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Sample records for experts predict intense

  1. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  2. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  3. Rotating Machinery Predictive Maintenance Through Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sarath Kumar

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern rotating machines such as turbomachines, either produce or absorb huge amount of power. Some of the common applications are: steam turbine-generator and gas turbine-compressor-generator trains produce power and machines, such as pumps, centrifugal compressors, motors, generators, machine tool spindles, etc., are being used in industrial applications. Condition-based maintenance of rotating machinery is a common practice where the machine's condition is monitored constantly, so that timely maintenance can be done. Since modern machines are complex and the amount of data to be interpreted is huge, we need precise and fast methods in order to arrive at the best recommendations to prevent catastrophic failure and to prolong the life of the equipment. In the present work using vibration characteristics of a rotor-bearing system, the condition of a rotating machinery (electrical rotor is predicted using an off-line expert system. The analysis of the problem is carried out in an Object Oriented Programming (OOP framework using the finite element method. The expert system which is also developed in an OOP paradigm gives the type of the malfunctions, suggestions and recommendations. The system is implemented in C++.

  4. Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

  5. THE EFFECT OF MODERATE AND HIGH-INTENSITY FATIGUE ON GROUNDSTROKE ACCURACY IN EXPERT AND NON-EXPERT TENNIS PLAYERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Lyons

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Exploring the effects of fatigue on skilled performance in tennis presents a significant challenge to the researcher with respect to ecological validity. This study examined the effects of moderate and high-intensity fatigue on groundstroke accuracy in expert and non-expert tennis players. The research also explored whether the effects of fatigue are the same regardless of gender and player's achievement motivation characteristics. 13 expert (7 male, 6 female and 17 non-expert (13 male, 4 female tennis players participated in the study. Groundstroke accuracy was assessed using the modified Loughborough Tennis Skills Test. Fatigue was induced using the Loughborough Intermittent Tennis Test with moderate (70% and high-intensities (90% set as a percentage of peak heart rate (attained during a tennis-specific maximal hitting sprint test. Ratings of perceived exertion were used as an adjunct to the monitoring of heart rate. Achievement goal indicators for each player were assessed using the 2 x 2 Achievement Goals Questionnaire for Sport in an effort to examine if this personality characteristic provides insight into how players perform under moderate and high-intensity fatigue conditions. A series of mixed ANOVA's revealed significant fatigue effects on groundstroke accuracy regardless of expertise. The expert players however, maintained better groundstroke accuracy across all conditions compared to the novice players. Nevertheless, in both groups, performance following high-intensity fatigue deteriorated compared to performance at rest and performance while moderately fatigued. Groundstroke accuracy under moderate levels of fatigue was equivalent to that at rest. Fatigue effects were also similar regardless of gender. No fatigue by expertise, or fatigue by gender interactions were found. Fatigue effects were also equivalent regardless of player's achievement goal indicators. Future research is required to explore the effects of fatigue on

  6. Can human experts predict solubility better than computers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boobier, Samuel; Osbourn, Anne; Mitchell, John B O

    2017-12-13

    In this study, we design and carry out a survey, asking human experts to predict the aqueous solubility of druglike organic compounds. We investigate whether these experts, drawn largely from the pharmaceutical industry and academia, can match or exceed the predictive power of algorithms. Alongside this, we implement 10 typical machine learning algorithms on the same dataset. The best algorithm, a variety of neural network known as a multi-layer perceptron, gave an RMSE of 0.985 log S units and an R 2 of 0.706. We would not have predicted the relative success of this particular algorithm in advance. We found that the best individual human predictor generated an almost identical prediction quality with an RMSE of 0.942 log S units and an R 2 of 0.723. The collection of algorithms contained a higher proportion of reasonably good predictors, nine out of ten compared with around half of the humans. We found that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median generated excellent predictivity. While our consensus human predictor achieved very slightly better headline figures on various statistical measures, the difference between it and the consensus machine learning predictor was both small and statistically insignificant. We conclude that human experts can predict the aqueous solubility of druglike molecules essentially equally well as machine learning algorithms. We find that, for either humans or algorithms, combining individual predictions into a consensus predictor by taking their median is a powerful way of benefitting from the wisdom of crowds.

  7. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  8. Tracheotomy in the intensive care unit: guidelines from a French expert panel.

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    Trouillet, Jean Louis; Collange, Olivier; Belafia, Fouad; Blot, François; Capellier, Gilles; Cesareo, Eric; Constantin, Jean-Michel; Demoule, Alexandre; Diehl, Jean-Luc; Guinot, Pierre-Grégoire; Jegoux, Franck; L'Her, Erwan; Luyt, Charles-Edouard; Mahjoub, Yazine; Mayaux, Julien; Quintard, Hervé; Ravat, François; Vergez, Sebastien; Amour, Julien; Guillot, Max

    2018-03-15

    Tracheotomy is widely used in intensive care units, albeit with great disparities between medical teams in terms of frequency and modality. Indications and techniques are, however, associated with variable levels of evidence based on inhomogeneous or even contradictory literature. Our aim was to conduct a systematic analysis of the published data in order to provide guidelines. We present herein recommendations for the use of tracheotomy in adult critically ill patients developed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) method. These guidelines were conducted by a group of experts from the French Intensive Care Society (Société de Réanimation de Langue Française) and the French Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine (Société Francaise d'Anesthésie Réanimation) with the participation of the French Emergency Medicine Association (Société Française de Médecine d'Urgence), the French Society of Otorhinolaryngology. Sixteen experts and two coordinators agreed to consider questions concerning tracheotomy and its practical implementation. Five topics were defined: indications and contraindications for tracheotomy in intensive care, tracheotomy techniques in intensive care, modalities of tracheotomy in intensive care, management of patients undergoing tracheotomy in intensive care, and decannulation in intensive care. The summary made by the experts and the application of GRADE methodology led to the drawing up of 8 formal guidelines, 10 recommendations, and 3 treatment protocols. Among the 8 formal guidelines, 2 have a high level of proof (Grade 1+/-) and 6 a low level of proof (Grade 2+/-). For the 10 recommendations, GRADE methodology was not applicable and instead 10 expert opinions were produced.

  9. Different intensities of basketball drills affect jump shot accuracy of expert and junior players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Marcolin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background In basketball a maximum accuracy at every game intensity is required while shooting. The aim of the present study was to investigate the acute effect of three different drill intensity simulation protocols on jump shot accuracy in expert and junior basketball players. Materials & Methods Eleven expert players (age 26 ± 6 yrs, weight 86 ± 11 kg, height 192 ± 8 cm and ten junior players (age 18 ± 1 yrs, weight 75 ± 12 kg, height 184 ± 9 cm completed three series of twenty jump shots at three different levels of exertion. Counter Movement Jump (CMJ height was also measured after each series of jump shots. Exertion’s intensity was induced manipulating the basketball drills. Heart rate was measured for the whole duration of the tests while the rating of perceived exertion (RPE was collected at the end of each series of shots. Results Heart rate and rating of perceived exertion (RPE were statistically different in the three conditions for both expert and junior players. CMJ height remained almost unchanged in both groups. Jump shot accuracy decreased with increasing drills intensity both in experts and junior players. Expert players showed higher accuracy than junior players for all the three levels of exertion (83% vs 64%, p < 0.001; 75% vs 57%, p < 0.05; 76% vs 60%, p < 0.01. Moreover, for the most demanding level of exertion, experts showed a higher accuracy in the last ten shots compared to the first ten shots (82% vs 70%, p < 0.05. Discussion Experts coped better with the different exertion’s intensities, thus maintaining a higher level of performance. The introduction of technical short bouts of high-intensity sport-specific exercises into skill sessions should be proposed to improve jump shot accuracy during matches.

  10. Tracheotomy in the intensive care unit: Guidelines from a French expert panel: The French Intensive Care Society and the French Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trouillet, Jean-Louis; Collange, Olivier; Belafia, Fouad; Blot, François; Capellier, Gilles; Cesareo, Eric; Constantin, Jean-Michel; Demoule, Alexandre; Diehl, Jean-Luc; Guinot, Pierre-Grégoire; Jegoux, Franck; L'Her, Erwan; Luyt, Charles-Edouard; Mahjoub, Yazine; Mayaux, Julien; Quintard, Hervé; Ravat, François; Vergez, Sébastien; Amour, Julien; Guillot, Max

    2018-06-01

    Tracheotomy is widely used in intensive care units, albeit with great disparities between medical teams in terms of frequency and modality. Indications and techniques are, however, associated with variable levels of evidence based on inhomogeneous or even contradictory literature. Our aim was to conduct a systematic analysis of the published data in order to provide guidelines. We present herein recommendations for the use of tracheotomy in adult critically ill patients developed using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) method. These guidelines were conducted by a group of experts from the French Intensive Care Society (Société de réanimation de langue française) and the French Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine (Société francaise d'anesthésie réanimation) with the participation of the French Emergency Medicine Association (Société française de médecine d'urgence), the French Society of Otorhinolaryngology. Sixteen experts and two coordinators agreed to consider questions concerning tracheotomy and its practical implementation. Five topics were defined: indications and contraindications for tracheotomy in intensive care, tracheotomy techniques in intensive care, modalities of tracheotomy in intensive care, management of patients undergoing tracheotomy in intensive care, and decannulation in intensive care. The summary made by the experts and the application of GRADE methodology led to the drawing up of 8 formal guidelines, 10 recommendations, and 3 treatment protocols. Among the 8 formal guidelines, 2 have a high level of proof (Grade 1±) and 6 a low level of proof (Grade 2±). For the 10 recommendations, GRADE methodology was not applicable and instead 10 expert opinions were produced. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

  11. Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

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    Bijay Neupane

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

  12. Expert Consensus Contouring Guidelines for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy in Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Abraham J.; Bosch, Walter R.; Chang, Daniel T.; Hong, Theodore S.; Jabbour, Salma K.; Kleinberg, Lawrence R.; Mamon, Harvey J.; Thomas, Charles R.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective(s): Current guidelines for esophageal cancer contouring are derived from traditional 2-dimensional fields based on bony landmarks, and they do not provide sufficient anatomic detail to ensure consistent contouring for more conformal radiation therapy techniques such as intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Therefore, we convened an expert panel with the specific aim to derive contouring guidelines and generate an atlas for the clinical target volume (CTV) in esophageal or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer. Methods and Materials: Eight expert academically based gastrointestinal radiation oncologists participated. Three sample cases were chosen: a GEJ cancer, a distal esophageal cancer, and a mid-upper esophageal cancer. Uniform computed tomographic (CT) simulation datasets and accompanying diagnostic positron emission tomographic/CT images were distributed to each expert, and the expert was instructed to generate gross tumor volume (GTV) and CTV contours for each case. All contours were aggregated and subjected to quantitative analysis to assess the degree of concordance between experts and to generate draft consensus contours. The panel then refined these contours to generate the contouring atlas. Results: The κ statistics indicated substantial agreement between panelists for each of the 3 test cases. A consensus CTV atlas was generated for the 3 test cases, each representing common anatomic presentations of esophageal cancer. The panel agreed on guidelines and principles to facilitate the generalizability of the atlas to individual cases. Conclusions: This expert panel successfully reached agreement on contouring guidelines for esophageal and GEJ IMRT and generated a reference CTV atlas. This atlas will serve as a reference for IMRT contours for clinical practice and prospective trial design. Subsequent patterns of failure analyses of clinical datasets using these guidelines may require modification in the future

  13. Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

  14. Knowledge base to develop expert system prototype for predicting groundwater pollution from nitrogen fertilizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ta-oun, M.; Daud, M.; Bardaie, M.Z.; Jusop, S.

    1999-01-01

    An expert system for prediction the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater pollution potential was established by using CLIPS (NASA's Jonson Space Centre). The knowledge base could be extracted from FAO reports, ministry of agriculture and rural development Malaysia report, established literature and domain expert for preparing an expert system skeleton. An expert system was used to correlate the availability of nitrogen fertilizer with the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Peninsula Malaysia and to identify potential groundwater quality problems. An n-fertilizer groundwater pollution potential index produced b using the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution yields a more accurate screening toll for identifying potential pollution problems than by considering vulnerability alone. An expert system can predict the groundwater pollution potential under several conditions of agricultural activities and existing environments. (authors)

  15. Underwater Munitions Expert System to Predict Mobility and Burial

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-14

    for predicting the location and possible burial of underwater munitions is required to advise site managers as they plan...that region above the given UXO relative density, which is defined as the UXO density divided by the sand grain density, ( nominally 2650 g...0.0 + 2.5*dsed ; % nominal bed roughness if no burial % (Potentially in future version, ripple height

  16. Predicting Forest Regeneration in the Central Appalachians Using the REGEN Expert System

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    Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

    2011-01-01

    REGEN is an expert system designed by David Loftis to predict the future species composition of dominant and codominant stems in forest stands at the onset of stem exclusion following a proposed harvest. REGEN predictions are generated using competitive rankings for advance reproduction along with other existing stand conditions. These parameters are contained within...

  17. THE IMPACT OF MODERATE AND HIGH INTENSITY TOTAL BODY FATIGUE ON PASSING ACCURACY IN EXPERT AND NOVICE BASKETBALL PLAYERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Lyons

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the acknowledged importance of fatigue on performance in sport, ecologically sound studies investigating fatigue and its effects on sport-specific skills are surprisingly rare. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate and high intensity total body fatigue on passing accuracy in expert and novice basketball players. Ten novice basketball players (age: 23.30 ± 1.05 yrs and ten expert basketball players (age: 22.50 ± 0.41 yrs volunteered to participate in the study. Both groups performed the modified AAHPERD Basketball Passing Test under three different testing conditions: rest, moderate intensity and high intensity total body fatigue. Fatigue intensity was established using a percentage of the maximal number of squat thrusts performed by the participant in one minute. ANOVA with repeated measures revealed a significant (F 2,36 = 5.252, p = 0.01 level of fatigue by level of skill interaction. On examination of the mean scores it is clear that following high intensity total body fatigue there is a significant detriment in the passing performance of both novice and expert basketball players when compared to their resting scores. Fundamentally however, the detrimental impact of fatigue on passing performance is not as steep in the expert players compared to the novice players. The results suggest that expert or skilled players are better able to cope with both moderate and high intensity fatigue conditions and maintain a higher level of performance when compared to novice players. The findings of this research therefore, suggest the need for trainers and conditioning coaches in basketball to include moderate, but particularly high intensity exercise into their skills sessions. This specific training may enable players at all levels of the game to better cope with the demands of the game on court and maintain a higher standard of play

  18. [Main principles of rapid diagnosis and intensive care in emergency states: their realization in expert systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zislin, B D; Bazhenov, A M; Belkin, A A; Bazylev, S V; Badaev, F I; Trifonov, Iu O

    1997-01-01

    A retrospective analysis of 543 case histories over 1980-1990 in the town of Yekaterinburg and analysis of published data permitted the authors to single out the signs characterizing the most frequent syndromes requiring urgent intensive care. By either diagnostic value, these signs are distributed into main, accessory, and ruling out. An expert system has been created, making use of the productive-Freimont's approach to representing information on the basis of blurred multiplicities and ambiguous logics. The diagnosis was made by stages: first the main signs were analyzed, determining the severity of patient's status, then (after first aid was rendered) accessory and ruling out signs, which help make the diagnosis more precise. The system was tried in 231 patients, 102 of these with acute respiratory failure, 63 with acute hemodynamic insufficiency, and 66 with acute cerebral insufficiency. Primary diagnosis of the underlying syndrome was correct in 87-89% of cases, of the concomitant syndrome in 92-97%. Repeated evaluations (in 1-3 and 24 h) taking account of the time course of the symptoms and of the results of unsophisticated instrumental examinations increased the share of correct diagnoses to 92-96%.

  19. The mathematical approach to EQPS - an expert system for oil quality prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartman, J. [Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness Ziona (Israel)

    1995-05-01

    EQPS is an expert system for prediction of ageing processes in long term storage of oil products. EQPS contains a data base with detailed information on the user`s stored stocks, and a diagnostic Expert System which is used for analysis, evaluation and quality prediction of a given storage site. An extensive body of knowledge and information concerning oil products is included in the program. Petrochemical and petrobiological laboratory test results, source and product processing data, storage conditions, environmental and climatic factors, are all considered in the evaluation.

  20. Design of a Fuzzy Rule Base Expert System to Predict and Classify ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of design of a rule base expert system using fuzzy logic approach is to predict and forecast the risk level of cardiac patients to avoid sudden death. In this proposed system, uncertainty is captured using rule base and classification using fuzzy c-means clustering is discussed to overcome the risk level, ...

  1. Neural processing of emotional-intensity predicts emotion regulation choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafir, Roni; Thiruchselvam, Ravi; Suri, Gaurav; Gross, James J; Sheppes, Gal

    2016-12-01

    Emotional-intensity is a core characteristic of affective events that strongly determines how individuals choose to regulate their emotions. Our conceptual framework suggests that in high emotional-intensity situations, individuals prefer to disengage attention using distraction, which can more effectively block highly potent emotional information, as compared with engagement reappraisal, which is preferred in low emotional-intensity. However, existing supporting evidence remains indirect because prior intensity categorization of emotional stimuli was based on subjective measures that are potentially biased and only represent the endpoint of emotional-intensity processing. Accordingly, this study provides the first direct evidence for the role of online emotional-intensity processing in predicting behavioral regulatory-choices. Utilizing the high temporal resolution of event-related potentials, we evaluated online neural processing of stimuli's emotional-intensity (late positive potential, LPP) prior to regulatory-choices between distraction and reappraisal. Results showed that enhanced neural processing of intensity (enhanced LPP amplitudes) uniquely predicted (above subjective measures of intensity) increased tendency to subsequently choose distraction over reappraisal. Additionally, regulatory-choices led to adaptive consequences, demonstrated in finding that actual implementation of distraction relative to reappraisal-choice resulted in stronger attenuation of LPPs and self-reported arousal. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Prediction of response to antiretroviral therapy by human experts and by the EuResist data-driven expert system (the EVE study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zazzi, M; Kaiser, R; Sönnerborg, A; Struck, D; Altmann, A; Prosperi, M; Rosen-Zvi, M; Petroczi, A; Peres, Y; Schülter, E; Boucher, C A; Brun-Vezinet, F; Harrigan, P R; Morris, L; Obermeier, M; Perno, C-F; Phanuphak, P; Pillay, D; Shafer, R W; Vandamme, A-M; van Laethem, K; Wensing, A M J; Lengauer, T; Incardona, F

    2011-04-01

    The EuResist expert system is a novel data-driven online system for computing the probability of 8-week success for any given pair of HIV-1 genotype and combination antiretroviral therapy regimen plus optional patient information. The objective of this study was to compare the EuResist system vs. human experts (EVE) for the ability to predict response to treatment. The EuResist system was compared with 10 HIV-1 drug resistance experts for the ability to predict 8-week response to 25 treatment cases derived from the EuResist database validation data set. All current and past patient data were made available to simulate clinical practice. The experts were asked to provide a qualitative and quantitative estimate of the probability of treatment success. There were 15 treatment successes and 10 treatment failures. In the classification task, the number of mislabelled cases was six for EuResist and 6-13 for the human experts [mean±standard deviation (SD) 9.1±1.9]. The accuracy of EuResist was higher than the average for the experts (0.76 vs. 0.64, respectively). The quantitative estimates computed by EuResist were significantly correlated (Pearson r=0.695, Pexperts. However, the agreement among experts was only moderate (for the classification task, inter-rater κ=0.355; for the quantitative estimation, mean±SD coefficient of variation=55.9±22.4%). With this limited data set, the EuResist engine performed comparably to or better than human experts. The system warrants further investigation as a treatment-decision support tool in clinical practice. © 2010 British HIV Association.

  3. EKORISK project - an information system for prediction and expert evaluation of environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaimov, V.; Antonov, A.

    1993-01-01

    The aim of this project is to create an expert system for prediction, evaluation and decision making support in case of accidents. The system consists of the following modules: 1) A data base containing information about the situation - geographical and demographical data for the region of the accident as well as data about the contaminants. The data about geographic objects (boundaries, rivers, roads, towns, soils, etc.) is managed and visualized by a geographic information system (GIS), which produces multi-layer geographical maps, showing different viewpoints of the region of interest. Information about the pollutants, their use and storage, as well as data about the available resources for action in case of accidents, are stored in relational data bases which guarantee easy access, search, sorting and proper visualisation. 2) Predicting the propagation of contamination by using actual meteorological information and applying mathematical models for propagation of the spilled substances in the air, water and ground. They calculate the concentration of the substance as a function of time and distance from the initial spill location. The choice of the proper model is made by applying expert knowledge for evaluation of situation and comparing the model characteristics. 3) Suggesting actions for minimising the accident's impact. Expert knowledge is used for recommendations concerning deactivating of the region as well as actions for reducing the absorbed radiation doses of population. The modern technologies for knowledge processing and the object-oriented approach ensure flexibility and integration of all subsystems. (author)

  4. Physiotherapy in the intensive care unit: an evidence-based, expert driven, practical statement and rehabilitation recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, Juultje; Engelbert, Raoul HH; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela; Gosselink, Rik; Spronk, Peter E; Nollet, Frans; van der Schaaf, Marike

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop evidence-based recommendations for effective and safe diagnostic assessment and intervention strategies for the physiotherapy treatment of patients in intensive care units. Methods: We used the EBRO method, as recommended by the ‘Dutch Evidence Based Guideline Development Platform’ to develop an ‘evidence statement for physiotherapy in the intensive care unit’. This method consists of the identification of clinically relevant questions, followed by a systematic literature search, and summary of the evidence with final recommendations being moderated by feedback from experts. Results: Three relevant clinical domains were identified by experts: criteria to initiate treatment; measures to assess patients; evidence for effectiveness of treatments. In a systematic literature search, 129 relevant studies were identified and assessed for methodological quality and classified according to the level of evidence. The final evidence statement consisted of recommendations on eight absolute and four relative contra-indications to mobilization; a core set of nine specific instruments to assess impairments and activity restrictions; and six passive and four active effective interventions, with advice on (a) physiological measures to observe during treatment (with stopping criteria) and (b) what to record after the treatment. Conclusions: These recommendations form a protocol for treating people in an intensive care unit, based on best available evidence in mid-2014. PMID:25681407

  5. A fuzzy expert system for predicting the performance of switched reluctance motor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaeian, B.; Moallem, M.; Lucas, Caro

    2001-01-01

    In this paper a fuzzy expert system for predicting the performance of a switched reluctance motor has been developed. The design vector consists of design parameters, and output performance variables are efficiency and torque ripple. An accurate analysis program based on Improved Magnetic Equivalent Circuit method has been used to generate the input-output data. These input-output data is used to produce the initial fuzzy rules for predicting the performance of Switched Reluctance Motor. The initial set of fuzzy rules with triangular membership functions has been devised using a table look-up scheme. The initial fuzzy rules have been optimized to a set of fuzzy rules with Gaussian membership functions using gradient descent training scheme. The performance prediction results for a 6/8, 4 kw, Switched Reluctance Motor shows good agreement with the results obtained from Improved Magnetic Equivalent Circuit method or Finite Element analysis. The developed fuzzy expert system can be used for fast prediction of motor performance in the optimal design process or on-line control schemes of Switched Reluctance motor

  6. Efficacy beliefs predict collaborative practice among intensive care unit nurses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Blanc, Pascale M.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Salanova, Marisa; Llorens, Susana; Nap, Raoul E.

    P>Aim. This paper is a report of an investigation of whether intensive care nurses' efficacy beliefs predict future collaborative practice, and to test the potential mediating role of team commitment in this relationship. Background. Recent empirical studies in the field of work and organizational

  7. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy and expert systems for power quality analysis and prediction of abnormal operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Wael Refaat Anis

    The present research involves the development of several fuzzy expert systems for power quality analysis and diagnosis. Intelligent systems for the prediction of abnormal system operation were also developed. The performance of all intelligent modules developed was either enhanced or completely produced through adaptive fuzzy learning techniques. Neuro-fuzzy learning is the main adaptive technique utilized. The work presents a novel approach to the interpretation of power quality from the perspective of the continuous operation of a single system. The research includes an extensive literature review pertaining to the applications of intelligent systems to power quality analysis. Basic definitions and signature events related to power quality are introduced. In addition, detailed discussions of various artificial intelligence paradigms as well as wavelet theory are included. A fuzzy-based intelligent system capable of identifying normal from abnormal operation for a given system was developed. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy learning was applied to enhance its performance. A group of fuzzy expert systems that could perform full operational diagnosis were also developed successfully. The developed systems were applied to the operational diagnosis of 3-phase induction motors and rectifier bridges. A novel approach for learning power quality waveforms and trends was developed. The technique, which is adaptive neuro fuzzy-based, learned, compressed, and stored the waveform data. The new technique was successfully tested using a wide variety of power quality signature waveforms, and using real site data. The trend-learning technique was incorporated into a fuzzy expert system that was designed to predict abnormal operation of a monitored system. The intelligent system learns and stores, in compressed format, trends leading to abnormal operation. The system then compares incoming data to the retained trends continuously. If the incoming data matches any of the learned trends, an

  8. A deep learning approach for predicting the quality of online health expert question-answering services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ze; Zhang, Zhan; Yang, Haiqin; Chen, Qing; Zuo, Decheng

    2017-07-01

    Recently, online health expert question-answering (HQA) services (systems) have attracted more and more health consumers to ask health-related questions everywhere at any time due to the convenience and effectiveness. However, the quality of answers in existing HQA systems varies in different situations. It is significant to provide effective tools to automatically determine the quality of the answers. Two main characteristics in HQA systems raise the difficulties of classification: (1) physicians' answers in an HQA system are usually written in short text, which yields the data sparsity issue; (2) HQA systems apply the quality control mechanism, which refrains the wisdom of crowd. The important information, such as the best answer and the number of users' votes, is missing. To tackle these issues, we prepare the first HQA research data set labeled by three medical experts in 90days and formulate the problem of predicting the quality of answers in the system as a classification task. We not only incorporate the standard textual feature of answers, but also introduce a set of unique non-textual features, i.e., the popular used surface linguistic features and the novel social features, from other modalities. A multimodal deep belief network (DBN)-based learning framework is then proposed to learn the high-level hidden semantic representations of answers from both textual features and non-textual features while the learned joint representation is fed into popular classifiers to determine the quality of answers. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of including the non-textual features and the proposed multimodal deep learning framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Artificial neural networks application for solid fuel slagging intensity predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kakietek Sławomir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Slagging issues present in pulverized steam boilers very often lead to heat transfer problems, corrosion and not planned outages of boilers which increase the cost of energy production and decrease the efficiency of energy production. Slagging especially occurs in regions with reductive atmospheres which nowadays are very common due to very strict limitations in NOx emissions. Moreover alternative fuels like biomass which are also used in combustion systems from two decades in order to decrease CO2 emissions also usually increase the risk of slagging. Thus the prediction of slagging properties of fuels is not the minor issue which can be neglected before purchasing or mixing of fuels. This however is rather difficult to estimate and even commonly known standard laboratory methods like fusion temperature determination or special indexers calculated on the basis of proximate and ultimate analyses, very often have no reasonable correlation to real boiler fuel behaviour. In this paper the method of determination of slagging properties of solid fuels based on laboratory investigation and artificial neural networks were presented. A fuel data base with over 40 fuels was created. Neural networks simulations were carried out in order to predict the beginning temperature and intensity of slagging. Reasonable results were obtained for some of tested neural networks, especially for hybrid feedforward networks with PCA technique. Consequently neural network model will be used in Common Intelligent Boiler Operation Platform (CIBOP being elaborated within CERUBIS research project for two BP-1150 and BB-1150 steam boilers. The model among others enables proper fuel selection in order to minimize slagging risk.

  10. Selecting new health technologies for evaluation:Can clinical experts predict which new anticancer drugswill impact Danish health care?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Douw, Karla; Vondeling, Hindrik

    2007-01-01

    Several countries have systems in place to support the managed entry of new health technologies. The big challenge for these so-called horizon-scanning systems is to select those technologies that require decision support by means of an early evaluation. Clinical experts are considered a valuable...... source of information on new health technologies, but research on the relevance of their input is scarce. In 2000, we asked six Danish expert oncologists to predict whether a sample of 19 new anticancer drugs would impact Danish health care over the next 5 years. In 2005, we assessed the accuracy...... of these predictions in a delayed type cross-sectional study. The specificity of the Danish experts' prediction was 1 (95% confidence interval 0.74-1.00) and the sensitivity was 0.63 (0.31-0.86). The negative predictive value was 0.79 (0.52-0.92) and the positive predictive value was 1 (0.57-1.00). This indicates...

  11. Expert Game experiment predicts emergence of trust in professional communication networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendtsen, Kristian Moss; Uekermann, Florian; Haerter, Jan O

    2016-10-25

    Strong social capital is increasingly recognized as an organizational advantage. Better knowledge sharing and reduced transaction costs increase work efficiency. To mimic the formation of the associated communication network, we propose the Expert Game, where each individual must find a specific expert and receive her help. Participants act in an impersonal environment and under time constraints that provide short-term incentives for noncooperative behavior. Despite these constraints, we observe cooperation between individuals and the self-organization of a sustained trust network, which facilitates efficient communication channels with increased information flow. We build a behavioral model that explains the experimental dynamics. Analysis of the model reveals an exploitation protection mechanism and measurable social capital, which quantitatively describe the economic utility of trust.

  12. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... Mortality rate was higher in patients admitted from wards other than surgery ... evaluate the predictability of various severity of illness scores, and ..... Livingston BM, MacKirdy FN, Howie JC, Jones R, Norrie JD. Assessment of.

  13. Prediction of absolute infrared intensities for the fundamental vibrations of H2O2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, J. D.; Hillman, J. J.

    1981-01-01

    Absolute infrared intensities are predicted for the vibrational bands of gas-phase H2O2 by the use of a hydrogen atomic polar tensor transferred from the hydroxyl hydrogen atom of CH3OH. These predicted intensities are compared with intensities predicted by the use of a hydrogen atomic polar tensor transferred from H2O. The predicted relative intensities agree well with published spectra of gas-phase H2O2, and the predicted absolute intensities are expected to be accurate to within at least a factor of two. Among the vibrational degrees of freedom, the antisymmetric O-H bending mode nu(6) is found to be the strongest with a calculated intensity of 60.5 km/mole. The torsional band, a consequence of hindered rotation, is found to be the most intense fundamental with a predicted intensity of 120 km/mole. These results are compared with the recent absolute intensity determinations for the nu(6) band.

  14. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  15. Predicting Consumer Effort in Finding and Paying for Health Care: Expert Interviews and Claims Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Sandra; Monsen, Karen A; Pieczkiewicz, David; Wolfson, Julian; Khairat, Saif

    2017-10-12

    For consumers to accept and use a health care information system, it must be easy to use, and the consumer must perceive it as being free from effort. Finding health care providers and paying for care are tasks that must be done to access treatment. These tasks require effort on the part of the consumer and can be frustrating when the goal of the consumer is primarily to receive treatments for better health. The aim of this study was to determine the factors that result in consumer effort when finding accessible health care. Having an understanding of these factors will help define requirements when designing health information systems. A panel of 12 subject matter experts was consulted and the data from 60 million medical claims were used to determine the factors contributing to effort. Approximately 60 million claims were processed by the health care insurance organization in a 12-month duration with the population defined. Over 292 million diagnoses from claims were used to validate the panel input. The results of the study showed that the number of people in the consumer's household, number of visits to providers outside the consumer's insurance network, number of adjusted and denied medical claims, and number of consumer inquiries are a proxy for the level of effort in finding and paying for care. The effort level, so measured and weighted per expert panel recommendations, differed by diagnosis. This study provides an understanding of how consumers must put forth effort when engaging with a health care system to access care. For higher satisfaction and acceptance results, health care payers ideally will design and develop systems that facilitate an understanding of how to avoid denied claims, educate on the payment of claims to avoid adjustments, and quickly find providers of affordable care. ©Sandra Long, Karen A. Monsen, David Pieczkiewicz, Julian Wolfson, Saif Khairat. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 12.10.2017.

  16. Probabilistic fuzzy prediction of mortality in intensive care units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fialho, A.T.S.; Kaymak, U.; Almeida, R.J.; Cismondi, F.; Vieira, S.M.; Reti, S.R.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Finkelstein, S.N.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.

    2012-01-01

    In the present work, we propose the application of probabilistic fuzzy systems (PFS) to model the prediction of mortality in septic shock patients. This technique is characterized by the combination of the linguistic description of the system with the statistical properties of data. Preliminary

  17. The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    weather. 1. Introduction. Space weather prediction involves forecasting of the magnitude and the time of the ... they depend solely on interplanetary (IP) parameters, viz., the solar wind speed and the southward compo- ... about 30 to 60 minutes of warning time as it measures the solar wind properties at the L1 point. A longer ...

  18. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  19. Sugeno-Fuzzy Expert System Modeling for Quality Prediction of Non-Contact Machining Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivaraos; Khalim, A. Z.; Salleh, M. S.; Sivakumar, D.; Kadirgama, K.

    2018-03-01

    Modeling can be categorised into four main domains: prediction, optimisation, estimation and calibration. In this paper, the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy logic method is examined as a prediction modelling method to investigate the taper quality of laser lathing, which seeks to replace traditional lathe machines with 3D laser lathing in order to achieve the desired cylindrical shape of stock materials. Three design parameters were selected: feed rate, cutting speed and depth of cut. A total of twenty-four experiments were conducted with eight sequential runs and replicated three times. The results were found to be 99% of accuracy rate of the TSK fuzzy predictive model, which suggests that the model is a suitable and practical method for non-linear laser lathing process.

  20. Design Expert Supported Mathematical Optimization and Predictability Study of Buccoadhesive Pharmaceutical Wafers of Loratadine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prithviraj Chakraborty

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The objective of this work encompasses the application of the response surface approach in the development of buccoadhesive pharmaceutical wafers of Loratadine (LOR. Methods. Experiments were performed according to a 32 factorial design to evaluate the effects of buccoadhesive polymer, sodium alginate (A, and lactose monohydrate as ingredient, of hydrophilic matrix former (B on the bioadhesive force, disintegration time, percent (% swelling index, and time taken for 70% drug release (t70%. The effect of the two independent variables on the response variables was studied by response surface plots and contour plots generated by the Design-Expert software. The desirability function was used to optimize the response variables. Results. The compatibility between LOR and the wafer excipients was confirmed by differential scanning calorimetry, FTIR spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction (XRD analysis. Bioadhesion force, measured with TAXT2i texture analyzer, showed that the wafers had a good bioadhesive property which could be advantageous for retaining the drug into the buccal cavity. Conclusion. The observed responses taken were in agreement with the experimental values, and Loratadine wafers were produced with less experimental trials, and a patient compliant product was achieved with the concept of formulation by design.

  1. Design Expert Supported Mathematical Optimization and Predictability Study of Buccoadhesive Pharmaceutical Wafers of Loratadine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Surajit; Parcha, Versha; Bhattacharya, Shiv Sankar; Ghosh, Amitava

    2013-01-01

    Objective. The objective of this work encompasses the application of the response surface approach in the development of buccoadhesive pharmaceutical wafers of Loratadine (LOR). Methods. Experiments were performed according to a 32 factorial design to evaluate the effects of buccoadhesive polymer, sodium alginate (A), and lactose monohydrate as ingredient, of hydrophilic matrix former (B) on the bioadhesive force, disintegration time, percent (%) swelling index, and time taken for 70% drug release (t 70%). The effect of the two independent variables on the response variables was studied by response surface plots and contour plots generated by the Design-Expert software. The desirability function was used to optimize the response variables. Results. The compatibility between LOR and the wafer excipients was confirmed by differential scanning calorimetry, FTIR spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Bioadhesion force, measured with TAXT2i texture analyzer, showed that the wafers had a good bioadhesive property which could be advantageous for retaining the drug into the buccal cavity. Conclusion. The observed responses taken were in agreement with the experimental values, and Loratadine wafers were produced with less experimental trials, and a patient compliant product was achieved with the concept of formulation by design. PMID:23781498

  2. Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oteros, J; García-Mozo, H; Hervás, C; Galán, C

    2013-03-01

    This paper reports on modelling to predict airborne olive pollen season severity, expressed as a pollen index (PI), in Córdoba province (southern Spain) several weeks prior to the pollen season start. Using a 29-year database (1982-2010), a multivariate regression model based on five indices-the index-based model-was built to enhance the efficacy of prediction models. Four of the indices used were biometeorological indices: thermal index, pre-flowering hydric index, dormancy hydric index and summer index; the fifth was an autoregressive cyclicity index based on pollen data from previous years. The extreme weather events characteristic of the Mediterranean climate were also taken into account by applying different adjustment criteria. The results obtained with this model were compared with those yielded by a traditional meteorological-based model built using multivariate regression analysis of simple meteorological-related variables. The performance of the models (confidence intervals, significance levels and standard errors) was compared, and they were also validated using the bootstrap method. The index-based model built on biometeorological and cyclicity indices was found to perform better for olive pollen forecasting purposes than the traditional meteorological-based model.

  3. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems in Medicine and Their Ability to Prediction as Therapy Planning Systems by CADIAG-2 Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Madadpour Inallou; Zeinab Ajurlou; Bahman Mehri

    2012-01-01

    Expert Systems in Medicine is a collection, storage, retrieval, communication and processing of medical data for the purposes of interpretation, inference, decision-support, research and so other purposes in medicine. Expert System is an interactive computer-based decision tool that uses both facts and heuristics to solve difficult decision problems based on knowledge acquired from an expert. Expert systems provide expert advice and guidance in a wide variety of activities, from computer diag...

  4. SeTES, a Self-Teaching Expert System for the analysis, design and prediction of gas production from shales and a prototype for a new generation of Expert Systems in the Earth Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, H. A.; Boyle, K.; Pullman, S.; Reagan, M. T.; Moridis, G. J.; Blasingame, T. A.; Rector, J. W.; Nikolaou, M.

    2010-12-01

    A Self Teaching Expert System (SeTES) is being developed for the analysis, design and prediction of gas production from shales. An Expert System is a computer program designed to answer questions or clarify uncertainties that its designers did not necessarily envision which would otherwise have to be addressed by consultation with one or more human experts. Modern developments in computer learning, data mining, database management, web integration and cheap computing power are bringing the promise of expert systems to fruition. SeTES is a partial successor to Prospector, a system to aid in the identification and evaluation of mineral deposits developed by Stanford University and the USGS in the late 1970s, and one of the most famous early expert systems. Instead of the text dialogue used in early systems, the web user interface of SeTES helps a non-expert user to articulate, clarify and reason about a problem by navigating through a series of interactive wizards. The wizards identify potential solutions to queries by retrieving and combining together relevant records from a database. Inferences, decisions and predictions are made from incomplete and noisy inputs using a series of probabilistic models (Bayesian Networks) which incorporate records from the database, physical laws and empirical knowledge in the form of prior probability distributions. The database is mainly populated with empirical measurements, however an automatic algorithm supplements sparse data with synthetic data obtained through physical modeling. This constitutes the mechanism for how SeTES self-teaches. SeTES’ predictive power is expected to grow as users contribute more data into the system. Samples are appropriately weighted to favor high quality empirical data over low quality or synthetic data. Finally, a set of data visualization tools digests the output measurements into graphical outputs.

  5. Management of neutropenic patients in the intensive care unit (NEWBORNS EXCLUDED) recommendations from an expert panel from the French Intensive Care Society (SRLF) with the French Group for Pediatric Intensive Care Emergencies (GFRUP), the French Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care (SFAR), the French Society of Hematology (SFH), the French Society for Hospital Hygiene (SF2H), and the French Infectious Diseases Society (SPILF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, David; Azoulay, Elie; Benoit, Dominique; Clouzeau, Benjamin; Demaret, Pierre; Ducassou, Stéphane; Frange, Pierre; Lafaurie, Matthieu; Legrand, Matthieu; Meert, Anne-Pascale; Mokart, Djamel; Naudin, Jérôme; Pene, Frédéric; Rabbat, Antoine; Raffoux, Emmanuel; Ribaud, Patricia; Richard, Jean-Christophe; Vincent, François; Zahar, Jean-Ralph; Darmon, Michael

    2016-12-01

    Neutropenia is defined by either an absolute or functional defect (acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome) of polymorphonuclear neutrophils and is associated with high risk of specific complications that may require intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Specificities in the management of critically ill neutropenic patients prompted the establishment of guidelines dedicated to intensivists. These recommendations were drawn up by a panel of experts brought together by the French Intensive Care Society in collaboration with the French Group for Pediatric Intensive Care Emergencies, the French Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, the French Society of Hematology, the French Society for Hospital Hygiene, and the French Infectious Diseases Society. Literature review and formulation of recommendations were performed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. Each recommendation was then evaluated and rated by each expert using a methodology derived from the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. Six fields are covered by the provided recommendations: (1) ICU admission and prognosis, (2) protective isolation and prophylaxis, (3) management of acute respiratory failure, (4) organ failure and organ support, (5) antibiotic management and source control, and (6) hematological management. Most of the provided recommendations are obtained from low levels of evidence, however, suggesting a need for additional studies. Seven recommendations were, however, associated with high level of evidences and are related to protective isolation, diagnostic workup of acute respiratory failure, medical management, and timing surgery in patients with typhlitis.

  6. Expansion of the baby-friendly hospital initiative ten steps to successful breastfeeding into neonatal intensive care: expert group recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyqvist, Kerstin H; Häggkvist, Anna-Pia; Hansen, Mette N; Kylberg, Elisabeth; Frandsen, Annemi L; Maastrup, Ragnhild; Ezeonodo, Aino; Hannula, Leena; Haiek, Laura N

    2013-08-01

    In the World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund document Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative: Revised, Updated and Expanded for Integrated Care, neonatal care is mentioned as 1 area that would benefit from expansion of the original Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding. The different situations faced by preterm and sick infants and their mothers, compared to healthy infants and their mothers, necessitate a specific breastfeeding policy for neonatal intensive care and require that health care professionals have knowledge and skills in lactation and breastfeeding support, including provision of antenatal information, that are specific to neonatal care. Facilitation of early, continuous, and prolonged skin-to-skin contact (kangaroo mother care), early initiation of breastfeeding, and mothers' access to breastfeeding support during the infants' whole hospital stay are important. Mother's own milk or donor milk (when available) is the optimal nutrition. Efforts should be made to minimize parent-infant separation and facilitate parents' unrestricted presence with their infants. The initiation and continuation of breastfeeding should be guided only by infant competence and stability, using a semi-demand feeding regimen during the transition to exclusive breastfeeding. Pacifiers are appropriate during tube-feeding, for pain relief, and for calming infants. Nipple shields can be used for facilitating establishment of breastfeeding, but only after qualified support and attempts at the breast. Alternatives to bottles should be used until breastfeeding is well established. The discharge program should include adequate preparation of parents, information about access to lactation and breastfeeding support, both professional and peer support, and a plan for continued follow-up.

  7. Geometrical theory to predict eccentric photorefraction intensity profiles in the human eye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roorda, Austin; Campbell, Melanie C. W.; Bobier, W. R.

    1995-08-01

    In eccentric photorefraction, light returning from the retina of the eye is photographed by a camera focused on the eye's pupil. We use a geometrical model of eccentric photorefraction to generate intensity profiles across the pupil image. The intensity profiles for three different monochromatic aberration functions induced in a single eye are predicted and show good agreement with the measured eccentric photorefraction intensity profiles. A directional reflection from the retina is incorporated into the calculation. Intensity profiles for symmetric and asymmetric aberrations are generated and measured. The latter profile shows a dependency on the source position and the meridian. The magnitude of the effect of thresholding on measured pattern extents is predicted. Monochromatic aberrations in human eyes will cause deviations in the eccentric photorefraction measurements from traditional crescents caused by defocus and may cause misdiagnoses of ametropia or anisometropia. Our results suggest that measuring refraction along the vertical meridian is preferred for screening studies with the eccentric photorefractor.

  8. The use of a sweetener substitution method to predict dietary exposures for the intense sweetener rebaudioside A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, A G

    2008-07-01

    There are more published dietary exposure data for intense sweeteners than for any other group of food additives. Data are available for countries with different patterns of sweetener approvals and also for population groups with high potential intakes, such as children and diabetic subjects. These data provide a secure basis for predicting the potential intakes of a novel intense sweetener by adjustment of the reported intakes of different sweeteners in mg/kg body weight by their relative sweetness intensities. This approach allows the possibility that a novel sweetener attains the same pattern and extent of use as the existing sweeteners. The intakes by high consumers of other sweeteners allows for possible brand loyalty to the novel sweetener. Using this method, the estimated dietary exposures for rebaudioside A in average and high consumers are predicted to be 1.3 and 3.4mg/kg body weight per day for the general population, 2.1 and 5.0mg/kg body weight per day for children and 3.4 and 4.5mg/kg body weight per day for children with diabetes. The temporary ADI defined by the JECFA for steviol glycosides [JECFA, 2005. Steviol glycosides. In: 63rd Meeting of the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland, WHO Technical Report Series 928, pp. 34-39] was set at 0-2mg/kg body weight (expressed as steviol equivalents); after correction for the difference in molecular weights, these estimated intakes of rebaudioside A are equivalent to daily steviol intakes of less than 2mg/kg. In consequence, this analysis shows that the intakes of rebaudioside A would not exceed the JECFA temporary ADI set for steviol glycosides.

  9. Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.; Gibbs, James F.

    1975-01-01

    The intensity data for the California earthquake of April 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Formation is: Intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (Distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the Average Horizontal Spectral Amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is: Intensity Increment = 0.27 +2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan Formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley Sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara Formation, 1.34 for alluvium, 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hazard fault.

  10. Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borcherdt, R.D.; Gibbs, J.F.

    1975-01-01

    The intensity data for the California earthquake of Apr 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan formation is intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units, intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the average horizontal spectral amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is intensity increment = 0.27 + 2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara formation, 1.34 for alluvium, and 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hayward fault.

  11. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  12. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  13. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  14. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  15. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  16. A Comparative Study of Spectral Auroral Intensity Predictions From Multiple Electron Transport Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubbs, Guy; Michell, Robert; Samara, Marilia; Hampton, Donald; Hecht, James; Solomon, Stanley; Jahn, Jorg-Micha

    2018-01-01

    It is important to routinely examine and update models used to predict auroral emissions resulting from precipitating electrons in Earth's magnetotail. These models are commonly used to invert spectral auroral ground-based images to infer characteristics about incident electron populations when in situ measurements are unavailable. In this work, we examine and compare auroral emission intensities predicted by three commonly used electron transport models using varying electron population characteristics. We then compare model predictions to same-volume in situ electron measurements and ground-based imaging to qualitatively examine modeling prediction error. Initial comparisons showed differences in predictions by the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and the other transport models examined. Chemical reaction rates and radiative rates in GLOW were updated using recent publications, and predictions showed better agreement with the other models and the same-volume data, stressing that these rates are important to consider when modeling auroral processes. Predictions by each model exhibit similar behavior for varying atmospheric constants, energies, and energy fluxes. Same-volume electron data and images are highly correlated with predictions by each model, showing that these models can be used to accurately derive electron characteristics and ionospheric parameters based solely on multispectral optical imaging data.

  17. Prediction of chronic critical illness in a general intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio H. Loss

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence, costs, and mortality associated with chronic critical illness (CCI, and to identify clinical predictors of CCI in a general intensive care unit. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study. All patients receiving supportive treatment for over 20 days were considered chronically critically ill and eligible for the study. After applying the exclusion criteria, 453 patients were analyzed. RESULTS: There was an 11% incidence of CCI. Total length of hospital stay, costs, and mortality were significantly higher among patients with CCI. Mechanical ventilation, sepsis, Glasgow score < 15, inadequate calorie intake, and higher body mass index were independent predictors for cci in the multivariate logistic regression model. CONCLUSIONS: CCI affects a distinctive population in intensive care units with higher mortality, costs, and prolonged hospitalization. Factors identifiable at the time of admission or during the first week in the intensive care unit can be used to predict CCI.

  18. Predicting the effects of organ motion on the dose delivered by dynamic intensity modulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.X.; Jaffray, David; Martinez, A.A.; Wong, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Computer-optimized treatment plans, aimed to enhance tumor control and reduce normal tissue complication, generally require non-uniform beam intensities. One of the techniques for delivering intensity-modulated beams is the use of dynamic multileaf collimation, where the beam aperture and field shape change during irradiation. When intensity-modulated beams are delivered with dynamic collimation, intra-treatment organ motion may not only cause geometric misses at the field boundaries but also create hot and cold spots in the target. The mechanism for producing such effects has not been well understood. This study analyzes the dosimetric effects of intra-treatment organ motion on dynamic intensity modulation. A numerical method is developed for predicting the intensity distributions in a moving target before dose is delivered with dynamic intensity modulation. Material and Methods: In the numerical algorithm, the change in position and shape of the beam aperture with time were modeled as a three-dimensional 'tunnel', with the shape of the field aperture described in the x-y plane and its temporal position shown in the z-dimension. A point in the target had to be in the tunnel in order to receive irradiation and the dose to the point was proportional to the amount of time that this point stayed in the tunnel. Since each point in the target were analyzed separately, non-rigid body variations could easily be handled. The dependency of the dose variations on all parameters involved, including the speed of collimator motion, the frequency and amplitude of the target motion, and the size of the field segments, was analyzed. The algorithm was verified by irradiating moving phantoms with beams of dynamically modulated intensities. Predictions were also made for a treatment of a thoracic tumor using a dynamic wedge. The changes of target position with time were based on the MRI images of the chest region acquired using fast MRI scans in a cine fashion for a duration

  19. Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

    2017-12-01

    Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

  20. A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey M. Hearing

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

  1. Prediction of thermal coagulation from the instantaneous strain distribution induced by high-intensity focused ultrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, Ryosuke; Takagi, Ryo; Tomiyasu, Kentaro; Yoshizawa, Shin; Umemura, Shin-ichiro

    2017-07-01

    The targeting of the ultrasound beam and the prediction of thermal lesion formation in advance are the requirements for monitoring high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment with safety and reproducibility. To visualize the HIFU focal zone, we utilized an acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging-based method. After inducing displacements inside tissues with pulsed HIFU called the push pulse exposure, the distribution of axial displacements started expanding and moving. To acquire RF data immediately after and during the HIFU push pulse exposure to improve prediction accuracy, we attempted methods using extrapolation estimation and applying HIFU noise elimination. The distributions going back in the time domain from the end of push pulse exposure are in good agreement with tissue coagulation at the center. The results suggest that the proposed focal zone visualization employing pulsed HIFU entailing the high-speed ARFI imaging method is useful for the prediction of thermal coagulation in advance.

  2. Beyond intensity: Spectral features effectively predict music-induced subjective arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M; Fitch, W Tecumseh

    2014-01-01

    Emotions in music are conveyed by a variety of acoustic cues. Notably, the positive association between sound intensity and arousal has particular biological relevance. However, although amplitude normalization is a common procedure used to control for intensity in music psychology research, direct comparisons between emotional ratings of original and amplitude-normalized musical excerpts are lacking. In this study, 30 nonmusicians retrospectively rated the subjective arousal and pleasantness induced by 84 six-second classical music excerpts, and an additional 30 nonmusicians rated the same excerpts normalized for amplitude. Following the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models of acoustic communication, we hypothesized that arousal and pleasantness ratings would be similar for both versions of the excerpts, and that arousal could be predicted effectively by other acoustic cues besides intensity. Although the difference in mean arousal and pleasantness ratings between original and amplitude-normalized excerpts correlated significantly with the amplitude adjustment, ratings for both sets of excerpts were highly correlated and shared a similar range of values, thus validating the use of amplitude normalization in music emotion research. Two acoustic parameters, spectral flux and spectral entropy, accounted for 65% of the variance in arousal ratings for both sets, indicating that spectral features can effectively predict arousal. Additionally, we confirmed that amplitude-normalized excerpts were adequately matched for loudness. Overall, the results corroborate our hypotheses and support the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models.

  3. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  4. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  5. Topography and geology site effects from the intensity prediction model (ShakeMap) for Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Puy Papí Isaba, María; Jia, Yan; Weginger, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    The seismicity in Austria can be categorized as moderated. Despite the fact that the hazard seems to be rather low, earthquakes can cause great damage and losses, specially in densely populated and industrialized areas. It is well known, that equations which predict intensity as a function of magnitude and distance, among other parameters, are useful tool for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, this study aims to determine an empirical model of the ground shaking intensities (ShakeMap) of a series of earthquakes occurred in Austria between 1000 and 2014. Furthermore, the obtained empirical model will lead to further interpretation of both, contemporary and historical earthquakes. A total of 285 events, which epicenters were located in Austria, and a sum of 22.739 reported macreoseismic data points from Austria and adjoining countries, were used. These events are enclosed in the period 1000-2014 and characterized by having a local magnitude greater than 3. In the first state of the model development, the data was careful selected, e.g. solely intensities equal or greater than III were used. In a second state the data was adjusted to the selected empirical model. Finally, geology and topography corrections were obtained by means of the model residuals in order to derive intensity-based site amplification effects.

  6. Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Secchi, Piercesare; Advances in Complex Data Modeling and Computational Methods in Statistics

    2015-01-01

    The book is addressed to statisticians working at the forefront of the statistical analysis of complex and high dimensional data and offers a wide variety of statistical models, computer intensive methods and applications: network inference from the analysis of high dimensional data; new developments for bootstrapping complex data; regression analysis for measuring the downsize reputational risk; statistical methods for research on the human genome dynamics; inference in non-euclidean settings and for shape data; Bayesian methods for reliability and the analysis of complex data; methodological issues in using administrative data for clinical and epidemiological research; regression models with differential regularization; geostatistical methods for mobility analysis through mobile phone data exploration. This volume is the result of a careful selection among the contributions presented at the conference "S.Co.2013: Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction" held...

  7. Predicting intensity of white-tailed deer herbivory in the Central Appalachian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniowski, Andrew B.; Ford, W. Mark

    2018-01-01

    In eastern North America, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can have profound influences on forest biodiversity and forest successional processes. Moderate to high deer populations in the central Appalachians have resulted in lower forest biodiversity. Legacy effects in some areas persist even following deer population reductions or declines. This has prompted managers to consider deer population management goals in light of policies designed to support conservation of biodiversity and forest regeneration while continuing to support ample recreational hunting opportunities. However, despite known relationships between herbivory intensity and biodiversity impact, little information exists on the predictability of herbivory intensity across the varied and spatially diverse habitat conditions of the central Appalachians. We examined the predictability of browsing rates across central Appalachian landscapes at four environmental scales: vegetative community characteristics, physical environment, habitat configuration, and local human and deer population demographics. In an information-theoretic approach, we found that a model fitting the number of stems browsed relative to local vegetation characteristics received most (62%) of the overall support of all tested models assessing herbivory impact. Our data suggest that deer herbivory responded most predictably to differences in vegetation quantity and type. No other spatial factors or demographic factors consistently affected browsing intensity. Because herbivory, vegetation communities, and productivity vary spatially, we suggest that effective broad-scale herbivory impact assessment should include spatially-balanced vegetation monitoring that accounts for regional differences in deer forage preference. Effective monitoring is necessary to avoid biodiversity impacts and deleterious changes in vegetation community composition that are difficult to reverse and/or may not be detected using traditional deer

  8. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  9. Evaluation of the predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Gambero Gaspar

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To evaluate predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit (ICU and to propose a new index. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between January 2011 and December 2012. This study was performed in an ICU in a tertiary care hospital at a public university and included 114 patients staying in the adult ICU for at least 48 hours. The association of patient variables with candidemia was analyzed. RESULTS: There were 18 (15.8% proven cases of candidemia and 96 (84.2% cases without candidemia. Univariate analysis revealed the following risk factors: parenteral nutrition, severe sepsis, surgical procedure, dialysis, pancreatitis, acute renal failure, and an APACHE II score higher than 20. For the Candida score index, the odds ratio was 8.50 (95% CI, 2.57 to 28.09; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.78, 0.71, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. With respect to the clinical predictor index, the odds ratio was 9.45 (95%CI, 2.06 to 43.39; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.89, 0.54, 0.27, and 0.96, respectively. The proposed candidemia index cutoff was 8.5; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.77, 0.70, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Candida score and clinical predictor index excluded candidemia satisfactorily. The effectiveness of the candidemia index was comparable to that of the Candida score.

  10. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  11. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Guérin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P<.05 but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  12. Situational motivation and perceived intensity: their interaction in predicting changes in positive affect from physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérin, Eva; Fortier, Michelle S

    2012-01-01

    There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE)] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  13. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  14. Predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography intensity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhader, Mustafa; Hudieb, Malik; Khader, Yousef

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) intensity values. CBCT cross-sectional images for 436 posterior mandibular implant sites were selected for the study. Using Invivo software (Anatomage, San Jose, California, USA), two observers classified the bone density into three categories: low, intermediate, and high, and CBCT intensity values were generated. Based on the consensus of the two observers, 15.6% of sites were of low bone density, 47.9% were of intermediate density, and 36.5% were of high density. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis showed that CBCT intensity values had a high predictive power for predicting high density sites (area under the curve [AUC] =0.94, P < 0.005) and intermediate density sites (AUC = 0.81, P < 0.005). The best cut-off value for intensity to predict intermediate density sites was 218 (sensitivity = 0.77 and specificity = 0.76) and the best cut-off value for intensity to predict high density sites was 403 (sensitivity = 0.93 and specificity = 0.77). CBCT intensity values are considered useful for predicting bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites.

  15. Development of a CME-associated geomagnetic storm intensity prediction tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. C.; DeHart, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    From 1995 to 2012, the Wind spacecraft recorded 168 magnetic cloud (MC) events. Among those events, 79 were found to have upstream shock waves and their source locations on the Sun were identified. Using a recipe of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz initial turning direction after shock (Wu et al., 1996, GRL), it is found that the north-south polarity of 66 (83.5%) out of the 79 events were accurately predicted. These events were tested and further analyzed, reaffirming that the Bz intial turning direction was accurate. The results also indicate that 37 of the 79 MCs originate from the north (of the Sun) averaged a Dst_min of -119 nT, whereas 42 of the MCs originating from the south (of the Sun) averaged -89 nT. In an effort to provide this research to others, a website was built that incorporated various tools and pictures to predict the intensity of the geomagnetic storms. The tool is capable of predicting geomagnetic storms with different ranges of Dst_min (from no-storm to gigantic storms). This work was supported by Naval Research Lab HBCU/MI Internship program and Chief of Naval Research.

  16. Application of Intelligent Dynamic Bayesian Network with Wavelet Analysis for Probabilistic Prediction of Storm Track Intensity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The effective prediction of storm track (ST is greatly beneficial for analyzing the development and anomalies of mid-latitude weather systems. For the non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and uncertainty of ST intensity index (STII, a new probabilistic prediction model was proposed based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN and wavelet analysis (WA. We introduced probability theory and graph theory for the first time to quantitatively describe the nonlinear relationship and uncertain interaction of the ST system. Then a casual prediction network (i.e., DBN was constructed through wavelet decomposition, structural learning, parameter learning, and probabilistic inference, which was used for expression of relation among predictors and probabilistic prediction of STII. The intensity prediction of the North Pacific ST with data from 1961–2010 showed that the new model was able to give more comprehensive prediction information and higher prediction accuracy and had strong generalization ability and good stability.

  17. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Yu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  18. Predictive factors for the admission of a newborn in an intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Danielle Ribeiro Lages

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Analytical documentary and retrospective study aiming at determining association between predictive factors for admission of a newborn in a public Intensive Care Unit and maternal features. The study sample had 376 neonates admitted in 2009. Results showed: mothers aged between 19 and 25 years (43.4%, primary education (52.4%, living with a partner (66.2%. Prenatal care was done by 84.8% of them, and 62% presented gestational pathologies. Out of all neonates, 55.1% were male, 85.4% preterm, 83% underweight, 57.2% presented respiratory problems. The bivariate analysis showed a significant association between birth weight and growth (p = 0.04 between maternal age and Apgar in the 1st minute (p = 0.04 and maternal age and Apgar score in the 5th minute (p = 0.01. Maternal age and number of prenatal appointments influence on the admission of the neonates to the Intensive Care Unit because they are related to birth weight and Apgar scores.

  19. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  20. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  1. 20170921 - An evaluation of selected (Q)SARs/expert systems for the Prediction of Skin Sensitization Potential (ASCCT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive testing to characterize substances for their skin sensitization potential has historically been based on animal models such as the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) and the Guinea Pig Maximization Test (GPMT). In recent years, EU regulations have provided a strong incentiv...

  2. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  3. Predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography intensity values

    OpenAIRE

    Alkhader, Mustafa; Hudieb, Malik; Khader, Yousef

    2017-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) intensity values. Materials and Methods: CBCT cross-sectional images for 436 posterior mandibular implant sites were selected for the study. Using Invivo software (Anatomage, San Jose, California, USA), two observers classified the bone density into three categories: low, intermediate, and high, and CBCT intensity values were g...

  4. The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Derek

    1998-01-01

    .... Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I based rainfall measuring algorithm and current intensity and ensuing 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hour intensity changes from best...

  5. Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

    2008-08-01

    This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

  6. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  7. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  8. What makes a successful volunteer Expert Patients Programme tutor? Factors predicting satisfaction, productivity and intention to continue tutoring of a new public health workforce in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Wendy; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Bower, Peter; Kennedy, Anne; Rogers, Anne; Reeves, David

    2009-04-01

    Better management of chronic conditions is a challenge for public health policy. The Expert Patients Programme was introduced into the United Kingdom to improve self-care in people with long-term conditions. To deliver self-care courses, the programme relies on the recruitment and continued commitment to delivering the courses of volunteer lay tutors who have long-term conditions. Ensuring the tutor workforce is productive, satisfied in their role and retained long-term is central to the viability of the programme. This exploratory study aimed to determine what factors predict productivity, intention to continue tutoring, and satisfaction in a sample of volunteer tutors from the Expert Patients Programme. A cross-sectional survey of 895 tutors was carried out and 518 (58%) responded. The questionnaire was designed to describe the characteristics, productivity, intention to continue tutoring, and satisfaction of tutors. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to examine the determinants of productivity, intention to continue tutoring, and satisfaction, such as patient demographics, attitudes, physical and mental health, mastery and self-esteem. Attitudes relating to personal goals, and better health were significant predictors of satisfaction with the tutor role. Only a small proportion of the variance in productivity was accounted for, and tutors were more likely to be productive when they were single, homeowners, car owners, and had lower scores on the depression scale. Overall satisfaction and personal goals were predictors of intention to continue tutoring. Demographic factors, health measures and attitudes each predicted different aspects of the experience of work conducted by the volunteer tutors. The results should prove useful for planning interventions to enhance the success of this new workforce initiative. Attempts to increase participation in courses by people from deprived backgrounds are likely to be enhanced if tutors come from similar

  9. Prediction of SEP Peak Proton Intensity Based on CME Speed, Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Mays, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.; Kwon, R.; Frechette, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (Solar Phys., 289, 3059, 2014; DOI 10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the intensity of 14-24 MeV protons in a solar energetic particle event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME), may be used to "predict" the intensity of a solar energetic particle event. Starting with a subset of several hundred CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI real-time database (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/) selected without consideration of whether they were associated with SEP events, we first use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth or the STEREO spacecraft using this formula. Since most of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many "false alarms" result. We then examine whether considering other phenomena which may accompany the CMEs, such as the X-ray flare intensity and the properties of type II and type III radio emissions, may help to reduce the false alarm rate. We also use CME parameters calculated from an ellipsoidal shell fit to multi-spacecraft CME shock observations for a smaller number of events to predict the SEP intensity. We calculate skill scores for each case and assess whether the Richardson et al. (2014) formula, using additional observations to reduce the false alarm rate, has any potential as a SEP prediction tool, assuming that the required observations could be acquired sufficiently rapidly following the onset of the related solar event/CME.

  10. Heart rate variability predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in intensive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... is co-published by Medpharm Publications, NISC (Pty) Ltd and Taylor & Francis, and Informa business .... univariable logistic regression for each of the candidate predictor .... diagnostic and prognostic tool in anesthesia and intensive care.

  11. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Eva Guérin; Michelle S. Fortier

    2012-01-01

    There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE)] i...

  12. Determination of intensity functions for predicting subsidence from coal mining, potash mining, and groundwater withdrawal using the influence function technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triplett, T; Yurchak, D [Twin Cities Research Center, Bureau of Mines, US Dept. of the Interior, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents research, conducted by the Bureau of Mines, on modifying the influence function method to predict subsidence. According to theory, this technique must incorporate an intensity function to represent the relative significance of the causes of subsidence. This paper shows that the inclusion of a reasonable intensity function increases the accuracy of the technique, then presents the required functions for case studies of longwall coal mining subsidence in Illinois, USA, potash mining subsidence in new Mexico, USA, and subsidence produced by ground water withdrawal in California, USA. Finally, the paper discusses a method to predict the resultant strain from a simply measured site constant and ground curvatures calculated by the technique. (orig.)

  13. Determination of intensity functions for predicting subsidence from coal mining, potash mining, and groundwater withdrawal using the influence function technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triplett, T.; Yurchak, D. [Twin Cities Research Center, Bureau of Mines, US Dept. of the Interior, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents research, conducted by the Bureau of Mines, on modifying the influence function method to predict subsidence. According to theory, this technique must incorporate an intensity function to represent the relative significance of the causes of subsidence. This paper shows that the inclusion of a reasonable intensity function increases the accuracy of the technique, then presents the required functions for case studies of longwall coal mining subsidence in Illinois, USA, potash mining subsidence in new Mexico, USA, and subsidence produced by ground water withdrawal in California, USA. Finally, the paper discusses a method to predict the resultant strain from a simply measured site constant and ground curvatures calculated by the technique. (orig.)

  14. Predicting lower body power from vertical jump prediction equations for loaded jump squats at different intensities in men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Glenn A; Pustina, Andrew A; Mikat, Richard P; Kernozek, Thomas W

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of estimating peak lower body power from a maximal jump squat using 3 different vertical jump prediction equations. Sixty physically active college students (30 men, 30 women) performed jump squats with a weighted bar's applied load of 20, 40, and 60% of body mass across the shoulders. Each jump squat was simultaneously monitored using a force plate and a contact mat. Peak power (PP) was calculated using vertical ground reaction force from the force plate data. Commonly used equations requiring body mass and vertical jump height to estimate PP were applied such that the system mass (mass of body + applied load) was substituted for body mass. Jump height was determined from flight time as measured with a contact mat during a maximal jump squat. Estimations of PP (PP(est)) for each load and for each prediction equation were compared with criterion PP values from a force plate (PP(FP)). The PP(est) values had high test-retest reliability and were strongly correlated to PP(FP) in both men and women at all relative loads. However, only the Harman equation accurately predicted PP(FP) at all relative loads. It can therefore be concluded that the Harman equation may be used to estimate PP of a loaded jump squat knowing the system mass and peak jump height when more precise (and expensive) measurement equipment is unavailable. Further, high reliability and correlation with criterion values suggest that serial assessment of power production across training periods could be used for relative assessment of change by either of the prediction equations used in this study.

  15. Prediction of modified Mercalli intensity from PGA, PGV, moment magnitude, and epicentral distance using several nonlinear statistical algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Diego A.; Hurtado, Jorge E.; Bedoya-Ruíz, Daniel Alveiro

    2012-07-01

    Despite technological advances in seismic instrumentation, the assessment of the intensity of an earthquake using an observational scale as given, for example, by the modified Mercalli intensity scale is highly useful for practical purposes. In order to link the qualitative numbers extracted from the acceleration record of an earthquake and other instrumental data such as peak ground velocity, epicentral distance, and moment magnitude on the one hand and the modified Mercalli intensity scale on the other, simple statistical regression has been generally employed. In this paper, we will employ three methods of nonlinear regression, namely support vector regression, multilayer perceptrons, and genetic programming in order to find a functional dependence between the instrumental records and the modified Mercalli intensity scale. The proposed methods predict the intensity of an earthquake while dealing with nonlinearity and the noise inherent to the data. The nonlinear regressions with good estimation results have been performed using the "Did You Feel It?" database of the US Geological Survey and the database of the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data for the California region.

  16. Disentangling Intensity from Breadth of Science Interest: What Predicts Learning Behaviors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathgate, Meghan; Schunn, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Overall interest in science has been argued to drive learner participation and engagement. However, there are other important aspects of interest such as breadth of interest within a science domain (e.g., biology, earth science). We demonstrate that intensity of science interest is separable from topic breadth using surveys from a sample of 600…

  17. Bitterness intensity prediction of berberine hydrochloride using an electronic tongue and a GA-BP neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruixin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Zhang, Lu; Gao, Xiaojie; Li, Huiling; Shi, Junhan; Li, Xuelin

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to predict the bitterness intensity of a drug using an electronic tongue (e-tongue). The model drug of berberine hydrochloride was used to establish a bitterness prediction model (BPM), based on the taste evaluation of bitterness intensity by a taste panel, the data provided by the e-tongue and a genetic algorithm-back-propagation neural network (GA-BP) modeling method. The modeling characteristics of the GA-BP were compared with those of multiple linear regression, partial least square regression and BP methods. The determination coefficient of the BPM was 0.99965±0.00004, the root mean square error of cross-validation was 0.1398±0.0488 and the correlation coefficient of the cross-validation between the true and predicted values was 0.9959±0.0027. The model is superior to the other three models based on these indicators. In conclusion, the model established in this study has a high fitting degree and may be used for the bitterness prediction modeling of berberine hydrochloride of different concentrations. The model also provides a reference for the generation of BPMs of other drugs. Additionally, the algorithm of the study is able to conduct a rapid and accurate quantitative analysis of the data provided by the e-tongue.

  18. The development of a quality prediction system for aluminum laser welding to measure plasma intensity using photodiodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Ji Young [Technical Research Center, Hyundai Steel Company, Dangjin (Korea, Republic of); Sohn, Yong Ho [Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando (United States); Park, Young Whan; Kwak, Jae Seob [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Lightweight metals have been used to manufacture the body panels of cars to reduce the weight of car bodies. Typically, aluminum sheets are welded together, with a focus on weld quality assurance. A weld quality prediction system for the laser welding of aluminum was developed in this research to maximize welding production. The behavior of the plasma was also analyzed, dependent on various welding conditions. The light intensity of the plasma was altered with heat input and wire feed rate conditions, and the strength of the weld and sensor signals correlated closely for this heat input condition. Using these characteristics, a new algorithm and program were developed to evaluate the weld quality. The design involves a combinatory algorithm using a neural network model for the prediction of tensile strength from measured signals and a fuzzy multi-feature pattern recognition algorithm for the weld quality classification to improve predictability of the system.

  19. The development of a quality prediction system for aluminum laser welding to measure plasma intensity using photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Ji Young; Sohn, Yong Ho; Park, Young Whan; Kwak, Jae Seob

    2016-01-01

    Lightweight metals have been used to manufacture the body panels of cars to reduce the weight of car bodies. Typically, aluminum sheets are welded together, with a focus on weld quality assurance. A weld quality prediction system for the laser welding of aluminum was developed in this research to maximize welding production. The behavior of the plasma was also analyzed, dependent on various welding conditions. The light intensity of the plasma was altered with heat input and wire feed rate conditions, and the strength of the weld and sensor signals correlated closely for this heat input condition. Using these characteristics, a new algorithm and program were developed to evaluate the weld quality. The design involves a combinatory algorithm using a neural network model for the prediction of tensile strength from measured signals and a fuzzy multi-feature pattern recognition algorithm for the weld quality classification to improve predictability of the system

  20. Computerized prediction of intensive care unit discharge after cardiac surgery: development and validation of a Gaussian processes model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meyfroidt Geert

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The intensive care unit (ICU length of stay (LOS of patients undergoing cardiac surgery may vary considerably, and is often difficult to predict within the first hours after admission. The early clinical evolution of a cardiac surgery patient might be predictive for his LOS. The purpose of the present study was to develop a predictive model for ICU discharge after non-emergency cardiac surgery, by analyzing the first 4 hours of data in the computerized medical record of these patients with Gaussian processes (GP, a machine learning technique. Methods Non-interventional study. Predictive modeling, separate development (n = 461 and validation (n = 499 cohort. GP models were developed to predict the probability of ICU discharge the day after surgery (classification task, and to predict the day of ICU discharge as a discrete variable (regression task. GP predictions were compared with predictions by EuroSCORE, nurses and physicians. The classification task was evaluated using aROC for discrimination, and Brier Score, Brier Score Scaled, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration. The regression task was evaluated by comparing median actual and predicted discharge, loss penalty function (LPF ((actual-predicted/actual and calculating root mean squared relative errors (RMSRE. Results Median (P25-P75 ICU length of stay was 3 (2-5 days. For classification, the GP model showed an aROC of 0.758 which was significantly higher than the predictions by nurses, but not better than EuroSCORE and physicians. The GP had the best calibration, with a Brier Score of 0.179 and Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of 0.382. For regression, GP had the highest proportion of patients with a correctly predicted day of discharge (40%, which was significantly better than the EuroSCORE (p Conclusions A GP model that uses PDMS data of the first 4 hours after admission in the ICU of scheduled adult cardiac surgery patients was able to predict discharge from the ICU as a

  1. Intense rainfalls prediction models for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidney Pereira

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Rain intensity data are necessary to increase security of hydraulic projects. The objective of this study was to determine the relationships among intensity-duration-frequency (IDF and Bell’s model for the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The equations were obtained by disaggregation of 24 h rainfall data from 136 rain stations available in the National Water Agency (ANA data base. Employing Gumbel distribution, the rainfalls were estimated for each time duration and for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, and thereafter for each season. The coefficients of IDF relationships and Bell’s models were adjusted by the minimum square method, for all seasons evaluated. The coefficients of determination and Willmott agreement index exceeded 0.98 and 0.85, respectively, for all stations, which classifies the adjustment of the rainfall models as great.

  2. Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure and Intensity Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones, including genesis, intensity change, and extratropical transition. A secondary objective is to understand... storm -centered assimilation algorithm. Basic research in Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the...COMPLETED For the four storms consider (Nuri, Jangmi, Sinlaku, and Hagupit), an 80-member EnKF has been cycled on observations (surface, rawinsondes, GPS

  3. Predicting job-seeking intensity and job-seeking intention in the sample of unemployed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Zorica

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study Ajzen' theory (1991 of planned behavior was used to predict job - seek intention and behavior among unemployed people (N = 650. In addition to theory of planned behavior variables (job - seek attitude, subjective norm, self - efficacy and controllability of job seek process we used several other psychological (financial pressure, self - mastery, self - esteem and depression and demographic (gender, age, education, marriage and lent of unemployment variables to build a model of predictors for both criterion variables. Financial pressure, intention to seek employment, job seek - self - efficacy, job - seek controllability, marriage and job - seek attitude predicted job - seeking behavior, while attitude toward job - seeking, subjective norm, job - seek self - efficacy and financial pressure predicted job seek - intention. Results are discussed in light of theory of planned behavior, current research of job - seeking behavior and recommendations are made for practice.

  4. Predicting Calcium Values for Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients in Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Variables and Fuzzy Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Khalili-Zadeh-Mahani

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reducing unnecessary laboratory tests is an essential issue in the Intensive Care Unit. One solution for this issue is to predict the value of a laboratory test to specify the necessity of ordering the tests. The aim of this paper was to propose a clinical decision support system for predicting laboratory tests values. Calcium laboratory tests of three categories of patients, including upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and unspecified hemorrhage of gastrointestinal tract, have been selected as the case studies for this research. Method: In this research, the data have been collected from MIMIC-II database. For predicting calcium laboratory values, a Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno model is used and the input variables of the model are heart rate and previous value of calcium laboratory test. Results: The results showed that the values of calcium laboratory test for the understudy patients were predictable with an acceptable accuracy. In average, the mean absolute errors of the system for the three categories of the patients are 0.27, 0.29, and 0.28, respectively. Conclusion: In this research, using fuzzy modeling and two variables of heart rate and previous calcium laboratory values, a clinical decision support system was proposed for predicting laboratory values of three categories of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Using these two clinical values as input variables, the obtained results were acceptable and showed the capability of the proposed system in predicting calcium laboratory values. For achieving better results, the impact of more input variables should be studied. Since, the proposed system predicts the laboratory values instead of just predicting the necessity of the laboratory tests; it was more generalized than previous studies. So, the proposed method let the specialists make the decision depending on the condition of each patient.

  5. Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    troposphere. Volcanic sul- fur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide vapor molecules are photo- oxidized in the LS, forming gaseous sulphuric acid, which in...proximity to the U.S. East Coast. The COAMPS-TC prediction captures the large areal extent of the precipitation field, as well as its asymmetry about

  6. Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Bian Ma

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

  7. Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, Mutian; Kebreab, Ermias; Hristov, Alexander N

    2018-01-01

    data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH4production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH4production (g/day per cow), yield...

  8. Specific Disgust Sensitivities Differentially Predict Interest in Careers of Varying Procedural-Intensity among Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consedine, Nathan S.; Windsor, John A.

    2014-01-01

    Mismatches between the needs of public health systems and student interests have led to renewed study on the factors predicting career specializations among medical students. While most work examines career and lifestyle values, emotional proclivities may be important; disgust sensitivity may help explain preferences for careers with greater and…

  9. A new risk prediction model for critical care: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, David A; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Short, Alasdair; Rowan, Kathy

    2007-04-01

    To develop a new model to improve risk prediction for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. Prospective cohort study. The setting was 163 adult, general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, December 1995 to August 2003. Patients were 216,626 critical care admissions. None. The performance of different approaches to modeling physiologic measurements was evaluated, and the best methods were selected to produce a new physiology score. This physiology score was combined with other information relating to the critical care admission-age, diagnostic category, source of admission, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before admission-to develop a risk prediction model. Modeling interactions between diagnostic category and physiology score enabled the inclusion of groups of admissions that are frequently excluded from risk prediction models. The new model showed good discrimination (mean c index 0.870) and fit (mean Shapiro's R 0.665, mean Brier's score 0.132) in 200 repeated validation samples and performed well when compared with recalibrated versions of existing published risk prediction models in the cohort of patients eligible for all models. The hypothesis of perfect fit was rejected for all models, including the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model, as is to be expected in such a large cohort. The ICNARC model demonstrated better discrimination and overall fit than existing risk prediction models, even following recalibration of these models. We recommend it be used to replace previously published models for risk adjustment in the UK.

  10. External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

  11. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  12. [Model to predict staffing for anesthesiology and post-anesthesia intensive care units and pain clinics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canet, J; Moral, V; Villalonga, A; Pelegrí, D; Gomar, C; Montero, A

    2001-01-01

    Human resources account for a large part of the budgets of anesthesia and post-anesthesia intensive care units and pain clinics (A-PICU-PC). Adequate staffing is a key factor in providing for both effective care and professional staff development. Changes in professional responsibilities have rendered obsolete the concept of one anesthesiologist per operating room. Duties must be analyzed objectively to facilitate understanding between hospital administrators and A-PICU-PC chiefs of service when assigning human resources. The Catalan Society of Anesthesiology, Post-anesthesia Intensive Care and Pain Therapy has developed a model for estimating requirements for A-PICU-PC staffing based on three factors: 1) Definition of staff positions that must be filled and criteria for assigning human resources; 2) Estimation of non-care-related time required by the department for training, teaching, research and internal management, and 3) Estimation of staff required to cover absences from work for vacations, personal leave or illness. The model revealed that the ratio of number of staff positions to number of persons employed by an A-PICU-PC is approximately 1.3. Differences in the nature of services managed by an A-PICU-PC or the type of hospital might change the ratio slightly. The model can be applied universally, independently of differences that might exist among departments. Widespread application would allow adoption of a common language to be used by health care managers and A-PICU-PC departments when discussing a basis for consensus about our specialty.

  13. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  14. Dose to Larynx Predicts for Swallowing Complications After Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caglar, Hale B.; Tishler, Roy B.; Othus, Megan; Burke, Elaine; Li Yi; Goguen, Laura; Wirth, Lori J.; Haddad, Robert I.; Norris, Carl M.; Court, Laurence E.; Aninno, Donald J. D.; Posner, Marshall R.; Allen, Aaron M.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate early swallowing after intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and determine factors correlating with aspiration and/or stricture. Methods and Materials: Consecutive patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between September 2004 and August 2006 at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute/Brigham and Women's Hospital were evaluated with institutional review board approval. Patients underwent swallowing evaluation after completion of therapy; including video swallow studies. The clinical- and treatment-related variables were examined for correlation with aspiration or strictures, as well as doses to the larynx, pharyngeal constrictor muscles, and cervical esophagus. The correlation was assessed with logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 96 patients were evaluated. Their median age was 55 years, and 79 (82%) were men. The primary site of cancer was the oropharynx in 43, hypopharynx/larynx in 17, oral cavity in 13, nasopharynx in 11, maxillary sinus in 2, and unknown primary in 10. Of the 96 patients, 85% underwent definitive RT and 15% postoperative RT. Also, 28 patients underwent induction chemotherapy followed by concurrent chemotherapy, 59 received concurrent chemotherapy, and 9 patients underwent RT alone. The median follow-up was 10 months. Of the 96 patients, 31 (32%) had clinically significant aspiration and 36 (37%) developed a stricture. The radiation dose-volume metrics, including the volume of the larynx receiving ≥50 Gy (p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively) and volume of the inferior constrictor receiving ≥50 Gy (p = 0.05 and p = 0.02, respectively) were significantly associated with both aspiration and stricture. The mean larynx dose correlated with aspiration (p = 0.003). Smoking history was the only clinical factor to correlate with stricture (p = 0.05) but not aspiration. Conclusion: Aspiration and stricture are common side effects after

  15. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  16. Loading Intensity Prediction by Velocity and the OMNI-RES 0-10 Scale in Bench Press.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naclerio, Fernando; Larumbe-Zabala, Eneko

    2017-02-01

    Naclerio, F and Larumbe-Zabala, E. Loading intensity prediction by velocity and the OMNI-RES 0-10 scale in bench press. J Strength Cond Res 32(1): 323-329, 2017-This study examined the possibility of using movement velocity and the perceived exertion as indicators of relative load in the bench press (BP) exercise. A total of 308 young, healthy, resistance trained athletes (242 men and 66 women) performed a progressive strength test up to the one repetition maximum for the individual determination of the full load-velocity and load-exertion relationships. Longitudinal regression models were used to predict the relative load from the average velocity (AV) and the OMNI-Resistance Exercise Scales (OMNI-RES 0-10 scale), considering sets as the time-related variable. Load associated with the AV and the OMNI-RES 0-10 scale value expressed after performing a set of 1-3 repetitions were used to construct 2 adjusted predictive equations: Relative load = 107.75 - 62.97 × average velocity; and Relative load = 29.03 + 7.26 × OMNI-RES 0-10 scale value. The 2 models were capable of estimating the relative load with an accuracy of 84 and 93%, respectively. These findings confirm the ability of the 2 calculated regression models, using load-velocity and load-exertion from the OMNI-RES 0-10 scale, to accurately predict strength performance in BP.

  17. The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novac, M; Dragoescu, Alice; Stanculescu, Andreea; Duca, Lucica; Cernea, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns.

  18. A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model η(θ), where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y=η(θ)+ϵ, where ϵ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in η(⋅), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model η(⋅). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory. (paper)

  19. Enhanced presurgical pain temporal summation response predicts post-thoracotomy pain intensity during the acute postoperative phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman-Fogel, Irit; Granovsky, Yelena; Crispel, Yonathan; Ben-Nun, Alon; Best, Lael Anson; Yarnitsky, David; Granot, Michal

    2009-06-01

    Recent evidence points to an association between experimental pain measures obtained preoperatively and acute postoperative pain (POP). We hypothesized that pain temporal summation (TS) might be an additional predictor for POP insofar as it represents the neuroplastic changes that occur in the central nervous system following surgery. Therefore, a wide range of psychophysical tests (TS to heat and mechanical repetitive stimuli, pain threshold, and suprathreshold pain estimation) and personality tests (pain catastrophizing and anxiety levels) were administered prior to thoracotomy in 84 patients. POP ratings were evaluated on the 2nd and 5th days after surgery at rest (spontaneous pain) and in response to activity (provoked pain). Linear regression models revealed that among all assessed variables, enhanced TS and higher pain scores for mechanical stimulation were significantly associated with greater provoked POP intensity (overall r2 = 0.225, P = .008). Patients who did not demonstrate TS to both modalities reported lower scores of provoked POP as compared with patients who demonstrated TS in response to at least 1 modality (F = 4.59 P = .013). Despite the moderate association between pain catastrophizing and rest POP, none of the variables predicted the spontaneous POP intensity. These findings suggest that individual susceptibility toward a greater summation response may characterize patients who are potentially vulnerable to augmented POP. This study proposed the role of pain temporal summation assessed preoperatively as a significant psychophysical predictor for acute postoperative pain intensity. The individual profile of enhanced pain summation is associated with the greater likelihood of higher postoperative pain scores.

  20. Can Energy Cost During Low-Intensity Resistance Exercise be Predicted by the OMNI-RES Scale?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vianna, Jefferson M.; Reis, Victor M.; Saavedra, Francisco; Damasceno, Vinicius; Silva, Sérgio G.; Goss, Fredric

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of the OMNI-RES scale to predict energy cost (EC) at low intensity in four resistance exercises (RE). 17 male recreational body builders (age = 26.6 ± 4.9 years; height = 177.7 ± 0.1 cm; body weight = 79.0 ± 11.1 kg and percent body fat = 10.5 ± 4.6%) served as subjects. Initially tests to determine 1RM for four resistance exercises (bench press, half squat, lat pull down and triceps extension) were administered. Subjects also performed resistance exercise at 12, 16, 20, and 24% of 1RM at a rate of 40 bpm until volitional exhaustion. Oxygen uptake (VO2) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) using the OMNI-RES were obtained during and after all RE. EC was calculated using VO2 and the caloric values of VO2 for non-protein RER. Regression analyses were performed for every RE, using EC as the dependent and RPE as the predictor variable. The triceps extension, lat pull down and bench press, RPE correlated strongly with EC (R > 0.97) and predicted EC with a error of less than 0.2 kcal.min−1. In conclusion, RPE using the OMNI-RES scale can be considered as an accurate indicator of EC in the bench press, lat pull down and triceps extension performed by recreational bodybuilders, provided lower intensities are used (up to 24% of 1-RM) and provided each set of exercise is performed for the maximal sustainable duration. It would be interesting in future studies to consider having the subjects exercise at low intensities for longer durations than those in the present study. PMID:23486188

  1. Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavem K

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Knut Stavem,1–3 Henrik Hoel,4 Stein Arve Skjaker,5 Rolf Haagensen6 1Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Medical Division, 3Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, 4Department of Surgery, Sykehuset Innlandet Kongsvinger, Kongsvinger, 5Section of Orthopaedic Emergency, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 6Department of Anaesthesiology, Surgical Division, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway Purpose: This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II model.Patients and methods: Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c-statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic.Results: The CCI was complete (n=959 when calculated from chart than from administrative data (n=839. Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596–0.714. The c-statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit.Conclusion: The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement

  2. Multivariate analysis of factors predicting prostate dose in intensity-modulated radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomita, Tsuneyuki [Division of Radiology, Osaka Red Cross Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Nakamura, Mitsuhiro, E-mail: m_nkmr@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiation Oncology and Image-applied Therapy, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Hirose, Yoshinori; Kitsuda, Kenji; Notogawa, Takuya; Miki, Katsuhito [Division of Radiology, Osaka Red Cross Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Nakamura, Kiyonao; Ishigaki, Takashi [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka Red Cross Hospital, Osaka (Japan)

    2014-01-01

    We conducted a multivariate analysis to determine relationships between prostate radiation dose and the state of surrounding organs, including organ volumes and the internal angle of the levator ani muscle (LAM), based on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images after bone matching. We analyzed 270 CBCT data sets from 30 consecutive patients receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer. With patients in the supine position on a couch with the HipFix system, data for center of mass (COM) displacement of the prostate and the state of individual organs were acquired and compared between planning CT and CBCT scans. Dose distributions were then recalculated based on CBCT images. The relative effects of factors on the variance in COM, dose covering 95% of the prostate volume (D{sub 95%}), and percentage of prostate volume covered by the 100% isodose line (V{sub 100%}) were evaluated by a backward stepwise multiple regression analysis. COM displacement in the anterior-posterior direction (COM{sub AP}) correlated significantly with the rectum volume (δVr) and the internal LAM angle (δθ; R = 0.63). Weak correlations were seen for COM in the left-right (R = 0.18) and superior-inferior directions (R = 0.31). Strong correlations between COM{sub AP} and prostate D{sub 95%} and V{sub 100%} were observed (R ≥ 0.69). Additionally, the change ratios in δVr and δθ remained as predictors of prostate D{sub 95%} and V{sub 100%}. This study shows statistically that maintaining the same rectum volume and LAM state for both the planning CT simulation and treatment is important to ensure the correct prostate dose in the supine position with bone matching.

  3. SMART-COP: a tool for predicting the need for intensive respiratory or vasopressor support in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Patrick G P; Wolfe, Rory; Whitby, Michael; Fine, Michael J; Fuller, Andrew J; Stirling, Robert; Wright, Alistair A; Ramirez, Julio A; Christiansen, Keryn J; Waterer, Grant W; Pierce, Robert J; Armstrong, John G; Korman, Tony M; Holmes, Peter; Obrosky, D Scott; Peyrani, Paula; Johnson, Barbara; Hooy, Michelle; Grayson, M Lindsay

    2008-08-01

    Existing severity assessment tools, such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 (tool based on confusion, urea level, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age >or=65 years), predict 30-day mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and have limited ability to predict which patients will require intensive respiratory or vasopressor support (IRVS). The Australian CAP Study (ACAPS) was a prospective study of 882 episodes in which each patient had a detailed assessment of severity features, etiology, and treatment outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify features at initial assessment that were associated with receipt of IRVS. These results were converted into a simple points-based severity tool that was validated in 5 external databases, totaling 7464 patients. In ACAPS, 10.3% of patients received IRVS, and the 30-day mortality rate was 5.7%. The features statistically significantly associated with receipt of IRVS were low systolic blood pressure (2 points), multilobar chest radiography involvement (1 point), low albumin level (1 point), high respiratory rate (1 point), tachycardia (1 point), confusion (1 point), poor oxygenation (2 points), and low arterial pH (2 points): SMART-COP. A SMART-COP score of >or=3 points identified 92% of patients who received IRVS, including 84% of patients who did not need immediate admission to the intensive care unit. Accuracy was also high in the 5 validation databases. Sensitivities of PSI and CURB-65 for identifying the need for IRVS were 74% and 39%, respectively. SMART-COP is a simple, practical clinical tool for accurately predicting the need for IRVS that is likely to assist clinicians in determining CAP severity.

  4. Pulmonary embolism in intensive care unit: Predictive factors, clinical manifestations and outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahloul Mabrouk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To determine predictive factors, clinical and demographics characteristics of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE in ICU, and to identify factors associated with poor outcome in the hospital and in the ICU. Methods : During a four-year prospective study, a medical committee of six ICU physicians prospectively examined all available data for each patient in order to classify patients according to the level of clinical suspicion of pulmonary thromboembolism. During the study periods, all patients admitted to our ICU were classified into four groups. The first group includes all patients with confirmed PE; the second group includes some patients without clinical manifestations of PE; the third group includes patients with suspected and not confirmed PE and the fourth group includes all patients with only deep vein thromboses (DVTs without suspicion of PE. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed either by a high-probability ventilation/perfusion (V/Q scan or by a spiral computed tomography (CT scan showing one or more filling defects in the pulmonary artery or in its branches. The diagnosis was also confirmed by echocardiography when a thrombus in the pulmonary artery was observed. Results : During the study periods, 4408 patients were admitted in our ICU. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed in 87 patients (1.9%. The mean delay of development of PE was 7.8 ± 9.5 days. On the day of PE diagnosis, clinical examination showed that 50 patients (57.5% were hypotensive, 63 (72.4% have SIRS, 15 (17.2% have clinical manifestations of DVT and 71 (81.6% have respiratory distress requiring mechanical ventilation. In our study, intravenous unfractionated heparin was used in 81 cases (93.1% and low molecular weight heparins were used in 4 cases (4.6%. The mean ICU stay was 20.2 ± 25.3 days and the mean hospital stay was 25.5 ± 25 days. The mortality rate in ICU was 47.1% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 52.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that

  5. Predictive value of T2 relative signal intensity for response to somatostatin analogs in newly diagnosed acromegaly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Ming; Zhang, Qilin [Fudan University, Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Liu, Wenjuan; Li, Yiming; Zhang, Zhaoyun; Ye, Hongying; He, Min; Lu, Bin; Yang, Yeping [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Wang, Meng [Fudan University, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Soochow University, Division of Endocrinology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Suzhou (China); Zhu, Jingjing [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Neuropathology, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Ma, Zengyi; He, Wenqiang; Li, Shiqi; Shou, Xuefei; Qiao, Nidan; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Zhao, Yao; Wang, Yongfei [Fudan University, Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Yao, Zhenwei [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Lu, Yun [Fudan University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China)

    2016-11-15

    The difficulty of predicting the efficacy of somatostatin analogs (SSA) is not fully resolved. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the predictive value of relative signal intensity (rSI) on T1- and T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the short-term efficacy (3 months) of SSA therapy in patients with active acromegaly and assessed the correlation between MRI rSI and expression of somatostatin receptors (SSTR). This was a retrospective review of prospectively recorded data. Ninety-two newly diagnosed patients (37 males and 55 females) with active acromegaly were recruited. All patients were treated with pre-surgical SSA, followed by reassessment and transspenoidal surgery. rSI values were generated by calculating the ratio of SI in the tumor to the SI of normal frontal white matter. The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoff of rSI to determine the efficacy of SSA. The correlation between rSI and expression of SSTR2/5 was analyzed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. T2 rSI was strongly correlated with biochemical sensitivity to SSA. The cutoff value of T2 rSI to distinguish biochemical sensitivity was 1.205, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 81.5 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 77.3 %. No correlation was found between MRI and tumor size sensitivity. Moreover, T2 rSI was negatively correlated with the expression of SSTR5. T2 rSI correlates with the expression of SSTR5 and quantitatively predicts the biochemical efficacy of SSA in acromegaly. (orig.)

  6. Predictive value of T2 relative signal intensity for response to somatostatin analogs in newly diagnosed acromegaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Ming; Zhang, Qilin; Liu, Wenjuan; Li, Yiming; Zhang, Zhaoyun; Ye, Hongying; He, Min; Lu, Bin; Yang, Yeping; Wang, Meng; Zhu, Jingjing; Ma, Zengyi; He, Wenqiang; Li, Shiqi; Shou, Xuefei; Qiao, Nidan; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Zhao, Yao; Wang, Yongfei; Yao, Zhenwei; Lu, Yun

    2016-01-01

    The difficulty of predicting the efficacy of somatostatin analogs (SSA) is not fully resolved. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the predictive value of relative signal intensity (rSI) on T1- and T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the short-term efficacy (3 months) of SSA therapy in patients with active acromegaly and assessed the correlation between MRI rSI and expression of somatostatin receptors (SSTR). This was a retrospective review of prospectively recorded data. Ninety-two newly diagnosed patients (37 males and 55 females) with active acromegaly were recruited. All patients were treated with pre-surgical SSA, followed by reassessment and transspenoidal surgery. rSI values were generated by calculating the ratio of SI in the tumor to the SI of normal frontal white matter. The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoff of rSI to determine the efficacy of SSA. The correlation between rSI and expression of SSTR2/5 was analyzed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. T2 rSI was strongly correlated with biochemical sensitivity to SSA. The cutoff value of T2 rSI to distinguish biochemical sensitivity was 1.205, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 81.5 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 77.3 %. No correlation was found between MRI and tumor size sensitivity. Moreover, T2 rSI was negatively correlated with the expression of SSTR5. T2 rSI correlates with the expression of SSTR5 and quantitatively predicts the biochemical efficacy of SSA in acromegaly. (orig.)

  7. Predictive value of T2 relative signal intensity for response to somatostatin analogs in newly diagnosed acromegaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ming; Zhang, Qilin; Liu, Wenjuan; Wang, Meng; Zhu, Jingjing; Ma, Zengyi; He, Wenqiang; Li, Shiqi; Shou, Xuefei; Li, Yiming; Zhang, Zhaoyun; Ye, Hongying; He, Min; Lu, Bin; Yao, Zhenwei; Lu, Yun; Qiao, Nidan; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Yang, Yeping; Zhao, Yao; Wang, Yongfei

    2016-11-01

    The difficulty of predicting the efficacy of somatostatin analogs (SSA) is not fully resolved. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the predictive value of relative signal intensity (rSI) on T1- and T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the short-term efficacy (3 months) of SSA therapy in patients with active acromegaly and assessed the correlation between MRI rSI and expression of somatostatin receptors (SSTR). This was a retrospective review of prospectively recorded data. Ninety-two newly diagnosed patients (37 males and 55 females) with active acromegaly were recruited. All patients were treated with pre-surgical SSA, followed by reassessment and transspenoidal surgery. rSI values were generated by calculating the ratio of SI in the tumor to the SI of normal frontal white matter. The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoff of rSI to determine the efficacy of SSA. The correlation between rSI and expression of SSTR2/5 was analyzed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. T2 rSI was strongly correlated with biochemical sensitivity to SSA. The cutoff value of T2 rSI to distinguish biochemical sensitivity was 1.205, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 81.5 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 77.3 %. No correlation was found between MRI and tumor size sensitivity. Moreover, T2 rSI was negatively correlated with the expression of SSTR5. T2 rSI correlates with the expression of SSTR5 and quantitatively predicts the biochemical efficacy of SSA in acromegaly.

  8. Intensity of Multilingual Language Use Predicts Cognitive Performance in Some Multilingual Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keijzer, Merel; de Bot, Kees

    2018-01-01

    Cognitive advantages for bilinguals have inconsistently been observed in different populations, with different operationalisations of bilingualism, cognitive performance, and the process by which language control transfers to cognitive control. This calls for studies investigating which aspects of multilingualism drive a cognitive advantage, in which populations and under which conditions. This study reports on two cognitive tasks coupled with an extensive background questionnaire on health, wellbeing, personality, language knowledge and language use, administered to 387 older adults in the northern Netherlands, a small but highly multilingual area. Using linear mixed effects regression modeling, we find that when different languages are used frequently in different contexts, enhanced attentional control is observed. Subsequently, a PLS regression model targeting also other influential factors yielded a two-component solution whereby only more sensitive measures of language proficiency and language usage in different social contexts were predictive of cognitive performance above and beyond the contribution of age, gender, income and education. We discuss these findings in light of previous studies that try to uncover more about the nature of bilingualism and the cognitive processes that may drive an advantage. With an unusually large sample size our study advocates for a move away from dichotomous, knowledge-based operationalisations of multilingualism and offers new insights for future studies at the individual level. PMID:29783764

  9. Rapid improvements in emotion regulation predict intensive treatment outcome for patients with bulimia nervosa and purging disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Danielle E; Trottier, Kathryn; Olmsted, Marion P

    2017-10-01

    Rapid and substantial behavior change (RSBC) early in cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for eating disorders is the strongest known predictor of treatment outcome. Rapid change in other clinically relevant variables may also be important. This study examined whether rapid change in emotion regulation predicted treatment outcomes, beyond the effects of RSBC. Participants were diagnosed with bulimia nervosa or purging disorder (N = 104) and completed ≥6 weeks of CBT-based intensive treatment. Hierarchical regression models were used to test whether rapid change in emotion regulation variables predicted posttreatment outcomes, defined in three ways: (a) binge/purge abstinence; (b) cognitive eating disorder psychopathology; and (c) depression symptoms. Baseline psychopathology and emotion regulation difficulties and RSBC were controlled for. After controlling for baseline variables and RSBC, rapid improvement in access to emotion regulation strategies made significant unique contributions to the prediction of posttreatment binge/purge abstinence, cognitive psychopathology of eating disorders, and depression symptoms. Individuals with eating disorders who rapidly improve their belief that they can effectively modulate negative emotions are more likely to achieve a variety of good treatment outcomes. This supports the formal inclusion of emotion regulation skills early in CBT, and encouraging patient beliefs that these strategies are helpful. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Prediction and early detection of delirium in the intensive care unit by using heart rate variability and machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jooyoung; Cho, Dongrae; Park, Jaesub; Na, Se Hee; Kim, Jongin; Heo, Jaeseok; Shin, Cheung Soo; Kim, Jae-Jin; Park, Jin Young; Lee, Boreom

    2018-03-27

    Delirium is an important syndrome found in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), however, it is usually under-recognized during treatment. This study was performed to investigate whether delirious patients can be successfully distinguished from non-delirious patients by using heart rate variability (HRV) and machine learning. Electrocardiography data of 140 patients was acquired during daily ICU care, and HRV data were analyzed. Delirium, including its type, severity, and etiologies, was evaluated daily by trained psychiatrists. HRV data and various machine learning algorithms including linear support vector machine (SVM), SVM with radial basis function (RBF) kernels, linear extreme learning machine (ELM), ELM with RBF kernels, linear discriminant analysis, and quadratic discriminant analysis were utilized to distinguish delirium patients from non-delirium patients. HRV data of 4797 ECGs were included, and 39 patients had delirium at least once during their ICU stay. The maximum classification accuracy was acquired using SVM with RBF kernels. Our prediction method based on HRV with machine learning was comparable to previous delirium prediction models using massive amounts of clinical information. Our results show that autonomic alterations could be a significant feature of patients with delirium in the ICU, suggesting the potential for the automatic prediction and early detection of delirium based on HRV with machine learning.

  11. Air-sea heat flux control on the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass intensity and implications for its prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Junying; Shi, Jie; Guo, Xinyu; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong

    2018-01-01

    The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM), which occurs during summer in the central Yellow Sea, plays an important role in the hydrodynamic field, nutrient cycle and biological species. Based on water temperature observations during the summer from 1978 to 1998 in the western Yellow Sea, five specific YSCWM years were identified, including two strong years (1984 and 1985), two weak years (1989 and 1995) and one normal year (1992). Using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the YSCWM formation processes in these five years were simulated and compared with observations. In general, the YSCWM began forming in spring, matured in summer and gradually disappeared in autumn of every year. The 8 °C isotherm was used to indicate the YSCWM boundary. The modelled YSCWM areas in the two strong years were approximately two times larger than those in the two weak years. Based on the simulations in the weak year of 1995, ten numerical experiments were performed to quantify the key factors influencing the YSCWM intensity by changing the initial water condition in the previous autumn, air-sea heat flux, wind, evaporation, precipitation and sea level pressure to those in the strong year of 1984, respectively. The results showed that the air-sea heat flux was the dominant factor influencing the YSCWM intensity, which contributed about 80% of the differences of the YSCWM average water temperature at a depth of 50 m. In addition, the air-sea heat flux in the previous winter had a determining effect, contributing more than 50% of the differences between the strong and weak YSCWM years. Finally, a simple formula for predicting the YSCWM intensity was established by using the key influencing factors, i.e., the sea surface temperature before the cooling season and the air-sea heat flux during the cooling season from the previous December to the current February. With this formula, instead of a complicated numerical model, we were able to roughly predict the YSCWM intensity for the

  12. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  13. Systemizers Are Better Code-Breakers: Self-Reported Systemizing Predicts Code-Breaking Performance in Expert Hackers and Na?ve Participants

    OpenAIRE

    Harvey, India; Bolgan, Samuela; Mosca, Daniel; McLean, Colin; Rusconi, Elena

    2016-01-01

    Studies on hacking have typically focused on motivational aspects and general personality traits of the individuals who engage in hacking; little systematic research has been conducted on predispositions that may be associated not only with the choice to pursue a hacking career but also with performance in either naïve or expert populations. Here, we test the hypotheses that two traits that are typically enhanced in autism spectrum disorders—attention to detail and systemizing—may be positive...

  14. Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis in Intensive Care Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubia-Olaskoaga, Felix; Maraví-Poma, Enrique; Urreta-Barallobre, Iratxe; Ramírez-Puerta, María-Rosario; Mourelo-Fariña, Mónica; Marcos-Neira, María-Pilar; García-García, Miguel Ángel

    2018-03-01

    Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in Intensive Care Units (ICU). A prospective multicenter observational study, in 1 year period, in 46 international ICUs (EPAMI study). adults admitted to an ICU with AP and at least one organ failure. Development of a multivariate prediction model, using the worst data of the stay in ICU, based in multivariate analysis, simple imputation in a development cohort. The model was validated in another cohort. 374 patients were included (mortality of 28.9%). Variables with statistical significance in multivariate analysis were age, no alcoholic and no biliary etiology, development of shock, development of respiratory failure, need of continuous renal replacement therapy, and intra-abdominal pressure. The model created with these variables presented an AUC of ROC curve of 0.90 (CI 95% 0.81-0.94) in the validation cohort. We developed a multivariable prediction model, and AP cases could be classified as low mortality risk (between 2 and 9.5 points, mortality of 1.35%), moderate mortality risk (between 10 and 12.5 points, 28.92% of mortality), and high mortality risk (13 points of more, mortality of 88.37%). Our model presented better AUC of ROC curve than APACHE II (0.91 vs 0.80) and SOFA in the first 24 h (0.91 vs 0.79). We developed and validated a multivariate prediction model, which can be applied in any moment of the stay in ICU, with better discriminatory power than APACHE II and SOFA in the first 24 h. Copyright © 2018 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Predicting outcome of rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade following cardio-thoracic surgery in the intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beishuizen Albertus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives Pericardial tamponade after cardiac surgery is difficult to diagnose, thereby rendering timing of rethoracotomy hard. We aimed at identifying factors predicting the outcome of surgery for suspected tamponade after cardio-thoracic surgery, in the intensive care unit (ICU. Methods Twenty-one consecutive patients undergoing rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade in the ICU, admitted after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, were identified for this retrospective study. We compared patients with or without a decrease in severe haemodynamic compromise after rethoracotomy, according to the cardiovascular component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score. Results A favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy was observed in 11 (52% of patients and characterized by an increase in cardiac output, and less fluid and norepinephrine requirements. Prior to surgery, the absence of treatment by heparin, a minimum cardiac index 2 and a positive fluid balance (> 4,683 mL were predictive of a beneficial haemodynamic response. During surgery, the evacuation of clots and > 500 mL of pericardial fluid was associated with a beneficial haemodynamic response. Echocardiographic parameters were of limited help in predicting the postoperative course, even though 9 of 13 pericardial clots found at surgery were detected preoperatively. Conclusion Clots and fluids in the pericardial space causing regional tamponade and responding to surgical evacuation after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, are difficult to diagnose preoperatively, by clinical, haemodynamic and even echocardiographic evaluation in the ICU. Only absence of heparin treatment, a large positive fluid balance and low cardiac index predicted a favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy. These data might help in deciding and timing of reinterventions after primary cardio-thoracic surgery.

  16. A theoretical model predicting the intensity of emitted light per unit of x-ray exposure in radiographic screens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsoukos, S; Kateris, A; Kalivas, N; Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Department of Medical Physics, School of Medicine, University of Patras, 265 00 pAtras (Greece); Kandarakis, I; Gavouras, D [Department of Medical Instrumentation Technology, Technological Educational Institution of Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    A theoretical model predicting the intensity of light emitted by x-ray imaging phosphor screens per unit of area and time over incident x-ray flux (absolute efficiency) was developed. The model takes into account : A) the structure of the screens which consists of luminescent grains embedded in a binding matrix. B) the direct deposition of energy by x-ray absorption effects.. C) the re-absorption of K fluorescence characteristic x-rays produced when the x-ray energy exceeds the energy of the K absorption edge of the phosphor material. To test the model a set of (Gd,La)2O2S:Tb phosphor screens was prepared by sedimentation in the laboratory. Experimental absolute efficiency data were obtained at x-ray tube voltage range from 40 to 160 kVp. The coincidence between experimental and theoretical results were satisfactory. (authors) 7 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Predicting Dropout from Intensive Outpatient Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Binge Eating Disorder Using Pre-treatment Characteristics: A Naturalistic Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vroling, Maartje S; Wiersma, Femke E; Lammers, Mirjam W; Noorthoorn, Eric O

    2016-11-01

    Dropout rates in binge eating disorder (BED) treatment are high (17-30%), and predictors of dropout are unknown. Participants were 376 patients following an intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy programme for BED, 82 of whom (21.8%) dropped out of treatment. An exploratory logistic regression was performed using eating disorder variables, general psychopathology, personality and demographics to identify predictors of dropout. Binge eating pathology, preoccupations with eating, shape and weight, social adjustment, agreeableness, and social embedding appeared to be significant predictors of dropout. Also, education showed an association to dropout. This is one of the first studies investigating pre-treatment predictors for dropout in BED treatment. The total explained variance of the prediction model was low, yet the model correctly classified 80.6% of cases, which is comparable to other dropout studies in eating disorders. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  18. Performance of the FV3-powered Next Generation Global Prediction System for Harvey and Irma, and a vision for a "beyond weather timescale" prediction system for long-range hurricane track and intensity predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, S. J.; Bender, M.; Harris, L.; Hazelton, A.

    2017-12-01

    The performance of a GFDL developed FV3-based Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) for Harvey and Irma will be reported. We will report on aspects of track and intensity errors (vs operational models), heavy precipitation (Harvey), rapid intensification, and simulated structure (in comparison with ground based radar), and point to a need of a future long-range (from day-5 up to 30 days) physically based ensemble hurricane prediction system for providing useful information to the forecasters, beyond the usual weather timescale.

  19. Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

  20. Success/Failure Prediction of Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation in Intensive Care Units. Using Multiclassifiers and Feature Selection Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Félix; González-Robledo, Javier; Sánchez-Hernández, Fernando; Moreno-García, María N

    2016-05-17

    This paper addresses the problem of decision-making in relation to the administration of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) in intensive care units. Data mining methods were employed to find out the factors influencing the success/failure of NIMV and to predict its results in future patients. These artificial intelligence-based methods have not been applied in this field in spite of the good results obtained in other medical areas. Feature selection methods provided the most influential variables in the success/failure of NIMV, such as NIMV hours, PaCO2 at the start, PaO2 / FiO2 ratio at the start, hematocrit at the start or PaO2 / FiO2 ratio after two hours. These methods were also used in the preprocessing step with the aim of improving the results of the classifiers. The algorithms provided the best results when the dataset used as input was the one containing the attributes selected with the CFS method. Data mining methods can be successfully applied to determine the most influential factors in the success/failure of NIMV and also to predict NIMV results in future patients. The results provided by classifiers can be improved by preprocessing the data with feature selection techniques.

  1. Fear of food prospectively predicts drive for thinness in an eating disorder sample recently discharged from intensive treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A; Brosof, Leigh C; Ma, Jackie; Fewell, Laura; Lenze, Eric J

    2017-12-01

    Fears of food are common in individuals with eating disorders and contribute to the high relapse rates. However, it is unknown how fears of food contribute to eating disorder symptoms across time, potentially contributing to an increased likelihood of relapse. Participants diagnosed with an eating disorder (N=168) who had recently completed intensive treatment were assessed after discharge and one month later regarding fear of food, eating disorder symptoms, anxiety sensitivity, and negative affect. Cross lagged path analysis was utilized to determine if fear of food predicted subsequent eating disorder symptoms one month later. Fear of food-specifically, anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating-predicted drive for thinness, a core symptom domain of eating disorders. These relationships held while accounting for anxiety sensitivity and negative affect. There is a specific, direct relationship between anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating and drive for thinness. Future research should test if interventions designed to target fear of food can decrease drive for thinness and thereby prevent relapse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Bathyphotometer bioluminescence potential measurements: A framework for characterizing flow agitators and predicting flow-stimulated bioluminescence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latz, Michael I.; Rohr, Jim

    2013-07-01

    BBP. This correlation, when further scaled by pipe diameter, effectively predicted bioluminescence intensity in fully developed turbulent flow in a 0.83-cm i.d. pipe. Determining similar correlations between other bathyphotometer flow agitators and flow fields will allow bioluminescence potential measurements to become a more powerful tool for the oceanographic community.

  3. SU-F-T-342: Dosimetric Constraint Prediction Guided Automatic Mulit-Objective Optimization for Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, T; Zhou, L; Li, Y

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: For intensity modulated radiotherapy, the plan optimization is time consuming with difficulties of selecting objectives and constraints, and their relative weights. A fast and automatic multi-objective optimization algorithm with abilities to predict optimal constraints and manager their trade-offs can help to solve this problem. Our purpose is to develop such a framework and algorithm for a general inverse planning. Methods: There are three main components contained in this proposed multi-objective optimization framework: prediction of initial dosimetric constraints, further adjustment of constraints and plan optimization. We firstly use our previously developed in-house geometry-dosimetry correlation model to predict the optimal patient-specific dosimetric endpoints, and treat them as initial dosimetric constraints. Secondly, we build an endpoint(organ) priority list and a constraint adjustment rule to repeatedly tune these constraints from their initial values, until every single endpoint has no room for further improvement. Lastly, we implement a voxel-independent based FMO algorithm for optimization. During the optimization, a model for tuning these voxel weighting factors respecting to constraints is created. For framework and algorithm evaluation, we randomly selected 20 IMRT prostate cases from the clinic and compared them with our automatic generated plans, in both the efficiency and plan quality. Results: For each evaluated plan, the proposed multi-objective framework could run fluently and automatically. The voxel weighting factor iteration time varied from 10 to 30 under an updated constraint, and the constraint tuning time varied from 20 to 30 for every case until no more stricter constraint is allowed. The average total costing time for the whole optimization procedure is ∼30mins. By comparing the DVHs, better OAR dose sparing could be observed in automatic generated plan, for 13 out of the 20 cases, while others are with competitive

  4. SU-F-T-342: Dosimetric Constraint Prediction Guided Automatic Mulit-Objective Optimization for Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, T; Zhou, L [Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong (China); Li, Y [Beihang University, Beijing, Beijing (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: For intensity modulated radiotherapy, the plan optimization is time consuming with difficulties of selecting objectives and constraints, and their relative weights. A fast and automatic multi-objective optimization algorithm with abilities to predict optimal constraints and manager their trade-offs can help to solve this problem. Our purpose is to develop such a framework and algorithm for a general inverse planning. Methods: There are three main components contained in this proposed multi-objective optimization framework: prediction of initial dosimetric constraints, further adjustment of constraints and plan optimization. We firstly use our previously developed in-house geometry-dosimetry correlation model to predict the optimal patient-specific dosimetric endpoints, and treat them as initial dosimetric constraints. Secondly, we build an endpoint(organ) priority list and a constraint adjustment rule to repeatedly tune these constraints from their initial values, until every single endpoint has no room for further improvement. Lastly, we implement a voxel-independent based FMO algorithm for optimization. During the optimization, a model for tuning these voxel weighting factors respecting to constraints is created. For framework and algorithm evaluation, we randomly selected 20 IMRT prostate cases from the clinic and compared them with our automatic generated plans, in both the efficiency and plan quality. Results: For each evaluated plan, the proposed multi-objective framework could run fluently and automatically. The voxel weighting factor iteration time varied from 10 to 30 under an updated constraint, and the constraint tuning time varied from 20 to 30 for every case until no more stricter constraint is allowed. The average total costing time for the whole optimization procedure is ∼30mins. By comparing the DVHs, better OAR dose sparing could be observed in automatic generated plan, for 13 out of the 20 cases, while others are with competitive

  5. One wouldn't expect an expert bowler to hit only two pins: Hierarchical predictive processing of agent-caused events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, Lieke; Kwisthout, Johan; van Pelt, Stan; van Rooij, Iris; Bekkering, Harold

    2018-01-01

    Evidence is accumulating that our brains process incoming information using top-down predictions. If lower level representations are correctly predicted by higher level representations, this enhances processing. However, if they are incorrectly predicted, additional processing is required at higher levels to "explain away" prediction errors. Here, we explored the potential nature of the models generating such predictions. More specifically, we investigated whether a predictive processing model with a hierarchical structure and causal relations between its levels is able to account for the processing of agent-caused events. In Experiment 1, participants watched animated movies of "experienced" and "novice" bowlers. The results are in line with the idea that prediction errors at a lower level of the hierarchy (i.e., the outcome of how many pins fell down) slow down reporting of information at a higher level (i.e., which agent was throwing the ball). Experiments 2 and 3 suggest that this effect is specific to situations in which the predictor is causally related to the outcome. Overall, the study supports the idea that a hierarchical predictive processing model can account for the processing of observed action outcomes and that the predictions involved are specific to cases where action outcomes can be predicted based on causal knowledge.

  6. Predictive value of SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems for patient outcome in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Godinjak

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim is to determine SAPS II and APACHE II scores in medical intensive care unit (MICU patients, to compare them for prediction of patient outcome, and to compare with actual hospital mortality rates for different subgroups of patients. Methods. One hundred and seventy-four patients were included in this analysis over a oneyear period in the MICU, Clinical Center, University of Sarajevo. The following patient data were obtained: demographics, admission diagnosis, SAPS II, APACHE II scores and final outcome. Results. Out of 174 patients, 70 patients (40.2% died. Mean SAPS II and APACHE II scores in all patients were 48.4±17.0 and 21.6±10.3 respectively, and they were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. SAPS II >50.5 and APACHE II >27.5 can predict the risk of mortality in these patients. There was no statistically significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II vs APACHE II (p=0.501. A statistically significant positive correlation was established between the values of SAPS II and APACHE II (r=0.708; p=0.001. Patients with an admission diagnosis of sepsis/septic shock had the highest values of both SAPS II and APACHE II scores, and also the highest hospital mortality rate of 55.1%. Conclusion. Both APACHE II and SAPS II had an excellent ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors. There was no significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II and APACHE II. A positive correlation was established between them. Sepsis/septic shock patients had the highest predicted and observed hospital mortality rate.

  7. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  8. External validation of the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) risk prediction model in critical care units in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, David A; Lone, Nazir I; Haddow, Catriona; MacGillivray, Moranne; Khan, Angela; Cook, Brian; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2014-01-01

    Risk prediction models are used in critical care for risk stratification, summarising and communicating risk, supporting clinical decision-making and benchmarking performance. However, they require validation before they can be used with confidence, ideally using independently collected data from a different source to that used to develop the model. The aim of this study was to validate the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model using independently collected data from critical care units in Scotland. Data were extracted from the Scottish Intensive Care Society Audit Group (SICSAG) database for the years 2007 to 2009. Recoding and mapping of variables was performed, as required, to apply the ICNARC model (2009 recalibration) to the SICSAG data using standard computer algorithms. The performance of the ICNARC model was assessed for discrimination, calibration and overall fit and compared with that of the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model. There were 29,626 admissions to 24 adult, general critical care units in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2009. After exclusions, 23,269 admissions were included in the analysis. The ICNARC model outperformed APACHE II on measures of discrimination (c index 0.848 versus 0.806), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic 18.8 versus 214) and overall fit (Brier's score 0.140 versus 0.157; Shapiro's R 0.652 versus 0.621). Model performance was consistent across the three years studied. The ICNARC model performed well when validated in an external population to that in which it was developed, using independently collected data.

  9. A comparative analysis of predictive models of morbidity in intensive care unit after cardiac surgery – Part I: model planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biagioli Bonizella

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU. The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications. Methods Models based on Bayes rule, k-nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view. Results Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. k-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical. Conclusion Knowledge of model

  10. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  11. The Role of Parental Perceptions of Tic Frequency and Intensity in Predicting Tic-Related Functional Impairment in Youth with Chronic Tic Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espil, Flint M.; Capriotti, Matthew R.; Conelea, Christine A.; Woods, Douglas W.

    2014-01-01

    Tic severity is composed of several dimensions. Tic frequency and intensity are two such dimensions, but little empirical data exist regarding their relative contributions to functional impairment in those with Chronic Tic Disorders (CTD). The present study examined the relative contributions of these dimensions in predicting tic-related impairment across several psychosocial domains. Using data collected from parents of youth with CTD, multivariate regression analyses revealed that both tic frequency and intensity predicted tic-related impairment in several areas; including family and peer relationships, school interference, and social endeavors, even when controlling for the presence of comorbid anxiety symptoms and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder diagnostic status. Results showed that tic intensity predicted more variance across more domains than tic frequency. PMID:24395287

  12. The role of parental perceptions of tic frequency and intensity in predicting tic-related functional impairment in youth with chronic tic disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espil, Flint M; Capriotti, Matthew R; Conelea, Christine A; Woods, Douglas W

    2014-12-01

    Tic severity is composed of several dimensions. Tic frequency and intensity are two such dimensions, but little empirical data exist regarding their relative contributions to functional impairment in those with chronic tic disorders (CTD). The present study examined the relative contributions of these dimensions in predicting tic-related impairment across several psychosocial domains. Using data collected from parents of youth with CTD, multivariate regression analyses revealed that both tic frequency and intensity predicted tic-related impairment in several areas; including family and peer relationships, school interference, and social endeavors, even when controlling for the presence of comorbid anxiety symptoms and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder diagnostic status. Results showed that tic intensity predicted more variance across more domains than tic frequency.

  13. NNAlign: A Web-Based Prediction Method Allowing Non-Expert End-User Discovery of Sequence Motifs in Quantitative Peptide Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreatta, Massimo; Schafer-Nielsen, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2011-01-01

    Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have made it possible to generate both gene and protein sequence data at an unprecedented rate and scale thereby enabling entirely new "omics"-based approaches towards the analysis of complex biological processes. However, the amount and complexity...... to interpret large data sets. We have recently developed a method, NNAlign, which is generally applicable to any biological problem where quantitative peptide data is available. This method efficiently identifies underlying sequence patterns by simultaneously aligning peptide sequences and identifying motifs...... associated with quantitative readouts. Here, we provide a web-based implementation of NNAlign allowing non-expert end-users to submit their data (optionally adjusting method parameters), and in return receive a trained method (including a visual representation of the identified motif) that subsequently can...

  14. Plasma uric acid and tumor volume are highly predictive of outcome in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving intensity modulated radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Hui; Lin, Huan-Xin; Ge, Nan; Wang, Hong-Zhi; Sun, Rui; Hu, Wei-Han

    2013-01-01

    The combined predictive value of plasma uric acid and primary tumor volume in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) has not yet been determined. In this retrospective study, plasma uric acid level was measured after treatment in 130 histologically-proven NPC patients treated with IMRT. Tumor volume was calculated from treatment planning CT scans. Overall (OS), progression-free (PFS) and distant metastasis-free (DMFS) survival were compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log rank test, and Cox multivariate and univariate regression models were created. Patients with a small tumor volume (<27 mL) had a significantly better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a large tumor volume. Patients with a high post-treatment plasma uric acid level (>301 μmol/L) had a better DMFS, PFS and OS than patients with a low post-treatment plasma uric acid level. Patients with a small tumor volume and high post-treatment plasma uric acid level had a favorable prognosis compared to patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level (7-year overall OS, 100% vs. 48.7%, P <0.001 and PFS, 100% vs. 69.5%, P <0.001). Post-treatment plasma uric acid level and pre-treatment tumor volume have predictive value for outcome in NPC patients receiving IMRT. NPC patients with a large tumor volume and low post-treatment plasma uric acid level may benefit from additional aggressive treatment after IMRT

  15. Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

    2014-01-01

    To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age <18 years, the records of 1543 patients were analyzed using appropriate statistical methods. Both models overpredicted mortality in this cohort [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.06 using APACHE II and SAPS II respectively]. Patterns of predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) and 0.83 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) for APACHE II and SAPS II, respectively). There were wide variations in SMRs calculated for subgroups based on International Classification of Disease, 10(th) edition (standard deviation ± 0.27 for APACHE II and 0.30 for SAPS II). Lack of fit of data to the models and wide variation in SMRs in subgroups put a limitation on utility of these models as tools for assessing quality of care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

  16. Point-of-care testing on admission to the intensive care unit: lactate and glucose independently predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jan; Blobner, Manfred; Busch, Raymonde; Moser, Norman; Kochs, Eberhard; Luppa, Peter B

    2013-02-01

    The aim of the study was to retrospectively investigate whether parameters of routine point-of-care testing (POCT) predict hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Arterial blood analyses of 1551 patients on admission to the adult surgical ICU of the Technical University Munich were reviewed. POCT was performed on a blood gas analyser. The association between acid-base status and mortality was evaluated. Metabolic acidosis was defined by base excess (BE) lactate >50% of BE, anion gap (AG)-acidosis by AG >16 mmol/L, hyperchloraemic acidosis by chloride >115 mmol/L. Metabolic alkalosis was defined by BE ≥3 mmol/L. Logistic regression analysis identified variables independently associated with mortality. Overall mortality was 8.8%. Mortality was greater in male patients (p=0.012). Mean age was greater in non-survivors (p55 mm Hg (mortality 23.1%). Three hundred and seventy-seven patients presented with acidosis (mortality 11.4%), thereof 163 patients with lactic acidosis (mortality 19%). Mortality for alkalosis (174 patients) was 12.1%. Mean blood glucose level for non-survivors was higher compared to survivors (plactate, glucose, age, male gender as independent predictors of mortality. Lactate and glucose on ICU admission independently predict mortality. BE and AG failed as prognostic markers. Lactic acidosis showed a high mortality rate implying that lactate levels should be obtained on ICU admission. Prevalence of hyperchloraemic acidosis was low. Metabolic alkalosis was associated with an increased mortality. Further studies on this disturbance and its attendant high mortality are warranted.

  17. East London Modified-Broset as Decision-Making Tool to Predict Seclusion in Psychiatric Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Loi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Seclusion is a last resort intervention for management of aggressive behavior in psychiatric settings. There is no current objective and practical decision-making instrument for seclusion use on psychiatric wards. Our aim was to test the predictive and discriminatory characteristics of the East London Modified-Broset (ELMB, to delineate its decision-making profile for seclusion of adult psychiatric patients, and second to benchmark it against the psychometric properties of the Broset Violence Checklist (BVC. ELMB, an 8-item modified version of the 6-item BVC, was retrospectively employed to evaluate the seclusion decision-making process on two Psychiatric Intensive Care Units (patients n = 201; incidents n = 2,187. Data analyses were carried out using multivariate regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curves. Predictors of seclusion were: physical violence toward staff/patients OR = 24.2; non-compliance with PRN (pro re nata medications OR = 9.8; and damage to hospital property OR = 2.9. ROC analyses indicated that ELMB was significantly more accurate that BVC, with higher sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio. Results were similar across gender. The ELMB is a sensitive and specific instrument that can be used to guide the decision-making process when implementing seclusion.

  18. East London Modified-Broset as Decision-Making Tool to Predict Seclusion in Psychiatric Intensive Care Units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loi, Felice; Marlowe, Karl

    2017-01-01

    Seclusion is a last resort intervention for management of aggressive behavior in psychiatric settings. There is no current objective and practical decision-making instrument for seclusion use on psychiatric wards. Our aim was to test the predictive and discriminatory characteristics of the East London Modified-Broset (ELMB), to delineate its decision-making profile for seclusion of adult psychiatric patients, and second to benchmark it against the psychometric properties of the Broset Violence Checklist (BVC). ELMB, an 8-item modified version of the 6-item BVC, was retrospectively employed to evaluate the seclusion decision-making process on two Psychiatric Intensive Care Units (patients n  = 201; incidents n  = 2,187). Data analyses were carried out using multivariate regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Predictors of seclusion were: physical violence toward staff/patients OR = 24.2; non-compliance with PRN (pro re nata) medications OR = 9.8; and damage to hospital property OR = 2.9. ROC analyses indicated that ELMB was significantly more accurate that BVC, with higher sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio. Results were similar across gender. The ELMB is a sensitive and specific instrument that can be used to guide the decision-making process when implementing seclusion.

  19. The intensity of 18FDG uptake does not predict tumor growth in patients with metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terroir, Marie; Dercle, Laurent; Lumbroso, Jean; Baudin, Eric; Berdelou, Amandine; Deandreis, Desiree; Schlumberger, Martin; Leboulleux, Sophie [Gustave Roussy and Universite Paris Saclay, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Endocrine Oncology, Villejuif (France); Borget, Isabelle [University Paris Sud, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Gustave Roussy, Villejuif (France); Bidault, Francois [Gustave Roussy, Department of Radiology, Villejuif (France); Ricard, Marcel [Gustave Roussy, Department of Physic, Villejuif (France); Deschamps, Frederic; Tselikas, Lambros [Department of Interventional Radiology, Villejuif (France); Hartl, Dana [Gustave Roussy, Department of Surgery, Villejuif (France)

    2017-04-15

    In patients with metastatic differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake as well as age, tumor size and radioactive iodine (RAI) uptake are prognostic factors for survival. High FDG uptake is a poor prognostic factor and lesions with high FDG uptake are often considered aggressive, but the predictive value of FDG uptake for morphological progression is unknown. The principal aim of this retrospective single center study was to determine whether the intensity of FDG uptake was correlated on a per lesion analysis with tumor growth rate (TGR) expressed as the percentage of increase in tumor size during 1 year (1-year TGR). Fifty five patients with DTC were included between July 2012 and May 2014 with the following criteria: (i) at least one distant metastasis measuring ≥ 1 cm in diameter on CT scan (ii) evaluation by FDG-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) performed at our center (iii) at least one CT or another FDG-PET/CT performed 3 to 12 months after the reference FDG-PET/CT in the absence of systemic or local treatment between the two imaging procedures. One hundred and fifty-six metastatic lesions located in lungs (63), neck lymph nodes (28), chest lymph nodes (42), bone (11), liver (2) and other sites (12) were studied. The median size was 16 mm, median SUVmax/lesion: 8.7; median metabolic tumor volume/lesion (Metab.TV/lesion): 3.7 cm{sup 3}. The median 1-year TGR was 40.68 %. SUVmax and Metab.TV/lesion were not correlated to their 1-year TGR (p = 0.38 and p = 0.74 respectively). Among single patients with multiple lesions, the lesions with the highest SUVmax/lesion or the highest Metab.TV/lesion did not disclose the higher 1-year TGR. The intensity of FDG uptake on a per lesion analysis is not correlated to its 1-year TGR and cannot be used as a surrogate marker of tumour progression. (orig.)

  20. Systemizers Are Better Code-Breakers: Self-Reported Systemizing Predicts Code-Breaking Performance in Expert Hackers and Naïve Participants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, India; Bolgan, Samuela; Mosca, Daniel; McLean, Colin; Rusconi, Elena

    2016-01-01

    Studies on hacking have typically focused on motivational aspects and general personality traits of the individuals who engage in hacking; little systematic research has been conducted on predispositions that may be associated not only with the choice to pursue a hacking career but also with performance in either naïve or expert populations. Here, we test the hypotheses that two traits that are typically enhanced in autism spectrum disorders—attention to detail and systemizing—may be positively related to both the choice of pursuing a career in information security and skilled performance in a prototypical hacking task (i.e., crypto-analysis or code-breaking). A group of naïve participants and of ethical hackers completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient, including an attention to detail scale, and the Systemizing Quotient (Baron-Cohen et al., 2001, 2003). They were also tested with behavioral tasks involving code-breaking and a control task involving security X-ray image interpretation. Hackers reported significantly higher systemizing and attention to detail than non-hackers. We found a positive relation between self-reported systemizing (but not attention to detail) and code-breaking skills in both hackers and non-hackers, whereas attention to detail (but not systemizing) was related with performance in the X-ray screening task in both groups, as previously reported with naïve participants (Rusconi et al., 2015). We discuss the theoretical and translational implications of our findings. PMID:27242491

  1. Systemizers Are Better Code-Breakers: Self-Reported Systemizing Predicts Code-Breaking Performance in Expert Hackers and Naïve Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, India; Bolgan, Samuela; Mosca, Daniel; McLean, Colin; Rusconi, Elena

    2016-01-01

    Studies on hacking have typically focused on motivational aspects and general personality traits of the individuals who engage in hacking; little systematic research has been conducted on predispositions that may be associated not only with the choice to pursue a hacking career but also with performance in either naïve or expert populations. Here, we test the hypotheses that two traits that are typically enhanced in autism spectrum disorders-attention to detail and systemizing-may be positively related to both the choice of pursuing a career in information security and skilled performance in a prototypical hacking task (i.e., crypto-analysis or code-breaking). A group of naïve participants and of ethical hackers completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient, including an attention to detail scale, and the Systemizing Quotient (Baron-Cohen et al., 2001, 2003). They were also tested with behavioral tasks involving code-breaking and a control task involving security X-ray image interpretation. Hackers reported significantly higher systemizing and attention to detail than non-hackers. We found a positive relation between self-reported systemizing (but not attention to detail) and code-breaking skills in both hackers and non-hackers, whereas attention to detail (but not systemizing) was related with performance in the X-ray screening task in both groups, as previously reported with naïve participants (Rusconi et al., 2015). We discuss the theoretical and translational implications of our findings.

  2. Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

    2010-01-01

    -seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

  3. GOLD predictivity mapping in French Guiana using an expert-guided data-driven approach based on a regional-scale GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassard, Daniel; Billa, Mario; Lambert, Alain; Picot, Jean-Claude; Husson, Yves

    2008-05-01

    The realistic estimation of gold mining in French Guiana requires including the numerous illegal gold washing activities in predictivity mapping. The combination of a classical approach, based on the algebraic method of Knox-Robinson and Groves, with innovative processing grid-type geochemical and radiometric data, as well as cluster analysis technique provides a better understanding of the structure of studied mineralized areas.

  4. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  5. Predicting dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

    2005-06-01

    This work investigates dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli that are modulated by noise using a stochastic auditory nerve model. Based on a hypothesized monotonic relationship between loudness and the number of spikes elicited by a stimulus, theoretical prediction of the uncomfortable level has previously been determined by comparing spike counts to a fixed threshold, Nucl. However, no specific rule for determining Nucl has been suggested. Our work determines the uncomfortable level based on the excitation pattern of the neural response in a normal ear. The number of fibers corresponding to the portion of the basilar membrane driven by a stimulus at an uncomfortable level in a normal ear is related to Nucl at an uncomfortable level of the electrical stimulus. Intensity discrimination limens are predicted using signal detection theory via the probability mass function of the neural response and via experimental simulations. The results show that the uncomfortable level for pulse-train stimuli increases slightly as noise level increases. Combining this with our previous threshold predictions, we hypothesize that the dynamic range for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli should increase with additive noise. However, since our predictions indicate that intensity discrimination under noise degrades, overall intensity coding performance may not improve significantly.

  6. Systemizers are better code-breakers:Self-reported systemizing predicts code-breaking performance in expert hackers and naïve participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    India eHarvey

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Studies on hacking have typically focused on motivational aspects and general personality traits of the individuals who engage in hacking; little systematic research has been conducted on predispositions that may be associated not only with the choice to pursue a hacking career but also with performance in either naïve or expert populations. Here we test the hypotheses that two traits that are typically enhanced in autism spectrum disorders - attention to detail and systemizing - may be positively related to both the choice of pursuing a career in information security and skilled performance in a prototypical hacking task (i.e. crypto-analysis or code-breaking. A group of naïve participants and of ethical hackers completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient, including an attention to detail scale, and the Systemizing Quotient (Baron-Cohen et al., 2001; Baron-Cohen et al., 2003. They were also tested with behavioural tasks involving code-breaking and a control task involving security x-ray image interpretation. Hackers reported significantly higher systemizing and attention to detail than non-hackers. We found a positive relation between self-reported systemizing (but not attention to detail and code-breaking skills in both hackers and non-hackers, whereas attention to detail (but not systemizing was related with performance in the x-ray screening task in both groups, as previously reported with naïve participants (Rusconi et al., 2015. We discuss the theoretical and translational implications of our findings.

  7. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  8. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  9. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

  10. Expert evaluation and prediction of the radioecological state of the environment in the area of the radiation plume from the Chernobyl' nuclear power station (aquatic ecosystems)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    On the basis of experimental data on radionuclide distribution in the components of the aquatic ecosystems within and outside the 30 km zone around the Chernobyl power plant after the reactor accident the exposure doses for aquatic organisms in the area of the radiation plume have been estimated. In the Kiev reservoir the predicted exposure doses for most aquatic organisms do not exceed 0.1-1.0 mrad/h, in the river Pripyat' the exposure doses for fish are about 50 mrad/h and in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl power station the highest exposure doses, up to 5 rad/h in a number of locations were registered

  11. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  12. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  13. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  14. Deep nets vs expert designed features in medical physics: An IMRT QA case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interian, Yannet; Rideout, Vincent; Kearney, Vasant P; Gennatas, Efstathios; Morin, Olivier; Cheung, Joey; Solberg, Timothy; Valdes, Gilmer

    2018-03-30

    The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of Deep Neural Networks against a technique designed by domain experts in the prediction of gamma passing rates for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Quality Assurance (IMRT QA). A total of 498 IMRT plans across all treatment sites were planned in Eclipse version 11 and delivered using a dynamic sliding window technique on Clinac iX or TrueBeam Linacs. Measurements were performed using a commercial 2D diode array, and passing rates for 3%/3 mm local dose/distance-to-agreement (DTA) were recorded. Separately, fluence maps calculated for each plan were used as inputs to a convolution neural network (CNN). The CNNs were trained to predict IMRT QA gamma passing rates using TensorFlow and Keras. A set of model architectures, inspired by the convolutional blocks of the VGG-16 ImageNet model, were constructed and implemented. Synthetic data, created by rotating and translating the fluence maps during training, was created to boost the performance of the CNNs. Dropout, batch normalization, and data augmentation were utilized to help train the model. The performance of the CNNs was compared to a generalized Poisson regression model, previously developed for this application, which used 78 expert designed features. Deep Neural Networks without domain knowledge achieved comparable performance to a baseline system designed by domain experts in the prediction of 3%/3 mm Local gamma passing rates. An ensemble of neural nets resulted in a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.70 ± 0.05 and the domain expert model resulted in a 0.74 ± 0.06. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning can predict IMRT QA passing rates by automatically designing features from the fluence maps without human expert supervision. Predictions from CNNs are comparable to a system carefully designed by physicist experts. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  15. Prediction of the intensity and diversity of day-to-day activities among people with schizophrenia using parameters obtained during acute hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipskaya-Velikovsky, Lena; Jarus, Tal; Kotler, Moshe

    2017-06-01

    Participation in day-to-day activities of people with schizophrenia is restricted, causing concern to them, their families, service providers and the communities at large. Participation is a significant component of health and recovery; however, factors predicting participation are still not well established. This study examines whether the parameters obtained during acute hospitalization can predict the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. In-patients with chronic schizophrenia (N = 104) were enrolled into the study and assessed for cognitive functioning, functional capacity in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and symptoms. Six months after discharge, the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities were evaluated (N = 70). Multiple correlations were found between parameters obtained during hospitalization and participation diversity, but not participation intensity. The model that is better suited to the prediction of participation diversity contains cognitive ability of construction, negative symptoms and number of previous hospitalizations. The total explained variance is 37.8% (F 3,66  =   14.99, p process for the prediction of participation diversity in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Participation diversity is best predicted through a set of factors reflecting personal and environmental indicators. Implications for rehabilitation Results of in-patient evaluations can predict the diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Higher prediction of participation diversity is obtained using a holistic evaluation model that includes assessments for cognitive abilities, negative symptoms severity and number of hospitalizations.

  16. The relative abundance of predicted genes associated with ammonia-oxidation, nitrate reduction, and biomass decomposition in mineral soil are altered by intensive timber harvest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushinski, R. M.; Zhou, Y.; Gentry, T. J.; Boutton, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are substantially altered by anthropogenic disturbances such as timber harvest and land conversion, with effects being observed in carbon and nutrient pools as well as biogeochemical processes. Furthermore, the desire to develop renewable energy sources in the form of biomass extraction from logging residues may result in alterations in soil community structure and function. While the impact of forest management on soil physicochemical properties of the region has been studied, its' long-term effect on soil bacterial community composition and metagenomic potential is relatively unknown, especially at deeper soil depths. This study investigates how intensive organic matter removal intensities associated with timber harvest influence decadal-scale alterations in bacterial community structure and functional potential in the upper 1-m of the soil profile, 18 years post-harvest in a Pinus taeda L. forest of eastern Texas. Amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene was used in conjunction with soil chemical analyses to evaluate treatment-induced differences in community composition and potential environmental drivers of associated change. Furthermore, functional potential was assessed by using amplicon data to make metagenomic predictions. Results indicate that increasing organic matter removal intensity leads to altered community composition and the relative abundance of dominant OTUs annotated to Burkholderia and Aciditerrimonas. The relative abundance of predicted genes associated with dissimilatory nitrate reduction and denitrification were highest in the most intensively harvested treatment while genes involved in nitrification were significantly lower in the most intensively harvested treatment. Furthermore, genes associated with glycosyltransferases were significantly reduced with increasing harvest intensity while polysaccharide lyases increased. These results imply that intensive organic matter removal may create

  17. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  18. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  19. Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

    1994-01-01

    We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

  20. Prediction of galactic cosmic ray intensity variation for a few (up to 10-12 years ahead on the basis of convection-diffusion and drift model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available We determine the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region, radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic ray (CR long-term variation, depending on particle energy, the level of solar activity (SA and general solar magnetic field. This important information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and the predictions which are regularly published elsewhere of expected SA variation in the near future and prediction of next future SA cycle, we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. We show that by this method we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years, and may be more, in dependence for what period can be made definite prediction of SA galactic cosmic ray intensity variation in the interplanetary space on different distances from the Sun, in the Earth's magnetosphere, and in the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes.

  1. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  2. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  3. The Role of Parental Perceptions of Tic Frequency and Intensity in Predicting Tic-Related Functional Impairment in Youth with Chronic Tic Disorders

    OpenAIRE

    Espil, Flint M.; Capriotti, Matthew R.; Conelea, Christine A.; Woods, Douglas W.

    2014-01-01

    Tic severity is composed of several dimensions. Tic frequency and intensity are two such dimensions, but little empirical data exist regarding their relative contributions to functional impairment in those with Chronic Tic Disorders (CTD). The present study examined the relative contributions of these dimensions in predicting tic-related impairment across several psychosocial domains. Using data collected from parents of youth with CTD, multivariate regression analyses revealed that both tic ...

  4. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  5. SU-E-T-802: Verification of Implanted Cardiac Pacemaker Doses in Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy: Dose Prediction Accuracy and Reduction Effect of a Lead Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Konkuk University Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, J [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To verify delivered doses on the implanted cardiac pacemaker, predicted doses with and without dose reduction method were verified using the MOSFET detectors in terms of beam delivery and dose calculation techniques in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods: The pacemaker doses for a patient with a tongue cancer were predicted according to the beam delivery methods [step-and-shoot (SS) and sliding window (SW)], intensity levels for dose optimization, and dose calculation algorithms. Dosimetric effects on the pacemaker were calculated three dose engines: pencil-beam convolution (PBC), analytical anisotropic algorithm (AAA), and Acuros-XB. A lead shield of 2 mm thickness was designed for minimizing irradiated doses to the pacemaker. Dose variations affected by the heterogeneous material properties of the pacemaker and effectiveness of the lead shield were predicted by the Acuros-XB. Dose prediction accuracy and the feasibility of the dose reduction strategy were verified based on the measured skin doses right above the pacemaker using mosfet detectors during the radiation treatment. Results: The Acuros-XB showed underestimated skin doses and overestimated doses by the lead-shield effect, even though the lower dose disagreement was observed. It led to improved dose prediction with higher intensity level of dose optimization in IMRT. The dedicated tertiary lead sheet effectively achieved reduction of pacemaker dose up to 60%. Conclusion: The current SS technique could deliver lower scattered doses than recommendation criteria, however, use of the lead sheet contributed to reduce scattered doses.Thin lead plate can be a useful tertiary shielder and it could not acuse malfunction or electrical damage of the implanted pacemaker in IMRT. It is required to estimate more accurate scattered doses of the patient with medical device to design proper dose reduction strategy.

  6. SU-E-T-802: Verification of Implanted Cardiac Pacemaker Doses in Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy: Dose Prediction Accuracy and Reduction Effect of a Lead Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J; Chung, J

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To verify delivered doses on the implanted cardiac pacemaker, predicted doses with and without dose reduction method were verified using the MOSFET detectors in terms of beam delivery and dose calculation techniques in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods: The pacemaker doses for a patient with a tongue cancer were predicted according to the beam delivery methods [step-and-shoot (SS) and sliding window (SW)], intensity levels for dose optimization, and dose calculation algorithms. Dosimetric effects on the pacemaker were calculated three dose engines: pencil-beam convolution (PBC), analytical anisotropic algorithm (AAA), and Acuros-XB. A lead shield of 2 mm thickness was designed for minimizing irradiated doses to the pacemaker. Dose variations affected by the heterogeneous material properties of the pacemaker and effectiveness of the lead shield were predicted by the Acuros-XB. Dose prediction accuracy and the feasibility of the dose reduction strategy were verified based on the measured skin doses right above the pacemaker using mosfet detectors during the radiation treatment. Results: The Acuros-XB showed underestimated skin doses and overestimated doses by the lead-shield effect, even though the lower dose disagreement was observed. It led to improved dose prediction with higher intensity level of dose optimization in IMRT. The dedicated tertiary lead sheet effectively achieved reduction of pacemaker dose up to 60%. Conclusion: The current SS technique could deliver lower scattered doses than recommendation criteria, however, use of the lead sheet contributed to reduce scattered doses.Thin lead plate can be a useful tertiary shielder and it could not acuse malfunction or electrical damage of the implanted pacemaker in IMRT. It is required to estimate more accurate scattered doses of the patient with medical device to design proper dose reduction strategy

  7. The role of total cell-free DNA in predicting outcomes among trauma patients in the intensive care unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gögenur, Mikail; Burcharth, Jakob; Gögenur, Ismail

    2017-01-01

    searched Pubmed, Embase, Scopus and the Cochrane Central Register for Controlled Trials and reference lists of relevant articles for studies that assessed the prognostic value of cell-free DNA detection in trauma patients in the intensive care unit. Outcomes of interest included survival, posttraumatic...

  8. Predicting dropout from intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy for binge eating disorder using pre-treatment characteristics: A naturalistic study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vroling, M.S.; Wiersma, F.E.; Lammers, M.W.; Noorthoorn, E.O.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Dropout rates in binge eating disorder (BED) treatment are high (17-30%), and predictors of dropout are unknown. Method: Participants were 376 patients following an intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy programme for BED, 82 of whom (21.8%) dropped out of treatment. An

  9. The Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score predicts unplanned intensive care unit patient readmission: initial development and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gajic, Ognjen; Malinchoc, Michael; Comfere, Thomas B.; Harris, Marcelline R.; Achouiti, Ahmed; Yilmaz, Murat; Schultz, Marcus J.; Hubmayr, Rolf D.; Afessa, Bekele; Farmer, J. Christopher

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Unplanned readmission of hospitalized patients to an intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with a worse outcome, but our ability to identify who is likely to deteriorate after ICU dismissal is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a numerical index, named the

  10. Sequential organ failure assessment scoring and prediction of patient's outcome in Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary care hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditi Jain

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: SOFA score is a simple, but effective prognostic indicator and evaluator for patient progress in ICU. Day 1 SOFA can triage the patients into risk categories. For further management, mean and maximum score help determine the severity of illness and can act as a guide for the intensity of therapy required for each patient.

  11. Objectively measured sedentary time may predict insulin resistance independent of moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helmerhorst, Hendrik J. F.; Wijndaele, Katrien; Brage, Søren; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Ekelund, Ulf

    2009-01-01

    To examine the prospective association between objectively measured time spent sedentary and insulin resistance and whether this association is independent of moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and other relevant confounders. This was a population-based study (Medical Research

  12. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  13. Predicting the Trajectories of Perceived Pain Intensity in Southern Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The Role of Religiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fei; Park, Nan Sook; Wardian, Jana; Lee, Beom S; Roff, Lucinda L; Klemmack, David L; Parker, Michael W; Koenig, Harold G; Sawyer, Patricia L; Allman, Richard M

    2013-11-01

    This study focuses on the identification of multiple latent trajectories of pain intensity, and it examines how religiousness is related to different classes of pain trajectory. Participants were 720 community-dwelling older adults who were interviewed at four time points over a 3-year period. Overall, intensity of pain decreased over 3 years. Analysis using latent growth mixture modeling (GMM) identified three classes of pain: (1) increasing ( n = 47); (2) consistently unchanging ( n = 292); and (3) decreasing ( n = 381). Higher levels of intrinsic religiousness (IR) at baseline were associated with higher levels of pain at baseline, although it attenuated the slope of pain trajectories in the increasing pain group. Higher service attendance at baseline was associated with a higher probability of being in the decreasing pain group. The increasing pain group and the consistently unchanging group reported more negative physical and mental health outcomes than the decreasing pain group.

  14. The weight of flash chromatography: A tool to predict its mass intensity from thin-layer chromatography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freddy Pessel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Purification by flash chromatography strongly impacts the greenness of a process. Unfortunately, due to the lack of the relevant literature data, very often this impact cannot be assessed thus preventing the comparison of the environmental factors affecting the syntheses. We developed a simple mathematical approach to evaluate the minimum mass intensity of flash chromatography from the retention factor values determined by thin-layer chromatography.

  15. Waste disposal experts meet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1959-01-15

    Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

  16. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  17. Predictive factors of local-regional recurrences following parotid sparing intensity modulated or 3D conformal radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Mary; Jabbari, Siavash; Lin, Alexander; Bradford, Carol R.; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Teknos, Theodoros N.; Worden, Francis P.; Tsien, Christina; Schipper, Matthew J.; Wolf, Gregory T.; Dawson, Laura A.; Eisbruch, Avraham

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: Predictive factors for local-regional (LR) failures after parotid-sparing, Intensity modulated (IMRT) or 3D conformal radiotherapy for head and neck (HN) cancers were assessed. Patients and methods: One hundred and fifty-eight patients with mostly stages III-IV HN squamous cell carcinoma underwent curative bilateral neck irradiation aimed at sparing the parotid glands. Patient, tumor, and treatment factors were analyzed as predictive factors for LR failure. Results: Twenty-three patients had LR recurrence (19 in-field and four marginal). No differences were found in the doses delivered to the PTVs of patients with or without in-field recurrences. In univariate analysis, tumor site was highly predictive for LR failure in both postoperative and definitive RT patients. In postoperative RT patients, pathologic tumor size, margin status, extracapsular extension (ECE) and number of lymph node metastases, were also significantly predictive. Multivariate analysis showed tumor site (oropharynx vs. other sites) to be a significant predictor in all patients, and involved margins and number of involved lymph nodes in postoperative patients. Conclusions: Clinical rather than dosimetric factors predicted for LR failures in this series, and were similar to those reported following standard RT. These factors may aid in the selection of patients for studies of treatment intensification using IMRT

  18. Short-term prediction of threatening and violent behaviour in an Acute Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit based on patient and environment characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morken Gunnar

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of the present study were to investigate clinically relevant patient and environment-related predictive factors for threats and violent incidents the first three days in a PICU population based on evaluations done at admittance. Methods In 2000 and 2001 all 118 consecutive patients were assessed at admittance to a Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU. Patient-related conditions as actuarial data from present admission, global clinical evaluations by physician at admittance and clinical nurses first day, a single rating with an observer rated scale scoring behaviours that predict short-term violence in psychiatric inpatients (The Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC at admittance, and environment-related conditions as use of segregation or not were related to the outcome measure Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R. A multiple logistic regression analysis with SOAS-R as outcome variable was performed. Results The global clinical evaluations and the BVC were effective and more suitable than actuarial data in predicting short-term aggression. The use of segregation reduced the number of SOAS-R incidents. Conclusions In a naturalistic group of patients in a PICU segregation of patients lowers the number of aggressive and threatening incidents. Prediction should be based on clinical global judgment, and instruments designed to predict short-term aggression in psychiatric inpatients. Trial registrations NCT00184119/NCT00184132

  19. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  20. Expert Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

  1. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  2. Expert Cold Structure Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  3. Predicting two-year longitudinal MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory outcomes after intensity modulated radiotherapy for locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goepfert, Ryan P; Lewin, Jan S; Barrow, Martha P; Fuller, C David; Lai, Stephen Y; Song, Juhee; Hobbs, Brian P; Gunn, G Brandon; Beadle, Beth M; Rosenthal, David I; Garden, Adam S; Kies, Merrill S; Papadimitrakopoulou, Vali A; Schwartz, David L; Hutcheson, Katherine A

    2017-04-01

    To determine the factors associated with longitudinal patient-reported dysphagia as measured by the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI) in locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) survivors treated with split-field intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Retrospective patient analysis. A retrospective analysis combined data from three single-institution clinical trials for stage III/IV head and neck carcinoma. According to trial protocols, patients had prospectively collected MDADI at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months after treatment. OPC patients with baseline and at least one post-treatment MDADI were included. Longitudinal analysis was completed with multivariate linear mixed effects modeling. There were 116 patients who met inclusion criteria. Mean baseline MDADI composite was 88.3, dropping to 73.8 at 6 months, and rising to 78.6 and 83.3 by 12 and 24 months, respectively (compared to baseline, all P dysphagia early after split-field IMRT for locoregionally advanced OPC that remains apparent 6 months after treatment. MDADI scores recover slowly thereafter, but remain depressed at 24 months compared to baseline. Higher tumor stage and smoking status are important markers of patient-reported function through the course of treatment, suggesting these are important groups for heightened surveillance and more intensive interventions to optimize swallowing outcomes. 4 Laryngoscope, 127:842-848, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  4. East London Modified-Broset as Decision-Making Tool to Predict Seclusion in Psychiatric Intensive Care Units

    OpenAIRE

    Loi, Felice; Marlowe, Karl

    2017-01-01

    Seclusion is a last resort intervention for management of aggressive behavior in psychiatric settings. There is no current objective and practical decision-making instrument for seclusion use on psychiatric wards. Our aim was to test the predictive and discriminatory characteristics of the East London Modified-Broset (ELMB), to delineate its decision-making profile for seclusion of adult psychiatric patients, and second to benchmark it against the psychometric properties of the Broset Violenc...

  5. Loading intensity prediction by velocity and the OMNI-RES 0–10 scale in bench press

    OpenAIRE

    Naclerio, Fernando; Larumbe-Zabala, Eneko

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the possibility of using movement velocity and the perceived exertion as indicators of relative load in the bench press exercise. Three hundred eight young, healthy, resistance trained athletes (242 male and 66 female) performed a progressive strength test up to the one-repetition maximum for the individual determination of the full load-velocity and load-exertion relationships. Longitudinal regression models were used to predict the relative load from the average velocity...

  6. Low pain intensity after opioid withdrawal as a first step of a comprehensive pain rehabilitation program predicts long-term nonuse of opioids in chronic noncancer pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumova, Elena K; Bennemann, Philipp; Kindler, Doris; Schwarzer, Andreas; Zenz, Michael; Maier, Christoph

    2013-09-01

    In specialized pain clinics there is an increasing number of patients with severe chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) despite long-term opioid medication. Few clinical studies show short-term pain relief after opioid withdrawal (OW). We have evaluated the relation between pain intensity after OW and long-term opioid nonuse. One hundred two consecutive patients with severe CNCP despite opioid medication (mean treatment duration, 43 mo) reported pain intensity (numerical rating scale, 0 to 10), Pain Disability Index, mood (CES-D), and quality of life (Short Form 36) before, shortly, and 12 to 24 months after inpatient OW. Total opioid withdrawal (n = 78) or significant dose reduction (DR; n = 24, mean reduction, 82%) was performed after individual decision. Opioid intake 12 to 24 months later, respectively dose increase ≥ 100% (DR group), was considered relapse. T tests, multivariable analysis of variance, logistic regression. After OW current pain intensity significantly decreased on an average by 41% (6.4 ± 2.4 vs. 3.8 ± 2.5), maximal and average pain by 18% and 24%, respectively. Twelve to 24 months later 42 patients (41%) relapsed (31 of the total opioid withdrawal group, 6 of the DR group, 5 lost). Patients without later relapse showed significantly lower pain scores than the later relapsed patients already shortly after OW (5.0 ± 2.2 vs. 5.9 ± 2.1) and 12 to 24 months later (5.5 ± 2.4 vs. 6.5 ± 2.0). There was a significant relation between relapse probability and pain intensity immediately after OW. In many patients with severe CNCP, despite opioid medication, sustainable pain relief can be achieved if OW is included in the rehabilitation program. Consequently, we recommend OW for opioid-resistant CNCP before any opioid escalation. Lower pain intensity shortly after OW may predict the long-term opioid nonuse probability.

  7. Predictive Performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score in Acutely Ill Intensive Care Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granholm, Anders; Møller, Morten Hylander; Kragh, Mette

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Severity scores including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score are used in intensive care units (ICUs) to assess disease severity, predict mortality and in research. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of SAPS II...... compared the discrimination of SAPS II and initial SOFA scores, compared the discrimination of SAPS II in our cohort with the original cohort, assessed the calibration of SAPS II customised to our cohort, and compared the discrimination for 90-day mortality vs. in-hospital mortality for both scores....... Discrimination was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC). Calibration was evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit Ĉ-statistic. RESULTS: AUROC for in-hospital mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.83) for SAPS II and 0.73 (95% CI 0...

  8. Can dosimetric parameters predict acute hematologic toxicity in rectal cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated pelvic radiotherapy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Juefeng; Liu, Kaitai; Li, Kaixuan; Li, Guichao; Zhang, Zhen

    2015-01-01

    To identify dosimetric parameters associated with acute hematologic toxicity (HT) in rectal cancer patients undergoing concurrent chemotherapy and intensity-modulated pelvic radiotherapy. Ninety-three rectal cancer patients receiving concurrent capecitabine and pelvic intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) were analyzed. Pelvic bone marrow (PBM) was contoured for each patient and divided into three subsites: lumbosacral spine (LSS), ilium, and lower pelvis (LP). The volume of each site receiving 5–40 Gy (V 5, V10, V15, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) as well as patient baseline clinical characteristics was calculated. The endpoint for hematologic toxicity was grade ≥ 2 (HT2+) leukopenia, neutropenia, anemia or thrombocytopenia. Logistic regression was used to analyze correlation between dosimetric parameters and grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity. Twenty-four in ninety-three patients experienced grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity. Only the dosimetric parameter V40 of lumbosacral spine was correlated with grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity. Increased pelvic lumbosacral spine V40 (LSS-V40) was associated with an increased grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity (p = 0.041). Patients with LSS-V40 ≥ 60 % had higher rates of grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity than did patients with lumbosacral spine V40 < 60 % (38.3 %, 18/47 vs.13 %, 6/46, p =0.005). On univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, lumbosacral spine V40 and gender was also the variable associated with grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity. Female patients were observed more likely to have grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity than male ones (46.9 %, 15/32 vs 14.8 %, 9/61, p =0.001). Lumbosacral spine -V40 was associated with clinically significant grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity. Keeping the lumbosacral spine -V40 < 60 % was associated with a 13 % risk of grade ≥ 2 hematologic toxicity in rectal cancer patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy

  9. T2-weighted signal intensity-selected volumetry for prediction of pathological complete response after preoperative chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungwon; Han, Kyunghwa; Seo, Nieun; Kim, Hye Jin; Kim, Myeong-Jin; Koom, Woong Sub; Ahn, Joong Bae; Lim, Joon Seok

    2018-06-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic value of signal intensity (SI)-selected volumetry findings in T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a potential biomarker for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer. Forty consecutive patients with pCR after preoperative CRT were compared with 80 age- and sex-matched non-pCR patients in a case-control study. SI-selected tumor volume was measured on post-CRT T2-weighted MRI, which included voxels of the treated tumor exceeding the SI (obturator internus muscle SI + [ischiorectal fossa fat SI - obturator internus muscle SI] × 0.2). Three blinded readers independently rated five-point pCR confidence scores and compared the diagnostic outcome with SI-selected volumetry findings. The SI-selected volumetry protocol was validated in 30 additional rectal cancer patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of SI-selected volumetry for pCR prediction was 0.831, with an optimal cutoff value of 649.6 mm 3 (sensitivity 0.850, specificity 0.725). The AUC of the SI-selected tumor volume was significantly greater than the pooled AUC of readers (0.707, p volumetry in post-CRT T2-weighted MRI can help predict pCR after preoperative CRT in patients with rectal cancer. • Fibrosis and viable tumor MRI signal intensities (SIs) are difficult to distinguish. • T2 SI-selected volumetry yields high diagnostic performance for assessing pathological complete response. • T2 SI-selected volumetry is significantly more accurate than readers and non-SI-selected volumetry. • Post-chemoradiation therapy T2-weighted MRI SI-selected volumetry facilitates prediction of pathological complete response.

  10. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Scalco, Elisa; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Broggi, Sara; Dinapoli, Nicola; Ricchetti, Francesco; Valentini, Vincenzo; Rizzo, Giovanna; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro

    2014-10-01

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher "mean" acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm(3)/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia.

  11. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  12. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  13. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  14. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara; Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro; Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo; Ricchetti, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / 3 /day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [de

  15. Change in self-esteem predicts depressive symptoms at follow-up after intensive multimodal psychotherapy for major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinger, Ulrike; Ehrenthal, Johannes C; Nikendei, Christoph; Schauenburg, Henning

    2017-09-01

    Reduced self-esteem is a core symptom of depression, but few studies have investigated within-treatment change of self-esteem as a predictor of long-term outcome in depression. This study investigated change in self-esteem during 8 weeks of multimodal, psychodynamically oriented psychotherapy for 40 depressed patients and tested whether it would predict outcome 6 months after termination. Data was drawn from a randomized clinical pilot trial on day-clinic versus inpatient psychotherapy for depression. Findings supported the association between change in self-esteem and follow-up depression severity, even when controlling for within-treatment symptom change. Change in self-esteem was not related to overall symptoms and interpersonal problems at follow-up. Thus, change in self-esteem may be an important variable in preventing relapse for depression. Self-esteem is related to depressive symptoms and interpersonal problems. Improvement of self-esteem during psychotherapy correlates with improvements of symptoms and interpersonal problems. Change of self-esteem during psychotherapy predicts depressive symptoms 6 months after termination of therapy. When treating depressed patients, psychotherapists should work towards an improvement of self-esteem in order to prevent relapse. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Higher Precision of Heart Rate Compared with VO2 to Predict Exercise Intensity in Endurance-Trained Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Victor M; den Tillaar, Roland Van; Marques, Mario C

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of oxygen uptake with heart rate regression during track running in highly-trained runners. Twelve national and international level male long-distance road runners (age 30.7 ± 5.5 yrs, height 1.71 ± 0.04 m and mass 61.2 ± 5.8 kg) with a personal best on the half marathon of 62 min 37 s ± 1 min 22 s participated in the study. Each participant performed, in an all-weather synthetic track five, six min bouts at constant velocity with each bout at an increased running velocity. The starting velocity was 3.33 m·s(-1) with a 0.56 m·s(-1) increase on each subsequent bout. VO2 and heart rate were measured during the runs and blood lactate was assessed immediately after each run. Mean peak VO2 and mean peak heart rate were, respectively, 76.2 ± 9.7 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) and 181 ± 13 beats·min(-1). The linearity of the regressions between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 were all very high (r > 0.99) with small standard errors of regression (i.e. Sy.x at the velocity associated with the 2 and 4 mmol·L(-1) lactate thresholds). The strong relationships between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 found in this study show that, in highly trained runners, it is possible to have heart rate as an accurate indicator of energy demand and of the running speed. Therefore, in this subject cohort it may be unnecessary to use VO2 to track changes in the subjects' running economy during training periods. Key pointsHeart rate is used in the control of exercise intensity in endurance sports.However, few studies have quantified the precision of its relationship with oxygen uptake in highly trained runners.We evaluated twelve elite half-marathon runners during track running at various intensities and established three regressions: oxygen uptake / heart rate; heart rate / running velocity and oxygen uptake / running velocity.The three regressions presented, respectively, imprecision of 4,2%, 2,75% and 4,5% at the velocity

  17. High-intensity sweetener consumption and gut microbiome content and predicted gene function in a cross-sectional study of adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenfeld, Cara L; Sikaroodi, Masoumeh; Lamb, Evan; Shoemaker, Sarah; Gillevet, Patrick M

    2015-10-01

    To evaluate gut microbiome in relation to recent high-intensity sweetener consumption in healthy adults. Thirty-one adults completed a four-day food record and provided a fecal sample on the fifth day. Bacterial community in the samples was analyzed using multitag pyrosequencing. Across consumers and nonconsumers of aspartame and acesulfame-K, bacterial abundance was compared using nonparametric statistics, and bacterial diversity was compared using UniFrac analysis. Phylogenetic Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved States (PICRUSt) was used to predict mean relative abundance of gene function. There were seven aspartame consumers and seven acesulfame-K consumers. Three individuals overlapped groups, consuming both sweeteners. There were no differences in median bacterial abundance (class or order) across consumers and nonconsumers of either sweetener. Overall bacterial diversity was different across nonconsumers and consumers of aspartame (P Bacterial abundance profiles and predicted gene function were not associated with recent dietary high-intensity sweetener consumption. However, bacterial diversity differed across consumers and nonconsumers. Given the increasing consumption of sweeteners and the role that the microbiome may have in chronic disease outcomes, work in further studies is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound for prediction of prostate cancer aggressiveness: The role of normal peripheral zone time-intensity curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Qiu; Zhou, Zheng-Guo; Chen, Ling-Shan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Yang; Li, Hong-Bo; Yin, Li-Ping

    2016-12-08

    To assess the role of time-intensity curves (TICs) of the normal peripheral zone (PZ) in the identification of biopsy-proven prostate nodules using contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound (CETRUS). This study included 132 patients with 134 prostate PZ nodules. Arrival time (AT), peak intensity (PI), mean transit time (MTT), area under the curve (AUC), time from peak to one half (TPH), wash in slope (WIS) and time to peak (TTP) were analyzed using multivariate linear logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess whether combining nodule TICs with normal PZ TICs improved the prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness. The PI, AUC (p < 0.001 for both), MTT and TPH (p = 0.011 and 0.040 respectively) values of the malignant nodules were significantly higher than those of the benign nodules. Incorporating the PI and AUC values (both, p < 0.001) of the normal PZ TIC, but not the MTT and TPH values (p = 0.076 and 0.159 respectively), significantly improved the AUC for prediction of malignancy (PI: 0.784-0.923; AUC: 0.758-0.891) and assessment of cancer aggressiveness (p < 0.001). Thus, all these findings indicate that incorporating normal PZ TICs with nodule TICs in CETRUS readings can improve the diagnostic accuracy for PCa and cancer aggressiveness assessment.

  19. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  20. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  1. Use of integrated analogue and numerical modelling to predict tridimensional fracture intensity in fault-related-folds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzati, Mattia; Cavozzi, Cristian; Magistroni, Corrado; Storti, Fabrizio

    2016-04-01

    Fracture density pattern predictions with low uncertainty is a fundamental issue for constraining fluid flow pathways in thrust-related anticlines in the frontal parts of thrust-and-fold belts and accretionary prisms, which can also provide plays for hydrocarbon exploration and development. Among the drivers that concur to determine the distribution of fractures in fold-and-thrust-belts, the complex kinematic pathways of folded structures play a key role. In areas with scarce and not reliable underground information, analogue modelling can provide effective support for developing and validating reliable hypotheses on structural architectures and their evolution. In this contribution, we propose a working method that combines analogue and numerical modelling. We deformed a sand-silicone multilayer to eventually produce a non-cylindrical thrust-related anticline at the wedge toe, which was our test geological structure at the reservoir scale. We cut 60 serial cross-sections through the central part of the deformed model to analyze faults and folds geometry using dedicated software (3D Move). The cross-sections were also used to reconstruct the 3D geometry of reference surfaces that compose the mechanical stratigraphy thanks to the use of the software GoCad. From the 3D model of the experimental anticline, by using 3D Move it was possible to calculate the cumulative stress and strain underwent by the deformed reference layers at the end of the deformation and also in incremental steps of fold growth. Based on these model outputs it was also possible to predict the orientation of three main fractures sets (joints and conjugate shear fractures) and their occurrence and density on model surfaces. The next step was the upscaling of the fracture network to the entire digital model volume, to create DFNs.

  2. A computerized expert system for mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, V.P.; Dines, K.A.; Bassett, L.W.

    1988-01-01

    The authors have developed a computer-based expert system to aid in the interpretation of mammograms, breast sonograms, and clinical findings. The radiologist enters clinical and image data into the artificial intelligence system and receives a prediction of the etiology of lesions seen on breast imaging studies. This prototype interactive system has undergone preliminary clinical testing and evaluation. Ultimately, a more refined and complex system will be of value in mammography education, for general radiologists without ready access to mammography experts, for paramedical personnel, and for all mammographers in need of a breast imaging database and reporting systems

  3. Predictive Factors for Delayed Extubation in the Intensive Care Unit after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting; A Southern Iranian Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrbanoo Shahbazi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Early extubation is implemented in cardiothoracic units worldwide for its advantages such as decreased mortality, morbidity, and hospitalization costs. We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate potential factors which may affect extubation time. Methods: The records of 334 eligible patients who underwent elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG in 2008 in Kowsar Hospital in Shiraz, southern Iran were evaluated to find the factors that can affect the extubation time. The patients were divided to early (equal or less than 6 hours and late extubation groups. The patients’ demographic data and operative variables were extracted from the records. We excluded patients with difficult intubation, severe acid base disturbance, neurological problems, and cardiovascular instability; and those who used intra-aortic balloon pump, had underwent emergency operation, or had another concomitant surgery. Results: Multiple logistic regressions comparing age, sex, number of grafts, ejection fraction, pump time, hematocrit, number of risk factors, and number of inotropic drugs, identified only age as a predictor of delayed extubation (odds ratio=1.07, CI 95%=1.04-1.10, P<0.001. Also, in both studied groups the men to women ratio was higher (P<0.05.Conclusion: Although in our study age was the only predictive factor for delayed extubation, a comprehensive study including preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative factors is recommended in our area.

  4. Early changes of parotid density and volume predict modifications at the end of therapy and intensity of acute xerostomia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, Maria Luisa; Broggi, Sara [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); Scalco, Elisa; Rizzo, Giovanna [CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Sanguineti, Giuseppe [Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rome (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro [Ospedale San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Medical Physics, Milano (Italy); CNR, Istituto di Bioimmagini e Fisiologia Molecolare, Milano (Italy); Dinapoli, Nicola; Valentini, Vincenzo [Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Rome (Italy); Ricchetti, Francesco [Ospedale Sacro Cuore, Radiotherapy, Negrar (Italy)

    2014-11-15

    To quantitatively assess the predictive power of early variations of parotid gland volume and density on final changes at the end of therapy and, possibly, on acute xerostomia during IMRT for head-neck cancer. Data of 92 parotids (46 patients) were available. Kinetics of the changes during treatment were described by the daily rate of density (rΔρ) and volume (rΔvol) variation based on weekly diagnostic kVCT images. Correlation between early and final changes was investigated as well as the correlation with prospective toxicity data (CTCAEv3.0) collected weekly during treatment for 24/46 patients. A higher rΔρ was observed during the first compared to last week of treatment (-0,50 vs -0,05HU, p-value = 0.0001). Based on early variations, a good estimation of the final changes may be obtained (Δρ: AUC = 0.82, p = 0.0001; Δvol: AUC = 0.77, p = 0.0001). Both early rΔρ and rΔvol predict a higher ''mean'' acute xerostomia score (≥ median value, 1.57; p-value = 0.01). Median early density rate changes for patients with mean xerostomia score ≥ / < 1.57 were -0.98 vs -0.22 HU/day respectively (p = 0.05). Early density and volume variations accurately predict final changes of parotid glands. A higher longitudinally assessed score of acute xerostomia is well predicted by higher rΔρ and rΔvol in the first two weeks of treatment: best cut-off values were -0.50 HU/day and -380 mm{sup 3}/day for rΔρ and rΔvol respectively. Further studies are necessary to definitively assess the potential of early density/volume changes in identifying more sensitive patients at higher risk of experiencing xerostomia. (orig.) [German] Ziel der Studie ist die Untersuchung der praediktiven Aussagekraft von fruehen Veraenderungen in Volumen und Dichte der Ohrspeicheldruese in Bezug auf die finale Verformung zum Ende der Therapie sowie das Risiko von Xerostomie waehrend der intesitaetsmodulierten Strahlentherapie (IMRT) bei Kopf und Hals Tumoren. Die Studie

  5. High positive predictive value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples for the diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infection in intensive care neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deleers, M; Dodémont, M; Van Overmeire, B; Hennequin, Y; Vermeylen, D; Roisin, S; Denis, O

    2016-04-01

    Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) remain a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections in preterm infants. Rapid and accurate methods for the diagnosis of CRBSIs are needed in order to implement timely and appropriate treatment. A retrospective study was conducted during a 7-year period (2005-2012) in the neonatal intensive care unit of the University Hospital Erasme to assess the value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples (CDBS) to predict CRBSIs. Both peripheral samples and CDBS were obtained from neonates with clinically suspected CRBSI. Gram stain, automated culture and quantitative cultures on blood agar plates were performed for each sample. The paired quantitative blood culture was used as the standard to define CRBSI. Out of 397 episodes of suspected CRBSIs, 35 were confirmed by a positive ratio of quantitative culture (>5) or a colony count of CDBS culture >100 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL. All but two of the 30 patients who had a CDBS with a positive Gram stain were confirmed as having a CRBSI. Seven patients who had a CDBS with a negative Gram stain were diagnosed as CRBSI. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of Gram stain on CDBS were 80, 99.4, 93.3 and 98.1 %, respectively. Gram staining on CDBS is a viable method for rapidly (<1 h) detecting CRBSI without catheter withdrawal.

  6. Predicting the severity and prognosis of trismus after intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oral cancer patients by magnetic resonance imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Chun Hsieh

    Full Text Available To develop magnetic resonance imaging (MRI indicators to predict trismus outcome for post-operative oral cavity cancer patients who received adjuvant intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT, 22 patients with oral cancer treated with IMRT were studied over a two-year period. Signal abnormality scores (SA scores were computed from Likert-type ratings of the abnormalities of nine masticator structures and compared with the Mann-Whitney U-test and Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA test between groups. Seventeen patients (77.3% experienced different degrees of trismus during the two-year follow-up period. The SA score correlated with the trismus grade (r = 0.52, p<0.005. Patients having progressive trismus had higher mean doses of radiation to multiple structures, including the masticator and lateral pterygoid muscles, and the parotid gland (p<0.05. In addition, this group also had higher SA-masticator muscle dose product at 6 months and SA scores at 12 months (p<0.05. At the optimum cut-off points of 0.38 for the propensity score, the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity was 93% for predicting the prognosis of the trismus patients. The SA score, as determined using MRI, can reflect the radiation injury and correlate to trismus severity. Together with the radiation dose, it could serve as a useful biomarker to predict the outcome and guide the management of trismus following radiation therapy.

  7. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  8. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  9. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  10. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  11. Multivariate Analysis of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Aerosol Retrievals and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS Parameters for Atlantic Hurricanes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed M. Kamal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aerosol retrievals over the North Atlantic spanning seven hurricane seasons are combined with the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS parameters. The difference between the current and future intensity changes were selected as response variables. For 24 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 and 5 between 2003 and 2009, eight lead time response variables were determined to be between 6 and 48 h. By combining MODIS and SHIPS data, 56 variables were compiled and selected as predictors for this study. Variable reduction from 56 to 31 was performed in two steps; the first step was via correlation coefficients (cc followed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA extraction techniques. The PCA reduced 31 variables to 20. Five categories were established based on the PCA group variables exhibiting similar physical phenomena. Average aerosol retrievals from MODIS Level 2 data in the vicinity of UTC 1,200 and 1,800 h were mapped to the SHIPS parameters to perform Multiple Linear Regression (MLR between each response variable against six sets of predictors of 31, 30, 28, 27, 23 and 20 variables. The deviation among the predictors Root Mean Square Error (RMSE varied between 0.01 through 0.05 and, therefore, implied that reducing the number of variables did not change the core physical information. Even when the parameters are reduced from 56 to 20, the correlation values exhibit a stronger relationship between the response and predictors. Therefore, the same phenomena can be explained by the reduction of variables.

  12. Factors among patients receiving prone positioning for the acute respiratory distress syndrome found useful for predicting mortality in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modrykamien, Ariel M; Daoud, Yahya

    2018-01-01

    Optimal mechanical ventilation management in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) involves the use of low tidal volumes and limited plateau pressure. Refractory hypoxemia may not respond to this strategy, requiring other interventions. The use of prone positioning in severe ARDS resulted in improvement in 28-day survival. To determine whether mechanical ventilation strategies or other parameters affected survival in patients undergoing prone positioning, a retrospective analysis was conducted of a consecutive series of patients with severe ARDS treated with prone positioning. Demographic and clinical information involving mechanical ventilation strategies, as well as other variables associated with prone positioning, was collected. The rate of in-hospital mortality was obtained, and previously described parameters were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Forty-three patients with severe ARDS were treated with prone positioning, and 27 (63%) died in the intensive care unit. Only three parameters were significant predictors of survival: APACHE II score ( P = 0.03), plateau pressure ( P = 0.02), and driving pressure ( P = 0.04). The ability of each of these parameters to predict mortality was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves. The area under the curve values for APACHE II, plateau pressure, and driving pressure were 0.74, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. In conclusion, in a group of patients with severe ARDS treated with prone positioning, only APACHE II, plateau pressure, and driving pressure were associated with mortality in the intensive care unit.

  13. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, L.J.; Burggraf, L.K.; Reece, W.J.

    1998-01-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling

  14. Clinical-Radiological Parameters Improve the Prediction of the Thrombolysis Time Window by Both MRI Signal Intensities and DWI-FLAIR Mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madai, Vince Istvan; Wood, Carla N; Galinovic, Ivana; Grittner, Ulrike; Piper, Sophie K; Revankar, Gajanan S; Martin, Steve Z; Zaro-Weber, Olivier; Moeller-Hartmann, Walter; von Samson-Himmelstjerna, Federico C; Heiss, Wolf-Dieter; Ebinger, Martin; Fiebach, Jochen B; Sobesky, Jan

    2016-01-01

    With regard to acute stroke, patients with unknown time from stroke onset are not eligible for thrombolysis. Quantitative diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MRI relative signal intensity (rSI) biomarkers have been introduced to predict eligibility for thrombolysis, but have shown heterogeneous results in the past. In the present work, we investigated whether the inclusion of easily obtainable clinical-radiological parameters would improve the prediction of the thrombolysis time window by rSIs and compared their performance to the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch. In a retrospective study, patients from 2 centers with proven stroke with onset value/mean value of the unaffected hemisphere). Additionally, the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch was evaluated. Prediction of the thrombolysis time window was evaluated by the area-under-the-curve (AUC) derived from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Factors such as the association of age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, MRI field strength, lesion size, vessel occlusion and Wahlund-Score with rSI were investigated and the models were adjusted and stratified accordingly. In 82 patients, the unadjusted rSI measures DWI-mean and -SD showed the highest AUCs (AUC 0.86-0.87). Adjustment for clinical-radiological covariates significantly improved the performance of FLAIR-mean (0.91) and DWI-SD (0.91). The best prediction results based on the AUC were found for the final stratified and adjusted models of DWI-SD (0.94) and FLAIR-mean (0.96) and a multivariable DWI-FLAIR model (0.95). The adjusted visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch did not perform in a significantly worse manner (0.89). ADC-rSIs showed fair performance in all models. Quantitative DWI and FLAIR MRI biomarkers as well as the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch provide excellent prediction of eligibility for thrombolysis in acute stroke, when easily obtainable clinical-radiological parameters are included in the prediction

  15. TU-G-BRA-05: Predicting Volume Change of the Tumor and Critical Structures Throughout Radiation Therapy by CT-CBCT Registration with Local Intensity Correction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S; Robinson, A; Kiess, A; Quon, H; Wong, J; Lee, J [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (United States); Plishker, W [IGI Technologies Inc., College Park, MD (United States); Shekhar, R [IGI Technologies Inc., College Park, MD (United States); Children’s National Medical Center, Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop an accurate and effective technique to predict and monitor volume changes of the tumor and organs at risk (OARs) from daily cone-beam CTs (CBCTs). Methods: While CBCT is typically used to minimize the patient setup error, its poor image quality impedes accurate monitoring of daily anatomical changes in radiotherapy. Reconstruction artifacts in CBCT often cause undesirable errors in registration-based contour propagation from the planning CT, a conventional way to estimate anatomical changes. To improve the registration and segmentation accuracy, we developed a new deformable image registration (DIR) that iteratively corrects CBCT intensities using slice-based histogram matching during the registration process. Three popular DIR algorithms (hierarchical B-spline, demons, optical flow) augmented by the intensity correction were implemented on a graphics processing unit for efficient computation, and their performances were evaluated on six head and neck (HN) cancer cases. Four trained scientists manually contoured nodal gross tumor volume (GTV) on the planning CT and every other fraction CBCTs for each case, to which the propagated GTV contours by DIR were compared. The performance was also compared with commercial software, VelocityAI (Varian Medical Systems Inc.). Results: Manual contouring showed significant variations, [-76, +141]% from the mean of all four sets of contours. The volume differences (mean±std in cc) between the average manual segmentation and four automatic segmentations are 3.70±2.30(B-spline), 1.25±1.78(demons), 0.93±1.14(optical flow), and 4.39±3.86 (VelocityAI). In comparison to the average volume of the manual segmentations, the proposed approach significantly reduced the estimation error by 9%(B-spline), 38%(demons), and 51%(optical flow) over the conventional mutual information based method (VelocityAI). Conclusion: The proposed CT-CBCT registration with local CBCT intensity correction

  16. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  17. The recourse to experts. Political reasons and uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumoulin, L.; La Branche, St.; Robert, C.; Warin, Ph.

    2005-01-01

    The need of reliable knowledge is necessary to draw adequate public policies. The role of experts is more and more important in any field, the expert brings his own specialized knowledge to the political world, he can define looming threads, can predict catastrophes, can highlight the long-term responsibility of particular choices but he can also contribute to the drawing of adequate solutions. The limit of expert's power lays in his ability to make a synthesis of plural knowledge. This book presents the role and weight of experts in our society from justice to economics via natural risks. A lot of examples of public policies based on expert valuation is given, in particular the recourse to experts of the European Union when it was to deal with the upgrading of nuclear safety standard in eastern countries. (A.C.)

  18. Repulsive guidance cue semaphorin 3A in urine predicts the progression of acute kidney injury in adult patients from a mixed intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, Kent; Noiri, Eisei; Nangaku, Masaomi; Yahagi, Naoki; Jayakumar, Calpurnia; Ramesh, Ganesan

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the development of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the critical care setting is challenging. Although several biomarkers showed somewhat satisfactory performance for detecting established AKI even in a heterogeneous disease-oriented population, identification of new biomarkers that predict the development of AKI accurately is urgently required. A single-center prospective observational cohort study was undertaken to evaluate for the first time the reliability of the newly identified biomarker semaphorin 3A for AKI diagnosis in heterogeneous intensive care unit populations. In addition to five urinary biomarkers of L-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), IL-18, albumin and N-acetyl-β-d-glucosaminidase (NAG), urinary semaphorin 3A was measured at intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Three hundred thirty-nine critically ill adult patients were recruited for this study. Among them, 131 patients (39%) were diagnosed with AKI by the RIFLE criteria and 66 patients were diagnosed as AKI at post-ICU admission (later-onset AKI). Eighty-four AKI patients showed worsening severity during 1 week observation (AKI progression). Although L-FABP, NGAL and IL-18 showed significantly higher area under the curve (AUC)-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values than semaphorin 3A in detecting established AKI, semaphorin 3A was able to detect later-onset AKI and AKI progression with similar AUC-ROC values compared with the other five biomarkers [AUC-ROC (95% CI) for established AKI 0.64 (0.56-0.71), later-onset AKI 0.71 (0.64-0.78), AKI progression 0.71 (0.64-0.77)]. Urinary semaphorin 3A was not increased in non-progressive established AKI, while the other biomarkers were elevated regardless of further progression. Finally, sepsis did not have any impact on semaphorin 3A while the other urinary biomarkers were increased with sepsis. Semaphorin 3A is a new biomarker of AKI which may have a distinct predictive use for

  19. Prediction of near-term increases in suicidal ideation in recently depressed patients with bipolar II disorder using intensive longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depp, Colin A; Thompson, Wesley K; Frank, Ellen; Swartz, Holly A

    2017-01-15

    There are substantial gaps in understanding near-term precursors of suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. We evaluated whether repeated patient-reported mood and energy ratings predicted subsequent near-term increases in suicide ideation. Secondary data were used from 86 depressed adults with bipolar II disorder enrolled in one of 3 clinical trials evaluating Interpersonal and Social Rhythm Therapy and/or pharmacotherapy as treatments for depression. Twenty weeks of daily mood and energy ratings and weekly Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) were obtained. Penalized regression was used to model trajectories of daily mood and energy ratings in the 3 week window prior to HDRS Suicide Item ratings. Participants completed an average of 68.6 (sd=52) days of mood and energy ratings. Aggregated across the sample, 22% of the 1675 HDRS Suicide Item ratings were non-zero, indicating presence of at least some suicidal thoughts. A cross-validated model with longitudinal ratings of energy and depressed mood within the three weeks prior to HDRS ratings resulted in an AUC of 0.91 for HDRS Suicide item >2, accounting for twice the variation when compared to baseline HDRS ratings. Energy, both at low and high levels, was an earlier predictor than mood. Data derived from a heterogeneous treated sample may not generalize to naturalistic samples. Identified suicidal behavior was absent from the sample so it could not be predicted. Prediction models coupled with intensively gathered longitudinal data may shed light on the dynamic course of near-term risk factors for suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A physical function test for use in the intensive care unit: validity, responsiveness, and predictive utility of the physical function ICU test (scored).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denehy, Linda; de Morton, Natalie A; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Edbrooke, Lara; Haines, Kimberley; Warrillow, Stephen; Berney, Sue

    2013-12-01

    Several tests have recently been developed to measure changes in patient strength and functional outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU). The original Physical Function ICU Test (PFIT) demonstrates reliability and sensitivity. The aims of this study were to further develop the original PFIT, to derive an interval score (the PFIT-s), and to test the clinimetric properties of the PFIT-s. A nested cohort study was conducted. One hundred forty-four and 116 participants performed the PFIT at ICU admission and discharge, respectively. Original test components were modified using principal component analysis. Rasch analysis examined the unidimensionality of the PFIT, and an interval score was derived. Correlations tested validity, and multiple regression analyses investigated predictive ability. Responsiveness was assessed using the effect size index (ESI), and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was calculated. The shoulder lift component was removed. Unidimensionality of combined admission and discharge PFIT-s scores was confirmed. The PFIT-s displayed moderate convergent validity with the Timed "Up & Go" Test (r=-.60), the Six-Minute Walk Test (r=.41), and the Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score (rho=.49). The ESI of the PFIT-s was 0.82, and the MCID was 1.5 points (interval scale range=0-10). A higher admission PFIT-s score was predictive of: an MRC score of ≥48, increased likelihood of discharge home, reduced likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation, and reduced acute care hospital length of stay. Scoring of sit-to-stand assistance required is subjective, and cadence cutpoints used may not be generalizable. The PFIT-s is a safe and inexpensive test of physical function with high clinical utility. It is valid, responsive to change, and predictive of key outcomes. It is recommended that the PFIT-s be adopted to test physical function in the ICU.

  1. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  2. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  3. The First Expert CAI System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  4. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Pretreatment combination of platelet counts and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio predicts survival of nasopharyngeal cancer patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin YH

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Hsuan Lin,1 Kuo-Ping Chang,2 Yaoh-Shiang Lin,2,3 Ting-Shou Chang2–4 1Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 2Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, 3Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, 4Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, Republic of China Background: Increased cancer-related inflammation has been associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes. The combination of platelet count and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR has related outcomes in several cancers, except for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC. This study evaluated the prognostic value of COP-NLR in predicting outcome in NPC patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT.Materials and methods: We analyzed the data collected from 232 NPC patients. Pretreatment total platelet counts, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, and COP-NLR score were evaluated as potential predictors. Optimal cutoff values for NLR and platelets were determined using receiver operating curve. Patients with both elevated NLR (>3 and platelet counts (>300×109/L were assigned a COP-NLR score of 2; those with one elevated or no elevated value were assigned a COP-NLR a score of 1 or 0. Cox proportional hazards model was used to test the association of these factors and relevant 3-year survivals.Results: Patients (COP-NLR scores 1 and 2=85; score 0=147 were followed up for 55.19 months. Univariate analysis showed no association between pretreatment NLR >2.23 and platelet counts >290.5×109/L and worse outcomes. Multivariate analysis revealed that those with COP-NLR scores of 0 had better 3-year disease-specific survival (P=0.02, overall survival (P=0.024, locoregional relapse-free survival (P=0.004, and distant

  6. Expert Approaches to Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-03-01

    analysis that takes place in anatomy or circuit diagrams. The goal is to break an entity down into a set of non- overlapping parts, and to specify the...components. For example, one subject in predicting the fate of different species, broke them into three types: animals that humans would save (e.g., gorillas

  7. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  8. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  9. Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

    2018-04-01

    We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

  10. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  11. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  12. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  13. Football experts versus sports economists: Whose forecasts are better?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frick, Bernd; Wicker, Pamela

    2016-08-01

    Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay-performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions.

  14. Predictive value of the time-intensity curves on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for lymphatic spreading in breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komatsu, Shuhei; Lee, Chol Joo; Ichikawa, Daisuke

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI) has emerged as a promising diagnostic modality in various breast cancer treatments. However, little is known about the correlation between the pattern of time to signal intensity curves (TIC) on the CE-MRI and clinicopathologic features. This study was designed to investigate these correlations and evaluate the predictive value of TIC on CE-MRI in order to identify high-risk patients. Between 2001 and 2003, 101 lesions were evaluated to detect malignancy on CE-MRI in 101 women who were suspected of having breast tumors based on either clinical findings or conventional imaging studies. Moreover, the clinicopathologic findings were compared with the pattern of TIC for the 69 surgically treated malignant lesions. In detecting malignancy, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.7%, 88.5%, and 81.2%, respectively, in the 101 breast lesions. Especially for the 69 surgically treated malignant lesions, in comparison with breast cancer tumors with the benign pattern of TIC, the breast cancer tumors with a malignant pattern were found more frequently in lymphatic invasion (P<0.01) and lymph node metastasis (P<0.005), although no statistical correlation regarding the histological type, tumor size, vascular invasion, extensive intraductal component, hormone receptor status, or pathological stage was noted between the two groups. According to a logistic regression model, lymph node metastasis was found to be a significant independent variable. The pattern of TIC could be used to predict lymphatic spreading associated with lymph node metastasis prior to surgery as well as to detect malignancy. Therefore, a more detailed evaluation should be made to identify the presence of lymphatic spreading in patients with a malignant pattern of TIC. (author)

  15. Weekly Dose-Volume Parameters of Mucosa and Constrictor Muscles Predict the Use of Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy During Exclusive Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Oropharyngeal Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Gunn, G. Brandon; Parker, Brent C.; Endres, Eugene J.; Zeng Jing; Fiorino, Claudio

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To define predictors of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) use during intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for oropharyngeal cancer. Methods and Materials: Data for 59 consecutive patients treated with exclusive IMRT at a single institution were recovered. Of 59 patients, 25 were treated with hyperfractionation (78 Gy, 1.3 Gy per fraction, twice daily; 'HYPER'); and 34 of 59 were treated with a once-daily fractionation schedule (66 Gy, 2.2 Gy per fraction, or 70 Gy, 2 Gy per fraction; 'no-HYPER'). On the basis of symptoms during treatment, a PEG tube could have been placed as appropriate. A number of clinical/dosimetric factors, including the weekly dose-volume histogram of oral mucosa (OM DVHw) and weekly mean dose to constrictors and larynx, were considered. The OM DVHw of patients with and without PEG were compared to assess the most predictive dose-volume combinations. Results: Of 59 patients, 22 needed a PEG tube during treatment (for 15 of 22, ≥3 months). The best cutoff values for OM DVHw were V9.5 Gy/week 3 and V10 Gy/week 3 . At univariate analysis, fractionation, mean weekly dose to OM and superior and middle constrictors, and OM DVHw were strongly correlated with the risk of PEG use. In a stepwise multivariate logistic analysis, OM V9.5 Gy/week (≥64 vs. 3 ) was the most predictive parameter (odds ratio 30.8, 95% confidence interval 3.7-254.2, p = 0.0015), confirmed even in the no-HYPER subgroup (odds ratio 21, 95% CI 2.1 confidence interval 210.1, p = 0.01). Conclusions: The risk of PEG use is drastically reduced when OM V9.5-V10 Gy/week is 3 . These data warrant prospective validation.

  16. Can pre- and postoperative magnetic resonance imaging predict recurrence-free survival after whole-gland high-intensity focused ablation for prostate cancer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosset, Remy; Bratan, Flavie [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Crouzet, Sebastien [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Tonoli-Catez, Helene [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Mege-Lechevallier, Florence [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Pathology, Lyon (France); Gelet, Albert [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Rouviere, Olivier [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France)

    2017-04-15

    Our aim was to assess whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after prostate cancer high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation. We retrospectively selected 81 patients who underwent (i) whole-gland HIFU ablation between 2007 and 2011 as first-line therapy or salvage treatment after radiotherapy or brachytherapy, and (ii) pre- and postoperative MRI. On preoperative imaging, two senior (R1, R2) and one junior (R3) readers assessed the number of sectors invaded by the lesion with the highest Likert score (dominant lesion) using a 27-sector diagram. On postoperative imaging, readers assessed destruction of the dominant lesion using a three-level score. Multivariate analysis included the number of sectors invaded by the dominant lesion, its Likert and destruction scores, the pre-HIFU prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, and the clinical setting (primary/salvage). The most significant predictor was the number of prostate sectors invaded by the dominant lesion for R2 and R3 (p≤0.001) and the destruction score of the dominant lesion for R1 (p = 0.011). The pre-HIFU PSA level was an independent predictor for R2 (p = 0.014), but with only marginal significance for R1 (p = 0.059) and R3 (p = 0.053). The dominant lesion's size and destruction assessed by MRI provide independent prognostic information compared with usual predictors. (orig.)

  17. an expert assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.

    2016-01-01

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are ...

  18. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  19. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  20. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  1. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  2. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  3. GOTRES: an expert system for fault detection and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, D.T.; Modarres, M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes a deep-knowledge expert system shell for diagnosing faults in process operations. The expert program shell is called GOTRES (GOal TRee Expert System) and uses a goal tree-success tree deep-knowledge structure to model its knowledge-base. To demonstrate GOTRES, we have built an on-line fault diagnosis expert system for an experimental nuclear reactor facility using this shell. The expert system is capable of diagnosing fault conditions using system goal tree as well as utilizing accumulated operating knowledge to predict plant causal and temporal behaviours. The GOTRES shell has also been used for root-cause detection and analysis in a nuclear plant. (author)

  4. Lower inhibitory control interacts with greater pain catastrophizing to predict greater pain intensity in women with migraine and overweight/obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galioto, Rachel; O'Leary, Kevin C; Thomas, J Graham; Demos, Kathryn; Lipton, Richard B; Gunstad, John; Pavlović, Jelena M; Roth, Julie; Rathier, Lucille; Bond, Dale S

    2017-12-01

    Pain catastrophizing (PC) is associated with more severe and disabling migraine attacks. However, factors that moderate this relationship are unknown. Failure of inhibitory control (IC), or the ability to suppress automatic or inappropriate responses, may be one such factor given previous research showing a relationship between higher PC and lower IC in non-migraine samples, and research showing reduced IC in migraine. Therefore, we examined whether lower IC interacts with increased PC to predict greater migraine severity as measured by pain intensity, attack frequency, and duration. Women (n = 105) aged 18-50 years old (M = 38.0 ± 1.2) with overweight/obesity and migraine who were seeking behavioral treatment for weight loss and migraine reduction completed a 28-day smartphone-based headache diary assessing migraine headache severity. Participants then completed a modified computerized Stroop task as a measure of IC and self-report measures of PC (Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS]), anxiety, and depression. Linear regression was used to examine independent and joint associations of PC and IC with indices of migraine severity after controlling for age, body mass index (BMI) depression, and anxiety. Participants on average had BMI of 35.1 ± 6.5 kg/m 2 and reported 5.3 ± 2.6 migraine attacks (8.3 ± 4.4 migraine days) over 28 days that produced moderate pain intensity (5.9 ± 1.4 out of 10) with duration of 20.0 ± 14.2 h. After adjusting for covariates, higher PCS total (β = .241, SE = .14, p = .03) and magnification subscale (β = .311, SE = .51, p migraine attacks. Future studies are needed to determine whether interventions to improve IC could lead to less painful migraine attacks via improvements in PC.

  5. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  6. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  7. Thyroid V50 Highly Predictive of Hypothyroidism in Head-and-Neck Cancer Patients Treated With Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdev, Sean; Refaat, Tamer; Bacchus, Ian D; Sathiaseelan, Vythialinga; Mittal, Bharat B

    2017-08-01

    Radiation-induced hypothyroidism affects a significant number of patients with head-and-neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC). We examined detailed dosimetric and clinical parameters to better determine the risk of hypothyroidism in euthyroid HNSCC patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). From 2006 to 2010, 75 clinically euthyroid patients with HNSCC were treated with sequential IMRT. The cohort included 59 men and 16 females with a median age of 55 years (range, 30 to 89 y) who were treated to a median dose of 70 Gy (range, 60 to 75 Gy) with concurrent chemotherapy in nearly all (95%) cases. Detailed thyroid dosimetric parameters including maximum dose, mean dose, and other parameters (eg, V50-percent volume receiving at least 50 Gy) were obtained. Freedom from hypothyroidism was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using Cox regression. After a median follow-up period of 50 months, 25 patients (33%) became hypothyroid. On univariate analysis, thyroid V50 was highly correlated with developing hypothyroidism (P=0.035). Other dosimetric paramaters including mean thyroid dose (P=0.11) and maximum thyroid dose (P=0.39) did not reach statistical significance. On multivariate analysis incorporating patient, tumor, and treatment variables, V50 remained highly statistically significant (P=0.037). Regardless of other factors, for V50>60%, the odds ratio of developing hypothyroidism was 6.76 (P=0.002). In HNSCC patients treated with IMRT, thyroid V50 highly predicts the risk of developing hypothyroidism. V50>60% puts patients at a significantly higher risk of becoming hypothyroid. This can be a useful dose constraint to consider during treatment planning.

  8. Evaluation of the Apache II and the oncologic history, as indicative predictions of mortality in the unit of intensive care of the INC September 1996 -December 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camargo, David O; Gomez, Clara; Martinez, Teresa

    1999-01-01

    They are multiple the indexes of severity that have been carried out to value the predict and the quality of a patient's life, especially when this it enters to the unit of intensive care (UIC); however, the oncologic patient presents particularities in their mobility, that it supposes a different behavior in the results of the Indexes. Presently work is compared the Apache scale and the oncologic history like morbid mortality as predictors in the UCI. 207 patients were included that entered the UCI between September of 1996 and December of 1997. It was a mortality of 29%, the stay of most of this group of patient smaller than 24 hours or bigger than 8 days. To the entrance, 50% of the patients presented superior averages at 15 in the Apache Scale and at the 48 hours, alone 30.4% continued with this value. The patients with hematologic neoplasia presented superior average at 15 in 87%, with a mortality of 63.3% with average between 15 and 24 to the entrance, the risk of dying was 9.8 times but that with inferior average. In the hematologic patient, the risk of dying was 5.7 times but regarding the solid tumors. The system but altered it was the breathing one, with an increase in the risk of dying from 2,8 times for each increment utility in the scale. Contrary to described in the literature, the oncologic diagnoses and the neoplasia statistic they didn't influence in the mortality of the patients

  9. Diffuse excessive high signal intensity in low-risk preterm infants at term-equivalent age does not predict outcome at 1 year: a prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, Yael [Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Child Development Centre, Dana-Dwek Children' s Hospital, Tel Aviv (Israel); Tel Aviv University, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv (Israel); Weinstein, Maya [Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Functional Brain Centre, The Wohl Institute for Advanced Imaging, Tel Aviv (Israel); Bar Ilan University, Department of Psychology, Gonda Multidisciplinary Brain Research Centre, Ramat-Gan (Israel); Myers, Vicki [Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Functional Brain Centre, The Wohl Institute for Advanced Imaging, Tel Aviv (Israel); Uliel, Shimrit; Geva, Karen [Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Child Development Centre, Dana-Dwek Children' s Hospital, Tel Aviv (Israel); Berger, Irit; Marom, Ronella [Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Department of Neonatology, Lis Maternity Hospital, Tel Aviv (Israel); Tel Aviv University, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv (Israel); Bashat, Dafna Ben [Tel Aviv University, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv (Israel); Tel Aviv University, Sagol School of Neuroscience, Tel Aviv (Israel); Ben-Sira, Liat [Tel Aviv University, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv (Israel); Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Tel Aviv (Israel); Geva, Ronny [Bar Ilan University, Department of Psychology, Gonda Multidisciplinary Brain Research Centre, Ramat-Gan (Israel); Gross-Tsur, Varda [Shaare-Zedek Medical Centre, Neuropediatric Unit, Jerusalem (Israel)

    2014-08-15

    The outcome of premature infants with only diffuse excessive high signal intensity (DEHSI) is not clear. We explored the relationship between DEHSI, white matter (WM) diffusion characteristics, perinatal characteristics, and neurobehavioral outcome at 1 year in a homogenous group of preterm infants without major brain abnormalities. Fifty-eight preterm infants, gestational age 29 ± 2.6 weeks, underwent an MRI at term-equivalent age (TEA). Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales, neurological assessment, and Parental Stress Index (PSI) were performed at 1 year corrected age. These measures were compared between preterm infants according to DEHSI classification (none, mild, moderate). Diffusion tensor imaging was used in major WM volumes of interest to objectively measure the degree of WM maturation. No significant differences were detected in the perinatal risk characteristics, neurobehavioral outcome, and PSI at 1 year between infants with different DEHSI classifications. In infants with DEHSI, increased axial and radial diffusivities were detected in the optic radiations, centrum semiovale, and posterior limb of the internal capsule, indicating less advanced maturation of the WM. Significant correlations were detected between the time interval from birth to MRI and the WM microstructure in infants without DEHSI. DEHSI in premature infants is neither a predictive measure for short-term adverse neurobehavioral outcome nor related to perinatal risk characteristics. Extrauterine exposure time had a differential effect on WM maturational trajectories in infants with DEHSI compared to those without. We suggest DEHSI may represent an alteration in WM maturational characteristics. Further follow-up studies may verify later consequences of DEHSI in premature infants. (orig.)

  10. Diffuse excessive high signal intensity in low-risk preterm infants at term-equivalent age does not predict outcome at 1 year: a prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitner, Yael; Weinstein, Maya; Myers, Vicki; Uliel, Shimrit; Geva, Karen; Berger, Irit; Marom, Ronella; Bashat, Dafna Ben; Ben-Sira, Liat; Geva, Ronny; Gross-Tsur, Varda

    2014-01-01

    The outcome of premature infants with only diffuse excessive high signal intensity (DEHSI) is not clear. We explored the relationship between DEHSI, white matter (WM) diffusion characteristics, perinatal characteristics, and neurobehavioral outcome at 1 year in a homogenous group of preterm infants without major brain abnormalities. Fifty-eight preterm infants, gestational age 29 ± 2.6 weeks, underwent an MRI at term-equivalent age (TEA). Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales, neurological assessment, and Parental Stress Index (PSI) were performed at 1 year corrected age. These measures were compared between preterm infants according to DEHSI classification (none, mild, moderate). Diffusion tensor imaging was used in major WM volumes of interest to objectively measure the degree of WM maturation. No significant differences were detected in the perinatal risk characteristics, neurobehavioral outcome, and PSI at 1 year between infants with different DEHSI classifications. In infants with DEHSI, increased axial and radial diffusivities were detected in the optic radiations, centrum semiovale, and posterior limb of the internal capsule, indicating less advanced maturation of the WM. Significant correlations were detected between the time interval from birth to MRI and the WM microstructure in infants without DEHSI. DEHSI in premature infants is neither a predictive measure for short-term adverse neurobehavioral outcome nor related to perinatal risk characteristics. Extrauterine exposure time had a differential effect on WM maturational trajectories in infants with DEHSI compared to those without. We suggest DEHSI may represent an alteration in WM maturational characteristics. Further follow-up studies may verify later consequences of DEHSI in premature infants. (orig.)

  11. An expert system for spare parts inventory control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, K.Y.; Chen, P.Y.C.; Okrent, D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes an expert system which can handle spare part requirements not only in corrective maintenance (CM) or preventive maintenance (PM), but also when failure rates of components or parts are updated by new data or by predictive maintenance (PDM), and which can also decide optimum stocking level of each spare part. This expert system provides a maintenance (or inventory) manager with an improved basis for decision making in the maintenance related to spare parts. The definitions of PM and PDM from NUREG-1212 (USNRC 1986) are used herein. This expert system used Intellignece/Compiler (Intelligence Ware, 1986) as a language/tool in the IBM-PC

  12. Information encryption in the expert management of strategic uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Frey, Seth; Williams, Paul L.; Albino, Dominic K.

    2016-01-01

    Strategic agents in incomplete-information environments have a conflicted relationship with uncertainty: it can keep them unpredictable to their opponents, but it must also be overcome to predict the actions of those opponents. We use a multivariate generalization of information theory to characterize the information processing behavior of strategic reasoning experts. We compare expert and novice poker players --- "sharks" and "fish" --- over 1.75 million hands of online two-player No-Limit T...

  13. Does expert perceptual anticipation transfer to a dissimilar domain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Sean; McLaren, Michelle; Appleby, Brendyn; Rosalie, Simon M

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this experiment was to extend theoretical understanding of transfer of learning by investigating whether expert perceptual anticipation skill transfers to a dissimilar domain. The capability of expert and near-expert rugby players as well as novices to anticipate skill type within rugby (learning sport) was first examined using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Participants watched video footage of an opponent performing rugby skill types that were temporally occluded at different points in the opponent's action and then made a written prediction. Thereafter, the capability of participants to transfer their anticipation skill to predict pitch type in baseball (transfer sport) was examined. Participants watched video footage of a pitcher throwing different pitch types that were temporally occluded and made a written prediction. Results indicated that expert and near-expert rugby players anticipated significantly better than novices across all occlusion conditions. However, none of the skill groups were able to transfer anticipation skill to predict pitch type in baseball. The findings of this paper, along with existing literature, support the theoretical prediction that transfer of perceptual anticipation is expertise dependent and restricted to similar domains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  15. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  16. Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

  17. Expert system in PNC, 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubota, Koji

    1990-01-01

    The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

  18. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  19. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  20. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  1. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  2. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  3. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  4. Tools and technologies for expert systems: A human factors perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaram, Navaratna S.

    1987-01-01

    It is widely recognized that technologies based on artificial intelligence (AI), especially expert systems, can make significant contributions to the productivity and effectiveness of operations of information and knowledge intensive organizations such as NASA. At the same time, these being relatively new technologies, there is the problem of transfering technology to key personnel of such organizations. The problems of examining the potential of expert systems and of technology transfer is addressed in the context of human factors applications. One of the topics of interest was the investigation of the potential use of expert system building tools, particularly NEXPERT as a technology transfer medium. Two basic conclusions were reached in this regard. First, NEXPERT is an excellent tool for rapid prototyping of experimental expert systems, but not ideal as a delivery vehicle. Therefore, it is not a substitute for general purpose system implementation languages such a LISP or C. This assertion probably holds for nearly all such tools on the market today. Second, an effective technology transfer mechanism is to formulate and implement expert systems for problems which members of the organization in question can relate to. For this purpose, the LIghting EnGineering Expert (LIEGE) was implemented using NEXPERT as the tool for technology transfer and to illustrate the value of expert systems to the activities of the Man-System Division.

  5. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  6. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  7. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  8. Network approaches for expert decisions in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner, Andreas; Heinen, Thomas; Johnson, Joseph G; Raab, Markus

    2012-04-01

    This paper focuses on a model comparison to explain choices based on gaze behavior via simulation procedures. We tested two classes of models, a parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) artificial neuronal network model and an accumulator model in a handball decision-making task from a lab experiment. Both models predict action in an option-generation task in which options can be chosen from the perspective of a playmaker in handball (i.e., passing to another player or shooting at the goal). Model simulations are based on a dataset of generated options together with gaze behavior measurements from 74 expert handball players for 22 pieces of video footage. We implemented both classes of models as deterministic vs. probabilistic models including and excluding fitted parameters. Results indicated that both classes of models can fit and predict participants' initially generated options based on gaze behavior data, and that overall, the classes of models performed about equally well. Early fixations were thereby particularly predictive for choices. We conclude that the analyses of complex environments via network approaches can be successfully applied to the field of experts' decision making in sports and provide perspectives for further theoretical developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  10. Component aging evaluation with expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiesemann, J.S.; Maguire, H.T. Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The age degradation of components involves a complex relationship between a variety of variables. These relationships are typically modeled using probabilistic and deterministic analyses. These methods depend upon a formal understanding of the underlying degradation mechanisms and a database of experience which allows statistical analyses to extract numerical trends. At present, not all age degradation mechanisms are adequately modeled and available data for age degradation is in most cases insufficient. In addition, these methods tend to focus upon answers to isolated questions (e.g., What is the component failure rate?) rather than the more pertinent questions concerning operations and maintenance (e.g., should the component be replaced at the next outage). Fortunately, knowledge in the form of personal experience does exist which allows plant personnel to make decisions concerning operations and maintenance. This knowledge can be modeled using expert systems. This paper discusses CAGES (Component Aging Expert System). It combines expert rules (heuristics), probabilistic models, and deterministic models to make evaluations of component aging; predict the implications for component life extension, operational readiness, maintenance effectiveness, and safety, and make recommendations for maintenance and operation

  11. Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

    2017-08-01

    Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

  12. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  13. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  14. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  15. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  16. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  17. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

  18. Adaptability of expert visual anticipation in baseball batting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Sean; Fadde, Peter J; Harbaugh, Allen G

    2017-09-01

    By manipulating stimulus variation in terms of opponent pitcher actions, this study investigated the capability of expert (n = 30) and near-expert (n = 95) professional baseball batters to adapt anticipation skill when using the video simulation temporal occlusion paradigm. Participants watched in-game footage of two pitchers, one after the other, that was temporally occluded at ball release and various points during ball flight. They were required to make a written prediction of pitch types and locations. Per cent accuracy was calculated for pitch type, for pitch location, and for type and location combined. Results indicated that experts and near-experts could adapt their anticipation to predict above guessing level across both pitchers, but adaptation to the left-handed pitcher was poorer than the right-handed pitcher. Small-to-moderate effect sizes were found in terms of superior adaptation by experts over near-experts at the ball release and early ball flight occlusion conditions. The findings of this study extend theoretical and applied knowledge of expertise in striking sports. Practical application of the instruments and findings are discussed in terms of applied researchers, practitioners and high-performance staff in professional sporting organisations.

  19. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  20. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  1. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  2. An expert system for microbiologically influenced corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, C.E.; Licina, G.J.

    1991-01-01

    Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a damage mechanism that can cause serious degradation of service water system components. MIC can be particularly insidious since damage can occur very quickly, even in environments otherwise resistant to corrosion. Plant operations or maintenance personnel or system engineers typically do not have sufficient expertise to predict when and where MIC may occur or what methods of treatment are effective. An expert system (MICPro) has been devised which provides a tool for utilities to predict where MIC will occur, which systems or components are most susceptible, how operating parameters may affect vulnerability, and how to implement corrective and preventative measures. The system is designed to be simple to use: required inputs are common system parameters and results are presented as numbers from 1 to 10 indicating the likelihood of damage due to the given input. In this paper the structure and operation of the system is described, and future refinements are discussed

  3. ECG Rhythm Analysis with Expert and Learner-Generated Schemas in Novice Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blissett, Sarah; Cavalcanti, Rodrigo; Sibbald, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Although instruction using expert-generated schemas is associated with higher diagnostic performance, implementation is resource intensive. Learner-generated schemas are an alternative, but may be limited by increases in cognitive load. We compared expert- and learner-generated schemas for learning ECG rhythm interpretation on diagnostic accuracy,…

  4. Computer-assisted expert case definition in electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Alexander M; Zhou, Xiaofeng; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Weiss, Lisa S; Shen, Rongjun; Sobel, Rachel E; Bate, Andrew; Reynolds, Robert F

    2016-02-01

    To describe how computer-assisted presentation of case data can lead experts to infer machine-implementable rules for case definition in electronic health records. As an illustration the technique has been applied to obtain a definition of acute liver dysfunction (ALD) in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The technique consists of repeatedly sampling new batches of case candidates from an enriched pool of persons meeting presumed minimal inclusion criteria, classifying the candidates by a machine-implementable candidate rule and by a human expert, and then updating the rule so that it captures new distinctions introduced by the expert. Iteration continues until an update results in an acceptably small number of changes to form a final case definition. The technique was applied to structured data and terms derived by natural language processing from text records in 29,336 adults with IBD. Over three rounds the technique led to rules with increasing predictive value, as the experts identified exceptions, and increasing sensitivity, as the experts identified missing inclusion criteria. In the final rule inclusion and exclusion terms were often keyed to an ALD onset date. When compared against clinical review in an independent test round, the derived final case definition had a sensitivity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 79%. An iterative technique of machine-supported expert review can yield a case definition that accommodates available data, incorporates pre-existing medical knowledge, is transparent and is open to continuous improvement. The expert updates to rules may be informative in themselves. In this limited setting, the final case definition for ALD performed better than previous, published attempts using expert definitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An expert system for automated robotic grasping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stansfield, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    Many US Department of Energy sites and facilities will be environmentally remediated during the next several decades. A number of the restoration activities (e.g., decontamination and decommissioning of inactive nuclear facilities) can only be carried out by remote means and will be manipulation-intensive tasks. Experience has shown that manipulation tasks are especially slow and fatiguing for the human operator of a remote manipulator. In this paper, the authors present a rule-based expert system for automated, dextrous robotic grasping. This system interprets the features of an object to generate hand shaping and wrist orientation for a robot hand and arm. The system can be used in several different ways to lessen the demands on the human operator of a remote manipulation system - either as a fully autonomous grasping system or one that generates grasping options for a human operator and then automatically carries out the selected option

  6. IAEA Expert Team Returns from Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Full text: A senior IAEA expert team is returning from Iran after two days of discussions with Iranian officials held on 20 and 21 February 2012. The meeting followed previous discussions held on 29 to 31 January 2012. During both the first and second round of discussions, the Agency team requested access to the military site at Parchin. Iran did not grant permission for this visit to take place. Intensive efforts were made to reach agreement on a document facilitating the clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran's nuclear programme, particularly those relating to possible military dimensions. Unfortunately, agreement was not reached on this document. 'It is disappointing that Iran did not accept our request to visit Parchin during the first or second meetings', IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said. 'We engaged in a constructive spirit, but no agreement was reached'. (IAEA)

  7. Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

    2017-01-01

    Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

  8. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  9. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.

  10. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  11. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  12. Expert incentives: cure versus prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jaegher, K.

    This paper distinguishes between two scenarios for the expert-client encounter. In the cure scenario, the client does not know whether a loss can be recovered. In the prevention scenario, the client faces a threat but does not know whether this threat is real enough to justify preventive action. The

  13. The role of the expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeesters, P.

    1998-01-01

    The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

  14. Recruiting intensity

    OpenAIRE

    R. Jason Faberman

    2014-01-01

    To hire new workers, employers use a variety of recruiting methods in addition to posting a vacancy announcement. The intensity with which employers use these alternative methods can vary widely with a firm’s performance and with the business cycle. In fact, persistently low recruiting intensity helps to explain the sluggish pace of US job growth following the Great Recession.

  15. Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daud, A.H.

    1996-01-01

    This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

  16. Expert System Diagnosis of Cataract Eyes Using Fuzzy Mamdani Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, I.; Romla, L.; Herawati, S.

    2018-01-01

    Cataracts are eye diseases characterized by cloudy or opacity of the lens of the eye by changing the colour of black into grey-white which slowly continues to grow and develop without feeling pain and pain that can cause blindness in human vision. Therefore, researchers make an expert system of cataract eye disease diagnosis by using Fuzzy Mamdani and how to care. The fuzzy method can convert the crisp value to linguistic value by fuzzification and includes in the rule. So this system produces an application program that can help the public in knowing cataract eye disease and how to care based on the symptoms suffered. From the results of the design implementation and testing of expert system applications to diagnose eye disease cataracts, it can be concluded that from a trial of 50 cases of data, obtained test results accuracy between system predictions with expert predictions obtained a value of 78% truth.

  17. Inferred equations for predicting cumulative exergy extraction throughout cradle-to-gate life cycles of Pangasius feeds and intensive Pangasius grow-out farms in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nhu, Trang T.; Le, Quan H.; Heide, ter Peter; Bosma, Roel; Sorgeloos, Patrick; Dewulf, Jo; Schaubroeck, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Intensive Pangasius aquaculture in Vietnam has attracted concerns about the sustainability of its resource use. However, the assessment of the latter, using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is a time-consuming and complex task. To establish a simplified approach, especially relevant for certification

  18. Radiological social risk perception: something more than experts/ public discrepancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prades Lopez, Ana; Gonzalez Reyes, Felisa

    1998-01-01

    One of the most important concerns of the postindustrial societies lies on the specification and quantification of risk, the Risk Assesment. However, the efforts and resources devoted to such goal have not avoided a growing worry about both the environmental conditions and the situations that potentially threaten it, generating an intense social debate about risks. In this framework, discrepancies between experts and public evaluations risks leaded to the study of social Risk perception. Several theoretical scopes have tried to characterize the phenomenon. A worthy conclusion of the empirical studies carried out on this issue is that all of them, experts and public, are influence by some factors which, in turns, affect their risk perception,. Specially striking is the fact that perception of risk among experts is also modulated by qualitative, personal and social factors. Social Risk Perception, through the process of Communication and Social Participation, has been configurated as a critical tool for both risk prevention and management

  19. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  20. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  1. Expert systems applied to two problems in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, K.Y.

    1988-01-01

    This dissertation describes two prototype expert systems applied to two problems in nuclear power plants. One problem is spare parts inventory control, and the other one is radionuclide release from containment during severe accident. The expert system for spare parts inventory control can handle spare parts requirements not only in corrective, preventive, or predictive maintenance, but also when failure rates of components or parts are updated by new data. Costs and benefits of spare parts inventory acquisition are evaluated with qualitative attributes such as spare part availability to provide the inventory manager with an improved basis for decision making. The expert system is implemented with Intelligence/Compiler on an IBM-AT. The other expert system for radionuclide release from containment can estimate magnitude, type, location, and time of release of radioactive materials from containment during a severe accident nearly on line, based on the actual measured physical parameters such as temperature and pressure inside the containment. The expert system has a function to check the validation of sensor data. The expert system is implemented with KEE on a Symbolics LISP machine

  2. Macroseismic intensity attenuation in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman

    2018-01-01

    Macroseismic intensity data plays an important role in the process of seismic hazard analysis as well in developing of reliable earthquake loss models. This paper presents a physical-based model to predict macroseismic intensity attenuation based on 560 intensity data obtained in Iran in the time period 1975-2013. The geometric spreading and energy absorption of seismic waves have been considered in the proposed model. The proposed easy to implement relation describes the intensity simply as a function of moment magnitude, source to site distance and focal depth. The prediction capability of the proposed model is assessed by means of residuals analysis. Prediction results have been compared with those of other intensity prediction models for Italy, Turkey, Iran and central Asia. The results indicate the higher attenuation rate for the study area in distances less than 70km.

  3. Sound intensity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crocker, Malcolm J.; Jacobsen, Finn

    1998-01-01

    This chapter is an overview, intended for readers with no special knowledge about this particular topic. The chapter deals with all aspects of sound intensity and its measurement from the fundamental theoretical background to practical applications of the measurement technique.......This chapter is an overview, intended for readers with no special knowledge about this particular topic. The chapter deals with all aspects of sound intensity and its measurement from the fundamental theoretical background to practical applications of the measurement technique....

  4. Sound Intensity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crocker, M.J.; Jacobsen, Finn

    1997-01-01

    This chapter is an overview, intended for readers with no special knowledge about this particular topic. The chapter deals with all aspects of sound intensity and its measurement from the fundamental theoretical background to practical applications of the measurement technique.......This chapter is an overview, intended for readers with no special knowledge about this particular topic. The chapter deals with all aspects of sound intensity and its measurement from the fundamental theoretical background to practical applications of the measurement technique....

  5. The Standardized Histogram Shift of T2 Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) Signal Intensities of Nephroblastoma Does Not Predict Histopathological Diagnostic Information

    OpenAIRE

    M?ller, Sabine; David, Ruslan; Marias, Kostas; Graf, Norbert

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to assess standardized histograms of signal intensities of T2-weighted magnetic resonance image (MRI) modality before and after preoperative chemotherapy for nephroblastoma (Wilms? tumor). All analyzed patients are enrolled in the International Society of Paediatric Oncology (SIOP) 2001/GPOH trial.1 The question to be answered is whether the comparison of the histograms can add new knowledge by comparing them with the histology of the tumor after preoperative ch...

  6. Expert Systems in Government Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Weintraub, Joseph

    1989-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical appli...

  7. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  8. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  10. Predicting prolonged intensive care unit length of stay in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery--development of an entirely preoperative scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Christine; Karolak, Wojtek; Yip, Alexandra M; Buth, Karen J; Hassan, Ansar; Légaré, Jean-Francois

    2009-10-01

    We sought to develop a predictive model based exclusively on preoperative factors to identify patients at risk for PrlICULOS following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Retrospective analysis was performed on patients undergoing isolated CABG at a single center between June 1998 and December 2002. PrlICULOS was defined as initial admission to ICU exceeding 72 h. A parsimonious risk-predictive model was constructed on the basis of preoperative factors, with subsequent internal validation. Of 3483 patients undergoing isolated CABG between June 1998 and December 2002, 411 (11.8%) experienced PrlICULOS. Overall in-hospital mortality was higher among these patients (14.4% vs. 1.2%, Prisk predictive model of PrlICULOS in patients undergoing CABG was constructed. Based on preoperative clinical factors, a scorecard was developed allowing identification of these patients prior to surgery and allowing for strategies aimed at optimizing hospital resources.

  11. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  12. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  13. Toxicity management of angiogenesis inhibitors: resolution of expert panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel O. Rumiantsev

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available On 22 June 2017 in St. Petersburg the expert panel was held on the topic “Management of toxicity of angiogenesis inhibitors”, which discussed current issues of systemic therapy of advanced differentiated thyroid cancer resistant to radioactive iodine therapy, advanced kidney cancer and questions of efficacy and safety of new target drugs in the treatment of these diseases. The reports and discussions of experts raised the following questions: 1. Own experience of using lenvatinib in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer refractory to therapy with radioactive iodine and kidney cancer. 2. Profile of efficacy and safety of modern targeted therapy with multikinase inhibitors. 3. Prophylaxis and management of predictable toxicity.

  14. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  15. Predictive factors on the efficacy and risk/intensity of tooth sensitivity of dental bleaching: A multi regression and logistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, Márcia; Loguercio, Alessandro D; Kossatz, Stella; Reis, Alessandra

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to identify predictor factors associated with the whitening outcome and risk and intensity of bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity from pooled data of 11 clinical trials of dental bleaching performed by the same research group. The individual patient data of several published and ongoing studies about dental bleaching was collected and retrospectively analyzed. At the patient-level, independent variables (bleaching techniques [at-home and in-office protocols], sex, age and baseline tooth color in shade guide unit [SGU]) as well as dependent variables (color change in shade guide units (ΔSGU), color change in the CIEL*a*b* system (ΔE), risk and intensity of TS in a visual analog scale) were collected. Multivariable linear regression and multivariable logistic regression models were carried out using backward elimination whenever the p-values were higher than 0.05. A significant relationship between baseline color and age on color change estimates was detected (pwhitening degree of 0.07 for the final ΔSGU and 0.69 for the ΔE. The bleaching technique was shown to be a significant predictor of ΔSGU (prisk of TS for at-home bleaching was 51% (95% CI 41.4-60.6) and for the in-office 62.9% (95% CI 56.9-67.3). Younger patients with darker teeth reach a higher degree of whitening. Patient with darker teeth and submitted to at-home bleaching presents lower risk and intensity of TS. The baseline color of the teeth and the patient's age is directly related to the effectiveness of dental bleaching and TS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The pediatric index of mortality 3 score to predict mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit in Palembang, South Sumatera, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Destiana Sera Puspita Sari

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion In Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang, South Sumatera, the PIM 3 can be used to predict mortality in PICU patients, but the score should be multiplied by a factor of 2.24. This recalibration is needed due to the presumed lower standard of care at this hospital compared to that of the originating PIM 3 institutions in developed countries.

  17. An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, David

    1990-01-01

    A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

  18. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  19. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  20. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  1. Expert Oracle GoldenGate

    CERN Document Server

    Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica

  2. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  3. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  4. A risk scoring model based on vital signs and laboratory data predicting transfer to the intensive care unit of patients admitted to gastroenterology wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Won-Young; Lee, Jinmi; Lee, Ju-Ry; Jung, Youn Kyung; Kim, Hwa Jung; Huh, Jin Won; Lim, Chae-Man; Koh, Younsuck; Hong, Sang-Bum

    2017-08-01

    To compare the ability of a score based on vital signs and laboratory data with that of the modified early warning score (MEWS) to predict ICU transfer of patients with gastrointestinal disorders. Consecutive events triggering medical emergency team activation in adult patients admitted to the gastroenterology wards of the Asan Medical Center were reviewed. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting transfer to the ICU. Gastrointestinal early warning score (EWS-GI) was calculated as the sum of simplified regression weights (SRW). Of the 1219 included patients, 468 (38%) were transferred to the ICU. Multivariate analysis identified heart rate≥105bpm (SRW 1), respiratory rate≥26bpm (SRW 2), ACDU (Alert, Confused, Drowsy, Unresponsive) score≥1 (SRW 2), SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratiogastroenterology wards. The EWS-GI should be prospectively validated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

    2011-01-01

    REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

  6. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  7. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  8. Regional brain activity during early-stage intense romantic love predicted relationship outcomes after 40 months: an fMRI assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaomeng; Brown, Lucy; Aron, Arthur; Cao, Guikang; Feng, Tingyong; Acevedo, Bianca; Weng, Xuchu

    2012-09-20

    Early-stage romantic love is associated with activation in reward and motivation systems of the brain. Can these localized activations, or others, predict long-term relationship stability? We contacted participants from a previous fMRI study of early-stage love by Xu et al. [34] after 40 months from initial assessments. We compared brain activation during the initial assessment at early-stage love for those who were still together at 40 months and those who were apart, and surveyed those still together about their relationship happiness and commitment at 40 months. Six participants who were still with their partners at 40 months (compared to six who had broken up) showed less activation during early-stage love in the medial orbitofrontal cortex, right subcallosal cingulate and right accumbens, regions implicated in long-term love and relationship satisfaction [1,2]. These regions of deactivation at the early stage of love were also negatively correlated with relationship happiness scores collected at 40 months. Other areas involved were the caudate tail, and temporal and parietal lobes. These data are preliminary evidence that neural responses in the early stages of romantic love can predict relationship stability and quality up to 40 months later in the relationship. The brain regions involved suggest that forebrain reward functions may be predictive for relationship stability, as well as regions involved in social evaluation, emotional regulation, and mood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk taking in adversarial situations: Civilization differences in chess experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chassy, Philippe; Gobet, Fernand

    2015-08-01

    The projections of experts in politics predict that a new world order will emerge within two decades. Being multipolar, this world will inevitably lead to frictions where civilizations and states will have to decide whether to risk conflict. Very often these decisions are informed if not taken by experts. To estimate risk-taking across civilizations, we examined strategies used in 667,599 chess games played over eleven years by chess experts from 11 different civilizations. We show that some civilizations are more inclined to settle for peace. Similarly, we show that once engaged in the battle, the level of risk taking varies significantly across civilizations, the boldest civilization using the riskiest strategy about 35% more than the most conservative civilization. We discuss which psychological factors might underpin these civilizational differences. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Application of fuzzy expert system on LILW performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, F.L. de; Sullivan, T.

    2002-01-01

    A complete LILW repository performance assessment requires the involvement between several experts in many fields of science. Many sources of uncertainties arise due to complexity of interaction of environmental parameters, lack of data and ignorance, this makes predictive analysis and interpretation difficult. This difficulty in understanding the impact of the ambiguities is even higher when it comes to public and decision makers involvement. Traditional methods of data analysis, while having strong mathematical basis, many times are not adequate to deal with ambiguous data. These ambiguities can be an obstacle to make the results easier to understand and defensible. A methodology of decision making, based on fuzzy logic, can help the interaction between experts, decision makers and the public. This method is the basis of an expert system which can help the analysis of very complex and ambiguous processes. (author)

  11. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  12. Expert systems in process control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittig, T.

    1987-01-01

    To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

  13. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  14. Solar induced long- and short-term variations of the cosmic ray intensity in the past, and predictions and opportunities for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.

    2009-12-01

    The cosmogenic radionuclide data from the past 10,000 years, and the instrumental cosmic ray data since 1936 provide detailed information on the possible consequences of the present long and deep solar minimum. Furthermore, the cosmic ray transport equation has been used to estimate the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout the past 10,000 years. This paper presents a series of figures that document the behavior of both the cosmic radiation and the IMF at Earth in the past. In particular, the 11-year cycles in both quantities for the past 600 years are displayed; and estimates given of the cosmic ray spectrum at Earth for situations that history tells us may occur in the near future. Over the longer term, a minimum of the Hallstatt cycle (2200 yr periodicity) of solar activity occurred ~500 years ago and the Sun is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity has decreased extremely rapidly after earlier prolonged deep minima and this suggests rapid and large changes in the heliospheric conditions that we may see replicated. The paper will also display data from the deep, isolated solar minimum of 1956 that exhibited unusual low energy cosmic ray fluxes, and a highly anomalous cosmic ray gradient in the inner heliosphere. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence will also be displayed of an episode of intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the interval of reduced solar activity, 1892-1900, that may possibly be repeated. If the present long, deep solar minimum is a precursor to a “Grand Minimum” such as the Dalton minimum, it will provide a much improved insight into the spectrum of the cosmic radiation in interstellar space, and to the cosmic ray modulation process in the heliosphere. With this in mind, the paper suggests key measurements, and speculates on experimental conditions that may be markedly different from those encountered in the instrumental era.

  15. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  16. Expert system verification and validation for nuclear power industry applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naser, J.A.

    1990-01-01

    The potential for the use of expert systems in the nuclear power industry is widely recognized. The benefits of such systems include consistency of reasoning during off-normal situations when humans are under great stress, the reduction of times required to perform certain functions, the prevention of equipment failures through predictive diagnostics, and the retention of human expertise in performing specialized functions. The increased use of expert systems brings with it concerns about their reliability. Difficulties arising from software problems can affect plant safety, reliability, and availability. A joint project between EPRI and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being initiated to develop a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems for nuclear power applications. This methodology will be tested on existing and developing expert systems. This effort will explore the applicability of conventional verification and validation methodologies to expert systems. The major area of concern will be certification of the knowledge base. This is expected to require new types of verification and validation techniques. A methodology for developing validation scenarios will also be studied

  17. Diagnosing battery behavior with an expert system in Prolog

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirkwood, N.; Weeks, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    Power for the Hubble Space Telescope comes from a system of 20 solar panel assemblies (SPAs) and six nickel-cadmium batteries. The HST battery system is simulated by the HST Electrical Power System (EPS) testbed at Marshall Space Flight Center. The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System (NICBES) is being used to diagnose faults of the testbed system, evaluate battery status and provide decision support for the engineer. Extensive telemetry of system operating conditions is relayed through a DEC LSI-11, and sent on to an IBM PC-AT. A BASIC program running on the PC monitors the flow of data, figures cell divergence and recharge ratio and stores these values, along with other selected data, for use by the expert system. The expert system is implemented in the logic programming language Prolog. It has three modes of operation: fault diagnosis, status and advice, and decision support. An alert or failure of the system will trigger a diagnosis by the system to assist the operator. The operator can also request battery status information as well as a number of plots and histograms of recent battery behavior. Trends in EOC and EOD voltage, recharge ratio and divergence are used by the expert system in its analysis of battery status. A future enhancement to the system includes the statistical prediction of battery life. Incorporating learning into the expert system is another possible enhancement; This is a difficult task, but one which could promise great rewards in improved battery performance

  18. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

  19. Intensive mobilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vannini, Phillip; Bissell, David; Jensen, Ole B.

    with fieldwork conducted in Canada, Denmark and Australia to develop our understanding of the experiential politics of long distance workers. Rather than focusing on the extensive dimensions of mobilities that are implicated in patterns and trends, our paper turns to the intensive dimensions of this experience......This paper explores the intensities of long distance commuting journeys as a way of exploring how bodily sensibilities are being changed by the mobilities that they undertake. The context of this paper is that many people are travelling further to work than ever before owing to a variety of factors...... which relate to transport, housing and employment. Yet we argue that the experiential dimensions of long distance mobilities have not received the attention that they deserve within geographical research on mobilities. This paper combines ideas from mobilities research and contemporary social theory...

  20. An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G

    2018-04-01

    Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the

  1. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  2. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  3. Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihong Feng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to investigate the efficacy of four severity-of-disease scoring systems in predicting the 28-day survival rate among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD requiring emergency care. Clinical data of patients with AECOPD who required emergency care were recorded over 2 years. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and MEDS scores were calculated from severity-of-disease indicators recorded at admission and compared between patients who died within 28 days of admission (death group; 46 patients and those who did not (survival group; 336 patients. Compared to the survival group, the death group had a significantly higher GCS score, frequency of comorbidities including hypertension and heart failure, and age (P<0.05 for all. With all four systems, scores of age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and the GCS were significantly higher in the death group than the survival group. The prediction efficacy of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 88.4%. The survival rates did not differ significantly between APACHE II and SAPS II (P=1.519. Our results may guide triage for early identification of critically ill patients with AECOPD in the emergency department.

  4. SAMEX: A severe accident management support expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il

    2010-01-01

    A decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant is being developed which is aided by a severe accident risk database module and a severe accident management simulation module. The severe accident management support expert (SAMEX) system can provide the various types of diagnostic and predictive assistance based on the real-time plant specific safety parameters. It consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) severe accident risk data base module (SARDB), (b) risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD), (c) severe accident management simulation module (SAMS), and (d) on-line severe accident management guidance module (on-line SAMG). The modules are integrated into a code package that executes within a WINDOWS XP operating environment, using extensive user friendly graphics control. In Korea, the integrated approach of the decision support system is being carried out under the nuclear R and D program planned by the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST). An objective of the project is to develop the support system which can show a theoretical possibility. If the system is feasible, the project team will recommend the radiation protection technical support center of a national regulatory body to implement a plant specific system, which is applicable to a real accident, for the purpose of immediate and various diagnosis based on the given plant status information and of prediction of an expected accident progression under a severe accident situation.

  5. Prognosis prediction of non-enhancing T2 high signal intensity lesions in glioblastoma patients after standard treatment: application of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Rihyeon; Yun, Tae Jin; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Sohn, Chul-Ho [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Seung Hong [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, 103 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, Center for Nanoparticle Research, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Daehak-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, School of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Daehak-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Soon-Tae [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Neurology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chul-Kee [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Min [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sun-Won [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, SMG-SNU Boramae Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sung-Hye [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Il Han [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    To identify candidate imaging biomarkers for early disease progression in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients by analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MR parameters of non-enhancing T2 high signal intensity (SI) lesions. Forty-nine GBM patients who had undergone preoperative DCE MR imaging and received standard treatment were retrospectively included. According to the Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology criteria, patients were classified into progression (n = 21) or non-progression (n = 28) groups. We analysed the pharmacokinetic parameters of Ktrans, Ve and Vp within non-enhancing T2 high SI lesions of each tumour. The best percentiles of each parameter from cumulative histograms were identified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and were compared using multivariate stepwise logistic regression. For the differentiation of early disease progression, the highest AUC values were found in the 99th percentile of Ktrans (AUC 0.954), the 97th percentile of Ve (AUC 0.815) and the 94th percentile of Vp (AUC 0.786) (all p < 0.05). The 99th percentile of Ktrans was the only significant independent variable from the multivariate stepwise logistic regression (p = 0.002). We found that the Ktrans of non-enhancing T2 high SI lesions in GBM patients holds potential as a candidate prognostic marker in future prospective studies. (orig.)

  6. Increased signal intensity of prostate lesions on high b-value diffusion-weighted images as a predictive sign of malignancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quentin, Michael; Schimmoeller, Lars; Antoch, Gerald; Blondin, Dirk; Arsov, Christian; Rabenalt, Robert; Albers, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of lesions detected in prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with increased signal intensity (SI) on high b-value diffusion-weighted images as a sign of malignancy. One hundred and three consecutive patients with prostate MRI examination and MRI-guided in-bore biopsy were retrospectively included in the study. MRI-guided in-bore biopsy histologically confirmed prostate cancer in 50 patients (n = 92 lesions). The other 53 patients (n = 122 lesions) had negative bioptical results. In patients with histologically confirmed prostate cancer, 46 of the 92 lesions had visually increased SI on the high b-value images compared with the peripheral zone (SI = +27 ± 16%) or the central gland (SI = +37 ± 19%, P < 0.001 respectively). In patients with a negative biopsy, ten of the 122 lesions had visually increased SI (compared with the peripheral zone, SI = +29 ± 18%, and with the central gland, SI = +41 ± 15%, P < 0.001 respectively). Neither the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values nor the Gleason Score of lesions with increased SI were significantly different from lesions without increased SI. Visually increased SI on the high b-value images of diffusion-weighted imaging using standard b-values is a sign of malignancy but can occasionally also be a feature of benign lesions. However, it does not indicate more aggressive tumours. (orig.)

  7. Receipt of maintenance therapy is most predictive of survival in older acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients treated with intensive induction chemotherapy regimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsburg, Daniel J; Stadtmauer, Edward; Loren, Alison; Goldstein, Steven; Frey, Noelle; Nasta, Sunita D; Porter, David L; Tsai, Donald E; Perl, Alexander E; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Luger, Selina

    2013-08-01

    While the prognosis for older adults diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is frequently poor, long-term survival can be achieved in patients treated with curative intent. We reviewed the outcomes of 37 patients age ≥60 treated at our institution with either DVP- or hyperCVAD-based chemotherapy regimens from 2003-2011. In this patient population, a complete response rate of 92%, relapse rate of 56% and median overall survival of 18.1 months was experienced. Univariate analysis revealed that receipt of maintenance therapy vs. no maintenance therapy was associated with a statistically-significant impact on overall survival (p = 0.001, HR 0.15 for death), while disease-related characteristics including high-risk white blood cell count at diagnosis and Philadelphia chromosome status as well as treatment-related factors including chemotherapy regimen or completion of intensive therapy were not. Many patients were unable to initiate or remain on maintenance therapy due to toxicities including infections and cytopenias. Our analysis reveals the benefit of prolonged therapy in the treatment of older adults with ALL as well as the high incidence of treatment-related toxicity experienced by these patients. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

    1999-01-01

    Governmental bodies are confronted with the problem of achieving rational consensus in the face of substantial uncertainties. The area of accident consequence management for nuclear power plants affords a good example. Decisions with regard to evacuation, decontamination, and food bans must be taken on the basis of predictions of environmental transport of radioactive material, contamination through the food chain, cancer induction, and the like. These predictions use mathematical models containing scores of uncertain parameters. Decision makers want to take, and want to be perceived to take, these decisions in a rational manner. The question is, how can this be accomplished in the face of large uncertainties? Indeed, the very presence of uncertainty poses a threat to rational consensus. Decision makers will necessarily base their actions on the judgments of experts. The experts, however, will not agree among themselves, as otherwise we would not speak of large uncertainties. Any given expert's viewpoint will be favorable to the interests of some stakeholders, and hostile to the interests of others. If a decision maker bases his/her actions on the views of one single expert, then (s)he is invariably open to charges of partiality toward the interests favored by this viewpoint. An appeal to 'impartial' or 'disinterested' experts will fail for two reasons. First, experts have interests; they have jobs, mortgages and professional reputations. Second, even if expert interests could somehow be quarantined, even then the experts would disagree. Expert disagreement is not explained by diverging interests, and consensus cannot be reached by shielding the decision process from expert interests. If rational consensus requires expert agreement, then rational consensus is simply not possible in the face of uncertainty. If rational consensus under uncertainty is to be achieved, then evidently the views of a diverse set of experts must be taken into account. The question is how

  9. Database, expert systems, information retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.

    1989-12-01

    The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)

  10. The useability of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This talk presents the case that it is the user of an Expert System (ES), and the user alone, who must decide on the acceptability of such a system. Further, the useability of an ES is principally a function of the user interface: if a system takes a long time to learn, it will not be used effectively. Some ES are implemented on computers with command line interfaces. It is shown (via a live demonstration using a computer) that such systems restrict the AI professiona's ability to deliver a system which is satisfactory from the use's viewpoint: the limitations of the computer system will dictate the user interface, independently of the user requirements. Only a computer system with a graphical interface can supply the versatility and functionality required by the user. Examples of graphical interface facilities are given

  11. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  12. TIMP-2*IGFBP7 (Nephrocheck® Measurements at Intensive Care Unit Admission After Cardiac Surgery are Predictive for Acute Kidney Injury Within 48 Hours

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Oezkur

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Acute kidney injury (AKI is a postoperative complication after cardiac surgery with a high impact on mortality and morbidity. Nephrocheck® [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] determines markers of tubular stress, which occurs prior to tubular damage. It is unknown at which time-point [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] measurement should be performed to ideally predict AKI. We investigated the association of [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] at various time-points with the incidence of AKI in patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery including cardio-pulmonary bypass. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, serial blood and urine samples were collected from 150 patients: pre-operative, at ICU-admission, 24h and 48h post-surgery. AKI was defined as Serum-Creatinine rise >0.3 mg/dl within 48hrs. Urinary [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] was measured at pre-operative, ICU-admission and 24h post-surgery; medical staff was kept blinded to these results. Results: A total of 35 patients (23.5% experienced AKI, with a higher incidence in those with high [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] values at ICU admission (57.1% vs. 10.1%, p<0.001. In logistic regression [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] at ICU admission was independently associated with the occurrence of AKI (Odds Ratio 11.83; p<0.001, C-statistic= 0.74 after adjustment for EuroSCORE II and CBP-time. Conclusions: Early detection of elevated [TIMP-2*IGFBP7] at ICU admission was strongly predictive for postoperative AKI and appeared to be more precise as compared to subsequent measurements.

  13. Hybrid expert system implementation to determine core reload patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greek, K.J.; Robinson, A.H.

    1989-01-01

    Determining reactor reload fuel patterns is a computationally intensive problem solving process for which automation can be of significant benefit. Often much effort is expended in the search for an optimal loading. While any modern programming language could be used to automate solution, the specialized tools of artificial intelligence (AI) are the most efficient means of introducing the fuel management expert's knowledge into the search for an optimum reload pattern. Prior research in pressurized water reactor refueling strategies developed FORTRAN programs that automated an expert's basic knowledge to direct a search for an acceptable minimum peak power loading. The dissatisfaction with maintenance of compiled knowledge in FORTRAN programs has served as the motivation for the development of the SHUFFLE expert system. SHUFFLE is written in Smalltalk, an object-oriented programming language, and evaluates loadings as it generates them using a two-group, two-dimensional nodal power calculation compiled in a personal computer-based FORTRAN. This paper reviews the object-oriented representation developed to solve the core reload problem with an expert system tool and its operating prototype, SHUFFLE

  14. Strategies for adding adaptive learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stclair, D. C.; Sabharwal, C. L.; Bond, W. E.; Hacke, Keith

    1988-01-01

    Rule-based diagnostic expert systems can be used to perform many of the diagnostic chores necessary in today's complex space systems. These expert systems typically take a set of symptoms as input and produce diagnostic advice as output. The primary objective of such expert systems is to provide accurate and comprehensive advice which can be used to help return the space system in question to nominal operation. The development and maintenance of diagnostic expert systems is time and labor intensive since the services of both knowledge engineer(s) and domain expert(s) are required. The use of adaptive learning mechanisms to increment evaluate and refine rules promises to reduce both time and labor costs associated with such systems. This paper describes the basic adaptive learning mechanisms of strengthening, weakening, generalization, discrimination, and discovery. Next basic strategies are discussed for adding these learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems. These strategies support the incremental evaluation and refinement of rules in the knowledge base by comparing the set of advice given by the expert system (A) with the correct diagnosis (C). Techniques are described for selecting those rules in the in the knowledge base which should participate in adaptive learning. The strategies presented may be used with a wide variety of learning algorithms. Further, these strategies are applicable to a large number of rule-based diagnostic expert systems. They may be used to provide either immediate or deferred updating of the knowledge base.

  15. An Accurate and Impartial Expert Assignment Method for Scientific Project Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingliang Yue

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes an expert assignment method for scientific project review that considers both accuracy and impartiality. As impartial and accurate peer review is extremely important to ensure the quality and feasibility of scientific projects, enhanced methods for managing the process are needed. Design/methodology/approach: To ensure both accuracy and impartiality, we design four criteria, the reviewers’ fitness degree, research intensity, academic association, and potential conflict of interest, to express the characteristics of an appropriate peer review expert. We first formalize the expert assignment problem as an optimization problem based on the designed criteria, and then propose a randomized algorithm to solve the expert assignment problem of identifying reviewer adequacy. Findings: Simulation results show that the proposed method is quite accurate and impartial during expert assignment. Research limitations: Although the criteria used in this paper can properly show the characteristics of a good and appropriate peer review expert, more criteria/conditions can be included in the proposed scheme to further enhance accuracy and impartiality of the expert assignment. Practical implications: The proposed method can help project funding agencies (e.g. the National Natural Science Foundation of China find better experts for project peer review. Originality/value: To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication that proposes an algorithm that applies an impartial approach to the project review expert assignment process. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Design of groundwater pollution expert system: forward chaining and interfacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    The groundwater pollution expert system (GWPES was developed by C Language Integrate Production System (CLEPS). The control techniques of this system consider some conclusion and then attempts to prove it by searching for supportive information from the database. The inference process goes in forward chaining of this system such as predicting groundwater pollution vulnerability, predicting the effect of nitrogen fertiliser, agricultural impact and project development on groundwater pollution potential. In GWPES, forward chaining system begins with a matching of inputs with the existing database of groundwater environment and activities impact of the project development. While, interaction between an expert system and user is conducted in simple English language. The interaction is highly interactive. A basis design with simple Graphic User Interface (GUI) to input data and by asking simple questions. (author)

  17. Using Multivariate Regression Model with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions

  18. Combining Crowd and Expert Labels using Decision Theoretic Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-11

    including those la- beled by a classifier trained on using the labels acquired so far). For example, a simple loss function would just be the number...model is used to predict the probability that each crowd la- beled item is correct. This estimate is in turn used to weight the corresponding...costs) for each state using Algorithm 1 as a subroutine. We consider taking the possible action for each item not yet la- beled by the expert. Thus each

  19. Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

    2017-11-01

    The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

  1. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

  2. Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parcy, J.P.

    1982-09-01

    A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

  3. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  4. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  5. Succession planning for technical experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue; Cain, Ronald A.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; Agreda, Carla L.

    2017-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  6. Succession planning for technical experts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  7. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance. PMID:29662261

  8. Expert system development (ESD) shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmini, S.; Diwakar, M.P.; Rathode, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.

    1991-01-01

    An Expert System Development (ESD) Shell design implementation is desribed in detail. The shell provides high-level generic facilities for Knowledge Representation (KR) and inferencing and tools for developing user interfaces. Powerful set of tools in the shell relieves much of the programming burden in the ES development. The shell is written in PROLOG under IBM PC/AT. KR facilities are based on two very powerful formalisms namely, frames and rules. Inference Engine (IE) draws most of its power from unification and backward reasoning strategy in PROLOG. This basic mechanism is enhanced further by incorporating both forward and backward chaining of rules and frame-based inferencing. Overall programming style integrates multiple paradigms including logic, object oriented, access-oriented and imperative programming. This permits ES designer a lot of flexibility in organizing inference control. Creation and maintainance of knowledge base is a major activity. The shell, therefore, provides number of facilities to simplify these tasks. Shell design also takes note of the fact that final success of any system depends on end-user satisfaction and hence provides features to build use-friendly interfaces. The shell also provides a set of interfacing predicates so that it can be embedded within any PROLOG program to incorporate functionalilty of the shell in the user program. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs

  9. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Jaramillo, Patricio; Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-12-30

    The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance.

  10. On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; ElSaadany, Susie; Huang Xinzheng

    2008-01-01

    Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment database, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance-based weighting from the classical model [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991.], social network (SN) weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to SN weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative to performance-based combination of expert judgments, since the statistical accuracy of the SN decision maker is sometimes unacceptably low. On the other hand, it does outperform equal weighting in the majority of cases. The results here, though not overwhelmingly positive, do nonetheless motivate further research into social interaction methods for nominating and weighting experts. Indeed, a full expert judgment study with performance measurement requires an investment in time and effort, with a view to securing external validation. If high confidence in a comparable level of validation can be obtained by less intensive methods, this would be very welcome, and would facilitate the application of structured expert judgment in situations where the resources for a full study are not available. Likelihood weights are just as resource intensive as performance-based weights, and the evidence presented here suggests that they are inferior to performance-based weights with regard to those scoring variables which are optimized in performance weights (calibration and information). Perhaps surprisingly, they are also inferior with regard to likelihood. Their use is further discouraged by the fact that they constitute a strongly improper scoring rule

  11. Operational expert system applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Zarri, Gian Piero

    1992-01-01

    Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

  12. Expert database system for quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

    1993-09-01

    There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

  13. BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

  14. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

  15. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

  16. Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumnall, Matthew; Peduzzi, Alicia; Fox, Thomas R.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Thomas, Valerie A.; Cook, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were

  17. Coal Quality Expert: Status and software specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, C.D.

    1992-01-01

    Under the Clean Coal Technology Program (Clean Coal Round 1), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are funding the development and demonstration of a computer program called the Coal Quality Expert (CQE trademark). When finished, the CQE will be a comprehensive PC-based program which can be used to evaluate several potential coal cleaning, blending, and switching options to reduce power plant emissions while minimizing generation costs. The CQE will be flxible in nature and capable of evaluating various qualities of coal, available transportation options, performance issues, and alternative emissions control strategies. This allows the CQE to determine the most cost-effective coal and the least expensive emissions control strategy for a given plant. To accomplish this, the CQE will be composed of technical models to evaluate performance issues; environmental models to evaluate environmental and regulatory issues; and cost estimating models to predict costs for installations of new and retrofit coal cleaning processes, power production equipment, and emissions control systems as well as other production costs such as consumables (fuel, scrubber additive, etc.), waste disposal, operating and maintenance, and replacement energy costs. These technical, environmental, and economic models as well as a graphical user interface will be developed for the CQE. And, in addition, to take advantage of already existing capability, the CQE will rely on seamless integration of already proven and extensively used computer programs such as the EPRI Coal Quality Information Systems, Coal Quality Impact Model (CQIM trademark), and NO x Pert. 2 figs

  18. The expert assistant in accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goddard, A.J.H.; Cannell, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    In the event of a nuclear accident in proximity to an urban area, the consequences resulting from the complex processes of environmental transport of radioactivity would require complex countermeasures. Emphasis has been placed on either modelling the potential effects of such an event on the population, or on attempting to predict the geographical evolution of the release. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of accident management aids with a in-built data acquisition capability. Given the problems of predicting the evolution of an accidental release of activity, more emphasis should be placed on the development of small regional systems specifically engineered to acquire and display environmental data in the most efficaceous form possible. A wealth of information can be obtained from appropriately-sited outstations which can aid those responsible for countermeasures in their decision making processes. The substantial volume of data which would arrive within the duration and during the aftermath of an accident requires skilled interpretation under conditions of considerable stress. It is necessary that a management aid notonly presents these data in a rapidly assimilable form, but is capable of making intelligent decisions of its own, on such matters as information display priority and the polling frequency of outstations. The requirement is for an expert assistant. The XERSES accident management aid has been designed with the foregoing features in mind. Intended for covering regions up to approximately 100 kms square, it links with between 1 and 64 outstations supplying a variety of environmental data. Under quiescent conditions the system will operate unattended, raising alarms remotely only when detecting abnormal conditions. Under emergency conditions, the system automatically adjusts such operating parameters as data acquisition rate

  19. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  20. An abnormal event advisory expert system prototype for reactor operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hance, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear plant operators must respond correctly during abnormal conditions in the presence of dynamic and potentially overwhelming volumes of information. For this reason, considerable effort has been directed toward the development of nuclear plant operator aids using artificial intelligence techniques. The objective of such systems is to diagnose abnormal conditions within the plant, possibly predict consequences, and advise the operators of corrective actions in a timely manner. The objective of the work is the development of a prototype expert system to diagnose abnormal events at a nuclear power plant and advise plant operators of the event and applicable procedures in an on-line mode. The major difference between this effort and previous work is the use of plant operating procedures as a knowledge source and as an integral part of the advice provided by the expert system. The acceptance by utilities of expert systems as operator aids requires that such systems be compatible with the regulatory environment and provide economic benefits. For this reason, commercially viable operator aid systems developed in the near future must complement existing plant procedures rather than reach beyond them in a revolutionary manner. A knowledge source is the resource providing facts and relationships that are coded into the expert system program. In this case, the primary source of knowledge is a set of selected abnormal operating procedures for a modern Westinghouse pressurized water reactor

  1. Hilar cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, John C; Aloia, Thomas A; Crane, Christopher H; Heimbach, Julie K; Nagino, Masato; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas

    2015-08-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of hilar cholangiocarcinoma in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree consensus statements. It was established that the treatment of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize the chances for both durable survival and effective palliation. An adequate diagnostic and staging work-up includes high-quality cross-sectional imaging; however, pathologic confirmation is not required prior to resection or initiation of a liver transplant trimodal treatment protocol. The ideal treatment for suitable patients with resectable hilar malignancy is resection of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts, as well as resection of the involved ipsilateral liver. Preoperative biliary drainage is best achieved with percutaneous transhepatic approaches and may be indicated for patients with cholangitis, malnutrition or hepatic insufficiency. Portal vein embolization is a safe and effective strategy for increasing the future liver remnant (FLR) and is particularly useful for patients with an FLR of hilar cholangiocarcinoma should be evaluated for a standard trimodal protocol incorporating external beam and endoluminal radiation therapy, systemic chemotherapy and liver transplantation. Post-resection chemoradiation should be offered to patients who show high-risk features on surgical pathology. Chemoradiation is also recommended for patients with locally advanced, unresectable hilar cancers. For patients with locally recurrent or metastatic hilar cholangiocarcinoma, first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin is recommended based on multiple Phase II trials and a large randomized controlled trial including a heterogeneous population of patients with biliary cancers. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  2. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  3. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  4. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  5. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

  6. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

  7. A law for nuclear experts only

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.

    1980-01-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

  8. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  9. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  10. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  11. An Expert System for Designing Fire Prescriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Reinhardt

    1987-01-01

    Managers use prescribed fire to accomplish a variety of resource objectives. The knowledge needed to design successful prescriptions is both quantitative and qualitative. Some of it is available through publications and computer programs, but much of the knowledge of expert practitioners has never been collected or published. An expert system being developed at the,...

  12. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, M.; Beigy, H.; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  13. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, Mahmood; Beigy, Hamid; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  14. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  15. Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Gary R.

    1995-01-01

    Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

  16. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  17. Expert system technology for the military

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

  18. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

  19. Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appazov, Artur

    The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

  20. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  1. A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

    2018-02-01

    The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

  2. Developments in REDES: The Rocket Engine Design Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidian, Kenneth O.

    1990-01-01

    The Rocket Engine Design Expert System (REDES) was developed at NASA-Lewis to collect, automate, and perpetuate the existing expertise of performing a comprehensive rocket engine analysis and design. Currently, REDES uses the rigorous JANNAF methodology to analyze the performance of the thrust chamber and perform computational studies of liquid rocket engine problems. The following computer codes were included in REDES: a gas properties program named GASP; a nozzle design program named RAO; a regenerative cooling channel performance evaluation code named RTE; and the JANNAF standard liquid rocket engine performance prediction code TDK (including performance evaluation modules ODE, ODK, TDE, TDK, and BLM). Computational analyses are being conducted by REDES to provide solutions to liquid rocket engine thrust chamber problems. REDES was built in the Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) expert system shell and runs on a Sun 4/110 computer.

  3. Expert system for assisting the repair operations on the control racks of the control rods assembly in a 900 MW PWR type reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnier, B.; Doutre, J.L.; Franco, A.

    1990-01-01

    The expert system presented was developed for assisting the repair operations on the control equipment of the control rod assembly in a PWR type reactor. The expert system allows the representation of expert knowledge and diagnostic reasoning. The objective of the expert system is to achieve the most precise diagnostic and localizing of the breakdown elements, by processing the data acquired during breakdown. The development steps, the structure and the applications of the expert system are summarized. The expert system operates in an IBM PC equipped with a AMAIA 8 Mo card. A time schedule of 18 months is predicted [fr

  4. Validity and validation of expert (Q)SAR systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulzebos, E; Sijm, D; Traas, T; Posthumus, R; Maslankiewicz, L

    2005-08-01

    At a recent workshop in Setubal (Portugal) principles were drafted to assess the suitability of (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ((Q)SARs) for assessing the hazards and risks of chemicals. In the present study we applied some of the Setubal principles to test the validity of three (Q)SAR expert systems and validate the results. These principles include a mechanistic basis, the availability of a training set and validation. ECOSAR, BIOWIN and DEREK for Windows have a mechanistic or empirical basis. ECOSAR has a training set for each QSAR. For half of the structural fragments the number of chemicals in the training set is >4. Based on structural fragments and log Kow, ECOSAR uses linear regression to predict ecotoxicity. Validating ECOSAR for three 'valid' classes results in predictivity of > or = 64%. BIOWIN uses (non-)linear regressions to predict the probability of biodegradability based on fragments and molecular weight. It has a large training set and predicts non-ready biodegradability well. DEREK for Windows predictions are supported by a mechanistic rationale and literature references. The structural alerts in this program have been developed with a training set of positive and negative toxicity data. However, to support the prediction only a limited number of chemicals in the training set is presented to the user. DEREK for Windows predicts effects by 'if-then' reasoning. The program predicts best for mutagenicity and carcinogenicity. Each structural fragment in ECOSAR and DEREK for Windows needs to be evaluated and validated separately.

  5. How is intensive care reimbursed?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bittner, Martin-Immanuel; Donnelly, Maria; van Zanten, Arthur Rh

    2013-01-01

    Reimbursement schemes in intensive care are more complex than in other areas of healthcare, due to special procedures and high care needs. Knowledge regarding the principles of functioning in other countries can lead to increased understanding and awareness of potential for improvement. This can...... be achieved through mutual exchange of solutions found in other countries. In this review, experts from eight European countries explain their respective intensive care unit reimbursement schemes. Important conclusions include the apparent differences in the countries' reimbursement schemes---despite all...... of them originating from a DRG system, the high degree of complexity found, and the difficulties faced in several countries when collecting the data for this collaborative work. This review has been designed to help the intensivist clinician and researcher to understanding neighbouring countries...

  6. Expert system aids transport regulation users

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

  7. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  8. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  9. Intensity modulated conformal radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, Georges; Moty-Monnereau, Celine; Meyer, Aurelia; David, Pauline; Pages, Frederique; Muller, Felix; Lee-Robin, Sun Hae; David, Denis Jean

    2006-12-01

    This publication reports the assessment of intensity-modulated conformal radiotherapy (IMCR). This assessment is based on a literature survey which focussed on indications, efficiency and safety on the short term, on the risk of radio-induced cancer on the long term, on the role in the therapeutic strategy, on the conditions of execution, on the impact on morbidity-mortality and life quality, on the impact on the health system and on public health policies and program. This assessment is also based on the opinion of a group of experts regarding the technical benefit of IMCR, its indications depending on the cancer type, safety in terms of radio-induced cancers, and conditions of execution. Before this assessment, the report thus indicates indications for which the use of IMCR can be considered as sufficient or not determined. It also proposes a technical description of IMCR and helical tomo-therapy, discusses the use of this technique for various pathologies or tumours, analyses the present situation of care in France, and comments the identification of this technique in foreign classifications

  10. Intensive Intervention Practice Guide: School-Based Functional Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, Brittany; Pokorski, Elizabeth A.; Kumm, Skip; Sterrett, Brittany I.

    2017-01-01

    The National Center for Leadership in Intensive Intervention (NCLII), a consortium funded by the Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP), prepares special education leaders to become experts in research on intensive intervention for students with disabilities who have persistent and severe academic (e.g., reading and math) and behavioral…

  11. Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunand, R.

    1989-01-01

    Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

  12. Expert systems for assisting in design reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Johnson, W.J.; Weber, N.; Naser, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses Sargent and Lundy's (S and L's) use of expert system technologies to computerize the procedures used for engineering design reviews. This paper discusses expert systems and the advantages that result from using them to computerize the decision-making process. This paper also discusses the design review expert systems that S and L has developed to perform fire protection and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) design reviews, and is currently developing for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to perform 10 CFR 50.59 safety reviews

  13. Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decrop, G.

    1993-01-01

    In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

  14. An expert system for dispersion model interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1988-10-01

    A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  15. Computers start to think with expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-03-21

    A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

  16. Does the intensity of diffuse thyroid gland uptake on F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography scan predict the severity of hypothyroidism? Correlation between maximal standardized uptake value and serum thyroid stimulating hormone levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pruthi, Ankur; Choudhury, Partha Sarathi; Gupta, Manoj; Taywade, Sameer

    2015-01-01

    F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (F-18 FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scan and hypothyroidism. The aim was to determine whether the intensity of diffuse thyroid gland uptake on F-18 FDG PET/CT scans predicts the severity of hypothyroidism. A retrospective analysis of 3868 patients who underwent F-18 FDG PET/CT scans, between October 2012 and June 2013 in our institution for various oncological indications was done. Out of them, 106 (2.7%) patients (79 females, 27 males) presented with bilateral diffuse thyroid gland uptake as an incidental finding. These patients were investigated retrospectively and various parameters such as age, sex, primary cancer site, maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), results of thyroid function tests (TFTs) and fine-needle aspiration cytology results were noted. The SUVmax values were correlated with serum thyroid stimulating hormone (S. TSH) levels using Pearson's correlation analysis. Pearson's correlation analysis. Clinical information and TFT (serum FT3, FT4 and TSH levels) results were available for 31 of the 106 patients (27 females, 4 males; mean age 51.5 years). Twenty-six out of 31 patients (84%) were having abnormal TFTs with abnormal TSH levels in 24/31 patients (mean S. TSH: 22.35 μIU/ml, median: 7.37 μIU/ml, range: 0.074-211 μIU/ml). Among 7 patients with normal TSH levels, 2 patients demonstrated low FT3 and FT4 levels. No significant correlation was found between maximum standardized uptake value and TSH levels (r = 0.115, P > 0.05). Incidentally detected diffuse thyroid gland uptake on F-18 FDG PET/CT scan was usually associated with hypothyroidism probably caused by autoimmune thyroiditis. Patients should be investigated promptly irrespective of the intensity of FDG uptake with TFTs to initiate replacement therapy and a USG examination to look for any suspicious nodules

  17. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Dobrinić, Damir; Dvorski, Stjepan; Bosilj, Neven

    2008-01-01

    Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and...

  19. Expert systems for structure elucidation of organic molecules by spectral methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elyashberg, Mikhail E

    1999-01-01

    The state-of-the-art of the investigations aimed at creating expert systems for establishing the structure of organic molecules from IR, 1 H and 13 C NMR spectra is analysed. Computer methods used for identification of molecular fragments, generation of their structure and spectra prediction are considered. Principles of the creation of modern expert systems and general strategy of solving structural problems are discussed. The bibliography includes 174 references.

  20. Measuring Physical Activity Intensity

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Compartir For more help with what counts as aerobic activity, watch this video: Windows Media Player, 4: ... ways to understand and measure the intensity of aerobic activity: relative intensity and absolute intensity. Relative Intensity ...

  1. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  2. National Cyber Expert Addresses ELP Class

    OpenAIRE

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security

    2012-01-01

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security, PRESS RELEASES Governments, businesses and educational institutions should be making cybersecurity a top priority, a leading expert told a class of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Executive Leaders Program. Brian...

  3. A fuzzy expert system based on relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

    1986-01-01

    The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

  4. Implicit Communication in Novice and Expert Teams

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Swain, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    ... (military, sporting or business teams). This suggests that expert teams may be utilising shared mental models of both the roles of their teammates and how they should be working together in a group situation...

  5. Learning from the Experts: Gaining Insights into Best Practice during the Acquisition of Three Novel Motor Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Nicola J.; Edwards, Christopher; Luttin, Shaun; Bowcock, Alison

    2011-01-01

    The amount and quality of practice predicts expertise, yet optimal conditions of practice have primarily been explored with novice learners. Ten expert musicians and ten novices practiced disc-throwing skills under self-regulated conditions. A third novice group practiced with the same schedule as the music experts (yoked). The groups did not…

  6. Expert systems to assist plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Yoshihiro; Mori, Nobuyuki; Wada, Norio

    1985-01-01

    Large-scale real-time process control systems, such as those for electric power dispatching, large thermal and nuclear power stations, steel mill plants and manufacturing automation systems, need expert systems to assist operator's decision. The expert systems newly developed to fulfill the requirement are founded on OKBS (object oriented knowledge based system). OKBS provides various object types: fuzzy logic type, production rule type, frame type, state transition type, abstract data type and input/output transformation type. (author)

  7. Jess, the Java expert system shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman-Hill, E.J.

    1997-11-01

    This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

  8. An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

  9. SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

    1988-02-01

    Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

  10. Tapping into past design experiences : Knowledge sharing and creation during novice-expert design consultations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deken, F.; Kleinsmann, M.S.; Aurisicchio, M.; Lauche, K.; Bracewell, R.

    2011-01-01

    Designing is a knowledge-intensive activity. For novice design engineers, an important means of acquiring knowledge is to consult experienced colleagues. We observed novice–expert consultations as part of three engineering projects in a large aerospace company. Seven meetings were analysed in detail

  11. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  12. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

  13. Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

  14. Real-time expert systems and deep knowledge models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felkel, L.

    1990-01-01

    To guide operators in normal and disturbed plant conditions expert systems are feasible. These, however, must be on-line and real-time systems. The knowledge contained in such a system cannot be represented in a 'classical' role-based manner. The paper describes problems and solutions with regard to process reference models as these are important in order to provide so-called deep-knowledge for the operators. The system described is being implemented and is meant to support both diagnosis and prediction

  15. An expert system for PWR core operation management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ida, Toshio; Masuda, Masahiro; Nishioka, Hiromasa

    1988-01-01

    Planning for restartup after planned or unplanned reactor shutdown and load-follow operations is an important task in the core operation management of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These planning problems have been solved by planning experts using their expertise and the computational prediction of core behavior. Therefore, the quality of the plan and the time consumed in the planning depend heavily on the skillfulness of the planning experts. A knowledge engineering approach has been recently considered as a promising means to solve such complicated planning problems. Many knowledge-based systems have been developed so far, and some of them have already been applied because of their effectiveness. The expert system REPLEX has been developed to aid core management engineers in making a successful plan for the restartup or the load-follow operation of PWRs within a shorter time. It can maintain planning tasks at a high-quality level independent of the skillfulness of core management engineers and enhance the efficiency of management. REPLEX has an explanation function that helps user understanding of plans. It could be a useful took, therefore, for the training of core management engineers.

  16. Development of an expert system for signal validation: Topical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qualls, A.L.; Uhrig, R.E.; Upadhyaya, B.R.

    1988-07-01

    A signal validation and sensor information expert system is developed and applied to nuclear power plant subsystems. The expert system interactively provides the user with a list of sensors used to monitor a subsystem of a power plant and answers the user's questions about the characteristics of those sensors. The expert system performs an evaluation of the present output characteristics of an instrument channel. The evaluation is fully automated and is designed to mimic an operator's approach to signal validation. The evaluation is designed to detect three types of possible sensor anomalies: (1) incorrect average output, (2) improper noise level,and (3) incorrect response to a system perturbation. There are two tests used to detect each possible anomalous condition. One test is a comparison of the specified sensor characteristic against the same characteristic of its redundant sensors. The second test is a prediction of the sensor's expected behavior and comparison with its observed behavior. The evaluation was tested using operational data from twelve sensors used to monitor level, pressure, primary and secondary coolant flow rates, and hot and cold leg temperatures of a steam generator in a commercial nuclear power plant. The results of the testing demonstrated successfully that the evaluation detected the three possible anomalies, and was able to handle conflicting information using the comparison among redundant sensors and the system specific test used to detect the anomalies

  17. Using the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorm, Anthony F

    2015-10-01

    The article gives an introductory overview of the use of the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research. It explains the rationale for using the method, examines the range of uses to which it has been put in mental health research, and describes the stages of carrying out a Delphi study using examples from the literature. To ascertain the range of uses, a systematic search was carried out in PubMed. The article also examines the implications of 'wisdom of crowds' research for how to conduct Delphi studies. The Delphi method is a systematic way of determining expert consensus that is useful for answering questions that are not amenable to experimental and epidemiological methods. The validity of the approach is supported by 'wisdom of crowds' research showing that groups can make good judgements under certain conditions. In mental health research, the Delphi method has been used for making estimations where there is incomplete evidence (e.g. What is the global prevalence of dementia?), making predictions (e.g. What types of interactions with a person who is suicidal will reduce their chance of suicide?), determining collective values (e.g. What areas of research should be given greatest priority?) and defining foundational concepts (e.g. How should we define 'relapse'?). A range of experts have been used in Delphi research, including clinicians, researchers, consumers and caregivers. The Delphi method has a wide range of potential uses in mental health research. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  18. An expert system for PWR core operation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida, Toshio; Masuda, Masahiro; Nishioka, Hiromasa.

    1988-01-01

    Planning for restartup after planned or unplanned reactor shutdown and load-follow operations is an important task in the core operation management of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These planning problems have been solved by planning experts using their expertise and the computational prediction of core behavior. Therefore, the quality of the plan and the time consumed in the planning depend heavily on the skillfulness of the planning experts. A knowledge engineering approach has been recently considered as a promising means to solve such complicated planning problems. Many knowledge-based systems have been developed so far, and some of them have already been applied because of their effectiveness. The expert system REPLEX has been developed to aid core management engineers in making a successful plan for the restartup or the load-follow operation of PWRs within a shorter time. It can maintain planning tasks at a high-quality level independent of the skillfulness of core management engineers and enhance the efficiency of management. REPLEX has an explanation function that helps user understanding of plans. It could be a useful took, therefore, for the training of core management engineers

  19. Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

    2003-01-01

    Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

  20. Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

  1. Auditory memory function in expert chess players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.

  2. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  3. System and method for creating expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

  4. Methodology toward second generation expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormoy, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

  5. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  6. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  7. Recruiting experts for technical assistance rogramme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-01-01

    One of the objectives of the IAEA is the provision of technical assistance to its Member States to carry out their peaceful nuclear activities more efficiently and safely. This involves looking for and supplying experts, equipment and fellowships. Since 1958 the Agency has provided the services of more than 1800 experts valued at $11.5 million, 4300 fellowships valued at $14.3 million, and equipment worth $10.8 million. The efficiency of the programme can only be increased by a more prompt consideration of proposals forwarded by the Agency, and the continuing co-operation from national Governments and private institutions. The IAEA recruits an average of 200 experts a year to implement its Regular Technical Assistance Programme. These projects are financed by voluntary contributions from Member States, and by the United Nations Development Programme for those projects for which the IAEA is the executing agency

  8. Meanings & motives. Experts debating tobacco addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M

    2008-10-01

    Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately.

  9. Expert system aided operator's mental activities training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.; Gese, A.

    1994-01-01

    The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs

  10. An expert system in medical diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raboanary, R.; Raoelina Andriambololona; Soffer, J.; Raboanary, J.

    2001-01-01

    Health problem is still a crucial one in some countries. It is so important that it becomes a major handicap in economic and social development. In order to solve this problem, we have conceived an expert system that we called MITSABO, which means TO HEAL, to help the physicians to diagnose tropical diseases. It is clear that by extending the data base and the knowledge base, we can extend the application of the software to more general areas. In our expert system, we used the concept of 'self organization' of neural network based on the determination of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors associated to the correlation matrix XX t . The projection of the data on the two first eigenvectors gives a classification of the diseases which is used to get a first approach in the diagnosis of the patient. This diagnosis is improved by using an expert system which is built from the knowledge base.

  11. An expert system approach for safety diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Sun, B.K.H.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system was developed with the intent to provide real-time information about an accident to an operator who is in the process of diagnosing and bringing that accident under control. Explicit use was made of probabilistic risk analysis techniques and plant accident response information in constructing this system. The expert system developed contains 70 logic rules and provides contextual messages during simulated accident sequences and logic sequence information on the entire sequence in graphical form for accident diagnosis. The present analysis focuses on integrated control system-related transients with Babcock and Wilcox-type reactors. While the system developed here is limited in extent and was built for a composite reactor, it demonstrates that an expert system may enhance the operator's capability in the control room

  12. Advisory expert system for test rig operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zielczynski, P.

    1994-01-01

    The advisory expert system MAESTRO (Modular Advisory Expert System for Test Rig Operator) has been designed to guide the operator of large experimental installation during start-up, steady state and shut down. The installation is located in the research reactor MARIA in the Institute of Atomic Energy in Swierk, Poland. The system acquires and analyses on line signals from installation and performs two tasks in real time: leading the operator and monitoring of the installation (including signal validation). Systems tasks, architecture and knowledge representation concepts are described. The system is based on expert systems techniques what makes in phases of continuous change of process parameters and it has been achieved by special knowledge representation allowing its dynamical modification. (author). 147 refs, 42 figs, 5 tab

  13. An expert system for diesel generator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, D.C.; Read, J.W.; Kaplan, S.; Liming, J.K.; Brosee, N.M.; Hanley, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    The idea of developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems to capture the knowledge of human experts is receiving much attention these days. The idea is even more attractive when important expertise resides within a single individual, especially one who is nearing retirement and who has not otherwise recorded or passed along his important knowledge and thought processes. The diesel generators at Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station have performed exceptionally well, primarily due to the care and attention of one man. Therefore, the authors are constructing an expert system for the diagnosis of diesel generator problems at Pilgrim. This paper includes a description of the expert system design and operation, examples from the knowledge base, and sample diagnoses, so the reader can observe the process in action

  14. Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

    2006-11-01

    An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

  15. Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

  16. Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

  17. Temporal logics and real time expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, J A

    1996-10-01

    This paper introduces temporal logics. Due to the eternal compromise between expressive adequacy and reasoning efficiency that must decided upon in any application, full (first order logic or modal logic based) temporal logics are frequently not suitable. This is especially true in real time expert systems, where a fixed (and usually small) response time must be guaranteed. One such expert system, Fagan's VM, is reviewed, and a delineation is given of how to formally describe and reason with time in medical protocols. It is shown that Petri net theory is a useful tool to check the correctness of formalised protocols.

  18. Distributed expert systems for nuclear reactor control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otaduy, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    A network of distributed expert systems is the heart of a prototype supervisory control architecture developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for an advanced multimodular reactor. Eight expert systems encode knowledge on signal acquisition, diagnostics, safeguards, and control strategies in a hybrid rule-based, multiprocessing and object-oriented distributed computing environment. An interactive simulation of a power block consisting of three reactors and one turbine provides a realistic, testbed for performance analysis of the integrated control system in real-time. Implementation details and representative reactor transients are discussed

  19. Expert System Software Assistant for Payload Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mark N.

    1997-01-01

    The broad objective of this expert system software based application was to demonstrate the enhancements and cost savings that can be achieved through expert system software utilization in a spacecraft ground control center. Spacelab provided a valuable proving ground for this advanced software technology; a technology that will be exploited and expanded for future ISS operations. Our specific focus was on demonstrating payload cadre command and control efficiency improvements through the use of "smart" software which monitors flight telemetry, provides enhanced schematic-based data visualization, and performs advanced engineering data analysis.

  20. An expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRO's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  1. Expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRC's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  2. Oracle Hyperion Interactive Reporting 11 Expert Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Edward J

    2011-01-01

    This book is written in a simple, easy to understand format with screenshots, code samples, and step-by-step explanations that will guide you through the advanced techniques used by the experts. If you are an Oracle Hyperion Interactive reporting user or developer looking to become an expert in the product, then this book is for you. You will require a basic knowledge of Interactive Reporting, as this book starts with a brief overview and then dives into advanced techniques, functions, and best practices. Beginner users should consult The Business Analyst's Guide to Oracle Hyperion Interactive

  3. AN EXPERT SYSTEM USED IN DESIGN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüdayim BAŞAK

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, an expert system used in computer aided design has been developed. In the developed program, the features which are used in the models prepared by a feature based design program are evaluated by the expert system module and are used in part modeling after determining of their compatibilty according to the rules. This program, particulary for those who do not know or know very little manufacturing stages, accomplishes the duty of informing and directing them. The program developed warns the user for design mistakes made during modeling.

  4. EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NAN Anca-Petruţa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

  5. The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

    1991-01-01

    The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

  6. Subject Matter Expert Workshop to Identify Cybersecurity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report In recognition of the growing need to better address cyber risk and cyber management, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) held a Subject Matter Expert Workshop to Identify Cybersecurity Research Gaps and Needs of the Nation’s Water and Wastewater Systems Sector on March 30th and 31st, 2016, at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, D.C. The workshop was designed to create a forum for subject matter experts (SMEs) to exchange ideas and address important cybersecurity challenges facing the water sector.

  7. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  8. Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

  9. Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

    2014-01-01

    to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

  10. Measuring Physical Activity Intensity

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... 45 David, Age 65 Harold, Age 67 Data & Statistics Facts About Physical Activity Data, Trends and Maps ... relative intensity and absolute intensity. Relative Intensity The level of effort required by a person to do ...

  11. Expert and novice categorization of introductory physics problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Steven Frederick

    sets that discriminate experts from novices in a measurable way? We are describing a method to characterize problems along several dimensions, and then study the effectiveness of differently composed problem sets in differentiating experts from novices, using our analysis method. Both components of our study are based on an extensive experiment using a large problem set, which known physics experts and novices categorized according to the original experimental protocol. Both the size of the card set and the size of the sorter pool were larger than in comparable experiments. Based on our analysis method, we find that most of the variation in sorting outcome is not due to the sorter being an expert versus a novice, but rather due to an independent characteristic that we named "stacker" versus "spreader." The fact that the expert-novice distinction only accounts for a smaller amount of the variation may partly explain the frequent null-results when conducting these experiments. In order to study how the outcome depends on the original problem set, our problem set needed to be large so that we could determine how well experts and novices could be discriminated by considering both small subsets using a Monte Carlo approach and larger subsets using Simulated Annealing. This computationally intense study relied on our objective analysis method, as the large combinatorics did not allow for manual analysis of the outcomes from the subsets. We found that the number of questions required to accurately classify experts and novices could be surprisingly small so long as the problem set was carefully crafted to be composed of problems with particular pedagogical and contextual features. In order to discriminate experts from novices in a categorization task, it is important that the problem sets carefully consider three problem properties: The chapters that problems are in (the problems need to be from a wide spectrum of chapters to allow for the original "deep structure

  12. Climate Prediction Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

  13. Experts and consensus in social science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martini, C.; Boumans, M.

    2014-01-01

    This book brings together the research of philosophers and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address, and, possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A

  14. Expert advisory services to other countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orstein, Roberto M.

    1998-01-01

    Argentina has provided expert services in the nuclear field to almost all the countries of Latin America and to many countries of other continents, in the framework of bilateral and multilateral cooperation agreements. A short history of these services is outlined and some statistical data are presented

  15. EXPERT SYSTEMS SHOW PROMISE FOR CUSTOMER INQUIRIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This article describes results of an agreement between the North Penn Water Authority in Lansdale, Pa., and the US Environmental Protection Agency, Drinking Water Research Division, Cincinnati, Ohio, to study use of expert systems technology in a water utility. The threeyear stud...

  16. Decisions, Decisions: A Schema for Expert Decisionmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stape, Christopher J.

    1999-01-01

    Presents a schema for expert decisionmaking that can be used as a performance support tool. The ringshaped schema can be used in two ways: (1) beginning at the center with problemsetting and working outward to other supporting factors, or (2) skimming over the factors located in the outer ring to find a topic related to information about the…

  17. Expert finder systems – design and use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykke, Marianne; Weidel, Eva

    2011-01-01

    The survey aimed at investigating how companies deal with the challenge of sharing of employees’ expert knowledge. We wanted to find out which tools are being used to register, communicate and search employees as a knowledge resource. Specifically, we wanted to know how service organizations use ...

  18. The responsibility of the radiation protection expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varescon, M.

    2008-01-01

    After having recalled the two main different types of responsibility in the French law system (civil liability and criminal responsibility), and how criminal law has been gradually introduced in companies, the author analyzes and describes how the radiation protection expert's responsibility is tightly related to that of his employer, and how both can be committed on a disciplinary and criminal level

  19. Fuzzy Expert System to Characterize Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hecke, T.

    2011-01-01

    Students wanting to succeed in higher education are required to adopt an adequate learning approach. By analyzing individual learning characteristics, teachers can give personal advice to help students identify their learning success factors. An expert system based on fuzzy logic can provide economically viable solutions to help students identify…

  20. Laserjet Printer Troubleshooting Expert System | Adesola | West ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper model an expert system called LAPTEX for troubleshooting LaserJet printers' faults. Today, with the innumerable advances in information technologies, computerizing printer's fault troubleshooting and identifying faults is far becoming so vital. Also, printers' fault detection is a complicated process that requires a ...