs. In this paper, we develop a new statistical approach to make full use of the RFM to study the effects of various control strategies on the probability and magnitude of extreme ozone events. We fuse the model output with monitoring data to calibrate the RFM by modeling the conditional distribution of monitoring data given the RFM using a combination of flexible semiparametric quantile regression for the center of the distribution where data are abundant and a parametric extreme value distribution for the tail where data are sparse. Selected parameters in the conditional distribution are allowed to vary by the RFM value and the spatial location. Also, due to the simplicity of the RFM, we are able to embed the RFM in our Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain a full posterior for the model input parameters, and propagate this uncertainty to the estimation of the effects of the control strategies. We use the new framework to evaluate three potential control strategies, and find that reducing mobile-source emissions has a larger impact than reducing point-source emissions or a combination of several emission sources.

  5. Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

  6. A meta-analysis of human disturbance impacts on Antarctic wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coetzee, Bernard W T; Chown, Steven L

    2016-08-01

    Evidence-based assessments are increasingly recognized as the best-practice approach to determine appropriate conservation interventions, but such assessments of the impact of human disturbance on wildlife are rare. Human disturbance comprises anthropogenic activities that are typically non-lethal, but may cause short- and/or longer-term stress and fitness responses in wildlife. Expanding human activity in the Antarctic region is of particular concern because it increases the scope and potential for increased human disturbance to wildlife in a region that is often thought of as relatively untouched by anthropogenic influences. Here, we use a meta-analytical approach to synthesise research on human disturbance to wildlife over the last three decades in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic region. We combine data from 62 studies across 21 species on the behavioural, physiological and population responses of wildlife to pedestrian, vehicle and research disturbances. The overall effect size indicated a small, albeit statistically significant negative effect of disturbance (-0.39; 95% CI: -0.60 to -0.18). Negative effects were found for both physiological and population responses, but no evidence was found for a significant impact on wildlife behavioural responses. Negative effects were found across pedestrian, vehicle and research disturbances. Significant and high among-study heterogeneity was found in both disturbance and response sub-groups. Among species, it remains unclear to what extent different forms of disturbance translate into negative population responses. Most current guidelines to limit wildlife disturbance impacts in Antarctica recommend that approaches be tailored to animal behavioural cues, but our work demonstrates that behavioural changes do not necessarily reflect more cryptic, and more deleterious impacts, such as changes in physiology. In consequence, we recommend that pedestrian approach guidelines in the Antarctic region be revisited. Due to the high

  7. Fourier fringe analysis and its application to metrology of extreme physical phenomena: a review [Invited].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Mitsuo

    2013-01-01

    The paper reviews a technique for fringe analysis referred to as Fourier fringe analysis (FFA) or the Fourier transform method, with a particular focus on its application to metrology of extreme physical phenomena. Examples include the measurement of extremely small magnetic fields with subfluxon sensitivity by electron wave interferometry, subnanometer wavefront evaluation of projection optics for extreme UV lithography, the detection of sub-Ångstrom distortion of a crystal lattice, and the measurement of ultrashort optical pulses in the femotsecond to attosecond range, which show how the advantages of FFA are exploited in these cutting edge applications.

  8. Measurable Disturbances Compensation: Analysis and Tuning of Feedforward Techniques for Dead-Time Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Pawlowski

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, measurable disturbance compensation techniques are analyzed, focusing the problem on the input-output and disturbance-output time delays. The feedforward compensation method is evaluated for the common structures that appear between the disturbance and process dynamics. Due to the presence of time delays, the study includes causality and instability phenomena that can arise when a classical approach for disturbance compensation is used. Different feedforward configurations are analyzed for two feedback control techniques, PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative and MPC (Model Predictive Control that are widely used for industrial process-control applications. The specific tuning methodology for the analyzed process structure is used to obtain improved disturbance rejection performance regarding classical approaches. The evaluation of the introduced disturbance rejection schemes is performed through simulation, considering process constraints in order to highlight the advantages and drawbacks in common scenarios. The performance of the analyzed structure is expressed with different indexes that allow us direct comparisons. The obtained results show that the proper design and tuning of the feedforward action helps to significantly improve the overall control performance in process control tasks.

  9. Safety analysis of casks under extreme impact conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieser, G.; Qiao, L.; Voelzke, H.; Wolff, D.; Droste, B.

    2004-01-01

    The determination of the inherent safety of casks under extreme impact conditions has been of increasing interest since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. For nearly three decades BAM has been investigating cask safety under severe accident conditions like drop tests from more than 9 m onto different targets and without impact limiters as well as artificially damaged prototype casks. One of the most critical scenarios for a cask is the centric impact of a dynamic load onto the lid-seal system. This can be caused, for example, by a direct aircraft crash (or just its engine) as well as by an impact due to the collapse of a building, e.g. a nuclear facility storage hall. In this context BAM is developing methods to calculate the deformation of cask components and-with respect to leak-tightness-relative displacements between the metallic seals and their counterparts. This paper presents reflections on modelling of cask structures for finite-element analyses and discusses calculated results of stresses and deformations. Another important aspect is the behaviour of a cask under a lateral impact by aircraft or fragments of a building. Examples of the kinetic reaction (cask acceleration due to the fragments, subsequent contact with neighbouring structures like the ground, buildings or casks) are shown and discussed in correlation to cask stresses which are to be expected. (author)

  10. Multifractal rainfall extremes: Theoretical analysis and practical estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langousis, Andreas; Veneziano, Daniele; Furcolo, Pierluigi; Lepore, Chiara

    2009-01-01

    We study the extremes generated by a multifractal model of temporal rainfall and propose a practical method to estimate the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The model assumes that rainfall is a sequence of independent and identically distributed multiplicative cascades of the beta-lognormal type, with common duration D. When properly fitted to data, this simple model was found to produce accurate IDF results [Langousis A, Veneziano D. Intensity-duration-frequency curves from scaling representations of rainfall. Water Resour Res 2007;43. (doi:10.1029/2006WR005245)]. Previous studies also showed that the IDF values from multifractal representations of rainfall scale with duration d and return period T under either d → 0 or T → ∞, with different scaling exponents in the two cases. We determine the regions of the (d, T)-plane in which each asymptotic scaling behavior applies in good approximation, find expressions for the IDF values in the scaling and non-scaling regimes, and quantify the bias when estimating the asymptotic power-law tail of rainfall intensity from finite-duration records, as was often done in the past. Numerically calculated exact IDF curves are compared to several analytic approximations. The approximations are found to be accurate and are used to propose a practical IDF estimation procedure.

  11. Safety analysis of casks under extreme impact conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieser, G.; Qiao Linan; Voelzke, H.; Wolff, D.; Droste, B.

    2004-01-01

    The determination of the inherent safety of casks also under extreme impact conditions has been of increasing interest since the terrorist attacks from 11th September 2001. For nearly three decades BAM has been investigating cask safety under severe accident conditions like drop tests from more than 9 m onto different targets and without impact limiters as well as artificially damaged prototype casks. One of the most critical scenarios for a cask is the centric impact of a dynamic load onto the lid seal system. This can be caused e.g. by direct aircraft crash or its engine as well as by an impact due to the collapse of a building e.g. a nuclear facility storage hall. In this context BAM is developing methods to calculate the deformation of cask components and - with respect to leak tightness - relative displacements between the metallic seals and their counterparts. This paper presents reflections on modelling of cask structures for Finite Element analyses and discusses calculated results of stresses and deformations. Another important aspect is the behaviour of a cask under a lateral impact by aircraft and fragments of a building. Examples of the kinetic reaction (cask acceleration due to the fragments, subsequent contact with neighbouring structures like ground, buildings or casks) are shown and discussed in correlation to cask stresses which are to be expected

  12. Dynamic process analysis by moments of extreme orders

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šimberová, Stanislava; Suk, Tomáš

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, January (2016), s. 43-51 ISSN 2213-1337 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-16928S Institutional support: RVO:67985815 ; RVO:67985556 Keywords : high-order moments * principal component analysis * frequency analysis Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics; BD - Theory of Information (UTIA-B) Impact factor: 2.010, year: 2016

  13. Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

  14. Analysis of extreme ultraviolet spectra from laser produced rhenium plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tao; Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Li, Bowen; Suzuki, Yuhei; Arai, Goki; Dinh, Thanh-Hung; Dunne, Padraig; O'Reilly, Fergal; Sokell, Emma; Liu, Luning; O'Sullivan, Gerry

    2015-08-01

    Extreme ultraviolet spectra of highly-charged rhenium ions were observed in the 1-7 nm region using two Nd:YAG lasers with pulse lengths of 150 ps and 10 ns, respectively, operating at a number of laser power densities. The maximum focused peak power density was 2.6 × 1014 W cm-2 for the former and 5.5 × 1012 W cm-2 for the latter. The Cowan suite of atomic structure codes and unresolved transition array (UTA) approach were used to calculate and interpret the emission properties of the different spectra obtained. The results show that n = 4-n = 4 and n = 4-n = 5 UTAs lead to two intense quasi-continuous emission bands in the 4.3-6.3 nm and 1.5-4.3 nm spectral regions. As a result of the different ion stage distributions in the plasmas induced by ps and ns laser irradiation the 1.5-4.3 nm UTA peak moves to shorter wavelength in the ps laser produced plasma spectra. For the ns spectrum, the most populated ion stage during the lifetime of this plasma that could be identified from the n = 4-n = 5 transitions was Re23+ while for the ps plasma the presence of significantly higher stages was demonstrated. For the n = 4-n = 4 4p64dN-4p54dN+1 + 4p64dN-14f transitions, the 4d-4f transitions contribute mainly in the most intense 4.7-5.5 nm region while the 4p-4d subgroup gives rise to a weaker feature in the 4.3-4.7 nm region. A number of previously unidentified spectral features produced by n = 4-n = 5 transitions in the spectra of Re XVI to Re XXXIX are identified.

  15. Analysis of extreme ultraviolet spectra from laser produced rhenium plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Tao; Dunne, Padraig; O’Reilly, Fergal; Sokell, Emma; Liu, Luning; O’Sullivan, Gerry; Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Suzuki, Yuhei; Arai, Goki; Dinh, Thanh-Hung; Li, Bowen

    2015-01-01

    Extreme ultraviolet spectra of highly-charged rhenium ions were observed in the 1–7 nm region using two Nd:YAG lasers with pulse lengths of 150 ps and 10 ns, respectively, operating at a number of laser power densities. The maximum focused peak power density was 2.6 × 10 14 W cm −2 for the former and 5.5 × 10 12 W cm −2 for the latter. The Cowan suite of atomic structure codes and unresolved transition array (UTA) approach were used to calculate and interpret the emission properties of the different spectra obtained. The results show that n = 4-n = 4 and n = 4-n = 5 UTAs lead to two intense quasi-continuous emission bands in the 4.3–6.3 nm and 1.5–4.3 nm spectral regions. As a result of the different ion stage distributions in the plasmas induced by ps and ns laser irradiation the 1.5–4.3 nm UTA peak moves to shorter wavelength in the ps laser produced plasma spectra. For the ns spectrum, the most populated ion stage during the lifetime of this plasma that could be identified from the n = 4-n = 5 transitions was Re 23+ while for the ps plasma the presence of significantly higher stages was demonstrated. For the n = 4-n = 4 4p 6 4d N -4p 5 4d N+1  + 4p 6 4d N−1 4f transitions, the 4d-4f transitions contribute mainly in the most intense 4.7–5.5 nm region while the 4p-4d subgroup gives rise to a weaker feature in the 4.3–4.7 nm region. A number of previously unidentified spectral features produced by n = 4-n = 5 transitions in the spectra of Re XVI to Re XXXIX are identified. (paper)

  16. Analysis and design of VEK for extreme events - a challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woelfel, H.P.; Technische Univ. Darmstadt

    2006-01-01

    For analysis and design of the VEK building - especially for design against earthquake and airplane crash - a 3D-integral-model had been developed, being able of yielding any global response quantities - displacements, accelerations, sectional forces, response spectra, global reinforcement - for any load actions from one mathematical model. Especially for airplane crash a so called dynamic design results in reinforcement quantities at every time step and so leads to a realistic and economic design. The advantages of the integral-model had been transferred to the design of the processing installation where the structural analysis of steel structures, vessels and piping had been dealt with in one integral mathematical model. (orig.)

  17. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Goudenhoofdt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  18. Extreme value analysis of meterological parameters observed at Narora during the period 1989-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varakhedkar, V.K.; Dube, B.; Gurg, R.P.

    2002-08-01

    The design of engineering structures requires an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest, which is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand weather stresses. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Narora for the period 1989- 2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, maximum rainfall in a day and month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the variables such as annual maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and monthly maximum rainfall obey Fisher -Tippet Type -I extreme value distribution where as annual minimum air temperature, maximum hourly wind speed, daily maximum rainfall and maximum and minimum annual rainfall, obey Fisher -Tippet Type -2 extreme value distribution function. Various distribution function parameters for each variable are determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 years and 100 years are worked out. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in Narora area with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

  19. Safety analysis of passing maneuvers using extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haneen Farah

    2017-04-01

    The results indicate that this is a promising approach for safety evaluation. On-going work of the authors will attempt to generalize this method to other safety measures related to passing maneuvers, test it for the detailed analysis of the effect of demographic factors on passing maneuvers' crash probability and for its usefulness in a traffic simulation environment.

  20. Drinking during marathon running in extreme heat: a video analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ing conditions during the 1996 Olympic Games in 'Hotlanta' were comparatively cool ... video analysis study of the top finishers in the 2004 athens olympic ..... a competitive 25 km military route march in 44°C, they were able to drink up to 1.2 ...

  1. Connecting Performance Analysis and Visualization to Advance Extreme Scale Computing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bremer, Peer-Timo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mohr, Bernd [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Schulz, Martin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pasccci, Valerio [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gamblin, Todd [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Brunst, Holger [Dresden Univ. of Technology (Germany)

    2015-07-29

    The characterization, modeling, analysis, and tuning of software performance has been a central topic in High Performance Computing (HPC) since its early beginnings. The overall goal is to make HPC software run faster on particular hardware, either through better scheduling, on-node resource utilization, or more efficient distributed communication.

  2. Modeling N Cycling during Succession after Forest Disturbance: an Analysis of N Mining and Retention Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.; Ollinger, S. V.; Ouimette, A.; Lovett, G. M.; Fuss, C. B.; Goodale, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Dissolved inorganic nitrogen losses at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA, have declined in recent decades, a pattern that counters expectations based on prevailing theory. An unbalanced ecosystem nitrogen (N) budget implies there is a missing component for N sink. Hypotheses to explain this discrepancy include increasing rates of denitrification and accumulation of N in mineral soil pools following N mining by plants. Here, we conducted a modeling analysis fused with field measurements of N cycling, specifically examining the hypothesis relevant to N mining and retention in mineral soils. We included simplified representations of both mechanisms, N mining and retention, in a revised ecosystem process model, PnET-SOM, to evaluate the dynamics of N cycling during succession after forest disturbance at the HBEF. The predicted N mining during the early succession was regulated by a metric representing a potential demand of extra soil N for large wood growth. The accumulation of nitrate in mineral soil pools was a function of the net aboveground biomass accumulation and soil N availability and parameterized based on field 15N tracer incubation data. The predicted patterns of forest N dynamics were consistent with observations. The addition of the new algorithms also improved the predicted DIN export in stream water with an R squared of 0.35 (Ppay back the mined N in mineral soils. Predicted ecosystem N balance showed that N gas loss could account for 14-46% of the total N deposition, the soil mining about 103% during the early succession, and soil retention about 35% at the current forest stage at the HBEF.

  3. Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach....... Three extreme events are assessed: low-voltage ride through, emergency stop and normal stop. The analysis is focused on finding which event has the most negative impact on the bearing extreme radial loads. The two latter events are carried out following the guidelines of the International...

  4. On the conditions of exponential stability in active disturbance rejection control based on singular perturbation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, S.; Gao, Z.

    2017-10-01

    Stability of active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) is analysed in the presence of unknown, nonlinear, and time-varying dynamics. In the framework of singular perturbations, the closed-loop error dynamics are semi-decoupled into a relatively slow subsystem (the feedback loop) and a relatively fast subsystem (the extended state observer), respectively. It is shown, analytically and geometrically, that there exists a unique exponential stable solution if the size of the initial observer error is sufficiently small, i.e. in the same order of the inverse of the observer bandwidth. The process of developing the uniformly asymptotic solution of the system reveals the condition on the stability of the ADRC and the relationship between the rate of change in the total disturbance and the size of the estimation error. The differentiability of the total disturbance is the only assumption made.

  5. Stoichiometric and kinetic analysis of extreme halophilic Archaea on various substrates in a corrosion resistant bioreactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorantfy, Bettina; Seyer, Bernhard; Herwig, Christoph

    2014-01-25

    Extreme halophilic Archaea are extremophile species which can thrive in hypersaline environments of up to 3-5 M sodium chloride concentration. Although their ecology and physiology are widely identified on the microbiological level, little emphasis has been laid on quantitative bioprocess development with extreme halophiles. The goal of this study was to establish, on the one hand, a methodological basis for quantitative bioprocess analysis of extreme halophilic Archaea with an extreme halophilic strain as an example. Firstly, as a novel usage, a corrosion resistant bioreactor setup for extreme halophiles has been implemented. Then, paying special attention to total bioprocess quantification approaches, an indirect method for biomass quantification using on-line process signals was introduced. Subsequently, robust quantitative data evaluation methods for halophiles could be developed, providing defined and controlled cultivation conditions in the bioreactor and therefore obtaining suitable quality of on-line as well as off-line datasets. On the other hand, new physiological results of extreme halophiles in bioreactor have also been obtained based on the quantitative methodological tools. For the first time, quantitative data on stoichiometry and kinetics were collected and evaluated on different carbon sources. The results on various substrates were interpreted, with proposed metabolic mechanisms, by linking to the reported primary carbon metabolism of extreme halophilic Archaea. Moreover, results of chemostat cultures demonstrated that extreme halophilic organisms show Monod-kinetics on different sole carbon sources. A diauxic growth pattern was described on a mixture of substrates in batch cultivations. In addition, the methodologies presented here enable one to characterize the utilized strain Haloferax mediterranei (HFX) as a potential new host organism. Thus, this study offers a strong methodological basis as well as a fundamental physiological assessment for

  6. Analysis and evaluation of functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems: an integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguli, S

    1976-11-01

    This paper introduces an integrated, objective and biomechanically sound approach for the analysis and evaluation of the functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems. The method is demonstrated here in its application to the unilateral lower extremity amputee-axillary crutches system and the unilateral below-knee amputee-PTB prosthesis system, both of which are commonly encountered in day-to-day rehabilitation practice.

  7. A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Buishand, A.; Roth, M.; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 534, March (2016), s. 659-668 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * two-component extreme value distribution * regional frequency analysis * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169416000500

  8. Quantifying Forest and Coastal Disturbance from Industrial Mining Using Satellite Time Series Analysis Under Very Cloudy Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, M.; Van Den Hoek, J.; Ahmed, N.

    2015-12-01

    The open-pit Grasberg mine, located in the highlands of Western Papua, Indonesia, and operated by PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI), is among the world's largest in terms of copper and gold production. Over the last 27 years, PT-FI has used the Ajkwa River to transport an estimated 1.3 billion tons of tailings from the mine into the so-called Ajkwa Deposition Area (ADA). The ADA is the product of aggradation and lateral expansion of the Ajkwa River into the surrounding lowland rainforest and mangroves, which include species important to the livelihoods of indigenous Papuans. Mine tailings that do not settle in the ADA disperse into the Arafura Sea where they increase levels of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and associated concentrations of dissolved copper. Despite the mine's large-scale operations, ecological impact of mine tailings deposition on the forest and estuarial ecosystems have received minimal formal study. While ground-based inquiries are nearly impossible due to access restrictions, assessment via satellite remote sensing is promising but hindered by extreme cloud cover. In this study, we characterize ridgeline-to-coast environmental impacts along the Ajkwa River, from the Grasberg mine to the Arafura Sea between 1987 and 2014. We use "all available" Landsat TM and ETM+ images collected over this time period to both track pixel-level vegetation disturbance and monitor changes in coastal SPM levels. Existing temporal segmentation algorithms are unable to assess both acute and protracted trajectories of vegetation change due to pervasive cloud cover. In response, we employ robust, piecewise linear regression on noisy vegetation index (NDVI) data in a manner that is relatively insensitive to atmospheric contamination. Using this disturbance detection technique we constructed land cover histories for every pixel, based on 199 image dates, to differentiate processes of vegetation decline, disturbance, and regrowth. Using annual reports from PT-FI, we show

  9. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

  11. Analysis of Clinical Predictors of Resolution of Sleep Disturbance Related to Frequent Nighttime Heartburn and Acid Regurgitation Symptoms in Individuals Taking Esomeprazole 20 mg or Placebo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, David A; Le Moigne, Anne; Li, Jing; Pollack, Charles; Nagy, Peter

    2016-07-01

    Sleep disturbances related to reflux symptoms have a significant impact on the daily lives of affected individuals. These analyses identified clinical factors related to resolution of reflux-related sleep disturbance in subjects treated with esomeprazole 20 mg for 14 days. Data from the first 14 days of 2 similar randomized, double-blind studies were pooled for subjects experiencing frequent heartburn and related sleep disturbances receiving esomeprazole 20 mg (n = 357) or placebo (n = 346). A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed with pooled and individual study data to evaluate relationships between clinical factors [treatment (esomeprazole vs. placebo), run-in sleep disturbance frequency, occurrence (yes/no) of 24-h, daytime, and nighttime heartburn (yes: ≥1 episode in 14-day treatment period)] and complete sleep disturbance resolution (no disturbances for 7 consecutive days). Absence of daytime (p = 0.0018) or nighttime (p heartburn during treatment was a significant predictor of complete sleep disturbance resolution at 14 days for the total population, while higher run-in sleep disturbance frequency (p heartburn during therapy, and esomeprazole treatment predicted complete reflux-related sleep disturbance resolution. The magnitude of therapeutic benefit for esomeprazole 20 mg over placebo increased with increasing baseline sleep disturbance.

  12. Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Buma; Jennifer K Costanza; Kurt Riitters

    2017-01-01

    The scale of investigation for disturbanceinfluenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact...

  13. Differentiating Social Maladjustment from Emotional Disturbance: An Analysis of Case Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Amanda L.; Sadeh, Shanna S.

    2014-01-01

    For more than 30 years, scholars and practitioners have debated how to distinguish emotional disturbance (ED) from social maladjustment (SM) when determining special education eligibility and need. Scholarship on the nature of ED and SM has paid little attention to the legal parameters of practice despite the fundamentally legalistic nature of…

  14. Comparison on the Analysis on PM10 Data based on Average and Extreme Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Amin Nor Azrita

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The main concern in environmental issue is on extreme phenomena (catastrophic instead of common events. However, most statistical approaches are concerned primarily with the centre of a distribution or on the average value rather than the tail of the distribution which contains the extreme observations. The concept of extreme value theory affords attention to the tails of distribution where standard models are proved unreliable to analyse extreme series. High level of particulate matter (PM10 is a common environmental problem which causes various impacts to human health and material damages. If the main concern is on extreme events, then extreme value analysis provides the best result with significant evidence. The monthly average and monthly maxima PM10 data for Perlis from 2003 to 2014 were analysed. Forecasting for average data is made by Holt-Winters method while return level determine the predicted value of extreme events that occur on average once in a certain period. The forecasting from January 2015 to December 2016 for average data found that the highest forecasted value is 58.18 (standard deviation 18.45 on February 2016 while return level achieved 253.76 units for 24 months (2015-2016 return periods.

  15. Systematic analysis of plant disturbances with a view to reducing scram frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laakso, K.J.

    1984-01-01

    The goal of this project is to improve plant safety and reliability in Swedish BWRs by reducing the frequency of reactor scrams. The history of plant disturbances leading to reactor scrams and turbine trips in five Swedish nuclear power units was reviewed and the contributing causes were carefully analyzed. A total of 625 plant disturbances was included in the search. Improvements to be made in the units were identified and the merits of possible modifications were assessed using reliability engineering and PRA techniques. Emphasis was given to design improvements in the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) as well as in the electricity generation (turbine plant) area. Examples of various types of recommended modifications will be given, including either their proven or expected efficiency in reducing scram frequency. (orig./HP)

  16. Tensile Split Hopkinson Bar Technique: Numerical Analysis of the Problem of Wave Disturbance and Specimen Geometry Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panowicz Robert

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A method of tensile testing of materials in dynamic conditions based on a slightly modified compressive split Hopkinson bar system using a shoulder is described in this paper. The main goal was to solve, with the use of numerical modelling, the problem of wave disturbance resulting from application of a shoulder, as well as the problem of selecting a specimen geometry that enables to study the phenomenon of high strain-rate failure in tension. It is shown that, in order to prevent any interference of disturbance with the required strain signals at a given recording moment, the positions of the strain gages on the bars have to be correctly chosen for a given experimental setup. Besides, it is demonstrated that - on the basis of simplified numerical analysis - an appropriate gage length and diameter of a material specimen for failure testing in tension can be estimated.

  17. TRADER: a package for Tree Ring Analysis of Disturbance Events in R

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Altman, Jan; Fibich, P.; Doležal, Jiří; Aakala, T.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2014), s. 107-112 ISSN 1125-7865 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/12/1952; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR GA13-13368S; GA MŠk EE2.3.30.0048 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Disturbance reconstruction * Growth release, R Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.797, year: 2014

  18. Connectomic disturbances in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a whole-brain tractography analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Soon-Beom; Zalesky, Andrew; Fornito, Alex; Park, Subin; Yang, Young-Hui; Park, Min-Hyeon; Song, In-Chan; Sohn, Chul-Ho; Shin, Min-Sup; Kim, Bung-Nyun; Cho, Soo-Churl; Han, Doug Hyun; Cheong, Jae Hoon; Kim, Jae-Won

    2014-10-15

    Few studies have sought to identify, in a regionally unbiased way, the precise cortical and subcortical regions that are affected by white matter abnormalities in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study aimed to derive a comprehensive, whole-brain characterization of connectomic disturbances in ADHD. Using diffusion tensor imaging, whole-brain tractography, and an imaging connectomics approach, we characterized altered white matter connectivity in 71 children and adolescents with ADHD compared with 26 healthy control subjects. White matter differences were further delineated between patients with (n = 40) and without (n = 26) the predominantly hyperactive/impulsive subtype of ADHD. A significant network comprising 25 distinct fiber bundles linking 23 different brain regions spanning frontal, striatal, and cerebellar brain regions showed altered white matter structure in ADHD patients (p attentional disturbances. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder subtypes were differentiated by a right-lateralized network (p attentional performance underscore the functional importance of these connectomic disturbances for the clinical phenotype of ADHD. A distributed pattern of white matter microstructural integrity separately involving frontal, striatal, and cerebellar brain regions, rather than direct frontostriatal connectivity, appears to be disrupted in children and adolescents with ADHD. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Stabilization analysis of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengcheng HAN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to enrich the system stability theory of the control theories, taking Euler-Bernoulli beam equation as the research subject, the stability of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance is studied. A feedback controller based on output is designed to reduce the effects of the disturbances. The well-posedness of the nonlinear closed-loop system is investigated by the theory of maximal monotone operator, namely the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the closed-loop system. An appropriate state space is established, an appropriate inner product is defined, and a non-linear operator satisfying this state space is defined. Then, the system is transformed into the form of evolution equation. Based on this, the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the closed-loop system are proved. The asymptotic stability of the system is studied by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, which proves the asymptotic stability of the closed-loop system. The result shows that designing proper anti-interference controller is the foundation of investigating the system stability, and the research of the stability of Euler-bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance can prove the asymptotic stability of the system. This method can be extended to study the other equations such as wave equation, Timoshenko beam equation, Schrodinger equation, etc.

  20. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjie Chen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available To analyze extreme precipitation patterns in Hainan Island, hourly precipitation datasets from 18 stations, for the period from 1967 to 2012, were investigated. Two precipitation concentration indices (PCI and 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPI were chosen. PCI1 indicated a moderate seasonality in yearly precipitation and PCI2 showed that at least 80% of the total precipitation fell in 20% of the rainiest hours. Furthermore, the spatial variations of PCI1 and PCI2 differed. Linear regression indicated increasing trends in 11 of the calculated EPI. Principal component analysis found that the first recalculated principal component represented the 11 EPI. The recalculated principal component revealed an increasing trend in precipitation extremes for the whole island (except the interior section. Trend stability analysis of several of EPI suggested that the southern parts of Hainan Island, and especially the city of Sanya, should receive more attention to establish the drainage facilities necessary to prevent waterlogging.

  1. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  2. Characteristics of autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-08-15

    Extremely high autumn and winter precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpege global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpege model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for extreme precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in extreme precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpege 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause extreme precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpege model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in extreme precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems. (orig.)

  3. Number of Black Children in Extreme Poverty Hits Record High. Analysis Background.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Children's Defense Fund, Washington, DC.

    To examine the experiences of black children and poverty, researchers conducted a computer analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, the source of official government poverty statistics. The data are through 2001. Results indicated that nearly 1 million black children were living in extreme poverty, with after-tax…

  4. An Extreme-Value Analysis of the LIL for Brownian Motion

    OpenAIRE

    Khoshnevisan, Davar; Levin, David; Shi, Zhan

    2005-01-01

    We use excursion theory and the ergodic theorem to present an extreme-value analysis of the classical law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for Brownian motion. A simplified version of our method also proves, in a paragraph, the classical theorem of Darling and Erdős (1956).

  5. Analysis and measurement of property disturbances in a combustion magnetohydrodynamic plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simons, T.D.; Mitchner, M.; Eustis, R.H.

    1984-01-01

    Measurements of propagating pressure and temperature (entropy) waves in a combustion magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generator are presented along with a general model which describes how to produce controlled rapid property disturbances in a combustion MHD plasma. The model identifies the principal mechanisms of wave formation and predicts the qualitative and quantitative wave shapes as a function of average plasma and electrical properties but does not describe wave amplification. The model exhibits quantitatively the coupling between the entropy and acoustic waves and the electric current and magnetic field under conditions applicable to MHD power generation

  6. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

  7. A genome-wide analysis of putative functional and exonic variation associated with extremely high intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spain, S L; Pedroso, I; Kadeva, N; Miller, M B; Iacono, W G; McGue, M; Stergiakouli, E; Davey Smith, G; Putallaz, M; Lubinski, D; Meaburn, E L; Plomin, R; Simpson, M A

    2016-08-01

    Although individual differences in intelligence (general cognitive ability) are highly heritable, molecular genetic analyses to date have had limited success in identifying specific loci responsible for its heritability. This study is the first to investigate exome variation in individuals of extremely high intelligence. Under the quantitative genetic model, sampling from the high extreme of the distribution should provide increased power to detect associations. We therefore performed a case-control association analysis with 1409 individuals drawn from the top 0.0003 (IQ >170) of the population distribution of intelligence and 3253 unselected population-based controls. Our analysis focused on putative functional exonic variants assayed on the Illumina HumanExome BeadChip. We did not observe any individual protein-altering variants that are reproducibly associated with extremely high intelligence and within the entire distribution of intelligence. Moreover, no significant associations were found for multiple rare alleles within individual genes. However, analyses using genome-wide similarity between unrelated individuals (genome-wide complex trait analysis) indicate that the genotyped functional protein-altering variation yields a heritability estimate of 17.4% (s.e. 1.7%) based on a liability model. In addition, investigation of nominally significant associations revealed fewer rare alleles associated with extremely high intelligence than would be expected under the null hypothesis. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that rare functional alleles are more frequently detrimental than beneficial to intelligence.

  8. Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis of NPP Communication Bridge Resistance Due to Extreme Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Králik Juraj

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the experiences from the deterministic and probability analysis of the reliability of communication bridge structure resistance due to extreme loads - wind and earthquake. On the example of the steel bridge between two NPP buildings is considered the efficiency of the bracing systems. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the structure resistance are discussed. The advantages of the utilization the LHS method to analyze the safety and reliability of the structures is presented

  9. Analysis of Extreme Snow Water Equivalent Data in Central New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuyovich, C.; Skahill, B. E.; Kanney, J. F.; Carr, M.

    2017-12-01

    Heavy snowfall and snowmelt-related events have been linked to widespread flooding and damages in many regions of the U.S. Design of critical infrastructure in these regions requires spatial estimates of extreme snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we develop station specific and spatially explicit estimates of extreme SWE using data from fifteen snow sampling stations maintained by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The stations are located in the Mascoma, Pemigewasset, Winnipesaukee, Ossipee, Salmon Falls, Lamprey, Sugar, and Isinglass basins in New Hampshire. The average record length for the fifteen stations is approximately fifty-nine years. The spatial analysis of extreme SWE involves application of two Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling methods, one that assumes conditional independence, and another which uses the Smith max-stable process model to account for spatial dependence. We also apply additional max-stable process models, albeit not in a Bayesian framework, that better model the observed dependence among the extreme SWE data. The spatial process modeling leverages readily available and relevant spatially explicit covariate data. The noted additional max-stable process models also used the nonstationary winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, which has been observed to influence snowy weather along the east coast of the United States. We find that, for this data set, SWE return level estimates are consistently higher when derived using methods which account for the observed spatial dependence among the extreme data. This is particularly significant for design scenarios of relevance for critical infrastructure evaluation.

  10. Extreme Precipitation Estimation with Typhoon Morakot Using Frequency and Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hone-Jay Chu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan and produced copious amounts of precipitation in 2009. From the point view of hydrological statistics, the impact of the precipitation from typhoon Morakot using a frequency analysis can be analyzed and discussed. The frequency curve, which was fitted mathematically to historical observed data, can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance for runoff events of a certain magnitude. The study integrates frequency analysis and spatial analysis to assess the effect of Typhoon Morakot event on rainfall frequency in the Gaoping River basin of southern Taiwan. First, extreme rainfall data are collected at sixteen stations for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours and then an appropriate probability distribution was selected to analyze the impact of the extreme hydrological event. Spatial rainfall patterns for a return period of 200-yr with 24-hr duration with and without Typhoon Morakot are estimated. Results show that the rainfall amount is significantly different with long duration with and without the event for frequency analysis. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that extreme rainfall for a return period of 200-yr is highly dependent on topography and is smaller in the southwest than that in the east. The results not only demonstrate the distinct effect of Typhoon Morakot on frequency analysis, but also could provide reference in future planning of hydrological engineering.

  11. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  12. Nonlinear modeling and stability analysis of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel under load disturbance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Wencheng; Yang, Jiandong; Wang, Mingjiang; Lai, Xu

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel nonlinear mathematical model of hydro-turbine governing system is proposed. • Hopf bifurcation analysis on the governing system is conducted. • Stability of the system under load disturbance is studied. • Influence of four factors on stability is analyzed. • Optimization methods of improving system stability are put forward. - Abstract: In order to overcome the problem of nonlinear dynamics of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel, which is caused by the interface movement of the free surface-pressurized flow in the tailrace tunnel, and the difficulty of analyzing the stability of system, this paper uses the Hopf bifurcation theory to study the stability of hydro-turbine governing system of hydropower station with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel. Firstly, a novel and rational nonlinear mathematical model of the hydro-turbine governing system is proposed. This model contains the dynamic equation of pipeline system which can accurately describe the motion characteristics of the interface of free surface-pressurized flow in sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel. According to the nonlinear mathematical model, the existence and direction of Hopf bifurcation of the nonlinear dynamic system are analyzed. Furthermore, the algebraic criterion of the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation is derived. Then the stability domain and bifurcation diagram of hydro-turbine governing system are drawn by the algebraic criterion, and the characteristics of stability under different state parameters are investigated. Finally, the influence of step load value, ceiling slope angle and section form of tailrace tunnel and water depth at the interface in tailrace tunnel on stability are analyzed based on stable domain. The results indicate that: The Hopf bifurcation of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel is supercritical. The phase space trajectories of characteristic variables stabilize at the equilibrium points

  13. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  14. Analysis of Disturbance Source Inducing by The Variable Speed Wind Turbine System Forced Power Oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Jin; Hu, Weihao; Wang, Xiaoru

    2015-01-01

    The main focus of forced low frequency oscillations is to analyze the disturbance source and the origin of forced oscillations. In this paper, the origin of low-frequency periodical oscillations induced by wind turbines’ mechanical power is investigated and the mechanism is studied of fluctuating...... power transfer through permanent magnet generator wind turbine system. Considering the tower shadow and the wind shear effect, the mechanical and generator coupling model is developed by PSCAD. Simulation is done to analyze the impacts on output power of operation points and mechanical fluctuation...... components. It is shown that when the oscillation frequency of tower shadow coincides with the system natural frequency, it may cause forced oscillations, whereas, the wind shear and natural wind speed fluctuation are not likely to induce forced oscillations....

  15. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  16. Living with extreme weather events - perspectives from climatology, geomorphological analysis, chronicles and opinion polls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auer, I.; Kirchengast, A.; Proske, H.

    2009-09-01

    The ongoing climate change debate focuses more and more on changing extreme events. Information on past events can be derived from a number of sources, such as instrumental data, residual impacts in the landscape, but also chronicles and people's memories. A project called "A Tale of Two Valleys” within the framework of the research program "proVision” allowed to study past extreme events in two inner-alpine valleys from the sources mentioned before. Instrumental climate time series provided information for the past 200 years, however great attention had to be given to the homogeneity of the series. To derive homogenized time series of selected climate change indices methods like HOCLIS and Vincent have been applied. Trend analyses of climate change indices inform about increase or decrease of extreme events. Traces of major geomorphodynamic processes of the past (e.g. rockfalls, landslides, debris flows) which were triggered or affected by extreme weather events are still apparent in the landscape and could be evaluated by geomorphological analysis using remote sensing and field data. Regional chronicles provided additional knowledge and covered longer periods back in time, however compared to meteorological time series they enclose a high degree of subjectivity and intermittent recordings cannot be obviated. Finally, questionnaires and oral history complemented our picture of past extreme weather events. People were differently affected and have different memories of it. The joint analyses of these four data sources showed agreement to some extent, however also showed some reasonable differences: meteorological data are point measurements only with a sometimes too coarse temporal resolution. Due to land-use changes and improved constructional measures the impact of an extreme meteorological event may be different today compared to earlier times.

  17. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhian Dharma Prayuda

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

  18. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric

  19. National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis With Policy Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Catherine R; Osterberg, E Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W; McAninch, Jack W; McCulloch, Charles E; Breyer, Benjamin N

    2016-08-01

    To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (OR). A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated cost was $7321 ($5677-$10,000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs [OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-2.04, P = .02] compared with patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs (OR 3.2, CI 2.14-4.75, P costs (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.2-2.64, P = .005). Variations in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payor type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson

    2000-01-01

    Climate change affects forests both directly and indirectly through disturbances. Disturbances are a natural and integral part of forest ecosystems, and climate change can alter these natural interactions. When disturbances exceed their natural range of variation, the change in forest structure and function may be extreme. Each disturbance affects forests differently....

  1. A dendrochronological analysis of a disturbance-succession model for oak-pine forests of the Appalachian Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose; Thomas A. Waldrop

    2010-01-01

    Disturbance-succession models describe the relationship between the disturbance regime and the dominant tree species of a forest type. Such models are useful tools in ecosystem management and restoration, provided they are accurate. We tested a disturbance-succession model for the oak-pine (Quercus spp. - Pinus spp.) forests of the...

  2. Patterns of precipitation and soil moisture extremes in Texas, US: A complex network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Xia, Youlong; Caldwell, Todd G.; Hao, Zengchao

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation not only improves prediction skills, but also helps to prioritize hazard mitigation efforts. This study seeks to enhance the understanding of spatiotemporal covariation patterns embedded in precipitation (P) and soil moisture (SM) by using an event-based, complex-network-theoretic approach. Events concurrences are quantified using a nonparametric event synchronization measure, and spatial patterns of hydroclimate variables are analyzed by using several network measures and a community detection algorithm. SM-P coupling is examined using a directional event coincidence analysis measure that takes the order of event occurrences into account. The complex network approach is demonstrated for Texas, US, a region possessing a rich set of hydroclimate features and is frequented by catastrophic flooding. Gridded daily observed P data and simulated SM data are used to create complex networks of P and SM extremes. The uncovered high degree centrality regions and community structures are qualitatively in agreement with the overall existing knowledge of hydroclimate extremes in the study region. Our analyses provide new visual insights on the propagation, connectivity, and synchronicity of P extremes, as well as the SM-P coupling, in this flood-prone region, and can be readily used as a basis for event-driven predictive analytics for other regions.

  3. EMA beamline at SIRIUS: extreme condition X-ray methods of analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza Neto, Narcizo

    2016-01-01

    Full text: The EMA beamline (Extreme condition X-ray Methods of Analysis) is one of the hard x-ray undulator beamlines within the first phase of the new synchrotron source in Brazil (Sirius project). This beamline is thought to make a difference where a high brilliance (high flux of up to 2 x 10 14 photons/sec with beam size down to 0.5 x 0.5 μm 2 ) is essential, which is the case for extreme pressures that require small focus and time-resolved that require high photon flux. With that in mind we propose the beamline to have two experimental hutches to cover most of the extreme condition techniques today employed at synchrotron laboratories worldwide. These two stations are thought to provide the general infrastructure for magnets and lasers experiments, which may evolve as new scientific problems appear. In addition to the hutches, support laboratories will be strongly linked and supportive to the experiments at the beamline, covering high pressure instrumentations using diamond anvil cells and pump-and-probe requirements for ultrafast and high power lasers. Along these lines, we will describe the following techniques covered at this beamline: magnetic spectroscopy (XMCD) and scattering (XRMS) under high pressure and very low temperature in order to fully probe both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials and the dependence with pressure; extreme pressure and temperature XRD and XAS experiments using very small diamond culet anvils and high power lasers. (author)

  4. EMA beamline at SIRIUS: extreme condition X-ray methods of analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza Neto, Narcizo, E-mail: narcizo.souza@lnls.br [Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais (CNPEM), Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    Full text: The EMA beamline (Extreme condition X-ray Methods of Analysis) is one of the hard x-ray undulator beamlines within the first phase of the new synchrotron source in Brazil (Sirius project). This beamline is thought to make a difference where a high brilliance (high flux of up to 2 x 10{sup 14} photons/sec with beam size down to 0.5 x 0.5 μm{sup 2}) is essential, which is the case for extreme pressures that require small focus and time-resolved that require high photon flux. With that in mind we propose the beamline to have two experimental hutches to cover most of the extreme condition techniques today employed at synchrotron laboratories worldwide. These two stations are thought to provide the general infrastructure for magnets and lasers experiments, which may evolve as new scientific problems appear. In addition to the hutches, support laboratories will be strongly linked and supportive to the experiments at the beamline, covering high pressure instrumentations using diamond anvil cells and pump-and-probe requirements for ultrafast and high power lasers. Along these lines, we will describe the following techniques covered at this beamline: magnetic spectroscopy (XMCD) and scattering (XRMS) under high pressure and very low temperature in order to fully probe both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials and the dependence with pressure; extreme pressure and temperature XRD and XAS experiments using very small diamond culet anvils and high power lasers. (author)

  5. The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-03-01

    The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

  6. A Deep Learning Prediction Model Based on Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Cluster Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Guohui; Zhang, Songling; Yang, Hong

    2017-01-01

    Aiming at the irregularity of nonlinear signal and its predicting difficulty, a deep learning prediction model based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) and clustering analysis is proposed. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by ESMD to obtain the finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residuals. Secondly, the fuzzy c-means is used to cluster the decomposed components, and then the deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict it. Finally, the reconstructed ...

  7. National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis with Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Catherine R.; Osterberg, E. Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W.; McAninch, Jack W.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Breyer, Benjamin N.

    2016-01-01

    To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality.We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear ...

  8. Analysis model for forecasting extreme temperature using refined rank set pair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Ling-Xia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the precision of forecasting extreme temperature time series, a refined rank set pair analysis model with a refined rank transformation function is proposed to improve precision of its prediction. The measured values of the annual highest temperature of two China’s cities, Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang, in July are taken to examine the performance of a refined rank set pair model.

  9. Analysis of static characteristic roots and propagation of disturbance of adjustable centrifuge cascade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Weijie; Wu Zhongdi; Nong Guowei; Zeng Shi

    2014-01-01

    The hydraulic characteristic roots of a centrifuge cascade represent an important property of the cascade performance. Regulators and centrifuges are the key components that have a significant influence on the cascade hydraulic performance. The method used in diffusion cascades was adopted to obtain the static characteristic roots by solving the small disturbance equation for an adjustable centrifuge cascade in which all stages have the same fluid parameters. As the light stream flowrate of a centrifuge is irrelevant to the pressure at the outlet of the light flow, and the heavy stream flows at the speed of sound, there are only 2 static characteristic roots in the centrifuge cascade: the first root Z_1 is the main characteristic root and the second one Z_2 comes into play only when there exists a feed. The value of the main characteristic root is influenced by the amplification factor of the regulators, the fluid resistance in the main feed pipe and other factors. When Z_1 is smaller than 1, it increases with the fluid resistance. A large enough amplification factor has little impact on Z_1. The same distribution of the relative changes of the light fraction along the cascade is obtained by an analytical and a numerical method. (authors)

  10. Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

    2018-05-01

    Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

  11. Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

  12. Microgravity Disturbance Predictions in the Combustion Integrated Rack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, M.; Grodsinsky, Carlos M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper will focus on the approach used to characterize microgravity disturbances in the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR), currently scheduled for launch to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2005. Microgravity experiments contained within the CIR are extremely sensitive to vibratory and transient disturbances originating on-board and off-board the rack. Therefore, several techniques are implemented to isolate the critical science locations from external vibration. A combined testing and analysis approach is utilized to predict the resulting microgravity levels at the critical science location. The major topics to be addressed are: 1) CIR Vibration Isolation Approaches, 2) Disturbance Sources and Characterization, 3) Microgravity Predictive Modeling, 4) Science Microgravity Requirements, 6) Microgravity Control, and 7) On-Orbit Disturbance Measurement. The CIR is using the Passive Rack Isolation System (PaRIS) to isolate the rack from offboard rack disturbances. By utilizing this system, CIR is connected to the U.S. Lab module structure by either 13 or 14 umbilical lines and 8 spring / damper isolators. Some on-board CIR disturbers are locally isolated by grommets or wire ropes. CIR's environmental and science on board support equipment such as air circulation fans, pumps, water flow, air flow, solenoid valves, and computer hard drives cause disturbances within the rack. These disturbers along with the rack structure must be characterized to predict whether the on-orbit vibration levels during experimentation exceed the specified science microgravity vibration level requirements. Both vibratory and transient disturbance conditions are addressed. Disturbance levels/analytical inputs are obtained for each individual disturber in a "free floating" condition in the Glenn Research Center (GRC) Microgravity Emissions Lab (MEL). Flight spare hardware is tested on an Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) basis. Based on test and analysis, maximum disturbance level

  13. Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okrent, D.

    1989-03-01

    This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed.

  14. Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okrent, D.

    1989-03-01

    This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled ``Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed.

  15. Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1989-01-01

    This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled ''Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed

  16. Orbital Disturbance Analysis due to the Lunar Gravitational Potential and Deviation Minimization through the Trajectory Control in Closed Loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V

    2013-01-01

    A study evaluating the influence due to the lunar gravitational potential, modeled by spherical harmonics, on the gravity acceleration is accomplished according to the model presented in Konopliv (2001). This model provides the components x, y and z for the gravity acceleration at each moment of time along the artificial satellite orbit and it enables to consider the spherical harmonic degree and order up to100. Through a comparison between the gravity acceleration from a central field and the gravity acceleration provided by Konopliv's model, it is obtained the disturbing velocity increment applied to the vehicle. Then, through the inverse problem, the Keplerian elements of perturbed orbit of the satellite are calculated allowing the orbital motion analysis. Transfer maneuvers and orbital correction of lunar satellites are simulated considering the disturbance due to non-uniform gravitational potential of the Moon, utilizing continuous thrust and trajectory control in closed loop. The simulations are performed using the Spacecraft Trajectory Simulator-STRS, Rocco (2008), which evaluate the behavior of the orbital elements, fuel consumption and thrust applied to the satellite over the time

  17. Analysis of disturbances in a hypersonic boundary layer on a cone with heating/cooling of the nose tip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bountin, Dmitry; Maslov, Anatoly; Gromyko, Yury

    2018-05-01

    Experimental results of the influence of local heating/cooling on the development of hypersonic boundary layer disturbances are reported. Local heating/cooling is applied at the cone nose tip. The experiments are carried out at the Mach number M = 5.95, stagnation temperature T0 = 360-418 K, and stagnation pressure P0 = 3.7-45 atm. The unit Reynolds number is varied in the interval Re1 = (4.5-63) × 106 m-1. The investigations are conducted in the boundary layer on a cone with an apex half-angle of 7° and varied bluntness radius of the nose tip [R = 0.03 (sharp nose), 0.75, and 1.5 mm] for different values of the local temperature factor. The nose tip is heated by an ohmic heater. Cooling is performed by supplying liquid nitrogen into the internal cavity of the model nose. A comparative analysis of pressure pulsation spectra on the cone surface is performed. It is demonstrated that heating/cooling in the case of a sharp cone leads to flow destabilization/stabilization. The opposite effect is observed for blunted cones: heating/cooling stabilizes/destabilizes the second-mode disturbances. This effect is enhanced by increasing the nose tip bluntness. All the observed effects vanish with distance downstream from the nose tip.

  18. Analysis of stress corrosion data by means of the statistic of extreme values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imarisio, G.; Lanza, F.

    1978-01-01

    The possibility of examining stress corosion by means of extreme statistic was proposed. A series of test in boiling MgCl 2 of samples made on AISI 304 have been performed. Evolution of cracks dimension and time of life of samples was followed. It has been shown that the dimensions of the maximum cracks on the sample corroded for different times can be organized following the extreme values statistic. Also the life time of sample can be treated in the same way. A confirmation has been obtained using data taken from literature. Possible uses of predictions obtained with this type of analysis have been underlined. An extension of the toward less corrosive media and samples of several volumes is suggested to check the validity of the method

  19. Risk factors for breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema: a meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yuhuan; Guo Qi; Liu Fenghua; Zhu Yaqun; Tian Ye

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To systematically evaluate the risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment and the strength of their associations. Methods: PubMed, Ovid, EMbase, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify clinical trials published up to December 2012. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale;data analysis was performed by Stata 10.0 and RevMan 5.2; the strength of associations between risk factors and breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema was described as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Twenty-two studies involving 10106 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment mainly included axillary lymph node dissection (OR=2.72, 95% CI=1.06-6.99, P=0.038), hypertension (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.38-2.44, P=0.000), body mass index (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.22-2.32, P=0.001), and radiotherapy (OR=1.65, 95% CI=1.20-2.25, P=0.002), while no significant associations were found for such factors as chemotherapy, age, number of positive lymph nodes, and number of dissected lymph nodes. Conclusions: The incidence of upper extremity lymphedema is high among patients with breast cancer after treatment, and axillary lymph node dissection, hypertension,body mass index, and radiotherapy are the main risk factors for lymphedema after breast cancer treatment. (authors)

  20. Logic generator and validator for the disturbance analysis and surveillance system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabo, J.

    1983-01-01

    The on-line monitoring of a power plant (or any process plant) consists of three primary functions: data acquisition, data analysis, and data presentation. Data acquisition is the process by which the basic set of physical data from plant components is obtained. In the data analysis, or logic, phase a specific data analysis computer code determines the meaning of the acquired physical data. The results of this logical analysis may either be presented to a plant operator who will then have to activate the controls systems accordingly or they can be used to automatically activate the same control systems. This work relates to second of the above three functions by presenting advanced methods for generating reliable data analysis computer codes

  1. Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escarela, Gabriel

    2012-06-01

    The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

  2. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, Xuanlu M.; Louie, Alexander V.; Ashman, Jonathan; Wasif, Nabil

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Surgery combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the cornerstone of multidisciplinary management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Although RT can be given in either the preoperative or the postoperative setting with similar local recurrence and survival outcomes, the side effect profiles, costs, and long-term functional outcomes are different. The aim of this study was to use decision analysis to determine optimal sequencing of RT with surgery in patients with extremity STS. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a state transition Markov model, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome. A time horizon of 5 years, a cycle length of 3 months, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY was used. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the thresholds at which each strategy would be preferred. The robustness of the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Preoperative RT is a more cost-effective strategy ($26,633/3.00 QALYs) than postoperative RT ($28,028/2.86 QALYs) in our base case scenario. Preoperative RT is the superior strategy with either 3-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT. One-way sensitivity analyses identified the relative risk of chronic adverse events as having the greatest influence on the preferred timing of RT. The likelihood of preoperative RT being the preferred strategy was 82% on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative RT is more cost effective than postoperative RT in the management of resectable extremity STS, primarily because of the higher incidence of chronic adverse events with RT in the postoperative setting.

  3. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qu, Xuanlu M. [Department of Oncology, Queen' s University, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Louie, Alexander V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Health Sciences Center, London, Ontario (Canada); Ashman, Jonathan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona (United States); Wasif, Nabil, E-mail: wasif.nabil@mayo.edu [Department of General Surgery, Mayo Clinic Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Purpose: Surgery combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the cornerstone of multidisciplinary management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Although RT can be given in either the preoperative or the postoperative setting with similar local recurrence and survival outcomes, the side effect profiles, costs, and long-term functional outcomes are different. The aim of this study was to use decision analysis to determine optimal sequencing of RT with surgery in patients with extremity STS. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a state transition Markov model, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome. A time horizon of 5 years, a cycle length of 3 months, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY was used. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the thresholds at which each strategy would be preferred. The robustness of the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Preoperative RT is a more cost-effective strategy ($26,633/3.00 QALYs) than postoperative RT ($28,028/2.86 QALYs) in our base case scenario. Preoperative RT is the superior strategy with either 3-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT. One-way sensitivity analyses identified the relative risk of chronic adverse events as having the greatest influence on the preferred timing of RT. The likelihood of preoperative RT being the preferred strategy was 82% on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative RT is more cost effective than postoperative RT in the management of resectable extremity STS, primarily because of the higher incidence of chronic adverse events with RT in the postoperative setting.

  4. Global transcriptome analysis of Halolamina sp. to decipher the salt tolerance in extremely halophilic archaea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt-Kızıldoğan, Aslıhan; Abanoz, Büşra; Okay, Sezer

    2017-02-15

    Extremely halophilic archaea survive in the hypersaline environments such as salt lakes or salt mines. Therefore, these microorganisms are good sources to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying the tolerance to high salt concentrations. In this study, a global transcriptome analysis was conducted in an extremely halophilic archaeon, Halolamina sp. YKT1, isolated from a salt mine in Turkey. A comparative RNA-seq analysis was performed using YKT1 isolate grown either at 2.7M NaCl or 5.5M NaCl concentrations. A total of 2149 genes were predicted to be up-regulated and 1638 genes were down-regulated in the presence of 5.5M NaCl. The salt tolerance of Halolamina sp. YKT1 involves the up-regulation of genes related with membrane transporters, CRISPR-Cas systems, osmoprotectant solutes, oxidative stress proteins, and iron metabolism. On the other hand, the genes encoding the proteins involved in DNA replication, transcription, translation, mismatch and nucleotide excision repair were down-regulated. The RNA-seq data were verified for seven up-regulated genes as well as six down-regulated genes via qRT-PCR analysis. This comprehensive transcriptome analysis showed that the halophilic archaeon canalizes its energy towards keeping the intracellular osmotic balance minimizing the production of nucleic acids and peptides. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L moments method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani; Shabri, Ani

    2013-07-01

    An approach based on regional frequency analysis using L moments and LH moments are revisited in this study. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the partial L moments (PL moments) method is employed, and a new relationship for homogeneity analysis is developed. The results were then compared with those obtained using the method of L moments and LH moments of order two. The Selangor catchment, consisting of 37 sites and located on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, is chosen as a case study. PL moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized Pareto distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. PL moment ratio diagram and Z test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the three approaches showed that GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation used for performance evaluation shows that the method of PL moments would outperform L and LH moments methods for estimation of large return period events.

  6. Disturbance recording system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandra, A.K.; Deshpande, S.V.; Mayya, A.; Vaidya, U.W.; Premraj, M.K.; Patil, N.B.

    1994-01-01

    A computerized system for disturbance monitoring, recording and display has been developed for use in nuclear power plants and is versatile enough to be used where ever a large number of parameters need to be recorded, e.g. conventional power plants, chemical industry etc. The Disturbance Recording System (DRS) has been designed to continuously monitor a process plant and record crucial parameters. The DRS provides a centralized facility to monitor and continuously record 64 process parameters scanned every 1 sec for 5 days. The system also provides facility for storage of 64 parameters scanned every 200 msec during 2 minutes prior to and 3 minutes after a disturbance. In addition the system can initiate, on demand, the recording of 8 parameters at a fast rate of every 5 msec for a period of 5 sec. and thus act as a visicorder. All this data is recorded in non-volatile memory and can be displayed, printed/plotted and used for subsequent analysis. Since data can be stored densely on floppy disks, the volume of space required for archival storage is also low. As a disturbance recorder, the DRS allows the operator to view the state of the plant prior to occurrence of the disturbance and helps in identifying the root cause. (author). 10 refs., 7 figs

  7. Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Dry Spells during Rainy Season in the Wei River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunxian She

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our research analyzes the regional changes of extreme dry spell, represented by the annual maximum dry spell length (noted as AMDSL during the rainy season in the Wei River Basin (WRB of China for 1960–2014 using the L-moments method. The mean AMDSL values increase from the west to the east of the WRB, suggesting a high dry risk in the east compared to the west in the WRB. To investigate the regional frequency more reasonably, the WRB is clustered into four homogenous subregions via the K-means method and some subjective adjustments. The goodness-of-fit test shows that the GEV, PE3, and GLO distribution can be accepted as the “best-fit” model for subregions 1 and 4, subregion 2, and subregion 3, respectively. The quantiles of AMDSL under various return levels figure out a similar spatial distribution with mean AMDSL. We also find that the dry risk in subregion 2 and subregion 4 might be higher than that in subregion 1. The relationship between ENSO events and extreme dry spell events in the rainy season with cross wavelet analysis method proves that ENSO events play a critical role in triggering extreme dry events during rainy season in the WRB.

  8. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  9. Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2013-01-01

    with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas....... The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental...

  10. Quantitative Motion Analysis of Tai Chi Chuan: The Upper Extremity Movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Jung Ho

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative and reproducible analysis of the standard body movement in Tai Chi Chuan (TCC was performed in this study. We aimed to provide a reference of the upper extremities for standardizing TCC practice. Microsoft Kinect was used to record the motion during the practice of TCC. The preparation form and eight essential forms of TCC performed by an instructor and 101 practitioners were analyzed in this study. The instructor completed an entire TCC practice cycle and performed the cycle 12 times. An entire cycle of TCC was performed by practitioners and images were recorded for statistics analysis. The performance of the instructor showed high similarity (Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.71~0.84 to the first practice cycle. Among the 9 forms, lay form had the highest similarity (rmean=0.90 and push form had the lowest similarity (rmean=0.52. For the practitioners, ward off form (rmean=0.51 and roll back form (rmean=0.45 had the highest similarity with moderate correlation. We used Microsoft Kinect to record the spatial coordinates of the upper extremity joints during the practice of TCC and the data to perform quantitative and qualitative analysis of the joint positions and elbow joint angle.

  11. Data co-processing for extreme scale analysis level II ASC milestone (4745).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, David; Moreland, Kenneth D.; Oldfield, Ron A.; Fabian, Nathan D.

    2013-03-01

    Exascale supercomputing will embody many revolutionary changes in the hardware and software of high-performance computing. A particularly pressing issue is gaining insight into the science behind the exascale computations. Power and I/O speed con- straints will fundamentally change current visualization and analysis work ows. A traditional post-processing work ow involves storing simulation results to disk and later retrieving them for visualization and data analysis. However, at exascale, scien- tists and analysts will need a range of options for moving data to persistent storage, as the current o ine or post-processing pipelines will not be able to capture the data necessary for data analysis of these extreme scale simulations. This Milestone explores two alternate work ows, characterized as in situ and in transit, and compares them. We nd each to have its own merits and faults, and we provide information to help pick the best option for a particular use.

  12. Response spectrum analysis of coupled structural response to a three component seismic disturbance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulet, J.A.M.; Carley, T.G.

    1977-01-01

    The work discussed herein is a comparison and evaluation of several response spectrum analysis (RSA) techniques as applied to the same structural model with seismic excitation having three spatial components. Lagrange's equations of motion for the system were written in matrix form and uncoupled with the modal matrix. Numerical integration (fourth order Runge-Kutta) of the resulting model equations produced time histories of system displacements in response to simultaneous application of three orthogonal components of ground motion, and displacement response spectra for each modal coordinate in response to each of the three ground motion components. Five different RSA techniques were used to combine the spectral displacements and the modal matrix to give approximations of maximum system displacements. These approximations were then compared with the maximum system displacements taken from the time histories. The RSA techniques used are the method of absolute sums, the square root of the sum of the squares, the double sum approach, the method of closely spaced modes, and Lin's method. The vectors of maximum system displacements as computed by the time history analysis and the five response spectrum analysis methods are presented. (Auth.)

  13. Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

    2018-06-01

    California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Stochastic analysis of a novel nonautonomous periodic SIRI epidemic system with random disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weiwei; Meng, Xinzhu

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a new stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic model is formulated. Given that the incidence rates of diseases may change with the environment, we propose a novel type of transmission function. The main aim of this paper is to obtain the thresholds of the stochastic SIRI epidemic model. To this end, we investigate the dynamics of the stochastic system and establish the conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions and using stochastic analysis technique. Furthermore, we show that the stochastic system has at least one nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our results.

  15. Investigation of Pre-Earthquake Ionospheric Disturbances by 3D Tomographic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagmur, M.

    2016-12-01

    Ionospheric variations before earthquakes have been widely discussed phenomena in ionospheric studies. To clarify the source and mechanism of these phenomena is highly important for earthquake forecasting. To well understanding the mechanical and physical processes of pre-seismic Ionospheric anomalies that might be related even with Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling, both statistical and 3D modeling analysis are needed. For these purpose, firstly we have investigated the relation between Ionospheric TEC Anomalies and potential source mechanisms such as space weather activity and lithospheric phenomena like positive surface electric charges. To distinguish their effects on Ionospheric TEC, we have focused on pre-seismically active days. Then, we analyzed the statistical data of 54 earthquakes that M≽6 between 2000 and 2013 as well as the 2011 Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes in Japan. By comparing TEC anomaly and Solar activity by Dst Index, we have found that 28 events that might be related with Earthquake activity. Following the statistical analysis, we also investigate the Lithospheric effect on TEC change on selected days. Among those days, we have chosen two case studies as the 2011 Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes to make 3D reconstructed images by utilizing 3D Tomography technique with Neural Networks. The results will be presented in our presentation. Keywords : Earthquake, 3D Ionospheric Tomography, Positive and Negative Anomaly, Geomagnetic Storm, Lithosphere

  16. Nickel exposure promotes osmoregulatory disturbances in Oreochromis niloticus gills: histopathological and energy dispersive spectrometry analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcato, A C C; Yabuki, A T; Fontanetti, C S

    2014-11-01

    Water is an essential factor for maintaining the vital functions of living beings. Nickel is the 24th most abundant element on Earth; it is a heavy metal that is genotoxic and mutagenic in its chloride form. Due to industrial use, its concentration in surface sediments increased considerably. Fish develop characteristics that make them excellent experimental models for studying aquatic toxicology. They are particularly useful because they can alert of the potential danger of chemical substances or environmental pollution. Due to water quality impairment and because there are few published studies that relate nickel to tissue alteration, this study aimed to examine the consequences of nickel in an aquatic environment. For this analysis, individuals of Oreochromis niloticus were exposed for 96 h to three different concentrations of nickel dissolved in water according to the standard established by Brazilian law and compared them to a control group. After exposure, the gills were analyzed using X-ray microanalysis, ultramorphology, and histological and histochemical analysis. The results demonstrated that all the concentrations used in the experiment altered the histophysiology of the individuals exposed. In conclusion, the nickel presents a toxic potential to fish, even at the lowest concentration tested, which is equivalent to half of the concentration allowed by law. The CONAMA resolution should be revised for this parameter because of the interference of this metal in the histophysiology of the tested organism.

  17. Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

    2017-10-01

    Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

  18. Analysis of the electrical disturbances in CERN power distribution network with pattern mining methods

    CERN Document Server

    Abramenko, Oleksii

    2017-01-01

    The current research focuses on the perturbations within the electrical network of the LHC and its subsystems by analyzing measurements collected from oscilloscopes installed across different CERN sites, and alarms by electrical equipments. We analyze amplitude and duration of the glitches and, together with other relevant variables, correlate them with beam stopping events. The work also tries to identify assets affected by such perturbations using data mining and, in particular, frequent pattern mining methods. On the practical side we summarize results of our work by putting forward a prototype of a software tool enabling online monitoring of the alarms coming from the electrical network and facilitating glitch detection and analysis by a technical operator.

  19. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  20. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

    2017-12-01

    A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

  2. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  3. Disturbance analysis of a free-piston engine generator using a validated fast-response numerical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, Boru; Smallbone, Andrew; Mikalsen, Rikard; Feng, Huihua; Zuo, Zhengxing; Roskilly, Anthony Paul

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Different types of system disturbance with specific occurring times were identified. • The influence of each disturbance on the FPE system was characterised. • Technically feasible control variables were identified. • Control variable coupled with a system controller design was presented. - Abstract: In this paper, a fast-response numerical model was used to investigate potential disturbances to a free-piston engine generator (FPEG), i.e. engine cycle-to-cycle variations, misfire and immediate electric load change. During the engine operation, there could be one disturbance taking place or several disturbances take place simultaneously. By identifying different types of system disturbance with specific occurring times, the influence on the system was characterised. It was found that a step change of electric load would induce a corresponding top dead centre (TDC) step change. Low variations on piston TDC are observed when cycle-to-cycle variations take place. When unsuccessful ignition occurs, the engine will stop after one oscillation cycle. Reducing the electric load after misfire would cause more oscillation cycles and require a restart of the engine. Technically feasible control variables were identified and coupled with a PI feedback controller design to minimise the impact of each kind of disturbance, a design which could be used in future FPE control system designs. The controller performance was seen to be satisfactory for the electric load step change, and the piston TDC was controlled to back to the set point in 0.5 s.

  4. Response spectrum analysis of coupled structural response to a three component seismic disturbance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulet, J.A.M.; Carley, T.G.

    1977-01-01

    The work discussed herein is a comparison and evaluation of several response spectrum analysis (RSA) techniques as applied to the same structural model with seismic excitation having three spatial components. The structural model includes five lumped masses (floors) connected by four elastic members. The base is supported by three translational springs and two horizontal torsional springs. In general, the mass center and shear center of a building floor are distinct locations. Hence, inertia forces, which act at the mass center, induce twisting in the structure. Through this induced torsion, the lateral (x and y) displacements of the mass elements are coupled. The ground motion components used for this study are artificial earthquake records generated from recorded accelerograms by a spectrum modification technique. The accelerograms have response spectra which are compatible with U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60. Lagrange's equations of motion for the system were written in matrix form and uncoupled with the modal matrix. Numerical integration (fourth order Runge-Kutta) of the resulting modal equations produced time histories of system displacements in response to simultaneous application of three orthogonal components of ground motion, and displacement response spectra for each modal coordinate in response to each of the three ground motion components. Five different RSA techniques were used to combine the spectral displacements and the modal matrix to give approximations of maximum system displacements. These approximations were then compared with the maximum system displacements taken from the time histories. The RSA techniques used are the method of absolute sums, the square root of the sum of the sum of the squares, the double sum approach, the method of closely spaced modes, and Lin's method

  5. Analysis of Carotenoid Production by Halorubrum sp. TBZ126; an Extremely Halophilic Archeon from Urmia Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davood Naziri

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Carotenoids are of great interest in many scientific disciplines because of their wide distribution, diverse functions and interesting properties. The present report describes a new natural source for carotenoid production. Methods: Halorubrum sp., TBZ126, an extremely halophilic archaeon, was isolated from Urmia Lack following culture of water sample on marine agar medium and incubation at 30 °C. Then single colonies were cultivated in broth media. After that the cells were collected and carotenoids were extracted with acetone-methanol (7:3 v/v. The identification of carotenoids was performed by UV-VIS spectroscopy and confirmed by thin layer chromatography (TLC in the presence of antimony pentachloride (SbCl5. The production profile was analyzed using liquid-chromatography mass spectroscopy (LC-MS techniques. Phenotypic characteristics of the isolate were carried out and the 16S rRNA gene was amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR. Results: LC-MS analytical results revealed that produced carotenoids are bacterioruberin, lycopene and β-carotene. Bacterioruberin was found to be the predominant produced carotenoid. 16S rRNA analysis showed that TBZ126 has 100% similarity with Halorubrum chaoviator Halo-G*T (AM048786. Conclusion: Halorubrum sp. TBZ126, isolated from Urmia Lake has high capacity in the production of carotenoids. This extremely halophilic archaeon could be considered as a prokaryotic candidate for carotenoid production source for future studies.

  6. Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

  7. Analysis of impacts on hydrometeorological extremes in the Senegal River Basin from REMO RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galiano, Sandra Garcia; Osorio, Juan Diego Giraldo [Technical Univ. of Cartagena, Dept. of Thermal Engineering and Fluids, Cartagena (Spain)

    2010-06-15

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability. The precipitation latitudinal gradient determines agricultural activities. The cultivated area of the Sahel is a densely populated region, whereas flood recession agriculture is practiced in the Senegal River Valley. The present study analyses both spatial-temporal rainfall patterns of the REMO Regional Climate Model (RCM) and observed rainfall data, focusing in particular on extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena. An analysis of simulated daily rainfall data was performed to determine the frequency and magnitude of length of dry spells, as well as the extreme rainfall events. A projected annual decrease in rainfall on horizon 2050 could be explained by two factors: the decrease in the percentage of rainy days on both west and north sides of the basin, and the decrease of precipitation amount for rainy days in the southern basin. Finally, an increase in the frequency of dry spell in the monsoon season by 2050 is projected. Such findings are significant in a framework of strategies for water resources management and planning at basin scale, in order to build adaptive capacity. (orig.)

  8. WOrk-Related Questionnaire for UPper extremity disorders (WORQ-UP): Factor Analysis and Internal Consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Bas R; Kuijer, P Paul; Beumer, Annechien; Eygendaal, Denise; Frings-Dresen, Monique H

    2018-04-17

    To test a 17-item questionnaire, the WOrk-Related Questionnaire for UPper extremity disorders (WORQ-UP), for dimensionality of the items (factor analysis) and internal consistency. Cross-sectional study. Outpatient clinic. A consecutive sample of patients (N=150) consisting of all new referral patients (either from a general physician or other hospital) who visited the orthopedic outpatient clinic because of an upper extremity musculoskeletal disorder. Not applicable. Number and dimensionality of the factors in the WORQ-UP. Four factors with eigenvalues (EVs) >1.0 were found. The factors were named exertion, dexterity, tools & equipment, and mobility. The EVs of the factors were, respectively, 5.78, 2.38, 1.81, and 1.24. The factors together explained 65.9% of the variance. The Cronbach alpha values for these factors were, respectively, .88, .74, .87, and .66. The 17 items of the WORQ-UP resemble 4 factors-exertion, dexterity, tools & equipment, and mobility-with a good internal consistency. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Bayesian analysis applied to statistical uncertainties of extreme response distributions of offshore wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, P.W.; Kuik, van G.A.M.; Bussel, van G.J.W.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2002-01-01

    Extreme response is an important design variable for wind turbines. The statistical uncertainties concerning the extreme response distribution are simulated here with data concerning physical characteristics obtained from measurements. The extreme responses are the flap moment at the blade root and

  10. Using a model based fourth-corner analysis to explain vegetation change following an extraordinary fire disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, S E; Pickering, C M; Butler, S A; Letten, A D

    2016-11-01

    In ecosystems where large-scale disturbances are infrequent, the mode of succession may be difficult to discern and floristic surveys alone cannot be used determine the underlying processes causing vegetation change. To determine the causes of vegetation change in response to a large-scale fire event, we combined traditional floristic survey data, plant functional traits and environmental variables in a model-based solution to the fourth-corner problem. This approach allowed us to describe the trait-environment relationship and provides an intuitive matrix of environment by trait interaction coefficients. We could then quantify the strength and direction of associations between plant traits, species life-forms and environmental factors in two alpine plant communities over nine years post-fire. Initially, the fire drastically reduced vegetation cover and species density to very low levels. The fourth-corner analysis interaction coefficients indicated that over the course of the nine-year study a high abundance of graminoids, a low abundance of shrubs, tall species and those with high leaf dry matter content had the strongest associations with the two plant communities. We also found evidence for functional homogenisation between these two communities using this novel technique. Analysing plant traits and species responses post-fire in this manner can be used to infer the ecological processes driving shifts in vegetation.

  11. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  12. Analysis of extreme hydrometric values in the nuclear power plants siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, H.R.; Maggio, G.E.; Tripoli, C.R.

    1983-01-01

    The atucha nuclear power plants are located on the right shore of the Parana de las Palmas river in the entire transition between a fluvial regime and other of tides. Since the disponibility of cooling water is one of the factors to take into account when choosing the nuclear power plant site, it is essential to perform a probabilistic study of extreme hydrometric values. Deterministic and historical analysis should be done to complete the studies already mentioned, in order to establish the values of probable maximum floods. From the application of these methods, it is concluded that the site of the Atucha nuclear power plants constitutes a hydrometric singularity, so that, an optimization has been obtained from that point of view. (Author) [es

  13. Quantitative strain analysis of surfaces and interfaces using extremely asymmetric x-ray diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimoto, Koichi; Emoto, Takashi

    2010-01-01

    Strain can reduce carrier mobility and the reliability of electronic devices and affect the growth mode of thin films and the stability of nanometer-scale crystals. To control lattice strain, a technique for measuring the minute lattice strain at surfaces and interfaces is needed. Recently, an extremely asymmetric x-ray diffraction method has been developed for this purpose. By employing Darwin's dynamical x-ray diffraction theory, quantitative evaluation of strain at surfaces and interfaces becomes possible. In this paper, we review our quantitative strain analysis studies on native SiO 2 /Si interfaces, reconstructed Si surfaces, Ni/Si(111)-H interfaces, sputtered III-V compound semiconductor surfaces, high-k/Si interfaces, and Au ion-implanted Si. (topical review)

  14. Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of various aspects of the wave climate at a wave energy test site is essential for the development of reliable and efficient wave energy conversion technology. This paper presents studies of the wave climate based on nine years of wave observations from the 2005–2013 period measured with a wave measurement buoy at the Lysekil wave energy test site located off the west coast of Sweden. A detailed analysis of the wave statistics is investigated to reveal the characteristics of the wave climate at this specific test site. The long-term extreme waves are estimated from applying the Peak over Threshold (POT method on the measured wave data. The significant wave height and the maximum wave height at the test site for different return periods are also compared. In this study, a new approach using a mixed-distribution model is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the significant wave height and it shows an impressive goodness of fit to wave data from the test site. The mixed-distribution model is also applied to measured wave data from four other sites and it provides an illustration of the general applicability of the proposed model. The methodologies used in this paper can be applied to general wave climate analysis of wave energy test sites to estimate extreme waves for the survivability assessment of wave energy converters and characterize the long wave climate to forecast the wave energy resource of the test sites and the energy production of the wave energy converters.

  15. Meta-analysis of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of lower extremity vascular trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Z B; Yet, B; Glasgow, S; Cole, E; Marsh, W; Brohi, K; Rasmussen, T E; Tai, N R M

    2015-04-01

    Lower extremity vascular trauma (LEVT) is a major cause of amputation. A clear understanding of prognostic factors for amputation is important to inform surgical decision-making, patient counselling and risk stratification. The aim was to develop an understanding of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of LEVT. A systematic review was conducted to identify potential prognostic factors. Bayesian meta-analysis was used to calculate an absolute (pooled proportion) and relative (pooled odds ratio, OR) measure of the amputation risk for each factor. Forty-five studies, totalling 3187 discrete LEVT repairs, were included. The overall amputation rate was 10·0 (95 per cent credible interval 7·4 to 13·1) per cent. Significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation included: associated major soft tissue injury (26 versus 8 per cent for no soft tissue injury; OR 5·80), compartment syndrome (28 versus 6 per cent; OR 5·11), multiple arterial injuries (18 versus 9 per cent; OR 4·85), duration of ischaemia exceeding 6 h (24 versus 5 per cent; OR 4·40), associated fracture (14 versus 2 per cent; OR 4·30), mechanism of injury (blast 19 per cent, blunt 16 per cent, penetrating 5 per cent), anatomical site of injury (iliac 18 per cent, popliteal 14 per cent, tibial 10 per cent, femoral 4 per cent), age over 55 years (16 versus 9 per cent; OR 3·03) and sex (men 7 per cent versus women 8 per cent; OR 0·64). Shock and nerve or venous injuries were not significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation. A significant proportion of patients who undergo lower extremity vascular trauma repair will require secondary amputation. This meta-analysis describes significant prognostic factors needed to inform surgical judgement, risk assessment and patient counselling. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The use of geoinformatic data and spatial analysis to predict faecal pollution during extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Ray; Purnell, Sarah; Ebdon, James; Nnane, Daniel; Taylor, Huw

    2013-04-01

    be a major factor contributing to increased levels of FIO. This study identifies areas within the catchment that are likely to demonstrate elevated erosion rates during extreme precipitation events, which are likely to result in raised levels of FIO. The results also demonstrate that increases in the human faecal marker were associated with the discharge points of wastewater treatment works, and that levels of the marker increased whenever the works discharged untreated wastewaters during extreme precipitation. Spatial analysis also highlighted locations where human faecal pollution was present in areas away from wastewater treatment plants, highlighting the potential significance of inputs from septic tanks and other un-sewered domestic wastewater systems. Increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in many parts of Europe are likely to result in increased levels of water pollution from both point- and diffuse-sources, increasing the input of pathogens into surface waters, and elevating the health risks to downstream consumers of abstracted drinking water. This study suggests an approach that integrates water microbiology and geoinformatic data to support a 'prediction and prevention' approach, in place of the traditional focus on water quality monitoring. This work may therefore make a significant contribution to future European water resource management and health protection.

  17. Disturbing Femininity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvenegård-Lassen, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    it comes to femininity – in need of management. Based on an analysis of the newspaper coverage of the elec-tion, I argue that highlighting gender (in)equality as either an important political issue or as something that conditions the possibilities of taking up a position as politician was evaluated...

  18. Hybrid Cascading Outage Analysis of Extreme Events with Optimized Corrective Actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Holzer, Jesse T.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Huang, Qiuhua; Ke, Xinda

    2017-10-19

    Power system are vulnerable to extreme contingencies (like an outage of a major generating substation) that can cause significant generation and load loss and can lead to further cascading outages of other transmission facilities and generators in the system. Some cascading outages are seen within minutes following a major contingency, which may not be captured exclusively using the dynamic simulation of the power system. The utilities plan for contingencies either based on dynamic or steady state analysis separately which may not accurately capture the impact of one process on the other. We address this gap in cascading outage analysis by developing Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) that can analyze hybrid dynamic and steady state behavior of the power system, including protection system models in dynamic simulations, and simulating corrective actions in post-transient steady state conditions. One of the important implemented steady state processes is to mimic operator corrective actions to mitigate aggravated states caused by dynamic cascading. This paper presents an Optimal Power Flow (OPF) based formulation for selecting corrective actions that utility operators can take during major contingency and thus automate the hybrid dynamic-steady state cascading outage process. The improved DCAT framework with OPF based corrective actions is demonstrated on IEEE 300 bus test system.

  19. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  20. Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

    2010-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

  1. Extreme value analysis of meteorological parameters observed during the period 1994-2001 at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramkumar, S.; Dole, M.L.; Nankar, D.P.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

    2003-01-01

    In the design of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand such situations. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site for the period 1994 -2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, maximum wind speed and gust, and maximum rainfall in a month, in a day, in an hour and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that annual rainfall, maximum monthly rainfall, minimum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 10 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -1 distribution whereas maximum daily rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall, maxinlum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 30 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -2 distribution function. There is no difference in correlation coefficients and fit both extreme value distribution function. Co-efficients of the distribution functions for each variable are established. Extreme values of parameters corresponding to return periods of 50 and 100 years are derived. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design basis values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in and around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

  2. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  3. Transcriptome, carbohydrate, and phytohormone analysis of Petunia hybrida reveals a complex disturbance of plant functional integrity under mild chilling stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauerfeind, Martin Andreas; Winkelmann, Traud; Franken, Philipp; Druege, Uwe

    2015-01-01

    Cultivation of chilling-tolerant ornamental crops at lower temperature could reduce the energy demands of heated greenhouses. To provide a better understanding of how sub-optimal temperatures (12°C vs. 16°C) affect growth of the sensitive Petunia hybrida cultivar ‘SweetSunshine Williams’, the transcriptome, carbohydrate metabolism, and phytohormone homeostasis were monitored in aerial plant parts over 4 weeks by use of a microarray, enzymatic assays and GC-MS/MS. The data revealed three consecutive phases of chilling response. The first days were marked by a strong accumulation of sugars, particularly in source leaves, preferential up-regulation of genes in the same tissue and down-regulation of several genes in the shoot apex, especially those involved in the abiotic stress response. The midterm phase featured a partial normalization of carbohydrate levels and gene expression. After 3 weeks of chilling exposure, a new stabilized balance was established. Reduced hexose levels in the shoot apex, reduced ratios of sugar levels between the apex and source leaves and a higher apical sucrose/hexose ratio, associated with decreased activity and expression of cell wall invertase, indicate that prolonged chilling induced sugar accumulation in source leaves at the expense of reduced sugar transport to and reduced sucrose utilization in the shoot. This was associated with reduced levels of indole-3-acetic acid and abscisic acid in the apex and high numbers of differentially, particularly up-regulated genes, especially in the source leaves, including those regulating histones, ethylene action, transcription factors, and a jasmonate-ZIM-domain protein. Transcripts of one Jumonji C domain containing protein and one expansin accumulated in source leaves throughout the chilling period. The results reveal a dynamic and complex disturbance of plant function in response to mild chilling, opening new perspectives for the comparative analysis of differently tolerant cultivars

  4. Improving Our Ability to Assess Land Management and Disturbance by Linking Traditional Ecosystem Measurements with UAV Spectral Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutter, L., Jr.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Smith, W. K.; Minor, R. L.; Raub, H.; Jimenez, J. R.; Wolsiffer, S. K.; Escobedo, E. B.; Smith, J.

    2017-12-01

    Drylands are dynamic landscapes of mixed plant functional types that vary in their response to abiotic and biotic drivers of change. Within these regions, woody plant-herbaceous relationships have generally been viewed as negative: woody plants within these ecosystems have been shown to negatively impact herbaceous growth by taking advantage of both deeper stored water and intercepting near surface moisture after precipitation events. There has been a long-invested effort to eliminate woody plants in many areas of the world, and analyzing and assessing land management decisions has historically required high monetary and time inputs. Unfortunately, both management practices and disturbances from fire can leave a very heterogeneous landscape, making assessment of their impacts difficult to assess. This study has attempted to address the effectiveness of two commonly used treatments within woody plant invaded areas, fire and herbicide application, by linking plant physiological measurements with the emerging technology of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) spectral analysis. Taking advantage of a USDA-ARS sponsored herbicide treatment in 2016 and the accidental Sawmill Fire of 2017, both within the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER) of Southern Arizona, USA, we linked spectral data collected via UAV with ground-based photosynthetic measurements. Given the high repeatability, and both spatial and spectral resolution of low-flying UAV measurements, we found that there are a variety of spectral indices that can be derived and accurately linked with traditional ecological measurements. Results and techniques from this study can be immediately applied to land management plans as well as be improved for other ecological parameters, such as those obtained from long-term study sites containing eddy covariance towers.

  5. Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicio, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn.

  6. Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melicio, R. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-04-15

    As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  7. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

    2009-01-01

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  8. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

    2009-09-15

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  9. Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

    2017-11-01

    The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

  10. Disturbing Femininity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Hvenegård-Lassen

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available When Helle Thorning-Schmidt in 2011 became the first female Prime Minister in Denmark, this “victory for the women” was praised in highly celebratory tones in Danish newspapers. The celebration involved a paradoxical representation of gen-der as simultaneously irrelevant to politics and – when it comes to femininity – in need of management. Based on an analysis of the newspaper coverage of the elec-tion, I argue that highlighting gender (inequality as either an important political issue or as something that conditions the possibilities of taking up a position as politician was evaluated as a performative speech act, i.e. an act that creates the trouble it names. Ruling out gender equality as relevant was, however, continually interrupted by comments on how Thorning-Schmidt and other female politicians perform gender in ways that fit or do not fit with “doing politician”. These com-ments tended to concern the styling of bodies and behaviour and followed well known – or sticky – gendered scripts.

  11. Multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation and upper extremity rehabilitation in stroke: A review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesco Triccas, L; Burridge, J H; Hughes, A M; Pickering, R M; Desikan, M; Rothwell, J C; Verheyden, G

    2016-01-01

    To systematically review the methodology in particular treatment options and outcomes and the effect of multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) with rehabilitation programmes for upper extremity recovery post stroke. A search was conducted for randomised controlled trials involving tDCS and rehabilitation for the upper extremity in stroke. Quality of included studies was analysed using the Modified Downs and Black form. The extent of, and effect of variation in treatment parameters such as anodal, cathodal and bi-hemispheric tDCS on upper extremity outcome measures of impairment and activity were analysed using meta-analysis. Nine studies (371 participants with acute, sub-acute and chronic stroke) were included. Different methodologies of tDCS and upper extremity intervention, outcome measures and timing of assessments were identified. Real tDCS combined with rehabilitation had a small non-significant effect of +0.11 (p=0.44) and +0.24 (p=0.11) on upper extremity impairments and activities at post-intervention respectively. Various tDCS methods have been used in stroke rehabilitation. The evidence so far is not statistically significant, but is suggestive of, at best, a small beneficial effect on upper extremity impairment. Future research should focus on which patients and rehabilitation programmes are likely to respond to different tDCS regimes. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A multi-century analysis of disturbance dynamics in pine-oak forests of the Missouri Ozark Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad King; Rose-Marie. Muzika

    2013-01-01

    Using dendrochronology and growth release approaches, we analyzed the disturbance history of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mich.) white oak (Quercus alba L.) forests in the Missouri Ozark Highlands. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify growth release events using living and remnant shortleaf pine and white oak, (2)...

  13. Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

    2010-01-01

    We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

  14. Stenting for peripheral artery disease of the lower extremities: an evidence-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    In January 2010, the Medical Advisory Secretariat received an application from University Health Network to provide an evidentiary platform on stenting as a treatment management for peripheral artery disease. The purpose of this health technology assessment is to examine the effectiveness of primary stenting as a treatment management for peripheral artery disease of the lower extremities. CONDITION AND TARGET POPULATION Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a progressive disease occurring as a result of plaque accumulation (atherosclerosis) in the arterial system that carries blood to the extremities (arms and legs) as well as vital organs. The vessels that are most affected by PAD are the arteries of the lower extremities, the aorta, the visceral arterial branches, the carotid arteries and the arteries of the upper limbs. In the lower extremities, PAD affects three major arterial segments i) aortic-iliac, ii) femoro-popliteal (FP) and iii) infra-popliteal (primarily tibial) arteries. The disease is commonly classified clinically as asymptomatic claudication, rest pain and critical ischemia. Although the prevalence of PAD in Canada is not known, it is estimated that 800,000 Canadians have PAD. The 2007 Trans Atlantic Intersociety Consensus (TASC) II Working Group for the Management of Peripheral Disease estimated that the prevalence of PAD in Europe and North America to be 27 million, of whom 88,000 are hospitalizations involving lower extremities. A higher prevalence of PAD among elderly individuals has been reported to range from 12% to 29%. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) estimated that the prevalence of PAD is 14.5% among individuals 70 years of age and over. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors associated with PAD include advanced age, male gender, family history, smoking, diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia. PAD is a strong predictor of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and cardiovascular death. Annually, approximately

  15. Taxonomic analysis of extremely halophilic archaea isolated from 56-years-old dead sea brine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arahal, D R; Gutiérrez, M C; Volcani, B E; Ventosa, A

    2000-10-01

    A taxonomic study comprising both phenotypic and genotypic characterization, has been carried out on a total of 158 extremely halophilic aerobic archaeal strains. These strains were isolated from enrichments prepared from Dead Sea water samples dating from 1936 that were collected by B. E. Volcani for the demonstration of microbial life in the Dead Sea. The isolates were examined for 126 morphological, physiological, biochemical and nutritional tests. Numerical analysis of the data, by using the S(J) coefficient and UPGMA clustering method, showed that the isolates clustered into six phenons. Twenty-two out of the 158 strains used in this study were characterized previously (ARAHAL et al., 1996) and were placed into five phenotypic groups. The genotypic study included both the determination of the guanineplus-cytosine content of the DNA and DNA-DNA hybridization studies. For this purpose, representative strains from the six phenons were chosen. These groups were found to represent some members of three different genera - Haloarcula (phenons A, B, and C), Haloferax (phenons D and E) and Halobacterium (phenon F) - of the family Halobacteriaceae, some of them never reported to occur in the Dead Sea, such as Haloarcula hispanica, while Haloferax volcanii (phenons D and E) was described in the Dead Sea by studies carried out several decades later than Volcani's work.

  16. Analysis of buried interfaces in multilayer mirrors using grazing incidence extreme ultraviolet reflectometry near resonance edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sertsu, M G; Nardello, M; Giglia, A; Corso, A J; Maurizio, C; Juschkin, L; Nicolosi, P

    2015-12-10

    Accurate measurements of optical properties of multilayer (ML) mirrors and chemical compositions of interdiffusion layers are particularly challenging to date. In this work, an innovative and nondestructive experimental characterization method for multilayers is discussed. The method is based on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) reflectivity measurements performed on a wide grazing incidence angular range at an energy near the absorption resonance edge of low-Z elements in the ML components. This experimental method combined with the underlying physical phenomenon of abrupt changes of optical constants near EUV resonance edges enables us to characterize optical and structural properties of multilayers with high sensitivity. A major advantage of the method is to perform detailed quantitative analysis of buried interfaces of multilayer structures in a nondestructive and nonimaging setup. Coatings of Si/Mo multilayers on a Si substrate with period d=16.4  nm, number of bilayers N=25, and different capping structures are investigated. Stoichiometric compositions of Si-on-Mo and Mo-on-Si interface diffusion layers are derived. Effects of surface oxidation reactions and carbon contaminations on the optical constants of capping layers and the impact of neighboring atoms' interactions on optical responses of Si and Mo layers are discussed.

  17. Risk factors of extubation failure in extremely low birth weight infants: a five year retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chao-Yi; Su, Bai-Horng; Lin, Tsung-Wen; Lin, Hung-Chih; Li, Tsai-Chung; Wang, Nai-Phon

    2002-01-01

    Extubation failure is one of the most serious complications in extremely low birth weight infants (ELBWI) on mechanical ventilation therapy. We performed a 5-year retrospective analysis to realize the status of extubation failure in ELBWI. Extubation failure was defined as requirements of re-intubation within 72 hours after extubation. The extubation failure rate was 21% (29/138). The mean birth body weight was 808.3 +/- 140.4 gm. The mean gestational age was 25.8 +/- 1.2 wks. The incidence of chronic lung disease (CLD) in infants with extubation failure was 100% (29/29). Apnea of prematurity 49% (14/29) and post-extubation atelectasis 39% (11/29) were the most common reasons for reintubation. The major microbiology findings which correlated with nosocomial pneumonia in infants with extubation failure were Acinetobacter baumanni (21%), Klebsiella pneumonia (21%), Pseudomonas aeroginosa (14%), and Methicillin resistant staphylococcus aureus (14%). In conclusion, post-extubation atelectasis and apnea were the most common reasons for reintubation. ELBWI with extubation failure had higher incidences of post-extubation atelectasis, CLD, and nosocomial pneumonia. Further prospective studies are needed in order to clarify the appropriate extubation program for ELBWI and to prevent post-extubation atelectasis and nosocomial pneumonia.

  18. A comparative analysis of support vector machines and extreme learning machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xueyi; Gao, Chuanhou; Li, Ping

    2012-09-01

    The theory of extreme learning machines (ELMs) has recently become increasingly popular. As a new learning algorithm for single-hidden-layer feed-forward neural networks, an ELM offers the advantages of low computational cost, good generalization ability, and ease of implementation. Hence the comparison and model selection between ELMs and other kinds of state-of-the-art machine learning approaches has become significant and has attracted many research efforts. This paper performs a comparative analysis of the basic ELMs and support vector machines (SVMs) from two viewpoints that are different from previous works: one is the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension, and the other is their performance under different training sample sizes. It is shown that the VC dimension of an ELM is equal to the number of hidden nodes of the ELM with probability one. Additionally, their generalization ability and computational complexity are exhibited with changing training sample size. ELMs have weaker generalization ability than SVMs for small sample but can generalize as well as SVMs for large sample. Remarkably, great superiority in computational speed especially for large-scale sample problems is found in ELMs. The results obtained can provide insight into the essential relationship between them, and can also serve as complementary knowledge for their past experimental and theoretical comparisons. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Model of analysis of maximum loads in wind generators produced by extreme winds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrera – Sánchez, Omar; Schellong, Wolfgang; González – Fernández, Vladimir

    2010-01-01

    The use of the wind energy by means of the wind turbines in areas of high risk of occurrence of Hurricanes comes being an important challenge for the designers of wind farm at world for some years. The wind generator is not usually designed to support this type of phenomena, for this reason the areas of high incidence of tropical hurricanes of the planning are excluded, that which, in occasions disables the use of this renewable source of energy totally, either because the country is very small, or because it coincides the area of more potential fully with that of high risk. To counteract this situation, a model of analysis of maxims loads has been elaborated taken place the extreme winds in wind turbines of great behavior. This model has the advantage of determining, in a chosen place, for the installation of a wind farm, the micro-areas with higher risk of wind loads above the acceptable for the standard classes of wind turbines. (author)

  20. Risk-Cost Estimation of On-Site Wastewater Treatment System Failures Using Extreme Value Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Laura E; Silverstein, JoAnn; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2017-05-01

      Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

  1. Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajayakumar, J.; Shook, E.; Turner, V. K.

    2017-10-01

    With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE). SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the "North American storm complex" in December 2015, the "snowstorm Jonas" in January 2016, the "West Virginia floods" in June 2016, and the "Hurricane Matthew" in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI) for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with social media data and will be useful

  2. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  3. Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Influenza in Massachusetts: A Case-Crossover Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    BACKGROUND: Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions – however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result...

  4. Technical Guidance for Hazardous Analysis, Emergency Planning for Extremely Hazardous Substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    This current guide supplements NRT-1 by providing technical assistance to LEPCs to assess the lethal hazards related to potential airborne releases of extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) as designated under Section 302 of Title Ill of SARA.

  5. Detecting the Land-Cover Changes Induced by Large-Physical Disturbances Using Landscape Metrics, Spatial Sampling, Simulation and Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hone-Jay Chu

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the study are to integrate the conditional Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS and spatial analysis in remotely sensed images, to monitor the effects of large chronological disturbances on spatial characteristics of landscape changes including spatial heterogeneity and variability. The multiple NDVI images demonstrate that spatial patterns of disturbed landscapes were successfully delineated by spatial analysis such as variogram, Moran’I and landscape metrics in the study area. The hybrid method delineates the spatial patterns and spatial variability of landscapes caused by these large disturbances. The cLHS approach is applied to select samples from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI images from SPOT HRV images in the Chenyulan watershed of Taiwan, and then SGS with sufficient samples is used to generate maps of NDVI images. In final, the NDVI simulated maps are verified using indexes such as the correlation coefficient and mean absolute error (MAE. Therefore, the statistics and spatial structures of multiple NDVI images present a very robust behavior, which advocates the use of the index for the quantification of the landscape spatial patterns and land cover change. In addition, the results transferred by Open Geospatial techniques can be accessed from web-based and end-user applications of the watershed management.

  6. Multivariate Regression Analysis and Statistical Modeling for Summer Extreme Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme precipitation is likely to be one of the most severe meteorological disasters in China; however, studies on the physical factors affecting precipitation extremes and corresponding prediction models are not accurately available. From a new point of view, the sensible heat flux (SHF and latent heat flux (LHF, which have significant impacts on summer extreme rainfall in Yangtze River basin (YRB, have been quantified and then selections of the impact factors are conducted. Firstly, a regional extreme precipitation index was applied to determine Regions of Significant Correlation (RSC by analyzing spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between this index and SHF, LHF, and sea surface temperature (SST on global ocean scale; then the time series of SHF, LHF, and SST in RSCs during 1967–2010 were selected. Furthermore, other factors that significantly affect variations in precipitation extremes over YRB were also selected. The methods of multiple stepwise regression and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV were utilized to analyze and test influencing factors and statistical prediction model. The correlation coefficient between observed regional extreme index and model simulation result is 0.85, with significant level at 99%. This suggested that the forecast skill was acceptable although many aspects of the prediction model should be improved.

  7. A Flexible Nonlinear Modelling Framework for Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology and Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, A. J.

    2009-12-01

    Parameters in a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time, or is dependent on time, then the GEV-CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Due to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV-CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. A hierarchy of models can be defined by adjusting three aspects of the GEV-CDN model architecture: (i) by specifying either a linear or a nonlinear hidden-layer activation function; (ii) by adjusting the number of hidden-layer nodes; or (iii) by disconnecting weights leading to output-layer nodes. To illustrate, five GEV-CDN models are shown here in order of increasing complexity for the case of a single covariate, which, in this case, is assumed to be time. The shape parameter is assumed to be constant in all models, although this is not a requirement of the GEV-CDN framework.

  8. Analysis of radiographic bone parameters throughout the surgical lengthening and deformity correction of extremities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atanasov, Nenad; Poposka, Anastasika; Samardziski, Milan; Kamnar, Viktor

    2014-01-01

    Radiographic examination of extremities in surgical lengthening and/or correction of deformities is of crucial importance for the assessment of new bone formation. The purpose of this study is to confirm the diagnostic value of radiography in precise detection of bone parameters in various lengthening or correction stages in patients treated by limb-lengthening and deformity correction. 50 patients were treated by the Ilizarov method of limb lengthening or deformity correction at the University Orthopaedic Surgery Clinic in Skopje, and analysed over the period from 2006 to 2012. The patients were divided into two groups. The first group consisted of 27 patients with limb-lengthening because of congenital shortening. The second group consisted of 23 patients treated for acquired limb deformities. The results in both groups were received in three stages of new bone formation and were based on the appearance of 3 radiographic parameters at the distraction/compression site. The differences between the presence of all radiographic bone parameters in different stages of new bone formation were statistically signficant in both groups, especially the presence of the cortical margin in the first group (Cochran Q=34.43, df=2, p=0.00000). The comparative analysis between the two groups showed a statistically significant difference in the presence of initial bone elements and cystic formations only in the first stage. Almost no statistical significance in the differences between both groups of patients with regard to 3 radiographic parameters in 3 stages of new bone formation, indicates a minor influence of the etiopathogenetic background on the new bone formation in patients treated by gradual lengthening or correction of limb deformities.

  9. The influence of experimental wind disturbance on forest fuels and fire characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery B. Cannon; Joseph J. O' Brien; Louise Loudermilk; Matthew Dickinson; Chris J. Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Current theory in disturbance ecology predicts that extreme disturbances in rapid succession can lead to dramatic changes in species composition or ecosystem processes due to interactions among disturbances. However, the extent to which less catastrophic, yet chronic, disturbances such as wind damage and fire interact is not well studied. In this study, we simulated...

  10. Frequency Analysis of High Flow Extremes in the Yingluoxia Watershed in Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanling Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Statistical modeling of hydrological extremes is significant to the construction of hydraulic engineering. This paper, taking the Yingluoxia watershed as the study area, compares the annual maximum (AM series and the peaks over a threshold (POT series in order to study the hydrological extremes, examines the stationarity and independence assumptions for the two series, and discusses the estimations and uncertainties of return levels from the two series using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV and Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD models. For comparison, the return levels from all threshold excesses with considering the extremal index are also estimated. For the POT series, the threshold is selected by examining the mean excess plot and the stability of the parameter estimates and by using common-sense. The serial correlation is reduced by filtering out a set of dependent threshold excesses. Results show that both series are approximately stationary and independent. The GEV model fits the AM series well and the GPD model fits the POT series well. The estimated return levels are fairly comparable for the AM series, the POT series, and all threshold excesses with considering the extremal index, with the difference being less than 10% for return periods longer than 10 years. The uncertainties of the estimated return levels are the highest for the AM series, and next for the POT series and then for all threshold excesses series in turn.

  11. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez L, D

    2009-01-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  12. Reconceptualizing 'extremism' and 'moderation': from categories of analysis to categories of practice in the construction of collective identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Nick; Kahani-Hopkins, Vered

    2009-03-01

    Much psychological research employs the categories of extremism and moderation as categories of analysis (e.g. to identify the psychological bases for, and consequences of, holding certain positions). This paper argues these categorizations inevitably reflect one's values and taken-for-granted assumptions about social reality and that their use as analytic categories limits our ability to explore what is really important: social actors' own constructions of social reality. In turn we argue that if we are to focus on this latter, there may be merit in exploring how social actors themselves use the categories of moderation and extremism to construct their own terms of reference. That is we propose to re-conceptualize the categories of moderation and extremism as categories of practice rather than analysis. The utility of this approach is illustrated with qualitative data. We argue that these data illustrate the importance of respecting social actors' own constructions of social reality (rather than imposing our own). Moreover, we argue that categories of moderation and extremism may be employed by social actors in diverse ways to construct different terms of reference and so recruit support for different identity-related projects.

  13. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  14. Analysis of extreme drinking in patients with alcohol dependence using Pareto regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sourish; Harel, Ofer; Dey, Dipak K; Covault, Jonathan; Kranzler, Henry R

    2010-05-20

    We developed a novel Pareto regression model with an unknown shape parameter to analyze extreme drinking in patients with Alcohol Dependence (AD). We used the generalized linear model (GLM) framework and the log-link to include the covariate information through the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution. We proposed a Bayesian method based on Ridge prior and Zellner's g-prior for the regression coefficients. Simulation study indicated that the proposed Bayesian method performs better than the existing likelihood-based inference for the Pareto regression.We examined two issues of importance in the study of AD. First, we tested whether a single nucleotide polymorphism within GABRA2 gene, which encodes a subunit of the GABA(A) receptor, and that has been associated with AD, influences 'extreme' alcohol intake and second, the efficacy of three psychotherapies for alcoholism in treating extreme drinking behavior. We found an association between extreme drinking behavior and GABRA2. We also found that, at baseline, men with a high-risk GABRA2 allele had a significantly higher probability of extreme drinking than men with no high-risk allele. However, men with a high-risk allele responded to the therapy better than those with two copies of the low-risk allele. Women with high-risk alleles also responded to the therapy better than those with two copies of the low-risk allele, while women who received the cognitive behavioral therapy had better outcomes than those receiving either of the other two therapies. Among men, motivational enhancement therapy was the best for the treatment of the extreme drinking behavior. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Coronary arterial Disease associated with arteriosclerosis in lower extremity: Angiographic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji Hye; Chung, Jin Wook; Lee, Seon Kyu; Han, Joon Koo; Park, Jae Hyung; Kim, Jae Seung; Han, Man Chung

    1993-01-01

    We performed both peripheral and coronary angiographies in 52 patients with an arteriosclerosis in lower extremities. The severity of arteriosclerotic narrowing of the coronary and peripheral arteries were compared on angiographies. An angiographic vascular score(AVS, 0-5) reflecting the number and the degree of stenosis in 12 lower extremity arteries and three major coronary arteries was assigned to each angiogram and the sun of scores in the lower extremity arteries was compared with the incidence of significant coronary artery disease (more than grade 3) and coronary score. Relation of incidence and severity of vascular stenosis and risk factors (diabetes metallitus, hypertension, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia) was also analyzed. Thirty-four of 52 patients (65%) had an angiographically significant coronary artery disease. Thirteen of these 34 patients (38%) had no clinical symptom and sign of the ischemic heart disease. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence and severity of coronary artery disease between high (more than 30) and low AVS group in lower extremity (p>0.14). All patients had at least one risk factor and 49 of 52 patients (94%) had multiple risk factors. Coronary angiography was normal in there patients with only one risk factors, and angiographically significant coronary artery disease existed in nine of 16 cases (56.3%) with two risk factors. 13 of 17 case (76.5%) with three risk factors, and 12 of 16 cases (75.0%) with all four risk factors. There were no significant correlations between individual risk factors and incidence, severity of arteriosclerosis in coronary and lower extremity arteries. In conclusion, angiographic evaluation of the coronary artery disease in patients with lower extremity arteriosclerosis is necessary because of the high chance of coronary artery disease and difficulty in the prediction of coronary artery disease with a severity of the peripheral arteriosclerosis, presence of various risk

  16. Acoustic-Seismic Coupling of Broadband Signals - Analysis of Potential Disturbances during CTBT On-Site Inspection Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebsch, Mattes; Altmann, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    For the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) the precise localisation of possible underground nuclear explosion sites is important. During an on-site inspection (OSI) sensitive seismic measurements of aftershocks can be performed, which, however, can be disturbed by other signals. To improve the quality and effectiveness of these measurements it is essential to understand those disturbances so that they can be reduced or prevented. In our work we focus on disturbing signals caused by airborne sources: When the sound of aircraft (as often used by the inspectors themselves) hits the ground, it propagates through pores in the soil. Its energy is transferred to the ground and soil vibrations are created which can mask weak aftershock signals. The understanding of the coupling of acoustic waves to the ground is still incomplete. However, it is necessary to improve the performance of an OSI, e.g. to address potential consequences for the sensor placement, the helicopter trajectories etc. We present our recent advances in this field. We performed several measurements to record sound pressure and soil velocity produced by various sources, e.g. broadband excitation by jet aircraft passing overhead and signals artificially produced by a speaker. For our experimental set-up microphones were placed close to the ground and geophones were buried in different depths in the soil. Several sensors were shielded from the directly incident acoustic signals by a box coated with acoustic damping material. While sound pressure under the box was strongly reduced, the soil velocity measured under the box was just slightly smaller than outside of it. Thus these soil vibrations were mostly created outside the box and travelled through the soil to the sensors. This information is used to estimate characteristic propagation lengths of the acoustically induced signals in the soil. In the seismic data we observed interference patterns which are likely caused by the

  17. Spatial analysis of extreme precipitation deficit as an index for atmospheric drought in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Sepideh; Van De Vyver, Hans; Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    The growing concern among the climate scientists is that the frequency of weather extremes will increase as a result of climate change. European society, for example, is particularly vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and wind storms, as seen in recent years [1,2]. A more than 50% of the land is occupied by managed ecosystem (agriculture, forestry) in Belgium. Moreover, among the many extreme weather conditions, drought counts to have a substantial impact on the agriculture and ecosystem of the affected region, because its most immediate consequence is a fall in crop production. Besides the technological advances, a reliable estimation of weather conditions plays a crucial role in improving the agricultural productivity. The above mentioned reasons provide a strong motivation for a research on the drought and its impacts on the economical and agricultural aspects in Belgium. The main purpose of the presented work is to map atmospheric drought Return-Levels (RL), as first insight for agricultural drought, employing spatial modelling approaches. The likelihood of future drought is studied on the basis of precipitation deficit indices for four vegetation types: water (W), grass (G), deciduous (D) and coniferous forests (C) is considered. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) [3,4,5] as a branch of probability and statistics, is dedicated to characterize the behaviour of extreme observations. The tail behaviour of the EVT distributions provide important features about return levels. EVT distributions are applicable in many study areas such as: hydrology, environmental research and meteorology, insurance and finance. Spatial Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as a branch of EVT, are applied to annual maxima of drought at 13 hydro-meteorological stations across Belgium. Superiority of the spatial GEV model is that a region can be modelled merging the individual time series of

  18. Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

    2017-10-01

    With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

  19. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I.D.; Nicholls, R.J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.B.A.

    2017-01-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future

  20. Frenzied Attacks: A Micro-sociological Analysis of the Emotional Dynamics of Extreme Youth Violence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weenink, D.

    2014-01-01

    Inspired by phenomenological and interactionist studies of youth violence, this article offers an empirical evaluation of Collins's micro-sociological theory of violence. The main question is whether situations of extreme violence have distinct situational dynamics. Based on analyses of 159

  1. A descriptive analysis of nontuberculous mycobacterial infections (NTM of the upper extremity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Al-Knawy

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: Diagnosis of NTM infection of the upper extremity is often delayed due to its indolent presentation and lack of clinical suspicion. Healthcare professionals should be aware of the increasing incidence of soft tissue NTM infection after percutaneous injury, especially in immunosuppressed patients, to improve diagnostic promptness and treatment outcome.

  2. Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jin; Islam, A R M Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

    2017-10-01

    With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

  3. Analysis of extreme sea level along the east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Sundar, D.; Blackman, D.

    the r-largest annual maximum method, the joint probability method (JPM) as well as the revised joint probability method (RJPM) was performed to estimate the return periods of extreme sea level. JPM gave an underestimate of levels for long return periods...

  4. Immigration and Extreme-Right Voting in France: A Contextual Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Elections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rojon, S.

    2013-01-01

    Whereas Realistic Conflict Theory claims that there is a negative relationship between the share of immigrants and the level of support for the extreme-right, Contact Theory claims that the relationship is positive. Using the technique of multilevel modelling, I will challenge these mutually

  5. Frenzied attacks. A micro-sociological analysis of the emotional dynamics of extreme youth violence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weenink, D.

    2014-01-01

    Inspired by phenomenological and interactionist studies of youth violence, this article offers an empirical evaluation of Collins's micro-sociological theory of violence. The main question is whether situations of extreme violence have distinct situational dynamics. Based on analyses of 159

  6. Analysis of farmers’ adaptation to weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boansi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There have been recent incidences of weather extremes in the West African Sudan Savanna and farmers have responded through implementation of relevant adaptation strategies. For a deeper insight into farmers’ adaptation to climatic shocks, this study documents farmers’ perception of recent changes in the local climate, and identifies factors that influence the number and choice of strategies implemented. Interdependencies among strategies are explored and joint and marginal probabilities of adoption estimated. Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso are used as the case study regions. These regions were selected due to extreme reliance of inhabitants on agriculture for sustenance, and their recent exposure to weather extremes. Through estimation of a Poisson regression and multivariate probit model to identify the major factors that influence the number and choice of strategies adopted, we discover that, limited access to credit, markets, and extension services, smaller cropland area, and low level of mechanization could impede effective adaptation to weather extremes. To enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity, policy makers and various stakeholders need to contribute towards improving farmers’ access to credit, markets, and extension services, and implement measures to promote mechanization.

  7. Using qualimetric engineering and extremal analysis to optimize a proton exchange membrane fuel cell stack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseris, George J.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We consider the optimal configuration of a PEMFC stack. • We utilize qualimetric engineering tools (Taguchi screening, regression analysis). • We achieve analytical solution on a restructured power-law fitting. • We discuss the Pt-cost involvement in the unit and area minimization scope. - Abstract: The optimal configuration of the proton exchange membrane fuel-cell (PEMFC) stack has received attention recently because of its potential use as an isolated energy distributor for household needs. In this work, the original complex problem for generating an optimal PEMFC stack based on the number of cell units connected in series and parallel arrangements as well as on the cell area is revisited. A qualimetric engineering strategy is formulated which is based on quick profiling the PEMFC stack voltage response. Stochastic screening is initiated by employing an L 9 (3 3 ) Taguchi-type OA for partitioning numerically the deterministic expression of the output PEMFC stack voltage such that to facilitate the sizing of the magnitude of the individual effects. The power and current household specifications for the stack system are maintained at the typical settings of 200 W at 12 V, respectively. The minimization of the stack total-area requirement becomes explicit in this work. The relationship of cell voltage against cell area is cast into a power-law model by regression fitting that achieves a coefficient of determination value of 99.99%. Thus, the theoretical formulation simplifies into a non-linear extremal problem with a constrained solution due to a singularity which is solved analytically. The optimal solution requires 22 cell units connected in series where each unit is designed with an area value of 151.4 cm 2 . It is also demonstrated how to visualize the optimal solution using the graphical method of operating lines. The total area of 3270.24 cm 2 becomes a new benchmark for the optimal design of the studied PEMFC stack configuration. It is

  8. A Pervasive Parallel Processing Framework for Data Visualization and Analysis at Extreme Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Kwan-Liu [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2017-02-01

    efficient computation on an exascale computer. This project concludes with a functional prototype containing pervasively parallel algorithms that perform demonstratively well on many-core processors. These algorithms are fundamental for performing data analysis and visualization at extreme scale.

  9. Spectral-analysis-based extraction of land disturbances arising from oil and gas development in diverse landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Lantz, Nicholas; Guindon, Bert; Jiao, Xianfen

    2017-01-01

    Accurate and frequent monitoring of land surface changes arising from oil and gas exploration and extraction is a key requirement for the responsible and sustainable development of these resources. Petroleum deposits typically extend over large geographic regions but much of the infrastructure required for oil and gas recovery takes the form of numerous small-scale features (e.g., well sites, access roads, etc.) scattered over the landscape. Increasing exploitation of oil and gas deposits will increase the presence of these disturbances in heavily populated regions. An object-based approach is proposed to utilize RapidEye satellite imagery to delineate well sites and related access roads in diverse complex landscapes, where land surface changes also arise from other human activities, such as forest logging and agriculture. A simplified object-based change vector approach, adaptable to operational use, is introduced to identify the disturbances on land based on red-green spectral response and spatial attributes of candidate object size and proximity to roads. Testing of the techniques has been undertaken with RapidEye multitemporal imagery in two test sites located at Alberta, Canada: one was a predominant natural forest landscape and the other landscape dominated by intensive agricultural activities. Accuracies of 84% and 73%, respectively, have been achieved for the identification of well site and access road infrastructure of the two sites based on fully automated processing. Limited manual relabeling of selected image segments can improve these accuracies to 95%.

  10. Wavelet Cross-Spectrum Analysis of Multi-Scale Disturbance Instability and Transition on Sharp Cone Hypersonic Boundary Layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jian, Han; Nan, Jiang

    2008-01-01

    Experimental measurement of hypersonic boundary layer stability and transition on a sharp cone with a half angle of 5° is carried out at free-coming stream Mach number 6 in a hypersonic wind tunnel. Mean and fluctuation surface-thermal-flux characteristics of the hypersonic boundary layer flow are measured by Pt-thin-film thermocouple temperature sensors installed at 28 stations on the cone surface along longitudinal direction. At hypersonic speeds, the dominant flow instabilities demonstrate that the growth rate of the second mode tends to exceed that of the low-frequency mode. Wavelet-based cross-spectrum technique is introduced to obtain the multi-scale cross-spectral characteristics of the fluctuating signals in the frequency range of the second mode. Nonlinear interactions both of the second mode disturbance and the first mode disturbance are demonstrated to be dominant instabilities in the initial stage of laminar-turbulence transition for hypersonic shear flow. (fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications))

  11. Radioimmunoassay (RIA), a highly specific, extremely sensitive quantitative method of analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strecker, H; Hachmann, H; Seidel, L [Farbwerke Hoechst A.G., Frankfurt am Main (Germany, F.R.). Radiochemisches Lab.

    1979-02-01

    Radioimmunoassay is an analytical method combining the sensitivity of radioactivity measurements and the specificity of the antigen-antibody-reaction. Thus, substances can be measured in concentrations as low as picograms per milliliter serum besides a millionfold excess of otherwise disturbing material (for example in serum). The method is simple to perform and is at present mainly used in the field of endocrinology. Further areas of possible application are in the diagnosis of infectious disease, drug research, environmental protection, forensic medicine as well as general analytics. Quantities of radioactivity, exclusively used in vitro, are in the nano-Curie range. Therefore the radiation dose is negligible.

  12. Small disturbances stability analysis applied in a radial distribution system with distributed generation units; Analise de estabilidade a pequenos disturbios aplicada em um sistema de distribuicao radial com unidades de geracao distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorca, Daniel Azevedo; Camacho, Jose Roberto [Universidade Federal de Uberlandia (UFU), MG (Brazil). Curso de Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrica

    2008-07-01

    This work investigates the small-disturbance stability of a 30 bus radial distribution system with distributed generation units. This work is realized through the time domain simulations and through the eigenvalue analysis and participation factors. The eigenvalue analysis show that is possible to predict a possible system instability face to a disturbance. The development of this work was stimulated by the increasing of the distributed generation units in the distribution networks. (author)

  13. Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ajayakumar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE. SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the “North American storm complex” in December 2015, the “snowstorm Jonas” in January 2016, the “West Virginia floods” in June 2016, and the “Hurricane Matthew” in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with

  14. Analysis of extreme wind events at Høvsøre and the effect on wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hannesdóttir, Ásta; Kelly, Mark C.; Mann, Jakob

    used to simulate wind turbine response in time domain. The simulations are made for the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine. Load analysis shows that the maximum tilt moment on the tower yaw bearing correlates well with the wind shear of the measurements. When these loads are compared with the extreme...... wind shear load case of the IEC standards, it is seen that they are of similar magnitude and in one case even higher....

  15. Upper Extremity Motor Learning among Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: A Meta-Analysis Evaluating Movement Time in Simple Tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Felix

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Motor learning has been found to occur in the rehabilitation of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD. Through repetitive structured practice of motor tasks, individuals show improved performance, confirming that motor learning has probably taken place. Although a number of studies have been completed evaluating motor learning in people with PD, the sample sizes were small and the improvements were variable. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the ability of people with PD to learn motor tasks. Studies which measured movement time in upper extremity reaching tasks and met the inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that people with PD and neurologically healthy controls both demonstrated motor learning, characterized by a decrease in movement time during upper extremity movements. Movement time improvements were greater in the control group than in individuals with PD. These results support the findings that the practice of upper extremity reaching tasks is beneficial in reducing movement time in persons with PD and has important implications for rehabilitation.

  16. Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme daily precipitation amounts in Southeastern Canada using a peaks-over-threshold approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiombiano, Alida N.; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; El-Jabi, Nassir

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a statistical inference of Southeastern Canada extreme daily precipitation amounts is proposed using a classical nonstationary peaks-over-threshold model. Indeed, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is fitted to excess time series derived from annual averages of independent precipitation amount events above a fixed threshold, the 99th percentile. Only the scale parameter of the fitted distribution is allowed to vary as a function of a covariate. This variability is modeled using B-spline function. Nonlinear correlation and cross-wavelet analysis allowed identifying two dominant climate indices as covariates in the study area, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific North American (PNA). The nonstationary frequency analysis showed that there is an east-west behavior of the AO index effects on extreme daily precipitation amounts in the study area. Indeed, the higher quantiles of these events are conditional to the AO positive phase in Atlantic Canada, while those in the more southeastern part of Canada, especially in Southern Quebec and Ontario, are negatively related to AO. The negative phase of PNA also gives the best significant correlation in these regions. Moreover, a regression analysis between AO (PNA) index and conditional quantiles provided slope values for the positive phase of the index on the one hand and the negative phase and on the other hand. This statistic allows computing a slope ratio which permits to sustain the nonlinear relation assumption between climate indices and precipitation and the development of the nonstationary GPD model for Southeastern Canada extremes precipitation modeling.

  17. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  18. Analysis of the Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Field Emission from Laptop Computers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brodić Darko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the problem of magnetic field emission produced by the laptop computers. Although, the magnetic field is spread over the entire frequency spectrum, the most dangerous part of it to the laptop users is the frequency range from 50 to 500 Hz, commonly called the extremely low frequency magnetic field. In this frequency region the magnetic field is characterized by high peak values. To examine the influence of laptop’s magnetic field emission in the office, a specific experiment is proposed. It includes the measurement of the magnetic field at six laptop’s positions, which are in close contact to its user. The results obtained from ten different laptop computers show the extremely high emission at some positions, which are dependent on the power dissipation or bad ergonomics. Eventually, the experiment extracts these dangerous positions of magnetic field emission and suggests possible solutions.

  19. Effects of management intervention on post-disturbance community composition: an experimental analysis using bayesian hierarchical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Giovanini

    Full Text Available As human demand for ecosystem products increases, management intervention may become more frequent after environmental disturbances. Evaluations of ecological responses to cumulative effects of management interventions and natural disturbances provide critical decision-support tools for managers who strive to balance environmental conservation and economic development. We conducted an experiment to evaluate the effects of salvage logging on avian community composition in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta forests affected by beetle outbreaks in Oregon, USA, 1996-1998. Treatments consisted of the removal of lodgepole pine snags only, and live trees were not harvested. We used a bayesian hierarchical model to quantify occupancy dynamics for 27 breeding species, while accounting for variation in the detection process. We examined how magnitude and precision of treatment effects varied when incorporating prior information from a separate intervention study that occurred in a similar ecological system. Regardless of which prior we evaluated, we found no evidence that the harvest treatment had a negative impact on species richness, with an estimated average of 0.2-2.2 more species in harvested stands than unharvested stands. Estimated average similarity between control and treatment stands ranged from 0.82-0.87 (1 indicating complete similarity between a pair of stands and suggested that treatment stands did not contain novel assemblies of species responding to the harvesting prescription. Estimated treatment effects were positive for twenty-four (90% of the species, although the credible intervals contained 0 in all cases. These results suggest that, unlike most post-fire salvage logging prescriptions, selective harvesting after beetle outbreaks may meet multiple management objectives, including the maintenance of avian community richness comparable to what is found in unharvested stands. Our results provide managers with prescription alternatives to

  20. Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

    2018-04-01

    A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

  1. Pathologic features of lower extremity arterial lesions in diabetes mellitus:an analysis of 162 patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Xiangjiang; Zhang Jiwei

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the angiographic manifestations of lower extremity atherosclerotic occlusion in patients with diabetes mellitus. Methods: The angiographic findings of lower extremity in 162 patients with diabetes mellitus were retrospectively analyzed. (1) The arteries of lower extremity were divided into the following four segments: iliac, femoral, popliteal and crural artery. The involvements of these arteries were documented. (2) Based on the lesion's number, location, nature (stricture or occlusion) and length ( 5 cm), the diabetic arterial diseases were categorized. Results: (1) Of 162 diabetic lower limbs, multiple segmental lesions were seen in 131, superficial femoral arterial lesions in 130, and crural arterial lesions in 139, of which 130 arterial lesions had at least two below-the-knee arteries being involved. (2) Based on segmental angiographic classification, a total of 660 vascular lesions were detected, including stricture lesions (33.8%) and occlusive lesions (66.2%). Of the 437 occlusions, 70.5% were located in below-the-knee arteries, and most of which were longer than 10 cm and located in anterior and posterior tibial arteries, while only a few peroneal arteries were involved (P < 0.0001). One hundred and fifty-two lesions were detected in superficial femoral arteries, of which 49 (31.2%) were located at the origin of the superficial femoral artery and 56 (35.7) were in the adductor canal hiatus. Conclusion: The main feature of peripheral arterial disease of lower extremity caused by diabetes mellitus is multi-level atherosclerotic occlusion, the superficial femoral and the crural arteries are most likely to be involved. The lesions of superficial femoral artery are often located at the arterial origin and in the adductor canal hiatus, while the deep femoral artery and the femoral artery are less involved. Long occlusive lesions are more prevalent in crural arteries, especially in anterior and posterior tibial arteries. (J Intervent

  2. Recovery of lotic macroinvertebrate communities from disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, J. Bruce

    1990-09-01

    Ecosystem disturbances produce changes in macrobenthic community structure (abundances, biomass, and production) that persist for a few weeks to many decades. Examples of disturbances with extremely long-term effects on benthic communities include contamination by persistent toxic agents, physical changes in habitats, and altered energy inputs. Stream size, retention, and local geomorphology may ameliorate the influence of disturbances on invertebrates. Disturbances can alter food webs and may select for favorable genotypes (e.g., insecticidal resistance). Introductions of pesticides into lotic ecosystems, which do not result in major physical changes within habitats, illustrate several factors that influence invertebrate recovery time from disturbance. These include: (1) magnitude of original contamination, toxicity, and extent of continued use; (2) spatial scale of the disturbance; (3) persistence of the pesticide; (4) timing of the contamination in relation to the life history stages of the organisms; (5) vagility of populations influenced by pesticides; and (6) position within the drainage network. The ability of macroinvertebrates to recolonize denuded stream habitats may vary greatly depending on regional life histories, dispersal abilities, and position within the stream network (e.g., headwaters vs larger rivers). Although downstream drift is the most frequently cited mechanism of invertebrate recolonization following disturbance in middle- and larger-order streams, evidence is presented that shows aerial recolonization to be potentially important in headwater streams. There is an apparent stochastic element operating for aerial recolonization, depending on the timing of disturbance and flight periods of various taxa. Available evidence indicates that recolonization of invertebrate taxa without an aerial adult stage requires longer periods of time than for those that possess winged, terrestrial adult stages (i.e., most insects). Innovative, manipulative

  3. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Disturbed conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HELTON, JON CRAIG; BEAN, J.E.; ECONOMY, K.; GARNER, J.W.; MACKINNON, ROBERT J.; MILLER, JOEL D.; SCHREIBER, J.D.; VAUGHN, PALMER

    2000-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository under disturbed conditions resulting from drilling intrusions. Techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformations are used to investigate brine inflow, gas generation repository pressure, brine saturation and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure and brine flow from the repository to the Culebra Dolomite are potentially the most important in PA for the WIPP. Subsequent to a drilling intrusion repository pressure was dominated by borehole permeability and generally below the level (i.e., 8 MPa) that could potentially produce spallings and direct brine releases. Brine flow from the repository to the Culebra Dolomite tended to be small or nonexistent with its occurrence and size also dominated by borehole permeability

  4. Analysis of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy spectra: The case for extreme value statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, Anna P.M.; Chave, Alan D.

    2007-01-01

    In most instances, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) spectra are obtained through analog accumulation of multiple shots in the spectrometer CCD. The average acquired in the CCD at a given wavelength is assumed to be a good representation of the population mean, which in turn is implicitly regarded to be the best estimator for the central value of the distribution of the spectrum at the same wavelength. Multiple analog accumulated spectra are taken and then in turn averaged wavelength-by-wavelength to represent the final spectrum. In this paper, the statistics of single-shot and analog accumulated LIBS spectra of both solids and liquids were examined to evaluate whether the spectrum averaging approach is statistically defensible. At a given wavelength, LIBS spectra are typically drawn from a Frechet extreme value distribution, and hence the mean of an ensemble of LIBS spectra is not necessarily an optimal summary statistic. Under circumstances that are broadly general, the sample mean for LIBS data is statistically inconsistent and the central limit theorem does not apply. This result appears to be due to very high shot-to-shot plasma variability in which a very small number of spectra are high in intensity while the majority are very weak, yielding the extreme value form of the distribution. The extreme value behavior persists when individual shots are analog accumulated. An optimal estimator in a well-defined sense for the spectral average at a given wavelength follows from the maximum likelihood method for the extreme value distribution. Example spectra taken with both an Echelle and a Czerny-Turner spectrometer are processed with this scheme to create smooth, high signal-to-noise summary spectra. Plasma imaging was used in an attempt to visually understand the observed variability and to validate the use of extreme value statistics. The data processing approach presented in this paper is statistically reliable and should be used for accurate

  5. A Comparative Analysis of Two Software Development Methodologies: Rational Unified Process and Extreme Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Rafael Borth

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Software development methodologies were created to meet the great market demand for innovation, productivity, quality and performance. With the use of a methodology, it is possible to reduce the cost, the risk, the development time, and even increase the quality of the final product. This article compares two of these development methodologies: the Rational Unified Process and the Extreme Programming. The comparison shows the main differences and similarities between the two approaches, and highlights and comments some of their predominant features.

  6. Extreme wave impacts on monopiles: Re-analysis of experimental data by a coupled CFD solver

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghadirian, Amin; Bredmose, Henrik; Schløer, Signe

    2017-01-01

    Two different numerical models, OceanWave3D and a coupled solver, OceanWave3D-OpenFOAM (Waves2Foam), are used to reproduce extreme events in one sea state. The events are chosen as, the measured event that generates the largest peak moment (exceedance probability of 0.05%) and one event with a sl...... agreement with the measurements. The secondary load cycles are observed in the measured force and bending moment time series and the reproduced times series using OpenFOAM....

  7. Final Report: Spectral Analysis of L-shell Data in the Extreme Ultraviolet from Tokamak Plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepson, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Jernigan, J. Garrett [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Beiersdorfer, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-02-05

    We performed detailed analyses of extreme ultraviolet spectra taken by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the National Spherical Torus Experiment at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and on the Alcator CKmod tokamak at the M.I.T. Plasma Science and Fusion Center. We focused on the emission of iron, carbon, and other elements in several spectral band pass regions covered by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We documented emission lines of carbon not found in currently used solar databases and demonstrated that this emission was due to charge exchange.

  8. Exploring the Impacts of Anthropogenic Disturbance on Seawater and Sediment Microbial Communities in Korean Coastal Waters Using Metagenomics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam-Il Won

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The coastal ecosystems are considered as one of the most dynamic and vulnerable environments under various anthropogenic developments and the effects of climate change. Variations in the composition and diversity of microbial communities may be a good indicator for determining whether the marine ecosystems are affected by complex forcing stressors. DNA sequence-based metagenomics has recently emerged as a promising tool for analyzing the structure and diversity of microbial communities based on environmental DNA (eDNA. However, few studies have so far been performed using this approach to assess the impacts of human activities on the microbial communities in marine systems. In this study, using metagenomic DNA sequencing (16S ribosomal RNA gene, we analyzed and compared seawater and sediment communities between sand mining and control (natural sites in southern coastal waters of Korea to assess whether anthropogenic activities have significantly affected the microbial communities. The sand mining sites harbored considerably lower levels of microbial diversities in the surface seawater community during spring compared with control sites. Moreover, the sand mining areas had distinct microbial taxonomic group compositions, particularly during spring season. The microbial groups detected solely in the sediment load/dredging areas (e.g., Marinobacter, Alcanivorax, Novosphingobium are known to be involved in degradation of toxic chemicals such as hydrocarbon, oil, and aromatic compounds, and they also contain potential pathogens. This study highlights the versatility of metagenomics in monitoring and diagnosing the impacts of human disturbance on the environmental health of marine ecosystems from eDNA.

  9. Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015 Using Self-Organizing Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeoluwa Akande

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The explosion of data in the information age has provided an opportunity to explore the possibility of characterizing the climate patterns using data mining techniques. Nigeria has a unique tropical climate with two precipitation regimes: low precipitation in the north leading to aridity and desertification and high precipitation in parts of the southwest and southeast leading to large scale flooding. In this research, four indices have been used to characterize the intensity, frequency, and amount of rainfall over Nigeria. A type of Artificial Neural Network called the self-organizing map has been used to reduce the multiplicity of dimensions and produce four unique zones characterizing extreme precipitation conditions in Nigeria. This approach allowed for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in extreme precipitation in the last three decades. Precipitation properties in each cluster are discussed. The cluster closest to the Atlantic has high values of precipitation intensity, frequency, and duration, whereas the cluster closest to the Sahara Desert has low values. A significant increasing trend has been observed in the frequency of rainy days at the center of the northern region of Nigeria.

  10. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  11. Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boughton

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

  12. [Assessment of betahistine dihydrochloride effectiveness in the treatment of disturbance of balance system, based on analysis of doctors and patients questionnaires results].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Kantor, Ireneusz; Usowski, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    In balance system assessment there is no single set of tests applicable for all patients. A comprehensive medical history plays a main role in balance assessment. Patients often describe the same disorders in different ways. The aim of our work was to analyze effectiveness of betahistine hydrochloride (Betaserc) treatment on vertigo, nausea, vomiting, tinnitus and progressive hearing loss basing on the medical assessment (interview) performed by doctors and patient's personal questionnaires as well as to collect and accumulate data about balance system disorders. We prepared questionnaires for both doctors and patients. The doctor's questionnaire was divided into three sections. In the first section we included questions about direct cause of visit at the doctor's office. Questions were covering problems regarding balance system disorders (difficulty to keep erect position), vertigo, tinnitus, hearing impairment and other problems. The second section of the questionnaire included assessment of treatment effectiveness through the first 14 days and on the 28th day (a control visit). A third section of the questionnaire was focused on estimation of intensity of balance system disturbances. Patient's questionnaire included everyday self observations of intensity of disturbances within the 14 days observation period. We analyzed data of 980 patients, of the age between 16 and 96 years (mean age--54.1). There were 57.8% females and 42.2% males. From the group of 980 patients we separated a group of patients under 40 and over 60 years of age for additional analysis. Having analyzed doctors questionnaires we noted that the most frequent cause of patients' visits were: vertigo--in 770 people (78.57%), tinnitus--in 708 people (72.24%), disturbance of balance system--in 612 people (62.45%), hearing loss--in 607 people (61.94%) and other problems--in 72 people (7.35%). Patients over 60 years of age described vertigo as rolling and falling (38.92%). Patients under 40 years of

  13. Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

  14. The influence of job stress, social support and health status on intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance: an 8-year longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, John A; Batterham, Philip J; Glozier, Nick; Christensen, Helen

    2014-08-01

    To determine the role of health status and social support in the relationship between job stress and sleep disturbance, for both intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance. A total of 1946 mid-life adults completed three questionnaires spanning an 8-year time frame. Sleep disturbance was assessed at each time point, and participants were classified as experiencing intermittent, chronic or no sleep disturbance across this 8-year period. Independent variables included a range of job stress measures, social support, physical and mental health, and demographic characteristics. After controlling for physical and mental health, perceived lack of job marketability increased risk of intermittent sleep disturbance (odds ratio (OR)=1.33, p=0.012). No other job stress measures were associated with either intermittent or chronic sleep disturbance after adjusting for years of education, social support, and employment status. Poorer mental and physical health status, although significantly increasing odds for intermittent sleep disturbance, represented a significantly greater increase in the odds for chronic sleep disturbance over and above intermittent disturbance (OR=0.96, pjob stress had an independent effect on chronic or intermittent sleep disturbance independent of health, social support, and education. Risk profiles for intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance did not differ with regard to job stress; however, various demographic and social support factors were distinguishing factors. Health status, both physical and mental, also showed a significantly greater impact on chronic sleep disturbance than intermittent sleep disturbance. Karasek's model of job strain had little value in predicting sleep disturbance outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

    2017-07-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

  16. An Extreme Meteorological Events Analysis For Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Siting Project at Bangka Island, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Septiadi, Deni; S, Yarianto Sugeng B.; Sriyana; Anzhar, Kurnia; Suntoko, Hadi

    2018-03-01

    The potential sources of meteorological phenomena in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) area of interest are identified and the extreme values of the possible resulting hazards associated which such phenomena are evaluated to derive the appropriate design bases for the NPP. The appropriate design bases shall be determined according to the Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency (Bapeten) applicable regulations, which presently do not indicate quantitative criteria for purposes of determining the design bases for meteorological hazards. These meteorological investigations are also carried out to evaluate the regional and site specific meteorological parameters which affect the transport and dispersion of radioactive effluents on the environment of the region around the NPP site. The meteorological hazards are to be monitored and assessed periodically over the lifetime of the plant to ensure that consistency with the design assumptions is maintained throughout the full lifetime of the facility.

  17. Extreme-Scale Stochastic Particle Tracing for Uncertain Unsteady Flow Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Hanqi; He, Wenbin; Seo, Sangmin; Shen, Han-Wei; Peterka, Tom

    2016-11-13

    We present an efficient and scalable solution to estimate uncertain transport behaviors using stochastic flow maps (SFM,) for visualizing and analyzing uncertain unsteady flows. SFM computation is extremely expensive because it requires many Monte Carlo runs to trace densely seeded particles in the flow. We alleviate the computational cost by decoupling the time dependencies in SFMs so that we can process adjacent time steps independently and then compose them together for longer time periods. Adaptive refinement is also used to reduce the number of runs for each location. We then parallelize over tasks—packets of particles in our design—to achieve high efficiency in MPI/thread hybrid programming. Such a task model also enables CPU/GPU coprocessing. We show the scalability on two supercomputers, Mira (up to 1M Blue Gene/Q cores) and Titan (up to 128K Opteron cores and 8K GPUs), that can trace billions of particles in seconds.

  18. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  19. An analysis of the radiation field characteristics for extremity dose assessment during maintenance periods at nuclear power plants in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H. G.; Kong, T. Y.

    2012-01-01

    Workers who maintain the water chambers of steam generators during maintenance periods in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have a higher likelihood of high radiation exposure, even if they are exposed for a short period of time. In particular, it is expected that the hands of workers would receive the highest radiation exposure as a consequence of hand contact with radioactive materials. In this study, a characteristic analysis of inhomogeneous radiation fields for contact operations was conducted using thermoluminescent dosemeters for the whole body and extremities during maintenance periods at Korean NPPs. It was observed that inhomogeneous radiation fields for contact operations at NPPs were dominated by high-energy photons. (authors)

  20. Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis for extreme events using Archimedean copula. Case study: Lower Tunjuelo River basin (Colombia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Wilmar

    2017-04-01

    By analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events we can prevent or reduce the threat and risk. Many water resources projects require joint probability distributions of random variables such as precipitation intensity and duration, which can not be independent with each other. The problem of defining a probability model for observations of several dependent variables is greatly simplified by the joint distribution in terms of their marginal by taking copulas. This document presents a general framework set frequency analysis bivariate and multivariate using Archimedean copulas for extreme events of hydroclimatological nature such as severe storms. This analysis was conducted in the lower Tunjuelo River basin in Colombia for precipitation events. The results obtained show that for a joint study of the intensity-duration-frequency, IDF curves can be obtained through copulas and thus establish more accurate and reliable information from design storms and associated risks. It shows how the use of copulas greatly simplifies the study of multivariate distributions that introduce the concept of joint return period used to represent the needs of hydrological designs properly in frequency analysis.

  1. Analysis of strong ionospheric scintillation events measured by means of GPS signals at low latitudes during disturbed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forte, B.

    2012-08-01

    Drifting structures characterized by inhomogeneities in the spatial electron density distribution at ionospheric heights cause the scintillation of radio waves propagating through. The fractional electron density fluctuations and the corresponding scintillation levels may reach extreme values at low latitudes during high solar activity. Different levels of scintillation were observed on experimental data collected in the Asian sector at low latitudes by means of a GPS dual frequency receiver under moderate solar activity (2005). The GPS receiver used in these campaigns was particularly modified in firmware in order to record power estimates on the C/A code as well as on the carriers L1 and L2. Strong scintillation activity was recorded in the post-sunset period (saturatingS4 and SI as high as 20 dB). Spectral modifications and broadening was observed during high levels of scintillation possibly indicating refractive scattering taking place instead of diffractive scattering. A possible interpretation of those events was attempted on the basis of the refractive scattering theory developed by Uscinski (1968) and Booker and MajidiAhi (1981).

  2. Colorado River basin sensitivity to disturbance impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, K. E.; Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Jonko, A. K.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Bohn, T. J.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Colorado River basin is an important river for the food-energy-water nexus in the United States and is projected to change under future scenarios of increased CO2emissions and warming. Streamflow estimates to consider climate impacts occurring as a result of this warming are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain inputs—to fully understand impacts on streamflow sensitivity analysis can help determine how models respond under changing disturbances such as climate and vegetation. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in VIC. Additionally, we examine sensitivities of basin-wide model simulations using an approach that incorporates changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation to consider impact responses for snow-dominated headwater catchments, low elevation arid basins, and for the upper and lower river basins. We find that for the Colorado River basin, snow-dominated regions are more sensitive to uncertainties. New parameter sensitivities identified include runoff/evapotranspiration sensitivity to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI). Basin-wide streamflow sensitivities to precipitation, temperature and vegetation are variable seasonally and also between sub-basins; with the largest sensitivities for smaller, snow-driven headwater systems where forests are dense. For a major headwater basin, a 1ºC of warming equaled a 30% loss of forest cover, while a 10% precipitation loss equaled a 90% forest cover decline. Scenarios utilizing multiple disturbances led to unexpected results where changes could either magnify or diminish extremes, such as low and peak flows and streamflow timing

  3. Acid-base disturbances in nephrotic syndrome: analysis using the CO2/HCO3 method (traditional Boston model) and the physicochemical method (Stewart model).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasagi, Tomomichi; Imai, Hirokazu; Miura, Naoto; Suzuki, Keisuke; Yoshino, Masabumi; Nobata, Hironobu; Nagai, Takuhito; Banno, Shogo

    2017-10-01

    The Stewart model for analyzing acid-base disturbances emphasizes serum albumin levels, which are ignored in the traditional Boston model. We compared data derived using the Stewart model to those using the Boston model in patients with nephrotic syndrome. Twenty-nine patients with nephrotic syndrome and six patients without urinary protein or acid-base disturbances provided blood and urine samples for analysis that included routine biochemical and arterial blood gas tests, plasma renin activity, and aldosterone. The total concentration of non-volatile weak acids (A TOT ), apparent strong ion difference (SIDa), effective strong ion difference (SIDe), and strong ion gap (SIG) were calculated according to the formulas of Agrafiotis in the Stewart model. According to the Boston model, 25 of 29 patients (90%) had alkalemia. Eighteen patients had respiratory alkalosis, 11 had metabolic alkalosis, and 4 had both conditions. Only three patients had hyperreninemic hyperaldosteronism. The Stewart model demonstrated respiratory alkalosis based on decreased PaCO 2 , metabolic alkalosis based on decreased A TOT , and metabolic acidosis based on decreased SIDa. We could diagnose metabolic alkalosis or acidosis with a normal anion gap after comparing delta A TOT [(14.09 - measured A TOT ) or (11.77 - 2.64 × Alb (g/dL))] and delta SIDa [(42.7 - measured SIDa) or (42.7 - (Na + K - Cl)]). We could also identify metabolic acidosis with an increased anion gap using SIG > 7.0 (SIG = 0.9463 × corrected anion gap-8.1956). Patients with nephrotic syndrome had primary respiratory alkalosis, decreased A TOT due to hypoalbuminemia (power to metabolic alkalosis), and decreased levels of SIDa (power to metabolic acidosis). We could detect metabolic acidosis with an increased anion gap by calculating SIG. The Stewart model in combination with the Boston model facilitates the analysis of complex acid-base disturbances in nephrotic syndrome.

  4. Application of disturbance analysis methodology to safety related transients in the electrical systems of a nuclear power plant. Report UCLA-ENG-8056

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guarro, S.; Okrent, D.

    1981-08-01

    The present study tries to address the question of whether or not the computerized on-line procedures known under the name of DAS (Disturbance Analysis System) can be usefully and successfully applied to provide timely diagnostics and operational suggestions during the occurrence of a major electrical transient in the auxiliary systems of a nuclear power plant. The perspective of the study is from the plant-safety point of view. A short definition of DAS methodology features and capabilities is presented. A discussion of some of the problems of a general nature that are encountered in DAS safety-oriented applications are also included. The event insufficient power on both emergency buses, with reference to a particular plant dsign (San Onofre 1), is presented. Some transients that have recently occurred in the power supply systems of operating plants are examined. Whether or not a DAS could have successfully dealt with such occurrences is considered

  5. Application of disturbance analysis methodology to safety related transients in the electrical systems of a nuclear power plant. Report UCLA-ENG-8056

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guarro, S.; Okrent, D.

    1981-08-01

    The present study tries to address the question of whether or not the computerized on-line procedures known under the name of DAS (Disturbance Analysis System) can be usefully and successfully applied to provide timely diagnostics and operational suggestions during the occurrence of a major electrical transient in the auxiliary systems of a nuclear power plant. The perspective of the study is from the plant-safety point of view. A short definition of DAS methodology features and capabilities is presented. A discussion of some of the problems of a general nature that are encountered in DAS safety-oriented applications are also included. The event insufficient power on both emergency buses, with reference to a particular plant dsign (San Onofre 1), is presented. Some transients that have recently occurred in the power supply systems of operating plants are examined. Whether or not a DAS could have successfully dealt with such occurrences is considered.

  6. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  7. Extreme multistability analysis of memristor-based chaotic system and its application in image decryption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available An active charge-controlled memristive Chua’s circuit is implemented, and its basic properties are analyzed. Firstly, with the system trajectory starting from an equilibrium point, the dynamic behavior of multiple coexisting attractors depending on the memristor initial value and the system parameter is studied, which shows the coexisting behaviors of point, period, chaos, and quasic-period. Secondly, with the system motion starting from a non-equilibrium point, the dynamics of extreme multistability in a wide initial value domain are easily conformed by new analytical methods. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that some strange chaotic attractors like multi-wing type and multi-scroll type are observed when the observed signals are extended from voltage and current to power and energy, respectively. Specially, when different initial conditions are taken, the coexisting strange chaotic attractors between the power and energy signals are exhibited. Finally, the chaotic sequences of the new system are used for encrypting color image to protect image information security. The encryption performance is analyzed by statistic histogram, correlation, key spaces and key sensitivity. Simulation results show that the new memristive chaotic system has high security in color image encryption.

  8. [Clinical analysis of patients with lower extremity deep venous thrombosis complicated with inferior vena cava thrombus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Dian-ning; Wu, Xue-jun; Zhang, Shi-yi; Zhong, Zhen-yue; Jin, Xing

    2013-06-04

    To explore the clinical profiles of patients with lower extremity deep venous thrombosis (DVT) complicated with inferior vena cava (IVC) thrombus and summarize their clinical diagnostic and therapeutic experiences. The clinical characteristics, diagnosis and treatment of 20 hospitalized patients with DVT complicated with inferior vena cava thrombus were analyzed retrospectively. All of them were of proximal DVT. There were phlegmasia cerulea dolens (n = 3), pulmonary embolism (n = 3) and completely occlusion of IVC (n = 5). Clinical manifestations were severe. Retrievable inferior vena cava filter (IVCF) was implanted for 17 cases. Catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) through ipsilateral popliteal vein was applied for 7 cases and systemic thrombolysis therapy for 8 cases. The effective rate of thrombolysis for fresh IVC thrombus was 100%. Among 5 cases with Cockett Syndrome, 3 cases underwent balloon dilatation angioplasty and endovascular stenting of iliac vein. And 17 IVCFs were retrieved successfully within 3 weeks. IVC thrombus disappeared completely in 15 cases. Systemic or local thrombolysis with protective IVCF is a safe and effective therapy for nonocclusive IVC thrombus in DVT. And CDT is recommended for symptomatic occlusive IVC thrombus.

  9. Extreme multistability analysis of memristor-based chaotic system and its application in image decryption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chuang; Min, Fuhong; Jin, Qiusen; Ma, Hanyuan

    2017-12-01

    An active charge-controlled memristive Chua's circuit is implemented, and its basic properties are analyzed. Firstly, with the system trajectory starting from an equilibrium point, the dynamic behavior of multiple coexisting attractors depending on the memristor initial value and the system parameter is studied, which shows the coexisting behaviors of point, period, chaos, and quasic-period. Secondly, with the system motion starting from a non-equilibrium point, the dynamics of extreme multistability in a wide initial value domain are easily conformed by new analytical methods. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that some strange chaotic attractors like multi-wing type and multi-scroll type are observed when the observed signals are extended from voltage and current to power and energy, respectively. Specially, when different initial conditions are taken, the coexisting strange chaotic attractors between the power and energy signals are exhibited. Finally, the chaotic sequences of the new system are used for encrypting color image to protect image information security. The encryption performance is analyzed by statistic histogram, correlation, key spaces and key sensitivity. Simulation results show that the new memristive chaotic system has high security in color image encryption.

  10. On the characterization of vegetation recovery after fire disturbance using Fisher-Shannon analysis and SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

    2015-04-01

    Time series can fruitfully support fire monitoring and management from statistical analysis of fire occurrence (Tuia et al. 2008) to danger estimation (lasaponara 2005), damage evaluation (Lanorte et al 2014) and post fire recovery (Lanorte et al. 2014). In this paper, the time dynamics of SPOT-VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series are analyzed by using the statistical approach of the Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane to assess and monitor vegetation recovery after fire disturbance. Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis allows us to gain insight into the complex structure of a time series to quantify its degree of organization and order. The analysis was carried out using 10-day Maximum Value Composites of NDVI (MVC-NDVI) with a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The investigation was performed on two test sites located in Galizia (North Spain) and Peloponnese (South Greece), selected for the vast fires which occurred during the summer of 2006 and 2007 and for their different vegetation covers made up mainly of low shrubland in Galizia test site and evergreen forest in Peloponnese. Time series of MVC-NDVI have been analyzed before and after the occurrence of the fire events. Results obtained for both the investigated areas clearly pointed out that the dynamics of the pixel time series before the occurrence of the fire is characterized by a larger degree of disorder and uncertainty; while the pixel time series after the occurrence of the fire are featured by a higher degree of organization and order. In particular, regarding the Peloponneso fire, such discrimination is more evident than in the Galizia fire. This suggests a clear possibility to discriminate the different post-fire behaviors and dynamics exhibited by the different vegetation covers. Reference Lanorte A, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to

  11. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  12. Electric power quality analysis methods. Application to voltage dips and harmonic disturbances; Methodes d'analyse de la qualite de l'energie electrique. Application aux creux de tension et a la pollution harmonique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanya, Ignatova

    2006-10-15

    The power quality concerns all the actors in the energy domains, that they are network administrators, suppliers, producers, or consumers of electricity. The research work presented in this PhD thesis is situated in the field of the power quality monitoring. Its objective is to introduce new techniques for analysis of power quality problems. There are different methods designed for the analysis of the power quality disturbances. This method reaches very good performances in the voltage dips analysis, as it allows segmenting, classifying and characterising these power quality disturbances. The periodic systems method allows the theoretical study of the generation and the propagation of harmonic disturbances in the network. Finally, the statistical matrix method has the objective to represent statistically electrical signals without loss of important information. (author)

  13. Trends and Extremes Analysis of Daily Weather Data from a Site in the Capitanata Plain (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Vitale

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of the climate change for agriculture is an ambitious and unresolved topic due to the complexity of the natural phenomena. The high variability of the Mediterranean basin does not allow us to generalize with enough certainty the results obtained from other researches and other locations. Therefore, a site specific analysis in Capitanata plain was conducted. The aim is to provide a detailed picture of recent change in climate regime in one of the most important agricultural area of South Italy. Climate analysis was carried out and several indices of extreme events were studied on the basis of temperature and precipitation observations registered at experimental station ‘Podere 124’ (CRA-SCA. The period under study is 1979-2008. Increasing trends were identified for the summer season with an intensification of the number of heat waves.

  14. Analysis of students’ nervous system’s typological properties, in aspect of response to extreme situation, with the help of multi-dimensional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.L. Kozina

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: determination of objective and subjective characteristics of students’ with different properties of nervous system fear of heights. Material: In the research 10 students of 18-19 years old age, who did not practice sports, participated. The students fulfilled one exercises: passing suspended ferriage in hiking. This exercise gives subjective perception of height and creates artificial conditions for appearing of fear. He exercise was fulfilled under all required safety measures and supervised by experienced instructor. Cluster and discriminant analysis were used. Results: we have shown that is possible to divide people into groups by indicators of functional changes in extreme situation in combination with indicators of psycho-physiological potentials and properties of nervous system. We have found that the most significant indicators for distribution of students into groups by individual typological properties are speed and accuracy of passing of psycho-physiological tests with different modes of signals’ supply as well as functional changes before exercise of extreme character. Conclusions: It was determined that students with strong type of nervous system had confidently less heart beats rate before fulfillment of extreme exercise than the students with weak type of nervous system. Subjective feeling of fear before fulfillment of extreme exercise was also confidently less in representatives of strong type of nervous system.

  15. Postradiation disturbances of neuroendocrinal interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dedov, V.I.

    1980-01-01

    Analysis of data on the disturbances induced by ionizing irradiation in endocrine organs is given on the basis of experimental material. Mechanism and dynamics of the radiation pathology of such organs of endocrine system as hypothalamus, hypophysis, adrenal glands, thyroid, gonads are considered. Necessity of the determination of criteria of injury significance and study of delayed effects of ionizing radiation in perspective investigation of the problems of endocrine radiation pathology is pointed out

  16. Comparative Genomic Analysis of Rapid Evolution of an Extreme-Drug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Clone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Sean Yang-Yi; Chua, Song Lin; Liu, Yang; Høiby, Niels; Andersen, Leif Percival; Givskov, Michael; Song, Zhijun; Yang, Liang

    2013-01-01

    The emergence of extreme-drug-resistant (EDR) bacterial strains in hospital and nonhospital clinical settings is a big and growing public health threat. Understanding the antibiotic resistance mechanisms at the genomic levels can facilitate the development of next-generation agents. Here, comparative genomics has been employed to analyze the rapid evolution of an EDR Acinetobacter baumannii clone from the intensive care unit (ICU) of Rigshospitalet at Copenhagen. Two resistant A. baumannii strains, 48055 and 53264, were sequentially isolated from two individuals who had been admitted to ICU within a 1-month interval. Multilocus sequence typing indicates that these two isolates belonged to ST208. The A. baumannii 53264 strain gained colistin resistance compared with the 48055 strain and became an EDR strain. Genome sequencing indicates that A. baumannii 53264 and 48055 have almost identical genomes—61 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found between them. The A. baumannii 53264 strain was assembled into 130 contigs, with a total length of 3,976,592 bp with 38.93% GC content. The A. baumannii 48055 strain was assembled into 135 contigs, with a total length of 4,049,562 bp with 39.00% GC content. Genome comparisons showed that this A. baumannii clone is classified as an International clone II strain and has 94% synteny with the A. baumannii ACICU strain. The ResFinder server identified a total of 14 antibiotic resistance genes in the A. baumannii clone. Proteomic analyses revealed that a putative porin protein was down-regulated when A. baumannii 53264 was exposed to antimicrobials, which may reduce the entry of antibiotics into the bacterial cell. PMID:23538992

  17. A Pervasive Parallel Processing Framework for Data Visualization and Analysis at Extreme Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreland, Kenneth [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Geveci, Berk [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, NY (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The evolution of the computing world from teraflop to petaflop has been relatively effortless, with several of the existing programming models scaling effectively to the petascale. The migration to exascale, however, poses considerable challenges. All industry trends infer that the exascale machine will be built using processors containing hundreds to thousands of cores per chip. It can be inferred that efficient concurrency on exascale machines requires a massive amount of concurrent threads, each performing many operations on a localized piece of data. Currently, visualization libraries and applications are based off what is known as the visualization pipeline. In the pipeline model, algorithms are encapsulated as filters with inputs and outputs. These filters are connected by setting the output of one component to the input of another. Parallelism in the visualization pipeline is achieved by replicating the pipeline for each processing thread. This works well for today’s distributed memory parallel computers but cannot be sustained when operating on processors with thousands of cores. Our project investigates a new visualization framework designed to exhibit the pervasive parallelism necessary for extreme scale machines. Our framework achieves this by defining algorithms in terms of worklets, which are localized stateless operations. Worklets are atomic operations that execute when invoked unlike filters, which execute when a pipeline request occurs. The worklet design allows execution on a massive amount of lightweight threads with minimal overhead. Only with such fine-grained parallelism can we hope to fill the billions of threads we expect will be necessary for efficient computation on an exascale machine.

  18. Prospective Analysis of Pulmonary Hypertension in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, Ramachandra; Salas, Ariel A.; Foster, Chris; Carlo, Waldemar A.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants and contributes to morbidity and mortality. The objective was to determine the prevalence of pulmonary hypertension among ELBW infants by screening echocardiography and evaluate subsequent outcomes. METHODS: All ELBW infants admitted to a regional perinatal center were evaluated for pulmonary hypertension with echocardiography at 4 weeks of age and subsequently if clinical signs suggestive of right-sided heart failure or severe lung disease were evident. Management was at discretion of the clinician, and infants were evaluated until discharge from the hospital or pre-discharge death occurred. RESULTS: One hundred forty-five ELBW infants (birth weight: 755 ± 144 g; median gestational age: 26 weeks [interquartile range: 24–27]) were screened from December 2008 to February 2011. Overall, 26 (17.9%) were diagnosed with pulmonary hypertension at any time during hospitalization (birth weight: 665 ± 140 g; median gestational age: 26 weeks [interquartile range: 24–27]): 9 (6.2%) by initial screening (early pulmonary hypertension) and 17 (11.7%) who were identified later (late pulmonary hypertension). Infants with pulmonary hypertension were more likely to receive oxygen treatment on day 28 compared with those without pulmonary hypertension (96% vs 75%, P Pulmonary hypertension is relatively common, affecting at least 1 in 6 ELBW infants, and persists to discharge in most survivors. Routine screening of ELBW infants with echocardiography at 4 weeks of age identifies only one-third of the infants diagnosed with pulmonary hypertension. Further research is required to determine optimal detection and intervention strategies. PMID:22311993

  19. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  20. Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID) are caused by solar flare enhanced X-rays in the 1 to 10 angstrom range. Solar flares can produce large increases of ionization...

  1. Depression Disturbs Germany

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The suicide of Robert Enke,the goalkeeper of the Germany national football team who had battled depression for years,stunned the country and cast depression into the national spotlight as a disturbing disease.

  2. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were

  3. Improved Survival With Radiation Therapy in High-Grade Soft Tissue Sarcomas of the Extremities: A SEER Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshy, Matthew; Rich, Shayna E.; Mohiuddin, Majid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The benefit of radiation therapy in extremity soft tissue sarcomas remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of radiation therapy on overall survival among patients with primary soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity who underwent limb-sparing surgery. Methods and Materials: A retrospective study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database that included data from January 1, 1988, to December 31, 2005. A total of 6,960 patients constituted the study population. Overall survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meir method and for patients with low- and high-grade tumors. Hazard ratios were calculated based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the cohort, 47% received radiation therapy. There was no significant difference in overall survival among patients with low-grade tumors by radiation therapy. In high-grade tumors, the 3-year overall survival was 73% in patients who received radiation therapy vs. 63% for those who did not receive radiation therapy (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, patients with high-grade tumors who received radiation therapy had an improved overall survival (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). In patients receiving radiation therapy, 13.5% received it in a neoadjuvant setting. The incidence of patients receiving neoadjuvant radiation did not change significantly between 1988 and 2005. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the largest population-based study reported in patients undergoing limb-sparing surgery for soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities. It reports that radiation was associated with improved survival in patients with high-grade tumors.

  4. OBSERVER RATING VERSUS THREE-DIMENSIONAL MOTION ANALYSIS OF LOWER EXTREMITY KINEMATICS DURING FUNCTIONAL SCREENING TESTS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maclachlan, Liam; White, Steven G; Reid, Duncan

    2015-08-01

    Functional assessments are conducted in both clinical and athletic settings in an attempt to identify those individuals who exhibit movement patterns that may increase their risk of non-contact injury. In place of highly sophisticated three-dimensional motion analysis, functional testing can be completed through observation. To evaluate the validity of movement observation assessments by summarizing the results of articles comparing human observation in real-time or video play-back and three-dimensional motion analysis of lower extremity kinematics during functional screening tests. Systematic review. A computerized systematic search was conducted through Medline, SPORTSdiscus, Scopus, Cinhal, and Cochrane health databases between February and April of 2014. Validity studies comparing human observation (real-time or video play-back) to three-dimensional motion analysis of functional tasks were selected. Only studies comprising uninjured, healthy subjects conducting lower extremity functional assessments were appropriate for review. Eligible observers were certified health practitioners or qualified members of sports and athletic training teams that conduct athlete screening. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) was used to appraise the literature. Results are presented in terms of functional tasks. Six studies met the inclusion criteria. Across these studies, two-legged squats, single-leg squats, drop-jumps, and running and cutting manoeuvres were the functional tasks analysed. When compared to three-dimensional motion analysis, observer ratings of lower extremity kinematics, such as knee position in relation to the foot, demonstrated mixed results. Single-leg squats achieved target sensitivity values (≥ 80%) but not specificity values (≥ 50%>%). Drop-jump task agreement ranged from poor ( 80%). Two-legged squats achieved 88% sensitivity and 85% specificity. Mean underestimations as large as 198 (peak knee flexion) were found in

  5. Safety analysis of spent fuel transport and storage casks under extreme impact conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolff, D.; Wieser, G.; Ballheimer, V.; Voelzke, H.; Droste, B.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Worldwide the security of transport and storage of spent fuel with respect to terrorism threats is a matter of concern. In Germany a spent nuclear fuel management program was developed by the government including a new concept of dry on-site interim storage instead of centralized interim storage. In order to minimize transports of spent fuel casks between nuclear power plants, reprocessing plants and central storage facilities, the operators of NPPs have to erect and to use interim storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel on the site or in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. Up to now, 11 on-site interim storage buildings, one storage tunnel and 4 on-site interim storage areas (preliminary cask storage till the on-site interim storage building is completed) have been licensed at 12 nuclear power plant sites. Inside the interim storage buildings the casks are kept in upright position, whereas at the preliminary interim storage areas horizontal storage of the casks on concrete slabs is used and each cask is covered by concrete elements. Storage buildings and concrete elements are designed only for gamma and neutron radiation shielding reasons and as weather protection. Therefore the security of spent fuel inside a dual purpose transport and storage cask depends on the inherent safety of the cask itself. For nearly three decades BAM has been investigating cask safety under severe accident conditions like drop tests from more than 9 m onto different targets and without impact limiters as well as artificially damaged prototype casks. Since the terror attacks of 11 September 2001 the determination of casks' inherent safety also under extreme impact conditions due to terrorist attacks has been of our increasing interest. With respect to spent fuel storage one of the most critical scenarios of a terrorist attack for a cask is the centric impact of a dynamic load onto the lid-seal-system caused e.g. by direct aircraft crash or its engine as well as by a

  6. EOS analysis of lower extremity segmental torsion in children and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaumétou, E; Quijano, S; Ilharreborde, B; Presedo, A; Thoreux, P; Mazda, K; Skalli, W

    2014-02-01

    Lower limb torsion varies substantially among healthy children during growth. Values reported in the literature to date have been obtained using semi-quantitative clinical or 2D measurement methods. Quantitative 3D measurement would help determine the physiological range of lower limb torsion. Low-dose stereoradiography with 3D reconstruction provides a good alternative. Its use increases in pediatrics because of radiation minimization. Previous studies have shown accurate and reproducible results of lower limbs reconstruction in adults and children but the torsional parameters haven't been measured yet. The present study reports the values of lower limb segmental torsion and its course during growth in a cohort of healthy children and young adults using the EOS low-dose biplanar X-ray. EOS 3D reconstruction is an accurate and reproducible method to measure the torsional parameters in children. Femoral torsion (FT) and tibial torsion (TT) were studied on 114 volunteers (228 lower limbs) from 6 to 30 years of age divided by age into 5 groups. The EOS™ acquisitions were obtained in subjects standing with their feet offset. Mean FT decreased during growth, passing from 21.6° to 18°, whereas mean TT increased from 26.8° to 34.7°. There was a statistically significant difference between the 2 extreme age groups, but no difference was found between any other age groups. The ICC for intra-observer reproducibility was 0.96 and 0.95 for FT and TT for the first operator, and 0.79 and 0.83 for the second operator respectively. The ICC for inter-observer reproducibility was 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. The course of lower limb segmental torsion observed was consistent with literature reports based upon clinical and 2D measurements. 3D reconstruction of EOS low-dose biplanar imaging appears to be a safe and reliable tool for lower limbs measurements, especially for investigating lower limb segmental torsion in children and adults. Level IV. Copyright © 2013. Published by

  7. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Shang

    Full Text Available Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS. Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA. Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

  8. Techniques involving extreme environment, nondestructive techniques, computer methods in metals research, and data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunshah, R.F.

    1976-01-01

    A number of different techniques which range over several different aspects of materials research are covered in this volume. They are concerned with property evaluation of 4 0 K and below, surface characterization, coating techniques, techniques for the fabrication of composite materials, computer methods, data evaluation and analysis, statistical design of experiments and non-destructive test techniques. Topics covered in this part include internal friction measurements; nondestructive testing techniques; statistical design of experiments and regression analysis in metallurgical research; and measurement of surfaces of engineering materials

  9. Human health implications of extreme precipitation events and water quality in California, USA: a canonical correlation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Gershunov, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pathogens and pollutants collect on the land surface or in infrastructure between strong rainfall episodes and are delivered via storm runoff to areas of human exposure, such as coastal recreational waters. In California, USA, precipitation events are projected to become more extreme and simultaneously decrease in frequency as storm tracks move poleward due to polar-amplified global warming. Precipitation extremes in California are dominated by atmospheric rivers, which carry more moisture in warmer climates. Thus, the physical driver of extreme precipitation events is expected to grow stronger with climate change, and pollutant accumulation and runoff-generated exposure to those pollutants are expected to increase, particularly after prolonged dry spells. Microbiological contamination of coastal waters during winter storms exposes human populations to elevated concentrations of microorganisms such as faecal bacteria, which could cause gastrointestinal and ear infections, and lead to exposure to pathogens causing life-threatening conditions, such as hepatitis A. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the effect of precipitation on coastal water quality in California. Methods: We used a recently published catalogue of atmospheric rivers, in combination with historical daily precipitation data and levels of three indicators of faecal bacteria (total and faecal coliforms, and Escherichia coli detected at roughly 500 monitoring locations in coastal waters along California's 840-mile coastline, to explore weekly associations between extreme precipitation events, particularly those related to atmospheric rivers, and the variability in water quality during 2003–09. We identified ten principal components (together explaining >90% of the variability in precipitation and faecal bacteria time-series to reduce the dimensionality of the datasets. We then performed canonical correlation analysis of the principal components to

  10. Avoidable 30-day mortality analysis and failure to rescue in dysvascular lower extremity amputees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied, Christian; Foss, Nicolai B; Tengberg, Peter T

    2018-01-01

    30 days after surgery. 4 deaths were classified as "definitely unavoidable," 4 as "probably unavoidable," and 23 as "FTR." Patients who died had a higher incidence of sepsis, pneumonia, and acute myocardial infarction compared with those alive. A log binominal regression analysis adjusted for age...

  11. Gamma-ray spectral analysis software designed for extreme ease of use or unattended operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckley, W.M.; Carlson, J.B.; Romine, W.A.

    1993-07-01

    We are developing isotopic analysis software in the Safeguards Technology Program that advances usability in two complimentary directions. The first direction is towards Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for very easy. to use applications. The second is toward a minimal user interface, but with additional features for unattended or fully automatic applications. We are developing a GUI-based spectral viewing engine that is currently running in the MS-Windows environment. We intend to use this core application to provide the common user interface for our data analysis, and subsequently data acquisition and instrument control applications. We are also investigating sets of cases where the MGA methodology produces reduced accuracy results, incorrect errors, or incorrect results. We try to determine the root cause for the problem and extend the methodology or replace portions of the Methodology so that MGA will function over a wider domain of analysis without requiring intervention and analysis by a spectroscopist. This effort is necessary for applications where such intervention is inconvenient or impractical

  12. Characterization of exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields using multidimensional analysis techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, A; Souques, M; Wallet, F

    2005-05-01

    Our lack of knowledge about the biological mechanisms of 50 Hz magnetic fields makes it hard to improve exposure assessment. To provide better information about these exposure measures, we use multidimensional analysis techniques to examine the relations between different exposure metrics for a group of subjects. We used a combination of a two stage Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by an ascending hierarchical classification (AHC) to identify a set of measures that would capture the characteristics of the total exposure. This analysis gives an indication of the aspects of the exposure that are important to capture to get a complete picture of the magnetic field environment. We calculated 44 metrics of exposure measures from 16 exposed EDF employees and 15 control subjects, containing approximately 20,000 recordings of magnetic field measurements, taken every 30 s for 7 days with an EMDEX II dosimeter. These metrics included parameters used routinely or occasionally and some that were new. To eliminate those that expressed the least variability and that were most highly correlated to one another, we began with an initial Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A second PCA of the remaining 12 metrics enabled us to identify from the foreground 82.7% of the variance: the first component (62.0%) was characterized by central tendency metrics, and the second (20.7%) by dispersion characteristics. We were able to use AHC to divide the entire sample (of individuals) into four groups according to the axes that emerged from the PCA. Finally, discriminant analysis tested the discriminant power of the variables in the exposed/control classification as well as those from the AHC classification. The first showed that two subjects had been incorrectly classified, while no classification error was observed in the second. This exploratory study underscores the need to improve exposure measures by using at least two dimensions: intensity and dispersion. It also indicates the

  13. Report of the advisory group meeting on elemental analysis of extremely small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This publication contains summary of discussions held at the meeting with brief description and comparative characteristics of most common nuclear analytical techniques used for analysis of very small samples as well as the conclusions of the meeting. Some aspect of reference materials and quality control are also discussed. The publication also contains individual contributions made by the participants, each of these papers haven provided with an abstract and indexed separately

  14. Dynamic Analysis of Jacket Substructure for Offshore Wind Turbine Generators under Extreme Environmental Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Jeng Lai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to develop dynamic analysis technologies regarding the design of offshore wind turbine generators (OWTGs, a special project called Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation (OC4 was conducted by IEA (International Energy Agency in 2010. A similar project named INER-OC4 has been performed by the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER to develop the OWTG technologies of Taiwan. Since the jacket substructure will be applied to Taiwan OWTGs before 2020, the INER-OC4 project has been devoted to the design and analysis of jacket support structure. In this work, the preliminary result of INER-OC4 is presented. A simplified analysis procedure for jacket support structure has been proposed. Both of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW OWTG FAST model and OC4 jacket substructure model have been built and analyzed under severe design load cases (DLCs of IEC (International Electrotechnical commission 61400-3. Simulation results of six severe DLCs are performed in this work and the results are in agreement with the requirements of API (American Petroleum Institute and NORSOK (Norwegian Petroleum Industry standards.

  15. Final Report Scalable Analysis Methods and In Situ Infrastructure for Extreme Scale Knowledge Discovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Leary, Patrick [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, NY (United States)

    2017-09-13

    The primary challenge motivating this project is the widening gap between the ability to compute information and to store it for subsequent analysis. This gap adversely impacts science code teams, who can perform analysis only on a small fraction of the data they calculate, resulting in the substantial likelihood of lost or missed science, when results are computed but not analyzed. Our approach is to perform as much analysis or visualization processing on data while it is still resident in memory, which is known as in situ processing. The idea in situ processing was not new at the time of the start of this effort in 2014, but efforts in that space were largely ad hoc, and there was no concerted effort within the research community that aimed to foster production-quality software tools suitable for use by Department of Energy (DOE) science projects. Our objective was to produce and enable the use of production-quality in situ methods and infrastructure, at scale, on DOE high-performance computing (HPC) facilities, though we expected to have an impact beyond DOE due to the widespread nature of the challenges, which affect virtually all large-scale computational science efforts. To achieve this objective, we engaged in software technology research and development (R&D), in close partnerships with DOE science code teams, to produce software technologies that were shown to run efficiently at scale on DOE HPC platforms.

  16. Three-phase bone scanning in reflex sympathetic dystrophy of the extremities: a semi-quantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granier, P.; Manicourt, D.H.; Pauwels, S.; Nagant de Deuxchaisnes, C.; Beckers, C.

    1994-01-01

    Three-phase bone scanning of the extremities (foot or hand) was performed in 40 normal subjects and in 56 patients with an unequivocal clinical diagnosis of reflex sympathetic dystrophy. The scintigraphic parameters studied were the ratios of tracer (SUPD SUPG Tc) activity in the affected side over the healthy side established for blood flow, blood pool, early vasculo-tissular fixation, and late bone fixation. In the controls, blood flow, blood pool, and early fixation showed considerable interindividual variation and only the variation of late fixation remained within narrow limits. Statistical analysis revealed that late fixation was most closely correlated with early fixation, which in turn was most close correlated with blood pool. The clinical and pathophysiological significance of these data is discussed. (authors). 33 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  17. Active disturbance rejection controller for chemical reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Both, Roxana; Dulf, Eva H.; Muresan, Cristina I.

    2015-01-01

    In the petrochemical industry, the synthesis of 2 ethyl-hexanol-oxo-alcohols (plasticizers alcohol) is of high importance, being achieved through hydrogenation of 2 ethyl-hexenal inside catalytic trickle bed three-phase reactors. For this type of processes the use of advanced control strategies is suitable due to their nonlinear behavior and extreme sensitivity to load changes and other disturbances. Due to the complexity of the mathematical model an approach was to use a simple linear model of the process in combination with an advanced control algorithm which takes into account the model uncertainties, the disturbances and command signal limitations like robust control. However the resulting controller is complex, involving cost effective hardware. This paper proposes a simple integer-order control scheme using a linear model of the process, based on active disturbance rejection method. By treating the model dynamics as a common disturbance and actively rejecting it, active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) can achieve the desired response. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

  18. Active disturbance rejection controller for chemical reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Both, Roxana; Dulf, Eva H.; Muresan, Cristina I., E-mail: roxana.both@aut.utcluj.ro [Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, 400114 Cluj-Napoca (Romania)

    2015-03-10

    In the petrochemical industry, the synthesis of 2 ethyl-hexanol-oxo-alcohols (plasticizers alcohol) is of high importance, being achieved through hydrogenation of 2 ethyl-hexenal inside catalytic trickle bed three-phase reactors. For this type of processes the use of advanced control strategies is suitable due to their nonlinear behavior and extreme sensitivity to load changes and other disturbances. Due to the complexity of the mathematical model an approach was to use a simple linear model of the process in combination with an advanced control algorithm which takes into account the model uncertainties, the disturbances and command signal limitations like robust control. However the resulting controller is complex, involving cost effective hardware. This paper proposes a simple integer-order control scheme using a linear model of the process, based on active disturbance rejection method. By treating the model dynamics as a common disturbance and actively rejecting it, active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) can achieve the desired response. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Maternal Black Race and Persistent Wheezing Illness in Former Extremely Low Gestational Age Newborns: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, Katherine C; Hibbs, Anna M; Steurer, Martina A; Black, Dennis M; Asselin, Jeanette M; Eichenwald, Eric C; Ballard, Philip L; Ballard, Roberta A; Keller, Roberta L

    2018-04-04

    To evaluate the relationship between maternal self-reported race/ethnicity and persistent wheezing illness in former high-risk, extremely low gestational age newborns, and to quantify the contribution of socioeconomic, environmental, and biological factors on this relationship. We assessed persistent wheezing illness determined at 18-24 months corrected (for prematurity) age in survivors of a randomized trial. Parents/caregivers were surveyed for wheeze and inhaled asthma medication use quarterly to 12 months, and at 18 and 24 months. We used multivariable analysis to evaluate the relationship of maternal race to persistent wheezing illness, and identified mediators for this relationship via formal mediation analysis. Of 420 infants (25.2 ± 1.2 weeks of gestation and 714 ± 166 g at birth, 57% male, 34% maternal black race), 189 (45%) had persistent wheezing illness. After adjustment for gestational age, birth weight, and sex, infants of black mothers had increased odds of persistent wheeze compared with infants of nonblack mothers (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.9, 4.5). Only bronchopulmonary dysplasia, breast milk diet, and public insurance status were identified as mediators. In this model, the direct effect of race accounted for 69% of the relationship between maternal race and persistent wheeze, whereas breast milk diet, public insurance status, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia accounted for 8%, 12%, and 10%, respectively. Among former high-risk extremely low gestational age newborns, infants of black mothers have increased odds of developing persistent wheeze. A substantial proportion of this effect is directly accounted for by race, which may reflect unmeasured environmental influences, and acquired and innate biological differences. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01022580. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Scalable Analysis Methods and In Situ Infrastructure for Extreme Scale Knowledge Discovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bethel, Wes [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-07-24

    The primary challenge motivating this team’s work is the widening gap between the ability to compute information and to store it for subsequent analysis. This gap adversely impacts science code teams, who are able to perform analysis only on a small fraction of the data they compute, resulting in the very real likelihood of lost or missed science, when results are computed but not analyzed. Our approach is to perform as much analysis or visualization processing on data while it is still resident in memory, an approach that is known as in situ processing. The idea in situ processing was not new at the time of the start of this effort in 2014, but efforts in that space were largely ad hoc, and there was no concerted effort within the research community that aimed to foster production-quality software tools suitable for use by DOE science projects. In large, our objective was produce and enable use of production-quality in situ methods and infrastructure, at scale, on DOE HPC facilities, though we expected to have impact beyond DOE due to the widespread nature of the challenges, which affect virtually all large-scale computational science efforts. To achieve that objective, we assembled a unique team of researchers consisting of representatives from DOE national laboratories, academia, and industry, and engaged in software technology R&D, as well as engaged in close partnerships with DOE science code teams, to produce software technologies that were shown to run effectively at scale on DOE HPC platforms.

  1. Scalable Analysis Methods and In Situ Infrastructure for Extreme Scale Knowledge Discovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duque, Earl P.N. [J.M. Smith International, LLC, Rutherford, NJ (United States). DBA Intelligent Light; Whitlock, Brad J. [J.M. Smith International, LLC, Rutherford, NJ (United States). DBA Intelligent Light

    2017-08-25

    High performance computers have for many years been on a trajectory that gives them extraordinary compute power with the addition of more and more compute cores. At the same time, other system parameters such as the amount of memory per core and bandwidth to storage have remained constant or have barely increased. This creates an imbalance in the computer, giving it the ability to compute a lot of data that it cannot reasonably save out due to time and storage constraints. While technologies have been invented to mitigate this problem (burst buffers, etc.), software has been adapting to employ in situ libraries which perform data analysis and visualization on simulation data while it is still resident in memory. This avoids the need to ever have to pay the costs of writing many terabytes of data files. Instead, in situ enables the creation of more concentrated data products such as statistics, plots, and data extracts, which are all far smaller than the full-sized volume data. With the increasing popularity of in situ, multiple in situ infrastructures have been created, each with its own mechanism for integrating with a simulation. To make it easier to instrument a simulation with multiple in situ infrastructures and include custom analysis algorithms, this project created the SENSEI framework.

  2. Disturbance of gene expression in primary human hepatocytes by hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids: A whole genome transcriptome analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckert, Claudia; Hessel, Stefanie; Lenze, Dido; Lampen, Alfonso

    2015-10-01

    1,2-unsaturated pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PA) are plant metabolites predominantly occurring in the plant families Asteraceae and Boraginaceae. Acute and chronic PA poisoning causes severe hepatotoxicity. So far, the molecular mechanisms of PA toxicity are not well understood. To analyze its mode of action, primary human hepatocytes were exposed to a non-cytotoxic dose of 100 μM of four structurally different PA: echimidine, heliotrine, senecionine, senkirkine. Changes in mRNA expression were analyzed by a whole genome microarray. Employing cut-off values with a |fold change| of 2 and a q-value of 0.01, data analysis revealed numerous changes in gene expression. In total, 4556, 1806, 3406 and 8623 genes were regulated by echimidine, heliotrine, senecione and senkirkine, respectively. 1304 genes were identified as commonly regulated. PA affected pathways related to cell cycle regulation, cell death and cancer development. The transcription factors TP53, MYC, NFκB and NUPR1 were predicted to be activated upon PA treatment. Furthermore, gene expression data showed a considerable interference with lipid metabolism and bile acid flow. The associated transcription factors FXR, LXR, SREBF1/2, and PPARα/γ/δ were predicted to be inhibited. In conclusion, though structurally different, all four PA significantly regulated a great number of genes in common. This proposes similar molecular mechanisms, although the extent seems to differ between the analyzed PA as reflected by the potential hepatotoxicity and individual PA structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. “2083 – A European Declaration of Independence” - An Analysis of Discourses from the Extreme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin von Brömssen

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses three of the dominating discourses Anders Behring Breivik used in his compendium, the official title of which is 2083 – A European Declaration of Independence, also known as Breivik's Manifesto. It is believed Breivik posted his Manifesto on the Internet shortly before the attacks in Norway in July, 2011. The number 2083 stands for the year when the “Western European Civil War” was expected to be completed, all traitors executed, and all Muslims deported from Europe. This article will discuss dominating discourses in the Manifesto, seen from a background of a European multicultural backlash, in which the political far-right movement is increasing. Furthermore, this article will end with a discussion of education and the importance of analysis of such phenomena within different subjects.

  4. Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2009-01-01

    , situated near Copenhagen in Denmark. For rainfall extracted using method 2, the marginal distribution of depth was found to fit the Generalized Pareto distribution while duration was found to fit the Gamma distribution, using the method of L-moments. The volume was fit with a generalized Pareto...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration...... distribution and the duration was fit with a Pearson type III distribution for rainfall extracted using method 3. The Clayton copula was found to be appropriate for bivariate analysis of rainfall depth and duration for both methods 2 and 3. DDF curves derived using the Clayton copula for depth and duration...

  5. A comparative numerical analysis of linear and nonlinear aerodynamic sound generation by vortex disturbances in homentropic constant shear flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hau, Jan-Niklas; Oberlack, Martin; Chagelishvili, George; Khujadze, George; Tevzadze, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    plane, which results in highly directional linear sound radiation, whereas the nonlinearly generated waves are almost omni-directional. As part of this analysis, we compare the effectiveness of the linear and nonlinear mechanisms of wave generation within the range of validity of the rapid distortion theory and show the dominance of the linear aerodynamic sound generation. Finally, topological differences between the linear source term of the acoustic analogy equation and of the anisotropic non-normality induced linear mechanism of wave generation are found

  6. Sleep disturbances in Parkinsonism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askenasy, J J M

    2003-02-01

    The present article is meant to suggest an approach to the guidelines for the therapy of sleep disturbances in Parkinson's Disease (PD) patients.The factors affecting the quality of life in PD patients are depression, sleep disturbances and dependence. A large review of the literature on sleep disturbances in PD patients, provided the basis for the following classification of the sleep-arousal disturbances in PD patients. We suggest a model based on 3 steps in the treatment of sleep disturbances in PD patients. This model allowing the patient, the spouse or the caregiver a quiet sleep at night, may postpone the retirement and the institutionalization of the PD patient. I. Correct diagnosis of sleep disorders based on detailed anamnesis of the patient and of the spouse or of the caregiver. One week recording on a symptom diary (log) by the patient or the caregiver. Correct diagnosis of sleep disorders co morbidities. Selection of the most appropriate sleep test among: polysomnography (PSG), multiple sleep latency test (MSLT), multiple wake latency test (MWLT), Epworth Sleepiness Scale, actigraphy or video-PSG. II. The nonspecific therapeutic approach consists in: a) Checking the sleep effect on motor performance, is it beneficial, worse or neutral. b) Psycho-physical assistance. c) Dopaminergic adjustment is necessary owing to the progression of the nigrostriatal degeneration and the increased sensitivity of the terminals, which alter the normal modulator mechanisms of the motor centers in PD patients. Among the many neurotransmitters of the nigro-striatal pathway one can distinguish two with a major influence on REM and NonREM sleep. REM sleep corresponds to an increased cholinergic receptor activity and a decreased dopaminergic activity. This is the reason why REM sleep deprivation by suppressing cholinergic receptor activity ameliorates PD motor symptoms. L-Dopa and its agonists by suppressing cholinergic receptors suppress REM sleep. The permanent adjustment

  7. Forced wave induced by an atmospheric pressure disturbance moving towards shore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yixiang; Niu, Xiaojing

    2018-05-01

    Atmospheric pressure disturbances moving over a vast expanse of water can induce different wave patterns, which can be determined by the Froude number Fr. Generally, Fr = 1 is a critical value for the transformation of the wave pattern and the well-known Proudman resonance happens when Fr = 1. In this study, the forced wave induced by an atmospheric pressure disturbance moving over a constant slope from deep sea to shore is numerically investigated. The wave pattern evolves from a concentric-circle type into a triangular type with the increase of the Froude number, as the local water depth decreases, which is in accord with the analysis in the unbounded flat-bottom cases. However, a hysteresis effect has been observed, which implies the obvious amplification of the forced wave induced by a pressure disturbance can not be simply predicted by Fr = 1. The effects of the characteristic parameters of pressure disturbances and slope gradient have been discussed. The results show that it is not always possible to observe significant peak of the maximum water elevation before the landing of pressure disturbances, and a significant peak can be generated by a pressure disturbance with small spatial scale and fast moving velocity over a milder slope. Besides, an extremely high run-up occurs when the forced wave hits the shore, which is an essential threat to coastal security. The results also show that the maximum run-up is not monotonously varying with the increase of disturbance moving speed and spatial scale. There exists a most dangerous speed and scale which may cause disastrous nearshore surge.

  8. Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Abbie; Komers, Petr E

    2017-06-01

    Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator-prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe-haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose ( Alces alces ) density and wolf ( Canis lupus ) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km 2 area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where 43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator-prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.

  9. Standard practice for extreme value analysis of nonmetallic inclusions in steel and other microstructural features

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2008-01-01

    1.1 This practice describes a methodology to statistically characterize the distribution of the largest indigenous nonmetallic inclusions in steel specimens based upon quantitative metallographic measurements. The practice is not suitable for assessing exogenous inclusions. 1.2 Based upon the statistical analysis, the nonmetallic content of different lots of steels can be compared. 1.3 This practice deals only with the recommended test methods and nothing in it should be construed as defining or establishing limits of acceptability. 1.4 The measured values are stated in SI units. For measurements obtained from light microscopy, linear feature parameters shall be reported as micrometers, and feature areas shall be reported as micrometers. 1.5 The methodology can be extended to other materials and to other microstructural features. 1.6 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish app...

  10. Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

    2018-06-01

    Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

  11. 5 year radar-based rainfall statistics: disturbances analysis and development of a post-correction scheme for the German radar composite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, A.; Seltmann, J.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-02-01

    A radar-based rainfall statistic demands high quality data that provide realistic precipitation amounts in space and time. Instead of correcting single radar images, we developed a post-correction scheme for long-term composite radar data that corrects corrupted areas, but preserves the original precipitation patterns. The post-correction scheme is based on a 5 year statistical analysis of radar composite data and its constituents. The accumulation of radar images reveals artificial effects that are not visible in the individual radar images. Some of them are already inherent to single radar data such as the effect of increasing beam height, beam blockage or clutter remnants. More artificial effects are introduced in the process of compositing such as sharp gradients at the boundaries of overlapping areas due to different beam heights and resolution. The cause of these disturbances, their behaviour with respect to reflectivity level, season or altitude is analysed based on time-series of two radar products: the single radar reflectivity product PX for each of the 16 radar systems of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) for the time span 2000 to 2006 and the radar composite product RX of DWD from 2005 through to 2009. These statistics result in additional quality information on radar data that is not available elsewhere. The resulting robust characteristics of disturbances, e.g. the dependency of the frequencies of occurrence of radar reflectivities on beam height, are then used as a basis for the post-correction algorithm. The scheme comprises corrections for shading effects and speckles, such as clutter remnants or overfiltering, as well as for systematic differences in frequencies of occurrence of radar reflectivities between the near and the far ranges of individual radar sites. An adjustment to rain gauges is also included. Applying this correction, the Root-Mean-Square-Error for the comparison of radar derived annual rain amounts with rain gauge data

  12. Nutritional disturbances by adolescent

    OpenAIRE

    Stassart, Martine

    2011-01-01

    The nutritional disturbances are frequent by adolescents. That is a psychological defense against dependance toward the mother but also a middle to remain in a childish position i.e. either as a fat baby - in the fall of obesity- or as the ideal pre- or bisexual great child - in the case of anorexia.

  13. Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong-Gil; Kim, Wan-Soo

    2018-05-15

    BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. MATERIAL AND METHODS This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. RESULTS In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (psimple correlation analysis, all variables that passed the correlation analysis procedure had significant influence (plinear regression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). CONCLUSIONS Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement.

  14. Sleep-wake disturbances after traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouellet, Marie-Christine; Beaulieu-Bonneau, Simon; Morin, Charles M

    2015-07-01

    Sleep-wake disturbances are extremely common after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). The most common disturbances are insomnia (difficulties falling or staying asleep), increased sleep need, and excessive daytime sleepiness that can be due to the TBI or other sleep disorders associated with TBI, such as sleep-related breathing disorder or post-traumatic hypersomnia. Sleep-wake disturbances can have a major effect on functional outcomes and on the recovery process after TBI. These negative effects can exacerbate other common sequelae of TBI-such as fatigue, pain, cognitive impairments, and psychological disorders (eg, depression and anxiety). Sleep-wake disturbances associated with TBI warrant treatment. Although evidence specific to patients with TBI is still scarce, cognitive-behavioural therapy and medication could prove helpful to alleviate sleep-wake disturbances in patients with a TBI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  16. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  17. Postoperative circadian disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gögenur, Ismail

    2010-01-01

    ) in urine the first night after both minor and major surgery. This delay after major surgery was correlated to the duration of surgery. The amplitude in the melatonin rhythm was unchanged the first night but increased in the second night after major surgery. The amplitude in AMT6s was reduced the first...... night after minimally invasive surgery. The core body temperature rhythm was disturbed after both major and minor surgery. There was a change in the sleep wake cycle with a significantly increased duration of REM-sleep in the day and evening time after major surgery compared with preoperatively....... There was also a shift in the autonomic nervous balance after major surgery with a significantly increased number of myocardial ischaemic episodes during the nighttime period. The circadian activity rhythm was also disturbed after both minor and major surgery. The daytime AMT6s excretion in urine after major...

  18. 300 Area Disturbance Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LL Hale; MK Wright; NA Cadoret

    1999-01-07

    The objective of this study was to define areas of previous disturbance in the 300 Area of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site to eliminate these areas from the cultural resource review process, reduce cultural resource monitoring costs, and allow cultural resource specialists to focus on areas where subsurface disturbance is minimal or nonexistent. Research into available sources suggests that impacts from excavations have been significant wherever the following construction activities have occurred: building basements and pits, waste ponds, burial grounds, trenches, installation of subsurface pipelines, power poles, water hydrants, and well construction. Beyond the areas just mentioned, substrates in the' 300 Area consist of a complex, multidimen- sional mosaic composed of undisturbed stratigraphy, backfill, and disturbed sediments; Four Geographic Information System (GIS) maps were created to display known areas of disturbance in the 300 Area. These maps contain information gleaned from a variety of sources, but the primary sources include the Hanford GIS database system, engineer drawings, and historic maps. In addition to these maps, several assumptions can be made about areas of disturbance in the 300 Area as a result of this study: o o Buried pipelines are not always located where they are mapped. As a result, cultural resource monitors or specialists should not depend on maps depicting subsurface pipelines for accurate locations of previous disturbance. Temporary roads built in the early 1940s were placed on layers of sand and gravel 8 to 12 in. thick. Given this information, it is likely that substrates beneath these early roads are only minimally disturbed. Building foundations ranged from concrete slabs no more than 6 to 8 in. thick to deeply excavated pits and basements. Buildings constructed with slab foundations are more numerous than may be expected, and minimally disturbed substrates may be expected in these locations. Historic

  19. Integrated analysis of CFD data with K-means clustering algorithm and extreme learning machine for localized HVAC control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Hongming; Soh, Yeng Chai; Wu, Xiaoying

    2015-01-01

    Maintaining a desired comfort level while minimizing the total energy consumed is an interesting optimization problem in Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) system control. This paper proposes a localized control strategy that uses Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation results and K-means clustering algorithm to optimally partition an air-conditioned room into different zones. The temperature and air velocity results from CFD simulation are combined in two ways: 1) based on the relationship indicated in predicted mean vote (PMV) formula; 2) based on the relationship extracted from ASHRAE RP-884 database using extreme learning machine (ELM). Localized control can then be effected in which each of the zones can be treated individually and an optimal control strategy can be developed based on the partitioning result. - Highlights: • The paper provides a visual guideline for thermal comfort analysis. • CFD, K-means, PMV and ELM are used to analyze thermal conditions within a room. • Localized control strategy could be developed based on our clustering results

  20. A novel approach for detection and classification of mammographic microcalcifications using wavelet analysis and extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malar, E; Kandaswamy, A; Chakravarthy, D; Giri Dharan, A

    2012-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to reveal the effectiveness of wavelet based tissue texture analysis for microcalcification detection in digitized mammograms using Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). Microcalcifications are tiny deposits of calcium in the breast tissue which are potential indicators for early detection of breast cancer. The dense nature of the breast tissue and the poor contrast of the mammogram image prohibit the effectiveness in identifying microcalcifications. Hence, a new approach to discriminate the microcalcifications from the normal tissue is done using wavelet features and is compared with different feature vectors extracted using Gray Level Spatial Dependence Matrix (GLSDM) and Gabor filter based techniques. A total of 120 Region of Interests (ROIs) extracted from 55 mammogram images of mini-Mias database, including normal and microcalcification images are used in the current research. The network is trained with the above mentioned features and the results denote that ELM produces relatively better classification accuracy (94%) with a significant reduction in training time than the other artificial neural networks like Bayesnet classifier, Naivebayes classifier, and Support Vector Machine. ELM also avoids problems like local minima, improper learning rate, and over fitting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Determination of uranium and thorium activity concentrations using activation analysis in beach sands from extreme south Bahia, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Danilo C.; Oliveira, Arno H.; Silva, Mario R.S.; Penna, Rodrigo; Santos, Talita O.; Pereira, Claubia; Rocha, Zildete; Menezes, Maria Angela B.C.

    2009-01-01

    Levels of natural radioactivity are the major cause of external exposure to gamma radiation. Thus, the determination of activity concentration of primordial radionuclides, such as 238 U and 232 Th, in soils, sand and rock is of basic importance to estimate the radiation levels to which man is directly or indirectly exposed. In order to study the process of specific activity of 238 U and 232 Th, beaches sands samples were collected from eight different locations in extreme south of Bahia state from Brazil. The samples have been analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analyses and for determination of thorium concentrations and delayed neutrons analysis for determination of uranium. The mean specific activity for 238 U and 232 Th was higher in Cumuruxatiba than in others locations studied. Alcobaca and Caraiva also presented high values. The concentrations of these radionuclides were compared with typical world values and Cumuruxatiba have specific activity higher than the others locations, 2,984 Bq/kg maximum value for 238 U and 1,8450 Bq/kg maximum value for 232 Th and activity concentrations in Cumuruxatiba are higher in black sand than in no black sand, suggesting presence of monazite.(author)

  2. Rehabilitation of disturbed land

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, L.C. [Australian Centre for Minesite Rehabilitation Research, Kenmore, Qld. (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    This chapter discusses the objectives of rehabilitation of lands in Australian disturbed by mining. It gives advice on rehabilitation planning and outlines the factors influencing post-mining land use and rehabilitation strategies, including climate, topography, hydrology, properties of soils, overburden and mineral processing wastes, flora and fauna and social considerations. Finally, the key elements of a rehabilitation plan are discussed, namely: landscape reconstruction; selective handling of overburden; and establishment and maintenance of a vegetative cover. 12 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rieder, Harald E. (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)), e-mail: hr2302@columbia.edu; Jancso, Leonhardt M. (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics, Univ. of Innsbruck, Innsbruck (Austria)); Di Rocco, Stefania (Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)) (and others)

    2011-11-15

    We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear 'fingerprints' of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector

  4. Metagenomic Analysis of Hot Springs in Central India Reveals Hydrocarbon Degrading Thermophiles and Pathways Essential for Survival in Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rituja; Dhakan, Darshan B.; Mittal, Parul; Waiker, Prashant; Chowdhury, Anirban; Ghatak, Arundhuti; Sharma, Vineet K.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme ecosystems such as hot springs are of great interest as a source of novel extremophilic species, enzymes, metabolic functions for survival and biotechnological products. India harbors hundreds of hot springs, the majority of which are not yet explored and require comprehensive studies to unravel their unknown and untapped phylogenetic and functional diversity. The aim of this study was to perform a large-scale metagenomic analysis of three major hot springs located in central India namely, Badi Anhoni, Chhoti Anhoni, and Tattapani at two geographically distinct regions (Anhoni and Tattapani), to uncover the resident microbial community and their metabolic traits. Samples were collected from seven distinct sites of the three hot spring locations with temperature ranging from 43.5 to 98°C. The 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing of V3 hypervariable region and shotgun metagenome sequencing uncovered a unique taxonomic and metabolic diversity of the resident thermophilic microbial community in these hot springs. Genes associated with hydrocarbon degradation pathways, such as benzoate, xylene, toluene, and benzene were observed to be abundant in the Anhoni hot springs (43.5–55°C), dominated by Pseudomonas stutzeri and Acidovorax sp., suggesting the presence of chemoorganotrophic thermophilic community with the ability to utilize complex hydrocarbons as a source of energy. A high abundance of genes belonging to methane metabolism pathway was observed at Chhoti Anhoni hot spring, where methane is reported to constitute >80% of all the emitted gases, which was marked by the high abundance of Methylococcus capsulatus. The Tattapani hot spring, with a high-temperature range (61.5–98°C), displayed a lower microbial diversity and was primarily dominated by a nitrate-reducing archaeal species Pyrobaculum aerophilum. A higher abundance of cell metabolism pathways essential for the microbial survival in extreme conditions was observed at Tattapani. Taken together

  5. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams Susan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

  6. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duspara, Boris; Greitemeyer, Tobias

    2017-10-01

    Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research ( N = 675), we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other.

  7. Identification of salt-induced genes from Salicornia brachiata, an extreme halophyte through expressed sequence tags analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Bhavanath; Agarwal, Pradeep K; Reddy, Palakolanu Sudhakar; Lal, Sanjay; Sopory, Sudhir K; Reddy, Malireddy K

    2009-04-01

    Salinity severely affects plant growth and development causing crop loss worldwide. We have isolated a large number of salt-induced genes as well as unknown and hypothetical genes from Salicornia brachiata Roxb. (Amaranthaceae). This is the first description of identification of genes in response to salinity stress in this extreme halophyte plant. Salicornia accumulates salt in its pith and survives even at 2 M NaCl under field conditions. For isolating salt responsive genes, cDNA subtractive hybridization was performed between control and 500 mM NaCl treated plants. Out of the 1200 recombinant clones, 930 sequences were submitted to the NCBI database (GenBank accession: EB484528 to EB485289 and EC906125 to EC906292). 789 ESTs showed matching with different genes in NCBI database. 4.8% ESTs belonged to stress-tolerant gene category and approximately 29% ESTs showed no homology with known functional gene sequences, thus classified as unknown or hypothetical. The detection of a large number of ESTs with unknown putative function in this species makes it an interesting contribution. The 90 unknown and hypothetical genes were selected to study their differential regulation by reverse Northern analysis for identifying their role in salinity tolerance. Interestingly, both up and down regulation at 500 mM NaCl were observed (21 and 10 genes, respectively). Northern analysis of two important salt tolerant genes, ASR1 (Abscisic acid stress ripening gene) and plasma membrane H+ATPase, showed the basal level of transcripts in control condition and an increase with NaCl treatment. ASR1 gene is made full length using 5' RACE and its potential role in imparting salt tolerance is being studied.

  8. Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong-Gil

    2018-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. Material/Methods This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. Results In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (pregression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). Conclusions Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement. PMID:29760375

  9. Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

  10. Climate change and forest disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

    2001-01-01

    This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

  11. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  12. Dynamic stability analysis of circular arch subjected to follower forces with small disturbances; Judo kaju wo ukeru enkei arch no yuran ni yoru doteki kyodo to anteisei kaiseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukuchi, N.; Okada, K. [Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Hirano, Y. [Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-09-04

    This paper describes the deformation and dynamic stability of circular arch subjected to follower forces in a submerged membrane type marine structure reinforced by arch frames. Governing equations for finite deformations of the circular arch subjected to follower forces are introduced using an embedded curve coordinate, which are formulated by applying Galerkin method. In addition, equations of motion due to small disturbances under given condition of loading are introduced. Based on these equations, dynamic stability of the arch is analyzed by means of Runnge-Kutta-Gill method, to clarify the relationship between disturbances and instability regions and the resulting phenomena. Near the boundary regions of stability, both amplitude and cycle of deformation are greatly affected by the amplitude of disturbances. The dynamic instability is governed by the inverse symmetry primary mode with minimum characteristic frequency which is specific for the circular arch. The dynamic stability has high parameter dependency, and the instability regions have a complicated shapes. Although flattened arch has a smaller static critical load, it provides the dynamic stability against the disturbance. 5 refs., 10 figs.

  13. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Altava-Ortiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  14. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Barnolas, M.; López, L.; Altava-Ortiz, V.

    2009-07-01

    This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  15. Disturbance by optimal discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakubo, Ryûitirô; Koike, Tatsuhiko

    2018-03-01

    We discuss the disturbance by measurements which unambiguously discriminate between given candidate states. We prove that such an optimal measurement necessarily changes distinguishable states indistinguishable when the inconclusive outcome is obtained. The result was previously shown by Chefles [Phys. Lett. A 239, 339 (1998), 10.1016/S0375-9601(98)00064-4] under restrictions on the class of quantum measurements and on the definition of optimality. Our theorems remove these restrictions and are also applicable to infinitely many candidate states. Combining with our previous results, one can obtain concrete mathematical conditions for the resulting states. The method may have a wide variety of applications in contexts other than state discrimination.

  16. Defining Disturbance for Microbial Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plante, Craig J

    2017-08-01

    Disturbance can profoundly modify the structure of natural communities. However, microbial ecologists' concept of "disturbance" has often deviated from conventional practice. Definitions (or implicit usage) have frequently included climate change and other forms of chronic environmental stress, which contradict the macrobiologist's notion of disturbance as a discrete event that removes biomass. Physical constraints and disparate biological characteristics were compared to ask whether disturbances fundamentally differ in microbial and macroorganismal communities. A definition of "disturbance" for microbial ecologists is proposed that distinguishes from "stress" and other competing terms, and that is in accord with definitions accepted by plant and animal ecologists.

  17. Disturbance rejection performance analyses of closed loop control systems by reference to disturbance ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagoz, Baris Baykant; Deniz, Furkan Nur; Keles, Cemal; Tan, Nusret

    2015-03-01

    This study investigates disturbance rejection capacity of closed loop control systems by means of reference to disturbance ratio (RDR). The RDR analysis calculates the ratio of reference signal energy to disturbance signal energy at the system output and provides a quantitative evaluation of disturbance rejection performance of control systems on the bases of communication channel limitations. Essentially, RDR provides a straightforward analytical method for the comparison and improvement of implicit disturbance rejection capacity of closed loop control systems. Theoretical analyses demonstrate us that RDR of the negative feedback closed loop control systems are determined by energy spectral density of controller transfer function. In this manner, authors derived design criteria for specifications of disturbance rejection performances of PID and fractional order PID (FOPID) controller structures. RDR spectra are calculated for investigation of frequency dependence of disturbance rejection capacity and spectral RDR analyses are carried out for PID and FOPID controllers. For the validation of theoretical results, simulation examples are presented. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Duspara

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research (N = 675, we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other. Keywords: Political science, Sociology, Psychology

  19. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  20. Extreme value analysis of air pollution data and their comparison between two large urban regions of South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Droprinchinski Martins

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sixteen years of hourly atmospheric pollutant data (1996–2011 in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP, and seven years (2005–2011 of data measured in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ, were analyzed in order to study the extreme pollution events and their return period. In addition, the objective was to compare the air quality between the two largest Brazilian urban areas and provide information for decision makers, government agencies and civil society. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were applied to investigate the behavior of pollutants in these two regions. Although GEV and GPD are different approaches, they presented similar results. The probability of higher concentrations for CO, NO, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 was more frequent during the winter, and O3 episodes occur most frequently during summer in the MASP. On the other hand, there is no seasonally defined behavior in MARJ for pollutants, with O3 presenting the shortest return period for high concentrations. In general, Ibirapuera and Campos Elísios stations present the highest probabilities of extreme events with high concentrations in MASP and MARJ, respectively. When the regions are compared, MASP presented higher probabilities of extreme events for all analyzed pollutants, except for NO; while O3 and PM2.5 are those with most frequent probabilities of presenting extreme episodes, in comparison other pollutants. Keywords: Air pollutants, Extreme events, Megacities, Ozone, Particulate matter

  1. Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

  2. Post-disturbance sediment recovery: Implications for watershed resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathburn, Sara L.; Shahverdian, Scott M.; Ryan, Sandra E.

    2018-03-01

    Sediment recovery following disturbances is a measure of the time required to attain pre-disturbance sediment fluxes. Insight into the controls on recovery processes and pathways builds understanding of geomorphic resilience. We assess post-disturbance sediment recovery in three small (1.5-100 km2), largely unaltered watersheds within the northern Colorado Rocky Mountains affected by wildfires, floods, and debris flows. Disturbance regimes span 102 (floods, debris flows) to 103 years (wildfires). For all case studies, event sediment recovery followed a nonlinear pattern: initial high sediment flux during single precipitation events or high annual snowmelt runoff followed by decreasing sediment fluxes over time. Disturbance interactions were evaluated after a high-severity fire within the South Fork Cache la Poudre basin was followed by an extreme flood one year post-fire. This compound disturbance hastened suspended sediment recovery to pre-fire concentrations 3 years after the fire. Wildfires over the last 1900 YBP in the South Fork basin indicate fire recurrence intervals of 600 years. Debris flows within the upper Colorado River basin over the last two centuries have shifted the baseline of sediment recovery caused by anthropogenic activities that increased debris flow frequency. An extreme flood on North St. Vrain Creek with an impounding reservoir resulted in extreme sedimentation that led to a physical state change. We introduce an index of resilience as sediment recovery/disturbance recurrence interval, providing a relative comparison between sites. Sediment recovery and channel form resilience may be inversely related because of high or low physical complexity in streams. We propose management guidelines to enhance geomorphic resilience by promoting natural processes that maintain physical complexity. Finally, sediment connectivity within watersheds is an additional factor to consider when establishing restoration treatment priorities.

  3. Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Friedl, Mark A.

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada’s boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada’s boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada’s boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones.

  4. Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre- and post-disturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

  5. Analysis of morphological variability and heritability in the head of the Argentine Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae): undisturbed vs. disturbed environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Carolina; Giri, Federico; Siroski, Pablo; Amavet, Patricia

    2018-04-01

    The heterogeneity of biotic and abiotic factors influencing fitness produce selective pressures that promote local adaptation and divergence among different populations of the same species. In order for adaptations to be maintained through evolutionary time, heritable genetic variation controlling the expression of the morphological features under selection is necessary. Here we compare morphological shape variability and size of the cephalic region of Salvator merianae specimens from undisturbed environments to those of individuals from disturbed environments, and estimated heritability for shape and size using geometric morphometric and quantitative genetics tools. The results of these analyzes indicated that there are statistically significant differences in shape and size between populations from the two environments. Possibly, one of the main determinants of cephalic shape and size is adaptation to the characteristics of the environment and to the trophic niche. Individuals from disturbed environments have a cephalic region with less shape variation and also have a larger centroid size when compared to individuals from undisturbed environments. The high heritability values obtained for shape and size in dorsal view and right side view indicate that these phenotypic characters have a great capacity to respond to the selection pressures to which they are subjected. Data obtained here could be used as an important tool when establishing guidelines for plans for the sustainable use and conservation of S. merianae and other species living in disturbed areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  6. Microbial survival of space vacuum and extreme ultraviolet irradiation: strain isolation and analysis during a rocket flight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffary, Roya; Nandakumar, Renu; Spencer, Dennis; Robb, Frank T; Davila, Joseph M; Swartz, Marvin; Ofman, Leon; Thomas, Roger J; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne

    2002-09-24

    We have recovered new isolates from hot springs, in Yellowstone National Park and the Kamchatka Peninsula, after gamma-irradiation and exposure to high vacuum (10(-6) Pa) of the water and sediment samples. The resistance to desiccation and ionizing radiation of one of the isolates, Bacillus sp. strain PS3D, was compared to that of the mesophilic bacterium, Deinococcus radiodurans, a species well known for its extraordinary resistance to desiccation and high doses of ionizing radiation. Survival of these two microorganisms was determined in real and simulated space conditions, including exposure to extreme UV radiation (10-100 nm) during a rocket flight. We found that up to 15 days of desiccation alone had little effect on the viability of either bacterium. In contrast, exposure to space vacuum ( approximately 10(-6) Pa) decreased cell survival by two and four orders of magnitude for Bacillus sp. strain PS3D and D. radiodurans, respectively. Simultaneous exposure to space vacuum and extreme UV radiation further decreased the survival of both organisms, compared to unirradiated controls. This is the first report on the isolated effect of extreme UV at 30 nm on cell survival. Extreme UV can only be transmitted through high vacuum, therefore its penetration into the cells may only be superficial, suggesting that in contrast to near UV, membrane proteins rather than DNA were damaged by the radiation.

  7. Extreme genomes

    OpenAIRE

    DeLong, Edward F

    2000-01-01

    The complete genome sequence of Thermoplasma acidophilum, an acid- and heat-loving archaeon, has recently been reported. Comparative genomic analysis of this 'extremophile' is providing new insights into the metabolic machinery, ecology and evolution of thermophilic archaea.

  8. Diagnostic orientation in control of disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, K.; Norros, L.

    1993-01-01

    The object of the study is diagnostic judgement in the control of dynamic processes. The starting point was the known difficulty process operators have in utilizing knowledge of process dynamics in disturbance situations that require both diagnostic and prognostic actions. A model of the diagnostic judgement process as a construction of coherent interpretation of the situation is outlined, and comprehensive data from simulated disturbance handling by 6 crews of a PWR type nuclear power plant was analysed. The phase of analysis included evaluation of the adequacy of task performance, utilization of available process information, and evaluation of the interpretation of disturbance situations. The results suggest that a functional orientation towards task performance allows a more coherent and comprehensive interpretation of the situation and more adequate task performance. Coherence of interpretation seems to be reflected in a higher subjective certainty compared with crews with an incoherent interpretation. (author). 15 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  9. Ionospheric irregularities in periods of meteorological disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchevkina, O. P.; Karpov, I. V.

    2017-09-01

    The results of observations of the total electron content (TEC) in periods of storm disturbances of meteorological situation are presented in the paper. The observational results have shown that a passage of a meteorological storm is accompanied by a substantial decrease in values of TEC and critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 region. The decreases in values of these ionospheric parameters reach 50% and up to 30% in TEC and critical frequency of the F2 layer, respectively, as compared to meteorologically quiet days. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the processes related to formation of local regions of thermospheric heating due to a dissipation of AGW coming into the upper atmosphere from the region of the meteorological disturbance in the lower atmosphere are a possible cause of these ionospheric disturbances.

  10. Work Time Control and Sleep Disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salo, Paula; Ala-Mursula, Leena; Rod, Naja Hulvej

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Employee control over work times has been associated with favorable psychosocial and health-related outcomes, but the evidence regarding sleep quality remains inconclusive. We examined cross-sectional and prospective associations between work time control and sleep disturbances...... in a large working population, taking into account total hours worked. METHODS: The data were from a full-panel longitudinal cohort study of Finnish public sector employees who responded to questions on work time control and sleep disturbances in years 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2008-2009, and 2012. The analysis....... RESULTS: Consistently in both cross-sectional and longitudinal models, less control over work time was associated with greater sleep disturbances in the total population and among those working normal 40-hour weeks. Among participants working more than 40 hours a week, work time that was both very high...

  11. A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

  12. Sleep Disturbances in Mood Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumble, Meredith E; White, Kaitlin Hanley; Benca, Ruth M

    2015-12-01

    The article provides an overview of common and differentiating self-reported and objective sleep disturbances seen in mood-disordered populations. The importance of considering sleep disturbances in the context of mood disorders is emphasized, because a large body of evidence supports the notion that sleep disturbances are a risk factor for onset, exacerbation, and relapse of mood disorders. In addition, potential mechanisms for sleep disturbance in depression, other primary sleep disorders that often occur with mood disorders, effects of antidepressant and mood-stabilizing drugs on sleep, and the adjunctive effect of treating sleep in patients with mood disorders are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Homicides of law enforcement officers responding to domestic disturbance calls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kercher, Cassandra; Swedler, David I; Pollack, Keshia M; Webster, Daniel W

    2013-10-01

    To describe the law enforcement officer (LEO), encounter, perpetrator and victim characteristics of domestic disturbance-related LEO homicides in the USA from 1996 to 2010. Narrative text analysis was conducted on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's annual report 'Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted'. Potential cases were confirmed if the narrative included the term 'domestic disturbance' or a domestic disturbance situation was described. 116 LEOs were killed while responding to domestic disturbance calls. Ninety-five per cent of these homicides were committed with a firearm. Sixty-seven per cent of LEOs were wearing body armour when killed; however, 52% received the fatal wound to the head/neck. Sixty-one per cent of suspects had a criminal history mentioned within the narratives and perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) were more likely to be killed by LEOs than suspects involved in other forms of domestic violence. Victims of the domestic disturbance were killed in 21% of the IPV-related LEO homicide cases as opposed to only 5% of other domestic disturbance calls. A firearm was the most common weapon used in the murder of a domestic disturbance victim (86%). This study describes domestic disturbance-related LEO homicides. Future research in this area should further examine the dangers unique to domestic disturbance calls. A longitudinal analysis could provide greater understanding of the injury and mortality risks faced by LEOs, in order to inform homicide prevention among law enforcement.

  14. Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korup, Oliver

    2012-05-01

    Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

  15. Disturbance Hydrology: Preparing for an Increasingly Disturbed Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

    2017-12-01

    This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

  16. Sleep disturbances in restless legs syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jović Jasmina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Resteless legs syndrome (RLS is chronical neurological disorder characterized by urge to move legs that is usually accompanied by unpleasant sensations in the lower extremities. Sleep disturbance is one of the main accompanying symptoms of RLS which exists in approximatelly 90% of patients. Impairment of sleep is related to daily sleepiness, depressive and anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to detect frequency and characterisitics of sleep-related symptoms in patients with RLS, and its impairrment to daily sleepiness, fatique, anxiety and depression. Methods. We have examinated 94 patients with RLS. The diagnose of RLS was based on questionnaire with 4 specific questions according to the International Restless Legs Syndrome Study Group (IRLSSG criteria updated in 2003. Severity of symptoms was astimated with IRLSSG Rating Scale, depression and anxiety with Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS and Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HARS and sleepiness with Epworth Sleepiness scale (ESS. We astimated sleep characteristics and disturbances with specific questionnaire. Results. In our study 79.9% of patients had sleep-related symptoms. Average sleep duration was 6.50 ± 1.42 hours, with average frequency of awakening 2.34 ± 1.69 times per night. Average ESS score was 5.12 ± 4.08 (0–17. Patients with more severe symptoms had higher degree of sleepiness (p = 0.005. Patients with higher symptoms frequency, significantly more often had sleep disturbance (p = 0.016, tiredness and daily sleepiness (p = 0.001. Daily sleepiness (ESS also significantly correlates with depression (p < 0.05 and anxiety (p = 0.012. Conclusion. Our results confirm that sleep disturbances are one of the key accompanying symptoms of RLS which cause daily sleepiness, tiredness, depression and anxiety. Therefore, their early recognition and appropriate treatment must be a priority in RLS patients.

  17. A comparative analysis of functional outcomes in adolescents and young adults with lower-extremity bone sarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Jill P; Rai, Shesh N; Carlson, Claire A; Meadows, Anna T; Hinds, Pamela S; Spearing, Elena M; Zhang, Lijun; Callaway, Lulie; Neel, Michael D; Rao, Bhaskar N; Marchese, Victoria G

    2007-12-01

    Comparison of functional mobility and quality of life is performed in patients with lower-extremity bone sarcoma following either amputation, limb-sparing surgery, or rotationplasty with four different types of outcome measures: (1) an objective functional mobility measure that requires patients to physically perform specific tasks, functional mobility assessment (FMA); (2) a clinician administered tool, Musculoskeletal Tumor Society Scale (MSTS); (3) a patient questionnaire, Toronto Extremity Salvage Scale (TESS); and (4) a health-related quality of life (HRQL) measure, Short Form-36 version 2 (SF-36v.2). This is a prospective multi-site study including 91 patients with lower-extremity bone sarcoma following amputation, limb-sparing surgery, or rotationplasty. One of three physical therapists administered the quality of life measure (SF-36v.2) as well as a battery of functional measures (FMA, MSTS, and TESS). Differences between patients who had amputation, limb-sparing surgery, or rotationplasty were consistently demonstrated by the FMA. Patients with limb sparing femur surgery performed better than those patients with an above the knee amputation but similarly to a small number of rotationplasty patients. Several of the more conventional self-report measures were shown to not have the discriminative capabilities of the FMA in these cohorts. In adolescents with lower-extremity bone sarcoma, it may be advantageous to consider the use of a combination of outcome measures, including the FMA, for objective functional mobility assessment along with the TESS for a subjective measure of disability and the SF-36v.2 for a quality-of-life measure. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc

  18. Impacts of geo-physical factors and human disturbance on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We examined vegetation-disturbance-environment relationships in the Xiaomengyang Section of Xishuangbanna Nature Reserve (XNR) using multivariate analysis to understand the impacts of geo-physical factors and human disturbance on vegetation along the highway corridor. We found that native forests were the best ...

  19. Forest economics, natural disturbances and the new ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Huggett; John M. Pye

    2008-01-01

    The major thesis of this chapter is that the economic analysis of forest disturbances will be enhanced by linking economic and ecologic models. Although we only review a limited number of concepts drawn generally from mathematical and empirical ecology, the overarching theme we present is that ecological models of forest disturbance processes are complex and not...

  20. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  1. Sufficient vitamin K status combined with sufficient vitamin D status is associated with better lower extremity function: a prospective analysis of two knee osteoarthritis cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, M Kyla; Loeser, Richard F; McAlindon, Timothy E; Houston, Denise K; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Booth, Sarah L

    2017-10-17

    Vitamins K and D are important for the function of vitamin K-dependent proteins in joint tissues. It is unclear if these nutrients are mutually important to functional outcomes related to knee osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the association of vitamin K and D sufficiency with lower-extremity function in the Health, Aging Body Composition Knee OA Sub-study (Health ABC) and conducted a replication analysis in an independent cohort, the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). In Health ABC (60% female, 75±3 years) baseline nutrient status was measured using circulating vitamin K and 25(OH)D. Lower-extremity function was assessed using the short physical performance battery (SPPB) and usual 20-meter gait speed. In the OAI (58% female, 61±9 years), baseline nutrient intake was estimated by food frequency questionnaire. Lower-extremity function was assessed using usual 20-meter gait speed and chair stand completion time. Multivariate mixed models were used to evaluate the association of vitamin K and D status and intake with lower-extremity function over 4-5 years. Health ABC participants with sufficient plasma vitamin K (≥1.0 nmol/L) and serum 25(OH)D (≥50 nmol/L) generally had better SPPB scores and faster usual gait speed over follow-up (p≤0.002). In the OAI, sufficient vitamin K and vitamin D intake combined was associated with overall faster usual gait speed and chair stand completion time over follow-up (p≤0.029). Sufficient vitamin K status combined with sufficient vitamin D status was associated with better lower-extremity function in two knee OA cohorts. These findings merit confirmation in vitamin K and D co-supplementation trials. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Ionospheric disturbance dynamo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, M.; Richmond, A.D.

    1980-01-01

    A numerical simulation study of the thermospheric winds produced by auroral heating during magnetic storms, and of their global dynamo effects, establishes the main features of the ionospheric disturbanc dynamo. Driven by auroral heating, a Hadley cell is created with equatorward winds blowing above about 120 km at mid-latitudes. The transport of angular momentum by these winds produces a subrotation of the midlatitude thermosphere, or westward motion with respect to the earth. The westward winds in turn drive equatorward Pedersen currents which accumulate charge toward the equator, resulting in the generation of a poleward electric field, a westward E x B drift, and an eastward current. When realistic local time conductivity variations are simulated, the eastward mid-latitude current is found to close partly via lower latitudes, resulting in an 'anti-Sq' type of current vortex. Both electric field and current at low latitudes thus vary in opposition to their normal quiet-day behavior. This total pattern of distrubance winds, electric fields, and currents is superimposed upon the background quiet-day pattern. When the neutral winds are artificially confined on the nightside, the basic pattern of predominantly westward E x B plasma drifts still prevails on the nightside but no longer extends into the dayside. Considerable observational evidence exists, suggesting that the ionospheric disturbance dynamo has an appreciable influence on storm-time ionospheric electric fields at middle and low latitudes

  3. RHYTHM DISTURBANCES DURING COLONOSCOPY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Jordanov

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of inducing rhythm disturbances of the heart during colonoscopy.Patients and methods used: 80 patients had undergone colonoscopyper formed by two experienced specialists of endoscopy for the period from March to December 2011. The endoscopies were performed without premedication and sedation. Holter was placed on each patient one hour before the endoscopic examination, and the record continued one hour after the manipulation. The blood pressure was measured before, during and after the procedure.Results: During colonoscopy 25 patients (31,25% manifested rhythm disorders. In 15 patients (18,75% sinus tachycardia occurred. In 7 patients (8,75% suptraventricular extra systoles were observed and in 3 patients (3,75% - ventricular extra systoles. No ST-T changes were found. Highest values of the blood pressure were measured before and during the endoscopy, but the values did not exceed 160/105 mmHg. In 10 patients (12,5% a hypotensive reaction was observed, bur the values were not lower than 80/ 50. In 2 patients there was a short bradycardia with a heart frequency 50-55 /min.Conclusions: Our results showed that the rhythm disorders during lower colonoscopy occur in approximately 1/3 of the examined patients, there is an increase or decrease of the blood pressure in some patients, but that doesn’t require physician’s aid and the examination can be carried out safely without monitoring.

  4. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

  5. Sleep disturbances and glucose homeostasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barf, R. Paulien; Scheurink, Anton J.W.

    2011-01-01

    Sleep disturbances, induced by either lifestyle, shift work or sleeping disorders, have become more prevalent in our 24/7 Western society. Sleep disturbances are associated with impaired health including metabolic diseases such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. The question remains whether there is a

  6. Quantitative methods for stochastic high frequency spatio-temporal and non-linear analysis: Assessing health effects of exposure to extreme ambient temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liss, Alexander

    Extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold spells, cause substantial excess mortality and morbidity in the vulnerable elderly population, and cost billions of dollars. The accurate and reliable assessment of adverse effects of extreme weather events on human health is crucial for environmental scientists, economists, and public health officials to ensure proper protection of vulnerable populations and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, the methodology for the analysis of large national databases is yet to be developed. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of extreme weather on the elderly population of the Conterminous US (ConUS) with respect to seasonality in temperature in different climatic regions by utilizing heterogeneous high frequency and spatio-temporal resolution data. To achieve these goals the author: 1) incorporated dissimilar stochastic high frequency big data streams and distinct data types into the integrated data base for use in analytical and decision support frameworks; 2) created an automated climate regionalization system based on remote sensing and machine learning to define climate regions for the Conterminous US; 3) systematically surveyed the current state of the art and identified existing gaps in the scientific knowledge; 4) assessed the dose-response relationship of exposure to temperature extremes on human health in relatively homogeneous climate regions using different statistical models, such as parametric and non-parametric, contemporaneous and asynchronous, applied to the same data; 5) assessed seasonal peak timing and synchronization delay of the exposure and the disease within the framework of contemporaneous high frequency harmonic time series analysis and modification of the effect by the regional climate; 6) modeled using hyperbolic functional form non-linear properties of the effect of exposure to extreme temperature on human health. The proposed climate

  7. Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

    2018-06-01

    A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to

  8. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  10. Voltage stability evaluation facing small disturbances by means of the modal analysis technique; Evaluacion de la estabilidad de voltaje ante disturbios pequenos mediante la tecnica de analisis modal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leon Rodriguez, Daniel

    2000-12-15

    The economic development of the countries has taken implicit a growing industrialization the one which, joined to those every time bigger resident's necessities, it has caused a constant and progressive increment in the electric power demand. However, in the last years the growth of the electric network of these systems has been more and more limited for diverse such factors as the ecology and the economy, as well as for the social and political costs that implies each new construction in the system. With the presence of these restrictions the electric systems in many cases, have been forced to satisfy the increments in the demand making a more exhaustive use of the infrastructure that they have available and the incorporation of only a few new system elements or constructions. These aspects have caused such systems to operate with more limited security margins and that their stability has to be analyzed in a reliable and precise way. Taking into account the previously mentioned aspects, as the electric systems have had the necessity of operating under forced conditions to satisfy the load demand, voltage stability problems have been presented with more frequency causing serious disturbances and in some cases, total blackouts. With these problems, the voltage stability analysis has taken bigger importance in the studies that the electric utilities carry out. This issue has caused that bigger resources are dedicated for the investigation of this phenomenon with the purpose of understanding and developing tools that allow studying it in a more complete and more truthful way. Modal analysis is one of the most recent and popular steady techniques the one that, from its appearance has had a great peak due to the valuable and quick information that provides, besides its implementation easiness and the little effort computational that it requires. In this work is carried out the voltage stability evaluation of a real electric system applying in a combined way the

  11. The analysis on the extreme water shortage event in Hangzhou in 1247 AD and its natural and social backgrounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Haolong

    2017-04-01

    Yangtze River Delta locating in the north subtropics of China, is famous for numerous rivers and lakes. Because of East Asian monsoon rainfall, flood is always the most primary disaster in this area during the past 2000 years. However, there were also several extreme water shortage events in the history. Example in Hangzhou in 1247 AD was such a typical year in the area. In the paper, the severity of this extreme event and the closely tied spatiotemporal variation of drought in Yangtze River Delta was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of documentary records during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, its natural and social backgrounds was discussed. The result s are summarized as follows: 1) Wells, canals and West Lake of Hangzhou dried up in 1247 AD. The water level of canals was about 1.32-2.64 m lower than that in the normal year. The reduction of storage capacity in West Lake was 21 million stere or so. 2) The droughts in Yangtze River Delta was moderate on the whole, but that in the west of Zhejiang Province was severe. The drought in Hangzhou lasted from the 2nd lunar month to the end of this year. 3) The water shortage event was closely related to the quick going north and farther northern location of summer rain belt. The descending sea-level weakening the tide in Qiantang River, can also reduce the supply of water resources. 4) The quick growth of urban population, excessive aquaculture, and ineffective government supervision played an important social role in the process of this event. In the all, this extreme water shortage event was the result of both natural and social factors. This research is very helpful for the futuristic water resource forecast in Yangtze River Delta, and it also affords us lessons on the risk management and heritage conservation that merit attention. Key Words: Hangzhou, 1247 AD, water shortage, canal, West Lake, natural factors, social factors

  12. Asymptotic Performance Analysis of the k-th Best Link Selection over Wireless Fading Channels: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Badarneh, Yazan Hussein

    2018-01-25

    We consider a general selection-diversity (SD) scheme in which the k-th best link is selected from a number of links. We use extreme value theory (EVT) to derive simple closed-form asymptotic expressions for the average throughput, effective throughput and average bit error probability (BEP) for the k-th best link over various channel models that are widely used to characterize fading in wireless communication systems. As an application example, we consider the Weibull fading channel model and verify the accuracy of the derived asymptotic expressions through Monte Carlo simulations.

  13. Comparative analysis of methods for modelling the short-term probability distribution of extreme wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2016-01-01

    We have tested the performance of statistical extrapolation methods in predicting the extreme response of a multi-megawatt wind turbine generator. We have applied the peaks-over-threshold, block maxima and average conditional exceedance rates (ACER) methods for peaks extraction, combined with four...... levels, based on the assumption that the response tail is asymptotically Gumbel distributed. Example analyses were carried out, aimed at comparing the different methods, analysing the statistical uncertainties and identifying the factors, which are critical to the accuracy and reliability...

  14. Asymptotic Performance Analysis of the k-th Best Link Selection over Wireless Fading Channels: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Badarneh, Yazan Hussein; Georghiades, Costas; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2018-01-01

    We consider a general selection-diversity (SD) scheme in which the k-th best link is selected from a number of links. We use extreme value theory (EVT) to derive simple closed-form asymptotic expressions for the average throughput, effective throughput and average bit error probability (BEP) for the k-th best link over various channel models that are widely used to characterize fading in wireless communication systems. As an application example, we consider the Weibull fading channel model and verify the accuracy of the derived asymptotic expressions through Monte Carlo simulations.

  15. Myostatin and carbohydrate disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assyov, Yavor S; Velikova, Tsvetelina V; Kamenov, Zdravko A

    2017-05-01

    Purpose/aim of the study: Myostatin is a myokine that has been shown to inhibit muscle growth and to have potentially deleterious effects on metabolism. The aim of the current study was to compare its circulating serum levels in subjects from the whole spectrum of carbohydrate disturbances leading to diabetes. A total of 159 age-, sex-, and BMI-matched subjects participated in the study - 50 had normal glucose tolerance (NGT), 60 had prediabetes (PreDM), and 49 had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Oral glucose tolerance testing was used to determine glucose tolerance. Serum myostatin was quantified by means of ELISA. Circulating serum myostatin levels were highest in patients with T2D, lower in subjects with prediabetes, and lowest in subjects with normoglycemia (all p Myostatin was shown to be positively associated with fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, hepatic enzymes, uric acid, and FINDRISC questionnaire scores in both sexes. ROC analyses determined circulating myostatin levels to be of value for differentiating subjects with T2D (AUC = 0.72, p = 0.002 in men; AUC = 0.70, p = 0.004 in women) in the study population. After adjustment for potential confounders, in a multiple binary logistic regression model, serum myostatin added further information to traditional risk estimates in distinguishing subjects with T2D. Serum myostatin levels are higher with deterioration of carbohydrate tolerance. Furthermore, circulating myostatin is positively associated with traditional biochemical estimates of poor metabolic health. These data add to evidence of the involvement of this myokine in the pathogenesis of T2D.

  16. Analysis of experimental data: The average shape of extreme wave forces on monopile foundations and the NewForce model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values are co...... to the average shapes. For more nonlinear wave shapes, higher order terms has to be considered in order for the NewForce model to be able to predict the expected shapes.......Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values...... are compared across the sea states. It is found that the force shapes show a clear similarity when grouped after the values of the normalised peak force, F/(ρghR2), normalised depth h/(gT2p) and presented in a normalised time scale t/Ta. For the largest force events, slamming can be seen as a distinct ‘hat...

  17. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  18. RETRAN-3D analysis of the base case and the four extreme cases of the OECD/NRC Peach Bottom 2 Turbine Trip benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barten, Werner; Coddington, Paul; Ferroukhi, Hakim

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the results of RETRAN-3D calculations of the base case and the four extreme cases of phase 3 of the Peach Bottom 2 OECD/NRC Turbine Trip benchmark for coupled thermal-hydraulic and neutronic codes. The PSI-RETRAN-3D model gives good agreement with the measured data of the base case. In addition to the base case, the analysis of the extreme cases provides a further understanding of the reactor behaviour, which is the result of the dynamic coupling of the whole system, i.e., the interaction between the steam line and vessel flows, the pressure, the Doppler, void and control reactivity and power. For the extreme cases without scram the bank of safety relief valves is able to mitigate the effects of the turbine trip for short times. The 3-D nature of the core power distribution has been investigated by analysing the power density of the different thermal-hydraulic channels. In all cases prior to the reactor scram the course of the power is similar in all the channels with differences of the order of a few percent showing that, by and large, the core acts in a coherent manner. At the time of maximum power, the axial power distribution in the different channels is increased at the core centre with respect to the distribution at time zero, by an amount, which is different for the different channels

  19. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

  20. Measurement and Analysis of Extreme Wave and Ice Actions in the Great Lakes for Offshore Wind Platform Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    England, Tony [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering; van Nieuwstadt, Lin [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering; De Roo, Roger [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering; Karr, Dale [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering; Lozenge, David [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering; Meadows, Guy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). College of Engineering

    2016-05-30

    This project, funded by the Department of Energy as DE-EE0005376, successfully measured wind-driven lake ice forces on an offshore structure in Lake Superior through one of the coldest winters in recent history. While offshore regions of the Great Lakes offer promising opportunities for harvesting wind energy, these massive bodies of freshwater also offer extreme and unique challenges. Among these challenges is the need to anticipate forces exerted on offshore structures by lake ice. The parameters of interest include the frequency, extent, and movement of lake ice, parameters that are routinely monitored via satellite, and ice thickness, a parameter that has been monitored at discrete locations over many years and is routinely modeled. Essential relationships for these data to be of use in the design of offshore structures and the primary objective of this project are measurements of maximum forces that lake ice of known thicknesses might exert on an offshore structure.

  1. Spatial-Resolved Measurement and Analysis of Extreme-Ultraviolet Emission Spectra from Laser-Produced Al Plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Shi-Quan; Su Mao-Gen; Sun Dui-Xiong; Min Qi; Dong Chen-Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Extreme ultraviolet emission from laser-produced Al plasma is experimentally and theoretically investigated. Spatial-evolution emission spectra are measured by using the spatio-temporally resolved laser produced plasma technique. Based on the assumptions of a normalized Boltzmann distribution among the excited states and a steady-state collisional-radiative model, we succeed in reproducing the spectra at different detection positions, which are in good agreement with experiments. The decay curves about the electron temperature and electron density, as well as the fractions of individual Al ions and average ionization stage with increasing the detection distance are obtained by comparison with the experimental measurements. These parameters are critical points for deeply understanding the expanding and cooling of laser produced plasmas in vacuum. (paper)

  2. Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Ivan Aguirre-Salado

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.

  3. Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Aurelio

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI = [1.19-1.30]. Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%. Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds

  4. Transcriptomic analysis of a tertiary relict plant, extreme xerophyte Reaumuria soongorica to identify genes related to drought adaptation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reaumuria soongorica is an extreme xerophyte shrub widely distributed in the desert regions including sand dune, Gobi and marginal loess of central Asia which plays a crucial role to sustain and restore fragile desert ecosystems. However, due to the lacking of the genomic sequences, studies on R. soongorica had mainly limited in physiological responses to drought stress. Here, a deep transcriptomic sequencing of R. soongorica will facilitate molecular functional studies and pave the path to understand drought adaptation for a desert plant. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 53,193,660 clean paired-end reads was generated from the Illumina HiSeq™ 2000 platform. By assembly with Trinity, we got 173,700 contigs and 77,647 unigenes with mean length of 677 bp and N50 of 1109 bp. Over 55% (43,054 unigenes were successfully annotated based on sequence similarity against public databases as well as Rfam and Pfam database. Local BLAST and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG maps were used to further exhausting seek for candidate genes related to drought adaptation and a set of 123 putative candidate genes were identified. Moreover, all the C4 photosynthesis genes existed and were active in R. soongorica, which has been regarded as a typical C3 plant. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The assembled unigenes in present work provide abundant genomic information for the functional assignments in an extreme xerophyte R. soongorica, and will help us exploit the genetic basis of how desert plants adapt to drought environment in the near future.

  5. Analysis of Global Sensitivity of Landing Variables on Landing Loads and Extreme Values of the Loads in Carrier-Based Aircrafts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available When a carrier-based aircraft is in arrested landing on deck, the impact loads on landing gears and airframe are closely related to landing states. The distribution and extreme values of the landing loads obtained during life-cycle analysis provide an important basis for buffering parameter design and fatigue design. In this paper, the effect of the multivariate distribution was studied based on military standards and guides. By establishment of a virtual prototype, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST method is applied on sensitivity analysis of landing variables. The results show that sinking speed and rolling angle are the main influencing factors on the landing gear’s course load and vertical load; sinking speed, rolling angle, and yawing angle are the main influencing factors on the landing gear’s lateral load; and sinking speed is the main influencing factor on the barycenter overload. The extreme values of loads show that the typical condition design in the structural strength analysis is safe. The maximum difference value of the vertical load of the main landing gear is 12.0%. This research may provide some reference for structure design of landing gears and compilation of load spectrum for carrier-based aircrafts.

  6. Nutrition security under extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

  7. Smith predictor-based multiple periodic disturbance compensation for long dead-time processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Fang; Li, Han-Xiong; Shen, Ping

    2018-05-01

    Many disturbance rejection methods have been proposed for processes with dead-time, while these existing methods may not work well under multiple periodic disturbances. In this paper, a multiple periodic disturbance rejection is proposed under the Smith predictor configuration for processes with long dead-time. One feedback loop is added to compensate periodic disturbance while retaining the advantage of the Smith predictor. With information of the disturbance spectrum, the added feedback loop can remove multiple periodic disturbances effectively. The robust stability can be easily maintained through the rigorous analysis. Finally, simulation examples demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method for processes with long dead-time.

  8. Rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Bhaskar N

    1997-01-01

    Rhabdomyosarcoma is the most common soft tissue sarcoma accounting for almost 55%. These tumors arise from unsegmented mesoderm or primitive mesenchyma, which have the capacity to differentiate into muscle. Less than 5% occur in the first year of life. Extremity rhabdomyosarcoma are mainly seen in the adolescent years. The most common histologic subtype is the alveolar variant. Other characteristics of extremity rhabdomyosarcoma include a predilection for lymph node metastasis, a high local failure, and a relatively low survival rate. They often present as slow painless masses; however, lesions in the hand and foot often present as painful masses and imaging studies may show invasion of the bone. Initial diagnostic approaches include needle biopsy or incisional biopsy for larger lesions. Excisional biopsy is indicated preferably for lesions less than 2.5 cm. following this in most instances therapy is initiated with multi agent chemotherapy depending upon response, the next modality may be either surgery with intent to cure or radiation therapy. Amputation of an extremity for local control is not considered in most instances. Prognostic factors that have been determined over the years to be of significance by multi variant analysis have included age, tumor size, invasiveness, presence of either nodal or distant metastasis, and complete excision whenever feasible, with supplemental radiation therapy for local control

  9. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

  10. Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaurock, Carl

    2009-01-01

    The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral

  11. Clinical efficacy of preoperative chemotherapy with or without ifosfamide in patients with osteosarcoma of the extremity: meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Wenmei; Lai, Zhennan; Wu, Fenping; Lin, Yanming; Mo, Yanli; Yang, Zhixiong; Wu, Jiayuan

    2015-02-01

    Ifosfamide has been used in neoadjuvant chemotherapy since the mid-1980s. Although several studies have been conducted, the results remain controversial. Randomized controlled trials have an improved balance of confounding factors and reliable results. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis based on randomized controlled trials to gather more evidence of the effect of ifosfamide on neoadjuvant chemotherapy for patients with osteosarcoma of the extremity. An electronic search was conducted via the Internet retrieval system to identify eligible trials until September 2014. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) were calculated to compare the results of ifosfamide and ifosfamide-free therapies. Four trials with a total of 1,378 patients were eligible for our meta-analysis. Overall, compared with neoadjuvant chemotherapy without ifosfamide, the use of ifosfamide had no advantage in terms of histological response to chemotherapy (cHR; OR 1.36; 95 % CI 0.90-2.03, P = 0.140), 5-year event-free survival (EFS; OR 1.16; 95 % CI 0.789-1.75, P = 0.464), and 5-year overall survival (OS; OR 1.06; 95 % CI 0.70-1.59, P = 0.794). However, improvement was noted in the rate of limb salvage (OR 4.06; 95 % CI 2.04-8.10, P chemotherapy with ifosfamide for patients with extremity osteosarcoma might not increase the cHR and exhibited no significant effect on either EFS or OS. However, ifosfamide therapy could significantly increase the rate of limb salvage for osteosarcoma of the extremity, which suggests that the preoperative use of ifosfamide could increase the success rate of limb salvage operation.

  12. Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season

  13. Advances in the analysis and design of concrete structures, metal containments and liner plate for extreme loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, J.D.; Eibl, J.; Curbach, M.; Johnson, T.E.; Daye, M.A.; Riera, J.D.; Nemet, J.; Iyengar, K.T.S.

    1992-01-01

    The material presented in this paper summarizes the progress that has been made in the analysis, design, and testing of concrete structures. The material is summarized in the following documents: Part I: Containment Design Criteria and Loading Combinations; Part II: Reinforced and Prestressed Concrete Behavior; Part III: Concrete Containment Analysis, Design and Related Testing; Part IV: Impact and Impulse Loading and Response Prediction; Part V: Metal Containments and Liner Plate Systems; Part VI: Prestressed Reactor Vessel Design, Testing and Analysis. (orig.)

  14. Analysis of 855 upper extremity fistulas created using a standard protocol: the role of graft extension to achieve functional status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Bassan J; Perez, Enrique R; Tabbara, Marwan

    2013-06-01

    The Fistula First Breakthrough Initiative (FFBI) has been one of the most important national programs to help achieve considerable improvements in the care of patients on chronic hemodialysis. FFBI has helped place guidelines to push practitioners to reduce the use of tunneled central venous catheters and to increase the rate of arteriovenous fistula use in patients requiring chronic hemodialysis access. However, despite current guidelines, no specific protocols exist for the creation and management of autogenous arteriovenous fistulas and outcomes at most centers are below national benchmarks. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of a standard protocol used at our institution for the creation of autogenous upper extremity fistulas for hemodialysis access in achieving early cannulation and early removal of tunneled dialysis catheters. Our review encompasses 855 consecutive autogenous fistulas created over a 10-year period. Our findings suggest that the use of a standard protocol for creation and management of autogenous fistulas can help increase the rate of functional accesses over national benchmarks. Additionally, extension/conversion of malfunctioning fistulas to grafts appears to be an excellent method to expedite removal of a tunneled dialysis catheter with concomitant preservation of a fistula.

  15. Measurement and Analysis of the Extreme Physical Shock Environment Experienced by Crane-Mounted Radiation Detection Systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyd, M [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Erchinger, J [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Marianno, C [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Kallenbach, Gene A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grypp, M [US Dept. of the Navy

    2017-09-01

    Potentially, radiation detectors at ports of entry could be mounted on container gantry crane spreaders to monitor cargo containers entering and leaving the country. These detectors would have to withstand the extreme physical environment experienced by these spreaders during normal operations. Physical shock data from the gable ends of a spreader were recorded during the loading and unloading of a cargo ship with two Lansmont SAVER 9X30 units (with padding) and two PCB Piezotronics model 340A50 accelerometers (hard mounted). Physical shocks in the form of rapid acceleration were observed in all accelerometer units with values ranging from 0.20 g’s to 199.99 g’s. The majority of the shocks for all the Lansmont and PCB accelerometers were below 50 g’s. The Lansmont recorded mean shocks of 21.83 ± 13.62 g’s and 24.78 ± 11.49 g’s while the PCB accelerometers experienced mean shocks of 34.39 ± 25.51 g’s and 41.77 ± 22.68 g’s for the landside and waterside units, respectively. Encased detector units with external padding should be designed to withstand at least 200 g’s of acceleration without padding and typical shocks of 30 g’s with padding for mounting on a spreader.

  16. Probability estimation of rare extreme events in the case of small samples: Technique and examples of analysis of earthquake catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Rodkin, M. V.; Rukavishnikova, T. A.

    2017-11-01

    The most general approach to studying the recurrence law in the area of the rare largest events is associated with the use of limit law theorems of the theory of extreme values. In this paper, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The unknown GPD parameters are typically determined by the method of maximal likelihood (ML). However, the ML estimation is only optimal for the case of fairly large samples (>200-300), whereas in many practical important cases, there are only dozens of large events. It is shown that in the case of a small number of events, the highest accuracy in the case of using the GPD is provided by the method of quantiles (MQs). In order to illustrate the obtained methodical results, we have formed the compiled data sets characterizing the tails of the distributions for typical subduction zones, regions of intracontinental seismicity, and for the zones of midoceanic (MO) ridges. This approach paves the way for designing a new method for seismic risk assessment. Here, instead of the unstable characteristics—the uppermost possible magnitude M max—it is recommended to use the quantiles of the distribution of random maxima for a future time interval. The results of calculating such quantiles are presented.

  17. An Optimization-Based System Model of Disturbance-Generated Forest Biomass Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Guy L.; Coulson, Robert N.; Gan, Jianbang; Tchakerian, Maria D.; Smith, C. Tattersall

    2008-01-01

    Disturbance-generated biomass results from endogenous and exogenous natural and cultural disturbances that affect the health and productivity of forest ecosystems. These disturbances can create large quantities of plant biomass on predictable cycles. A systems analysis model has been developed to quantify aspects of system capacities (harvest,…

  18. Contact Disturbances, Self-Esteem and Life Satisfaction of University Students: A Structural Equation Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagay, Özlem

    2015-01-01

    Problem Statement: A literature analysis revealed that contact disturbances, self-esteem and life satisfaction have been examined in different studies separately. In particular, the researchers observed that the studies conducted on Gestalt contact disturbances are limited in number. In this study, the variables of contact disturbances,…

  19. Disturbed by "the stranger"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øland, Trine; Moldenhawer, Bolette

    2013-01-01

    This article addresses two questions. First: How does a state, in casu the Danish welfare state, based on universalism and social rights as regards its citizens, deal with immigrants and their descendants through education? Second: How does such a state manage to make its differential treatment...... of human beings work legitimately, i.e., what arguments, what interventions and moralisations, are used through the workings of school education? The article carries out an analysis of policies since the 1980s and depicts the construction of ‘the stranger’ parallel to an analysis of the state crafting...... processes that goes on in terms of professional educational interventions in Højmarken School, a school placed in an urban poor area....

  20. Analysis of compensatory mechanisms in the pelvis and lower extremities in patients with pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiaofei; Zhang, Kai; Sun, Xiaojiang; Zhao, Changqing; Li, Hua; Zhao, Jie

    2017-07-01

    The objective was to analyze the compensatory effect of the pelvis and lower extremities on sagittal spinal malalignment in patients with pelvic incidence (PI) and lumbar lordosis (LL) mismatch. A series of parameters including PI, LL, PI-LL, thoracic kyphosis (TK), pelvic tilt (PT), sacral slope (SS), knee flexion angle (KFA), tibial obliquity angle (TOA), femoral obliquity angle (FOA), femur pelvis angle (FPA) and pelvic shift (PS) were measured. Patients with PI-LL mismatch were divided into pelvic retroversion group and pelvic retroposition group based on their PT and PS, and then the parameters were compared within the two groups and with the control group. All variables were significantly different when comparing the pelvic retroversion and retroposition group with the control group except for PI, FOA and PS in the pelvic retroversion group. The pelvic retroposition group had significantly greater value of PI-LL, PI, PT, KFA, FOA and PS and contribution ratio of FOA and PS, and smaller value of LL, TK and FPA and contribution ratio of PT, TOA and FPA compared with the pelvic retroversion group. Patients with lesser PI-LL mismatch rely more on hip extension to increase pelvic retroversion while those with greater PI-LL mismatch tend to add extra femoral obliquity. When compensating for larger PI-LL mismatch, the importance of hip extension is decreased and the effect of the knee and ankle joint becomes more important by providing greater femoral incline and relatively lesser ankle dorsiflexion respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

    2017-05-24

    In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

  2. L-edge sum rule analysis on 3d transition metal sites: from d10 to d0 and towards application to extremely dilute metallo-enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongxin; Friedrich, Stephan; Li, Lei; Mao, Ziliang; Ge, Pinghua; Balasubramanian, Mahalingam; Patil, Daulat S

    2018-03-28

    According to L-edge sum rules, the number of 3d vacancies at a transition metal site is directly proportional to the integrated intensity of the L-edge X-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) for the corresponding metal complex. In this study, the numbers of 3d holes are characterized quantitatively or semi-quantitatively for a series of manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) complexes, including the electron configurations 3d 10 → 3d 0 . In addition, extremely dilute (edge jump region; and (2) by adding an inert tracer to the sample that provides a prominent spectral feature to replace the weak edge jump for intensity normalization. In this publication, we present for the first time: (1) L-edge sum rule analysis for a series of Mn and Ni complexes that include electron configurations from an open shell 3d 0 to a closed shell 3d 10 ; (2) a systematic analysis on the uncertainties, especially on that from the edge jump, which was missing in all previous reports; (3) a clearly-resolved edge jump between pre-L 3 and post-L 2 regions from an extremely dilute sample; (4) an evaluation of an alternative normalization standard for L-edge sum rule analysis. XAS from two copper (Cu) proteins measured using a conventional semiconductor X-ray detector are also repeated as bridges between Ni complexes and dilute Ni enzymes. The differences between measuring 1% Cu enzymes and measuring edge sum rule analysis to virtually any 3d metal complex and any dilute biological samples that contain 3d metals.

  3. A Disturbed Galactic Duo

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Telescope, the world's most advanced visible-light astronomical observatory and VISTA, the world's largest survey telescope. ESO is the European partner of a revolutionary astronomical telescope ALMA, the largest astronomical project in existence. ESO is currently planning a 42-metre European Extremely Large optical/near-infrared Telescope, the E-ELT, which will become "the world's biggest eye on the sky".

  4. Age structure and disturbance legacy of North American forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Pan

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Most forests of the world are recovering from a past disturbance. It is well known that forest disturbances profoundly affect carbon stocks and fluxes in forest ecosystems, yet it has been a great challenge to assess disturbance impacts in estimates of forest carbon budgets. Net sequestration or loss of CO2 by forests after disturbance follows a predictable pattern with forest recovery. Forest age, which is related to time since disturbance, is a useful surrogate variable for analyses of the impact of disturbance on forest carbon. In this study, we compiled the first continental forest age map of North America by combining forest inventory data, historical fire data, optical satellite data and the dataset from NASA's Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS project. A companion map of the standard deviations for age estimates was developed for quantifying uncertainty. We discuss the significance of the disturbance legacy from the past, as represented by current forest age structure in different regions of the US and Canada, by analyzing the causes of disturbances from land management and nature over centuries and at various scales. We also show how such information can be used with inventory data for analyzing carbon management opportunities. By combining geographic information about forest age with estimated C dynamics by forest type, it is possible to conduct a simple but powerful analysis of the net CO2 uptake by forests, and the potential for increasing (or decreasing this rate as a result of direct human intervention in the disturbance/age status. Finally, we describe how the forest age data can be used in large-scale carbon modeling, both for land-based biogeochemistry models and atmosphere-based inversion models, in order to improve the spatial accuracy of carbon cycle simulations.

  5. Nonlinear Disturbance Observer Based Robust Tracking Control of Pneumatic Muscle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssif Mohamed Toum Elobaid

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Presently pneumatic muscles (PMs are used in various applications due to their simple construction, lightweight, and high force-to-weight ratio. However, pneumatic muscles are facing various problems due to their nonlinear characteristics and various uncertainties in real applications. To cope with the uncertainties and strong nonlinearity of a PM model, a nonlinear disturbance observer (NDO is designed to estimate the lumped disturbance. Based on the disturbance observer, the tracking control of PM is studied. Stability analysis based on Lyapunov method with respect to our proposed control law is discussed. The simulation results show the validity, effectiveness, and enhancing robustness of the proposed methods.

  6. Managing Sleep Disturbances in Cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xun Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sleep disturbances, particularly daytime sleepiness and insomnia, are common problems reported by patients suffering from liver cirrhosis. Poor sleep negatively impacts patients’ quality of life and cognitive functions and increases mortality. Although sleep disturbances can be an early sign of hepatic encephalopathy (HE, many patients without HE still complain of poor quality sleep. The pathophysiology of these disturbances is not fully understood but is believed to be linked to impaired hepatic melatonin metabolism. This paper provides an overview for the clinician of common comorbidities contributing to poor sleep in patients with liver disease, mainly restless leg syndrome and obstructive sleep apnea. It discusses nondrug and pharmacologic treatment options in these patients, such as the use of light therapy and histamine (H1 blockers.

  7. Fibre Diffraction Analysis of Skin Offers a Very Early and Extremely Accurate Diagnostic Test for Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Veronica J. [Research School of Chemistry, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; O’Malley Ford, Judith M. [Kedron 7 Day Medical Centre, Kedron, Brisbane, QLD 4005, Australia

    2014-01-01

    Double blind analysis of a batch of thirty skin tissue samples from potential prostate cancer sufferers correctly identified all “control” patients, patients with high and low grade prostate cancers, the presence of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH), perineural invasions, and the one lymphatic invasion. Identification was by analysis of fibre diffraction patterns interpreted using a schema developed from observations in nine previous studies. The method, schema, and specific experiment results are reported in this paper, with some implications then drawn.

  8. Knee Pain and Low Back Pain Additively Disturb Sleep in the General Population: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Nagahama Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimihiko Murase

    Full Text Available Association of knee and low back pain with sleep disturbance is poorly understood. We aimed to clarify the independent and combined effects of these orthopedic symptoms on sleep in a large-scale general population.Cross-sectional data about sleep and knee/low back pain were collected for 9,611 community residents (53±14 years old by a structured questionnaire. Sleep duration less than 6 h/d was defined as short sleep. Sleep quality and the presence of knee and low back pain were evaluated by dichotomous questions. Subjects who complained about knee or low back pains were graded by tertiles of a numerical response scale (NRS score and a Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RDQ score respectively. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to determine the correlates of short sleep duration and poor sleep quality.Frequency of participants who complained of the orthopedic symptoms was as follows; knee pain, 29.0%; low back pain, 42.0% and both knee and low back pain 17.6%. Both knee and low back pain were significantly and independently associated with short sleep duration (knee pain: odds ratio (OR = 1.19, p<0.01; low back pain: OR = 1.13, p = 0.01 and poor sleep quality (knee pain: OR = 1.22, p<0.01; low back pain; OR = 1.57, p<0.01. The group in the highest tertile of the NRS or RDQ score had the highest risk for short sleep duration and poor sleep quality except for the relationship between the highest tertile of the RDQ score and short sleep duration.(the highest tertile of the NRS: OR for short sleep duration = 1.31, p<0.01; OR for poor sleep quality = 1.47, p<0.01; the highest tertile of the RDQ: OR for short sleep duration = 1.11, p = 0.12; OR for poor sleep quality = 1.81, p<0.01 Further, coincident knee and low back pain raised the odds ratios for short sleep duration (either of knee or low back pain: OR = 1.10, p = 0.06; both knee and low back pain: OR = 1.40, p<0.01 and poor sleep quality (either of knee or low back pain: OR

  9. Associations of Sleep Duration and Disturbances With Hypertension in Metropolitan Cities of Delhi, Chennai, and Karachi in South Asia: Cross-Sectional Analysis of the CARRS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivashankar, Roopa; Kondal, Dimple; Ali, Mohammed K; Gupta, Ruby; Pradeepa, Rajendra; Mohan, Viswanathan; Kadir, Muhammad Masood; Narayan, K M Venkat; Tandon, Nikhil; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Peasey, Anne

    2017-09-01

    Sleep duration and disturbances may be risk factors for hypertension. Despite the high burden of hypertension in South Asia, little is known about this relationship in this region. We analyzed population-level cross-sectional data from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) study that recruited representative samples of adults ≥ 20 years from three cities-Delhi, Chennai (India), and Karachi (Pakistan) during 2010-2011. We defined hypertension as self-reported treatment or measured blood pressure (BP) ≥140/90 mm Hg. Data on usual duration of sleep, insomnia, and snoring were collected using "The Sleep Habits Questionnaire" and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) using Epworth Sleepiness Score. Logistic and linear regression were done with hypertension and BP as outcome variables, respectively. Age, gender, education, wealth index, family history, and body mass index (BMI) were included as covariates. We used multiple imputation to account for missing variables. Prevalence of hypertension was 30.1%. The mean (SD) sleep duration was 7.3 (1.2) hours. Insomnia, snoring, and EDS were present in 13.6%, 28.7%, and 4.6%, respectively. Moderate and habitual snoring were associated with increased odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.04 to 1.33] and 1.47 [1.29 to 1.67], respectively), after adjusting for covariates. Rare, occasional, and frequent insomnia were associated with increased hypertension (OR 1.41 [1.12 to 1.77], 1.39 [1.16 to 1.67], and 1.34 [1.09 to 1.65], respectively). Sleep duration and EDS were not associated with hypertension. Self-reported snoring and insomnia were associated with hypertension in South Asia. This relationship needs further exploration through robust longitudinal studies in this region. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Analysis of human acellular nerve allograft reconstruction of 64 injured nerves in the hand and upper extremity: a 3 year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shuang; Liu, Jianghui; Zheng, Canbin; Gu, Liqiang; Zhu, Qingtang; Xiang, Jianping; He, Bo; Zhou, Xiang; Liu, Xiaolin

    2017-08-01

    Human acellular nerve allografts have been increasingly applied in clinical practice. This study was undertaken to investigate the functional outcomes of nerve allograft reconstruction for nerve defects in the upper extremity. A total of 64 patients from 13 hospitals were available for this follow-up study after nerve repair using human acellular nerve allografts. Sensory and motor recovery was examined according to the international standards for motor and sensory nerve recovery. Subgroup analysis and logistic regression analysis were conducted to identify the relationship between the known factors and the outcomes of nerve repair. Mean follow-up time was 355 ± 158 (35-819) days; mean age was 35 ± 11 (14-68) years; average nerve gap length was 27 ± 13 (10-60) mm; no signs of infection, tissue rejection or extrusion were observed among the patients; 48/64 (75%) repaired nerves experienced meaningful recovery. Univariate analysis showed that site and gap length significantly influenced prognosis after nerve repair using nerve grafts. Delay had a marginally significant relationship with the outcome. A multivariate logistic regression model revealed that gap length was an independent predictor of nerve repair using human acellular nerve allografts. The results indicated that the human acellular nerve allograft facilitated safe and effective nerve reconstruction for nerve gaps 10-60 mm in length in the hand and upper extremity. Factors such as site and gap length had a statistically significant influence on the outcomes of nerve allograft reconstruction. Gap length was an independent predictor of nerve repair using human acellular nerve allografts. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. The Disturbing Student and the Judicial Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragle, John D.; Paine, Gage E.

    2009-01-01

    The Assessment-Intervention of Student Problems (AISP) model is a useful tool for preparing student affairs professionals to assess the problems of disturbed, disturbing, or disturbed/disturbing students and to make appropriate referrals. It is particularly useful because it emphasizes the necessity of developing an integrated system for this…

  12. Traditional Chinese and western medicine for the prevention of deep venous thrombosis after lower extremity orthopedic surgery: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shibai; Song, Yi; Chen, Xi; Qian, Wenwei

    2018-04-10

    Chinese herbal medicine has traditionally been considered to promote blood circulation to remove obstruction in the channels and clear pathogenic heat to drain dampness effects. We conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate its benefits for the prevention of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) after lower extremity orthopedic surgery. Relevant, published studies were identified using the following keywords: lower extremity orthopedic surgery, arthroplasty, joint replacement, fracture, traditional Chinese and western medicine, Chinese herbal medicine, deep venous thrombosis (DVT), and Venous thromboembolism (VTE). The following databases were used to identify the literature consisting of RCTs with a date of search of 31 May 2017: PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of knowledge, the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure Database, the Chongqing VIP Database, the Chinese Biomedical Database, and the Wanfang Database (including three English and four Chinese databases). All relevant data were collected from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The outcome variables were the incidence rate of DVT, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), prothrombin time (PT), and D-dimer; subcutaneous hematoma; and other reported outcomes. RevMan5.2. software was adopted for the meta-analysis. A total of 20 published studies (1862 cases) met the inclusion criteria. The experimental group, 910 patients (48.87%), received the Chinese herbal medicine or traditional Chinese and western medicine for prevention of DVT; the control group, 952 patients (51.13%), received the standard western treatment. The meta-analysis showed that traditional Chinese and western medicine therapy reduced the incidence rates of DVT significantly when compared with controls (risk ratio [RR] = 0.40; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.54; P < 0.00001), and the D-dimer was lower in the experimental group (P = 0.01). Besides, the incidence rate of subcutaneous hematoma was lower in the experimental group (P < 0

  13. Carbon redistribution by erosion processes in an intensively disturbed catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boix-Fayos, Carolina; Martínez-Mena, María; Pérez Cutillas, Pedro; de Vente, Joris; Barberá, Gonzalo G.; Mosch, Wouter; Navarro Cano, Jose Antonio; Gaspar, Leticia; Navas, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Understanding how organic carbon moves with sediments along the fluvial system is crucial to close catchment scale carbon budgets. Especially challenging is the analysis of organic carbon dynamics during fluvial transport in heterogeneous, fragile and disturbed environments with ephemeral and intense hydrological pulses, typical of Mediterranean conditions. This paper explores the catchment scale organic carbon redistribution by lateral flows in extreme Mediterranean environmental conditions from a geomorphological perspective. The study area is a catchment (Cárcavo) in SE Spain with a semiarid climate, erodible lithologies, shallow soils, and highly disturbed by agricultural terraces, land levelling, reforestations and construction of check-dams. To increase understanding of erosion induced catchment scale organic carbon redistribution, we studied the subcatchments of 8 check-dams distributed along the catchment main channel in detail. We determined 137Cs, physicochemical characteristics and organic carbon pools of soils and sediments deposited behind each check-dam, performed spatial analysis of properties of the catchment and buffer areas around check-dams, and carried out geomorphological analysis of the slope-channel connections. Soils showed very low Total Organic Carbon (TOC) values oscillating between 15.2 and 4.4 g Kg-1 for forest and agricultural soils, respectively. Sediments mobilized by erosion were poor in TOC compared to the eroded (forest) soils (6.6±0.7 g Kg-1), and the redistribution of organic carbon through the catchment, especially of the Mineral Associated Organic Carbon (MAC) pool, showed the same pattern as clay particles and 137Cs. The TOC erosion rates (0.031±0.03 Mg ha-1 y-1) were comparable to others reported for subhumid Mediterranean catchments and to those modelled worldwide for pasture land. Those lateral fluxes were equivalent to 10.4 % of the TOC stock from the topsoil at the moment of the check-dam construction and

  14. Análisis preliminar del Límite de Potencia Eólica para grandes perturbaciones utilizando aerogeneradores de velocidad fija; Partial analysis of wind power limit for large disturbance using fixed speed wind turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Santos Fuentefria

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available El Límite de Potencia Eólica (LPE es la cantidad de potencia eólica que permite un sistema sin perder la estabilidad y depende principalmente de las características de los generadores eólicos y de las características del sistema en términos de debilidad. Conocer el comportamiento del sistema en régimen transitorio es sumamente importante; entre las condiciones que generan mayores problemas se encuentran el cortocircuito en las líneas de mayor transferencia de potenciay la salida de algún generador del sistema. El LPE cambia para cada condición y conocer el LPE considerando estas condiciones permite aprovechar al máximo la energía del viento. En el presente trabajo se analiza el comportamiento de generadores eólicos de velocidad fija para diversas condiciones transitorias de la red, utilizándose el sistema de prueba de 14 nodos de la IEEE para verificar la metodología en uso para el análisis a través de simulaciones implementadas en el software libre PSAT.  The amount of wind power that allow an electric network without losing his stability as known as wind power limit. The wind power limit fundamentally depends on the wind turbine technology and the weakness level of the system. To know the system behaviors in dynamic performance having into account the worst disturbance is a very important matter, a short circuit in one of the most power transference line or the loss of a large generation unit was a large disturbance that can affect system stability. The wind power limit may change with the nature of the disturbance. To know the wind power limit considering this conditions allow use the wind at maximum level. In the present paper the behavior of fixed speed wind turbine for different fault types is analyzed, at those conditions, the wind power is increasing until the system become voltage unstable. For the analysis the IEEE 14 Bus Test Case is used. The Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT package is used for the simulation.

  15. Análisis preliminar del Límite de Potencia Eólica para grandes perturbaciones utilizando aerogeneradores de velocidad fija; Partial analysis of wind power limit for large disturbance using fixed speed wind turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Santos Fuentefria

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available El Límite de Potencia Eólica (LPE es la cantidad de potencia eólica que permite un sistema sin perder la estabilidad y depende principalmente de las características de los generadores eólicos y de las características del sistema en términos de debilidad. Conocer el comportamiento del sistema en régimen transitorio es sumamente importante; entre las condiciones que generan mayores problemas se encuentran el cortocircuito en las líneas de mayor transferencia de potenciay la salida de algún generador del sistema. El LPE cambia para cada condición y conocer el LPE considerando estas condiciones permite aprovechar al máximo la energía del viento. En el presente trabajo se analiza el comportamiento de generadores eólicos de velocidad fija para diversas condiciones transitorias de la red, utilizándose el sistema de prueba de 14 nodos de la IEEE para verificar la metodología en uso para el análisis a través de simulaciones implementadas en el software libre PSAT The amount of wind power that allow an electric network without losing his stability as known as wind power limit. The wind power limit fundamentally depends on the wind turbine technology and the weakness level of the system. To know the system behaviors in dynamic performance having into account the worst disturbance is a very important matter, a short circuit in one of the most power transference line or the loss of a large generation unit was a large disturbance that can affect system stability. The wind power limit may change with the nature of the disturbance. To know the wind power limit considering this conditions allow use the wind at maximum level. In the present paper the behavior of fixed speed wind turbine for different fault types is analyzed, at those conditions, the wind power is increasing until the system become voltage unstable. For the analysis the IEEE 14 Bus Test Case is used. The Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT package is used for the simulation.

  16. Analysis of the wake field effects in the PEP-II storage rings with extremely high currents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novokhatski, A., E-mail: novo@slac.stanford.edu; Seeman, J.; Sullivan, M.

    2014-01-21

    We present the history and analysis of different wake field effects throughout the operational life of the PEP-II SLAC B-factory. Although the impedance of the high and low energy rings is small, the intense high-current beams generated a lot of power. The effects from these wake fields are: heating and damage of vacuum beam chamber elements like RF seals, vacuum valves, shielded bellows, BPM buttons and ceramic tiles; vacuum spikes, vacuum instabilities and high detector background; and beam longitudinal and transverse instabilities. We also discuss the methods used to eliminate these effects. Results of this analysis and the PEP-II experience may be very useful in the design of new storage rings and light sources.

  17. Spatial reliability analysis of a wind turbine blade cross section subjected to multi-axial extreme loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Bitsche, Robert; Blasques, José Pedro Albergaria Amaral

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for structural reliability analysis of wind turbine blades. The study introduces several novel elements by taking into account loading direction using a multiaxial probabilistic load model, considering random material strength, spatial correlation between material...... properties, progressive material failure, and system reliability effects. An example analysis of reliability against material failure is demonstrated for a blade cross section. Based on the study we discuss the implications of using a system reliability approach, the effect of spatial correlation length......, type of material degradation algorithm, and reliability methods on the system failure probability, as well as the main factors that have an influence on the reliability. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  18. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    14-7 ii Abstract The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor’easters...Products and Services, excluding any kind of high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Tropical and extratropical storms were treated as a single...joint probability analysis and high-fidelity modeling of tropical and extratropical storms

  19. AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W. K.; Susskind, J.; Rosenberg, R.

    2011-01-01

    A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

  20. Climate change and disturbance interactions: Workshop on climate change and disturbance interactions in western North America, Tucson, Ariz., 12-15 February 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Don; Allen, Craig D.

    2007-01-01

    Warming temperatures across western North America, coupled with increased drought, are expected to exacerbate disturbance regimes, particularly wildfires, insect outbreaks, and invasions of exotic species. Many ecologists and resource managers expect ecosystems to change more rapidly from disturbance effects than from the effects of a changing climate by itself. A particular challenge is to understand the interactions among disturbance regimes; for example, how will massive outbreaks of bark beetles, which kill drought-stressed trees by feeding on cambial tissues, increase the potential for large severe wildfires in a warming climate?Researchers in climatology, ecosystem science, fire and insect ecology, and landscape modeling from across western North America convened in Tucson, Ariz., for a 2 and a half day intensive workshop to identify new research directions in climate change and disturbance ecology. Four work groups focused on different aspects of the response of disturbance regimes to climate change: (1) extreme events and climatic variability (2) the effects of changing disturbance regimes on ecosystems, (3) disturbance interactions and cumulative effects, and (4) developing new landscape disturbance models. The workshop was structured with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision support method for achieving consensus from diverse groups of experts without sacrificing individual contributions.

  1. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  2. Determining the optimal system-specific cut-off frequencies for filtering in-vitro upper extremity impact force and acceleration data by residual analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, Timothy A; Dunning, Cynthia E; Andrews, David M

    2011-10-13

    The fundamental nature of impact testing requires a cautious approach to signal processing, to minimize noise while preserving important signal information. However, few recommendations exist regarding the most suitable filter frequency cut-offs to achieve these goals. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation is twofold: to illustrate how residual analysis can be utilized to quantify optimal system-specific filter cut-off frequencies for force, moment, and acceleration data resulting from in-vitro upper extremity impacts, and to show how optimal cut-off frequencies can vary based on impact condition intensity. Eight human cadaver radii specimens were impacted with a pneumatic impact testing device at impact energies that increased from 20J, in 10J increments, until fracture occurred. The optimal filter cut-off frequency for pre-fracture and fracture trials was determined with a residual analysis performed on all force and acceleration waveforms. Force and acceleration data were filtered with a dual pass, 4th order Butterworth filter at each of 14 different cut-off values ranging from 60Hz to 1500Hz. Mean (SD) pre-fracture and fracture optimal cut-off frequencies for the force variables were 605.8 (82.7)Hz and 513.9 (79.5)Hz, respectively. Differences in the optimal cut-off frequency were also found between signals (e.g. Fx (medial-lateral), Fy (superior-inferior), Fz (anterior-posterior)) within the same test. These optimal cut-off frequencies do not universally agree with the recommendations of filtering all upper extremity impact data using a cut-off frequency of 600Hz. This highlights the importance of quantifying the filter frequency cut-offs specific to the instrumentation and experimental set-up. Improper digital filtering may lead to erroneous results and a lack of standardized approaches makes it difficult to compare findings of in-vitro dynamic testing between laboratories. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

  4. Gastrointestinal disturbances in marathon runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddoch, C; Trinick, T

    1988-06-01

    The purpose of this survey was to investigate the prevalence of running-induced gastrointestinal (GI) disturbances in marathon runners. A questionnaire was completed by 471 of the estimated 1,750 competitors in the 1986 Belfast City Marathon. Eighty-three per cent of respondents indicated that they occasionally or frequently suffered one or more GI disturbances during or immediately after running. The urge to have a bowel movement (53%) and diarrhoea (38%) were the most common symptoms, especially among female runners (74% and 68% respectively). Upper GI tract symptoms were experienced more by women than men (p less than 0.05) and more by younger runners than older runners (p less than 0.01). Women also suffered more lower GI tract symptoms than men (p less than 0.05) with younger runners showing a similar trend. Both upper and lower tract symptoms were more common during a "hard" run than an "easy" run (p less than 0.01) and were equally as common both during and after running. Of those runners who suffered GI disturbances, 72% thought that running was the cause and 29% believed their performance to be adversely affected. There was no consensus among sufferers as to the causes of symptoms and a wide variety of "remedies" were suggested. GI disturbances are common amongst long-distance runners and their aetiology is unknown. Medical practitioners should be aware of this when dealing with patients who run.

  5. Analysis of antibody aggregate content at extremely high concentrations using sedimentation velocity with a novel interference optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Kristian; Krause, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies represent the most important group of protein-based biopharmaceuticals. During formulation, manufacturing, or storage, antibodies may suffer post-translational modifications altering their physical and chemical properties. Such induced conformational changes may lead to the formation of aggregates, which can not only reduce their efficiency but also be immunogenic. Therefore, it is essential to monitor the amount of size variants to ensure consistency and quality of pharmaceutical antibodies. In many cases, antibodies are formulated at very high concentrations > 50 g/L, mostly along with high amounts of sugar-based excipients. As a consequence, all routine aggregation analysis methods, such as size-exclusion chromatography, cannot monitor the size distribution at those original conditions, but only after dilution and usually under completely different solvent conditions. In contrast, sedimentation velocity (SV) allows to analyze samples directly in the product formulation, both with limited sample-matrix interactions and minimal dilution. One prerequisite for the analysis of highly concentrated samples is the detection of steep concentration gradients with sufficient resolution: Commercially available ultracentrifuges are not able to resolve such steep interference profiles. With the development of our Advanced Interference Detection Array (AIDA), it has become possible to register interferograms of solutions as highly concentrated as 150 g/L. The other major difficulty encountered at high protein concentrations is the pronounced non-ideal sedimentation behavior resulting from repulsive intermolecular interactions, for which a comprehensive theoretical modelling has not yet been achieved. Here, we report the first SV analysis of highly concentrated antibodies up to 147 g/L employing the unique AIDA ultracentrifuge. By developing a consistent experimental design and data fit approach, we were able to provide a reliable estimation of the minimum

  6. Micro tectonic milonitas analysis in the extreme south of the Sarandi del Yi shear zone: Kinematics and deformation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyhantçabal, P; Suarez, I; Seluchi, N; Martinez, X.

    2010-01-01

    The Shear Zone divides Sarandi del Yi Craton River Plate in Piedra Alta and Nico Perez land . The southern end of this zone extends to north - south from the vicinity of the town of Minas to Punta Solis. The predominant lithology of the study area consists of a granitic mylonite with abundant muscovite and biotite. Structural data of foliation , stretching lineation and kinematic indicators were surveyed .Petrographic analysis shows that quartz is presented as ribbons polycrystalline product subgrain rotation recrystallization and grain boundary migration . Feldspar porphyroclasts are partially recrystallized in developing type structures c ore and mantle . Kinematic indicators such as sigma porphyroclasts , mica fish and oblique foliation defined consistently sinistral sense . The presence of stable and mirmequitas in the plane of biotite foliation along the microstructures described in quartz and feldspar , can be inferred temperature conditions between 450 ° C and 550° C during deformation

  7. Narrative psychological content analysis as a tool for psychological status monitoring of crews in isolated, confined and extreme settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehmann, B.; Balázs, L.; Fülöp, É.; Hargitai, R.; Kabai, P.; Péley, B.; Pólya, T.; Vargha, A.; László, J.

    2011-05-01

    This paper is about a pilot application of narrative psychological content analysis in the psychological status monitoring of Crew 71 of a space analog simulation environment, the Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS). Both the method and its theoretical framework, Scientific Narrative Psychology, are original developments by Hungarian psychologists [5] (László, 2008). The software was NooJ, a multilingual linguistic development environment [11] (Silberztein, 2008). Three measures were conceptualized and assessed: emotional status, team spirit and subjective physical comfort. The results showed the patterns of these three measures on a daily basis at group level, and allowed for detecting individual differences as well. The method is adaptable to languages involved in space psychology, e.g. Russian, French and German in addition to English.

  8. Surface disturbances: their role in accelerating desertification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belnap, Jayne

    1995-01-01

    Maintaining soil stability and normal water and nutrient cycles in desert systems is critical to avoiding desertification. These particular ecosystem processes are threatened by trampling of livestock and people, and by off-road vehicle use. Soil compaction and disruption of cryptobiotic soil surfaces (composed of cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses) can result in decreased water availability to vascular plants through decreased water infiltration and increased albedo with possible decreased precipitation. Surface disturbance may also cause accelerated soil loss through wind and water erosion and decreased diversity and abundance of soil biota. In addition, nutrient cycles can be altered through lowered nitrogen and carbon inputs and slowed decomposition of soil organic matter, resulting in lower nutrient levels in associated vascular plants. Some cold desert systems may be especially susceptible to these disruptions due to the paucity of surface-rooting vascular plants for soil stabilization, fewer nitrogen-fixing higher plants, and lower soil temperatures, which slow nutrient cycles. Desert soils may recover slowly from surface disturbances, resulting in increased vulnerability to desertification. Recovery from compaction and decreased soil stability is estimated to take several hundred years. Re-establishment rates for soil bacterial and fungal populations are not known. The nitrogen fixation capability of soil requires at least 50 years to recover. Recovery of crusts can be hampered by large amounts of moving sediment, and re-establishment can be extremely difficult in some areas. Given the sensitivity of these resources and slow recovery times, desertification threatens million of hectares of semiarid lands in the United States.

  9. Improving estimates of forest disturbance by combining observations from Landsat time series with U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd A. Schroeder; Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino; Warren B. Cohen; Chengquan Huang; Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang

    2014-01-01

    With earth's surface temperature and human population both on the rise a new emphasis has been placed on monitoring changes to forested ecosystems the world over. In the United States the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program monitors the forested land base with field data collected over a permanent network of sample plots. Although these...

  10. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  11. Associations Between Measures of Balance and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength/Power in Healthy Individuals Across the Lifespan: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muehlbauer, Thomas; Gollhofer, Albert; Granacher, Urs

    2015-12-01

    It has frequently been reported that balance and lower-extremity muscle strength/power are associated with sports-related and everyday activities. Knowledge about the relationship between balance, strength, and power are important for the identification of at-risk individuals because deficits in these neuromuscular components are associated with an increased risk of sustaining injuries and falls. In addition, this knowledge is of high relevance for the development of specifically tailored health and skill-related exercise programs. The objectives of this systematic literature review and meta-analysis were to characterize and, if possible, quantify associations between variables of balance and lower-extremity muscle strength/power in healthy individuals across the lifespan. A computerized systematic literature search was performed in the electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science, and SPORTDiscus up to March 2015 to capture all relevant articles. A systematic approach was used to evaluate the 996 articles identified for initial review. Studies were included only if they investigated healthy individuals aged ≥6 years and tested at least one measure of static steady-state balance (e.g., center of pressure [CoP] displacement during one-legged stance), dynamic steady-state balance (e.g., gait speed), proactive balance (e.g., distance in the functional-reach-test), or reactive balance (e.g., CoP displacement during perturbed one-legged stance), and one measure of maximal strength (e.g., maximum voluntary contraction), explosive force (e.g., rate of force development), or muscle power (e.g., jump height). In total, 37 studies met the inclusionary criteria for review. The included studies were coded for the following criteria: age (i.e., children: 6-12 years, adolescents: 13-18 years, young adults: 19-44 years, middle-aged adults: 45-64 years, old adults: ≥65 years), sex (i.e., female, male), and test modality/outcome (i.e., test for the assessment of balance

  12. Whole transcriptome analysis of the fasting and fed Burmese python heart: insights into extreme physiological cardiac adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wall, Christopher E; Cozza, Steven; Riquelme, Cecilia A; McCombie, W Richard; Heimiller, Joseph K; Marr, Thomas G; Leinwand, Leslie A

    2011-01-01

    The infrequently feeding Burmese python (Python molurus) experiences significant and rapid postprandial cardiac hypertrophy followed by regression as digestion is completed. To begin to explore the molecular mechanisms of this response, we have sequenced and assembled the fasted and postfed Burmese python heart transcriptomes with Illumina technology using the chicken (Gallus gallus) genome as a reference. In addition, we have used RNA-seq analysis to identify differences in the expression of biological processes and signaling pathways between fasted, 1 day postfed (DPF), and 3 DPF hearts. Out of a combined transcriptome of ∼2,800 mRNAs, 464 genes were differentially expressed. Genes showing differential expression at 1 DPF compared with fasted were enriched for biological processes involved in metabolism and energetics, while genes showing differential expression at 3 DPF compared with fasted were enriched for processes involved in biogenesis, structural remodeling, and organization. Moreover, we present evidence for the activation of physiological and not pathological signaling pathways in this rapid, novel model of cardiac growth in pythons. Together, our data provide the first comprehensive gene expression profile for a reptile heart.

  13. Comparative analysis of two hybrid energy storage systems used in a two front wheel driven electric vehicle during extreme start-up and regenerative braking operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itani, Khaled; De Bernardinis, Alexandre; Khatir, Zoubir; Jammal, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Comparison of HESS Ultracapacitor and Flywheel for maximizing EV energy recovery. • Energy recovery performed for extreme two front-wheel driven EV brake conditions. • Regenerative EV braking control strategies and constraints for HESS. • Comparative cost effectiveness for two HESS solutions Ultracapacitors and Flywheel. - Abstract: This paper presents the comparative study of two hybrid energy storage systems (HESS) of a two front wheel driven electric vehicle. The primary energy source of the HESS is a Li-Ion battery, whereas the secondary energy source is either an ultracapacitor (UC) or a flywheel energy system (FES). The main role of the secondary source is to deliver/recover energy during high peak power demand, but also to increase battery lifetime, considered among the most expensive items in the electric vehicle. As a first step, a techno-economic comparative study, supported by strong literature research, is performed between the UC and the FES. The design and sizing of each element will be presented. The comparison criteria and specifications are also described. The adopted approach in this paper is based on an academic non-oriented point of view. In a second step, each of the HESS will be integrated in a more global Simulink model which includes the vehicle model, the traction control system (TCS), the regenerative braking system and the vehicle actuators. Simulation tests are performed for an extreme braking and vehicle starting-up operations. Tests are realized on two different surface road types and conditions (high and low friction roads) and for different initial system states. In order to show the most appropriate storage system regarding compactness, weight and battery constraints minimization, deep comparative analysis is provided.

  14. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Versus 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Preoperative Treatment of Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard, Patrick, E-mail: patrjr@uw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Phillips, Mark; Smith, Wade [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Davidson, Darin [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Kim, Edward; Kane, Gabrielle [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: Create a cost-effectiveness model comparing preoperative intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) for extremity soft tissue sarcomas. Methods and Materials: Input parameters included 5-year local recurrence rates, rates of acute wound adverse events, and chronic toxicities (edema, fracture, joint stiffness, and fibrosis). Health-state utilities were used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Overall treatment costs per QALY or incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. Roll-back analysis was performed using average costs and utilities to determine the baseline preferred radiation technique. One-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed for input parameters with the largest impact on the ICER. Results: Overall treatment costs were $17,515.58 for 3DCRT compared with $22,920.51 for IMRT. The effectiveness was higher for IMRT (3.68 QALYs) than for 3DCRT (3.35 QALYs). The baseline ICER for IMRT was $16,842.75/QALY, making it the preferable treatment. The ICER was most sensitive to the probability of local recurrence, upfront radiation costs, local recurrence costs, certain utilities (no toxicity/no recurrence, grade 1 toxicity/no local recurrence, grade 4 toxicity/no local recurrence), and life expectancy. Dominance patterns emerged when the cost of 3DCRT exceeded $15,532.05 (IMRT dominates) or the life expectancy was under 1.68 years (3DCRT dominates). Furthermore, preference patterns changed based on the rate of local recurrence (threshold: 13%). The PSA results demonstrated that IMRT was the preferred cost-effective technique for 64% of trials compared with 36% for 3DCRT. Conclusions: Based on our model, IMRT is the preferred technique by lowering rates of local recurrence, severe toxicities, and improving QALYs. From a third-party payer perspective, IMRT should be a supported approach for extremity soft tissue sarcomas.

  15. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Versus 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Preoperative Treatment of Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard, Patrick; Phillips, Mark; Smith, Wade; Davidson, Darin; Kim, Edward; Kane, Gabrielle

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Create a cost-effectiveness model comparing preoperative intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) for extremity soft tissue sarcomas. Methods and Materials: Input parameters included 5-year local recurrence rates, rates of acute wound adverse events, and chronic toxicities (edema, fracture, joint stiffness, and fibrosis). Health-state utilities were used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Overall treatment costs per QALY or incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. Roll-back analysis was performed using average costs and utilities to determine the baseline preferred radiation technique. One-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed for input parameters with the largest impact on the ICER. Results: Overall treatment costs were $17,515.58 for 3DCRT compared with $22,920.51 for IMRT. The effectiveness was higher for IMRT (3.68 QALYs) than for 3DCRT (3.35 QALYs). The baseline ICER for IMRT was $16,842.75/QALY, making it the preferable treatment. The ICER was most sensitive to the probability of local recurrence, upfront radiation costs, local recurrence costs, certain utilities (no toxicity/no recurrence, grade 1 toxicity/no local recurrence, grade 4 toxicity/no local recurrence), and life expectancy. Dominance patterns emerged when the cost of 3DCRT exceeded $15,532.05 (IMRT dominates) or the life expectancy was under 1.68 years (3DCRT dominates). Furthermore, preference patterns changed based on the rate of local recurrence (threshold: 13%). The PSA results demonstrated that IMRT was the preferred cost-effective technique for 64% of trials compared with 36% for 3DCRT. Conclusions: Based on our model, IMRT is the preferred technique by lowering rates of local recurrence, severe toxicities, and improving QALYs. From a third-party payer perspective, IMRT should be a supported approach for extremity soft tissue sarcomas.

  16. Evaluation of Version-7 TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis Product during the Beijing Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event of 21 July 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Huang

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The latest Version-7 (V7 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA products were released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA in December of 2012. Their performance on different climatology, locations, and precipitation types is of great interest to the satellite-based precipitation community. This paper presents a study of TMPA precipitation products (3B42RT and 3B42V7 for an extreme precipitation event in Beijing and its adjacent regions (from 00:00 UTC 21 July 2012 to 00:00 UTC 22 July 2012. Measurements from a dense rain gauge network were used as the ground truth to evaluate the latest TMPA products. Results are summarized as follows. Compared to rain gauge measurements, both 3B42RT and 3B42V7 generally captured the rainfall spatial and temporal pattern, having a moderate spatial correlation coefficient (CC, 0.6 and high CC values (0.88 over the broader Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin (HBT regions, but the rainfall peak is 6 h ahead of gauge observations. Overall, 3B42RT showed higher estimation than 3B42V7 over both HBT and Beijing. At the storm center, both 3B42RT and 3B42V7 presented a relatively large deviation from the temporal variation of rainfall and underestimated the storm by 29.02% and 36.07%, respectively. The current study suggests that the latest TMPA products still have limitations in terms of resolution and accuracy, especially for this type of extreme event within a latitude area on the edge of coverage of TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager. Therefore, TMPA users should be cautious when 3B42RT and 3B42V7 are used to model, monitor, and forecast both flooding hazards in the Beijing urban area and landslides in the mountainous west and north of Beijing.

  17. Identification of gaps in the current knowledge on pulmonary hypertension in extremely preterm infants: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjaans, Sanne; Zwart, Elvira A H; Ploegstra, Mark-Jan; Bos, Arend F; Kooi, Elisabeth M W; Hillege, Hans L; Berger, Rolf M F

    2018-01-17

    Pulmonary hypertension complicates the clinical course of extremely preterm infants and is associated with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). However, prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of pulmonary hypertension in these infants are insufficiently known. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to provide an up-to-date overview of available data on prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of pulmonary hypertension and to identify current knowledge gaps. Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched in July 2017. Two authors reviewed titles/abstracts and full-texts. Eligible studies reported prevalence, patient characteristics or mortality of infants with/without pulmonary hypertension. Studies were excluded if they did not include extremely preterm infants. Only similar study samples (selected infants with BPD or infants both with/without BPD) were compared in the meta-analyses. Of 1829 unique articles identified, 25 were eligible for inclusion. Pulmonary hypertension was observed in infants with BPD (20%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14, 25), but also in those without BPD (2%, 95% CI 0, 8). Infants with severe BPD were most at risk of pulmonary hypertension (risk ratio [RR] 2.7, 95% CI 1.7, 4.2). Infants with pulmonary hypertension were more at risk of mortality (RR 4.7, 95% CI 2.7, 8.3). Pulmonary hypertension occurs in particularly in infants with severe BPD, and increases risk of mortality. Due to selected study populations, heterogeneous pulmonary hypertension-definitions and poorly reported timing of pulmonary hypertension assessments, however, data available in current reports are insufficient to allow accurate assessment of true prevalence, risk factors, and time-related outcome. Prospective studies, with standardised methodology and follow-up are needed to determine these factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Biomarker responses of mussels exposed to earthquake disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandurvelan, Rathishri; Marsden, Islay D.; Glover, Chris N.; Gaw, Sally

    2016-12-01

    The green-lipped mussel, Perna canaliculus is recognised as a bioindicator of coastal contamination in New Zealand (NZ). Mussels (shell length 60-80 mm) were collected from three intertidal areas of Canterbury in the South Island of NZ prior to extreme earthquake disturbances on 22nd February 2011, and 9 months later in October 2011. Trace elements, including arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), were measured in the gills, digestive gland, foot and mantle. Metal levels in tissues were site specific, and mostly unaffected by earthquake disturbances. Physiological biomarkers were negatively affected by earthquake disturbances and mussels from the Port of Lyttelton had higher negative scope for growth post-earthquake. Metallothionein-like protein in the digestive gland correlated with metal content of tissues, as did catalase activity in the gill and lipid peroxidation values for the digestive gland. This research demonstrates that physiological and other biomarkers are effective at detecting the effects of multiple stressors following seismic disturbances.

  19. Disturbances in small bowel motility.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Quigley, E M

    2012-02-03

    Recently, the small intestine has become the focus of investigation as a potential site of dysmotility in the irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). A number of motor abnormalities have been defined in some studies, and include \\'clustered\\' contractions, exaggerated post-prandial motor response and disturbances in intestinal transit. The significance of these findings remains unclear. The interpretation of available studies is complicated by differences in subject selection, the direct influence of certain symptoms, such as diarrhoea and constipation, and the interference of compounding factors, such as stress and psychopathology. Dysmotility could also reflect autonomic dysfunction, disturbed CNS control and the response to heightened visceral sensation or central perception. While motor abnormalities may not explain all symptoms in IBS, sensorimotor interactions may be important in symptom pathogenesis and deserve further study.

  20. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  1. Mechanical disturbances in superconducting magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Makoto

    1990-03-01

    The stress distribution in a small epoxy-impregnated Nb 3 Sn coil was calculated by the finite element method. Mechanical disturbances due to the electromagnetic force in the magnet are discussed. The coil stability in relation with the stress distribution is also discussed by using the experimental results. To evaluate such stresses, a calculation model was investigated. It was found that the model, which removed the internal bore element in the model magnet, gave a reasonable condition to estimate to stress. A quench mechanism due to mechanical disturbances in superconducting magnets is discussed. According to this mechanism, an internal slit was assumed as the reason for the mechanical disturbance. The internal slit is generated at the boundary between the superconductor and the bore element by the thermally induced stress. When charging a magnet, the induced electromagnetic force results in a stress concentration at the slit, and hence to an enlargement of it. During the enlargement of the internal slit, heat is generated at the top of it. Such heat generation from a mechanical disturbance can induce a quench. Through these investigations, the following coil manufacturing method can be proposed to reduce such stresses: the magnet should be manufactured to separate the bore element from the superconductor and this separation technique can reduce the boundary stress during cool-down. Actually, a thin teflon film at the boundary between the superconductor and the bore element can be used as a separator. Another separation technique is a teflon coating on the internal bore element. The separation technique should result in a stable epoxy-impregnated superconducting magnet. (J.P.N.)

  2. Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

    2013-05-01

    How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

  3. Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

  4. Abundance analysis of SDSS J134338.67+484426.6; an extremely metal-poor star from the MARVELS pre-survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmitha Rani, A.; Sivarani, T.; Beers, T. C.; Fleming, S.; Mahadevan, S.; Ge, J.

    2016-05-01

    We present an elemental-abundance analysis of an extremely metal-poor (EMP; [Fe/H] <-3.0) star, SDSS J134338.67+484426.6, identified during the course of the Multi-object Apache Point Observatory Radial Velocity Exoplanet Large-area Survey spectroscopic pre-survey of some 20 000 stars to identify suitable candidates for exoplanet searches. This star, with an apparent magnitude V = 12.14, is the lowest metallicity star found in the pre-survey, and is one of only ˜20 known EMP stars that are this bright or brighter. Our high-resolution spectroscopic analysis shows that this star is a subgiant with [Fe/H] = -3.42, having `normal' carbon and no enhancement of neutron-capture abundances. Strontium is underabundant, [Sr/Fe] = -0.47, but the derived lower limit on [Sr/Ba] indicates that Sr is likely enhanced relative to Ba. This star belongs to the sparsely populated class of α-poor EMP stars that exhibit low ratios of [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ca/Fe] compared to typical halo stars at similar metallicity. The observed variations in radial velocity from several epochs of (low- and high-resolution) spectroscopic follow-up indicate that SDSS J134338.67+484426.6 is a possible long-period binary. We also discuss the abundance trends in EMP stars for r-process elements, and compare with other magnesium-poor stars.

  5. De novo comparative transcriptome analysis of genes involved in fruit morphology of pumpkin cultivars with extreme size difference and development of EST-SSR markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xanthopoulou, Aliki; Ganopoulos, Ioannis; Psomopoulos, Fotis; Manioudaki, Maria; Moysiadis, Theodoros; Kapazoglou, Aliki; Osathanunkul, Maslin; Michailidou, Sofia; Kalivas, Apostolos; Tsaftaris, Athanasios; Nianiou-Obeidat, Irini; Madesis, Panagiotis

    2017-07-30

    The genetic basis of fruit size and shape was investigated for the first time in Cucurbita species and genetic loci associated with fruit morphology have been identified. Although extensive genomic resources are available at present for tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), cucumber (Cucumis sativus), melon (Cucumis melo) and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus), genomic databases for Cucurbita species are limited. Recently, our group reported the generation of pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo) transcriptome databases from two contrasting cultivars with extreme fruit sizes. In the current study we used these databases to perform comparative transcriptome analysis in order to identify genes with potential roles in fruit morphology and fruit size. Differential Gene Expression (DGE) analysis between cv. 'Munchkin' (small-fruit) and cv. 'Big Moose' (large-fruit) revealed a variety of candidate genes associated with fruit morphology with significant differences in gene expression between the two cultivars. In addition, we have set the framework for generating EST-SSR markers, which discriminate different C. pepo cultivars and show transferability to related Cucurbitaceae species. The results of the present study will contribute to both further understanding the molecular mechanisms regulating fruit morphology and furthermore identifying the factors that determine fruit size. Moreover, they may lead to the development of molecular marker tools for selecting genotypes with desired morphological traits. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Neurobiological basis of parenting disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Louise K; Harris, Melissa; Allen, Joanne

    2011-02-01

    It has been proposed that early attachment relationships shape the structure and reactivity of social brain structures that underlie later social capacities. We provide a review of the literature surrounding the development of neurological regulatory systems during infancy and outline recent research suggesting these systems go on to underlie adaptive parental responses. We review evidence in the peer-reviewed psychiatric literature including (i) observational human literature on the neurobiological and social sequelae of early parenting experiences, (ii) experimental animal literature on the effects of early maternal care on neurological development, (iii) experimental animal literature on the neurobiological underpinnings of parenting behaviours, (iv) observational and fMRI evidence on the neurobiological correlates of parenting behaviours, (v) functional and volumetric imaging studies on adults affected by borderline personality disorder. The development of infant regulatory systems is influenced by early parenting experiences. These frontolimbic regulatory systems are also heavily implicated in normal parental responses to infant cues. These frontolimbic disturbances are also observed in studies of borderline personality disorder; a disorder associated with poor emotional regulation, early trauma and disturbed parenting. While the current literature is limited to animal models of abnormal care giving, existing disorders associated with deficits in regulatory capacity and abnormal frontolimbic functioning may yet provide a human model of the neurobiology of parenting disturbance.

  7. UBVRc Ic ANALYSIS OF THE RECENTLY DISCOVERED TOTALLY ECLIPSING EXTREME MASS RATIO BINARY V1853 ORIONIS, AND A STATISTICAL LOOK AT 25 OTHER EXTREME MASS RATIO SOLAR-TYPE CONTACT BINARIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samec, R. G.; Labadorf, C. M.; Hawkins, N. C.; Faulkner, D. R.; Van Hamme, W.

    2011-01-01

    We present precision CCD light curves, a period study, photometrically derived standard magnitudes, and a five-color simultaneous Wilson code solution of the totally eclipsing, yet shallow amplitude (A v ∼ 0.4 mag) eclipsing, binary V1853 Orionis. It is determined to be an extreme mass ratio, q = 0.20, W-type W UMa overcontact binary. From our standard star observations, we find that the variable is a late-type F spectral-type dwarf, with a secondary component of about 0.24 solar masses (stellar type M5V). Its long eclipse duration (41 minutes) as compared to its period, 0.383 days, attests to the small relative size of the secondary. Furthermore, it has reached a Roche lobe fill-out of ∼50% of its outer critical lobe as it approaches its final stages of binary star evolution, that of a fast spinning single star. Finally, a summary of about 25 extreme mass ratio solar-type binaries is given.

  8. Biofuel production system with operation flexibility: Evaluation of economic and environmental performance under externa