WorldWideScience

Sample records for expected extreme sea

  1. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  2. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  3. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-14

    Pattiaratchi, C., Jensen, J., 2013. Estimating extreme water level probabilities: a comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise ...will discuss with Jason Engle and determine the best way to proceed. • Kate will provide a copy of the storm climate analysis report that Andy Garcia...Gouldby, HR Wallingford) 12:50 to 2:00: Lunch 2:00 to 2:25: Best Practices and Analysis Methodologies (Jeff Melby, USACE) 2:25 to 3:10

  4. Changes in extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Christian; Gröger, Matthias; Andersson, Helén; Nerheim, Signild; Jönsson, Anette

    2016-04-01

    A newly developed shallow water model for the Baltic Sea and North Sea is presented. The model is validated by means of a comparison with hindcast simulations with observational data sets. The aim of the development is to provide and apply a modelling tool to model extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak. The model approach will support the direct analysis of extreme sea level observations in the past and provide the possibility to extend the statistical data base by producing very long time series or very large ensembles of coastal sea levels. This effort is intended to contribute to an assessment of risks due to storm surges and coastal flooding in the 21st century along the coast of Sweden. By using different RCP climate scenarios downscaled with a regional, coupled climate model atmospheric forcing is available to project possible changes in extreme sea levels into the future. Projected sea level rise, changes in dynamical sea level in the North East Atlantic and tidal forcing in the northern North Sea are applied as boundary condition which allows to investigate their impact on the dynamics of regional sea level variability. Initial experiments focus on the impact of model resolution, resolution in the atmospheric forcing and the amount of details necessary in the bathymetry to faithfully model coastal sea level in the Baltic Sea and North Sea.

  5. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  6. Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreia Ribeiro

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations.

  7. Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    . Especially in the initial phase of floating foundation concept development, site specific metocean data are usually not available. As the areas of interest are furthermore not covered by any design standard, in terms of design sea states, generic and in engineering terms applicable environmental background...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...

  8. Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Medford

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012 of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.

  9. Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bilyay

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/Hs ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of Hsrms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f–4, –5. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter Smax and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

  10. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  11. Insertion sequences enrichment in extreme Red sea brine pool vent

    KAUST Repository

    Elbehery, Ali H. A.

    2016-12-03

    Mobile genetic elements are major agents of genome diversification and evolution. Limited studies addressed their characteristics, including abundance, and role in extreme habitats. One of the rare natural habitats exposed to multiple-extreme conditions, including high temperature, salinity and concentration of heavy metals, are the Red Sea brine pools. We assessed the abundance and distribution of different mobile genetic elements in four Red Sea brine pools including the world’s largest known multiple-extreme deep-sea environment, the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. We report a gradient in the abundance of mobile genetic elements, dramatically increasing in the harshest environment of the pool. Additionally, we identified a strong association between the abundance of insertion sequences and extreme conditions, being highest in the harshest and deepest layer of the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. Our comparative analyses of mobile genetic elements in secluded, extreme and relatively non-extreme environments, suggest that insertion sequences predominantly contribute to polyextremophiles genome plasticity.

  12. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-01-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Ni?o and its atmospheric variabilit...

  13. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  14. Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

  15. Extreme Low Light Requirement for Algae Growth Underneath Sea Ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hancke, Kasper; Lund-Hansen, Lars C.; Lamare, Maxim L.

    2018-01-01

    Microalgae colonizing the underside of sea ice in spring are a key component of the Arctic foodweb as they drive early primary production and transport of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean interior. Onset of the spring bloom of ice algae is typically limited by the availability of light......, and the current consensus is that a few tens-of-centimeters of snow is enough to prevent sufficient solar radiation to reach underneath the sea ice. We challenge this consensus, and investigated the onset and the light requirement of an ice algae spring bloom, and the importance of snow optical properties...... for light penetration. Colonization by ice algae began in May under >1 m of first-year sea ice with approximate to 1 m thick snow cover on top, in NE Greenland. The initial growth of ice algae began at extremely low irradiance (...

  16. Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

    2011-08-01

    The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

  17. Modern sedimentation and extreme event in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Huang; Su, Chih-Chieh

    2016-04-01

    The South China Sea is the largest marginal sea of the northwest Pacific. It is situated at the plate boundary of the Eurasian, Philippine Sea, and Indian plates and also on the North Western Pacific corridor of typhoons. The unique tectonic and climatic environment makes it has to face the potential of seafloor destructions, like submarine landslides and slumps, and high sediment discharges which induced by typhoon from Philippine. In this study, we analysis the sediment properties of modern extreme event records in cores and attempt to evaluate the history of extreme events in the South China Sea. Twelve gravity cores were collected in the central South China Sea basin and around Taiping island by using R/V Ocean Research 1 from 2014 to 2015 and a series of analysis including multi-sensor core logger, XRF core scanner (Itrax), core surface images, X-radiographs, bulk density, grain size, Pb-210 chronology and X-ray diffractometer were conducted in this study. On core surface images, an obvious brownish oxidized layer exist in core top with higher Pb-210 activity beneath this oxidized layer, and we speculate this layer is caused by nature hazard. According to the sampling time, we conjecture the oxidized layer might formed by typhoon Haiyan in 2013. In addition, the Itrax data shows high manganese content only exist in this layer which might related to the modern industrial pollution delivered by typhoon induced flooding from Philippine. The sedimentation rate of the non-event years in these cores which derived from Pb-210 chronology method is about 0.02 ~0.03 cm/yr. On contrary, the event layer caused by Haiyan with a recorded maximum 87cm deposits in the South China Sea. This study aims to characterize the typhoon induced deposits in the turbidite layer and use it to identify whether the other event layers recorded in these cores were related to typhoon activities and to reconstruct the strong tropical cyclone history in the western Pacific.

  18. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  19. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  20. Simulations of The Extreme Precipitation Event Enhanced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakan Doǧan, Onur; Önol, Barış

    2016-04-01

    Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using regional climate model, RegCM4. The flood caused by excessive rain in August 26, 2010 killed 12 people and the landslides in Rize province have damaged many buildings. The station based two days total precipitation exceeds 200 mm. One of the usual suspects for this extreme event is positive anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea where the significant warming trend is clear in the last three decades. In August 2010, the monthly mean SST is higher than 3 °C with respect to the period of 1981-2010. We designed three sensitivity simulations with RegCM4 to define the effects of the Black Sea as a moisture source. The simulation domain with 10-km horizontal resolution covers all the countries bordering the Black Sea and simulation period is defined for entire August 2010. It is also noted that the spatial variability of the precipitation produced by the reference simulation (Sim-0) is consistent with the TRMM data. In terms of analysis of the sensitivity to SST, we forced the simulations by subtracting 1 °C (Sim-1), 2 °C (Sim-2) and 3 °C (Sim-3) from the ERA-Interim 6-hourly SST data (considering only the Black Sea). The sensitivity simulations indicate that daily total precipitation for all these simulations gradually decreased based on the reference simulation (Sim-0). 3-hourly maximum precipitation rates for Sim-0, Sim-1, Sim-2 and Sim-3 are 32, 25, 13 and 10.5 mm respectively over the hotspot region. Despite the fact that the simulations signal points out the same direction, degradation of the precipitation intensity does not indicate the same magnitude for all simulations. It is revealed that 2 °C (Sim-2) threshold is critical for SST sensitivity. We also calculated the humidity differences from the simulation and these

  1. USACE Extreme Sea Levels Advice on Guidance on Procedures to Evaluate and Adapt to Changes in Mean and Extreme Sea Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-09

    recommendations for best practise . Coastal Engineering, 81, 51–66. Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I.D., Jensen, J., in review. Determining extreme water return...2013. A UK best -practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines. Ocean Engineering. Germany Arns, A., Wahl

  2. Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

    2013-01-01

    The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... of extreme sea level events is identified using thirty-three well described extreme events throughout a period of 15 years. Analysis of the meteorological conditions during these events revealed that berm formation only occurred during 20% of all extreme events when onshore winds, high-energy wave action......-enclosed bays along the Baltic Sea. Quite often, the maximum water levels do not coincide with the maximum intensity of the wave driven processes because of seiches in the Baltic. In this paper, we look into the joined distribution of extreme water levels and high-energetic wave conditions at Feddet, a sandy...

  3. Korean mean and extreme sea levels projection under AR5 climate change scenarios using Monte-Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, W. Y.; Choi, J.; Okjeong, L.; Park, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, S.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise. However, the preparation capability for sea level rise of South Korea is insufficient. Global sea level rise due to climate change is causing a lot of damage to the coastal zone. In addition, since the coastal population in South Korea shows a growing trend, many coastal cities are likely to become more vulnerable to sea level rise. The impacts of future sea level rise will affect shoreline erosion, the disappearance of coastal wetlands, the intrusion of sea water, and increased flood vulnerability due to the performance reduction of the hydraulic structures. The purpose of this study is to estimate the increase amount of the Korea sea level rise under AR5 climate change scenarios. The study area is Busan, Incheon, Mokpo, and Sokcho, which are coastal cities representing South Korea. In order to consider the global and local components for future sea level rise at the same time, the accelerating rates of sea level rise for each city are first calculated using the global rate of sea level rise presented in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. After that, the local sea level rise trend derived from observations of each city is additionally considered, and the final future sea level rise is projected. In addition, uncertainties included in the acceleration rate from the global sea level rise and localized upward trend derived from local observations are reflected in probabilistic projection of the future sea level rise range. In a similar way, the extreme sea level rise is also estimated. Simulation results show that extreme sea levels in 2100 could rise by more than 1 meter. It is also expected to increase the rate of sea level rise gradually with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The results of this study will be utilized for flood vulnerability assessment in coastal areas of South Korea later. AcknowledgementThis research was supported by a grant `Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of

  4. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

  5. Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment of patent ductus arteriosus in extremely low birth weight infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordero, L; Nankervis, C A; Delooze, D; Giannone, P J

    2007-03-01

    Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment are common strategies for the prevention or management of symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus (sPDA). To compare the clinical responses of extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants to indomethacin prophylaxis with that of other infants who were managed expectantly by being treated with indomethacin or surgically only after an sPDA was detected. Retrospective cohort investigation of 167 ELBW infants who received indomethacin prophylaxis (study) and 167 ELBW infants (control) treated expectantly who were matched by year of birth (1999 to 2006), birth weight, gestational age (GA) and gender. Mothers of the two groups of infants were comparable demographically and on the history of preterm labor, pre-eclampsia, antepartum steroids and cesarean delivery. Study and control infants were similar in birth weight, GA, low 5 min Apgar scores, surfactant administration, the need for arterial blood pressure control, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and neonatal mortality. Necrotizing enterocolitis, spontaneous intestinal perforations, intraventricular hemorrhage grade III to IV, periventricular leukomalacia and stage 3 to 5 retinopathy of prematurity occurred also with similar frequency in both groups of infants. In the indomethacin prophylaxis group, 29% of the infants developed sPDA, and of them 38% responded to indomethacin treatment. In the expectantly treated group, 37% developed sPDA, and of them 59% responded to indomethacin treatment. Overall, surgical ligation rate for sPDA was similar between both groups of patients. In our experience, indomethacin prophylaxis does not show any advantages over expectant early treatment on the management of sPDA in ELBW infants. Although no deleterious effects were observed, prophylaxis exposed a significant number of infants who may have never developed sPDA, to potential indomethacin-related complications.

  6. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...... and intentionality in relation to narrative and fiction....

  7. Extreme Longevity in Proteinaceous Deep-Sea Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Fallon, S J; Mucciarone, D A

    2009-02-09

    Deep-sea corals are found on hard substrates on seamounts and continental margins world-wide at depths of 300 to {approx}3000 meters. Deep-sea coral communities are hotspots of deep ocean biomass and biodiversity, providing critical habitat for fish and invertebrates. Newly applied radiocarbon age date from the deep water proteinaceous corals Gerardia sp. and Leiopathes glaberrima show that radial growth rates are as low as 4 to 35 {micro}m yr{sup -1} and that individual colony longevities are on the order of thousands of years. The management and conservation of deep sea coral communities is challenged by their commercial harvest for the jewelry trade and damage caused by deep water fishing practices. In light of their unusual longevity, a better understanding of deep sea coral ecology and their interrelationships with associated benthic communities is needed to inform coherent international conservation strategies for these important deep-sea ecosystems.

  8. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  9. When social inclusion is not enough: Implicit expectations of extreme inclusion in borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Panfilis, Chiara; Riva, Paolo; Preti, Emanuele; Cabrino, Chiara; Marchesi, Carlo

    2015-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD) might feel rejected even when socially included by others. A psychological mechanism accounting for this response bias could be that objective social inclusion violates BPD patients' underlying implicit needs of "extreme" inclusion. Thus, this study investigated whether, during interpersonal exchanges, BPD patients report more rejection-related negative emotions and less feelings of social connection than controls unless they are faced with conditions of extreme social inclusion. Sixty-one BPD patients and 61 healthy controls completed a modified Cyberball paradigm. They were randomly assigned to a condition of ostracism, social inclusion, or overinclusion (a proxy for extreme social inclusion). They then rated their emotional states and feelings of social connection immediately and 20 min after the game. BPD patients reported greater levels of negative emotions than controls in the ostracism and the inclusion conditions, but not when overincluded. Furthermore, only for BPD participants was overinclusion associated with experiencing less negative emotions than the ostracism condition. However, BPD patients reported lower feelings of social connection than controls in any experimental situation. Thus, in BPD, a laboratory condition of "overinclusion" is associated with a reduction of negative emotions to levels comparable to those of control participants, but not with similar degrees of social connection. These results suggest that for BPD patients, even "including contexts" activate feelings of rejection. Their implicit expectations of idealized interpersonal inclusion may nullify the opportunity of experiencing "real" social connection and explain their distorted subjective experiences of rejection. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I.D.; Nicholls, R.J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.B.A.

    2017-01-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future

  11. Outcomes after expectant management of extremely preterm premature rupture of the membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmoor, Mara J; Bachman, Rebecca; Haney, Elaine I; Goldstein, Marci; Mackendrick, William

    2004-01-01

    This study was undertaken to assess contemporary outcomes in pregnancies managed expectantly after extremely preterm premature (< or =24 weeks) premature rupture of the membranes (EPPROM). We queried antepartum and ultrasound databases for patients with EPPROM. Data on pregnancy outcome and short-term neonatal outcomes were collected. Forty-six patients with EPPROM were studied. Patients were hospitalized at 24 weeks' gestation and given antibiotics and antenatal steroids. Median gestational age at PPROM was 22.0 weeks (range 16.9-24 weeks); 43 (93%) elected expectant management, 2 of whom later had an intrauterine fetal death. Median latency period to delivery was 13 days (range 0-96 days), with mean gestational age at delivery of 25.8+/-3.4 weeks. Overall survival was 47% (27 of 57 infants), after a median hospital stay of 71 days (range 17-209 days). Ten (37%) of the survivors have serious sequelae. Although significant pregnancy prolongation after previable PPROM occurs in many cases, neonatal outcomes remain poor.

  12. Interannual variability of anticyclone activity and temperature extremes in the Black sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalenko, O. Yu; Voskresenskaya, E. N.

    2018-01-01

    Manifestations of North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during its negative and positive phases and during different El Niño (EN) types in the anticyclone parameters and air temperature extreme thresholds in the Black sea region are studied. It is estimated quantitative characteristics of anticyclone frequency anomalies and temperature extremes associated with the NAO phases and the EN types.

  13. Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

  14. Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-09-01

    Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

  15. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua

    2018-04-01

    The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K; Latif, Mojib

    2016-08-30

    The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

  17. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for ‘translation’ of regional sea level rise...... evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders –often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level...

  18. Extrapolation of extreme sea levels: incorporation of Over-Threshold-Modeling to the Joint Probability Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazas, Franck; Hamm, Luc; Kergadallan, Xavier

    2013-04-01

    In France, the storm Xynthia of February 27-28th, 2010 reminded engineers and stakeholders of the necessity for an accurate estimation of extreme sea levels for the risk assessment in coastal areas. Traditionally, two main approaches exist for the statistical extrapolation of extreme sea levels: the direct approach performs a direct extrapolation on the sea level data, while the indirect approach carries out a separate analysis of the deterministic component (astronomical tide) and stochastic component (meteorological residual, or surge). When the tidal component is large compared with the surge one, the latter approach is known to perform better. In this approach, the statistical extrapolation is performed on the surge component then the distribution of extreme seal levels is obtained by convolution of the tide and surge distributions. This model is often referred to as the Joint Probability Method. Different models from the univariate extreme theory have been applied in the past for extrapolating extreme surges, in particular the Annual Maxima Method (AMM) and the r-largest method. In this presentation, we apply the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach for declustering extreme surge events, coupled with the Poisson-GPD model for fitting extreme surge peaks. This methodology allows a sound estimation of both lower and upper tails of the stochastic distribution, including the estimation of the uncertainties associated to the fit by computing the confidence intervals. After convolution with the tide signal, the model yields the distribution for the whole range of possible sea level values. Particular attention is paid to the necessary distinction between sea level values observed at a regular time step, such as hourly, and sea level events, such as those occurring during a storm. Extremal indexes for both surges and levels are thus introduced. This methodology will be illustrated with a case study at Brest, France.

  19. Effects of the expected sea level rise on avicennia marina L: a case study in Qatar

    OpenAIRE

    Sayed, O. H. [اسامة هنداوي سيد

    1995-01-01

    A simulation of the expected sea levels rise was carried out by imposing a state of protracted flooding on seedlings of the mangrove species Avicennia marina L. under natural conditions. The imposed flooding resulted in stomatal closure, loss of the variable component of prompt chlorophyll flourescence induction kinetics, and a slight reduction of leaf water potential. However, signs of fast recovery were observed after the period of flooding. The results indicated that A. marina possessed a ...

  20. Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

    2017-04-01

    The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme

  1. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-01-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  2. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-08-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

  3. Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events

    OpenAIRE

    J. C. Ortiz-Royero; L. J. Otero; J. C. Restrepo; J. Ruiz; M. Cadena

    2013-01-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological–marine repor...

  4. What do referred patients with upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders expect of a multidisciplinary treatment and what is the perceived value?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Eline M.; Hugenholtz, Nathalie I. R.; Sluiter, Judith K.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose. To describe reasons for not starting and to determine expectations and perceived value of multidisciplinary treatment among referred patients, sick-listed due to upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders Method. Twenty-six randomly chosen referred patients who did not start the treatment

  5. Sea Hare Aplysia punctata (Mollusca: Gastropoda) Can Maintain Shell Calcification under Extreme Ocean Acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Nicholas; Dupont, Sam; Sigwart, Julia D

    2016-10-01

    Ocean acidification is expected to cause energetic constraints upon marine calcifying organisms such as molluscs and echinoderms, because of the increased costs of building or maintaining shell material in lower pH. We examined metabolic rate, shell morphometry, and calcification in the sea hare Aplysia punctata under short-term exposure (19 days) to an extreme ocean acidification scenario (pH 7.3, ∼2800 μatm pCO 2 ), along with a group held in control conditions (pH 8.1, ∼344 μatm pCO 2 ). This gastropod and its congeners are broadly distributed and locally abundant grazers, and have an internal shell that protects the internal organs. Specimens were examined for metabolic rate via closed-chamber respirometry, followed by removal and examination of the shell under confocal microscopy. Staining using calcein determined the amount of new calcification that occurred over 6 days at the end of the acclimation period. The width of new, pre-calcified shell on the distal shell margin was also quantified as a proxy for overall shell growth. Aplysia punctata showed a 30% reduction in metabolic rate under low pH, but calcification was not affected. This species is apparently able to maintain calcification rate even under extreme low pH, and even when under the energetic constraints of lower metabolism. This finding adds to the evidence that calcification is a largely autonomous process of crystallization that occurs as long as suitable haeomocoel conditions are preserved. There was, however, evidence that the accretion of new, noncalcified shell material may have been reduced, which would lead to overall reduced shell growth under longer-term exposures to low pH independent of calcification. Our findings highlight that the chief impact of ocean acidification upon the ability of marine invertebrates to maintain their shell under low pH may be energetic constraints that hinder growth of supporting structure, rather than maintenance of calcification.

  6. Extreme sea events during the last millennium in the northeast of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raji, O.; Dezileau, L.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Niazi, S.; Snoussi, M.; Martinez, P.

    2015-02-01

    The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the area's most vulnerable to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-event record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2). It is located along the western Mediterranean, which has a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from the Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by much overwash, which indicate how intensely it has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC© gravity coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long) was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify extreme sea events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentological and geochemical data. Three paleoevents were identified; all of them are concentrated over the last 500 years, and the most recent event corresponds to the 1889 storm. For the others deposits, it is difficult to determine exactly their origin; however, the high frequency of storm events over the relevant period and the absence of historical tsunamis evidence is more in favor of the meteorological origin.

  7. Sea extreme events during the last millennium in north-east of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raji, O.; Dezileau, L.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Niazi, S.; Snoussi, M.; Martinez, P.

    2014-03-01

    The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the most vulnerable area to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-events record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2) located along the Western Mediterranean which presents a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by many overwashes, which indicate how intensely has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long) was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify sea extreme events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentogical and geochemical data. The preliminary results show that the identified paleo-events are concentrated over the last 500 years. The challenge that remains now is to distinguish between the tsunami and the storm deposits.

  8. NCI study finds extreme obesity may shorten life expectancy up to 14 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extremely obese people have increased risks of dying from cancer and many other causes including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and kidney and liver diseases, according to results of an analysis of data pooled from 20 large studies of people from three

  9. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Y.; Maskey, S.; Uhlenbrook, S.

    2013-01-01

    Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC

  10. An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

    2016-03-01

    This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

  11. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  12. Analysis of extreme sea level along the east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Sundar, D.; Blackman, D.

    described above for extreme sea level analysis has a disadvantage that only the highest value of sea level in a year is used and the remaining data are not considered. It is possible that more than one storm occurs in a year. Moreover, a success- ful... application of the annual maximum method requires many years of data, say, at least 30 years [Pugh, 1987]. In order to overcome this disadvantage, Smith [1986] and Tawn [1988] extended this theory for the development of r-largest annual maximum method...

  13. Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall : The mean when a related variable is extreme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.; Zhou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p>0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as , where QY(1−p) is the (1−p)th quantile of the distribution of Y. The MES is an important factor when

  14. A Long Expected Party — The First Stone Ceremony for the Extremely Large Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zeeuw, T.; Comerón, F.; Tamai, R.

    2017-06-01

    The ceremony to seal the time capsule, signalling the beginning of construction of the dome and main telescope structure for the Extremely Large Telescope, took place at the Paranal Observatory on 26 May 2017, in the presence of the President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet and many international guests. Owing to high winds, the ceremony could not take place as planned on the levelled site on Cerro Armazones, but instead was held at the Paranal Residencia. A brief report of the event and its organisation is presented, and the welcome speech by the ESO Director General is included.

  15. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  16. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  17. Estimation of the Marginal Expected Shortfall : The Mean when a Related Variable is Extreme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.; Zhou, C.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y . For a given very small value of p > 0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as E(X | Y > QY (1−p)), where QY (1−p) is the (1−p)-th quantile of the distribution of Y . The

  18. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

    2017-07-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

    2017-12-01

    A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

  20. Daily sea level prediction at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imani, Moslem; Kao, Huan-Chin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Kuo, Chung-Yen

    2018-02-01

    The analysis and the prediction of sea level fluctuations are core requirements of marine meteorology and operational oceanography. Estimates of sea level with hours-to-days warning times are especially important for low-lying regions and coastal zone management. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the applicability and capability of extreme learning machine (ELM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) models for predicting sea level variations and compare their performances with powerful machine learning methods, namely, support vector machine (SVM) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The input dataset from the period of January 2004 to May 2011 used in the study was obtained from the Dongshi tide gauge station in Chiayi, Taiwan. Results showed that the ELM and RVM models outperformed the other methods. The performance of the RVM approach was superior in predicting the daily sea level time series given the minimum root mean square error of 34.73 mm and the maximum determination coefficient of 0.93 (R2) during the testing periods. Furthermore, the obtained results were in close agreement with the original tide-gauge data, which indicates that RVM approach is a promising alternative method for time series prediction and could be successfully used for daily sea level forecasts.

  1. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  2. Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Vagenas

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The marine surface wind field (10 m over the Greek seas is analyzed in this study using The RegCM. The model’s spatial resolution is dynamically downscaled to 10 km × 10 km, in order to simulate more efficiently the complex coastlines and the numerous islands of Greece. Wind data for the 1980–2000 and 2080–2100 periods are produced and evaluated against real observational data from 15 island and coastal meteorological stations in order to assess the model’s ability to reproduce the main characteristics of the surface wind fields. RegCM model shows a higher simulating skill to project seasonal wind speeds and direction during summer and the lowest simulating skill in the cold period of the year. Extreme wind speed thresholds were estimated using percentiles indices and three Peak Over Threshold (POT techniques. The mean threshold values of the three POT methods are used to examine the inter-annual distribution of extreme winds in the study region. The highest thresholds were observed in three poles; the northeast, the southeast, and the southwest of Aegean Sea. Future changes in extreme speeds show a general increase in the Aegean Sea, while lower thresholds are expected in the Ionian Sea. Return levels for periods of 20, 50, 100, and 200 years are estimated.

  3. Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

    2016-04-01

    The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of

  4. Extreme sea levels under present and future climate: a pan-European database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paprotny Dominik

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Continental or global studies of coastal flood hazard in the context of climate change encounter several obstacles. The primary concern is the limited coverage of sea level data, especially the high-frequency sort needed to analyse sea level extremes. In this paper we present the calculations of return periods of storm surge heights and water levels for the European coast. The analysis utilized simulations using Delft3D hydrodynamic model driven by meteorological data with temporal and spatial resolution, created under EURO-CORDEX activities. The simulations were calibrated using short- and long-term sea levels from over 150 gauges. Annual maxima of water levels were extracted from five simulations: 1971–2000 historical run as well as 2021–50 and 2071–2100 simulations based on two emissions scenarios each. Spatially varying sea level rise projections were also included. Annual maxima were then fitted to probability distributions in order to obtain the return periods. The results were combined with more than 70,000 coastal sections, so that they would be complimentary with a river flood hazard dataset developed in parallel. The study showed a good match between simulated and observed storm surge heights. It also shows large differences in future trends of water levels in Europe.

  5. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Alek A.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Holland, Paul R.; Boisvert, Linette N.; Bliss, Angela C.; Kimura, Noriaki; Meier, Walter N.

    2018-02-01

    The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative "compactness" of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable

  6. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

    2018-04-01

    Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

  7. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  8. An extreme internal solitary wave event observed in the northern South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Chen, Zhaohui; Zhao, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Chun; Yang, Qingxuan; Tian, Jiwei

    2016-07-21

    With characteristics of large amplitude and strong current, internal solitary wave (ISW) is a major hazard to marine engineering and submarine navigation; it also has significant impacts on marine ecosystems and fishery activity. Among the world oceans, ISWs are particular active in the northern South China Sea (SCS). In this spirit, the SCS Internal Wave Experiment has been conducted since March 2010 using subsurface mooring array. Here, we report an extreme ISW captured on 4 December 2013 with a maximum amplitude of 240 m and a peak westward current velocity of 2.55 m/s. To the authors' best knowledge, this is the strongest ISW of the world oceans on record. Full-depth measurements also revealed notable impacts of the extreme ISW on deep-ocean currents and thermal structures. Concurrent mooring measurements near Batan Island showed that the powerful semidiurnal internal tide generation in the Luzon Strait was likely responsible for the occurrence of the extreme ISW event. Based on the HYCOM data-assimilation product, we speculate that the strong stratification around Batan Island related to the strengthening Kuroshio may have contributed to the formation of the extreme ISW.

  9. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  10. Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

  11. Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

    2013-04-01

    Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

  12. Spatiotemporal changes in extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Marta; Woodworth, Philip L.

    2017-09-01

    Extreme sea levels along the densely monitored coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have been investigated using high-frequency tide gauge measurements in the GESLA-2 data set (www.gesla.org). Our results, based on nontidal residuals and skew surges in records since 1960, confirm that mean sea level (MSL) is a major, but not a unique, driver of extremes. Regionally coherent linear trends and correlations with large-scale climate patterns are found in extreme events, even after the removal of MSL. A similar conclusion, that MSL is a major but not the only driver of extremes, comes from a small number of long records starting in the mid-19th century. The records show slight increases in the intensity of extreme episodes at centennial time scales, together with multidecadal variability unrelated to MSL. Objective statistical criteria have been used to investigate whether extreme sea level distributions are stationary or not, resulting in nonstationarity being favored in many records, with or without accounting for changes in MSL. Extremes have been found to favor a non-Gumbel behavior at many locations, with implications for the accuracy of return levels for coastal engineering.

  13. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  14. Biodiversity patterns of plankton assemblages at the extremes of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Pearman, John K.

    2016-01-07

    The diversity of microbial plankton has received limited attention in the main basin of the Red Sea. This study investigates changes in the community composition and structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes at the extremes of the Red Sea along cross-shelf gradients and between the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum. Using molecular methods to target both the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, it was observed that the dominant prokaryotic classes were Acidimicrobiia, Alphaproteobacteria and Cyanobacteria, regardless of the region and depth. The eukaryotes Syndiniophyceae and Dinophyceae between them dominated in the north, with Bacillariophyceae and Mamiellophyceae more prominent in the southern region. Significant differences were observed for prokaryotes and eukaryotes for region, depth and distance from shore. Similarly, it was noticed that communities became less similar with increasing distance from the shore. Canonical correspondence analysis at the class level showed that Mamiellophyceae and Bacillariophyceae correlated with increased nutrients and chlorophyll a found in the southern region, which is influenced by the input of Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water.

  15. Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

  16. Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

  17. Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias

  18. Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.

    2013-11-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and the Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish) during the last 16 yr. The highest number of cold fronts was observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was observed and the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total); moreover, an annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the

  19. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  20. Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

    2017-12-01

    In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

  1. Extreme sea-levels, coastal risks and climate changes: lost in translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Castro Carneiro, Juliane; Cintra, Márcio; Ribeiro, Andréa; Cardoso, Denis; Stellfeld, Carol

    2014-05-01

    Occurring commonly in Brazilian coastal (and continental) areas, floods are probably the most devastating natural hazards our local society faces nowadays. With the expected sea-level rise and tropical storms becoming stronger and more frequents, the scenarios of local impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges; causing loss of lives, environmental damages and socio-economic stress; need to be addressed and properly communicated. We present results related to the sea-level setups accordingly to IPCC's scenarios and the expected coastal floods in the Paraná State, Southern Brazil. The outcomes are displayed in scientific language accompanied by "translations" with the objective of showing the need of a different language approach to communicate with the players affected by coastal hazards. To create the "translation" of the "scientific" text we used the Up-Goer Five Text Editor, which allows writing texts using only the ten hundred most used English words. We allowed ourselves to use a maximum of five other words per box not present at this dictionary, not considering geographical names or units in the count, provided there were simple. That was necessary because words as sea, beach, sand, storm, etc., are not among the one thousand present at the Up-Goer, and they are simple enough anyhow. On the other hand, the not scientific public we targeted speaks Portuguese, not English, and we do not have an Up-Goer tool for that language. Anyhow, each Box was also produced in Portuguese, as much simple as possible, to disseminate our results to the local community. To illustrate the need of "translation", it is worthy to mention a real case of a troublesome misunderstanding caused by us, scientists, in our coastal society. Some years ago, one of our colleagues at the university, a much-respected scientist, informed through a press release that, on a given day, "we will experience the highest astronomical tide of the century". That statement (scientifically true and

  2. Spatial variation in extreme water levels in the Baltic Sea – North Sea transition from tide gauge records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    events.Knowledge about extremes is essential for climate adaptation, design, and planning purposes. In an ongoing research project we seek to develop more robust and objective statistics for Denmark. This includes a revisit to all tide gauge stations’ (TG) data and exploring methods for extreme value...

  3. Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2018-03-01

    Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

  4. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  5. Extreme Dead Sea drying event during the last interglacial from the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drill Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, S.; Stein, M.; Ben-Avraham, Z.; Agnon, A.; Ariztegui, D.; Brauer, A.; Haug, G.; Ito, E.; Kitagawa, H.; Torfstein, A.; Yasuda, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The ICDP funded Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) recovered the longest and most complete paleo-environmental record in the Middle East, drilling holes in a deep and a shallow site extending to ~450 meters. The Dead Sea expands during the glacials and contracts during interglacials, and the sediments are an archive of the evolving climatic conditions. During glacials the sediments comprise intervals of marl (aragonite, gypsum and detritus) and during interglacials they are salts and marls. We estimate that the deep site core spans ~200 kyr (to early MIS 7). A dramatic discovery is a ~40 cm interval of rounded pebbles at ~235 m below the lake floor, the only clean pebbly unit in the entire core. It appears to be a beach layer, near the deepest part of the Dead Sea, lying above ~35 meters of mainly salt. If it is a beach layer, it implies an almost complete dry-down of the paleo-Dead Sea. The pebble layer lies within the last interglacial interval. Our initial attempt to estimate the age of the possible dry down shows an intriguing correlation between the salt-mud stratigraphy of the Dead Sea core and the oxygen isotope record of Soreq Cave, whereby excursions to light oxygen in the speleothems correspond to periods of salt deposition. Through this comparison, we estimate that the dry down occurred during MIS 5e. The occurrence of ~35 meters of mainly salt along with the pebble layer demonstrates a severe dry interval during MIS 5. This observation has implications for the Middle East today, where the Dead Sea level is dropping as all the countries in the area use the runoff. GCM models indicate a more arid future in the region. The core shows that the runoff nearly stopped during a past warm period without human intervention.

  6. Managing Expectations: Results from Case Studies of US Water Utilities on Preparing for, Coping with, and Adapting to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller-Simms, N.; Metchis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Water utilities, reeling from increased impacts of successive extreme events such as floods, droughts, and derechos, are taking a more proactive role in preparing for future incursions. A recent study by Federal and water foundation investigators, reveals how six US water utilities and their regions prepared for, responded to, and coped with recent extreme weather and climate events and the lessons they are using to plan future adaptation and resilience activities. Two case studies will be highlighted. (1) Sonoma County, CA, has had alternating floods and severe droughts. In 2009, this area, home to competing water users, namely, agricultural crops, wineries, tourism, and fisheries faced a three-year drought, accompanied at the end by intense frosts. Competing uses of water threatened the grape harvest, endangered the fish industry and resulted in a series of regulations, and court cases. Five years later, new efforts by partners in the entire watershed have identified mutual opportunities for increased basin sustainability in the face of a changing climate. (2) Washington DC had a derecho in late June 2012, which curtailed water, communications, and power delivery during a record heat spell that impacted hundreds of thousands of residents and lasted over the height of the tourist-intensive July 4th holiday. Lessons from this event were applied three months later in anticipation of an approaching Superstorm Sandy. This study will help other communities in improving their resiliency in the face of future climate extremes. For example, this study revealed that (1) communities are planning with multiple types and occurrences of extreme events which are becoming more severe and frequent and are impacting communities that are expanding into more vulnerable areas and (2) decisions by one sector can not be made in a vacuum and require the scientific, sectoral and citizen communities to work towards sustainable solutions.

  7. Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol

  8. Extreme drying event in the Dead Sea basin during MIS5 from the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drill Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.; Ben-Avraham, Z.; Agnon, A.; Ariztegui, D.; Brauer, A.; Haug, G. H.; Ito, E.; Kitagawa, H.; Torfstein, A.; Yasuda, Y.; The Icdp-Dsddp Scientific Party

    2011-12-01

    The ICDP funded Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) recovered the longest and most complete paleo-environmental record in the Middle East, drilling holes of ~450 and ~350 meters in length in deep (~300 m below the lake level) and shallow sites (~3 mbll) respectively. The Dead Sea expands during the glacials and contracts during interglacials, and the sediments comprise a geological archive of the evolving environmental conditions (e.g. rains, floods, dust-storms, droughts). Dead Sea sediments include inorganic aragonite, allowing for dating by U-series (e.g. Haase-Schramm et al. GCA 2004). The deep site cores were opened and described in June 2011. The cores are composed mainly of alternating intervals of marl (aragonite, gypsum and detritus) during glacials, and salts and marls during interglacials. From this stratigraphy we estimate that the deep site core spans ~200 kyr (to the boundary of MIS 6 and 7). A dramatic discovery is a ~40 cm thick interval of partly rounded pebbles at ~235 m below the lake floor. This is the only clean pebbly unit in the entire core. It appears to be a beach layer, near the deepest part of the Dead Sea, lying above ~35 meters of mainly salt. If it is a beach layer, it implies an almost complete dry-down of the paleo-Dead Sea. The pebble layer lies within the last interglacial interval. Our initial attempt to more precisely estimate the age of the possible dry down shows an intriguing correlation between the salt-mud stratigraphy of the Dead Sea core and the oxygen isotope record of Soreq Cave, whereby excursions to light oxygen in the speleothems correspond to periods of salt deposition. Through this comparison, we estimate that the possible dry down occurred during MIS 5e. The occurrence of ~35 meters of mainly salt along with the pebble layer demonstrates a severe dry interval during MIS 5. This observation has implications for the Middle East today, where the Dead Sea level is dropping as all the countries in the area use the

  9. Arctic sea-ice ridges—Safe heavens for sea-ice fauna during periods of extreme ice melt?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gradinger, Rolf; Bluhm, Bodil; Iken, Katrin

    2010-01-01

    The abundances and distribution of metazoan within-ice meiofauna (13 stations) and under-ice fauna (12 stations) were investigated in level sea ice and sea-ice ridges in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Canada Basin in June/July 2005 using a combination of ice coring and SCUBA diving. Ice meiofauna abundance was estimated based on live counts in the bottom 30 cm of level sea ice based on triplicate ice core sampling at each location, and in individual ice chunks from ridges at four locations. Under-ice amphipods were counted in situ in replicate ( N=24-65 per station) 0.25 m 2 quadrats using SCUBA to a maximum water depth of 12 m. In level sea ice, the most abundant ice meiofauna groups were Turbellaria (46%), Nematoda (35%), and Harpacticoida (19%), with overall low abundances per station that ranged from 0.0 to 10.9 ind l -1 (median 0.8 ind l -1). In level ice, low ice algal pigment concentrations (Turbellaria, Nematoda and Harpacticoida also were observed in pressure ridges (0-200 ind l -1, median 40 ind l -1), although values were highly variable and only medians of Turbellaria were significantly higher in ridge ice than in level ice. Median abundances of under-ice amphipods at all ice types (level ice, various ice ridge structures) ranged from 8 to 114 ind m -2 per station and mainly consisted of Apherusa glacialis (87%), Onisimus spp. (7%) and Gammarus wilkitzkii (6%). Highest amphipod abundances were observed in pressure ridges at depths >3 m where abundances were up to 42-fold higher compared with level ice. We propose that the summer ice melt impacted meiofauna and under-ice amphipod abundance and distribution through (a) flushing, and (b) enhanced salinity stress at thinner level sea ice (less than 3 m thickness). We further suggest that pressure ridges, which extend into deeper, high-salinity water, become accumulation regions for ice meiofauna and under-ice amphipods in summer. Pressure ridges thus might be crucial for faunal survival during periods of

  10. Extreme Low Light Requirement for Algae Growth Underneath Sea Ice: A Case Study From Station Nord, NE Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancke, Kasper; Lund-Hansen, Lars C.; Lamare, Maxim L.; Højlund Pedersen, Stine; King, Martin D.; Andersen, Per; Sorrell, Brian K.

    2018-02-01

    Microalgae colonizing the underside of sea ice in spring are a key component of the Arctic foodweb as they drive early primary production and transport of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean interior. Onset of the spring bloom of ice algae is typically limited by the availability of light, and the current consensus is that a few tens-of-centimeters of snow is enough to prevent sufficient solar radiation to reach underneath the sea ice. We challenge this consensus, and investigated the onset and the light requirement of an ice algae spring bloom, and the importance of snow optical properties for light penetration. Colonization by ice algae began in May under >1 m of first-year sea ice with ˜1 m thick snow cover on top, in NE Greenland. The initial growth of ice algae began at extremely low irradiance (algae growth below the sea ice. This was supported by radiative-transfer modeling of light attenuation. Implications are an earlier productivity by ice algae in Arctic sea ice than recognized previously.

  11. Extreme subsurface warm events in the South China Sea during 1998/99 and 2006/07: observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Fuan; Zeng, Lili; Liu, Qin-Yan; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Dongxiao

    2018-01-01

    Conductivity-temperature-depth observations, objectively analyzed data, and model output are used to investigate the variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1948-2010. Two extreme subsurface warm events are identified during 1998/99 and 2006/07, with no corresponding extreme surface warming except in 1998. Mixed-layer heat budget analysis reveals that the lack of significant heat input from surface net heat flux or from current advection is responsible for the absence of extreme surface warming during 1999, and 2006/07. The surface net heat flux alone cannot explain the first phases of subsurface warming during 1998/99 and 2006/07. Warm advection from the southern SCS in 1998/99 and from the Kuroshio intrusion in 2006/07, induced by anomalous ocean currents, is likely the major contributor to warming of the subsurface water. During the second phase of warming, the surface net heat flux plays a damping role to cool the subsurface water, and the warm advection induced by anomalous SCS western boundary currents from the southern SCS leads to extremely warm subsurface water anomalies. The results show the importance of the Pacific western boundary currents, especially the Kuroshio, in maintaining extreme subsurface warm events in the SCS.

  12. Performance evaluation of TMPA version 7 estimates for precipitation and its extremes in Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dejuan; Zhang, Hua; Li, Ruize

    2017-11-01

    Precipitation and its extremes are of significance for drought and flood warning and monitoring. This study evaluates the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 V7 to detect rainfall events, especially extreme precipitation events, using gauge observations for the period 1998-2012 over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon area. The results show that 3B42 V7 performs better at monthly and annual scales than at a daily scale. Spatially or seasonally, the rainfall pattern is more effectively captured by 3B42 V7 for the wet region or season than for the dry region or season. 3B42 V7 displays a positive relative bias in most areas, and the largest is situated in high latitude region, while negative relative bias is found at coastal regions. 3B42 V7 tends to overestimate at low and middle rainfall intensity (RI) ranges (RI extreme precipitation amount (EPRETOT, above 95th percentile of daily rainfall) are slightly overestimated by 3B42 V7, while EPRETOT exhibits a lower correlation with observations than PRETOT does. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) are higher than 50 % relative to rain gauges for eight extreme precipitation indices except the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), demonstrating that extreme precipitation estimates of 3B42 V7 are generally unreliable. The improvement of 3B42 V7 in capturing extreme precipitation events is anticipated through extensive efforts for its wide range of climate and hydrological applications. Overall, this study provides an evaluation of the quality of TMPA 3B42 V7 in estimating precipitation and its extremes in a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon region.

  13. An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Van den Berg, N.J.F.; De Jong, M.S.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Den Heijer, C.; Vrijling, J.K.; Jonkman, S.N.; Roos, P.C.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H.; Lansen, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at

  14. Sulfate reduction and sulfide oxidation in extremely steep salinity gradients formed by freshwater springs emerging into the Dead Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häusler, Stefan; Weber, Miriam; Siebert, Christian; Holtappels, Moritz; Noriega-Ortega, Beatriz E; De Beer, Dirk; Ionescu, Danny

    2014-12-01

    Abundant microbial mats, recently discovered in underwater freshwater springs in the hypersaline Dead Sea, are mostly dominated by sulfur-oxidizing bacteria. We investigated the source of sulfide and the activity of these communities. Isotopic analysis of sulfide and sulfate in the spring water showed a fractionation of 39-50‰ indicative of active sulfate reduction. Sulfate reduction rates (SRR) in the spring sediment (salinity and O2 from the Dead Sea water are responsible for the abundant microbial biomass around the springs. The springs flow is highly variable and accordingly the local salinities. We speculate that the development of microbial mats dominated by either Sulfurimonas/Sulfurovum-like or Thiobacillus/Acidithiobacillus-like sulfide-oxidizing bacteria, results from different mean salinities in the microenvironment of the mats. SRR of up to 10 nmol cm(-3) day(-1) detected in the Dead Sea sediment are surprisingly higher than in the less saline springs. While this shows the presence of an extremely halophilic sulfate-reducing bacteria community in the Dead Sea sediments, it also suggests that extensive salinity fluctuations limit these communities in the springs due to increased energetic demands for osmoregulation. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. An intertidal sea star adjusts thermal inertia to avoid extreme body temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincebourde, Sylvain; Sanford, Eric; Helmuth, Brian

    2009-12-01

    The body temperature of ectotherms is influenced by the interaction of abiotic conditions, morphology, and behavior. Although organisms living in different thermal habitats may exhibit morphological plasticity or move from unfavorable locations, there are few examples of animals adjusting their thermal properties in response to short-term changes in local conditions. Here, we show that the intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus modulates its thermal inertia in response to prior thermal exposure. After exposure to high body temperature at low tide, sea stars increase the amount of colder-than-air fluid in their coelomic cavity when submerged during high tide, resulting in a lower body temperature during the subsequent low tide. Moreover, this buffering capacity is more effective when seawater is cold during the previous high tide. This ability to modify the volume of coelomic fluid provides sea stars with a novel thermoregulatory "backup" when faced with prolonged exposure to elevated aerial temperatures.

  16. A preliminary look at the impact of warming Mediterranean Sea temperatures on some aspects of extreme thunderstorm events in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallus, William; Parodi, Antonio; Miglietta, Marcello; Maugeri, Maurizio

    2017-04-01

    As the global climate has warmed in recent decades, interest has grown in the impacts on extreme events associated with thunderstorms such as tornadoes and intense rainfall that can cause flash flooding. Because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to contain larger values of water vapor, it is generally accepted that short-term rainfall may become more intense in a future warmer climate. Regarding tornadoes, it is more difficult to say what might happen since although increased temperatures and humidity in the lowest part of the troposphere should increase thermodynamic instability, allowing for stronger thunderstorm updrafts, vertical wind shear necessary for storm-scale rotation may decrease as the pole to equator temperature gradient weakens. The Mediterranean Sea is an important source for moisture that fuels thunderstorms in Italy, and it has been warming faster than most water bodies in recent decades. The present study uses three methods to gain preliminary insight into the role that the warming Mediterranean may have on tornadoes and thunderstorms with intense rainfall in Italy. First, a historical archive of Italian tornadoes has been updated for the 1990s, and it will be used along with other data from the European Severe Weather Database to discuss possible trends in tornado occurrence. Second, convection-allowing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been performed for three extreme events to examine sensitivity to both the sea surface temperatures and other model parameters. These events include a flash flood-producing storm event near Milan, a non-tornadic severe hail event in far northeastern Italy, and the Mira EF-4 tornado of July 2015. Sensitivities in rainfall amount, radar reflectivity and storm structure, and storm rotation will be discussed. Finally, changes in the frequency of intense mesoscale convective system events in and near the Ligurian Sea, inferred from the presence of strong convergence lines in EXPRESS

  17. The Response of the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean) to the Extreme 2016-2017 Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velaoras, Dimitris; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Kontoyiannis, Harilaos; Papageorgiou, Dimitra K.; Pavlidou, Alexandra

    2017-09-01

    The exceptionally cold December 2016 over the Aegean Sea—one of the most important dense water formation areas of the eastern Mediterranean Sea—resulted in winter heat loss comparable to the peak Eastern Mediterranean Transient winters (1992-1993). Hydrological data sampled in March/April 2017 showed that newly produced dense waters ventilated the North Aegean deep basins up to density horizons of σθ 29.35 kg/m3. The water column ventilation was unable to reach the bottom as the present upper thermohaline circulation of the eastern Mediterranean does not favor the salinity preconditioning of the Aegean Sea. In the southwest Aegean, the Myrtoan basin was ventilated by dense waters traceable farther south to the West Cretan Straits. Export of these masses from the Aegean Sea can potentially have a broader impact on the thermohaline circulation of the eastern Mediterranean.

  18. Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-14

    estimating an allowance for uncertain sea level rise. Clim. Change , 113, 239–252. IPCC , 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis...J.G., 2009b. The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Sea Levels Along Victoria’s Coast: A Project Undertaken for the Department of Sustainability...Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 109-230. Smith, J. M., M. A

  19. Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Karl Hoeke

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR, particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

  20. Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo, Deborah; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe

    2017-06-19

    Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log( λ s ) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log( λ s ) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log( λ s ). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log( λ s ) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log( λ s ), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Effects of extreme seasonality on community structure and functional group dynamics of coral reef algae in the southern Red Sea (Eritrea)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ateweberhan, M.; Bruggemann, J. H.; Breeman, A. M.

    Spatial and temporal variation in the biomass of four functional groups of coral reef algae (canopy algae, foliose algae, turf algae and crustose corallines) was investigated in the southern Red Sea. This region is characterised by extremely high summer temperatures (ca. 35 degrees C). Strong

  2. The legacy of extreme sea levels for the assessment of future coastal flood risk – A review of methods applied in Denmark, Germany and Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsen, Jan Even; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Dangendore, Sönke

    not evenly distributed. National methodologies for assessing extreme events generally differ in some way. For example, the statistical methods applied in extreme value analysis, projections of future changes in extremes, and/or approaches for dealing with coastal flood risks. This includes local to regional...... climate change projections for future sea extremes, and, for instance, variations due to location, morphodynamic change, and glacio-isostatic adjustment. Next, the transformation of this knowledge to concrete impact and design measures and its use in national and local governance adaptation schemes...... in the three countries is discussed. Here, national approaches to deal with risk, risk acceptance and uncertainty vary, among other factors, as a result of the different assessments of extreme events. In hazard and vulnerability assessments, for instance, where results are highly dependent on the quality...

  3. Do we expect light flavor sea-quark asymmetry also for the spin-dependent distribution functions of the nucleon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakamatsu, M.; Watabe, T.

    2000-07-01

    The theoretical predictions of the chiral quark soliton model for the unpolarized and longitudinally polarized structure functions of the nucleon are compared with recent high energy data. The theory is shown to explain all the qualitative features of the experiments, including the NMC data for Fp2(x)-Fn2(x), Fn2(x)/Fp2(x), the Hermes and NuSea data for d¯(x)-ū(x), and the EMC and SMC data for gp1(x), gn1(x) and gd1(x). It also predicts at Q2=4 GeV that Δd¯(x)-Δū(x)=Cxα[d¯(x)-ū(x)] with a sizable negative coefficient C~=-2.0 (and α~=0.12), thereby strongly indicating light flavor sea-quark asymmetry also for the longitudinally polarized distribution functions.

  4. Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing on observed mean and extreme sea level pressure trends over the Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkhordarian, Armineh

    2012-01-01

    We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

  5. Carbon isotope ratios of organic matter in Bering Sea settling particles. Extremely high remineralization of organic carbon derived from diatoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, Saki; Akagi, Tasuku; Naraoka, Hiroshi; Kitajima, Fumio; Takahashi, Kozo

    2016-01-01

    The carbon isotope ratios of organic carbon in settling particles collected in the highly-diatom-productive Bering Sea were determined. Wet decomposition was employed to oxidize relatively fresh organic matter. The amount of unoxidised organic carbon in the residue following wet decomposition was negligible. The δ 13 C of organic carbon in the settling particles showed a clear relationship against SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio of settling particles: approximately -26‰ and -19‰ at lower and higher SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratios, respectively. The δ 13 C values were largely interpreted in terms of mixing of two major plankton sources. Both δ 13 C and compositional data can be explained consistently only by assuming that more than 98% of diatomaceous organic matter decays and that organic matter derived from carbonate-shelled plankton may remain much less remineralized. A greater amount of diatom-derived organic matter is discovered to be trapped with the increase of SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio of the settling particles. The ratio of organic carbon to inorganic carbon, known as the rain ratio, therefore, tends to increase proportionally with the SiO 2 /CaCO 3 ratio under an extremely diatom-productive condition. (author)

  6. Probabilistic exposure assessment to food chemicals based on extreme value theory. Application to heavy metals from fish and sea products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tressou, J; Crépet, A; Bertail, P; Feinberg, M H; Leblanc, J Ch

    2004-08-01

    This paper presents new statistical methods in the field of exposure assessment. We focus on the estimation of the probability for the exposure to exceed a fixed safe level such as the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI), when both consumption data and contamination data are independently available. Various calculations of exposure are proposed and compared. For many contaminants, PTWI belongs to the exposure tail distribution, which suggests the use of extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the risk. Our approach consists in modelling the exposure tail by a Pareto type distribution characterized by a Pareto index which may be seen as a measure of the risk of exceeding the PTWI. Using propositions by EVT specialists, we correct the bias of the usual Hill estimator to accurately estimate this risk index. We compare the results with an empirical plug-in method and show that the Pareto adjustment is relevant and efficient when exposure is low compared to the PTWI while the plug-in method should be used when exposure is higher. To illustrate our approach, we present some exposure assessment for heavy metals (lead, cadmium, mercury) via sea product consumption.

  7. Could the acid-base status of Antarctic sea urchins indicate a better-than-expected resilience to near-future ocean acidification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, Marie; De Ridder, Chantal; David, Bruno; Dehairs, Frank; Dubois, Philippe

    2015-02-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration alters the chemistry of the oceans towards more acidic conditions. Polar oceans are particularly affected due to their low temperature, low carbonate content and mixing patterns, for instance upwellings. Calcifying organisms are expected to be highly impacted by the decrease in the oceans' pH and carbonate ions concentration. In particular, sea urchins, members of the phylum Echinodermata, are hypothesized to be at risk due to their high-magnesium calcite skeleton. However, tolerance to ocean acidification in metazoans is first linked to acid-base regulation capacities of the extracellular fluids. No information on this is available to date for Antarctic echinoderms and inference from temperate and tropical studies needs support. In this study, we investigated the acid-base status of 9 species of sea urchins (3 cidaroids, 2 regular euechinoids and 4 irregular echinoids). It appears that Antarctic regular euechinoids seem equipped with similar acid-base regulation systems as tropical and temperate regular euechinoids but could rely on more passive ion transfer systems, minimizing energy requirements. Cidaroids have an acid-base status similar to that of tropical cidaroids. Therefore Antarctic cidaroids will most probably not be affected by decreasing seawater pH, the pH drop linked to ocean acidification being negligible in comparison of the naturally low pH of the coelomic fluid. Irregular echinoids might not suffer from reduced seawater pH if acidosis of the coelomic fluid pH does not occur but more data on their acid-base regulation are needed. Combining these results with the resilience of Antarctic sea urchin larvae strongly suggests that these organisms might not be the expected victims of ocean acidification. However, data on the impact of other global stressors such as temperature and of the combination of the different stressors needs to be acquired to assess the sensitivity of these organisms to global

  8. Precipitation extremes in the dry and wet regions of China and their connections with the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2017-06-01

    We investigated the connections between the precipitation extremes during 1953-2002 in the dry and wet regions of China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP; including EI Niño-Southern Oscillation 1.2, 3, and 3.4 regions) based on two sets of observations, 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and nine regional climate model (RCM) results, which were downscaled using the RCM RegCM4. The grid cells with the lowest 30% nonmissing precipitation extremes were identified as the dry region, and those with the highest 30% comprised the wet region. Compared with observed extreme indices, the CMIP5 ensemble could simulate the temporal averages and spatial patterns of extreme indices in the dry and wet regions, where the temporal averages of the indices based on RCMs matched better with those of the observed indices. In the dry region of China, the extreme precipitation indices had positive regression coefficients versus the SST of the ETP for all data sets, but the linear relationships of the extreme indices with the SST were more complex in the wet region. Finally, we investigated the variations of the correlations of precipitation extremes with the SST of ETP in multiple RCM results and CMIP5 models, respectively.

  9. Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

    2015-10-01

    The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

  10. Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2018-03-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28–82 cm), 56 cm (28–96 cm), and 58 cm (37–93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7–8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with

  11. Characteristics of cyclones causing extreme sea levels in the northern Baltic Sea** The study was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT20-11 and Grant ETF9134 and by the EU Regional Development Foundation, Environmental Conservation and Environmental Technology R&D Programme Project No. 3.2.0801.12-0044.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piia Post

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic parameters of extra-tropical cyclones in the northern Baltic are examined in relation to extreme sea level events at Estonian coastal stations between 1948 and 2010. The hypothesis that extreme sea level events might be caused not by one intense extra-tropical cyclone, as suggested by earlier researchers, but by the temporal clustering of cyclones in a certain trajectory corridor, is tested. More detailed analysis of atmospheric conditions at the time of the two most extreme cases support this concept: the sequence of 5 cyclones building up the extreme sea level within about 10 days was very similar in structure and periodicity.

  12. A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

  13. Lessons from Suiyo Seamount studies, for understanding extreme (ancient?) microbial ecosystems in the deep-sea hydrothermal fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, A.; Higashi, Y.; Sunamura, M.; Urabe, T.

    2004-12-01

    Deep-sea hydrothermal ecosystems are driven with various geo-thermally modified, mainly reduced, compounds delivered from extremely hot subsurface environments. To date, several unique microbes including thermophilic archaeons have been isolated from/around vent chimneys. However, there is little information about microbes in over-vent and sub-vent fields. Here, we report several new findings on microbial diversity and ecology of the Suiyo Seamount that locates on the Izu-Bonin Arc in the northwest Pacific Ocean, as a result of the Japanese Archaean Park project, with special concern to the sub-vent biosphere. At first, we succeeded to reveal a very unique microbial ecosystem in hydrothermal plume reserved within the outer rim of the seamount crater, that is, it consisted of almost all metabolically active microbes belonged to only two Bacteria phylotypes, probably of sulfur oxidizers. In the center of the caldera seafloor (ca. 1,388-m deep) consisted mainly of whitish sands and pumices, we found many small chimneys (ca. 5-10 cm) and bivalve colonies distributed looking like gray to black patches. These geo/ecological features of the seafloor were supposed to be from a complex mixing of hydrothermal venting and strong water current near the seafloor. Through quantitative FISH analysis for various environmental samples, one of the two representative groups in the plume was assessed to be from some of the bivalve colonies. Using the Benthic Multi-coring System (BMS), total 10 points were drilled and 6 boreholes were maintained with stainless or titanium casing pipes. In the following submersible surveys, newly developed catheter- and column-type in situ growth chambers were deployed in and on the boreholes, respectively, for collecting indigenous sub-vent microbes. Finally, we succeeded to detect several new phylotypes of microbes in these chamber samples, e.g., within epsilon-Proteobacteria, a photosynthetic group of alpha-Proteobacteria, and hyperthermophile

  14. Assessment of historical and future extreme flood characteristics for Novorossiysk city on the Black Sea coast of the North Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenova, Olga; Kruchin, Maksim; Volkova, Nina; Lebedeva, Luidmila

    2014-05-01

    Several catastrophic floods have occurred in the North Caucasus region in recent years. One such, the dramatic flood in Krymsk in July, 2012 led to more than 160 deaths. Except for late warning, the main reason for damage and loss of lives is the unpreparedness of urban drainage systems and hydraulic structures to the increased intensity and volume of precipitation which has been observed in the region in recent years. This study aimed to assess flood characteristics and estimate possible inundation areas for Novorossiysk city, located at the Black Sea coast of the North Caucasus. The Cemes River which flows through the city originates on the north-east slopes of the Gudzev Mountain (425 m) and has a basin area about 83 km2. The study is conducted for the purpose of improving the city drainage system. The task of flood characteristic estimation is complicated by the lack of both hydrological and meteorological data. The Cemes River is ungauged and there are no operative precipitation gauges on the mountain slopes where most of the precipitation occurs. There is only one station located in the city on the coast. The assessment was conducted using several approaches. One is that the recommendations which are used in hydrological engineering practice were applied. They include the use of basin-analogous data and the application of regional formulas and maps to estimate maximum discharge of required exceedance probability (1% in this study). In this case where the shortage of observation data is combined with considerable changes in rainfall and land-use, the methods estimating runoff characteristics using the statistical approach of observation data extrapolation may yield incorrect results. As a result, the deterministic-stochastic (DS) modeling approach used herein is suggested as an alternative. Here the deterministic model distinguishes between the processes within catchments, while the stochastic model provides stochastic meteorological input and a framework to

  15. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  16. Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

    2015-04-01

    The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of

  17. Response of Land-Sea Interface in Xiamen Bay to Extreme Weather Events Observed with the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a Multifunctional Sensors System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, J.; Hong, H.; Pan, W.; Zhang, C.

    2016-12-01

    Recent climate observations suggest that global climate change may result in an increase of extreme weather events (such as tropical cyclones, intense precipitation i.e. heavy rains) in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions. Subtropical coastal regions are often densely populated areas experiencing rapid development and widespread changes to the aquatic environment. The biogeochemical and ecological responses of coastal systems to extreme weather events are of increasing concern. Enhanced river nutrients input following rain storms has been linked to the ecological responses at land-sea interface. These land-sea interactions can be studied using multifunctional sensors systems. In our study, the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a monitoring system with multiple sensors, was deployed in Xiamen Bay for near real time measurements of different parameters. The Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array is a deep water net cage which functions in long-term synchronous observation of dynamic ecological characteristics with the support of an aerograph, water-watch, LOBO (Land/Ocean Biogeochemical Observatory), ADCP, CTD chain system, YSI vertical profiler, flow cytometer, sea surface camera, and "communication box". The study showed that rain storms during multiple typhoons resulted in greater fluctuations of salinity, N concentration, and other water environmental conditions, which might have been connected with algal blooms (so-called red tide) in Xiamen Bay.

  18. Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

    2017-04-01

    The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

  19. Extremely high aerosol loading over Arabian Sea during June 2008: The specific role of the atmospheric dynamics and Sistan dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Goto, D.; Nastos, P. T.

    2014-09-01

    This study focuses on analyzing the extreme aerosol loading and the mechanisms, source areas and meteorological conditions that favored the abnormal dust exposure towards Arabian Sea during June 2008. The analysis reveals that the spatial-averaged aerosol optical depth (AOD) over Arabian Sea in June 2008 is 0.5 (78.2%) higher than the 2000-2013 mean June value and is mostly attributed to the enhanced dust activity and several (18) dust storms originated from the Sistan region (Iran-Afghanistan borders). Landsat images show that the marshy lakes in Sistan basin got dried during the second half of June 2008 and the alluvial silt and saline material got easily eroded by the intense Levar winds, which were stronger (>15-20 m s-1) than the climatological mean for the month of June. These conditions led to enhanced dust exposure from Sistan that strongly affected the northern and central parts of the Arabian Sea, as forward air-mass trajectories show. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis reveals an abnormal intensification and spatial expansion of the Indian low pressure system towards northern Arabian Sea in June 2008. This suggests strengthening of the convection over the arid southwest Asia and exposure of significant amount of dust, which can reach further south over Arabian Sea favored by the enhanced cyclonic circulation. MODIS imagery highlighted several dust storms originated from Sistan and affecting Arabian Sea during June 2008, while the SPRINTARS model simulations of increased AOD and dust concentration over Sistan and downwind areas are in agreement with ground-based and satellite observations.

  20. Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

    2018-02-01

    The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

  1. Detecting Changes in Precipitation Extremes in China and Their Connections With the Sea Surface Temperature of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

    2016-12-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. At the end, We investigated the connections between the present precipitation extremes in the dry and wet regions of China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP; including EI Nio-Southern Oscillation 1.2, 3, and 3.4 regions) based on two sets of observations, 18 CMIP5 models, and nine regional climate models (RCMs), where the results were downscaled by RCM RegCM4.

  2. In Situ Raman Spectral Characteristics of Carbon Dioxide in a Deep-Sea Simulator of Extreme Environments Reaching 300 ℃ and 30 MPa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfu; Du, Zengfeng; Zhang, Xin; Xi, Shichuan; Wang, Bing; Luan, Zhendong; Lian, Chao; Yan, Jun

    2018-01-01

    Deep-sea carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a significant role in the global carbon cycle and directly affects the living environment of marine organisms. In situ Raman detection technology is an effective approach to study the behavior of deep-sea CO 2 . However, the Raman spectral characteristics of CO 2 can be affected by the environment, thus restricting the phase identification and quantitative analysis of CO 2 . In order to study the Raman spectral characteristics of CO 2 in extreme environments (up to 300 ℃ and 30 MPa), which cover most regions of hydrothermal vents and cold seeps around the world, a deep-sea extreme environment simulator was developed. The Raman spectra of CO 2 in different phases were obtained with Raman insertion probe (RiP) system, which was also used in in situ Raman detection in the deep sea carried by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) "Faxian". The Raman frequency shifts and bandwidths of gaseous, liquid, solid, and supercritical CO 2 and the CO 2 -H 2 O system were determined with the simulator. In our experiments (0-300 ℃ and 0-30 MPa), the peak positions of the symmetric stretching modes of gaseous CO 2, liquid CO 2 , and supercritical CO 2 shift approximately 0.6 cm -1 (1387.8-1388.4 cm -1 ), 0.7 cm -1 (1385.5-1386.2 cm -1 ), and 2.5 cm -1 (1385.7-1388.2 cm -1 ), and those of the bending modes shift about 1.0 cm -1 (1284.7-1285.7 cm -1 ), 1.9 cm -1 (1280.1-1282.0 cm -1 ), and 4.4 cm -1 (1281.0-1285.4 cm -1 ), respectively. The Raman spectral characteristics of the CO 2 -H 2 O system were also studied under the same conditions. The peak positions of dissolved CO 2 varied approximately 4.5 cm -1 (1282.5-1287.0 cm -1 ) and 2.4 cm -1 (1274.4-1276.8 cm -1 ) for each peak. In comparison with our experiment results, the phases of CO 2 in extreme conditions (0-3000 m and 0-300 ℃) can be identified with the Raman spectra collected in situ. This qualitative research on CO 2 can also support the

  3. Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term and Extreme Value Estimation of Wind and Sea Conditions for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    . The stochastic model for extreme value estimation covers annual extreme value distributions and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of available data. Furthermore, updating based on new available data is explained based on a Bayesian approach. The statistical uncertainties are estimated based......Wave energy power plants are expected to become one of the major future contribution to the sustainable electricity production. Optimal design of wave energy power plants is associated with modeling of physical, statistical, measurement and model uncertainties. This paper presents stochastic models...... for the significant wave height, the mean zero-crossing wave period and the wind speed for long-term and extreme estimations. The long-term estimation focuses on annual statistical distributions, the inter-annual variation of distribution parameters and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of data...

  4. Extensive gene acquisition in the extremely psychrophilic bacterial species Psychroflexus torquis and the link to sea-ice ecosystem specialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shi; Powell, Shane M; Wilson, Richard; Bowman, John P

    2014-01-01

    Sea ice is a highly dynamic and productive environment that includes a diverse array of psychrophilic prokaryotic and eukaryotic taxa distinct from the underlying water column. Because sea ice has only been extensive on Earth since the mid-Eocene, it has been hypothesized that bacteria highly adapted to inhabit sea ice have traits that have been acquired through horizontal gene transfer (HGT). Here we compared the genomes of the psychrophilic bacterium Psychroflexus torquis ATCC 700755(T), associated with both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, and its closely related nonpsychrophilic sister species, P. gondwanensis ACAM 44(T). Results show that HGT has occurred much more extensively in P. torquis in comparison to P. gondwanensis. Genetic features that can be linked to the psychrophilic and sea ice-specific lifestyle of P. torquis include genes for exopolysaccharide (EPS) and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) biosynthesis, numerous specific modes of nutrient acquisition, and proteins putatively associated with ice-binding, light-sensing (bacteriophytochromes), and programmed cell death (metacaspases). Proteomic analysis showed that several genes associated with these traits are highly translated, especially those involved with EPS and PUFA production. Because most of the genes relating to the ability of P. torquis to dwell in sea-ice ecosystems occur on genomic islands that are absent in closely related P. gondwanensis, its adaptation to the sea-ice environment appears driven mainly by HGT. The genomic islands are rich in pseudogenes, insertional elements, and addiction modules, suggesting that gene acquisition is being followed by a process of genome reduction potentially indicative of evolving ecosystem specialism.

  5. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life...

  6. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  7. The Impact of an Extreme Storm Event on the Barrier Beach of the Lefkada Lagoon, NE Ionian Sea (Greece)

    OpenAIRE

    GHIONIS, G.; POULOS, S. E.; VERYKIOU, E.; KARDITSA, A.; ALEXANDRAKIS, G.; ANDRIS, P.

    2015-01-01

    The present investigation examines the characteristics of a high energy storm event, that took place on November 9-11, 2007 in the NE Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean), and its impact upon the barrier beach that separates the Lefkada lagoon from the open Ionian Sea. The storm event was caused by NW winds with speeds exceeding 20 m/s (40 knots), which have an annual frequency of occurrence less than 0.015%. This high energy event produced waves with >5 m significant offshore height and 9.5 s ...

  8. Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...

  9. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    generally rising as a result of regional water body thermal expansion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) AR4 ( IPCC 2007) estimate of...assessing potential measures/projects that would reduce flood risk and increase resiliency. Potential future climate change must be included in the risk...level time series are detrended prior to the computation of storm surge because the observed water levels exhibit the effects of sea level change and

  10. Shallow gene pools in the high intertidal: extreme loss of genetic diversity in viviparous sea stars (Parvulastra)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keever, Carson C.; Puritz, Jonathan B.; Addison, Jason A.; Byrne, Maria; Grosberg, Richard K.; Toonen, Robert J.; Hart, Michael W.

    2013-01-01

    We document an extreme example of reproductive trait evolution that affects population genetic structure in sister species of Parvulastra cushion stars from Australia. Self-fertilization by hermaphroditic adults and brood protection of benthic larvae causes strong inbreeding and range-wide genetic poverty. Most samples were fixed for a single allele at nearly all nuclear loci; heterozygotes were extremely rare (0.18%); mitochondrial DNA sequences were more variable, but few populations shared haplotypes in common. Isolation-with-migration models suggest that these patterns are caused by population bottlenecks (relative to ancestral population size) and low gene flow. Loss of genetic diversity and low potential for dispersal between high-intertidal habitats may have dire consequences for extinction risk and potential for future adaptive evolution in response to climate and other selective agents. PMID:23925835

  11. Population structure and growth rates at biogeographic extremes: a case study of the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule (L.) in the Barents Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genelt-Yanovskiy, Evgeny; Poloskin, Alexey; Granovitch, Andrei; Nazarova, Sophia; Strelkov, Petr

    2010-01-01

    A descriptive study of population structure, growth rates and shell morphometry was conducted on nine intertidal populations of the infaunal bivalve Cerastoderma edule in the Murmansk coast of the Barents Sea. Year-to-year population dynamics was analyzed during 2002-2006 on a tidal flat Dalniy Plaj (eastern Murmansk coast). The region constitutes the northern extremes of C. edule range where populations occupied the middle to low intertidal zone and were characterized by low densities. The distribution of age groups and unstable age structure across years in the cockle populations suggest irregular recruitment. Growth rates and shell morphometry showed little variation across the populations studied, and there were no gradient changes from the west to the east parts of Murmansk coast. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate links and recent extremes in antarctic sea ice, high-latitude cyclones, Southern Annular Mode and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Rashid, Harun A.; Simmonds, Ian

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we study the climate link between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the southern sea-ice extent (SIE), and discuss the possible role of stationary waves and synoptic eddies in establishing this link. In doing so, we have used a combination of techniques involving spatial correlations of SIE, eddy streamfunction and wind anomalies, and statistics of high-latitude cyclone strength. It is suggested that stationary waves may be amplified by eddy anomalies associated with high latitude cyclones, resulting in more sea ice when the SAM is in its positive phase for most, but not all, longitudes. A similar association is observed during ENSO (La Niña years). Although this synergy in the SAM/ENSO response may partially reflect preferential areas for wave amplification around Antarctica, the short extent of the climate records does not allow for a definite causality connection to be established with SIE. Stronger polar cyclones are observed over the areas where the stationary waves are amplified. These deeper cyclones will break up and export ice equatorward more efficiently, but the near-coastal regions are cold enough to allow for a rapid re-freeze of the resulting ice break-up. We speculate that if global warming continues this same effect could help reverse the current (positive) Antarctic SIE trends once the ice gets thinner, similarly to what has been observed in the Northern Hemisphere.

  13. Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier islands and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    westward sediment transport by alongshore currents, and Cat Island is being reshaped as it adjusts to post-formation changes in wave and current patterns associated with deposition of the St. Bernard lobe of the Mississippi delta. The principal causes of barrier island land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a deficit in the sediment budget. The only factor that has a historical trend that coincides with the progressive increase in rates of land loss is the progressive reduction in sand supply associated with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. Neither rates of relative sea level rise nor storm parameters have long-term historical rends that match the increased rates of land loss since the mid 1800s. The historical rates of relative sea level rise in the northern Gulf of Mexico have been relatively constant and storm frequencies and intensities occur in multidecal cycles. However, the most recent land loss accelerations likely related to the increased storm activity since 1995. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is clear that the barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate without a reversal in trend of at least one of the causal factors. The reduction in sand supply related to disruption of the alongshore sediment transport system is the only factor contributing to land loss that can be managed directly. This can be accomplished by placing dredged material so that the adjacent barrier island shores revive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.

  14. The Impact of an Extreme Storm Event on the Barrier Beach of the Lefkada Lagoon, NE Ionian Sea (Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. GHIONIS

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The present investigation examines the characteristics of a high energy storm event, that took place on November 9-11, 2007 in the NE Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean, and its impact upon the barrier beach that separates the Lefkada lagoon from the open Ionian Sea. The storm event was caused by NW winds with speeds exceeding 20 m/s (40 knots, which have an annual frequency of occurrence less than 0.015%. This high energy event produced waves with >5 m significant offshore height and 9.5 s period; these waves developed on 10th November during the rapid rise of barometric pressure (~1.4 hPa/hr, which followed the barometric pressure drop from 1020.5 hPa at 06:00 (UTC of 9th November to 1001.7 hPa at 06:00 h (UTC of 10th November. Secondary breaking at the shoreline produced wave heights >1.5 m, associated with a surge of >0.4 m and a run-up capability of >2.4 m. The waves managed to overtop the barrier beach (elevations ~2.5 m, lowering the seaward side of the barrier beach by 10-30 cm and causing a coastline retreat of 0.9 to 2.2 m; these morphological changes correspond volumetrically to a sediment loss of approximately 8 m3/m of coastline length from the sub-aerial part of the beach. During the last three decades a significant change in the frequency of occurrence and direction (from S-SW-W to N-NW-NE of severe storms with wind speeds exceeding 40 knots has been recorded, affecting the sediment transport pattern and contributing to the erosion of the north beaches of Lefkada.

  15. Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Alexander

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs in northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs adjacent to North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocean. Results were obtained from 26 models in the Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive and 30 simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble Community Project (CESM-LENS. All of the simulations used the observed greenhouse gas concentrations for 1976–2005 and the RCP8.5 “business as usual” scenario for greenhouse gases through the remainder of the 21st century. In general, differences between models are substantially larger than among the simulations in the CESM-LENS, indicating that the SST changes are more strongly affected by model formulation than internal climate variability. The annual SST trends over 1976–2099 in the 18 LMEs examined here are all positive ranging from 0.05 to 0.5°C decade–1. SST changes by the end of the 21st century are primarily due to a positive shift in the mean with only modest changes in the variability in most LMEs, resulting in a substantial increase in warm extremes and decrease in cold extremes. The shift in the mean is so large that in many regions SSTs during 2070–2099 will 'always' be warmer than the 'warmest' year during 1976–2005. The SST trends are generally stronger in summer than in winter, as greenhouse gas heating is integrated over a much shallower climatological mixed layer depth in summer than in winter, which amplifies the seasonal cycle of SST over the 21st century. In the Arctic, the mean SST and its variability increases substantially during summer, when it is ice free, but not during winter when a thin layer of ice reforms and SSTs remain near the freezing point.

  16. Sea surface temperature variability in Panamá and Galápagos: Extreme temperatures causing coral bleaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podestá, Guillermo P.; Glynn, Peter W.

    1997-07-01

    We examined associations between warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and coral bleaching in the Galápagos Islands and the Gulf of Panamá, in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Interannual SST variability is dominated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon at Galápagos, whereas only strong events have an SST signature in Panamá. We explored various SST-related metrics potentially associated with bleaching occurrence: maximum absolute SST, SST anomaly, and the combined effect of intensity and duration of both SST anomalies (described via a "degree days" index) and high SST events. In Galápagos, three Niño years (1983, 1987, and 1992) coincided with bleaching. These were the top three years in both maximum annual SSTs and degree days values. In Panamá, bleaching in 1983 coincided with high maximum SSTs and high degree days. In contrast, no bleaching was detected in 1972 despite high values of both quantities. We found all temperature-related metrics to be highly correlated, and it was impossible to isolate their effects.

  17. Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

    2018-02-01

    This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

  18. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the impact of educational tracking on expectation formation among high school students in the U.S., whereas Chapter III analyzes the role of the grade point average in the expectation formation process among socially disadvantaged high school students in the U.S. The empirical analyses in both chapters...

  19. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary...

  20. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    In this dissertation I examine the relationship between subjective beliefs about the outcomes of educational choices and the generation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) in post-industrial society. Taking my departure in the rational action turn in the sociology of educational...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  1. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  2. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  3. Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' on the local thermal regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Isaev, Alexey V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). P.P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology; Eremina, Tatjana R. [Russian State Hydrometeorological Univ., St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Sein, Dmitry V. [Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany). Alfred Wegener Inst.

    2017-07-01

    The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

  4. Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, E.V.; Ben-David, M.

    2011-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) prefer to live on Arctic sea ice but may swim between ice floes or between sea ice and land. Although anecdotal observations suggest that polar bears are capable of swimming long distances, no data have been available to describe in detail long distance swimming events or the physiological and reproductive consequences of such behavior. Between an initial capture in late August and a recapture in late October 2008, a radio-collared adult female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea made a continuous swim of 687 km over 9 days and then intermittently swam and walked on the sea ice surface an additional 1,800 km. Measures of movement rate, hourly activity, and subcutaneous and external temperature revealed distinct profiles of swimming and walking. Between captures, this polar bear lost 22% of her body mass and her yearling cub. The extraordinary long distance swimming ability of polar bears, which we confirm here, may help them cope with reduced Arctic sea ice. Our observation, however, indicates that long distance swimming in Arctic waters, and travel over deep water pack ice, may result in high energetic costs and compromise reproductive fitness. ?? 2011 US Government.

  5. Differences In Skull Size Of Harbour Porpoises, Phocoena phocoena (Cetacea, In The Sea Of Azov And The Black Sea: Evidence For Different Morphotypes And Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldin P. E.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available There are two porpoise stocks in the northern Black Sea: the north-western (Odessa Gulf and northeastern (Crimean and Caucasian waters; in addition, another stock is in the Sea of Azov. The Azov porpoises are distinct in their body size and biology. This research was conducted on the skulls of stranded sexually mature porpoises from the north-eastern Black Sea, north-western Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. In the north-eastern Black Sea samples, both present-day and old-time, the sexual dimorphism of the skull size was not significant, whereas in the Sea of Azov the females were significantly larger than males. The Azov skulls were strongly different from those from the Black Sea: they were larger, proportionally wider and had the wider rostra; also, there was no significant chronological variation within the Black Sea. The Azov and Black Sea samples were classified with the 100 % success with four variables. The northwestern Black Sea skulls were somewhat intermediate in their characteristics between the Azov and northeastern Black Sea samples, but they were classify ed together with other Black Sea specimens. The difference between the Azov and Black Sea skulls was greater than between many North Atlantic populations, despite the extreme geographical proximity of the two stocks. The low variation within the Black Sea supports the earlier conclusions on the lack of genetic variation: all the Black Sea stocks are expected to be genetically similar sub-populations, whereas the Azov and Marmara stocks possibly represent the genetically distant populations. The porpoises from the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov equally show the traits which characterize the subspecies Phocoena phocoena relicta, but the Black Sea porpoises appear to be more paedomorphic in terms of ontogenetic trajectories.

  6. Using mobile, internet connected deep sea crawlers for spatial and temporal analysis of cold seep ecosystems and the collection of real-time classroom data for extreme environment education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Autun; Kwasnitschka, Tom; Duda, Alexander; Schwendner, Jakob; Bamberg, Marlene; Sohl, Frank; Doya, Carol; Aguzzi, Jacopo; Best, Mairi; Llovet, Neus Campanya I.; Scherwath, Martin; Thomsen, Laurenz

    2015-04-01

    Cabled internet and power connectivity with the deep sea allow instruments to operate in the deep sea at higher temporal resolutions than was possible historically, with the reliance on battery life and data storage capacities. In addition to the increase in sensor temporal frequency, cabled infrastructures now allow remote access to and control of mobile platforms on the seafloor. Jacobs University Bremen, in combination with collaborators from the Robotic Exploration of Extreme Environments (ROBEX) project, CSIC Barcelona and Ocean Networks Canada have been operating tracked deep sea crawler vehicles at ~890 m depth at the dynamic Barkley Canyon methane seep site, Pacific Canada during the last ~4 years. The vehicle has been able to explore an area of ~50 m radius, allowing repeated visits to numerous microhabitats. Mounting a range of sensors, including temperature, pressure, conductivity, fluorescence, turbidity, flow and methane concentration sensors, as well as various camera systems a large dataset has been compiled. Several methane pockmarks are present in the survey area, and geological, biological and oceanographic changes have been monitored over a range of timescales. Several publications have been produced, and in this presentation we introduce further data currently under analysis. Cabled internet connectivity further allows mobile platforms to be used directly in education. As part of the ROBEX project, researchers and students from both terrestrial and planetary sciences are using the crawler in an ongoing study project. Students are introduced to statistical methods from both fields during the course and in later stages they can plan their own research using the in-situ crawler, and follow the progress of their investigations live, then analyse the collected data using the techniques introduced during the course. Cabled infrastructures offer a unique facility for spatial investigation of extreme ecosystems over time, and for the 'hands on

  7. Occurrence of 1 ka-old corals on an uplifted reef terrace in west Luzon, Philippines: Implications for a prehistoric extreme wave event in the South China Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Noelynna T.; Maxwell, Kathrine V.; Tsutsumi, Hiroyuki; Chou, Yu-Chen; Duan, Fucai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Satake, Kenji

    2017-12-01

    Recent 230Th dating of fossil corals in west Luzon has provided new insights on the emergence of late Quaternary marine terraces that fringe west Luzon Island facing the Manila Trench. Apart from regional sea level changes, accumulated uplift from aseismic and seismic processes may have influenced the emergence of sea level indicators such as coral terraces and notches. Varied elevations of middle-to-late Holocene coral terraces along the west Luzon coasts reveal the differential uplift that is probably associated with the movement of local onland faults or upper-plate structures across the Manila Trench forearc basin. In Badoc Island, offshore west of Luzon mainland, we found notably young fossil corals, dated at 945.1 ± 4.6 years BP and 903.1 ± 3.9 years BP, on top of a 5-m-high reef platform. To constrain the mechanism of emergence or emplacement of these fossil corals, we use field geomorphic data and wave inundation models to constrain an extreme wave event that affected west Luzon about 1000 years ago. Our preliminary tectonic and tsunami models show that a megathrust rupture will likely lead to subsidence of a large part of the west Luzon coast, while permanent coastal uplift is attributed to an offshore upper-plate rupture in the northern Manila Trench forearc region. The modeled source fault ruptures and tsunami lead to a maximum wave height of more than 3 m and inundation distance as far as 2 km along the coasts of western and northern Luzon. While emplacement of coral boulders by an unusually strong typhoon is also likely, modeled storm surge heights along west Luzon do not exceed 2 m even with Typhoon Haiyan characteristics. Whether tsunami or unusually strong typhoon, the occurrence of a prehistoric extreme wave event in west Luzon remains an important issue in future studies of coastal hazards in the South China Sea region.

  8. Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

    2013-01-01

    During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

  9. Relationships between lake-level changes and water and salt budgets in the Dead Sea during extreme aridities in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiro, Yael; Goldstein, Steven L.; Garcia-Veigas, Javier; Levy, Elan; Kushnir, Yochanan; Stein, Mordechai; Lazar, Boaz

    2017-04-01

    Thick halite intervals recovered by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project cores show evidence for severely arid climatic conditions in the eastern Mediterranean during the last three interglacials. In particular, the core interval corresponding to the peak of the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e or MIS 5e) contains ∼30 m of salt over 85 m of core length, making this the driest known period in that region during the late Quaternary. This study reconstructs Dead Sea lake levels during the salt deposition intervals, based on water and salt budgets derived from the Dead Sea brine composition and the amount of salt in the core. Modern water and salt budgets indicate that halite precipitates only during declining lake levels, while the amount of dissolved Na+ and Cl- accumulates during wetter intervals. Based on the compositions of Dead Sea brines from pore waters and halite fluid inclusions, we estimate that ∼12-16 cm of halite precipitated per meter of lake-level drop. During periods of halite precipitation, the Mg2+ concentration increases and the Na+/Cl- ratio decreases in the lake. Our calculations indicate major lake-level drops of ∼170 m from lake levels of 320 and 310 m below sea level (mbsl) down to lake levels of ∼490 and ∼480 mbsl, during MIS 5e and the Holocene, respectively. These lake levels are much lower than typical interglacial lake levels of around 400 mbsl. These lake-level drops occurred as a result of major decreases in average fresh water runoff, to ∼40% of the modern value (pre-1964, before major fresh water diversions), reflecting severe droughts during which annual precipitation in Jerusalem was lower than 350 mm/y, compared to ∼600 mm/y today. Nevertheless, even during salt intervals, the changes in halite facies and the occurrence of alternating periods of halite and detritus in the Dead Sea core stratigraphy reflect fluctuations between drier and wetter conditions around our estimated average. The halite intervals include

  10. Sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warrick, R.A.; Oerlemans, J.

    1990-01-01

    This Section addresses three questions: Has global-mean sea level been rising during the last 100 years? What are the causal factors that could explain a past rise in sea level? And what increases in sea level can be expected in the future?

  11. Shrinking Sea Ice, Thawing Permafrost, Bigger Storms, and Extremely Limited Data - Addressing Information Needs of Stakeholders in Western Alaska Through Participatory Decisions and Collaborative Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. A.; Reynolds, J.

    2015-12-01

    Communities, Tribes, and decision makers in coastal western Alaska are being impacted by declining sea ice, sea level rise, changing storm patterns and intensities, and increased rates of coastal erosion. Relative to their counterparts in the contiguous USA, their ability to plan for and respond to these changes is constrained by the region's generally meager or non-existent information base. Further, the information needs and logistic challenges are of a scale that perhaps can be addressed only through strong, strategic collaboration. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are fundamentally about applied science and collaboration, especially collaborative decision making. The Western Alaska LCC has established a process of participatory decision making that brings together researchers, agency managers, local experts from Tribes and field specialists to identify and prioritize shared information needs; develop a course of action to address them by using the LCC's limited resources to catalyze engagement, overcome barriers to progress, and build momentum; then ensure products are delivered in a manner that meets decision makers' needs. We briefly review the LCC's activities & outcomes from the stages of (i) collaborative needs assessment (joint with the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Alaska Ocean Observing System), (ii) strategic science activities, and (iii) product refinement and delivery. We discuss lessons learned, in the context of our recent program focused on 'Changes in Coastal Storms and Their Impacts' and current collaborative efforts focused on delivery of Coastal Resiliency planning tools and results from applied science projects. Emphasis is given to the various key interactions between scientists and decision makers / managers that have been promoted by this process to ensure alignment of final products to decision maker needs.

  12. Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier-island chain and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    Barrier-island chains worldwide are undergoing substantial changes, and their futures remain uncertain. An historical analysis of a barrier-island chain in the north-central Gulf of Mexico shows that the Mississippi barriers are undergoing rapid systematic land loss and translocation associated with: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition; (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of shores along the Gulf and Mississippi Sound; and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. Dauphin Island, Alabama, is also losing land for some of the same reasons as it gradually migrates landward. The principal causes of land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a sediment-budget deficit. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is certain that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate unless the trend of at least one causal factor reverses. Historical land-loss trends and engineering records show that progressive increases in land-loss rate correlate with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. This correlation indicates that channel-maintenance activities along the MS-AL barriers have impacted the sediment budget by disrupting the alongshore sediment transport system and progressively reducing sand supply. Direct management of this causal factor can be accomplished by strategically placing dredged sediment where adjacent barrier-island shores will receive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.

  13. High-resolution reconstruction of extreme storm events over the North Sea during the Late Holocene: inferences from aeolian sand influx in coastal mires, Western Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jerome; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-04-01

    Possessing long and accurate archives of storm events worldwide is the key for a better understanding of the atmospheric patterns driving these events and of the response of the coastal systems to storms. To be adequately addressed, the ongoing and potential future changes in wind regimes (including in particular the frequency and magnitude of storm events) have to be replaced in the context of long-time records of past storminess, i.e. longer than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data which do not allow the calculation of reliable return periods. During the last decade, several Holocene storminess chronologies have been based on storm-traces left by aeolian processes within coastal lakes, mires and peat bogs, (e.g. Björck and Clemmensen, 2004; De Jong et al., 2006; Clemmensen et al., 2009; Nielsen et al.; 2016; Orme et al., 2016). These data have shown to adequately complement the records which can be derived from the study of records related to wave-induced processes including e.g. washover deposits. Previous works along the west coast of Jutland, Denmark have revealed four main periods of dune building during the last 4200 yrs (Clemmensen et al., 2001; 2009). These were shown to be in phase with periods of climate deterioration (cold periods) recognized elsewhere in Europe and the North Atlantic region and suggest periods of increased aeolian activity. Yet, doubts remain on whether these periods where characterized by several big short-lived storm events or rather by an overall increase in wind energy. This study aims at constructing a high-resolution (centennial to multi-decadal) history of past storminess over the North Sea for the last millenaries. Plurimeter sequences of peat and gyttja have been retrieved from two coastal mires and were analyzed for their sand content. The quartz grains were systematically counted within centimetric slices (Aeolian Sand Influx method, Björck & Clemmensen, 2004), while the palaeo-environmental context and

  14. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  15. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  16. Space-time extreme wind waves: Analysis and prediction of shape and height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvise, Benetazzo; Francesco, Barbariol; Filippo, Bergamasco; Sandro, Carniel; Mauro, Sclavo

    2017-05-01

    In this study, we present the analysis of the temporal profile and height of space-time (ST) extreme wind waves. Wave data were gathered from an observational ST sample of sea surface elevations collected during an active sea state, and they were examined to detect the highest waves (exceeding the rogue wave threshold) of specific 3D wave groups close to the apex of their development. Two different investigations are conducted. Firstly, local maximum elevations of the groups are examined within the framework of statistical models for ST extreme waves, and compared with observations and predictions of maxima derived by one-point time series of sea surface elevations. Secondly, the temporal profile near the maximum wave crests is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear and second-order nonlinear extension of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Our goal is to verify, with real sea data, to what extent, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of near-focusing large 3D wave groups using the QD and ST extreme model results. From this study, it emerges that the elevations close to the crest apex are narrowly distributed around a mean profile, whilst a larger dispersion is observed away from the maximum elevation. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the maximum wave heights, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, we discuss how the combination of ST extreme and QD model predictions allows establishing, for a given sea condition, the portrait of waves with very large crest height. Our results show that these theories have the potential to be implemented in a numerical spectral model for wave extreme prediction.

  17. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  18. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  19. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  20. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  1. On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

    1994-01-01

    The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave hei...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

  2. Flooding hazards from sea extremes and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Vognsen, Karsten; Broge, Niels

    2015-01-01

    hazards needs to integrate the water loading from various sources. Furthermore, local subsidence must be accounted for in order to evaluate current and future flooding hazards and management options. We present the methodology (Figure) and preliminary results from the research project “Coastal Flooding...

  3. Extreme meteo-oceanic events

    OpenAIRE

    Mazas , Franck

    2017-01-01

    This PhD on published works aims at unifying the works carried out on the topic of extreme metocean events since 2009, while working for SOGREAH then ARTELIA.As these works went along, a leading theme progressively appeared: the notion of event, such as a storm. This concept provides a sound and relevant framework in particular in the case of multivariate extremes (such as joint probabilities of waves and sea levels), as well as a better understanding of the notion of return period, much used...

  4. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  5. Humans expect generosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Rodríguez-Lara, Ismael; Sánchez, Angel

    2017-02-01

    Mechanisms supporting human ultra-cooperativeness are very much subject to debate. One psychological feature likely to be relevant is the formation of expectations, particularly about receiving cooperative or generous behavior from others. Without such expectations, social life will be seriously impeded and, in turn, expectations leading to satisfactory interactions can become norms and institutionalize cooperation. In this paper, we assess people’s expectations of generosity in a series of controlled experiments using the dictator game. Despite differences in respective roles, involvement in the game, degree of social distance or variation of stakes, the results are conclusive: subjects seldom predict that dictators will behave selfishly (by choosing the Nash equilibrium action, namely giving nothing). The majority of subjects expect that dictators will choose the equal split. This implies that generous behavior is not only observed in the lab, but also expected by subjects. In addition, expectations are accurate, matching closely the donations observed and showing that as a society we have a good grasp of how we interact. Finally, correlation between expectations and actual behavior suggests that expectations can be an important ingredient of generous or cooperative behavior.

  6. Biology and ecology of the ``Pompeii worm'' (Alvinella pompejana Desbruyères and Laubier), a normal dweller of an extreme deep-sea environment: A synthesis of current knowledge and recent developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desbruyères, D.; Chevaldonné, P.; Alayse, A.-M.; Jollivet, D.; Lallier, F. H.; Jouin-Toulmond, C.; Zal, F.; Sarradin, P.-M.; Cosson, R.; Caprais, J.-C.; Arndt, C.; O'Brien, J.; Guezennec, J.; Hourdez, S.; Riso, R.; Gaill, F.; Laubier, L.; Toulmond, A.

    1998-01-01

    Alvinella pompejana, the "Pompeii worm" lives on active hydrothermal edifices at deep-sea vents of the East Pacific Rise. The physical and chemical patterns of its microhabitat were determined from temperature probe measurements, temperature time series, and on-board and shore-based chemical analyses based on discrete sampling (pH, H 2S, CO 2, CH 4, S 2O 2-3, Ca, Mg, Cu, Cd, Zn). The microhabitat is characterised by high temporal and microscale spatial variability, with temperature values in the range of 20°-45°C at the immediate periphery of tubes but reaching higher, still undetermined, values inside the tubes. The difference observed between in vitro temperature limits for the stability of biomolecules and metabolic rates, and suggested in situ conditions seems to indicate a significant protective role of biological interfaces (tubes and cuticle). Temporal instability possibly also plays an important role in the ability for these worms to colonise such an extreme habitat. The functional role of dominant epibiotic bacteria is discussed in the light of recent biochemical and molecular data: the tube-worm-bacteria system can be considered as a symbiotic entity where carbon is probably metabolised and recycled. Sulphide detoxification occurs by oxidation at the gill level and possibly at the intracellular haemoglobin level. Heavy metals, ingested or absorbed, are trapped in spherocrystals and bound to metallothionein-like proteins. Anatomical, physiological and molecular adaptations to hypoxia allow the worm to successfully colonise the chimneys. A. pompejana lives in an ephemeral environment and must reproduce and disperse accordingly. It is a gonochoric species that displays a pseucopulatory behaviour allowing transfer of sperm to female spermathecae, thus avoiding dispersion of the gametes. The size of the oocytes suggests a lecithotrophic or benthic development. The population size structure is polymodal, indicating discontinuous recruitment. Population

  7. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  8. Marijuana: College Students' Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumstein, Regina

    1980-01-01

    Focused on college students' expectations about marijuana. Undergraduates (N=210) expected marijuana to have sedating effects; they largely discounted psychological consequences. Students considered marijuana to be an educational issue and favored decriminalization of the drug. Users, occasional users, and nonusers differed significantly in…

  9. Query complexity in expectation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaniewski, J.; Lee, T.; de Wolf, R.; Halldórsson, M.M.; Iwama, K.; Kobayashi, N.; Speckmann, B.

    2015-01-01

    We study the query complexity of computing a function f:{0,1}n→R+ in expectation. This requires the algorithm on input x to output a nonnegative random variable whose expectation equals f(x), using as few queries to the input x as possible. We exactly characterize both the randomized and the quantum

  10. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred...

  11. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  12. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  13. Extreme winds over Denmark from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, H.P.

    2001-05-01

    An extreme wind analysis of wind speed calculated in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is done for grid points over and near Denmark. Winds at 10 m, 850 hPa, and geostrophic winds at 850 hPa, 1000 hPa, and at the sea level are analyzed. At 10 m height the expected extreme wind with a return period of 50 years at the North Sea west of Denmark is 27 ms{sup -1}. It is approximately 11 % less than estimates from observations. However, values at grid points over land in Denmark cannot be compared with observations because the roughness length of these land surfaces is far to big in the model. A transformation to a common roughness length of 5 cm using the geostrophic drag law yields too high values. At points in northern Germany, where the surface roughness of the model is less, the transformed 50-years wind speed is 22-23 ms{sup -1}, which agrees well with estimates obtained from measurements. The analyses of the wind at 850 hPa and the geostrophic wind at 850 hPa or 1000 hPa yield very similar extreme winds of approximately 42 ms{sup -1}. The geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure is approximately 45 ms{sup -1} in central Denmark. The geostrophic winds at 1000 hPa are slightly stronger than at 850 hPa, which are somewhat greater than the actual wind at 850 hPa. Transformations to a wind at 10 m over a surface with roughness 5 cm with the help of the drag law yield extreme winds, which are approximately 10-12 % less than from surface measurements. The 850 hPa winds and the geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure indicate a weak decrease from west to east, whereas the geostrophic wind data at constant pressure levels show almost constant extreme winds across Denmark. All upper-air and geostrophic wind data show higher extreme winds in northern Germany than in Denmark. Further investigations are necessary to find out if the underestimation of the extreme wind by approximately 10-12 % is valid in most mid-latitudes. (au)

  14. Food web structure and vulnerability of a deep-sea ecosystem in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Christensen, Villy; Company, Joan B.; Ramírez-Llodra, Eva; Sardà, Francisco

    2013-05-01

    There is increasing fishing pressure on the continental margins of the oceans, and this raises concerns about the vulnerability of the ecosystems thriving there. The current knowledge of the biology of deep-water fish species identifies potential reduced resilience to anthropogenic disturbance. However, there are extreme difficulties in sampling the deep sea, resulting in poorly resolved and indirectly obtained food-web relationships. Here, we modelled the flows and biomasses of a Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystem, the Catalan Sea continental slope at depths of 1000-1400 m. This is the first model of a deep-water ecosystem in the Mediterranean Sea. The objectives were to (a) quantitatively describe the food web structure of the ecosystem, (b) examine the role of key species in the ecosystem, and (c) explore the vulnerability of this deep-sea ecosystem to potential future fishing exploitation. We used the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modelling approach and software to model the ecosystem. The trophic model included 18 consumers, a marine snow group, and a sediment detritus group. Trophic network analysis identified low levels of consumer biomass cycling and low system omnivory index when compared with expected values of marine ecosystems, and higher cycling and omnivory when compared with available EwE models of shallower areas of the Mediterranean Sea. The majority of flows in the ecosystem were concentrated at the trophic level of first-order consumers (TL 2). Benthic invertebrates and demersal sharks were identified to have key ecological roles in the ecosystem. We used the dynamic temporal model Ecosim to simulate expansion of the red-shrimp benthic trawl fishery that currently operates at shallower depths, down to 800 m depth. The simulations showed reductions in fish biomass and that the state of the deep continental slope ecosystem in the western Mediterranean seems to be the result of a long-term succession process, which has reached ecological stability, and is

  15. Analysis of Flood Risk Due to Sea Level Rise in the Menor Sea (Murcia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Martínez-Graña

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the coastal vulnerability and flood risk due to sea level rise in the Menor Sea, Murcia (Spain. The vulnerability has been estimated from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery using Remote Sensing techniques. The risk of coastal flooding was calculated based on various time scenarios (X0-current, X1-100 years, X2-500 years, X3-1000 years, X4-Storm, X5-Tsunami. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing techniques were used to build a regional model to predict changes in the mean sea level for several future scenarios, showing susceptible areas to be flooded. We have included new parameters to the model such as swell, mareal range or neotectonic factors aiming to better adjust it to the local conditions. The results showed a high risk of flooding in the barrier beach and coastal areas of the Menor Sea, with a medium to very high degree of vulnerability for the most populated and touristic areas. The maximum and minimum expected increase of the water sheet for the 100 year scenarios ranged from +4.22 to +5.69 m. This methodology can establish sectors that need structural measures to minimize the impact of the sea level rise occurring due to natural tendency in the short or long term, as well as by extreme events such as storm surges or tsunamis. Furthermore, it can be used in other areas to assist land management decision makers to reduce or mitigate the vulnerability and risk presented against the rise of the sea level.

  16. Deep-water zooplankton in the Mediterranean Sea: Results from a continuous, synchronous sampling over different regions using sediment traps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danovaro, R.; Carugati, L.; Boldrin, A.; Calafat, A.; Canals, M.; Fabres, J.; Finlay, K.; Heussner, S.; Miserocchi, S.; Sanchez-Vidal, A.

    2017-08-01

    Information on the dynamics of deep-sea biota is extremely scant particularly for long-term time series on deep-sea zooplankton. Here, we present the results of a deep-sea zooplankton investigation over one annual cycle based on samples from sediment trap moorings in three sub-basins along the Mediterranean Sea. Deep-sea zooplankton assemblages were dominated by copepods, as in shallow waters, only in the Adriatic Sea (>60% of total abundance), but not in the deep Ionian Sea, where ostracods represented >80%, neither in the deep Alboran Sea, where polychaetes were >70%. We found that deep-sea zooplankton assemblages: i) are subjected to changes in their abundance and structure over time, ii) are characterized by different dominant taxa in different basins, and iii) display clear taxonomic segregation between shallow and near-bottom waters. Zooplankton biodiversity decreases with increasing water depth, but the equitability increases. We suggest here that variations of zooplankton abundance and assemblage structure are likely influenced by the trophic condition characterizing the basins. Our findings provide new insights on this largely unknown component of the deep ocean, and suggest that changes in the export of organic matter from the photic zone, such as those expected as a consequence of global change, can significantly influence zooplankton assemblages in the largest biome on Earth.

  17. Expect Respect: Healthy Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Listen Español Text Size Email Print Share Expect Respect: Healthy Relationships Page Content Article Body Signs of ... good about what happens when they are together. Respect You ask each other what you want to ...

  18. Extreme Environment Technologies for Space and Terrestrial Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balint, Tibor S.; Cutts, James A.; Kolawa, Elizabeth A.; Peterson, Craig E.

    2008-01-01

    Over the next decades, NASA's planned solar system exploration missions are targeting planets, moons and small bodies, where spacecraft would be expected to encounter diverse extreme environmental (EE) conditions throughout their mission phases. These EE conditions are often coupled. For instance, near the surface of Venus and in the deep atmospheres of giant planets, probes would experience high temperatures and pressures. In the Jovian system low temperatures are coupled with high radiation. Other environments include thermal cycling, and corrosion. Mission operations could also introduce extreme conditions, due to atmospheric entry heat flux and deceleration. Some of these EE conditions are not unique to space missions; they can be encountered by terrestrial assets from the fields of defense,oil and gas, aerospace, and automotive industries. In this paper we outline the findings of NASA's Extreme Environments Study Team, including discussions on state of the art and emerging capabilities related to environmental protection, tolerance and operations in EEs. We will also highlight cross cutting EE mitigation technologies, for example, between high g-load tolerant impactors for Europa and instrumented projectiles on Earth; high temperature electronics sensors on Jupiter deep probes and sensors inside jet engines; and pressure vessel technologies for Venus probes and sea bottom monitors. We will argue that synergistic development programs between these fields could be highly beneficial and cost effective for the various agencies and industries. Some of these environments, however, are specific to space and thus the related technology developments should be spear headed by NASA with collaboration from industry and academia.

  19. Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is

  20. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from...... statistical learning, causing comparatively sharper key profiles in musicians, we hypothesised that musical learning can be modelled as a process of entropy reduction through experience. Specifically, implicit learning of statistical regularities allows reduction in the relative entropy (i.e. symmetrised...... Kullback-Leibler or Jensen-Shannon Divergence) between listeners’ prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions of a musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians were revisited. In Experiments 1-2 participants...

  1. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  2. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  3. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  4. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  5. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    This paper studies the properties of bond risk premia in the cross-section of subjective expectations. We exploit an extensive dataset of yield curve forecasts from financial institutions and document a number of novel findings. First, contrary to evidence presented for stock markets but consiste...... of heterogeneous beliefs is taken into account....

  6. Great Expectations. [Lesson Plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devine, Kelley

    Based on Charles Dickens' novel "Great Expectations," this lesson plan presents activities designed to help students understand the differences between totalitarianism and democracy; and a that a writer of a story considers theme, plot, characters, setting, and point of view. The main activity of the lesson involves students working in groups to…

  7. Parenting with High Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timperlake, Benna Hull; Sanders, Genelle Timperlake

    2014-01-01

    In some ways raising deaf or hard of hearing children is no different than raising hearing children; expectations must be established and periodically tweaked. Benna Hull Timperlake, who with husband Roger, raised two hearing children in addition to their deaf daughter, Genelle Timperlake Sanders, and Genelle, now a deaf professional, share their…

  8. Japan nuclear ship sea trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazaki, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Toshikatus; Mizushima, Toshihiko

    1992-01-01

    The sea trial of the first Japan nuclear Ship 'MUTSU' was conducted from the end of October to December in 1990. The purpose of the sea trial was to verify the nuclear propulsive performances and maneuverabilities. The present report describes the results of the sea trial. These results are classified into four items: 1. Speed test and engineering performance tests 2. Maneuvering performance tests 3. Vibration tests 4. Other tests. Acceptable performances were demonstrated, as expected in the original design. The experience of the use of the Global Positioning System (GPS), which were newly adopted for the sea trial, is also reported. (author)

  9. Solar extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Hugh S.

    2015-08-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of “extreme events,” defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than S-2, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial 14C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observational results have impacted our use of the relatively limited historical record in new ways: the detection of actual events in the 14C tree-ring records, and the systematic observations of flares and “superflares” by the Kepler spacecraft. I discuss how these new findings may affect our understanding of the distribution function expected for extreme solar events.

  10. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations.......The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative...

  11. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  12. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    This paper exploits the unexpected decline in the death rate from cardiovascular diseases since the 1970s as a large positive health shock that affected predominantly old-age mortality; i.e. the fourth stage of the epidemiological transition. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy......, we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  13. Reputation and Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Torben; Risager, Ole

    1987-01-01

    The paper considers the importance of reputation in relation to disinflationary policies in a continuous time ration expectations model, where the private sector has incomplete information about the true preferences of the government. It is proved that there is a unique equilibrium with the important property that the costs of disinflation arise in the start of the game where the policy has not yet gained credibility. Published in connection with a visit at the IIES.

  14. Coastal-storm Inundation and Sea-level Rise in New Zealand Scott A. Stephens and Rob Bell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, S. A.; Bell, R.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal-storm inundation is a growing problem in New Zealand. It happens occasionally, when the combined forces of weather and sea line up, causing inundation of low-elevation land, coastal erosion, and rivers and stormwater systems to back up causing inland flooding. This becomes a risk where we have placed buildings and infrastructure too close to the coast. Coastal-storm inundation is not a new problem, it has happened historically, but it is becoming more frequent as the sea level continues to rise. From analyses of historic extreme sea-level events, we show how the different sea-level components, such as tide and storm surge, contribute to extreme sea-level and how these components vary around New Zealand. Recent sea-level analyses reveal some large storm surges, bigger than previously reported, and we show the type of weather patterns that drive them, and how this leads to differences in storm surge potential between the east and west coasts. Although large and damaging storm-tides have occurred historically, we show that there is potential for considerably larger elevations to be reached in the "perfect storm", and we estimate the likelihood of such extreme events occurring. Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly increase the frequency, depth and consequences of coastal-storm inundation in the future. We show an application of a new method to determine the increasing frequency of extreme sea-levels with SLR, one which integrates the extreme tail with regularly-occurring high tides. We present spatial maps of several extreme sea-level threshold exceedance statistics for a case study at Mission Bay, Auckland, New Zealand. The maps show how the local community is likely to face decision points at various SLR thresholds, and we conclude that coastal hazard assessments should ideally use several SLR scenarios and time windows within the next 100 years or more to support the decision-making process for future coastal adaptation and when response options will be needed

  15. The radioactivity of the sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, M.I.; Rose, K.S.B.

    1990-01-01

    The radioactivity in the world's surface sea water averages 13.6 Bq/kg of water. Over 88% of this activity arises from a single natural radionuclide, 40 K, and 7% of the remainder results from nuclear weapon test fallout. Variations in the radioactivity occur due to changes in salinity, weapon test fallout and discharges of artificial radionuclides, and are examined here on the basis of published measurements. The most radioactive sea identified by these measurements is the Dead Sea, which averages 178 Bq/kg due to its high salinity. Other enclosed, highly saline waters can be expected to have similar levels. The radioactivity in open seas varies within a much narrower range, generally within 20% of the world average. The highest averages are found in the Persian Gulf (22 Bq/kg), the Red Sea (15 Bq/kg) and the Eastern Mediterranean (14.6 Bq/kg). The Irish Sea averaged 13.7 Bq/kg in 1987, with the effect of the Sellafield discharges being partly offset by lower than average salinity. Although higher levels occurred in the Irish Sea during the 1970s when the Sellafield discharges were higher, the average level has always been much less than that in the Dead Sea, so that the Irish Sea has never been the most radioactive sea in the world. Exceptionally low levels of radioactivity (4 Bq/kg) occur in the Baltic Sea due to dilution by fresh water. (author)

  16. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available the stability of the parameter estimates. 9 / 27 Background Overview of the Theory of Extremes Case Studies Concluding Remarks Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events Analysis of Extreme Wave Heights Figure: Map of South Africa with the study areas... highlighted 10 / 27 Background Overview of the Theory of Extremes Case Studies Concluding Remarks Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events Analysis of Extreme Wave Heights Western Cape Climatologically diverse: Influence of the varied topography and it’s...

  17. Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  18. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  19. Expectation changes and team characteristics in a participatory design process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazley, Conne Mara; De Jong, Annelise; Vink, Peter

    2012-01-01

    A human factors specialist researched the expectations of a culturally and professionally diverse team throughout a year long participatory design process of a large processing facility. For a deeper understanding of high-level team expectations and characteristics, the specialist collected data and information through in-situ ethnography and traditional case study methods, personal interviews, and a questionnaire that included a likert scale rating for expectation levels. Results found that expectation levels rated extremely satisfied for individual team members and the overall team itself before and during the participatory process. In contrast, expectations for upper management from the team were satisfied before the participatory process, but changed to uncertain, to unsatisfied, to extremely unsatisfied during the process. Additionally, the participatory design team exhibited high-level team characteristics to include honesty, competence, commitment, communication, creativity, and clear expectations.

  20. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  1. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  2. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  3. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and

  4. Sociocultural Adaptation of Caboclos Communities to Extreme Tidal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Patterns of Caboclo perceptions and responses to increasing extreme flood events across the Amazon estuary. Download PDF. Studies. Socio-ecological resilience in the context of sea level rise. Download PDF. Reports. Patterns of Caboclo perceptions and responses to increasing extreme flood events across the Amazon ...

  5. Sociocultural Adaptation of Caboclos Communities to Extreme Tidal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Études. Patterns of Caboclo perceptions and responses to increasing extreme flood events across the Amazon estuary. Études. Socio-ecological resilience in the context of sea level rise. Rapports. Patterns of Caboclo perceptions and responses to increasing extreme flood events across the Amazon estuary. Rapports.

  6. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlene N. Kelly; Kevin J. McGuire; Chelcy Ford Miniat; James M. Vose

    2016-01-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the...

  7. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  8. Rising to the challenge of surging seas

    OpenAIRE

    2017-01-01

    Amid increasingly extreme projections for future sea-level rise, concerns are mounting that policymakers are struggling to keep abreast of fast-paced scientific developments. To ease this burden and increase the accessibility of published research, we have compiled an editor-curated collection of the most recent sea-level rise articles published at Nature Communications.

  9. Upper Extremity Length Equalization

    OpenAIRE

    DeCoster, Thomas A.; Ritterbusch, John; Crawford, Mark

    1992-01-01

    Significant upper extremity length inequality is uncommon but can cause major functional problems. The ability to position and use the hand may be impaired by shortness of any of the long bones of the upper extremity. In many respects upper and lower extremity length problems are similar. They most commonly occur after injury to a growing bone and the treatment modalities utilized in the lower extremity may be applied to the upper extremity. These treatment options include epiphysiodesis, sho...

  10. Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Ardehed

    Full Text Available Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a

  11. Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans) in the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardehed, Angelica; Johansson, Daniel; Sundqvist, Lisa; Schagerström, Ellen; Zagrodzka, Zuzanna; Kovaltchouk, Nikolaj A; Bergström, Lena; Kautsky, Lena; Rafajlovic, Marina; Pereyra, Ricardo T; Johannesson, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a need for more

  12. Red cell function at extreme altitude on Mount Everest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, R M; Samaja, M; West, J B

    1984-01-01

    As part of the American Medical Research Expedition to Everest in 1981, we measured hemoglobin concentration, red cell 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG), Po2 at which hemoglobin is 50% saturated (P50), and acid-base status in expedition members at various altitudes. All measurements were made in expedition laboratories and, with the exception of samples from the South Col of Mt. Everest (8,050 m), within 2 h of blood collection. In vivo conditions were estimated from direct measurements of arterial blood gases and pH or inferred from base excess and alveolar PCO2. As expected, increased 2,3-DPG was associated with slightly increased P50, when expressed at pH 7.4. Because of respiratory alkalosis, however, the subjects' in vivo P50 at 6,300 m (27.6 Torr) was slightly less than at sea level (28.1 Torr). The estimated in vivo P50 was progressively lower at 8,050 m (24.9 Torr) and on the summit at 8,848 m (19.4 Torr in one subject). Our data suggest that, at extreme altitude, the blood O2 equilibrium curve shifts progressively leftward because of respiratory alkalosis. This left shift protects arterial O2 saturation at extreme altitude.

  13. Challenges, fears and expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jože Urbanija

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with developmental projections in the future. In the light of the accelerated development of civilization periods, we can talk about postinformation era or at least about its characteristics which are directly related to basic questions of life and society and problems of survival concerning library and information sciences. In the frames of globalization and individualization, the users will turn from quantity of information to selective and quality ones.As to the contents, these information will be related to the basic facts of life and society and the problems of survival (globalization on one hand, while on the other, they will be more focused, more confined as to their contents and of higher quality necessary for individual performance and survival (individualization. In the background of these events, even more fears than today will be rising, related to loss of work, loss of professional identity, loss of the sense of meaning, loss of economical and social standard. From the actual situation and from the above mentioned fears expectations will arise. It will be possible to master the quantity of information with information and communication technologies and to enable access to them while human cognitive abilities will represent a bottleneck to their flow also in the future. An important field of the work of librarians in the future will be in the area of interdisciplinary connections with cognitive sciences.

  14. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  15. Expectations and speech intelligibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, Molly; Russell, Jamie

    2015-05-01

    Socio-indexical cues and paralinguistic information are often beneficial to speech processing as this information assists listeners in parsing the speech stream. Associations that particular populations speak in a certain speech style can, however, make it such that socio-indexical cues have a cost. In this study, native speakers of Canadian English who identify as Chinese Canadian and White Canadian read sentences that were presented to listeners in noise. Half of the sentences were presented with a visual-prime in the form of a photo of the speaker and half were presented in control trials with fixation crosses. Sentences produced by Chinese Canadians showed an intelligibility cost in the face-prime condition, whereas sentences produced by White Canadians did not. In an accentedness rating task, listeners rated White Canadians as less accented in the face-prime trials, but Chinese Canadians showed no such change in perceived accentedness. These results suggest a misalignment between an expected and an observed speech signal for the face-prime trials, which indicates that social information about a speaker can trigger linguistic associations that come with processing benefits and costs.

  16. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  17. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  18. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  19. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  20. Attribution of climate extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  1. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Sunyer, Maria; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-05-01

    During the past 30 years rather dramatic changes in extreme precipitation have been observed in Denmark. These changes are mainly in the frequency of extreme events, but there is also a tendency towards more severe events. Both are considered effects of anthropogenic climate change. The increase in precipitation extremes has led to inundations in most of the larger cities during the last 10 years. The flood in Copenhagen in 2011 implied the second highest damage costs measured in Denmark during the last 100 years. To establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods robust projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate are needed. Additionally, it is equally important to understand the natural variation on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate the changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall. Trends and oscillations are identified in five daily precipitation records from 1874 to present, 83 records from high-resolution rain-gauges from 1979 to present and 18 state-of-the-art climate model simulations. It is shown that the frequency of extreme events in the past has oscillated with a cycle of 25-35 years, a behavior that can in part be explained by sea level pressure differences over the Atlantic. Projections based on the historical observations suggest that precipitation extremes in the Eastern part of Denmark should have been ascending in the last two decades. However, the increase has continued longer than expected and with larger amplitude in the most recent years. This indicates a likely influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With the complex combination of general increase and natural variation several additional years of observation are needed before this hypothesis can be evaluated by statistical means. Extensive analysis of 18 different regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that anthropogenic

  2. Quorum sensing in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Kate; Charlesworth, James C; LeBard, Rebecca; Visscher, Pieter T; Burns, Brendan P

    2013-01-29

    Microbial communication, particularly that of quorum sensing, plays an important role in regulating gene expression in a range of organisms. Although this phenomenon has been well studied in relation to, for example, virulence gene regulation, the focus of this article is to review our understanding of the role of microbial communication in extreme environments. Cell signaling regulates many important microbial processes and may play a pivotal role in driving microbial functional diversity and ultimately ecosystem function in extreme environments. Several recent studies have characterized cell signaling in modern analogs to early Earth communities (microbial mats), and characterization of cell signaling systems in these communities may provide unique insights in understanding the microbial interactions involved in function and survival in extreme environments. Cell signaling is a fundamental process that may have co-evolved with communities and environmental conditions on the early Earth. Without cell signaling, evolutionary pressures may have even resulted in the extinction rather than evolution of certain microbial groups. One of the biggest challenges in extremophile biology is understanding how and why some microbial functional groups are located where logically they would not be expected to survive, and tightly regulated communication may be key. Finally, quorum sensing has been recently identified for the first time in archaea, and thus communication at multiple levels (potentially even inter-domain) may be fundamental in extreme environments.

  3. Quorum Sensing in Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Kate; Charlesworth, James C.; LeBard, Rebecca; Visscher, Pieter T.; Burns, Brendan P.

    2013-01-01

    Microbial communication, particularly that of quorum sensing, plays an important role in regulating gene expression in a range of organisms. Although this phenomenon has been well studied in relation to, for example, virulence gene regulation, the focus of this article is to review our understanding of the role of microbial communication in extreme environments. Cell signaling regulates many important microbial processes and may play a pivotal role in driving microbial functional diversity and ultimately ecosystem function in extreme environments. Several recent studies have characterized cell signaling in modern analogs to early Earth communities (microbial mats), and characterization of cell signaling systems in these communities may provide unique insights in understanding the microbial interactions involved in function and survival in extreme environments. Cell signaling is a fundamental process that may have co-evolved with communities and environmental conditions on the early Earth. Without cell signaling, evolutionary pressures may have even resulted in the extinction rather than evolution of certain microbial groups. One of the biggest challenges in extremophile biology is understanding how and why some microbial functional groups are located where logically they would not be expected to survive, and tightly regulated communication may be key. Finally, quorum sensing has been recently identified for the first time in archaea, and thus communication at multiple levels (potentially even inter-domain) may be fundamental in extreme environments. PMID:25371335

  4. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  5. Weather and Climate Extremes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Krause, Paul

    1997-01-01

    .... All extremes are presented in terms of their location and date and, where supportive information is available in the professional literature, detailed discussions of the extreme event are provided...

  6. Rising Seas: Threat to Coastal Areas, A General Study about the Sea Level Rises on Coastal Areas of Earth, its Consequences and Preventive Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataria, A.

    2015-12-01

    Scientific research indicates that sea levels worldwide have been rising at a rate of 3 millimeters per year since the early 1990s (IPCC), which is much higher than the previous century. The recent measurements (march 2015; NASA) tells us that the present rise of sea level is 64.4 mm. Most recent satellite measurements and tide gauge readings (NASA) tell us that present rate sea level rise is 3.20 mm per year. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100. The two main causes of rising seas are thermal expansion and glacier melting which further corresponds to the root cause of sea level rise: Green House effect. For every degree Celsius that global average temperature rises, we can expect 2.3 meters of sea-level rise sometime over the ensuing 2,000 years. The main consequence of Sea level rise is increase in oceanic acidity as it releases the entrapped carbon dioxide in between the glaciers. The problem goes from bad to worse when we take into consideration that one third of the world population lives in a 60 km range from the coast. In the event of a flood, this massive population would have to move away from the coasts. The main objective of research is to find all the most vulnerable areas, to make people aware about the consequences and to take proper measurements to fight with such natural calamities. The rise in sea level would inevitably cause massive migration like never seen before. Over 25% of the world population could disappear if sea levels continues to rise with same or faster rate as present. The oceans, sea life and life of people at coastal areas will get extremely effected unless there are considerable cuts in the carbon dioxide emissions. What we need to do is just to apply all the methods and measurements in our daily life that can help reduce the green house gases emissions. Also we need to plan that how to prevent all these cities in case of such natural hazards.

  7. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  8. Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform

  9. MR angiography of lower extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Takao

    1991-01-01

    MR angiography by ECG-gated 2D rephase-dephase subtraction method was performed in normal volunteers (n=14) and patients with arterial or venous vascular disease of lower extremities (n=36). Results were compared to digital subtraction angiography or conventional film angiography. In normal cases, superficial femoral and popliteal arteries were well demonstrated by angiography whereas visualization of intrapelvic portion of the arteries was often impaired by mortion artifacts from bowel loops. Diagnostic results of MR angiography and digital or conventional angiography were in agreement in 92.3% of obstructive arteriosclerotic disease, 87.0% of post by-pass graft surgery, and 85.7% of cases in which deep vein thrombosis was clinically suspected. Considering its virtually noninvasive nature, MR angiography can be a valuable screening method in vascular diseases of lower extremities and also in post operative evaluation of by-pass graft surgery. Further technical advancements are expected. (author)

  10. MR angiography of lower extremity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujikawa, Takao (Kyorin Univ., Mitaka, Tokyo (Japan). School of Medicine)

    1991-02-01

    MR angiography by ECG-gated 2D rephase-dephase subtraction method was performed in normal volunteers (n=14) and patients with arterial or venous vascular disease of lower extremities (n=36). Results were compared to digital subtraction angiography or conventional film angiography. In normal cases, superficial femoral and popliteal arteries were well demonstrated by angiography whereas visualization of intrapelvic portion of the arteries was often impaired by mortion artifacts from bowel loops. Diagnostic results of MR angiography and digital or conventional angiography were in agreement in 92.3% of obstructive arteriosclerotic disease, 87.0% of post by-pass graft surgery, and 85.7% of cases in which deep vein thrombosis was clinically suspected. Considering its virtually noninvasive nature, MR angiography can be a valuable screening method in vascular diseases of lower extremities and also in post operative evaluation of by-pass graft surgery. Further technical advancements are expected. (author).

  11. High waves in Draupner seas — Part 1 : numerical simulations and characterization of the seas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groesen, E.; Turnip, P.; Kurnia, R.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme waves are studied in numerical simulations of the so-called Draupner seas that resemble the wave situation near the observation area of the Draupner wave, an iconic example of a freak, rogue wave. Recent new meteorological insights describe these seas as a substantial wind-generated wave

  12. Climate change concerns, weather expectations, and willingness to adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Lefevre, C.; Taylor, A.

    2016-12-01

    Adaptation will become necessary as climate change causes more extreme weather worldwide. People with lower climate change concerns may be less willing to act. Yet, people who dismiss climate change may still perceive that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or more intense. It is possible that weather perceptions and change concerns are partially independent constructs, even if they do inform each other. In this research, we ask: 1) How likely do people think that wet, windy, and hot weather events will become worse by 2050? 2) How willing are people to implement climate change adaptation? and 3) Is willingness to adapt to climate change motivated by perceptions of extreme weather, independent of concerns about climate change? To answer these questions, we surveyed two areas with different political views on climate change and extreme weather events, the United States (474 participants) and the United Kingdom (607 participants). We find expectations for extreme weather and willingness to adapt vary between countries; US residents expect hot weather to worsen the most, and for UK residents the least. Willingness to adapt varies as well. Yet, for each type of weather, weather expectations and climate change concerns independently predict willingness to adapt, in the US and the UK. Our findings have implications for communications about climate change adaptation. Willingness to prepare for extreme weather may be higher among individuals with low climate change concerns if the term `climate change' is omitted from communications.

  13. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  14. Sea otter health: Challenging a pet hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2015-01-01

    A recent series of studies on tagged sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) challenges the hypothesis that sea otters are sentinels of a dirty ocean, in particular, that pet cats are the main source of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in central California. Counter to expectations, sea otters from unpopulated stretches of coastline are less healthy and more exposed to parasites than city-associated otters. Ironically, now it seems that spillover from wildlife, not pets, dominates spatial patterns of...

  15. Sea otter health: Challenging a pet hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin D. Lafferty

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A recent series of studies on tagged sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis challenges the hypothesis that sea otters are sentinels of a dirty ocean, in particular, that pet cats are the main source of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in central California. Counter to expectations, sea otters from unpopulated stretches of coastline are less healthy and more exposed to parasites than city-associated otters. Ironically, now it seems that spillover from wildlife, not pets, dominates spatial patterns of disease transmission.

  16. Sea otter health: Challenging a pet hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D

    2015-12-01

    A recent series of studies on tagged sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) challenges the hypothesis that sea otters are sentinels of a dirty ocean, in particular, that pet cats are the main source of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in central California. Counter to expectations, sea otters from unpopulated stretches of coastline are less healthy and more exposed to parasites than city-associated otters. Ironically, now it seems that spillover from wildlife, not pets, dominates spatial patterns of disease transmission.

  17. Sea otter health: challenging a pet hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2015-01-01

    A recent series of studies on tagged sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) challenges the hypothesis that sea otters are sentinels of a dirty ocean, in particular, that pet cats are the main source of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in central California. Counter to expectations, sea otters from unpopulated stretches of coastline are less healthy and more exposed to parasites than city-associated otters. Ironically, now it seems that spillover from wildlife, not pets, dominates spatial patterns of disease transmission.

  18. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Zscheischler, J.

    2013-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Ongoing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that rare climate extremes can lead to a decrease in ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate the expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. In addition to direct impact on the carbon fluxes of photosynthesis and respiration via extreme temperature and (or) drought, effects of extreme events may also lead to lagged responses, such as wildfires triggered by heat waves and droughts, or pest and pathogen outbreaks following wind-throw caused by heavy storms, reduced plant health due to drought stress or due to less frequent cold extremes in presently cold regions. One extreme event can potentially override accumulated previous carbon sinks, as shown by the Western European 2003 heat wave.. Extreme events have the potential to affect the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance through a single factor, or as a combination of factors. Climate extremes can cause carbon losses from accumulated stocks, as well as long-lasting impacts on (e.g. lagged effects) on plant growth and mortality, extending beyond the duration of the extreme event itself. The sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon balance to climate change and extreme events varies according to the type of extreme, the climatic region, the land cover, and the land management. Extreme event impacts are very relevant in forests due to the importance of lagged and memory effects on tree growth and mortality, the longevity of tree species, the large forest carbon stocks and their vulnerability, as well as the

  19. Geomicrobiological exploration and characterization of novel deep-sea hydrothermal activities accompanying with extremely acidic white smokers and elemental sulfur chimneys at the TOTO caldera in the Mariana Volcanic Arc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takai, K.; Nakagawa, T.; Suzuki, Y.; Hirayama, H.; Kosaka, A.; Tsunogai, U.; Gamo, T.; Nealson, K. H.; Horikoshi, K.

    2004-12-01

    Novel hydrothermal activities accompanying effluent white smokers and elemental sulfur chimney structures at the northeast lava dome of the TOTO caldera depression in the Mariana Volcanic Arc were explored by the manned submersible Shinkai 6500 and characterized by geochemical and microbiological surveys. The white smoker hydrothermal fluids were observed in the potential hydrothermal activity center of the field and represented a maximal temperature of 172 degree C and a lowest pH of 1.59, that was the lowest pH of the hydrothermal fluid ever recorded. The chimney structures consisting all of elemental sulfur (sulfur chimney) were also peculiar to the TOTO caldera hydrothermal field in the world. The geochemical characterization strongly suggested that the TOTO caldera hydrothermal field was a novel system driven by subseafloor mixing between the oxygenated seawater and the superheated volcanic gasses. Microbial community structures in a sulfur chimney structure and its formation hydrothermal fluid with a high concentration of hydrogen sulfide (15 mM) were investigated by culture-dependent and _|independent analyses. Ribosomal rRNA gene clone analysis and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis revealed that epsilon-Proteobacteria, specifically classified into Group G and Group B, dominated the microbial communities in the sulfur chimney structure and formed a dense microbial mat covering the sulfur chimney surface. Archaeal phylotypes were consistently minor components in the communities and related to the genera Thermococcus, Pyrodictium, Aeropyrum, and the uncultivated archaeal group of Deep-sea Hydrothermal Vent Euryarchaeotal Group. Cultivation analysis suggested that the microbial components inhabiting in the sulfur chimney structure might be entrained by hydrothermal fluids from the potential subsurface habitats

  20. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  1. Extreme migration and the individual quality spectrum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conklin, J.R.; Senner, N.R.; Battley, P.F.; Piersma, T.

    2017-01-01

    Costsof migration, in terms of time, energy, and mortality risk, have a strong theoretical and empirical foundation in thestudy of birds. We expect these costs to be most severe for extreme long-distance migratory landbirds, whose demandingannual routines (e.g. non-stop flights  8000 km and return

  2. Extreme migration and the individual quality spectrum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conklin, Jesse R.; Senner, Nathan R.; Battley, Philip F.; Piersma, Theunis

    Costs of migration, in terms of time, energy, and mortality risk, have a strong theoretical and empirical foundation in the study of birds. We expect these costs to be most severe for extreme long-distance migratory landbirds, whose demanding annual routines (e.g. non-stop flights > 8000 km and

  3. A Floating Offshore Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof

    and purposes oriented design procedures are the backbone of a cost efficient offshore wind industry. Conventional engineering procedures for the assessment of extreme event impacts, i.e. ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of floating structures, as they have been used in the oil and gas industry, neglect two...... not be sufficient to describe realistic wave shapes and the respective loads, especially in ULS conditions. In shallow or intermediate water depth environments, i.e. when the ratio between the water depth and the wave length becomes smaller than 0.5, waves need to be described by non-linear approaches, in order...... and water depths are considered, where wave shapes in the extreme sea states deviate from the 1st order description. A design basis is developed, which defines parametric extreme sea state caused by measured cyclonic storm conditions. The sea state parameters are defined, such that their reoccurrence...

  4. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme...... that classifies extreme returns for several markets jointly. The new classification scheme holds about the same information as the old one, while demanding a shorter sample period. The new classification scheme is useful....

  5. Technology improves upper extremity rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalczewski, Jan; Prochazka, Arthur

    2011-01-01

    Stroke survivors with hemiparesis and spinal cord injury (SCI) survivors with tetraplegia find it difficult or impossible to perform many activities of daily life. There is growing evidence that intensive exercise therapy, especially when supplemented with functional electrical stimulation (FES), can improve upper extremity function, but delivering the treatment can be costly, particularly after recipients leave rehabilitation facilities. Recently, there has been a growing level of interest among researchers and healthcare policymakers to deliver upper extremity treatments to people in their homes using in-home teletherapy (IHT). The few studies that have been carried out so far have encountered a variety of logistical and technical problems, not least the difficulty of conducting properly controlled and blinded protocols that satisfy the requirements of high-level evidence-based research. In most cases, the equipment and communications technology were not designed for individuals with upper extremity disability. It is clear that exercise therapy combined with interventions such as FES, supervised over the Internet, will soon be adopted worldwide in one form or another. Therefore it is timely that researchers, clinicians, and healthcare planners interested in assessing IHT be aware of the pros and cons of the new technology and the factors involved in designing appropriate studies of it. It is crucial to understand the technical barriers, the role of telesupervisors, the motor improvements that participants can reasonably expect and the process of optimizing IHT-exercise therapy protocols to maximize the benefits of the emerging technology. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

    2017-12-01

    As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase

  7. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  8. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy...

  9. The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

    2018-01-01

    The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

  10. Doppler characteristics of sea clutter.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal, Ann Marie; Doerry, Armin Walter

    2010-06-01

    Doppler radars can distinguish targets from clutter if the target's velocity along the radar line of sight is beyond that of the clutter. Some targets of interest may have a Doppler shift similar to that of clutter. The nature of sea clutter is different in the clutter and exo-clutter regions. This behavior requires special consideration regarding where a radar can expect to find sea-clutter returns in Doppler space and what detection algorithms are most appropriate to help mitigate false alarms and increase probability of detection of a target. This paper studies the existing state-of-the-art in the understanding of Doppler characteristics of sea clutter and scattering from the ocean to better understand the design and performance choices of a radar in differentiating targets from clutter under prevailing sea conditions.

  11. Extreme Winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    : the Mistral in the Gulf of Lions and the Bora in the north Adriatic Sea. It was found that the method introduced here can be applied to places where the extreme wind events are synoptic weather phenomena like in north-western Europe, but a more complicated downscaling, e.g. based on a mesoscale model...... wind. We examined extreme winds in different places where the strongest wind events are weather phenomena of different scales, including the mid-latitude lows in Denmark, channelling winds in the Gulf of Suez, typhoons in the western North Pacific, cyclones in the Caribbean Sea, local strong winds...

  12. Acute lower extremity ischaemia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    often defined as a sudden loss of perfusion to the lower extremity/extremities of less than 14 days' duration, ... Femoral arteries palpated Soft, tender. Hard, calcified. Dystrophic limb features Absent. Present. Cardiac abnormalities Present. Generally absent. Iliac/femoral bruits Absent. May be present. History of claudication ...

  13. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  14. Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbehn, Tom J; Varpe, Øystein

    2017-12-01

    Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high-latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom-up control through primary productivity and top-down control through vision-based foraging. We model effects of sea-ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate-driven sea-ice retreat affects predator-prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice-covered waters, where prey-detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea-ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no-ice scenario to project visual range along two south-north transects with different sea-ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub-Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea-ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long-term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16-fold increase in clearance rate. Top-down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice-edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high-latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high-latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator-prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion

  15. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  16. Modifying alcohol expectancies of Hispanic children: examining the effects of expectancy-targeted, developmentally congruous prevention videos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Allison; Lisman, Stephen A; Johnson, Matthew D

    2015-03-01

    Children's expectations about the effects of alcohol consumption are known to predict the amount of alcohol they consume as adults. Previous research has used videotaped interventions to modify children's alcohol expectancies and found that puppet actors had the expected effect of decreasing children's positive alcohol expectancies, whereas adult actors did not. The current study sought to enhance the methods and outcomes of previous research by developing brief prevention videos that focus on pre-selected negative and sedating alcohol expectancies and include youth actors and age-relevant scenarios. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design (actor's age [youth or adult] × scenario relevance [youth or adult]), we examined the alcohol expectancies of 183 Hispanic third-, fourth-, and fifth-grade students (50% girls) in a public school setting. Expectancies were assessed before, immediately following the intervention, and 1 month later. The intervention consisted of four 8-minute videos based on beliefs associated with expectancies related to low alcohol consumption and a control group video about school bus safety. Positive alcohol expectancies were significantly lower directly after the intervention than at baseline. At 1-month follow-up, this effect decreased but was still significant. The current study adds to existing findings that expectancies can be modified in children, using interventions that are extremely brief, low-cost, and linked to research in children's cognitive and social development. In addition, it appears that children of different ages and genders respond differently to varying components of prevention media.

  17. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  18. Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

  19. Moving in extreme environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Samuel J E; Helge, Jørn W; Schütz, Uwe H W

    2016-01-01

    This review addresses human capacity for movement in the context of extreme loading and with it the combined effects of metabolic, biomechanical and gravitational stress on the human body. This topic encompasses extreme duration, as occurs in ultra-endurance competitions (e.g. adventure racing...... and transcontinental races) and expeditions (e.g. polar crossings), to the more gravitationally limited load carriage (e.g. in the military context). Juxtaposed to these circumstances is the extreme metabolic and mechanical unloading associated with space travel, prolonged bedrest and sedentary lifestyle, which may...

  20. Upper-extremity venography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, J.S.T.; Neiman, H.L.

    1985-01-01

    Symptomatically, patients often present with pain, swelling, and occasionally discoloration of the hand. In the presence of chronic swelling, it may be difficult to differentiate thrombosis from lymphedema, especially in patients who have undergone mastectomy. Noninvasive testing is helpful in differentiating between these two conditions, but venography offers definitive diagnosis. More importantly, venography demonstrates the site as well as the extent of the thrombotic process. Venography of the upper extremity was first introduced in 1931. Unlike the lower extremity, the use of this simple radiographic technique to evaluate venous problems of the upper extremity has received little attention

  1. [Preservation of crushed extremities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, A; Tácsik, I; Juhász, J; Hepp, F

    1976-01-01

    For the conservation of crushed extremities all achievements of up-to-date traumatology are to be used. The impairement of the seriously crushed extremity displays a certain similarity to the polytraumatism involving the whole organism. This is to be taken into consideration in the surgical treatment. Conserving the vitality of the extremity deferred treatment and reconstructive operations at a later date become possible. As absolute rule must be in view that all cases are to be examined with the greatest care and individually, as regards the surgical treatment.

  2. Life on the Edge-the Biology of Organisms Inhabiting Extreme Environments: An Introduction to the Symposium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindgren, Annie R; Buckley, Bradley A; Eppley, Sarah M; Reysenbach, Anna-Louise; Stedman, Kenneth M; Wagner, Josiah T

    2016-10-01

    Life persists, even under extremely harsh conditions. While the existence of extremophiles is well known, the mechanisms by which these organisms evolve, perform basic metabolic functions, reproduce, and survive under extreme physical stress are often entirely unknown. Recent technological advances in terms of both sampling and studying extremophiles have yielded new insight into their evolution, physiology and behavior, from microbes and viruses to plants to eukaryotes. The goal of the "Life on the Edge-the Biology of Organisms Inhabiting Extreme Environments" symposium was to unite researchers from taxonomically and methodologically diverse backgrounds to highlight new advances in extremophile biology. Common themes and new insight that emerged from the symposium included the important role of symbiotic associations, the continued challenges associated with sampling and studying extremophiles and the important role these organisms play in terms of studying climate change. As we continue to explore our planet, especially in difficult to reach areas from the poles to the deep sea, we expect to continue to discover new and extreme circumstances under which life can persist. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Dialysis centers - what to expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kidneys - dialysis centers; Dialysis - what to expect; Renal replacement therapy - dialysis centers; End-stage renal disease - dialysis ... to a tube that connects to the dialysis machine. Your blood will flow through the tube, into ...

  4. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

  5. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  6. Supergravity dual of c-extremization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karndumri, Parinya; Ó Colgáin, Eoin

    2013-05-01

    Recently, a general principle, called c-extremization, which determines the exact R symmetry of two-dimensional conformal field theories with N=(0,2) supersymmetry, was identified. In this work we show that the supergravity dual corresponds to the extremization of the T tensor of N=2 gauged supergravity in three dimensions. To support this claim, we demonstrate that the expected central charge of conformal field theories arising from twisted compactifications of four-dimensional N=4 Super-Yang-Mills on Riemann surfaces, whose gravity dual is a reduction of five-dimensional U(1)3 gauged supergravity, is recovered in the three-dimensional framework.

  7. Ciliates in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaozhong

    2014-01-01

    As eukaryotic microbial life, ciliated protozoan may be found actively growing in some extreme condition where there is a sufficient energy source to sustain it because they are exceedingly adaptable and not notably less adaptable than the prokaryotes. However, a crucial problem in the study of ciliates in extreme environments is the lack of reliable cultivation techniques. To our knowledge, only a tiny fraction of ciliates can be cultured in the laboratory, even for a very limited period, which can partly explain the paucity of our understanding about ciliates diversity in various extremes although the interest in the biodiversity of extremophiles increased significantly during the past three decades. This mini-review aims to compile the knowledge of several groups of free-living ciliates that can be microscopically observed in extreme environmental samples, although most habitats have not been sufficiently well explored for sound generalizations. © 2014 The Author(s) Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology © 2014 International Society of Protistologists.

  8. A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

    2016-08-01

    The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

  9. E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project. Launch; Projet EXTREME. Rapport de lancement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyrolle, F.; Charmasson, S.; Masson, O

    2005-07-01

    Due to the drastic decrease in artificial radioactivity levels from primary sources such as atmospheric fallout or industrial releases, radioactive storages constituted in the past within several environmental compartments act today as non negligible secondary sources. These delayed sources are particularly active during extreme weather or climatic events such as rainfalls or atmospheric deposits, floods, storms, etc...that may remove important mass, generate activity levels higher than the predicted ones from modeling based on mean transfer process, and produce in a couple of hours or days fluxes similar to those accrued over several month or years. Extreme aims at assessing the consequences on man and its environment of natural events that generate extreme radioactive stocks and/or fluxes within several environmental compartments (atmosphere, soils, rivers, coastal marine environment and deep sea areas). (authors)

  10. IODP expedition 347: Baltic Sea basin paleoenvironment and biosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrén, T; Jørgensen, Bo Barker; Cotterill, Carol

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) expedition 347 cored sediments from different set- tings of the Baltic Sea covering the last glacial–interglacial cycle. The main aim was to study the geological development of the Baltic Sea in relation to the extreme climate variability of the region...

  11. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  12. The construction of normal expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Røpke, Inge

    2008-01-01

    The gradual upward changes of standards in normal everyday life have significant environmental implications, and it is therefore important to study how these changes come about. The intention of the article is to analyze the social construction of normal expectations through a case study. The case...... concerns the present boom in bathroom renovations in Denmark, which offers an excellent opportunity to study the interplay between a wide variety of consumption drivers and social changes pointing toward long-term changes of normal expectations regarding bathroom standards. The study is problemoriented......, and the increased focus on body care and fitness. The contours of the emerging normal expectations are outlined and discussed in an environmental perspective....

  13. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  14. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management......In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  15. Measures of serial extremal dependence and their estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Richard A.; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this paper is two-fold: (1) We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. (2) We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series, including regular variation and max-stable processes. Serial...... extremal dependence is typically characterized by clusters of exceedances of high thresholds in the series. We start by discussing the notion of extremal index of a univariate sequence, i.e. the reciprocal of the expected cluster size, which has attracted major attention in the extremal value literature...

  16. Dead sea asphalts: historical aspects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nissenbaum, A.

    1978-05-01

    Asphalts are present in the Dead Sea basin in three forms: (1) huge blocks, up to 100 tons in weight, composed of extremely pure (>99.99%) solid asphalt occasionally found floating on the lake, (2) veins, seepages, and cavity and fissure fillings in Lower Cretaceous to Holocene rocks, and (3) ozocerite veins on the eastern shore of the lake. Dead Sea asphalts probably have been documented over a longer period of time than any other hydrocarbon deposit--from antiquity to the 19th century. Major uses of asphalt from the Dead Sea have been as an ingredient in the embalming process, for medicinal purposes, for fumigation, and for agriculture. The first known war for control of a hydrocarbon deposit was in the Dead Sea area in 312 B.C. between the Seleucid Syrians and the Nabatean Arabs who lived around the lake. Surface manifestations of asphalt are linked closely to tectonic activity. In the lake itself, the asphalt is associated with diapirs During certain historic periods, tectonic and diapiric activity caused frequent liberation to the Dead Sea surface of semiliquid asphalt associated with large amounts of hydrogen sulfide gas. When the tectonic activity was attenuated, as in the 19th and 20th centuries, the rate of asphalt seepage to the bottom sediments of the Dead Sea was much slower and the asphalt solidified on the lake bottom. The release of asphalt to the surface became much more sporadic, and may have resulted in part from earthquakes. Thus, future asphalt prospecting in the Dead Sea area should be conducted along the boundaries of diapirs or their associated faults.

  17. Sea salt

    OpenAIRE

    Galvis-Sánchez, Andrea C.; Lopes, João Almeida; Delgadillo, Ivone; Rangel, António O. S. S.

    2013-01-01

    The geographical indication (GI) status links a product with the territory and with the biodiversity involved. Besides, the specific knowledge and cultural practices of a human group that permit transforming a resource into a useful good is protected under a GI designation. Traditional sea salt is a hand-harvested product originating exclusively from salt marshes from specific geographical regions. Once salt is harvested, no washing, artificial drying or addition of anti-caking agents are all...

  18. Self-Averaging Expectation Propagation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cakmak, Burak; Opper, Manfred; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    We investigate the problem of approximate inference using Expectation Propagation (EP) for large systems under some statistical assumptions. Our approach tries to overcome the numerical bottleneck of EP caused by the inversion of large matrices. Assuming that the measurement matrices are realizat...... on a signal recovery problem of compressed sensing and compare with standard EP....

  19. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  20. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  1. Primary expectations of secondary metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    My program examines the plant secondary metabolites (i.e. phenolics) important for human health, and which impart the organoleptic properties that are quality indicators for fresh and processed foods. Consumer expectations such as appearance, taste, or texture influence their purchasing decisions; a...

  2. Metaphors As Storehouses of Expectation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beavis, Allan K.; Thomas, A. Ross

    1996-01-01

    Explores how metaphors are used to identify and store some expectations that structure schools' interactions and communications. Outlines a systems-theoretical view of schools derived from Niklas Luhmann's social theories. Illustrates how the metaphors identified in an earlier study provide material contexts for identifying and storing structures…

  3. Life Expectancy of Kibbutz Members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviatan, Uri; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Data are presented demonstrating that the life expectancy of kibbutz members--both men and women--is higher than that of the overall Jewish population in Israel. These data add to and support other research findings illustrating the more positive mental health and well-being found among kibbutz members than among other comparative populations.…

  4. Gompertz-Makeham Life Expectancies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, Trifon I.; Lenart, Adam; Vaupel, James W.

    We study the Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham mortality models. We prove that the resulting life expectancy can be expressed in terms of a hypergeometric function if the population is heterogeneous with gamma-distributed individual frailty, or an incomplete gamma function if the study population...

  5. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Eliza CROITORU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in daily extreme precipitations have been identified in many studies conducted at local, regional or global scales. In Romania, only little research on this issue has been done so far. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in daily extreme precipitations indices over a period of 53 years (1961-2013. Data sets of daily precipitation recorded in 34 weather stations were analyzed. Among them, three are located in the Carpathian Mountains area and four are located on the Black Sea Coast. The main goal was to find changes in extreme daily precipitation using a set of 13 indices adopted from the core indices developed by ETCCDMI with appropriate modifications to suit to the studied area. The series of the indices as well as their trends were generated using RClimDex software. The trends have been calculated using the linear mean square method. The findings are similar to those obtained at the global and European continental scales and the most noteworthy are: increasing trends dominate for the most of the indices, but only about 25% of them are statistically significant at α=0.05; decreasing trends are more specific to southern area of the country; decreasing trends of  R0.1, CDD and CWD dominate for the great majority of locations; the spatial distribution of the significant slopes in the area is extremely irregular.

  6. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.

    2015-04-10

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  7. Extremely deformable structures

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

  8. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu

    2015-03-09

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  9. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, C.; van der Wel, R. E. C.; Rotenberg, N.; Kuipers, L.; Krauss, T. F.; di Falco, A.; Fratalocchi, A.

    2015-04-01

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  10. Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    in general do not have the skill of picking up the severe deficit in rainfall for the Indian summer monsoon. The present author had written a simi- lar letter in January 2010 when the issue regarding the predictive behaviour of Indian monsoon in June... Communica- tions report5, brought out by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, various inventories, including those of GHG emissions, have been developed. Similarly, adaptation practices need to be documented, which will serve...

  11. Extreme winds and sea-surges in climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, H.W. (Hendrik Willem) van den

    2005-01-01

    This thesis deals with the problem of how to estimate values of meteorological parameters that correspond to return periods that are considerably longer than the length of the observational data sets. The problem is approached by considering the output of weather-and climate models as

  12. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    and Hasse 1999; Wang and Swail 2001, 2002, 2006a; Woolf et al. 2002; Tsimplis et al. 2005; Weisse and Giinther 2007). Numerical wave;modeling exercises have confirmed this general picture, although at many locations studied trends are only weakly positive...). Sinclair and Watterson (1999) used the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere to examine changes in the frequency and strength of mid-latitude storms under a doubled...

  13. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  14. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Ethical issues and societal expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metlay, D.

    2010-01-01

    Daniel Metlay (NWTRB) declared that institutions had always recognised an ethical obligation to manage high- level radioactive waste in unprecedented ways. This obligation has not only endured, but has become more explicit and multidimensional and it now subsumed under a more general rubric of 'societal expectations'. D. Metlay directed attention toward the proceedings of previous RWMC-RF workshop ', which contains five essays, authored by Kjell Andersson, Andrew Blowers, Carl-Reinhold Braakenhielm, Francois Dermange, and Patricia Fleming, that are relevant to the question of ethical issues and societal expectations. D. Metlay observed that 'societal expectations' are hard to define and thus very hard to measure. They may vary considerably with time and from country to country. As an illustration he referred to an inquiry performed by a task group 30 years ago in a document entitled 'Proposed Goals for Radioactive Waste Management' (NUREG-0300) on behalf of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Conclusions from D. Metlay are that, for the most part, societal expectations in the United States appear to be quite stable over a period of more than 30 years. In two areas, however, there are clear differences in emphasis between expectations articulated in the last few years and those recorded in 1978. (1) While then there was emphasis on the operational reliability of organisations and institutions. In particular, much care was taken to discuss the inherent limitations on bureaucratic error-correction in the future. The focus is nowadays more on bureaucratic behaviours associated with carrying out decision-making processes in the present. (2) While there is current emphasis on the importance of trust, transparency, and accountability, the NRC document may cast some doubt on the reliability of a stepwise decision-making process. In the domain of radioactive waste management, error signals are notoriously unclear, and strong disagreements over objectives and value trade

  16. Statistics of Local Extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Bierbooms, W.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2003-01-01

    . A theoretical expression for the probability density function associated with local extremes of a stochasticprocess is presented. The expression is basically based on the lower four statistical moments and a bandwidth parameter. The theoretical expression is subsequently verified by comparison with simulated...

  17. Lower Extremity Paralysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glancy, D Luke; Subramaniam, Pramilla N; Rodriguez, Juan F

    2016-11-15

    Severe hypokalemia in the absence of other electrolyte abnormalities, the result of diarrhea, caused striking electrocardiographic changes, generalized weakness, flaccid paralysis of the lower extremities, and biochemical evidence of mild skeletal and cardiac rhabdomyolysis in a 33-year-old man. Repletion of potassium reversed all abnormalities in 24 hours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Hydrological extremes and security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. W. Kundzewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes – floods and droughts – have been on the rise. Hydrological extremes jeopardize human security and impact on societal livelihood and welfare. Security can be generally understood as freedom from threat and the ability of societies to maintain their independent identity and their functional integrity against forces of change. Several dimensions of security are reviewed in the context of hydrological extremes. The traditional interpretation of security, focused on the state military capabilities, has been replaced by a wider understanding, including economic, societal and environmental aspects that get increasing attention. Floods and droughts pose a burden and serious challenges to the state that is responsible for sustaining economic development, and societal and environmental security. The latter can be regarded as the maintenance of ecosystem services, on which a society depends. An important part of it is water security, which can be defined as the availability of an adequate quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies. Security concerns arise because, over large areas, hydrological extremes − floods and droughts − are becoming more frequent and more severe. In terms of dealing with water-related risks, climate change can increase uncertainties, which makes the state’s task to deliver security more difficult and more expensive. However, changes in population size and development, and level of protection, drive exposure to hydrological hazards.

  19. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth Page Navigation ▼ ACOG Pregnancy Book Patient Education FAQs Patient Education Pamphlets - Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 ... Labor and Birth (FAQ087) Tobacco, Alcohol, Drugs, and Pregnancy (FAQ170) Patient Education ... Committee Opinions Practice Bulletins Patient ...

  20. Extremity x-ray

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

  1. Injuries in extreme sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Lior; Pengas, Ioannis P; Mei-Dan, Omer

    2017-04-18

    Extreme sports (ES) are usually pursued in remote locations with little or no access to medical care with the athlete competing against oneself or the forces of nature. They involve high speed, height, real or perceived danger, a high level of physical exertion, spectacular stunts, and heightened risk element or death.Popularity for such sports has increased exponentially over the past two decades with dedicated TV channels, Internet sites, high-rating competitions, and high-profile sponsors drawing more participants.Recent data suggest that the risk and severity of injury in some ES is unexpectedly high. Medical personnel treating the ES athlete need to be aware there are numerous differences which must be appreciated between the common traditional sports and this newly developing area. These relate to the temperament of the athletes themselves, the particular epidemiology of injury, the initial management following injury, treatment decisions, and rehabilitation.The management of the injured extreme sports athlete is a challenge to surgeons and sports physicians. Appropriate safety gear is essential for protection from severe or fatal injuries as the margins for error in these sports are small.The purpose of this review is to provide an epidemiologic overview of common injuries affecting the extreme athletes through a focus on a few of the most popular and exciting extreme sports.

  2. Extremism and Disability Chic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffman, James M.; Badar, Jeanmarie

    2018-01-01

    The word chic refers to something fashionable or stylish. Chic varies for individuals and groups and with time and place. Something chic may have desirable or undesirable long-term consequences. Disability and extremism are also changeable concepts, depending on comparison to social norms. People with disabilities should have the option of being…

  3. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    very high latitudes where there is less moisture. 174J.p. Verdou, Extremes climatiques mondiales" [World Climatic- - E~tremes], France. Meteorologie...air pressure less than 92 kilopascals (27.17 inches) and winds over 249 kilometers per hour (155 miles per hour), and they cause " catastrophic " damage

  4. Extremity perfusion for sarcoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Harald Joan

    2008-01-01

    For more than 50 years, the technique of extremity perfusion has been explored in the limb salvage treatment of local, recurrent, and multifocal sarcomas. The "discovery" of tumor necrosis factor-or. in combination with melphalan was a real breakthrough in the treatment of primarily irresectable

  5. Using expected localization in segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shemlon, Stephen; Cho, Kyugon; Dunn, Stanley M.

    1992-02-01

    Segmentation paradigms are based on manipulating some distinguishing characteristic of the various objects that are present in the image being analyzed. These characteristics are often well known for given objects in a given class of images. The intelligent use of this knowledge can simplify the segmentation process without necessarily targeting it for a particular class of images. This paper outlines a segmentation paradigm that uses models which characterize the expected presentation of possible image objects. It explains how knowledge of the expected localization of certain objects can be used to refine the segmentation process, to optimize object extraction and identification, and to learn some invariant characteristics of the objects and their surroundings, for use by high level intelligent processes. We present results of experiments with MRI human brain scans, dental radiographs, and transmission electron microscope (TEM) serial sections of hemocytes (insect blood cells).

  6. Extrapolative Expectations and Market Stability.

    OpenAIRE

    Vega-Redondo, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    An auctioneer model of market adjustment is proposed which, unlike the standard formulation, has prices react to extrapolated (rather than prevailing) excess demands. If expectations are sufficiently sensitive to current rates of change, every regular market equilibrium is shown to be locally stable. The model can be regarded as providing an institutional interpretation to Newton-like methods of market adjustment that, as the Newton process itself, ensure stability of every regular zero of a ...

  7. Smooth paths of conditional expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Andruchow, Esteban; Larotonda, Gabriel

    2010-01-01

    Let A be a von Neumann algebra with a finite trace $\\tau$, represented in $H=L^2(A,\\tau)$, and let $B_t\\subset A$ be sub-algebras, for $t$ in an interval $I$. Let $E_t:A\\to B_t$ be the unique $\\tau$-preserving conditional expectation. We say that the path $t\\mapsto E_t$ is smooth if for every $a\\in A$ and $v \\in H$, the map $$ I\

  8. FRANCHISE EXPECTATIONS: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Raissa Kaziyeva

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to provide a critical review of franchising development in Kazakhstan by focusing on the relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. We have conducted extensive research and communicated with lots of potential and existing Kazakhstani franchisors and franchisees, operating since 2003. Our findings show that the process of signing franchising agreements is quite challenging in Kazakhstan.  Thorough investigation of the differences between expectations ...

  9. Rising Expectations, Social Unrest & Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Natarajan

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between peace and development holds the key to effective strategies for addressing the roots of social unrest. Rising expectations are the principal driving force for social development. However, the faster and higher aspirations rise, the greater the gap between expectations and reality. That gap promotes a sense of frustration, depravation and aggression leading to social unrest and violence. The opposite is also true: rising economic opportunity can mitigate or eliminate social unrest. The remarkable renunciation of armed struggle by the IRA in North Ireland in mid - 2005 appears inexplicable until the impact of rising incomes and expanding employment opportunities in the Republic of Ireland is also taken into account. A similar approach can be applied to address the problems of violence and social unrest in Kashmir and Palestine. Here too apparently intractable conflicts will lend themselves to be addressed economically. India's recent efforts to provide guaranteed employment to its rural poor are part of a strategy to stem the rising tide of social unrest in impoverished areas resulting from rising expectations among the poor.

  10. Metastable neural dynamics mediates expectation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzucato, Luca; La Camera, Giancarlo; Fontanini, Alfredo

    Sensory stimuli are processed faster when their presentation is expected compared to when they come as a surprise. We previously showed that, in multiple single-unit recordings from alert rat gustatory cortex, taste stimuli can be decoded faster from neural activity if preceded by a stimulus-predicting cue. However, the specific computational process mediating this anticipatory neural activity is unknown. Here, we propose a biologically plausible model based on a recurrent network of spiking neurons with clustered architecture. In the absence of stimulation, the model neural activity unfolds through sequences of metastable states, each state being a population vector of firing rates. We modeled taste stimuli and cue (the same for all stimuli) as two inputs targeting subsets of excitatory neurons. As observed in experiment, stimuli evoked specific state sequences, characterized in terms of `coding states', i.e., states occurring significantly more often for a particular stimulus. When stimulus presentation is preceded by a cue, coding states show a faster and more reliable onset, and expected stimuli can be decoded more quickly than unexpected ones. This anticipatory effect is unrelated to changes of firing rates in stimulus-selective neurons and is absent in homogeneous balanced networks, suggesting that a clustered organization is necessary to mediate the expectation of relevant events. Our results demonstrate a novel mechanism for speeding up sensory coding in cortical circuits. NIDCD K25-DC013557 (LM); NIDCD R01-DC010389 (AF); NSF IIS-1161852 (GL).

  11. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  12. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  13. Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Steinke, Michael; McGenity, Terry; Loreto, Francesco

    2014-08-01

    This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Pollution in the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinheimer, G

    1998-07-01

    The Baltic Sea is almost totally surrounded by land and therefore more endangered by pollution than other marine areas. The sources of marine pollution are municipal and industrial waste inputs directly into the sea or via rivers, and atmospheric inputs mainly from traffic and agriculture. The increase of inorganic plant nutrients (NH3, NOx, PO4) caused eutrophication and consequent oxygen depletion in coastal bottom waters as well as in the depths of the open sea. In the anoxic sediments, hydrogen sulfide can be produced by protein-decomposing and sulfate-reducing bacteria. The bottom fauna will be destroyed and only H2S tolerant microorganisms can survive. Originating from cellulose manufacturing and from paper mills, large amounts of poisonous chlorinated compounds contaminated the coastal waters of Sweden and Finland until the 1980s. Most of this material is still present in sediments of the central Baltic Sea and can be resuspended by near bottom currents. To reduce pollution and improve the situation in the Baltic Sea, the surrounding countries organized the Helsinki Convention, which came into force on 3.5.1980. The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) founded in 1974 acts as coordinator and is responsible for the enforcement of the Baltic monitoring program and international research projects. The activities of HELCOM have led to the reduction of dangerous pollutants which in turn has caused the regeneration of flora and fauna in some areas. Further improvements can be expected.

  15. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  16. Wave extreme characterization using self-organizing maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbariol, Francesco; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Scotton, Carlotta; Benetazzo, Alvise; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

    2016-03-01

    The self-organizing map (SOM) technique is considered and extended to assess the extremes of a multivariate sea wave climate at a site. The main purpose is to obtain a more complete representation of the sea states, including the most severe states that otherwise would be missed by a SOM. Indeed, it is commonly recognized, and herein confirmed, that a SOM is a good regressor of a sample if the frequency of events is high (e.g., for low/moderate sea states), while a SOM fails if the frequency is low (e.g., for the most severe sea states). Therefore, we have considered a trivariate wave climate (composed by significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction) collected continuously at the Acqua Alta oceanographic tower (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) during the period 1979-2008. Three different strategies derived by SOM have been tested in order to capture the most extreme events. The first contemplates a pre-processing of the input data set aimed at reducing redundancies; the second, based on the post-processing of SOM outputs, consists in a two-step SOM where the first step is applied to the original data set, and the second step is applied on the events exceeding a given threshold. A complete graphical representation of the outcomes of a two-step SOM is proposed. Results suggest that the post-processing strategy is more effective than the pre-processing one in order to represent the wave climate extremes. An application of the proposed two-step approach is also provided, showing that a proper representation of the extreme wave climate leads to enhanced quantification of, for instance, the alongshore component of the wave energy flux in shallow water. Finally, the third strategy focuses on the peaks of the storms.

  17. Relationships between teleconnection patterns and Turkish climatic extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltacı, H.; Akkoyunlu, B. O.; Tayanç, M.

    2017-12-01

    This is a study on the effects of teleconnection patterns (TPs) on the extremes of temperature and precipitation over Turkey. Relationships between five teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns, and 11 climate extreme indices were studied by using 94 uniformly distributed meteorological stations over Turkey for the period of 1965-2014. Analyzing strong positive and negative temperature deviations from the 50-year-winter means shows that such extremes can often be explained by using AO and EAWR patterns. During the negative AO, generally more warm days occur over Black Sea (r = -0.6) and Aegean regions (r = -0.7). This phase of AO also generates above-normal precipitation in the western parts of the Anatolian Peninsula (r around - 0.5). Winter-time negative AO is mainly associated with the presence of a deepened Genoa cyclone over Italy that can transport warm and moist air mass from Mediterranean Sea towards Turkey by strong westerly winds. In contrast, positive EAWR is mainly connected to cold nights over Black Sea (r = 0.6) and Aegean regions (r = 0.6) together with positive precipitation anomalies at the seaside stations of the eastern Black Sea region. On the other hand, when positive EAWR prevails, Azores high-pressure center expands towards continental Europe bringing cold air by strong northerly winds together with higher moisture transport from the Black Sea. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

  18. Expectations from experts in ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermange, F.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to try to answer the three questions raised by Claudio Pescatore. 1. When the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management requires that we do not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their needs and aspirations, what is meant by 'needs and aspirations'? 2. What are regulators expected to do to identify the needs and aspirations of the relevant future generations, and to provide convincing regulatory assurance that they will be protected? 3. How many generations ahead constitute 'future generations' for the purpose of implementing sustainable development? (author)

  19. The SEA complex – the beginning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dokudovskaya S. S.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The presence of distinctive internal membrane compartments, dynamically connected via selective transport pathways, is a hallmark of eukaryotic cells. Many of the proteins required for formation and maintenance of these compartments share an evolutionary history. We have recently identified a new conserved protein complex – the SEA complex – that possesses proteins with structural characteristics similar to the membrane coating complexes such as the nuclear pore complex (NPC, the COPII vesicle coating complex and HOPS/CORVET tethering complexes. The SEA complex in yeast is dynamically associated to the vacuole. The data on the function of the SEA complex remain extremely limited. Here we will discuss a possible role of the SEA complex based on the data from genetic assays and a number of functional studies in both yeast and other eukaryotes.

  20. Deficiently extremal Gorenstein algebras

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Thus, R/I is a Cohen–. Macaulay algebra of Type 1, and hence R/I is Gorenstein. In view of Theorem 2.1, R/I is a nearly (or 1-deficient) extremal Gorenstein algebra. We now shall describe a result of Bruns and Hibi [1] which characterizes the Stanley–. Reisner rings having 2-pure but not 2-linear resolutions. Theorem 2.3.

  1. Religious Extremism in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    boarding and lodging in madrasas (religious schools).9 Some ROs also organize weddings and arrange for burials for the poor.10 Moreover, a few ROs...this will explain why 28 Sandler, “New Frontiers of Terrorism.” 29 Stephen Sharot, “Beyond Christianity : A Critique of the Rational Choice Theory...Religion and Terrorism: Christian Fundamentalism and Extremism,” Terrorism and Political Violence 22, no.3 (2010): 438‒456, http://dx.doi.org

  2. Imaging Under Extreme Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-28

    have successfully reported, using direct imaging, the atomic-scale of molecular nanocrystals , the phase transition in metal-insulator transitions...the embryonic crystallization following extreme melting, the discovery of nanogating in quasi-1D materials, and the nature of interface electric ...are numerous, and we have successfully reported, using direct imaging, the atomic-scale of molecular nanocrystals , the phase transition in metal

  3. Extremes in nature

    CERN Document Server

    Salvadori, Gianfausto; Kottegoda, Nathabandu T

    2007-01-01

    This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.

  4. Expected Effects of Offshore Wind Farms on Mediterranean Marine Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Bray

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Current climate policy and issues of energy security mean wind farms are being built at an increasing rate to meet energy demand. As wind farm development is very likely in the Mediterranean Sea, we provide an assessment of the offshore wind potential and identify expected biological effects of such developments in the region. We break new ground here by identifying potential offshore wind farm (OWF “hotspots” in the Mediterranean. Using lessons learned in Northern Europe, and small-scale experiments in the Mediterranean, we identify sensitive species and habitats that will likely be influenced by OWFs in both these hotspot areas and at a basin level. This information will be valuable to guide policy governing OWF development and will inform the industry as and when environmental impact assessments are required for the Mediterranean Sea.

  5. On extreme geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cid Consuelo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

  6. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung

    2014-01-01

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety

  7. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  8. Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.

    2010-12-01

    Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning

  9. Great expectations: large wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, E.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on wind turbine product development, and traces the background to wind turbines from the first generation 1.5 MW machines in 1995-6, plans for the second generation 3-5 MW class turbines to meet the expected boom in offshore wind projects, to the anticipated installation of a 4.5 MW turbine, and offshore wind projects planned for 2000-2002. The switch by the market leader Vestas to variable speed operation in 2000, the new product development and marketing strategy taken by the German Pro + Pro consultancy in their design of a 1.5 MW variable speed pitch control concept, the possible limiting of the size of turbines due to logistical difficulties, opportunities offered by air ships for large turbines, and the commissioning of offshore wind farms are discussed. Details of some 2-5 MW offshore wind turbine design specifications are tabulated

  10. [Manufactured baby food: safety expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, L; Van Egroo, L-D; Galesne, N

    2010-12-01

    Food safety is a concern for parents of infants, and healthcare professionals are often questioned by them about this topic. Baby food European regulation ensures high levels of safety and is more rigorous than common food regulation. Maximal limit for pesticides in baby food demonstrates the high level of requirements. This limit must be below the 10 ppb detection threshold, whatever the chemical used. Other contaminants such as nitrates are also the subject of greater expectations in baby food. Food safety risks control needs a specific know-how that baby food manufacturers have acquired and experienced, more particularly by working with producers of high quality raw material. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Motor activity improves temporal expectancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Fautrelle

    Full Text Available Certain brain areas involved in interval timing are also important in motor activity. This raises the possibility that motor activity might influence interval timing. To test this hypothesis, we assessed interval timing in healthy adults following different types of training. The pre- and post-training tasks consisted of a button press in response to the presentation of a rhythmic visual stimulus. Alterations in temporal expectancy were evaluated by measuring response times. Training consisted of responding to the visual presentation of regularly appearing stimuli by either: (1 pointing with a whole-body movement, (2 pointing only with the arm, (3 imagining pointing with a whole-body movement, (4 simply watching the stimulus presentation, (5 pointing with a whole-body movement in response to a target that appeared at irregular intervals (6 reading a newspaper. Participants performing a motor activity in response to the regular target showed significant improvements in judgment times compared to individuals with no associated motor activity. Individuals who only imagined pointing with a whole-body movement also showed significant improvements. No improvements were observed in the group that trained with a motor response to an irregular stimulus, hence eliminating the explanation that the improved temporal expectations of the other motor training groups was purely due to an improved motor capacity to press the response button. All groups performed a secondary task equally well, hence indicating that our results could not simply be attributed to differences in attention between the groups. Our results show that motor activity, even when it does not play a causal or corrective role, can lead to improved interval timing judgments.

  12. Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der

    2016-09-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

  13. Extreme and near-extreme climate change data in relation to building and plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, D.H.C.; Levermore, G.; Laycock, P.J.; Page, J.; Jones, P.; Lister, D.

    2003-01-01

    Buildings and plant are designed utilizing near-extreme weather data. The present data used are briefly discussed, including manual near-extreme percentiles for manual design and hourly data for simulation on a PC (test reference years and design summer years, and near-extreme periods). However, with climate change occurring, designs based on current data will produce uncomfortable summer thermal conditions within and around buildings in the future. This expected change is especially relevant now, as buildings have to last typically from 50 to 100 years. Climate change data for the future are needed to assess the performance of buildings and plant in the future. The Hadley Centre climate change models could provide such data. In this paper analysis of extreme data from one model, the HadCM3 model (south-east England grid box) with an appropriate climate change scenario, are considered in relation to their use for design assessment. Dry bulb temperature and solar irradiance extreme values are considered in this paper. The expected trend in both minimum and maximum temperature is for both to increase with time, but the maxima are found to rise faster than the minima. There are two factors influencing the solar radiation estimates, the basic clarity of the atmosphere and the seasonal amount of cloud. The latter is predicted to increase slightly in winter and decrease slightly in summer. The variations in the predicted short-wave radiation values reflect the expected combined impacts of these two factors. The implications of these results are briefly discussed. (Author)

  14. Sea level change: a philosophical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinfelder, R.; Seyfried, H.

    1993-07-01

    , land vegetation and carbonate platforms are major CO2 buffers which may both take up and release CO2. CO2 can be released from the ocean due to changes in the pCO2 caused by growth of coral reefs and by uptake of CO2-rich freshwater from karst provinces. Efficient sinks of CO2 are the weathering products of silicate rocks; long-term sinks are organic deposits caused by regional anoxic events which preferrably develop during sea level rises and highstands; and coal-bearing strata. Deposition of limestone also removes CO2 from the atmospheric-hydrospheric cycle at a long term. Biotic crises are often related to either sea-level lows or sea-level highs. Long-term sea-level lows, characteristic of glacial periods, indicate cooling as major cause of extinction. During verly long-lasting greenhouse episodes the sea level is very high, climate and circulation systems are stable and biotic crises often develop as a consequence of oxygen depletion. On land, niche-splitting, complex food web structures and general overspecialization of biota will occur. Whether the crisis is caused by a single anoxic event (e.g. in the Late Devonian) or a disturbance by an asteroid impact (e.g. the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary), it will only trigger total collapse of an ecosystem if a large part of it was already in decline. The regulatory mechanisms and buffers are thermodynamically extremely efficient if they are given sufficient time in which to deploy their power. However, after major catastrophes the re-establishment of successful ecosystems will take millions of years. The present rate of sea level and associated temperature rise is much too fast to be compensated and buffered by the network of natural controls. It is likely that the transitional time towards a new steady state will be an extremely variable and chaotic episode of unpredictable duration.

  15. The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood

  16. Antenatal management of the expectant mother and extreme preterm infant at the limits of viability.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, R

    2012-01-31

    We explored the opinions of healthcare providers on the antenatal management and outcome of preterm delivery at less than 28 weeks gestation. An anonymous postal questionnaire was sent to health care providers. The response rate was 55% (74% Obstetrician, 70% neonatologist). Twenty four weeks is the limit at which most would advocate intervention. At 23 weeks 67% of neonatologists advocate antenatal steroids. 50% of all health care providers advocate cardiotocographic monitoring at 24 weeks gestation. Written information on survival and long-term outcome is provided by 8% of the respondents. Neonatologists (50%) were more likely than obstetrician (40%) to advocate caesarean section at 25 weeks. We conclude that 24 weeks is the limit at which most would advocate intervention. Significant variation exists both between and within each health care group at less than 25 weeks. Establishment and provision of national outcome data may aid decision making at the limits of viability.

  17. Cytotoxic and apoptotic evaluations of marine bacteria isolated from brine-seawater interface of the Red Sea.

    KAUST Repository

    Sagar, Sunil

    2013-02-06

    High salinity and temperature combined with presence of heavy metals and low oxygen renders deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea as one of the most extreme environments on Earth. The ability to adapt and survive in these extreme environments makes inhabiting bacteria interesting candidates for the search of novel bioactive molecules.

  18. Extreme Programming Pocket Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Chromatic

    2003-01-01

    Extreme Programming (XP) is a radical new approach to software development that has been accepted quickly because its core practices--the need for constant testing, programming in pairs, inviting customer input, and the communal ownership of code--resonate with developers everywhere. Although many developers feel that XP is rooted in commonsense, its vastly different approach can bring challenges, frustrations, and constant demands on your patience. Unless you've got unlimited time (and who does these days?), you can't always stop to thumb through hundreds of pages to find the piece of info

  19. Metagenomics of extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, D A; Ramond, J-B; Makhalanyane, T P; De Maayer, P

    2015-06-01

    Whether they are exposed to extremes of heat or cold, or buried deep beneath the Earth's surface, microorganisms have an uncanny ability to survive under these conditions. This ability to survive has fascinated scientists for nearly a century, but the recent development of metagenomics and 'omics' tools has allowed us to make huge leaps in understanding the remarkable complexity and versatility of extremophile communities. Here, in the context of the recently developed metagenomic tools, we discuss recent research on the community composition, adaptive strategies and biological functions of extremophiles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Training Simulator for Extreme Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Nazir, Salman; Manca, Davide; Komulainen, Tiina M.; Øvergård, Kjell Ivar

    2015-01-01

    - Current technological advancements have enabled the achievement of excellence in design of training simulators. This work highlights the challenges faced by operators in extreme environments and harsh conditions in an attempt to underpin the necessary features of extreme training simulators.

  1. Training Simulator for Extreme Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Nazir, Salman; Manca, Davide; Komulainen, Tiina M.; Øvergård, Kjell Ivar

    2015-01-01

    Current technological advancements have enabled the achievement of excellence in design of training simulators. This work highlights the challenges faced by operators in extreme environments and harsh conditions in an attempt to underpin the necessary features of extreme training simulators.

  2. Microbiology of the Red Sea (and other) deep-sea anoxic brine lakes

    KAUST Repository

    Antunes, Andre

    2011-05-30

    Summary: The Red Sea harbours approximately 25 deep-sea anoxic brine pools. They constitute extremely unique and complex habitats with the conjugation of several extreme physicochemical parameters rendering them some of the most inhospitable environments on Earth. After 50 years of research mostly driven by chemists, geophysicists and geologists, the microbiology of the brines has been receiving increased interest in the last decade. Recent molecular and cultivation-based studies have provided us with a first glimpse on the enormous biodiversity of the local microbial communities, the identification of several new taxonomic groups, and the isolation of novel extremophiles that thrive in these environments. This review presents a general overview of these unusual biotopes and compares them with other similar environments in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, with a focus on their microbial ecology. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Thermal Implications for Extreme Fast Charge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-14

    Present-day thermal management systems for battery electric vehicles are inadequate in limiting the maximum temperature rise of the battery during extreme fast charging. If the battery thermal management system is not designed correctly, the temperature of the cells could reach abuse temperatures and potentially send the cells into thermal runaway. Furthermore, the cell and battery interconnect design needs to be improved to meet the lifetime expectations of the consumer. Each of these aspects is explored and addressed as well as outlining where the heat is generated in a cell, the efficiencies of power and energy cells, and what type of battery thermal management solutions are available in today's market. Thermal management is not a limiting condition with regard to extreme fast charging, but many factors need to be addressed especially for future high specific energy density cells to meet U.S. Department of Energy cost and volume goals.

  4. The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa

    2015-05-15

    Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. The Damage To The Armour Layer Due To Extreme Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oztunali Ozbahceci, Berguzar; Ergin, Aysen; Takayama, Tomotsuka

    2010-05-01

    The sea waves are not regular but random and chaotic. In order to understand this randomness, it is common to make individual wave analysis in time domain or spectral analysis in frequency domain. Characteristic wave heights like Hmax, H%2,H1-10, H1-3, Hmean are obtained through individual wave analysis in time domain. These characteristic wave heights are important because they are used in the design of different type of coastal structures. It is common to use significant wave height, H1-3,for the design of rubble mound structures. Therefore, only spectrally derived or zero-crossing significant wave height is usually reported for the rubble mound breakwaters without any information on larger waves. However, even the values of H1-3are similar; some train of irregular waves may exhibit a large fluctuation of instantaneous wave energy, while another train may not show such a fluctuation (Goda, 1998). Moreover, freak or rogue wave, simply defined as the wave exceeding at least twice the significant wave height may also occur. Those larger waves were called as extreme waves in this study and the effect of extreme waves on the damage to the armour layer of rubble mound breakwaters was investigated by means of hydraulic model experiment. Rock armored rubble mound breakwater model with 1:1.5 slope was constructed in the wave channel of Hydraulics Laboratory of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto University, Japan. The model was consisted of a permeable core layer, a filter and armour layer with two stones thicknesses. Size of stones were same for both of the slopes as Dn50(armour)=0.034m, Dn50(filter)=0.021m and Dn50(core)=0.0148m for armour, filter and core layers, respectively. Time series which are approximately equal to 1000 waves, with similar significant wave height but different extreme wave height cases were generated. In order to generate necessary time series in the wave channel, they were firstly computed by numerically. For the numerical

  6. Energy Infrastructure and Extreme Events (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakimoto, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The country's energy infrastructure is sensitive to the environment, especially extreme events. Increasing global temperatures, intense storms, and space weather have the potential to disrupt energy production and transport. It can also provide new opportunities as illustrated by the opening of the Northwest Passage. The following provides an overview of some of the high impacts of major geophysical events on energy production and transport. Future predictions of hurricanes suggest that we can expect fewer storms but they will be associated with stronger winds and more precipitation. The winds and storm surge accompanying hurricane landfall along the Gulf States has had a major impact on the coastal energy infrastructure and the oil/natural gas platforms. The impact of these surges will increase with predicted sea level rise. Hurricane Katrina caused damage to crude oil pipelines and refineries that reduced oil production by 19% for the year. The disruption that can occur is not necessarily linked with the maximum winds of the tropical storm as recently shown by Hurricane Sandy which was classified as a ';post-tropical cyclone' during landfall. Another intense circulation, the tornado, can also cause power outages and network breaks from high winds that can topple power poles or damage power lines from fallen trees. Fortunately, the Moore tornado, rated EF5, did not have a major impact on the oil and gas infrastructure in Oklahoma. The impact of earthquakes and tsunamis on energy was illustrated in Japan in 2011 with the shutdown of the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Other studies have suggested that there are areas in the United States where the energy services are highly vulnerable to major earthquakes that would disrupt electrical and gas networks for extended periods of time. Seismic upgrades to the energy infrastructure would help mitigate the impact. In 1859, a coronal mass ejection triggered a geomagnetic storm that disrupted communication wires around the world

  7. Zooplankton at deep Red Sea brine pools

    KAUST Repository

    Kaartvedt, Stein

    2016-03-02

    The deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea comprise unique, complex and extreme habitats. These environments are too harsh for metazoans, while the brine–seawater interface harbors dense microbial populations. We investigated the adjacent pelagic fauna at two brine pools using net tows, video records from a remotely operated vehicle and submerged echosounders. Waters just above the brine pool of Atlantis II Deep (2000 m depth) appeared depleted of macrofauna. In contrast, the fauna appeared to be enriched at the Kebrit Deep brine–seawater interface (1466 m).

  8. Recent Arctic sea level variations from satellites

    OpenAIRE

    Ole Baltazar Andersen; Gaia ePiccioni

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher...

  9. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse

  10. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

    2018-01-01

    On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution

  11. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  12. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  13. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  14. Smoking Outcome Expectancies among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Thomas H.; Baker, Timothy B.

    Alcohol expectancies have been found to predict later onset of drinking among adolescents. This study examined whether the relationship between level of alcohol use and expectancies is paralleled with cigarette smoking, and attempted to identify the content of smoking expectancies. An instrument to measure the subjective expected utility of…

  15. Extremely Low Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures Due to Thunderstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record-holders for each satellite. The lowest AMSR-E 36.5 GHz brightness temperatures associated with deep convection have been in Argentina; the lowest 89.0 GHz brightness temperatures were from Typhoon Bolaven in the Philippine Sea. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. The study is largely motivated by the new GMI sensor on the Global Precipitation Mission core satellite, launched in February 2014, with its high resolution expected to reveal unprecedented low brightness temperatures when extreme events are encountered.

  16. Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-15

    Final Technical Report: "Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments" PI: Stephen Vavrus Nelson Institute Center for Climatic ...cyclones and identify changes in the characteristics of these storms caused by greenhouse-forced climate change to present. OBJECTIVES These goals...emerge in the interior Arctic Ocean, especially over regions where sea ice loss exposes open water. However, this change is not effected by the

  17. To the limit of extreme malnutrition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frølich, Jacob; Buskbjerg, Camilla Viola; Støving, Rene K

    2016-01-01

    , corresponding to BMI 12 to 13 kg/m(2) in adults. Thus, many years of adaptation in adolescent-onset anorexia nervosa, supported by supplements of vitamins and treatment of intercurrent diseases, may allow survival at a much lower BMI. However, in the literature only a few cases of survival in patients with BMI......Extreme malnutrition with body mass index (BMI) as low as 10 kg/m(2) is not uncommon in anorexia nervosa, with survival enabled through complex metabolic adaptations. In contrast, outcomes from hunger strikes and famines are usually fatal after weight loss to about 40% below expected body weight...

  18. Small-scale stratigraphy in a large ramp delta: recent and Holocene sedimentation in de the Volga delta, Caspian Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, I.; Kroonenberg, S.B.; Veldkamp, A.; Groenesteijn, K.; Rusakov, G.V.; Svitoch, A.A.

    2003-01-01

    The Volga delta differs from all other major deltas in the world by its extremely gentle onshore and offshore gradient (similar to 5 cm/km) and by being affected by the rapid sea-level changes of the Caspian Sea, at rates up to a hundred times the global sea-level rise. This paper reports (1) the

  19. Quantification of sea ice production at coastal polynyas in the southern Weddell Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stulic, Lukrecia; Timmermann, Ralph; Zentek, Rolf; Heinemann, Günther

    2017-04-01

    Sea ice production and associated High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) formation in the southern Weddell Sea is an important driver for the global thermohaline ocean circulation and determines the properties of shelf water inflow that fuels ice shelf basal melting. In the southern Weddell Sea, coastal polynyas cover 1% of the area, but contribute about 10% to the total winter sea ice production. This project aims to improve estimates of the sea ice production and HSSW formation in the southern Weddell Sea coastal polynyas by a synergy of numerical simulations and remote sensing data. Sea ice-ocean simulations are performed with the Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) with a horizontal resolution close to the Rossby radius over the whole Weddell Sea to better represent eddy dynamics. In order to asses sensitivity of polynya characteristics and HSSW formation rates to the atmospheric forcing, FESOM is forced with different reanalysis data (ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR). Mean sea ice growth for the simulated period (1979-2012) is lower and more localized along the coastline/ice shelf front in the NCEP-CFSR run. Differences may be attributed to the colder air temperatures and stronger offshore winds in ERA-Interim forcing. FESOM will be forced with output from the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to further investigate sensitivity with respect to different atmospheric forcing. The best and most realistic ice production and HSSW formation estimates are expected to be obtained by assimilation of thin ice thickness data derived from MODIS retrievals into FESOM. This will lead to a high resolution data set of sea ice coverage and ice thickness fields that can be used as reference data set for other sea ice models and as an input for high-resolution atmospheric models.

  20. Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

    2017-01-01

    Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor

  1. Distribution and activity of petroleum hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruns, K.; Dahlmann, G.; Gunkel, W.

    1993-01-01

    Data were collected in 1988 and 1989 on the distribution and activity of petroleum hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Crude oil degrading bacteria and the number of bacteria which in particular degrade naphthalene were quantified using a modified dilution method (MPN). Crude oil degrading bacteria were present in all of about 100 water samples, with as many as 10 3 ml -1 in some samples. Numbers of naphthalene degrading bacteria were at least tenfold lower. There is obviously a greater connection between this bacteria group and petroleum hydrocarbon (PHC) contamination than between the more nonspecific group of crude oil degrading bacteria and PHC contamination. Data from the North Sea show an extremely high abundance of hydrocarbon degrading bacteria, even in winter, while in the southern Baltic Sea low numbers of bacteria were found and slower crude oil degradation was observed. (orig.)

  2. A deep sea community at the Kebrit brine pool in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Vestheim, Hege

    2015-02-26

    Approximately 25 deep sea brine pools occur along the mid axis of the Red Sea. These hypersaline, anoxic, and acidic environments have previously been reported to host diverse microbial communities. We visited the Kebrit brine pool in April 2013 and found macrofauna present just above the brine–seawater interface (~1465 m). In particular, inactive sulfur chimneys had associated epifauna of sea anemones, sabellid type polychaetes, and hydroids, and infauna consisting of capitellid polychaetes, gastropods of the genus Laeviphitus (fam. Elachisinidae), and top snails of the family Cocculinidae. The deep Red Sea generally is regarded as extremely poor in benthos. We hypothesize that the periphery along the Kebrit holds increased biomass and biodiversity that are sustained by prokaryotes associated with the brine pool or co-occurring seeps.

  3. Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E; Feller, Ilka C; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C

    2017-05-10

    Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20-30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.

  4. Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delson Chikobvu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

  5. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  6. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  7. Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

    2017-12-01

    The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200

  8. Increase of extreme events in a warming world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Coumou, Dim

    2011-01-01

    We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of

  9. Core safety of Indian nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Fukushima accident was caused by extreme events, i.e., large earthquake followed by gigantic Tsunami which are not expected to hit India's coast considering the geography of India and historical records. Nevertheless, systematic investigations have been conducted by nuclear scientists in India to evaluate the safety ...

  10. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Powell, J.P.; Reinhard, S.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects

  11. Thermal biology of sea snakes and sea kraits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heatwole, Harold; Grech, Alana; Monahan, John F; King, Susan; Marsh, Helene

    2012-08-01

    Temperature probably had no direct effect on the evolution of sea kraits within their center of origin, a geologically stable thermal zone straddling the equator, but may have indirectly affected expansions and contractions in distributions beyond that zone through global fluctuations that caused alternation of higher and lower sea levels. The northern limit of the Laticauda colubrina complex seems to be the 20°C isotherm; in the south, the range does not reach that isotherm because there is no land (also a habitat requirement of sea kraits) within the zone of suitable temperature. The relationship of temperature to the pattern of geographic variation in morphology supports either the hypothesis of peripheral convergence or the developmental hypothesis but does not distinguish between them. Quadratic surfaces relating cumulative scores for coloration and morphological characters to global position showed a strong latitudinal component and an even stronger longitudinal one in which the direction of the latitudinal effect was reversed between east and west. A multivariate analysis revealed that while morphological characters vary significantly by location and climate when tested separately, when the influence of location on morphology is taken into account, no residual relationship between climate and morphology remains. Most marine snakes have mean upper temperature tolerances between 39°C and 40°C and operate at temperatures much nearer their upper thermal limits than their lower limits but still avoid deleterious extremes by diving from excessively hot water to deeper, cooler strata, and by surfacing when water is cold. At the surface in still water in sunlight, Pelamis can maintain its body temperature slightly above that of the water, but whether this is significant in nature is questionable. As temperature falls below 18-20°C, survival time is progressively reduced, accompanied by the successive occurrence of cessation of feeding, cessation of swimming, and

  12. E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project. Launch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyrolle, F.; Charmasson, S.; Masson, O.

    2005-01-01

    Due to the drastic decrease in artificial radioactivity levels from primary sources such as atmospheric fallout or industrial releases, radioactive storages constituted in the past within several environmental compartments act today as non negligible secondary sources. These delayed sources are particularly active during extreme weather or climatic events such as rainfalls or atmospheric deposits, floods, storms, etc...that may remove important mass, generate activity levels higher than the predicted ones from modeling based on mean transfer process, and produce in a couple of hours or days fluxes similar to those accrued over several month or years. Extreme aims at assessing the consequences on man and its environment of natural events that generate extreme radioactive stocks and/or fluxes within several environmental compartments (atmosphere, soils, rivers, coastal marine environment and deep sea areas). (authors)

  13. Analysis of WRF extreme daily precipitation over Alaska using self-organizing maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisan, Justin M.; Gutowski, William J.; Cassano, John J.; Cassano, Elizabeth N.; Seefeldt, Mark W.

    2016-07-01

    We analyze daily precipitation extremes from simulations of a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulations cover 19 years and use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) domain. We focus on Alaska because of its proximity to the Pacific and Arctic oceans; both provide large moisture fetch inland. Alaska's topography also has important impacts on orographically forced precipitation. We use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand circulation characteristics conducive for extreme precipitation events. The SOM algorithm employs an artificial neural network that uses an unsupervised training process, which results in finding general patterns of circulation behavior. The SOM is trained with mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Widespread extreme events, defined as at least 25 grid points experiencing 99th percentile precipitation, are examined using SOMs. Widespread extreme days are mapped onto the SOM of MSLP anomalies, indicating circulation patterns. SOMs aid in determining high-frequency nodes, and hence, circulations are conducive to extremes. Multiple circulation patterns are responsible for extreme days, which are differentiated by where extreme events occur in Alaska. Additionally, several meteorological fields are composited for nodes accessed by extreme and nonextreme events to determine specific conditions necessary for a widespread extreme event. Individual and adjacent node composites produce more physically reasonable circulations as opposed to composites of all extremes, which include multiple synoptic regimes. Temporal evolution of extreme events is also traced through SOM space. Thus, this analysis lays the groundwork for diagnosing differences in atmospheric circulations and their associated widespread, extreme precipitation events.

  14. Are BALQSOs extreme accretors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, M. J.; Wills, B. J.

    2002-12-01

    Broad Absorption Line (BAL) QSOs are QSOs with massive absorbing outflows up to 0.2c. Two hypothesis have been suggested in the past about the nature of BALQSOs: Every QSO might have BAL outflow with some covering factor. BALQSOs are those which happen to have outflow along our line of sight. BALQSOs have intrinsically different physical properties than non-BALQSOs. Based on BALQSO's optical emission properties and a large set of correlations linking many general QSO emission line and continuum properties, it has been suggested that BALQSOs might accrete at near Eddington limit with abundant of fuel supplies. With new BALQSO Hβ region spectroscopic observation conducted at UKIRT and re-analysis of literature data for low and high redshift non-BALQSOs, We confirm that BALQSOs have extreme Fe II and [O III] emission line properties. Using results derived from the latest QSO Hβ region reverberation mapping, we calculated Eddington ratios (˙ {M}/˙ {M}Edd) for our BAL and non-BALQSOs. The Fe II and [O III] strengths are strongly correlated with Eddington ratios. Those correlations link Eddington ratio to a large set of general QSO properties through the Boroson & Green Eigenvector 1. We find that BALQSOs have Eddington ratios close to 1. However, all high redshift, high luminosity QSOs have rather high Eddington ratios. We argue that this is a side effect from selecting the brightest objects. In fact, our high redshift sample might constitute BALQSO's high Eddington ratio orientation parent population.

  15. Extremely distributed media processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butera, William; Bove, V. Michael, Jr.; McBride, James

    2001-12-01

    The Object-Based Media Group at the MIT Media Laboratory is developing robust, self-organizing programming models for dense ensembles of ultra-miniaturized computing nodes which are deployed by the thousands in bulk fashion, e.g. embedded into building materials. While such systems potentially offer almost unlimited computation for multimedia purposes, the individual devices contain tiny amounts of memory, lack explicit addresses, have wireless communication ranges only in the range of millimeters to centimeters, and are expected to fail at high rates. An unorthodox approach to handling of multimedia data is required in order to achieve useful, reliable work in such an environment. We describe the hardware and software strategies, and demonstrate several examples showing the processing of images and sound in such a system.

  16. Instability growth rates of crossing sea states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laine-Pearson, F E

    2010-03-01

    Crossing sea states can occur during adverse weather conditions. The instability of such wave trains has been suggested as a possible mechanism for the formation of rogue (freak or extreme) waves. One model for crossing sea states is weakly nonlinear and finite-amplitude short-crested waves (SCWs) on deep water. SCWs are the resonant interaction of two wave systems each with a different direction of propagation. Recently, it has been shown that the stability of these wave interactions is closely associated with the stability of the oblique nonresonant interaction between two waves. The long-wave instability of such waves is considered here; SCWs are used as a benchmark. By using a mismatch of amplitudes, it is demonstrated that instability growth rates of two crossing waves can be larger than those given by SCWs. This indicates that only considering true resonant interactions can underestimate the contribution from unstable crossing sea states to the possible formation of rogue waves.

  17. Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, Cristina

    2005-01-01

    Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

  18. Of Hope, Fear and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Villy

    2011-01-01

    The study explores how gender and differences in preferences affect subjective expectations among a group of students.......The study explores how gender and differences in preferences affect subjective expectations among a group of students....

  19. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect During a Colonoscopy Prep. Sedation. Procedure. Post-Procedure. This new educational video for GI patients, produced by the ...

  20. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect During a Colonoscopy Prep. Sedation. Procedure. ... Center GI Health and Disease Recursos en Español What is a Gastroenterologist? Video and Audio Podcasts Digestive ...

  1. C-Section Recovery: What to Expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... also recovering from pregnancy. Here's what to expect: Vaginal discharge (lochia). Expect a bright red, heavy flow of ... your health care provider if you have heavy vaginal bleeding, discharge with a foul odor, or you have a ...

  2. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... reflect the current state-of-the-art scientific work and are based on the principles of evidence- ... Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect During a Colonoscopy Prep. Sedation. Procedure. ...

  3. Aral Sea basin: a sea dies, a sea also rises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, Michael H

    2007-06-01

    The thesis of this article is quite different from many other theses of papers, books, and articles on the Aral Sea. It is meant to purposely highlight the reality of the situation in Central Asia: the Aral Sea that was once a thriving body of water is no more. That sea is dead. What does exist in its place are the Aral seas: there are in essence three bodies of water, one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Little Aral), and two others which are still marginally connected, although they continue to decline in level (the Big Aral West and the Big Aral East). In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level. By 2006 the level had dropped by 23 m to 30 m above sea level. This was not a scenario generated by a computer model. It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life in a matter of a few decades, primarily as a result of human activities. Despite wishes and words to the contrary, it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Big Aral. It would also take a significant degree of sacrifice by people and governments in the region to restore the Big Aral to an acceptable level, given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a 10th of what it was several decades ago. Conferring World Heritage status to the Aral Sea(s) could spark restoration efforts for the Big Aral.

  4. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  5. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  6. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected...

  7. Master's degree studies: Expectations versus reality | Swanepoel ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this article, I discuss to what extent the expectations of government, universities as provider institutions, and students as clients are reconcilable regarding master's degree studies. I also consider the position of the lecturer, who is expected to produce whilst being caught between the expectations of these stakeholders.

  8. High Performance Expectations: Concept and causes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lotte Bøgh; Jacobsen, Christian Bøtcher

    2017-01-01

    High performance expectations (HPE) are central in public management because employees tend to contribute more when their leaders have high expectations to them. However, we know little about how leaders make it clear to employees that they have these high expectations. Building on transformation...

  9. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  10. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2015-01-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation are expected to be one of the most important impacts of climate change in cities. Urban floods are mainly caused by short duration extreme events. Hence, robust information on changes in extreme precipitation at high-temporal resolution is required for the design...

  11. Sea Lion Diet Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — California sea lions pup and breed at four of the nine Channel Islands in southern California. Since 1981, SWFSC MMTD has been conducting a diet study of sea lions...

  12. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  13. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  14. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  15. Arctic sea level change over the past 2 decades from GRACE gradiometry and multi-mission satellite altimetry

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, O. B.; Stenseng, L.; Sørensen, C. S.; Cheng, Y.; Knudsen, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic is still an extremely challenging region for theuse of remote sensing for sea level studies. Despite the availability of 20 years of altimetry, only very limited sea level observations exist in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation is changing and through development of tailored retrackers dealing with presence of sea ice within the radar footprint, we can now develop sea surface height and its variation in most of the Arctic Ocean. W...

  16. Study of community leaders in a nuclear host community: local issues, expectations and support and opposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronfman, B. H.

    1977-08-01

    A study of community leaders was undertaken in Hartsville, Tennessee, site of the TVA Hartsville Nuclear Power Plant currently under construction. Leaders were found to be extremely supportive of the plant and of TVA's efforts to mitigate impacts expected to result from construction. Like their citizen counterparts, leaders expect economic benefits and some growth-related disruption to occur as a result of the plant, while environmental impacts are seen as extremely unlikely to occur. Plant-related issues, such as housing availability and traffic congestion, dominate leaders' thinking about current issues. These issues are expected to continue to be important in the future, and new issues dealing with growth and planning, employment and taxation are expected to arise.

  17. Study of community leaders in a nuclear host community: local issues, expectations and support and opposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bronfman, B.H.

    1977-08-01

    A study of community leaders was undertaken in Hartsville, Tennessee, site of the TVA Hartsville Nuclear Power Plant currently under construction. Leaders were found to be extremely supportive of the plant and of TVA's efforts to mitigate impacts expected to result from construction. Like their citizen counterparts, leaders expect economic benefits and some growth-related disruption to occur as a result of the plant, while environmental impacts are seen as extremely unlikely to occur. Plant-related issues, such as housing availability and traffic congestion, dominate leaders' thinking about current issues. These issues are expected to continue to be important in the future, and new issues dealing with growth and planning, employment and taxation are expected to arise

  18. The North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, K.M.; Westley, K.; Erkens, G.; Hijma, M.P.; Weerts, H.J.T.

    Chapter 7 in the 'SPLASHCOS Taphonomy book', on the landscape-archaeological inventory of the North Sea as a regional sea (covering British, Dutch, Belgian, German and Danish sectors of the southern and central North Sea). Abstract: This chapter gives a general overview of knowledge regarding the

  19. Oceanography of marginal seas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    The North Indian Ocean consists of three marginal seas; The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea in the west and the Andaman Sea in the east. Oceanographic features of these semi-enclosed basins have been discussed in this article. While circulation...

  20. Impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring (gouging) event, Canadian Beaufort shelf

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blasco, Steve [Geological Survey of Canada, Dartmouth (Canada); Carr, Erin; Campbell, Patrick [Canadian Seabed Research Ltd., Porters Lake (Canada); Shearer, Jim [Shearer Consulting, Ottawa (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    A knowledge of the presence of scours, their dimensions and their return frequencies is highly important in the development of hydrocarbon offshore structures. Mapping surveys have identified 290 extreme scour events across the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This paper investigated the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring events in the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This study used the NEWBASE database of new ice scours to perform an analysis of the scours appearance mechanisms. The geotechnical zonation, the bathymetry and the shelf gradient were evaluated using these data. Estimation of the surficial sediment type, the surficial sediment thickness and sea ice regime were also made. It was found that the spatial distribution of extreme scour events is controlled by sea-ice regime, bathymetry and geotechnical zonation. The results obtained from mapping surveys suggested that the key controlling environmental factors may combine to limit the depth of extreme scour events to 5 meters.

  1. Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2018-03-10

    This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Expectation of recovery from low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Vach, Werner; Axø, Marie

    2014-01-01

    participants completed questionnaires at their first consultation due to LBP and 78% were followed for 3 months. At baseline, recovery expectations were measured on a 0-10 scale. Outcome measures were LBP intensity and Global Perceived Effect (GPE). Associations were tested in regression models......Study Design. A prospective cohort study conducted in general practice (GP) and chiropractic practice (CP).Objectives. To explore which patient characteristics were associated with recovery expectations in low back pain (LBP) patients, whether expectations predicted 3-month outcome, and to what...... extent expectations were associated with empirical prognostic factors.Summary of Background Data. Patients' recovery expectations have been associated with prognosis, but it is largely unknown why patients expect what they do, and how expectations relate to other prognostic factors.Methods. 1169...

  3. Offshore wind power in the Aegean Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are expected to prove valuable for the exploitation of the excellent wind resource of the Aegean Sea, to the benefit of the national economy. High-resolution SAR satellite data bring new information for pre-feasibility for instance at the policy planning level. For accurate...... hub heights at around 100 m using a combination of satellite wind fields and the long-term climate of atmospheric stability from the mesoscale model (Badger et al. 2016). The result of the mean wind speed at hub-height for the Aegean Sea is shown in Figure 1. The map shows the stability dependent...

  4. Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea – value of water quality improvements & risk perceptions Dr. Marianne Zandersen1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University Abstract The Baltic Sea is heavily eutrofied and the trend has gone from bad to worse. The hypoxic zone has increased about 4...... of the water column to the bottom waters/deepwater. The expected effects include a slowing down of the sediment release from the bottom and improvement of the possibilities for aerobic bacterial decomposition and over time for the establishment of fauna. The projects test a bio-engineered approach to speeding...

  5. The "I" in Extreme Responding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cabooter, E.; Millet, K.; Weijters, B.; Pandelaere, M.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of self-construal on extreme responding in six studies. The results show that people with an independent self-construal generally answer more extremely to survey items than those with an interdependent self-construal, especially when the items are self-relevant (Studies 1a

  6. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  7. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

    OpenAIRE

    d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-01-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

  8. Extreme Value Laws for Superstatistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pau Rabassa

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We study the extreme value distribution of stochastic processes modeled by superstatistics. Classical extreme value theory asserts that (under mild asymptotic independence assumptions only three possible limit distributions are possible, namely: Gumbel, Fr and Weibull distribution. On the other hand, superstatistics contains three important universality classes, namely \\(\\chi^2\\ \\(\\chi^2\\ and lognormal superstatistics, all maximizing different effective entropy measures. We investigate how the three classes of extreme value theory are related to the three classes of superstatistics. We show that for any superstatistical process whose local equilibrium distribution does not live on a finite support, the Weibull distribution cannot occur. Under the above mild asymptotic independence assumptions, we also show that \\(\\chi^2\\ generally leads an extreme value statistics described by a Fr distribution, whereas inverse \\(\\chi^2\\ as well as lognormal superstatistics, lead to an extreme value statistics associated with the Gumbel distribution.

  9. Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.

    2015-11-19

    A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass.

  10. Deep Extreme Cut: From Extreme Points to Object Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Maninis, Kevis-Kokitsi; Caelles, Sergi; Pont-Tuset, Jordi; Van Gool, Luc

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores the use of extreme points in an object (left-most, right-most, top, bottom pixels) as input to obtain precise object segmentation for images and videos. We do so by adding an extra channel to the image in the input of a convolutional neural network (CNN), which contains a Gaussian centered in each of the extreme points. The CNN learns to transform this information into a segmentation of an object that matches those extreme points. We demonstrate the usefulness of this appr...

  11. Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manucharyan, Georgy E.; Thompson, Andrew F.

    2017-12-01

    Signatures of ocean eddies, fronts, and filaments are commonly observed within marginal ice zones (MIZs) from satellite images of sea ice concentration, and in situ observations via ice-tethered profilers or underice gliders. However, localized and intermittent sea ice heating and advection by ocean eddies are currently not accounted for in climate models and may contribute to their biases and errors in sea ice forecasts. Here, we explore mechanical sea ice interactions with underlying submesoscale ocean turbulence. We demonstrate that the release of potential energy stored in meltwater fronts can lead to energetic submesoscale motions along MIZs with spatial scales O(10 km) and Rossby numbers O(1). In low-wind conditions, cyclonic eddies and filaments efficiently trap the sea ice and advect it over warmer surface ocean waters where it can effectively melt. The horizontal eddy diffusivity of sea ice mass and heat across the MIZ can reach O(200 m2 s-1). Submesoscale ocean variability also induces large vertical velocities (order 10 m d-1) that can bring relatively warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer. The ocean-sea ice heat fluxes are localized over cyclonic eddies and filaments reaching about 100 W m-2. We speculate that these submesoscale-driven intermittent fluxes of heat and sea ice can contribute to the seasonal evolution of MIZs. With the continuing global warming and sea ice thickness reduction in the Arctic Ocean, submesoscale sea ice-ocean processes are expected to become increasingly prominent.

  12. Worker expectations of occupational health consultations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stilz, R; Madan, I

    2014-04-01

    Worker beliefs and expectations influence their health and rehabilitation. However, little is known about worker expectations of occupational health (OH) consultations and if these are associated with their perceptions of health and work. To examine worker expectations of OH consultations, and whether the variability of worker expectations is associated with their perception of health and work and personal characteristics. A questionnaire on OH physicians' professional standards was developed from national guidance and validated by a survey of OH physicians. We explored 81 workers' expectations of professional standards along with their perception of health and work. Worker expectations were compared with the OH physician validation score. Associations of worker characteristics, their health and work perceptions and their expectations of professional standards were analysed by linear regression. Worker expectations of professional standards were lower when compared with the OH physician validation score (E = 3.9 versus 4.3, ΔE = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.66). Perceived manager support and work apprehension were associated with worker expectations (ΔE = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.29-0.86 for least versus most support; ΔE = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.41-1.36 for least versus highest apprehension). Job title, previous OH consultations and recovery expectations were not associated with worker expectations. Worker expectations of OH physicians' professional standards were lower than the standards set by national guidance as validated by the sampled OH physicians. Workers who felt more supported by their manager, and workers who were more apprehensive about the health impact of work had higher expectations of OH physicians' standards.

  13. The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

    2016-01-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

  14. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  15. Features of Red Sea Water Masses

    KAUST Repository

    Kartadikaria, Aditya R.

    2015-04-01

    Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ < 26.0. These types of water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

  16. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  17. Increase of extreme events in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Coumou, Dim

    2011-01-01

    We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. Short-term variability thus decreases the number of heat extremes, whereas a climatic warming increases it. For extremes exceeding a predefined threshold, the dependence on the warming trend is highly nonlinear. We further find that the sum of warm plus cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling. We estimate that climatic warming has increased the number of new global-mean temperature records expected in the last decade from 0.1 to 2.8. For July temperature in Moscow, we estimate that the local warming trend has increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold, which implies an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming. PMID:22025683

  18. The long-term variability of chemical structure of deep-water basins of the Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebrennikova, Ekaterina

    2017-04-01

    The Caspian Sea is a unique water object: the biggest lake on Earth, so large that it actually functions as a sea, but totally isolated from the World Ocean and extremely responsive to the climatic changes. The Caspian Sea is characterized by periodical large-scale sea level oscillations - it is one of the manifestations of multidecadal climatic fluctuations on East European Plain. In order to monitor the environmental conditions staff of the Laboratory of Hydrochemistry of Russian Federal Research Institution of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI "VNIRO") in collaboration with other russian scientific institutions conducts annual research cruises to the Caspian Sea. For the last 40 years natural and anthropogenic climatic changes caused a stable stratification of the water column in both Caspian basins and the nourishment depletion of the photic layer, created and annually aggravated by the biological pump. The data, collected in annual expeditions since 1995, shows the progressing hypoxia below the depth of 400 meters and the formation of hydrogen sulfidic contamination in bottom waters. The cumulative effect of natural variability and extremely intensive anthropogenic stress creates a very depressing environment for all the aquatics, from phytoplankton to unique commercial species. In the last 20 years the level of the Caspian Sea has lowered for 2,5 meters. This is a result of changes in the water balance of the Caspian Sea, that includes the decrease of freshwater income. In long-term perspective this leads to an increase in surface water density and in winter convection depth. However up until 2016 the stratification of the water column stayed stable, so the deep waters were isolated form the atmosphere. Annual monitoring since 1995 has shown gradual oxygen depletion and intensive accumulation of biogenic elements. In 2016 concentrations of phosphate and nitrate were the highest ever registered for the Caspian Sea. The analysis of the research conducted in

  19. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  20. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  1. Speed of vision depends on temporal expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Bundesen, Claus

    2009-01-01

    Temporal expectations play an important role in optimizing future perception and behavior, but the nature of the attentional processes affected by our expectations is still widely debated. To investigate effects of expectations on the speed of visual processing, we employed a cued single-letter r......Temporal expectations play an important role in optimizing future perception and behavior, but the nature of the attentional processes affected by our expectations is still widely debated. To investigate effects of expectations on the speed of visual processing, we employed a cued single......-letter recognition task with stimuli of varied durations terminated by pattern masks. To obtain an estimate of processing speed unconfounded by motor components, we used accuracy-based measures rather than reaction times. Eight healthy young subjects completed a total of 4,000 trials each. A symbolic cue...... measured the processing speed at times t [[gt

  2. Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

  3. Microbial Fuel Cells under Extreme Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monzon del Olmo, Oihane

    I developed a Microbial Fuel Cell (MFC) that unprecedentedly works (i.e., produces electricity) under extreme salinity (≈ 100 g/L NaCl). Many industries, such as oil and gas extraction, generate hypersaline wastewaters with high organic strength, accounting for about 5% of worldwide generated effluents, which represent a major challenge for pollution control and resource recovery. This study assesses the potential for microbial fuel cells (MFCs) to treat such wastewaters and generate electricity under extreme saline conditions. Specifically, the focus is on the feasibility to treat hypersaline wastewater generated by the emerging unconventional oil and gas industry (hydraulic fracturing) and so, with mean salinity of 100 g/L NaCl (3-fold higher than sea water). The success of this novel technology strongly depends on finding a competent and resilient microbial community that can degrade the waste under extreme saline conditions and be able to use the anode as their terminal electron acceptor (exoelectrogenic capability). I demonstrated that MFCs can produce electricity at extremely high salinity (up to 250 g/l NaCl) with a power production of 71mW/m2. Pyrosequencing analysis of the anode population showed the predominance of Halanaerobium spp. (85%), which has been found in shale formations and oil reservoirs. Promoting Quorum sensing (QS, cell to cell communication between bacteria to control gene expression) was used as strategy to increase the attachment of bacteria to the anode and thus improve the MFC performance. Results show that the power output can be bolstered by adding 100nM of quinolone signal with an increase in power density of 30%, for the first time showing QS in Halanaerobium extremophiles. To make this technology closer to market applications, experiments with real wastewaters were also carried out. A sample of produced wastewater from Barnet Shale, Texas (86 g/L NaCl) produced electricity when fed in an MFC, leading to my discovery of another

  4. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  5. Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; hide

    2016-01-01

    Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

  6. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W; Hegerl, Gabriele C

    2011-02-17

    Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature--and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation--it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.

  7. Solar radiation interactions with seasonal sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Jens Kristian

    features---such as frost flowers or slush layers---is required to understand the albedo of newly formed sea ice. The sea ice had reached its maximum thickness by late April in both FB and BB (˜1.8 m vs. 1.5-1.7 m). However, surface conditions differed notably as surface melting had not been initiated in FB, while melting had progressed to an advanced stage in BB, illustrating the difference in climate between the two regions (Arctic vs. sub-Arctic). The shortwave partitioning between the atmosphere, sea ice and the ocean---as well as within the sea ice---was strongly affected by diurnal freeze-thaw processes and synoptic weather events that controlled the optical characteristics of the surface. In spring, in situ measurements with a high vertical resolution were conducted within the bottom sea ice layers. The optical properties were strongly affected by ice algae present in the bottom few centimeters. Particulate absorption decreased quickly within the ice above the living algae layer, and showed characteristics of detrital matter. The optical properties for the bottom layers of the sea ice were found to significantly differ from interior ice. This is expected as the bottom ice is very porous and has a lamellar platelet structure, in addition to containing high concentrations of biological matter. These findings emphasize the importance of processes occurring near the surface and bottom boundaries in determining radiative transfer in sea ice covers. Ultimately, a focus on linking numerous aspects of sea ice physics and biology is required in order to predict the seasonal evolution of the sea ice cover in a changing climate.

  8. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... while accommodating output growth and monetary policy expectations. Forecasted GDP growth plays a significant role in explaining time variation in the market prices of risk. The sensitivity of long yields is linked to the persistence of expected inflation under the risk-neutral measure. Models...

  9. Salish Sea Genetics - Salish Sea genetic inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Salish Sea comprises most of the Puget Sound water area. Marine species are generally assemblages of discrete populations occupying various ecological niches....

  10. Microbial Diversity in Extreme Marine Habitats and Their Biomolecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poli, Annarita; Finore, Ilaria; Romano, Ida; Gioiello, Alessia; Lama, Licia; Nicolaus, Barbara

    2017-05-16

    Extreme marine environments have been the subject of many studies and scientific publications. For many years, these environmental niches, which are characterized by high or low temperatures, high-pressure, low pH, high salt concentrations and also two or more extreme parameters in combination, have been thought to be incompatible to any life forms. Thanks to new technologies such as metagenomics, it is now possible to detect life in most extreme environments. Starting from the discovery of deep sea hydrothermal vents up to the study of marine biodiversity, new microorganisms have been identified, and their potential uses in several applied fields have been outlined. Thermophile, halophile, alkalophile, psychrophile, piezophile and polyextremophile microorganisms have been isolated from these marine environments; they proliferate thanks to adaptation strategies involving diverse cellular metabolic mechanisms. Therefore, a vast number of new biomolecules such as enzymes, polymers and osmolytes from the inhabitant microbial community of the sea have been studied, and there is a growing interest in the potential returns of several industrial production processes concerning the pharmaceutical, medical, environmental and food fields.

  11. Pelagic sea snakes dehydrate at sea

    OpenAIRE

    Lillywhite, Harvey B.; Sheehy, Coleman M.; Brischoux, François; Grech, Alana

    2014-01-01

    Secondarily marine vertebrates are thought to live independently of fresh water. Here, we demonstrate a paradigm shift for the widely distributed pelagic sea snake, Hydrophis (Pelamis) platurus, which dehydrates at sea and spends a significant part of its life in a dehydrated state corresponding to seasonal drought. Snakes that are captured following prolonged periods without rainfall have lower body water content, lower body condition and increased tendencies to drink fresh water than do sna...

  12. Expected quality factor of a simple tuned oscillator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Kia Hock

    2011-05-01

    A positive feedback system oscillating under self-sustained mode is shown to have an extremely high gain. Modeled as one port, the expected Q is much higher than the loaded Q-factor of the resonator. With just thermal noise present, random phase/frequency deviation is linear. Centered about the oscillator frequency omega/(0), noise frequency on both sides is more amplified with decreasing separation distance. Ultimately, frequency pulling may result in synchronous locking with hysteresis, which occurs because a real oscillator displays a truncated limiting curve. Once locked onto a signal, smaller levels are ignored. A new approach to the design and characterization of a simple tuned oscillator is offered: According to the phenomenon of injection locking, there exists an expected quality factor relating the shape of the truncated limiting curve to an ideal curve. In this paper, synthesis and innovative analytical methods of academic interest are revealed: 1) application of the transducer loss method is revised to establish a new method for oscillator characterization; 2) a transparent method of normalizing a two-port network in the presence of white noise is developed; and 3) in quartz crystal controlled oscillators, characterization of the noise originating from an equivalent noise-resistance determined from parameter of the quartz crystal is proposed. It is shown that the two-port model can also be approximated on a one-port basis. In conclusion, a sample of closed-form estimation of expected Q-factor order of magnitude of piezoelectric resonator oscillators is calculated.

  13. Increase of extreme events in a warming world

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Coumou, Dim

    2011-01-01

    We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. Short-term variability thus decreases the number of heat extremes, whereas a c...

  14. The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

  15. How birds cope physiologically and behaviourally with extreme climatic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingfield, John C; Pérez, Jonathan H; Krause, Jesse S; Word, Karen R; González-Gómez, Paulina L; Lisovski, Simeon; Chmura, Helen E

    2017-06-19

    As global climate change progresses, the occurrence of potentially disruptive climatic events such as storms are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity resulting in higher mortality and reduced reproductive success. What constitutes an extreme climatic event? First we point out that extreme climatic events in biological contexts can occur in any environment. Focusing on field and laboratory data on wild birds we propose a mechanistic approach to defining and investigating what extreme climatic events are and how animals cope with them at physiological and behavioural levels. The life cycle of birds is made up of life-history stages such as migration, breeding and moult that evolved to match a range of environmental conditions an individual might expect during the year. When environmental conditions deteriorate and deviate from the expected range then the individual must trigger coping mechanisms (emergency life-history stage) that will disrupt the temporal progression of life-history stages, but enhance survival. Using the framework of allostasis, we argue that an extreme climatic event in biological contexts can be defined as when the cumulative resources available to an individual are exceeded by the sum of its energetic costs-a state called allostatic overload. This allostatic overload triggers the emergency life-history stage that temporarily allows the individual to cease regular activities in an attempt to survive extreme conditions. We propose that glucocorticoid hormones play a major role in orchestrating coping mechanisms and are critical for enduring extreme climatic events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

  17. Diversity and adaptations of deep-sea microorganisms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Raghukumar, C.

    hydrostatic pressures and slow decaying process at depth aided preservation opened up a whole new area of research in biology and chemistry of deep-sea waters. This unique and challenging extreme environment is home to native baro- and psychrophiles whereas...

  18. The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

  19. High waves in Draupner seas — Part 2 : Observation and prediction from synthetic radar images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groesen, E.; Wijaya, A. P.

    2017-01-01

    In Part 1, Van Groesen et al. (J Ocean Eng Mar Energy, 2017), a numerical study of extreme waves in so-called Draupner seas showed that extreme crest heights of 18 m, one-and-a-half times the significant wave height, occur in a time span of 20 min on average in every area less than 1 km(Formula

  20. Racial Extremism in the Army

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hudson, Walter M

    1998-01-01

    ... modem phenomenon of "skinheads." I then discuss the history of white supremacist extremism in the Army, culminating in the December, 1995 murders of two black civilians by soldiers assigned to the 82d Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina...

  1. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... (PDF) of turbulence driven short-term extreme wind shear events, conditioned on the mean wind speed, for an arbitrary recurrence period. The model is based on an asymptotic expansion, and only a few and easily accessible parameters are needed as input. The model of the extreme PDF is supplemented...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  2. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... (PDF) of turbulence driven short-term extreme wind shear events, conditioned on the mean wind speed, for an arbitrary recurrence period. The model is based on an asymptotic expansion, and only a few and easily accessible parameters are needed as input. The model of the extreme PDF is supplemented...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...

  3. When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

    2014-01-01

    The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits

  4. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate...... extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective...... which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence...

  5. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2017-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

  6. Dissonant Feedback about Achievement and Teachers' Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bognar, Carl J.

    1982-01-01

    Investigates impact of achievement test results (N=285) on 13 sixth-grade teachers' expectations using hypotheses from cognitive dissonance theory. Shows teacher expectations changed very little as a result of feedback, and test results for both under- and overestimated students were rejected. (AH)

  7. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP: AUDITORS IN UNENDING ROLE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    Key Words: Expectation gap, Auditors, Shareholders, Self-regulation, Audit expectation. Introduction. The primary objective of ... dissatisfaction of companies' stakeholders, including shareholders, current and potential investors, creditors etc. ..... agreement with what the questionnaire seeks. In order to ensure reliability of ...

  8. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  9. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect During a Colonoscopy Prep. Sedation. Procedure. Post-Procedure. This new educational video for GI patients, produced by the ACG Institute for Clinical Research and Education, ...

  10. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojtkowiak, J.; Wild, V.; Egger, J.I.M.

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142

  11. Smoking expands expected lifetime with musculoskeletal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    By indirect estimation of mortality from smoking and life table methods we estimated expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases among never smokers, ex-smokers, and smokers. We found that although life expectancy of a heavy smoker is 7 years shorter than that of a never smoker, heavy...

  12. 5 CFR 470.301 - Program expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Program expectations. 470.301 Section 470.301 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT RESEARCH PROGRAMS AND DEMONSTRATIONS PROJECTS Regulatory Requirements Pertaining to Demonstration Projects § 470.301 Program expectations. (a...

  13. Expectations as a key element in trusting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette Apollo; Hansen, Uffe Kjærgaard; Conradsen, Maria Bosse

    Considering the need for a tangible focus for qualitative research on trusting, we propose that expectations to the behavior of others can provide that. By focusing on expectations, researchers can produce narrative descriptions that explains how trusting develops and changes. Then the key...

  14. Testing Expected Shortfall Models for Derivative Positions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we test several risk management models for computing expected shortfall for one-period hedge errors of hedged derivatives positions.Contrary to value-at-risk, expected shortfall cannot be tested using the standard binomial test, since we need information of the distribution in the

  15. Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. It shows that beyond the well-established socioeconomic factors such as income, age, or gender, inflation expectations are also related to respondents’ financial......, their bias shrinks by more than that of the average household in response to increasing media reporting about inflation....

  16. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojtkowiak, Joanna; Wild, Verena; Egger, Jos

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142 bereaved participants completed the Grief…

  17. International Variations in Measuring Customer Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Philip J.

    2001-01-01

    Discussion of customer expectations of library service quality and SERVQUAL as a measurement tool focuses on two studies: one that compared a survey of Chinese university students' expectations of service quality to New Zealand students; and one that investigated national culture as a source of attitudes to customer service. (Author/LRW)

  18. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  19. Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    identify locations of both observed and expected rapid sea ice change. Based on satellite observations, the median length of the 2012 open-water season expanded by between 1.5 and 3-fold relative to 1979 over the Arctic Sea region. This results in open water during the stormy Arctic fall, with implications for not only coastal processes but for amplification of warming on land.

  20. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  1. Outliers, extreme events, and multiscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'vov, Victor S.; Pomyalov, Anna; Procaccia, Itamar

    2001-05-01

    Extreme events have an important role which is sometimes catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena, including climate, earthquakes, and turbulence, as well as in manmade environments such as financial markets. Statistical analysis and predictions in such systems are complicated by the fact that on the one hand extreme events may appear as ``outliers'' whose statistical properties do not seem to conform with the bulk of the data, and on the other hand they dominate the tails of the probability distributions and the scaling of high moments, leading to ``abnormal'' or ``multiscaling.'' We employ a shell model of turbulence to show that it is very useful to examine in detail the dynamics of onset and demise of extreme events. Doing so may reveal dynamical scaling properties of the extreme events that are characteristic to them, and not shared by the bulk of the fluctuations. As the extreme events dominate the tails of the distribution functions, knowledge of their dynamical scaling properties can be turned into a prediction of the functional form of the tails. We show that from the analysis of relatively short-time horizons (in which the extreme events appear as outliers) we can predict the tails of the probability distribution functions, in agreement with data collected in very much longer time horizons. The conclusion is that events that may appear unpredictable on relatively short time horizons are actually a consistent part of a multiscaling statistics on longer time horizons.

  2. Irrigation mitigates against heat extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Fischer, Erich; Visser, Auke; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use gridded observations and ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on hot extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Finally we find that present-day irrigation is partly masking GHG-induced warming of extreme temperatures, with particularly strong effects in South Asia. Our results overall underline that irrigation substantially reduces our exposure to hot temperature extremes and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

  3. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea-level...

  4. Sea-ice thickness from field measurements in the northwestern Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Jennifer; Spreen, Gunnar; Gerland, Sebastian; Haas, Christian; Hendricks, Stefan; Kaleschke, Lars; Wang, Caixin

    2017-02-01

    The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at -23±4% decade-1. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014. The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between 1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice; as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either first-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5-0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.

  5. Atmospheric Forcing of the Winter Air–Sea Heat Fluxes over the Northern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.

    2013-03-01

    The influence of the atmospheric circulation on the winter air–sea heat fluxes over the northern Red Sea is investigated during the period 1985–2011. The analysis based on daily heat flux values reveals that most of the net surface heat exchange variability depends on the behavior of the turbulent components of the surface flux (the sum of the latent and sensible heat). The large-scale composite sea level pressure (SLP) maps corresponding to turbulent flux minima and maxima show distinct atmospheric circulation patterns associated with each case. In general, extreme heat loss (with turbulent flux lower than −400 W m−2) over the northern Red Sea is observed when anticyclonic conditions prevail over an area extending from the Mediterranean Sea to eastern Asia along with a recession of the equatorial African lows system. Subcenters of high pressure associated with this pattern generate the required steep SLP gradient that enhances the wind magnitude and transfers cold and dry air masses from higher latitudes. Conversely, turbulent flux maxima (heat loss minimization with values from −100 to −50 W m−2) are associated with prevailing low pressures over the eastern Mediterranean and an extended equatorial African low that reaches the southern part of the Red Sea. In this case, a smooth SLP field over the northern Red Sea results in weak winds over the area that in turn reduce the surface heat loss. At the same time, southerlies blowing along the main axis of the Red Sea transfer warm and humid air northward, favoring heat flux maxima.

  6. Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint...... probability density function (j.p.d.f.). However, the j.p.d.f.'s are in general site specific and very few examples exist where the necessary intensive investigations to establish such functions have been performed. Moreover, a general theoretical treatment of the problem is mathematically complicated...

  7. THRESHOLD PARAMETER OF THE EXPECTED LOSSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of extreme value analysis is to quantify the probabilistic behavior of unusually large losses using only extreme values above some high threshold rather than using all of the data which gives better fit to tail distribution in comparison to traditional methods with assumption of normality. In our case we estimate market risk using daily returns of the CROBEX index at the Zagreb Stock Exchange. Therefore, it’s necessary to define the excess distribution above some threshold, i.e. Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD is used as much more reliable than the normal distribution due to the fact that gives the accent on the extreme values. Parameters of GPD distribution will be estimated using maximum likelihood method (MLE. The contribution of this paper is to specify threshold which is large enough so that GPD approximation valid but low enough so that a sufficient number of observations are available for a precise fit.

  8. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean tem...

  9. SEA and planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoeglehner, G.; Brown, A.L.; Kørnøv, Lone

    2009-01-01

    As the field of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has matured, the focus has moved from the development of legislation, guidelines and methodologies towards improving the effectiveness of SEA. Measuring and of course achieving effectiveness is both complex and challenging. This paper......, and the relationship of the SEA to the planning activity itself. This paper focuses on the influence that planners have in these implementation processes, postulating the hypothesis that these are key players in achieving effectiveness in SEA. Based upon implementation theory and empirical experience, the paper...

  10. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  11. Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, M T; Seth, A K; Barrett, A B; Kanai, R

    2015-09-01

    The influential framework of 'predictive processing' suggests that prior probabilistic expectations influence, or even constitute, perceptual contents. This notion is evidenced by the facilitation of low-level perceptual processing by expectations. However, whether expectations can facilitate high-level components of perception remains unclear. We addressed this question by considering the influence of expectations on perceptual metacognition. To isolate the effects of expectation from those of attention we used a novel factorial design: expectation was manipulated by changing the probability that a Gabor target would be presented; attention was manipulated by instructing participants to perform or ignore a concurrent visual search task. We found that, independently of attention, metacognition improved when yes/no responses were congruent with expectations of target presence/absence. Results were modeled under a novel Bayesian signal detection theoretic framework which integrates bottom-up signal propagation with top-down influences, to provide a unified description of the mechanisms underlying perceptual decision and metacognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonson, J.E.; Jalkanen, J.P.; Johansson, L.; Gauss, M.; Gon, H.A.C.D. van der

    2015-01-01

    Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission

  13. Ideologies and Discourses: Extreme Narratives in Extreme Metal Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojana Radovanović

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Historically speaking, metal music has always been about provoking a strong reaction. Depending on the characteristics of different sub-genres, one can focus on the sound, technique, visual appearance, and furthermore, the ideologies and ideas that are the foundation for each of the sub-genres. Although the majority of the metal community rejects accusations of being racially intolerant, some ideologies of extreme sub-genres (such as black metal are in fact formed around the ideas of self-conscious elitism expressed through interest in pagan mythology, racism, Nazism and fascism. There has been much interest in the Nazi era within the extreme metal scene thus influencing other sub-genres and artists. The aim of this paper is to examine various appearances of extreme narratives such as Nazism and racism in  different sub-genres of metal, bearing in mind variations dependent on geographical, political, and other factors.

  14. Breather Rogue Waves in Random Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Ma, Q. W.; Yan, S.; Chabchoub, A.

    2018-01-01

    Rogue or freak waves are extreme wave events that have heights exceeding 8 times the standard deviation of surrounding waves and emerge, for instance, in the ocean as well as in other physical dispersive wave guides, such as in optical fibers. One effective and convenient way to model such an extreme dynamics in laboratory environments within a controlled framework as well as for short process time and length scales is provided through the breather formalism. Breathers are pulsating localized structures known to model extreme waves in several nonlinear dispersive media in which the initial underlying process is assumed to be narrow banded. On the other hand, several recent studies suggest that breathers can also persist in more complex environments, such as in random seas, beyond the attributed physical limitations. In this work, we study the robustness of the Peregrine breather (PB) embedded in Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) configurations using fully nonlinear hydrodynamic numerical simulations in order to validate its practicalness for ocean engineering applications. We provide a specific range for both the spectral bandwidth of the dynamical process as well as the background wave steepness and, thus, quantify the applicability of the PB in modeling rogue waves in realistic oceanic conditions. Our results may motivate analogous studies in fields of physics such as optics and plasma to quantify the limitations of exact weakly nonlinear models, such as solitons and breathers, within the framework of the fully nonlinear governing equations of the corresponding medium.

  15. The Potential for Wave Energy in the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, H. C.; Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2010-01-01

    The North Sea has not yet been regarded as prime area for wave energy development in Europe except in Denmark, Benelux and Germany. The reason is the relatively low intensity of waves (12-17kW/m) compared to the Atlantic with a wave climate of 24-48kW/m. Further on the design wave load is almost...... the North Sea are expected to change the priority in favour of utilising wave energy from the North Sea. The paper describes the opportunities for power production in the North Sea considering the competition for space and the synergy with offshore wind. Two approaches are used: a traditional national...... approach using very modest assumptions about how to establish a first generation of wave energy producing devices connected at a national level; and a trans-national cooperation approach taking into account the existence of a grid connecting several wind farms in the North Sea area. The former approach...

  16. Pelagic sea snakes dehydrate at sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillywhite, Harvey B; Sheehy, Coleman M; Brischoux, François; Grech, Alana

    2014-05-07

    Secondarily marine vertebrates are thought to live independently of fresh water. Here, we demonstrate a paradigm shift for the widely distributed pelagic sea snake, Hydrophis (Pelamis) platurus, which dehydrates at sea and spends a significant part of its life in a dehydrated state corresponding to seasonal drought. Snakes that are captured following prolonged periods without rainfall have lower body water content, lower body condition and increased tendencies to drink fresh water than do snakes that are captured following seasonal periods of high rainfall. These animals do not drink seawater and must rehydrate by drinking from a freshwater lens that forms on the ocean surface during heavy precipitation. The new data based on field studies indicate unequivocally that this marine vertebrate dehydrates at sea where individuals may live in a dehydrated state for possibly six to seven months at a time. This information provides new insights for understanding water requirements of sea snakes, reasons for recent declines and extinctions of sea snakes and more accurate prediction for how changing patterns of precipitation might affect these and other secondarily marine vertebrates living in tropical oceans.

  17. Pelagic sea snakes dehydrate at sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillywhite, Harvey B.; Sheehy, Coleman M.; Brischoux, François; Grech, Alana

    2014-01-01

    Secondarily marine vertebrates are thought to live independently of fresh water. Here, we demonstrate a paradigm shift for the widely distributed pelagic sea snake, Hydrophis (Pelamis) platurus, which dehydrates at sea and spends a significant part of its life in a dehydrated state corresponding to seasonal drought. Snakes that are captured following prolonged periods without rainfall have lower body water content, lower body condition and increased tendencies to drink fresh water than do snakes that are captured following seasonal periods of high rainfall. These animals do not drink seawater and must rehydrate by drinking from a freshwater lens that forms on the ocean surface during heavy precipitation. The new data based on field studies indicate unequivocally that this marine vertebrate dehydrates at sea where individuals may live in a dehydrated state for possibly six to seven months at a time. This information provides new insights for understanding water requirements of sea snakes, reasons for recent declines and extinctions of sea snakes and more accurate prediction for how changing patterns of precipitation might affect these and other secondarily marine vertebrates living in tropical oceans. PMID:24648228

  18. Recovery of uranium resources from sea water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurushima, Morihiro

    1980-01-01

    After the oil crisis in 1973, the development of atomic energy has become important as substitute energy, and the stable acquisition of uranium resources is indispensable, in order to promote smoothly the use of atomic energy. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has engaged actively in the project ''The survey on the technical development of the system for recovering uranium and others from sea water'' since 1974. 80% of the uranium resources in the world is distributed in USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia and Niger, and in near future, the price of uranium ores may be raised. Japan must promote powerfully the development of foreign uranium resources, but also it is very important to get domestic uranium by efficiently recovering the uranium dissolved in sea water, the amount of which was estimated at 4 billion tons, and its practical use is expected in 1990s. The uranium concentration in sea water is about 3 g in 1000 t sea water. The processes of separation and recovery are as follows: (1) adsorption of uranium to titanic acid powder adsorbent by bringing sea water in contact with it, (2) dissolving the collected uranium with ammonium carbonate, the desorption agent, (3) concentration of uranium solution by ion exchange method or ion flotation method to 2800 ppm. The outline of the model plant is explained. (Kako, I.)

  19. Impacts of freshwater changes on Antarctic sea ice in an eddy-permitting sea-ice–ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Haid

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In a warming climate, satellite data indicate that the sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased over the last decades. One of the suggested explanations is the stabilizing effect of increased mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we investigate the sea ice response to changes in both the amount and the spatial distribution of freshwater input to the ocean by comparing a set of numerical sensitivity simulations with additional supply of water at the Antarctic ocean surface. We analyze the short-term response of the sea ice cover and the on-shelf water column to variations in the amount and distribution of the prescribed surface freshwater flux.Our results confirm that enhancing the freshwater input can increase the sea ice extent. Our experiments show a negative development of the sea ice extent only for extreme freshwater additions. We find that the spatial distribution of freshwater is of great influence on sea ice concentration and thickness as it affects sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics. For strong regional contrasts in the freshwater addition the dynamic response dominates the local change in sea ice, which generally opposes the thermodynamic response. Furthermore, we find that additional coastal runoff generally leads to fresher and warmer dense shelf waters.

  20. Memory for expectation-violating concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porubanova, Michaela; Shaw, Daniel; McKay, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    expectations and with intuitive concepts (e.g., ‘‘galloping pony’’, ‘‘drying orchid’’, or ‘‘convertible car’’), in both immediate recall, and delayed recognition tests. Importantly, concepts related to agents showed a memory advantage over concepts not pertaining to agents, but this was true only......Previous research has shown that ideas which violate our expectations, such as schema-inconsistent concepts, enjoy privileged status in terms of memorability. In our study, memory for concepts that violate cultural (cultural schema-level) expectations (e.g., ‘‘illiterate teacher’’, ‘‘wooden bottle...

  1. Patient expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colagiuri, Ben; Zachariae, Robert

    2010-01-01

    to determine the strength of the relationship between expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea. METHODS: The findings from 17 relevant studies (n = 2,400) identified through systematic searches of Medline, PsycInfo, and Cinhal were analyzed using a combination of meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: Overall......, there was a robust positive association between expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea (ESr = 0.18, equivalent to Cohen's d = 0.35), suggesting that patients with stronger expectancies experience more chemotherapy-induced nausea. Although weaker associations were found in studies employing multivariate analysis...

  2. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion...... of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...

  3. The Probability Model of Expectation Disconfirmation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Hsin HUANG

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probability model to explore the dynamic process of customer’s satisfaction. Bases on expectation disconfirmation theory, the satisfaction is constructed with customer’s expectation before buying behavior and the perceived performance after purchase. The experiment method is designed to measure expectation disconfirmation effects and we also use the collection data to estimate the overall satisfaction and model calibration. The results show good fitness between the model and the real data. This model has application for business marketing areas in order to manage relationship satisfaction.

  4. Extreme river flow dependence in Northern Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, M. Franco; Scott, M.; Hoey, T.; Fischbacher-Smith, D.

    2012-04-01

    Various methods for the spatial analysis of hydrologic data have been developed recently. Here we present results using the conditional probability approach proposed by Keef et al. [Appl. Stat. (2009): 58,601-18] to investigate spatial interdependence in extreme river flows in Scotland. This approach does not require the specification of a correlation function, being mostly suitable for relatively small geographical areas. The work is motivated by the Flood Risk Management Act (Scotland (2009)) which requires maps of flood risk that take account of spatial dependence in extreme river flow. The method is based on two conditional measures of spatial flood risk: firstly the conditional probability PC(p) that a set of sites Y = (Y 1,...,Y d) within a region C of interest exceed a flow threshold Qp at time t (or any lag of t), given that in the specified conditioning site X > Qp; and, secondly the expected number of sites within C that will exceed a flow Qp on average (given that X > Qp). The conditional probabilities are estimated using the conditional distribution of Y |X = x (for large x), which can be modeled using a semi-parametric approach (Heffernan and Tawn [Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (2004): 66,497-546]). Once the model is fitted, pseudo-samples can be generated to estimate functionals of the joint tails of the distribution of (Y,X). Conditional return level plots were directly compared to traditional return level plots thus improving our understanding of the dependence structure of extreme river flow events. Confidence intervals were calculated using block bootstrapping methods (100 replicates). We report results from applying this approach to a set of four rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe and Ness) in Northern Scotland. These sites were chosen based on data quality, spatial location and catchment characteristics. The river Ness, being the largest (catchment size 1839.1km2) was chosen as the conditioning river. Both the Ewe (441.1km2) and Ness catchments have

  5. Sea Ice - The overlooked Player in the Arctic Methane Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damm, E.

    2017-12-01

    Methane is a greenhouse gas and increasing atmospheric concentrations contribute to trigger global warming. The Arctic hosts large natural methane sources and is expected to be a region where warming feeds warming, i.e. temperature changes may quickly induce enhanced methane emissions. This Arctic amplification of global warming has led to increased summer sea ice retreat, thinning sea ice and decreasing multiyear and increasing one-year sea ice. Hence as feedback to a feedback, sea ice loss will have until now unforeseen consequences for methane efflux while as well as sea ice-ocean interactions and shelf-ocean links have to be taken into account. I will present an overview of multiple direct and indirect effects of sea ice on the marine methane cycle not yet counted. Arctic shelf water is reported to be methane super-saturated in summer. Hence an important interaction between sea ice and methane is to be expected when sea ice formation on shelves induces super-saturated brine which will be enclosed in sea ice during winter and released in spring during melt. It will be shown that especially Polynya regions allow studying the effect of strong ice formation in winter which generate deep convection and resuspension of sediments with subsequent methane release. Once released, then methane may either directly escape to the atmosphere or remain trapped in sea ice. The further fate of the enclosed methane is closely coupled to the fate of the sea ice. Hence thinning and shifts in sea ice-age will be pivotal for methane cycling. Sea ice drift may transport shelf- released methane to remote locations in the interior Arctic where the cascade of freezing and melting events triggers the level of super-saturation in Polar surface water below. To date these kinds of sea ice-ocean interaction processes initially induced by shelf-released methane are the most unknown boxes in calculating the methane budget. Considering these pathways instead of efflux estimations calculated by

  6. Changes of Extreme Climate Events in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Avotniece, Z; Klavins, M; Rodinovs, V

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climate events are increasingly recognized as a threat to human health, agriculture, forestry and other sectors. To assess the occurrence and impacts of extreme climate events, we have investigated the changes of indexes characterizing positive and negative temperature extremes and extreme precipitation as well as the spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events in Latvia. Trend analysis of long–term changes in the frequency of extreme climate events demonst...

  7. Book review: Extreme ocean waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme Ocean Waves”, edited by E. Pelinovsky and C. Kharif, second edition, Springer International Publishing, 2016; ISBN: 978-3-319-21574-7, ISBN (eBook): 978-3-319-21575-4The second edition of “Extreme Ocean Waves” published by Springer is an update of a collection of 12 papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif following the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. In this edition, three new papers have been added and three more have been substantially revised. Color figures are now included, which greatly aids in reading several of the papers, and is especially helpful in visualizing graphs as in the paper on symbolic computation of nonlinear wave resonance (Tobisch et al.). A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, including deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (which are alternatively termed freak waves), and internal waves. One new paper on tsunamis (Viroulet et al.) is now included in the second edition of this volume. Throughout the book, the reader will find a combination of laboratory, theoretical, and statistical/empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the Introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting a dramatic instance of damaging extreme waves that recently occurred in 2014.

  8. Extreme lattices: symmetries and decorrelation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreanov, A.; Scardicchio, A.; Torquato, S.

    2016-11-01

    We study statistical and structural properties of extreme lattices, which are the local minima in the density landscape of lattice sphere packings in d-dimensional Euclidean space {{{R}}d} . Specifically, we ascertain statistics of the densities and kissing numbers as well as the numbers of distinct symmetries of the packings for dimensions 8 through 13 using the stochastic Voronoi algorithm. The extreme lattices in a fixed dimension of space d (d≥slant 8 ) are dominated by typical lattices that have similar packing properties, such as packing densities and kissing numbers, while the best and the worst packers are in the long tails of the distribution of the extreme lattices. We also study the validity of the recently proposed decorrelation principle, which has important implications for sphere packings in general. The degree to which extreme-lattice packings decorrelate as well as how decorrelation is related to the packing density and symmetry of the lattices as the space dimension increases is also investigated. We find that the extreme lattices decorrelate with increasing dimension, while the least symmetric lattices decorrelate faster.

  9. Metagenomics of microbial life in extreme temperature environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Anna; Wentzel, Alexander; Valla, Svein

    2013-06-01

    Microbial life in extreme environments is attracting broad scientific interest. Knowledge about it helps in defining the boundaries for life to exist, and organisms living under extreme conditions are also interesting sources for enzymes with unusual and desirable properties. The tremendous progress in DNA sequencing technologies now makes it relatively easy to gain a representative overview of the composition of such communities, and many community studies have in the last decade applied metagenomics to characterize habitats extreme in, for example, temperature, salt and acidity. The future challenges in the field are likely to become more and more related to the conversion of the expected massive amounts of sequence information into an understanding of the corresponding biological community functions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Team-client Relationships And Extreme Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Karn

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a study that examined the relationship between software engineering teams who adhered to the extreme programming (XP methodology and their project clients. The study involved observing teams working on projects for clients who had commissioned a piece of software to be used in the real world. Interviews were conducted during and at the end of the project to get client opinion on how the project had progressed. Of interest to the researchers were opinions on frequency of feedback, how the team captured requirements, whether or not the iterative approach of XP proved to be helpful, and the level of contextual and software engineering knowledge the client had at the start of the project. In theory, fidelity to XP should result in enhanced communication, reduce expectation gaps, and lead to greater client satisfaction. Our results suggest that this depends heavily on the communication skills of the team and of the client, the expectations of the client, and the nature of the project.

  11. Variance swap payoffs, risk premia and extreme market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    constraint. Our approach, only requiring option implied volatilities and daily returns for the underlying, provides measurement error free estimates of the part of the VRP related to normal market conditions, and allows constructing variables indicating agents' expectations under extreme market conditions....... The latter variables and the VRP generate different return predictability on the major US indices. A factor model is proposed to extract a market VRP which turns out to be priced when considering Fama and French portfolios....

  12. Extremely localized nonorthogonal orbitals by the pairing theorem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoboki, T; Mayer, I

    2011-03-01

    Using the concepts of Löwdin pairing theorem, a method is developed to calculate extremely localized, but nonorthogonal, sets of molecular orbitals and their strictly localized counterparts. The method is very suitable to study to what extent a given model of bonding in a given molecule can be considered adequate from the point of view of the actual LCAO-MO (Hartree Fock or DFT) wave function and is expected to be useful for doing local approximations of electron correlation.

  13. Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roscoe, Joseph

    1999-01-01

    ...; and writing abstracts, papers, and book chapters. The training also includes the design, implementation and analyses of a randomized controlled experiment examining the relationship between cancer patient expectations for experiencing chemotherapy...

  14. Anesthesia -- What to Expect (For Teens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Anesthesia - What to Expect KidsHealth / For Teens / Anesthesia - What ... Operating Room After Surgery Print Different Kinds of Anesthesia If you're having any kind of procedure ...

  15. Stakeholder expectation and satisfaction in road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hietbrink, M.; Hartmann, Andreas; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the process of stakeholder satisfaction is a prerequisite for successful stakeholder management. The expectancy disconfirmation model describes the process of stakeholder satisfaction by relating customers’ satisfaction with a product or service to discrepancy between the perceived

  16. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational ... ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  17. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Check out the ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During ... PATIENT CENTER SAP-MOC SELF-ASSESSMENT TEST ACG @Twitter ACG Blog About ACG ACG Store American College ...

  18. Rising sea surface temperature: towards ice-free Arctic summers and a changing marine food chain Document Actions

    OpenAIRE

    Coppini, Giovanni; Christiansen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    Global sea surface temperature is approximately 1 degree C higher now than 140 years ago, and is one of the primary physical impacts of climate change. Sea surface temperature in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans. Projections show the temperature increases will persist throughout this century. Ice-free summers are expected in the Arctic by the end of this century, if not earlier. Already, there is evidence that many marine ecosystems in European seas are affec...

  19. Sea Ice Index, Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sea Ice Index provides a quick look at Arctic- and Antarctic-wide changes in sea ice. It is a source for consistent, up-to-date sea ice extent and concentration...

  20. Corrosion behaviour of hyper duplex stainless steel in various metallurgical conditions for sea water cooled condensers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Umesh Pratap; Kain, Vivekanand; Chandra, Kamlesh

    2011-01-01

    The sea water cooled condensers have to resist severe corrosion as marine environment is the most corrosive natural environment. Copper alloys are being phased out due to difficulties in water chemistry control and Titanium base alloys are extremely expensive. Austenitic stainless steels (SS) remain prone to localized corrosion in marine environments hence not suitable. These heat exchangers operate at temperatures not exceeding 50 deg C and at very low pressures. The tubes of these heat exchangers are joined to the carbon steel tube sheets by roll expansion or by roll expansion followed by seam welding. These conditions are expected to affect the localized corrosion resistance of the tube in roll joined region due to cold working and in the tube-tube sheet welded joint due to thermal effects of welding. In this study, the localized corrosion behaviour of a Hyper Duplex Stainless Steel (HDSS) has been evaluated, and compared with other materials e.g. types 304L SS, 316L SS, Duplex SS 2205, Titanium grade - 2, and Al Brass. The evaluation is done in three metallurgical conditions (a) as received, (b) cold rolled and (c) welded condition in synthetic sea water at room temperature and at 50 deg C to assess the resistance to crevice, pitting and stress corrosion cracking using standard ASTM exposure and electrochemical techniques. The results provide comparative assessment of these alloys and show their susceptibility in the three metallurgical conditions as encountered in condensers. Hyper-duplex SS has been shown to be highly resistant in sea water for the condenser tubing application. (author)