WorldWideScience

Sample records for events climate variability

  1. Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilú Bouchon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

  2. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  3. Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years

  4. Impacts of climate variability and extreme events on the terrestrial carbon cycle of the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, A. B.; Cox, P.; Wiltshire, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, C. D.; Mercado, L.; Groenendijk, M.; Sitch, S.

    2013-12-01

    , biomass, and photosynthesis. Simulated fluxes of net ecosystem exchange, sensible and latent heat fluxes were closest to FLUXNET observations when the model was run with optimized physiological parameters, deep roots, and a relaxed soil moisture stress function. We also compared seasonality of modelled photosynthesis to that implied from measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence from the GOSAT satellite, and found good agreement. This gives us confidence in using the model to assess impacts of climate variability. Over the past several decades, the largest fluxes of CO2 from the biosphere to the atmosphere occurred during years of extreme drought: for example during 1987, 1998, and 2010. We analyse the driving factors behind these fluxes to assess climate sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. The relationship between terrestrial carbon fluxes and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are explored as the largest source of the variability, which can help in predicting future sensitivity of the forest.

  5. Exploring the signature of climate and landscape spatial variabilities in flash flood events: Case of the 8-9 September 2002 Cévennes-Vivarais catastrophic event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Lay, M.; Saulnier, G. M.

    2007-07-01

    This paper investigates the signature of climate and landscape spatial variabilities on flash-floods events. Through the case of the catastrophic 8-9 September 2002 Cévennes-Vivarais event, the impact of the space-time structure of the rainfall on the distributed hydrological response is evaluated. Comparisons are made with other spatial variabilities that may also contribute to the flash-flood generation such as initial soil moisture condition, topography, landscape characteristics, hydraulic processes. A model-based approach is suggested and was applied on 19 catchments. It is shown that the spatial variability of rainfall and of the initial soil moisture conditions were both of first order in the flash-floods generation and that the spatial variability of landscape properties were of second order. This methodology will be applied on other extreme hydro-meteorological events surveyed by the OHM-CV (Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory), with the aim of providing clues on processes that should be particularly focused when measuring and simulating such intense mesoscale meteorological events.

  6. Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Mark D.; Stone, Dáithí A.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.; Angélil, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in computational resources motivate the use of uncoupled, atmosphere/land-only climate models with prescribed ocean conditions run over a short period, leading up to and including an event of interest. In this approach, large ensembles of high-resolution simulations can be generated under factual observed conditions and counterfactual conditions that might have been observed in the absence of human interference; these can be used to estimate the change in probability of the given event due to anthropogenic influence. However, using a prescribed ocean state ignores the possibility that estimates of attributable risk might be a function of the ocean state. Thus, the uncertainty in attributable risk is likely underestimated, implying an over-confidence in anthropogenic influence. In this work, we estimate the year-to-year variability in calculations of the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather based on large ensembles of atmospheric model simulations. Our results both quantify the magnitude of year-to-year variability and categorize the degree to which conclusions of attributable risk are qualitatively affected. The methodology is illustrated by exploring extreme temperature and precipitation events for the northwest coast of South America and northern-central Siberia; we also provides results for regions around the globe. While it remains preferable to perform a full multi-year analysis, the results presented here can serve as an indication of where and when attribution researchers should be concerned about the use of atmosphere-only simulations.

  7. Information transfer and synchronization among the scales of climate variability: clues for understanding anomalies and extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan

    2017-04-01

    Deeper understanding of complex dynamics of the Earth atmosphere and climate is inevitable for sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change and for prediction of and resilience against extreme events. Traditional (linear) approaches cannot explain or even detect nonlinear interactions of dynamical processes evolving on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Combination of nonlinear dynamics and information theory explains synchronization as a process of adjustment of information rates [1] and causal relations (à la Granger) as information transfer [2]. Information born in dynamical complexity or information transferred among systems on a way to synchronization might appear as an abstract quantity, however, information transfer is tied to a transfer of mass and energy, as demonstrated in a recent study using directed (causal) climate networks [2]. Recently, an information transfer across scales of atmospheric dynamics has been observed [3]. In particular, a climate oscillation with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as a factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [4]. In the dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, three principal time scales have been identified: the annual cycle (AC), the quasibiennial (QB) mode(s) and the low-frequency (LF) variability. An intricate causal network of information flows among these modes helps to understand the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, characterized by synchronization of the QB modes and AC, and modulation of the QB amplitude by the LF mode. The latter

  8. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased

  9. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J.; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  10. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Havens

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Shallow lakes, particularly those in low-lying areas of the subtropics, are highly vulnerable to changes in climate associated with global warming. Many of these lakes are in tropical cyclone strike zones and they experience high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall and runoff. Both of those factors strongly modulate sediment–water column interactions, which play a critical role in shallow lake nutrient cycling, water column irradiance characteristics and cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB dynamics. We illustrate this with three examples, using long-term (15–25 years datasets on water quality and plankton from three shallow lakes: Lakes Okeechobee and George (Florida, USA and Lake Taihu (China. Okeechobee and Taihu have been impacted repeatedly by tropical cyclones that have resulted in large amounts of runoff and sediment resuspension, and resultant increases in dissolved nutrients in the water column. In both cases, when turbidity declined, major blooms of the toxic CyanoHAB Microcystis aeruginosa occurred over large areas of the lakes. In Lake George, periods of high rainfall resulted in high dissolved color, reduced irradiance, and increased water turnover rates which suppress blooms, whereas in dry periods with lower water color and water turnover rates there were dense cyanobacteria blooms. We identify a suite of factors which, from our experience, will determine how a particular shallow lake will respond to a future with global warming, flashier rainfall, prolonged droughts and stronger tropical cyclones.

  11. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    Future climate change is generally believed to lead to an increase in climate variability and in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Extreme climate events such as floods and dry spells have significant impacts on society. As noted by the Bureau of Meteorology, Canada, to examine whether such extremes have ...

  12. Variability of temperature and chlorophyll of the Iberian Peninsula near costal ecosystem during an upwelling event for the present climate and a future climate scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, José Fortes; Ferreira, Juan A.; Cardoso, Ana Cristina; Rocha, Alfredo C.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the importance and the implication of the climate changes on coastal areas may be one of the major issues for this and next centuries. Climate changes may, indeed, impact the nearshore marine ecosystem, as coastal areas are very sensitive to the strength and the variability of the meteorological forcings. The main purpose of this work is to study temperature and phytoplankton distributions along the Portuguese near coastal zone during upwelling events in the present climate conditions and in a future climate scenario. The SRES-A2 IPCC scenario has been considered. We have used a three-dimensional model for coastal and shelf seas, including the following sub-models: hydrodynamical/physical, biological, sediment and contaminant. The forcings are provided by the interactions at the air-sea, considering the wind intensity and direction with the help of the WRF model (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Results show that, for the future climate scenario, there is a reinforcement of the southward wind. The responses of the coastal ecosystem corresponds to the reinforcement of both, the southward (up to 10 cm/s) and the westward (up to 6 cm/s) induced upwelling currents. This, in turn generates an enlargement of the near coast upwelled cold layer, extending up to 60 km, as well as the rise of the warm layer temperature (up to 2.0 °C) and the spreading of the phytoplankton offshore. Significant changes in both the Chl-a vertical and the horizontal distribution patterns have been observed, as the nutrient supply to the upper layers depends on the strength of the upwelling, the bottom topography and orography of the coastal. These results confirm that changes in the strength and eventually the frequency of the upwelling favourable wind impact the phytoplankton distribution, which can have significant effect in the distribution and population of the upper level of the trophic chain of the coastal ecosystem.

  13. Climate variability and planktonic communities: The effect of an extreme event (severe drought) in a southern European estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Sónia Cotrim; Azeiteiro, Ulisses Miranda; Martinho, Filipe; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo

    2007-07-01

    As a consequence of climate change, flood and drought events are increasing in frequency throughout the world. Nevertheless, knowledge of the effects on zooplankton estuarine communities is still scarce. The present study aimed to examine zooplankton ecology over two contrasting environmental conditions: regular years and extreme dry years, in a shallow temperate southern European estuary, the Mondego Estuary (Portugal). Monthly samples were carried out during three consecutive years: 2003 characterized as a regular temperate year concerning precipitation and river flow, and an extremely dry period during 2004-2005. The spatial and temporal structure of the biological data was evaluated by a three-mode principal component analysis (PCA), which allowed us to distinguish three distinct ecological areas based on their biological composition and their relationship with hydrologic parameters. The severe drought in 2004-2005 was responsible for spatial shifts in the estuary regarding zooplankton community and interannual variability, with an increase in abundance and diversity during the period of low freshwater flow. This freshwater flow regime influenced the composition of the zooplankton community at the most upstream section of Mondego estuary (zone 3), with a replacement of the freshwater community by one predominantly dominated by estuarine organisms. The occurrence of such estuarine community contributed to the increase in zooplankton abundance which is ascribed to the estuarine species Acartia tonsa. The comparison with previous data obtained for this estuarine ecosystem, demonstrated the occurrence of a different scenario at times of high freshwater flow, being defined the existence of two sub-estuarine systems, the north and south arm, presenting the south one the highest values of abundance.

  14. Past climate variability inferred from statistical processing of documentary data: a case study on extreme meteorological events in western central France from 1500 to 2000 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poirier, Clément; Chaumillon, Eric; Audé, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    Recent human-induced climate changes are expected to have an impact on extreme events including shifts in storm tracks, heavier precipitations and more severe droughts (Planton, 2008). Although climate models successfully describe the past mean climate variability, they often fail to correctly reproduce such extreme events, mainly because of a low spatial and temporal resolution (Sánchez et al., 2004). Reports of extreme meteorological events gathered from documentary archives are be useful to fill this gap, and would also provide insights into local climatic variations (Leijonhufvud et al., 2008; Rodrigo, 2008; Wheeler, 2006). In this study, a local text book published by Audé (2006) was used as a source of climatic data. It consists of a list of extreme meteorological events recorded in historical archives (diaries mainly) in western central France, along the Bay of Biscay. From the book, 284 extreme meteorological events that occurred between 1500 and 2000 were selected. A presence-absence matrix was built, the events being classified in 7 distinct categories by Audé. A preliminary multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis) was used to group these categories into 4 classes of events. First axis (22.3% of explained variance) discriminated the events related to temperature, with frosts and snowfalls on one side, versus gales and storms on the other side. Second axis (18.5% of explained variance) discriminated the events related to precipitation, with floods and rainfalls on one side (humid), versus droughts on the other (dry). For each class, a 29-year running mean was computed to convert binary qualitative data to semi-quantitative curves. A spectral analysis was also performed on the same binary data to detect potential climatic cycles. Despite the randomness of the historical records reported in this book, that much relies on the subjective perception of meteorological events by past witnesses, the results obtained are consistent with existing data

  15. Adapting to extreme events related to natural variability and climate change: the imperative of coupling technology with strong regulation and governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kythreotis, A P; Mercer, T G; Frostick, L E

    2013-09-03

    In recent years there has been an increase in extreme events related to natural variability (such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes) and climate change (such as flooding and more extreme weather). Developing innovative technologies is crucial in making society more resilient to such events. However, little emphasis has been placed on the role of human decision-making in maximizing the positive impacts of technological developments. This is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate adaptation options and the privatization of existing infrastructure, which can leave people exposed to increasing risk. This work examines the need for more robust government regulation and legislation to complement developments and innovations in technology in order to protect communities against such extreme events.

  16. Variability of Extreme Events in East Asia and their Dynamical Control: A Comparison Between Observation and Two High-Resolution Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C. H.; Chen, C. A.; Hsu, H. H.; Hirschi, J.; New, A.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is submitted to a strong seasonal monsoon system, with dry winters and wet summers. Each season can be submitted to extreme weather events such as long drought spells or extreme daily rainfall. Because this region is densely populated, the understanding and predictability of such events is a major subject of concern in the framework of global warming scenario. In this study we investigate the occurrence of the two (above mentioned) extreme events. We focus on their variability and the large-scale atmospheric (+ STT) patterns associated with these events. We use APHRODITE and PERSIANN observation, along with outputs from 2 high resolution (0.5 degree) global climate model (GCM): HadGEM3-GC2 (MetOffice, UK; fully coupled with ORCA025) and HiRAM-C192 (GFDL, USA; forced by prescribed SST). We use different approaches (composites and correlation fields) to highlight the main patterns and mechanisms that control the variability of extremes. We focus on the 1975-2005 historical period. Despite some biases, models can reproduce the signal of extreme events and their dynamical control. Results show a strong control of the land-sea heat contrast along with a significant impact of the monsoon winds system. The SST (which translate the moisture source) does not have a significant impact when considering short terms (monthly) variability but has stronger impact in terms of internannual variability. This work is then extend to end of century projection with the two GCM to investigate the major changes in the large scale dynamics and how it can impact extreme weather events.

  17. Decadal-scale Climate Variability on the Central Iranian Plateau Spanning the So-called 4.2 ka BP Drought Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolin, S.; Walker, R. T.; Henderson, G. M.; Maxfield, L.; Ersek, V.; Sloan, A.; Talebian, M.; Fattahi, M.; Nezamdoust, J.

    2015-12-01

    The influence of climate on the growth and development of ancient civilizations throughout the Holocene remains a topic of heated debate. The 4.2 ka BP global-scale mid-to-low latitude aridification event (Walker et al., 2012) in particular has incited various correlation proposals. Some authors suggest that this event may have led to the collapse of the Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia, one of the first empires in human history, as well as to changes among other Early Bronze Age societies dependent on cereal agriculture (eg. Staubwasser and Weiss, 2006). Other authors remain doubtful of the impact of environmental factors on the collapse of past societies (eg. Middleton, 2012). While coincident timing of an environmental event with archeological evidence does not necessitate a causation, a comprehensive understanding of climate variability in the ancient Near East is nonetheless an essential component to resolving the full history of early human settlements. Paleoclimate data on the Central Iranian Plateau, a region rich with ancient history, is exceptionally sparse compared to other areas. Many karst locations are found throughout the region, however, setting the stage for the development of several high-resolution, accurate and precisely-dated climate proxy records if a correlation between the chemistry of semi-arid speleothem samples and climate is resolved. Here we present a 5.1-3.7 ka BP record of decadal-scale stalagmite stable isotope and trace metal variability. The stalagmite was collected in Gol-e zard cave (35.8oN, 52.0oE), ~100 km NE of Tehran on the southern flank of the Alborz mountain range (2530masl). The area currently receives ~270mm mean annual precipitation, with more than 90% of precipitation falling within the wet season (November-May). We use GNIP data from Tehran and local and regional meteorological data to resolve the large-scale mechanisms forcing isotopic variations in rainwater over Gol-e zard cave. We discuss possible transformation of

  18. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  20. Climate variability: Picking apart climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris

    2017-10-01

    Data and model-based evidence suggests that future weather patterns will be more complex than simply those of the past plus background warming. Now research offers physical explanations of how short-term climate variability might adjust.

  1. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  2. Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

    CERN Document Server

    Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

    2007-01-01

    Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

  3. Mirador - Climate Variability and Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. NASA's role in climate variability study is centered around providing the global scale observational data sets on oceans and...

  4. Changes of Extreme Climate Events in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Avotniece, Z; Klavins, M; Rodinovs, V

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climate events are increasingly recognized as a threat to human health, agriculture, forestry and other sectors. To assess the occurrence and impacts of extreme climate events, we have investigated the changes of indexes characterizing positive and negative temperature extremes and extreme precipitation as well as the spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events in Latvia. Trend analysis of long–term changes in the frequency of extreme climate events demonst...

  5. Climatic variability and human impact during the last 2000 years in western Mesoamerica: evidence of late Classic (AD 600-900) and Little Ice Age drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Ramírez, A.; Caballero, M.; Roy, P.; Ortega, B.; Vázquez-Castro, G.; Lozano-García, S.

    2015-09-01

    We present results of analysis of biological (diatoms and ostracodes) and non-biological (Ti, Ca / Ti, total inorganic carbon, magnetic susceptibility) variables from an 8.8 m long, high-resolution (~ 20 yr sample-1) laminated sediment sequence from Lake Santa María del Oro (SMO), western Mexico. This lake lies at a sensitive location between the dry climates of northern Mexico, under the influence of the North Pacific subtropical high-pressure cell and the moister climates of central Mexico, under the influence of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone and the North American monsoon (NAM). The sequence covers the last 2000 years and provides evidence of two periods of human impact in the catchment, shown by increases in the diatom Achnanthidium minutissimum. The first from AD 100 to 400 (Early Classic) is related to the shaft and chamber tombs cultural tradition in western Mexico, and the second is related to Post-Classic occupation from AD 1100 to 1300. Both periods correspond to relatively wet conditions. Three dry intervals are identified from increased carbonate and the presence of ostracodes and aerophilous Eolimna minima. The first, from AD 500 to 1000 (most intense during the late Classic, from AD 600 to 800), correlates with the end of the shaft and chamber tradition in western Mexico after ca. AD 600. This late Classic dry period is the most important climatic signal in the Mesoamerican region during the last 2000 years, and has been recorded at several sites from Yucatan to the Pacific coast. In the Yucatan area, this dry interval has been related with the demise of the Maya culture at the end of the Classic (AD 850 to 950). The last two dry events (AD 1400 to 1550 and 1690 to 1770) correspond with the onset of, and the late, Little Ice Age, and follow largely the Spörer and Maunder minima in solar radiation. The first of these intervals (AD 1400 to 1550) shows the most intense signal over western Mexico; however this pattern is

  6. Mid-Late Holocene climate variability and fire events in a High Atlantic mountain area in NW Iberia (Picos de Europa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Fernández, Jesus; Nieuwendam, Alexandre; Oliva, Marc; Lopes, Vera; Cruces, Anabela; Conceição Freitas, Maria; Janeiro, Ana; López-Sáez, José Antonio; Gallinar, David; García-Hernández, Cristina

    2016-04-01

    In this contribution we present data from a 182 cm-long sedimentary sequence collected in the mid-altitude area of Belbín, a depression dammed by a moraine during the Last Glaciation in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain), in order to reconstruct the environmental changes and the conditioning factors of these changes occurred during the Mid-Late Holocene in this mountain area. The uppermost 60 cm of the sediments have been studied using a multi-proxy analysis including the texture, the organic matter content, the micromorphology of the quartz grains, and the concentration of charcoal particles. The geochronological framework of the environmental and climatic events for the Mid-late Holocene was established with three AMS 14C dates. During the last 6.7 ky cal BP a sequence of environmental changes took place in Belbin area driven by both warmer (between 6.7-5, 3.7-3, 2.6-1.1, 0.87-0.51 and since 0.01 ky cal BP) and colder stages (between 5-3.7, 3-2.6, 1.1-0.87 and 0.51 to 0.01 ky cal BP). The warmer stages were defined by the prevalence of chemical weathering of the quartz grains and relative increases of the C/N ratio. Conversely, during colder stages physical weathering of the quartz grains particles prevailed and the C/N values were lower. During the Late Holocene the sequence shows a progressive increase in the organic matter content, which may be associated with higher temperatures. Higher or lower concentration of charcoal particles according to warmer or colder climatic conditions is not detected, so the fires that have occurred in the area were likely to be related to human-induced fire management for grazing purposes. The period with the most frequent fire events occurred between 3.5 and 3 ky cal BP during the Bronze Age. Other significant peaks of charcoal particles occurred at ca. 2.6, 0.71 and 0.36 ky cal BP. This study shows evidence that the environmental changes occurred during the Mid-Late Holocene in this area

  7. Climate variability and the European agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    By 2050, the global demand for maize, wheat and other major crops is expected to grow sharply. To meet this challenge, agricultural systems have to increase substantially their production. However, the expanding world population, coupled with a decline of arable land per person, and the variability in global climate, are obstacles to achieving the increasing demand. Creating a resilient agriculture system requires the incorporation of preparedness measures against weather-related events, which can trigger disruptive risks such as droughts. This study examines the influence of large-scale climate variability on agriculture production applying a robust decision-making tool named fast-and-frugal trees (FFT). We created FFTs using a dataset of crop production and indices of climate variability: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our main goal is to predict the occurrence of below-average crop production, using these two indices at different lead times. Initial results indicated that SOI and NAO have strong links with European low sugar beet production. For some areas, the FFTs were able to detect below-average productivity events six months before harvesting with hit rate and predictive positive value higher than 70%. We found that shorter lead times, such as three months before harvesting, have the highest predictive skill. Additionally, we observed that the responses of low production events to the phases of the NAO and SOI vary spatially and seasonally. Through the comprehension of the relationship between large scale climate variability and European drought related agricultural impact, this study reflects on how this information could potentially improve the management of the agricultural sector by coupling the findings with seasonal forecasting system of crop production.

  8. Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

    2017-01-01

    Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from...

  9. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  10. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  11. A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sura, Philip

    2011-07-01

    One of the most important problems in meteorology, physical oceanography, climatology, and related fields is the understanding and dynamical description of multi-scale interactions. Multi-scale interactions are closely related to extreme events in climate and, therefore, of great practical importance. Here an extreme event is defined in terms of the non-Gaussian tail (sometimes also called a weather or climate regime) of the data's probability density function (PDF), as opposed to the definition in extreme value theory, where the statistics of time series maxima (and minima) in a given time interval are studied. The non-Gaussian approach used here allows for a dynamical view of extreme events in weather and climate, going beyond the solely mathematical arguments of extreme value theory. Extreme events are by definition scarce, but they can have a significant impact on people and countries in the affected regions. Understanding extremes has become an important objective in weather/climate variability research because weather and climate risk assessment depends on knowing the tails of PDFs. In recent years, new tools that make use of advanced stochastic theory have evolved to evaluate extreme events and the physics that govern these events. Stochastic methods are ideal to study multi-scale interactions and extreme events because they link vastly different time and spatial scales. One theory attributes extreme anomalies to stochastically forced dynamics, where, to model nonlinear interactions, the strength of the stochastic forcing depends on the flow itself (multiplicative noise). This closure assumption follows naturally from the general form of the equations of motion. Because stochastic theory makes clear and testable predictions about non-Gaussian variability, the multiplicative noise hypothesis can be verified by analyzing the detailed non-Gaussian statistics of atmospheric and oceanic variability. This review paper discusses the theoretical framework

  12. The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence from the IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports indicate that extreme climate events are increasing in many regions of the world. Interestingly, the nature and causes of the changes in extremes may be expressed differently for the global and regional scales, and also amongst climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). For instance, over the last several decades the temperature probability density function on the global scale exhibits a mean shift to the warmer side, as opposed to a change in it's variability. Conversely, the interannual variability of precipitation is intensifying on the regional scale, especially over the U.S. during spring. Although the statistical characteristics of the temperature and precipitation changes may have a varied expression they both contribute to the potential for increases in extreme events. The causes and physical mechanisms for the intensification of mean global temperature and regional precipitation variability are explored using observationally constrained datasets and non-traditional climate model approaches.

  13. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  14. A General Perspective of Extreme Events in Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sura, Philip

    2010-05-01

    Extreme events are by definition scarce, but they can have a significant impact on people and countries in the affected regions. An extreme event is most commonly defined in terms of the non-Gaussian tail (sometimes called a climate regime) of the data's probability density function (PDF). Understanding extremes has become an important objective in weather/climate variability research because climate and weather risk assessment depends on knowing the tails of PDFs. In recent years, new tools that make use of advanced stochastic theory have evolved to evaluate extreme events and the physics that govern these events. One theory attributes extreme anomalies to stochastically forced dynamics, where, to model nonlinear interactions, the strength of the stochastic forcing depends on the flow itself (multiplicative noise). This closure assumption follows naturally from the general form of the equations of motion. Because stochastic theory makes clear and testable predictions about non-Gaussian variability, the multiplicative noise hypothesis can be verified by analyzing the detailed non-Gaussian statistics of atmospheric and oceanic variability. This presentation discusses the theoretical framework and some recent developments in stochastic modeling of extreme events in climate.

  15. Climate variability and change: a perspective from the oceania region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Tom

    2014-12-01

    This brief review identifies seven key science questions in relation to climate variability and change and examines recent research within the Australian and Pacific context: 1. How do the key processes controlling climate variability and predictability operate? 2. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future? 3. How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions? 4. What are the best projection methods? 5. What are the sea-level changes now and in the future; and how will these impact the coasts? 6. How to have significant benefits on climate service delivery and environmental management? 7. What are the best methods for assessing climate change risks, vulnerability and adaptation options?

  16. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

  17. Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

  18. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  19. Three duplication events and variable molecular evolution ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Three duplication events and variable molecular evolution characteristics involved in multiple GGPS genes of six Solanaceae species. FENG LI CHUNYANG WEI CHAN QIAO ZHENXI CHEN PENG WANG PAN WEI RAN WANG LIFENG JIN JUN YANG FUCHENG LIN ZHAOPENG LUO. RESEARCH NOTE Volume 95 Issue ...

  20. Study of event shape variables at LEP

    CERN Document Server

    Sarkar, Subir

    1997-01-01

    We present the LEP results on the study of the hadronic event shape variables. Excellent detector performance and improved theoretical calculations make it possible to study quantum chromodynamics with small experimental and theoretical uncertainties. QCD predictions describe data well at energies above the Z peak.

  1. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  2. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of

  3. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  4. Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethke, Ingo; Outten, Stephen; Otterå, Odd Helge; Hawkins, Ed; Wagner, Sebastian; Sigl, Michael; Thorne, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability. Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios. Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) under RCP4.5 (ref. ). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ~50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments.

  5. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove Ecosystem in Tumbes, Peru. The mangrove ecosystem of Tumbes plays a pivotal role in providing protection against tides, winds and storm surges, and habitat for a number of fish species. The native coastal communities of Tumbes rely on artisanal ...

  6. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As noted by the Bureau of Meteorology, Canada, to examine whether such extremes have changed over time a variety of extreme climate indices can be defined, such as the number of days per year ... was already experiencing variability in its climate pattern, as such an information would be very useful for decision making.

  7. Experiences on climate variability education from an empirical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

    2015-04-01

    Education materials based on investigations are prepared for teaching climate matters using graphics representation, data analysis and GrADS software. An example of how climate teleconnection are included in the teaching activities would be presented. The goal is for students to learn about how climate variability and extreme events over a region are connected to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation from an empirical perspective. Exercises and questions are prepared for collaborative and interactive learning considering the visualization and workshop activities included in the Moodle learning platform.

  8. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  9. Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, David M

    2009-01-01

    Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

  10. Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Cimatoribus

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets, either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

  11. Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oremus, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

  12. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arshad, Muhammad; Kächele, Harald; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Mehmood, Yasir; Müller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated

  13. Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kyuma

    1Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya. 2Department of Animal ... A study was conducted to determine the association of climate variability, Prosopis juliflora spread, and other ...... Pastoralists as Shrewd Managers of Risk and Resilience in the Horn of ...

  14. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  15. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  16. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, Milena; Hirota, Marina; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2013-08-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle and is projected to increase rainfall variability. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in rainfall can have neutral or even positive effects on tree cover in the dry tropics. In South America, tree cover in dry lands is higher in areas with high year-to-year variability in rainfall. This is consistent with evidence from case studies suggesting that in these areas rare wet episodes are essential for opening windows of opportunity where massive tree recruitment can overwhelm disturbance effects, allowing the establishment of extensive woodlands. In Australia, wet extremes have similar effects, but the net effect of rainfall variability is overwhelmed by negative effects of extreme dry years. In Africa, effects of rainfall variability are neutral for dry lands. It is most likely that differences in herbivore communities and fire regimes contribute to regulating tree expansion during wet extremes. Our results illustrate that increasing climatic variability may affect ecosystem services in contrasting, and sometimes surprising, ways. Expansion of dry tropical tree cover during extreme wet events may decrease grassland productivity but enhance carbon sequestration, soil nutrient retention and biodiversity.

  17. Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseaux, Cecile

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (pphytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

  18. Canopy interception variability in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalicz, Péter; Herceg, András; Kisfaludi, Balázs; Csáki, Péter; Gribovszki, Zoltán

    2017-04-01

    Tree canopies play a rather important role in forest hydrology. They intercept significant amounts of precipitation and evaporate back into the atmosphere during and after precipitation event. This process determines the net intake of forest soils and so important factor of hydrological processes in forested catchments. Average amount of interception loss is determined by the storage capacity of tree canopies and the rainfall distribution. Canopy storage capacity depends on several factors. It shows strong correlation with the leaf area index (LAI). Some equations are available to quantify this dependence. LAI shows significant variability both spatial and temporal scale. There are several methods to derive LAI from remote sensed data which helps to follow changes of it. In this study MODIS sensor based LAI time series are used to estimate changes of the storage capacity. Rainfall distribution derived from the FORESEE database which is developed for climate change related impact studies in the Carpathian Basin. It contains observation based precipitation data for the past and uses bias correction method for the climate projections. In this study a site based estimation is outworked for the Sopron Hills area. Sopron Hills is located at the eastern foothills of the Alps in Hungary. The study site, namely Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment, is located in the central valley of the Sopron Hills. Long-term interception measurements are available in several forest sites in Hidegvíz Valley. With the combination of the ground based observations, MODIS LAI datasets a simple function is developed to describe the average yearly variations in canopy storage. Interception measurements and the CREMAP evapotranspiration data help to calibrate a simple interception loss equation based on Merriam's work. Based on these equation and the FORESEE bias corrected precipitation data an estimation is outworked for better understanding of the feedback of forest crown on hydrological

  19. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  20. Water Resource Variability and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingkui Li

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A significant challenge posed by changing climates is how water cycling and surficial and subsurface water availability will be affected at global and regional scales. Such alterations are critical as they often lead to increased vulnerability in ecosystems and human society. Understanding specifically how climate change affects water resource variability in different locations is of critical importance to sustainable development in different parts of the world. The papers included in this special issue focus on three broad perspectives associated with water resource variability and climate change. Six papers employ remote sensing, meteorological station-based observational data, and tree-ring records to empirically determine how water resources have been changing over historical time periods. Eight of the contributions focus on modeling approaches to determine how known processes are likely to manifest themselves as climate shifts over time. Two others focus on human perceptions and adaptation strategies in the midst of unstable or unsettled water availability. The findings and methods presented in this collection of papers provide important contributions to the increased study and awareness of climate change on water resources.

  1. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Deepak K; Gerber, James S; MacDonald, Graham K; West, Paul C

    2015-01-22

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  2. Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Sharon E.

    2017-09-01

    This review examines several aspects of the climate of eastern Africa. The climatic commonality throughout the region is the frequent occurrence of drought severe enough to incapacitate the population. Because of recent droughts and evidence of disastrous, long-term climatic change, the region has become a major focus of meteorological research. This review covers six relevant topics: climatic regionalization, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal variability, interannual variability, recent trends, and seasonal forecasting. What emerges is a markedly different view of the factors modulating rainfall, the dynamics associated with the seasons, and the character of teleconnections within the region and the interrelationships between the various rainy seasons. Some of the most important points are the following. (1) The paradigm of two rainy seasons resulting from the biannual equatorial passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is inadequate. (2) The "long rains" should not be treated as a single season, as character, causal factors, and teleconnections are markedly different in each month. (3) The long rains have been declining continuously in recent decades. (4) The Madden-Julian Oscillation has emerged as a factor in interannual and intraseasonal variability, but the relative strength of Pacific and Indian Ocean anomalies plays a major role in the downward trend. (5) Factors governing the short rains are nonstationary. (6) Droughts have become longer and more intense and tend to continue across rainy seasons, and their causes are not adequately understood. (7) Atmospheric variables provide more reliable seasonal forecasts than the factors traditionally considered in forecast models, such as sea surface temperatures and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  3. Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Poleo

    2016-01-01

    Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generati...

  4. Water Isotope Variability Across Individual Precipitation Events in Borneo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosma, C.; Moerman, J. W.; Cobb, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    The composition of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in rainwater (measured as δ18O and δD) provides vital information about current hydrological dynamics, and forms the basis for many paleoclimate reconstructions of hydroclimate variability. However, many factors - both local and remote - govern water isotope fractionation, complicating the interpretation of water isotope records. While Raleigh distillation serves as a key first-order driver of the well-noted "amount effect", post-condensation evaporative processes are an important influence on intra-event isotope variations (e.g. Moerman, et al. 2013). To further resolve the processes driving this variability, rainwater isotopes from Gunung Mulu National Park in northern Borneo (4°N, 115 °E) were analyzed at one-minute intervals across nine rain events in 2012. To assess the influence of large-scale, remote fractionation processes versus those that act locally, our intra-event time series was compared to daily-resolved isotope records over the same time interval. We quantify a large range of water isotopic compositions over the sampling period (-13.1‰ to 0.2‰ in δ18O and -88.3‰ to -1.2‰ in δD). There is appreciable evidence for evaporative enrichment at our site, with δ18O vs. δD slopes significantly less than eight - the slope of the Global Meteoric Water Line. Large differences in the shape of the intra-event profile, ranging from monotonically increasing to "V-shaped" (e.g. Celle-Jeanton, et al. 2004) to monotonically decreasing isotopic values indicate that different precipitation regimes have a profound impact on water isotope evolution through a precipitation event. As such, we use a suite of meteorological data including in-situ observations, satellite imagery, model reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and NOAA HYSPLIT water vapor back-trajectories to provide an interpretive framework for the observed intra-event isotopic variability. Our study

  5. Interpolation of climate variables and temperature modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Lohar, Debasish; Pal, Babita

    2012-01-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and modeling are becoming powerful tools in agricultural research and natural resource management. This study proposes an empirical methodology for modeling and mapping of the monthly and annual air temperature using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study area is Gangetic West Bengal and its neighborhood in the eastern India, where a number of weather systems occur throughout the year. Gangetic West Bengal is a region of strong heterogeneous surface with several weather disturbances. This paper also examines statistical approaches for interpolating climatic data over large regions, providing different interpolation techniques for climate variables' use in agricultural research. Three interpolation approaches, like inverse distance weighted averaging, thin-plate smoothing splines, and co-kriging are evaluated for 4° × 4° area, covering the eastern part of India. The land use/land cover, soil texture, and digital elevation model are used as the independent variables for temperature modeling. Multiple regression analysis with standard method is used to add dependent variables into regression equation. Prediction of mean temperature for monsoon season is better than winter season. Finally standard deviation errors are evaluated after comparing the predicted temperature and observed temperature of the area. For better improvement, distance from the coastline and seasonal wind pattern are stressed to be included as independent variables.

  6. Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bellprat, Omar; Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds...

  7. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  8. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  9. Implication of Climate Variability for Latex Exudates F Rubber Tree ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study aimed at: assessing the relationship between latex exudates and climate variability; identifying the most critical climate element(s) in the yield variability of rubber; and examining the predictability of rubber yield based on climate variability. Fifteen years data was collected from documented, but unpublished, ...

  10. Mediterranean climate variability during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.S.L. CASFORD

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a study on four high sedimentation-rate marine cores with suppressed bioturbation effects, recovered along the northern margin of the eastern Mediterranean. We demonstrate that this region, central to the development of modern civilisation, was substantially affected throughout the Holocene by a distinct cycle of cooling events on the order of 2o C. In the best-preserved cases the onset of these events appears particularly abrupt, within less than a century. The cooling events typically lasted several centuries, and there are compelling indications that they were associated with increased aridity in the Levantine/NE African sector (Rossignol-Strick, 1995; 1998; Alley et al., 1997; Hassan, 1986; 1996; 1997a,b; McKim Malville et al., 1998. Several of these episodes appear coincident with cultural reorganisations, with indigenous developments (eg. cattle domestication, new technologies and population migrations and fusion of peoples and ideas (Hassan, 1986; 1996; 1997a,b; McKim Malville, 1998. We infer that climatic events of a likely high-latitude origin (O’Brien et al., 1995; Bond et al., 1997; Mayewski et al., 1997; Alley et al., 1997 caused cooling and aridity in and around the eastern Mediterranean via a direct atmospheric link, and therefore played an important role in the development of modern civilisation.

  11. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  12. Flexible stocking as a strategy for enhancing ranch profitability in the face of a changing and variable climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...

  13. Climate variability, agricultural livelihoods and food security in Semiarid Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia S. Mesquita

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are among the main threats to socio-ecological sustainability in many semi-arid regions of the world and are of special concern to resource-poor family farmers. In the Brazilian semi-arid region, high levels of social vulnerability in addition to predicted climate events can adversely affect subsistence crops and other cultivated areas with serious consequences for rural food security. An extreme drought that started in 2010 left 174 (of 184 municipalities in the northeastern state of Ceará, Brazil, in a situation of emergency in 2012. During the period of drought, we studied household production characteristics, sources of water for domestic consumption, perception of temperature change and the relationship of those variables with perceived food security. Food security was associated to the presence of piped water and to the diversity of livestock owned by the household. In addition to the importance of observing the role of those variables in public policies related to food security and regional development in the semi-arid region of Brazil, we also highlight the need of understanding the local context where those policies are implemented and the types of local adaptations being performed during periods of shock, which will be recurrent in a scenario of climate change.

  14. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  15. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...

  16. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grewe, Volker [Institut fuer Physik der Atmosphaere, DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling (Germany)

    2007-03-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO{sub x} emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere

  17. Comparing farmers' perception of climate change and variability with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Perception of climate change and variability supported by local knowledge has helped to advance understanding of climate change and its impacts on agricultural land-use systems. This study compares farmers' perception of climate change and variability in four communities of the Upper East Region of Ghana. Using a ...

  18. Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Poleo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.

  19. Climate Change : Behavioral Responses from Extreme Events and Delayed Damages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, G.; Casari, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occurs after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

  20. Impacts of climate variability and change on beekeeping productivity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nonetheless beekeepers face serious constraints and interventions are needed to strengthen the capacity of beekeepers to adapt through integrating climate services with available indigenous knowledge and local practices. Key Words: Beekeeping, climate change and variability, vulnerability and adaptation ...

  1. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  2. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  3. Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

    2015-04-01

    Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

  4. The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guimaraes Nobre, G.G.N.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received little attention. We investigated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic

  5. Effect of climate variability on sugarcane breeding in Nigeria | Ishaq ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect of climate variability on sugarcane breeding in Nigeria. ... Flowering in sugarcane (Saccharum species) is poor and variable at many tropical locations due to sub-optimal photoperiod. The situation is often compounded by ... sugar production in Nigeria. Keywords: Climate Change, Variability and Sugarcane Breeding ...

  6. How birds cope physiologically and behaviourally with extreme climatic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingfield, John C; Pérez, Jonathan H; Krause, Jesse S; Word, Karen R; González-Gómez, Paulina L; Lisovski, Simeon; Chmura, Helen E

    2017-06-19

    As global climate change progresses, the occurrence of potentially disruptive climatic events such as storms are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity resulting in higher mortality and reduced reproductive success. What constitutes an extreme climatic event? First we point out that extreme climatic events in biological contexts can occur in any environment. Focusing on field and laboratory data on wild birds we propose a mechanistic approach to defining and investigating what extreme climatic events are and how animals cope with them at physiological and behavioural levels. The life cycle of birds is made up of life-history stages such as migration, breeding and moult that evolved to match a range of environmental conditions an individual might expect during the year. When environmental conditions deteriorate and deviate from the expected range then the individual must trigger coping mechanisms (emergency life-history stage) that will disrupt the temporal progression of life-history stages, but enhance survival. Using the framework of allostasis, we argue that an extreme climatic event in biological contexts can be defined as when the cumulative resources available to an individual are exceeded by the sum of its energetic costs-a state called allostatic overload. This allostatic overload triggers the emergency life-history stage that temporarily allows the individual to cease regular activities in an attempt to survive extreme conditions. We propose that glucocorticoid hormones play a major role in orchestrating coping mechanisms and are critical for enduring extreme climatic events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. Challenges in probabilistic event attribution in African climates (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, F. E.; Allen, M. R.; Massey, N.

    2013-12-01

    Global climate change is almost certainly affecting the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather and hydrological events around the world. However, whether and to what extent the occurrence of an extreme weather event or the impacts of such an event on, agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods can be attributed to climate change remains a challenging question. With the introduction of the work programme on loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change in developing countries on the UNFCCC agenda finding answers to this question has become even more important. Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) provides a method of evaluating the extent to which human-induced climate change is affecting localised weather events and impacts of such events that relies on good observations as well as climate modelling. The overall approach is to simulate, with as realistic a model as possible and accounting as far as possible for modelling uncertainties, both the statistics of observed weather and the statistics of the weather that would have occurred had specific external drivers of climate change been absent. The majority of studies applying PEA have focused on quantifying attributable risk, with changes in risk depending on an assumption of 'all other things being equal', including natural drivers of climate change and vulnerability. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) to human-induced climate change is defined as the change in the probability of an event occurring due to human influence on the climate compared to the corresponding probability in a world not influenced by humans. We will present first results of a recently started project on 'Attributing the impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather in Africa' applying PEA, which will provide an important step towards quantifying the link between climate change and extreme weather in Africa. However, especially in an African context, with the strong influence of global sea surface

  8. Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2017-04-01

    The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

  9. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    natural causes, and to attribute the significant changes to greenhouse gases or aerosols. As far India is concerned by far the two most important meteoro- logical events which occur over the Indian sub-continent are a) south west monsoon or summer...

  10. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  11. Effects of climatic variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of projecting the response of forests to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)...

  12. Essential climatic variables estimation with satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolotii, A.; Kussul, N.; Shelestov, A.; Lavreniuk, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    According to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 Leaf Area Index (LAI) is considered as one of essential climatic variables. This variable represents the amount of leaf material in ecosystems and controls the links between biosphere and atmosphere through various processes and enables monitoring and quantitative assessment of vegetation state. LAI has added value for such important global resources monitoring tasks as drought mapping and crop yield forecasting with use of data from different sources [1-2]. Remote sensing data from space can be used to estimate such biophysical parameter at regional and national scale. High temporal satellite imagery is usually required to capture main parameters of crop growth [3]. Sentinel-2 mission launched in 2015 be ESA is a source of high spatial and temporal resolution satellite imagery for mapping biophysical parameters. Products created with use of automated Sen2-Agri system deployed during Sen2-Agri country level demonstration project for Ukraine will be compared with our independent results of biophysical parameters mapping. References Shelestov, A., Kolotii, A., Camacho, F., Skakun, S., Kussul, O., Lavreniuk, M., & Kostetsky, O. (2015, July). Mapping of biophysical parameters based on high resolution EO imagery for JECAM test site in Ukraine. In 2015 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 1733-1736 Kolotii, A., Kussul, N., Shelestov, A., Skakun, S., Yailymov, B., Basarab, R., ... & Ostapenko, V. (2015). Comparison of biophysical and satellite predictors for wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine. The International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 40(7), 39-44. Kussul, N., Lemoine, G., Gallego, F. J., Skakun, S. V., Lavreniuk, M., & Shelestov, A. Y. Parcel-Based Crop Classification in Ukraine Using Landsat-8 Data and Sentinel-1A Data. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing , 9 (6), 2500-2508.

  13. Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan

    2017-04-01

    Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems Evidence is growing that climate variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean has increased over the last century, culminating in such events as the record-breaking El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 and the unusually persistent 2014/15 North Pacific Ocean heat wave known as "The Blob." Of particular concern is that rising variability could increase synchrony within and among North Pacific ecosystems, which could reduce the diversity of biological responses to climate (i.e. the "portfolio effect"), diminish resilience, and leave populations more prone to extirpation. To test this phenomenon, we use a network of multidecadal fish otolith growth-increment chronologies that were strongly correlated to records of winter (Jan-Mar) sea level. These biological and physical datasets spanned the California Current through the Gulf of Alaska. Synchrony was quantified as directional changes in running (31-year window) mean pairwise correlation within sea level and then within otolith time series. Synchrony in winter sea level at the nine stations with the longest records has increased by more than 40% over the 1950-2015 interval. Likewise, synchrony among the eight longest otolith chronologies has increased more than 100% over a comparable time period. These directional changes in synchrony are highly unlikely due to chance alone, as confirmed by comparing trends in observed data to those in simulated data (n = 10,000 iterations) with time series of identical number, length, and autocorrelation. Ultimately, this trend in rising synchrony may be linked to increased impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on mid-latitude ecosystems of North America, and may therefore reflect a much broader, global-scale signature.

  14. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aizebeokhai

    uncertainties in the characterisation of climate change induced groundwater impacts due largely to multi-scale local and ... Key words: Climate change, climate variability, hydrological systems, groundwater resources, potential impacts, vulnerability. ..... except where surface layers are of poor permeability and afford some ...

  15. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  16. Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Key words: Climate variability, crop yield and production, regional climate projections, South-western Nigeria. INTRODUCTION. The variability of the ... continuously facing an immediate risk of increased crop failure and loss of livestock. ... ral productivity may assist in proffering management strategies for a sustainable and ...

  17. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    This paper focuses on how men and women farmers perceive climatic variability in Idanre Local. Government Area of Ondo ... Keywords: Climatic Variability, Agricultural Production, Food Security, Rainfall and Farmers. Department of Geography .... The consequences of global warming include sea level rise and flooding of ...

  18. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aizebeokhai

    This paper attempts to assess the potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources availability and sustainability in Nigeria. Key words: Climate change, variability, hydrological systems, groundwater, potential impacts, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION. All life on Earth, water and energy resources, ...

  19. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.

  20. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Abstract. In Nigeria, farming still depends largely on nature and therefore, vulnerable to climate variability. Climate variability affects production in a number of ways such as uncertainties with the onset of the farming season, flooding and drought in some areas .Farmers have responded by using adaptation strategies.

  1. Interpreting the climatic effects on xylem functional traits in two Mediterranean oak species: the role of extreme climatic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Rita

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of i detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and ii exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport

  2. Thermal tolerance ranges and climate variability : A comparison between bivalves from differing climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2007-01-01

    The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal

  3. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  4. Bipolar ice core records of millennial scale climate variability : an overview of recent findings (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.

    2013-12-01

    Greenland and Antarctic ice cores offer high resolution records of the imprints of millennial scale climate variability on polar climate, aerosol deposition, and atmospheric composition (Wolff et al, QSR, 2010). Improved chronologies and spatial coverage provide new data against which the mechanisms involved in millennial variability and simulated by climate models can be tested. We will first discuss the bipolar sequence of events based on the new AICC2012 chronology, during the last climatic cycle (Veres et al, Clim. Past, 2013; Bazin et al, Clim. Past, 2013). The matrix of ice cores allows to investigate regional differences in the cross-Greenland fingerprints of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (Guillevic et al, Clim. Past, 2013) and the circum-Antarctic signature of their Antarctic Isotopic Maxima counterpart (Buiron et al, QSR, 2012). While Heinrich events have long remained difficult to identify in ice core records, a step change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations has been identified during Heinrich 4 (Ahn et al, GRL, 2012), challenging the gradual CO2 emissions expected from the classical bipolar see-saw explanation. High resolution Antarctic data also reveal centennial to millennial variability during interglacial periods and glacial inceptions which bears similarities with glacial Antarctic Isotopic Maxima, questioning the source and amplifiers of glacial millennial variability. New investigations of the magnitude and recurrence of millennial variability based on multiple long Antarctic ice core records are expected to provide further hints on the interplay between mean climatic states and this millennial variability.

  5. Genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensek, Dusan; Garza, John Carlos; Crivelli, Alain J

    2017-02-08

    Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

    2011-05-01

    Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

  7. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall Events over Three Coastal Cities in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Adegoke, Jimmy; Abatan, Abayomi

    2016-04-01

    This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on the characteristics extreme events over three coastal cities in Africa (Lagos, Cape Town and Cairo), with a focus on widespread extreme events (WERE) over the cities. An ensemble of regional climate model (RCA4) simulations, forced with CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5) models under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), were analyzed for the study. All the simulations were obtained from CORDEX (www.cordex.org). In this study, we used 95th percentile of daily rainfall as the threshold of extreme events and the simultaneous occurrence of extreme events over 50 % of the city area as widespread extreme events (WERE). The RCA ensemble gives a realistic simulation of seasonal and intra-seasonal variability of extreme rainfall events over the cities. The model ensemble projects an increase in the intensity and frequency of grid-point extreme rainfall events, but a decrease in the frequency of the WEREs over the cities in the future (2031 - 2065). The magnitudes of the changes are higher for RCP 8.5 than for RCP 4.5. The associated changes in the atmospheric circulations will be discussed at the conference. The result of this study has application in minimizing the vulnerabilities of these coastal cities to climate change impacts.

  8. Climate Variations and Variability: Facts and Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolis, C.

    Ever since the realization, about 20 years ago, that the mild and predictable climate of the first half of our century was an anomaly within the climate's long and turbulent history, specialists, policy makers, and the general public feel increasingly concerned about the possible impacts of climatic change on an overpopulated and energy-thirsty society. Yet for all its importance, the share of this field in modern scientific literature is surprisingly slim. In this respect, the present book, which compiles the lectures given at the first International School of Climatology organized under the auspices of Ettore Majorana Center and NATO at Erice, Italy, in March 1980 constitutes a welcome contribution.

  9. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  10. Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

  11. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  12. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  13. Response of arid ecosystems to the Holocene climate variability along west and central Mediterranean gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaouadi, Sahbi; Combourieu Nebout, Nathalie; Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent

    2017-04-01

    Decadal to millennial climate variability is a common feature recorded by environmental series. However interconnections between climate forcing (i.e. insolation, thermohaline circulation) and large atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation, Monsoon) still remain poorly understood considering their respective impacts on the global climate mechanisms. In the Mediterranean area, joint climatic influences from high temperate and low subtropical latitudes result in a high sensitivity of ecosystems to climate changes and especially to extreme events. Several vegetation records illustrate millennial changes in Mediterranean. Nevertheless notable discrepancies in the environmental response arise between Mediterranean edges (east vs west, north vs south). The new paleoenvironmental record from Sebkha Boujmel (33°N, southern Tunisia) covers the last 8kyr and exhibits eight humid/arid fluctuations with cyclic expansion of the desert, related to Middle and Late Holocene rapid climate changes (RCC) occurring at a centennial scale. Sebkha Boujmel record is replaced in the wider context of west Mediterranean and northern hemisphere. Asynchronies and disparity of the Mediterranean RCC occurrence documents north-south and west-east climate gradients in the west Mediterranean and pinpoint Sebkha Boujmel as the single vegetation record tracing as many climate events during the last 8kyr. Indeed the high sensitivity of arid environments triggers the prompt reaction of the southern Tunisian vegetation to Holocene RCC however tenuous. Pattern of RCC geographical occurrence in west and central Mediterranean is interpreted in the light of climate forcings involved for the Holocene centennial variability.

  14. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

    2012-12-01

    With so many informal outreach and education venues across the world, leveraging them for climate education allows vast amounts of information to be translated to the public in a familiar setting through trusted local sources. One of the challenges is the development of an effective process for training informal educators and providing them with adequate support materials. The 'NASA Climate Day Kit', and its related training strategy for Earth Ambassadors, is designed to address some of these issues. The purpose of the NASA Climate Day project is to collect existing NASA climate education materials, assemble a cadre of informal educators, and provide professional development on the subject of climate change. This training is accomplished through a series of exercises, games, science talks and place-based training. After their training and immersion in climate-related content, participants develop and implement a climate event at their local informal education venue. Throughout their training the Earth Ambassadors are exposed to a wide array of climate related exercises and background content. Some of these include one-on-one science content talks with NASA scientists who study climate on a daily basis. This allows the Ambassador to have direct access to new cutting edge data and information. To complement the science talks, participants explore activities and games that can engage all ages at their climate event. During their training, they also explore the 'Climate Day Kit'. This Kit is an assemblage of climate-related materials created by various NASA groups. Key components of this Kit include data visualizations, articles, electronic reference material, science talks, NASA Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) climate materials, and examples of Climate Day events that have been conducted in the past. As an on-going resource and to use for their own climate event, each group of Earth Ambassadors has access to a dynamic website that hosts all of the science

  15. Within-Event and Between-Events Ground Motion Variability from Earthquake Rupture Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crempien, Jorge G. F.; Archuleta, Ralph J.

    2017-09-01

    Measurement of ground motion variability is essential to estimate seismic hazard. Over-estimation of variability can lead to extremely high annual hazard estimates of ground motion exceedance. We explore different parameters that affect the variability of ground motion such as the spatial correlations of kinematic rupture parameters on a finite fault and the corner frequency of the moment-rate spectra. To quantify the variability of ground motion, we simulate kinematic rupture scenarios on several vertical strike-slip faults and compute ground motion using the representation theorem. In particular, for the entire suite of rupture scenarios, we quantify the within-event and the between-events ground motion variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectra at several periods, at 40 stations—all approximately at an equal distance of 20 and 50 km from the fault. Both within-event and between-events ground motion variability increase when the slip correlation length on the fault increases. The probability density functions of ground motion tend to truncate at a finite value when the correlation length of slip decreases on the fault, therefore, we do not observe any long-tail distribution of peak ground acceleration when performing several rupture simulations for small correlation lengths. Finally, for a correlation length of 6 km, the within-event and between-events PGA log-normal standard deviations are 0.58 and 0.19, respectively, values slightly smaller than those reported by Boore et al. (Earthq Spectra, 30(3):1057-1085, 2014). The between-events standard deviation is consistently smaller than the within-event for all correlations lengths, a feature that agrees with recent ground motion prediction equations.

  16. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrick Berger

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain and Arcachon Bay (SW France. Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter.

  17. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Patricio A.; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc

    2013-01-01

    In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter. PMID:23959151

  18. Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2017-07-01

    The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

  19. Climatic control on the variability of flood distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Iacobellis

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the second order moments of flood peaks with respect to geomorphoclimatic basin characteristics was investigated. In particular, the behaviour of the coefficient of variation (Cv of the series of annual maximum floods was analysed with respect to its dependence on physically consistent quantities. The results achieved were in fairly good agreement with real world observed characteristics and interesting insights on the relationship between Cv and basin size were found. It appears that Cv is controlled mainly by the climate and by some water loss features. Many observations reported in the literature show a decrease of Cv with basin area A, usually ascribed to the limited spatial extent of extreme events, which leads to a decrease with area of the Cv of areal rainfall intensity. An increase of Cv with the area is also sometimes observed for small basins. Such different behaviours were accounted for by the concurrent effect on two parameters that affect the Cv (A relationship, representative of the way rainfall losses and effective rainfall intensity scale with the basin area. Keywords: floods, climate, coefficient of variation, scaling.

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gukurume Simbarashe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

  1. Influence of climate variability on large rivers runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nurtaev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In accordance with IPCC Report the influence of climate change on the water cycle will increase hydrologic variability by means of changing of precipitation patterns, melting of ice and change of runoff. Precipitation has increased in high northern latitudes and decreased in southern latitudes. This study presents an analysis of river runoffs trends in different climatic zones of the world in condition of climate change.

  2. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hope&shola

    deal with impacts of climate change and variability. Further, development initiatives at community level in semi arid areas should put more emphasis on water harvesting to ensure water storage for crops and livestock. Key words: Agriculture production, climate change, Kamenyanga village, Manyoni District, rainfall, Singida.

  3. Impact of climate variability on vector-borne disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    We will discuss the impact of climate variability on vector borne diseases and demonstrate that global climate teleconnections can be used to anticipate and forecast, in the case of Rift Valley fever, epidemics and epizootics. In this context we will examine significant worldwide weather anomalies t...

  4. Some aspects of climate variability in the north east Ethiopian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To date little work has been done on climate reconstruction in Tigray and Wollo, however, a number of ongoing studies in the area using palaeosoil analysis, archaeological techniques and lake level reconstruction will help reveal the magnitude of past climate variability in the region. On recent time scales, rainfall over ...

  5. Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and change have been implicated to have significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance in tropical sub-humid climatic zone. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain uncertain. In this study, records of crop yields and ...

  6. Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    East African pastoral adaptation and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data from decision-making processes and ecological data of the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area as an example. The paper uses integrated modeling, linking PHEWS, a household model, to Savanna, ...

  7. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on the long run. This subjects agro ecological niches to high sensitivity and exposure thus reducing the adaptive capacity. Vulnerability results and the cocoa farming households, the major contributors to the ...

  8. Perceptions and adaptation to climate change and variability by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kenya comprises of 83% arid and semi-arid land mainly suited to extensive livestock production. Communities living in the semi-arid areas have been affected by serious effects of climate change and variability. A study was carried out to evaluate farmer perceptions and adaptation to climate change in Naro Moru and ...

  9. Climate Change and Variability: Implications for Household Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Daniel

    Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to the impacts of climate change and variability. The impact is even stronger in pastoral areas of the country. However, studies on the actual climate change dynamics and its effect on food security at local and household levels are limited. The present study took ...

  10. VariableR Reclustering in Multiple Top Quark and W Boson Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyde, Jeremy [SLAC National Accelerator Lab., Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    2015-08-14

    VariableR jet reclustering is an innovative technique that allows for the reconstruction of boosted object over a wide range of kinematic regimes. Such capability enables the efficient identification of events with multiple boosted top quarks which is a typical signature for new physics processes such as the production of the supersymmetric partner of the gluon. In order to evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the VariableR reclustered jets are compared with fixed radius reclustered jets. The flexibility of the algorithm is tested by reconstructing both boosted top quarks and boosted W bosons. The VariableR reclustering method is found to be more efficient than the fixed radius algorithm at identifying top quarks and W bosons in events with four top quarks, therefore enhancing the sensitivity for gluino searches.

  11. VariableR reclustering in multiple top quark events - Oral Presentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyde, Jeremy; /SLAC

    2015-08-22

    VariableR jet reclustering is an innovative technique that allows for the reconstruction of boosted object over a wide range of kinematic regimes. Such capability enables the efficient identification of events with multiple boosted top quarks which is a typical signature for new physics processes such as the production of the supersymmetric partner of the gluon. In order to evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the VariableR reclustered jets are compared with fixed radius reclustered jets. The flexibility of the algorithm is tested by reconstructing both boosted top quarks and boosted W bosons. The VariableR reclustering method is found to be more efficient than the fixed radius algorithm at identifying top quarks and W bosons in events with four top quarks, therefore enhancing the sensitivity for gluino searches.

  12. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  13. Climate-Forced Variability of Ocean Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Curtis; Brix, Holger; Ito, Taka; Frenzel, Hartmut; Thompson, LuAnne

    2011-07-01

    Oxygen (O2) is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems. As oceanic O2 falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly. We show that the spatial extent of hypoxia is highly sensitive to small changes in the ocean’s O2 content, with maximum responses at suboxic concentrations where anaerobic metabolisms predominate. In model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world’s largest suboxic zone, in the Pacific Ocean, varies in size by a factor of 2. This is attributable to climate-driven changes in the depth of the tropical and subtropical thermocline that have multiplicative effects on respiration rates in low-O2 water. The same mechanism yields even larger fluctuations in the rate of nitrogen removal by denitrification, creating a link between decadal climate oscillations and the nutrient limitation of marine photosynthesis.

  14. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  15. International trade and the adaptation to climate change and variability

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan, Gunter; Schenker, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    This paper has three messages mainly, which are observed in a simple model of climate change, international trade and regional adaptation. First, trade can be viewed as a kind of adaptation to climate change and variability, as trade can help to reduce direct impacts of global climate change on a region’s welfare. In particular, the less affected and the richer nations are, the more they can profit from moderating the impacts of global climate change through trade. Second, if regions are rich...

  16. Climate variability during the Holocene inferred from northeastern Iberian speleothems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, A.; Bartolomé, M.; Sancho, C.; Belmonte, Á.; Stoll, H.; Cacho, I.; Edwards, R. L.; Hellstrom, J.

    2012-04-01

    Although the general climate trends during the Holocene in the Iberian Peninsula have been well described after the study of marine and lacustrine records, many questions regarding the timing of some of the events together with the characterization of the higher-frequency climate variability are still poorly understood. New speleothem records from several caves in northeastern Iberia provide data to explore Holocene climate changes. The selected caves are located in a latitudinal transect from the Pyrenees to the Iberian Range and placed at different altitude. Two of them, 5 de Agosto and Pot au Feu, belong to the same karstic complex in Cotiella massif (Central Pyrenees, 1600 m asl). Seso Cave, also in the Central Pyrenees but at 781 m of altitude, and Molinos cave, a cavity very rich in speleothems located at 1040 m in the Iberian Range, complete the transect. Although in all the caves precipitation coming from Atlantic fronts dominates over the year, a significant Mediterranean influence, specially in summer months, is identified after rainfall monitoring. Speleothem formation during the Holocene occurred at a very low pace in 5 de Agosto cave (80yrs/mm) and increased dramatically at low-altitude caves and during particular periods proved to be wetter (eg. Early Holocene in Molinos cave, less than 10yr/mm). In Seso and Pot au Feu caves, up to seven studied speleothems only grew during short climatic events such as the Iron Cold Period (3000-2500 cal yr BP) or the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 yr AD) that, although cold, were particularly humid periods in northeastern Spain. First stable isotope results highlight the importance of comparing speleothems with similar growing rates and from the same cave to extract climate information and discard other influences. From the integration of four stalagmites from Molinos cave covering since the Holocene onset to 2000 cal yrs BP, the Early Holocene (11.7-8.5 ka BP) with d13C values between -11 and - 9‰ appears as the

  17. Prediction Feasibility of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Using Climatic Variables in Poldokhtar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behroz Parvaneh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increasing number of patients suffering from cutaneous leishmaniasis in Poldokhtar County during the last 10 years and technological advances in data generation has increased the necessity to produce the predicting models of disease prevalence in the region. Therefore, climatic variables were used in this study to predict the cutaneous leishmaniasis. Materials and Methods: In this study using regression model, the relationship between number of patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis and climatic signals were taken simultaneously and with one, two, three and four months of regression lag. Results: Totally there was a significant relationship between January patients with January NINO1 climatic signal, March patients with February PNA climatic signal, April patients with March AAMM climatic signal, May patients with April AO climatic signal, and August patients with June TSA climatic signal, at 5% significance level. Furthermore, there was a significant relationship between February patients with January NINO1 climatic signal, at 10% significance level. Conclusion: This investigation showed that use of climatic signals with lags for predicting the disease was better than simultaneous application of signals and disease. Correlation between statistics relating to diseases during the entire period and PDO signal with 2 months of lag was obtained as 84.53. In addition, results indicated that approximately during half of the months in a year, there was a good correlation between prevalence of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the climatic signals and thus enabling us to discover prevalence of cutaneous leishmaniasis using the climatic signals.

  18. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts....... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  19. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  20. Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

    2017-04-01

    Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given

  1. The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães Nobre, G.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P. J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received little attention. We investigated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) during their neutral, positive, and negative phases, to understand their relationships with four flood indicators: Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall, Intensity of Extreme Rainfall, Flood Occurrence, and Flood Damage. We found that positive and negative phases of NAO and EA are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Intensity of Extreme Rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or EA, but still significant in some regions. We show that Flood Damage and Flood Occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Future research should focus on their joint influence on flood risk. The potential inclusion of seasonal forecasts of indices of climate variability could be effective in forecasting flood damage.

  2. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  3. Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Lewis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Water isotope records such as speleothems provide extensive evidence of past tropical hydrological changes. During Heinrich events, isotopic changes in monsoon regions have been interpreted as implying a widespread drying through the Northern Hemisphere tropics and an anti-phased precipitation response in the south. Here, we examine the sources of this variability using a water isotope-enabled general circulation model, Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We incorporate a new suite of vapour source distribution tracers to help constrain the impact of precipitation source region changes on the isotopic composition of precipitation and to identify nonlocal amount effects. We simulate a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a large freshwater input to the region as an idealised analogue to iceberg discharge during Heinrich events. An increase in monsoon intensity, defined by vertical wind shear, is modelled over the South American domain, with small decreases simulated over Asia. Simulated isotopic anomalies agree well with proxy climate records, with lighter isotopic values simulated over South America and enriched values across East Asia. For this particular abrupt climate event, we identify which climatic change is most likely linked to water isotope change – changes in local precipitation amount, monsoon intensity, water vapour source distributions or precipitation seasonality. We categorise individual sites according to the climate variability that water isotope changes are most closely associated with, and find that the dominant isotopic controls are not consistent across the tropics – simple local explanations, in particular, fall short of explaining water isotope variability at all sites. Instead, the best interpretations appear to be site specific and often regional in scale.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of a forest gap model concerning current and future climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasch, P.; Suckow, F.; Buerger, G.; Lindner, M.

    1998-07-01

    The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes. In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA{sub -}P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially. (orig.)

  5. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  6. Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basher, Reid E. [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), P.O. Box 14 901, Wellington (New Zealand)

    1999-07-01

    An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs.

  7. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, H; Christl, M; Chialvo, D R

    2008-01-01

    Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) a...

  8. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  9. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  10. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry De-Graft Acquah

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

  11. Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Ceres; Guéguen, Maya; Douzet, Rolland; Carboni, Marta; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2017-01-01

    Summary 1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment. PMID:28670002

  12. Extreme Climatic Events Modelling and Economic Impacts Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: a Risk Management Application to the Rural Sector in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.; Ghil, M.

    2013-05-01

    An increasing body of literature has shown the increase of frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation events across the world. Several economic systems and networks present high levels of vulnerability to weather variability and extreme weather events. This research proposes a methodological framework to characterize the cascading climate-to-economy risk profiles of economic systems to weather variability in different global warming scenarios. A weather-index and machine learning-based approach is introduced to encode and characterize the studied systems vulnerability to weather variability. The latter is enclosed in a "weather-within-climate" stochastic downscaling approach in order to characterize the interaction of low and high frequency climate variability and project risk profiles into future climate scenarios. The probabilistic weather-driven physical loss risk profiles are finally used to model supply shock-driven economic direct and indirect economic losses in the studied region or country. Given the acute vulnerability of the rural population to weather variability and global warming, this probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology is applied to the study the risk profile of weather-driven loss in the rural sector in a developing country, China. Province-level weather-to-economy risk profiles results of weather-driven staple crops loss under different technological and climate scenarios are presented. Implications for the design of risk management policy mixes are finally discussed.

  13. Variability of simulants used in recreating stab events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, D J; Wainwright, A

    2011-07-15

    Forensic investigators commonly use simulants/backing materials to mount fabrics and/or garments on when recreating damage due to stab events. Such work may be conducted in support of an investigation to connect a particular knife to a stabbing event by comparing the severance morphology obtained in the laboratory to that observed in the incident. There does not appear to have been a comparison of the effect of simulant type on the morphology of severances in fabrics and simulants, nor on the variability of simulants. This work investigates three simulants (pork, gelatine, expanded polystyrene), two knife blades (carving, bread), and how severances in the simulants and an apparel fabric typically used to manufacture T-shirts (single jersey) were affected by (i) simulant type and (ii) blade type. Severances were formed using a laboratory impact apparatus to ensure a consistent impact velocity and hence impact energy independently of the other variables. The impact velocity was chosen so that the force measured was similar to that measured in human performance trials. Force-time and energy-time curves were analysed and severance morphology (y, z directions) investigated. Simulant type and knife type significantly affected the critical forensic measurements of severance length (y direction) in the fabric and 'skin' (Tuftane). The use of EPS resulted in the lowest variability in data, further the severances recorded in both the fabric and Tuftane more accurately reflected the dimensions of the impacting knives. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

    2017-09-01

    Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12

  15. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  16. Coupled Climate Variability and Megadrought Over the Common Era and Implications For the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Fasullo, J.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.

    2016-12-01

    Sustained megadrought events in arid regions pose significant risk to water resources, yet the mechanisms for generating these events remain unclear. A critical question is the degree to which coupled climate models can correctly represent the risk of megadrought; to date, this has been difficult to answer owing to the long timescales of internal variability and the relative rarity of long model simulations. Here, the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble is used to assess the effect of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on megadrought occurrence frequency, intensity, and duration. Megadrought persistence is strongly affected by ENSO amplitude in teleconnected regions such as western North America, southeast Asia, and Australia, via preferential initiation/termination of drought events by strong El Nino/La Nina events. Influences from other modes are less clear although sometimes becoming significant; this implies that correctly representing the relative strength of climate variability could greatly improve model-based megadrought risk estimates. Finally, the effects of climate change-induced shifts in the amplitude of ENSO and other climate modes on future megadrought properties are analyzed using the CESM Large Ensemble.

  17. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fohlmeister

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high-resolution records of δ18O, δ13C values and Mg/Ca ratios. Changes in the Mg/Ca ratio are attributed to past meteoric precipitation variability. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation, and variations in the δ18O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 8 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 and 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in the Bunker Cave stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker Cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ18O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation.

  18. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with

  19. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  20. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BRO OKOJIE

    damage from climate change. Okunmadewa. (2003) puts it more succinctly as the likelihood of a shock causing a significant welfare loss. He was of the opinion that vulnerability depends on exposure to risks (uncertain events that can lead to welfare losses) and on risk management actions taken to respond to risks,.

  1. Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: A comparative study between seven contrasting river basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2005-01-01

    Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability to enhance food quantity and security and environmental quality and security have been explored for seven contrasting basins in the context of the ADAPT project. For the seven basins as much as possible established modeling frameworks

  2. Partitioning the impacts of spatial rainfall variability and climate variability in urban drainage flow modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall is uniformly distributed and derived from a single rain gauge, or spatially distributed and obtained from a weather radar system. When models are fed with a single realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall remains unexplored. High resolution stochastic rainfall generators allow studying the response and sensitivity of urban drainage networks to these spatial and climatological rainfall variabilities. The goal in this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic high resolution rainfall generator (STREAP) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall was then used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow for a small urban catchment. The variability of peak flows at three different locations in the urban drainage network in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated and partitioned among it sources. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. In addition, the contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods.

  3. Urban green land cover changes and their relation to climatic variables in an anthropogenically impacted area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2017-10-01

    Urban green areas are experiencing rapid land cover change caused by human-induced land degradation and extreme climatic events. Vegetation index time series provide a useful way to monitor urban vegetation phenological variations. This study quantitatively describes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI) /Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) temporal changes for Bucharest metropolitan region land cover in Romania from the perspective of vegetation phenology and its relation with climate changes and extreme climate events. The time series from 2000 to 2016 of the NOAA AVHRR and MODIS Terra/Aqua satellite data were analyzed to extract anomalies. Time series of climatic variables were also analyzed through anomaly detection techniques and the Fourier Transform. Correlations between NDVI/EVI time series and climatic variables were computed. Temperature, rainfall and radiation were significantly correlated with almost all land-cover classes for the harmonic analysis amplitude term. However, vegetation phenology was not correlated with climatic variables for the harmonic analysis phase term suggesting a delay between climatic variations and vegetation response. Training and validation were based on a reference dataset collected from IKONOS high resolution remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for period 2000- 2016 was assessed to be of 87%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.3%), change omission errors (24.7%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.73. This paper demonstrates the potential of moderate - and high resolution, multispectral imagery to map and monitor the evolution of the physical urban green land cover under climate and anthropogenic pressure.

  4. Climate variability and predictability in Northwest Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baddour, O.; Djellouli, Y.

    2003-04-01

    Northwest Africa defined here as the area including Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, occupies a large territory in North Africa with an area exceeding 3.5 million km2. The geographical contrast is very important: while most of the southern part is desert, the northern and northwestern parts exhibit a contrasting geography including large flat areas in the western part of Morocco, northern Algeria and eastern part of Tunisia and the formidable Atlas mountains barrier extends from south west of Morocco toward north west of Tunisia crossing central Morocco and north Algeria. Agriculture is one of major socio-economic activities in the region with an extensive cash-crop for exporting to Europe especially from Morocco and Tunisia. The influence of the recurring droughts during the 80s and 90s was very crucial for the economic and societal aspects of the region. In Morocco, severe droughts have caused GDP fluctuation within past 20 years from 10% increase down to negative values in some particular years. Recent studies have investigated seasonal rainfall variability and prediction over MOROCCO in the framework of regional and international collaboration. Results from this work has shown that the main general circulation feature associated with the rainfall variability within Morocco is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The relationship is in fact due to the major role played by the AZORES high pressure with its role in modulating the main position of the active synoptic systems in the north Atlantic area and therefore in modulating the frequency and the intensity of the weather systems that impact the western part of the region. Mediterranean sea plays also major role in the mid of the region. In this paper we applied EOF technique on 500 hPa. The data used are monthly reanalysis NCEP/NCAR analyses for November from 1960 to 1990 climatological time series. Correlation analysis is then performed between EOF time series and global 4x4 degre SST anomalies. The results we

  5. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  6. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  7. How Does the Variability in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate Indices Explain Variability in Crop Productivity for Turkey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2017-04-01

    Studies in the literature usually focus on the effects of climate change on crop productivity and yield, but the studies on how long-term climate variability has an impact on crop productivity and yield draw attention less. In addition, these studies are mostly carried out using statistical methods and predictions with basic climate parameters. To this respect, we have used indices indicating effects of extreme climatic events on wheat and maize productivity instead of basic climate parameters through a crop model called as CROPSYST for the domain of Turkey for the period of 2020-2050 with respect to the reference period of 1991-2012. Based on this, we tried to see how wheat and maize, which grow in most part of Turkey, would be affected within the scope of climate change in the near future period. Model results show that crop productivity will be affected in some part of the domain in the near-future period. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

  8. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  9. Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Ortega, Pablo; Khodri, Myriam; Menegoz, Martin; Cassou, Christophe; Hanquiez, Vincent

    2017-03-01

    Volcanic eruptions eject largeamounts of materials into the atmosphere, which can have an impact on climate. In particular, the sulphur dioxide gas released in the stratosphere leads to aerosol formation that reflects part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby affecting the climate energy balance. In this review paper, we analyse the regional climate imprints of large tropical volcanic explosive eruptions. For this purpose, we focus on the impact on three major climatic modes, located in the Atlantic (the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: AMO) and Pacific (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) sectors. We present an overview of the chain of events that contributes to modifying the temporal variability of these modes. Our literature review is complemented by new analyses based on observations of the instrumental era as well as on available proxy records and climate model simulations that cover the last millennium. We show that the impact of volcanic eruptions of the same magnitude or weaker than 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the NAO and ENSO is hard to detect, due to the noise from natural climate variability. There is however a clear impact of the direct radiative forcing resulting from tropical eruptions on the AMO index both in reconstructions and climate model simulations of the last millennium, while the impact on the ocean circulation remains model-dependent. To increase the signal to noise ratio and better evaluate the climate response to volcanic eruptions, improved reconstructions of these climatic modes and of the radiative effect of volcanic eruptions are required on a longer time frame than the instrumental era. Finally, we evaluate climate models' capabilities to reproduce the observed and anticipated impacts and mechanisms associated with volcanic forcing, and assess their potential for seasonal to decadal prediction. We find a very large spread in the simulated responses across the different climate

  10. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

    2016-04-01

    Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

  11. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  12. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  13. Icing events over the Russian territory in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, Olga; Arzhanova, Nataliya; Razuvaev, Vycheslav; Groisman, Pavel

    2014-05-01

    Ongoing climate change manifests itself as changes in the most of the climate system parameters. Recent changes in temperature and precipitation regimes and thaw frequency, as well as the summer decrease in ice-covered area in the Arctic Ocean (which gives rise to the formation of the water vapor source for the dry polar atmosphere early in the cold season) affect the atmospheric humidity regime. The humidity regime change at high latitudes in cold seasons can alter the characteristics of icing events. In the high latitudes higher humidity causes higher ice condensation from the air (icing and hoar frost) in the absence of precipitation. Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which results in tremendous economic damage. Aircraft icing in flight is the most dangerous phenomenon that in some instances can cause aircraft crash. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture and forestry. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Observations are made at an instrument platform and in its visible vicinity. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator in order to estimate not only the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits, but also their weight and size. Observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977-2012 are used to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon is even observed in summer months. In the cold season (November-March), icing events typically occur in the north of European Russia, Siberia and Yakutia. Trends of the number of days with the phenomenon under study are estimated

  14. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

    2011-02-01

    Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

  15. Nature Relation Between Climatic Variables and Cotton Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakaria M. Sawan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of climatic variables on flower and boll production and retention in cotton (Gossypium barbadense. Also, this study investigated the relationship between climatic factors and production of flowers and bolls obtained during the development periods of the flowering and boll stage, and to determine the most representative period corresponding to the overall crop pattern. Evaporation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface soil temperature at 1800 h, and maximum air temperature, are the important climatic factors that significantly affect flower and boll production. The least important variables were found to be surface soil temperature at 0600 h and minimum temperature. There was a negative correlation between flower and boll production and either evaporation or sunshine duration, while that correlation with minimum relative humidity was positive. Higher minimum relative humidity, short period of sunshine duration, and low temperatures enhanced flower and boll formation.

  16. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

    2011-02-04

    Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

  17. Understanding Farmers' Response to Climate Variability in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, farmers 'response to climate variability was examined. Primary and secondary data were used. A multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the collection of the primary data using structured questionnaires. Four vegetation zones out of seven where farming is mainly carried out were selected for the study.

  18. Climate Variability and Access to and Utilization of Water Resources ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The methods used to analyze and interpret the quantitative data gathered on the availability and quality of water will be essentially statistical. The cartography of the way the settlements are structured will reveal local determinants that aggravate the effects of climate variability on water availability. The team will also rely on ...

  19. Climate variability; enhancing adaptive utilization of browse trees for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CHIBINGA

    2Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, P. O. box 29053,. Kangemi, Nairobi. Kenya. Accepted ... ecological disturbance due to increasing climate variability. They are unable to adequately ... increased risk of wild fires, resulting in more than 50% decline in agricultural ...

  20. Predicting drought in an agricultural watershed given climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Goodwater Creek Expe...

  1. SOME ASPECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    palaeosoil analysis, archaeological techniques and lake level reconstruction will help reveal the magnitude of past climate variability in the region. On recent time scales, rainfall over Wollo is characterised by a distinctive bi-modal pattern with. Belg rains in April-May preceding the main wet season Krempr, July to.

  2. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hope&shola

    Accepted 14 July, 2009. A study was carried in two villages of Kamenyanga and Kintinku of Manyoni District, central Tanzania. The overall objective of this study was to understand local communities' perceptions on climate and variability issues and establish its impacts and adaptation strategies within agricultural sector.

  3. Climate variability; enhancing adaptive utilization of browse trees for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agro-pastoralists whose sources of livelihood depend on rain-fed agriculture are very vulnerable to ecological disturbance due to increasing climate variability. They are unable to adequately feed their animals in times of extreme weather conditions of floods and droughts thereby causing a disruption in their major source of ...

  4. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J.; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richard; Grant, Robert F.; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh; Hunt, Leslie A.; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Osborne, Tom M.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Rötter, Reimund P.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and

  5. Influence of climate variables on Cyperus papyrus stomatal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cyperus papyrus forms highly productive wetlands in tropical Africa, but the environmental control of transpirational water loss in wetlands is poorly understood. The influence of climate variables on papyrus stomatal conductance in dry and wet seasons of the year was investigated in a wetland in Kampala, Uganda, ...

  6. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: climate variability, food crop production, north-eastern Ghana, sustainable development. 1Institute .... potential crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions, a clear indication that food security .... yields in China have been found to be positively correlated with temperature in some regions and negatively ...

  7. Short term climate trend and variability around Woliso, Oromia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the meteorological data of Woliso for the last decade (2004-2013), short-term climate variability was assessed. ... dry (low RC <0.6), whereas May and September received big rains with moderate concentration (rainfall coefficient =1.0-1.9) and the summer (JJA) received big rainfall with high concentration (rainfall ...

  8. Climate change and variability: Smallholder farming communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Increasing awareness of risks associated with climate change and variability among smallholder farmers is critical in building their capacity to develop the necessary adaptive measures. Using farmer participatory research approaches and formal questionnaire surveys, interaction has been made with >800 farmers in two ...

  9. SOME ASPECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    140 D. Conway. INTRODUCTION. This paper presents a review of climate variability in the north-east Ethiopian. Highlands with particular emphasis on Wollo and ... and other regions of Africa over the last five centuries. Williams and Faure. (1980) and Williams and Adamson (1981) edited two major books on quaternary.

  10. Adaptation and Coping Mechanisms to Climate Variability in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the effects and coping mechanisms to climate variability among pastoralist communities in Kilimanjaro and Manyara regions. Data were collected from a sample of 60 respondents from pastoralist communities. The sampled pastoralists were selected using random sampling techniques. Data were ...

  11. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    ; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate......Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more...... susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...

  12. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  13. The Holocene floods and their affinity to climatic variability in the western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S. K.; Marh, B. S.; Juyal, Navin

    2017-08-01

    The present study in the middle Satluj valley explores the sedimentary records of past floods with an objective to understand the climatic processes responsible for their genesis. Based on lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, and grain size variability, 25 flood events are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the higher Himalayan crystalline and the trans-Himalaya. Our study suggests that the floods were generated by Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) during extreme precipitation events. However, the existing database does not allow us to negate the contribution from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Field stratigraphy supported by optical chronology indicates four major flood phases that are dated to 13.4-10.4, 8.3-3.6, 2.2-1.4, and Himalaya and across the mid-latitudinal region (30°N-40°N) suggests a synoptic scale Arctic and Atlantic climate variability.

  14. Spatial and temporal variability of Mediterranean drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R.; Sousa, P.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.

    2009-04-01

    -2004) and using ECMWF operational analysis available every six hours (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC) with a 1°x1° resolution (Sthol et al., 2004). Following the approach used by the authors for the Sahel (Nieto et al., 2006) and Tropical south America (Nieto et al., 2008) we traced (E-P) backwards from both regions, limiting the transport times to 10 days, which is the average time that water vapor resides in the atmosphere. In order to evaluate possible shifts in the origin of the moisture sources (between wet and dry years) this analysis was performed independently for dry and wet winter seasons. Nieto R., Gimeno L., Trigo R.M. (2006) A Lagrangian identification of major sources of Sahel moisture. Geophys. Res. Letters, 33, L18707, doi:10.1029/2006GL027232. Nieto R., Ribera P., Trigo R.M. , Gallego D., Gimeno L.(2008) Dynamic identification of moisture sources in the Orinoco Basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53, 602-612. Schrier G, Briffa KR, Jones PD, Osborn TJ. (2005). Summer moisture variability across Europe. Journal of Climate, 19, 2818-2834. Stohl, A., M. Hittenberger, and G. Wotawa (1998), Validation of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large scale tracer experiment data, Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245- 4264. Stohl, A., and P. James (2004), A Lagrangian analysis of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle. Part 1: Method description, validation, and demonstration for the August 2002 flooding in central Europe. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 656-678. Trigo, R. and 21 authors (2006) Relations between variability in the Mediterranean region and mid-latitude variability. In: P. Lionello, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli & R. Boscolo (Eds), Mediterranean Climate Variability, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 179-226.

  15. The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel K. Derbile

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana.Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

  16. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  17. Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja E. Bierstedt

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available It is not clear to what extent the variations of seasonal mean winds and seasonal extreme winds are related. We investigate this relationship for the Baltic Sea area by analysing two regional climate gridded data sets, coastDat2 and HiResAFF, for the periods 1948–2009 and 1850–2009, respectively. Both data sets are based on regional climate simulations incorporating information from observations with the aim of reproducing the observed trajectory of climate variables. We compare the wind direction distribution of mean and extreme wind events by analysing seasonal wind roses. Mean wind directions display a more isotropic distribution, with a seasonally varying maximum. Extreme winds are much more constrained to south-westerly and westerly directions. The co-variability in time between the wind speed along the dominant directions of seasonal mean and the seasonal extreme winds was investigated using a complex correlation coefficient. This coefficient enables the simultaneous investigation of the co-variability of two-dimensional variables, for example wind. This coefficient is small for all seasons, indicating a very weak co-variance in time between seasonal mean and seasonal extremes. Hence, deviations in the direction of the mean wind are not a good indicator for deviations in the direction of extreme winds. We also assess the spatial structure and temporal variability of mean and extreme wind statistics using a principal component analysis. The principal components exhibit no significant long-term trends over the simulation periods, although multidecadal trends are detected for some periods and seasons. In recent decades, wintertime mean and extremes shifted to a more south-westerly direction. In the other seasons, no trends in wind directions are detected. We also investigate the possibility that seasonal patterns of extreme winds might persist over several adjacent seasons. No such persistent patterns can be identified, and hence extreme

  18. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

  19. Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Jungclaus

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing task in climate research has been to distinguish between anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. A prerequisite for fulfilling this task is the understanding of the relative roles of external drivers and internal variability of climate and the carbon cycle. Here, we present the first ensemble simulations over the last 1200 years with a comprehensive Earth system model including a fully interactive carbon cycle. Applying up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing including the recent low-amplitude estimates of solar variations, the ensemble simulations reproduce temperature evolutions consistent with the range of reconstructions. The 20th-century warming trend stands out against all pre-industrial trends within the ensemble. Volcanic eruptions are necessary to explain variations in pre-industrial climate such as the Little Ice Age; yet only the strongest, repeated eruptions lead to cooling trends that differ significantly from the internal variability across all ensemble members. The simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations exhibit a stable carbon cycle over the pre-industrial era with multi-centennial variations somewhat smaller than in the observational records. Early land-cover changes have modulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations only slightly. We provide a model-based quantification of the sensitivity (termed γ of the global carbon cycle to temperature for a variety of climate and forcing conditions. We diagnose a distinct dependence of γ on the forcing strength and time-scales involved, thus providing a possible explanation for the systematic difference in the observational estimates for different segments of the last millennium.

  20. Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to changes in climate variables for different Australian climatic zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the factors that have an impact on potential evapotranspiration (PET) sensitivity to changes in different climate variables is critical to understanding the possible implications of climatic changes on the catchment water balance. Using a global sensitivity analysis, this study assessed the implications of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of PET to a large range of plausible changes in temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), solar radiation (Rs) and wind speed (uz). The analysis was conducted at 30 Australian locations representing different climatic zones, using the Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor PET models. Results from both models suggest that the baseline climate can have a substantial impact on overall PET sensitivity. In particular, approximately 2-fold greater changes in PET were observed in cool-climate energy-limited locations compared to other locations in Australia, indicating the potential for elevated water loss as a result of increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) in these locations. The two PET models consistently indicated temperature to be the most important variable for PET, but showed large differences in the relative importance of the remaining climate variables. In particular for the Penman-Monteith model, wind and relative humidity were the second-most important variables for dry and humid catchments, respectively, whereas for the Priestley-Taylor model solar radiation was the second-most important variable, with the greatest influence in warmer catchments. This information can be useful to inform the selection of suitable PET models to estimate future PET for different climate conditions, providing evidence on both the structural plausibility and input uncertainty for the alternative models.

  1. Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walland, D.J. [Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Power, S.B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). Research Centre; Hirst, A.C. [Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation Division of Atmospheric Research (Australia)

    2000-02-01

    A 1000 year integration of the CSIRO coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is used to study low frequency (decadal to centennial) climate variability in precipitation and temperature. The model is shown to exhibit sizeable decadal variability for these fields, generally accounting for approximately 20 to 40% of the variability (greater than one year) in precipitation and up to 80% for temperature. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the model output to show some of the major statistical modes of low frequency variability. The first EOF spatial pattern looks very much like that of the interannual ENSO pattern. It bears considerable resemblance to observational estimates and is centred in the Pacific extending into both hemispheres. It modulates both precipitation and temperature globally. The EOF has a time evolution that appears to be more than just red noise. Finally, the link between SST in the Pacific with Australian rainfall variability seen in observations is also evident in the model. (orig.)

  2. Building resilience to climate variability in Uganda's “cattle corridor ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-27

    Apr 27, 2016 ... ... climate change and the short-term increase in climate variability. With IDRC support, researchers from the Africa Innovations Institute set out to find ways to enhance the resilience of poor rural communities to climate variability by addressing linkages between climate variability, food security, and human ...

  3. Climate-mediated spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial productivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X.; Babst, F.; Ciais, P.; Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Wattenbach, M.; Zang, C.; Mahecha, M. D.

    2014-06-01

    Quantifying the interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its sensitivity to climate is crucial for improving carbon budget predictions. In this context it is necessary to disentangle the influence of climate from impacts of other mechanisms underlying the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of the ecosystem productivity. In this study we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of historical observations of European crop yields in tandem with a set of climate variables. We further evaluated if relevant remote-sensing retrievals of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) depict a similar behaviour. Our results reveal distinct spatial patterns in the IAV of the analysed proxies linked to terrestrial productivity. In particular, we find higher IAV in water-limited regions of Europe (Mediterranean and temperate continental Europe) compared to other regions in both crop yield and remote-sensing observations. Our results further indicate that variations in the water balance during the active growing season exert a more pronounced and direct effect than variations of temperature on explaining the spatial patterns in IAV of productivity-related variables in temperate Europe. Overall, we observe a temporally increasing trend in the IAV of terrestrial productivity and an increasing sensitivity of productivity to water availability in dry regions of Europe during the 1975-2009 period. In the same regions, a simultaneous increase in the IAV of water availability was detected. These findings suggest intricate responses of carbon fluxes to climate variability in Europe and that the IAV of terrestrial productivity has become potentially more sensitive to changes in water availability in the dry regions in Europe. The changing sensitivity of terrestrial productivity accompanied by the changing IAV of climate is expected to impact carbon stocks and the net carbon balance

  4. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  5. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  6. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  7. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  8. A Global Climate Model based event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in the West Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Renato; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Stephenson, David; Cook, Ian; Flay, Shaun; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    We propose a new approach to the creation of a stochastic event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in West Pacific, for use in the insurance industry in the catastrophe modelling process. The event set is based on both available observational data and a database of tropical cyclones dynamically simulated by a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. For an initial proof of concept exercise we focus on the West Pacific region: Japan, China and South-East Asia. A database of tropical cyclone tracks is extracted from over 200 years of current climate simulations by HiGEM1.1, a high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Model. A bias correction procedure is applied to model the central pressure of the dynamically HiGEM-simulated tropical cyclones in terms of the observed (IBTrACS) distribution of central pressures. The bias-corrected storm track database is statistically sampled and spatially perturbed to produce a 1000 year database of synthetic storms. The proposed approach has several advantages: 1. it is based on a long-term, globally consistent source of dynamically simulated tropical storms under current state of the atmosphere/climate; this compensates reliance on limited and/or inconsistent historical data and provides a much larger sampling for the distribution of the tropical cyclone landfalls; 2. it allows assessment of how large scale natural climate variability may influence regional tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal time scales, and how this may alter risk; 3. it allows to analyse teleconnections in weather extremes, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. it can be further developed to assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. Adopting an integrated approach may begin to change the way that weather related risk is understood and assessed in the insurance industry.

  9. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  10. Evidence of multidecadal climate variability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, Richard Z.; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region is vulnerable to a variety of natural hazards, many of which are linked to climate and climate variability. Hurricanes, which are one such climate-related hazard, are a major recurring problem, and the active hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 raised interest in better understanding the controls and risks of hurricanes. Examination of historical records reveals intervals of alternating low and high hurricane activity that appear to be related to changes in average sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean. Analyses of instrumental temperature records from the North Atlantic show decadal-scale oscillations of slightly higher versus slightly lower average temperature extending back in time for over 100 years. This oscillation is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

  11. Seasonality variations in the Central Mediterranean during climate change events in the Late Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M-L. S.; Reichart, G.-J.; Wit, J.C.; de Nooijer, L.J.; Grauel, A.-L.; Bernasconi, S.M.; de Lange, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) events, such as the Little Ice Age (LIA), are thought to have influenced average annual temperatures only marginally, but to have affected winter temperatures relatively strongly. With summer temperatures relatively unaffected, reconstructing climate

  12. Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Scott C; Peairs, Frank B

    2017-02-01

    Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology. Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate. Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  13. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  14. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  15. Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donner, S.D. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Knutson, T.R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.; Oppenheimer, M. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Dept. of Geosciences

    2007-03-27

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, the authors use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5{sup o}C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term 'committed warming' even after stabilization of atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

  16. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  17. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.

    during El Nino events. Based on the results from Chapter One, the analysis is expanded in several ways in Chapter Two. To gain a more complete and statistically meaningful understanding of ENSO, a 25 year time period is used instead of a single event. To gain a fuller understanding of climate variability, additional patterns are analyzed. Finally analysis is conducted at the regional scales that are of interest to farmers and agricultural planners. Key findings are that GISS ModelE can reproduce: (1) the spatial pattern associated with two additional related modes, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); (2) rainfall patterns in Indonesia; and (3) dynamical features such as sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and wind in the study regions. When run in coupled mode, the same model reproduces similar modes spatially but with reduced variance and weak teleconnections. Since Chapter Two identified Western Indonesia as the region where GCMs hold the most promise for agricultural applications, in Chapter Three a finer spatial and temporal scale analysis of ENSO's effects is presented. Agricultural decision-making is also linked to ENSO's climate effects. Early rainy season precipitation and circulation, and same-season planting and harvesting dates, are shown to be sensitive to ENSO. The locus of ENSO convergence and rainfall anomalies is shown to be near the axis of rainy season establishment, defined as the 6--8 mm/day isohyet, an approximate threshold for irrigated rice cultivation. As the axis tracks south and east between October and January, so do ENSO anomalies. Circulation anomalies associated with ENSO are shown to be similar to those associated with rainfall anomalies, suggesting that long lead-time ENSO forecasts may allow more adaptation than 'wait and see' methods, with little loss of forecast skill. Additional findings include: (1) rice and corn yields are lower (higher) during dry (wet) trimesters and El Nino (La Nina) years; and (2

  18. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  19. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

    2015-03-07

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  20. Sensitivity of the East African rift lakes to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olaka, L.; Trauth, M. H.

    2009-04-01

    Lakes in the East African Rift have provided excellent proxies to reconstruct past climate changes in the low latitudes. The lakes occupy volcano-tectonic depressions with highly variable climate and hydrological setting, that present a good opportunity to study the climatic and hydrogeological influences on the lake water budget. Previous studies have used lake floor sediments to establish the sensitivity of the East African rift lakes. This study focuses on geomorphology and climate to offer additional or alternative record of lake history that are key to quantifying sensitivity of these lakes as archives to external and internal climatic forcings. By using the published Holocene lake areas and levels, we analyze twelve lakes on the eastern arm of the East African rift; Ziway, Awassa, Turkana, Suguta, Baringo, Nakuru, Elmenteita, Naivasha, Natron, Manyara and compare with Lake Victoria, that occupies the plateau between the east and the western arms of the rift. Using the SRTM data, Hypsometric (area-altitude) analysis has been used to compare the lake basins between latitude 80 North and 30 South. The mean elevation for the lakes, is between 524 and 2262 meters above sea level, the lakes' hypsometric integrals (HI), a measure of landmass volume above the reference plane, vary from 0.31 to 0.76. The aridity index (Ai), defined as Precipitation/ Evapotranspiration, quantifies the water available to a lake, it encompasses land cover and climatic effects. It is lowest (arid) in the basin between the Ethiopian rift and the Kenyan rift and at the southern termination of the Kenyan Rift in the catchments of lake Turkana, Suguta, Baringo and Manyara with values of 0.55, 0.43, 0.43 and 0.5 respectively. And it is highest (wet) in the catchments of, Ziway, Awassa, Nakuru and Naivasha as 1.33,1.03 and 1.2 respectively, which occupy the highest points of the rift. Lake Victoria has an index of 1.42 the highest of these lakes and receives a high precipitation. We use a

  1. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of extreme hydro-meteorological events over Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego-Eguiguren, L. E.; Coskun, M.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.; Attinger, S.

    2010-12-01

    Extreme hydro-meteorological events are the major cause of Great Natural Disasters according to the United Nations. In 2008 overall losses due to flood and drought related events amounted to US\\~570 bn (Munich RE). Discharge regimes of river basins are expected to be altered due to possible effects of climate change. For planning and water resources management, it is fundamental to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme hydro-meteorological events as well as its intensity. Predictions of climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation are currently done with GCM and RCM for global and regional scales, respectively. A fundamental research question at the moment is: are current RCMs able to reproduce the spatio-temporal variability of extreme events that were observed during the past decades? If not, what kind of bias exist in those data sets and how can these simulations be made useful for hydrologic projections? In this study we analyze these questions using the most recent comprehensive RCM data sets available from the ENSEMBLES project over whole Germany for the period from 1961 to 2000. During this period all RCMs were driven by ERA-40 reanalysis at spatial resolutions of 25 km and 50 km. Among the analyzed variables were the time evolution and the areal extend of various extreme statistics such as precipitation and temperature above and below a threshold value, maxiμm and miniμm air temperatures, maxiμm daily precipitation in summer. Additionally the spatial correlation structure of daily precipitation and the spatial pattern of a wetness index for each synoptic circulation pattern were also considered. These indices were compared with their respective ones obtained from observations of more than five thousand meteorological stations over Germany. Preliminary results indicate that the various RCMs were able to reproduce in some cases and for some indices the observed spatial patterns. The magnitudes of extreme event indices (Fig. 1) were

  2. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  3. The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    OpenAIRE

    Lall, Upmanu; Mann, Michael

    1994-01-01

    Low frequency (interannual or longer period) climatic variability is of interest bacause of its sugnificance for the understanding and prediction of protracted climatic anomalies. Closed basin lakes are sensitive to long term climatic fluctuations and integrate out high frequency variability. It is thus natural to examine the records of such lakes to better understand long term climate dynamics. Here we use Singul...

  4. Climate change or variable weather: Rethinking Danish homeowners' perceptions of floods and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... prevent the residents in Lolland from experiencing many of the changes that are already occurring and, at the same time, give them a feeling of being able to control the water to the extent that it is prevented from flooding their homes, both now and in the future. The combination of these two theoretical...

  5. Climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts: a North Atlantic perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, L. S.; Lear, W. H.

    In recent decades it has been recognized that in the North Atlantic climatic variability has been largely driven by atmospheric forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index began a pronounced decline around 1950 to a low in the 1960s. From 1970 onward the NAO index increased to its most extreme and persistent positive phase during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Changes in the pattern of the NAO have differential impacts on the opposite sides of the North Atlantic and differential impacts in the north and south. The changes in climate resulting from changes in the NAO appear to have had substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, in particular, on fish productivity, with the effects varying from region to region. An examination of several species and stocks, e.g. gadoids, herring and plankton in the Northeast Atlantic and cod and shellfish in the Northwest Atlantic, indicates that there is a link between long-term trends in the NAO and the productivity of various components of the marine ecosystem. While broad trends are evident, the mechanisms are poorly understood. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of how this climate variability affects the productivity of various components of the North Atlantic marine ecosystem.

  6. Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

    2017-11-01

    Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

  7. Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L

    2017-07-01

    Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A

    2011-05-21

    Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on

  9. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ploubidis George B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2

  10. Variability of the Atlantic Forest based on the EVI index and climate variables in Cunha-SP, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Fernandes Santana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the variability of the Atlantic Forest in the municipality of Cunha-SP, Brazil, based EVI index (Enhanced Vegetation Index and climatic variables (air temperature and rainfall. Images of MOD13Q1 product from MODIS sensor, which represent the index EVI were used. The descriptive statistics and multiple were applied to climate variables and EVI for the cycle 2007/2008 (strong La Niña event. The lowest average values of the rain were found for 2008 (171.60 mm, while the highest average rainfall was found for 2007 (187.02 mm. The vegetation behaved in a manner contrary, where the lowest average EVI index was found for 2007 (0.38, already 2008 had the highest rate (0.46, respectively. The coefficient of determination between the rainfall and the EVI in 2007 (R² = 0.43 higher than in 2008 (R² = 0.12, followed by correlation indexes in 2007 (r = 0.65 and 2008 (r = 0.34. However, both indexes were low, except correlation index in 2007. In the multiple regression analysis for the year 2007 obtained 87% correlation, while in 2008 only 27%. There is no correlation between vegetation and air temperature.

  11. Functional cereals for production in new and variable climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Robert J; Rangan, Parimalan; Furtado, Agnelo

    2016-04-01

    Adaptation of cereal crops to variable or changing climates requires that essential quality attributes are maintained to deliver food that will be acceptable to human consumers. Advances in cereal genomics are delivering insights into the molecular basis of nutritional and functional quality traits in cereals and defining new genetic resources. Understanding the influence of the environment on expression of these traits will support the retention of these essential functional properties during climate adaptation. New cereals for use as whole grain or ground to flour for other food products may be based upon the traditional species such as rice and wheat currently used in these food applications but may also include new options exploiting genomics tools to allow accelerated domestication of new species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, A. P.

    2008-12-01

    --"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying

  13. Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. R. Kaye

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information. Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. The aim of this paper is to provide background information and guidance on suitable techniques for mapping climate variables, including uncertainty. We assess a range of existing and novel techniques for mapping variables and uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps with "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. Using cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping in different disciplines we propose the following 6 general mapping guidelines to develop a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data:

    – use a sensible sequential or diverging colour scheme;

    – use appropriate colour symbolism if it is applicable;

    – ensure the map is usable by colour blind people;

    – use a data classification scheme that does not misrepresent the data

  14. The "New Climate" New Atmospheric Events and "New Climate Risks": The case of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Since the end of last century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional" causing floods have ceased to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with a recurrence increasingly high, prompting to wonder about the "new" mode of climate's hydrothermal functioning inducing torrential rains, as well as its effect on the environment and societies.The latest event is the disaster of November 2014 flooding in southern Morocco, which is due especially to the non usual rains return.Weather conditions were marked by enhanced Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), characterized by persistent high temperatures during the autumn period in Morocco, mainly south of the Atlas, combined by the intrusion of a cold drop in the beginning of the event on 11.17.2014, and straightforward installation of a planetary valley across the Moroccan coast on 11.24.2014, which has evolved into storm (Xandra) in which depression has reached the surprising value of 975 hPa on 11.28.2014.Human and material damage caused by this flood are impressive: people died, roads, bridges and crops have been destroyed, overwhelmed dams. It has been a catastrophe.This event and others like it (Mohammedia 2002, Tangier 2008, Gharb 2009-2010, Casablanca 2010), must be considered as references for the simulation of future situations, and integration into development plans on future.This communication aims to identify the processes and conditions that have generated these events causing floods, the "exceptional" characteristics of recorded rainfall, the spatial and temporal distribution of events. Those floods affect the whole country, especially low areas, foothills and the mouths of rivers. There are the most vulnerable locations mainly on the autumn which is the most exposed to torrential rainfall season !! ... Etc.

  15. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

    2016-04-01

    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  16. The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

  17. Climate variability, snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydro graphs in small forested basins, western Cascades, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed M. Perkins; Julia A. Jones

    2008-01-01

    Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (2) basins with old-growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation...

  18. Role of Weddell Sea ice variability in southern African climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morioka, Y.; Engelbrecht, F.; Behera, S. K.

    2016-12-01

    A role of interannual sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea on southern African climate is investigated by conducting data analysis and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiments. The Weddell Sea ice exhibits a distinct interannual variability during austral summer when the southern African rainfall experiences most of its annual rainfall. The sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Weddell Sea shows a significantly negative correlation with the southern African rainfall during early summer (Nov-Jan). The low SIC anomaly in the Weddell Sea is associated with anticyclonic atmospheric circulation anomalies in the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans, which facilitates more moisture advection from the southern Indian Ocean. Composite analysis reveals that the low SIC anomaly in the Weddell Sea is attributed to the increased solar radiation and the northwesterly wind anomaly. This low SIC anomaly, in turn, acts to cause warmer skin temperature and reduce the meridional temperature gradient to the north. This is a favoring condition for sustaining the anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the South Atlantic by enhancing the near-surface atmospheric stability. This intriguing association between the SIC and atmospheric circulation anomalies is also simulated in a series of CGCM experiment, e.g. where the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropics and midlatitudes is suppressed by the monthly climatology of the model. However, in the absence of interannual SST variability over global oceans, the simulated SIC anomaly is much smaller in association with the atmospheric internal variability, called the Southern Annular Mode. These CGCM results suggest that the air-sea-ice interaction in the Weddell Sea has potential impact on the overlying atmosphere in the South Atlantic, which is important for the southern African climate.

  19. Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

    2015-04-01

    Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

  20. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  1. Governmental responses and smallholders' adaptations to climatic variability in southeastern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardero Jimenez, Silvia Sofia; Schmook, Birgit; Christman, Zachary; Radel, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    Maize agriculture comprises a third of the area under cultivation in Mexico (75 million hectares), with only a quarter of this crop irrigated artificially. With the great dependence of the country's dominant crop on natural rainfall, there is potential for major losses in maize production due to climatic events, such as irregular rainfalls, droughts, and hurricanes. In 2012, droughts alone caused losses of 16 billion Mexican pesos nationwide in the agricultural sector. Over the last decades, political and economic pressures in the agrarian sector have further stressed Mexican smallholder farmers, as they have to respond to a combination of economic and climatic factors. This interdisciplinary study first documents local climate changes and then explores smallholder farmers' adaptations and governmental policy responses to the variable and changing precipitation and temperature patterns across southeastern Mexico. To assess local climate changes, we analyzed precipitation and temperature data from the land-based weather station network of CONAGUA for the 1973-2012 period. Precipitation anomalies were estimated to evaluate the annual and seasonal stability, deficit, or surplus; and linear regressions used to evaluate precipitation and temperature trends. Climatic analysis demonstrated, 1) a considerable increase in temperature across the study area; 2) a decline in precipitation across a sub-section; 3) increased drought frequency; and 4) an increase in negative anomalies in recent years. We then combine findings from our previous research (Mardero et al. 2014 and Mardero et al. 2015), based on interviews with 150 swidden maize smallholders in 10 communities, to new data from in-depth interviews with managers of local and regional agricultural associations and with members of governmental institutions in charge of climate policy implementation (n=19). The new data allow us to explore governmental responses to climatic variability in the agricultural sector in direct

  2. Response of the Amazon rainforest to late Pleistocene climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggi, Christoph; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Merkel, Ute; Mulitza, Stefan; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael; Schefuß, Enno

    2017-12-01

    Variations in Amazonian hydrology and forest cover have major consequences for the global carbon and hydrological cycles as well as for biodiversity. Yet, the climate and vegetation history of the lowland Amazon basin and its effect on biogeography remain debated due to the scarcity of suitable high-resolution paleoclimate records. Here, we use the isotopic composition (δD and δ13C) of plant-waxes from a high-resolution marine sediment core collected offshore the Amazon River to reconstruct the climate and vegetation history of the integrated lowland Amazon basin for the period from 50,000 to 12,800 yr before present. Our results show that δD values from the Last Glacial Maximum were more enriched than those from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the present-day. We interpret this trend to reflect long-term changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation, with overall drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results thus suggest a dominant glacial forcing of the climate in lowland Amazonia. In addition to previously suggested thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation change, which are directly related to temperature, we conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation are crucial to explain the temporal evolution of Amazonian rainfall variations, as demonstrated in climate model experiments. Our vegetation reconstruction based on δ13C values shows that the Amazon rainforest was affected by intrusions of savannah or more open vegetation types in its northern sector during Heinrich Stadials, while it was resilient to glacial drying. This suggests that biogeographic patterns in tropical South America were affected by Heinrich Stadials in addition to glacial-interglacial climate variability.

  3. Assessment of climate variability and hydrological alterations in Kaidu Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Brenning, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Climate change and hydrological alterations are major concerns in a mountain river ecosystem. We provide an essential assessment of climate variability (1961-2011) in Kaidu basin by means of Mann-Kendall test and cumulative anomalies. The Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) was further performed to analyze hydrological alterations (1972-2008). Change in the triggering of snowmelt runoff timing was analyzed by the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Results reveal that annual precipitation and temperature show an increase tendency, but with a significant trend in winter and summer, respectively, while the discharge reveals significant rises in both annual and seasonal scales. However, all the hydro-meteorological parameters show an obvious increase tendency especially in the mid-1990s. WSCT has a significant decreasing trend and was observed earlier by nearly 10 days in Kaidu Basin. Higher relationship between WSCT with temperatures (March to April, R= - 0.51) and precipitation (February to March, R=0.33) were found that temperature may play a major role in causing the earlier WSCT. Account for the reservoirs influences, the rise rate and monthly flows have increased evidently before and after the reservoirs regulation. Monthly streamflow was found higher in pre-impact (1972-1992) than post-impact period (1993-2008) based on the flow duration curves. Nevertheless, the base flow index displayed no change before and after the impact period. Consequently, both of climate change and reservoir regulation lead to a concentrated streamflow. Research should take this influence into consideration in hydrological analysis and modelling in terms of uncertainties. These findings deepen our understanding of climate change and hydrological alterations in Kaidu basin, and are useful for flood risk regulation, ecological restoration and future hydropower plants. Keywords: Climate change; Spring snowmelt runoff time; WSCT; hydrological alterations; IHA

  4. Impact of a Stochastic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Climate and Variability across Timescales and Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, C.

    2012-12-01

    Stochastic physics is one of most widely used methods to represent model uncertainty in ensemble prediction systems of weather and climate models. These schemes aim to represent absent or poorly simulated process whose scales are below the truncation scale, they have been proven to be a skilful tool against the common underdispersiveness (lack of internal variability) of these models, as well as theoretically able to improve the mean climate through a noise-induced drift (better variability leads to a better mean climate). However, the formulation of these schemes often relies in pragmatic assumptions with limited scientific basis, and their physical realism is often challenged. The stochastic energy backscatter method is one of the main formulations of stochastic physics. It is designed to stochastically simulate upscale cascades of energy coming from numerical dissipation, convective subgrid-scale events or subgrid mountain drag. This scheme has been successfully implemented in many of the most important numerical weather prediction models across the world. It improves the ensemble skill scores, and under some configurations the mean climate too. In order to understand the impacts of the stochastic energy backscatter concept in a deterministic framework, we use the Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB2) scheme in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). We explore the impact of SKEB2 across timescales and resolutions in terms of usual model evaluation metrics such as biases or root mean error square, as well as some process-based techniques to diagnose the simulation of tropical and extra-tropical variability, such as cyclone tracking, Lorenz Energy Cycle or Madden Julian Oscillation diagnostics. Our results show that the extra kinetic energy added by SKEB2 can improve the representation of key processes that drive the atmospheric variability, leading to a slight improvement of climate biases. However it degrades the skill of short-range (less than 5 days

  5. Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

  6. Climate variability in West Greenland during the past 1500 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    dos Santos Ribeiro, Sofia Isabel; Moros, Matthias; Ellegaard, Marianne

    2012-01-01

    document late-Holocene climate variability in West Greenland as inferred from a marine sediment record from the outer Disko Bay. Organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts and other palynomorphs were used to reconstruct environmental changes in the area through the last c. 1500 years at 30–40 years resolution......-surface temperatures in Disko Bay are out-of-phase with Greenland ice-core reconstructed temperatures and marine proxy data from South and East Greenland. This is probably governed by an NAO-type pattern, which results in warmer sea-surface conditions with less extensive sea ice in the area for the later part...

  7. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  8. Responses of Stormwater Runoff to Climate Variability and Urban Land Uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, S.; Abdul-Aziz, O.

    2012-12-01

    Stormwater runoff is often held responsible for urban flooding and poor water quality in urban streams and rivers. We have quantified stormwater runoff in the complex urban watershed of Miami River in Florida using a Stormwater Management Model (EPA SWMM 5.0) for a historical 10 year period (2001-10). Unlike traditional approaches, the research does not consider stormwater as a standalone hydrologic process. Instead, we have adopted a more comprehensive, watershed approach to resolve stromwater runoff as a component of the total watershed water budget by incorporating other components such as groundwater, surface water, climate variables, and land use features. Another novel contribution is that we have incorporated the complex network of canals and their contributions into the water budget of the Miami River Basin for determining the total stormwater runoff. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for this highly urbanized basin (draining to Biscayne Bay, Atlantic Ocean) to quantify and comprehend the roles of different climate and land use characteristics on stormwater generation. The runoff characteristics for low frequency and high magnitude (i.e., extreme events), as well as for high frequency and low magnitude (i.e., typical events), rainfall were investigated. The research offers insights into the vulnerability of stormwater runoff and management infrastructures to climate variability and urban land use changes. The outcomes would help to update the existing stormwater monitoring strategies, management plans and protocols in complex urban environments.

  9. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  10. Modeling recent climate change induced extreme events in Bangladesh: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rehan Dastagir

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is a resourceful and densely populated country that has been experiencing frequent disasters viz. cyclones, tidal surges, floods, salinity intrusions, droughts etc. which cause large damage to lives and properties every year. The frequency and intensity of the extreme events have increased significantly in recent decades due to climate change and global warming. This review paper synthesizes extreme climatic events in Bangladesh in the context of the climate modeling data. The modeling results of extreme events showed significant trends in Bangladesh due to climate change. The results of these climate models are significant to show the importance of climate modeling in Bangladesh and it will help to promote research on climate modeling in least developed countries like Bangladesh.

  11. Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Liam D; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and structure. ECEs are often poorly defined and have often been confusingly equated with climatic variability, making comparison between studies difficult. In addition, a focus on short-term studies has provided us with little information on the long-term implications of ECEs, and the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many studies has meant it is still unclear what the key research questions are. Synthesizing the current state of work is essential to identify ways to make progress. We conduct a synthesis of the literature and discuss conceptual and practical challenges faced by research on ECEs. We consider three steps to advance research. First, we discuss the importance of choosing an ECE definition and identify the pros and cons of 'climatological' and 'biological' definitions of ECEs. Secondly, we advocate research beyond short-term descriptive studies to address questions concerning the long-term implications of ECEs, focussing on selective pressures and phenotypically plastic responses and how they might differ from responses to a changing climatic mean. Finally, we encourage a greater focus on multi-event studies that help us understand the implications of changing patterns of ECEs, through the combined use of modelling, experimental and observational field studies. This study aims to open a discussion on the definitions, questions and methods currently used to study ECEs, which will lead to a more cohesive approach to future ECE research. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

  12. National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Jing-Li Fan; Qiao-Mei Liang; Xiao-Jie Liang; Hirokazu Tatano; Yoshio Kajitani; Yi-Ming Wei

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events are likely to adversely affect many countries throughout the world, but the degrees among countries may be different. China and Japan are the countries with high incidences of extreme weather/disaster, both facing with the urgent task of addressing climate change. This study seeks to quantitatively compare the impacts of extreme climatic events on socio-economic systems (defined as vulnerability) of the two countries by simulating the consequences of hypothetical the s...

  13. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

  14. Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

    2006-01-01

    Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  16. The Safe Yield and Climatic Variability: Implications for Groundwater Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loáiciga, Hugo A

    2017-05-01

    Methods for calculating the safe yield are evaluated in this paper using a high-quality and long historical data set of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in a karst aquifer. Consideration is given to the role that climatic variability has on the determination of a climatically representative period with which to evaluate the safe yield. The methods employed to estimate the safe yield are consistent with its definition as a long-term average extraction rate that avoids adverse impacts on groundwater. The safe yield is a useful baseline for groundwater planning; yet, it is herein shown that it is not an operational rule that works well under all climatic conditions. This paper shows that due to the nature of dynamic groundwater processes it may be most appropriate to use an adaptive groundwater management strategy that links groundwater extraction rates to groundwater discharge rates, thus achieving a safe yield that represents an estimated long-term sustainable yield. An example of the calculation of the safe yield of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas) demonstrates that it is about one-half of the average annual recharge. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

  17. Climate Impact Reporter: A New Tool for Archiving and Displaying Climate-related Impacts to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, N.; Shulski, M.; Lahowetz, J.; Sorensen, W.

    2014-12-01

    The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) has been providing users with custom climate services for over 25 years. Stakeholder needs in the High Plains Region have evolved over time from simple data requests to inquiries about the impacts of various climate-related events. At this time, climate impacts may be reported in numerous locations such as newspapers, scholarly journals, and extension articles. In order to meet the increasing demand for climate impact information, HPRCC is beta-testing an online tool which synthesizes, archives, and displays impacts related to extreme climate events from multiple sources. The tool is intended to fulfill the needs of two general types of users - those who need a place to archive climate impact information and those seeking such information. As such, there are two main components to the tool: 1) a back-end interface where an impact information database is populated and 2) a front-end interface where users may browse the impacts. On the front-end, users can select an area (i.e. river basin, state, county warning area) and search for climate-related impacts within that area. Key impacts include the following sectors: agriculture, ecosystems, energy, human health, society, transportation, and water resources. In this regard, information can also be useful for future National Climate Assessment activities. Ultimately, an understanding of impacts to extreme events by sector will provide critical information for improved decision-making and adaptation strategies.

  18. Climatic variability in sclerochronological records from the northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trofimova, T.; Andersson Dahl, C.; Bonitz, F. G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Highly resolved palaeoreconstructions that can extend instrumental records back through time is a fundament for our understanding of a climate of the last millennia. Only a few established extratropical marine paleo archives enable the reconstruction of key ocean processes at annual to sub-annual time scales. Bivalves have been shown to provide a useful archive with high temporal resolution. The species Arctica islandica is unique proxy due to its exceptional longevity combined with sensitivity to changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate variability on sclerochronological records of A. islandica from the Viking Bank in the northern North Sea. The hydrographical characteristics of this location are mainly controlled by the major inflow of Atlantic water in the North Sea and can potentially be reflected in the shell composition and growth of A. islandica. To reconstruct environment conditions, we use shells of living and subfossil specimens of A. islandica collected by dredging at depths around 100 meters. The annual growth bands within the shells were determined and growth increments widths were measured. By cross-matching 30 individual increment-width time series, we built an absolutely dated 265-year long shell-growth chronology spanning the time interval 1748-2013 AD. The relatively high Rbar (>0.5) and EPS (>0.85) values indicate a common environmental forcing on the shell growth within the population. The growth chronology preserves a 20-30 yr variability prior to 1900 which fades out towards the present. That change suggests a possible regime shift at the beginning of a 20th century. Ongoing work mainly focuses on comparing the shell-growth chronology with existing observational time series of climatic parameters to determine controlling factors and test the use of growth chronologies for climate reconstruction in this area. For reconstructing seasonality, we analyse the stable oxygen isotope composition of the

  19. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

  20. Replumbing of the Biological Pump caused by Millennial Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, E.; Sarmiento, J.

    2008-12-01

    It has been hypothesized that millennial-timescale variability in the biological pump was a critical instigator of glacial-interglacial cycles. However, even in the absence of changes in ecosystem function (e.g. due to iron fertilization), determining the mechanisms by which physical climate variability alters the biological pump is not simple. Changes in upper ocean circulation and deep water formation have previously been shown to alter both the downward flux of organic matter and the mass of respired carbon in the ocean interior, often in non- intuitive ways. For example, a reduced upward flux of nutrients at the global scale will decrease the global rate of export production, but it could either increase or decrease the respired carbon content of the ocean interior, depending on where the reduced upward flux of nutrients occurs. Furthermore, viable candidates for physical climate forcing are numerous, including changes in the westerly winds, changes in the depth of the thermocline, and changes in the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water, among others. We use a simple, prognostic, light-and temperature-dependent model of biogeochemical cycling within a state-of-the- art global coupled ocean-atmosphere model to examine the response of the biological pump to changes in the coupled Earth system over multiple centuries. The biogeochemical model explicitly distinguishes respired carbon from preformed and saturation carbon, allowing the activity of the biological pump to be clearly quantified. Changes are forced in the model by altering the background climate state, and by manipulating the flux of freshwater to the North Atlantic region. We show how these changes in the physical state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system impact the distribution and mass of respired carbon in the ocean interior, and the relationship these changes bear to global patterns of export production via the redistribution of nutrients.

  1. Water-borne Infections, Weather Variability and Climate Change in Eastern Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirrell, A.; Naumova, E. N.; Liss, A.

    2012-12-01

    For this project, a time-series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability and water-borne infectious diseases in several Siberian municipalities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in Eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings, and offer appropriate policy recommendations.

  2. Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

    2014-08-01

    The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Anticipating Future Extreme Climate Events for Alaska Using Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Alaska is projected to experience major changes in extreme climate during the 21st century, due to greenhouse warming and exacerbated by polar amplification, wherein the Arctic is warming at twice the rate compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Given its complex topography, Alaska displays extreme gradients of temperature and precipitation. However, global climate models (GCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution on the order of 100km, struggle to replicate these extremes. To help resolve this issue, this study employs dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations and quantile-mapping methodologies to provide a full suite of daily model variables at 20 km spatial resolution for Alaska, from 1970 to 2100. These data include downscaled products of the: ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015, GFDL-CM3 historical from 1970 to 2005, and GFDL-CM3 RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2100. Due to the limited nature of long-term observations and high-resolution modeling in Alaska, these data enable a broad expansion of extremes analysis. This study uses these data to highlight a subset of the 27 climate extremes indices, previously defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, as they pertain to climate change in Alaska. These indices are based on the statistical distributions of daily surface temperature and precipitation and focus on threshold exceedance, and percentiles. For example, the annual number of days with a daily maximum temperature greater than 25°C is anticipated to triple in many locations in Alaska by the end of the century. Climate extremes can also refer to long duration events, such as the record-setting warmth that defined the 2015-16 cold season in Alaska. The downscaled climate model simulations indicate that this past winter will be considered normal by as early as the mid-2040s, if we continue to warm according to the business-as-usual RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. This represents an accelerated warming as compared to projections

  4. Current and future climate variability associated with wintertime precipitation in alpine Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddes, Sonya Louise; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes

    2015-05-01

    The Australian Alps, located in the southeast corner of the continent, are home to important ecologies and industries, including water supply, hydroelectricity and ski resorts. Sharp topography and prevailing westerly winds generate a unique microclimate with cool temperatures and abundant precipitation and is crucial to much of greater southeastern Australia's water supply. Here we study the western, high and eastern slopes separately, exploring the global climate drivers associated with wintertime precipitation variability. The results show that while total precipitation is significantly declining on the western and high slopes, the total rain is not significantly changing on the eastern side. These differing trends are thought be a result of the changing nature of the westerly storm track and the subtropical ridge. Interestingly, the west/high wintertime rainfall decline is seen primarily as a reduction in the intensity of events, as the number of rainfall days per season has remained relatively constant throughout the analysis. The synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation are identified and shown to be well correlated with the total seasonal precipitation, suggesting a great importance of the extreme weather signatures in modulating the longer term climate. This correlation is used to calculate a number of climate indices relying on dynamical indicators such as pressure and temperature gradients, helping simulate the rainfall variability within the area. By exploring contrasting Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 models from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industry Research Organization's Representative Climate Futures Framework, we estimate using indices of the circulation dynamics that the west/high wintertime rainfall trend will continue to decline whilst rainfall in the eastern region will remain relatively stable. This result adds new light into future precipitation trends for the area, given the intrinsic difficulty of climate models

  5. Cholera and Shigellosis: Different Epidemiology but Similar Responses to Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Benjamin A.; Rodó, Xavier; Emch, Michael; Yunus, Md.; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Background Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate. Methods and Findings The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event. Conclusions The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an

  6. Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin A Cash

    Full Text Available Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate.The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event.The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of

  7. Simulation of Greenhouse Climate Monitoring and Control with Wireless Sensor Network and Event-Based Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Pawlowski

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results.

  8. Towards an Event Based Indicator for Monitoring Change in Extreme Precipitation in Support of the US National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Recent observational analysis suggests increasing trends in precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS) consistent with expectations associated with anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. In support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment (NCA), we present a gridded climate indicator, based on high-resolution gridded NASA satellite-based precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) product, to monitor and track extreme precipitation events over the CONUS. The indicator is based on categorized storm totals over the CONUS defined as 3-day total accumulated precipitation events, ensuring a spatially and temporally balanced regional representation of synoptic-scale and short-duration storm events alike. A precipitation categorization scheme mirroring that of the widely understood Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity index is assigned to each 3-day precipitation event with each precipitation category referred to as a P-Cat. The magnitude of each event lies between P-Cat 1, the lightest category of storm totals, and P-Cat 5, the heaviest, allowing for easy interpretation and visualization. With all precipitation events assigned to a P-Cat, point-wise statistics are computed across the CONUS including the maximum P-Cat, the mean P-Cat, and the frequency of each P-Cat at each grid point providing a comprehensive climatology of precipitation event intensity and a baseline for monitoring change. A novel aspect of this indicator is that it will accurately display discernable spatial variations with regional specificity in extreme precipitation event frequency and intensity over relevant temporal scales. Changes in variability will be observable at

  9. Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

    2010-01-01

    The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

  10. Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin; Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The study of regional climate changes for past 2000 year could present spatial pattern of climate variation and various historical analogues for the sensitivity and operation of the climate system (e.g., the modulations of internal variability, feedbacks and teleconnections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events, etc.) from inter-annual to centennial scales and provide the knowledge to predict and project climate in the near future. China is distinguished by a prominent monsoon climate in east, continental arid climate in northwest and high land cold climate in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau located at southwest. The long history of civilization and the variety of climate in China provides an abundant and well-dated documentary records and a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-ring, ice core, stalagmite, varved lake sediment, etc.) for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. This paper presented a review of recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. In recent 10 years, there were many new high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reported in China, e.g., the annual and decadal resolution series of temperature and precipitation in eastern China derived from historical documents, in western China derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. These new reconstructions provided more proxies and better spatial coverage to understand the characteristics of climate change over China and the uncertainty of regional reconstructions, as well as to reconstruct the high-resolution temperature series and the spatial pattern of precipitation change for whole China in the past millenniums by synthesizing the multi-proxy together. The updated results show that, in China, the warm intervals for the past 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921; as well as the cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. The extreme cold winters occurred in periods

  11. Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2017-05-01

    While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.Plain Language SummaryWhile the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds. Here we show that climate models simulate a high level of internal variability, so that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific could still be due to natural processes.

  12. Interactive effects of elevation, species richness and extreme climatic events on plant-pollinator networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoiss, Bernhard; Krauss, Jochen; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

    2015-11-01

    Plant-pollinator interactions are essential for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, but are increasingly affected by global change. The risks to such mutualistic interactions from increasing temperature and more frequent extreme climatic events such as drought or advanced snow melt are assumed to depend on network specialization, species richness, local climate and associated parameters such as the amplitude of extreme events. Even though elevational gradients provide valuable model systems for climate change and are accompanied by changes in species richness, responses of plant-pollinator networks to climatic extreme events under different environmental and biotic conditions are currently unknown. Here, we show that elevational climatic gradients, species richness and experimentally simulated extreme events interactively change the structure of mutualistic networks in alpine grasslands. We found that the degree of specialization in plant-pollinator networks (H2') decreased with elevation. Nonetheless, network specialization increased after advanced snow melt at high elevations, whereas changes in network specialization after drought were most pronounced at sites with low species richness. Thus, changes in network specialization after extreme climatic events depended on climatic context and were buffered by high species richness. In our experiment, only generalized plant-pollinator networks changed in their degree of specialization after climatic extreme events. This indicates that contrary to our assumptions, network generalization may not always foster stability of mutualistic interaction networks. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, Robert A.; Power, Scott B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2010-06-15

    to mid-latitude response seen under secular climate change. Surface albedo feedback is, however, slightly stronger under interannual variability - partly due to regions of extremely weak, or even negative, feedback over Antarctic sea ice in the transient experiment. Both long and shortwave global cloud feedbacks are essentially zero on interannual timescales, with the shortwave term also being very weak under climate change, although cloud fraction and optical property components show correlation with global temperature both under interannual variability and transient climate change. The results of this modelling study, although for a single model only, suggest that the analogues provided by interannual variability may provide some useful pointers to some aspects of climate change feedback strength, particularly for water vapour and surface albedo, but that structural differences will need to be heeded in such an analysis. (orig.)

  14. Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio

  15. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal Romeo Upperman

    Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

  16. Reconstruction of interannual Antarctic climate variability from ice cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steig, E. J.; Schneider, D. P.

    2004-05-01

    Antarctica represents a significant gap in efforts to achieve reliable reconstructions of interannual to century-scale climate variability. A reliable reconstruction of Antarctic climate on these timescales requires obtaining precisely dated ice cores at high temporal resolution, and with sufficient spatial coverage to adequately capture large-scale climate variability. Ice cores retrieved by the International TransAntarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) program are a major step towards this goal. As part of US ITASE, ice cores were obtained from twenty-three sites that are widely distributed across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, providing continuous records of snow chemistry covering at least 200 years. These cores have been dated at better-than-annual resolution, primarily though the identification of summer peaks in non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO{4}). Validation of the timescales was achieved through independent identification of other seasonal variations and marker horizons. Dating precision to within 1-2 months is demonstrated by the occurrence of spring-time nitrate peaks ~3 months before the nss-SO{4} maxima, by the identification of distinct mid-winter warming in some years in both instrumental temperature records and stable isotope ratios, and by the timing of hydrogen peroxide maxima. Dating accuracy to within ±1 one year is demonstrated by volcanic marker horizons, Tambora (1815-1816) being the most prominent. Additional validation of the ±1 year accuracy is provided by the tracing of isochronal layers from site to site using high-frequency ice penetrating radar observations. Reconstruction of climate variability from the ice core data is achieved in three stages. First, satellite-derived anomalies are used to define characteristic patterns of Antarctic temperature variability by conventional EOF analysis; this provides approximately 20 years of monthly data. Using instrumental weather station data (largely from the Antarctic coastline)] as predictor

  17. Helpful and Hindering Multicultural Events in Group Supervision: Climate and Multicultural Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaduvettoor, Anju; O'Shaughnessy, Tiffany; Mori, Yoko; Beverly, Clyde, III; Weatherford, Ryan D.; Ladany, Nicholas

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between multicultural events in group supervision, group climate, and supervisee multicultural competence using a mixed qualitative/quantitative design. The discovery-oriented approach yielded 196 helpful and hindering multicultural events among 136 participants. The most common events included multicultural…

  18. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  19. Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

    2017-04-01

    South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

  20. Spatial variability in forest growth—climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill M. Nakawatase; David L. Peterson

    2006-01-01

    For many Pacific Northwest forests, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability in tree growth - climate relationships, yet it is this information that is needed to predict how forests will respond to future climatic change. We studied the effects of climatic variability on forest growth at 74 plots in the western and northeastern Olympic Mountains....

  1. Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

    2017-09-01

    Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

  2. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi province under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; Zhao, Yong; He, Hailong; He, Guohua

    2017-11-01

    Extreme climate index is one of the useful tools to monitor and detect climate change. The primary objective of this study is to provide a more comprehensively the changes in extreme precipitation between the periods of 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 in Shaanxi province under climate change, which will hopefully provide a scientific understanding of the precipitation-related natural hazards such as flood and drought. Daily precipitation from 34 surface meteorological stations were used to calculated 13 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) generated by the joint World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (CCI)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) expect Team on climate change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Two periods including 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 were selected and five types of precipitation days (R10mm-R100mm) were defined, to provide more evidences of climate change impacts on the extreme precipitation events, and specially, to investigate the changes in different types of precipitation days. The EPIs were generated using RClimRex software, and the trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Sen's slope estimator. The relationships between the EPIs and the impacts of climate anomalies on typical EPIs were investigated using correlation and composite analysis. The mainly results include: 1) Thirteen EPIs, except consecutive dry day (CDD), were positive trends dominated for the period of 1984-2013, but the trends were not obvious for the period of 1954-1983. Most of the trends were not statistically significant at 5 % significance level. 2) The spatial distributions of stations that exhibited positive and negative trends were scattered. However, the stations that had negative trends mainly distributed in the north of Shaanxi province, and the stations that had positive trends mainly located in the south. 3) The percentage of stations that had positive

  3. A Multi-Proxy Perspective on Climate Variability in the Tropical Pacific over the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Terrence; Partin, Jud; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Hereid, Kelly; Maupin, Chris; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Taylor, Fred

    2014-05-01

    The southwest Pacific is a major source of tropical climate variability through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). These variations are especially significant at the annual, ENSO, and multi-decadal timescales. Climate proxy records from the tropical Pacific must be used to extend records of SST, SSS, and rainfall variations into the pre-instrumental period. We highlight our recent efforts to quantitatively understand tropical climate variability over the last millennium using numerical simulations and climate proxy records (corals and stalagmites), the latter of which overlap with, and extend beyond the instrumental period. We investigate the use of individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA) in assessing past ENSO variability using numerical simulations. The simulation quantifies the sensitivity of IFA to ENSO amplitude and seasonal cycle amplitude (or a combination of both) at different locations in the tropical Pacific. Results indicate that IFA sensitivity towards ENSO is highest at the central equatorial Pacific surface ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) thermocline, whereas sensitivity towards the seasonal cycle is highest at the EEP surface ocean. We investigate tropical surface ocean variability using two recent coral-based climate reconstructions: a 233 yr record from Misima Island, Papua New Guinea (10.6° S, 152.8° E) and a 293 yr record from Olasana Island, Western Province, Solomon Islands (8.2° S, 157.2° E). The PNG coral record of monthly resolved δ18O and Sr/Ca variations spans the interval ~1414-1645. This record indicates that the surface ocean in this region experienced a small change in hydrologic balance with no change in temperature, extended periods of quiescence in El Niño activity, and no change in average amplitudes of El Niño events relative to signals captured in regional modern records. The Solomon coral δ18O record (1716

  4. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  5. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  6. Nevada Monitoring System to Assess Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devitt, D. A.; Arnone, J.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Saito, L.; Young, M.; Riddle, B.; Strachan, S. D.; Bird, B.; McCurdy, G.; Lyles, B. F.

    2010-12-01

    The Nevada System of Higher Education (University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Nevada Reno and the Desert Research Institute) was awarded a multiyear NSF EPSCoR grant to support infrastructure associated with regional climate change research. The overall project is comprised of 5 components: education, cyberinfrastructure, policy, climate modeling and water/ecology. The water and ecology components are using their infrastructure funding for the assessment of climate variability and change on ecosystem function and hydrologic services. A series of 10 m tall towers are under construction and are being equipped with a wide array of sensors to monitor atmospheric, soil and plant parameters over time. The towers are located within the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts in two transects; the Mojave Desert transect is located in the southern Nevada Sheep Mountain Range and the Great Basin transect is located in the east central Nevada Snake Mountain Range. The towers are centrally positioned in well-defined vegetation zones. In southern Nevada these zones are represented by the following plant species: Creosote/Bursage (Creosotebush scrub zone); Blackbrush/Joshua Tree (Blackbrush zone); Pinyon/ Juniper (pygmy conifer zone), Ponderosa Pine (montane zone) and Bristlecone Pine (subalpine zone). The Snake Mountain transect incorporates the eastern and western valleys on both sides of the mountain range. The vegetation zones are represented by: Greasewood and mixed shrub (salt desert zone); Big Sage (sagebrush zone); Pinyon/Juniper (pygmy conifer zone); White/Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine and Aspen (montane zone); and Bristlecone/Limber Pine and Engelmann Spruce (subalpine zone). We are currently in the third year of funding with a goal of having the majority of towers fully operational by winter 2010. In close collaboration with our cyberinfrastructure component team, all data acquired from the transect monitoring stations will be made available to other researchers and the

  7. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  8. Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Brian K; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

  9. Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the

  10. Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, D.; Bárdossy, A.; Lourmas, G.

    2006-06-01

    To investigate the character of daily rainfall variability under present and future climate described via global warming a suite of diagnostic statistics was used. The rainfall was modeled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. In this study we used an automated objective classification of daily patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. This kind of classification method provided circulation patterns suitable for downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM)-generated precipitation. The precipitation diagnostics included first and second order moments, wet and dry-day renewal process probabilities and spell lengths as well as low-frequency variability via the standard deviation of monthly totals. These descriptors were applied to nine elevation zones and entire area of the Mesochora mountainous catchment in Central Greece for observed, 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 downscaled precipitation. The statistics' comparison revealed significant differences in the most of the daily diagnostics (e.g. mean wet-day amount, 95th percentile of wet-day amount, dry to wet probability), spell statistics (e.g. mean wet/dry spell length), and low-frequency diagnostic (standard deviation of monthly precipitation total) between warm (2×CO2) and observed scenario in a progressive rate from lower to upper zone. The differences were very greater for the catchment area. In the light of these results, an increase in rainfall occurrence with diminished rainfall amount and a sequence of less consecutive dry days could describe the behaviour of a possible future climate on the examined catchment.

  11. Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Panagoulia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the character of daily rainfall variability under present and future climate described via global warming a suite of diagnostic statistics was used. The rainfall was modeled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. In this study we used an automated objective classification of daily patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. This kind of classification method provided circulation patterns suitable for downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM-generated precipitation. The precipitation diagnostics included first and second order moments, wet and dry-day renewal process probabilities and spell lengths as well as low-frequency variability via the standard deviation of monthly totals. These descriptors were applied to nine elevation zones and entire area of the Mesochora mountainous catchment in Central Greece for observed, 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 downscaled precipitation. The statistics' comparison revealed significant differences in the most of the daily diagnostics (e.g. mean wet-day amount, 95th percentile of wet-day amount, dry to wet probability, spell statistics (e.g. mean wet/dry spell length, and low-frequency diagnostic (standard deviation of monthly precipitation total between warm (2×CO2 and observed scenario in a progressive rate from lower to upper zone. The differences were very greater for the catchment area. In the light of these results, an increase in rainfall occurrence with diminished rainfall amount and a sequence of less consecutive dry days could describe the behaviour of a possible future climate on the examined catchment.

  12. Solar Variability and Climate Change in the Last 2000 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, K.; Yau, K.

    2002-12-01

    Studying past climatic data can help us better understand present natural variations and predict future trends. Identification of cycles can be useful to forecasting. However, various reconstructions of the climate of the last 1000 years have given only broad similarities, with large variances in time and space [Briffa JGR 106, 2929, 2001]. For example, during the Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800) severe winters were frequent in Europe and China, but not over Greenland [Sci. Amer., 2/1992, 21]. The differences in modeling results are partly due to uncertainties in the past radiative forcing [Mann, Eos 82 (46), 2001]. Another outstanding question is whether we are in a time similar to Medieval Warm Period. From the frequencies of sunspot and aurora sightings, abundance of carbon-14 in the rings of long-lived trees, and beryllium-10 in the annual layers of polar ice cores, we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of changes in brightness. While these long-term changes account for less than one percent of the total irradiance, there is a clear evidence that they affect the climate. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) few sunspots were seen--about 1 in 10 yr from China or Europe--indicative of a weak Sun. Eddy [Science 192, 1189, 1976] used historical aurora, C-14 and climate data to confirm its reality, and link it to the Little Ice Age. Using new historical sunspot catalogues [Yau, Quart. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 29, 175, 1988], we have identified or confirmed earlier solar minima at 200-300, 400-500, 580-820, 980-1070, 1280-1350, 1410-1590; and maxima at 1080-1280, 1350-1400, etc. All these features are coincident with respective minima or maxima in the frequency of aurora sightings from Europe or Asia. Both time series are in turn consistent with radioisotope data [Pang, Eos. 9/2002]. Carbon-14 and beryllium-10 are made by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is active the solar

  13. Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI): An Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed a conceptual model of climate resilience (CRSI – Climate Resilience Screening Index ) designed to be sensitive to changes in the natural environment, built environment, governance, and social structure and vulnerability or risk to climate events. CRSI has been ...

  14. Does Variability across Events Affect Verb Learning in English, Mandarin, and Korean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childers, Jane B.; Paik, Jae H.; Flores, Melissa; Lai, Gabrielle; Dolan, Megan

    2017-01-01

    Extending new verbs is important in becoming a productive speaker of a language. Prior results show children have difficulty extending verbs when they have seen events with varied agents. This study further examines the impact of variability on verb learning and asks whether variability interacts with event complexity or differs by language.…

  15. Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Janardan Mainali; John All; Pramod Kumar Jha; Dinesh Raj Bhuju

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Climate changes are having dramatic ecological impacts in mid- to high-latitude mountain ranges where growth conditions are limited by climatic variables such as duration of growing season...

  16. Streamflow variability response to climate change and cascade dams development in a coastal China watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenyu; Huang, Jinliang; Huang, Yaling; Hong, Huasheng

    2015-12-01

    Coastal watersheds and their changes in streamflow have become a particular concern in hydrology and water resource management. The ecohydrologic analysis and environmental flow component were coupled in this study to assess the streamflow variability response to climate change and human activities in the Jiulong River Watershed (JRW). Results showed that human activities were the main contributing factors to decreasing streamflow in the JRW. Available water resources decreased by 4.34% and 3.17% in the North River and West River, respectively. In addition to climate change, watershed characteristics partly influenced the streamflow quantity and regime in the North River and West River. The cascade dam construction along the mainstream of the JRW, which made the water bodies from free-flowing rivers to cascade lakes, altered the patterns of streamflow regime in terms of low and high flow events, as well as the flood pattern. The monthly low flow increased in almost all seasons; the high flow pulses homogenized; and little variation in the flood pattern was detected within the JRW. We present a case study in a southeast coastal watershed to illustrate a combined approach that could facilitate to evaluate the streamflow variability in terms of streamflow quantity and regime response to climate change and cascade dams development in two adjacent rivers within the JRW, which could hopefully provide water managers on the strategies to fight the effect of environmental changes on watershed ecosystem.

  17. Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

    2017-11-20

    Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Event Detection Using "Variable Module Graphs" for Home Care Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sethi Amit

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Technology has reached new heights making sound and video capture devices ubiquitous and affordable. We propose a paradigm to exploit this technology for home care applications especially for surveillance and complex event detection. Complex vision tasks such as event detection in a surveillance video can be divided into subtasks such as human detection, tracking, recognition, and trajectory analysis. The video can be thought of as being composed of various features. These features can be roughly arranged in a hierarchy from low-level features to high-level features. Low-level features include edges and blobs, and high-level features include objects and events. Loosely, the low-level feature extraction is based on signal/image processing techniques, while the high-level feature extraction is based on machine learning techniques. Traditionally, vision systems extract features in a feed-forward manner on the hierarchy, that is, certain modules extract low-level features and other modules make use of these low-level features to extract high-level features. Along with others in the research community, we have worked on this design approach. In this paper, we elaborate on recently introduced V/M graph. We present our work on using this paradigm for developing applications for home care applications. Primary objective is surveillance of location for subject tracking as well as detecting irregular or anomalous behavior. This is done automatically with minimal human involvement, where the system has been trained to raise an alarm when anomalous behavior is detected.

  19. Grazing and climatic variability in Sajama National Park, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yager, K.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Sajama National Park, the first protected area in Bolivia, includes five indigenous communities with a primary production base of pastoralism. The semi-arid region of the Central Andes is one of the most extreme areas of human occupation at 4200 meters altitude and affected by high climatic variability. This paper studies the relations between climate variability, resilience, biodiversity of pastures and pastoral production in Sajama National Park. We present a botanical study of palatable pasture herbs between two years, one humid (2006 and the other dry (2007. Thirty vascular plants were recorded. The number of species and the cover of iro (Festuca ortophylla peak in areas of intermediate disturbance; areas that are at a medium distance from camelid corrals. On the other hand, the cover of ephemeral plants between tussocks increases in high disturbance areas. This is interpreted as a result of the tradeoff between the damage of grazing and the benefit of the fertilization produced by the herding animals. The local people clearly perceive strong impacts of climate change, combined with changes in management and human pressures. The social dynamics and production management, combined with climate warming, water reduction, and the increasing variability of surface water regimes create potential risks for the local sustainability of pastoralism.

    El Parque Nacional Sajama, la primer área protegida de Bolivia, incluye a cinco comunidades indígenas con una base de producción principalmente de ganadería. Esta región semi-árida de los Andes Centrales es una de las áreas más extremas de ocupación humana a 4200 metros de altura y es afectada por una alta variabilidad climática. Este trabajo considera las relaciones entre la variabilidad climática, resiliencia, biodiversidad de pastos y la producción ganadera en el Parque Nacional Sajama. Presentamos un estudio botánico de las comunidades de hierbas palatables a lo largo de dos a

  20. Exstreme Hydrological Events - Drought and Flood in Context of Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakova, S.

    2009-04-01

    fifteen years. The water resources of the country, generated in this very wet 2005 year amounted to 27391x10 6 m 3, which corresponds to 13% Probability of occurrence. The impact of climate change have been evaluated by transferring changes of precipitation and temperature, as output variables from regional climate change models, to hydrological models. Two climate models HadCM2 and ECHAM4 have been selected and used from the MAGICC/SCENGEN package (Models for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change/ SCENario GENerator) because they are produced in Europe and are the most suitable for the European conditions. These models were applied to the real data of two representative basins: of the Osam river (in North Bulgaria-continental climate) and the Struma river (in South Bulgaria - Continental-Mediterranean climate). The flow of both the rivers is strongly influenced by human activities, what imposes a naturalization of the flow to be determined. The analysis of the potential impact of climate change on the flow of two representative Bulgarian rivers showed decreasing of the runoff. The degree of the decrease of runoff varies regarding the assumed time horizons, but exhibits acceleration towards 2100. The second order tributaries will be dry towards 2050, 2100. The magnitude of runoff decrease changes from north to south. Moving in the direction of seasonal horizons, the discharge during the summer will be rapidly decreased (most significantly in July and August) according to the results used by the HadCM2 model. Since ECHAM4 models mark high values of precipitations in July and August, floods will be in these months. During the other seasons, the runoff will gradually decrease. The size of decrease of low flow will be greater according to the HadCM4 scenario. Keywords: drought ,flood, hydrological extreme events, water resources management

  1. Variability in climatic productivity of paddy rice in japan

    OpenAIRE

    Sugihara, Yasuyuki

    1985-01-01

    The regionaliy of climatic productivity was examined from the viewpoints of seasonal variation and temperature characteristics of climatic productivity. The obtained climatic divisions are types A1 (coldest), A2 (cold), A3 (moderate), B (warmtransitional), C (warm), and D (warmest). The long-range changes of climatic productivity for 6 stations representative of each agro-climatic division were obtained. The productivities of Asahikawa, Morioka, and Saga clearly indicate maximum or minimum va...

  2. Deep convective events influence ozone variability in southeast South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamelin, B.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2016-12-01

    When tropospheric greenhouse gasses are deposited in the stratosphere (especially water vapor) the system chemically responds with incoming solar radiation to destroy ozone. As a result, these processes have a cooling effect on the stratosphere, and a warming effect in the troposphere. Areas in South America influenced by the South Atlantic Convergent Zone, the Chaco Low, and South American Low Level Jet are associated with large mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and are experiencing decreased ozone levels above 150 mb. Utilizing Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) V6 level 3 data from 2002 to 2016, deep convective events are identified in Southeast South America between 22°S - 36°S (Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Southern Paraguay and Northeast Argentina) and analyzed as a contributor to changes in the upper tropopause-lower stratosphere (UTLS) ozone during the austral spring. These events are established to identify the transport of tropospheric greenhouse gasses to the lower stratosphere (especially water vapor and methane) related to ozone loss between 150 - 10 mb due to direct injection above the cold point tropopause, determine UTLS temperature variations, and classify lower stratospheric hydration.

  3. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  4. Characteristics that Help Households Weather Climate Variability, Now and in the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, J. G.; Seth, A.

    2002-05-01

    A number of characteristics of rural livelihood management are directly related to improving resilience against the impacts of seasonal variability in climate, such as diversification of crops or income strategies. However, traditional strategies that confer resilience to the household may be difficult to sustain in the modern era. Additionally, the frequency and distribution of extreme rainfall events or seasons may change as the composition of the atmosphere is altered. In order to reverse a potential negative trend in the ability of developing country households to handle climate shocks, we suggest that three key components of the system will need to be strengthened. The first is baseline resilience, which we suggest is primarily a function of a) diversification of income opportunities, and b) storage capacity for consumption smoothing (water reservoirs, soil moisture holding capacity, mechanisms for saving wealth from season to season such as granaries, animals, or bank accounts). The second is access to, and ability to effectively utilize, new information. The third is a supportive economic and policy environment such as access to crop insurance, functional markets, credit. By improving climate information systems and building skills to comprehend and utilize climate information in decision-making, adjustments at the seasonal time scale will add to the ability to withstand climate shocks and take advantage of opportunities. The combination of baseline resilience and ability to respond to new information will contribute substantially to rural households' ability to adapt to changing climate conditions in the next century. Experiences from East and Southern Africa will be used to illustrate these points.

  5. Intense drought and flooding events in the Rio Negro and relation with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoli, Rita Valéria; da Silva, Simone Nazaré Rodriguez; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Garcia, Sâmia Regina; Capistrano, Vinícius Buscioli; Armijos, Elisa

    2017-07-01

    The relationship of the hydrological variability of the Rio Negro in Manaus and the dominant large-scale climate variability patterns for the 1902-2007 period is investigated using the quantile method and composite analyses. Variations of the Rio Negro Level (RNL) during its 3-month high (May to July—MJJ) and low (October to December—OND) phases are examined separately. The El Niño (La Niña) related maximum warming (cooling) in the central tropical Pacific during its mature and decaying stages modulates the atmospheric circulation in the tropics and displaces the Walker circulation cell eastward (westward), so that its sinking (rising) branch occurs over western Amazon and causes negative (positive) precipitation anomalies in this region. These anomalous climate conditions occur before the Rio Negro high phase (MJJ) and contribute to reduce (increase) the RNL and lead to a very low (very high) event in the river. On the other hand, the SST variability modes in the tropical Atlantic mainly during the transition from wet to dry season modulate the precipitation variations over western Amazon in OND. The very high events are more frequent after the 1960's decade and the very low events, before the 1930's decade. Therefore, the occurrence of these events contains a multidecadal scale variability. The results also indicate that the variations in the rainfall in western Amazon occur up to 9 months in advance and modulate the RNL in Manaus. The results presented here might be useful for monitoring purposes of the RNL.

  6. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiersma, A.P.; Jongma, J.I.

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an

  7. Seasonality variations in the Central Mediterranean during climate change events in the Late Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M.-L.S.; Reichart, G.J.; Wit, J.C.; de Nooijer, L.J.; Grauel, A.-L.; Bernasconi, S. M.; de Lange, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) events, such as the Little Ice Age (LIA), are thought to have influenced average annual temperatures only marginally, but to have affected winter temperatures relatively strongly. With summer temperatures relatively unaffected, reconstructing climate change at a

  8. Tackling extremes: Challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, Liam; Van de Pol, M.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies – though few on animals – suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited

  9. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

    2017-02-01

    The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

  10. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

    2017-12-01

    The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

  11. Actual vs. Perceived Climate Variability among Smallholding Rice Farmers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrico, A.; Gilligan, J. M.; Truelove, H. B.

    2016-12-01

    It is recognized that those engaged in resource-dependent livelihoods often hold extensive knowledge of their surrounding environment that, in some cases, facilitates sustainable practices and adaptation to environmental shocks. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of how actors at this scale perceive, understand, and respond to climate variability, particularly in the absence of good information. There are further unanswered questions about how these perceptions translate into livelihood decisions. In this paper, we use data collected in 2015 from 607 paddy farmers living in 12 villages throughout the heavily agricultural dry zone of Sri Lanka. Farmers were asked to report their perceptions of decadal scale changes in temperature and rainfall along a number of dimensions (e.g., annual rainfall, onset of monsoon rains, frequency of droughts, temperature). These data are compared to local meteorological data collected over the same time period to examine the perceptions of meteorological trends. Furthermore, we examine heterogeneity in perceptions as a function of demographic factors, reliance on irrigation, use of agricultural technology, and other socioeconomic characteristics of the farmer. The impact of perceptions on agricultural practices such as crop selection and water management, and resultant yields, will also be examined. Preliminary results based on five communities suggest a strong negativity bias in perceptions, with widespread agreement that meteorological conditions have become less hospitable for farming. Perceptions of temperature changes largely corresponded to meteorological records; however, perceptions of rainfall changes did not. There was some evidence that length of time spent in a village and the presence of elders in the household was associated with perceptions that more closely corresponded to the observed meteorological data. Updated analyses based on the complete data set will be presented. We will discuss the

  12. Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Matthew, Olaniran J.; Odedokun, Sola

    2013-07-01

    Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031-2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981-2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate

  13. climate change and variability: smallholder farming communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Common coping strategies included early planting which was the more ... Key Words: Access to climate information, causes of climate change, coping strategies, farmer ..... content before marketing of produce. .... on field positioning and type.

  14. North Atlantic climate variability recorded in reef corals from Bermuda.

    OpenAIRE

    Draschba , S.

    1999-01-01

    Climate sensitive proxies can open windows into tines, for which instrumental observations are lacking. A strong tool for gaining insight into climate changes through the most recent geological period of the past several centuries, is the use of massive reef coral skeletons. The research reported in this thesis analyzes climate sensitive coral proxy records from Bermuda and is directed at characterizing seasonal, inter-annual and long-term climate fluctuations relevant to the western Sargasso...

  15. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014. pdf

  16. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 1, 06 Sep (2013), s. 4481-4510 ISSN 2195-9269 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/1/4481/2013/nhessd-1-4481-2013. pdf

  17. Climatic Events and Historical Disturbances Control Acute and Chronic Water-Quality Impairment After Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, S. F.; Martin, D. A.; McCleskey, R. B.; Writer, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Many studies have shown that surface water quality can be impaired after wildfire. The majority of these studies are typically conducted for short periods (1-2 years), and until recently, usually employed routine (fixed-interval) sampling. We monitored stream water quality for five years after a wildfire in the Colorado Front Range using a combination of routine sampling, storm sampling, and continuous sensors. This five-year study facilitated the measurement of post-wildfire water-quality response to a number of climatic events, including low- to moderate-intensity rain storms, drought, extreme rainfall (based on amount of rain that fell in a 7-day period), and the highest spring runoff recorded from the watershed during 23 years of record. Post-wildfire water quality was controlled by the hydrologic response to these climatic events, and by a legacy of historical disturbance from mining and related activities. Increased surface runoff during rain storms led to mobilization of sediment from hillslopes to stream channels. The sediment remained in stream channels during a drought that led to reduced (25% of mean) spring runoff, but this sediment, and associated constituents such as dissolved organic carbon and manganese, were remobilized into the water column and transported downstream during sustained high-flow spring runoff in the third year. We infer that the relative proportions of surface and subsurface runoff were altered by the wildfire and during the extreme rainfall, possibly leading to greater flow through abandoned mine adits and tunnels, and thus causing increased instream metal concentrations (such as arsenic and manganese). Post-wildfire water-quality issues were both acute, with significant water-quality impairment during storm events, and chronic, with elevated concentrations of sediment, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, manganese, and arsenic for months to years after the wildfire. Such variable source water quality, in both contaminant type and

  18. Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Makris, Christos V.; Baltikas, Vassilis N.; Krestenitis, Yannis N.

    2015-09-01

    The trends of storm surge extremes in the Mediterranean Sea for a period of 150 years (1951-2100) are explored, using a high-resolution storm surge model. Numerical simulations are forced by the output of regional climate simulations with RegCM3, which uses IPCC's historical data on greenhouse gasses emissions for the (past) period 1951-2000, and IPCC's A1B climate scenario for the (future) period 2001-2100. Comparisons between observations and modeling results show good agreement and confirm the ability of our model to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We investigate the future trends, the variability and frequency of local extremes and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean region. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario, mostly related to the frequency of local peaks and the duration and spatial coverage of the storm surges. The northward shift in the location of storm tracks is a possible reason for this storminess attenuation, especially over areas where the main driving factor of extreme events is the inverted barometer effect. However, the magnitudes of sea surface elevation extremes may increase in several Mediterranean sub-regions, i.e., Southern Adriatic, Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas, during the 21st century. There are clear distinctions in the contributions of winds and pressure fields to the sea level height for various regions of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the seasonal variability of extreme values; the Aegean and Adriatic Seas are characteristic examples, where high surges are predicted to be mainly induced by low pressure systems and favorable winds, respectively.

  19. The Effect of Regional Climate Variability on Outbreak of Bartonellosis Epidemics in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jia-Yu; Lau, K.-M.; Laughlin, Larry W.; Masuoka, Penny M.; Andre, Richard G.; Chamberlin, Judith; Lawyer, Phillip; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Bartonellosis is a vector-borne, highly fatal, emerging infectious disease, which has been known in the Peruvian Andes since the early 1600s and has continued to be a problem in many mountain valleys in Peru and other Andean South American countries. The causative bacterium, Bartonella bacilliformis (Bb), is believed to be transmitted to humans by bites of the sand fly Lutzomyia verrucarum. According to available medical records, the transmission of infection often occurs in river valleys of the Andes Mountains at an altitude between 800 and 3500 meters above sea level. It shows a seasonal pattern, which usually begins to rise in December, peaks in February and March, and is at its lowest from July until November. The epidemics of bartonellosis also vary interannually, occurring every four to eight years, and appear to be associated with the El Nino cycle. In response to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcement on climate variability and human health, which was constructed to stimulate integrated multidisciplinary research in the area of climate variability and health interactions, we have conducted a study to investigate the relationship between the El Nino induced regional climate variation and the outbreak of bartonellosis epidemics in Peru. Two test sites, Caraz and Cusco, were selected for this study. According to reports, Caraz has a long-standing history of endemic transmission and Cusco, which is located about five degrees poleward of Caraz, had no recorded epidemics until the most recent 1997/1998 El Nino event. The goal of this study is to clarify the relative importance of climatic risk factors for each area that could be predicted in advance, thus allowing implementation of cost-effective control measures, which would reduce disease morbidity and mortality.

  20. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  1. Investigation of the climatic and environmental context of Hendra virus spillover events 1994-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, Rosemary; Becker, Niels; Field, Hume

    2011-01-01

    Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994-2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p =  0.013, 95% CI (0.57-0.98)) suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox) roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52)) to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape.

  2. Investigation of the climatic and environmental context of Hendra virus spillover events 1994-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary McFarlane

    Full Text Available Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994-2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p =  0.013, 95% CI (0.57-0.98 suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52 to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape.

  3. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    characterized in each region by high/low quality wines. Finally, we also investigated how climate variability is related to DOC wine quality for different regions using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Results reveal a strong dependence of wine quality for all regions on maximum temperature and precipitation during spring and summer (the growing season) as expected. However the role of temperature on wine quality seems to be distinct among the diverse regions probably due to their different climate zoning. Moreover, it is shown that the differences associated with high/low quality wine are in agreement with different synoptic fields patterns. Our results suggest that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage/high quality year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941, International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814-1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803 (2014) de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M., Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6 (2014) Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

  4. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  5. Using an improved understanding of current climate variability to develop increased drought resilience in UK irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I.; Rey Vicario, D.

    2016-12-01

    Improving community preparedness for climate change can be supported by developing resilience to past events, focused on those changes of particular relevance (such as floods and droughts). However, communities' perceptions of impacts and risk can be influenced by an incomplete appreciation of historical baseline climate variability. This can arise from a number of factors including individual's age, access to long term data records and availability of local knowledge. For example, the most significant recent drought in the UK occurred in 1976/77 but does it represent the worst drought that did occur (or could have occurred) without climate change? We focus on the east of England where most irrigated agriculture is located and where many local farmers interviewed were either not in business then or have an incomplete memory of the impacts of the drought. This paper describes a comparison of an annual agroclimatic indicator closely linked to irrigation demand (maximum Potential Soil Moisture Deficit) calculated from three sources of long term observational and simulated historical weather data with recent data. These long term datasets include gridded measured / calculated datasets of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration; a dynamically downscaled 20th Century Re-analysis dataset, and two Regional Climate Model ensemble datasets (FutureFlows and the MaRIUS event set) which each provide between 110 and 3000 years of baseline weather. The comparison shows that the long term datasets provide a wider characterisation of current climate variability and affect the perception of current drought frequency and severity. The paper will show that using a more comprehensive understanding of current climate variability and drought risk as a basis for adapting irrigated systems to droughts can provide substantial increased resilience to (uncertain) climate change.

  6. Resilience to the Health Risks of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristie L. Ebi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; and recover faster, with increased capacity to prepare for and respond to the next threat. Increasing resilience includes top-down (e.g., strengthening and maintaining disaster risk management programs and bottom-up (e.g., increasing social capital measures, and focuses not only on the risks presented by climate change but also on the underlying socioeconomic, geographic, and other vulnerabilities that affect the extent and magnitude of impacts. Three examples are discussed of public health programs designed for other purposes that provide opportunities for increasing the capacity of communities to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of extreme weather and climate events. Incorporating elements of adaptive management into public health practice, including a strong and explicit focus on iteratively managing risks, will increase effective management of climate change risks.

  7. Resilience to the Health Risks of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2011-01-01

    Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different) weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; and recover faster, with increased capacity to prepare for and respond to the next threat. Increasing resilience includes top-down (e.g., strengthening and maintaining disaster risk management programs) and bottom-up (e.g., increasing social capital) measures, and focuses not only on the risks presented by climate change but also on the underlying socioeconomic, geographic, and other vulnerabilities that affect the extent and magnitude of impacts. Three examples are discussed of public health programs designed for other purposes that provide opportunities for increasing the capacity of communities to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of extreme weather and climate events. Incorporating elements of adaptive management into public health practice, including a strong and explicit focus on iteratively managing risks, will increase effective management of climate change risks. PMID:22408590

  8. Resilience to the health risks of extreme weather events in a changing climate in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L

    2011-12-01

    Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different) weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; and recover faster, with increased capacity to prepare for and respond to the next threat. Increasing resilience includes top-down (e.g., strengthening and maintaining disaster risk management programs) and bottom-up (e.g., increasing social capital) measures, and focuses not only on the risks presented by climate change but also on the underlying socioeconomic, geographic, and other vulnerabilities that affect the extent and magnitude of impacts. Three examples are discussed of public health programs designed for other purposes that provide opportunities for increasing the capacity of communities to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of extreme weather and climate events. Incorporating elements of adaptive management into public health practice, including a strong and explicit focus on iteratively managing risks, will increase effective management of climate change risks.

  9. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Leal Filho

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos, to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  10. Present and Historical Climate Variability and its Ecological Impact on Vegetation in South West England

    Science.gov (United States)

    (Sasha) Kosanic, Aleksandra; Harrison, Stephan; Anderson, Karen; Turkington, Thea

    2014-05-01

    West Cornwall is the most south westerly part of the United Kingdom with a strong maritime climate. This study analyses the earliest archived instrumental meteorological records collected in West Cornwall (SW England). Records were obtained from the Met Office archive (Camborne 1957-2010; Culdrose 1985-2011), Trengwainton Garden (1940-2010), and from the Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society, data for Falmouth (1880-1952) and Helston (1843-1888). Homogeneity tests were used (Levene and Brown-Forsythe tests) to exclude any trends not related to climate variability. The data exhibit trends in annual mean and maximum temperatures over the timescales analysed, and show a general temperature increase in the 20th and 21st century. Annual and seasonal temperature changes are found to vary locally with strongly positive trends in autumn, spring and summer seasons. Trends in precipitation are positive only for the 19th century and only for one station. Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index shows negative results for precipitation data. However correlation with the NAO index is positive with temperature, especially in the winter season. Return period analysis showed a decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the post-1975 period (Camborne and Trengwainton Garden stations). Climate change in the 20th century, and future continued warming is likely to have major implications on biodiversity in this region. The second part of this research analyses changes in the geographical distribution of plant species over West Cornwall using herbarium and current vegetation records. Also we examine whether Ellenberg values could be used as an environmental change indicator. This research will clearly contribute to a better identification of the climate change impact in West Cornwall, but will also benefit policy developing strategies to identify areas at risk of climate impacts at the regional and local scale.

  11. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  12. Analysis of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Model Simulations for the Pacific Northwest using weatherathome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, R. J.; Mote, P.; Weber, J.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most prominent impacts of climate change over the Pacific Northwest is the potential for an elevated number of extreme precipitation events over the region. Planning for natural hazards such as increasing number of floods related to high-precipitation events have, in general, focused on avoiding development in floodplains and conditioning development to withstand inundation with a minimum of losses. Nationwide, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates that about one quarter of its payments cover damage that has occurred outside mapped floodplains. It is clear that traditional flood-based planning will not be sufficient to predict and avoid future losses resulting from climate-related hazards such as high-precipitation events. In order to address this problem, the present study employs regional climate model output for future climate change scenarios to aid with the development of a map-based inventory of future hazard risks that can contribute to the development of a "planning-scale" decision support system for the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). Climate model output is derived from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) weatherathome project, an innovative climate science experiment that utilizes volunteer computers from users worldwide to produce hundreds of thousands superensembles of regional climate simulations of the Western United States climate from 1950 to 2050. The spatial and temporal distribution of extreme weather events are analyzed for the Pacific Northwest to diagnose the model's capabilities as an input for map products such as impacts on hydrology. Special attention is given to intensity and frequency of Atmospheric River events in historical and future climate contexts.

  13. Variable Depth Bragg Peak Method for Single Event Effects Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, S.; Kanyogoro, N.; Foster, C.; O'Neill, P.

    2011-01-01

    Traditionally, accelerator SEE testing is accomplished by removing the tops of packages so that the IC chips are accessible to heavy ions. However, ICs in some advanced packages cannot be de-lidded so a different approach is used that involves grinding and/or chemically etching away part of the package and the chip from the back side. The parts are then tested from the back side with ions having sufficient range to reach the sensitive volume. More recently, the entire silicon substrate in an SOI/SRAM was removed, making it possible to use low-energy ions with shorter ranges. Where removal of part of the package is not possible, facilities at Michigan State, NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, GANIL (France) and GSI (Germany) offer high-energy heavy ions with long ranges so that the ions can reach the devices' sensitive volumes without much change in the LET. Unfortunately, a run will typically involve only one ion species having a single energy and LET due to the long time it takes to tune a new energy. The Variable Depth Bragg Peak (VDBP) method is similar to the above method in that it involves the use of high-energy heavy ions that are able to pass through the packaging material and reach the device, obviating the need to remove the package. However, the method provides a broad range of LETs from a single ion by inserting degraders in the beam that modify the ion energy and, therefore, the LET. The crux of the method involves establishing a fiduciary point for degrader thickness, i.e., where the Bragg peak is located precisely at the sensitive volume in the device, for which the measured SEU cross-section and the ion LET are both also maxima and can be calculated using a Monte-Carlo program, TRIM. Once the fiduciary point has been established, calibrated high density polyethylene (HDPE) degraders are inserted into or removed from the beam to vary the ion LET at the device in a known manner. After each change of degrader thickness, the SEU cross-section is measured

  14. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  15. Remote sensing of climate changes effects on urban green biophysical variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2016-10-01

    Urban vegetation land cover change is a direct measure of quantitative increase or decrease in sources of urban pollution and the dimension of extreme climate events and changes that determine environment quality. This study addresses climate changes effects and anthropogenic impacts on urban green biophysical variables based on time series satellite data in synergy with in-situ data and new analytical methods. This paper explored the use of time-series MODIS Terra/Aqua Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI/EVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Leaf Area Index (LAI), land surface albedo data to provide vegetation change detection information for Bucharest test area during 2000- 2015 period. Training and validation are based on a reference dataset collected from Landsat ETM remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for investigated period was 89%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.74%), change omission errors (24.72%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.74. Annual change detection rates across the urban/peri-urban green areas over the study period were estimated at 0.77% per annum in the range of 0.45% (2000) to 0.78% (2015).Vegetation dynamics in urban areas at seasonal and longer timescales reflect large-scale interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system.

  16. Links between fire activity and climate variability in NW Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasilla, Domingo; García Codrón, Juan Carlos; Carracedo, Virginia

    2010-05-01

    Northwestern Spain (Galicia and the provinces of León and Zamora) accounts for more than 50 % of the total forest fires and around 40% of the burned surface occurred in Spain since 1968. Socioeconomic (fire considered a cultural tool, abandonment of traditional management) and demographic factors (rural depopulation) explain such fire activity, which shows two seasonal peaks, in coincidence with atmospheric conditions favourable for burning: a principal one, during the summer and beginning of the autumn, and a secondary one at the end of winter and early spring. In the present paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the summer forest fires in that region and we link them to the occurrence of some atmospheric conditions favourable to their onset and spreading. Short term anomalous weather conditions were analyzed through the calculation of daily values of the FFWI index, and related to the atmospheric circulation through a synoptic pattern catalogue; besides, the prevalence of long term climate anomalies (drought) linked to regional and hemispheric patterns of circulation variability was highlighted through the calculation of indices. A principal component analysis of the seasonal (summer) burned surface identified three different areas of coherent behaviour, the coastal Galicia, the northern Meseta and an intermediate. Due to the different climate conditions and limiting ecological factors, the atmospheric processes linked to extraordinary periods of burning vary on each region. In coastal Galicia, extreme fire seasons occur when conditions are much drier than normal, capable to enhance the fuel flammability of a usually humid environment; besides, the number of forest fires and their magnitude is usually linked also to atmospheric circulation patterns which trigger high-risk weather conditions (easterly flows promoting a severe warming and drying). Conversely, in the northern Meseta, usually drier, most of the forest fires, here affecting shrub vegetation

  17. Climatic extreme events combine with impacts of gradual climate change: recent evidence from the Andes and the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Giráldez, Claudia; Haeberli, Wilfried; Schneider, Demian; Frey, Holger; Schaub, Yvonne; Cochachin, Alejo; Portocarrero, Cesar; García, Javier; Guillén Ludeña, Sebastián; Rohrer, Mario; McArdell, Brian

    2013-04-01

    In high-mountain areas climatic extreme events can combine with effects of gradual climate change to form cascading processes, occasionally resulting in major disasters. Heavy precipitation events thereby evolve into mass movement processes such as landslides, avalanches and debris flows that can devastate urban areas at the foot of mountains. The transformation and interaction of processes are complex and often not sufficiently understood or difficult to predict, and thus more research is needed. Of particular concern are landslide impacts into existing or new glacier lakes from destabilized mountain flanks in relation with glacier retreat and permafrost degradation. Here we analyze a number of recent events in the Andes of Peru and compare them with observations in the Alps in Europe. In southern Peru debris flow events that were among the largest recent ones worldwide remained largely unstudied although they destroyed entire towns and important traffic and energy infrastructure. We used a combination of field work, satellite images, satellite rainfall data and available meteorological stations as well as numerical modeling to reconstruct origin, type and effect of these events. Large sediment deposits resulting from deglaciation processes represent a key factor, and were mobilized by heavy rainfall events. Tens of millions of m3 sediment were transported downstream in single events, with compound effects on downstream river systems causing destruction and inundation. Other recent events in Peru underline the importance of a cascade of process interaction, with ice avalanches impacting glacier lakes, triggering flood waves and debris flows that travel downstream and eventually impact urban areas. In the Alps recent observations indicate an increase of occurrence of complex compound processes with short-term climatic events overprinting on longer-term effects of gradual climate change (e.g. from glacier retreat and permafrost degradation). Especially important are

  18. Sustainability of Smart Cities under Climate Variability and Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    India has experienced a rapid urbanization during the past few decades. On the other hand, many parts of the country witnessed significant changes in mean and extreme climate related to precipitation and temperature. Here we analysed urban residence using the remotely sensed data considering the susceptibility of Indian cities to droughts and heat waves. We selected recently announced 100 urban areas that are planned to be developed as smart cities in future. Gridded precipitation data were used to compute SPEI values for frequency and ascertain the extent of droughts in the cities. The heat wave analysis was done in two phases. First phase included analysis using Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to determine the intensity of such extreme events. In the second phase, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across different ecological configuration was studied for the cities. Land Surface Temperature (LST), urban extent map from MODIS and land-cover maps were used to study the UHI effect. For this, the urban extents were divided into urban core and sub-urban zones based on built up regions in the cities. The urban to rural temperature difference is analysed considering the ecological configuration in the region. The selected cities were categorised based on the biome features surrounding them. The results suggest aggravated condition in the urban space in India with reference to extreme events. For instance, extreme heat waves have substantially increased in India during the last few decades. In many urban areas, the UHI effect contributed a significant warming due to increased urbanization. We estimated projected changes in droughts and heat waves in the selected urban areas using the dynamically downscaled data from the region climate models. Our results suggest that a majority of urban areas are projected to face an elevated risk of temperature related extremes and issues of water sustainability in the coming decades.

  19. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the

  20. Climatization: A critical perspective of framing disasters as climate change events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Grant

    2015-01-01

    The study found recent examples of climatization related to Cyclone Aila (2009 and salt water intrusion in Bangladesh. In most cases these disasters were climatized in order to create a sense of urgency in order to push for an increase in financial aid to Bangladesh and to deflect responsibility for inaction that led up to the disaster. This study urges caution as there is a potential for climatization to be used as a means to cover up negligence or bad management and there is a risk that by climatizing a disaster key vulnerabilities may be overlooked.

  1. High-Resolution Pollen Record of Deglacial Climate Variability in Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D. A.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Edgar, T.

    2004-12-01

    Pollen evidence from lacustrine sediments in Tampa Bay, Florida document considerable climatic variability superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Nine radiocarbon dates on well-preserved mollusk shells provide a reliable chronology of continuous sedimentation from 20 ka to 11.5 ka; examination of pollen assemblages from 2 cm increments within the lacustrine unit provide temporal resolution averaging one sample every 45 years. During the glacial maximum, much drier and cooler than modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae, Carya, Poaceae and Ambrosia. Increased abundance of Pinus pollen between 17.4 ka and 15 ka indicates the existence of warmer, wetter conditions in the interval including Heinrich Event 1. After a reversion to drier, cooler conditions at about 15 ka, Pinus pollen abundance increased again at 14 ka. Combined with the near loss of Carya pollen, these data suggest attainment of nearly modern climatic conditions during the Bolling-Allerod (14-13 ka). However, variability within the Bolling-Allerod is documented by shifts to deglacial-equivalent vegetation during the Older Dryas (13.4-13.6 ka). The Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka) is characterized by two distinct phases: from 12.9-11.9 ka, the increased abundance of Chenopodiaceae and Quercus mark drier, possibly cooler conditions comparable to those of the deglacial (17.4 - 14 ka). From 11.9-11.5 ka, strong dominance of herbaceous Chenopodiaceae is similar to full-glacial conditions, indicating much drier, possibly cooler conditions. Comparison of these paleoclimatic patterns with marine records from Orca Basin in the Gulf of Mexico indicate close temporal correspondence in warming of atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures. Pollen evidence also suggests that significant warming began around 17.4 ka, before the onset of Heinrich Event 1, as has been documented at other sites in the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe. This record of deglacial atmospheric

  2. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

  3. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  4. Using a Family Science Day Event to Engage Youth in Climate Change Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, C.; Brevik, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    Each fall, Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events for elementary-aged children to increase their engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. This year, the November event focused on climate change and the roles soil plays in the climate system. The timing of this topic was carefully chosen. 2015 has been declared the International Year of Soil by the United Nations, and the Soil Science Society of America theme for the month of November was Soils and Climate. This public outreach event was an amazing opportunity to help the youth in our community learn about climate change and soil in a fun, interactive environment. The activities also helped the children learn how science is a process of discovery that allows them to better understand the world they live in. In addition to the hands-on activities, a planetarium show focusing on climate change was also offered during the event. The fully immersive, 360-degree show allowed the kids and their parents to personally observe phenomena that are otherwise difficult to visualize. All of the activities at the Family Science Day event were staffed by university students, and this proved to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who helped are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience taught public communication. They learned to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Education majors who participated practiced communicating science concepts to children, and students in other majors who helped with this event gained experiences that reinforced various concepts they had learned in their general education science courses.

  5. Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, J. C.; Schulte, L.; Badoux, A.; Barriendos, M.; Barrera-Escoda, A.

    2015-09-01

    The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817-1851, 1881-1927, 1977-1990 and 2005-present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the pattern, while those basins located in the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency atmospheric variability pattern related to the major floods occurred over the period from 1800 to 2009; the summer principal mode persists in the negative phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817-1851 and 1881-1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of the mode prevail during the warmer climate of the last 4 decades (flood clusters from 1977 to present).

  6. Multi-variable bias correction of RCMs for Climate Change Impact Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Olsson, Jonas; Bosshard, Thomas; Berg, Peter; Arheimer, Berit

    2014-05-01

    Climate change (CC) may have considerable influence on hydrology, forestry and other environmental management. Therefore, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for impact assessment conducted at regional and local scale. A main source for climate projections at high spatial resolutions is made available through Regional Climate Models (RCMs). However, although RCMs have improved over past years, their remaining systematic biases often constrain their direct use for impact studies. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach has been developed as a post-processing tool to adjust systematic biases in multiple variables in climate modelling outputs. The variables to be adjusted include primary hydrological inputs, precipitation and temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, short-wave solar radiation and long-wave solar radiation. The variables statistical properties (i.e. mean and standard deviation) and their distribution (i.e. PDF) are proved to be considerably improved after bias correction. Also, the DBS is found to better preserve the variability of the future climate produced by the RCM. The bias-adjusted variables are subsequently used as inputs to the Forest Weather Index (FWI) system at a number of locations in Sweden. The resulting FWIs show clear outperformance when compared to those calculated using raw climate model outputs in past and present climate, in particular, under extreme climate. The DBS is therefore thought to be helpful to provide realistic climate change inputs to impact modelling in CC impact studies.

  7. Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

    2011-10-01

    Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to the earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.

  8. Climatic variability of the column ozone over the Iranian plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, Seyyed Shafi; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Rahimi, Yousef Ghavidel; Bidokhti, Abbasali Aliakbari

    2017-06-01

    This study analyzes the total ozone column (TOC) variability over the Iranian plateau (Esfahan) from 1978 to 2011. Results show that the annual average of TOC in Esfahan tends to decrease with time, which is strongly dependent on the season, with maximum values during the winter-spring months (more than 2.2 %/decade). By applying a defined threshold that includes the TOC monthly -2 σ, it is found that the maximum occurrence of low ozone events (LOEs) tends to be more frequent in the second half of year with about four-fifth of the observed LOEs (last summer, autumn, and early winter). During two cases of LOE, the tropopause height (TH) was uplifted 2-4 km with temperature of 10 °C colder than the long-term mean, and the synoptic pattern was characterized by high-pressure systems in UTLS region. The extreme LOEs were consistent with the horizontal transport of ozone-poor air toward the Iranian plateau and vertical advection in UTLS region. The former mechanism plays a primary role in formation of extreme LOEs based on the observed TOC reductions during previous days over the source regions (Sahara desert and Himalaya region). Day-to-day variations of maximum UV index during LOEs show that by a decrease in TOC 14 %, while the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the cloudless condition reach their lowest rates (lower than 0.3), UV radiation exceeds very high and extreme levels in late winter and mid-spring, respectively.

  9. Constructing regional climate networks in the Amazonia during recent drought events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Heng; Ramos, Antônio M T; Macau, Elbert E N; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang

    2017-01-01

    Climate networks are powerful approaches to disclose tele-connections in climate systems and to predict severe climate events. Here we construct regional climate networks from precipitation data in the Amazonian region and focus on network properties under the recent drought events in 2005 and 2010. Both the networks of the entire Amazon region and the extreme networks resulted from locations severely affected by drought events suggest that network characteristics show slight difference between the two drought events. Based on network degrees of extreme drought events and that without drought conditions, we identify regions of interest that are correlated to longer expected drought period length. Moreover, we show that the spatial correlation length to the regions of interest decayed much faster in 2010 than in 2005, which is because of the dual roles played by both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The results suggest that hub nodes in the regional climate network of Amazonia have fewer long-range connections when more severe drought conditions appeared in 2010 than that in 2005.

  10. Natural climate variability as indicated by glaciers and implications for climate change: a modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichert, B.K. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Oerlemans, J. [Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht (Netherlands). Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Research

    2001-08-01

    Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow model considering simple shearing flow and sliding are applied. Multi-millennia records of glacier length fluctuations for Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland) are simulated using auto-regressive processes determined by statistically downscaled GCM experiments. Return periods and probabilities of specific glacier length changes using GCM integrations excluding external forcings such as solar irradiation changes, volcanic or anthropogenic effects are analyzed and compared to historical glacier length records. Preindustrial fluctuations of the glaciers as far as observed or reconstructed, including their advance during the ''Little Ice Age'', can be explained by internal variability in the climate system as represented by a GCM. However, fluctuations comparable to the present-day glacier retreat do not occur in the GCM control experiments and must be caused by external forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being a likely candidate. (orig.)

  11. Association of genetic and phenotypic variability with geography and climate in three southern California oaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riordan, Erin C; Gugger, Paul F; Ortego, Joaquín; Smith, Carrie; Gaddis, Keith; Thompson, Pam; Sork, Victoria L

    2016-01-01

    Geography and climate shape the distribution of organisms, their genotypes, and their phenotypes. To understand historical and future evolutionary and ecological responses to climate, we compared the association of geography and climate of three oak species (Quercus engelmannii, Quercus berberidifolia, and Quercus cornelius-mulleri) in an environmentally heterogeneous region of southern California at three organizational levels: regional species distributions, genetic variation, and phenotypic variation. We identified climatic variables influencing regional distribution patterns using species distribution models (SDMs), and then tested whether those individual variables are important in shaping genetic (microsatellite) and phenotypic (leaf morphology) variation. We estimated the relative contributions of geography and climate using multivariate redundancy analyses (RDA) with variance partitioning. The modeled distribution of each species was influenced by climate differently. Our analysis of genetic variation using RDA identified small but significant associations between genetic variation with climate and geography in Q. engelmannii and Q. cornelius-mulleri, but not in Q. berberidifolia, and climate explained more of the variation. Our analysis of phenotypic variation in Q. engelmannii indicated that climate had more impact than geography, but not in Q. berberidifolia. Throughout our analyses, we did not find a consistent pattern in effects of individual climatic variables. Our comparative analysis illustrates that climate influences tree response at all organizational levels, but the important climate factors vary depending on the level and on the species. Because of these species-specific and level-specific responses, today's sympatric species are unlikely to have similar distributions in the future. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  12. Holocene record of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals tripartite climate history for Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D`Andrea, William; Bradley, Raymond; Olafsdottir, Sædis

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is responding sensitively to ongoing global climate change, warming and moistening faster than any other region on the planet. Holocene proxy paleoclimate time series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. Glaciers rapidly respond to climate shifts as demonstrated by their current demise around the world. This response has a composite climate signature, marked by shifts in hydroclimate (winter precipitation) as well as (summer) temperature. Attendant changes in glacier size are recorded by variations in glacigenic rock flour that may be deposited in downstream lakes. Here, we present a Holocene reconstruction of glacier activity, based on sediments from Hajeren, a glacier-fed lake on northwest Spitsbergen in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Owing to undisturbed sediments and robust age control, we could resolve variability on a sub-centennial scale. To ensure the accurate detection of glacier activity, we applied a toolbox of physical, magnetic and geochemical proxies in conjunction with multivariate statistics. Our findings indicate a three-stage Holocene climate history for Svalbard, driving by melt water pulses, episodic Atlantic cooling and a decline in orbitally driven summer insolation. Correspondence between inferred advances, including a Holocene glacier maximum around 9.5 ka BP, suggests forcing by the melting LIS during the Early Holocene. Following a late Holocene Thermal Maximum around 7.4 ka BP, glaciers disappeared from the catchment. Glaciers reformed around 4.2 ka BP during the regional onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. This transition did, however, not mark the onset of persistent glacier activity in the catchment, but a series of centennial-scale cycles of growth and decay, including events around 3.3 and 1.1 ka BP. As orbitally driven insolation declined towards the present, the glaciation threshold

  13. Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutrieux, Pierre; De Rydt, Jan; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Steig, Eric J; Ding, Qinghua; Abrahamsen, E Povl; Schröder, Michael

    2014-01-10

    Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

  14. Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-10-20

    Oct 20, 2010 ... Accurate climate surfaces are vital for applications relating to groundwater recharge modelling, evapotranspiration estima- ... with distance to oceans and elevation to generate 8 sets of high-resolution (i.e. 3 arc second) climate surfaces of the Western .... ANUSPLIN, developed by the Australian National.

  15. Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Accurate climate surfaces are vital for applications relating to groundwater recharge modelling, evapotranspiration estimation, sediment yield, stream flow prediction and flood risk mapping. Interpolated climate surface accuracy is determined by the interpolation algorithm employed, the resolution of the generated surfaces, ...

  16. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state information to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  17. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state infor- mation to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  18. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There are different wealth groups namely the rich, the middle and the poor and these are differently vulnerable climate change. The study concluded that, the wealth of knowledge on coping and adaptation that farmer has should form a foundation for designing agricultural innovation systems to deal with impacts of climate ...

  19. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    A changing climate predicting hotter, dryer weather is likely to further affect urban and rural populations, including farmers and wine producers, which provide a major source of employment. A climate change adaptation strategy for the Basin is a priority for the Chilean Ministry of Environment. To support the development of ...

  20. Incorporating climate change trends to near future variability of crop yields in Iberia Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Baethgen, Walter E.; Fernandes, Kátia; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we analyze the effects of near future climate variability on cropping systems in Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this purpose, we generated climate sequences that simulate realistic variability on annual to decadal time scales. The sequences incorporate nonlinear climate change trends, using statistical methods and and an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Then, the climate sequences are temporal downscaled into daily weather data and used as inputs to crop models. As case study, we evaluate the impacts of plausible future climate scenarios on rain-fed wheat yield two agricultural locations in IP. We adapted the method by Greene et al., (2012 and 2015) for informing climate projections for the coming decades with a combination of seasonal to interannual and anthropogenically forced climate change information for accounting the Near-term Climate Change. Long-term data containing solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall are needed to apply this method. The climate variability observed was decomposed into long-range trend, decadal and interannual variability to understand the relative importance of each time scale. The interannual variability was modeled based on the observational records. The results of this study may have important implications on public and private sectors to analyze the probabilistic projections of impacts and agronomic adaptations of near future climate variability in Iberian Peninsula. This study has been funded by MACSUR project from FACCE-JPI. References Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., Gonzalez, P.L., Ines, A.V. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J., 2015.A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 203: 217-228. Greene, A.M., Hellmuth, M. and Lumsden, T., 2012. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resources

  1. Beyond a Climate-Centric View of Plant Distribution: Edaphic Variables Add Value to Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for

  2. Projection of changes in the frequency of heavy rain events over Hawaii based on leading Pacific climate modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elison Timm, O.; Diaz, H. F.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Takahashi, M.

    2011-02-01

    This study investigates the frequency of heavy rainfall events in Hawaii during the wet season (October-April) 1958-2005 and their conditional dependence on the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Heavy rain events are defined by the 95% quantile in the rainfall distribution of the wet seasons. Twelve stations with daily reports of rainfall amounts were used to count the number of heavy rain days during wet seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) indicated that the PNA index (PNAI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) can explain a significant amount of the interannual to interdecadal variability for 9 out of 12 stations. Cross validation showed that PNAI and SOI together explain about 18-44% of the variability in the number of heavy rain events. Furthermore, the MLR model reproduces the trend toward fewer heavy rain events in the years after the Pacific climate shift in the mid-1970s. The MLR model was applied to the projected PNAI and SOI indices that were obtained from six IPCC AR4 climate models. The current suite of AR4 simulations based on the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios projects small and equivocal changes in the mean state of the SOI and PNAI during the 21st century. The covariance between PNAI and SOI in these simulations appears to be stable. To the extent that variations in the frequency and magnitude of ENSO and the PNA mode are responsible for modulating extreme rainfall occurrence in Hawaii, our results indicate small changes in the projected number of heavy rainfall days with large uncertainties resulting from disparities among the climate models.

  3. Assessing the role of Climate Variability in the recent evolution of coastlines in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gianluigi; Atkinson, David; Rosskopf, Carmen M.; Walker, Ian

    2016-04-01

    During the last century, Climatic Variability (CV) and change effects have generated a discernable impact on the world's coasts, most notably through changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of storm surges, flooding, coastal erosion and sea-level rise. This study explores CV signals and coastal responses along a 36 km stretch of coast in the Molise region of southern Italy on the Central Adriatic Sea. Two dominant signals of CV in the Mediterranean region of Europe are characterized by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) patterns. The NAO is the leading mode of CV in the North Atlantic region and periods with positive NAO index values are typically associated with above average wind speeds across the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic and western Europe, with anomalously northerly flows across the Mediterranean region and enhanced trade winds over the sub-tropical North Atlantic. Although NAO is one of the most prominent patterns in all seasons, its relative role in regulating the variability of the European climate during non-winter months is not as clear as for the winter season. In contrast, the EAWR exerts strong influence on precipitation in the Mediterranean region such that, during the negative phase of EAWR, wetter conditions prevail across central Europe and the Mediterranean region, with precipitation extremes often occurring during these periods. This study examines the effects of NAO and EAWR on coastline response in the Molise region, which has a microtidal regime (ordinary tidal excursions of 30-40 cm). GIS analysis of shoreline changes from historical aerial photography from 1954-2011 was performed and 20 years (1989-2008) of wave data were analysed from the nearby Ortona buoy to define trends and extreme event occurrence in the wave climate in the study area. Finally, statistical associations between NAO, EAWR, and other CV indices of possible influence (e.g. Arctic Oscillation, Scandinavia Pattern, or the East

  4. Assessment of Variable Planting Date as an Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Variability in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A.; Gunda, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of global freshwater withdrawals. Changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change as well as increasing demands for water necessitate an increased understanding of the water-­food intersection, notably at a local scale to inform farmer adaptations to improve water productivity, i.e., to get more food with less water. Local assessments of water-food security are particularly important for nations with self-sufficiency policies, which prioritize in-country production of certain resources. An ideal case study is the small island nation of Sri Lanka, which has a self-sufficiency policy for its staple food of rice. Because rice is a water-intensive crop, assessment of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) and the associated changes over time is especially important. Previous studies on IWRs of rice in Sri Lanka have failed to consider the Yala (dry) season, when water is scarcest.The goal of this study is to characterize the role that a human decision, setting the planting date, can play in buffering declines in rice yield against changes in precipitation patterns. Using four meteorological stations in the main rice-growing zones in Sri Lanka, we explore (1) general changes in IWRs over time during the Yala season and (2) the impact of the rice planting date. We use both historical data from meteorological stations as well as future projections from regional climate models. Our results indicate that gains can be achieved using a variable planting date relative to a fixed date, in accordance with a similar conclusion for the Maha (wet) season. This local scale assessment of Sri Lanka IWRs will contribute to the growing global literature on the impacts of water scarcity on agriculture and the role that one adaptation measure can play in mitigating deleterious impacts.

  5. Abrupt climate and vegetation variability of eastern Anatolia during the last glacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-11-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca / K ratio, and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~ 111.5-11.7 ka BP). The climate of the last glacial was cold and dry, indicated by low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~ 28-14.5 ka BP), which was dominated by highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi-proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflect variability in temperature and moisture availability. These rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be related to the stadial-interstadial pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced occurrence of xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, the comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which are responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by the diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, more pronounced DO interstadials (e.g., DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the strongest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, cannot be separated from other DO stadials based on the vegetation composition in eastern Anatolia. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record for the last glacial in the Near East. It documents an immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  6. Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

    2017-04-01

    An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

  7. The Influence of ENSO and Interdecadal Variability on the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, A. M.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Pscheidt, I.

    2006-12-01

    extreme events show similarity (difference) with respect to the mean anomalies during EN or LN episodes. This indicates that the frequency of extreme events increases (decreases) when the large-scale perturbations favor (hamper) the circulation anomalies associated with them in those regions. The EOF analysis of the monthly totals of extreme events in southern Brazil, filtered to retain only decadal / interdecadal variability, discloses long term variations in the frequency of extreme events. The first PC shows a remarkable oscillation with phase transition in the 1970s. Periods of opposite phases of this oscillation are analyzed with respect to mean atmospheric circulation, mean frequency of extreme precipitation events, and characteristics of the extreme events. The correlation of the first PC with sea surface temperature and indices of known modes of interdecadal variability indicates strong connections with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation. The present analysis discloses significant influence of ENSO episodes on the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events is several regions of South America. These events are also strongly modulated by interdecadal modes of climate variability. Acknowledgments. This work was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq, Brazil) and the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES).

  8. Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, Aparna; Ikeda, Takayoshi; French, Nigel; Baker, Michael G; Hales, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

  9. Influence of climate on emergency department visits for syncope: role of air temperature variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Galli

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Syncope is a clinical event characterized by a transient loss of consciousness, estimated to affect 6.2/1000 person-years, resulting in remarkable health care and social costs. Human pathophysiology suggests that heat may promote syncope during standing. We tested the hypothesis that the increase of air temperatures from January to July would be accompanied by an increased rate of syncope resulting in a higher frequency of Emergency Department (ED visits. We also evaluated the role of maximal temperature variability in affecting ED visits for syncope. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included 770 of 2775 consecutive subjects who were seen for syncope at four EDs between January and July 2004. This period was subdivided into three epochs of similar length: 23 January-31 March, 1 April-31 May and 1 June-31 July. Spectral techniques were used to analyze oscillatory components of day by day maximal temperature and syncope variability and assess their linear relationship. There was no correlation between daily maximum temperatures and number of syncope. ED visits for syncope were lower in June and July when maximal temperature variability declined although the maximal temperatures themselves were higher. Frequency analysis of day by day maximal temperature variability showed a major non-random fluctuation characterized by a ∼23-day period and two minor oscillations with ∼3- and ∼7-day periods. This latter oscillation was correlated with a similar ∼7-day fluctuation in ED visits for syncope. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that ED visits for syncope were not predicted by daily maximal temperature but were associated with increased temperature variability. A ∼7-day rhythm characterized both maximal temperatures and ED visits for syncope variability suggesting that climate changes may have a significant effect on the mode of syncope occurrence.

  10. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiersma, Ane P.; Jongma, Jochem I.

    2010-08-01

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that, on top of the freshwater effect, a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower sea-surface temperatures induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1°C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. In addition, they advocate a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse.

  11. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiersma, Ane P. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Deltares, Department of Morphology and Sedimentary Systems, Utrecht (Netherlands); Jongma, Jochem I. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2010-08-15

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that, on top of the freshwater effect, a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower sea-surface temperatures induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1 C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. In addition, they advocate a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse. (orig.)

  12. Paleohydrology reconstruction and Holocene climate variability in the South Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Siani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Holocene paleohydrology reconstruction is derived combining planktonic and benthic stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, sea surface temperatures (SSTs and oxygen isotope composition of seawater (δ18Ow from a high sedimentation core collected in the South Adriatic Sea (SAS. Core chronology is based on 10 AMS 14C measures on planktonic foraminifera and tephra layers. Results reveal two contrasted paleohydrological periods that reflect (i a marked lowering of δ18Ow/salinity during the early to mid-Holocene (11.5 ka to 6.3 ka, including the two-step sapropel S1 deposition, followed during the mid- to upper Holocene by (ii a prevailing period of increased salinity and enhanced arid conditions in the South Adriatic Basin. Superimposed on these trends, short-term centennial-scale hydrological events punctuated the Holocene period in the SAS. During the early to mid-Holocene, two main SST coolings together with prominent δ18Ow/salinity lowering delineate the sapropel S1 interruption and the post-sapropel phase between 7.3 to 6.3 ka. After 6 ka, centennial-scale δ18Ow and G. bulloides δ13C lowering, mostly centered between 3 to 0.6 ka, reflect short-term hydrological changes related to more intensive runoff of the Po and/or Apennine rivers. These short-term events, even of lesser amplitude compared to the early to mid-Holocene period, may have induced a lowering of sea surface density and consequently reduced and/or inhibited the formation of deep bottom waters in the SAS. Comparison of the emerging centennial- to millennial-scale hydrological record with previous climatic records from the central Mediterranean area and north of the Alps reveal possible synchronicities (within the radiocarbon-dating uncertainty between phases of lower salinity in the SAS and periods of wetter climatic conditions around the north-central Adriatic Sea. Finally, wavelet analyses provide new clues about the potential origin of climate variability in the SAS, confirming

  13. Bivariate EMD-Based Data Adaptive Approach to the Analysis of Climate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Khademul Islam Molla

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a data adaptive approach for the analysis of climate variability using bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD. The time series of climate factors: daily evaporation, maximum and minimum temperatures are taken into consideration in variability analysis. All climate data are collected from a specific area of Bihar in India. Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn is used here as the reference signal. The climate signal and fGn (of same length are combined to produce bivariate (complex signal which is decomposed using BEMD into a finite number of sub-band signals named intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Both of climate signal as well as fGn are decomposed together into IMFs. The instantaneous frequencies and Fourier spectrum of IMFs are observed to illustrate the property of BEMD. The lowest frequency oscillation of climate signal represents the annual cycle (AC which is an important factor in analyzing climate change and variability. The energies of the fGn's IMFs are used to define the data adaptive threshold to separate AC. The IMFs of climate signal with energy exceeding such threshold are summed up to separate the AC. The interannual distance of climate signal is also illustrated for better understanding of climate change and variability.

  14. Impact of climate variability on vegetable crops in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Adedapo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate is one of the key factors in agricultural productivity. Climate variability plays an important role in food production. Vegetable crops are sensitive to climate variability. This paper examines the impacts of climate variability on vegetable crops in Ilorin, Nigeria. Climatic data on temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and sunshine hours were collected for a period of ten years. Agricultural data on the yield of sweat potato, okra, pepper, tomato and Amaranthus were also collected for the same period. Multiple regression, trend analysis, correlation statistics and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI were employed in the data analysis. The results obtained indicate that the selected climatic elements have weak impact on the yield of okra, sweat potato, pepper, and Amaranthus. However, the selected climatic elements have strong impact on the yield of tomato. These results imply that variation in the yield of okra, sweat potato, pepper, and Amaranthus could be attributed to non- climatic factors like soil fertility and crop management practices while variation in the yield of tomato could be attributed to climatic factors. The paper thus suggests measures such as breeding new varieties of tomato that are tolerant to climatic stress or variability, application of fertilizer to improve the fertility of the soil and the use of modern agricultural techniques to improve the productivity of vegetable crops in Ilorin.

  15. Atmospheric Rivers and floods in Southern California: Climate forcing of extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendy, I. L.; Heusser, L. E.; Napier, T.; Pak, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Southern California has a Mediterranean type climate characterized by warm dry summers associated with the North Pacific High pressure system and cool, wet winters primarily associated in low pressure systems originating in the high latitude North Pacific. Extreme precipitation, however, is connected to strong zonal flow that brings warm, moist tropical across the Pacific (AKA atmospheric river). Here we present a revised record of flood events in Santa Barbara Basin that have been linked to atmospheric rivers focusing on events associated with transitions between known climate events using new radiocarbon chronology and detailed sediment composition. Flood events identified by homogenous grey layers are present throughout the Holocene with a recurrence every 110 years, but are particularly common (85 year recurrence) between 4,200 and 2,000 years BP. Interval between 6,500 and 4,500 commonly associated with dry conditions in California was associated with fewer flood events (recurrence interval increased to 176 years). Intervals of high lake levels in California associated with pluvials appear to be associated with more frequent extreme precipitation events. The longest recurrence interval (535 years) is associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The season in which the atmospheric river occurs was estimated using the relative abundance of pollen within the flood deposit. The 735 and 1270 C.E. flood events are associated with May-June flowering vegetation, while the most recent events (1861-2 and 1761 C.E.) were associated with November to March flowering vegetation. This agrees with the December-January rainfall records of the historic 1861-62. We conclude the frequency of extreme precipitation events appears to increase as climate cools (e.g. the Little Ice Age).

  16. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on (Marine) Animals: Physiological Underpinnings and Evolutionary Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, Hans O; Gutt, Julian

    2016-07-01

    Understanding thermal ranges and limits of organisms becomes important in light of climate change and observed effects on ecosystems as reported by the IPCC (2014). Evolutionary adaptation to temperature is presently unable to keep animals and other organisms in place; if they can these rather follow the moving isotherms. These effects of climate change on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have brought into focus the mechanisms by which temperature and its oscillations shape the biogeography and survival of species. For animals, the integrative concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterized the sublethal limits to performance and the consequences of such limits for ecosystems. Recent models illustrate how routine energy demand defines the realized niche. Steady state temperature-dependent performance profiles thus trace the thermal window and indicate a key role for aerobic metabolism, and the resulting budget of available energy (power), in defining performance under routine conditions, from growth to exercise and reproduction. Differences in the performance and productivity of marine species across latitudes relate to changes in mitochondrial density, capacity, and other features of cellular design. Comparative studies indicate how and why such mechanisms underpinning OCLTT may have developed on evolutionary timescales in different climatic zones and contributed to shaping the functional characteristics and species richness of the respective fauna. A cause-and-effect understanding emerges from considering the relationships between fluctuations in body temperature, cellular design, and performance. Such principles may also have been involved in shaping the functional characteristics of survivors in mass extinction events during earth's history; furthermore, they may provide access to understanding the evolution of endothermy in mammals and birds. Accordingly, an understanding is emerging how climate changes and

  17. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

    2005-01-01

    rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however......Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...

  18. [The impacts of extreme events of weather and climate on infectious disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Juan; Zhang, Jinliang

    2009-11-01

    In this paper the articles on the impacts of extreme events of weather and climate on infectious disease were summarized, in which were published in China from 1995 to 2008. Among all kinds of extreme events of weather and climate, flood, warm winter, high temperature and drought had the most obvious effect on infectious disease. In this paper, the impact on epidemic and activities of vectors and infectious parasites, as well as the change of incidence and epidemic scale of related infectious disease were respectively reviewed.

  19. Investigating Gulf of Alaska climate and ecosystem variability at annual to centennial resolution over the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, J. A.; Finney, B. P.; Anderson, L.

    2010-12-01

    The Gulf of Alaska in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean is a unique region where atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions are linked directly with marine ecosystem variability. Observations of modern climate in the Gulf of Alaska indicate strong teleconnections across the Northern Hemisphere, while outputs from coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs suggest that environmental changes occurring here can force downstream climate variability, particularly during periods of abrupt climate change. The importance of this region is diminished however by the relatively short period of historical observations that range only to the previous century. Recent work on tree-ring and marine invertebrate archives have extended the paleoclimatology of the Gulf of Alaska in annual resolution over the last millennia, yet such detail for periods prior to AD 1000 require new sources of information. We present initial results from the DIVE [Deep Inlet Varve Experiment] project, an effort to resolve environmental and ecosystem parameters at sub-decadal temporal resolutions using marine sediment core EW0408-44JC, recovered from a temperate ice-free fjord in Southeast Alaska. This core is a potentially important high-resolution archive of paleoclimatological data because it is predominantly composed of a diatom-ooze laminated at sub-mm scales. The fjord setting provides information on both marine processes in the high-latitude North Pacific Ocean such as circulation and productivity, and adjacent landscape change. A calibrated age-depth model consisting of nine terrestrial macrofossils, with a mean time difference between AMS samples of ~350 yrs/sample, indicates a relatively constant sediment accumulation of ~0.5 cm/yr (e.g. 500 cm/ka) since 3800 cal yrs BP. Low-resolution sampling of opal and TOC concentrations indicates a consistently high export productivity throughout this time interval, with decadal variability superimposed over longer centennial oscillations, suggestive of ecosystem

  20. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Wassie Berhanu; Fekadu Beyene

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term decl...

  1. Temporal variability in taxonomic and trait compositions of invertebrate assemblages in two climatic regions with contrasting flow regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolédec, Sylvain; Tilbian, Jessica; Bonada, Núria

    2017-12-01

    Understanding natural temporal changes in Mediterranean rivers with contrasting flow regimes in relation to those of temperate rivers may prove helpful in predicting effects of climate change on aquatic biodiversity. We aimed to compare temporal variability in taxonomic and trait compositions of nearly natural rivers in two climatic regions with varying flow regimes to address the effects of future climate changes on aquatic biodiversity in reference conditions. We analysed taxonomic and biological trait compositions using the Foucard multivariate method to compare within-site temporal variability levels and the evolution of within-date spatial variability patterns. In addition, we assessed the effects of temporal variability levels on taxonomic and functional diversity and on community specialization. Our results reveal (i) highly fluctuating environments of the Mediterranean region, particularly in intermittent rivers, which lead to higher levels of temporal variability in both taxonomic and trait compositions of benthic invertebrate assemblages, with marked synchrony in Mediterranean streams linked to contrasting flow characteristics; (ii) higher degrees of taxonomic richness associated with higher levels of functional diversity in Mediterranean rivers relative to temperate rivers, (iii) higher temporal stability for functional diversity and trait compositions of benthic invertebrate assemblages than for taxonomic richness and compositions; and (iv) a recovery of all diversity metrics following drying events in intermittent sites. This study offers insight into a rarely addressed question concerning the temporal variability of trait compositions in benthic invertebrate assemblages among rivers differing in terms of flow regimes. It suggests that temperate rivers will experience higher levels of temporal variability in terms of taxonomic and trait compositions under future climatic change scenarios, even in sites that will remain perennial, resulting in higher

  2. ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

    2017-04-01

    The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts

  3. Automatic prediction of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events using heart rate variability analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Melillo

    Full Text Available There is consensus that Heart Rate Variability is associated with the risk of vascular events. However, Heart Rate Variability predictive value for vascular events is not completely clear. The aim of this study is to develop novel predictive models based on data-mining algorithms to provide an automatic risk stratification tool for hypertensive patients.A database of 139 Holter recordings with clinical data of hypertensive patients followed up for at least 12 months were collected ad hoc. Subjects who experienced a vascular event (i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, syncopal event were considered as high-risk subjects. Several data-mining algorithms (such as support vector machine, tree-based classifier, artificial neural network were used to develop automatic classifiers and their accuracy was tested by assessing the receiver-operator characteristics curve. Moreover, we tested the echographic parameters, which have been showed as powerful predictors of future vascular events.The best predictive model was based on random forest and enabled to identify high-risk hypertensive patients with sensitivity and specificity rates of 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively. The Heart Rate Variability based classifier showed higher predictive values than the conventional echographic parameters, which are considered as significant cardiovascular risk factors.Combination of Heart Rate Variability measures, analyzed with data-mining algorithm, could be a reliable tool for identifying hypertensive patients at high risk to develop future vascular events.

  4. Ion Anisotropy and High-Energy Variability of Large Solar Particle Events: A Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lun C.; Reames, Donald V.; Ng, Chee K.

    2008-01-01

    We have made comparative studies of ion anisotropy and high-energy variability of solar energetic particle (SEP) events previously examined by the Solar, Heliospheric, and Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) Workshop campaign. We have found distinctly different characteristics of SEPs between two large "gradual" events having very similar solar progenitors (the 2002 April 21 and August 24 events). Since the scattering centers of SEPs are approximately frozen in the solar wind, we emphasize work in the solar-wind frame where SEPs tend to be isotropized, and small anisotropies are easier to detect. While in the August event no streaming reversal occurred, in the April event the field-aligned anisotropy of all heavy ions showed sign of streaming reversal. The difference in streaming reversal was consistent with the difference in the presence of the outer reflecting boundary. In the April event the magnetic mirror, which was located behind the interplanetary shock driven by the preceding coronal mass ejection (CME), could block the stream of SEPs, while in the August event SEPs escaped freely because of the absence of nearby boundary. The magnetic mirror was formed at the bottleneck of magnetic field lines draped around a flank of the preceding CME. In the previous SHINE event analysis the contrasting event durations and Fe/O ratios of the both events were explained as the interplay between shock geometry and seed population. Our new findings, however, indicate that event duration and time as well as spectral variation are also affected by the presence of a nearby reflecting boundary.

  5. Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

    2017-12-01

    The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

  6. Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessment and Extreme Event Forecasting in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB)

    OpenAIRE

    Mutua, Felix Nzive

    2013-01-01

    Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world. Recent events have led to mass displacement, loss of income, and hampered access to clean water and health to many. The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models using global fo...

  7. Reply to Comment on ``Abandoned Mines, Mountain Sports, and Climate Variability: Implications for the Colorado Tourism Economy''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Andrew; McKnight, Diane; Wyatt, Lane

    2004-02-01

    Our article focused on the complex interactions among climate variability, hydrology, chemical weathering reactions, and stream ecology that influence water resource availability for recreation in watersheds of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. In responding to our article, our colleagues at Hydrosphere Resource Consultants provide additional detailed information about snow-making approaches at ski resorts. However, they make other assertions that warrant comment and clarification. We disagree with the statement that the ski industry may not be the appropriate tourism sector for illustrating the impacts of climate variations. The success of the ski industry hinges on a variety of climate-related variables (for example, temperature, precipitation quantity, precipitation as snow versus rain) that are expected to change in an uncertain climatic future. A new study launched by the United Nations Environment Programme provides a wide-ranging, international evaluation of the climate change and vulnerability of winter sports issue. Contrary to Hydrosphere Resource Consultants' assertion, we did not suggest that the droughts of 1977 and 2002 were similar or that they have had similar impacts on the Colorado ski industry. As they noted, the timing of the 2002 drought resulted in significant impacts to summer tourist activities, through decreased stream flows and increased fire danger. Rather, we utilized the 1977 event to illustrate that drought occurs frequently in Colorado and has affected the ski industry in the past.

  8. Extremeness of meteorological variables as an indicator of extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Řezáčová, Daniela; Sokol, Zbyněk

    2009-05-01

    Extreme large-scale precipitation events in central Europe are determined by the synoptic pattern, which is typically characterized by cyclones moving from the south into this region. Herein, we demonstrate that this synoptic pattern is accompanied by large-scale anomalies of dynamic and thermodynamic variables that occur in specific regions before or during the precipitation event. The extremeness of individual variables was evaluated by ERA-40 data relative to the corresponding climatology by the obtained distribution function values. Precipitation events leading to 14 significant summer floods in the period between 1958 and 2002 were used as reference events. The temporal correspondence of the anomalies among reference events was employed by selecting 26 synoptic predictors of extreme precipitation in the Czech Republic. A predictor evaluates the extremeness of a variable in a limited area on a specific day relatively to the start of the precipitation event (day D). While the predictors cover a five-day period from D - 2 to D + 2, most are relevant to the days with precipitation (from D to D + 2). The predictors cannot be considered individually because only opportune coincidences make the synoptic situations dangerous. In the present study, a combined EM index was used by evaluating the predictors as a whole, without considering their relationships. Days with minimum EM values correspond to significant flood events in the Czech Republic. Our results confirm that the synoptic pattern can be properly characterized by the extremeness of selected dynamic and thermodynamic variables, and that the anomalies are distinctly correlated with the extremity of large-scale precipitation and flood events in the Czech Republic. This approach is applicable to other regions where precipitation is significantly related to large-scale synoptic patterns, and could be employed also by operational detection of upcoming extreme precipitation events.

  9. Is Information Enough? User Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Sub{sub S}aharan Africa, Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto; Kingamkono, Robert; Hochobeb, Ben

    2000-05-01

    Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Nino events and their impact on climate variability. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines how farmers received and used the forecasts in the agricultural season of 1997/1998. It also summarises a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa. Comparison of case studies across south Africa revealed differences in forecast dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. However, improving these strategies and the capacity to respond to the forecasts would yield net profit to agriculture in southern Africa. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there clearly is a need for improved seasonal forecasts and improved information dissemination.

  10. Multi-scale event synchronization analysis for unravelling climate processes: a wavelet-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Ankit; Marwan, Norbert; Rathinasamy, Maheswaran; Merz, Bruno; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-10-01

    The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-)processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.

  11. Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

  12. Ichno-sedimentological record of short-term climate-controlled redox events and cycles in organic-rich strata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savrda, C.E. (Auburn Univ., AL (USA)); Bottjher, D.J. (Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles (USA)); Ozalas, K. (Auburn Univ., AL (USA))

    1990-05-01

    Reduced rates of biochemical degradation of organic matter in oxygen-depleted marine settings generally result in the accumulation of laminated strata with high hydrocarbon source potential. Periods of improved oxygenation, during which the quantity and quality of organic matter are effectively reduced, are reflected by interbedded bioturbated intervals. Such benthic redox excursions may reflect variable paleooceanographic responses to climatic events or cycles. The potential role of climate in the short-term modulation of source rock potential is exemplified by bioturbated intervals within three predominantly laminated organic-rich units. The Jurassic Posidonia Shale (Germany) contains bioturbated beds whose ichnologic characteristics reflect a spectrum from short, low-magnitude redox events to longer episodes of greater magnitude. The character and distribution of these event beds appear to be controlled by sea level mediated variations in the frequency and intensity of storm-induced basin turnover. Bioturbated beds of the Upper Cretaceous Niobrara Formation (Colorado) are characterized by four oxygen-related ichnocoenoses, the distribution of which reflects cyclic variations in redox conditions. Relationships between paleooxygenation and organic-carbon and carbonate contents, and estimated cycle periodicities, suggest that redox variations were controlled by wet-dry climatic cycles modulated by the Milankovitch cycle of axial precession. Bioturbated beds within slope and basinal facies of the Miocene Monterey Formation (California) are variable in character, reflecting differences in duration and magnitude of associated oxygenation episodes, and may be in response to short-term variations in wind-stress-induced upwelling and/or ice-volume-controlled eustatic sea level changes.

  13. South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

    2003-04-01

    Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

  14. Internal ice - Sheet variability as source for the multi-century and millennial-scale iceberg events during the Holocene? A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bügelmayer-Blaschek, Marianne; Roche, Didier M.; Renssen, Hans; Andrews, John T.

    2016-04-01

    The climate of the Holocene, the current interglacial covering the past 11,700 years, has been relatively stable compared to previous periods. Nevertheless, repeating occurrence of rapid natural climate changes that challenged human society are seen in proxy reconstructions. Ocean sediment cores for example display prominent peaks of enhanced ice rafted debris (IRD) during the Holocene with a multi-decadal to millennial scale periodicity. Different mechanisms were proposed that caused these enhanced IRD events, for example variations in the incoming total solar irradiance (TSI), volcanic eruptions and the combination of internal climate variability and external forcings. We investigate the probable mechanisms causing the occurrence of IRD-events over the past 6000 years using a fully coupled climate - ice-sheet - iceberg model (iLOVECLIM). We performed 19 experiments that differ in the applied forcings (TSI, volcanic) and the initial atmospheric conditions. To explore internal ice sheet variability one further experiment was done with fixed climate conditions. All the model runs displayed prominent peaks of enhanced iceberg melt flux (IMF), independent of the chosen experimental set-up. The spectral analysis of the experiments with the ice-sheet - climate model coupled displays significant peaks at 2000, 1000 years in all the experiments and at 500 years in most runs. The experiment with fixed climate conditions displays one significant peak of about 1500 years related to internal ice sheet variability. This frequency is modulated to 2000 and 1000 years in all the experiments with a coupled climate - ice sheet due to interactions between the climate components. We further investigate the impact of minimum TSI events on the timing and occurrence of enhanced IMF. In the experimental set-up that was forced with idealized sinusoidal TSI variations (±4 Wm-2), we find a significant occurrence of an increased iceberg melt flux about 60 years after the minimum TSI value

  15. The ESA climate change initiative: Satellite data records for essential climate variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollmann, R.; Merchant, C.J.; Saunders, R.

    2013-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) has launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) to provide satellite-based climate data records (CDRs) that meet the challenging requirements of the climate community. The aim is to realize the full potential of the long-term Earth observation (EO) archives that b...

  16. Disentangling the role of Natural Variability and Climate Change in the aggravation of Droughts in central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garreaud, R. D.; Boisier, J. P.; Rondanelli, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    Among other climate extreme events, droughts (annual rainfall deficit larger than 25%) have punctuated the hydro-climate history of central Chile (30-40°S) with profoundly negative effects on physical (e.g., water storage depletion), ecological (e.g., increase in forest fires) and human systems (e.g., major distress in rural communities). In this presentation we show that intense but short-lived (1 or 2 years long) droughts are associated with anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the subtropical south Pacific (Amudsen sea), reduced synoptic-scale variability in that area and weakening of the westerly winds impinging the west coast of South America. These large-scale anomalies often occurs in connection with the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña events). Of particular interest is an uninterrupted rainfall deficit since 2010 to date, referred to as the central Chile mega-drought (MD) in virtue of its unprecedented character in term of duration, spatial extent and coincidence with warm air temperatures. The protracted MD shares some of the climate features of the historical events but for the prevalence of near-neutral ENSO years with the exception of 2010 (La Niña) and 2015 (intense El Niño). Thus, we use a suite of fully-coupled and SST-forced climate simulations to disentangle natural and anthropogenic contributions to current mega drought as well as to shed light in the physical link between global climate change and rainfall deficit in central Chile drought. It turns out that anthropogenic climate change accounts for about a third of the drought as it forces SAM towards its positive polarity. The later enhances a dipole of geopotential height over the South Pacific that is conducive to dry conditions in central Chile.

  17. Climate variability in West Greenland during the past 1500 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    dos Santos Ribeiro, Sofia Isabel; Moros, Matthias; Ellegaard, Marianne

    2012-01-01

    . Sea ice cover and primary productivity were identified as the two main factors driving dinoflagellate cyst community changes through time. Our data provide evidence for an opposite climate trend in West Greenland relative to the NE Atlantic region from c. AD 500 to 1050. For the same period, sea...... of the Dark Ages cold period (c. AD 500 to 750) and cooler conditions with extensive sea ice inferred for the first part of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (c. AD 750 to 1050). After c. AD 1050, the marine climate in Disko Bay becomes in-phase with trends described for the NE Atlantic, reflected......-surface temperatures in Disko Bay are out-of-phase with Greenland ice-core reconstructed temperatures and marine proxy data from South and East Greenland. This is probably governed by an NAO-type pattern, which results in warmer sea-surface conditions with less extensive sea ice in the area for the later part...

  18. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2017-04-01

    In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a

  19. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  20. Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hageer, Yasmin; Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Baumgartner, John B; Beaumont, Linda J

    2017-01-01

    Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent. This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only, (2) climate and soil variables, and (3) soil variables only. The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species, but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple, plausible alternatives exist, and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants.

  1. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  2. Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    : The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high......BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European...... countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS...

  3. Can dynamically downscaled climate model outputs improve pojections of extreme precipitation events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect betwe...

  4. Records of climatic changes and volcanic events in an ice core from ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 111; Issue 1. Records of climatic changes and volcanic events in an ice core from Central Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica) during the past century. V N Nijampurkar D K Rao H B Clausen M K Kaul A Chaturvedi. Volume 111 Issue 1 March 2002 pp 39-49 ...

  5. Organizational climate and variable of interpersonal skills in construct of a transportation company.

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Rodrigo Sinnott; Faculdade Anhanguera do Rio Grande; Ramos, Liege da Silva; Faculdade Anhanguera do Rio Grande

    2015-01-01

    Studies indicate the importance of a satisfactory Organizational Climate in organizations, in favor of the company and employees. This study aimed to analyze the influence on the variable of Interpersonal Skills in building the Organizational Climate for a transport company. included a field survey which reached 77 employees of the company, these were submitted to answer two instruments with scales 1-5, Scale for Measuring Organizational Climate (ECO) and Universal Competency Report. The resu...

  6. farmer perceptions on climate change and variability in semi-arid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    techniques, to investigate farmers' perceptions of climate variability and whether these perceptions correspond with historical ..... that in a poor season, grain prices usually shot up and ... low due to too much competition as most households ...

  7. Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Janardan Mainali; John All; Pramod Kumar Jha; Dinesh Raj Bhuju

    2015-01-01

    ..., moisture, and ambient temperature. We document patterns of forest vegetative response for 5 major alpine forest communities to current climate variability in the central Himalayas of Nepal to provide a baseline for assessment...

  8. Forests and trees for social adaptation to climate variability and change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramova, E.; Locatelli, B.; Djoudi, H.; Somorin, O.A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems provide important services that can help people adapt to climate variability and change. Recognizing this role of ecosystems, several international and nongovernmental organizations have promoted an ecosystem-based approach to adaptation. We review the scientific literature related to

  9. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

    2017-07-01

    The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

  10. Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

  11. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change observed over the past decades has been consistently associated with modifications of components of the hydrological systems such as precipitation patterns, sea surface temperature, accelerated melting of glacier and ice caps, soil temperature and moisture, surface runoff and stream flow. Such changes ...

  12. Impacts of climate change and variability, and adaptation strategies ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    13 mai 2011 ... This article appeared in the August 2009 volume of the African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa research and capacity development program was launched in 2006 as a joint initiative between Canada's International Development Research ...

  13. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Such changes are known to influence subsurface hydrological systems, which could lead to changes in groundwater recharge, discharge and storage of many aquifers. Although, there are uncertainties in the characterisation of climate change induced groundwater impacts due largely to multi-scale local and regional ...

  14. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassie Berhanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability.

  15. Rainfall Variability and the Recent Climate Extremes in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recently, large and extended weather and climate extremes were recorded in different parts of the country, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Weather patterns affecting the country are driven by the northward and southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) as well as developments within the ...

  16. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  17. Climate Change and Variability: Implications for Household Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The econometric model estimation result revealed the important factors determining household food security. These are household perception of climate change, use of soil and water conservation practices, use of livestock feed management techniques, loss of livestock due to drought and/or disease, literacy level of ...

  18. Impacts of climate change and variability, and adaptation strategies ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-25

    Apr 25, 2016 ... In Tanzania, agriculture plays a critical role in providing food and income for most of its people. More than 70% of the population depends on subsistence agriculture, which is almost entirely rainfed. Given this overdependence on rainfed agriculture, farmers are highly vulnerable to climate change. In recent ...

  19. Adapting to climate variability and change in Chile's Maipo basin ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    But pressure on the Maipo basin is rising as Santiago's population and industries grow, and as the country looks to tap hydro-electrical power from the basin's tributaries upstream. Meanwhile, climate change projections show temperatures rising as rainfall declines. Given the region's role in Chile's national economy, ...

  20. Modeling Selected Climatic Variables in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The choice of the density function was based on the positive skewness of the two climate series, a sufficient condition for the selection of the burr density. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit tests and the plots of the cumulative distribution function confirmed the adequacy of the density function to model adequately the ...

  1. Influence of climate variability on acute myocardial infarction mortality in Havana, 2001-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero, Alina; Bolufé, Javier; Ortiz, Paulo L; Rodríguez, Yunisleydi; Reyes, María C

    2015-04-01

    Death from acute myocardial infarction is due to many factors; influences on risk to the individual include habits, lifestyle and behavior, as well as weather, climate and other environmental components. Changing climate patterns make it especially important to understand how climatic variability may influence acute myocardial infarction mortality. Describe the relationship between climate variability and acute myocardial infarction mortality during the period 2001-2012 in Havana. An ecological time-series study was conducted. The universe comprised 23,744 deaths from acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10: I21-I22) in Havana residents from 2001 to 2012. Climate variability and seasonal anomalies were described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index (comprising variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure), along with series analysis to determine different seasonal-to-interannual climate variation signals. The role played by climate variables in acute myocardial infarction mortality was determined using factor analysis. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used for trend analysis with a significance level of 5%. The strong association between climate variability conditions described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index and acute myocardial infarctions accounts for the marked seasonal pattern in AMI mortality. The highest mortality rate occurred during the dry season, i.e., the winter months in Cuba (November-April), with peak numbers in January, December and March. The lowest mortality coincided with the rainy season, i.e., the summer months (May-October). A downward trend in total number of deaths can be seen starting with the change point in April 2009. Climate variability is inversely associated with an increase in acute myocardial infarction mortality as is shown by the Bultó-1 index. This inverse relationship accounts for acute myocardial infarction mortality's seasonal pattern.

  2. Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

    2017-04-01

    Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

  3. What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue

    2017-10-01

    Motivated by the fact that the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation anomalies during 2015/16 winter (a year of strong El Niño) over the west coast of the US and that of the El Niño composite precipitation pattern had considerable differences, the variability in the winter precipitation during strong El Niño events is assessed. The analysis is based on a set of hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the following aspects for seasonal mean precipitation variability were examined: (1) the mean signal during strong El Niño based on the composite analysis, and further, the variability from the composite on an event-to-event basis; (2) probability of occurrence for precipitation anomalies to be opposite to the signal (inferred as the composite mean); (3) the probability to have precipitation anomaly in different categories varying from wet to dry; and (4) variations in the characteristics of precipitation from OND, NDJ, to DJF (early to late boreal winter). The results show that the model forecasted seasonal mean precipitation composite for strong El Niño was similar to the linear regression signal with the Niño 3.4 index in observations, with negative anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and positive anomalies over California. However, although in response to an El Niño event, the California precipitation PDF was shifted towards positive values relative to the climatological PDF, the overlap between climatological PDF and the PDF for El Niño events was considerable. This is because of the large variability in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation from one forecast to another, and therefore, chances to have precipitation anomalies with their sign opposite to the composite El Niño signal remain appreciable. In this paradigm, although the seasonal mean precipitation during 2015/16 winter over the west coast of the US differed from the mean signal for a strong El Niño event, the

  4. Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

    2007-01-01

    Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

  5. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  6. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  7. Long-term streamflow response to climatic variability in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Huayong Zhang; Jianlao Li; Manliang Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12-km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province...

  8. Building resilience to climate variability in Uganda's “cattle corridor ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2 déc. 2014 ... Extensive areas of sub-Saharan, particularly East Africa, are vulnerable to the long-term consequences of climate change and the short-term increase in climate variability. With IDRC support, researchers from the Africa Innovations Institute set out to find ways to enhance the resilience of poor rural ...

  9. Farmer perceptions on climate change and variability in semi-arid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe prioritise climate variability as their major agricultural productivity-reducing problem. This paper raises the importance of considering local farmers' perceptions on climate risk, as this greatly influences on-farm investments and decision-making in agricultural management and production in ...

  10. Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2013-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

  11. Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

    2017-10-01

    Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

  12. AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

    2016-12-01

    Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

  13. Satellite-measured interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile: Spatial patterns and the influence of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldías, Gonzalo S.; Largier, John L.; Mendes, Renato; Pérez-Santos, Iván; Vargas, Cristian A.; Sobarzo, Marcus

    2016-08-01

    Ocean color imagery from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the Aqua platform is used to characterize the interannual variability of turbid river plumes off central-southern Chile. Emphasis is placed on the influence of climate fluctuations, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Additional satellite data on wind, boat-based hydrographic profiles, and regional climate indices are used to identify the influence of climate variability on the generation of anomalous turbid river plumes. The evolution of salinity at a coastal station on the 90 m isobath between the Itata and Biobío Rivers shows a freshwater surface layer with salinity < 32.5 and 5-10 m thick during major plume events in 2002, 2005 and 2006. Surface salinity minima are correlated with peaks in turbidy from the normalized water leaving radiance at 555 nm (nLw(555)), both representing turbid river plumes. EOF analysis reveals that major turbid plume events occurred primarily during warm phases of the ENSO and PDO, and negative phases of the AAO, when storm tracks are further north. Anomalously large turbid plumes extend long distances offshore (∼ 70-80 km), and individual plumes coalesce into a continuous plume along the coast that covers the entire continental shelf. Season-specific correlation analyses reveal an increased influence of the AAO on river plumes south of Punta Lavapié in spring-summer (negative correlation). North of this major cape, ENSO and PDO indices have a dominant influence on plumes with positive correlations with the nLw(555) signal in winter (and negative in summer). We discuss the biogeochemical implications of plume events and the importance of long-term and high-resolution ocean color observations for studying the temporal evolution of river plumes.

  14. Empirical evidence suggests adverse climate events have not affected Australian women's health and well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Jennifer R; Loxton, Deborah; Baker, Jeanine; Rich, Jane L; Dobson, Annette J

    2012-10-01

    To compare the health and well-being of women by exposure to adverse climate events. An Exceptional Circumstance declaration (EC) was used as a proxy for adverse climate events. The Australian government may provide financial support to people living in EC areas, i.e. areas experiencing a one in 20-25 year event (drought, flood or fire) that results in a severe, extended downturn in farm or farm-related income. Data from 6,584 53-58 year old non-metropolitan women participating in the 2004 survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were linked to EC data. Generalised linear models were used to analyse differences in SF-36 General Health (GH) and Mental Health (MH) and perceived stress by EC for all women. Models were adjusted for demographic, health-related and psychosocial factors potentially on the pathway between EC and health. Given that the effects on health were expected to be greater in vulnerable people, analyses were repeated for women with worse socioeconomic circumstances. GH, MH and stress did not differ for the 3,366 women in EC areas and 3,218 women in non-EC areas. GH, MH and stress were worse among vulnerable women (who had difficulty managing on available income) regardless of EC. This research adds to the existing literature on climate change, associated adverse climate events and health, by suggesting that multiple resources available in high income countries, including government support and individual psychosocial resources may mitigate some of the health impacts of adverse climate events, even among vulnerable people. © 2012 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2012 Public Health Association of Australia.

  15. Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

    2017-10-01

    Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

  16. LANDSCAPE VARIABILITY AND SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION IN CLIMATE MODELS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KLAASSEN, W; CLAUSSEN, M

    The Earth's surface shows variability at the landscape scale (1-10 km); the influence of surface variability at this scale has been analysed to provide a parameterization for use in large-scale atmospheric models with a grid size unable to solve the landscape scale explicitly. Landscape variations

  17. Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

    2015-06-01

    Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

  18. Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

    2017-06-01

    To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-06-27

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  20. Two new ESSEA Modules: (1) Pacific Influences on Climatic Change and Variability and (2) Assessment of Tsunami Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladochy, S.; Ramirez, P.; Patzert, W. C.

    2008-12-01

    The CSULA Departments of Geography and Geological Sciences, in cooperation with the Charter College of Education at CSULA, propose to introduce the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) On-line course for middle school teachers as a section of our undergraduate pre-service teacher course, PSCI 183: Earth Science for Elementary Teachers. Physical Science 183 was proposed as an activities and inquiry- based course for students needing an earth science foundation, but in an active learning environment. We have developed two ESSEA education modules centered on climate change and natural variability and on tsunami. The climate change module is based on a scenario in which students are part of a climate change advisory committee charged with providing the scientific framework for climate change. Students learn to distinguish between natural variability in the Pacific Ocean and trends in global climate change. Components of the module focus on interpreting trends in temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperatures and heights using datasets using NOAA websites. Quantitative analysis of the trends reveals patterns related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño/La Niña events, and global climate change. Identification of patterns and trends facilitate forecasting of southern California temperature and precipitation and allow policy development addressing the changing climate. Tsunami are repetitive, potentially destructive natural hazards impacting people across the globe. The tsunami module asks student to provide representatives of western US states with an assessment of tsunami risks. Through the exercise students learn what tsunami are, the tectonic connection to tsunami generation, tsunami wave characteristics and strategies for the development of a tsunami warning system.

  1. The number of primary events per variable affects estimation of the subdistribution hazard competing risks model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Allignol, Arthur; Fine, Jason P

    2017-03-01

    To examine the effect of the number of events per variable (EPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression coefficients, standard errors, empirical coverage rates of estimated confidence intervals, and empirical estimates of statistical power when using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard regression model to assess the effect of covariates on the incidence of events that occur over time in the presence of competing risks. Monte Carlo simulations were used. We considered two different definitions of the number of EPV. One included events of any type that occurred (both primary events and competing events), whereas the other included only the number of primary events that occurred. The definition of EPV that included only the number of primary events was preferable to the alternative definition, as the number of competing events had minimal impact on estimation. In general, 40-50 EPV were necessary to ensure accurate estimation of regression coefficients and associated quantities. However, if all of the covariates are continuous or are binary with moderate prevalence, then 10 EPV are sufficient to ensure accurate estimation. Analysts must base the number of EPV on the number of primary events that occurred. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

    2017-06-14

    Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Long-term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Todd Jr, Donald E [ORNL; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL; Mulholland, Patrick J [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Question: Are tree dynamics sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Hence, is vulnerability of forest communities to climatic variability depending on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East-Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long-term data set (1967-2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and we analyzed community dynamics for forest stands that different in their initial species composition (i.e., Chestnut Oak, Oak-Hickory, Pine, and Yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the 4-decade studied period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased their biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand-level responses to climatic variability were shown to be related to responses of specific component species; however, not for Pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in stands initially identified as Pine stands, decreased over time due to periodical outbreaks of the pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). The outbreaks on Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: Our results imply that vulnerability of developing forests to predicted climate conditions is stand-type dependent, and hence, is a function of species composition. Autogenic successional processes (or insect outbreaks) were found to prevail over climatic variability in determining long-term forest dynamics for stands dominated by sensitive species, emphasizing the importance of studying interactions between forest succession and climate change.

  4. Climate Information and Agricultural Practice in Adaptation to Climate Variability: The Case of Climate Field Schools in Indramayu, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Siregar, P.R.

    2011-01-01

    Inspired by the Farmer Field School methodology, a “Climate Field School” was conducted with farmers in the Indramayu region of Indonesia in 2003 to promote adaptive application of climate forecasts to crop selection decisions. However, five years after the Climate Field School, use of the forecasts

  5. Contemporary climate variability and forest fires in Deliblatska pescara

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dučić Vladan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the actual scenario of contemporary global climate changes and their possible influence on forest fires, the connections between temperature changes and precipitations on fires have been examined in Deliblatska pescara. The basic characteristics of fires have been analyzed in the area which is considered the most endangered in Serbia. The decreasing trend of annual number of fires was ascertained for period the 1948-2002. However, the trend of annual temperature and precipitation changes is not in accordance with the trend of annual number of fires. Some seasonal aspects related with the change of climate elements cannot also explain the decreasing number of fires. A rising trend of annual fire spread surface have been ascertained, which is in accordance with air temperature rise at the end of the 20th century. However, five extreme values were far above the upper standard deviation, which was explained by non climate factors (increase of surface under pine trees, mistakes during fire extinguishing and similar.

  6. Instrumental variable method for time-to-event data using a pseudo-observation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjaersgaard, Maiken I S; Parner, Erik T

    2016-06-01

    Observational studies are often in peril of unmeasured confounding. Instrumental variable analysis is a method for controlling for unmeasured confounding. As yet, theory on instrumental variable analysis of censored time-to-event data is scarce. We propose a pseudo-observation approach to instrumental variable analysis of the survival function, the restricted mean, and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks with right-censored data using generalized method of moments estimation. For the purpose of illustrating our proposed method, we study antidepressant exposure in pregnancy and risk of autism spectrum disorder in offspring, and the performance of the method is assessed through simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Seasonality of flood events in a changing climate - An uncertainty assessment for Europe through the combination of different climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Stephanie; Voß, Frank; Schneider, Christof

    2010-05-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) project an increasing intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events due to climate change. As a result, the frequency and magnitude of severe flood events is expected to increase in many regions. Furthermore, a change in the seasonality of flood events can be anticipated. In regions that regularly experience snowmelt floods, for instance, temperature increase will lead to a decreased snow accumulation and to a shortened duration of the snowpack. Thus, the risk of spring floods may be reduced. This study aims to estimate the impact of the projected climate change on the seasonality of flood events in the European region. For this purpose large scale river discharge simulations were carried out with the integrated, global model WaterGAP3 (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) with a spatial resolution of the grid cells of 5'. WaterGAP3 couples a hydrological model for the simulation of the terrestrial water cycle with a water use model that computes withdrawal and consumptive water use of the sectors manufacturing, electricity production, agriculture and private households. Thus, on the basis of daily climate input parameters with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and downscaled to the 5' grid scale level daily stream flow was simulated and analyzed. First, the seasonality of flood events of defined recurrence periods was determined for the reference period 1961-1990 and validated against measured river discharge data. Subsequently, WaterGAP3 was forced with bias corrected time series originating from simulation runs of different GCMs for the scenario period 2071-2100. To asses the uncertainty that arises from the GCM output used as input forcing to the hydrological model, the calculations were carried out for three different GCMs (Echam5, CNRM, ISLP) and two emission scenarios (A2 and B1 of the IPCC SRES scenarios), respectively. The study demonstrates that the selection of a particular GCM is a major source of uncertainty in assessing

  8. Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence

  9. Further Analysis of Variables That Affect Self-Control with Aversive Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Christopher J.; Neef, Nancy A.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine variables that affect self-control in the context of academic task completion by elementary school children with autism. In the baseline assessment of Study 1, mathematics problem completion was shown to be an aversive event, and sensitivity to task magnitude, task difficulty, and delay to task completion…

  10. Resolving combinatorial ambiguities in dilepton t t¯ event topologies with constrained M2 variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Dipsikha; Kim, Doojin; Kim, Jeong Han; Kong, Kyoungchul; Matchev, Konstantin T.

    2017-10-01

    We advocate the use of on-shell constrained M2 variables in order to mitigate the combinatorial problem in supersymmetry-like events with two invisible particles at the LHC. We show that in comparison to other approaches in the literature, the constrained M2 variables provide superior ansätze for the unmeasured invisible momenta and therefore can be usefully applied to discriminate combinatorial ambiguities. We illustrate our procedure with the example of dilepton t t ¯ events. We critically review the existing methods based on the Cambridge MT 2 variable and MAOS reconstruction of invisible momenta, and show that their algorithm can be simplified without loss of sensitivity, due to a perfect correlation between events with complex solutions for the invisible momenta and events exhibiting a kinematic endpoint violation. Then we demonstrate that the efficiency for selecting the correct partition is further improved by utilizing the M2 variables instead. Finally, we also consider the general case when the underlying mass spectrum is unknown, and no kinematic endpoint information is available.

  11. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  12. Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-02-27

    This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

  13. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  14. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  15. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  16. From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

    2015-08-01

    In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

  17. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  18. Sensitivity of bud burst in key tree species in the UK to recent climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abernethy, Rachel; Cook, Sally; Hemming, Deborah; McCarthy, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Analysing the relationship between the changing climate of the UK and the spatial and temporal distribution of spring bud burst plays an important role in understanding ecosystem functionality and predicting future phenological trends. The location and timing of bud burst of eleven species of trees alongside climatic factors such as, temperature, precipitation and hours of sunshine (photoperiod) were used to investigate: i. which species' bud burst timing experiences the greatest impact from a changing climate, ii. which climatic factor has the greatest influence on the timing of bud burst, and iii. whether the location of bud burst is influenced by climate variability. Winter heatwave duration was also analysed as part of an investigation into the relationship between temperature trends of a specific winter period and the following spring events. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis tools were used to visualise spatial patterns and to analyse the phenological and climate data through regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests. Where there were areas that showed a strong positive or negative relationship between phenology and climate, satellite imagery was used to calculate a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Leaf Area Index (LAI) to further investigate the relationships found. It was expected that in the north of the UK, where bud burst tends to occur later in the year than in the south, that the bud bursts would begin to occur earlier due to increasing temperatures and increased hours of sunshine. However, initial results show that for some species, the bud burst timing tends to remain or become later in the year. Interesting results will be found when investigating the statistical significance between the changing location of the bud bursts and each climatic factor.

  19. Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Carvajal-Escobar

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community; and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

  20. Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, A N; Gregersen, I B; Christensen, O B; Linde, J J; Mikkelsen, P S

    2009-01-01

    In this study the potential increase of extreme precipitation in a future warmer European climate has been examined. Output from the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM4 covering Europe has been analysed for two periods, a control period 1961-1990 and a scenario 2071-2100, the latter following the IPCC scenario A2. The model has a resolution of about 12 km, which is unique compared with existing RCM studies that typically operate at 25-50 km scale, and make the results relevant to hydrological phenomena occurring at the spatial scale of the infrastructure designed to drain off rainfall in large urban areas. Extreme events with one- and 24-hour duration were extracted using the Partial Duration Series approach, a Generalized Pareto Distribution was fitted to the data and T-year events for return periods from 2 to 100 years were calculated for the control and scenario period in model cells across Europe. The analysis shows that there will be an increase of the intensity of extreme events generally in Europe; Scandinavia will experience the highest increase and southern Europe the lowest. A 20 year 1-hour precipitation event will for example become a 4 year event in Sweden and a 10 year event in Spain. Intensities for short durations and high return periods will increase the most, which implies that European urban drainage systems will be challenged in the future.

  1. Linking the variability of atmospheric carbon monoxide to climate modes in the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, Rebecca; Monks, Sarah; Hammerling, Dorit; Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Emmons, Louisa; Edwards, David

    2017-04-01

    Biomass burning is a major driver of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The magnitude of emissions, such as CO, from biomass burning is connected to climate through both the availability and dryness of fuel. We investigate the link between CO and climate using satellite measured CO and climate indices. Observations of total column CO from the satellite instrument MOPITT are used to build a record of interannual variability in CO since 2001. Four biomass burning regions in the Southern Hemisphere are explored. Data driven relationships are determined between CO and climate indices for the climate modes: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA); and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Stepwise forward and backward regression is used to select the best statistical model from combinations of lagged indices. We find evidence for the importance of first-order interaction terms of the climate modes when explaining CO variability. Implications of the model results are discussed for the Maritime Southeast Asia and Australasia regions. We also draw on the chemistry-climate model CAM-chem to explain the source contribution as well as the relative contributions of emissions and meteorology to CO variability.

  2. Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey

    2017-06-01

    Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the