WorldWideScience

Sample records for extratropical cyclone system

  1. Martian extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, G. E.; James, P. B.

    1979-01-01

    Physical properties of summer-season baroclinic waves on Mars are discussed on the basis of vidicon images and infrared thermal mapping generated by Viking Orbiter 1. The two northern-hemisphere storm systems examined here appear to be similar to terrestrial mid-latitude cyclonic storms. The Martian storm clouds are probably composed of water ice, rather than dust or CO2 ice particles.

  2. Extratropical Cyclone in the Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    These images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) portray an occluded extratropical cyclone situated in the Southern Ocean, about 650 kilometers south of the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. The left-hand image, a true-color view from MISR's nadir (vertical-viewing) camera, shows clouds just south of the Yorke Peninsula and the Murray-Darling river basin in Australia. Retrieved cloud-tracked wind velocities are indicated by the superimposed arrows. The image on the right displays cloud-top heights. Areas where cloud heights could not be retrieved are shown in black. Both the wind vectors and the cloud heights were derived using data from multiple MISR cameras within automated computer processing algorithms. The stereoscopic algorithms used to generate these results are still being refined, and future versions of these products may show modest changes. Extratropical cyclones are the dominant weather system at midlatitudes, and the term is used generically for regional low-pressure systems in the mid- to high-latitudes. In the southern hemisphere, cyclonic rotation is clockwise. These storms obtain their energy from temperature differences between air masses on either side of warm and cold fronts, and their characteristic pattern is of warm and cold fronts radiating out from a migrating low pressure center which forms, deepens, and dissipates as the fronts fold and collapse on each other. The center of this cyclone has started to decay, with the band of cloud to the south most likely representing the main front that was originally connected with the cyclonic circulation. These views were acquired on October 11, 2001, and the large view represents an area of about 380 kilometers x 1900 kilometers. Image courtesy NASA/GSFC/LaRC/JPL, MISR Team.

  3. The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also

  4. A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

  5. Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne; Methven, John

    2016-04-01

    Two contrasting extratropical cyclones were observed over the United Kingdom during the summer 2012 field campaign of the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) project. The first cyclone, observed in July, was a shallow system typical of summer over west Europe while the second cyclone, observed in August, was a much deeper system which developed a potential vorticity (PV) tower. The evolution of these two cyclones was analysed and compared in terms of diabatic effects with respect to two aspects. The first aspect is the amount and distribution of heat produced during the development of each cyclone, measured by the cross-isentropic motion around the cyclone centre. The second aspect is the modification to the circulation around the cyclones' centres, measured by area-averaged isentropic vorticity. The contributions from individual diabatic processes, such as convection, cloud microphysics and radiation, to these two aspects is also considered. The cyclones were analysed via hindcast simulations with a research version of the Met Office Unified Model, enhanced with on-line tracers of diabatic changes of potential temperature and PV. A new methodology for the interpretation of these tracers was also implemented and used. The hindcast simulations were compared with the available dropsonde observations from the field campaign as well as operational analyses and radar rainfall rates. It is shown that, while boundary layer and turbulent mixing processes and cloud microphysics processes contributed to the development of both cyclones, the main differences between the cyclones in terms of diabatic effects could be attributed to differences in convective activity. It is also shown that the contribution from all these diabatic processes to changes in the circulation was modulated by the characteristics of advection around each cyclone in a highly nonlinear fashion. This research establishes a new framework for a systematic comparison

  6. Topic 2.0: Tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition

    OpenAIRE

    Harr, Patrick A.

    2010-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited In this section, progress since ITWC-VI on research, observations and forecasting of tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition is summarized. While tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition are stages at opposite ends of the tropical cyclone lifecycle, significant lack of understanding remains in relation to processes associated with each stage. Formation and extratropical transition involve interactions a...

  7. Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.

    2010-09-01

    Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

  8. Diabatic modification of potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagnon, J.

    2012-12-01

    Representation of diabatic processes and their impact on extratropical cyclones is a likely source of skill degradation in operational numerical weather prediction systems. This investigation examines the source, structure, and magnitude of diabatic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by small-scale and parameterized processes in both mesoscale and global model simulations of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. Simulations of several cold season extratropical storms have been performed using the Met Office Unified Model. Several cases simulated were drawn from the DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical cyclones (DIAMET) observational campaign during which the National Environmental Research Council (NERC) Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement (FAAM) BAE-146 aircraft was deployed. The influence of specific modelled processes was quantified using a set of tracers, each of which represents a history of the PV contributed by a specific segment of the model (e.g., boundary-layer scheme, cloud microphysics, convection scheme , radiation, etc.). This presentation will highlight several differences and similarities in high and low resolution simulations. For example, in high resolution simulations, tropopause folds are sharpened by a tripolar PV anomaly arising from the convection, boundary-layer, and microphysics schemes; this structure is not present in coarser global model simulations. However, a dipole of PV straddling the tropopause is diagnosed in both coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. The PV dipole, which is strongly influenced by long-wave radiative cooling, increases the gradient of PV near the tropopause and therefore modifies the characteristics Rossby wave propagation and moist baroclinic wave growth.

  9. CYGNSS Surface Wind Observations and Surface Flux Estimates within Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launched in December 2016, aims to improve estimates of surface wind speeds over the tropical oceans. While CYGNSS's core mission is to provide better estimates of surface winds within the core of tropical cyclones, previous research has shown that the constellation, with its orbital inclination of 35°, also has the ability to observe numerous extratropical cyclones that form in the lower latitudes. Along with its high spatial and temporal resolution, CYGNSS can provide new insights into how extratropical cyclones develop and evolve, especially in the presence of thick clouds and precipitation. We will demonstrate this by presenting case studies of multiple extratropical cyclones observed by CYGNSS early on in its mission in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By using the improved estimates of surface wind speeds from CYGNSS, we can obtain better estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones. Surface heat fluxes, driven by surface winds and strong vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature, play a key role in marine cyclogenesis as they increase instability within the boundary layer and may contribute to extreme marine cyclogenesis. In the past, it has been difficult to estimate surface heat fluxes from space borne instruments, as these fluxes cannot be observed directly from space, and deficiencies in spatial coverage and attenuation from clouds and precipitation lead to inaccurate estimates of surface flux components, such as surface wind speeds. While CYGNSS only contributes estimates of surface wind speeds, we can combine this data with other reanalysis and satellite data to provide improved estimates of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones and throughout the entire CYGNSS mission.

  10. An A-Train Climatology of Extratropical Cyclone Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Kahn, Brian; Bauer, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main purveyors of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, especially in winter, and have a significant radiative impact through the clouds they generate. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have trouble representing precipitation and clouds in ETCs, and this might partly explain why current GCMs disagree on to the evolution of these systems in a warming climate. Collectively, the A-train observations of MODIS, CloudSat, CALIPSO, AIRS and AMSR-E have given us a unique perspective on ETCs: over the past 10 years these observations have allowed us to construct a climatology of clouds and precipitation associated with these storms. This has proved very useful for model evaluation as well in studies aimed at improving understanding of moist processes in these dynamically active conditions. Using the A-train observational suite and an objective cyclone and front identification algorithm we have constructed cyclone centric datasets that consist of an observation-based characterization of clouds and precipitation in ETCs and their sensitivity to large scale environments. In this presentation, we will summarize the advances in our knowledge of the climatological properties of cloud and precipitation in ETCs acquired with this unique dataset. In particular, we will present what we have learned about southern ocean ETCs, for which the A-train observations have filled a gap in this data sparse region. In addition, CloudSat and CALIPSO have for the first time provided information on the vertical distribution of clouds in ETCs and across warm and cold fronts. We will also discuss how these observations have helped identify key areas for improvement in moist processes in recent GCMs. Recently, we have begun to explore the interaction between aerosol and cloud cover in ETCs using MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO. We will show how aerosols are climatologically distributed within northern hemisphere ETCs, and how this relates to cloud cover.

  11. A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

    OpenAIRE

    Laiyemo, Razaak O.

    2012-01-01

    Using data compiled by the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, a hurricane force extratropical cyclone climatology is created for three cold seasons. Using the criteria of Sanders and Gyakum (1980), it is found that 75% of the 259 storms explosively deepened. The frequency maximum in the Atlantic basin is located to the southeast of Greenland. In the Pacific, two maxima to the east of Japan are identified. These results are in good agreement with previous studies, despite differ...

  12. Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months ...

  13. The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

    2017-12-01

    The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

  14. The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watterson, I.G. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale (Australia)

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones, and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM, under rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal distribution of cyclones appears broadly realistic during 1961-1990. By 2071-2100, with 3 K global warming, numbers over 20 deg N to 70 deg N decrease by 6% in winter and 2% annually, with similar results for the south. The average intensity of cyclones, from relative central pressure and other measures, is largely unchanged however. 30-yr extremes of dynamic intensity also show little clear change, including values averaged over continents. Mean rain rates at cyclone centres are typically at least double rates from all days. Rates during cyclones increase by an average 14% in the northern winter under global warming. Rates over adjacent grid squares and during the previous day increase similarly, as do extreme rates. Results from simulations of the higher-resolution (1.8 deg grid) Mark 3 GCM are similar, with widespread increases in rain rates but not in cyclone intensity. The analyses suggest that latent heating during storms increases, as anticipated due to the increased moisture capacity of the warmer atmosphere. However, any role for enhanced heating in storm development in the GCMs is apparently masked by other factors. An exception is a 5% increase in extreme intensity around 55 deg S in Mark 3, despite decreased numbers of lows, a factor assessed using extreme value theory. Further studies with yet higher-resolution models may be needed to examine the potential realism of these results, particularly with regard to extremes at smaller scale.

  15. Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion for Intense Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few intense extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under historic climate conditions. This bias may arise from the interactions of multiple drivers, including surface temperature gradients, latent heating in the lower troposphere, and the upper-level jet stream. Previous attempts to quantify the importance of these drivers include idealized model experiments or statistical approaches. The first method however cannot easily be implemented for a multi-GCM ensemble, and the second approach does not disentangle the interactions among drivers, nor does it prove causality. An alternative method that overcomes these limitations is piecewise potential vorticity inversion (PPVI). PPVI derives the wind and geopotential height fields by inverting potential vorticity (PV) for discrete atmospheric levels. Despite being a powerful diagnostic tool, PPVI has primarily been used to study the dynamics of individual events only. This study presents the first PPVI climatology for the 5% most intense NH ETCs that occurred from 1980 to 2016. Conducting PPVI to 3273 ETC tracks identified in ERA-Interim reanalysis, we quantified the contributions from 3 atmospheric layers to ETC intensity. The respective layers are the surface (1000 hPa), a lower atmospheric level (700-850 hPa) and an upper atmospheric level (100-500 hPa) that are associated with the contributions from surface temperature gradients, latent heating, and the jet stream, respectively. Results show that contributions are dominated by the lower level (40%), followed by the upper level (20%) and the surface (17%), while the remaining 23% are associated with the background flow. Contributions from the surface and the lower level are stronger in the western ocean basins owed to the presence of the warm ocean currents, while contributions from the upper level are stronger in the eastern basins. Vertical cross sections of ETC-centered composites show an

  16. Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution in Extratropical Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

    2016-01-01

    Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and an extratropical cyclone database,the climatological distribution of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in extratropical cyclones is explored based solely on observations. Cyclone-centered composites of aerosol optical depth are constructed for the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ocean regions, and their seasonal variations are examined. These composites are found to be qualitatively stable when the impact of clouds and surface insolation or brightness is tested. The larger AODs occur in spring and summer and are preferentially found in the warm frontal and in the post-cold frontal regions in all seasons. The fine mode aerosols dominate the cold sector AODs, but the coarse mode aerosols display large AODs in the warm sector. These differences between the aerosol modes are related to the varying source regions of the aerosols and could potentially have different impacts on cloud and precipitation within the cyclones.

  17. A multispectral study of an extratropical cyclone with Nimbus 3 medium resolution infrared radiometer data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holub, R.; Shenk, W. E.

    1973-01-01

    Four registered channels (0.2 to 4, 6.5 to 7, 10 to 11, and 20 to 23 microns) of the Nimbus 3 Medium Resolution Infrared Radiometer (MRIR) were used to study 24-hr changes in the structure of an extratropical cyclone during a 6-day period in May 1969. Use of a stereographic-horizon map projection insured that the storm was mapped with a single perspective throughout the series and allowed the convenient preparation of 24-hr difference maps of the infrared radiation fields. Single-channel and multispectral analysis techniques were employed to establish the positions and vertical slopes of jetstreams, large cloud systems, and major features of middle and upper tropospheric circulation. Use of these techniques plus the difference maps and continuity of observation allowed the early detection of secondary cyclones developing within the circulation of the primary cyclone. An automated, multispectral cloud-type identification technique was developed, and comparisons that were made with conventional ship reports and with high-resolution visual data from the image dissector camera system showed good agreement.

  18. Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2015-04-01

    Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

  19. Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones and relationship with NAO and jet intensity based on the IMILAST cyclone database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David B.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Shaffrey, Len C.

    2017-04-01

    Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area, particularly during wintertime. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, such series (clusters) of storms may cause large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. Based on winter (DJF) cyclone counts from the IMILAST cyclone database, we explore the representation of serial clustering in the ERA-Interim period and its relationship with the NAO-phase and jet intensity. With this aim, clustering is estimated by the dispersion of winter (DJF) cyclone passages for each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods, although the exact location and the dispersion magnitude may vary. The relationship between clustering and (i) the NAO-phase and (ii) jet intensity over the North Atlantic is statistically evaluated. Results show that the NAO-index and the jet intensity show a strong contribution to clustering, even though some spread is found between methods. We conclude that the general features of clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO and jet intensity on cyclone dispersion.

  20. Observational-numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical Cyclones Using FGGE Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wash, C. H.; Elsberry, R. L.

    1984-01-01

    The accomplishments, current research, and future plans of a study investigating the development, maturation, and decay of maritime extratropical cyclones are reported. Three cases of explosive cyclogenesis during the first GARP global experiment (FGGE) DOP-1 were studied diagnostically using storm-following budgets derived from the ECMWF and GLAS level III-b analyses. Mass, vorticity and angular momentum budgets for the moving storm environment were computed for each case. Key results from these studies include: (1) demonstration that the FGGE analyses can be used to explore oceanic circulations; (2) isolation of the role of upper level jet streaks in the initiation of the explosive period in all three cases; and (3) illustration of the lower tropospheric destabilization during each rapid deepening period, which is primarily due to sensible heating of the cold air by the warmer ocean surface. The physics package of the Navy global forecast model was successfully utilized in a semi-prognostic mode to estimate diabatic components of oceanic cyclone systems. Fields of sensible and latent heat fluxes, radiational heating and inferred cloud structures were also computed.

  1. Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Haiyan; Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2008-06-15

    Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950-1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. (orig.)

  2. A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Sansom, Phil G.; Stephenson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the unce...

  3. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  4. Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim G. Pinto

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979–2010. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean of winter [December – February (DJF] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on cyclone clustering displays a similar pattern for all tracking methods, with one maximum near Iceland and another between the Azores and Iberia. The differences in variance between methods are not related with different sensitivities to the NAO, which can account to over 50% of the clustering in some regions. We conclude that the general features of underdispersion and overdispersion of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO on cyclone dispersion.

  5. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2013-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  6. Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Maofeng

    Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

  7. Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulbrich, Uwe; Grieger, Jens [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology; Leckebusch, Gregor C. [Birmingham Univ. (United Kingdom). School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences] [and others

    2013-02-15

    For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods. (orig.)

  8. An examination of extratropical cyclone response to changes in baroclinicity and temperature in an idealized environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Gregory; Posselt, Derek J.; Booth, James F.

    2018-02-01

    The dynamics and precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to be sensitive to changes in the cyclone environment, with increases in bulk water vapor and baroclinicity both leading to increases in storm strength and precipitation. Studies that demonstrate this sensitivity have commonly varied either the cyclone moisture or baroclinicity, but seldom both. In a changing climate, in which the near-surface equator to pole temperature gradient may weaken while the bulk water vapor content of the atmosphere increases, it is important to understand the relative response of ETC strength and precipitation to changes in both factors simultaneously. In this study, idealized simulations of ETC development are conducted in a moist environment using a model with a full suite of moist physics parameterizations. The bulk temperature (and water vapor content) and baroclinicity are systematically varied one at a time, then simultaneously, and the effect of these variations on the storm strength and precipitation is assessed. ETC intensity exhibits the well-documented response to changes in baroclinicity, with stronger ETCs forming in higher baroclinicity environments. However, increasing water vapor content produces non-monotonic changes in storm strength, in which storm intensity first increases with increasing environmental water vapor, then decreases above a threshold value. Examination of the storm geographic extent indicates cyclone size also decreases above a threshold value of bulk environmental temperature (and water vapor). Decrease in storm size is concomitant with an increase in the convective fraction of precipitation and a shift in the vertical distribution of latent heating. The results indicate the existence of at least two regimes for ETC development, each of which exhibit significantly different distributions of PV due to differences in timing and location of convective heating.

  9. Understanding the impact of climate change on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, Ruth E. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Extra-tropical cyclones strongly influence weather and climate in mid-latitudes and any future changes may have large impacts on the local scale. In this study Northern Hemisphere storms are analysed in ensembles of time-slice experiments carried out with an atmosphere only model with present day and future anthropogenic emissions. The present day experiment is forced by observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice. The sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice for the future experiment are derived by adding anomalies, from parallel but lower resolution coupled model experiments, to the observed data. The storms in the present day simulation compare fairly well with observations in all seasons but some errors remain. In the future simulations there is some evidence of a poleward shift in the storm tracks in some seasons and regions. There are fewer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring. The northeast end of the North Atlantic storm track is shifted south in winter giving more storms and increased frequency of strong winds over the British Isles. This shift is related to an increase in baroclinicity and a southward shift of the jet that occurs as a response to a minimum in ocean warming in the central North Atlantic. An increase in the frequency of storms over the UK is likely to cause enhanced levels of wind and flood damage. These results concur with those from some other models, however, large uncertainties remain. (orig.)

  10. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sigmond

    Full Text Available A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.

    Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; mesoscale meteorology; middle atmosphere dynamics

  11. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sigmond

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; mesoscale meteorology; middle atmosphere dynamics

  12. Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.; Janoski, T. P.

    2017-12-01

    In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are associated with storms that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Appalachian storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Owing to the rare nature of these events, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks (e.g. high winds, storm surge) given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor "grey swans" to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing "grey swans" is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. Therefore, we use long simulations (over 1,000 years with atmospheric constituents fixed at 1990 levels) from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution. FLOR has been shown to realistically simulate the spatial distribution and climatology of ETCs during the reanalysis era. We will discuss the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.

  13. The Role of the Stratosphere in Explosive Deepening of Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Wilbraham, Robert; Trzeciak, Tomek; Owen, Jenny; Odell, Luke; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Using a combination of an automatic cyclone tracking method and a special version of the classical pressure tendency equation (PTE), changes in surface core pressure of extra-tropical cyclones can be related to contributions from horizontal temperature advection, vertical motion and diabatic processes, i.e. mainly latent heat release in clouds. Here, the PTE is evaluated in 3°x3° boxes located over the cyclone positions at 6-hourly basis, thus following the movement of a given storm at each time step. PTE calculations are performed from the surface to 100 hPa. Previous work has shown that this approach can be used to quantify the contribution of diabatic processes to cyclone deepening in an automated way, and can easily be applied to large gridded datasets, in this case ERA-Interim reanalyses. In order to close the mass budget in the PTE, geopotential height tendencies at the upper integration boundary (usually 100 hPa) need to be taken into account. Older studies have assumed this term to be negligible, and this has been confirmed with modern re-analysis data for many explosively deepening storms. However, some historical storms show a remarkable contribution from this term, indicating a substantial warming of the levels above 100hPa. An outstanding example is the Braer Storm of January 1993, which reached a record minimum core pressure of 914 hPa near Iceland. A stepwise increase of the upper integration boundary reveals that substantial geopotential height tendencies reach above 1 hPa. This unusual behaviour appears to be related to the propagation of a deep planetary wave trough from North America towards the North Atlantic basin. A similar but somewhat less dramatic behaviour was found for cyclone Wiebke. Another interesting example is storm Emma, which managed to sustain substantial deepening rates despite adverse positive geopotential height tendencies at 100 hPa. Future work will include a more robust statistical analysis of this problem and a better

  14. The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-30

    MRY) and I developed a collaboration with the NRL/SSMIS Lower-Atmospheric Sounding Capability program; Gene Poe (NRL, Team Leader). The effort is...Geophysical Society Annual Meeting (Nice, Fance ; April 2000), the Extratropical Cyclone Workshop (Monterey, CA; Sept. 2000), and in seminars at NCAR

  15. Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

    2018-03-01

    The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the

  16. Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Studholme

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Extratropical transition (ET has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59 of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study.

  17. The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 2: A link mediated by auroral atmospheric gravity waves?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Prikryl

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Cases of mesoscale cloud bands in extratropical cyclones are observed a few hours after atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs are launched from the auroral ionosphere. It is suggested that the solar-wind-generated auroral AGWs contribute to processes that release instabilities and initiate slantwise convection thus leading to cloud bands and growth of extratropical cyclones. Also, if the AGWs are ducted to low latitudes, they could influence the development of tropical cyclones. The gravity-wave-induced vertical lift may modulate the slantwise convection by releasing the moist symmetric instability at near-threshold conditions in the warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones. Latent heat release associated with the mesoscale slantwise convection has been linked to explosive cyclogenesis and severe weather. The circumstantial and statistical evidence of the solar wind influence on extratropical cyclones is further supported by a statistical analysis of high-level clouds (<440 mb extracted from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP D1 dataset. A statistically significant response of the high-level cloud area index (HCAI to fast solar wind from coronal holes is found in mid-to-high latitudes during autumn-winter and in low latitudes during spring-summer. In the extratropics, this response of the HCAI to solar wind forcing is consistent with the effect on tropospheric vorticity found by Wilcox et al. (1974 and verified by Prikryl et al. (2009. In the tropics, the observed HCAI response, namely a decrease in HCAI at the arrival of solar wind stream followed by an increase a few days later, is similar to that in the northern and southern mid-to-high latitudes. The amplitude of the response nearly doubles for stream interfaces associated with the interplanetary magnetic field BZ component shifting southward. When the IMF BZ after the stream interface shifts northward, the autumn-winter effect weakens or shifts to lower (mid latitudes

  18. Explosive cyclogenesis of extra-tropical cyclone Klaus and its effects in Catalonia. A case study of hurricane force gusts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, J.; López, J. A.; Martín, F.; Morales, G.; Pascual, R.

    2009-09-01

    On 23th and 24th of January 2009, the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus crossed the north of Spain and the south of France producing several deaths and generalized damages. The cyclone of Atlantic origin underwent an explosive deepening of more than 1 hPa per hour at the surface level. Catalonia region was affected by gale-force winds and hurricane gusts. The Atlantic depression underwent a process called explosive cyclogenesis (when a surface cyclone deepens at a rate higher than 1 hPa/hr over 24 hours, approximately) in front of the Spanish Atlantic coasts. In this study we focus on its impact in the Catalonia areas where both synoptic and local effects were important. Also we evaluate the performance of the numerical weather prediction model outputs against observed data.

  19. Extra-Tropical Cyclones at Climate Scales: Comparing Models to Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tselioudis, G.; Bauer, M.; Rossow, W.

    2009-04-01

    Climate is often defined as the accumulation of weather, and weather is not the concern of climate models. Justification for this latter sentiment has long been hidden behind coarse model resolutions and blunt validation tools based on climatological maps. The spatial-temporal resolutions of today's climate models and observations are converging onto meteorological scales, however, which means that with the correct tools we can test the largely unproven assumption that climate model weather is correct enough that its accumulation results in a robust climate simulation. Towards this effort we introduce a new tool for extracting detailed cyclone statistics from observations and climate model output. These include the usual cyclone characteristics (centers, tracks), but also adaptive cyclone-centric composites. We have created a novel dataset, the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS), which provides a detailed 6 hourly assessment of the areas under the influence of mid-latitude cyclones, using a search algorithm that delimits the boundaries of each system from the outer-most closed SLP contour. Using this we then extract composites of cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties from sources such as ISCCP and GPCP to create a large comparative dataset for climate model validation. A demonstration of the potential usefulness of these tools in process-based climate model evaluation studies will be shown.

  20. The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 1: Wilcox effect revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rybanský

    2009-01-01

    mean VAI response to SBP associated with the north-to-south reversal of BZ is leading by up to 2 days the mean VAI response to SBP associated with the south-to-north reversal of BZ. For the latter, less geoeffective events, the VAI minimum deepens (with the above exception of the Northern Hemisphere low-aerosol 500-mb VAI and the VAI maximum is delayed. The phase shift between the mean VAI responses obtained for these two subsets of SBP events may explain the reduced amplitude of the overall Wilcox effect. In a companion paper, Prikryl et al. (2009 propose a new mechanism to explain the Wilcox effect, namely that solar-wind-generated auroral atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs influence the growth of extratropical cyclones. It is also observed that severe extratropical storms, explosive cyclogenesis and significant sea level pressure deepenings of extratropical storms tend to occur within a few days of the arrival of high-speed solar wind. These observations are discussed in the context of the proposed AGW mechanism as well as the previously suggested atmospheric electrical current (AEC model (Tinsley et al., 1994, which requires the presence of stratospheric aerosols for a significant (Wilcox effect.

  1. Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulev, S.K.; Zolina, O.; Grigoriev, S. [AN SSSR, Moscow (USSR). Inst. Okeanologii

    2001-07-01

    The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency, intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s, associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies, and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical procedures are not negligible. (orig.)

  2. Tropical Cyclone Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

    2009-01-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

  3. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

    2018-01-01

    Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

  4. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  5. JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) brings together satellite and in situ data sets from various sources to help you find information for a particular...

  6. Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

    2018-03-01

    The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

  7. Initial Assessment of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

  8. A Field Guide to Extra-Tropical Cyclones: Comparing Models to Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, M.

    2008-12-01

    Climate it is said is the accumulation of weather. And weather is not the concern of climate models. Justification for this latter sentiment has long hidden behind coarse model resolutions and blunt validation tools based on climatological maps and the like. The spatial-temporal resolutions of today's models and observations are converging onto meteorological scales however, which means that with the correct tools we can test the largely unproven assumption that climate model weather is correct enough, or at least lacks perverting biases, such that its accumulation does in fact result in a robust climate prediction. Towards this effort we introduce a new tool for extracting detailed cyclone statistics from climate model output. These include the usual cyclone distribution statistics (maps, histograms), but also adaptive cyclone- centric composites. We have also created a complementary dataset, The MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS), which provides a detailed 6 hourly assessment of the areas under the influence of mid- latitude cyclones based on Reanalysis products. Using this we then extract complimentary composites from sources such as ISCCP and GPCP to create a large comparative dataset for climate model validation. A demonstration of the potential usefulness of these tools will be shown. dime.giss.nasa.gov/mcms/mcms.html

  9. Multi-year composite view of ozone enhancements and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in dry intrusions of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaegle, L.; Wood, R.; Wargan, K.

    2017-12-01

    We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange by using cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) onboard the Aura satellite and contrasting them to composites obtained with Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) as well as with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. MERRA sea level pressure fields are used to identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) between 2005 and 2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites of these cyclones feature a distinct 1,000 km wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased water vapor. In the lowermost stratosphere, MLS composites show that the dry intrusion O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. In the middle troposphere, TES composites display dry intrusion maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of two too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich dry intrusion forms a coherent and vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring dry intrusions, O3 is enhanced by 100 pbbv or 100-130% relative to background conditions at 300 hPa, with a significant contribution reaching pressure altitudes below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30% enhancement). We calculate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42% of the annual NH O3 extratropical STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones is highest in spring and displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

  10. Upper-level enhancement of microphysical processes in extratropical cyclones observed during OLYMPEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, A.; McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.; Zagrodnik, J. P.; Schuldt, T.; Chaplin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Data collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) of fall 2015-winter 2016 offer a unique opportunity to document enhancement of precipitation on the windward side of a mountain range as mid-latitude cyclones encountered the complex terrain of the Olympic Mountains. During the campaign, extensive instrumentation was deployed, including ground-based dual-polarization Doppler radars on the windward and leeward sides of the mountains and research aircraft providing in situ microphysical measurements and triple-frequency radar data over the ground-based sites and highest elevations. These datasets provide unprecedented detail on microphysical and dynamical processes associated with precipitation enhancement. Previous studies of precipitation enhancement over mountains have focused on surface rainfall amounts. However, the airflow over the terrain affects precipitation throughout the vertical columns of the atmosphere passing over the mountains. The OLYMPEX data were collected in a way that allows the mechanisms leading to enhancement to be examined at all levels. In particular, NASA's S-band and the NSF/CSWR DOW6 X-band dual-polarization radars provided high-resolution vertical cross sections in sectors upwind and over the mountains. The degree of upper-level enhancement seen in these radar data was most pronounced when the integrated vapor transport was strong, stability was moist neutral, and melting levels were relatively high. These conditions were often found within the warm sectors of the mid-latitude cyclones observed in OLYMPEX. Within widespread stratiform echo, radar data revealed layers of enhanced differential reflectivity aloft in addition to the enhanced reflectivity. In situ microphysical probe data from the University of North Dakota Citation aircraft were obtained in the context of these ground-based radar observations, which along with observations from the APR3 radar aboard the DC8 research aircraft, provide a unique dataset for

  11. Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2018-01-01

    The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

  12. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-10-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  13. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-01-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  14. Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-01-01

    Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

  15. A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

  16. Extratropical Transition and Re-Intensification of Typhoon Toraji (2001): Large-Scale Circulations, Structural Characteristics, and Mechanism Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiande; Wu, Lixin; Wang, Qi

    2018-06-01

    With the use of data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, the environment and structure of typhoon Toraji (2001) are investigated during the re-intensification (RI) stage of its extratropical transition (ET), a process in which a tropical cyclone transforms into an extratropical or mid-latitude cyclone. The results provide detailed insight into the ET system and identify the specific features of the system, including wind field, a cold and dry intrusion, and a frontal structure in the RI stage. The irrotational wind provides the values of upper-and lower-level jets within the transitioning tropical cyclone and the cyclone over Shandong Peninsula, accompanied with the reduced radius of maximum surface winds around the cyclone center in the lower troposphere. Simultaneously, dry air intrusion enhances the formation of fronts and leads to strong potential instability in the southwest and northeast quadrants. The distribution of frontogenesis shows that the tilting term associated with vertical motion dominates the positive frontogenesis surrounding the cyclone center, especially in the RI stage. The diagnostics of the kinetic energy budget suggest that the divergent kinetic energy generation whose time evolution corresponds well to that of cyclone center pressure is the primary factor for the development of Toraji in the lower troposphere. The ET of Toraji is a compound pattern that contains a development similar to that of a B-type extratropical cyclone within the maintaining phase and an A-type extratropical cyclone within the strengthening period, which corresponds to the distribution of the E-P fluxes with vertically downward propagation in the maintaining stage and upwards momentum in the strengthening phase.

  17. Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact

  18. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L; Cardone, Vincent J; Cox, Andrew T

    2006-01-01

    ... of tropical cyclones The results of this forecasting system would provide real-time information to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved...

  19. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly- developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm -, or hurricane-force winds...there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution...of the transition from a tropical to an extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that

  20. Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

    2018-01-01

    Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

  1. Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

    OpenAIRE

    Anwender, Doris; Cardinali, Carla; Jones, Sarah C.

    2012-01-01

    Data denial experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model are designed to investigate the value of targeted observations for historical extratropical transition (ET) cases over the Atlantic. The impact of removing data from specified locations linked to the ET development is therefore examined. It is shown that the impact of denying data in the near tropical cyclone (TC) environment is, on average, as important as denying data in mid-latitude sensitive...

  2. FAQ HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES

    Science.gov (United States)

    ? A6) What is a sub-tropical cyclone? A7) What is an extratropical cyclone ? A8) What is storm surge easterly wave and what causes them? A5) What is a tropical disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and how is it different from storm tide ? A9) What is a "CDO" ? A10) What is a TUTT ? A11

  3. Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce de León, Sonia; Guedes Soares, Carlos

    2015-02-01

    This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

  4. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  5. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2004-01-01

    .... The results of this forecasting system would provide real-time information to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved advisories...

  6. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L; Cardone, Vincent J; Cox, Andrew T; Augustus, Ellsworth H; Colonnese, Christopher P

    2003-01-01

    .... The results of this forecasting system would provide real-time information to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved advisories...

  7. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2005-01-01

    .... The results of this forecasting system would provide real-time information to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved advisories...

  8. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2005-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  9. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2004-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  10. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L; Cardone, Vincent J; Cox, Andrew T; Augustus, Ellsworth H; Colonnese, Christopher P

    2003-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  11. The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Storm Cindy From a GLM, ISS LIS and GPM Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuscher, Lena; Gatlin, Patrick; Petersen, Walt; Liu, Chuntao; Cecil, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    The distribution of lightning with respect to tropical convective precipitation systems has been well established in previous studies and more recently by the successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). However, TRMM did not provide information about precipitation features poleward of +/-38 deg latitude. Hence we focus on the evolution of lightning within extra-tropical cyclones traversing the mid-latitudes, especially its oceans. To facilitate such studies, lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard GOES-16 was combined with precipitation features obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation of satellites.

  12. Interactions between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems in the Northeastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, A.; Abarca, S. F.; Raga, G. B.; Vargas, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Major challenges in tropical meteorology include the short-term forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which is defined as the maximum tangential wind. Several efforts have been made in order to reach this goal over the last decade: Among these efforts, the study of lightning in the TC inner core (the region inside a disc of 100 km radius from the center) as a proxy to deep convection, has the potential to be used as a predictor to forecast intensity (DeMaria et al, 2012, Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1828-1842).While most studies focus their objectives in studying the lightning flash density in the inner core, we study the probability of flash occurrence for intensifying and weakening cyclones. We have analyzed the trajectories of the observed 62 tropical cyclones that developed in the basin from 2006 to 2009, and classified them into separate clusters according to their trajectories. These clusters can broadly be described as having trajectories mostly oriented: East-West, towards the central Pacific, NW far from the Mexican coast, parallel to the Mexican coast and recurving towards the Mexican coast.We estimate that probability of inner core lightning occurrence increases as cyclones intensify but the probability rapidly decrease as the systems weaken. This is valid for cyclones in most of the clusters. However, the cyclones that exhibit trajectories that recurve towards the Mexican coast, do not present the same relationship between intensity and inner-core lightning probability, these cyclones show little or no decrease in the lightning occurrence probability as they weaken.We hypothesize that one of the reasons for this anomalous behavior is likely the fact that these cyclones interact with mid-latitude systems. Mid-latitude systems are important in determining the recurving trajectory but they may also influence the TC by advecting mid-level moisture towards the TC inner core. This additional supply of moisture as the system is approaching land may enhance deep

  13. Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.; hide

    2010-01-01

    The Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS) is being jointly developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of NASA's Hurricane Science Research Program. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive tropical cyclone database of satellite and airborne observations, in-situ measurements and model simulations containing parameters that pertain to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; the air-sea interaction processes; and the large-scale environment.

  14. Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieger, Stefan; Greenslade, Diana; Kepert, Jeffrey D.

    2018-05-01

    Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4∘) and regional (resolution 1/10∘) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

  15. A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallimore, R. G.; Johnson, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

  16. Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Kruschke

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001 hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased of winter (ONDJFM extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15, while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model's skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.

  17. Criteria for evaluating the condition of a tropical cyclone warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, D

    1999-09-01

    This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.

  18. Impacts of Potential Aircraft Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define the day in September 2008. (From...green is a tropical depression, yellow is a tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define...depended on the location of the observation with respect to the storm and the altitude from which the observation provided a profile of winds

  19. Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernli, Heini; Papritz, Lukas

    2018-02-01

    Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

  20. Scatterometer Observes Extratropical Transition of Pacific Typhoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Tang, Wenqing; Dunbar, R. Scott

    1997-01-01

    From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons, Violet and Tom, as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction (Figure 1), and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds (Figure 2). We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved [e.g., Sinclair, 1993], but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter. The antennas scan two 600-km bands of the ocean, which are separated by a 330-km data gap. From NSCAT observations, surface wind vectors can be derived at 25-km spatial resolution, covering 77% of the ice-free ocean in one day and 97% of the ocean in two days, under both clear and cloudy conditions.

  1. Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doris Anwender

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Data denial experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF model are designed to investigate the value of targeted observations for historical extratropical transition (ET cases over the Atlantic. The impact of removing data from specified locations linked to the ET development is therefore examined. It is shown that the impact of denying data in the near tropical cyclone (TC environment is, on average, as important as denying data in mid-latitude sensitive regions determined using extratropical singular vectors (SV. The impact of data denial over TC regions propagates downstream from the Atlantic towards Europe, with a maximum degradation at day 4. This degradation is mainly attributed to the data denial at the TC stage, i.e. before ET is completed. When data are denied on mid-latitude sensitive regions, the largest degradation is found around day 2 and also after the day 4 forecast. In general, the loss of information content is larger when data are denied in mid-latitude sensitive areas because these identify dynamically active regions. In both denial experiments, aircraft and satellite radiance data are the most influential observations. For the selected case of Hurricane Irene, the largest degradations are found for forecasts initialised while Irene reached its peak intensity. If observations are denied in the near storm environment, the TC mostly disappears from the analysis and the subsequent forecast. This allows the impact of Irene on the formation of the downstream cut-off low to be investigated.

  2. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  3. Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

  4. Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Klinger, Barry [Gorge Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Xue, Yan [National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-08-15

    We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16 Sv (10{sup 6} m{sup 3}/s) near 35 N at 1.2 km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6 Sv near 35 N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45 N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning. (orig.)

  5. Cost-benefit analysis of a green electricity system in Japan considering the indirect economic impacts of tropical cyclones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteban, Miguel; Zhang, Qi; Longarte-Galnares, Gorka

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is likely to profoundly influence future weather patterns, and one consequence of this is the likelihood of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity. The present paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of introducing significant amounts of green energy in the electricity system in Japan in the light of the economic damage that an increase in tropical cyclone intensity could have on GDP growth between 2010 and 2085. Essentially the passage of a tropical cyclone will result not only in physical damage but also on a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity, which has an effect on GDP growth. By comparing the economic performance of different electricity system scenarios with the indirect economic damage of tropical cyclones from 2010 to 2085, based on the yearly economic data of green electricity, fossil fuel, GDP and population, it can be seen that the green scenarios are generally a cost-effective way of mitigating the effects of these weather systems, despite the large amount of initial investments necessary. - Highlights: ► Climate change is likely to increase the future strength of tropical cyclones. ► An increase in tropical cyclone strength would reduce GDP growth in Japan. ► Reducing green-house gas emissions is a cost-effective mitigation strategy.

  6. A climatology based on reanalysis of baroclinic developmental regions in the extratropical northern hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; Noguerol, Marta; Añel, Juan Antonio; Gimeno, Luis

    2008-12-01

    Regions of the occurrence of different phenomena related to the development of baroclinic disturbances are reviewed for the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The occurrence of height lows appears to be related to the orography near the earth's surface and with surface- and upper-air cyclogenesis in the upper troposphere. Over the cyclone tracks, the surface maxima appear to be trapped by land masses, whereas over the Mediterranean Sea they are located on the lee side of mountain ranges. The forcing terms of the geopotential tendency and omega equations mark the genesis (and, by the vorticity advection terms, the path) of the extratropical cyclones on the storm track. They occur mostly over the western coast of the oceans, beginning and having maxima on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Their associated fronts form from the cold air coming from the continents and converging with the warm air over the Gulf and Kuroshio currents. Evident trends are found only for the Atlantic cyclone track (positive) and the Pacific cyclone track (negative) until the last decade when the tendency reverses. Over the southern Pacific, the number of fronts is lower during 1978-1997, coinciding with a period of strong El Niño Southern Oscillation episodes. This information is important for validating numerical models in order to predict changes associated with climate change and to study the behavior of extratropical cyclones and fronts.

  7. Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-10

    tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

  9. TRU waste cyclone drum incinerator and treatment system: January--March 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klingler, L.M.; Batchelder, D.M.; Lewis, E.L.

    1978-01-01

    The cyclone incinerator was operated throughout the past quarter, generating additional data on system characteristics, equipment life expectancies, and by-product generation. Several changes in the incinerator system are in various stages of completion. The lid assembly, secondary chamber, and expansion unit for the new exhaust equipment are nearly ready for installation. A new heat exchanger has been installed in the scrubber system. An ash handling system has been designed for possible future addition to the system. Continuing studies will determine the best delivery mechanism for continuously feeding the cyclone incinerator. Preliminary investigations are being conducted to select an independent system to treat incinerator scrubber solution for recycling and to remove salts and sludge for disposal. Metal samples of two possible materials for incinerator construction were examined for corrosion degradation suffered at the incinerator exhaust outlet. Controlled experiments were conducted on the pressed ash-cement pellet matrix to define compressive strength, mechanical stability, density, and effect of curing environment (wet cure and dry cure). Leachability studies were initiated on pressed sludge/cement matrix in distilled water at ambient temperature. Compressive strengths of sludge/cement pressed matrix samples were investigated. Physical and chemical attributes of incinerated ash were evaluated in relationship to the ash/cement matrix

  10. Intelligent CAE system of CYCLONE type cyclotron main magnet and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tianjue; Chen Yong; Fan Mingwu

    1993-01-01

    The main magnet that features the cyclotron is the most important part in a cyclotron construction. Though there are many codes devoted to solving magnetic field computation problems, the results depend on the user's skill and experience very much. To help a cyclotron magnet designer get acceptable results, an intelligent CAE system for CYCLONE type cyclotron magnet design and machining has been developed. Reasonable good results could be got even the designer with the help from an expert knowledge library installed in the program

  11. Intelligent CAE system of CYCLONE type cyclotron main magnet and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tianjue; Chen Yong; Fan Mingwu

    1992-07-01

    The main magnet that represents the feature of the cyclotron is the most important part in a cyclotron construction. Though there are many codes devoted to solve magnetic field computation problems, the results from them depend on the user's skill and experience very much. To help cyclotron magnet designer to get acceptable results, an intelligent CAE (computer aided engineering) system for CYCLONE type cyclotron magnet design and machining has been developed. A reasonable good results in the design could be got even if the designer is a beginner, because of the help from an expert knowledge library installed in the program

  12. AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

  13. Development of a site specific dynamical tropical cyclone and other extreme weather early warning system for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakrishna, S.S.V.S.; Bhaskar Rao, D.V.; Venkata Srinivas, C.; Venkatesan, R.; Srivastav, Rupa

    2014-01-01

    The project was to study the tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal for the south east coast region in the neighbourhood of Kalpakkam, with the main objectives of developing a methodology for providing early warning of developing storms for Kalpakkam site region based on numerical methods. The main objectives of the project are to develop a numerical modeling system for the forecasting of cyclonic storms that form in the Bay of Bengal and cross the east coast of Kalpakkam. the model performance with respect to the intensity (extreme winds), rainfall and the movement of the storm will be assessed for a number of past cyclonic storms in the region and simulations will focus on the identification of proper model configuration in terms of horizontal/vertical resolutions and physics parameterizations for deriving best predictions and to implement the same for operations forecasting for the Kalpakkam site in Tamil Nadu

  14. Analysis of sensitivity to different parameterization schemes for a subtropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quitián-Hernández, L.; Fernández-González, S.; González-Alemán, J. J.; Valero, F.; Martín, M. L.

    2018-05-01

    A sensitivity analysis to diverse WRF model physical parameterization schemes is carried out during the lifecycle of a Subtropical cyclone (STC). STCs are low-pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics, with hybrid thermal structures. In October 2014, a STC made landfall in the Canary Islands, causing widespread damage from strong winds and precipitation there. The system began to develop on October 18 and its effects lasted until October 21. Accurate simulation of this type of cyclone continues to be a major challenge because of its rapid intensification and unique characteristics. In the present study, several numerical simulations were performed using the WRF model to do a sensitivity analysis of its various parameterization schemes for the development and intensification of the STC. The combination of parameterization schemes that best simulated this type of phenomenon was thereby determined. In particular, the parameterization combinations that included the Tiedtke cumulus schemes had the most positive effects on model results. Moreover, concerning STC track validation, optimal results were attained when the STC was fully formed and all convective processes stabilized. Furthermore, to obtain the parameterization schemes that optimally categorize STC structure, a verification using Cyclone Phase Space is assessed. Consequently, the combination of parameterizations including the Tiedtke cumulus schemes were again the best in categorizing the cyclone's subtropical structure. For strength validation, related atmospheric variables such as wind speed and precipitable water were analyzed. Finally, the effects of using a deterministic or probabilistic approach in simulating intense convective phenomena were evaluated.

  15. Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Stark, David; Yuter, Sandra; Nesbitt, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is 0.25 meters per second too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were 0.25 meters per second too slow, while the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 meters per second too fast. Overall, the BMPs simulate a size distribution close to the observed for D 6 mm in the dendrites, side planes, and mixed habit periods, the BMPs are likely not simulating enough aggregation to create a larger size distribution, although the MORR (double moment) scheme seemed to perform best. These SBNY results will be compared with some results from GCPEx for a warm frontal snow band observed at 18 February 2012.

  16. The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications. The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

  17. Development of an Adaptable Display and Diagnostic System for the Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucera, P. A.; Burek, T.; Halley-Gotway, J.

    2015-12-01

    NCAR's Joint Numerical Testbed Program (JNTP) focuses on the evaluation of experimental forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) with the goal of developing new research tools and diagnostic evaluation methods that can be transitioned to operations. Recent activities include the development of new TC forecast verification methods and the development of an adaptable TC display and diagnostic system. The next generation display and diagnostic system is being developed to support evaluation needs of the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) and broader TC research community. The new hurricane display and diagnostic capabilities allow forecasters and research scientists to more deeply examine the performance of operational and experimental models. The system is built upon modern and flexible technology that includes OpenLayers Mapping tools that are platform independent. The forecast track and intensity along with associated observed track information are stored in an efficient MySQL database. The system provides easy-to-use interactive display system, and provides diagnostic tools to examine forecast track stratified by intensity. Consensus forecasts can be computed and displayed interactively. The system is designed to display information for both real-time and for historical TC cyclones. The display configurations are easily adaptable to meet the needs of the end-user preferences. Ongoing enhancements include improving capabilities for stratification and evaluation of historical best tracks, development and implementation of additional methods to stratify and compute consensus hurricane track and intensity forecasts, and improved graphical display tools. The display is also being enhanced to incorporate gridded forecast, satellite, and sea surface temperature fields. The presentation will provide an overview of the display and diagnostic system development and demonstration of the current capabilities.

  18. Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

    2014-01-01

    A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

  19. Using Enabling Technologies to Advance Data Intensive Analysis Tools in the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knosp, B.; Gangl, M. E.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Kim, R. M.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Niamsuwan, N.; Shen, T. P. J.; Turk, F. J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) brings together satellite, aircraft, and model forecast data from several NASA, NOAA, and other data centers to assist researchers in comparing and analyzing data related to tropical cyclones. The TCIS has been supporting specific science field campaigns, such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) campaign and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign, by creating near real-time (NRT) data visualization portals. These portals are intended to assist in mission planning, enhance the understanding of current physical processes, and improve model data by comparing it to satellite and aircraft observations. The TCIS NRT portals allow the user to view plots on a Google Earth interface. To compliment these visualizations, the team has been working on developing data analysis tools to let the user actively interrogate areas of Level 2 swath and two-dimensional plots they see on their screen. As expected, these observation and model data are quite voluminous and bottlenecks in the system architecture can occur when the databases try to run geospatial searches for data files that need to be read by the tools. To improve the responsiveness of the data analysis tools, the TCIS team has been conducting studies on how to best store Level 2 swath footprints and run sub-second geospatial searches to discover data. The first objective was to improve the sampling accuracy of the footprints being stored in the TCIS database by comparing the Java-based NASA PO.DAAC Level 2 Swath Generator with a TCIS Python swath generator. The second objective was to compare the performance of four database implementations - MySQL, MySQL+Solr, MongoDB, and PostgreSQL - to see which database management system would yield the best geospatial query and storage performance. The final objective was to integrate our chosen technologies with our Joint Probability Density Function (Joint PDF), Wave Number Analysis, and

  20. Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    the global system. The improvement is almost uniform in the extratropics , while in the tropics clear improvements tend to occur in the immediate...surrounding of storms . The latter result suggests that the limited area analysis provides a better representation of the interactions between the...circulation of the storm and the wind field in its immediate vicinity. 2

  1. Validation of High Wind Retrievals from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.; Balasubramaniam, R.; Clarizia, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission, launched in December of 2016, provides all-weather observations of sea surface winds. Using GPS-based bistatic reflectometry, the CYGNSS satellites can estimate sea surface winds even through a hurricane eye wall. This, combined with the high temporal resolution of the CYGNSS constellation (median revisit time of 2.8 hours), yields unprecedented ability to estimate hurricane strength winds. While there are a number of other sources of sea surface wind estimates, such as buoys, dropsondes, passive and active microwave from aircraft and satellite, and models, the combination of all-weather, high accuracy, short revisit time, high spatial coverage, and continuous operation of the CYGNSS mission enables significant advances in the understanding, monitoring, and prediction of cyclones. Validating CYGNSS wind retrievals over the bulk of the global wind speed distribution, which peaks at around 7 meters per second, is relatively straight-forward, requiring spatial-temporal matching of observations with independent sources (such as those mentioned above). Validating CYGNSS wind retrievals for "high" winds (> 20 meters per second), though, is problematic. Such winds occur only in intense storms. While infrequent, making validation opportunities also infrequent and problematic due to their intense nature, such storms are important to study because of the high potential for damage and loss of life. This presentation will describe the efforts of the CYGNSS Calibration/Validation team to gather measurements of high sea surface winds for development and validation of the CYGNSS geophysical model function (GMF), which forms the basis of retrieving winds from CYGNSS observations. The bulk of these observations come from buoy measurements as well as aircraft ("hurricane hunter") measurements from passive microwave and dropsondes. These data are matched in space and time to CYGNSS observations for training of the

  2. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  3. Hydraulic optimization and modeling of hydro-cyclone-systems for treatment and purification of any kind of waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spangemacher Lars

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water is an indispensable resource for many purposes and good drinking water quality is essential for mankind. This article is supposed to show the need for mobile water treatment systems and therefore to give an overview of different mobile drinking water systems and the technologies available for obtaining good water quality. The aim is to develop a simple to operate water treatment system with few processing stages such as multi-cyclone-cartridge and reverse osmosis with energy recuperation, while the focus is set on modeling and optimizing of hydrocyclone systems as the first treatment stage.

  4. Hydraulic optimization and modeling of hydro-cyclone-systems for treatment and purification of any kind of waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangemacher, Lars; Fröhlich, Siegmund; Buse, Hauke

    2017-11-01

    Water is an indispensable resource for many purposes and good drinking water quality is essential for mankind. This article is supposed to show the need for mobile water treatment systems and therefore to give an overview of different mobile drinking water systems and the technologies available for obtaining good water quality. The aim is to develop a simple to operate water treatment system with few processing stages such as multi-cyclone-cartridge and reverse osmosis with energy recuperation, while the focus is set on modeling and optimizing of hydrocyclone systems as the first treatment stage.

  5. Improving energy efficiency of cyclone circuits in coal beneficiation plants by pump-storage systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lijun; Xia, Xiaohua; Zhang, Jiangfeng

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A pump-storage system (PSS) is introduced in a coal washing plant to reduce energy consumption and cost. • Optimal operation of the PSS under TOU tariff is formulated and solved. Life cycle cost analysis of the design is done. • Simulation results show the effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement and load shifting effect of the proposed approach. • An annual 38% reduction of overall cost of the coal washing plant with 2.86 years payback period is achieved. • Capacity improvement of power plants contracted to the coal mine is expected as less electricity is required to get fuel. - Abstract: A pump storage system (PSS) is introduced to the coal preparation dense medium cyclone (DMC) plants to improve their energy efficiency while maintaining the required medium supply. The DMC processes are very energy intensive and inefficient because the medium supply pumps are constantly over-pumping. The PSS presented is to reduce energy consumption and cost by introducing an addition medium circulation loop. The corresponding pump operation optimization problem in the PSS scheme under time-based electricity tariff is formulated and solved, based on which the financial benefits of the design is investigated using life cycle cost analysis. A case study based on the operation status of a South African coal mine is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It is demonstrated that the energy cost can be reduced by more than 50% in the studied case by introducing a 160 m 3 storage tank. According to life cycle analysis, the PSS Option 1 yields an annual 38% reduction of the overall cost for the beneficiation plant with a payback period of 2.68 years

  6. Climatology and classification of spring Saharan cyclone tracks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannachi, A. [Reading University, Department of Meteorology, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom); Awad, A. [King Abdulaziz University, Department of Meteorology, Jeddah (Saudi Arabia); Ammar, K. [Meteorological Authority, Department of Research, Cairo (Egypt)

    2011-08-15

    Spring Saharan cyclones constitute a dominant feature of the not-well-explored Saharan region. In this manuscript, a climatological analysis and classification of Saharan cyclone tracks are presented using 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR sea level pressure (SLP) reanalyses over the Sahara (10 W-50 E, 20 N-50 N) for the Spring (March-April-May) season over the period 1958-2006. A simple tracking procedure based on following SLP minima is used to construct around 640 Spring Saharan cyclone tracks. Saharan cyclones are found to be short-lived compared to their extratropical counterparts with an e-folding time of about 3 days. The lee side of the west Atlas mountain is found to be the main cyclogenetic region for Spring Saharan cyclones. Central Iraq is identified as the main cyclolytic area. A subjective procedure is used next to classify the cyclone tracks where six clusters are identified. Among these clusters the Western Atlas-Asia Minor is the largest and most stretched, whereas Algerian Sahara-Asia Minor is composed of the most long-lived tracks. Upper level flow associated with the tracks has also been examined and the role of large scale baroclinicity in the growth of Saharan cyclones is discussed. (orig.)

  7. Study of the Effectiveness of Outrigger System for High-Rise Composite Buildings for Cyclonic Region

    OpenAIRE

    S. Fawzia; A. Nasir; T. Fatima

    2011-01-01

    The demands of taller structures are becoming imperative almost everywhere in the world in addition to the challenges of material and labor cost, project time line etc. This paper conducted a study keeping in view the challenging nature of high-rise construction with no generic rules for deflection minimizations and frequency control. The effects of cyclonic wind and provision of outriggers on 28-storey, 42-storey and 57-storey are examined in this paper and certain conclusions are made which...

  8. The Improved NRL Tropical Cyclone Monitoring System with a Unified Microwave Brightness Temperature Calibration Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Yang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The near real-time NRL global tropical cyclone (TC monitoring system based on multiple satellite passive microwave (PMW sensors is improved with a new inter-sensor calibration scheme to correct the biases caused by differences in these sensor’s high frequency channels. Since the PMW sensor 89 GHz channel is used in multiple current and near future operational and research satellites, a unified scheme to calibrate all satellite PMW sensor’s ice scattering channels to a common 89 GHz is created so that their brightness temperatures (TBs will be consistent and permit more accurate manual and automated analyses. In order to develop a physically consistent calibration scheme, cloud resolving model simulations of a squall line system over the west Pacific coast and hurricane Bonnie in the Atlantic Ocean are applied to simulate the views from different PMW sensors. To clarify the complicated TB biases due to the competing nature of scattering and emission effects, a four-cloud based calibration scheme is developed (rain, non-rain, light rain, and cloudy. This new physically consistent inter-sensor calibration scheme is then evaluated with the synthetic TBs of hurricane Bonnie and a squall line as well as observed TCs. Results demonstrate the large TB biases up to 13 K for heavy rain situations before calibration between TMI and AMSR-E are reduced to less than 3 K after calibration. The comparison stats show that the overall bias and RMSE are reduced by 74% and 66% for hurricane Bonnie, and 98% and 85% for squall lines, respectively. For the observed hurricane Igor, the bias and RMSE decrease 41% and 25% respectively. This study demonstrates the importance of TB calibrations between PMW sensors in order to systematically monitor the global TC life cycles in terms of intensity, inner core structure and convective organization. A physics-based calibration scheme on TC’s TB corrections developed in this study is able to significantly reduce the

  9. Concept for a cyclonic spray scrubber as a fission product removal system for filtered containment venting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebel, Luke S., E-mail: Luke.Lebel@cnl.ca; Piro, Markus H., E-mail: Markus.Piro@cnl.ca; MacCoy, Reilly, E-mail: Reilly.MacCoy@cnl.ca; Clouthier, Anthony, E-mail: Tony.Clouthier@cnl.ca; Chin, Yu-Shan, E-mail: Sammy.Chin@cnl.ca

    2016-02-15

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • A new cyclonic spray scrubber concept for filtered containment venting is presented. • Mechanistic particle removal model paired with discrete particle CFD simulations. • Calculations predict that very high decontamination factors can be achieved. - Abstract: The application of a cyclonic spray scrubber as a technology for filtered containment venting is proposed in this paper. This study has paired a mechanistic model for the kinetic particle coagulation of with Euler–Lagrange discrete particle simulations in order to predict particle decontamination factors. The continuous phase behavior has been investigated using computational fluid dynamics simulations together with phase Doppler anemometry measurements. Calculations show that spray scrubbing of radionuclide-bearing aerosols could be very effective, and predict that decontamination factors can be in excess of 10{sup 6} for micron sized particles and excess of 10{sup 3} for submicron particles. In the wake of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, filtered containment venting is being viewed as an increasingly important severe accident mitigation technology. Cyclonic spray scrubbing could be implemented as a passive technology for decontaminating containment gases in an emergency prior to their discharge to the atmosphere, and is a novel approach for this application.

  10. Concept for a cyclonic spray scrubber as a fission product removal system for filtered containment venting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebel, Luke S.; Piro, Markus H.; MacCoy, Reilly; Clouthier, Anthony; Chin, Yu-Shan

    2016-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • A new cyclonic spray scrubber concept for filtered containment venting is presented. • Mechanistic particle removal model paired with discrete particle CFD simulations. • Calculations predict that very high decontamination factors can be achieved. - Abstract: The application of a cyclonic spray scrubber as a technology for filtered containment venting is proposed in this paper. This study has paired a mechanistic model for the kinetic particle coagulation of with Euler–Lagrange discrete particle simulations in order to predict particle decontamination factors. The continuous phase behavior has been investigated using computational fluid dynamics simulations together with phase Doppler anemometry measurements. Calculations show that spray scrubbing of radionuclide-bearing aerosols could be very effective, and predict that decontamination factors can be in excess of 10 6 for micron sized particles and excess of 10 3 for submicron particles. In the wake of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, filtered containment venting is being viewed as an increasingly important severe accident mitigation technology. Cyclonic spray scrubbing could be implemented as a passive technology for decontaminating containment gases in an emergency prior to their discharge to the atmosphere, and is a novel approach for this application.

  11. An important role of the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an explosive cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, H.; Kawamura, R.; Kato, M.; Shinoda, T.

    2014-12-01

    We investigated how the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension affects the rapid intensification of an explosive cyclone using a couple atmosphere-ocean non-hydrostatic model, CReSS-NHOES. The Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) and the Non-Hydrostatic Ocean model for the Earth Simulator (NHOES) have been developed by the Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center of Nagoya University and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, respectively. We performed a numerical simulation of an extratropical cyclone migrating along the southern periphery of the Kuroshio Current on January 14, 2013, that developed most rapidly in recent years in the vicinity of Japan. The evolutions of surface fronts related to the cyclone simulated by the CReSS-NHOES closely resemble Shapiro-Keyser model. In the lower troposphere, the cyclone's bent-back front and the associated frontal T-bone structure become evident with the cyclone development. Cold Conveyor Belt (CCB) is also well organized over the northern part of the cyclone. During its developing stage, since the CCB dominates just over the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension, a large amount of moisture is efficiently supplied from the warm current into the CCB. The vapor evaporated from the underlying warm current is transported into the bent-back front by the CCB and converges horizontally in the vicinity of the front. As a result, strong diabatic heating arises over the corresponding moisture convergence area in that vicinity, indicating that the abundant moisture due to the warm current plays a vital role in rapid development of the cyclone through latent heat release processes. Both processes of the moisture transport from the warm current into the cyclone system via the CCB and of the latent heat release around the bent-back front are also confirmed by trajectory analyses. The rapid SLP decrease of the cyclone center can in turn increase the moisture supply from the warm current through

  12. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  13. Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    O’Gorman, Paul A.

    2010-01-01

    Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate chang...

  14. Characteristics of cyclones causing extreme sea levels in the northern Baltic Sea** The study was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT20-11 and Grant ETF9134 and by the EU Regional Development Foundation, Environmental Conservation and Environmental Technology R&D Programme Project No. 3.2.0801.12-0044.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piia Post

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic parameters of extra-tropical cyclones in the northern Baltic are examined in relation to extreme sea level events at Estonian coastal stations between 1948 and 2010. The hypothesis that extreme sea level events might be caused not by one intense extra-tropical cyclone, as suggested by earlier researchers, but by the temporal clustering of cyclones in a certain trajectory corridor, is tested. More detailed analysis of atmospheric conditions at the time of the two most extreme cases support this concept: the sequence of 5 cyclones building up the extreme sea level within about 10 days was very similar in structure and periodicity.

  15. A study on the optimal design of a cyclone system for vacuum cleaner with the consideration of house dust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Gun Ho; Kim, Eung Dal; Kim, Young Soo; Lee, Jae Keun; Ahn, Young Chull; Kim, Dong Gyu

    2011-01-01

    Cyclone, a type of particle collector widely used in the field of ambient sampling and industrial particulate control, is the principal type of gas-solids separator that use a centrifugal force. The goal of this study is to transform conventional cyclone into a new type of cyclone that can be used for the household vacuum cleaners. To meet the goal, first, the analysis about local environment and dust is carried out. Second, it must have enough high-efficiency not to reduce suction power due to clogging of exhaust filter unit. Two single cyclones with central-hopper-dust-outlet and side-wall-dust-outlet and a twin cyclone are designed and fabricated to evaluate, and compare, their dust collection efficiencies and pressure drops. The measurements of separation efficiency for dust by using DMT test dust type 08 are carried out. House dust experiment is additionally performed to check the local matters applicability such as tissue papers, fur and hairs. The collection efficiency of the twin cyclone is found to be 3-6% greater than those of two single cyclones with the same body diameter, inlet and inner cylinder diameter. Twin cyclone with a large body diameter, a small inner cylinder diameter, a short inner cylinder, a narrow inlet has high separation efficiency. This result indicates the possibility of achieving higher collection efficiencies with a twin cyclone

  16. An assessment of the ECMWF tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting system and its use for insurance loss predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aemisegger, F.; Martius, O.; Wüest, M.

    2010-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are amongst the most impressive and destructive weather systems of Earth's atmosphere. The costs related to such intense natural disasters have been rising in recent years and may potentially continue to increase in the near future due to changes in magnitude, timing, duration or location of tropical storms. This is a challenging situation for numerical weather prediction, which should provide a decision basis for short term protective measures through high quality medium range forecasts on the one hand. On the other hand, the insurance system bears great responsibility in elaborating proactive plans in order to face these extreme events that individuals cannot manage independently. Real-time prediction and early warning systems are needed in the insurance sector in order to face an imminent hazard and minimise losses. Early loss estimates are important in order to allocate capital and to communicate to investors. The ECMWF TC identification algorithm delivers information on the track and intensity of storms based on the ensemble forecasting system. This provides a physically based framework to assess the uncertainty in the forecast of a specific event. The performance of the ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts is evaluated in terms of cyclone intensity and location in this study and the value of such a physically-based quantification of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast for the estimation of insurance losses is assessed. An evaluation of track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the years 2005 to 2009 is carried out. Various effects are studied like the differences in forecasts over land or sea, as well as links between storm intensity and forecast error statistics. The value of the ECMWF TC forecasting system for the global re-insurer Swiss Re was assessed by performing insurance loss predictions using their in-house loss model for several case studies of particularly devastating events. The generally known

  17. The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dacre, H.; Gray, S.

    2009-09-01

    Mid-latitude cyclones play a large role in determining the day-to-day weather conditions in western Europe through their associated wind and precipitation patterns. Thus, their typical spatial and evolution characteristics are of great interest to meteorologists, insurance and risk management companies. In this study a feature tracking algorithm is applied to a cyclone database produced using the Hewson-method of cyclone identification, based on low-level gradients of wet-bulb potential temperature, to produce a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones. The aim of this work is to compare the cyclone track and density statistics found in this study with previous climatologies and to determine reasons for any differences. This method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods; the north Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Differences are attributed to cyclone lifetime and strength thresholds, dataset resolution and cyclone identification and tracking methods. Previous work on cyclone development has been largely limited to case studies as opposed to analysis of climatological data, and does not distinguish between the different stages of cyclone evolution. The cyclone database used in this study allows cyclone characteristics to be tracked throughout the cyclone lifecycle. This enables the evaluation of the characteristics of cyclone evolution for systems forming in different genesis regions and a calculation of the spatial distribution and evolution of these characteristics in composite cyclones. It was found that most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher low-level relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary

  18. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  19. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

    2003-04-01

    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  20. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

    2017-07-20

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

  1. Potential Vorticity Streamers as Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    study a developing system with an extratropical precursor (TCS-037) developing into Tropical Storm 16W (TS 16W)” (Schönenberger 2010). This subsection...tropopause maps), the TC genesis event is termed a tropical transition (TT) case. If no such extratropical feature 38 is present, the storm in... extratropical origin is deemed to play an important role in the dynamical evolution leading to tropical cyclogenesis. In contrast, non-TT storms

  2. Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

    2018-03-01

    Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

  3. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE to Assess the Impact of Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL Measurements on the Numerical Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of wind observations has been recognized for many years. However, wind observations—especially three-dimensional global wind measurements—are very limited. A satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL is proposed to measure three-dimensional wind profiles using remote sensing techniques. Assimilating these observations into a mesoscale model is expected to improve the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP models. In order to examine the potential impact of the DWL three-dimensional wind profile observations on the numerical simulation and prediction of tropical cyclones, a set of observing simulation system experiments (OSSEs is performed using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. Results indicate that assimilating the DWL wind observations into the mesoscale numerical model has significant potential for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.

  4. Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure and Intensity Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones, including genesis, intensity change, and extratropical transition. A secondary objective is to understand... storm -centered assimilation algorithm. Basic research in Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the...COMPLETED For the four storms consider (Nuri, Jangmi, Sinlaku, and Hagupit), an 80-member EnKF has been cycled on observations (surface, rawinsondes, GPS

  5. Tropical Cyclone Propagation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gray, William

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the question of tropical cyclone propagation or why the average tropical cyclone moves 1-2 m/s faster and usually 10-20 deg to the left of its surrounding (or 5-7 deg radius) deep layer (850-300 mb) steering current...

  6. Cyclone and after...

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.

    This is a general article meant for the non-specialist reader. The article provides a brief description of the devastating effects of tropical cyclones in general, and super-cyclone that hit the Orissa Coast, India in 1999, which has been described...

  7. Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

    2018-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community. PMID:29674806

  8. Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter’s poles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriani, A.; Mura, A.; Orton, G.; Hansen, C.; Altieri, F.; Moriconi, M. L.; Rogers, J.; Eichstädt, G.; Momary, T.; Ingersoll, A. P.; Filacchione, G.; Sindoni, G.; Tabataba-Vakili, F.; Dinelli, B. M.; Fabiano, F.; Bolton, S. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Atreya, S. K.; Lunine, J. I.; Tosi, F.; Migliorini, A.; Grassi, D.; Piccioni, G.; Noschese, R.; Cicchetti, A.; Plainaki, C.; Olivieri, A.; O’Neill, M. E.; Turrini, D.; Stefani, S.; Sordini, R.; Amoroso, M.

    2018-03-01

    The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter’s weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis β-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter’s low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter’s equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis β-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn’s polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

  9. Forecasting and Warning of Tropical Cyclones in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangzhong Wang

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the global economy, the impact of tropical cyclones has become far-reaching. Thus they are a fundamental issue to be addressed both nationally and globally. The socio-economic impact is particularly noticeable in developing countries, especially China. This paper begins with the effects of cyclones on regional and global economies. Then a brief introduction to the past and current situations and progress in cyclones forecasting and warning in China are presented. Finally the paper gives recommendations about improving and perfecting the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems.

  10. Development of a software and hardware system for monitoring the air cleaning process using a cyclone-separator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolaeva, B. K.; Borisov, A. P.; Zlochevskiy, V. L.

    2017-08-01

    The article is devoted to the development of a hardware-software complex for monitoring and controlling the process of air purification by means of a cyclone-separator. The hardware of this complex is the Arduino platform, to which are connected pressure sensors, air velocities, dustmeters, which allow monitoring of the main parameters of the cyclone-separator. Also, a frequency converter was developed to regulate the rotation speed of an asynchronous motor necessary to correct the flow rate, the control signals of which come with Arduino. The program part of the complex is written in the form of a web application in the programming language JavaScript and inserts into CSS and HTML for the user interface. This program allows you to receive data from sensors, build dependencies in real time and control the speed of rotation of an asynchronous electric drive. The conducted experiment shows that the cleaning efficiency is 95-99.9%, while the airflow at the cyclone inlet is 16-18 m/s, and at the exit 50-70 m/s.

  11. DENSE MEDIUM CYCLONE OPTIMIZATON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerald H. Luttrell; Chris J. Barbee; Peter J. Bethell; Chris J. Wood

    2005-06-30

    Dense medium cyclones (DMCs) are known to be efficient, high-tonnage devices suitable for upgrading particles in the 50 to 0.5 mm size range. This versatile separator, which uses centrifugal forces to enhance the separation of fine particles that cannot be upgraded in static dense medium separators, can be found in most modern coal plants and in a variety of mineral plants treating iron ore, dolomite, diamonds, potash and lead-zinc ores. Due to the high tonnage, a small increase in DMC efficiency can have a large impact on plant profitability. Unfortunately, the knowledge base required to properly design and operate DMCs has been seriously eroded during the past several decades. In an attempt to correct this problem, a set of engineering tools have been developed to allow producers to improve the efficiency of their DMC circuits. These tools include (1) low-cost density tracers that can be used by plant operators to rapidly assess DMC performance, (2) mathematical process models that can be used to predict the influence of changes in operating and design variables on DMC performance, and (3) an expert advisor system that provides plant operators with a user-friendly interface for evaluating, optimizing and trouble-shooting DMC circuits. The field data required to develop these tools was collected by conducting detailed sampling and evaluation programs at several industrial plant sites. These data were used to demonstrate the technical, economic and environmental benefits that can be realized through the application of these engineering tools.

  12. 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dillon, C

    1997-01-01

    .... Separate bulletins are issued for the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - Defines a specific area when synoptic, satellite, or other germane data indicate development of a significant tropical cyclone (TC...

  13. The contribution of the strength and structure of extratropical cyclones to observed cloud-aerosol relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Grandey, B. S.; Stier, P.; Grainger, R. G.; Wagner, T. M.

    2013-01-01

    Meteorological conditions may drive relationships between aerosol and cloud-related properties. It is important to account for the meteorological contribution to observed cloud–aerosol relationships in order to improve understanding of aerosol–cloud–climate interactions. A new method of investigating the contribution of meteorological covariation to observed cloud–aerosol relationships is introduced. Other studies have investigated the contribution of local meteorology to cl...

  14. The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Cusack, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling e...

  15. The observed clustering of damaging extra-tropical cyclones in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    S. Cusack

    2015-01-01

    The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the re/insurance industry. Management of the risk is impaired by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from historical storm datasets typically covering the past few decades. The uncertainties are unusually large because clustering depends on the variance of storm counts. Eight storm datasets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainti...

  16. Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

    2012-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

  17. Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

    2013-04-01

    on Samoa totalled to US130 million. Cyclone Val caused damage and destruction to 95% of houses in Samoa and severe crop damage; total damage was estimated as US200 million. Recently, severe tropical cyclone Evan affected Samoa and Fiji (December 2012). Significant progress in operational tropical cyclone forecasting has been achieved over the past few decades which resulted in improving early warning system but death toll attributed to cyclones is still high - at least 14 deaths in Samoa are related to cyclone Evan (luckily, no death reports in Fiji). Cyclone-related economic losses also remain very high making significant negative impact on economies of the countries. Preliminary assessment of damage caused by cyclone Evan in Fiji indicates loses of about 75.29 million. By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories. In addition, geographic shifts in distribution of tropical cyclone occurrences caused by warming of the atmospheric and oceanic environment are possible. This should be taken in consideration by authorities of the Pacific Island Countries when developing adaptation strategies to increasing tropical cyclone risk due to climate change.

  18. South-coast cyclone in Japan during El Niño-caused warm winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueda, Hiroaki; Amagai, Yuusuke; Hayasaki, Masamitsu

    2017-05-01

    La Niña conditions during boreal winter sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing winters, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing winters, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as warm winter in Japan.

  19. Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics through a Southerly Conveyor

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Zhuo; Chang, C.-P.; Wang, Bin; Jin, Fei-fei

    2005-01-01

    Rossby wave propagation theory predicts that Rossby waves in a tropical easterly flow cannot escape from the Tropics to the extratropics. Here the authors show that a southerly flow component in the basic state (a southerly conveyor) may transfer a Rossby wave source northward; thus, a forcing embedded in the deep tropical easterlies may excite a Rossby wave response in the extratropical westerlies. It is shown that the southerly conveyor determines the location of the effective R...

  20. Maintenance of extratropical low-frequency variabilities in the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ting, M.

    1994-01-01

    The extratropical low-frequency variability is one of the most important components in extratropical dynamics. While there are some understanding of the high-frequency, synoptic scale storm track eddy development due to baroclinic instability theory, its low-frequency counterpart is poorly understood and the theory for that is slowly evolving. The main difficulty seems to be lying on the fact that the problem is three dimensional in nature

  1. Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

    2013-04-01

    Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  2. Tropical to extratropical: Marine environmental changes associated with Superstorm Sandy prior to its landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

    2014-12-01

    Superstorm Sandy was a massive storm that impacted the U.S. East Coast on 22-31 October 2012, generating large waves, record storm surges, and major damage. The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system was applied to hindcast this storm. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity of air-sea-wave coupling were used to depict characteristics of this immense storm as it underwent tropical to extratropical transition. Regardless of coupling complexity, model-simulated tracks were all similar to the observations, suggesting the storm track was largely determined by large-scale synoptic atmospheric circulation, rather than by local processes resolved through model coupling. Analyses of the sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and upper atmospheric shear parameters showed that as a result of the extratropical transition and despite the storm encountering much cooler shelf water, its intensity and strength were not significantly impacted. Ocean coupling was not as important as originally thought for Sandy.

  3. A Look Under the Hood: How the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System Uses Database Technologies to Present Big Data to Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knosp, B.; Gangl, M.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Kim, R. M.; Li, P.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2015-12-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) brings together satellite, aircraft, and model forecast data from several NASA, NOAA, and other data centers to assist researchers in comparing and analyzing data and model forecast related to tropical cyclones. The TCIS has been running a near-real time (NRT) data portal during North Atlantic hurricane season that typically runs from June through October each year, since 2010. Data collected by the TCIS varies by type, format, contents, and frequency and is served to the user in two ways: (1) as image overlays on a virtual globe and (2) as derived output from a suite of analysis tools. In order to support these two functions, the data must be collected and then made searchable by criteria such as date, mission, product, pressure level, and geospatial region. Creating a database architecture that is flexible enough to manage, intelligently interrogate, and ultimately present this disparate data to the user in a meaningful way has been the primary challenge. The database solution for the TCIS has been to use a hybrid MySQL + Solr implementation. After testing other relational database and NoSQL solutions, such as PostgreSQL and MongoDB respectively, this solution has given the TCIS the best offerings in terms of query speed and result reliability. This database solution also supports the challenging (and memory overwhelming) geospatial queries that are necessary to support analysis tools requested by users. Though hardly new technologies on their own, our implementation of MySQL + Solr had to be customized and tuned to be able to accurately store, index, and search the TCIS data holdings. In this presentation, we will discuss how we arrived on our MySQL + Solr database architecture, why it offers us the most consistent fast and reliable results, and how it supports our front end so that we can offer users a look into our "big data" holdings.

  4. Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-12

    structure on the evolving storm behaviour. 13 7. Large scale influences on Rapid Intensification and Extratropical Transition: RI and ET...assimilation techniques to better initialize and validate TC structures (including the intense inner core and storm asymmetries) consistent with the large...Without vortex specification, initial conditions usually contain a weak and misplaced circulation. Based on estimates of central pressure and storm size

  5. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  6. Commercial Cyclone Incinerator Demonstration Program: April-September 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, B.M.

    1979-01-01

    The commercial cyclone incinerator program was designed to study the effects of burning low-level waste contaminated with beta and gamma emitters in a cyclone system. The ultimate program goal is the demonstration of a cyclone incinerator at a nuclear power plant. During the past six months, the first program objective, NRC review of the Feasibility Plan, was achieved, and work began on the second objective, Complete Incinerator Feasibility Plan. Potential applications for the cyclone incinerator have been investigated. The feasibility plan for the incinerator system was reviewed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Following a series of cold checkout burns, implementation of the feasibility plan was begun with the start of laboratory-scale experiments. Inconel 601 is being investigated as a material of construction for the incinerator burn chamber

  7. Up-date on cyclone combustion and cyclone boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmo, Felipe Alfaia do; Nogueira, Manoel Fernandes Martins; Rocha, Rodrigo Carnera Castro da; Gazel, Hussein Felix; Martins, Diego Henrique dos Reis [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Campus Universitario Jose da Silveira Netto], E-mails: mfmn@ufpa.br, mfmn@ufpa.br

    2010-07-01

    The boiler concept has been around for more than 70 years, and there are many types available. Boilers provide steam or hot water for industrial and commercial use. The Federal University of Para (UFPA) through the research group EBMA (Energy,Biomass and Environment) has been developing cyclonic furnace with a water wall, a boiler, aiming to use regional timbers (sawdust) and agro-industries residues as fuel to produce steam to be used in industrial processes as well as in power generation,. The use of cyclonic combustion for burning waste instead of burning in a fixed bed is mainly due to two factors efficiency improvement causing a more compact boiler and less risk of explosion, since their process does not generate an accumulation of volatile. Present state-of-art for commercial cyclone boilers has as set up a cyclone combustor with two combustion chambers, in fluid communication, where there ducts for supplying air and fuel directly into the first chamber and for forming a cyclonic flow pattern and a heat exchanger surrounding the second chamber for keeping low combustion temperature in both chambers. This paper shows the results of a literature review about design, construction and operation of cyclonic boilers using solid, liquid or gaseous fuel. This information has been used for the design of a cyclone boiler to be constructed at UFPA for research purposes and its basic concept is presented at the end of this article. (author)

  8. Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.

    2015-12-01

    A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

  9. Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

  10. Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2018-05-01

    Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  11. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HUD HUD ON COASTAL REGION OF VISAKHAPATNAM, ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vivek

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangements of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. On 6th October 2014 Hud Hud originates from a low pressure system that formed under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea. On 9th October 2014 the IMD department classified the Hud Hud as a very severe cyclonic storm on IMD scale and category 4 on Staffir-Simpson scale. The cyclone hit the coast of Visakhapatnam on 12th October 2014 at wind speed of 175 km/h which caused extensive damage to the city and the neighbouring districts. The damage caused by Cyclone Hud Hud not only changed the landscape of the port city, but also made it the first city in the country to be directly hit by a cyclone since 1891 as per the records of the IMD. The remote sensing technique used here is NDVI. NDVI will separate vegetation and non-vegetation part. The NDVI will be classified in ERDAS and calculated the area using ARCGIS. The satellite data of 4th October 2014 show s before the cyclone, 14th October 2014 shows after the cyclone and 7th December 2014 after two month of cyclone.

  12. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data...-extratropical-storms/home . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Brooke Stewart, National Climatic Data Center, 151.../noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves-extratropical-storms/home . Topics To Be Addressed This forum will address...

  13. An examination of Southwest Pacific explosive cyclones, 1989 to 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, M T; Pezza, A B; Kreft, P

    2010-01-01

    This study has assembled a climatology of Southwest Pacific explosively developing cyclones, based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA-Interim reanalysis data, over the 21-year period from 1989 to 2009. The recently developed 'combined explosive' expression, a refinement of the 'relative explosive' criterion, was used to identify cyclones deemed explosive with respect to both the drop in central pressure and the climatological pressure gradient. Over the period of analysis, 47 explosive cyclones were identified within the Southwest Pacific, equating to an average of 2.2 explosive events per year. Seasonally, explosive cyclones are most frequent during the winter months, while least frequent during the summer. Two case explosive systems are briefly considered, with their corresponding measures of intensity and scale placed into climatological perspective.

  14. Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akperov, Mirseid; Rinke, Annette; Mokhov, Igor I.; Matthes, Heidrun; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Cassano, John; Christensen, Jens H.; Dembitskaya, Mariya A.; Dethloff, Klaus; Fettweis, Xavier; Glisan, Justin; Gutjahr, Oliver; Heinemann, Günther; Koenigk, Torben; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Laprise, René; Mottram, Ruth; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Scinocca, John F.; Sein, Dmitry; Sobolowski, Stefan; Winger, Katja; Zhang, Wenxin

    2018-03-01

    The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.

  15. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    2000-10-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  16. Climatologia de ciclones explosivos para a área ciclogenética da América do Sul Climatology of explosive cyclones over cyclogenetic area of South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pires Bitencourt

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Ciclones extratropicais são classificados como "explosivos" quando a pressão central decresce 1 hPa h-1 em 24 h. Estes sistemas são importantes sobre a América do Sul devido aos fortes impactos sócio-econômicos. Esse artigo apresenta uma climatologia dos ciclones explosivos para a área ciclogenética da América do Sul, usando dados da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR de 1957 a 2010. A taxa de aprofundamento de um ciclone individual foi analisada com respeito a sua latitude média. Analisou-se vários aspectos, como frequência, gênese, trajetória e aprofundamento em 6 h. Além disso, a profundidade, pressão central e raio dos ciclones explosivos foram comparadas com a climatologia de ciclones não explosivos. O campo de vento horizontal é comparado através de um sistema de coordenada móvel, no qual o centro do ciclone é posicionado no centro de um domínio de 30° lat x 30° lon. Constatou-se que os ciclones explosivos não ocorrem ao norte de 27 °S e, em geral, iniciam sobre o oceano. Também observou-se que, em média, os ciclones explosivos são 5,1 hPa mais profundos, possuem raio 0,41ºlat. maior e pressão central de 15,5 hPa menor, em relação aos ciclones não explosivos. Além disso, os ciclones explosivos geram ventos médios de até 60 % mais intensos que os demais ciclones.Extratropical cyclones are defined as "explosive" when their deepening rate is maintained at 1 hPa h-1 during a 24-h period. Those systems are important over the South American continent due to their severe socio-economic impacts. This study presents a climatology of explosive cyclones over the cyclogenetic area of South America using NCEP-NCAR re-analysis data from 1957 to 2010. The deepening rate of an individual cyclone was classified with respect to their average latitude. Six-hourly storm attributes such as frequency, genesis, tracks, and deepening rates were analyzed. As a second step, their depth, central pressure, and radius were meaningfully

  17. Objective Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in the North-West Pacific Basin Based on Wind Field Information only

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Befort, D. J.; Kruschke, T.

    2016-12-01

    Although only ca. 12% of the global insured losses of natural disasters occurred in Asia, there are two major reasons to be concerned about risks in Asia: a) The fraction of loss events was substantial higher with 39% of which 94% were due to atmospheric processes; b) Asia and especially China, is undergoing quick transitions and especially the insurance market is rapidly growing. In order to allow for the estimation of potential future (loss) impacts in East-Asia, in this study we further developed and applied a feature tracking system based on extreme wind speed occurrences to tropical cyclones, which was originally developed for extra-tropical cyclones (Leckebusch et al., 2008). In principle, wind fields will be identified and tracked once a coherent exceedance of local percentile thresholds is identified. The focus on severe wind impact will allow an objective link between the strength of a cyclone and its potential damages over land. The wind tracking is developed in such a way to be applicable also to course-gridded AOGCM simulation. In the presented configuration the wind tracking algorithm is applied to the Japanese reanalysis (JRA55) and TC Identification is based on 850hPa wind speeds (6h resolution) from 1979 to 2014 over the Western North Pacific region. For validation the IBTrACS Best Track archive version v03r8 is used. Out of all 904 observed tracks, about 62% can be matched to at least one windstorm event identified in JRA55. It is found that the relative amount of matched best tracks increases with the maximum intensity. Thus, a positive matching (hit rate) of above 98% for Violent Typhoons (VTY), above 90% for Very Strong Typhoons (VSTY), about 75% for Typhoons (TY), and still some 50% for less intense TCs (TD, TS, STS) is found. This result is extremely encouraging to apply this technique to AOGCM outputs and to derive information about affected regions and intensity-frequency distributions potentially changed under future climate conditions.

  18. Dissipative soliton vortices and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chefranov, S. G.; Chefranov, A. G.

    2017-10-01

    We have obtained a new exact steady-state solution to the hydrodynamic equation for a viscous incompressible liquid, which is a generalization of the well-known Sullivan solution (1959), taking into account additionally the external (Eckman) friction and rotation of the system as a single whole. In contrast to the radial structure of a Sullivan vortex, different circulation directions of velocity field tangential component are possible in the new solution in the inner and outer cells. We have considered the correspondence of this solution to the radial vortex structure observed in tropical cyclones, where the precisely anticyclonic circulation always exists in the inner core (typhoon, hurricane eye), which is associated with descending vertical currents for the cyclonic direction of rotation (as well as ascending currents) outside this core.

  19. Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kovordanyi, Rita; Roy, Chandan

    2009-01-01

    Many places around the world are exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In spite of massive efforts, a great number of people die each year as a result of cyclone events. To mitigate this damage, improved forecasting techniques must be developed. The technique presented here uses artificial neural networks to interpret NOAA-AVHRR satellite images. A multi-layer neural network, resembling the human visual system, was trained to forecast the movement of cyclones based on sate...

  20. Cyclonic valve test: preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteiro, Andre Sampaio; Moraes, Carlos Alberto C.; Marins, Luiz Philipe M.; Soares, Fabricio; Oliveira, Dennis; Lima, Fabio Soares de; Airao, Vinicius [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Ton, Tijmen [Twister BV, Rijswijk (Netherlands)

    2012-07-01

    For many years, the petroleum industry has been developing a valve that input less shear to the flow for a given required pressure drop and this can be done using the cyclonic concept. This paper presents a comparison between the performances of a cyclonic valve (low shear) and a conventional globe valve. The aim of this work is to show the advantages of using a cyclonic low shear valve instead of the commonly used in the primary separation process by PETROBRAS. Tests were performed at PETROBRAS Experimental Center (NUEX) in Aracaju/SE varying some parameters: water cut; pressure loss (from 4 kgf/cm2 to 10 kgf/cm2); flow rates (30 m3/h and 45 m3/h). Results indicates a better performance of the cyclonic valve, if compared with a conventional one, and also that the difference of the performance, is a function of several parameters (emulsion stability, water content free, and oil properties). The cyclonic valve tested can be applied as a choke valve, as a valve between separation stages (for pressure drop), or for controlling the level of vessels. We must emphasize the importance to avoid the high shear imposed by conventional valves, because once the emulsion is created, it becomes more difficult to break it. New tests are being planned to occur in 2012, but PETROBRAS is also analyzing real cases where the applications could increase the primary process efficiency. In the same way, the future installations are also being designed considering the cyclonic valve usage. (author)

  1. Defense waste cyclone incinerator demonstration program: October--March 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinger, L.M.

    1979-01-01

    The cyclone incinerator developed at Mound has proven to be an effective tool for waste volume reduction. During the first half of FY-1979, efforts have been made to increase the versatility of the system. Incinerator development was continued in three areas. Design changes were drafted for the present developmental incinerator to rectify several minor operational deficiencies of the system. Improvements will be limited to redesign unless installation is required to prove design or to permit implementation of other portions of the plan. The applications development portion of the feasibility plan is focused upon expanding the versatility of the incinerator. An improved delivery system was installed for burning various liquids. An improved continuous feed system was installed and will be demonstrated later this year. Late in FY-1979, work will begin on the conceptual design of a production cyclone incinerator which will handle nonrecoverable TRU waste, and which will fully demonstrate the capabilities of the cyclone incinerator system. Data generated in past years and during FY-1979 are being collected to establish cyclone incineration effects on solids, liquids, and gases in the system. Data reflecting equipment life cycles and corrosion have been tabulated. Basic design criteria for a cyclone incinerator system based on developmental work on the incinerator through FY-1979 have been assembled. The portion of the material dealing with batch-type operation of the incinerator will be published later this year

  2. Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad

  3. Emergency Department Presentations following Tropical Cyclone Yasi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Aitken

    Full Text Available Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville following a tropical cyclone (Yasi. Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender, triage categories, and classification of diseases.Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011 to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012. The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level.There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories--4 and 5; and ICD categories--diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99, and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99. The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98.There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24-48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience.

  4. The dynamics of cyclone clustering in re-analysis and a high-resolution climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priestley, Matthew; Pinto, Joaquim; Dacre, Helen; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-04-01

    Extratropical cyclones have a tendency to occur in groups (clusters) in the exit of the North Atlantic storm track during wintertime, potentially leading to widespread socioeconomic impacts. The Winter of 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterised by the recurrent clustering of intense extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic 250 hPa jet with Rossby wave-breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. Here, we provide for the first time an analysis of all clustered events in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Re-analysis at three latitudes (45˚ N, 55˚ N, 65˚ N) encompassing various regions of Western Europe. The relationship between the occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is studied in detail. Clustering at 55˚ N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)˚ N is associated with RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northwards (southwards). A positive correlation was found between the intensity of the clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships. Finally, analysis has shown that the relationships identified in the re-analysis are also present in a high-resolution coupled global climate model (HiGEM). In particular, clustering is associated with the same dynamical conditions at each of our three latitudes in spite of the identified biases in frequency and intensity of RWB.

  5. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  6. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a summertime extratropical low: analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brioude

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and carbon monoxide measurements sampled during two commercial flights in airstreams of a summertime midlatitude cyclone are analysed with a Lagrangian-based study (backward trajectories and a Reverse Domain Filling technique to gain a comprehensive understanding of transport effects on trace gas distributions. The study demonstrates that summertime cyclones can be associated with deep stratosphere-troposphere transport. A tropopause fold is sampled twice in its life cycle, once in the lower troposphere (O3≃100 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv in the dry airstream of the cyclone, and again in the upper troposphere (O3≃200 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv on the northern side of the large scale potential vorticity feature associated with baroclinic development. In agreement with the maritime development of the cyclone, the chemical composition of the anticyclonic portion of the warm conveyor belt outflow (O3≃40 ppbv; CO≃85 ppbv corresponds to the lowest mixing ratios of both ozone and carbon monoxide in the upper tropospheric airborne observations. The uncertain degree of confidence of the Lagrangian-based technique applied to a 100 km segment of upper level airborne observations with high ozone (200 ppbv and relatively low CO (80 ppbv observed northwest of the cyclone prevents identification of the ozone enrichment process of air parcels embedded in the cyclonic part of the upper level outflow of the warm conveyor belt. Different hypotheses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange are discussed.

  7. NASA CYGNSS Tropical Cyclone Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruf, Chris; Atlas, Robert; Majumdar, Sharan; Ettammal, Suhas; Waliser, Duane

    2017-04-01

    The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission consists of a constellation of eight microsatellites that were launched into low-Earth orbit on 15 December 2016. Each observatory carries a four-channel bistatic scatterometer receiver to measure near surface wind speed over the ocean. The transmitter half of the scatterometer is the constellation of GPS satellites. CYGNSS is designed to address the inadequacy in observations of the inner core of tropical cyclones (TCs) that result from two causes: 1) much of the TC inner core is obscured from conventional remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the eye wall and inner rain bands; and 2) the rapidly evolving (genesis and intensification) stages of the TC life cycle are poorly sampled in time by conventional polar-orbiting, wide-swath surface wind imagers. The retrieval of wind speed by CYGNSS in the presence of heavy precipitation is possible due to the long operating wavelength used by GPS (19 cm), at which scattering and attenuation by rain are negligible. Improved temporal sampling by CYGNSS is possible due to the use of eight spacecraft with 4 scatterometer channels on each one. Median and mean revisit times everywhere in the tropics are 3 and 7 hours, respectively. Wind speed referenced to 10m height above the ocean surface is retrieved from CYGNSS measurements of bistatic radar cross section in a manner roughly analogous to that of conventional ocean wind scatterometers. The technique has been demonstrated previously from space by the UK-DMC and UK-TDS missions. Wind speed is retrieved with 25 km spatial resolution and an uncertainty of 2 m/s at low wind speeds and 10% at wind speeds above 20 m/s. Extensive simulation studies conducted prior to launch indicate that there will be a significant positive impact on TC forecast skill for both track and intensity with CYGNSS measurements assimilated into HWRF numerical forecasts. Simulations of CYGNSS spatial and temporal sampling

  8. Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

    2014-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

  9. Year 2001 Tropical Cyclones of the World

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Year 2001 Tropical Cyclones of the World poster. During calendar year 2001, fifty tropical cyclones with sustained surface winds of at least 64 knots were observed...

  10. Year 2000 Tropical Cyclones of the World

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Year 2000 Tropical Cyclones of the World poster. During calendar year 2000, forty-five tropical cyclones with sustained surface winds of at least 64 knots were...

  11. Thunderstorms caused by southern cyclones in Estonia

    OpenAIRE

    Kaupo Mändla; Sven-Erik Enno; Mait Sepp

    2014-01-01

    The relationships between the frequency and duration of thunderstorms, lightning and southern cyclones over Estonia are presented for the period 1950–2010. A total of 545 southern cyclones and 2106 thunderstorm days were detected, whereas 11.3% of the observed thunder days were associated with southern cyclones. At the same time, 29.2% of all southern cyclones were accompanied by thunderstorms. In the thunder season, however, this percentage was much higher, reaching up to 80% in summer month...

  12. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  13. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

  14. Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Ye, H.; Ralph, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow, long, water vapor rich corridors of the atmosphere that are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport across mid-latitudes and into high latitudes. This suggests a crucial role for ARs in helping establish the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget and hydroclimate variability. However, the contribution of ARs to the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget has yet to be quantified, including impacts on water vapor transport and storage, and precipitation. This study characterizes the roles of AR related atmospheric transport on combined and individual atmospheric water budget variables over extratropical regions of both hemispheres based on MERRA2 reanalysis products during 1997-2014. Results show that poleward water vapor transport related to ARs is strongly related to changes in water vapor storage and especially precipitation in higher latitudes in both hemispheres, with the relationship dependent on averaging period. For example, for the annual cycle climatology, both AR transport and local evaporation support the variation in precipitation. However, on monthly time scales, the water budget at higher latitudes tends to be dominated by the balance between AR transport and precipitation. On pentad and daily time scales, AR transport is related to both precipitation and water vapor storage changes. These results indicate the important role of the episodic, extreme moisture transports associated with ARs in helping establish the high latitude water and energy cycles, and associated hydroclimate.

  15. An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Nam-Young [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Elsner, James B. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-08-15

    An empirical approach for analyzing tropical cyclone climate is presented. The approach uses lifetime-maximum wind speed and cyclone frequency to induce two orthogonal variables labeled ''activity'' and ''efficiency of intensity''. The paired variations of activity and efficiency of intensity along with the opponent variations of frequency and intensity configure a framework for evaluating tropical cyclone climate. Although cyclone activity as defined in this framework is highly correlated with the commonly used exponent indices like accumulated cyclone energy, it does not contain cyclone duration. Empirical quantiles are used to determine threshold intensity levels, and variant year ranges are used to find consistent trends in tropical cyclone climatology. In the western North Pacific, cyclone activity is decreasing despite increases in lifetime-maximum intensity. This is due to overwhelming decreases in cyclone frequency. These changes are also explained by an increasing efficiency of intensity. The North Atlantic shows different behavior. Cyclone activity is increasing due to increasing frequency and, to a lesser extent, increasing intensity. These changes are also explained by a decreasing efficiency of intensity. Tropical cyclone trends over the North Atlantic basin are more consistent over different year ranges than tropical cyclone trends over the western North Pacific. (orig.)

  16. Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

  17. Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2010-11-09

    Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

  18. Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense

  19. 1987 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    as calculated for all tro ical cyclones in each year, is shown in fTa le 5-2A. Table 5-2B includes along-track and cross-track errors for 1987. A...so that the ATCM can maintain the tropical storm circulation during the forecast. Also, sensitivity experiments are being conducted to fmd the best

  20. Microparticle Separation by Cyclonic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karback, Keegan; Leith, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    The ability to separate particles based on their size has wide ranging applications from the industrial to the medical. Currently, cyclonic separators are primarily used in agriculture and manufacturing to syphon out contaminates or products from an air supply. This has led us to believe that cyclonic separation has more applications than the agricultural and industrial. Using the OpenFoam computational package, we were able to determine the flow parameters of a vortex in a cyclonic separator in order to segregate dust particles to a cutoff size of tens of nanometers. To test the model, we constructed an experiment to separate a test dust of various sized particles. We filled a chamber with Arizona test dust and utilized an acoustic suspension technique to segregate particles finer than a coarse cutoff size and introduce them into the cyclonic separation apparatus where they were further separated via a vortex following our computational model. The size of the particles separated from this experiment will be used to further refine our model. Metropolitan State University of Denver, Colorado University of Denver, Dr. Randall Tagg, Dr. Richard Krantz.

  1. Dynamics and segregation of particles in a cyclone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mothes, H.

    1982-01-01

    In cyclone separator systems, the separation efficiency increases with increasing dust concentration, although the centripetal force, which is responsible for particle separation in a vortex, decreases with increasing particle concentration. This is demonstrated by laser-doppler-velocity-measurements. The measurements of separation efficiency together with the determination of particle size using stray radiation show that the effect of particle agglomeration is of major importance in the case of higher particle concentrations. Also smaller particles can be separated from the gas by agglomeration to larger particles, which can easily be separated. The calculations show that the improved separation at higher concentrations can be explained by this particle agglomeration effect. Finally different cyclone design models are discussed on the basis of the experimental results and the theoretical considerations on the particle dynamics in a cyclone. (orig./DG) [de

  2. The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Baik, Jong-Jin; Pierce, Harold F.

    1994-01-01

    The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.

  3. Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

  4. Analysis of small cyclones efficiency for primary treatment of incineration gases of radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halasz, M.R.T.; Massarani, G.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop an efficient gas treatment system, especially small diameter cyclones. The high efficiency justifies the interest in the application in radioactive wastes incinerators because it reduces the amount of radioactive ashes of other gas cleaning steps. The first stage of this work is to establish some promising configurations of high efficiency cyclones through modeling (neural networks). After construction of the equipment , the operation conditions of each small diameter cyclone were obtained and the viability of adaptation of a Post-cyclone (PoC) was also evaluated to increase the efficiency. The results show the effectiveness of the small diameter cyclone PoC set. The efficiency in optimized conditions can be higher than 98% for fine materials (D 50 s = 3,5 g/cm 3 ). (author)

  5. Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T.; Chavas, D. R.

    2017-12-01

    Our understanding of dynamics in our real moist atmosphere is strongly informed by idealized dry models. It is widely believed that tropical cyclones (TCs) are an intrinsically moist phenomenon - relying fundamentally on evaporation and latent heat release - yet recent numerical modeling work has found formation of dry axisymmetric tropical cyclones from a state of dry radiative-convective equilibrium. What can such "dry hurricanes" teach us about intensity, structure, and size of real moist tropical cyclones in nature? Are dry TCs even stable in 3D? What about surfaces that are nearly dry but have some latent heat flux - can they also support TCs? To address these questions, we use the SAM cloud-system resolving model to simulate radiative-convective equilibrium on a rapidly rotating f-plane, subject to constant tropospheric radiative cooling. We use a homogeneous surface with fixed temperature and with surface saturation vapor pressure scaled by a factor 0-1 relative to that over pure water - allowing for continuous variation between moist and dry limits. We also explore cases with surface enthalpy fluxes that are uniform in space and time, where partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes is specified directly. We find that a completely moist surface yields a TC-world where multiple vortices form spontaneously and persist for tens of days. A completely dry surface can also yield a parallel dry TC-world with many vortices that are even more stable and persistent. Spontaneous cyclogenesis, however, is impeded for a range of low to intermediate surface wetness values, and by the combination of large rotation rates and a dry surface. We discuss whether these constraints on spontaneous cyclogenesis might arise from: 1) rain evaporation in the subcloud layer limiting the range of viable surface wetness values, and 2) a natural convective Rossby number limiting the range of viable rotation rates. Finally, we discuss simulations with uniform surface enthalpy

  6. Thunderstorms caused by southern cyclones in Estonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaupo Mändla

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between the frequency and duration of thunderstorms, lightning and southern cyclones over Estonia are presented for the period 1950–2010. A total of 545 southern cyclones and 2106 thunderstorm days were detected, whereas 11.3% of the observed thunder days were associated with southern cyclones. At the same time, 29.2% of all southern cyclones were accompanied by thunderstorms. In the thunder season, however, this percentage was much higher, reaching up to 80% in summer months. The number of thunder days was largest when the centres of southern cyclones passed a measuring station at a distance less than 500 km. The number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes related to southern cyclones was larger than that of any other thunder events. The results of our study demonstrate that the intensity of thunderstorms related to southern cyclones is higher than that of other thunderstorms. Correlation analysis revealed statistically significant relationships between the frequency of thunder days related to southern cyclones and the frequency of southern cyclones, also between the frequency of thunder days related to southern cyclones and days of other thunder events.

  7. Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-05-01

    Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

  8. Impacts of Particulate Matter on Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, W.; Rohli, R. V.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this project is to analyze the relationship between tropical cyclones of the Gulf of Mexico-Atlantic basin and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The daily mean PM2.5 concentration values were collected from United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Tropical cyclone data were collected from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis in Unisys Weather®. The GRIdded Binary (GRIB-formatted) data were downloaded from the Data Support Section of the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Through ArcGIS®, the tropical cyclone tracks were compared with the interpolated daily mean PM2.5 concentration value. Results suggest that the tracks tend to avoid areas with higher PM2.5 concentrations, and the intensity was weakened significantly after passing the PM2.5-rich area. Through simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the pressure and vertical structure of Hurricane Lili were weakened after passing the most PM2.5-rich area in Louisiana. Also, little evidence is found for the possibility of precipitation generated by the approaching tropical cyclone to cleanse the atmosphere of PM2.5 before storm passage. These results have important implications for tropical cyclone prediction as storms approach polluted areas or other places where PM2.5 particles are abundant, not only including urban environments but also in coastal areas where proscribed burns take place during tropical cyclone season, such as during sugarcane harvesting in southern Louisiana.

  9. Marine boundary layer characteristics during a cyclonic storm over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    raise the water level due to the generation of huge waves and .... mum intensity of the system was T2.5 on Dvorak's scale from 15 .... movement of cyclonic storm over land, the low level ... 15 and 18 are classified as deep convective sound-.

  10. Radio Occultation Bending Angle Anomalies During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, Stig

    signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), we show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger...

  11. Bangladesh floods, cyclones and ENSO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, A.M.

    1994-04-01

    It has been found that in general there is a reduction of rainfall in all the regions of Bangladesh in all the seasons - premonsoon, monsoon and post monsoon during El Nino years. It has also been observed that in strong El Nino year Bangladesh is not hit by a catastrophic flood or a catastrophic cyclone. In the past, occurrence of famines in this region of the world coincided with El Nino years. The years of weak El Nino or when the El Nino index is positive seem to be favourable for the occurrence of floods and cyclones in Bangladesh. A theory of the modulation of the monsoon in Bangladesh by the Walker circulation has been described in the paper. (author). 14 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

  12. The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbengue, Cheikh Oumar; Woollings, Tim; Dacre, Helen F.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2018-04-01

    Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector's interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.

  13. Development of a Seasonal Extratropical Cyclone Activity Outlook for the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaskan Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shippee, N. J.; Atkinson, D. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Partain, J.; Gottschalck, J.; Marra, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Storm activity (i.e. 'storminess') and associated forecasting skill in the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska is relatively well understood on a daily to weekly scale, however, two important elements are missing from current capacity. First, there is no way to predict storm activity at the monthly to seasonal time frame. Second, storm activity is characterized in terms that best serve weather specialists, and which are often not very informative for different sectors of the public. Increasing the utility of forecasts for end users requires consultation with these groups, and can include expressing storm activity in terms of, for example, strong-wind return intervals or ship hull strength. These types of forecasts can provide valuable information for use in community planning, resource allocation, or potential risk assessment. A preliminary study of seasonal storminess predictability in the North Pacific and Alaska regions has shown that a key factor related to the annual variation of seasonal storminess is the strength of the Aleutian Low as measured using indices such as the North Pacific Index (NPI) or Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI). Use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify patterns in storminess variability indicates that the primary mode of annual variation is found to be best explained by the variation in the strength of the Aleutian Low. NPI and the first component of storm activity for the entire region are found to be are highly correlated (R = 0.83). This result is supported by the works of others such as Rodionov et al. (2007), who note the impact of the strength of the Aleutian Low on storm track and speed. Additionally, the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with NPI, have been shown to be highly correlated with annual variance in the seasonal storminess for the North Pacific and Alaska. Additional skill has been identified when the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explicitly considered along with that of the NPI. For example, where the December through March NPI anomaly is negative, indicating a strong Aleutian Low, and PDO anomaly is positive, storminess is increased in the Aleutians and the Bering Sea and storms more rapidly exit the Gulf of Alaska. In similar fashion, when the phases of the NPI and PDO anomaly are switched, the storminess increases into the Gulf of Alaska with slower moving storms and longer residence time in the Gulf of Alaska. Methods used to develop the seasonal outlooks and the overall results of the will be overviewed in this presentation.

  14. An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

    2005-12-01

    Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

  15. Tropical cyclones and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F.

    2008-01-01

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  16. Emission control by cyclone combustor technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syred, N; Styles, A C; Sahatimehr, A

    1983-09-01

    Recent work carried out on a multi-inlet gas-fired cyclone combustor has shown that NO formation is reduced to negligible proportions when operated at mixture ratios 1.5 < PHI < 2.2 with combustion occurring under fully premixed fuel conditions. Elimination of hot spots, common to partial premixed systems, has been achieved with mean temperatures below 1300 C, thereby reducing NO emissions (1.5 ppm) by preventing the onset of Zeldovich and prompt mechanisms. The low NO levels are therefore dependent on a combination of low flame front temperature (about 1100 C) and premixed combustion conditions. Owing to the operating mode of combustion, heat transfer at the walls plays an important role in flame stability. Insulation of the cyclone chamber by refractory has been found to extend the operating range to higher mixture ratios. Conversely, it is expected that heat removal from the walls would enable the combustor to operate at mixture ratios nearer to stoichiometric, whilst still giving rise to low levels of NO emission. 17 references.

  17. Thermophysical fundamentals of cyclonic recirculating heating devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpov, S. V.; Zagoskin, A. A.

    2017-10-01

    This report presents the results of experimental and theoretical research of aerodynamics and convective heat transfer in cyclone devices with the new system of external recirculation of heating gas under the influence of radial pressure gradient in a heat carrier’s swirling turbulent flow. The dynamic problem of tangential velocity distribution in a clearance volume is solved at various re-circulation ratio values including limiting quantities (kr = 0; 1) and variations in cyclonic combustion chamber’s design parameters and operating conditions (Rer); the integrated calculation ratios for fundamental aerodynamic characteristics of a recirculation device are derived. The first experimental and numerical studies of convective heat transfer on internal and external surfaces of a hollow shaft in a swirling recirculation flow are derived through the instrumentality of OpenFOAM, these studies are also conducted for a setting of several cylindrical solid inserts. The external surface heat problem of a hollow cylindrical insert is solved with integral and digital methods; generalized similarity equations for the internal and external surfaces extended in range of Reynolds number are derived. The experimental data is in reasonable agreement with the derived curves and the results of mathematic modelling of convective heat transfer. Calculation recommendations for optimal selection of kr values at various ratios of their geometric characteristics and products utilization rate are obtained.

  18. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community.

  19. Cyclonic multiphase flow measurement system GLCC{copyright}1 for oil well capacity evaluation; Sistema de medicion de flujo multifasico mediante tecnologia ciclonica GLCC{copyright}1 para aforo de pozos petroleros

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godoy-Alcantar, J. M; Cervantes-Martinez, G; Cruz-Maya, J. A; Hernandez-Buenfil, M. A; Ramirez-Antonio, I [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F, (Mexico)]. E-mail: mgodoy@imp.mx

    2008-10-15

    This paper shows the development of a portable multiphase flow measurement system based in cyclonic separation technology GLCC{copyright}1. This system is aimed for oil well measurement and was developed in three phases; the first devoted to the geometric design of a cyclonic separator by means of designs sofware GLCCV7.8 and the selection of measurement instrumentation and flux control valves. In the second phase, the automatic control system was designed for the implementation of four control strategies each one related with a possible scenario of the well behavior. The third constitutes the integration of the measurement and control devices through a user interface aimed for visualization, information processing and system's operation and control. Experimental results in oil well measurements show the efficiency and workability of the integrated system. [Spanish] En el presente trabajo se muestra el desarrollo de un sistema portatil para la medicion de flujo multifasico, basado en la tecnologia de separacion ciclonica GLCC{copyright}1 y su utilizacion el aforo de pozos petroleros. El desarrollo del sistema se compone de tres fases, la primera se orienta hacia el diseno geometrico de un separador tipo ciclonico por medio del simulador GLCCV 7.8, asi como el dimensionamiento y la seleccion de los instrumentos de medicion y valvulas de control de flujo. En la segunda fase, se lleva a cabo la etapa de diseno del control automatico del sistema, el cual se fundamenta en el desarrollo e implantacion de cuatro estrategias de control basadas en el comportamiento dinamico de las variables de produccion del pozo; la tercera fase, la constituye el desarrollo de una interfaz para la integracion y operacion conjunta de los componentes de medicion y control del sistema, asi como de visualizacion, procesamiento y almacenamiento de la informacion. Se muestran los resultados experimentales de una prueba de medicion realizada en campo, las mediciones obtenidas muestran la

  20. Estimating Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from Station Observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Fumin; WANG Yongmei; WANG Xiaoling; LI Weijing

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, an objective technique for estimating the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation from station observations is proposed. Based on a comparison between the Original Objective Method (OOM) and the Expert Subjective Method (ESM), the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) for partitioning TC precipitation was developed by analyzing the western North Pacific (WNP) TC historical track and the daily precipitation datasets. Being an objective way of the ESM, OSAT overcomes the main problems in OOM,by changing two fixed parameters in OOM, the thresholds for the distance of the absolute TC precipitation (D0) and the TC size (D1), into variable parameters.Case verification for OSAT was also carried out by applying CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique) daily precipitation measurements, which is NOAA's combined satellite precipitation measurement system. This indicates that OSAT is capable of distinguishing simultaneous TC precipitation rain-belts from those associated with different TCs or with middle-latitude weather systems.

  1. Tropical Cyclone Report, 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    organization as system underwent increased vertical wind shear and loss of latent and sensible heat. HI. TRACK AND MOTION After initially tracking...PASADENA CIUDAD UNIVERSITARIA. MEXICO LISD CAMP SPRINGS CENTER, MD CIVIL DEFENSE, BELAU LOS ANGELES PUBLIC LIBRARY CIVIL DEFENSE, MAJURO MAURITIUS

  2. Tropical Cyclone Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY, BANGKOK LOS ANGELES PUBLIC LIBRARY CHUNG CHENG INSTITUTE, TAIWAN MASS INST OF TECH CITIES SERVICES OIL GAS CORP MCAS FUTENMA CIUDAD ...reached the mountainous oceanic sensible and latent heat sources . The terrain of Laos. system was downgraded to a typhoon at 190600Z, and then to a

  3. Climatological aspects of cyclonic tracks associated with flood events in Crete, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocas, H. A.; Tsanis, I. K.; Katavoutas, G.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Iordanidou, V.; Alexakis, D. D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, an attempt was made to identify the tracks of the synoptic-scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete, a Greek island in the southern Aegean Sea and to investigate their kinematic and dynamic characteristics and vertical structure for a period of 25 years. Furthermore, a comparison is made with the corresponding characteristics of the population of surface cyclones passing over Crete during the same period. The Melbourne University Cyclone Tracking Algorithm was employed to examine the genesis and movement of these cyclones while their vertical profile was examined with the aid of the vertical tracing software, Vertical Tracking Scheme (VTS). The input data are based on ERA INTERIM reanalysis datasets with resolution 0.5° × 0.5° during the period 1990 to 2014. It was found that the vast majority originate mainly over the north African coasts, contrasting the preference of all cyclones passing over Crete to develop within the Southeast Mediterranean. Cyclones associated with the flood events are more intense than the cyclonic population, being mainly characterized by long duration and track length. Furthermore, they reveal characteristics of vertically organized baroclinic systems, suggesting that they are mainly driven by baroclinic processes at upper and lower levels.

  4. Toward an estimation of the relationship between cyclonic structures and damages at the ground in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Porcu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Cyclonic systems dominate European and Mediterranean meteorology throughout the year and often induce severe weather in terms of heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation with related phenomena such as strong winds and lightning. Surface cyclonic structures are often related to well defined precipitation patterns with different scales, duration and intensity. Cyclones confined in the upper troposphere, usually referred to as cut off low, may induce instability at lower levels and the development of convective precipitation.

    In this work the occurrence of cyclonic events (discriminated between surface ones and cut-off lows is analyzed and matched with an economic losses database to highlight a relation between the atmospheric structures and the impact on the social environment in terms of casualties and material damages. The study focus on the continental Europe and, based on the ERA-40 reanalysis, two databases of surface cyclones and cut-off lows have been constructed by means of automatic pattern recognition algorithms. The impact on the local communities is estimated from an insurance company record, which provides the location, date and type of the events, as well as related losses in terms of damages and casualties. Results show the relatively high impact of cyclonic structures on human life in Europe: most of the weather induced damages occur close to a cyclonic center, especially during warm months. Damages and human losses are more frequent from late summer to January, and precipitation is the most relevant meteorological damaging feature throughout the year.

  5. Observations of ice nuclei and heterogeneous freezing in a Western Pacific extratropical storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Stith

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In situ airborne sampling of refractory black carbon (rBC particles and Ice Nuclei (IN was conducted in and near an extratropical cyclonic storm in the western Pacific Ocean during the Pacific Dust Experiment, PACDEX, in the spring of 2007. Airmass origins were from Eastern Asia. Clouds associated primarily with the warm sector of the storm were sampled at various locations and altitudes. Cloud hydrometeors were evaporated by a counterflow virtual impactor (CVI and the residuals were sampled by a single particle soot photometer (SP2 instrument, a continuous flow diffusion chamber ice nucleus detector (CFDC and collected for electron microscope analysis. In clouds containing large ice particles, multiple residual particles were observed downstream of the CVI for each ice particle sampled on average. The fraction of rBC compared to total particles in the residual particles increased with decreasing condensed water content, while the fraction of IN compared to total particles did not, suggesting that the scavenging process for rBC is different than for IN. In the warm sector storm midlevels at temperatures where heterogeneous freezing is expected to be significant (here −24 to −29 °C, IN concentrations from ice particle residuals generally agreed with simultaneous measurements of total ice concentrations or were higher in regions where aggregates of crystals were found, suggesting heterogeneous freezing as the dominant ice formation process in the mid levels of these warm sector clouds. Lower in the storm, at warmer temperatures, ice concentrations were affected by aggregation and were somewhat less than measured IN concentrations at colder temperatures. The results are consistent with ice particles forming at storm mid-levels by heterogeneous freezing on IN, followed by aggregation and sedimentation to lower altitudes. Compositional analysis of the aerosol and back trajectories of the air in the warm sector suggested a possible biomass

  6. Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2015-07-01

    Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

  7. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  8. Cyclone Center: Insights on Historical Tropical Cyclones from Citizen Volunteers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, P.; Hennon, C. C.; Knapp, K. R.; Schreck, C. J., III; Stevens, S. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Rennie, J.; Hennon, P. A.; Kruk, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    The cyclonecenter.org project started in fall 2012 and has been collecting citizen scientist volunteer tropical cyclone intensity estimates ever since. The project is hosted by the Citizen Science Alliance (zooniverse) and the platform is supported by a range of scientists. We have over 30 years of satellite imagery of tropical cyclones but the analysis to date has been done on an ocean-basin by ocean-basin basis and worse still practices have changed over time. We therefore do not, presently, have a homogeneous record relevant for discerning climatic changes. Automated techniques can classify many of the images but have a propensity to be challenged during storm transitions. The problem is fundamentally one where many pairs of eyes are invaluable as there is no substitute for human eyes in discerning patterns. Each image is classified by ten unique users before it is retired. This provides a unique insight into the uncertainty inherent in classification. In the three years of the project much useful data has accrued. This presentation shall highlight some of the results and analyses to date and touch on insights as to what has worked and what perhaps has not worked so well. There are still many images left to complete so its far from too late to jump over to www.cyclonecenter.org and help out.

  9. How can tropical cyclones survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedman, Ann-Sofi

    2013-04-01

    How can tropical cyclones survive? It is important for understanding the development of tropical cyclones to be able to quantify the exchange of enthalpy and momentum between air and water. Air-sea fluxes are often formulated as drag CD and enthalpy CK exchange coefficients. Emanuel, 1986, derived an expression for potential intensity that depends on local environment parameters and is proportional to the ratio of enthalpy and drag coefficients. This ratio should be larger than 0.75 for a cyclone to develop. There are no direct surface measurements of CK/ CD under hurricane conditions and extrapolation from most open-ocean measurements at 25 m/s gives values of CK/ CD0.75 is in accordance with Emanuel's prediction. The high CK values are observed during situations when there is a regime shift of the structure of turbulence in the boundary layer. From spectral analysis it was found that as the boundary layer approaches neutral stratification, smaller-scale eddies become increasingly important in the turbulent transport of humidity and sensible heat and thus enhance the exchange coefficient CK. This turbulence regime is called the UVCN regime and require high wind speed, small temperature difference between air and water, sufficiently strong wind gradients and growing sea condition ( Smedman et al., 2007, Sahlee et al., 2008). What is the difference between world oceans and enclosed seas? The answer is the waves. The wave field over the open oceans is swell dominated but in enclosed seas and coastal areas swell is restricted mainly to low wind speed conditions, and swell is short lived because of short distances to the shores. When swell is present the MABL will be dominated by large eddies of zi size creating weak gradients of wind, temperature and humidity and thus small scale eddies cannot be formed leading to reduced CK-values. However, during hurricane condition the waves are expected to be young, stratification is close to neutral and gradients are sufficiently

  10. Application of Tikhonov regularization method to wind retrieval from scatterometer data II: cyclone wind retrieval with consideration of rain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Jian; Huang Si-Xun; Fei Jian-Fang; Du Hua-Dong; Zhang Liang

    2011-01-01

    According to the conclusion of the simulation experiments in paper I, the Tikhonov regularization method is applied to cyclone wind retrieval with a rain-effect-considering geophysical model function (called GMF+Rain). The GMF+Rain model which is based on the NASA scatterometer-2 (NSCAT2) GMF is presented to compensate for the effects of rain on cyclone wind retrieval. With the multiple solution scheme (MSS), the noise of wind retrieval is effectively suppressed, but the influence of the background increases. It will cause a large wind direction error in ambiguity removal when the background error is large. However, this can be mitigated by the new ambiguity removal method of Tikhonov regularization as proved in the simulation experiments. A case study on an extratropical cyclone of hurricane observed with SeaWinds at 25-km resolution shows that the retrieved wind speed for areas with rain is in better agreement with that derived from the best track analysis for the GMF+Rain model, but the wind direction obtained with the two-dimensional variational (2DVAR) ambiguity removal is incorrect. The new method of Tikhonov regularization effectively improves the performance of wind direction ambiguity removal through choosing appropriate regularization parameters and the retrieved wind speed is almost the same as that obtained from the 2DVAR. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  11. HOMOLOGOUS CYCLONES IN THE QUIET SUN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Xinting; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Zhang, Yuzong; Yang, Shuhong, E-mail: yxt27272@mail.ustc.edu.cn, E-mail: zjun@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: liting@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: yuzong@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2014-02-20

    Through observations with the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, we tracked one rotating network magnetic field (RNF) near the solar equator. It lasted for more than 100 hr, from 2013 February 23 to 28. During its evolution, three cyclones were found to be rooted in this structure. Each cyclone event lasted for about 8 to 10 hr. While near the polar region, another RNF was investigated. It lasted for a shorter time (∼70 hr), from 2013 July 7 to 9. There were two cyclones rooted in the RNF and each lasted for 8 and 11 hr, respectively. For the two given examples, the cyclones have a similar dynamic evolution, and thus we put forward a new term: homologous cyclones. The detected brightening in AIA 171 Å maps indicates the release of energy, which is potentially available to heat the corona.

  12. A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Chang, Simon W.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1994-01-01

    Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.

  13. The impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of the QE II cyclone and an analysis of the jet streak influencing the precyclogenetic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manobianco, John; Uccellini, Louis W.; Brill, Keith F.; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

    1992-01-01

    A mesoscale numerical model is combined with a dynamic data assimilation via Newtonian relaxation, or 'nudging', to provide initial conditions for subsequent simulations of the QE II cyclone. Both the nudging technique and the inclusion of supplementary data are shown to have a large positive impact on the simulation of the QE II cyclone during the initial phase of rapid cyclone development. Within the initial development period (from 1200 to 1800 UTC 9 September 1978), the dynamic assimilation of operational and bogus data yields a coherent two-layer divergence pattern that is not well defined in the model run using only the operational data and static initialization. Diagnostic analysis based on the simulations show that the initial development of the QE II storm between 0000 UTC 9 September and 0000 UTC 10 September was embedded within an indirect circulation of an intense 300-hPa jet streak, was related to baroclinic processes extending throughout a deep portion of the troposphere, and was associated with a classic two-layer mass-divergence profile expected for an extratropical cyclone.

  14. Advantages and risks in increasing cyclone separator length

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, AC; de Groot, M; Peng, W; Dries, HWA; Kater, J

    The effect of cyclone length on separation efficiency and pressure drop has been investigated experimentally and theoretically by varying the length of the cylindrical segment of a cylinder-on-cone cyclone. Experimental results based on cyclone lengths from 2.65 to 6.15 cyclone diameters showed a

  15. Extratropical Forcing Triggered the 2015 Madden-Julian Oscillation-El Niño Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Lee, Ming-Ying; Chow, Chun-Hoe; Jiang, Li-Chiang

    2017-04-24

    In this paper, we report the triggering effect of extratropical perturbation on the onset of an atypical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and onset of the 2015-16 El Niño in March 2015. The MJO exhibited several unique characteristics: the effect of extratropical forcing, atypical genesis location and timing in the equatorial western Pacific, and the extremity of amplitudes in many aspects. The southward-penetrating northerly associated with the extratropical disturbances in the extratropical western North Pacific contributed to triggering the deep convection and westerly wind burst (WWB) and onset of the MJO over the anomalously warm tropical western Pacific in early March. The persisting strong WWB forced downwelling Kelvin wave-like oceanic perturbation that propagated eastward and led to the onset of the 2015-16 El Niño. The proposed novel extratropical forcing mechanism explaining the unique extratropics-MJO-El Niño association, based on both data diagnostics and numerical experiments, warrants further attention for a more detailed understanding of the onset of the MJO and its potential effect on El Niño.

  16. Post Cyclone (PoC) : An innovative way to reduce the emission of fines from industrial cyclones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ray - Bhowmick, Madhumita; Luning, P.E.; Hoffmann, A.C; Plomp, A.; Beumer, M.I.L.

    A novel approach for reducing the emission of industrial-scale cyclones of particles smaller than 10 mu m is presented. Utilizing the strong swirl already present in the vortex finder of a conventional cyclone, the escaped dust from the cyclone is collected in a so-called ''Post Cyclone'' (PoC),

  17. Baroclinic flows, transports, and kinematic properties in a cyclonic-anticyclonic-cyclonic ring triad in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, VíCtor M. V.; Vidal, Francisco V.; HernáNdez, Abel F.; Meza, Eustorgio; PéRez-Molero, José M.

    1994-04-01

    During October-November 1986 the baroclinic circulation of the central and western Gulf of Mexico was dominated by an anticyclonic ring that was being bisected by two north and south flanking cyclonic rings. The baroclinic circulation revealed a well-defined cyclonic-anticyclonic-cyclonic triad system. The anticyclone's collision against the western gulf continental slope at 22.5°N, 97°W originated the north and south flanking cyclonic rings. The weakening of the anticyclone's relative vorticity, during the collision, was compensated by along-shelf north (26 cm s-1) and south (58 cm s-1) jet currents and by the anticyclone's flanking water mass's gain of cyclonic vorticity from lateral shear contributed by east (56 cm s-1) and west (42 cm s-1) current jets with individual mass transports of ˜18 Sv. Within the 0-1000 and 0-500 dbar layers and across 96°W the magnitudes of the colliding westward transports were 17.80 and 8.59 Sv, respectively. These corresponding transports were 85 and 94% balanced by along-shelf jet currents north and south of the anticyclone's collision zone. This indicates that only minor amounts (energy from the upper to the deeper water layers. Our vertical transport estimates through the 1000-m-depth surface revealed a net vertical descending transport of 0.4 Sv for the ring triad system. This mass flux occurred primordially within the south central gulf region and most likely constituted a principal mechanism that propelled the gulf's deep horizontal circulation. The volume renewal time is ˜5 years for the ring triad system within 0-1000 dbar. The volume renewal time for the gulf's deep water layer (2000-3000 dbar), estimated as a function of its horizontal outflowing mass flux (1.96 Sv), is of the same order of magnitude and reveals that the deeper layer of the Gulf of Mexico is as well ventilated as its upper layer (0-1000 dbar). The ring triad's surface kinematic properties were derived from the sea surface baroclinic circulation field

  18. 3D printing for cyclonic spray chambers in ICP spectrometry

    OpenAIRE

    Geertsen , Valérie; Barruet , Elodie; Tache , Olivier

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Additive manufacturing (AM) or 3D-printing is an increasingly widespread technique which is often described as a source for rapid prototyping whereas it is a manufacturing process in itself. It is a new tool for instrumental research laboratories which can now easily manufacture by themselves a large variety of devices. This article describes its application to ICP introduction system spray chambers. We undertake to print and study cyclone spray chambers by combining a...

  19. Assessment of Mediterranean cyclones in the multi-ensemble EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Victoria; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    The geographical location and characteristics of the Mediterranean basin make this a particularly active region in terms of cyclone forming and re-development (Trigo et al., 2002). The area is affected by moving depressions, most originated over the North Atlantic, which may later be forced by the orography surrounding the Mediterranean Sea and enhanced by the local source of moisture and heat fluxes over the Sea itself. The present work analyses the response of Mediterranean cyclones to climate change by means of 7 ensemble members of EC-EARTH model from CMIP5 (Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). We restrict the analysis to a relatively small subset (7 members) of the total number of ensemble members available in order to take into account only the members present in the three selected experiments for robust detection of extra-tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean (Trigo, 2006). We have applied the standard procedure by comparing a common 25-year period of the historical (1980-2004), present day simulations, and the future climate simulations (2074-2098) forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The study area corresponds to the window between 10°W-42°E and 27°N-48°N. The analysis is performed with a focus in spatial distribution density and main characteristics of the overall cyclones for winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Despite the discrepancies in cyclone numbers when compared with the ERA Interim common period (reducing to only 72% in DJF and 78% in JJA), the ensemble average matches relatively well the main spatial patterns of areas. Results indicate that the ensemble average is characterized by a small decrease in winter (-3%) and a notable increase in summer (+10%) in total number of cyclones and that the individual ensemble members reveal small spread. Such tendency is particularly pronounced under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario being more moderated under the RCP4.5 scenario. Additionally, an assessment of changes in the annual cycle

  20. Transport timescales and tracer properties in the extratropical UTLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoor, P.; Wernli, H.; Hegglin, M. I.

    2010-05-01

    A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the Northern Hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the origin of air parcels and the main mechanisms determining characteristic structures in H2O and CO within the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last tropopause crossing (tTST) for the chemical structure of the LMS as well as the feature of the extra-tropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified from CO profiles. The distribution of H2O in the background LMS above Θ=320 K and 340 K in northern winter and summer, respectively, is found to be governed mainly by the saturation mixing ratio, which in turn is determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) encountered by each trajectory. Most of the backward trajectories from this region in the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics. The transit time since crossing the tropopause from the troposphere to the stratosphere (tTST) is independent of the H2O value of the air parcel. TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. CO, on the other hand, depends strongly on tTST due to its finite lifetime. The ExTL as identified from CO measurements is then explained as a layer of air just above the tropopause, which on average encountered TST fairly recently.

  1. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  2. Mound cyclone incinerator. Volume I. Description and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klingler, L.M.

    1981-01-01

    The Mound cyclone incinerator was developed to fill a need for a simple, relaible incinerator for volume reduction of dry solid waste contaminated with plutonium-238. Although the basic design of the incinerator is for batch burning of solid combustible waste, the incinerator has also been adapted to volume reduction of other waste forms. Specialized waste feeding equipment enables continuous burning of both solid and liquid waste, including full scintillation vials. Modifications to the incinerator offgas system enable burning of waste contaminated with isotopes other than plutonium-238. This document presents the design and performance characteristics of the Mound Cyclone Incinerator for incineration of both solid and liquid waste. Suggestions are included for adaptation of the incinerator to specialized waste materials

  3. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  4. Cyclone oil shale retorting concept. [Use it all retorting process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harak, A.E.; Little, W.E.; Faulders, C.R.

    1984-04-01

    A new concept for above-ground retorting of oil shale was disclosed by A.E. Harak in US Patent No. 4,340,463, dated July 20, 1982, and assigned to the US Department of Energy. This patent titled System for Utilizing Oil Shale Fines, describes a process wherein oil shale fines of one-half inch diameter and less are pyrolyzed in an entrained-flow reactor using hot gas from a cyclone combustor. Spent shale and supplemental fuel are burned at slagging conditions in this combustor. Because of fines utilization, the designation Use It All Retorting Process (UIARP) has been adopted. A preliminary process engineering design of the UIARP, analytical tests on six samples of raw oil shale, and a preliminary technical and economic evaluation of the process were performed. The results of these investigations are summarized in this report. The patent description is included. It was concluded that such changes as deleting air preheating in the slag quench and replacing the condenser with a quench-oil scrubber are recognized as being essential. The addition of an entrained flow raw shale preheater ahead of the cyclone retort is probably required, but final acceptance is felt to be contingent on some verification that adequate reaction time cannot be obtained with only the cyclone, or possibly some other twin-cyclone configuration. Sufficient raw shale preheating could probably be done more simply in another manner, perhaps in a screw conveyor shale transporting system. Results of the technical and economic evaluations of Jacobs Engineering indicate that further investigation of the UIARP is definitely worthwhile. The projected capital and operating costs are competitive with costs of other processes as long as electric power generation and sales are part of the processing facility.

  5. Initial Evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-06

    tropical cyclones and wintertime cold fronts and extratropical cyclones. These events have much greater impact on the circulation and mixing of the...of Campeche (19-22 August 2011) was considered as a possible link; however, this possibility was ruled out since the storm passed more than a week... storm surge events (D’Sa et al., 2011). Fig. 18 shows four snapshots of the oil spill evolution simulated by the Lagrangian model for 20 June, 25 June, 30

  6. Sources of Wind Variability at a Single Station in Complex Terrain During Tropical Cyclone Passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Mesoscale Prediction System CPA Closest point of approach ET Extratropical transition FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center...forecasts. However, 2 the TC forecast tracks and warnings they issue necessarily focus on the large-scale structure of the storm , and are not...winds at one station. Also, this technique is a storm - centered forecast and even if the grid spacing is on order of one kilometer, it is unlikely

  7. Cyclone Simulation via Action Minimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotkin, D. A.; Weare, J.; Abbot, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    A postulated impact of climate change is an increase in intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This hypothesized effect results from the fact that TCs are powered subsaturated boundary layer air picking up water vapor from the surface ocean as it flows inwards towards the eye. This water vapor serves as the energy input for TCs, which can be idealized as heat engines. The inflowing air has a nearly identical temperature as the surface ocean; therefore, warming of the surface leads to a warmer atmospheric boundary layer. By the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, warmer boundary layer air can hold more water vapor and thus results in more energetic storms. Changes in TC intensity are difficult to predict due to the presence of fine structures (e.g. convective structures and rainbands) with length scales of less than 1 km, while general circulation models (GCMs) generally have horizontal resolutions of tens of kilometers. The models are therefore unable to capture these features, which are critical to accurately simulating cyclone structure and intensity. Further, strong TCs are rare events, meaning that long multi-decadal simulations are necessary to generate meaningful statistics about intense TC activity. This adds to the computational expense, making it yet more difficult to generate accurate statistics about long-term changes in TC intensity due to global warming via direct simulation. We take an alternative approach, applying action minimization techniques developed in molecular dynamics to the WRF weather/climate model. We construct artificial model trajectories that lead from quiescent (TC-free) states to TC states, then minimize the deviation of these trajectories from true model dynamics. We can thus create Monte Carlo model ensembles that are biased towards cyclogenesis, which reduces computational expense by limiting time spent in non-TC states. This allows for: 1) selective interrogation of model states with TCs; 2) finding the likeliest paths for

  8. Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

    2016-01-01

    As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars

  9. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

  10. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  11. The Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Bilis (2000) Associated with Cross-equatorial Surges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Yamei

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropical cyclone Bilis (2000) was selected as the case to study. The research data used are from the results of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5), which has successfully simulated the transformation of a pre-existing weak large-scale tropical depression into a strong tropical storm. The scale separation technique is used to separate the synoptic-scale and sub-synoptic-scale fields from the model output fields. The scale-separated fields show that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression and the subsynoptic scale tropical cyclone formed later were different scale systems from beginning to end. It is also shown that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression did not contract to become the tropical cyclone. A series of weak, sub-synoptic-scale low and high pressure systems appeared and disappeared in the synopticscale depression, with one of the low systems near the center of the synoptic-scale depression having deepened to become the tropical cyclone. The roles of the synoptic-scale flow and the sub-synoptic scale disturbances in the formation of the tropical cyclone are investigated by diagnoses of the scale-separated vertical vorticity equation. The results show that the early development of the sub-synoptic scale vortex was fundamentally dependent on the strengthening synoptic-scale environmental depression. The depression was strengthened by cross-equatorial surges, which increased the convergence of the synoptic-scale depression at low levels and triggered the formation of the tropical cyclone.

  12. Multi-Scale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Reinecke, A.; Amerault, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) may be sensitive to aspects of large-scale forcing, as well as internal mesoscale dynamics. In this presentation, the degree to which tropical cyclone intensity and structure is sensitive to small perturbations to the basic properties of the synoptic-scale environment, as well as in the immediate vicinity of the storm, is explored using both adjoint- and ensemble-based approaches. In particular, we explore the relationship between tropical cyclone intensity changes and upper-level outflow. We make use of observations from two recent field campaigns: i) the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3), which featured two fully instrumented Global Hawk unmanned aerial systems, and ii) the ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-14) experiment that utilized the NASA WB-57. We make use of the Navy's high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system COAMPS-TC to provide ensemble forecasts, numerical experiments with and without the assimilation of specific observation types (e.g., satellite, dropsondes, high-frequency radiosonde), as well as mesoscale nested adjoint sensitivity and observation impact calculations, all of which provide insight into the initial state sensitivity and predictability issues. We assess the impact of observations in sensitive regions in the TC environment (including outflow regions away from the TC inner core) on predictions of TC intensity and structure. Overall the results underscore the importance of multiple scales that influence the predictability of TC intensification. During HS3, the assimilation of Global Hawk dropsondes has been shown to reduce the maximum wind error from 15 knots to less than 10 knots at 48 h for Hurricane Nadine (2012). In this particular case, the adjoint model shows strong sensitivity in the TC outflow near the entrance region of an upper-level jet. The impact of dropsondes from data denial experiments and adjoint-based observation impact calculations will be

  13. Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983-2008: observational support for a poleward shift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, Frida A.M.; Ramanathan, V. [University of California, Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Tselioudis, George [Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

  14. Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

    2012-01-01

    Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

  15. Effect of tropical cyclones on the stratosphere–troposphere exchange observed using satellite observations over the north Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Venkat Ratnam

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the north Indian Ocean during 2007–2013 on the STE processes is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO measurements, and ozone and water vapour concentrations in the UTLS region are obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km of the centre of the tropical cyclone. In our earlier study, we observed a decrease (increase in the tropopause altitude (temperature up to 0.6 km (3 K, and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL thickness of 3 km within 500 km of the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from the cyclone centre, whereas the enhancement in the water vapour in the lower stratosphere is more significant on the south-east side, extending from 500 to 1000 km away from the cyclone centre. The cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones is estimated and it is found that the mean flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere for cyclonic storms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10−3 kg m−2, and for very severe cyclonic storms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10−3 kg m−2. More downward flux is noticed on the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget, and

  16. On the movement of tropical cyclone LEHAR

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-11-09

    In this paper, an attempt has been made to delineate the physical processes which lead to the westward movement of the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone LEHAR. The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model is used to simulate LEHAR with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The results indicate that the model performed well in simulating the characteristics of cyclone compared with the Satellite and other observations. In addition to that all terms of the complete vorticity equation are computed to obtain the contribution of each term for the vorticity tendency. The vorticity tendency is calculated in four sectors, namely northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast and assumed that the cyclone moves from its existing location to the nearest point where the vortices tendency is maximum. It is noticed that the vorticity stretching term contributes most to the positive vorticity tendency. The second highest contribution is from the horizontal advection thus indicating the secondary importance of steering. The distribution of lightening flash rates also showing that the flash rates are higher in the SW and followed by NW sectors of the cyclone indicate more strong convective clouds are in SW sector. The equivalent potential temperatures (θe) at different stages of before, during and after the mature stage of the cyclone are also analysed and the analysis reveals that the wind-induced surface heat (WISH) exchange process is a plausible mechanism for the intensification of LEHAR.

  17. On the movement of tropical cyclone LEHAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasari, Hari Prasad; V, Brahmananda Rao; SSVS, Ramakrishna; Gunta, Paparao; N, Nanaji Rao; P, Ramesh Kumar

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, an attempt has been made to delineate the physical processes which lead to the westward movement of the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone LEHAR. The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model is used to simulate LEHAR with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The results indicate that the model performed well in simulating the characteristics of cyclone compared with the Satellite and other observations. In addition to that all terms of the complete vorticity equation are computed to obtain the contribution of each term for the vorticity tendency. The vorticity tendency is calculated in four sectors, namely northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast and assumed that the cyclone moves from its existing location to the nearest point where the vortices tendency is maximum. It is noticed that the vorticity stretching term contributes most to the positive vorticity tendency. The second highest contribution is from the horizontal advection thus indicating the secondary importance of steering. The distribution of lightening flash rates also showing that the flash rates are higher in the SW and followed by NW sectors of the cyclone indicate more strong convective clouds are in SW sector. The equivalent potential temperatures ( θ e) at different stages of before, during and after the mature stage of the cyclone are also analysed and the analysis reveals that the wind-induced surface heat (WISH) exchange process is a plausible mechanism for the intensification of LEHAR.

  18. On the movement of tropical cyclone LEHAR

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad; V, Brahmananda Rao; SSVS, Ramakrishna; Gunta, Paparao; N, Nanaji Rao; P, Ramesh Kumar

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, an attempt has been made to delineate the physical processes which lead to the westward movement of the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone LEHAR. The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model is used to simulate LEHAR with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The results indicate that the model performed well in simulating the characteristics of cyclone compared with the Satellite and other observations. In addition to that all terms of the complete vorticity equation are computed to obtain the contribution of each term for the vorticity tendency. The vorticity tendency is calculated in four sectors, namely northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast and assumed that the cyclone moves from its existing location to the nearest point where the vortices tendency is maximum. It is noticed that the vorticity stretching term contributes most to the positive vorticity tendency. The second highest contribution is from the horizontal advection thus indicating the secondary importance of steering. The distribution of lightening flash rates also showing that the flash rates are higher in the SW and followed by NW sectors of the cyclone indicate more strong convective clouds are in SW sector. The equivalent potential temperatures (θe) at different stages of before, during and after the mature stage of the cyclone are also analysed and the analysis reveals that the wind-induced surface heat (WISH) exchange process is a plausible mechanism for the intensification of LEHAR.

  19. The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

    2018-01-01

    Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

  20. Quantitative observations on tropical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, James P.; Gienko, Gennady

    2018-03-01

    The Arabian Sea basin represents a minor component of global total cyclones annually and has not featured so prominently in cyclone research compared with other basins where greater numbers of cyclones are registered each year. This paper presents the results of exploratory analysis of various features of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea, with a particular focus on examining their temporal and spatial patterns. Track morphometry also reveals further information on track shape. The study indicates how cyclones spawned during May in the early pre-monsoon period (often strong events) have a tendency to follow more sinuous tracks, whereas cyclones occurring in October in the post-monsoon period tend to follow straighter tracks. Track sinuosity is significantly related to other attributes, including cyclone longevity and intensity. Comparisons are also drawn between the general characteristics of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea and other ocean basins, suggesting how the size and geography of the Arabian Sea basin exert influences on these characteristics.

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Western Pacific Basin Cyclone Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tropical cyclones are one of the nature?s destructive phenomena, causing loss of lives and property damage. The affected countries associated with the cyclones of...

  2. A Probabilistic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wallace, Kenneth A

    2008-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) are set at DoD installations in the Western Pacific to convey the risk associated with the onset of destructive winds from approaching tropical cyclones...

  3. A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

    1999-01-01

    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

  4. Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C. A.

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

  5. On the dynamics of synoptic scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocas, Helena; Katavoutas, George; Tsanis, Ioannis; Iordanidou, Vasiliki

    2015-04-01

    Flood events in the Mediterranean are frequently linked to synoptic scale cyclones, although topographical or anthropogenic factors can play important role. The knowledge of the vertical profile and dynamics of these cyclones can serve as a reliable early flood warning system that can further help in hazard mitigation and risk management planning. Crete is the second largest island in the eastern Mediterranean region, being characterized by high precipitation amounts during winter, frequently causing flood events. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms at the upper and lower levels responsible for the generation of these events, according to their origin domain. The flooding events were recorded for a period of almost 20 years. The surface cyclones are identified with the aid of MS scheme that was appropriately modified and extensively employed in the Mediterranean region in previous studies. Then, the software VTS, specially developed for the Mediterranean cyclones, was employed to investigate the vertical extension, slope and dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the surface cyclones. Composite maps of dynamic/thermodynamic parameters, such as potential vorticity, temperature advection, divergence, surface fluxes were then constructed before and during the time of the flood. The dataset includes 6-hourly surface and isobaric analyses on a 0.5° x 0.5° regular latitude-longitude grid, as derived from the ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis of the ECMWF. It was found that cyclones associated with flood events in Crete mainly generate over northern Africa or southern eastern Mediterranean region and experience their minimum pressure over Crete or southwestern Greece. About 84% of the cyclones extend up to 500hPa, demonstrating that they are well vertically well-organized systems. The vast majority (almost 84%) of the surface cyclones attains their minimum pressure when their 500 hpa counterparts are located in the NW or SW, confirming

  6. Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

    2015-12-01

    An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

  7. Performance and Characteristics of a Cyclone Gasifier for Gasification of Sawdust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman Miskam, Muhamad; Zainal, Z. A.; Idroas, M. Y.

    The performance and characteristics of a cyclone gasifier for gasification of sawdust has been studied and evaluated. The system applied a technique to gasify sawdust through the concept of cyclonic motion driven by air injected at atmospheric pressure. This study covers the results obtained for gasification of ground sawdust from local furniture industries with size distribution ranging from 0.25 to 1 mm. It was found that the typical wall temperature for initiating stable gasification process was about 400°C. The heating value of producer gas was about 3.9 MJ m-3 that is sufficient for stable combustion in a dual-fuel engine generator. The highest thermal output from the cyclone gasifier was 57.35 kWT. The highest value of mass conversion efficiency and enthalpy balance were 60 and 98.7%, respectively. The highest efficiency of the cyclone gasifier obtained was 73.4% and this compares well with other researchers. The study has identified the optimum operational condition for gasifying sawdust in a cyclone gasifier and made conclusions as to how the steady gasification process can be achieved.

  8. Parameters determining maximum wind velocity in a tropical cyclone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, A.M.

    1984-09-01

    The spiral structure of a tropical cyclone was earlier explained by a tangential velocity distribution which varies inversely as the distance from the cyclone centre outside the circle of maximum wind speed. The case has been extended in the present paper by adding a radial velocity. It has been found that a suitable combination of radial and tangential velocities can account for the spiral structure of a cyclone. This enables parametrization of the cyclone. Finally a formula has been derived relating maximum velocity in a tropical cyclone with angular momentum, radius of maximum wind speed and the spiral angle. The shapes of the spirals have been computed for various spiral angles. (author)

  9. CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Eickhout, B.; Hoogwijk, M.; Strengers, B.; Vuuren, van D.J.; Leemans, R.; Opsteegh, T.

    2006-01-01

    We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass

  10. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

    2014-01-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have

  11. Coal reburning technology for cyclone boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagiela, A.S.; Maringo, G.J.; Newell, R.J.; Farzan, H.

    1990-01-01

    Babcock and Wilcox has obtained encouraging results from engineering feasibility and pilot-scale proof-of-concept studies of coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO x control. Accordingly, B and W completed negotiations for a clean coal cooperative agreement with the Department of Energy to demonstrate coal reburning technology for cyclone boilers. The host site for the demonstration is the Wisconsin Power and Light (WP and L) Company's 100MWe Nelson Dewey Station. Reburning involves the injection of a supplemental fuel (natural gas, oil, or coal) into the main furnace to produce locally reducing stoichiometric conditions which convert the NO x produced therein to molecular nitrogen, thereby reducing overall NO x emissions. There are currently no commercially-demonstrated combustion modification techniques for cyclone boilers which reduce NO x emissions. The emerging reburning technology offers cyclone boiler operators a promising alternative to expensive flue gas cleanup techniques for NO x emission reduction. This paper reviews baseline testing results at the Nelson Dewey Station and pilot-scale results simulating Nelson Dewey operation using pulverized coal (PC) as the reburning fuel. Outcomes of the model studies as well as the full-scale demonstration preliminary design are discussed

  12. Nuclear power plant risk from tropical cyclones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilmore, T.F.

    1991-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are considered to have a potential for contributing to the overall core-melt frequency at Turkey Point. A tropical cyclone is known to have the four main hazards associated with it: wind, tidal surge, wind-generated missiles, and precipitation. To understand the contribution to overall core-melt risk at Turkey Point, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of these hazards and their relative importance. The results are bounded by the hurricane surge scenario, where the frequency of core melt is equal to the frequency of the surge reaching 19 ft NGVD (National Geographic Vertical Datum). This could be mitigated by potential recovery actions for the tropical cyclone scenario. The probability of the storm surge reaching 19 ft NVGD is estimated to be 1 x 10 -4 . The data associated with the tropical cyclones as discussed in detail in the body of this paper are lacking in quantity and quality. By taking the conservative approach in creating the wind/frequency, wind/surge, and surge/frequency relationships, the conclusion that the results are worst case is reasonable. With this in mind, it is logical to conclude that the value of further hazard analysis to narrow down the built-in conservative margin using the existing data and technology is doubtful. Thus, a recovery approach to driving the risk level down is the most pragmatic step to be taken

  13. An economic assessment of tropical cyclone risk on offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Lixuan; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    and cost and setting design parameters for offshore wind turbines are then discussed. The impact of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms likes a double-edged sword, which might be advantageous for some regions in terms of increasing full-loaded hours of turbines, but also disadvantageous for others due....... A probabilistic tropical cyclone event model is applied to evaluate 20-year, 30-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence of extreme wind speeds by geographical location. Combining a damage model derived from empirical loss data and an investment cost model within a Geographical Information System (GIS), the annual...... to its destructive effects. However, specific design standards and insurance of turbines would help reduce risks and economic losses of offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone areas and expand exploitable locations for future offshore wind farms....

  14. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, T.G.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

  15. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

  16. Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Halverson, Jeff; Simpson, Joanne; Olson, William; Pierce, Harold

    1999-01-01

    Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

  17. Amplified melt and flow of the Greenland ice sheet driven by late-summer cyclonic rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doyle, Samuel H.; Hubbard, Alun; van de Wal, Roderik S.W.

    2015-01-01

    and meteorological variables from the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet during a week of warm, wet cyclonic weather in late August and early September 2011. We find that extreme surface runoff from melt and rainfall led to a widespread acceleration in ice flow that extended 140 km into the ice-sheet interior....... We suggest that the late-season timing was critical in promoting rapid runoff across an extensive bare ice surface that overwhelmed a subglacial hydrological system in transition to a less-efficient winter mode. Reanalysis data reveal that similar cyclonic weather conditions prevailed across southern...

  18. Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Widmann

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past.

    Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

  19. The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2018-04-01

    Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

  20. The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

  1. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  2. Observations of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves forced by Extratropical Wave Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiladis, G. N.; Biello, J. A.; Straub, K. H.

    2012-12-01

    It is well established by observations that deep tropical convection can in certain situations be forced by extratropical Rossby wave activity. Such interactions are a well-known feature of regions of upper level westerly flow, and in particular where westerlies and equatorward wave guiding by the basic state occur at low enough latitudes to interact with tropical and subtropical moisture sources. In these regions convection is commonly initiated ahead of upper level troughs, characteristic of forcing by quasi-geostrophic dynamics. However, recent observational evidence indicates that extratropical wave activity is also associated with equatorial convection even in regions where there is a "critical line" to Rossby wave propagation at upper levels, that is, where the zonal phase speed of the wave is equal to the zonal flow speed. A common manifestation of this type of interaction involves the initiation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves, as well as mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves. These waves are responsible for a large portion of the convective variability within the ITCZ over the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic sectors, as well as within the Amazon Basin of South America. For example, Kelvin waves originating within the western Pacific ITCZ are often triggered by Rossby wave activity propagating into the Australasian region from the South Indian Ocean extratropics. At other times, Kelvin waves are seen to originate along the eastern slope of the Andes. In the latter case the initial forcing is sometimes linked to a low-level "pressure surge," initiated by wave activity propagating equatorward from the South Pacific storm track. In yet other cases, such as over Africa, the forcing appears to be related to wave activity in the extratropics which is not necessarily propagating into low latitudes, but appears to "project" onto the Kelvin structure, in line with past theoretical and modeling studies. Observational evidence for extratropical forcing of Kelvin and MRG

  3. Load and unload system optimization on H218 O irradiation target used for 18F- production at the cyclotron cyclone 30 from IPEN-CNEN/SP, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Osvaldo Luiz da

    2009-01-01

    The demand growing in Brazil by the radiopharmaceutical [ 18 F] FDG in positron emission tomography (PET-CT) and the 109,7 minutes half life claim special attention to the productive chain of this radiopharmaceutical. Since the [ 18 O]water irradiation until the tomograph patient scanning, in sequential procedures that may spent about six hours, all the productive chain stages must be as reliable as possible, because any stage failed will be perceived in productive chain extremity. The position indication absence from Load and Unload 18 F - Target System valve in Cyclotron Accelerators Center resulted in 18 F - production loss, Irradiation Room contamination and the increase workers dose responsible by operation and maintenance of irradiation systems. This study tested the behaviour of three types of position sensors (micro switch, reed switch and inductive sensor), into Irradiation Room 1.2 environment of the Cyclotron Accelerators Center, where there are high gamma radiation and neutrons rates because the routine 18 F - and 123 I production, through this test was possible to discover the fitter position sensor to run on 18 F - Target, and after rewriting the programmable logic controller software was possible avoid this type of fail at 18 F - production time in Cyclotron Accelerators Center, and to grow up the reliability on [ 18 F]FDG productive chain. (author)

  4. Load unload system optimization on H218O irradiation target used for 18F- production at the cyclotron cyclone 30 from IPEN-CNEN/SP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Osvaldo Luiz da

    2009-01-01

    The demand growing in Brazil by the radiopharmaceutical [ 18 F]FDG in positron emission tomography (PET-CT) and the 109,7 minutes half life claim special attention to the productive chain of this radiopharmaceutical. Since the [ 18 O]water irradiation until the tomograph patient scanning, in sequential procedures that may spent about six hours, all the productive chain stages must be as reliable as possible, because any stage failed will be perceived in productive chain extremity. The position indication absence from Load and Unload 18 F- Target System valve in Cyclotron Accelerators Center resulted in 18 F- production loss, Irradiation Room contamination and the increase workers' dose responsible by operation and maintenance of irradiation systems. This study tested the behaviour of three types of position sensors (micro switch, reed switch and inductive sensor), into Irradiation Room 1.2 environment of the Cyclotron Accelerators Center, where there are high gamma radiation and neutrons rates because the routine 18 F- and 1 '2 3 I production, through this test was possible to discover the fitter position sensor to run on 18 F- Target, and after rewriting the programmable logic controller software was possible avoid this type of fail at 18 F- production time in Cyclotron Accelerators Center, and to grow up the reliability on [ 18 F]FDG productive chain. (author)

  5. Probability Distributions for Cyclone Key Parameters and Cyclonic Wind Speed for the East Coast of Indian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradeep K. Goyal

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study conducted on the probabilistic distribution of key cyclone parameters and the cyclonic wind speed by analyzing the cyclone track records obtained from India meteorological department for east coast region of India. The dataset of historical landfalling storm tracks in India from 1975–2007 with latitude /longitude and landfall locations are used to map the cyclone tracks in a region of study. The statistical tests were performed to find a best fit distribution to the track data for each cyclone parameter. These parameters include central pressure difference, the radius of maximum wind speed, the translation velocity, track angle with site and are used to generate digital simulated cyclones using wind field simulation techniques. For this, different sets of values for all the cyclone key parameters are generated randomly from their probability distributions. Using these simulated values of the cyclone key parameters, the distribution of wind velocity at a particular site is obtained. The same distribution of wind velocity at the site is also obtained from actual track records and using the distributions of the cyclone key parameters as published in the literature. The simulated distribution is compared with the wind speed distributions obtained from actual track records. The findings are useful in cyclone disaster mitigation.

  6. Paradigms for Tropical-Cyclone Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Hurricane Opal (1995) using the Geo- physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane prediction model, Möller and Shapiro (2002) found unbalanced flow...al. (2008) calculations on an f -plane, described in section 6.1. A specific aim was to deter- mine the separate contributions of diabatic heating and... Opal as diagnosed from a GFDL model forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1866-1881. Marks FD Shay LK. 1998: Landfalling tropical cyclones: Forecast

  7. On Steady-State Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Press: London. Marks FD, Black PG, Montgomery MT, Burpee RW. 2008. Structure of the eye and eyewall of Hurricane Hugo (1989). Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 1237... hurricanes ; tropical cyclones; typhoons; steady-state Received 18 April 2013; Revised 25 November 2013; Accepted 29 December 2013; Published online in Wiley...the concept of the ‘mature stage’ of a hurricane vortex. The definition of the ‘mature stage’ is commonly based on the time period in which the maximum

  8. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Structure Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    cyclone outer wind structure on the beta-effect propagation ( BEP ) component of stormmotion. Employing a non-divergent barotropic model, they demonstrated...that even when the BEP remained unchanged the inner (within 300 km in their vortex simulation) wind profiles had intensity variations from 20 m s−1 to...50 m s−1. Conversely, BEP changed significantly with corresponding intensity changes in the outer (beyond 300 km) wind 2 profiles. For example, larger

  9. A Numerical Simulation of Extratropical Storm Surge and Hydrodynamic Response in the Bohai Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Yumei; Ding, Lei

    2014-01-01

    A hindcast of typical extratropical storm surge occurring in the Bohai Sea in October 2003 is performed using a three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge model is forced by 10 m winds obtained from the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. It is shown that the simulated storm surge and tides agree well with the observations. The nonlinear interaction between the surge and astronomical tides, the spatial distribution of the max...

  10. Climatological properties of summertime extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere

    OpenAIRE

    Dos Santos Mesquita, Michel; Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Atkinson, David E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents climatological properties of Northern Hemisphere summer extratropical storm tracks using data extracted from an existing, relative-vorticity-based storm database. This database was constructed using the NCEPNCAR ‘Reanalysis I’ data set from 1948 to 2002. Results contrasting summer and winter patterns for several storm parameters indicated general similarity at the largest scales, including the prominent track corridors of the middle latitude ocean regions and the mid-conti...

  11. How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, Anand; Emanuel, Kerry; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Anderson, Whit G.; Hallberg, Robert

    2010-09-01

    Because ocean color alters the absorption of sunlight, it can produce changes in sea surface temperatures with further impacts on atmospheric circulation. These changes can project onto fields previously recognized to alter the distribution of tropical cyclones. If the North Pacific subtropical gyre contained no absorbing and scattering materials, the result would be to reduce subtropical cyclone activity in the subtropical Northwest Pacific by 2/3, while concentrating cyclone tracks along the equator. Predicting tropical cyclone activity using coupled models may thus require consideration of the details of how heat moves into the upper thermocline as well as biogeochemical cycling.

  12. Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of, and lessons from, the 1991 April cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, C. Emdad

    1995-09-01

    Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying, monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design.

  13. Tropical cyclone statistics in the Northeastern Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero-Vadillo, E. [Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur (UABCS), La Paz, Baja California Sur (Mexico); Zaytsev, O. [Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, La Paz, Baja California Sur (Mexico)]. E-mail: ozaytsev@ipn.mx; Morales-Perez, R. [Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua (IMTA), Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2007-04-15

    The principal area of tropical cyclogenesis in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean is offshore in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between 8 and 15 degrees Celsius N, and most of these cyclones move towards the west and northwest during their initial phase. Historical analysis of tropical cyclone data in the Northeastern (NE) Pacific over the last 38 years (from 1966 to 2004) shows a mean of 16.3 tropical cyclones per year, consisting of 8.8 hurricanes 198 and 7.4 tropical storms. The analysis shows great geographical variability of cyclone tracks, and that there were a considerable number of hurricane strikes along the Mexican coast. About 50% of the tropical cyclones formed turned north to northeast. It was rare that any passed further north than 30 degrees Celsius N in latitude because of the cold California Current. Hurricane tracks that affected the NE Pacific may be separated into 5 groups. We compared the historical record of the sea surface temperature (SST), related with the El Nino events with a data set of tropical cyclones, including frequency, intensity, trajectory, and duration. Although the statistical dependence between the frequencies of tropical cyclones of the most abundant categories, 1 and 2, over this region and SST data was not convincing, the percentage of high intensity hurricanes and hurricanes with a long life-time (greater than 12 days) was more during El Nino years than in non-El Nino years. [Spanish] La principal region de la formacion de ciclones en el oceano Pacifico Este es el Golfo de Tehuantepec, entre los 8 y los 15 grados Celsius N. En su fase inicial los ciclones se mueven hacia el oeste y el noroeste. El analisis historico de los ciclones que se han generado durante los ultimos 38 anos (de 1966 a 2004) muestra un promedio de 16.2 ciclones por ano, consistentes en 8.8 huracanes y 7.4 tormentas tropicales. El analisis muestra una gran variabilidad geografica en la trayectoria de los ciclones, de los cuales un gran numero impacta las

  14. Life defence against big storm surges. Cyclone shelter in Bangladesh; Kyodai takashio kara seimei wo mamoru. Bangladesh no cyclone shelter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakagawa, H. [Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Disaster Prevention Research Inst.

    1996-08-15

    This paper presents the cyclone shelters in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been damaged by flooding due to big storm surges caused by cyclone every year, losing many human lives and properties. The sea within 100km apart from the coast is gradually shoaling beach shallower than 10m because of sediment transport by the Ganges. Consequently, huge storm surges are easily caused by cyclone generated in Bay of Bengal. The cyclone shelter is only one refuge from cyclone. Construction of the cyclone shelters was opened in the 1960s, and the public work department (PWD) in the government had constructed the cyclone shelters under support by International Development Association (IDA) since 1970. At the same time, BDRCS had constructed the shelters under support by Red Cross Societies of every country, and positive NGOs such as Caritas had been also in the same action. Because many cyclone shelters became too old for use, construction of new cyclone shelters was opened again just after disaster in 1991. 2 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Multidecadal change of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean associated with AMO and PDO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Nikolaevna Maslova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to analysis of the cold half-year (October to March frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with the global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Firstly, climatic conditions in the North Atlantic-European region during positive and negative phases of these global oscillations were shown using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1948 - 2016 and data of the NASA GISS Atlas of Exratropical Strom Tracks in 1961 - 1998. Mean monthly values / anomalies (composites for equal periods of the negative and positive AMO and PDO phases were calculated and compared. The results of the study support the idea that the Pacific and Atlantic influence on the climatic (multidecadal scale is realized via change of the large-scale fields of the North Atlantic anomalies typical for the interannual scale. Then spatial distribution of the frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region was obtained using global NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets on 1000 hPa geopotential height in 1948 - 2013. It was shown that during the positive AMO phase, frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean was higher by absolute values in November to March over the Tyrrhenian and Ionic Seas and lower over the Anatolian peninsula. During the negative PDO phase, frequency of cyclones over the Anatolian peninsula in January to March is significantly higher than in the positive PDO phase.

  16. DMS cyclone separation processes for optimization of plastic wastes recycling and their implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Malcolm Richard; Menendez, Mario; Toraño, Javier; Torno, Susana

    2011-06-01

    It is demonstrated that substantial reductions in plastics presently disposed of in landfills can be achieved by cyclone density media separation (DMS). In comparison with the size fraction of plastics presently processed by industrial density separations (generally 6.4 to 9.5 mm), cyclone DMS methods are demonstrated to effectively process a substantially greater range of particle sizes (from 0.5 up to 120 mm). The purities of plastic products and recoveries obtained with a single stage separation using a cylindrical cyclone are shown to attain virtually 100% purity and recoveries >99% for high-density fractions and >98% purity and recoveries were obtained for low-density products. Four alternative schemas of multi-stage separations are presented and analyzed as proposed methods to obtain total low- and high-density plastics fraction recoveries while maintaining near 100% purities. The results of preliminary tests of two of these show that the potential for processing product purities and recoveries >99.98% of both density fractions are indicated. A preliminary economic comparison of capital costs of DMS systems suggests cyclone DMS methods to be comparable with other DMS processes even if the high volume capacity for recycling operations of these is not optimized.

  17. Impacts of category 5 tropical cyclone Fantala (April 2016) on Farquhar Atoll, Seychelles Islands, Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Volto, Natacha; Salmon, Camille

    2017-12-01

    This paper provides new insights on the impacts of a category 5 tropical cyclone on Indian Ocean atoll reef islands. Using multi-date aerial imagery and field observations, the contribution of tropical cyclone Fantala to shoreline and island change, and to sediment production and transport, was assessed on Farquhar Atoll, Seychelles Islands. Results show that the two largest islands (> 3 km2) only suffered limited land loss (- 1.19 to - 8.35%) while small islets lost 13.17 to 28.45% of their initial land area. Islands and islets exhibited contrasting responses depending on their location, topography and vegetation type. Depending on islands, the retreat of the vegetation line occurred either along all shorelines, or along ocean shoreline only. The structure (wooded vs. grassy) and origin (native vs. introduced) of the vegetation played a major role in island response. Five days after the cyclone, beach width and beach area were multiplied by 1.5 to 10, depending on the setting, and were interpreted as resulting from both sediment reworking and the supply of large amounts of fresh sediments by the reef outer slopes to the island system. Fourth months after the cyclone, extended sheets of loose sediments were still present on the reef flat and in inter-islet channels and shallow lagoon waters, indicating continuing sediment transfer to islands. As a reminder (see Section 3.1.4), beach width uncertainty equals to 6 m for all beach sections.

  18. 1990 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    land) - followed further loss of convective organization as system underwent increased vertical wind shear and loss of latent and sensible heat. III...FOLXTECHNICOF HONG KONG CIUDAD UNIVERSITARLA,M)XICO CML DEFENSE, BELAU CML DEFENSE, MAJURO CML DEFENSE, POHNPEI CML DEFENSE, SAIPAN CML DEFENSE, TRUK

  19. Annual Tropical Cyclone Report 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-24

    Ann Schrader, Mr. Mike Frost, and Mr. Chris Sisko for their outstanding support and continued development of the ATCF system. 5 JTWC Personnel...AG2 Ethan Wright AGAA Kristin Terrell AGAA Tyler Terrell AGAN Vaughan Dill 6 Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

  20. Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

  1. Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

    2015-04-01

    The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

  2. Ocean-atmosphere interactions during cyclone Nargis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mc; Foltz, G.R.; Lee, T.; Murty, V.S.N.; Ravichandran, M.; Vecchi, G.A.; Vialard, J.; Wiggert, J.D.; Yu, L.

    =UTF-8 Author version: EOS: Trans. Am. Geophys. Union: 90(7); 2009; 53-60; doi:10.1029/2009EO070001 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis M. J. McPhaden (1) , G. R. Foltz (2) , T. Lee (3) , V. S. N. Murty (4) , M... Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction; McPhaden et al, 2008) designed to complement a constellation of earth observing satellites for key environmental parameters such as winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea...

  3. Economics of oversized cyclones in the cotton ginning industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cost of reducing pollution to meet increasingly stringent air quality standards particularly for the U.S. cotton ginning industry is rising overtime. Most industry participants use cyclones to control air pollutants. These cyclones have no moving parts and their initial investment costs are relative...

  4. Cyclone resilient landscape : the case of Vatomandry, Madagascar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, E.; Hornman, R.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world, has to deal with cyclones every year. The impact of a cyclone can be devastating, leaving areas with houses damaged, floods and damaged crops. The aftermath has an even greater impact.The floods increase the number of people affected

  5. Tropical cyclones over NIO during La-Nina Modoki years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sumesh, K.G.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    Tropical cyclones over NIO (North Indian Ocean) are highly influenced by the El-Nino and La-Nina activities over the Pacific Ocean Influences of air-sea interaction processes like El-Nino Modoki and La-Nina Modoki on tropical cyclones are less...

  6. Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones ...

  7. Some Features of Aerodynamics of Cyclonic Chamber with Free Exit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Orekhov

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper cites results of an experimental research in aerodynamics of a cyclonic chamber with a free exit that has a large relative length. Distributions of aerodynamic stream characteristics depending on geometry of working volume of the cyclonic chamber are given in the paper. Calculative dependences are proposed in the paper.

  8. Preparation of rhodium target for cyclone-30 accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng Xuesong; Li Dakang; Xie Xiangqian; Li Chao

    2002-01-01

    The rhodium target for Cyclone-30 accelerator is prepared by pulse electroplating method. The effects of pulse parameters, rhodium concentration, acidity and temperature on the properties of the target layer are studied, and the optimal process is determined. The rhodium target, mass thickness is more than 150 mg/cm 2 , adapts to producing 103 Pd on Cyclone-30 accelerator

  9. Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  10. Cyclone: java-based querying and computing with Pathway/Genome databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Fèvre, François; Smidtas, Serge; Schächter, Vincent

    2007-05-15

    Cyclone aims at facilitating the use of BioCyc, a collection of Pathway/Genome Databases (PGDBs). Cyclone provides a fully extensible Java Object API to analyze and visualize these data. Cyclone can read and write PGDBs, and can write its own data in the CycloneML format. This format is automatically generated from the BioCyc ontology by Cyclone itself, ensuring continued compatibility. Cyclone objects can also be stored in a relational database CycloneDB. Queries can be written in SQL, and in an intuitive and concise object-oriented query language, Hibernate Query Language (HQL). In addition, Cyclone interfaces easily with Java software including the Eclipse IDE for HQL edition, the Jung API for graph algorithms or Cytoscape for graph visualization. Cyclone is freely available under an open source license at: http://sourceforge.net/projects/nemo-cyclone. For download and installation instructions, tutorials, use cases and examples, see http://nemo-cyclone.sourceforge.net.

  11. Modified diffusion with memory for cyclone track fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernido, Christopher C., E-mail: cbernido@mozcom.com [Research Center for Theoretical Physics, Central Visayan Institute Foundation, Jagna, Bohol 6308 (Philippines); Carpio-Bernido, M. Victoria [Research Center for Theoretical Physics, Central Visayan Institute Foundation, Jagna, Bohol 6308 (Philippines); Escobido, Matthew G.O. [W. Sycip Graduate School of Business, Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo de Roxas Ave., Makati City 1260 (Philippines)

    2014-06-13

    Fluctuations in a time series for tropical cyclone tracks are investigated based on an exponentially modified Brownian motion. The mean square displacement (MSD) is evaluated and compared to a recent work on cyclone tracks based on fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Unlike the work based on fBm, the present approach is found to capture the behavior of MSD versus time graphs for cyclones even for large values of time. - Highlights: • Cyclone track fluctuations are modeled as stochastic processes with memory. • Stochastic memory functions beyond fractional Brownian motion are introduced. • The model captures the behavior of cyclone track fluctuations for longer periods of time. • The approach can model time series for other fluctuating phenomena.

  12. Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

  13. Evaluation, engineering and development of advanced cyclone processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durney, T.E.; Cook, A. [Coal Technology Corporation, Bristol, VA (United States); Ferris, D.D. [ICF Kaiser Engineers, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)] [and others

    1995-11-01

    This research and development project is one of three seeking to develop advanced, cost-effective, coal cleaning processes to help industry comply with 1990 Clean Air Act Regulations. The specific goal for this project is to develop a cycloning technology that will beneficiate coal to a level approaching 85% pyritic sulfur rejection while retaining 85% of the parent coal`s heating value. A clean coal ash content of less than 6% and a moisture content, for both clean coal and reject, of less than 30% are targeted. The process under development is a physical, gravimetric-based cleaning system that removes ash bearing mineral matter and pyritic sulfur. Since a large portion of the Nation`s coal reserves contain significant amounts of pyrite, physical beneficiation is viewed as a potential near-term, cost effective means of producing an environmentally acceptable fuel.

  14. Evaluation, engineering and development of advanced cyclone processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durney, T.E.; Cook, A.; Ferris, D.D.

    1995-01-01

    This research and development project is one of three seeking to develop advanced, cost-effective, coal cleaning processes to help industry comply with 1990 Clean Air Act Regulations. The specific goal for this project is to develop a cycloning technology that will beneficiate coal to a level approaching 85% pyritic sulfur rejection while retaining 85% of the parent coal's heating value. A clean coal ash content of less than 6% and a moisture content, for both clean coal and reject, of less than 30% are targeted. The process under development is a physical, gravimetric-based cleaning system that removes ash bearing mineral matter and pyritic sulfur. Since a large portion of the Nation's coal reserves contain significant amounts of pyrite, physical beneficiation is viewed as a potential near-term, cost effective means of producing an environmentally acceptable fuel

  15. Coupling between the lower and middle atmosphere observed during a very severe cyclonic storm 'Madi'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hima Bindu, H.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Yesubabu, V.; Narayana Rao, T.; Eswariah, S.; Naidu, C. V.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2018-04-01

    Synoptic-scale systems like cyclones can generate broad spectrum of waves, which propagate from its source to the middle atmosphere. Coupling between the lower and middle atmosphere over Tirupati (13.6°N, 79.4°E) is studied during a very severe cyclonic storm 'Madi' (06-13 December 2013) using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model assimilated fields and simultaneous meteor radar observations. Since high temporal and spatial measurements are difficult to obtain during these disturbances, WRF model simulations are obtained by assimilating conventional and satellite observations using 3DVAR technique. The obtained outputs are validated for their consistency in predicting cyclone track and vertical structure by comparing them with independent observations. The good agreement between the assimilated outputs and independent observations prompted us to use the model outputs to investigate the gravity waves (GWs) and tides over Tirupati. GWs with the periods 1-5 h are observed with clear downward phase propagation in the lower stratosphere. These upward propagating waves obtained from the model are also noticed in the meteor radar horizontal wind observations in the MLT region (70-110 km). Interestingly, enhancement in the tidal activity in both the zonal and meridional winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region is noticed during the peak cyclonic activity except the suppression of semi-diurnal tide in meridional wind. A very good agreement in the tidal activity is also observed in the horizontal winds in the troposphere and lower stratosphere from the WRF model outputs and ERA5. These results thus provide evidence on the vertical coupling of lower and middle atmosphere induced by the tropical cyclone.

  16. Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Hackney, Christopher R; Leyland, Julian; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Parsons, Daniel R; Best, James L; Nicholas, Andrew P; Aalto, Rolf

    2016-11-10

    The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being 'drowned' by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world's great deltas. We demonstrate that spatial variations in the Mekong's suspended sediment load are correlated (r = 0.765, P sediment load reaching the delta is delivered by runoff generated by rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we estimate that the suspended load to the delta has declined by 52.6 ± 10.2 megatonnes over recent years (1981-2005), of which 33.0 ± 7.1 megatonnes is due to a shift in tropical-cyclone climatology. Consequently, tropical cyclones have a key role in controlling the magnitude of, and variability in, transmission of suspended sediment to the coast. It is likely that anthropogenic sediment trapping in upstream reservoirs is a dominant factor in explaining past, and anticipating future, declines in suspended sediment loads reaching the world's major deltas. However, our study shows that changes in tropical-cyclone climatology affect trends in fluvial suspended sediment loads and thus are also key to fully assessing the risk posed to vulnerable coastal systems.

  17. Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, A.; Paliwal, M.; Mohapatra, M.

    2011-12-01

    Cyclones are regarded as one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena of the tropical region. The probability of landfall of a tropical cyclone depends on its movement (trajectory). Analysis of trajectories of tropical cyclones could be useful for identifying potentially predictable characteristics. There is long history of analysis of tropical cyclones tracks. A common approach is using different clustering techniques to group the cyclone tracks on the basis of certain characteristics. Various clustering method have been used to study the tropical cyclones in different ocean basins like western North Pacific ocean (Elsner and Liu, 2003; Camargo et al., 2007), North Atlantic Ocean (Elsner, 2003; Gaffney et al. 2007; Nakamura et al., 2009). In this study, tropical cyclone tracks in the North Indian Ocean basin, for the period 1961-2010 have been analyzed and grouped into clusters based on their spatial characteristics. A tropical cyclone trajectory is approximated as an open curve and described by its first two moments. The resulting clusters have different centroid locations and also differently shaped variance ellipses. These track characteristics are then used in the standard clustering algorithms which allow the whole track shape, length, and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. The resulting clusters have different genesis locations and trajectory shapes. We have also examined characteristics such as life span, maximum sustained wind speed, landfall, seasonality, many of which are significantly different across the identified clusters. The clustering approach groups cyclones with higher maximum wind speed and longest life span in to one cluster. Another cluster includes short duration cyclonic events that are mostly deep depressions and significant for rainfall over Eastern and Central India. The clustering approach is likely to prove useful for analysis of events of significance with regard to impacts.

  18. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  19. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  20. Tropical Cyclone Genesis Efficiency: Mid-Level Versus Bottom Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-16

    storm strength). Figure 4b shows the time evolutions of the corresponding maximum surface wind speed from the four experiments. Based on the definition...Pacific during summer. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2245–2266. Chen, S. S. and W. M. Frank, 1993: A numerical study of the genesis of extratropical convective

  1. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Phys. Fluids, 13, 421–432. 4 Corbosiero, K. L. and J. Molinari, 2003: The relationship between storm motion, vertical 5 wind shear, and convective...Atlantic extratropical transition. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 714–736. 9 Durran, D. R. and J. B. Klemp, 1982: On the effects of moisture on the Brunt-Väisälä

  2. Emission spectroscopy for coal-fired cyclone furnace diagnostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wehrmeyer, J.A.; Boll, D.E.; Smith, R. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2003-08-01

    Using a spectrograph and charge-coupled device (CCD) camera, ultraviolet and visible light emission spectra were obtained from a coal-burning electric utility's cyclone furnaces operating at either fuel-rich or fuel-lean conditions. The aim of this effort is to identify light emission signals that can be related to a cyclone furnace's operating condition in order to adjust its air/fuel ratio to minimize pollutant production. Emission spectra at the burner and outlet ends of cyclone furnaces were obtained. Spectra from all cyclone burners show emission lines for the trace elements Li, Na, K, and Rb, as well as the molecular species OH and CaOH. The Ca emission line is detected at the burner end of both the fuel-rich and fuellean cyclone furnaces but is not detected at the outlet ends of either furnace type. Along with the disappearance of Ca is a concomitant increase in the CaOH signal at the outlet end of both types of furnaces. The OH signal strength is in general stronger when viewing at the burner end rather than the exhaust end of both the fuel-rich and fuel-lean cyclone furnaces, probably due to high, non-equilibrium amounts of OH present inside the furnace. Only one molecular species was detected that could be used as a measure of air/fuel ratio: MgOH. It was detected at the burner end of fuel-rich cyclone furnaces but not detected in fuel-lean cyclone furnaces. More direct markers of air/fuel ratio, such as CO and 02 emission, were not detected, probably due to the generally weak nature of molecular emission relative to ambient blackbody emission present in the cyclone furnaces, even at ultraviolet wavelengths.

  3. External beam monitoring of the Cyclone 30 cyclotron of IPEN-CNEN-SP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Hylton

    2002-01-01

    Due to the increasing demand for cyclotron radioisotopes and the high cost of equipment and materials involved in the process, it becomes evident the importance of external beam monitoring of the cyclotron. In this way, the beam of the Cyclone 30 cyclotron of IPEN-CNEN/S P was characterized throughout the evaluation of its current intensity, profile (position, focus and geometry), alignment and homogeneity, by measuring currents, temperatures and pressures of irradiation systems. For this purpose, techniques and conventional devices, thermocouples and pressure sensors associated to electronic of instrumentation, and technology and flexibility of micro controllers allowed observing the beam behavior during irradiations in real time. The ion beam energy was also evaluated using activation analysis technique of monitor reactions in nat Cu. The beam monitoring systems have been contributing to prevent material damages and they have already been used in routine irradiations, bringing important advantages in the process of beam optimization of the Cyclone 30. (author)

  4. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  5. Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2018-01-01

    A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

  6. Evaluation, engineering and development of advanced cyclone processes. Final separating media evaluation and test report (FSMER)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-19

    {open_quotes}Evaluation Engineering and Development of Advanced Cyclone Processes{close_quotes} is one of the DOE-PETC sponsored advanced coal cleaning projects, which share a number of specific goals. These goals are to produce a 6% ash product, reject 85% of the parent coal`s pyritic sulfur, recover 85% of the parent coal`s Btu value, and provide products that are less than 30% moisture. The process in this project, as the name implies, relies on a cyclone or cyclonic separator to achieve physical beneficiation based on the gravimetric differences between clean coal and its impurities. Just as important as the cyclonic separator, if not more so, is the selection of a parting liquid or medium for use in the separator. Selection of a separating medium is regarded as a significant portion of the project because it has a profound impact on the required unit operations, the performance of the separator, and economics of the process. The choice of medium especially influences selection of media recovery system(s), and the characteristics of clean coal and refuse products. Since medium selection is such an important aspect of the project, portions of the project are dedicated to the study, evaluation, and selection of the most desirable medium. Though separators are an important component, this project initially focused on media study, rather than the separators themselves. In coal processing, discussion of media requires description of the handling and recovery system(s), separation performance, interaction with coal, cost, and health, environmental and safety issues. In order to be effective, a candidate must perform well in all of these categories.

  7. Numerical Study Of Flue Gas Flow In A Multi Cyclone Separator

    OpenAIRE

    Ganga Reddy C; Umesh Kuppuraj

    2015-01-01

    The removal of harmful particulate matter from power plant flue gas is of critical importance to the environment and its inhabitants. The present work illustrates the use of multi-cyclone separators to remove the particulate matter from the bulk of the gas exhausted to the atmosphere. The method has potential to replace conventional systems like electrostatic precipitator due to inherent low power requirement and low maintenance. A parametric model may be employed to design the sy...

  8. The persistent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise

    KAUST Repository

    Gualtieri, Lucia; Camargo, Suzana J.; Pascale, Salvatore; Pons, Flavio M.E.; Ekströ m, Gö ran

    2017-01-01

    The spectrum of ambient seismic noise shows strong signals associated with tropical cyclones, yet a detailed understanding of these signals and the relationship between them and the storms is currently lacking. Through the analysis of more than a decade of seismic data recorded at several stations located in and adjacent to the northwest Pacific Ocean, here we show that there is a persistent and frequency-dependent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise that depends on characteristics of the storm and on the detailed location of the station relative to the storm. An adaptive statistical model shows that the spectral amplitude of ambient seismic noise, and notably of the short-period secondary microseisms, has a strong relationship with tropical cyclone intensity and can be employed to extract information on the tropical cyclones.

  9. Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: Climatology and processes

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jullien, S.; Marchesiello, P.; Menkes, C.E.; Lefevre, J.; Jourdain, N.C.; Samson, G.; Lengaigne, M.

    This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air...

  10. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Providing REgional Climates for Impacts ... The change is evaluated towards the end of present ... For a country like India, where the economy of the ... The influence of green- .... Mean sea level pressure pattern of the PRECIS simulated cyclonic storm.

  11. The persistent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise

    KAUST Repository

    Gualtieri, Lucia

    2017-12-28

    The spectrum of ambient seismic noise shows strong signals associated with tropical cyclones, yet a detailed understanding of these signals and the relationship between them and the storms is currently lacking. Through the analysis of more than a decade of seismic data recorded at several stations located in and adjacent to the northwest Pacific Ocean, here we show that there is a persistent and frequency-dependent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise that depends on characteristics of the storm and on the detailed location of the station relative to the storm. An adaptive statistical model shows that the spectral amplitude of ambient seismic noise, and notably of the short-period secondary microseisms, has a strong relationship with tropical cyclone intensity and can be employed to extract information on the tropical cyclones.

  12. Low NO sub x /SO sub x Burner retrofit for utility cyclone boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    This Public Design Report provides available nonproprietary design information on the Low NO{sub x}SO{sub x} Burner Retrofit of Utility Cyclone Boilers project. In addition to the design aspects, the history of the project, the organization of the project, and the role of the funding parties are discussed. An overview of the Low NO{sub x}SO{sub x} (LNS) Burner, the cyclone boiler and the Southern Illinois Power Cooperative host site is presented. A detailed nonproprietary description of the individual process steps, plant systems, and resulting performance then follows. Narrative process descriptions, simplified process flow diagrams, input/output stream data, operating conditions and requirements are given for each unit. The plant demonstration program and start up provisions, the environmental considerations and control, monitoring and safety factors that are considered are also addressed.

  13. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong

    2012-01-01

    Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

  14. Natural disaster management in India with focus on floods and cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thattai, Deeptha V.; Sathyanathan, R.; Dinesh, R.; Harshit Kumar, L.

    2017-07-01

    Disasters are of two major kinds, natural and manmade, and affect the community. Natural disasters are caused by natural earth processes like floods, droughts, cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and epidemics. Manmade disasters occur due to chemical spills, accidents, terrorism activities etc. India is prone to almost all the major natural disasters. The high population density combined with poor preparedness, planning and management, and rescue and relief measures inevitably lead to huge losses of lives and property every year in the country. This paper analyses the disaster management policy of India and its implementation using two recent case studies - one where a relative degree of success has been achieved (cyclones) and the other where we are still struggling to have even a basic preparedness system in place (floods).

  15. The CI-Flow Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    round and may be applied to all types of coastal storms , including intense cool- season extratropical cyclones (i.e., nor’easters). In addition...associated with waves, tides, storm surge, rivers, and rainfall, including interactions at the tidal/surge interface Within this project, Cl-FLOW addresses...presented for Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Earl (20I0), and Tropical Storm Nicole (2010) for the Tar -Pamlico and Neuse River basins of North

  16. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  17. Design of laboratory cyclone separator for biogas purification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marián Fodora

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with calculation of a cyclone separator for biogas purification using physical and chemical methods. There is presented a methodology for determination of operating dimensions of the cyclone separator and description of principal features of the cyclone separator model. Calculations have been performed for the diameter of the cylindrical part of cyclone separator 175 mm and for the biogas volume flow rate 6.9∙10−5 m3∙s−1. The calculations can be used in practice for the design of cyclone separator depending on the flow rate of biogas, size of the biogas plants respectively. The developed cyclone separator has been used for the cleaning of biogas in operating conditions at the biogas plant in Kolinany (Slovakia. The presented method of biogas purification has been used for the removing of hydrogen sulphide, particulate matter and carbon dioxide from the raw biogas at the biogas plant. Removal of these undesirable impurities from the biogas is an important step in the production of a fully valued fuel, biomethane.

  18. On the performance of small diameter gas cyclones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halasz, Marcos Roberto Teixeira

    2002-02-01

    Small diameter cyclones represent a potential alternative for the removal of small diameter particles from gaseous mixtures as well as the environmental control of their emission. In order to establish feasible configurations of a small diameter cyclone applied in the separation of solid particles dispersed in a gas and considering a large quantify of experimental data in literature, neural networks were used to estimate the equipment grade efficiency and pressure drop. In order to evaluate a performance of many small diameters configurations and analysis was carried of parametrical sensibility which determines the most important variables on separation efficiency determination. A set of experimental runs was carried out in a lab-scale mini-cyclone in order to obtain the separation efficiency and pressure drop for different configurations, and evaluate the feasibility of coupling a post-cyclone device to improve the equipment overall performance. The cyclones used presented diameters of 0.03 and 0.05 m and the remaining dimensions varied proportionally about those found in Stairmand high-efficiency cyclones. Experimental separation efficiencies up to 99% were obtained in this work. These results confirm the feasibility of the experimental set-up configuration proposed. (author)

  19. Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data.

  20. Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform (CCMP reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data.

  1. An exemplary case of a bromine explosion event linked to cyclone development in the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.-M. Blechschmidt

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Intense, cyclone-like shaped plumes of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO are regularly observed by GOME-2 on board the MetOp-A satellite over Arctic sea ice in polar spring. These plumes are often transported by high-latitude cyclones, sometimes over several days despite the short atmospheric lifetime of BrO. However, only few studies have focused on the role of polar weather systems in the development, duration and transport of tropospheric BrO plumes during bromine explosion events. The latter are caused by an autocatalytic chemical chain reaction associated with tropospheric ozone depletion and initiated by the release of bromine from cold brine-covered ice or snow to the atmosphere. In this manuscript, a case study investigating a comma-shaped BrO plume which developed over the Beaufort Sea and was observed by GOME-2 for several days is presented. By making combined use of satellite data and numerical models, it is shown that the occurrence of the plume was closely linked to frontal lifting in a polar cyclone and that it most likely resided in the lowest 3 km of the troposphere. In contrast to previous case studies, we demonstrate that the dry conveyor belt, a potentially bromine-rich stratospheric air stream which can complicate interpretation of satellite retrieved tropospheric BrO, is spatially separated from the observed BrO plume. It is concluded that weather conditions associated with the polar cyclone favoured the bromine activation cycle and blowing snow production, which may have acted as a bromine source during the bromine explosion event.

  2. Analysis of the Numerical Modelling of Turbulence in the Conical Reverse-Flow Cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inga Jakštonienė

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the numerical modelling of the swirling fluid flow in the Stairmand cyclone (conical reverse-flow – CRF with tangential inlet (equipment for separating solid particles from the gaseous fluid flow. A review of experimental and theoretical papers is conducted introducing three-dimen­sional differential equations for transfer processes. The numerical modelling of the Stairmand cyclone the height of which is 0.75 m, diameter – 0.17 m, the height of a cylindrical part – 0.290 m, a conical part – 0,39 m and an inlet area is 0,085×0,032 m is presented. When governing three-dimensional fluid flow, transfer equations Navje-Stokes and Reynolds are solved using the finite volume method in a body-fitted co-ordinate system using standard k– e and RNG k– e model of turbulence. Modelling is realised for inlet velocity 4.64, 9.0 and 14.8 m/s (flow rate was 0.0112, 0.0245 and 0.0388 m3/s. The results obtained from the numerical tests have demonstrated that the RNG k– e model of turbulence yields a reasonably good prediction for highly swirling flows in cyclones: the presented numerical results (tangential and radial velocity profiles are compared with numerical and experimental data obtained by other authors. The mean relative error of ± 7,5% is found. Keywords: cyclone, solid particles, numerical modelling, turbulence, one-phase flow.DOI: 10.3846/mla.2010.085

  3. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  4. Directional Wave Spectra Observed During Intense Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, C. O.; Potter, H.; Lund, B.; Tamura, H.; Graber, H. C.

    2018-02-01

    Two deep-sea moorings were deployed 780 km off the coast of southern Taiwan for 4-5 months during the 2010 typhoon season. Directional wave spectra, wind speed and direction, and momentum fluxes were recorded on two Extreme Air-Sea Interaction buoys during the close passage of Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu and three tropical cyclones (TCs): Typhoon Fanapi, Super Typhoon Megi, and Typhoon Chaba. Conditions sampled include significant wave heights up to 11 m and wind speeds up to 26 m s-1. Details varied for large-scale spectral structure in frequency and direction but were mostly bimodal. The modes were generally composed of a swell system emanating from the most intense storm region and local wind-seas. The peak systems were consistently young, meaning actively forced by winds, when the storms were close. During the peaks of the most intense passages—Chaba at the northern mooring and Megi at the southern—the bimodal seas coalesced. During Chaba, the swell and wind-sea coupling directed the high frequency waves and the wind stress away from the wind direction. A spectral wave model was able reproduce many of the macrofeatures of the directional spectra.

  5. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  6. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-01

    latitudes because of stronger extratropical storm systems, including severe winter storms . General Patterns of Projected Climate Change This section...tropical cyclones, including typhoons and hurri- canes, and extratropical cyclones (i.e., mid-latitude storms ). Tropical storms may become less fre...recorded history.138 Similarly, it is unusual for tropical storms to make landfall in Europe , yet in 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Vince became the

  7. Experimental investigation into the application of a magnetic dense medium cyclone in a production environment / Ilana Katinka Myburgh

    OpenAIRE

    Myburgh, Ilana Katinka

    2001-01-01

    The magnetic dense medium cyclone project was undertaken at Koingnaas Mine on a 250 mm diameter cyclone during 1998 and a 510 mm cyclone during 2000. The aim of the project was to evaluate the performance of a magnetic DM cyclone in a production environment. Previous test work on magnetic DM cyclones were conducted during 1995 and 1996 on small (100 mm) cyclones in a laboratory environment, with medium feed only. Solenoid position, magnetic field strength and medium inlet de...

  8. Development of high, medium and low oil content hydro cyclones; Desenvolvimento de hidrociclones para altos, medios e baixos teores de oleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moraes, Carlos Alberto Capela; Marins, Luiz Philipe Martinez; Melo, Darley Carrijo de; Silva, Fabricio Soares da [Centro de Pesquisas da Petrobras (CENPES). Gerencia de Tecnologia de Processamento e Avaliacao de Petroleo (Brazil)], e-mails: capela@petrobras.com.br, philipe@petrobras.com.br, darley@petrobras.com.br, fabriciosoares@petrobras.com.br; Oliveira Junior, Joao Americo Aguirre [Engineering Simulation and Scientific Software (ESSS), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil)], e-mail: aguirre@esss.com.br; Souza, Marcos Aurelio de; Barca, Luiz Fernando [Universidade Federal de Itajuba. Instituto de Engenharia Mecanica, MG (Brazil)], e-mails: maurelio@unifei.edu.br, barca@unifei.edu.br; Souza, Adriana Margarida Rodrigues Ferreira de [Fundacao Gorceix (Brazil)], e-mail: adrianamargarida.gorceix@petrobras.com.br; Almeida, Cristina Santos de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Fundacao de Coordenacao de Projetos, Pesquisa e Estudos Tecnologicos (COPPETEC/UFRJ). Escola de Quimica, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: cristinaalmeida.coppetec@petrobras.com.br

    2008-12-15

    This paper is intended to describe the steps and present the results of a Research and Development (P and D) project aimed at developing and qualifying hydro cyclones for oil and water primary separation by PETROBRAS. The hydro cyclones families for high, medium and low oil content, respectively named as ATO, MTO and BTO were developed in this project and are currently in the patent filing phase. The members of each one of them were initially conceived and analyzed by means of numeric simulations (CFD). The set-ups for these simulations were based on experimental investigation supplemental papers of the fluid-dynamics in hydro cyclones, with the use of Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA and PIV) in acrylic models. After the selection of the geometries for optimum performance at the CFD, actual size steel prototypes were designed and built for each one of the aforementioned hydro cyclones families. It was also designed and built a two-skid mounted system and one control rack which comprise a Mobile Lab for Hydro cyclone Tests (LMTH, being the acronym in Portuguese) with which field tests were carried out (Buracica Field, Bahia) in the prototypes. As the last phase of the Research and Development (R and D) project, it was prepared a computer routine which allows the performance of a project of a compact separation system for any specific application, using the hydro cyclones of the families aforementioned in series in the streams rich in water. This routine enables, from the features of the fluids in the application in particular, to select the most appropriate hydro cyclone to be used, obtain their corresponding operating conditions and also to obtain an estimate of the minimum performance range expected in the application under analysis. (author)

  9. Tropical cyclone disasters in the Gulf of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The origin of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea is over a vast deep sea, southeast of the Philippines. The severetropical cyclones in summer with northerly tracks attack the Philippines, China, Korea and Japan, while the moderate ones inthe rainy season with northwesterly tracks pass Vietnam, Laos and northern Thailand. In October, November and December, the tropical cyclones are weakened and tracks shift to a lower latitude passing the Gulf of Thailand. Tropical cyclone disasters in the Gulf of Thailand due to strong winds causing storm surges and big waves or heavy rainfall over high mountains in causing floods and land slides result in moderate damages and casualties. Analyses are made of six decades of data of tropical cyclones from 1951-2006 having averaged numbers of 3 and 13 in Thailand and the South China Sea respectively. Detailed calculation of surges and wave heights of the 5 disastrous tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Thailand reveal that the Upper Gulf of Thailand with a limited fetch length of about 100 km in north/south direction and about 100 km width in the east/west direction, resulted in a limited maximum wave height of 2.3-2.5 m and maximum storm surge height of 1.2 m generated by Typhoon Vae (1952, while the east coast, with longer fetch lengthbut still limited by the existence of its shoreline, resulted in an increased maximum wave height of 4 m and maximum storm surge height of 0.6 m in the Upper Gulf of Thailand generated by Typhoon Linda (1997. These are the Probable Maximum Cyclones here.The southern shoreline, with unlimited fetch length on the east by tropical cyclones approaching from the South China Sea, generated maximum wave height of 6-11 m by Typhoon Gay (1989, resulting in more casualties and damages. Note that storm surges on the southern shorelines with steep slopes are small due to the short distance of shallow shorelines in receiving wind stresses for piling up sea levels. These disasters can be

  10. Infectious Diseases and Tropical Cyclones in Southeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jietao; Han, Weixiao; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei; Zhang, Ying

    2017-05-07

    Southeast China is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) with significant economic and health burdens each year. However, there is a lack of understanding of what infectious diseases could be affected by tropical cyclones. This study aimed to examine the impacts of tropical cyclones on notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China. Disease data between 2005 and 2011 from four coastal provinces in southeast China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Zhejiang, and Fujian province, were collected. Numbers of cases of 14 infectious diseases were compared between risk periods and reference periods for each tropical cyclone. Risk ratios (RR s ) were calculated to estimate the risks. TCs were more likely to increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, paratyphoid fever, dengue fever and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis ( ps infectious diseases. TCs are more likely to increase the risk of intestinal and contact transmitted infectious diseases than to decrease the risk, and more likely to decrease the risk of respiratory infectious diseases than to increase the risk. Findings of this study would assist in developing public health strategies and interventions for the reduction of the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones.

  11. Design basis tropical cyclone for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The general characteristics of tropical cyclones are discussed in this Safety Guide, with particular emphasis on their pressure and wind structures in the light of available data. General methods are given for the evaluation of the relevant parameters of a Probable Maximum Tropical Cyclone (PMTC), which can be used as the Design Basis Tropical Cyclone (DBTC); these parameters then serve as inputs for the derivation of a design basis surge and a design basis wind. A possible method is also given for the evaluation of the PMTC pressure and wind field based on an approach valid primarily for a particular region. This method depends on the results of a theoretical study on the tropical cyclone structure and makes use of a large amount of data, including aircraft reconnaissance observations for 170 most intense tropical cyclones near the coast of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines for the period 1960-1974, as well as detailed analyses of all the extreme storms along the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the USA during 1900-1978, for the determination of the necessary parameters

  12. Contrasting Various Metrics for Measuring Tropical Cyclone Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Yuh Yu Ping-Gin Chiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Popular metrics used for measuring the tropical cyclone (TC activity, including NTC (number of tropical cyclones, TCD (tropical cyclone days, ACE (accumulated cyclone energy, PDI (power dissipation index, along with two newly proposed indices: RACE (revised accumulated cyclone energy and RPDI (revised power dissipation index, are compared using the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track data of TC over the western North Pacific basin. Our study shows that, while the above metrics have demonstrated various degrees of discrepancies, but in practical terms, they are all able to produce meaningful temporal and spatial changes in response to climate variability. Compared with the conventional ACE and PDI, RACE and RPDI seem to provide a more precise estimate of the total TC activity, especially in projecting the upswing trend of TC activity over the past few decades, simply because of a better approach in estimating TC wind energy. However, we would argue that there is still no need to find a ¡§universal¡¨ or ¡§best¡¨ metric for TC activity because different metrics are designed to stratify different aspects of TC activity, and whether the selected metric is appropriate or not should be determined solely by the purpose of study. Except for magnitude difference, the analysis results seem insensitive to the choice of the best-track datasets.

  13. Impact of flocculation on flotation tailing's hydro-cycloning properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Dinko N.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Research results of hydro-cycloning of flocculated and non-flocculated flotation tailing from the lead and zinc open pit mine 'Suplja stijena', Sula - Montenegro have been shown in this paper. Reason for this research was finding conditions in order to separate fraction that is suitable for embankment erection. Flotation tailings has been tested in the very state that it goes out from the flotation process and tailings which is flocculated by anionic flocculant. The object was to determine the impact of flocculation on properties of hydro-cycloning products and disposal process. In hydro-cycloning process greater underflow mass is being separated with non-flocculated tailing. Values of geomechanical parameters are significantly different, especially hydro-cyclone's underflow. All geomechanical parameters of hydro-cyclone's underflow are suitable for erecting embankment which shall be made from non-flocculated tailing. Underflow drainage of non-flocculated tailing is faster while overflow drainage is slower and problematic with both tailings.

  14. Infectious Diseases and Tropical Cyclones in Southeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jietao Zheng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Southeast China is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs with significant economic and health burdens each year. However, there is a lack of understanding of what infectious diseases could be affected by tropical cyclones. This study aimed to examine the impacts of tropical cyclones on notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China. Disease data between 2005 and 2011 from four coastal provinces in southeast China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Zhejiang, and Fujian province, were collected. Numbers of cases of 14 infectious diseases were compared between risk periods and reference periods for each tropical cyclone. Risk ratios (RRs were calculated to estimate the risks. TCs were more likely to increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, paratyphoid fever, dengue fever and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (ps < 0.05 than to decrease the risk, more likely to decrease the risk of measles, mumps, varicella and vivax malaria (ps < 0.05 than to increase the risk. In conclusion, TCs have mixed effects on the risk of infectious diseases. TCs are more likely to increase the risk of intestinal and contact transmitted infectious diseases than to decrease the risk, and more likely to decrease the risk of respiratory infectious diseases than to increase the risk. Findings of this study would assist in developing public health strategies and interventions for the reduction of the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones.

  15. An investigation into heat recovery from the surface of a cyclone dust collector attached to a downdraft biomass gasifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nwokolo, Nwabunwanne; Mamphweli, Sampson; Makaka, Golden

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • At a temperature of 450 °C–500 °C, hot syngas is regarded as a good heat carrier. • A significant quantity of energy (665893.07 kcal) is lost via the surface of the cyclone. • The surface temperature 150 °C–220 °C was within the low waste heat recovery temperature. - Abstract: The gas leaving the reactor of a downdraft biomass gasifier contains large quantities of heat energy; this is due to the fact that the gas passes through a hot bed of charcoal before leaving the reactor. This heat is normally wasted in the gas scrubber/cooler that cools it from between 400 °C–500 °C to ambient temperature (around 25 °C). The waste heat stream under consideration is the raw syngas that emanates from a gasification process in a downdraft gasifier situated at Melani Village, Eastern Cape. This loss of heat is undesirable as it impacts on the thermal efficiency of the system. This study investigates the feasibility of heat recovery from the surface of the cyclone dust collector prior to entering the gas scrubber. It was shown that there was a downward decrease in temperature along the length of the cyclone. It is found that the total quantity of heat contained in the gas was 665893.07 kcal, which could indicate the viability of recovering heat from the cyclone.

  16. NOAA JPSS Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)-based Tropical Cyclone (TC) Products from NDE

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The JPSS Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone (TC) Products provide estimates of tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, radii of 34,...

  17. The lowering of sea surface temperature in the east central Arabian sea associated with a cyclone

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, D.P.; Sastry, J.S.

    An analysis of thermal Structure in the East Central Arabian Sea associated with a moderate cyclone is presented. The heat storage and the heat budget components have been computed. Under the influence of the cyclone the Sea Surface Temperature (SST...

  18. Wave forecasting and monitoring during very severe cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, T.M.B; Remya, P.G.; Harikumar, R.; Sandhya, K.G.; Sirisha, P.; Srinivas, K.; Nagaraju, C.; Nherakkol, A.; KrishnaPrasad, B.; Jeyakumar, C.; Kaviyazhahu, K.; Hithin, N.K.; Kumari, R.; SanilKumar, V.; RameshKumar, M.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Nayak, S.

    Wave fields, both measured and forecast during the very severe cyclone Phailin, are discussed in this communication. Waves having maximum height of 13.54 m were recorded at Gopalpur, the landfall point of the cyclone. The forecast and observed...

  19. Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, J.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M.; Yang, S.; Lee, T. F.; Sampson, C. R.; Solbrig, J.; Kuciauskas, A. P.; Miller, S. D.; Kent, J.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing capabilities to monitor tropical cyclone (TC) location, structure, and intensity have evolved by utilizing a combination of operational and research and development (R&D) sensors. The microwave imagers from the operational Defense Meteorological Satellite Program [Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)] form the "base" for structure observations due to their ability to view through upper-level clouds, modest size swaths and ability to capture most storm structure features. The NASA TRMM microwave imager and precipitation radar continue their 15+ yearlong missions in serving the TC warning and research communities. The cessation of NASA's QuikSCAT satellite after more than a decade of service is sorely missed, but India's OceanSat-2 scatterometer is now providing crucial ocean surface wind vectors in addition to the Navy's WindSat ocean surface wind vector retrievals. Another Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard EUMETSAT's MetOp-2 satellite is slated for launch soon. Passive microwave imagery has received a much needed boost with the launch of the French/Indian Megha Tropiques imager in September 2011, basically greatly supplementing the very successful NASA TRMM pathfinder with a larger swath and more frequent temporal sampling. While initial data issues have delayed data utilization, current news indicates this data will be available in 2013. Future NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) sensors starting in 2014 will provide enhanced capabilities. Also, the inclusion of the new microwave sounder data from the NPP ATMS (Oct 2011) will assist in mapping TC convective structures. The National Polar orbiting Partnership (NPP) program's VIIRS sensor includes a day night band (DNB) with the capability to view TC cloud structure at night when sufficient lunar illumination exits. Examples highlighting this new capability will be discussed in concert with additional data fusion efforts.

  20. Advanced In-Furnace NOx Control for Wall and Cyclone-Fired Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarv, Hamid

    2009-01-01

    A NO x minimization strategy for coal-burning wall-fired and cyclone boilers was developed that included deep air staging, innovative oxygen use, reburning, and advanced combustion control enhancements. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was applied to refine and select the best arrangements. Pilot-scale tests were conducted by firing an eastern high-volatile bituminous Pittsburgh No.8 coal at 5 million Btu/hr in a facility that was set up with two-level overfire air (OFA) ports. In the wall-fired mode, pulverized coal was burned in a geometrically scaled down version of the B and W DRB-4Z(reg sign) low-NO x burner. At a fixed overall excess air level of 17%, NO x emissions with single-level OFA ports were around 0.32 lb/million Btu at 0.80 burner stoichiometry. Two-level OFA operation lowered the NO x levels to 0.25 lb/million Btu. Oxygen enrichment in the staged burner reduced the NO x values to 0.21 lb/million Btu. Oxygen enrichment plus reburning and 2-level OFA operation further curbed the NO x emissions to 0.19 lb/million Btu or by 41% from conventional air-staged operation with single-level OFA ports. In the cyclone firing arrangement, oxygen enrichment of the cyclone combustor enabled high-temperature and deeply staged operation while maintaining good slag tapping. Firing the Pittsburgh No.8 coal in the optimum arrangement generated 112 ppmv NO x (0.15 lb/million Btu) and 59 ppmv CO. The optimum emissions results represent 88% NO x reduction from the uncontrolled operation. Levelized costs for additional NO x removal by various in-furnace control methods in reference wall-fired or cyclone-fired units already equipped with single-level OFA ports were estimated and compared with figures for SCR systems achieving 0.1 lb NO x /10 6 Btu. Two-level OFA ports could offer the most economical approach for moderate NO x control, especially for smaller units. O 2 enrichment in combination with 2-level OFA was not cost effective for wall-firing. For cyclone units

  1. Waves off Gopalpur, northern Bay of Bengal during cyclone Phailin.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Amrutha, M.M.; SanilKumar, V.; Anoop, T.R.; Nair, T.M.B.; Nherakkol, A.; Jeyakumar, C.

    , 1073–1083, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/1073/2014/ doi:10.5194/angeo-32-1073-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Waves off Gopalpur, northern Bay of Bengal during Cyclone Phailin M. M. Amrutha1, V. Sanil Kumar1, T. R. Anoop1, T. M..., 1073–1083, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/1073/2014/ M. M. Amrutha et al.: Waves off Gopalpur, northern Bay of Bengal during Cyclone Phailin 1075 Figure 1. Track of the Cyclone Phailin from 8 October 2013 03:00 UTC to 13 October 2013 06:00 UTC. S(f )= αg 2...

  2. Demonstration of coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO{sub x} control. Appendix, Book 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-06-01

    Based on the industry need for a pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator, Babcock Wilcox (B&W) designed, fabricated, and installed such a facility at its Alliance Research Center (ARC) in 1985. The project involved conversion of an existing pulverized coal-fired facility to be cyclone-firing capable. Additionally, convective section tube banks were installed in the upper furnace in order to simulate a typical boiler convection pass. The small boiler simulator (SBS) is designed to simulate most fireside aspects of full-size utility boilers such as combustion and flue gas emissions characteristics, fireside deposition, etc. Prior to the design of the pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator, the various cyclone boiler types were reviewed in order to identify the inherent cyclone boiler design characteristics which are applicable to the majority of these boilers. The cyclone boiler characteristics that were reviewed include NO{sub x} emissions, furnace exit gas temperature (FEGT) carbon loss, and total furnace residence time. Previous pilot-scale cyclone-fired furnace experience identified the following concerns: (1) Operability of a small cyclone furnace (e.g., continuous slag tapping capability). (2) The optimum cyclone(s) configuration for the pilot-scale unit. (3) Compatibility of NO{sub x} levels, carbon burnout, cyclone ash carryover to the convection pass, cyclone temperature, furnace residence time, and FEGT.

  3. A comparison of explosive cyclone characteristics in recent reanalyses: NCEP CFSR, JRA-55, and ERA-Interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kita, Y.; Waseda, T.

    2016-12-01

    Explosive cyclones (EXPCs) were investigated in three recent reanalyses. Their tracking methods is diverse among researchers, and additionally reanalysis data they use are various. Reanalysis data are essential as initial conditions to implement a downscale simulation with high accuracy. In this study, characteristics of EXPCs in three recent reanalyses were investigated from several perspectives: track densities, minimum MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure), and radius of EXPCs. The tracking method of extratropical cyclones (ECs) is to track local minimum of MSLP. The domain is limited to Eastern Asia and the North Pacific Ocean (lat20°:70°, lon100°:200°), and target period is 2000-2014. Fig.1 shows that the frequencies of EXPCs, which is defined as ECs whose MSLP drops by over 12hPa in 12hours, are greatly different, noting that extracted EXPCs are those whose most deepening phases were located around Japan (lat20°:60°, lon110°:160°). In addition, they are dissimilar to those in a previous EXPCs database (Kawamura et al.) and results in weather map analyses. The differences between each frequency might be caused by MSLP at their centers: there were sometimes small gaps of a few hPa. The minimum MSLP and effective radius were also investigated, but distributions of effective radii of EXPCs did not show significant difference (Fig.2). Thus, the gaps of central MSLP just matter in the differences of their trends. To evaluate the path density of EXPCs, two-dimensional kernel density estimation was conducted. The kernel densities of EXPCs' tracks in three reanalyses seem similar: they accumulated apparently above ocean (not shown). Two-dimensional kernel densities of EXPCs' most deepening points accumulated above Sea of Japan, Kuroshio and Extension. Therefore, it is proved that there are considerable differences in numbers of EXPCs depending on reanalyses, while the general characteristics of EXPCs just have little difference. It is worthwhile to say that careful

  4. An Exploration of Mechanisms for Mediating the Influence of Extratropical Glaciation on the Tropical Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Frierson, D. M.

    2006-05-01

    To obtain a better understanding of the basic mechanisms by which the atmosphere transmits extratropical influences into the tropics, we have analyzed a series of general circulation model experiments carried out with idealized continental boundary conditions. These experiments were carried out with the FOAM1.5 model, which is in essence a portable Beowulf-oriented reimplementation of CCM3. In accord with our focus on the atmosphere in this work, the atmospheric model is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean with lateral ocean heat flux set to zero. The continental geometry consists of a pair of zonally symmetric continents, one centered on each pole. The Southern Hemisphere continent extends to 65S, and is kept glaciated in all experiments. The Northern Hemisphere continent extends to 42N, and is glaciated in the NHCOLD experiment but bare land in the NHWARM experiment. Sea ice feedback was suppressed in these simulations, but given the geometry of the Northern Hemisphere continent, the NHCOLD case can be taken as representing the combined forcing due to land glaciation and equatorward advance of sea ice. These experiments allow us to examine, in a very clean way, the response of the tropics to a very large extratropical cooling imposed at the surface, in a model which is energetically closed. Comparison of the two simulations has yielded the following results. The principal means by which the midlatitude glaciation affects the tropics is via a marked increase in poleward NH wintertime sensible heat flux, which is uncompensated by reduction in latent heat flux. The coupling of the storm tracks to the tropics is weak, however, and causes only a moderate cooling in the Northern subtropics and hardly any south of the Equator. The dynamics behind this barrier effect are discussed. The increased sensible heat flux,however, causes a considerable strengthening of the Hadley circulation; this strengthening allows the ITCZ precipitation to remain approximately unchanged between

  5. Sensitivity study of surface wind flow of a limited area model simulating the extratropical storm Delta affecting the Canary Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Marrero, C.; Jorba, O.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2009-01-01

    In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain). The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW). A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, d...

  6. Mesoscale air-sea interactions related to tropical and extratropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James K.; Hsu, S. A.

    1992-01-01

    Observations of the lower atmosphere of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from November 1982 to mid-February 1983 were studied in which seven significant cyclones were generated in the northwestern gulf. It was found that all seven storms occurred when the vorticity correlate of the horizontal air temperature difference was about 3-5 C above the climatological mean difference. It is shown that a maximum in the frequency of tropical storms within the Gulf of Mexico exists some 275 km south of the Mississippi delta at 27 deg N, 90 deg W. This maximum is a result of only those storms which originate within the gulf. Two plausible effects of the Loop Current and its rings on tropical storms are discussed. One is that these ocean features are large and consolidated heat and moisture sources from which a nearby slowly moving atmospheric disturbance can extract energy. The second is that of the cyclonic vorticity that can be generated in the lower atmosphere by such oceanographic features.

  7. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... the cyclonic storm. This study explores why. the whole atmosphere from surface to 500 hPa had become warm and moist during the cyclonic storm period as compared to before and after the formation of this system and; the lower layer of the atmosphere had become stable during the formative stage of the cyclonic storm.

  8. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  9. Cyclonic eddies identified in the Cape Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Lutjeharms, J. R. E.

    2011-03-01

    Inter-ocean exchange south of Africa takes place largely through the movement of Agulhas Rings into the Cape Basin. Recent observations have shown that the highly energetic flow field in this basin consists of anti-cyclonic rings as well as cyclonic eddies. Very little is known of the characteristics of the cyclonic eddies. Using altimetric data, this study determines the location, frequency and seasonality of these cyclonic eddies their size, trajectories, life spans and their association with Agulhas Rings. Cyclonic eddies were seen to split, merge and link with other cyclonic eddies, where splitting events created child cyclonic eddies. The 105 parent and 157 child cyclonic eddies identified over a decade show that on average 11 parent and 17 child cyclonic eddies appear annually in AVISO merged absolute dynamic topography data along the continental slope. Thirty-two percent follow an overall west south-westward direction, with 27% going west north-westward. Average translocation speeds are 2.2 ± 0.1 km/day for parent and 3.0 ± 0.2 km/day for child cyclonic eddies. Parent cyclonic eddy lifespan averaged 250 ± 18 days; whereas child cyclonic eddies survived for only 118 ± 11 days. A significant difference in lifespan for parent and child cyclonic eddies identified in the north and south region of the study area was detected. Seventy-seven percent of the northern and 93% of the southern cyclonic eddies were first detected directly adjacent to passing Agulhas Rings, suggesting a vital interaction between these mesoscale eddies within the region. Topographical features appeared to affect the behaviour and lifespan of these deep cyclonic eddies.

  10. The sensitivity of characteristics of cyclone activity to identification procedures in tracking algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Rudeva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The IMILAST project (‘Intercomparison of Mid-Latitude Storm Diagnostics’ was set up to compare low-level cyclone climatologies derived from a number of objective identification algorithms. This paper is a contribution to that effort where we determine the sensitivity of three key aspects of Northern Hemisphere cyclone behaviour [namely the number of cyclones, their intensity (defined here in terms of the central pressure and their deepening rates] to specific features in the automatic cyclone identification. The sensitivity is assessed with respect to three such features which may be thought to influence the ultimate climatology produced (namely performance in areas of complicated orography, time of the detection of a cyclone, and the representation of rapidly propagating cyclones. We make use of 13 tracking methods in this analysis. We find that the filtering of cyclones in regions where the topography exceeds 1500 m can significantly change the total number of cyclones detected by a scheme, but has little impact on the cyclone intensity distribution. More dramatically, late identification of cyclones (simulated by the truncation of the first 12 hours of cyclone life cycle leads to a large reduction in cyclone numbers over the both continents and oceans (up to 80 and 40%, respectively. Finally, the potential splitting of the trajectories at times of the fastest propagation has a negligible climatological effect on geographical distribution of cyclone numbers. Overall, it has been found that the averaged deepening rates and averaged cyclone central pressure are rather insensitive to the specifics of the tracking procedure, being more sensitive to the data set used (as shown in previous studies and the geographical location of a cyclone.

  11. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  12. Automatic Type Recognition and Mapping of Global Tropical Cyclone Disaster Chains (TDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The catastrophic events caused by meteorological disasters are becoming more severe in the context of global warming. The disaster chains triggered by Tropical Cyclones induce the serious losses of population and economy. It is necessary to make the regional type recognition of Tropical Cyclone Disaster Chain (TDC effective in order to make targeted preventions. This study mainly explores the method of automatic recognition and the mapping of TDC and designs a software system. We constructed an automatic recognition system in terms of the characteristics of a hazard-formative environment based on the theory of a natural disaster system. The ArcEngine components enable an intelligent software system to present results by the automatic mapping approach. The study data comes from global metadata such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM, terrain slope, population density and Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The result shows that: (1 according to the characteristic of geomorphology type, we establish a type of recognition system for global TDC; (2 based on the recognition principle, we design a software system with the functions of automatic recognition and mapping; and (3 we validate the type of distribution in terms of real cases of TDC. The result shows that the automatic recognition function has good reliability. The study can provide the basis for targeted regional disaster prevention strategy, as well as regional sustainable development.

  13. Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

    2017-12-01

    While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

  14. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  15. The neighbor enclosed area tracking algorithm and its application to cyclone merger in the midlatitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inatsu, Masaru; Amada, Shotarou; Satake, Yuya

    2010-05-01

    The neighbor enclosed area tracking (NEAT) algorithm is proposed as an alternative method to conventional point-to-point cyclone tracking approaches. Most automated Lagrangian tracking algorithms contain three procedures: cyclone identification, cyclone tracking, and quantification of cyclone intensity and activity. The cyclone identification was simply based on a comparison of neighboring grid points; cyclone tracking mainly employed a near-neighbor point search to neighbor-time cyclone-center datasets; and cyclone intensity and activity are mainly quantified as cyclone track density, and other accompanying products such as genesis and lysis densities, mean lifetime, average moving vector, and mean growth rate can also be obtained in the final procedure. But a crucial problem in the above technique is its requirement of some complicated connecting conditions for near-neighbor tracking. To overcome the problem, NEAT completes cyclone identification and cyclone tracking in a single process of equivalent labeling for spatiotemporally connected domains, i.e., if two spatially enclosed areas in a neighboring time frame overlap, they should be connected. NEAT enables us to count the genesis and tracks of individual cyclones as the conventional tracking. Moreover, NEAT has the ability to produce fruitful information on cyclone mergers and separations, cyclone shape, and material transport by individual eddies (the latter two features will be reported elsewhere). There are many possible applications of NEAT to meteorology and oceanography, but now we focus on the situation, well-known by Japanese synopticians, that two cyclones pass respectively over the north and south of Japan and then they frequently merge and are rapidly deepened in the western Pacific. For the case, the southern cyclones tend to be stimulated just above the sea surface temperature front to the north of oceanic western boundary currents, while the northern cyclones, moving eastward along the polar

  16. Estimates of Two-Phase Flow Parameters in the Cyclone Chamber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razva Aleksandr

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It provides analysis of methods for assessing circumferential speeds distribution of pressure in the cyclone chamber. It is shown that for cylindrical chambers of less than two diameters and the inlet section of at least 0.1 square cross section the maximum peripheral speed and rate distributions circumferential speeds along the current line is not changed. Analysis of the distribution shows that the concentration of small particles that are typical for gas dedusting systems have a significant impact on the distribution of pressure, vacuum and on the axis of the absolute value decreases toward dust of output section unlike the swirl chambers fuel combustion.

  17. Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  18. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  19. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V; Levermann, Anders

    2014-01-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions. (letter)

  20. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  1. Climatology and Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in the South- West ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract—The climatology of cyclone formation and behaviour in the South-West Indian Ocean, including landfall in Mozambique and Madagascar, has been investigated. The records used were obtained by merging track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre with data from La Reunion – Regional Specialised ...

  2. Track prediction of very severe cyclone 'Nargis' using high resolution ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tides (surges) as they cross the coast of India,. Bangladesh and other coasts. Strong winds, heavy and torrential rains and the cumulative effect of storm surges and astronomical tides are the three major elements of tropical cyclone ... Ocean move predominantly along westerly/ northwesterly direction. However, some ...

  3. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during ...

  4. Sensitivity of Simulated Cyclone Gonu Intensity and Track to Variety ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    57

    improvement in simulated intensity, an accuracy reduction in simulated track was observed. Increasing ... improve the prediction of the TC Gonu using the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. For the first time, ...... World Meteorological Organization (2014) Tropical cyclone operational plan for the Bay of. Bengal and the ...

  5. Corruption in cyclone preparedness and relief efforts in coastal Bangladesh

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmud, Tanvir; Prowse, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This article seeks to draw possible lessons for adaptation programmes in Bangladesh by examining whether cyclone preparedness and relief interventions are subject to corrupt practices. Based on a random sample survey of 278 households, three focus-group discussions and seven key-informant...

  6. Waves off Puducherry, Bay of Bengal, during cyclone THANE

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Johnson, G.; Dubhashi, K.K.; Nair, T.M.B.

    -CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colarado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/. Wind data available at Joint Typhone Warning Centre site during the cyclone period (26-29 December 2011) is used to estimate waves (Chu et al. 2012). 4 Maximum Hm0 and Tp within...

  7. Climatology and Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in the South- West ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    with a substantial increase (about 0.3˚C) in sea surface temperature. However, it is ... Julian (1994). El Niño is known to cause increased cyclone activity in the South and in the North-East. Pacific, but decreased activity in the North Atlantic.

  8. CONVECTIVE HEAT TRANSFER IN CYCLONE DEVICE WITH EXTERNAL GAS RECIRCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Karpov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the convective heat transfer on the surface of a hollow cylinder or several billets in a cyclone device with the new principle of external gas recirculation. According to this principle, transport of coolant from the lateral surface of the chamber, where the temperature is the highest, in the axial region is being fulfilled due to the pressure drop between the wall and axial areas of cyclonic flow. Dependency analysis of average and local heat transfer coefficients from operational and geometrical parameters has been performed; the generalized similarity equations for the calculation of the latter have been suggested. It is demonstrated that in case of download of a cyclone chamber with several billets, the use of the considered scheme of the external recirculation due to the specific characteristics of aerodynamics practically does not lead to noticeable changes in the intensity of convective heat transfer. Both experimental data and the numerical simulation results obtained with the use of OpenFOAM platform were used in the work. The investigations fulfilled will expand the area of the use of cyclone heating devices.

  9. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important ... made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the ..... In: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis (eds).

  10. Upper Oceanic Energy Response to Tropical Cyclone Passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-15

    lagged SST cooling is approximately 0.78C for a ‘‘typical’’ TC at 308 latitude, whereas the same storm results in 10-day (30-day) lagged decreases of...during tropical to extratropical transition). The scenario above led to the development of the TC potential intensity (PI) thesis, an important...is approximately 0.78C for a ??typical?? TC at 308 latitude, whereas the same storm results in 10-day (30-day) lagged decreases of upper oceanic

  11. Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    Proxy data over tropical latitudes for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been interpreted as a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and so far linked to a mechanism analogous to the modern day “meridional-mode” in the Atlantic Ocean. Here we have explored alternative mechanisms, related to the direct impact of the LGM global changes in the dry static stability on tropical moist deep convection. We have used a coupled ocean-atmosphere model capable of capturing the thermodynamical structure of the atmosphere and the tropical component of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In each experiment, we have applied either all the LGM forcings, or the individual contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations, ice sheet topography and/or albedo to explore the hydrological response over tropical latitudes with a focus on South America. The dominant forcing for the LGM tropical temperature and precipitation changes is found to be due to the reduced GHG, through the direct effect of reduced radiative heating (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). The LGM GHG is also responsible for increased extra-tropical static stability which strengthens the Hadley Cell. Stronger subsidence over northern tropics then produces an amplification of the northern tropics drying initially due to the direct cooling effect. The land ice sheet is also able to promote the Hadley cell feedback mostly via the topographic effect on the extra-tropical dry static stability and on the position of the subtropical jets. Our results therefore suggest that the communication between the extratropics and the tropics is tighter during LGM and does not necessarily rely on the “meridional-mode” mechanism. The Hadley cell response is constrained by the requirement that diabatic heating in the tropics balances cooling in subtropics. We show that such extratropics-tropics dependence is stronger at the LGM because of the stronger perturbation of northern extra tropical thermal and

  12. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskey, Manil; Cecil, Dan; Ramachandran, Rahul; Miller, Jeffrey J.

    2018-01-01

    Estimating tropical cyclone intensity by just using satellite image is a challenging problem. With successful application of the Dvorak technique for more than 30 years along with some modifications and improvements, it is still used worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. A number of semi-automated techniques have been derived using the original Dvorak technique. However, these techniques suffer from subjective bias as evident from the most recent estimations on October 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC for Tropical Storm Ophelia: The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33 kt (Tropical Cyclone Number 2.3/33 knots) from UW-CIMSS (University of Wisconsin-Madison - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB (the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) to T4.0/65 kt from SAB (NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch). In this particular case, two human experts at TAFB and SAB differed by 20 knots in their Dvorak analyses, and the automated version at the University of Wisconsin was 12 knots lower than either of them. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates about 10-20 percent uncertainty in its post analysis when only satellite based estimates are available. The success of the Dvorak technique proves that spatial patterns in infrared (IR) imagery strongly relate to tropical cyclone intensity. This study aims to utilize deep learning, the current state of the art in pattern recognition and image recognition, to address the need for an automated and objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Deep learning is a multi-layer neural network consisting of several layers of simple computational units. It learns discriminative features without relying on a human expert to identify which features are important. Our study mainly focuses on convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, to develop an objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. CNN is a supervised learning

  13. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  14. CYCLONE. Neutron therapy facility at Louvain-la-Neuve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meulders, J.P.; Saedeleer, G. de; Winant, M.; Wambersie, A.

    1979-01-01

    The neutrontherapy program at Louvain-la-Neuve is carried out with the cyclotron CYCLONE of the Catholic University. This isochronous variable energy cyclotron, produced by CSF (Corbeville, France), accelerates different types of charged particles; in particular, deuterons can be accelerated at energies ranging from 13 to 50 MeV. Neutrons used for therapeutic applications are produced by bombarding a thick (10 mm) water cooled, Beryllium target with 50 MeV deuterons. A beam current of about 5 μA is used for patient treatments, which produces dose rates of about 0,5 Gy/min at a target-skin-distance (TSD) of 157 cm. The treatment room, and related medical facilities, are located one level below the main level of the cyclotron. This permits the use of a vertical therapeutic neutron beam by bending the deuteron beam at 90 0 . This vertical beam appears to be more adequate for positioning the majority of the patients. The collimation system consists of a fixed shielding and of a series of interchangeable inserts. The inserts are cylindrical in shape; their height is 80 cm and their external diameter 40 cm. The proximal part (50 cm) is a mixture of iron (equivalent thickness 22 cm) and epoxy, and the distal part (30 cm) is a mixture (50%) of borax and epoxy. The emphasis is made on the radioprotection conditions. A series of measurements made in the treatment room and in the entry maze have shown that their special configuration provides a satisfactory protection of the staff. (author)

  15. An Intercomparison of GPS RO Retrievals with Colocated Analysis and In Situ Observations within Tropical Cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry R. Winterbottom

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Observations from four Global Position System (GPS Radio Occultation (RO missions: Global Positioning System/Meteorology, CHAallenging Minisatellite Payload, Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C, and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate and Taiwan's FORMOsa SATellite Mission #3 (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 are collected within a 600 km radius and ±180 minute temporal window of all observed tropical cyclones (TCs from 1995 to 2006 that were recorded in the global hurricane best-track reanalysis data set (Jarvinen et al. (1984; Davis et al. (1984. A composite analysis of tropical cyclone radial mean temperature and water vapor profiles is carried out using the GPS RO retrievals which are colocated with global analysis profiles and available in situ radiosonde observations. The differences between the respective observations and analysis profiles are quantified and the preliminary results show that the observations collected within TCs correspond favorably with both the analysis and radiosonde profiles which are colocated. It is concluded that GPS RO observations will contribute significantly to the understanding and modeling of TC structures, especially those related to vertical variability of the atmospheric state within TCs.

  16. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Accompanying Precipitation on Infectious Diarrhea in Cyclone Landing Areas of Zhejiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengyi Deng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Zhejiang Province, located in southeastern China, is frequently hit by tropical cyclones. This study quantified the associations between infectious diarrhea and the seven tropical cyclones that landed in Zhejiang from 2005–2011 to assess the impacts of the accompanying precipitation on the studied diseases. Method: A unidirectional case-crossover study design was used to evaluate the impacts of tropical storms and typhoons on infectious diarrhea. Principal component analysis (PCA was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs. Results: For all typhoons studied, the greatest impacts on bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea were identified on lag 6 days (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.81–2.93 and lag 5 days (OR = 3.56, 95% CI: 2.98–4.25, respectively. For all tropical storms, impacts on these diseases were highest on lag 2 days (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.41–4.33 and lag 6 days (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.69–3.56, respectively. The tropical cyclone precipitation was a risk factor for both bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea when daily precipitation reached 25 mm and 50 mm with the largest OR = 3.25 (95% CI: 1.45–7.27 and OR = 3.05 (95% CI: 2.20–4.23, respectively. Conclusions: Both typhoons and tropical storms could contribute to an increase in risk of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Zhejiang. Tropical cyclone precipitation may also be a risk factor for these diseases when it reaches or is above 25 mm and 50 mm, respectively. Public health preventive and intervention measures should consider the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones.

  17. Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

    2010-05-01

    The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides

  18. Modulation of surface meteorological parameters by extratropical planetary-scale Rossby waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Niranjan Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the link between upper-tropospheric planetary-scale Rossby waves and surface meteorological parameters based on the observations made in association with the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX campaign at an extratropical site at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences, Nainital (29.45° N, 79.5° E during November–December 2011. The spectral analysis of the tropospheric wind field from radiosonde measurements indicates a predominance power of around 8 days in the upper troposphere during the observational period. An analysis of the 200 hPa meridional wind (v200 hPa anomalies from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA reanalysis shows distinct Rossby-wave-like structures over a high-altitude site in the central Himalayan region. Furthermore, the spectral analysis of global v200 hPa anomalies indicates the Rossby waves are characterized by zonal wave number 6. The amplification of the Rossby wave packets over the site leads to persistent subtropical jet stream (STJ patterns, which further affects the surface weather conditions. The propagating Rossby waves in the upper troposphere along with the undulations in the STJ create convergence and divergence regions in the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the surface meteorological parameters such as the relative humidity, wind speeds, and temperature are synchronized with the phase of the propagating Rossby waves. Moreover, the present study finds important implications for medium-range forecasting through the upper-level Rossby waves over the study region.

  19. Low NO{sub x}/SO{sub x} Burner retrofit for utility cyclone boilers. Public design report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    This Public Design Report provides available nonproprietary design information on the Low NO{sub x}SO{sub x} Burner Retrofit of Utility Cyclone Boilers project. In addition to the design aspects, the history of the project, the organization of the project, and the role of the funding parties are discussed. An overview of the Low NO{sub x}SO{sub x} (LNS) Burner, the cyclone boiler and the Southern Illinois Power Cooperative host site is presented. A detailed nonproprietary description of the individual process steps, plant systems, and resulting performance then follows. Narrative process descriptions, simplified process flow diagrams, input/output stream data, operating conditions and requirements are given for each unit. The plant demonstration program and start up provisions, the environmental considerations and control, monitoring and safety factors that are considered are also addressed.

  20. Simulation and visualization of the cyclonic storm chapala over the arabian sea: a case study

    KAUST Repository

    Theubl, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    We use the high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict the characteristics of an intense cyclone, Chapala, which formed over the Arabian Sea in October/November 2015. The implemented model consists of two-way interactive nested domains of 9 and 3km. The prediction experiment of the cyclone started on 1200UTC of 26 October 2015 to forecast its landfall and its intensity based on NCEP global model forecasting fields. The results show that the movement of Chapala is well reproduced by our model up to 72 hours, after which track errors become significant. The intensity and cloud features of the extreme event as well as the distribution of hydrometeors is well represented by the model. All the characteristics including eye and eye-wall regions, mesoscale convective systems and distribution of different hydrometers during the lifetime of Chapala are very well simulated. The model output results in several hundred gigabytes of data, we analyze and visualize these data using state of the art computational and visualization software for representing different characteristics of Chapala and to verify the accuracy of the model. We further demonstrate the usefulness of a 3D virtual reality environment and its potential importance in decision-making system development.

  1. Feasibility study of cyclone incineration treatment for radioactive solid waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Lianquan; Wang Peiyi; Ma Mingxie; Yang Liguo; Li Xiaohai; Qiu Mingcai; Zhang Xiaobin; Dong Jingling; Lu Xiaowu; Li Chuanlian; Yang Baomin

    2002-01-01

    Feasibility study of cyclone incineration treatment for radioactive solid waste is introduced. The structure of cyclone incineration furnace is defined according to test results. The results show: under given conditions of technology: i.e., inlet flowrate ≥30 m/s, total volume ≥210 Nm 3 /h, the mixed solid material with more than 40% of plastics and rubber can completely be incinerated after suitable smash and mixing. The advantages of the furnace are: simple structure, high strength of volume heat, no preheating and combustion-supporting of assistant fuel, bridging and melt leak can be avoided in the stuff. The pretreatment of solid waste is simple, and a little amount of non-combustible substance in the waste can be allowed

  2. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone simulations to microphysics parameterizations in WRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reshmi Mohan, P.; Srinivas, C.V.; Bhaskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Yesubabu, V.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) cause storm surge along coastal areas where these storms cross the coast. As major nuclear facilities are usually installed in coastal region, the surge predictions are highly important for DAE. The critical TC parameters needed in estimating storm surge are intensity (winds, central pressure and radius of maximum winds) and storm tracks. The predictions with numerical models are generally made by representing the clouds and precipitation processes using convective and microphysics parameterization. At high spatial resolutions (1-3Km) microphysics can act as cloud resolving NWP model to explicitly resolve the convective precipitation without using convection schemes. Recent simulation studies using WRF on severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms and hurricanes indicated large sensitivity of predicted rainfall and hurricane tracks to microphysics due to variation in temperature and pressure gradients which generate winds that determine the storm track. In the present study the sensitivity of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to different microphysics schemes has been conducted

  3. Performance of cylindrical-conical cyclones with different geometrical configurations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.D.A.M. Santana

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The present work is a continuation of a study of the influence of geometric characteristics on the performance of reverse-flow cylindrical-conical cyclones. After studying the behavior of the pressure drop in previous work (Arnosti et al., 1998, here performance in terms of collection efficiency in the removal of particulate material is addressed. The independent variables considered in this study were inlet gas velocity (three velocities and the following dimensions of the cyclone: the cylindrical section (three heights and internal height of the gas exit duct (three heights. The tests were performed using an 3³ experimental design. Analysis of the results for overall efficiency was carried out using response surfaces and the statistical parameters were estimated from linear regression.

  4. Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aberson, Sim David

    In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible

  5. Effects on stratospheric moistening by rates of change of aerosol optical depth and ozone due to solar activity in extra-tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, U.; Maitra, A.

    2014-11-01

    The solar-induced changes in ozone and aerosol optical depth have relative effects on stratospheric moistening at upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Wavelet-based multi-scale principal component analysis technique has been applied to de-noise component of quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation from ozone and aerosol optical depth variations. Rate of change of aerosol optical depth sharply increases indicating a positive gradient whereas rate of change of ozone sharply decreases indicating a negative gradient with solar activity during the years 2004-2010. It is also observed that with increase of rate of change of aerosol optical depth, there is a sharp increase of stratospheric moistening caused by enhanced deep convection. On the contrary, with the increase of stratospheric moistening, there is a sharp decrease of rate of change of ozone resulting in a cross-over between the two parameters. An increase in aerosol optical depth may cause a significant increase in the gradient of vertical temperature profile, as well as formation of cloud condensation nuclei, clouds and hence rainfall. This may lead to formation of strong convective system in the atmosphere that is essential for vertical transfer of water vapour in the tropics percolating tropical tropopause layer and depleting stratospheric ozone in the extra-tropics.

  6. Numerical modeling of wind waves in the Black Sea generated by atmospheric cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomin, V. V.

    2017-09-01

    The influence of the translation speed and intensity of atmospheric cyclones on surface wind waves in the Black Sea is investigated by using tightly-coupled model SWAN+ADCIRC. It is shown that the wave field has a spatial asymmetry, which depends on the velocity and intensity of the cyclone. The region of maximum waves is formed to the right of the direction of the cyclone motion. Speedier cyclones generate wind waves of lower height. The largest waves are generated at cyclonic translation speed of 7-9 m/s. This effect is due to the coincidence of the characteristic values of the group velocity of the dominant wind waves in the deep-water part of the Black Sea with the cyclone translation speed.

  7. Evaluation of cyclone geometry and its influence on performance parameters by computational fluid dynamics (CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Martignoni

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Cyclone models have been used without relevant modifications for more than a century. Most of the attention has been focused on finding new methods to improve performance parameters. Recently, some studies were conducted to improve equipment performance by evaluating geometric effects on projects. In this work, the effect of cyclone geometry was studied through the creation of a symmetrical inlet and a volute scroll outlet section in an experimental cyclone and comparison to an ordinary single tangential inlet. The study was performed for gas-solid flow, based on an experimental study available in the literature, where a conventional cyclone model was used. Numerical experiments were performed by using CFX 5.7.1. The axial and tangential velocity components were evaluated using RSM and LES turbulence models. Results showed that these new designs can improve the cyclone performance parameters significantly and very interesting details were found on cyclone fluid dynamics properties using RSM and LES.

  8. Design of A Cyclone Separator Using Approximation Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Bong-Su; Choi, Ji-Won; Lee, Kwon-Hee

    2017-12-01

    A Separator is a device installed in industrial applications to separate mixed objects. The separator of interest in this research is a cyclone type, which is used to separate a steam-brine mixture in a geothermal plant. The most important performance of the cyclone separator is the collection efficiency. The collection efficiency in this study is predicted by performing the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis. This research defines six shape design variables to maximize the collection efficiency. Thus, the collection efficiency is set up as the objective function in optimization process. Since the CFD analysis requires a lot of calculation time, it is impossible to obtain the optimal solution by linking the gradient-based optimization algorithm. Thus, two approximation methods are introduced to obtain an optimum design. In this process, an L18 orthogonal array is adopted as a DOE method, and kriging interpolation method is adopted to generate the metamodel for the collection efficiency. Based on the 18 analysis results, the relative importance of each variable to the collection efficiency is obtained through the ANOVA (analysis of variance). The final design is suggested considering the results obtained from two optimization methods. The fluid flow analysis of the cyclone separator is conducted by using the commercial CFD software, ANSYS-CFX.

  9. Regional model simulation of the North Atlantic cyclone "Caroline" and comparisons with satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Keup-Thiel

    Full Text Available An individual regional model simulation of cyclone "Caroline" has been carried out to study water cycle components over the North Atlantic Ocean. The uncertainties associated with quantitative estimates of the water cycle components are highlighted by a comparison of the model results with SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager satellite data.

    The vertically integrated water vapor of the REgional MOdel REMO is in good agreement with the SSM/I satellite data. The simulation results for other water budget components like the vertically integrated liquid water content and precipitation compare also reasonably well within the frontal system. However, the high precipitation rate in the cold air outbreak on the backside of the cold front derived from SSM/I satellite data is generally underestimated by REMO. This results in a considerable deficit of the total precipitation amount accumulated for the cyclone "Caroline". While REMO simulates 24.3 108 m3 h-1 for 09:00 UTC, the total areal precipitation from SSM/I satellite data amounts to 54.7 08 m3 h-1.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (precipitation; mesoscale meteorology – Radio science (remote sensing

  10. Regional model simulation of the North Atlantic cyclone "Caroline" and comparisons with satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Keup-Thiel

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available An individual regional model simulation of cyclone "Caroline" has been carried out to study water cycle components over the North Atlantic Ocean. The uncertainties associated with quantitative estimates of the water cycle components are highlighted by a comparison of the model results with SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager satellite data. The vertically integrated water vapor of the REgional MOdel REMO is in good agreement with the SSM/I satellite data. The simulation results for other water budget components like the vertically integrated liquid water content and precipitation compare also reasonably well within the frontal system. However, the high precipitation rate in the cold air outbreak on the backside of the cold front derived from SSM/I satellite data is generally underestimated by REMO. This results in a considerable deficit of the total precipitation amount accumulated for the cyclone "Caroline". While REMO simulates 24.3 108 m3 h-1 for 09:00 UTC, the total areal precipitation from SSM/I satellite data amounts to 54.7 08 m3 h-1.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (precipitation; mesoscale meteorology – Radio science (remote sensing

  11. The development of an ultra-low-emission gas-fired cyclonic combustor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Tian-yu; Khinkis, M.J.; Coppin, W.P.

    1991-01-01

    A gas-fired cyclonic combustor has been developed for relatively low-temperature direct-air heating applications that require ultra-low pollutant emissions. High-lean premixed combustion with a flame stabilizer is adopted to achieve ultra-low emissions and high turndown operation. On the basis of analytical studies and cold modeling, a 350-kW test combustor was designed and successfully tested. Experimental results obtained using natural gas and ambient air demonstrated that the test combustor can operate steadily at high excess air up to 80% to 100% over a large turndown range up to 40:1. At design operating conditions, NO x emissions as low as 0.6 vppm and CO and total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions below 3 vppm were achieved. Over the full operating range, NO x emissions from 0.3 to 1.0 vppm and CO and THC emissions below 4 vppm were demonstrated. In all tests, concentrations of NO 2 were less than 40% of the total NO x emissions -- lower than the level of NO 2 emissions from combustion processes required for good indoor air quality (0.5 vppm). This paper presents the concept of high-lean premixed ultra-low-emission cyclonic combustion, design specifications for the combustion system, and the major experimental results, including flame stability, emissions, and turndown performance. 13 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab

  12. Change in the tropical cyclone activity around Korea by the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

    2017-12-01

    Correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Korea and the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) was analyzed over the last 37 years. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between the two variables in non-ENSO years, after the 8 years with the highest EASMI (high EASMI years) and the 8 years with the lowest EASMI (low EASMI years) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In high EASMI years, in the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. In addition, a monsoon trough strengthened more eastward, and TCs in high EASMI years occurred more in east ward over the western North Pacific.

  13. Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

    2018-05-01

    Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during 2008-2016. Average existence probability of the predicted ACs was >0.9 at lead times of ≤3.5 days. Average central position error of the predicted ACs was less than half of the mean radius of the 10 ACs (469.1 km) at lead times of 2.5-4.5 days. Average central pressure error of the predicted ACs was 5.5-10.7 hPa at such lead times. Therefore, the operational ensemble prediction systems generally predict the position of ACs within 469.1 km 2.5-4.5 days before they mature. The forecast skill for the extraordinary ACs is lower than that for midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere but similar to that in the Southern Hemisphere.

  14. Spatial Distributions of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes by Intensity and Size Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Todd W. Moore; Nicholas J. Sokol; Robert A. Blume

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that make landfall often spawn tornadoes. Previous studies have shown that these tornadoes are not uniformly distributed in the United States or in the tropical cyclone environment. They show that tornadoes tend to occur relatively close to the coastline and that they tend to cluster to the east-of-center in the tropical cyclone environment, particularly in the northeast and east-of-center quadrants. This study contributes to these studies by analyzing the spatial distributi...

  15. Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

  16. The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

    1999-01-01

    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

  17. Assessing the impact of cyclones in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Judith; Bricheno, Lucy; Chowdury, Shahad; Rahman, Munsur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Kay, Susan; Caesar, John

    2014-05-01

    We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and densely populated. Cyclones cause damage due to the high wind speed and also the ensuing storm surge, which causes inundation and salinity intrusion into agricultural land and contaminates fresh water. The world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, protects the coast of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna (BGM) delta from these cyclonic storms but mangroves are themselves vulnerable to cyclone damage, as in 2007 when ~36% of the mangrove area was severely damaged leading to further losses of livelihood. We apply an idealised cyclone model and use the winds and pressures from this model to drive a storm surge model in the Bay of Bengal, in order to examine the impact of the intensity, track speed and landfall of the cyclones in terms of surge and inundation. The model is tested by reproducing the track and intensity of Cyclone Sidr of 2007. We also examine the projected future climate from the South Asia Regional Climate Model to understand how tropical cyclones may change under global warming and assess how this may impact the BGM Delta over the 21st century.

  18. Physical and biological response of the Arabian sea to tropical cyclone Phyan and its implications

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Byju, P.; PrasannaKumar, S.

    regional climate shift since 1995, which is accompanied by a five-fold increase in the occurrence of the most intense cyclones. Even though cyclones are known for their destruction of life and property on the land, they often augment life in the ocean...-red and microwave frequencies provide a real- time recognition and diagnosis of tropical cyclone development. But ocean colour sensors are obscured by clouds, which are often present during and after the passage of a cyclone, therefore it can capture only a very...

  19. Do tropical cyclones shape shorebird habitat patterns? Biogeoclimatology of snowy plovers in Florida.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones.

  20. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2018-04-01

    A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

  1. Cyclone hazard proneness of districts of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tems of the earth atmosphere coupled system and are extreme weather ... intense low pressure systems (India Meteorological. Department (IMD) .... which is responsible for the structural damage due to TC. ..... It fails to distinguish the more prone districts .... References. BMTPC 2006 Vulnerability Atlas of India: Earthquake,.

  2. Large-Scale Influences on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Karl (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, K.; Bosart, L. F.

    2012-12-01

    The events leading up to the genesis of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Karl (2010) provides a unique opportunity to examine the continuing problem of understanding tropical cyclogenesis. The PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign allowed for detailed investigation of the tropical disturbance that served as the precursor to TC Karl as it progressed westward through the Caribbean Sea. The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of the pre-Karl disturbance using both common synoptic-scale analyses as well as statistically-based equatorial wave analyses, focusing on where these analyses complement and enhance each other. One of the major factors in the initial spin-up of the pre-Karl tropical disturbance is a surge of southerly and westerly winds from northern South America on 8-10 September 2010. As the surge entered the Caribbean on 9 September, it aided in the formation of a nearly closed earth-relative cyclonic circulation near the southern Leeward Islands. This circulation weakened late on 10 September and remained weak through 13 September before increased organization led to TC genesis on 14 September. This southerly wind surge can be traced to a well-defined surge of anomalously cold air and enhanced southerly winds originating in the lee of the Argentinian Andes over a week prior. While the temperature anomalies wash out prior to reaching the equator, anomalous low-level winds progress into Colombia and Venezuela, where topography aids in turning the southerly winds eastward. An investigation of the pre-Karl environment utilizing wavenumber-frequency filtering techniques also suggests that the initial spin-up of pre-Karl can be associated with the active phase of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). The observed formation of the nearly closed cyclonic circulation on 10 September is well timed with the passage of anomalous westerly winds along and behind the convectively active phase of a CCKW. These

  3. Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, H. Michael; Blakeslee, Richard; Conover, Helen; Hall, John; He, Yubin; Regner, Kathryn

    2009-01-01

    Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

  4. Parameter Uncertainty on AGCM-simulated Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, F.

    2015-12-01

    This work studies the parameter uncertainty on tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) using the Reed-Jablonowski TC test case, which is illustrated in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). It examines the impact from 24 parameters across the physical parameterization schemes that represent the convection, turbulence, precipitation and cloud processes in AGCMs. The one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis method first quantifies their relative importance on TC simulations and identifies the key parameters to the six different TC characteristics: intensity, precipitation, longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF), shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP). Then, 8 physical parameters are chosen and perturbed using the Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. The comparison between OAT ensemble run and LHS ensemble run shows that the simulated TC intensity is mainly affected by the parcel fractional mass entrainment rate in Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme. The nonlinear interactive effect among different physical parameters is negligible on simulated TC intensity. In contrast, this nonlinear interactive effect plays a significant role in other simulated tropical cyclone characteristics (precipitation, LWCF, SWCF, LWP and IWP) and greatly enlarge their simulated uncertainties. The statistical emulator Extended Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (EMARS) is applied to characterize the response functions for nonlinear effect. Last, we find that the intensity uncertainty caused by physical parameters is in a degree comparable to uncertainty caused by model structure (e.g. grid) and initial conditions (e.g. sea surface temperature, atmospheric moisture). These findings suggest the importance of using the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) method to revisit tropical cyclone prediction under climate change scenario.

  5. CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds(C3Winds) A New Wind Observing System to Study Mesoscale Cloud Dynamics and Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D. L.; Kelly, M.A.; Yee, J.-H.; Boldt, J.; Demajistre, R.; Reynolds, E. L.; Tripoli, G. J.; Oman, L. D.; Prive, N.; Heidinger, A. K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds (C3Winds) is a NASA Earth Venture Instrument (EV-I) concept with the primary objective to better understand mesoscale dynamics and their structures in severe weather systems. With potential catastrophic damage and loss of life, strong extratropical and tropical cyclones (ETCs and TCs) have profound three-dimensional impacts on the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic structures, producing complex cloud precipitation patterns, strong low-level winds, extensive tropopause folds, and intense stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Employing a compact, stereo IR-visible imaging technique from two formation-flying CubeSats, C3Winds seeks to measure and map high-resolution (2 km) cloud motion vectors (CMVs) and cloud geometric height (CGH) accurately by tracking cloud features within 5-15 min. Complementary to lidar wind observations from space, the high-resolution wind fields from C3Winds will allow detailed investigations on strong low-level wind formation in an occluded ETC development, structural variations of TC inner-core rotation, and impacts of tropopause folding events on tropospheric ozone and air quality. Together with scatterometer ocean surface winds, C3Winds will provide a more comprehensive depiction of atmosphere-boundary-layer dynamics and interactive processes. Built upon mature imaging technologies and long history of stereoscopic remote sensing, C3Winds provides an innovative, cost-effective solution to global wind observations with potential of increased diurnal sampling via CubeSat constellation.

  6. Wave characteristics off Visakhapatnam coast during a cyclone

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; AshokKumar, K.; Raju, N.S.N.

    CURRENT SCIENC E, VOL. 86, NO. 11, 10 JUNE 2004 *For correspondence. (e - mail: sanil@darya.nio.org) Wave characteristics off Visakhapatnam coast du r ing a cyclone V. Sanil Kumar*, K. Ashok Kumar and N. S. N. Raju Ocean Engineering Division.... Wave period The variation of average wave period ( T 02 ), period corr e- sponding to maximum wave height ( T H max ) and wave p e- riod corresponding to maximum spectral energy ( T p ) during the observation period are shown in Figure 4. Du r- i ng...

  7. New Design of Blade Untwisting Device of Cyclone Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. I. Misiulia

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new design of a blade untwisting device where blades are considered as a main element of the device. A profile of the blades corresponds to a circular arch. An inlet angle of  the blades is determined by stream aerodynamics in an exhaust pipe, and an exit angle is determined by rectilinear gas motion. Optimum geometrical parameters of the untwisting device have been determined and its application allows to reduce a pressure drop in the ЦН-15 cyclones by 28–30 % while screw-blade untwisting device recovers only 19–20 % of energy.

  8. Observing and Modelling the HighWater Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaoli; Gharineiat, Zahra; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the capability of observing tropical cyclones using satellite radar altimetry. Two representative cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Larry (March 2006) in the northeast Australian coastal area are selected based also on available tide gauge sea level measurements. It is sho...

  9. Observation-Based Estimates of Surface Cooling Inhibition by Heavy Rainfall under Tropical Cyclones

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jourdain, N; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Madec, G.; Menkes, C.E.; Vincent, E.M.; Jullien, E.; Barnier, B.

    Tropical cyclones drive intense ocean vertical mixing that explains most of the surface cooling observed in their wake (the "cold wake"). The influence of cyclonic rainfall on the cold wake at a global scale over the 2002-09 period is investigated...

  10. The Effects of Cyclone Hudah on the Forest of Masoala Peninsula ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cyclones regularly impact the east coast of Madagascar but almost nothing is known about their effects on Malagasy ecosystems. On 2 April 2000 the powerful winds of Cyclone Hudah struck the humid forests in the northern part of Masoala Peninsula. An analysis of satellite images revealed that 3 % of the forest here was ...

  11. Operational results and development of the E.C.R. sources and the injector into CYCLONE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bol, J.L.; Jongen, Y.; Lacroix, M.; Mathy, F.; Ryckewaert, G.

    1985-01-01

    A large superconducting ECR-source (ECREVIS) has been producing high charge state ions up to Xe 27+ for injection into CYCLONE and as a stand alone source for atomic physics for over two years now. An improved analysing system has been installed increasing greatly the acceptance without harming the resolution. Operational results of transmission and realistic charge state distributions are reported. The design of a more compact ECR-source, to be called OCTOPUS and using water cooled copper solenoids, an open permanent magnet octupole structure and an iron yoke is presented. This source will replace ECREVIS and it is expected to have better performance and to be more reliable and economical to operate

  12. Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Shahinoor Rahman

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard deviational ellipse is useful to analyze the shape and the length of a tropical cyclone (TC track. Cyclone intensity at each six-hour position is used as the weight at that location. Only named cyclones in the Indian Ocean since 1981 are considered for this study. The K-means clustering algorithm is used to cluster Indian Ocean cyclones based on the five parameters: x-y coordinates of the mean center, variances along zonal and meridional directions, and covariance between zonal and meridional locations of the cyclone track. Four clusters are identified across the Indian Ocean; among them, only one cluster is in the North Indian Ocean (NIO and the rest of them are in the South Indian Ocean (SIO. Other characteristics associated with each cluster, such as wind speed, lifespan, track length, track orientation, seasonality, landfall, category during landfall, total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE, and cyclone trend, are analyzed and discussed. Cyclone frequency and energy of Cluster 4 (in the NIO have been following a linear increasing trend. Cluster 4 also has a higher number of landfall cyclones compared to other clusters. Cluster 2, located in the middle of the SIO, is characterized by the long track, high intensity, long lifespan, and high accumulated energy. Sea surface temperature (SST and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR associated with genesis of TCs are also examined in each cluster. Cyclone genesis is co-located with the negative OLR anomaly and the positive SST anomaly. Localized SST anomalies are associated with clusters in the SIO; however, TC geneses of Cluster 4 are associated with SSTA all over the Indian Ocean (IO.

  13. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

  14. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  15. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in a general circulation model and observational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.; Bengtsson, L.

    1994-01-01

    There are various phenomena on different spatial and temporal scales contributing to the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics. One may notice higher-frequency baroclinic disturbances affecting the day-to-day variability of the atmosphere. But one finds also low-frequency fluctuations on a typical time scale of a few weeks. Blocking anticyclones are probably the most prominent example of such features. These fluctuations on different scales, however, are influencing each other, in particular the temporal evolution and spatial distribution. There has been observational work on various phenomena contributing to the intra-seasonal variability for a long time. In the last decade or so, however, with the increasing importance of General Circulation Models there have been some studies dealing with the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by these models

  16. Sensitivity study of surface wind flow of a limited area model simulating the extratropical storm Delta affecting the Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Marrero

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain. The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW. A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, definition or not of nested grids, horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels. The Factor Separation Method was applied in order to identify the major model sensitivity parameters under this unusual meteorological situation. Results associated to percentage changes relatives to a control run simulation demonstrated that boundary layer and surface layer schemes, horizontal resolutions, hydrostaticity option and nesting grid activation were the model configuration parameters with the greatest impact on the 48 h maximum 10 m horizontal wind speed solution.

  17. Balanced thermal structure of an intensifying tropical cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Raymond

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study tests the hypothesis that the formation of a virtual potential temperature dipole in a developing tropical cyclone is a balanced response to the growth of an associated mid-level vortex. The dipole is collocated with the vortex and consists of a warm anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cool anomaly in the lower troposphere. An axisymmetric approximation to the observed potential vorticity distribution is inverted subject to non-linear balance for two successive days during the formation of typhoon Nuri in 2008. Good agreement is found between the area-averaged actual and balanced virtual temperature dipoles in these two cases. Furthermore, a strong correlation exists between the degree of bottom-heaviness of convective mass flux profiles and the strength of the balanced virtual potential temperature dipole. Since the dipole is balanced, it cannot be an immediate artefact of the existing convection, but rather is an inherent feature of the developing cyclone. Cloud resolving numerical modelling suggests that the dipole temperature anomaly actually promotes more bottom-heavy convective mass flux profiles, as observed. Such profiles are associated with low-level mass and vorticity convergence via mass continuity and the circulation theorem, resulting in low-level spin-up. The present work thus supports the hypothesis that the low-level spin-up associated with tropical cyclogenesis is made possible by the thermodynamic environment created by a strong mid-level vortex.

  18. Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar: A wake up call

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lateef Fatimah

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In early May 2008, Cyclone Nargis (CN tore across the southern coastal regions of Myanmar, pushing a tidal surge through villages and rice paddies. The almost 12 foot wall of water and wind speed of over 200 km/hr killed tens of thousands of people and left hundreds of thousands homeless and vulnerable to injury and disease. Out of the 7.35 million living in the affected townships of Labutta, Bogale, Pyinsalu, Yangon, and many more, approximately 2.4 million were affected. Overall, more than 50 townships were affected by this most devastating cyclone in Asia since 1991. The Delta region, Myanmar′s Rice Bowl, was severely damaged. The low-lying villages were submerged. There was widespread destruction of homes, critical infrastructure of the villages, roads, ferries, water, fuel, and electricity supplies. Our team from Singapore (called Team Singapore reached out to at least 10 different villages during the time we were there. We ran mobile clinics daily at several locations and these operated from warehouses, temples, schools or any make shift buildings. The journey to the remote villages may take between 1 and 2 hours by road or by boat. We also ran mobile clinics at the township hospital, the rural healthcare centers, and an orphanage.

  19. A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

  20. Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin

    2017-12-01

    Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

  1. The impact of environmental inertial stability on the secondary circulation of axisymmetric tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, M. E.; Chavas, D. R.

    2017-12-01

    In f-plane numerical simulations and analytical theory, tropical cyclones completely recycle their exhausted outflow air back into the boundary layer. This low-angular momentum air must experience cyclonic torque at the sea surface for cyclone to reach equilibrium. On Earth, however, it is not clear that tropical cyclones recycle all of the outflow air in a closed secondary circulation, and strong asymmetric outflow-jet interactions suggest that much of the air may be permanently evacuated from the storm over its lifetime. The fraction of outflow air that is returned to the near-storm boundary layer is in part a function of the environmental inertial stability, which controls the size and strength of the upper anticyclone. We run a suite of idealized axisymmetric tropical cyclone simulations at constant latitude while varying the outer domain's inertial stability profile. Fixing the latitude allows the gradient wind balance of the storm core to remain constant except for changes due to the far environment. By varying both the outer inertial stability and its location with respect to the Rossby radius of deformation, we show how the tropical cyclone's area-of-influence is controlled by the nature and strength of the upper anticyclone. Parcel tracking additionally demonstrates the likelihood of outflow air parcels to be quickly re-consumed by the secondary circulation as a function of inertial stability. These experiments demonstrate the sensitivity of the tropical cyclone's secondary circulation, typically assumed to be closed, to the dynamics of the far environment.

  2. Coupled climate model simulations of Mediterranean winter cyclones and large-scale flow patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ziv

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to evaluate the ability of global, coupled climate models to reproduce the synoptic regime of the Mediterranean Basin. The output of simulations of the 9 models included in the IPCC CMIP3 effort is compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalyzed data for the period 1961–1990. The study examined the spatial distribution of cyclone occurrence, the mean Mediterranean upper- and lower-level troughs, the inter-annual variation and trend in the occurrence of the Mediterranean cyclones, and the main large-scale circulation patterns, represented by rotated EOFs of 500 hPa and sea level pressure. The models reproduce successfully the two maxima in cyclone density in the Mediterranean and their locations, the location of the average upper- and lower-level troughs, the relative inter-annual variation in cyclone occurrences and the structure of the four leading large scale EOFs. The main discrepancy is the models' underestimation of the cyclone density in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part. The models' skill in reproducing the cyclone distribution is found correlated with their spatial resolution, especially in the vertical. The current improvement in model spatial resolution suggests that their ability to reproduce the Mediterranean cyclones would be improved as well.

  3. Research of the Aerodynamic Parameters in a Special Cyclone with Secondary Inlets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandras Chlebnikovas

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Special cyclone – gas treatment device which can be applied to remove the fine particulate matter bigger than 2 micrometres from aggressive gas flow at a temperature of 50–145 °C and a relative humidity of more than 95% and can be achieved the cleaning efficiency over 90%. Cyclone work is based on centrifugal forces and the resulting additional filtration process operation. Cyclone structure equipped with primary and secondary gas flow inflows through which gas dispersed flow is supplied parallel to all channels of the cyclone. Analysed modified multi-channel cyclone can be effectively treated from fine particulate matter, during the cleaning of aggressive gas flow an adhesion/cohesion phenomena could be reduced. Research of aerodynamic parameters it’s the first step of studies to determine the optimal case, at the average gas flow velocity in cyclone channels were 8, 12 and 16 m/s, the gas flow dynamics dependencies into cyclone were determined.

  4. A Reassessment of the Integrated Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Surface Chlorophyll in the Western Subtropical North Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-28

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  5. Aerosol midlatitude cyclone indirect effects in observations and high-resolution simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. McCoy

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol–cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC. Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP. When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6–8.3 Wm−2 in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60 % of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

  6. The short-term impacts of a cyclone on seagrass communities in Southwest Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté-Laurin, Marie-Claude; Benbow, Sophie; Erzini, Karim

    2017-04-01

    Cyclones are large-scale disturbances with highly destructive potential in coastal ecosystems. On February 22, 2013, a powerful tropical cyclone made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar, a region which is infrequently hit by such extreme weather events coming from the Mozambique Channel. Seagrass ecosystems, which provide valuable ecosystems services to local communities, are especially vulnerable because they thrive in shallow waters. The impact of Cyclone Haruna on seagrass diversity, height and coverage and associated fish diversity, abundance and biomass was assessed in 3 sites near Andavadoaka (22°07‧S, 43°23‧E) before and after the event using fish underwater visual census, video-transects, and seagrass quadrats. The cyclone caused a significant loss in seagrass cover at all 3 sites. Thalassia hemprichii and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most affected species. Andavadoaka beach, the most exposed site, which was also subject to human use and was most fragmented, suffered the largest negative effects of the cyclone. Cyclone Haruna was not found to significantly affect fish assemblages, which are highly mobile organisms able to use a diversity of niches and adjacent habitats after seagrass fragmentation. Extensive sampling and longer time-scale studies would be needed to fully evaluate the cyclone impact on communities of seagrass and fish, and track potential recovery in seagrass coverage. The intensity and destructive potential of cyclones is expected to increase with global warming, which is of concern for developing countries that encompass most of the world's seagrass beds. This study provided a unique and key opportunity to monitor immediate impacts of an extreme disturbance in a region where cyclones rarely hit coastal ecosystems and where local populations remain highly dependent on seagrass meadows.

  7. Disaster, Deprivation and Death: Large but delayed infant mortality in the wake of Filipino tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are some of the most disastrous and damaging of climate events, and estimates of their destructive potential abound in the natural and social sciences. Nonetheless, there have been few systematic estimates of cyclones' impact on children's health. This is concerning because cyclones leave in their wake a swath of asset losses and economic deprivation, both known to be strong drivers of poor health outcomes among children. In this paper we provide a household-level estimate of the effect of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in the Philippines, a country with one of the most active cyclone climatologies in the world. We reconstruct historical cyclones with detailed spatial and temporal resolution, allowing us to estimate the multi-year effects of cyclones on individuals living in specific locations. We combine the cyclone reconstruction with woman-level fertility and mortality data from four waves of the Filipino Demographic and Health Survey, providing birth histories for over 55,000 women. In multiple regressions that control for year and region fixed effects as well as intra-annual climate variation, we find that there is a pronounced and robust increase in female infant mortality among poor families in the 12-24 months after storms hit. The estimated mortality rate among this demographic subgroup is much larger than official mortality rates reported by the Filipino government immediately after storms, implying that much of a cyclone's human cost arrives well after the storm has passed. We find that high infant mortality rates are associated with declines in poor families' income and expenditures, including consumption of food and medical services, suggesting that the mechanism by which these deaths are effected may be economic deprivation. These results indicate that a major health and welfare impact of storms has been thus far overlooked, but may be easily prevented through appropriately targeted income support policies.

  8. Exploratory experimental and theoretical studies of cyclone gasification of wood powder

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fredriksson, Christian

    1999-11-01

    This thesis describes an exploratory experimental and theoretical study of gasification of wood powder in a cyclone gasifier. The generated gas could be used to operate a gas turbine in a combined cycle power plant. The objective has been to develop the understanding of cyclone gasification by experimental studies of the performance of a cyclone designed in principle as a separation cyclone and by comparisons between the experimental results and theoretical predictions. The experiments were carried out with commercial Swedish wood powder fuels, injected with air or steam/air mixture through two diametrically opposite tangential inlets and gasified at atmospheric pressure in cyclones of two different configurations with a volume of about 0.034 m{sup 3}. The studies show that stable gasification of this fuel can be obtained for a specific fuel feeding rate of about 5 MW/m{sup 3} cyclone volume for equivalence ratios above 0.15 and that the equivalence ratio had to be kept below about 0.4 in order to avoid material temperatures above 950 deg C. A cyclone with a short outlet pipe, designed as a conventional separation cyclone was found to give lower char conversion than a modified cyclone with a long outlet pipe. The heating value of the gas was found to be approximately 4.5 MJ/kg. The dust load in the product gas was measured to between 1000 and 2500 mg/Nm{sup 3}. It was possible to separate at least 40-60% of the potassium and 60-90% of the sodium supplied with the wood. The alkali that left the cyclone with the product gas appear to be in solid or melted phase in the unseparated char particles and consequently not vaporised during gasification. As the K and Na were assumed to remain within the particles during gasification, it was concluded that to reduce the amount of alkali metals in the product gas it would be necessary to improve the particle separation efficiency. The results of the theoretical modelling, using the existing models in the commercial software CFX

  9. Experimental study on combustion of biomass micron fuel (BMF) in cyclone furnace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Siyi; Xiao Bo; Hu Zhiquan; Liu Shiming; He Maoyun

    2010-01-01

    Based on biomass micron fuel (BMF) with particle size less than 250 μm, a cyclone combustion concept was presented and a lab-scale cyclone furnace was designed to evaluate the feasibility. The influences of equivalence ration (ER) and particle size of BMF on combustion performance were studied, as well as temperature distribution in the combustion chamber. The results show that BMF combustion in the cyclone furnace is reliable, with rational temperature distribution inside furnace hearth, lower CO emission, soot concentration and C content in ashes. As ER being 1.2, the temperature in the chamber is maximized up to 1200 deg. C. Smaller particles results in better combustion performances.

  10. Wind data collected by a fixed-wing aircraft in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone over the south China coastal waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, P.W.; Hon, K.K. [Hong Kong Observatory, Kowloon, HK (China); Foster, S. [Aventech Research Inc., Ontario (Canada)

    2011-06-15

    The fixed-wing aircraft of Government Flying Service of the Hong Kong Government has recently equipped with an upgraded meteorological measuring system. This system provides horizontal wind velocity components up to 90 m/s at an accuracy of 0.5 m/s for straight and level flight. Besides search and rescue (SAR) missions, this aircraft is also used for windshear and turbulence investigation flights at the Hong Kong International Airport. In a SAR operation in July 2009, the aircraft flew close to the eye of tropical cyclone Molave, when it was located at about 200 km to the east of Hong Kong over the south China coastal waters. The aircraft provided valuable information about the winds in association with Molave because aircraft reconnaissance for tropical cyclones is not carried out for South China Sea. Based on the aircraft measurements, the 1-second mean wind reached the maximum value of 88 knots at a height of 200 m above mean sea level. Assuming a power law with altitude with an exponent of 0.11 over open waters, the corresponding 1-second mean wind at a height of 10 m would be about 63 knots. The maximum 10-minute mean wind reached 69 knots with an average height of 260 m above mean sea level. The corresponding mean at 10 m would be about 48 knots. As such, based on the aircraft measurements (in which the aircraft might not fly into the areas of maximum winds associated with the tropical cyclone), Molave had at least a strength of tropical storm to severe tropical storm at the times of the measurements. Nowadays, the determination of the intensity of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea is normally based on remote sensing data only (e.g. radar and satellite observations). To the knowledge of the authors, the results presented in the paper are the first time that direct measurements of the winds near the centre of a tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea are made with an aircraft. Apart from the mean wind and gust, other properties

  11. Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Yang, R.; Yang, C.; Yu, M.; Hu, F.; Jiang, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI) of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM) network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications.

  12. Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications.

  13. Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrigan, Adam D; Puotinen, Marji

    2014-05-01

    Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Climate and Weather Analysis of Afghanistan Thunderstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    dry, continental polar (cP) air. The subtropical jet (STJ) and Extratropical storm track tend to lie south of Kabul. Mean high SFC temperatures...March-April-May (MAM). Note that AFG lies to the east of a broad trough centered over southern Europe and to the west of broad ridge centered over... Extratropical Cyclone FAR False Alarm Rate FOB Forward Operating Base FRN Forecaster Reference Notebook GFS Global Forecast System GoA

  15. A Study on the Impact of Observation Assimilation on the Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones JAL and THANE Using 3DVAR

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2013-12-08

    In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite remote sensing observations (Oceansat-2 winds, MODIS temperature/humidity profiles) is studied on the simulation of two tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region of the Indian Ocean using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) technique. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used to simulate the severe cyclone JAL: 5–8 November 2010 and the very severe cyclone THANE: 27–30 December 2011 with a double nested domain configuration and with a horizontal resolution of 27 × 9 km. Five numerical experiments are conducted for each cyclone. In the control run (CTL) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system analysis and forecasts available at 50 km resolution were used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second (VARAWS), third (VARSCAT), fourth (VARMODIS) and fifth (VARALL) experiments, the conventional surface observations, Oceansat-2 ocean surface wind vectors, temperature and humidity profiles of MODIS, and all observations were respectively used for assimilation. Results indicate meager impact with surface observations, and relatively higher impact with scatterometer wind data in the case of the JAL cyclone, and with MODIS temperature and humidity profiles in the case of THANE for the simulation of intensity and track parameters. These relative impacts are related to the area coverage of scatterometer winds and MODIS profiles in the respective storms, and are confirmed by the overall better results obtained with assimilation of all observations in both the cases. The improvements in track prediction are mainly contributed by the assimilation of scatterometer wind vector data, which reduced errors in the initial position and size of the cyclone vortices. The errors are reduced by 25, 21, 38 % in vector track position, and by 57, 36, 39 % in intensity, at 24, 48, 72

  16. Spatial Distributions of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes by Intensity and Size Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd W. Moore

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones that make landfall often spawn tornadoes. Previous studies have shown that these tornadoes are not uniformly distributed in the United States or in the tropical cyclone environment. They show that tornadoes tend to occur relatively close to the coastline and that they tend to cluster to the east-of-center in the tropical cyclone environment, particularly in the northeast and east-of-center quadrants. This study contributes to these studies by analyzing the spatial distributions of tropical cyclone tornadoes by intensity, path length, path width, and the damage potential index. The analyses confirm that most tornadoes occur relatively close to the coastline, but show that stronger tornadoes with larger paths are disproportionately common farther inland. They also confirm that the highest amount of activity is located within the northeast and east-of-center quadrants and show that the most potentially damaging tornadoes cluster in a sub region near the intersection of these two quadrants.

  17. Predicting Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy According to the Powell/Reinhold Scale

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A method of predicting the destructive capacity of a tropical cyclone based on a new Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP)...

  18. Coastal circulation along the central west coast of India during cyclone Phyan: measurements and numerical simulations

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    VinodKumar, K.; Aboobacker, V.M.; Saheed, P.P.; Vethamony, P.

    Measurements and numerical simulations carried out off Mumbai coast for the period 22 October to 22 November 2009 showed significant variations in water level and currents during cyclone Phyan. Changes in the meridional component of the current...

  19. Strongest Tropical cyclones: 1980-2009: A 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Strongest Tropical Cyclones: 1980-2009 poster - a 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data. This poster depicts a series of 5 degree grids where within...

  20. Beach changes at Visakhapatnam due to the cyclone of May 1979

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Rao, B.P.

    The impact of the May, 1979 cyclonic storm on Visakhapatnam beach, India and the observations made on beach profiles, waves and littoral currents prior to and during the storm are discussed. In general, at Visakhapatnam beach accretion trend starts...

  1. Can we predict the frequency of cyclones over Bay of Bengal during October-December?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    ., 2013) were reported earlier. Balachandran and Geetha (2012) reported the statistical method to predict the cyclone days over north Indian ocean during the post-monsoon (October-December) season using the data from 19712000 and tested for the period...

  2. Bottom-Up Determination of Air-Sea Momentum Exchange Under a Major Tropical Cyclone

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jarosz, Ewa; Mitchell, Douglas A; Wang, David W; Teague, William J

    2007-01-01

    .... Using current observations recorded during a major tropical cyclone, we have estimated this momentum transfer from the ocean side of the air-sea interface, and we discuss it in terms of the drag coefficient...

  3. El Nino and La Nina Effects on Tropical Cyclones: The Mechanisms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ford, Bruce

    2000-01-01

    The effects that El Nino and La Nina events exert on western North Pacific tropical cyclones, and the physical mechanisms involved were examined using best track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning...

  4. Sensitivity of simulated cyclone Gonu intensity and track to variety of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Alimohammadi

    2018-04-06

    Apr 6, 2018 ... USD of financial losses and 78 human casualties were caused by cyclone ... scheme (vortex replacement strategy in the initial- ization fields), made AHW .... and out of these two, Charnock formulation is a default scheme in ...

  5. A Review of Parametric Descriptions of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Wave Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian R. Young

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available More than three decades of observations of tropical cyclone wind and wave fields have resulted in a detailed understanding of wave-growth dynamics, although details of the physics are still lacking. These observations are presented in a consistent manner, which provides the basis to be able to characterize the full wave spectrum in a parametric form throughout tropical cyclones. The data clearly shows that an extended fetch model can be used to represent the maximum significant wave height in such storms. The shape stabilizing influence of nonlinear interactions means that the spectral shape is remarkably similar to fetch-limited cases. As such, the tropical cyclone spectrum can also be described by using well-known parametric models. A detailed process is described to parameterize the wave spectrum at any point in a tropical cyclone.

  6. Objective Identification of Environmental Patterns Related to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sanabia, Elizabeth R

    2006-01-01

    The increase in skill of numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecast techniques have led to significant improvements in the accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts at ranges beyond 72 hours...

  7. Theoretical analysis and experimental evaluation of small cyclone separator to remove fine particulate matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Han Gyul; Kim, Hong Seok [Seoul Nat' l Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-01-15

    A cyclone separator has been widely used in various industrial processes for removing fine particulate matter because it is easy to fabricate, cost effective, and adaptable to extremely harsh conditions. However, owing to the complex flow field in cyclones, a complete understanding of the detailed mechanisms of particulate removal has not yet been gained. In this study, a theoretical analysis was performed for calculating the collection efficiency and cut off size in cyclones by taking into account the effects of geometrical and flow parameters. The collection efficiency and cut off size values predicted by the theoretical model showed good agreement with experimental measurements for particles with a diameter of 0.5-30{mu}m. It was also revealed that the surface friction, along with the flow and geometrical parameters, has a significant effect on the cyclone performance.

  8. Variability in Global-Scale Circulations and Their Impacts on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rosencrans, Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    ... favorable or unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Favorable impacts on tropical Atlantic circulation characteristics are defined by an increase in low-level relative vorticity, a decrease in westerly vertical wind shear, and increased convection...

  9. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2017-10-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  10. Atmospheric water distribution in cyclones as seen with Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometers (SMMR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsaros, K. B.; Mcmurdie, L. A.

    1983-01-01

    Passive microwave measurements are used to study the distribution of atmospheric water in midlatitude cyclones. The integrated water vapor, integrated liquid water, and rainfall rate are deduced from the brightness temperatures at microwave frequencies measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMRR) flown on both the Seasat and Nimbus 7 satellites. The practical application of locating fronts by the cyclone moisture pattern over oceans is shown, and the relationship between the quantity of coastal rainfall and atmospheric water content is explored.

  11. The relationships between precipitation, convective cloud and tropical cyclone intensity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Z.; Wu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Using 16 years precipitation, brightness temperature (IR BT) data and tropical cyclone (TC) information, this study explores the relationship between precipitation, convective cloud and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the Western North Pacific Ocean. It is found that TC intensity has positive relation with TC precipitation. TC precipitation increases with increased TC intensity. Based on the different phase of diurnal cycle, convective TC clouds were divided into very cold deep convective clouds (IR BTs<208K) and cold high clouds (208K

  12. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  13. A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, Eric A.; Bell, Michael M.; Elsberry, Russell L.; Velden, Chris S.; Cecil, Dan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind ?eld balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the ?rst 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.

  14. Measurement of characteristics of solid flow in the cyclone separators with fiber optical probe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Shaohua; Li Yan; Li Jinjing; Yang Shi; Yang Hairui; Zhang Hai; Lu Junfu; Yue Guangxi

    2009-01-01

    In some applications, e.g. circulating fluidized beds (CFB), cyclones are usually operated at high solid loadings. Under high inlet solid concentration, most of the particles are collected at the wall and form a dense particle spiral band because of high separation efficiency. As a result, gas-solid reactions should occur mostly in the near-wall region. To understand the gas-solid reaction mechanism in the cyclone, an experimental study was conducted in a plexiglass CFB cold apparatus, with a riser of 0.2m I.D. and 5m high, and a standard Lapple cyclone. Fiber optical probe was used to measure the characteristics of solid flow in the cyclone, including particle velocity and volumetric solid concentration, especially in the near-wall region of the cyclone. Based on the experiment results, the combustion of carbon particles in the cyclone of a CFB boiler was estimated with group combustion theory. The calculated results show that combustion effectiveness factor ηeff of near-wall particle cloud is smaller than 1/25, which means the combustion rate of a carbon particle in the near-wall region is greatly restricted by other particles in the cloud.

  15. Numerical simulation of a cyclone used as an inlet device of a gravitational separator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moraes, Carlos Alberto Capela [Centro de Pesquisas da PETROBRAS (CENPES), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Tecnologia de Processamento Primario], E-mail: capela@petrobras.com.br; Oliveira Junior, Joao Americo Aguirre; Almeida, Lucilla Coelho de [Engineering Simulation and Scientific Software (ESSS), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil)], E-mails: joao.aguirre@esss.com.br, lucilla@esss.com.br

    2011-04-15

    This study presents the numerical simulation of the flow inside a gravitational separator to evaluate the influence of each internal device in the separation efficiency. In this first stage, the cyclone - located at the vessel entrance, known as the primary separation - internal flow is investigated. The flow inside cyclones presents rather complex and challenging characteristics, such as: streamlines with high curvature, intense force fields, interaction between primary and secondary flows and anisotropic turbulence. A three-dimensional fluid dynamics study is presented of a gas-liquid two-phase flow in a cyclone. The two-phase flow was modeled using an Eulerian, isothermal approach. The main conclusion of these simulations is the phase separation inside the proposed initial design does not occur by centrifugal effect, as an internal rotating flow is not established, due to an ineffective inlet design. Based on the lack of this expected centrifugal field for a cyclone, it can be concluded that the device does not behave as such. As a result, the device efficiency is limited and possibly small droplets will be carried by the gas stream. Therefore, changes to the cyclone inlet geometry were proposed to better achieve the cyclone effect to increase the separation efficiency. (author)

  16. Structures and Evolutions of Explosive Cyclones over the Northwestern and Northeastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shuqin; Fu, Gang

    2018-06-01

    In this study, the structures and evolutions of moderate (MO) explosive cyclones (ECs) over the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) and Northeastern Pacific (NEP) are investigated and compared using composite analysis with cyclone-relative coordinates. Final Operational Global Analysis data gathered during the cold seasons (October-April) of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 are used. The results indicate that MO NWP ECs have strong baroclinicity and abundant latent heat release at low levels and strong upper-level forcing, which favors explosive cyclogenesis. The rapid development of MO NEP ECs results from their interaction with a northern cyclone and a large middle-level advection of cyclonic vorticity. The structural differences between MO NWP ECs and MO NEP ECs are significant. This results from their specific large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environments. MO NWP ECs usually develop rapidly in the east and southeast of the Japan Islands; the intrusion of cold dry air from the East Asian continent leads to strong baroclinicity, and the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension provides abundant latent heat release at low levels. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream supplies strong upper-level forcing. While MO NEP ECs mainly occur over the NEP, the low-level baroclinicity, upper-level jet stream, and warm ocean currents are relatively weaker. The merged cyclone associated with a strong middle-level trough transports large cyclonic vorticity to MO NEP ECs, which favors their rapid development.

  17. Environmental Composites for Bomb Cyclones of the Western North Atlantic in Reanalysis, 1948-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, R.; Sheridan, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    "Bomb" cyclones represent a small subset of mid-latitude cyclones characterized by rapid intensification and frequently are associated with extreme weather conditions along the eastern coast of North America. Like other extreme phenomena, bomb cyclone predictions are prone to error leading to inadequate or untimely hazard warnings. The rare nature of bomb cyclones and the uniqueness of their evolutions has made it difficult for researchers to make meaningful generalizations on bomb cyclone events. This paper describes bomb cyclone climatology for the western North Atlantic, using data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for 1948-2016, and uses a synoptic climatological analysis to relate these bombs to their associated atmospheric environments. A self-organizing map (SOM) of 300-hPa geopotential height tendency is created to partition the regional atmospheric environment. Thermodynamic fields are contrasted by each 300-hPa geopotential height tendency pattern for both bomb and non-bomb events in composite difference maps. The SOM patterns most significantly associated with western North Atlantic bomb cyclogenesis are characterized by both strongly and weakly negative height tendencies along the eastern United States. In both cases, these patterns exhibit strong meridional flow, a distinction marked by the weakening and breaking down of the polar vortex in the boreal Winter. The composite maps for each pattern show the mean differences in low-mid level ascent and near surface thermodynamics for bomb environments contrasted with non-bomb environments, resulting in diverse spatiotemporal distributions of bombs in the western North Atlantic.

  18. Extratropical Influence of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind on Water Recycling Rate Over Oceans and Coastal Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hua; Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    Water vapor and precipitation are two important parameters confining the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere and over the ocean surface. In the extratropical areas, due to variations of midlatitude storm tracks and subtropical jetstreams, water vapor and precipitation have large variability. Recently, a concept of water recycling rate defined previously by Chahine et al. (GEWEX NEWS, August, 1997) has drawn increasing attention. The recycling rate of moisture is calculated as the ratio of precipitation to total precipitable water (its inverse is the water residence time). In this paper, using multi-sensor spacebased measurements we will study the role of sea surface temperature and ocean surface wind in determining the water recycling rate over oceans and coastal lands. Response of water recycling rate in midlatitudes to the El Nino event will also be discussed. Sea surface temperature data are derived from satellite observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) blended with in situ measurements, available for the period 1982-1998. Global sea surface wind observations are obtained from spaceborne scatterometers aboard on the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS1 and 2), available for the period 1991-1998. Global total precipitable water provided by the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) is available for the period 1988-1995. Global monthly mean precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is available for the period 1987-1998.

  19. Impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruihua Kang

    Full Text Available Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011.Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs and the 95% confidence intervals (CI.There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12 and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76, 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58 and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69, respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48, 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44, 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37 and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81, respectively.All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population.

  20. Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

  1. Morphologic Response and Sediment Redistribution of the Beach and Nearshore Sand Bars due to Extratropical and Tropical Storm Forcing: a Spatial and Temporal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miselis, J. L.; McNinch, J. E.

    2005-05-01

    Shore-oblique bars and associated exposures of an underlying geologic stratum in the nearshore have been documented along the US East Coast and have been linked to shoreline erosional hotspots. While earlier studies acknowledged that the bedforms responded to extratropical and tropical storms, neither quantified the extent of sediment redistribution after the events. An approach that encompasses actual volume measurements across the nearshore-beach down to a non-sandy stratum and quantifies the response of the beach and the nearshore to the same hydrodynamic forcing will enable a better understanding of the exchange of sediment between the two regions. Total nearshore sediment volume has been shown to be a first-order contributor to the behavior of the shoreline. This volumetric approach is employed in the analysis of morphological changes and the redistribution of sediment in the nearshore and beach following storms. A regional survey from 2002 provides the initial, fair-weather morphologic state of the nearshore (1.5-15m water depth) spanning 40 km of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Four small-scale surveys were conducted in subsequent years, focusing on four 1-km2 regions within the initial 2002 survey area. The smaller regions were selected on the basis of the morphological state observed during the 2002 survey and historical shoreline behavior. Data were collected in March 2003 following a Northeaster; in May 2003 following an extended period of fair weather conditions; in November 2003 following Hurricane Isabel; and finally, in June 2004 after another period of fair weather. A swath bathymetry system was used to collect bathymetry and side scan sonar (acoustic backscatter) and a high-resolution chirp sub-bottom profiler imaged the shallow sub-surface geology of the nearshore. In addition, RTK-GPS was used to map the sub-aerial beach at each 1-km2 site from the toe of the dune to the water line for the May 2003, November 2003, and June 2004 sampling periods

  2. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Volume 121 Issue 2 April 2012 pp 273-285. Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium range rainfall forecast system for Indian region .... 123 Issue 7 October 2014 pp 1637-1652. Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation.

  3. Cyclonic entrainment of preconditioned shelf waters into a frontal eddy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, J. D.; Macdonald, H.; Baird, M. E.; Humphries, J.; Roughan, M.; Suthers, I. M.

    2015-02-01

    The volume transport of nutrient-rich continental shelf water into a cyclonic frontal eddy (entrainment) was examined from satellite observations, a Slocum glider and numerical simulation outputs. Within the frontal eddy, parcels of water with temperature/salinity signatures of the continental shelf (18-19°C and >35.5, respectively) were recorded. The distribution of patches of shelf water observed within the eddy was consistent with the spiral pattern shown within the numerical simulations. A numerical dye tracer experiment showed that the surface waters (≤50 m depth) of the frontal eddy are almost entirely (≥95%) shelf waters. Particle tracking experiments showed that water was drawn into the eddy from over 4° of latitude (30-34.5°S). Consistent with the glider observations, the modeled particles entrained into the eddy sunk relative to their initial position. Particles released south of 33°S, where the waters are cooler and denser, sunk 34 m deeper than their release position. Distance to the shelf was a critical factor in determining the volume of shelf water entrained into the eddy. Entrainment reduced to 0.23 Sv when the eddy was furthest from the shelf, compared to 0.61 Sv when the eddy was within 10 km of the shelf. From a biological perspective, quantifying the entrainment of shelf water into frontal eddies is important, as it is thought to play a significant role in providing an offshore nursery habitat for coastally spawned larval fish.

  4. Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

  5. Operation experience with the CYCLONE-OCTOPUS combination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bol, J.-L.; Chevalier, A.; Jongen, Y.; Lacroix, M.; Mathy, F.; Ryckewaert, G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last year (till September 1986) the CYCLONE-OCTOPUS combination has been operated almost 85 % of the total possible time for nuclear physics, isotope production, radiobiology and neutrontherapy and technological applications. A new ECR-source for multicharged heavy ions using a Sm-Co permanent magnet octupole (OCTOPUS) was constructed at the C.R.C. in Louvain-la- Neuve during 1985. The source was put into full operation with the cyclotron by the end of October 1985. A minor problem of short term instability of the beam intensity was solved by changing the main stage microwave feed from radial to axial. During restart after this modification, a hole was melted, by accident due to a human error, in the octupole envelope, causing a water leak. Except from this, the new source operated continuously and reliably up to now. The performance level, which is comparable now to that of ECREVIS, is still preliminary and should be improved by future development. (author)

  6. Application of Deep Learning to Detect Precursors of Tropical Cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, D.; Nakano, M.; Sugiyama, D.; Uchida, S.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect significant damage to human society. Predicting TC generation as soon as possible is important issue in both academic and social perspectives. In the present work, we investigate the probability of predicting TCs seven days prior using deep neural networks. The training data is produced from 30-year cloud resolving global atmospheric simulation (NICAM) with 14 km horizontal resolution (Kodama et al., 2015). We employed a TCs tracking algorithm (Sugi et al., 2002; Nakano et al., 2015) to NICAM simulation data in order to generate supervised cloud images (horizontal sizes are 800-1,000km). We generate approximately one million images of "TCs (include their precursors)" and "not TCs (low pressure clouds)". We generate ten types of image classifier based on 2-dimensional convolutional neural network, includes four convolutional layers, three pooling layers and two fully connected layers. The final predicted results are obtained by these ensemble mean values. Generated classifiers are applied to untrained global simulation data (four million test images). As a result, we succeeded in predicting the precursors of TCs seven and five days before their formation with a Recall of 88.6% and 89.6% (Precision is 11.4%), respectively.

  7. Physical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavas, Daniel R; Reed, Kevin A; Knaff, John A

    2017-11-08

    The relationship between the two common measures of tropical cyclone intensity, the central pressure deficit and the peak near-surface wind speed, is a long-standing problem in tropical meteorology that has been approximated empirically yet lacks physical understanding. Here we provide theoretical grounding for this relationship. We first demonstrate that the central pressure deficit is highly predictable from the low-level wind field via gradient wind balance. We then show that this relationship reduces to a dependence on two velocity scales: the maximum azimuthal-mean azimuthal wind speed and half the product of the Coriolis parameter and outer storm size. This simple theory is found to hold across a hierarchy of models spanning reduced-complexity and Earth-like global simulations and observations. Thus, the central pressure deficit is an intensity measure that combines maximum wind speed, storm size, and background rotation rate. This work has significant implications for both fundamental understanding and risk analysis, including why the central pressure better explains historical economic damages than does maximum wind speed.

  8. Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. T. Chang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterised the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of the annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4 to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus, little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen during an average 9.5 day yr−1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon months. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha−1 yr−1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

  9. Tropical-Extratropical Exchange Based on Argo Profiles and Ship-Based Observations Near the Western Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, D.; Li, B.; Yang, L.

    2014-12-01

    The tropical-extratropical exchange in the northwestern Pacific Ocean is studied using the absolute geostrophic currents based on Argo Profiles and the observations of the western boundary currents (WBCs) during two cruises in the winters of 2010 and 2012. The absolute geostrophic currents are calculated using the P-vector method for the period of 2004 through 2011. The transport of the geostrophic currents is compared with the Sverdrup theory and found to differ significantly in several locations. Analyses have shown that errors of wind stress estimation cannot account for all of the differences. The largest differences are found in the area, where nonlinear activities are vigorous. It is, therefore, suggested that the linear dynamics of the Sverdrup theory is deficient in explaining the geostrophic transport of the tropical northwestern Pacific Ocean. Previous studies suggest recharge and discharge of the tropical Pacific Ocean heat content through the interior circulation of the North Pacific Ocean, based on the Sverdrup theory, and that the WBCs play the role opposite to the interior ocean recharge and discharge anomalies. Using ocean observations from two cruises in a La Niña winter and a normal winter, it is suggested that the Kuroshio transport decreases significantly and the Mindanao Current transport increases significantly at the peak of 2010 La Niña, opposite to the prediction of existing theory. The anomalies of the western boundary current transport are found much larger than those of the meridional circulation in the entire interior of the North Pacific Ocean, the dynamics of which are suggested to be associated with the Kelvin wave propagation around the Philippine islands. The results suggest that the WBCs dominate the interannual recharge and discharge of the western Pacific warm pool during the 2010 La Niña.

  10. The Intense Arctic Cyclone of Early August 2012: A Dynamically Driven Cyclogenesis Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Turchioe, A.; Adamchcik, E.

    2013-12-01

    A series of surface cyclones formed along an anomalously strong northeast-southwest oriented baroclinic zone over north-central Russia on 1-3 August 2012. These cyclones moved northeastward, intensified slowly, and crossed the coast of Russia by 4 August. The last cyclone in the series strengthened rapidly as it moved poleward over the Arctic Ocean on 5-6 August, achieved a minimum sea level pressure of life cycle of this Arctic Ocean cyclone from a multiscale perspective. Anticyclonic wave breaking in the upper troposphere across Russia in late July and very early August 2012 created an anomalously strong baroclinic zone across northern Asia between 60-80°N. During 1-5 August, negative 850 hPa temperature anomalies between -2° and -4°C were found poleward of 70-75°N between 90°E and the Dateline over the Arctic Ocean while positive 850 hPa temperature anomalies of 8-9°C were found over eastern Russia near 60°N. The associated anomalously strong 850 hPa meridional temperature gradient of ~10°C (2000 km)-1 helped to sustain an anomalously strong (20-30 m s-1) 250 hPa jet along the coast of northeastern Russia. A local wind speed maximum (~50 m s-1 ) embedded in this 250 hPa jet corridor contributed to the extreme intensity of the trailing (last) surface cyclone in the series. Although the dominant surface cyclone in the series of surface cyclones intensified most rapidly over the relatively ice free Arctic Ocean, the impact of surface heat and moisture fluxes appeared to be secondary to jet-driven dynamical processes in the deepening process. Anomalously high observed 1000-500 hPa thickness values between 564-570 dam, precipitable water values between 30-40 mm, and CAPE values between 500-1000 J kg-1 in the warm sector of the developing cyclone over north-central Russia were indicative of the enhanced baroclinicity and instability in the cyclone warm sector and the ability of lower tropospheric warm-air advection to sustain deep ascent in the intensifying

  11. Experimental Research into the Two-Level Cylindrical Cyclone with a Different Number of Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Baliukas

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The multichannel two-level cyclone has been designed for separating solid particles from airflow and built at the Laboratory of Environmental Protection Technologies of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. The conducted research is aimed at determining air flow distribution at two levels and channels of the multichannel cyclone. The multifunctional meter Testo-400 and the dynamic Pitot tube have been used form easuring air flow rates in the channels. The obtained results show that the equal volume of air gets into two levels installed inside the cyclone, and rates are distributed equally in the channels of these levels. The maximum air flow rate is recorded in the first channel and occurs when half-rings are set in such positions so that 75% of air flow returns to the previous channel. The biggest aerodynamic resistance is 1660 Pa and has been recorded in the cyclone having eight channels under air flow distribution ratio 75/25. The highest air purification efficiency has been observed in the two-level six-channel cyclone under air flow distribution ratio 75/25. The effectiveness of separating granite particles is 92.1% and that of wood particles – 91.1 when the particles are up to 20 μm in diameter.

  12. Impact of tropical cyclone Matmo on mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jie; Ji, Diansheng; Hou, Chawei; Guo, Kai; Ji, Ling

    2017-12-01

    The Bohai Sea is a low-lying semi-enclosed sea area that is linked to the Yellow Sea via the Bohai straits (mixed zone). Its off shore seabed is shallow, which makes it vulnerable to serious marine meteorological disasters associated with the northward passage of Pacifi c tropical cyclones. Analyses on data of remote sensing and buoy of the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai seas indicate that all the wind speed, signifi cant wave height, and salinity (SAL) increased, sea surface temperature decreased, and wind energy density changed considerably during the passage of tropical cyclone Matmo on July 25, 2014. It was found that the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas was caused by the tropical cyclone. Furthermore, it was found that the tropical cyclone transported the northern Yellow Sea cold water mass (NYSCWM) into the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas. The NYSCWM has direct infl uence on both the aquaculture and the ecological environment of the region. Therefore, further research is needed to establish the mechanism behind the formation of the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone, and to determine the infl uence of tropical cyclones on the NYSCWM.

  13. Education as a Determinant of Response to Cyclone Warnings: Evidence from Coastal Zones in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Sharma

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Education is often considered a means for enhancing adaptive capacity, based on the consideration that formal education is likely to improve the ability of individuals to evaluate risks and respond to warning information. We explore the relation between the level and nature of education and enhanced ability to respond to tropical cyclone risk. We make a distinction between formal school-based education and nonformal education in the form of traditional knowledge of environmental precursors and conditions that may be associated with tropical cyclone occurrence. We evaluate two possible routes through which education could lead to enhanced ability to respond to tropical cyclone risk; first, education, both formal and nonformal, may lead to a better ability to access, understand, and interpret warning information and hence lead to an appropriate response to the warning; and second, formal education may be associated with greater income levels and socioeconomic status and thus with greater resources for evacuating in response to cyclone warning. We find that the hypotheses regarding the link between formal education and adaptive capacity are actually not well supported by empirical data. On the other hand nonformal education in the form of traditional knowledge for predicting cyclones based on environmental precursors emerged as a significant determinant of the ability to understand and interpret warning information and provides a strong case for preserving and promoting a hazard-specific traditional knowledge base along with formal education.

  14. On the Angular Momentum Loss of Tropical Cyclones: An f-Plane Approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hyun-Gyu; Cheong, Hyeong-Bin; Kim, Won-Ho

    2018-02-01

    The angular momentum for ideal axisymmetric tropical cyclones on the f-plane is investigated with a focus on the total-volume integrated quantity. Budget analysis of the momentum equation at cylindrical coordinates shows that a tropical cyclone loses angular momentum during its development and mature stages due to the dynamical difference between the viscous inward-flow near the surface and the angular momentum conserving outward-flow aloft. The total relative angular momentum of a tropical cyclone, as a result, can be negative (i.e., implying anticyclonic rotation as a whole) despite intense cyclonic wind in the tropospheric layers. This anticyclonic rotation was measured in terms of the super-rotation ratio, the ratio of total relative angular momentum to the planetary angular momentum. Simulations with the numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.4.1 was found to be in favor of the theoretical angular-momentum budget analysis. It was revealed in the numerical simulations that the super-rotation ratio was negative, indicating a sub-rotation, as was predicted by analysis. The sub-rotation ratio was found to be less than one percent for typical tropical cyclones. To show the angular momentum decrease even in the decaying stage, numerical simulations where the thermal forcing by sea surface temperature switched off in the mature stage were carried out. In support of the angular momentum budget analysis, the results indicated that the angular momentum also decreases for a while soon after the forcing was eliminated.

  15. Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Saini; Hu, Fuyu; Jaeger, Carlo

    2016-02-01

    Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

  17. An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

  18. Modelling the Multiphase Flow in Dense Medium Cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiwei Chu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Dense medium cyclone (DMC is widely used in mineral industry to separate solids by density. It is simple in design but the flow pattern within it is complex due to the size and density distributions of the feed and process medium solids, and the turbulent vortex formed. Recently, the so-called combined computational fluid dynamics (CFD and discrete element method (DEM (CFD-DEM was extended from two-phase flow to model the flow in DMCs at the University of New South Wales (UNSW. In the CFD-DEM model, the flow of coal particles is modelled by DEM and that of medium flow by CFD, allowing consideration of medium-coal mutual interaction and particle-particle collisions. In the DEM model, Newton's laws of motion are applied to individual particles, and in the CFD model the local-averaged Navier-Stokes equations combined with the volume of fluid (VOF and mixture multiphase flow models are solved. The application to the DMC studies requires intensive computational effort. Therefore, various simplified versions have been proposed, corresponding to the approaches such as Lagrangian particle tracking (LPT method where dilute phase flow is assumed so that the interaction between particles can be ignored, one-way coupling where the effect of particle flow on fluid flow is ignored, and the use of the concept of parcel particles whose properties are empirically determined. In this paper, the previous works on the modelling of DMCs at UNSW are summarized and the features and applicability of the models used are discussed.

  19. Effect of Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering on Tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q.; Moore, J.; Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    Variation in tropical cyclone (TC) number and intensity is driven in part by changes in the thermodynamics that can be defined by ocean and atmospheric variables. Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and ventilation index (VI) are combinations of potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, midlevel entropy deficit, and absolute vorticity that quantify thermodynamic forcing of TC activity under changed climates, and can be calculated from climate model output. Here we use five CMIP5 models running the RCP45 experiment the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) stratospheric aerosol injection G4 experiment to calculate the two indices over the 2020 to 2069 period. Globally, GPI under G4 is lower than under RCP45, though both have a slight increasing trend. Spatial patterns in the relative effectiveness of geoengineering show reductions in TC in all models in the North Atlantic basin, and northern Indian Ocean in all except NorESM1-M. In the North Pacific, most models also show relative reductions under G4. VI generally coincide with the GPI patterns. Most models project Potential intensity and Relative Humidity to be the dominant variable to affect genesis potential. Changes in vertical wind shear and vorticity are small with scatter across different models and ocean basins. We find that tropopause temperature maybe as important as sea surface temperature in effecting TC genesis. Thus stratospheric aerosol geoengineering impacts on potential intensity and hence TC intensity are reasonably consistent, but probably underestimated by statistical forecasts of Tropical North Atlantic hurricane activity driven by sea surface temperatures alone. However the impacts of geoengineering on other ocean basins are more difficult to assess, and require more complete understanding of their driving parameters under present day climates. Furthermore, the possible effects of stratospheric injection on chemical reactions in the stratosphere, such as ozone, are

  20. Tropical Cyclones as a Driver of Global Sediment Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Cohen, S.

    2017-12-01

    The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually. The sediment supplied to the coastal zone is of significant importance for a variety of reasons, for example in acting as a vector for nutrients as well as in supplying sediment to coastal landforms such as deltas and beaches that can buffer those landforms from erosion and flooding. A greater understanding of the factors governing sediment flux to the oceans is therefore a key research gap. The non-linear relationship between river discharge and sediment flux implies that the global sediment flux may be disproportionately driven by large floods. Indeed, in our recent empirical research we have demonstrated that changes in the track locations, frequency and intensity of tropical storms in recent decades exert a significant control on the sediment flux emanating from the Mekong River. Since other large rivers potentially affected by tropical storms are known to make a significant contribution to the global sediment flux, this raises the question of the extent to which such storms play a significant role in controlling sediment loads at the global scale. In this paper we address that question by employing a global hydrological model (WBMsed) in order to predict runoff and sediment load forced by recent historical climate scenarios `with' and `without' tropical cyclones. We compare the two scenarios to (i) make the first estimate of the global contribution of sediment load forced by tropical storms; (ii) evaluate how that contribution has varied in recent decades and to (iii) explore variations in tropical-storm driven sediment loads in selected major river basins that are significantly affected by such storms.

  1. The Long Term Features of Tropical Cyclones Nearby Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yueh-Shyuan; Lee, Cheng-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is affected by several factors. The variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been examined in the past decade. Previous studies showed that TC activity (such as TC number, intensity and tracks) has multiscale variation or affected by natural oscillation of different scales. However, most of these studies focused mainly on the entire WNP. Very few studies examined the variability of annual TC track or the variability of TC number in the area nearby Taiwan, which caused severe economic loss and life damage to Taiwan in the typhoon season. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the variation of TC activity nearby Taiwan to address its long term features, and also the possible relationship with the associated flow patterns. Preliminary results of wavelet analysis showed that the TC number nearby Taiwan during 1970-2014 had multiscale variations. The following analysis focused on the scale about 4- and 11-year signals, in the targeted area of 118o-125oE, 20o-27oN. The positive phases of both scale 4 and scale 11 showed a tendency of TC tracks toward Taiwan area, while the negative phases showed a lower tendency toward Taiwan. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied on the 4-yr and the 11-yr filtered 500-hPa wind fields and geopotential heights. Results showed that the 4-yr signal was mostly dominated by the 500-hPa U- and V-wind fields, suggesting that the TC track patterns were affected mainly by the midlevel steering flow. On the other hand, the 11-yr signal was mostly dominated by the 500-hPa U-wind field and geopotential anomalies, indicating that the main cause of the difference in TC occurrence nearby Taiwan was the location of TC formation.

  2. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  3. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  4. Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

  5. Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, Hamish A. [Monash University, Monash Weather and Climate, School of Mathematical Sciences, Clayton, VIC (Australia); Camargo, Suzana J.; Kim, Daehyun [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969-2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three in the South Indian Ocean, three in the Australian Region, and one in the South Pacific Ocean. Large-scale environmental variables related to TC genesis in each cluster are explored, including sea surface temperature, low-level relative vorticity, deep-layer vertical wind shear, outgoing longwave radiation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Composite maps, constructed 2 days prior to genesis, show some of these to be significant precursors to TC formation - most prominently, westerly wind anomalies equatorward of the main development regions. Clusters are also evaluated with respect to their genesis location, seasonality, mean peak intensity, track duration, landfall location, and intensity at landfall. ENSO is found to play a significant role in modulating annual frequency and mean genesis location in three of the seven clusters (two in the South Indian Ocean and one in the Pacific). The ENSO-modulating effect on genesis frequency is caused primarily by changes in low-level zonal flow between the equator and 10 S, and associated relative vorticity changes in the main development regions. ENSO also has a significant effect on mean genesis location in three clusters, with TCs forming further equatorward (poleward) during El Nino (La Nina) in addition to large shifts in mean longitude. The MJO has a strong influence on TC genesis in all clusters, though the amount modulation is found to be sensitive to the definition of the MJO. (orig.)

  6. Examining the controlling factors on Southern Ocean clouds and their radiative effects in the context of midlatitude weather systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelleher, M. K.; Grise, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Clouds and their associated radiative effects are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the present generation of global climate models. One region where model biases are especially large is over the Southern Ocean, where many models systematically underestimate the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects (CRE) and/or misrepresent the relationship between shortwave CRE and atmospheric dynamics. Previous research has shown that two "cloud controlling factors", estimated inversion strength (EIS) and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, are helpful in explaining the relationship between CRE and atmospheric dynamics on monthly timescales. For example, when the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet shifts poleward on monthly timescales, the high clouds and their associated longwave CRE shift poleward with the jet, consistent with a poleward shift of the storm track and the attendant vertical velocity anomalies. However, the observed changes in shortwave CRE with a poleward jet shift are small due to a trade-off between the competing effects of opposing EIS and vertical velocity anomalies. This study extends these previous findings to examine the relationship between Southern Ocean cloud controlling factors and CRE on daily timescales. On a daily timescale, the relationship of EIS and vertical velocity with CRE is more complex, due in part to the presence of transient weather systems. Composites of EIS, vertical velocity, longwave CRE, and shortwave CRE around extratropical cyclones and anticyclones are constructed to examine how the CRE anomalies vary in different sectors of midlatitude weather systems and the role that EIS and vertical velocity play in determining those anomalies. The relationships between the cloud controlling factors and CRE on daily timescales provide key insight into the underlying physical processes responsible for the relationships between midlatitude cloud controlling factors and CRE previously documented on monthly timescales.

  7. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, Jamie G. L.; Todd, Alexander D.; Blockley, Edward W.; Ridley, Jeff K.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies.

  8. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  9. Role of exposure in projected residential building cyclone risk for the Australian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Denis; Cechet, Bob; Arthur, Craig

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology to analyse the direct impact of tropical cyclone hazard on communities in northern Australia. The study focuses on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of the cyclonic wind hazard, and location. Storm surge impacts were developed using a simple relationship between intensity and storm surge height and mid-point sea-level rise projections. The impact on residential building stock of severe wind and storm surge hazards associated with IPCC climate change scenarios is considered. Changes in residential building stock, for over 500 coastal statistical local areas (SLAs) from Southeast Queensland anticlockwise to Perth, were estimated using Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections through to 2100. A Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve was derived, and the average annual cost across a 5000 year period (or 'annualised loss') was evaluated for each region. The projected population growth and the drift to coastal locations are significant elements in determining the damage associated with possible future cyclone threat.

  10. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. L. Rae

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies.

  11. Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

  12. Contrasting Chl-a responses to the tropical cyclones Thane and Phailin in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vidya, P.J.; Das, S.; ManiMurali, R.

    cyclone (8-14 October 2013), and both occurred during the post-monsoon season. The present study examined the effect of cyclone intensity difference on the chlorophyll a (Chl-a) production in the BoB. Two and seven times Chl-a enhancement was observed...

  13. North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato

  14. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    On the contrary, the cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal intensified into very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) within about 48 hr from its formation as depression. The system also experienced rapid intensification phase (intensity increased by 30 kts or more during subsequent 24 hours) during its life time and maximum ...

  15. A Long-lived Cyclone In Saturn's Atmosphere: Observations And Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rio Gaztelurrutia, Teresa; Legarreta, J.; Hueso, R.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.

    2009-09-01

    The atmospheres of the Giant Planets Jupiter and Saturn possess large numbers of atmospheric vortices. On Jupiter, anticyclones are generally long-lived structures while cyclones survive a much shorter time. A long term survey of images of Saturn atmosphere obtained by the Cassini ISS camera has revealed the presence of a long-lived cyclone in Saturn's southern hemisphere during at least four years, making this vortex the longest lived cyclone on either Jupiter or Saturn. We find that the vortex drifts following the wind profile, with changes in velocity following changes of latitude. During the four years of our survey its size remained essentially constant, and there was no other structure of comparable size at its latitude. Internal circulation is cyclonic, with a maximum velocity of 20±5 m/s and an average vorticity of 4·10-5 s-1, an order of magnitude lower than planetary vorticity, but only slightly higher than the ambient vorticity. Photometric analysis shows that the vortex is located at a slightly lower altitude than its surroundings, at an average of 10-20 mbar below adjacent clouds. Finally, EPIC simulations of the vortex that reproduce its behavior imply a Rossby deformation radius of 2000 km in the weather layer (1 - 10 bar), consistent with the size of the cyclone. The long-lifetime of this cyclonic