Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

2013-04-01

In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

Evaluating extreme flood characteristics of small mountainous basins of the Black Sea coastal area, Northern Caucasus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. S. Lebedeva

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The probability of heavy rains and river floods is expected to increase with time in the Northern Caucasus region. Densely populated areas in the valleys of small mountainous watersheds already frequently suffer from catastrophic peak floods caused by intense rains at higher elevations. This study aimed at assessing the flood characteristics of several small basins in the piedmont area of the Caucasus Mountains adjacent to the Black Sea coast including ungauged Cemes River in the Novorossiysk city. The Deterministic-Stochastic Modelling System which consists of hydrological model Hydrograph and stochastic weather generator was applied to evaluate extreme rainfall and runoff characteristics of 1% exceedance probability. Rainfall intensity is shown to play more significant role than its depth in formation of extreme flows within the studied region.

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I.D.; Nicholls, R.J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.B.A.

2017-01-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

2016-12-06

In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

2015-04-01

The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

2013-04-01

Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of

Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

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E. Bilyay

2011-03-01

Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/H_s ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of H_s/η_rms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f^–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f^{–4, –5}. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter S_max and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

Analysis of extreme sea level along the east coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Sundar, D.; Blackman, D.

the r-largest annual maximum method, the joint probability method (JPM) as well as the revised joint probability method (RJPM) was performed to estimate the return periods of extreme sea level. JPM gave an underestimate of levels for long return periods...

Extreme Low Light Requirement for Algae Growth Underneath Sea Ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hancke, Kasper; Lund-Hansen, Lars C.; Lamare, Maxim L.

2018-01-01

Microalgae colonizing the underside of sea ice in spring are a key component of the Arctic foodweb as they drive early primary production and transport of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean interior. Onset of the spring bloom of ice algae is typically limited by the availability of light......, and the current consensus is that a few tens-of-centimeters of snow is enough to prevent sufficient solar radiation to reach underneath the sea ice. We challenge this consensus, and investigated the onset and the light requirement of an ice algae spring bloom, and the importance of snow optical properties...... for light penetration. Colonization by ice algae began in May under >1 m of first-year sea ice with approximate to 1 m thick snow cover on top, in NE Greenland. The initial growth of ice algae began at extremely low irradiance (...

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

2008-01-01

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

2015-07-01

Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua

2018-04-01

The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

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Panagiota Galiatsatou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-03-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

2013-01-01

The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... prograding spit on the south-eastern Baltic shores of Zealand, Denmark. The modern, sandy beach at this location consists of a beachface with a shallow incipient berm, a mature berm, and a dune-covered beach ridge. It borders a beach-ridge plain to the west, where more than 20 N–S oriented beach ridges...... and swales are present. Measured water-level data from 1991 to 2012 and topographical observations, carried out during fair weather period and during a storm event, provided the basis for a conceptual model exhibiting berm formation and transformation into the local beach-ridge system. The character...

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

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Ron Karl Hoeke

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR, particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

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F. Budillon

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

2016-03-01

This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

2014-01-01

As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

Understanding the Role of Air-Sea Interaction on Extreme Rainfall in Aquaplanet and Earth-like CESM2

Science.gov (United States)

Benedict, J. J.; Clement, A. C.; Medeiros, B.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with anomalous, latitudinally dependent dynamical and convective weather systems. For example, plumes of excessive poleward water vapor transport and topographical effects drive extreme precipitation events in the midlatitudes, while intense tropical precipitation is associated with organized convective systems. In both cases, air-sea fluxes have the potential to contribute significantly to the moisture budget of these storms, but the roles of surface fluxes and upper-ocean processes and their impact on precipitation extremes have yet to be explored in sufficient detail. To examine such mechanisms, we implement a climate model hierarchy that encompasses a spectrum of ocean models, from prescribed-SST to fully dynamic, as well as both aquaplanet and Earth-like lower boundary types within version 2 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). Using the CESM2 hierarchy and comparing to observations, we identify key moisture processes and related air-sea interactions that drive extreme precipitation events across different latitudes in Earth-like models and then generalize the analyses in aquaplanet configurations to highlight the most salient features. The analyses are applied to both present-day and global warming conditions to investigate how these fundamental mechanisms might change extreme precipitation events in the future climate.

Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence - a point process perspective on coastal flood damage

Science.gov (United States)

Boettle, M.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.

2016-02-01

In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

The study of the hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea during the XX-XXI centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Yaitskaya, Natalia

2016-04-01

The Caspian Sea - the unique largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth. Significant periodic sea level fluctuations are a typical feature of the sea. In the XIX-XX centuries a number of comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea was carried out. The results are published in the papers, monographs and climatic atlases. But a number of fundamental questions about the features of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea is still open: 1. How does the water circulation change during the level variations? 2. What is the effect of heterogeneity of evaporation from the water surface on the formation of the flow field in the conditions of long-term level changes? 3. How does the water salinity regime change depending on the sea level position, water circulation, river flow and different climatic influences? 4. What is the effect of extreme events (multi-hazards) (ice, storms, destruction of the coasts) on coastal infrastructure? In 2016, the project aims to study hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Within this project all of the above problems will be solved. Geographic information system "Caspian Sea" for the storage and data processing, including a database of primary oceanographic information for the period of instrumental observations (1897-2013), cartographic database (1921-2011) and tools for multidimensional analysis of spatio-temporal information is the basis of the study. The scheme of interconnected hydrodynamic models (Caspian Sea MODel - Ocean Model - Wind wave model) was developed. The important factors are taken into account in the structure of the models: long-term and seasonal dynamics of the sea waves parameters, new long-term values of evaporation from the shallow waters areas of the Caspian Sea, water circulation. Schemes of general seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea and the Northern Caspian at different positions of the sea level in XX-XXI centuries using

Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias

Sexual Dysfunction Management and Expectations Assessment in Multiple Sclerosis-Female (SEA-MS-F): creation and validation of a specific questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Bisseriex, Hélène; Guinet-Lacoste, Amandine; Chevret-Méasson, Marie; Costa, Pierre; Sheikh Ismael, Samer; Rousseau, Alexandra; Amarenco, Gerard

2014-12-01

Until now, no questionnaire has been developed to study specific expectations concerning sexual dysfunction management and the availability of information on sexuality in the female population affected by multiple sclerosis (MS). Understanding and meeting the patient's expectations is an issue of considerable importance in the evaluation of medical care. We present the development and validation of a specific questionnaire designed for women with MS in order to assess their expectations in terms of sexual dysfunction management: the SEA-MS-F (Sexual Dysfunction Management and Expectations Assessment in Multiple Sclerosis-Female). This questionnaire was created and validated by an expert panel, using the Delphi method. The psychometric evaluation was obtained with a sample of 40 female MS patients. Cronbach's alpha index and principal component analysis were used to measure the questionnaire's internal consistency. A consensus on the questionnaire was reached with the Delphi method. The SEA-MS-F is fully compliant with the criteria for psychometric validation among female MS patients, and its internal consistency is excellent (Cronbach's alpha 0.948). The SEA-MS-F appears to be a useful tool that could be used either in routine medical situations or in prospective studies of MS in order to ascertain women's expectations concerning the management of their sexual dysfunction. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

2012-01-01

Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

2017-04-01

Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2013-12-01

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sterl

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

Best Practice Life Expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medford, Anthony

2017-01-01

been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

Extreme Longevity in Proteinaceous Deep-Sea Corals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Fallon, S J; Mucciarone, D A

2009-02-09

Deep-sea corals are found on hard substrates on seamounts and continental margins world-wide at depths of 300 to {approx}3000 meters. Deep-sea coral communities are hotspots of deep ocean biomass and biodiversity, providing critical habitat for fish and invertebrates. Newly applied radiocarbon age date from the deep water proteinaceous corals Gerardia sp. and Leiopathes glaberrima show that radial growth rates are as low as 4 to 35 {micro}m yr{sup -1} and that individual colony longevities are on the order of thousands of years. The management and conservation of deep sea coral communities is challenged by their commercial harvest for the jewelry trade and damage caused by deep water fishing practices. In light of their unusual longevity, a better understanding of deep sea coral ecology and their interrelationships with associated benthic communities is needed to inform coherent international conservation strategies for these important deep-sea ecosystems.

Biodiversity patterns of plankton assemblages at the extremes of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Pearman, John K.

2016-01-07

The diversity of microbial plankton has received limited attention in the main basin of the Red Sea. This study investigates changes in the community composition and structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes at the extremes of the Red Sea along cross-shelf gradients and between the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum. Using molecular methods to target both the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, it was observed that the dominant prokaryotic classes were Acidimicrobiia, Alphaproteobacteria and Cyanobacteria, regardless of the region and depth. The eukaryotes Syndiniophyceae and Dinophyceae between them dominated in the north, with Bacillariophyceae and Mamiellophyceae more prominent in the southern region. Significant differences were observed for prokaryotes and eukaryotes for region, depth and distance from shore. Similarly, it was noticed that communities became less similar with increasing distance from the shore. Canonical correspondence analysis at the class level showed that Mamiellophyceae and Bacillariophyceae correlated with increased nutrients and chlorophyll a found in the southern region, which is influenced by the input of Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water.

Biodiversity patterns of plankton assemblages at the extremes of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Pearman, John K.; Kurten, Saskia; Yellepeddi, Sarma B.; Jones, Burton; Carvalho, Susana

2016-01-01

The diversity of microbial plankton has received limited attention in the main basin of the Red Sea. This study investigates changes in the community composition and structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes at the extremes of the Red Sea along cross-shelf gradients and between the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum. Using molecular methods to target both the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, it was observed that the dominant prokaryotic classes were Acidimicrobiia, Alphaproteobacteria and Cyanobacteria, regardless of the region and depth. The eukaryotes Syndiniophyceae and Dinophyceae between them dominated in the north, with Bacillariophyceae and Mamiellophyceae more prominent in the southern region. Significant differences were observed for prokaryotes and eukaryotes for region, depth and distance from shore. Similarly, it was noticed that communities became less similar with increasing distance from the shore. Canonical correspondence analysis at the class level showed that Mamiellophyceae and Bacillariophyceae correlated with increased nutrients and chlorophyll a found in the southern region, which is influenced by the input of Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

2017-05-18

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

Daily sea level prediction at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector machine

Science.gov (United States)

Imani, Moslem; Kao, Huan-Chin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2018-02-01

The analysis and the prediction of sea level fluctuations are core requirements of marine meteorology and operational oceanography. Estimates of sea level with hours-to-days warning times are especially important for low-lying regions and coastal zone management. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the applicability and capability of extreme learning machine (ELM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) models for predicting sea level variations and compare their performances with powerful machine learning methods, namely, support vector machine (SVM) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The input dataset from the period of January 2004 to May 2011 used in the study was obtained from the Dongshi tide gauge station in Chiayi, Taiwan. Results showed that the ELM and RVM models outperformed the other methods. The performance of the RVM approach was superior in predicting the daily sea level time series given the minimum root mean square error of 34.73 mm and the maximum determination coefficient of 0.93 (R2) during the testing periods. Furthermore, the obtained results were in close agreement with the original tide-gauge data, which indicates that RVM approach is a promising alternative method for time series prediction and could be successfully used for daily sea level forecasts.

Sea level change

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

Taxonomic analysis of extremely halophilic archaea isolated from 56-years-old dead sea brine samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Arahal, D R; Gutiérrez, M C; Volcani, B E; Ventosa, A

2000-10-01

A taxonomic study comprising both phenotypic and genotypic characterization, has been carried out on a total of 158 extremely halophilic aerobic archaeal strains. These strains were isolated from enrichments prepared from Dead Sea water samples dating from 1936 that were collected by B. E. Volcani for the demonstration of microbial life in the Dead Sea. The isolates were examined for 126 morphological, physiological, biochemical and nutritional tests. Numerical analysis of the data, by using the S(J) coefficient and UPGMA clustering method, showed that the isolates clustered into six phenons. Twenty-two out of the 158 strains used in this study were characterized previously (ARAHAL et al., 1996) and were placed into five phenotypic groups. The genotypic study included both the determination of the guanineplus-cytosine content of the DNA and DNA-DNA hybridization studies. For this purpose, representative strains from the six phenons were chosen. These groups were found to represent some members of three different genera - Haloarcula (phenons A, B, and C), Haloferax (phenons D and E) and Halobacterium (phenon F) - of the family Halobacteriaceae, some of them never reported to occur in the Dead Sea, such as Haloarcula hispanica, while Haloferax volcanii (phenons D and E) was described in the Dead Sea by studies carried out several decades later than Volcani's work.

XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

Science.gov (United States)

Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

2012-04-01

generates the high waves in the S-E Black sea. The climate projections show that the frequency of such atmospheric pattern will not principally increase. The recent probability of the extreme wave height (exceeding 8 to10 m) in the S-W Black sea (~1 occurrence per 10 years) will not be much worse in XXI century. Similar conclusion is true for the storm surges along the Bulgarian coastline. Expected sea level rise in the Black sea basin for XXI century due to regional climate changes is about 2 mm per year (±50%). However, some Black sea subregions (such as Odessa and Varna bay) are characterized by fivefold sea level rise because of the local land subsidence. So, this geomorphologic effect is the most dangerous local consequence for the sustainable development and management of the coastal zone in such subregions. This study was supported by EC project "THESEUS".

Biodiversity patterns of plankton assemblages at the extremes of the Red Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearman, J K; Kürten, S; Sarma, Y V B; Jones, B H; Carvalho, S

2016-03-01

The diversity of microbial plankton has received limited attention in the main basin of the Red Sea. This study investigates changes in the community composition and structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes at the extremes of the Red Sea along cross-shelf gradients and between the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum. Using molecular methods to target both the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, it was observed that the dominant prokaryotic classes were Acidimicrobiia, Alphaproteobacteria and Cyanobacteria, regardless of the region and depth. The eukaryotes Syndiniophyceae and Dinophyceae between them dominated in the north, with Bacillariophyceae and Mamiellophyceae more prominent in the southern region. Significant differences were observed for prokaryotes and eukaryotes for region, depth and distance from shore. Similarly, it was noticed that communities became less similar with increasing distance from the shore. Canonical correspondence analysis at the class level showed that Mamiellophyceae and Bacillariophyceae correlated with increased nutrients and chlorophyll a found in the southern region, which is influenced by the input of Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

Sea Hare Aplysia punctata (Mollusca: Gastropoda) Can Maintain Shell Calcification under Extreme Ocean Acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Nicholas; Dupont, Sam; Sigwart, Julia D

2016-10-01

Ocean acidification is expected to cause energetic constraints upon marine calcifying organisms such as molluscs and echinoderms, because of the increased costs of building or maintaining shell material in lower pH. We examined metabolic rate, shell morphometry, and calcification in the sea hare Aplysia punctata under short-term exposure (19 days) to an extreme ocean acidification scenario (pH 7.3, ∼2800 μatm pCO 2 ), along with a group held in control conditions (pH 8.1, ∼344 μatm pCO 2 ). This gastropod and its congeners are broadly distributed and locally abundant grazers, and have an internal shell that protects the internal organs. Specimens were examined for metabolic rate via closed-chamber respirometry, followed by removal and examination of the shell under confocal microscopy. Staining using calcein determined the amount of new calcification that occurred over 6 days at the end of the acclimation period. The width of new, pre-calcified shell on the distal shell margin was also quantified as a proxy for overall shell growth. Aplysia punctata showed a 30% reduction in metabolic rate under low pH, but calcification was not affected. This species is apparently able to maintain calcification rate even under extreme low pH, and even when under the energetic constraints of lower metabolism. This finding adds to the evidence that calcification is a largely autonomous process of crystallization that occurs as long as suitable haeomocoel conditions are preserved. There was, however, evidence that the accretion of new, noncalcified shell material may have been reduced, which would lead to overall reduced shell growth under longer-term exposures to low pH independent of calcification. Our findings highlight that the chief impact of ocean acidification upon the ability of marine invertebrates to maintain their shell under low pH may be energetic constraints that hinder growth of supporting structure, rather than maintenance of calcification.

Critical Mechanisms for the Formation of Extreme Arctic Sea-Ice Extent in the Summers of 2007 and 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Xiquan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China); Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States); Zib, Benjamin J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States); Xi, Baike [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States); Stanfield, Ryan [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States); Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Zhang, Xiangdong [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Lin, B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Long, Charles N. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-08-29

A warming Arctic climate is undergoing significant e 21 nvironmental change, most evidenced by the reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent during the summer. In this study, we examine two extreme anomalies of September sea-ice extent in 2007 and 1996, and investigate the impacts of cloud fraction (CF), atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV), downwelling longwave flux (DLF), surface air temperature (SAT), pressure and winds on the sea-ice variation in 2007 and 1996 using both satellite-derived sea-ice products and MERRA reanalysis. The area of the Laptev, East Siberian and West Chukchi seas (70-90oN, 90-180oE) has experienced the largest variation in sea-ice extent from year-to-year and defined here as the Area Of Focus (AOF). The record low September sea-ice extent in 2007 was associated with positive anomalies 30 of CF, PWV, DLF, and SAT over the AOF. Persistent anti-cyclone positioned over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia induced easterly zonal and southerly meridional winds. In contrast, negative CF, PWV, DLF and SAT anomalies, as well as opposite wind patterns to those in 2007, characterized the 1996 high September sea-ice extent. Through this study, we hypothesize the following positive feedbacks of clouds, water vapor, radiation and atmospheric variables on the sea-ice retreat during the summer 2007. The record low sea-ice extent during the summer 2007 is initially triggered by the atmospheric circulation anomaly. The southerly winds across the Chukchi and East Siberian seas transport warm, moist air from the north Pacific, which is not only enhancing sea-ice melt across the AOF, but also increasing clouds. The positive cloud feedback results in higher SAT and more sea-ice melt. Therefore, 40 more water vapor could be evaporated from open seas and higher SAT to form more clouds, which will enhance positive cloud feedback. This enhanced positive cloud feedback will then further increase SAT and accelerate the sea-ice retreat during the

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

Science.gov (United States)

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Characteristics of cyclones causing extreme sea levels in the northern Baltic Sea** The study was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT20-11 and Grant ETF9134 and by the EU Regional Development Foundation, Environmental Conservation and Environmental Technology R&D Programme Project No. 3.2.0801.12-0044.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piia Post

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The basic parameters of extra-tropical cyclones in the northern Baltic are examined in relation to extreme sea level events at Estonian coastal stations between 1948 and 2010. The hypothesis that extreme sea level events might be caused not by one intense extra-tropical cyclone, as suggested by earlier researchers, but by the temporal clustering of cyclones in a certain trajectory corridor, is tested. More detailed analysis of atmospheric conditions at the time of the two most extreme cases support this concept: the sequence of 5 cyclones building up the extreme sea level within about 10 days was very similar in structure and periodicity.

Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...... surges. Presently the most important hazard is due to extreme precipitation. However, due to climate change impacts the future most important hazard is due to sea surges. The increase in probability of floods is substantial over a 70 year horizon and actions must be taken to decrease either the hazards...

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

Extreme Low Light Requirement for Algae Growth Underneath Sea Ice: A Case Study From Station Nord, NE Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Hancke, Kasper; Lund-Hansen, Lars C.; Lamare, Maxim L.; Højlund Pedersen, Stine; King, Martin D.; Andersen, Per; Sorrell, Brian K.

2018-02-01

Microalgae colonizing the underside of sea ice in spring are a key component of the Arctic foodweb as they drive early primary production and transport of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean interior. Onset of the spring bloom of ice algae is typically limited by the availability of light, and the current consensus is that a few tens-of-centimeters of snow is enough to prevent sufficient solar radiation to reach underneath the sea ice. We challenge this consensus, and investigated the onset and the light requirement of an ice algae spring bloom, and the importance of snow optical properties for light penetration. Colonization by ice algae began in May under >1 m of first-year sea ice with ˜1 m thick snow cover on top, in NE Greenland. The initial growth of ice algae began at extremely low irradiance (automated high-frequency temperature profiles. We propose that changes in snow optical properties, caused by temperature-driven snow metamorphosis, was the primary driver for allowing sufficient light to penetrate through the thick snow and initiate algae growth below the sea ice. This was supported by radiative-transfer modeling of light attenuation. Implications are an earlier productivity by ice algae in Arctic sea ice than recognized previously.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

2017-12-01

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

Science.gov (United States)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

2017-12-01

Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment of patent ductus arteriosus in extremely low birth weight infants?

Science.gov (United States)

Cordero, L; Nankervis, C A; Delooze, D; Giannone, P J

2007-03-01

Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment are common strategies for the prevention or management of symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus (sPDA). To compare the clinical responses of extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants to indomethacin prophylaxis with that of other infants who were managed expectantly by being treated with indomethacin or surgically only after an sPDA was detected. Retrospective cohort investigation of 167 ELBW infants who received indomethacin prophylaxis (study) and 167 ELBW infants (control) treated expectantly who were matched by year of birth (1999 to 2006), birth weight, gestational age (GA) and gender. Mothers of the two groups of infants were comparable demographically and on the history of preterm labor, pre-eclampsia, antepartum steroids and cesarean delivery. Study and control infants were similar in birth weight, GA, low 5 min Apgar scores, surfactant administration, the need for arterial blood pressure control, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and neonatal mortality. Necrotizing enterocolitis, spontaneous intestinal perforations, intraventricular hemorrhage grade III to IV, periventricular leukomalacia and stage 3 to 5 retinopathy of prematurity occurred also with similar frequency in both groups of infants. In the indomethacin prophylaxis group, 29% of the infants developed sPDA, and of them 38% responded to indomethacin treatment. In the expectantly treated group, 37% developed sPDA, and of them 59% responded to indomethacin treatment. Overall, surgical ligation rate for sPDA was similar between both groups of patients. In our experience, indomethacin prophylaxis does not show any advantages over expectant early treatment on the management of sPDA in ELBW infants. Although no deleterious effects were observed, prophylaxis exposed a significant number of infants who may have never developed sPDA, to potential indomethacin-related complications.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Vavrus, S. J.

2012-12-01

Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense

Extreme Sea Conditions in Shallow Water: Estimation based on in-situ measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Le Crom, Izan; Saulnier, Jean-Baptiste

2013-04-01

The design of marine renewable energy devices and components is based, among others, on the assessment of the environmental extreme conditions (winds, currents, waves, and water level) that must be combined together in order to evaluate the maximal loads on a floating/fixed structure, and on the anchoring system over a determined return period. Measuring devices are generally deployed at sea over relatively short durations (a few months to a few years), typically when describing water free surface elevation, and extrapolation methods based on hindcast data (and therefore on wave simulation models) have to be used. How to combine, in a realistic way, the action of the different loads (winds and waves for instance) and which correlation of return periods should be used are highly topical issues. However, the assessment of the extreme condition itself remains a not-fully-solved, crucial, and sensitive task. Above all in shallow water, extreme wave height, Hmax, is the most significant contribution in the dimensioning process of EMR devices. As a case study, existing methodologies for deep water have been applied to SEMREV, the French marine energy test site. The interest of this study, especially at this location, goes beyond the simple application to SEMREV's WEC and floating wind turbines deployment as it could also be extended to the Banc de Guérande offshore wind farm that are planned close by. More generally to pipes and communication cables as it is a redundant problematic. The paper will first present the existing measurements (wave and wind on site), the prediction chain that has been developed via wave models, the extrapolation methods applied to hindcast data, and will try to formulate recommendations for improving this assessment in shallow water.

Extreme sea-levels, coastal risks and climate changes: lost in translation

Science.gov (United States)

Marone, Eduardo; Castro Carneiro, Juliane; Cintra, Márcio; Ribeiro, Andréa; Cardoso, Denis; Stellfeld, Carol

2014-05-01

Occurring commonly in Brazilian coastal (and continental) areas, floods are probably the most devastating natural hazards our local society faces nowadays. With the expected sea-level rise and tropical storms becoming stronger and more frequents, the scenarios of local impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges; causing loss of lives, environmental damages and socio-economic stress; need to be addressed and properly communicated. We present results related to the sea-level setups accordingly to IPCC's scenarios and the expected coastal floods in the Paraná State, Southern Brazil. The outcomes are displayed in scientific language accompanied by "translations" with the objective of showing the need of a different language approach to communicate with the players affected by coastal hazards. To create the "translation" of the "scientific" text we used the Up-Goer Five Text Editor, which allows writing texts using only the ten hundred most used English words. We allowed ourselves to use a maximum of five other words per box not present at this dictionary, not considering geographical names or units in the count, provided there were simple. That was necessary because words as sea, beach, sand, storm, etc., are not among the one thousand present at the Up-Goer, and they are simple enough anyhow. On the other hand, the not scientific public we targeted speaks Portuguese, not English, and we do not have an Up-Goer tool for that language. Anyhow, each Box was also produced in Portuguese, as much simple as possible, to disseminate our results to the local community. To illustrate the need of "translation", it is worthy to mention a real case of a troublesome misunderstanding caused by us, scientists, in our coastal society. Some years ago, one of our colleagues at the university, a much-respected scientist, informed through a press release that, on a given day, "we will experience the highest astronomical tide of the century". That statement (scientifically true and

Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Park

2010-06-01

Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

[Crossing borders. The motivation of extreme sportsmen].

Science.gov (United States)

Opaschowski, H W

2005-08-01

In his article "Crossing borders -- the motivation of extreme sportsmen" the author gets systematically to the bottom of the question of why extreme sportsmen voluntarily take risks and endanger themselves. Within the scope of a representative sampling 217 extreme sportsmen -- from the fields of mountain biking, trekking and free climbing, canoyning, river rafting and deep sea diving, paragliding, parachuting, bungee jumping and survival training -- give information about their personal motives. What fascinates them? The attraction of risk? The search for sensation? Or the drop out of everyday life? And what comes afterwards? Does in the end the whole life become an extreme sport? Fact is: they live extremely, because they want to move beyond well-trodden paths. To escape the boredom of everyday life they are searching for the kick, the thrill, the no-limit experience. It's about calculated risk between altitude flight and deep sea adventure.

Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2018-03-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28-82 cm), 56 cm (28-96 cm), and 58 cm (37-93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7-8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

(2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

When social inclusion is not enough: Implicit expectations of extreme inclusion in borderline personality disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

De Panfilis, Chiara; Riva, Paolo; Preti, Emanuele; Cabrino, Chiara; Marchesi, Carlo

2015-10-01

Increasing evidence suggests that individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD) might feel rejected even when socially included by others. A psychological mechanism accounting for this response bias could be that objective social inclusion violates BPD patients' underlying implicit needs of "extreme" inclusion. Thus, this study investigated whether, during interpersonal exchanges, BPD patients report more rejection-related negative emotions and less feelings of social connection than controls unless they are faced with conditions of extreme social inclusion. Sixty-one BPD patients and 61 healthy controls completed a modified Cyberball paradigm. They were randomly assigned to a condition of ostracism, social inclusion, or overinclusion (a proxy for extreme social inclusion). They then rated their emotional states and feelings of social connection immediately and 20 min after the game. BPD patients reported greater levels of negative emotions than controls in the ostracism and the inclusion conditions, but not when overincluded. Furthermore, only for BPD participants was overinclusion associated with experiencing less negative emotions than the ostracism condition. However, BPD patients reported lower feelings of social connection than controls in any experimental situation. Thus, in BPD, a laboratory condition of "overinclusion" is associated with a reduction of negative emotions to levels comparable to those of control participants, but not with similar degrees of social connection. These results suggest that for BPD patients, even "including contexts" activate feelings of rejection. Their implicit expectations of idealized interpersonal inclusion may nullify the opportunity of experiencing "real" social connection and explain their distorted subjective experiences of rejection. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

2016-04-01

Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

Response of Land-Sea Interface in Xiamen Bay to Extreme Weather Events Observed with the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a Multifunctional Sensors System

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, J.; Hong, H.; Pan, W.; Zhang, C.

2016-12-01

Recent climate observations suggest that global climate change may result in an increase of extreme weather events (such as tropical cyclones, intense precipitation i.e. heavy rains) in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions. Subtropical coastal regions are often densely populated areas experiencing rapid development and widespread changes to the aquatic environment. The biogeochemical and ecological responses of coastal systems to extreme weather events are of increasing concern. Enhanced river nutrients input following rain storms has been linked to the ecological responses at land-sea interface. These land-sea interactions can be studied using multifunctional sensors systems. In our study, the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a monitoring system with multiple sensors, was deployed in Xiamen Bay for near real time measurements of different parameters. The Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array is a deep water net cage which functions in long-term synchronous observation of dynamic ecological characteristics with the support of an aerograph, water-watch, LOBO (Land/Ocean Biogeochemical Observatory), ADCP, CTD chain system, YSI vertical profiler, flow cytometer, sea surface camera, and "communication box". The study showed that rain storms during multiple typhoons resulted in greater fluctuations of salinity, N concentration, and other water environmental conditions, which might have been connected with algal blooms (so-called red tide) in Xiamen Bay.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

Science.gov (United States)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

2013-04-01

The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

1994-01-01

The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

2009-01-01

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

In Situ Raman Spectral Characteristics of Carbon Dioxide in a Deep-Sea Simulator of Extreme Environments Reaching 300 ℃ and 30 MPa.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lianfu; Du, Zengfeng; Zhang, Xin; Xi, Shichuan; Wang, Bing; Luan, Zhendong; Lian, Chao; Yan, Jun

2018-01-01

Deep-sea carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a significant role in the global carbon cycle and directly affects the living environment of marine organisms. In situ Raman detection technology is an effective approach to study the behavior of deep-sea CO 2 . However, the Raman spectral characteristics of CO 2 can be affected by the environment, thus restricting the phase identification and quantitative analysis of CO 2 . In order to study the Raman spectral characteristics of CO 2 in extreme environments (up to 300 ℃ and 30 MPa), which cover most regions of hydrothermal vents and cold seeps around the world, a deep-sea extreme environment simulator was developed. The Raman spectra of CO 2 in different phases were obtained with Raman insertion probe (RiP) system, which was also used in in situ Raman detection in the deep sea carried by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) "Faxian". The Raman frequency shifts and bandwidths of gaseous, liquid, solid, and supercritical CO 2 and the CO 2 -H 2 O system were determined with the simulator. In our experiments (0-300 ℃ and 0-30 MPa), the peak positions of the symmetric stretching modes of gaseous CO 2, liquid CO 2 , and supercritical CO 2 shift approximately 0.6 cm -1 (1387.8-1388.4 cm -1 ), 0.7 cm -1 (1385.5-1386.2 cm -1 ), and 2.5 cm -1 (1385.7-1388.2 cm -1 ), and those of the bending modes shift about 1.0 cm -1 (1284.7-1285.7 cm -1 ), 1.9 cm -1 (1280.1-1282.0 cm -1 ), and 4.4 cm -1 (1281.0-1285.4 cm -1 ), respectively. The Raman spectral characteristics of the CO 2 -H 2 O system were also studied under the same conditions. The peak positions of dissolved CO 2 varied approximately 4.5 cm -1 (1282.5-1287.0 cm -1 ) and 2.4 cm -1 (1274.4-1276.8 cm -1 ) for each peak. In comparison with our experiment results, the phases of CO 2 in extreme conditions (0-3000 m and 0-300 ℃) can be identified with the Raman spectra collected in situ. This qualitative research on CO 2 can also support the

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

2018-03-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Schwab

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questions after extreme events, namely, ‘can we blame it on climate change’ and is assumed to support decision-making of various actors engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation. More in-depth research is widely lacking about who these actors are; in which context they can make use of it; and what requirements they have, to be able to actually apply Extreme Event Attribution. We have therefore addressed these questions with two empirical case studies looking at regional decision-makers who deal with storm surge risks in the German Baltic Sea region and heat waves in the Greater Paris area. Stakeholder interviews and workshops reveal that fields of application and requirements are diverse, difficult to explicitly identify, and often clearly associated with stakeholders' specific mandate, the hazard background, and the regional socio-economic setting. Among the considered stakeholders in the Baltic Sea region, Extreme Event Attribution is perceived to be most useful to awareness-raising, in particular for climate change mitigation. They emphasised the importance of receiving understandable information - and that, rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than faster, but with higher uncertainties. In the Paris case, we typically talked to people engaged in adaptation with expertise in terms of climate science, but narrowly defined mandates which is typical for the Paris-centred political system with highly specialised public experts. The interviewees claimed that Extreme Event Attribution is most useful to political leverage and public

Microbiology of the Red Sea (and other) deep-sea anoxic brine lakes

KAUST Repository

Antunes, Andre

2011-05-30

Summary: The Red Sea harbours approximately 25 deep-sea anoxic brine pools. They constitute extremely unique and complex habitats with the conjugation of several extreme physicochemical parameters rendering them some of the most inhospitable environments on Earth. After 50 years of research mostly driven by chemists, geophysicists and geologists, the microbiology of the brines has been receiving increased interest in the last decade. Recent molecular and cultivation-based studies have provided us with a first glimpse on the enormous biodiversity of the local microbial communities, the identification of several new taxonomic groups, and the isolation of novel extremophiles that thrive in these environments. This review presents a general overview of these unusual biotopes and compares them with other similar environments in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, with a focus on their microbial ecology. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Science.gov (United States)

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

2016-05-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2016-12-01

Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.

2013-11-01

Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and the Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish) during the last 16 yr. The highest number of cold fronts was observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was observed and the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total); moreover, an annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

2017-01-18

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

Extreme total solar irradiance due to cloud enhancement at sea level of the NE Atlantic coast of Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piacentini, Ruben D. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingenieria y Agrimensura, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Pellegrini 250, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Salum, Graciela M. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad Regional Concepcion del Uruguay, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional, Concepcion del Uruguay (Argentina); Fraidenraich, Naum; Tiba, Chigueru [Grupo de Pesquisas em Fontes Alternativas de Energia, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Luiz Freire, 1000 - 50.740-540, Recife, PE (Brazil)

2011-01-15

Extraterrestrial total solar irradiance, usually called Solar Constant, is attenuated by the atmosphere in different proportions, depending mainly on solar zenith angle and altitude of the measurement point. In this work, it is presented very high and extreme horizontal plane measurements of global solar irradiance that in some days overpassed the Solar Constant corrected by the actual Sun-Earth distance (CSC). They were obtained at sea level of the intertropical Atlantic coast, in the city of Recife, Brazil, in the period February 2008-January 2009. Extreme total solar irradiance values larger than CSC were measured during 3.4% of the days of the total registered period. This percentage increases to 7.4% for global solar irradiance within 95.1-100% of the CSC and to 15.3% within 90.1-95% of the CSC. The largest extreme total solar irradiance value, 1477 {+-} 30 W/m{sup 2}, was registered the 28th of March 2008 at 11:34 local time (UT - 3h). It overpassed by 7.9% the CSC value for this day (1369.4 W/m{sup 2}) and by 42.3% the estimated value of the clear sky Iqbal C radiation model (1037.7 W/m{sup 2}). The observation of extreme values should be taken into account in the study of solar radiation effects related to materials exposed to the outside, UV index and biological effects, among others. Also, the detailed knowledge of this interesting effect may contribute significantly to clarify physical aspects about the interaction of global solar radiation with the ecosystem and climate change. (author)

Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

2016-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

Arctic sea-ice ridges—Safe heavens for sea-ice fauna during periods of extreme ice melt?

Science.gov (United States)

Gradinger, Rolf; Bluhm, Bodil; Iken, Katrin

2010-01-01

The abundances and distribution of metazoan within-ice meiofauna (13 stations) and under-ice fauna (12 stations) were investigated in level sea ice and sea-ice ridges in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Canada Basin in June/July 2005 using a combination of ice coring and SCUBA diving. Ice meiofauna abundance was estimated based on live counts in the bottom 30 cm of level sea ice based on triplicate ice core sampling at each location, and in individual ice chunks from ridges at four locations. Under-ice amphipods were counted in situ in replicate ( N=24-65 per station) 0.25 m 2 quadrats using SCUBA to a maximum water depth of 12 m. In level sea ice, the most abundant ice meiofauna groups were Turbellaria (46%), Nematoda (35%), and Harpacticoida (19%), with overall low abundances per station that ranged from 0.0 to 10.9 ind l -1 (median 0.8 ind l -1). In level ice, low ice algal pigment concentrations (Turbellaria, Nematoda and Harpacticoida also were observed in pressure ridges (0-200 ind l -1, median 40 ind l -1), although values were highly variable and only medians of Turbellaria were significantly higher in ridge ice than in level ice. Median abundances of under-ice amphipods at all ice types (level ice, various ice ridge structures) ranged from 8 to 114 ind m -2 per station and mainly consisted of Apherusa glacialis (87%), Onisimus spp. (7%) and Gammarus wilkitzkii (6%). Highest amphipod abundances were observed in pressure ridges at depths >3 m where abundances were up to 42-fold higher compared with level ice. We propose that the summer ice melt impacted meiofauna and under-ice amphipod abundance and distribution through (a) flushing, and (b) enhanced salinity stress at thinner level sea ice (less than 3 m thickness). We further suggest that pressure ridges, which extend into deeper, high-salinity water, become accumulation regions for ice meiofauna and under-ice amphipods in summer. Pressure ridges thus might be crucial for faunal survival during periods of

Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rinnan, Riikka; Steinke, Michael; McGenity, Terry; Loreto, Francesco

2014-08-01

This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' on the local thermal regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Isaev, Alexey V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). P.P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology; Eremina, Tatjana R. [Russian State Hydrometeorological Univ., St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Sein, Dmitry V. [Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany). Alfred Wegener Inst.

2017-07-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der

2016-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

2017-12-01

Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

The sea ice in Young Sound: Implications for carbon cycling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glud, Ronnie Nøhr; Rysgaard, Søren; Kühl, Michael

2007-01-01

on the available nutrients. The sea-ice algal community adapts effi ciently to the local light environment, and in areas with natural (or man-made) holes and cracks sea-ice algae bloom. However, despite ample nutrients, the overall phototrophic biomass in Young Sound remains very low, with maximum values of c. 15......–30 μg Chl a l-1 sea ice at the underside of the ice and with maximum area integrated values of c. 3 mg Chl a m-2. We speculate that the extreme dynamics in sea-ice appearance, structure and brine percolation, which is driven primarily by large but variable freshwater inputs during snow melt...... the sea-ice matrix were extremely dynamic and strongly regulated by physical processes related to freezing and thawing of sea water rather than biological activity. Enclosure experiments on sea-ice samples performed in June 2002 revealed a high heterotrophic potential causing the sea-ice environment...

Exploring Archaeal Communities And Genomes Across Five Deep-Sea Brine Lakes Of The Red Sea With A Focus On Methanogens

KAUST Repository

Guan, Yue

2015-12-15

The deep-sea hypersaline lakes in the Red Sea are among the most challenging, extreme, and unusual environments on the planet Earth. Despite their harshness to life, they are inhabited by diverse and novel members of prokaryotes. Methanogenesis was proposed as one of the main metabolic pathways that drive microbial colonization in similar habitats. However, not much is known about the identities of the methane-producing microbes in the Red Sea, let alone the way in which they could adapt to such poly extreme environments. Combining a range of microbial community assessment, cultivation and omics (genomics, transcriptomics, and single amplified genomics) approaches, this dissertation seeks to fill these gaps in our knowledge by studying archaeal composition, particularly methanogens, their genomic capacities and transcriptomic characteristics in order to elucidate their diversity, function, and adaptation to the deep-sea brines of the Red Sea. Although typical methanogens are not abundant in the samples collected from brine pool habitats of the Red Sea, the pilot cultivation experiment has revealed novel halophilic methanogenic species of the domain Archaea. Their physiological traits as well as their genomic and transcriptomic features unveil an interesting genetic and functional adaptive capacity that allows them to thrive in the unique deep-sea hypersaline environments in the Red Sea.

Effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic field on brain histopathology of Caspian Sea Cyprinus carpio.

Science.gov (United States)

Samiee, Farzaneh; Samiee, Keivandokht

2017-01-01

There is limited research on the effect of electromagnetic field on aquatic organisms, especially freshwater fish species. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF-EMF) (50 Hz) exposure on brain histopathology of Cyprinus carpio, one of the important species of Caspian Sea with significant economic value. A total of 200 healthy fish were used in this study. They were classified randomly in two groups: sham-exposed group and experimental group, which were exposed to five different magnetic field intensities (0.1, 1, 3, 5, and 7 mT) at two different exposure times (0.5 and 1 h). Histologic results indicate that exposure of C. carpio to artificial ELF-EMF caused severe histopathological changes in the brain at field intensities ≥3 mT leading to brain necrosis. Field intensity and duration of exposure were key parameters in induction of lesion in the brain. Further studies are needed to elucidate exact mechanism of EMF exposure on the brain.

Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

Science.gov (United States)

Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

2014-01-01

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amélie Lescroël

Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

2013-01-01

During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

Observations and Modeling of Turbulent Air-Sea Coupling in Coastal and Strongly Forced Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Suslow, David G.

The turbulent fluxes of momentum, mass, and energy across the ocean-atmosphere boundary are fundamental to our understanding of a myriad of geophysical processes, such as wind-wave generation, oceanic circulation, and air-sea gas transfer. In order to better understand these fluxes, empirical relationships were developed to quantify the interfacial exchange rates in terms of easily observed parameters (e.g., wind speed). However, mounting evidence suggests that these empirical formulae are only valid over the relatively narrow parametric space, i.e. open ocean conditions in light to moderate winds. Several near-surface processes have been observed to cause significant variance in the air-sea fluxes not predicted by the conventional functions, such as a heterogeneous surfaces, swell waves, and wave breaking. Further study is needed to fully characterize how these types of processes can modulate the interfacial exchange; in order to achieve this, a broad investigation into air-sea coupling was undertaken. The primary focus of this work was to use a combination of field and laboratory observations and numerical modeling, in regimes where conventional theories would be expected to breakdown, namely: the nearshore and in very high winds. These seemingly disparate environments represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer at its physical limit. In the nearshore, the convergence of land, air, and sea in a depth-limited domain marks the transition from a marine to a terrestrial boundary layer. Under extreme winds, the physical nature of the boundary layer remains unknown as an intermediate substrate layer, sea spray, develops between the atmosphere and ocean surface. At these ends of the MABL physical spectrum, direct measurements of the near-surface processes were made and directly related to local sources of variance. Our results suggest that the conventional treatment of air-sea fluxes in terms of empirical relationships developed from a relatively narrow set of

Could the acid-base status of Antarctic sea urchins indicate a better-than-expected resilience to near-future ocean acidification?

Science.gov (United States)

Collard, Marie; De Ridder, Chantal; David, Bruno; Dehairs, Frank; Dubois, Philippe

2015-02-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration alters the chemistry of the oceans towards more acidic conditions. Polar oceans are particularly affected due to their low temperature, low carbonate content and mixing patterns, for instance upwellings. Calcifying organisms are expected to be highly impacted by the decrease in the oceans' pH and carbonate ions concentration. In particular, sea urchins, members of the phylum Echinodermata, are hypothesized to be at risk due to their high-magnesium calcite skeleton. However, tolerance to ocean acidification in metazoans is first linked to acid-base regulation capacities of the extracellular fluids. No information on this is available to date for Antarctic echinoderms and inference from temperate and tropical studies needs support. In this study, we investigated the acid-base status of 9 species of sea urchins (3 cidaroids, 2 regular euechinoids and 4 irregular echinoids). It appears that Antarctic regular euechinoids seem equipped with similar acid-base regulation systems as tropical and temperate regular euechinoids but could rely on more passive ion transfer systems, minimizing energy requirements. Cidaroids have an acid-base status similar to that of tropical cidaroids. Therefore Antarctic cidaroids will most probably not be affected by decreasing seawater pH, the pH drop linked to ocean acidification being negligible in comparison of the naturally low pH of the coelomic fluid. Irregular echinoids might not suffer from reduced seawater pH if acidosis of the coelomic fluid pH does not occur but more data on their acid-base regulation are needed. Combining these results with the resilience of Antarctic sea urchin larvae strongly suggests that these organisms might not be the expected victims of ocean acidification. However, data on the impact of other global stressors such as temperature and of the combination of the different stressors needs to be acquired to assess the sensitivity of these organisms to global

Synoptic conditions of fine-particle transport to the last interglacial Red Sea -Dead Sea from Nd-Sr compositions of sediment cores

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, M.; Palchan, D.; Goldstein, S. L.; Almogi-Labin, A.; Tirosh, O.; Erel, Y.

2017-12-01

The last interglacial peak, Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e), was associated with stronger northern hemisphere insolation, higher global sea levels and higher average global temperatures compared to the Holocene, and is considered as an analogue for a future warming world. In this perspective the present-day areas of the Sahara - Arabia deserts (the "desert belt") are of special interest since their margins are densely inhabited and global climate models predict enhanced aridity in these regions due to future warming. The Red Sea situated at the midst of the desert belt and the Dead Sea at the northern fringe of the desert belt comprise sensitive monitors for past hydroclimate changes in the Red Sea-Levant regions as global climate shifted from glacial to interglacial conditions. Here, we reconstruct the synoptic conditions that controlled desert dust transport to the Red Sea and the Dead Sea during MIS5e. The reconstruction is based on Nd-Sr isotopes and chemical composition of carbonate-free detritus recovered from sediment cores drilled at the deep floors of these water-bodies combined with data of contemporaneous dust storms transporting dust to the lake and sea floors. During Termination 2 ( 134-130 ka) the Sahara, Nile River desiccated and the Dead Sea watershed were under extreme dry conditions manifested by lake level drop, deposition of salt and enhanced transport of Sahara dusts to the entire studied transect. At the peak of the interglacial MIS 5e ( 130-120 ka), enhanced flooding activity mobilized local fine detritus from the surroundings of the Red Sea and the Dead Sea watershed into the water-bodies. This interval coincided with the Sapropel event S5 in the Mediterranean that responded to enhanced monsoon rains at the heads of the Blue Nile River. At the end of MIS 5e ( 120-116 ka) the effect of the regional floods faded and the Dead Sea and Red Sea areas re-entered sever arid conditions with salt deposition at the Dead Sea. Overall, the desert

The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

2002-01-01

The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

A deep sea community at the Kebrit brine pool in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Vestheim, Hege

2015-02-26

Approximately 25 deep sea brine pools occur along the mid axis of the Red Sea. These hypersaline, anoxic, and acidic environments have previously been reported to host diverse microbial communities. We visited the Kebrit brine pool in April 2013 and found macrofauna present just above the brine–seawater interface (~1465 m). In particular, inactive sulfur chimneys had associated epifauna of sea anemones, sabellid type polychaetes, and hydroids, and infauna consisting of capitellid polychaetes, gastropods of the genus Laeviphitus (fam. Elachisinidae), and top snails of the family Cocculinidae. The deep Red Sea generally is regarded as extremely poor in benthos. We hypothesize that the periphery along the Kebrit holds increased biomass and biodiversity that are sustained by prokaryotes associated with the brine pool or co-occurring seeps.

Study on extreme high temperature of cooling water in Chinese coastal nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Fan; Jiang Ziying

2012-01-01

In order to protect aquatic life from the harmful effects of thermal discharge, the appropriate water temperature limits or the scope of the mixing zone is a key issue in the regulatory control of the environmental impact of thermal discharge. Based on the sea surface temperature in the Chinese coastal waters, the extreme value of the seawater temperature change was analyzed by using the Gumbel model. The limit of the design temperature rise of cooling water in the outfall is 9 ℃, and the limit of the temperature rise of cooling water in the edge of the mixing zone is 4 ℃. The extreme high temperature of the cooling water in Chinese coastal nuclear power plant is 37 ℃ in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and is 40 ℃ in East China Sea, South China Sea. (authors)

The Mediterranean Moisture Contribution to Climatological and Extreme Monthly Continental Precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danica Ciric

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Moisture transport from its sources to surrounding continents is one of the most relevant topics in hydrology, and its role in extreme events is crucial for understanding several processes such as intense precipitation and flooding. In this study, we considered the Mediterranean Sea as the main water source and estimated its contribution to the monthly climatological and extreme precipitation events over the surrounding continental areas. To assess the effect of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation, we used the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP database to characterize precipitation. The Lagrangian dispersion model known as FLEXPART was used to estimate the moisture contribution of this source. This contribution was estimated by tracking particles that leave the Mediterranean basin monthly and then calculating water loss (E − P < 0 over the continental region, which was modelled by FLEXPART. The analysis was conducted using data from 1980 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. The results showed that, in general, the spatial pattern of the Mediterranean source’s contribution to precipitation, unlike climatology, is similar during extreme precipitation years in the regions under study. However, while the Mediterranean Sea is usually not an important source of climatological precipitation for some European regions, it is a significant source during extreme precipitation years.

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Projecting future sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and

Views on planning and expectations of SEA: the case of transport planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilden, Mikael; Furman, Eeva; Kaljonen, Minna

2004-01-01

This paper examines the effectiveness of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in transport planning in the light of different views of planning: synoptic optimising planning, communicative planning and planning as a social struggle. The analysis uses empirical materials from 17 case studies collected by survey from Member Countries of the United Nation's Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) and further processed in a practitioners' workshop, and also a detailed case study carried out in Finland. The case studies and the workshop identified a set of necessary conditions and facilitating factors that contribute to the effectiveness of strategic environmental assessments in transport planning. Our findings suggest that transport planning can often best be characterised as a social struggle over problem definitions and future choices. Thus, the effectiveness of SEA will depend on how well the assessment fits into the planning context and on its actual contribution to debates on problem definitions. Specific procedural steps may improve the effectiveness but explicit requirements to recognise SEA in decision making are likely to be a key condition

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delson Chikobvu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

2018-01-01

Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

Cytotoxic and apoptotic evaluations of marine bacteria isolated from brine-seawater interface of the Red Sea.

KAUST Repository

Sagar, Sunil; Esau, Luke; Hikmawan, Tyas I.; Antunes, Andre; Holtermann, Karie; Stingl, Ulrich; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Kaur, Mandeep

2013-01-01

High salinity and temperature combined with presence of heavy metals and low oxygen renders deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea as one of the most extreme environments on Earth. The ability to adapt and survive in these extreme environments makes

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

Science.gov (United States)

Charlene N. Kelly; Kevin J. McGuire; Chelcy Ford Miniat; James M. Vose

2016-01-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the...

Flooding hazards from sea extremes and subsidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo; Vognsen, Karsten; Broge, Niels

2015-01-01

of tide gauge records, statistics that allow also for projections of SLR, meteorological variability, and extremes with a very low probability of occurrence are provided. Land movement is researched with a focus on short term surface height variability in the groundwater-ocean interface that, together...... with longer term processes, may cause substantial subsidence and impact future water management and adaptation strategies in flood prone coastal areas. Field studies’ results from repeated precise levelling, GPS setups, and ocean and groundwater level monitoring in Thyborøn and Aarhus are integrated...

Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

that the outcome of the project has been a code that is capable of predicting correct trends more often (15 out of 20) than the other ‘black box’ codes in operation at various agencies. U. N. SINHA CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

2017-12-01

As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Crossing seas and occurrence of rogue waves

Science.gov (United States)

Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta; Toffoli, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The study is addressing crossing wave systems which may lead to formation of rogue waves. Onorato et al. (2006, 2010) have shown using the Nonlinear Schr?dringer (NLS) equations that the modulational instability and rogue waves can be triggered by a peculiar form of directional sea state, where two identical, crossing, narrow-banded random wave systems interact with each other. Such results have been underpinned by numerical simulations of the Euler equations solved with a Higher Order Spectral Method (HOSM) and experimental observations (Toffoli et al., 2011). They substantiate a dependence of the angle between the mean directions of propagation of the two crossing wave systems, with a maximum rogue wave probability for angles of approximately 40 degrees. Such an unusual sea state of two almost identical wave systems (approximately the same significant wave height and mean frequency) with high steepness and different directions was observed during the accident to the cruise ship Louis Majesty (Cavaleri et al. 2012). Occurrence of wind sea and swell having almost the same spectral period and significant wave height and crossing at the angle 40o low and intermediate wave conditions. They have not been found in a location off coast of Australia and Nigeria. There are some indications that in the future climate we may expect an increase number of occurrence of rogue-prone crossing sea states in some ocean regions An adopted partitioning procedure of a wave spectrum will impact the results. References Bitner-Gregersen, E.M. and Toffoli, A., 2014. Probability of occurrence of rogue sea states and consequences for design of marine structures. Special Issue of Ocean Dynamics, ISSN 1616-7341, 64(10), DOI 10.1007/s10236-014-0753-2. Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Torrisi, L. Bitner-Gregersen, E., Serio, M. and Onorato, M., 2012. Rogue Waves in Crossing Seas: The Louis Majesty accident. J. Geophysical Research, 117, C00J10, doi:10.1029/2012JC007923 Onorato, M., A. Osborne, A

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean

Japan nuclear ship sea trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Toshikatus; Mizushima, Toshihiko

1992-01-01

The sea trial of the first Japan nuclear Ship 'MUTSU' was conducted from the end of October to December in 1990. The purpose of the sea trial was to verify the nuclear propulsive performances and maneuverabilities. The present report describes the results of the sea trial. These results are classified into four items: 1. Speed test and engineering performance tests 2. Maneuvering performance tests 3. Vibration tests 4. Other tests. Acceptable performances were demonstrated, as expected in the original design. The experience of the use of the Global Positioning System (GPS), which were newly adopted for the sea trial, is also reported. (author)

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

The Dead Sea, The Lake and Its Setting

Science.gov (United States)

Brink, Uri ten

I cannot think of a subject more befitting the description of interdisciplinary research with societal relevance than the study of the Dead Sea, a terminal lake of the Jordan River in Israel and Jordan. The scientific study of the Dead Sea is intimately connected with politics, religion, archeology, economic development, tourism, and environmental change.The Dead Sea is a relatively closed geologic and limnologic system with drastic physical changes often occurring on human timescales and with a long human history to observe these changes. Research in this unique area covers diverse aspects such as active subsidence and deformation along strike-slip faults; vertical stratification and stability of the water column; physical properties of extremely saline and dense (1234 kg/m3) water; spontaneous precipitation of minerals in an oversaturated environment; origin of the unusual chemical composition of the brine; existence of life in extreme environments; use of lake level fluctuations as a paleoclimatic indicator; and effects on the environment of human intervention versus natural climatic variability. Although the Dead Sea covers a small area on a global scale, it is nevertheless one of the largest natural laboratories for these types of research on Earth. These reasons make the Dead Sea a fascinating topic for the curious mind.

Spatial variation in extreme water levels in the Baltic Sea – North Sea transition from tide gauge records

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

events.Knowledge about extremes is essential for climate adaptation, design, and planning purposes. In an ongoing research project we seek to develop more robust and objective statistics for Denmark. This includes a revisit to all tide gauge stations’ (TG) data and exploring methods for extreme value...

Cytotoxic and apoptotic evaluations of marine bacteria isolated from brine-seawater interface of the Red Sea.

KAUST Repository

Sagar, Sunil

2013-02-06

High salinity and temperature combined with presence of heavy metals and low oxygen renders deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea as one of the most extreme environments on Earth. The ability to adapt and survive in these extreme environments makes inhabiting bacteria interesting candidates for the search of novel bioactive molecules.

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Extreme Winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob

2009-01-01

wind. We examined extreme winds in different places where the strongest wind events are weather phenomena of different scales, including the mid-latitude lows in Denmark, channelling winds in the Gulf of Suez, typhoons in the western North Pacific, cyclones in the Caribbean Sea, local strong winds...

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

The SEA complex – the beginning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dokudovskaya S. S.

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The presence of distinctive internal membrane compartments, dynamically connected via selective transport pathways, is a hallmark of eukaryotic cells. Many of the proteins required for formation and maintenance of these compartments share an evolutionary history. We have recently identified a new conserved protein complex – the SEA complex – that possesses proteins with structural characteristics similar to the membrane coating complexes such as the nuclear pore complex (NPC, the COPII vesicle coating complex and HOPS/CORVET tethering complexes. The SEA complex in yeast is dynamically associated to the vacuole. The data on the function of the SEA complex remain extremely limited. Here we will discuss a possible role of the SEA complex based on the data from genetic assays and a number of functional studies in both yeast and other eukaryotes.

Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans) in the Baltic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ardehed, Angelica; Johansson, Daniel; Sundqvist, Lisa; Schagerström, Ellen; Zagrodzka, Zuzanna; Kovaltchouk, Nikolaj A; Bergström, Lena; Kautsky, Lena; Rafajlovic, Marina; Pereyra, Ricardo T; Johannesson, Kerstin

2016-01-01

Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a need for more

Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica Ardehed

Full Text Available Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a

The SeaDAS Processing and Analysis System: SeaWiFS, MODIS, and Beyond

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, M. D.; Ruebens, M.; Wang, L.; Franz, B. A.

2005-12-01

The SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS) is a comprehensive software package for the processing, display, and analysis of ocean data from a variety of satellite sensors. Continuous development and user support by programmers and scientists for more than a decade has helped to make SeaDAS the most widely used software package in the world for ocean color applications, with a growing base of users from the land and sea surface temperature community. Full processing support for past (CZCS, OCTS, MOS) and present (SeaWiFS, MODIS) sensors, and anticipated support for future missions such as NPP/VIIRS, enables end users to reproduce the standard ocean archive product suite distributed by NASA's Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG), as well as a variety of evaluation and intermediate ocean, land, and atmospheric products. Availability of the processing algorithm source codes and a software build environment also provide users with the tools to implement custom algorithms. Recent SeaDAS enhancements include synchronization of MODIS processing with the latest code and calibration updates from the MODIS Calibration Support Team (MCST), support for all levels of MODIS processing including Direct Broadcast, a port to the Macintosh OS X operating system, release of the display/analysis-only SeaDAS-Lite, and an extremely active web-based user support forum.

Distribution and activity of petroleum hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in the North Sea and Baltic Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruns, K.; Dahlmann, G.; Gunkel, W.

1993-01-01

Data were collected in 1988 and 1989 on the distribution and activity of petroleum hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Crude oil degrading bacteria and the number of bacteria which in particular degrade naphthalene were quantified using a modified dilution method (MPN). Crude oil degrading bacteria were present in all of about 100 water samples, with as many as 10 3 ml -1 in some samples. Numbers of naphthalene degrading bacteria were at least tenfold lower. There is obviously a greater connection between this bacteria group and petroleum hydrocarbon (PHC) contamination than between the more nonspecific group of crude oil degrading bacteria and PHC contamination. Data from the North Sea show an extremely high abundance of hydrocarbon degrading bacteria, even in winter, while in the southern Baltic Sea low numbers of bacteria were found and slower crude oil degradation was observed. (orig.)

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

Adaptation to the deep-sea hydrothermal vents and cold seeps: Insights from the transcriptomes of Alvinocaris longirostris in both environments

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Min; Cheng, Jiao; Sha, Zhongli

2018-05-01

Alvinocaris longirostris Kikuchi and Ohta, 1995 is one of the few species co-distributed in deep-sea hydrothermal vent and cold seep environments. We performed the transcriptome analysis for A. longirostris and identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between samples from the Iheya North hydrothermal vent (HV) and a methane seep in the South China Sea (MS). From the 57,801 annotated unigenes, multi-copies of enzyme family members for eliminating toxic xenobiotics were isolated and seven putatively duplicated gene clusters of cytochrome P450s were discovered, which may contribute to adaptation to the harsh conditions. Eight single amino acid substitutions of a Rhodopsin gene with low expression in two deep-sea alvinocaridid species were positively selected when compared with shallow water shrimps, which may be the result of adaptation to the dim-light environment in deep sea. 408 DEGs were identified with 53 and 355 up-regulated in HV and MS, respectively. Various genes associated with sulfur metabolism, detoxification and mitochondria were included, revealing different mechanisms of adaptation to the two types of extreme environments. All results are expected to serve as important basis for the further study.

Insertion sequences enrichment in extreme Red sea brine pool vent

KAUST Repository

Elbehery, Ali H. A.; Aziz, Ramy K.; Siam, Rania

2016-01-01

Mobile genetic elements are major agents of genome diversification and evolution. Limited studies addressed their characteristics, including abundance, and role in extreme habitats. One of the rare natural habitats exposed to multiple

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke

2013-08-01

Extreme precipitation events in the upper Yangtze River Valley (YRV) have recently become an increasingly important focus in China because they often cause droughts and floods. Unfortunately, little is known about the climate processes responsible for these events. This paper investigates factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation events in the upper YRV. Our results reveal that a weakened South China Sea summer monsoon trough, intensified Eurasian-Pacific blocking highs, an intensified South Asian High, a southward subtropical westerly jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) increase atmospheric instability and enhance the convergence of moisture over the upper YRV, which result in more extreme precipitation events. The snow depth over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) in winter and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over three key regions in summer are important external forcing factors in the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Deep snow on the Tibetan Plateau in winter can weaken the subsequent East Asian summer monsoon circulation above by increasing the soil moisture content in summer and weakening the land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia. The positive SSTA in the western North Pacific may affect southwestward extension of the WNPSH and the blocking high over northeastern Asia by arousing the East Asian-Pacific pattern. The positive SSTA in the North Atlantic can affect extreme precipitation event frequency in the upper YRV via a wave train pattern along the westerly jet between the North Atlantic and East Asia. A tripolar pattern from west to east over the Indian Ocean can strengthen moisture transport by enhancing Somali cross-equatorial flow.

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Attribution of climate extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

2015-08-01

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring (gouging) event, Canadian Beaufort shelf

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blasco, Steve [Geological Survey of Canada, Dartmouth (Canada); Carr, Erin; Campbell, Patrick [Canadian Seabed Research Ltd., Porters Lake (Canada); Shearer, Jim [Shearer Consulting, Ottawa (Canada)

2011-07-01

A knowledge of the presence of scours, their dimensions and their return frequencies is highly important in the development of hydrocarbon offshore structures. Mapping surveys have identified 290 extreme scour events across the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This paper investigated the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring events in the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This study used the NEWBASE database of new ice scours to perform an analysis of the scours appearance mechanisms. The geotechnical zonation, the bathymetry and the shelf gradient were evaluated using these data. Estimation of the surficial sediment type, the surficial sediment thickness and sea ice regime were also made. It was found that the spatial distribution of extreme scour events is controlled by sea-ice regime, bathymetry and geotechnical zonation. The results obtained from mapping surveys suggested that the key controlling environmental factors may combine to limit the depth of extreme scour events to 5 meters.

Deep-sea biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea: the known, the unknown, and the unknowable.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Danovaro

Full Text Available Deep-sea ecosystems represent the largest biome of the global biosphere, but knowledge of their biodiversity is still scant. The Mediterranean basin has been proposed as a hot spot of terrestrial and coastal marine biodiversity but has been supposed to be impoverished of deep-sea species richness. We summarized all available information on benthic biodiversity (Prokaryotes, Foraminifera, Meiofauna, Macrofauna, and Megafauna in different deep-sea ecosystems of the Mediterranean Sea (200 to more than 4,000 m depth, including open slopes, deep basins, canyons, cold seeps, seamounts, deep-water corals and deep-hypersaline anoxic basins and analyzed overall longitudinal and bathymetric patterns. We show that in contrast to what was expected from the sharp decrease in organic carbon fluxes and reduced faunal abundance, the deep-sea biodiversity of both the eastern and the western basins of the Mediterranean Sea is similarly high. All of the biodiversity components, except Bacteria and Archaea, displayed a decreasing pattern with increasing water depth, but to a different extent for each component. Unlike patterns observed for faunal abundance, highest negative values of the slopes of the biodiversity patterns were observed for Meiofauna, followed by Macrofauna and Megafauna. Comparison of the biodiversity associated with open slopes, deep basins, canyons, and deep-water corals showed that the deep basins were the least diverse. Rarefaction curves allowed us to estimate the expected number of species for each benthic component in different bathymetric ranges. A large fraction of exclusive species was associated with each specific habitat or ecosystem. Thus, each deep-sea ecosystem contributes significantly to overall biodiversity. From theoretical extrapolations we estimate that the overall deep-sea Mediterranean biodiversity (excluding prokaryotes reaches approximately 2805 species of which about 66% is still undiscovered. Among the biotic components

Projections of extreme water level events for atolls in the western Tropical Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-12-01

Conditions that lead to extreme water levels and coastal flooding are examined for atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands based on a recent field study of wave transformations over fringing reefs, tide gauge observations, and wave model hindcasts. Wave-driven water level extremes pose the largest threat to atoll shorelines, with coastal levels scaling as approximately one-third of the incident breaking wave height. The wave-driven coastal water level is partitioned into a mean setup, low frequency oscillations associated with cross-reef quasi-standing modes, and wind waves that reach the shore after undergoing high dissipation due to breaking and bottom friction. All three components depend on the water level over the reef; however, the sum of the components is independent of water level due to cancelling effects. Wave hindcasts suggest that wave-driven water level extremes capable of coastal flooding are infrequent events that require a peak wave event to coincide with mid- to high-tide conditions. Interannual and decadal variations in sea level do not change the frequency of these events appreciably. Future sea-level rise scenarios significantly increase the flooding threat associated with wave events, with a nearly exponential increase in flooding days per year as sea level exceeds 0.3 to 1.0 m above current levels.

Measures of serial extremal dependence and their estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Richard A.; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

2013-01-01

extremal dependence is typically characterized by clusters of exceedances of high thresholds in the series. We start by discussing the notion of extremal index of a univariate sequence, i.e. the reciprocal of the expected cluster size, which has attracted major attention in the extremal value literature...... has attracted attention for modeling and statistical purposes. We apply the extremogram to max-stable processes. Finally, we discuss estimation of the extremogram both in the time and frequency domains....

Using mobile, internet connected deep sea crawlers for spatial and temporal analysis of cold seep ecosystems and the collection of real-time classroom data for extreme environment education.

Science.gov (United States)

Purser, Autun; Kwasnitschka, Tom; Duda, Alexander; Schwendner, Jakob; Bamberg, Marlene; Sohl, Frank; Doya, Carol; Aguzzi, Jacopo; Best, Mairi; Llovet, Neus Campanya I.; Scherwath, Martin; Thomsen, Laurenz

2015-04-01

Cabled internet and power connectivity with the deep sea allow instruments to operate in the deep sea at higher temporal resolutions than was possible historically, with the reliance on battery life and data storage capacities. In addition to the increase in sensor temporal frequency, cabled infrastructures now allow remote access to and control of mobile platforms on the seafloor. Jacobs University Bremen, in combination with collaborators from the Robotic Exploration of Extreme Environments (ROBEX) project, CSIC Barcelona and Ocean Networks Canada have been operating tracked deep sea crawler vehicles at ~890 m depth at the dynamic Barkley Canyon methane seep site, Pacific Canada during the last ~4 years. The vehicle has been able to explore an area of ~50 m radius, allowing repeated visits to numerous microhabitats. Mounting a range of sensors, including temperature, pressure, conductivity, fluorescence, turbidity, flow and methane concentration sensors, as well as various camera systems a large dataset has been compiled. Several methane pockmarks are present in the survey area, and geological, biological and oceanographic changes have been monitored over a range of timescales. Several publications have been produced, and in this presentation we introduce further data currently under analysis. Cabled internet connectivity further allows mobile platforms to be used directly in education. As part of the ROBEX project, researchers and students from both terrestrial and planetary sciences are using the crawler in an ongoing study project. Students are introduced to statistical methods from both fields during the course and in later stages they can plan their own research using the in-situ crawler, and follow the progress of their investigations live, then analyse the collected data using the techniques introduced during the course. Cabled infrastructures offer a unique facility for spatial investigation of extreme ecosystems over time, and for the 'hands on

Sea-ice thickness from field measurements in the northwestern Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

King, Jennifer; Spreen, Gunnar; Gerland, Sebastian; Haas, Christian; Hendricks, Stefan; Kaleschke, Lars; Wang, Caixin

2017-02-01

The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at -23±4% decade-1. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014. The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between 1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice; as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either first-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5-0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.

Recent Arctic sea level variations from satellites

OpenAIRE

Ole Baltazar Andersen; Gaia ePiccioni

2016-01-01

Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher...

Operability Guidelines For Product Tanker In Heavy Weather In The Adriatic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mudronja Luka

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents operability guidelines for seafarers on a product tanker which navigates in the Adriatic Sea during heavy weather. Tanker route starts from the Otranto strait in the south to the island Krk in the north of Adriatic Sea. Heavy weather is caused by south wind called jugo (blowing from E-SE to SS-E, sirocco family. Operability guidelines are given based on an operability criteria platform for presenting ship seakeeping characteristics. Operability criteria considered in this paper are propeller emergence, deck wetness and bow acceleration of a product tanker. Limiting values of mentioned criteria determine sustainable speed. Heavy weather is described by extreme sea state of 7.5 m wave height. Wave spectrum used in this paper is Tabain spectrum which is developed specifically for Adriatic Sea. Seafarer's approach of decisions making in extreme weather is also shown and servers as a guideline for further research of the authors.

Possible multihazard events (tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides) expected on the North Bulgarian Black sea coast

Science.gov (United States)

Ranguelov, B.; Gospodinopv, D.

2009-04-01

Earthquakes The area is famous with its seismic regime. The region usually shows non regular behavior of the strong events occurrence. There are episodes of activation and between them long periods of seismic quiescence. The most important one is at the I-st century BC when according to the chronicler Strabo, the ancient Greek colony "Bisone sank in the waters of the sea". The seismic source is known as Shabla-Kaliakra zone with the best documented seismic event of 31st March 1901. This event had a magnitude of 7.2 (estimated by the macroseismic transformation formula) with a source depth of about 10-20 km. The epicenter was located in the aquatory of the sea. The observed macroseismic intensity on the land reached the maximum value of X degree MSK. This event produced a number of secondary effects - landslides, rockfalls, subsidence, extensive destruction of the houses located around and tsunami (up to 3 meters height observed at Balchik port. This event is selected as referent one. Tsunamis Such earthquakes (magnitude greater then 7.0) almost always trigger tsunamis. They could be generated by the earthquake rupture process, or more frequently by the secondary triggered phenomena - landslides (submarine or surface) and/or other geodynamic phenomena - rock falls, degradation of gas hydrates, etc. the most famous water level change is described by Strabo - related to the great catastrophe. The area shows also some other expressions about tsunamis - the last one - a non seismic tsunami at 7th May, 2007 with maximum observed amplitudes of about 3 meters water level changes. Landslides The area on the north Bulgarian Black Sea coast is covered by many active landslides. They have different size, depth and activation time. Most of them are located near the coast line thus presenting huge danger about the beaches, tourist infrastructure, population and historical heritage. The most famous landslide (subsidence) is related with the I-st century BC seismic event, when a

Models for electromagnetic scattering from the sea at extremely low grazing angles

Science.gov (United States)

Wetzel, Lewis B.

1987-12-01

The present state of understanding in the field of low-grazing-angle sea scatter is reviewed and extended. The important concept of shadowing is approached from the point of view of diffraction theory, and limits in wind speed and radar frequency are found for the application of shadowing theories based on geometrical optics. The implications of shadowing function based on illumination thresholding are shown to compare favorably with a variety of experimental results. Scattering from the exposed surface peaks is treated by a composite-surface Bragg model, and by wedge models using both physical optics and the method of equivalent currents. Curiously, the scattering levels predicted by these widely different approximations are all in fairly good agreement with experimental values for moderately low grazing angles (about 5 deg), with the physical optics wedge model being superior at 1 deg. A new scattering feature, the slosh, is introduced, with scattering behavior that resembles the temporal and polarization dependence of observed low angle returns from calm water. The plume model of scattering from breaking waves (from earlier work) is discussed as a source of high-intensity Sea Spikes. It is emphasized that the prediction of low angle scattering from the sea will require considerably more information about the shape, size, and distribution of the actual scattering features.

Response of the Adriatic Sea to the atmospheric anomaly in 2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Grbec

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1 enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW in the Adriatic, and (2 extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index, although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

IODP expedition 347: Baltic Sea basin paleoenvironment and biosphere

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andrén, T; Jørgensen, Bo Barker; Cotterill, Carol

2015-01-01

-rich clay. Due to the stratified water column of the brackish Baltic Sea and the recurrent and widespread anoxia, the deeper basins harbor laminated sediments that provide a unique opportunity for high-resolution chronological studies. The Baltic Sea is a eutrophic intra-continental sea that is strongly...... degassing upon core recovery. The depth distributions of conservative sea water ions still reflected the transition at the end of the last glaciation from fresh-water clays to Holocene brackish mud. High-resolution sampling and analyses of interstitial water chemistry revealed the intensive mineralization......The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) expedition 347 cored sediments from different set- tings of the Baltic Sea covering the last glacial–interglacial cycle. The main aim was to study the geological development of the Baltic Sea in relation to the extreme climate variability of the region...

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

Science.gov (United States)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

2016-11-22

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

2016-01-01

Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

Sea Ice Microorganisms: Environmental Constraints and Extracellular Responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jody W. Deming

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Inherent to sea ice, like other high latitude environments, is the strong seasonality driven by changes in insolation throughout the year. Sea-ice organisms are exposed to shifting, sometimes limiting, conditions of temperature and salinity. An array of adaptations to survive these and other challenges has been acquired by those organisms that inhabit the ice. One key adaptive response is the production of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS, which play multiple roles in the entrapment, retention and survival of microorganisms in sea ice. In this concept paper we consider two main areas of sea-ice microbiology: the physico-chemical properties that define sea ice as a microbial habitat, imparting particular advantages and limits; and extracellular responses elicited in microbial inhabitants as they exploit or survive these conditions. Emphasis is placed on protective strategies used in the face of fluctuating and extreme environmental conditions in sea ice. Gaps in knowledge and testable hypotheses are identified for future research.

Modifying alcohol expectancies of Hispanic children: examining the effects of expectancy-targeted, developmentally congruous prevention videos.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstein, Allison; Lisman, Stephen A; Johnson, Matthew D

2015-03-01

Children's expectations about the effects of alcohol consumption are known to predict the amount of alcohol they consume as adults. Previous research has used videotaped interventions to modify children's alcohol expectancies and found that puppet actors had the expected effect of decreasing children's positive alcohol expectancies, whereas adult actors did not. The current study sought to enhance the methods and outcomes of previous research by developing brief prevention videos that focus on pre-selected negative and sedating alcohol expectancies and include youth actors and age-relevant scenarios. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design (actor's age [youth or adult] × scenario relevance [youth or adult]), we examined the alcohol expectancies of 183 Hispanic third-, fourth-, and fifth-grade students (50% girls) in a public school setting. Expectancies were assessed before, immediately following the intervention, and 1 month later. The intervention consisted of four 8-minute videos based on beliefs associated with expectancies related to low alcohol consumption and a control group video about school bus safety. Positive alcohol expectancies were significantly lower directly after the intervention than at baseline. At 1-month follow-up, this effect decreased but was still significant. The current study adds to existing findings that expectancies can be modified in children, using interventions that are extremely brief, low-cost, and linked to research in children's cognitive and social development. In addition, it appears that children of different ages and genders respond differently to varying components of prevention media.

Extreme temperature and oil contamination shape the relative abundance of copepod species in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

is of north Atlantic origin. Pyrene is one of the most toxic components of crude oil to marine copepods. The temperatures of 2, 6 and 10°C represent the mean sea water temperature, the 4°C increase in mean temperature by 2100 as predicted by IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (2013) and the extreme sea water temperature...

Atmospheric Forcing of the Winter Air–Sea Heat Fluxes over the Northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Abualnaja, Yasser; Josey, Simon A.; Bower, Amy; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Kontoyiannis, Harilaos; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2013-01-01

The influence of the atmospheric circulation on the winter air–sea heat fluxes over the northern Red Sea is investigated during the period 1985–2011. The analysis based on daily heat flux values reveals that most of the net surface heat exchange variability depends on the behavior of the turbulent components of the surface flux (the sum of the latent and sensible heat). The large-scale composite sea level pressure (SLP) maps corresponding to turbulent flux minima and maxima show distinct atmospheric circulation patterns associated with each case. In general, extreme heat loss (with turbulent flux lower than −400 W m−2) over the northern Red Sea is observed when anticyclonic conditions prevail over an area extending from the Mediterranean Sea to eastern Asia along with a recession of the equatorial African lows system. Subcenters of high pressure associated with this pattern generate the required steep SLP gradient that enhances the wind magnitude and transfers cold and dry air masses from higher latitudes. Conversely, turbulent flux maxima (heat loss minimization with values from −100 to −50 W m−2) are associated with prevailing low pressures over the eastern Mediterranean and an extended equatorial African low that reaches the southern part of the Red Sea. In this case, a smooth SLP field over the northern Red Sea results in weak winds over the area that in turn reduce the surface heat loss. At the same time, southerlies blowing along the main axis of the Red Sea transfer warm and humid air northward, favoring heat flux maxima.

Atmospheric Forcing of the Winter Air–Sea Heat Fluxes over the Northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.

2013-03-01

The influence of the atmospheric circulation on the winter air–sea heat fluxes over the northern Red Sea is investigated during the period 1985–2011. The analysis based on daily heat flux values reveals that most of the net surface heat exchange variability depends on the behavior of the turbulent components of the surface flux (the sum of the latent and sensible heat). The large-scale composite sea level pressure (SLP) maps corresponding to turbulent flux minima and maxima show distinct atmospheric circulation patterns associated with each case. In general, extreme heat loss (with turbulent flux lower than −400 W m−2) over the northern Red Sea is observed when anticyclonic conditions prevail over an area extending from the Mediterranean Sea to eastern Asia along with a recession of the equatorial African lows system. Subcenters of high pressure associated with this pattern generate the required steep SLP gradient that enhances the wind magnitude and transfers cold and dry air masses from higher latitudes. Conversely, turbulent flux maxima (heat loss minimization with values from −100 to −50 W m−2) are associated with prevailing low pressures over the eastern Mediterranean and an extended equatorial African low that reaches the southern part of the Red Sea. In this case, a smooth SLP field over the northern Red Sea results in weak winds over the area that in turn reduce the surface heat loss. At the same time, southerlies blowing along the main axis of the Red Sea transfer warm and humid air northward, favoring heat flux maxima.

Analysis of experimental data: The average shape of extreme wave forces on monopile foundations and the NewForce model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

2017-01-01

Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values are co...... to the average shapes. For more nonlinear wave shapes, higher order terms has to be considered in order for the NewForce model to be able to predict the expected shapes.......Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values...... are compared across the sea states. It is found that the force shapes show a clear similarity when grouped after the values of the normalised peak force, F/(ρghR2), normalised depth h/(gT2p) and presented in a normalised time scale t/Ta. For the largest force events, slamming can be seen as a distinct ‘hat...

Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Beniston, Martin

2018-03-10

This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Greenan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

Zooplankton at deep Red Sea brine pools

KAUST Repository

Kaartvedt, Stein

2016-03-02

The deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea comprise unique, complex and extreme habitats. These environments are too harsh for metazoans, while the brine–seawater interface harbors dense microbial populations. We investigated the adjacent pelagic fauna at two brine pools using net tows, video records from a remotely operated vehicle and submerged echosounders. Waters just above the brine pool of Atlantis II Deep (2000 m depth) appeared depleted of macrofauna. In contrast, the fauna appeared to be enriched at the Kebrit Deep brine–seawater interface (1466 m).

The radioactivity of the sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, M.I.; Rose, K.S.B.

1990-01-01

The radioactivity in the world's surface sea water averages 13.6 Bq/kg of water. Over 88% of this activity arises from a single natural radionuclide, 40 K, and 7% of the remainder results from nuclear weapon test fallout. Variations in the radioactivity occur due to changes in salinity, weapon test fallout and discharges of artificial radionuclides, and are examined here on the basis of published measurements. The most radioactive sea identified by these measurements is the Dead Sea, which averages 178 Bq/kg due to its high salinity. Other enclosed, highly saline waters can be expected to have similar levels. The radioactivity in open seas varies within a much narrower range, generally within 20% of the world average. The highest averages are found in the Persian Gulf (22 Bq/kg), the Red Sea (15 Bq/kg) and the Eastern Mediterranean (14.6 Bq/kg). The Irish Sea averaged 13.7 Bq/kg in 1987, with the effect of the Sellafield discharges being partly offset by lower than average salinity. Although higher levels occurred in the Irish Sea during the 1970s when the Sellafield discharges were higher, the average level has always been much less than that in the Dead Sea, so that the Irish Sea has never been the most radioactive sea in the world. Exceptionally low levels of radioactivity (4 Bq/kg) occur in the Baltic Sea due to dilution by fresh water. (author)

Acclimatization to extreme heat

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project. Launch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyrolle, F.; Charmasson, S.; Masson, O.

2005-01-01

Due to the drastic decrease in artificial radioactivity levels from primary sources such as atmospheric fallout or industrial releases, radioactive storages constituted in the past within several environmental compartments act today as non negligible secondary sources. These delayed sources are particularly active during extreme weather or climatic events such as rainfalls or atmospheric deposits, floods, storms, etc...that may remove important mass, generate activity levels higher than the predicted ones from modeling based on mean transfer process, and produce in a couple of hours or days fluxes similar to those accrued over several month or years. Extreme aims at assessing the consequences on man and its environment of natural events that generate extreme radioactive stocks and/or fluxes within several environmental compartments (atmosphere, soils, rivers, coastal marine environment and deep sea areas). (authors)

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term and Extreme Value Estimation of Wind and Sea Conditions for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Wave energy power plants are expected to become one of the major future contribution to the sustainable electricity production. Optimal design of wave energy power plants is associated with modeling of physical, statistical, measurement and model uncertainties. This paper presents stochastic models...... for the significant wave height, the mean zero-crossing wave period and the wind speed for long-term and extreme estimations. The long-term estimation focuses on annual statistical distributions, the inter-annual variation of distribution parameters and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of data...

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

A heavy sea fog event over the Yellow Sea in March 2005: Analysis and numerical modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Shanhong; Lin, Hang; Shen, Biao; Fu, Gang

2007-02-01

In this paper, a heavy sea fog episode that occurred over the Yellow Sea on 9 March 2005 is investigated. The sea fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundred kilometers at its mature stage, reduced visibility along the Shandong Peninsula coast to 100 m or much less at some sites. Satellite images, surface observations and soundings at islands and coasts, and analyses from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) are used to describe and analyze this event. The analysis indicates that this sea fog can be categorized as advection cooling fog. The main features of this sea fog including fog area and its movement are reasonably reproduced by the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Model results suggest that the formation and evolution of this event can be outlined as: (1) southerly warm/moist advection of low-level air resulted in a strong sea-surface-based inversion with a thickness of about 600 m; (2) when the inversion moved from the warmer East Sea to the colder Yellow Sea, a thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) gradually formed at the base of the inversion while the sea fog grew in response to cooling and moistening by turbulence mixing; (3) the sea fog developed as the TIBL moved northward and (4) strong northerly cold and dry wind destroyed the TIBL and dissipated the sea fog. The principal findings of this study are that sea fog forms in response to relatively persistent southerly warm/moist wind and a cold sea surface, and that turbulence mixing by wind shear is the primary mechanism for the cooling and moistening the marine layer. In addition, the study of sensitivity experiments indicates that deterministic numerical modeling offers a promising approach to the prediction of sea fog over the Yellow Sea but it may be more efficient to consider ensemble numerical modeling because of the extreme sensitivity to model input.

Assessing extreme sea levels due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

Science.gov (United States)

Muis, Sanne; Lin, Ning; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Vatvani, Deepak; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

provide reliable probabilities of surge levels for the entire Atlantic basin. References Demuth, J., DeMaria, M., and Knaff, J.A. (2006). Improvement of advanced microwave sounder unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. Journal of Applied Meteorology., 45, pp. 1573-1581. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. and Risi, C. (2006). A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), pp.299-314. Holland, G.J. (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8), pp.1212-1218. Lin, N. and D. Chavas (2012). On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 117. doi:10.1029/2011jd017126. Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7(7:11969), 1-11.

Resonance properties of tidal channels with multiple retention basins: role of adjacent sea

Science.gov (United States)

Roos, Pieter C.; Schuttelaars, Henk M.

2015-03-01

We present an idealised model of the tidal response in a main channel with multiple secondary basins, co-oscillating with an adjacent sea. The sea is represented as a semi-infinite strip of finite width, anywhere between the limits of a channel extension (narrow) and a half-plane (wide). The sea geometry controls the extent to which radiative damping takes place and hence the type of conditions that effectively apply at the channel mouth. These conditions range between the two extremes of prescribing elevation (deep sea limit) and prescribing the incoming wave (sea as channel extension of the same depth, as done in an earlier study). The closer to this first extreme, the stronger the oscillations in the secondary basins may feed back onto the channel mouth and thus produce an amplified or weakened response in the system as a whole. The possibly resonant response is explained by analysing the additional waves that emerge on either side of the entrance of the secondary basin. Finally, we show that the simultaneous presence of two secondary basins may amplify or weaken the accumulated responses to these basins individually.

The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

Science.gov (United States)

Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

2018-04-01

Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2016-04-01

With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

Occurrence of 1 ka-old corals on an uplifted reef terrace in west Luzon, Philippines: Implications for a prehistoric extreme wave event in the South China Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Noelynna T.; Maxwell, Kathrine V.; Tsutsumi, Hiroyuki; Chou, Yu-Chen; Duan, Fucai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Satake, Kenji

2017-12-01

Recent 230Th dating of fossil corals in west Luzon has provided new insights on the emergence of late Quaternary marine terraces that fringe west Luzon Island facing the Manila Trench. Apart from regional sea level changes, accumulated uplift from aseismic and seismic processes may have influenced the emergence of sea level indicators such as coral terraces and notches. Varied elevations of middle-to-late Holocene coral terraces along the west Luzon coasts reveal the differential uplift that is probably associated with the movement of local onland faults or upper-plate structures across the Manila Trench forearc basin. In Badoc Island, offshore west of Luzon mainland, we found notably young fossil corals, dated at 945.1 ± 4.6 years BP and 903.1 ± 3.9 years BP, on top of a 5-m-high reef platform. To constrain the mechanism of emergence or emplacement of these fossil corals, we use field geomorphic data and wave inundation models to constrain an extreme wave event that affected west Luzon about 1000 years ago. Our preliminary tectonic and tsunami models show that a megathrust rupture will likely lead to subsidence of a large part of the west Luzon coast, while permanent coastal uplift is attributed to an offshore upper-plate rupture in the northern Manila Trench forearc region. The modeled source fault ruptures and tsunami lead to a maximum wave height of more than 3 m and inundation distance as far as 2 km along the coasts of western and northern Luzon. While emplacement of coral boulders by an unusually strong typhoon is also likely, modeled storm surge heights along west Luzon do not exceed 2 m even with Typhoon Haiyan characteristics. Whether tsunami or unusually strong typhoon, the occurrence of a prehistoric extreme wave event in west Luzon remains an important issue in future studies of coastal hazards in the South China Sea region.

Molecular analyses reveal high levels of eukaryotic richness associated with enigmatic deep-sea protists (Komokiacea)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lecroq, Beatrice; Gooday, Andrew John; Cedhagen, Tomas

2009-01-01

Komokiaceans are testate agglutinated protists, extremely diverse and abundant in the deep sea. About 40 species are described and share the same main morpholog- ical feature: a test consisting of narrow branching tubules forming a complex system. In some species, the interstices between the tubu......Komokiaceans are testate agglutinated protists, extremely diverse and abundant in the deep sea. About 40 species are described and share the same main morpholog- ical feature: a test consisting of narrow branching tubules forming a complex system. In some species, the interstices between...... suggest strongly that komokiaceans, and probably many other large testate protists, provide a habitat structure for a large spectrum of eukaryotes, significantly contributing to maintaining the biodiversity of micro- and meiofaunal communities in the deep sea....

Thermal Limits and Thresholds of Red Sea Biota

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica

2018-05-01

As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the effect of temperature on marine organisms becomes highly relevant. The Red Sea is the warmest sea and is rapidly warming with current surface temperatures (28 – 34 °C) already exceeding those of most tropical systems. This has major consequences for organisms that may already find themselves at their thermal limits. The aim of this project was to define the thermal limits and thresholds of certain Red Sea species. Firstly, to better understand the thermal regimes of the Red Sea, we looked at decadal trends in maximum sea surface temperature across the basin. Then, we tested the thermal capacities of Red Sea mangroves and zooplankton, two key ecological groups, by performing thermal stress experiments in the laboratory. We found that the Red Sea basin is warming faster than the global average (0.17 °C decade-1), the thermal limit of mangrove propagules is between 33 and 35 °C, and the limits among the most common zooplankton groups range from 30 to 36 °C. This project gives us a better understanding of how organisms respond to extreme temperatures and how they may be affected in a future, warmer, ocean.

Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sindhu, B.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event. The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted...

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-01-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-03-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-03-27

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

Study of community leaders in a nuclear host community: local issues, expectations and support and opposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bronfman, B.H.

1977-08-01

A study of community leaders was undertaken in Hartsville, Tennessee, site of the TVA Hartsville Nuclear Power Plant currently under construction. Leaders were found to be extremely supportive of the plant and of TVA's efforts to mitigate impacts expected to result from construction. Like their citizen counterparts, leaders expect economic benefits and some growth-related disruption to occur as a result of the plant, while environmental impacts are seen as extremely unlikely to occur. Plant-related issues, such as housing availability and traffic congestion, dominate leaders' thinking about current issues. These issues are expected to continue to be important in the future, and new issues dealing with growth and planning, employment and taxation are expected to arise

Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...

On extreme atmospheric and marine nitrogen fluxes and chlorophyll-a levels in the Kattegat Strait

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. B. Hasager

2003-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective analysis is carried out to investigate the importance of the vertical fluxes of nitrogen to the marine sea surface layer in which high chlorophyll a levels may cause blooms of harmful algae and subsequent turn over and oxygen depletion at the bottom of the sea. Typically nitrogen is the limiting factor for phytoplankton in the Kattegat Strait during summer periods (May to August and the major nitrogen inputs come from the atmosphere and deep-water entrainment. The extreme reoccurrence values of nitrogen from atmospheric wet and dry deposition and deep-water flux entrainments are calculated by the periodic maximum method and the results are successfully compared to a map of chlorophyll return periods based on in-situ observations. The one-year return of extreme atmospheric wet deposition is around 60 mg N m-2 day-1 and 30 mg N m-2 day-1 for deep-water entrainment. Atmospheric nitrogen dry deposition is insignificant in the context of algal blooms. At longer time-scales e.g. at 10-year return, the nitrogen deep-water entrainment is larger than the extreme of atmospheric wet deposition. This indicates that the pool of nitrogen released from the sea bottom by deep-water entrainment forced by high winds greatly exceeds the atmospheric pool of nitrogen washed out by precipitation. At the frontal zone of the Kattegat Strait and Skagerrak, the nitrogen deep-water entrainment is very high and this explains the high 10-year return chlorophyll level at 8 mg m-3 in the Kattegat Strait. In the southern part, the extreme chlorophyll level is only 4 mg m-3 according to the statistics of a multi-year time-series of water samples. The chlorophyll level varies greatly in time and space as documented by a series of SeaWiFS satellite maps (OC4v4 algorithm of chlorophyll ScanFish and buoy observations from an experimental period in the Kattegat Strait. It is recommended to sample in-situ chlorophyll observation collocated in time to the satellite

Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models

OpenAIRE

Koenigk, T.; Devasthale, A.; Karlsson, K.-G.

2014-01-01

Spatial and temporal variations of summer sea ice albedo over the Arctic are analyzed using an ensemble of historical CMIP5 model simulations. The results are compared to the CLARA-SAL product that is based on long-term satellite observations. The summer sea ice albedo varies substantially among CMIP5 models, and many models show large biases compared to the CLARA-SAL product. Single summer months show an extreme spread of ice albedo among models; July values vary between 0....

Price expectations and petroleum development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

1991-01-01

In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

Patterns of ecological specialization among microbial populations in the Red Sea and diverse oligotrophic marine environments

KAUST Repository

Thompson, Luke R; Field, Chris; Romanuk, Tamara; Ngugi, David; Siam, Rania; El Dorry, Hamza; Stingl, Ulrich

2013-01-01

, temperatures, and light levels at the extreme end for the surface ocean, and low nutrient concentrations, yet no metagenomic studies have been done there. The Red Sea (high salinity, high light, low N and P) compares favorably with the Mediterranean Sea (high

Climate change and extreme events in weather

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa

2015-05-15

Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan L Sriver

Full Text Available Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1 Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2 Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making

Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

Ecosystem Services of Avicennia marina in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Almahasheer, Hanan

2016-01-01

The Red Sea is an arid environment, without riverine inputs, oligotrophic waters and extreme temperature and salinity. Avicennia marina is the dominant vegetation in the shores of the Red Sea. However, little is known about their distribution, dynamics, and services. Therefore, the aim of this Ph.D. was to obtain the basic information needed to evaluate their role in the coastal ecosystems and quantify their services. With that objective we 1) estimated the past and present distribution of mangroves in the Red Sea, 2) investigated the growth, leave production and floration 3) examined the growth limiting factors 4) measured the nutrients and heavy metal dynamics in the leaves and 5) estimated carbon sequestration. We found an increase of about 12% in the last 41 years, which contrasts with global trends of decrease. The extreme conditions in the Red Sea contributed to limit their growth resulting in stunted trees. Hence, we surveyed Central Red Sea mangroves to estimate their node production with an average of 9.59 node y-1 then converted that number into time to have a plastochrone interval of 38 days. As mangroves are taller in the southern Red Sea where both temperature and nutrients are higher than the Central Red Sea, we assessed nutrient status Avicennia marina propagules and naturally growing leaves to find the leaves low in nutrient concentrations (N < 1.5 %, P < 0.09 %, Fe < 0.06) and that nutrients are reabsorbed before shedding the leaves (69%, 72% and 35% for N, P, and Fe respectively). As a result, we conducted a fertilization experiment (N, P, Fe and combinations) to find that iron additions alone led to significant growth responses. Moreover, we estimated their leaf production and used our previous estimates of both the total cover mangrove in the Red Sea along with plastochrone interval to assess their total nutrients flux per year to be 2414 t N, 139 t P and 98 t Fe. We found them to sequester 34 g m-2 y-1, which imply 4590 tons of carbon

Ecosystem Services of Avicennia marina in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Almahasheer, Hanan

2016-12-01

The Red Sea is an arid environment, without riverine inputs, oligotrophic waters and extreme temperature and salinity. Avicennia marina is the dominant vegetation in the shores of the Red Sea. However, little is known about their distribution, dynamics, and services. Therefore, the aim of this Ph.D. was to obtain the basic information needed to evaluate their role in the coastal ecosystems and quantify their services. With that objective we 1) estimated the past and present distribution of mangroves in the Red Sea, 2) investigated the growth, leave production and floration 3) examined the growth limiting factors 4) measured the nutrients and heavy metal dynamics in the leaves and 5) estimated carbon sequestration. We found an increase of about 12% in the last 41 years, which contrasts with global trends of decrease. The extreme conditions in the Red Sea contributed to limit their growth resulting in stunted trees. Hence, we surveyed Central Red Sea mangroves to estimate their node production with an average of 9.59 node y-1 then converted that number into time to have a plastochrone interval of 38 days. As mangroves are taller in the southern Red Sea where both temperature and nutrients are higher than the Central Red Sea, we assessed nutrient status Avicennia marina propagules and naturally growing leaves to find the leaves low in nutrient concentrations (N < 1.5 %, P < 0.09 %, Fe < 0.06) and that nutrients are reabsorbed before shedding the leaves (69%, 72% and 35% for N, P, and Fe respectively). As a result, we conducted a fertilization experiment (N, P, Fe and combinations) to find that iron additions alone led to significant growth responses. Moreover, we estimated their leaf production and used our previous estimates of both the total cover mangrove in the Red Sea along with plastochrone interval to assess their total nutrients flux per year to be 2414 t N, 139 t P and 98 t Fe. We found them to sequester 34 g m-2 y-1, which imply 4590 tons of carbon

A Floating Offshore Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wehmeyer, Christof

is an expected maximum wave in accordance with a Rayleigh distribution. The maximum waves are numerically represented by embedded Stream-function waves. The author compares the resulting bow tendon loading of the hybrid model to the measured responses, as a key performance indicator. 90% to 95% of the loads show...... a satisfying match, though the hybrid model over predicts the remaining 5% to 10% maximum loads by 32%, 34% and 29% for a linear irregular sea state, a nonlinear irregular sea state and a nonlinear irregular sea state with an embedded Stream-function wave, respectively. The limited number of sea states during...... important aspects, which make them non-conservative in use for FOWT: (A) The offshore wind industry intends to install floating structures at much lower water depth (from 50m onwards), than the offshore oil & gas industry (from 300m onwards). In such cases a linear wave theory approach might...

Breather Rogue Waves in Random Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Ma, Q. W.; Yan, S.; Chabchoub, A.

2018-01-01

Rogue or freak waves are extreme wave events that have heights exceeding 8 times the standard deviation of surrounding waves and emerge, for instance, in the ocean as well as in other physical dispersive wave guides, such as in optical fibers. One effective and convenient way to model such an extreme dynamics in laboratory environments within a controlled framework as well as for short process time and length scales is provided through the breather formalism. Breathers are pulsating localized structures known to model extreme waves in several nonlinear dispersive media in which the initial underlying process is assumed to be narrow banded. On the other hand, several recent studies suggest that breathers can also persist in more complex environments, such as in random seas, beyond the attributed physical limitations. In this work, we study the robustness of the Peregrine breather (PB) embedded in Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) configurations using fully nonlinear hydrodynamic numerical simulations in order to validate its practicalness for ocean engineering applications. We provide a specific range for both the spectral bandwidth of the dynamical process as well as the background wave steepness and, thus, quantify the applicability of the PB in modeling rogue waves in realistic oceanic conditions. Our results may motivate analogous studies in fields of physics such as optics and plasma to quantify the limitations of exact weakly nonlinear models, such as solitons and breathers, within the framework of the fully nonlinear governing equations of the corresponding medium.

Evolution of genomic diversity and sex at extreme environments: Fungal life under hypersaline Dead Sea stress

Science.gov (United States)

Kis-Papo, Tamar; Kirzhner, Valery; Wasser, Solomon P.; Nevo, Eviatar

2003-01-01

We have found that genomic diversity is generally positively correlated with abiotic and biotic stress levels (1–3). However, beyond a high-threshold level of stress, the diversity declines to a few adapted genotypes. The Dead Sea is the harshest planetary hypersaline environment (340 g·liter–1 total dissolved salts, ≈10 times sea water). Hence, the Dead Sea is an excellent natural laboratory for testing the “rise and fall” pattern of genetic diversity with stress proposed in this article. Here, we examined genomic diversity of the ascomycete fungus Aspergillus versicolor from saline, nonsaline, and hypersaline Dead Sea environments. We screened the coding and noncoding genomes of A. versicolor isolates by using >600 AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) markers (equal to loci). Genomic diversity was positively correlated with stress, culminating in the Dead Sea surface but dropped drastically in 50- to 280-m-deep seawater. The genomic diversity pattern paralleled the pattern of sexual reproduction of fungal species across the same southward gradient of increasing stress in Israel. This parallel may suggest that diversity and sex are intertwined intimately according to the rise and fall pattern and adaptively selected by natural selection in fungal genome evolution. Future large-scale verification in micromycetes will define further the trajectories of diversity and sex in the rise and fall pattern. PMID:14645702

Sea ice thickness measurements collected during the LOMROG 2007 and 2009 expeditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René; Hanson, Susanne

and 2009 we have collected a unique data set of late summer sea ice thickness, freeboard height and snow depth from the high Arctic Ocean during the time of the annual minimum sea ice extent. The data were collected by on-the-ground drilling and EM measurements. Here we give a brief overview of the data......According to scientific measurements, the Arctic sea ice extent has declined dramatically over the past thirty years, with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season. Other observations indicate that the sea ice has become thinner and perennial ice less widely distributed...... collection, as well as the results including the freeboard-to-sea-ice thickness conversion factor, which is used when interpreting freeboard heights measured by remote sensing....

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal Dean

2016-01-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hectopascal heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10 percent of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

Deep-sea coral research and technology program: Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative final report

Science.gov (United States)

Rooper, Chris; Stone, Robert P.; Etnoyer, Peter; Conrath, Christina; Reynolds, Jennifer; Greene, H. Gary; Williams, Branwen; Salgado, Enrique; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Waller, Rhian G.; Demopoulos, Amanda W.J.

2017-01-01

Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska’s marine waters. In some places, such as the central and western Aleutian Islands, deep-sea coral and sponge resources can be extremely diverse and may rank among the most abundant deep-sea coral and sponge communities in the world. Many different species of fishes and invertebrates are associated with deep-sea coral and sponge communities in Alaska. Because of their biology, these benthic invertebrates are potentially impacted by climate change and ocean acidification. Deepsea coral and sponge ecosystems are also vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities. Because of the size and scope of Alaska’s continental shelf and slope, the vast majority of the area has not been visually surveyed for deep-sea corals and sponges. NOAA’s Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program (DSCRTP) sponsored a field research program in the Alaska region between 2012–2015, referred to hereafter as the Alaska Initiative. The priorities for Alaska were derived from ongoing data needs and objectives identified by the DSCRTP, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC), and Essential Fish Habitat-Environmental Impact Statement (EFH-EIS) process.This report presents the results of 15 projects conducted using DSCRTP funds from 2012-2015. Three of the projects conducted as part of the Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative included dedicated at-sea cruises and fieldwork spread across multiple years. These projects were the eastern Gulf of Alaska Primnoa pacifica study, the Aleutian Islands mapping study, and the Gulf of Alaska fish productivity study. In all, there were nine separate research cruises carried out with a total of 109 at-sea days conducting research. The remaining projects either used data and samples collected by the three major fieldwork projects or were piggy-backed onto existing research programs at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC).

Total Water Level Fun Facts: The Relative Contribution of Extreme Total Water Levels Along the US West Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.

2016-02-01

In the fall of 2014, parts of the US West Coast endured some of the highest monthly mean sea level anomalies on record, likely due to the presence of "the blob" (Bond et al., 2015), an anomalously warm water mass in the NE Pacific. However, despite the significantly above average water levels, the coastline experienced only marginal coastal flooding and erosion hazards because the ensuing winter lacked significant storms, underscoring the fact that extreme total water levels (TWLs) are compound events. To better understand how several individual processes combine to cause devastating coastal hazards, we investigate the relative contribution that each component (waves, tides, and non-tidal residuals) has on extreme TWLs on sandy beaches. Water level records along the US West Coast are decomposed into mean sea level, astronomical tide, and non-tidal residuals (NTRs). The NTR is further split into an intra-annual seasonal signal, monthly mean sea level anomalies (inter-annual variability), and meteorological surge. TWL time series are then generated by combining water levels with wave runup, computed using wave data and beach morphology. We use this data-driven, structural function approach to investigate the spatial variability of the relative contribution of each component to the maximum TWL event on record. We also use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (Serafin and Ruggiero, 2014) to generate multiple, synthetic TWL records, to explore the relative contribution of each component to extreme TWL return levels. We assess the sensitivity to local beach morphology by computing TWLs for a range of observed beach slopes. Extreme TWLs are higher in Oregon and Washington than in California. Wave runup typically comprises > 50% of the TWL signal, while NTRs often compose < 5%, illustrating the importance wave climate has on the potential for extreme TWLs. While waves are typically larger in the North, California experiences greater contributions to extreme TWLs from

Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

Science.gov (United States)

Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

Environmental safety evaluation in test sea disposal of low-level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

The study results on the environmental safety in the test sea disposal of low-level wastes by Subcommittee on Radioactive Waste Safety Technology in Nuclear Safety Commission are given in connection with the test disposal of radioactive wastes into sea reported by the Nuclear Safety Bureau. The Subcommittee concludes that the effect of the test disposal of radioactive wastes into sea on the environment is extremely small. The contents are as follows. The full text of the report; attached data, (1) prediction of the concentrations of radioactive nuclides in sea, (2) calculation of the concentrations of radioactive nuclides in marine life with biological paths, and (3) estimation of exposure dose in general people; references (1) radiation exposure of the personnel engaged in sea disposal, (2) the effect of a sea disaster during ocean transport. (J.P.N.)

Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing on observed mean and extreme sea level pressure trends over the Mediterranean Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

Foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2017-04-01

The significant drying up of the Dead Sea over the past 40 years has led to an increase in an exposed area contributing to local dust pollution. Measurements show that, sometimes, in the Dead Sea valley, dust pollution can reach extreme concentrations up to several thousands of micrograms per cubic meters. Our analysis of a meteorological situation shows that a foehn phenomenon can be a causal factor for the aforementioned extreme local dust concentration. This foehn phenomenon creates strong warm and dry winds, which are accompanied by air turbulence and temperature inversion. In our study, foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation were analyzed over the Judean Mountains ( 1000 m) and over the Dead Sea valley (-420 m), using high-resolution numerical simulations and in-situ observations at meteorological stations located across the mountain ridge. An extreme dust episode occurring on March 22, 2013, was analyzed, which was characterized by measured surface dust concentrations of up to 7000 µg m-3 in the Dead Sea valley. We simulated this foehn phenomenon with the 3-km resolution COSMO-ART model. Our analysis has shown that the foehn phenomenon could be observed even over the relatively low Judean Mountains. This analysis was based on various meteorological, pyranometer, radar, and aerosol measurements together with high-resolution model data. In the Dead Sea valley, the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) did not coincide with the maximum surface dust concentration. This lack of coincidence indicates difficulties in using satellite-based AOD for initializing dust concentration within numerical forecast systems over this region with complex terrain. In the western Dead Sea valley, strong foehn winds of over 20 m/s were accompanied by maximal air turbulence leading to maximal local dust emissions. Thus, the model showed that, by creating significant turbulence, the foehn phenomenon intensified the saltation (bombardment) mechanism

The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Abualnaja, Yasser

2015-04-01

Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Abualnaja, Yasser; Churchill, James H.; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard

2015-01-01

Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

Predictability of summer extreme precipitation days over eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

2017-08-01

Extreme precipitation events have severe impacts on human activity and natural environment, but prediction of extreme precipitation events remains a considerable challenge. The present study aims to explore the sources of predictability and to estimate the predictability of the summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over eastern China. Based on the region- and season-dependent variability of EPDs, all stations over eastern China are divided into two domains: South China (SC) and northern China (NC). Two domain-averaged EPDs indices during their local high EPDs seasons (May-June for SC and July-August for NC) are therefore defined. The simultaneous lower boundary anomalies associated with each EPDs index are examined, and we find: (a) the increased EPDs over SC are related to a rapid decaying El Nino and controlled by Philippine Sea anticyclone anomalies in May-June; (b) the increased EPDs over NC are accompanied by a developing La Nina and anomalous zonal sea level pressure contrast between the western North Pacific subtropical high and East Asian low in July-August. Tracking back the origins of these boundary anomalies, one or two physically meaningful predictors are detected for each regional EPDs index. The causative relationships between the predictors and the corresponding EPDs over each region are discussed using lead-lag correlation analyses. Using these selected predictors, a set of Physics-based Empirical models is derived. The 13-year (2001-2013) independent forecast shows significant temporal correlation skills of 0.60 and 0.74 for the EPDs index of SC and NC, respectively, providing an estimation of the predictability for summer EPDs over eastern China.

Extreme longevity in a deep-sea vestimentiferan tubeworm and its implications for the evolution of life history strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Durkin, Alanna; Fisher, Charles R.; Cordes, Erik E.

2017-08-01

The deep sea is home to many species that have longer life spans than their shallow-water counterparts. This trend is primarily related to the decline in metabolic rates with temperature as depth increases. However, at bathyal depths, the cold-seep vestimentiferan tubeworm species Lamellibrachia luymesi and Seepiophila jonesi reach extremely old ages beyond what is predicted by the simple scaling of life span with body size and temperature. Here, we use individual-based models based on in situ growth rates to show that another species of cold-seep tubeworm found in the Gulf of Mexico, Escarpia laminata, also has an extraordinarily long life span, regularly achieving ages of 100-200 years with some individuals older than 300 years. The distribution of results from individual simulations as well as whole population simulations involving mortality and recruitment rates support these age estimates. The low 0.67% mortality rate measurements from collected populations of E. laminata are similar to mortality rates in L. luymesi and S. jonesi and play a role in evolution of the long life span of cold-seep tubeworms. These results support longevity theory, which states that in the absence of extrinsic mortality threats, natural selection will select for individuals that senesce slower and reproduce continually into their old age.

Food web structure and vulnerability of a deep-sea ecosystem in the NW Mediterranean Sea

OpenAIRE

Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Christensen, Villy; Company, Joan B.; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Sarda, Francisco

2013-01-01

There is increasing fishing pressure on the continental margins of the oceans, and this raises concerns about the vulnerability of the ecosystems thriving there. The current knowledge of the biology of deep-water fish species identifies potential reduced resilience to anthropogenic disturbance. However, there are extreme difficulties in sampling the deep sea, resulting in poorly resolved and indirectly obtained food-web relationships. Here, we modelled the flows and biomasses of a Mediterrane...

An abyssal mobilome: Viruses, plasmids and vesicles from deep-sea hydrothermal vents

OpenAIRE

Lossouarn, Julien; Dupont, Samuel; Gorlas, Aurore; Mercier, Coraline; Bienvenu, Nadege; Marguet, Evelyne; Forterre, Patrick; Geslin, Claire

2015-01-01

Mobile genetic elements (MGEs) such as viruses, plasmids, vesicles, gene transfer agents (GTAs), transposons and transpovirions, which collectively represent the mobilome, interact with cellular organisms from all three domains of life, including those thriving in the most extreme environments. While efforts have been made to better understand deep-sea vent microbial ecology, our knowledge of the mobilome associated with prokaryotes inhabiting deep-sea hydrothermal vents remains limited. Here...

Invasive Crabs in the Barents Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Brooks; Fernandez, Linda; Kourantidou, Melina

The recent invasions of the red king crab (RKC) and the snow crab (SC) in the Barents Sea represent the sorts of integrated ecological and economic shifts we may expect as climate change affects arctic seas. Economic incentives and ecological unknowns have combined to change the current...... and potentially future productivity and profitability of the Barents ecosystem in complex and interacting ways. We examine potential ecological-economic trajectories for these crabs’ continued expansions in the Arctic and how the profitability, the joint and national management structures in Norway and Russia...

Transcriptome and proteome dynamics in larvae of the barnacle Balanus Amphitrite from the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Chandramouli, Kondethimmanahalli

2015-12-15

Background The barnacle Balanus amphitrite is widely distributed in marine shallow and tidal waters, and has significant economic and ecological importance. Nauplii, the first larval stage of most crustaceans, are extremely abundant in the marine zooplankton. However, a lack of genome information has hindered elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of development, settlement and survival strategies in extreme marine environments. We sequenced and constructed the genome dataset for nauplii to obtain comprehensive larval genetic information. We also investigated iTRAQ-based protein expression patterns to reveal the molecular basis of nauplii development, and to gain information on larval survival strategies in the Red Sea marine environment. Results A nauplii larval transcript dataset, containing 92,117 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), was constructed and used as a reference for the proteome analysis. Genes related to translation, oxidative phosphorylation and cytoskeletal development were highly abundant. We observed remarkable plasticity in the proteome of Red Sea larvae. The proteins associated with development, stress responses and osmoregulation showed the most significant differences between the two larval populations studied. The synergistic overexpression of heat shock and osmoregulatory proteins may facilitate larval survival in intertidal habitats or in extreme environments. Conclusions We presented, for the first time, comprehensive transcriptome and proteome datasets for Red Sea nauplii. The datasets provide a foundation for future investigations focused on the survival mechanisms of other crustaceans in extreme marine environments.

Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Hu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-10-01

Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

Vertical distribution and migration of euphausiid species in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Wiebe, Peter H.; Bucklin, Ann; Kaartvedt, Stein; Rø stad, Anders; Blanco-Bercial, Leocadio

2016-01-01

We addressed how the extreme environmental conditions of the Red Sea impact or alter patterns of vertical distribution and vertical migration of five euphausiid species that are known from other oceans. Euphausia diomedeae was abundant and performed

Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

2011-12-01

ice breakup and later sea ice formation. Sea surface temperatures have also shown warming, where sites show significant warming particularly during August, September, and October. Satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations over the past decade have shown trends seemingly in direct response to changing sea ice conditions, with increasing trends in chlorophyll-a concentrations when sea ice declines (and vice versa). In some cases, however, satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations do not show expected changes with sea ice variability, indicating that limitations on biological productivity in this region are complex and spatially heterogeneous. An understanding of these spatial and temporal complexities impacting biological productivity is needed for the accurate prediction of how overall ecosystems may be altered with further expected warming sea surface temperatures and declines in sea ice cover.

An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

Object permanence in marine mammals using the violation of expectation procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, Rebecca; Henderson, Elizabeth

2015-03-01

Object permanence refers to the ability to process information about objects even when they are not visible. One stage of object permanence, called visible displacement, involves being able to find an object that has been fully hidden from view. Visible displacement has been demonstrated in many animal species, yet very little is known about object permanence in marine mammals. In addition, the methodology for testing visible displacement has sometimes been called into question because alternative explanations could account for subjects' success. The current study investigated visible displacement in Atlantic bottlenose dolphins and California sea lions using a methodology called violation of expectation, in which the animal's fish bucket was placed on a table surrounded on three sides by curtains. A solid screen placed in front of the bucket was then rotated in an arc from front to back. The screen was rotated either 120° (possible event) or 180° (surprising event), appearing as if the bucket disappeared. Both dolphins and sea lions looked significantly longer during the 180°, unexpected, trials than the expected event trials. Results suggest that both dolphins and sea lions pass visible displacement tests without the use of perceptual cues. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Tribute to Tom Zentall. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

The biomass of the deep-sea benthopelagic plankton

Science.gov (United States)

Wishner, K. F.

1980-04-01

Deep-sea benthopelagic plankton samples were collected with a specially designed opening-closing net system 10 to 100 m above the bottom in five different oceanic regions at depths from 1000 to 4700 m. Benthopelagic plankton biomasses decrease exponentially with depth. At 1000 m the biomass is about 1% that of the surface zooplankton, at 5000 m about 0.1%. Effects of differences in surface primary productivity on deep-sea plankton biomass are much less than the effect of depth and are detectable only in a few comparisons of extreme oceanic regions. The biomass at 10 m above the bottom is greater than that at 100 m above the bottom (in a three-sample comparison), which could be a consequence of an enriched near-bottom environment. The deep-sea plankton biomass in the Red Sea is anomalously low. This may be due to increased decomposition rates in the warm (22°C) deep Red Sea water, which prevent much detritus from reaching the deep sea. A model of organic carbon utilization in the benthic boundary layer (bottom 100 m), incorporating results from deep-sea sediment trap and respiration studies, indicates that the benthopelagic plankton use only a small amount of the organic carbon flux. A large fraction of the flux is unaccounted for by present estimates of benthic and benthopelagic respiration.

Coastal Nurseries and Their Importance for Conservation of Sea Kraits

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnet, Xavier; Brischoux, François; Bonnet, Christophe; Plichon, Patrice; Fauvel, Thomas

2014-01-01

Destruction and pollution of coral reefs threaten these marine biodiversity hot stops which shelter more than two thirds of sea snake species. Notably, in many coral reef ecosystems of the Western Pacific Ocean, large populations of sea kraits (amphibious sea snakes) have drastically declined during the past three decades. Protecting remaining healthy populations is thus essential. In New Caledonia, coral reefs shelter numerous sea krait colonies spread throughout an immense lagoon (24,000 km2). Sea kraits feed on coral fish but lay their eggs on land. However, ecological information on reproduction and juveniles is extremely fragmentary, precluding protection of key habitats for reproduction. Our 10 years mark recapture study on Yellow sea kraits (L. saintgironsi >8,700 individuals marked) revealed that most neonates aggregate in highly localized coastal sites, where they feed and grow during several months before dispersal. Hundreds of females emigrate seasonally from remote populations (>50 km away) to lay their eggs in these coastal nurseries, and then return home. Protecting these nurseries is a priority to maintain recruitment rate, and to retain sea krait populations in the future. PMID:24670985

Coastal nurseries and their importance for conservation of sea kraits.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier Bonnet

Full Text Available Destruction and pollution of coral reefs threaten these marine biodiversity hot stops which shelter more than two thirds of sea snake species. Notably, in many coral reef ecosystems of the Western Pacific Ocean, large populations of sea kraits (amphibious sea snakes have drastically declined during the past three decades. Protecting remaining healthy populations is thus essential. In New Caledonia, coral reefs shelter numerous sea krait colonies spread throughout an immense lagoon (24,000 km2. Sea kraits feed on coral fish but lay their eggs on land. However, ecological information on reproduction and juveniles is extremely fragmentary, precluding protection of key habitats for reproduction. Our 10 years mark recapture study on Yellow sea kraits (L. saintgironsi >8,700 individuals marked revealed that most neonates aggregate in highly localized coastal sites, where they feed and grow during several months before dispersal. Hundreds of females emigrate seasonally from remote populations (>50 km away to lay their eggs in these coastal nurseries, and then return home. Protecting these nurseries is a priority to maintain recruitment rate, and to retain sea krait populations in the future.

To the limit of extreme malnutrition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frølich, Jacob; Buskbjerg, Camilla Viola; Støving, Rene K

2016-01-01

Extreme malnutrition with body mass index (BMI) as low as 10 kg/m(2) is not uncommon in anorexia nervosa, with survival enabled through complex metabolic adaptations. In contrast, outcomes from hunger strikes and famines are usually fatal after weight loss to about 40% below expected body weight...... malnutrition has not previously been reported. The present case emphasizes the importance of adherence...

Extreme water level and wave estimation for nearshore of Ningde City

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Y. D.; Wang, E. K.; Xu, G. Q.

2017-08-01

The high and low design water levels are calculated by observation tidal data in sea areas of Ningde offshore wind power project from September 2010 to August 2011, with the value 318 cm and -246 cm, respectively. The extreme high and low levels are also calculated using synchronous difference ratio method based on station data from 1973 to 2005 at Sansha station. The value is 431 cm and -378 cm respectively. The design wave elements are estimated using the wave data from Beishuang Station and Pingtan station. On this basis, the SWAN wave model is applied to calculating the design wave elements in the engineering sea areas. The results show that the southern sea area is mainly affected by the wave effect on ESE, and the northern is mainly affected by the E waves. This paper is helpful and useful for design and construction of offshore and coastal engineering.

First Insights into the Viral Communities of the Deep-sea Anoxic Brines of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Antunes, Andre

2015-10-31

The deep-sea brines of the Red Sea include some of the most extreme and unique environments on Earth. They combine high salinities with increases in temperature, heavy metals, hydrostatic pressure, and anoxic conditions, creating unique settings for thriving populations of novel extremophiles. Despite a recent increase of studies focusing on these unusual biotopes, their viral communities remain unexplored. The current survey explores four metagenomic datasets obtained from different brine-seawater interface samples, focusing specifically on the diversity of their viral communities. Data analysis confirmed that the particle-attached viral communities present in the brine-seawater interfaces were diverse and generally dominated by Caudovirales, yet appearing distinct from sample to sample. With a level of caution, we report the unexpected finding of Phycodnaviridae, which infects algae and plants, and trace amounts of insect-infecting Iridoviridae. Results from Kebrit Deep revealed stratification in the viral communities present in the interface: the upper-interface was enriched with viruses associated with typical marine bacteria, while the lower-interface was enriched with haloviruses and halophages. These results provide first insights into the unexplored viral communities present in deep-sea brines of the Red Sea, representing one of the first steps for ongoing and future sampling efforts and studies.

First Insights into the Viral Communities of the Deep-sea Anoxic Brines of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Antunes, Andre; Alam, Intikhab; Simoes, Marta; Daniels, Camille Arian; Ferreira, Ari J.S.; Siam, Rania; El-Dorry, Hamza; Bajic, Vladimir B.

2015-01-01

The deep-sea brines of the Red Sea include some of the most extreme and unique environments on Earth. They combine high salinities with increases in temperature, heavy metals, hydrostatic pressure, and anoxic conditions, creating unique settings for thriving populations of novel extremophiles. Despite a recent increase of studies focusing on these unusual biotopes, their viral communities remain unexplored. The current survey explores four metagenomic datasets obtained from different brine-seawater interface samples, focusing specifically on the diversity of their viral communities. Data analysis confirmed that the particle-attached viral communities present in the brine-seawater interfaces were diverse and generally dominated by Caudovirales, yet appearing distinct from sample to sample. With a level of caution, we report the unexpected finding of Phycodnaviridae, which infects algae and plants, and trace amounts of insect-infecting Iridoviridae. Results from Kebrit Deep revealed stratification in the viral communities present in the interface: the upper-interface was enriched with viruses associated with typical marine bacteria, while the lower-interface was enriched with haloviruses and halophages. These results provide first insights into the unexplored viral communities present in deep-sea brines of the Red Sea, representing one of the first steps for ongoing and future sampling efforts and studies.

137CS in cod from Barents sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellermann, H.-J.; Kanisch, G.; Krueger, A.

2003-01-01

After publication of the Yablovkov report about dumping of radioactive waste by the former Soviet Union the Institute for Fishery Ecology has analysed fish from Barents Sea for radioactivity. In all studies 137 Cs concentrations in cod fillet showed a clear dependance from fish length. Results from an analysis of covariance for cod of 70 cm length have minor changes within Barents Sea and indicate a rapid decay to a value as is expected for marine fish which is only influenced by global fallout. (orig.)

Temperature impacts on deep-sea biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Danovaro, Roberto

2016-05-01

Temperature is considered to be a fundamental factor controlling biodiversity in marine ecosystems, but precisely what role temperature plays in modulating diversity is still not clear. The deep ocean, lacking light and in situ photosynthetic primary production, is an ideal model system to test the effects of temperature changes on biodiversity. Here we synthesize current knowledge on temperature-diversity relationships in the deep sea. Our results from both present and past deep-sea assemblages suggest that, when a wide range of deep-sea bottom-water temperatures is considered, a unimodal relationship exists between temperature and diversity (that may be right skewed). It is possible that temperature is important only when at relatively high and low levels but does not play a major role in the intermediate temperature range. Possible mechanisms explaining the temperature-biodiversity relationship include the physiological-tolerance hypothesis, the metabolic hypothesis, island biogeography theory, or some combination of these. The possible unimodal relationship discussed here may allow us to identify tipping points at which on-going global change and deep-water warming may increase or decrease deep-sea biodiversity. Predicted changes in deep-sea temperatures due to human-induced climate change may have more adverse consequences than expected considering the sensitivity of deep-sea ecosystems to temperature changes. © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zandersen, Marianne

2011-01-01

Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea – value of water quality improvements & risk perceptions Dr. Marianne Zandersen1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University Abstract The Baltic Sea is heavily eutrofied and the trend has gone from bad to worse. The hypoxic zone has increased about 4...... of the water column to the bottom waters/deepwater. The expected effects include a slowing down of the sediment release from the bottom and improvement of the possibilities for aerobic bacterial decomposition and over time for the establishment of fauna. The projects test a bio-engineered approach to speeding...

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Biota-hydrology interactions during the Holocene in Florida

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lammertsma, E.I.

2012-01-01

As the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as global temperatures continue to increase, it is expected that sea level will rise and more extreme precipitation events will occur in the future. Moreover, warmer sea surface temperature may lead to an intensification of tropical

Microbial ecology of deep-sea hypersaline anoxic basins

KAUST Repository

Merlino, Giuseppe

2018-05-09

Deep hypersaline anoxic basins (DHABs) are unique water bodies occurring within fractures at the bottom of the sea, where the dissolution of anciently buried evaporites created dense anoxic brines that are separated by a chemocline/pycnocline from the overlying oxygenated deep-seawater column. DHABs have been described in the Gulf of Mexico, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Red Sea. They are characterized by prolonged historical separation of the brines from the upper water column due to lack of mixing and by extreme conditions of salinity, anoxia, and relatively high hydrostatic pressure and temperatures. Due to these combined selection factors, unique microbial assemblages thrive in these polyextreme ecosystems. The topological localization of the different taxa in the brine-seawater transition zone coupled with the metabolic interactions and niche adaptations determine the metabolic functioning and biogeochemistry of DHABs. In particular, inherent metabolic strategies accompanied by genetic adaptations have provided insights on how prokaryotic communities can adapt to salt-saturated condition. Here, we review the current knowledge on the diversity, genomics, metabolisms and ecology of prokaryotes in DHABs.

Using observed load distributions with a simple model to analyse the epidemiology of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on sea trout (Salmo trutta).

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Alexander G

2002-06-01

Sea lice are ectoparasites of salmonids that have been associated with the recent decline in sea trout numbers in north-west Europe. Observed patterns of louse load distribution between sea trout in the seas surrounding the UK, Ireland and Norway and a simple model have been used to analyse the epidemiology of lice. Loads are aggregated and deviate strongly from the Poisson distribution, although less than is observed with many other parasites. The louse numbers on fish from offshore sites are slightly less variable than for fish from coastal sites with comparable mean loads. Analysis of louse development stages and sexes shows that selection between hosts by sea lice plays a limited role. If host selection is absent, then associated poor condition would be caused by, not the cause of, high louse burdens; however the absence of such selection is not proved. Scenarios with infection that is patchy in space and time best generate the aggregated load patterns observed; these patches accord with observed swarms of copepodids. Prevalence patterns may indicate the movement of trout between environments. Control of copepodids in infection 'hot spots', either directly or through control of louse egg production in their catchment, may reduce louse loads on wild sea trout and, in particular, extreme and damaging loads.

An abyssal mobilome: viruses, plasmids and vesicles from deep-sea hydrothermal vents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lossouarn, Julien; Dupont, Samuel; Gorlas, Aurore; Mercier, Coraline; Bienvenu, Nadege; Marguet, Evelyne; Forterre, Patrick; Geslin, Claire

2015-12-01

Mobile genetic elements (MGEs) such as viruses, plasmids, vesicles, gene transfer agents (GTAs), transposons and transpovirions, which collectively represent the mobilome, interact with cellular organisms from all three domains of life, including those thriving in the most extreme environments. While efforts have been made to better understand deep-sea vent microbial ecology, our knowledge of the mobilome associated with prokaryotes inhabiting deep-sea hydrothermal vents remains limited. Here we focus on the abyssal mobilome by reviewing accumulating data on viruses, plasmids and vesicles associated with thermophilic and hyperthermophilic Bacteria and Archaea present in deep-sea hydrothermal vents. Copyright © 2015 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2014-10-01

Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

A GIS Approach to Wind,SST(Sea Surface Temperature) and CHL(Chlorophyll) variations in the Caspian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Mirkhalili, Seyedhamzeh

2016-07-01

Chlorophyll is an extremely important bio-molecule, critical in photosynthesis, which allows plants to absorb energy from light. At the base of the ocean food web are single-celled algae and other plant-like organisms known as Phytoplankton. Like plants on land, Phytoplankton use chlorophyll and other light-harvesting pigments to carry out photosynthesis. Where Phytoplankton grow depends on available sunlight, temperature, and nutrient levels. In this research a GIS Approach using ARCGIS software and QuikSCAT satellite data was applied to visualize WIND,SST(Sea Surface Temperature) and CHL(Chlorophyll) variations in the Caspian Sea.Results indicate that increase in chlorophyll concentration in coastal areas is primarily driven by terrestrial nutrients and does not imply that warmer SST will lead to an increase in chlorophyll concentration and consequently Phytoplankton abundance.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

2014-05-01

The work proposed herewith presents the results of a ten-year wave hindcast performed in the Black Sea and focused on the storm conditions. A wave modelling system, SWAN based, was implemented in the basin of the Black Sea. Validations have been performed both against in situ and remotely sensed data for the entire ten-year period considered (1999-2008). The wind field provided by NCEP-CFSR (United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with a spatial resolution of 0.312ºx0.312º and a temporal resolution of 3 hours was considered for forcing the wave model. In statistical terms, the results are in general in line with those provided by similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, the most important factors in increasing the general system reliability being the accuracy and resolution of the wind fields considered. As regards the physical processes, the calibration tests performed show that whitecapping still represents the weak link in deep water wave modelling. The most relevant storm conditions encountered in this ten-year period considered were further analysed. This analysis was performed from the point of view of the intensity, location of occurrence, duration and propagation in the geographical space of the storms. Following the results of the work, the western side of the sea is more energetic and almost each year storms with significant wave heights of about eight meters are encountered in this part of the Black Sea, while in the case of the extreme storms significant wave heights even greater than eleven meters may occur. From this perspective, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information about the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. Moreover, this marine environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and to offshore operations and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce

Towards the best approach for wind wave modelling in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique; Cavaleri, Luigi; Viswanadhapalli; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-01-01

orography. The Red Sea is an extreme example in this respect, especially because of its long and narrow shape. This deceivingly simple domain offers very interesting challenges for wind and wave modeling, not easily, if ever, found elsewhere. Depending

PROBLEMS OF SEA-GOING NAVIGATION IN KERCI STRAIT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. ŞTEFAN

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Kerch Strait was the main passage between the Azov Sea and the Black Sea.The passage of ships through the strait is hampered by several physical and geographical factors: emerged and submerged morphology, the climatic and hydrological parameters. As a result of the extremely low depths of the strait, for the safety of navigation, authorities have been forced to dredge a canal for passage of the vessels with a medium draft, to make a properly hydrographical develop¬ment of the fairway and of the shores, and to establish a favorable anchoring area etc. Ice, which occurs in winter, makes the navigation very difficult, which takes place in convoys, preceded by ice breakers. Fog, frequent in the transitional seasons, hampered navigation; many accidents happened because of this inconvenience. Most accidents due to weather conditions (fog, wind are specific to smaller vessels, sea-river type, which are sailing in the area and which, due to their construction, are not able to deal with exceptional weather conditions at sea. The existence of surface currents, with the dominant direction north-south, from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, affects navigation only around the heads where cau¬ses circular currents. In this case are affected only pleasure boats and low powered vessel. With all these impediments to navigation, the Kerch Strait is an important waterway, especially for the countries bordering the Sea of Azov: Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and also for the countries from the Black Sea basin.

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.

The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...

Features of Red Sea Water Masses

Science.gov (United States)

Kartadikaria, Aditya; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-04-01

Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

Features of Red Sea Water Masses

KAUST Repository

Kartadikaria, Aditya R.

2015-04-01

Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ < 26.0. These types of water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, Dionysios E.

2015-02-16

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998-2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness. © 2015 The Authors.

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Yi, Xing; Platt, Trevor; Racault, Marie-Fanny; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Pradhan, Yaswant; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-01-01

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998-2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness. © 2015 The Authors.

Scales and associated data - What is enough for SEA needs?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Partidario, Maria Rosario

2007-01-01

The question of scale and data needs in SEA is explored, based on the assumption that SEA emerged to address multiple scales, larger perspectives and respond to new development paradigms, which determine new functions and expectations on SEA deliveries. Spatial and temporal scales in SEA are considered. This paper argues that other dimensions in temporal scales, which are crucial for SEA, may need to be considered: the generational time scale (the temporal scale across generations) and the decisional time scale (the temporal scale that is relevant for making strategic decisions). For example, the timing of data analysis in relation to the needs of decision-making at strategic levels is the most critical aspect which, if not met, may make data analysis redundant, waste time and limit the environmental or social benefits of SEA. The concept of SEA in its strategic sense is emphasized, in contrast with the EIA-based SEA concept, and its implications to SEA methodologies are discussed, including the understanding of baseline data needs in strategic contexts. A new lexicon for SEA, in a strategic sense, is suggested to help enhance a strategic culture in impact assessment

Release strategies for rehabilitated sea otters

Science.gov (United States)

DeGange, Anthony R.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Bayha, Keith; Williams, Terrie M.; Davis, Randall W.

1995-01-01

According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services’ (USFWS) Response Plan for sea otters (USFWS, in preparation), in the event of an oil spill, the decision to release sea otters from rehabilitation centers following treatment will be linked to the decision on whether to capture sea otters for treatment. Assuming a scenario similar to the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), once the decision to capture sea otters is made, the ultimate goal is to return as many sea otters to the wild as possible, even though the rescue may not be expected to produce results significant at the population level. The decision by the USFWS to proceed with capture, rehabilitation, and release will be made on a case-by-case basis (USFWS, in preparation). Many factors will influence the decision. Perhaps the most important factors in deciding when and where to release sea otters are the location and availability of suitable release sites and verification that the otters are free of diseases that might be transmitted to the wild population.Alternative release strategies for sea otters will be contained in the sea otter response portion of the USFWS’s oil spill contingency plans for Alaska and California that are being developed as required by the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. Public review of these plans before they are implemented will help to reduce public concern about the survival of rehabilitated otters, their biological effect on the release area, and the potential introduction or spread of disease into the wild sea otter population.The objective of this chapter is to review alternative strategies for the disposition of rehabilitated sea otters. Our assumption is that returning as many animals to the wild as possible, whether it be for humanitarian or biological reasons, is the ultimate goal of this effort (Figure 10.1).

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallegatte, Stéphane

2012-01-01

This article reviews the channels through which sea level rise can affect economic growth, namely the loss of land, the loss of infrastructure and physical capital, the loss of social capital, the additional cost from extreme events and coastal floods, and the increased expenditure for coastal protection. It discusses how existing studies on the direct impact of sea level rise could be used to investigate the resulting consequences on economic growth, emphasizes research needs on this question, and discusses consequences on migration. (letter)

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

Synoptic conditions of fine-particle transport to the last interglacial Red Sea-Dead Sea from Nd-Sr compositions of sediment cores

Science.gov (United States)

Palchan, Daniel; Stein, Mordechai; Goldstein, Steven L.; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva; Tirosh, Ofir; Erel, Yigal

2018-01-01

The sediments deposited at the depocenter of the Dead Sea comprise high-resolution archive of hydrological changes in the lake's watershed and record the desert dust transport to the region. This paper reconstructs the dust transport to the region during the termination of glacial Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS 6; ∼135-129 ka) and the last interglacial peak period (MIS5e, ∼129-116 ka). We use chemical and Nd and Sr isotope compositions of fine detritus material recovered from sediment core drilled at the deepest floor of the Dead Sea. The data is integrated with data achieved from cores drilled at the floor of the Red Sea, thus, forming a Red Sea-Dead Sea transect extending from the desert belt to the Mediterranean climate zone. The Dead Sea accumulated flood sediments derived from three regional surface cover types: settled desert dust, mountain loess-soils and loess-soils filling valleys in the Dead Sea watershed termed here "Valley Loess". The Valley Loess shows a distinct 87Sr/86Sr ratio of 0.7081 ± 1, inherited from dissolved detrital calcites that originate from dried waterbodies in the Sahara and are transported with the dust to the entire transect. Our hydro-climate and synoptic conditions reconstruction illustrates the following history: During glacial period MIS6, Mediterranean cyclones governed the transport of Saharan dust and rains to the Dead Sea watershed, driving the development of both mountain soils and Valley Loess. Then, at Heinrich event 11, dry western winds blew Saharan dust over the entire Red Sea - Dead Sea transect marking latitudinal expansion of the desert belt. Later, when global sea-level rose, the Dead Sea watershed went through extreme aridity, the lake retreated, depositing salt and accumulating fine detritus of the Valley Loess. During peak interglacial MIS 5e, enhanced flooding activity flushed the mountain soils and fine detritus from all around the Dead Sea and Red Sea, marking a significant "contraction" of the desert belt

Extreme sea level variability along the coast of India. Vol. 1-2

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shetye, S.R.; Shankar, D; Sundar, D; Michael, G.S.; Fernandes, S.E.; Telang, M.

52 Annexure – II 53 Annexure – III 107 Project Team A.S. Unnikrishnan S.R. Shetye D. Shankar D... 95˚E 95˚E 5˚N 5˚N 10˚N 10˚N 15˚N 15˚N 20˚N 20˚N 25˚N 25˚N Arabian Sea Bay of Bengal Indian Ocean India Contai Nagapattinam Gopalpur Puri Balasore Cape Comorin Nellore Kakinada Chittagong NizampatnamOngole Chandbali Rameswaram Hatia Bhavnagar Porbandar...

The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

Science.gov (United States)

Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

Combined infragravity wave and sea-swell runup over fringing reefs by super typhoon Haiyan

Science.gov (United States)

Shimozono, Takenori; Tajima, Yoshimitsu; Kennedy, Andrew B.; Nobuoka, Hisamichi; Sasaki, Jun; Sato, Shinji

2015-06-01

Super typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013, marking one of the strongest typhoons at landfall in recorded history. Extreme storm waves attacked the Pacific coast of Eastern Samar where the violent typhoon first made landfall. Our field survey confirmed that storm overwash heights of 6-14 m above mean sea level were distributed along the southeastern coast and extensive inundation occurred in some coastal villages in spite of natural protection by wide fringing reefs. A wave model based on Boussinesq-type equations is constructed to simulate wave transformation over shallow fringing reefs and validated against existing laboratory data. Wave propagation and runup on the Eastern Samar coast are then reproduced using offshore boundary conditions based on a wave hindcast. The model results suggest that extreme waves on the shore are characterized as a superposition of the infragravity wave and sea-swell components. The balance of the two components is strongly affected by the reef width and beach slope through wave breaking, frictional dissipation, reef-flat resonances, and resonant runup amplification. Therefore, flood characteristics significantly differ from site to site due to a large variation of the two topographic parameters on the hilly coast. Strong coupling of infragravity waves and sea swells produces extreme runup on steep beaches fronted by narrow reefs, whereas the infragravity waves become dominant over wide reefs and they evolve into bores on steep beaches.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

Thermal biology of sea snakes and sea kraits.

Science.gov (United States)

Heatwole, Harold; Grech, Alana; Monahan, John F; King, Susan; Marsh, Helene

2012-08-01

Temperature probably had no direct effect on the evolution of sea kraits within their center of origin, a geologically stable thermal zone straddling the equator, but may have indirectly affected expansions and contractions in distributions beyond that zone through global fluctuations that caused alternation of higher and lower sea levels. The northern limit of the Laticauda colubrina complex seems to be the 20°C isotherm; in the south, the range does not reach that isotherm because there is no land (also a habitat requirement of sea kraits) within the zone of suitable temperature. The relationship of temperature to the pattern of geographic variation in morphology supports either the hypothesis of peripheral convergence or the developmental hypothesis but does not distinguish between them. Quadratic surfaces relating cumulative scores for coloration and morphological characters to global position showed a strong latitudinal component and an even stronger longitudinal one in which the direction of the latitudinal effect was reversed between east and west. A multivariate analysis revealed that while morphological characters vary significantly by location and climate when tested separately, when the influence of location on morphology is taken into account, no residual relationship between climate and morphology remains. Most marine snakes have mean upper temperature tolerances between 39°C and 40°C and operate at temperatures much nearer their upper thermal limits than their lower limits but still avoid deleterious extremes by diving from excessively hot water to deeper, cooler strata, and by surfacing when water is cold. At the surface in still water in sunlight, Pelamis can maintain its body temperature slightly above that of the water, but whether this is significant in nature is questionable. As temperature falls below 18-20°C, survival time is progressively reduced, accompanied by the successive occurrence of cessation of feeding, cessation of swimming, and

The Last Interglacial in the Levant: Perspective from the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drill Core

Science.gov (United States)

Goldstein, S. L.; Torfstein, A.; Stein, M.; Kushnir, Y.; Enzel, Y.; Haug, G. H.

2014-12-01

Sediments recovered by the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project provide a new perspective on the climate history of the Levant during the last interglacial period MIS5. They record the extreme impacts of an intense interglacial characterized by stronger insolation, warmer mean global temperatures, and higher sea-levels than the Holocene. Results show both extreme hyper-aridity during MIS5e, including an unprecedented drawdown of Dead Sea water levels, and the impacts of a strong precession-driven African monsoon responsible for a major sapropel event (S5) in the eastern Mediterranean. Hyper-arid conditions at the beginning of MIS5e prior to S5 (~132-128 ka) are evidenced by halite deposition, indicating declining Dead Sea lake levels. Surprisingly, the hyper-arid phase is interrupted during the MIS5e peak (~128-120 ka), coinciding with the S5 sapropel, which is characterized by a thick (23 m) section of silty detritus (without any halite) whose provenance indicates southern-sourced wetness in the watershed. Upon weakening of the S5 monsoon (~120-115 ka), the return of extreme aridity resulted in an unprecedented lake level drawdown, reflected by massive salt deposition, and followed by a sediment hiatus (~115-100 ka) indicating prolonged low lake level. The resumption of section follows classic Levant patterns with more wetness during cooler MIS5b and hyper-aridity during warmer MIS5a. The ICDP core provides the first evidence for a direct linkage between an intense precession-driven African monsoon and wetness at the high subtropical latitude (~30N) of the Dead Sea watershed. Combined with coeval deposition of Negev speleothems and travertines, and calcitification of Red Sea corals, the evidence indicates a wet climatic corridor that could facilitate homo sapiens migration out of Africa during the MIS5e peak. In addition, the MIS 5e hyper-arid intervals may provide an important cautionary analogue for the impact of future warming on regional water resources.

First Insights into the Viral Communities of the Deep-sea Anoxic Brines of the Red Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Antunes, André; Alam, Intikhab; Simões, Marta Filipa; Daniels, Camille; Ferreira, Ari J S; Siam, Rania; El-Dorry, Hamza; Bajic, Vladimir B

2015-10-01

The deep-sea brines of the Red Sea include some of the most extreme and unique environments on Earth. They combine high salinities with increases in temperature, heavy metals, hydrostatic pressure, and anoxic conditions, creating unique settings for thriving populations of novel extremophiles. Despite a recent increase of studies focusing on these unusual biotopes, their viral communities remain unexplored. The current survey explores four metagenomic datasets obtained from different brine-seawater interface samples, focusing specifically on the diversity of their viral communities. Data analysis confirmed that the particle-attached viral communities present in the brine-seawater interfaces were diverse and generally dominated by Caudovirales, yet appearing distinct from sample to sample. With a level of caution, we report the unexpected finding of Phycodnaviridae, which infects algae and plants, and trace amounts of insect-infecting Iridoviridae. Results from Kebrit Deep revealed stratification in the viral communities present in the interface: the upper-interface was enriched with viruses associated with typical marine bacteria, while the lower-interface was enriched with haloviruses and halophages. These results provide first insights into the unexplored viral communities present in deep-sea brines of the Red Sea, representing one of the first steps for ongoing and future sampling efforts and studies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.

2015-11-19

A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass.

Virulence Profiles of Vibrio vulnificus in German Coastal Waters, a Comparison of North Sea and Baltic Sea Isolates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadja Bier

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Vibrio vulnificus is a halophilic bacterium of coastal environments known for sporadically causing severe foodborne or wound infections. Global warming is expected to lead to a rising occurrence of V. vulnificus and an increasing incidence of human infections in Northern Europe. So far, infections in Germany were exclusively documented for the Baltic Sea coast, while no cases from the North Sea region have been reported. Regional variations in the prevalence of infections may be influenced by differences in the pathogenicity of V. vulnificus populations in both areas. This study aimed to compare the distribution of virulence-associated traits and genotypes among 101 V. vulnificus isolates from the Baltic Sea and North Sea in order to assess their pathogenicity potential. Furthermore, genetic relationships were examined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST. A high diversity of MLST sequences (74 sequence types and differences regarding the presence of six potential pathogenicity markers were observed in the V. vulnificus populations of both areas. Strains with genotypes and markers associated with pathogenicity are not restricted to a particular geographic region. This indicates that lack of reported cases in the North Sea region is not caused by the absence of potentially pathogenic strains.

RNA deep sequencing reveals differential microRNA expression during development of sea urchin and sea star.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabah Kadri

Full Text Available microRNAs (miRNAs are small (20-23 nt, non-coding single stranded RNA molecules that act as post-transcriptional regulators of mRNA gene expression. They have been implicated in regulation of developmental processes in diverse organisms. The echinoderms, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin and Patiria miniata (sea star are excellent model organisms for studying development with well-characterized transcriptional networks. However, to date, nothing is known about the role of miRNAs during development in these organisms, except that the genes that are involved in the miRNA biogenesis pathway are expressed during their developmental stages. In this paper, we used Illumina Genome Analyzer (Illumina, Inc. to sequence small RNA libraries in mixed stage population of embryos from one to three days after fertilization of sea urchin and sea star (total of 22,670,000 reads. Analysis of these data revealed the miRNA populations in these two species. We found that 47 and 38 known miRNAs are expressed in sea urchin and sea star, respectively, during early development (32 in common. We also found 13 potentially novel miRNAs in the sea urchin embryonic library. miRNA expression is generally conserved between the two species during development, but 7 miRNAs are highly expressed in only one species. We expect that our two datasets will be a valuable resource for everyone working in the field of developmental biology and the regulatory networks that affect it. The computational pipeline to analyze Illumina reads is available at http://www.benoslab.pitt.edu/services.html.

RNA Deep Sequencing Reveals Differential MicroRNA Expression during Development of Sea Urchin and Sea Star

Science.gov (United States)

Kadri, Sabah; Hinman, Veronica F.; Benos, Panayiotis V.

2011-01-01

microRNAs (miRNAs) are small (20–23 nt), non-coding single stranded RNA molecules that act as post-transcriptional regulators of mRNA gene expression. They have been implicated in regulation of developmental processes in diverse organisms. The echinoderms, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (sea urchin) and Patiria miniata (sea star) are excellent model organisms for studying development with well-characterized transcriptional networks. However, to date, nothing is known about the role of miRNAs during development in these organisms, except that the genes that are involved in the miRNA biogenesis pathway are expressed during their developmental stages. In this paper, we used Illumina Genome Analyzer (Illumina, Inc.) to sequence small RNA libraries in mixed stage population of embryos from one to three days after fertilization of sea urchin and sea star (total of 22,670,000 reads). Analysis of these data revealed the miRNA populations in these two species. We found that 47 and 38 known miRNAs are expressed in sea urchin and sea star, respectively, during early development (32 in common). We also found 13 potentially novel miRNAs in the sea urchin embryonic library. miRNA expression is generally conserved between the two species during development, but 7 miRNAs are highly expressed in only one species. We expect that our two datasets will be a valuable resource for everyone working in the field of developmental biology and the regulatory networks that affect it. The computational pipeline to analyze Illumina reads is available at http://www.benoslab.pitt.edu/services.html. PMID:22216218

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. J. van Oldenborgh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse

Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

2018-01-01

On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution

Supplementary Material for: Transcriptome and proteome dynamics in larvae of the barnacle Balanus Amphitrite from the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Chandramouli, Kondethimmanahalli; Al-Aqeel, Sarah; Ryu, Tae Woo; Zhang, Huoming; Seridi, Loqmane; Ghosheh, Yanal; Qian, Pei-Yuan; Ravasi, Timothy

2015-01-01

Abstract Background The barnacle Balanus amphitrite is widely distributed in marine shallow and tidal waters, and has significant economic and ecological importance. Nauplii, the first larval stage of most crustaceans, are extremely abundant in the marine zooplankton. However, a lack of genome information has hindered elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of development, settlement and survival strategies in extreme marine environments. We sequenced and constructed the genome dataset for nauplii to obtain comprehensive larval genetic information. We also investigated iTRAQ-based protein expression patterns to reveal the molecular basis of nauplii development, and to gain information on larval survival strategies in the Red Sea marine environment. Results A nauplii larval transcript dataset, containing 92,117 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), was constructed and used as a reference for the proteome analysis. Genes related to translation, oxidative phosphorylation and cytoskeletal development were highly abundant. We observed remarkable plasticity in the proteome of Red Sea larvae. The proteins associated with development, stress responses and osmoregulation showed the most significant differences between the two larval populations studied. The synergistic overexpression of heat shock and osmoregulatory proteins may facilitate larval survival in intertidal habitats or in extreme environments. Conclusions We presented, for the first time, comprehensive transcriptome and proteome datasets for Red Sea nauplii. The datasets provide a foundation for future investigations focused on the survival mechanisms of other crustaceans in extreme marine environments.

137Cs inventories in the water column collected from the South and South China Seas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, M.; Wang, Z.-L.; Zheng, J.

2006-01-01

Seawater samples were collected in the Sulu and South China Seas and their 137 Cs activities were determined by γ spectrometry. A significant difference in intermediate water 137 Cs activities in the 750-1500 m depth was observed between the Sulu and South China Seas. The 137 Cs inventories in the Sulu Sea was 5.7 times higher than that of the integrated deposition density of atmospheric global fallout at the same latitude of 0-10degN. A possible mechanism controlling this extremely high 137 Cs inventories may be inflows of 137 Cs rich North Pacific Tropical Water and upper North Pacific Intermediate Water through the Luzon Straight from the West Philippine Sea, and lateral transport across the Mindoro Strait into the Sulu Sea, then conveyance into the deep layer in the Sulu Sea basin. (author)

Late Holocene higher sea level and its radiocarbon dates in Okierabu-jima, Ryukyus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koba, Motoharu; Omoto, Kunio; Takahashi, Tatsuo.

1980-01-01

Okierabu-jima of the Ryukyu Islands, which is a poly-terraced Pleistocene raised coral reef island, doesn't have a Holocene raised coral reef, but coastal erosional features showing higher sea levels in Holocene. The authors obtained some data indicating the period of one of the Holocene higher sea levels. All radiocarbon dates concerning Okierabu-jima's Holocene sea-level changes are plotted on the date-height coordinates. The paleo sea level between 5000 and 2000 y. B. P. lies above the broken line drawn from 6 m below to 2.18 m above the present sea level. The period of the highest sea level in Holocene seems to be about 3000 to 2000 y. B. P. in this island. Its height is presumably 2.4 m a. s. l. derived on an average from heights of stacks and coastal benches in the almost all coasts of the island (Koba, 1974). Beach rocks were already formed at the landward extremity of the reef flat corresponding to the almost present sea level about 1300 y. B. P. (author)

Communicating adaptation with emotions : the role of intense experiences for concern about extreme weather

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vasileiadou, E.; Botzen, W.

2014-01-01

Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among

Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

Decomposition of dilute residual active chlorine in sea-water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshinaga, Tetsutaro; Kawano, Kentaro; Yanagase, Kenjiro; Shiga, Akira

1985-01-01

Coastal industries such as power stations require enormous quantities of sea-water for cooling, but the marine organisms in it often result in fouling and/or blockade of the circulating water condenser and pipeworks. To prevent this, chlorine, or hypochlorite by the direct electrolysis of sea-water have been added. Environmental concerns, however, dictate that the residual chlorine concentration at the outlet should be less than the regulated value (0.02 ppm). Methods for decomposing dilute residual chlorine solutions were therefore studied. It was found that: 1) The addition of (raw) sea-water to the sea-water which passed through the condenser lowered the residual chlorine concentration to an greater extent than could be expected by dilution only. 2) Ozonation of the residual chlorine solution led to degradation of OCl - , but in solutions with a residual chlorine concentrations of less than 3 -- 4 ppm, ozonation had no effect. 3) Irradiation with ultra violet light (254 nm) decomposed the residual chlorine. Under the present work conditions (25 0 C: pH 8; depth 10 mm), nearly first order kinetics were to hold [da/dt = ksub((1)) (1-a)sup(n)]. There is a proportional relationship between the kinetic constant (k) and illuminous intensity (L), i.e., ksub((1))[C 0 sup(Cl 2 ): 10 ppm] = 6.56 x 10 -5 L (L = 0 -- 1000 lx). Thus, the use of both sea-water addition and UV irradiation provides a probable method for decomposing a residual chlorine to the expected concentration. (author)

Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Poerbandono

2017-07-01

This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhough, J.; Birch, P. C.; Chapman, S. C.; Rowlands, G.

2002-12-01

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71-2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.

Carbon isotope ratios of organic matter in Bering Sea settling particles. Extremely high remineralization of organic carbon derived from diatoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasuda, Saki; Akagi, Tasuku; Naraoka, Hiroshi; Kitajima, Fumio; Takahashi, Kozo

2016-01-01

The carbon isotope ratios of organic carbon in settling particles collected in the highly-diatom-productive Bering Sea were determined. Wet decomposition was employed to oxidize relatively fresh organic matter. The amount of unoxidised organic carbon in the residue following wet decomposition was negligible. The δ 13 C of organic carbon in the settling particles showed a clear relationship against SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio of settling particles: approximately -26‰ and -19‰ at lower and higher SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratios, respectively. The δ 13 C values were largely interpreted in terms of mixing of two major plankton sources. Both δ 13 C and compositional data can be explained consistently only by assuming that more than 98% of diatomaceous organic matter decays and that organic matter derived from carbonate-shelled plankton may remain much less remineralized. A greater amount of diatom-derived organic matter is discovered to be trapped with the increase of SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio of the settling particles. The ratio of organic carbon to inorganic carbon, known as the rain ratio, therefore, tends to increase proportionally with the SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio under an extremely diatom-productive condition. (author)

Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice: Anthropogenic or Natural Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Bitz, C. M.

2016-12-01

Antarctic sea ice extent has increased over the last 36 years according to the satellite record. Concurrent with Antarctic sea-ice expansion has been broad cooling of the Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature. Not only are Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends at odds with expectations from greenhouse gas-induced warming, the trend patterns are not reproduced in historical simulations with comprehensive global climate models. While a variety of different factors may have contributed to the observed trends in recent decades, we propose that it is atmospheric circulation changes - and the changes in ocean circulation they induce - that have emerged as the most likely cause of the observed Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends. I will discuss deficiencies in models that could explain their incorrect response. In addition, I will present results from a series of experiments where the Antarctic sea ice and ocean are forced by atmospheric perturbations imposed within a coupled climate model. Figure caption: Linear trends of annual-mean SST (left) and annual-mean sea-ice concentration (right) over 1980-2014. SST is from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (version 2; Reynolds et al. 2002). Sea-ice concentration is from passive microwave observations using the NASA Team algorithm. Only the annual means are shown here for brevity and because the signal to noise is greater than in the seasonal means. Figure from Armour and Bitz (2015).

United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms and Model Representation

Science.gov (United States)

Black, R. X.

2017-12-01

We summarize results from a project focusing on regional temperature and precipitation extremes over the continental United States. Our project introduces a new framework for evaluating these extremes emphasizing their (a) large-scale organization, (b) underlying physical sources (including remote-excitation and scale-interaction) and (c) representation in climate models. Results to be reported include the synoptic-dynamic behavior, seasonality and secular variability of cold waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events in the observational record. We also study how the characteristics of such extremes are systematically related to Northern Hemisphere planetary wave structures and thus planetary- and hemispheric-scale forcing (e.g., those associated with major El Nino events and Arctic sea ice change). The underlying physics of event onset are diagnostically quantified for different categories of events. Finally, the representation of these extremes in historical coupled climate model simulations is studied and the origins of model biases are traced using new metrics designed to assess the large-scale atmospheric forcing of local extremes.

Comment on 'The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment'

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tol, R.S.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Brown, S.; Hinkel, J.; Vafeidis, A.T.; Spencer, T.

2016-01-01

Pycroft et al. (Environ Resour Econ 1–29, 2015) used incorrect and outdated data to study the economic impact of sea level rise. They misinterpret some of their input data, and fail to exploit the strengths of their computable general equilibrium model and previously developed methods to study

Effects of Compound K-Distributed Sea Clutter on Angle Measurement of Wideband Monopulse Radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Zhu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The effects of compound K-distributed sea clutter on angle measurement of wideband monopulse radar are investigated in this paper. We apply the conditional probability density function (pdf of monopulse ratio (MR error to analyze these effects. Based on the angle measurement procedure of the wideband monopulse radar, this conditional pdf is first deduced in detail for the case of compound K-distributed sea clutter plus noise. Herein, the spatial correlation of the texture components for each channel clutter and the correlation of the texture components between the sum and difference channel clutters are considered, and two extreme situations for each of them are tackled. Referring to the measured sea clutter data, angle measurement performances in various K-distributed sea clutter plus noise circumstances are simulated, and the effects of compound K-distributed sea clutter on angle measurement are discussed.

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-04-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

Characterizing Novel Archaeal Lineages in Salton Sea Sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Tarn, J.; Valentine, D. L.

2016-12-01

Biological communities in extreme environments are often dominated by microorganisms of the domain Archaea. Abundant microbial assemblages of this group are found in the hottest, saltiest, and most thermodynamically-limited ecosystems on earth. These taxing surroundings are thought to impose a state of chronic energy stress on resident organisms due to high costs of cellular maintenance relative to resource availability. Even in more temperate settings, Archaea are regularly associated with low-nutrient lifestyles, reflecting their adaptation to extreme, biologically-limiting conditions, which may be an ancestral, domain-wide trait. In this study, we seek to characterize the Archaeal community of the Salton Sea, where members of this domain are novel and highly abundant. Previous work by Swan et al. in 2010 showed that gradients in salinity, sulfate, carbon and nitrogen across sediment horizons of the Salton Sea are linked to changes in Archaeal dominance and community structure. In light of recent taxonomic revisions of the domain, I reclassified the 107 published small subunit rRNA Archaeal sequences from the 2010 study using updated reference databases. The majority of these Euryarchaeal sequences were reassigned to the so-called DPANN superphylum, with Pacearchaeota-related sequences being very abundant in shallow, organic-rich sediments. In deeper, energy-limited strata, several groups of Bathyarchaeota and one divergent DPANN clade were dominant. Ongoing metagenomic work on these sediment communities is being used to assemble genomes of these novel Archaeal groups. These results will help define genomic adaptations of Salton Sea Archaea to varying levels of energy stress as well as inform future cultivation efforts.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

CM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Developments in the North Sea and their consequences for the marine environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eisma, D.

1981-01-01

Summarizing, the marine environment of the North Sea is threatened in several ways: by waterpollution, by overfishing and by bottom disturbance. Fishing is now extremely regulated, but research on and control of stocks is only extended to commercial species. Strict regulations have been made for

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Science.gov (United States)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Corrosion behaviour of hyper duplex stainless steel in various metallurgical conditions for sea water cooled condensers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Umesh Pratap; Kain, Vivekanand; Chandra, Kamlesh

2011-01-01

The sea water cooled condensers have to resist severe corrosion as marine environment is the most corrosive natural environment. Copper alloys are being phased out due to difficulties in water chemistry control and Titanium base alloys are extremely expensive. Austenitic stainless steels (SS) remain prone to localized corrosion in marine environments hence not suitable. These heat exchangers operate at temperatures not exceeding 50 deg C and at very low pressures. The tubes of these heat exchangers are joined to the carbon steel tube sheets by roll expansion or by roll expansion followed by seam welding. These conditions are expected to affect the localized corrosion resistance of the tube in roll joined region due to cold working and in the tube-tube sheet welded joint due to thermal effects of welding. In this study, the localized corrosion behaviour of a Hyper Duplex Stainless Steel (HDSS) has been evaluated, and compared with other materials e.g. types 304L SS, 316L SS, Duplex SS 2205, Titanium grade - 2, and Al Brass. The evaluation is done in three metallurgical conditions (a) as received, (b) cold rolled and (c) welded condition in synthetic sea water at room temperature and at 50 deg C to assess the resistance to crevice, pitting and stress corrosion cracking using standard ASTM exposure and electrochemical techniques. The results provide comparative assessment of these alloys and show their susceptibility in the three metallurgical conditions as encountered in condensers. Hyper-duplex SS has been shown to be highly resistant in sea water for the condenser tubing application. (author)

Case studies: Application of SEA in provincial level expressway infrastructure network planning in China - Current existing problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Kaiyi; Sheate, William R.

2011-01-01

Since the Law of the People's Republic of China on Environmental Impact Assessment was enacted in 2003 and Huanfa 2004 No. 98 was released in 2004, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been officially being implemented in the expressway infrastructure planning field in China. Through scrutinizing two SEA application cases of China's provincial level expressway infrastructure (PLEI) network plans, it is found that current SEA practice in expressway infrastructure planning field has a number of problems including: SEA practitioners do not fully understand the objective of SEA; its potential contributions to strategic planning and decision-making is extremely limited; the employed application procedure and prediction and assessment techniques are too simple to bring objective, unbiased and scientific results; and no alternative options are considered. All these problems directly lead to poor quality SEA and consequently weaken SEA's effectiveness.

Application of EIA/SEA system in land use planning: Experience from Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojanović Božidar

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the experience and current status of EIA/SEA procedures and assessment methodologies in Serbia, aiming to propose strategies that can lead to effective integration of the SEA in spatial planning. Institutional and practical problems with regard to the regulations of EIA/SEA were considered. Experience from the past decade shows that implementation of EIA system in Serbia has not been effective as expected. New legislation on EIA and SEA is harmonized with corresponding EU Directives. First steps in the application of the SEA show that the main issues are screening, scooping and decision making. According to the research results, it is suggested that extra evaluation processes should be incorporated into current assessment procedures to improve their scientific validity and integrity.

The Role of Taboos in the Protection and Recovery of Sea Turtles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LoriKim Alexander

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Despite increased efforts from government agencies, scientists, and non-government organizations over the past few decades, anthropogenic sources of sea turtle mortality continue to threaten the survivorship of sea turtle species around the globe. More recent efforts to engage local people with community-based sea turtle conservation programs have been based primarily on economic incentives and less on cultural and social traditions. But there is growing evidence that informal institutions such as, taboos can be extremely effective at promoting wildlife conservation. Ghana is a culturally diverse country where local traditions have shown to improve protection for primates, crocodiles, and many bird species. This study explores the presence of a sea turtle taboo in fishing communities to demonstrate that traditional practices make residents more receptive to sea turtle conservation and more willing to follow government regulations. Fishers in the communities that are aware of the taboo are also more willing to adjust fishing methods to better protect sea turtles. The traditional taboo and national laws appear to be working synergistically to enhance sea turtle conservation in some regions of Ghana. This paper extends the argument that sea turtle conservation strategies succeed when the cultural and social traditions of local communities are integrated with management activities.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Recovery of uranium from sea-water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llewelyn, G.I.W.

1976-01-01

The possibility of extraction of uranium from sea-water on a sufficiently large scale to contribute significantly to national UK requirements is placed in perspective. It seems unlikely that there are sites around the UK coast where this could be achieved, and insufficient work has been done to be confident that sites exist anywhere to enable uranium extraction to be carried out on a large scale. Process techniques have been developed on a small scale, but extensive further research work would be necessary to reduce appreciably the present uncertainties. It would be unwise to expect uranium from sea-water to contribute significant amounts to the world's uranium demand for thermal reactors on an acceptable timescale. (author)

Alpha-clustering in dilute nucleonic sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tohsaki, Akihiro

1999-01-01

α-clusters are expected to come out here and there in nucleonic sea owing to energetic benefit as its density is diluted. We propose a precise treatment to elucidate α-clusterized process in nucleonic sea after the breakdown of the uniformness. In order to do this, an infinite number of nucleons are considered by taking account of both the Pauli exclusion principle and effective internucleon forces. This method is called a microscopic approach, which has been successful in an α-cluster structure in light nuclei. In particular, we shed light on overcoming difficulties in a static model within the microscopic framework. This improvement is verified by using the empirical value in Weizaecker's mass formula. (author)

Foehn-induced effects on local dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Savir, Amit; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2018-06-01

Despite the long history of investigation of foehn phenomena, there are few studies of the influence of foehn winds on air pollution and none in the Dead Sea valley. For the first time the foehn phenomenon and its effects on local dust pollution, frontal cloudiness and surface solar radiation were analyzed in the Dead Sea valley, as it occurred on 22 March 2013. This was carried out using both numerical simulations and observations. The foehn winds intensified local dust emissions, while the foehn-induced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused extreme surface dust concentration in the western Dead Sea valley. The dust pollution was transported by west winds eastward, to the central Dead Sea valley, where the speed of these winds sharply decreased. The transported dust was captured by the ascending airflow contributing to the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the central Dead Sea valley. On the day under study, the maximum surface dust concentration did not coincide with the maximum AOD: this being one of the specific effects of the foehn phenomenon on dust pollution in the Dead Sea valley. Radar data showed a passage of frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains led to the formation of a cloud-free band followed by only the partial recovery of solar radiation because of the extreme dust pollution caused by foehn winds.

A new 25 years Arctic Sea level record from ESA satellites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Knudsen, Per

The Arctic is an extremely challenging region for the use of remote sensing for ocean studies. One is the fact that despite 25 years of altimetry only very limited sea level observations exists in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation is changing...... the ESA GOCE mission we are now able to derive a mean dynamic topography of the Arctic Ocean with unprecedented accuracy to constrain the ocean circulation. We present both a new estimation of the mean ocean circulation and new estimates of large scale sea level changes based on satellite data and perform...

Low Carbon sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves

KAUST Repository

Almahasheer, Hanan

2017-08-22

Mangroves forests of Avicennia marina occupy about 135 km2 in the Red Sea and represent one of the most important vegetated communities in this otherwise arid and oligotrophic region. We assessed the soil organic carbon (C-org) stocks, soil accretion rates (SAR; mm y(-1)) and soil C-org sequestration rates (g C-org m(-2) yr(-1)) in 10 mangrove sites within four locations along the Saudi coast of the Central Red Sea. Soil C-org density and stock in Red Sea mangroves were among the lowest reported globally, with an average of 4 +/- 0.3 mg Corg cm(-3) and 43 +/- 5 Mg C-org ha(-1) (in 1 m-thick soils), respectively. Sequestration rates of C-org, estimated at 3 +/- 1 and 15 +/- 1 g C-org m(-2) yr(-1) for the long (millennia) and short (last century) temporal scales, respectively, were also relatively low compared to mangrove habitats from more humid bioregions. In contrast, the accretion rates of Central Red Sea mangroves soils were within the range reported for global mangrove forests. The relatively low C-org sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves could be due to the extreme environmental conditions such as low rainfall, nutrient limitation and high temperature, reducing the growth rates of the mangroves and increasing soil respiration rates.

Low Carbon sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves

KAUST Repository

Almahasheer, Hanan; Serrano, Oscar; Duarte, Carlos M.; Arias-Ortiz, Ariane; Masque, Pere; Irigoien, Xabier

2017-01-01

Mangroves forests of Avicennia marina occupy about 135 km2 in the Red Sea and represent one of the most important vegetated communities in this otherwise arid and oligotrophic region. We assessed the soil organic carbon (C-org) stocks, soil accretion rates (SAR; mm y(-1)) and soil C-org sequestration rates (g C-org m(-2) yr(-1)) in 10 mangrove sites within four locations along the Saudi coast of the Central Red Sea. Soil C-org density and stock in Red Sea mangroves were among the lowest reported globally, with an average of 4 +/- 0.3 mg Corg cm(-3) and 43 +/- 5 Mg C-org ha(-1) (in 1 m-thick soils), respectively. Sequestration rates of C-org, estimated at 3 +/- 1 and 15 +/- 1 g C-org m(-2) yr(-1) for the long (millennia) and short (last century) temporal scales, respectively, were also relatively low compared to mangrove habitats from more humid bioregions. In contrast, the accretion rates of Central Red Sea mangroves soils were within the range reported for global mangrove forests. The relatively low C-org sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves could be due to the extreme environmental conditions such as low rainfall, nutrient limitation and high temperature, reducing the growth rates of the mangroves and increasing soil respiration rates.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

Expected Effects of Offshore Wind Farms on Mediterranean Marine Life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Bray

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Current climate policy and issues of energy security mean wind farms are being built at an increasing rate to meet energy demand. As wind farm development is very likely in the Mediterranean Sea, we provide an assessment of the offshore wind potential and identify expected biological effects of such developments in the region. We break new ground here by identifying potential offshore wind farm (OWF “hotspots” in the Mediterranean. Using lessons learned in Northern Europe, and small-scale experiments in the Mediterranean, we identify sensitive species and habitats that will likely be influenced by OWFs in both these hotspot areas and at a basin level. This information will be valuable to guide policy governing OWF development and will inform the industry as and when environmental impact assessments are required for the Mediterranean Sea.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-02-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Palaeoenvironmental changes across the Danian–Selandian boundary in the North Sea Basin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Anne; Thomsen, Erik

2005-01-01

cores from Storebælt in the eastern part of the North Sea Basin, we have reconstructed the palaeoenvironmental changes across the boundary. The benthic foraminiferal faunas belong to the “Midway-type fauna”. They are extremely rich and more than 260 taxa have been recognized. Q-mode cluster analysis......, the sea bottom conditions became colder and more acidic. This resulted in partial dissolution of the carbonates and the deposition shifted from marl to clay. Comparison with records from the Western Pyrenees, the Nile Basin and the eastern North America suggests that sea-level changes across the Danian......The Danian–Selandian boundary (not, vert, similar60 Ma) marks the cessation of 40 million years of carbonate deposition in the North Sea Basin and a shift to siliciclastic deposition. On the basis of variations in lithology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils in three...

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry L. Hatfield

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler periods of the day or are indeterminate so flowering occurs over a longer period of the growing season. In controlled environment studies, warm temperatures increased the rate of phenological development; however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures. The major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90% from a normal temperature regime. Temperature effects are increased by water deficits and excess soil water demonstrating that understanding the interaction of temperature and water will be needed to develop more effective adaptation strategies to offset the impacts of greater temperature extreme events associated with a changing climate.

Deep-sea pennatulaceans (sea pens) - recent discoveries, morphological adaptations, and responses to benthic oceanographic parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, G. C.

2015-12-01

Pennatulaceans are sessile, benthic marine organisms that are bathymetrically wide-ranging, from the intertidal to approximately 6300 m in depth, and are conspicuous constituents of deep-sea environments. The vast majority of species are adapted for anchoring in soft sediments by the cylindrical peduncle - a muscular hydrostatic skeleton. However, in the past decade a few species ("Rockpens") have been discovered and described that can attach to hard substratum such as exposed rocky outcrops at depths between 669 and 1969 m, by a plunger-like adaptation of the base of the peduncle. Of the thirty-six known genera, eleven (or 30%) have been recorded from depths greater than 1000 m. The pennatulacean depth record holders are an unidentified species of Umbellula from 6260 m in the Peru-Chile Trench and a recently-discovered and described genus and species, Porcupinella profunda, from 5300 m the Porcupine Abyssal Plain of the northeastern Atlantic. A morphologically-differentiated type of polyp (acrozooid) have recently been discovered and described in two genera of shallow-water coral reef sea pens. Acrozooids apparently represent asexual buds and presumably can detach from the adult to start clonal colonies through asexual budding. Acrozooids are to be expected in deep-sea pennatulaceans, but so far have not been observed below 24 m in depth. Morphological responses at depths greater than 1000 m in deep-sea pennatulaceas include: fewer polyps, larger polyps, elongated stalks, and clustering of polyps along the rachis. Responses to deep-ocean physical parameters and anthropogenic changes that could affect the abundance and distribution of deep-sea pennatulaceans include changes in bottom current flow and food availability, changes in seawater temperature and pH, habitat destruction by fish trawling, and sunken refuse pollution. No evidence of the effects of ocean acidification or other effects of anthropogenic climate change in sea pens of the deep-sea has been

Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Jonson

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas, although recently sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased. The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%. This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO rules. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%. In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in EU harbours. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter

Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

2018-04-01

A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

Marine microbiology: Microbial ecology of the Red Sea [Mikrobielle Ökologie des Roten Meeres

KAUST Repository

Stingl, Ulrich; Ngugi, David; Thompson, Luke R.; Antunes, Andre; Cahill, Matthew

2012-01-01

The Red Sea is an unusually harsh marine environment, characterized by high temperature and salinity. It also harbors some of the most extreme environments on earth, the Deep Sea Brine Pools. Here, we report on the microbial communities in these environments. The water column is dominated by SAR11 and Prochlorococcus, which have developed specific adaptations to withstand the conditions. The Brine Pools have only been poorly characterized so far, and only four pure cultures are described. © Springer-Verlag 2012.

Marine microbiology: Microbial ecology of the Red Sea [Mikrobielle Ökologie des Roten Meeres

KAUST Repository

Stingl, Ulrich

2012-10-01

The Red Sea is an unusually harsh marine environment, characterized by high temperature and salinity. It also harbors some of the most extreme environments on earth, the Deep Sea Brine Pools. Here, we report on the microbial communities in these environments. The water column is dominated by SAR11 and Prochlorococcus, which have developed specific adaptations to withstand the conditions. The Brine Pools have only been poorly characterized so far, and only four pure cultures are described. © Springer-Verlag 2012.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard; Woollings, Tim

2016-04-01

In the upcoming North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), we present a synthesis of current knowledge about past, present and possible future climate change in the North Sea region. A climate change assessment from published scientific work has been conducted as a kind of regional IPCC report, and a book has been produced that will be published by Springer in 2016. In the framework of the NOSCCA project, we examine past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period, roughly the past 200 years, based on observations and reanalyses. The variables addressed in this presentation are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). While air temperature over land, not unexpectedly, has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, with strongest trends in spring and in the north of the region, a precipitation increase has been observed in the north and a decrease in the south of the region. This pattern goes along with a north-eastward shift of storm tracks and is in agreement with climate model projections under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. For other variables, it is not obvious which part of the observed changes may be due to anthropogenic activities and which is internally forced. It remains also unclear to what extent atmospheric circulation over the North Sea region is influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades. There are indications of an increase in the number of deep cyclones (but not in the total number of cyclones), while storminess since the late 19th century shows no robust trends. The persistence of circulation types appears to have increased over the last century, and consequently, there is an indication for 'more extreme' extreme events. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess

Theoretical investigation and mathematical modelling of a wind energy system case study for Mediterranean and Red Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shata, Ahmed Shata Ahmed

2008-06-26

Fossil fuel is getting more and more expensive every year, and is not readily available in some remote locations. Today, wind power can be harnessed to provide some or all of the power for many useful tasks such as generating electricity, pumping water and heating a house or barn. Egypt has two coastal areas that show significant promise for wind energy exploitation; the north coast on the Mediterranean Sea and the east coast on the Red Sea. The wind energy is utilized along the coast of Mediterranean Sea in Egypt on few occasions, while from national programs for wind energy utilization in Egypt, at the Red Sea coast, the master plan calls for 600 MW which are expected to be achieved by the year 2005. The contribution of fossil fuels (oil and natural gas) to electricity production in Egypt accounts for about 79% of total production, while 21% is hydropower. The demand is expected to grow rapidly to meet the large requirements of future projects. Studies showed that there is an additional need of annual electricity generation capacity around 1000 MW/year up to 2017 [14]. The purpose of this thesis is to present a new analytical method for the calculation of the wind energy potential available along the north coast of the Mediterranean Sea and the east coast of Red Sea in Egypt and moreover, it estimates the possible electrical power generated by large wind turbines and the expected cost in Euro cent/kWh for the power level of 2000 kW. It is hoped that the data analysis will help to identify good sites in Egypt for new wind turbine installations. This evaluation is hoped to trigger the use of large wind turbines at the selected sites along the coasts of Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea in Egypt. (orig.)

Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

2016-04-01

The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

Ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric composition: Significance of the Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naqvi, S.W.A.; Jayakumar, D.A.

-deficiency at mid-depths in this region modulates oceanic combined nitrogen inventory and consequently biological productivity. Due to a delicate biogeochemical balance the Arabian Sea is expected to be among the first to react to potential anthropogenic...

Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

Combining sea state and land subsidence rates in an assessment of flooding hazards at the Danish North Sea coast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, Niels; Knudsen, Per

Sand nourishments (2-3 M3/y) counteract erosion on the central North Sea coast of Denmark and dikes and artificial dunes protect the low-lying hinterland from flooding. The fisheries towns of Thyboron, Thorsminde and Hvide Sande are all liable to flooding during storm surges. Tide gauge series fr...... the coast are presented and the town of Thyboron is used as a case where, in addition to SLR and extremes, analyses of land movement and ocean-groundwater interactions are included in an integrated method for assessing future coastal flooding hazards.......Sand nourishments (2-3 M3/y) counteract erosion on the central North Sea coast of Denmark and dikes and artificial dunes protect the low-lying hinterland from flooding. The fisheries towns of Thyboron, Thorsminde and Hvide Sande are all liable to flooding during storm surges. Tide gauge series from...

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Metagenomic studies of the Red Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Behzad, Hayedeh; Ibarra, Martin Augusto; Mineta, Katsuhiko; Gojobori, Takashi

2016-02-01

Metagenomics has significantly advanced the field of marine microbial ecology, revealing the vast diversity of previously unknown microbial life forms in different marine niches. The tremendous amount of data generated has enabled identification of a large number of microbial genes (metagenomes), their community interactions, adaptation mechanisms, and their potential applications in pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based industries. Comparative metagenomics reveals that microbial diversity is a function of the local environment, meaning that unique or unusual environments typically harbor novel microbial species with unique genes and metabolic pathways. The Red Sea has an abundance of unique characteristics; however, its microbiota is one of the least studied among marine environments. The Red Sea harbors approximately 25 hot anoxic brine pools, plus a vibrant coral reef ecosystem. Physiochemical studies describe the Red Sea as an oligotrophic environment that contains one of the warmest and saltiest waters in the world with year-round high UV radiations. These characteristics are believed to have shaped the evolution of microbial communities in the Red Sea. Over-representation of genes involved in DNA repair, high-intensity light responses, and osmoregulation were found in the Red Sea metagenomic databases suggesting acquisition of specific environmental adaptation by the Red Sea microbiota. The Red Sea brine pools harbor a diverse range of halophilic and thermophilic bacterial and archaeal communities, which are potential sources of enzymes for pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based application. Understanding the mechanisms of these adaptations and their function within the larger ecosystem could also prove useful in light of predicted global warming scenarios where global ocean temperatures are expected to rise by 1-3°C in the next few decades. In this review, we provide an overview of the published metagenomic studies that were conducted in the Red Sea, and

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

OpenAIRE

d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-01-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

Dumping of radioactive waste in the Barents and Kara seas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salbu, B.; Christensen, G.C.

1995-01-01

To evaluate the level of radioactive contamination in the Kara Sea and to assess short- and long-term consequences of dumped radioactive waste, joint Russian-Norwegian expeditions have been performed annually since 1992. Results from the 1992 joint expedition to the Kara Sea demonstrated very low concentrations of radionuclides in waters and sediments. Contributions from different sources: global fallout, river transport, marine transport of discharges from European reprocessing plants and of fallout from Chernobyl, could be identified. From the expeditions in 1993 and 1994 to three bays at Novaya Zemlya, local contamination in the Stepovogo and the Abrosimov bays due to leakage from the dumped radioactive waste could be confirmed. Results from the 1994 expedition will be published in 1995. The levels of radioactivity in the Kara Sea are, however, very low and represent at present an extremely low impact on man and the marine ecosystem. (Author)

Potential Osteoporosis Recovery by Deep Sea Water through Bone Regeneration in SAMP8 Mice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hen-Yu Liu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the therapeutic potential of deep sea water (DSW on osteoporosis. Previously, we have established the ovariectomized senescence-accelerated mice (OVX-SAMP8 and demonstrated strong recovery of osteoporosis by stem cell and platelet-rich plasma (PRP. Deep sea water at hardness (HD 1000 showed significant increase in proliferation of osteoblastic cell (MC3T3 by MTT assay. For in vivo animal study, bone mineral density (BMD was strongly enhanced followed by the significantly increased trabecular numbers through micro-CT examination after a 4-month deep sea water treatment, and biochemistry analysis showed that serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP activity was decreased. For stage-specific osteogenesis, bone marrow-derived stromal cells (BMSCs were harvested and examined. Deep sea water-treated BMSCs showed stronger osteogenic differentiation such as BMP2, RUNX2, OPN, and OCN, and enhanced colony forming abilities, compared to the control group. Interestingly, most untreated OVX-SAMP8 mice died around 10 months; however, approximately 57% of DSW-treated groups lived up to 16.6 months, a life expectancy similar to the previously reported life expectancy for SAMR1 24 months. The results demonstrated the regenerative potentials of deep sea water on osteogenesis, showing that deep sea water could potentially be applied in osteoporosis therapy as a complementary and alternative medicine (CAM.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Global change in marine ecosystems: implications for semi-enclosed Arabian seas

KAUST Repository

Duarte, Carlos M.

2015-12-07

Global Change has been defined as the impact of human activities on the key processes that determine the functioning of the Biosphere. Global Change is a major threat for marine ecosystems and includes climate change as well as other global impacts such as inputs of pollutants, overfishing and coastal sprawl. The Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas, including the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, have supported human livelihoods in the Arabian Peninsula over centuries and continue to do so, but are also threatened by Global Change. These threats are particularly severe as Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas already present rather extreme conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. The vulnerability of the unique marine ecosystems of the Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors is largely unknown, but predictions based on first principles suggest that they may be at or near the tipping point for many pressures, such as warming and hypoxia. There is an urgent need to implement international collaborative research programs to accelerate our understanding of the vulnerability of Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors in order to inform conservation and management plans to ensure these Seas continue to support the livelihoods and well-being of the Arab nations.

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

Science.gov (United States)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

An efficient forward-reverse expectation-maximization algorithm for statistical inference in stochastic reaction networks

KAUST Repository

Vilanova, Pedro

2016-01-01

reaction networks (SRNs). We apply this stochastic representation to the computation of efficient approximations of expected values of functionals of SRN bridges, i.e., SRNs conditional on their values in the extremes of given time-intervals. We then employ

Demonstration of measuring sea fog with an SNSPD-based Lidar system.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jiang; Chen, Yajun; Zhang, Labao; Jia, Xiaoqing; Feng, Zhijun; Wu, Ganhua; Yan, Xiachao; Zhai, Jiquan; Wu, Yang; Chen, Qi; Zhou, Xiaoying; Wang, Zhizhong; Zhang, Chi; Kang, Lin; Chen, Jian; Wu, Peiheng

2017-11-08

The monitor of sea fogs become more important with the rapid development of marine activities. Remote sensing through laser is an effective tool for monitoring sea fogs, but still challengeable for large distance. We demonstrated a Long-distance Lidar for sea fog with superconducting nanowire single-photon detector (SNSPD), which extended the ranging area to a 180-km diameter area. The system, which was verified by using a benchmark distance measurement of a known island, is applied to the Mie scattering weather prediction Lidar system. The fog echo signal distribution in the range of 42.3∼63.5 km and 53.2∼74.2 km was obtained by the Lidar system. Then the fog concentration and the velocity of the fog were deduced from the distribution, which is consistent with the weather prediction. The height of the sea fog is about two hundred meter while the visibility at this height is about 90 km due to the Earth's radius of curvature. Therefore, the capability of this SNSPD-based Lidar was close to the theoretical limit for sea fog measurements for extremely high signal-to-noise ratio of SNSPD.

Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2016-04-01

How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

Red Sea circulation during marine isotope stage 5e

Science.gov (United States)

Siccha, Michael; Biton, Eli; Gildor, Hezi

2015-04-01

We have employed a regional Massachusetts Institute of Technology oceanic general circulation model of the Red Sea to investigate its circulation during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, the peak of the last interglacial, approximately 125 ka before present. Compared to present-day conditions, MIS 5e was characterized by higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, accompanied by increases in air temperature of more than 2°C and global sea level approximately 8 m higher than today. As a consequence of the increased seasonality, intensified monsoonal conditions with increased winds, rainfall, and humidity in the Red Sea region are evident in speleothem records and supported by model simulations. To assess the dominant factors responsible for the observed changes, we conducted several sensitivity experiments in which the MIS 5 boundary conditions or forcing parameters were used individually. Overall, our model simulation for the last interglacial maximum reconstructs a Red Sea that is colder, less ventilated and probably more oligotrophic than at present day. The largest alteration in Red Sea circulation and properties was found for the simulation of the northward displacement and intensification of the African tropical rain belt during MIS 5e, leading to a notable increase in the fresh water flux into the Red Sea. Such an increase significantly reduced the Red Sea salinity and exchange volume of the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea reacted to the MIS 5e insolation forcing by the expected increase in seasonal sea surface temperature amplitude and overall cooling caused by lower temperatures during deep water formation in winter.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme

Thermal Implications for Extreme Fast Charge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-14

Present-day thermal management systems for battery electric vehicles are inadequate in limiting the maximum temperature rise of the battery during extreme fast charging. If the battery thermal management system is not designed correctly, the temperature of the cells could reach abuse temperatures and potentially send the cells into thermal runaway. Furthermore, the cell and battery interconnect design needs to be improved to meet the lifetime expectations of the consumer. Each of these aspects is explored and addressed as well as outlining where the heat is generated in a cell, the efficiencies of power and energy cells, and what type of battery thermal management solutions are available in today's market. Thermal management is not a limiting condition with regard to extreme fast charging, but many factors need to be addressed especially for future high specific energy density cells to meet U.S. Department of Energy cost and volume goals.

The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

2016-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

The Large Hadron Collider - Expectations and Reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Litov, Leandar

2010-01-01

The Large Hadron Colider (LHC) is the biggest particle accelerator in the world designed to accelerate protons and heavy ions to extremely high energies. The four detector complexes installed around the beam crossing points, are expected to shed light on some of the more fundamental questions about our Universe ever asked--what are the fundamental constituents of the matter, what are the forces controlling their behavior and what is the structure of the space-time. In November, the LHC will be restarted and the detector complexes are expected to commence taking the first collision data. The physical motivation for the LHC experimental program and some open questions of the Standard Model of strong and electroweak interactions (SM) are discussed. Special attention is paid to observation of signatures for physics beyond the SM and the discovery potential of the LHC experiments is commented. One of the two general-purpose detector complexes (CMS, the Compact Muon Solenoid) is described briefly.

Physiological performance and thermal tolerance of major Red Sea macrophytes

KAUST Repository

Weinzierl, Michael S.

2017-12-01

As anthropogenically-forced ocean temperatures continue to rise, the physiological response of marine macrophytes becomes exceedingly relevant. The Red Sea is a semi-isolated sea- the warmest in the world (SST up to 34°C) - already exhibiting signs of rapid warming rates exceeding those of other tropical oceans. This will have profound effects on the physiology of marine organisms, specifically marine macrophytes, which have direct influence on the dynamic carbonate system of the Red Sea. The aim of this paper is to define the physiological capability and thermal optima and limits of six ecologically important Red Sea macrophytes- ranging from seagrasses to calcifying and non-calcifying algae- and to describe the effects of increasing thermal stress on the performance and limits of each macrophyte in terms of activation energy. Of the species considered, Halophila stipulacae, Halimeda optunia, Halimeda monile and Padina pavonica thrive in thermal extremes and may be more successful in future Red Sea warming scenarios. Specifically, Halimeda opuntia increased productivity and calcification rates up to 38°C, making it the most thermally resilient macrophyte. Halophila stipulacae is the most productive seagrass, and hence has the greatest positive effect on Omega saturation state and offers chemical buffer capacity to future ocean acidification.

EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Oleynikov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

Low Carbon sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahasheer, Hanan; Serrano, Oscar; Duarte, Carlos M; Arias-Ortiz, Ariane; Masque, Pere; Irigoien, Xabier

2017-08-29

Mangroves forests of Avicennia marina occupy about 135 km 2 in the Red Sea and represent one of the most important vegetated communities in this otherwise arid and oligotrophic region. We assessed the soil organic carbon (C org ) stocks, soil accretion rates (SAR; mm y -1 ) and soil C org sequestration rates (g C org m -2 yr -1 ) in 10 mangrove sites within four locations along the Saudi coast of the Central Red Sea. Soil C org density and stock in Red Sea mangroves were among the lowest reported globally, with an average of 4 ± 0.3 mg C org cm -3 and 43 ± 5 Mg C org ha -1 (in 1 m-thick soils), respectively. Sequestration rates of C org , estimated at 3 ± 1 and 15 ± 1 g C org m -2 yr -1 for the long (millennia) and short (last century) temporal scales, respectively, were also relatively low compared to mangrove habitats from more humid bioregions. In contrast, the accretion rates of Central Red Sea mangroves soils were within the range reported for global mangrove forests. The relatively low C org sink capacity of Red Sea mangroves could be due to the extreme environmental conditions such as low rainfall, nutrient limitation and high temperature, reducing the growth rates of the mangroves and increasing soil respiration rates.

Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

2016-12-01

Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane

Glacial conditions in the Red Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rohling, Eelco J.

1994-10-01

In this paper, results from previous studies on planktonic foraminifera, δ18O, and global sea level are combined to discuss climatic conditions in the Red Sea during the last glacial maximum (18,000 B.P.). First, the influence of 120-m sea level lowering on the exchange transport through the strait of Bab-el-Mandab is considered. This strait is the only natural connection of the Red Sea to the open ocean. Next, glacial Red Sea outflow salinity is estimated (about 48 parts per thousand) from the foraminiferal record. Combined, these results yield an estimate of the glacial net water deficit, which appears to have been quite similar to the present (about 2 m yr-1). Finally, budget calculation of δ18O fluxes suggests that the glacial δ18O value of evaporation was about 50% of the present value. This is considered to have resulted from substantially increased mean wind speeds over the glacial Red Sea, which would have caused a rapid drop in the kinematic fractionation factor for 18O. The sensitivity of the calculated values for water deficit and isotopic fractionation to the various assumptions and estimates is evaluated in the discussion. Improvents are to be expected especially through research on the glacial salinity contrast between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. It is argued, however, that such future improvement will likely result in a worsening of the isotopic discrepancy, thus increasing the need for an additional mechanism that influenced fractionation (such as mean wind speed). This study demonstrates the need for caution when calculating paleosalinities from δ18O records under the assumption that the modern S∶δ18O relation has remained constant through time. Previously overlooked factors, such as mean wind speed, may have significantly altered that relation in the past.

Remote sensing the sea surface CO2 of the Baltic Sea using the SOMLO methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Parard, G.; Charantonis, A. A.; Rutgerson, A.

2015-06-01

Studies of coastal seas in Europe have noted the high variability of the CO2 system. This high variability, generated by the complex mechanisms driving the CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate estimation of these mechanisms. This is particularly pronounced in the Baltic Sea, where the mechanisms driving the fluxes have not been characterized in as much detail as in the open oceans. In addition, the joint availability of in situ measurements of CO2 and of sea-surface satellite data is limited in the area. In this paper, we used the SOMLO (self-organizing multiple linear output; Sasse et al., 2013) methodology, which combines two existing methods (i.e. self-organizing maps and multiple linear regression) to estimate the ocean surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the Baltic Sea from the remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, coloured dissolved organic matter, net primary production, and mixed-layer depth. The outputs of this research have a horizontal resolution of 4 km and cover the 1998-2011 period. These outputs give a monthly map of the Baltic Sea at a very fine spatial resolution. The reconstructed pCO2 values over the validation data set have a correlation of 0.93 with the in situ measurements and a root mean square error of 36 μatm. Removing any of the satellite parameters degraded this reconstructed CO2 flux, so we chose to supply any missing data using statistical imputation. The pCO2 maps produced using this method also provide a confidence level of the reconstruction at each grid point. The results obtained are encouraging given the sparsity of available data, and we expect to be able to produce even more accurate reconstructions in coming years, given the predicted acquisition of new data.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

Sea surface temperature variability in the North Western Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion) during the Common Era

Science.gov (United States)

Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Jalali, Bassem; Martrat, Belen; Schmidt, Sabine; Bassetti, Maria-Angela; Kallel, Nejib

2016-12-01

This study investigates the multidecadal-scale variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the convection region of the Gulf of Lion (NW Mediterranean Sea) over the full past 2000 yr (Common Era) using alkenone biomarkers. Our data show colder SSTs by 1.7 °C over most of the first millennium (200-800 AD) and by 1.3 °C during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1400-1850 AD) than the 20th century mean (17.9 °C). Although on average warmer, those of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (1000-1200 AD) were lower by 1 °C. We found a mean SST warming of 2 °C/100 yr over the last century in close agreement with the 0.22 and 0.26 °C/decade values calculated for the western Mediterranean Sea from in situ and satellite data, respectively. Our results also reveal strongly fluctuating SSTs characterized by cold extremes followed by abrupt warming during the LIA. We suggest that the coldest decades of the LIA were likely caused by prevailing negative EA states and associated anticyclone blocking over the North Atlantic resulting in cold continental northeasterly winds to blow over Western Europe and the Mediterranean region.

Software challenges in extreme scale systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarkar, Vivek; Harrod, William; Snavely, Allan E

2009-01-01

Computer systems anticipated in the 2015 - 2020 timeframe are referred to as Extreme Scale because they will be built using massive multi-core processors with 100's of cores per chip. The largest capability Extreme Scale system is expected to deliver Exascale performance of the order of 10 18 operations per second. These systems pose new critical challenges for software in the areas of concurrency, energy efficiency and resiliency. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the concurrency and energy efficiency challenges on future software for Extreme Scale Systems. From an application viewpoint, the concurrency and energy challenges boil down to the ability to express and manage parallelism and locality by exploring a range of strong scaling and new-era weak scaling techniques. For expressing parallelism and locality, the key challenges are the ability to expose all of the intrinsic parallelism and locality in a programming model, while ensuring that this expression of parallelism and locality is portable across a range of systems. For managing parallelism and locality, the OS-related challenges include parallel scalability, spatial partitioning of OS and application functionality, direct hardware access for inter-processor communication, and asynchronous rather than interrupt-driven events, which are accompanied by runtime system challenges for scheduling, synchronization, memory management, communication, performance monitoring, and power management. We conclude by discussing the importance of software-hardware co-design in addressing the fundamental challenges for application enablement on Extreme Scale systems.

Application of the SEA Directive to EU structural funds: Perspectives on effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theophilou, Vassilia; Bond, Alan; Cashmore, Mat

2010-01-01

The European Union (EU) has two potentially conflicting policy goals: the Lisbon Agenda and the Cardiff process which, respectively, aim to make the EU most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, and integrate the environment into all EU policies. This research uses two case studies of Operational Programmes drawing on EU structural funds. Such programmes have recently been made subject to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) under the EU SEA Directive, and allowed an assessment of the substantive (does it achieve its goals) and transactive (is it cost efficient) effectiveness of the SEA process, (i.e. does it support the Cardiff process or the Lisbon agenda?). Documentary review and interviews were the primary method drawing on actors involved both in the two case studies, and within the EU. The results indicate that transactive and substantive effectiveness are intrinsically linked and that both cases demonstrated some substantive effectiveness, but only one was transactively effective. Effectiveness was judged to be a function of design, procedure, substance as well as transaction, influenced by political issues. As with other research, we find that perspectives of effectiveness are very much driven by individual expectations, suggesting that a true measure of effectiveness might be the extent to which SEA can change expectations.

Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2015-05-01

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Evaluating the substantive effectiveness of SEA: Towards a better understanding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doren, D. van; Driessen, P.P.J.; Schijf, B.; Runhaar, H.A.C.

2013-01-01

Evaluating the substantive effectiveness of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is vital in order to know to what extent the tool fulfills its purposes and produces expected results. However, the studies that have evaluated the substantive effectiveness of SEA produce varying outcomes as regards the tool's contribution to decision-making and have used a variety of approaches to appraise its effectiveness. The aim of this article is to discuss the theoretical concept of SEA substantive effectiveness and to present a new approach that can be applied for evaluation studies. The SEA effectiveness evaluation framework that will be presented is composed of concepts of, and approaches to, SEA effectiveness derived from SEA literature and planning theory. Lessons for evaluation can be learned from planning theory in particular, given its long history of analyzing and understanding how sources of information and decisions affect (subsequent) decision-making. Key concepts of this new approach are ‘conformance’ and ‘performance’. In addition, this article presents a systematic overview of process and context factors that can explain SEA effectiveness, derived from SEA literature. To illustrate the practical value of our framework for the assessment and understanding of substantive effectiveness of SEA, three Dutch SEA case studies are examined. The case studies have confirmed the usefulness of the SEA effectiveness assessment framework. The framework proved helpful in order to describe the cumulative influence of the three SEAs on decision-making and the ultimate plan. - Highlights: ► A new framework to evaluate the substantive effectiveness of SEA is presented. ► The framework is based on two key concepts: ‘conformance’ and ‘performance.’ ► The practical applicability of the framework is demonstrated by three Dutch cases. ► The framework allows for a more systematic understanding of SEA effectiveness. ► Finally, this paper presents explanations

Plastic accumulation in the Mediterranean sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés Cózar

Full Text Available Concentrations of floating plastic were measured throughout the Mediterranean Sea to assess whether this basin can be regarded as a great accumulation region of plastic debris. We found that the average density of plastic (1 item per 4 m2, as well as its frequency of occurrence (100% of the sites sampled, are comparable to the accumulation zones described for the five subtropical ocean gyres. Plastic debris in the Mediterranean surface waters was dominated by millimeter-sized fragments, but showed a higher proportion of large plastic objects than that present in oceanic gyres, reflecting the closer connection with pollution sources. The accumulation of floating plastic in the Mediterranean Sea (between 1,000 and 3,000 tons is likely related to the high human pressure together with the hydrodynamics of this semi-enclosed basin, with outflow mainly occurring through a deep water layer. Given the biological richness and concentration of economic activities in the Mediterranean Sea, the affects of plastic pollution on marine and human life are expected to be particularly frequent in this plastic accumulation region.

Plastic Accumulation in the Mediterranean Sea

KAUST Repository

Có zar, André s; Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Martí , Elisa; Gonzá lez-Gordillo, J. Ignacio; Ubeda, Bá rbara; Gá lvez, José Á .; Irigoien, Xabier; Duarte, Carlos M.

2015-01-01

Concentrations of floating plastic were measured throughout the Mediterranean Sea to assess whether this basin can be regarded as a great accumulation region of plastic debris. We found that the average density of plastic (1 item per 4 m2), as well as its frequency of occurrence (100% of the sites sampled), are comparable to the accumulation zones described for the five subtropical ocean gyres. Plastic debris in the Mediterranean surface waters was dominated by millimeter-sized fragments, but showed a higher proportion of large plastic objects than that present in oceanic gyres, reflecting the closer connection with pollution sources. The accumulation of floating plastic in the Mediterranean Sea (between 1,000 and 3,000 tons) is likely related to the high human pressure together with the hydrodynamics of this semi-enclosed basin, with outflow mainly occurring through a deep water layer. Given the biological richness and concentration of economic activities in the Mediterranean Sea, the affects of plastic pollution on marine and human life are expected to be particularly frequent in this plastic accumulation region.

Plastic Accumulation in the Mediterranean Sea

KAUST Repository

Cózar, Andrés

2015-04-01

Concentrations of floating plastic were measured throughout the Mediterranean Sea to assess whether this basin can be regarded as a great accumulation region of plastic debris. We found that the average density of plastic (1 item per 4 m2), as well as its frequency of occurrence (100% of the sites sampled), are comparable to the accumulation zones described for the five subtropical ocean gyres. Plastic debris in the Mediterranean surface waters was dominated by millimeter-sized fragments, but showed a higher proportion of large plastic objects than that present in oceanic gyres, reflecting the closer connection with pollution sources. The accumulation of floating plastic in the Mediterranean Sea (between 1,000 and 3,000 tons) is likely related to the high human pressure together with the hydrodynamics of this semi-enclosed basin, with outflow mainly occurring through a deep water layer. Given the biological richness and concentration of economic activities in the Mediterranean Sea, the affects of plastic pollution on marine and human life are expected to be particularly frequent in this plastic accumulation region.

Plastic accumulation in the Mediterranean sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Cózar, Andrés; Sanz-Martín, Marina; Martí, Elisa; González-Gordillo, J Ignacio; Ubeda, Bárbara; Gálvez, José Á; Irigoien, Xabier; Duarte, Carlos M

2015-01-01

Concentrations of floating plastic were measured throughout the Mediterranean Sea to assess whether this basin can be regarded as a great accumulation region of plastic debris. We found that the average density of plastic (1 item per 4 m2), as well as its frequency of occurrence (100% of the sites sampled), are comparable to the accumulation zones described for the five subtropical ocean gyres. Plastic debris in the Mediterranean surface waters was dominated by millimeter-sized fragments, but showed a higher proportion of large plastic objects than that present in oceanic gyres, reflecting the closer connection with pollution sources. The accumulation of floating plastic in the Mediterranean Sea (between 1,000 and 3,000 tons) is likely related to the high human pressure together with the hydrodynamics of this semi-enclosed basin, with outflow mainly occurring through a deep water layer. Given the biological richness and concentration of economic activities in the Mediterranean Sea, the affects of plastic pollution on marine and human life are expected to be particularly frequent in this plastic accumulation region.

Plastic Accumulation in the Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Cózar, Andrés; Sanz-Martín, Marina; Martí, Elisa; González-Gordillo, J. Ignacio; Ubeda, Bárbara; Gálvez, José Á.; Irigoien, Xabier; Duarte, Carlos M.

2015-01-01

Concentrations of floating plastic were measured throughout the Mediterranean Sea to assess whether this basin can be regarded as a great accumulation region of plastic debris. We found that the average density of plastic (1 item per 4 m2), as well as its frequency of occurrence (100% of the sites sampled), are comparable to the accumulation zones described for the five subtropical ocean gyres. Plastic debris in the Mediterranean surface waters was dominated by millimeter-sized fragments, but showed a higher proportion of large plastic objects than that present in oceanic gyres, reflecting the closer connection with pollution sources. The accumulation of floating plastic in the Mediterranean Sea (between 1,000 and 3,000 tons) is likely related to the high human pressure together with the hydrodynamics of this semi-enclosed basin, with outflow mainly occurring through a deep water layer. Given the biological richness and concentration of economic activities in the Mediterranean Sea, the affects of plastic pollution on marine and human life are expected to be particularly frequent in this plastic accumulation region. PMID:25831129

The Dependency between the Arabian Peninsula Wet Events and Sea Level Pressure Patterns during Spring Season

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Raj, Jerry

2014-01-01

This work investigates the relationships between regional extreme wet events in the Arabian Peninsula during the spring season (MAM) and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, S-mode principal components were computed

Legal education at sea via ATS-1. An evaluation of the T/S Golden Bear experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Connors, M. M.

1982-01-01

A course in maritime law was provided via ATS satellite to law students onboard ship. Classes were received while the ship was on the open seas and in the various ports visited. A half duplex audio channel provided the primary communication mode. All participants judged this pilot study to be extremely useful. Students were able to pursue their course work and to have the benefits of research guidance from academic advisors, while gaining practical, hands on experience at sea.

Challenging oil bioremediation at deep-sea hydrostatic pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Scoma

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The Deepwater Horizon (DWH accident has brought oil contamination of deep-sea environments to worldwide attention. The risk for new deep-sea spills is not expected to decrease in the future, as political pressure mounts to access deep-water fossil reserves, and poorly tested technologies are used to access oil. This also applies to the response to oil-contamination events, with bioremediation the only (biotechnology presently available to combat deep-sea spills. Many questions about the fate of petroleum-hydrocarbons at deep-sea remain unanswered, as much as the main constraints limiting bioremediation under increased hydrostatic pressures and low temperatures. The microbial pathways fueling oil take up are unclear, and the mild upregulation observed for beta-oxidation-related genes in both water and sediments contrasts with the high amount of alkanes present in the spilled-oil. The fate of solid alkanes (tar and that of hydrocarbons degradation rates was largely overlooked, as the reason why the most predominant hydrocarbonoclastic genera were not enriched at deep-sea, despite being present at hydrocarbon seeps at the Gulf of Mexico. This mini-review aims at highlighting the missing information in the field, proposing a holistic approach where in situ and ex situ studies are integrated to reveal the principal mechanisms accounting for deep-sea oil bioremediation.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2018-03-01

The winter Arctic atmosphere is under the influence of two very different circulation systems: extratropical cyclones travel along the primary North Atlantic storm track from Iceland toward the eastern Arctic, while the western Arctic is characterized by a quasi-stationary region of high pressure known as the Beaufort High. The winter (January through March) of 2017 featured an anomalous reversal of the normally anticyclonic surface winds and sea ice motion in the western Arctic. This reversal can be traced to a collapse of the Beaufort High as the result of the intrusion of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, along the East Siberian Coast, into the Arctic Basin. Thin sea ice as the result of an extremely warm autumn (October through December) of 2016 contributed to the formation of an anomalous thermal low over the Barents Sea that, along with a northward shift of the tropospheric polar vortex, permitted this intrusion. The collapse of the Beaufort High during the winter of 2017 was associated with simultaneous 2-sigma sea level pressure, surface wind, and sea ice circulation anomalies in the western Arctic. As the Arctic sea ice continues to thin, such reversals may become more common and impact ocean circulation, sea ice, and biology.

Recovery of uranium resources from sea water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurushima, Morihiro

1980-01-01

After the oil crisis in 1973, the development of atomic energy has become important as substitute energy, and the stable acquisition of uranium resources is indispensable, in order to promote smoothly the use of atomic energy. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has engaged actively in the project ''The survey on the technical development of the system for recovering uranium and others from sea water'' since 1974. 80% of the uranium resources in the world is distributed in USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia and Niger, and in near future, the price of uranium ores may be raised. Japan must promote powerfully the development of foreign uranium resources, but also it is very important to get domestic uranium by efficiently recovering the uranium dissolved in sea water, the amount of which was estimated at 4 billion tons, and its practical use is expected in 1990s. The uranium concentration in sea water is about 3 g in 1000 t sea water. The processes of separation and recovery are as follows: (1) adsorption of uranium to titanic acid powder adsorbent by bringing sea water in contact with it, (2) dissolving the collected uranium with ammonium carbonate, the desorption agent, (3) concentration of uranium solution by ion exchange method or ion flotation method to 2800 ppm. The outline of the model plant is explained. (Kako, I.)

Lessons from Suiyo Seamount studies, for understanding extreme (ancient?) microbial ecosystems in the deep-sea hydrothermal fields

Science.gov (United States)

Maruyama, A.; Higashi, Y.; Sunamura, M.; Urabe, T.

2004-12-01

Deep-sea hydrothermal ecosystems are driven with various geo-thermally modified, mainly reduced, compounds delivered from extremely hot subsurface environments. To date, several unique microbes including thermophilic archaeons have been isolated from/around vent chimneys. However, there is little information about microbes in over-vent and sub-vent fields. Here, we report several new findings on microbial diversity and ecology of the Suiyo Seamount that locates on the Izu-Bonin Arc in the northwest Pacific Ocean, as a result of the Japanese Archaean Park project, with special concern to the sub-vent biosphere. At first, we succeeded to reveal a very unique microbial ecosystem in hydrothermal plume reserved within the outer rim of the seamount crater, that is, it consisted of almost all metabolically active microbes belonged to only two Bacteria phylotypes, probably of sulfur oxidizers. In the center of the caldera seafloor (ca. 1,388-m deep) consisted mainly of whitish sands and pumices, we found many small chimneys (ca. 5-10 cm) and bivalve colonies distributed looking like gray to black patches. These geo/ecological features of the seafloor were supposed to be from a complex mixing of hydrothermal venting and strong water current near the seafloor. Through quantitative FISH analysis for various environmental samples, one of the two representative groups in the plume was assessed to be from some of the bivalve colonies. Using the Benthic Multi-coring System (BMS), total 10 points were drilled and 6 boreholes were maintained with stainless or titanium casing pipes. In the following submersible surveys, newly developed catheter- and column-type in situ growth chambers were deployed in and on the boreholes, respectively, for collecting indigenous sub-vent microbes. Finally, we succeeded to detect several new phylotypes of microbes in these chamber samples, e.g., within epsilon-Proteobacteria, a photosynthetic group of alpha-Proteobacteria, and hyperthermophile

A New Approach to Sea Transportation: An Application in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alper Erturk

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This study has been conducted to detect the strengths and the improvement requiring areas of sea transportation in Turkey via SWOT analysis, and the opportunities this sector brings to Turkey and the threats that might appear have been put forward in several aspects. When the necessary advances have been made considering the outcomes of this study, it can be foreseen that Turkish navigation can make a swift progress and assume its place in the top 5 mercantile fleets of the World Trade Fleet. Moreover, this new approach that can be developed through the example of Turkey, especially in the context of SWOT analysis methodology, can get to be seen as a role model before the other developing countries.Sea transportation is not merely a transportation sector. Along with goods and human transportation, ship building industry, port services, sea insurance and sea tourism are among the many naval activities. Because of all these, sea transportation has a significant place in international trade. The overall commercial value of world trade mounting up to 15 trillion US dollars, 9 trillion dollars of this has been conducted via sea transportation. In other words, 60 percent of world commerce has been done through sea transportation (GISBIR, 2013. Furthermore, the volume of the dry bulk market via sea transportation is expected to grow by 6 percent between the years 2014 and 2018 (GISBIR, 2013.

Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)

2010-11-15

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)

A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

Remote sensing algorithm for sea surface CO2 in the Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Parard, G.; Charantonis, A. A.; Rutgerson, A.

2014-08-01

Studies of coastal seas in Europe have brought forth the high variability in the CO2 system. This high variability, generated by the complex mechanisms driving the CO2 fluxes makes their accurate estimation an arduous task. This is more pronounced in the Baltic Sea, where the mechanisms driving the fluxes have not been as highly detailed as in the open oceans. In adition, the joint availability of in-situ measurements of CO2 and of sea-surface satellite data is limited in the area. In this paper, a combination of two existing methods (Self-Organizing-Maps and Multiple Linear regression) is used to estimate ocean surface pCO2 in the Baltic Sea from remotely sensed surface temperature, chlorophyll, coloured dissolved organic matter, net primary production and mixed layer depth. The outputs of this research have an horizontal resolution of 4 km, and cover the period from 1998 to 2011. The reconstructed pCO2 values over the validation data set have a correlation of 0.93 with the in-situ measurements, and a root mean square error is of 38 μatm. The removal of any of the satellite parameters degraded this reconstruction of the CO2 flux, and we chose therefore to complete any missing data through statistical imputation. The CO2 maps produced by this method also provide a confidence level of the reconstruction at each grid point. The results obtained are encouraging given the sparsity of available data and we expect to be able to produce even more accurate reconstructions in the coming years, in view of the predicted acquisitions of new data.

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

2016-11-01

Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-01-01

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-03-08

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2015-01-01

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

Science.gov (United States)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

Evolution of extreme high waters along the east coast of India and at the head of the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Antony, C.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Woodworth, P.L.

. The highest water levels above mean sea level have the greatest magnitude towards the northern part of the Bay, which decreases towards its south-west. Extreme high waters were observed to result from a combination of moderate, or even small, surges with large...

Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vestergaard, P.

2001-01-01

Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)

Chemical analysis of useful trace elements in sea water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katoh, Shunsaku; Fujii, Ayako; Miyai, Yoshitaka; Sakane, Kohji; Ogata, Noboru.

1983-01-01

The methods for the analysis of useful trace elements in sea water which have been tried so far are reviewed, and these methods are described briefly from the standpoint of studying the collection of resources. Ag and Au can be determined by concentrating sea water by ion-exchange method, solvent extraction method and electrodeposition method, then the elements are measured quantitatively by activation analysis and atomic absorption spectrochemical analysis. Sr, B and Li, which exist in relatively high concentration in sea water, are determined easily by atomic absorption spectrochemical analysis and absorption spectrometry. U, Mo and V are measured suitably by concentrating the elements by coprecipitation or solvent extraction method, and measuring by fluorescence analysis and arsenazo-3 method for U and through graphite-atomic absorption analysis for Mo and V. It has been revealed that the concentration of Ag and Au in sea water is extremely low, accordingly the recovery study is not conducted recently. On the other hand, the adsorption method using hydrated titanium oxide and amidoxim adsorbents for U, Mo and V, the adsorption method using aluminum adsorbent for Li, and the adsorption method using magnesium oxide and zirconium hydroxide and the solvent extraction method for B are hopeful to recover these elements. (Yoshitake, I.)

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dasgupta, S. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

2008-07-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dasgupta, Susmita (World Bank, Washington, DC (United States))

2008-07-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed

[Mini review] metagenomic studies of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Behzad, Hayedeh

2015-10-23

Metagenomics has significantly advanced the field of marine microbial ecology, revealing the vast diversity of previously unknown microbial life forms in different marine niches. The tremendous amount of data generated has enabled identification of a large number of microbial genes (metagenomes), their community interactions, adaptation mechanisms, and their potential applications in pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based industries. Comparative metagenomics reveals that microbial diversity is a function of the local environment, meaning that unique or unusual environments typically harbor novel microbial species with unique genes and metabolic pathways. The Red Sea has an abundance of unique characteristics; however, its microbiota is one of the least studied amongst marine environments. The Red Sea harbors approximately 25 hot anoxic brine pools, plus a vibrant coral reef ecosystem. Physiochemical studies describe the Red Sea as an oligotrophic environment that contains one of the warmest and saltiest waters in the world with year-round high UV radiations. These characteristics are believed to have shaped the evolution of microbial communities in the Red Sea. Over-representation of genes involved in DNA repair, high-intensity light responses, and osmolyte C1 oxidation were found in the Red Sea metagenomic databases suggesting acquisition of specific environmental adaptation by the Red Sea microbiota. The Red Sea brine pools harbor a diverse range of halophilic and thermophilic bacterial and archaeal communities, which are potential sources of enzymes for pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based application. Understanding the mechanisms of these adaptations and their function within the larger ecosystem could also prove useful in light of predicted global warming scenarios where global ocean temperatures are expected to rise by 1–3 °C in the next few decades. In this review, we provide an overview of the published metagenomic studies that were conducted in the

[Mini review] metagenomic studies of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Behzad, Hayedeh; Ibarra, Martin Augusto; Mineta, Katsuhiko; Gojobori, Takashi

2015-01-01

Metagenomics has significantly advanced the field of marine microbial ecology, revealing the vast diversity of previously unknown microbial life forms in different marine niches. The tremendous amount of data generated has enabled identification of a large number of microbial genes (metagenomes), their community interactions, adaptation mechanisms, and their potential applications in pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based industries. Comparative metagenomics reveals that microbial diversity is a function of the local environment, meaning that unique or unusual environments typically harbor novel microbial species with unique genes and metabolic pathways. The Red Sea has an abundance of unique characteristics; however, its microbiota is one of the least studied amongst marine environments. The Red Sea harbors approximately 25 hot anoxic brine pools, plus a vibrant coral reef ecosystem. Physiochemical studies describe the Red Sea as an oligotrophic environment that contains one of the warmest and saltiest waters in the world with year-round high UV radiations. These characteristics are believed to have shaped the evolution of microbial communities in the Red Sea. Over-representation of genes involved in DNA repair, high-intensity light responses, and osmolyte C1 oxidation were found in the Red Sea metagenomic databases suggesting acquisition of specific environmental adaptation by the Red Sea microbiota. The Red Sea brine pools harbor a diverse range of halophilic and thermophilic bacterial and archaeal communities, which are potential sources of enzymes for pharmaceutical and biotechnology-based application. Understanding the mechanisms of these adaptations and their function within the larger ecosystem could also prove useful in light of predicted global warming scenarios where global ocean temperatures are expected to rise by 1–3 °C in the next few decades. In this review, we provide an overview of the published metagenomic studies that were conducted in the

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

2018-02-20

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

Science.gov (United States)

Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Yiou, Pascal

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andy Taylor

2017-08-01

Full Text Available A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2010-01-01

Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long‐term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long‐term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wehner

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah

2016-01-01

The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...... catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme...... flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...

The KM3NeT deep-sea neutrino telescope

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Margiotta, Annarita

2014-12-01

KM3NeT is a deep-sea research infrastructure being constructed in the Mediterranean Sea. It will host the next generation Cherenkov neutrino telescope and nodes for a deep sea multidisciplinary observatory, providing oceanographers, marine biologists, and geophysicists with real time measurements. The neutrino telescope will complement IceCube in its field of view and exceed it substantially in sensitivity. Its main goal is the detection of high energy neutrinos of astrophysical origin. The detector will have a modular structure with six building blocks, each consisting of about 100 Detection Units (DUs). Each DU will be equipped with 18 multi-PMT digital optical modules. The first phase of construction has started and shore and deep-sea infrastructures hosting the future KM3NeT detector are being prepared in offshore Toulon, France and offshore Capo Passero on Sicily, Italy. The technological solutions for the neutrino detector of KM3NeT and the expected performance of the neutrino telescope are presented and discussed. - Highlights: • A deep-sea research infrastructure is being built in the Mediterranean Sea. • It will host a km{sup 3}-size neutrino telescope and a deep-sea multidisciplinary observatory. • The main goal of the neutrino telescope is the search for Galactic neutrino sources. • A major innovation is adopted in the design of the optical module. • 31 3 in. photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) will be hosted in the same glass sphere.

Probing safety of nanoparticles by outlining sea urchin sensing and signaling cascades.

Science.gov (United States)

Alijagic, Andi; Pinsino, Annalisa

2017-10-01

Among currently identified issues presenting risks and benefits to human and ocean health, engineered nanoparticles (ENP) represent a priority. Predictions of their economic and social impact appear extraordinary, but their release in the environment at an uncontrollable rate is in striking contrast with the extremely limited number of studies on environmental impact, especially on the marine environment. The sea urchin has a remarkable sensing environmental system whose function and diversity came into focus during the recent years, after sea urchin genome sequencing. The complex immune system may be the basis wherefore sea urchins can adapt to a dynamic environment and survive even in hazardous conditions both in the adult and in the embryonic life. This review is aimed at discussing the literature in nanotoxicological/ecotoxicological studies with a focus on stress and innate immune signaling in sea urchins. In addition, here we introduce our current development of in vitro-driven probes that could be used to dissect ENP aftermaths, suggesting their future use in immune-nanotoxicology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A success story of regional projects implemented for the management of marine environment. Turkish experience related to the black sea and the mediterranean sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goktepe, B.G.; Gungor, N.; Gungor, E.; Karakelle, B.

2004-01-01

Full text: A wide scope Regional Technical Co-operation Project RER/2/003 'Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region' is implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the period 1995-2001. This project was initiated in response to the needs of participating Member States - the six Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia and Turkey) to establish capabilities for reliably assessing radionuclides in the Black Sea environment and applying tracer techniques to marine pollution studies The project has various important aspects: Scientifically; one of the major environmental issue radioactivity pollution is addressed. Technically; laboratory capability for transuranic analysis is being developed. Economically; the reversing the ecological deterioration and developing sustainable uses of the Black Sea and its natural resources is one of the major interests. Politically; responsibility of pollution control and rehabilitation plans of six Black Sea countries are addressed through various convention and declarations. Socio-economically, fisheries and tourism sectors are expected to benefit. Highlights from the joint radioactivity-monitoring program of the project among six Black Sea countries are outlined. Examples from the Turkish monitoring work consist of the routine sampling of seawater, algae, mussels, fish samples and beach sand from the selected stations along the Black Sea coast are presented for illustration. The success of the Black Sea regional project has given rise to a new regional project 'Marine Environmental Assessment of the Mediterranean Region' based on the request of the member countries, which will be initiated in 2005 by the IAEA. The initial phase the project, its objectives and the schedule will be summarized. Key words: marine radioactivity, environmental management, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, regional cooperation

The Damage To The Armour Layer Due To Extreme Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Oztunali Ozbahceci, Berguzar; Ergin, Aysen; Takayama, Tomotsuka

2010-05-01

The sea waves are not regular but random and chaotic. In order to understand this randomness, it is common to make individual wave analysis in time domain or spectral analysis in frequency domain. Characteristic wave heights like Hmax, H%2,H1-10, H1-3, Hmean are obtained through individual wave analysis in time domain. These characteristic wave heights are important because they are used in the design of different type of coastal structures. It is common to use significant wave height, H1-3,for the design of rubble mound structures. Therefore, only spectrally derived or zero-crossing significant wave height is usually reported for the rubble mound breakwaters without any information on larger waves. However, even the values of H1-3are similar; some train of irregular waves may exhibit a large fluctuation of instantaneous wave energy, while another train may not show such a fluctuation (Goda, 1998). Moreover, freak or rogue wave, simply defined as the wave exceeding at least twice the significant wave height may also occur. Those larger waves were called as extreme waves in this study and the effect of extreme waves on the damage to the armour layer of rubble mound breakwaters was investigated by means of hydraulic model experiment. Rock armored rubble mound breakwater model with 1:1.5 slope was constructed in the wave channel of Hydraulics Laboratory of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto University, Japan. The model was consisted of a permeable core layer, a filter and armour layer with two stones thicknesses. Size of stones were same for both of the slopes as Dn50(armour)=0.034m, Dn50(filter)=0.021m and Dn50(core)=0.0148m for armour, filter and core layers, respectively. Time series which are approximately equal to 1000 waves, with similar significant wave height but different extreme wave height cases were generated. In order to generate necessary time series in the wave channel, they were firstly computed by numerically. For the numerical

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O

1987-01-01

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.

Cyanobacteria toxins in the Salton Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmichael, Wayne W; Li, RenHui

2006-04-19

The Salton Sea (SS) is the largest inland body of water in California: surface area 980 km2, volume 7.3 million acre-feet, 58 km long, 14-22 km wide, maximum depth 15 m. Located in the southeastern Sonoran desert of California, it is 85 m below sea level at its lowest point. It was formed between 1905 and 1907 from heavy river flows of the Colorado River. Since its formation, it has attracted both people and wildlife, including flocks of migratory birds that have made the Salton Sea a critical stopover on the Pacific flyway. Over the past 15 years wintering populations of eared grebe (Podiceps nigricollis) at the Salton Sea, have experienced over 200,000 mortalities. The cause of these large die-offs remains unknown. The unique environmental conditions of the Salton Sea, including salinities from brackish freshwater at river inlets to hypersaline conditions, extreme daily summer temperatures (>38 degrees C), and high nutrient loading from rivers and agricultural drainage favor eutrophic conditions that encourage algal blooms throughout the year. A significant component of these algal blooms are the prokaryotic group - the Cyanophyta or blue-green algae (also called Cyanobacteria). Since many Cyanobacteria produce toxins (the cyanotoxins) it became important to evaluate their presence and to determine if they are a contributing factor in eared-grebe mortalities at the Salton Sea. From November 1999 to April 2001, 247 water and sediment samples were received for phytoplankton identification and cyanotoxin analyses. Immunoassay (ELISA) screening of these samples found that eighty five percent of all water samples contained low but detectable levels of the potent cyclic peptide liver toxin called microcystins. Isolation and identification of cyanobacteria isolates showed that the picoplanktonic Synechococcus and the benthic filamentous Oscillatoria were dominant. Both organisms were found to produce microcystins dominated by microcystin-LR and YR. A laboratory strain