Motives of terrorist acts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krstić Marko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Terrorism is a relatively new phenomenon, and data on terrorist motivations and psychological profiles of terrorists are fairly scarce and limited. In theory, there is a large number of quantitative analyses of collective violence, murder, and crime, however, none of these can be identified with terrorism. Most current studies do not consider a great heterogeneity of terrorists, and numerous practical, conceptual, and psychological barriers slow down the science of learning about terrorism. Psychology, as a science of behavior, certainly makes a great contribution to the study of terrorism as a very complex phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to analyze and synthesize social and psychological determinants which contribute to the development of terrorist motives, and to elaborate on those facts which have been discussed in scientific and professional literature so far.

INTERNATIONALLY LEGAL MEASURES TO COMBAT TERRORIST FINANCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuniarti Yuniarti

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Following the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11th, 2001, it was discovered that money laundering was a significant source of finance for terrorists. Although, the amount of money that involve is not as involve as in drug and gun trafficking, terrorist financing had been the most important substance to be monitor. Further, various legal measures have been taken internationally in order to combat terrorist financing. This research analyses the legal measures that have been taken internationally and at EU level to combat terrorist financing. Key words: Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing, International Legal measures, EU.

Waste Management Policy Framework to Mitigate Terrorist Intrusion Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redus, Kenneth S.

2003-01-01

A policy-directed framework is developed to support US Department of Energy (DOE) counterterrorism efforts, specifically terrorist intrusion activities that affect of Environmental Management (EM) programs. The framework is called the Security Effectiveness and Resource Allocation Definition Forecasting and Control System (SERAD-FACS). Use of SERAD-FACS allows trade-offs between resources, technologies, risk, and Research and Development (R and D) efforts to mitigate such intrusion attempts. Core to SERAD-FACS is (1) the understanding the perspectives and time horizons of key decisionmakers and organizations, (2) a determination of site vulnerabilities and accessibilities, and (3) quantifying the measures that describe the risk associated with a compromise of EM assets. The innovative utility of SERAD-FACS is illustrated for three integrated waste management and security strategies. EM program risks, time delays, and security for effectiveness are examined to demonstrate the significant cost and schedule impact terrorist activities can have on cleanup efforts in the DOE complex

Terrorist threats of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jozsef Solymosi; Jozser Ronaky; Zoltan Levai; Arpad Vincze; Laszlo Foldi

2004-01-01

More than one year has passed since the terrible terrorist attacks against the United States. The tragic event fundamentally restructured our security policy approach and made requirements of countering terrorism a top priority of the 21st century. In one year a lot of studies were published and the majority of them analyses primarily the beginnings of terrorism then focus on the interrelations of causes and consequences of the attacks against the WTC. In most of the cases the authors can only put their questions most of which have remained unanswered to date. Meanwhile, in a short while after the attacks the secret assessments of threat levels of potential targets and areas were also prepared. One of the high priority fields is the issue of nuclear, biological, and chemical security, in short NBC-security. Here and now we focus on component N, that is the assessment techniques of nuclear security in short, without aiming at completeness. Our definite objective is to make non-expert readers understand - and present a concrete example as it is done in risk analysis - the real danger-level of nuclear facilities and especially the terrorist threat. Our objective is not to give tips to terrorists but to provide them with deterring arguments and at the same time calm worried people. In our communique we give an overview of international practice of nuclear antiterrorism and of preventive nuclear protection in Hungary. (author)

`Googling' Terrorists: Are Northern Irish Terrorists Visible on Internet Search Engines?

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, P.

In this chapter, the analysis suggests that Northern Irish terrorists are not visible on Web search engines when net users employ conventional Internet search techniques. Editors of mass media organisations traditionally have had the ability to decide whether a terrorist atrocity is `newsworthy,' controlling the `oxygen' supply that sustains all forms of terrorism. This process, also known as `gatekeeping,' is often influenced by the norms of social responsibility, or alternatively, with regard to the interests of the advertisers and corporate sponsors that sustain mass media organisations. The analysis presented in this chapter suggests that Internet search engines can also be characterised as `gatekeepers,' albeit without the ability to shape the content of Websites before it reaches net users. Instead, Internet search engines give priority retrieval to certain Websites within their directory, pointing net users towards these Websites rather than others on the Internet. Net users are more likely to click on links to the more `visible' Websites on Internet search engine directories, these sites invariably being the highest `ranked' in response to a particular search query. A number of factors including the design of the Website and the number of links to external sites determine the `visibility' of a Website on Internet search engines. The study suggests that Northern Irish terrorists and their sympathisers are unlikely to achieve a greater degree of `visibility' online than they enjoy in the conventional mass media through the perpetration of atrocities. Although these groups may have a greater degree of freedom on the Internet to publicise their ideologies, they are still likely to be speaking to the converted or members of the press. Although it is easier to locate Northern Irish terrorist organisations on Internet search engines by linking in via ideology, ideological description searches, such as `Irish Republican' and `Ulster Loyalist,' are more likely to

VULNERABILITIES, TERRORIST AND BIOTERRORIST THREATS AND RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorel ORDEANUL

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The contemporary society has been, is and will probably be dominated "urbi et orbi " (everywhere and for everybody by conflicts expressed through violence, social confrontations, permissiveness, authority collapse, collapse of moral norms. Paradoxically, although it is spoken and written much about terrorism and terrorists, there is still no complete and accepted definition of these terms, and the legal classification is approximate. The analysis of threats is an extremely important decisional asset when setting up plans of direct protection or objective security strategies or institutions suitable to become targets of violent actions, but today's intelligence community has not yet established a clear set of procedures and principles that constitute the expert main frame for a comprehensive analysis of threats and vulnerabilities.

Licensing issues in the context of terrorist attacks on nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Danwitz, T. von

2002-01-01

The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in September 2001 has prompted enhanced nuclear risk awareness among the German population. But in the current public debate about the safety of nuclear power plants in Germany in times of new dimensions of danger, aspects such as the role of the constitutional law, the German Atomic Energy Act, and the regulatory system governing nuclear power plant licensing in the context of protection and safety have not been addressed. The author therefore discusses the German nuclear power plant licensing law and administrative regime, elaborating on the significance attributed in those bodies of law to risks like terrorist attacks on nuclear power plants. (orig./CB) [de

The Decision Calculus of Terrorist Leaders

OpenAIRE

J. Tyson Chatagnier; Alex Mintz; Yair Samban

2012-01-01

This article contributes to the literature on terrorist group decision-making by introducing a new procedure, Applied Decision Analysis, in an attempt to understand how leaders of terrorist organizations make decisions. We examine twenty-three decisions taken by leaders of three terrorist organizations: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hizballah. We also demonstrate the use of the Applied Decision Analysis procedure to uncover the "Decision DNA" or “decision code” of leaders of such organizat...

Malevolent Creativity in Terrorist Organizations

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, Paul; Horgan, John; Hunter, Samuel T.; Cushenbery, Lily D.

2013-01-01

Terrorist organizations are both imitative and innovative in character. While the drivers of imitation have been extensively modeled using concepts such as contagion and diffusion, creativity and innovation remain relatively underdeveloped ideas in the context of terrorist behavior. This article seeks to redress this deficiency by presenting a…

Combatting the Terrorist Threat.

Science.gov (United States)

1985-05-22

have supplied many terrorist groups with plastique and other explosives to build bombs. 3 Using these explosives they have produced vehicle bombs which...deceptive, if not dangerously naive.1 5 State Supported Terrorism State supported terrorism is not a new concept , however, it has only recently been...terrorist incidents. The product of that study was the tri-level US anti- terrorism program concept . 3 The program structure is shown in Figure 11. President

Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shull, A. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Norman Paterson School of International Affairs]|[Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Law

2006-03-15

A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs.

Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.

2006-01-01

A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs

Can a Copycat Effect be Observed in Terrorist Suicide Attacks?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Farnham

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore how a copycat effect – established within the field of suicide studies – may manifest itself in terrorist suicide attacks, and takes an exploratory approach in evaluating the prospect of incorporating open-data resources in future counter-terrorism research. This paper explores a possible ‘copycat effect’ in cases of suicide terrorism, which entails a perpetrator being inspired by a preceding attack to carry out a similar attack not long after the original. In the wake of mounting risks of lone wolf terrorist attacks today and due to the general difficulties faced in preventing such attacks, in this paper we explore a potential area of future prevention in media reporting, security and anti-terrorism policies today. Using the START Global Terrorism Database (GTD, this paper investigates terrorist suicide-attack clusters and analyses the relationship between attacks found within the same cluster. Using a mixed-method approach, our analyses did not uncover clear evidence supporting a copycat effect among the studied attacks. These and other findings have numerous policy and future research implications.

Detecting Hidden Hierarchy of Non Hierarchical Terrorist Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Memon, Nasrullah

measures (and combinations of them) to identify key players (important nodes) in terrorist networks. Our recently introduced techniques and algorithms (which are also implemented in the investigative data mining toolkit known as iMiner) will be particularly useful for law enforcement agencies that need...... to analyze terrorist networks and prioritize their targets. Applying recently introduced mathematical methods for constructing the hidden hierarchy of "nonhierarchical" terrorist networks; we present case studies of the terrorist attacks occurred / planned in the past, in order to identify hidden hierarchy...

Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

2013-01-01

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

31 CFR 595.311 - Specially designated terrorist.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

...) OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY TERRORISM SANCTIONS REGULATIONS General Definitions § 595.311 Specially designated terrorist. (a) The term specially designated terrorist means: (1...

31 CFR 597.309 - Foreign terrorist organization.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... REGULATIONS General Definitions § 597.309 Foreign terrorist organization. The term foreign terrorist... respect to which the Secretary of State has notified Congress of the intention to designate as a foreign...

Understanding Terrorist Ideology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cragin, Kim

2007-01-01

This variation, by its very nature, makes it somewhat difficult to identify overarching patterns in how terrorist ideologies might motivate individuals and sympathetic communities on a global level...

The Internet information infrastructure: Terrorist tool or architecture for information defense?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kadner, S.; Turpen, E. [Aquila Technologies Group, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rees, B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1998-12-01

The Internet is a culmination of information age technologies and an agent of change. As with any infrastructure, dependency upon the so-called global information infrastructure creates vulnerabilities. Moreover, unlike physical infrastructures, the Internet is a multi-use technology. While information technologies, such as the Internet, can be utilized as a tool of terror, these same technologies can facilitate the implementation of solutions to mitigate the threat. In this vein, this paper analyzes the multifaceted nature of the Internet information infrastructure and argues that policymakers should concentrate on the solutions it provides rather than the vulnerabilities it creates. Minimizing risks and realizing possibilities in the information age will require institutional activities that translate, exploit and convert information technologies into positive solutions. What follows is a discussion of the Internet information infrastructure as it relates to increasing vulnerabilities and positive potential. The following four applications of the Internet will be addressed: as the infrastructure for information competence; as a terrorist tool; as the terrorist`s target; and as an architecture for rapid response.

Anticipating Terrorist Safe Havens from Instability Induced Conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Robert; Marvin, Brett

This chapter presents recent methods developed at the Center for Army Analysis to classify patterns of nation-state instability that lead to conflict. The ungoverned areas endemic to failed nation-states provide terrorist organizations with safe havens from which to plan and execute terrorist attacks. Identification of those states at risk for instability induced conflict should help to facilitate effective counter terrorism policy planning efforts. Nation-states that experience instability induced conflict are similar in that they share common instability factors that make them susceptible to experiencing conflict. We utilize standard pattern classification algorithms to identify these patterns. First, we identify features (political, military, economic and social) that capture the instability of a nation-state. Second, we forecast the future levels of these features for each nation-state. Third, we classify each future state’s conflict potential based upon the conflict level of those states in the past most similar to the future state.

Terrorist Financing: The 9/11 Commission Recommendation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Weiss, Martin A

2005-01-01

.... The Commission recommended that the U.S. government shift the focus of its efforts to counter terrorist financing from a strategy based on seizing terrorist assets to a strategy based on exploiting intelligence gathered from financial investigations...

Estimation of terrorist attack resistibility of dual-purpose cask TP-117 with DU (depleted uranium) gamma shield

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alekseev, O.G.; Matveev, V.Z.; Morenko, A.I.; Il'kaev, R.I.; Shapovalov, V.I.

2004-01-01

Report is devoted to numerical research of dual-purpose unified cask (used for SFA transportation and storage) resistance to terrorist attacks. High resistance of dual-purpose unified cask has been achieved due to the unique design-technological solutions and implementation of depleted uranium in cask construction. In suggested variant of construction depleted uranium fulfils functions of shielding and constructional material. It is used both in metallic and cermet form (basing on steel and depleted uranium dioxide). Implementation of depleted uranium in cask construction allows maximal load in existing overall dimensions of the cask. At the same time: 1) all safety requirements (IAEA) are met, 2) dual-purpose cask with SFA has high resistance to terrorist attacks

Estimation of terrorist attack resistibility of dual-purpose cask TP-117 with DU (depleted uranium) gamma shield

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alekseev, O.G.; Matveev, V.Z.; Morenko, A.I.; Il' kaev, R.I.; Shapovalov, V.I. [Russian Federal Nuclear Center - All-Russian Research Inst. of Experimental Physics, Sarov (Russian Federation)

2004-07-01

Report is devoted to numerical research of dual-purpose unified cask (used for SFA transportation and storage) resistance to terrorist attacks. High resistance of dual-purpose unified cask has been achieved due to the unique design-technological solutions and implementation of depleted uranium in cask construction. In suggested variant of construction depleted uranium fulfils functions of shielding and constructional material. It is used both in metallic and cermet form (basing on steel and depleted uranium dioxide). Implementation of depleted uranium in cask construction allows maximal load in existing overall dimensions of the cask. At the same time: 1) all safety requirements (IAEA) are met, 2) dual-purpose cask with SFA has high resistance to terrorist attacks.

Real Time Big Data Analytics for Predicting Terrorist Incidents

Science.gov (United States)

Toure, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

Terrorism is a complex and evolving phenomenon. In the past few decades, we have witnessed an increase in the number of terrorist incidents in the world. The security and stability of many countries is threatened by terrorist groups. Perpetrators now use sophisticated weapons and the attacks are more and more lethal. Currently, terrorist incidents…

Immigration: Terrorist Grounds for Exclusion and Removal Aliens

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Garcia, Michael J; Wasem, Ruth E

2008-01-01

...., legal permanent residents) or temporarily as nonimmigrants. Notably, any alien who engages in terrorist activity, or is a representative or member of a designated foreign terrorist organization, is generally inadmissible...

Defender's Edge: Utilizing Intelligent Agent Technology to Anticipate Terrorist Acts

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Scheiber, Lane

2003-01-01

...), to the problem of anticipating terrorist acts. Two areas in which IAs could play a significant role are in the development and maintenance of a real-time picture of terrorist activity, and in predicting potential occurrences of terrorist acts...

Will it Ever be Possible to Profile the Terrorist?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan A Rae

2012-09-01

Full Text Available 'This paper critiques the claim that terrorists can be profiled – that is to say that terrorists possess distinguishable attributes that can be conceivably identified by an observer. In doing so, the most prominent profiling parameters - racial, gender, age, pathological, psychological and socioeconomic – are investigated. The above approaches are found to have little to no applied value in identifying terrorists from a societal population. The dominant criticisms of these methods emphasise their crude reductionism, an absence of internal and external validity, and their lack of practical application. Current evidence indicates that the profiling of terrorists is a futile venture.'

Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model are developed for modeling the hybrid relational structure and complex operational processes, respectively. To intuitively elucidate this method, the agent based modeling is used to simulate the terrorist network and test the performance in diverse scenarios. Based on the experimental results, we show how the changes of operational environments affect the development of terrorist organization in terms of its recovery and capacity to perform future tasks. The potential strategies are also discussed, which can be used to restrain the activities of terrorists.

Psychometric and demographic predictors of the perceived risk of terrorist threats and the willingness to pay for terrorism risk management programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumpower, Jeryl L; Shi, Liu; Stoutenborough, James W; Vedlitz, Arnold

2013-10-01

A 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults assessed perceptions of terrorism and homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, level of understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisoned water supply; explosion of a small nuclear device in a major U.S. city; an airplane attack similar to 9/11; and explosion of a bomb in a building, train, subway, or highway. Respondents rated perceived risk and willingness to pay (WTP) for dealing with each threat. Demographic, attitudinal, and party affiliation data were collected. Respondents rated bomb as highest in perceived risk but gave the highest WTP ratings to nuclear device. For both perceived risk and WTP, psychometric variables were far stronger predictors than were demographic ones. OLS regression analyses using both types of variables to predict perceived risk found only two significant demographic predictors for any threat--Democrat (a negative predictor for bomb) and white male (a significant positive predictor for airline attack). In contrast, among psychometric variables, severity, number affected, and likelihood were predictors of all four threats and level of understanding was a predictor for one. For WTP, education was a negative predictor for three threats; no other demographic variables were significant predictors for any threat. Among psychometric variables, perceived risk and number affected were positive predictors of WTP for all four threats; severity and likelihood were predictors for three; level of understanding was a significant predictor for two. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Survival of the Fittest: Why Terrorist Groups Endure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph K. Young

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Why do terrorist groups endure? This question is relevant to scholars and policy makers alike. In the past, this issue was not been addressed in a systematic fashion. Recent work investigates this question using data on transnational groups and finds that factors associated with the home country can influence the duration the group endures. Applying the theory of outbidding to terrorist group survival, we argue that strategic competition among groups predicts group duration. Using the Global Terrorism Database, we develop a dataset using the terrorist group as the unit of analysis to model the duration of group activity and thus include the largest sample of groups yet. Controlling for previous explanations of both group duration and terrorism, we find a robust effect for the impact that group competition has on terrorist group survival.

On Deceiving Terrorists

Science.gov (United States)

2001-12-01

developed. By way of contrast, the last two categories—theoretical works and doctrine—attempt to transcend the contextual limits of the first two... Busqueda , the Colombian National Police “Search Bloc,” which was tasked with apprehending Escobar (Bowden, 2001). Deceiving Terrorists Chain Network

Terrorists and Suicide Attacks

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cronin, Audrey K

2003-01-01

Suicide attacks by terrorist organizations have become more prevalent globally, and assessing the threat of suicide attacks against the United States and its interests at home and abroad has therefore...

Plutonium - how great is the terrorist threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.L.

1977-01-01

The terrorists' problems in stealing the plutonium and fabricating the device are measured against the likely effects of its explosion. Alternatives are discussed and it is concluded that there are many easier ways of killing a large number of people. It is considered impossible to guard absolutely against all possible terrorist threats of mass murder. (U.K.)

On Terrorists and Terrorism

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kellen, Konrad

1982-01-01

...; it examines their socioeconomic backgrounds and their driving ideologies; and it probes into elements that may aid the cohesion of terrorist groups, as well as at elements that drive toward disintegration...

Will it ever be possible to profile the terrorist?

OpenAIRE

Rae, Jonathan A.

2012-01-01

This paper critiques the claim that terrorists can be profiled – that is to say that terrorists possess distinguishable attributes that can be conceivably identified by an observer. In doing so, the most prominent profiling parameters - racial, gender, age, pathological, psychological and socioeconomic – are investigated. The above approaches are found to have little to no applied value in identifying terrorists from a societal population. The dominant criticisms of these methods emphasise th...

Computing Optimal Mixed Strategies for Terrorist Plot Detection Games with the Consideration of Information Leakage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li MingChu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The terrorist’s coordinated attack is becoming an increasing threat to western countries. By monitoring potential terrorists, security agencies are able to detect and destroy terrorist plots at their planning stage. Therefore, an optimal monitoring strategy for the domestic security agency becomes necessary. However, previous study about monitoring strategy generation fails to consider the information leakage, due to hackers and insider threat. Such leakage events may lead to failure of watching potential terrorists and destroying the plot, and cause a huge risk to public security. This paper makes two major contributions. Firstly, we develop a new Stackelberg game model for the security agency to generate optimal monitoring strategy with the consideration of information leakage. Secondly, we provide a double-oracle framework DO-TPDIL for calculation effectively. The experimental result shows that our approach can obtain robust strategies against information leakage with high feasibility and efficiency.

Immigration: Terrorist Grounds for Exclusion and Removal of Aliens

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Garcia, Michael J; Wasem, Ruth E

2007-01-01

...., legal permanent residents) or temporarily as nonimmigrants. Notably, any alien who engages in terrorist activity, or is a representative or member of a designated foreign terrorist organization, is generally inadmissible...

Securing public transportation systems an integrated decision analysis framework for the prevention of terrorist attacks as example

CERN Document Server

Brauner, Florian

2017-01-01

Florian Brauner addresses the risk reduction effects of security measures (SecMe) as well as economic and social effects using terrorist threats in public transportation as use case. SecMe increase the level of security but cause interferences and restrictions for customers (e.g. privacy). This study identifies the interferences and analyzes the acceptance with an empirical survey of customers. A composite indicator for the acceptance of different SecMe is developed and integrated into a risk management framework for multi-criteria decision analysis achieving the right balance of risk reduction, costs, and social acceptance. Contents Assessment of Security Measures for Risk Management Measurement of Objective Effectiveness of Security Measures Against Terrorist Attacks Determination of Subjective Effects of Security Measures (Customer Acceptance Analysis) Cost Analysis of Security Measures Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems Target Groups Scientists with Interest in Civil Security Research Providers and S...

Bombing alone: tracing the motivations and antecedent behaviors of lone-actor terrorists,.

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, Paul; Horgan, John; Deckert, Paige

2014-03-01

This article analyzes the sociodemographic network characteristics and antecedent behaviors of 119 lone-actor terrorists. This marks a departure from existing analyses by largely focusing upon behavioral aspects of each offender. This article also examines whether lone-actor terrorists differ based on their ideologies or network connectivity. The analysis leads to seven conclusions. There was no uniform profile identified. In the time leading up to most lone-actor terrorist events, other people generally knew about the offender's grievance, extremist ideology, views, and/or intent to engage in violence. A wide range of activities and experiences preceded lone actors' plots or events. Many but not all lone-actor terrorists were socially isolated. Lone-actor terrorists regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement, or terrorist organization. Lone-actor terrorist events were rarely sudden and impulsive. There were distinguishable behavioral differences between subgroups. The implications for policy conclude this article. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilliestam, Johan

2014-01-01

The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets. - Highlights: • A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation. • Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks. • Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports. • Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker. • The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low

Combating the terrorist use of mass destruction weapons, particularly nuclear weapons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barakat, M.

2008-01-01

The risks of mass destruction weapons vary and also forms of damages resulting therefrom. While the effects of nuclear weapons are focused, sudden and comprehensive, the chemical weapons have limited impacts relatively unless used intensively severe prejudice to the element of surprise, and thus impaired the efficacy of their influences,especially that they affect exceptionally the individuals in the area of injury and biological weapons do not announce themselves except through their effect that appears later than the time of use as they affect exceptionally the organisms in the area of injury.The mass destruction weapons have turned from being a purely military means in the early twentieth century and have now become the means of violence against governments and countries that they should prepare themselves for and respond in ways of successful and effective countermeasures. Despite the fact that the acquisition of mass destruction weapons can be considered as a priority objective, which terrorist groups and organizations steadily seek but their accessibility is flanked by a lot of difficulties. Addressing the risk of further spread of nuclear weapons, and especially after doubling the power of those high-risk weapons, the international community has an approach to take a number of arrangements that complement each other to control and resist nuclear proliferation, either for the states or for terrorist groups.

Political terrorism and affective polarization in "black" and "red" terrorists in Italy during the years 1968-1988.

Science.gov (United States)

Pacini, Matteo; Maremmani, Icro

2018-04-01

Psychiatric evaluations of violent political crime were mostly performed on a case-by-case basis in a forensic environment, which made them unduly dependent on categories of presumed dangerousness and legal responsibility, rather than on a clinical definition of their mental status. In referring to such "clinical" definitions, the disorder we have in mind is not limited to the major, agitated psychotic manias or mixed states. The presence of a dominant temperament, or protracted hypomania, is enough by itself to explain an individual's engagement in a wide range of activities, not necessarily sociopathic or violent. We put forward the hypothesis that formal and transpolitical radical choices, either in favor of an illegal lifestyle or of activities involving a high level of risk, may be linked with certain mental states, especially when considering small clandestine groups showing a high level of internal ideological consensus, and a no-return attitude toward a commitment to radical choices. Available data about the psycho(patho)logical profile of terrorists are still hard to come by. The only available studies are those on identified living terrorists (judging by the trials of those who personally admitted to having been terrorists), and statistical data imply a number of documented cases belonging to the same terrorist organization. In Italy, the period often called the "years of lead [bullets]" displays an interesting viewpoint for the study of terrorist psychology, for two main reasons: first of all, it is a historically defined period (1968-1988), and second, the number of ascertained participants in terrorist activities was quite large.

Money, media and the anti-politics of terrorist finance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Goede, M.

2008-01-01

This article offers a critical analysis of the anti-politics of terrorist finance, understood as the particularly depoliticized governing practices enabled in its name. The article conceptualizes 'terrorist finance' not as an unproblematic reality which has elicited a state response, but as a

Radiation risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

1992-01-01

Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

Categorizing terrorist entities listed by the European Union according to terrorist groups’ underlying motives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liane Rothenberger

2015-10-01

Full Text Available States and international organizations have compiled lists of a great variety of terrorist groups. The current European Union list includes 44 entities. This study analyzes the underlying motives of the terrorist organizations named in this list. In order to understand the groups’ motivations and consequently be able to advise on methods of countering them with communication strategies, we employ a three-item typology provided by Waldmann (2001. The results show that only five of the 44 groups were religiously motivated to commit terrorism. Most of the groups (n=20 had nationalist-separatist motives, and 19 groups displayed social-revolutionary motives. Based on the respective motives, differing counter-terrorism strategies are proposed, e.g., developing rhetorical counter-narratives that address and reduce the groups’ motivational and identity-generating characteristics.

Intelligence Constraints on Terrorist Network Plots

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Gordon

Since 9/11, the western intelligence and law enforcement services have managed to interdict the great majority of planned attacks against their home countries. Network analysis shows that there are important intelligence constraints on the number and complexity of terrorist plots. If two many terrorists are involved in plots at a given time, a tipping point is reached whereby it becomes progressively easier for the dots to be joined and for the conspirators to be arrested, and for the aggregate evidence to secure convictions. Implications of this analysis are presented for the campaign to win hearts and minds.

The Current Legal Framework of the Use of Force against Terrorist Organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra PERISIC

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Events that took place on 9/11, when symbols of American nation were destroyed by hijacked civilian airplanes, raised the issue of the effectiveness of the currently existing legal framework which regulates terrorist activities. Prior to that event, dealing with terrorist activities was mostly regulated by conventions, many of which were ratified by no more than couple of states. However, it became questionable whether these instruments are sufficient to fight terrorists who are not only immune to a threat of sanctions, but are even ready to sacrifice their lives. After the attacks took place, the United States launched against Afghanistan an armed action, ending up in a more than a decade long occupation, holding Taliban regime responsible for the attacks undertaken by Al-Qaida. The United States response to the 9/11 raised an important question: what is the legal response to terrorist attacks? This article explores the current legal framework of the use of force in response to terrorist attacks, especially with regard to distinguishing terrorist acts which are attributable to a certain state, from those which are undertaken by a terrorist group, not associated with any particular state.

Israeli Adolescents' Coping Strategies in Relation to Terrorist Attacks

Science.gov (United States)

Tatar, Moshe; Amram, Sima

2007-01-01

Exposure to terrorism seriously threatens the well-being of children and adolescents. Israeli citizens have witnessed massive ongoing terrorist attacks during the last few years. The present research, conducted among 330 Israeli adolescents, examined coping strategies in relation to terrorist attacks. We found that adolescents utilize more…

How and Why Do Terrorist Organizations Use the Internet?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karolina Wojtasik

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article gives general characterisation of the ways in which these organizations use modern communication technologies. Currently, every major terrorist organisation maintain robust media wings, which focus on producing videos, publishing magazines and sharing them with the public via the Web. The empirical system of reference is based on the activity of al-Qaeda, her franchise AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and ISIS (the so-called Islamic State. While analysing the media of terrorist organisations, the Lasswell model was applied. This formula is a standard research procedure used for investigating acts of communication by answering the questions: who, says what, in which channel, to whom, with what effect?. The author also present typology of videos produced by jihadist organisations, characterised the most important and active media actions of terrorist organisations and a typology of recipients of such messages. The article presents a number of reasons why the Internet has become such an important tool for terrorists.

9/11, Act II: a fine-grained analysis of regional variations in traffic fatalities in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-12-01

Terrorists can strike twice--first, by directly killing people, and second, through dangerous behaviors induced by fear in people's minds. Previous research identified a substantial increase in U.S. traffic fatalities subsequent to the September 11 terrorist attacks, which were accounted for as due to a substitution of driving for flying, induced by fear of dread risks. Here, we show that this increase in fatalities varied widely by region, a fact that was best explained by regional variations in increased driving. Two factors, in turn, explained these variations in increased driving. The weaker factor was proximity to New York City, where stress reactions to the attacks were previously shown to be greatest. The stronger factor was driving opportunity, which was operationalized both as number of highway miles and as number of car registrations per inhabitant. Thus, terrorists' second strike exploited both fear of dread risks and, paradoxically, an environmental structure conducive to generating increased driving, which ultimately increased fatalities.

The alliance relationship analysis of international terrorist organizations with link prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Ling; Fang, Haiyang; Tian, Yanfang; Yang, Tinghong; Zhao, Jing

2017-09-01

Terrorism is a huge public hazard of the international community. Alliances of terrorist organizations may cause more serious threat to national security and world peace. Understanding alliances between global terrorist organizations will facilitate more effective anti-terrorism collaboration between governments. Based on publicly available data, this study constructed a alliance network between terrorist organizations and analyzed the alliance relationships with link prediction. We proposed a novel index based on optimal weighted fusion of six similarity indices, in which the optimal weight is calculated by genetic algorithm. Our experimental results showed that this algorithm could achieve better results on the networks than other algorithms. Using this method, we successfully digged out 21 real terrorist organizations alliance from current data. Our experiment shows that this approach used for terrorist organizations alliance mining is effective and this study is expected to benefit the form of a more powerful anti-terrorism strategy.

Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Jacob N.; Siegel, David A.

A review of international terrorist activity reveals a pattern of financially strapped operatives working for organizations that seem to have plenty of money. To explain this observation, and to examine when restricting terrorists’ funds will reduce their lethality, we model a hierarchical terror organization in which leaders delegate financial and logistical tasks to middlemen, but cannot perfectly monitor them for security reasons. These middlemen do not always share their leaders’ interests: the temptation exists to skim funds from financial transactions. When middlemen are sufficiently greedy and organizations suffer from sufficiently strong budget constraints, leaders will not fund attacks because the costs of skimming are too great. Using general functional forms, we find important nonlinearities in terrorists’ responses to government counter-terrorism. Restricting terrorists’ funds may be ineffective until a critical threshold is reached, at which point cooperation within terrorist organizations begins to break down and further government actions have a disproportionately large impact.

Optimal counterterrorism and the recruitment effect of large terrorist attacks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Thomas

2011-01-01

We analyze a simple dynamic model of the interaction between terrorists and authorities. Our primary aim is to study optimal counterterrorism and its consequences when large terrorist attacks lead to a temporary increase in terrorist recruitment. First, we show that an increase in counterterrorism...... makes it more likely that terrorist cells plan small rather than large attacks and therefore may increase the probability of a successful attack. Analyzing optimal counterterrorism we see that the recruitment effect makes authorities increase the level of counterterrorism after large attacks. Therefore......, in periods following large attacks a new attack is more likely to be small compared to other periods. Finally, we analyze the long-run consequences of the recruitment effect. We show that it leads to more counterterrorism, more small attacks, and a higher sum of terrorism damage and counterterrorism costs...

Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Caponecchia, Carlo

2012-09-01

Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Saudi Arabia: Terrorist Financing Issues

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Blanchard, Christoper M; Prados, Alfred B

2007-01-01

According to the U.S. State Department 2007 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, Saudi donors and unregulated charities have been a major source of financing to extremist and terrorist groups over the past 25 years...

The transport of plutonium industry in France. A high risk activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coeytaux, X.; Faid, Y.B.; Hazemann, J.; Marignac, Y.; Schneider, M.

2003-02-01

According to the estimations of the report more than 450 transport of materials including about 40 tons of plutonium circulate in France during one year. The nuclear matters transported are a source of danger. The risks in relation with the handling and transport of plutonium touch the criticality risk, its great toxicity, and the problem of proliferation. To these risks it is necessary to add terrorists attacks. Three scenarios of accidents have been developed to illustrate the risk potential. A scenario of train accident, with derailment in a tunnel then crash with an other train; a simple scenario occurring to a lorry of plutonium powder; then a scenario of an accident following a terrorist act. These scenarios should be studied by I.R.S.N and the results should be given to the public and to elected people confronted to the transport of plutonium. (N.C.)

Terrorist use of the Internet: exploitation and support through ICT infrastructure

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Veerasamy, N

2011-03-01

Full Text Available methods of fundraising are also possible. Electronic money transfer, laundering and generating support through front organisations are all fundraising methods used by terrorists (Goodman, Kirk & Kirk 2007). According to the Financial Action Task Force... agent. This allows terrorist groups to move money around without actually delivering the auctioned goods or services. Online casinos can be used for both laundering and storing money. When dealing with large sums of money, terrorists can place...

Know thy enemy: Education about terrorism improves social attitudes toward terrorists.

Science.gov (United States)

Theriault, Jordan; Krause, Peter; Young, Liane

2017-03-01

Hatred of terrorists is an obstacle to the implementation of effective counterterrorism policies-it invites indiscriminate retaliation, whereas many of the greatest successes in counterterrorism have come from understanding terrorists' personal and political motivations. Drawing from psychological research, traditional prejudice reduction strategies are generally not well suited to the task of reducing hatred of terrorists. Instead, in 2 studies, we explored education's potential ability to reduce extreme negative attitudes toward terrorists. Study 1 compared students in a college course on terrorism (treatment) with wait-listed students, measuring prosocial attitudes toward a hypothetical terrorist. Initially, all students reported extremely negative attitudes; however, at the end of the semester, treatment students' attitudes were significantly improved. Study 2 replicated the effect within a sample of treatment and control classes drawn from universities across the United States. The present work was part of an ongoing research project, focusing on foreign policy and the perceived threat of terrorism; thus classes did not explicitly aim to reduce prejudice, making the effect of treatment somewhat surprising. One possibility is that learning about terrorists "crowds out" the initial pejorative associations-that is, the label terrorism may ultimately call more information to mind, diluting its initial negative associative links. Alternatively, students may learn to challenge how the label terrorist is being applied. In either case, learning about terrorism can decrease the extreme negative reactions it evokes, which is desirable if one wishes to implement effective counterterrorism policies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

9/11, Act II : A Fine-Grained Analysis of Regional Variations in Traffic Fatalities in the Aftermath of the Terrorist Attacks

OpenAIRE

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

Terrorists can strike twice - first, by directly killing people, and second, through dangerous behaviors induced by fear in people's minds. Previous research identified a substantial increase in U.S. traffic fatalities subsequent to the September 11 terrorist attacks, which were accounted for as due to a substitution of driving for flying, induced by fear of dread risks. Here, we show that this increase in fatalities varied widely by region, a fact that was best explained by regional variatio...

Islamic State and Its Attitude to the Terrorist Attacks on the Energy Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukáš Tichý

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this article is both to analyze the importance of the terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure and industry for strategy of militant terrorist organization Islamic State against the background of the influence of Islam and to describe a specific example and manifestations of the terrorist activities focused on energy sector in the Middle East and North Africa. In the theoretical level, the article is based on the concept of terrorist attack on energy sector and relation between energy and Sunni Islam. In methodological level, the article is based on the case study method framing terrorist attacks of Islamic State on energy industry and infrastructure in Iraq, Syria and Libya.

Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists*,†,‡

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, Paul; Horgan, John; Deckert, Paige

2014-01-01

This article analyzes the sociodemographic network characteristics and antecedent behaviors of 119 lone-actor terrorists. This marks a departure from existing analyses by largely focusing upon behavioral aspects of each offender. This article also examines whether lone-actor terrorists differ based on their ideologies or network connectivity. The analysis leads to seven conclusions. There was no uniform profile identified. In the time leading up to most lone-actor terrorist events, other people generally knew about the offender’s grievance, extremist ideology, views, and/or intent to engage in violence. A wide range of activities and experiences preceded lone actors’ plots or events. Many but not all lone-actor terrorists were socially isolated. Lone-actor terrorists regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement, or terrorist organization. Lone-actor terrorist events were rarely sudden and impulsive. There were distinguishable behavioral differences between subgroups. The implications for policy conclude this article. PMID:24313297

Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

2008-04-02

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

Family Therapy of Terroristic Trauma: Psychological Syndromes and Treatment Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Laurence

2003-01-01

Reviews pertinent literature on terroristic trauma and combines this information with the author's experience in treating adults, children, and family victims and survivors of recent terrorist attacks. Describes the psychological syndromes resulting from terrorism and discusses the relevant individual and family therapy modalities for treating…

Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

OpenAIRE

Bo Li; Duoyong Sun; Renqi Zhu; Ze Li

2015-01-01

Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model ...

EWAS: Modeling Application for Early Detection of Terrorist Threats

Science.gov (United States)

Qureshi, Pir Abdul Rasool; Memon, Nasrullah; Wiil, Uffe Kock

This paper presents a model and system architecture for an early warning system to detect terrorist threats. The paper discusses the shortcomings of state-of-the-art systems and outlines the functional requirements that must to be met by an ideal system working in the counterterrorism domain. The concept of generation of early warnings to predict terrorist threats is presented. The model relies on data collection from open data sources, information retrieval, information extraction for preparing structured workable data sets from available unstructured data, and finally detailed investigation. The conducted investigation includes social network analysis, investigative data mining, and heuristic rules for the study of complex covert networks for terrorist threat indication. The presented model and system architecture can be used as a core framework for an early warning system.

Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups, 1970-2010: Is Ideological Orientation Relevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Forest, James J. F.

2012-01-01

This article examines whether a terrorist group's ideology has a meaningful impact on its involvement in kidnapping. On a global level, incident data (1970-2010) indicate that in the past decade the number of kidnappings by terrorist groups has increased, while Muslim extremists have replaced left-wing/Marxist revolutionaries as the world's…

The challenge of preparation for a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear terrorist attack

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander David

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Terrorism is not a new phenomenon, but, in the contemporary scene, it has established itself in a manner which commands the most serious attention of the authorities. Until relatively recently, the major threat has been through the medium of conventional weaponry and explosives. Their obvious convenience of use and accessibility guarantees that such methods will continue to represent a serious threat. However, over the last few years, terrorists have displayed an enthusiasm for higher levels of carnage, destruction and publicity. This trend leads inexorably to the conclusion that chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN methods will be pursued by terrorist organisations, particularly those which are well organised, are based on immutable ideological principles, and have significant financial backing. Whilst it is important that the authorities and the general public do not risk over-reacting to such a threat (otherwise, they will do the work of the terrorists for them, it would be equally ill-advised to seek comfort in denial. The reality of a CBRN event has to be accepted and, as a consequence, the authorities need to consider (and take seriously how individuals and the community are likely to react thereto and to identify (and rehearse in a realistic climate what steps would need to be taken to ameliorate the effects of such an event.

Closing the gap : measuring the social identity of terrorists

OpenAIRE

Ludwick, Keith W.

2008-01-01

CHDS State/Local Studies of terrorism today focus on psychological and behavioral aspects of individuals. Most research shows that using a single model in an attempt to profile terrorists psychologically is problematic, if not impossible. However, using two well established theories from social psychology, Social Identity Theory and Social Distance Theory, allows the development of a practical model to develop a social profile of a terrorist group. From that, it is further possible to...

25 CFR 11.402 - Terroristic threats.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... ORDER CODE Criminal Offenses § 11.402 Terroristic threats. A person is guilty of a misdemeanor if he or she threatens to commit any crime of violence with purpose to terrorize another or to cause evacuation...

Countering the Nuclear Terrorist Threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vantine, H C

2002-01-01

The nuclear/radioactive threat to homeland security posed by terrorists can be broken into four categories. Of highest concern is the use of an improvised nuclear device (IND). An IND, as its name implies, is a nuclear explosive device. It produces nuclear yield, and this nuclear yield has catastrophic effects. An IND is the ultimate terrorist weapon, and terrorist groups are actively attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Detonation of an IND could dwarf the devastation of the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center. Dealing with the aftermath of an IND would be horrific. Rescue efforts and cleanup would be hazardous and difficult. Workers would have to wear full protection suits and self-contained breathing apparatus. Because of the residual radioactivity, in certain locations they could only work short times before acquiring their ''lifetime'' dose. As with the Chernobyl event, some rescue workers might well expose themselves to lethal doses of radiation, adding to the casualty toll. Enormous volumes of contaminated debris would have to be removed and disposed. If a terrorist group decides not to pursue an actual nuclear device, it might well turn to Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs) or ''dirty bombs'' as they are often called. RDDs spread radioactivity but they do not generate nuclear yield. The fabrication of an RDD requires radioactive material and a dispersal mechanism. Radioactive materials are used all over the world for medical, industrial, and research applications. Standards for safe handling and accountability of radioactive material vary around the world. Stories in the press suggest inadequate controls on radiological materials in parts of the world. The effects of an RDD vary widely, and are measured in terms of contamination area, health effects to the exposed population, and economic consequences. Even a negligible, but measurable, exposure would exploit the general public's fear of things radioactive and would have significant

Tracking and Analyzing Individual Distress Following Terrorist Attacks Using Social Media Streams.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Ru; Margolin, Drew; Wen, Xidao

2017-08-01

Risk research has theorized a number of mechanisms that might trigger, prolong, or potentially alleviate individuals' distress following terrorist attacks. These mechanisms are difficult to examine in a single study, however, because the social conditions of terrorist attacks are difficult to simulate in laboratory experiments and appropriate preattack baselines are difficult to establish with surveys. To address this challenge, we propose the use of computational focus groups and a novel analysis framework to analyze a social media stream that archives user history and location. The approach uses time-stamped behavior to quantify an individual's preattack behavior after an attack has occurred, enabling the assessment of time-specific changes in the intensity and duration of an individual's distress, as well as the assessment of individual and social-level covariates. To exemplify the methodology, we collected over 18 million tweets from 15,509 users located in Paris on November 13, 2015, and measured the degree to which they expressed anxiety, anger, and sadness after the attacks. The analysis resulted in findings that would be difficult to observe through other methods, such as that news media exposure had competing, time-dependent effects on anxiety, and that gender dynamics are complicated by baseline behavior. Opportunities for integrating computational focus group analysis with traditional methods are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Development of Decision Aids for Counter-Terrorist Applications

Science.gov (United States)

1980-12-01

I.D. AM OLT of PLO A14YOLP of PLO Agua Sandinist TPLF of Turkey 0 TERORISTS 3 4 25 2 GROUP CAPABILITY Unknown Unknown Auto Weapons Sten Gun "DEADLINE...of any terrorist group to different situ - ations are not independent, but reflect a coherent policy regarding violence and willingness to negotiate...importance in this stage is the need to deter future terrorist activities with- out jeopardizing our credibility in future negotiation situ - ations. I8

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Who sets the Agenda: The Author or the Terrorist?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søndergaard, Leif

2012-01-01

Definitions of terrorism. Terorism in the 1980s, i.e. taking hostages and exploding bombs outside the US. UNA-bomber and Oklahoma bomber. Relations between author and terrorist in and outside USA before 9/11. Relations between terrorist and press. President Bush's rhetoric and various reactions t...... to 9/11. Novels by Safran Foer (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) and Don DeLillo (Falling Man) focus on the personal and private consequences whereas Mohsin Hamid (The Reluctant Fundamentalist) includes the other side....

Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimolong, B.

1980-01-01

Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

Religious cover to terrorist movement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaidi, M.K.

2005-01-01

Full text: Terrorism is the use of force or the threat of force against civilian populations to achieve political objectives. The terrorists create fear, response and disruption. People fighting for freedom who have no bombs - no airplanes would resort to such atrocities as beheading even though killing of innocent people is strictly prohibited in all the religions practiced on this earth. It is done out of political madness and not religious fervor so it was said that the fight against terrorism is not a military problem, nor is it a diplomatic one, but a cultural one. Terrorism is not associated to any particular faith or discipline but it is rooted deeply in poor education and resource system. Some frustrated individuals with no employment seek easy ways to form groups and cause harassment in neighborhoods and it expands to the local and national level. The scientific community must now resolve to confront the dangers facing civilized countries through employing the scientific culture, which means scientific excellence and solidarity, to overcome ignorance in the face of global terrorism. The developed nations have adopted to collect information, do research, have tools to act and take action. States must improve the timely cross-border sharing of national security intelligence information, under appropriate circumstances, between intelligence and law enforcement agencies to better prevent and disrupt terrorist activities and to prosecute terrorists. Some world's leaders have agreed to use the national security intelligence information in investigation and prosecution process as a vital component in the battle against terrorism. Political leaders, rulers, administrator, school counselors and teachers should think of how the problems could be solved if they meet the needs and hopes of their inhabitants, provide proper education to build good moral values and also address their concerns. (author)

Religious cover to terrorist movement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaidi, M K [US Department of Energy, Idaho Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL), Idaho Falls (United States)

2005-07-01

Full text: Terrorism is the use of force or the threat of force against civilian populations to achieve political objectives. The terrorists create fear, response and disruption. People fighting for freedom who have no bombs - no airplanes would resort to such atrocities as beheading even though killing of innocent people is strictly prohibited in all the religions practiced on this earth. It is done out of political madness and not religious fervor so it was said that the fight against terrorism is not a military problem, nor is it a diplomatic one, but a cultural one. Terrorism is not associated to any particular faith or discipline but it is rooted deeply in poor education and resource system. Some frustrated individuals with no employment seek easy ways to form groups and cause harassment in neighborhoods and it expands to the local and national level. The scientific community must now resolve to confront the dangers facing civilized countries through employing the scientific culture, which means scientific excellence and solidarity, to overcome ignorance in the face of global terrorism. The developed nations have adopted to collect information, do research, have tools to act and take action. States must improve the timely cross-border sharing of national security intelligence information, under appropriate circumstances, between intelligence and law enforcement agencies to better prevent and disrupt terrorist activities and to prosecute terrorists. Some world's leaders have agreed to use the national security intelligence information in investigation and prosecution process as a vital component in the battle against terrorism. Political leaders, rulers, administrator, school counselors and teachers should think of how the problems could be solved if they meet the needs and hopes of their inhabitants, provide proper education to build good moral values and also address their concerns. (author)

Sub Saharan African Terrorist Groups’ use of the Internet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stewart Bertram

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Recent actions by French military forces in Niger and the global prominence of terrorist groups such as Al Shabaab and Boko Haram, have highlighted the growing counter terrorist focus on the countries of Sub Saharan Africa. Additionally in a post Bin Laden world and with the immanent withdrawal of coalition combat troops from Afghanistan, there is the possibility of Africa as a continent becoming the new front in the Global War on Terror ('Mben' et al., 2013. However, it is a mistake to assume that Africa’s story is uniformly one of violence and death. Vibrant cultures and a rugged entrepreneurial spirit have combined with a robust Internet backbone, to create the embryonic emergence of high tech hotspots across Africa. With rising IT literacy levels, more and more Africans are becoming connected to the information super highway on a daily basis (Graham, 2010. A tiny minority of these Africans are terrorists.

Anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing in the Luxembourg investment fund market

OpenAIRE

Dietz, Andrea

2017-01-01

The field of Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing in their current form have had an important impact on the financial world for almost half a century. Today, Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing pose a threat to the integrity of the financial markets and systems worldwide. The intention behind implementing a regulatory Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing framework is to cut off the financial resources of criminals and to follow back the traces that finan...

The quest for significance model of radicalization: implications for the management of terrorist detainees.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Michelle; Kruglanski, Arie W

2014-01-01

Radicalization and its culmination in terrorism represent a grave threat to the security and stability of the world. A related challenge is effective management of extremists who are detained in prison facilities. The major aim of this article is to review the significance quest model of radicalization and its implications for management of terrorist detainees. First, we review the significance quest model, which elaborates on the roles of motivation, ideology, and social processes in radicalization. Secondly, we explore the implications of the model in relation to the risks of prison radicalization. Finally, we analyze the model's implications for deradicalization strategies and review preliminary evidence for the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program targeting components of the significance quest. Based on this evidence, we argue that the psychology of radicalization provides compelling reason for the inclusion of deradicalization efforts as an essential component of the management of terrorist detainees. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Terrorists: analogies and differences with mental diseases. A phenomenological-metaphysical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisogni, Primavera

2010-01-01

Are islamic terrorists insane? International scholars generally concede that Al Qaeda members are not mentally ill. But, until now, there has not been a shared consensus and a strong argument that can prove it. This paper intends to throw light on the specific dehumanization of terrorists and to show that they are always responsible for their acts, unlike those who are affected by mental diseases. The members of Al Qaeda deny the world of life and take the distance from its sense and value: in their perspective only subversive action makes sense. However they always maintain a transcendent relation with the world (I-you; I-it). Persons with serious mental diseases have generally lost the sense of their self and the transcendence with the world. Terrorists and people with mental illness share a common separation from the world of life: one is voluntary, the other is the consequence of a number of factors (biological, social, etc.). Terrorists and psychotics have nevertheless something in common: the deprivation of the self. A loss of being that--I argue--is at the origin of the ordinariness of terrorists and the experience of void in psychotics. Two symptoms that reveal the condition of an intimate dryness, from a phenomenological and a metaphysical point of view as a consequence of a distorted relation with the world of life. I shall discuss how ordinariness is strictly related with the blurring definition of terrorism.

Combatting Commercial Terrorists: The PKK Case

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

Kurdistan Workers’ Party, drug trafficking, human trafficking, cigarette smuggling, prostitution, extortion, money laundering , Turkey 15. NUMBER OF...91 F. MONEY LAUNDERING ............................................................... 93 G. CONCLUSION...opportunity to launder illegal money . Also, donations from a sympathetic population is another source of money and legitimacy for terrorist

Dynamical Adaptation in Terrorist Cells/Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar; Ahmed, Zaki

2010-01-01

Typical terrorist cells/networks have dynamical structure as they evolve or adapt to changes which may occur due to capturing or killing of a member of the cell/network. Analytical measures in graph theory like degree centrality, betweenness and closeness centralities are very common and have long...

Forensic Analysis of Terrorist Counter-Financing to Combat Nuclear Proliferation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drame, B. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Toler, L. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Bachner, Katherine [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

2016-02-01

The single greatest threat to U.S. homeland security remains the proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially among terrorists and other non-state actors who are not governed by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. One of the most important tools for combating terrorism among such rogue actors is counter-financing. Without funding, terrorists cannot acquire, maintain, or deploy nuclear weapons. According to the official report of the 9/11 Commission, counter-financing could have prevented the attacks of September 11, 2001. Unfortunately, no single country can defeat global terrorism. Successful counter-financing requires significant international cooperation. Since 2001, the United States and the European Union, despite vastly different approaches to intelligence gathering, have shared information through the Terrorist Finance Tracking Program (TFTP). That shared information allows authorities to trace suspicious transactions, identify culprits, and map out global terrorist networks. The TFTP successfully thwarted a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the U.S. and multiple threats during the 2012 Summer Olympics in London; it also aided in the investigation of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. That program is necessary but not sufficient. To strengthen our ability to detect and disrupt terrorist plotting and prevent nuclear proliferation, we must expand and coordinate two additional transnational measures: (1) the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), a standardized global messaging network for financial institutions to quickly, accurately, and securely send and receive money transfer instructions, and (2) International Bank Account Numbers (IBAN) to identify individual accounts involved in international transactions. Both initiatives were incompletely adopted in the wake of 9/11, but most global banks use one or neither. More fully implementing and coordinating these two systems would allow for coherent information

The Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Terrorist Use, Capability, and Strategic Implications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ball, Ryan Jokl [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-10-16

There has been unparalleled proliferation and technological advancement of consumer unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across the globe in the past several years. As witnessed over the course of insurgency tactics, it is difficult to restrict terrorists from using widely available technology they perceive as advantageous to their overall strategy. Through a review of the characteristics, consumer market landscape, tactics, and countertactics, as well as operational use of consumer-grade UAVs, this open-source report seeks to provide an introductory understanding of the terrorist-UAV landscape, as well as insights into present and future capabilities. The caveat is evaluating a developing technology haphazardly used by terrorists in asymmetric conflicts.

The Dynamics of the Creation, Evolution, and Disappearance of Terrorist Internet Forums

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Ricardo Torres-Soriano

2013-06-01

Full Text Available An examination of the organizational nature of the threat posed by jihadi terrorism, supplying quantitative and qualitative data on the dynamics behind the creation, evolution, and disappearance of the main jihadi Internet forums during the period 2008–2012. An analysis of the origins and functions of the forums, their links with terrorist organizations, their internal structures, and the processes accounting for their stability in cyberspace shows that far from representinga horizontal structure where the main actors are a network of followers, the terrorist presence on the Internet is in fact a hierarchical organization in which intervention by formal terrorist organizations plays a crucial role.

Terrorist Capabilities for Cyberattack: Overview and Policy Issues

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rollins, John; Wilson, Clay

2005-01-01

.... Persistent Internet and computer security vulnerabilities, which have been widely publicized, may gradually encourage terrorists to develop new computer skills, or develop alliances with criminal...

Training, SEVIS, and NSEERS: Will They Stop Terrorists from Entering the U.S

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bugarin, Darwina S

2007-01-01

.... Stopping their entry is key to preventing attacks. The 9/11 Commission's Staff Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, 9/11 and Terrorist Travel, identified pre-9/11 gaps/weaknesses in U.S...

Remediation following a CBRN terrorist attack : domestic and international perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yanofsky, N. [Defence Research and Development Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2005-07-01

The risks of chemical, biological and radiological/nuclear (CBRN) agents in terrorist attacks is well recognized. Serious measures must be in place to respond to terrorist attacks that involve these agents, including cleanup of affected buildings, machinery, land, water and air. This paper describes what is expected from the science community in the development of adequate, reliable and economical decontamination methods and equipment. It also discusses improved detection methods and adequate personal protection. Cleanup after a terrorist attack has much in common with the cleanup of contaminated sites or dealing with the consequences of industrial accidents, particularly as most potential chemical terror agents are represented by toxic industrial chemicals. The major needs of organizations involved in cleanup procedures were reviewed. Issues concerning first responders, assessment of situations, information collecting and the detection of possible chemical, biological and radiological agents were discussed. The development of generic decontamination procedures and equipment was suggested, with reference to the fact that the spectrum of CBRN weapons is very broad. In addition, the development of detection systems and instruments capable of analyzing a broad range of agents was also seen as desirable. New generation instruments such as Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs) detectors were reviewed. Guidelines for cleanup procedures and remediation efforts were examined. It was also noted that there is relatively little information available to predict the behaviour of potential agents of CBRN terrorism in a complex urban environment. By studying different complex threat scenarios, scientists, first responders and other parties can achieve a better understanding of how to optimize the deployment of their resources. Mechanical, physiochemical and biological methods of decontamination were evaluated. Issues concerning waste disposal were discussed. It was noted that the

Mass casualty response in the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Nobhojit; Kapil, Vikas; Subbarao, Italo; Ashkenazi, Isaac

2011-12-01

The November 26-29, 2008, terrorist attacks on Mumbai were unique in its international media attention, multiple strategies of attack, and the disproportionate national fear they triggered. Everyone was a target: random members of the general population, iconic targets, and foreigners alike were under attack by the terrorists. A retrospective, descriptive study of the distribution of terror victims to various city hospitals, critical radius, surge capacity, and the nature of specialized medical interventions was gathered through police, legal reports, and interviews with key informants. Among the 172 killed and 304 injured people, about four-fifths were men (average age, 33 years) and 12% were foreign nationals. The case-fatality ratio for this event was 2.75:1, and the mortality rate among those who were critically injured was 12%. A total of 38.5% of patients arriving at the hospitals required major surgical intervention. Emergency surgical operations were mainly orthopedic (external fixation for compound fractures) and general surgical interventions (abdominal explorations for penetrating bullet/shrapnel injuries). The use of heavy-duty automatic weapons, explosives, hostages, and arson in these terrorist attacks alerts us to new challenges to medical counterterrorism response. The need for building central medical control for a coordinated response and for strengthening public hospital capacity are lessons learned for future attacks. These particular terrorist attacks had global consequences, in terms of increased security checks and alerts for and fears of further similar "Mumbai-style" attacks. The resilience of the citizens of Mumbai is a critical measure of the long-term effects of terror attacks.

The Lord’s Resistance Army: an African Terrorist Group?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma Leonard

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The years since 9/11 have been characterised by the increasing threat of terrorist action in the  Middle East and South Asia. Yet Sub-Saharan Africa was has also become a region of concern. In 1998, it had been the scene of two Al-Qaeda attacks against US embassies; besides Africa is home to large Muslim populations. Since 9/11 African violent non-state groups unrelated to Al- Qaeda or to the wider Islamist movement have been recast as terrorist organisations. These groups primarily operate in conflict zones, an area of research that traditionally has not been the main focus of Terrorism Studies. Protagonists have at various times been called freedom fighters, rebels, warlords, insurgents or simply violent gangs. This article looks at the most notorious of African groups – the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA. It argues that some groups like the LRA have been recast as terrorist organisations not because of a change in their activities but due to a change in the geo-strategic environment they found themselves in the post-9/11 period. The LRA’s ideology and tactics will be judged against a broad definition of terrorism in order to test whether the group can, in an objective way, be called a terrorist organisation. It is concluded that the LRA is too ambiguous an organisation to be simply labelled in such a way. It is also suggested that the terrorism label has in fact been an obstacle to attempts to end successfully a confrontation that is now going into its 24th year. 

Severe accidents and terrorist threats at nuclear reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollack, G.L.

1987-01-01

Some of the key areas of uncertainty are the nature of the physical and chemical interactions of released fission products and of the interactions between a molten core and concrete, the completeness and validity of the computer codes used to predict accidents, and the behavior of the containment. Because of these and other uncertainties, it is not yet possible to reliably predict the consequences of reactor accidents. It is known that for many accident scenarios, especially less severe ones or where the containment is not seriously compromised, the amount of radioactive material expected to escape the reactor is less, even much less, than was previously calculated. For such accidents, the predictions are easier and more reliable. With severe accidents, however, there is considerable uncertainty as to the predicted results. For accidents of the type that terrorists might cause - for example, where the sequence of failure would be unexpected or where redundant safety features are caused to fail together - the uncertainties are still larger. The conclusion, then, is that there are potential dangers to the public from terrorist actions at a nuclear reactor; however, because of the variety of potential terrorist threats and the incompleteness of the knowledge about the behavior of reactor components and fission products during accidents, the consequences cannot yet be assessed quantitatively

40 years of terrorist bombings - A meta-analysis of the casualty and injury profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, D S; McMenemy, L; Stapley, S A; Patel, H D L; Clasper, J C

2016-03-01

Terrorists have used the explosive device successfully globally, with their effects extending beyond the resulting injuries. Suicide bombings, in particular, are being increasingly deployed due to the devastating effect of a combination of high lethality and target accuracy. The aim of this study was to identify trends and analyse the demographics and casualty figures of terrorist bombings worldwide. Analysis of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and a PubMed/Embase literature search (keywords "terrorist", and/or "suicide", and/or "bombing") from 1970 to 2014 was performed. 58,095 terrorist explosions worldwide were identified in the GTD. 5.08% were suicide bombings. Incidents per year are increasing (Pprofile of survivors to guide the immediate response by the medical services and the workload in the coming days. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

A data-stream classification system for investigating terrorist threats

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Alexia; Dettman, Joshua; Gottschalk, Jeffrey; Kotson, Michael; Vuksani, Era; Yu, Tamara

2016-05-01

The role of cyber forensics in criminal investigations has greatly increased in recent years due to the wealth of data that is collected and available to investigators. Physical forensics has also experienced a data volume and fidelity revolution due to advances in methods for DNA and trace evidence analysis. Key to extracting insight is the ability to correlate across multi-modal data, which depends critically on identifying a touch-point connecting the separate data streams. Separate data sources may be connected because they refer to the same individual, entity or event. In this paper we present a data source classification system tailored to facilitate the investigation of potential terrorist activity. This taxonomy is structured to illuminate the defining characteristics of a particular terrorist effort and designed to guide reporting to decision makers that is complete, concise, and evidence-based. The classification system has been validated and empirically utilized in the forensic analysis of a simulated terrorist activity. Next-generation analysts can use this schema to label and correlate across existing data streams, assess which critical information may be missing from the data, and identify options for collecting additional data streams to fill information gaps.

Terrorist Capabilities for Cyberattack: Overview and Policy Issues

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rollins, John; Wilson, Clay

2005-01-01

... organizations and consider attempting a cyberattack against the critical infrastructure. Cybercrime increased dramatically between 2004 and 2005, and several recent terrorist events appear to have been funded partially through online credit card fraud...

Analysing Personal Characteristics of Lone-Actor Terrorists: Research Findings and Recommendations

OpenAIRE

Roy, de, van Zuijdewijn J.; Bakker, E.

2016-01-01

This Research Note presents the outcome of a project that looked at the personal characteristics of lone-actor terrorists. It is part of the larger Countering Lone-Actor Terrorism (CLAT) project. The project described here aimed to improve understanding of, and responses to, the phenomenon of (potentially) violent lone-actors based on an analysis of 120 cases from across Europe. The Research Note focuses on the personal characteristics of lone-actor terrorists.[1] First of all, it presents th...

Architectural and structural engineering aspects of protective design for nuclear power plants against terrorist attack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musacchio, J.M.; Rozen, A.

1987-01-01

This paper presents the results of several threat studies which have been performed, provides collective data on costs, and discusses, in a general sense, architectural/structural aspects of passive protection design measures which have been developed and utilized at several nuclear power plants. By combining relevant architectural and structural measures in the standard design, it is possible to substantially reduce the vulnerability of nuclear power plants to terrorist attack and the estimated damage to a manageable level with a minimal investment. (orig./HP)

Suits Against Terrorist States by Victims of Terrorism

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Elsea, Jennifer K

2008-01-01

... assets to satisfy judgments. After a court ruled that Congress never created a cause of action against terrorist States themselves, but only against their officials, employees, and agents, plaintiffs have based claims on state law...

Chemical Plants Remain Vulnerable to Terrorists: A Call to Action

Science.gov (United States)

Lippin, Tobi Mae; McQuiston, Thomas H.; Bradley-Bull, Kristin; Burns-Johnson, Toshiba; Cook, Linda; Gill, Michael L.; Howard, Donna; Seymour, Thomas A.; Stephens, Doug; Williams, Brian K.

2006-01-01

U.S. chemical plants currently have potentially catastrophic vulnerabilities as terrorist targets. The possible consequences of these vulnerabilities echo from the tragedies of the Bhopal incident in 1984 to the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and, most recently, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Findings from a 2004 nationwide participatory research study of 125 local union leaders at sites with very large volumes of highly hazardous chemicals suggest that voluntary efforts to achieve chemical plant security are not succeeding. Study respondents reported that companies had only infrequently taken actions that are most effective in preventing or in preparing to respond to a terrorist threat. In addition, companies reportedly often failed to involve key stakeholders, including workers, local unions, and the surrounding communities, in these efforts. The environmental health community thus has an opportunity to play a key role in advocating for and supporting improvements in prevention of and preparation for terrorist attacks. Policy-level recommendations to redress chemical site vulnerabilities and the related ongoing threats to the nation’s security are as follows: a) specify detailed requirements for chemical site assessment and security; b) mandate audit inspections supported by significant penalties for cases of noncompliance; c) require progress toward achieving inherently safer processes, including the minimizing of storage of highly hazardous chemicals; d) examine and require additional effective actions in prevention, emergency preparedness, and response and remediation; e) mandate and fund the upgrading of emergency communication systems; and f) involve workers and community members in plan creation and equip and prepare them to prevent and respond effectively to an incident. PMID:16966080

Quantifying IT estimation risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

2009-01-01

A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

31 CFR 594.310 - Specially designated global terrorist; SDGT.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... (Continued) OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY GLOBAL TERRORISM SANCTIONS REGULATIONS General Definitions § 594.310 Specially designated global terrorist; SDGT. The term specially...

Radiation in space: risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fry, R.J.M.

2002-01-01

The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

Analytical technique to address terrorist threats by chemical weapons of mass destruction

Science.gov (United States)

Dempsey, Patrick M.

1997-01-01

Terrorism is no longer an issue without effect on the American mind. We now live with the same concerns and fears that have been commonplace in other developed and third world countries for a long time. Citizens of other countries have long lived with the specter of terrorism and now the U.S. needs to be concerned and prepared for terrorist activities.T he terrorist has the ability to cause great destructive effects by focusing their effort on unaware and unprepared civilian populations. Attacks can range from simple explosives to sophisticated nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Intentional chemical releases of hazardous chemicals or chemical warfare agents pose a great threat because of their ready availability and/or ease of production, and their ability to cause widespread damage. As this battlefront changes from defined conflicts and enemies to unnamed terrorists, we must implement the proper analytical tools to provide a fast and efficient response. Each chemical uses in a terrorists weapon leaves behind a chemical signature that can be used to identify the materials involved and possibly lead investigators to the source and to those responsible. New tools to provide fast and accurate detection for battlefield chemical and biological agent attack are emerging. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) is one of these tools that has found increasing use by the military to respond to chemical agent attacks. As the technology becomes smaller and more portable, it can be used by law enforcement personnel to identify suspected terrorist releases and to help prepare the response; define contaminated areas for evacuation and safety concerns, identify the proper treatment of exposed or affected civilians, and suggest decontamination and cleanup procedures.

In Their Own Words? Methodological Considerations in the Analysis of Terrorist Autobiographies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary Beth Altier

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the growth of terrorism literature in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, there remain several methodological challenges to studying certain aspects of terrorism. This is perhaps most evident in attempts to uncover the attitudes, motivations, and intentions of individuals engaged in violent extremism and how they are sometimes expressed in problematic behavior. Such challenges invariably stem from the fact that terrorists and the organizations to which they belong represent clandestine populations engaged in illegal activity. Unsurprisingly, these qualities make it difficult for the researcher to identify and locate willing subjects of study—let alone a representative sample. In this research note, we suggest the systematic analysis of terrorist autobiographies offers a promising means of investigating difficult-to-study areas of terrorism-related phenomena. Investigation of autobiographical accounts not only offers additional data points for the study of individual psychological issues, but also provides valuable perspectives on the internal structures, processes, and dynamics of terrorist organizations more broadly. Moreover, given most autobiographies cover critical events and personal experiences across the life course, they provide a unique lens into how terrorists perceive their world and insight into their decision-making processes. We support our advocacy of this approach by highlighting its methodological strengths and shortcomings.

The personality profile of terrorist leaders: theoretical aspects and ways of measuring

OpenAIRE

Dimitrovska, Aleksandra; Dojcinovski, Metodija

2015-01-01

The main task of the psychology of terrorism is to explain the psychological aspects of terrorism, trying to provide answers about the behavior of the persons involved in terrorist activities. The literature suggests that there is no a single theory that explains the reasons and the way of "making the terrorists." While the first generation of research have viewed on terrorism as a pathology, explaining it predominantly through mental illness and psychopathic personality, th...

Impunity for International Terrorists? Key Legal Questions and Practical Considerations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christophe Paulussen

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This Research Paper discusses several of the key questions related to the subject of impunity of international terrorists, taking both a fundamental and a more practical approach within the context of international law. First, it reflects on a number of core definitional and theoretical questions which have been pushed into the background of day‐to‐day reality, by the actual fight against terrorism. For instance: what does the concept of impunity entail exactly and which kinds of standards could be used in measuring impunity? Is it clear what falls under the header of international terrorism and can it in fact be argued that international terrorists enjoy impunity? In practical terms, the paper explores a number of questions related to the actual prosecution of terrorism. What are the obstacles that national prosecutors face every day when prosecuting suspects of international terrorism? To what extent does a rule that prima facie seems ideal to fight terrorism (aut dedere aut judicare: either extradite or prosecute apply to terrorist offences? And what is the role of international criminal law – and the international criminal tribunals – in fighting terrorism? The Paper concludes with a series of recommendations.

Vulnerability analysis and critical areas identification of the power systems under terrorist attacks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Zhao, Mingwei; Min, Xu

2017-05-01

This paper takes central China power grid (CCPG) as an example, and analyzes the vulnerability of the power systems under terrorist attacks. To simulate the intelligence of terrorist attacks, a method of critical attack area identification according to community structures is introduced. Meanwhile, three types of vulnerability models and the corresponding vulnerability metrics are given for comparative analysis. On this basis, influence of terrorist attacks on different critical areas is studied. Identifying the vulnerability of different critical areas will be conducted. At the same time, vulnerabilities of critical areas under different tolerance parameters and different vulnerability models are acquired and compared. Results show that only a few number of vertex disruptions may cause some critical areas collapse completely, they can generate great performance losses the whole systems. Further more, the variation of vulnerability values under different scenarios is very large. Critical areas which can cause greater damage under terrorist attacks should be given priority of protection to reduce vulnerability. The proposed method can be applied to analyze the vulnerability of other infrastructure systems, they can help decision makers search mitigation action and optimum protection strategy.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

ANTI-TERROR POLICY OF UZBEKISTAN IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE REGIONAL ANTI-TERRORIST POLICY OF THE SCO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

С П Базылева

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The beginning of the XXI century was marked by a number of serious problems, including cancer, world hunger, environmental problems and increasing every year the problem of global terrorism, which poses a great threat to the security of the modern multipolar world. Uzbekistan today occupies a firm position in fight against terrorist threat. The principled position of Uzbekistan in the fight against terrorism is that “no country should exclude their participation in the fight against global terrorism, there must be no transit zones and "green corridors" for terrorist organizations”. The Central Asian region is one of the most vulnerable, because it is necessary to pay special attention to the strategy of the anti-terrorist security of the countries included in the structure of the Central Asian region. In this article, we consider the anti-terrorist policy of Uzbekistan in the framework of the regional anti-terrorist policy of the SCO.

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Clinical and psychological aspects of adolescent involvement in extremist and terrorist activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oshevsky D.S.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the clinical and psychological aspects of including minors in terrorist and extremist activities. In the historical perspective, it was traced how the views on the role of mental disorders in the genesis of such crimes changed. It is shown that terrorist and extremist activity must be viewed as a complex multi-factor phenomenon, in which socio-psychological components play a leading role. It is noted that the psychopathological process can act as a prerequisite for inclusion in such radical groups. Psychoanalytic, sociological, cognitive approaches, theories of social learning and the concept of diffuse ego-identity making attempts to explain the mechanisms of terrorist and extremist activity in minors are analyzed. The problem of insufficient study of the influence of the Internet and social networks on the formation of readiness for admission to adolescents in radical organizations is posed.

Closing the Gap: Measuring the Social Identity of Terrorists

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ludwick, Keith W

2008-01-01

.... However, using two well-established theories from social psychology, Social Identity Theory and Social Distance Theory, allows the development of a practical model to develop a social profile of a terrorist group...

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data-Driven Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuurman, Bart; Bakker, Edwin; Gill, Paul; Bouhana, Noémie

2017-10-23

This article provides an in-depth assessment of lone actor terrorists' attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre-attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open-source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the "loneness" thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re-evaluation of the "lone actor" concept. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Forensic Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

The human body as a terrorist weapon: hunger strikes and suicide bombers

OpenAIRE

Mollica, Marcello; Dingley, James

2007-01-01

This article argues that a major factor in terrorist acts is an appeal to the actor's own community at an emotional and symbolic level, through acts of sacrifice, particularly self-sacrifice. Although other aims also exist, a prime concern is to recall the actor's home audience to the struggle, because the actor regards himself as acting on their behalf. This utilizes the imagery and symbolism of traditional religion, implying a strong communal and non-material impetus to terrorist acts, rath...

Closing the Gap: Measuring the Social Identity of Terrorists

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ludwick, Keith W

2008-01-01

.... From that, it is further possible to use the resulting social profile to compare terrorist groups against each other in order to develop predictive models as to the propensity of violence of a particular group...

Game Theoretic Centrality Analysis of Terrorist Networks : The Cases of Jemaah Islamiyah and Al Qaeda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lindelauf, R.; Hamers, H.J.M.; Husslage, B.G.M.

2011-01-01

The identification of key players in a terrorist network can lead to prevention of attacks, due to efficient allocation of surveillance means or isolation of key players in order to destabilize the network. In this paper we introduce a game theoretic approach to identify key players in terrorist

Protecting chemical plants against terrorist attacks: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khakzad Rostami, N.; Reniers, G.L.L.M.E.

2015-01-01

Protection of hazardous establishments such as chemical plants intentional incidents has drawn attention from safety and security experts since 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. Although major steps have been taken since, the recent intentional incidents in two chemical plants in France in June and

When Do Governments Concede to Terrorists

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

crisis, 146 people were taken hostage by the terrorist group Tupac Amaru (MRTA) at the Japanese Embassy in Peru . Six of those were American...hispanic_heritage/article-9475994 FARC-EP. (2009). Chronology of resistance: FARC-EP, a history of struggle. Retrieved from http://resistencia- colombia.org...index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=463: chronology - of-resistance-farc-ep-a-history-of-struggle&catid=50&Itemid=85 Gladwell, M. (2000). The

An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M.

2014-01-01

The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210 Po; 226 Ra and 241 Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137 Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

2018-04-01

The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-09-01

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

A data fusion approach to indications and warnings of terrorist attacks

Science.gov (United States)

McDaniel, David; Schaefer, Gregory

2014-05-01

Indications and Warning (I&W) of terrorist attacks, particularly IED attacks, require detection of networks of agents and patterns of behavior. Social Network Analysis tries to detect a network; activity analysis tries to detect anomalous activities. This work builds on both to detect elements of an activity model of terrorist attack activity - the agents, resources, networks, and behaviors. The activity model is expressed as RDF triples statements where the tuple positions are elements or subsets of a formal ontology for activity models. The advantage of a model is that elements are interdependent and evidence for or against one will influence others so that there is a multiplier effect. The advantage of the formality is that detection could occur hierarchically, that is, at different levels of abstraction. The model matching is expressed as a likelihood ratio between input text and the model triples. The likelihood ratio is designed to be analogous to track correlation likelihood ratios common in JDL fusion level 1. This required development of a semantic distance metric for positive and null hypotheses as well as for complex objects. The metric uses the Web 1Terabype database of one to five gram frequencies for priors. This size requires the use of big data technologies so a Hadoop cluster is used in conjunction with OpenNLP natural language and Mahout clustering software. Distributed data fusion Map Reduce jobs distribute parts of the data fusion problem to the Hadoop nodes. For the purposes of this initial testing, open source models and text inputs of similar complexity to terrorist events were used as surrogates for the intended counter-terrorist application.

The Counter Terrorist Classroom: Religion, Education, and Security

Science.gov (United States)

Gearon, Liam

2013-01-01

The article identifies international cases--from the United States, Europe, and the United Nations--of an emergent interface of religion, education, and security. This is manifest in the uses of religion in education to counter religious extremism, the notional "counter terrorist classroom." To avoid an over-association of extremism with…

Terrorist Capabilities for Cyberattack: Overview and Policy Issues

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-22

called “Digital Pearl Harbor” (DPH), with the result that 79% of the gamers said that a strategic cyberattack against the United States was likely...terrorist sponsors, five of them — North Korea , Sudan, Syria, Libya, and Cuba — are described as a diminishing concern for terrorism. Only Iran remains

Terrorists and Sponsors. An Inquiry into Trust and Double-Crossing

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Gordon H.; Owen, Guillermo

We consider the conditions that lead to the dissolution of state-terrorist coalitions. While such coalitions have well known advantages, they also have structural weaknesses that are largely ignored in the literature on the state sponsorship of terrorism. Each player in the coalition has interests that are only partially shared and, in some cases, at odds with those of its partner. Long term cooperation must be based on mutual advantage and mutual trust, both of which are subject to change over time.We examine the conditions that are needed to begin and maintain a cooperative strategy and the circumstances that lead a state and a terrorist group to leave the coalition and double-cross its partner. Equilibrium strategies for both players are defined and interpreted.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

Science.gov (United States)

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persson, B.R.R.

1983-01-01

This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

The meaning of collective terrorist threat : Understanding the subjective causes of terrorism reduces its negative psychological impact

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fischer, Peter; Postmes, Tom; Koeppl, Julia; Conway, Lianne; Fredriksson, Tom

This article hypothesized that the possibility to construct intellectual meaning of a terrorist attack (i.e., whether participants can cognitively understand why the perpetrators did their crime) reduces the negative psychological consequences typically associated with increased terrorist threat.

A Geographic Information Science (GISc) Approach to Characterizing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq, 2004-2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Medina, Richard M [ORNL; Siebeneck, Laura K. [University of Utah; Hepner, George F. [University of Utah

2011-01-01

As terrorism on all scales continues, it is necessary to improve understanding of terrorist and insurgent activities. This article takes a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to advance the understanding of spatial, social, political, and cultural triggers that influence terrorism incidents. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of terrorist attacks are examined to improve knowledge about terrorist systems of training, planning, and actions. The results of this study aim to provide a foundation for understanding attack patterns and tactics in emerging havens as well as inform the creation and implementation of various counterterrorism measures.

The need to estimate risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pochin, E.E.

1980-01-01

In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

An assessment of the terrorist threat to use a nuclear or radiological device in an attack

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kingshott, B.F. [Grand Valley State University, 275C DeVos Center, 401 West Fulton Street, Grand Rapids, MI 49504 (United States)]. E-mail: kingshob@gvsu.edu

2006-07-01

This paper will discuss terrorism from the perspective of a terrorist organisation acquiring nuclear material to build weapons and how security of radiological material world wide will minimise the risk of such devices being used. It will discuss the need to improve security at nuclear waste processing and storage sites and the adequacy of current security. It will also discuss the phenomenon of suicide attacks by the bomb carriers and the role of the media in informing and educating the general public of the consequences should such a device containing nuclear material be detonated. (author)

Liquid Missile Fuels as Means of Chemical Terrorist Attack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Superina, V.; Orehovec, Z.

2007-01-01

Modern world is faced with numerous terrorist attacks whose goals, methods and means of the conduct are various. It seems that we have entered the era when terrorism, one's own little terrorism, is the easiest and the most painless way of achieving a goal. That is why that such a situation has contributed to the necessity for strengthening individual and collective protection and safety, import and export control, control of the production and illegal sale of the potential means for delivering terrorist act. It has also contributed to the necessity for devising means of the delivery. For more than 10 years, a series of congresses on CB MTS Industry has pointed at chemicals and chemical industry as potential means and targets of terrorism. The specialization and experience of different authors in the field of the missile technology and missile fuels, especially those of Eastern origin, and the threat that was the reality of the war conflicts in 1990s was the reason for making a scientific and expert analysis of the liquid missile fuels as means of terrorism. There are not many experts in the field of NBC protection who are familiar with the toxicity and reaction of liquid missile fuels still lying discarded and unprotected in abandoned barracks all over Europe and Asia. The purpose of this paper is to draw public attention to possible different abuses of liquid missile fuels for a terrorist purpose, as well as to possible consequences and prevention measures against such abuses. (author)

Asian Organized Crime and Terrorist Activity in Canada, 1999-2002

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Helfand, Neil S

2003-01-01

This study is based on open source research into the scope of Asian organized crime and terrorist activity in Canada during the period 1999 to 2002, and the extent of cooperation and possible overlap...

Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger, F.W.

1979-01-01

The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-07-01

The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

The transport of plutonium industry in France. A high risk activity; Les transports de l'industrie du plutonium en France. Une activite a haut risque. Resume de l'etude et rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coeytaux, X.; Faid, Y.B.; Hazemann, J.; Marignac, Y.; Schneider, M

2003-02-15

According to the estimations of the report more than 450 transport of materials including about 40 tons of plutonium circulate in France during one year. The nuclear matters transported are a source of danger. The risks in relation with the handling and transport of plutonium touch the criticality risk, its great toxicity, and the problem of proliferation. To these risks it is necessary to add terrorists attacks. Three scenarios of accidents have been developed to illustrate the risk potential. A scenario of train accident, with derailment in a tunnel then crash with an other train; a simple scenario occurring to a lorry of plutonium powder; then a scenario of an accident following a terrorist act. These scenarios should be studied by I.R.S.N and the results should be given to the public and to elected people confronted to the transport of plutonium. (N.C.)

Exploitation of Free Markets and Globalization to Finance Terrorists

Science.gov (United States)

2008-09-01

is their capability to exploit the black market peso exchange or the international foreign exchange arbitrage . Under the scenario of a weak U.S...appears legitimate. By using intermediaries or legitimate businesses, the financial markets are wide open for terrorists to hedge funds and

Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

1988-10-01

This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

The Next Terrorist Attack: Not If, But When...Are We Prepared?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lynch, David

2004-01-01

.... Since lessons learned from past attacks call attention to the terrorists' ability to overcome military defenses, the importance of well-developed, exercised response plans cannot be overstated...

The Terrorist War against Islam: Clarifying Academic Confusions

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Stephen

2011-01-01

Since the terrorist atrocities of September 11, 2001, Westerners have been challenged to understand the ideological and theological concepts, derived from Islam, that motivated the actions of Al-Qaida on that day and in other attacks before and since. Differences in taxonomy have proven to be a major issue. In the author's view, it is insufficient…

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia Benito Muela

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

A First Look on iMiner's Knowledge base and Detecting Hidden Hierarchy of Riyadh Bombing Terrorist Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Memon, Nasrullah

2007-01-01

  - Data collection is difficult to any network analysis because it is difficult to create a complete network.  It is not easy to gain information on terrorist networks.  It is fact that terrorist organizations do not provide information on their members and the government rarely allows researche...

The Nation That Cried Lone Wolf : A Data-Driven Analysis of Individual Terrorists in the United States Since 9/11

OpenAIRE

Eby, Charles A.

2012-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Lone-wolf terrorist attacks have occurred in the United States throughout the countrys history. Attempted attacks from individual terrorists unaffiliated with terrorist groups may be becoming more prevalent. Both the general public and government officials acknowledge the presence and importance of these attacks; however, relatively little literature exists on the subject compared to group terrorism. Much of the information on lone wol...

Computing Optimal Mixed Strategies for Terrorist Plot Detection Games with the Consideration of Information Leakage

OpenAIRE

Li MingChu; Yang Zekun; Lu Kun; Guo Cheng

2017-01-01

The terrorist’s coordinated attack is becoming an increasing threat to western countries. By monitoring potential terrorists, security agencies are able to detect and destroy terrorist plots at their planning stage. Therefore, an optimal monitoring strategy for the domestic security agency becomes necessary. However, previous study about monitoring strategy generation fails to consider the information leakage, due to hackers and insider threat. Such leakage events may lead to failure of watch...

Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, E.W.

1983-01-01

Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

CERN Document Server

Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

2017-01-01

This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

Freed: Ripples of the Convicted and Released Terrorist in America

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

Singapore, Malaysia , Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines (The International Conference on Terrorist Rehabilitation, 2009). No single methodology to...2009, p. 16). Care Rehabilitation Centers include group meals, art therapy, recreation and other leisure activity to “build teamwork but also

Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

2016-01-01

.73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

The Use of Structures in Communication Networks to Track Membership in Terrorist Groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.A Eiselt

2015-02-01

Full Text Available This concept paper investigates possibilities to detect terrorist cells based on communications between individuals without the need for wiretapping. The advantages of such procedure are apparent: fewer (if any legal requirements, and, most importantly, the possibility to automate the surveillance. After a brief review of the pertinent literature, we offer three approaches that are designed to aid in the detection of not only terrorist cells, but also the command structures within the cells. The techniques are demonstrated by using a small illustration. The paper concludes by outlining limitations of the procedures described here.

Preemption and Retribution: Precision-Guided Munitions to Counter Terrorist Threats

Science.gov (United States)

1998-04-01

story are told. Terrorists have become skilled at cultivating 18 the " underdog " image and portraying their adversaries as ruthless aggressors...Frontiers, Israel’s War Against Terrorism, London: Arms and Armour Publications, 1990. Schmemann, Serge. " Netanyahu Defiantly Defending Botched

Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

1979-01-01

The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

Surgical resource utilization in urban terrorist bombing: a computer simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirshberg, A; Stein, M; Walden, R

1999-09-01

The objective of this study was to analyze the utilization of surgical staff and facilities during an urban terrorist bombing incident. A discrete-event computer model of the emergency room and related hospital facilities was constructed and implemented, based on cumulated data from 12 urban terrorist bombing incidents in Israel. The simulation predicts that the admitting capacity of the hospital depends primarily on the number of available surgeons and defines an optimal staff profile for surgeons, residents, and trauma nurses. The major bottlenecks in the flow of critical casualties are the shock rooms and the computed tomographic scanner but not the operating rooms. The simulation also defines the number of reinforcement staff needed to treat noncritical casualties and shows that radiology is the major obstacle to the flow of these patients. Computer simulation is an important new tool for the optimization of surgical service elements for a multiple-casualty situation.

[Treatment strategies for mass casualty incidents and terrorist attacks in trauma and vascular surgery : Presentation of a treatment concept].

Science.gov (United States)

Friemert, B; Franke, A; Bieler, D; Achatz, A; Hinck, D; Engelhardt, M

2017-10-01

The treatment of patients in the context of mass casualty incidents (MCI) represents a great challenge for the participating rescue workers and clinics. Due to the increase in terrorist activities it is necessary to become familiar with this new kind of threat to civilization with respect to the medical treatment of victims of terrorist attacks. There are substantial differences between a "normal" MCI and a terrorist MCI with respect to injury patterns (blunt trauma vs. penetrating/perforating trauma), the type and form of the incident (MCI=static situation vs. terrorist attack MCI= dynamic situation) and the different security positions (rescue services vs. police services). This article is concerned with question of which changes in the surgical treatment of patients are made necessary by these new challenges. In this case it is necessary that physicians are familiar with the different injury patterns, whereby priority must be given to gunshot and explosion (blast) injuries. Furthermore, altered strategic and tactical approaches (damage control surgery vs. tactical abbreviated surgical care) are necessary to ensure survival for as many victims of terrorist attacks as possible and also to achieve the best possible functional results. It is only possible to successfully counter these new challenges by changing the mindset in the treatment of terrorist MCI compared to MCI incidents. An essential component of this mindset is the acquisition of a maximum of flexibility. This article would like to make a contribution to this problem.

‘Let the Punishment Match the Offence’: Determining Sentences for Australian Terrorists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicola McGarrity

2013-04-01

Full Text Available To date, 38 men have been charged with terrorism offences in Australia. Twenty-six have been convicted. The article commences with an overview of the factual circumstances leading to these convictions. This provides important background for the following discussion of a largely unexplored issue in Australian anti-terrorism law and policy, namely, the difficulties faced by the Australian courts in adapting traditional sentencing principles to the (for the most part, preparatory terrorism offences enacted by the Commonwealth Parliament after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Of particular interest are how the courts determine the objective seriousness of these offences and the respective weight placed upon deterrence (both specific and general and the rehabilitation of convicted terrorists.

FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OF THE STATE POLICY FOR THE PREVENTION OF TERRORIST ACTS IN UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mykola Bunchuk

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The article’s objective is to determine the mechanism for implementing the financial instruments of the state policy to counter terrorist acts in the territory not controlled by Ukrainian authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Methodology. Within the scientific research, for the most effective approaches at the national level to prevent the threat of international terrorism, under the conditions of the deep internal political crisis and extremely difficult economic situation, in order to improve the efficiency of public administration in developing and implementing the anti-terrorism state policies in Ukraine, the paper analyses international and domestic regulations on preventing the terrorist financing, considers factors that affect the deterioration of the social and economic situation of the temporarily occupied parts of Donbas. Results of the research allow formulating the definition of financial instruments of antiterrorist policies, the paper develops and proposes a series of organizational measures in order to prevent the terrorist financing in Ukraine. Practical implications. Based on the above, we propose an option of classification of main illegal mechanisms that may be used to finance terrorist activities in the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions uncontrolled by Ukrainian authorities, dividing them into internal and external. Given the above studied factors and classification of financing of terrorist acts in eastern Ukraine, we can assume that for the purpose of evading duty payable to relevant state bodies of Ukraine, external supplies of inventories in the uncontrolled areas of the Donetsk region, which are later obtained by illegal armed groups, are possibly carried out as follows: on behalf of a commercial entity registered in a foreign country for the Ukrainian commercial entity, registered in settlements located in the uncontrolled territory; crossing of international transit traffic that moves through the

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Near-space airships against terrorist activities

Science.gov (United States)

Kesenek, Ceylan

2014-06-01

Near-space is a region surrounding the earth which is too dense for a satellite to fly and also too thin for air breathing vehicles to fly. The near-space region which is located between 65,000 and 325,000 feet is really underutilized despite its unique potential. Near-Space airships can be used to exploit the potential of near space. Such a system can supply not only a great deal of information using ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) sensors on board but also serve as a communication/data relay. Airships used in near space can cover a very wide footprint area for surveillance missions. Free of orbital mechanics these near-space assets can continue its mission for long period of time with a persistence of days and months. These assets can provide persistent intelligence for fight against terrorist activities. Terrorism is a non-state threat and doesn't have a static hierarchical structure. To fight against such an adversary an overwhelming intelligence activity must be applied. Therefore, intelligence collection and surveillance missions play a vital role in counter terrorism. Terrorists use asymmetric means of threat that require information superiority. In this study exploitation of near space by airships is analyzed for fight against terrorism. Near-space airships are analyzed according to the operational effectiveness, logistic structure and cost. Advantages and disadvantages of airships are argued in comparison with satellites and airplanes. As a result, by bridging the gap between the air and space, nearspace airships are considered to be the most important asset of warfighter especially with its operational effectiveness.

Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, W.L.

1976-01-01

Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The game-theoretic national interstate economic model : an integrated framework to quantify the economic impacts of cyber-terrorist behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

This study suggests an integrated framework to quantify cyber attack impacts on the U.S. airport security system. A cyber attack by terrorists on the U.S. involves complex : strategic behavior by the terrorists because they could plan to invade an ai...

Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

OpenAIRE

Pei Pei

2010-01-01

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hudson, Rex A

1999-01-01

...) and the new recruitment patterns of some groups, such as recruiting suicide commandos, female and child terrorists, and scientists capable of developing weapons of mass destruction, provide a measure...

Can a Copycat Effect be Observed in Terrorist Suicide Attacks?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Farnham, N.T.; Liem, M.C.A.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore how a copycat effect – established within the field of suicide studies – may manifest itself in terrorist suicide attacks, and takes an exploratory approach in evaluating the prospect of incorporating open-data resources in future counter-terrorism research.

The Effect Terrorist Labels Have on Military Operations

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-17

Department until 2008.44 Nelson Mandela , the renowned member of the ANC and Nobel Prize laureate, became president of South Africa in 1994 and is...celebrated internationally as one of the most prolific and revolutionary leaders of the 20th century. Mandela received all these awards and accolades—many...models or key players during 44 Mimi Hall, "U.S. has Mandela on Terrorist List," USA Today, http

Estimating Risk Parameters

OpenAIRE

Aswath Damodaran

1999-01-01

Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

Public health preparedness and response to a radiological terrorist attack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, Ichiro

2016-01-01

Given the potential for intentional malevolent acts, the security of radioactive sources should be ensured. In the event of a terrorist attack using a radioactive source, we should care not only about health concerns of victims, especially including first responders who suffer from radiation injury, but also public health activities with affected people during the long recovery phase. Regarding the radiological public health viewpoint, preventive efforts are also important. In fact, regulatory reform is progressing in Japan according to the code of conduct issued by IAEA. One of the difficulties of countermeasures for the security of radioactive sources in Japan is to establish a disposal facility for disused sealed radioactive sources, since radioactive waste has been additionally a point of contention in society since the nuclear disaster. This paper presents an overview of countermeasures for terrorist attacks using a radioactive source, from the viewpoint of public health in Japan including the results of survey targeted hospitals equipped with blood irradiation machines. (author)

Terror i tvillingtårnene – dystopi og ironi? 9/11 i Darlah og En terrorist i senga

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lersbryggen Mørk, Kjersti

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Terror in the Twin Towers – dystopia and irony? 9/11 in Darlah and En terrorist i senga. Through globalization of our media society, children as well as adults are endlessly exposed to information and images from all over the world. In Norway, signs of the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in USA on September 11th 2001 are now to be found in literature for children and young adults. With globalization theory and post-colonial theory I will examine how two novels present global challenges in general and 9/11 in particular. What does globalization mean for the construction of identity? Who are “we”, and who are “the others”? The novel for young adults, Darlah – 172 timer på månen [Darlah – 172 hours on the moon] (2008 by Johan Harstad, is a dystopia where 9/11 points forward to a full scale catastrophe for humanity. En terrorist i senga [There's a terrorist in my bed] (2008, a novel for children by Endre Lund Eriksen, makes explicit references to 9/11 – but with playfulness and ironic revelation of xenophobia. Both books use aliens from outer space as “the other”, but where Darlah presents a pessimistic view of our global future, En terrorist i senga is optimistic on behalf of the humankind.

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

Science.gov (United States)

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

2011-08-15

Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

2011-01-01

Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

The Rise and the Fall of Terrorist Organizations in Post-Dictatorial Greece: The Role and the Lessons for the Intelligence Services

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Fakitsas, Miltiadis

2003-01-01

The Greek government unsuccessfully battled leftist terrorist groups from 1975 to 2002, The two most notorious terrorist organizations during this period were the "November 17" group and another group...

Do terrorist attacks affect ethnic discrimination in the labour market? Evidence from two randomized field experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth; Chan, Tak Wing; Ugreninov, Elisabeth; Midtbøen, Arnfinn H; Rogstad, Jon

2018-01-24

Terrorist attacks are known to influence public opinion. But do they also change behaviour? We address this question by comparing the results of two identical randomized field experiments on ethnic discrimination in hiring that we conducted in Oslo. The first experiment was conducted before the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway; the second experiment was conducted after the attacks. In both experiments, applicants with a typical Pakistani name were significantly less likely to get a job interview compared to those with a typical Norwegian name. But the ethnic gap in call-back rates were very similar in the two experiments. Thus, Pakistanis in Norway still experienced the same level of discrimination, despite claims that Norwegians have become more positive about migrants after the far-right, anti-migrant terrorist attacks of 2011. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2018.

Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, S.

1984-04-01

Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

Changing the story the role of the narrative in the success or failure of terrorist groups

OpenAIRE

Mellen, Brian C.

2009-01-01

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited This thesis focuses on the nexus between a terrorist group's narrative and the group's success or failure in achieving its strategic goals. This work theorizes that the interaction of competing narratives exerts a systematic impact on the ability of the terrorist group to achieve its strategic goals through the influence that the narratives have over a group's members, the group's adversary, and the affected population. Although a te...

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

MOTIVATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUNGSTERS INVOLVED INTO TERRORIST OPERATION

OpenAIRE

Beslan Alexeyevich Tarchokov

2015-01-01

The paper made an attempt to explore preconditions, motives, reasons and factors capable of facilitating youth’ involvement into terrorist operations, emergence of youth terrorism and its spreading around, including the specifics of social and economic domains, of ideology and politics, psychology and law, etc. all of them taken on the scene of nowadays globalized society. Specifying in greater detail the causes and circumstances that contributed to involvement of young Russians into terroris...

A review of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-06-01

Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

2006-01-01

Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

Risk perception, experience, and objective risk: a cross-national study with European emergency survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Knuth, Daniela; Kehl, Doris; Hulse, Lynn; Schmidt, Silke

2014-07-01

Understanding public risk perceptions and their underlying processes is important in order to learn more about the way people interpret and respond to hazardous emergency events. Direct experience with an involuntary hazard has been found to heighten the perceived risk of experiencing the same hazard and its consequences in the future, but it remains unclear if cross-over effects are possible (i.e., experience with one hazard influencing perceived risk for other hazards also). Furthermore, the impact of objective risk and country of residence on perceived risk is not well understood. As part of the BeSeCu (Behavior, Security, and Culture) Project, a sample of 1,045 survivors of emergencies from seven European countries (i.e., Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Italy) was drawn. Results revealed heightened perceived risk for emergency events (i.e., domestic and public fires, earthquakes, floods, and terrorist attacks) when the event had been experienced previously plus some evidence of cross-over effects, although these effects were not so strong. The largest country differences in perceived risk were observed for earthquakes, but this effect was significantly reduced by taking into account the objective earthquake risk. For fires, floods, terrorist attacks, and traffic accidents, only small country differences in perceived risk were found. Further studies including a larger number of countries are welcomed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improving Local and State Agency Response to Terrorist Incidents Involving Biological Weapons

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2003-01-01

.... Because of multiple terrorist acts such as the September II, 2001 attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center, as well as anthrax contaminated mail and the Oklahoma City bombing, there is a...

Estimation, assessment and management of risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

2005-01-01

After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

Detection of Hidden Hostile/Terrorist Groups in Harsh Territories by Using Animals as Mobile Biological Sensors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Yasar Guneri; Ercan, Tuncay

2008-07-25

Terrorism is the greatest threat to national security and cannot be defeated by conventional military force alone. In critical areas such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey, regular forces cannot reach these hostile/terrorist groups, the instigators of terrorism. These groups have a clear understanding of the relative ineffectiveness of counter-guerrilla operations and rely on guerrilla warfare to avoid major combat as their primary means of continuing the conflict with the governmental structures. In Internal Security Operations, detection of terrorist and hostile groups in their hiding places such as caves, lairs, etc. can only be achieved by professionally trained people such as Special Forces or intelligence units with the necessary experience and tools suitable for collecting accurate information in these often harsh, rugged and mountainous countries. To assist these forces, commercial micro-sensors with wireless interfaces could be utilized to study and monitor a variety of phenomena and environments from a certain distance for military purposes. In order to locate hidden terrorist groups and enable more effective use of conventional military resources, this paper proposes an active remote sensing model implanted into animals capable of living in these environments. By using these mobile sensor devices, improving communications for data transfer from the source, and developing better ways to monitor and detect threats, terrorist ability to carry out attacks can be severely disrupted.

Detection of Hidden Hostile/Terrorist Groups in Harsh Territories by Using Animals as Mobile Biological Sensors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuncay Ercan

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Terrorism is the greatest threat to national security and cannot be defeated by conventional military force alone. In critical areas such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey, regular forces cannot reach these hostile/terrorist groups, the instigators of terrorism. These groups have a clear understanding of the relative ineffectiveness of counter-guerrilla operations and rely on guerrilla warfare to avoid major combat as their primary means of continuing the conflict with the governmental structures. In Internal Security Operations, detection of terrorist and hostile groups in their hiding places such as caves, lairs, etc. can only be achieved by professionally trained people such as Special Forces or intelligence units with the necessary experience and tools suitable for collecting accurate information in these often harsh, rugged and mountainous countries. To assist these forces, commercial micro-sensors with wireless interfaces could be utilized to study and monitor a variety of phenomena and environments from a certain distance for military purposes. In order to locate hidden terrorist groups and enable more effective use of conventional military resources, this paper proposes an active remote sensing model implanted into animals capable of living in these environments. By using these mobile sensor devices, improving communications for data transfer from the source, and developing better ways to monitor and detect threats, terrorist ability to carry out attacks can be severely disrupted.

Suits Against Terrorist States by Victims of Terrorism

Science.gov (United States)

2008-05-01

Nat’l City Bank v. Banco Para El Comercio Exterior de Cuba, 462 U.S. 611 (1983) (“Bancec”) to judgments against designated terrorist States. Bancec held...to determine both whether an exception to the Cuban Government’s immunity from garnishment also applies to [ Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba, S.A...was eventually reversed on other grounds by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit — Alejandre v. Telefonica Larga Distancia de Puerto Rico

Terrorist Threats in the Basque Country: its Impact on the Psychosocial Sphere of Victims

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Martín-Peña

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The ceasefire of armed activities announced by ETA (Basque Homeland and Freedom in 2011 has fostered a debate about the violence and the victims of the terrorist organization. During those years, the violence perpetrated by ETA was characterized by bomb attacks and assassinations. In addition to this blatant violent behavior, a low-intensity violence was also taking place in the Basque Country, consisting of terrorist threats against their targets. There is, however, a lack of evidence-based research into this phenomenon. This investigation studies the impact of terrorist threats on the psychosocial functioning of people threatened by ETA in the Basque Country. Seventy-six people targeted by ETA completed self-reported survey. Terrorist threats and their derived psychosocial consequences were assessed by this way. The findings point out a relationship between terrorist threats and their psychosocial effects, which greatly affected the immediate environment of the targets too. The implications of these findings are discussed. El cese de la actividad armada anunciado por ETA (Euskadi ta Askatasuna – Euskadi y Libertad en 2011 ha promovido un debate sobre la violencia y las víctimas de la organización terrorista. Durante esos años, la violencia perpetrada por ETA se caracterizó por ataques con bombas y asesinatos. Además de este comportamiento claramente violento, en el País Vasco también se estaba produciendo una violencia de baja intensidad, consistente en amenazas terroristas contra sus objetivos. Sin embargo, no hay una investigación basada en la evidencia sobre este fenómeno. Esta investigación estudia el impacto de las amenazas terroristas en el funcionamiento psicosocial de las personas amenazadas por ETA en el País Vasco. Setenta y seis personas amenazadas por ETA completaron una encuesta de autoevaluación. Se evaluaron de esta forma las amenazas terroristas y sus consecuencias psicosociales derivadas. Los resultados indicaron

Radiological risk assessment for an urban area: Focusing on a drinking water contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Hyo-Joon; Hwang, Won-Tae; Kim, Eun-Han; Han, Moon-Hee

2009-01-01

This paper specifically discusses a water quality modeling and health risk assessment for cesium-137 to assess the potential and actual effects on human health from drinking water contaminated by a radiological terrorist attack in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. With respect to the source term caused by a terrorist attack, it was assumed that 50 TBq of cesium-137 was introduced into the Paldang Lake which is a single water resource for the Seoul metropolitan area. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to calculate the hydrodynamic and water quality for the model domain, Paldang Lake. Mortality risk and morbid risk coefficients caused by the ingestion of tap water were used to assess a human health risk due to cesium-137. The transport of cesium-137 in the Paldang water system was mainly dependent on the flow streamlines and the effect of the dilution from the other branches. The mortality and morbidity risks due to the drinking water contamination by cesium-137 were 4.77 x 10 -7 and 6.92 x 10 -7 , respectively. Accordingly, it is very important to take appropriate countermeasures when radiological terrorist attacks have occurred at water resources to prevent radiological risks by radionuclides.

Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.

1989-01-01

It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

1982-01-01

The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

Risk assessment as rhetorical practice: The ironic mathematics behind terrorism, banking, and public policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Danisch, Robert

2013-02-01

The twin problems of possible terrorist attacks and a global economic recession have been, and continue to be, critical components of contemporary political culture. At the center of both problems is the assessment of future risk. To calculate the probability that a loan will default or to estimate the likelihood of an act of bioterrorism crippling an American city is to engage in the quantitative science of risk assessment. The process of risk assessment is an attempt to rationalize the uncertainty and contingency of the future. In this essay, I read risk assessments made by the Department of Homeland Security and by major banks during the recent financial collapse as examples of rhetorical practice. As such, I show the rhetorical form and function of risk assessments in order to determine the effect that they have on contemporary political culture.

Scientific Support of Terrorist Actions by Commercial Grey Area Literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katzung, W.

2007-01-01

The publication of the Al-Quaida handbook and time and time again notes of the possibility for getting special scientific knowledge from the internet have decreased the attention for an other important source of scientific support for terrorist education and/or actions. This is the commercial available and distributed grey area literature provided by a huge amount of (book) sellers and publishing houses. Most of this literature (hard copies and CDs) with dangerous subject matter is published in the US and may be ordered fast and with low costs using the internet. This kind of support for real and potential terrorists stands strongly in contradiction to the official policy and the 'unconditional' war against terrorism. With the presented poster the above described problem should be a little bit put in the focus of the CBMTS community and so to the authorities, too. By means of selected examples from different branches, such as Narcotics, Explosives, unusual Killing Methods, special Poisons / Toxins and, last not least, CW agents inclusive application methods and devices the highly charged situation is tried to shown. (author)

Underlying Reasons for Success and Failure of Terrorist Attacks: Selected Case Studies

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

McCleskey, Edward; McCord, Diana; Leetz, Jennifer; Markey, John

2007-01-01

.... This is the second of a two-phased effort: Phase I focused on assessing the underlying reasons for the success and failure of terrorist attacks against targets within the United States and against U.S. interests abroad...

Post-traumatic stress reactions following the March 11, 2004 terrorist attacks in a Madrid community sample: a cautionary note about the measurement of psychological trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Vázquez, Carmelo; Pérez-Sales, Pau; Matt, Georg

2006-05-01

Posttraumatic stress reactions related to the Madrid March 11, 2004, terrorist attacks were examined in a sample of Madrid residents (N = 503) 18-25 days after the attacks, using multiple diagnostic criteria and different cut-off scores. Based on the symptoms covered by the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian (PCL-C; Weathers, Litz, Herman, Huska, and Keane, 1993), rates of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) ranged from 3.4% to 13.3%. Taking into account additional criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (American Psychiatric Association, 200; i.e., the impact of initial reaction and problems in daily functioning as a consequence of the traumatic event), only 1.9% of respondents reported probable PTSD. These results suggest that inferences about the impact of traumatic events on the general population are strongly influenced by the definition of traumatic response. Our findings also revealed that the magnitude of posttraumatic reactions is associated with several risk factors, including living close to the attacked locations, physical proximity to the attacks when they occurred, perception of one's life being at risk, intensity of initial emotional reactions, and being a daily user of the attacked train lines. The use of different cut-off scores did not affect the pattern of risk to develop traumatic stress. The implications of these results for public health policies related to terrorist attacks are discussed.

Effectiveness of Using Red-Teams to Identify Maritime Security Vulnerabilities to Terrorist Attack

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Culpepper, Anna

2004-01-01

.... Moreover, there have been no attacks on homeland U.S. targets since September 11. The red team concept provides an innovative method to examine these vulnerabilities from the terrorist perspective...

Breaching the Fortress Wall. Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-01

that affect, in overlapping ways, sequential parts of the terrorist activity chain (Figure 1.2). The purposes of each of these types of technologies...fication lineup .51 The ways in which PIRA chose to manage operations also contrib- uted to its overall counterforensic effort. For example, although

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation : A Data-Driven Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuurman, B.W.; Bakker, E.; Gill, P.; Bouhana, N.

2017-01-01

This article provides an in-depth assessment of lone actor terrorists’ attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre-attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open-source materials and complemented

Analysing Personal Characteristics of Lone-Actor Terrorists : Research Findings and Recommendations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roy, de van Zuijdewijn J.; Bakker, E.

2016-01-01

This Research Note presents the outcome of a project that looked at the personal characteristics of lone-actor terrorists. It is part of the larger Countering Lone-Actor Terrorism (CLAT) project. The project described here aimed to improve understanding of, and responses to, the phenomenon of

The Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: (Interrelations, Motives & Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Romagnoli

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The article aims at explaining the relationship between terrorism and tourism, and the consequences that the former has on the latter. Untangling this relationship may be a useful tool to understand terrorist goals and motives. The pivotal question to be answered is which effects terrorism has on the tourism industry. In the modern era, terrorism has become an integrated risk, a maybe-to-include package of travelling for tourists. The operating environment for the tourism sector evolved in a huge way after the attacks to the Twin Towers in September of 2001. Terrorism and tourism data have become more and more important since that dramatic episode; both of them are twofold and interconnected with regard to their basic features, namely crossing national borders involving national and international protagonists and both using travel and communication technologies. Terrorists do not act randomly, but they have precise purposes. The article will explain the multiform and multifold ways through which an attack may occur and be better understood. Terrorism crowds the media; it physically hits and psychologically vexes minds. Tourists are an appealing target for terrorists because they are seen as a country’s symbolic ambassadors, while tourism destinations are perfect and visible spots to deploy a terrorist attack. Terrorists are capable of using tourists as the means to get the media’s attention and bombard the world with their message. Risk perception, attitude and preferences are one of the main determinants for a tourist in the destination choice momentum. A potential tourist who negatively conceives a destination as risky may choose to cancel his/her holiday or not even consider it because of security and safety motives.

Reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hibbs, R.

2005-01-01

Full text: The March 2005 'International conference on nuclear security, global directions for the future' noted that nuclear terrorism is one of the greatest threats to society. Eminent members of a multi-national panel stated that there is no one principal activity to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and that a combination of activities is required. This paper seeks to identify those activities by analyzing the elements that comprise the risk of nuclear terrorism. For the purpose of the analysis, risk is the product of the probability of a terrorist attack (A p ), the success of a terrorist act (S p ) and the consequence (C) of the attack: R=A p * S p * C. The paper examines each of these three elements of risk with the objective of identifying what we are doing and what else we could be doing to reduce risk. It takes into consideration some historic catastrophes, examines how they might have been prevented or their consequences reduced, and if there are lessons that are applicable to reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. The paper demonstrates that we have concentrated on only one of the three elements of risk and offer suggestions for diminishing the risk of nuclear terrorism by addressing all the elements. (author)

Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne MacKay

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

75 FR 75904 - Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations; Terrorism Sanctions Regulations; Foreign Terrorist...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-07

... Terrorism Sanctions Regulations; Terrorism Sanctions Regulations; Foreign Terrorist Organizations Sanctions... Foreign Assets Control (``OFAC'') of the U.S. Department of the Treasury is amending the Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations (``GTSR'') and the Terrorism Sanctions Regulations (``TSR'') to expand the scope of...

New risk estimates at low doses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fry, R.J.M.

1992-01-01

The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

Methods to estimate the genetic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehling, U.H.

1989-01-01

The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

Media participation and mental health in terrorist attack survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Thoresen, Siri; Jensen, Tine K; Dyb, Grete

2014-12-01

Terrorism and disasters receive massive media attention, and victims are often approached by reporters. Not much is known about how terror and disaster victims perceive the contact with media and whether such experiences influence mental health. In this study, we describe how positive and negative experiences with media relate to posttraumatic stress (PTS) reactions among survivors of the 2011 Utøya Island terrorist attack in Norway. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 285 survivors (47.0% female and 53.0% male) 14-15 months after the terrorist attack. Most survivors were approached by reporters (94%), and participated in media interviews (88%). The majority of survivors evaluated their media contact and participation as positive, and media participation was unrelated to PTS reactions. Survivors who found media participation distressing had more PTS reactions (quite distressing: B = 0.440, extremely distressing: B = 0.611, p = .004 in adjusted model). Perceiving media participation as distressing was slightly associated with lower levels of social support (r = -.16, p = .013), and regretting media participation was slightly associated with feeling let down (r = .18, p = .004). Reporters should take care when interviewing victims, and clinicians should be aware of media exposure as a potential additional strain on victims. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

2000-03-01

A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

Terrorist threat and perceived Islamic support for terrorist attacks as predictors of personal and institutional out-group discrimination and support for anti-immigration policies: evidence from 9 European countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doosje, B.; Zimmermann, A.; Küpper, B.; Zick, A.; Meertens, R.

2009-01-01

Traditionally, research has shown that subtle and blatant prejudices are important predictors of out-group discrimination and support for anti-immigration policies. The present paper shows that, when controlling for these types of prejudices and for political conservatism, terrorist threat and

Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2009-01-01

Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

1981-09-01

This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

Transition from Terrorist Event Management to Consequence Management, Executive Summary

Science.gov (United States)

1982-03-31

hUMIEe " BDM/W-82-l1 5-TR AUTO11(o 1. CONTR ACT OR GRANT NumURe) J. C. Evanis, M. K. Pilgrim, C. J. Potter EMW-C-0744 9. PER•O^•ING ORGANIZATIN NAME...should, and is expected to, provide leadership in this regard. There exists a variety of experience and planning for responding to terrorist events. The

Residual risk over-estimated

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Terrorists on Trial: A Performative Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatrice de Graaf

2011-03-01

Full Text Available On 30 March 2011, ICCT organised an Expert Meeting entitled “Terrorism Trials as Theatre: A Performative Perspective”. The Expert Meeting applied a performative perspective to three well known and recent trials in different parts of the world: the trials against the Dutch Hofstad Group, the Mumbai 2008 Terrorist Attack Trial and the Guantanamo Military Tribunals. As such, the Expert Meeting did not concentrate solely on the immediate judicial performance of the magistrates and/or the defence; instead, the trials were put in their wider sociological context, adopting notions of social drama and communication sciences. This Expert Meeting Paper is a further adaptation of the Discussion Paper that was used as basis for debate during the Meeting.

Social categorization and fear reactions to the September 11th terrorist attacks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dumont, M.; Yzerbyt, V.Y.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.; Gordijn, E.H.

2003-01-01

Two experiments were run in The Netherlands and Belgium 1 week after the terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001. The aim was to investigate whether social categorization affected emotional reactions, behavioral tendencies, and actual behaviors. Results

Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

1984-01-01

No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

Is magnetic resonance imaging safe for patients with retained metal fragments from combat and terrorist attacks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eshed, Iris; Kushnir, Tamar; Shabshin, Noga; Konen, Eli

2010-01-01

Background: Increasing numbers of military confrontations and terrorist attacks have led to increasing reports of retained metal fragments among patients referred for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The potential hazard of retained metal fragments for patients undergoing MRI has been studied among patients with retained metal fragments from domestic violence but not from combat and terrorist attacks. Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate the safety of MRI in patients with subcutaneous warfare-metal fragments. Material and Methods: 10,322 consecutive metal screening forms of patients scheduled for 1.5 Tesla (T) MR examination were retrospectively reviewed. All patients reported to have retained metal fragments were contacted by telephone and asked to describe the event in which they were exposed to the fragments and for any adverse sequelae or sensations during and after MRI. Their radiographs were evaluated for the number and size of the fragments. The data were analyzed for correlations between these factors. Results: Seven of the 24 patients who reported retained metal fragments were excluded, since there was no validating evidence of their presence. Fragments in the remaining 17 patients (18 MRI examinations) were inflicted by military or terrorist attacks that occurred 2-39 years prior to the MRI. The fragment size ranged between 1 and 10 mm. One patient reported a superficial migration of a 10-mm fragment after MRI. No other adverse reactions were reported. Conclusion: Conducting 1.5T MRI examinations is safe in patients with retained metal fragments from combat and terrorist attacks not in the vicinity of vital organs. However, caution is advised.

Is magnetic resonance imaging safe for patients with retained metal fragments from combat and terrorist attacks?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eshed, Iris; Kushnir, Tamar; Shabshin, Noga; Konen, Eli (Dept. of Diagnostic Imaging, Sheba Medical center, Tel Hashomer, Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv (Israel)), e-mail: iris.eshed@sheba.health.gov.il

2010-03-15

Background: Increasing numbers of military confrontations and terrorist attacks have led to increasing reports of retained metal fragments among patients referred for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The potential hazard of retained metal fragments for patients undergoing MRI has been studied among patients with retained metal fragments from domestic violence but not from combat and terrorist attacks. Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate the safety of MRI in patients with subcutaneous warfare-metal fragments. Material and Methods: 10,322 consecutive metal screening forms of patients scheduled for 1.5 Tesla (T) MR examination were retrospectively reviewed. All patients reported to have retained metal fragments were contacted by telephone and asked to describe the event in which they were exposed to the fragments and for any adverse sequelae or sensations during and after MRI. Their radiographs were evaluated for the number and size of the fragments. The data were analyzed for correlations between these factors. Results: Seven of the 24 patients who reported retained metal fragments were excluded, since there was no validating evidence of their presence. Fragments in the remaining 17 patients (18 MRI examinations) were inflicted by military or terrorist attacks that occurred 2-39 years prior to the MRI. The fragment size ranged between 1 and 10 mm. One patient reported a superficial migration of a 10-mm fragment after MRI. No other adverse reactions were reported. Conclusion: Conducting 1.5T MRI examinations is safe in patients with retained metal fragments from combat and terrorist attacks not in the vicinity of vital organs. However, caution is advised.

Iraagi väitel tuleb iga teine terrorist Süüriast / Igor Taro

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Taro, Igor

2007-01-01

Bagdadis elurajooni turul hukkus enesetapurünnakus 130 inimest. Iraagi kõrge valitsusametniku sõnul tuleb 50% terrorist üle Süüria piiri. Iraagi peaminister Nuri al-Maliki arvamus. Vt. samas: Mässulised leiavad tuge internetist

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Trash can bomb can fall into the hands of terrorists

CERN Multimedia

2001-01-01

Leading scientists from CERN described how if terrorists were able to get their hands on plutonium or uranium, they would be able to manufacture a 'trash can' nuclear bomb simply by inserting the radioactive material into a normal bomb. Once detonated a large area could be contaminated leading to the immediate deaths of many with many more future casualties due to cancers caused by the radiation.

Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

1990-01-01

Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dankar Fida

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why?

Science.gov (United States)

1999-09-01

for School Killers,” New York Times, June 21, 1999, A10. Della Porta, Donatella. “ Political Socialization in Left-Wing Underground Organizations...Newsletter of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers, 22, No. 1, 1997. Wasmund, Klaus. “The Political Socialization of West German Terrorists.” In

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere P Simarro

Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

2011-01-01

Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

An Estimation of a Nonlinear Dynamic Process Using Latent Class Extended Mixed Models: Affect Profiles After Terrorist Attacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Burro, Roberto; Raccanello, Daniela; Pasini, Margherita; Brondino, Margherita

2018-01-01

Conceptualizing affect as a complex nonlinear dynamic process, we used latent class extended mixed models (LCMM) to understand whether there were unobserved groupings in a dataset including longitudinal measures. Our aim was to identify affect profiles over time in people vicariously exposed to terrorism, studying their relations with personality traits. The participants were 193 university students who completed online measures of affect during the seven days following two terrorist attacks (Paris, November 13, 2015; Brussels, March 22, 2016); Big Five personality traits; and antecedents of affect. After selecting students whose negative affect was influenced by the two attacks (33%), we analysed the data with the LCMM package of R. We identified two affect profiles, characterized by different trends over time: The first profile comprised students with lower positive affect and higher negative affect compared to the second profile. Concerning personality traits, conscientious-ness was lower for the first profile compared to the second profile, and vice versa for neuroticism. Findings are discussed for both their theoretical and applied relevance.

Radiological preparedness in the case of a terrorist attack or an accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cizmek, A.

2005-01-01

During the Cold War, every information about weapons of mass destruction was treated as top secret, regardless of whether the information concerned friend or foe. The most serious threat in our post Cold War era are terrorist radiological dispersal devices. Dirty nukes are what you may choose to build if you're unable to create a real nuclear bomb, i.e. one whose explosion is based on a nuclear reaction. A dirty bomb is a conventional explosive salted with radioactive isotopes in order to spew out that nuclear material and contaminate a wide area. The military usefulness of such devices have always been in dispute. In fact, the TNT in such a bomb may still be more dangerous than the nuclear material. Its destructive power would really depend on the size of the conventional bomb, and the volume and nature of nuclear material. This paper addresses the possibilities of decontamination and preparedness in the case of a terrorist attack or accident.(author)

Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huda, W.; He, W.

2012-01-01

The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

2010-01-01

Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-11-01

To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

A New Forensic Picture Polygraph Technique for Terrorist and Crime Deception System

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, R. H. Brian; Axton, JoAnn; Gold, Karen L.

2006-01-01

The Forensic Terrorist Detection System called Pinocchio Assessment Profile (PAP) employs standard issue polygraphs for a non-verbal picture technique originated as a biofeedback careers interest instrument. The system can be integrated readily into airport screening protocols. However, the method does not rely on questioning or foreign language…

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro

1981-01-01

The genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemia significant dose (LSD) and malignancy significant dose (MSD) from medical diagnostic X-ray examinations in Japan were estimated based on a 1979 nationwide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The population risk estimates were carried out using the resultant values of GSD, LSD and MSD. In the risk estimates, the significant factors, namely, the relative child expectancy, the leukemia significant factor and the malignancy significant factor, for patients were assumed to be same as those of general population. The risk factors used were 185 x 10 -6 rad -1 for genetic risk of all generations, 20 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal leukemia and 165 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal malignant diseases, respectively. The resultant annual population doses per person were 15 mrad (0.15 mGy) for GSD, 107 mrad (1.07 mGy) for CMD, 86 mrad (0.86 mGy) for LSD and 43 mrad (0.43 mGy) for MSD, respectively. The present data other than the MSD were compared with the data in 1960, 1969 and 1974. For example, the GSD of 1979 was approximately same as that of 1974, although the annual number of examinations in 1979 increased by about 30 percent as compared with those of 1974. The population risks from X-ray diagnosis were estimated to be 260 persons per year for genetic risk of all generations, 192 person per year for fatal leukemic risk and 825 person per year for malignant risk, respectively, for the whole population in Japan, assuming that the X-ray diagnosis in 1979 will be performed continuously in the future. The average risks per one exposure for X-ray radiography were estimated using the weighted average of the significant factor and the organ or tissue dose with the number of radiographic exposures by age and by type of examination. The average risks per radiographic exposure were 176 x 10 -9 for genetic risk, 285 x 10 -9 for leukemic risk and 1.75 x 10 -6 for malignant risk respectively. (author)

MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radik B. Begov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

Conceptualizing Terrorist Violence and Suicide Bombing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murad Ismayilov

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents an analysis of different approaches to terrorist violence, with a particular focus on suicide terrorism, using the above mentioned levels of analysis as a conceptual framework to organize this study. In doing so, the article focuses primarily on four selected studies: Khashan's theory of collective Palestinian frustration operating at individual and structural levels; Pape's strategic theory of suicide terrorism, Devji's notion of global jihad, and Hammes' conceptualization of suicide terrorism as one of the strategies of Fourth Generation Warfare, all studied at a strategic level. Drawing on these analyses, as well as on Tilly, this article attempts to address the question of whether suicide terrorism represents a "coherent phenomenon," and whether there is, or may be, a generalized pattern which could account for all possible causes of martyrdom operations.

Playing the villain : understanding the punishment and portrayal of terrorists

OpenAIRE

Spens, Christiana

2017-01-01

Playing the Villain argues that the portrayal and punishment of terrorists in the Western media perpetuates colonialist attitudes, due to the visual connections between these modern images and past or fictional representations of iconic, punished villains. A theory of scapegoating related to intervisuality supports this argument, by explaining that as a ritual dependent on and developed by cultural history and mythology, scapegoating requires engagement with recognisable visual motifs that...

Have the Mexican Drug Cartels Evolved into a Terrorist Insurgency?

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-14

individual police officers and journalists.55 Originally, the Gulf Cartel recruited them from Mexico’s Special Operations Forces, known as Grupo Aeromóvil de ...fluid situation surrounding the Mexican drug war has led to much speculation about how to classify the powerful drug cartels conducting it. There is... conducting it. There is literature debating whether the cartels are merely a criminal enterprise or whether the cartels represent a new terrorist

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Developing Health-Based Pre-Planning Clearance Goals for Airport Remediation Following Chemical Terrorist Attack: Introduction and Key Assessment Considerations

OpenAIRE

Watson, Annetta; Hall, Linda; Raber, Ellen; Hauschild, Veronique D.; Dolislager, Fredrick; Love, Adam H.; Hanna, M. Leslie

2011-01-01

In the event of a chemical terrorist attack on a transportation hub, post-event remediation and restoration activities necessary to attain unrestricted facility reuse and re-entry could require hours to multiple days. While restoration timeframes are dependent on numerous variables, a primary controlling factor is the level of pre-planning and decision-making completed prior to chemical terrorist release. What follows is the first of a two-part analysis identifying key considerations, critica...

Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolphin, G.W.

1979-01-01

The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

CAROLIN GOERZIG. TALKING TO TERRORISTS: CONCESSIONS AND THE RENUNCIATION OF VIOLENCE. REVIEWED BY: SCOTT NICHOLAS ROMANIUK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Nicholas Romaniuk

2016-03-01

Full Text Available “Talking to terrorists remains a taboo” (Goerzig, 2010: p. 125. The adoption and reinforcement of such a moral position by many Western and non-Western governments alike has played no small role in, to a large extent, states to contain the violence and insecurity bred by terror activist in the post-Cold war and post-9/11 periods. Yet, few policymakers seem to recognize the danger in building political and social environments in which dialogue between states and terrorist groups and organizations is little more than depravity or even a betrayal to entire populations. To be sure, the protection of civilian populations has been entrusted to states that might otherwise learn better means of terrorism deterrence if lines of communication between states and terrorists were less constrained. The taboo of which Carolin Goerzig speaks, is one that “has been institutionalized in a legal framework in which … academics are being asked to report on their students and in which attempting to understand the subjectivities of ‘terrorist’ suspects could be interpreted as a ‘glorification of terrorism’” (Jackson quoted in Goerzig, 2010: p. 125.

Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

Science.gov (United States)

Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

2014-02-01

Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

1989-10-01

Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

2015-01-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

2015-01-01

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

Overview of the terrorist threat to international peace and security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, P.

2001-01-01

This contribution deals with the implications of terrorism for international peace and security and the escalation to mass terrorism. The topics covered are: impact of the latest terrorist events on the United States, impact on the international community; illegitimacy of terrorism; need for global action; the role of the united Nations; the crucial role for disarmament and counter-proliferation activities, especially in finding means of enhancing the security of materials that could easily be misused

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

2016-01-01

Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-01-01

Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

Authoritarian reactions to terrorist threat: who is being threatened, the Me or the We?

Science.gov (United States)

Asbrock, Frank; Fritsche, Immo

2013-01-01

Endorsement of authoritarian attitudes has been observed to increase under conditions of terrorist threat. However, it is not clear whether this effect is a genuine response to perceptions of personal or collective threat. We investigated this question in two experiments using German samples. In the first experiment (N = 144), both general and specific authoritarian tendencies increased after asking people to imagine that they were personally affected by terrorism. No such effect occurred when they were made to think about Germany as a whole being affected by terrorism. This finding was replicated and extended in a second experiment (N = 99), in which personal and collective threat were manipulated orthogonally. Authoritarian and ethnocentric (ingroup bias) reactions occurred only for people highly identified with their national ingroup under personal threat, indicating that authoritarian responses may operate as a group-level coping strategy for a threat to the personal self. Again, we found no effects for collective threat. In both studies, authoritarianism mediated the effects of personal threat on more specific authoritarian and ethnocentric reactions. These results suggest that the effects of terrorist threat on authoritarianism can, at least in part, be attributed to a sense of personal insecurity, raised under conditions of terrorist threat. We discuss the present findings with regard to basic sociomotivational processes (e.g., group-based control restoration, terror management) and how these may relate to recent models of authoritarianism.

Activist or Terrorist? Negotiating Discourses of Eco-Terror in "If a Tree Falls"

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, Jade

2018-01-01

Environmentalist voices like the Earth Liberation Front have been labeled "eco-terrorists." The 2011 documentary film "If a Tree Falls" explores how "eco-terrorism" troubles the unstable border between activism and terrorism. This essay offers a textual analysis of the film's negotiation of the activism/terrorism…

A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Giger, Maryellen Lissak

2001-01-01

... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

A Terrorist-fraud Resistant and Extractor-free Anonymous Distance-bounding Protocol

OpenAIRE

Avoine , Gildas; Bultel , Xavier; Gambs , Sébastien; Gerault , David; Lafourcade , Pascal; Onete , Cristina; Robert , Jean-Marc

2017-01-01

International audience; Distance-bounding protocols have been introduced to thwart relay attacks against contactless authentication protocols. In this context, veri-fiers have to authenticate the credentials of untrusted provers. Unfortunately , these protocols are themselves subject to complex threats such as terrorist-fraud attacks, in which a malicious prover helps an accomplice to authenticate. Provably guaranteeing the resistance of distance-bounding protocols to these attacks is a compl...

Estimation of enhanced cancer risk with 18FDG PET/CT investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaushik, Aruna; Mishra, Anil K.; Sharma, Rajnish; Mondal, Anupam; Dwarakanath, B.S.

2014-01-01

18 F-Fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) investigation involves internal administration of 18 FDG and use of CT X-rays for the purpose of obtaining functional and anatomical information of a patient. However, the radiation exposure from undergoing PET/CT investigation may enhance the risk of cancer incidence as per the Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) model. The objective of the present study was to quantify the risk of cancer incidence associated with radiation exposure from 18 FDG PET/CT investigations. The organ doses from internally administered 18 FDG were estimated using OLINDA/EXM Code by performing dynamic PET scans in different regions of the body in a total of forty-nine patients. Organ doses from the CT component were calculated using the software CT-Expo. The associated cancer risk was calculated in terms of life time risk of cancer incidence resulting from a specified dose of ionizing radiation and was expressed in terms of Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR). LAR values and the organ doses estimated for males and females were used to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer incidence from whole body 18 FDG PET/CT scan. Since from 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigations, various tissues of the body receive substantially different doses, the site specific risk of cancer incidence was estimated and summed to obtain the total risk. This was compared with the baseline lifetime risk of cancer incidence in Indian population. LAR of cancer incidence was observed to be relatively higher in females as compared to males. The risk estimates ranged from 0.36% to 0.49% for a 20 year old male and 0.58% to 0.79% for a 20 year old female and were observed to be higher in younger ages and decreased with age. 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigation was observed to be associated with non-negligible radiation risk as compared to the risks associated with other diagnostic modalities. (author)

Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.

2015-01-01

The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)

Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

Science.gov (United States)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

2012-03-01

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

2012-01-01

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon

2006-07-15

Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.

Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

2011-01-01

When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinisa Bogdan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grahn, D.

1990-01-01

The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph Heesen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

2013-01-01

Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

Reasoning about Emotional Contents Following Shocking Terrorist Attacks: A Tale of Three Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchette, Isabelle; Richards, Anne; Melnyk, Laura; Lavda, Anastasia

2007-01-01

The authors examined reasoning following the terrorist attacks carried out in London in July 2005. They tested participants in London (United Kingdom), Manchester (United Kingdom), and London (Canada) within 1 week of the attacks and again 6 months later. Participants reasoned about syllogisms of 3 types: neutral, generally emotional, and…

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

Science.gov (United States)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

2007-01-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Hyeongki [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2007-07-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity.

The Terrorist and the Media: Partners in Crime or Rituals and Harmless Observers?

Science.gov (United States)

Dowling, Ralph E.

This paper explores the idea that the media "cause" or strongly motivate acts of terrorism. In an effort to refute this view the paper applies Kenneth Burke's dramatistic theory of communication to show that the motives and behavior of political terrorists can be explained without reference to the media coverage terrorism produces. The…

The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luis, J.B.

2001-01-01

The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Guerilla Warfare & Law Enforcement: Combating the 21st Century Terrorist Cell within the U.S.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Major Richard Hughbank

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Both domestic and international terrorist organizations employ guerrilla warfare tactics, techniques, and procedures. Thus, the ability to identify and defeat the members of these organizations, cripple their infrastructures, and disrupt their financial resources lies in the understanding of modern guerrilla warfare as it develops in the twenty-first century within the United States.3 The forms of asymmetric warfare4 adopted by domestic and international terrorist groups alike is no longer intended to gain simple media exposure or governmental manipulation; they want to make an overpowering impact by causing massive loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and are often motivated by religious imperatives and political goals. As terrorism analyst Stephen Flynn has observed, "Throughout the 20th century [Americans] were able to treat national security as essentially an out-of-body experience. When confronted by threats, [America] dealt with them on the turf of our allies or our adversaries. Aside from the occasional disaster and heinous crime, civilian life [in the United States] has been virtually terror-free." With the turn of the twenty-first century, terrorist operations have become more prevalent in the United States and are taking shape in the form of modern guerrilla warfare, thus creating new challenges for federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies. After reviewing the origin and nature of these challenges, this article will offer some suggestions for countering guerilla warfare in the United States.

Colombian Army Transformation and the Inflection Point of the Terrorist Groups

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-30

Prince (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), 24. 2 James D Henderson, La Modernizacion en Colombia: Los años de Laureano Gomez, 1889-1965...prime factor that permits the terrorist´s isolation from the social base, as well as the legitimate use of force by the State. In summary, the FARC...his dismissal, for alleged meddling in political affairs. 23 3 Francisco Leal Buitrago, La Inseguridad de la Seguridad. Colombia 1958-2005

Transnational Crime and the Criminal-Terrorist Nexus: Synergies and Corporate Trends

Science.gov (United States)

2004-04-01

are forced into prostitution, pornography and sweatshop labor, it becomes an obvious and direct threat to the fabric of our society.3 Add terrorists... impacts the U.S. Finally, many nation states are on the brink of thriving or failing, and their fate depends either on us…or the “help” of organized...and social fabric of societies came to light in the mid-1990s. Aggravating factors include globalization of business networks, lowered trade

Improving Supply Chain Management by enhanced Risk Management to minimize the Impact of Disruptions on Supply Chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meyer-Larsen, N.; Drupsteen, L.; Gräf, G.; Maier, L.; Müller, R.

2013-01-01

Risk management, which is the identification and analysis of risks and their mitigation, is increasingly becoming a crucial factor in the management of international intermodal supply chains. On the one hand, security risks are addressed, especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001.

Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

OpenAIRE

Raghavan, Vasanthan; Galstyan, Aram; Tartakovsky, Alexander G.

2012-01-01

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, re...

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Assessment and reduction of proliferation risk of reactor-grade plutonium regarding construction of ‘fizzle bombs’ by terrorists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serfontein, Dawid E.; Mulder, Eben J.; Reitsma, Frederik

2014-01-01

The approximately 23.7 wt% 240 Pu in reactor-grade plutonium denatures the 239 Pu to the extent that it cannot fuel high yield nuclear weapons. 240 Pu has a high spontaneous fission rate, which increases the spontaneous neutron flux within the fuel. When such a nuclear weapon is triggered, these neutrons cause the nuclear fission chain reaction to pre-detonate which blows the imploding fuel shell apart before the designed level of compression and reactivity could be attained, thereby greatly reducing the average energy yield of such “fizzle” bombs. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium is normally viewed as highly proliferation resistant. In this article the literature on the proliferation resistance of reactor-grade plutonium and on the mechanism and effect of fizzle bombs is reviewed in order to test this view. It is shown that even very low yield fizzle bombs, exploded in urban areas, would still cause serious blast damage as well as radioactive contamination. Combined with the high levels of induced terror, fizzle bombs might thus be attractive psychological weapons for terrorists. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium may not be sufficiently proliferation resistant against nuclear terrorism. However, denaturisation with more than 9% 238 Pu produces high levels of decay heat which will melt or explode the high explosives around uncooled implosion type weapons, rendering them useless. Unfortunately, reactor-grade Pu contains only 2.7% 238 Pu and is thus not sufficiently proliferation resistant in this respect. It is also shown that the associated neptunium poses a substantial proliferation risk. In the present study strong improvement of the proliferation resistance was demonstrated by simulation of incineration of reactor-grade plutonium in the 400 MW th Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Demonstration Power Plant. Results for modified fuel cycles, aimed at transmutating 237 Np to 238 Pu are also reported. However, these modifications increased the disloaded heavy metal

Operation the laboratory for NBC protection and bio monitoring in the case of terrorist attack with NBC weapons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tusek, D.; Vucemilovic, A; Klobucar, J.

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop efficacy of Operation the Laboratory for NBC protection and Bio monitoring in the case of terrorist attack with chemical weapons. When is necessary quickly, adeptly Operation and unambiguous confirmation about use chemical warfare agent, the Laboratory must be ready and qualified for reaction. The Laboratory had to develop capability for the timely sampling and unambiguous identification chemical warfare agents in a battlefield or in case of the terrorist attack. The need for quality sample collection and analyses is critical to verify use of chemical weapon (CW) by an enemy or terrorists. Collection, packaging, transport and analysis of samples must be carried out on proper way and quickly enough for military, medical or political purposes. Precise records must accompany each sample but these records must not contaminate samples anyway. All sampling team personnel have to be equipped with appropriate equipment and qualified in its handling. After arriving samples at our Laboratory, we will handle with them on standard procedures; carry out preparation such as Headspace, Liquid/liquid extraction, Solid phase extraction, Liquid/solid extraction, concentration and derivatization. After that we will analyze samples by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC/MS) method.(author)

Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

2013-11-01

To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Stories and drawings by children after the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris].

Science.gov (United States)

Poget, Marc; Bouaziz, Nora; Apter, Gisèle

2016-01-01

Through the stories and drawings of children in a medical-psychological centre, it is possible to explore their psychological representations of the terrorist attacks which took place in Paris in January 2015. This work highlights the need to rethink the methods of care provided to these children in order to adapt them to their specific needs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

2014-01-01

We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

1981-01-01

The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

1998-01-01

In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

Offensive Counterterrorism Targeted killing in eliminating terrorist target: the case of the USA and Israel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hermínio Matos

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the "global terrorism project", some States have adopted offensive counterterrorism measures which, though within national strategies on security and defense, contemplate the use of military power and the use of lethal force against non-state actors - individuals, groups or terrorist organizations - beyond their national borders. Reformulating the security paradigm has led, in these cases, to policies against terrorism. This is the case of targeted killing - the killing of selected targets - by the USA and Israel. Targeted killing actions - using essentially but not only drones - in Pakistan and Yemen by the American administration, a well as the Israeli response to Palestinian terrorism, are under heated debate in terms of their efficiency and legality. Thus, this paper aims to not only provide an analytical framework on this theme but also analyze the scope and impact of these counter terrorist strategies by the two countries.

PROSECUTING SOMALIA PIRATES AS TERRORISTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ODHIAMBO E.O.S., ONKWARE K., KASSILLY J., NTABO O. M.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This article starts from the assumption that piracy resembles terrorism in many aspects and attempts to support it through both a theoretical investigation and practical examples. The argument it makes is that Somali pirates should be prosecuted as terrorists. Moreover, it emphasizes the idea that for Somalia’s neighboring countries and not only the implementation of such an approach consists in resorting to the antiterrorist conventions already in place. Thus, for example, Kenya Navy as a piracyfi ghting agency should rely on these conventions to justify the capture and prosecution of pirates in Kenyan courts. In this respect, we emphasize the idea that only by resorting to an established international legal framework can Kenya identify the tools to counter pirates’ actions within legal limits. Moreover, this should be paralleled by efforts towards rebuilding Somalia and its institutions if long-term solutions are to be envisaged in the eradication of piracy in the Indian Ocean. In conclusion, the article looks at the concepts of piracy, terrorism and development in the Horn of Africa, suggests that piracy is a form of Terrorism and, makes a series of recommendations.

We Bomb, Therefore We Are: The Evolution of Terrorist Group Life Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

1994-03-24

34 Political Socialization in Left-Wing Underground Organizations: Biographies of Italian and German Militants," International Social Movement Research... Political Socialization of Terrorist Groups in West Germany," Journal of Political and Military Sociology, v. 11, n. 2, Fall 1983, 236. See also Giorgio...Love?, 30-31. 7 Quoted in Wasmund, " Political Socialization ," 236. 88Irving L. Horowitz, "The Routinization of Terrorism and Its Unanticipated

Plastic Surgery Management of Victims of Terrorist Violence in Ankara, Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

İğde, Murat; Kaplan, Ahmet

2017-12-01

Terror attacks have been progressively increasing worldwide through the present era. The management of the consequences of terrorism events is under debate in almost every scientific area. The organization and advancement of health services constitute important components of the crisis management. Similar to other specialty areas in medicine, the medical management of terrorist attacks is becoming important in terms of plastic and reconstructive surgery.Ankara, the capital of Turkey, has been subject to 2 terrorist events in public places within a year. The total number of patients involved in both cases was 434. Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital is a tertiary health care institution and one of the most important trauma centers in the region. A total of 178 Patients exposed to these events referred to our hospital. Of the total, 34 patients were completely or partially treated in the plastic and reconstructive surgery clinic. In this study, we tried to discuss the difficulties encountered in the classification of patients and plastic surgery during the treatment period of patients who experienced these attacks.Data were obtained from The National News Agency, hospital, and our own clinic registries. Patient classification was based on the injured parts of the body. Statistical analysis was performed for all data. In conclusion, the role and the importance of plastic surgery department especially in trauma management have been emphasized in the light of our findings.

EDRP public local inquiry, UKAEA/BNFL precognition on: Risk targets and EDRP design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, M.L.

1986-06-01

A full description is presented of the extent to which risk is controlled by the targets to be implemented in the proposed EDRP design, including a discussion of a particular accident sequence. Risk expressions and the usefulness of risk criteria are reviewed. Details are given of the accident consequence modelling as used by the UKAEA. Terrorist attack and sabotage are briefly discussed. (UK)

Identifying foreign terrorist fighters: The Role of Public-Private Partnership, Information Sharing and Financial Intelligence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Keatinge

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Since 9/11, financial institutions have found themselves placed squarely on the front line of efforts to combat terrorism: countering terrorist financing has been a core element of the global counter-terrorism architecture since President George W Bush signed Executive Order 13224 promising to starve terrorists of funding. Financial institutions have played valuable “post-event” forensic roles, but despite the apparently immense troves of data they hold, their effective involvement in the identification and disruption of terrorist intentions or activity remains elusive. With global authorities consumed with the mushrooming growth of “foreign terrorist fighters” (FTFs, it seems timely to revisit the question of how financial institutions can play a more preventative role in countering terrorist threats. As the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force (FATF noted recently, “greater domestic cooperation among AML/CFT [anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism] bodies and other authorities” is needed to tackle funding of FTFs. Banks must play a key role in the development of this architecture. The issue of FTFs flowing to and from the conflict in Syria is likely to shape the international security agenda for the foreseeable future. Identifying citizens who have joined terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq pose a threat to the UK. The UK is certainly not alone in Europe in facing this threat. Evidence suggests these fears are now being realised. Both the scale of the issue in the context of the Syrian conflict and the speed with which the numbers have risen have caught international security authorities off guard, which – it would seem – have only belatedly appreciated the magnitude of the challenge. Whilst there has been much discussion and debate about who these travelling fighters are, their motivations, and the threats they pose, the majority of this analysis has focused on the role of social media in this

Attention and Memory in School-Age Children Surviving the Terrorist Attack in Beslan, Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Scrimin, Sara; Moscardino, Ughetta; Capello, Fabia; Axia, Giovanna

2009-01-01

Little is known about the impact of terrorism on children's cognitive functioning and school learning. The primary purpose of this study was to report on cognitive functioning among school-age children 20 months after a terrorist attack against their school. Participants included 203 directly and indirectly exposed children from Beslan and 100…

48 CFR 252.209-7001 - Disclosure of ownership or control by the government of a terrorist country.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

...) (a) Definitions. As used in this provision— (1) Government of a terrorist country includes the state... the government of which has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism. As of the...

[Terrorist attack trauma - an individual entity of polytrauma : A 10-year update].

Science.gov (United States)

Güsgen, C; Franke, A; Hentsch, S; Kollig, E; Schwab, R

2017-10-01

The incidence of terrorist attacks is increasing worldwide, and they have also become a permanent threat in European cities. Due to its complexity, terrorist attack trauma places high demands on the strategy of surgical treatment. The combination of various mechanisms, explosions and gunshot injuries, with the characteristic pressure (blast) damage and a high proportion of penetrating trauma with simultaneous burns are characteristic features. Unlike in military conflicts, injuries to people of all ages and without ballistic body protection (body armor) are to be expected. The mechanism of the attack and its local conditions are of relevance for the assessment of the situation and the expected injury patterns. Thus, suicide attacks result in several times higher numbers of fatalities and casualties. Explosions on free ground lead to different types of injury than those in closed or semi-enclosed spaces. The treatment principles of the Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS®) are based on the intrahospital care of casualties as well as damage control strategies with trigger factors. In order to prepare and educate clinics and surgeons in Germany for such scenarios, various course formats of the professional societies, the German Society for General and Visceral Surgery (DGAV) and the German Society for Trauma Surgery (DGU) have now been established.

Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. te Linde

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji

2016-01-01

The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-10

ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

2008-01-01

... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

2014-01-01

For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experience...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...... the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...

Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

1998-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

Terrorists or cowards: negative portrayals of male Syrian refugees in social media

OpenAIRE

Rettberg, Jill Walker; Gajjala, Radhika

2015-01-01

This paper examines images and words shared on the Twitter hashtag #refugeesNOTwelcome to understand the portrayal of male Syrian refugees in a post-9/11 context where the Middle-Eastern male is often primarily cast as a potential terrorist. Queer theorist Jasbir Puar (2007) and Middle- East scholar Paul Amar (2011) provide us with a theoretical approach to make sense of the contradictions we see emerging in this social media context.

Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

The 'overlooked trio' of hypothetical terrorist nuclear weapons - reactor grade plutonium, neptunium-237 and tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sholly, S.

2002-01-01

Full text: Considerations revolving around physical protection of nuclear material are quite commonly and naturally focused on protecting weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) and highly enriched uranium (HEU) from theft and diversion. These two materials are the center of attention because of their well-known (and demonstrated) potential for use in first-generation nuclear explosive devices of which potential terrorists are widely thought to be capable. They are also the center of attention because of retirements of these materials from military use as the Russian Federation and the United States reduce the number of nuclear weapons in their arsenals. Three other materials - an 'overlooked trio' - must also be borne in mind within this context: (1) reactor-grade plutonium (RGPu); (2) neptunium-237 (Np-237); and (3) tritium (H-3). Although there are still some authorities who either contend that RGPu cannot be used in a nuclear explosive or that there are (for a terrorist) insurmountable difficulties in doing so, the knowledgeable scientific and technical community, recognizes the potential utility of RGPu for hypothetical terrorist nuclear devices. A much smaller community of experts recognizes the usefulness of Np-237 for nuclear devices, but Np-237 is as straight-forwardly and easily usable as HEU and similarly abundant (but not often in separated form). Tritium can be used (with a modest increase in design sophistication) in a conventional first-generation nuclear device with any of the weapons-usable materials (WGPu, HEU, RGPu or Np-237) to increase the yield and/or increase the reliability of a non-fizzle yield. Given the presence of RGPu and Np-237 in abundant quantities in spent commercial reactor fuel, widely available knowledge of how to separate these materials, and a world-wide total of more than 400 nuclear power plants, spent reactor fuel also requires stringent controls. This is especially true of old spent fuel which has far less radiation dose

Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; Bekker, Andriëtte A; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

2015-01-01

Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

2016-10-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Strengthening Hospital Surge Capacity in the Event of Explosive or Chemical Terrorist Attacks

Science.gov (United States)

2009-03-01

and become more specialized and efficient over the past decade in order to survive in the tight financial markets . Capacity is not keeping pace...Surge Capacity for Terrorist Bombings,” Atlanta, Georgia, (April 2007): 6. 197 S. Einav, Z. Feigenberg, C. Weissman, D. Zolchik, G. Caspi, D. Kotler ...activated in several bombings, 200 S. Einav, Z. Feigenberg, C. Weissman, D. Zolchik, G. Caspi, D. Kotler

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

RiD: A New Approach to Estimate the Insolvency Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Given the recent international crises and the increasing number of defaults, several researchers have attempted to develop metrics that calculate the probability of insolvency with higher accuracy. The approaches commonly used, however, do not consider the credit risk nor the severity of the distance between receivables and obligations among different periods. In this paper we mathematically present an approach that allow us to estimate the insolvency risk by considering not only future receivables and obligations, but the severity of the distance between them and the quality of the respective receivables. Using Monte Carlo simulations and hypothetical examples, we show that our metric is able to estimate the insolvency risk with high accuracy. Moreover, our results suggest that in the absence of a smooth distribution between receivables and obligations, there is a non-null insolvency risk even when the present value of receivables is larger than the present value of the obligations.

Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

2018-05-08

The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

2011-01-01

Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

Estimated risk from exposure to radon decay products in US homes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nero, A.V. Jr.

1986-05-01

Recent analyses now permit direct estimation of the risks of lung cancer from radon decay products in US homes. Analysis of data from indoor monitoring in single-family homes yields a tentative frequency distribution of annual-average 222 Rn concentrations averaging 55 Bq m -3 and having 2% of homes exceeding 300 Bq m -3 . Application of the results of occupational epidemiological studies, either directly or using recent advances in lung dosimetry, to indoor exposures suggests that the average indoor concentration entails a lifetime risk of lung cancer of 0.3% or about 10% of the total risk of lung cancer. The risk to individuals occupying the homes with 300 Bq m -3 or more for their lifetimes is estimated to exceed 2%, with risks from the homes with thousands of Bq m -3 correspondingly higher, even exceeding the total risk of premature death due to cigarette smoking. The potential for such average and high-level risks in ordinary homes forces development of a new perspective on environmental exposures

How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2009-06-01

Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

2013-12-01

Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

2015-01-01

Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sascha Düerkop

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. S. Akopyan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

Assessment and reduction of proliferation risk of reactor-grade plutonium regarding construction of ‘fizzle bombs’ by terrorists

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serfontein, Dawid E., E-mail: Dawid.Serfontein@nwu.ac.za [School for Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (PUK-Campus), PRIVATE BAG X6001 (Internal Post Box 360), Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Mulder, Eben J. [School for Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (South Africa); Reitsma, Frederik [Calvera Consultants (South Africa)

2014-05-01

The approximately 23.7 wt% {sup 240}Pu in reactor-grade plutonium denatures the {sup 239}Pu to the extent that it cannot fuel high yield nuclear weapons. {sup 240}Pu has a high spontaneous fission rate, which increases the spontaneous neutron flux within the fuel. When such a nuclear weapon is triggered, these neutrons cause the nuclear fission chain reaction to pre-detonate which blows the imploding fuel shell apart before the designed level of compression and reactivity could be attained, thereby greatly reducing the average energy yield of such “fizzle” bombs. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium is normally viewed as highly proliferation resistant. In this article the literature on the proliferation resistance of reactor-grade plutonium and on the mechanism and effect of fizzle bombs is reviewed in order to test this view. It is shown that even very low yield fizzle bombs, exploded in urban areas, would still cause serious blast damage as well as radioactive contamination. Combined with the high levels of induced terror, fizzle bombs might thus be attractive psychological weapons for terrorists. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium may not be sufficiently proliferation resistant against nuclear terrorism. However, denaturisation with more than 9% {sup 238}Pu produces high levels of decay heat which will melt or explode the high explosives around uncooled implosion type weapons, rendering them useless. Unfortunately, reactor-grade Pu contains only 2.7% {sup 238}Pu and is thus not sufficiently proliferation resistant in this respect. It is also shown that the associated neptunium poses a substantial proliferation risk. In the present study strong improvement of the proliferation resistance was demonstrated by simulation of incineration of reactor-grade plutonium in the 400 MW{sub th} Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Demonstration Power Plant. Results for modified fuel cycles, aimed at transmutating {sup 237}Np to {sup 238}Pu are also reported. However, these

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Arrighi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM. The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and

Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Cindori

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

2008-09-01

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkis Vicente Sánchez

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

RISK DISCLOSURE AGAINST ATTACK ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshida, Mamoru; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

This paper analyzes the government's defensive and disclosure strategies to reduce the damage caused by terrorists that attack critical infrastructures using subjective game theory. The government recognizes a terrorist as a hidden opponent and the government's decision making about the policies against terror attacks depends on the belief about the existence of terrorist. In addition, it is not necessarily true that the government and the terrorist play the common game and make their decisions. Considering these points, the paper formulates the model in which the government and the terrorist formulate the subjective games respectively, and they induce the strategies using the equilibriums of their subjective games. The paper concluded that the government's disclosure about the implementation of the countermeasure, rather than the disclosure of warning level related with the belief about the existence of terrorist, brings about the higher increment of the subjective payoffs of the government.

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

Science.gov (United States)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco; Caramella, Davide; Vano, Eliseo; Semelka, Richard C.; Picano, Eugenio

2012-01-01

Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient’ s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider–patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy); Caramella, Davide [Radiology Department, Pisa University, Pisa (Italy); Vano, Eliseo [San Carlos Hospital, Radiology Department, Complutense University, Madrid (Spain); Semelka, Richard C. [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Picano, Eugenio, E-mail: picano@ifc.cnr.it [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy)

2012-11-15

Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient' s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider-patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

2014-03-01

Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

How Belfius Bank's response to the terrorist attacks in Brussels helped embed business continuity in the company culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Jappens, Ludo

2017-01-01

Until 2015, major terrorist incidents in Belgium were considered a 'black swan'. However, the suicide attacks in Paris on 13th November, 2015 provided a wake-up call. Investigations revealed that the raid was prepared in Belgium by jihadists who grew up in Brussels and was coordinated by Belgian ISIS fighters in Syria. In an instant, it became clear that terror had been embedded in Belgian society and could erupt at any moment. At Belfius Bank Belgium, the subsequent months were a rollercoaster ride of terrorist-related events. Business activities were strongly affected, as the company's head office is located in the centre of Brussels. This paper focuses on the way Belfius responded to the events and how the lessons learned have helped to improve its business continuity and crisis management capability.

Cultural Memory of Sorrow in Advertising after the Terrorist Attacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esther Martínez Pastor

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The general objective of this research study is to do a comparative research to investigate the perception of sorrow in the advertising in the press after the terrorist attacks: 11/09/2001 (U.S. and 11/04/2004 (Spain. The general hypothesis considers that there are similar perceptions of the sorrow towards the ads although there are cultural differences. On a computer program the subject was shown these images about announcement advertisement published in the press after the 09/11 and 11/04 in a random order and was asked different questions that explored their perception and attitudes with regard to these advertisements

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Optimizing Visits to the Site of Death for Bereaved Families After Disasters and Terrorist Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kristensen, Pål; Dyregrov, Atle; Weisæth, Lars; Straume, Marianne; Dyregrov, Kari; Heir, Trond; Bugge, Renate Grønvold

2017-09-13

In recent years it has been common after disasters and terrorist events to offer bereaved families the opportunity to visit the place where their loved ones died. Many report that such visits are beneficial in processing their loss. Various factors, both cognitive (eg, counteracting disbelief) and existential or emotional (eg, achieving a sense of closeness to the deceased), are associated with the experienced benefit. Nonetheless, exacerbations of trauma and grief reactions (eg, re-enactment fantasies) are common, with some of the bereaved also reporting adverse reactions after the visit. Subsequently, proper preparations are a prerequisite before such visits take place. This article describes how to optimize collective visits to the site of death after disasters or terrorist events for bereaved families. Important questions-for example, concerning those who should be responsible for organizing a visit and those who should be invited, the timing of the visit, what can be done at the site, the need for support personnel, and other practical issues-are discussed and general guidelines are recommended. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).

Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Tarima, Sergey S. [Division of Biostatistics, Institute for Health and Society, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Lawton, Colleen A.F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Semenenko, Vladimir A., E-mail: vsemenenko@mcw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)

2012-05-01

Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose-response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose-response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and {>=}36 months did not reveal significant differences (p {>=} .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose-response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran; Tarima, Sergey S.; Lawton, Colleen A.F.; Semenenko, Vladimir A.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose–response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose–response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and ≥36 months did not reveal significant differences (p ≥ .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose–response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

2013-01-01

Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

Characterising the UK Terrorist Threat: The Problem with Non-Violent Ideology as a Focus for Counter-Terrorism and Terrorism as the product of ‘Vulnerability’

OpenAIRE

Anthony Richards

2012-01-01

This article investigates two particular aspects as to how the terrorist threat in the UK has been characterised, arguing that they both challenge conventional academic wisdom as to how terrorism should be conceptualised. While such conventional wisdom should always be open to challenge, and policymaking perspectives are different to those of academics, these two particular aspects as to how the terrorist threat has been perceived in the UK merit scrutiny, especially as counter-terrorism stra...

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

Science.gov (United States)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Cancer risk estimation for mixtures of coal tars and benzo(a)pyrene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaylor, D.W.; Culp, S.J.; Goldstein, L.S.; Beland, F.A.

2000-01-01

Two-year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low-dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk -4 (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 x 10 -4 (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk -4 (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 x 10 -3 per microg per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 x 10 -3 per microg per kg body weight per day listed in the US EPA Integrated Risk Information System

Estimates of radiation doses and cancer risk from food intake in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Eun Kyeong; Lee, Won Jin; Ha, Wi Ho; Seo, Song Won; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae Jung; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Hwang, Myung Sil; Choi, Hoon

2016-01-01

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a widespread public concern for radiation exposure through the contamination of domestic or imported food has continued worldwide. Because the internal exposure from contaminated food is an important consideration for human health effect, some studies for estimating radiation doses and cancer risk from the Fukushima nuclear accident have been conducted in several countries (1). The aims of the study is to estimate internal radiation dose and lifetime risks of cancer from food ingestion in Korean population. Our findings suggest no discernible increase n radiation doses or excess fatal cancer risk from food ingestion at this stage in Korea, and provide scientific evidence of the risk communication with general public associated with low-dose radiation exposure.

Estimates of radiation doses and cancer risk from food intake in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, Eun Kyeong; Lee, Won Jin [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Wi Ho; Seo, Song Won; Jin, Young Woo [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Kyu Hwan [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Hae Jung; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Hwang, Myung Sil [Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Hoon [Wonkwang University, Iksan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-15

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a widespread public concern for radiation exposure through the contamination of domestic or imported food has continued worldwide. Because the internal exposure from contaminated food is an important consideration for human health effect, some studies for estimating radiation doses and cancer risk from the Fukushima nuclear accident have been conducted in several countries (1). The aims of the study is to estimate internal radiation dose and lifetime risks of cancer from food ingestion in Korean population. Our findings suggest no discernible increase n radiation doses or excess fatal cancer risk from food ingestion at this stage in Korea, and provide scientific evidence of the risk communication with general public associated with low-dose radiation exposure.

A-BOMB SURVIVOR SITE-SPECIFIC RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS ESTIMATES

Science.gov (United States)

A draft manuscript is being prepared that describes ways to improve estimates of risk from radiation that have been derived from A-bomb survivors. The work has been published in the journal Radiation Research volume 169, pages 87-98.

Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lerche, I.

1996-01-01

Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

1995-01-01

This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, D.

1986-04-01

Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

1999-01-01

Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

2002-01-01

Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komnitsas, Kostas; Modis, Kostas

2009-01-01

The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.

Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

Science.gov (United States)

Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

2017-08-01

The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

Science.gov (United States)

Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

2013-02-01

Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari

2010-01-01

Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....

The Representation of Islam in Western Media: The Coverage of Norway Terrorist Attacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emad A. Alghamdi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Undeniably mass media have become the primary source of information and communication for the majority of, if not all, members of modern societies. The nature of the information thus communicated and the manner in which it is dispensed through media certainly have a profound influence on people’s perceptions of the world around them. The relation between the media, on one hand, and culture, social life, and politics on the other, is an interesting one in which media fulfills dual functions, reflecting and also shaping issues occurring within these three domains (Bell & Garrett, 1998. In the initial media coverage of the 2011 Norway terrorist attacks, some western media authors, inaccurately and unjustly, held Muslims and Islamic groups as being responsible for the attacks. Using Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA, this study seeks to ascertain how language was manipulated in this coverage of the terrorist attacks in order to give expression to blind prejudice against Islam and Muslims. As findings of the analyses reveal, the tones of allegation in these articles and reports differed dramatically from one article to another ranging from tones of mere suspicion to those of overt accusation. The varying degrees of uncertainty or assertion of the authors’ statements were reflected in the varied linguistic forms and devices used within the discourse.

Estimation of risks and possible ecological and economic damages from large-scale natural and man-induced catastrophes in ecology-hazard regions of Central asia and the Caucasus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valyaev, A N; Kazakov, S V [Nuclear Safety Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Stepanets, O V [Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2006-09-15

Full text: It is our international Program with the participation of 6 countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. For all presented regions we single out the following typical factors that significantly increase a risk of implementing natural and man-induced catastrophes: (1) these regions are located in the mountain areas with the high seismic level (5- 9 grades by Richter scale); (2) the largest mountain rivers have cascades of powerful hydroelectric stations with their sizeable reservoirs and huge high dams (>100m); (3) on the regions' densely populated lands there are plenty of mines for extraction of metals/minerals, industrial facilities and plants with U-tailing dumps and burrows of varied pollutants with using the different radioactive, toxic and poisonous substances in their technologies; (3) the man-induced activity here increases probabilities for occurrence of not only severe man-induced catastrophes, but also natural ones; (4) An especially grave situation has been created on trans boundary lands of these continue, due to the lack of common ecological and geochemical monitoring systems, that increases political and economic tension between the countries and generating negative migration processes; (5) risks and ecological-economic damages from catastrophes are not only regional but also global by nature, since they entail contamination of vast lands, the basins of the Black, Caspian and Kara Seas, that of the Arctic Ocean and, consequently, the entire World Ocean; (6) opportunity to perform deliberate attacks of terrorists with the using of explosives, that are able to cause man-induced catastrophes and stimulate natural calamities (earthquakes, mud flows, landslips, etc.). It is easier to implement attacks of terrorists there due to the intersection of main lines, an available border with current centers of international terrorism, located in Chechnya, Afghanistan and some others. The hazard is especially great for new

Estimation of risks and possible ecological and economic damages from large-scale natural and man-induced catastrophes in ecology-hazard regions of Central asia and the Caucasus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valyaev, A.N.; Kazakov, S.V; Stepanets, O.V.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is our international Program with the participation of 6 countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. For all presented regions we single out the following typical factors that significantly increase a risk of implementing natural and man-induced catastrophes: (1) these regions are located in the mountain areas with the high seismic level (5- 9 grades by Richter scale); (2) the largest mountain rivers have cascades of powerful hydroelectric stations with their sizeable reservoirs and huge high dams (>100m); (3) on the regions' densely populated lands there are plenty of mines for extraction of metals/minerals, industrial facilities and plants with U-tailing dumps and burrows of varied pollutants with using the different radioactive, toxic and poisonous substances in their technologies; (3) the man-induced activity here increases probabilities for occurrence of not only severe man-induced catastrophes, but also natural ones; (4) An especially grave situation has been created on trans boundary lands of these continue, due to the lack of common ecological and geochemical monitoring systems, that increases political and economic tension between the countries and generating negative migration processes; (5) risks and ecological-economic damages from catastrophes are not only regional but also global by nature, since they entail contamination of vast lands, the basins of the Black, Caspian and Kara Seas, that of the Arctic Ocean and, consequently, the entire World Ocean; (6) opportunity to perform deliberate attacks of terrorists with the using of explosives, that are able to cause man-induced catastrophes and stimulate natural calamities (earthquakes, mud flows, landslips, etc.). It is easier to implement attacks of terrorists there due to the intersection of main lines, an available border with current centers of international terrorism, located in Chechnya, Afghanistan and some others. The hazard is especially great for new

Radiological terrorism and estimate leukemia incidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saint'Yves, Thalis Leon de Avila; Maia, Arlei; Andrade, Edson R. de

2011-01-01

Radiological dispersal devices (RDD) are widely used as a terrorist tool leading to major environmental and public health concerns. This work is focused on simulating a dispersive scenario where an amount of most common radionuclide for this purpose is released. In order to estimate the total effective dose from such release, an affected urban area was chosen as a potential public mass concentration during World Cup in 2014 and Olympics in 2016 in Rio de Janeiro. Specialized simulation software called HotSpot Health Physics Code using a semi-empirical Gaussian model, was used to simulate dispersion of Cs-137 following detonation of a RDD. The simulation was designed to determine dose curves as a function of distance from the hot site. Additionally, it was determined the relative risk of leukemia incidence as well as statistical correlation between malignancies and exposure to radiation, based on probability of causation calculations. Results was suggestive that exists dependence on age at exposure time and the probability of leukemia development. This study emphasizes the importance of fast response, using a user-friendly computational method that may help, at first sight, to guide the response from the basic actions to the complete decision making process looking after health effects on public and environmental detriment. (author)

Radiological terrorism and estimate leukemia incidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saint' Yves, Thalis Leon de Avila [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Instituto Nacional do Cancer (INCa), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Maia, Arlei; Andrade, Edson R. de [Centro Tecnologico do Exercito (CTEX), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2011-07-01

Radiological dispersal devices (RDD) are widely used as a terrorist tool leading to major environmental and public health concerns. This work is focused on simulating a dispersive scenario where an amount of most common radionuclide for this purpose is released. In order to estimate the total effective dose from such release, an affected urban area was chosen as a potential public mass concentration during World Cup in 2014 and Olympics in 2016 in Rio de Janeiro. Specialized simulation software called HotSpot Health Physics Code using a semi-empirical Gaussian model, was used to simulate dispersion of Cs-137 following detonation of a RDD. The simulation was designed to determine dose curves as a function of distance from the hot site. Additionally, it was determined the relative risk of leukemia incidence as well as statistical correlation between malignancies and exposure to radiation, based on probability of causation calculations. Results was suggestive that exists dependence on age at exposure time and the probability of leukemia development. This study emphasizes the importance of fast response, using a user-friendly computational method that may help, at first sight, to guide the response from the basic actions to the complete decision making process looking after health effects on public and environmental detriment. (author)

Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

2017-02-01

The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiechen Tang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

2017-09-25

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

The need to counter extremist terrorist manifestations in society and in the penal system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazberov P.N.

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the need for inter-agency work to minimize the extremist-terrorist activities in the community. The problem of the psychology of extremism and terrorism are increasingly in the spotlight representatives of various scientific disciplines. First of all, there is no single legal science in all respects understanding of phenomena such as extremism and terrorism, their classification and evaluation, although a number of positive examples in this respect international cooperation is present. According to current data provided by the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, the General Prosecutor of the Russian Federation, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights, extremism is a real threat to the national security of the Russian Federation. From the data of law enforcement should be the fact that most of the crimes of extremist and terrorist nature committed by persons of young age, the consciousness of which are susceptible to nationalist propaganda. A significant increase in informal youth movements extremist-nationalist orientation. The problem of expansion of extremism is also relevant for the penitentiary system of modern society. The very fact that a significant number of prisoners serving sentences for extremism and terrorism, illustrates the need for them special psychological and educational work

Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre Bona

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

Estimate of person-years at risk among A-bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hrubec, Z

1964-11-19

Using information from the Supplementary Schedules of the 1950 National Census and from the JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study, cumulative person-years at risk in 1950 to 1960 were estimated by age ATB, sex, distance from hypocenter, radiation dose and symptoms for A-bomb survivors resident in Hiroshima and Nagasaki cities. The number of person-years at risk in 1951 to 1958 was estimated by applying the survivorship in each age group of the Adult Health Study sample during the period 1951 to 1958 to the number of survivors in 1950. To determine the number of person-years at risk from 1959 to 1960, the average yearly loss was evaluated for each exposure group for the period 1955 to 1958 in Hiroshima and for 1953 to 1958 in Nagasaki which was then applied to 1959 and 1960, respectively. The estimate of person-years among the nonexposed groups for this period was obtained from the above estimates, the total population of both cities, and the number of persons born after the A-bombing. Estimates by other associated factors were obtained by the same procedure. 20 references, 25 tables.

Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

Science.gov (United States)

Oei, W; Lieshout-Krikke, R W; Kretzschmar, M E; Zaaijer, H L; Coutinho, R A; Eersel, M; Jubithana, B; Halabi, Y; Gerstenbluth, I; Maduro, E; Tromp, M; Janssen, M P

2016-05-01

The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Crossover effect of spouse weekly working hours on estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mo-Yeol Kang

Full Text Available To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD.This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status.Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women.Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.

Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.

1989-01-01

The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

Cyberspace as a new arena for terroristic propaganda: an updated examination.

Science.gov (United States)

Minei, Elizabeth; Matusitz, Jonathan

2012-11-01

This paper analyzes the role of propaganda use in cyberterrorism. The main premise is that cyberterrorists display various semiotic gestures (e.g., the use of images and Internet videos) to communicate their intents to the public at large. In doing so, they communicate themes-these themes range from hate to anger. Cyberterrorism, then, is a form of theater or spectacle in which terrorists exploit cyberspace to trigger feelings of panic and overreaction in the target population. In many cases, this form of propaganda is the primary means of communication for various cyberterrorist groups to convey their intents. Internet sites also produce numerous opportunities for in-group communication and publicity.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-01

The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

Report on some methods of determining the state of convergence of Monte Carlo risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orford, J.L.; Hufton, D.; Johnson, K.

1991-05-01

The Department of the Environment is developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. Computer models are used to simulate the groundwater transport of radioactive materials from a disposal facility back to man. Monte Carlo methods are being employed to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (pra) of potential sites. The models calculate time histories of annual radiation dose to the critical group population. The annual radiation dose to the critical group in turn specifies the annual individual risk. The distribution of dose is generally highly skewed and many simulation runs are required to predict the level of confidence in the risk estimate i.e. to determine whether the risk estimate is converged. This report describes some statistical methods for determining the state of convergence of the risk estimate. The methods described include the Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of skewness and kurtosis and normal probability plots. A method for forecasting the number of samples needed before the risk estimate is converged is presented. Three case studies were conducted to examine the performance of some of these techniques. (author)

Does acute maternal stress in pregnancy affect infant health outcomes? Examination of a large cohort of infants born after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conlin Ava Marie S

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Infants in utero during the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 may have been negatively affected by maternal stress. Studies to date have produced contradictory results. Methods Data for this retrospective cohort study were obtained from the Department of Defense Birth and Infant Health Registry and included up to 164,743 infants born to active-duty military families. Infants were considered exposed if they were in utero on September 11, 2001, while the referent group included infants gestating in the same period in the preceding and following year (2000 and 2002. We investigated the association of this acute stress during pregnancy with the infant health outcomes of male:female sex ratio, birth defects, preterm birth, and growth deficiencies in utero and in infancy. Results No difference in sex ratio was observed between infants in utero in the first trimester of pregnancy on September 11, 2001 and infants in the referent population. Examination of the relationship between first-trimester exposure and birth defects also revealed no significant associations. In adjusted multivariable models, neither preterm birth nor growth deficiencies were significantly associated with the maternal exposure to the stress of September 11 during pregnancy. Conclusion The findings from this large population-based study suggest that women who were pregnant during the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 had no increased risk of adverse infant health outcomes.

Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

1975-01-01

Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

Science.gov (United States)

Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-08-01

*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

76 FR 39408 - Privacy Act of 1974; Department of Homeland Security/ALL-030 Use of the Terrorist Screening...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-06

... of Investigation (FBI)/Terrorist Screening Center (TSC) is providing a near real time, synchronized... appropriate clearances or permissions. Retention and disposal: The WLS will maintain a near real time mirror... difficulties they experienced during their travel screening at transportation hubs such as airports and train...

The day Norway cried: Proximity and distress in Norwegian citizens following the 22nd July 2011 terrorist attacks in Oslo and on Utøya Island.

Science.gov (United States)

Thoresen, Siri; Aakvaag, Helene Flood; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Dyb, Grete; Hjemdal, Ole Kristian

2012-01-01

Terrorism may create fear and stress reactions not only in the direct victims, but also in the general population. This study investigated emotional responses in the Norwegian population following the 22nd July 2011 terrorist attacks. We hypothesized that Oslo residents would report a higher level of fear responses compared with people living outside Oslo and that proximity would be associated with early distress and later post-traumatic stress reactions. Representative samples were drawn from the Norwegian Population Registry. Telephone interviews were conducted 4-5 months after the attacks. The response rate for the Oslo sample (N=465) was 24% of the total sample, and 43% of those who were actually reached by phone and asked to participate. Corresponding figures for the sample living outside Oslo (N=716) were 19% and 30%. Our results show strong immediate emotional responses, particularly sadness and a feeling of unreality, in both samples. Jumpiness and other fear responses were significantly higher among Oslo residents. Current level of risk perception was low 4-5 months after the attacks; however, a significant minority reported to feel less safe than before. Geographical and psychological proximity were associated with early emotional responses. Psychological proximity was significantly associated with post-traumatic stress reactions, while measures of geographical proximity were not. Immediate emotional responses, first-week reactions, and first-week jumpiness were uniquely and significantly associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. Post-traumatic stress reactions were elevated in ethnic minorities. The terrorist attacks seem to have had a significant effect on the Norwegian population, creating sadness and insecurity, at least in the short term. Proximity to the terrorist attacks was strongly associated with distress in the population, and early distress was strongly related to later post-traumatic stress reactions. Our results indicate that

Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2013-01-01

This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on

Estimating risk at a Superfund site contaminated with radiological and chemical wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Temeshy, A.; Liedle, J.M.; Sims, L.M.; Efird, C.R.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the method and results for estimating carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic effects at a Superfund site that is radiologically and chemically contaminated. Risk to receptors from disposal of waste in soil and resulting contamination of groundwater, air, surface water, and sediment is quantified. Specific risk assessment components which are addressed are the exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and the resulting risk characterization. In the exposure assessment, potential exposure pathways are identified using waste disposal inventory information for soil and modeled information for other media. Models are used to calculate future radionuclide concentrations in groundwater, soil, surface water and air. Chemical exposure concentrations are quantified using site characterization data. Models are used to determine concentrations of chemicals in surface water and in air. Toxicity parameters used to quantify the dose-response relationship associated with the carcinogenic contaminants are slope factors and with noncarcinogenic contaminants are reference doses. In the risk characterization step, results from the exposure assessment and toxicity assessment are summarized and integrated into quantitative risk estimates for carcinogens and hazard induces for noncarcinogens. Calculated risks for carcinogenic contaminants are compared with EPA's target risk range. At WAG 6, the risk from radionuclides and chemicals for an on-WAG homesteader exceeds EPA's target risk range. Hazard indices are compared to unity for noncarcinogenic contaminants. At WAG 6, the total pathway hazard index for the on-WAG homesteader exceeds unity

Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Paudel

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2013-03-01

This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

1984-05-01

Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables

Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

1984-05-01

Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

2016-09-01

For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.

1993-01-01

Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model

Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Jae Joo

1998-03-01

The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

Estimated risk of radiation-induced cancer from paediatric chest CT: two-year cohort study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niemann, Tilo [Cantonal Hospital Baden, Department of Radiology, Baden (Switzerland); University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Colas, Lucie; Santangelo, Teresa; Faivre, Jean Baptiste; Remy, Jacques; Remy-Jardin, Martine [University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Roser, Hans W.; Bremerich, Jens [University of Basel Hospital, Clinic of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical Physics, Basel (Switzerland)

2015-03-01

The increasing absolute number of paediatric CT scans raises concern about the safety and efficacy and the effects of consecutive diagnostic ionising radiation. To demonstrate a method to evaluate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence/mortality due to a single low-dose helical chest CT in a two-year patient cohort. A two-year cohort of 522 paediatric helical chest CT scans acquired using a dedicated low-dose protocol were analysed retrospectively. Patient-specific estimations of radiation doses were modelled using three different mathematical phantoms. Per-organ attributable cancer risk was then estimated using epidemiological models. Additional comparison was provided for naturally occurring risks. Total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence remains low for all age and sex categories, being highest in female neonates (0.34%). Summation of all cancer sites analysed raised the relative lifetime attributable risk of organ cancer incidence up to 3.6% in female neonates and 2.1% in male neonates. Using dedicated scan protocols, total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence and mortality for chest CT is estimated low for paediatric chest CT, being highest for female neonates. (orig.)

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

2015-09-25

The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

2017-01-01

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

2018-01-01

Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finding the Wolves in Sheeps Clothing: Ways to Distinguish and Deter Lone-Wolf Terrorists

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

Mark Hamm, “Lone-wolf Terrorism in America: Forging a New Way of Looking at an Old Problem,” YouTube video, 7:32, posted by the National Institute...that factors that influence most lone-wolf terrorists include, “to varying degrees and in variable combinations: personal aversion or depression ...Russia.”97 Also discovered after the bombings, “Tamerlan had a YouTube account that he used to post and watch violent Islamic extremist videos starting

Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

Science.gov (United States)

Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

2018-01-01

International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

2010-10-01

Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

Posse Comitatus and the Use of the Military in Denying Terrorist Access to the United States Along the Border with Mexico

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Thomas, Greg A

2005-01-01

.... The largely unsecured border we share with Mexico is an enticing avenue for illegal immigrants and drug smugglers but also, and more importantly, for potential terrorists hostile to the United States...

The Rise and the Fall of Terrorist Organizations in Post-Dictatorial Greece: The Role and the Lessons for the Intelligence Services

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Fakitsas, Miltiadis

2003-01-01

... and business elite, The government's failure to curtail these groups resulted from the enormous belief that these terrorists were not a direct threat to Greek's democracy Fortunately, in June of 2002...

Multistage Logistic Network Optimization under Disruption Risk

OpenAIRE

Rusman, Muhammad

2013-01-01

Getting over disruptions risk has been a challenging issue for many companies under the globalization that will link to potential external source such as demand uncertainties, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks. The disruption is an unexpected event that disturbs normal flows of products and materials within a supply chain. The disruption at one members of supply chain will propagate the offers and finally affect significant impacts on the entire chain. If we look back...

Reflection in phraseological neology of traumatic historical events connected with the terrorist threat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Skorobogatova Taisiya Ivanovna

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of phraseological units - neologisms which are associated with such traumatic historical events, as the implementation of terrorist acts. Particular emphasis is placed on the description of English, Russian and French phraseological units that have introduced the memory of the terrorist threat in the XX-XXI centuries.: Eng. That’s so 10th September (lit. today September 10, fig: Do not worry ahead of time about nothing; Rus. мочить в сортире (descriptor: беспощадно расправиться; фр. le prince s’est mari, le m chant est mort, c’est une semaine Walt Disney (lit. prince married the villain died, week Walt Disney; descriptor: Idyll, g n ration Bataclan (lit. Bataklan generation; descriptor: young people age of the victims who died in the “Bataklane”, i.e. young people aged 25-35. Phraseology description of new, emerging units is one of the most important problems in theoretical linguistics, namely: to illustrate and confirm the fact that the phrasebook body of a single national language is the result of the two memories - historical and linguistic. At the same time important to consider such a significant factor that determines the specificity of the national phraseological fund as memory selectivity in general and historical memory in particular.

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

Science.gov (United States)

Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

2016-01-01

Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

Addressing the Foreign Terrorist Fighters Phenomenon From a European Union Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Singleton

2014-12-01

Full Text Available With the outbreak of civil war and sectarian violence in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, over 15,000 men and women from more than 80 countries around the world have left their homes to become foreign fighters. The security challenge they pose is immense and there are concerns about radicalised fighters returning to their countries of origin or residence, hardened by experience and with the possible intent – and the know-how – to engage in terrorist activities. On 24 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2178 (2014 with the support of over 120 states representing a broad cross-section of the UN membership. Resolution 2178 called on all UN member states to ensure increased border security and to screen for or arrest so-called “foreign terrorist fighters” (FTFs travelling to or returning from conflict areas. Rightly so, it also urges states to counter violent extremism by taking preventive measures, such as engaging with communities at the local level to stop the spread of extremist ideologies. On 23 October 2014, the Global Center on Cooperative Security, the Human Security Collective, and ICCT convened an expert meeting at the European Union (EU in Brussels to discuss the implications of the resolution and to explore appropriate and effective responses to the threat of FTFs, both within the EU and as part of the Union’s foreign security and development programming. Building upon the discussion in Brussels, this policy brief is a compilation of essays from all three organisations on the challenges and opportunities for addressing the FTF threat from a European Union perspective. It also examines the implementation of Resolution 2178 as an integral part of national and multilateral foreign security and development policies and initiatives.

[Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

Science.gov (United States)

Grigor'ev, Iu G

2012-01-01

The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

1981-11-01

A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US popula six times larger than the first reservoir.onunding. Analytical work cthe Department of Energy

The effect of the September 11 terrorist attacks on suicide and deliberate self-harm : A time trend study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Lange, AW; Neeleman, J

2004-01-01

Suicide rates may be affected by world news. Our objective was to investigate the possible impact of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, on suicidal behavior in the Netherlands. There was evidence of an increase in rates of suicide and deliberate self-harm in the weeks immediately following

Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

2016-04-01

In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.