Full Text Available The soil organic carbon (SOC stocks (Mg ha–1 ofautomorphic mineral (9 soil groups, hydromorphic mineral (7, and lowland organic soils (4 are given for the soil cover or solum layer as a whole and also for its epipedon (topsoil layer. The SOC stocks for forest, arable lands, and grasslands and for the entire Estonian soil cover were calculated on the basis of the mean SOC stock and distribution area of the respective soil type. In the Estonian soil cover (42 400 km2, a total of 593.8 ± 36.9 Tg of SOC is retained, with 64.9% (385.3 ± 27.5 Tg in the epipedon layer (O, H, and A horizons and 35.1% in the subsoil (B and E horizons. The pedo-ecological regularities of SOC retention in soils are analysed against the background of the Estonian soil ordination net.
Distel, Brenda D.
This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…
This issue of Keying In, the newsletter of the National Business Education Association, focuses upon teaching young adults how to develop both investment strategies and an understanding of the stock market. The first article, "Sound Investing Know-How: A Must for Today's Young Adults," describes how young adults can plan for their own…
Barro, Robert J.
Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power for U.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and even in the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramatically out-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equity component of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock market value. Although the stock market did not predict accurately after the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statistically significant. Parallel relationships for Canada rai...
accommodates stock market in Ethiopia is a timely issue to catch up with the global trend, given the ... designed to trade stocks except for the fragmented and unregulated stock trading in a dealer market. ..... Monetary Policy Instruments in Ethiopia (Economic Research Department, National. Bank of Ethiopia) pp. 1-18. 39.
Mantho, M. [ed.
This has been a nerve wracking season as we looked at inadequate inventory spurring prices ever upward. We have watched the American Petroleum Association`s figures on refiner stocks with considerable dismay as they consistantly fell behind year ago inventory. The anxiety extended to how much oil was in marketers` bulkplants and finally in customer tanks. And so, we asked our reporting panel to help us get a fix on how much oil was available for our customers. We asked the questions in early November and so all our figures are for that month. First we asked the capacity of their bulk tanks. And then how many gallons they had on hand November 1, 1996 and the same date of 1995. From these figures, we were able to get estimates of oil inventories. Marketers bulk tanks were 47.5% filled on November 1 which meant that there was on hand at this level, 36 gallons of heating oil for each customer. At that point in the season, customer tanks were 58% filled which translated into 218 gallons.
Luo, Jiawen; Chen, Langnan; Liu, Hao
We examine the distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity by employing the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model and three-minute frequency data from Chinese stock markets. We find that the BCPE distribution within the GAMLSS framework fits the distributions of stock market liquidity well with the diagnosis test. We also find that the stock market index exhibits a significant impact on the distributions of stock market liquidity. The stock market liquidity usually exhibits a positive skewness, but a normal distribution at a low level of stock market index and a high-peak and fat-tail shape at a high level of stock market index.
Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna
This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.
Hong, Harrison; Stein, Jeremy C
...); we also see longer-run fundamental reversion—the tendency for "glamour" stocks with high ratios of market value to earnings, cashflows, or book value to deliver weak returns over the subsequent several years...
The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.
Malkiel, B G
A stock market is said to be efficient if it accurately reflects all relevant information in determining security prices. Critics have asserted that share prices are far too volatile to be explained by changes in objective economic events-the October 1987 crash being a case in point. Although the evidence is not unambiguous, reports of the death of the efficient market hypothesis appear premature.
Truong Dong Loc, [No Value; Lanjouw, Ger; Lensink, Robert
This article reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. This article
Dong Loc, T.; Lanjouw, G.; Lensink, B.W.
This article reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. This article
Truong, Loc Dong; Lanjouw, Ger; Lensink, Robert
Abstract This paper reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. The article focuses on the question whether the market is weak-form efficient. An important element of the investigation concerns the possible bias of the results caused by the thin trading that c...
Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim
Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.
Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.
Hakim Ali Kanasro
Full Text Available A market is to be considered as liquid when large transactions are executed with a small impact on price. This paper identifies the position of stock market liquidity at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE during the period from 1985 to 2006. The analysis is based on using annual data of the listed firms at KSE and the data available on economic survey of the Government of Pakistan and other sources. For measurements of liquidity at KSE we have used three measuring tools as; Liquidity Analysis, Turnover Ratio and Size of Market to determine the liquidity issues at KSE. We provide the evidences of less stock market liquidity or to say illiquidity at Karachi Stock Exchange during the sample period. Consequently, market is still for behind in its efficiency, especially in liquidity hence it fails to attract new investors. We find that less liquidity causes less synchronicity in prices attracting less inventors and results is low size of market.
Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi
Full Text Available Emerging stock markets are said to become efficient with time. This study seeks to investigate this assertion by analyzing long - memory persistence in 8 African stock markets covering the period from 28 August 2000 to 28 August 2015. The Hurst exponent is used as our efficiency measure which is evaluated by the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA. Our findings show strong evidence of long - memory persistence in the markets studied therefore violating the weak - form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH.
The oil price risk refers to the uncertainty of the change in oil price and the stock markets studied in this paper are the so called emerging ones. Fourteen countries are selected for a quantitative research on the link between the oil price fluctuation and the stock market performance. A multi-factor model is applied and specifically an OLS regression is conducted separately for the data on Brazilian stock market. As a result, the rising oil price decreases stock price in oil-importing coun...
It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...
Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.
This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much
Goda, Gopi Shah; Shoven, John B.; Slavov, Sita Nataraj
Media reports predicted that the stock market decline in October 2008 would cause changes in retirement intentions, due to declines in retirement assets. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and retirement intentions during 1998-2008, a period that includes the…
In this article, Hui Guo shows that, if stock volatility follows an AR(1) process, stock market returns relate positively to past volatility but relate negatively to contemporaneous volatility in Merton’s (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model helps explain the recent finding that stock market volatility drives out returns in forecasting real gross domestic product growth because the predictive power of returns is hampered by their positive correlation with past volatilit...
Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge
This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.
Full Text Available On the Croatian stock market liquidity has never been in the focus of academic research thus we find it necessary to observe liquidity at the aggregate level. This paper observes multi-dimensional liquidity through the impact of turnover on price change together with several one-dimensional measures. In our empirical research we applythe illiquidity measureto seven different stock markets. We focus on the Croatian stock market as compared to other markets in the Central and Eastern Europe and German market. The results of the research indicate a substantial level of illiquidity in the Croatian and other developing markets.
Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.
Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.
Full Text Available This study is the first to empirically examine stock market manipulation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The dataset contains 40 cases of market manipulation from 1996 to 2009 that were successfully prosecuted by the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission. Manipulation is found to negatively impact market efficiency measures such as the bid-ask spread and volatility. Markets appear incapable of efficiently responding to the presence of manipulators and are characterised by information asymmetry. Manipulators were successfully able to raise prices and exit the market. This finding contradicts views that trade-based manipulation is entirely unprofitable and self-deterring. The victimisation of information-seeking investors and the market as a whole provides a strong rationale for all jurisdictions, including Australia, to have effective laws that prohibit manipulation and for robust enforcement of those laws to further deter market manipulation.
Huen, Tan Bee; Arsad, Zainudin; Chun, Ooi Po
Realizing the greater risk by the increase in the level of financial market integration, this study investigates the dynamic of international and regional stock markets co-movement among Asian countries with the world leading market, the US. The data utilized in this study comprises of weekly closing prices for four stock indices, that consists of two developing markets (Malaysia and China) and two developed markets (Japan and the US), and encompasses the period from January 1996 to December 2012. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with the BEKK parameterization is employed to investigate the mean and volatility spillover effects among the selected stock indices. The results show significant mean spillover not only from the larger developed markets to smaller developing markets but also from the smaller developing markets to larger developed markets. Volatility spillover between the developed markets is found to be smaller than that between the developing markets. Conditional correlations among the stock markets are found to increase over the sample period. The findings of significant mean and volatility spillovers are considered as bad news for international investors as it reduces the benefit from portfolio diversification but act as useful information for investors to be more aware in diversifying their investment or stock selection.
Full Text Available The 1990s became a period of long-term recovery, the main driving force of which was the high-tech companies of the so-called «new economy», mainly associated with information technology and Internet at the global stock market. Such innovations have led to unrealistic expectations of the profitability of new companies from the sale of goods and services on the Internet. This became a prerequisite for a speculative boom in equity markets in developed financial systems. The boom intensified the mass privatization of state-owned enterprises in UK, Germany, France and some other countries. The capitalization of the global stock market increased more than ten times although the world GDP grew only 2.5 times during two decades, from 1980 to 2000. Though the stock market is the source of capital only in the countries with the Anglo-American model of financial markets (for countries of continental Europe and Japan such sources are bank loans, stock markets increased in all countries with developed financial systems. The systematic analysis of such key indicators as market capitalization and liquidity is required for an objective assessment of such rise in stock markets. But statistical information at stock markets is often not systematized and fragmentary. Therefore, the author (based on the official statistics of such international financial organizations as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Federation of Exchanges has calculated and systematically analyzed capitalization and liquidity as the main indicators of the stock market for the largest countries with developed financial systems (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan. The paper displays the differences in the mechanisms of attraction of capital determined by the different models of financial markets (decentralized Anglo-American and centralized European as well as the features of the composition of the main investors in the world stock markets.
Jafari, G. R.; Movahed, M. S.; Fazeli, S. M.; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza; Masoudi, S. F.
We investigate the average frequency of positive slope να+ crossing for the returns of market prices. The method is based on stochastic processes in which no scaling feature is explicitly required. Using this method we define a new quantity to quantify the stage of development and activity of stock exchanges. We compare the Tehran and western stock markets and show that some, such as the Tehran (TEPIX) and New Zealand (NZX) stock exchanges, are emerging, and also that TEPIX is a non-active market and is financially motivated to absorb capital.
Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.
Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that
Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.
Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that
Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Piercey, Victor I.; Greene-Hunley, Stephanie
This article describes two different projects using the stock market as a context for learning. For both projects, students "bought" shares in individual companies, tracked stock prices for a period of time, and then "sold" their shares at a gain or loss. The projects are adaptable for students in late elementary school through…
Júlio Lobão; Cátia Da Mota Lopes
.... Using a monthly sample that goes from January 1988 to April 2012, the most extensive sample ever used for the analysis of momentum profitability in the Portuguese Stock Market, we construct 32 different strategies...
Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min
In a stock market, the price fluctuations are interactive, that is, one listed company can influence others. In this paper, we seek to study the influence relationships among listed companies by constructing a directed network on the basis of Chinese stock market. This influence network shows distinct topological properties, particularly, a few large companies that can lead the tendency of stock market are recognized. Furthermore, by analyzing the subnetworks of listed companies distributed in several significant economic sectors, it is found that the influence relationships are totally different from one economic sector to another, of which three types of connectivity as well as hub-like listed companies are identified. In addition, the rankings of listed companies obtained from the centrality metrics of influence network are compared with that according to the assets, which gives inspiration to uncover and understand the importance of listed companies in the stock market. These empirical results are meaning...
Md Sharif Hossain
Full Text Available We evaluate how stock market return volatility behaves with respect to socioeconomic factors namely- interest rate volatility, foreign exchange rate volatility, S &P 500 index volatility, broad money supply volatility, per capita GDP, domestic investment, industry value addition, tertiary level of education, urbanization, and strike and blockades using time series data from 1976-2015. We find that interest rate volatility has significant positive impact on stock market return volatility where broad money supply volatility, foreign exchange rate volatility, tertiary level of education, and domestic investment have significant negative impact on stock market volatility based on stepwise regression. Therefore, increase in tertiary level of education and domestic investment makes the stock market more stable. From the estimated result of VAR model, results show no short run causality among these variables.
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market articipation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed articipation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....
In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.
Shiller, R J
If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.
This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…
Venkat R. Eleswarapu
We find that annual excess returns on the stock market index are negatively related to the returns of glamour stocks in the previous 36-month period. In contrast, neither returns of value stocks nor aggregate stock market returns, purged of glamour stock effects, have any predictive power. In addition, the excess returns on the aggregate market are negatively skewed when the prior returns of glamour stocks are high. Finally, the inclusion of term premium, default premium, aggregate dividend y...
Andersen, Steffen; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper
participation costs cause non-participation. We have three key findings. First, windfall wealth has a positive effect on participation. Second, the majority of households do not react to sizeable windfalls by entering the stock market, but hold on to substantial safe assets—even over longer horizons. Third......, the majority of households inheriting stock holdings actively sell the entire portfolio. Overall, these findings suggest that participation by many individuals is unlikely to be constrained by financial participation costs....
Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra
To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions ...
Full Text Available Testing the hypothesis of informational efficiency is a permanent preoccupation of researchers because the theories and the models of modern finance are based on it. This paper presents the results obtained after testing the efficiency hypothesis, in the weak form, for the European stock market of the companies that belong to the economic steel sub-sector. Following the use of both linear and non-linear tests of autocorrelation of returns we can conclude that the European stock market in the economic steel sub-sector is inefficient from an informational point of view and the investors in these stocks may obtain better results than those of the European market in general.
In this era, efficient market hypothesis has become a very important theory for all the investors who wish to hold or plan to have an international diversified portfolio. As today, all the world economies and markets are globally getting connected, and investors have all the opportunities to invest internationally, so the understanding of market efficiency concept is gaining greater importance for all kinds of investors. In this research I have test the weak form hypothesis and random walk hy...
Full Text Available This study examines the stock market integration among major stock markets of emerging Asia-Pacific economies, viz. India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, and Indonesia. The Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on the vector error correction model (VECM approach, and variance decomposition analysis were used to investigate the dynamic linkages between markets. Cointegration test confirmed a well-defined long-run equilibrium relationship among the major stock markets, implying that there exists a common force, such as arbitrage activity, which brings these stock markets together in the long run. The results of Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on VECM and variance decomposition analysis revealed the stock market interdependencies and dynamic interactions among the selected emerging Asia-Pacific economies. This result implies that investors can gain feasible benefits from international portfolio diversification in the short run. On the whole, the study results suggest that although long-term diversification benefits from exposure to these markets might be limited, short-run benefits might exist due to substantial transitory fluctuations.
Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš
In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.
Olivier Blanchard; Changyong Rhee; Lawrence Summers
Should managers, when making investment decisions, follow the signals given by the stock market even if those do not coincide with their own assessments of fundamental value? This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and examines the empirical evidence, constructing and using a new US time series of data on the q ratio from 1900 to 1988. We decompose q - - the ratio of the market value of corporate capital to its replacement cost - - into the product of two terms, reflecting "fundamentals"...
Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng
This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describi...
van Rooij, Maarten; Lusardi, Annamaria; Alessie, Rob
We have devised two special modules for De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey to measure financial literacy and study its relationship to stock market participation. We find that the majority of respondents display basic financial knowledge and have some grasp of concepts such as interest
education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...
... means— (1) Passive foreign investment company (PFIC) stock that is regularly traded, as defined in... foreign investment company, that stock will be treated as marketable stock owned by that RIC for purposes... defined in section 1298(a), stock in any passive foreign investment company, that stock will be treated as...
Mustapha Chaffai; Imed Medhioub
.... Based on a questionnaire distributed to the Tunisian investors in the stock market, and by using the Multiple Correspondence analysis, we focus to explain how the behavioral finance can affect Tunisian stock market...
Full Text Available Empirical studies show that correlation between national stock markets increased and the benefits of global portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the global stock market crash of 1987. The 1987 and 2008 crashes are the two most important global stock market crashes since the 1929 Great depression. Although the effects of the 1987 crash on the comovements of national stock markets have been investigated extensively, the effects of the 2008 crash have not been studied sufficiently. In this paper we study this issue with a research sample that includes the U.S stock market and twenty European stock markets. We find that correlation between the twenty-one stock markets increased and the benefits of portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the 2008 stock market crash.
Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte
This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk......-return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight......-to-safety. The strength of the trade-off is strongest for own country flight-to-safety episodes. The risk-return trade-off is not significantly influenced by recession periods or the recent sovereign debt crisis. The main results hold for flight to gold instead of to bonds....
Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the fractal structure of the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns. The presence of long memory components in asset returns provides evidence against the weak-form of stock market efficiency. The starting working hypothesis that there is no long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns is tested by applying the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS (1992 test, Lo’s (1991 modified rescaled range (R/S test, and the wavelet ordinary least squares (WOLS estimator of Jensen (1999. The research showed that the WOLS estimator may lead to different conclusions regarding long memory presence in the stock returns from the KPSS and unit root tests or Lo’s R/S test. Furthermore, it proved that the fractal structure of individual stock returns may be masked in aggregated stock market returns (i.e. in returns of stock index. The main finding of the paper is that both the Croatian stock index Crobex and individual stocks in this index exhibit long memory. Long memory is identified for some stocks in the Hungarian stock market as well, but not for the stock market index BUX. Based on the results of the long memory tests, it can be concluded that while the Hungarian stock market is weakform efficient, the Croatian stock market is not.
Meremäe, Kadrin; Roasto, Mati; Kuusik, Sirje; Ots, Meelis; Henno, Merike
In response to public concern, this study assessed the fatty acid (FA) composition of blended spreads, margarines and shortenings in the Estonian retail market in 2011. Special attention was paid to the trans fatty acids (TFA) composition. The changes in these characteristics of selected dietary fats in the market over recent years are also presented. Twenty-six edible fat brands, available in the Estonian retail market in 2011, were purchased and FA compositions were analyzed by chromatography. Saturated fatty acids (SFA) were the dominant group of FAs for all blended spreads (49.6 to 65.8%), and for the majority of shortenings (from 21.1 to 54.6%). Cis monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) were the dominant group of FAs for the majority of margarines, ranging from 25.3% to 50.5%. The total TFA for blended spreads varied from 1.18% to 9.08%, for margarines from 0.04% to 34.96% and for shortenings from 0.14% to 39.50%. Octadecenoic (C18:1) isomers were the main TFA found. Compared to 2008/2009, the industrially produced TFA (IP-TFA) content in several of the dietary fat brands was much reduced in 2011. This voluntary reformulation was probably a response to consumer demand associated with a public health campaign directed against IP-TFA in Estonian foods, and were mainly achieved by replacing TFA with SFA C12:0-C16:0. Present paper is directed toward public health related institutions and food industries producing foods with potentially high contents of trans fatty acids (TFA). According to the public concern TFA content in domestic blended spreads has declined significantly over the past 3 y in Estonia. The reduction in the TFA content was achieved by replacing TFA with saturated fatty acids (SFA) (C12:0-C16:0). To shift food composition toward healthier product formulations, mandatory labeling of the sum of IP-TFA and SFA (C12:0-C16:0) was recommended. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®
Faux, David A.; Hearn, Stephen
Students are interested in money. Personal finance is an important issue for most students, especially as they move into university education and take a greater control of their own finances. Many are also interested in stock markets and their ability to allow someone to make, and lose, large sums of money, with their interest fueled by the boom in technology-based stocks of 2000/2001 followed by their subsequent dramatic collapse and the publicizing of so-called "rogue-traders." There is also a much greater ownership of stocks by families following public offerings, stock-based savings products, and the ability to trade stocks online. Consequently, there has been a steady growth of finance and finance-related courses available within degree programs in response to the student demand, with many students motivated by the huge salaries commanded by those with a successful career in the financial sector. We report here details of a joint project between Charterhouse School and the University of Surrey designed to exploit the excitement of finance to teach elements of the high school (age 16-18) curriculum through modeling and simulation.
Fischer, Marcel; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne
We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels are not h......We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels...... are not harmonized because poorer agents mainly use their transfer income to finance present consumption. (ii) Since the evolution of the economy determines both the level of tax revenues and the evolution of the stock market, transfer income is subject to stock market risk. Hence, poorer agents optimally reduce...
... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Mark to market election for marketable stock. 1....1296-1 Mark to market election for marketable stock. (a) Definitions—(1) Eligible RIC. An eligible RIC... stock, the excess, if any, of— (A) The amount of mark to market gain included in gross income of the...
Full Text Available Purpose of the article is to disentangle different calendar effects which leave efficiency holes in Lithuanian market. This paper presents and tests if commonly described seasonal patterns exist in Lithuanian stock market. Analysis of three different sections: period-of-the-year; week-of-the-month and day-of-the-week, suggests that calendar effects do exist in this market. The multitude of explanations for the seasonal effect leaves the reader confused about its primary cause(s: is it tax-loss selling, window dressing, information, bid-ask bounce, or a combination of these causes? The confusion arises, in part, because evidence has generally been presented in support of a particular hypothesis though the same evidence may be consistent with another hypothesis. Methodology/methods are logical and systemic analysis of research literature based on the comparative and generalization methods as well as statistical methods. Scientific aim of the article is the lack of arguments questioning if market prices operating system is fully effective. Novelty of the paper is to the answer to the question what seasonal anomalies are also present in the stock market of new open economy countries. Findings show that using this modified strategy investor could achieve 20.7% compounded annual growth rate versus 7.8% achieved using simply holding stocks throughout. The hypothesis asserts that returns generally will be greater following the “January effect”. There is limited amount of data for constructing robust seasonal strategies so we modified Buy and Hold strategy with simple rules of using best and worst months to show how they influence OMXV index performance. In the conclusions, empirical results using stock index returns for 2000 - 2010 support the hypothesis in Lithuaian stock market. Abnormal activity of OMXV index’s performance is found in the end of summer and throughout autumn. August is best performer of the year while October is
Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng
The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.
Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Charfeddine, Lanouar; Khediri, Karim Ben
This paper investigates the time-varying levels of weak-form market efficiency for the GCC stock markets over the period spanning from May 2005 to September 2013. We use two empirical approaches: (1) the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model with state space time varying parameter (Kalman filter), and (2) a rolling technique sample test of the fractional long memory parameter d. As long memory estimation methods, we use the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) technique, the modified R/S statistic, the exact local whittle (ELW) and the feasible Exact Local Whittle (FELW) methods. Moreover, we use the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) multiple structural breaks technique to test and date the time varying behavior of stock market efficiency. Empirical results show that GCC markets have different degrees of time-varying efficiency, and also have experiencing periods of efficiency improvement. Results also show evidence of structural breaks in all GCC markets. Moreover, we observe that the recent financial shocks such as Arab spring and subprime crises have a significant impact on the time path evolution of market efficiency.
Koljonen, Marja-Liisa; Gross, Riho; Koskiniemi, Jarmo
For responsible fisheries management of threatened species, it is essential to know the composition of catches and the extent to which fisheries exploit weak wild populations. The threatened Estonian, Finnish and Russian sea trout populations in the Gulf of Finland are targets of mixed-stock fisheries. The fish may originate from rivers with varying production capacities, from different countries, and they may also have either a wild or hatchery origin. In order to resolve the composition of Finnish coastal sea trout catches, we created a standardized baseline dataset of 15 DNA microsatellite loci for 59 sea trout populations around the Gulf of Finland and tested its resolution for mixed-stock analysis of 1372 captured fish. The baseline dataset provided sufficient resolution for reliable mixture analysis at regional group level, and also for most of the individual rivers stocks. The majority (76-80%) of the total catch originated from Finnish sea trout populations, 6-9% came from Russian and 12-15% from Estonian populations. Nearly all Finnish trout in the catch were of hatchery origin, while the Russian and Estonian trout were mostly of wild origin. The proportion of fish in the Finnish catches that originated from rivers with natural production was at least one fifth (22%, 19-23%). Two different spotting patterns were observed among the captured trout, with a small and sparsely spotted form being markedly more common among individuals of Russian (28%) and Estonian origin (22%) than among fish assigned to a Finnish origin (0.7%). © 2015 The Authors.
This paper explores the relation between equity market value and the expense of employee stock bonus that is disclosed but not recognized under Taiwans law. Employing the regression analyses, and to investigate the effects of employee stock bonus on the firms share price. We find that the market value of employee stock bonus has a negative effect on the firms share price. The result indicates the negative side of employee stock bonus is its dilution of the existing shareholders equity rights.
Finter, Philipp; Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra; Ruenzi, Stefan
This paper develops a broad-based sentiment indicator for Germany and investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return spread between sentiment sensitive stocks and stocks that are not sensitive to sentiment fluctuations. Specifically, stocks that are difficul...
Mohammed S. Khaled; Keef, Stephen P.
The Granger causality procedure is used to assess the dynamics of market efficiency of 17 international stock indices. These indices are based on relatively smaller firms. The reference of market efficiency is a stock index, from the same economy, which is based on relatively larger firms. There is evidence that market efficiency increases over time at a decreasing rate.
Hou, Ai Jun
The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...
This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non-stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock market and changes in the unemployment rate has remained structurally stable over seventy years. My ...
Full Text Available Forecasting stock returns is considered one of the hardest tasks for every potential investor. This paper attempts to predict the movement of Croatian stock market index Crobex on Zagreb Stock Exchange. Main aim of this paper was to empirically examine the best univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for forecasting. This research examined ARIMA (p;d;q model on weekly closed prices of Crobex from 01/01/2011 to 01/01/2013. First it was necessary to meet the stationary condition. While checking the conditions of stationarity, data series were observed by ACF, PACF plots and by Ljung– Box Q statistic and Augmented Dickey–Fuller test statistic. After differencing, statistic showed that the data is stationary and the next step was to find the best ARIMA model. The most important criteria that were used are: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion and Hannan–Quinn information criterion. After checking the exceptionally large number of models it was found the model that suits best, according to the criteria.
Full Text Available Convenience sample survey was fielded to the Macedonian individual stock market investors to find out whether their investment behavior can be explained by some underlying factors grounded in the behavioral approach to the study of financial markets. Descriptive statistics technique has been used to analyze the investors’ attitude about the market’s efficiency and to test different theories of behavioral finance. The results have indicated that investors are not completely rational individuals as supposed by theories of traditional finance. Also in the theoretical framework of behavioral finance Macedonian investors use heuristics, or rules of thumb, when judging information and forming beliefs, but Macedonian investors do not behave as suggested within prospect theory and regret aversion.
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50
Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of oil price uncertainty on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Monthly data from May 1987 to December 2013 are applied to the two-stage procedure. In the first step, a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH model is estimated to obtain the volatility series of stock market index and oil price. In the second step, the pairwise Granger causality tests are performed to determine the direction of volatility transmission between oil to stock markets. It is found that movement in real oil price does not adversely affect real stock market return, but stock price volatility does affect real stock return. In the sense of causality, there exists a positive one-directional volatility transmission running from oil to stock market. Oil price change and its uncertainty also adversely affect two main sub-index returns. These important findings give some implications for risk management and policy measures.
Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong
It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.
Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.
This paper investigates the dynamic interactions among securitized property markets, stock markets, and key macroeconomic factors for ten developed nations throughout North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia...
Full Text Available This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these reforms. As a result of the reforms, the Australian stock market has developed in terms of the number of listed companies, the market capitalisation, the total value of stocks traded, and the turnover ratio. Although the stock market in Australia has developed remarkably over the years, and was spared by the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, it still faces some challenges. These include the increased economic uncertainty overseas, the downtrend in global financial markets, and the restrained consumer confidence in Australia.
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the efficiency of Ukraine’s stock market based on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH which assumes that the price of a financial instrument completely reflects all the information about a given asset. Depending on the variety of information, weak, semi-strong and strong forms of market efficiency are applied The testing of market efficiency is based on verifying the hypothesis against actual statistical data. The study uses four statistical methods. The values of the stock index are used as source data, since the index can be interpreted as a hypothetical security (share, the price of which fluctuates all the time. This article demonstrates that Ukraine’s stock market on the whole is a weak form of market efficiency. It explains the specific strategies for a market with a weak form of efficiency and offers recommendations on the continued development of Ukraine’s stock market.
Christopher Ittner; David Larcker; Daniel Taylor
A number of recent marketing studies examine the stock market's response to the release of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores. The broad purpose of these studies is to investigate the stock market's valuation of customer satisfaction. However, a key focus is on whether customer satisfaction information predicts long-run returns. We provide evidence on the market's pricing of ACSI information using a more comprehensive set of well-established tests from the accounting and finan...
Kwapień, J.; Drożdż, S.; Speth, J.
Based on the tick-by-tick stock prices from the German and American stock markets, we study the statistical properties of the distribution of the individual stocks and the index returns in highly collective and noisy intervals of trading, separately. We show that periods characterized by the strong inter-stock couplings can be associated with the distributions of index fluctuations which reveal more pronounced tails than in the case of weaker couplings in the market. During periods of strong correlations in the German market these distributions can even reveal an apparent Lévy-stable component.
The stock market is a common feature of a modern economy as it promotes the growth and development of the economy. This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on consumer behavior and the economy, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical ...
This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...
Harnessing economic resources for national development is a major goal of governments; the stock market provides the medium through which funds could be mobilized and allocated for investments for development. This study sought to examine empirically whether stock market liquidity, savings rate, investment ratio, and ...
This study investigated the role of stock market development on economic growth of Nigeria using a 15-year time series data from 1994 - 2008. The method of analysis used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study measures the relationship between stock market development indices and economic growth.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis proposes that macroeconomic policy actions do not influence stock market development but the Tobin's q theory argues otherwise. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy on the development of the Ghana Stock ...
Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo
Feed-back models in the stock markets research imply an adjustment process toward investors' expectation for current information and past experiences. Error-correction and cointegration are often used to evaluate the long-run relation. The Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis, which had ignored the effect of the accumulation of information, cannot explain some anomalies such as bubbles and partial predictability in the stock markets. In order to investigate the feed-back mechanism and to determine an effective model, we use daily data of the stock index of two Chinese stock markets with the expectational model, which is one kind of geometric lag models. Tests and estimations of error-correction show that long-run equilibrium seems to be seldom achieved in Chinese stock markets. Our result clearly shows the common coefficient of expectations and fourth-order autoregressive disturbance exist in the two Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, we find the same coefficient of expectations has an autoregressive effect on disturbances in the two Chinese stock markets. Therefore the presence of such feed-back is also supported in Chinese stock markets.
K.E. Bouwman (Kees); E. Sojli (Elvira); W.W. Tham (Wing Wah)
textabstractWe assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock market illiquidity variable adds to the well established Cochrane-Piazzesi and Ludvigson-Ng factors. It explains 10%, 9%, 7%, and 7% of the one-year-ahead variation in the
Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the volatility pattern of Indian stock market based on time series data which consists of daily closing prices of S&P CNX Nifty Index for ten years period from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2012. The analysis has been done using both symmetric and asymmetric models of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH. As per Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC, the study proves that GARCH (1,1 and TGARCH (1,1 estimations are found to be most appropriate model to capture the symmetric and asymmetric volatility respectively. The study also provides evidence for the existence of a positive and insignificant risk premium as per GARCH-M (1,1 model. The asymmetric effect (leverage captured by the parameter of EGARCH (1,1 and TGARCH (1,1 models show that negative shocks have significant effect on conditional variance (volatility.
Siniša Bogdan; Suzana Bareša; Saša Ivanović
The purpose – It is important to emphasize that liquidity on Croatian stock market is low, the purpose of this paper is to test empirically and find out which variables make crucial role in decision making process of investing in stocks. Design – This paper explores the impact of various liquidity variables on liquidity ratio since it is still insufficiently researched topic. Methodology –This research uses secondary and primary data available from Croatian stock market. Considering pri...
Chen, Yuwen; Zheng, Tingting
In this paper, the asymmetric joint multifractal analysis method based on statistical physics is proposed to explore the asymmetric correlation between daily returns and trading volumes in Chinese stock markets. The result shows asymmetric multifractal correlations exist between return and trading volume in Chinese stock markets. Moreover, when the stock indexes are upward, the fluctuations of returns are always weaker than when they are downward, whether the trading volumes are more or less.
Suhadolnik, Nicolas; Galimberti, Jaqueson; Da Silva, Sergio
If stock markets are complex, monetary policy and even financial regulation may be useless to prevent bubbles and crashes. Here, we suggest the use of robot traders as an anti-bubble decoy. To make our case, we put forward a new stochastic cellular automata model that generates an emergent stock price dynamics as a result of the interaction between traders. After introducing socially integrated robot traders, the stock price dynamics can be controlled, so as to make the market more Gaussian.
Full Text Available This paper provides historical, theoretical, and empirical syntheses in understanding the rationality of investors, stock prices, and stock market efficiency behaviour in the theoretical lenses of behavioural finance paradigm. The inquiry is guided by multidisciplinary behavioural-related theories. The analyses employed a long span of Bursa Malaysia stock market data from 1977 to 2014 along the different phases of economic development and market states. The tests confirmed the presence of asymmetric dynamic behaviour of prices predictability as well as risk and return relationships across different market states, risk states and quantiles data segments. The efficiency tests show trends of an adaptive pattern of weak market efficiency across various economic phases and market states. Collectively, these evidences lend support to bounded-adaptive rational of investors' behaviour, dynamic stock price behaviour, and accordingly forming bounded-adaptive market efficiency.
Samih Antoine Azar
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.
Li, Xing; Qiu, Tian; Chen, Guang; Zhong, Li-Xin; Wu, Xiao-Run
Partial correlation analysis is employed to study the market impact on the Chinese stock market from both the native and external markets. Whereas the native market index is observed to have a great impact on the market correlations for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, some external stock indices of the United States, European and Asian stock markets show a slight influence on the Chinese market. The individual stock can be affected by different economic sectors, but the dominant influence is from the sector the stock itself belongs to or closely related to, and the finance and insurance sector shows a weaker correlation with other economic sectors. Moreover, the market structure similarity exhibits a negative correlation with the price return in most time, and the structure similarity decays with the time interval.
Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan
A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.
Full Text Available A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.
Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.
Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent. The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...
Krasnova Iryna V.
Full Text Available The article is devoted to analysis of the topical problem of detection of specific features of functioning and problem of development of the stock market of Ukraine and also justification of directions of increase of its liquidity and efficiency. It analyses main tendencies and regularities of development of the stock market in the context of institutional, instrumental and infrastructural components. It considers issues of changes of volumes of trade and other parameters of activity of stock exchanges during recent years. It focuses on existing problems on the way of development of the stock market of Ukraine, which interfere with its efficient functioning, in particular, a limited number of liquid and investment attractive financial instruments, high fragmentariness of the exchange and depositary infrastructure, and insufficient legislative regulation of the exchange activity. For solution of problem issues and stimulation of further development of the domestic stock market the article marks expediency of consolidation of stock exchanges, necessity to increase capitalisation, liquidity and transparency of the stock market; further formation and consolidation of the market infrastructure and ensuring its reliable and efficient functioning, and improvement of mechanisms of state regulation, supervision and protection of the rights of investors in the Ukrainian stock market.
Richard C. K. Burdekin
Full Text Available The 2009 surge in bank lending in China was accompanied by allegations of substantial funds being funneled into the nation's stock and property markets. This paper uses 2004–2010 People's Bank survey data to examine the possible linkages between banking activity and the stock market as well as the associated inflation risks. In general, stock market strength in China seems to be accompanied by rising inflationary concerns, increased bank lending activity, and reduced banker confidence that stable conditions will be maintained. This suggests that the Shanghai market could serve as a useful indicator variable for Chinese monetary policy.
Simona – Florina SĂLIȘTEANU
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore and to analyse the relations between financial accounting information and stock market efficiency. As we know, accounting contributes to the efficiency of the stock market by producing primordial information for the investors. On the other side, an efficient market facilitates the role of accounting by providing a reliable estimate of the value of many assets that needs to be evaluated. This article examines the importance of the financial accounting information for the efficiency of stock market, and also analyses whether and how the structure, the characteristics and publication of the information, impacts the prices and transactions volumes.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the financial integration of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. We use a multinomial logistic regression to analyze how persistence, asset class and volatility effects are related with negative coexceedances in SEE markets. We find evidence in favor...... of the continuation hypothesis in SEE stock markets. However, the factors associated with the coexceedances differ between the EU member countries from SEE and EU accession countries from SEE stock markets.The EU member countries are more dependent from the signals from major EU economies, while the accession...
Teder, Kersti; Pepeloshev, Andrei; Matto, Vallo; Meos, Andres
The pharmacopoeial quality of non-expired and expired nifedipine tablets of the same batches purchased from the Estonian and Russian Federation medicinal product markets was evaluated. The IR spectroscopy, HPLC analysis for quantitative content and purity of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and dissolution test techniques were applied. In the experiments with non-expired nifedipine tablets, in all Estonian (n = 8, label claims 10, 20, and 40 mg) and Russian Federation (n = 4, label claim 10 mg) registered formulations the API was identified and quantified as nifedipine in amounts set by the European Pharmacopoeia and without exceeding the tolerance limits for the impurities. The dissolution rate was variable but all 10 and 20 mg non-expired nifedipine tablets released at least 80% of API in 12 h. The expiration of the nifedipine tablets led to somewhat increased dissolution rate while only traces of the nifedipine degradation products were discovered in the dissolution medium. In conclusion, our present study shows that with minor variations the Estonian and Russian Federation registered nifedipine tablets are comparable, the API preserves well beyond the expiration date but the expired nifedipine tablets may release the API faster than the non-expired tablets.
The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibit...
Young Chang, Bo; Christoffersen, Peter F.; Jacobs, Kris
The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....
whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...
Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun
Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.
Bahceci, Oktay; Alsing, Oscar
Stock Forecasting is commonly used in different forms everyday in order to predict stock prices. Sentiment Analysis (SA), Machine Learning (ML) and Data Mining (DM) are techniques that have recently become popular in analyzing public emotion in order to predict future stock prices. The algorithms need data in big sets to detect patterns, and the data has been collected through a live stream for the tweet data, together with web scraping for the stock data. This study examined how three organi...
Gerardo “Gerry” Alfonso Perez
Full Text Available Value investment and growth investment have attracted a large amount of research in recent decades, but most of this research focuses on the U.S. and Europe. This article covers the Thai stock market which has very different characteristics compared to western markets and even South East Asian countries such as Indonesia or Malaysia. Among South East Asian countries, Thailand has one of the most dynamic capital markets. In order to see if some well-known trends in other markets exist in Thailand the performance of value and growth stocks in the Thai market were analyzed for a period of 17 years using existing style indexes (MSCI as well as creating portfolios using individual stocks. For this entire period, when using the indexes, returns are statistically significant superior for value stocks compared to growth stocks. However, when analyzing the performance of the market in any given calendar year from 1999 to 2016, the results are much more mixed with in fact growth stocks outperforming in several of those years. Interestingly, when building portfolios using criteria such as low P/E or low P/B the results are not statistically different. Suggesting perhaps that the classification into value or growth stocks is more complex than it would appear. One of the common assumptions of value investing is that those stocks outperform over long periods of time. It might well be that in the Thai case one year is not a long enough period for value stocks to outperform. While there have been some clear efforts over recent years to modernize the stock market of Thailand, it remains relatively underdeveloped, particularly when compared to markets such as the U.S. Hence, its behavior regarding value versus growth investment might be rather different.
Moaz Alsherfawi Aljazaerli
Full Text Available The theoretical relationship between corruption and stock market development has been debated quite extensively in the literature, yet the evidence on the impact of corruption on stock market development remains contradictory and ambiguous. This paper investigates the impact of corruption, as measured by Corruption Perception Index (CPI published by Transparency International, on stock market development focusing exclusively on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC countries with its special characteristics of combining richness with relatively high level of corruption. Results from an estimation of alternative regression models on a panel of six GCC countries over the period 2003–2011, through which CPI is legitimately comparable, confirms a positive impact of corruption on stock market development, where the latter is measured by market capitalization. This is consistent with the view that corruption greases the wheels of economy by expediting transactions and allowing private firms to overcome governmentally imposed inefficiencies.
Full Text Available The study examines the return and volatility spillover among Asian stock markets in India, Hong Kong, Japan, China, Jakarta, and Korea using a six-variable asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK model during February 2, 2007, to February 29, 2010. The author finds evidence of bidirectional return, shock, and volatility spillover among most of the stock markets. The magnitude of volatility linkages is low indicating weak integration of Asian stock markets. The study finds that own volatility spillover is higher than cross-market spillover. The overall persistence of stock market volatility is highest for Japan (0.931 and lowest for China (0.824. The implication of weak integration is that investors will benefit from reduction of diversifiable risk.
In this paper, we perform a multiscale entropy analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index using the Shannon entropy. The stock index shows the characteristic of multi-scale entropy that caused by noise in the market. The entropy is demonstrated to have significant predictive ability for the stock index in both long-term and short-term, and empirical results verify that noise does exist in the market and can affect stock price. It has important implications on market participants such as noise traders.
Henryk Gurgul; Roland Mestel; Robert Syrek
By applying copulas the examination was carried out to find out whether trading volume, stock return and return volatility are pairwise dependent. In the investigations it was shown that there exists a close relationship between these variables on the domestic market and between Polish stock returns and the returns of foreign stock market indexes. A similar significant relationship concerns also trading volumes. In addition, stock returns (returns volatility) of the Austrian and especially of...
Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.
... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...
occurred in the financial market but also the effects that financial market developments might have had on economic growth in Zimbabwe. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining simultaneously the contribution of bank and stock market developments to both the short and long run economic growth in Zimbabwe.
Obviously for the Nigerian capital market to enhance economic growth and development and compare favourably with those of developed market economies, investors will need to be abreast with the happenings and great benefits of the stock market. In this case a lot depends on considerable control of the interest rate, the ...
Berzanna Seydou Ouattara
Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to contribute to the international investment decision making process among the BRICS countries and to the development or changes of policies in response to the dynamics in these countries. The background is important for international investors seeking diversification benefits abroad and for policy makers reacting to the developments in the aforementioned economies. Thus, the context of this paper is directed to the examination of the stock market interaction among the BRICS countries. The objective of this research paper is to analyze the existence of the short-term linkages and long-term cointegration among the BRICS markets. Augmented Dicker-Fuller (ADF and Philips-Perron tests (PP are used to analyze stationarity among the selected variables. The research applies the correlation test on the stock markets returns to investigate the degree of freedom existing among the markets. The long run and the short run are also investigated using Johansen cointegration test while the Pairwise Granger Causality and the Wald tests are applied to assess the direction of the causality between the stock market indices. The study also extends the investigation by employing the impulse response function and variance decomposition to evaluate the reaction of each stock to a shock from other stock indices. The quarterly data consisted of fifteen years from 2000 to 2015 and are exclusively composed of stock market index of selected countries. One of the key findings of the research is that the Chinese stock markets are mostly independent from other BRICS markets, implying diversification benefits for the international investors both in the short and the long run. Another important finding is that the BRICS stock markets are not cointegrated in the long run, thus, being a favorable destination for the long-term investments.
Newton Da Costa, Jr; Marcus Lima; Edgar Lanzer; Ana Lopes
This paper presents a multi-period investment strategy using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the Brazilian stock market. Results show that the returns based on the DEA strategy were superior to the returns of a Brazilian stock index in most of the 22 quarters analyzed, presenting a significant Jensen's alpha.
crisis, and foreign investment crisis has a negative significant impact on the Nigerian stock market. Based on ... The ripple effects of the global financial crisis seem to have had a dramatic negative effect on the Nigerian stock ... is evident in his statement that the pace of financial and economic globalisation appears to have ...
Agenor (2000) highlights that high inflation, large fiscal deficits and real exchange rate over-valuation constraint private sector .... that macroeconomic variables including inflation, money supply and exchange rate determine stock prices. However, Gan et al. ..... Past US Stock Market Booms. National Bureau of Economic ...
Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
This note deals with the stability properties of an economy where the central bank is concerned with stock market developments. We introduce a Taylor rule reacting to stock price growth rates along with inflation and output gap in a New-Keynesian setup. We explore the performance of this rule fro...
This paper investigates the effect of bilateral exchange rates on stock market returns in the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) measured by the domestic company index (DCI). To examine whether this effect exists or not, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, Impulse ...
Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.
The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high
Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.
Full Text Available Purpose: In order to investigate community structure of the component stocks of SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange 180-index, a stock correlation network is built to find the intra-community and inter-community relationship. Design/methodology/approach: The stock correlation network is built taking the vertices as stocks and edges as correlation coefficients of logarithm returns of stock price. It is built as undirected weighted at first. GN algorithm is selected to detect community structure after transferring the network into un-weighted with different thresholds. Findings: The result of the network community structure analysis shows that the stock market has obvious industrial characteristics. Most of the stocks in the same industry or in the same supply chain are assigned to the same community. The correlation of the internal stock prices’ fluctuation is closer than in different communities. The result of community structure detection also reflects correlations among different industries. Originality/value: Based on the analysis of the community structure in Shanghai stock market, the result reflects some industrial characteristics, which has reference value to relationship among industries or sub-sectors of listed companies.
education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 5% of labor......This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....
constructed and supplied by Africa Business Research Ltd, a UK-based independent ... Table 1 reports descriptive statistics and diagnostics of daily returns for all 16 ...... Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental. Values? Journal ...
Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J
The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.
... with debt, political cost, market share, and earning. Sample of thisresearch was chosen by using purposive sampling of 350 manufacturing business listed in the JakartaStock Exchange, started from 1997 up to 2002...
Muhammad Usman Javaid
Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.
Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.
This paper investigates whether privatisation in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatisation programme represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty
Georgescu Maria Andrada
Full Text Available The present paper aims to present the level of development reached by Romanian Treasury bond market segment at Bucharest Stock Exchange. A trial will be made to identify the determinants that contributed to the current level of development of domestic secondary government bond market and the factors that can generate a further (and improved development. The analysis will be descriptive (the data series available for Romanian are short, based on the secondary data offered by Bucharest Stock Exchange.
Kihlström, Gustav; Patryk, Przybysz
In this thesis we evaluate four different machine learning algorithms, namely Naive Bayes Classifier, Support Vector Machines, Extreme Learning Machine and Random Forest in the context of stock market investments. The aim is to provide additional information that can be beneficial when creating stock market models to be used in a machine learning setting. All four algorithms are trained on different configurations of data, based on concepts from technical analysis. The configurations contain ...
Jung, Woo-Sung; Kwon, Okyu; Kaizoji, Taisei; Chae, Seungbyung; Lee, Woong; Moon, Hie-Tae
We investigated the temporally evolving network structures of the Japanese and Korean stock markets through the minimum spanning trees composed of listed stocks. We tested the validity of conventional grouping by industrial categories, and found a common trend of decrease for Japan and Korea. This phenomenon supports the increasing external effects on the markets due to the globalization of both countries. At last the Korean market are grouped with the MSCI Korea Index, a good reference for foreigners' trading, in the early 2000s. In the Japanese market, this tendency is strengthened more and more by burst of the bubble in 1990's.
Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically. However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse. This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination. The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.
Peter Rappoport; White, Eugene N.
Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast., historical accounts, focusing on briefer periods, point to the stock market of 1928-1929 as a classic example of a bubble. While previous studies have restricted their attention to the joint behavior of stock prices and dividends over the course of a century, this paper uses the behavior of the premia demanded on loans collateralized by the purchase of stocks to evaluate the c...
Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar
The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.
Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.
The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.
Full Text Available The paper investigates whether the stock market of Bangladesh can be related with the last world recession. The Pearson’s correlation analysis model was used to find the correlation between the Dhaka Stock Exchange General index and real GDP growth rate of the world. The findings show that no statistically significant correlation exists between the two variables inferring that the stock market of Bangladesh was not significantly affected by ‘the great recession’ (2007-2009. The findings of this study are inconsistent with the results of previous studies which claimed that the Bangladesh stock market shares a common stochastic trend with the capital market of USA. The results of this study may be explained mainly by domestic factors such as low market capitalization, market inefficiency, strict monitoring and control by the Security and Exchange Commission and low international participation in the stock market of Bangladesh. All these factors, along with the inconsistency with past results, instigate further investigation.
Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian
In this paper, we employ the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate the cross-correlations between different stock markets. We report the results of cross-correlated behaviors in US, Chinese and European stock markets in period 1997-2012 by using DCCA method. The DCCA shows the cross-correlated behaviors of intra-regional and inter-regional stock markets in the short and long term which display the similarities and differences of cross-correlated behaviors simply and roughly and the persistence of cross-correlated behaviors of fluctuations. Then, because of the limitation and inapplicability of DCCA method, we propose multiscale detrended cross-correlation analysis (MSDCCA) method to avoid "a priori" selecting the ranges of scales over which two coefficients of the classical DCCA method are identified, and employ MSDCCA to reanalyze these cross-correlations to exhibit some important details such as the existence and position of minimum, maximum and bimodal distribution which are lost if the scale structure is described by two coefficients only and essential differences and similarities in the scale structures of cross-correlation of intra-regional and inter-regional markets. More statistical characteristics of cross-correlation obtained by MSDCCA method help us to understand how two different stock markets influence each other and to analyze the influence from thus two inter-regional markets on the cross-correlation in detail, thus we get a richer and more detailed knowledge of the complex evolutions of dynamics of the cross-correlations between stock markets. The application of MSDCCA is important to promote our understanding of the internal mechanisms and structures of financial markets and helps to forecast the stock indices based on our current results demonstrated the cross-correlations between stock indices. We also discuss the MSDCCA methods of secant rolling window with different sizes and, lastly, provide some relevant implications and
Qayyum, Abdul; A. R. Kemal
Our paper examines the volatility spillover between the stock market and the foreign exchange market in Pakistan. For long run relationship we use Engle Granger two step procedure and the volatility spillover is modelled through bivariate EGARCH method. The estimated results from cointegration analysis show that there is no long run relationship between the two markets. The results from the volatility modelling show that the behaviour of both the stock exchange and the foreign exchange market...
Full Text Available This paper investigates the transmission of market volatility between the emerging stock and bond markets. In order to examine this relation between the bond and stock market, we use the BEKK GARCH model; a decomposition approach of the multivariate GARCH (1, 1 model. The outcome of this study displays a significant relation between bond and stock index and the incidence of the interest rate in this transmission. Besides, there is a transmission of volatility between the bond and stock index demonstrated by the DCC GARCH graph.
Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin
We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.
The results show that market capitalization and value traded ratios have a very weak negative correlation with economic growth while turnover ratio has a very ... The government should make policies that boost the interest of domestic investors in Nigeria as this might spur investors' interest and boost stock market activity.
D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Amram (Ron)
textabstractThis paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important
Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the period...
African Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 4, No. 1, Dec 2012. 57. 2010; Ntim et al, 2011). While this indicates that these African stock markets have yet to formally integrate into the competitive global financial market place on the one hand, on the other hand, it offers significant portfolio diversification opportunities for ...
Spierdijk, Laura; Umar, Zaghum
We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local
Scholtens, Bert; Voorhorst, Yvonne
How do financial markets respond to the impact of earthquakes? We investigate this for more than 100 earthquakes with fatalities in 21 countries from five continents in the period 1973-2011. Using an event study methodology we conclude that there are significant negative effects on stock market
Bikker, J.A.; Broeders, D.W.G.A; de Dreu, J.
This paper is the first that examines the impact of stock market performance on the investment policy of pension funds. We find that stock market prices influence the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds in two ways. In the short term, outperformance of equities over bonds and other investment
Kopylova Olga Volodymyrivna
Full Text Available The modern perception of the stock market in terms of information technologies rapid development and under the institutionalists influence has been significantly modified and becomes multifaceted. It was detected that the main function of the market is activated, information asymmetry is minimized and more advanced financial architecture space is formed through trade networks. Formation of the modern trade networks has started on the basis of the old infrastructure, that had the highest tendency to self-organization and adaptation. The proposed architecture of trade networks of the stock market has a very clear vector of subordination – from top to bottom and has a number of positive points.
Yamashita, Hirofumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako
We investigated data of stocks listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange. Although the data we used contains limited number of limit orders around the best prices in the ask and bid sides, we could confirm some issues of the layered structure which is similar to that in FX markets. We show time series of a market impact index, which is made using high correlation between dynamics of price and volume of limit orders. In the last section, we remark differences in our observations comparing with the FX market case.
Collins C. Ngwakwe
Full Text Available This paper presents an initial evaluation of possible effect of xenophobic violence on the Johannesburg Stock Market. Violence is inimical to economic development as it constraints normal business operations and causes a rebound on the stock market. The paper applied the event trend analysis combined with a statistical t-test of paired sample means in the pre and post-xenophobic period stock performance. Data was drawn from the JSE All Share Index - Capped Indices Performance (J303 - Capi DY for 2008 and 2015, during & after the xenophobic violence of 2008 and 2015. The economic consequences of social instability were substantiated with related literature. The theoretical foundation was inclined on the integrated threat theory and the social contract theory. Findings from the analysis of paired sample t-test showed a significant difference in means of stock performance with P<0.05 within and after the xenophobic period. Furthermore, a t-test of similarity in stock performance chart for periods of xenophobic violence 2008 and 2015 showed no significant difference in stock performance trend – indicating similarity in stock chart between 2008 and 2015 periods of xenophobic violence. The paper recommends the need for further research of a broader scope that will consider many years of xenophobic events or similar violence across countries using multiple stock performance and economic performance indicators.
Full Text Available Frontier markets, such as Serbia, which are at the early stages of development, are characterized by very low level of solvency, absence of corporate management rules and reports to the public, insufficiently developed regulations, as well as significant participation of foreign portfolio investors in the exchange. Those are usually foreign investment funds specialized in risky investments at such markets; they apply the principle of geographic portfolio diversification in their investment policy. At the Belgrade Stock Exchange, foreign investors have been present at the stock market since 2002 and they participated in high volumes in stock buying during the stock market growth in the period from 2002 to 2007, whereas during the crisis at the Serbian capital market from 2008 to 2010 there was a significant increase in foreign investors' participation on the selling side and a withdrawal from the Belgrade Stock Exchange. Such behavior of foreign investors was initially prompted by local factors, but was intensified by the global financial crisis and will be analyzed in this paper.
Full Text Available This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is found. Also strong co-movements in returns and volatility are observed between the SENSEX and other major stock indexes during the post-recession period. Our results establish the dominance of global factors in influencing Indian stock market behavior during periods of economic turmoil.
Full Text Available Stock market is considered too uncertain to be predictable. Many individuals have developed methodologies or models to increase the probability of making a profit in their stock investment. The overall hit rates of these methodologies and models are generally too low to be practical for real-world application. One of the major reasons is the huge fluctuation of the market. Therefore, the current research focuses in the stock forecasting area is to improve the accuracy of stock trading forecast. This paper introduces a system that addresses the particular need. The system integrates various data mining techniques and supports the decision-making for stock trades. The proposed system embeds the top-down trading theory, artificial neural network theory, technical analysis, dynamic time series theory, and Bayesian probability theory. To experimentally examine the trading return of the presented system, two examples are studied. The first uses the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC data-set that covers an investment horizon of 240 trading days from 16 February 2011 to 23 January 2013. Eighty four transactions were made using the proposed approach and the investment return of the portfolio was 54% with an 80.4% hit rate during a 12-month period in which the TSMC stock price increased by 25% (from $NT 78.5 to $NT 101.5. The second example examines the stock data of Evergreen Marine Corporation, an international marine shipping company. Sixty four transactions were made and the investment return of the portfolio was 128% in 12 months. Given the remarkable investment returns in trading the example TSMC and Evergreen stocks, the proposed system demonstrates promising potentials as a viable tool for stock market forecasting.
This thesis intends to uncover the linkages between the emotions contained within remarks of the president of the United States expressed on Twitter and movements of the stock market indices. The daily comments of the two consecutive presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump are annotated with sentiment intensity values using the lexicon-based model called VADER. Our analysis further focuses on testing for Granger causality using the bivariate vector autoregression. Overall, three major stock...
Degryse, Hans; de Jong, Frank; Lefebvre, J.J.G.
This paper assesses the impact of legal trades by corporate insiders on the liquidity of the firm’s stock. For this purpose, we analyze two liquidity measures and one information asymmetry measure. The analysis allows us to study as well the effect of a change in insider trading regulation, namely
Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun
We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.
Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti
The investors’ attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors’ attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors’ attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors’ attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors’ attention. PMID:28542216
Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti
The investors' attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors' attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors' attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors' attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors' attention.
Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.
Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.
The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.
Curme, Chester; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene; Moat, Helen Susannah
Technology is becoming deeply interwoven into the fabric of society. The Internet has become a central source of information for many people when making day-to-day decisions. Here, we present a method to mine the vast data Internet users create when searching for information online, to identify topics of interest before stock market moves. In an analysis of historic data from 2004 until 2012, we draw on records from the search engine Google and online encyclopedia Wikipedia as well as judgments from the service Amazon Mechanical Turk. We find evidence of links between Internet searches relating to politics or business and subsequent stock market moves. In particular, we find that an increase in search volume for these topics tends to precede stock market falls. We suggest that extensions of these analyses could offer insight into large-scale information flow before a range of real-world events.
BAKO Elena Dana
Full Text Available This paper continues the series of researches about the paradoxes of modern stock exchange markets and their impact on the real economy, addressing this time the most important technical anomalies but also fundamental anomalies, which can be observed on the financial markets. As we mentioned in several previous articles, the paradoxes of stock exchanges are related to potential contradictions that arise in relation to a generally accepted truth. A lot of researches in the field of stock market investment focused on finding the answer to the question whether historical prices can be used to predict future prices for listed securities. Complex forecasting methods were created to clarify this aspect. Thus, technical analysis is a method of forecasting the price movements and trends of the market in the future, by studying the market graphs (including here both, the price of the listed instruments and the volume of transactions. The fundamental anomalies refer to the anomalies in trading financial instruments, and to the elements of fundamental analysis. The basic principle of fundamental analysis refers to the fact that the market price of any financial instrument is the result of supply and demand for that instrument. Both the supply and demand that finally determine the price of a financial instrument, are under the influence of various factors. Market’s analysts monitor various economic indicators and examine the market reports, to detect changes that may occur in the economy. The fundamental analysis attempts to predict prices and the overall market development by analyzing some economic indicators, political or social factors which are likely to influence the stock exchange prices. Both technical and fundamental anomalies have a major impact on price formation for financial instruments which are traded on stock exchanges, and are able to offer to warned investors higher earnings.
Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Qing-Wen
In this paper we employ the conditional Granger causality model to estimate the information flow, and find that the improved model outperforms the Granger causality model in revealing the asymmetric correlation between stocks and futures in the Chinese market. First, we find that information flows estimated by Granger causality tests from futures to stocks are greater than those from stocks to futures. Additionally, average correlation coefficients capture some important characteristics between stock prices and information flows over time. Further, we find that direct information flows estimated by conditional Granger causality tests from stocks to futures are greater than those from futures to stocks. Besides, the substantial increases of information flows and direct information flows exhibit a certain degree of synchronism with the occurrences of important events. Finally, the comparative analysis with the asymmetric ratio and the bootstrap technique demonstrates the slight asymmetry of information flows and the significant asymmetry of direct information flows. It reveals that the information flows from futures to stocks are slightly greater than those in the reverse direction, while the direct information flows from stocks to futures are significantly greater than those in the reverse direction.
The greatest and engendering event in the Twenty first century is capital and financial market revolution and reformation especially for India. Efficient Market Hypothesis has attracted numbers of studies in empirical finance particularly in determining the market efficiency of an emerging financial market which produced conflicting and inconclusive outcomes. This paper tests the efficiency of the Indian Capital Market in its semi-strong form and weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)...
Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia; Movahed, S. M. S.
In this paper, Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Since underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (AMF-DFA) and Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (AMF-DXA). We find only 170 pair of Stock markets cointegrated, and according to the Granger causality and mutual information, we realize that the strongest relations lies between emerging markets, and between emerging and frontier markets. According to scaling exponent given by AMF-DFA, h(q = 2) > 1, we find that all underlying data sets belong to non-stationary process. According to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), only 8 markets are classified in uncorrelated processes at 2 σ confidence interval. 6 Stock markets belong to anti-correlated class and dominant part of markets has memory in corresponding daily index prices during January 1995 to February 2014. New-Zealand with H = 0 . 457 ± 0 . 004 and Jordan with H = 0 . 602 ± 0 . 006 are far from EMH. The nature of cross-correlation exponents based on AMF-DXA is almost multifractal for all pair of Stock markets. The empirical relation, Hxy ≤ [Hxx +Hyy ] / 2, is confirmed. Mentioned relation for q > 0 is also satisfied while for q < 0 there is a deviation from this relation confirming behavior of markets for small fluctuations is affected by contribution of major pair. For larger fluctuations, the cross-correlation contains information from both local (internal) and global (external) conditions. Width of singularity spectrum for auto-correlation and cross-correlation are Δαxx ∈ [ 0 . 304 , 0 . 905 ] and Δαxy ∈ [ 0 . 246 , 1 . 178 ] , respectively. The wide range of singularity spectrum for cross-correlation confirms that the bilateral relation between Stock markets is more complex. The value of σDCCA indicates that all
Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi
The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.
Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Avakian, Adam; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias
Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making.
Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.
This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher......-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and conditional volatility. A Markov switching model describes the risk-return trade-off well. A number...... of variables have explanatory power for the states of the European stock markets....
Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.
Malcolm Baker; Jeffrey Wurgler
Investor sentiment, defined broadly, is a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects. One approach is "bottom up," using biases in individual investor psychology, such as overconfidence, representativeness, and conservatism, to explain how individual investors underreact or overreact to past returns or fu...
Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin
With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.
Huai-Long Shi; Zhi-Qiang Jiang; Wei-Xing Zhou
This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen...
Wang, Qizhen; Zhu, Yingming; Yang, Liansheng; Mul, Remco A. H.
This paper uses the coupling detrended fluctuation analysis (CDFA) method to investigate the multifractal characteristics of four Asian stock markets using three stock indices: stock price returns, trading volumes and the composite index. The results show that coupled correlations exist among the four stock markets and the coupled correlations have multifractal characteristics. We then use the chi square (χ2) test to identify the sources of multifractality. For the different stock indices, the contributions of a single series to multifractality are different. In other words, the contributions of each country to coupled correlations are different. The comparative analysis shows that the research on the combine effect of stock price returns and trading volumes may be more comprehensive than on an individual index. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data with the residual errors of the vector autoregression (VAR) model, we find that the VAR model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the coupled correlations among four financial time series.
Lin, Shu-Hui; Wang, Chien-Ho; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan
Using 10-year population data from 2000 through 2009 in Taiwan, this is the first paper to analyze the relationship between margin trading in stock markets and stroke hospitalizations. The results show that 3 and 6 days after an increase of margin trading in the Taiwan stock markets are associated with greater stoke hospitalizations. In general, a 1 % increase in total margin trading positions is associated with an increment of 2.5 in the total number of stroke hospitalizations, where the mean number of hospital admissions is 233 cases a day. We further examine the effects of margin trading by gender and age groups and find that the effects of margin trading are significant for males and those who are 45-74 years old only. In summary, buying stocks with money you do not have is quite risky, especially if the prices of those stocks fall past a certain level or if there is a sudden and severe drop in the stock market. There is also a hidden danger to one's health from margin trading. A person should be cautious before conducting margin trading, because while it can be quite profitable, danger always lurks just around the corner.
Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo
We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.
Full Text Available This paper seeks to analyze the dynamical structure of the Indian stock market by considering two major Indian stock market indices, namely, BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty. The recurrence quantification analysis (RQA is applied on the daily closing data of the two series during the period from January 2, 2002, to October 10, 2013. A Rolling Window of 100 and step size 21 are applied in order to see how both the series behave over time. The analysis based on three RQA measures, namely, % determinism (DET, laminarity (LAM, and trapping time (TT, provides conclusive evidence that the Indian equity market is chaotic in nature. Evidences for phase transition in the Indian equity market around the time of financial crisis are also found.
We present a model to describe the stochastic evolution of stocks that show a strong resistance at some level and generalize to this situation the evolution based upon geometric Brownian motion. If volatility and drift are related in a certain way we show that our model can be integrated in an exact way. The related problem of how to prize general securities that pay dividends at a continuous rate and earn a terminal payoff at maturity T is solved via the martingale probability approach.
Chen, Chun-Chih; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Lin, Ying-Tzu
This paper investigates the impact of stock market movement on incidences of stroke utilizing population-based aggregate data in Taiwan. Using the daily data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and from the National Health Insurance Research Database during 2001/1/1-2007/12/31, which consist of 2556 observations, we examine the effects of stock market on stroke incidence - the level effect and the daily change effects. In general, we find that both a low stock index level and a daily fall in the stock index are associated with greater incidences of stroke. We further partition the data on sex and age. The level effect is found to be significant for either gender, in the 45-64 and 65 ≥ age groups. In addition, two daily change effects are found to be significant for males and the elderly. Although stockholdings can increase wealth, they can also increase stroke incidence, thereby representing a cost to health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.
We propose a method based on cointegration instead of correlation to construct financial complex network in Chinese stock market. The network is obtained starting from the matrix of p-value calculated by Engle-Granger cointegration test between all pairs of stocks. Then some tools for filtering information in complex network are implemented to prune the complete graph described by the above matrix, such as setting a level of statistical significance as a threshold and Planar Maximally Filtered Graph. We also calculate Partial Correlation Planar Graph of these stocks to compare the above networks. Last, we analyze these directed, weighted and non-symmetric networks by using standard methods of network analysis, including degree centrality, PageRank, HITS, local clustering coefficient, K-shell and strongly and weakly connected components. The results shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces in a financial market and deepen our understanding of financial complex network.
Goykhman, Mikhail; Teimouri, Ali
In this paper we continue the study of the simulated stock market framework defined by the driving sentiment processes. We focus on the market environment driven by the buy/sell trading sentiment process of the Markov chain type. We apply the methodology of the Hidden Markov Models and the Recurrent Neural Networks to reconstruct the transition probabilities matrix of the Markov sentiment process and recover the underlying sentiment states from the observed stock price behavior. We demonstrate that the Hidden Markov Model can successfully recover the transition probabilities matrix for the hidden sentiment process of the Markov Chain type. We also demonstrate that the Recurrent Neural Network can successfully recover the hidden sentiment states from the observed simulated stock price time series.
Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate whether the sentiment contained in text of news items influences a company’s stock price. With the means of sentiment analysis, a quantitative approach for measuring sentiment in text, we derive scores for positive and negative sentiment contained in news. Next, we relate these quantities to stock market prices. By regression analysis we show that the sentiment contained in text of news items affects a company’s stock prices. This reveals that human sentiments influence capital markets and shows the potential of sentiment analysis as a quantitative approach to measure opinion with possible applications in e.g. public opinion tracking or brand and product management.
Stock market integration of mainland China is analyzed before and after the liberalization of Chinese stock exchange segments. We apply a causality-in-variance procedure, using four mainland China stock market indices, two indices of the stock exchange in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrial index. We find evidence of global and regional integration, but we do not find evidence for increasing integration after stock market liberalization, neither with Hong Kong nor with the United States.
T.D. Markwat (Thijs); H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)
textabstractThis paper shows that stock market contagion operates through a domino effect, where small crashes evolve into more severe crashes. Using a novel unifying framework we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes in terms of past occurrences of these different crashes and
Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Giuliodori, M.
There is substantial consensus in the literature that positive uncertainty shocks predict a slowdown of economic activity. However, using US data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks has changed substantially over time. The negative response of
Beetsma, R.; Giuliodori, M.
There is substantial consensus in the literature that positive uncertainty shocks predict a slowdown of economic activity. However, using U.S. data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks has changed substantially over time. The negative response
This paper looks at the application of the artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting stock market prices in Kenya. In particular the paper looks at the application of ANN in predicting future Equity Bank share prices using historical data. We have assumed that only previous prices affect future prices, then fitted ARIMA ...
Abstract PhD-project The aim of this thesis is to explore the mechanisms of style investing. My project consists of two parts, each with an individual goal: 1. The first objective will be to analyze the implications of the dynamics of value and growth strategies for the US stock market. 2. The
Hoefsloot, P.; Georgakopoulos, G.; Sotiropoulos, I.; Galanou, A.
This paper investigates the existence of the accrual anomaly on the Dutch stock market. We find statistical evidence to accept that the cash flow component of current earnings is significantly more persistent than the accrual component of current earnings. When applying a trading strategy a
The paper examines the short and long run impact of bank and stock market developments on growth in Zimbabwe using annual data from 1988-2012, inclusive. The study uses a financially-augmented production growth function and applies the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the error correction ...
Our parameter ranking or sensitivity analysis permits us to make realistic conclusions about the relative importance of individual parameters. Our approach also permits us to gain some useful insights into the ability of the model to reflect what is obtainable within the stock markets. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, competition ...
The automation of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) in 2008, among other reforms, was expected to improve the efficiency of the market. The extent of this truism has, however, not been empirically established for the GSE. In this study, we attempt to assess the impact of the automation on the efficiency of the GSE within the ...
tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data of the NSEM and explored the implementation of the Logistic function on Back-propagation algorithm on the WEKA platform, and results obtained, made us to also conclude that the Back-propagation model of Artificial ...
Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P. H.
This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over
Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.
This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over
Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)
textabstractIn this paper we study the performance of the GARCH model and two of its non-linear modifications to forecast weekly stock market volatility. The models are the Quadratic GARCH (Engle and Ng, 1993) and the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992) models which have been proposed to
G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); M. Spann (Martin); G.L. Lilien (Gary); B. Skiera (Bernd)
textabstractWe study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of
Abstract. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market. To achieve this purpose, research questions were raised, hypotheses were formulated and a review of extant literature was made. The survey method of research design was adopted in an effort to ...
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market. To achieve this purpose, research questions were raised, hypotheses were formulated and a review of extant literature was made. The survey method of research design was adopted in an effort to generate the ...
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995 approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate, trade balance and exchange rate. Stock market Granger-causes industrial production and interest rate, and is therefore leading indicator of these variables. Between money supply and stock prices is Granger causality in both directions. Other variables seem to be independent on development of the stock market. We do not find any violation of Efficient market hypothesis which indicates that the stock market in Germany is informational efficient.
Bhattacharya, N.; Demers, E.; Joos, P.P.M.
Prior research shows that accounting information is relevant for stock valuation, failure prediction, performance evaluation, optimal contracting, and other decision-making contexts in relatively stable market settings. By contrast, accounting's role during stock market bubbles such as those
Full Text Available This paper examines the existence of value premium in the Chinese stock markets and empirically provides its explanation. Our results suggest that the value premium does exist in the Chinese markets, and investor sophistication is significant in explaining its existence. In particular, there is supporting evidence that the value premium could be driven by individual investors, whereas stocks that are mostly held by institutional investors are value-premium free. We briefly discuss the implications of our findings.
Ruan, Qingsong; Zhang, Shuhua; Lv, Dayong; Lu, Xinsheng
Based on the implementation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in China, this paper examines the effects of financial liberalization on stock market comovement using both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) methods. Results based on MF-DFA confirm the multifractality of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the market efficiency of Shanghai stock market increased after the implementation of this connect program. Besides, analysis based on MF-DCCA has verified the existence of persistent cross-correlation between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the cross-correlation gets stronger after the launch of this liberalization program. Finally, we find that fat-tail distribution is the main source of multifractality in the cross-correlations before the stock connect program, while long-range correlation contributes to the multifractality after this program.
D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); A.K. Singh (Abhay)
textabstractIn recent years there has been a tremendous growth in the influx of news related to traded assets in international financial markets. This financial news is now available via print media but also through real-time online sources such as internet news and social media sources. The
Bondo Hansen, Kristian
This paper contributes to the understanding of the role of crowds in the financial market by examining the historical origins and theoretical underpinnings of contrarian investment philosophy. Developed in non-scientific, practice-oriented ‘how to’ handbooks in 1920s and 1930s America, contrarian...... investment advice was aimed at so-called small investors rather than well-established market practitioners. Emerging out of late-nineteenth- and early-twentieth-century debates about public participation in the stock market, the contrarians expanded on a widely held (amongst financial writers) scepticism......’ conception of the market based on crowd psychology points to a fundamental fragility of market participants, which still lingers on in recent debates about the wisdom of financial market crowds....
Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene
Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.
Liang, Yuan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Ji-Ping
In the past two decades, statistical physics was brought into the field of finance, applying new methods and concepts to financial time series and developing a new interdiscipline "econophysics". In this review, we introduce several commonly used methods for stock time series in econophysics including distribution functions, correlation functions, detrended fluctuation analysis method, detrended moving average method, and multifractal analysis. Then based on these methods, we review some statistical properties of Chinese stock markets including scaling behavior, long-term correlations, cross-correlations, leverage effects, antileverage effects, and multifractality. Last, based on an agent-based model, we develop a new option pricing model — financial market model that shows a good agreement with the prices using real Shanghai Index data. This review is helpful for people to understand and research statistical physics of financial markets.
should make policies that boost the interest of domestic investors in Nigeria as this might spur investors' interest and boost stock market activity. Keywords: Stock Market Development, Economic Growth, Time Series. Analysis, Nigeria ... suggests that openness to world trade and stock market development are among the key ...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Relating to Membership in The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC August 23, 2012...\\ thereunder, notice is hereby given that on August ] 21, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or...
Do wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly in developed countries? The economic literature is skeptical about such effects which have so far only been found for poor retirees in poor countries. In this paper I show that wealth shocks also matter for the health of wealthy retirees in the US. I exploit the booms and busts in the US stock market as a natural experiment that generated considerable gains and losses in the wealth of stock-holding retirees. Using data from the Health and Reti...
Full Text Available The paper examines intraday and intraweek market returns on the Czech stock market for the search of time and seasonal anomalies in its activities during the last ten years. Existence or absence of anomalies indicates the efficiency of the market. A group of regression models and GARCH (1,1 model is used for the analysis of daily and high frequency data of the PX index. Time varying nature of market seasonalities is revealed with the Czech equity market having implications for changing efficiency over the studied period, when the Czech Republic’s accession to the EU implied the increase in efficiency and the global financial crisis led to opposite results and regularities, which are not yet fully overcomed. Additionally, significant hour-of-the-day effect (open jump effect in the index returns is established.
Full Text Available Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others' actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants.
Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J
This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.
HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.
SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244
Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel
During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.
Scholtens, B.; Peenstra, W.
We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000-2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for
Chen, Huan; Mai, Yong; Li, Sai-Ping
Random Matrix Theory (RMT) and the decomposition of correlation matrix method are employed to analyze spatial structure of stocks interactions and collective behavior in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China. The result shows that there exists prominent sector structures, with subsectors including the Real Estate (RE), Commercial Banks (CB), Pharmaceuticals (PH), Distillers&Vintners (DV) and Steel (ST) industries. Furthermore, the RE and CB subsectors are mostly anti-correlated. We further study the temporal behavior of the dataset and find that while the sector structures are relatively stable from 2007 through 2013, the correlation between the real estate and commercial bank stocks shows large variations. By employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, we show that this anti-correlation behavior is closely related to the monetary and austerity policies of the Chinese government during the period of study.
In this paper, we analyze the nonlinear properties of investor activity using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Using the aggregated trading volumes of buying, selling, and normalized net investor trading (NIT) to quantify the characteristics of trader behavior in the KOSPI market, we find that the cumulative distribution functions of all NIT time series, except for individual traders, follow a power-law distribution with an exponent in the range of 2.92 ≤ γ ≤ 3.87. To observe the nonlinear features of investor activity, we also calculate the multifractal spectra for the buyer, seller, and NIT data sets and find that a multifractal structure exists in all of the data, regardless of the investor type studied.
Full Text Available The study assesses the need for a derivative market as an integral of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. It also aims to evaluate the feasibility of establishing a derivative market as an essential element of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. The research identifies factors that need to be addressed to facilitate such a market. Views of various fund managers, financial analysts and dealers drawn from asset management firms were used. Changes in market trends are influenced by hyper inflation and acute financial policies increase the level of unpredictability in fund growth and return. Asset managers need to be in a market where they are able to actively manage and devise mechanisms that promote fund growth and managing the risks they are exposed to. The study revealed that there are many institutional arrangements lacking to facilitate this financial innovation. A thorough analysis of the research findings was made and it concluded that there is need for a derivative market as it can be an efficient vehicle for improving investment performance.
Full Text Available This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.
Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing
This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.
Iulia - Oana Ştefan (Belcic - Ştefan
Full Text Available The present study pursues highlighting the perspective of the Romanian stock market on the value of listed companies during a period fully marked by the presence of the global financial crisis. To this purpose I have analyzed 36 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange for a reference period of 5 years, i.e. 2009-2013. The study aimed to determine the level of the most relevant stock exchange indicators, respectively, the Price to Earnings Ratio, Price to Book Value and Dividend Yield and their evolutionary analysis, including by comparison with the average levels of the activity sectors that the companies which form the structure of the sample belong to.
Full Text Available Seminatural grasslands i.e. the floodplain meadows, seashore meadows, wooded meadows, dry meadows, wooded pastures are the very traditional part of Estonian landscapes, which play an important role in the appearance of the landscape in general and also serve as an important habitat for many plant and animal species. In order to preserve the seminatural grasslands continuous annual mowing and/or pasturing is needed. This activity is not economically profitable and needs subsidizing. The authors of the work raise a hypothesis that the Estonian seminatural grasslands could be viewed as a valuable non-market environmental good for which a significant public demand exists. In order to find out the non-market value of the seminatural grasslands a contingent valuation study was carried out among the Estonian working-age population (size of the sample 1061 individuals. The average individual willingness to pay was 11.3 euros. During the study, the authors constructed the total demand function and discovered that the total annual demand for seminatural grasslands was 17.9 million euros.
Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti
This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.
Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco
We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.
Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.
Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias
Many of the trading decisions that have led to financial crises are captured by vast, detailed stock market datasets. Here, we summarize two of our recent studies which investigate whether Internet usage data contain traces of attempts to gather information before such trading decisions were taken. By analyzing changes in how often Internet users searched for financially related information on Google (Preis et al., Sci Rep 3:1684, 2013) and Wikipedia (Moat et al., Sci Rep 3:1801, 2013), patterns are found that may be interpreted as "early warning signs" of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of economic decision making.
Full Text Available Events represent a significant source of information on the web; they deliver information about events that occur around the world in all subjects and areas. These events can be collected and organized to provide valuable and useful information for decision makers, researchers, as well as for any person seeking knowledge. In this paper, we discuss an ongoing research to target stock markets domain to observe and record changes (events when they happen, collect them, understand the meaning of each one of them, and organize the information along with meaning in a well-structured format. By using Semantic Role Labeling (SRL technique, we have identified four factors for each event in this paper: verb of action and three roles associated with it, entity name, attribute, and attribute value. We have generated a set of rules and techniques to support our approach to analyze and understand the meaning of the events that take place in stock markets.
Thuy Anh, Chu; Anh, Truong Thi Ngoc; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai
A generalized Bogoliubov method for investigation non-simple and complex systems was developed. We take two branch polariton Hamiltonian model in second quantization representation and replace the energies of quasi-particles by two distribution functions of research objects. Application to stock exchange market was taken as an example, where the changing the form of return distribution functions from Boltzmann-like to Gaussian-like was studied.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Huizinga, Harry
The authors examine to what extent features of the international tax system and indicators of transaction costs affect the required rates of return on emerging stock markets. They show that the capital gains withholding tax levied on foreign portfolio investors increases required pre-tax rates of return. As countries generally do not index their capital gains taxes, it follows that inflation increases the capital gains tax base, as well as the required rate of return on equity. Dividend withh...
Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to improve monitoring and control in the system of state regulation of the stock market and to develop practical recommendations for an integrated mechanism, which is aimed at stabilizing and improving the functioning of its state regulators. Methodology. The following research methods were used: analysis and synthesis – to identify the most important factors affecting the operation of the stock market, consolidation of trends and evaluation the effectiveness of individual measures of government regulation; statistical analysis, comparison and generalization – to study the effectiveness of the regulatory bodies of the stock market in Ukraine. Results. It’s necessary to introduce deoffshorization, which is a tool of economic mechanism of the development of state regulation of the stock market and optimal combination of the tax burden, comfortable business environment and the country’s stock market capitalization. Practical significance. Practical recommendations on the need to introduce deoffshorization in the stock market of Ukraine are seen as a tool of economic mechanism for further state regulation development of the stock market, used in the formation of proposals to introduce deoffshorization in the stock market in the Regulations of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market. Value/originality. Implementation of the deoffshorization in the stock market will allow the State to strengthen the protection of investors’ rights, it is a strategic goal of Ukraine, as well as to strengthen the local stock market and increase its credibility among the population.
José André C. M. Pereira
Full Text Available We examine four bookbuilding processes on the Brazilian stock market executed by an investment bank from 2003 to 2004. In a bookbuilding process, the investment bank has the discretionary power in pricing and in allocating shares to investors. We analyze the allocation determinants and we find empirical evidence that bookbuilding does induce investors to disclose superior information. However there is strong evidence that issues related to majority controlling position, liquidity on secondary market, and flipping activities impact on allocation criteria. We find differences between allocation determinants derived from (a initial public offerings and (b seasoned equity offerings, but in both cases there is a tendency to favor long term investors.
Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang
This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.
Vietha Devia Sagita
Full Text Available It is inevitable that the presidential election in the United States can caused stock market fluctuations both in the United States alone as well as in other countries, for example Indonesia. Using regression method and chow test this study aimed at the effects before and after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Using the data series shares the value of DJIA and ICI, this study analyzes the emergence of shock due to the change of president in United Staten share prices at the stock market in Indonesia. Based on the chow test result, the election of Donald Trump can provide a shock effect on ICI as well as DJIA, because the value of 6.917956 F count is larger than the value of 3,93 F table. DJIA positive influence on the value of ICI shares due to the election of Donald Trump is significantly below 5% at 1855.782. Meanwhile, before the election of Donald Trump DJIA has a negative influence on the ICI for - 1407.59. Based on that we can conclude that the election of Donald Trump bring a good impact on the growth of the Indonesian stock market.
Marcus Clements; Harminder Singh; Antonie Van Eekelen
In this study we examine both informed trading and contraire trading preceding takeover announcements on US target firms. Our findings suggest that both informed trading and contraire trading exists within the period preceding takeover announcements on both the stock and option markets as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes. In regard to contraire trading, this study investigates possible explanations for its existence including liquidity clustering, falsely informed trading ...
Bentes, Sónia R.
This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.
Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Market Overreaction is a very familiar and age-old craze amongst traders. Pigou (1929 defined it as a ‘conducting rod along which an error of optimism or pessimism, once generated, propagates itself about the business world.’ The question of whether or not Indian stock prices market is overreacted during any stock-specific news is best answered by a comprehensive and concurrent analysis of the various tests and data available while using the event study. This study wants to address the impact of size, volatility and asymmetry in the terms of investors’ overreaction to the firm-specific news not only individually but also jointly. The outcome of this study helps to solve the problem concerning the extent to which quarterly announcements have informational content, and whether the investors are affected by the signals. The present study substantiates the policy recommendation for the market players as well as for the analysts in estimating earning announcement events under different market condition and different market capitalization value of the firm.
Full Text Available Technical analysis is deemed to be an anathema to the modern finance theory as it contradicts with the efficient market hypothesis, typically the weak form market efficiency which forbids the utilization of past prices and trading volume data to predict future market movement. However, the technical indicator of candlestick trading strategy is widely applied by traders for short term investment. This study thus investigates on the predictive power of candlestick charting which concentrates on the application of continuation patterns in Malaysian stock market from 2000 to 2014. Skewness adjusted t-test is employed to test the statistical significance of candlesticks’ profitability. After taking into account the transaction costs, sub-sample, and out-of-sample test, the findings show that only Falling Window pattern after a prevailing downtrend shows predictive power with bearish signals indicated significantly during the 5-day holding period.
Pece Andreea Maria
Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to investigate market participants’ gregarious behaviour in Baltic stock markets, namely Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia during the period January 2003-December 2013. The herding behaviour derives from the investors’ irrationality, who trade financial assets based on their positive expectations about prices future growth, generating manias among other market participants, thus ignoring the real return rates and the risk levels of their investments.The investors’ irrational behaviour is influenced by actions, feelings and impulses that are intertwined: mimicry, fear, trust, greed, optimism, pessimism, euphoria, panic. These features highlight an erroneous perception of investors in point of unsustained increase in prices, which has been generated by the stock prices deviations from their fundamental value.Under these premises, optimism, overreaction and speculative bubbles are appearing on the market and may constitute triggering factors of a financial crash.The probability of the occurrence of the speculative bubbles and financial crashes is influenced by the continuous entry on the market of new investors and less informed participants, which often act based on impulse, following a benchmark, without considering their own analysis and information that they hold. The existence of a “collective behaviour” of the investors, which is manifested by their tendency to imitate other market participants actions and to “follow the herd”, so ignoring their own beliefs, may increase market sensitivity to shocks and the probability of the occurrence of the systemic risk.In order to identify the investors’ herding behaviour, I have applied an adjusted CSSD model proposed by (Yao, Ma, Peng He, 2014, which implies the inclusion of two additional variables, the first one, to reduce the effect of multicollinearity and a second one, a lag term of the dependent variable, in order to improve the power of the
Rizvi, Syed Aun R.; Dewandaru, Ginanjar; Bacha, Obiyathulla I.; Masih, Mansur
An efficient market has been theoretically proven to be a key component for effective and efficient resource allocation in an economy. This paper incorporates econophysics with Efficient Market Hypothesis to undertake a comparative analysis of Islamic and developed countries’ markets by extending the understanding of their multifractal nature. By applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) we calculated the generalized Hurst exponents, multifractal scaling exponents and generalized multifractal dimensions for 22 broad market indices. The findings provide a deeper understanding of the markets in Islamic countries, where they have traces of highly efficient performance particularly in crisis periods. A key finding is the empirical evidence of the impact of the ‘stage of market development’ on the efficiency of the market. If Islamic countries aim to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, an important area to address is to focus, among others, on enhancing the stage of market development.
Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura
The copula approach is a flexible tool known to capture linear, nonlinear, symmetric and asymmetric dependence between two or more random variables. It is often used as a co-movement measure between stock market returns. The information obtained from copulas such as the level of association of financial market during normal and bullish and bearish markets phases are useful for investment strategies and risk management. However, the study of co-movement between Malaysia and Japan markets are limited, especially using copulas. Hence, we aim to investigate the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan capital markets for the period spanning from 2000 to 2012. In this study, we showed that the bivariate normal distribution is not suitable as the bivariate distribution or to present the dependence between Malaysia and Japan markets. Instead, Gaussian or normal copula was found a good fit to represent the dependence. From our findings, it can be concluded that simple distribution fitting such as bivariate normal distribution does not suit financial time series data, whose characteristics are often leptokurtic. The nature of the data is treated by ARMA-GARCH with heavy tail distributions and these can be associated with copula functions. Regarding the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan markets, the findings suggest that both markets co-move concurrently during normal periods.
Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang
This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.
Kabir, Mohammed Rezaul; Goldberg, Lawrence G.
Most central banks issue stock that is held by the government and/or commercial banks and is not tradable. In contrast, stocks of the central banks of Belgium and Japan are traded on the Brussels and Tokyo stock exchanges. The purpose of the paper is to examine this unique phenomenon of stock market
Diamond, P A
In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant
Ying, Shangjun; Li, Xiaojun; Zhong, Xiuqin
This paper discusses the initial value sensitivity (IVS) of Chinese stock market, including the single stock market and the Chinese A-share stock market, with respect to real markets and evolving models. The aim is to explore the relationship between IVS of the Chinese A-share stock market and the investment psychology based on the evolving model of genetic cellular automaton (GCA). We find: (1) The Chinese stock market is sensitively dependent on the initial conditions. (2) The GCA model provides a considerable reliability in complexity simulation (e.g. the IVS). (3) The IVS of stock market is positively correlated with the imitation probability when the intensity of the imitation psychology reaches a certain threshold. The paper suggests that the government should seek to keep the imitation psychology under a certain level, otherwise it may induce severe fluctuation to the market.
Full Text Available We study the nonlinear autoregressive dynamics of stock index returns in seven major advanced economies (G7 and China. The quantile autoregression model (QAR enables us to investigate the autocorrelation across the whole spectrum of return distribution, which provides more insightful conditional information on multinational stock market dynamics than conventional time series models. The relation between index return and contemporaneous trading volume is also investigated. While prior studies have mixed results on stock market autocorrelations, we find that the dynamics is usually state dependent. The results for G7 stock markets exhibit conspicuous similarities, but they are in manifest contrast to the findings on Chinese stock markets.
Moro, Esteban; Vicente, Javier; Moyano, Luis G; Gerig, Austin; Farmer, J Doyne; Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N
We empirically study the market impact of trading orders. We are specifically interested in large trading orders that are executed incrementally, which we call hidden orders. These are statistically reconstructed based on information about market member codes using data from the Spanish Stock Market and the London Stock Exchange. We find that market impact is strongly concave, approximately increasing as the square root of order size. Furthermore, as a given order is executed, the impact grows in time according to a power law; after the order is finished, it reverts to a level of about 0.5-0.7 of its value at its peak. We observe that hidden orders are executed at a rate that more or less matches trading in the overall market, except for small deviations at the beginning and end of the order.
Full Text Available In this research, three variance ratio tests: the standard variance ratio test, the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test, and the non-parametric rank scores test are adopted to test the random walk hypothesis (RWH of stock markets in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region using most recent data from January 2010 to September 2012. The empirical results obtained by all three econometric tests show that the RWH is strongly rejected for Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco. However, the standard variance ratio test and the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test reject the null hypothesis of random walk in Jordan and KSA, while non-parametric rank scores test do not. We may conclude that Jordan and KSA stock market are weak efficient. In sum, the empirical results suggest that return series in Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco are predictable. In other words, predictable patterns that can be exploited in these markets still exit. Therefore, investors may make profits in such less efficient markets.
Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.
Roehner, Bertrand M.
We describe, document and statistically test three mechanisms by which corporations can influence or even control stock prices: (i) Parent and holding companies wield control over other publicly traded companies. (ii) Through clever management of treasury stock based on buyback programs and stock issuance, stock price fluctuations can be amplified or curbed. The shock of September 11, 2001 is used to test this effect. (iii) Finally, historical evidence shows that there is a close interdependence between the level of stock prices on the one hand and merger and acquisition activity on the other hand: on average, a 10% increase in the number of mergers brings about a 3% increase in the overall level of stock prices. If one adds up buybacks, initial public offerings and takeover transactions, all of which depend upon strategic decisions taken by corporate management, they represent on average 7.2% of the trade on the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1987-2003 (as much as 12% in specific years such as 1988). This perspective, in which the Boards of Directors of major companies “shepherd” the market, offers a natural interpretation of the so-called “herd behavior” observed in stock markets. The traditional view holds that, by driving profit expectations, corporations have an indirect role in shaping the market. In this paper, we suggest that over the last decades they became more and more the direct moving force of stock markets.
This paper deals with the problem of Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) topology modeling as a complex network during three different market regimes: general trend characterized by ups and downs, increasing trend, and decreasing trend. In particular, a set of seven different Hurst exponent estimates are used to characterize long-range dependence in each industrial sector generating process. They are employed in conjunction with hierarchical clustering approach to examine the co-movements of the Casablanca Stock Exchange industrial sectors. The purpose is to investigate whether cluster structures are similar across variable, increasing and decreasing regimes. It is observed that the general structure of the CSE topology has been considerably changed over 2009 (variable regime), 2010 (increasing regime), and 2011 (decreasing regime) time periods. The most important findings follow. First, in general a high value of Hurst exponent is associated to a variable regime and a small one to a decreasing regime. In addition, Hurst estimates during increasing regime are higher than those of a decreasing regime. Second, correlations between estimated Hurst exponent vectors of industrial sectors increase when Casablanca stock exchange follows an upward regime, whilst they decrease when the overall market follows a downward regime.
Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz
The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.
Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi
Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.
Alanyali, Merve; Moat, Helen Susannah; Preis, Tobias
The complex behavior of financial markets emerges from decisions made by many traders. Here, we exploit a large corpus of daily print issues of the Financial Times from 2(nd) January 2007 until 31(st) December 2012 to quantify the relationship between decisions taken in financial markets and developments in financial news. We find a positive correlation between the daily number of mentions of a company in the Financial Times and the daily transaction volume of a company's stock both on the day before the news is released, and on the same day as the news is released. Our results provide quantitative support for the suggestion that movements in financial markets and movements in financial news are intrinsically interlinked.
Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?
Adhitya Agri Putra
Full Text Available This research is aimed to examine effect of stock market development on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Research samples are 491 manufacture firms listed in stock market of Thailand Singapore Philippines Indonesia and Malaysia from 2012-2013. With regression analysis this research find that stock market development have effect on relationship between foreign ownership and profitability in ASEAN. Stock market development as a function of indicator of investor mood legal and policy making and management practices support foreign shareholder role in profits increasing. This research shows new evidence of role of macro economics level factor which is stock market development in ASEAN countries as foreign owners role supporting in profits increasing. Stock market development is important factor to answer inconsistencies of role of foreign owner since foreign ownership will be more growing up in open market between countries in profits increasing.
Sang Hoon Kang
Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of volatility spillovers among five Asian stock markets (China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan and examines how the global financial crisis of 2008 has influenced volatility transmission among Asian stock markets. The results from a VAR(1-bivariate GARCH model indicate strong volatility linkages between the Chinese stock market and the four emerging stock markets since the global financial crisis, suggesting the intensification of stock market integration in Asia since the crisis increases the integration of Chinese stock market in Asia. This strong integration of the markets is important in that the intensified linkages can reduce potential gains from the diversification of international equity portfolios.
Velimir Šonje; Denis Alajbeg; Zoran Bubaš
Traditional statistical tests of serial independence of stock price changes often show that stock markets are ineffi cient. Our analysis on daily and monthly data confirms this finding for the Croatian and U.S. markets in the 2002-2010 period. However, this result seems to be mainly due to the impact of the crisis of 2008-2009. The observation of monthly data in the pre-crisis period suggests market efficiency in the U.S. and (rather surprisingly) in Croatia also. Daily data indicate a hig...
for more than half a century. We report in particular on the insights obtained when portfolios are formed on the basis of the price-earnings multiple. The paper shows that there is a value premium. The paper also analyzes whether the premium is likely to be due to risk (Fama and French (1992......A number of influential studies have documented a strong value premium for US stocks over the period 1963 to 1990 (Fama and French (1992), Lakonishok et al. (1994)). Stocks with low price-earnings multiples, price-book values and other measures of value are reported to have given a higher mean...... return than the high multiple growth firms. Work by Basu (1997) and others have shown that the value dominance is also a feature of the earlier market history of the United States. The value premium is reported also to exist in a number of other countries over the period 1975 to 1995 (Fama and French...
Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.
This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.
Full Text Available We develop a simple behavioral macromodel to study interactions between the real economy and the stock market. The real economy is represented by a Keynesian-type goods market approach while the setup for the stock market includes heterogeneous speculators. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we find, for instance, that speculators may create endogenous boom-bust dynamics in the stock market which, by spilling over into the real economy, can cause lasting fluctuations in economic activity. However, fluctuations in economic activity may, by shaping the firms' fundamental values, also have an impact on the dynamics of the stock market.
Full Text Available This paper examines the reaction of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE to dividend announcements by a sample of firms listed at the FTSE/ATHEX 20 and FTSE/ATHEX Mid 40 for a fixed period 2004-2008. It also provides analytical information about the Greek Stock Market and the regulations underlying it, which have been taken into account in the present thesis. Moreover, previous studies of important academic scholars are presented and discussed, in order for the reader to attain the appropriate theoretical knowledge about the examined issue. Finally, significant abnormal activity is documented throughout the multiple event-windows that are employed and therefore, the null hypothesis, which supports the irrelevance theory as introduced by Miller and Modigliani (1961, is rejected.
Ayman H. Metwally
Full Text Available Traditional finance theories fail to explain several anomalies observed in security markets. High levels of market turnover are among the most challenging market puzzles that have been documented in many security markets. Several studies assert the correlation between past market return and current market turnover. Behavioral finance theories assume that overconfidence bias is the reason behind this relation. Hence, this paper aims to study the impact of overconfidence – a behavioral bias stemming from the second building block of behavioral finance “cognitive psychology” and affecting traders’ beliefs and thereby their trading behavior in form of excessive trading. DeBondt and Tahler (1995. The study tests the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian Stock market during the period from 2002 till 2012 on the aggregate market level trough examining the relation between market returns and market turnover in different market states, seeking to document or deny whether overconfidence bias encourages investors to trade or not . The whole period is divided into four sub periods; two tranquil upward trending (2005-2005 and (2005-2008 and two volatile and down ward trending (financial crisis 2008-2010 and the (Egyptian Revolution Period 2010-2012 A quantitative research using secondary data and applying time series statistical techniques is designed. The research is following Statman et al. (2006 methodology. Time series analysis, which is based on four statistical techniques; mainly Vector Auto Regression, Optimal Lag Selection, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality Tests are being used. Market Turnover ratios are used as proxies for overconfidence. The research finds a significant impact of past market return on current turnover in lag1, then turns negative in lag 2, and returns back positive in lag3, then remains positive and significant until lag5. This is in line with the overconfidence and self-attribution theory of Denial et al
Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.
Mr.Anand Ratilal Gyanbote, Prof.Rashmi Singh
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trading indicator is simple and has been widely used in financial markets to provide trading signals. The MACD-Histogram (MACDH) can be derived from MACD as a second-order trading signal of price actions. To reduce the lagging effects in MACD&MACDH, forecasted values are introduced in a hybrid trading signal, termed as the forecasted MACDH. A detailed trading simulation is performed for a single stock/commodity under a single long-short-MAC...
Bianchi, Sergio; Frezza, Massimiliano
The last systemic financial crisis has reawakened the debate on the efficient nature of financial markets, traditionally described as semimartingales. The standard approaches to endow the general notion of efficiency of an empirical content turned out to be somewhat inconclusive and misleading. We propose a topological-based approach to quantify the informational efficiency of a financial time series. The idea is to measure the efficiency by means of the pointwise regularity of a (stochastic) function, given that the signature of a martingale is that its pointwise regularity equals 1/2 . We provide estimates for real financial time series and investigate their (in)efficient behavior by comparing three main stock indexes.
Mei, Dexiang; Liu, Jing; Ma, Feng; Chen, Wang
In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.
Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman; Gan, Siew Lee
Since its introduction fifteen years ago, minimal spanning tree has become an indispensible tool in econophysics. It is to filter the important economic information contained in a complex system of financial markets' commodities. Here we show that, in general, that tool is not optimal in terms of topological properties. Consequently, the economic interpretation of the filtered information might be misleading. To overcome that non-optimality problem, a set of criteria and a selection procedure of an optimal minimal spanning tree will be developed. By using New York Stock Exchange data, the advantages of the proposed method will be illustrated in terms of the power-law of degree distribution.
Vietha Devia Sagita
It is inevitable that the presidential election in the United States can caused stock market fluctuations both in the United States alone as well as in other countries, for example Indonesia. Using regression method and chow test this study aimed at the effects before and after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Using the data series shares the value of DJIA and ICI, this study analyzes the emergence of shock due to the change of president in U...
Nguyen, Cuong; Ishaq Bhatti, M.; Henry, Darren
This paper employs Chi-plots, Kendall (K)-plots and three different copula functions to empirically examine the tail dependence between the US stock market and stock markets in Vietnam and China in order to test contagion effects pre- and post- the US subprime mortgage crisis. The results based on data between 2003 and 2011 indicate the presence of left tail dependence before and after the crisis suggesting no change in dependence structure, but there exists stronger left tail dependence between the US and Vietnam stock markets. It is observed that the US and Vietnam stock markets are more prone to crashing than booming together. For the Chinese market, the US and Shanghai stock markets exhibit left tail dependence before the crisis, but no evidence of post-crisis tail dependency. On the contrary, the Shenzhen stock market is independent of the US market before and after the crisis which implies that an extreme event in the US market is less likely to influence the Shenzhen stock market. This suggests that there is significant potential for risk diversification by investing in the Shenzhen market by US investors after the financial crisis. These results have not been documented in the existing literature and provide a new insight into risk diversification between the two important Asian emerging stock markets.
Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan
This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.
Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.
Morris, Michael W.; Sheldon, Oliver J.; Ames, Daniel R.; Young, Maia J.
We investigated two types of metaphors in stock market commentary. "Agent" metaphors describe price trajectories as volitional actions, whereas "object" metaphors describe them as movements of inanimate objects. Study 1 examined the consequences of commentators' metaphors for their investor audience. Agent metaphors, compared with object metaphors…
Berument, M Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak
There is an emerging but important literature on the effects of sport events such as soccer on stock market returns. After a soccer team's win, agents discount future events more favorably and increase risk tolerance. Similarly, after a loss, risk tolerance decreases. This paper directly assesses risk tolerance after a sports event by using daily data from the three major soccer teams in Turkey (Beşiktaşç Fenerbahge and Galatasaray). Results provide evidence that risk tolerance increases after a win, but similar patterns were not found after a loss.
Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D
In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.
Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of capital market and fiscal policy influences in determining the nexus of economic growth in Pakistan from July 2003 to July 2012. The authors utilize ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, VECM test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis to test the relationship among tax revenue, stock market and economic growth in Pakistan. Granger causality analysis is used to answer questions whether “Does tax revenue cause the economic growth?” or “Does tax revenue cause the capital market?”. The results demonstrate that there is a bidirectional casualty between tax revenue and economic growth; and a unidirectional causality from capital market to tax revenue. The estimated result shows that growth of Pakistan economy is strongly contributed from the high collection of direct tax revenue and the development of financial market activity. The findings of this paper have important implications to current and potential investors in Pakistan economy to understand the economic condition of Pakistan and to assist them in making their investment decision.
This study empirically examined the relationship between stock market performance and taxation in Malaysia over the period 1980 to 2008. The Gregory Hansen methodology was utilized to examine which tax collected by Malaysiaâ€™s Government most impacted stock market performance in Malaysia. The results show that stock market performance contributes most to the changes in company tax revenue as compared to personal taxes and real property gain taxes. In addition, the analysis detects a signific...
Purmonen, Sami; Griffin, Paul
Stock forecasting is a problem that is important in finance because it aids investors in financial decision making. According to the efficient market hypothesis stock markets are efficient in such a way that it's impossible to gain excess returns over the market by making decisions based on current available information. This paper evaluates the usage of machine learning algorithms and historical trading data for stock price prediction combined with investment strategies in order to test the ...
Kasilingam Lingaraja; Murugesan Selvam; Vinayagamoorthi Vasanth; Ramachandran Rajesh Ramkumar
.... This research study investigated the existence of long run portfolio diversification benefits and opportunities of eight emerging stock markets in Asia and three top, benchmark index of Developed Markets...
Recently it was shown that distributions of short-term price fluctuations in foreign-currency exchange exhibit striking similarities to those of velocity differences in turbulent flows. Similar profiles represent the spectral-diffusion behavior of impurity molecules in disordered solids at low temperatures. It is demonstrated that a microscopic statistical theory of the spectroscopic line shapes can be applied to the other two phenomena. The theory interprets the financial data in terms of information which becomes available to the traders and their reactions as a function of time. The analysis shows that there is no characteristic time scale in financial markets, but that instead stretched-exponential or algebraic memory functions yield good agreement with the price data. For an algebraic function, the theory yields truncated Lévy distributions which are often observed in stock exchange markets.
Benzaquen, M.; Mastromatteo, I.; Eisler, Z.; Bouchaud, J.-P.
The vast majority of market impact studies assess each product individually, and the interactions between the different order flows are disregarded. This strong approximation may lead to an underestimation of trading costs and possible contagion effects. Transactions in fact mediate a significant part of the correlation between different instruments. In turn, liquidity shares the sectorial structure of market correlations, which can be encoded as a set of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. We introduce a multivariate linear propagator model that successfully describes such a structure, and accounts for a significant fraction of the covariance of stock returns. We dissect the various dynamical mechanisms that contribute to the joint dynamics of assets. We also define two simplified models with substantially less parameters in order to reduce overfitting, and show that they have superior out-of-sample performance.
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to prove whether manager coped its earnings for the purpose ofinformative or target opportunistic. Research also investigated whether investment opportunity setinfl uenced the choice of manager to report as opportunistic to hide performance, or to report earningmore informative concerning with debt, political cost, market share, and earning. Sample of thisresearch was chosen by using purposive sampling of 350 manufacturing business listed in the JakartaStock Exchange, started from 1997 up to 2002. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM by using programof Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS was considered as the appropriate statistical technique toexamine pattern relation of formed model. The results showed that earning management conductedby manager in Developing Market such as Indonesia represented informative earning managementwhich meant all investors had more own belief in earning reporting, but this research could notprove that company owning high investment opportunity set tended to conduct informative earningmanagement.
... fractional cointegration relationships between the domestic direct property markets, the securitized property markets and the stock markets price indices in the case of the economies of Poland, of Austria...
Vogel, Eugenio; Saravia, G.; Astete, J.; Díaz, J.; Erribarren, R.; Riadi, F.
Information theory can help to recognize magnetic phase transitions, what can be seen as a way to recognize different regimes. This is achieved by means of zippers specifically designed to compact data in a meaningful way at is the case for compressor wlzip. In the present contribution we first apply wlzip to the Chilean stock market interpreting the compression rates for the files storing the minute variation of the IPSA indicator. Agitated days yield poor compression rates while calm days yield high compressibility. We then correlate this behavior to the value of the five retirement funds related to the Chilean economy. It is found that the covariance between the profitability of the retirement funds and the compressibility of the IPSA values of previous day is high for those funds investing in risky stocks. Surprisingly, there seems to be no great difference among the three riskier funds contrary to what could be expected from the limitations on the portfolio composition established by the laws that regulate this market.
Bartolozzi, M; Thomas, A W
In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, sigma(i) (t)=+1, or sell, sigma(i) (t)=-1, a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, sigma(i) (t)=0. The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P 500 index.
Bartolozzi, M.; Thomas, A. W.
In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, σi (t)=+1 , or sell, σi (t)=-1 , a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, σi (t)=0 . The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P500 index.
Full Text Available This paper can bedescribed as a significant exploratory study that will provide a significantcontribution to knowledge to consider crucial issues which need to be barriersto understanding or a temptation/ requirement to judge some practices as‘better’ than others for stock market development effective approach andimplement successful stock market performance and economic growth. Recentanalysis of the link between financial development and growth, gained frominsights acquired as a result of using the technique of endogenous growthmodels, has illustrated that growth without exogenous technical progress andthat growth rates could be related to technology, income distribution andinstitutional arrangements. This provides the theoretical background thatempirical studies have lacked; illustrating that financial intermediationaffects the level of economic growth. Resulting models have provided newimpetus to empirical research of the effects of financial development. Thebirth of the new endogenous growth theory has facilitated the development ofimproved growth models where the long-term rate could be affected by a numberof elements. These included technology, education and health policies in theprocess of economic development, capital accumulation, government policies andinstitutional activities in the role of financial development in economicgrowth.
Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.
Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.
Full Text Available The main aim of this study is to investigate the market reaction to stock grouping announcements in Borsa Istanbul which requires stocks to be classified into groups âAâ, âBâ and âCâ according to their market capitalization and floating rates. By utilizing event study analysis, our results suggest that grouping announcements have significant effect on stock prices and trading volume. The event day positive (negative relationship between abnormal return and volume for the upgraded (downgraded stocks supports the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis. Moreover, findings also suggest that stocks which are upgraded to Group A are exposed to more attention which is in line with the attention hypothesis. The reverse is valid for the downgraded firms. We find no evidence of price reversals and long-term symmetrical liquidity effect which lead us to reject price pressure and liquidity hypotheses. Finally, we reach controversial evidence for the information hypothesis. Keywords: Equity grouping, Regulation, Price and volume effects, Jel Classification: G11, G12, G14
Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.
Full Text Available As two important constituents of China’s macro economy, there are varieties relationships among the stock market, the estate market and China’s macro economy. In order to investigate these relationships, in this paper, especially with the Macroeconomic Boom Index reflecting China’s macro economy, we use cointegration theory and Granger analysis to demonstrate that there are long-term equilibrium relationship and bidirectional causality between the macro economy and the securities business, also between the macro economy and the real estate market, however, this kind of extended Equilibrium relationship and bidirectional causality appears very weak.
Robinson, James C
The hospital industry needs funds to refurbish physical facilities, upgrade clinical and information technologies, and rebuild financial positions weakened by past external challenges and unwise organizational strategies. The financial markets offer a marked contrast in capital access, as bond creditors remain skeptical while stock investors plunge back into the once-shunned industry. Ironically, high stock prices may drive the for-profit chains to repeat past cycles of overexpansion, while weak bond ratings may save non-profit systems from a comparable loss of focus on the core business of operating and improving inpatient facilities. This turbulence has implications for public payment, antitrust, and financial disclosure policies.
Full Text Available Volatility in the stock market had strongly affected by the movement of publicly or even inside information. The movements of this information will generate the perspectives and expectations of investors in decision-making. How strong is the level of market efficiency in determining the movement of stock market, especially to achieve stability in the stock market during the economic crisis? How effective are the policies of central banks in controlling the movement of the stock market? This study aims to measure the factors that influence changes in the movement of stock price in Indonesian stock market in terms of market efficiency hypothesis. This research also aims to investigate the effectiveness of central bank policy in controlling and stabilizing the movement of stocks in Indonesia. The research will focus on the economic crisis in 1997 and the global crisis in 2008 as case studies. Thepaperutilizesthe vector error-correction model, impulse responses and variance decomposition in measuring the contribution of the factors that affect the movement of stock and determine the effectiveness of central bank policy. The findings are beneficialto central banks, governments, companies and investors in strengthening the Indonesian Stock Market particularly in facing the threat of financial crisis.
Full Text Available In the stock market there occur some events that contradict the efficient market hypothesis therefore they are called anomalies. One of the mysterious corporate events which has attracted the attention of numerous researchers is a stock split. I perform the review of implications of splitting the stock for market liquidity of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the Vienna Stock Exchange. I use event study, in particular Market model method and Market adjusted return method, to inspect the behavior of abnormal changes in daily trading volume for stock splits performed between 2000 through 2011 over a short run and assuming a longer time interval. Moreover, I juxtapose the results for both stock exchanges to examine whether the stock split phenomenon for two major capital markets from this part of Europe can be better explained by means of existing theories on stock splits. The research is aimed at analyzing the implications of the split for market liquidity, i.e. whether there occurs an immediate effect following the split as well as whether this corporate event improves the level of market liquidity over long run. Furthermore, the goal of the paper is to investigate whether the investors can cash in on the stock split, more specifically, whether they can profit from lower transaction costs. I document a significant growth in the market liquidity of stock splitting firms over 36 months following the split for both capital markets what is indicative of lower transaction costs for investors. The 1–percent significant results are consistent with the liquidity hypothesis on stock splits.
Full Text Available Gardening is a popular pastime, but commercial horticulture is responsible for the introduction of alien species and contributes to invasions in a variety of ways. Although an extensive international literature is available on plant invasions, it is still important at the national level to examine the influence of local factors. Accordingly, 17 nurseries in Estonia that cultivated and sold perennial alien species were selected, and a list of species and prices was compiled. The relationships between species status, and factors such as their abundance in the wild were examined statistically. A qualitative list of the nationally problematic species among herbaceous perennials was also completed. A total of 880 taxa were recorded, of which 10.3% were native and 89.7% alien. In all, 87.3% of the alien species were still confined to cultivated areas. The ecological and socio-economic characteristics of the taxa were described, and lists of the families of casual, naturalised and invasive aliens were provided. Both native and increasing wild alien species have a very similar profile on the market. Alien species that are less expensive, widely available and have more cultivars per species on the market are also more likely to escape. The invasive status and abundance of escaped aliens in an area increases with residence time. In general, socio-economic factors create new and reflect previous propagule pressures from commercial horticulture, which continuously increase the likelihood of alien species surviving and invading new areas. Our findings suggest that these national socio-economic market-related factors explain much of the invasiveness of various perennial ornamental species, and therefore regional and national authorities urgently need to regulate and control the ornamental plant trade to diminish the risk of new invasions.
Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling
This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...
Full Text Available This paper explores the financial linkages between the Romanian stock marketand the exchange market in the context of the global crisis. We investigate suchrelations for two periods of time: one from January 2006 to February 2008,when the Romanian financial markets were quite tranquil and the other fromMarch 2008 to September 2009, while the global crisis effects wereconsiderable for Romania. For the first period of time we could not provesignificant relations between the foreign exchange market and the stock market.Instead, for the second period of time we found a unidirectional causality fromthe exchange rates to the stock prices.
Kronberg, Janika, 1963-
Sisu: Estonian literature - born on the margins of Europe ; Baltic German literature and its impact ; Seeking the contours of a 'truly' Estonian literature ; Literature and an independent Estonia ; Estonian literature in two cultural spheres ; The fifties and sixties ; Literature and congealed time ; A bold new Estonian literature
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that, on May 25, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or... market quality by making markets in a large number of stocks and that contribute to price discovery by...
Udoka Bernard Alajekwu
Full Text Available The study examined the effect of investor sentiment on future returns in the Nigerian stock market. The OLS regression and granger causality techniques were employed for data analyses. The results showed that (1 investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on stock market returns even after control for fundamentals such as Industrial production index, consumer price index and Treasury bill rate; (2 there is a uni-directional causality that runs from change in investor sentiment (ΔCCI to stock market returns (Rm. Derived finding showed that the inclusion of fundamentals increased the explanatory power of investor sentiment from 3.96% to 33.05%, though at both level, investor sentiment (ΔCCI has low explanatory power on stock market returns. The study posits existence of a dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and the behaviour of stock future returns in Nigeria such that higher sentiment concurrently leads to higher stock prices.
Jan 24, 2012 ... Abstract. This study investigated the role of stock market development on economic growth of Nigeria using a 15-year time series data from 1994 - 2008. The method of analysis used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study measures the relationship between stock market development ...
Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez
Full Text Available Through the Hodrick-Prescott methodology this paper presents a review about the relationship between the ex post risk premium of the stock market and business cycles observed in Colombia. Through quarterly information from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2012, statistical evidence shows that the increase and decrease of ex post risk premium follow a countercyclical behavior in tune with existing research conducted about the United States and emerging economies, although with non-contemporary relationships with private consumption. In addition, it is found that in the last decade the Colombian risk premium follows a process of Auto Regressive Moving Average Models (ARMA, showing that there is no variation in at least two consecutive quarters and whose behavior is generated in part by external events at the domestic economic activity level experienced in near past periods.
Shipra Banik; A. F. M. Khodadad Khan; Mohammad Anwer
Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsigh...
Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.
Dickgießer, Carl Philipp Sebastian
This dissertation studies two distinct aspects of directors’ dealings in the German stock market. First, it is empirically examined if insiders trade strategically around news announcements. The results show that while insiders do trade prior to ad-hoc announcements, trading activity increases in particular after news events. This suggests that insiders delay their transactions to periods of time that are associated with low reputational and litigation risks. The second empirical study is con...
Full Text Available Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect, indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.
Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.
Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716
Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine shareholders’ reaction to the decision of the supervisory board to appoint a CEO in companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Methodology: An event study and the mean-adjusted model were applied. The abnormal returns were measured as the CAAR in the entire (-60, + 60 window and selected sub-windows. Findings: The obtained values of abnormal returns indicate the shareholder’s negative reaction. Throughout the observation window, they oscillate slightly below zero, and in the window (0, +20 they are negative at -1.566%. Irrespective of the observation window, negative abnormal returns were obtained for over half of the observation (52–57%. Therefore, preliminary results indicate the predominance of the information effect over the real one. The decrease in market value as a result of the event may result from an increase in investors’ uncertainty as to the effects of changes in strategy and skills of the new CEO. Originality: The research is a unique one. To date, no one has carried out research into shareholders’ reaction to a CEO appointment in either the Polish or Central and Eastern European capital markets. They primarily bring the value of cognition of shareholders’ behaviour in the analysed event, which is reﬂected in share prices. They extend the literature on the signalization instruments, i.e. the activities that boards can undertake due to the new information transmitted to the capital market participants and stakeholders. The market reaction to a CEO appointment will without a doubt interest investors; the institutions responsible for supervision (which in the case of Poland is the Financial Oversight Commission and the legislator in charge of regulations that prevent insider trading while promoting corporate disclosure transparency.
Full Text Available We examined the presence of volatility at the Karachi Stock Exchange (recently changed the name to Pakistan Stock Exchange (KSE by fitting Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH model to 25 years’ index data. We found that the ARCH effects are present in the data indicating the stock market cluster volatility during the period under study. We found persistent high volatility in the stock market and presence of negative leverage effect. Moreover, we tried to identify the factors causing stock market volatility by collecting and analyzing the primary data obtained from 246 individual investors of stock market and 28 brokers listed with KSE. Our results show that investors consider political situation as the most important factor causing turbulence in the stock market. Interviews with the brokers also confirmed this. The second most important factor identified by investors is the herd behavior among investors that results in over- and underpricing of stocks and the overall market shows a volatile behavior. Our findings suggest that individual investor’s behavioral dimensions of involvement, risk attitude, and overconfidence are significantly associated with factors causing market volatility.
Full Text Available The sub prime mortgages crises took place in July, 2007 in US which causes the large scare in the global financial markets, and the international stock and foreign market suffer heavy shock. Using twenty international stock indexes, this study examines whether any contagion effect occurred across international markets after the sub-prime financial mortgage crisis in US. Using the heteroscedasticity biases based on correlation coefficients to examine the existence of the contagion effect, this study shows that stock markets of some countries (namely Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand did suffer from the contagion effect.
Full Text Available The integration of global equity markets has been a well-studied topic in the last few decades, particularly after stock market crashes. Most studies have focused on developed markets such as the US, Western Europe and Japan. The findings were that the degree of international co-movements among stock prices has substantially increased in the post-crash regime. In this paper we research the co-movements of German and Bosnian stock markets during and after the recent economic and financial crisis.
Full Text Available This study aims at empirically examining whether there are differences in stock returns between conventional and Islamic stock returns In Indonesia for the period 2010-2013. This study also attempts to explore the effect of asset management and profitability both stock returns in Indonesia. Annual pooled data gathered from the annual financial reports of 100 conventional and Islamic stock returns, which were published by the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2013 were used and analyzed by using the independent t-test and panel multivariate regression analysis. The result shows that there was no difference in stock returns between the conventional and Islamic stock markets. Additionally, the study documents that only profitability, which is measured by market ratio, was found to have an influence on the conventional stock markets. Meanwhile, as for Islamic stock market, only management of assets was found to have a significant effect on the stock return. These findings imply that investors who are investing in both Islamic and conventional markets would gain similar returns. However, in predicting and stabilizing the stock markets, both investors and policy makers should focus on the profitability for the conventional and management of assets for the Islamic stock market.
Dror Y Kenett
Full Text Available What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.
Kenett, Dror Y; Tumminello, Michele; Madi, Asaf; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Mantegna, Rosario N; Ben-Jacob, Eshel
What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.
Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to investigate the international linkages among local, country-specific stock market factors in order to better understand the dependence structure of increasingly integrated world financial markets. The seeming discordance between Fama and French (1998 and Griffin (2002 regarding the multi-factor model in the international stock markets motivates us to study the international relationship among local factors. With the individual stock data from the six major developed countries in the international stock market, we compose daily returns to the Fama-French three factors (i.e. market, size, and value and the momentum factor over the period from January 2000 to June 2010. We investigate the international linkages among local stock market factors, focusing on their equilibrium relationship in the integrated world financial market. The cointegration analysis indicates that local factor indices, constructed from the cumulative factor returns, are cointegrated for each of the four factor classes. Thus, we conclude that local factors are globally bound to each other through a long-run equilibrium relationship and that although stock market factors may be local, rather than global, individual stock returns are driven by common global stochastic trends.
Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to explore the nature of the association and the possible existence of a shortrun and long-run relationship between the stock-market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The idea behind this combination is to know how the stock markets of these three prominent countries are related to each other. The study employs monthly data from the stock indices, namely JALSH (South Africa, NIFTY (India and NASDAQ (USA composite from April 2004 to March 2014. After testing for the normality of the data distribution and the stationarity of the time series data, this paper discovered a strong correlation between the stock market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The correlation among the stock markets is high, particularly between South Africa and India. In addition, the paper attempts to discover the presence of any predictive ability among these markets by applying the Granger causality test. The result indicates that the NASDAQ index has no predictive ability as far as the JALSH and NIFTY indices are concerned. However, the JALSH index has a predictive ability on the NIFTY index. After testing the Granger cause relationship, the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship is tested. The long-run relationships among the stock market indices are analysed, following the Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach. The result suggests the absence of a long-run relationship among the three stock market indices. Short-run relationship is investigated with the Vector Autoregression (VAR model, and the outcome obtained shows that both the USA and the South African stock markets are predicted only by their own past lags. However, the Indian stock market is seen to be a function of its own past lags and the past lags of the South African stock index.
Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.
Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu
In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.
Prasad Bhattacharaya; Harminder Singh
This paper uses Indian stock futures data to explore unbiased expectations and efficient market hypothesis. Having experienced voluminous transactions within a short time span after its establishment, the Indian stock futures market provides an unparalleled case for exploring these issues involving expectation and efficiency. Besides analyzing market efficiency between cash and futures prices using cointegration and error correction frameworks, the efficiency hypothesis is also investigated a...
Dinis Oliveira, André
Predicting nancial markets is a task of extreme di culty. The factors that in uence stock prices are extremely complex to model. Machine Learning algorithms have been widely used to predict nancial markets with some degree of success. This Master's project aims to study the application of these algorithms to the Portuguese stock market, the PSI-20, with special emphasis on genetic programming and the introduction of the concept of semantics in the process of evolution. Thr...
Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk
Many analysts, who had anticipated a great market anxiety resulting in market-wide stock price losses over the event of a Trump presidential victory, remain puzzling through why the market rebounded since the next election day. Whatever the reason, investors appear to be digesting Trump's win speedier than expected. The present paper examines, at sectoral level, the behavior of a variety of US stock price indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite) surrounding the ann...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate..., notice is hereby given that on April 28, 2011 The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ... between the inside market and the midpoint for stocks at this price level is likely to be extremely small...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on March 30, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'') filed... the NASDAQ Market Center for securities listed on NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange (``NYSE''). As...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... hereby given that on November 1, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed... of the Proposed Rule Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to create a new Rule 7056 entitled...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... thereunder,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that, on August 25, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange... become active in more stocks and display more shares of liquidity, thereby benefiting other market...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... hereby given that on November 14, 2013, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed... are bracketed.\\3\\ \\3\\ Changes are marked to the rules of The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC found at http...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on October 6, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or... provides all routing functions for The NASDAQ Stock Market (``NASDAQ'') as well as, pursuant to recent...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Amend NASDAQ Stock Market Equities Trading Rules 4757 and 4758 and... 13, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (the ``Exchange'' or ``NASDAQ'') filed with the Securities and...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... given that on February 13, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or ``Exchange'') filed with the... Rule Change The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC proposes to modify Chapter XV, Section 2, governing pricing for...
Full Text Available Recently, due to the development of social media, multimedia, and the Internet of Things (IoT, various types of data have increased. As the existing data analytics tools cannot cover this huge volume of data, big data analytics becomes one of the emerging technologies for business today. Considering that big data analytics is an up-to-date term, in the present study, we investigated the impact of implementing big data analytics in the short-term perspective. We used an event study methodology to investigate the changes in stock price caused by announcements on big data analytics solution investment. A total of 54 investment announcements of firms publicly traded in NASDAQ and NYSE from 2010 to 2015 were collected. Our results empirically demonstrate that announcement of firms’ investment on big data solution leads to positive stock market reactions. In addition, we also found that investments on small vendors’ solution with industry-oriented functions tend to result in higher abnormal returns than those on big vendors’ solution with general functions. Finally, our results also suggest that stock market investors highly evaluate big data analytics investments of big firms as compared to those of small firms.
Full Text Available Gold with special nature has always been regarded as a safe asset. This paper examine whether gold serves as a hedge for stock or/and inflation in China mainland market. Employing improved classic methods, and some new methods, such as quantile regression and binary probit model, our empirical results show, for short-term investors, that gold always cannot hedge stock and inflation risk. But it is actually a good hedge for stock or inflation if you would hold gold for a long time. However, it is regrettable that gold is not a safe haven when investors face with stock and inflation risk in china capital market anyway.
Gündüz, Güngör; Gündüz, Aydın
of stock index value although they describe different properties. Entropy fluctuates at fast increase and fast fall of index value, and fluctuation becomes very high at minimum values of the index. The curvature of a circle passing from the two ends of the vector and the point of intersection of its horizontal and vertical components designates the reactivity involved in the market and the radius of circle behaves somehow similar to entropy and Wiener noise. The change of entropy and Wiener noise with radius exhibits patterns with four branches.
Arif, Imtiaz; Suleman, Tahir
This paper investigated the impact of prolonged terrorist activities on stock prices of different sectors listed in Karachi Stock Exchange by using newly developed terrorism impact factor index with lingering effect (TIFL) and monthly time series data from 2002(Jan) to 2011(Dec). Johansen and Jeuselius cointegration revealed long run relationship between terrorism and stock price. Normalized cointegration vectors are used to test the effect of terrorism on stock price. Results demonstrated si...
Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano
An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.
Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Hernandez, Jose Areola; Rehman, Mobeen Ur; Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed; Zakaria, Muhammad
This paper applies a bivariate cross-quantilogram approach to examine the spillover network structure in the stock markets of 58 countries according to bearish, normal and bullish market scenarios. Our aim is to identify the strongest interdependencies, the directionality of the spillover risk effects, and to detect those equity markets with the potential to cause global systemic risk. The results highlight the role of the US and Canadian equity markets as major spillover transmitters, while the stock markets of Romania, Taiwan and Mexico act mainly as spillover receivers. Particularly strong spillovers are observed from the Canadian and US equity markets towards the Irish market, and from the Brazilian equity market towards the Kenyan equivalent. The equity market networks suggest that only the US equity market can trigger systemic risk on a global scale. Implications of the results are discussed.
Granero, Roser; Tárrega, Salomé; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Aymamí, Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Moragas, Laura; Custal, Núria; Orekhova, Lisa; Savvidou, Lamprini G; Menchón, José M; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana
Stock market investment (SMI) is one of the most socially acceptable types of gambling, which, however, can turn into a gambling problem. Because it is barely examined, we compared a series of clinical, psychopathologic, and personality variables in SMI gambling patients (both as primary and secondary problem) with a group of traditional pathologic gamblers (PGs). A total sample of 1470 PGs (1376 patients without SMIs [PG-SMI], 76 patients with SMI as a secondary gambling problem [PG+SMI], and 18 patients with SMI as a primary gambling problem [SMI+PG]) participated in this study. All participants were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria. The following instruments were used: the South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Symptom Check List-90 Items-Revised, the Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised, and other clinical and psychopathologic indices. The 3 patient groups' profiles were statistically similar in psychometrical measures. The risk of having SMI increased for patients with higher education, and the presence of SMI as a primary problem in PGs increased with university study level and higher scores on the personality trait of cooperativeness. The results of this study indicate comparability of SMI gamblers with PGs in their general clinical profile and in psychopathology and personality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Banik, Shipra; Khodadad Khan, A F M; Anwer, Mohammad
Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsighted assets. This paper proposes a rough set model, a neural network model, and a hybrid neural network and rough set model to find optimal buy and sell of a share on Dhaka stock exchange. Investigational findings demonstrate that our proposed hybrid model has higher precision than the single rough set model and the neural network model. We believe this paper findings will help stock investors to decide about optimal buy and/or sell time on Dhaka stock exchange.
Full Text Available Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsighted assets. This paper proposes a rough set model, a neural network model, and a hybrid neural network and rough set model to find optimal buy and sell of a share on Dhaka stock exchange. Investigational findings demonstrate that our proposed hybrid model has higher precision than the single rough set model and the neural network model. We believe this paper findings will help stock investors to decide about optimal buy and/or sell time on Dhaka stock exchange.
Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.
Stanislav S Borysov
Full Text Available We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.
Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis
We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing
Plamen Ch Ivanov
Full Text Available We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising
Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis
We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing
This article revisits the discussion on the functions that the emerging stock markets are intended to perform when they are established. In order to fulfill such functions, certain levels of "market micro-structure" characteristics should be obtained. Such micro-structure features include liquidity, market size and enabling ...
de Gooijer, J.G.; Sivarajasingham, S.
TThis study investigates long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among eleven stock markets, six industrialized markets and five emerging markets of South-East Asia. We cover the period 1987—2006, taking into account the on-set of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We first apply a test for
Full Text Available Based on the dividend policy and theory, this article takes the events that A stock of all the listed banking companies (16 in total issued dividend in the CSI stock market for 5 years from 2008 to 2012 as the investigation samples to inspect the relevance of dividend policy with the fluctuation of stock price and transaction volume, thus to prove the dividend policy is an efficient mechanism for information transmission.
Kabir, M.R.; Roosenboom, P.G.J.
This paper examines whether the stock market valuation impact of rights issues is consistent with subsequent operating performance of issuing firms. Analysing a sample of rights issues in the Netherlands, we find that a significant stock price decline takes place with the announcement of rights
Piplack, J.; Beine, M.; Candelon, B.
This paper analyzes common factors in the continuous volatility component, co-extreme and co-jump behavior of a sample of stock market indices. In order to identify those components in stock price processes during a trading day we use high-frequency data and techniques. We show that in most of the
Spierdijk, L.; Bikker, J.A.; van den Hoek, P.
This paper analyzes mean reversion in international stock markets during the period 1900-2008, using annual data. Our panel of stock indexes in seventeen developed countries, covering a time span of more than a century, allows us to analyze in detail the dynamics of the mean-reversion process. In
Spierdijk, L.; Bikker, J.A.; van den Hoek, P.
This paper analyzes mean reversion in the stock markets of 18 OECD countries during the years 1900-2009. In this period it takes stock prices about 18.5 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean
Teral, Maarika; Rammo, Sirje
This presentation focuses on computer-assisted learning of Estonian, one of the lesser taught European languages belonging to the Finno-Ugric language family. Impulses for this paper came from Estonian courses that started in the University of Tartu in 2010, 2011 and 2012. In all the courses the students gain introductory knowledge of Estonian and…
Atman, A. P. F.; Gonçalves, Bruna Amin
One of the pillars of the finance theory is the efficient-market hypothesis, which is used to analyze the stock market. However, in recent years, this hypothesis has been questioned by a number of studies showing evidence of unusual behaviors in the returns of financial assets ("anomalies") caused by behavioral aspects of the economic agents. Therefore, it is time to initiate a debate about the efficient-market hypothesis and the "behavioral finances." We here introduce a cellular automaton model to study the stock market complexity, considering different behaviors of the economical agents. From the analysis of the stationary standard of investment observed in the simulations and the Hurst exponents obtained for the term series of stock index, we draw conclusions concerning the complexity of the model compared to real markets. We also investigate which conditions of the investors are able to influence the efficient market hypothesis statements.
Ma, Junjun; Xiong, Xiong; He, Feng; Zhang, Wei
The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.
Nurasyikin Jamaludin; Shahnaz Ismail; Syamimi Ab Manaf
This paper aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply, and exchange rate on both conventional and Islamic stock market returns in the three selected ASEAN countries...
Ordinary least squares regression (OLS) was employed using the data from 1989 to 2008. The results indicated that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and all the stock market development variables used. With 99 percent ...
Mazharul H. Kazi
Full Text Available This paper identifies the systematic risk factors for the Australian stock market by applyingthe cointegration technique of Johansen. In conformity with the finance literature andinvestors’ common intuition, relevant a priori variables are chosen to proxy for Australiansystematic risk factors. The results show that only a few systematic risk factors are dominantfor Australian stock market price movements in the long-run while short-run dynamics are inplace. It is observed that the linear combination of all a priori variables is cointegratedalthough not all variables are significantly influential. The findings show that bank interestrate, corporate profitability, dividend yield, industrial production and, to a lesser extent, globalmarket movements are significantly influencing the Australian stock market returns in thelong-run; while in the short-run it is being adjusted each quarter by its own performance,interest rate and global stock market movements of previous quarter.
Full Text Available This paper offers a preliminary analysis regarding the convergence of European stock markets. The sample consists of all 27 countries of European Union split in seven sub-groups related to income level, euro adoption and development level. The patterns analysed through this article are an important indication of expected convergence in EU stock markets. This study analyses the evolution and the trend of market capitalization and stocks traded and their correlation with some important determinants, namely inflation, capital formation, enrolment years, trade, FDI, government debt. Results show a negative correlation between initial level of market capitalisation and its growth rate and also of initial level of stocks traded and its growth rate. These results could be a sign of absolute convergence. Further research in this area is needed to see if there exists conditional convergence when heterogeneity among individuals is controlled for.
Iamandi Irina Eugenia; Constantin Laura Gabriela; Cernat-Gruici Bogdan
Based on empirical studies and theoretical evidence, the paper investigates the relationship between mergers and acquisitions in Romania and Romanian stock market, described by the BET and BET-C indexes...
Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in South Africa. The exponential GARCH (Nelson, 1991 model is applied. It finds that South Africa’s stock market index is positively influenced by the growth rate of real GDP, the ratio of the money supply to GDP and the U.S. stock market index and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the domestic inflation rate, and the U.S. government bond yield. Therefore, to maintain a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, fiscal prudence, a higher ratio of the money supply to GDP, a lower real interest rate, depreciation of the rand, and/or a lower inflation rate.
Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.
The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.
Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.
Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah
Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...\\ notice is hereby given that on January 11, 2012, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'') filed with the... remove impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... is hereby given that on June 30, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'' or the ``Exchange... mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in general, to protect investors and...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on December 9, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``NASDAQ'' or the... impediments to and perfect the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system, and, in...
... COMMISSION Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate... given that on November 22, 2011, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Exchange''), filed with the Securities... and open market and a national market system, and, in general, protect investors and the public...
Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis. PMID:21857954
Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.
Full Text Available Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method, we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y. In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i and (ii. First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.
Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai
This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index...
Дмитро Сергійович Богач
Full Text Available The basic principles of formation of an investment portfolio in modern financial markets are determined. A method of forming stock portfolio due to the statistical properties of stationary process and relations between the behavior of stocks and economic sector, characterizing these actions, is proposed. Optimal points of recalculation of model depends on changes in current trends in the financial market is described
ALAM, Zaheer; RASHID, Kashif
The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between Karachi stock market 100 index and macroeconomic variables, i.e., inflation, industrial production, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate. The long term relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns has been analyzed by using Johnson Cointegration test, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH LM)...
Ali Akbar Farzinfar
Full Text Available This research investigates the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market. In this study, all required data are collected from aware shareholders and provide a sampling of 130 questionnaires, the data collected over the period 2010-2011 using test methods such as computer software, data analysis and statistical methods to answer research questions. According to research result through questionnaires and tests, there is a significant relationship between stock returns and the auditor's opinion, in fact, for aware shareholders of the company the auditor’s opinion has a special message. This message is based on the results of study hypothesis in comparison with previous research with regard to changes in the questionnaire and provides assumptions that are more detailed. The first finding is that unqualified audit report has a positive impact on stock returns of companies with a medium to low degree. Adverse audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Disclaimer of audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Finally, qualifying paragraphs, which modified the items of income statement items have more impact in comparison with qualifying paragraphs which modified the Balance Sheet items.
van der Ploeg, A.P.C.
Accumulating empirical evidence indicates that stock volatilities are driven by more than one latent factor. In this paper we provide additional evidence by combining FTSE100 stock-index data and three at-the-money option series of various maturities in a Kalman filter-based QML estimation strategy
Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Lee, James Chun-Yin; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Li, Tim Man-Ho; Ip, Patrick; Chow, Chun-Bong
Although a few studies investigated the impact of stock market fluctuations on population health, the question of whether stock market fluctuations have an impact on self-harm in children and adolescents remain unanswered. This study therefore investigated the association between stock market fluctuations and self-harm among children and adolescents in Hong Kong. Daily self-harm attendance records were retrieved from all 18 local Accident and Emergency Departments (AED) from 2001 to 2012. 4931 children and adolescents who committed self-harm were included. The results indicated positive correlation between daily change in stock market index, Hang Seng Index (∇HSI, per 300 points), and daily self-harm incident risk of children and adolescents, without time lag between the two. The incident risk ratio for ∇HSI was 1.09 ( p = 0.0339) in children and 1.06 ( p = 0.0246) in adolescents. Importantly, non-trading days were found to impose significant protective effect in both groups against self-harm risk. Our results showed that stock market fluctuations were related to self-harm behaviors in children and adolescents. Parents and professionals should be educated about the potential harm of stock market fluctuations and the importance of effective parenting in reducing self-harm among children and adolescents.
Jiang, Yan; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Chunna; Wang, Quanyi; Xu, Chao; Donovan, Connor; Ali, Gholam; Xu, Tan; Sun, Wenjie
This study aims to discuss the correlation between daily reported H7N9 cases and stock price indices in China. Information on daily reported H7N9 cases and stock market sectors indices between February 19, 2013 and March 31, 2014 were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to describe the variation trend for the stock indices. The daily reported number of H7N9 cases was associated with the closing price of the Avian Influenza Sector Index (P stock prices.
Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai
This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.
Shi, Huai-Long; Zhou, Wei-Xing
This paper concentrates on the time series momentum or contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market. We evaluate the performance of the time series momentum strategy applied to major stock indices in mainland China and explore the relation between the performance of time series momentum strategies and some firm-specific characteristics. Our findings indicate that there is a time series momentum effect in the short run and a contrarian effect in the long run in the Chinese stock market. The performances of the time series momentum and contrarian strategies are highly dependent on the look-back and holding periods and firm-specific characteristics.
Han, Rui-Qi; Xie, Wen-Jie; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
The correlation structure of a stock market contains important financial contents, which may change remarkably due to the occurrence of financial crisis. We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 Chinese stocks. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the market index in two time periods of one year are investigated. We find that the Chinese stocks have stronger average correlation and partial correlation in 2008 than in 2007 and the average partial correlation is significantly weaker than the average correlation in each period. Accordingly, the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix is remarkably greater than that of the partial correlation matrix in each period. Moreover, each largest eigenvalue and its eigenvector reflect an evident market effect, while other deviating eigenvalues do not. We find no evidence that deviating eigenvalues contain industrial sectorial information. Surprisingly, the eigenvectors of the second largest eigenvalues in 2007 and of the third largest eigenvalues in 2008 are able to distinguish the stocks from the two exchanges. We also find that the component magnitudes of the some largest eigenvectors are proportional to the stocks’ capitalizations.
Hong, Harrison; Torous, Walter; Valkanov, Rossen
We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. Using thirty-four industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, we establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as retail, services, commercial real estate, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to two months. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry...
Full Text Available This article deals with one of the important parts of applying chaos theory to financial and capital markets – namely searching for long memory effects in time series of financial instruments. Source data are daily closing prices of Central Europe stock market indices – Bratislava stock index (SAX, Budapest stock index (BUX, Prague stock index (PX and Vienna stock index (ATX – in the period from January 1998 to September 2007. For analysed data R/S analysis is used to calculate the Hurst exponent. On the basis of the Hurst exponent is characterized formation and behaviour of analysed financial time series. Computed Hurst exponent is also statistical compared with his expected value signalling independent process. It is also operated with 5-day returns (i.e. weekly returns for the purposes of comparison and identification nonperiodic cycles.
Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Diebold, Francis X.
Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics...... are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly...... to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news....
Yang, Yujun; Li, Jianping; Yang, Yimei
In this paper, we propose a new method called DH-MXA based on distribution histograms of Hurst surface and multiscale multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The method allows us to investigate the cross-correlation characteristics among multiple properties of different stock time series. It may provide a new way of measuring the nonlinearity of several signals. It also can provide a more stable and faithful description of cross-correlation of multiple properties of stocks. The DH-MXA helps us to present much richer information than multifractal detrented cross-correlation analysis and allows us to assess many universal and subtle cross-correlation characteristics of stock markets. We show DH-MXA by selecting four artificial data sets and five properties of four stock time series from different countries. The results show that our proposed method can be adapted to investigate the cross-correlation of stock markets. In general, the American stock markets are more mature and less volatile than the Chinese stock markets.
Rauhamaa, P; Kantola, M; Viitak, A; Kaasik, T; Mussalo-Rauhamaa, H
The objective of this study is to sum up the dietary selenium intake of the Estonian people according to the serum selenium concentrations. This research compiles the information published in the literature about the levels of selenium in the serum of the Estonian people. We compare these results with the findings obtained from the analyses of serum samples gathered by us in the 1990s in Estonia. The selenium concentration in sera of 404 Estonians ranged from 26 to 116 microg/l; the mean was 75 microg/l. The selenium contents of Estonians were at a similar level as reported for Finns before the selenium supplementation of fertilizers carried out in Finland in 1984. In view of the selenium concentration in the sera, we suggest that the dietary selenium intake among the Estonian people might be scarce, and Estonian authorities should consider in their nutrition policies the possible low intake of selenium of Estonians.
Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun
Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk.
Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun
Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk. PMID:28771514
Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.
Full Text Available Oil prices are often considered as a vital economic factor due to the dependence of the world economy on oil. The goal of this paper is to contribute to the literature on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and stock prices under the presence of possible structural breaks in an emerging market, Turkey. The empirical evidence suggests that the oil prices are important in explaining the stock market movements. Stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are found as cointegrated after taking structural breaks into account. Moreover, results of parameter stability test are consistent with our findings indicating that relationship between series is strong in the long-run. The results are important in the way that they show the global factors are also dominant on the Turkish stock market.
Full Text Available The aim of this study is determination of relationship presence between 8 teams’ win-defeat and stock market performance. These teams are incorporate status at their stock market and their shares trade in markets. Turkish teams consist of Besiktaş, Galatasaray, Fenerbahce and Trabzonspor. Other teams were choosed among the European teams. Other 4 teams consist of AS Roma, Borussia Dortmund, Olimpique Lyon and Juventus. We determined 4 football seasons which are 2007-2011 as base. We used SPPS and practiced T test. In according to the result of test and analysis, Galatasaray is only one team having significant relationship between teams’ victory and stock performance. On the contrary of this result, Fenerbahce, Juventus, Roma and Borussia Dortmund have relationship between teams’ defeat and stock performance.
Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo
Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.
Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong
We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.
Cotti, Chad; Dunn, Richard A; Tefft, Nathan
We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier
We tested 45 indices and common stocks in the South African stock market for the possible existence of a bubble over the period from January 2003 to May 2006. A bubble is defined by a faster-than-exponential acceleration with significant log-periodic oscillations. These two traits are analyzed using different methods. Sensitivity tests show that the estimated parameters are robust. With the insight of 6 additional months of data since the analysis was performed, we observe that many of the stocks on the South African market experienced an abrupt drop at mid-June 2006, which is compatible with the predicted tc for several of the stocks, but not all. This suggests that the mini-crash that occurred around mid-June of 2006 was only a partial correction, which has resumed into a renewed bubbly acceleration bound to end some time in 2007, similarly to what happened in the US market from October 1997 to August 1998.
Yan, Yan; Wang, Lei; Liu, Maoxin; Chen, Xiaosong
The paper uses empirical data, including 42 globally main stock indices in the period 1996-2014, to systematically study the evolution of fluctuation modes and inner structures of global stock markets. The data are large in scale considering both time and space. A covariance matrix-based principle fluctuation mode analysis (PFMA) is used to explore the properties of the global stock markets. It has been ignored by previous studies that covariance matrix is more suitable than the correlation matrix to be the basis of PFMA. It is found that the principle fluctuation modes of global stock markets are in the same directions, and global stock markets are divided into three clusters, which are found to be closely related to the countries’ locations with exceptions of China, Russia and Czech Republic. A time-stable correlation network constructing method is proposed to solve the problem of high-level statistical uncertainty when the estimated periods are very short, and the complex dynamic network (CDN) is constructed to investigate the evolution of inner structures. The results show when the clusters emerge and how long the clusters exist. When the 2008 financial crisis broke out, the indices form one cluster. After these crises, only the European cluster still exists. These findings complement the previous studies, and can help investors and regulators to understand the global stock markets.
Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze dependence structure between the returns of Croatian and five European stock markets (Austrian, French, German, Italian, and the U.K.'s. We propose a copula GARCH approach, where the return series are modeled as univariate GARCH processes and the dependence structure between the return series is defined by a copula function. Four different copulas are fitted - a constant and conditional normal and symmetric Joe-Clayton (SJC copulas - and estimated by a semi-parametric method. We found that the time-varying normal copula yields the best fit for CROBEX-CAC40, CROBEX-DAX, and CROBEX-FTSE-MIB stock indices pairs, while the time-varying SJC copula is the best fit for CROBEX-ATX and CROBEX-FTSE100. Further, we found that the probability of simultaneous extreme positive and negative returns in Croatian and other European stock markets can increase to 0.77 during turbulent times. The lower and upper tail dependence dynamics between Croatian and other European stock markets is similar in pattern, differing only in scale. The basic conclusion of the research is that the dependence between the stock markets of Croatia and five major European stock markets is dynamic and can be properly captured by either a dynamic normal or symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula GARCH models.
Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management. PMID:24867071
Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.
Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.
Full Text Available Many international investors have realized that they cannot obtain profits as large, investing in mature markets as well as investing in emerging and developing countries. They want to obtain higher yields, of course assuming the extra risk, as the risk of liquidity or volatility of exchange rates, which are significantly higher than in developed markets. Studies on the BRICS economies are countless, researchers pointing that the development of these economies and their transition towards developed economies category is virtually inevitable (Nistor, 2011. In this article we propose a smooth approach on the state of the economies of the BRICS emerging countries and the stock exchanges markets. It is interesting to observe how, according to a forecast of the International Monetary Fund, in the year 2025 world supremacy from the economic point of view will belong still to the United States, but the discrepancies between the United States economy and China's economy subside until then. The same source, however, predict that by the year 2050, China's economy will bring forward the United States of America. However, should not be lost of sight the fact that China is part of the BRICS countries, with enormous development potential. As proof of those exposed earlier, sits the performance obtained from China's economy especially in times of crisis, when the vast majority of the world's economies recorded negative economic growth. Somewhat improperly said so, we were witnessing a world economic depression. The performance of China's economy is so, noteworthy, it received even in the toughest years of global financial and economic crisis, a positive value of economic growth. This also happened, within other BRICS emerging countries economies, having many similar economic meanings. With such a potential for economic growth, the economies of BRICS countries have brought into the spot light the operational stock exchanges. The interest of investors for
Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong
We investigate the information flow between industrial sectors in credit default swap and stock markets in the United States based on transfer entropy. Both markets have been studied with respect to dynamics and relations. Our approach considers the intra-structure of each financial market as well as the inter-structure between two markets through a moving window in order to scan a period from 2005 to 2012. We examine the information transfer with different k, especially k = 3, k = 5 and k = 7. Analysis indicates that the cases with k = 3 and k = 7 show the opposite trends but similar characteristics. Change in transfer entropy for intra-structure of CDS market precedes that of stock market in view of the entire time windows. Abrupt rise and fall in inter-structural information transfer between two markets are detected at the periods related to the financial crises, which can be considered as early warnings.
Nenortaite, Jovita; Simutis, Rimvydas
This paper is focused on the development of intelligent decision making model which is based on the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and swarm intelligence technologies. The proposed model is used to generate one-step forward investment decisions. The ANN are used to make the analysis of historical stock returns and to calculate one day forward possible profit, which could be get while following the model proposed decisions, concerning the purchase of the stocks. Subsequently t...
Arditi, Eli; Yechiam, Eldad; Zahavi, Gal
Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people's search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses.
It has to be read together with the first four, The Metaphysics Market: 1 Merchandizing Language as Matter C= SPIL 20, 1989), The Metaphysics Market: 2 Billing Language as Behavioural (= SPIL 21, 1990), The Metaphysics Market: 3 Selling Language as Soul ("= SPIL 22, 1990) and The Metaphysics Market: i Pushing ...
Chen, Dar-Hsin; Huang, Han-Lin
Stock transaction data typically present a time series that exhibits a somewhat confusing trend, making it difficult to issue any form of crisis warning. This study employs Fourier spectrum analysis to clearly show manic and irrational investors chasing prices. When clustering generates an enormous amount of unstable power, the result is a stock market collapsing into a danger area that can be taken as a warning signal. We thus take the Dow Jones Index as a typical stock market and employ daily data from 1994-2015. This study finds the investors' purchasing power through certain thresholds, analyses the performance characteristics of the spectrum, and denotes when a stock market is in a most serious crisis stage and in a second most serious correction stage. The result of our study indicates that the warning signal accurately measures a stock market crash that can be applicable to the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index, and Germany ADX Index and to the emerging markets of Bovespa Index (Brazil) and Shanghai Index (China). Furthermore, this study provides a quantitative reference concerning the depth of market crashes.
Makowiec, Danuta; Posiewnik, Andrzej
AIP qualitative method of discrimination of a dynamical system among stochastic noise, deterministic noise or deterministic function is applied to three stock market indices to identify similarities and discrepancies between developed and emergent markets when some expectations for extraordinary profits are present.
Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte
Full Text Available This paper assesses the existence of the size effect on the most important stock markets in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru for the period between 2002 and 2012, using the cross-section contrast methodology of the size effect in the CAPM context. Results show that there is reversed effect in some of the Latin American markets.
Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier
We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (October 2002-October 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. Based on an analysis including data up to 2003/10/28, we have predicted that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004). Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding.
Jan 24, 2012 ... and Ghana stock market. The results of the short run dynamic analysis and the evidence of cointegration mean that there are both short run and long run relationships between the macroeconomic variables and the index. In terms of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the study establishes that the Ghana.
Frimpong, Joseph Magnus; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu
This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for t...
Full Text Available This paper applies a range of metrics to test for the presence of weak form market efficiency in the Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, we test both the years prior to and following accession. The results from our tests indicate that, despite the expectations of many previous studies, even after entering the EU the stock markets of these countries still do not conform to even the loosest form of market efficiency. We improve and extend previous studies by incorporating liquidity controls, applying a wider range of methodologies and by using individual stocks rather than indices.
In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.
Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO
Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.
This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.
Full Text Available There is a general perception that whenever a Stockgoes down, traders in that stock aredoomed. This was probably true before 2001, when derivatives were not introduced in the IndianStock Markets. Nowadays, there are many strategiesavailable in the derivatives segment, whicheither make huge amounts of money for the traders whenever the market goes down, or there is Zerorisk on the downside. One such strategy in optionssegment of derivatives is Ratio spread with Calls.This strategy has Zero Risk on the downside (with chosen strike prices and entry time, and if theMarket is mildly bullish, profits can also be madeon the upside. This Research paper examines theresults of Ratio spread with Calls as applied on Nifty in 42 monthly F&O series, with the aim tocreate a Zero Downside Risk Strategy which can be easily understood by even a beginner in StockMarket.
Full Text Available Implications of market frictions in the context of serial correlations in indexes on the Central and Eastern European (CEE stock markets have been analysed. Market frictions, such as non-trading effects, bid/ask spreads, other transaction costs, etc., may be detected by direct measurement, or by indirect identification. Direct measurement of frictions is difficult as intraday trading data are unavailable in the case of most of the emerging CEE stock markets. Indirect identification may be conducted by detecting some empirical phenomena. One of them is evidence of serial correlations in indexes, the so-called the Fisher effect. We explore the problem of serial correlations in indexes on the eight CEE stock markets using data samples from each CEE market separately, as well as a "common trading window" approach, which is widely applied in the case of databases with multivariate time series. The evidence is that nonsynchronous trading effect II between markets may substantially disrupt the analysis of index returns on a domestic market. Using a synchronized database, one may erroneously conclude that the Fisher effect does not exist, although it is present. (original abstract
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Full Text Available Shari’ah stock market is also affected by many highly interrelated economic, social, political andother factor, same as the conventional stock market, the interaction between macroeconomic variablesand Shari’ah stock market creating volatility in the stock price as a response towards severalshocks. The sensitivity of Shari’ah stock market towards shocks happened related with the futureexpectation of micro and macro factor in one country which can be predict or unpredictable.There are six macroeconomic variables that used in this research; inflation, exchange rate, interestrate, dow jones index, crude oil palm price, and FED rate. Using vector error correction model(VECM, the result shows that domestic macroeconomic variables that significantly affect IndonesiaShari’ah compliance for long term, while for international macroeconomic variables the selectedvariable such as FED rate and Dow Jones Index are not significantly affected Indonesia Shari’ahcompliance both in short term and long term. Keywords: Indonesia Shari’ah compliance, Macro Economic Indicators, Impulse Response Function,Stock Price Volatility
Xi, Xian; An, Haizhong
A financial market is a complex system consisting of many interacting units. In general, due to the various types of information exchange within the industry, there is a relationship between the stocks that can reveal their clear structural characteristics. Complex network methods are powerful tools for studying the internal structure and function of the stock market, which allows us to better understand the stock market. Applying complex network methodology, a stock associated network model based on financial indicators is created. Accordingly, we set threshold value and use modularity to detect the community network, and we analyze the network structure and community cluster characteristics of different threshold situations. The study finds that the threshold value of 0.7 is the abrupt change point of the network. At the same time, as the threshold value increases, the independence of the community strengthens. This study provides a method of researching stock market based on the financial indicators, exploring the structural similarity of financial indicators of stocks. Also, it provides guidance for investment and corporate financial management.
In this paper, we present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and described qualitatively and quantitatively in terms of the classical phase transitions. When the interactions among traders become stronger and reach some critical values, a second-order phase transition and critical behavior can be observed, and a bull market phase and a bear market phase appear. When the system stays at the bull market phase, speculative bubbles occur in the stock market. For a certain range of the investment environment (the external field), multistability and hysteresis phenomena are observed. When the investment environment reaches some critical values, the rapid changes (the first-order phase transitions) in the distribution of investment attitude are caused. The phase transition from a bull market phase to a bear market phase is considered as a stock market crash. Furthermore, we estimate the parameters of the model using the actual financial data. As an example of large crashes we analyze Japan crisis (the bubble and the subsequent crash in the Japanese stock market in 1987-1992), and show that the good quality of the fits, as well as the consistency of the parameter values are obtained from Japan crisis. The results of the empirical study demonstrate that Japan crisis can be explained quite naturally by the model that bubbles and crashes have their origin in the collective crowd behavior of many interacting agents.
Jiang, J.; Ma, K.; Cai, X.
We test several non-linear characteristics of Asian stock markets, which indicates the failure of efficient market hypothesis and shows the essence of fractal of the financial markets. In addition, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to investigate the long range correlation of the volatility in the stock markets, we find that the crossover phenomena exist in the results of DFA. Further, in the region of small volatility, the scaling behavior is more complicated; in the region of large volatility, the scaling exponent is close to 0.5, which suggests the market is more efficient. All these results may indicate the possibility of characteristic multifractal scaling behaviors of the financial markets.
Cui, Ling-xiao; Long, Wen
Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is an effective method to capture the intrinsic dynamical modes of complex system. In this work, we adopt DMD method to discover the evolutionary patterns in stock market and apply it to Chinese A-share stock market. We design two strategies based on DMD algorithm. The strategy which considers only timing problem can make reliable profits in a choppy market with no prominent trend while fails to beat the benchmark moving-average strategy in bull market. After considering the spatial information from spatial-temporal coherent structure of DMD modes, we improved the trading strategy remarkably. Then the DMD strategies profitability is quantitatively evaluated by performing SPA test to correct the data-snooping effect. The results further prove that DMD algorithm can model the market patterns well in sideways market.
Cavapozzi, Danilo; Trevisan, Elisabetta; Weber, Guglielmo
In most European countries life insurance has played a key role in household portfolios, to the extent that it has often been the first asset ever purchased. In this paper we use life history data from a host of European countries to investigate the role of life insurance investment in shaping individuals' attitudes towards participation in stocks and mutual funds. We show that individuals who purchased a life insurance policy are more likely to invest in stocks and mutual funds later. On the one hand, these findings support the notion that life insurance policies play an educational role in financial investment. On the other hand, they are also consistent with behavioural models where economic agents are first concerned with avoiding unacceptable adverse scenarios by purchasing low risk investments, such as life insurance policies, and then invest in riskier assets, such as stocks and mutual funds, to obtain higher economic returns. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sulaiman D. Mohammad
Full Text Available The aim of the study is to explore the long run association among Pakistani equity market and some developed and emerging equity markets. Weekly data from the period of 2000 to 2010 was applied in this study. The result highlighted Pakistani equity market well correlated with the American equity market. The impulse response function result also illustrated that the American equity market created more instability as compare to other equity markets of the world. The portfolio managers of UK, India, Germany and China have a great opportunity to diversify their portfolio to take comparatively greater advantage from KSE.
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.
Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Gupta, Rangan
We use the economic policy uncertainty indices of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate the US and UK stock market movements. The long-run US-UK stock market correlation depends positively on US economic policy uncertainty shocks....... The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on the US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks while the UK depends significantly on both....
Full Text Available We explore the potential dependence among different Asian stock markets, using several different statistical models. Extreme return-volume dependence in Hong Kong Seng Index, Bombay Stock Exchange, Indonesia Composite Index and Bursa Malaysia has been examined by using FIGARCH-Copula and GARCH-Copula approach. We have used Gaussian, Student-t, Frank, Clayton, Survival Clayton and Gumbel copulas. Based on Akaike information criterion (AIC, we found that using FIGARCH model for return series improves the results of copula parameter estimation. According to our finding, Hong Kong and Indian stock indices showed weak upper tail dependence between return and volume. Further, we have found that the extremely low returns for Malaysia and Indonesia stock indices are followed by high volumes, providing evidence of leverage effect. Our investigation shows that Malaysia and Indonesia stock indices are sensitive to bad news rather than good news.
Magdalena Daniela NEMES
Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the market impact of hidden orders (orders that reflect the true intention of buying and selling) that matches the empirically measured result and that reproduces some of the non-trivial and universal properties of stock returns (returns are percent changes in stock price). The theory is based on a simple premise, that the stock market can be modeled in a mechanical way - as a device that translates order flow into an uncorrelated price stream. Given that order flow is highly autocorrelated, this premise requires that market impact (1) depends on past order flow and (2) is asymmetric for buying and selling. I derive the specific form for the dependence in (1) by assuming that current liquidity responds to information about all currently active hidden orders (liquidity is a measure of the price response to a transaction of a given size). This produces an equation that suggests market impact should scale logarithmically with total order size. Using data from the London Stock Exchange I empirically measure market impact and show that the result matches the theory. Also using empirical data, I qualitatively specify the asymmetry of (2). Putting all results together, I form a model for market impact that reproduces three universal properties of stock returns - that returns are uncorrelated, that returns are distributed with a power law tail, and that the magnitude of returns is highly autocorrelated (also known as clustered volatility).
Λαμπούσης, Αθανάσιος Ι.
This paper examines the impact of the return interval on the beta estimate known as the “interval effect” which causes securities that are thinly traded to give biased OLS beta estimates. The present study covers a 5-year period, from January 2002 through to December 2006, using three different return intervals: daily, weekly and monthly data for 60 continuously listed thinly-traded stocks on the main market of the Athens Stock Exchange. Results generally support findings fr...
Full Text Available This paper investigates the existence of two anomalies in African stock returns: the month of the year and the pre-holiday effects, and their implications for stock market efficiency. We extend the traditional approach to modelling anomalies and examine the mean and variance of returns. We document high and significant returns in days preceding a holiday in South Africa. Our results indicate that the month of the year effect is prevalent in African stock returns. However, we argue that, owing to illiquidity and round trip transactions costs, the anomalies uncovered do not necessarily violate the no-arbitrage condition.
Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene
Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255
Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene
Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.
Md Zobaer Hasan
Full Text Available The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation.
Hasan, Md Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Mustafa, Adli; Baten, Md Azizul
The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation.
Alenoghena Osi Raymond
Full Text Available The study empirically investigates the impact of globalization on the performance of the Nigerian Stock market. The study seeks the verification of the existence of a linking mechanism between globalization through trade openness, net inflow of capital, participation in international capital market and financial development on Stock Market performance over the period of 1981 to 2011. The methodology adopted examines the stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using the Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat test. The weighted least squares regression method was employed to ascertain the different level of impacts on the above subject matter. The findings were reinforced by the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship, as evidenced by the cointegrating equation of the VECM. The Model ascertained that globalization variables actually positively impacted on stock market performance. However, the findings reveal that while net capital inflows and participation in international capital market have greater impact on the Nigerian Stock market performance during the period under review. Accordingly, it is advised that in formulating foreign policy, policy makers should take strategic views on the international economy and make new creative policies that will foster economic integration between Nigeria and its existing trade allies. These creative policies will also assist to create avenues for the making new trade agreements with other nations of the world, which hitherto were not trade partners with Nigeria.
Full Text Available Current study examines the relationship of twin deficit with stock market for Pakistan from 1992 to 2012.The results of ADF test shows that variables are not integrate at same order; hence, ARDL approach is used to examine the long run relationship among variables. The result of bound test rejects the null hypothesis of no Cointegration among variables and long run model shows positive relationship of twin deficit for Pakistan. In short run the results remain same and disequilibrium in short run is adjusted rapidly back towards long run. The positive and significant relation of twin deficit with stock market for Pakistan is due to high development expenditures, increasing debt level, and incoming of foreign aid and assistance. Government must adopt solid tactic to cut down its expenditures and utilized scare resources to reduce twin deficit, as stock market of Pakistan is highly volatile.
This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination of the d......This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...
Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos; Vortelinos, Dimitrios I.; Saha, Shrabani
This paper investigates the properties of realized volatility and correlation series in the Indian stock market by employing daily data converting to monthly frequency of five different stock indices from January 2, 2006 to November 30, 2014. Using non-parametric estimation technique the properties examined include normality, long-memory, asymmetries, jumps, and heterogeneity. The realized volatility is a useful technique which provides a relatively accurate measure of volatility based on the actual variance which is beneficial for asset management in particular for non-speculative funds. The results show that realized volatility and correlation series are not normally distributed, with some evidence of persistence. Asymmetries are also evident in both volatilities and correlations. Both jumps and heterogeneity properties are significant; whereas, the former is more significant than the latter. The findings show that properties of volatilities and correlations in Indian stock market have similarities as that show in the stock markets in developed countries such as the stock market in the United States which is more prevalent for speculative business traders.
Full Text Available Stock market analysis is one of the biggest areas of interest for text mining. Many researchers proposed different approaches that use text information for predicting the movement of stock market indices. Many of these approaches focus either on maximising the predictive accuracy of the model or on devising alternative methods for model evaluation. In this paper, we propose a more descriptive approach focusing on the models themselves, trying to identify the individual words in the text that most affect the movement of stock market indices. We use data from two sources (for the past eight years: the daily data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (‘open’ and ‘close’ values for each trading day and the headlines of the most voted 25 news on the Reddit World News Channel for the previous ‘trading days.’ By applying machine learning algorithms on these data and analysing individual words that appear in the final predictive models, we find that the words gay, propaganda and massacre are typically associated with a daily increase of the stock index, while the word IRAN mostly coincide with its decrease. While this work presents a first step towards qualitative analysis of stock market models, there is still plenty of room for improvements.
Full Text Available The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index is not affected by the ratio of government deficits or debt to GDP and is negatively influenced by the money market rate. The stock index and the ratio of M3 to GDP show a quadratic relationship with a critical value of 46.03%, suggesting that they have a positive relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is less than 46.03% and a negative relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is greater than 46.03%. Furthermore, Poland’s stock index is positively associated with industrial production and stock market performance in Germany and the U.S. and negatively affected by the nominal effective exchange rate and the inflation rate.
David G. McMillan
Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.
Full Text Available Predicting financial market changes is an important issue in time series analysis, receiving an increasing attention in last two decades. The combined prediction model, based on artificial neural networks (ANNs with principal component analysis (PCA for financial time series forecasting is presented in this work. In the modeling step, technical analysis has been conducted to select technical indicators. Then PCA approach was applied to extract the principal components from the variables for the training step. Finally, the ANN-based model called NARX was used to train the data and perform the time series forecast. TAL1T stock of Nasdaq OMX Baltic stock exchange was used as a case study. The mean square error (MSE measure was used to evaluate the performances of proposed model. The experimental results lead to the conclusion that the proposed model can be successfully used as an alternative method to standard statistical techniques for financial time series forecasting.
Full Text Available The prediction of stock market’s trend has become a challenging task for a long time, which is affected by a variety of deterministic and stochastic factors. In this paper, a biclustering algorithm is introduced to find the local patterns in the quantized historical data. The local patterns obtained are regarded as the trading rules. Then the trading rules are applied in the short term prediction of the stock price, combined with the minimum-error-rate classification of the Bayes decision theory under the assumption of multivariate normal probability model. In addition, this paper also makes use of the idea of the stream mining to weaken the impact of historical data on the model and update the trading rules dynamically. The experiment is implemented on real datasets and the results prove the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet
There is a rich array of evidence that suggests that changes in sleeping patterns affect an individual's decision-making processes. A nationwide sleeping-pattern change happens twice a year when the Daylight Saving Time (DST) change occurs. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi argued in 2000 that a DST change lowers stock market returns. This study presents evidence that DST changes affect the relationship between stock market return and volatility. Empirical evidence suggests that the positive relationship between return and volatility becomes negative on the Mondays following DST changes.
Salina H. Kassim
This study aims to determine the impact of the 2007 global financial crisis on the integration of the Islamic stock markets. Seven Islamic stock markets are selected based on the countriesâ€™ level of development and geographical factors. The period of analysis is divided into the pre-crisis period (9 January 2005 to 22 July 2007) and the crisis period (29 July 2007 to 10 January 2010). The methodology of this study relies on the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag approach and the multi-variate ...
Long, Wen; Guan, Lijing; Shen, Jiangjian; Song, Linqiu; Cui, Lingxiao
This paper introduces a new complex network to describe the volatility transmission mechanisms in stock market. The network can not only endogenize stock market's volatility but also figure out the direction of volatility spillover. In this model, we first use BEKK-GARCH to estimate the volatility spillover effects among Chinese 18 industry sectors. Then, based on the ARCH coefficients and GARCH coefficients, the directional shock networks and variance networks in different stages are constructed separately. We find that the spillover effects and network structures changes in different stages. The results of the topological stability test demonstrate that the connectivity of networks becomes more fragile to selective attacks than stochastic attacks.
DattaChaudhuri, Tamal; Ghosh, Indranil
Volatility in stock markets has been extensively studied in the applied finance literature. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network models based on various back propagation algorithms have been constructed to predict volatility in the Indian stock market through volatility of NIFTY returns and volatility of gold returns. This model considers India VIX, CBOE VIX, volatility of crude oil returns (CRUDESDR), volatility of DJIA returns (DJIASDR), volatility of DAX returns (DAXSDR), volatility of Hang Seng returns (HANGSDR) and volatility of Nikkei returns (NIKKEISDR) as predictor variables. Three sets of experiments have been performed over three time periods to judge the effectiveness of the approach.
In an endeavour to improve the livestock production and particularly the marketing of livestock in the Northern Communal Areas of Namibia, this study analyses the perception of livestock farmers in this regard. The low off-take percentage is the most serious production constraint, but marketing, although a constraint, is not ...
Do the massive amounts of social and professionally curated data on the Internet contain useful sentiment about the market that "big data machines" can extract systematically? If so, what are the important challenges in creating economic value from these diffuse sources? In this commentary, I delve into these questions and frame the challenges involved using recent market developments as an illustrative backdrop.
Aabo, Tom; Brodin, Danielle
This study examines the sensitivity of detected exchange rate exposures at the firm specific level to changes in methodological choices using a traditional two factor stock market approach for exposure quantification. We primarily focus on two methodological choices: the choice of market index an...... of the study are important because corporate managers, stock analysts and stock pickers are primarily interested in the sensitivity - and thus reliability - of detected exchange rate exposures for a specific firm rather than for an industry or a country as a whole.......This study examines the sensitivity of detected exchange rate exposures at the firm specific level to changes in methodological choices using a traditional two factor stock market approach for exposure quantification. We primarily focus on two methodological choices: the choice of market index...... and the choice of observation frequency. We investigate to which extent the detected exchange rate exposures for a given firm can be confirmed when the choice of market index and/or the choice of observation frequency are changed. Applying our sensitivity analysis to Scandinavian non-financial firms, we...
Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.
Using a phenomenological approach, we analyse the formation and the propagation of the patterns (or ‘dissipative structures’) in the stock market, the spatial coordinate being the bid-offer spread y, as a function of which the spectrum φ of deals is modelled. The stock market will be considered a distributed active medium that is a set of active elements (the brokers) interacting with others through deals (typically a diffusion process). The physical model used is the reaction-diffusion model. The reactive part of the reaction-diffusion equation is developed from a hot-spot mechanism, with a characteristic jump when φ passes the critical value φc. Solving the stationary equation according to the Dirichlet boundary conditions, we find the ‘hot deals’ regions, meaning regions of speculative transactions which can be considered ‘dissipation’ as they do not contribute to the gross national product. The time propagation of these patterns in the one-dimensional space considered could explain the evolution of markets towards speculative bubbles. These are frequently met in the frame of emerging stock markets. Financial data, which illustrate the physical model refer to Romania's stock market, Bucharest S.E.
Kim, Min Jae; Kim, Sehyun; Jo, Yong Hwan; Kim, Soo Yong
Understanding the dependence structure between the commodity and stock markets is a crucial issue in constructing a portfolio. It can also help us to discover new opportunities to implement spread trading using multiple assets classified in the two different markets. This study analyzed the dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets using the random matrix theory technique and network analysis. Our results show that the stock and commodity markets must be handled as completely separated asset classes except for the oil and gold markets, so the performance enhancement of the mean-variance portfolio is significant as expected. In light of the fact that WTI 1 month futures and four oil-related stocks are strongly correlated, they were selected as basic ingredients to complement the multi-spread convergence trading strategy using a machine learning technique called the AdaBoost algorithm. The performance of this strategy for non-myopic investors, who can endure short-term loss, can be enhanced significantly on a risk measurement basis.
Daniel Reed Bergmann
Full Text Available ABSTRACT The Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC, MXEU (European Union and MXUS (United States. This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.
Full Text Available The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop before (after the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.
Lunde, Asger; Timmermann, Allan
This article studies time series dependence in the direction of stock prices by modeling the (instantaneous) probability that a bull or bear market terminates as a function of its age and a set of underlying state variables, such as interest rates. A random walk model is rejected both for bull...... and bear markets. Although it . ts the data better, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is also found to be inconsistent with the very long bull markets observed in the data. The strongest effect of increasing interest rates is found to be a lower bear market hazard rate...
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RAUN, ALO; SAARESTE, ANDRUS
THIS TEXT COMPRISES A SURVEY OF THE ESTONIAN LANGUAGE, WHICH IS GROUPED HERE WITH LIVONIAN, VOTIC, AND A PART OF WESTERN FINNISH, TO FORM THE SOUTHWESTERN BRANCH OF THE FINNIC (OR BALTO-FINNIC) LANGUAGES. THE AUTHORS' CLASSIFICATIONS AND A HISTORY OF THE STUDIES WHICH HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT IN ESTONIAN ARE PRESENTED, FOLLOWED BY A PRESENTATION OF…
Full Text Available For the presence of non-normal distribution characteristics in the financial assets returns, the model of AR(1-GJR(1,1 is used to characterize the marginal distribution of the style assets in China stock market. The Copula function is introduced to analyze the dependency structure between the six style assets, combined with the marginal distributed residual sequences. And the joint return distribution of the style portfolios is simulated, combined with extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation method. Then the market risks (VaR and CVaR of the style portfolios in China stock markets are obtained. The results of the study show that the generalized Pareto distribution Model can well fit the non-normal distribution characteristics such as peak and fat tail in the style assets returns.
Full Text Available How do prior outcomes affect the risk choice? Research on this can help people to understand investors’ dynamic decisions in financial market. This paper puts forward a new value function. By analyzing the new value function, we find that the prior gains and losses have an impact on the form of value function and the current investors’ risk attitude. Then the paper takes the behavior of the whole stock market as the research object, adopts aggregative index number of 14 representative stocks around the world as samples, and establishes a TVRA-GARCH-M model to investigate the influences of prior gains and losses on the current risk attitude. The empirical study indicates that, at the whole market level, prior gains increase people’s current willingness to take risk assert; that is to say, the house money effect exists in the market, while people are more risk aversion following prior losses.
Grudziecki, M.; Gnatowska, E.; Karpio, K.; Orłowski, A.; Załuska-Kotur, M.
A method called investment horizon approach was successfully used to analyze stock markets of many different countries. Here we apply a version of this method to study characteristics of the Polish Pioneer mutual funds. We decided to analyze Pioneer because of its longest involvement in investing on the Polish market. Moreover, it apparently manages the biggest amount of money among all similar institutions in Poland. We compare various types of Pioneer mutual funds, characterized by different financial instruments they invest in. Previously, investment horizon approach produced different characteristics of emerging markets as opposed to mature ones, providing a possible way to quantify stock market maturity. Here we generalize the above mentioned results for mutual funds of various types.