Animal responses to natural disturbance and climate extremes: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Sergio, Fabrizio; Blas, Julio; Hiraldo, Fernando

2018-02-01

Natural disturbances, such as droughts, fires or hurricanes, are key drivers of ecological heterogeneity and ecosystem function. The frequency and severity of these episodes is unequivocally expected to increase in the coming decades, through the concerted action of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This will impose severe challenges for many biota through exposure to rapidly changing conditions never experienced in the preceding millennia. Thus, it is urgently needed to gain a thorough understanding of animal responses and adaptations to disturbances in order to better estimate potential future impacts. Here, we review such adjustments and find that animals may respond to disturbances through changes in: (1) behaviour, such as altered mobility, emigration, resource-switching, refuge use, suspended animation, or biotic interactions; (2) life history traits, such as survival, aging, longevity, recruitment, reproductive restraint, breeding output, phenology and bet-hedging tactics; (3) morphology, such as rapid evolution through size-dependent mortality or facultative metamorphosis; (4) physiology, such as altered body condition, pathogen prevalence and transmission, or adrenocortical modulation of stress responses to emergency conditions; (5) genetic structure, such as changes in frequency of polymorphic variants or diversity-modulation through mortality bottlenecks. Individual-level responses scale up to population and community responses, such as altered density, population dynamics, distribution, local extinction and colonization, or assemblage structure and diversity. Overall, disturbances have pervasive effects on individuals, populations and communities of vertebrates and invertebrates of all realms, biomes, continents and ecosystems. Their rapidly increasing incidence and severity will bring unique study opportunities for researchers and novel, unpredictable challenges for managers, while demanding tougher choices and more proactive crisis

Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2016-01-01

Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.-G. Zhou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

Post-disturbance sediment recovery: Implications for watershed resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Rathburn, Sara L.; Shahverdian, Scott M.; Ryan, Sandra E.

2018-03-01

Sediment recovery following disturbances is a measure of the time required to attain pre-disturbance sediment fluxes. Insight into the controls on recovery processes and pathways builds understanding of geomorphic resilience. We assess post-disturbance sediment recovery in three small (1.5-100 km2), largely unaltered watersheds within the northern Colorado Rocky Mountains affected by wildfires, floods, and debris flows. Disturbance regimes span 102 (floods, debris flows) to 103 years (wildfires). For all case studies, event sediment recovery followed a nonlinear pattern: initial high sediment flux during single precipitation events or high annual snowmelt runoff followed by decreasing sediment fluxes over time. Disturbance interactions were evaluated after a high-severity fire within the South Fork Cache la Poudre basin was followed by an extreme flood one year post-fire. This compound disturbance hastened suspended sediment recovery to pre-fire concentrations 3 years after the fire. Wildfires over the last 1900 YBP in the South Fork basin indicate fire recurrence intervals of 600 years. Debris flows within the upper Colorado River basin over the last two centuries have shifted the baseline of sediment recovery caused by anthropogenic activities that increased debris flow frequency. An extreme flood on North St. Vrain Creek with an impounding reservoir resulted in extreme sedimentation that led to a physical state change. We introduce an index of resilience as sediment recovery/disturbance recurrence interval, providing a relative comparison between sites. Sediment recovery and channel form resilience may be inversely related because of high or low physical complexity in streams. We propose management guidelines to enhance geomorphic resilience by promoting natural processes that maintain physical complexity. Finally, sediment connectivity within watersheds is an additional factor to consider when establishing restoration treatment priorities.

A meta-analysis of soil microbial biomass responses to forest disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Robin Holden

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Climate warming is likely to increase the frequency and severity of forest disturbances, with uncertain consequences for soil microbial communities and their contribution to ecosystem C dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we conducted a meta-analysis of 139 published soil microbial responses to forest disturbances. These disturbances included abiotic (fire, harvesting, storm and biotic (insect, pathogen disturbances. We hypothesized that soil microbial biomass would decline following forest disturbances, but that abiotic disturbances would elicit greater reductions in microbial biomass than biotic disturbances. In support of this hypothesis, across all published studies, disturbances reduced soil microbial biomass by an average of 29.4%. However, microbial responses differed between abiotic and biotic disturbances. Microbial responses were significantly negative following fires, harvest, and storms (48.7%, 19.1%, and 41.7% reductions in microbial biomass, respectively. In contrast, changes in soil microbial biomass following insect infestation and pathogen-induced tree mortality were non-significant, although biotic disturbances were poorly represented in the literature. When measured separately, fungal and bacterial responses to disturbances mirrored the response of the microbial community as a whole. Changes in microbial abundance following disturbance were significantly positively correlated with changes in microbial respiration. We propose that the differential effect of abiotic and biotic disturbances on microbial biomass may be attributable to differences in soil disruption and organic C removal from forests among disturbance types. Altogether, these results suggest that abiotic forest disturbances may significantly decrease soil microbial abundance, with corresponding consequences for microbial respiration. Further studies are needed on the effect of biotic disturbances on forest soil microbial communities and soil C dynamics.

Microgravity Disturbance Predictions in the Combustion Integrated Rack

Science.gov (United States)

Just, M.; Grodsinsky, Carlos M.

2002-01-01

This paper will focus on the approach used to characterize microgravity disturbances in the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR), currently scheduled for launch to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2005. Microgravity experiments contained within the CIR are extremely sensitive to vibratory and transient disturbances originating on-board and off-board the rack. Therefore, several techniques are implemented to isolate the critical science locations from external vibration. A combined testing and analysis approach is utilized to predict the resulting microgravity levels at the critical science location. The major topics to be addressed are: 1) CIR Vibration Isolation Approaches, 2) Disturbance Sources and Characterization, 3) Microgravity Predictive Modeling, 4) Science Microgravity Requirements, 6) Microgravity Control, and 7) On-Orbit Disturbance Measurement. The CIR is using the Passive Rack Isolation System (PaRIS) to isolate the rack from offboard rack disturbances. By utilizing this system, CIR is connected to the U.S. Lab module structure by either 13 or 14 umbilical lines and 8 spring / damper isolators. Some on-board CIR disturbers are locally isolated by grommets or wire ropes. CIR's environmental and science on board support equipment such as air circulation fans, pumps, water flow, air flow, solenoid valves, and computer hard drives cause disturbances within the rack. These disturbers along with the rack structure must be characterized to predict whether the on-orbit vibration levels during experimentation exceed the specified science microgravity vibration level requirements. Both vibratory and transient disturbance conditions are addressed. Disturbance levels/analytical inputs are obtained for each individual disturber in a "free floating" condition in the Glenn Research Center (GRC) Microgravity Emissions Lab (MEL). Flight spare hardware is tested on an Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) basis. Based on test and analysis, maximum disturbance level

The influence of experimental wind disturbance on forest fuels and fire characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffery B. Cannon; Joseph J. O' Brien; Louise Loudermilk; Matthew Dickinson; Chris J. Peterson

2014-01-01

Current theory in disturbance ecology predicts that extreme disturbances in rapid succession can lead to dramatic changes in species composition or ecosystem processes due to interactions among disturbances. However, the extent to which less catastrophic, yet chronic, disturbances such as wind damage and fire interact is not well studied. In this study, we simulated...

A Fourier analysis of extremal events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Yuwei

is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

Analysis of extreme events

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2009-04-01

Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

1997-12-31

A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

Sleep Disturbance, Sleep Duration, and Inflammation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies and Experimental Sleep Deprivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Michael R; Olmstead, Richard; Carroll, Judith E

2016-07-01

Sleep disturbance is associated with inflammatory disease risk and all-cause mortality. Here, we assess global evidence linking sleep disturbance, sleep duration, and inflammation in adult humans. A systematic search of English language publications was performed, with inclusion of primary research articles that characterized sleep disturbance and/or sleep duration or performed experimental sleep deprivation and assessed inflammation by levels of circulating markers. Effect sizes (ES) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were extracted and pooled using a random effect model. A total of 72 studies (n > 50,000) were analyzed with assessment of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα). Sleep disturbance was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .12; 95% CI = .05-.19) and IL-6 (ES .20; 95% CI = .08-.31). Shorter sleep duration, but not the extreme of short sleep, was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .09; 95% CI = .01-.17) but not IL-6 (ES .03; 95% CI: -.09 to .14). The extreme of long sleep duration was associated with higher levels of CRP (ES .17; 95% CI = .01-.34) and IL-6 (ES .11; 95% CI = .02-20). Neither sleep disturbances nor sleep duration was associated with TNFα. Neither experimental sleep deprivation nor sleep restriction was associated with CRP, IL-6, or TNFα. Some heterogeneity among studies was found, but there was no evidence of publication bias. Sleep disturbance and long sleep duration, but not short sleep duration, are associated with increases in markers of systemic inflammation. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electric power quality analysis methods. Application to voltage dips and harmonic disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanya, Ignatova

2006-10-01

The power quality concerns all the actors in the energy domains, that they are network administrators, suppliers, producers, or consumers of electricity. The research work presented in this PhD thesis is situated in the field of the power quality monitoring. Its objective is to introduce new techniques for analysis of power quality problems. There are different methods designed for the analysis of the power quality disturbances. This method reaches very good performances in the voltage dips analysis, as it allows segmenting, classifying and characterising these power quality disturbances. The periodic systems method allows the theoretical study of the generation and the propagation of harmonic disturbances in the network. Finally, the statistical matrix method has the objective to represent statistically electrical signals without loss of important information. (author)

The effects of memantine on behavioral disturbances in patients with Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kishi T

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Taro Kishi,* Shinji Matsunaga,* Nakao Iwata Department of Psychiatry, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Memantine is effective in the treatment of behavioral disturbances in patients with Alzheimer’s disease. It has not yet been fully determined which behavioral disturbances respond best to memantine.Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of memantine vs control (placebo or usual care for the treatment of individual behavioral disturbances (delusion, hallucination, agitation/aggression, dysphoria, anxiety/phobia, euphoria, apathy, disinhibition, irritability/lability, aberrant motor activity/activity disturbances, nighttime disturbance/diurnal rhythm disturbances, and eating disturbances. Randomized controlled studies of memantine in patients with Alzheimer’s disease were included in this study. To evaluate these outcomes, standardized mean difference (SMD, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs, based upon a random-effects model was evaluated in the meta-analysis.Results: A total of 11 studies (n=4,261; memantine vs placebo: N=4, n=1,500; memantine + cholinesterase inhibitors [M + ChEIs] vs ChEIs: N=7, n=2,761 were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to control, memantine showed significant improvement in agitation/aggression (SMD =-0.11; 95% CIs =-0.20, -0.03; P=0.01; I2=47%, delusion (SMD =-0.12; 95% CIs =-0.18, -0.06; P=0.0002; I2=0%, disinhibition (SMD =-0.08; 95% CIs =-0.15, -0.00; P=0.04; I2=0%, and nighttime disturbance/diurnal rhythm disturbances (SMD =-0.10; 95% CIs =-0.18, -0.02; P=0.02; I2=36%. Memantine was also marginally superior to control in hallucination (SMD =-0.06; 95% CIs =-0.12, 0.01; P=0.07; I2=0% and irritability/lability (SMD =-0.09; 95% CIs =-0.19, 0.01; P=0.07; I2=42%. Memantine is similar to control in dysphoria, anxiety/phobia, euphoria, apathy, and eating disturbance.Conclusion: The meta-analysis suggest

Sleep-wake disturbances after traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouellet, Marie-Christine; Beaulieu-Bonneau, Simon; Morin, Charles M

2015-07-01

Sleep-wake disturbances are extremely common after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). The most common disturbances are insomnia (difficulties falling or staying asleep), increased sleep need, and excessive daytime sleepiness that can be due to the TBI or other sleep disorders associated with TBI, such as sleep-related breathing disorder or post-traumatic hypersomnia. Sleep-wake disturbances can have a major effect on functional outcomes and on the recovery process after TBI. These negative effects can exacerbate other common sequelae of TBI-such as fatigue, pain, cognitive impairments, and psychological disorders (eg, depression and anxiety). Sleep-wake disturbances associated with TBI warrant treatment. Although evidence specific to patients with TBI is still scarce, cognitive-behavioural therapy and medication could prove helpful to alleviate sleep-wake disturbances in patients with a TBI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How a hurricane disturbance influences extreme CO2 fluxes and variance in a tropical forest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vargas, Rodrigo

2012-01-01

A current challenge is to understand what are the legacies left by disturbances on ecosystems for predicting response patterns and trajectories. This work focuses on the ecological implications of a major hurricane and analyzes its influence on forest gross primary productivity (GPP; derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS) and soil CO 2 efflux. Following the hurricane, there was a reduction of nearly 0.5 kgC m −2 yr −1 , equivalent to ∼15% of the long-term mean GPP (∼3.0 ± 0.2 kgC m −2 yr −1 ; years 2003–8). Annual soil CO 2 emissions for the year following the hurricane were > 3.9 ± 0.5 kgC m −2 yr −1 , whereas for the second year emissions were 1.7 ± 0.4 kgC m −2 yr −1 . Higher annual emissions were associated with higher probabilities of days with extreme soil CO 2 efflux rates ( > 9.7 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 ). The variance of GPP was highly variable across years and was substantially increased following the hurricane. Extreme soil CO 2 efflux after the hurricane was associated with deposition of nitrogen-rich fresh organic matter, higher basal soil CO 2 efflux rates and changes in variance of the soil temperature. These results show that CO 2 dynamics are highly variable following hurricanes, but also demonstrate the strong resilience of tropical forests following these events. (letter)

An artificial intelligence approach towards disturbance analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindner, A.; Klebau, J.; Fielder, U.; Baldeweg, F.

1987-01-01

The scale and degree of sophistication of technological plants, e.g. nuclear power plants, have been essentially increased during the last decades. Conventional disturbance analysis systems have proved to work successfully in wellknown situations. But in cases of emergencies, the operator staff needs a more advanced assistance in realizing diagnosis and therapy control. The significance of introducing artificial intelligence methods in nuclear power technology is emphasized. Main features of the on-line disturbance analysis system SAAP-2 are reported about. It is being developed for application in nuclear power plants. 9 refs. (author)

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis

KAUST Repository

Riegl, Bernhard; Berumen, Michael L.; Bruckner, Andrew

2013-01-01

Coral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.

Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis

KAUST Repository

Riegl, Bernhard

2013-03-07

Coral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.

Active disturbance rejection controller for chemical reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Both, Roxana; Dulf, Eva H.; Muresan, Cristina I.

2015-01-01

In the petrochemical industry, the synthesis of 2 ethyl-hexanol-oxo-alcohols (plasticizers alcohol) is of high importance, being achieved through hydrogenation of 2 ethyl-hexenal inside catalytic trickle bed three-phase reactors. For this type of processes the use of advanced control strategies is suitable due to their nonlinear behavior and extreme sensitivity to load changes and other disturbances. Due to the complexity of the mathematical model an approach was to use a simple linear model of the process in combination with an advanced control algorithm which takes into account the model uncertainties, the disturbances and command signal limitations like robust control. However the resulting controller is complex, involving cost effective hardware. This paper proposes a simple integer-order control scheme using a linear model of the process, based on active disturbance rejection method. By treating the model dynamics as a common disturbance and actively rejecting it, active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) can achieve the desired response. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

Active disturbance rejection controller for chemical reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Both, Roxana; Dulf, Eva H.; Muresan, Cristina I., E-mail: roxana.both@aut.utcluj.ro [Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, 400114 Cluj-Napoca (Romania)

2015-03-10

In the petrochemical industry, the synthesis of 2 ethyl-hexanol-oxo-alcohols (plasticizers alcohol) is of high importance, being achieved through hydrogenation of 2 ethyl-hexenal inside catalytic trickle bed three-phase reactors. For this type of processes the use of advanced control strategies is suitable due to their nonlinear behavior and extreme sensitivity to load changes and other disturbances. Due to the complexity of the mathematical model an approach was to use a simple linear model of the process in combination with an advanced control algorithm which takes into account the model uncertainties, the disturbances and command signal limitations like robust control. However the resulting controller is complex, involving cost effective hardware. This paper proposes a simple integer-order control scheme using a linear model of the process, based on active disturbance rejection method. By treating the model dynamics as a common disturbance and actively rejecting it, active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) can achieve the desired response. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Analysis of the influence of orbital disturbances applied to an artificial lunar satellite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V

2015-01-01

This paper analyzes the influence of the orbital disturbance forces in the trajectory of lunar satellites. The following gravitational and non-gravitational orbital disturbances are considered: the non-homogeneity of the lunar gravitational field; the gravitational attraction due to the third body, considering the Earth and the Sun; the lunar albedo; the solar radiation pressure. Numerical models were developed and implemented in an orbital trajectory simulator aiming to understand the dynamics of the orbital motion of an artificial satellite in lunar orbit when considering the simultaneous effect of all disturbances. Different orbits were simulated in order to characterize the major and the minor influence of each disturbing force as function of the inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node. This study can be very useful in the space mission analysis and in the selection of orbits less affected by environmental disturbances. (paper)

Forced wave induced by an atmospheric pressure disturbance moving towards shore

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yixiang; Niu, Xiaojing

2018-05-01

Atmospheric pressure disturbances moving over a vast expanse of water can induce different wave patterns, which can be determined by the Froude number Fr. Generally, Fr = 1 is a critical value for the transformation of the wave pattern and the well-known Proudman resonance happens when Fr = 1. In this study, the forced wave induced by an atmospheric pressure disturbance moving over a constant slope from deep sea to shore is numerically investigated. The wave pattern evolves from a concentric-circle type into a triangular type with the increase of the Froude number, as the local water depth decreases, which is in accord with the analysis in the unbounded flat-bottom cases. However, a hysteresis effect has been observed, which implies the obvious amplification of the forced wave induced by a pressure disturbance can not be simply predicted by Fr = 1. The effects of the characteristic parameters of pressure disturbances and slope gradient have been discussed. The results show that it is not always possible to observe significant peak of the maximum water elevation before the landing of pressure disturbances, and a significant peak can be generated by a pressure disturbance with small spatial scale and fast moving velocity over a milder slope. Besides, an extremely high run-up occurs when the forced wave hits the shore, which is an essential threat to coastal security. The results also show that the maximum run-up is not monotonously varying with the increase of disturbance moving speed and spatial scale. There exists a most dangerous speed and scale which may cause disastrous nearshore surge.

Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucek, Ross E; Rehage, Jennifer S

2014-06-01

The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Comparative Analysis for Selection of Appropriate Mother Wavelet for Detection of Stationary Disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Kamble, Saurabh Prakash; Thawkar, Shashank; Gaikwad, Vinayak G.; Kothari, D. P.

2017-12-01

Detection of disturbances is the first step of mitigation. Power electronics plays a crucial role in modern power system which makes system operation efficient but it also bring stationary disturbances in the power system and added impurities to the supply. It happens because of the non-linear loads used in modern day power system which inject disturbances like harmonic disturbances, flickers, sag etc. in power grid. These impurities can damage equipments so it is necessary to mitigate these impurities present in the supply very quickly. So, digital signal processing techniques are incorporated for detection purpose. Signal processing techniques like fast Fourier transform, short-time Fourier transform, Wavelet transform etc. are widely used for the detection of disturbances. Among all, wavelet transform is widely used because of its better detection capabilities. But, which mother wavelet has to use for detection is still a mystery. Depending upon the periodicity, the disturbances are classified as stationary and non-stationary disturbances. This paper presents the importance of selection of mother wavelet for analyzing stationary disturbances using discrete wavelet transform. Signals with stationary disturbances of various frequencies are generated using MATLAB. The analysis of these signals is done using various mother wavelets like Daubechies and bi-orthogonal wavelets and the measured root mean square value of stationary disturbance is obtained. The measured value obtained by discrete wavelet transform is compared with the exact RMS value of the frequency component and the percentage differences are presented which helps to select optimum mother wavelet.

Climate change and disturbance interactions: Workshop on climate change and disturbance interactions in western North America, Tucson, Ariz., 12-15 February 2007

Science.gov (United States)

McKenzie, Don; Allen, Craig D.

2007-01-01

Warming temperatures across western North America, coupled with increased drought, are expected to exacerbate disturbance regimes, particularly wildfires, insect outbreaks, and invasions of exotic species. Many ecologists and resource managers expect ecosystems to change more rapidly from disturbance effects than from the effects of a changing climate by itself. A particular challenge is to understand the interactions among disturbance regimes; for example, how will massive outbreaks of bark beetles, which kill drought-stressed trees by feeding on cambial tissues, increase the potential for large severe wildfires in a warming climate?Researchers in climatology, ecosystem science, fire and insect ecology, and landscape modeling from across western North America convened in Tucson, Ariz., for a 2 and a half day intensive workshop to identify new research directions in climate change and disturbance ecology. Four work groups focused on different aspects of the response of disturbance regimes to climate change: (1) extreme events and climatic variability (2) the effects of changing disturbance regimes on ecosystems, (3) disturbance interactions and cumulative effects, and (4) developing new landscape disturbance models. The workshop was structured with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision support method for achieving consensus from diverse groups of experts without sacrificing individual contributions.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

Biomarker responses of mussels exposed to earthquake disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Chandurvelan, Rathishri; Marsden, Islay D.; Glover, Chris N.; Gaw, Sally

2016-12-01

The green-lipped mussel, Perna canaliculus is recognised as a bioindicator of coastal contamination in New Zealand (NZ). Mussels (shell length 60-80 mm) were collected from three intertidal areas of Canterbury in the South Island of NZ prior to extreme earthquake disturbances on 22nd February 2011, and 9 months later in October 2011. Trace elements, including arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), were measured in the gills, digestive gland, foot and mantle. Metal levels in tissues were site specific, and mostly unaffected by earthquake disturbances. Physiological biomarkers were negatively affected by earthquake disturbances and mussels from the Port of Lyttelton had higher negative scope for growth post-earthquake. Metallothionein-like protein in the digestive gland correlated with metal content of tissues, as did catalase activity in the gill and lipid peroxidation values for the digestive gland. This research demonstrates that physiological and other biomarkers are effective at detecting the effects of multiple stressors following seismic disturbances.

Sleep Disturbance, Daytime Symptoms, and Functional Performance in Patients With Stable Heart Failure: A Mediation Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeon, Sangchoon; Redeker, Nancy S

2016-01-01

Sleep disturbance is common among patients with heart failure (HF) who also experience symptom burden and poor functional performance. We evaluated the extent to which sleep-related, daytime symptoms (fatigue, excessive daytime sleepiness, and depressive symptoms) mediate the relationship between sleep disturbance and functional performance among patients with stable HF. We recruited patients with stable HF for this secondary analysis of data from a cross-sectional, observational study. Participants completed unattended ambulatory polysomnography from which the Respiratory Disturbance Index was calculated, along with a Six-Minute Walk Test, questionnaires to elicit sleep disturbance (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Insomnia Symptoms from the Sleep Habits Questionnaire), daytime symptoms (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, Global Fatigue Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale), and self-reported functional performance (Medical Outcomes Study SF36 V2 Physical Function Scale). We used structural equation modeling with latent variables for the key analysis. Follow-up, exploratory regression analysis with bootstrapped samples was used to examine the extent to which individual daytime symptoms mediated effects of sleep disturbance on functional performance after controlling for clinical and demographic covariates. The sample included 173 New York Heart Association Class I-IV HF patients (n = 60/34.7% women; M = 60.7, SD = 16.07 years of age). Daytime symptoms mediated the relationship between sleep disturbance and functional performance. Fatigue and depression mediated the relationship between insomnia symptoms and self-reported functional performance, whereas fatigue and sleepiness mediated the relationship between sleep quality and functional performance. Sleepiness mediated the relationship between the respiratory index and self-reported functional performance only in people who did not report insomnia. Daytime symptoms explain the relationships between sleep

Covered Interest-Rate Parity Revisited: an Extreme Value Copula Analysis

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Mikel Ugando-Peñate

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This article studied the covered interest-rate parity (CIP condition under extreme market movements using extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to characterize dependence between extreme interest rate differentials and forward premium. The empirical analysis for the CIP between interest rates for the US dollar and the British pound indicates that there is strong co-movement between interest rate differentials and forward premium at different maturities and in both upper and lower tails. This conclusion would support the existence of the CIP condition under extreme market movements.

Propagating Disturbances in Coronal Loops: A Detailed Analysis of Propagation Speeds

Science.gov (United States)

Kiddie, G.; De Moortel, I.; Del Zanna, G.; McIntosh, S. W.; Whittaker, I.

2012-08-01

Quasi-periodic disturbances have been observed in the outer solar atmosphere for many years. Although first interpreted as upflows (Schrijver et al., Solar Phys. 187, 261, 1999), they have been widely regarded as slow magneto-acoustic waves, due to their observed velocities and periods. However, recent observations have questioned this interpretation, as periodic disturbances in Doppler velocity, line width, and profile asymmetry were found to be in phase with the intensity oscillations (De Pontieu and McIntosh, Astrophys. J. 722, 1013, 2010; Tian, McIntosh, and De Pontieu, Astrophys. J. Lett. 727, L37, 2011), suggesting that the disturbances could be quasi-periodic upflows. Here we conduct a detailed analysis of the velocities of these disturbances across several wavelengths using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We analysed 41 examples, including both sunspot and non-sunspot regions of the Sun. We found that the velocities of propagating disturbances (PDs) located at sunspots are more likely to be temperature dependent, whereas the velocities of PDs at non-sunspot locations do not show a clear temperature dependence. This suggests an interpretation in terms of slow magneto-acoustic waves in sunspots but the nature of PDs in non-sunspot (plage) regions remains unclear. We also considered on what scale the underlying driver is affecting the properties of the PDs. Finally, we found that removing the contribution due to the cooler ions in the 193 Å wavelength suggests that a substantial part of the 193 Å emission of sunspot PDs can be attributed to the cool component of 193 Å.

Multi-scale location analysis of vulnerabilities and their link to disturbances within digital ecosystems

OpenAIRE

Jackson, Jennifer

2017-01-01

As computer networks evolve, so too does the techniques used by attackers to exploit new vulnerabilities. Natural ecosystems already have resistant and resilient properties that help protect them from unwanted disturbances despite the existence of different vulnerabilities. Computer networks and their environments can be considered as digital ecosystems with different vulnerabilities, and security attacks can be considered as unwanted disturbances. Analysis of vulnerabilities and attacks from...

Integrated disturbance analysis (IDA): A basis for expert systems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastl, W.

1987-01-01

In the framework of a project sponsored by the Bundesminister fur Forschung und Technologie (BMFT) and the Rheinisch-Westfalisches Elektrizitatswerk AG (RWE) the concept of Integrated Disturbance Analysis (IDA) has been developed and applied to the Biblis Unit B Nuclear Power Plant. Rather than using the classical approach, which aims at finding the cause of a plant disturbance, the main goal was to make transparent to the operator what it really means for the process, when a set of parameters begins to deviate from its normal state. Therefore the goal was to help the operator to combine the information on the individual process parameters to the complete picture of the evolving transient, thus facilitating the decision about the importance of a disturbance for operational safety. Considering this goal the most important subjects taken care of were: to extend event sequence analysis by means of analog information; to provide adequate modelling of time dependent processes and feedback loops; to integrate IDA information effectively into the existing control room environment

A case of gait disturbance caused by low-dose gabapentin

Science.gov (United States)

Kanao-Kanda, Megumi; Kanda, Hirotsugu; Takahata, Osamu; Kunisawa, Takayuki

2016-01-01

Gabapentin, an anticonvulsant agent, is now often used for the treatment of neuropathic pain all over the world. It is unclear whether the combined use of gabapentin, sodium valproate, and flunitrazepam results in enhancement of the side effect, a gait disturbance. A 60-year-old man was taking oral sodium valproate for symptomatic epilepsy after a brain contusion and flunitrazepam to relieve insomnia. Oral gabapentin therapy was started for suspected neuropathic pain. Although the initial dose of oral gabapentin (200 mg) relieved the pain, the lower extremities became weak, resulting in a gait disturbance. The therapy was restarted with a halved dose, and this resolved the gait disturbance and relieved the pain. PMID:27354808

Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Boughton

2002-12-01

Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA

Factors that influence emotional disturbance in adults living in extreme poverty.

Science.gov (United States)

Palomar-Lever, Joaquina; Victorio-Estrada, Amparo

2012-04-01

Living in poverty conditions implies exposure to severe circumstances of social disadvantage, associated with greater propensity to contract illnesses. A negative correlation has consistently been observed between health and poverty. The chronic exposure to stress affects people's well-being through the development of symptoms of anxiety and depression. The suffering of these symptoms for a long time period may be considered as part of a more general syndrome of emotional disturbance, in detriment to a person's mental health. The objective of this study is to identify psychological factors that influence emotional disturbance, measured as symptoms of anxiety and depression, in adults living in poverty conditions in Mexico's central region. A total of 913 adults, 65.2% female, were surveyed. The mean age of the participants was 43.71 (±12.58) years and the mean number of years of schooling was 4.04 (±3.36). Variables corresponding to personal characteristics were measured. The results indicate that the most important risk factor for depression is anxiety and vice versa. Additionally, gender, negative self-esteem, lack of adequate strategies for confronting and resolving difficulties, and lack of self-regulation predicted depression, whereas stress, lack of self-regulation, and coping style predicted anxiety. These variables were better predictors than optimism, locus of control, sense of humor or religiosity. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2011 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Recovery of lotic macroinvertebrate communities from disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, J. Bruce

1990-09-01

Ecosystem disturbances produce changes in macrobenthic community structure (abundances, biomass, and production) that persist for a few weeks to many decades. Examples of disturbances with extremely long-term effects on benthic communities include contamination by persistent toxic agents, physical changes in habitats, and altered energy inputs. Stream size, retention, and local geomorphology may ameliorate the influence of disturbances on invertebrates. Disturbances can alter food webs and may select for favorable genotypes (e.g., insecticidal resistance). Introductions of pesticides into lotic ecosystems, which do not result in major physical changes within habitats, illustrate several factors that influence invertebrate recovery time from disturbance. These include: (1) magnitude of original contamination, toxicity, and extent of continued use; (2) spatial scale of the disturbance; (3) persistence of the pesticide; (4) timing of the contamination in relation to the life history stages of the organisms; (5) vagility of populations influenced by pesticides; and (6) position within the drainage network. The ability of macroinvertebrates to recolonize denuded stream habitats may vary greatly depending on regional life histories, dispersal abilities, and position within the stream network (e.g., headwaters vs larger rivers). Although downstream drift is the most frequently cited mechanism of invertebrate recolonization following disturbance in middle- and larger-order streams, evidence is presented that shows aerial recolonization to be potentially important in headwater streams. There is an apparent stochastic element operating for aerial recolonization, depending on the timing of disturbance and flight periods of various taxa. Available evidence indicates that recolonization of invertebrate taxa without an aerial adult stage requires longer periods of time than for those that possess winged, terrestrial adult stages (i.e., most insects). Innovative, manipulative

Disturbance analysis and surveillance system scoping and feasibility system. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowling, E.F.; Benedict, B.J.; Snidow, N.L.

1981-05-01

This report summarizes the results of a disturbance analysis and surveillance system (DASS) scoping and feasibility study conducted by The Babcock and Wilcox Company, Burns and Roe, Incorporated, General Physics Corporation, and Duke Power Company for Sandia Laboratories and the US Department of Energy. The report addresses selection of DASS goals and functions, development of a design concept for a DASS based on monitoring the nuclear plant subsystem functions and states against predetermined targets, and creation of engineering procedures for the design and implementation of a DASS. The validity of the procedures is evaluated based on application to a subset of the DASS functions. It is concluded that the DASS design concept is a feasible, systematic, and modular approach to plant disturbance identification

Prototype Design and Mission Analysis for a Small Satellite Exploiting Environmental Disturbances for Attitude Stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

AND MISSION ANALYSIS FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION by Halis C. Polat March 2016...FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Halis C. Polat 7...need a robust and accurate attitude control system. Due to the mass- and volume-constrained design environment of CubeSat, conventional methods are

A case of gait disturbance caused by low-dose gabapentin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanao-Kanda M

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Megumi Kanao-Kanda, Hirotsugu Kanda, Osamu Takahata, Takayuki Kunisawa Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan Abstract: Gabapentin, an anticonvulsant agent, is now often used for the treatment of neuropathic pain all over the world. It is unclear whether the combined use of gabapentin, sodium valproate, and flunitrazepam results in enhancement of the side effect, a gait disturbance. A 60-year-old man was taking oral sodium valproate for symptomatic epilepsy after a brain contusion and flunitrazepam to relieve insomnia. Oral gabapentin therapy was started for suspected neuropathic pain. Although the initial dose of oral gabapentin (200 mg relieved the pain, the lower extremities became weak, resulting in a gait disturbance. The therapy was restarted with a halved dose, and this resolved the gait disturbance and relieved the pain. Keywords: gabapentin, gait disturbance, side effect, neuropathic pain

Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

Statistical analysis of extreme values from insurance, finance, hydrology and other fields

CERN Document Server

Reiss, Rolf-Dieter

1997-01-01

The statistical analysis of extreme data is important for various disciplines, including hydrology, insurance, finance, engineering and environmental sciences. This book provides a self-contained introduction to the parametric modeling, exploratory analysis and statistical interference for extreme values. The entire text of this third edition has been thoroughly updated and rearranged to meet the new requirements. Additional sections and chapters, elaborated on more than 100 pages, are particularly concerned with topics like dependencies, the conditional analysis and the multivariate modeling of extreme data. Parts I–III about the basic extreme value methodology remain unchanged to some larger extent, yet notable are, e.g., the new sections about "An Overview of Reduced-Bias Estimation" (co-authored by M.I. Gomes), "The Spectral Decomposition Methodology", and "About Tail Independence" (co-authored by M. Frick), and the new chapter about "Extreme Value Statistics of Dependent Random Variables" (co-authored ...

Analysis of the formation of local cooling disturbances in sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultheiss, G.F.

1976-09-01

The aim of this analysis of the formation of local cooling disturbances in sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is to get results on the possible extent of blockages and the time necessary for growth which may be used for a safety evaluation. After an introduction where the thermohydraulic and physical/chemical aspects of the problems are considered, the causes for the local cooling disturbances and the phenomena arising with it are freated in more detail. (orig./TK) [de

Disturbance rejection performance analyses of closed loop control systems by reference to disturbance ratio.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Baris Baykant; Deniz, Furkan Nur; Keles, Cemal; Tan, Nusret

2015-03-01

This study investigates disturbance rejection capacity of closed loop control systems by means of reference to disturbance ratio (RDR). The RDR analysis calculates the ratio of reference signal energy to disturbance signal energy at the system output and provides a quantitative evaluation of disturbance rejection performance of control systems on the bases of communication channel limitations. Essentially, RDR provides a straightforward analytical method for the comparison and improvement of implicit disturbance rejection capacity of closed loop control systems. Theoretical analyses demonstrate us that RDR of the negative feedback closed loop control systems are determined by energy spectral density of controller transfer function. In this manner, authors derived design criteria for specifications of disturbance rejection performances of PID and fractional order PID (FOPID) controller structures. RDR spectra are calculated for investigation of frequency dependence of disturbance rejection capacity and spectral RDR analyses are carried out for PID and FOPID controllers. For the validation of theoretical results, simulation examples are presented. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interventions Employed with Students with Emotional Disturbance: A Meta-Analysis

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Wery, Jessica J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to synthesize research studies that examined interventions used with students with emotional disturbance. Specific goals were to determine the extent to which interventions improve outcomes for students with emotional disturbance, whether emotional disturbance characteristics are related to the effectiveness of…

Analytical development of disturbed matrix eigenvalue problem applied to mixed convection stability analysis in Darcy media

Science.gov (United States)

Hamed, Haikel Ben; Bennacer, Rachid

2008-08-01

This work consists in evaluating algebraically and numerically the influence of a disturbance on the spectral values of a diagonalizable matrix. Thus, two approaches will be possible; to use the theorem of disturbances of a matrix depending on a parameter, due to Lidskii and primarily based on the structure of Jordan of the no disturbed matrix. The second approach consists in factorizing the matrix system, and then carrying out a numerical calculation of the roots of the disturbances matrix characteristic polynomial. This problem can be a standard model in the equations of the continuous media mechanics. During this work, we chose to use the second approach and in order to illustrate the application, we choose the Rayleigh-Bénard problem in Darcy media, disturbed by a filtering through flow. The matrix form of the problem is calculated starting from a linear stability analysis by a finite elements method. We show that it is possible to break up the general phenomenon into other elementary ones described respectively by a disturbed matrix and a disturbance. A good agreement between the two methods was seen. To cite this article: H.B. Hamed, R. Bennacer, C. R. Mecanique 336 (2008).

Partial analysis of wind power limit for large disturbance using fixed speed wind turbine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos Fuentefria, Ariel; Cairo Rodriguez, Daniel; Boza Valerino, Juan Gualberto

2014-01-01

The amount of wind power that allow an electric network without losing his stability as known as wind power limit. The wind power limit fundamentally depends on the wind turbine technology and the weakness level of the system. To know the system behaviors in dynamic performance having into account the worst disturbance is a very important matter, a short circuit in one of the most power transference line or the loss of a large generation unit was a large disturbance that can affect system stability. The wind power limit may change with the nature of the disturbance. To know the wind power limit considering this conditions allow use the wind at maximum level. In the present paper the behavior of fixed speed wind turbine for different fault types is analyzed, at those conditions, the wind power is increasing until the system become voltage unstable. For the analysis the IEEE 14 Bus Test Case is used. The Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT) package is used for the simulation. (author)

Sliding Mode Tracking Control of a Wire-Driven Upper-Limb Rehabilitation Robot with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Niu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Robot-aided rehabilitation has become an important technology to restore and reinforce motor functions of patients with extremity impairment, whereas it can be extremely challenging to achieve satisfactory tracking performance due to uncertainties and disturbances during rehabilitation training. In this paper, a wire-driven rehabilitation robot that can work over a three-dimensional space is designed for upper-limb rehabilitation, and sliding mode control with nonlinear disturbance observer is designed for the robot to deal with the problem of unpredictable disturbances during robot-assisted training. Then, simulation and experiments of trajectory tracking are carried out to evaluate the performance of the system, the position errors, and the output forces of the designed control scheme are compared with those of the traditional sliding mode control (SMC scheme. The results show that the designed control scheme can effectively reduce the tracking errors and chattering of the output forces as compared with the traditional SMC scheme, which indicates that the nonlinear disturbance observer can reduce the effect of unpredictable disturbances. The designed control scheme for the wire-driven rehabilitation robot has potential to assist patients with stroke in performing repetitive rehabilitation training.

A meta-analysis of human disturbance impacts on Antarctic wildlife.

Science.gov (United States)

Coetzee, Bernard W T; Chown, Steven L

2016-08-01

Evidence-based assessments are increasingly recognized as the best-practice approach to determine appropriate conservation interventions, but such assessments of the impact of human disturbance on wildlife are rare. Human disturbance comprises anthropogenic activities that are typically non-lethal, but may cause short- and/or longer-term stress and fitness responses in wildlife. Expanding human activity in the Antarctic region is of particular concern because it increases the scope and potential for increased human disturbance to wildlife in a region that is often thought of as relatively untouched by anthropogenic influences. Here, we use a meta-analytical approach to synthesise research on human disturbance to wildlife over the last three decades in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic region. We combine data from 62 studies across 21 species on the behavioural, physiological and population responses of wildlife to pedestrian, vehicle and research disturbances. The overall effect size indicated a small, albeit statistically significant negative effect of disturbance (-0.39; 95% CI: -0.60 to -0.18). Negative effects were found for both physiological and population responses, but no evidence was found for a significant impact on wildlife behavioural responses. Negative effects were found across pedestrian, vehicle and research disturbances. Significant and high among-study heterogeneity was found in both disturbance and response sub-groups. Among species, it remains unclear to what extent different forms of disturbance translate into negative population responses. Most current guidelines to limit wildlife disturbance impacts in Antarctica recommend that approaches be tailored to animal behavioural cues, but our work demonstrates that behavioural changes do not necessarily reflect more cryptic, and more deleterious impacts, such as changes in physiology. In consequence, we recommend that pedestrian approach guidelines in the Antarctic region be revisited. Due to the high

Analysis of amplitude-phase disturbances of Wolf's numbers rhythmic structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vojchishin, K.S.

1978-01-01

Statistical analysis of Wolf's number rhythmic structure has been carried out. Wolf's number time series is considered as a stochastic signal with irregular disturbances of rhythmic structure appearing because of random variability of single cycle parameters. A method and an algorythm for transforming the signal, to reduce all quasi-eleven-year cycles of mean-monthly Wolf's numbers to a signal mean duration, to find out and to eliminate rhythmic phase disturbances, are proposed. An estimate of the accuracy of the procedure is given. The results of calculations (on the mean duration range of cycles) of estimates of their mathematical expectation, dispersion and correlation function depending on time and its shift are given. The conclusion that Wolf's number time series may be treated as a sequence of stochastic cycles with randomly varying amplitude, duration and phase is grounded. A possibility for reducing the forecast of smoothed mean-monthly Wolf's numbers for one or more cycles ahead to the forecast of only three abovementioned parameters is pointed out

ALSAN - A system for disturbance analysis by process computers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felkel, L.; Grumbach, R.

1977-05-01

The program system ALSAN has been developed to process the large number of signals due to a disturbance in a complex technical process, to recognize the important (in order to settle the disturbance within a minimum amount of time) information, and to display it to the operators. By means of the results, clear decisions can be made on what counteractions have to be taken. The system works in on-line-open-loop mode, and analyses disturbances autonomously as well as in dialog with the operators. (orig.) [de

Colorado River basin sensitivity to disturbance impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, K. E.; Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Jonko, A. K.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Bohn, T. J.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River basin is an important river for the food-energy-water nexus in the United States and is projected to change under future scenarios of increased CO2emissions and warming. Streamflow estimates to consider climate impacts occurring as a result of this warming are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain inputs—to fully understand impacts on streamflow sensitivity analysis can help determine how models respond under changing disturbances such as climate and vegetation. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in VIC. Additionally, we examine sensitivities of basin-wide model simulations using an approach that incorporates changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation to consider impact responses for snow-dominated headwater catchments, low elevation arid basins, and for the upper and lower river basins. We find that for the Colorado River basin, snow-dominated regions are more sensitive to uncertainties. New parameter sensitivities identified include runoff/evapotranspiration sensitivity to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI). Basin-wide streamflow sensitivities to precipitation, temperature and vegetation are variable seasonally and also between sub-basins; with the largest sensitivities for smaller, snow-driven headwater systems where forests are dense. For a major headwater basin, a 1ºC of warming equaled a 30% loss of forest cover, while a 10% precipitation loss equaled a 90% forest cover decline. Scenarios utilizing multiple disturbances led to unexpected results where changes could either magnify or diminish extremes, such as low and peak flows and streamflow timing

Applied Behavior Analysis: Its Impact on the Treatment of Mentally Retarded Emotionally Disturbed People.

Science.gov (United States)

Matson, Johnny L.; Coe, David A.

1992-01-01

This article reviews applications of the applied behavior analysis ideas of B. F. Skinner and others to persons with both mental retardation and emotional disturbance. The review examines implications of behavior analysis for operant conditioning and radical behaviorism, schedules of reinforcement, and emotion and mental illness. (DB)

Disturbance recording system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandra, A.K.; Deshpande, S.V.; Mayya, A.; Vaidya, U.W.; Premraj, M.K.; Patil, N.B.

1994-01-01

A computerized system for disturbance monitoring, recording and display has been developed for use in nuclear power plants and is versatile enough to be used where ever a large number of parameters need to be recorded, e.g. conventional power plants, chemical industry etc. The Disturbance Recording System (DRS) has been designed to continuously monitor a process plant and record crucial parameters. The DRS provides a centralized facility to monitor and continuously record 64 process parameters scanned every 1 sec for 5 days. The system also provides facility for storage of 64 parameters scanned every 200 msec during 2 minutes prior to and 3 minutes after a disturbance. In addition the system can initiate, on demand, the recording of 8 parameters at a fast rate of every 5 msec for a period of 5 sec. and thus act as a visicorder. All this data is recorded in non-volatile memory and can be displayed, printed/plotted and used for subsequent analysis. Since data can be stored densely on floppy disks, the volume of space required for archival storage is also low. As a disturbance recorder, the DRS allows the operator to view the state of the plant prior to occurrence of the disturbance and helps in identifying the root cause. (author). 10 refs., 7 figs

Biofuel production system with operation flexibility: Evaluation of economic and environmental performance under external disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Nannan

Biomass derived liquid hydrocarbon fuel (biofuel) has been accepted as an effective way to mitigate the reliance on petroleum and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. An increasing demand for second generation biofuels, produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and compatible with current infrastructure and vehicle technologies, addresses two major challenges faced by the current US transportation sector: energy security and global warming. However, biofuel production is subject to internal disturbances (feedstock supply and commodity market) and external factors (energy market). The biofuel industry has also heavily relied on government subsidy during the early development stages. In this dissertation, I investigate how to improve the economic and environmental performance of biorefineries (and biofuel plant), as well as enhance its survivability under the external disturbances. Three types of disturbance are considered: (1) energy market fluctuation, (2) subsidy policy uncertainty, and (3) extreme weather conditions. All three factors are basically volatile, dynamic, and even unpredictable, which makes them difficult to model and have been largely ignored to date. Instead, biofuel industry and biofuel research are intensively focused on improving feedstock conversion efficiency and capital cost efficiency while assuming these advancements alone will successfully generate higher profit and thus foster the biofuel industry. The collapse of the largest corn ethanol biofuel company, Verasun Energy, in 2008 calls into question this efficiency-driven approach. A detailed analysis has revealed that although the corn ethanol plants operated by Verasun adopted the more efficient (i.e. higher ethanol yield per bushel of corn and lower capital cost) dry-mill technology, they could not maintain a fair profit margin under fluctuating market condition which made ethanol production unprofitable. This is because dry-mill plant converts a single type of biomass feedstock (corn

Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season

A deformation (strain) envelope for cyclic disturbed sand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabaliauskas, Tomas; Ibsen, Lars Bo

2018-01-01

Recent advances in triaxial testing procedures revealed new properties governing disturbed sand stiffness. This paper summarizes the new observations into an original, proof of concept. The novel concept interpolates effective stress within a strain (deformation) envelope. Coulomb stress limits...... are still satisfied, but the stresses are interpolated using a deformation (strain) envelope. The method is not part of a constitutive formulation, but is remarkably functional in triaxial testing practice. The practicality is proven by plotting simulations on top of empirically measured stiffness history...... - the fitting is remarkably good even during tests of extreme complexity. The novelty has substantial interdisciplinary potential: offshore anchors and foundations, earthquakes and industrial processes - wherever dynamic loads and disturbed sand are encountered. It opens the door to a new branch of numerical...

Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Performance analysis for bounded persistent disturbances in PD/PID-controlled robotic systems with its experimental demonstrations

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jung Hoon; Hur, Sung-Moon; Oh, Yonghwan

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with performance analysis of proportional-derivative/proportional-integral-derivative (PD/PID) controller for bounded persistent disturbances in a robotic manipulator. Even though the notion of input-to-state stability (ISS) has been widely used to deal with the effect of disturbances in control of a robotic manipulator, the corresponding studies cannot be directly applied to the treatment of persistent disturbances occurred in robotic manipulators. This is because the conventional studies relevant to ISS consider the H∞ performance for robotic systems, which is confined to the treatment of decaying disturbances, i.e. the disturbances those in the L2 space. To deal with the effect of persistent disturbances in robotic systems, we first provide a new treatment of ISS in the L∞ sense because bounded persistent disturbances should be intrinsically regarded as elements of the L∞ space. We next derive state-space representations of trajectory tracking control in the robotic systems which allow us to define the problem formulations more clearly. We then propose a novel control law that has a PD/PID control form, by which the trajectory tracking system satisfies the reformulated ISS. Furthermore, we can obtain a theoretical argument about the L∞ gain from the disturbance to the regulated output through the proposed control law. Finally, experimental studies for a typical 3-degrees of freedom robotic manipulator are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method introduced in this paper.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Goudenhoofdt

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

Autogenic succession and deterministic recovery following disturbance in soil bacterial communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jurburg, Stephanie D.; Nunes, Ines Marques; Stegen, James C.

2017-01-01

The response of bacterial communities to environmental change may affect local to global nutrient cycles. However the dynamics of these communities following disturbance are poorly understood, given that they are often evaluated over macro-ecological time scales and end-point measurements. In ord...... diversity and functional redundancy, respond to disturbances like many macro-ecological systems and exhibit path-dependent, autogenic dynamics during secondary succession. These results highlight the role of autogenic factors and successional dynamics in microbial recovery....... to understand the successional trajectory of soil bacterial communities following disturbances and the mechanisms controlling these dynamics at a scale relevant for these organisms, we subjected soil microcosms to a heat disturbance and followed the community composition of active bacteria over 50 days...... slowed down, and a stability phase (after 29 days), during which the community tended towards its original composition. Phylogenetic turnover patterns indicated that the community experienced stronger deterministic selection during recovery. Thus, soil bacterial communities, despite their extreme...

Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors in the development of personality disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Depue, Richard A

2009-01-01

A dimensional model of personality disturbance is presented that is defined by extreme values on interacting subsets of seven major personality traits. Being at the extreme has marked effects on the threshold for eliciting those traits under stimulus conditions: that is, the extent to which the environment affects the neurobiological functioning underlying the traits. To explore the nature of development of extreme values on these traits, each trait is discussed in terms of three major issues: (a) the neurobiological variables associated with the trait, (b) individual variation in this neurobiology as a function of genetic polymorphisms, and (c) the effects of environmental adversity on these neurobiological variables through the action of epigenetic processes. It is noted that gene-environment interaction appears to be dependent on two main factors: (a) both genetic and environmental variables appear to have the most profound and enduring effects when they exert their effects during early postnatal periods, times when the forebrain is undergoing exuberant experience-expectant dendritic and axonal growth; and (b) environmental effects on neurobiology are strongly modified by individual differences in "traitlike" functioning of neurobiological variables. A model of the nature of the interaction between environmental and neurobiological variables in the development of personality disturbance is presented.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Application of Extreme Value Theory to Crash Data Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lan; Nusholtz, Guy

2017-11-01

A parametric model obtained by fitting a set of data to a function generally uses a procedure such as maximum likelihood or least squares. In general this will generate the best estimate for the distribution of the data overall but will not necessarily generate a reasonable estimation for the tail of the distribution unless the function fitted resembles the underlying distribution function. A distribution function can represent an estimate that is significantly different from the actual tail data, while the bulk of the data is reasonably represented by the central part of the fitted distribution. Extreme value theory can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of the fitted function in the tail region. In this study the peak-over-threshold approach from the extreme value theory was utilized to show that it is possible to obtain a better fit of the tail of a distribution than the procedures that use the entire distribution only. Additional constraints, on the current use of the extreme value approach with respect to the selection of the threshold (an estimate of the beginning of the tail region) that minimize the sensitivity to individual data samples associated with the tail section as well as contamination from the central distribution are used. Once the threshold is determined, the maximum likelihood method was used to fit the exceedances with the Generalized Pareto Distribution to obtain the tail distribution. The approach was then used in the analysis of airbag inflator pressure data from tank tests, crash velocity distribution and mass distribution from the field crash data (NASS). From the examples, the extreme (tail) distributions were better estimated with the Generalized Pareto Distribution, than a single overall distribution, along with the probability of the occurrence for a given extreme value, or a rare observation such as a high speed crash. It was concluded that the peak-over-threshold approach from extreme value theory can be a useful tool in

Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

2013-04-01

The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-09-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXTREMAL PROBLEMS IN ARBITRARY DOMAINS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samokhin Mikhail Vasilevich

2012-10-01

The author considers the problems concerning where B is either a unit sphere in the (D space or one of the classes , p>1. He shows the possibility of the results concerning the characteristic of extreme functions, their uniqueness, the possilble presentation of the functions from the classes and with the use of the Cauchy-Stieltjes integrals in the component of the D\\ suppµ set and the boundary behavior of an extreme function from the (D class. One should note that the given mathematical system can be implemented for making decisions in the field of construction engineering and structural analysis, it can provide research assistants and engineers with the background necessary for developing sound solutions and rational proposals.

Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach....... Three extreme events are assessed: low-voltage ride through, emergency stop and normal stop. The analysis is focused on finding which event has the most negative impact on the bearing extreme radial loads. The two latter events are carried out following the guidelines of the International...

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

Extreme Precipitation Estimation with Typhoon Morakot Using Frequency and Spatial Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hone-Jay Chu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan and produced copious amounts of precipitation in 2009. From the point view of hydrological statistics, the impact of the precipitation from typhoon Morakot using a frequency analysis can be analyzed and discussed. The frequency curve, which was fitted mathematically to historical observed data, can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance for runoff events of a certain magnitude. The study integrates frequency analysis and spatial analysis to assess the effect of Typhoon Morakot event on rainfall frequency in the Gaoping River basin of southern Taiwan. First, extreme rainfall data are collected at sixteen stations for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours and then an appropriate probability distribution was selected to analyze the impact of the extreme hydrological event. Spatial rainfall patterns for a return period of 200-yr with 24-hr duration with and without Typhoon Morakot are estimated. Results show that the rainfall amount is significantly different with long duration with and without the event for frequency analysis. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that extreme rainfall for a return period of 200-yr is highly dependent on topography and is smaller in the southwest than that in the east. The results not only demonstrate the distinct effect of Typhoon Morakot on frequency analysis, but also could provide reference in future planning of hydrological engineering.

Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future

Science.gov (United States)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-01-01

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre- and post-disturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

Disturbing forest disturbances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Volney, W.J.A.; Hirsch, K.G. [Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

2005-10-01

This paper described the role that disturbances play in maintaining the ecological integrity of Canadian boreal forests. Potential adaptation options to address the challenges that these disturbances present were also examined. Many forest ecosystems need fire for regeneration, while other forests rely on a cool, wet disintegration process driven by insects and commensal fungi feeding on trees to effect renewal. While there are characteristic natural, temporal and spatial patterns to these disturbances, recent work has demonstrated that the disturbances are being perturbed by climatic change that has been compounded by anthropogenic disturbances in forests. Fire influences species composition and age structure, regulates forest insects and diseases, affects nutrient cycling and energy fluxes, and maintains the productivity of different habitats. Longer fire seasons as a result of climatic change will lead to higher intensity fires that may more easily evade initial attacks and become problematic. Fire regimes elevated beyond the range of natural variation will have a dramatic effect on the regional distribution and functioning of forest ecosystems and pose a threat to the safety and prosperity of people. While it was acknowledged that if insect outbreaks were to be controlled on the entire forest estate, the productivity represented by dead wood would be lost, it was suggested that insects such as the forest tent caterpillar and the spruce bud worm may also pose a greater threat as the climate gets warmer and drier. Together with fungal associates, saproxylic arthropods are active in nutrient cycling and ultimately determine the fertility of forest sites. It was suggested that the production of an age class structure and forest mosaic would render the forest landscape less vulnerable to the more negative aspects of climate change on vegetation response. It was concluded that novel management design paradigms are needed to successfully reduce the risk from threats

Quantifying Forest and Coastal Disturbance from Industrial Mining Using Satellite Time Series Analysis Under Very Cloudy Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Alonzo, M.; Van Den Hoek, J.; Ahmed, N.

2015-12-01

The open-pit Grasberg mine, located in the highlands of Western Papua, Indonesia, and operated by PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI), is among the world's largest in terms of copper and gold production. Over the last 27 years, PT-FI has used the Ajkwa River to transport an estimated 1.3 billion tons of tailings from the mine into the so-called Ajkwa Deposition Area (ADA). The ADA is the product of aggradation and lateral expansion of the Ajkwa River into the surrounding lowland rainforest and mangroves, which include species important to the livelihoods of indigenous Papuans. Mine tailings that do not settle in the ADA disperse into the Arafura Sea where they increase levels of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and associated concentrations of dissolved copper. Despite the mine's large-scale operations, ecological impact of mine tailings deposition on the forest and estuarial ecosystems have received minimal formal study. While ground-based inquiries are nearly impossible due to access restrictions, assessment via satellite remote sensing is promising but hindered by extreme cloud cover. In this study, we characterize ridgeline-to-coast environmental impacts along the Ajkwa River, from the Grasberg mine to the Arafura Sea between 1987 and 2014. We use "all available" Landsat TM and ETM+ images collected over this time period to both track pixel-level vegetation disturbance and monitor changes in coastal SPM levels. Existing temporal segmentation algorithms are unable to assess both acute and protracted trajectories of vegetation change due to pervasive cloud cover. In response, we employ robust, piecewise linear regression on noisy vegetation index (NDVI) data in a manner that is relatively insensitive to atmospheric contamination. Using this disturbance detection technique we constructed land cover histories for every pixel, based on 199 image dates, to differentiate processes of vegetation decline, disturbance, and regrowth. Using annual reports from PT-FI, we show

Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1989-01-01

This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled ''Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed

Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okrent, D.

1989-03-01

This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed.

Anti-disturbance rapid vibration suppression of the flexible aerial refueling hose

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Zikang; Wang, Honglun; Li, Na

2018-05-01

As an extremely dangerous phenomenon in autonomous aerial refueling (AAR), the flexible refueling hose vibration caused by the receiver aircraft's excessive closure speed should be suppressed once it appears. This paper proposed a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) based refueling hose servo take-up system for the vibration suppression of the flexible refueling hose. A rapid back-stepping based anti-disturbance nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode (NFTSM) control scheme with a specially established finite-time convergence NFTSM observer is proposed for the PMSM based hose servo take-up system under uncertainties and disturbances. The unmeasured load torque and other disturbances in the PMSM system are reconstituted by the NFTSM observer and to be compensated during the controller design. Then, with the back-stepping technique, a rapid anti-disturbance NFTSM controller is proposed for the PMSM angular tracking to improve the tracking error convergence speed and tracking precision. The proposed vibration suppression scheme is then applied to PMSM based hose servo take-up system for the refueling hose vibration suppression in AAR. Simulation results show the proposed scheme can suppress the hose vibration rapidly and accurately even the system is exposed to strong uncertainties and probe position disturbances, it is more competitive in tracking accuracy, tracking error convergence speed and robustness.

A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Rulfová, Zuzana; Buishand, A.; Roth, M.; Kyselý, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 534, March (2016), s. 659-668 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * two-component extreme value distribution * regional frequency analysis * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169416000500

Small disturbance voltage stability assessment of power systems by modal analysis and dynamic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Ansari, Mohammad Reza

2008-01-01

The introduction of liberalized electricity markets in many countries has resulted in more highly stressed power systems. On the other hand, operating points of a power system are acceptable in the feasible region, which is surrounded by the borders of different stabilities. Power system instability is critical for all participants of the electricity market. Determination of different stability margins can result in the optimum utilization of power system with minimum risk. This paper focuses on the small disturbance voltage stability, which is an important subset of the power system global stability. This kind of voltage stability is usually evaluated by static analysis tools such as continuation power flow, while it essentially has dynamic nature. Besides, a combination of linear and nonlinear analysis tools is required to correctly analyze it. In this paper, a hybrid evaluation method composed of static, dynamic, linear, and nonlinear analysis tools is proposed for this purpose. Effect of load scenario, generation pattern, branch and generator contingency on the small disturbance voltage stability are evaluated by the hybrid method. The test results are given for New England and IEEE68 bus test systems. (author)

Disturbance Hydrology: Preparing for an Increasingly Disturbed Future

Science.gov (United States)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-12-01

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

A Novel Extreme Learning Control Framework of Unmanned Surface Vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ning; Sun, Jing-Chao; Er, Meng Joo; Liu, Yan-Cheng

2016-05-01

In this paper, an extreme learning control (ELC) framework using the single-hidden-layer feedforward network (SLFN) with random hidden nodes for tracking an unmanned surface vehicle suffering from unknown dynamics and external disturbances is proposed. By combining tracking errors with derivatives, an error surface and transformed states are defined to encapsulate unknown dynamics and disturbances into a lumped vector field of transformed states. The lumped nonlinearity is further identified accurately by an extreme-learning-machine-based SLFN approximator which does not require a priori system knowledge nor tuning input weights. Only output weights of the SLFN need to be updated by adaptive projection-based laws derived from the Lyapunov approach. Moreover, an error compensator is incorporated to suppress approximation residuals, and thereby contributing to the robustness and global asymptotic stability of the closed-loop ELC system. Simulation studies and comprehensive comparisons demonstrate that the ELC framework achieves high accuracy in both tracking and approximation.

Sleep disturbances in restless legs syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jović Jasmina

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Resteless legs syndrome (RLS is chronical neurological disorder characterized by urge to move legs that is usually accompanied by unpleasant sensations in the lower extremities. Sleep disturbance is one of the main accompanying symptoms of RLS which exists in approximatelly 90% of patients. Impairment of sleep is related to daily sleepiness, depressive and anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to detect frequency and characterisitics of sleep-related symptoms in patients with RLS, and its impairrment to daily sleepiness, fatique, anxiety and depression. Methods. We have examinated 94 patients with RLS. The diagnose of RLS was based on questionnaire with 4 specific questions according to the International Restless Legs Syndrome Study Group (IRLSSG criteria updated in 2003. Severity of symptoms was astimated with IRLSSG Rating Scale, depression and anxiety with Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS and Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HARS and sleepiness with Epworth Sleepiness scale (ESS. We astimated sleep characteristics and disturbances with specific questionnaire. Results. In our study 79.9% of patients had sleep-related symptoms. Average sleep duration was 6.50 ± 1.42 hours, with average frequency of awakening 2.34 ± 1.69 times per night. Average ESS score was 5.12 ± 4.08 (0–17. Patients with more severe symptoms had higher degree of sleepiness (p = 0.005. Patients with higher symptoms frequency, significantly more often had sleep disturbance (p = 0.016, tiredness and daily sleepiness (p = 0.001. Daily sleepiness (ESS also significantly correlates with depression (p < 0.05 and anxiety (p = 0.012. Conclusion. Our results confirm that sleep disturbances are one of the key accompanying symptoms of RLS which cause daily sleepiness, tiredness, depression and anxiety. Therefore, their early recognition and appropriate treatment must be a priority in RLS patients.

Extreme value analysis of meterological parameters observed at Narora during the period 1989-2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varakhedkar, V.K.; Dube, B.; Gurg, R.P.

2002-08-01

The design of engineering structures requires an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest, which is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand weather stresses. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Narora for the period 1989- 2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, maximum rainfall in a day and month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the variables such as annual maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and monthly maximum rainfall obey Fisher -Tippet Type -I extreme value distribution where as annual minimum air temperature, maximum hourly wind speed, daily maximum rainfall and maximum and minimum annual rainfall, obey Fisher -Tippet Type -2 extreme value distribution function. Various distribution function parameters for each variable are determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 years and 100 years are worked out. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in Narora area with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

The implications of recurrent disturbances within the world's hottest coral reef.

Science.gov (United States)

Bento, Rita; Hoey, Andrew S; Bauman, Andrew G; Feary, David A; Burt, John A

2016-04-30

Determining how coral ecosystems are structured within extreme environments may provide insights into how coral reefs are impacted by future climate change. Benthic community structure was examined within the Persian Gulf, and adjacent Musandam and northern Oman regions across a 3-year period (2008-2011) in which all regions were exposed to major disturbances. Although there was evidence of temporal switching in coral composition within regions, communities predominantly reflected local environmental conditions and the disturbance history of each region. Gulf reefs showed little change in coral composition, being dominated by stress-tolerant Faviidae and Poritidae across the 3 years. In comparison, Musandam and Oman coral communities were comprised of stress-sensitive Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae; Oman communities showed substantial declines in such taxa and increased cover of stress-tolerant communities. Our results suggest that coral communities may persist within an increasingly disturbed future environment, albeit in a much more structurally simple configuration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

(When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

2015-04-01

a seasonal cycle for each quantile of the distribution, which can be used for a fully data-adaptive definition of extremes as exceedances above this time-dependent quantile function. (2) Having thus identified the extreme events, their distribution is analyzed in both space and time. Following a procedure recently proposed by Lloyd-Hughes (2012) and further exploited by Zscheischler et al. (2013), extremes observed at neighboring points in space and time are considered to form connected sets. Investigating the size distribution of these sets provides novel insights into the development and dynamical characteristics of spatio-temporally extended climate and ecosystem extremes. (3) Finally, the timing of such spatio-temporally extended extremes in different climatic as well as ecological variables is tested pairwise to rule out that co-occurrences of extremes have emerged solely due to chance. For this purpose, the recently developed framework of coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2011; Rammig et al. 2014) is applied. The corresponding analysis allows identifying potential causal linkages between climatic extremes and extreme ecosystem responses and, thus, to study their mechanisms and spatial as well as seasonal distribution in great detail. In this work, the described method is exemplified by using different climate data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis as well as remote sensing-based land surface temperature data. References: Donges et al., PNAS, 108, 20422, 2011 Lloyd-Hughes, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 406, 2012 Rammig et al., Biogeosc. Disc., 11, 2537, 2014 Zscheischler et al., Ecol. Inform., 15, 66, 2013

Swarm: Recent Progress in Analysis of the Sun Induced Magnetic Disturbance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tøffner-Clausen, Lars; Lesur, Vincent; Brauer, Peter

The ESA Earth Observation Magnetic Mission Swarm carries high precision vector and scalar magnetometers. Careful analyses have revealed s smaller, Sun driven magnetic disturbance of the vector magnetometer. This disturbance have been imperically mapped and corrected since mid 2015. This work...

The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

2007-01-01

Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should......, the subject-group dimension, and the subject-discourse dimension. All three dimensions have specific structural characteristics that are expressed in the analytic relation. Extreme trauma causes disturbances in each of these dimensions. The authors present clinical material from a traumatized refugee...

Neuropsychological analysis of a typewriting disturbance following cerebral damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyle, M; Canter, G J

1987-01-01

Following a left CVA, a skilled professional typist sustained a disturbance of typing disproportionate to her handwriting disturbance. Typing errors were predominantly of the sequencing type, with spatial errors much less frequent, suggesting that the impairment was based on a relatively early (premotor) stage of processing. Depriving the subject of visual feedback during handwriting greatly increased her error rate. Similarly, interfering with auditory feedback during speech substantially reduced her self-correction of speech errors. These findings suggested that impaired ability to utilize somesthetic information--probably caused by the subject's parietal lobe lesion--may have been the basis of the typing disorder.

Transience after disturbance: Obligate species recovery dynamics depend on disturbance duration.

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, Alexander; Johst, Karin

2017-06-01

After a disturbance event, population recovery becomes an important species response that drives ecosystem dynamics. Yet, it is unclear how interspecific interactions impact species recovery from a disturbance and which role the disturbance duration (pulse or press) plays. Here, we analytically derive conditions that govern the transient recovery dynamics from disturbance of a host and its obligately dependent partner in a two-species metapopulation model. We find that, after disturbance, species recovery dynamics depend on the species' role (i.e. host or obligately dependent species) as well as the duration of disturbance. Host recovery starts immediately after the disturbance. In contrast, for obligate species, recovery depends on disturbance duration. After press disturbance, which allows dynamics to equilibrate during disturbance, obligate species immediately start to recover. Yet, after pulse disturbance, obligate species continue declining although their hosts have already begun to increase. Effectively, obligate species recovery is delayed until a necessary host threshold occupancy is reached. Obligates' delayed recovery arises solely from interspecific interactions independent of dispersal limitations, which contests previous explanations. Delayed recovery exerts a two-fold negative effect, because populations continue declining to even smaller population sizes and the phase of increased risk from demographic stochastic extinction in small populations is prolonged. We argue that delayed recovery and its determinants -species interactions and disturbance duration - have to be considered in biodiversity management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

Analysis of ionospheric disturbances associated with powerful cyclones in East Asia and North America

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wang; Yue, Jianping; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhen; Guo, Jinyun; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Kefei

2017-08-01

East Asia and North America are the regions most heavily affected by powerful cyclones. In this paper we investigate the morphological characteristics of ionospheric disturbances induced by cyclones in different continents. The global ionosphere map supplied by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), International Reference Ionosphere Model (IRI) 2012, and Wallops Island ionosonde station data are used to analyse the ionospheric variations during powerful typhoons/hurricanes in East Asia and North America, respectively. After eliminating the ionospheric anomalies due to the solar-terrestrial environment, the total electron content (TEC) time series over the point with maximum wind speed is detected by the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate that significant ionospheric disturbances are observed during powerful tropical cyclones in East Asia and North America, respectively, and that all the ionospheric anomalies are positive. In addition, the extent and magnitude of travelling ionospheric disturbances are associated with the category of tropical cyclone, and the extent of TEC anomalies in longitude is more pronounced than that in latitude. Furthermore, the maximum ionospheric anomaly does not coincide with the eye of the storm, but appears in the region adjacent to the centre. This implies that ionospheric disturbances at the edges of cyclones are larger than those in the eye of the winds. The phenomenon may be associated with the gravity waves which are generated by strong convective cells that occur in the spiral arms of tropical cyclones. This comprehensive analysis suggests that the presence of powerful typhoons/hurricanes may be a possible source mechanism for ionospheric anomalies.

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Abbie; Komers, Petr E

2017-06-01

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator-prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe-haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose ( Alces alces ) density and wolf ( Canis lupus ) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km 2 area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where 43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator-prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.

Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

2010-05-01

Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric

Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Ajayakumar

2017-10-01

Full Text Available With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE. SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the “North American storm complex” in December 2015, the “snowstorm Jonas” in January 2016, the “West Virginia floods” in June 2016, and the “Hurricane Matthew” in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with

Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE)

Science.gov (United States)

Ajayakumar, J.; Shook, E.; Turner, V. K.

2017-10-01

With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE). SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the "North American storm complex" in December 2015, the "snowstorm Jonas" in January 2016, the "West Virginia floods" in June 2016, and the "Hurricane Matthew" in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI) for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with social media data and will be useful

Joint application of AI techniques, PRA and disturbance analysis methodology to problems in the maintenance and design of nuclear power plants. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okrent, D.

1989-03-01

This final report summarizes the accomplishments of a two year research project entitled ``Joint Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Disturbance Analysis Methodology to Problems in the Maintenance and Design of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this project is to develop and apply appropriate combinations of techniques from artificial intelligence, (AI), reliability and risk analysis and disturbance analysis to well-defined programmatic problems of nuclear power plants. Reactor operations issues were added to those of design and maintenance as the project progressed.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjie Chen

2015-05-01

Full Text Available To analyze extreme precipitation patterns in Hainan Island, hourly precipitation datasets from 18 stations, for the period from 1967 to 2012, were investigated. Two precipitation concentration indices (PCI and 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPI were chosen. PCI1 indicated a moderate seasonality in yearly precipitation and PCI2 showed that at least 80% of the total precipitation fell in 20% of the rainiest hours. Furthermore, the spatial variations of PCI1 and PCI2 differed. Linear regression indicated increasing trends in 11 of the calculated EPI. Principal component analysis found that the first recalculated principal component represented the 11 EPI. The recalculated principal component revealed an increasing trend in precipitation extremes for the whole island (except the interior section. Trend stability analysis of several of EPI suggested that the southern parts of Hainan Island, and especially the city of Sanya, should receive more attention to establish the drainage facilities necessary to prevent waterlogging.

Nonlinear modelling and dynamic stability analysis of a flexible Cartesian robotic manipulator with base disturbance and terminal load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Ju

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The flexible Cartesian robotic manipulator (FCRM is coming into widespread application in industry. Because of the feeble rigidity and heavy deflection, the dynamic characteristics of the FCRM are easily influenced by external disturbances which mainly concentrate in the driving end and the load end. Thus, with the influence of driving base disturbance and terminal load considered, the motion differential equations of the FCRM under the plane motion of the base are constructed, which contain the forced and non-linear parametric excitations originated from the disturbances of base lateral and axial motion respectively. Considering the relationship between the coefficients of the motion differential equations and the mode shapes of the flexible manipulator, the analytic expressions of the mode shapes with terminal load are deduced. Then, based on multiple scales method and rectangular coordinate transformation, the average equations of the FCRM are derived to analyze the influence mechanism of base disturbance and terminal load on the system parametric vibration stability. The results show that terminal load mainly affects the node locations of mode shapes and mode frequencies of the FCRM, and the axial motion disturbance of the driving base introduces parametric excitation while the lateral motion disturbance generates forced excitation for the transverse vibration model of the FCRM. Furthermore, with the increase of the base excitation acceleration and terminal load, the parametric vibration instability region of the FCRM increases significantly. This study will be helpful for the dynamic characteristics analysis and vibration control of the FCRM.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L moments method

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani; Shabri, Ani

2013-07-01

An approach based on regional frequency analysis using L moments and LH moments are revisited in this study. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the partial L moments (PL moments) method is employed, and a new relationship for homogeneity analysis is developed. The results were then compared with those obtained using the method of L moments and LH moments of order two. The Selangor catchment, consisting of 37 sites and located on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, is chosen as a case study. PL moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized Pareto distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. PL moment ratio diagram and Z test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the three approaches showed that GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation used for performance evaluation shows that the method of PL moments would outperform L and LH moments methods for estimation of large return period events.

Homicides of law enforcement officers responding to domestic disturbance calls.

Science.gov (United States)

Kercher, Cassandra; Swedler, David I; Pollack, Keshia M; Webster, Daniel W

2013-10-01

To describe the law enforcement officer (LEO), encounter, perpetrator and victim characteristics of domestic disturbance-related LEO homicides in the USA from 1996 to 2010. Narrative text analysis was conducted on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's annual report 'Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted'. Potential cases were confirmed if the narrative included the term 'domestic disturbance' or a domestic disturbance situation was described. 116 LEOs were killed while responding to domestic disturbance calls. Ninety-five per cent of these homicides were committed with a firearm. Sixty-seven per cent of LEOs were wearing body armour when killed; however, 52% received the fatal wound to the head/neck. Sixty-one per cent of suspects had a criminal history mentioned within the narratives and perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) were more likely to be killed by LEOs than suspects involved in other forms of domestic violence. Victims of the domestic disturbance were killed in 21% of the IPV-related LEO homicide cases as opposed to only 5% of other domestic disturbance calls. A firearm was the most common weapon used in the murder of a domestic disturbance victim (86%). This study describes domestic disturbance-related LEO homicides. Future research in this area should further examine the dangers unique to domestic disturbance calls. A longitudinal analysis could provide greater understanding of the injury and mortality risks faced by LEOs, in order to inform homicide prevention among law enforcement.

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

Science.gov (United States)

Blaurock, Carl

2009-01-01

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral

An Extreme-Value Analysis of the LIL for Brownian Motion

OpenAIRE

Khoshnevisan, Davar; Levin, David; Shi, Zhan

2005-01-01

We use excursion theory and the ergodic theorem to present an extreme-value analysis of the classical law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for Brownian motion. A simplified version of our method also proves, in a paragraph, the classical theorem of Darling and Erdős (1956).

A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

Fourier fringe analysis and its application to metrology of extreme physical phenomena: a review [Invited].

Science.gov (United States)

Takeda, Mitsuo

2013-01-01

The paper reviews a technique for fringe analysis referred to as Fourier fringe analysis (FFA) or the Fourier transform method, with a particular focus on its application to metrology of extreme physical phenomena. Examples include the measurement of extremely small magnetic fields with subfluxon sensitivity by electron wave interferometry, subnanometer wavefront evaluation of projection optics for extreme UV lithography, the detection of sub-Ångstrom distortion of a crystal lattice, and the measurement of ultrashort optical pulses in the femotsecond to attosecond range, which show how the advantages of FFA are exploited in these cutting edge applications.

Stability analysis of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou Qi, E-mail: zhouqilhy@yahoo.com.c [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Xu Shengyuan [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Chen Bing [Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong (China); Li Hongyi [Space Control and Inertial Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Chu Yuming [Department of Mathematics, Huzhou Teacher' s College, Huzhou 313000, Zhejiang (China)

2009-10-05

This Letter considers the problem of stability analysis of a class of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances. The delays are assumed to be time-varying and bounded. By utilizing Ito's differential formula and Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, delay-range-dependent and rate-dependent (rate-independent) stability criteria are proposed in terms of linear matrices inequalities. An important feature of the proposed results is that all the stability conditions are dependent on the upper and lower bounds of the delays. Another important feature is that the obtained stability conditions are less conservative than certain existing ones in the literature due to introducing some appropriate free-weighting matrices. A simulation example is employed to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Measurable Disturbances Compensation: Analysis and Tuning of Feedforward Techniques for Dead-Time Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Pawlowski

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, measurable disturbance compensation techniques are analyzed, focusing the problem on the input-output and disturbance-output time delays. The feedforward compensation method is evaluated for the common structures that appear between the disturbance and process dynamics. Due to the presence of time delays, the study includes causality and instability phenomena that can arise when a classical approach for disturbance compensation is used. Different feedforward configurations are analyzed for two feedback control techniques, PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative and MPC (Model Predictive Control that are widely used for industrial process-control applications. The specific tuning methodology for the analyzed process structure is used to obtain improved disturbance rejection performance regarding classical approaches. The evaluation of the introduced disturbance rejection schemes is performed through simulation, considering process constraints in order to highlight the advantages and drawbacks in common scenarios. The performance of the analyzed structure is expressed with different indexes that allow us direct comparisons. The obtained results show that the proper design and tuning of the feedforward action helps to significantly improve the overall control performance in process control tasks.

Retrospective analysis of bottlenose dolphin foraging: a legacy of anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Rossman, Sam; Barros, Nélio B.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Stricker, Craig A.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Gandhi, Hasand; Wells, Randall S.

2013-01-01

We used stable isotope analysis to investigate the foraging ecology of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in relation to a series of anthropogenic disturbances. We first demonstrated that stable isotopes are a faithful indicator of habitat use by comparing muscle isotope values to behavioral foraging data from the same individuals. δ13C values increased, while δ34S and δ15N values decreased with the percentage of feeding observations in seagrass habitat. We then utilized stable isotope values of muscle to assess temporal variation in foraging habitat from 1991 to 2010 and collagen from tooth crown tips to assess the time period 1944 to 2007. From 1991 to 2010, δ13C values of muscle decreased while δ34S values increased indicating reduced utilization of seagrass habitat. From 1944 to 1989 δ13C values of the crown tip declined significantly, likely due to a reduction in the coverage of seagrass habitat and δ15N values significantly increased, a trend we attribute to nutrient loading from a rapidly increasing human population. Our results demonstrate the utility of using marine mammal foraging habits to retrospectively assess the extent to which anthropogenic disturbance impacts coastal food webs.

An Optimization-Based System Model of Disturbance-Generated Forest Biomass Utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Guy L.; Coulson, Robert N.; Gan, Jianbang; Tchakerian, Maria D.; Smith, C. Tattersall

2008-01-01

Disturbance-generated biomass results from endogenous and exogenous natural and cultural disturbances that affect the health and productivity of forest ecosystems. These disturbances can create large quantities of plant biomass on predictable cycles. A systems analysis model has been developed to quantify aspects of system capacities (harvest,…

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

Impacts of geo-physical factors and human disturbance on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We examined vegetation-disturbance-environment relationships in the Xiaomengyang Section of Xishuangbanna Nature Reserve (XNR) using multivariate analysis to understand the impacts of geo-physical factors and human disturbance on vegetation along the highway corridor. We found that native forests were the best ...

Forest economics, natural disturbances and the new ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Huggett; John M. Pye

2008-01-01

The major thesis of this chapter is that the economic analysis of forest disturbances will be enhanced by linking economic and ecologic models. Although we only review a limited number of concepts drawn generally from mathematical and empirical ecology, the overarching theme we present is that ecological models of forest disturbance processes are complex and not...

Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

2016-01-01

An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

Three-dimensional analysis of the anatomical growth response of European conifers to mechanical disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneuwly, Dominique M; Stoffel, Markus; Dorren, Luuk K A; Berger, Frédéric

2009-10-01

Studies on tree reaction after wounding were so far based on artificial wounding or chemical treatment. For the first time, type, spread and intensity of anatomical responses were analyzed and quantified in naturally disturbed Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Abies alba Mill. trees. The consequences of rockfall impacts on increment growth were assessed at the height of the wounds, as well as above and below the injuries. A total of 16 trees were selected on rockfall slopes, and growth responses following 54 wounding events were analyzed on 820 cross-sections. Anatomical analysis focused on the occurrence of tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts (TRD) and on the formation of reaction wood. Following mechanical disturbance, TRD production was observed in 100% of L. decidua and P. abies wounds. The radial extension of TRD was largest at wound height, and they occurred more commonly above, rather than below, the wounds. For all species, an intra-annual radial shift of TRD was observed with increasing axial distance from wounds. Reaction wood was formed in 87.5% of A. alba following wounding, but such cases occurred only in 7.7% of L. decidua. The results demonstrate that anatomical growth responses following natural mechanical disturbance differ significantly from the reactions induced by artificial stimuli or by decapitation. While the types of reactions remain comparable between the species, their intensity, spread and persistence disagree considerably. We also illustrate that the external appearance of wounds does not reflect an internal response intensity. This study reveals that disturbance induced under natural conditions triggers more intense and more widespread anatomical responses than that induced under artificial stimuli, and that experimental laboratory tests considerably underestimate tree response.

An impact of deforestation by extreme weather events on Sphagnum peatland ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Slowinski, M. M.; Łuców, D.; Kołaczek, P.; Tjallingii, R.; Lane, C. S.; Slowinska, S.; Tyszkowski, S.; Łokas, E.; Theuerkauf, M.; Brauer, A.; Lamentowicz, M.

2017-12-01

An increase in extreme weather phenomena has been observed over the last decades as a result of global climate warming. Terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by different types of disturbances such as e.g. deforestation, land-use, fragmentation, fire, floods or storms. Disturbance triggers may be natural or anthropogenic, but usually we observe negative feedback loops and interconnected causal factors. Here we investigate the effects of a tornado event on the peatland ecosystem of the Tuchola Pinewoods, Northern Poland. Deforestation by tornado events can cause severe perturbations of the hydrology and erosion that, in turn, affects adjacent lakes and peatlands. Martwe peatland provide an exceptional opportunity to study the impact of such extreme events, as it was struck by a tornado in 2012. Our research is focused on lake-peatland ecosystems that were directly affected by this tornado, and we consider the general transformation of the vegetation (mainly forests) over the last 150 years. Extensive clearing of the forest occurred in the nineteenth century due to human activity, and we compare this with the impact of the 2012 tornado. Accurate reconstructions will rely on a broad range of palaeoecological techniques such as pollen, macro-remains and testate amoebae, but also on geochemistry, i.e. μXRF scanning. The chronology of the records is based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating and will incorporate correlations using (crypto)tephra markers of the Eyjafjöll (2010) and Askja (1875) eruptions. We expect to observe that disturbance (tornado-induced deforestation) affects the short-term changes in peatland productivity and biodiversity, through a cascading "top-down" effect. This research addresses the emerging issue of the impact of extreme phenomena and more general climate changes on peatland ecosystems, which will potentially help to inform adaptations to the environmental consequences of extreme events in the future. This project is funded by the Polish

Work Time Control and Sleep Disturbances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salo, Paula; Ala-Mursula, Leena; Rod, Naja Hulvej

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Employee control over work times has been associated with favorable psychosocial and health-related outcomes, but the evidence regarding sleep quality remains inconclusive. We examined cross-sectional and prospective associations between work time control and sleep disturbances...... in a large working population, taking into account total hours worked. METHODS: The data were from a full-panel longitudinal cohort study of Finnish public sector employees who responded to questions on work time control and sleep disturbances in years 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2008-2009, and 2012. The analysis....... RESULTS: Consistently in both cross-sectional and longitudinal models, less control over work time was associated with greater sleep disturbances in the total population and among those working normal 40-hour weeks. Among participants working more than 40 hours a week, work time that was both very high...

Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change.

Science.gov (United States)

Buma, Brian; Costanza, Jennifer K; Riitters, Kurt

2017-11-21

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km 2 . We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal Dean

2016-01-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hectopascal heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10 percent of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

Phase Image Analysis in Conduction Disturbance Patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwark, Byeng Su; Choi, Si Wan; Kang, Seung Sik; Park, Ki Nam; Lee, Kang Wook; Jeon, Eun Seok; Park, Chong Hun [Chung Nam University Hospital, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

1994-03-15

It is known that the normal His-Purkinje system provides for nearly synchronous activation of right (RV) and left (LV) ventricles. When His-Purkinje conduction is abnormal, the resulting sequence of ventricular contraction must be correspondingly abnormal. These abnormal mechanical consequences were difficult to demonstrate because of the complexity and the rapidity of its events. To determine the relationship of the phase changes and the abnormalities of ventricular conduction, we performed phase image analysis of Tc-RBC gated blood pool scintigrams in patients with intraventricular conduction disturbances (24 complete left bundle branch block (C-LBBB), 15 complete right bundle branch block (C-RBBB), 13 Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW), 10 controls). The results were as follows; 1) The ejection fraction (EF), peak ejection rate (PER), and peak filling rate (PFR) of LV in gated blood pool scintigraphy (GBPS) were significantly lower in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (44.4 +- 13.9% vs 69.9 +- 4.2%, 2.48 +- 0.98 vs 3.51 +- 0,62, 1.76 +- 0.71 vs 3.38 +- 0.92, respectively, p<0.05). 2) In the phase angle analysis of LV, Standard deviation (SD), width of half maximum of phase angle (FWHM), and range of phase angle were significantly increased in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (20.6 + 18.1 vs S.6 + I.8, 22. 5 + 9.2 vs 16.0 + 3.9, 95.7 + 31.7 vs 51.3 + 5.4, respectively, p<0.05). 3) There was no significant difference in EF, PER, PFR between patients with the WolffParkinson-White syndrome and controls. 4) Standard deviation and range of phase angle were significantly higher in patients with WPW syndrome than in controls (10.6 + 2.6 vs 8.6 + 1.8, p<0.05, 69.8 + 11.7 vs 51.3 + 5 4, p<0.001, respectively), however, there was no difference between the two groups in full width of half maximum. 5) Phase image analysis revealed relatively uniform phase across the both ventriles in patients with normal conduction, but markedly delayed phase in the left ventricle

Risk factors for breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema: a meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Yuhuan; Guo Qi; Liu Fenghua; Zhu Yaqun; Tian Ye

2014-01-01

Objective: To systematically evaluate the risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment and the strength of their associations. Methods: PubMed, Ovid, EMbase, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify clinical trials published up to December 2012. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale;data analysis was performed by Stata 10.0 and RevMan 5.2; the strength of associations between risk factors and breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema was described as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Twenty-two studies involving 10106 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment mainly included axillary lymph node dissection (OR=2.72, 95% CI=1.06-6.99, P=0.038), hypertension (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.38-2.44, P=0.000), body mass index (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.22-2.32, P=0.001), and radiotherapy (OR=1.65, 95% CI=1.20-2.25, P=0.002), while no significant associations were found for such factors as chemotherapy, age, number of positive lymph nodes, and number of dissected lymph nodes. Conclusions: The incidence of upper extremity lymphedema is high among patients with breast cancer after treatment, and axillary lymph node dissection, hypertension,body mass index, and radiotherapy are the main risk factors for lymphedema after breast cancer treatment. (authors)

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2004-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

Reconstructing disturbance history for an intensively mined region by time-series analysis of Landsat imagery.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Zipper, Carl E; Donovan, Patricia F; Wynne, Randolph H; Oliphant, Adam J

2015-09-01

Surface mining disturbances have attracted attention globally due to extensive influence on topography, land use, ecosystems, and human populations in mineral-rich regions. We analyzed a time series of Landsat satellite imagery to produce a 28-year disturbance history for surface coal mining in a segment of eastern USA's central Appalachian coalfield, southwestern Virginia. The method was developed and applied as a three-step sequence: vegetation index selection, persistent vegetation identification, and mined-land delineation by year of disturbance. The overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient were 0.9350 and 0.9252, respectively. Most surface coal mines were identified correctly by location and by time of initial disturbance. More than 8 % of southwestern Virginia's >4000-km(2) coalfield area was disturbed by surface coal mining over the 28-year period. Approximately 19.5 % of the Appalachian coalfield surface within the most intensively mined county (Wise County) has been disturbed by mining. Mining disturbances expanded steadily and progressively over the study period. Information generated can be applied to gain further insight concerning mining influences on ecosystems and other essential environmental features.

Landscape level analysis of disturbance regimes in protected areas ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

G B Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, Almora 263 643, Uttarakhand, India. ... level assessment of fragmentation and disturbance index in protected areas of Rajasthan using remote ..... anthropogenic/natural forces on the landscape was ..... Environmental Research, Engineering and Management.

Analysis of Extreme Snow Water Equivalent Data in Central New Hampshire

Science.gov (United States)

Vuyovich, C.; Skahill, B. E.; Kanney, J. F.; Carr, M.

2017-12-01

Heavy snowfall and snowmelt-related events have been linked to widespread flooding and damages in many regions of the U.S. Design of critical infrastructure in these regions requires spatial estimates of extreme snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we develop station specific and spatially explicit estimates of extreme SWE using data from fifteen snow sampling stations maintained by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The stations are located in the Mascoma, Pemigewasset, Winnipesaukee, Ossipee, Salmon Falls, Lamprey, Sugar, and Isinglass basins in New Hampshire. The average record length for the fifteen stations is approximately fifty-nine years. The spatial analysis of extreme SWE involves application of two Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling methods, one that assumes conditional independence, and another which uses the Smith max-stable process model to account for spatial dependence. We also apply additional max-stable process models, albeit not in a Bayesian framework, that better model the observed dependence among the extreme SWE data. The spatial process modeling leverages readily available and relevant spatially explicit covariate data. The noted additional max-stable process models also used the nonstationary winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, which has been observed to influence snowy weather along the east coast of the United States. We find that, for this data set, SWE return level estimates are consistently higher when derived using methods which account for the observed spatial dependence among the extreme data. This is particularly significant for design scenarios of relevance for critical infrastructure evaluation.

Recent history of large-scale ecosystem disturbances in North America derived from the AVHRR satellite record.

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher Potter; Tan Pang-Ning; Vipin Kumar; Chris Kucharik; Steven Klooster; Vanessa Genovese; Warren Cohen; Sean. Healey

2005-01-01

Ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by disturbance events, many of which in North America are associated with seasonal temperature extremes, wildfires, and tropical storms. This study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR...

Comparison on the Analysis on PM10 Data based on Average and Extreme Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Amin Nor Azrita

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The main concern in environmental issue is on extreme phenomena (catastrophic instead of common events. However, most statistical approaches are concerned primarily with the centre of a distribution or on the average value rather than the tail of the distribution which contains the extreme observations. The concept of extreme value theory affords attention to the tails of distribution where standard models are proved unreliable to analyse extreme series. High level of particulate matter (PM10 is a common environmental problem which causes various impacts to human health and material damages. If the main concern is on extreme events, then extreme value analysis provides the best result with significant evidence. The monthly average and monthly maxima PM10 data for Perlis from 2003 to 2014 were analysed. Forecasting for average data is made by Holt-Winters method while return level determine the predicted value of extreme events that occur on average once in a certain period. The forecasting from January 2015 to December 2016 for average data found that the highest forecasted value is 58.18 (standard deviation 18.45 on February 2016 while return level achieved 253.76 units for 24 months (2015-2016 return periods.

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

2009-09-15

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

2009-01-01

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

ISOSTATICALLY DISTURBED TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN ANDES MOUNTAINS FROM SPECTRALLY CORRELATED FREE-AIR AND GRAVITY TERRAIN DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hernández P Orlando

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Recently revised models on global tectonics describe the convergence of the North Andes, Nazca, Caribbean and South American Plates and their seismicity, volcanism, active faulting and extreme
topography. The current plate boundaries of the area are mainly interpreted from volcanic and seismic datasets with variable confidence levels. New insights on the isostatic state and plate boundaries of
the northwestern Andes Mountains can be obtained from the spectral analysis of recently available gravity and topography data.
Isostatically disturbed terrain produces free-air anomalies that are highly correlated with the gravity effects of the terrain. The terrain gravity effects (TGE and free air gravity anomalies (FAGA of the
Andes mountains spectral correlation data confirms that these mountains are isostatically disturbed. Strong negative terrain-correlated FAGA along western South America and the Greater and Lesser Antilles are consistent with anomalously deepened mantle displaced by subducting oceanic plates.

Inversion of the compensated terrain gravity effects (CTGE reveals plate subduction systems with alternating shallower and steeper subduction angles. The gravity modeling highlights crustal
deformation from plate collision and subduction and other constraints on the tectonism of the plate boundary zones for the region.

ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC DISTURBANCE REGIMES IN STREAMS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

Science.gov (United States)

Streamflow variability is an important component of physical disturbance in streams, and is likely to be a major organizing feature of habitat for stream fishes. The disturbance regime in streams is frequently described by the variability in streamflow from both floods and prolo...

Smith predictor-based multiple periodic disturbance compensation for long dead-time processes

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Fang; Li, Han-Xiong; Shen, Ping

2018-05-01

Many disturbance rejection methods have been proposed for processes with dead-time, while these existing methods may not work well under multiple periodic disturbances. In this paper, a multiple periodic disturbance rejection is proposed under the Smith predictor configuration for processes with long dead-time. One feedback loop is added to compensate periodic disturbance while retaining the advantage of the Smith predictor. With information of the disturbance spectrum, the added feedback loop can remove multiple periodic disturbances effectively. The robust stability can be easily maintained through the rigorous analysis. Finally, simulation examples demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method for processes with long dead-time.

Nutrition security under extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, A.

2017-12-01

Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

2017-05-24

In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

Growth Curve Analysis and Change-Points Detection in Extremes

KAUST Repository

Meng, Rui

2016-05-15

The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed

Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-02-01

This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

Science.gov (United States)

Korup, Oliver

2012-05-01

Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

Ionospheric irregularities in periods of meteorological disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Borchevkina, O. P.; Karpov, I. V.

2017-09-01

The results of observations of the total electron content (TEC) in periods of storm disturbances of meteorological situation are presented in the paper. The observational results have shown that a passage of a meteorological storm is accompanied by a substantial decrease in values of TEC and critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 region. The decreases in values of these ionospheric parameters reach 50% and up to 30% in TEC and critical frequency of the F2 layer, respectively, as compared to meteorologically quiet days. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the processes related to formation of local regions of thermospheric heating due to a dissipation of AGW coming into the upper atmosphere from the region of the meteorological disturbance in the lower atmosphere are a possible cause of these ionospheric disturbances.

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

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Dhian Dharma Prayuda

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

Phase Image Analysis in Conduction Disturbance Patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwark, Byeng Su; Choi, Si Wan; Kang, Seung Sik; Park, Ki Nam; Lee, Kang Wook; Jeon, Eun Seok; Park, Chong Hun

1994-01-01

It is known that the normal His-Purkinje system provides for nearly synchronous activation of right (RV) and left (LV) ventricles. When His-Purkinje conduction is abnormal, the resulting sequence of ventricular contraction must be correspondingly abnormal. These abnormal mechanical consequences were difficult to demonstrate because of the complexity and the rapidity of its events. To determine the relationship of the phase changes and the abnormalities of ventricular conduction, we performed phase image analysis of Tc-RBC gated blood pool scintigrams in patients with intraventricular conduction disturbances (24 complete left bundle branch block (C-LBBB), 15 complete right bundle branch block (C-RBBB), 13 Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW), 10 controls). The results were as follows; 1) The ejection fraction (EF), peak ejection rate (PER), and peak filling rate (PFR) of LV in gated blood pool scintigraphy (GBPS) were significantly lower in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (44.4 ± 13.9% vs 69.9 ± 4.2%, 2.48 ± 0.98 vs 3.51 ± 0,62, 1.76 ± 0.71 vs 3.38 ± 0.92, respectively, p<0.05). 2) In the phase angle analysis of LV, Standard deviation (SD), width of half maximum of phase angle (FWHM), and range of phase angle were significantly increased in patients with C-LBBB than in controls (20.6 + 18.1 vs S.6 + I.8, 22. 5 + 9.2 vs 16.0 + 3.9, 95.7 + 31.7 vs 51.3 + 5.4, respectively, p<0.05). 3) There was no significant difference in EF, PER, PFR between patients with the WolffParkinson-White syndrome and controls. 4) Standard deviation and range of phase angle were significantly higher in patients with WPW syndrome than in controls (10.6 + 2.6 vs 8.6 + 1.8, p<0.05, 69.8 + 11.7 vs 51.3 + 5 4, p<0.001, respectively), however, there was no difference between the two groups in full width of half maximum. 5) Phase image analysis revealed relatively uniform phase across the both ventriles in patients with normal conduction, but markedly delayed phase in the left ventricle

Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

How development and disturbance of biological soil crust do affect runoff and erosion in drylands?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chamizo, S.; Canton, Y.; Afana, A.; Lazaro, R.; Domingo, F.; Sole-Benet, A.

2009-07-01

Deserts and semiarid ecosystems (shrub lands and grasslands) are the largest terrestrial biome, covering more than 40% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and Biological Soil Crusts (BSCs) are the predominant surface type in most of those ecosystems covering up to 70% of its surface. BSCs have been demonstrated to be very vulnerable to disturbance due to human activities and their loss has been implicated as a factor leading to accelerate soil erosion and other forms of land degradation. Incorporation of the response of different type of soil crusts and the effects of the their disturbance is likely to improve the prediction of runoff and water erosion models in arid and semi-arid catchments. The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of crust disturbance on infiltration and erosion. Extreme rainfall simulations at micro plots scale were performed in two semiarid ecosystems with different lithology and conditions of occurrence of BSCs: El Cautivo and Amoladeras. (Author) 10 refs.

How development and disturbance of biological soil crust do affect runoff and erosion in drylands?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chamizo, S.; Canton, Y.; Afana, A.; Lazaro, R.; Domingo, F.; Sole-Benet, A.

2009-01-01

Deserts and semiarid ecosystems (shrub lands and grasslands) are the largest terrestrial biome, covering more than 40% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and Biological Soil Crusts (BSCs) are the predominant surface type in most of those ecosystems covering up to 70% of its surface. BSCs have been demonstrated to be very vulnerable to disturbance due to human activities and their loss has been implicated as a factor leading to accelerate soil erosion and other forms of land degradation. Incorporation of the response of different type of soil crusts and the effects of the their disturbance is likely to improve the prediction of runoff and water erosion models in arid and semi-arid catchments. The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of crust disturbance on infiltration and erosion. Extreme rainfall simulations at micro plots scale were performed in two semiarid ecosystems with different lithology and conditions of occurrence of BSCs: El Cautivo and Amoladeras. (Author) 10 refs.

Detecting the Land-Cover Changes Induced by Large-Physical Disturbances Using Landscape Metrics, Spatial Sampling, Simulation and Spatial Analysis

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Hone-Jay Chu

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The objectives of the study are to integrate the conditional Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS and spatial analysis in remotely sensed images, to monitor the effects of large chronological disturbances on spatial characteristics of landscape changes including spatial heterogeneity and variability. The multiple NDVI images demonstrate that spatial patterns of disturbed landscapes were successfully delineated by spatial analysis such as variogram, Moran’I and landscape metrics in the study area. The hybrid method delineates the spatial patterns and spatial variability of landscapes caused by these large disturbances. The cLHS approach is applied to select samples from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI images from SPOT HRV images in the Chenyulan watershed of Taiwan, and then SGS with sufficient samples is used to generate maps of NDVI images. In final, the NDVI simulated maps are verified using indexes such as the correlation coefficient and mean absolute error (MAE. Therefore, the statistics and spatial structures of multiple NDVI images present a very robust behavior, which advocates the use of the index for the quantification of the landscape spatial patterns and land cover change. In addition, the results transferred by Open Geospatial techniques can be accessed from web-based and end-user applications of the watershed management.

Disturbance observer-based L1 robust tracking control for hypersonic vehicles with T-S disturbance modeling

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Yang Yi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This article concerns a disturbance observer-based L1 robust anti-disturbance tracking algorithm for the longitudinal models of hypersonic flight vehicles with different kinds of unknown disturbances. On one hand, by applying T-S fuzzy models to represent those modeled disturbances, a disturbance observer relying on T-S disturbance models can be constructed to track the dynamics of exogenous disturbances. On the other hand, L1 index is introduced to analyze the attenuation performance of disturbance for those unmodeled disturbances. By utilizing the existing convex optimization algorithm, a disturbance observer-based proportional-integral-controlled input is proposed such that the stability of hypersonic flight vehicles can be ensured and the tracking error for velocity and altitude in hypersonic flight vehicle models can converge to equilibrium point. Furthermore, the satisfactory disturbance rejection and attenuation with L1 index can be obtained simultaneously. Simulation results on hypersonic flight vehicle models can reflect the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm.

Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps: Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of geoelectric amplitude covering about half the continental United States are presented that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to an extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbances, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having a 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 min (1 h) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the northern-central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Québec during the March 1989 storm.

An intelligent active force control algorithm to control an upper extremity exoskeleton for motor recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Hasbullah Mohd Isa, Wan; Taha, Zahari; Mohd Khairuddin, Ismail; Majeed, Anwar P. P. Abdul; Fikri Muhammad, Khairul; Abdo Hashem, Mohammed; Mahmud, Jamaluddin; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2016-02-01

This paper presents the modelling and control of a two degree of freedom upper extremity exoskeleton by means of an intelligent active force control (AFC) mechanism. The Newton-Euler formulation was used in deriving the dynamic modelling of both the anthropometry based human upper extremity as well as the exoskeleton that consists of the upper arm and the forearm. A proportional-derivative (PD) architecture is employed in this study to investigate its efficacy performing joint-space control objectives. An intelligent AFC algorithm is also incorporated into the PD to investigate the effectiveness of this hybrid system in compensating disturbances. The Mamdani Fuzzy based rule is employed to approximate the estimated inertial properties of the system to ensure the AFC loop responds efficiently. It is found that the IAFC-PD performed well against the disturbances introduced into the system as compared to the conventional PD control architecture in performing the desired trajectory tracking.

Quantitative Motion Analysis of Tai Chi Chuan: The Upper Extremity Movement

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Tsung-Jung Ho

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The quantitative and reproducible analysis of the standard body movement in Tai Chi Chuan (TCC was performed in this study. We aimed to provide a reference of the upper extremities for standardizing TCC practice. Microsoft Kinect was used to record the motion during the practice of TCC. The preparation form and eight essential forms of TCC performed by an instructor and 101 practitioners were analyzed in this study. The instructor completed an entire TCC practice cycle and performed the cycle 12 times. An entire cycle of TCC was performed by practitioners and images were recorded for statistics analysis. The performance of the instructor showed high similarity (Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.71~0.84 to the first practice cycle. Among the 9 forms, lay form had the highest similarity (rmean=0.90 and push form had the lowest similarity (rmean=0.52. For the practitioners, ward off form (rmean=0.51 and roll back form (rmean=0.45 had the highest similarity with moderate correlation. We used Microsoft Kinect to record the spatial coordinates of the upper extremity joints during the practice of TCC and the data to perform quantitative and qualitative analysis of the joint positions and elbow joint angle.

Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

Science.gov (United States)

Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

Fragmentation increases wind disturbance impacts on forest structure and carbon stocks in a western Amazonian landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Naomi B; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Bedka, Kristopher M; Fernandes, Katia; Gutiérrez-Vélez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel A

2017-09-01

Tropical second-growth forests could help mitigate climate change, but the degree to which their carbon potential is achieved will depend on exposure to disturbance. Wind disturbance is common in tropical forests, shaping structure, composition, and function, and influencing successional trajectories. However, little is known about the impacts of extreme winds on second-growth forests in fragmented landscapes, though these ecosystems are often located in mosaics of forest, pasture, cropland, and other land cover types. Indirect evidence suggests that fragmentation increases risk of wind damage in tropical forests, but no studies have found such impacts following severe storms. In this study, we ask whether fragmentation and forest type (old vs. second growth) were associated with variation in wind damage after a severe convective storm in a fragmented production landscape in western Amazonia. We applied linear spectral unmixing to Landsat 8 imagery from before and after the storm, and combined it with field observations of damage to map wind effects on forest structure and biomass. We also used Landsat 8 imagery to map land cover with the goals of identifying old- and second-growth forest and characterizing fragmentation. We used these data to assess variation in wind disturbance across 95,596 ha of forest, distributed over 6,110 patches. We find that fragmentation is significantly associated with wind damage, with damage severity higher at forest edges and in edgier, more isolated patches. Damage was also more severe in old-growth than in second-growth forests, but this effect was weaker than that of fragmentation. These results illustrate the importance of considering landscape context in planning tropical forest restoration and natural regeneration projects. Assessments of long-term carbon sequestration potential need to consider spatial variation in disturbance exposure. Where risk of extreme winds is high, minimizing fragmentation and isolation could increase

A genome-wide analysis of putative functional and exonic variation associated with extremely high intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Spain, S L; Pedroso, I; Kadeva, N; Miller, M B; Iacono, W G; McGue, M; Stergiakouli, E; Davey Smith, G; Putallaz, M; Lubinski, D; Meaburn, E L; Plomin, R; Simpson, M A

2016-08-01

Although individual differences in intelligence (general cognitive ability) are highly heritable, molecular genetic analyses to date have had limited success in identifying specific loci responsible for its heritability. This study is the first to investigate exome variation in individuals of extremely high intelligence. Under the quantitative genetic model, sampling from the high extreme of the distribution should provide increased power to detect associations. We therefore performed a case-control association analysis with 1409 individuals drawn from the top 0.0003 (IQ >170) of the population distribution of intelligence and 3253 unselected population-based controls. Our analysis focused on putative functional exonic variants assayed on the Illumina HumanExome BeadChip. We did not observe any individual protein-altering variants that are reproducibly associated with extremely high intelligence and within the entire distribution of intelligence. Moreover, no significant associations were found for multiple rare alleles within individual genes. However, analyses using genome-wide similarity between unrelated individuals (genome-wide complex trait analysis) indicate that the genotyped functional protein-altering variation yields a heritability estimate of 17.4% (s.e. 1.7%) based on a liability model. In addition, investigation of nominally significant associations revealed fewer rare alleles associated with extremely high intelligence than would be expected under the null hypothesis. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that rare functional alleles are more frequently detrimental than beneficial to intelligence.

Comparison Of Power Quality Disturbances Classification Based On Neural Network

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Nway Nway Kyaw Win

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Power quality disturbances PQDs result serious problems in the reliability safety and economy of power system network. In order to improve electric power quality events the detection and classification of PQDs must be made type of transient fault. Software analysis of wavelet transform with multiresolution analysis MRA algorithm and feed forward neural network probabilistic and multilayer feed forward neural network based methodology for automatic classification of eight types of PQ signals flicker harmonics sag swell impulse fluctuation notch and oscillatory will be presented. The wavelet family Db4 is chosen in this system to calculate the values of detailed energy distributions as input features for classification because it can perform well in detecting and localizing various types of PQ disturbances. This technique classifies the types of PQDs problem sevents.The classifiers classify and identify the disturbance type according to the energy distribution. The results show that the PNN can analyze different power disturbance types efficiently. Therefore it can be seen that PNN has better classification accuracy than MLFF.

Analysis and evaluation of functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems: an integrated approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguli, S

1976-11-01

This paper introduces an integrated, objective and biomechanically sound approach for the analysis and evaluation of the functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems. The method is demonstrated here in its application to the unilateral lower extremity amputee-axillary crutches system and the unilateral below-knee amputee-PTB prosthesis system, both of which are commonly encountered in day-to-day rehabilitation practice.

Correlation of sleep disturbances, anxiety and depression in Croatian war veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Jevtović, Sasa; Gregurek, Rudolf; Kalenić, Barbara; Brajković, Lovorka; Bras, Marijana; Loncar, Mladen; Germain, Anne

2011-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the relationships between global sleep quality and its specific components and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptom severity questionnaire. We also researched whether sleep quality and sleep disturbances differed among groups of PTSD based on symptom severity categories. This study was conducted on the sample of 120 Croatian war veterans with PTSD. The following self-report instruments were used: Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index Addendum for PTSD, the Mississippi Scale for Combat-Related PTSD, the Spielberger State and Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory. There were statistically significant differences between the three PTSD severity groups on general nervousness (PSQI-A variable), where patients with extremely severe PTSD have more symptoms of general nervousness than groups with severe or moderate PTSD. Differences were found between PTSD severity groups in episodes of terror and acting-out dreams, where patients with extremely severe PTSD have more symptoms of episodes of terror and acting-out dreams than groups with severe or moderate PTSD. Sleep quality was significantly correlated with state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression, indicating that with decrease of anxiety and depression, sleep quality improves. Sleep latency was positively correlated with both state and trait anxiety. There wasn't any significant correlation between sleep latency and depression. Study suggests that sleep disturbances are equally severe across groups of veterans based on PTSD severity and that the severity of sleep disturbances is significantly related to severity of anxiety and depression symptoms.

Decoupling of microbial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling in response to extreme temperature events

Science.gov (United States)

Mooshammer, Maria; Hofhansl, Florian; Frank, Alexander H.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Hämmerle, Ieda; Leitner, Sonja; Schnecker, Jörg; Wild, Birgit; Watzka, Margarete; Keiblinger, Katharina M.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Richter, Andreas

2017-01-01

Predicted changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes urge a better mechanistic understanding of the stress response of microbially mediated carbon (C) and nutrient cycling processes. We analyzed the resistance and resilience of microbial C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling processes and microbial community composition in decomposing plant litter to transient, but severe, temperature disturbances, namely, freeze-thaw and heat. Disturbances led temporarily to a more rapid cycling of C and N but caused a down-regulation of P cycling. In contrast to the fast recovery of the initially stimulated C and N processes, we found a slow recovery of P mineralization rates, which was not accompanied by significant changes in community composition. The functional and structural responses to the two distinct temperature disturbances were markedly similar, suggesting that direct negative physical effects and costs associated with the stress response were comparable. Moreover, the stress response of extracellular enzyme activities, but not that of intracellular microbial processes (for example, respiration or N mineralization), was dependent on the nutrient content of the resource through its effect on microbial physiology and community composition. Our laboratory study provides novel insights into the mechanisms of microbial functional stress responses that can serve as a basis for field studies and, in particular, illustrates the need for a closer integration of microbial C-N-P interactions into climate extremes research. PMID:28508070

Age structure and disturbance legacy of North American forests

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Y. Pan

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Most forests of the world are recovering from a past disturbance. It is well known that forest disturbances profoundly affect carbon stocks and fluxes in forest ecosystems, yet it has been a great challenge to assess disturbance impacts in estimates of forest carbon budgets. Net sequestration or loss of CO₂ by forests after disturbance follows a predictable pattern with forest recovery. Forest age, which is related to time since disturbance, is a useful surrogate variable for analyses of the impact of disturbance on forest carbon. In this study, we compiled the first continental forest age map of North America by combining forest inventory data, historical fire data, optical satellite data and the dataset from NASA's Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS project. A companion map of the standard deviations for age estimates was developed for quantifying uncertainty. We discuss the significance of the disturbance legacy from the past, as represented by current forest age structure in different regions of the US and Canada, by analyzing the causes of disturbances from land management and nature over centuries and at various scales. We also show how such information can be used with inventory data for analyzing carbon management opportunities. By combining geographic information about forest age with estimated C dynamics by forest type, it is possible to conduct a simple but powerful analysis of the net CO₂ uptake by forests, and the potential for increasing (or decreasing this rate as a result of direct human intervention in the disturbance/age status. Finally, we describe how the forest age data can be used in large-scale carbon modeling, both for land-based biogeochemistry models and atmosphere-based inversion models, in order to improve the spatial accuracy of carbon cycle simulations.

Disturbance analysis of a free-piston engine generator using a validated fast-response numerical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia, Boru; Smallbone, Andrew; Mikalsen, Rikard; Feng, Huihua; Zuo, Zhengxing; Roskilly, Anthony Paul

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Different types of system disturbance with specific occurring times were identified. • The influence of each disturbance on the FPE system was characterised. • Technically feasible control variables were identified. • Control variable coupled with a system controller design was presented. - Abstract: In this paper, a fast-response numerical model was used to investigate potential disturbances to a free-piston engine generator (FPEG), i.e. engine cycle-to-cycle variations, misfire and immediate electric load change. During the engine operation, there could be one disturbance taking place or several disturbances take place simultaneously. By identifying different types of system disturbance with specific occurring times, the influence on the system was characterised. It was found that a step change of electric load would induce a corresponding top dead centre (TDC) step change. Low variations on piston TDC are observed when cycle-to-cycle variations take place. When unsuccessful ignition occurs, the engine will stop after one oscillation cycle. Reducing the electric load after misfire would cause more oscillation cycles and require a restart of the engine. Technically feasible control variables were identified and coupled with a PI feedback controller design to minimise the impact of each kind of disturbance, a design which could be used in future FPE control system designs. The controller performance was seen to be satisfactory for the electric load step change, and the piston TDC was controlled to back to the set point in 0.5 s.

Extreme learning machine for ranking: generalization analysis and applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hong; Peng, Jiangtao; Zhou, Yicong; Li, Luoqing; Pan, Zhibin

2014-05-01

The extreme learning machine (ELM) has attracted increasing attention recently with its successful applications in classification and regression. In this paper, we investigate the generalization performance of ELM-based ranking. A new regularized ranking algorithm is proposed based on the combinations of activation functions in ELM. The generalization analysis is established for the ELM-based ranking (ELMRank) in terms of the covering numbers of hypothesis space. Empirical results on the benchmark datasets show the competitive performance of the ELMRank over the state-of-the-art ranking methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

EMA beamline at SIRIUS: extreme condition X-ray methods of analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza Neto, Narcizo

2016-01-01

Full text: The EMA beamline (Extreme condition X-ray Methods of Analysis) is one of the hard x-ray undulator beamlines within the first phase of the new synchrotron source in Brazil (Sirius project). This beamline is thought to make a difference where a high brilliance (high flux of up to 2 x 10 14 photons/sec with beam size down to 0.5 x 0.5 μm 2 ) is essential, which is the case for extreme pressures that require small focus and time-resolved that require high photon flux. With that in mind we propose the beamline to have two experimental hutches to cover most of the extreme condition techniques today employed at synchrotron laboratories worldwide. These two stations are thought to provide the general infrastructure for magnets and lasers experiments, which may evolve as new scientific problems appear. In addition to the hutches, support laboratories will be strongly linked and supportive to the experiments at the beamline, covering high pressure instrumentations using diamond anvil cells and pump-and-probe requirements for ultrafast and high power lasers. Along these lines, we will describe the following techniques covered at this beamline: magnetic spectroscopy (XMCD) and scattering (XRMS) under high pressure and very low temperature in order to fully probe both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials and the dependence with pressure; extreme pressure and temperature XRD and XAS experiments using very small diamond culet anvils and high power lasers. (author)

EMA beamline at SIRIUS: extreme condition X-ray methods of analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souza Neto, Narcizo, E-mail: narcizo.souza@lnls.br [Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais (CNPEM), Campinas, SP (Brazil)

2016-07-01

Full text: The EMA beamline (Extreme condition X-ray Methods of Analysis) is one of the hard x-ray undulator beamlines within the first phase of the new synchrotron source in Brazil (Sirius project). This beamline is thought to make a difference where a high brilliance (high flux of up to 2 x 10{sup 14} photons/sec with beam size down to 0.5 x 0.5 μm{sup 2}) is essential, which is the case for extreme pressures that require small focus and time-resolved that require high photon flux. With that in mind we propose the beamline to have two experimental hutches to cover most of the extreme condition techniques today employed at synchrotron laboratories worldwide. These two stations are thought to provide the general infrastructure for magnets and lasers experiments, which may evolve as new scientific problems appear. In addition to the hutches, support laboratories will be strongly linked and supportive to the experiments at the beamline, covering high pressure instrumentations using diamond anvil cells and pump-and-probe requirements for ultrafast and high power lasers. Along these lines, we will describe the following techniques covered at this beamline: magnetic spectroscopy (XMCD) and scattering (XRMS) under high pressure and very low temperature in order to fully probe both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials and the dependence with pressure; extreme pressure and temperature XRD and XAS experiments using very small diamond culet anvils and high power lasers. (author)

Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

2012-01-01

by the Cluster spacecraft were best predicted by the 3-D model of Lin et al. (2010). The applied empirical bow shock models and the 3-D semi-empiric bow shock model combined with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solution proved to be insufficient for predicting the observed unusual bow shock locations during large...... interplanetary disturbances. The results of a global 3-D MHD model were in good agreement with the Cluster observations on 17 January 2005, but they did not predict the bow shock crossings on 31 October 2003....... of three magnetopause and four bow shock models which describe them in considerably different ways using statistical methods based on observations. A new 2-D magnetopause model is introduced (based on Verigin et al., 2009) which takes into account the pressure of the compressed magnetosheath field raised...

Sleep Disturbance During Smoking Cessation: Withdrawal or Side Effect of Treatment?

Science.gov (United States)

Ashare, Rebecca L; Lerman, Caryn; Tyndale, Rachel F; Hawk, Larry W; George, Tony P; Cinciripini, Paul; Schnoll, Robert A

2017-06-01

The nicotine-metabolite ratio (NMR) predicts treatment response and is related to treatment side effect severity. Sleep disturbance may be one important side effect, but understanding sleep disturbance effects on smoking cessation is complicated by the fact that nicotine withdrawal also produces sleep disturbance. To evaluate the effects of withdrawal and treatment side effects on sleep disturbance. This is a secondary analysis of data from a clinical trial (Lerman et al., 2015) of 1,136 smokers randomised to placebo ( n = 363), transdermal nicotine (TN; n = 381), or varenicline ( n = 392) and stratified based on NMR (559 slow metabolisers; 577 normal metabolisers). Sleep disturbance was assessed at baseline and at 1-week following the target quit date (TQD). We also examined whether sleep disturbance predicted 7-day point-prevalence abstinence at end-of-treatment (EOT). The varenicline and TN groups exhibited greater increases in sleep disturbance (vs. placebo; treatment × time interaction; p = 0.005), particularly among those who quit smoking at 1-week post-TQD. There was a main effect of NMR ( p = 0.04), but no interactions with treatment. TN and varenicline attenuated withdrawal symptoms unrelated to sleep (vs. placebo). Greater baseline sleep disturbance predicted relapse at EOT ( p = 0.004). Existing treatments may not mitigate withdrawal-related sleep disturbance and adjunctive treatments that target sleep disturbance may improve abstinence rates.

ANALYSIS OF DISTURBANCE TORQUE INFLUENCE ON CRITICAL STATE IN ROTATIONAL SYSTEMS

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Bogumił CHILIŃSKI

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Currently most of existing means of transport contains different types of rotational systems. In many cases the dynamics of such rotors substantially can influence exploitation of the whole vehicle. Moreover, in order to minimize mass of the whole object modern construction materials are applied. This causes that the dynamic phenomena may be fundamental of exploitation. The paper presents preliminary analysis of disturbance torque influence on critical state in rotational system. The consideration assumed simple physical object in the form of heavy disk embedded on weightless, elastic shaft. The shaft was supported on two bearings. In particular chapters of paper, path leading from proposition of physical model, by solution of it, to qualitative conclusions about considered object and torque disturbances influence of motion of this system, was presented. In introduction, outline of considered problem and potential opportunities of it, were demonstrated. In the next chapter, physical and mathematical model of the analysed object, was described. Next and also the last but one chapter gives a detailed discussion of mathematical model in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations proposed earlier. The first part of the chapter presents the possibility to solve such a problem, then it shows the simplifications which are used. Furthermore, the influence of used simplifications on the shape of analysed problem was demonstrated. Additionally, the possibility of equations solution presented in the paper was discussed. Moreover, the series of interesting properties of analysed system of equations has been shown based on founded approximate solutions. The whole paper was summarized with plans for future work and synthetic conclusions concerning the innovative control method of critical states.

Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

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Vasile George MARICA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

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Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

2014-01-01

How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

Modelling and control of an upper extremity exoskeleton for rehabilitation

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, Zahari; Majeed, Anwar P. P. Abdul; Tze, Mohd Yashim Wong Paul; Abdo Hashem, Mohammed; Mohd Khairuddin, Ismail; Azraai Mohd Razman, Mohd

2016-02-01

This paper presents the modelling and control of a two degree of freedom upper extremity exoskeleton for rehabilitation. The Lagrangian formulation was employed to obtain the dynamic modelling of both the anthropometric based human upper limb as well as the exoskeleton that comprises of the upper arm and the forearm. A proportional-derivative (PD) architecture is employed to investigate its efficacy performing a joint task trajectory tracking in performing flexion/extension on the elbow joint as well as the forward adduction/abduction on the shoulder joint. An active force control (AFC) algorithm is also incorporated into the aforementioned controller to examine its effectiveness in compensating disturbances. It was found from the study that the AFC-PD performed well against the disturbances introduced into the system without compromising its tracking performances as compared to the conventional PD control architecture.

Modelling and control of an upper extremity exoskeleton for rehabilitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taha, Zahari; Majeed, Anwar P.P. Abdul; Tze, Mohd Yashim Wong Paul; Hashem, Mohammed Abdo; Khairuddin, Ismail Mohd; Razman, Mohd Azraai Mohd

2016-01-01

This paper presents the modelling and control of a two degree of freedom upper extremity exoskeleton for rehabilitation. The Lagrangian formulation was employed to obtain the dynamic modelling of both the anthropometric based human upper limb as well as the exoskeleton that comprises of the upper arm and the forearm. A proportional-derivative (PD) architecture is employed to investigate its efficacy performing a joint task trajectory tracking in performing flexion/extension on the elbow joint as well as the forward adduction/abduction on the shoulder joint. An active force control (AFC) algorithm is also incorporated into the aforementioned controller to examine its effectiveness in compensating disturbances. It was found from the study that the AFC-PD performed well against the disturbances introduced into the system without compromising its tracking performances as compared to the conventional PD control architecture. (paper)

Analysis of Clinical Predictors of Resolution of Sleep Disturbance Related to Frequent Nighttime Heartburn and Acid Regurgitation Symptoms in Individuals Taking Esomeprazole 20 mg or Placebo.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, David A; Le Moigne, Anne; Li, Jing; Pollack, Charles; Nagy, Peter

2016-07-01

Sleep disturbances related to reflux symptoms have a significant impact on the daily lives of affected individuals. These analyses identified clinical factors related to resolution of reflux-related sleep disturbance in subjects treated with esomeprazole 20 mg for 14 days. Data from the first 14 days of 2 similar randomized, double-blind studies were pooled for subjects experiencing frequent heartburn and related sleep disturbances receiving esomeprazole 20 mg (n = 357) or placebo (n = 346). A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed with pooled and individual study data to evaluate relationships between clinical factors [treatment (esomeprazole vs. placebo), run-in sleep disturbance frequency, occurrence (yes/no) of 24-h, daytime, and nighttime heartburn (yes: ≥1 episode in 14-day treatment period)] and complete sleep disturbance resolution (no disturbances for 7 consecutive days). Absence of daytime (p = 0.0018) or nighttime (p heartburn during treatment was a significant predictor of complete sleep disturbance resolution at 14 days for the total population, while higher run-in sleep disturbance frequency (p heartburn during therapy, and esomeprazole treatment predicted complete reflux-related sleep disturbance resolution. The magnitude of therapeutic benefit for esomeprazole 20 mg over placebo increased with increasing baseline sleep disturbance.

Sleep Disturbance Following Concussion Is a Risk Factor for a Prolonged Recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Bramley, Harry; Henson, Alyssa; Lewis, Mechelle M; Kong, Lan; Stetter, Christy; Silvis, Matthew

2017-12-01

Sleep disturbance is a common problem following concussion. A retrospective chart review was conducted at a regional concussion clinic on patients 13 to 18 years of age between 2005 and 2011. Statistical analysis evaluated sleep disturbance and duration of concussion, as well as the use and effectiveness of melatonin. A total of 417 patients met inclusion criteria. One hundred twenty-three (34%) reported disturbance in sleep. There was no difference in sleep disturbance based on age, gender, or past number of concussions. Sleep disturbance was associated with a 3- to 4-fold increase in recovery time. Non-sport-related concussions were more likely to be associated with sleep disturbance compared to sport-related concussions (45% vs 29%, P = .01). Melatonin improved sleep disturbance in 67% of the patients. Evaluating sleep disorders following concussion is an important part of the assessment. These findings will help clinicians provide anticipatory guidance and treatment for adolescents recovering from concussion.

Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

2017-07-01

Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

Modelling of spatio-temporal precipitation relevant for urban hydrology with focus on scales, extremes and climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen

-correlation lengths for sub-daily extreme precipitation besides having too low intensities. Especially the wrong spatial correlation structure is disturbing from an urban hydrological point of view as short-term extremes will cover too much ground if derived directly from bias corrected regional climate model output...... of precipitation are compared and used to rank climate models with respect to performance metrics. The four different observational data sets themselves are compared at daily temporal scale with respect to climate indices for mean and extreme precipitation. Data density seems to be a crucial parameter for good...... happening in summer and most of the daily extremes in fall. This behaviour is in good accordance with reality where short term extremes originate in convective precipitation cells that occur when it is very warm and longer term extremes originate in frontal systems that dominate the fall and winter seasons...

Diagnostic orientation in control of disturbance situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, K.; Norros, L.

1993-01-01

The object of the study is diagnostic judgement in the control of dynamic processes. The starting point was the known difficulty process operators have in utilizing knowledge of process dynamics in disturbance situations that require both diagnostic and prognostic actions. A model of the diagnostic judgement process as a construction of coherent interpretation of the situation is outlined, and comprehensive data from simulated disturbance handling by 6 crews of a PWR type nuclear power plant was analysed. The phase of analysis included evaluation of the adequacy of task performance, utilization of available process information, and evaluation of the interpretation of disturbance situations. The results suggest that a functional orientation towards task performance allows a more coherent and comprehensive interpretation of the situation and more adequate task performance. Coherence of interpretation seems to be reflected in a higher subjective certainty compared with crews with an incoherent interpretation. (author). 15 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

Defining Disturbance for Microbial Ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Craig J

2017-08-01

Disturbance can profoundly modify the structure of natural communities. However, microbial ecologists' concept of "disturbance" has often deviated from conventional practice. Definitions (or implicit usage) have frequently included climate change and other forms of chronic environmental stress, which contradict the macrobiologist's notion of disturbance as a discrete event that removes biomass. Physical constraints and disparate biological characteristics were compared to ask whether disturbances fundamentally differ in microbial and macroorganismal communities. A definition of "disturbance" for microbial ecologists is proposed that distinguishes from "stress" and other competing terms, and that is in accord with definitions accepted by plant and animal ecologists.

Disturbance in dry coastal dunes in Denmark promotes diversity of plants and arthropods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brunbjerg, Ane Kirstine; Jørgensen, Gorm Pilgaard; Nielsen, Kristian Mandsberg

2015-01-01

of three disturbance types (burning, trampling and blowouts) on plant and arthropod species richness and composition in dry coastal dunes in Jutland, Denmark. Environmental variables, plant presence–absence and arthropod abundance were measured in 150 1 × 2 m plots along transects in blowouts, burned areas...... on plant and arthropod composition. Indicator species analysis revealed plant and arthropod species indicative for different disturbances. Plant and arthropod species richness and the number of annual plant species generally increased with disturbance, and plant and arthropod richness and composition...... responded differently to different disturbances. Arthropod communities were more diverse in disturbed plots and hosted species often found in early successional habitats of potential conservation value. Disturbance promoted β-diversity, but affected plants more than arthropods, likely because...

Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cattiaux, Julien

2010-01-01

Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

Analysis model for forecasting extreme temperature using refined rank set pair

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiao Ling-Xia

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the precision of forecasting extreme temperature time series, a refined rank set pair analysis model with a refined rank transformation function is proposed to improve precision of its prediction. The measured values of the annual highest temperature of two China’s cities, Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang, in July are taken to examine the performance of a refined rank set pair model.

The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

Science.gov (United States)

Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-03-01

The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

Number of Black Children in Extreme Poverty Hits Record High. Analysis Background.

Science.gov (United States)

Children's Defense Fund, Washington, DC.

To examine the experiences of black children and poverty, researchers conducted a computer analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, the source of official government poverty statistics. The data are through 2001. Results indicated that nearly 1 million black children were living in extreme poverty, with after-tax…

Assessing the short-term effects of an extreme storm on Mediterranean forest raptors

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, José E.; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Zuberogoitia, Iñigo; León-Ortega, Mario; Calvo, José F.

2013-04-01

Different species show different responses to natural disturbances, depending on their capacity to exploit the altered environment and occupy new niches. In the case of semi-arid Mediterranean areas, there is no information available on the response of bird communities to disturbance caused by extreme weather events. Here, we evaluate the short-term effects of a heavy snowfall and strong winds on three long-lived species of forest-dwelling raptor in a semi-arid Mediterranean region situated in the south-east of Spain. The loss of nests was significantly higher in the first and second years following the disturbance than in the third year. The three species studied exhibited great tolerance to the short-term effects of the storm since we found no differences in density or reproductive parameters between the nine breeding seasons prior to the disturbance and the three which immediately followed it. We suggest that the tolerance shown by these three species to windstorms in semi-arid Mediterranean zones could be an adaptive response, resulting from the climatic and human pressures which have prevailed from the Bronze Age to the present day.

Dynamic responses of a wind turbine drivetrain under turbulent wind and voltage disturbance conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengwu Li

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Wind energy is known as one of the most efficient clean renewable energy sources and has attracted extensive research interests in both academic and industry fields. In this study, the effects of turbulent wind and voltage disturbance on a wind turbine drivetrain are analyzed, and a wind turbine drivetrain dynamic model combined with the electric model of a doubly fed induction generator is established. The proposed model is able to account for the dynamic interaction between turbulent wind, voltage disturbance, and mechanical system. Also, the effects of time-varying meshing stiffness, transmission error, and bearing stiffness are included in the mechanical part of the coupled dynamic model. From the resultant model, system modes are computed. In addition, by considering the actual control strategies in the simulation process, the effects of turbulent wind and voltage disturbance on the geared rotor system are analyzed. The computational results show that the turbulent wind and voltage disturbance can cause adverse effects on the wind turbine drivetrain, especially the gearbox. A series of parametric studies are also performed to understand the influences of generator and gearbox parameters on the drivetrain system dynamics. Finally, the appropriate generator parameters having a positive effect on the gearbox in alleviating the extreme loads and the modeling approach for investigating the transient performance of generator are discussed.

Disturbing, Disordered or Disturbed? Perspectives on the Definition of Problem Behavior in Educational Settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Frank H., Ed.; Lakin, K. Charlie, Ed.

The book contains five papers presented at a 1979 topical conference on the definition of emotional disturbance and behavioral disorders in educational settings. The first paper, by F. Wood, is titled "Defining Disturbing, Disordered, and Disturbed Behavior." Topics covered include ambivalence about defining deviant behavior by special educators,…

Tensile Split Hopkinson Bar Technique: Numerical Analysis of the Problem of Wave Disturbance and Specimen Geometry Selection

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Panowicz Robert

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A method of tensile testing of materials in dynamic conditions based on a slightly modified compressive split Hopkinson bar system using a shoulder is described in this paper. The main goal was to solve, with the use of numerical modelling, the problem of wave disturbance resulting from application of a shoulder, as well as the problem of selecting a specimen geometry that enables to study the phenomenon of high strain-rate failure in tension. It is shown that, in order to prevent any interference of disturbance with the required strain signals at a given recording moment, the positions of the strain gages on the bars have to be correctly chosen for a given experimental setup. Besides, it is demonstrated that - on the basis of simplified numerical analysis - an appropriate gage length and diameter of a material specimen for failure testing in tension can be estimated.

Extreme value analysis of meteorological parameters observed during the period 1994-2001 at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramkumar, S.; Dole, M.L.; Nankar, D.P.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

2003-01-01

In the design of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand such situations. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site for the period 1994 -2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, maximum wind speed and gust, and maximum rainfall in a month, in a day, in an hour and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that annual rainfall, maximum monthly rainfall, minimum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 10 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -1 distribution whereas maximum daily rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall, maxinlum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 30 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -2 distribution function. There is no difference in correlation coefficients and fit both extreme value distribution function. Co-efficients of the distribution functions for each variable are established. Extreme values of parameters corresponding to return periods of 50 and 100 years are derived. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design basis values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in and around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

Contact Disturbances, Self-Esteem and Life Satisfaction of University Students: A Structural Equation Modelling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tagay, Özlem

2015-01-01

Problem Statement: A literature analysis revealed that contact disturbances, self-esteem and life satisfaction have been examined in different studies separately. In particular, the researchers observed that the studies conducted on Gestalt contact disturbances are limited in number. In this study, the variables of contact disturbances,…

Characteristics of autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

2012-08-15

Extremely high autumn and winter precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpege global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpege model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for extreme precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in extreme precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpege 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause extreme precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpege model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in extreme precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems. (orig.)

Nonlinear Disturbance Observer Based Robust Tracking Control of Pneumatic Muscle

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Youssif Mohamed Toum Elobaid

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Presently pneumatic muscles (PMs are used in various applications due to their simple construction, lightweight, and high force-to-weight ratio. However, pneumatic muscles are facing various problems due to their nonlinear characteristics and various uncertainties in real applications. To cope with the uncertainties and strong nonlinearity of a PM model, a nonlinear disturbance observer (NDO is designed to estimate the lumped disturbance. Based on the disturbance observer, the tracking control of PM is studied. Stability analysis based on Lyapunov method with respect to our proposed control law is discussed. The simulation results show the validity, effectiveness, and enhancing robustness of the proposed methods.

Stabilization analysis of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance

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Pengcheng HAN

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to enrich the system stability theory of the control theories, taking Euler-Bernoulli beam equation as the research subject, the stability of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance is studied. A feedback controller based on output is designed to reduce the effects of the disturbances. The well-posedness of the nonlinear closed-loop system is investigated by the theory of maximal monotone operator, namely the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the closed-loop system. An appropriate state space is established, an appropriate inner product is defined, and a non-linear operator satisfying this state space is defined. Then, the system is transformed into the form of evolution equation. Based on this, the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the closed-loop system are proved. The asymptotic stability of the system is studied by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, which proves the asymptotic stability of the closed-loop system. The result shows that designing proper anti-interference controller is the foundation of investigating the system stability, and the research of the stability of Euler-bernoulli beam equation with locally distributed disturbance can prove the asymptotic stability of the system. This method can be extended to study the other equations such as wave equation, Timoshenko beam equation, Schrodinger equation, etc.

Effects of different types of moderate severity disturbance on forest structural complexity and ecosystem functioning: A story of ice and fire

Science.gov (United States)

Fahey, R. T.; Atkins, J.; Gough, C. M.; Hardiman, B. S.; Haber, L.; Stuart-Haentjens, E.; David, O.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Duffy, M.

2017-12-01

Disturbances that alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems occur along a continuum of severity. In contrast to the extremes of the disturbance gradient (i.e., stand-replacing disturbance and small gap formation), moderate severity disturbances are poorly understood, even though they make up the majority of the gradient and their spatial extent (and likely overall importance to regional disturbance regimes) often exceeds that of more severe disturbances. Moderate severity disturbances originate from a variety of causes, such as fires, ice storms, or pest and pathogen outbreaks, and each of these could reshape structure and function in different ways. Observational data from a limited number of sites shows that moderate disturbance can increase ecosystem complexity, but the generality of this effect has not been tested across a broad range of disturbance types and severities. Here, we utilize data from a set of five case studies of experimental or natural moderate disturbance to assess the effects of different types and severities of disturbance on forest canopy structural complexity (CSC) and the relationship of canopy structure with ecosystem functioning. Using pre- and post-disturbance measures of CSC derived from aerial and terrestrial LiDAR, UAV imagery, and Landsat data we quantified changes in CSC following an experimental ice storm, a low-severity surface fire, Beech Bark Disease and Hemlock Wooly Adelgid outbreaks, and experimental accelerated succession. Our initial findings indicate that different disturbance types have highly variable effects on CSC, and also that progressive increases in disturbance severity alter CSC differently among disturbance types. Differential effects of variable disturbance types on CSC has implications for the carbon cycle, as forest structure is strongly linked with both growth-limiting resource (e.g., nutrients and light) acquisition and net primary productivity. Understanding how different types and severities of

A hybrid joint based controller for an upper extremity exoskeleton

Science.gov (United States)

Mohd Khairuddin, Ismail; Taha, Zahari; Majeed, Anwar P. P. Abdul; Hakeem Deboucha, Abdel; Azraai Mohd Razman, Mohd; Aziz Jaafar, Abdul; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2016-02-01

This paper presents the modelling and control of a two degree of freedom upper extremity exoskeleton. The Euler-Lagrange formulation was used in deriving the dynamic modelling of both the human upper limb as well as the exoskeleton that consists of the upper arm and the forearm. The human model is based on anthropometrical measurements of the upper limb. The proportional-derivative (PD) computed torque control (CTC) architecture is employed in this study to investigate its efficacy performing joint-space control objectives specifically in rehabilitating the elbow and shoulder joints along the sagittal plane. An active force control (AFC) algorithm is also incorporated into the PD-CTC to investigate the effectiveness of this hybrid system in compensating disturbances. It was found that the AFC- PD-CTC performs well against the disturbances introduced into the system whilst achieving acceptable trajectory tracking as compared to the conventional PD-CTC control architecture.

A hybrid joint based controller for an upper extremity exoskeleton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khairuddin, Ismail Mohd; Taha, Zahari; Majeed, Anwar P.P. Abdul; Deboucha, Abdel Hakeem; Razman, Mohd Azraai Mohd; Jaafar, Abdul Aziz; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2016-01-01

This paper presents the modelling and control of a two degree of freedom upper extremity exoskeleton. The Euler-Lagrange formulation was used in deriving the dynamic modelling of both the human upper limb as well as the exoskeleton that consists of the upper arm and the forearm. The human model is based on anthropometrical measurements of the upper limb. The proportional-derivative (PD) computed torque control (CTC) architecture is employed in this study to investigate its efficacy performing joint-space control objectives specifically in rehabilitating the elbow and shoulder joints along the sagittal plane. An active force control (AFC) algorithm is also incorporated into the PD-CTC to investigate the effectiveness of this hybrid system in compensating disturbances. It was found that the AFC- PD-CTC performs well against the disturbances introduced into the system whilst achieving acceptable trajectory tracking as compared to the conventional PD-CTC control architecture. (paper)

Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, W.L.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. E. Rieder

2010-10-01

Full Text Available In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs and high (termed EHOs total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima, and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss, and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Remote sensing of forest insect disturbances: Current state and future directions.

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Senf, Cornelius; Seidl, Rupert; Hostert, Patrick

2017-08-01

Insect disturbance are important agents of change in forest ecosystems around the globe, yet their spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics are not well understood. Remote sensing has gained much attention in mapping and understanding insect outbreak dynamics. Consequently, we here review the current literature on the remote sensing of insect disturbances. We suggest to group studies into three insect types: bark beetles, broadleaved defoliators, and coniferous defoliators. By so doing, we systematically compare the sensors and methods used for mapping insect disturbances within and across insect types. Results suggest that there are substantial differences between methods used for mapping bark beetles and defoliators, and between methods used for mapping broadleaved and coniferous defoliators. Following from this, we highlight approaches that are particularly suited for each insect type. Finally, we conclude by highlighting future research directions for remote sensing of insect disturbances. In particular, we suggest to: 1) Separate insect disturbances from other agents; 2) Extend the spatial and temporal domain of analysis; 3) Make use of dense time series; 4) Operationalize near-real time monitoring of insect disturbances; 5) Identify insect disturbances in the context of coupled human-natural systems; and 6) Improve reference data for assessing insect disturbances. Since the remote sensing of insect disturbances has gained much interest beyond the remote sensing community recently, the future developments identified here will help integrating remote sensing products into operational forest management. Furthermore, an improved spatiotemporal quantification of insect disturbances will support an inclusion of these processes into regional to global ecosystem models.

Steering disturbance rejection using a physics-based neuromusculoskeletal driver model

Science.gov (United States)

Mehrabi, Naser; Sharif Razavian, Reza; McPhee, John

2015-10-01

The aim of this work is to develop a comprehensive yet practical driver model to be used in studying driver-vehicle interactions. Drivers interact with their vehicle and the road through the steering wheel. This interaction forms a closed-loop coupled human-machine system, which influences the driver's steering feel and control performance. A hierarchical approach is proposed here to capture the complexity of the driver's neuromuscular dynamics and the central nervous system in the coordination of the driver's upper extremity activities, especially in the presence of external disturbance. The proposed motor control framework has three layers: the first (or the path planning) plans a desired vehicle trajectory and the required steering angles to perform the desired trajectory; the second (or the musculoskeletal controller) actuates the musculoskeletal arm to rotate the steering wheel accordingly; and the final layer ensures the precision control and disturbance rejection of the motor control units. The physics-based driver model presented here can also provide insights into vehicle control in relaxed and tensed driving conditions, which are simulated by adjusting the driver model parameters such as cognition delay and muscle co-contraction dynamics.

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis applies to tropical forests, but disturbance contributes little to tree diversity.

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Bongers, Frans; Poorter, Lourens; Hawthorne, William D; Sheil, Douglas

2009-08-01

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts local species diversity to be maximal at an intermediate level of disturbance. Developed to explain species maintenance and diversity patterns in species-rich ecosystems such as tropical forests, tests of IDH in tropical forest remain scarce, small-scale and contentious. We use an unprecedented large-scale dataset (2504 one-hectare plots and 331,567 trees) to examine whether IDH explains tree diversity variation within wet, moist and dry tropical forests, and we analyse the underlying mechanism by determining responses within functional species groups. We find that disturbance explains more variation in diversity of dry than wet tropical forests. Pioneer species numbers increase with disturbance, shade-tolerant species decrease and intermediate species are indifferent. While diversity indeed peaks at intermediate disturbance levels little variation is explained outside dry forests, and disturbance is less important for species richness patterns in wet tropical rain forests than previously thought.

Statistics of extremes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

2006-01-01

Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumagai, Hiroshi; Ohbu, Kouji; Ouchi, Choshichi; Isobe, Takeshi; Hori, Toshihiro; Ouchi, Eiji

1985-01-01

The outline of the solar activity during the period from June to September 1982 is given. During this period, several extremely developed active regions appeared on the solar disk and produced severe solar-terrestrial disturbances which we had not experienced since August 1972. In June and July, significant solar activities were brought about by the active regions 3763, 3776, and 3804. These regions frequently produced large flares of the highest class of importances in both Hsub(a) and X-ray intensities. However, the geomagnetic disturbances scarcely developed in June. The 3B/X7 flare on July 12 occurred in the region 3804 and caused the largest proton event and geomagnetic storm in this solar cycle. In August and September, flare occurrences were fewer than before. The 2B/M6 and 3N/M4 flares occurred in the region 3886 on September 4, and 2B/C9 flare occurred in the region 3907 on September 19. They are considered to cause two major geomagnetic storms which started on September 5 and 21, respectively. It seems remarkable that significant flares which occurred during these periods were produced by the same active region maintaining activities for more than ten solar rotations; 3776, 3804, and 3886 belonged to the same region in different solar rotations. (author)

Variants of early-onset restrictive eating disturbances in middle childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz, Susanne; van Dyck, Zoé; Dremmel, Daniela; Munsch, Simone; Hilbert, Anja

2016-01-01

This study sought to determine the factor structure of the newly developed self-report screening questionnaire Eating Disturbances in Youth-Questionnaire (EDY-Q) as well as to report the distribution of variants of early-onset restrictive eating disturbances characteristic of avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID) in a middle childhood population sample. Using the EDY-Q, a total of 1,444 children aged 8-13 years were screened in elementary schools in Switzerland via self-report. The factor analysis of the 12 items covering ARFID related symptoms was performed using a principal component analysis (PCA). The PCA showed a four factor solution, with clear allocation to the scales covering three variants of early-onset restrictive eating disturbances and weight problems. Inadequate overall food intake was reported by 19.3% of the children, a limited accepted amount of food by 26.1%, and food avoidance based on a specific underlying fear by 5.0%. The postulated factor structure of the EDY-Q was confirmed, further supporting the existence of distinct variants of early-onset restrictive eating disturbances. Avoidant/restrictive eating behavior seems to be a common experience in middle childhood, but results have to be confirmed using validated interviews. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A dendrochronological analysis of a disturbance-succession model for oak-pine forests of the Appalachian Mountains, USA

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Patrick H. Brose; Thomas A. Waldrop

2010-01-01

Disturbance-succession models describe the relationship between the disturbance regime and the dominant tree species of a forest type. Such models are useful tools in ecosystem management and restoration, provided they are accurate. We tested a disturbance-succession model for the oak-pine (Quercus spp. - Pinus spp.) forests of the...

Intertidal soft-sediment community does not respond to disturbance as postulated by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Gerwing, Travis G.; Allen Gerwing, Alyssa M.; Macdonald, Tara; Cox, Kieran; Juanes, Francis; Dudas, Sarah E.

2017-11-01

The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH) predicts that disturbances of an intermediate frequency or intensity will maximize community biodiversity/richness. Once almost universally accepted, controversy now surrounds this hypothesis, and there have even been calls for its abandonment. Therefore, we experimentally evaluated if an infaunal community along the north coast of British Columbia, Canada, would respond to disturbances as predicted by the IDH. The characteristics of this soft-sediment intertidal mudflat (productivity, species pool, population growth rate) maximized our chances of finding evidence to support the IDH. More specifically, we tested if intermediate severities and frequencies of disturbance maximized infaunal community richness by mechanically disturbing sediment, and varying the intensity (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the surface area of a plot disturbed) and frequency of sediment disturbance (never, once, twice, and every week during a four week period). No effect of frequency or intensity of sediment disturbance on community richness was observed. Further, none of our experimental treatments were statistically different than the controls. This is likely due to the subtle difference between successional stages in this soft-sediment habitat (difference of less than one taxa between treatments). Therefore, in habitats whose productivity, regional species pool, and population growth rates would otherwise suggest a response to disturbances as predicted by the IDH, minor differences between successional stages may result in richness patterns that deviate from those predicted by the IDH.

Climate change and forest disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

2001-01-01

This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

Optimally growing boundary layer disturbances in a convergent nozzle preceded by a circular pipe

Science.gov (United States)

Uzun, Ali; Davis, Timothy B.; Alvi, Farrukh S.; Hussaini, M. Yousuff

2017-06-01

We report the findings from a theoretical analysis of optimally growing disturbances in an initially turbulent boundary layer. The motivation behind this study originates from the desire to generate organized structures in an initially turbulent boundary layer via excitation by disturbances that are tailored to be preferentially amplified. Such optimally growing disturbances are of interest for implementation in an active flow control strategy that is investigated for effective jet noise control. Details of the optimal perturbation theory implemented in this study are discussed. The relevant stability equations are derived using both the standard decomposition and the triple decomposition. The chosen test case geometry contains a convergent nozzle, which generates a Mach 0.9 round jet, preceded by a circular pipe. Optimally growing disturbances are introduced at various stations within the circular pipe section to facilitate disturbance energy amplification upstream of the favorable pressure gradient zone within the convergent nozzle, which has a stabilizing effect on disturbance growth. Effects of temporal frequency, disturbance input and output plane locations as well as separation distance between output and input planes are investigated. The results indicate that optimally growing disturbances appear in the form of longitudinal counter-rotating vortex pairs, whose size can be on the order of several times the input plane mean boundary layer thickness. The azimuthal wavenumber, which represents the number of counter-rotating vortex pairs, is found to generally decrease with increasing separation distance. Compared to the standard decomposition, the triple decomposition analysis generally predicts relatively lower azimuthal wavenumbers and significantly reduced energy amplification ratios for the optimal disturbances.

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

A method to identify aperiodic disturbances in the ionosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.-S.; Chen, Z.; Huang, C.-M.

2014-05-01

In this paper, variations in the ionospheric F2 layer's critical frequency are decomposed into their periodic and aperiodic components. The latter include disturbances caused both by geophysical impacts on the ionosphere and random noise. The spectral whitening method (SWM), a signal-processing technique used in statistical estimation and/or detection, was used to identify aperiodic components in the ionosphere. The whitening algorithm adopted herein is used to divide the Fourier transform of the observed data series by a real envelope function. As a result, periodic components are suppressed and aperiodic components emerge as the dominant contributors. Application to a synthetic data set based on significant simulated periodic features of ionospheric observations containing artificial (and, hence, controllable) disturbances was used to validate the SWM for identification of aperiodic components. Although the random noise was somewhat enhanced by post-processing, the artificial disturbances could still be clearly identified. The SWM was then applied to real ionospheric observations. It was found to be more sensitive than the often-used monthly median method to identify geomagnetic effects. In addition, disturbances detected by the SWM were characterized by a Gaussian-type probability density function over all timescales, which further simplifies statistical analysis and suggests that the disturbances thus identified can be compared regardless of timescale.

Managing forest disturbances and community responses: lessons from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtney G. Flint; Richard. Haynes

2006-01-01

Managing forest disturbances can be complicated by diverse human community responses. Interview and quantitative analysis of mail surveys were used to assess risk perceptions and community actions in response to forest disturbance by spruce bark beetles. Despite high risk perception of immediate threats to personal safety and property, risk perceptions of broader...

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Tracking control of time-varying knee exoskeleton disturbed by interaction torque.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhan; Ma, Wenhao; Yin, Ziguang; Guo, Hongliang

2017-11-01

Knee exoskeletons have been increasingly applied as assistive devices to help lower-extremity impaired people to make their knee joints move through providing external movement compensation. Tracking control of knee exoskeletons guided by human intentions often encounters time-varying (time-dependent) issues and the disturbance interaction torque, which may dramatically put an influence up on their dynamic behaviors. Inertial and viscous parameters of knee exoskeletons can be estimated to be time-varying due to unexpected mechanical vibrations and contact interactions. Moreover, the interaction torque produced from knee joint of wearers has an evident disturbance effect on regular motions of knee exoskeleton. All of these points can increase difficultly of accurate control of knee exoskeletons to follow desired joint angle trajectories. This paper proposes a novel control strategy for controlling knee exoskeleton with time-varying inertial and viscous coefficients disturbed by interaction torque. Such designed controller is able to make the tracking error of joint angle of knee exoskeletons exponentially converge to zero. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is robust to guarantee the tracking error bounded when the interaction torque exists. Illustrative simulation and experiment results are presented to show efficiency of the proposed controller. Additionally, comparisons with gradient dynamic (GD) approach and other methods are also presented to demonstrate efficiency and superiority of the proposed control strategy for tracking joint angle of knee exoskeleton. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu, Xuanlu M.; Louie, Alexander V.; Ashman, Jonathan; Wasif, Nabil

2017-01-01

Purpose: Surgery combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the cornerstone of multidisciplinary management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Although RT can be given in either the preoperative or the postoperative setting with similar local recurrence and survival outcomes, the side effect profiles, costs, and long-term functional outcomes are different. The aim of this study was to use decision analysis to determine optimal sequencing of RT with surgery in patients with extremity STS. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a state transition Markov model, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome. A time horizon of 5 years, a cycle length of 3 months, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY was used. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the thresholds at which each strategy would be preferred. The robustness of the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Preoperative RT is a more cost-effective strategy ($26,633/3.00 QALYs) than postoperative RT ($28,028/2.86 QALYs) in our base case scenario. Preoperative RT is the superior strategy with either 3-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT. One-way sensitivity analyses identified the relative risk of chronic adverse events as having the greatest influence on the preferred timing of RT. The likelihood of preoperative RT being the preferred strategy was 82% on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative RT is more cost effective than postoperative RT in the management of resectable extremity STS, primarily because of the higher incidence of chronic adverse events with RT in the postoperative setting.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qu, Xuanlu M. [Department of Oncology, Queen' s University, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Louie, Alexander V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Health Sciences Center, London, Ontario (Canada); Ashman, Jonathan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona (United States); Wasif, Nabil, E-mail: wasif.nabil@mayo.edu [Department of General Surgery, Mayo Clinic Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona (United States)

2017-02-01

Purpose: Surgery combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the cornerstone of multidisciplinary management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Although RT can be given in either the preoperative or the postoperative setting with similar local recurrence and survival outcomes, the side effect profiles, costs, and long-term functional outcomes are different. The aim of this study was to use decision analysis to determine optimal sequencing of RT with surgery in patients with extremity STS. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a state transition Markov model, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome. A time horizon of 5 years, a cycle length of 3 months, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY was used. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the thresholds at which each strategy would be preferred. The robustness of the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Preoperative RT is a more cost-effective strategy ($26,633/3.00 QALYs) than postoperative RT ($28,028/2.86 QALYs) in our base case scenario. Preoperative RT is the superior strategy with either 3-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT. One-way sensitivity analyses identified the relative risk of chronic adverse events as having the greatest influence on the preferred timing of RT. The likelihood of preoperative RT being the preferred strategy was 82% on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative RT is more cost effective than postoperative RT in the management of resectable extremity STS, primarily because of the higher incidence of chronic adverse events with RT in the postoperative setting.

Postradiation disturbances of neuroendocrinal interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dedov, V.I.

1980-01-01

Analysis of data on the disturbances induced by ionizing irradiation in endocrine organs is given on the basis of experimental material. Mechanism and dynamics of the radiation pathology of such organs of endocrine system as hypothalamus, hypophysis, adrenal glands, thyroid, gonads are considered. Necessity of the determination of criteria of injury significance and study of delayed effects of ionizing radiation in perspective investigation of the problems of endocrine radiation pathology is pointed out

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

Connectomic disturbances in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a whole-brain tractography analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Soon-Beom; Zalesky, Andrew; Fornito, Alex; Park, Subin; Yang, Young-Hui; Park, Min-Hyeon; Song, In-Chan; Sohn, Chul-Ho; Shin, Min-Sup; Kim, Bung-Nyun; Cho, Soo-Churl; Han, Doug Hyun; Cheong, Jae Hoon; Kim, Jae-Won

2014-10-15

Few studies have sought to identify, in a regionally unbiased way, the precise cortical and subcortical regions that are affected by white matter abnormalities in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study aimed to derive a comprehensive, whole-brain characterization of connectomic disturbances in ADHD. Using diffusion tensor imaging, whole-brain tractography, and an imaging connectomics approach, we characterized altered white matter connectivity in 71 children and adolescents with ADHD compared with 26 healthy control subjects. White matter differences were further delineated between patients with (n = 40) and without (n = 26) the predominantly hyperactive/impulsive subtype of ADHD. A significant network comprising 25 distinct fiber bundles linking 23 different brain regions spanning frontal, striatal, and cerebellar brain regions showed altered white matter structure in ADHD patients (p attentional disturbances. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder subtypes were differentiated by a right-lateralized network (p attentional performance underscore the functional importance of these connectomic disturbances for the clinical phenotype of ADHD. A distributed pattern of white matter microstructural integrity separately involving frontal, striatal, and cerebellar brain regions, rather than direct frontostriatal connectivity, appears to be disrupted in children and adolescents with ADHD. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Visually Determined Soil Disturbance Classes Used as Indices of Forest Harvesting Disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

W. Michael Aust; James A. Burger; Emily A. Carter; David P. Preston; Steven C. Patterson

1998-01-01

Visual estimates of soil and site disturbances are used by foresters, soil scientists, logging supervisors. and machinery operators to minimize harvest disturbances to forest sites, to evaluate compliance with forestry Best Management Practices (BMPs), and to determine the need for ameliorative practices such as tnechanical site preparation. Although estimates are...

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

2017-12-01

We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

Influence of turbulence, orientation, and site configuration on the response of buildings to extreme wind.

Science.gov (United States)

Aly, Aly Mousaad

2014-01-01

Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings.

Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabio Dentale

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS, generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.

Automated attribution of remotely-sensed ecological disturbances using spatial and temporal characteristics of common disturbance classes.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, L. A.; Ballantyne, A.

2017-12-01

Forest disturbances are critical components of ecosystems. Knowledge of their prevalence and impacts is necessary to accurately describe forest health and ecosystem services through time. While there are currently several methods available to identify and describe forest disturbances, especially those which occur in North America, the process remains inefficient and inaccessible in many parts of the world. Here, we introduce a preliminary approach to streamline and automate both the detection and attribution of forest disturbances. We use a combination of the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) detection algorithm to detect disturbances in combination with supervised and unsupervised classification algorithms to attribute the detections to disturbance classes. Both spatial and temporal disturbance characteristics are derived and utilized for the goal of automating the disturbance attribution process. The resulting preliminary algorithm is applied to up-scaled (100m) Landsat data for several different ecosystems in North America, with varying success. Our results indicate that supervised classification is more reliable than unsupervised classification, but that limited training data are required for a region. Future work will improve the algorithm through refining and validating at sites within North America before applying this approach globally.

Sleep Disturbances in Mood Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Rumble, Meredith E; White, Kaitlin Hanley; Benca, Ruth M

2015-12-01

The article provides an overview of common and differentiating self-reported and objective sleep disturbances seen in mood-disordered populations. The importance of considering sleep disturbances in the context of mood disorders is emphasized, because a large body of evidence supports the notion that sleep disturbances are a risk factor for onset, exacerbation, and relapse of mood disorders. In addition, potential mechanisms for sleep disturbance in depression, other primary sleep disorders that often occur with mood disorders, effects of antidepressant and mood-stabilizing drugs on sleep, and the adjunctive effect of treating sleep in patients with mood disorders are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

Science.gov (United States)

Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

Stoichiometric and kinetic analysis of extreme halophilic Archaea on various substrates in a corrosion resistant bioreactor.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorantfy, Bettina; Seyer, Bernhard; Herwig, Christoph

2014-01-25

Extreme halophilic Archaea are extremophile species which can thrive in hypersaline environments of up to 3-5 M sodium chloride concentration. Although their ecology and physiology are widely identified on the microbiological level, little emphasis has been laid on quantitative bioprocess development with extreme halophiles. The goal of this study was to establish, on the one hand, a methodological basis for quantitative bioprocess analysis of extreme halophilic Archaea with an extreme halophilic strain as an example. Firstly, as a novel usage, a corrosion resistant bioreactor setup for extreme halophiles has been implemented. Then, paying special attention to total bioprocess quantification approaches, an indirect method for biomass quantification using on-line process signals was introduced. Subsequently, robust quantitative data evaluation methods for halophiles could be developed, providing defined and controlled cultivation conditions in the bioreactor and therefore obtaining suitable quality of on-line as well as off-line datasets. On the other hand, new physiological results of extreme halophiles in bioreactor have also been obtained based on the quantitative methodological tools. For the first time, quantitative data on stoichiometry and kinetics were collected and evaluated on different carbon sources. The results on various substrates were interpreted, with proposed metabolic mechanisms, by linking to the reported primary carbon metabolism of extreme halophilic Archaea. Moreover, results of chemostat cultures demonstrated that extreme halophilic organisms show Monod-kinetics on different sole carbon sources. A diauxic growth pattern was described on a mixture of substrates in batch cultivations. In addition, the methodologies presented here enable one to characterize the utilized strain Haloferax mediterranei (HFX) as a potential new host organism. Thus, this study offers a strong methodological basis as well as a fundamental physiological assessment for

Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis of NPP Communication Bridge Resistance Due to Extreme Loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Králik Juraj

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the experiences from the deterministic and probability analysis of the reliability of communication bridge structure resistance due to extreme loads - wind and earthquake. On the example of the steel bridge between two NPP buildings is considered the efficiency of the bracing systems. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the structure resistance are discussed. The advantages of the utilization the LHS method to analyze the safety and reliability of the structures is presented

Analysis of stress corrosion data by means of the statistic of extreme values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imarisio, G.; Lanza, F.

1978-01-01

The possibility of examining stress corosion by means of extreme statistic was proposed. A series of test in boiling MgCl 2 of samples made on AISI 304 have been performed. Evolution of cracks dimension and time of life of samples was followed. It has been shown that the dimensions of the maximum cracks on the sample corroded for different times can be organized following the extreme values statistic. Also the life time of sample can be treated in the same way. A confirmation has been obtained using data taken from literature. Possible uses of predictions obtained with this type of analysis have been underlined. An extension of the toward less corrosive media and samples of several volumes is suggested to check the validity of the method

Detection and classification of power quality disturbances using S-transform and modular neural network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhende, C.N.; Mishra, S.; Panigrahi, B.K. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi 110016 (India)

2008-01-15

This paper presents an S-transform based modular neural network (NN) classifier for recognition of power quality disturbances. The excellent time - frequency resolution characteristics of the S-transform makes it an attractive candidate for the analysis of power quality (PQ) disturbances under noisy condition and has the ability to detect the disturbance correctly. On the other hand, the performance of wavelet transform (WT) degrades while detecting and localizing the disturbances in the presence of noise. Features extracted by using the S-transform are applied to a modular NN for automatic classification of the PQ disturbances that solves a relatively complex problem by decomposing it into simpler subtasks. Modularity of neural network provides better classification, model complexity reduction and better learning capability, etc. Eleven types of PQ disturbances are considered for the classification. The simulation results show that the combination of the S-transform and a modular NN can effectively detect and classify different power quality disturbances. (author)

PM10 Analysis for Three Industrialized Areas using Extreme Value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasfazilah Ahmat; Ahmad Shukri Yahaya; Nor Azam Ramli; Hasfazilah Ahmat

2015-01-01

One of the concerns of the air pollution studies is to compute the concentrations of one or more pollutants' species in space and time in relation to the independent variables, for instance emissions into the atmosphere, meteorological factors and parameters. One of the most significant statistical disciplines developed for the applied sciences and many other disciplines for the last few decades is the extreme value theory (EVT). This study assesses the use of extreme value distributions of the two-parameter Gumbel, two and three-parameter Weibull, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and two and three-parameter Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) on the maximum concentration of daily PM10 data recorded in the year 2010 - 2012 in Pasir Gudang, Johor; Bukit Rambai, Melaka; and Nilai, Negeri Sembilan. Parameters for all distributions are estimated using the Method of Moments (MOM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). Six performance indicators namely; the accuracy measures which include predictive accuracy (PA), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Index of Agreement (IA) and error measures that consist of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Normalized Absolute Error (NAE) are used to find the goodness-of-fit of the distribution. The best distribution is selected based on the highest accuracy measures and the smallest error measures. The results showed that the GEV is the best fit for daily maximum concentration for PM10 for all monitoring stations. The analysis also demonstrates that the estimated numbers of days in which the concentration of PM10 exceeded the Malaysian Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (MAAQG) of 150 mg/ m"3 are between 1/2 and 11/2 days. (author)

Surface disturbances: their role in accelerating desertification

Science.gov (United States)

Belnap, Jayne

1995-01-01

Maintaining soil stability and normal water and nutrient cycles in desert systems is critical to avoiding desertification. These particular ecosystem processes are threatened by trampling of livestock and people, and by off-road vehicle use. Soil compaction and disruption of cryptobiotic soil surfaces (composed of cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses) can result in decreased water availability to vascular plants through decreased water infiltration and increased albedo with possible decreased precipitation. Surface disturbance may also cause accelerated soil loss through wind and water erosion and decreased diversity and abundance of soil biota. In addition, nutrient cycles can be altered through lowered nitrogen and carbon inputs and slowed decomposition of soil organic matter, resulting in lower nutrient levels in associated vascular plants. Some cold desert systems may be especially susceptible to these disruptions due to the paucity of surface-rooting vascular plants for soil stabilization, fewer nitrogen-fixing higher plants, and lower soil temperatures, which slow nutrient cycles. Desert soils may recover slowly from surface disturbances, resulting in increased vulnerability to desertification. Recovery from compaction and decreased soil stability is estimated to take several hundred years. Re-establishment rates for soil bacterial and fungal populations are not known. The nitrogen fixation capability of soil requires at least 50 years to recover. Recovery of crusts can be hampered by large amounts of moving sediment, and re-establishment can be extremely difficult in some areas. Given the sensitivity of these resources and slow recovery times, desertification threatens million of hectares of semiarid lands in the United States.

State Estimation of International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor With Incomplete Knowledge of Disturbance Inputs

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Michael J.

2005-01-01

This thesis develops a state estimation algorithm for the Centrifuge Rotor (CR) system where only relative measurements are available with limited knowledge of both rotor imbalance disturbances and International Space Station (ISS) thruster disturbances. A Kalman filter is applied to a plant model augmented with sinusoidal disturbance states used to model both the effect of the rotor imbalance and the 155 thrusters on the CR relative motion measurement. The sinusoidal disturbance states compensate for the lack of the availability of plant inputs for use in the Kalman filter. Testing confirms that complete disturbance modeling is necessary to ensure reliable estimation. Further testing goes on to show that increased estimator operational bandwidth can be achieved through the expansion of the disturbance model within the filter dynamics. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis shows the varying levels of robustness against defined plant/filter uncertainty variations.

Distributed Optimization for a Class of Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Disturbance Rejection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Ji, Haibo

2016-07-01

The paper studies the distributed optimization problem for a class of nonlinear multiagent systems in the presence of external disturbances. To solve the problem, we need to achieve the optimal multiagent consensus based on local cost function information and neighboring information and meanwhile to reject local disturbance signals modeled by an exogenous system. With convex analysis and the internal model approach, we propose a distributed optimization controller for heterogeneous and nonlinear agents in the form of continuous-time minimum-phase systems with unity relative degree. We prove that the proposed design can solve the exact optimization problem with rejecting disturbances.

Deep learning for classification of islanding and grid disturbance based on multi-resolution singular spectrum entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tie; He, Xiaoyang; Tang, Junci; Zeng, Hui; Zhou, Chunying; Zhang, Nan; Liu, Hui; Lu, Zhuoxin; Kong, Xiangrui; Yan, Zheng

2018-02-01

Forasmuch as the distinguishment of islanding is easy to be interfered by grid disturbance, island detection device may make misjudgment thus causing the consequence of photovoltaic out of service. The detection device must provide with the ability to differ islanding from grid disturbance. In this paper, the concept of deep learning is introduced into classification of islanding and grid disturbance for the first time. A novel deep learning framework is proposed to detect and classify islanding or grid disturbance. The framework is a hybrid of wavelet transformation, multi-resolution singular spectrum entropy, and deep learning architecture. As a signal processing method after wavelet transformation, multi-resolution singular spectrum entropy combines multi-resolution analysis and spectrum analysis with entropy as output, from which we can extract the intrinsic different features between islanding and grid disturbance. With the features extracted, deep learning is utilized to classify islanding and grid disturbance. Simulation results indicate that the method can achieve its goal while being highly accurate, so the photovoltaic system mistakenly withdrawing from power grids can be avoided.

Propagation of disturbances as voltage fluctuations in transmission networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Albert Hermina

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Significant changes occurred in the power system in Romania in recent years by reducing the power used in the system, the number of classic power sources in operation as well as by implementing renewable energy sources, have determined short circuit power reduction (node rigidity in the points where disturbing users are connected, that in the absence of adequate measures, result in disturbances above acceptable levels. The paper analyzes two power systems areas in which are connected users that cause voltage fluctuation. Disturbances as voltage fluctuations resulting in these nodes may exceed the acceptable values and can spread in the transmission network affecting power quality over large system areas. The analysis conducted reveals the influence of short circuit power in nodes where these users are connected and highlights the fact that in some cases (e.g. lines out of operation for maintenance, shutdown of classic units in the area the disturbances in the transmission network sent to the users at lower voltages may have values above those allowed. Technical Code of existing power transmission network makes no reference to voltage fluctuations, as a rule, in the electricity transmission network was considered that this phenomenon should not exist.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

Carbon redistribution by erosion processes in an intensively disturbed catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Boix-Fayos, Carolina; Martínez-Mena, María; Pérez Cutillas, Pedro; de Vente, Joris; Barberá, Gonzalo G.; Mosch, Wouter; Navarro Cano, Jose Antonio; Gaspar, Leticia; Navas, Ana

2016-04-01

Understanding how organic carbon moves with sediments along the fluvial system is crucial to close catchment scale carbon budgets. Especially challenging is the analysis of organic carbon dynamics during fluvial transport in heterogeneous, fragile and disturbed environments with ephemeral and intense hydrological pulses, typical of Mediterranean conditions. This paper explores the catchment scale organic carbon redistribution by lateral flows in extreme Mediterranean environmental conditions from a geomorphological perspective. The study area is a catchment (Cárcavo) in SE Spain with a semiarid climate, erodible lithologies, shallow soils, and highly disturbed by agricultural terraces, land levelling, reforestations and construction of check-dams. To increase understanding of erosion induced catchment scale organic carbon redistribution, we studied the subcatchments of 8 check-dams distributed along the catchment main channel in detail. We determined 137Cs, physicochemical characteristics and organic carbon pools of soils and sediments deposited behind each check-dam, performed spatial analysis of properties of the catchment and buffer areas around check-dams, and carried out geomorphological analysis of the slope-channel connections. Soils showed very low Total Organic Carbon (TOC) values oscillating between 15.2 and 4.4 g Kg-1 for forest and agricultural soils, respectively. Sediments mobilized by erosion were poor in TOC compared to the eroded (forest) soils (6.6±0.7 g Kg-1), and the redistribution of organic carbon through the catchment, especially of the Mineral Associated Organic Carbon (MAC) pool, showed the same pattern as clay particles and 137Cs. The TOC erosion rates (0.031±0.03 Mg ha-1 y-1) were comparable to others reported for subhumid Mediterranean catchments and to those modelled worldwide for pasture land. Those lateral fluxes were equivalent to 10.4 % of the TOC stock from the topsoil at the moment of the check-dam construction and

Disturbance Decoupling of Switched Linear Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yurtseven, E.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Camlibel, M.K.

2010-01-01

In this paper we consider disturbance decoupling problems for switched linear systems. We will provide necessary and sufficient conditions for three different versions of disturbance decoupling, which differ based on which signals are considered to be the disturbance. In the first version the

Nonlinear modeling and stability analysis of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel under load disturbance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Wencheng; Yang, Jiandong; Wang, Mingjiang; Lai, Xu

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Novel nonlinear mathematical model of hydro-turbine governing system is proposed. • Hopf bifurcation analysis on the governing system is conducted. • Stability of the system under load disturbance is studied. • Influence of four factors on stability is analyzed. • Optimization methods of improving system stability are put forward. - Abstract: In order to overcome the problem of nonlinear dynamics of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel, which is caused by the interface movement of the free surface-pressurized flow in the tailrace tunnel, and the difficulty of analyzing the stability of system, this paper uses the Hopf bifurcation theory to study the stability of hydro-turbine governing system of hydropower station with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel. Firstly, a novel and rational nonlinear mathematical model of the hydro-turbine governing system is proposed. This model contains the dynamic equation of pipeline system which can accurately describe the motion characteristics of the interface of free surface-pressurized flow in sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel. According to the nonlinear mathematical model, the existence and direction of Hopf bifurcation of the nonlinear dynamic system are analyzed. Furthermore, the algebraic criterion of the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation is derived. Then the stability domain and bifurcation diagram of hydro-turbine governing system are drawn by the algebraic criterion, and the characteristics of stability under different state parameters are investigated. Finally, the influence of step load value, ceiling slope angle and section form of tailrace tunnel and water depth at the interface in tailrace tunnel on stability are analyzed based on stable domain. The results indicate that: The Hopf bifurcation of hydro-turbine governing system with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel is supercritical. The phase space trajectories of characteristic variables stabilize at the equilibrium points

Patterns of precipitation and soil moisture extremes in Texas, US: A complex network analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Xia, Youlong; Caldwell, Todd G.; Hao, Zengchao

2018-02-01

Understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation not only improves prediction skills, but also helps to prioritize hazard mitigation efforts. This study seeks to enhance the understanding of spatiotemporal covariation patterns embedded in precipitation (P) and soil moisture (SM) by using an event-based, complex-network-theoretic approach. Events concurrences are quantified using a nonparametric event synchronization measure, and spatial patterns of hydroclimate variables are analyzed by using several network measures and a community detection algorithm. SM-P coupling is examined using a directional event coincidence analysis measure that takes the order of event occurrences into account. The complex network approach is demonstrated for Texas, US, a region possessing a rich set of hydroclimate features and is frequented by catastrophic flooding. Gridded daily observed P data and simulated SM data are used to create complex networks of P and SM extremes. The uncovered high degree centrality regions and community structures are qualitatively in agreement with the overall existing knowledge of hydroclimate extremes in the study region. Our analyses provide new visual insights on the propagation, connectivity, and synchronicity of P extremes, as well as the SM-P coupling, in this flood-prone region, and can be readily used as a basis for event-driven predictive analytics for other regions.

Systematic analysis of plant disturbances with a view to reducing scram frequency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laakso, K.J.

1984-01-01

The goal of this project is to improve plant safety and reliability in Swedish BWRs by reducing the frequency of reactor scrams. The history of plant disturbances leading to reactor scrams and turbine trips in five Swedish nuclear power units was reviewed and the contributing causes were carefully analyzed. A total of 625 plant disturbances was included in the search. Improvements to be made in the units were identified and the merits of possible modifications were assessed using reliability engineering and PRA techniques. Emphasis was given to design improvements in the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) as well as in the electricity generation (turbine plant) area. Examples of various types of recommended modifications will be given, including either their proven or expected efficiency in reducing scram frequency. (orig./HP)

Shock disturbance of the I-Xe system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caffee, M.W.; Hohenberg, C.M.; Podosek, F.A.; Swindle, T.D.

1982-01-01

Three separate samples of the meteorite Bjurbole were artificially shocked at pressures of 70 kb, 200 kb, and 400 kb. Analysis of xenon released in stepwise heating shows that the I-Xe system of the 400 kb sample is substantially altered by the shock loading, and it is no longer possible to infer an age or trapped xenon composition for that sample. The 200-kb and 70-kb samples display isotopic structures progressively less altered demonstrating the gradations in shock disturbance likely to be found in natural systems. Interpretations of the I-Xe and Ar-40-Ar-39 systems for several naturally shocked meteorites are also presented. New data for Arapahoe do not confirm the previously reported age and trapped xenon composition, demonstrating instead that its I-Xe structure has been strongly disturbed by shock

Analysis of haemodynamic disturbance in the atherosclerotic carotid artery using computational fluid dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birchall, Daniel; Zaman, Azfar; Hacker, Jacob; Davies, Gavin; Mendelow, David

2006-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides a means for the quantitative analysis of haemodynamic disturbances in vivo, but most work has used phantoms or idealised geometry. Our purpose was to use CFD to analyse flow in carotid atherosclerosis using patient-specific geometry and flow data. Eight atherosclerotic carotid arteries and one healthy control artery were imaged with magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and duplex ultrasound, and the data used to construct patient-specific computational models used for CFD and wall shear stress (WSS) analysis. There is a progressive change in three-dimensional (3-D) velocity profile and WSS profile with increasing severity of stenosis, characterised by increasing restriction of areas of low WSS, change in oscillation patterns, and progressive rise in WSS within stenoses and downstream jets. Areas of turbulent, retrograde flow and of low WSS are demonstrated in the lee of the stenoses. This study presents the largest CFD analysis of abnormal haemodynamics at the atheromatous carotid bifurcation using patient-specific data and provides the basis for further investigation of causal links between haemodynamic variables and atherogenesis and formation of unstable plaque. We propose that this provides a means for the prospective assessment of relative stroke risk in patients with carotid atherosclerosis. (orig.)

Differentiating Social Maladjustment from Emotional Disturbance: An Analysis of Case Law

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Amanda L.; Sadeh, Shanna S.

2014-01-01

For more than 30 years, scholars and practitioners have debated how to distinguish emotional disturbance (ED) from social maladjustment (SM) when determining special education eligibility and need. Scholarship on the nature of ED and SM has paid little attention to the legal parameters of practice despite the fundamentally legalistic nature of…

The influence of job stress, social support and health status on intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance: an 8-year longitudinal analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, John A; Batterham, Philip J; Glozier, Nick; Christensen, Helen

2014-08-01

To determine the role of health status and social support in the relationship between job stress and sleep disturbance, for both intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance. A total of 1946 mid-life adults completed three questionnaires spanning an 8-year time frame. Sleep disturbance was assessed at each time point, and participants were classified as experiencing intermittent, chronic or no sleep disturbance across this 8-year period. Independent variables included a range of job stress measures, social support, physical and mental health, and demographic characteristics. After controlling for physical and mental health, perceived lack of job marketability increased risk of intermittent sleep disturbance (odds ratio (OR)=1.33, p=0.012). No other job stress measures were associated with either intermittent or chronic sleep disturbance after adjusting for years of education, social support, and employment status. Poorer mental and physical health status, although significantly increasing odds for intermittent sleep disturbance, represented a significantly greater increase in the odds for chronic sleep disturbance over and above intermittent disturbance (OR=0.96, pjob stress had an independent effect on chronic or intermittent sleep disturbance independent of health, social support, and education. Risk profiles for intermittent and chronic sleep disturbance did not differ with regard to job stress; however, various demographic and social support factors were distinguishing factors. Health status, both physical and mental, also showed a significantly greater impact on chronic sleep disturbance than intermittent sleep disturbance. Karasek's model of job strain had little value in predicting sleep disturbance outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis With Policy Implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Catherine R; Osterberg, E Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W; McAninch, Jack W; McCulloch, Charles E; Breyer, Benjamin N

2016-08-01

To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (OR). A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated cost was $7321 ($5677-$10,000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs [OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-2.04, P = .02] compared with patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs (OR 3.2, CI 2.14-4.75, P costs (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.2-2.64, P = .005). Variations in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payor type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Disturbing Student and the Judicial Process

Science.gov (United States)

Ragle, John D.; Paine, Gage E.

2009-01-01

The Assessment-Intervention of Student Problems (AISP) model is a useful tool for preparing student affairs professionals to assess the problems of disturbed, disturbing, or disturbed/disturbing students and to make appropriate referrals. It is particularly useful because it emphasizes the necessity of developing an integrated system for this…

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

Upper Extremity Motor Learning among Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: A Meta-Analysis Evaluating Movement Time in Simple Tasks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Felix

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Motor learning has been found to occur in the rehabilitation of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD. Through repetitive structured practice of motor tasks, individuals show improved performance, confirming that motor learning has probably taken place. Although a number of studies have been completed evaluating motor learning in people with PD, the sample sizes were small and the improvements were variable. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the ability of people with PD to learn motor tasks. Studies which measured movement time in upper extremity reaching tasks and met the inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that people with PD and neurologically healthy controls both demonstrated motor learning, characterized by a decrease in movement time during upper extremity movements. Movement time improvements were greater in the control group than in individuals with PD. These results support the findings that the practice of upper extremity reaching tasks is beneficial in reducing movement time in persons with PD and has important implications for rehabilitation.

Cause and Properties of the Extreme Space Weather Event of 2012 July 23

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.

2013-12-01

Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.

Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

2004-01-01

.... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

Living with extreme weather events - perspectives from climatology, geomorphological analysis, chronicles and opinion polls

Science.gov (United States)

Auer, I.; Kirchengast, A.; Proske, H.

2009-09-01

The ongoing climate change debate focuses more and more on changing extreme events. Information on past events can be derived from a number of sources, such as instrumental data, residual impacts in the landscape, but also chronicles and people's memories. A project called "A Tale of Two Valleys” within the framework of the research program "proVision” allowed to study past extreme events in two inner-alpine valleys from the sources mentioned before. Instrumental climate time series provided information for the past 200 years, however great attention had to be given to the homogeneity of the series. To derive homogenized time series of selected climate change indices methods like HOCLIS and Vincent have been applied. Trend analyses of climate change indices inform about increase or decrease of extreme events. Traces of major geomorphodynamic processes of the past (e.g. rockfalls, landslides, debris flows) which were triggered or affected by extreme weather events are still apparent in the landscape and could be evaluated by geomorphological analysis using remote sensing and field data. Regional chronicles provided additional knowledge and covered longer periods back in time, however compared to meteorological time series they enclose a high degree of subjectivity and intermittent recordings cannot be obviated. Finally, questionnaires and oral history complemented our picture of past extreme weather events. People were differently affected and have different memories of it. The joint analyses of these four data sources showed agreement to some extent, however also showed some reasonable differences: meteorological data are point measurements only with a sometimes too coarse temporal resolution. Due to land-use changes and improved constructional measures the impact of an extreme meteorological event may be different today compared to earlier times.

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Fidell, Sanford; Tabachnick, Barbara; Pearsons, Karl S

2010-01-01

Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft) and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis procedures. The credibility, generalizability, and utility of sleep disturbance predictions are also limited by small and nonrepresentative samples of test participants, and by restricted (airport-specific and relatively short duration) circumstances of exposure. Although expedient relationships may be the best available, their predictions are of only limited utility for policy analysis and regulatory purposes, because they account for very little variance in the association between environmental noise and sleep disturbance, have characteristically shallow slopes, have not been well validated in field settings, are highly context-dependent, and do not squarely address the roles and relative importance of nonacoustic factors in sleep disturbance. Such relationships offer the appearance more than the substance of precision and objectivity. Truly useful, population-level prediction and genuine understanding of noise-induced sleep disturbance will remain beyond reach for the foreseeable future, until the findings of field studies of broader scope and more sophisticated design become available.

The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanford Fidell

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis procedures. The credibility, generalizability, and utility of sleep disturbance predictions are also limited by small and nonrepresentative samples of test participants, and by restricted (airport-specific and relatively short duration circumstances of exposure. Although expedient relationships may be the best available, their predictions are of only limited utility for policy analysis and regulatory purposes, because they account for very little variance in the association between environmental noise and sleep disturbance, have characteristically shallow slopes, have not been well validated in field settings, are highly context-dependent, and do not squarely address the roles and relative importance of nonacoustic factors in sleep disturbance. Such relationships offer the appearance more than the substance of precision and objectivity. Truly useful, population-level prediction and genuine understanding of noise-induced sleep disturbance will remain beyond reach for the foreseeable future, until the findings of field studies of broader scope and more sophisticated design become available.

A population genetic assessment of coral recovery on highly disturbed reefs of the Keppel Island archipelago in the southern Great Barrier Reef

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madeleine J.H. van Oppen

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Coral reefs surrounding the islands lying close to the coast are unique to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR in that they are frequently exposed to disturbance events including floods caused by cyclonic rainfall, strong winds and occasional periods of prolonged above-average temperatures during summer. In one such group of islands in the southern GBR, the Keppel Island archipelago, climate-driven disturbances frequently result in major coral mortality. Whilst these island reefs have clearly survived such dramatic disturbances in the past, the consequences of extreme mortality events may include the loss of genetic diversity, and hence adaptive potential, and a reduction in fitness due to inbreeding, especially if new recruitment from external sources is limited. Here we examined the level of isolation of the Keppel Island group as well as patterns of gene flow within the Keppel Islands using 10 microsatellite markers in nine populations of the coral, Acropora millepora. Bayesian cluster analysis and assignment tests indicated gene flow is restricted, but not absent, between the outer and inner Keppel Island groups, and that extensive gene flow exists within each of these island groups. Comparison of the Keppel Island data with results from a previous GBR-wide study that included a single Keppel Island population, confirmed that A. millepora in the Keppel Islands is genetically distinct from populations elsewhere on the GBR, with exception of the nearby inshore High Peak Reef just north of the Keppel Islands. We compared patterns of genetic diversity in the Keppel Island populations with those from other GBR populations and found them to be slightly, but significantly lower, consistent with the archipelago being geographically isolated, but there was no evidence for recent bottlenecks or deviation from mutation-drift equilibrium. A high incidence of private alleles in the Keppel Islands, particularly in the outer islands, supports their relative

Analysis of Applicability of Flow Averaging Pitot Tubes in the Areas of Flow Disturbance

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Pochwała Sławomir

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The issues connected with the complex design of various facilities, including up-to-date boiler equipment as well as the ways of organizing the space around them, are the reasons why there is often a lack of room for mounting a flowmeter in accordance with the recommendations of manufacturers. In most cases the problem is associated with ensuring sufficient lengths of straight pipe leading into and out of a flowmeter. When this condition cannot be fulfilled, the uncertainty of measurement increases above the value guaranteed by the manufacturer of the flowmeter. This sort of operation problem has encouraged the authors of this paper to undertake research aimed at the analysis of applicability of averaging Pitot tubes in the areas of flow disturbance.

Inventory of past DOE land disturbance, Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and estimated general reclamation costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-04-01

Since 1976, DOE preliminary investigations for a high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, have caused widespread disturbances of the landscape. This report addresses the areal extent of those disturbances that have accrued up to June 1988, and identifies expected associated reclamation costs. It was first necessary to identify disturbances, next to classify them for reclamation purposes, and, then, to assign general reclamation costs. The purposes of the analysis were: (1) to establish the amount of disturbance that already exists in the area of Yucca Mountain in order to identify alterations of the landscape that comprise the existing baseline conditions; (2) to identify estimated general reclamation costs for repair of the disturbances; (3) to provide information needed to establish disturbance models, and eventually environmental impact models, that can be applied to future DOE activities during Site Characterization and later phases of repository development, if they occur, and (4) to provide indicators of the needs for reclamation of future disturbances created by DOE's Site Characterization program. Disturbances were estimated using measurements from June 1988, large scale color aerial photography. Two reconnaissance site visits were also conducted. The identified disturbance totals by type are displayed in tabular form in the appendices. 84 refs., 2 figs., 9 tabs

Predicting the cumulative effect of multiple disturbances on seagrass connectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Grech, Alana; Hanert, Emmanuel; McKenzie, Len; Rasheed, Michael; Thomas, Christopher; Tol, Samantha; Wang, Mingzhu; Waycott, Michelle; Wolter, Jolan; Coles, Rob

2018-03-15

The rate of exchange, or connectivity, among populations effects their ability to recover after disturbance events. However, there is limited information on the extent to which populations are connected or how multiple disturbances affect connectivity, especially in coastal and marine ecosystems. We used network analysis and the outputs of a biophysical model to measure potential functional connectivity and predict the impact of multiple disturbances on seagrasses in the central Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA), Australia. The seagrass networks were densely connected, indicating that seagrasses are resilient to the random loss of meadows. Our analysis identified discrete meadows that are important sources of seagrass propagules and that serve as stepping stones connecting various different parts of the network. Several of these meadows were close to urban areas or ports and likely to be at risk from coastal development. Deep water meadows were highly connected to coastal meadows and may function as a refuge, but only for non-foundation species. We evaluated changes to the structure and functioning of the seagrass networks when one or more discrete meadows were removed due to multiple disturbance events. The scale of disturbance required to disconnect the seagrass networks into two or more components was on average >245 km, about half the length of the metapopulation. The densely connected seagrass meadows of the central GBRWHA are not limited by the supply of propagules; therefore, management should focus on improving environmental conditions that support natural seagrass recruitment and recovery processes. Our study provides a new framework for assessing the impact of global change on the connectivity and persistence of coastal and marine ecosystems. Without this knowledge, management actions, including coastal restoration, may prove unnecessary and be unsuccessful. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Zero-Crossing Disturbance Elimination and Spectrum Analysis of Single-Carrier Seven-Level SPWM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Fengjiang; Feng, Fan; Duan, Jiandong

2015-01-01

the same comparison logics of the MWs and carrier during positive and negative half cycles of the MWs. Thus, it is implemented with only one digital signal processor chip without any other attached logical circuit or controller. The reason for generating the zero-crossing voltage pulse disturbance (ZCVPD......) in this strategy is analyzed, and the elimination of the ZCVPD is proposed and verified by experimental results. The spectral characters of the conventional multi-MW-based SPWM and the proposed one are originally derived and compared with each other by simulation in detail. The theoretical analysis, simulation......, and experimental results indicate that the output characters of the proposed strategy are identical to those of the conventional one; it means that the proposed strategy can replace the conventional one while with the benefit of significantly reducing the cost and bulk of the implemental platform....

Observation of gravity waves during the extreme tornado outbreak of 3 April 1974

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Phan, T.; Smith, R. E.

1978-01-01

A continuous wave-spectrum high-frequency radiowave Doppler sounder array was used to observe upper-atmospheric disturbances during an extreme tornado outbreak. The observations indicated that gravity waves with two harmonic wave periods were detected at the F-region ionospheric height. Using a group ray path computational technique, the observed gravity waves were traced in order to locate potential sources. The signals were apparently excited 1-3 hours before tornado touchdown. Reverse ray tracing indicated that the wave source was located at the aurora zone with a Kp index of 6 at the time of wave excitation. The summation of the 24-hour Kp index for the day was 36. The results agree with existing theories (Testud, 1970; Titheridge, 1971; Kato, 1976) for the excitation of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with geomagnetic activity in the aurora zone.

Sleep Patterns, Sleep Disturbances, and Associated Factors Among Chinese Urban Kindergarten Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhijun; Wang, Guanghai; Geng, Li; Luo, Junna; Li, Ningxiu; Owens, Judith

2016-01-01

This study aimed to characterize sleep patterns and disturbances among Chinese urban kindergarten children and examine potentially associated factors. Caregivers of 513 children (47.96% male) aged 3-6 years (mean age = 4.46, SD = 0.9) completed the Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire (CSHQ) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Almost 80% (78.8%) of the children scored above the original CSHQ cutoff point for global sleep disturbance. Regression analysis indicated that child's age, and the presence of emotional problems, hyperactivity and peer problems, cosleeping, and interparental inconsistency of attitudes toward child rearing accounted for significant variance in the CSHQ total score (R(2) = 22%). These findings indicate that there is an apparently high prevalence of sleep disturbances in Chinese urban kindergarten children; and sleep disturbances are associated with both child-related and parenting practice variables.

Identification of Individuals with Serious Emotional Disturbance Using the Draw a Person: Screening Procedure for Emotional Disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

McNeish, Timothy J.; Naglieri, Jack A.

1993-01-01

Regular education students (n=81) and students with serious emotional disturbance (n=81,) were matched on age (7-13), gender, race, and intelligence. They completed drawings which were scored using the "Draw a Person: Screening Procedure for Emotional Disturbance." Students with emotional disturbance scored significantly higher than did…

Reconceptualizing 'extremism' and 'moderation': from categories of analysis to categories of practice in the construction of collective identity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, Nick; Kahani-Hopkins, Vered

2009-03-01

Much psychological research employs the categories of extremism and moderation as categories of analysis (e.g. to identify the psychological bases for, and consequences of, holding certain positions). This paper argues these categorizations inevitably reflect one's values and taken-for-granted assumptions about social reality and that their use as analytic categories limits our ability to explore what is really important: social actors' own constructions of social reality. In turn we argue that if we are to focus on this latter, there may be merit in exploring how social actors themselves use the categories of moderation and extremism to construct their own terms of reference. That is we propose to re-conceptualize the categories of moderation and extremism as categories of practice rather than analysis. The utility of this approach is illustrated with qualitative data. We argue that these data illustrate the importance of respecting social actors' own constructions of social reality (rather than imposing our own). Moreover, we argue that categories of moderation and extremism may be employed by social actors in diverse ways to construct different terms of reference and so recruit support for different identity-related projects.

Sleep disturbances in Parkinsonism.

Science.gov (United States)

Askenasy, J J M

2003-02-01

The present article is meant to suggest an approach to the guidelines for the therapy of sleep disturbances in Parkinson's Disease (PD) patients.The factors affecting the quality of life in PD patients are depression, sleep disturbances and dependence. A large review of the literature on sleep disturbances in PD patients, provided the basis for the following classification of the sleep-arousal disturbances in PD patients. We suggest a model based on 3 steps in the treatment of sleep disturbances in PD patients. This model allowing the patient, the spouse or the caregiver a quiet sleep at night, may postpone the retirement and the institutionalization of the PD patient. I. Correct diagnosis of sleep disorders based on detailed anamnesis of the patient and of the spouse or of the caregiver. One week recording on a symptom diary (log) by the patient or the caregiver. Correct diagnosis of sleep disorders co morbidities. Selection of the most appropriate sleep test among: polysomnography (PSG), multiple sleep latency test (MSLT), multiple wake latency test (MWLT), Epworth Sleepiness Scale, actigraphy or video-PSG. II. The nonspecific therapeutic approach consists in: a) Checking the sleep effect on motor performance, is it beneficial, worse or neutral. b) Psycho-physical assistance. c) Dopaminergic adjustment is necessary owing to the progression of the nigrostriatal degeneration and the increased sensitivity of the terminals, which alter the normal modulator mechanisms of the motor centers in PD patients. Among the many neurotransmitters of the nigro-striatal pathway one can distinguish two with a major influence on REM and NonREM sleep. REM sleep corresponds to an increased cholinergic receptor activity and a decreased dopaminergic activity. This is the reason why REM sleep deprivation by suppressing cholinergic receptor activity ameliorates PD motor symptoms. L-Dopa and its agonists by suppressing cholinergic receptors suppress REM sleep. The permanent adjustment

Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. F. Rasilla Álvarez

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1% Total Water Levels (eTWL on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data and hindcasted (SIMAR-44 data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

Science.gov (United States)

Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

2017-10-01

Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

Study of ionospheric disturbances over the China mid- and low-latitude region with GPS observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yafei; Tang, Jun

2018-01-01

Ionospheric disturbances constitute the main restriction factor for precise positioning techniques based on global positioning system (GPS) measurements. Simultaneously, GPS observations are widely used to determine ionospheric disturbances with total electron content (TEC). In this paper, we present an analysis of ionospheric disturbances over China mid- and low-latitude area before and during the magnetic storm on 17 March 2015. The work analyses the variation of magnetic indices, the amplitude of ionospheric irregularities observed with four arrays of GPS stations and the influence of geomagnetic storm on GPS positioning. The results show that significant ionospheric TEC disturbances occurred between 10:30 and 12:00 UT during the main phase of the large storm, and the static position reliability for this period are little affected by these disturbances. It is observed that the positive and negative disturbances propagate southward along the meridian from mid-latitude to low-latitude regions. The propagation velocity is from about 200 to 700 m s-1 and the amplitude of ionospheric disturbances is from about 0.2 to 0.9 TECU min-1. Moreover, the position dilution of precession (PDOP) with static precise point positioning (PPP) on storm and quiet days is 1.8 and 0.9 cm, respectively. This study is based on the analysis of ionospheric variability with differential rate of vertical TEC (DROVT) and impact of ionospheric storm on positioning with technique of GPS PPP.

The impact of an extreme climatic disturbance and different fertilization treatments on plant development, phenology, and yield of two cultivar groups of Solanum betaceum Cav.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joffre V Tandazo-Yunga

Full Text Available Changing climatic conditions impose a challenge both to biodiversity and food security. The effects of climate change affect different aspects of the plant or crop, such as morphological and phenological aspects, as well as yield. The effects of greenhouse conditions might be comparable in some cases to a permanent extreme disturbance in climate and weather, thus, contributing to our knowledge on climate change impacts on plant species. We have investigated the differences for 23 traits in two cultivar groups of an Andean traditional crop, Solanum betaceum, under two different environmental conditions that correspond to the traditional practices in the open field and three cultural managements under greenhouse conditions (no fertilization or control, organic, and mineral. We found that traditional practices in the open field are the less productive. Moreover, in warmer and drier conditions the treatment with organic fertilization was the most productive. Greenhouse conditions, however, delay production. We further identified traits that differentiate both cultivar groups and traits that are linked to either the new climate conditions or the fertilization treatments. Fruit characteristics were quite homogeneous between the two cultivar groups. Overall, our results provide insight on the consequences that climate change effects might exert on crops such as tree tomato, reveal that greenhouses can be a robust alternative for tree tomato production, and highlight the need to understand how different managements are linked to different solutions to fulfil the farmers' demands.

Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez L, D

2009-01-01

One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

2009-11-01

One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

Latitudinal profile of the ionospheric disturbance dynamo magnetic signature: comparison with the DP2 magnetic disturbance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Z. Zaka

2009-09-01

Full Text Available During magnetic storms, the auroral electrojets intensification affects the thermospheric circulation on a global scale. This process which leads to electric field and current disturbance at middle and low latitudes, on the quiet day after the end of a storm, has been attributed to the ionospheric disturbance dynamo (Ddyn. The magnetic field disturbance observed as a result of this process is the reduction of the H component amplitude in the equatorial region which constitutes the main characteristic of the ionospheric disturbance dynamo process, associated with a westward electric current flow. The latitudinal profile of the Ddyn disturbance dynamo magnetic signature exhibits an eastward current at mid latitudes and a westward one at low latitudes with a substantial amplification at the magnetic equator. Such current flow reveals an "anti-Sq" system established between the mid latitudes and the equatorial region and opposes the normal Sq current vortex. However, the localization of the eastward current and consequently the position and the extent of the "anti-Sq" current vortex changes from one storm to another. Indeed, for a strong magnetic storm, the eastward current is well established at mid latitudes about 45° N and for a weak magnetic storm, the eastward current is established toward the high latitudes (about 60° N, near the Joule heating region, resulting in a large "anti-Sq" current cell. The latitudinal profile of the Ddyn disturbance as well as the magnetic disturbance DP2 generated by the mechanism of prompt penetration of the magnetospheric convection electric field in general, show a weak disturbance at the low latitudes with a substantial amplification at the magnetic equator. Due to the intensity of the storm, the magnitude of the DP2 appears higher than the Ddyn over the American and Asian sector contrary to the African sector.

Atomic and electronic structures of an extremely fragile liquid.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohara, Shinji; Akola, Jaakko; Patrikeev, Leonid; Ropo, Matti; Ohara, Koji; Itou, Masayoshi; Fujiwara, Akihiko; Yahiro, Jumpei; Okada, Junpei T; Ishikawa, Takehiko; Mizuno, Akitoshi; Masuno, Atsunobu; Watanabe, Yasuhiro; Usuki, Takeshi

2014-12-18

The structure of high-temperature liquids is an important topic for understanding the fragility of liquids. Here we report the structure of a high-temperature non-glass-forming oxide liquid, ZrO2, at an atomistic and electronic level. The Bhatia-Thornton number-number structure factor of ZrO2 does not show a first sharp diffraction peak. The atomic structure comprises ZrO5, ZrO6 and ZrO7 polyhedra with a significant contribution of edge sharing of oxygen in addition to corner sharing. The variety of large oxygen coordination and polyhedral connections with short Zr-O bond lifetimes, induced by the relatively large ionic radius of zirconium, disturbs the evolution of intermediate-range ordering, which leads to a reduced electronic band gap and increased delocalization in the ionic Zr-O bonding. The details of the chemical bonding explain the extremely low viscosity of the liquid and the absence of a first sharp diffraction peak, and indicate that liquid ZrO2 is an extremely fragile liquid.

Statistical Maps of Ground Magnetic Disturbance Derived from Global Geospace Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rigler, E. J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Electric currents in space are the principal driver of magnetic variations measured at Earth's surface. These in turn induce geoelectric fields that present a natural hazard for technological systems like high-voltage power distribution networks. Modern global geospace models can reasonably simulate large-scale geomagnetic response to solar wind variations, but they are less successful at deterministic predictions of intense localized geomagnetic activity that most impacts technological systems on the ground. Still, recent studies have shown that these models can accurately reproduce the spatial statistical distributions of geomagnetic activity, suggesting that their physics are largely correct. Since the magnetosphere is a largely externally driven system, most model-measurement discrepancies probably arise from uncertain boundary conditions. So, with realistic distributions of solar wind parameters to establish its boundary conditions, we use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) geospace model to build a synthetic multivariate statistical model of gridded ground magnetic disturbance. From this, we analyze the spatial modes of geomagnetic response, regress on available measurements to fill in unsampled locations on the grid, and estimate the global probability distribution of extreme magnetic disturbance. The latter offers a prototype geomagnetic "hazard map", similar to those used to characterize better-known geophysical hazards like earthquakes and floods.

Concepts and Challenges in Disturbance Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Ebel, B. A.; Mirus, B. B.

2016-12-01

Landscape disturbances are increasing, often promoted and enhanced by climate shifts and human activities. Insect infestations, wildfires, earthquakes, urban development, forest harvest, mineral and petroleum resource extraction, and hurricanes are common landscape disturbances that can have profound hydrologic consequences. These cause relatively abrupt changes in the landscape, which alter local processes on plots and hillslopes in addition to coarser-scale processes across watersheds through cross-scale interactions. Shifts in soil properties and cover of vegetation and leaf litter change the water storage or buffering capacity as well as the hydrologic functional connectivity across multiple scales. These changes increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, erosion, and mass movements that degrade water resources, ecosystem services, and protection from hydrologically driven natural hazards. Although it is imperative that we understand the hydrologic effects of these disturbances, several major barriers exist. Four challenges are: (i) overlapping disturbances in space and time with unknown recovery trajectories, (ii) a paucity of long-term recovery records (>5 years duration), (iii) inefficacy of traditional modeling and parameterization approaches, and (iv) lack of pre-disturbance characterization. Examples of these challenges will be presented along with proposed opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of processes and thresholds in disturbance hydrology.

Nonunity gain minimal-disturbance measurement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabuncu, Metin; Mišta, L.; Fiurášek, J.

2007-01-01

We propose and experimentally demonstrate an optimal nonunity gain Gaussian scheme for partial measurement of an unknown coherent state that causes minimal disturbance of the state. The information gain and the state disturbance are quantified by the noise added to the measurement outcomes...

Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore.

Science.gov (United States)

Piessens, Katrien; Adriaens, Dries; Jacquemyn, Hans; Honnay, Olivier

2009-02-01

Habitat fragmentation is considered to be one of the main causes of population decline and species extinction worldwide. Furthermore, habitat fragmentation can decrease the ability of populations to resist and to recover from environmental disturbances such as extreme weather events, which are expected to occur at an increasing rate as a result of climate change. In this study, we investigated how calcareous grassland fragmentation affected the impact of the climatically extreme summer of 2003 on egg deposition rates, population size variation and survival of the blue butterfly Cupido minimus, a specialist herbivore of Anthyllis vulneraria. Immediately after the 2003 summer heat wave, populations of the host plant declined in size; this was paralleled with decreases in population size of the herbivore and altered egg deposition rates. In 2006 at the end of the monitoring period, however, most A. vulneraria populations had recovered and only one population went extinct. In contrast, several butterfly populations had gone extinct between 2003 and 2006. Extinction probability was significantly related to initial population size, with small populations having a higher risk of extinction than large populations. These results support the prediction that species of higher trophic levels are more susceptible to extinction due to habitat fragmentation and severe disturbances.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Improving the performance of interferometric imaging through the use of disturbance feedforward.

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, Michael; Glück, Martin; Keck, Alexander; Pott, Jörg-Uwe; Sawodny, Oliver

2017-05-01

In this paper, we present a disturbance compensation technique to improve the performance of interferometric imaging for extremely large ground-based telescopes, e.g., the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT), which serves as the application example in this contribution. The most significant disturbance sources at ground-based telescopes are wind-induced mechanical vibrations in the range of 8-60 Hz. Traditionally, their optical effect is eliminated by feedback systems, such as the adaptive optics control loop combined with a fringe tracking system within the interferometric instrument. In this paper, accelerometers are used to measure the vibrations. These measurements are used to estimate the motion of the mirrors, i.e., tip, tilt and piston, with a dynamic estimator. Additional delay compensation methods are presented to cancel sensor network delays and actuator input delays, improving the estimation result even more, particularly at higher frequencies. Because various instruments benefit from the implementation of telescope vibration mitigation, the estimator is implemented as a separate, independent software on the telescope, publishing the estimated values via multicast on the telescope's ethernet. Every client capable of using and correcting the estimated disturbances can subscribe and use these values in a feedforward for its compensation device, e.g., the deformable mirror, the piston mirror of LINC-NIRVANA, or the fast path length corrector of the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer. This easy-to-use approach eventually leveraged the presented technology for interferometric use at the LBT and now significantly improves the sky coverage, performance, and operational robustness of interferometric imaging on a regular basis.

Small disturbances stability analysis applied in a radial distribution system with distributed generation units; Analise de estabilidade a pequenos disturbios aplicada em um sistema de distribuicao radial com unidades de geracao distribuida

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorca, Daniel Azevedo; Camacho, Jose Roberto [Universidade Federal de Uberlandia (UFU), MG (Brazil). Curso de Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrica

2008-07-01

This work investigates the small-disturbance stability of a 30 bus radial distribution system with distributed generation units. This work is realized through the time domain simulations and through the eigenvalue analysis and participation factors. The eigenvalue analysis show that is possible to predict a possible system instability face to a disturbance. The development of this work was stimulated by the increasing of the distributed generation units in the distribution networks. (author)

Influence of disturbance on temperate forest productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

2013-01-01

Climate, tree species traits, and soil fertility are key controls on forest productivity. However, in most forest ecosystems, natural and human disturbances, such as wind throw, fire, and harvest, can also exert important and lasting direct and indirect influence over productivity. We used an ecosystem model, PnET-CN, to examine how disturbance type, intensity, and frequency influence net primary production (NPP) across a range of forest types from Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA. We assessed the importance of past disturbances on NPP, net N mineralization, foliar N, and leaf area index at 107 forest stands of differing types (aspen, jack pine, northern hardwood, black spruce) and disturbance history (fire, harvest) by comparing model simulations with observations. The model reasonably predicted differences among forest types in productivity, foliar N, leaf area index, and net N mineralization. Model simulations that included past disturbances minimally improved predictions compared to simulations without disturbance, suggesting the legacy of past disturbances played a minor role in influencing current forest productivity rates. Modeled NPP was more sensitive to the intensity of soil removal during a disturbance than the fraction of stand mortality or wood removal. Increasing crown fire frequency resulted in lower NPP, particularly for conifer forest types with longer leaf life spans and longer recovery times. These findings suggest that, over long time periods, moderate frequency disturbances are a relatively less important control on productivity than climate, soil, and species traits.

Finding disturbances in on-farm biogas production.

Science.gov (United States)

Antonio, Pereira-Querol Marco; Laura, Seppänen

2012-01-01

When implementing innovations, disturbances are very likely to take place. Disturbances are undesirable because they can lead to unwanted outcomes, such as economic losses and work overload to workers. However, they can be powerful opportunities for learning and re-designing innovations. Here, we will present activity theoretical tools for analyzing disturbances in a way that they could be used as learning opportunities. We illustrate the proposed tools by analyzing a disturbance that took place during the implementation of a project of biogas production. By interpreting the disturbance process with a network of activity systems, we found that on-farm disturbances were formed as ruptures, innovations and asynchronies originated in other activity systems. This finding suggests that disturbances are outcomes of the functioning of networks, rather than simple results of failure of individuals or technical devices. The proposed tools could be used in interventions to help practitioners and ergonomists to recognize the systemic and networked nature of problems, and therefore, realize that they may require the collaboration of actors from different activities. In this sense, disturbances may be turned into opportunities for learning and developing innovations. We conclude by discussing how the method could be used in ergonomic design and intervention.

Understanding the Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Fire Disturbance in the Eastern Mongolia Using Modis Product

Science.gov (United States)

Wurihan; Zhang, H.; Zhang, Z.; Guo, X.; Zhao, J.; Duwala; Shan, Y.; Hongying

2018-04-01

Fire disturbance plays an important role in maintaining ecological balance, biodiversity and self-renewal. In this paper, the spatio-temporal pattern of fire disturbances in eastern Mongolia are studied by using the ArcGIS spatial analysis method, using the MCD45A1 data of MODIS fire products with long time series. It provides scientific basis and reference for the regional ecological environment security construction and international ecological security. Research indicates: (1) The fire disturbance in eastern Mongolia has obvious high and low peak interleaving phenomenon in the year, and the seasonal change is obvious. (2) The distribution pattern of fire disturbance in eastern Mongolia is aggregated, which indicates that the fire disturbance is not random and it is caused by certain influence. (3) Fire disturbance is mainly distributed in the eastern province of Mongolia, the border between China and Mongolia and the northern forest area of Sukhbaatar province. (4) The fire disturbance in the eastern part of the study area is strong and the southwest is weaker. The spreading regularity of fire disturbances in eastern Mongolia is closer to the natural level of ecosystem.

UNDERSTANDING THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF FIRE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN MONGOLIA USING MODIS PRODUCT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wurihan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Fire disturbance plays an important role in maintaining ecological balance, biodiversity and self-renewal. In this paper, the spatio-temporal pattern of fire disturbances in eastern Mongolia are studied by using the ArcGIS spatial analysis method, using the MCD45A1 data of MODIS fire products with long time series. It provides scientific basis and reference for the regional ecological environment security construction and international ecological security. Research indicates: (1 The fire disturbance in eastern Mongolia has obvious high and low peak interleaving phenomenon in the year, and the seasonal change is obvious. (2 The distribution pattern of fire disturbance in eastern Mongolia is aggregated, which indicates that the fire disturbance is not random and it is caused by certain influence. (3 Fire disturbance is mainly distributed in the eastern province of Mongolia, the border between China and Mongolia and the northern forest area of Sukhbaatar province. (4 The fire disturbance in the eastern part of the study area is strong and the southwest is weaker. The spreading regularity of fire disturbances in eastern Mongolia is closer to the natural level of ecosystem.

Sleep disturbances and glucose homeostasis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barf, R. Paulien; Scheurink, Anton J.W.

2011-01-01

Sleep disturbances, induced by either lifestyle, shift work or sleeping disorders, have become more prevalent in our 24/7 Western society. Sleep disturbances are associated with impaired health including metabolic diseases such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. The question remains whether there is a

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

OpenAIRE

Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

2011-01-01

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis applies to tropical forests, but disturbance contributes little to tree diversity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongers, F.; Poorter, L.; Hawthorne, W.D.; Sheil, D.

2009-01-01

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts local species diversity to be maximal at an intermediate level of disturbance. Developed to explain species maintenance and diversity patterns in species-rich ecosystems such as tropical forests, tests of IDH in tropical forest remain scarce,

Relative impact of previous disturbance history on the likelihood of additional disturbance in the Northern United States Forest Service USFS Region

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, A. J.

2015-12-01

The Landsat archive is increasingly being used to detect trends in the occurrence of forest disturbance. Beyond information about the amount of area affected, forest managers need to know if and how disturbance regimes change. The National Forest System (NFS) has developed a comprehensive plan for carbon monitoring that requires a detailed temporal mapping of forest disturbances across 75 million hectares. A long-term annual time series that shows the timing, extent, and type of disturbance beginning in 1990 and ending in 2011 has been prepared for several USFS Regions, including the Northern Region. Our mapping starts with an automated detection of annual disturbances using a time series of historical Landsat imagery. Automated detections are meticulously inspected, corrected and labeled using various USFS ancillary datasets. The resulting maps of verified disturbance show the timing and types are fires, harvests, insect activity, disease, and abiotic (wind, drought, avalanche) damage. Also, the magnitude of each change event is modeled in terms of the proportion of canopy cover lost. The sequence of disturbances for every pixel since 1990 has been consistently mapped and is available across the entirety of NFS. Our datasets contain sufficient information to describe the frequency of stand replacement, as well as how often disturbance results in only a partial loss of canopy. This information provides empirical insight into how an initial disturbance may predispose a stand to further disturbance, and it also show a climatic signal in the occurrence of processes such as fire and insect epidemics. Thus, we have the information to model the likelihood of occurrence of certain disturbances after a given event (i.e. if we have a fire in the past what does that do to the likelihood of occurrence of insects in the future). Here, we explore if previous disturbance history is a reliable predictor of additional disturbance in the future and we present results of applying

Availability of steam generator against thermal disturbance of hydrogen production system coupled to HTGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibata, Taiju; Nishihara, Tetsuo; Hada, Kazuhiko; Shiozawa, Shusaku

1996-01-01

One of the safety issues to couple a hydrogen production system to an HTGR is how the reactor coolability can be maintained against anticipated abnormal reduction of heat removal (thermal disturbance) of the hydrogen production system. Since such a thermal disturbance is thought to frequently occur, it is desired against the thermal disturbance to keep reactor coolability by means other than reactor scram. Also, it is thought that the development of a passive cooling system for such a thermal disturbance will be necessary from a public acceptance point of view in a future HTGR-hydrogen production system. We propose a SG as the passive cooling system which can keep the reactor coolability during a thermal disturbance of a hydrogen production system. This paper describes the proposed steam generator (SG) for the HTGR-hydrogen production system and a result of transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of the total system, showing availability of the SG against a thermal disturbance of the hydrogen production system in case of the HTTR-steam reforming hydrogen production system. (author)

Response of wetland herbaceous communities to gradients of light and substrate following disturbance by thermal pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, Christopher P.; Scott, Michael L.

1987-01-01

The influence of thermal disturbance and site characteristics on distribution of herbs was studied in portions of a 3020 ha wetland in the southeastern USA. Presence-absence of 52 species in 130 0.25 m2 plots was determined from four sites with different disturbance histories and from an undisturbed site. Data from the four disturbed sites were ordinated by detrended correspondence analysis. Differences in species composition among sites (coarse scale) were associated with water depth, light, and substrate type. Within a site (at a fine scale), correlation of environmental variables with ordination scores at a chronically disturbed site was weakly correlated with light (r=0.50). At two sites with episodic disturbance, species composition correlated significantly and positively with substrate and water depth. At a recovering site, vegetation patterns were moderately correlated with water depth (r=−0.52). Species richness was correlated with substrate type along the disturbance gradient. Our results are consistent the intermediate disturbance hypothesis and the subsidy-stress gradient concept.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disturbance History,Spatial Variability, and Patterns of Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Bendix, J.; Wiley, J. J.; Commons, M.

2012-12-01

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis predicts that species diversity will be maximized in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting combined impact of the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We modeled the changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the details reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of their disturbance history. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity illustrates both the contingent nature of diversity and the danger of generalizing about the impacts of disturbance.

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Hughes, M. Joseph [University of Tennessee (UT); Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL

2015-01-01

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

Classification of Single and Multiple Disturbances in Electric Signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ribeiro Moisés Vidal

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses and presents a different perspective for classifying single and multiple disturbances in electric signals, such as voltage and current ones. Basically, the principle of divide to conquer is applied to decompose the electric signals into what we call primitive signals or components from which primitive patterns can be independently recognized. A technique based on such concept is introduced to demonstrate the effectiveness of such idea. This technique decomposes the electric signals into three main primitive components. In each primitive component, few high-order-statistics- (HOS- based features are extracted. Then, Bayes' theory-based techniques are applied to verify the ocurrence or not of single or multiple disturbances in the electric signals. The performance analysis carried out on a large number of data indicates that the proposed technique outperforms the performance attained by the technique introduced by He and Starzyk. Additionally, the numerical results verify that the proposed technique is capable of offering interesting results when it is applied to classify several sets of disturbances if one cycle of the main frequency is considered, at least.

Numerical study of wave disturbance in liquid cooling film

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.R. Shine

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Transient numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the liquid-gas interface characteristics associated with liquid film cooling flows. A two-dimensional axisymmetric multi-phase numerical model using finite volume formulation is developed. The model has been validated against available experimental data for liquid-film cooling flows inside tubes. The model has been used to predict the interface characteristics for a variety of imposed parameters and momentum flux ratios under cold flow conditions wherein both the coolant and mainstream are maintained at the same temperature. Disturbance waves are observed at the liquid-gas interface for coolant flows above a critical value and after a finite distance from the inlet. The distance toward the wave inception point increased with the increase of momentum flux ratio. However, at higher momentum flux ratios, the properties of the disturbance waves did not vary significantly. The parameters related to the liquid-gas interface waves, namely, wave velocity, frequency, amplitude and wave length have been analyzed in detail. Analysis indicates that the liquid entrainment is due to the shearing of the disturbance wave crest.

Electric power quality analysis methods. Application to voltage dips and harmonic disturbances; Methodes d'analyse de la qualite de l'energie electrique. Application aux creux de tension et a la pollution harmonique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanya, Ignatova

2006-10-15

The power quality concerns all the actors in the energy domains, that they are network administrators, suppliers, producers, or consumers of electricity. The research work presented in this PhD thesis is situated in the field of the power quality monitoring. Its objective is to introduce new techniques for analysis of power quality problems. There are different methods designed for the analysis of the power quality disturbances. This method reaches very good performances in the voltage dips analysis, as it allows segmenting, classifying and characterising these power quality disturbances. The periodic systems method allows the theoretical study of the generation and the propagation of harmonic disturbances in the network. Finally, the statistical matrix method has the objective to represent statistically electrical signals without loss of important information. (author)

Sleep habits and disturbances in Malaysian children with epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Lai Choo; Yang, Wai Wai; Wong, Sau Wei; alSiddiq, Feizel; Khu, Yi Soon

2010-03-01

To compare sleep habits and disturbances between Malaysian children with epilepsy and their siblings (age range 4-18 years) and to determine the factors associated with greater sleep disturbance. The Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children (SDSC) questionnaire was completed by the primary caregiver for 92 epileptic children (mean age 11.1 years, 50 male, 42 females) and their healthy siblings (mean age 11.1 years, 47 males, 45 females). Details of sleep arrangements and illness severity were obtained. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with high Total SDSC scores in epileptic patients. Compared with their siblings, epileptic children had significantly higher total SDSC score (difference between means 8.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.4-11.1) and subscale scores in disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep (3.9, 95% CI 2.8-5.2), sleep-wake transition disorders (2.1, 95% CI 1.3-2.9), sleep-disordered breathing (0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.1) and disorders of excessive sleepiness (1.5, 95% CI 0.6-2.4). Epileptic children had a higher prevalence of co-sleeping (73.7% vs 31.5%) and on more nights per week (difference between means 3, 95% CI 2.0-3.9) than their siblings. Higher Epilepsy Illness Severity scores were associated with higher total SDSC scores (P= 0.02). Co-sleeping was highly prevalent in children with epilepsy, who also had more sleep disturbances (especially problems with initiating and maintaining sleep and sleep-wake transition disorders) than their siblings. Epilepsy severity contributed to the sleep disturbances. Evaluation of sleep problems should form part of the comprehensive care of children with severe epilepsy.

Is prescribed lower extremity weight-bearing status after geriatric lower extremity trauma associated with increased mortality?

Science.gov (United States)

Gitajn, Ida Leah; Connelly, Daniel; Mascarenhas, Daniel; Breazeale, Stephen; Berger, Peter; Schoonover, Carrie; Martin, Brook; O'Toole, Robert V; Pensy, Raymond; Sciadini, Marcus

2018-02-01

Evaluate whether mortality after discharge is elevated in geriatric fracture patients whose lower extremity weight-bearing is restricted. Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Urban Level 1 trauma center PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: 1746 patients >65 years of age INTERVENTION: Post-operative lower extremity weight-bearing status MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality, as determined by the Social Security Death Index RESULTS: Univariate analysis demonstrated that patients who were weight-bearing as tolerated on bilateral lower extremities (BLE) had significantly higher 5-year mortality compared to patients with restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity and restricted weight-bearing on BLE (30%, 21% and 22% respectively, p bearing as tolerated on BLE, restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.20, p = 0.76) and restricted weight-bearing in BLE had a HR of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.36, p = 0.73). In geriatric patients, prescribed weight-bearing status did not have a statistically significant association with mortality after discharge, when controlling for age, sex, body mass index, medical comorbidities, Injury Severity Scale (ISS), mechanism of injury, nonoperative treatment and admission GCS. This remained true in when the analysis was restricted to operative injuries only. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sliding Mode Control for NSVs with Input Constraint Using Neural Network and Disturbance Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-long Zhou

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The sliding mode control (SMC scheme is proposed for near space vehicles (NSVs with strong nonlinearity, high coupling, parameter uncertainty, and unknown time-varying disturbance based on radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs and the nonlinear disturbance observer (NDO. Considering saturation characteristic of rudders, RBFNNs are constructed as a compensator to overcome the saturation nonlinearity. The stability of the closed-loop system is proved, and the tracking error as well as the disturbance observer error can converge to the origin through the Lyapunov analysis. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed flight control scheme.

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of disturbance wave in a hypersonic boundary layer due to single-frequency entropy disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhenqing; Tang, Xiaojun; Lv, Hongqing; Shi, Jianqiang

2014-01-01

By using a high-order accurate finite difference scheme, direct numerical simulation of hypersonic flow over an 8° half-wedge-angle blunt wedge under freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance is conducted; the generation and the temporal and spatial nonlinear evolution of boundary layer disturbance waves are investigated. Results show that, under the freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance, the entropy state of boundary layer is changed sharply and the disturbance waves within a certain frequency range are induced in the boundary layer. Furthermore, the amplitudes of disturbance waves in the period phase are larger than that in the response phase and ablation phase and the frequency range in the boundary layer in the period phase is narrower than that in these two phases. In addition, the mode competition, dominant mode transformation, and disturbance energy transfer exist among different modes both in temporal and in spatial evolution. The mode competition changes the characteristics of nonlinear evolution of the unstable waves in the boundary layer. The development of the most unstable mode along streamwise relies more on the motivation of disturbance waves in the upstream than that of other modes on this motivation.

Natural disturbance impacts on Canada's forest carbon budget

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurz, W.

2004-01-01

Wildfire and insect outbreaks are major determinants of forest dynamics in Canada, transferring carbon within the ecosystem, releasing carbon into the atmosphere and influencing post-disturbance carbon dynamics. This paper discusses the impacts of global climate change on natural disturbances. Higher temperatures and drier conditions are likely to increase burned areas in Canada and will also increase the impacts of insects, allowing for an expanded range and stressing their host species. Long-term changes in disturbance regimes have already affected Canada's forest age-class structure. Statistics of lower disturbance periods and carbon production were compared with periods of higher disturbance. Scenario analyses were conducted for the period of 1996 to 2032, assuming that annual insect and fire disturbance rates in timber-productive forests were 20 per cent higher and carbon production 20 per cent lower than base scenarios using average disturbance rates. It was concluded that these conditions could cause carbon stocks in Canada's forests to decline. The future carbon balance of Canada's forests will be affected by the rate of natural and human-induced disturbances. 4 refs

A Fourier analysis of extreme events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

2014-01-01

The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

On the conditions of exponential stability in active disturbance rejection control based on singular perturbation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, S.; Gao, Z.

2017-10-01

Stability of active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) is analysed in the presence of unknown, nonlinear, and time-varying dynamics. In the framework of singular perturbations, the closed-loop error dynamics are semi-decoupled into a relatively slow subsystem (the feedback loop) and a relatively fast subsystem (the extended state observer), respectively. It is shown, analytically and geometrically, that there exists a unique exponential stable solution if the size of the initial observer error is sufficiently small, i.e. in the same order of the inverse of the observer bandwidth. The process of developing the uniformly asymptotic solution of the system reveals the condition on the stability of the ADRC and the relationship between the rate of change in the total disturbance and the size of the estimation error. The differentiability of the total disturbance is the only assumption made.

Global transcriptome analysis of Halolamina sp. to decipher the salt tolerance in extremely halophilic archaea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurt-Kızıldoğan, Aslıhan; Abanoz, Büşra; Okay, Sezer

2017-02-15

Extremely halophilic archaea survive in the hypersaline environments such as salt lakes or salt mines. Therefore, these microorganisms are good sources to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying the tolerance to high salt concentrations. In this study, a global transcriptome analysis was conducted in an extremely halophilic archaeon, Halolamina sp. YKT1, isolated from a salt mine in Turkey. A comparative RNA-seq analysis was performed using YKT1 isolate grown either at 2.7M NaCl or 5.5M NaCl concentrations. A total of 2149 genes were predicted to be up-regulated and 1638 genes were down-regulated in the presence of 5.5M NaCl. The salt tolerance of Halolamina sp. YKT1 involves the up-regulation of genes related with membrane transporters, CRISPR-Cas systems, osmoprotectant solutes, oxidative stress proteins, and iron metabolism. On the other hand, the genes encoding the proteins involved in DNA replication, transcription, translation, mismatch and nucleotide excision repair were down-regulated. The RNA-seq data were verified for seven up-regulated genes as well as six down-regulated genes via qRT-PCR analysis. This comprehensive transcriptome analysis showed that the halophilic archaeon canalizes its energy towards keeping the intracellular osmotic balance minimizing the production of nucleic acids and peptides. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peeking at ecosystem stability: making use of a natural disturbance experiment to analyze resistance and resilience.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruelheide, Helge; Luginbühl, Ute

2009-05-01

To determine which factors contribute most to the stability of species composition in a beech forest after profound disturbance, we made use of a natural experiment caused by a severe windthrow that occurred at a permanent monitoring site in an old beech forest in Lower Saxony (Germany). The floristic composition was recorded for the succeeding five years after the disturbance and used to derive measures of resistance and resilience for plots as well as for individual species. Due to the existence of previously established randomly distributed permanent plots, we had precise information of the pre-disturbance state, including initial cover of the herb layer, species richness, and species composition. Variables describing the floristic change, resistance, and resilience were derived from correspondence analysis allowing for partitioning the effects of variation among plots from those of temporal change. We asked to which degree these variables could be predicted by pre-disturbance state and disturbance intensity. We found that both the pre-disturbance state and the disturbance intensity were good predictors for floristic change and resistance, while they failed to predict resilience. Among the descriptors of the pre-disturbance state the initial cover of the herb layer turned out to be a useful predictor, which is explained by a high vegetation cover buffering against losses and preventing establishment of newcomers. In contrast, species number neither showed a relationship to floristic change nor to resistance. Putative positive effects of species number on stability according to the insurance hypothesis might have been counterbalanced by a disruption of niche complementarity in species-rich communities. Among the descriptors of disturbance intensity, the loss in canopy cover and the change in photosynthetically active radiation after the storm were equally good predictors for the change in floristic composition and resistance. The analysis of the responses of

Orbital Disturbance Analysis due to the Lunar Gravitational Potential and Deviation Minimization through the Trajectory Control in Closed Loop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V

2013-01-01

A study evaluating the influence due to the lunar gravitational potential, modeled by spherical harmonics, on the gravity acceleration is accomplished according to the model presented in Konopliv (2001). This model provides the components x, y and z for the gravity acceleration at each moment of time along the artificial satellite orbit and it enables to consider the spherical harmonic degree and order up to100. Through a comparison between the gravity acceleration from a central field and the gravity acceleration provided by Konopliv's model, it is obtained the disturbing velocity increment applied to the vehicle. Then, through the inverse problem, the Keplerian elements of perturbed orbit of the satellite are calculated allowing the orbital motion analysis. Transfer maneuvers and orbital correction of lunar satellites are simulated considering the disturbance due to non-uniform gravitational potential of the Moon, utilizing continuous thrust and trajectory control in closed loop. The simulations are performed using the Spacecraft Trajectory Simulator-STRS, Rocco (2008), which evaluate the behavior of the orbital elements, fuel consumption and thrust applied to the satellite over the time

Long-term disturbance dynamics and resilience of tropical peat swamp forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Lydia E S; Bhagwat, Shonil A; Willis, Katherine J

2015-01-01

1. The coastal peat swamp forests of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, are undergoing rapid conversion, predominantly into oil palm plantations. This wetland ecosystem is assumed to have experienced insignificant disturbance in the past, persisting under a single ecologically-stable regime. However, there is limited knowledge of the past disturbance regime, long-term functioning and fundamentally the resilience of this ecosystem to changing natural and anthropogenic perturbations through time. 2. In this study, long-term ecological data sets from three degraded peatlands in Sarawak were collected to shed light on peat swamp forest dynamics. Fossil pollen and charcoal were counted in each sedimentary sequence to reconstruct vegetation and investigate responses to past environmental disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic. 3. Results demonstrate that peat swamp forest taxa have dominated these vegetation profiles throughout the last c . 2000-year period despite the presence of various drivers of disturbance. Evidence for episodes of climatic variability, predominantly linked to ENSO events, and wildfires is present throughout. However, in the last c . 500 years, burning and indicators of human disturbance have elevated beyond past levels at these sites, concurrent with a reduction in peat swamp forest pollen. 4. Two key insights have been gained through this palaeoecological analysis: (i) peat swamp forest vegetation has demonstrated resilience to disturbance caused by burning and climatic variability in Sarawak in the late Holocene, however (ii) coincident with increased fire combined with human impact c . 500 years ago, these communities started to decline. 5. Synthesis . Sarawak's coastal peat swamps have demonstrated resilience to past natural disturbances, with forest vegetation persisting through episodes of fire and climatic variability. However, palaeoecological data presented here suggest that recent, anthropogenic disturbances are of a greater magnitude

A test method for analysing disturbed ethernet data streams

Science.gov (United States)

Kreitlow, M.; Sabath, F.; Garbe, H.

2015-11-01

Ethernet connections, which are widely used in many computer networks, can suffer from electromagnetic interference. Typically, a degradation of the data transmission rate can be perceived as electromagnetic disturbances lead to corruption of data frames on the network media. In this paper a software-based measuring method is presented, which allows a direct assessment of the effects on the link layer. The results can directly be linked to the physical interaction without the influence of software related effects on higher protocol layers. This gives a simple tool for a quantitative analysis of the disturbance of an Ethernet connection based on time domain data. An example is shown, how the data can be used for further investigation of mechanisms and detection of intentional electromagnetic attacks.

Speckle disturbance limit in laser-based cinema projection systems

Science.gov (United States)

Verschaffelt, Guy; Roelandt, Stijn; Meuret, Youri; van den Broeck, Wendy; Kilpi, Katriina; Lievens, Bram; Jacobs, An; Janssens, Peter; Thienpont, Hugo

2015-09-01

In a multi-disciplinary effort, we investigate the level of speckle that can be tolerated in a laser cinema projector based on a quality of experience experiment with movie clips shown to a test audience in a real-life movie theatre setting. We identify a speckle disturbance threshold by statistically analyzing the observers’ responses for different values of the amount of speckle, which was monitored using a well-defined speckle measurement method. The analysis shows that the speckle perception of a human observer is not only dependent on the objectively measured amount of speckle, but it is also strongly influenced by the image content. The speckle disturbance limit for movies turns out to be substantially larger than that for still images, and hence is easier to attain.

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, E.; King, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Landhäusser, S.

2016-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the

Hydrological disturbance diminishes predator control in wetlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorn, Nathan J; Cook, Mark I

2015-11-01

Effects of predators on prey populations can be especially strong in aquatic ecosystems, but disturbances may mediate the strength of predator limitation and even allow outbreaks of some prey populations. In a two-year study we investigated the numerical responses of crayfish (Procambarus fallax) and small fishes (Poeciliidae and Fundulidae) to a brief hydrological disturbance in replicated freshwater wetlands with an experimental drying and large predatory fish reduction. The experiment and an in situ predation assay tested the component of the consumer stress model positing that disturbances release prey from predator limitation. In the disturbed wetlands, abundances of large predatory fish were seasonally reduced, similar to dynamics in the Everglades (southern Florida). Densities of small fish were unaffected by the disturbance, but crayfish densities, which were similar across all wetlands before drying, increased almost threefold in the year after the disturbance. Upon re-flooding, juvenile crayfish survival was inversely related to the abundance of large fish across wetlands, but we found no evidence for enhanced algal food quality. At a larger landscape scale (500 km2 of the Everglades), crayfish densities over eight years were positively correlated with the severity of local dry disturbances (up to 99 days dry) during the preceding dry season. In contrast, densities of small-bodied fishes in the same wetlands were seasonally depressed by dry disturbances. The results from our experimental wetland drought and the observations of crayfish densities in the Everglades represent a large-scale example of prey population release following a hydrological disturbance in a freshwater ecosystem. The conditions producing crayfish pulses in the Everglades appear consistent with the mechanics of the consumer stress model, and we suggest crayfish pulses may influence the number of nesting wading birds in the Everglades.

Sleep disturbances after non-cardiac surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenberg, Jacob

2001-01-01

. The sleep disturbances seem to be related to the magnitude of trauma and thereby to the surgical stress response and/or post-operative opioid administration. Post-operative sleep disturbances may contribute to the development of early post-operative fatigue, episodic hypoxaemia, haemodynamic instability......After major non-cardiac surgery sleep pattern is usually disturbed with initial suppression of rapid eye movement sleep with a subsequent rebound during the first post-operative week. Deep sleep is also suppressed for several days after the operation and subjective sleep quality is impaired...... and altered mental status, all with a potential negative effect on post-operative outcome. Minimizing surgical trauma and avoiding or minimizing use of opioids for pain relief may prevent or reduce post-operative sleep disturbances. Post-operative sleep pattern represents an important research field, since...

The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings

OpenAIRE

Sanford Fidell; Barbara Tabachnick; Karl S Pearsons

2010-01-01

Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft) and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis proc...

Information-disturbance tradeoff in quantum measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maccone, Lorenzo

2006-01-01

We present a simple information-disturbance tradeoff relation valid for any general measurement apparatus: The disturbance between input and output states is lower bounded by the information the apparatus provides in distinguishing these two states

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

Science.gov (United States)

Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

2018-02-16

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Xingyan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua; Wu, Liang

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Niño3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects. Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Prevention of Lower Extremity Injuries in Basketball

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jeffrey B.; Ford, Kevin R.; Nguyen, Anh-Dung; Terry, Lauren N.; Hegedus, Eric J.

2015-01-01

Context: Lower extremity injuries are common in basketball, yet it is unclear how prophylactic interventions affect lower extremity injury incidence rates. Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of current lower extremity injury prevention programs in basketball athletes, focusing on injury rates of (1) general lower extremity injuries, (2) ankle sprains, and (3) anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears. Data Sources: PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials were searched in January 2015. Study Selection: Studies were included if they were randomized controlled or prospective cohort trials, contained a population of competitive basketball athletes, and reported lower extremity injury incidence rates specific to basketball players. In total, 426 individual studies were identified. Of these, 9 met the inclusion criteria. One other study was found during a hand search of the literature, resulting in 10 total studies included in this meta-analysis. Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Level of Evidence: Level 2. Data Extraction: Details of the intervention (eg, neuromuscular vs external support), size of control and intervention groups, and number of injuries in each group were extracted from each study. Injury data were classified into 3 groups based on the anatomic diagnosis reported (general lower extremity injury, ankle sprain, ACL rupture). Results: Meta-analyses were performed independently for each injury classification. Results indicate that prophylactic programs significantly reduced the incidence of general lower extremity injuries (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85; P basketball athletes. Conclusion: In basketball players, prophylactic programs may be effective in reducing the risk of general lower extremity injuries and ankle sprains, yet not ACL injuries. PMID:26502412

Data co-processing for extreme scale analysis level II ASC milestone (4745).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rogers, David; Moreland, Kenneth D.; Oldfield, Ron A.; Fabian, Nathan D.

2013-03-01

Exascale supercomputing will embody many revolutionary changes in the hardware and software of high-performance computing. A particularly pressing issue is gaining insight into the science behind the exascale computations. Power and I/O speed con- straints will fundamentally change current visualization and analysis work ows. A traditional post-processing work ow involves storing simulation results to disk and later retrieving them for visualization and data analysis. However, at exascale, scien- tists and analysts will need a range of options for moving data to persistent storage, as the current o ine or post-processing pipelines will not be able to capture the data necessary for data analysis of these extreme scale simulations. This Milestone explores two alternate work ows, characterized as in situ and in transit, and compares them. We nd each to have its own merits and faults, and we provide information to help pick the best option for a particular use.

The Storm Time Evolution of the Ionospheric Disturbance Plasma Drifts

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ruilong; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Kuai, Jiawei

2017-11-01

In this paper, we use the C/NOFS and ROCSAT-1 satellites observations to analyze the storm time evolution of the disturbance plasma drifts in a 24 h local time scale during three magnetic storms driven by long-lasting southward IMF Bz. The disturbance plasma drifts during the three storms present some common features in the periods dominated by the disturbance dynamo. The newly formed disturbance plasma drifts are upward and westward at night, and downward and eastward during daytime. Further, the disturbance plasma drifts are gradually evolved to present significant local time shifts. The westward disturbance plasma drifts gradually migrate from nightside to dayside. Meanwhile, the dayside downward disturbance plasma drifts become enhanced and shift to later local time. The local time shifts in disturbance plasma drifts are suggested to be mainly attributed to the evolution of the disturbance winds. The strong disturbance winds arisen around midnight can constantly corotate to later local time. At dayside the westward and equatorward disturbance winds can drive the F region dynamo to produce the poleward and westward polarization electric fields (or the westward and downward disturbance drifts). The present results indicate that the disturbance winds corotated to later local time can affect the local time features of the disturbance dynamo electric field.

Multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation and upper extremity rehabilitation in stroke: A review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tedesco Triccas, L; Burridge, J H; Hughes, A M; Pickering, R M; Desikan, M; Rothwell, J C; Verheyden, G

2016-01-01

To systematically review the methodology in particular treatment options and outcomes and the effect of multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) with rehabilitation programmes for upper extremity recovery post stroke. A search was conducted for randomised controlled trials involving tDCS and rehabilitation for the upper extremity in stroke. Quality of included studies was analysed using the Modified Downs and Black form. The extent of, and effect of variation in treatment parameters such as anodal, cathodal and bi-hemispheric tDCS on upper extremity outcome measures of impairment and activity were analysed using meta-analysis. Nine studies (371 participants with acute, sub-acute and chronic stroke) were included. Different methodologies of tDCS and upper extremity intervention, outcome measures and timing of assessments were identified. Real tDCS combined with rehabilitation had a small non-significant effect of +0.11 (p=0.44) and +0.24 (p=0.11) on upper extremity impairments and activities at post-intervention respectively. Various tDCS methods have been used in stroke rehabilitation. The evidence so far is not statistically significant, but is suggestive of, at best, a small beneficial effect on upper extremity impairment. Future research should focus on which patients and rehabilitation programmes are likely to respond to different tDCS regimes. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the cause of IMF By related mid- and low latitude magnetic disturbances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Christiansen, Freddy; Olsen, Nils

2007-01-01

An analysis of the effect of the IMF By on near-Earth low and mid-latitude magnetic disturbances is presented. In particular the contribution from field-aligned currents ( FACs) connected to the polar regions is investigated. Based on statistically determined high-latitude FAC patterns for various...... that the long-distance effect of the high-latitude FACs constitute the major source to IMF By and B-z related magnetic east-west disturbances at mid-and low latitudes....

Managing Sleep Disturbances in Cirrhosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xun Zhao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Sleep disturbances, particularly daytime sleepiness and insomnia, are common problems reported by patients suffering from liver cirrhosis. Poor sleep negatively impacts patients’ quality of life and cognitive functions and increases mortality. Although sleep disturbances can be an early sign of hepatic encephalopathy (HE, many patients without HE still complain of poor quality sleep. The pathophysiology of these disturbances is not fully understood but is believed to be linked to impaired hepatic melatonin metabolism. This paper provides an overview for the clinician of common comorbidities contributing to poor sleep in patients with liver disease, mainly restless leg syndrome and obstructive sleep apnea. It discusses nondrug and pharmacologic treatment options in these patients, such as the use of light therapy and histamine (H1 blockers.

Pain, Sleep Disturbance, and Quality of Life Among Palestinian Patients Diagnosed with Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Dreidi, Mu'taz M; Hamdan-Mansour, Ayman M

2016-12-01

The objective of this descriptive study is to explore the relationships between pain, sleep disturbance, and quality of life among Palestinian patients diagnosed with cancer in the West Bank. A cross-sectional, descriptive-correlational design was used to collect data from 184 patients with cancer. The quality of life questionnaire, visual analogue pain scale, and physical health status were used in data collection. The results showed that the mean score for pain was 5, the best functioning was for cognitive scale (M = 75, SD = 29), the worst symptoms experienced by patients was appetite loss (M = 47, SD = 35), a moderate global health status (M = 53, SD = 27), and the mean for sleep disturbance was 43 (SD = 35). Pain and sleep disturbance showed high negative correlations with functional scales of quality of life and positive with symptom scales. The findings showed that the co-occurrence of pain and sleep disturbance was negatively correlated with quality of life (QoL) and positively with symptom scales. The regression analysis revealed that pain and sleep disturbance accounted for a significant proportion of variance in the QoL (p quality among Palestinian patients with cancer.

Disturbance alters local-regional richness relationships in appalachian forests

Science.gov (United States)

Belote, R.T.; Sanders, N.J.; Jones, R.H.

2009-01-01

Whether biological diversity within communities is limited by local interactions or regional species pools remains an important question in ecology. In this paper, we investigate how an experimentally applied tree-harvesting disturbance gradient influenced local-regional richness relationships. Plant species richness was measured at three spatial scales (2 ha = regional; 576 m2 and 1 m2 = local) on three occasions (one year pre-disturbance, one year post-disturbance, and 10 years post-disturbance) across five disturbance treatments (uncut control through clearcut) replicated throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We investigated whether species richness in 576-m2 plots and 1-m2 subplots depended on species richness in 2-ha experimental units and whether this relationship changed through time before and after canopy disturbance. We found that, before disturbance, the relationship between local and regional richness was weak or nonexistent. One year after disturbance local richness was a positive function of regional richness, because local sites were colonized from the regional species pool. Ten years after disturbance, the positive relationship persisted, but the slope had decreased by half. These results suggest that disturbance can set the stage for strong influences of regional species pools on local community assembly in temperate forests. However, as time since disturbance increases, local controls on community assembly decouple the relationships between regional and local diversity. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Design of disturbances control model at automotive company

Science.gov (United States)

Marie, I. A.; Sari, D. K.; Astuti, P.; Teorema, M.

2017-12-01

The discussion was conducted at PT. XYZ which produces automotive components and motorcycle products. The company produced X123 type cylinder head which is a motor vehicle forming component. The disturbances in the production system has affected the company performance in achieving the target of Key Performance Indicator (KPI). Currently, the determination of the percentage of safety stock of cylinder head products is not in accordance to the control limits set by the company (60% - 80%), and tends to exceed the control limits that cause increasing the inventory wastage in the company. This study aims to identify the production system disturbances that occurs in the production process of manufacturing components of X123 type cylinder head products and design the control model of disturbance to obtain control action and determine the safety stock policy in accordance with the needs of the company. The design stage has been done based on the Disturbance Control Model which already existing and customized with the company need in controlling the production system disturbances at the company. The design of the disturbances control model consists of sub-model of the risk level of the disturbance, sub-model of action status, sub-model action control of the disturbance, and sub-model of determining the safety stock. The model can assist the automotive company in taking the decision to perform the disturbances control action in production system cylinder head while controlling the percentage of the safety stock.

Characterizing sleeping habits and disturbances among Saudi adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Kobrosly, Samer Y; Al-Badr, Ahmad H; Salloum, Nourhan A; Altannir, Youssef M

2016-12-01

To characterize sleeping habits, assess sleep disturbance prevalence, and identify associated factors among Saudi adults.  Methods: A total of 1720 adults were approached for this observational cross-sectional study between October 2014 and March 2015. The study took place in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. We used a questionnaire to describe sleeping characteristics in relation to existing chronic diseases, smoking status, obesity, daily performance and sociodemographic variables. Results: The response rate was 79.6% (1369 participants), 61.6% have or may have sleeping disturbances of which 18.6% claimed either slowed or stopped breathing during sleep. Women reported a higher prevalence of sleep disturbances (65.2%). Feeling tired was significantly associated with sleep disturbance (49% versus 19.7%) (p greater than 0.001). Approximately 78.4% of those with sleep disturbance significantly believed that their ability to perform daily tasks is affected (p=0.005). Moreover, smoking and obesity were significantly associated with sleep disturbances (p less than 0.01). Participants with asthma, hypertension, chronic heart disease, and diabetes mellitus reported significantly more sleeping disturbance (p=0.016 to p=0.001). Conclusions: Sleep disturbances are associated with obesity, smoking, chronic health conditions, and lower performance among  Saudi adults.

Extremes in random fields a theory and its applications

CERN Document Server

Yakir, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Presents a useful new technique for analyzing the extreme-value behaviour of random fields Modern science typically involves the analysis of increasingly complex data. The extreme values that emerge in the statistical analysis of complex data are often of particular interest. This book focuses on the analytical approximations of the statistical significance of extreme values. Several relatively complex applications of the technique to problems that emerge in practical situations are presented.  All the examples are difficult to analyze using classical methods, and as a result, the author pr

Bivariate extreme value with application to PM10 concentration analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Amin, Nor Azrita Mohd; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2015-05-01

This study is focus on a bivariate extreme of renormalized componentwise maxima with generalized extreme value distribution as a marginal function. The limiting joint distribution of several parametric models are presented. Maximum likelihood estimation is employed for parameter estimations and the best model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion. The weekly and monthly componentwise maxima series are extracted from the original observations of daily maxima PM10 data for two air quality monitoring stations located in Pasir Gudang and Johor Bahru. The 10 years data are considered for both stations from year 2001 to 2010. The asymmetric negative logistic model is found as the best fit bivariate extreme model for both weekly and monthly maxima componentwise series. However the dependence parameters show that the variables for weekly maxima series is more dependence to each other compared to the monthly maxima.

Modelling of nuclear power plant control and instrumentation elements for automatic disturbance and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollo, E.

1985-08-01

Present Final Report summarizes results of R/D work done within IAEA-VEIKI (Institute for Electrical Power Research, Budapest, Hungary) Research Contract No. 3210 during 3 years' period of 01.08.1982 - 31.08.1985. Chapter 1 lists main research objectives of the project. Main results obtained are summarized in Chapters 2 and 3. Outcomes from development of failure modelling methodologies and their application for C/I components of WWER-440 units are as follows (Chapter 2): improvement of available ''failure mode and effect analysis'' methods and mini-fault tree structures usable for automatic disturbance (DAS) and reliability (RAS) analysis; general classification and determination of functional failure modes of WWER-440 NPP C/I components; set up of logic models for motor operated control valves and rod control/drive mechanism. Results of development of methods and their application for reliability modelling of NPP components and systems cover (Chapter 3): development of an algorithm (computer code COMPREL) for component-related failure and reliability parameter calculation; reliability analysis of PAKS II NPP diesel system; definition of functional requirements for reliability data bank (RDB) in WWER-440 units. Determination of RDB input/output data structure and data manipulation services. Methods used are a-priori failure mode and effect analysis, combined fault tree/event tree modelling technique, structural computer programming, probability theory application to nuclear field

Analysis of students’ nervous system’s typological properties, in aspect of response to extreme situation, with the help of multi-dimensional analysis

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Z.L. Kozina

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose: determination of objective and subjective characteristics of students’ with different properties of nervous system fear of heights. Material: In the research 10 students of 18-19 years old age, who did not practice sports, participated. The students fulfilled one exercises: passing suspended ferriage in hiking. This exercise gives subjective perception of height and creates artificial conditions for appearing of fear. He exercise was fulfilled under all required safety measures and supervised by experienced instructor. Cluster and discriminant analysis were used. Results: we have shown that is possible to divide people into groups by indicators of functional changes in extreme situation in combination with indicators of psycho-physiological potentials and properties of nervous system. We have found that the most significant indicators for distribution of students into groups by individual typological properties are speed and accuracy of passing of psycho-physiological tests with different modes of signals’ supply as well as functional changes before exercise of extreme character. Conclusions: It was determined that students with strong type of nervous system had confidently less heart beats rate before fulfillment of extreme exercise than the students with weak type of nervous system. Subjective feeling of fear before fulfillment of extreme exercise was also confidently less in representatives of strong type of nervous system.

Acute Appendicitis, Somatosensory Disturbances ("Head Zones"), and the Differential Diagnosis of Anterior Cutaneous Nerve Entrapment Syndrome (ACNES).

Science.gov (United States)

Roumen, Rudi M H; Vening, Wouter; Wouda, Rosanne; Scheltinga, Marc M

2017-06-01

Anterior cutaneous nerve entrapment syndrome (ACNES) is a neuropathic abdominal wall pain syndrome typically characterized by locally altered skin sensations. On the other hand, visceral disease may also be associated with similar painful and altered skin sensations ("Head zones"). Aim of the study was to determine if patients with acute appendicitis demonstrated somatosensory disturbances in the corresponding right lower quadrant Head zone. The presence of somatosensory disturbances such as hyperalgesia, hypoesthesia, altered cool perception, or positive pinch test was determined in 100 patients before and after an appendectomy. Potential associations between altered skin sensations and various items including age, sex, history, body temperature, C-reactive protein (CRP), leukocyte count, and type of appendicopathy (normal, inflamed, necrotic, or perforated) were assessed. A total of 39 patients demonstrated at least one right lower abdominal quadrant skin somatosensory disturbance before the laparoscopic appendectomy. However, locoregional skin sensation normalized in all but 2 patients 2 weeks postoperatively. No differences were found concerning patient characteristics or type of appendicopathy between populations with or without altered lower abdominal skin sensations. A substantial portion of patients with acute appendicitis demonstrate right lower abdominal somatosensory disturbances that are similar as observed in acute ACNES. Both may be different sides of the same coin and are possibly expressions of segmental phenomena as described by Head. McBurney's point, a landmark area of maximum pain in acute appendicitis, is possibly a trigger point within a Head zone. Differentiating acute appendicitis from acute ACNES is extremely difficult, but imaging and observation may aid in the diagnostic process.

Interaction of historical and nonhistorical disturbances maintains native plant communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, K W; Svejcar, T J; Bates, J D

2009-09-01

Historical disturbance regimes are often considered a critical element in maintaining native plant communities. However, the response of plant communities to disturbance may be fundamentally altered as a consequence of invasive plants, climate change, or prior disturbances. The appropriateness of historical disturbance patterns under modern conditions and the interactions among disturbances are issues that ecologists must address to protect and restore native plant communities. We evaluated the response of Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis (Beetle & A. Young) S.L. Welsh plant communities to their historical disturbance regime compared to other disturbance regimes. The historical disturbance regime of these plant communities was periodic fires with minimal grazing by large herbivores. We also investigated the influence of prior disturbance (grazing) on the response of these communities to subsequent disturbance (burning). Treatments were: (1) ungrazed (livestock grazing excluded since 1936) and unburned, (2) grazed and unburned, (3) ungrazed and burned (burned in 1993), and (4) grazed and burned. The ungrazed-burned treatment emulated the historical disturbance regime. Vegetation cover, density, and biomass production were measured the 12th, 13th, and 14th year post-burning. Prior to burning the presence of Bromus tectorum L., an exotic annual grass, was minimal (resilience to more severe disturbances. Modern deviations from historical conditions can alter ecosystem response to disturbances, thus restoring the historical disturbance regime may not be an appropriate strategy for all ecosystems.

Quercus rubra-associated ectomycorrhizal fungal communities of disturbed urban sites and mature forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Karpati, Amy S; Handel, Steven N; Dighton, John; Horton, Thomas R

2011-08-01

The presence and quality of the belowground mycorrhizal fungal community could greatly influence plant community structure and host species response. This study tests whether mycorrhizal fungal communities in areas highly impacted by anthropogenic disturbance and urbanization are less species rich or exhibit lower host root colonization rates when compared to those of less disturbed systems. Using a soil bioassay, we sampled the ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) communities associating with Quercus rubra (northern red oak) seedlings in soil collected from seven sites: two mature forest reference sites and five urban sites of varying levels of disturbance. Morphological and polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analyses of fungi colonizing root tips revealed that colonization rates and fungal species richness were significantly lower on root systems of seedlings grown in disturbed site soils. Analysis of similarity showed that EMF community composition was not significantly different among several urban site soils but did differ significantly between mature forest sites and all but one urban site. We identified a suite of fungal species that occurred across several urban sites. Lack of a diverse community of belowground mutualists could be a constraint on urban plant community development, especially of late-successional woodlands. Analysis of urban EMF communities can add to our understanding of urban plant community structure and should be addressed during ecological assessment before pragmatic decisions to restore habitats are framed.

300 Area Disturbance Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

LL Hale; MK Wright; NA Cadoret

1999-01-07

The objective of this study was to define areas of previous disturbance in the 300 Area of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site to eliminate these areas from the cultural resource review process, reduce cultural resource monitoring costs, and allow cultural resource specialists to focus on areas where subsurface disturbance is minimal or nonexistent. Research into available sources suggests that impacts from excavations have been significant wherever the following construction activities have occurred: building basements and pits, waste ponds, burial grounds, trenches, installation of subsurface pipelines, power poles, water hydrants, and well construction. Beyond the areas just mentioned, substrates in the' 300 Area consist of a complex, multidimen- sional mosaic composed of undisturbed stratigraphy, backfill, and disturbed sediments; Four Geographic Information System (GIS) maps were created to display known areas of disturbance in the 300 Area. These maps contain information gleaned from a variety of sources, but the primary sources include the Hanford GIS database system, engineer drawings, and historic maps. In addition to these maps, several assumptions can be made about areas of disturbance in the 300 Area as a result of this study: o o Buried pipelines are not always located where they are mapped. As a result, cultural resource monitors or specialists should not depend on maps depicting subsurface pipelines for accurate locations of previous disturbance. Temporary roads built in the early 1940s were placed on layers of sand and gravel 8 to 12 in. thick. Given this information, it is likely that substrates beneath these early roads are only minimally disturbed. Building foundations ranged from concrete slabs no more than 6 to 8 in. thick to deeply excavated pits and basements. Buildings constructed with slab foundations are more numerous than may be expected, and minimally disturbed substrates may be expected in these locations. Historic

DIRECTIONS OF EXTREME TOURISM IN UKRAINE

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L. V. Martseniuk

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose. In the world market of tourist services the extreme tourism is very popular, as it does not require the significant financial costs and enables year on year to increase the offers of holiday packages, associated with active travel. Ukraine has significant potential for the development of extreme kinds of rest, but it is not developed enough. Forms of extreme tourism are unknown for domestic tourists, and therefore, they formed a negative attitude. The aim of the article is the analysis of extreme resort potential of Ukraine and promotion of the development of extreme tourism destinations in the travel market. Theoretical and methodological basis of research is the system analysis of the problems of ensuring the competitiveness of the tourism industry, theoretical principles of economic science in the field of the effectiveness of extreme tourism and management of tourist flows. Methodology. The author offers the directions of tourist flows control, which differ from the current expansion of services to tourists in Ukraine. The development of extreme tourism with the help of co-operation of railways and sport federations was proposed. Findings. During the research the author proved that the implementation of the tasks will be promote: 1 increase in budget revenues at all levels of the inner extreme tourism; 2 raise the image of Ukraine and Ukrainian Railways; 3 increase the share of tourism and resorts in the gross domestic product to the level of developed countries; 4 bringing the number of employees in tourism and resorts to the level of developed countries; 5 the creation of an effective system of monitoring the quality of tourist services; 6 the creation of an attractive investment climate for attracting the investment in the broad development of tourism, engineering and transport and municipal infrastructure; 7 improvement the safety of tourists, ensure the effective protection of their rights and legitimate interests and

Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis for extreme events using Archimedean copula. Case study: Lower Tunjuelo River basin (Colombia)

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez, Wilmar

2017-04-01

By analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events we can prevent or reduce the threat and risk. Many water resources projects require joint probability distributions of random variables such as precipitation intensity and duration, which can not be independent with each other. The problem of defining a probability model for observations of several dependent variables is greatly simplified by the joint distribution in terms of their marginal by taking copulas. This document presents a general framework set frequency analysis bivariate and multivariate using Archimedean copulas for extreme events of hydroclimatological nature such as severe storms. This analysis was conducted in the lower Tunjuelo River basin in Colombia for precipitation events. The results obtained show that for a joint study of the intensity-duration-frequency, IDF curves can be obtained through copulas and thus establish more accurate and reliable information from design storms and associated risks. It shows how the use of copulas greatly simplifies the study of multivariate distributions that introduce the concept of joint return period used to represent the needs of hydrological designs properly in frequency analysis.

Constructions of identity through music in extreme-right subcultures

OpenAIRE

Stroud, Joseph James Iain

2014-01-01

This thesis examines the musical cultures associated with extreme-right politics, considering not only what this music projects about extreme-right ideology, but also the various ways in which music functions as part of a political subculture. This analysis extends beyond the stereotypical extreme-right music associated with the skinhead subculture, often referred to as Oi!, to incorporate extreme-right engagement with genres such as metal, folk, country and classical music. Th...

Exploring Associations between Problematic Internet Use, Depressive Symptoms and Sleep Disturbance among Southern Chinese Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yafei Tan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The primary aim of this study was to examine associations between problematic Internet use, depression and sleep disturbance, and explore whether there were differential effects of problematic Internet use and depression on sleep disturbance. A total of 1772 adolescents who participated in the Shantou Adolescent Mental Health Survey were recruited in 2012 in Shantou, China. The Chinese version of the Internet Addiction Test (IAT was used to evaluate the prevalence and severity of Internet addiction. The Chinese version of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI, a 10-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10, and other socio-demographic measures were also completed. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the mediating effect of problematic Internet use and depression on sleep disturbance. Among the participants, 17.2% of adolescents met the criteria for problematic Internet use, 40.0% were also classified as suffering from sleep disturbance, and 54.4% of students had depressive symptoms. Problematic Internet use was significantly associated with depressive symptoms and sleep disturbance. The correlation between depressive symptoms and sleep disturbance was highly significant. Both problematic Internet use (β = 0.014; Sobel test Z = 12.7, p < 0.001 and depression (β = 0.232; Sobel test Z = 3.39, p < 0.001 had partially mediating effects on sleep disturbance and depression was of greater importance for sleep disturbance than problematic Internet use. There is a high prevalence of problematic Internet use, depression and sleep disturbance among high school students in southern China, and problematic Internet use and depressive symptoms are strongly associated with sleep disturbance. This study provides evidence that problematic Internet use and depression have partially mediating effects on sleep disturbance. These results are important for clinicians and policy makers with useful information for

Dynamic surface tracking controller design for a constrained hypersonic vehicle based on disturbance observer

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Fang Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The tracking control problem of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle subjects to aerodynamic parameter uncertainty and input constraint is investigated by combining nonlinear disturbance observer and dynamic surface control. To design controller simply, a control-oriented model is firstly derived and divided into two subsystems, velocity subsystem and altitude subsystem based on the engineering backgrounds of flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle. In every subsystem, compounded disturbances are included to consider aerodynamic uncertainty and the effect of the flexible modes. Then, disturbance observer is not only used to handle the compounded disturbance but also to handle the input constraint, where the estimation error converges to a random small region through appropriately choosing the observer parameters. To sequel, the disturbance observer–based robust control scheme and the disturbance observer-based dynamic surface control scheme are developed for the velocity subsystem and altitude subsystem, respectively. Besides, novel filters are designed to alleviate the problem of “explosion of terms” induced by backstepping method. On the basis of Lyapunov stability theory, the presented control scheme can assure that tracking error converges to an arbitrarily small neighborhood around zero by rigorous theoretical analysis. At last, simulation result shows the effectiveness of the presented control method.

Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seong-Gil; Kim, Wan-Soo

2018-05-15

BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. MATERIAL AND METHODS This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. RESULTS In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (psimple correlation analysis, all variables that passed the correlation analysis procedure had significant influence (plinear regression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). CONCLUSIONS Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement.

Effects of neuromuscular electrical stimulation on arterial hemodynamic properties and body composition in paretic upper extremities of patients with subacute stroke

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Shu-Chun Huang

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Neuromuscular electric stimulation (NMES induces repeated muscular contraction, possibly promoting the perfusion/oxygenation of the regional tissues. It remains unclear how NMES influences vascular hemodynamic property and segmental fluid distribution/composition in paretic extremities of hemiplegic patients. Methods: Eleven hemiplegic patients aged 62.6 ± 12.5 years in the subacute stage of stroke received NMES for paretic wrist extensor and flexor muscles 30 min daily, 5 days per week for 4 weeks. The non-paretic upper extremities (NPUE that did not receive NMES served as control. Distribution of fluid to intra/extracellular milieu and arterial hemodynamic properties were determined by using the multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance and pulse wave analysis, respectively. Results: Compared with NPUE without NMES, paretic upper extremity (PUE with NMES revealed a significantly less decrease in arterial blood flow, impedance quotient, slope quotient, and less increase in crest width and crest time of arterial pulse wave. NMES for 4 weeks increased body cell mass in PUE. Furthermore, NPUE without NMES reduced intracellular water, whereas PUE with NMES retarded loss of intracellular water after stroke. Conclusion: NMES therapy increases body cell mass, attenuates reduction of intracellular water, and alleviates arterial hemodynamic disturbance in PUE in subacute stroke. However, stroke-related physical deconditioning may negatively regulate body composition and impair hemodynamic function in NPUE.

The reciprocal associations between identity disturbance, relationship disturbance, and suicidal ideation among Chinese adolescents: A three-wave cross-lag study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Yaxuan; Zhang, Xu; You, Jianing; Jiang, Yongqiang; Lin, Min-Pei; Leung, Freedom

2017-12-18

Adolescence is a developmental period associated with a heightened risk for suicidal ideation. During this phase of life, individuals tend to focus on both intrapersonal self and interpersonal relationships. Thus, it is of much significance to understand the roles of intrapersonal and interpersonal factors in the development of suicidal ideation among adolescents. The present study examined the reciprocal associations between identity disturbance, relationship disturbance, and suicidal ideation by using a three-wave cross-lag model in a sample of adolescents. A number of 3,600 Chinese adolescents (56.6% females, mean age = 14.58 years) completed questionnaires assessing the three main study variables as well as depressive symptoms, anxiety, and suicidal attempts three times at 6-month intervals. After controlling for gender, age, depressive symptoms, anxiety, and suicidal attempts, relationship disturbance significantly predicted suicidal ideation over time, and vice versa. Suicidal ideation significantly predicted identity disturbance over time, but not vice versa. We also found the mediating effect of relationship disturbance in the path from identity disturbance to suicidal ideation. The results suggested the important role of previous relationship disturbance in predicting later suicidal ideation. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings were discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

2014-05-01

The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

Denudational slope processes and slope response to global climate changes and other disturbances: insights from the Nepal Himalayas.

Science.gov (United States)

Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Hillslope geomorphology results from a large range of denudational processes mainly controlled by relief, structure, lithology, climate, land-cover and land use. In most areas of the world, the "critical zone" concept is a good integrator of denudation that operates on a long-term scale. However, in large and high mountain areas, short-time scale factors often play a significant role in the denudational pattern, accelerating and/or delaying the transfer of denudation products and fluxes, and creating specific, spatially limited disturbances. We focus on the Nepal Himalayas, where the wide altitudinal range of bio-climatic zones and the intense geodynamic activity create a complex mosaic of landforms, as expressed by the present geomorphology of mountain slopes. On the basis of examples selected in the different Himalayan mountain belts (Siwaliks hills, middle mountains, High Himalaya), we illustrate different types of slopes and disturbances induced by active tectonics, climate extremes, and climate warming trends. Special attention is paid to recent events, such as landslide damming, triggered by either intense rainfalls (Kali Gandaki and Sun Kosi valleys) or the last April-May 2015 Gorkha seismic sequence (southern Khumbu). Lastly, references to older, larger events show that despite the highly dynamic environment, landforms caused by large magnitude disturbances may persist in the landscape in the long term.

Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Bright Source List

Science.gov (United States)

Malina, Roger F.; Marshall, Herman L.; Antia, Behram; Christian, Carol A.; Dobson, Carl A.; Finley, David S.; Fruscione, Antonella; Girouard, Forrest R.; Hawkins, Isabel; Jelinsky, Patrick

1994-01-01

Initial results from the analysis of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky survey (58-740 A) and deep survey (67-364 A) are presented through the EUVE Bright Source List (BSL). The BSL contains 356 confirmed extreme ultraviolet (EUV) point sources with supporting information, including positions, observed EUV count rates, and the identification of possible optical counterparts. One-hundred twenty-six sources have been detected longward of 200 A.

Depression Disturbs Germany

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

The suicide of Robert Enke,the goalkeeper of the Germany national football team who had battled depression for years,stunned the country and cast depression into the national spotlight as a disturbing disease.

Correlations between computerized tomography of the head and motor developmental disturbances of children with cerebral palsy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Yu-Herng

1981-01-01

Two hundred and eighty-two children with cerebral palsy (C.P.) and thirty-seven normal children were studied by computerized tomography (C.T.) of the head for finding out the correlations between the organic damage of the brain and the motor developmental disturbance. The abnormal findings of C.T. were: enlargement of the ventricular system, high density area, low density area and porencephalus, enlargement of the sulcus and anomaly of the medial structure. Enlargement of the ventricular system seemed to have correlation with spasticity; the portion and the extent of the enlargement corresponded to the affected extremities and the severity of the spasticity. Children of other types also showed various abnormal C.T. findings but, in general, less than that of spastic types. The prognosis of the motor development of C.P. children cannot be predicted by serial C.T. examinations strictly, because early treatment could cause improvement to that of these children. However, it is of worthy notice that C.T. is an effective method of helping to diagnose the motor developmental disturbance in earlier childhood. (author)

Exploring Associations between Problematic Internet Use, Depressive Symptoms and Sleep Disturbance among Southern Chinese Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yafei; Chen, Ying; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2016-03-14

The primary aim of this study was to examine associations between problematic Internet use, depression and sleep disturbance, and explore whether there were differential effects of problematic Internet use and depression on sleep disturbance. A total of 1772 adolescents who participated in the Shantou Adolescent Mental Health Survey were recruited in 2012 in Shantou, China. The Chinese version of the Internet Addiction Test (IAT) was used to evaluate the prevalence and severity of Internet addiction. The Chinese version of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), a 10-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10), and other socio-demographic measures were also completed. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the mediating effect of problematic Internet use and depression on sleep disturbance. Among the participants, 17.2% of adolescents met the criteria for problematic Internet use, 40.0% were also classified as suffering from sleep disturbance, and 54.4% of students had depressive symptoms. Problematic Internet use was significantly associated with depressive symptoms and sleep disturbance. The correlation between depressive symptoms and sleep disturbance was highly significant. Both problematic Internet use (β = 0.014; Sobel test Z = 12.7, p Internet use. There is a high prevalence of problematic Internet use, depression and sleep disturbance among high school students in southern China, and problematic Internet use and depressive symptoms are strongly associated with sleep disturbance. This study provides evidence that problematic Internet use and depression have partially mediating effects on sleep disturbance. These results are important for clinicians and policy makers with useful information for prevention and intervention efforts.

The role of recurrent disturbances for ecosystem multifunctionality.

Science.gov (United States)

Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Joanna; Hietanen, Susanna; Josefson, Alf B; Lukkari, Kaarina; Norkko, Alf

2013-10-01

Ecosystem functioning is threatened by an increasing number of anthropogenic stressors, creating a legacy of disturbance that undermines ecosystem resilience. However, few empirical studies have assessed to what extent an ecosystem can tolerate repeated disturbances and sustain its multiple functions. By inducing increasingly recurring hypoxic disturbances to a sedimentary ecosystem, we show that the majority of individual ecosystem functions experience gradual degradation patterns in response to repetitive pulse disturbances. The degradation in overall ecosystem functioning was, however, evident at an earlier stage than for single ecosystem functions and was induced after a short pulse of hypoxia (i.e., three days), which likely reduced ecosystem resistance to further hypoxic perturbations. The increasing number of repeated pulse disturbances gradually moved the system closer to a press response. In addition to the disturbance regime, the changes in benthic trait composition as well as habitat heterogeneity were important for explaining the variability in overall ecosystem functioning. Our results suggest that disturbance-induced responses across multiple ecosystem functions can serve as a warning signal for losses of the adaptive capacity of an ecosystem, and might at an early stage provide information to managers and policy makers when remediation efforts should be initiated.

Potential increases in natural disturbance rates could offset forest management impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, John B.; Jensen, Nicholas R.; Domke, Grant M.; D’Amato, Anthony W.

2013-01-01

Forested ecosystems contain the majority of the world’s terrestrial carbon, and forest management has implications for regional and global carbon cycling. Carbon stored in forests changes with stand age and is affected by natural disturbance and timber harvesting. We examined how harvesting and disturbance interact to influence forest carbon stocks over the Superior National Forest, in northern Minnesota. Forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program were used to characterize current forest age structure and quantify the relationship between age and carbon stocks for eight forest types. Using these findings, we simulated the impact of alternative management scenarios and natural disturbance rates on forest-wide terrestrial carbon stocks over a 100-year horizon. Under low natural mortality, forest-wide total ecosystem carbon stocks increased when 0% or 40% of planned harvests were implemented; however, the majority of forest-wide carbon stocks decreased with greater harvest levels and elevated disturbance rates. Our results suggest that natural disturbance has the potential to exert stronger influence on forest carbon stocks than timber harvesting activities and that maintaining carbon stocks over the long-term may prove difficult if disturbance frequency increases in response to climate change.

Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme daily precipitation amounts in Southeastern Canada using a peaks-over-threshold approach

Science.gov (United States)

Thiombiano, Alida N.; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; El-Jabi, Nassir

2017-07-01

In this paper, a statistical inference of Southeastern Canada extreme daily precipitation amounts is proposed using a classical nonstationary peaks-over-threshold model. Indeed, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is fitted to excess time series derived from annual averages of independent precipitation amount events above a fixed threshold, the 99th percentile. Only the scale parameter of the fitted distribution is allowed to vary as a function of a covariate. This variability is modeled using B-spline function. Nonlinear correlation and cross-wavelet analysis allowed identifying two dominant climate indices as covariates in the study area, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific North American (PNA). The nonstationary frequency analysis showed that there is an east-west behavior of the AO index effects on extreme daily precipitation amounts in the study area. Indeed, the higher quantiles of these events are conditional to the AO positive phase in Atlantic Canada, while those in the more southeastern part of Canada, especially in Southern Quebec and Ontario, are negatively related to AO. The negative phase of PNA also gives the best significant correlation in these regions. Moreover, a regression analysis between AO (PNA) index and conditional quantiles provided slope values for the positive phase of the index on the one hand and the negative phase and on the other hand. This statistic allows computing a slope ratio which permits to sustain the nonlinear relation assumption between climate indices and precipitation and the development of the nonstationary GPD model for Southeastern Canada extremes precipitation modeling.

Forest Disturbance Mapping Using Dense Synthetic Landsat/MODIS Time-Series and Permutation-Based Disturbance Index Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Frantz

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatio-temporal information on process-based forest loss is essential for a wide range of applications. Despite remote sensing being the only feasible means of monitoring forest change at regional or greater scales, there is no retrospectively available remote sensor that meets the demand of monitoring forests with the required spatial detail and guaranteed high temporal frequency. As an alternative, we employed the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM to produce a dense synthetic time series by fusing Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS nadir Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF adjusted reflectance. Forest loss was detected by applying a multi-temporal disturbance detection approach implementing a Disturbance Index-based detection strategy. The detection thresholds were permutated with random numbers for the normal distribution in order to generate a multi-dimensional threshold confidence area. As a result, a more robust parameterization and a spatially more coherent detection could be achieved. (i The original Landsat time series; (ii synthetic time series; and a (iii combined hybrid approach were used to identify the timing and extent of disturbances. The identified clearings in the Landsat detection were verified using an annual woodland clearing dataset from Queensland’s Statewide Landcover and Trees Study. Disturbances caused by stand-replacing events were successfully identified. The increased temporal resolution of the synthetic time series indicated promising additional information on disturbance timing. The results of the hybrid detection unified the benefits of both approaches, i.e., the spatial quality and general accuracy of the Landsat detection and the increased temporal information of synthetic time series. Results indicated that a temporal improvement in the detection of the disturbance date could be achieved relative to the irregularly spaced Landsat

Changes in Soil Fungal Community Structure with Increasing Disturbance Frequency.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Hyunjun; Kim, Mincheol; Tripathi, Binu; Adams, Jonathan

2017-07-01

Although disturbance is thought to be important in many ecological processes, responses of fungal communities to soil disturbance have been little studied experimentally. We subjected a soil microcosm to physical disturbance, at a range of frequencies designed to simulate ecological disturbance events. We analyzed the fungal community structure using Illumina HiSeq sequencing of the ITS1 region. Fungal diversity was found to decline with the increasing disturbance frequencies, with no sign of the "humpback" pattern found in many studies of larger sedentary organisms. There is thus no evidence of an effect of release from competition resulting from moderate disturbance-which suggests that competition and niche overlap may not be important in limiting soil fungal diversity. Changing disturbance frequency also led to consistent differences in community composition. There were clear differences in OTU-level composition, with different disturbance treatments each having distinct fungal communities. The functional profile of fungal groups (guilds) was changed by the level of disturbance frequency. These predictable differences in community composition suggest that soil fungi can possess different niches in relation to disturbance frequency, or time since last disturbance. Fungi appear to be most abundant relative to bacteria at intermediate disturbance frequencies, on the time scale we studied here.

TRADER: a package for Tree Ring Analysis of Disturbance Events in R

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Altman, Jan; Fibich, P.; Doležal, Jiří; Aakala, T.

2014-01-01

Roč. 32, č. 2 (2014), s. 107-112 ISSN 1125-7865 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/12/1952; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR GA13-13368S; GA MŠk EE2.3.30.0048 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Disturbance reconstruction * Growth release, R Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.797, year: 2014

Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melicio, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn.

Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melicio, R. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-04-15

As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Analysis of disturbances in a hypersonic boundary layer on a cone with heating/cooling of the nose tip

Science.gov (United States)

Bountin, Dmitry; Maslov, Anatoly; Gromyko, Yury

2018-05-01

Experimental results of the influence of local heating/cooling on the development of hypersonic boundary layer disturbances are reported. Local heating/cooling is applied at the cone nose tip. The experiments are carried out at the Mach number M = 5.95, stagnation temperature T0 = 360-418 K, and stagnation pressure P0 = 3.7-45 atm. The unit Reynolds number is varied in the interval Re1 = (4.5-63) × 106 m-1. The investigations are conducted in the boundary layer on a cone with an apex half-angle of 7° and varied bluntness radius of the nose tip [R = 0.03 (sharp nose), 0.75, and 1.5 mm] for different values of the local temperature factor. The nose tip is heated by an ohmic heater. Cooling is performed by supplying liquid nitrogen into the internal cavity of the model nose. A comparative analysis of pressure pulsation spectra on the cone surface is performed. It is demonstrated that heating/cooling in the case of a sharp cone leads to flow destabilization/stabilization. The opposite effect is observed for blunted cones: heating/cooling stabilizes/destabilizes the second-mode disturbances. This effect is enhanced by increasing the nose tip bluntness. All the observed effects vanish with distance downstream from the nose tip.

Spatial extreme learning machines: An application on prediction of disease counts.

Science.gov (United States)

Prates, Marcos O

2018-01-01

Extreme learning machines have gained a lot of attention by the machine learning community because of its interesting properties and computational advantages. With the increase in collection of information nowadays, many sources of data have missing information making statistical analysis harder or unfeasible. In this paper, we present a new model, coined spatial extreme learning machine, that combine spatial modeling with extreme learning machines keeping the nice properties of both methodologies and making it very flexible and robust. As explained throughout the text, the spatial extreme learning machines have many advantages in comparison with the traditional extreme learning machines. By a simulation study and a real data analysis we present how the spatial extreme learning machine can be used to improve imputation of missing data and uncertainty prediction estimation.

Coronary arterial Disease associated with arteriosclerosis in lower extremity: Angiographic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ji Hye; Chung, Jin Wook; Lee, Seon Kyu; Han, Joon Koo; Park, Jae Hyung; Kim, Jae Seung; Han, Man Chung

1993-01-01

We performed both peripheral and coronary angiographies in 52 patients with an arteriosclerosis in lower extremities. The severity of arteriosclerotic narrowing of the coronary and peripheral arteries were compared on angiographies. An angiographic vascular score(AVS, 0-5) reflecting the number and the degree of stenosis in 12 lower extremity arteries and three major coronary arteries was assigned to each angiogram and the sun of scores in the lower extremity arteries was compared with the incidence of significant coronary artery disease (more than grade 3) and coronary score. Relation of incidence and severity of vascular stenosis and risk factors (diabetes metallitus, hypertension, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia) was also analyzed. Thirty-four of 52 patients (65%) had an angiographically significant coronary artery disease. Thirteen of these 34 patients (38%) had no clinical symptom and sign of the ischemic heart disease. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence and severity of coronary artery disease between high (more than 30) and low AVS group in lower extremity (p>0.14). All patients had at least one risk factor and 49 of 52 patients (94%) had multiple risk factors. Coronary angiography was normal in there patients with only one risk factors, and angiographically significant coronary artery disease existed in nine of 16 cases (56.3%) with two risk factors. 13 of 17 case (76.5%) with three risk factors, and 12 of 16 cases (75.0%) with all four risk factors. There were no significant correlations between individual risk factors and incidence, severity of arteriosclerosis in coronary and lower extremity arteries. In conclusion, angiographic evaluation of the coronary artery disease in patients with lower extremity arteriosclerosis is necessary because of the high chance of coronary artery disease and difficulty in the prediction of coronary artery disease with a severity of the peripheral arteriosclerosis, presence of various risk

Assessment of sleep disturbance in lung cancer patients: relationship between sleep disturbance and pain, fatigue, quality of life, and psychological distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiura, Mare; Tamura, Atsuhisa; Nagai, Hideaki; Matsushima, Eisuke

2015-06-01

We investigated the prevalence of sleep disturbance and psychological distress in lung cancer patients. We also examined the association between sleep disturbance and psychological distress, pain, fatigue, and quality of life in the same population. Fifty lung cancer patients were evaluated. Sleep disturbance was assessed using the Athens Sleep Insomnia Scale (AIS) and psychological distress using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Quality of life (QOL), pain, and fatigue were assessed employing the European Organization of Research and Treatment Quality of Life Questionnaire-Cancer 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). We observed that 56% of lung cancer patients had sleep disturbance (AIS score ≥6) and 60% had psychological distress (total HADS score ≥11). Patients with sleep disturbance had a HADS score of 14.6 ± 5.8, a fatigue score of 45.3 ± 22.0, and a pain score of 27.2 ± 26.2. In contrast, patients without sleep disturbance had a lower HADS score of 9.9 ± 8.1 (p psychological distress. Additionally, the type of sleep disturbance was related to other patient factors, including whether or not they received chemotherapy.

The Dimensionality of Body Image Disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Galgan, Richard J.; And Others

1987-01-01

Examined personality variables in 75 male and 75 female college students. Found two dimensions underlying body image disturbance variables, one loading on body image dissatisfaction and one loading on body image disturbance. Low negative correlation between two factors suggests that distortion and dissatisfaction are fairly distinct and that body…

An Industrial Model Based Disturbance Feedback Control Scheme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kawai, Fukiko; Nakazawa, Chikashi; Vinther, Kasper

2014-01-01

This paper presents a model based disturbance feedback control scheme. Industrial process systems have been traditionally controlled by using relay and PID controller. However these controllers are affected by disturbances and model errors and these effects degrade control performance. The authors...... propose a new control method that can decrease the negative impact of disturbance and model errors. The control method is motivated by industrial practice by Fuji Electric. Simulation tests are examined with a conventional PID controller and the disturbance feedback control. The simulation results...

Butterfly community assemblages in relation to human disturbance in a tropical upland forest in Ghana, and implications for conservation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Addo-Fordjour

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The present study determined butterfly diversity, species composition and abundance in different forests of varying human disturbance intensities in the Atewa Range Forest Reserve, Ghana (i.e. non-disturbed, moderately disturbed and heavily disturbed forests. Vegetation characteristics and butterflies were sampled within ten 50 m × 50 m plots in each forest type. The study revealed that butterfly Shannon diversity index was similar in the non-disturbed and moderately disturbed forests although it was significantly lower in the heavily disturbed forest. Butterfly abundance differed significantly among all the forest types. Significant relationships were detected between some vegetation characteristics, and butterfly diversity and abundance (P<0.001. Using Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS and cluster analysis, three main butterfly assemblages were identified on the basis of species composition, with each one in a particular forest type. Furthermore, butterfly species composition differed significantly among the forest types (ANOSIM; P<0.0001. The intermediate form of human disturbance in the moderately disturbed forest maintained butterfly diversity, suggesting that management efforts aimed at butterfly conservation should be geared towards protecting forests from excessive human disturbance; selective logging is recommended.

Age structure and disturbance legacy of North American forests

Science.gov (United States)

Y. Pan; J.M. Chen; R. Birdsey; K. McCullough; L. He; F. Deng

2011-01-01

Most forests of the world are recovering from a past disturbance. It is well known that forest disturbances profoundly affect carbon stocks and fluxes in forest ecosystems, yet it has been a great challenge to assess disturbance impacts in estimates of forest carbon budgets. Net sequestration or loss of CO2 by forests after disturbance follows a...

Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-11-01

Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2005-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

Language disturbances from mesencephalo-thalamic infarcts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazzarino, L.G.; Nicolai, A.; Valassi, F.; Biasizzo, E.

1991-01-01

The authors report the cases of two patients with CT-documented paramedian mesencephalo-thalamic infarcts, showing language disturbances. The first patient showed a non fluent, transcortical motor-like aphasia, the other had a fluent but severely paraphasic language disorder. The CT study disclosed that it was the dorso-median thalamic nucleus that was mostly involved in both cases. These findings agree with a few previous pathological studies suggesting that the paramedian thalamic nuclei, particlularly the dorso-median nucleus may play some role in language disturbances. However the anatomical basis for thalamic aphasia remains speculative, taking into account the importantce of cortical connections in the origin of subcortical neuropsychological disturbances. (orig.)

Analysis of extreme hydrometric values in the nuclear power plants siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez, H.R.; Maggio, G.E.; Tripoli, C.R.

1983-01-01

The atucha nuclear power plants are located on the right shore of the Parana de las Palmas river in the entire transition between a fluvial regime and other of tides. Since the disponibility of cooling water is one of the factors to take into account when choosing the nuclear power plant site, it is essential to perform a probabilistic study of extreme hydrometric values. Deterministic and historical analysis should be done to complete the studies already mentioned, in order to establish the values of probable maximum floods. From the application of these methods, it is concluded that the site of the Atucha nuclear power plants constitutes a hydrometric singularity, so that, an optimization has been obtained from that point of view. (Author) [es

Angiography of the upper extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janevski, B.K.

1982-01-01

This thesis provides a description of the technical and medical aspects of arteriography of the upper extremity and an extensive analysis of the angiographic anatomy and pathology of 750 selective studies performed in more than 500 patients. A short historical review is provided of angiography as a whole and of arteriography of the hand in particular. The method of percutaneous transfemoral catheterization of the arteries of the upper extremity and particularly the arteries of the hand is considered, discussing the problems the angiographer encounters frequently, describing the angiographic complications which may occur and emphasizing the measures to keep them to a minimum. The use of vasodilators in hand angiography is discussed. A short description of the embryological patterns persisting in the arteries of the arm is included in order to understand the congenital variations of the arteries of the upper extremity. The angiographic patterns and clinical aspects of the most common pathological processes involving the arteries of the upper extremities are presented. Special attention is paid to the correlation between angiography and pathology. (Auth.)

A climatological morphology of ionospheric disturbances at high and polar latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitris N. Fotiadis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available After a historical introduction on the first well-documented observations of ionospheric phenomena and a review of the current, state-of-the art polar ionospheric studies, a climatological morphology of the irregular F-region plasma structures at high and polar latitudes is being presented, following a feature-aided pattern recognition method. Using the available in three solar cycles hourly foF2 data from 18 ionosonde stations, an ionospheric definition of disturbed conditions, independent of any causative mechanism, is being applied and positive/negative disturbances of duration smaller than 24 hours are sorted out. No latitudinal/longitudinal bins or seasons are defined and disturbances in each month and station are handled separately while four local time intervals of storm commencement are considered, according to solar zenith angle. A median profile per disturbance is produced only when a minimum occurrence probability is satisfied. Non-systematic features are excluded from this analysis by careful selection of the time window under morphological investigation. First, the median profiles of disturbance patterns are fitted to standard distributions and then, if they fail, they are grouped according to their major characteristic features and are described by a dynamic variation envelope along with their distribution in space and time. The present model, while being a non-conditional stand-alone model of ionospheric storms at high and polar latitudes offered to radio users, may complement existing empirical models. Finally, the present model may ultimately reveal cause-effect relationships with geomagnetic field or interplanetary parameters after further correlation studies undertaken in the future.

Development of a Scale To Assess Emotional Disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Michael H.; Cullinan, Douglas; Ryser, Gail; Pearson, Nils

2002-01-01

This study reports on the standardization of the Scale for Assessing Emotional Disturbance. Data collected on 2,266 typical students (ages 5- 18) and 1,371 students with emotional disturbances led to the identification of six behavioral problem factors that correspond to the federal definition of emotional disturbance and were highly internally…

Trajectory Control of Scale-Free Dynamical Networks with Exogenous Disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Hongyong; Zhang Shun; Zong Guangdeng

2011-01-01

In this paper, the trajectory control of multi-agent dynamical systems with exogenous disturbances is studied. Suppose multiple agents composing of a scale-free network topology, the performance of rejecting disturbances for the low degree node and high degree node is analyzed. Firstly, the consensus of multi-agent systems without disturbances is studied by designing a pinning control strategy on a part of agents, where this pinning control can bring multiple agents' states to an expected consensus track. Then, the influence of the disturbances is considered by developing disturbance observers, and disturbance observers based control (DOBC) are developed for disturbances generated by an exogenous system to estimate the disturbances. Asymptotical consensus of the multi-agent systems with disturbances under the composite controller can be achieved for scale-free network topology. Finally, by analyzing examples of multi-agent systems with scale-free network topology and exogenous disturbances, the verities of the results are proved. Under the DOBC with the designed parameters, the trajectory convergence of multi-agent systems is researched by pinning two class of the nodes. We have found that it has more stronger robustness to exogenous disturbances for the high degree node pinned than that of the low degree node pinned. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

Extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kalpakkam during the period 1968-1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balagurunathan, M.R.; Chandresekharan, E.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

2001-05-01

In the design phase of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand climatological stresses during its life time. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters at Kalpakkam for the period 1968-99, which provide an insight into such situations is described. The extreme value analysis reveals that all the variables obey Fisher-Tippet Type-I extreme value distribution function. Parameter values of extreme value analysis functions are presented for the variables studied and the 50- and 100- year return period extreme values are arrived at. Frequency distribution of rainfall parameters is investigated. Time series of annual rainfall data suggests a cycle of 2-3 years period. (author)

Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

SIZE AND SHAPE FACTOR EXTREMES OF SPHEROIDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Hlubinka

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In the paper we consider random prolate (oblate spheroids and their random profiles. The limiting distribution of the extremal characteristics of the spheroids is related to the limiting distribution of the corresponding extremal characteristics of the profiles. The difference between the analysis of the prolate and oblate spheroids is discussed. We propose the possible application of the theoretical results.

Thermally-Induced Structural Disturbances of Rigid Panel Solar Arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, John D.; Thornton, Earl A.

1997-01-01

The performance of a significant number of spacecraft has been impacted negatively by attitude disturbances resulting from thermally-induced motions of flexible structures. Recent examples of spacecraft affected by these disturbances include the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Thermally-induced structural disturbances occur as the result of rapid changes in thermal loading typically initiated as a satellite exits or enters the Earth's shadow. Temperature differences in flexible appendages give rise to structural deformations, which in turn result in disturbance torques reacting back on the spacecraft. Structures which have proven susceptible to these disturbances include deployable booms and solar arrays. This paper investigates disturbances resulting from thermally-induced deformations of rigid panel solar arrays. An analytical model for the thermal-structural response of the solar array and the corresponding disturbance torque are presented. The effect of these disturbances on the attitude dynamics of a simple spacecraft is then investigated using a coupled system of governing equations which includes the effects of thermally-induced deformations. Numerical results demonstrate the effect of varying solar array geometry on the dynamic response of the system.

Recurrence and frequency of disturbance have cumulative effect on methanotrophic activity, abundance, and community structure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian eHo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Alternate prolonged drought and heavy rainfall is predicted to intensify with global warming. Desiccation-rewetting events alter the soil quality and nutrient concentrations which drive microbial-mediated processes, including methane oxidation, a key biogeochemical process catalyzed by methanotrophic bacteria. Although aerobic methanotrophs showed remarkable resilience to a suite of physical disturbances induced as a single event, their resilience to recurring disturbances is less known. Here, using a rice field soil in a microcosm study, we determined whether recurrence and frequency of desiccation-rewetting impose an accumulating effect on the methanotrophic activity. The response of key aerobic methanotroph subgroups (type Ia, Ib, and II were monitored using qPCR assays, and was supported by a t-RFLP analysis. The methanotrophic activity was resilient to recurring desiccation-rewetting, but increasing the frequency of the disturbance by two-fold significantly decreased methane uptake rate. Both the qPCR and t-RFLP analyses were congruent, showing the dominance of type Ia/Ib methanotrophs prior to disturbance, and after disturbance, the recovering community was predominantly comprised of type Ia (Methylobacter methanotrophs. Both type Ib and type II (Methylosinus/Methylocystis methanotrophs were adversely affected by the disturbance, but type II methanotrophs showed recovery over time, indicating relatively higher resilience to the disturbance. This revealed distinct, yet unrecognized traits among the methanotroph community members. Our results show that recurring desiccation-rewetting before a recovery in community abundance had an accumulated effect, compromising methanotrophic activity. While methanotrophs may recover well following sporadic disturbances, their resilience may reach a ‘tipping point’ where activity no longer recovered if disturbance persists and increase in frequency.

Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He

2017-08-01

For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.

Analysis and measurement of property disturbances in a combustion magnetohydrodynamic plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simons, T.D.; Mitchner, M.; Eustis, R.H.

1984-01-01

Measurements of propagating pressure and temperature (entropy) waves in a combustion magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generator are presented along with a general model which describes how to produce controlled rapid property disturbances in a combustion MHD plasma. The model identifies the principal mechanisms of wave formation and predicts the qualitative and quantitative wave shapes as a function of average plasma and electrical properties but does not describe wave amplification. The model exhibits quantitatively the coupling between the entropy and acoustic waves and the electric current and magnetic field under conditions applicable to MHD power generation

Soil disturbance as a grassland restoration measure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schnoor, Tim; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Olsson, Pål Axel

2015-01-01

Soil disturbance is recognized as an important driver of biodiversity in dry grasslands, and can therefore be implemented as a restoration measure. However, because community re-assembly following disturbance includes stochastic processes, a focus only on species richness or establishment success...... to experimental disturbance treatments (ploughing or rotavation), and the vegetation was surveyed during four subsequent years of succession. Treated plots were compared with control plots representing untreated grassland, as well as nearby plots characterized by plant communities representing the restoration...

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seong-Gil

2018-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. Material/Methods This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. Results In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (pregression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). Conclusions Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement. PMID:29760375

Different Recovery Processes of Soil Ammonia Oxidizers from Flooding Disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Fei; Ma, Mao-Hua; Op den Camp, Huub J M; Chatzinotas, Antonis; Li, Lei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Wu, Sheng-Jun; Wang, Yu

2018-04-11

Understanding how microorganisms respond to environmental disturbance is one of the key focuses in microbial ecology. Ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) are responsible for ammonia oxidation which is a crucial step in the nitrogen cycle. Although the physiology, distribution, and activity of AOA and AOB in soil have been extensively investigated, their recovery from a natural disturbance remains largely unknown. To assess the recovery capacities, including resistance and resilience, of AOA and AOB, soil samples were taken from a reservoir riparian zone which experienced periodically water flooding. The samples were classified into three groups (flooding, recovery, and control) for a high-throughput sequencing and quantitative PCR analysis. We used a relative quantitative index of both the resistance (RS) and resilience (RL) to assess the variation of gene abundance, alpha-diversity, and community composition. The AOA generally demonstrated a better recovery capability after the flooding disturbance compared to AOB. In particular, AOA were more resilient after the flooding disturbance. Taxa within the AOA and AOB showed different RS and RL values, with the most abundant taxa showing in general the highest RS indices. Soil NH 4 + and Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ were the main variables controlling the key taxa of AOA and AOB and probably influenced the resistance and resilience properties of AOA and AOB communities. The distinct mechanisms of AOA and AOB in maintaining community stability against the flooding disturbance might be linked to the different life-history strategies: the AOA community was more likely to represent r-strategists in contrast to the AOB community following a K-life strategy. Our results indicated that the AOA may play a vital role in ammonia oxidation in a fluctuating habitat and contribute to the stability of riparian ecosystem.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Science.gov (United States)

Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the

Legacy effects of no-analogue disturbances alter plant community diversity and composition in semi-arid sagebrush steppe

Science.gov (United States)

Ripplinger, Julie; Franklin, Janet; Edwards, Thomas C.

2015-01-01

Questions(i) What role does the type of managed disturbance play in structuring sagebrush steppe plant communities? (ii) How does the composition of post-disturbance plant communities change with time since disturbance? (iii) Does plant community diversity change over time following managed disturbance?LocationField study within the sagebrush steppe ecosystem. Rich County, Utah, USA.MethodsWe developed a chronosequence spanning up to 50 yrs post-treatment to study sagebrush steppe vegetation dynamics. Direct ordination was used to examine plant community composition by managed disturbance type and time since disturbance, and factorial analysis of covariance was used to examine diversity dynamics following disturbance. Indicator species values were calculated in order to identify characteristic species for each disturbance type.ResultsPlant communities experienced a shift toward distinct community composition for each of the three managed disturbance types, and gave no indication of returning to untreated community composition or diversity. Small post-disturbance increases in the number of non-native grass species were observed in the treatments relative to reference, with native forb species making the largest contribution to altered composition. On fire- and chemically-treated sites the proportional native forb species richness increased over time since disturbance, while the proportional contribution of non-native forbs to total species richness decreased. For all three treatment types, native grasses contributed less on average to total richness than on reference sites, while non-native grasses made up a higher proportion of total richness.ConclusionsCommon shrubland management techniques have legacy effects on the composition and diversity of sagebrush steppe plant communities, and no-analogue disturbances, such as chemical or mechanical treatments, have more pronounced legacy effects than treatments similar to natural disturbance regimes (fire). This study

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yagang Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

Influence of stocking, site quality, stand age, low-severity canopy disturbance, and forest composition on sub-boreal aspen mixedwood carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Reinikainen, Michael; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn

2014-01-01

Low-severity canopy disturbance presumably influences forest carbon dynamics during the course of stand development, yet the topic has received relatively little attention. This is surprising because of the frequent occurrence of such events and the potential for both the severity and frequency of disturbances to increase as a result of climate change. We investigated the impacts of low-severity canopy disturbance and average insect defoliation on forest carbon stocks and rates of carbon sequestration in mature aspen mixedwood forests of varying stand age (ranging from 61 to 85 years), overstory composition, stocking level, and site quality. Stocking level and site quality positively affected the average annual aboveground tree carbon increment (CAAI), while stocking level, site quality, and stand age positively affected tree carbon stocks (CTREE) and total ecosystem carbon stocks (CTOTAL). Cumulative canopy disturbance (DIST) was reconstructed using dendroecological methods over a 29-year period. DIST was negatively and significantly related to soil carbon (CSOIL), and it was negatively, albeit marginally, related to CTOTAL. Minima in the annual aboveground carbon increment of trees (CAI) occurred at sites during defoliation of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) by forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hubner), and minima were more extreme at sites dominated by trembling aspen than sites mixed with conifers. At sites defoliated by forest tent caterpillar in the early 2000s, increased sequestration by the softwood component (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) compensated for overall decreases in CAI by 17% on average. These results underscore the importance of accounting for low-severity canopy disturbance events when developing regional forest carbon models and argue for the restoration and maintenance of historically important conifer species within aspen mixedwoods to enhance stand-level resilience to disturbance agents and maintain

Coping Style and Quality of Life in Elderly Patients with Vision Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Oles

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. This study aims at evaluating coping style and quality of life in patients with glaucoma and cataract. Methods. The participants were patients (N=237, 130F; mean age: M = 67,8; SD = 9,5 with low vision caused by cataract (N=188 and glaucoma (N=49 who answered the Quality of Life Questionnaire (QOLQ by Schalock and Keith. The participants were divided by means of cluster analysis (k-means according to coping styles measured by CISS (Endler and Parker into three groups: (1 high mobilization for coping, (2 task-oriented coping, and (3 low mobilization for coping. Results. In all the group, a general quality of life was moderately lowered; however, in task-oriented group it was relatively high. Moreover, task-oriented group had significantly lower level of anxiety (STAI, hopelessness (HS, and loneliness (UCLA LS-R and higher level of self-esteem (SES in comparison to the patients from high mobilization and low mobilization for coping. Conclusions. In an old age, adaptive coping with vision disturbances does not necessarily mean flexibility in combining all coping styles, but rather task-oriented coping and an ability to use social support. Extreme mobilization for coping seems not adaptive similarly like low mobilization for coping because it violates balance between environmental requirements and personal resources.

Trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry

Science.gov (United States)

Seveso, Luigi; Paris, Matteo G. A.

2018-03-01

We address the trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry from the perspective of quantum estimation theory. Given a quantum measurement, we quantify information via the Fisher information of the measurement and disturbance via four different figures of merit, which capture different aspects (statistical, thermodynamical, geometrical) of the trade-off. For each disturbance measure, the efficient measurements, i.e., the measurements that introduce a disturbance not greater than any other measurement extracting the same amount of information, are determined explicitly. The family of efficient measurements varies with the choice of the disturbance measure. On the other hand, commutativity between the elements of the probability operator-valued measure (POVM) and the equilibrium state of the thermometer is a necessary condition for efficiency with respect to any figure of disturbance.

Summary of Research Issues in Behavior and Performance in Isolated and Confined Extreme (ICE) Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Palinkas, Lawrence A.

2000-01-01

The papers presented in this section describe changes in behavior and performance in various isolated and confined extreme (ICE) environments, including Antarctic expeditions and research stations, space simulators and isolation chambers, and submarines. Each of these environments possesses characteristics that are in some way analogous to those found on long-duration space missions. Despite differences in length of mission, characteristics of mission personnel or crew, and characteristics in the physical environment, the various ICE environments described in this collection of papers appear to produce similar changes in behavior and performance. These changes include increased disturbances of mood, increased rates of psychiatric disorder, increased interpersonal tension, and a disruption of circadian rhythms. However, these environments do not inherently produce decrements in performance. Palinkas and colleagues suggest that prolonged exposure to the isolation and confinement in the Antarctic can actually have positive or "salutogenic" effects as well, evidenced by a decrease in mood disturbances and increase in performance measures.

Association among depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance, and suicidal ideation in Taiwanese adolescent.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ming-Shun; Chiu, Hsien-Jane; Sun, Wen-Jung; Lin, Chieh-Nan; Kuo, Chien-Cheng; Huang, Wei-Che; Chen, Ying-Sheue; Cheng, Hui-Ping; Chou, Pesus

2014-09-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the association among depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance, and suicidal ideation in Taiwanese adolescent. We recruited 607 students (grades 5-9) to fill out the investigation of basic data and sleep disturbance. Psychiatrists then used the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview-Kid to interview these students to assess their suicidal ideation and psychiatric diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression with forward conditionals was used to find the risk factors for multivariate analysis. Female, age, depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, and poor sleep all contributed to adolescent suicidal ideation in univariate analysis. However, poor sleep became non-significant under the control of depressive disorder and adjustment disorder. We found that both depressive disorder and adjustment disorder play important roles in sleep and adolescent suicidal ideation. After controlling both depressive disorder and adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance was no longer a risk of adolescent suicidal ideation. We also confirm the indirect influence of sleep on suicidal ideation in adolescent. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Handling process disturbances in petroleum production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sten, T; Bodsberg, L; Ingstad, O; Ulleberg, T

1988-06-01

Factors of importance in successful handling of major disturbances and crisis situations in petroleum production are discussed. Case studies based on interviews, questionnaires and systematic observations have been undertaken to identify critical factors in human computer design, in operator competence and attitudes and in work organization. It is shown that certain features of the humancomputer interaction become critical when serious disturbances are encountered. Likewise focusing on requirements during disturbances in particular has highlighted some new aspects of operator competence and of the work organization. The results are considered to be useful input to safety management in petroleum process plants, in formation of design specifications and in identifying need for further research regarding safety in offshore production.

Disturbance phenomena in VLF standard radio wave observation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muraoka, Yoshikazu

1977-01-01

Storm aftereffect, i.e. the phase disturbance after initiation of a magnetic storm has been revealed in the observation of VLF standard radio waves. In VLF long distance propagation at middle latitudes (L - 3), the phase disturbance for several days after the initiation of a magnetic storm is due to electron fall from the radiation belt. This has been confirmed by the comparison with electron flux detected by an artificial satellite. The correlations between VLF phase disturbance and magnetism activity or ionosphere absorption are described. The relation between winter anomaly and phase disturbance is also discussed. (Mori, K.)

Treatment of sleep disturbances in trauma-affected refugees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandahl, Hinuga; Jennum, Poul; Baandrup, Lone

2017-01-01

Background: Sleep disturbances are often referred to as a hallmark and as core symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Untreated sleep disturbances can contribute to the maintenance and exacerbation of PTSD symptoms, which may diminish treatment response and constitute a risk factor...... for poor treatment outcome. Controlled trials on treatment of sleep disturbances in refugees suffering from PTSD are scarce. The present study aims to examine sleep-enhancing treatment in refugees with PTSD. We aim to assess if add-on treatment with mianserin and/or Imagery Rehearsal Therapy (IRT......) to treatment as usual (TAU) for PTSD improves sleep disturbances. We will study the relation between sleep disturbances, PTSD symptoms, psychosocial functioning and quality of life. Methods: The study is a randomised controlled superiority trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design. The study will include 230 trauma...

Extreme value theory in emerging markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anđelić Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the performance of extreme value theory (EVT with the daily stock index returns of four different emerging markets. The research covers the sample representing the Serbian (BELEXline, Croatian (CROBEX, Slovenian (SBI20, and Hungarian (BUX stock indexes using the data from January 2006 - September 2009. In the paper a performance test was carried out for the success of application of the extreme value theory in estimating and forecasting of the tails of daily return distribution of the analyzed stock indexes. Therefore the main goal is to determine whether EVT adequately estimates and forecasts the tails (2.5% and 5% at the tail of daily stock index return distribution in the emerging markets of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The applied methodology during the research includes analysis, synthesis and statistical/mathematical methods. Research results according to estimated Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD parameters indicate the necessity of applying market risk estimation methods, i.e. extreme value theory (EVT in the framework of a broader analysis of investment processes in emerging markets.

Clinical trial: esomeprazole for moderate-to-severe nighttime heartburn and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease-related sleep disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, D; Crawley, J A; Hwang, C; Brown, K

2010-07-01

Nighttime heartburn, common among patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD), is associated with substantial clinical effects. GERD-related sleep disturbances are underappreciated and undertreated. To evaluate the efficacy of esomeprazole on GERD-related nighttime heartburn and associated sleep disturbances. In this multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, patients with moderate-to-severe nighttime heartburn and GERD-related sleep disturbances (endoscopies not required) received esomeprazole 20 mg or placebo each morning for 4 weeks. Heartburn symptoms and GERD-related sleep disturbances were evaluated using the validated Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and validated Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire. The analysis included 262 patients (esomeprazole, n = 137; placebo, n = 125). Significantly more patients receiving esomeprazole achieved nighttime heartburn relief (primary end point) than those receiving placebo (34.3% vs. 10.4%; P heartburn and GERD-related sleep disturbances, improving heartburn symptoms, sleep quality, work productivity and functionality.

Hybrid Cascading Outage Analysis of Extreme Events with Optimized Corrective Actions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Holzer, Jesse T.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Huang, Qiuhua; Ke, Xinda

2017-10-19

Power system are vulnerable to extreme contingencies (like an outage of a major generating substation) that can cause significant generation and load loss and can lead to further cascading outages of other transmission facilities and generators in the system. Some cascading outages are seen within minutes following a major contingency, which may not be captured exclusively using the dynamic simulation of the power system. The utilities plan for contingencies either based on dynamic or steady state analysis separately which may not accurately capture the impact of one process on the other. We address this gap in cascading outage analysis by developing Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) that can analyze hybrid dynamic and steady state behavior of the power system, including protection system models in dynamic simulations, and simulating corrective actions in post-transient steady state conditions. One of the important implemented steady state processes is to mimic operator corrective actions to mitigate aggravated states caused by dynamic cascading. This paper presents an Optimal Power Flow (OPF) based formulation for selecting corrective actions that utility operators can take during major contingency and thus automate the hybrid dynamic-steady state cascading outage process. The improved DCAT framework with OPF based corrective actions is demonstrated on IEEE 300 bus test system.

Speckle perception and disturbance limit in laser based projectors

Science.gov (United States)

Verschaffelt, Guy; Roelandt, Stijn; Meuret, Youri; Van den Broeck, Wendy; Kilpi, Katriina; Lievens, Bram; Jacobs, An; Janssens, Peter; Thienpont, Hugo

2016-04-01

We investigate the level of speckle that can be tolerated in a laser cinema projector. For this purpose, we equipped a movie theatre room with a prototype laser projector. A group of 186 participants was gathered to evaluate the speckle perception of several, short movie trailers in a subjective `Quality of Experience' experiment. This study is important as the introduction of lasers in projection systems has been hampered by the presence of speckle in projected images. We identify a speckle disturbance threshold by statistically analyzing the observers' responses for different values of the amount of speckle, which was monitored using a well-defined speckle measurement method. The analysis shows that the speckle perception of a human observer is not only dependent on the objectively measured amount of speckle, but it is also strongly influenced by the image content. As is also discussed in [Verschaffelt et al., Scientific Reports 5, art. nr. 14105, 2015] we find that, for moving images, the speckle becomes disturbing if the speckle contrast becomes larger than 6.9% for the red, 6.0% for the green, and 4.8% for the blue primary colors of the projector, whereas for still images the speckle detection threshold is about 3%. As we could not independently tune the speckle contrast of each of the primary colors, this speckle disturbance limit seems to be determined by the 6.9% speckle contrast of the red color as this primary color contains the largest amount of speckle. The speckle disturbance limit for movies thus turns out to be substantially larger than that for still images, and hence is easier to attain.

Sliding Mode Observer-Based Current Sensor Fault Reconstruction and Unknown Load Disturbance Estimation for PMSM Driven System.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Kaihui; Li, Peng; Zhang, Changfan; Li, Xiangfei; He, Jing; Lin, Yuliang

2017-12-06

This paper proposes a new scheme of reconstructing current sensor faults and estimating unknown load disturbance for a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM)-driven system. First, the original PMSM system is transformed into two subsystems; the first subsystem has unknown system load disturbances, which are unrelated to sensor faults, and the second subsystem has sensor faults, but is free from unknown load disturbances. Introducing a new state variable, the augmented subsystem that has sensor faults can be transformed into having actuator faults. Second, two sliding mode observers (SMOs) are designed: the unknown load disturbance is estimated by the first SMO in the subsystem, which has unknown load disturbance, and the sensor faults can be reconstructed using the second SMO in the augmented subsystem, which has sensor faults. The gains of the proposed SMOs and their stability analysis are developed via the solution of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme was verified by simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can reconstruct current sensor faults and estimate unknown load disturbance for the PMSM-driven system.

UNDERSTANDING THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF FIRE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN MONGOLIA USING MODIS PRODUCT

OpenAIRE

Wurihan; Zhang, H.; Zhang, Z.; Guo, X.; Zhao, J.; Duwala; Shan, Y.; Hongying

2018-01-01

Fire disturbance plays an important role in maintaining ecological balance, biodiversity and self-renewal. In this paper, the spatio-temporal pattern of fire disturbances in eastern Mongolia are studied by using the ArcGIS spatial analysis method, using the MCD45A1 data of MODIS fire products with long time series. It provides scientific basis and reference for the regional ecological environment security construction and international ecological security. Research indicates: (1) The fire dis...

Sleep disturbance associated factors in menopausal women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Haghani

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Sleep is necessary in life and approximately 1/3 of human life is devoted to sleep. One of the most common problems in menopausal women is sleep disturbance. The aim of this study was to determine frequency of sleep disorders and its related factors in 50 – 60 years old women Methods: A cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted on 200 eligible women who referred to selected health centers of Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS. Demographic form, ten-point slide to review sexual satisfaction and Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index Questioner (PSQI were used for data collection. Data was analyzed using ANOVA, t-test, and Pearson correlation tests.Results: The mean age of women was 53.6±3.6 year, menopause age 47.8±4, number of children 4.76±2 and partner age was 57.99±6.6. 34.5% of women were satisfied from their sexual relationship and their score was 8-10. Rate of sleep disturbances in this group was about 70%. The results showed that between four variables: economical status, occupation, partner occupation and educational status were significantly associated with sleep disturbance (P=0.002. There was not significant difference between other demographic information and sleep disturbance.Conclusion: The results show high prevalence of sleep disturbance symptoms among menopausal women. According to the relationship between some personal characters and sleep disturbance, health care providers need to consider these variables.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-12-01

long-term effects on ecosystems. Our synthetic simulations show that while tropical ecosystems uptake may reach pre-disturbance level after a decade, biomass stocks would most likely need more than a century to recover from a single extreme disturbance event.

Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction

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Wei Li

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The investigation of various aspects of the wave climate at a wave energy test site is essential for the development of reliable and efficient wave energy conversion technology. This paper presents studies of the wave climate based on nine years of wave observations from the 2005–2013 period measured with a wave measurement buoy at the Lysekil wave energy test site located off the west coast of Sweden. A detailed analysis of the wave statistics is investigated to reveal the characteristics of the wave climate at this specific test site. The long-term extreme waves are estimated from applying the Peak over Threshold (POT method on the measured wave data. The significant wave height and the maximum wave height at the test site for different return periods are also compared. In this study, a new approach using a mixed-distribution model is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the significant wave height and it shows an impressive goodness of fit to wave data from the test site. The mixed-distribution model is also applied to measured wave data from four other sites and it provides an illustration of the general applicability of the proposed model. The methodologies used in this paper can be applied to general wave climate analysis of wave energy test sites to estimate extreme waves for the survivability assessment of wave energy converters and characterize the long wave climate to forecast the wave energy resource of the test sites and the energy production of the wave energy converters.

Extreme wind conditions for a Danish offshore site

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt S.

2000-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of extreme wind speed gust values measured at a shallow water offshore site and at a coastal onshore site in Denmark. An estimate of 50-year extreme values has been evaluated using a new statistical method. In addition a mean gust shape is determined, based on a la...

Composite Intelligent Learning Control of Strict-Feedback Systems With Disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Bin; Sun, Fuchun

2018-02-01

This paper addresses the dynamic surface control of uncertain nonlinear systems on the basis of composite intelligent learning and disturbance observer in presence of unknown system nonlinearity and time-varying disturbance. The serial-parallel estimation model with intelligent approximation and disturbance estimation is built to obtain the prediction error and in this way the composite law for weights updating is constructed. The nonlinear disturbance observer is developed using intelligent approximation information while the disturbance estimation is guaranteed to converge to a bounded compact set. The highlight is that different from previous work directly toward asymptotic stability, the transparency of the intelligent approximation and disturbance estimation is included in the control scheme. The uniformly ultimate boundedness stability is analyzed via Lyapunov method. Through simulation verification, the composite intelligent learning with disturbance observer can efficiently estimate the effect caused by system nonlinearity and disturbance while the proposed approach obtains better performance with higher accuracy.

Postoperative circadian disturbances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gögenur, Ismail

2010-01-01

) in urine the first night after both minor and major surgery. This delay after major surgery was correlated to the duration of surgery. The amplitude in the melatonin rhythm was unchanged the first night but increased in the second night after major surgery. The amplitude in AMT6s was reduced the first...... night after minimally invasive surgery. The core body temperature rhythm was disturbed after both major and minor surgery. There was a change in the sleep wake cycle with a significantly increased duration of REM-sleep in the day and evening time after major surgery compared with preoperatively....... There was also a shift in the autonomic nervous balance after major surgery with a significantly increased number of myocardial ischaemic episodes during the nighttime period. The circadian activity rhythm was also disturbed after both minor and major surgery. The daytime AMT6s excretion in urine after major...

MAPPING DISTURBANCE DYNAMICS IN WET SCLEROPHYLL FORESTS USING TIME SERIES LANDSAT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Haywood

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, we characterised the temporal-spectral patterns associated with identifying acute-severity disturbances and low-severity disturbances between 1985 and 2011 with the objective to test whether different disturbance agents within these categories can be identified with annual Landsat time series data. We analysed a representative State forest within the Central Highlands which has been exposed to a range of disturbances over the last 30 years, including timber harvesting (clearfell, selective and thinning and fire (wildfire and prescribed burning. We fitted spectral time series models to annual normal burn ratio (NBR and Tasseled Cap Indices (TCI, from which we extracted a range of disturbance and recovery metrics. With these metrics, three hierarchical random forest models were trained to 1 distinguish acute-severity disturbances from low-severity disturbances; 2a attribute the disturbance agents most likely within the acute-severity class; 2b and attribute the disturbance agents most likely within the low-severity class. Disturbance types (acute severity and low-severity were successfully mapped with an overall accuracy of 72.9 %, and the individual disturbance types were successfully attributed with overall accuracies ranging from 53.2 % to 64.3 %. Low-severity disturbance agents were successfully mapped with an overall accuracy of 80.2 %, and individual agents were successfully attributed with overall accuracies ranging from 25.5 % to 95.1. Acute-severity disturbance agents were successfully mapped with an overall accuracy of 95.4 %, and individual agents were successfully attributed with overall accuracies ranging from 94.2 % to 95.2 %. Spectral metrics describing the disturbance magnitude were more important for distinguishing the disturbance agents than the post-disturbance response slope. Spectral changes associated with planned burning disturbances had generally lower magnitudes than selective harvesting

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Defining Extreme Events: A Cross-Disciplinary Review

Science.gov (United States)

McPhillips, Lauren E.; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail V.; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi, Emma J.; Shafiei Shiva, Javad

2018-03-01

Extreme events are of interest worldwide given their potential for substantial impacts on social, ecological, and technical systems. Many climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change, and there is increased potential for impacts due to the location of urbanization and the expansion of urban centers and infrastructures. Many disciplines are engaged in research and management of these events. However, a lack of coherence exists in what constitutes and defines an extreme event across these fields, which impedes our ability to holistically understand and manage these events. Here, we review 10 years of academic literature and use text analysis to elucidate how six major disciplines—climatology, earth sciences, ecology, engineering, hydrology, and social sciences—define and communicate extreme events. Our results highlight critical disciplinary differences in the language used to communicate extreme events. Additionally, we found a wide range in definitions and thresholds, with more than half of examined papers not providing an explicit definition, and disagreement over whether impacts are included in the definition. We urge distinction between extreme events and their impacts, so that we can better assess when responses to extreme events have actually enhanced resilience. Additionally, we suggest that all researchers and managers of extreme events be more explicit in their definition of such events as well as be more cognizant of how they are communicating extreme events. We believe clearer and more consistent definitions and communication can support transdisciplinary understanding and management of extreme events.

Extreme events in the Mediterranean area: A mixed deterministic-statistical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Speranza, A.; Tartaglione, N.

2006-01-01

Statistical inference suffers for severe limitations when applied to extreme meteo-climatic events. A fundamental theorem proposes a constructive theory for a universal distribution law (the Generalized Extreme Value distribution) of extremes. Use of this theorem and of its derivations is nowadays quite common. However, when applying it, the selected events should be real extremes. In practical applications a major source of errors is the fact that there is no strict criterion for selecting extremes and, in order to fatten the statistical sample very mild selection criteria are often used. The theorem in question applies to stationary processes. When a trend is introduced, inference becomes even more problematic. Experience shows that any available a priori knowledge concerning the system can play a fundamental role in the analysis, in particular if it lowers the dimensionality of the parameter space to be explored. The inference procedures serve, then, the purpose of testing the reliability of inductive hypothesis, rather than proving them. Within the above general context, analysis of the hypothesis that the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean area may be changing is proposed. The analysis is based on a combined deterministic-statistical approach: dynamical analysis of intense perturbations is combined with statistical techniques in order to try to formulate the problem in such a way that meaningful conclusion may be achieved

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgueño, A.; Lana, X.; Serra, C.; Martínez, M.D.

2014-01-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burgueño, A. [Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Lana, X., E-mail: francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Serra, C. [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Martínez, M.D. [Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)

2014-02-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

The role of recurrent disturbances for ecosystem multifunctionality

OpenAIRE

Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Joanna; Hietanen, Susanna; Josefson, Alf; Lukkari, Kaarina; Norkko, Alf

2013-01-01

Ecosystem functioning is threatened by an increasing number of anthropogenic stressors, creating a legacy of disturbance that undermines ecosystem resilience. However, few empirical studies have assessed to what extent an ecosystem can tolerate repeated disturbances and sustain its multiple functions. By inducing increasingly recurring hypoxic disturbances to a sedimentary ecosystem, we show that the majority of individual ecosystem functions experience gradual degradation patterns in respons...

Secondary plant succession on disturbed sites at Yucca Mountain, Nevada