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Sample records for evacuation time estimation

  1. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A generic transportation network model for the calculation of evacuation time estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.; Urbanik, T. II

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuation times for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies. (author)

  2. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  3. CLEAR: a model for the calculation of evacuation-time estimates in Emergency Planning Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, M.A.; Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffice flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffice queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. CLEAR can calculate realistic evacuation time estimates using site specific data and can identify troublesome areas within an Emergency Planning Zone

  4. State of the art in evacuation time estimate studies for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbanik, T.E.; Jamison, J.D.

    1992-03-01

    In the event of a major accident at a commercial nuclear power station, exposure of the public to airborne radioactive materials can be prevented or greatly reduced by evacuating the area immediately surrounding the reactor site. Reactor licensees are required to conduct studies to estimate the time needed to evacuate the public from the area surrounding each nuclear power station. The results of such studies are used by regulatory personnel and emergency planners to assess the potential effectiveness of protective responses for the public. The time required to evacuate the public from a 10-mile emergency planning radius is estimated by analyzing the available transportation facilities and other relevant conditions within this radius. To support the analysis, data must be collected and assumptions must be made regarding the transportation facilities, the size and characteristics of the population and other conditions in the planning zone. This report describes standard approaches and provides recommendations regarding the relevant information, assumptions and methods to be used in performing evacuation time estimate studies

  5. Reliability analysis of road network for estimation of public evacuation time around NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Sun-Young; Lee, Gab-Bock; Chung, Yang-Geun [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    The most strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation of the public members when a great deal of radioactivity is released to environment. After the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant meltdown in the United States and Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in the U.S.S.R, many advanced countries including the United States and Japan have continued research on estimation of public evacuation time as one of emergency countermeasure technologies. Also in South Korea, 'Framework Act on Civil Defense: Radioactive Disaster Preparedness Plan' was established in 1983 and nuclear power plants set up a radiation emergency plan and have regularly carried out radiation emergency preparedness trainings. Nonetheless, there is still a need to improve technology to estimate public evacuation time by executing precise analysis of traffic flow to prepare practical and efficient ways to protect the public. In this research, road network for Wolsong and Kori NPPs was constructed by CORSIM code and Reliability analysis of this road network was performed.

  6. Analysis of techniques for estimating evacuation times for emergency planning zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urbanik, T [Texas Transportation Institute (United States); Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, WA (United States); Desrosiers, A [Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States); Lindell, M K; Schuller, C R [Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1980-11-01

    Limitations of current methodologies and some alternatives are discussed that point out that evacuation time is a combination of the time required for four separate actions. These are decision, notification, preparation, and response (travel) time. Times for these actions will overlap to some degree with some people receiving notification, some preparing to leave, and others traveling. Notification and preparation times significantly affect the evacuation time and must be known before time to clear an area can be calculated accurately. (author)

  7. A new way to estimate the evacuation time for people involved in a building fire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

    2004-01-01

    A survey about evacuation models is given. The current available evacuation models based on hand calculations are tested during the survey. The objectives have been to analyze the existing hand calculating methods and thereby validate or may be, disqualify a model. The survey is based on comparis...

  8. Study of the components of evacuation times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Smith, J.D.

    1997-11-01

    The magnitudes of accident dose risks calculated by the RADTRAN code depend directly on the time span between an accidental release and evacuation of the affected area surrounding potential radionuclide releases. In a previous study of truck and rail transportation accidents, and other incidents requiring evacuations, a lognormal distribution of evacuation times (time span from decision to evacuate until complete) was developed, which provided a better model for this parameter than the practice of using a highly conservative value of 24 hours. However, the distribution did not account for time required for responders to arrive on the scene, to evaluate the hazards to surrounding population and to initiate an evacuation. Data from US Department of Transportation (DOT) accident statistics have been collected and their distribution functions determined. The separate distribution functions were combined into a single, comprehensive distribution which may be sampled to supply values of the RADTRAN input parameter, EVACUATION. A sample RADTRAN calculation illustrating the effect on risks of using the distribution versus the original (24 hour), conservative point-estimate are also presented

  9. Study of the components of evacuation times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Smith, J.D.

    1998-01-01

    The magnitudes of accident dose-risks calculated by the RADTRAN code depend directly on the time span between an accidental release and evacuation of the affected area surrounding potential radionuclide releases. In a previous study of truck and rail transportation accidents, and other incidents requiring evacuations (Mills et al., 1995) a lognormal distribution of evacuation times (time span from decision to evacuate until complete) was developed, which provided a better model for this parameter than the practice of using a highly conservative value of 24 hours. However, the distribution did not account for time required for responders to arrive on the scene, to evaluate the hazards to surrounding population and to initiate an evacuation. Data from U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) accident statistics have been collected and their distribution functions determined. The separate distribution functions were combined into a single, comprehensive distribution which may be sampled to supply values of the RADTRAN input parameter, EVACUATION. A sample RADTRAN calculation illustrating the effect on risks of using the distribution versus the original (24 hours), conservative point-estimate are also presented. (authors)

  10. Benchmark study of the I-DYNEV evacuation time estimate computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbanik, T. II; Moeller, M.P.; Barnes, K.

    1988-06-01

    This report compares observed vehicle movement on a highway network during periods of peak computer traffic with a simulation of the traffic flow made with the I-DYNEV computer model. The purpose of the comparison is to detemine if the model can accurately simulate the patterns of vehicular movement and delay during congested commuter traffic. The results indicate that the I-DYNEV model adequately simulates the pattens of vehicular movement and delay associated with an evacuation, provided that the model's capacity reduction factor is an input parameter. The current I-DYNEV model automatically reduces capacity by 15% of input capacity to account for congestion-induced losses in capacity reduction due to congestion, the model underestimated capacity during congestion. Therefore, the use of a capacity reduction factor should be a decision made by the analysts, not the model. When I-DYNEV was used with a capacity reduction factor appropriate to the data set used (i.e., no reduction in capacity), I-DYNEV produced reasonable results. 3 refs., 18 figs., 3 tabs

  11. The estimated evacuation time for the emergency planning zone of the Kori nuclear site, with a focus on the precautionary action zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jang Hee; Jeong, Jae Jun [School of Mechanical Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Won Ki; Song, Eun Young; Cho, Cheol Woo [Div. of Nuclear Safety, Busan Metropolitan City, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-09-15

    The emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the city of Busan is divided into the precautionary actions zone (PAZ) and the urgent protective action planning zone; which have a 5-km radius and a 20-km to 21-km radius from the nuclear power plant site, respectively. In this study, we assumed that a severe accident occurred at Shin-Kori nuclear unit 3 and evaluated the dispersion speed of radiological material at each distance at various wind speeds, and estimated the effective dose equivalent and the evacuation time of PAZ residents with the goal of supporting off-site emergency action planning for the nuclear site. The total effective dose equivalent, which shows the effect of released radioactive materials on the residents, was evaluated using the RASCAL 4.2 program. In addition, a survey of 1,036 residents was performed using a standardized questionnaire, and the resident evacuation time according to road and distance was analyzed using the VISSIM 6.0 program. According to the results obtained using the VISSIM and RASCAL programs, it would take approximately 80 to 252.2 minutes for permanent residents to move out of the PAZ boundary, 40 to 197.2 minutes for students, 60 to 232.2 minutes for the infirm, such as elderly people and those in a nursing home or hospital, and 30 to 182.2 minutes for those temporarily within the area. Consequently, in the event of any delay in the evacuation, it is estimated that the residents would be exposed to up to 10 mSv·h-1 of radiation at the Exclusion Area Boundaries (EAB) boundary and 4-6 mSv·h-1 at the PAZ boundary. It was shown that the evacuation time for the residents is adequate in light of the time lapse from the initial moment of a severe accident to the radiation release. However, in order to minimize the evacuation time, it is necessary to maintain a system of close collaboration to avoid traffic congestion and spontaneous evacuation attempts.

  12. The estimated evacuation time for the emergency planning zone of the Kori nuclear site, with a focus on the precautionary action zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jang Hee; Jeong, Jae Jun; Shin, Won Ki; Song, Eun Young; Cho, Cheol Woo

    2016-01-01

    The emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the city of Busan is divided into the precautionary actions zone (PAZ) and the urgent protective action planning zone; which have a 5-km radius and a 20-km to 21-km radius from the nuclear power plant site, respectively. In this study, we assumed that a severe accident occurred at Shin-Kori nuclear unit 3 and evaluated the dispersion speed of radiological material at each distance at various wind speeds, and estimated the effective dose equivalent and the evacuation time of PAZ residents with the goal of supporting off-site emergency action planning for the nuclear site. The total effective dose equivalent, which shows the effect of released radioactive materials on the residents, was evaluated using the RASCAL 4.2 program. In addition, a survey of 1,036 residents was performed using a standardized questionnaire, and the resident evacuation time according to road and distance was analyzed using the VISSIM 6.0 program. According to the results obtained using the VISSIM and RASCAL programs, it would take approximately 80 to 252.2 minutes for permanent residents to move out of the PAZ boundary, 40 to 197.2 minutes for students, 60 to 232.2 minutes for the infirm, such as elderly people and those in a nursing home or hospital, and 30 to 182.2 minutes for those temporarily within the area. Consequently, in the event of any delay in the evacuation, it is estimated that the residents would be exposed to up to 10 mSv·h-1 of radiation at the Exclusion Area Boundaries (EAB) boundary and 4-6 mSv·h-1 at the PAZ boundary. It was shown that the evacuation time for the residents is adequate in light of the time lapse from the initial moment of a severe accident to the radiation release. However, in order to minimize the evacuation time, it is necessary to maintain a system of close collaboration to avoid traffic congestion and spontaneous evacuation attempts

  13. Study of evacuation times based on recent accident history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    A key parameter in the calculation of accident dose-risks by the RADTRAN 4 code is the time assigned for evacuation of the affected area surrounding the accident. Currently, in the interest of assured conservatism, this time is set at 24 hrs. Casual anecdotal evidence has indicated that this value is overly conservative and results in assignment of overly conservative estimates of accident dose-risk. Therefore, a survey of recent truck accidents involving various hazardous materials which required evacuation of surrounding populations reported in various news media was undertaken. Accounts of pertinent scenarios were gleaned from databases citing newspapers and other periodicals, and the local authorities involved in each were contacted to get details of the evacuation including time required. This paper presents the data obtained in the study and the resultant mean evacuation time plus limits and factors influencing specific results together with conclusions regarding the appropriate value to be used in the RADTRAN 4 code

  14. Analysis of community tsunami evacuation time: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunarto, Y.; Sari, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Tsunami in Indonesia is defined as local tsunami due to its occurrences which are within a distance of 200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. A local tsunami can be caused by an earthquake, landslide, or volcanic eruption. Tsunami arrival time in Indonesia is generally between 10-60 minutes. As the estimated time of the tsunami waves to reach the coast is 30 minutes after the earthquake, the community should go to the vertical or horizontal evacuation in less than 30 minutes. In an evacuation, the city frequently does the evacuation after obtaining official directions from the authorities. Otherwise, they perform an independent evacuation without correct instructions from the authorities. Both of these ways have several strengths and limitations. This study analyzes these methods regarding time as well as the number of people expected to be saved.

  15. Study on estimation of evacuation distances for nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Sohei; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2005-09-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) have conducted the analytical studies on the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), the severe accidents, and the optimization of protective actions. Based on the results of these studies, JAERI are investigating the method for taking urgent protective actions more reasonably. If an accident occurs in a nuclear power plant (NPP), early protective actions are carried out. To implement these actions more effectively, emergency preparedness and emergency planning are important, and especially prompt evacuation is expected to reduce a large amount of radiation exposures. To examine the effect of early protective measures by using a PSA method, estimation of the parameter uncertainty related in the time for early protective actions is needed. For this purpose, we have developed an analytical method for urgent protective actions using geographic information, and estimated the movement distance based on gathering points arrangement an population distribution. For this analysis, we used the gathering point data shown on each regional plans for disaster prevention which will be used in actual emergency situation and targeted the population inside Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). By applying this method for the existing sixteen commercial NPP sites, we estimated the average value and distribution of the movement distance for each sites. This report provides a brief description of the method for estimating the movement distance, input data for this analysis, and the result. Moreover, the problem on the method of evacuation distance analysis and usefulness of this method for emergency planning were discussed. (author)

  16. APPROXIMATION OF THE TIME TO INITIATE THE EVACUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří POKORNÝ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the basic prerequisites for securing the safety of people at large group events is to ensure their evacuation in case of emergencies. This article deals with the approximations of time to initiate the evacuation of persons in case of a fire at large group events organized in outdoor spaces. The solution is based on the principles of determining the period to initiate the evacuation of persons in terms of international ISO standards. Considering the specificities of the given outdoor space and possible related security measures, the article recommends the relevant sufficient amount of time to initiate an evacuation.

  17. Prediction of evacuation time for emergency planning zone of Uljin nuclear site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, In Young; Lee, Jai Ki

    2002-01-01

    The time for evacuation of residents in Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they are residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation, transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model can appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data, satisfying the purpose of this study

  18. Short-time home coming project in evacuation zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuzaki, Hideo

    2011-01-01

    Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) forced neighboring residents to evacuate, and evacuation zone (20 km radius from NPPs) was defined as highly contaminated and designated as no-entry zones. Residents had been obliged to live a refugee life for a longer period than expected. Short-time home coming project was initiated according to their requests. They came to the meeting place called transfer place (20 - 30 km radius from NPPs), wore protective clothing and personal dosimeter with having drinking water and came home in evacuation zone with staffs by bus. Their healthcare management professionals were fully prepared for emergency. After collecting necessary articles at home within two hours, they returned to the meeting place by bus for screening and dressing, and went back to refuge house. If screening data were greater than 13 kcpm using GM counters, partial body decontamination had been conducted by wiping and if greater than 100 kcpm, whole body decontamination was requested but not conducted. Dose rate of residents and staffs was controlled less than 1 mSv, which was alarm level of personal dosimeter. Stable iodine was prepared but actually not used. (T. Tanaka)

  19. A study on evacuation time from lecture halls in Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, W. N. A. W.; Tohir, M. Z. M.

    2018-04-01

    An evacuation situation in any building involves many risks. The geometry of building and high potential of occupant load may affect the efficiency of evacuation process. Although fire safety rules and regulations exist, they remain insufficient to guarantee the safety of all building occupants and do not prevent the dramatic events to be repeated. The main objective of this project is to investigate the relationship between the movement time, travel speed and occupant density during a series of evacuation drills specifically for lecture halls. Generally, this study emphasizes on the movement of crowd within a limited space and includes the aspects of human behaviour. A series of trial evacuations were conducted in selected lecture halls at Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia with the aim of collecting actual data for numerical analysis. The numerical data obtained during trial evacuations were used to determine the evacuation time, crowd movement and behaviour during evacuation process particularly for lecture halls. The evacuation time and number of occupants exiting from each exit were recorded. Video camera was used to record and observe the movement behaviour of occupants during evacuations. EvacuatioNZ was used to simulate the trials evacuations of DK 5 and the results predicted were compared with experimental data. EvacuatioNZ was also used to predict the evacuation time and the flow of occupants exiting from each door for DK 4 and DK 8.

  20. Real-time micro-modelling of city evacuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löhner, Rainald; Haug, Eberhard; Zinggerling, Claudio; Oñate, Eugenio

    2018-01-01

    A methodology to integrate geographical information system (GIS) data with large-scale pedestrian simulations has been developed. Advances in automatic data acquisition and archiving from GIS databases, automatic input for pedestrian simulations, as well as scalable pedestrian simulation tools have made it possible to simulate pedestrians at the individual level for complete cities in real time. An example that simulates the evacuation of the city of Barcelona demonstrates that this is now possible. This is the first step towards a fully integrated crowd prediction and management tool that takes into account not only data gathered in real time from cameras, cell phones or other sensors, but also merges these with advanced simulation tools to predict the future state of the crowd.

  1. A Dynamic Optimization Method of Indoor Fire Evacuation Route Based on Real-time Situation Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DING Yulin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available How to provide safe and effective evacuation routes is an important safeguard to correctly guide evacuation and reduce the casualties during the fire situation rapidly evolving in complex indoor environment. The traditional static path finding method is difficult to adjust the path adaptively according to the changing fire situation, which lead to the evacuation decision-making blindness and hysteresis. This paper proposes a dynamic method which can dynamically optimize the indoor evacuation routes based on the real-time situation awareness. According to the real-time perception of fire situation parameters and the changing indoor environment information, the evacuation route is optimized dynamically. The integrated representation of multisource indoor fire monitoring sensor observations oriented fire emergency evacuation is presented at first, real-time fire threat situation information inside building is then extracted from the observation data of multi-source sensors, which is used to constrain the dynamical optimization of the topology of the evacuation route. Finally, the simulation experiments prove that this method can improve the accuracy and efficiency of indoor evacuation routing.

  2. Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeffer, W.; Hofer, E.; Nowak, E.; Schnadt, H.

    1988-01-01

    The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  3. Real-Time Traffic Information for Emergency Evacuation Operations: Phase A Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzese, Oscar [ORNL; Zhang, Li [Mississippi State University (MSU); Mahmoud, Anas M. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Lascurain, Mary Beth [ORNL; Wen, Yi [Mississippi State University (MSU)

    2010-05-01

    There are many instances in which it is possible to plan ahead for an emergency evacuation (e.g., an explosion at a chemical processing facility). For those cases, if an accident (or an attack) were to happen, then the best evacuation plan for the prevailing network and weather conditions would be deployed. In other cases (e.g., the derailment of a train transporting hazardous materials), there may not be any previously developed plan to be implemented and decisions must be made ad-hoc on how to proceed with an emergency evacuation. In both situations, the availability of real-time traffic information plays a critical role in the management of the evacuation operations. To improve public safety during a vehicular emergency evacuation it is necessary to detect losses of road capacity (due to incidents, for example) as early as possible. Once these bottlenecks are identified, re-routing strategies must be determined in real-time and deployed in the field to help dissipate the congestion and increase the efficiency of the evacuation. Due to cost constraints, only large urban areas have traffic sensor deployments that permit access to some sort of real-time traffic information; any evacuation taking place in any other areas of the country would have to proceed without real-time traffic information. The latter was the focus of this SERRI/DHS (Southeast Region Research Initiative/Department of Homeland Security) sponsored project. That is, the main objective on the project was to improve the operations during a vehicular emergency evacuation anywhere by using newly developed real-time traffic-information-gathering technologies to assess traffic conditions and therefore to potentially detect incidents on the main evacuation routes. Phase A of the project consisted in the development and testing of a prototype system composed of sensors that are engineered in such a way that they can be rapidly deployed in the field where and when they are needed. Each one of these sensors

  4. PEDIC - A COMPUTER PROGRAM TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF EVACUATION ON POPULATION EXPOSURE FOLLOWING ACUTE RADIONUCLIDE RELEASES TO THE ATOMSPHERE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D. L.; Peloquin, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    The computer program PEDIC is described for estimation of the effect of evacuation on population exposure. The program uses joint frequency, annual average meteorological data and a simple population evacuation model to estimate exposure reduction due to movement of people away from radioactive plumes following an acute release of activity. Atmospheric dispersion is based on a sector averaged Gaussian model with consideration of plume rise and building wake effects. Appendices to the report provide details of the computer program design, a program listing, input card preparation instructions and sample problems.

  5. Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : [technical summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    When hurricanes threaten coastal cities, the most eff ective strategy to mitigate mortality is to evacuate the population : at risk. However, public offi cials face several transportation challenges when managing evacuations from a large city : like ...

  6. A Case Study on the Impacts of Connected Vehicle Technology on No-Notice Evacuation Clearance Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karzan Bahaaldin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available No-notice evacuations of metropolitan areas can place significant demands on transportation infrastructure. Connected vehicle (CV technology, with real-time vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communications, can help emergency managers to develop efficient and cost-effective traffic management plans for such events. The objectives of this research were to evaluate the impacts of CVs on no-notice evacuations using a case study of a downtown metropolitan area. The microsimulation software VISSIM was used to model the roadway network and the evacuation traffic. The model was built, calibrated, and validated for studying the performance of traffic during the evacuation. The researchers evaluated system performance with different CV penetration rates (from 0 to 30 percent CVs and measured average speed, average delays, and total delays. The findings suggest significant reductions in total delays when CVs reached a penetration rate of 30 percent, albeit increases in delays during the beginning of the evacuation. Additionally, the benefits could be greater for evacuations that last longer and with higher proportions of CVs in the vehicle stream.

  7. The Impact of Transport Time on Outcomes Following Evacuation from Point of Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-16

    reasonable in relation to anticipated benefits and the importance of the knowledge that may reasonably be expected to result. The subject selection is...patients with traumatic injuries require urgent medical attention and expeditious evacuation to improve survival. Aeromedical evacuation platforms such as

  8. Evacuation exercise

    CERN Multimedia

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2094367

    2017-01-01

    In the event of an emergency, it is important that staff and visitors are evacuated safely and efficiently. Hence CERN organises regularly emergency response and evacuation exercise (also known as an ‘evacuation drill’) in different buildings across the sites.

  9. Optimal crowd evacuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Daamen, W.; Duives, D.C.; Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the optimal allocation of routes, destination, and departure times to members of a crowd, for instance in case of an evacuation or another hazardous situation in which the people need to leave the area as quickly as possible. The generic approach minimizes the evacuation times,

  10. An arbitrary polynomial chaos-based approach to analyzing the impacts of design parameters on evacuation time under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xie, Q.; Lu, S.; Costola, D.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    In performance-based fire protection design of buildings, much attention is paid to design parameters by fire engineers or experts. However, due to the time-consuming evacuation models, it is computationally prohibitive to adopt the conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to examine the effect of

  11. Estimation and optimization of thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Ezen, H. Hüseyin; Küçüksille, Ecir U.; Şahin, Arzu Şencan

    2014-05-01

    In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) in order to predict the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system have been used. The experimental data for the training and testing of the networks were used. The results of ANN are compared with ANFIS in which the same data sets are used. The R2-value for the thermal performance values of collector is 0.811914 which can be considered as satisfactory. The results obtained when unknown data were presented to the networks are satisfactory and indicate that the proposed method can successfully be used for the prediction of the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collectors. In addition, new formulations obtained from ANN are presented for the calculation of the thermal performance. The advantages of this approaches compared to the conventional methods are speed, simplicity, and the capacity of the network to learn from examples. In addition, genetic algorithm (GA) was used to maximize the thermal performance of the system. The optimum working conditions of the system were determined by the GA.

  12. Some effects of temperature, meal size, and body weight on gastric evacuation time in the dab Limanda limanda (L)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jobling, M; Gwyther, D; Grove, D J

    1977-03-01

    Gastric emptying time in the dab, Limanda limanda, has been studied using an X-ray technique. The addition of 25% barium sulphate to a test meal did not significantly affect the transit time. Lowering the experimental temperature from 16.4 to 8.5/sup 0/C markedly decreased gastric evacuation time. An increase in ration size led to an increase in the time required to empty the stomach and also to increase the amount of food digested per unit of time. For any given ration size, expressed as percent body weight, the larger the animal the longer is the time required for evacuation of that meal. We suggest that the food intake per day, as a percentage of live body weight, will be smaller for larger L. limanda in the wild.

  13. Fiber Bragg grating sensors for real-time monitoring of evacuation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guru Prasad, A. S.; Hegde, Gopalkrishna M.; Asokan, S.

    2010-03-01

    Fiber bragg grating (FBG) sensors have been widely used for number of sensing applications like temperature, pressure, acousto-ultrasonic, static and dynamic strain, refractive index change measurements and so on. Present work demonstrates the use of FBG sensors in in-situ measurement of vacuum process with simultaneous leak detection capability. Experiments were conducted in a bell jar vacuum chamber facilitated with conventional Pirani gauge for vacuum measurement. Three different experiments have been conducted to validate the performance of FBG sensor in monitoring vacuum creating process and air bleeding. The preliminary results of FBG sensors in vacuum monitoring have been compared with that of commercial Pirani gauge sensor. This novel technique offers a simple alternative to conventional method for real time monitoring of evacuation process. Proposed FBG based vacuum sensor has potential applications in vacuum systems involving hazardous environment such as chemical and gas plants, automobile industries, aeronautical establishments and leak monitoring in process industries, where the electrical or MEMS based sensors are prone to explosion and corrosion.

  14. Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Richards, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure as a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

  15. Simulated Evacuations Into Water

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McLean, Garnet

    2004-01-01

    .... Actual emergency data to support ditching certification are not available; there have been questions as to whether evacuation flow rates onto land are appropriate for use in ditching-related flotation time computations...

  16. A large scale evacuation. Tasks of evacuator. Collapse of medical system at the time of areal indication for large scale indoor refuge and problems for restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

    2012-01-01

    About the evacuation from disasters of quake/tsunami on Mar. 11, 2011, and Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident (Mar. 12-15), described are its social background, influence on the local society, medicare and works of medical staff. The disaster immediately blocked means of communication and transportation in Minamisoma City, and the Japan government indicated the indoor refuge of residents in the zone at 3 km distance from the Plant, then at 20 km on 12th and 30 km on 15th. About 123 thousands residents nearby had to evacuate after all: the largest scale of evacuation by the nuclear accident in Japan. Author's Minamisoma Citizens' Hospital (MCH) was located at 23 km from the Plant. Residents could know about the government indications through various media before their official announcements, and many had begun to evacuate. MCH accepted >100 victims, and measured their contamination as well as the ambient dose, using GM counter from 12th. The highest dose was 16 mc-Sv/h on 20th. Following the hydrogen explosion of no.3 reactor on 14th, residents were bewildered by the indication of indoor refuge, which impacted social activities like stoppage of commerce and brought about residents' mental conflict and solitary. Movement of all 107 hospitalized patients to neighboring facilities in Niigata prefecture started on 18th and actually completed on 20th with help from Self Defense Force. Children, pregnant women and certain patients were prohibited to enter the newly defined emergent evacuation preparation (EEP) zone on Apr. 11, within 30 km afar from the Plant, which inhibited the areal restoration and medicare. At present that 1.5 years have passed since the disaster, the number of medical stuff is quite insufficient near the old EEP zone. There, now 2/3 of population before the disaster are beginning their life, and most are elderly, suggesting the necessity of rearrangement of medical systems which were seemingly once collapsed. (T.T.)

  17. Research on evacuation planning as nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Kazuya

    2007-10-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has introduced new concepts of precautionary action zone (PAZ) and urgent protective action planning zone (UPZ) in 'Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency' (GS-R-2 (2002)), in order to reduce substantially the risk of severe deterministic health effects. Open literature based research was made to reveal problems on evacuation planning and the preparedness for nuclear emergency arising from introduction of PAZ into Japan that has applied the emergency planning zone (EPZ) concept currently. In regard to application of PAZ, it should be noted that the requirements for preparedness and response for a nuclear or radiological emergency are not only dimensional but also timely. The principal issue is implementation of evacuation of precautionary decided area within several hours. The logic of evacuation planning for a nuclear emergency and the methods of advance public education and information in the U.S. is effective for even prompt evacuation to the outside of the EPZ. As concerns evacuation planning for a nuclear emergency in Japan, several important issues to be considered were found, that is, selection of public reception centers which are outside area of the EPZ, an unique reception center assigned to each emergency response planning area, public education and information of practical details about the evacuation plan in advance, and necessity of the evacuation time estimates. To establish a practical evacuation planning guide for nuclear emergencies, further researches on application of traffic simulation technology to evacuation time estimates and on knowledge of actual evacuation experience in natural disasters and chemical plant accidents are required. (author)

  18. Feasibility of evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The main question is whether evacuation of people is feasible in case of accidents with a nuclear power plant. The limiting conditions of this question are extracted from other studies. This study is therefore focused on a postulated accident in a newly built nuclear power plant with an electric capacity of 1000 Megawatt and a source term of one percent. In this particular case an evacuation should take place within the period between the accident and the emission of nuclear materials. Initial focus is on the administrative-organizational aspects of evacuation. Then bottlenecks in the technical implementation of evacuation are determined. An analysis is made for each potential Dutch location (Borssele, Eemshaven, Maasvlakte, Moerdijk and Westelijke Noordoostpolderdijk) of a nuclear power plant. By means of a model the following question is examined: can the population leave the danger area or be evacuated on time, under certain circumstances. It is concluded that preventive evacuation of the population from the planned locations is feasible, but at Moerdijk complications may occur because of the presence of some homes for the elderly and a nursing home. 18 refs.; 7 figs.; 2 tabs

  19. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  20. Indoor guided evacuation: TIN for graph generation and crowd evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengchao Xu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two complementary methods: an approach to compute a network data-set for indoor space of a building by using its two-dimensional (2D floor plans and limited semantic information, combined with an optimal crowd evacuation method. The approach includes three steps: (1 generate critical points in the space, (2 connect neighbour points to build up the network, and then (3 run the optimal algorithm for optimal crowd evacuation from a room to the exit gates of the building. Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN is used in the first two steps. The optimal evacuation crowd is not based on the nearest evacuation gate for a person but relies on optimal sorting of the waiting lists at each gate of the room to be evacuated. As an example case, a rectangular room with 52 persons with two gates is evacuated in 102 elementary interval times (one interval corresponds to the time for one step for normal velocity walking, whereas it would have been evacuated in not less than 167 elementary steps. The procedure for generating the customized network involves the use of 2D floor plans of a building and some common Geographic Information System (GIS functions. This method combined with the optimal sorting lists will be helpful for guiding crowd evacuation during any emergency.

  1. Travel time estimation using Bluetooth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of using a Bluetooth Probe Detection System (BPDS) to : estimate travel time in an urban area. Specifically, the study investigated the possibility of measuring overall congestion, the : ...

  2. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: luquetti@ien.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  3. Timing of Etonogestrel Implant Insertion After Dilation and Evacuation: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowett, Allison A; Ali, Rose; Cooper, Mary A; Evans, Mark; Conzuelo, Gabriel; Cremer, Miriam

    2018-05-01

    To compare the 6-month use rate of the etonogestrel implant placed immediately after dilation and evacuation (D&E) with placement 2-4 weeks postprocedure. This is a randomized controlled trial of women seeking abortion between 14 0/7 and 23 5/7 weeks of gestation and desiring the etonogestrel contraceptive implant at an urban family planning clinic. Participants were randomized to device insertion immediately after the D&E compared with delayed insertion in 2-4 weeks. The primary outcome was implant use rate at 6 months after insertion and was determined by follow-up phone interviews. Secondary outcomes included repeat pregnancy rates and method satisfaction. The sample size of 120 participants was calculated based on a power of 0.80 to demonstrate a 20% difference in implant use rates between groups assuming 40% of women overall are not using the device 6 months after the procedure. Between November 2015 and October 2016, 148 participants were enrolled. Seventy-three participants (49.3%) were randomized to and underwent immediate implant insertion after D&E. The remaining 75 (50.6%) were randomized to delayed insertion. There were no significant differences in sociodemographic characteristics between the groups. Placement rate was 100% in the immediate group compared with 42.7% in the delayed group (P<.01). At 6 months, 40 of 43 (93%) women from the immediate group who completed follow-up continued use of the implant, whereas 19 of 30 (63.3%) women from the delayed group who completed follow-up were using the device (P=.002). Follow-up rates were low at 58.9% in the immediate group compared with 40.0% in the delayed group. Women were more likely to be using the etonogestrel implant at 6 months after D&E if they underwent immediate compared with delayed insertion. The very high loss to follow-up rate makes it difficult to draw conclusions about acceptability of the device and pregnancy rates. ClinicalTrials.gov, 02037919.

  4. Evacuation of bedridden occupants: experimental research outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Strating, N.; van Herpen, R.; Zeiler, W.

    2017-01-01

    Bedridden building occupants in hospitals and nursing homes who are not able to rescue themselves in case of a fire emergency require assistance during an evacuation. A building emergency team usually fulfils this function and will have to remove the occupants from the room. The speed at which such an evacuation is conducted however is unknown. Experiments in practice were conducted in hospitals to obtain insight in the evacuation speed and absolute evacuation times required. Furthermore, a s...

  5. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  6. Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : research project capsule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-08-01

    Current hurricane evacuation transportation modeling uses an approach fashioned after the : traditional four-step procedure applied in urban transportation planning. One of the limiting : features of this approach is that it models traffic in a stati...

  7. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    catastrophe risk model, is required to explore the casualty implications of different possible hazard scenarios, to assess the proportion of an evacuated population who would owe their lives to an evacuation, and to estimate the economic loss associated with an unnecessary evacuation. This paper will review the developing methodology for applying catastrophe risk modelling to support public policy in evacuation decision-making, and provide illustrations from across the range of natural hazards. Evacuation during volcanic crises is a prime example, recognizing the improving forecasting skill of volcanologists, now able to account probabilistically for precursory seismological, geodetic, and geochemical monitoring data. This methodology will be shown to help civic authorities make sounder risk-informed decisions on the timing and population segmentation of evacuation from both volcanoes and calderas, such as Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, which are in densely populated urban regions.

  8. Transit-Based Emergency Evacuation with Transit Signal Priority in Sudden-Onset Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciyun Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents methods of transit signal priority without transit-only lanes for a transit-based emergency evacuation in a sudden-onset disaster. Arterial priority signal coordination is optimized when a traffic signal control system provides priority signals for transit vehicles along an evacuation route. Transit signal priority is determined by “transit vehicle arrival time estimation,” “queuing vehicle dissipation time estimation,” “traffic signal status estimation,” “transit signal optimization,” and “arterial traffic signal coordination for transit vehicle in evacuation route.” It takes advantage of the large capacities of transit vehicles, reduces the evacuation time, and evacuates as many evacuees as possible. The proposed methods were tested on a simulation platform with Paramics V6.0. To evaluate and compare the performance of transit signal priority, three scenarios were simulated in the simulator. The results indicate that the methods of this study can reduce the travel times of transit vehicles along an evacuation route by 13% and 10%, improve the standard deviation of travel time by 16% and 46%, and decrease the average person delay at a signalized intersection by 22% and 17% when the traffic flow saturation along an evacuation route is 0.81.0, respectively.

  9. A gastric evacuation model for three predatory gadoids and implications of using pooled field data of stomach contents to estimate food rations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2001-01-01

    evacuation rate was related by a negative power function to energy density of fish prey,) er an extended range from 3(.)4 to 11(.)5 kJ g (1) of the effector variable. Gastric evacuation of crustacean prey seemed to depend on the characteristics of their exoskeleton, Gastric evacuation of mixed meal, composed...

  10. Evacuation decision-making at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, D.J.; Johnson, J.H. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    During the emergency at the Three Mile Island generating station in the United States, evacuation became a common adaptive response among the local population. The planning for nuclear emergencies in the US has proceeded as if there were no significant differences between nuclear and other types of disasters requiring evacuation. In the United Kingdom, emergency planning for a new generation of pressurized water reactors, about which there is legitimate safety concern, has been influenced not at all by the experience with the Three Mile Island PWR in 1979. The TMI accident has been the US's most serious experience with a nuclear plant accident and therefore is an appropriate analogy for predicting the evacuation response to future nuclear emergencies. In this light, the authors accept the need to develop models that will enable them to predict the magnitude of the evacuation shadow phenomenon around other nuclear power sites and estimate its impact on our plans to remove the threatened population from the hazard zone in the minimum amount of time. Rather than depend on education and information control to stifle evacuation response, the authors believe that evacuation plans need to build on people's natural behavioural inclinations to protect themselves in response to the nuclear hazard

  11. Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

    2014-05-01

    Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as

  12. Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to determine the number of people that may or may not have enough time to evacuate. The maps take into account the elevation changes and the different types of land cover that a person would encounter along the way.

  13. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  14. Comparison of calculation and simulation of evacuation in real buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szénay, Martin; Lopušniak, Martin

    2018-03-01

    Each building must meet requirements for safe evacuation in order to prevent casualties. Therefore methods for evaluation of evacuation are used when designing buildings. In the paper, calculation methods were tested on three real buildings. The testing used methods of evacuation time calculation pursuant to Slovak standards and evacuation time calculation using the buildingExodus simulation software. If calculation methods have been suitably selected taking into account the nature of evacuation and at the same time if correct values of parameters were entered, we will be able to obtain almost identical times of evacuation in comparison with real results obtained from simulation. The difference can range from 1% to 27%.

  15. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  16. An Evaluation of Infrastructure for Tsunami Evacuation in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cedillos, V.; Canney, N.; Deierlein, G.; Diposaptono, S.; Geist, E. L.; Henderson, S.; Ismail, F.; Jachowski, N.; McAdoo, B. G.; Muhari, A.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Sieh, K. E.; Toth, J.; Tucker, B. E.; Wood, K.

    2009-12-01

    Padang has one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high hazard, vulnerable terrain and population density. The current strategy to prepare for tsunamis in Padang is focused on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and raising local awareness. Although these are all necessary, they are insufficient. Padang’s proximity to the Sunda Trench and flat terrain make reaching safe ground impossible for much of the population. The natural warning in Padang - a strong earthquake that lasts over a minute - will be the first indicator of a potential tsunami. People will have about 30 minutes after the earthquake to reach safe ground. It is estimated that roughly 50,000 people in Padang will be unable to evacuate in that time. Given these conditions, other means to prepare for the expected tsunami must be developed. With this motivation, GeoHazards International and Stanford University’s Chapter of Engineers for a Sustainable World partnered with Indonesian organizations - Andalas University and Tsunami Alert Community in Padang, Laboratory for Earth Hazards, and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries - in an effort to evaluate the need for and feasibility of tsunami evacuation infrastructure in Padang. Tsunami evacuation infrastructure can include earthquake-resistant bridges and evacuation structures that rise above the maximum tsunami water level, and can withstand the expected earthquake and tsunami forces. The choices for evacuation structures vary widely - new and existing buildings, evacuation towers, soil berms, elevated highways and pedestrian overpasses. This interdisciplinary project conducted a course at Stanford University, undertook several field investigations, and concluded that: (1) tsunami evacuation structures and bridges are essential to protect the people in Padang, (2) there is a need for a more thorough engineering-based evaluation than conducted to-date of the suitability of

  17. Estimation of the total population moving into and out of the 20 km evacuation zone during the Fukushima NPP accident as calculated using 'Auto-GPS' mobile phone data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayano, Ryugo S.; Adachi, Ryutaro

    2013-01-01

    The first objective data showing the geographical locations of people in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, obtained by an analysis of GPS (Global Positioning System)-enabled mobile phone logs, are presented. The method of estimation is explained, and the flow of people into and out of the 20 km evacuation zone during the accident is visualized. (author)

  18. Evacuated aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Jørgen Munthe; Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space ......) combined with a solar energy transmittance above 0.75.......This paper describes the main characteristics of monolithic silica aerogel and its application in evacuated superinsulating aerogel glazing including the evacuation and assembling process. Furthermore, the energetic benefit of aerogel glazing is quantified. In evacuated aerogel glazing the space...... between the glass panes is filled with monolithic silica aerogel evacuated to a rough vacuum of approximately 1-10 hPa. The aerogel glazing does not depend on use of low emissive coatings that have the drawback of absorbing a relatively large part of the solar radiation that otherwise could reduce...

  19. Evacuation of Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run

    is to provide new data and information on children’s evacuation, which is a step towards including children in evacuation models and calculations. Little is known about children’s evacuation characteristics in fire compared to other parts of the population. In recent years there has been more focus on children’s...... evacuation which is reflected in a rising number of publications on the topic. This thesis comprises evacuation experiments in daycares for children 0-6 years old and elementary schools for children aged 6-15 years. Full scale evacuations were filmed allowing detailed data analysis. Findings and results...... to isolate single factors and findings. Although an engineering approach fits best to the measurable parameters, the other areas are at least equally important when investigating or predicting children’s evacuation. The key findings of the thesis are: Children are very dependent on adults for initiating...

  20. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  1. Exit selection strategy in pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Hao; Zhang Bin-Ya; Shao Chun-Fu; Xing Yan

    2014-01-01

    A mixed strategy of the exit selection in a pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits is constructed by fusing the distance-based and time-based strategies through a cognitive coefficient, in order to reduce the evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of exits or pedestrian layout, to find a critical density to distinguish whether the strategy of exit selection takes effect or not, and to analyze the exit selection results with different cognitive coefficients. The strategy of exit selection is embedded in the computation of the shortest estimated distance in a dynamic parameter model, in which the concept of a jam area layer and the procedure of step-by-step expending are introduced. Simulation results indicate the characteristics of evacuation time gradually varying against cognitive coefficient and the effectiveness of reducing evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of pedestrian or exit layout. It is found that there is a critical density to distinguish whether a pedestrian jam occurs in the evacuation and whether an exit selection strategy is in effect. It is also shown that the strategy of exit selection has no effect on the evacuation process in the no-effect phase with a low density, and that evacuation time and exit selection are dependent on the cognitive coefficient and pedestrian initial density in the in-effect phase with a high density. (general)

  2. Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Betancourt, Theresa S; Gilman, Stephen E

    2015-01-05

    To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. Cohort study. National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n = 45,463; women: n = 22,021; men: n = 23,442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital

  3. Assessing the vulnerability of the evacuation emergency plan: the case of the El Hierro, Canary Island, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, J. M.; Garcia, A.; Llinares, A.; Lopez, P.; Ortinz, R.

    2012-04-01

    On July 17, 2011 an unrest was detected in the El Hierro island. A serretian submarine eruption started on October 10th in the southern area of the island, two miles away from La Restinga village. The analysis and interpretation of seismic and deformation data show a large volume of intruded magma. These data also show a high probability of a new vent opening. One of the most complex volcanic hazard scenarios is a new open vent in the El Golfo Valley, in the north slope of the island, where more than 5,000 people live. In this area there are only two possible terrestrial evacuation routes: 1) HI-1 road NE direction, the fastest but most vulnerable one, very near a 1,000 meters height cliff and through a 2 km tunnel with a structural deficiency that had to be closed during high energy periods of seismic activity; and 2) HI-1 road SW direction, a mountain road with many curves, frequent small landslides and fog. The Emergency Plan of the island takes into account the entire evacuation of El Golfo Valley in case of eruption. This process will be carried out by means of an assisted evacuation. The evacuees will be transported to a temporally regrouping shelter outside the valley to organize the transport to Tenerife Island. Only those people who have a second residence or relatives outside the affected area will be able to remain in the island. The evacuation time estimated by authorities for the entire evacuation of El Golfo Valley is of about 4 hours. This is extremely low considering: the complexity of the area; the number of evacuees; the lack of preparedness by the population; and adverse weather conditions. To evaluate the Evacuation Plan vulnerability, a series of evacuation scenarios have been simulated: self-evacuation; assisted evacuation; both terrestrial evacuation routes. The warning time, the response time by the population and the evacuation time have been taken into account.

  4. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

    2018-05-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. An interval-parameter mixed integer multi-objective programming for environment-oriented evacuation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. Z.; Huang, G. H.; Yan, X. P.; Cai, Y. P.; Li, Y. P.

    2010-05-01

    Large crowds are increasingly common at political, social, economic, cultural and sports events in urban areas. This has led to attention on the management of evacuations under such situations. In this study, we optimise an approximation method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. This method, based on an interval-parameter multi-objective optimisation model, has potential for use in a flexible decision support system for evacuation management. The modeling solutions are obtained by sequentially solving two sub-models corresponding to lower- and upper-bounds for the desired objective function value. The interval solutions are feasible and stable in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving decision makers' estimates under different conditions. The resulting model can be used for a systematic analysis of the complex relationships among evacuation time, cost and environmental considerations. The results of a case study used to validate the proposed model show that the model does generate useful solutions for planning evacuation management and practices. Furthermore, these results are useful for evacuation planners, not only in making vehicle allocation decisions but also for providing insight into the tradeoffs among evacuation time, environmental considerations and economic objectives.

  6. Exit choice, (pre-)movement time and (pre-)evacuation behaviour in hotel fire evacuation – Behavioural analysis and validation of the use of serious gaming in experimental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kobes, M.; Helsloot, I.; Vries, de B.; Post, J.G.

    2010-01-01

    Human behaviour in fires is mainly studied by incident evaluations and real-life experiments, such as unannounced evacuation drills. The possibilities of virtual reality for studying human behaviour in fires are so far hardly adopted by researchers. Nevertheless, the application of a behavioural

  7. Estimates of expansion time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.

    1979-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of the expansion of a spacefaring civilization show that descendants of that civilization should be found near virtually every useful star in the Galaxy in a time much less than the current age of the Galaxy. Only extreme assumptions about local population growth rates, emigration rates, or ship ranges can slow or halt an expansion. The apparent absence of extraterrestrials from the solar system suggests that no such civilization has arisen in the Galaxy. 1 figure

  8. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

    2017-01-01

    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

  9. Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.

    2016-01-01

    Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

  10. Auditory evacuation beacons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Bronkhorst, A.W.; Boer, L.C.

    2005-01-01

    Auditory evacuation beacons can be used to guide people to safe exits, even when vision is totally obscured by smoke. Conventional beacons make use of modulated noise signals. Controlled evacuation experiments show that such signals require explicit instructions and are often misunderstood. A new

  11. Estimation of thyroid equivalent doses during evacuation based on body surface contamination levels in the nuclear accident of FDNPS in 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohba, Takashi; Hasegawa, Arifumi; Kohayakawa, Yoshitaka; Kondo, Hisayoshi; Suzuki, Gen

    2017-09-01

    To reduce uncertainty in thyroid dose estimation, residents' radiation protection behavior should be reflected in the estimation. Screening data of body surface contamination provide information on exposure levels during evacuation. Our purpose is to estimate thyroid equivalent doses based on body surface contamination levels using a new methodology. We obtained a record of 7,539 residents/evacuees. Geiger-Mueller survey meter measurement value in cpm was translated into Bq/cm2 according to the nuclides densities obtained by measuring clothing from two persons by germanium γ-spectrometer. The measurement value of body surface contamination on head was adjusted by a natural removal rate of 15 hours and radionuclides' physical half-life. Thyroid equivalent dose of 1-year-old children by inhalation was estimated by two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation. The proportions of evacuees/residents with measurement value in cpm of Namie and Minamisoma groups were higher than those of other groups during both periods (p<0.01, Kruskal-Wallis). During 12-14 March period, 50 and 95 percentiles of thyroid equivalent doses by inhalation were estimated as 2.7 and 86.0 mSv, respectively, for Namie group, and 4.2 and 17.2 mSv, respectively, for Minamisoma group, 0.1 and 1.0 mSv, respectively, for Tomioka/Okuma/Futaba/Naraha group, and 0.2 and 2.1 mSv, respectively, for the other group. During 15- 17 March period, 50 and 95 percentiles of thyroid equivalent doses by inhalation were 0.8 and 15.7 mSv, respectively, for Namie group, and 1.6 and 8.4 mSv, respectively, for Minamisoma group, 0.2 and 13.2 mSv, respectively, for Tomioka/Okuma/Futaba/Naraha group, and 1.2 and 12.7 mSv, respectively, for the other group. It was indicated that inhalation dose was generally higher in Namie and Minamisoma groups during 12-14 March than those during 15-17 March might reflect different self-protective behavior to radioactive plumes from other groups.

  12. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  13. Parameter Estimation in Continuous Time Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela M. ATANASIU

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper will aim to presents the applications of a continuous-time parameter estimation method for estimating structural parameters of a real bridge structure. For the purpose of illustrating this method two case studies of a bridge pile located in a highly seismic risk area are considered, for which the structural parameters for the mass, damping and stiffness are estimated. The estimation process is followed by the validation of the analytical results and comparison with them to the measurement data. Further benefits and applications for the continuous-time parameter estimation method in civil engineering are presented in the final part of this paper.

  14. Evacuation of Bed-bound Patients-STEPS Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Anne; Dederichs, Anne Simone

    2016-01-01

    Fires in hospitals occur, and evacuation of bed-bound patients might be necessary in case of emergency. The current study concerns the evacuation of bed-bound patients from a fire section in a hospital using hospital porters. The simulations are performed using the STEPS program. The aim...... of the study is to investigate the evacuation time of bed-bound hospital patients using different walking speeds from the literature, and the influence of the number of hospital porters on the total evacuation times of bed-bound patients. Different scenarios were carried out with varying staff......-to-patient ratios that simulate the horizontal evacuation of 40 bed-bound patients into a different fire section. It was found that the staff-to-patient-ratio affects the total evacuation times. However, the total evacuation times do not decrease linearly and a saturation effect is seen at a staff-to-patient ratio...

  15. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  16. Dynamic travel time estimation using regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    This report presents a methodology for travel time estimation by using regression trees. The dissemination of travel time information has become crucial for effective traffic management, especially under congested road conditions. In the absence of c...

  17. Exit choice, (pre-)movement time and (pre-)evacuation behaviour in hotel fire evacuation – Behavioural analysis and validation of the use of serious gaming in experimental research

    OpenAIRE

    Kobes, M.; Helsloot, I.; de Vries, B.; Post, J.

    2010-01-01

    Human behaviour in fires is mainly studied by incident evaluations and real-life experiments, such as unannounced evacuation drills. The possibilities of virtual reality for studying human behaviour in fires are so far hardly adopted by researchers. Nevertheless, the application of a behavioural assessment and research tool (BART) in virtual reality is expected to be a valuable supplement on the existing research methods. The innovative instrument will be validated by comparing the results of...

  18. Evacuation dynamics of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne

    2010-01-01

    higher walking speeds in spiral stairs when the children are familiar with the evacuation path. Higher per-son densities and faster flow through doors were obtained among the children than found in literature on adults. Children in the younger age group are generally slower than the older children....... The children walk slower in horizontal plan than adults, however they are keen to run during evacuations, in the latter case their travel speed increases and exceeds the adults’. Since the evacuation characte-ristics of children differ in many ways from those of adults, nowadays models badly comprehend...

  19. Accuracy of prehospital transport time estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, David J; Kahn, Jeremy M; Angus, Derek C; Martin-Gill, Christian; Callaway, Clifton W; Rea, Thomas D; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kurland, Kristen; Seymour, Christopher W

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of prehospital transport times are an important part of emergency care system research and planning; however, the accuracy of these estimates is unknown. The authors examined the accuracy of three estimation methods against observed transport times in a large cohort of prehospital patient transports. This was a validation study using prehospital records in King County, Washington, and southwestern Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2006 and 2005 to 2011, respectively. Transport time estimates were generated using three methods: linear arc distance, Google Maps, and ArcGIS Network Analyst. Estimation error, defined as the absolute difference between observed and estimated transport time, was assessed, as well as the proportion of estimated times that were within specified error thresholds. Based on the primary results, a regression estimate was used that incorporated population density, time of day, and season to assess improved accuracy. Finally, hospital catchment areas were compared using each method with a fixed drive time. The authors analyzed 29,935 prehospital transports to 44 hospitals. The mean (± standard deviation [±SD]) absolute error was 4.8 (±7.3) minutes using linear arc, 3.5 (±5.4) minutes using Google Maps, and 4.4 (±5.7) minutes using ArcGIS. All pairwise comparisons were statistically significant (p Google Maps, and 11.6 [±10.9] minutes for ArcGIS). Estimates were within 5 minutes of observed transport time for 79% of linear arc estimates, 86.6% of Google Maps estimates, and 81.3% of ArcGIS estimates. The regression-based approach did not substantially improve estimation. There were large differences in hospital catchment areas estimated by each method. Route-based transport time estimates demonstrate moderate accuracy. These methods can be valuable for informing a host of decisions related to the system organization and patient access to emergency medical care; however, they should be employed with sensitivity to their limitations.

  20. Accurate estimation of indoor travel times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prentow, Thor Siiger; Blunck, Henrik; Stisen, Allan

    2014-01-01

    The ability to accurately estimate indoor travel times is crucial for enabling improvements within application areas such as indoor navigation, logistics for mobile workers, and facility management. In this paper, we study the challenges inherent in indoor travel time estimation, and we propose...... the InTraTime method for accurately estimating indoor travel times via mining of historical and real-time indoor position traces. The method learns during operation both travel routes, travel times and their respective likelihood---both for routes traveled as well as for sub-routes thereof. InTraTime...... allows to specify temporal and other query parameters, such as time-of-day, day-of-week or the identity of the traveling individual. As input the method is designed to take generic position traces and is thus interoperable with a variety of indoor positioning systems. The method's advantages include...

  1. Estimates of diet selection in cattle grazing cornstalk residues by measurement of chemical composition and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy of diet samples collected by ruminal evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzel, Emily A; Smart, Alexander J; St-Pierre, Benoit; Selman, Susan L; Bailey, Eric A; Beck, Erin E; Walker, Julie A; Wright, Cody L; Held, Jeffrey E; Brake, Derek W

    2018-05-04

    Six ruminally cannulated cows (570 ± 73 kg) fed corn residues were placed in a 6 × 6 Latin square to evaluate predictions of diet composition from ruminally collected diet samples. After complete ruminal evacuation, cows were fed 1-kg meals (dry matter [DM]-basis) containing different combinations of cornstalk and leaf and husk (LH) residues in ratios of 0:100, 20:80, 40:60, 60:40, 80:20, and 100:0. Diet samples from each meal were collected by removal of ruminal contents after 1-h and were either unrinsed, hand-rinsed or machine-rinsed to evaluate effects of endogenous compounds on predictions of diet composition. Diet samples were analyzed for neutral (NDF) and acid (ADF) detergent fiber, acid detergent insoluble ash (ADIA), acid detergent lignin (ADL), crude protein (CP), and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) to calculate diet composition. Rinsing type increased NDF and ADF content and decreased ADIA and CP content of diet samples (P content of diet samples. Differences in concentration between cornstalk and LH residues within each chemical component were standardized by calculating a coefficient of variation (CV). Accuracy and precision of estimates of diet composition were analyzed by regressing predicted diet composition and known diet composition. Predictions of diet composition were improved by increasing differences in concentration of chemical components between cornstalk and LH residues up to a CV of 22.6 ± 5.4%. Predictions of diet composition from unrinsed ADIA and machine-rinsed NIRS had the greatest accuracy (slope = 0.98 and 0.95, respectively) and large coefficients of determination (r2 = 0.86 and 0.74, respectively). Subsequently, a field study (Exp. 2) was performed to evaluate predictions of diet composition in cattle (646 ± 89 kg) grazing corn residue. Five cows were placed in 1 of 10 paddocks and allowed to graze continuously or to strip-graze corn residues. Predictions of diet composition from ADIA, ADL, and NIRS did not

  2. Time Estimation Deficits in Childhood Mathematics Difficulties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurks, Petra P. M.; van Loosbroek, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Time perception has not been comprehensively examined in mathematics difficulties (MD). Therefore, verbal time estimation, production, and reproduction were tested in 13 individuals with MD and 16 healthy controls, matched for age, sex, and intellectual skills. Individuals with MD performed comparably to controls in time reproduction, but showed a…

  3. Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.

  4. estimating formwork striking time for concrete mixes estimating

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    In this study, we estimated the time for strength development in concrete cured up to 56 days. Water. In this .... regression analysis using MS Excel 2016 Software performed on the ..... [1] Abolfazl, K. R, Peroti S. and Rahemi L 'The Effect of.

  5. Highway travel time estimation with data fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Soriguera Martí, Francesc

    2016-01-01

    This monograph presents a simple, innovative approach for the measurement and short-term prediction of highway travel times based on the fusion of inductive loop detector and toll ticket data. The methodology is generic and not technologically captive, allowing it to be easily generalized for other equivalent types of data. The book shows how Bayesian analysis can be used to obtain fused estimates that are more reliable than the original inputs, overcoming some of the drawbacks of travel-time estimations based on unique data sources. The developed methodology adds value and obtains the maximum (in terms of travel time estimation) from the available data, without recurrent and costly requirements for additional data. The application of the algorithms to empirical testing in the AP-7 toll highway in Barcelona proves that it is possible to develop an accurate real-time, travel-time information system on closed-toll highways with the existing surveillance equipment, suggesting that highway operators might provide...

  6. Time Delay Estimation Algoritms for Echo Cancellation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirill Sakhnov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The following case study describes how to eliminate echo in a VoIP network using delay estimation algorithms. It is known that echo with long transmission delays becomes more noticeable to users. Thus, time delay estimation, as a part of echo cancellation, is an important topic during transmission of voice signals over packetswitching telecommunication systems. An echo delay problem associated with IP-based transport networks is discussed in the following text. The paper introduces the comparative study of time delay estimation algorithm, used for estimation of the true time delay between two speech signals. Experimental results of MATLab simulations that describe the performance of several methods based on cross-correlation, normalized crosscorrelation and generalized cross-correlation are also presented in the paper.

  7. Experimental study on occupant evacuation in narrow seat aisle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shenshi; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Li, Changhai; Guo, Yafei

    2018-07-01

    Narrow seat aisle is an important area in the train car interior due to the large passenger population, however evacuation therein has not gained enough concerns. In this experimental study, the occupant evacuation of the narrow seat aisle area is investigated, with the aisle width of 0.4-0.6 m and the evacuation direction of forward and backward. The evacuation behaviors are analyzed based on the video record, and the discussion is carried out in the aspect of evacuation time, crowdedness, evacuation order, and aisle conflicts. The result shows that with the increasing aisle width, total evacuation time and the average specific evacuation rate decrease. The aisle is crowded for some time, with a large linear occupant densities. The evacuation order of each occupant is mainly related to the seat position. Moreover, it is found that the aisle conflicts can be well described by Burstedde's model. This study gives a useful benchmark for evacuation simulation of narrow seat aisle, and provides reference to safety design of seat area in train cars.

  8. Evacuation exercise at the Kindergarten

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector.  The fire brigade checked t...

  9. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  10. Dual effects of guide-based guidance on pedestrian evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail: yima23-c@my.cityu.edu.hk; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng

    2017-06-15

    This study investigates the effects of guide-based guidance on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility via the simulations based on an extended social force model. The results show that the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual, and related to the neighbor density within the visual field. On the one hand, in many cases, the effects of guides are positive, particularly when the neighbor density within the visual field is moderate; in this case, a few guides can already assist the evacuation effectively and efficiently. However, when the neighbor density within the visual field is particularly small or large, the effects of guides may be adverse and make the evacuation time longer. Our results not only provide a new insight into the effects of guides on the pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility, but also give some practical suggestions as to how to assign guides to assist the evacuation under different evacuation conditions. - Highlights: • Extended social force model is used to simulate guided pedestrian evacuation. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are dual. • Effects of guides on pedestrian evacuation under limited visibility are related to neighbor density within visual field.

  11. Evacuating populations with special needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  12. Evacuation drill at CMS

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont-Sagorin and Christoph Schaefer

    2012-01-01

    Training personnel, including evacuation guides and shifters, checking procedures, improving collaboration with the CERN Fire Brigade: the first real-life evacuation drill at CMS took place on Friday 3 February from 12p.m. to 3p.m. in the two caverns located at Point 5 of the LHC.   CERN personnel during the evacuation drill at CMS. Evacuation drills are required by law and have to be organized periodically in all areas of CERN, both above and below ground. The last drill at CMS, which took place in June 2007, revealed some desiderata, most notably the need for a public address system. With this equipment in place, it is now possible to broadcast audio messages from the CMS control room to the underground areas.   The CMS Technical Coordination Team and the GLIMOS have focused particularly on preparing collaborators for emergency situations by providing training and organizing regular safety drills with the HSE Unit and the CERN Fire Brigade. This Friday, the practical traini...

  13. Maximum likelihood window for time delay estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Young Sup; Yoon, Dong Jin; Kim, Chi Yup

    2004-01-01

    Time delay estimation for the detection of leak location in underground pipelines is critically important. Because the exact leak location depends upon the precision of the time delay between sensor signals due to leak noise and the speed of elastic waves, the research on the estimation of time delay has been one of the key issues in leak lovating with the time arrival difference method. In this study, an optimal Maximum Likelihood window is considered to obtain a better estimation of the time delay. This method has been proved in experiments, which can provide much clearer and more precise peaks in cross-correlation functions of leak signals. The leak location error has been less than 1 % of the distance between sensors, for example the error was not greater than 3 m for 300 m long underground pipelines. Apart from the experiment, an intensive theoretical analysis in terms of signal processing has been described. The improved leak locating with the suggested method is due to the windowing effect in frequency domain, which offers a weighting in significant frequencies.

  14. Evacuation routes performances and fire safety of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laban Mirjana Đ.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residential buildings, public and business facilities with large number of occupants are particularly exposed to the risk of event with catastrophic consequences, especially in case of fire. Evacuation routes must be separated fire compartments with surfaces made of non-combustible materials. Safe evacuation of building occupants in case of fire is a crucial requirement for the preservation of human life in building. In our engineering practice, calculation model is usually applied in order to determine the time required for evacuation (SRPS TP 21. However, evacuation simulation models are more present in research papers, contributing to better assessment of flow of evacuation in the real time. These models could provide an efficient way of testing the safety of a building in the face of fire and indicate critical points at the evacuation paths. Computer models enable the development and analysis of multiple various scenarios during a fire event, contributing to defining the measures for improving the safety of the building in case of fire. This paper analyses the fulfilment of technical requirements for the safe evacuation and proposes improvement measures based on a comparative analysis of the time required for occupants' evacuation from the building (Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy in Novi Sad, obtained by calculation model and by using evacuation simulation software.

  15. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  16. Behavior-based evacuation planning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel; Amato, Nancy M

    2010-01-01

    In this work, we present a formulation of an evacuation planning problem that is inspired by motion planning and describe an integrated behavioral agent-based and roadmap-based motion planning approach to solve it. Our formulation allows users to test the effect on evacuation of a number of different environmental factors. One of our main focuses is to provide a mechanism to investigate how the interaction between agents influences the resulting evacuation plans. Specifically, we explore how various types of control provided by a set of directing agents effects the overall evacuation planning strategies of the evacuating agents. ©2010 IEEE.

  17. The effects of meal size, body size and temperature on gastric evacuation in pikeperch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koed, Anders

    2001-01-01

    Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change of estim...

  18. Study on rapid evacuation in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available More and more high rising buildings emerged in modern cities, but emergency evacuation of tall buildings has been a worldwide difficult problem. In this paper, a new evacuation device for high rising buildings in fire accident was proposed and studied. This device mainly consisted of special spiral slideway and shunt valve. People in this device could fast slide down to the first floor under gravity without any electric power and physical strength, which is suitable for various emergency evacuation including mobility-impaired persons. The plane simulation test has shown that human being in alternative clockwise and counterclockwise movement will not become dizzy. The evacuated people should wear protection pad, which can prevent slider from being injured by surface friction with the slide, and eliminate the friction coefficient difference caused by different clothes and slide surface. The calculation results show that the evacuation speed of the new device is much faster than traditional staircases. Moreover, such new evacuation device can also be used as a means of vertical transportation in high-rise buildings partly. People can take it from any floor to ground floor directly, which not only save time for waiting for the lifts but also save the power. The new evacuation system is of simple structure, easy to use, and suitable for evacuation and partly used as vertical downwards traffic, which shows light on solving world-wide difficulties on fast evacuation in high-rise buildings.

  19. Modelling gastric evacuation without meal size as a variable. A model applicable for the estimation of daily ration of cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Temming, Axel; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1994-01-01

    S=stomach content, T=time after ingestion, R and B=constants. This model allows for various curve shapes, including linear (B=O) and exponential (B=1), and the curve shape (B) was estimated from the data. Meal size was included in the model by modifying the constant R=R′ × MD, with M=meal size...... in weight and D=constant. When meal size was included in the model, the resulting B values were strongly dependent on the food type and the estimated D values were negatively correlated with B: capelin, B=1.37, D= -1.16; herring, B=0.84, D= -0.57; and prawn, B=0.35, D= -0.14. When meal size was excluded...

  20. REAL TIME SPEED ESTIMATION FROM MONOCULAR VIDEO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Temiz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, detailed studies have been performed for developing a real time system to be used for surveillance of the traffic flow by using monocular video cameras to find speeds of the vehicles for secure travelling are presented. We assume that the studied road segment is planar and straight, the camera is tilted downward a bridge and the length of one line segment in the image is known. In order to estimate the speed of a moving vehicle from a video camera, rectification of video images is performed to eliminate the perspective effects and then the interest region namely the ROI is determined for tracking the vehicles. Velocity vectors of a sufficient number of reference points are identified on the image of the vehicle from each video frame. For this purpose sufficient number of points from the vehicle is selected, and these points must be accurately tracked on at least two successive video frames. In the second step, by using the displacement vectors of the tracked points and passed time, the velocity vectors of those points are computed. Computed velocity vectors are defined in the video image coordinate system and displacement vectors are measured by the means of pixel units. Then the magnitudes of the computed vectors in the image space are transformed to the object space to find the absolute values of these magnitudes. The accuracy of the estimated speed is approximately ±1 – 2 km/h. In order to solve the real time speed estimation problem, the authors have written a software system in C++ programming language. This software system has been used for all of the computations and test applications.

  1. Estimation of gastric emptying time (GET) in clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) using X-radiography technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ling, Khoo Mei; Ghaffar, Mazlan Abd. [School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-09-03

    This study examines the movement of food item and the estimation of gastric emptying time using the X-radiography techniques, in the clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) fed in captivity. Fishes were voluntarily fed to satiation after being deprived of food for 72 hours, using pellets that were tampered with barium sulphate (BaSO{sub 4}). The movement of food item was monitored over different time of feeding. As a result, a total of 36 hours were needed for the food items to be evacuated completely from the stomach. Results on the modeling of meal satiation were also discussed. The size of satiation meal to body weight relationship was allometric, with the power value equal to 1.28.

  2. Integrating supply and demand aspects of transportation for mass evacuation under disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This study seeks to address real-time operational needs in the context of the evacuation response problem by providing a capability to dynamically route vehicles under evacuation, thereby being responsive to the actual conditions unfolding in real-ti...

  3. Travel Time Estimation on Urban Street Segment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Kajalić

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Level of service (LOS is used as the main indicator of transport quality on urban roads and it is estimated based on the travel speed. The main objective of this study is to determine which of the existing models for travel speed calculation is most suitable for local conditions. The study uses actual data gathered in travel time survey on urban streets, recorded by applying second by second GPS data. The survey is limited to traffic flow in saturated conditions. The RMSE method (Root Mean Square Error is used for research results comparison with relevant models: Akcelik, HCM (Highway Capacity Manual, Singapore model and modified BPR (the Bureau of Public Roads function (Dowling - Skabardonis. The lowest deviation in local conditions for urban streets with standardized intersection distance (400-500 m is demonstrated by Akcelik model. However, for streets with lower signal density (<1 signal/km the correlation between speed and degree of saturation is best presented by HCM and Singapore model. According to test results, Akcelik model was adopted for travel speed estimation which can be the basis for determining the level of service in urban streets with standardized intersection distance and coordinated signal timing under local conditions.

  4. Evacuation of the NET vacuum chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    Parametric calculations of the evacuation process were carried out for the NET-vacuum chamber involving two blanket designs. The results show that with an acceptable vacuum pumping capacity the required start vacuum conditions can be realized within reasonable time. The two blanket concepts do not differ remarkably in their evacuation behaviour. The remaining large pressure differences between the different locations of the vacuum chamber can be reduced if approximately 30% of the total gas flow is extracted from the heads of the blanket replacement ports

  5. Evacuation of the NET vacuum chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, R.

    1986-01-01

    Parametric calculations of the evacuation process were carried out for the NET-vacuum chamber involving two blanket designs. The results show that with an acceptable vacuum pumping capacity the required start vacuum conditions can be realized within reasonable time. The two blanket concepts do not differ remarkably in their evacuation behaviour. The remaining large pressure differences between the different locations of the vacuum chamber can be reduced if approximately 30% of the total gas flow is extracted from the heads of the blanket replacement ports. (author)

  6. Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars

    2015-01-01

    The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

  7. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

    2017-08-01

    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  8. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  9. Intrarectal pressures and balloon expulsion related to evacuation proctography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halligan, S; Thomas, J; Bartram, C

    1995-01-01

    Seventy four patients with constipation were examined by standard evacuation proctography and then attempted to expel a small, non-deformable rectal balloon, connected to a pressure transducer to measure intrarectal pressure. Simultaneous imaging related the intrarectal position of the balloon to rectal deformity. Inability to expel the balloon was associated proctographically with prolonged evacuation, incomplete evacuation, reduced anal canal diameter, and acute anorectal angulation during evacuation. The presence and size of rectocoele or intussusception was unrelated to voiding of paste or balloon. An independent linear combination of pelvic floor descent and evacuation time on proctography correctly predicted maximum intrarectal pressure in 74% of cases. No patient with both prolonged evacuation and reduced pelvic floor descent on proctography could void the balloon, as maximum intrarectal pressure was reduced in this group. A prolonged evacuation time on proctography, in combination with reduced pelvic floor descent, suggests defecatory disorder may be caused by inability to raise intrarectal pressure. A diagnosis of anismus should not be made on proctography solely on the basis of incomplete/prolonged evacuation, as this may simply reflect inadequate straining. PMID:7672656

  10. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

    2014-01-01

    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  11. Effect of form of obstacle on speed of crowd evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Ryosuke

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the form of an obstacle on the time that a crowd takes to evacuate a room, using a toy model. Pedestrians are modeled as active soft matter moving toward a point with intended velocities. An obstacle is placed in front of the exit, and it has one of four shapes: a cylindrical column, a triangular prism, a quadratic prism, or a diamond prism. Numerical results indicate that the evacuation-completion time depends on the shape of the obstacle. Obstacles with a circular cylinder (C.C.) shape yield the shortest evacuation-completion time in the proposed model.

  12. Getting passengers out : evacuation behaviours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, L.C.

    2003-01-01

    When disaster strikes, mass transportation means mass evacuation. The issue is especially urgent if, despite precautions, a train comes to a stop in a tunnel and there is a fire. Adequate behaviour of passengers is a major success factor of an evacuation. Passengers should replace their original

  13. Prototype Tsunami Evacuation Park in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, B. E.; Cedillos, V.; Deierlein, G.; Di Mauro, M.; Kornberg, K.

    2012-12-01

    Padang, Indonesia, a city of some 900,000 people, half of whom live close to the coast and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the highest tsunami risks in the world due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and dense population. There is a high probability that a tsunami will strike the shores of Padang, flooding half of the area of the city, within the next 30 years. If that tsunami occurred today, it is estimated that several hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the ~30 minute interval between the earthquake's occurrence and the tsunami's arrival. Padang's needs have been amply demonstrated: after earthquakes in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012, citizens, thinking that those earthquakes might cause a tsunami, tried to evacuate in cars and motorbikes, which created traffic jams, and most could not reach safe ground in 30 minutes. Since 2008, GeoHazards International (GHI) and Stanford University have studied a range of options for improving this situation, including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges and widened roads, and means of "vertical" evacuation in multi-story buildings, mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs proved most practical and cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. The Earth Observatory Singapore (EOS) developed an agent-based model that simulates pedestrian and vehicular evacuation to assess tsunami risk and risk reduction interventions in Southeast Asia. EOS applied this model to analyze the effectiveness in Padang of TEPs over other tsunami risk management approaches in terms of evacuation times and the number of people saved. The model shows that only ~24,000 people (20% of the total population) in the northern part of Padang can reach safe ground within 30 minutes, if people evacuate using cars and

  14. Advanced evacuated tube collectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertz, W. W.; Hull, J. R.; Winston, R.; Ogallagher, J.

    1985-04-01

    The essence of the design concept for these new collectors is the integration of moderate levels of nonimaging concentration inside the evacuated tube itself. This permanently protects the reflection surfaces and allows the use of highly reflecting front surface mirrors with reflectances greater than 95%. Previous fabrication and long term testing of a proof-of-concept prototype has established the technical success of the concept. Present work is directed toward the development of a manufacturable unit that will be suitable for the widest possible range of applications. Design alternatives include scaling up the original prototype's tube diameter from 5 cm to 10 cm, using an internal shaped metal concentrating reflector, using a variety of profile shapes to minimize so-called gap losses and accommodate both single ended and double-ended flow geometries, and allowing the use of heat pipes for the absorber tube.

  15. Evacuation modeling trends

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, Orlando; Alvear, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This book presents an overview of modeling definitions and concepts, theory on human behavior and human performance data, available tools and simulation approaches, model development, and application and validation methods. It considers the data and research efforts needed to develop and incorporate functions for the different parameters into comprehensive escape and evacuation simulations, with a number of examples illustrating different aspects and approaches. After an overview of basic modeling approaches, the book discusses benefits and challenges of current techniques. The representation of evacuees is a central issue, including human behavior and the proper implementation of representational tools. Key topics include the nature and importance of the different parameters involved in ASET and RSET and the interactions between them. A review of the current literature on verification and validation methods is provided, with a set of recommended verification tests and examples of validation tests. The book c...

  16. Using the Estimating Supplies Program to Develop Materiel Solutions for the U.S. Air Force Aeromedical Evacuation In-Flight Kit (FFQDM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hopkins, Curtis; Nix, Ralph; Pang, Gerry; Konoske, Paula

    2008-01-01

    ... NHRC's medical modeling tool the Estimating Supplies Program (ESP) for the development and management of Air Force medical Allowance Standards as a baseline for standardization throughout the services...

  17. Pedestrian collective motion in competitive room evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcimartín, A; Pastor, J M; Martín-Gómez, C; Parisi, D; Zuriguel, I

    2017-09-07

    When a sizable number of people evacuate a room, if the door is not large enough, an accumulation of pedestrians in front of the exit may take place. This is the cause of emerging collective phenomena where the density is believed to be the key variable determining the pedestrian dynamics. Here, we show that when sustained contact among the individuals exists, density is not enough to describe the evacuation, and propose that at least another variable -such as the kinetic stress- is required. We recorded evacuation drills with different degrees of competitiveness where the individuals are allowed to moderately push each other in their way out. We obtain the density, velocity and kinetic stress fields over time, showing that competitiveness strongly affects them and evidencing patterns which have been never observed in previous (low pressure) evacuation experiments. For the highest competitiveness scenario, we detect the development of sudden collective motions. These movements are related to a notable increase of the kinetic stress and a reduction of the velocity towards the door, but do not depend on the density.

  18. Covariance matrix estimation for stationary time series

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Han; Wu, Wei Biao

    2011-01-01

    We obtain a sharp convergence rate for banded covariance matrix estimates of stationary processes. A precise order of magnitude is derived for spectral radius of sample covariance matrices. We also consider a thresholded covariance matrix estimator that can better characterize sparsity if the true covariance matrix is sparse. As our main tool, we implement Toeplitz [Math. Ann. 70 (1911) 351–376] idea and relate eigenvalues of covariance matrices to the spectral densities or Fourier transforms...

  19. Coordination of IVI and transit signal priority on transit evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    During an emergency evacuation, execution time is always critical to the evacuees who are : transit dependent. Transit Signal Priority (TSP) can speed up the transit services by prioritizing : the approaching bus at a signalized intersection. With th...

  20. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

    2018-01-01

    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  1. Endoscopic burr hole evacuation of an acute subdural hematoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codd, Patrick J; Venteicher, Andrew S; Agarwalla, Pankaj K; Kahle, Kristopher T; Jho, David H

    2013-12-01

    Acute subdural hematoma evacuations frequently necessitate large craniotomies with extended operative times and high relative blood loss, which can lead to additional morbidity for the patient. While endoscopic minimally invasive approaches to chronic subdural collections have been successfully demonstrated, this technique has not previously been applied to acute subdural hematomas. The authors report their experience with an 87-year-old patient presenting with a large acute right-sided subdural hematoma successfully evacuated via an endoscopic minimally invasive technique. The operative approach is outlined, and the literature on endoscopic subdural collection evacuation reviewed. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. U.S. Air Force Operational Medicine: Using the Enterprise Estimating Supplies Program to Develop Materiel Solutions for the Aeromedical Evacuation In-Flight Kit (FFQDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-04

    HEMORRHAGE 1 533.10 ACUTE PEPTIC ULCER WITH PERFORATION 1 346.90 MIGRAINE UNPSECIFIED 1 410.90 ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION OF UNSPECIFIED SITE 1 451.90...Enterprise Estimating Supplies Program (EESP), for the development and management of Air Force medical Allowance Standards as a baseline for

  3. Chemical Agents: Facts about Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What CDC is Doing Blog: Public Health Matters Chemical Agents: Facts About Evacuation Format: Select One PDF [ ... on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Some kinds of chemical accidents or attacks, such as a train derailment ...

  4. System and method for traffic signal timing estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Dumazert, Julien; Claudel, Christian G.

    2015-01-01

    A method and system for estimating traffic signals. The method and system can include constructing trajectories of probe vehicles from GPS data emitted by the probe vehicles, estimating traffic signal cycles, combining the estimates, and computing the traffic signal timing by maximizing a scoring function based on the estimates. Estimating traffic signal cycles can be based on transition times of the probe vehicles starting after a traffic signal turns green.

  5. System and method for traffic signal timing estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Dumazert, Julien

    2015-12-30

    A method and system for estimating traffic signals. The method and system can include constructing trajectories of probe vehicles from GPS data emitted by the probe vehicles, estimating traffic signal cycles, combining the estimates, and computing the traffic signal timing by maximizing a scoring function based on the estimates. Estimating traffic signal cycles can be based on transition times of the probe vehicles starting after a traffic signal turns green.

  6. Building Evacuation with Mobile Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Merkel, Sabrina

    2014-01-01

    The rapidly growing world population and increasingly dense settlements demand ever-larger and more complex buildings from today's engineers. In comparison to this technological progress, a building's equipment for emergency evacuation has been hardly developed further. This work presents a concept for a building evacuation system based on mobile devices. Furthermore, various algorithms for route planning with mobile devices and for indoor localization of mobile devices are addressed.

  7. The TGT Estimation of the Social Behavior Characteristics for Permanent Resident around NPPs in KOREA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Sun-Young; Lee, Gab-Bock; Chung, Yang-Geun

    2006-01-01

    The most strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation when a great deal of radionuclide materials is released to environment. NRC(Nuclear Regulation Committee) made the evacuation time estimation to be necessary condition of emergency plan as the basis technology through the NUREG-0654 and has performed the research of the evacuation using traffic analysis continuously. In KOREA, The Notice 2004-11 of Ministry of Science and Technology nuclear enterprise must estimate evacuation time through the consultation with local autonomous entities and the result of the consultation must be appended in emergency plan. But evacuation estimation method in KOREA was based on simple assumption which did not consider evacuation characteristics and traffic analysis; therefore it could not reflect actual accident adequately. Besides technical aspect, the characteristics of personal and social behavior must be considered in evaluation of the evacuation time. These characteristics of behavior emerged in the research of natural and human disaster rather than nuclear accident which has little experience. So, the characteristics of personal and social behavior must be considered in evacuation time estimation

  8. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  9. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  10. Time-Distance Helioseismology: Noise Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gizon, L.; Birch, A. C.

    2004-10-01

    As in global helioseismology, the dominant source of noise in time-distance helioseismology measurements is realization noise due to the stochastic nature of the excitation mechanism of solar oscillations. Characterizing noise is important for the interpretation and inversion of time-distance measurements. In this paper we introduce a robust definition of travel time that can be applied to very noisy data. We then derive a simple model for the full covariance matrix of the travel-time measurements. This model depends only on the expectation value of the filtered power spectrum and assumes that solar oscillations are stationary and homogeneous on the solar surface. The validity of the model is confirmed through comparison with SOHO MDI measurements in a quiet-Sun region. We show that the correlation length of the noise in the travel times is about half the dominant wavelength of the filtered power spectrum. We also show that the signal-to-noise ratio in quiet-Sun travel-time maps increases roughly as the square root of the observation time and is at maximum for a distance near half the length scale of supergranulation.

  11. Multidimensional scaling of musical time estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocenas-Silva, Raquel; Bueno, José Lino Oliveira; Molin, Paul; Bigand, Emmanuel

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the psycho-musical factors that govern time evaluation in Western music from baroque, classic, romantic, and modern repertoires. The excerpts were previously found to represent variability in musical properties and to induce four main categories of emotions. 48 participants (musicians and nonmusicians) freely listened to 16 musical excerpts (lasting 20 sec. each) and grouped those that seemed to have the same duration. Then, participants associated each group of excerpts to one of a set of sine wave tones varying in duration from 16 to 24 sec. Multidimensional scaling analysis generated a two-dimensional solution for these time judgments. Musical excerpts with high arousal produced an overestimation of time, and affective valence had little influence on time perception. The duration was also overestimated when tempo and loudness were higher, and to a lesser extent, timbre density. In contrast, musical tension had little influence.

  12. Freeway travel-time estimation and forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    This project presents a microsimulation-based framework for generating short-term forecasts of travel time on freeway corridors. The microsimulation model that is developed (GTsim), replicates freeway capacity drop and relaxation phenomena critical f...

  13. Time estimation in mild Alzheimer's disease patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichelli Paolo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Time information processing relies on memory, which greatly supports the operations of hypothetical internal timekeepers. Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET postulates the existence of a memory component that is functionally separated from an internal clock and other processing stages. SET has devised several experimental procedures to map these cognitive stages onto cerebral regions and neurotransmitter systems. One of these, the time bisection procedure, has provided support for a dissociation between the clock stage, controlled by dopaminergic systems, and the memory stage, mainly supported by cholinergic neuronal networks. This study aimed at linking the specific memory processes predicted by SET to brain mechanisms, by submitting time bisection tasks to patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD, that are known to present substantial degeneration of the fronto-temporal regions underpinning memory. Methods Twelve mild AD patients were required to make temporal judgments about intervals either ranging from 100 to 600 ms (short time bisection task or from 1000 to 3000 ms (long time bisection task. Their performance was compared with that of a group of aged-matched control participants and a group of young control subjects. Results Long time bisection scores of AD patients were not significantly different from those of the two control groups. In contrast, AD patients showed increased variability (as indexed by increased WR values in timing millisecond durations and a generalized inconsistency of responses over the same interval in both the short and long bisection tasks. A similar, though milder, decreased millisecond interval sensitivity was found for elderly subjects. Conclusion The present results, that are consistent with those of previous timing studies in AD, are interpreted within the SET framework as not selectively dependent on working or reference memory disruptions but as possibly due to distortions in different

  14. The clock that times us : Electromagnetic signatures of time estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kononowicz, Tadeusz Władysław

    2015-01-01

    As time is a fundamental dimension of our existence, perceiving the flow of time is an ubiquitous experience of our everyday life. This so-called sense of time is utilized in our everyday activities, for example, when we expect some events to happen, but it also prevents us from taking a morning

  15. Algorithms for Brownian first-passage-time estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adib, Artur B.

    2009-09-01

    A class of algorithms in discrete space and continuous time for Brownian first-passage-time estimation is considered. A simple algorithm is derived that yields exact mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for linear potentials in one dimension, regardless of the lattice spacing. When applied to nonlinear potentials and/or higher spatial dimensions, numerical evidence suggests that this algorithm yields MFPT estimates that either outperform or rival Langevin-based (discrete time and continuous space) estimates.

  16. Freeway travel-time estimation and forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Real-time traffic information provided by GDOT has proven invaluable for commuters in the : Georgia freeway network. The increasing number of Variable Message Signs, addition of : services such as My-NaviGAtor, NaviGAtor-to-go etc. and the advancemen...

  17. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Markatos, Nikolaos C.

    2007-01-01

    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies

  18. Evacuation decision-making at three mile island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeigler, Donald. J.; Johnson, James. H.

    1987-01-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 provoked an unanticipated and unprecedented spontaneous evacuation of people living in the area. Following the accident, revised and upgraded emergency preparedness and response regulations were issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. (FEMA). This includes the assumption that public education and awareness will minimise the tendency of people to evacuate spontaneously from the vicinity of an accident. This assumption is challenged. Results of an empirical test of a casual model of emergency evacuation decision-making are given. This test was devised to aid understanding of the public behaviour at the time of the Three Mile Island incident. The emergency plans for the Sizewell-B reactor are subject to brief critical consideration. It is concluded that evacuation plans need to reflect people's natural inclinations to move away from a nuclear hazard. (UK)

  19. Empirical study on social groups in pedestrian evacuation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Krüchten, Cornelia; Schadschneider, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    Pedestrian crowds often include social groups, i.e. pedestrians that walk together because of social relationships. They show characteristic configurations and influence the dynamics of the entire crowd. In order to investigate the impact of social groups on evacuations we performed an empirical study with pupils. Several evacuation runs with groups of different sizes and different interactions were performed. New group parameters are introduced which allow to describe the dynamics of the groups and the configuration of the group members quantitatively. The analysis shows a possible decrease of evacuation times for large groups due to self-ordering effects. Social groups can be approximated as ellipses that orientate along their direction of motion. Furthermore, explicitly cooperative behaviour among group members leads to a stronger aggregation of group members and an intermittent way of evacuation.

  20. Estimating bus passenger waiting times from incomplete bus arrivals data

    OpenAIRE

    McLeod, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimating bus passenger waiting times at bus stops using incomplete bus arrivals data. This is of importance to bus operators and regulators as passenger waiting time is a key performance measure. Average waiting times are usually estimated from bus headways, that is, time gaps between buses. It is both time-consuming and expensive to measure bus arrival times manually so methods using automatic vehicle location systems are attractive; however, these syste...

  1. Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.

    We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...

  2. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  3. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  4. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E. [Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

    2012-05-22

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  5. Evacuation exercise at the CERN Kindergarten

    CERN Document Server

    2001-01-01

    Every year fire evacuation exercises are organized through out CERN and our facility's Kindergarten is no exception. Just a few weeks ago, a fire simulation was carried out in the Kindergarten kitchen facility using synthetic smoke. The purpose of the exercise was to teach staff to react in a disciplined and professional manner when in the presence of danger. The simulation is always carried out at a random time so as to ensure that people in the area under the test are not aware of the exercise. For the Kindergarten the exercise was held early in the school year so as to train those who are new to the establishment. The evacuation was a complete success and all went as it was supposed to. When the children and teachers smelt smoke they followed the prescribed evacuation routes and left the building immediately. Once outside the situation was revealed as an exercise and everyone went back to business as usual, everyone that is, except the fire brigade and fire inspector. The fire brigade checked that the buil...

  6. Inferring Saving in Training Time From Effect Size Estimates

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Burright, Burke

    2000-01-01

    .... Students' time saving represents a major potential benefit of using them. This paper fills a methodology gap in estimating the students' timesaving benefit of asynchronous training technologies...

  7. Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.

    2009-04-01

    By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios

  8. City evacuations an interdisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Binner, Jane; Branicki, Layla; Galla, Tobias; Jones, Nick; King, James; Kolokitha, Magdalini; Smyrnakis, Michalis

    2015-01-01

    Evacuating a city is a complex problem that involves issues of governance, preparedness education, warning, information sharing, population dynamics, resilience and recovery. As natural and anthropogenic threats to cities grow, it is an increasingly pressing problem for policy makers and practitioners.   The book is the result of a unique interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers in the physical and social sciences to consider how an interdisciplinary approach can help plan for large scale evacuations.  It draws on perspectives from physics, mathematics, organisation theory, economics, sociology and education.  Importantly it goes beyond disciplinary boundaries and considers how interdisciplinary methods are necessary to approach a complex problem involving human actors and increasingly complex communications and transportation infrastructures.   Using real world case studies and modelling the book considers new approaches to evacuation dynamics.  It addresses questions of complexity, not only ...

  9. Dose reduction in evacuation proctography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hare, C.; Halligan, S.; Bartram, C.I.; Gupta, R.; Walker, A.E.; Renfrew, I.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reduce the patient radiation dose from evacuation proctography. Ninety-eight consecutive adult patients referred for proctography to investigate difficult rectal evacuation were studied using a digital imaging system with either a standard digital program for barium examinations, a reduced dose digital program (both with and without additional copper filtration), or Video fluoroscopy. Dose-area products were recorded for each examination and the groups were compared. All four protocols produced technically acceptable examinations. The low-dose program with copper filtration (median dose 382 cGy cm 2 ) and Video fluoroscopy (median dose 705 cGy cm 2 ) were associated with significantly less dose than other groups (p < 0.0001). Patient dose during evacuation proctography can be reduced significantly without compromising the diagnostic quality of the examination. A digital program with added copper filtration conveyed the lowest dose. (orig.)

  10. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Yi, E-mail: yima23-c@my.cityu.edu.hk [School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu (China); Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong); Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit [Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong)

    2017-02-05

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic. - Highlights: • Pedestrian density inside buildings has dual effects on evacuation. • Increased pedestrian density has a negative effect in cases of increased visibility. • Increased pedestrian density has a positive effect in cases of decreased visibility.

  11. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic. - Highlights: • Pedestrian density inside buildings has dual effects on evacuation. • Increased pedestrian density has a negative effect in cases of increased visibility. • Increased pedestrian density has a positive effect in cases of decreased visibility.

  12. Multi-objective evacuation routing optimization for toxic cloud releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gai, Wen-mei; Deng, Yun-feng; Jiang, Zhong-an; Li, Jing; Du, Yan

    2017-01-01

    This paper develops a model for assessing the risks associated with the evacuation process in response to potential chemical accidents, based on which a multi-objective evacuation routing model for toxic cloud releases is proposed taking into account that the travel speed on each arc will be affected by disaster extension. The objectives of the evacuation routing model are to minimize travel time and individual evacuation risk along a path respectively. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed to solve the multi-objective evacuation routing model. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and algorithms presented in this paper. And, the methodology with appropriate modification is suitable for supporting decisions in assessing emergency route selection in other cases (fires, nuclear accidents). - Highlights: • A model for assessing and visualizing the risks is developed. • A multi-objective evacuation routing model is proposed for toxic cloud releases. • A modified Dijkstra algorithm is designed to obtain an solution of the model. • Two heuristic algorithms have been developed as the optimization tool.

  13. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urata, Junji; Pel, A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami

  14. Nonparametric volatility density estimation for discrete time models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Es, van Bert; Spreij, P.J.C.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2005-01-01

    We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier-type deconvolution kernel density estimator based on the logarithm of the squared process is proposed

  15. Spatial Analysis of Traffic and Routing Path Methods for Tsunami Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhrurrozi, A.; Sari, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Tsunami disaster occurred relatively very fast. Thus, it has a very large-scale impact on both non-material and material aspects. Community evacuation caused mass panic, crowds, and traffic congestion. A further research in spatial based modelling, traffic engineering and splitting zone evacuation simulation is very crucial as an effort to reduce higher losses. This topic covers some information from the previous research. Complex parameters include route selection, destination selection, the spontaneous timing of both the departure of the source and the arrival time to destination and other aspects of the result parameter in various methods. The simulation process and its results, traffic modelling, and routing analysis emphasized discussion which is the closest to real conditions in the tsunami evacuation process. The method that we should highlight is Clearance Time Estimate based on Location Priority in which the computation result is superior to others despite many drawbacks. The study is expected to have input to improve and invent a new method that will be a part of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction of tsunamis disaster.

  16. The Group Evacuation Behavior Based on Fire Effect in the Complicated Three-Dimensional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to effectively depict the group evacuation behavior in the complicated three-dimensional space, a novel pedestrian flow model is proposed with three-dimensional cellular automata. In this model the calculation methods of floor field and fire gain are elaborated at first, and the transition gain of target position at the next moment is defined. Then, in consideration of pedestrian intimacy and velocity change, the group evacuation strategy and evolution rules are given. Finally, the experiments were conducted with the simulation platform to study the relationships of evacuation time, pedestrian density, average system velocity, and smoke spreading velocity. The results had shown that large-scale group evacuation should be avoided, and in case of large pedestrian density, the shortest route of evacuation strategy would extend system evacuation time.

  17. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  18. Evacuation transportation management : task five : operational concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-26

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  19. Evacuation transportation management. Task five, Operational concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

  20. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  1. A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daxin Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

  2. Hospital evacuation; planning, assessment, performance and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Nero C Wabo; P Örtenwall; A Khorram-Manesh

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Malfunction in hospitals' complex internal systems, or extern threats, may result in a hospital evacuation. Factors contributing to such evacuation must be identified, analyzed and action plans should be prepared. Our aims in this study were 1) to evaluate the use of risk and vulnerability analysis as a basis for hospital evacuation plan, 2) to identify risks/hazards triggering an evacuation and evaluate the respond needed and 3) to propose a template with main key points for plann...

  3. Accuracy of Travel Time Estimation using Bluetooth Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Skoven Pedersen, Kristian; Tørholm Christensen, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Short-term travel time information plays a critical role in Advanced Traffic Information Systems (ATIS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS). In this context, the need for accurate and reliable travel time information sources is becoming increasingly important. Bluetooth Technology (BT......) has been used as a relatively new cost-effective source of travel time estimation. However, due to low sampling rate of BT compared to other sensor technologies, existence of outliers may significantly affect the accuracy and reliability of the travel time estimates obtained using BT. In this study......, the concept of outliers and corresponding impacts on travel time accuracy are discussed. Four different estimators named Min-BT, Max-BT, Med-BT and Avg-BT with different outlier detection logic are presented in this paper. These methods are used to estimate travel times using a BT derived dataset. In order...

  4. Fuzzy logic estimator of rotor time constant in induction motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alminoja, J. [Tampere University of Technology (Finland). Control Engineering Laboratory; Koivo, H. [Helsinki University of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). Control Engineering Laboratory

    1997-12-31

    Vector control of AC machines is a well-known and widely used technique in induction machine control. It offers an exact method for speed control of induction motors, but it is also sensitive to the changes in machine parameters. E.g. rotor time constant has a strong dependence on temperature. In this paper a fuzzy logic estimator is developed, with which the rotor time constant can be estimated when the machine has a load. It is more simple than the estimators proposed in the literature. The fuzzy estimator is tested by simulation when step-wise abrupt changes and slow drifting occurs. (orig.) 7 refs.

  5. Empirical Study of Travel Time Estimation and Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ruimin; Chai, Huajun; Tang, Jin

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the travel time distribution of different types of urban roads, the link and path average travel time, and variance estimation methods by analyzing the large-scale travel time dataset detected from automatic number plate readers installed throughout Beijing. The results show that the best-fitting travel time distribution for different road links in 15 min time intervals differs for different traffic congestion levels. The average travel time for all links on all days can b...

  6. Mode choice endogeneity in value of travel time estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard; Fosgerau, Mogens

    The current way to estimate value of travel time is to use a mode-specific sample and hence to estimate mode-specific value of travel times. This approach raises certain questions concerning how to generalise the values to a population. A problem would be if there is an uncontrolled sample...... selection mechanism. This is the case if there is correlation between mode choice and the value of travel time that is not controlled for by explanatory variables. What could confuse the estimated values is the difficulty to separate mode effects from user effect. An example would be the effect of income...... of travel time we use a stated choice dataset. These data include binary choice within mode for car and bus. The first approach is to use a probit model to model mode choice using instruments and then use this in the estimation of the value of travel time. The second approach is based on the use of a very...

  7. Evacuation and assembly of aerogel glazings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Ingerslev

    1999-01-01

    The application of monolithic silica aerogel as transparent insulation material for windows has been investigated for some years. It has been realised that a major problem of an industrial production of aerogel glazings will be the time for evacuation of the aerogel material. However, in a previous...... process, it can be considered as semi-online, and especially the capital cost is significantly lower for this method in comparison with a true online process. So hereby, a major obstacle is overcome with respect to a first industrial production of aerogel glazings.The apparatus has been constructed...

  8. Real-Time Head Pose Estimation on Mobile Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfeng Ren

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Many computer vision applications such as augmented reality require head pose estimation. As far as the real-time implementation of head pose estimation on relatively resource limited mobile platforms is concerned, it is required to satisfy real-time constraints while maintaining reasonable head pose estimation accuracy. The introduced head pose estimation approach in this paper is an attempt to meet this objective. The approach consists of the following components: Viola-Jones face detection, color-based face tracking using an online calibration procedure, and head pose estimation using Hu moment features and Fisher linear discriminant. Experimental results running on an actual mobile device are reported exhibiting both the real- time and accuracy aspects of the developed approach.

  9. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  10. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

  11. Estimating Time-to-Collision with Retinitis Pigmentosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tim

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the ability of observers who are sighted and those with low vision to make time-to-collision (TTC) estimations using video. The TTC estimations made by the observers with low vision were comparable to those made by the sighted observers, and both groups made underestimation errors that were similar to those that were…

  12. Time Skew Estimator for Dual-Polarization QAM Transmitters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medeiros Diniz, Júlio César; Da Ros, Francesco; Jones, Rasmus Thomas

    2017-01-01

    A simple method for joint estimation of transmitter’s in-phase/quadrature and inter-polarization time skew is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The method is based on clock tone extraction of a photodetected signal and genetic algorithm. The maximum estimation error was 0.5 ps....

  13. SU-E-T-95: Delivery Time Estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantor, M; Balter, P; Ohrt, J

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The development and testing of a tool for the inclusion of delivery time as a parameter in plan optimization. Methods: We developed an algorithm that estimates the time required for the machine and personnel movements required to deliver a treatment plan on a linear accelerator. We included dose rate, leaf motion, collimator motion, gantry motion, and couch motions (including time to enter the room to rotate the couch safely). Vault-specific parameters to account for time to enter and perform couch angle adjustments were also included. This algorithm works for static, step and shoot IMRT, and VMAT beams photon beams and for fixed electron beams. This was implemented as a script in our treatment planning system. We validated the estimator against actual recorded delivery time from our R and V system as well as recorded times from our IMRT QA delivery. Results: Data was collected (Figure 1) for 12 treatment plans by examining the R and V beam start times, and by manually timing the QA treatment for a reference, but the QA measurements were only significant to the nearest minute. The average difference between the estimated and R and V times was 15%, and 11% when excluding the major outliers. Outliers arose due to respiratory aides and gating techniques which could not be accounted for in the estimator. Conclusion: Non-mechanical factors such as the time a therapist needs to walk in and out of the room to adjust the couch needed to be fine-tuned and cycled back into the algorithm to improve the estimate. The algorithm has been demonstrated to provide reasonable and useful estimates for delivery time. This estimate has provided a useful additional input for clinical decision-making when comparing several potential radiation treatment options

  14. Estimating spatial travel times using automatic vehicle identification data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    Prepared ca. 2001. The paper describes an algorithm that was developed for estimating reliable and accurate average roadway link travel times using Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) data. The algorithm presented is unique in two aspects. First, ...

  15. Optimal nonimaging integrated evacuated solar collector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, John D.; Duff, W. S.; O'Gallagher, Joseph J.; Winston, Roland

    1993-11-01

    A non imaging integrated evacuated solar collector for solar thermal energy collection is discussed which has the lower portion of the tubular glass vacuum enveloped shaped and inside surface mirrored to optimally concentrate sunlight onto an absorber tube in the vacuum. This design uses vacuum to eliminate heat loss from the absorber surface by conduction and convection of air, soda lime glass for the vacuum envelope material to lower cost, optimal non imaging concentration integrated with the glass vacuum envelope to lower cost and improve solar energy collection, and a selective absorber for the absorbing surface which has high absorptance and low emittance to lower heat loss by radiation and improve energy collection efficiency. This leads to a very low heat loss collector with high optical collection efficiency, which can operate at temperatures up to the order of 250 degree(s)C with good efficiency while being lower in cost than current evacuated solar collectors. Cost estimates are presented which indicate a cost for this solar collector system which can be competitive with the cost of fossil fuel heat energy sources when the collector system is produced in sufficient volume. Non imaging concentration, which reduces cost while improving performance, and which allows efficient solar energy collection without tracking the sun, is a key element in this solar collector design.

  16. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2005

    CERN Document Server

    Gattermann, Peter; Knoflacher, Hermann; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Due to an increasing number of reported catastrophes all over the world, the safety especially of pedestrians today, is a dramatically growing field of interest, both for practitioners as well as scientists from various disciplines. The questions arising mainly address the dynamics of evacuating people and possible optimisations of the process by changing the architecture and /or the procedure. This concerns not only the case of ships, stadiums or buildings, all with restricted geometries, but also the evacuation of complete geographical regions due to natural disasters. Furthermore, also ‘simple’ crowd motion in ‘relaxed’ situations poses new questions with respect to higher comfort and efficiency since the number of involved persons at large events is as high as never before. In addition, as a new research topic in this field, collective animal behaviour is attracting increasing attention. All this was in the scope of the conference held in Vienna, September 28–30, 2005, the third one in a series ...

  17. Limitations of the time slide method of background estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis

    2010-01-01

    Time shifting the output of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way of estimating the background in a search for short-duration signals. In this paper, we show how non-stationary data affect the background estimation precision. We present a method of measuring the fluctuations of the data and computing its effects on a coincident search. In particular, we show that for fluctuations of moderate amplitude, time slides larger than the fluctuation time scales can be used. We also recall how the false alarm variance saturates with the number of time shifts.

  18. Limitations of the time slide method of background estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis, E-mail: mwas@lal.in2p3.f [LAL, Universite Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France)

    2010-10-07

    Time shifting the output of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way of estimating the background in a search for short-duration signals. In this paper, we show how non-stationary data affect the background estimation precision. We present a method of measuring the fluctuations of the data and computing its effects on a coincident search. In particular, we show that for fluctuations of moderate amplitude, time slides larger than the fluctuation time scales can be used. We also recall how the false alarm variance saturates with the number of time shifts.

  19. Evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, C.; Sørensen, J.G.; Dederichs, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    An understanding of human evacuation dynamics and performance are important when designing complex buildings such as bridges and when applying performance-based codes in order to reduce the risk of exposing occupants to critical conditions in case of fire. The majority of previous studies deal....... The discussion of "equal access" is only followed slowly by the demand on "equal egress". However, the passengers on trains on bridges are rarely homogeneous mixture. At the same time equal egress is far from assured today. In this paper the evacuation of mixed populations from trains on bridges are considered....... The populations applied in the experiment are mixed according to a composition corresponding to the population of Denmark. The study has the following findings: the total evacuation times increase with a factor 1.5 when accounting for a mixed population comprehending a variety of age and impairments. The seating...

  20. Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Schenk

    Full Text Available Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

  1. Influences of potential predictor variables on gastric evacuation in Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. feeding on fish prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2012-01-01

    of photoperiod and pre-experimental treatment of prey were also tested. Freshly killed A. tobianus were evacuated from the stomach of G. morhua at a rate similar to the value estimated from conspecifics kept deep-frozen and subsequently thawed prior to the evacuation experiment. The evacuation rate in G. morhua...... exposed to continuous light did not differ from the rate obtained from fish maintained under a 12L:12D photoperiod. The evacuation rates estimated from the latter fish in the dark and light periods, respectively, were likewise similar. These results indicate that the resistance of prey to the digestive...

  2. Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jun, Hu [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Huijun, Sun, E-mail: hjsun1@bjtu.edu.cn [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Juan, Wei [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); Xiaodan, Chen [College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Lei, You [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China); College of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106 (China); Musong, Gu [Faculty of Computer Science, Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 (China)

    2014-10-24

    A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation. - Highlights: • A novel three-dimensional evacuation model was presented with stair factor. • The paired effect and variety velocities were considered in evacuation model. • The cellular automata model is improved by repulsive force.

  3. Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jun, Hu; Huijun, Sun; Juan, Wei; Xiaodan, Chen; Lei, You; Musong, Gu

    2014-01-01

    A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation. - Highlights: • A novel three-dimensional evacuation model was presented with stair factor. • The paired effect and variety velocities were considered in evacuation model. • The cellular automata model is improved by repulsive force

  4. A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Daniel B [ORNL; Payne, Patricia W [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools can quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.

  5. Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic.

  6. Multiple Estimation Architecture in Discrete-Time Adaptive Mixing Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Baldi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive mixing control (AMC is a recently developed control scheme for uncertain plants, where the control action coming from a bank of precomputed controller is mixed based on the parameter estimates generated by an on-line parameter estimator. Even if the stability of the control scheme, also in the presence of modeling errors and disturbances, has been shown analytically, its transient performance might be sensitive to the initial conditions of the parameter estimator. In particular, for some initial conditions, transient oscillations may not be acceptable in practical applications. In order to account for such a possible phenomenon and to improve the learning capability of the adaptive scheme, in this paper a new mixing architecture is developed, involving the use of parallel parameter estimators, or multi-estimators, each one working on a small subset of the uncertainty set. A supervisory logic, using performance signals based on the past and present estimation error, selects the parameter estimate to determine the mixing of the controllers. The stability and robustness properties of the resulting approach, referred to as multi-estimator adaptive mixing control (Multi-AMC, are analytically established. Besides, extensive simulations demonstrate that the scheme improves the transient performance of the original AMC with a single estimator. The control scheme and the analysis are carried out in a discrete-time framework, for easier implementation of the method in digital control.

  7. Joint Estimation and Decoding of Space-Time Trellis Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Jianqiu

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore the possibility of using an emerging tool in statistical signal processing, sequential importance sampling (SIS, for joint estimation and decoding of space-time trellis codes (STTC. First, we provide background on SIS, and then we discuss its application to space-time trellis code (STTC systems. It is shown through simulations that SIS is suitable for joint estimation and decoding of STTC with time-varying flat-fading channels when phase ambiguity is avoided. We used a design criterion for STTCs and temporally correlated channels that combats phase ambiguity without pilot signaling. We have shown by simulations that the design is valid.

  8. Time improvement of photoelectric effect calculation for absorbed dose estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massa, J M; Wainschenker, R S; Doorn, J H; Caselli, E E

    2007-01-01

    Ionizing radiation therapy is a very useful tool in cancer treatment. It is very important to determine absorbed dose in human tissue to accomplish an effective treatment. A mathematical model based on affected areas is the most suitable tool to estimate the absorbed dose. Lately, Monte Carlo based techniques have become the most reliable, but they are time expensive. Absorbed dose calculating programs using different strategies have to choose between estimation quality and calculating time. This paper describes an optimized method for the photoelectron polar angle calculation in photoelectric effect, which is significant to estimate deposited energy in human tissue. In the case studies, time cost reduction nearly reached 86%, meaning that the time needed to do the calculation is approximately 1/7 th of the non optimized approach. This has been done keeping precision invariant

  9. Reliability of Bluetooth Technology for Travel Time Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Olesen, Jonas Hammershøj; Krishnan, Rajesh

    2015-01-01

    . However, their corresponding impacts on accuracy and reliability of estimated travel time have not been evaluated. In this study, a controlled field experiment is conducted to collect both Bluetooth and GPS data for 1000 trips to be used as the basis for evaluation. Data obtained by GPS logger is used...... to calculate actual travel time, referred to as ground truth, and to geo-code the Bluetooth detection events. In this setting, reliability is defined as the percentage of devices captured per trip during the experiment. It is found that, on average, Bluetooth-enabled devices will be detected 80% of the time......-range antennae detect Bluetooth-enabled devices in a closer location to the sensor, thus providing a more accurate travel time estimate. However, the smaller the size of the detection zone, the lower the penetration rate, which could itself influence the accuracy of estimates. Therefore, there has to be a trade...

  10. Evacuation research: A reassessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.

    1992-11-01

    During the 1985 review of several plants technical specifications the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff found that the protection system designs of some plants did not provide as complete a degree of online (at power) protection system surveillance testing capability as other plants undergoing staff review and evaluation at that time. This raised questions about the online testability of protection systems and the possibility that some nuclear power plant designs may not provide for complete online testing of their protection systems. Therefore, Generic Safety Issue (GSI)-120, ``Online Testability of Protection Systems`` was initiated. Project scope was limited to the Engineered Safety Features (ESFs) instrumentation and control testing. The major issue of concern relative to the resolution of GSI-120 deals with those ESF systems/components that cannot be tested during power operation, as actuating these systems/components could result in unwanted plant transient or trip conditions. These systems/components are tested during shutdown conditions. This report provides analysis and evaluation findings based on the review of selected issues necessary for the resolution of GSI-120. It also provides recommendations to close out GSI-120 and that no new requirements be placed on licensees of commercial light water nuclear power plants.

  11. Evacuation research: A reassessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.

    1992-11-01

    During the 1985 review of several plants technical specifications the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff found that the protection system designs of some plants did not provide as complete a degree of online (at power) protection system surveillance testing capability as other plants undergoing staff review and evaluation at that time. This raised questions about the online testability of protection systems and the possibility that some nuclear power plant designs may not provide for complete online testing of their protection systems. Therefore, Generic Safety Issue (GSI)-120, Online Testability of Protection Systems'' was initiated. Project scope was limited to the Engineered Safety Features (ESFs) instrumentation and control testing. The major issue of concern relative to the resolution of GSI-120 deals with those ESF systems/components that cannot be tested during power operation, as actuating these systems/components could result in unwanted plant transient or trip conditions. These systems/components are tested during shutdown conditions. This report provides analysis and evaluation findings based on the review of selected issues necessary for the resolution of GSI-120. It also provides recommendations to close out GSI-120 and that no new requirements be placed on licensees of commercial light water nuclear power plants.

  12. Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

    2005-01-01

    The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

  13. Bilevel Traffic Evacuation Model and Algorithm Design for Large-Scale Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danwen Bao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a bilevel planning model with one master and multiple slaves to solve traffic evacuation problems. The minimum evacuation network saturation and shortest evacuation time are used as the objective functions for the upper- and lower-level models, respectively. The optimizing conditions of this model are also analyzed. An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO method is proposed by introducing an electromagnetism-like mechanism to solve the bilevel model and enhance its convergence efficiency. A case study is carried out using the Nanjing Olympic Sports Center. The results indicate that, for large-scale activities, the average evacuation time of the classic model is shorter but the road saturation distribution is more uneven. Thus, the overall evacuation efficiency of the network is not high. For induced emergencies, the evacuation time of the bilevel planning model is shortened. When the audience arrival rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the evacuation time is shortened from 22% to 35%, indicating that the optimization effect of the bilevel planning model is more effective compared to the classic model. Therefore, the model and algorithm presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the traffic-induced evacuation decision making of large-scale activities.

  14. Simulation of the shopping center 'Zona I' evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important and the most complex tasks in human protection and human safety in objects is the projecting of the object evacuation. There are many factors that could effect on the opportune living of object such as object assignment, arrangement of rooms, arrangement of furniture, arrangement of exits, occupant speed and many other that human lives and material properties depend on. This is very important for objects with great number of humans, such as high residential objects, shopping centers, schools, hospitals etc. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situations and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of the shopping center 'Zona I' in Niš.

  15. Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks

    KAUST Repository

    Çelebi, Hasari Burak

    2010-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.

  16. Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks

    KAUST Repository

    Ç elebi, Hasari Burak; Abdallah, Mohamed M.; Hussain, Syed Imtiaz; Qaraqe, Khalid A.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.

  17. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  18. Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

    2017-11-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  19. SCALING AN URBAN EMERGENCY EVACUATION FRAMEWORK: CHALLENGES AND PRACTICES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karthik, Rajasekar [ORNL; Lu, Wei [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operation purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban

  20. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  1. Pedestrian Dynamics Feedback Control of Crowd Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Kachroo, Pushkin P.E; Al-nasur, Sadeq J; Shende, Apoorva

    2008-01-01

    Effective evacuation of people from closed spaces is an extremely important topic, since it can save real lives in emergency situations that can be brought about by natural and human made disasters. Usually there are static maps posted at various places at buildings that illustrate routes that should be taken during emergencies. However, when disasters happen, some of these routes might not be valid because of structural problems due to the disaster itself and more importantly because of the distribution of congestion of people spread over the area. The average flow of traffic depends on the traffic density. Therefore, if all the people follow the same route, or follow a route without knowing the congestion situation, they can end up being part of the congestion which results in very low flow rate or worse a traffic jam. Hence it becomes extremely important to design evacuations that inform people how fast and in which direction to move based on real-time information obtained about the people distribution usi...

  2. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  3. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  4. Estimating anesthesia and surgical procedure times from medicare anesthesia claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silber, Jeffrey H; Rosenbaum, Paul R; Zhang, Xuemei; Even-Shoshan, Orit

    2007-02-01

    Procedure times are important variables that often are included in studies of quality and efficiency. However, due to the need for costly chart review, most studies are limited to single-institution analyses. In this article, the authors describe how well the anesthesia claim from Medicare can estimate chart times. The authors abstracted information on time of induction and entrance to the recovery room ("anesthesia chart time") from the charts of 1,931 patients who underwent general and orthopedic surgical procedures in Pennsylvania. The authors then merged the associated bills from claims data supplied from Medicare (Part B data) that included a variable denoting the time in minutes for the anesthesia service. The authors also investigated the time from incision to closure ("surgical chart time") on a subset of 1,888 patients. Anesthesia claim time from Medicare was highly predictive of anesthesia chart time (Kendall's rank correlation tau = 0.85, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 5.1 min) but somewhat less predictive of surgical chart time (Kendall's tau = 0.73, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 13.8 min). When predicting chart time from Medicare bills, variables reflecting procedure type, comorbidities, and hospital type did not significantly improve the prediction, suggesting that errors in predicting the chart time from the anesthesia bill time are not related to these factors; however, the individual hospital did have some influence on these estimates. Anesthesia chart time can be well estimated using Medicare claims, thereby facilitating studies with vastly larger sample sizes and much lower costs of data collection.

  5. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  6. External factors impacting hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: the role of situational awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    The 2005 Gulf Coast hurricane season was one of the most costly and deadly in US history. Hurricane Rita stressed hospitals and led to multiple, simultaneous evacuations. This study systematically identified community factors associated with patient movement out of seven hospitals evacuated during Hurricane Rita. This study represents the second of two systematic, observational, and retrospective investigations of seven acute care hospitals that reported off-site evacuations due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included decision makers that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). Investigators applied a standardized interview process designed to assess evacuation factors related to external situational awareness of community activities during facility evacuation due to hurricanes. The measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions within six sections of the survey instrument. Investigators identified two factors that significantly impacted hospital IMT decision making: (1) incident characteristics affecting a facility's internal resources and challenges; and (2) incident characteristics affecting a facility's external evacuation activities. This article summarizes the latter and reports the following critical decision making points: (1) Emergency Operations Plans (EOP) were activated an average of 85 hours (3 days, 13 hours) prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall; (2) the decision to evacuate the hospital was made an average of 30 hours (1 day, 6 hours) from activation of the EOP; and (3) the implementation of the evacuation process took an average of 22 hours. Coordination of patient evacuations was most complicated by transportation deficits (the most significant of the 11 identified problem areas) and a lack of situational awareness of community response activities. All evacuation activities and subsequent evacuation times were negatively impacted by an overall lack of understanding on the part of hospital staff and the IMT regarding how to

  7. War casualties: recent trends in evacuation, triage and the golden hour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safdar, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Prompt medical treatment and early evacuation is the goal of military medicine in the battlefield. 'Triage' is a process of sorting the casualties according to the severity of injury and the prioritization of treatment. In trauma management 'Golden Hour' is the first sixty minutes or so after injury; this emphasizes that the chances of the victim's survival are the greatest if definitive care is given as early as possible. Our evacuation protocols follow the triage but the time to treatment is beyond sixty minutes. Many Armies have developed evacuation systems which allow the casualty to be seen within this specified time. This has been achieved by streamlining the evacuation chain, extensive incorporation of air transport and training of paramedics in advanced life support measures. In line with the modern trends we need to modernize our own system of casualty evacuation and treatment. (author)

  8. Emergency evacuation models in subway service systems: An application on Izmir (Turkey subway system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökçe Baysal Türkölmez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Increasing population in crowded cities causes transportation problems. Public transportation is an effective solution for the crowded traffic. Subway is a fast and productive alternative for public transportation so it is a highly preferable choice in others. It is hard to evacuate people in subway station during a disaster in carriages, on subway line or in subway stations because subway systems are often located underground, a lot people use it at the same time and enter-exit gates are controlled by turnstiles. It is crucially important to know the evacuation time of people from subway. In this paper, Konak station, one of the most crowded stations of Izmir Subway System is analyzed by emergency evacuation models. The evacuation process is simulated by Simulex software. The emergency evacuation problem is modeled in three different scenarios. Solution offers are developed for them.

  9. Routes to effective evacuation planning primer series : evacuating populations with special needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  10. Smooth time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos

    2018-03-01

    The receiver operating characteristic curve is a popular graphical method often used to study the diagnostic capacity of continuous (bio)markers. When the considered outcome is a time-dependent variable, two main extensions have been proposed: the cumulative/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve and the incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve. In both cases, the main problem for developing appropriate estimators is the estimation of the joint distribution of the variables time-to-event and marker. As usual, different approximations lead to different estimators. In this article, the authors explore the use of a bivariate kernel density estimator which accounts for censored observations in the sample and produces smooth estimators of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. The performance of the resulting cumulative/dynamic and incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curves is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, the influence of the choice of the required smoothing parameters is explored. Finally, two real-applications are considered. An R package is also provided as a complement to this article.

  11. Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, Gregory D.; Bier, Vicki M.

    2015-01-01

    In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated. - Highlights: • Developed framework to compare nuclear power accident evacuation strategies. • Evacuation strategies were compared on basis of radiological and evacuation risk. • Current strategies are adequate for smaller scale nuclear power accidents. • New strategies reduced radiation exposure and evacuation size for larger accidents

  12. Injuries in air transport emergency evacuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-01

    Twelve air transport evacuations are reviewed. Injuries are discussed with emphasis on configurational and procedural contributing factors. Recommendations and information about possible methods of reducing injuries are provided.

  13. A Study on the Priority Selection of Sediment-related Desaster Evacuation Using Debris Flow Combination Degree of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, C.; Kang, M.; Seo, J.; Kim, D.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    As the mountainous urbanization has increased the concern about landslides in the living area, it is essential to develop the technology to minimize the damage through quick identification and sharing of the disaster occurrence information. In this study, to establish an effective system of alert evacuation that has influence on the residents, we used the debris flow combination degree of risk to predict the risk of the disaster and the level of damage and to select evacuation priorities. Based on the GIS information, the physical strength and social vulnerability were determined by following the debris flow combination of the risk formula. The results classify the physical strength hazard rating of the debris flow combination of the through the normalization process. Debris flow the estimated residential population included in the damage range of the damage prediction map is based on the area and the unit size data. Prediction of occupant formula was calculated by applying different weighting to the resident population and users, and the result was classified into 5 classes as the debris flow physical strength. The debris flow occurrence physical strength and social and psychological vulnerability were classified into the classifications to be reflected in the debris flow integrated risk map using the matrix technique. In addition, to supplement the risk of incorporation of debris flow, we added weight to disaster vulnerable facilities that require a lot of time and manpower to evacuate. The basic model of welfare facilities was supplemented by using basic data, population density, employment density and GDP. First, evacuate areas with high integrated degree of risk level, and evacuate with consideration of physical class differences if classification difficult because of the same or similar grade among the management areas. When the physical hazard class difference is similar, the population difference of the area including the welfare facility is considered

  14. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  15. Estimated time spent on preventive services by primary care physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradison Margaret

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Delivery of preventive health services in primary care is lacking. One of the main barriers is lack of time. We estimated the amount of time primary care physicians spend on important preventive health services. Methods We analyzed a large dataset of primary care (family and internal medicine visits using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (2001–4; analyses were conducted 2007–8. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the amount of time spent delivering each preventive service, controlling for demographic covariates. Results Preventive visits were longer than chronic care visits (M = 22.4, SD = 11.8, M = 18.9, SD = 9.2, respectively. New patients required more time from physicians. Services on which physicians spent relatively more time were prostate specific antigen (PSA, cholesterol, Papanicolaou (Pap smear, mammography, exercise counseling, and blood pressure. Physicians spent less time than recommended on two "A" rated ("good evidence" services, tobacco cessation and Pap smear (in preventive visits, and one "B" rated ("at least fair evidence" service, nutrition counseling. Physicians spent substantial time on two services that have an "I" rating ("inconclusive evidence of effectiveness", PSA and exercise counseling. Conclusion Even with limited time, physicians address many of the "A" rated services adequately. However, they may be spending less time than recommended for important services, especially smoking cessation, Pap smear, and nutrition counseling. Future research is needed to understand how physicians decide how to allocate their time to address preventive health.

  16. Time-Dependent Risk Estimation and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Stiphout, T.; Wiemer, S.; Marzocchi, W.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquakes strongly cluster in space and time. Consequently, the most dangerous time is right after a moderate earthquake has happened, because their is a ‘high' (i.e., 2-5 percent) probability that this event will be followed by a subsequent aftershock which happens to be as large or larger than the initiating event. The seismic hazard during this time-period exceeds the background probability significantly and by several orders of magnitude. Scientists have developed increasingly accurate forecast models that model this time-dependent hazard, and such models are currently being validated in prospective testing. However, this probabilistic information in the hazard space is difficult to digest for decision makers, the media and general public. Here, we introduce a possible bridge between seismology and decision makers (authorities, civil defense) by proposing a more objective way to estimate time-dependent risk assessment. Short Term Earthquake Risk assessment (STEER) combines aftershock hazard and loss assessments. We use site-specific information on site effects and building class distribution and combine this with existing loss models to compute site specific time-dependent risk curves (probability of exceedance for fatalities, injuries, damages etc). We show the effect of uncertainties in the different components using Monte Carlo Simulations of the input parameters. This time-dependent risk curves can act as a decision support. We extend the STEER approach by introducing a Cost-Benefit approach for certain mitigation actions after a medium-sized earthquake. Such Cost-Benefit approaches have been recently developed for volcanic risk assessment to rationalize precautionary evacuations in densely inhabitated areas threatened by volcanoes. Here we extend the concept to time-dependent probabilistic seismic risk assessment. For the Cost-Benefit analysis of mitigation actions we calculate the ratio between the cost for the mitigation actions and the cost of the

  17. Template-Based Estimation of Time-Varying Tempo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peeters Geoffroy

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel approach to automatic estimation of tempo over time. This method aims at detecting tempo at the tactus level for percussive and nonpercussive audio. The front-end of our system is based on a proposed reassigned spectral energy flux for the detection of musical events. The dominant periodicities of this flux are estimated by a proposed combination of discrete Fourier transform and frequency-mapped autocorrelation function. The most likely meter, beat, and tatum over time are then estimated jointly using proposed meter/beat subdivision templates and a Viterbi decoding algorithm. The performances of our system have been evaluated on four different test sets among which three were used during the ISMIR 2004 tempo induction contest. The performances obtained are close to the best results of this contest.

  18. Nonparametric autocovariance estimation from censored time series by Gaussian imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung Wook; Genton, Marc G; Ghosh, Sujit K

    2009-02-01

    One of the most frequently used methods to model the autocovariance function of a second-order stationary time series is to use the parametric framework of autoregressive and moving average models developed by Box and Jenkins. However, such parametric models, though very flexible, may not always be adequate to model autocovariance functions with sharp changes. Furthermore, if the data do not follow the parametric model and are censored at a certain value, the estimation results may not be reliable. We develop a Gaussian imputation method to estimate an autocovariance structure via nonparametric estimation of the autocovariance function in order to address both censoring and incorrect model specification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique in terms of bias and efficiency with simulations under various rates of censoring and underlying models. We describe its application to a time series of silicon concentrations in the Arctic.

  19. Routine ultrasound guided evacuation of first trimester missed abortion versus blind evacuation

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa Abdulla Elsayed

    2014-01-01

    Background: The clinical management of miscarriage has changed little over the years and many women undergo surgical uterine evacuation. Surgical evacuation of the uterine contents in missed abortion is a challenge to the obstetrician as it is done blindly. The current study recommends the use of ultrasound guided surgical evacuation. It serves two important advantages; the first is to complete evacuation without the need of additional step. The second is to protect against uterine perforatio...

  20. Time estimation in Parkinson's disease and degenerative cerebellar disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beudel, Martijin; Galama, Sjoukje; Leenders, Klaus L.; de Jong, Bauke M.

    2008-01-01

    With functional MRI, we recently identified fronto-cerebellar activations in predicting time to reach a target and basal ganglia activation in velocity estimation, that is, small interval assessment. We now tested these functions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and degenerative cerebellar

  1. On algebraic time-derivative estimation and deadbeat state reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reger, Johann; Jouffroy, Jerome

    2009-01-01

    This paper places into perspective the so-called algebraic time-derivative estimation method recently introduced by Fliess and co-authors with standard results from linear statespace theory for control systems. In particular, it is shown that the algebraic method can essentially be seen...

  2. Only through perturbation can relaxation times be estimated

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ditlevsen, S.; Lánský, Petr

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 86, č. 5 (2012), 050102-5 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP103/11/0282; GA ČR(CZ) GBP304/12/G069 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : stochastic diffusion * parameter estimation * time constant Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 2.313, year: 2012

  3. Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Kidando

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling technique was employed to estimate the parameters’ posterior distribution. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on a 5-minute basis, were used to calculate the corridor travel time. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions of the travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multistate or single-state models depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods.

  4. A novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Meng; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Ma, Yi

    2018-05-01

    This study presents a novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics. In this model, the evacuation space is discretised into larger cells than those used in microscopic models. This approach directly computes the dynamic changes crowd densities in cells over the course of an evacuation. The density flow is driven by the density-speed correlation. The computation is faster than in traditional cellular automata evacuation models which determine density by computing the movements of each pedestrian. To demonstrate the feasibility of this model, we apply it to a series of practical scenarios and conduct a parameter sensitivity study of the effect of changes in time step δ. The simulation results show that within the valid range of δ, changing δ has only a minor impact on the simulation. The model also makes it possible to directly acquire key information such as bottleneck areas from a time-varied dynamic density map, even when a relatively large time step is adopted. We use the commercial software AnyLogic to evaluate the model. The result shows that the mesoscopic model is more efficient than the microscopic model and provides more in-situ details (e.g., pedestrian movement pattern) than the macroscopic models.

  5. Virtual environment simulation as a tool to support evacuation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mol, Antonio C.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Jorge, Carlos A.F.; Sales, Douglas S.; Couto, Pedro M.; Botelho, Felipe M.; Bastos, Felipe R.

    2007-01-01

    This work is a preliminary study of the use of a free game-engine as a tool to build and to navigate in virtual environments, with a good degree of realism, for virtual simulations of evacuation from building and risk zones. To achieve this goal, some adjustments in the game engine have been implemented. A real building with four floors, consisting of some rooms with furniture and people, has been virtually implemented. Simulations of simple different evacuation scenarios have been performed, measuring the total time spent in each case. The measured times have been compared with their corresponding real evacuation times, measured in the real building. The first results have demonstrated that the virtual environment building with the free game engine is capable to reproduce the real situation with a satisfactory level. However, it is important to emphasize that such virtual simulations serve only as an aid in the planning of real evacuation simulations, and as such must never substitute the later. (author)

  6. Assessing the long-term impact of subsidence and global climate change on emergency evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    Subsidence forecast models for coastal Louisiana were developed to estimate the change in surface elevations of evacuation routes for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Geophysical and anthropogenic subsidence estimates were derived from on-going ...

  7. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  8. Estimate of Passive Time Reversal Communication Performance in Shallow Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunhyo Kim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Time reversal processes have been used to improve communication performance in the severe underwater communication environment characterized by significant multipath channels by reducing inter-symbol interference and increasing signal-to-noise ratio. In general, the performance of the time reversal is strongly related to the behavior of the q -function, which is estimated by a sum of the autocorrelation of the channel impulse response for each channel in the receiver array. The q -function depends on the complexity of the communication channel, the number of channel elements and their spacing. A q -function with a high side-lobe level and a main-lobe width wider than the symbol duration creates a residual ISI (inter-symbol interference, which makes communication difficult even after time reversal is applied. In this paper, we propose a new parameter, E q , to describe the performance of time reversal communication. E q is an estimate of how much of the q -function lies within one symbol duration. The values of E q were estimated using communication data acquired at two different sites: one in which the sound speed ratio of sediment to water was less than unity and one where the ratio was higher than unity. Finally, the parameter E q was compared to the bit error rate and the output signal-to-noise ratio obtained after the time reversal operation. The results show that these parameters are strongly correlated to the parameter E q .

  9. Evacuation Route: Restoring the Railway Transportation of People During the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potemkina Marina Nikolaevna

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the role of the railway transport in migration from the frontline to the Soviet rear during the Great Patriotic War. The research is based on the analysis of the published and archival documents, personal diaries, letters, memoirs, texts of interview with the people who lived through the evacuation. The methodological foundation of the research was based on the theoretical principles made by the Everyday History. Surge attack of the German troops and cruel occupational policy caused the necessity of evacuation of civilians to the Eastern regions of the country. The evacuation was both spontaneous and organized and helped to save millions of human lives. The lack of evacuation plans in case of a war, incompleteness of the railway transport renovation, transport routes destroyed by the enemy and the stream of refugees were among the main factors which complicated evacuation process. The conditions of transportation differed according to the time and the circumstances of the evacuation and a person’s position in social hierarchy. There were some problems during the evacuation, such as regulation of the rail service, sanitation of the carriages, nutrition system, psychological shock. People had to spend weeks in the carriages suffering from cold, hunger and diseases. During the evacuation a new alternative reality appeared with its rules and regulations which changed the concepts of tangible assets and moral values. The priority for any person was to survive, which meant to be independent and to do everything possible.

  10. Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

    2013-04-01

    Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

  11. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  12. Integrating Decentralized Indoor Evacuation with Information Depositories in the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The lonelier evacuees find themselves, the riskier become their wayfinding decisions. This research supports single evacuees in a dynamically changing environment with risk-aware guidance. It deploys the concept of decentralized evacuation, where evacuees are guided by smartphones acquiring environmental knowledge and risk information via exploration and knowledge sharing by peer-to-peer communication. Peer-to-peer communication, however, relies on the chance that people come into communication range with each other. This chance can be low. To bridge between people being not at the same time at the same places, this paper suggests information depositories at strategic locations to improve information sharing. Information depositories collect the knowledge acquired by the smartphones of evacuees passing by, maintain this information, and convey it to other passing-by evacuees. Multi-agent simulation implementing these depositories in an indoor environment shows that integrating depositories improves evacuation performance: It enhances the risk awareness and consequently increases the chance that people survive and reduces their evacuation time. For evacuating dynamic events, deploying depositories at staircases has been shown more effective than deploying them in corridors.

  13. Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2017-02-01

    Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.

  14. H∞ state estimation for discrete-time memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Alsaadi, Fuad E.

    2016-07-01

    This paper deals with the robust H∞ state estimation problem for a class of memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays. The stochastic time-delays under consideration are governed by a Bernoulli-distributed stochastic sequence. The purpose of the addressed problem is to design the robust state estimator such that the dynamics of the estimation error is exponentially stable in the mean square, and the prescribed ? performance constraint is met. By utilizing the difference inclusion theory and choosing a proper Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the existence condition of the desired estimator is derived. Based on it, the explicit expression of the estimator gain is given in terms of the solution to a linear matrix inequality. Finally, a numerical example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed estimation approach.

  15. Soft sensor for real-time cement fineness estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanišić, Darko; Jorgovanović, Nikola; Popov, Nikola; Čongradac, Velimir

    2015-03-01

    This paper describes the design and implementation of soft sensors to estimate cement fineness. Soft sensors are mathematical models that use available data to provide real-time information on process variables when the information, for whatever reason, is not available by direct measurement. In this application, soft sensors are used to provide information on process variable normally provided by off-line laboratory tests performed at large time intervals. Cement fineness is one of the crucial parameters that define the quality of produced cement. Providing real-time information on cement fineness using soft sensors can overcome limitations and problems that originate from a lack of information between two laboratory tests. The model inputs were selected from candidate process variables using an information theoretic approach. Models based on multi-layer perceptrons were developed, and their ability to estimate cement fineness of laboratory samples was analyzed. Models that had the best performance, and capacity to adopt changes in the cement grinding circuit were selected to implement soft sensors. Soft sensors were tested using data from a continuous cement production to demonstrate their use in real-time fineness estimation. Their performance was highly satisfactory, and the sensors proved to be capable of providing valuable information on cement grinding circuit performance. After successful off-line tests, soft sensors were implemented and installed in the control room of a cement factory. Results on the site confirm results obtained by tests conducted during soft sensor development. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Efficient Implementation of a Symbol Timing Estimator for Broadband PLC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nombela, Francisco; García, Enrique; Mateos, Raúl; Hernández, Álvaro

    2015-08-21

    Broadband Power Line Communications (PLC) have taken advantage of the research advances in multi-carrier modulations to mitigate frequency selective fading, and their adoption opens up a myriad of applications in the field of sensory and automation systems, multimedia connectivity or smart spaces. Nonetheless, the use of these multi-carrier modulations, such as Wavelet-OFDM, requires a highly accurate symbol timing estimation for reliably recovering of transmitted data. Furthermore, the PLC channel presents some particularities that prevent the direct use of previous synchronization algorithms proposed in wireless communication systems. Therefore more research effort should be involved in the design and implementation of novel and robust synchronization algorithms for PLC, thus enabling real-time synchronization. This paper proposes a symbol timing estimator for broadband PLC based on cross-correlation with multilevel complementary sequences or Zadoff-Chu sequences and its efficient implementation in a FPGA; the obtained results show a 90% of success rate in symbol timing estimation for a certain PLC channel model and a reduced resource consumption for its implementation in a Xilinx Kyntex FPGA.

  17. Efficient Implementation of a Symbol Timing Estimator for Broadband PLC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Nombela

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Broadband Power Line Communications (PLC have taken advantage of the research advances in multi-carrier modulations to mitigate frequency selective fading, and their adoption opens up a myriad of applications in the field of sensory and automation systems, multimedia connectivity or smart spaces. Nonetheless, the use of these multi-carrier modulations, such as Wavelet-OFDM, requires a highly accurate symbol timing estimation for reliably recovering of transmitted data. Furthermore, the PLC channel presents some particularities that prevent the direct use of previous synchronization algorithms proposed in wireless communication systems. Therefore more research effort should be involved in the design and implementation of novel and robust synchronization algorithms for PLC, thus enabling real-time synchronization. This paper proposes a symbol timing estimator for broadband PLC based on cross-correlation with multilevel complementary sequences or Zadoff-Chu sequences and its efficient implementation in a FPGA; the obtained results show a 90% of success rate in symbol timing estimation for a certain PLC channel model and a reduced resource consumption for its implementation in a Xilinx Kyntex FPGA.

  18. Evacuation a serious game for preparation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolen, B.; Thonus, B.; van Zuilekom, Kasper M.; de Romph, E.

    2011-01-01

    Mass evacuation is a measure to reduce possible loss of life in the case of potential disasters. Planning for mass evacuation is only useful if these plans are tested and evaluated by government and the public in reality or in simulated events. As a result, any prior experience is likely to be

  19. Time-to-contact estimation modulated by implied friction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Yuki; Sasaki, Kyoshiro; Miura, Kayo

    2014-01-01

    The present study demonstrated that friction cues for target motion affect time-to-contact (TTC) estimation. A circular target moved in a linear path with a constant velocity and was gradually occluded by a static rectangle. The target moved with forward and backward spins or without spin. Observers were asked to respond at the time when the moving target appeared to pass the occluder. The results showed that TTC was significantly longer in the backward spin condition than in the forward and without-spin conditions. Moreover, similar results were obtained when a sound was used to imply friction. Our findings indicate that the observer's experiential knowledge of motion coupled with friction intuitively modulated their TTC estimation.

  20. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  1. Time Delay Estimation in Room Acoustic Environments: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benesty Jacob

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Time delay estimation has been a research topic of significant practical importance in many fields (radar, sonar, seismology, geophysics, ultrasonics, hands-free communications, etc.. It is a first stage that feeds into subsequent processing blocks for identifying, localizing, and tracking radiating sources. This area has made remarkable advances in the past few decades, and is continuing to progress, with an aim to create processors that are tolerant to both noise and reverberation. This paper presents a systematic overview of the state-of-the-art of time-delay-estimation algorithms ranging from the simple cross-correlation method to the advanced blind channel identification based techniques. We discuss the pros and cons of each individual algorithm, and outline their inherent relationships. We also provide experimental results to illustrate their performance differences in room acoustic environments where reverberation and noise are commonly encountered.

  2. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L

    2017-01-01

    Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  3. Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yago Martín

    Full Text Available Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

  4. Schroedinger operators - geometric estimates in terms of the occupation time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demuth, M.; Kirsch, W.; McGillivray, I.

    1995-01-01

    The difference of Schroedinger and Dirichlet semigroups is expressed in terms of the Laplace transform of the Brownian motion occupation time. This implies quantitative upper and lower bounds for the operator norms of the corresponding resolvent differences. One spectral theoretical consequence is an estimate for the eigenfunction for a Schroedinger operator in a ball where the potential is given as a cone indicator function. 12 refs

  5. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  6. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012

    CERN Document Server

    Kirsch, Uwe; Schreckenberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The 6th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics conference (PED2012) showcased research on human locomotion. This book presents the proceedings of PED2012. Humans have walked for eons; our drive to settle the globe began with a walk out of Africa. However, much remains to discover. As the world moves toward sustainability while racing to assess and accommodate climate change, research must provide insight on the physical requirements of walking, the dynamics of pedestrians on the move and more. We must understand, predict and simulate pedestrian behaviour, to avoid dangerous situations, to plan for emergencies, and not least, to make walking more attractive and enjoyable. PED2012 offered 70 presentations and keynotes and 70 poster presentations covering new and improved mathematical models, describing new insights on pedestrian behaviour in normal and emergency cases and presenting research based on sensors and advanced observation methods. These papers offer a starting point for innova...

  7. Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia

  8. Gut evacuation rate and grazing impact of the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teglhus, Frederik Wolff; Agersted, Mette Dalgaard; Arendt, Kristine Engel

    2015-01-01

    Gut evacuation rates and ingestion rates were measured for the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis in Godthåbsfjord, SW Greenland. Combined with biomass of the krill community, the grazing potential on phytoplankton along the fjord was estimated. Gut evacuation rates were 3.9 and 2.3 h−1 for...... standing stock being removed per day during this late spring study...

  9. CT guided stereotactic evacuation of hypertensive and traumatic intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondo, Hideki; Matsumoto, Keizo

    1983-01-01

    Recent advancement of CT system provides not only definite diagnosis and location of intracerebral hematoma but also coordinates of the center of the hematoma. Trials of stereotactic evacuation of the hematoma have been reported by some authors in the cases of subacute or chronic stages of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. In this series, similar surgery has been performed in 33 cases of hypertensive intracerebral hematoma including 22 cases in acute stage, and 2 cases of traumatic hematoma. Clinical outcomes were investigated and the results were considered to be equivalent or rather better in the conventional microsurgery with evacuation of hematoma under direct vision. However, there still remained controversial problems in the cases of threatened herniation signs, because in these cases regular surgery with total evacuation of the hematoma at one time might have been preferable. The benefits of this CT guided stereotactic approach for the evacuation of the hematoma were thought to be as follow: 1) the procedure is simple and safe, 2) operation is readily performed under local anesthesia, and 3) the hematoma was drained out totally by means of urokinase activity. It is our impression that this surgery not only is indicated as emergency treatment for the patients of high-age or in high risk, but also can institute as a routine surgery for the intracerebral hematomas in patients showing no herniation sign. (J.P.N.)

  10. Minimum Distance Estimation on Time Series Analysis With Little Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tekin, Hakan

    2001-01-01

    .... Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets...

  11. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2016-01-01

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study

  13. Real-time estimation of differential piston at the LBT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, Michael; Pott, Jörg-Uwe; Sawodny, Oliver; Herbst, Tom; Kürster, Martin

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, we present and compare different strategies to minimize the effects of telescope vibrations to the differential piston (OPD) for LINC/NIRVANA at the LBT using an accelerometer feedforward compensation approach. We summarize why this technology is of importance for LINC/NIRVANA, but also for future telescopes and instruments. We outline the estimation problem in general and its specifics at the LBT. Model based estimation and broadband filtering techniques can be used to solve the estimation task, each having its own advantages and disadvantages, which will be discussed. Simulation results and measurements at the LBT are shown to motivate and support our choice of the estimation algorithm for the instrument LINC/NIRVANA. We explain our laboratory setup aimed at imitating the vibration behaviour at the LBT in general, and the M2 as main contributor in particular, and we demonstrate the controller's ability to suppress vibrations in the frequency range of 8 Hz to 60 Hz. In this range, telescope vibrations are the most dominant disturbance to the optical path. For our measurements, we introduce a disturbance time series which has a frequency spectrum comparable to what can be measured at the LBT on a typical night. We show promising experimental results, indicating the ability to suppress differential piston induced by telescope vibrations by a factor of about 5 (RMS), which is significantly better than any currently commissioned system.

  14. Investigation of metabolites for estimating blood deposition time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, Karolina; Liu, Fan; Davies, Sarah K; Ackermann, Katrin; Ang, Joo Ern; Middleton, Benita; Revell, Victoria L; Raynaud, Florence J; Hoveijn, Igor; Hut, Roelof A; Skene, Debra J; Kayser, Manfred

    2018-01-01

    Trace deposition timing reflects a novel concept in forensic molecular biology involving the use of rhythmic biomarkers for estimating the time within a 24-h day/night cycle a human biological sample was left at the crime scene, which in principle allows verifying a sample donor's alibi. Previously, we introduced two circadian hormones for trace deposition timing and recently demonstrated that messenger RNA (mRNA) biomarkers significantly improve time prediction accuracy. Here, we investigate the suitability of metabolites measured using a targeted metabolomics approach, for trace deposition timing. Analysis of 171 plasma metabolites collected around the clock at 2-h intervals for 36 h from 12 male participants under controlled laboratory conditions identified 56 metabolites showing statistically significant oscillations, with peak times falling into three day/night time categories: morning/noon, afternoon/evening and night/early morning. Time prediction modelling identified 10 independently contributing metabolite biomarkers, which together achieved prediction accuracies expressed as AUC of 0.81, 0.86 and 0.90 for these three time categories respectively. Combining metabolites with previously established hormone and mRNA biomarkers in time prediction modelling resulted in an improved prediction accuracy reaching AUCs of 0.85, 0.89 and 0.96 respectively. The additional impact of metabolite biomarkers, however, was rather minor as the previously established model with melatonin, cortisol and three mRNA biomarkers achieved AUC values of 0.88, 0.88 and 0.95 for the same three time categories respectively. Nevertheless, the selected metabolites could become practically useful in scenarios where RNA marker information is unavailable such as due to RNA degradation. This is the first metabolomics study investigating circulating metabolites for trace deposition timing, and more work is needed to fully establish their usefulness for this forensic purpose.

  15. Reconstruction of the doses to the population evacuated from the 30 km-zone around the Chernobyl reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proehl, G.; Meckbach, R.; Likhtarev, I.; Kovgan, L.; Chumak, V.; Golikov, V.

    2000-06-01

    As a consequence of the Chernobyl accident, large areas around the reactor were severely contaminated. As a consequence, the 30 km zone around the reactor was evacuated. The evacuation started with the city of Pripyat with a population of approximately 50000. For early evacuees, the exposure was mainly due to external exposure and inhalation, since the time was too short to induce relevant ingestion doses (Goulko et al., 1998). In contrast to Pripyat, for most of the other evacuees from the 30 km zone the time period was long enough to receive also relevant exposures via the ingestion pathway. Various assessments performed for contaminated areas have underlined the importance of ingestion and inhalation for the exposure of the evacuated population. For the population living in the contaminated area, external exposure was one of the most relevant pathways. Short-lived radionuclides and early migration processes of the radionuclides influenced these exposures. Before the present project these contributions and processes were only implicitly taken into account in areas where a sufficient number of early gamma dose rate measurements was performed. A general model on early external exposures of the population in contaminated areas was missing. Also, for later periods there was no general model for the uncertainties of estimates of external exposures. (orig.)

  16. Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

    2018-03-01

    Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

  17. Real-time gaze estimation via pupil center tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cazzato Dario

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Automatic gaze estimation not based on commercial and expensive eye tracking hardware solutions can enable several applications in the fields of human computer interaction (HCI and human behavior analysis. It is therefore not surprising that several related techniques and methods have been investigated in recent years. However, very few camera-based systems proposed in the literature are both real-time and robust. In this work, we propose a real-time user-calibration-free gaze estimation system that does not need person-dependent calibration, can deal with illumination changes and head pose variations, and can work with a wide range of distances from the camera. Our solution is based on a 3-D appearance-based method that processes the images from a built-in laptop camera. Real-time performance is obtained by combining head pose information with geometrical eye features to train a machine learning algorithm. Our method has been validated on a data set of images of users in natural environments, and shows promising results. The possibility of a real-time implementation, combined with the good quality of gaze tracking, make this system suitable for various HCI applications.

  18. Estimation of dynamic flux profiles from metabolic time series data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chou I-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in modern high-throughput techniques of molecular biology have enabled top-down approaches for the estimation of parameter values in metabolic systems, based on time series data. Special among them is the recent method of dynamic flux estimation (DFE, which uses such data not only for parameter estimation but also for the identification of functional forms of the processes governing a metabolic system. DFE furthermore provides diagnostic tools for the evaluation of model validity and of the quality of a model fit beyond residual errors. Unfortunately, DFE works only when the data are more or less complete and the system contains as many independent fluxes as metabolites. These drawbacks may be ameliorated with other types of estimation and information. However, such supplementations incur their own limitations. In particular, assumptions must be made regarding the functional forms of some processes and detailed kinetic information must be available, in addition to the time series data. Results The authors propose here a systematic approach that supplements DFE and overcomes some of its shortcomings. Like DFE, the approach is model-free and requires only minimal assumptions. If sufficient time series data are available, the approach allows the determination of a subset of fluxes that enables the subsequent applicability of DFE to the rest of the flux system. The authors demonstrate the procedure with three artificial pathway systems exhibiting distinct characteristics and with actual data of the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the proposed method successfully complements DFE under various situations and without a priori assumptions regarding the model representation. The proposed method also permits an examination of whether at all, to what degree, or within what range the available time series data can be validly represented in a particular functional format of

  19. Parametric estimation of time varying baselines in airborne interferometric SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohr, Johan Jacob; Madsen, Søren Nørvang

    1996-01-01

    A method for estimation of time varying spatial baselines in airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is described. The range and azimuth distortions between two images acquired with a non-linear baseline are derived. A parametric model of the baseline is then, in a least square...... sense, estimated from image shifts obtained by cross correlation of numerous small patches throughout the image. The method has been applied to airborne EMISAR imagery from the 1995 campaign over the Storstrommen Glacier in North East Greenland conducted by the Danish Center for Remote Sensing. This has...... reduced the baseline uncertainties from several meters to the centimeter level in a 36 km scene. Though developed for airborne SAR the method can easily be adopted to satellite data...

  20. Statistical methods of parameter estimation for deterministically chaotic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Sornette, D.

    2004-03-01

    We discuss the possibility of applying some standard statistical methods (the least-square method, the maximum likelihood method, and the method of statistical moments for estimation of parameters) to deterministically chaotic low-dimensional dynamic system (the logistic map) containing an observational noise. A “segmentation fitting” maximum likelihood (ML) method is suggested to estimate the structural parameter of the logistic map along with the initial value x1 considered as an additional unknown parameter. The segmentation fitting method, called “piece-wise” ML, is similar in spirit but simpler and has smaller bias than the “multiple shooting” previously proposed. Comparisons with different previously proposed techniques on simulated numerical examples give favorable results (at least, for the investigated combinations of sample size N and noise level). Besides, unlike some suggested techniques, our method does not require the a priori knowledge of the noise variance. We also clarify the nature of the inherent difficulties in the statistical analysis of deterministically chaotic time series and the status of previously proposed Bayesian approaches. We note the trade off between the need of using a large number of data points in the ML analysis to decrease the bias (to guarantee consistency of the estimation) and the unstable nature of dynamical trajectories with exponentially fast loss of memory of the initial condition. The method of statistical moments for the estimation of the parameter of the logistic map is discussed. This method seems to be the unique method whose consistency for deterministically chaotic time series is proved so far theoretically (not only numerically).

  1. Continuous Fine-Fault Estimation with Real-Time GNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norford, B. B.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.; Santillan, V. M.; Scrivner, C.; Senko, J.; Larsen, D.

    2017-12-01

    Thousands of real-time telemetered GNSS stations operate throughout the circum-Pacific that may be used for rapid earthquake characterization and estimation of local tsunami excitation. We report on the development of a GNSS-based finite-fault inversion system that continuously estimates slip using real-time GNSS position streams from the Cascadia subduction zone and which is being expanded throughout the circum-Pacific. The system uses 1 Hz precise point position streams computed in the ITRF14 reference frame using clock and satellite orbit corrections from the IGS. The software is implemented as seven independent modules that filter time series using Kalman filters, trigger and estimate coseismic offsets, invert for slip using a non-negative least squares method developed by Lawson and Hanson (1974) and elastic half-space Green's Functions developed by Okada (1985), smooth the results temporally and spatially, and write the resulting streams of time-dependent slip to a RabbitMQ messaging server for use by downstream modules such as tsunami excitation modules. Additional fault models can be easily added to the system for other circum-Pacific subduction zones as additional real-time GNSS data become available. The system is currently being tested using data from well-recorded earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 2010 Maule earthquake, the 2015 Illapel earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2014 Iquique earthquake, the 2010 Mentawai earthquake, the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, the 2016 Ecuador earthquake, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, and others. Test data will be fed to the system and the resultant earthquake characterizations will be compared with published earthquake parameters. Seismic events will be assumed to occur on major faults, so, for example, only the San Andreas fault will be considered in Southern California, while the hundreds of other faults in the region will be ignored. Rake will be constrained along each subfault to be

  2. Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair

    2016-04-01

    Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data

  3. Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltout, Mosalam

    Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.

  4. Estimation of vegetation cover resilience from satellite time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Simoniello

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Resilience is a fundamental concept for understanding vegetation as a dynamic component of the climate system. It expresses the ability of ecosystems to tolerate disturbances and to recover their initial state. Recovery times are basic parameters of the vegetation's response to forcing and, therefore, are essential for describing realistic vegetation within dynamical models. Healthy vegetation tends to rapidly recover from shock and to persist in growth and expansion. On the contrary, climatic and anthropic stress can reduce resilience thus favouring persistent decrease in vegetation activity.

    In order to characterize resilience, we analyzed the time series 1982–2003 of 8 km GIMMS AVHRR-NDVI maps of the Italian territory. Persistence probability of negative and positive trends was estimated according to the vegetation cover class, altitude, and climate. Generally, mean recovery times from negative trends were shorter than those estimated for positive trends, as expected for vegetation of healthy status. Some signatures of inefficient resilience were found in high-level mountainous areas and in the Mediterranean sub-tropical ones. This analysis was refined by aggregating pixels according to phenology. This multitemporal clustering synthesized information on vegetation cover, climate, and orography rather well. The consequent persistence estimations confirmed and detailed hints obtained from the previous analyses. Under the same climatic regime, different vegetation resilience levels were found. In particular, within the Mediterranean sub-tropical climate, clustering was able to identify features with different persistence levels in areas that are liable to different levels of anthropic pressure. Moreover, it was capable of enhancing reduced vegetation resilience also in the southern areas under Warm Temperate sub-continental climate. The general consistency of the obtained results showed that, with the help of suited analysis

  5. The simulation of sanitary objects evacuation: An example of hotel 'Radon' in Niška Banja

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jevtić Radoje B.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Object evacuation is one of the most important, the most responsible and the most complex tasks for human safety in objects generally. This is especially important for objects with lot oh humans, such as health facilities, high residential objects, hotels, schools, etc. This is still an open and ongoing problem which can be confirmed by many injured people who were not evacuated in the disasters. This paper has written to show the possible evacuation situation and calculate minimal time for evacuation in case of Hotel Radon in Niška Banja, as one specific health facility with hardly moving and immobile patients.

  6. Estimation of modal parameters using bilinear joint time frequency distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan-Ghias, A.; Shamsollahi, M. B.; Mobed, M.; Behzad, M.

    2007-07-01

    In this paper, a new method is proposed for modal parameter estimation using time-frequency representations. Smoothed Pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution which is a member of the Cohen's class distributions is used to decouple vibration modes completely in order to study each mode separately. This distribution reduces cross-terms which are troublesome in Wigner-Ville distribution and retains the resolution as well. The method was applied to highly damped systems, and results were superior to those obtained via other conventional methods.

  7. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan

    2017-05-01

    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  8. The peculiarities of formation of circulatory system pathology of evacuated adult population exposed to ionizing radiation on thyroid gland after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapustinskaia O.A.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research - analysis of the structure and dynamics of the morbidity among eva¬cuated population, the peculiarities of pathogenesis of the most widespread forms of circulatory system (CS pathology in the remote period after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Materials and methods. Three groups of persons evacuated from Chernobyl zone of alienation were researched: persons aged 10-17 (6517 persons, 18-39 (496 persons, 40-60 (458 persons. The data on the individual radiation doses which affected thyroid gland were selected at the State Register of Ukraine on persons affected by the Chernobyl disaster. Morbidity rate was estimated per 103 man-year for 5-years periods of monitoring. The main results: Time from the moment of Chernobyl accident affected the formation of morbidity structure of evacuated population. It was fixed two peaks of morbidity incidence - initial and in 12 years. The most essential changes in CS morbidity of evacuated population were fixed 26 years later mainly in cere¬brovascular diseases. The coronary artery disease takes the first place in the morbidity structure. Significant dif¬ferences were detected at age-specific aspect. The evacuated adult population aged 18-39 years was the most vulnerable for the development of CS diseases. Adverse health effects confirmed the necessity of further research of CS morbidity with the differentiation of doses affected thyroid gland.

  9. Preclinical Evaluation of the Effects of Aeromedical Evacuation on Military-Relevant Casualties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Evaluation of the timing of aeromedical evacuation in rat and swine models of TBI and polytrauma ” will investigate whether early vs delayed aeromedical...injury. Instrumented swine with polytrauma [TBI, hemorrhagic shock (HS), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)] will be resuscitated and...2). WRAIR/NMRC IACUC protocol 17-OUMD-29LS “Evaluation of the Timing of Aeromedical Evacuation in Rat and Swine Models of TBI and Polytrauma

  10. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Sánchez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  11. Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability

  12. Aero-medical evacuation from the second Israel-Lebanon war: a descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Dagan; Resheff, Avram; Geftler, Alex; Weiss, Aviram; Birenbaum, Erez; Lavon, Ophir

    2009-05-01

    The second Lebanon war started as a limited operation and progressed to a large-scale campaign. Most of the fighting took place in mountainous villages and small towns inhabited with civilians. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Airborne rescue and evacuation unit is charged with air evacuation of soldiers and civilians in times of peace, limited conflict, and war. We describe this unit's activities in the second Lebanon war, analyzing injury, treatment, and evacuation characteristics Data were collected from flight medical reports, debriefings of aero-medical team members (usually immediately upon return from mission), ground units medical reports and debriefings, and hospital records. 725 IDF soldiers were injured and 117 killed either in Lebanon or near the Israeli-Lebanese border during the war. A total of 338 (46%) were evacuated in 95 airlifts (averaging 4.5 evacuees per airlift) from the fighting zones or the border. Air evacuation used dedicated helicopters with advanced care capacities, and most victims were evacuated straight from the battlefield, as the fighting was ensuing. Many wounded first received advanced medical care upon the arrival of the aero-medical teams. In military operations within civilian populated areas with threats to ground transport, air evacuation can sometimes be the only readily available option. Providing timely ground advanced medical care proved difficult in many instances. Thus, for many, the rescue helicopter was the first point of access to such care. Aero-medical aircrafts and personnel faced threats from gunfire and missiles, causing both delays in evacuation and a high average number of evacuees per airlift. This article proposes ways of coping with situations in which similar rescue and evacuation problems are likely.

  13. To stay or to go? Balancing the risk of reprocessing plant control room evacuation following a criticality alarm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Love, Suzanne; McCrindle, David; Harris, Neil; Haworth, Justin

    2003-01-01

    Following a criticality alarm within the Magnox Separation Plant at Sellafield, there is a conflict of interest between the risks associated with complete evacuation versus continued manning of the control room. The historic emergency response policy would be to completely evacuate the control room upon a criticality alarm. If, however, the alarm was found to be false, the inevitable loss in control over the plant could have environmental, operational and radiological release consequences. Maintaining control room manning following a genuine alarm might, however, result in an avoidable high dose to an operator. Based upon the estimated dose equivalent to a control room operator for a range of criticality incident morphologies a risk analysis was undertaken. The results indicate that the differential risk between an operator who evacuates immediately and an operator who remains for a short time to complete diagnostic checks is very small. As a consequence a new emergency policy was therefore developed on plant which results in a relatively low risk to control room operators, but still allows control over the plant to be retained following a false criticality alarm. (author)

  14. Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jumadi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario.

  15. Factors associated with high-rise evacuation: qualitative results from the World Trade Center Evacuation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershon, Robyn R M; Qureshi, Kristine A; Rubin, Marcie S; Raveis, Victoria H

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fact that most high-rise structures (i.e., >75 feet high, or eight to ten stories) are constructed with extensive and redundant fire safety features, current fire safety procedures typically only involve limited evacuation during minor to moderate fire emergencies. Therefore, full-scale evacuation of high-rise buildings is highly unusual and consequently, little is known about how readily and rapidly high-rise structures can be evacuated fully. Factors that either facilitate or inhibit the evacuation process remain under-studied. This paper presents results from the qualitative phase of the World Trade Center Evacuation Study, a three-year, five-phase study designed to improve our understanding of the individual, organizational, and environmental factors that helped or hindered evacuation from the World Trade Center (WTC) Towers 1 and 2, on 11 September 2001. Qualitative data from semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus groups involving WTC evacuees were collected and analyzed. On the individual level, factors that affected evacuation included perception of risk (formed largely by sensory cues), preparedness training, degree of familiarity with the building, physical condition, health status, and footwear. Individual behavior also was affected by group behavior and leadership. At the organizational level, evacuation was affected by worksite preparedness planning, including the training and education of building occupants, and risk communication. The environmental conditions affecting evacuation included smoke, flames, debris, general condition and degree of crowdedness on staircases, and communication infrastructure systems (e.g., public address, landline, cellular and fire warden's telephones). Various factors at the individual, organizational, and environmental levels were identified that affected evacuation. Interventions that address the barriers to evacuation may improve the full-scale evacuation of other high-rise buildings under extreme

  16. Proactive Traffic Information Control in Emergency Evacuation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengfeng Huang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic demand in emergency evacuation is usually too large to be effectively managed with reactive traffic information control methods. These methods adapt to the road traffic passively by publishing real-time information without consideration of the routing behavior feedback produced by evacuees. Other remedy measures have to be prepared in case of nonrecurring congestion under these methods. To use the network capacity fully to mitigate near-future evacuation traffic congestion, we propose proactive traffic information control (PTIC model. Based on the mechanism between information and routing behavior feedback, this model can change the route choice of evacuees in advance by dissipating strategic traffic information. Generally, the near-future traffic condition is difficult to accurately predict because it is uncertain in evacuation. Assume that the value of traffic information obeys certain distribution within a range, and then real-time traffic information may reflect the most-likely near-future traffic condition. Unlike the real-time information, the proactive traffic information is a selection within the range to achieve a desired level of the road network performance index (total system travel time. In the aspect of the solution algorithm, differential equilibrium decomposed optimization (D-EDO is proposed to compare with other heuristic methods. A field study on a road network around a large stadium is used to validate the PTIC.

  17. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  18. ARKTOS full-scale evacuation tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seligman, B.; Hatfield, P. [ARKTOS Developments Ltd., Surrey, BC (Canada); Bercha, F. [Bercha Group, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-09-15

    The ARKTOS amphibious vehicle can be used for evacuation operations in both open water and ice conditions. It is approved as an evacuation system by various regulators, such as the United States Coast Guard, and is operational in several marine cold regions as an escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) system. An EER research project was performed in 2006 that provided a general reliability evaluation of the ARKTOS system. However, the project did not have the benefit of detailed full-scale tests in order to validate the associated computer model in drill or non-life threatening evacuation conditions. This paper described a follow-up set of full-scale evacuation tests designed to provide more detailed information and validation data for the reliability that the computer model described in the 2006 research project. A description and photographic illustrations of the ARKTOS system were presented. The tests and subsequent analyses were described. Specifically, the paper described the observations, and presented the statistical results from the data collected, and compared observed results with predicted results of a probabilistic EER simulation computer model. Conclusions and recommendations for reliability improvements were also provided. It was concluded that under the benign conditions, the drill performance was satisfactory in all aspects, both in the evacuation activities and the rescue or de-boarding activities. 3 refs., 1 tab., 17 figs.

  19. EVACUATION ROUTE MAPPING AGAINST SLAMET VOLCANO DISASTER AT GUNUNGSARI VILLAGE, PULOSARI SUB DISTRICT, PEMALANG DISTRICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misdiyanto Misdiyanto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Villages inside the hazard zone of Slamet Volcano should have an evacuation map, as an anticipation and guidance to guide people evacuate when volcanic activity on the area arise to dangerous level. The experience which occurred at 2009 and 2010 indicate the necessity of the development of evacuation map for 7 villages inside the hazard zone in the Pemalang residential district, such as village of Gunung Sari. The main purpose of the developing an evacuation map is to make the village of Gunung sari becoming more vigilant to anticipate the danger of Slamet Mount eruption. Qualitative methods were used in this study, by handing out preliminary questionnaire to investigate the characteristic of the residents. The development of evacuation map also relies on the participation of the residents, then the resulted map were evaluated by assessing how far people can understand and comprehend any information provided on the map. The result of the investigation shows that Gunungsari’s resident wants an evacuation map, shown by high enthusiasm on the questions of the necessity of an evacuation map and disaster preparedness team that is equal to 97% of the residents on Dusun Sipendil, 83% on dusun Sibedil, 67% on Dusun Silegok, and 63% on Dusun Krajan. The residents also understand and comprehend the information provided on the map nicely, especially about the timing and rendezvous location for the evacuation. It is indicated by high proportion of residents that answer the questions asked accurately, which is 100% on Dusun Sipendil, 97% on Dusun Sibedil, and 80% for both Dusun Silegok and Dusun Krajan. Keywords: disaster prone area, evacuation map, society characteristic

  20. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang-Hua Zhang; Hai-Yue Liu; Rui Zhu; Yang Liu

    2017-01-01

    The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the...

  1. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  2. Challenges in automated estimation of capillary refill time in dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugmas, Blaž; Spigulis, Janis

    2018-02-01

    Capillary refill time (CRT) is a part of the cardiorespiratory examination in dogs. Changes in CRT can reflect pathological conditions like shock or anemia. Visual CRT estimation has low repeatability; therefore, optical systems for automated estimation have recently appeared. Since existing systems are unsuitable for use in dogs, we designed a simple, small and portable device, which could be easily used at veterinary clinic. The device was preliminarily tested on several measurement sites in two dogs. Not all measurement sites were suitable for CRT measurements due to underlying tissue optical and mechanical properties. The CRT measurements were possible on the labial mucosa, above the sternum and on the digit where CRT was in the range of values, retrieved from the color video of the visual CRT measurement. It seems that light penetration predominantly governs tissue optical response when the pressure is applied. Therefore, it is important to select a proper light, which reaches only superficial capillaries and does not penetrate deeper. Blue or green light is probably suitable for light skin or mucosa, on the other hand, red or near-infrared might be used for skin with pigmented or thick epidermis. Additionally, further improvements of the device design are considered, like adding a calibrated spring, which would insure application of consistent pressure.

  3. Real-time yield estimation based on deep learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnemoonfar, Maryam; Sheppard, Clay

    2017-05-01

    Crop yield estimation is an important task in product management and marketing. Accurate yield prediction helps farmers to make better decision on cultivation practices, plant disease prevention, and the size of harvest labor force. The current practice of yield estimation based on the manual counting of fruits is very time consuming and expensive process and it is not practical for big fields. Robotic systems including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), provide an efficient, cost-effective, flexible, and scalable solution for product management and yield prediction. Recently huge data has been gathered from agricultural field, however efficient analysis of those data is still a challenging task. Computer vision approaches currently face diffident challenges in automatic counting of fruits or flowers including occlusion caused by leaves, branches or other fruits, variance in natural illumination, and scale. In this paper a novel deep convolutional network algorithm was developed to facilitate the accurate yield prediction and automatic counting of fruits and vegetables on the images. Our method is robust to occlusion, shadow, uneven illumination and scale. Experimental results in comparison to the state-of-the art show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

  4. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

    2017-03-01

    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  5. Conceptual study on the containment design aiming at 'no evacuation'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andou, Kouji; Takii, Taichi; Kikuyama, Tomohiko; Taminami, Tatsuya

    2003-01-01

    The next generation reactors represented in ABWR-II should enhance not only economics but also safety. Especially, the ideal target of 'No Evacuation', that is, no FP (Fission Product) release in severe accidents should be required. This paper provides the conceptual design achieving 'No Evacuation' by using only the passive systems, that are, the passive containment cooling system (PCCS), the large amount of water inside containment, outside pool by utilizing gap between containment and surrounding building, and the natural heat removal from the containment surface to atmosphere. Furthermore, it is also easy to adopt the countermeasure for airplane crash by using a dome shelter and the dispersed layout as an option. At the same time, the amount of the construction material of this concept is competitive comparing with that of the conventional BWR because it is easy to use the steel structure or the steel plate reinforced concrete structure over a wide area. (author)

  6. An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  7. Estimating negative binomial parameters from occurrence data with detection times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Wen-Han; Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub

    2016-11-01

    The negative binomial distribution is a common model for the analysis of count data in biology and ecology. In many applications, we may not observe the complete frequency count in a quadrat but only that a species occurred in the quadrat. If only occurrence data are available then the two parameters of the negative binomial distribution, the aggregation index and the mean, are not identifiable. This can be overcome by data augmentation or through modeling the dependence between quadrat occupancies. Here, we propose to record the (first) detection time while collecting occurrence data in a quadrat. We show that under what we call proportionate sampling, where the time to survey a region is proportional to the area of the region, that both negative binomial parameters are estimable. When the mean parameter is larger than two, our proposed approach is more efficient than the data augmentation method developed by Solow and Smith (, Am. Nat. 176, 96-98), and in general is cheaper to conduct. We also investigate the effect of misidentification when collecting negative binomially distributed data, and conclude that, in general, the effect can be simply adjusted for provided that the mean and variance of misidentification probabilities are known. The results are demonstrated in a simulation study and illustrated in several real examples. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Flexible endoscope-assisted evacuation of chronic subdural hematomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Májovský, Martin; Masopust, Václav; Netuka, David; Beneš, Vladimír

    2016-10-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common neurosurgical condition with an increasing incidence. Standard treatment of CSDHs is surgical evacuation. The objective of this study is to present a modification of standard burr-hole hematoma evacuation using a flexible endoscope and to assess the advantages and risks. Prospectively, 34 consecutive patients diagnosed with CSDH were included in the study. Epidemiological, clinical and radiographical data were collected and reviewed. All patients underwent a burr-hole evacuation of CSDH. A flexible endoscope was inserted and subdural space inspected during surgery. The surgeon was looking specifically for the presence of septations, draining catheter position and acute bleeding. Thirty-four patients underwent 37 endoscope-assisted surgeries. Presenting symptoms were hemiparesis (79%), decreased level of consciousness (18%), gait disturbances (15%), headache (12%), aphasia (6%), cognitive disturbances (6%) and epileptic seizure (3%). Average operative time was 43 min, and the average increase in operative time due to the use of the endoscope was 6 min. Recurrence rate was 8.8%, and clinical outcome was favorable (defined as mRS ≤ 2) in 97% of the cases. To our knowledge, the present cohort of 34 patients is the largest group of patients with CSDH treated using an endoscope. This technique allows decent visualization of the hematoma cavity while retaining the advantages of a minimally invasive approach under a local anesthesia. The main advantages are correct positioning of the catheter under visual control, identification of septations and early detection of cortex or vessel injury during surgery.

  9. The Time Is Up: Compression of Visual Time Interval Estimations of Bimodal Aperiodic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Fabiola; Lemus, Luis

    2017-01-01

    The ability to estimate time intervals subserves many of our behaviors and perceptual experiences. However, it is not clear how aperiodic (AP) stimuli affect our perception of time intervals across sensory modalities. To address this question, we evaluated the human capacity to discriminate between two acoustic (A), visual (V) or audiovisual (AV) time intervals of trains of scattered pulses. We first measured the periodicity of those stimuli and then sought for correlations with the accuracy and reaction times (RTs) of the subjects. We found that, for all time intervals tested in our experiment, the visual system consistently perceived AP stimuli as being shorter than the periodic (P) ones. In contrast, such a compression phenomenon was not apparent during auditory trials. Our conclusions are: first, the subjects exposed to P stimuli are more likely to measure their durations accurately. Second, perceptual time compression occurs for AP visual stimuli. Lastly, AV discriminations are determined by A dominance rather than by AV enhancement. PMID:28848406

  10. Tsunami Evacuation Exercises: the Case of Heraklion, Crete Isl., Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, I.; Charalampakis, M.; Bocchini, G. M.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    Effective tsunami evacuation requires appropriate awareness as regards good shelters selection. Field exercises may improve public awareness. A field exercise was organized in Heraklion, Crete Isl., in 2016. The area is part of the Hellenic Arc which is the most active structure in the Mediterranean. Large earthquakes triggered tsunamis that hit Heraklion in the past, such in AD 1303. After selecting various fault models, simulation of the 1303 tsunami showed important inundation zone in Heraklion. For the exercise needs a team of 30 volunteers was divided in 3 groups of 10 people each. Everyone was equipped with a mobile phone and a GPS device. The 3 groups were gathered in 3 coastal spots Heraklion situated 400 m apart each other. The scenario was that immediately after receiving in their mobile a tsunami warning message they will set on their personal GPS device and start evacuating inland on the best way they believed to do so. In each group, only 5 out of 10 volunteers were notified beforehand that the Eleftherias Square, located inland at distance satisfying evacuation needs in case of repeat of the 1303 tsunami, would be a good shelter to go. Using the Road Graph Plugin of QGIS, we calculated the shortest path distances which found equal to 800, 700 and 680 m. Adopting average velocity of 3 km/h we found that these distances can be covered within 18, 16 and 15 min, respectively. The routes towards the settlement spots as well as the times needed to arrive there by each one of the 30 volunteers were recorded by their personal GPS devices. The processing of the GPS tracks and their comparison with the theoretical routes and times showed good evacuation performance which is encouraging for the next phases of the Heraklion tsunami hazard mitigation program. This is contribution to the EU-FP7 projects ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant no: 604713, 2013) and ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant no: 603839, 2013.

  11. Patient-driven resource planning of a health care facility evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petinaux, Bruno; Yadav, Kabir

    2013-04-01

    The evacuation of a health care facility is a complex undertaking, especially if done in an immediate fashion, ie, within minutes. Patient factors, such as continuous medical care needs, mobility, and comprehension, will affect the efficiency of the evacuation and translate into evacuation resource needs. Prior evacuation resource estimates are 30 years old. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey of charge nurses of the clinical units in an urban, academic, adult trauma health care facility (HCF), the evacuation needs of hospitalized patients were assessed periodically over a two-year period. Survey data were collected on 2,050 patients. Units with patients having low continuous medical care needs during an emergency evacuation were the postpartum, psychiatry, rehabilitation medicine, surgical, and preoperative anesthesia care units, the Emergency Department, and Labor and Delivery Department (with the exception of patients in Stage II labor). Units with patients having high continuous medical care needs during an evacuation included the neonatal and adult intensive care units, special procedures unit, and operating and post-anesthesia care units. With the exception of the neonate group, 908 (47%) of the patients would be able to walk out of the facility, 492 (25.5%) would require a wheelchair, and 530 (27.5%) would require a stretcher to exit the HCF. A total of 1,639 patients (84.9%) were deemed able to comprehend the need to evacuate and to follow directions; the remainder were sedated, blind, or deaf. The charge nurses also determined that 17 (6.9%) of the 248 adult intensive care unit patients were too ill to survive an evacuation, and that in 10 (16.4%) of the 61 ongoing surgery cases, stopping the case was not considered to be safe. Heath care facilities can utilize the results of this study to model their anticipated resource requirements for an emergency evacuation. This will permit the Incident Management Team to mobilize the necessary resources both within

  12. The Hubble constant estimation using 18 gravitational lensing time delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaelani, Anton T.; Premadi, Premana W.

    2014-03-01

    Gravitational lens time delay method has been used to estimate the rate of cosmological expansion, called the Hubble constant, H0, independently of the standard candle method. This gravitational lensing method requires a good knowledge of the lens mass distribution, reconstructed using the lens image properties. The observed positions of the images, and the redshifts of the lens and the images serve as strong constraints to the lens equations, which are then solved as a set of simultaneous linear equations. Here we made use of a non-parametric technique to reconstruct the lens mass distribution, which is manifested in a linear equations solver named PixeLens. Input for the calculation is chosen based on prior known parameters obtained from analyzed result of the lens case observations, including time-delay, position angles of the images and the lens, and their redshifts. In this project, 18 fairly well studied lens cases are further grouped according to a number of common properties to examine how each property affects the character of the data, and therefore affects the calculation of H0. The considered lens case properties are lens morphology, number of image, completeness of time delays, and symmetry of lens mass distribution. Analysis of simulation shows that paucity of constraints on mass distribution of a lens yields wide range value of H0, which reflects the uniqueness of each lens system. Nonetheless, gravitational lens method still yields H0 within an acceptable range of value when compared to those determined by many other methods. Grouping the cases in the above manner allowed us to assess the robustness of PixeLens and thereby use it selectively. In addition, we use glafic, a parametric mass reconstruction solver, to refine the mass distribution of one lens case, as a comparison.

  13. A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengxiao; Zhang, Guijuan; Wang, Mengsi; Lu, Dianjie; Liu, Hong

    2017-10-01

    The current evacuation model does not consider the impact of emotion and personality on crowd evacuation. Thus, there is large difference between evacuation results and the real-life behavior of the crowd. In order to generate more realistic crowd evacuation results, we present a method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation. First, we combine OCEAN (Openness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness) model and SIS (Susceptible Infected Susceptible) model to construct the P-SIS (Personalized SIS) emotional contagion model. The P-SIS model shows the diversity of individuals in crowd effectively. Second, we couple the P-SIS model with the social force model to simulate emotional contagion on crowd evacuation. Finally, the photo-realistic rendering method is employed to obtain the animation of crowd evacuation. Experimental results show that our method can simulate crowd evacuation realistically and has guiding significance for crowd evacuation in the emergency circumstances.

  14. Case series: Bladder clot evacuation using a prostate morcellation device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doersch, Karen M; Navetta, Andrew F; Bird, Erin T; El Tayeb, Marawan M

    2017-07-01

    We sought to provide a technical update on the use of a prostate morcellator device (PMD) to manage organized blood clots of the bladder following laser prostatectomy. Herein, we describe our experience in using the Wolf Piranha morcellator in managing organized bladder blood clots supplemented with a retrospective chart review of the patients in whom this procedure was performed. Six patients, all male with a mean age of 75 ± 8.9 years, had organized bladder clots following either holmium laser enucleation or photoselective vaporization of the prostate managed with a PMD. Clots were recognized based on hematuria or urinary retention a median of 3.5 days following the aforementioned procedures. Initial management was attempted with more conservative measures, including a three-way Foley catheter, followed by cystoscopy with an Ellik evacuator, or a glass Tommey syringe. Morcellation times were a mean of 10.2 ± 6.15 minutes (range 2-18). This technique was able to manage clots that were an average of 173.3 ± 115.9 cc in size. The procedure was well-tolerated. No patients experienced intraoperative or morcellator-related complications. Benign prostatic hypertrophy frequently requires surgical endoscopic management and can be complicated by hematuria and bladder blood clot formation. When these clots become organized, this can lead to urinary retention and the required management, evacuation, may be difficult. The use of a Wolf Piranha PMD is a safe, well-tolerated, and effective in evacuating organized blood clots of the bladder.

  15. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-Hua Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the loss of life and property and to smoothly resume the transport network as soon as possible. This paper considers the dynamic changes of the hazardous chemicals’ concentration after their leakage and simulates the diffusion process. Based on the characteristics of emergency evacuation of hazardous chemical accidents, we build a mixed-integer programming model and design a heuristic algorithm using network optimization and diffusion simulation (hereafter NODS. We then verify the validity and feasibility of the algorithm using Jinan, China, as a computational example. In the end, we compare the results from different scenarios to explore the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the evacuation process.

  16. Community Based Warning and Evacuation System against Debris Flow in the Upper Jeneberang River, Gowa, South Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutikno Hardjosuwarno

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Gigantic collapse of the Caldera wall of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m in March 2004 had supplied the sediment volume of 230 million to the most upper stream of Jeneberang River, which flowed down to the lower reach in the form of debris flow which is triggered by rainfall. The purpose of the research is to provide a system which is able to forecast the occurrence of debris flow, to identify the weak points along the river course, to identify the hazard areas and how to inform effectively and efficiently the warning messages to the inhabitants in the dangerous area by using the existing modern equipment combined with the traditional one. The standard rainfall which is used to judge the occurrence of debris flow was established by Yano method. It is based on the historical data of rainfall that trigger and not trigger to the occurrence of debris flow which is widely used in Japan so far. The hazard area was estimated by Two-Dimensional Simulation Model for debris flow, the debris flow arrival time at each point in the river were estimated by dividing their distance from reference point by debris flow velocity, where the check dam no. 7-1 in Manimbahoi was designated as reference point. The existing evacuation routes were checked by field survey, the strength and coverage of sound for kentongan and manual siren were examined using sound pressure level at the location of the existing monitoring post and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation were evaluated by comparing the warning and evacuation time against the debris flow arrival time. It was resulted that debris flow occurrence was triggered by short duration of high rainfall intensity, long duration of low rainfall intensity and the outbreak of natural dam which is formed by land slide or bank collapses. The hazard area of upper Jeneberang River are mostly located on the river terraces where the local inhabitants earn their living through cultivating the river terraces as paddy fields, dry

  17. Stability over Time of Different Methods of Estimating School Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumay, Xavier; Coe, Rob; Anumendem, Dickson Nkafu

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate how stability varies with the approach used in estimating school performance in a large sample of English primary schools. The results show that (a) raw performance is considerably more stable than adjusted performance, which in turn is slightly more stable than growth model estimates; (b) schools' performance…

  18. Detection probabilities for time-domain velocity estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    1991-01-01

    programs, it is demonstrated that the probability of correct estimation depends on the signal-to-noise ratio, transducer bandwidth, number of A-lines and number of samples used in the correlation estimate. The influence of applying a stationary echo-canceler is explained. The echo canceling can be modeled...

  19. Making Multi-Level Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks Operational in California and Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R. I.; Peterson, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Popham, C.; Richards, K.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2016-12-01

    In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile, 2011 Japan, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis in California and Hawaii, coastal emergency managers requested that state and federal tsunami programs investigate providing more detailed information about the flood potential and recommended evacuation for distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. Evacuation "Playbooks" for tsunamis of variable sizes and source locations have been developed for some communities in the two states, providing secondary options to an all or nothing approach for evacuation. Playbooks have been finalized for nearly 70% of the coastal communities in California, and have been drafted for evaluation by the communities of Honolulu and Hilo in Hawaii. A key component to determining a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami and making the Playbooks operational has been the development of the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the FASTER flood elevation value will be computed and used to select the appropriate minimum tsunami phase evacuation "Playbook" for use by the coastal communities. The states of California and Hawaii, the tsunami warning centers, and local weather service offices are working together to deliver recommendations on the appropriate evacuation Playbook plans for communities to use prior to the arrival of a distant-source tsunami. These partners are working closely with individual communities on developing conservative and consistent protocols on the use of the Playbooks. Playbooks help provide a scientifically-based, minimum response for small- to moderate-size tsunamis which could reduce the potential for over-evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and save hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs for communities and businesses.

  20. An Evacuation Model for Passenger Ships That Includes the Influence of Obstacles in Cabins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baocheng Ni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Passenger behavior and ship environment are the key factors affecting evacuation efficiency. However, current studies ignore the interior layout of passenger ship cabins and treat the cabins as empty rooms. To investigate the influence of obstacles (e.g., tables and stools on cabin evacuation, we propose an agent-based social force model for advanced evacuation analysis of passenger ships; this model uses a goal-driven submodel to determine a plan and an extended social force submodel to govern the movement of passengers. The extended social force submodel considers the interaction forces between the passengers, crew, and obstacles and minimises the range of these forces to improve computational efficiency. We drew the following conclusions based on a series of evacuation simulations conducted in this study: (1 the proposed model endows the passenger with the behaviors of bypassing and crossing obstacles, (2 funnel-shaped exits from cabins can improve evacuation efficiency, and (3 as the exit angle increases, the evacuation time also increases. These findings offer ship designers some insight towards increasing the safety of large passenger ships.

  1. K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyue He

    Full Text Available Emergency evacuation aims to transport people from dangerous places to safe shelters as quickly as possible. Police play an important role in the evacuation process, as they can handle traffic accidents immediately and help people move smoothly on roads. This paper investigates an evacuation routing problem that involves police resource allocation. We propose a novel k-th-shortest-path-based technique that uses explicit congestion control to optimize evacuation routing and police resource allocation. A nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is presented to formulate the problem. The model's objective is to minimize the overall evacuation clearance time. Two algorithms are given to solve the problem. The first one linearizes the original model and solves the linearized problem with CPLEX. The second one is a heuristic algorithm that uses a police resource utilization efficiency index to directly solve the original model. This police resource utilization efficiency index significantly aids in the evaluation of road links from an evacuation throughput perspective. The proposed algorithms are tested with a number of examples based on real data from cities of different sizes. The computational results show that the police resource utilization efficiency index is very helpful in finding near-optimal solutions. Additionally, comparing the performance of the heuristic algorithm and the linearization method by using randomly generated examples indicates that the efficiency of the heuristic algorithm is superior.

  2. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  3. Estimation Accuracy on Execution Time of Run-Time Tasks in a Heterogeneous Distributed Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Distributed Computing has achieved tremendous development since cloud computing was proposed in 2006, and played a vital role promoting rapid growth of data collecting and analysis models, e.g., Internet of things, Cyber-Physical Systems, Big Data Analytics, etc. Hadoop has become a data convergence platform for sensor networks. As one of the core components, MapReduce facilitates allocating, processing and mining of collected large-scale data, where speculative execution strategies help solve straggler problems. However, there is still no efficient solution for accurate estimation on execution time of run-time tasks, which can affect task allocation and distribution in MapReduce. In this paper, task execution data have been collected and employed for the estimation. A two-phase regression (TPR method is proposed to predict the finishing time of each task accurately. Detailed data of each task have drawn interests with detailed analysis report being made. According to the results, the prediction accuracy of concurrent tasks’ execution time can be improved, in particular for some regular jobs.

  4. Clinical evaluation of CT-guided stereotaxic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Masato; Yoshinaga, Shiya; Nakayama, Yoshiya; Hirakawa, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akira; Tomonaga, Masamichi

    1989-01-01

    The clinical results of CT-guided stereotaxic evacuation of hypertensive intracerebral hematomas which had been done in our department during the last 16 months were evaluated. They included 18 cases; 8 of thalamic, 9 of putaminal and one of cerebellar hematoma. The patients were 11 males and 7 females, with an average age of 57. The time interval from oneset to surgery was 1-21 days, 9.5 days on average. The hematoma volume estimated on a CT scan was 6-35 ml and the average rate of hematoma removal by surgery was 75%. Intraoperative monitoring with ultrasonography and postoperative infusion of Urokinase increased the removal rate. In 14 cases, the mental ability and motor function improved within days after surgery and rehabilitation was started within a short period. However, the recovery in aged people was generally poor. Rebleeding occurred postoperatively in one case, necessitating a subsequent craniotomy. (author)

  5. Implementation Of Haversine Formula And Best First Search Method In Searching Of Tsunami Evacuation Route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisya; Yoga Swara, Ganda

    2017-12-01

    Padang is one of the cities prone to earthquake disaster with tsunami due to its position at the meeting of two active plates, this is, a source of potentially powerful earthquake and tsunami. Central government and most offices are located in the red zone (vulnerable areas), it will also affect the evacuation of the population during the earthquake and tsunami disaster. In this study, researchers produced a system of search nearest shelter using best-first-search method. This method uses the heuristic function, the amount of cost taken and the estimated value or travel time, path length and population density. To calculate the length of the path, researchers used method of haversine formula. The value obtained from the calculation process is implemented on a web-based system. Some alternative paths and some of the closest shelters will be displayed in the system.

  6. Only through perturbation can relaxation times be estimated

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Lansky, Petr

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of model parameters is as important as model building, but is often neglected in model studies. Here we show that despite the existence of well known results on parameter estimation in a simple homogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in most practical situations the methods suffer greatly...... on computer experiments based on applications in neuroscience and pharmacokinetics, which show a striking improvement of the quality of estimation. The results are important for judicious designs of experiments to obtain maximal information from each data point, especially when samples are expensive...

  7. Time Domain Frequency Stability Estimation Based On FFT Measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, P

    2004-01-01

    .... In this paper, the biases of the Fast Fourier transform (FFT) spectral estimate with Hanning window are checked and the resulting unbiased spectral density are used to calculate the Allan variance...

  8. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOWS ON INCLINED ROAD DURING EVACUATION PROCESS OF THE VOLCANO DISASTER WITH FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richasanty Septima S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The research in this thesis was done to examine the model of traffic flow of volcanic disaster evacuation path for uphill and downhill roads. The assessment was focused on the area of disaster evacuation path from the Pante Raya Bener Meriah intersection to Takengon. This model is assessed for two different types of time when which a disaster occurs; the disaster occurred at night and the disaster occurred during the day, especially during peak hours (working hours. The model was developed with attention to the exixtence of inflow and outflow along the evacuation route. Furthermore, the model obtained is solved numerically by using finite difference method. The chosen approach of this method is upwind scheme with time and space steps using forward difference and backward difference. The solution of this model in the form of simulated vehicle density along evacuation pathways. The research conducted is in the form of a model of traffic flow on evacuation paths and restricted to the inflow and outflow without alternative path as well as the conditions of the road which are uphill and downhill, showed a high density of vehicles either at night or during the day. Uphill road conditions resulted in decreased vehicle speed and vehicle density will increase, while downhill road conditions resulted in increased vehicle speed and vehicle density will decrease, meaning that the road conditions which are uphill and downhill will greatly affect the process of evacuation. Degree vehicles of evacuation efficiency occuring at night without an alternative pathway produces a high efficiency so that it can be interpreted that the evacuation process in the evening was successful and runs better than the evacuation process during the day, and this is caused by the existence of vehicles on the road evacuation process started thus affecting the efficiency levels.

  9. Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.

    1991-01-01

    The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.

  10. H infinity Integrated Fault Estimation and Fault Tolerant Control of Discrete-time Piecewise Linear Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Bak, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of fault estimation and accommodation for discrete time piecewise linear systems. A robust fault estimator is designed to estimate the fault such that the estimation error converges to zero and H∞ performance of the fault estimation is minimized. Then, the es...

  11. Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both

  12. Deepwater Horizon - Estimating surface oil volume distribution in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehr, B.; Simecek-Beatty, D.; Leifer, I.

    2011-12-01

    Spill responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill required both the relative spatial distribution and total oil volume of the surface oil. The former was needed on a daily basis to plan and direct local surface recovery and treatment operations. The latter was needed less frequently to provide information for strategic response planning. Unfortunately, the standard spill observation methods were inadequate for an oil spill this size, and new, experimental, methods, were not ready to meet the operational demands of near real-time results. Traditional surface oil estimation tools for large spills include satellite-based sensors to define the spatial extent (but not thickness) of the oil, complemented with trained observers in small aircraft, sometimes supplemented by active or passive remote sensing equipment, to determine surface percent coverage of the 'thick' part of the slick, where the vast majority of the surface oil exists. These tools were also applied to DWH in the early days of the spill but the shear size of the spill prevented synoptic information of the surface slick through the use small aircraft. Also, satellite images of the spill, while large in number, varied considerably in image quality, requiring skilled interpretation of them to identify oil and eliminate false positives. Qualified staff to perform this task were soon in short supply. However, large spills are often events that overcome organizational inertia to the use of new technology. Two prime examples in DWH were the application of hyper-spectral scans from a high-altitude aircraft and more traditional fixed-wing aircraft using multi-spectral scans processed by use of a neural network to determine, respectively, absolute or relative oil thickness. But, with new technology, come new challenges. The hyper-spectral instrument required special viewing conditions that were not present on a daily basis and analysis infrastructure to process the data that was not available at the command

  13. Evacuation of bedridden occupants : experimental research outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strating, N.; van Herpen, R.; Zeiler, W.

    2017-01-01

    Bedridden building occupants in hospitals and nursing homes who are not able to rescue themselves in case of a fire emergency require assistance during an evacuation. A building emergency team usually fulfils this function and will have to remove the occupants from the room. The speed at which such

  14. Evacuation Risks: a tentative approach for quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastien, M.C.; Dumas, M.; Laporte, J; Parmentier, N.

    1985-01-01

    This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person-km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 32 10 -8 injuries per person-km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10 -8 injuries per person-km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations

  15. Aeromedical Evacuation: Validating Civil Reserve Air Fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-25

    flight nurses and three medical technicians) is added for AE missions. The aeromedical evacuation crew (AEC) may be pared and tailored as required in... Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice and Science, Volume 5, Number 4, 2007: 319-325. 34 IAT.R 0554 General Accounting Office

  16. An adaptive simulation tool for evacuation scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Formolo, Daniel; van der Wal, C. Natalie

    2017-01-01

    Building useful and efficient models and tools for a varied audience, such as evacuation simulators for scientists, engineers and crisis managers, can be tricky. Even good models can fail in providing information when the user’s tools for the model are scarce of resources. The aim of this work is to

  17. On the validity of time-dependent AUC estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Matthias; Kestler, Hans A; Potapov, Sergej

    2015-01-01

    Recent developments in molecular biology have led to the massive discovery of new marker candidates for the prediction of patient survival. To evaluate the predictive value of these markers, statistical tools for measuring the performance of survival models are needed. We consider estimators of discrimination measures, which are a popular approach to evaluate survival predictions in biomarker studies. Estimators of discrimination measures are usually based on regularity assumptions such as the proportional hazards assumption. Based on two sets of molecular data and a simulation study, we show that violations of the regularity assumptions may lead to over-optimistic estimates of prediction accuracy and may therefore result in biased conclusions regarding the clinical utility of new biomarkers. In particular, we demonstrate that biased medical decision making is possible even if statistical checks indicate that all regularity assumptions are satisfied. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. FIRE EVACUATION FROM HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korol'chenko Aleksandr Yakovlevich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors argue that no collapse of structures is likely in the event of a fire emergency in multistoried buildings, rather, other fire-related factors may endanger the lives of people inside high-rise buildings exposed to the fire emergency, including open fire, sparks, high ambient temperature, smoke and toxic combustion products, reduced concentration of oxygen, and combined influence of various factors. In case of fire, the temperature inside buildings reaches 1100 °С. It exceeds the temperature of the ambient air acceptable for humans by far (70 °С. The experiments demonstrate that combustion products contain hundreds of toxic chemical compounds. The most hazardous of them include carbon oxide, carbon dioxide, chloride and cyanic hydrogen, aldehydes and acrolein. The author provides the pattern of their influence on the human body. The smoke consists of unburned particles of carbon and aerosols. The size of particles fluctuates within 0.05-50 MMK. Smoke produces a physiological and psychological impact on human beings. It has been proven that dangerous fire factors emerge within the first five to ten minutes of the emergency situation. Evacuation is the principal method of safety assurance. However, the velocity of propagation of smoke and heat is so high that even if the fire prevention system is in operation, people may be blocked both on the floors that are exposed to the fire and those that escape its propagation. New evacuation and rescue methods are recommended by the author. Various ways and methods of use of life-saving facilities are also provided. Safe evacuation is feasible from buildings where the number of stories does not exceed 10- 12. During evacuation, high density human streams are formed inside buildings, therefore, the period of stay in a burning building is increased. The calculations have proven that a two-minute delay of evacuation converts into a safe evacuation of only 13-15% of people. Low reliability of

  19. Information of the Home Office for the planning of evacuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This information contains the legal basis, scope and jurisdiction for evacuations in cases of accident. The general evacuation plan must schedule the following: private and public transport, information equipment, supply and care services, evacuation routes and traffic control checkpoints, etc. Particular evacuation plans must be established e.g. for nuclear plants and barrages. The planning is based on a survey of measures represented by a flowchart or a checklist. (HSCH) [de

  20. Real-time Loudspeaker Distance Estimation with Stereo Audio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Heusdens, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on how a number of loudspeakers are positioned relative to a listening position can be used to enhance the listening experience. Usually, these loudspeaker positions are estimated using calibration signals, either audible or psycho-acoustically hidden inside the desired audio signal...

  1. Aircraft industry workers in evacuation: conditions of life of evacuated plants' workers in 1941-1945

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Михаил Юрьевич Мухин

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the work of the factories in 1941-1945 in the evacuation. The author analyzes the living conditions of workers in evacuated aviation plants, their daily life, maintenance, etc. The author concludes that in the early years of the War the conditions of life of the aviation industry's workers were very difficult, and the welfare and financial situation improved in 1944, the sure sign of fracture in the Second world war.

  2. 21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

  3. 21 CFR 876.4370 - Gastroenterology-urology evacuator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. 876.4370... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES GASTROENTEROLOGY-UROLOGY DEVICES Surgical Devices § 876.4370 Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. (a) Identification. A gastroenterology-urology evacuator is a device used to remove...

  4. On the fast estimation of transit times application to BWR simulated data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Marseguerra, M.; Padovani, E.

    1996-01-01

    Real time estimators of transit times are proposed. BWR noise is simulated including a global component due to rod vibration. The time obtained form the simulation is used to investigate the robustness and noise immunity of the estimators. It is found that, in presence of a coincident (global) signal, the cross-correlation function is the worst estimator. (authors)

  5. Estimation of time-delayed mutual information and bias for irregularly and sparsely sampled time-series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albers, D.J.; Hripcsak, George

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Time-delayed mutual information for irregularly sampled time-series. ► Estimation bias for the time-delayed mutual information calculation. ► Fast, simple, PDF estimator independent, time-delayed mutual information bias estimate. ► Quantification of data-set-size limits of the time-delayed mutual calculation. - Abstract: A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be equivalent to the mutual information between two distributions of points from the same system separated by infinite time. Thus intuitively, estimation of the bias is reduced to estimation of the mutual information between distributions of data points separated by large time intervals. The proposed bias estimation techniques are shown to work for Lorenz equations data and glucose time series data of three patients from the Columbia University Medical Center database.

  6. Estimation of time-dependent input from neuronal membrane potential

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kobayashi, R.; Shinomoto, S.; Lánský, Petr

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 12 (2011), s. 3070-3093 ISSN 0899-7667 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC554; GA ČR(CZ) GAP103/11/0282 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : neuronal coding * statistical estimation * Bayes method Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 1.884, year: 2011

  7. An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attali, Yigal

    2010-01-01

    Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…

  8. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Endoscopic hematoma evacuation in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Hsin Wang

    2015-02-01

    Conclusion: With the introduction of the minimally invasive techniques and the evolution of the neuroendoscope and hemostatic agents, the median operative time and blood loss have been significantly decreased. Although the hematoma evacuation rates were similar between the endoscope (90% and craniotomy (85% groups, the median intensive care unit stay was decreased from 11 days to 6 days due to reduced surgical invasiveness. This represents an important advancement in treating spontaneous supratentorial ICH, and provides a measured preview of the promising results that can be expected in the future.

  10. Splitting Travel Time Based on AFC Data: Estimating Walking, Waiting, Transfer, and In-Vehicle Travel Times in Metro System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Sheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route’s travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated.

  11. Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defne, Zafer; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo

    2016-01-01

    Hydrodynamic connectivity describes the sources and destinations of water parcels within a domain over a given time. When combined with biological models, it can be a powerful concept to explain the patterns of constituent dispersal within marine ecosystems. However, providing connectivity metrics for a given domain is a three-dimensional problem: two dimensions in space to define the sources and destinations and a time dimension to evaluate connectivity at varying temporal scales. If the time scale of interest is not predefined, then a general approach is required to describe connectivity over different time scales. For this purpose, we have introduced the concept of a “retention clock” that highlights the change in connectivity through time. Using the example of connectivity between protected areas within Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, we show that a retention clock matrix is an informative tool for multitemporal analysis of connectivity.

  12. Overcoming equifinality: Leveraging long time series for stream metabolism estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appling, Alison; Hall, Robert O.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Arroita, Maite

    2018-01-01

    The foundational ecosystem processes of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) cannot be measured directly but can be modeled in aquatic ecosystems from subdaily patterns of oxygen (O2) concentrations. Because rivers and streams constantly exchange O2 with the atmosphere, models must either use empirical estimates of the gas exchange rate coefficient (K600) or solve for all three parameters (GPP, ER, and K600) simultaneously. Empirical measurements of K600 require substantial field work and can still be inaccurate. Three-parameter models have suffered from equifinality, where good fits to O2 data are achieved by many different parameter values, some unrealistic. We developed a new three-parameter, multiday model that ensures similar values for K600 among days with similar physical conditions (e.g., discharge). Our new model overcomes the equifinality problem by (1) flexibly relating K600 to discharge while permitting moderate daily deviations and (2) avoiding the oft-violated assumption that residuals in O2 predictions are uncorrelated. We implemented this hierarchical state-space model and several competitor models in an open-source R package, streamMetabolizer. We then tested the models against both simulated and field data. Our new model reduces error by as much as 70% in daily estimates of K600, GPP, and ER. Further, accuracy benefits of multiday data sets require as few as 3 days of data. This approach facilitates more accurate metabolism estimates for more streams and days, enabling researchers to better quantify carbon fluxes, compare streams by their metabolic regimes, and investigate controls on aquatic activity.

  13. A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

    2015-01-01

    Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

  14. Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Naser, Arab

    2012-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

  15. Real-Time Tropospheric Delay Estimation using IGS Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stürze, Andrea; Liu, Sha; Söhne, Wolfgang

    2014-05-01

    The Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG) routinely provides zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) parameter for the assimilation in numerical weather models since more than 10 years. Up to now the results flowing into the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) or E-GVAP (EUMETNET EIG GNSS water vapour programme) analysis are based on batch processing of GPS+GLONASS observations in differential network mode. For the recently started COST Action ES1206 about "Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems tropospheric products for monitoring severe weather events and climate" (GNSS4SWEC), however, rapid updates in the analysis of the atmospheric state for nowcasting applications require changing the processing strategy towards real-time. In the RTCM SC104 (Radio Technical Commission for Maritime Services, Special Committee 104) a format combining the advantages of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) is under development. The so-called State Space Representation approach is defining corrections, which will be transferred in real-time to the user e.g. via NTRIP (Network Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol). Meanwhile messages for precise orbits, satellite clocks and code biases compatible to the basic PPP mode using IGS products are defined. Consequently, the IGS Real-Time Service (RTS) was launched in 2013 in order to extend the well-known precise orbit and clock products by a real-time component. Further messages e.g. with respect to ionosphere or phase biases are foreseen. Depending on the level of refinement, so different accuracies up to the RTK level shall be reachable. In co-operation of BKG and the Technical University of Darmstadt the real-time software GEMon (GREF EUREF Monitoring) is under development. GEMon is able to process GPS and GLONASS observation and RTS product data streams in PPP mode. Furthermore, several state-of-the-art troposphere models, for example based on numerical weather prediction data, are implemented. Hence, it

  16. Beyond Newton's Law of Cooling--Estimation of Time since Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinbach, Carl

    2011-01-01

    The estimate of the time since death and, thus, the time of death is strictly that, an estimate. However, the time of death can be an important piece of information in some coroner's cases, especially those that involve criminal or insurance investigations. It has been known almost from the beginning of time that bodies cool after the internal…

  17. time of arrival 3-d position estimation using minimum ads-b receiver ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    The location from which a signal is transmitted can be estimated using the time it takes to be detected at a receiver. The difference between transmission time and the detection time is known as time of arrival (TOA). In this work, an algorithm for 3-dimensional (3-D) position estimation (PE) of an emitter using the minimum ...

  18. The generalized correlation method for estimation of time delay in power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostic, Lj.

    1981-01-01

    The generalized correlation estimation is developed for determining time delay between signals received at two spatially separated sensors in the presence of uncorrelated noise in a power plant. This estimator can be realized as a pair of receiver prefilters followed by a cross correlator. The time argument at which the correlator achieves a maximum is the delay estimate. (author)

  19. Estimation of functional preparedness of young handballers in setup time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Favoritоv V.N.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of level of functional preparedness of young handballers in setup time is shown. It was foreseen to make alteration in educational-training process with the purpose of optimization of their functional preparedness. 11 youths were plugged in research, calendar age 14 - 15 years. For determination of level of their functional preparedness the computer program "SVSM" was applied. It is set that at the beginning of setup time of 18,18% of all respondent functional preparedness is characterized by a "middle" level, 27,27% - below the "average", 54,54% - "above" the average. At the end of setup time among sportsmen representatives prevailed with the level of functional preparedness "above" average - 63,63%, with level "high" - 27,27%, sportsmen with level below the average were not observed. Efficiency of the offered system of trainings employments for optimization of functional preparedness of young handballers is well-proven.

  20. Time and space variability of spectral estimates of atmospheric pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canavero, Flavio G.; Einaudi, Franco

    1987-01-01

    The temporal and spatial behaviors of atmospheric pressure spectra over the northern Italy and the Alpine massif were analyzed using data on surface pressure measurements carried out at two microbarograph stations in the Po Valley, one 50 km south of the Alps, the other in the foothills of the Dolomites. The first 15 days of the study overlapped with the Alpex Intensive Observation Period. The pressure records were found to be intrinsically nonstationary and were found to display substantial time variability, implying that the statistical moments depend on time. The shape and the energy content of spectra depended on different time segments. In addition, important differences existed between spectra obtained at the two stations, indicating a substantial effect of topography, particularly for periods less than 40 min.

  1. [Organization of anesthesia management and advanced life support at military medical evacuation levels].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shchegolev, A V; Petrakov, V A; Savchenko, I F

    2014-07-01

    Anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels in armed conflict (local war) is time-consuming and resource-requiring task. One of the mathematical modeling methods was used to evaluate capabilities of anesthesia and intensive care units at tactical level. Obtained result allows us to tell that there is a need to make several system changes of the existing system of anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels. In addition to increasing number of staff of anesthesiology-critical care during the given period of time another solution should be the creation of an early evacuation to a specialized medical care level by special means while conducting intensive monitoring and treatment.

  2. Evacuation behavior and Three Mile Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutter, S; Barnes, K

    1982-06-01

    The responses of the residents to the nuclear power plant arcident at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania illustrate the factors influencing pre-impact coping responses of populations exposed to technological hazards. Confusion itnd ambiguous information influenced both the decision to evaluate and to remain in place. Proximity to the facility, stage in life cycle and the actions of friends and neighbors influenced the decision to evacuate.

  3. Cellular automaton model of crowd evacuation inspired by slime mould

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeiton, V. S.; Papadopoulos, D. P.; Georgilas, I. P.; Sirakoulis, G. Ch.; Adamatzky, A. I.

    2015-04-01

    In all the living organisms, the self-preservation behaviour is almost universal. Even the most simple of living organisms, like slime mould, is typically under intense selective pressure to evolve a response to ensure their evolution and safety in the best possible way. On the other hand, evacuation of a place can be easily characterized as one of the most stressful situations for the individuals taking part on it. Taking inspiration from the slime mould behaviour, we are introducing a computational bio-inspired model crowd evacuation model. Cellular Automata (CA) were selected as a fully parallel advanced computation tool able to mimic the Physarum's behaviour. In particular, the proposed CA model takes into account while mimicking the Physarum foraging process, the food diffusion, the organism's growth, the creation of tubes for each organism, the selection of optimum tube for each human in correspondence to the crowd evacuation under study and finally, the movement of all humans at each time step towards near exit. To test the model's efficiency and robustness, several simulation scenarios were proposed both in virtual and real-life indoor environments (namely, the first floor of office building B of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering of Democritus University of Thrace). The proposed model is further evaluated in a purely quantitative way by comparing the simulation results with the corresponding ones from the bibliography taken by real data. The examined fundamental diagrams of velocity-density and flow-density are found in full agreement with many of the already published corresponding results proving the adequacy, the fitness and the resulting dynamics of the model. Finally, several real Physarum experiments were conducted in an archetype of the aforementioned real-life environment proving at last that the proposed model succeeded in reproducing sufficiently the Physarum's recorded behaviour derived from observation of the aforementioned

  4. Real-time Wind Profile Estimation using Airborne Sensors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    In 't Veld, A.C.; De Jong, P.M.A.; Van Paassen, M.M.; Mulder, M.

    2011-01-01

    Wind is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in continuous descent approach operations. Especially when aircraft that are flying low or idle thrust approaches are issued a required time of arrival over the runway threshold, as is foreseen in some of the future ATC scenarios, the on-board

  5. Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

    2018-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

  6. A simple data fusion method for instantaneous travel time estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Do, Michael; Pueboobpaphan, R.; Miska, Marc; Kuwahara, Masao; van Arem, Bart; Viegas, J.M.; Macario, R.

    2010-01-01

    Travel time is one of the most understandable parameters to describe traffic condition and an important input to many intelligent transportation systems applications. Direct measurement from Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) system is promising but the data arrives too late, only after the vehicles

  7. Nuclear criticality evacuation with telemonitoring and microprocessors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergus, R.W.; Moe, H.J. Sr.

    1979-01-01

    At Argonne National Laboratory, criticality alarms are required at widely separated locations to evacuate personnel in case of accident while emergency teams or maintenance personnel respond from a central location. The system functions have been divided in a similar manner. The alarm site hardware can independently detect a criticality and sound the evacuation signal while general monitoring and routine tests are handled by a communication link to a central monitoring station. The radiation detectors and evacuation sounders at each site are interconnected by a common two conductor cable in a unique telemonitoring format. This format allows both control and data information to be received or transmitted at any point on the cable which can be up to 3000 meters total length. The site microprocessor maintains a current data table, detects several faults, drives a printer, and communicates with the central telemonitoring station. The radiation detectors are made with plastic scintillators and photomultiplier tubes operated in a constant current mode with a 4 decade measurement range. The detectors also respond within microseconds to the criticality radiation burst. These characteristics can be tested with an internal light emitting diode either completely with a manual procedure or routinely with a system test initiated by the central monitoring station. Although the system was developed for a criticality alarm which requires reliable and redundant features, the basic techniques are useable for other monitoring and instrumentation applications

  8. Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

    2016-02-01

    Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

  9. Estimating retention potential of headwater catchment using Tritium time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Harald; Cartwright, Ian; Morgenstern, Uwe

    2018-06-01

    Headwater catchments provide substantial streamflow to rivers even during long periods of drought. Documenting the mean transit times (MTT) of stream water in headwater catchments and therefore the retention capacities of these catchments is crucial for water management. This study uses time series of 3H activities in combination with major ion concentrations, stable isotope ratios and radon activities (222Rn) in the Lyrebird Creek catchment in Victoria, Australia to provide a unique insight into the mean transit time distributions and flow systems of this small temperate headwater catchment. At all streamflows, the stream has 3H activities (water in the stream is derived from stores with long transit times. If the water in the catchment can be represented by a single store with a continuum of ages, mean transit times of the stream water range from ∼6 up to 40 years, which indicates the large retention potential for this catchment. Alternatively, variations of 3H activities, stable isotopes and major ions can be explained by mixing between of young recent recharge and older water stored in the catchment. While surface runoff is negligible, the variation in stable isotope ratios, major ion concentrations and radon activities during most of the year is minimal (±12%) and only occurs during major storm events. This suggests that different subsurface water stores are activated during the storm events and that these cease to provide water to the stream within a few days or weeks after storm events. The stores comprise micro and macropore flow in the soils and saprolite as well as the boundary between the saprolite and the fractured bed rock. Hydrograph separations from three major storm events using Tritium, electrical conductivity and selected major ions as well a δ18O suggest a minimum of 50% baseflow at most flow conditions. We demonstrate that headwater catchments can have a significant storage capacity and that the relationship between long-water stores and

  10. Estimating Time To Complete for ATLAS data transfers

    CERN Document Server

    Bogado Garcia, Joaquin Ignacio; The ATLAS collaboration; Monticelli, Fernando

    2018-01-01

    Transfer Time To Complete (T³C) is a new extension for the data management system Rucio that allows to make predictions about the duration of a file transfer. The extension has a modular architecture which allows to make predictions based on simple to more sophisticated models, depending on available data and computation power. The ability to predict file transfer times with reasonable accuracy provides a tool for better transfer scheduling  and thus reduces both the load on storage systems and the associated networks. The accuracy of the model requires fine tuning for its parameters on a link basis. As the underlying infrastructure varies depending on the source and destination of the transfer, the parameters modelling the network between these sites will also be studied.

  11. Estimation of Curve Tracing Time in Supercapacitor based PV Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu Pal, Sudipta; Das Bhattacharya, Konika; Mukherjee, Dipankar; Paul, Debkalyan

    2017-08-01

    Smooth and noise-free characterisation of photovoltaic (PV) generators have been revisited with renewed interest in view of large size PV arrays making inroads into the urban sector of major developing countries. Such practice has recently been observed to be confronted by the use of a suitable data acquisition system and also the lack of a supporting theoretical analysis to justify the accuracy of curve tracing. However, the use of a selected bank of supercapacitors can mitigate the said problems to a large extent. Assuming a piecewise linear analysis of the V-I characteristics of a PV generator, an accurate analysis of curve plotting time has been possible. The analysis has been extended to consider the effect of equivalent series resistance of the supercapacitor leading to increased accuracy (90-95%) of curve plotting times.

  12. Estimation of Hurst Exponent for the Financial Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, J.; Manchanda, P.

    2009-07-01

    Till recently statistical methods and Fourier analysis were employed to study fluctuations in stock markets in general and Indian stock market in particular. However current trend is to apply the concepts of wavelet methodology and Hurst exponent, see for example the work of Manchanda, J. Kumar and Siddiqi, Journal of the Frankline Institute 144 (2007), 613-636 and paper of Cajueiro and B. M. Tabak. Cajueiro and Tabak, Physica A, 2003, have checked the efficiency of emerging markets by computing Hurst component over a time window of 4 years of data. Our goal in the present paper is to understand the dynamics of the Indian stock market. We look for the persistency in the stock market through Hurst exponent and fractal dimension of time series data of BSE 100 and NIFTY 50.

  13. Real-time estimation of wildfire perimeters from curated crowdsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xu; Duckham, Matt; Chong, Derek; Tolhurst, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Real-time information about the spatial extents of evolving natural disasters, such as wildfire or flood perimeters, can assist both emergency responders and the general public during an emergency. However, authoritative information sources can suffer from bottlenecks and delays, while user-generated social media data usually lacks the necessary structure and trustworthiness for reliable automated processing. This paper describes and evaluates an automated technique for real-time tracking of wildfire perimeters based on publicly available “curated” crowdsourced data about telephone calls to the emergency services. Our technique is based on established data mining tools, and can be adjusted using a small number of intuitive parameters. Experiments using data from the devastating Black Saturday wildfires (2009) in Victoria, Australia, demonstrate the potential for the technique to detect and track wildfire perimeters automatically, in real time, and with moderate accuracy. Accuracy can be further increased through combination with other authoritative demographic and environmental information, such as population density and dynamic wind fields. These results are also independently validated against data from the more recent 2014 Mickleham-Dalrymple wildfires.

  14. Social influence in a virtual tunnel fire--influence of conflicting information on evacuation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinateder, Max; Müller, Mathias; Jost, Michael; Mühlberger, Andreas; Pauli, Paul

    2014-11-01

    Evacuation from a smoke filled tunnel requires quick decision-making and swift action from the tunnel occupants. Technical installations such as emergency signage aim to guide tunnel occupants to the closest emergency exits. However, conflicting information may come from the behavior of other tunnel occupants. We examined if and how conflicting social information may affect evacuation in terms of delayed and/or inadequate evacuation decisions and behaviors. To this end, forty participants were repeatedly situated in a virtual reality smoke filled tunnel with an emergency exit visible to one side of the participants. Four social influence conditions were realized. In the control condition participants were alone in the tunnel, while in the other three experimental conditions a virtual agent (VA) was present. In the no-conflict condition, the VA moved to the emergency exit. In the active conflict condition, the VA moved in the opposite direction of the emergency exit. In the passive conflict condition, the VA stayed passive. Participants were less likely to move to the emergency exit in the conflict conditions compared to the no-conflict condition. Pre-movement and movement times in the passive conflict condition were significantly delayed compared to all other conditions. Participants moved the longest distances in the passive conflict condition. These results support the hypothesis that social influence affects evacuation behavior, especially passive behavior of others can thwart an evacuation to safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  15. Improving The Accuracy Of Bluetooth Based Travel Time Estimation Using Low-Level Sensor Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Tørholm Christensen, Lars; Krishnan, Rajesh

    2013-01-01

    triggered by a single device. This could lead to location ambiguity and reduced accuracy of travel time estimation. Therefore, the accuracy of travel time estimations by Bluetooth Technology (BT) depends upon how location ambiguity is handled by the estimation method. The issue of multiple detection events...... in the context of travel time estimation by BT has been considered by various researchers. However, treatment of this issue has remained simplistic so far. Most previous studies simply used the first detection event (Enter-Enter) as the best estimate. No systematic analysis for exploring the most accurate method...... of estimating travel time using multiple detection events has been conducted. In this study different aspects of BT detection zone, including size and its impact on the accuracy of travel time estimation, are discussed. Moreover, four alternative methods are applied; namely, Enter-Enter, Leave-Leave, Peak...

  16. Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai; Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

    2016-01-01

    On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods.

  17. Timing Metrics of Joint Timing and Carrier-Frequency Offset Estimation Algorithms for TDD-based OFDM systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoeksema, F.W.; Srinivasan, R.; Schiphorst, Roelof; Slump, Cornelis H.

    2004-01-01

    In joint timing and carrier offset estimation algorithms for Time Division Duplexing (TDD) OFDM systems, different timing metrics are proposed to determine the beginning of a burst or symbol. In this contribution we investigated the different timing metrics in order to establish their impact on the

  18. Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2012-12-01

    In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication

  19. A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yu; Wang, Weijie; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Yanfeng; Yang, Yuanjian

    2014-01-01

    Conducting a real aircraft evacuation trial is oftentimes unaffordable as it is extremely expensive and may cause severe injury to participants. Simulation models as an alternative have been used to overcome the aforementioned issues in recent years. This paper proposes a new simulation model for emergency evacuation of civil aircraft. Its unique features and advantages over the existing models are twofold: (1) passengers' critical physical characteristics, e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, which impact the movement and egress time of individual evacuee from a statistical viewpoint, are taken into account in the new model. (2) Improvements are made to enhance the accuracy of the simulation model from three aspects. First, the staggered mesh discretization method together with the agent-based approach is utilized to simulate movements of individual passengers in an emergency evacuation process. Second, each node discretized to represent cabin space in the new model can contain more than one passenger if they are moving in the same direction. Finally, each individual passenger is able to change his/her evacuation route in a real-time manner based upon the distance from the current position to the target exit and the queue length. The effectiveness of the proposed simulation model is demonstrated on Boeing 767-300 aircraft. - Highlights: • A new simulation model of aircraft emergency evacuation is developed. • Some critical physical characteristics of passengers', e.g. waist size, gender, age, and disabilities, are taken into account in the new model. • An agent-based approach along with a multi-level fine network representation is used. • Passengers are able to change their evacuation routes in a real-time manner based upon distance and length of queue

  20. Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

    2001-09-01

    We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

  1. [Phylogeny and divergence time estimation of Schizothoracinae fishes in Xinjiang].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayelhan, Haysa; Guo, Yan; Meng, Wei; Yang, Tianyan; Ma, Yanwu

    2014-10-01

    Based on combined data of mitochondrial COI, ND4 and 16S RNA genes, molecular phylogeny of 4 genera, 10 species or subspecies of Schizothoracinae fishes distributed in Xinjiang were analyzed. The molecular clock was calibrated by divergence time of Cyprininae and geological segregation event between the upper Yellow River and Qinghai Lake. Divergence time of Schizothoracinae fishes was calculated, and its relationship with the major geological events and the climate changes in surrounding areas of Tarim Basin was discussed. The results showed that genus Aspiorhynchus did not form an independent clade, but clustered with Schizothorax biddulphi and S. irregularis. Kimura 2-parameter model was used to calculate the genetic distance of COI gene, the genetic distance between genus Aspiorhynchus and Schizothorax did not reach genus level, and Aspiorhynchus laticeps might be a specialized species of genus Schizothorax. Cluster analysis showed a different result with morphological classification method, and it did not support the subgenus division of Schizothorax fishes. Divergence of two groups of primitive Schizothoracinae (8.18Ma) and divergence of Gymnodiptychus dybowskii and Diptychus maculates (7.67Ma) occurred in late Miocene, which might be related with the separation of Kunlun Mountain and north Tianshan Mountain River system that was caused by the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Tianshan Mountain, and the aridification of Tarim Basin. The terrain of Tarim Basin that was affected by Quaternary Himalayan movement was high in west but low in east, as a result, Lop Nor became the center of surrounding mountain rivers in Tarim Basin, which shaped the distribution pattern of genus Schizothorax.

  2. Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Kvist, Kajsa; Hartvig, Helle

    2002-01-01

    A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times....

  3. Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Liu, Hong; Qin, Xin; Liu, Baoxi

    2018-02-01

    Studies of crowd behavior with related research on computer simulation provide an effective basis for architectural design and effective crowd management. Based on low-density group organization patterns, a modified two-layer social force model is proposed in this paper to simulate and reproduce a group gathering process. First, this paper studies evacuation videos from the Luan'xian earthquake in 2012, and extends the study of group organization patterns to a higher density. Furthermore, taking full advantage of the strength in crowd gathering simulations, a new method on grouping and guidance is proposed while using crowd dynamics. Second, a real-life grouping situation in earthquake evacuation is simulated and reproduced. Comparing with the fundamental social force model and existing guided crowd model, the modified model reduces congestion time and truly reflects group behaviors. Furthermore, the experiment result also shows that a stable group pattern and a suitable leader could decrease collision and allow a safer evacuation process.

  4. Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reniers, G L L; Audenaert, A; Pauwels, N; Soudan, K

    2011-02-15

    This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Providing many results of evacuation simulation around a nuclear power plant and its speedy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Shoji; Nagase, Shinichiro; Ino, Masanori

    1990-01-01

    According to the peculiar situation around nuclear power plant in Japan, many results of evacuation simulation in that the public buses and family cars were used together have being obtained by a super computer. These were comprised of the time dependence of the number of residents and vehicles at the exit and starting points, and traffic jam datas at each intersection on the evacuation roads. Also, exposed dose for each group of the residents were calculated in case of Xe and I-131 release. The retrieval system was applied for selecting the indispensable data from many results, and in order to see data on the display screen, the graphic system was provided. (author)

  6. Street Lighting Infrastructure Assessment Using Discriminant and GIS Method on Mount Merapi Evacuation Road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izdihar, R. P.; Maryono, M.; Widjonarko, W.; Rahayu, S.

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to assess street lighting infrastructure in rural-urban of Mount Merapi Evacuation road. Three evacuation road/corridor; Mriyan-Boyolali, Wonodoyo-Boyolali and Samiran-Boyolali are selected as case study. By using discriminant this study examine 6 variables namely type of lamp, physical component, height, time, power and cons consumption. In addition this study also using GIS method to assessing geographical feature as of previous result. According to the discriminant analysis, the characteristic of street lighting could be distinguished as two characteristic, while from the GIS assessment, the study found three characteristic of geographical street lighting feature.

  7. [Association between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity in Great East Japan Earthquake evacuees: The Fukushima Health Management Survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagai, Masato; Ohira, Tetsuya; Yasumura, Seiji; Takahashi, Hideto; Yuki, Michiko; Nakano, Hironori; Wen, Zhang; Yabe, Hirooki; Ohtsuru, Akira; Maeda, Masaharu; Takase, Kanae

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Prevalence of life-style disease has increased dramatically in evacuees due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. One reason may be that physical activity level decreased from life environment changes due to evacuation. However, associations between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity have not been studied. We examined this association in Fukushima residents who participated in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods: In this study, 37,843 evacuees from 13 municipal evacuation zones from the nuclear-power accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, born before April 1, 1995, were included in the analysis. Evacuation condition was defined by disaster living place (13 zones), evacuation place (inside or outside the prefecture), and current living status (evacuation shelter or temporary housing, rental housing/ apartment, and relative's home or own home). Habitual physical activity was defined from self-administered questionnaires as participants who responded "almost every day" and "2-4 times/week" of regular exercise. In the analysis, habitual physical activity prevalence was aggregated by gender and variables (living place in the disaster, evacuation place, and current living status). Prevalence was adjusted for age, disaster living place, evacuation place, and current living status by standard analysis of covariance methods. Results: Adjusted prevalences of habitual physical activity were: men, 27.9-46.5%; women, 27.0-43.7% in each disaster living place. The differences were 18.6% point in men and 16.7% point in women. For evacuation place, physical activity outside the prefecture for men (37.7%) and inside the prefecture for women (32.1%) were higher, but those differences were only 2.2% point and 1.8% point in men and women, respectively. For current living status, physical activity of those in rental housing/ apartment was the lowest; evacuation shelter or temporary housing was the highest in both genders (men: 38

  8. A theory of timing in scintillation counters based on maximum likelihood estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomitani, Takehiro

    1982-01-01

    A theory of timing in scintillation counters based on the maximum likelihood estimation is presented. An optimum filter that minimizes the variance of timing is described. A simple formula to estimate the variance of timing is presented as a function of photoelectron number, scintillation decay constant and the single electron transit time spread in the photomultiplier. The present method was compared with the theory by E. Gatti and V. Svelto. The proposed method was applied to two simple models and rough estimations of potential time resolution of several scintillators are given. The proposed method is applicable to the timing in Cerenkov counters and semiconductor detectors as well. (author)

  9. Assessment of total evacuation systems for tall buildings

    CERN Document Server

    Ronchi, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief focuses on the use of egress models to assess the optimal strategy for total evacuation in high-rise buildings. It investigates occupant relocation and evacuation strategies involving the exit stairs, elevators, sky bridges and combinations thereof. Chapters review existing information on this topic and describe case study simulations of a multi-component exit strategy. This review provides the architectural design, regulatory and research communities with a thorough understanding of the current and emerging evacuation procedures and possible future options. A model case study simulates seven possible strategies for the total evacuation of two identical twin towers linked with two sky-bridges at different heights. The authors present the layout of the building and the available egress components including both vertical and horizontal egress components, namely stairs, occupant evacuation elevators (OEEs), service elevators, transfer floors and sky-bridges. The evacuation strategies employ a ...

  10. Bulkhead Door – Critical Evacuation States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flizikowski Józef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is a preliminary to a modification concept of the sliding watertight bulkhead door used on ships and vessels. Hydraulic or electro-hydraulic drives used to move these doors require complicated and extended pressure installations with large amounts of hydraulic fluid. Well-known operational drawbacks of these installations include high level of noise and possibility of various leaks in the hydraulic system. Being the first in a series, the present article describes and analyses critical states which can take place during evacuation of people through openings in the watertight bulkhead doors on seagoing ships and vessels.

  11. Face to phase: pitfalls in time delay estimation from coherency phase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campfens, S.F.; van der Kooij, Herman; Schouten, Alfred Christiaan

    2014-01-01

    Coherency phase is often interpreted as a time delay reflecting a transmission delay between spatially separated neural populations. However, time delays estimated from corticomuscular coherency are conflicting and often shorter than expected physiologically. Recent work suggests that

  12. Freeway travel time estimation using existing fixed traffic sensors : phase 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Travel time, one of the most important freeway performance metrics, can be easily estimated using the : data collected from fixed traffic sensors, avoiding the need to install additional travel time data collectors. : This project is aimed at fully u...

  13. DOTD support for UTC project : travel time estimation using bluetooth, [research project capsule].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Travel time estimates are useful tools for measuring congestion in an urban area. Current : practice involves using probe vehicles or video cameras to measure travel time, but this is a laborintensive and expensive means of obtaining the information....

  14. Improving value of travel time savings estimation for more effective transportation project evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    Estimates of value of time (VOT) and value of travel time savings (VTTS) are critical elements in benefitcost : analyses of transportation projects and in developing congestion pricing policies. In addition, : differences in VTTS among various modes ...

  15. Methodology for Time-Domain Estimation of Storm-Time Electric Fields Using the 3D Earth Impedance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelbert, A.; Balch, C. C.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Egbert, G. D.; Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Fujii, I.

    2016-12-01

    Magnetic storms can induce geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting interior, interfering with the operations of electric-power grid industry. The ability to estimate these electric fields at Earth's surface in close to real-time and to provide local short-term predictions would improve the ability of the industry to protect their operations. At any given time, the electric field at the Earth's surface is a function of the time-variant magnetic activity (driven by the solar wind), and the local electrical conductivity structure of the Earth's crust and mantle. For this reason, implementation of an operational electric field estimation service requires an interdisciplinary, collaborative effort between space science, real-time space weather operations, and solid Earth geophysics. We highlight in this talk an ongoing collaboration between USGS, NOAA, NASA, Oregon State University, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, to develop algorithms that can be used for scenario analyses and which might be implemented in a real-time, operational setting. We discuss the development of a time domain algorithm that employs discrete time domain representation of the impedance tensor for a realistic 3D Earth, known as the discrete time impulse response (DTIR), convolved with the local magnetic field time series, to estimate the local electric field disturbances. The algorithm is validated against measured storm-time electric field data collected in the United States and Japan. We also discuss our plans for operational real-time electric field estimation using 3D Earth impedances.

  16. Estimation of feeding patterns for piscivorous fish using individual prey data from stomach contents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Temming, Axel

    2011-01-01

    The problem of estimating temporal feeding patterns using stomach data is considered, where the time of ingestion for each prey item can be predicted through a gastric evacuation model. The arrival of prey is modelled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with known periodic intensity. A maximum...

  17. Evaluation of the National Concept Traffic Management for mass evacuation in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso, K.; van Zuilekom, Kasper M.; Kolen, B.

    2011-01-01

    It is impossible to execute a complete and total preventive evacuation of coastal areas in the Netherlands within the available 48-hour time span in case of a storm surge. This is mainly due to the limitations of the road capacity in proportion to the number of inhabitants in the threatened area. A

  18. Appendicostomy irrigation for facilitating colonic evacuation in colostomy patients. Preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotanagi, H; Koyama, K; Sato, Y; Takahashi, K

    1998-08-01

    A method for bowel irrigation through an appendicostomy (antegrade colonic enema) for patients with a left colostomy is described. The appendicostomy is easily constructed without morbidity. Irrigation through the appendicostomy is performed with minimum equipment, uses a small volume of irrigation water, and takes a relatively short time. This may improve colonic evacuation in patients with left colostomy.

  19. Predicting delay in residents' decisions on defending v. evacuating through antecedents of decision avoidance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNeill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2015-01-01

    Journal compilation © IAWF 2015. In the event of a wildfire, Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas have a choice to defend their home or evacuate early. However, rather than deciding on and preparing for one of these fire-responses ahead of time, most residents delay deciding on defending ...

  20. A test of alternative estimators for volume at time 1 from remeasured point samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis A. Roesch; Edwin J. Green; Charles T. Scott

    1993-01-01

    Two estimators for volume at time 1 for use with permanent horizontal point samples are evaluated. One estimator, used traditionally, uses only the trees sampled at time 1, while the second estimator, originally presented by Roesch and coauthors (F.A. Roesch, Jr., E.J. Green, and C.T. Scott. 1989. For. Sci. 35(2):281-293). takes advantage of additional sample...

  1. Ab initio quantum-enhanced optical phase estimation using real-time feedback control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berni, Adriano; Gehring, Tobias; Nielsen, Bo Melholt

    2015-01-01

    of a quantum-enhanced and fully deterministic ab initio phase estimation protocol based on real-time feedback control. Using robust squeezed states of light combined with a real-time Bayesian adaptive estimation algorithm, we demonstrate deterministic phase estimation with a precision beyond the quantum shot...... noise limit. The demonstrated protocol opens up new opportunities for quantum microscopy, quantum metrology and quantum information processing....

  2. Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, D.; Daamen, W.; Goverde, R.M.P.

    2015-01-01

    Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations mainly due to the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. For reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines it is however necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell

  3. Time Estimation in Alzheimer's Disease and the Role of the Central Executive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagno, Costanza; Allegra, Adele; Cardaci, Maurizio

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of short-term memory and attention in time estimation. For this purpose we studied prospective time verbal estimation in 21 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), and compared their performance with that of 21 matched normal controls in two different conditions: during a digit span task and during an…

  4. Access to destinations : arterial data acquisition and network-wide travel time estimation (phase II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    The objectives of this project were to (a) produce historic estimates of travel times on Twin-Cities arterials : for 1995 and 2005, and (b) develop an initial architecture and database that could, in the future, produce timely : estimates of arterial...

  5. Accurate Lithium-ion battery parameter estimation with continuous-time system identification methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Bing; Zhao, Xin; Callafon, Raymond de; Garnier, Hugues; Nguyen, Truong; Mi, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Continuous-time system identification is applied in Lithium-ion battery modeling. • Continuous-time and discrete-time identification methods are compared in detail. • The instrumental variable method is employed to further improve the estimation. • Simulations and experiments validate the advantages of continuous-time methods. - Abstract: The modeling of Lithium-ion batteries usually utilizes discrete-time system identification methods to estimate parameters of discrete models. However, in real applications, there is a fundamental limitation of the discrete-time methods in dealing with sensitivity when the system is stiff and the storage resolutions are limited. To overcome this problem, this paper adopts direct continuous-time system identification methods to estimate the parameters of equivalent circuit models for Lithium-ion batteries. Compared with discrete-time system identification methods, the continuous-time system identification methods provide more accurate estimates to both fast and slow dynamics in battery systems and are less sensitive to disturbances. A case of a 2"n"d-order equivalent circuit model is studied which shows that the continuous-time estimates are more robust to high sampling rates, measurement noises and rounding errors. In addition, the estimation by the conventional continuous-time least squares method is further improved in the case of noisy output measurement by introducing the instrumental variable method. Simulation and experiment results validate the analysis and demonstrate the advantages of the continuous-time system identification methods in battery applications.

  6. Bayesian Nonparametric Mixture Estimation for Time-Indexed Functional Data in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terrance D. Savitsky

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available We present growfunctions for R that offers Bayesian nonparametric estimation models for analysis of dependent, noisy time series data indexed by a collection of domains. This data structure arises from combining periodically published government survey statistics, such as are reported in the Current Population Study (CPS. The CPS publishes monthly, by-state estimates of employment levels, where each state expresses a noisy time series. Published state-level estimates from the CPS are composed from household survey responses in a model-free manner and express high levels of volatility due to insufficient sample sizes. Existing software solutions borrow information over a modeled time-based dependence to extract a de-noised time series for each domain. These solutions, however, ignore the dependence among the domains that may be additionally leveraged to improve estimation efficiency. The growfunctions package offers two fully nonparametric mixture models that simultaneously estimate both a time and domain-indexed dependence structure for a collection of time series: (1 A Gaussian process (GP construction, which is parameterized through the covariance matrix, estimates a latent function for each domain. The covariance parameters of the latent functions are indexed by domain under a Dirichlet process prior that permits estimation of the dependence among functions across the domains: (2 An intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field prior construction provides an alternative to the GP that expresses different computation and estimation properties. In addition to performing denoised estimation of latent functions from published domain estimates, growfunctions allows estimation of collections of functions for observation units (e.g., households, rather than aggregated domains, by accounting for an informative sampling design under which the probabilities for inclusion of observation units are related to the response variable. growfunctions includes plot

  7. Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sase, Takumi; Ramírez, Jonatán Peña; Kitajo, Keiichi; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito

    2016-01-01

    We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.

  8. Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sase, Takumi, E-mail: sase@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Ramírez, Jonatán Peña [CONACYT Research Fellow, Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada (CICESE), Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918, Zona Playitas, C.P. 22860, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico); Kitajo, Keiichi [BSI-Toyota Collaboration Center, RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2016-03-11

    We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.

  9. Radioactive waste evacuation of the sources of a low dose rate brachytherapy unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serrada, A.; Huerga, C.; Santa Olalla, I.; Vicedo, A.; Corredoira, E.; Plaza, R.; Vidal, J.; Tellez, M.

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The second class Radioactive Installation start -up authorization makes responsible for its security to the installation exploiter and supervisor. The specifications established in the authorization, which are mandatory, point out several actions, some of these actions are the hermeticity tests of radioactive sources an radiologic controls of environment dosimetry. It is necessary to optimize the time spent in each activity, managing them as reasonably as possible. An important matter to take into account is to keep and control only those radioactive or radiological equipment which, even if are in work, have an appropriate performance for the patient treatment Material And Method a Paz hospital has an intracavity brachytherapy (L.D.R.), Curietron model. The Radioprotection Department proposed to remove from service the unit due to its age, this was carried out by the Commission of Guarantee and Quality Control. There were different solutions taken into account to decommission the unit, finally the option chosen as the most convenient for the installation was to manage directly the withdrawal of the radioactive material which consisted of seven Cs-137 probes model CsM1 and total nominal certificated activity of 7770 MBq ( 210 mCi ) dated in May 2005. It also has to be considered as a radioactive waste the inner storage elements of the Curietron and the transport and storage curie stock, built with depleted uranium. To accomplish this aim an evacuation container was designed consisting of an alloy of low-melting point (M.C.P.96), which fulfills the transport conditions imposed by E.N.R.E.S.A. ( Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radiactivos, S.A). A theoretical calculation was performed to estimate the thickness of the shield which adequate to the rate of dose in contact demanded. Accuracy of these calculations has been verified using T.L. dosimetry. Results The radiation levels during the extraction intervention of the radioactive probes and its transfer to

  10. Using linear time-invariant system theory to estimate kinetic parameters directly from projection measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, G.L.; Gullberg, G.T.

    1995-01-01

    It is common practice to estimate kinetic parameters from dynamically acquired tomographic data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of three-dimensional reconstructions and then fitting the parameters to time activity curves generated from the time-varying reconstructed images. However, in SPECT, the pharmaceutical distribution can change during the acquisition of a complete tomographic data set, which can bias the estimated kinetic parameters. It is hypothesized that more accurate estimates of the kinetic parameters can be obtained by fitting to the projection measurements instead of the reconstructed time sequence. Estimation from projections requires the knowledge of their relationship between the tissue regions of interest or voxels with particular kinetic parameters and the project measurements, which results in a complicated nonlinear estimation problem with a series of exponential factors with multiplicative coefficients. A technique is presented in this paper where the exponential decay parameters are estimated separately using linear time-invariant system theory. Once the exponential factors are known, the coefficients of the exponentials can be estimated using linear estimation techniques. Computer simulations demonstrate that estimation of the kinetic parameters directly from the projections is more accurate than the estimation from the reconstructed images

  11. Evacuate or Shelter-in-place? The Role of Corporate Memory and Political Environment in Hospital-evacuation Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Karen A; Griffin, Anne R; Heslin, Kevin C; Kranke, Derrick; Dobalian, Aram

    2015-06-01

    Hospital-evacuation decisions are rarely straightforward in protracted advance-warning events. Previous work provides little insight into the decision-making process around evacuation. This study was conducted to identify factors that most heavily influenced the decisions to evacuate the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) New York Harbor Healthcare System's (NYHHS; New York USA) Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene in 2011 and before Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Semi-structured interviews with 11 senior leaders were conducted on the processes and factors that influenced the evacuation decisions prior to each event. The most influential factor in the decision to evacuate the Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene was New York City's (NYC's) hospital-evacuation mandate. As a federal facility, the Manhattan VA medical center (VAMC) was exempt from the city's order, but decision makers felt compelled to comply. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, corporate memory of a similar 1992 storm that crippled the Manhattan facility drove the decision to evacuate before the storm hit. Results suggest that hospital-evacuation decisions are confounded by political considerations and are influenced by past disaster experience. Greater shared situational awareness among at-risk hospitals, along with a more coordinated approach to evacuation decision making, could reduce pressure on hospitals to make these high-stakes decisions. Systematic mechanisms for collecting, documenting, and sharing lessons learned from past disasters are sorely needed at the institutional, local, and national levels.

  12. Estimating time-varying RSA to examine psychophysiological linkage of marital dyads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Kathleen M; Gatzke-Kopp, Lisa M; Sandsten, Maria; Blandon, Alysia Y

    2015-08-01

    One of the primary tenets of polyvagal theory dictates that parasympathetic influence on heart rate, often estimated by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), shifts rapidly in response to changing environmental demands. The current standard analytic approach of aggregating RSA estimates across time to arrive at one value fails to capture this dynamic property within individuals. By utilizing recent methodological developments that enable precise RSA estimates at smaller time intervals, we demonstrate the utility of computing time-varying RSA for assessing psychophysiological linkage (or synchrony) in husband-wife dyads using time-locked data collected in a naturalistic setting. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  13. Wireless data collection system for real-time arterial travel time estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    This project pursued several objectives conducive to the implementation and testing of a Bluetooth (BT) based system to collect travel time data, including the deployment of a BT-based travel time data collection system to perform comprehensive testi...

  14. Are the dynamics of gastric evacuation of natural prey in a piscivorous flatfish different from what is going on in a gadoid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog, C.; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2009-01-01

    Despite the fact that the stomach of turbot Psetta maxima is a curved tube that forms a half circle, it was demonstrated that gastric evacuation in this predatory flatfish fed natural prey closely followed the surface-dependent cylinder model developed from studies on gadoids with a straight...... stomach. Evacuation experiments were performed on two size groups of P. maxima fed sandeel Ammodytes tobianus as well as on P. maxima fed brown shrimp Crangon crangon at three different temperatures. This enabled the provision of a gastric evacuation model for studies on P. maxima, which takes...... with the conclusion of a previous study on P. maxima that evacuation of A. tobianus is essentially linear with time. Use of the cylinder model to the values of the explanatory variables presented in the latter study, however, gave accurate predictions of the actually acquired evacuation data, which points...

  15. Life time estimation of SSCs for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Choi, Byung-Seon

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This paper suggests the expectation algorithm of SSCs life time for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities. ► The life time of SSCs can be estimated by using fuzzy theory. ► The estimated results depend on the membership functions and performance characteristic functions. - Abstract: This paper suggests the estimation algorithm for life time of structure, system and components (SSCs) for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities using the performance data of linguistic languages and fuzzy theory. The fuzzy estimation algorithm of life time can be easily applicable but the estimated results depend on the relevant membership functions and performance characteristic functions. This method will be expected to be very useful for maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear facilities’ SSCs as a safety assessment tool.

  16. The current duration design for estimating the time to pregnancy distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gasbarra, Dario; Arjas, Elja; Vehtari, Aki

    2015-01-01

    This paper was inspired by the studies of Niels Keiding and co-authors on estimating the waiting time-to-pregnancy (TTP) distribution, and in particular on using the current duration design in that context. In this design, a cross-sectional sample of women is collected from those who are currently...... attempting to become pregnant, and then by recording from each the time she has been attempting. Our aim here is to study the identifiability and the estimation of the waiting time distribution on the basis of current duration data. The main difficulty in this stems from the fact that very short waiting...... times are only rarely selected into the sample of current durations, and this renders their estimation unstable. We introduce here a Bayesian method for this estimation problem, prove its asymptotic consistency, and compare the method to some variants of the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators...

  17. PolyWaTT: A polynomial water travel time estimator based on Derivative Dynamic Time Warping and Perceptually Important Points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claure, Yuri Navarro; Matsubara, Edson Takashi; Padovani, Carlos; Prati, Ronaldo Cristiano

    2018-03-01

    Traditional methods for estimating timing parameters in hydrological science require a rigorous study of the relations of flow resistance, slope, flow regime, watershed size, water velocity, and other local variables. These studies are mostly based on empirical observations, where the timing parameter is estimated using empirically derived formulas. The application of these studies to other locations is not always direct. The locations in which equations are used should have comparable characteristics to the locations from which such equations have been derived. To overcome this barrier, in this work, we developed a data-driven approach to estimate timing parameters such as travel time. Our proposal estimates timing parameters using historical data of the location without the need of adapting or using empirical formulas from other locations. The proposal only uses one variable measured at two different locations on the same river (for instance, two river-level measurements, one upstream and the other downstream on the same river). The recorded data from each location generates two time series. Our method aligns these two time series using derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) and perceptually important points (PIP). Using data from timing parameters, a polynomial function generalizes the data by inducing a polynomial water travel time estimator, called PolyWaTT. To evaluate the potential of our proposal, we applied PolyWaTT to three different watersheds: a floodplain ecosystem located in the part of Brazil known as Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland area; and the Missouri River and the Pearl River, in United States of America. We compared our proposal with empirical formulas and a data-driven state-of-the-art method. The experimental results demonstrate that PolyWaTT showed a lower mean absolute error than all other methods tested in this study, and for longer distances the mean absolute error achieved by PolyWaTT is three times smaller than empirical

  18. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

  19. GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

    2018-01-01

    Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

  20. Means of escape provisions and evacuation simulation of public building in Malaysia and Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Taib, Nooriati; Ying, Choo Siew

    2017-10-01

    The Uniform Building By-law 1984 of Malaysia is the legal document governing fire safety requirements in buildings. Its prescriptive nature has made the requirements out dated from the viewpoint of current performance based approach in most developed countries. The means of escape provisions is a critical requirement to safeguard occupants' safety in fire especially in public buildings. As stipulated in the UBBL 1984, the means of escape provisions includes sufficient escape routes, travel distance, protection of escape routes, etc. designated as means to allow occupants to escape within a safe period of time. This research aims at investigating the effectiveness of those provisions in public buildings during evacuation process involving massive crowd during emergencies. This research includes a scenario-based study on evacuation processes using two software i.e. PyroSim, a crowd modelling software to conduct smoke study and Pathfinder to stimulate evacuation model of building in Malaysia and Singapore as comparative study. The results show that the buildings used as case study were designed according to Malaysian UBBL 1984 and Singapore Firecode, 2013 respectively provide relative safe means of escape. The simulations of fire and smoke and coupled with simulation of evacuation have demonstrated that although there are adequate exits designated according to fire requirements, the impact of the geometry of atriums on the behavior of fire and smoke have significant effect on escape time especially for unfamiliar user of the premises.

  1. Evacuating People and Their Pets: Older Floridians' Need for and Proximity to Pet-Friendly Shelters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Rachel; Kocatepe, Ayberk; Barrett, Anne E; Ozguven, Eren Erman; Gumber, Clayton

    2017-10-04

    Pets influence evacuation decisions, but little is known about pet-friendly emergency shelters' availability or older adults' need for them. Our study addresses this issue, focusing on the most densely populated area of Florida (Miami-Dade)-the state with the oldest population and greatest hurricane susceptibility. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to identify the shortest paths to pet-friendly shelters, based on distance and congested and uncongested travel times-taking into account the older population's spatial distribution. Logistic regression models using the 2013 American Housing Survey's Disaster Planning Module examine anticipated shelter use as a function of pet ownership and requiring pet evacuation assistance. Thirty-four percent of older adults in the Miami-Dade area have pets-35% of whom report needing pet evacuation assistance. However, GIS accessibility measures show that travel time factors are likely to impede older adults' use of the area's few pet-friendly shelters. Logistic regression results reveal that pet owners are less likely to report anticipating shelter use; however, the opposite holds for pet owners reporting they would need help evacuating their pets-they anticipate using shelters. High pet shelter need coupled with low availability exacerbates older adults' heightened vulnerability during Florida's hurricane season. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

    2012-09-01

    Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Evacuation Simulation in Kalayaan Residence Hall, up Diliman Using Gama Simulation Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claridades, A. R. C.; Villanueva, J. K. S.; Macatulad, E. G.

    2016-09-01

    Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) has recently been adopted in some studies for the modelling of events as a dynamic system given a set of events and parameters. In principle, ABM employs individual agents with assigned attributes and behaviors and simulates their behavior around their environment and interaction with other agents. This can be a useful tool in both micro and macroscale-applications. In this study, a model initially created and applied to an academic building was implemented in a dormitory. In particular, this research integrates three-dimensional Geographic Information System (GIS) with GAMA as the multi-agent based evacuation simulation and is implemented in Kalayaan Residence Hall. A three-dimensional GIS model is created based on the floor plans and demographic data of the dorm, including respective pathways as networks, rooms, floors, exits and appropriate attributes. This model is then re-implemented in GAMA. Different states of the agents and their effect on their evacuation time were then observed. GAMA simulation with varying path width was also implemented. It has been found out that compared to their original states, panic, eating and studying will hasten evacuation, and on the other hand, sleeping and being on the bathrooms will be impedances. It is also concluded that evacuation time will be halved when path widths are doubled, however it is recommended for further studies for pathways to be modeled as spaces instead of lines. A more scientific basis for predicting agent behavior in these states is also recommended for more realistic results.

  4. The fossilized birth–death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heath, Tracy A.; Huelsenbeck, John P.; Stadler, Tanja

    2014-01-01

    Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data—most commonly, fossil age estimates—are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the “fossilized birth–death” (FBD) process—a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene. PMID:25009181

  5. Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher C.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko

    2017-07-01

    Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

  6. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  7. 14 CFR 121.570 - Airplane evacuation capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airplane evacuation capability. 121.570... REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS Flight Operations § 121.570 Airplane evacuation capability. (a) No person may cause an airplane carrying passengers to be moved on the surface, take off, or...

  8. Evacuated, displacement compression mold. [of tubular bodies from thermosetting plastics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heier, W. C. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    A process of molding long thin-wall tubular bodies from thermosetting plastic molding compounds is described wherein the tubular body lengths may be several times the diameters. The process is accomplished by loading a predetermined quantity of molding compound into a female mold cavity closed at one end by a force mandrel. After closing the other end of the female mold with a balance mandrel, the loaded cavity is evacuated by applying a vacuum of from one-to-five mm pressure for a period of fifteen-to-thirty minutes. The mold temperature is raised to the minimum temperature at which the resin constituent of the compound will soften or plasticize and a pressure of 2500 psi is applied.

  9. On estimation of time-dependent attributable fraction from population-based case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Chen, Ying Qing; Hsu, Li

    2017-09-01

    Population attributable fraction (PAF) is widely used to quantify the disease burden associated with a modifiable exposure in a population. It has been extended to a time-varying measure that provides additional information on when and how the exposure's impact varies over time for cohort studies. However, there is no estimation procedure for PAF using data that are collected from population-based case-control studies, which, because of time and cost efficiency, are commonly used for studying genetic and environmental risk factors of disease incidences. In this article, we show that time-varying PAF is identifiable from a case-control study and develop a novel estimator of PAF. Our estimator combines odds ratio estimates from logistic regression models and density estimates of the risk factor distribution conditional on failure times in cases from a kernel smoother. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance that can be estimated empirically from the data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in finite sample sizes. Finally, the method is illustrated by a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Evacuation Behavior: Case Study of the Taft Louisiana Chemical Tank Explosion Incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-05-01

    bedridden elderly evacuees. The weather was cool to cold on Saturday so both children and adults remained indoors. To combat boredom, a film was shown in...adults, and 10 percent were elderly adults (however, one nuclear plant evacuation document estimates that there are approximately 5,000 persons 60 years...by the transportation officer, but a pattern was followed. People living in neighborhoods known to contain the poor and/or elderly were serviced first

  11. A Generalized Estimating Equations Approach to Model Heterogeneity and Time Dependence in Capture-Recapture Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akanda Md. Abdus Salam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and time dependence are fundamentally important for estimating the closed animal population parameters in capture-recapture studies. A generalized estimating equations (GEE approach accounts for linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions, and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities in a closed population capture-recapture individual heterogeneity and time variation model. The estimated capture probabilities are used to estimate animal population parameters. Two real data sets are used for illustrative purposes. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the GEE estimator. A Quasi-Likelihood Information Criterion (QIC is applied for the selection of the best fitting model. This approach performs well when the estimated population parameters depend on the individual heterogeneity and the nature of linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions.

  12. Uniform Estimate of the Finite-Time Ruin Probability for All Times in a Generalized Compound Renewal Risk Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingwu Gao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the uniformly asymptotic estimate of the finite-time ruin probability for all times in a generalized compound renewal risk model, where the interarrival times of successive accidents and all the claim sizes caused by an accident are two sequences of random variables following a wide dependence structure. This wide dependence structure allows random variables to be either negatively dependent or positively dependent.

  13. Computer simulation-based framework for transportation evacuation in major trip generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more : frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. : Currently, transportation evacu...

  14. Towards Real-Time Maneuver Detection: Automatic State and Dynamics Estimation with the Adaptive Optimal Control Based Estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubey, D.; Scheeres, D.

    Tracking objects in Earth orbit is fraught with complications. This is due to the large population of orbiting spacecraft and debris that continues to grow, passive (i.e. no direct communication) and data-sparse observations, and the presence of maneuvers and dynamics mismodeling. Accurate orbit determination in this environment requires an algorithm to capture both a system's state and its state dynamics in order to account for mismodelings. Previous studies by the authors yielded an algorithm called the Optimal Control Based Estimator (OCBE) - an algorithm that simultaneously estimates a system's state and optimal control policies that represent dynamic mismodeling in the system for an arbitrary orbit-observer setup. The stochastic properties of these estimated controls are then used to determine the presence of mismodelings (maneuver detection), as well as characterize and reconstruct the mismodelings. The purpose of this paper is to develop the OCBE into an accurate real-time orbit tracking and maneuver detection algorithm by automating the algorithm and removing its linear assumptions. This results in a nonlinear adaptive estimator. In its original form the OCBE had a parameter called the assumed dynamic uncertainty, which is selected by the user with each new measurement to reflect the level of dynamic mismodeling in the system. This human-in-the-loop approach precludes real-time application to orbit tracking problems due to their complexity. This paper focuses on the Adaptive OCBE, a version of the estimator where the assumed dynamic uncertainty is chosen automatically with each new measurement using maneuver detection results to ensure that state uncertainties are properly adjusted to account for all dynamic mismodelings. The paper also focuses on a nonlinear implementation of the estimator. Originally, the OCBE was derived from a nonlinear cost function then linearized about a nominal trajectory, which is assumed to be ballistic (i.e. the nominal optimal

  15. On the background estimation by time slides in a network of gravitational wave detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis

    2010-01-01

    Time shifting the outputs of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way to estimate the background in a search for short-duration signals. However, this procedure is limited as increasing indefinitely the number of time shifts does not provide better estimates. We show that the false alarm rate estimation error saturates with the number of time shifts. In particular, for detectors with very different trigger rates, this error saturates at a large value. Explicit computations are done for two detectors, and for three detectors where the detection statistic relies on the logical 'OR' of the coincidences of the three couples in the network.

  16. On the background estimation by time slides in a network of gravitational wave detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis, E-mail: mwas@lal.in2p3.f [LAL, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France)

    2010-01-07

    Time shifting the outputs of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way to estimate the background in a search for short-duration signals. However, this procedure is limited as increasing indefinitely the number of time shifts does not provide better estimates. We show that the false alarm rate estimation error saturates with the number of time shifts. In particular, for detectors with very different trigger rates, this error saturates at a large value. Explicit computations are done for two detectors, and for three detectors where the detection statistic relies on the logical 'OR' of the coincidences of the three couples in the network.

  17. DEMO maintenance scenarios: scheme for time estimations and preliminary estimates for blankets arranged in multi-module-segments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, D.

    2007-01-01

    Previous conceptual studies made clear that the ITER blanket concept and segmentation is not suitable for the environment of a potential fusion power plant (DEMO). One promising concept to be used instead is the so-called Multi-Module-Segment (MMS) concept. Each MMS consists of a number of blankets arranged on a strong back plate thus forming ''banana'' shaped in-board (IB) and out-board (OB) segments. With respect to port size, weight, or other limiting aspects the IB and OB MMS are segmented in toroidal direction. The number of segments to be replaced would be below 100. For this segmentation concept a new maintenance scenario had to be worked out. The aim of this paper is to present a promising MMS maintenance scenario, a flexible scheme for time estimations under varying boundary conditions and preliminary time estimates. According to the proposed scenario two upper, vertical arranged maintenance ports have to be opened for blanket maintenance on opposite sides of the tokamak. Both ports are central to a 180 degree sector and the MMS are removed and inserted through both ports. In-vessel machines are operating to transport the elements in toroidal direction and also to insert and attach the MMS to the shield. Outside the vessel the elements have to be transported between the tokamak and the hot cell to be refurbished. Calculating the maintenance time for such a scenario is rather challenging due to the numerous parallel processes involved. For this reason a flexible, multi-level calculation scheme has been developed in which the operations are organized into three levels: At the lowest level the basic maintenance steps are determined. These are organized into maintenance sequences that take into account parallelisms in the system. Several maintenance sequences constitute the maintenance phases which correspond to a certain logistics scenario. By adding the required times of the maintenance phases the total maintenance time is obtained. The paper presents

  18. Evacuation proctography - examination technique and method of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braunschweig, R.; Schott, U.; Starlinger, M.

    1993-01-01

    Evacuation proctography is the most important imaging technique to supplement findings of physical examination, manometry, and endoscopy in patients presenting with pathologies in anorectal morphology and function. Indications for evacuation proctography include obstructed defecation or incomplete evacuation, imaging of ileal pouches following excision of the rectum, and suspected anorectal fistulae. Evacuation proctography with thick barium sulfate is performed under fluoroscopy. Documentation of the study can either be done by single-shot X-rays, video recording, or imaging with a 100-mm spot-film camera. Evacuation proctography shows morphologic changes such as spastic pelvic floor, rectocele, enterocele, intussusception and anal prolapse. Measurements can be performed to obtain the anorectal angle, location and mobility of the pelvic floor, and size as well as importance of a rectocele. Qualitative and quantitative data can only be interpreted along with clinical and manometric data. (orig.) [de

  19. Secondary task for full flight simulation incorporating tasks that commonly cause pilot error: Time estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosch, E.

    1975-01-01

    The task of time estimation, an activity occasionally performed by pilots during actual flight, was investigated with the objective of providing human factors investigators with an unobtrusive and minimally loading additional task that is sensitive to differences in flying conditions and flight instrumentation associated with the main task of piloting an aircraft simulator. Previous research indicated that the duration and consistency of time estimates is associated with the cognitive, perceptual, and motor loads imposed by concurrent simple tasks. The relationships between the length and variability of time estimates and concurrent task variables under a more complex situation involving simulated flight were clarified. The wrap-around effect with respect to baseline duration, a consequence of mode switching at intermediate levels of concurrent task distraction, should contribute substantially to estimate variability and have a complex effect on the shape of the resulting distribution of estimates.

  20. Stationary echo canceling in velocity estimation by time-domain cross-correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    1993-01-01

    The application of stationary echo canceling to ultrasonic estimation of blood velocities using time-domain cross-correlation is investigated. Expressions are derived that show the influence from the echo canceler on the signals that enter the cross-correlation estimator. It is demonstrated...

  1. Tightness of M-estimators for multiple linear regression in time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent

    We show tightness of a general M-estimator for multiple linear regression in time series. The positive criterion function for the M-estimator is assumed lower semi-continuous and sufficiently large for large argument: Particular cases are the Huber-skip and quantile regression. Tightness requires...

  2. Two-Step Time of Arrival Estimation for Pulse-Based Ultra-Wideband Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vincent Poor

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In cooperative localization systems, wireless nodes need to exchange accurate position-related information such as time-of-arrival (TOA and angle-of-arrival (AOA, in order to obtain accurate location information. One alternative for providing accurate position-related information is to use ultra-wideband (UWB signals. The high time resolution of UWB signals presents a potential for very accurate positioning based on TOA estimation. However, it is challenging to realize very accurate positioning systems in practical scenarios, due to both complexity/cost constraints and adverse channel conditions such as multipath propagation. In this paper, a two-step TOA estimation algorithm is proposed for UWB systems in order to provide accurate TOA estimation under practical constraints. In order to speed up the estimation process, the first step estimates a coarse TOA of the received signal based on received signal energy. Then, in the second step, the arrival time of the first signal path is estimated by considering a hypothesis testing approach. The proposed scheme uses low-rate correlation outputs and is able to perform accurate TOA estimation in reasonable time intervals. The simulation results are presented to analyze the performance of the estimator.

  3. A stationary evacuated collector with integrated concentrator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snail, K.A.; O' Gallagher, J.J.; Winston, R.

    1984-01-01

    A comprehensive set of experimental tests and detailed optical and thermal models are presented for a newly developed solar thermal collector. The new collector has an optical efficiency of 65 per cent and achieves thermal efficiencies of better than 50 per cent at fluid temperatures of 200/sup 0/C without tracking the sun. The simultaneous features of high temperature operation and a fully stationary mount are made possible by combining vacuum insulation, spectrally selective coatings, and nonimaging concentration in a novel way. These 3 design elements are ''integrated'' together in a self containe unit by shaping the outer glass envelope of a conventional evacuated tube into the profile of a nonimaging CPC-type concentrator. This permits the use of a first surface mirror and eliminates the need for second cover glazing. The new collector has been given the name ''Integrated Stationary Evacuated Concentrator'', or ISEC collector. Not only is the peak thermal efficiency of the ISEC comparable to that of commercial tracking parabolic troughs, but projections of the average yearly energy delivery also show competitive performance with a net gain for temperatures below 200/sup 0/C. In addition, the ISEC is less subject to exposure induced degradation and could be mass produced with assembly methods similar to those used with fluorescent lamps. Since no tracking or tilt adjustments are ever required and because its sensitive optical surfaces are protected from the environment, the ISEC collector provides a simple, easily maintained solar thermal collector for the range 100-300/sup 0/C which is suitable for most climates and atmospheric conditions. Potential applications include space heating, air conditioning, and industrial process heat.

  4. Estimation of traffic recovery time for different flow regimes on freeways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    This study attempts to estimate post-incident traffic recovery time along a freeway using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. It has been found that there is a linear relationship between post-incident traffic recovery time, and incident time and traf...

  5. A methodological framework of travel time distribution estimation for urban signalized arterial roads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Fangfang; van Zuylen, H.J.; Liu, Xiaobo

    2017-01-01

    Urban travel times are rather variable as a result of a lot of stochastic factors both in traffic flows, signals, and other conditions on the infrastructure. However, the most common way both in literature and practice is to estimate or predict only expected travel times, not travel time

  6. Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chaoyang Shi; Bi Yu Chen; William H. K. Lam; Qingquan Li

    2017-01-01

    Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are f...

  7. DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING SUBHASISH MOHANTY*, ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, JOHN N. RAJADAS, AND CLYDE...

  8. Efficient Estimation for Diffusions Sampled at High Frequency Over a Fixed Time Interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Nina Munkholt; Sørensen, Michael

    Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find easily verified conditions on approximate martingale...

  9. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  10. Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

    2017-01-01

    Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  12. Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

    OpenAIRE

    J. Šebo; J. Buša; P. Demeč; J. Svetlík

    2013-01-01

    The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables). Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is ...

  13. On H∞ Fault Estimator Design for Linear Discrete Time-Varying Systems under Unreliable Communication Link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueyang Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the H∞ fixed-lag fault estimator design for linear discrete time-varying (LDTV systems with intermittent measurements, which is described by a Bernoulli distributed random variable. Through constructing a novel partially equivalent dynamic system, the fault estimator design is converted into a deterministic quadratic minimization problem. By applying the innovation reorganization technique and the projection formula in Krein space, a necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for the existence of the estimator. The parameter matrices of the estimator are derived by recursively solving two standard Riccati equations. An illustrative example is provided to show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed algorithm.

  14. Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoyang Shi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks.

  15. Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chaoyang; Chen, Bi Yu; Lam, William H K; Li, Qingquan

    2017-12-06

    Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks.

  16. Laboratory investigation of daily food intake and gut evacuation in larvae of African catfish Clarias gariepinus under different feeding conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    García-Ortega, A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Vermis, K.; Nelis, H.J.; Sorgeloos, P.; Verstegen, M.W.A.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Temporary accumulation of ascorbic acid 2-sulfate (AAS) was measured to estimate food intake and gut evacuation in larvae of African catfish. Fish larvae were fed decapsulated cysts of Artemia containing AAS. In a first experiment it was found that no biosynthesis of AAS occurs in the

  17. Real-time measurements and their effects on state estimation of distribution power system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xue; You, Shi; Thordarson, Fannar

    2013-01-01

    between the estimated values (voltage and injected power) and the measurements are applied to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated grid states. Eventually, some suggestions are provided for the distribution grid operators on placing the real-time meters in the distribution grid.......This paper aims at analyzing the potential value of using different real-time metering and measuring instruments applied in the low voltage distribution networks for state-estimation. An algorithm is presented to evaluate different combinations of metering data using a tailored state estimator....... It is followed by a case study based on the proposed algorithm. A real distribution grid feeder with different types of meters installed either in the cabinets or at the customer side is selected for simulation and analysis. Standard load templates are used to initiate the state estimation. The deviations...

  18. Power System Real-Time Monitoring by Using PMU-Based Robust State Estimation Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junbo; Zhang, Gexiang; Das, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Accurate real-time states provided by the state estimator are critical for power system reliable operation and control. This paper proposes a novel phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based robust state estimation method (PRSEM) to real-time monitor a power system under different operation conditions...... the system real-time states with good robustness and can address several kinds of BD.......-based bad data (BD) detection method, which can handle the smearing effect and critical measurement errors, is presented. We evaluate PRSEM by using IEEE benchmark test systems and a realistic utility system. The numerical results indicate that, in short computation time, PRSEM can effectively track...

  19. Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

    2016-11-15

    In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Time-scales for runoff and erosion estimates, with implications for spatial scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; Irvine, B. J.; Dalen, E. N.

    2009-04-01

    Using rainfall data at high temporal resolution, runoff may be estimated for every bucket-tip, or for aggregated hourly or daily periods. Although there is no doubt that finer resolution gives substantially better estimates, many models make use of coarser time steps because these data are more widely available. This paper makes comparisons between runoff estimates based on infiltration measurements used with high resolution rainfall data for SE Spain and theoretical work on improving the time resolution in the PESERA model from daily to hourly values, for areas where these are available. For a small plot at fine temporal scale, runoff responds to bursts of intense rainfall which, for the Guadalentin catchment, typically lasts for about 30 minutes. However, when a larger area is considered, the large and unstructured variability in infiltration capacity produces an aggregate runoff that differs substantially from estimates using average infiltration parameters (in the Green-Ampt equation). When these estimates are compared with estimates based on rainfall for aggregated hourly or daily periods, using a simpler infiltration model, it can be seen that there a substantial scatter, as expected, but that suitable parameterisation can provide reasonable average estimates. Similar conclusions may be drawn for erosion estimates, assuming that sediment transport is proportional to a power of runoff discharge.. The spatial implications of these estimates can be made explicit with fine time resolution, showing that, with observed low overland flow velocities, only a small fraction of the hillside is generally able to deliver runoff to the nearest channel before rainfall intensity drops and runoff re-infiltrates. For coarser time resolutions, this has to be parameterised as a delivery ratio, and we show that how this ratio can be rationally estimated from rainfall characteristics.

  1. Methodological issues in the estimation of parental time – Analysis of measures in a Canadian time-use survey

    OpenAIRE

    Cara B. Fedick; Shelley Pacholok; Anne H. Gauthier

    2005-01-01

    Extensive small scale studies have documented that when people assume the role of assisting a person with impairments or an older person, care activities account for a significant portion of their daily routines. Nevertheless, little research has investigated the problem of measuring the time that carers spend in care-related activities. This paper contrasts two different measures of care time – an estimated average weekly hours question in the 1998 Australian Survey of Disability, Ageing and...

  2. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Department of Veterans Affairs: a conceptual model for understanding the evacuation of nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobalian, Aram; Claver, Maria; Fickel, Jacqueline J

    2010-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita exposed significant flaws in US preparedness for catastrophic events and the nation's capacity to respond to them. These flaws were especially evident in the affected disaster areas' nursing homes, which house a particularly vulnerable population of frail older adults. Although evacuation of a healthcare facility is a key preparedness activity, there is limited research on factors that lead to effective evacuation. Our review of the literature on evacuation is focused on developing a conceptual framework to study future evacuations rather than as a comprehensive assessment of prior work. This paper summarizes what is known thus far about disaster response activities of nursing homes following natural and human-caused disasters, describes a conceptual model to guide future inquiry regarding this topic, and suggests future areas of research to further understand the decision-making process of nursing home facilitators regarding evacuating nursing home residents. To demonstrate the utility of the conceptual model and to provide guidance about effective practices and procedures, this paper focuses on the responses of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) nursing homes to the 2 hurricanes. Quarantelli's conceptual framework, as modified by Perry and Mushkatel, is useful in guiding the development of central hypotheses related to the decision-making that occurred in VA nursing homes and other healthcare facilities following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. However, we define evacuation somewhat differently to account for the fact that evacuation may, in some instances, be permanent. Thus, we propose modifying this framework to improve its applicability beyond preventive evacuation. We need to better understand how disaster plans can be adapted to meet the needs of frail elders and other residents in nursing homes. Moreover, we must address identified gaps in the scientific literature with respect to health outcomes by tracking outcomes over time

  3. Finite Time Fault Tolerant Control for Robot Manipulators Using Time Delay Estimation and Continuous Nonsingular Fast Terminal Sliding Mode Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van, Mien; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; Ren, Hongliang

    2016-04-28

    In this paper, a novel finite time fault tolerant control (FTC) is proposed for uncertain robot manipulators with actuator faults. First, a finite time passive FTC (PFTC) based on a robust nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode control (NFTSMC) is investigated. Be analyzed for addressing the disadvantages of the PFTC, an AFTC are then investigated by combining NFTSMC with a simple fault diagnosis scheme. In this scheme, an online fault estimation algorithm based on time delay estimation (TDE) is proposed to approximate actuator faults. The estimated fault information is used to detect, isolate, and accommodate the effect of the faults in the system. Then, a robust AFTC law is established by combining the obtained fault information and a robust NFTSMC. Finally, a high-order sliding mode (HOSM) control based on super-twisting algorithm is employed to eliminate the chattering. In comparison to the PFTC and other state-of-the-art approaches, the proposed AFTC scheme possess several advantages such as high precision, strong robustness, no singularity, less chattering, and fast finite-time convergence due to the combined NFTSMC and HOSM control, and requires no prior knowledge of the fault due to TDE-based fault estimation. Finally, simulation results are obtained to verify the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  4. Generalized synchronization-based multiparameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Dibakar; Bhattacharyya, Bidyut K.

    2011-09-01

    We propose a nonlinear active observer based generalized synchronization scheme for multiparameter estimation in time-delayed systems with periodic time delay. A sufficient condition for parameter estimation is derived using Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. The suggested tool proves to be globally and asymptotically stable by means of Krasovskii-Lyapunov method. With this effective method, parameter identification and generalized synchronization of modulated time-delayed systems with all the system parameters unknown, can be achieved simultaneously. We restrict our study for multiple parameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems with single state variable only. Theoretical proof and numerical simulation demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed technique. The block diagram of electronic circuit for multiple time delay system shows that the method is easily applicable in practical communication problems.

  5. The estimation of turnover time in the Japan Sea bottom water by 129I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Takashi; Togawa, Orihiko; Minakawa, Masayuki

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that the Japan Sea is sensitive for the environment such a global warming. To understand the oceanic circulation in the Japan Sea, we estimated a turnover time and a potential formation rate of the Japan Sea bottom water (JSBW) using an oceanographic tracer of 129 I. The turnover time of JSBW was calculated based on the increased concentration during the nuclear era. The turnover time was estimated to be 180 - 210 years. The potential formation rate of JSBW is calculated based on the existence of the anthropogenic 129 I in the JSBW. The potential formation rate of JSBW is estimated to be (3.6-4.1) x 10 12 m 3 /y which is consistent with another estimation and is about quarter of that of the upper Japan Sea proper water. (author)

  6. Parameter Estimation of a Closed Loop Coupled Tank Time Varying System using Recursive Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basir, Siti Nora; Yussof, Hanafiah; Shamsuddin, Syamimi; Selamat, Hazlina; Zahari, Nur Ismarrubie

    2013-01-01

    This project investigates the direct identification of closed loop plant using discrete-time approach. The uses of Recursive Least Squares (RLS), Recursive Instrumental Variable (RIV) and Recursive Instrumental Variable with Centre-Of-Triangle (RIV + COT) in the parameter estimation of closed loop time varying system have been considered. The algorithms were applied in a coupled tank system that employs covariance resetting technique where the time of parameter changes occur is unknown. The performances of all the parameter estimation methods, RLS, RIV and RIV + COT were compared. The estimation of the system whose output was corrupted with white and coloured noises were investigated. Covariance resetting technique successfully executed when the parameters change. RIV + COT gives better estimates than RLS and RIV in terms of convergence and maximum overshoot

  7. Robust state estimation for uncertain fuzzy bidirectional associative memory networks with time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadivel, P.; Sakthivel, R.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Arunkumar, A.

    2013-09-01

    This paper addresses the issue of robust state estimation for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties. By constructing the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, which contains the triple-integral term and using the free-weighting matrix technique, a set of sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the dynamics of the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable. In particular, we consider a generalized activation function in which the traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of the activation functions are removed. More precisely, the design of the state estimator for such BAM neural networks can be obtained by solving some LMIs, which are dependent on the size of the time derivative of the time-varying delays. Finally, a numerical example with simulation result is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

  8. Robust state estimation for uncertain fuzzy bidirectional associative memory networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vadivel, P; Sakthivel, R; Mathiyalagan, K; Arunkumar, A

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of robust state estimation for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties. By constructing the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, which contains the triple-integral term and using the free-weighting matrix technique, a set of sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the dynamics of the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable. In particular, we consider a generalized activation function in which the traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of the activation functions are removed. More precisely, the design of the state estimator for such BAM neural networks can be obtained by solving some LMIs, which are dependent on the size of the time derivative of the time-varying delays. Finally, a numerical example with simulation result is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results. (paper)

  9. Research on Evacuation Based on Social Force Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.; Deng, Z.; Li, W.; Lin, J.

    2017-09-01

    Crowded centers always cause personnel casualties in evacuation operations. Stampede events often occur by hit, squeeze and crush due to panic. It is of vital important to alleviate such situation. With the deepening of personnel evacuation research, more and more researchers are committed to study individual behaviors and self-organization phenomenon in evacuation process. The study mainly includes: 1, enrich the social force model from different facets such as visual, psychological, external force to descript more realistic evacuation; 2, research on causes and effects of self - organization phenomenon. In this paper, we focus on disorder motion that occurs in the crowded indoor publics, especially the narrow channel and safety exits and other special arteries. We put forward the improved social force model to depict pedestrians' behaviors, an orderly speed-stratification evacuation method to solve disorder problem, and shape-changed export to alleviate congestion. The result of this work shows an improvement of evacuation efficiency by 19.5 %. Guiding pedestrians' direction to slow down the influence of social forces has a guidance function in improving the efficiency of indoor emergency evacuation.

  10. Nonlinear estimation of ring-down time for a Fabry-Perot optical cavity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallapur, Abhijit G; Boyson, Toby K; Petersen, Ian R; Harb, Charles C

    2011-03-28

    This paper discusses the application of a discrete-time extended Kalman filter (EKF) to the problem of estimating the decay time constant for a Fabry-Perot optical cavity for cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The data for the estimation process is obtained from a CRDS experimental setup in terms of the light intensity at the output of the cavity. The cavity is held in lock with the input laser frequency by controlling the distance between the mirrors within the cavity by means of a proportional-integral (PI) controller. The cavity is purged with nitrogen and placed under vacuum before chopping the incident light at 25 KHz and recording the light intensity at its output. In spite of beginning the EKF estimation process with uncertainties in the initial value for the decay time constant, its estimates converge well within a small neighborhood of the expected value for the decay time constant of the cavity within a few ring-down cycles. Also, the EKF estimation results for the decay time constant are compared to those obtained using the Levenberg-Marquardt estimation scheme.

  11. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  12. Consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vero, S E; Ibrahim, T G; Creamer, R E; Grant, J; Healy, M G; Henry, T; Kramers, G; Richards, K G; Fenton, O

    2014-12-01

    The true efficacy of a programme of agricultural mitigation measures within a catchment to improve water quality can be determined only after a certain hydrologic time lag period (subsequent to implementation) has elapsed. As the biophysical response to policy is not synchronous, accurate estimates of total time lag (unsaturated and saturated) become critical to manage the expectations of policy makers. The estimation of the vertical unsaturated zone component of time lag is vital as it indicates early trends (initial breakthrough), bulk (centre of mass) and total (Exit) travel times. Typically, estimation of time lag through the unsaturated zone is poor, due to the lack of site specific soil physical data, or by assuming saturated conditions. Numerical models (e.g. Hydrus 1D) enable estimates of time lag with varied levels of input data. The current study examines the consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates using simulated and actual soil profiles. Results indicated that: greater temporal resolution (from daily to hourly) of meteorological data was more critical as the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil decreased; high clay content soils failed to converge reflecting prevalence of lateral component as a contaminant pathway; elucidation of soil hydraulic properties was influenced by the complexity of soil physical data employed (textural menu, ROSETTA, full and partial soil water characteristic curves), which consequently affected time lag ranges; as the importance of the unsaturated zone increases with respect to total travel times the requirements for high complexity/resolution input data become greater. The methodology presented herein demonstrates that decisions made regarding input data and landscape position will have consequences for the estimated range of vertical travel times. Insufficiencies or inaccuracies regarding such input data can therefore mislead policy makers regarding

  13. Successful hand replantation in a seafarer after long-distance helicopter evacuation. A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Palacios, Javier; Duque, Orlando Garcia; Benitez, Ruben Alvarado; Bolanos, Luis Fabelo; Calderin, Jose Guterrez

    2009-01-01

    After sustaining a clean-cut mid-carpal hand amputation on a tanker 120 miles north of Lanzarote, a 28- -year-old seafarer was evacuated by helicopter to a microsurgical unit in Gran Canaria. The amputated hand was cooled according to precise instructions. The 6-hour flight time included two refuelling stops and transfer time. The hand had been revascularized thirteen hours after the accident and was still well circulated at repatriation 3 weeks later.

  14. Integrating Regret Psychology to Travel Mode Choice for a Transit-Oriented Evacuation Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi An

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Facing the potential dangers from sudden disasters in urban cities, emergency administrators have to make an appropriate evacuation plan to mitigate negative consequences. However, little attention has been paid to evacuee real decision psychology when developing a strategy. The aim of this paper is to analyze evacuee mode choice behavior considering regret aversion psychology during evacuation. First, the utility-based and regret-based models are formulated to obtain evacuees’ preferences on travel mode choice, respectively. According to the data collected from the stated preference (SP survey on evacuee mode choice, the estimation results show that the regret-based model performs better than the utility model. Moreover, based on the estimates from behavioral analysis, the elasticities of evacuee mode choices are calculated, and transit strategy simulation is undertaken to investigate the influence on evacuee mode switching from private automobile to public transit. The results are expected to help emergency administrators to make a transit-oriented strategy for a sustainable evacuation plan, especially for the benefit of carless people.

  15. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tawil, J J; Strenge, D L; Schultz, R W

    1987-11-01

    The threat of release of a hazardous substance into the atmosphere will sometimes require that the population at risk be evacuated. If the substance is particularly hazardous or the release is exceptionally large, then an extensive area may have to be evacuated at substantial cost. In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The report's objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses than would be required based on acceptable risk of health effects alone. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. In this report we develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70 deg, 90 deg, and 180 deg. Appendix tables are provided to allow acceptable evaluation of the cost/dose relationships for a wide variety of scenarios. Guidance and examples are provided in the text to show how these tables can be used.

  16. Disaster Evacuation from Japan's 2011 Tsunami Disaster and the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Reiko

    2013-01-01

    The triple disaster that hit the Tohoku region of Japan on 11 March 2011 triggered a massive human displacement: more than 400,000 people evacuated their homes as a gigantic tsunami induced by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake engulfed the coastal areas, and the following nuclear accident in Fukushima released a large amount of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. This study analyses the disaster response, with a particular focus on evacuation of the population, and social consequences of this complex crisis, based on intensive fieldwork carried out one year after the catastrophe. It reveals that the responses of the Japanese authorities and population were significantly different between a natural disaster and an industrial (man-made) accident. Being prone to both earthquakes and tsunamis, Japan had been preparing itself against such risks for many years. A tsunami alert was immediately issued and the population knew how and where to evacuate. In contrast, the evacuation from the nuclear accident was organised in total chaos, as a severe accident or large-scale evacuation had never been envisaged -let alone exercised- before the disaster. The population was thus forced to flee with no information as to the gravity of the accident or radiation risk. In both cases, the risk perception prior to the catastrophe played a key role in determining the vulnerability of the population at the time of the crisis. While tsunami evacuees are struggling with a slow reconstruction process due to financial difficulties, nuclear evacuees are suffering from uncertainty as to their prospect of return. One year after the accident, the Japanese authorities began to encourage nuclear evacuees to return to the areas contaminated by radiation according to a newly established safety standard. This triggered a vivid controversy within the affected communities, creating a rift between those who trust the government's notion of safety and those who do not. The nuclear disaster has thus

  17. Low-cost evacuated-tube solar collector appendices. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beecher, D.T.

    1980-05-31

    A low cost solar heat energy collector module and array has been designed using the evacuated tube, selective absorber, air cooled concept. Glass tubing as used in fluorescent lamps with automatic sealing methods is a key feature of the evacuated tube design. A molded fiber glass concentrating reflector panel and sheet metal header assembly are proposed. Major design problems involved included the cost of materials and labor, thermal expansion and distortion problems, high stagnation and operating temperatures, isolation, thermal efficiency, sealing, joining, air pressure drop, and weight of the preassembled module. A cost of less than $5 per active square foot of collecting surface has been estimated for materials and labor of the module and its mounting frame.

  18. Polynomial Phase Estimation Based on Adaptive Short-Time Fourier Transform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Fulong; Zhang, Chunjie; Si, Weijian; Wang, Yu; Jiao, Shuhong

    2018-02-13

    Polynomial phase signals (PPSs) have numerous applications in many fields including radar, sonar, geophysics, and radio communication systems. Therefore, estimation of PPS coefficients is very important. In this paper, a novel approach for PPS parameters estimation based on adaptive short-time Fourier transform (ASTFT), called the PPS-ASTFT estimator, is proposed. Using the PPS-ASTFT estimator, both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional searches and error propagation problems, which widely exist in PPSs field, are avoided. In the proposed algorithm, the instantaneous frequency (IF) is estimated by S-transform (ST), which can preserve information on signal phase and provide a variable resolution similar to the wavelet transform (WT). The width of the ASTFT analysis window is equal to the local stationary length, which is measured by the instantaneous frequency gradient (IFG). The IFG is calculated by the principal component analysis (PCA), which is robust to the noise. Moreover, to improve estimation accuracy, a refinement strategy is presented to estimate signal parameters. Since the PPS-ASTFT avoids parameter search, the proposed algorithm can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. The estimation performance, computational cost, and implementation of the PPS-ASTFT are also analyzed. The conducted numerical simulations support our theoretical results and demonstrate an excellent statistical performance of the proposed algorithm.

  19. Evacuation of children - movement on stairs and on Horizontal Plane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larusdottir, Aldis Run; Dederichs, Anne

    2012-01-01

    in full scale evacuation experiments where two age groups 0-2 years and 3-6 years were analyzed separately. It was found that flow through doors, walking speeds and densities were age-dependent and differed strongly from the data in existing literature. The results showed higher walking speeds in spiral...... slower in horizontal plane than adults, however they were keen to run during the evacuations, in the latter case their travel speed increased and exceeded the adults’. Since the evacuation characteristics of children differ in many ways from those of adults, nowadays models badly comprehend...

  20. Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

  1. The effects of resonances on time delay estimation for water leak detection in plastic pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Fabrício C. L.; Brennan, Michael J.; Joseph, Phillip F.; Gao, Yan; Paschoalini, Amarildo T.

    2018-04-01

    In the use of acoustic correlation methods for water leak detection, sensors are placed at pipe access points either side of a suspected leak, and the peak in the cross-correlation function of the measured signals gives the time difference (delay) between the arrival times of the leak noise at the sensors. Combining this information with the speed at which the leak noise propagates along the pipe, gives an estimate for the location of the leak with respect to one of the measurement positions. It is possible for the structural dynamics of the pipe system to corrupt the time delay estimate, which results in the leak being incorrectly located. In this paper, data from test-rigs in the United Kingdom and Canada are used to demonstrate this phenomenon, and analytical models of resonators are coupled with a pipe model to replicate the experimental results. The model is then used to investigate which of the two commonly used correlation algorithms, the Basic Cross-Correlation (BCC) function or the Phase Transform (PHAT), is more robust to the undesirable structural dynamics of the pipe system. It is found that time delay estimation is highly sensitive to the frequency bandwidth over which the analysis is conducted. Moreover, it is found that the PHAT is particularly sensitive to the presence of resonances and can give an incorrect time delay estimate, whereas the BCC function is found to be much more robust, giving a consistently accurate time delay estimate for a range of dynamic conditions.

  2. A novel technique for real-time estimation of edge pedestal density gradients via reflectometer time delay data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, L., E-mail: zeng@fusion.gat.com; Doyle, E. J.; Rhodes, T. L.; Wang, G.; Sung, C.; Peebles, W. A. [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Bobrek, M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6006 (United States)

    2016-11-15

    A new model-based technique for fast estimation of the pedestal electron density gradient has been developed. The technique uses ordinary mode polarization profile reflectometer time delay data and does not require direct profile inversion. Because of its simple data processing, the technique can be readily implemented via a Field-Programmable Gate Array, so as to provide a real-time density gradient estimate, suitable for use in plasma control systems such as envisioned for ITER, and possibly for DIII-D and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak. The method is based on a simple edge plasma model with a linear pedestal density gradient and low scrape-off-layer density. By measuring reflectometer time delays for three adjacent frequencies, the pedestal density gradient can be estimated analytically via the new approach. Using existing DIII-D profile reflectometer data, the estimated density gradients obtained from the new technique are found to be in good agreement with the actual density gradients for a number of dynamic DIII-D plasma conditions.

  3. Nonparametric Estimation of Interval Reliability for Discrete-Time Semi-Markov Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgiadis, Stylianos; Limnios, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we consider a repairable discrete-time semi-Markov system with finite state space. The measure of the interval reliability is given as the probability of the system being operational over a given finite-length time interval. A nonparametric estimator is proposed for the interval...

  4. An Integrated Theory of Prospective Time Interval Estimation: The Role of Cognition, Attention, and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taatgen, Niels A.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Anderson, John

    2007-01-01

    A theory of prospective time perception is introduced and incorporated as a module in an integrated theory of cognition, thereby extending existing theories and allowing predictions about attention and learning. First, a time perception module is established by fitting existing datasets (interval estimation and bisection and impact of secondary…

  5. Impact of time displaced precipitation estimates for on-line updated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements the requirements to the precipitation estimates change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time where the rain intensity hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual...

  6. Estimating the Probability of a Rare Event Over a Finite Time Horizon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; L'Ecuyer, Pierre; Rubino, Gerardo; Tuffin, Bruno

    2007-01-01

    We study an approximation for the zero-variance change of measure to estimate the probability of a rare event in a continuous-time Markov chain. The rare event occurs when the chain reaches a given set of states before some fixed time limit. The jump rates of the chain are expressed as functions of

  7. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  8. Estimating primary production from oxygen time series: A novel approach in the frequency domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, T.J.S.; Maris, T.; Soetaert, K.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Meire, P.; Meysman, F.J.R.

    2015-01-01

    Based on an analysis in the frequency domain of the governing equation of oxygen dynamics in aquatic systems, we derive a new method for estimating gross primary production (GPP) from oxygen time series. The central result of this article is a relation between time averaged GPP and the amplitude of

  9. Nonparametric estimation in an "illness-death" model when all transition times are interval censored

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Halina; Gerds, Thomas; Grøn, Randi

    2013-01-01

    We develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of an irreversible Markov chain on states {0,1,2} from the observations with interval censored times of 0 → 1, 0 → 2 and 1 → 2 transitions. The distinguishing aspect of the data is that, in addition to all transition times ...

  10. Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

    2010-01-01

    Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

  11. Mesospheric temperature estimation from meteor decay times of weak and strong meteor trails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jeong-Han; Kim, Yong Ha; Jee, Geonhwa; Lee, Changsup

    2012-11-01

    Neutral temperatures near the mesopause region were estimated from the decay times of the meteor echoes observed by a VHF meteor radar during a period covering 2007 to 2009 at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. While some previous studies have used all meteor echoes to determine the slope from a height profile of log inverse decay times for temperature estimation, we have divided meteor echoes into weak and strong groups of underdense meteor trails, depending on the strength of estimated relative electron line densities within meteor trails. We found that the slopes from the strong group are inappropriate for temperature estimation because the decay times of strong meteors are considerably scattered, whereas the slopes from the weak group clearly define the variation of decay times with height. We thus utilize the slopes only from the weak group in the altitude region between 86 km and 96 km to estimate mesospheric temperatures. The meteor estimated temperatures show a typical seasonal variation near the mesopause region and the monthly mean temperatures are in good agreement with SABER temperatures within a mean difference of 4.8 K throughout the year. The meteor temperatures, representing typically the region around the altitude of 91 km, are lower on average by 2.1 K than simultaneously measured SATI OH(6-2) rotational temperatures during winter (March-October).

  12. Estimation of Nonlinear Functions of State Vector for Linear Systems with Time-Delays and Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Il Young Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on estimation of a nonlinear function of state vector (NFS in discrete-time linear systems with time-delays and model uncertainties. The NFS represents a multivariate nonlinear function of state variables, which can indicate useful information of a target system for control. The optimal nonlinear estimator of an NFS (in mean square sense represents a function of the receding horizon estimate and its error covariance. The proposed receding horizon filter represents the standard Kalman filter with time-delays and special initial horizon conditions described by the Lyapunov-like equations. In general case to calculate an optimal estimator of an NFS we propose using the unscented transformation. Important class of polynomial NFS is considered in detail. In the case of polynomial NFS an optimal estimator has a closed-form computational procedure. The subsequent application of the proposed receding horizon filter and nonlinear estimator to a linear stochastic system with time-delays and uncertainties demonstrates their effectiveness.

  13. An Embedded Device for Real-Time Noninvasive Intracranial Pressure Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Jonathan M; Fanelli, Andrea; Heldt, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The monitoring of intracranial pressure (ICP) is indicated for diagnosing and guiding therapy in many neurological conditions. Current monitoring methods, however, are highly invasive, limiting their use to the most critically ill patients only. Our goal is to develop and test an embedded device that performs all necessary mathematical operations in real-time for noninvasive ICP (nICP) estimation based on a previously developed model-based approach that uses cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV) and arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveforms. The nICP estimation algorithm along with the required preprocessing steps were implemented on an NXP LPC4337 microcontroller unit (MCU). A prototype device using the MCU was also developed, complete with display, recording functionality, and peripheral interfaces for ABP and CBFV monitoring hardware. The device produces an estimate of mean ICP once per minute and performs the necessary computations in 410 ms, on average. Real-time nICP estimates differed from the original batch-mode MATLAB implementation of theestimation algorithm by 0.63 mmHg (root-mean-square error). We have demonstrated that real-time nICP estimation is possible on a microprocessor platform, which offers the advantages of low cost, small size, and product modularity over a general-purpose computer. These attributes take a step toward the goal of real-time nICP estimation at the patient's bedside in a variety of clinical settings.

  14. A probabilistic model for estimating the waiting time until the simultaneous collapse of two contingencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, C.S.

    1991-01-01

    The Double Contingency Principle (DCP) is widely applied to criticality safety practice in the United States. Most practitioners base their application of the principle on qualitative, intuitive assessments. The recent trend toward probabilistic safety assessments provides a motive to search for a quantitative, probabilistic foundation for the DCP. A Markov model is tractable and leads to relatively simple results. The model yields estimates of mean time to simultaneous collapse of two contingencies as a function of estimates of mean failure times and mean recovery times of two independent contingencies. The model is a tool that can be used to supplement the qualitative methods now used to assess effectiveness of the DCP. (Author)

  15. Estimation of Nuclei Cooling Time by Electrons in Superdense Nonequilibrium Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Kostenko, B F

    2004-01-01

    Estimations of nuclei cooling time by electrons in superdense nonequilibrium plasma formed at cavitation bubble collapse in deuterated acetone have been carried out. The necessity of these computations was stipulated by using in the latest theoretical calculations of nuclear reaction rate in these processes one poorly grounded assumption that electron temperatures remain essentially lower than nuclei ones during thermonuclear synthesis time t_s. The estimations have shown that the initial electron temperatures at the moment of superdense plasma formation with \\rho =100 g/cm^3 turn out to be appreciably lower than the nuclear temperatures, while the nuclei cooling time is of the same order as t_s.

  16. DeepTravel: a Neural Network Based Travel Time Estimation Model with Auxiliary Supervision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Hanyuan; Wu, Hao; Sun, Weiwei; Zheng, Baihua

    2018-01-01

    Estimating the travel time of a path is of great importance to smart urban mobility. Existing approaches are either based on estimating the time cost of each road segment which are not able to capture many cross-segment complex factors, or designed heuristically in a non-learning-based way which fail to utilize the existing abundant temporal labels of the data, i.e., the time stamp of each trajectory point. In this paper, we leverage on new development of deep neural networks and propose a no...

  17. Autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation for DNA microarray time series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choong, Miew Keen; Charbit, Maurice; Yan, Hong

    2009-01-01

    Missing value estimation is important in DNA microarray data analysis. A number of algorithms have been developed to solve this problem, but they have several limitations. Most existing algorithms are not able to deal with the situation where a particular time point (column) of the data is missing entirely. In this paper, we present an autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation method (ARLSimpute) that takes into account the dynamic property of microarray temporal data and the local similarity structures in the data. ARLSimpute is especially effective for the situation where a particular time point contains many missing values or where the entire time point is missing. Experiment results suggest that our proposed algorithm is an accurate missing value estimator in comparison with other imputation methods on simulated as well as real microarray time series datasets.

  18. Influence of hypo- and hyperthermia on death time estimation - A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muggenthaler, H; Hubig, M; Schenkl, S; Mall, G

    2017-09-01

    Numerous physiological and pathological mechanisms can cause elevated or lowered body core temperatures. Deviations from the physiological level of about 37°C can influence temperature based death time estimations. However, it has not been investigated by means of thermodynamics, to which extent hypo- and hyperthermia bias death time estimates. Using numerical simulation, the present study investigates the errors inherent in temperature based death time estimation in case of elevated or lowered body core temperatures before death. The most considerable errors with regard to the normothermic model occur in the first few hours post-mortem. With decreasing body core temperature and increasing post-mortem time the error diminishes and stagnates at a nearly constant level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A Fuzzy Logic-Based Approach for Estimation of Dwelling Times of Panama Metro Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aranzazu Berbey Alvarez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Passenger flow modeling and station dwelling time estimation are significant elements for railway mass transit planning, but system operators usually have limited information to model the passenger flow. In this paper, an artificial-intelligence technique known as fuzzy logic is applied for the estimation of the elements of the origin-destination matrix and the dwelling time of stations in a railway transport system. The fuzzy inference engine used in the algorithm is based in the principle of maximum entropy. The approach considers passengers’ preferences to assign a level of congestion in each car of the train in function of the properties of the station platforms. This approach is implemented to estimate the passenger flow and dwelling times of the recently opened Line 1 of the Panama Metro. The dwelling times obtained from the simulation are compared to real measurements to validate the approach.

  20. Time delay estimation in a reverberant environment by low rate sampling of impulsive acoustic sources

    KAUST Repository

    Omer, Muhammad

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

  1. Sensitivity of Hurst parameter estimation to periodic signals in time series and filtering approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marković, D.; Koch, M.

    2005-09-01

    The influence of the periodic signals in time series on the Hurst parameter estimate is investigated with temporal, spectral and time-scale methods. The Hurst parameter estimates of the simulated periodic time series with a white noise background show a high sensitivity on the signal to noise ratio and for some methods, also on the data length used. The analysis is then carried on to the investigation of extreme monthly river flows of the Elbe River (Dresden) and of the Rhine River (Kaub). Effects of removing the periodic components employing different filtering approaches are discussed and it is shown that such procedures are a prerequisite for an unbiased estimation of H. In summary, our results imply that the first step in a time series long-correlation study should be the separation of the deterministic components from the stochastic ones. Otherwise wrong conclusions concerning possible memory effects may be drawn.

  2. Seeking safety: predictors of hurricane evacuation of community-dwelling families affected by Alzheimer's disease or a related disorder in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Janelle J; Richey, Elizabeth Danforth; Castañeda, Heide

    2013-11-01

    This article explores how dyads of 186 community-dwelling individuals with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease or a related disorder (ADRD) and their caregivers (dyads) plan to respond to hurricane evacuation warnings in South Florida. Predictors of dyad evacuation for a category 1-3 storm include (1) a younger age of the person with an ADRD diagnosis, (2) the caregiver living in a different residence than the person with ADRD, (3) lack of hurricane shutters, and (4) lower income. A dyad is more likely to evacuate in a category 4 or 5 hurricane if there is (1) a younger age person with an ADRD diagnosis, (2) a more recent diagnosis of ADRD, (3) a residence in an evacuation zone, and if (4) they report needing a shelter. Emergency management teams, especially those who assist with special needs shelters or other outreach programs for people with cognitive disabilities, can use these guidelines to estimate service usage and needs.

  3. An Efficient Code-Timing Estimator for DS-CDMA Systems over Resolvable Multipath Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of training-based code-timing estimation for the asynchronous direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA system. We propose a modified large-sample maximum-likelihood (MLSML estimator that can be used for the code-timing estimation for the DS-CDMA systems over the resolvable multipath channels in closed form. Simulation results show that MLSML can be used to provide a high correct acquisition probability and a high estimation accuracy. Simulation results also show that MLSML can have very good near-far resistant capability due to employing a data model similar to that for adaptive array processing where strong interferences can be suppressed.

  4. Simultaneous Robust Fault and State Estimation for Linear Discrete-Time Uncertain Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feten Gannouni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of robust simultaneous fault and state estimation for linear uncertain discrete-time systems with unknown faults which affect both the state and the observation matrices. Using transformation of the original system, a new robust proportional integral filter (RPIF having an error variance with an optimized guaranteed upper bound for any allowed uncertainty is proposed to improve robust estimation of unknown time-varying faults and to improve robustness against uncertainties. In this study, the minimization problem of the upper bound of the estimation error variance is formulated as a convex optimization problem subject to linear matrix inequalities (LMI for all admissible uncertainties. The proportional and the integral gains are optimally chosen by solving the convex optimization problem. Simulation results are given in order to illustrate the performance of the proposed filter, in particular to solve the problem of joint fault and state estimation.

  5. Own-wage labor supply elasticities: variation across time and estimation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Bargain

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There is a huge variation in the size of labor supply elasticities in the literature, which hampers policy analysis. While recent studies show that preference heterogeneity across countries explains little of this variation, we focus on two other important features: observation period and estimation method. We start with a thorough survey of existing evidence for both Western Europe and the USA, over a long period and from different empirical approaches. Then, our meta-analysis attempts to disentangle the role of time changes and estimation methods. We highlight the key role of time changes, documenting the incredible fall in labor supply elasticities since the 1980s not only for the USA but also in the EU. In contrast, we find no compelling evidence that the choice of estimation method explains variation in elasticity estimates. From our analysis, we derive important guidelines for policy simulations.

  6. H∞ state estimation of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Haibo; Cao, Jinde; Kurths, Jürgen; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir

    2018-03-01

    This paper addresses the problem of H ∞ state estimation for a class of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays. Under the framework of Filippov solution, the stochastic memristor-based neural networks are transformed into systems with interval parameters. The present paper is the first to investigate the H ∞ state estimation problem for continuous-time Itô-type stochastic memristor-based neural networks. By means of Lyapunov functionals and some stochastic technique, sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the estimation error system is asymptotically stable in the mean square with a prescribed H ∞ performance. An explicit expression of the state estimator gain is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Compared with other results, our results reduce control gain and control cost effectively. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Remaining Useful Life Estimation using Time Trajectory Tracking and Support Vector Machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galar, D; Kumar, U; Lee, J; Zhao, W

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, a novel RUL prediction method inspired by feature maps and SVM classifiers is proposed. The historical instances of a system with life-time condition data are used to create a classification by SVM hyper planes. For a test instance of the same system, whose RUL is to be estimated, degradation speed is evaluated by computing the minimal distance defined based on the degradation trajectories, i.e. the approach of the system to the hyper plane that segregates good and bad condition data at different time horizon. Therefore, the final RUL of a specific component can be estimated and global RUL information can then be obtained by aggregating the multiple RUL estimations using a density estimation method.

  8. Estimating the time evolution of NMR systems via a quantum-speed-limit-like expression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamizar, D. V.; Duzzioni, E. I.; Leal, A. C. S.; Auccaise, R.

    2018-05-01

    Finding the solutions of the equations that describe the dynamics of a given physical system is crucial in order to obtain important information about its evolution. However, by using estimation theory, it is possible to obtain, under certain limitations, some information on its dynamics. The quantum-speed-limit (QSL) theory was originally used to estimate the shortest time in which a Hamiltonian drives an initial state to a final one for a given fidelity. Using the QSL theory in a slightly different way, we are able to estimate the running time of a given quantum process. For that purpose, we impose the saturation of the Anandan-Aharonov bound in a rotating frame of reference where the state of the system travels slower than in the original frame (laboratory frame). Through this procedure it is possible to estimate the actual evolution time in the laboratory frame of reference with good accuracy when compared to previous methods. Our method is tested successfully to predict the time spent in the evolution of nuclear spins 1/2 and 3/2 in NMR systems. We find that the estimated time according to our method is better than previous approaches by up to four orders of magnitude. One disadvantage of our method is that we need to solve a number of transcendental equations, which increases with the system dimension and parameter discretization used to solve such equations numerically.

  9. Offline estimation of decay time for an optical cavity with a low pass filter cavity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallapur, Abhijit G; Boyson, Toby K; Petersen, Ian R; Harb, Charles C

    2012-08-01

    This Letter presents offline estimation results for the decay-time constant for an experimental Fabry-Perot optical cavity for cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The cavity dynamics are modeled in terms of a low pass filter (LPF) with unity DC gain. This model is used by an extended Kalman filter (EKF) along with the recorded light intensity at the output of the cavity in order to estimate the decay-time constant. The estimation results using the LPF cavity model are compared to those obtained using the quadrature model for the cavity presented in previous work by Kallapur et al. The estimation process derived using the LPF model comprises two states as opposed to three states in the quadrature model. When considering the EKF, this means propagating two states and a (2×2) covariance matrix using the LPF model, as opposed to propagating three states and a (3×3) covariance matrix using the quadrature model. This gives the former model a computational advantage over the latter and leads to faster execution times for the corresponding EKF. It is shown in this Letter that the LPF model for the cavity with two filter states is computationally more efficient, converges faster, and is hence a more suitable method than the three-state quadrature model presented in previous work for real-time estimation of the decay-time constant for the cavity.

  10. Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Šebo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables. Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is sufficient to use simpler models. In addition to the testing of models we developed the method (tested on selected simple model which enable us in actual real time (with limited data set to indicate the optimal replacement time. The indicated time moment is close enough to the optimal replacement time t*.

  11. Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Anyfantaki

    2011-01-01

    analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

  12. Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capek Jan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the differences between parameters estimated using real-time and those estimated with revised data. The models used are New Keynesian DSGE models of the Czech, Polish, Hungarian, Swiss, and Swedish small open economies in interaction with the euro area. The paper also offers an analysis of data revisions of GDP growth and inflation and trend revisions of interest rates.

  13. Collective Odor Source Estimation and Search in Time-Variant Airflow Environments Using Mobile Robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots’ search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot’s detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection–diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method. PMID:22346650

  14. Optimal State Estimation for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Systems with Missing Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the optimal linear estimation for a class of direct-time Markov jump systems with missing observations. An observer-based approach of fault detection and isolation (FDI is investigated as a detection mechanic of fault case. For systems with known information, a conditional prediction of observations is applied and fault observations are replaced and isolated; then, an FDI linear minimum mean square error estimation (LMMSE can be developed by comprehensive utilizing of the correct information offered by systems. A recursive equation of filtering based on the geometric arguments can be obtained. Meanwhile, a stability of the state estimator will be guaranteed under appropriate assumption.

  15. Methodologies for estimating one-time hazardous waste generation for capacity generation for capacity assurance planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonn, B.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Elliot, S.; Peretz, J.; Bohm, R.; Hendrucko, B.

    1994-04-01

    This report contains descriptions of methodologies to be used to estimate the one-time generation of hazardous waste associated with five different types of remediation programs: Superfund sites, RCRA Corrective Actions, Federal Facilities, Underground Storage Tanks, and State and Private Programs. Estimates of the amount of hazardous wastes generated from these sources to be shipped off-site to commercial hazardous waste treatment and disposal facilities will be made on a state by state basis for the years 1993, 1999, and 2013. In most cases, estimates will be made for the intervening years, also

  16. Online Estimation of Time-Varying Volatility Using a Continuous-Discrete LMS Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Oksman

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The following paper addresses a problem of inference in financial engineering, namely, online time-varying volatility estimation. The proposed method is based on an adaptive predictor for the stock price, built from an implicit integration formula. An estimate for the current volatility value which minimizes the mean square prediction error is calculated recursively using an LMS algorithm. The method is then validated on several synthetic examples as well as on real data. Throughout the illustration, the proposed method is compared with both UKF and offline volatility estimation.

  17. Application on technique of joint time-frequency analysis of seismic signal's first arrival estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chaoyang; Liu Junmin; Fan Yanfang; Ji Guohua

    2008-01-01

    Joint time-frequency analysis is conducted to construct one joint density function of time and frequency. It can open out one signal's frequency components and their evolvements. It is the new evolvement of Fourier analysis. In this paper, according to the characteristic of seismic signal's noise, one estimation method of seismic signal's first arrival based on triple correlation of joint time-frequency spectrum is introduced, and the results of experiment and conclusion are presented. (authors)

  18. Time estimate (topening + tclosing) of shutter of an X-ray equipment using a digital chronometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quaresma, D.S.; Oliveira, P.H.T.M.; Gallo, V.F.M.; Jordao, B.O.; Carvalho, R.J.; Cardoso, R.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P.

    2014-01-01

    In this work the measurement of time t opening + t closing opening and closing the shutter of Pantak HF160 X-ray equipment was performed. It is understood by the shutter device responsible for allowing or not the flow of X-rays that are produced by the X-ray tube through the orifice of a shield. To estimate the running time for a digital chronometer calibrated in the Time Service Division (DSHO) National Observatory (ON) was used. (author)

  19. Nonlinear systems time-varying parameter estimation: Application to induction motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenne, Godpromesse [Laboratoire d' Automatique et d' Informatique Appliquee (LAIA), Departement de Genie Electrique, IUT FOTSO Victor, Universite de Dschang, B.P. 134 Bandjoun (Cameroon); Ahmed-Ali, Tarek [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Ingenieurs des Etudes et Techniques d' Armement (ENSIETA), 2 Rue Francois Verny, 29806 Brest Cedex 9 (France); Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F. [Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemes (L2S), C.N.R.S-SUPELEC, Universite Paris XI, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Arzande, Amir [Departement Energie, Ecole Superieure d' Electricite-SUPELEC, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2008-11-15

    In this paper, an algorithm for time-varying parameter estimation for a large class of nonlinear systems is presented. The proof of the convergence of the estimates to their true values is achieved using Lyapunov theories and does not require that the classical persistent excitation condition be satisfied by the input signal. Since the induction motor (IM) is widely used in several industrial sectors, the algorithm developed is potentially useful for adjusting the controller parameters of variable speed drives. The method proposed is simple and easily implementable in real-time. The application of this approach to on-line estimation of the rotor resistance of IM shows a rapidly converging estimate in spite of measurement noise, discretization effects, parameter uncertainties (e.g. inaccuracies on motor inductance values) and modeling inaccuracies. The robustness analysis for this IM application also revealed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the stator resistance variations within a wide range. The merits of the proposed algorithm in the case of on-line time-varying rotor resistance estimation are demonstrated via experimental results in various operating conditions of the induction motor. The experimental results obtained demonstrate that the application of the proposed algorithm to update on-line the parameters of an adaptive controller (e.g. IM and synchronous machines adaptive control) can improve the efficiency of the industrial process. The other interesting features of the proposed method include fault detection/estimation and adaptive control of IM and synchronous machines. (author)

  20. Fast Estimation Method of Space-Time Two-Dimensional Positioning Parameters Based on Hadamard Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiwen Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The estimation speed of positioning parameters determines the effectiveness of the positioning system. The time of arrival (TOA and direction of arrival (DOA parameters can be estimated by the space-time two-dimensional multiple signal classification (2D-MUSIC algorithm for array antenna. However, this algorithm needs much time to complete the two-dimensional pseudo spectral peak search, which makes it difficult to apply in practice. Aiming at solving this problem, a fast estimation method of space-time two-dimensional positioning parameters based on Hadamard product is proposed in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM system, and the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB is also presented. Firstly, according to the channel frequency domain response vector of each array, the channel frequency domain estimation vector is constructed using the Hadamard product form containing location information. Then, the autocorrelation matrix of the channel response vector for the extended array element in frequency domain and the noise subspace are calculated successively. Finally, by combining the closed-form solution and parameter pairing, the fast joint estimation for time delay and arrival direction is accomplished. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can significantly reduce the computational complexity and guarantee that the estimation accuracy is not only better than estimating signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT algorithm and 2D matrix pencil (MP algorithm but also close to 2D-MUSIC algorithm. Moreover, the proposed algorithm also has certain adaptability to multipath environment and effectively improves the ability of fast acquisition of location parameters.