Stochastic goal-oriented error estimation with memory

Science.gov (United States)

Ackmann, Jan; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2017-11-01

We propose a stochastic dual-weighted error estimator for the viscous shallow-water equation with boundaries. For this purpose, previous work on memory-less stochastic dual-weighted error estimation is extended by incorporating memory effects. The memory is introduced by describing the local truncation error as a sum of time-correlated random variables. The random variables itself represent the temporal fluctuations in local truncation errors and are estimated from high-resolution information at near-initial times. The resulting error estimator is evaluated experimentally in two classical ocean-type experiments, the Munk gyre and the flow around an island. In these experiments, the stochastic process is adapted locally to the respective dynamical flow regime. Our stochastic dual-weighted error estimator is shown to provide meaningful error bounds for a range of physically relevant goals. We prove, as well as show numerically, that our approach can be interpreted as a linearized stochastic-physics ensemble.

Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors in reactor safety study for a PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Hall, R.E.; Swoboda, A.L.

1981-01-01

Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study. The code employed point estimate approach and ignored the smoothing technique applied in RSS. It computed the point estimates for the system unavailabilities from the median values of the component failure rates and proceeded in terms of point values to obtain the point estimates for the accident sequence probabilities, core melt probability, and release category probabilities. The sensitivity measure used was the ratio of the top event probability before and after the perturbation of the constituent events. Core melt probability per reactor year showed significant increase with the increase in the human error rates, but did not show similar decrease with the decrease in the human error rates due to the dominance of the hardware failures. When the Minimum Human Error Rate (M.H.E.R.) used is increased to 10 -3 , the base case human error rates start sensitivity to human errors. This effort now allows the evaluation of new error rate data along with proposed changes in the man machine interface

NDE errors and their propagation in sizing and growth estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horn, D.; Obrutsky, L.; Lakhan, R.

2009-01-01

The accuracy attributed to eddy current flaw sizing determines the amount of conservativism required in setting tube-plugging limits. Several sources of error contribute to the uncertainty of the measurements, and the way in which these errors propagate and interact affects the overall accuracy of the flaw size and flaw growth estimates. An example of this calculation is the determination of an upper limit on flaw growth over one operating period, based on the difference between two measurements. Signal-to-signal comparison involves a variety of human, instrumental, and environmental error sources; of these, some propagate additively and some multiplicatively. In a difference calculation, specific errors in the first measurement may be correlated with the corresponding errors in the second; others may be independent. Each of the error sources needs to be identified and quantified individually, as does its distribution in the field data. A mathematical framework for the propagation of the errors can then be used to assess the sensitivity of the overall uncertainty to each individual error component. This paper quantifies error sources affecting eddy current sizing estimates and presents analytical expressions developed for their effect on depth estimates. A simple case study is used to model the analysis process. For each error source, the distribution of the field data was assessed and propagated through the analytical expressions. While the sizing error obtained was consistent with earlier estimates and with deviations from ultrasonic depth measurements, the error on growth was calculated as significantly smaller than that obtained assuming uncorrelated errors. An interesting result of the sensitivity analysis in the present case study is the quantification of the error reduction available from post-measurement compensation of magnetite effects. With the absolute and difference error equations, variance-covariance matrices, and partial derivatives developed in

Applications of human error analysis to aviation and space operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

1998-01-01

For the past several years at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) we have been working to apply methods of human error analysis to the design of complex systems. We have focused on adapting human reliability analysis (HRA) methods that were developed for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for application to system design. We are developing methods so that human errors can be systematically identified during system design, the potential consequences of each error can be assessed, and potential corrective actions (e.g. changes to system design or procedures) can be identified. These applications lead to different requirements when compared with HR.As performed as part of a PSA. For example, because the analysis will begin early during the design stage, the methods must be usable when only partial design information is available. In addition, the ability to perform numerous ''what if'' analyses to identify and compare multiple design alternatives is essential. Finally, since the goals of such human error analyses focus on proactive design changes rather than the estimate of failure probabilities for PRA, there is more emphasis on qualitative evaluations of error relationships and causal factors than on quantitative estimates of error frequency. The primary vehicle we have used to develop and apply these methods has been a series of prqjects sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to apply human error analysis to aviation operations. The first NASA-sponsored project had the goal to evaluate human errors caused by advanced cockpit automation. Our next aviation project focused on the development of methods and tools to apply human error analysis to the design of commercial aircraft. This project was performed by a consortium comprised of INEEL, NASA, and Boeing Commercial Airplane Group. The focus of the project was aircraft design and procedures that could lead to human errors during airplane maintenance

Estimation of Branch Topology Errors in Power Networks by WLAN State Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hong Rae [Soonchunhyang University(Korea); Song, Kyung Bin [Kei Myoung University(Korea)

2000-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to detect and identify topological errors in order to maintain a reliable database for the state estimator. In this paper, a two stage estimation procedure is used to identify the topology errors. At the first stage, the WLAV state estimator which has characteristics to remove bad data during the estimation procedure is run for finding out the suspected branches at which topology errors take place. The resulting residuals are normalized and the measurements with significant normalized residuals are selected. A set of suspected branches is formed based on these selected measurements; if the selected measurement if a line flow, the corresponding branch is suspected; if it is an injection, then all the branches connecting the injection bus to its immediate neighbors are suspected. A new WLAV state estimator adding the branch flow errors in the state vector is developed to identify the branch topology errors. Sample cases of single topology error and topology error with a measurement error are applied to IEEE 14 bus test system. (author). 24 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs.

Clock error models for simulation and estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meditch, J.S.

1981-10-01

Mathematical models for the simulation and estimation of errors in precision oscillators used as time references in satellite navigation systems are developed. The results, based on all currently known oscillator error sources, are directly implementable on a digital computer. The simulation formulation is sufficiently flexible to allow for the inclusion or exclusion of individual error sources as desired. The estimation algorithms, following from Kalman filter theory, provide directly for the error analysis of clock errors in both filtering and prediction

Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

Science.gov (United States)

Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

2017-12-01

Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Enhanced Pedestrian Navigation Based on Course Angle Error Estimation Using Cascaded Kalman Filters.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jin Woo; Park, Chan Gook

2018-04-21

An enhanced pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) based navigation algorithm, which uses two cascaded Kalman filters (TCKF) for the estimation of course angle and navigation errors, is proposed. The proposed algorithm uses a foot-mounted inertial measurement unit (IMU), waist-mounted magnetic sensors, and a zero velocity update (ZUPT) based inertial navigation technique with TCKF. The first stage filter estimates the course angle error of a human, which is closely related to the heading error of the IMU. In order to obtain the course measurements, the filter uses magnetic sensors and a position-trace based course angle. For preventing magnetic disturbance from contaminating the estimation, the magnetic sensors are attached to the waistband. Because the course angle error is mainly due to the heading error of the IMU, and the characteristic error of the heading angle is highly dependent on that of the course angle, the estimated course angle error is used as a measurement for estimating the heading error in the second stage filter. At the second stage, an inertial navigation system-extended Kalman filter-ZUPT (INS-EKF-ZUPT) method is adopted. As the heading error is estimated directly by using course-angle error measurements, the estimation accuracy for the heading and yaw gyro bias can be enhanced, compared with the ZUPT-only case, which eventually enhances the position accuracy more efficiently. The performance enhancements are verified via experiments, and the way-point position error for the proposed method is compared with those for the ZUPT-only case and with other cases that use ZUPT and various types of magnetic heading measurements. The results show that the position errors are reduced by a maximum of 90% compared with the conventional ZUPT based PDR algorithms.

Human Errors in Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan

2005-01-01

The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...

A theory of human error

Science.gov (United States)

Mcruer, D. T.; Clement, W. F.; Allen, R. W.

1981-01-01

Human errors tend to be treated in terms of clinical and anecdotal descriptions, from which remedial measures are difficult to derive. Correction of the sources of human error requires an attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A comprehensive analytical theory of the cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error is indispensable to a reconstruction of the underlying and contributing causes. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation, maritime, automotive, and process control operations is highlighted. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error.

Object Detection and Tracking-Based Camera Calibration for Normalized Human Height Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaehoon Jung

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a normalized human height estimation algorithm using an uncalibrated camera. To estimate the normalized human height, the proposed algorithm detects a moving object and performs tracking-based automatic camera calibration. The proposed method consists of three steps: (i moving human detection and tracking, (ii automatic camera calibration, and (iii human height estimation and error correction. The proposed method automatically calibrates camera by detecting moving humans and estimates the human height using error correction. The proposed method can be applied to object-based video surveillance systems and digital forensic.

Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

CERN Document Server

Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

2017-01-01

This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

Estimation of subcriticality of TCA using 'indirect estimation method for calculation error'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naito, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Toshihiro; Arakawa, Takuya; Sakurai, Kiyoshi

1996-01-01

To estimate the subcriticality of neutron multiplication factor in a fissile system, 'Indirect Estimation Method for Calculation Error' is proposed. This method obtains the calculational error of neutron multiplication factor by correlating measured values with the corresponding calculated ones. This method was applied to the source multiplication and to the pulse neutron experiments conducted at TCA, and the calculation error of MCNP 4A was estimated. In the source multiplication method, the deviation of measured neutron count rate distributions from the calculated ones estimates the accuracy of calculated k eff . In the pulse neutron method, the calculation errors of prompt neutron decay constants give the accuracy of the calculated k eff . (author)

HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

2008-09-01

This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

Error estimation and adaptivity for incompressible hyperelasticity

KAUST Repository

Whiteley, J.P.

2014-04-30

SUMMARY: A Galerkin FEM is developed for nonlinear, incompressible (hyper) elasticity that takes account of nonlinearities in both the strain tensor and the relationship between the strain tensor and the stress tensor. By using suitably defined linearised dual problems with appropriate boundary conditions, a posteriori error estimates are then derived for both linear functionals of the solution and linear functionals of the stress on a boundary, where Dirichlet boundary conditions are applied. A second, higher order method for calculating a linear functional of the stress on a Dirichlet boundary is also presented together with an a posteriori error estimator for this approach. An implementation for a 2D model problem with known solution, where the entries of the strain tensor exhibit large, rapid variations, demonstrates the accuracy and sharpness of the error estimators. Finally, using a selection of model problems, the a posteriori error estimate is shown to provide a basis for effective mesh adaptivity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding human management of automation errors

Science.gov (United States)

McBride, Sara E.; Rogers, Wendy A.; Fisk, Arthur D.

2013-01-01

Automation has the potential to aid humans with a diverse set of tasks and support overall system performance. Automated systems are not always reliable, and when automation errs, humans must engage in error management, which is the process of detecting, understanding, and correcting errors. However, this process of error management in the context of human-automation interaction is not well understood. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review of the variables that contribute to error management. We examined relevant research in human-automation interaction and human error to identify critical automation, person, task, and emergent variables. We propose a framework for management of automation errors to incorporate and build upon previous models. Further, our analysis highlights variables that may be addressed through design and training to positively influence error management. Additional efforts to understand the error management process will contribute to automation designed and implemented to support safe and effective system performance. PMID:25383042

A qualitative description of human error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhaohuan

1992-11-01

The human error has an important contribution to risk of reactor operation. The insight and analytical model are main parts in human reliability analysis. It consists of the concept of human error, the nature, the mechanism of generation, the classification and human performance influence factors. On the operating reactor the human error is defined as the task-human-machine mismatch. The human error event is focused on the erroneous action and the unfavored result. From the time limitation of performing a task, the operation is divided into time-limited and time-opened. The HCR (human cognitive reliability) model is suited for only time-limited. The basic cognitive process consists of the information gathering, cognition/thinking, decision making and action. The human erroneous action may be generated in any stage of this process. The more natural ways to classify human errors are presented. The human performance influence factors including personal, organizational and environmental factors are also listed

A qualitative description of human error

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhaohuan, Li [Academia Sinica, Beijing, BJ (China). Inst. of Atomic Energy

1992-11-01

The human error has an important contribution to risk of reactor operation. The insight and analytical model are main parts in human reliability analysis. It consists of the concept of human error, the nature, the mechanism of generation, the classification and human performance influence factors. On the operating reactor the human error is defined as the task-human-machine mismatch. The human error event is focused on the erroneous action and the unfavored result. From the time limitation of performing a task, the operation is divided into time-limited and time-opened. The HCR (human cognitive reliability) model is suited for only time-limited. The basic cognitive process consists of the information gathering, cognition/thinking, decision making and action. The human erroneous action may be generated in any stage of this process. The more natural ways to classify human errors are presented. The human performance influence factors including personal, organizational and environmental factors are also listed.

A Simulation-Based Soft Error Estimation Methodology for Computer Systems

OpenAIRE

Sugihara, Makoto; Ishihara, Tohru; Hashimoto, Koji; Muroyama, Masanori

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a simulation-based soft error estimation methodology for computer systems. Accumulating soft error rates (SERs) of all memories in a computer system results in pessimistic soft error estimation. This is because memory cells are used spatially and temporally and not all soft errors in them make the computer system faulty. Our soft-error estimation methodology considers the locations and the timings of soft errors occurring at every level of memory hierarchy and estimates th...

A posteriori error estimates in voice source recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Leonov, A. S.; Sorokin, V. N.

2017-12-01

The inverse problem of voice source pulse recovery from a segment of a speech signal is under consideration. A special mathematical model is used for the solution that relates these quantities. A variational method of solving inverse problem of voice source recovery for a new parametric class of sources, that is for piecewise-linear sources (PWL-sources), is proposed. Also, a technique for a posteriori numerical error estimation for obtained solutions is presented. A computer study of the adequacy of adopted speech production model with PWL-sources is performed in solving the inverse problems for various types of voice signals, as well as corresponding study of a posteriori error estimates. Numerical experiments for speech signals show satisfactory properties of proposed a posteriori error estimates, which represent the upper bounds of possible errors in solving the inverse problem. The estimate of the most probable error in determining the source-pulse shapes is about 7-8% for the investigated speech material. It is noted that a posteriori error estimates can be used as a criterion of the quality for obtained voice source pulses in application to speaker recognition.

CTER—Rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Penczek, Pawel A., E-mail: Pawel.A.Penczek@uth.tmc.edu [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Fang, Jia [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan [The Keck Advanced Microscopy Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M.T. [Institut für Medizinische Physik und Biophysik, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

2014-05-01

In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300 kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03 Å without, and 3.85 Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. - Highlights: • We describe methodology for estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment. • Error estimates provide means for automated elimination of inferior micrographs. • High computational efficiency allows real-time monitoring of EM data quality. • Accurate CTF estimation yields structure of the 80S human ribosome at 3.85 Å.

Comparison of risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and LaSalle PRAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.; Higgins, J.

1991-01-01

This paper describes the comparative analyses of plant risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and La Salle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRAs). These analyses were performed to determine the reasons for the observed differences in the sensitivity of core melt frequency (CMF) to changes in human error probabilities (HEPs). Plant-specific design features, PRA methods, and the level of detail and assumptions in the human error modeling were evaluated to assess their influence risk estimates and sensitivities

Human Errors and Bridge Management Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, A. S.

on basis of reliability profiles for bridges without human errors are extended to include bridges with human errors. The first rehabilitation distributions for bridges without and with human errors are combined into a joint first rehabilitation distribution. The methodology presented is illustrated...... for reinforced concrete bridges....

Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rabiul Islam

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man–machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions

Error estimation for variational nodal calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, H.; Lewis, E.E.

1998-01-01

Adaptive grid methods are widely employed in finite element solutions to both solid and fluid mechanics problems. Either the size of the element is reduced (h refinement) or the order of the trial function is increased (p refinement) locally to improve the accuracy of the solution without a commensurate increase in computational effort. Success of these methods requires effective local error estimates to determine those parts of the problem domain where the solution should be refined. Adaptive methods have recently been applied to the spatial variables of the discrete ordinates equations. As a first step in the development of adaptive methods that are compatible with the variational nodal method, the authors examine error estimates for use in conjunction with spatial variables. The variational nodal method lends itself well to p refinement because the space-angle trial functions are hierarchical. Here they examine an error estimator for use with spatial p refinement for the diffusion approximation. Eventually, angular refinement will also be considered using spherical harmonics approximations

Game Design Principles based on Human Error

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guilherme Zaffari

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper displays the result of the authors’ research regarding to the incorporation of Human Error, through design principles, to video game design. In a general way, designers must consider Human Error factors throughout video game interface development; however, when related to its core design, adaptations are in need, since challenge is an important factor for fun and under the perspective of Human Error, challenge can be considered as a flaw in the system. The research utilized Human Error classifications, data triangulation via predictive human error analysis, and the expanded flow theory to allow the design of a set of principles in order to match the design of playful challenges with the principles of Human Error. From the results, it was possible to conclude that the application of Human Error in game design has a positive effect on player experience, allowing it to interact only with errors associated with the intended aesthetics of the game.

Human errors in NPP operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng Jufang

1993-01-01

Based on the operational experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs), the importance of studying human performance problems is described. Statistical analysis on the significance or frequency of various root-causes and error-modes from a large number of human-error-related events demonstrate that the defects in operation/maintenance procedures, working place factors, communication and training practices are primary root-causes, while omission, transposition, quantitative mistake are the most frequent among the error-modes. Recommendations about domestic research on human performance problem in NPPs are suggested

Human errors, countermeasures for their prevention and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohda, Takehisa; Inoue, Koichi

1992-01-01

The accidents originated in human errors have occurred as ever in recent large accidents such as the TMI accident and the Chernobyl accident. The proportion of the accidents originated in human errors is unexpectedly high, therefore, the reliability and safety of hardware are improved hereafter, but the improvement of human reliability cannot be expected. Human errors arise by the difference between the function required for men and the function actually accomplished by men, and the results exert some adverse effect to systems. Human errors are classified into design error, manufacture error, operation error, maintenance error, checkup error and general handling error. In terms of behavior, human errors are classified into forget to do, fail to do, do that must not be done, mistake in order and do at improper time. The factors in human error occurrence are circumstantial factor, personal factor and stress factor. As the method of analyzing and evaluating human errors, system engineering method such as probabilistic risk assessment is used. The technique for human error rate prediction, the method for human cognitive reliability, confusion matrix and SLIM-MAUD are also used. (K.I.)

Research trend on human error reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyaoka, Sadaoki

1990-01-01

Human error has been the problem in all industries. In 1988, the Bureau of Mines, Department of the Interior, USA, carried out the worldwide survey on the human error in all industries in relation to the fatal accidents in mines. There was difference in the results according to the methods of collecting data, but the proportion that human error took in the total accidents distributed in the wide range of 20∼85%, and was 35% on the average. The rate of occurrence of accidents and troubles in Japanese nuclear power stations is shown, and the rate of occurrence of human error is 0∼0.5 cases/reactor-year, which did not much vary. Therefore, the proportion that human error took in the total tended to increase, and it has become important to reduce human error for lowering the rate of occurrence of accidents and troubles hereafter. After the TMI accident in 1979 in USA, the research on man-machine interface became active, and after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 in USSR, the problem of organization and management has been studied. In Japan, 'Safety 21' was drawn up by the Advisory Committee for Energy, and also the annual reports on nuclear safety pointed out the importance of human factors. The state of the research on human factors in Japan and abroad and three targets to reduce human error are reported. (K.I.)

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

Data error effects on net radiation and evapotranspiration estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llasat, M.C.; Snyder, R.L.

1998-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential error in estimating the net radiation and reference evapotranspiration resulting from errors in the measurement or estimation of weather parameters. A methodology for estimating the net radiation using hourly weather variables measured at a typical agrometeorological station (e.g., solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity) is presented. Then the error propagation analysis is made for net radiation and for reference evapotranspiration. Data from the Raimat weather station, which is located in the Catalonia region of Spain, are used to illustrate the error relationships. The results show that temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover errors have little effect on the net radiation or reference evapotranspiration. A 5°C error in estimating surface temperature leads to errors as big as 30 W m −2 at high temperature. A 4% solar radiation (R s ) error can cause a net radiation error as big as 26 W m −2 when R s ≈ 1000 W m −2 . However, the error is less when cloud cover is calculated as a function of the solar radiation. The absolute error in reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) equals the product of the net radiation error and the radiation term weighting factor [W = Δ(Δ1+γ)] in the ET o equation. Therefore, the ET o error varies between 65 and 85% of the R n error as air temperature increases from about 20° to 40°C. (author)

Error Covariance Estimation of Mesoscale Data Assimilation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Xu, Qin

2005-01-01

The goal of this project is to explore and develop new methods of error covariance estimation that will provide necessary statistical descriptions of prediction and observation errors for mesoscale data assimilation...

A framework to estimate probability of diagnosis error in NPP advanced MCR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Kim, Jong Hyun; Jang, Inseok; Seong, Poong Hyun

2018-01-01

Highlights: •As new type of MCR has been installed in NPPs, the work environment is considerably changed. •A new framework to estimate operators’ diagnosis error probabilities should be proposed. •Diagnosis error data were extracted from the full-scope simulator of the advanced MCR. •Using Bayesian inference, a TRC model was updated for use in advanced MCR. -- Abstract: Recently, a new type of main control room (MCR) has been adopted in nuclear power plants (NPPs). The new MCR, known as the advanced MCR, consists of digitalized human-system interfaces (HSIs), computer-based procedures (CPS), and soft controls while the conventional MCR includes many alarm tiles, analog indicators, hard-wired control devices, and paper-based procedures. These changes significantly affect the generic activities of the MCR operators, in relation to diagnostic activities. The aim of this paper is to suggest a framework to estimate the probabilities of diagnosis errors in the advanced MCR by updating a time reliability correlation (TRC) model. Using Bayesian inference, the TRC model was updated with the probabilities of diagnosis errors. Here, the diagnosis error data were collected from a full-scope simulator of the advanced MCR. To do this, diagnosis errors were determined based on an information processing model and their probabilities were calculated. However, these calculated probabilities of diagnosis errors were largely affected by context factors such as procedures, HSI, training, and others, known as PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors). In order to obtain the nominal diagnosis error probabilities, the weightings of PSFs were also evaluated. Then, with the nominal diagnosis error probabilities, the TRC model was updated. This led to the proposal of a framework to estimate the nominal probabilities of diagnosis errors in the advanced MCR.

A human error probability estimate methodology based on fuzzy inference and expert judgment on nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nascimento, C.S. do; Mesquita, R.N. de

2009-01-01

Recent studies point human error as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl and Challenger (1986) are classical examples. Human contribution to these accidents may be better understood and analyzed by using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), which has being taken as an essential part on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear plants. Both HRA and PSA depend on Human Error Probability (HEP) for a quantitative analysis. These probabilities are extremely affected by the Performance Shaping Factors (PSF), which has a direct effect on human behavior and thus shape HEP according with specific environment conditions and personal individual characteristics which are responsible for these actions. This PSF dependence raises a great problem on data availability as turn these scarcely existent database too much generic or too much specific. Besides this, most of nuclear plants do not keep historical records of human error occurrences. Therefore, in order to overcome this occasional data shortage, a methodology based on Fuzzy Inference and expert judgment was employed in this paper in order to determine human error occurrence probabilities and to evaluate PSF's on performed actions by operators in a nuclear power plant (IEA-R1 nuclear reactor). Obtained HEP values were compared with reference tabled data used on current literature in order to show method coherence and valid approach. This comparison leads to a conclusion that this work results are able to be employed both on HRA and PSA enabling efficient prospection of plant safety conditions, operational procedures and local working conditions potential improvements (author)

Collection of offshore human error probability data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basra, Gurpreet; Kirwan, Barry

1998-01-01

Accidents such as Piper Alpha have increased concern about the effects of human errors in complex systems. Such accidents can in theory be predicted and prevented by risk assessment, and in particular human reliability assessment (HRA), but HRA ideally requires qualitative and quantitative human error data. A research initiative at the University of Birmingham led to the development of CORE-DATA, a Computerised Human Error Data Base. This system currently contains a reasonably large number of human error data points, collected from a variety of mainly nuclear-power related sources. This article outlines a recent offshore data collection study, concerned with collecting lifeboat evacuation data. Data collection methods are outlined and a selection of human error probabilities generated as a result of the study are provided. These data give insights into the type of errors and human failure rates that could be utilised to support offshore risk analyses

Estimation of the measurement error of eccentrically installed orifice plates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barton, Neil; Hodgkinson, Edwin; Reader-Harris, Michael

2005-07-01

The presentation discusses methods for simulation and estimation of flow measurement errors. The main conclusions are: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation methods and published test measurements have been used to estimate the error of a metering system over a period when its orifice plates were eccentric and when leaking O-rings allowed some gas to bypass the meter. It was found that plate eccentricity effects would result in errors of between -2% and -3% for individual meters. Validation against test data suggests that these estimates of error should be within 1% of the actual error, but it is unclear whether the simulations over-estimate or under-estimate the error. Simulations were also run to assess how leakage at the periphery affects the metering error. Various alternative leakage scenarios were modelled and it was found that the leakage rate has an effect on the error, but that the leakage distribution does not. Correction factors, based on the CFD results, were then used to predict the system's mis-measurement over a three-year period (tk)

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roe, Byron P. [Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)]. E-mail: byronroe@umich.edu

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k{sup 2}.

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roe, Byron P.

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k 2

A Human Error Analysis with Physiological Signals during Utilizing Digital Devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Yong Hee; Oh, Yeon Ju; Shin, Kwang Hyeon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

The introduction of advanced MCR is accompanied with lots of changes and different forms and features through the virtue of new digital technologies. There are various kinds of digital devices such as flat panel displays, touch screens, and so on. The characteristics of these digital devices give many chances to the interface management, and can be integrated into a compact single workstation in an advanced MCR so that workers can operate the plant with minimum burden during any operating condition. However, these devices may introduce new types of human errors, and thus we need a means to evaluate and prevent such error, especially those related to the digital devices. Human errors have been retrospectively assessed for accident reviews and quantitatively evaluated through HRA for PSA. However, the ergonomic verification and validation is an important process to defend all human error potential in the NPP design. HRA is a crucial part of a PSA, and helps in preparing a countermeasure for design by drawing potential human error items that affect the overall safety of NPPs. Various HRA techniques are available however: they reveal shortages of the HMI design in the digital era. - HRA techniques depend on PSFs: this means that the scope dealing with human factors is previously limited, and thus all attributes of new digital devices may not be considered in HRA. - The data used to HRA are not close to the evaluation items. So, human error analysis is not easy to apply to design by several individual experiments and cases. - The results of HRA are not statistically meaningful because accidents including human errors in NPPs are rare and have been estimated as having an extremely low probability

Basic human error probabilities in advanced MCRs when using soft control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, In Seok; Seong, Poong Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Lee, Seung Jun

2012-01-01

In a report on one of the renowned HRA methods, Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), it is pointed out that 'The paucity of actual data on human performance continues to be a major problem for estimating HEPs and performance times in nuclear power plant (NPP) task'. However, another critical difficulty is that most current HRA databases deal with operation in conventional type of MCRs. With the adoption of new human system interfaces that are based on computer based technologies, the operation environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed. The MCRs including these digital and computer technologies, such as large display panels, computerized procedures, soft controls, and so on, are called advanced MCRs. Because of the different interfaces, different Basic Human Error Probabilities (BHEPs) should be considered in human reliability analyses (HRAs) for advanced MCRs. This study carries out an empirical analysis of human error considering soft controls. The aim of this work is not only to compile a database using the simulator for advanced MCRs but also to compare BHEPs with those of a conventional MCR database

A Human Reliability Analysis of Post- Accident Human Errors in the Low Power and Shutdown PSA of KSNP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Daeil; Kim, J. H.; Jang, S. C

2007-03-15

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, using the ANS low power and shutdown (LPSD) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Standard, evaluated the LPSD PSA model of the KSNP, Yonggwang Units 5 and 6, and identified the items to be improved. The evaluation results of human reliability analysis (HRA) of the post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP showed that 10 items among 19 items of supporting requirements for those in the ANS PRA Standard were identified as them to be improved. Thus, we newly carried out a HRA for post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP. Following tasks are the improvements in the HRA of post-accident human errors of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP compared with the previous one: Interviews with operators in the interpretation of the procedure, modeling of operator actions, and the quantification results of human errors, site visit. Applications of limiting value to the combined post-accident human errors. Documentation of information of all the input and bases for the detailed quantifications and the dependency analysis using the quantification sheets The assessment results for the new HRA results of post-accident human errors using the ANS LPSD PRA Standard show that above 80% items of its supporting requirements for post-accident human errors were graded as its Category II. The number of the re-estimated human errors using the LPSD Korea Standard HRA method is 385. Among them, the number of individual post-accident human errors is 253. The number of dependent post-accident human errors is 135. The quantification results of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP with new HEPs show that core damage frequency (CDF) is increased by 5.1% compared with the previous baseline CDF It is expected that this study results will be greatly helpful to improve the PSA quality for the domestic nuclear power plants because they have sufficient PSA quality to meet the Category II of Supporting Requirements for the post

A Human Reliability Analysis of Post- Accident Human Errors in the Low Power and Shutdown PSA of KSNP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Daeil; Kim, J. H.; Jang, S. C.

2007-03-01

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, using the ANS low power and shutdown (LPSD) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Standard, evaluated the LPSD PSA model of the KSNP, Yonggwang Units 5 and 6, and identified the items to be improved. The evaluation results of human reliability analysis (HRA) of the post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP showed that 10 items among 19 items of supporting requirements for those in the ANS PRA Standard were identified as them to be improved. Thus, we newly carried out a HRA for post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP. Following tasks are the improvements in the HRA of post-accident human errors of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP compared with the previous one: Interviews with operators in the interpretation of the procedure, modeling of operator actions, and the quantification results of human errors, site visit. Applications of limiting value to the combined post-accident human errors. Documentation of information of all the input and bases for the detailed quantifications and the dependency analysis using the quantification sheets The assessment results for the new HRA results of post-accident human errors using the ANS LPSD PRA Standard show that above 80% items of its supporting requirements for post-accident human errors were graded as its Category II. The number of the re-estimated human errors using the LPSD Korea Standard HRA method is 385. Among them, the number of individual post-accident human errors is 253. The number of dependent post-accident human errors is 135. The quantification results of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP with new HEPs show that core damage frequency (CDF) is increased by 5.1% compared with the previous baseline CDF It is expected that this study results will be greatly helpful to improve the PSA quality for the domestic nuclear power plants because they have sufficient PSA quality to meet the Category II of Supporting Requirements for the post

Error Estimation and Accuracy Improvements in Nodal Transport Methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamonsky, O.M.

2000-01-01

The accuracy of the solutions produced by the Discrete Ordinates neutron transport nodal methods is analyzed.The obtained new numerical methodologies increase the accuracy of the analyzed scheems and give a POSTERIORI error estimators. The accuracy improvement is obtained with new equations that make the numerical procedure free of truncation errors and proposing spatial reconstructions of the angular fluxes that are more accurate than those used until present. An a POSTERIORI error estimator is rigurously obtained for one dimensional systems that, in certain type of problems, allows to quantify the accuracy of the solutions. From comparisons with the one dimensional results, an a POSTERIORI error estimator is also obtained for multidimensional systems. LOCAL indicators, which quantify the spatial distribution of the errors, are obtained by the decomposition of the menctioned estimators. This makes the proposed methodology suitable to perform adaptive calculations. Some numerical examples are presented to validate the theoretical developements and to illustrate the ranges where the proposed approximations are valid

Analysis of Employee's Survey for Preventing Human-Errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung, Chanho; Kim, Younggab; Joung, Sanghoun

2013-01-01

Human errors in nuclear power plant can cause large and small events or incidents. These events or incidents are one of main contributors of reactor trip and might threaten the safety of nuclear plants. To prevent human-errors, KHNP(nuclear power plants) introduced 'Human-error prevention techniques' and have applied the techniques to main parts such as plant operation, operation support, and maintenance and engineering. This paper proposes the methods to prevent and reduce human-errors in nuclear power plants through analyzing survey results which includes the utilization of the human-error prevention techniques and the employees' awareness of preventing human-errors. With regard to human-error prevention, this survey analysis presented the status of the human-error prevention techniques and the employees' awareness of preventing human-errors. Employees' understanding and utilization of the techniques was generally high and training level of employee and training effect on actual works were in good condition. Also, employees answered that the root causes of human-error were due to working environment including tight process, manpower shortage, and excessive mission rather than personal negligence or lack of personal knowledge. Consideration of working environment is certainly needed. At the present time, based on analyzing this survey, the best methods of preventing human-error are personal equipment, training/education substantiality, private mental health check before starting work, prohibit of multiple task performing, compliance with procedures, and enhancement of job site review. However, the most important and basic things for preventing human-error are interests of workers and organizational atmosphere such as communication between managers and workers, and communication between employees and bosses

Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

Statistical evaluation of major human errors during the development of new technological systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, G; Ott, K.O.

1979-01-01

Statistical procedures are presented to evaluate major human errors during the development of a new system, errors that have led or can lead to accidents or major failures. The first procedure aims at estimating the average residual occurrence rate for s or major failures after several have occurred. The procedure is solely based on the historical record. Certain idealizations are introduced that allow the application of a sound statistical evaluation procedure. These idealizations are practically realized to a sufficient degree such that the proposed estimation procedure yields meaningful results, even for situations with a sparse data base, represented by very few accidents. Under the assumption that the possible human-error-related failure times have exponential distributions, the statistical technique of isotonic regression is proposed to estimate the failure rates due to human design error at the failure times of the system. The last value in the sequence of estimates gives the residual accident chance. In addition, theactual situation is tested against the hypothesis that the failure rate of the system remains constant over time. This test determines the chance for a decreasing failure rate being incidental, rather than an indication of an actual learning process. Both techniques can be applied not merely to a single system but to an entire series of similar systems that a technology would generate, enabling the assessment of technological improvement. For the purpose of illustration, the nuclear decay of isotopes was chosen as an example, since the assumptions of the model are rigorously satisfied in this case. This application shows satisfactory agreement of the estimated and actual failure rates (which are exactly known in this example), although the estimation was deliberately based on a sparse historical record

Errors and parameter estimation in precipitation-runoff modeling: 1. Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Troutman, Brent M.

1985-01-01

Errors in complex conceptual precipitation-runoff models may be analyzed by placing them into a statistical framework. This amounts to treating the errors as random variables and defining the probabilistic structure of the errors. By using such a framework, a large array of techniques, many of which have been presented in the statistical literature, becomes available to the modeler for quantifying and analyzing the various sources of error. A number of these techniques are reviewed in this paper, with special attention to the peculiarities of hydrologic models. Known methodologies for parameter estimation (calibration) are particularly applicable for obtaining physically meaningful estimates and for explaining how bias in runoff prediction caused by model error and input error may contribute to bias in parameter estimation.

Human error in remote Afterloading Brachytherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quinn, M.L.; Callan, J.; Schoenfeld, I.; Serig, D.

1994-01-01

Remote Afterloading Brachytherapy (RAB) is a medical process used in the treatment of cancer. RAB uses a computer-controlled device to remotely insert and remove radioactive sources close to a target (or tumor) in the body. Some RAB problems affecting the radiation dose to the patient have been reported and attributed to human error. To determine the root cause of human error in the RAB system, a human factors team visited 23 RAB treatment sites in the US. The team observed RAB treatment planning and delivery, interviewed RAB personnel, and performed walk-throughs, during which staff demonstrated the procedures and practices used in performing RAB tasks. Factors leading to human error in the RAB system were identified. The impact of those factors on the performance of RAB was then evaluated and prioritized in terms of safety significance. Finally, the project identified and evaluated alternative approaches for resolving the safety significant problems related to human error

Human Error Assessmentin Minefield Cleaning Operation Using Human Event Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Hajiakbari

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background & objective: Human error is one of the main causes of accidents. Due to the unreliability of the human element and the high-risk nature of demining operations, this study aimed to assess and manage human errors likely to occur in such operations. Methods: This study was performed at a demining site in war zones located in the West of Iran. After acquiring an initial familiarity with the operations, methods, and tools of clearing minefields, job task related to clearing landmines were specified. Next, these tasks were studied using HTA and related possible errors were assessed using ATHEANA. Results: de-mining task was composed of four main operations, including primary detection, technical identification, investigation, and neutralization. There were found four main reasons for accidents occurring in such operations; walking on the mines, leaving mines with no action, error in neutralizing operation and environmental explosion. The possibility of human error in mine clearance operations was calculated as 0.010. Conclusion: The main causes of human error in de-mining operations can be attributed to various factors such as poor weather and operating conditions like outdoor work, inappropriate personal protective equipment, personality characteristics, insufficient accuracy in the work, and insufficient time available. To reduce the probability of human error in de-mining operations, the aforementioned factors should be managed properly.

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

Science.gov (United States)

Roe, Byron P.

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k2. The specific terms unisim and multisim were coined by Peter Meyers and Steve Brice, respectively, for the MiniBooNE experiment. However, the concepts have been developed over time and have been in general use for some time.

Error estimates for ice discharge calculated using the flux gate approach

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, F. J.; Sánchez Gámez, P.

2017-12-01

Ice discharge to the ocean is usually estimated using the flux gate approach, in which ice flux is calculated through predefined flux gates close to the marine glacier front. However, published results usually lack a proper error estimate. In the flux calculation, both errors in cross-sectional area and errors in velocity are relevant. While for estimating the errors in velocity there are well-established procedures, the calculation of the error in the cross-sectional area requires the availability of ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles transverse to the ice-flow direction. In this contribution, we use IceBridge operation GPR profiles collected in Ellesmere and Devon Islands, Nunavut, Canada, to compare the cross-sectional areas estimated using various approaches with the cross-sections estimated from GPR ice-thickness data. These error estimates are combined with those for ice-velocities calculated from Sentinel-1 SAR data, to get the error in ice discharge. Our preliminary results suggest, regarding area, that the parabolic cross-section approaches perform better than the quartic ones, which tend to overestimate the cross-sectional area for flight lines close to the central flowline. Furthermore, the results show that regional ice-discharge estimates made using parabolic approaches provide reasonable results, but estimates for individual glaciers can have large errors, up to 20% in cross-sectional area.

Estimation error algorithm at analysis of beta-spectra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakovets, N.V.; Zhukovskij, A.I.; Zubarev, V.N.; Khadzhinov, E.M.

2005-01-01

This work describes the estimation error algorithm at the operations with beta-spectrums, as well as compares the theoretical and experimental errors by the processing of beta-channel's data. (authors)

A Posteriori Error Estimation for Finite Element Methods and Iterative Linear Solvers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melboe, Hallgeir

2001-10-01

This thesis addresses a posteriori error estimation for finite element methods and iterative linear solvers. Adaptive finite element methods have gained a lot of popularity over the last decades due to their ability to produce accurate results with limited computer power. In these methods a posteriori error estimates play an essential role. Not only do they give information about how large the total error is, they also indicate which parts of the computational domain should be given a more sophisticated treatment in order to reduce the error. A posteriori error estimates are traditionally aimed at estimating the global error, but more recently so called goal oriented error estimators have been shown a lot of interest. The name reflects the fact that they estimate the error in user-defined local quantities. In this thesis the main focus is on global error estimators for highly stretched grids and goal oriented error estimators for flow problems on regular grids. Numerical methods for partial differential equations, such as finite element methods and other similar techniques, typically result in a linear system of equations that needs to be solved. Usually such systems are solved using some iterative procedure which due to a finite number of iterations introduces an additional error. Most such algorithms apply the residual in the stopping criterion, whereas the control of the actual error may be rather poor. A secondary focus in this thesis is on estimating the errors that are introduced during this last part of the solution procedure. The thesis contains new theoretical results regarding the behaviour of some well known, and a few new, a posteriori error estimators for finite element methods on anisotropic grids. Further, a goal oriented strategy for the computation of forces in flow problems is devised and investigated. Finally, an approach for estimating the actual errors associated with the iterative solution of linear systems of equations is suggested. (author)

Approaches to relativistic positioning around Earth and error estimations

Science.gov (United States)

Puchades, Neus; Sáez, Diego

2016-01-01

In the context of relativistic positioning, the coordinates of a given user may be calculated by using suitable information broadcast by a 4-tuple of satellites. Our 4-tuples belong to the Galileo constellation. Recently, we estimated the positioning errors due to uncertainties in the satellite world lines (U-errors). A distribution of U-errors was obtained, at various times, in a set of points covering a large region surrounding Earth. Here, the positioning errors associated to the simplifying assumption that photons move in Minkowski space-time (S-errors) are estimated and compared with the U-errors. Both errors have been calculated for the same points and times to make comparisons possible. For a certain realistic modeling of the world line uncertainties, the estimated S-errors have proved to be smaller than the U-errors, which shows that the approach based on the assumption that the Earth's gravitational field produces negligible effects on photons may be used in a large region surrounding Earth. The applicability of this approach - which simplifies numerical calculations - to positioning problems, and the usefulness of our S-error maps, are pointed out. A better approach, based on the assumption that photons move in the Schwarzschild space-time governed by an idealized Earth, is also analyzed. More accurate descriptions of photon propagation involving non symmetric space-time structures are not necessary for ordinary positioning and spacecraft navigation around Earth.

KMRR thermal power measurement error estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhee, B.W.; Sim, B.S.; Lim, I.C.; Oh, S.K.

1990-01-01

The thermal power measurement error of the Korea Multi-purpose Research Reactor has been estimated by a statistical Monte Carlo method, and compared with those obtained by the other methods including deterministic and statistical approaches. The results show that the specified thermal power measurement error of 5% cannot be achieved if the commercial RTDs are used to measure the coolant temperatures of the secondary cooling system and the error can be reduced below the requirement if the commercial RTDs are replaced by the precision RTDs. The possible range of the thermal power control operation has been identified to be from 100% to 20% of full power

Error estimation in plant growth analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Gregorczyk

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The scheme is presented for calculation of errors of dry matter values which occur during approximation of data with growth curves, determined by the analytical method (logistic function and by the numerical method (Richards function. Further formulae are shown, which describe absolute errors of growth characteristics: Growth rate (GR, Relative growth rate (RGR, Unit leaf rate (ULR and Leaf area ratio (LAR. Calculation examples concerning the growth course of oats and maize plants are given. The critical analysis of the estimation of obtained results has been done. The purposefulness of joint application of statistical methods and error calculus in plant growth analysis has been ascertained.

Can human error theory explain non-adherence?

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Nick; Safdar, A; Franklin, Bryoney D

2005-08-01

To apply human error theory to explain non-adherence and examine how well it fits. Patients who were taking chronic medication were telephoned and asked whether they had been adhering to their medicine, and if not the reasons were explored and analysed according to a human error theory. Of 105 patients, 87 were contacted by telephone and they took part in the study. Forty-two recalled being non-adherent, 17 of them in the last 7 days; 11 of the 42 were intentionally non-adherent. The errors could be described by human error theory, and it explained unintentional non-adherence well, however, the application of 'rules' was difficult when considering mistakes. The consideration of error producing conditions and latent failures also revealed useful contributing factors. Human error theory offers a new and valuable way of understanding non-adherence, and could inform interventions. However, the theory needs further development to explain intentional non-adherence.

Human errors in operation - what to do with them?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michalek, J.

2009-01-01

'It is human to make errors!' This saying of our predecessors is still current and will continue to be valid also in the future, until human is a human. Errors cannot be completely eliminated from human activities. In average human makes two simple errors in one hour. For example, how many typing errors do we make while typing on the computer keyboard? How many times we make mistakes in writing the date in the first days of a new year? These errors have no major consequences, however, in certain situations errors of humans are very unpleasant and may be also very costly, they may even endanger human lives. (author)

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2011-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the

SHERPA: A systematic human error reduction and prediction approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1986-01-01

This paper describes a Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach (SHERPA) which is intended to provide guidelines for human error reduction and quantification in a wide range of human-machine systems. The approach utilizes as its basic current cognitive models of human performance. The first module in SHERPA performs task and human error analyses, which identify likely error modes, together with guidelines for the reduction of these errors by training, procedures and equipment redesign. The second module uses a SARAH approach to quantify the probability of occurrence of the errors identified earlier, and provides cost benefit analyses to assist in choosing the appropriate error reduction approaches in the third module

Human Error and Organizational Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alecxandrina DEACONU

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The concern for performance is a topic that raises interest in the businessenvironment but also in other areas that – even if they seem distant from thisworld – are aware of, interested in or conditioned by the economy development.As individual performance is very much influenced by the human resource, wechose to analyze in this paper the mechanisms that generate – consciously or not–human error nowadays.Moreover, the extremely tense Romanian context,where failure is rather a rule than an exception, made us investigate thephenomenon of generating a human error and the ways to diminish its effects.

Aniseikonia quantification: error rate of rule of thumb estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lubkin, V; Shippman, S; Bennett, G; Meininger, D; Kramer, P; Poppinga, P

1999-01-01

To find the error rate in quantifying aniseikonia by using "Rule of Thumb" estimation in comparison with proven space eikonometry. Study 1: 24 adult pseudophakic individuals were measured for anisometropia, and astigmatic interocular difference. Rule of Thumb quantification for prescription was calculated and compared with aniseikonia measurement by the classical Essilor Projection Space Eikonometer. Study 2: parallel analysis was performed on 62 consecutive phakic patients from our strabismus clinic group. Frequency of error: For Group 1 (24 cases): 5 ( or 21 %) were equal (i.e., 1% or less difference); 16 (or 67% ) were greater (more than 1% different); and 3 (13%) were less by Rule of Thumb calculation in comparison to aniseikonia determined on the Essilor eikonometer. For Group 2 (62 cases): 45 (or 73%) were equal (1% or less); 10 (or 16%) were greater; and 7 (or 11%) were lower in the Rule of Thumb calculations in comparison to Essilor eikonometry. Magnitude of error: In Group 1, in 10/24 (29%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 100% or more greater than by space eikonometry, and in 6 of those ten by 200% or more. In Group 2, in 4/62 (6%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 200% or more greater than by space eikonometry. The frequency and magnitude of apparent clinical errors of Rule of Thumb estimation is disturbingly large. This problem is greatly magnified by the time and effort and cost of prescribing and executing an aniseikonic correction for a patient. The higher the refractive error, the greater the anisometropia, and the worse the errors in Rule of Thumb estimation of aniseikonia. Accurate eikonometric methods and devices should be employed in all cases where such measurements can be made. Rule of thumb estimations should be limited to cases where such subjective testing and measurement cannot be performed, as in infants after unilateral cataract surgery.

Human errors related to maintenance and modifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laakso, K.; Pyy, P.; Reiman, L.

1998-01-01

The focus in human reliability analysis (HRA) relating to nuclear power plants has traditionally been on human performance in disturbance conditions. On the other hand, some studies and incidents have shown that also maintenance errors, which have taken place earlier in plant history, may have an impact on the severity of a disturbance, e.g. if they disable safety related equipment. Especially common cause and other dependent failures of safety systems may significantly contribute to the core damage risk. The first aim of the study was to identify and give examples of multiple human errors which have penetrated the various error detection and inspection processes of plant safety barriers. Another objective was to generate numerical safety indicators to describe and forecast the effectiveness of maintenance. A more general objective was to identify needs for further development of maintenance quality and planning. In the first phase of this operational experience feedback analysis, human errors recognisable in connection with maintenance were looked for by reviewing about 4400 failure and repair reports and some special reports which cover two nuclear power plant units on the same site during 1992-94. A special effort was made to study dependent human errors since they are generally the most serious ones. An in-depth root cause analysis was made for 14 dependent errors by interviewing plant maintenance foremen and by thoroughly analysing the errors. A more simple treatment was given to maintenance-related single errors. The results were shown as a distribution of errors among operating states i.a. as regards the following matters: in what operational state the errors were committed and detected; in what operational and working condition the errors were detected, and what component and error type they were related to. These results were presented separately for single and dependent maintenance-related errors. As regards dependent errors, observations were also made

Subroutine library for error estimation of matrix computation (Ver. 1.0)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Shizawa, Yoshihisa; Kishida, Norio

1999-03-01

'Subroutine Library for Error Estimation of Matrix Computation' is a subroutine library which aids the users in obtaining the error ranges of the linear system's solutions or the Hermitian matrices' eigenvalues. This library contains routines for both sequential computers and parallel computers. The subroutines for linear system error estimation calculate norms of residual vectors, matrices's condition numbers, error bounds of solutions and so on. The subroutines for error estimation of Hermitian matrix eigenvalues derive the error ranges of the eigenvalues according to the Korn-Kato's formula. The test matrix generators supply the matrices appeared in the mathematical research, the ones randomly generated and the ones appeared in the application programs. This user's manual contains a brief mathematical background of error analysis on linear algebra and usage of the subroutines. (author)

Estimation of error fields from ferromagnetic parts in ITER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliva, A. Bonito [Fusion for Energy (Spain); Chiariello, A.G.; Formisano, A.; Martone, R. [Ass. EURATOM/ENEA/CREATE, Dip. di Ing. Industriale e dell’Informazione, Seconda Università di Napoli, Via Roma 29, I-81031 Napoli (Italy); Portone, A., E-mail: alfredo.portone@f4e.europa.eu [Fusion for Energy (Spain); Testoni, P. [Fusion for Energy (Spain)

2013-10-15

Highlights: ► The paper deals with error fields generated in ITER by magnetic masses. ► Magnetization state is computed from simplified FEM models. ► Closed form expressions adopted for the flux density of magnetized parts are given. ► Such expressions allow to simplify the estimation of the effect of iron pieces (or lack of) on error field. -- Abstract: Error fields in tokamaks are small departures from the exact axisymmetry of the ideal magnetic field configuration. Their reduction below a threshold value by the error field correction coils is essential since sufficiently large static error fields lead to discharge disruption. The error fields are originated not only by magnets fabrication and installation tolerances, by the joints and by the busbars, but also by the presence of ferromagnetic elements. It was shown that superconducting joints, feeders and busbars play a secondary effect; however in order to estimate of the importance of each possible error field source, rough evaluations can be very useful because it can provide an order of magnitude of the correspondent effect and, therefore, a ranking in the request for in depth analysis. The paper proposes a two steps procedure. The first step aims to get the approximate magnetization state of ferromagnetic parts; the second aims to estimate the full 3D error field over the whole volume using equivalent sources for magnetic masses and taking advantage from well assessed approximate closed form expressions, well suited for the far distance effects.

Error Estimation for Indoor 802.11 Location Fingerprinting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemelson, Hendrik; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun; Hansen, Rene

2009-01-01

providers could adapt their delivered services based on the estimated position error to achieve a higher service quality. Finally, system operators could use the information to inspect whether a location system provides satisfactory positioning accuracy throughout the covered area. For position error...

Notes on human error analysis and prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.

1978-11-01

The notes comprise an introductory discussion of the role of human error analysis and prediction in industrial risk analysis. Following this introduction, different classes of human errors and role in industrial systems are mentioned. Problems related to the prediction of human behaviour in reliability and safety analysis are formulated and ''criteria for analyzability'' which must be met by industrial systems so that a systematic analysis can be performed are suggested. The appendices contain illustrative case stories and a review of human error reports for the task of equipment calibration and testing as found in the US Licensee Event Reports. (author)

Bayesian ensemble approach to error estimation of interatomic potentials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Søren Lund; Jacobsen, Karsten Wedel; Brown, K.S.

2004-01-01

Using a Bayesian approach a general method is developed to assess error bars on predictions made by models fitted to data. The error bars are estimated from fluctuations in ensembles of models sampling the model-parameter space with a probability density set by the minimum cost. The method...... is applied to the development of interatomic potentials for molybdenum using various potential forms and databases based on atomic forces. The calculated error bars on elastic constants, gamma-surface energies, structural energies, and dislocation properties are shown to provide realistic estimates...

Parts of the Whole: Error Estimation for Science Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorothy Wallace

2017-01-01

Full Text Available It is important for science students to understand not only how to estimate error sizes in measurement data, but also to see how these errors contribute to errors in conclusions they may make about the data. Relatively small errors in measurement, errors in assumptions, and roundoff errors in computation may result in large error bounds on computed quantities of interest. In this column, we look closely at a standard method for measuring the volume of cancer tumor xenografts to see how small errors in each of these three factors may contribute to relatively large observed errors in recorded tumor volumes.

Human Errors - A Taxonomy for Describing Human Malfunction in Industrial Installations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1982-01-01

This paper describes the definition and the characteristics of human errors. Different types of human behavior are classified, and their relation to different error mechanisms are analyzed. The effect of conditioning factors related to affective, motivating aspects of the work situation as well...... as physiological factors are also taken into consideration. The taxonomy for event analysis, including human malfunction, is presented. Possibilities for the prediction of human error are discussed. The need for careful studies in actual work situations is expressed. Such studies could provide a better...

The Hurst Phenomenon in Error Estimates Related to Atmospheric Turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Nelson Luís; Crivellaro, Bianca Luhm; Chamecki, Marcelo

2018-05-01

The Hurst phenomenon is a well-known feature of long-range persistence first observed in hydrological and geophysical time series by E. Hurst in the 1950s. It has also been found in several cases in turbulence time series measured in the wind tunnel, the atmosphere, and in rivers. Here, we conduct a systematic investigation of the value of the Hurst coefficient H in atmospheric surface-layer data, and its impact on the estimation of random errors. We show that usually H > 0.5 , which implies the non-existence (in the statistical sense) of the integral time scale. Since the integral time scale is present in the Lumley-Panofsky equation for the estimation of random errors, this has important practical consequences. We estimated H in two principal ways: (1) with an extension of the recently proposed filtering method to estimate the random error (H_p ), and (2) with the classical rescaled range introduced by Hurst (H_R ). Other estimators were tried but were found less able to capture the statistical behaviour of the large scales of turbulence. Using data from three micrometeorological campaigns we found that both first- and second-order turbulence statistics display the Hurst phenomenon. Usually, H_R is larger than H_p for the same dataset, raising the question that one, or even both, of these estimators, may be biased. For the relative error, we found that the errors estimated with the approach adopted by us, that we call the relaxed filtering method, and that takes into account the occurrence of the Hurst phenomenon, are larger than both the filtering method and the classical Lumley-Panofsky estimates. Finally, we found that there is no apparent relationship between H and the Obukhov stability parameter. The relative errors, however, do show stability dependence, particularly in the case of the error of the kinematic momentum flux in unstable conditions, and that of the kinematic sensible heat flux in stable conditions.

Human Error Analysis by Fuzzy-Set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Situmorang, Johnny

1996-01-01

In conventional HRA the probability of Error is treated as a single and exact value through constructing even tree, but in this moment the Fuzzy-Set Theory is used. Fuzzy set theory treat the probability of error as a plausibility which illustrate a linguistic variable. Most parameter or variable in human engineering been defined verbal good, fairly good, worst etc. Which describe a range of any value of probability. For example this analysis is quantified the human error in calibration task, and the probability of miscalibration is very low

Estimation of error components in a multi-error linear regression model, with an application to track fitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fruehwirth, R.

1993-01-01

We present an estimation procedure of the error components in a linear regression model with multiple independent stochastic error contributions. After solving the general problem we apply the results to the estimation of the actual trajectory in track fitting with multiple scattering. (orig.)

Intervention strategies for the management of human error

Science.gov (United States)

Wiener, Earl L.

1993-01-01

This report examines the management of human error in the cockpit. The principles probably apply as well to other applications in the aviation realm (e.g. air traffic control, dispatch, weather, etc.) as well as other high-risk systems outside of aviation (e.g. shipping, high-technology medical procedures, military operations, nuclear power production). Management of human error is distinguished from error prevention. It is a more encompassing term, which includes not only the prevention of error, but also a means of disallowing an error, once made, from adversely affecting system output. Such techniques include: traditional human factors engineering, improvement of feedback and feedforward of information from system to crew, 'error-evident' displays which make erroneous input more obvious to the crew, trapping of errors within a system, goal-sharing between humans and machines (also called 'intent-driven' systems), paperwork management, and behaviorally based approaches, including procedures, standardization, checklist design, training, cockpit resource management, etc. Fifteen guidelines for the design and implementation of intervention strategies are included.

Estimating misclassification error: a closer look at cross-validation based methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ounpraseuth Songthip

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate a classifier’s error in predicting future observations, bootstrap methods have been proposed as reduced-variation alternatives to traditional cross-validation (CV methods based on sampling without replacement. Monte Carlo (MC simulation studies aimed at estimating the true misclassification error conditional on the training set are commonly used to compare CV methods. We conducted an MC simulation study to compare a new method of bootstrap CV (BCV to k-fold CV for estimating clasification error. Findings For the low-dimensional conditions simulated, the modest positive bias of k-fold CV contrasted sharply with the substantial negative bias of the new BCV method. This behavior was corroborated using a real-world dataset of prognostic gene-expression profiles in breast cancer patients. Our simulation results demonstrate some extreme characteristics of variance and bias that can occur due to a fault in the design of CV exercises aimed at estimating the true conditional error of a classifier, and that appear not to have been fully appreciated in previous studies. Although CV is a sound practice for estimating a classifier’s generalization error, using CV to estimate the fixed misclassification error of a trained classifier conditional on the training set is problematic. While MC simulation of this estimation exercise can correctly represent the average bias of a classifier, it will overstate the between-run variance of the bias. Conclusions We recommend k-fold CV over the new BCV method for estimating a classifier’s generalization error. The extreme negative bias of BCV is too high a price to pay for its reduced variance.

Standard Errors of Estimated Latent Variable Scores with Estimated Structural Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Hoshino, Takahiro; Shigemasu, Kazuo

2008-01-01

The authors propose a concise formula to evaluate the standard error of the estimated latent variable score when the true values of the structural parameters are not known and must be estimated. The formula can be applied to factor scores in factor analysis or ability parameters in item response theory, without bootstrap or Markov chain Monte…

Derivation of main drivers affecting the possibility of human errors during low power and shutdown operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jin Kyun; Kim, Jae Whan [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In order to estimate the possibility of human error and identify its nature, human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been implemented. For this, various HRA methods have been developed so far: techniques for human error rate prediction (THERP), cause based decision tree (CBDT), the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. Most HRA methods have been developed with a focus on full power operation of NPPs even though human performance may more largely affect the safety of the system during low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation than it would when the system is in full power operation. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct a research for developing HRA method to be used in LPSD operation. For the first step of the study, main drivers which affect the possibility of human error have been developed. Drivers which are commonly called as performance shaping factors (PSFs) are aspects of the human's individual characteristics, environment, organization, or task that specifically decrements or improves human performance, thus respectively increasing or decreasing the likelihood of human errors. In order to estimate the possibility of human error and identify its nature, human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been implemented. For this, various HRA methods have been developed so far: techniques for human error rate prediction (THERP), cause based decision tree (CBDT), the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. Most HRA methods have been developed with a focus on full power operation of NPPs even though human performance may more largely affect the safety of the system during low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation than it would when the system is in full power operation. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct a research for developing HRA method to be used in LPSD operation. For the first step of the study, main drivers which affect the possibility of human error have been developed. Drivers

Derivation of main drivers affecting the possibility of human errors during low power and shutdown operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun; Park, Jin Kyun; Kim, Jae Whan

2016-01-01

In order to estimate the possibility of human error and identify its nature, human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been implemented. For this, various HRA methods have been developed so far: techniques for human error rate prediction (THERP), cause based decision tree (CBDT), the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. Most HRA methods have been developed with a focus on full power operation of NPPs even though human performance may more largely affect the safety of the system during low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation than it would when the system is in full power operation. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct a research for developing HRA method to be used in LPSD operation. For the first step of the study, main drivers which affect the possibility of human error have been developed. Drivers which are commonly called as performance shaping factors (PSFs) are aspects of the human's individual characteristics, environment, organization, or task that specifically decrements or improves human performance, thus respectively increasing or decreasing the likelihood of human errors. In order to estimate the possibility of human error and identify its nature, human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been implemented. For this, various HRA methods have been developed so far: techniques for human error rate prediction (THERP), cause based decision tree (CBDT), the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. Most HRA methods have been developed with a focus on full power operation of NPPs even though human performance may more largely affect the safety of the system during low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation than it would when the system is in full power operation. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct a research for developing HRA method to be used in LPSD operation. For the first step of the study, main drivers which affect the possibility of human error have been developed. Drivers which

Analysis of Employee's Survey for Preventing Human-Errors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sung, Chanho; Kim, Younggab; Joung, Sanghoun [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

Human errors in nuclear power plant can cause large and small events or incidents. These events or incidents are one of main contributors of reactor trip and might threaten the safety of nuclear plants. To prevent human-errors, KHNP(nuclear power plants) introduced 'Human-error prevention techniques' and have applied the techniques to main parts such as plant operation, operation support, and maintenance and engineering. This paper proposes the methods to prevent and reduce human-errors in nuclear power plants through analyzing survey results which includes the utilization of the human-error prevention techniques and the employees' awareness of preventing human-errors. With regard to human-error prevention, this survey analysis presented the status of the human-error prevention techniques and the employees' awareness of preventing human-errors. Employees' understanding and utilization of the techniques was generally high and training level of employee and training effect on actual works were in good condition. Also, employees answered that the root causes of human-error were due to working environment including tight process, manpower shortage, and excessive mission rather than personal negligence or lack of personal knowledge. Consideration of working environment is certainly needed. At the present time, based on analyzing this survey, the best methods of preventing human-error are personal equipment, training/education substantiality, private mental health check before starting work, prohibit of multiple task performing, compliance with procedures, and enhancement of job site review. However, the most important and basic things for preventing human-error are interests of workers and organizational atmosphere such as communication between managers and workers, and communication between employees and bosses.

A posteriori error estimator and AMR for discrete ordinates nodal transport methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duo, Jose I.; Azmy, Yousry Y.; Zikatanov, Ludmil T.

2009-01-01

In the development of high fidelity transport solvers, optimization of the use of available computational resources and access to a tool for assessing quality of the solution are key to the success of large-scale nuclear systems' simulation. In this regard, error control provides the analyst with a confidence level in the numerical solution and enables for optimization of resources through Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR). In this paper, we derive an a posteriori error estimator based on the nodal solution of the Arbitrarily High Order Transport Method of the Nodal type (AHOT-N). Furthermore, by making assumptions on the regularity of the solution, we represent the error estimator as a function of computable volume and element-edges residuals. The global L 2 error norm is proved to be bound by the estimator. To lighten the computational load, we present a numerical approximation to the aforementioned residuals and split the global norm error estimator into local error indicators. These indicators are used to drive an AMR strategy for the spatial discretization. However, the indicators based on forward solution residuals alone do not bound the cell-wise error. The estimator and AMR strategy are tested in two problems featuring strong heterogeneity and highly transport streaming regime with strong flux gradients. The results show that the error estimator indeed bounds the global error norms and that the error indicator follows the cell-error's spatial distribution pattern closely. The AMR strategy proves beneficial to optimize resources, primarily by reducing the number of unknowns solved for to achieve prescribed solution accuracy in global L 2 error norm. Likewise, AMR achieves higher accuracy compared to uniform refinement when resolving sharp flux gradients, for the same number of unknowns

An improved silhouette for human pose estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Hawes, Anthony H.; Iftekharuddin, Khan M.

2017-08-01

We propose a novel method for analyzing images that exploits the natural lines of a human poses to find areas where self-occlusion could be present. Errors caused by self-occlusion cause several modern human pose estimation methods to mis-identify body parts, which reduces the performance of most action recognition algorithms. Our method is motivated by the observation that, in several cases, occlusion can be reasoned using only boundary lines of limbs. An intelligent edge detection algorithm based on the above principle could be used to augment the silhouette with information useful for pose estimation algorithms and push forward progress on occlusion handling for human action recognition. The algorithm described is applicable to computer vision scenarios involving 2D images and (appropriated flattened) 3D images.

Development of the Human Error Management Criteria and the Job Aptitude Evaluation Criteria for Rail Safety Personnel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koo, In Soo; Seo, Sang Mun; Park, Geun Ok (and others)

2008-08-15

It has been estimated that up to 90% of all workplace accidents have human error as a cause. Human error has been widely recognized as a key factor in almost all the highly publicized accidents, including Daegu subway fire of February 18, 2003 killed 198 people and injured 147. Because most human behavior is 'unintentional', carried out automatically, root causes of human error should be carefully investigated and regulated by a legal authority. The final goal of this study is to set up some regulatory guidance that are supposed to be used by the korean rail organizations related to safety managements and the contents are : - to develop the regulatory guidance for managing human error, - to develop the regulatory guidance for managing qualifications of rail drivers - to develop the regulatory guidance for evaluating the aptitude of the safety-related personnel.

Development of the Human Error Management Criteria and the Job Aptitude Evaluation Criteria for Rail Safety Personnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, In Soo; Seo, Sang Mun; Park, Geun Ok

2008-08-01

It has been estimated that up to 90% of all workplace accidents have human error as a cause. Human error has been widely recognized as a key factor in almost all the highly publicized accidents, including Daegu subway fire of February 18, 2003 killed 198 people and injured 147. Because most human behavior is 'unintentional', carried out automatically, root causes of human error should be carefully investigated and regulated by a legal authority. The final goal of this study is to set up some regulatory guidance that are supposed to be used by the korean rail organizations related to safety managements and the contents are : - to develop the regulatory guidance for managing human error, - to develop the regulatory guidance for managing qualifications of rail drivers - to develop the regulatory guidance for evaluating the aptitude of the safety-related personnel

Error Estimation for the Linearized Auto-Localization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Seco

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The Linearized Auto-Localization (LAL algorithm estimates the position of beacon nodes in Local Positioning Systems (LPSs, using only the distance measurements to a mobile node whose position is also unknown. The LAL algorithm calculates the inter-beacon distances, used for the estimation of the beacons’ positions, from the linearized trilateration equations. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the propagation of the errors of the inter-beacon distances obtained with the LAL algorithm, based on a first order Taylor approximation of the equations. Since the method depends on such approximation, a confidence parameter τ is defined to measure the reliability of the estimated error. Field evaluations showed that by applying this information to an improved weighted-based auto-localization algorithm (WLAL, the standard deviation of the inter-beacon distances can be improved by more than 30% on average with respect to the original LAL method.

The contributions of human factors on human error in Malaysia aviation maintenance industries

Science.gov (United States)

Padil, H.; Said, M. N.; Azizan, A.

2018-05-01

Aviation maintenance is a multitasking activity in which individuals perform varied tasks under constant pressure to meet deadlines as well as challenging work conditions. These situational characteristics combined with human factors can lead to various types of human related errors. The primary objective of this research is to develop a structural relationship model that incorporates human factors, organizational factors, and their impact on human errors in aviation maintenance. Towards that end, a questionnaire was developed which was administered to Malaysian aviation maintenance professionals. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach was used in this study utilizing AMOS software. Results showed that there were a significant relationship of human factors on human errors and were tested in the model. Human factors had a partial effect on organizational factors while organizational factors had a direct and positive impact on human errors. It was also revealed that organizational factors contributed to human errors when coupled with human factors construct. This study has contributed to the advancement of knowledge on human factors effecting safety and has provided guidelines for improving human factors performance relating to aviation maintenance activities and could be used as a reference for improving safety performance in the Malaysian aviation maintenance companies.

In vivo estimation of target registration errors during augmented reality laparoscopic surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Stephen; Schneider, Crispin; Bosi, Michele; Gurusamy, Kurinchi; Ourselin, Sébastien; Davidson, Brian; Hawkes, David; Clarkson, Matthew J

2018-06-01

Successful use of augmented reality for laparoscopic surgery requires that the surgeon has a thorough understanding of the likely accuracy of any overlay. Whilst the accuracy of such systems can be estimated in the laboratory, it is difficult to extend such methods to the in vivo clinical setting. Herein we describe a novel method that enables the surgeon to estimate in vivo errors during use. We show that the method enables quantitative evaluation of in vivo data gathered with the SmartLiver image guidance system. The SmartLiver system utilises an intuitive display to enable the surgeon to compare the positions of landmarks visible in both a projected model and in the live video stream. From this the surgeon can estimate the system accuracy when using the system to locate subsurface targets not visible in the live video. Visible landmarks may be either point or line features. We test the validity of the algorithm using an anatomically representative liver phantom, applying simulated perturbations to achieve clinically realistic overlay errors. We then apply the algorithm to in vivo data. The phantom results show that using projected errors of surface features provides a reliable predictor of subsurface target registration error for a representative human liver shape. Applying the algorithm to in vivo data gathered with the SmartLiver image-guided surgery system shows that the system is capable of accuracies around 12 mm; however, achieving this reliably remains a significant challenge. We present an in vivo quantitative evaluation of the SmartLiver image-guided surgery system, together with a validation of the evaluation algorithm. This is the first quantitative in vivo analysis of an augmented reality system for laparoscopic surgery.

Modeling SMAP Spacecraft Attitude Control Estimation Error Using Signal Generation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Rizvi, Farheen

2016-01-01

Two ground simulation software are used to model the SMAP spacecraft dynamics. The CAST software uses a higher fidelity model than the ADAMS software. The ADAMS software models the spacecraft plant, controller and actuator models, and assumes a perfect sensor and estimator model. In this simulation study, the spacecraft dynamics results from the ADAMS software are used as CAST software is unavailable. The main source of spacecraft dynamics error in the higher fidelity CAST software is due to the estimation error. A signal generation model is developed to capture the effect of this estimation error in the overall spacecraft dynamics. Then, this signal generation model is included in the ADAMS software spacecraft dynamics estimate such that the results are similar to CAST. This signal generation model has similar characteristics mean, variance and power spectral density as the true CAST estimation error. In this way, ADAMS software can still be used while capturing the higher fidelity spacecraft dynamics modeling from CAST software.

Estimation of a beam centering error in the JAERI AVF cyclotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukuda, M.; Okumura, S.; Arakawa, K.; Ishibori, I.; Matsumura, A.; Nakamura, N.; Nara, T.; Agematsu, T.; Tamura, H.; Karasawa, T.

1999-01-01

A method for estimating a beam centering error from a beam density distribution obtained by a single radial probe has been developed. Estimation of the centering error is based on an analysis of radial beam positions in the direction of the radial probe. Radial motion of a particle is described as betatron oscillation around an accelerated equilibrium orbit. By fitting the radial beam positions of several consecutive turns to an equation of the radial motion, not only amplitude of the centering error but also frequency of the radial betatron oscillation and energy gain per turn can be evaluated simultaneously. The estimated centering error amplitude was consistent with a result of an orbit simulation. This method was exceedingly helpful for minimizing the centering error of a 10 MeV proton beam during the early stages of acceleration. A well-centered beam was obtained by correcting the magnetic field with a first harmonic produced by two pairs of harmonic coils. In order to push back an orbit center to a magnet center, currents of the harmonic coils were optimized on the basis of the estimated centering error amplitude. (authors)

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

On systematic and statistic errors in radionuclide mass activity estimation procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smelcerovic, M.; Djuric, G.; Popovic, D.

1989-01-01

One of the most important requirements during nuclear accidents is the fast estimation of the mass activity of the radionuclides that suddenly and without control reach the environment. The paper points to systematic errors in the procedures of sampling, sample preparation and measurement itself, that in high degree contribute to total mass activity evaluation error. Statistic errors in gamma spectrometry as well as in total mass alpha and beta activity evaluation are also discussed. Beside, some of the possible sources of errors in the partial mass activity evaluation for some of the radionuclides are presented. The contribution of the errors in the total mass activity evaluation error is estimated and procedures that could possibly reduce it are discussed (author)

Constrained motion estimation-based error resilient coding for HEVC

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Weihan; Zhang, Yongfei; Li, Bo

2018-04-01

Unreliable communication channels might lead to packet losses and bit errors in the videos transmitted through it, which will cause severe video quality degradation. This is even worse for HEVC since more advanced and powerful motion estimation methods are introduced to further remove the inter-frame dependency and thus improve the coding efficiency. Once a Motion Vector (MV) is lost or corrupted, it will cause distortion in the decoded frame. More importantly, due to motion compensation, the error will propagate along the motion prediction path, accumulate over time, and significantly degrade the overall video presentation quality. To address this problem, we study the problem of encoder-sider error resilient coding for HEVC and propose a constrained motion estimation scheme to mitigate the problem of error propagation to subsequent frames. The approach is achieved by cutting off MV dependencies and limiting the block regions which are predicted by temporal motion vector. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress the error propagation caused by bit errors of motion vector and can improve the robustness of the stream in the bit error channels. When the bit error probability is 10-5, an increase of the decoded video quality (PSNR) by up to1.310dB and on average 0.762 dB can be achieved, compared to the reference HEVC.

Human error mechanisms in complex work environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.

1988-01-01

Human error taxonomies have been developed from analysis of industrial incident reports as well as from psychological experiments. In this paper the results of the two approaches are reviewed and compared. It is found, in both cases, that a fairly small number of basic psychological mechanisms will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations. The implications for system safety and briefly mentioned, together with the implications for system design. (author)

Human error mechanisms in complex work environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, Jens; Danmarks Tekniske Hoejskole, Copenhagen)

1988-01-01

Human error taxonomies have been developed from analysis of industrial incident reports as well as from psychological experiments. In this paper the results of the two approaches are reviewed and compared. It is found, in both cases, that a fairly small number of basic psychological mechanisms will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations. The implications for system safety are briefly mentioned, together with the implications for system design. (author)

Correcting the Standard Errors of 2-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimators for Mendelian Randomization Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Tom M; Holmes, Michael V; Keating, Brendan J; Sheehan, Nuala A

2017-11-01

Mendelian randomization studies use genotypes as instrumental variables to test for and estimate the causal effects of modifiable risk factors on outcomes. Two-stage residual inclusion (TSRI) estimators have been used when researchers are willing to make parametric assumptions. However, researchers are currently reporting uncorrected or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors for these estimates. We compared several different forms of the standard error for linear and logistic TSRI estimates in simulations and in real-data examples. Among others, we consider standard errors modified from the approach of Newey (1987), Terza (2016), and bootstrapping. In our simulations Newey, Terza, bootstrap, and corrected 2-stage least squares (in the linear case) standard errors gave the best results in terms of coverage and type I error. In the real-data examples, the Newey standard errors were 0.5% and 2% larger than the unadjusted standard errors for the linear and logistic TSRI estimators, respectively. We show that TSRI estimators with modified standard errors have correct type I error under the null. Researchers should report TSRI estimates with modified standard errors instead of reporting unadjusted or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

A technique for human error analysis (ATHEANA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Ramey-Smith, A.M.; Wreathall, J.; Parry, G.W.

1996-05-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an important tool in the nuclear power industry, both for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the operating utilities. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a critical element of PRA; however, limitations in the analysis of human actions in PRAs have long been recognized as a constraint when using PRA. A multidisciplinary HRA framework has been developed with the objective of providing a structured approach for analyzing operating experience and understanding nuclear plant safety, human error, and the underlying factors that affect them. The concepts of the framework have matured into a rudimentary working HRA method. A trial application of the method has demonstrated that it is possible to identify potentially significant human failure events from actual operating experience which are not generally included in current PRAs, as well as to identify associated performance shaping factors and plant conditions that have an observable impact on the frequency of core damage. A general process was developed, albeit in preliminary form, that addresses the iterative steps of defining human failure events and estimating their probabilities using search schemes. Additionally, a knowledge- base was developed which describes the links between performance shaping factors and resulting unsafe actions

A technique for human error analysis (ATHEANA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, S.E.; Ramey-Smith, A.M.; Wreathall, J.; Parry, G.W. [and others

1996-05-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an important tool in the nuclear power industry, both for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the operating utilities. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a critical element of PRA; however, limitations in the analysis of human actions in PRAs have long been recognized as a constraint when using PRA. A multidisciplinary HRA framework has been developed with the objective of providing a structured approach for analyzing operating experience and understanding nuclear plant safety, human error, and the underlying factors that affect them. The concepts of the framework have matured into a rudimentary working HRA method. A trial application of the method has demonstrated that it is possible to identify potentially significant human failure events from actual operating experience which are not generally included in current PRAs, as well as to identify associated performance shaping factors and plant conditions that have an observable impact on the frequency of core damage. A general process was developed, albeit in preliminary form, that addresses the iterative steps of defining human failure events and estimating their probabilities using search schemes. Additionally, a knowledge- base was developed which describes the links between performance shaping factors and resulting unsafe actions.

Human error probability quantification using fuzzy methodology in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nascimento, Claudio Souza do

2010-01-01

This work obtains Human Error Probability (HEP) estimates from operator's actions in response to emergency situations a hypothesis on Research Reactor IEA-R1 from IPEN. It was also obtained a Performance Shaping Factors (PSF) evaluation in order to classify them according to their influence level onto the operator's actions and to determine these PSF actual states over the plant. Both HEP estimation and PSF evaluation were done based on Specialists Evaluation using interviews and questionnaires. Specialists group was composed from selected IEA-R1 operators. Specialist's knowledge representation into linguistic variables and group evaluation values were obtained through Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Set Theory. HEP obtained values show good agreement with literature published data corroborating the proposed methodology as a good alternative to be used on Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). (author)

Adjustment of Measurements with Multiplicative Errors: Error Analysis, Estimates of the Variance of Unit Weight, and Effect on Volume Estimation from LiDAR-Type Digital Elevation Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun Shi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Modern observation technology has verified that measurement errors can be proportional to the true values of measurements such as GPS, VLBI baselines and LiDAR. Observational models of this type are called multiplicative error models. This paper is to extend the work of Xu and Shimada published in 2000 on multiplicative error models to analytical error analysis of quantities of practical interest and estimates of the variance of unit weight. We analytically derive the variance-covariance matrices of the three least squares (LS adjustments, the adjusted measurements and the corrections of measurements in multiplicative error models. For quality evaluation, we construct five estimators for the variance of unit weight in association of the three LS adjustment methods. Although LiDAR measurements are contaminated with multiplicative random errors, LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEM have been constructed as if they were of additive random errors. We will simulate a model landslide, which is assumed to be surveyed with LiDAR, and investigate the effect of LiDAR-type multiplicative error measurements on DEM construction and its effect on the estimate of landslide mass volume from the constructed DEM.

Technique for human-error sequence identification and signification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heslinga, G.

1988-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the event-tree technique can be used for the analysis of sequences of human errors that could cause initiating events. The scope of the study was limited to a consideration of the performance of procedural actions. The event-tree technique was modified to adapt it for this study and will be referred to as the 'Technique for Human-Error-Sequence Identification and Signification' (THESIS). The event trees used in this manner, i.e. THESIS event trees, appear to present additional problems if they are applied to human performance instead of technical systems. These problems, referred to as the 'Man-Related Features' of THESIS, are: the human capability to choose among several procedures, the ergonomics of the panel layout, human actions of a continuous nature, dependence between human errors, human capability to recover possible errors, the influence of memory during the recovery attempt, variability in human performance and correlations between human;erropr probabilities. The influence of these problems on the applicability of THESIS was assessed by means of mathematical analysis, field studies and laboratory experiments (author). 130 refs.; 51 figs.; 24 tabs

Human decision error (HUMDEE) trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostrom, L.T.

1993-01-01

Graphical presentations of human actions in incident and accident sequences have been used for many years. However, for the most part, human decision making has been underrepresented in these trees. This paper presents a method of incorporating the human decision process into graphical presentations of incident/accident sequences. This presentation is in the form of logic trees. These trees are called Human Decision Error Trees or HUMDEE for short. The primary benefit of HUMDEE trees is that they graphically illustrate what else the individuals involved in the event could have done to prevent either the initiation or continuation of the event. HUMDEE trees also present the alternate paths available at the operator decision points in the incident/accident sequence. This is different from the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) event trees. There are many uses of these trees. They can be used for incident/accident investigations to show what other courses of actions were available and for training operators. The trees also have a consequence component so that not only the decision can be explored, also the consequence of that decision

Effects of human errors on the determination of surveillance test interval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Dae Wook; Koo, Bon Hyun

1990-01-01

This paper incorporates the effects of human error relevant to the periodic test on the unavailability of the safety system as well as the component unavailability. Two types of possible human error during the test are considered. One is the possibility that a good safety system is inadvertently left in a bad state after the test (Type A human error) and the other is the possibility that bad safety system is undetected upon the test (Type B human error). An event tree model is developed for the steady-state unavailability of safety system to determine the effects of human errors on the component unavailability and the test interval. We perform the reliability analysis of safety injection system (SIS) by applying aforementioned two types of human error to safety injection pumps. Results of various sensitivity analyses show that; 1) the appropriate test interval decreases and steady-state unavailability increases as the probabilities of both types of human errors increase, and they are far more sensitive to Type A human error than Type B and 2) the SIS unavailability increases slightly as the probability of Type B human error increases, and significantly as the probability of Type A human error increases. Therefore, to avoid underestimation, the effects of human error should be incorporated in the system reliability analysis which aims at the relaxations of the surveillance test intervals, and Type A human error has more important effect on the unavailability and surveillance test interval

Influence of measurement errors and estimated parameters on combustion diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payri, F.; Molina, S.; Martin, J.; Armas, O.

2006-01-01

Thermodynamic diagnosis models are valuable tools for the study of Diesel combustion. Inputs required by such models comprise measured mean and instantaneous variables, together with suitable values for adjustable parameters used in different submodels. In the case of measured variables, one may estimate the uncertainty associated with measurement errors; however, the influence of errors in model parameter estimation may not be so easily established on an experimental basis. In this paper, a simulated pressure cycle has been used along with known input parameters, so that any uncertainty in the inputs is avoided. Then, the influence of errors in measured variables and geometric and heat transmission parameters on the results of a diagnosis combustion model for direct injection diesel engines have been studied. This procedure allowed to establish the relative importance of these parameters and to set limits to the maximal errors of the model, accounting for both the maximal expected errors in the input parameters and the sensitivity of the model to those errors

Human Error Mechanisms in Complex Work Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1988-01-01

will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations...

The cost of human error intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, C.T.; Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.

1994-03-01

DOE has directed that cost-benefit analyses be conducted as part of the review process for all new DOE orders. This new policy will have the effect of ensuring that DOE analysts can justify the implementation costs of the orders that they develop. We would like to argue that a cost-benefit analysis is merely one phase of a complete risk management program -- one that would more than likely start with a probabilistic risk assessment. The safety community defines risk as the probability of failure times the severity of consequence. An engineering definition of failure can be considered in terms of physical performance, as in mean-time-between-failure; or, it can be thought of in terms of human performance, as in probability of human error. The severity of consequence of a failure can be measured along any one of a number of dimensions -- economic, political, or social. Clearly, an analysis along one dimension cannot be directly compared to another but, a set of cost-benefit analyses, based on a series of cost-dimensions, can be extremely useful to managers who must prioritize their resources. Over the last two years, DOE has been developing a series of human factors orders, directed a lowering the probability of human error -- or at least changing the distribution of those errors. The following discussion presents a series of cost-benefit analyses using historical events in the nuclear industry. However, we would first like to discuss some of the analytic cautions that must be considered when we deal with human error

A precise error bound for quantum phase estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James M Chappell

Full Text Available Quantum phase estimation is one of the key algorithms in the field of quantum computing, but up until now, only approximate expressions have been derived for the probability of error. We revisit these derivations, and find that by ensuring symmetry in the error definitions, an exact formula can be found. This new approach may also have value in solving other related problems in quantum computing, where an expected error is calculated. Expressions for two special cases of the formula are also developed, in the limit as the number of qubits in the quantum computer approaches infinity and in the limit as the extra added qubits to improve reliability goes to infinity. It is found that this formula is useful in validating computer simulations of the phase estimation procedure and in avoiding the overestimation of the number of qubits required in order to achieve a given reliability. This formula thus brings improved precision in the design of quantum computers.

Estimation of 3D reconstruction errors in a stereo-vision system

Science.gov (United States)

Belhaoua, A.; Kohler, S.; Hirsch, E.

2009-06-01

The paper presents an approach for error estimation for the various steps of an automated 3D vision-based reconstruction procedure of manufactured workpieces. The process is based on a priori planning of the task and built around a cognitive intelligent sensory system using so-called Situation Graph Trees (SGT) as a planning tool. Such an automated quality control system requires the coordination of a set of complex processes performing sequentially data acquisition, its quantitative evaluation and the comparison with a reference model (e.g., CAD object model) in order to evaluate quantitatively the object. To ensure efficient quality control, the aim is to be able to state if reconstruction results fulfill tolerance rules or not. Thus, the goal is to evaluate independently the error for each step of the stereo-vision based 3D reconstruction (e.g., for calibration, contour segmentation, matching and reconstruction) and then to estimate the error for the whole system. In this contribution, we analyze particularly the segmentation error due to localization errors for extracted edge points supposed to belong to lines and curves composing the outline of the workpiece under evaluation. The fitting parameters describing these geometric features are used as quality measure to determine confidence intervals and finally to estimate the segmentation errors. These errors are then propagated through the whole reconstruction procedure, enabling to evaluate their effect on the final 3D reconstruction result, specifically on position uncertainties. Lastly, analysis of these error estimates enables to evaluate the quality of the 3D reconstruction, as illustrated by the shown experimental results.

Verification of unfold error estimates in the unfold operator code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehl, D.L.; Biggs, F.

1997-01-01

Spectral unfolding is an inverse mathematical operation that attempts to obtain spectral source information from a set of response functions and data measurements. Several unfold algorithms have appeared over the past 30 years; among them is the unfold operator (UFO) code written at Sandia National Laboratories. In addition to an unfolded spectrum, the UFO code also estimates the unfold uncertainty (error) induced by estimated random uncertainties in the data. In UFO the unfold uncertainty is obtained from the error matrix. This built-in estimate has now been compared to error estimates obtained by running the code in a Monte Carlo fashion with prescribed data distributions (Gaussian deviates). In the test problem studied, data were simulated from an arbitrarily chosen blackbody spectrum (10 keV) and a set of overlapping response functions. The data were assumed to have an imprecision of 5% (standard deviation). One hundred random data sets were generated. The built-in estimate of unfold uncertainty agreed with the Monte Carlo estimate to within the statistical resolution of this relatively small sample size (95% confidence level). A possible 10% bias between the two methods was unresolved. The Monte Carlo technique is also useful in underdetermined problems, for which the error matrix method does not apply. UFO has been applied to the diagnosis of low energy x rays emitted by Z-pinch and ion-beam driven hohlraums. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Effects of digital human-machine interface characteristics on human error in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Pengcheng; Zhang Li; Dai Licao; Huang Weigang

2011-01-01

In order to identify the effects of digital human-machine interface characteristics on human error in nuclear power plants, the new characteristics of digital human-machine interface are identified by comparing with the traditional analog control systems in the aspects of the information display, user interface interaction and management, control systems, alarm systems and procedures system, and the negative effects of digital human-machine interface characteristics on human error are identified by field research and interviewing with operators such as increased cognitive load and workload, mode confusion, loss of situation awareness. As to the adverse effects related above, the corresponding prevention and control measures of human errors are provided to support the prevention and minimization of human errors and the optimization of human-machine interface design. (authors)

Bayesian error estimation in density-functional theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Jens Jørgen; Kaasbjerg, Kristen; Frederiksen, Søren Lund

2005-01-01

We present a practical scheme for performing error estimates for density-functional theory calculations. The approach, which is based on ideas from Bayesian statistics, involves creating an ensemble of exchange-correlation functionals by comparing with an experimental database of binding energies...

Estimation of Total Error in DWPF Reported Radionuclide Inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the reported concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch. The objective of this investigation is to estimate the variance of the total error in reporting these radionuclide concentrations

Error estimation of deformable image registration of pulmonary CT scans using convolutional neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Eppenhof, Koen A J; Pluim, Josien P W

2018-04-01

Error estimation in nonlinear medical image registration is a nontrivial problem that is important for validation of registration methods. We propose a supervised method for estimation of registration errors in nonlinear registration of three-dimensional (3-D) images. The method is based on a 3-D convolutional neural network that learns to estimate registration errors from a pair of image patches. By applying the network to patches centered around every voxel, we construct registration error maps. The network is trained using a set of representative images that have been synthetically transformed to construct a set of image pairs with known deformations. The method is evaluated on deformable registrations of inhale-exhale pairs of thoracic CT scans. Using ground truth target registration errors on manually annotated landmarks, we evaluate the method's ability to estimate local registration errors. Estimation of full domain error maps is evaluated using a gold standard approach. The two evaluation approaches show that we can train the network to robustly estimate registration errors in a predetermined range, with subvoxel accuracy. We achieved a root-mean-square deviation of 0.51 mm from gold standard registration errors and of 0.66 mm from ground truth landmark registration errors.

A Design-Adaptive Local Polynomial Estimator for the Errors-in-Variables Problem

KAUST Repository

Delaigle, Aurore

2009-03-01

Local polynomial estimators are popular techniques for nonparametric regression estimation and have received great attention in the literature. Their simplest version, the local constant estimator, can be easily extended to the errors-in-variables context by exploiting its similarity with the deconvolution kernel density estimator. The generalization of the higher order versions of the estimator, however, is not straightforward and has remained an open problem for the last 15 years. We propose an innovative local polynomial estimator of any order in the errors-in-variables context, derive its design-adaptive asymptotic properties and study its finite sample performance on simulated examples. We provide not only a solution to a long-standing open problem, but also provide methodological contributions to error-invariable regression, including local polynomial estimation of derivative functions.

PERFORMANCE OF THE ZERO FORCING PRECODING MIMO BROADCAST SYSTEMS WITH CHANNEL ESTIMATION ERRORS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Jing; Liu Zhanli; Wang Yan; You Xiaohu

2007-01-01

In this paper, the effect of channel estimation errors upon the Zero Forcing (ZF) precoding Multiple Input Multiple Output Broadcast (MIMO BC) systems was studied. Based on the two kinds of Gaussian estimation error models, the performance analysis is conducted under different power allocation strategies. Analysis and simulation show that if the covariance of channel estimation errors is independent of the received Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), imperfect channel knowledge deteriorates the sum capacity and the Bit Error Rate (BER) performance severely. However, under the situation of orthogonal training and the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) channel estimation, the sum capacity and BER performance are consistent with those of the perfect Channel State Information (CSI)with only a performance degradation.

Investigation of error sources in regional inverse estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, E.; Chan, D.; Ishizawa, M.; Vogel, F.; Brioude, J.; Delcloo, A.; Wu, Y.; Jin, B.

2015-08-01

Inversion models can use atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate surface fluxes. This study is an evaluation of the errors in a regional flux inversion model for different provinces of Canada, Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Ontario (ON). Using CarbonTracker model results as the target, the synthetic data experiment analyses examined the impacts of the errors from the Bayesian optimisation method, prior flux distribution and the atmospheric transport model, as well as their interactions. The scaling factors for different sub-regions were estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and cost function minimization (CFM) methods. The CFM method results are sensitive to the relative size of the assumed model-observation mismatch and prior flux error variances. Experiment results show that the estimation error increases with the number of sub-regions using the CFM method. For the region definitions that lead to realistic flux estimates, the numbers of sub-regions for the western region of AB/SK combined and the eastern region of ON are 11 and 4 respectively. The corresponding annual flux estimation errors for the western and eastern regions using the MCMC (CFM) method are -7 and -3 % (0 and 8 %) respectively, when there is only prior flux error. The estimation errors increase to 36 and 94 % (40 and 232 %) resulting from transport model error alone. When prior and transport model errors co-exist in the inversions, the estimation errors become 5 and 85 % (29 and 201 %). This result indicates that estimation errors are dominated by the transport model error and can in fact cancel each other and propagate to the flux estimates non-linearly. In addition, it is possible for the posterior flux estimates having larger differences than the prior compared to the target fluxes, and the posterior uncertainty estimates could be unrealistically small that do not cover the target. The systematic evaluation of the different components of the inversion

Evolutionary enhancement of the SLIM-MAUD method of estimating human error rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamanali, J.H.; Hubbard, F.R.; Mosleh, A.; Waller, M.A.

1992-01-01

The methodology described in this paper assigns plant-specific dynamic human error rates (HERs) for individual plant examinations based on procedural difficulty, on configuration features, and on the time available to perform the action. This methodology is an evolutionary improvement of the success likelihood index methodology (SLIM-MAUD) for use in systemic scenarios. It is based on the assumption that the HER in a particular situation depends of the combined effects of a comprehensive set of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) that influence the operator's ability to perform the action successfully. The PSFs relate the details of the systemic scenario in which the action must be performed according to the operator's psychological and cognitive condition

SHEAN (Simplified Human Error Analysis code) and automated THERP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, J.R.

1993-01-01

One of the most widely used human error analysis tools is THERP (Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction). Unfortunately, this tool has disadvantages. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, realizing these drawbacks, commissioned Dr. Swain, the author of THERP, to create a simpler, more consistent tool for deriving human error rates. That effort produced the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program Human Reliability Analysis Procedure (ASEP), which is more conservative than THERP, but a valuable screening tool. ASEP involves answering simple questions about the scenario in question, and then looking up the appropriate human error rate in the indicated table (THERP also uses look-up tables, but four times as many). The advantages of ASEP are that human factors expertise is not required, and the training to use the method is minimal. Although not originally envisioned by Dr. Swain, the ASEP approach actually begs to be computerized. That WINCO did, calling the code SHEAN, for Simplified Human Error ANalysis. The code was done in TURBO Basic for IBM or IBM-compatible MS-DOS, for fast execution. WINCO is now in the process of comparing this code against THERP for various scenarios. This report provides a discussion of SHEAN

Human error theory: relevance to nurse management.

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, Gerry

2009-03-01

Describe, discuss and critically appraise human error theory and consider its relevance for nurse managers. Healthcare errors are a persistent threat to patient safety. Effective risk management and clinical governance depends on understanding the nature of error. This paper draws upon a wide literature from published works, largely from the field of cognitive psychology and human factors. Although the content of this paper is pertinent to any healthcare professional; it is written primarily for nurse managers. Error is inevitable. Causation is often attributed to individuals, yet causation in complex environments such as healthcare is predominantly multi-factorial. Individual performance is affected by the tendency to develop prepacked solutions and attention deficits, which can in turn be related to local conditions and systems or latent failures. Blame is often inappropriate. Defences should be constructed in the light of these considerations and to promote error wisdom and organizational resilience. Managing and learning from error is seen as a priority in the British National Health Service (NHS), this can be better achieved with an understanding of the roots, nature and consequences of error. Such an understanding can provide a helpful framework for a range of risk management activities.

Applying lessons learned to enhance human performance and reduce human error for ISS operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, W.R.

1998-09-01

A major component of reliability, safety, and mission success for space missions is ensuring that the humans involved (flight crew, ground crew, mission control, etc.) perform their tasks and functions as required. This includes compliance with training and procedures during normal conditions, and successful compensation when malfunctions or unexpected conditions occur. A very significant issue that affects human performance in space flight is human error. Human errors can invalidate carefully designed equipment and procedures. If certain errors combine with equipment failures or design flaws, mission failure or loss of life can occur. The control of human error during operation of the International Space Station (ISS) will be critical to the overall success of the program. As experience from Mir operations has shown, human performance plays a vital role in the success or failure of long duration space missions. The Department of Energy`s Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is developed a systematic approach to enhance human performance and reduce human errors for ISS operations. This approach is based on the systematic identification and evaluation of lessons learned from past space missions such as Mir to enhance the design and operation of ISS. This paper describes previous INEEL research on human error sponsored by NASA and how it can be applied to enhance human reliability for ISS.

Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E

2004-01-01

The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors.

Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E.

2004-01-01

The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors

Residual-based a posteriori error estimation for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods

KAUST Repository

Du, Shaohong; Sun, Shuyu; Xie, Xiaoping

2015-01-01

A novel residual-type a posteriori error analysis technique is developed for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods for flow in porous media in two or three space dimensions. The derived a posteriori error estimator for the velocity and pressure error in L-norm consists of discretization and quadrature indicators, and is shown to be reliable and efficient. The main tools of analysis are a locally postprocessed approximation to the pressure solution of an auxiliary problem and a quadrature error estimate. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the competitive behavior of the estimator.

Residual-based a posteriori error estimation for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods

KAUST Repository

Du, Shaohong

2015-10-26

A novel residual-type a posteriori error analysis technique is developed for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods for flow in porous media in two or three space dimensions. The derived a posteriori error estimator for the velocity and pressure error in L-norm consists of discretization and quadrature indicators, and is shown to be reliable and efficient. The main tools of analysis are a locally postprocessed approximation to the pressure solution of an auxiliary problem and a quadrature error estimate. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the competitive behavior of the estimator.

An Enhanced Non-Coherent Pre-Filter Design for Tracking Error Estimation in GNSS Receivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Zhibin; Ding, Jicheng; Zhao, Lin; Wu, Mouyan

2017-11-18

Tracking error estimation is of great importance in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Any inaccurate estimation for tracking error will decrease the signal tracking ability of signal tracking loops and the accuracies of position fixing, velocity determination, and timing. Tracking error estimation can be done by traditional discriminator, or Kalman filter-based pre-filter. The pre-filter can be divided into two categories: coherent and non-coherent. This paper focuses on the performance improvements of non-coherent pre-filter. Firstly, the signal characteristics of coherent and non-coherent integration-which are the basis of tracking error estimation-are analyzed in detail. After that, the probability distribution of estimation noise of four-quadrant arctangent (ATAN2) discriminator is derived according to the mathematical model of coherent integration. Secondly, the statistical property of observation noise of non-coherent pre-filter is studied through Monte Carlo simulation to set the observation noise variance matrix correctly. Thirdly, a simple fault detection and exclusion (FDE) structure is introduced to the non-coherent pre-filter design, and thus its effective working range for carrier phase error estimation extends from (-0.25 cycle, 0.25 cycle) to (-0.5 cycle, 0.5 cycle). Finally, the estimation accuracies of discriminator, coherent pre-filter, and the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter are evaluated comprehensively through the carefully designed experiment scenario. The pre-filter outperforms traditional discriminator in estimation accuracy. In a highly dynamic scenario, the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter provides accuracy improvements of 41.6%, 46.4%, and 50.36% for carrier phase error, carrier frequency error, and code phase error estimation, respectively, when compared with coherent pre-filter. The enhanced non-coherent pre-filter outperforms the coherent pre-filter in code phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio

Human factors estimation method in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takano, Kenichi; Yoshino, Kenji; Nagasaka, Akihiko

1987-01-01

It is need for improving a NPS reliability to prevent human-errors of operators in a control room. Especially, the time error or omission error may be often caused by a exceed of the mental work load. Therefore, in order to decrease such kinds of human errors, not only the planning of an equipment and a console is well considered about proper level of mental work load but also the exceeded mental work load must be let down by trainning etc. This paper present measurement techniques of the mental work load by physiological informations and the relation between the error rate and mental work load on the basis of the experiment by various modeled tasks. Following results are obtained. (1) TSF, the indicator of the mental work load, is well correlated to the subsidary task reaction time. Therefore it is able to estimate the TSF by subsidary tasks if the task was loaded instanteniously with main task. (2) The relation between the TSF and GSR pulses rate has a 0.81 correlation factor except the case of a parallel processing task. Because we can evaluate the mental work load by the measurement of the GSR pulses rate if the task was processed by a single channel. But if uses GSR, the atomospheric condition is kept constant and the arousal level must be at the well stage. (3) The human error is greatly increase when the TSF exceed above 60 %, that values are almost agreed to the tolerance limit of the TTS methods. (author)

The role of human error in risk analysis: Application to pre- and post-maintenance procedures of process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noroozi, Alireza; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; MacKinnon, Scott; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

2013-01-01

Human factors play an important role in the safe operation of a facility. Human factors include the systematic application of information about human characteristics and behavior to increase the safety of a process system. A significant proportion of human errors occur during the maintenance phase. However, the quantification of human error probabilities in the maintenance phase has not been given the amount of attention it deserves. This paper focuses on a human factors analysis in pre-and post- pump maintenance operations. The procedures for removing process equipment from service (pre-maintenance) and returning the equipment to service (post-maintenance) are considered for possible failure scenarios. For each scenario, human error probability is calculated for each activity using the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM). Consequences are also assessed in this methodology. The risk assessment is conducted for each component and the overall risk is estimated by adding individual risks. The present study is aimed at highlighting the importance of considering human error in quantitative risk analyses. The developed methodology has been applied to a case study of an offshore process facility

Risk Management and the Concept of Human Error

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1995-01-01

by a stochastic coincidence of faults and human errors, but by a systemic erosion of the defenses due to decision making under competitive pressure in a dynamic environment. The presentation will discuss the nature of human error and the risk management problems found in a dynamic, competitive society facing...

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science

Science.gov (United States)

Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V.; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A.; Ott, Daniel B.; Zhang, Nien Fan

2018-01-01

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. PMID:29331680

PERANCANGAN COMPUTER AIDED SYSTEM DALAM MENGANALISA HUMAN ERROR DI PERKERETAAPIAN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wiwik Budiawan

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Kecelakaan kereta api (KA yang terjadi secara beruntun di Indonesia sudah berada pada tingkat kritis. Berdasarkan data dari Direktorat Jendral Perkeretaapian, dalam kurun 5 tahun terakhir (2005-2009 total terdapat 611 kecelakaan KA.  Banyak faktor yang berkontribusi menyebabkan terjadinya kecelakaan, antara lain: sarana, prasarana, SDM operator (human error, eksternal, dan alam.  Kegagalan manusia (Human error merupakan salah satu faktor yang berpotensi menyebabkan terjadinya suatu kecelakaan KA dan dinyatakan sebagai faktor utama penyebab terjadinya suatu kecelakaan kereta api di Indonesia. Namun, tidak jelas bagaimana teknik analisis ini dilakukan. Kajian human error yang dilakukan Komite Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi (KNKT masih relatif terbatas, tidak dilengkapi dengan metode yang sistematis. Terdapat beberapa metode yang telah dikembangkan saat ini, tetapi untuk moda transportasi kereta api masih belum banyak dikembangkan. Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS merupakan metode analisis human error yang dikembangkan dan disesuaikan dengan sistem perkeretaapian Indonesia. Guna meningkatkan keandalan dalam analisis human error, HFACS kemudian dikembangkan dalam bentuk aplikasi berbasis web yang dapat diakses di komputer maupun smartphone. Hasil penelitian ini dapat dimanfaatkan oleh KNKT sebagai metode analisis kecelakaan kereta api khususnya terkait dengan human error. Kata kunci : human error, HFACS, CAS, kereta api   Abstract Train wreck (KA which occurred in quick succession in Indonesia already at a critical level. Based on data from the Directorate General of Railways, during the last 5 years (2005-2009 there were a total of 611 railway accidents. Many factors contribute to cause accidents, such as: facilities, infrastructure, human operator (human error, external, and natural. Human failure (Human error is one of the factors that could potentially cause a train accident and expressed as the main factors causing

Basic considerations in predicting error probabilities in human task performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleishman, E.A.; Buffardi, L.C.; Allen, J.A.; Gaskins, R.C. III

1990-04-01

It is well established that human error plays a major role in the malfunctioning of complex systems. This report takes a broad look at the study of human error and addresses the conceptual, methodological, and measurement issues involved in defining and describing errors in complex systems. In addition, a review of existing sources of human reliability data and approaches to human performance data base development is presented. Alternative task taxonomies, which are promising for establishing the comparability on nuclear and non-nuclear tasks, are also identified. Based on such taxonomic schemes, various data base prototypes for generalizing human error rates across settings are proposed. 60 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Supervised local error estimation for nonlinear image registration using convolutional neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eppenhof, Koen A.J.; Pluim, Josien P.W.; Styner, M.A.; Angelini, E.D.

2017-01-01

Error estimation in medical image registration is valuable when validating, comparing, or combining registration methods. To validate a nonlinear image registration method, ideally the registration error should be known for the entire image domain. We propose a supervised method for the estimation

Measurement Error in Income and Schooling and the Bias of Linear Estimators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bingley, Paul; Martinello, Alessandro

2017-01-01

and Retirement in Europe data with Danish administrative registers. Contrary to most validation studies, we find that measurement error in income is classical once we account for imperfect validation data. We find nonclassical measurement error in schooling, causing a 38% amplification bias in IV estimators......We propose a general framework for determining the extent of measurement error bias in ordinary least squares and instrumental variable (IV) estimators of linear models while allowing for measurement error in the validation source. We apply this method by validating Survey of Health, Ageing...

A chance to avoid mistakes human error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amaro, Pablo; Obeso, Eduardo; Gomez, Ruben

2010-01-01

Trying to give an answer to the lack of public information in the industry, in relationship with the different tools that are managed in the nuclear industry for minimizing the human error, a group of workers from different sections of the St. Maria de Garona NPP (Quality Assurance/ Organization and Human Factors) decided to embark on a challenging and exciting project: 'Write a book collecting all the knowledge accumulated during their daily activities, very often during lecture time of external information received from different organizations within the nuclear industry (INPO, WANO...), but also visiting different NPP's, maintaining meetings and participating in training courses related de Human and Organizational Factors'. Main objective of the book is presenting to the industry in general, the different tools that are used and fostered in the nuclear industry, in a practical way. In this way, the assimilation and implementation in others industries could be possible and achievable in and efficient context. One year of work, and our project is a reality. We have presented and abstract during the last Spanish Nuclear Society meeting in Sevilla, last October...and the best, the book is into the market for everybody in web-site: www.bubok.com. The book is structured in the following areas: 'Errare humanum est': Trying to present what is the human error to the reader, its origin and the different barriers. The message is that the reader see the error like something continuously present in our lives... even more frequently than we think. Studying its origin can be established aimed at barriers to avoid or at least minimize it. 'Error's bitter face': Shows the possible consequences of human errors. What better that presenting real experiences that have occurred in the industry. In the book, accidents in the nuclear industry, like Tree Mile Island NPP, Chernobyl NPP, and incidents like Davis Besse NPP in the past, helps to the reader to make a reflection about the

Component Analysis of Errors on PERSIANN Precipitation Estimates over Urmia Lake Basin, IRAN

Science.gov (United States)

Ghajarnia, N.; Daneshkar Arasteh, P.; Liaghat, A. M.; Araghinejad, S.

2016-12-01

In this study, PERSIANN daily dataset is evaluated from 2000 to 2011 in 69 pixels over Urmia Lake basin in northwest of Iran. Different analytical approaches and indexes are used to examine PERSIANN precision in detection and estimation of rainfall rate. The residuals are decomposed into Hit, Miss and FA estimation biases while continues decomposition of systematic and random error components are also analyzed seasonally and categorically. New interpretation of estimation accuracy named "reliability on PERSIANN estimations" is introduced while the changing manners of existing categorical/statistical measures and error components are also seasonally analyzed over different rainfall rate categories. This study yields new insights into the nature of PERSIANN errors over Urmia lake basin as a semi-arid region in the middle-east, including the followings: - The analyzed contingency table indexes indicate better detection precision during spring and fall. - A relatively constant level of error is generally observed among different categories. The range of precipitation estimates at different rainfall rate categories is nearly invariant as a sign for the existence of systematic error. - Low level of reliability is observed on PERSIANN estimations at different categories which are mostly associated with high level of FA error. However, it is observed that as the rate of precipitation increase, the ability and precision of PERSIANN in rainfall detection also increases. - The systematic and random error decomposition in this area shows that PERSIANN has more difficulty in modeling the system and pattern of rainfall rather than to have bias due to rainfall uncertainties. The level of systematic error also considerably increases in heavier rainfalls. It is also important to note that PERSIANN error characteristics at each season varies due to the condition and rainfall patterns of that season which shows the necessity of seasonally different approach for the calibration of

An Adaptive Estimation of Forecast Error Covariance Parameters for Kalman Filtering Data Assimilation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xiaogu ZHENG

2009-01-01

An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assimilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model (Burgers' equation model) is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Nursing Errors in Intensive Care Unit by Human Error Identification in Systems Tool: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nezamodini

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Background Although health services are designed and implemented to improve human health, the errors in health services are a very common phenomenon and even sometimes fatal in this field. Medical errors and their cost are global issues with serious consequences for the patients’ community that are preventable and require serious attention. Objectives The current study aimed to identify possible nursing errors applying human error identification in systems tool (HEIST in the intensive care units (ICUs of hospitals. Patients and Methods This descriptive research was conducted in the intensive care unit of a hospital in Khuzestan province in 2013. Data were collected through observation and interview by nine nurses in this section in a period of four months. Human error classification was based on Rose and Rose and Swain and Guttmann models. According to HEIST work sheets the guide questions were answered and error causes were identified after the determination of the type of errors. Results In total 527 errors were detected. The performing operation on the wrong path had the highest frequency which was 150, and the second rate with a frequency of 136 was doing the tasks later than the deadline. Management causes with a frequency of 451 were the first rank among identified errors. Errors mostly occurred in the system observation stage and among the performance shaping factors (PSFs, time was the most influencing factor in occurrence of human errors. Conclusions Finally, in order to prevent the occurrence and reduce the consequences of identified errors the following suggestions were proposed : appropriate training courses, applying work guidelines and monitoring their implementation, increasing the number of work shifts, hiring professional workforce, equipping work space with appropriate facilities and equipment.

Normalization of Deviation: Quotation Error in Human Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lock, Jordan; Bearman, Chris

2018-05-01

Objective The objective of this paper is to examine quotation error in human factors. Background Science progresses through building on the work of previous research. This requires accurate quotation. Quotation error has a number of adverse consequences: loss of credibility, loss of confidence in the journal, and a flawed basis for academic debate and scientific progress. Quotation error has been observed in a number of domains, including marine biology and medicine, but there has been little or no previous study of this form of error in human factors, a domain that specializes in the causes and management of error. Methods A study was conducted examining quotation accuracy of 187 extracts from 118 published articles that cited a control article (Vaughan's 1996 book: The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA). Results Of extracts studied, 12.8% ( n = 24) were classed as inaccurate, with 87.2% ( n = 163) being classed as accurate. A second dimension of agreement was examined with 96.3% ( n = 180) agreeing with the control article and only 3.7% ( n = 7) disagreeing. The categories of accuracy and agreement form a two by two matrix. Conclusion Rather than simply blaming individuals for quotation error, systemic factors should also be considered. Vaughan's theory, normalization of deviance, is one systemic theory that can account for quotation error. Application Quotation error is occurring in human factors and should receive more attention. According to Vaughan's theory, the normal everyday systems that promote scholarship may also allow mistakes, mishaps, and quotation error to occur.

Estimating the annotation error rate of curated GO database sequence annotations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brown Alfred L

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Annotations that describe the function of sequences are enormously important to researchers during laboratory investigations and when making computational inferences. However, there has been little investigation into the data quality of sequence function annotations. Here we have developed a new method of estimating the error rate of curated sequence annotations, and applied this to the Gene Ontology (GO sequence database (GOSeqLite. This method involved artificially adding errors to sequence annotations at known rates, and used regression to model the impact on the precision of annotations based on BLAST matched sequences. Results We estimated the error rate of curated GO sequence annotations in the GOSeqLite database (March 2006 at between 28% and 30%. Annotations made without use of sequence similarity based methods (non-ISS had an estimated error rate of between 13% and 18%. Annotations made with the use of sequence similarity methodology (ISS had an estimated error rate of 49%. Conclusion While the overall error rate is reasonably low, it would be prudent to treat all ISS annotations with caution. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations as the basis of predictions are likely to have higher false prediction rates, and for this reason designers of these systems should consider avoiding ISS annotations where possible. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations to make predictions should be viewed sceptically. We recommend that curators thoroughly review ISS annotations before accepting them as valid. Overall, users of curated sequence annotations from the GO database should feel assured that they are using a comparatively high quality source of information.

Simulator data on human error probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozinsky, E.J.; Guttmann, H.E.

1982-01-01

Analysis of operator errors on NPP simulators is being used to determine Human Error Probabilities (HEP) for task elements defined in NUREG/CR 1278. Simulator data tapes from research conducted by EPRI and ORNL are being analyzed for operator error rates. The tapes collected, using Performance Measurement System software developed for EPRI, contain a history of all operator manipulations during simulated casualties. Analysis yields a time history or Operational Sequence Diagram and a manipulation summary, both stored in computer data files. Data searches yield information on operator errors of omission and commission. This work experimentally determines HEPs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment calculations. It is the only practical experimental source of this data to date

Simulator data on human error probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozinsky, E.J.; Guttmann, H.E.

1981-01-01

Analysis of operator errors on NPP simulators is being used to determine Human Error Probabilities (HEP) for task elements defined in NUREG/CR-1278. Simulator data tapes from research conducted by EPRI and ORNL are being analyzed for operator error rates. The tapes collected, using Performance Measurement System software developed for EPRI, contain a history of all operator manipulations during simulated casualties. Analysis yields a time history or Operational Sequence Diagram and a manipulation summary, both stored in computer data files. Data searches yield information on operator errors of omission and commission. This work experimentally determined HEP's for Probabilistic Risk Assessment calculations. It is the only practical experimental source of this data to date

Savannah River Site human error data base development for nonreactor nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benhardt, H.C.; Held, J.E.; Olsen, L.M.; Vail, R.E.; Eide, S.A.

1994-01-01

As part of an overall effort to upgrade and streamline methodologies for safety analyses of nonreactor nuclear facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a human error data base has been developed and is presented in this report. The data base fulfills several needs of risk analysts supporting safety analysis report (SAR) development. First, it provides a single source for probabilities or rates for a wide variety of human errors associated with the SRS nonreactor nuclear facilities. Second, it provides a documented basis for human error probabilities or rates. And finally, it provides actual SRS-specific human error data to support many of the error probabilities or rates. Use of a single, documented reference source for human errors, supported by SRS-specific human error data, will improve the consistency and accuracy of human error modeling by SRS risk analysts. It is envisioned that SRS risk analysts will use this report as both a guide to identifying the types of human errors that may need to be included in risk models such as fault and event trees, and as a source for human error probabilities or rates. For each human error in this report, ffime different mean probabilities or rates are presented to cover a wide range of conditions and influencing factors. The ask analysts must decide which mean value is most appropriate for each particular application. If other types of human errors are needed for the risk models, the analyst must use other sources. Finally, if human enors are dominant in the quantified risk models (based on the values obtained fmm this report), then it may be appropriate to perform detailed human reliability analyses (HRAS) for the dominant events. This document does not provide guidance for such refined HRAS; in such cases experienced human reliability analysts should be involved

Exact error estimation for solutions of nuclide chain equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tachihara, Hidekazu; Sekimoto, Hiroshi

1999-01-01

The exact solution of nuclide chain equations within arbitrary figures is obtained for a linear chain by employing the Bateman method in the multiple-precision arithmetic. The exact error estimation of major calculation methods for a nuclide chain equation is done by using this exact solution as a standard. The Bateman, finite difference, Runge-Kutta and matrix exponential methods are investigated. The present study confirms the following. The original Bateman method has very low accuracy in some cases, because of large-scale cancellations. The revised Bateman method by Siewers reduces the occurrence of cancellations and thereby shows high accuracy. In the time difference method as the finite difference and Runge-Kutta methods, the solutions are mainly affected by the truncation errors in the early decay time, and afterward by the round-off errors. Even though the variable time mesh is employed to suppress the accumulation of round-off errors, it appears to be nonpractical. Judging from these estimations, the matrix exponential method is the best among all the methods except the Bateman method whose calculation process for a linear chain is not identical with that for a general one. (author)

Complementarity based a posteriori error estimates and their properties

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vejchodský, Tomáš

2012-01-01

Roč. 82, č. 10 (2012), s. 2033-2046 ISSN 0378-4754 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA102/07/0496; GA AV ČR IAA100760702 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : error majorant * a posteriori error estimates * method of hypercircle Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475411001509

Detailed semantic analyses of human error incidents occurring at nuclear power plant in USA (interim report). Characteristics of human error incidents occurring in the period from 1992 to 1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirotsu, Yuko; Tsuge, Tadashi; Sano, Toshiaki; Takano, Kenichi; Gouda, Hidenori

2001-01-01

CRIEPI has been conducting detailed analyses of all human error incidents at domestic nuclear power plants (NPPs) collected from Japanese Licensee Event Reports (LERs) using J-HPES (Japanese version of HPES) as an analysis method. Results obtained by the analyses have been stored in J-HPES database. Since 1999, human error incidents have been selected from U.S. LERs, and they are analyzed using J-HPES. In this report, the results, which classified error action, cause, and preventive measure, are summarized for U.S. human error cases occurring in the period from 1992 to 1996. It was suggested as a result of classification that the categories of error action were almost the same as those of Japanese human error cases. Therefore, problems in the process of error action and checkpoints for preventing errors will be extracted by analyzing both U.S. and domestic human error cases. It was also suggested that the interrelations between error actions, causes, and organizational factors could be identified. While taking these suggestions into consideration, we will continue to analyze U.S. human error cases. (author)

Chernobyl - system accident or human error?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stang, E.

1996-01-01

Did human error cause the Chernobyl disaster? The standard point of view is that operator error was the root cause of the disaster. This was also the view of the Soviet Accident Commission. The paper analyses the operator errors at Chernobyl in a system context. The reactor operators committed errors that depended upon a lot of other failures that made up a complex accident scenario. The analysis is based on Charles Perrow's analysis of technological disasters. Failure possibility is an inherent property of high-risk industrial installations. The Chernobyl accident consisted of a chain of events that were both extremely improbable and difficult to predict. It is not reasonable to put the blame for the disaster on the operators. (author)

Error Estimation and Accuracy Improvements in Nodal Transport Methods; Estimacion de Errores y Aumento de la Precision en Metodos Nodales de Transporte

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zamonsky, O M [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, Centro Atomico Bariloche (Argentina)

2000-07-01

The accuracy of the solutions produced by the Discrete Ordinates neutron transport nodal methods is analyzed.The obtained new numerical methodologies increase the accuracy of the analyzed scheems and give a POSTERIORI error estimators. The accuracy improvement is obtained with new equations that make the numerical procedure free of truncation errors and proposing spatial reconstructions of the angular fluxes that are more accurate than those used until present. An a POSTERIORI error estimator is rigurously obtained for one dimensional systems that, in certain type of problems, allows to quantify the accuracy of the solutions. From comparisons with the one dimensional results, an a POSTERIORI error estimator is also obtained for multidimensional systems. LOCAL indicators, which quantify the spatial distribution of the errors, are obtained by the decomposition of the menctioned estimators. This makes the proposed methodology suitable to perform adaptive calculations. Some numerical examples are presented to validate the theoretical developements and to illustrate the ranges where the proposed approximations are valid.

Estimation of chromatic errors from broadband images for high contrast imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Sirbu, Dan; Belikov, Ruslan

2015-09-01

Usage of an internal coronagraph with an adaptive optical system for wavefront correction for direct imaging of exoplanets is currently being considered for many mission concepts, including as an instrument addition to the WFIRST-AFTA mission to follow the James Web Space Telescope. The main technical challenge associated with direct imaging of exoplanets with an internal coronagraph is to effectively control both the diffraction and scattered light from the star so that the dim planetary companion can be seen. For the deformable mirror (DM) to recover a dark hole region with sufficiently high contrast in the image plane, wavefront errors are usually estimated using probes on the DM. To date, most broadband lab demonstrations use narrowband filters to estimate the chromaticity of the wavefront error, but this reduces the photon flux per filter and requires a filter system. Here, we propose a method to estimate the chromaticity of wavefront errors using only a broadband image. This is achieved by using special DM probes that have sufficient chromatic diversity. As a case example, we simulate the retrieval of the spectrum of the central wavelength from broadband images for a simple shaped- pupil coronagraph with a conjugate DM and compute the resulting estimation error.

Uncertainty quantification for radiation measurements: Bottom-up error variance estimation using calibration information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burr, T.; Croft, S.; Krieger, T.; Martin, K.; Norman, C.; Walsh, S.

2016-01-01

One example of top-down uncertainty quantification (UQ) involves comparing two or more measurements on each of multiple items. One example of bottom-up UQ expresses a measurement result as a function of one or more input variables that have associated errors, such as a measured count rate, which individually (or collectively) can be evaluated for impact on the uncertainty in the resulting measured value. In practice, it is often found that top-down UQ exhibits larger error variances than bottom-up UQ, because some error sources are present in the fielded assay methods used in top-down UQ that are not present (or not recognized) in the assay studies used in bottom-up UQ. One would like better consistency between the two approaches in order to claim understanding of the measurement process. The purpose of this paper is to refine bottom-up uncertainty estimation by using calibration information so that if there are no unknown error sources, the refined bottom-up uncertainty estimate will agree with the top-down uncertainty estimate to within a specified tolerance. Then, in practice, if the top-down uncertainty estimate is larger than the refined bottom-up uncertainty estimate by more than the specified tolerance, there must be omitted sources of error beyond those predicted from calibration uncertainty. The paper develops a refined bottom-up uncertainty approach for four cases of simple linear calibration: (1) inverse regression with negligible error in predictors, (2) inverse regression with non-negligible error in predictors, (3) classical regression followed by inversion with negligible error in predictors, and (4) classical regression followed by inversion with non-negligible errors in predictors. Our illustrations are of general interest, but are drawn from our experience with nuclear material assay by non-destructive assay. The main example we use is gamma spectroscopy that applies the enrichment meter principle. Previous papers that ignore error in predictors

Study on a new framework of Human Reliability Analysis to evaluate soft control execution error in advanced MCRs of NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Inseok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Jung, Wondea; Seong, Poong Hyun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The operation environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed by adopting new HSIs. • The operation action in NPP Advanced MCRs is performed by soft control. • New HRA framework should be considered in the HRA for advanced MCRs. • HRA framework for evaluation of soft control execution human error is suggested. • Suggested method will be helpful to analyze human reliability in advance MCRs. - Abstract: Since the Three Mile Island (TMI)-2 accident, human error has been recognized as one of the main causes of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents, and numerous studies related to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) have been carried out. Most of these methods were developed considering the conventional type of Main Control Rooms (MCRs). However, the operating environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed with the adoption of new Human-System Interfaces (HSIs) that are based on computer-based technologies. The MCRs that include these digital technologies, such as large display panels, computerized procedures, and soft controls, are called advanced MCRs. Among the many features of advanced MCRs, soft controls are a particularly important feature because operating actions in NPP advanced MCRs are performed by soft control. Due to the differences in interfaces between soft control and hardwired conventional type control, different Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and a new HRA framework should be considered in the HRA for advanced MCRs. To this end, a new framework of a HRA method for evaluating soft control execution human error is suggested by performing a soft control task analysis and the literature regarding widely accepted human error taxonomies is reviewed. Moreover, since most current HRA databases deal with operation in conventional MCRs and are not explicitly designed to deal with digital HSIs, empirical analysis of human error and error recovery considering soft controls under an advanced MCR mockup are carried out to collect human error data, which is

Statistical error estimation of the Feynman-α method using the bootstrap method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Endo, Tomohiro; Yamamoto, Akio; Yagi, Takahiro; Pyeon, Cheol Ho

2016-01-01

Applicability of the bootstrap method is investigated to estimate the statistical error of the Feynman-α method, which is one of the subcritical measurement techniques on the basis of reactor noise analysis. In the Feynman-α method, the statistical error can be simply estimated from multiple measurements of reactor noise, however it requires additional measurement time to repeat the multiple times of measurements. Using a resampling technique called 'bootstrap method' standard deviation and confidence interval of measurement results obtained by the Feynman-α method can be estimated as the statistical error, using only a single measurement of reactor noise. In order to validate our proposed technique, we carried out a passive measurement of reactor noise without any external source, i.e. with only inherent neutron source by spontaneous fission and (α,n) reactions in nuclear fuels at the Kyoto University Criticality Assembly. Through the actual measurement, it is confirmed that the bootstrap method is applicable to approximately estimate the statistical error of measurement results obtained by the Feynman-α method. (author)

A posteriori error estimates for finite volume approximations of elliptic equations on general surfaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ju, Lili; Tian, Li; Wang, Desheng

2008-10-31

In this paper, we present a residual-based a posteriori error estimate for the finite volume discretization of steady convection– diffusion–reaction equations defined on surfaces in R3, which are often implicitly represented as level sets of smooth functions. Reliability and efficiency of the proposed a posteriori error estimator are rigorously proved. Numerical experiments are also conducted to verify the theoretical results and demonstrate the robustness of the error estimator.

Augmented GNSS Differential Corrections Minimum Mean Square Error Estimation Sensitivity to Spatial Correlation Modeling Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazelie Kassabian

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Railway signaling is a safety system that has evolved over the last couple of centuries towards autonomous functionality. Recently, great effort is being devoted in this field, towards the use and exploitation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS signals and GNSS augmentation systems in view of lower railway track equipments and maintenance costs, that is a priority to sustain the investments for modernizing the local and regional lines most of which lack automatic train protection systems and are still manually operated. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE algorithm to modeling errors in the spatial correlation function that characterizes true pseudorange Differential Corrections (DCs. This study is inspired by the railway application; however, it applies to all transportation systems, including the road sector, that need to be complemented by an augmentation system in order to deliver accurate and reliable positioning with integrity specifications. A vector of noisy pseudorange DC measurements are simulated, assuming a Gauss-Markov model with a decay rate parameter inversely proportional to the correlation distance that exists between two points of a certain environment. The LMMSE algorithm is applied on this vector to estimate the true DC, and the estimation error is compared to the noise added during simulation. The results show that for large enough correlation distance to Reference Stations (RSs distance separation ratio values, the LMMSE brings considerable advantage in terms of estimation error accuracy and precision. Conversely, the LMMSE algorithm may deteriorate the quality of the DC measurements whenever the ratio falls below a certain threshold.

Observer-Based Human Knee Stiffness Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Misgeld, Berno J E; Luken, Markus; Riener, Robert; Leonhardt, Steffen

2017-05-01

We consider the problem of stiffness estimation for the human knee joint during motion in the sagittal plane. The new stiffness estimator uses a nonlinear reduced-order biomechanical model and a body sensor network (BSN). The developed model is based on a two-dimensional knee kinematics approach to calculate the angle-dependent lever arms and the torques of the muscle-tendon-complex. To minimize errors in the knee stiffness estimation procedure that result from model uncertainties, a nonlinear observer is developed. The observer uses the electromyogram (EMG) of involved muscles as input signals and the segmental orientation as the output signal to correct the observer-internal states. Because of dominating model nonlinearities and nonsmoothness of the corresponding nonlinear functions, an unscented Kalman filter is designed to compute and update the observer feedback (Kalman) gain matrix. The observer-based stiffness estimation algorithm is subsequently evaluated in simulations and in a test bench, specifically designed to provide robotic movement support for the human knee joint. In silico and experimental validation underline the good performance of the knee stiffness estimation even in the cases of a knee stiffening due to antagonistic coactivation. We have shown the principle function of an observer-based approach to knee stiffness estimation that employs EMG signals and segmental orientation provided by our own IPANEMA BSN. The presented approach makes realtime, model-based estimation of knee stiffness with minimal instrumentation possible.

Quantification of the effects of dependence on human error probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

1980-01-01

In estimating the probabilities of human error in the performance of a series of tasks in a nuclear power plant, the situation-specific characteristics of the series must be considered. A critical factor not to be overlooked in this estimation is the dependence or independence that pertains to any of the several pairs of task performances. In discussing the quantification of the effects of dependence, the event tree symbology described will be used. In any series of tasks, the only dependence considered for quantification in this document will be that existing between the task of interest and the immediately preceeding task. Tasks performed earlier in the series may have some effect on the end task, but this effect is considered negligible

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Byung-Hyun; Song, Jong-Hwa; Im, Jun-Hyuck; Im, Sung-Hyuck; Heo, Moon-Beom; Jee, Gyu-In

2015-08-21

Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level.

Automation of Commanding at NASA: Reducing Human Error in Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Dorn, Sarah J.

2010-01-01

Automation has been implemented in many different industries to improve efficiency and reduce human error. Reducing or eliminating the human interaction in tasks has been proven to increase productivity in manufacturing and lessen the risk of mistakes by humans in the airline industry. Human space flight requires the flight controllers to monitor multiple systems and react quickly when failures occur so NASA is interested in implementing techniques that can assist in these tasks. Using automation to control some of these responsibilities could reduce the number of errors the flight controllers encounter due to standard human error characteristics. This paper will investigate the possibility of reducing human error in the critical area of manned space flight at NASA.

Maximum Likelihood Approach for RFID Tag Set Cardinality Estimation with Detection Errors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Chuyen T.; Hayashi, Kazunori; Kaneko, Megumi

2013-01-01

Abstract Estimation schemes of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) tag set cardinality are studied in this paper using Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. We consider the estimation problem under the model of multiple independent reader sessions with detection errors due to unreliable radio...... is evaluated under dierent system parameters and compared with that of the conventional method via computer simulations assuming flat Rayleigh fading environments and framed-slotted ALOHA based protocol. Keywords RFID tag cardinality estimation maximum likelihood detection error...

Facial motion parameter estimation and error criteria in model-based image coding

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yunhai; Yu, Lu; Yao, Qingdong

2000-04-01

Model-based image coding has been given extensive attention due to its high subject image quality and low bit-rates. But the estimation of object motion parameter is still a difficult problem, and there is not a proper error criteria for the quality assessment that are consistent with visual properties. This paper presents an algorithm of the facial motion parameter estimation based on feature point correspondence and gives the motion parameter error criteria. The facial motion model comprises of three parts. The first part is the global 3-D rigid motion of the head, the second part is non-rigid translation motion in jaw area, and the third part consists of local non-rigid expression motion in eyes and mouth areas. The feature points are automatically selected by a function of edges, brightness and end-node outside the blocks of eyes and mouth. The numbers of feature point are adjusted adaptively. The jaw translation motion is tracked by the changes of the feature point position of jaw. The areas of non-rigid expression motion can be rebuilt by using block-pasting method. The estimation approach of motion parameter error based on the quality of reconstructed image is suggested, and area error function and the error function of contour transition-turn rate are used to be quality criteria. The criteria reflect the image geometric distortion caused by the error of estimated motion parameters properly.

An Approach to Human Error Hazard Detection of Unexpected Situations in NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Sangjun; Oh, Yeonju; Shin, Youmin; Lee, Yong-Hee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Fukushima accident is a typical complex event including the extreme situations induced by the succeeding earthquake, tsunami, explosion, and human errors. And it is judged with incomplete cause of system build-up same manner, procedure as a deficiency of response manual, education and training, team capability and the discharge of operator from human engineering point of view. Especially, the guidelines of current operating NPPs are not enough including countermeasures to the human errors at the extreme situations. Therefore, this paper describes a trial to detect the hazards of human errors at extreme situation, and to define the countermeasures that can properly response to the human error hazards when an individual, team, organization, and working entities that encounter the extreme situation in NPPs. In this paper we try to propose an approach to analyzing and extracting human error hazards for suggesting additional countermeasures to the human errors in unexpected situations. They might be utilized to develop contingency guidelines, especially for reducing the human error accident in NPPs. But the trial application in this study is currently limited since it is not easy to find accidents cases in detail enough to enumerate the proposed steps. Therefore, we will try to analyze as more cases as possible, and consider other environmental factors and human error conditions.

An Approach to Human Error Hazard Detection of Unexpected Situations in NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sangjun; Oh, Yeonju; Shin, Youmin; Lee, Yong-Hee

2015-01-01

Fukushima accident is a typical complex event including the extreme situations induced by the succeeding earthquake, tsunami, explosion, and human errors. And it is judged with incomplete cause of system build-up same manner, procedure as a deficiency of response manual, education and training, team capability and the discharge of operator from human engineering point of view. Especially, the guidelines of current operating NPPs are not enough including countermeasures to the human errors at the extreme situations. Therefore, this paper describes a trial to detect the hazards of human errors at extreme situation, and to define the countermeasures that can properly response to the human error hazards when an individual, team, organization, and working entities that encounter the extreme situation in NPPs. In this paper we try to propose an approach to analyzing and extracting human error hazards for suggesting additional countermeasures to the human errors in unexpected situations. They might be utilized to develop contingency guidelines, especially for reducing the human error accident in NPPs. But the trial application in this study is currently limited since it is not easy to find accidents cases in detail enough to enumerate the proposed steps. Therefore, we will try to analyze as more cases as possible, and consider other environmental factors and human error conditions

Measurement error in income and schooling, and the bias of linear estimators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bingley, Paul; Martinello, Alessandro

The characteristics of measurement error determine the bias of linear estimators. We propose a method for validating economic survey data allowing for measurement error in the validation source, and we apply this method by validating Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data...... with Danish administrative registers. We find that measurement error in surveys is classical for annual gross income but non-classical for years of schooling, causing a 21% amplification bias in IV estimators of returns to schooling. Using a 1958 Danish schooling reform, we contextualize our result...

Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors

KAUST Repository

Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-05-01

This paper considers identification and estimation of a general nonlinear Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model using two samples. Both samples consist of a dependent variable, some error-free covariates, and an error-prone covariate, for which the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values; and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. We assume that the regression model of interest - the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the latent true covariate and the error-free covariates - is the same in both samples, but the distributions of the latent true covariates vary with observed error-free discrete covariates. We first show that the general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two samples when both could have nonclassical errors, without either instrumental variables or independence between the two samples. When the two samples are independent and the nonlinear regression model is parameterized, we propose sieve Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) for the parameter of interest, and establish its root-n consistency and asymptotic normality under possible misspecification, and its semiparametric efficiency under correct specification, with easily estimated standard errors. A Monte Carlo simulation and a data application are presented to show the power of the approach.

Estimating pole/zero errors in GSN-IRIS/USGS network calibration metadata

Science.gov (United States)

Ringler, A.T.; Hutt, C.R.; Aster, R.; Bolton, H.; Gee, L.S.; Storm, T.

2012-01-01

Mapping the digital record of a seismograph into true ground motion requires the correction of the data by some description of the instrument's response. For the Global Seismographic Network (Butler et al., 2004), as well as many other networks, this instrument response is represented as a Laplace domain pole–zero model and published in the Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data (SEED) format. This Laplace representation assumes that the seismometer behaves as a linear system, with any abrupt changes described adequately via multiple time-invariant epochs. The SEED format allows for published instrument response errors as well, but these typically have not been estimated or provided to users. We present an iterative three-step method to estimate the instrument response parameters (poles and zeros) and their associated errors using random calibration signals. First, we solve a coarse nonlinear inverse problem using a least-squares grid search to yield a first approximation to the solution. This approach reduces the likelihood of poorly estimated parameters (a local-minimum solution) caused by noise in the calibration records and enhances algorithm convergence. Second, we iteratively solve a nonlinear parameter estimation problem to obtain the least-squares best-fit Laplace pole–zero–gain model. Third, by applying the central limit theorem, we estimate the errors in this pole–zero model by solving the inverse problem at each frequency in a two-thirds octave band centered at each best-fit pole–zero frequency. This procedure yields error estimates of the 99% confidence interval. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a number of recent Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology/United States Geological Survey (IRIS/USGS) network calibrations (network code IU).

Prediction of Monte Carlo errors by a theory generalized to treat track-length estimators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, T.E.; Amster, H.J.

1978-01-01

Present theories for predicting expected Monte Carlo errors in neutron transport calculations apply to estimates of flux-weighted integrals sampled directly by scoring individual collisions. To treat track-length estimators, the recent theory of Amster and Djomehri is generalized to allow the score distribution functions to depend on the coordinates of two successive collisions. It has long been known that the expected track length in a region of phase space equals the expected flux integrated over that region, but that the expected statistical error of the Monte Carlo estimate of the track length is different from that of the flux integral obtained by sampling the sum of the reciprocals of the cross sections for all collisions in the region. These conclusions are shown to be implied by the generalized theory, which provides explicit equations for the expected values and errors of both types of estimators. Sampling expected contributions to the track-length estimator is also treated. Other general properties of the errors for both estimators are derived from the equations and physically interpreted. The actual values of these errors are then obtained and interpreted for a simple specific example

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byung-Hyun Lee

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level.

Research on the Method of Noise Error Estimation of Atomic Clocks

Science.gov (United States)

Song, H. J.; Dong, S. W.; Li, W.; Zhang, J. H.; Jing, Y. J.

2017-05-01

The simulation methods of different noises of atomic clocks are given. The frequency flicker noise of atomic clock is studied by using the Markov process theory. The method for estimating the maximum interval error of the frequency white noise is studied by using the Wiener process theory. Based on the operation of 9 cesium atomic clocks in the time frequency reference laboratory of NTSC (National Time Service Center), the noise coefficients of the power-law spectrum model are estimated, and the simulations are carried out according to the noise models. Finally, the maximum interval error estimates of the frequency white noises generated by the 9 cesium atomic clocks have been acquired.

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

2010-03-01

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

Science.gov (United States)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors for a PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.; Hall, R.E.; Kerr, W.

1980-01-01

Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study

SCHEME (Soft Control Human error Evaluation MEthod) for advanced MCR HRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Inseok; Jung, Wondea; Seong, Poong Hyun

2015-01-01

The Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), Korean Human Reliability Analysis (K-HRA), Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART), A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA), Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), and Simplified Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Assessment (SPAR-H) in relation to NPP maintenance and operation. Most of these methods were developed considering the conventional type of Main Control Rooms (MCRs). They are still used for HRA in advanced MCRs even though the operating environment of advanced MCRs in NPPs has been considerably changed by the adoption of new human-system interfaces such as computer-based soft controls. Among the many features in advanced MCRs, soft controls are an important feature because the operation action in NPP advanced MCRs is performed by soft controls. Consequently, those conventional methods may not sufficiently consider the features of soft control execution human errors. To this end, a new framework of a HRA method for evaluating soft control execution human error is suggested by performing the soft control task analysis and the literature reviews regarding widely accepted human error taxonomies. In this study, the framework of a HRA method for evaluating soft control execution human error in advanced MCRs is developed. First, the factors which HRA method in advanced MCRs should encompass are derived based on the literature review, and soft control task analysis. Based on the derived factors, execution HRA framework in advanced MCRs is developed mainly focusing on the features of soft control. Moreover, since most current HRA database deal with operation in conventional type of MCRs and are not explicitly designed to deal with digital HSI, HRA database are developed under lab scale simulation

ADVANCED MMIS TOWARD SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN HUMAN ERRORS IN NPPS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

POONG HYUN SEONG

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to give an overview of the methods to inherently prevent human errors and to effectively mitigate the consequences of such errors by securing defense-in-depth during plant management through the advanced man-machine interface system (MMIS. It is needless to stress the significance of human error reduction during an accident in nuclear power plants (NPPs. Unexpected shutdowns caused by human errors not only threaten nuclear safety but also make public acceptance of nuclear power extremely lower. We have to recognize there must be the possibility of human errors occurring since humans are not essentially perfect particularly under stressful conditions. However, we have the opportunity to improve such a situation through advanced information and communication technologies on the basis of lessons learned from our experiences. As important lessons, authors explained key issues associated with automation, man-machine interface, operator support systems, and procedures. Upon this investigation, we outlined the concept and technical factors to develop advanced automation, operation and maintenance support systems, and computer-based procedures using wired/wireless technology. It should be noted that the ultimate responsibility of nuclear safety obviously belongs to humans not to machines. Therefore, safety culture including education and training, which is a kind of organizational factor, should be emphasized as well. In regard to safety culture for human error reduction, several issues that we are facing these days were described. We expect the ideas of the advanced MMIS proposed in this paper to lead in the future direction of related researches and finally supplement the safety of NPPs.

Advanced MMIS Toward Substantial Reduction in Human Errors in NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seong, Poong Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Na, Man Gyun [Chosun Univ., Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Yoensub [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-04-15

This paper aims to give an overview of the methods to inherently prevent human errors and to effectively mitigate the consequences of such errors by securing defense-in-depth during plant management through the advanced man-machine interface system (MMIS). It is needless to stress the significance of human error reduction during an accident in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Unexpected shutdowns caused by human errors not only threaten nuclear safety but also make public acceptance of nuclear power extremely lower. We have to recognize there must be the possibility of human errors occurring since humans are not essentially perfect particularly under stressful conditions. However, we have the opportunity to improve such a situation through advanced information and communication technologies on the basis of lessons learned from our experiences. As important lessons, authors explained key issues associated with automation, man-machine interface, operator support systems, and procedures. Upon this investigation, we outlined the concept and technical factors to develop advanced automation, operation and maintenance support systems, and computer-based procedures using wired/wireless technology. It should be noted that the ultimate responsibility of nuclear safety obviously belongs to humans not to machines. Therefore, safety culture including education and training, which is a kind of organizational factor, should be emphasized as well. In regard to safety culture for human error reduction, several issues that we are facing these days were described. We expect the ideas of the advanced MMIS proposed in this paper to lead in the future direction of related researches and finally supplement the safety of NPPs.

Advanced MMIS Toward Substantial Reduction in Human Errors in NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seong, Poong Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Jong Hyun; Heo, Gyunyoung; Jung, Yoensub

2013-01-01

This paper aims to give an overview of the methods to inherently prevent human errors and to effectively mitigate the consequences of such errors by securing defense-in-depth during plant management through the advanced man-machine interface system (MMIS). It is needless to stress the significance of human error reduction during an accident in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Unexpected shutdowns caused by human errors not only threaten nuclear safety but also make public acceptance of nuclear power extremely lower. We have to recognize there must be the possibility of human errors occurring since humans are not essentially perfect particularly under stressful conditions. However, we have the opportunity to improve such a situation through advanced information and communication technologies on the basis of lessons learned from our experiences. As important lessons, authors explained key issues associated with automation, man-machine interface, operator support systems, and procedures. Upon this investigation, we outlined the concept and technical factors to develop advanced automation, operation and maintenance support systems, and computer-based procedures using wired/wireless technology. It should be noted that the ultimate responsibility of nuclear safety obviously belongs to humans not to machines. Therefore, safety culture including education and training, which is a kind of organizational factor, should be emphasized as well. In regard to safety culture for human error reduction, several issues that we are facing these days were described. We expect the ideas of the advanced MMIS proposed in this paper to lead in the future direction of related researches and finally supplement the safety of NPPs

A residual-based a posteriori error estimator for single-phase Darcy flow in fractured porous media

KAUST Repository

Chen, Huangxin

2016-12-09

In this paper we develop an a posteriori error estimator for a mixed finite element method for single-phase Darcy flow in a two-dimensional fractured porous media. The discrete fracture model is applied to model the fractures by one-dimensional fractures in a two-dimensional domain. We consider Raviart–Thomas mixed finite element method for the approximation of the coupled Darcy flows in the fractures and the surrounding porous media. We derive a robust residual-based a posteriori error estimator for the problem with non-intersecting fractures. The reliability and efficiency of the a posteriori error estimator are established for the error measured in an energy norm. Numerical results verifying the robustness of the proposed a posteriori error estimator are given. Moreover, our numerical results indicate that the a posteriori error estimator also works well for the problem with intersecting fractures.

The Relationship between Human Operators' Psycho-physiological Condition and Human Errors in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Arryum; Jang, Inseok; Kang, Hyungook; Seong, Poonghyun

2013-01-01

The safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is substantially dependent on the performance of the human operators who operate the systems. In this environment, human errors caused by inappropriate performance of operator have been considered to be critical since it may lead serious problems in the safety-critical plants. In order to provide meaningful insights to prevent human errors and enhance the human performance, operators' physiological conditions such as stress and workload have been investigated. Physiological measurements were considered as reliable tools to assess the stress and workload. T. Q. Tran et al. and J. B. Brooking et al pointed out that operators' workload can be assessed using eye tracking, galvanic skin response, electroencephalograms (EEGs), heart rate, respiration and other measurements. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the human operators' tense level and knowledge level to the number of human errors. For this study, the experiments were conducted in the mimic of the main control rooms (MCR) in NPP. It utilized the compact nuclear simulator (CNS) which is modeled based on the three loop Pressurized Water Reactor, 993MWe, Kori unit 3 and 4 in Korea and the subjects were asked to follow the tasks described in the emergency operating procedures (EOP). During the simulation, three kinds of physiological measurement were utilized; Electrocardiogram (ECG), EEG and nose temperature. Also, subjects were divided into three groups based on their knowledge of the plant operation. The result shows that subjects who are tense make fewer errors. In addition, subjects who are in higher knowledge level tend to be tense and make fewer errors. For the ECG data, subjects who make fewer human errors tend to be located in higher tense level area of high SNS activity and low PSNS activity. The results of EEG data are also similar to ECG result. Beta power ratio of subjects who make fewer errors was higher. Since beta power ratio is

A user's manual of Tools for Error Estimation of Complex Number Matrix Computation (Ver.1.0)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichihara, Kiyoshi.

1997-03-01

'Tools for Error Estimation of Complex Number Matrix Computation' is a subroutine library which aids the users in obtaining the error ranges of the complex number linear system's solutions or the Hermitian matrices' eigen values. This library contains routines for both sequential computers and parallel computers. The subroutines for linear system error estimation calulate norms of residual vectors, matrices's condition numbers, error bounds of solutions and so on. The error estimation subroutines for Hermitian matrix eigen values' derive the error ranges of the eigen values according to the Korn-Kato's formula. This user's manual contains a brief mathematical background of error analysis on linear algebra and usage of the subroutines. (author)

Quantification of human errors in level-1 PSA studies in NUPEC/JINS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirano, M.; Hirose, M.; Sugawara, M.; Hashiba, T.

1991-01-01

THERP (Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction) method is mainly adopted to evaluate the pre-accident and post-accident human error rates. Performance shaping factors are derived by taking Japanese operational practice into account. Several examples of human error rates with calculational procedures are presented. The important human interventions of typical Japanese NPPs are also presented. (orig./HP)

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Science.gov (United States)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

AGAPE-ET for human error analysis of emergency tasks and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. H.; Jeong, W. D.

2002-01-01

The paper presents a proceduralised human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A Guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), covering both qualitative error analysis and quantification of human error probability (HEP) of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of the performance influencing factors (PIFs) on the cognitive function. Then, error analysis items have been determined from the identified error causes or error-likely situations and a human error analysis procedure based on the error analysis items is organised to help the analysts cue or guide overall human error analysis. The basic scheme for the quantification of HEP consists in the multiplication of the BHEP assigned by the error analysis item and the weight from the influencing factors decision tree (IFDT) constituted by cognitive function. The method can be characterised by the structured identification of the weak points of the task required to perform and the efficient analysis process that the analysts have only to carry out with the necessary cognitive functions. The paper also presents the application of AGAPE-ET to 31 nuclear emergency tasks and its results

Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

Modeling Human Error Mechanism for Soft Control in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aljneibi, Hanan Salah Ali [Khalifa Univ., Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates); Ha, Jun Su; Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

To achieve the switch from conventional analog-based design to digital design in ACRs, a large number of manual operating controls and switches have to be replaced by a few common multi-function devices which is called soft control system. The soft controls in APR-1400 ACRs are classified into safety-grade and non-safety-grade soft controls; each was designed using different and independent input devices in ACRs. The operations using soft controls require operators to perform new tasks which were not necessary in conventional controls such as navigating computerized displays to monitor plant information and control devices. These kinds of computerized displays and soft controls may make operations more convenient but they might cause new types of human error. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or human errors) during NPP operation. The developed model would contribute to a lot of applications to improve human performance (or reduce human errors), HMI designs, and operators' training program in ACRs. The developed model of human error mechanism for the soft control is based on assumptions that a human operator has certain amount of capacity in cognitive resources and if resources required by operating tasks are greater than resources invested by the operator, human error (or poor human performance) is likely to occur (especially in 'slip'); good HMI (Human-machine Interface) design decreases the required resources; operator's skillfulness decreases the required resources; and high vigilance increases the invested resources. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or reduction of human errors) during NPP operation.

Modeling Human Error Mechanism for Soft Control in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aljneibi, Hanan Salah Ali; Ha, Jun Su; Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun

2015-01-01

To achieve the switch from conventional analog-based design to digital design in ACRs, a large number of manual operating controls and switches have to be replaced by a few common multi-function devices which is called soft control system. The soft controls in APR-1400 ACRs are classified into safety-grade and non-safety-grade soft controls; each was designed using different and independent input devices in ACRs. The operations using soft controls require operators to perform new tasks which were not necessary in conventional controls such as navigating computerized displays to monitor plant information and control devices. These kinds of computerized displays and soft controls may make operations more convenient but they might cause new types of human error. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or human errors) during NPP operation. The developed model would contribute to a lot of applications to improve human performance (or reduce human errors), HMI designs, and operators' training program in ACRs. The developed model of human error mechanism for the soft control is based on assumptions that a human operator has certain amount of capacity in cognitive resources and if resources required by operating tasks are greater than resources invested by the operator, human error (or poor human performance) is likely to occur (especially in 'slip'); good HMI (Human-machine Interface) design decreases the required resources; operator's skillfulness decreases the required resources; and high vigilance increases the invested resources. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or reduction of human errors) during NPP operation

On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

KAUST Repository

Zollanvari, Amin

2013-05-24

We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

KAUST Repository

Zollanvari, Amin; Genton, Marc G.

2013-01-01

We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

Estimating and localizing the algebraic and total numerical errors using flux reconstructions

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Papež, Jan; Strakoš, Z.; Vohralík, M.

2018-01-01

Roč. 138, č. 3 (2018), s. 681-721 ISSN 0029-599X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : numerical solution of partial differential equations * finite element method * a posteriori error estimation * algebraic error * discretization error * stopping criteria * spatial distribution of the error Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.152, year: 2016

The Concept of Human Error and the Design of Reliable Human-Machine Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1995-01-01

The concept of human error is unreliable as a basis for design of reliable human-machine systems. Humans are basically highly adaptive and 'errors' are closely related to the process of adaptation and learning. Therefore, reliability of system operation depends on an interface that is not designed...... so as to support a pre-conceived operating procedure, but, instead, makes visible the deep, functional structure of the system together with the boundaries of acceptable operation in away that allows operators to 'touch' the boundaries and to learn to cope with the effects of errors in a reversible...... way. The concepts behind such 'ecological' interfaces are discussed, an it is argued that a 'typology' of visualization concepts is a pressing research need....

The treatment of commission errors in first generation human reliability analysis methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarengga, Marco Antonio Bayout; Fonseca, Renato Alves da, E-mail: bayout@cnen.gov.b, E-mail: rfonseca@cnen.gov.b [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Melo, Paulo Fernando Frutuoso e, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

2011-07-01

Human errors in human reliability analysis can be classified generically as errors of omission and commission errors. Omission errors are related to the omission of any human action that should have been performed, but does not occur. Errors of commission are those related to human actions that should not be performed, but which in fact are performed. Both involve specific types of cognitive error mechanisms, however, errors of commission are more difficult to model because they are characterized by non-anticipated actions that are performed instead of others that are omitted (omission errors) or are entered into an operational task without being part of the normal sequence of this task. The identification of actions that are not supposed to occur depends on the operational context that will influence or become easy certain unsafe actions of the operator depending on the operational performance of its parameters and variables. The survey of operational contexts and associated unsafe actions is a characteristic of second-generation models, unlike the first generation models. This paper discusses how first generation models can treat errors of commission in the steps of detection, diagnosis, decision-making and implementation, in the human information processing, particularly with the use of THERP tables of errors quantification. (author)

Mean value estimates of the error terms of Lehmer problem

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Mean value estimates of the error terms of Lehmer problem. DONGMEI REN1 and YAMING ... For further properties of N(a,p) in [6], he studied the mean square value of the error term. E(a, p) = N(a,p) − 1. 2 (p − 1) ..... [1] Apostol Tom M, Introduction to Analytic Number Theory (New York: Springer-Verlag). (1976). [2] Guy R K ...

Computable Error Estimates for Finite Element Approximations of Elliptic Partial Differential Equations with Rough Stochastic Data

KAUST Repository

Hall, Eric Joseph; Hoel, Hå kon; Sandberg, Mattias; Szepessy, Anders; Tempone, Raul

2016-01-01

posteriori error estimates fail to capture. We propose goal-oriented estimates, based on local error indicators, for the pathwise Galerkin and expected quadrature errors committed in standard, continuous, piecewise linear finite element approximations

A Human Error Analysis Procedure for Identifying Potential Error Modes and Influencing Factors for Test and Maintenance Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun

2010-01-01

Periodic or non-periodic test and maintenance (T and M) activities in large, complex systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) are essential for sustaining stable and safe operation of the systems. On the other hand, it also has been raised that human erroneous actions that might occur during T and M activities has the possibility of incurring unplanned reactor trips (RTs) or power derate, making safety-related systems unavailable, or making the reliability of components degraded. Contribution of human errors during normal and abnormal activities of NPPs to the unplanned RTs is known to be about 20% of the total events. This paper introduces a procedure for predictively analyzing human error potentials when maintenance personnel perform T and M tasks based on a work procedure or their work plan. This procedure helps plant maintenance team prepare for plausible human errors. The procedure to be introduced is focusing on the recurrent error forms (or modes) in execution-based errors such as wrong object, omission, too little, and wrong action

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the

Uncertainty quantification in a chemical system using error estimate-based mesh adaption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathelin, Lionel; Le Maitre, Olivier P.

2012-01-01

This paper describes a rigorous a posteriori error analysis for the stochastic solution of non-linear uncertain chemical models. The dual-based a posteriori stochastic error analysis extends the methodology developed in the deterministic finite elements context to stochastic discretization frameworks. It requires the resolution of two additional (dual) problems to yield the local error estimate. The stochastic error estimate can then be used to adapt the stochastic discretization. Different anisotropic refinement strategies are proposed, leading to a cost-efficient tool suitable for multi-dimensional problems of moderate stochastic dimension. The adaptive strategies allow both for refinement and coarsening of the stochastic discretization, as needed to satisfy a prescribed error tolerance. The adaptive strategies were successfully tested on a model for the hydrogen oxidation in supercritical conditions having 8 random parameters. The proposed methodologies are however general enough to be also applicable for a wide class of models such as uncertain fluid flows. (authors)

The recovery factors analysis of the human errors for research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farcasiu, M.; Nitoi, M.; Apostol, M.; Turcu, I.; Florescu, Ghe.

2006-01-01

The results of many Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies show a very significant contribution of human errors to systems unavailability of the nuclear installations. The treatment of human interactions is considered one of the major limitations in the context of PSA. To identify those human actions that can have an effect on system reliability or availability applying the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is necessary. The recovery factors analysis of the human action is an important step in HRA. This paper presents how can be reduced the human errors probabilities (HEP) using those elements that have the capacity to recovery human error. The recovery factors modeling is marked to identify error likelihood situations or situations that conduct at development of the accident. This analysis is realized by THERP method. The necessary information was obtained from the operating experience of the research reactor TRIGA of the INR Pitesti. The required data were obtained from generic databases. (authors)

Knowledge-base for the new human reliability analysis method, A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Wreathall, J.; Thompson, C.M., Drouin, M.; Bley, D.C.

1996-01-01

This paper describes the knowledge base for the application of the new human reliability analysis (HRA) method, a ''A Technique for Human Error Analysis'' (ATHEANA). Since application of ATHEANA requires the identification of previously unmodeled human failure events, especially errors of commission, and associated error-forcing contexts (i.e., combinations of plant conditions and performance shaping factors), this knowledge base is an essential aid for the HRA analyst

Estimating the Autocorrelated Error Model with Trended Data: Further Results,

Science.gov (United States)

1979-11-01

Perhaps the most serious deficiency of OLS in the presence of autocorrelation is not inefficiency but bias in its estimated standard errors--a bias...k for all t has variance var(b) = o2/ Tk2 2This refutes Maeshiro’s (1976) conjecture that "an estimator utilizing relevant extraneous information

Filtering Methods for Error Reduction in Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Quaternion Star Trackers

Science.gov (United States)

Calhoun, Philip C.; Sedlak, Joseph E.; Superfin, Emil

2011-01-01

Precision attitude determination for recent and planned space missions typically includes quaternion star trackers (ST) and a three-axis inertial reference unit (IRU). Sensor selection is based on estimates of knowledge accuracy attainable from a Kalman filter (KF), which provides the optimal solution for the case of linear dynamics with measurement and process errors characterized by random Gaussian noise with white spectrum. Non-Gaussian systematic errors in quaternion STs are often quite large and have an unpredictable time-varying nature, particularly when used in non-inertial pointing applications. Two filtering methods are proposed to reduce the attitude estimation error resulting from ST systematic errors, 1) extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with Markov states, 2) Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) with a periodic measurement model. Realistic assessments of the attitude estimation performance gains are demonstrated with both simulation and flight telemetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Error detection in spoken human-machine interaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krahmer, E.J.; Swerts, M.G.J.; Theune, M.; Weegels, M.F.

2001-01-01

Given the state of the art of current language and speech technology, errors are unavoidable in present-day spoken dialogue systems. Therefore, one of the main concerns in dialogue design is how to decide whether or not the system has understood the user correctly. In human-human communication,

Error detection in spoken human-machine interaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krahmer, E.; Swerts, M.; Theune, Mariet; Weegels, M.

Given the state of the art of current language and speech technology, errors are unavoidable in present-day spoken dialogue systems. Therefore, one of the main concerns in dialogue design is how to decide whether or not the system has understood the user correctly. In human-human communication,

Error Estimation and Uncertainty Propagation in Computational Fluid Mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, J. Z.; He, Guowei; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Numerical simulation has now become an integral part of engineering design process. Critical design decisions are routinely made based on the simulation results and conclusions. Verification and validation of the reliability of the numerical simulation is therefore vitally important in the engineering design processes. We propose to develop theories and methodologies that can automatically provide quantitative information about the reliability of the numerical simulation by estimating numerical approximation error, computational model induced errors and the uncertainties contained in the mathematical models so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be verified and validated. We also propose to develop and implement methodologies and techniques that can control the error and uncertainty during the numerical simulation so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be improved.

A residual-based a posteriori error estimator for single-phase Darcy flow in fractured porous media

KAUST Repository

Chen, Huangxin; Sun, Shuyu

2016-01-01

for the problem with non-intersecting fractures. The reliability and efficiency of the a posteriori error estimator are established for the error measured in an energy norm. Numerical results verifying the robustness of the proposed a posteriori error estimator

Bias Errors due to Leakage Effects When Estimating Frequency Response Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Josefsson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Frequency response functions are often utilized to characterize a system's dynamic response. For a wide range of engineering applications, it is desirable to determine frequency response functions for a system under stochastic excitation. In practice, the measurement data is contaminated by noise and some form of averaging is needed in order to obtain a consistent estimator. With Welch's method, the discrete Fourier transform is used and the data is segmented into smaller blocks so that averaging can be performed when estimating the spectrum. However, this segmentation introduces leakage effects. As a result, the estimated frequency response function suffers from both systematic (bias and random errors due to leakage. In this paper the bias error in the H1 and H2-estimate is studied and a new method is proposed to derive an approximate expression for the relative bias error at the resonance frequency with different window functions. The method is based on using a sum of real exponentials to describe the window's deterministic autocorrelation function. Simple expressions are derived for a rectangular window and a Hanning window. The theoretical expressions are verified with numerical simulations and a very good agreement is found between the results from the proposed bias expressions and the empirical results.

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report

Error estimation of deformable image registration of pulmonary CT scans using convolutional neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eppenhof, K.A.J.; Pluim, J.P.W.

2018-01-01

Error estimation in nonlinear medical image registration is a nontrivial problem that is important for validation of registration methods. We propose a supervised method for estimation of registration errors in nonlinear registration of three-dimensional (3-D) images. The method is based on a 3-D

Are Low-order Covariance Estimates Useful in Error Analyses?

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, D. F.; Schimel, D.

2005-12-01

Atmospheric trace gas inversions, using modeled atmospheric transport to infer surface sources and sinks from measured concentrations, are most commonly done using least-squares techniques that return not only an estimate of the state (the surface fluxes) but also the covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in that estimate. Besides allowing one to place error bars around the estimate, the covariance matrix may be used in simulation studies to learn what uncertainties would be expected from various hypothetical observing strategies. This error analysis capability is routinely used in designing instrumentation, measurement campaigns, and satellite observing strategies. For example, Rayner, et al (2002) examined the ability of satellite-based column-integrated CO2 measurements to constrain monthly-average CO2 fluxes for about 100 emission regions using this approach. Exact solutions for both state vector and covariance matrix become computationally infeasible, however, when the surface fluxes are solved at finer resolution (e.g., daily in time, under 500 km in space). It is precisely at these finer scales, however, that one would hope to be able to estimate fluxes using high-density satellite measurements. Non-exact estimation methods such as variational data assimilation or the ensemble Kalman filter could be used, but they achieve their computational savings by obtaining an only approximate state estimate and a low-order approximation of the true covariance. One would like to be able to use this covariance matrix to do the same sort of error analyses as are done with the full-rank covariance, but is it correct to do so? Here we compare uncertainties and `information content' derived from full-rank covariance matrices obtained from a direct, batch least squares inversion to those from the incomplete-rank covariance matrices given by a variational data assimilation approach solved with a variable metric minimization technique (the Broyden-Fletcher- Goldfarb

Human errors evaluation for muster in emergency situations applying human error probability index (HEPI, in the oil company warehouse in Hamadan City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency situation is one of the influencing factors on human error. The aim of this research was purpose to evaluate human error in emergency situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse in Hamadan city applying human error probability index (HEPI. . Material and Method: First, the scenario of emergency situation of those situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse was designed and then maneuver against, was performed. The scaled questionnaire of muster for the maneuver was completed in the next stage. Collected data were analyzed to calculate the probability success for the 18 actions required in an emergency situation from starting point of the muster until the latest action to temporary sheltersafe. .Result: The result showed that the highest probability of error occurrence was related to make safe workplace (evaluation phase with 32.4 % and lowest probability of occurrence error in detection alarm (awareness phase with 1.8 %, probability. The highest severity of error was in the evaluation phase and the lowest severity of error was in the awareness and recovery phase. Maximum risk level was related to the evaluating exit routes and selecting one route and choosy another exit route and minimum risk level was related to the four evaluation phases. . Conclusion: To reduce the risk of reaction in the exit phases of an emergency situation, the following actions are recommended, based on the finding in this study: A periodic evaluation of the exit phase and modifying them if necessary, conducting more maneuvers and analyzing this results along with a sufficient feedback to the employees.

Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Jakeman, J. D.; Wildey, T.

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.

Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakeman, J.D.; Wildey, T.

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation

B-spline goal-oriented error estimators for geometrically nonlinear rods

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-01

respectively, for the output functionals q2–q4 (linear and nonlinear with the trigonometric functions sine and cosine) in all the tests considered...of the errors resulting from the linear, quadratic and nonlinear (with trigonometric functions sine and cosine) outputs and for p = 1, 2. If the... Portugal . References [1] A.T. Adams. Sobolev Spaces. Academic Press, Boston, 1975. [2] M. Ainsworth and J.T. Oden. A posteriori error estimation in

The Relationship between Human Operators' Psycho-physiological Condition and Human Errors in Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Arryum; Jang, Inseok; Kang, Hyungook; Seong, Poonghyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

The safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is substantially dependent on the performance of the human operators who operate the systems. In this environment, human errors caused by inappropriate performance of operator have been considered to be critical since it may lead serious problems in the safety-critical plants. In order to provide meaningful insights to prevent human errors and enhance the human performance, operators' physiological conditions such as stress and workload have been investigated. Physiological measurements were considered as reliable tools to assess the stress and workload. T. Q. Tran et al. and J. B. Brooking et al pointed out that operators' workload can be assessed using eye tracking, galvanic skin response, electroencephalograms (EEGs), heart rate, respiration and other measurements. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the human operators' tense level and knowledge level to the number of human errors. For this study, the experiments were conducted in the mimic of the main control rooms (MCR) in NPP. It utilized the compact nuclear simulator (CNS) which is modeled based on the three loop Pressurized Water Reactor, 993MWe, Kori unit 3 and 4 in Korea and the subjects were asked to follow the tasks described in the emergency operating procedures (EOP). During the simulation, three kinds of physiological measurement were utilized; Electrocardiogram (ECG), EEG and nose temperature. Also, subjects were divided into three groups based on their knowledge of the plant operation. The result shows that subjects who are tense make fewer errors. In addition, subjects who are in higher knowledge level tend to be tense and make fewer errors. For the ECG data, subjects who make fewer human errors tend to be located in higher tense level area of high SNS activity and low PSNS activity. The results of EEG data are also similar to ECG result. Beta power ratio of subjects who make fewer errors was higher. Since beta

Error estimation for goal-oriented spatial adaptivity for the SN equations on triangular meshes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lathouwers, D.

2011-01-01

In this paper we investigate different error estimation procedures for use within a goal oriented adaptive algorithm for the S N equations on unstructured meshes. The method is based on a dual-weighted residual approach where an appropriate adjoint problem is formulated and solved in order to obtain the importance of residual errors in the forward problem on the specific goal of interest. The forward residuals and the adjoint function are combined to obtain both economical finite element meshes tailored to the solution of the target functional as well as providing error estimates. Various approximations made to make the calculation of the adjoint angular flux more economically attractive are evaluated by comparing the performance of the resulting adaptive algorithm and the quality of the error estimators when applied to two shielding-type test problems. (author)

North error estimation based on solar elevation errors in the third step of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Száz, Dénes; Farkas, Alexandra; Barta, András; Kretzer, Balázs; Egri, Ádám; Horváth, Gábor

2016-07-01

The theory of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation has been widely accepted for decades without any information about the accuracy of this method. Previously, we have measured the accuracy of the first and second steps of this navigation method in psychophysical laboratory and planetarium experiments. Now, we have tested the accuracy of the third step in a planetarium experiment, assuming that the first and second steps are errorless. Using the fists of their outstretched arms, 10 test persons had to estimate the elevation angles (measured in numbers of fists and fingers) of black dots (representing the position of the occluded Sun) projected onto the planetarium dome. The test persons performed 2400 elevation estimations, 48% of which were more accurate than ±1°. We selected three test persons with the (i) largest and (ii) smallest elevation errors and (iii) highest standard deviation of the elevation error. From the errors of these three persons, we calculated their error function, from which the North errors (the angles with which they deviated from the geographical North) were determined for summer solstice and spring equinox, two specific dates of the Viking sailing period. The range of possible North errors Δ ω N was the lowest and highest at low and high solar elevations, respectively. At high elevations, the maximal Δ ω N was 35.6° and 73.7° at summer solstice and 23.8° and 43.9° at spring equinox for the best and worst test person (navigator), respectively. Thus, the best navigator was twice as good as the worst one. At solstice and equinox, high elevations occur the most frequently during the day, thus high North errors could occur more frequently than expected before. According to our findings, the ideal periods for sky-polarimetric Viking navigation are immediately after sunrise and before sunset, because the North errors are the lowest at low solar elevations.

Effect of the Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Estimation Error on Net Primary Production Estimation - A Study with MODIS FPAR and TOMS Ultraviolet Reflective Products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hoyano, A.

2002-01-01

Absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), which is defined as downward solar radiation in 400-700 nm absorbed by vegetation, is one of the significant variables for Net Primary Production (NPP) estimation from satellite data. Toward the reduction of the uncertainties in the global NPP estimation, it is necessary to clarify the APAR accuracy. In this paper, first we proposed the improved PAR estimation method based on Eck and Dye's method in which the ultraviolet (UV) reflectivity data derived from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) at the top of atmosphere were used for clouds transmittance estimation. The proposed method considered the variable effects of land surface UV reflectivity on the satellite-observed UV data. Monthly mean PAR comparisons between satellite-derived and ground-based data at various meteorological stations in Japan indicated that the improved PAR estimation method reduced the bias errors in the summer season. Assuming the relative error of the fraction of PAR (FPAR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to be 10%, we estimated APAR relative errors to be 10-15%. Annual NPP is calculated using APAR derived from MODIS/ FPAR and the improved PAR estimation method. It is shown that random and bias errors of annual NPP in a 1 km resolution pixel are less than 4% and 6% respectively. The APAR bias errors due to the PAR bias errors also affect the estimated total NPP. We estimated the most probable total annual NPP in Japan by subtracting the bias PAR errors. It amounts about 248 MtC/yr. Using the improved PAR estimation method, and Eck and Dye's method, total annual NPP is 4% and 9% difference from most probable value respectively. The previous intercomparison study among using fifteen NPP models4) showed that global NPP estimations among NPP models are 44.4-66.3 GtC/yr (coefficient of variation = 14%). Hence we conclude that the NPP estimation uncertainty due to APAR estimation error is small

Goal-oriented error estimation for Cahn-Hilliard models of binary phase transition

KAUST Repository

van der Zee, Kristoffer G.

2010-10-27

A posteriori estimates of errors in quantities of interest are developed for the nonlinear system of evolution equations embodied in the Cahn-Hilliard model of binary phase transition. These involve the analysis of wellposedness of dual backward-in-time problems and the calculation of residuals. Mixed finite element approximations are developed and used to deliver numerical solutions of representative problems in one- and two-dimensional domains. Estimated errors are shown to be quite accurate in these numerical examples. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Error estimates for discretized quantum stochastic differential inclusions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayoola, E.O.

2001-09-01

This paper is concerned with the error estimates involved in the solution of a discrete approximation of a quantum stochastic differential inclusion (QSDI). Our main results rely on certain properties of the averaged modulus of continuity for multivalued sesquilinear forms associated with QSDI. We obtained results concerning the estimates of the Hausdorff distance between the set of solutions of the QSDI and the set of solutions of its discrete approximation. This extend the results of Dontchev and Farkhi concerning classical differential inclusions to the present noncommutative Quantum setting involving inclusions in certain locally convex space. (author)

A system engineer's Perspective on Human Errors For a more Effective Management of Human Factors in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong-Hee; Jang, Tong-Il; Lee, Soo-Kil

2007-01-01

The management of human factors in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has become one of the burden factors during their operating period after the design and construction period. Almost every study on the major accidents emphasizes the prominent importance of the human errors. Regardless of the regulatory requirements such as Periodic Safety Review, the management of human factors would be a main issue to reduce the human errors and to enhance the performance of plants. However, it is not easy to find out a more effective perspective on human errors to establish the engineering implementation plan for preventing them. This paper describes a system engineer's perspectives on human errors and discusses its application to the recent study on the human error events in Korean NPPs

Influence of the statistical distribution of bioassay measurement errors on the intake estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, T. Y; Kim, J. K

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide the guidance necessary for making a selection of error distributions by analyzing influence of statistical distribution for a type of bioassay measurement error on the intake estimation. For this purpose, intakes were estimated using maximum likelihood method for cases that error distributions are normal and lognormal, and comparisons between two distributions for the estimated intakes were made. According to the results of this study, in case that measurement results for lung retention are somewhat greater than the limit of detection it appeared that distribution types have negligible influence on the results. Whereas in case of measurement results for the daily excretion rate, the results obtained from assumption of a lognormal distribution were 10% higher than those obtained from assumption of a normal distribution. In view of these facts, in case where uncertainty component is governed by counting statistics it is considered that distribution type have no influence on intake estimation. Whereas in case where the others are predominant, it is concluded that it is clearly desirable to estimate the intake assuming a lognormal distribution

On the error estimation and T-stability of the Mann iteration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maruster, Laura; Maruster, St.

2015-01-01

A formula of error estimation of Mann iteration is given in the case of strongly demicontractive mappings. Based on this estimation, a condition of strong convergence is obtained for the same class of mappings. T-stability for a particular case of strongly demicontractive mappings is proved. Some

A posteriori error estimates for axisymmetric and nonlinear problems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Křížek, Michal; Němec, J.; Vejchodský, Tomáš

2001-01-01

Roč. 15, - (2001), s. 219-236 ISSN 1019-7168 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/01/1200; GA MŠk ME 148 Keywords : weigted Sobolev spaces%a posteriori error estimates%finite elements Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.886, year: 2001

A stochastic dynamic model for human error analysis in nuclear power plants

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado-Loperena, Dharma

Nuclear disasters like Three Mile Island and Chernobyl indicate that human performance is a critical safety issue, sending a clear message about the need to include environmental press and competence aspects in research. This investigation was undertaken to serve as a roadmap for studying human behavior through the formulation of a general solution equation. The theoretical model integrates models from two heretofore-disassociated disciplines (behavior specialists and technical specialists), that historically have independently studied the nature of error and human behavior; including concepts derived from fractal and chaos theory; and suggests re-evaluation of base theory regarding human error. The results of this research were based on comprehensive analysis of patterns of error, with the omnipresent underlying structure of chaotic systems. The study of patterns lead to a dynamic formulation, serving for any other formula used to study human error consequences. The search for literature regarding error yielded insight for the need to include concepts rooted in chaos theory and strange attractors---heretofore unconsidered by mainstream researchers who investigated human error in nuclear power plants or those who employed the ecological model in their work. The study of patterns obtained from the rupture of a steam generator tube (SGTR) event simulation, provided a direct application to aspects of control room operations in nuclear power plant operations. In doing so, the conceptual foundation based in the understanding of the patterns of human error analysis can be gleaned, resulting in reduced and prevent undesirable events.

Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobol' , I.M. [Institute for Mathematical Modelling of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: debora.gatelli@jrc.it; Kucherenko, S.S. [Imperial College London (United Kingdom); Mauntz, W. [Department of Biochemical and Chemical Engineering, Dortmund University (Germany)

2007-07-15

One of the major settings of global sensitivity analysis is that of fixing non-influential factors, in order to reduce the dimensionality of a model. However, this is often done without knowing the magnitude of the approximation error being produced. This paper presents a new theorem for the estimation of the average approximation error generated when fixing a group of non-influential factors. A simple function where analytical solutions are available is used to illustrate the theorem. The numerical estimation of small sensitivity indices is discussed.

Computable Error Estimates for Finite Element Approximations of Elliptic Partial Differential Equations with Rough Stochastic Data

KAUST Repository

Hall, Eric Joseph

2016-12-08

We derive computable error estimates for finite element approximations of linear elliptic partial differential equations with rough stochastic coefficients. In this setting, the exact solutions contain high frequency content that standard a posteriori error estimates fail to capture. We propose goal-oriented estimates, based on local error indicators, for the pathwise Galerkin and expected quadrature errors committed in standard, continuous, piecewise linear finite element approximations. Derived using easily validated assumptions, these novel estimates can be computed at a relatively low cost and have applications to subsurface flow problems in geophysics where the conductivities are assumed to have lognormal distributions with low regularity. Our theory is supported by numerical experiments on test problems in one and two dimensions.

Operator error and emotions. Operator error and emotions - a major cause of human failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patterson, B.K.; Bradley, M.; Artiss, W.G.

2000-01-01

This paper proposes the idea that a large proportion of the incidents attributed to operator and maintenance error in a nuclear or industrial plant are actually founded in our human emotions. Basic psychological theory of emotions is briefly presented and then the authors present situations and instances that can cause emotions to swell and lead to operator and maintenance error. Since emotional information is not recorded in industrial incident reports, the challenge is extended to industry, to review incident source documents for cases of emotional involvement and to develop means to collect emotion related information in future root cause analysis investigations. Training must then be provided to operators and maintainers to enable them to know one's emotions, manage emotions, motivate one's self, recognize emotions in others and handle relationships. Effective training will reduce the instances of human error based in emotions and enable a cooperative, productive environment in which to work. (author)

Operator error and emotions. Operator error and emotions - a major cause of human failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patterson, B.K. [Human Factors Practical Incorporated (Canada); Bradley, M. [Univ. of New Brunswick, Saint John, New Brunswick (Canada); Artiss, W.G. [Human Factors Practical (Canada)

2000-07-01

This paper proposes the idea that a large proportion of the incidents attributed to operator and maintenance error in a nuclear or industrial plant are actually founded in our human emotions. Basic psychological theory of emotions is briefly presented and then the authors present situations and instances that can cause emotions to swell and lead to operator and maintenance error. Since emotional information is not recorded in industrial incident reports, the challenge is extended to industry, to review incident source documents for cases of emotional involvement and to develop means to collect emotion related information in future root cause analysis investigations. Training must then be provided to operators and maintainers to enable them to know one's emotions, manage emotions, motivate one's self, recognize emotions in others and handle relationships. Effective training will reduce the instances of human error based in emotions and enable a cooperative, productive environment in which to work. (author)

Estimation of Mechanical Signals in Induction Motors using the Recursive Prediction Error Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Børsting, H.; Knudsen, Morten; Rasmussen, Henrik

1993-01-01

Sensor feedback of mechanical quantities for control applications in induction motors is troublesome and relative expensive. In this paper a recursive prediction error (RPE) method has successfully been used to estimate the angular rotor speed ........Sensor feedback of mechanical quantities for control applications in induction motors is troublesome and relative expensive. In this paper a recursive prediction error (RPE) method has successfully been used to estimate the angular rotor speed .....

The common mode failures analysis of the redundent system with dependent human error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, M.K.; Chang, S.H.

1983-01-01

Common mode failures (CMFs) have been a serious concern in the nuclear power plant. Thereis a broad category of the failure mechanisms that can cause common mode failures. This paper is a theoretical investigation of the CMFs on the unavailability of the redundent system. It is assumed that the total CMFs consist of the potential CMFs and the dependent human error CMFs. As the human error dependency is higher, the total CMFs are more effected by the dependent human error. If the human error dependence is lower, the system unavailability strongly depends on the potential CMFs, rather than the mechanical failure or the dependent human error. And it is shown that the total CMFs are dominant factor to the unavailability of the redundent system. (Author)

Error Estimates for the Approximation of the Effective Hamiltonian

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camilli, Fabio; Capuzzo Dolcetta, Italo; Gomes, Diogo A.

2008-01-01

We study approximation schemes for the cell problem arising in homogenization of Hamilton-Jacobi equations. We prove several error estimates concerning the rate of convergence of the approximation scheme to the effective Hamiltonian, both in the optimal control setting and as well as in the calculus of variations setting

A strategy for minimizing common mode human error in executing critical functions and tasks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.; Lindsay, R.W.

1992-01-01

Human error in execution of critical functions and tasks can be costly. The Three Mile Island and the Chernobyl Accidents are examples of results from human error in the nuclear industry. There are similar errors that could no doubt be cited from other industries. This paper discusses a strategy to minimize common mode human error in the execution of critical functions and tasks. The strategy consists of the use of human redundancy, and also diversity in human cognitive behavior: skill-, rule-, and knowledge-based behavior. The authors contend that the use of diversity in human cognitive behavior is possible, and it minimizes common mode error

Human error in maintenance: An investigative study for the factories of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, B S

2014-01-01

This paper presents a study of human error in maintenance. Many different aspects of human error in maintenance considered useful for the factories of the future are studied, including facts, figures, and examples; occurrence of maintenance error in equipment life cycle, elements of a maintenance person's time, maintenance environment and the causes for the occurrence of maintenance error, types and typical maintenance errors, common maintainability design errors and useful design guidelines to reduce equipment maintenance errors, maintenance work instructions, and maintenance error analysis methods

A Posteriori Error Estimates Including Algebraic Error and Stopping Criteria for Iterative Solvers

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jiránek, P.; Strakoš, Zdeněk; Vohralík, M.

2010-01-01

Roč. 32, č. 3 (2010), s. 1567-1590 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GP201/09/P464 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : second-order elliptic partial differential equation * finite volume method * a posteriori error estimates * iterative methods for linear algebraic systems * conjugate gradient method * stopping criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.016, year: 2010

Development of an Experimental Measurement System for Human Error Characteristics and a Pilot Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Tong-Il; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Moon, Kwangsu

2017-01-01

Some items out of individual and team characteristics were partially selected, and a pilot test was performed to measure and evaluate them using the experimental measurement system of human error characteristics. It is one of the processes to produce input data to the Eco-DBMS. And also, through the pilot test, it was tried to take methods to measure and acquire the physiological data, and to develop data format and quantification methods for the database. In this study, a pilot test to measure the stress and the tension level, and team cognitive characteristics out of human error characteristics was performed using the human error characteristics measurement and experimental evaluation system. In an experiment measuring the stress level, physiological characteristics using EEG was measured in a simulated unexpected situation. As shown in results, although this experiment was pilot, it was validated that relevant results for evaluating human error coping effects of workers’ FFD management guidelines and unexpected situation against guidelines can be obtained. In following researches, additional experiments including other human error characteristics will be conducted. Furthermore, the human error characteristics measurement and experimental evaluation system will be utilized to validate various human error coping solutions such as human factors criteria, design, and guidelines as well as supplement the human error characteristics database.

Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Locatelli

2013-10-01

Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

A Conceptual Framework of Human Reliability Analysis for Execution Human Error in NPP Advanced MCRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, In Seok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

The operation environment of Main Control Rooms (MCRs) in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) has changed with the adoption of new human-system interfaces that are based on computer-based technologies. The MCRs that include these digital and computer technologies, such as large display panels, computerized procedures, and soft controls, are called Advanced MCRs. Among the many features of Advanced MCRs, soft controls are a particularly important feature because the operation action in NPP Advanced MCRs is performed by soft control. Using soft controls such as mouse control, and touch screens, operators can select a specific screen, then choose the controller, and finally manipulate the given devices. Due to the different interfaces between soft control and hardwired conventional type control, different human error probabilities and a new Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) framework should be considered in the HRA for advanced MCRs. In other words, new human error modes should be considered for interface management tasks such as navigation tasks, and icon (device) selection tasks in monitors and a new framework of HRA method taking these newly generated human error modes into account should be considered. In this paper, a conceptual framework for a HRA method for the evaluation of soft control execution human error in advanced MCRs is suggested by analyzing soft control tasks.

A Conceptual Framework of Human Reliability Analysis for Execution Human Error in NPP Advanced MCRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, In Seok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun; Jung, Won Dea

2014-01-01

The operation environment of Main Control Rooms (MCRs) in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) has changed with the adoption of new human-system interfaces that are based on computer-based technologies. The MCRs that include these digital and computer technologies, such as large display panels, computerized procedures, and soft controls, are called Advanced MCRs. Among the many features of Advanced MCRs, soft controls are a particularly important feature because the operation action in NPP Advanced MCRs is performed by soft control. Using soft controls such as mouse control, and touch screens, operators can select a specific screen, then choose the controller, and finally manipulate the given devices. Due to the different interfaces between soft control and hardwired conventional type control, different human error probabilities and a new Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) framework should be considered in the HRA for advanced MCRs. In other words, new human error modes should be considered for interface management tasks such as navigation tasks, and icon (device) selection tasks in monitors and a new framework of HRA method taking these newly generated human error modes into account should be considered. In this paper, a conceptual framework for a HRA method for the evaluation of soft control execution human error in advanced MCRs is suggested by analyzing soft control tasks

A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostolakis, G.E.

1988-01-01

This paper critically reviews two groups of models for assessing human error rates under accident conditions. The first group, which includes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) handbook model and the human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, considers as fundamental the time that is available to the operators to act. The second group, which is represented by the success likelihood index methodology multiattribute utility decomposition (SLIM-MAUD) model, relies on ratings of the human actions with respect to certain qualitative factors and the subsequent derivation of error rates. These models are evaluated with respect to two criteria: the treatment of uncertainties and the internal coherence of the models. In other words, this evaluation focuses primarily on normative aspects of these models. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Both of the time-related models provide human error rates as a function of the available time for action and the prevailing conditions. However, the HCR model ignores the important issue of state-of-knowledge uncertainties, dealing exclusively with stochastic uncertainty, whereas the model presented in the NRC handbook handles both types of uncertainty. (2) SLIM-MAUD provides a highly structured approach for the derivation of human error rates under given conditions. However, the treatment of the weights and ratings in this model is internally inconsistent. (author)

Quality of IT service delivery — Analysis and framework for human error prevention

KAUST Repository

Shwartz, L.

2010-12-01

In this paper, we address the problem of reducing the occurrence of Human Errors that cause service interruptions in IT Service Support and Delivery operations. Analysis of a large volume of service interruption records revealed that more than 21% of interruptions were caused by human error. We focus on Change Management, the process with the largest risk of human error, and identify the main instances of human errors as the 4 Wrongs: request, time, configuration item, and command. Analysis of change records revealed that the humanerror prevention by partial automation is highly relevant. We propose the HEP Framework, a framework for execution of IT Service Delivery operations that reduces human error by addressing the 4 Wrongs using content integration, contextualization of operation patterns, partial automation of command execution, and controlled access to resources.

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS DENGAN PENDEKATAN COGNITIVE RELIABILITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS METHOD (CREAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahirah Alifia Maulida

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Kecelakaan kerja pada bidang grinding dan welding menempati urutan tertinggi selama lima tahun terakhir di PT. X. Kecelakaan ini disebabkan oleh human error. Human error terjadi karena pengaruh lingkungan kerja fisik dan non fisik.Penelitian kali menggunakan skenario untuk memprediksi serta mengurangi kemungkinan terjadinya error pada manusia dengan pendekatan CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM adalah salah satu metode human reliability analysis yang berfungsi untuk mendapatkan nilai Cognitive Failure Probability (CFP yang dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara yaitu basic method dan extended method. Pada basic method hanya akan didapatkan nilai failure probabailty secara umum, sedangkan untuk extended method akan didapatkan CFP untuk setiap task. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan faktor- faktor yang mempengaruhi timbulnya error pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding adalah kecukupan organisasi, kecukupan dari Man Machine Interface (MMI & dukungan operasional, ketersediaan prosedur/ perencanaan, serta kecukupan pelatihan dan pengalaman. Aspek kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding yang memiliki nilai error paling tinggi adalah planning dengan nilai CFP 0.3 dan pada pekerjaan welding yaitu aspek kognitif execution dengan nilai CFP 0.18. Sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi nilai error kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding rekomendasi yang diberikan adalah memberikan training secara rutin, work instrucstion yang lebih rinci dan memberikan sosialisasi alat. Kata kunci: CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method, HRA (human reliability analysis, cognitive error Abstract The accidents in grinding and welding sectors were the highest cases over the last five years in PT. X and it caused by human error. Human error occurs due to the influence of working environment both physically and non-physically. This study will implement an approaching scenario called CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM is one of human

Missing texture reconstruction method based on error reduction algorithm using Fourier transform magnitude estimation scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, Takahiro; Haseyama, Miki

2013-03-01

A missing texture reconstruction method based on an error reduction (ER) algorithm, including a novel estimation scheme of Fourier transform magnitudes is presented in this brief. In our method, Fourier transform magnitude is estimated for a target patch including missing areas, and the missing intensities are estimated by retrieving its phase based on the ER algorithm. Specifically, by monitoring errors converged in the ER algorithm, known patches whose Fourier transform magnitudes are similar to that of the target patch are selected from the target image. In the second approach, the Fourier transform magnitude of the target patch is estimated from those of the selected known patches and their corresponding errors. Consequently, by using the ER algorithm, we can estimate both the Fourier transform magnitudes and phases to reconstruct the missing areas.

Uncorrected refractive errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Naidoo, Kovin S; Jaggernath, Jyoti

2012-01-01

Global estimates indicate that more than 2.3 billion people in the world suffer from poor vision due to refractive error; of which 670 million people are considered visually impaired because they do not have access to corrective treatment. Refractive errors, if uncorrected, results in an impaired quality of life for millions of people worldwide, irrespective of their age, sex and ethnicity. Over the past decade, a series of studies using a survey methodology, referred to as Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC), were performed in populations with different ethnic origins and cultural settings. These studies confirmed that the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors is considerably high for children in low-and-middle-income countries. Furthermore, uncorrected refractive error has been noted to have extensive social and economic impacts, such as limiting educational and employment opportunities of economically active persons, healthy individuals and communities. The key public health challenges presented by uncorrected refractive errors, the leading cause of vision impairment across the world, require urgent attention. To address these issues, it is critical to focus on the development of human resources and sustainable methods of service delivery. This paper discusses three core pillars to addressing the challenges posed by uncorrected refractive errors: Human Resource (HR) Development, Service Development and Social Entrepreneurship.

Uncorrected refractive errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kovin S Naidoo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global estimates indicate that more than 2.3 billion people in the world suffer from poor vision due to refractive error; of which 670 million people are considered visually impaired because they do not have access to corrective treatment. Refractive errors, if uncorrected, results in an impaired quality of life for millions of people worldwide, irrespective of their age, sex and ethnicity. Over the past decade, a series of studies using a survey methodology, referred to as Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC, were performed in populations with different ethnic origins and cultural settings. These studies confirmed that the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors is considerably high for children in low-and-middle-income countries. Furthermore, uncorrected refractive error has been noted to have extensive social and economic impacts, such as limiting educational and employment opportunities of economically active persons, healthy individuals and communities. The key public health challenges presented by uncorrected refractive errors, the leading cause of vision impairment across the world, require urgent attention. To address these issues, it is critical to focus on the development of human resources and sustainable methods of service delivery. This paper discusses three core pillars to addressing the challenges posed by uncorrected refractive errors: Human Resource (HR Development, Service Development and Social Entrepreneurship.

Some aspects of statistical modeling of human-error probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prairie, R.R.

1982-01-01

Human reliability analyses (HRA) are often performed as part of risk assessment and reliability projects. Recent events in nuclear power have shown the potential importance of the human element. There are several on-going efforts in the US and elsewhere with the purpose of modeling human error such that the human contribution can be incorporated into an overall risk assessment associated with one or more aspects of nuclear power. An effort that is described here uses the HRA (event tree) to quantify and model the human contribution to risk. As an example, risk analyses are being prepared on several nuclear power plants as part of the Interim Reliability Assessment Program (IREP). In this process the risk analyst selects the elements of his fault tree that could be contributed to by human error. He then solicits the HF analyst to do a HRA on this element

Using cell phone location to assess misclassification errors in air pollution exposure estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Haofei; Russell, Armistead; Mulholland, James; Huang, Zhijiong

2018-02-01

Air pollution epidemiologic and health impact studies often rely on home addresses to estimate individual subject's pollution exposure. In this study, we used detailed cell phone location data, the call detail record (CDR), to account for the impact of spatiotemporal subject mobility on estimates of ambient air pollutant exposure. This approach was applied on a sample with 9886 unique simcard IDs in Shenzhen, China, on one mid-week day in October 2013. Hourly ambient concentrations of six chosen pollutants were simulated by the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model fused with observational data, and matched with detailed location data for these IDs. The results were compared with exposure estimates using home addresses to assess potential exposure misclassification errors. We found the misclassifications errors are likely to be substantial when home location alone is applied. The CDR based approach indicates that the home based approach tends to over-estimate exposures for subjects with higher exposure levels and under-estimate exposures for those with lower exposure levels. Our results show that the cell phone location based approach can be used to assess exposure misclassification error and has the potential for improving exposure estimates in air pollution epidemiology studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

2016-01-01

In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

An Analysis and Quantification Method of Human Errors of Soft Controls in Advanced MCRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jae Whan; Jang, Seung Cheol

2011-01-01

In this work, a method was proposed for quantifying human errors that may occur during operation executions using soft control. Soft controls of advanced main control rooms (MCRs) have totally different features from conventional controls, and thus they may have different human error modes and occurrence probabilities. It is important to define the human error modes and to quantify the error probability for evaluating the reliability of the system and preventing errors. This work suggests a modified K-HRA method for quantifying error probability

A TOA-AOA-Based NLOS Error Mitigation Method for Location Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianshuang Qiu

2007-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a geometric method to locate a mobile station (MS in a mobile cellular network when both the range and angle measurements are corrupted by non-line-of-sight (NLOS errors. The MS location is restricted to an enclosed region by geometric constraints from the temporal-spatial characteristics of the radio propagation channel. A closed-form equation of the MS position, time of arrival (TOA, angle of arrival (AOA, and angle spread is provided. The solution space of the equation is very large because the angle spreads are random variables in nature. A constrained objective function is constructed to further limit the MS position. A Lagrange multiplier-based solution and a numerical solution are proposed to resolve the MS position. The estimation quality of the estimator in term of “biased” or “unbiased” is discussed. The scale factors, which may be used to evaluate NLOS propagation level, can be estimated by the proposed method. AOA seen at base stations may be corrected to some degree. The performance comparisons among the proposed method and other hybrid location methods are investigated on different NLOS error models and with two scenarios of cell layout. It is found that the proposed method can deal with NLOS error effectively, and it is attractive for location estimation in cellular networks.

Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

2003-07-01

Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

A review of some a posteriori error estimates for adaptive finite element methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Segeth, Karel

2010-01-01

Roč. 80, č. 8 (2010), s. 1589-1600 ISSN 0378-4754. [European Seminar on Coupled Problems. Jetřichovice, 08.06.2008-13.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100190803 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : hp-adaptive finite element method * a posteriori error estimators * computational error estimates Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.812, year: 2010 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475408004230

Using a Delphi Method to Identify Human Factors Contributing to Nursing Errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Cheryl; Brewer, Melanie; Wieck, K Lynn

2017-07-01

The purpose of this study was to identify human factors associated with nursing errors. Using a Delphi technique, this study used feedback from a panel of nurse experts (n = 25) on an initial qualitative survey questionnaire followed by summarizing the results with feedback and confirmation. Synthesized factors regarding causes of errors were incorporated into a quantitative Likert-type scale, and the original expert panel participants were queried a second time to validate responses. The list identified 24 items as most common causes of nursing errors, including swamping and errors made by others that nurses are expected to recognize and fix. The responses provided a consensus top 10 errors list based on means with heavy workload and fatigue at the top of the list. The use of the Delphi survey established consensus and developed a platform upon which future study of nursing errors can evolve as a link to future solutions. This list of human factors in nursing errors should serve to stimulate dialogue among nurses about how to prevent errors and improve outcomes. Human and system failures have been the subject of an abundance of research, yet nursing errors continue to occur. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using HET taxonomy to help stop human error

OpenAIRE

Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Stanton, Neville A.; Hsu, Yueh-Ling; Chang, Danny; Wang, Thomas; Young, Hong-Tsu

2010-01-01

Flight crews make positive contributions to the safety of aviation operations. Pilots have to assess continuously changing situations, evaluate potential risks, and make quick decisions. However, even well-trained and experienced pilots make errors. Accident investigations have identified that pilots’ performance is influenced significantly by the design of the flightdeck interface. This research applies hierarchical task analysis (HTA) and utilizes the Human Error Template (HET) taxonomy to ...

Human error prediction and countermeasures based on CREAM in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jae San

2007-02-01

Since the 1980s, in order to secure the storage capacity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at NPPs, SNF assemblies have been transported on-site from one unit to another unit nearby. However in the future the amount of the spent fuel will approach capacity in the areas used, and some of these SNFs will have to be transported to an off-site spent fuel repository. Most SNF materials used at NPPs will be transported by general cargo ships from abroad, and these SNFs will be stored in an interim storage facility. In the process of transporting SNF, human interactions will involve inspecting and preparing the cask and spent fuel, loading the cask onto the vehicle or ship, transferring the cask as well as storage or monitoring the cask. The transportation of SNF involves a number of activities that depend on reliable human performance. In the case of the transport of a cask, human errors may include spent fuel bundle misidentification or cask transport accidents among others. Reviews of accident events when transporting the Radioactive Material (RAM) throughout the world indicate that human error is the major causes for more than 65% of significant events. For the safety of SNF transportation, it is very important to predict human error and to deduce a method that minimizes the human error. This study examines the human factor effects on the safety of transporting spent nuclear fuel (SNF). It predicts and identifies the possible human errors in the SNF transport process (loading, transfer and storage of the SNF). After evaluating the human error mode in each transport process, countermeasures to minimize the human error are deduced. The human errors in SNF transportation were analyzed using Hollnagel's Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM). After determining the important factors for each process, countermeasures to minimize human error are provided in three parts: System design, Operational environment, and Human ability

Human Error and the International Space Station: Challenges and Triumphs in Science Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Samantha S.; Simpson, Beau C.

2016-01-01

Any system with a human component is inherently risky. Studies in human factors and psychology have repeatedly shown that human operators will inevitably make errors, regardless of how well they are trained. Onboard the International Space Station (ISS) where crew time is arguably the most valuable resource, errors by the crew or ground operators can be costly to critical science objectives. Operations experts at the ISS Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC), located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, have learned that from payload concept development through execution, there are countless opportunities to introduce errors that can potentially result in costly losses of crew time and science. To effectively address this challenge, we must approach the design, testing, and operation processes with two specific goals in mind. First, a systematic approach to error and human centered design methodology should be implemented to minimize opportunities for user error. Second, we must assume that human errors will be made and enable rapid identification and recoverability when they occur. While a systematic approach and human centered development process can go a long way toward eliminating error, the complete exclusion of operator error is not a reasonable expectation. The ISS environment in particular poses challenging conditions, especially for flight controllers and astronauts. Operating a scientific laboratory 250 miles above the Earth is a complicated and dangerous task with high stakes and a steep learning curve. While human error is a reality that may never be fully eliminated, smart implementation of carefully chosen tools and techniques can go a long way toward minimizing risk and increasing the efficiency of NASA's space science operations.

Cause analysis and preventives for human error events in Daya Bay NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Weigang; Zhang Li

1998-01-01

Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant is put into commercial operation in 1994 Until 1996, there are 368 human error events in operating and maintenance area, occupying 39% of total events. These events occurred mainly in the processes of maintenance, test equipment isolation and system on-line, in particular in refuelling and maintenance. The author analyses root causes for human errorievents, which are mainly operator omission or error procedure deficiency; procedure not followed; lack of training; communication failures; work management inadequacy. The protective measures and treatment principle for human error events are also discussed, and several examples applying them are given. Finally, it is put forward that key to prevent human error event lies in the coordination and management, person in charge of work, and good work habits of staffs

Detailed semantic analyses of human error incidents occurring at nuclear power plants. Extraction of periodical transition of error occurrence patterns by applying multivariate analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirotsu, Yuko; Suzuki, Kunihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Kojima, Mitsuhiro

2000-01-01

It is essential for preventing the recurrence of human error incidents to analyze and evaluate them with the emphasis on human factor. Detailed and structured analyses of all incidents at domestic nuclear power plants (NPPs) reported during last 31 years have been conducted based on J-HPES, in which total 193 human error cases are identified. Results obtained by the analyses have been stored into the J-HPES database. In the previous study, by applying multivariate analysis to above case studies, it was suggested that there were several occurrence patterns identified of how errors occur at NPPs. It was also clarified that the causes related to each human error are different depending on age of their occurrence. This paper described the obtained results in respects of periodical transition of human error occurrence patterns. By applying multivariate analysis to the above data, it was suggested there were two types of error occurrence patterns as to each human error type. First type is common occurrence patterns, not depending on the age, and second type is the one influenced by periodical characteristics. (author)

ERROR BOUNDS FOR SURFACE AREA ESTIMATORS BASED ON CROFTON’S FORMULA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Kiderlen

2011-05-01

Full Text Available According to Crofton's formula, the surface area S(A of a sufficiently regular compact set A in Rd is proportional to the mean of all total projections pA (u on a linear hyperplane with normal u, uniformly averaged over all unit vectors u. In applications, pA (u is only measured in k directions and the mean is approximated by a finite weighted sum bS(A of the total projections in these directions. The choice of the weights depends on the selected quadrature rule. We define an associated zonotope Z (depending only on the projection directions and the quadrature rule, and show that the relative error bS (A/S (A is bounded from below by the inradius of Z and from above by the circumradius of Z. Applying a strengthened isoperimetric inequality due to Bonnesen, we show that the rectangular quadrature rule does not give the best possible error bounds for d =2. In addition, we derive asymptotic behavior of the error (with increasing k in the planar case. The paper concludes with applications to surface area estimation in design-based digital stereology where we show that the weights due to Bonnesen's inequality are better than the usual weights based on the rectangular rule and almost optimal in the sense that the relative error of the surface area estimator is very close to the minimal error.

Error estimation in multitemporal InSAR deformation time series, with application to Lanzarote, Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

GonzáLez, Pablo J.; FernáNdez, José

2011-10-01

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a reliable technique for measuring crustal deformation. However, despite its long application in geophysical problems, its error estimation has been largely overlooked. Currently, the largest problem with InSAR is still the atmospheric propagation errors, which is why multitemporal interferometric techniques have been successfully developed using a series of interferograms. However, none of the standard multitemporal interferometric techniques, namely PS or SB (Persistent Scatterers and Small Baselines, respectively) provide an estimate of their precision. Here, we present a method to compute reliable estimates of the precision of the deformation time series. We implement it for the SB multitemporal interferometric technique (a favorable technique for natural terrains, the most usual target of geophysical applications). We describe the method that uses a properly weighted scheme that allows us to compute estimates for all interferogram pixels, enhanced by a Montecarlo resampling technique that properly propagates the interferogram errors (variance-covariances) into the unknown parameters (estimated errors for the displacements). We apply the multitemporal error estimation method to Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), where no active magmatic activity has been reported in the last decades. We detect deformation around Timanfaya volcano (lengthening of line-of-sight ˜ subsidence), where the last eruption in 1730-1736 occurred. Deformation closely follows the surface temperature anomalies indicating that magma crystallization (cooling and contraction) of the 300-year shallow magmatic body under Timanfaya volcano is still ongoing.

A Fast Soft Bit Error Rate Estimation Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ait-Idir Tarik

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We have suggested in a previous publication a method to estimate the Bit Error Rate (BER of a digital communications system instead of using the famous Monte Carlo (MC simulation. This method was based on the estimation of the probability density function (pdf of soft observed samples. The kernel method was used for the pdf estimation. In this paper, we suggest to use a Gaussian Mixture (GM model. The Expectation Maximisation algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of this mixture. The optimal number of Gaussians is computed by using Mutual Information Theory. The analytical expression of the BER is therefore simply given by using the different estimated parameters of the Gaussian Mixture. Simulation results are presented to compare the three mentioned methods: Monte Carlo, Kernel and Gaussian Mixture. We analyze the performance of the proposed BER estimator in the framework of a multiuser code division multiple access system and show that attractive performance is achieved compared with conventional MC or Kernel aided techniques. The results show that the GM method can drastically reduce the needed number of samples to estimate the BER in order to reduce the required simulation run-time, even at very low BER.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Effects of exposure estimation errors on estimated exposure-response relations for PM2.5.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2018-07-01

Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes, from autism and auto theft to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime, have been widely reported. Influential articles have argued that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes. Yet, other studies have found that reducing black smoke and other particulate matter by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them. This paper examines whether this disconnect between association and causation might be explained in part by ignored estimation errors in estimated exposure concentrations. We use EPA air quality monitor data from the Los Angeles area of California to examine the shapes of estimated C-R functions for PM2.5 when the true C-R functions are assumed to be step functions with well-defined response thresholds. The estimated C-R functions mistakenly show risk as smoothly increasing with concentrations even well below the response thresholds, thus incorrectly predicting substantial risk reductions from reductions in concentrations that do not affect health risks. We conclude that ignored estimation errors obscure the shapes of true C-R functions, including possible thresholds, possibly leading to unrealistic predictions of the changes in risk caused by changing exposures. Instead of estimating improvements in public health per unit reduction (e.g., per 10 µg/m 3 decrease) in average PM2.5 concentrations, it may be essential to consider how interventions change the distributions of exposure concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Lang (Jens); J.G. Verwer (Jan)

2007-01-01

textabstractThis paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based onthe adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lang, J.; Verwer, J.G.

2007-01-01

Abstract. This paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based on the adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

Improved children's motor learning of the basketball free shooting pattern by associating subjective error estimation and extrinsic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Leandro de Carvalho da; Pereira-Monfredini, Carla Ferro; Teixeira, Luis Augusto

2017-09-01

This study aimed at assessing the interaction between subjective error estimation and frequency of extrinsic feedback in the learning of the basketball free shooting pattern by children. 10- to 12-year olds were assigned to 1 of 4 groups combining subjective error estimation and relative frequency of extrinsic feedback (33% × 100%). Analysis of performance was based on quality of movement pattern. Analysis showed superior learning of the group combining error estimation and 100% feedback frequency, both groups receiving feedback on 33% of trials achieved intermediate results, and the group combining no requirement of error estimation and 100% feedback frequency had the poorest learning. Our results show the benefit of subjective error estimation in association with high frequency of extrinsic feedback in children's motor learning of a sport motor pattern.

New method of classifying human errors at nuclear power plants and the analysis results of applying this method to maintenance errors at domestic plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takagawa, Kenichi; Miyazaki, Takamasa; Gofuku, Akio; Iida, Hiroyasu

2007-01-01

Since many of the adverse events that have occurred in nuclear power plants in Japan and abroad have been related to maintenance or operation, it is necessary to plan preventive measures based on detailed analyses of human errors made by maintenance workers or operators. Therefore, before planning preventive measures, we developed a new method of analyzing human errors. Since each human error is an unsafe action caused by some misjudgement made by a person, we decided to classify them into six categories according to the stage in the judgment process in which the error was made. By further classifying each error into either an omission-type or commission-type, we produced 12 categories of errors. Then, we divided them into the two categories of basic error tendencies and individual error tendencies, and categorized background factors into four categories: imperfect planning; imperfect facilities or tools; imperfect environment; and imperfect instructions or communication. We thus defined the factors in each category to make it easy to identify factors that caused the error. Then using this method, we studied the characteristics of human errors that involved maintenance workers and planners since many maintenance errors have occurred. Among the human errors made by workers (worker errors) during the implementation stage, the following three types were prevalent with approximately 80%: commission-type 'projection errors', omission-type comprehension errors' and commission type 'action errors'. The most common among the individual factors of worker errors was 'repetition or habit' (schema), based on the assumption of a typical situation, and the half number of the 'repetition or habit' cases (schema) were not influenced by any background factors. The most common background factor that contributed to the individual factor was 'imperfect work environment', followed by 'insufficient knowledge'. Approximately 80% of the individual factors were 'repetition or habit' or

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry: analysis of pediatric fat estimate errors due to tissue hydration effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Testolin, C G; Gore, R; Rivkin, T; Horlick, M; Arbo, J; Wang, Z; Chiumello, G; Heymsfield, S B

2000-12-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) percent (%) fat estimates may be inaccurate in young children, who typically have high tissue hydration levels. This study was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of pediatric tissue hydration effects on DXA %fat estimates. Phase 1 was experimental and included three in vitro studies to establish the physical basis of DXA %fat-estimation models. Phase 2 extended phase 1 models and consisted of theoretical calculations to estimate the %fat errors emanating from previously reported pediatric hydration effects. Phase 1 experiments supported the two-compartment DXA soft tissue model and established that pixel ratio of low to high energy (R values) are a predictable function of tissue elemental content. In phase 2, modeling of reference body composition values from birth to age 120 mo revealed that %fat errors will arise if a "constant" adult lean soft tissue R value is applied to the pediatric population; the maximum %fat error, approximately 0.8%, would be present at birth. High tissue hydration, as observed in infants and young children, leads to errors in DXA %fat estimates. The magnitude of these errors based on theoretical calculations is small and may not be of clinical or research significance.

On the a priori estimation of collocation error covariance functions: a feasibility study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arabelos, D.N.; Forsberg, René; Tscherning, C.C.

2007-01-01

and the associated error covariance functions were conducted in the Arctic region north of 64 degrees latitude. The correlation between the known features of the data and the parameters variance and correlation length of the computed error covariance functions was estimated using multiple regression analysis...

Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of Force Estimation Errors Using Active Magnetic Bearings with Embedded Hall Sensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Voigt, Andreas Jauernik; Santos, Ilmar

2012-01-01

to ∼ 20% of the nominal air gap the force estimation error is found to be reduced by the linearized force equation as compared to the quadratic force equation, which is supported by experimental results. Additionally the FE model is employed in a comparative study of the force estimation error behavior...... of AMBs by embedding Hall sensors instead of mounting these directly on the pole surfaces, force estimation errors are investigated both numerically and experimentally. A linearized version of the conventionally applied quadratic correspondence between measured Hall voltage and applied AMB force...

Rigorous covariance propagation of geoid errors to geodetic MDT estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Pail, R.; Albertella, A.; Fecher, T.; Savcenko, R.

2012-04-01

The mean dynamic topography (MDT) is defined as the difference between the mean sea surface (MSS) derived from satellite altimetry, averaged over several years, and the static geoid. Assuming geostrophic conditions, from the MDT the ocean surface velocities as important component of global ocean circulation can be derived from it. Due to the availability of GOCE gravity field models, for the very first time MDT can now be derived solely from satellite observations (altimetry and gravity) down to spatial length-scales of 100 km and even below. Global gravity field models, parameterized in terms of spherical harmonic coefficients, are complemented by the full variance-covariance matrix (VCM). Therefore, for the geoid component a realistic statistical error estimate is available, while the error description of the altimetric component is still an open issue and is, if at all, attacked empirically. In this study we make the attempt to perform, based on the full gravity VCM, rigorous error propagation to derived geostrophic surface velocities, thus also considering all correlations. For the definition of the static geoid we use the third release of the time-wise GOCE model, as well as the satellite-only combination model GOCO03S. In detail, we will investigate the velocity errors resulting from the geoid component in dependence of the harmonic degree, and the impact of using/no using covariances on the MDT errors and its correlations. When deriving an MDT, it is spectrally filtered to a certain maximum degree, which is usually driven by the signal content of the geoid model, by applying isotropic or non-isotropic filters. Since this filtering is acting also on the geoid component, the consistent integration of this filter process into the covariance propagation shall be performed, and its impact shall be quantified. The study will be performed for MDT estimates in specific test areas of particular oceanographic interest.

Do Survey Data Estimate Earnings Inequality Correctly? Measurement Errors among Black and White Male Workers

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, ChangHwan; Tamborini, Christopher R.

2012-01-01

Few studies have considered how earnings inequality estimates may be affected by measurement error in self-reported earnings in surveys. Utilizing restricted-use data that links workers in the Survey of Income and Program Participation with their W-2 earnings records, we examine the effect of measurement error on estimates of racial earnings…

Robust estimation of partially linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts and measurement error.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Guoyou; Zhang, Jiajia; Zhu, Zhongyi; Fung, Wing

2016-12-20

Outliers, measurement error, and missing data are commonly seen in longitudinal data because of its data collection process. However, no method can address all three of these issues simultaneously. This paper focuses on the robust estimation of partially linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts and measurement error. A new robust estimating equation, simultaneously tackling outliers, measurement error, and missingness, is proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established under some regularity conditions. The proposed method is easy to implement in practice by utilizing the existing standard generalized estimating equations algorithms. The comprehensive simulation studies show the strength of the proposed method in dealing with longitudinal data with all three features. Finally, the proposed method is applied to data from the Lifestyle Education for Activity and Nutrition study and confirms the effectiveness of the intervention in producing weight loss at month 9. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dipole estimation errors due to not incorporating anisotropic conductivities in realistic head models for EEG source analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hallez, Hans; Staelens, Steven; Lemahieu, Ignace

2009-10-01

EEG source analysis is a valuable tool for brain functionality research and for diagnosing neurological disorders, such as epilepsy. It requires a geometrical representation of the human head or a head model, which is often modeled as an isotropic conductor. However, it is known that some brain tissues, such as the skull or white matter, have an anisotropic conductivity. Many studies reported that the anisotropic conductivities have an influence on the calculated electrode potentials. However, few studies have assessed the influence of anisotropic conductivities on the dipole estimations. In this study, we want to determine the dipole estimation errors due to not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull and/or brain tissues. Therefore, head models are constructed with the same geometry, but with an anisotropically conducting skull and/or brain tissue compartment. These head models are used in simulation studies where the dipole location and orientation error is calculated due to neglecting anisotropic conductivities of the skull and brain tissue. Results show that not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull yields a dipole location error between 2 and 25 mm, with an average of 10 mm. When the anisotropic conductivities of the brain tissues are neglected, the dipole location error ranges between 0 and 5 mm. In this case, the average dipole location error was 2.3 mm. In all simulations, the dipole orientation error was smaller than 10°. We can conclude that the anisotropic conductivities of the skull have to be incorporated to improve the accuracy of EEG source analysis. The results of the simulation, as presented here, also suggest that incorporation of the anisotropic conductivities of brain tissues is not necessary. However, more studies are needed to confirm these suggestions.

Dipole estimation errors due to not incorporating anisotropic conductivities in realistic head models for EEG source analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallez, Hans; Staelens, Steven; Lemahieu, Ignace

2009-01-01

EEG source analysis is a valuable tool for brain functionality research and for diagnosing neurological disorders, such as epilepsy. It requires a geometrical representation of the human head or a head model, which is often modeled as an isotropic conductor. However, it is known that some brain tissues, such as the skull or white matter, have an anisotropic conductivity. Many studies reported that the anisotropic conductivities have an influence on the calculated electrode potentials. However, few studies have assessed the influence of anisotropic conductivities on the dipole estimations. In this study, we want to determine the dipole estimation errors due to not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull and/or brain tissues. Therefore, head models are constructed with the same geometry, but with an anisotropically conducting skull and/or brain tissue compartment. These head models are used in simulation studies where the dipole location and orientation error is calculated due to neglecting anisotropic conductivities of the skull and brain tissue. Results show that not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull yields a dipole location error between 2 and 25 mm, with an average of 10 mm. When the anisotropic conductivities of the brain tissues are neglected, the dipole location error ranges between 0 and 5 mm. In this case, the average dipole location error was 2.3 mm. In all simulations, the dipole orientation error was smaller than 10 deg. We can conclude that the anisotropic conductivities of the skull have to be incorporated to improve the accuracy of EEG source analysis. The results of the simulation, as presented here, also suggest that incorporation of the anisotropic conductivities of brain tissues is not necessary. However, more studies are needed to confirm these suggestions.

Analysis of measured data of human body based on error correcting frequency

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Aiyan; Peipei, Gao; Shang, Xiaomei

2014-04-01

Anthropometry is to measure all parts of human body surface, and the measured data is the basis of analysis and study of the human body, establishment and modification of garment size and formulation and implementation of online clothing store. In this paper, several groups of the measured data are gained, and analysis of data error is gotten by analyzing the error frequency and using analysis of variance method in mathematical statistics method. Determination of the measured data accuracy and the difficulty of measured parts of human body, further studies of the causes of data errors, and summarization of the key points to minimize errors possibly are also mentioned in the paper. This paper analyses the measured data based on error frequency, and in a way , it provides certain reference elements to promote the garment industry development.

Human error as a source of disturbances in Swedish nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sokolowski, E.

1985-01-01

Events involving human errors at the Swedish nuclear power plants are registered and periodically analyzed. The philosophy behind the scheme for data collection and analysis is discussed. Human errors cause about 10% of the disturbances registered. Only a small part of these errors are committed by operators in the control room. These and other findings differ from those in other countries. Possible reasons are put forward

Quantification of human error and common-mode failures in man-machine systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lisboa, J.J.

1988-01-01

Quantification of human performance, particularly the determination of human error, is essential for realistic assessment of overall system performance of man-machine systems. This paper presents an analysis of human errors in nuclear power plant systems when measured against common-mode failures (CMF). Human errors evaluated are improper testing, inadequate maintenance strategy, and miscalibration. The methodology presented in the paper represents a positive contribution to power plant systems availability by identifying sources of common-mode failure when operational functions are involved. It is also applicable to other complex systems such as chemical plants, aircraft and motor industries; in fact, any large man-created, man-machine system could be included

FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE): Perspective on Taxonomy Development to Support Error Reporting and Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lon N. Haney; David I. Gertman

2003-04-01

Beginning in the 1980s a primary focus of human reliability analysis was estimation of human error probabilities. However, detailed qualitative modeling with comprehensive representation of contextual variables often was lacking. This was likely due to the lack of comprehensive error and performance shaping factor taxonomies, and the limited data available on observed error rates and their relationship to specific contextual variables. In the mid 90s Boeing, America West Airlines, NASA Ames Research Center and INEEL partnered in a NASA sponsored Advanced Concepts grant to: assess the state of the art in human error analysis, identify future needs for human error analysis, and develop an approach addressing these needs. Identified needs included the need for a method to identify and prioritize task and contextual characteristics affecting human reliability. Other needs identified included developing comprehensive taxonomies to support detailed qualitative modeling and to structure meaningful data collection efforts across domains. A result was the development of the FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE) with a taxonomy for airline maintenance tasks. The assignment of performance shaping factors to generic errors by experts proved to be valuable to qualitative modeling. Performance shaping factors and error types from such detailed approaches can be used to structure error reporting schemes. In a recent NASA Advanced Human Support Technology grant FRANCIE was refined, and two new taxonomies for use on space missions were developed. The development, sharing, and use of error taxonomies, and the refinement of approaches for increased fidelity of qualitative modeling is offered as a means to help direct useful data collection strategies.

Error estimates in horocycle averages asymptotics: challenges from string theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cardella, M.A.

2010-01-01

For modular functions of rapid decay, a classical result connects the error estimate in their long horocycle average asymptotic to the Riemann hypothesis. We study similar asymptotics, for modular functions with not that mild growing conditions, such as of polynomial growth and of exponential growth

Computational Error Estimate for the Power Series Solution of Odes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper compares the error estimation of power series solution with recursive Tau method for solving ordinary differential equations. From the computational viewpoint, the power series using zeros of Chebyshevpolunomial is effective, accurate and easy to use. Keywords: Lanczos Tau method, Chebyshev polynomial, ...

A method for analysing incidents due to human errors on nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffon, M.

1980-01-01

This paper deals with the development of a methodology adapted to a detailed analysis of incidents considered to be due to human errors. An identification of human errors and a search for their eventual multiple causes is then needed. They are categorized in eight classes: education and training of personnel, installation design, work organization, time and work duration, physical environment, social environment, history of the plant and performance of the operator. The method is illustrated by the analysis of a handling incident generated by multiple human errors. (author)

IAS 8, Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors – A Closer Look

OpenAIRE

Muthupandian, K S

2008-01-01

The International Accounting Standards Board issued the revised version of the International Accounting Standard 8, Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors. The objective of IAS 8 is to prescribe the criteria for selecting, applying and changing accounting policies, together with the accounting treatment and disclosure of changes in accounting policies, changes in accounting estimates and the corrections of errors. This article presents a closer look of the standard (o...

Error due to unresolved scales in estimation problems for atmospheric data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Tijana

The error arising due to unresolved scales in data assimilation procedures is examined. The problem of estimating the projection of the state of a passive scalar undergoing advection at a sequence of times is considered. The projection belongs to a finite- dimensional function space and is defined on the continuum. Using the continuum projection of the state of a passive scalar, a mathematical definition is obtained for the error arising due to the presence, in the continuum system, of scales unresolved by the discrete dynamical model. This error affects the estimation procedure through point observations that include the unresolved scales. In this work, two approximate methods for taking into account the error due to unresolved scales and the resulting correlations are developed and employed in the estimation procedure. The resulting formulas resemble the Schmidt-Kalman filter and the usual discrete Kalman filter, respectively. For this reason, the newly developed filters are called the Schmidt-Kalman filter and the traditional filter. In order to test the assimilation methods, a two- dimensional advection model with nonstationary spectrum was developed for passive scalar transport in the atmosphere. An analytical solution on the sphere was found depicting the model dynamics evolution. Using this analytical solution the model error is avoided, and the error due to unresolved scales is the only error left in the estimation problem. It is demonstrated that the traditional and the Schmidt- Kalman filter work well provided the exact covariance function of the unresolved scales is known. However, this requirement is not satisfied in practice, and the covariance function must be modeled. The Schmidt-Kalman filter cannot be computed in practice without further approximations. Therefore, the traditional filter is better suited for practical use. Also, the traditional filter does not require modeling of the full covariance function of the unresolved scales, but only

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Allen, B. Danette

2009-01-01

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

The Human Bathtub: Safety and Risk Predictions Including the Dynamic Probability of Operator Errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, Romney B.; Saull, John W.

2006-01-01

Reactor safety and risk are dominated by the potential and major contribution for human error in the design, operation, control, management, regulation and maintenance of the plant, and hence to all accidents. Given the possibility of accidents and errors, now we need to determine the outcome (error) probability, or the chance of failure. Conventionally, reliability engineering is associated with the failure rate of components, or systems, or mechanisms, not of human beings in and interacting with a technological system. The probability of failure requires a prior knowledge of the total number of outcomes, which for any predictive purposes we do not know or have. Analysis of failure rates due to human error and the rate of learning allow a new determination of the dynamic human error rate in technological systems, consistent with and derived from the available world data. The basis for the analysis is the 'learning hypothesis' that humans learn from experience, and consequently the accumulated experience defines the failure rate. A new 'best' equation has been derived for the human error, outcome or failure rate, which allows for calculation and prediction of the probability of human error. We also provide comparisons to the empirical Weibull parameter fitting used in and by conventional reliability engineering and probabilistic safety analysis methods. These new analyses show that arbitrary Weibull fitting parameters and typical empirical hazard function techniques cannot be used to predict the dynamics of human errors and outcomes in the presence of learning. Comparisons of these new insights show agreement with human error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator actions and transient control behavior observed in transients in both plants and simulators. The results demonstrate that the human error probability (HEP) is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the learning hypothesis and the minimum

Assessing Measurement Error in Medicare Coverage

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Assessing Measurement Error in Medicare Coverage From the National Health Interview Survey Using linked administrative data, to validate Medicare coverage estimates...

Research on Human-Error Factors of Civil Aircraft Pilots Based On Grey Relational Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Yundong

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In consideration of the situation that civil aviation accidents involve many human-error factors and show the features of typical grey systems, an index system of civil aviation accident human-error factors is built using human factor analysis and classification system model. With the data of accidents happened worldwide between 2008 and 2011, the correlation between human-error factors can be analyzed quantitatively using the method of grey relational analysis. Research results show that the order of main factors affecting pilot human-error factors is preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe supervision, organization and unsafe acts. The factor related most closely with second-level indexes and pilot human-error factors is the physical/mental limitations of pilots, followed by supervisory violations. The relevancy between the first-level indexes and the corresponding second-level indexes and the relevancy between second-level indexes can also be analyzed quantitatively.

Solution-verified reliability analysis and design of bistable MEMS using error estimation and adaptivity.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eldred, Michael Scott; Subia, Samuel Ramirez; Neckels, David; Hopkins, Matthew Morgan; Notz, Patrick K.; Adams, Brian M.; Carnes, Brian; Wittwer, Jonathan W.; Bichon, Barron J.; Copps, Kevin D.

2006-10-01

This report documents the results for an FY06 ASC Algorithms Level 2 milestone combining error estimation and adaptivity, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic design capabilities applied to the analysis and design of bistable MEMS. Through the use of error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement, solution verification can be performed in an automated and parameter-adaptive manner. The resulting uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design studies are shown to be more accurate, efficient, reliable, and convenient.

Latent human error analysis and efficient improvement strategies by fuzzy TOPSIS in aviation maintenance tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Ming-Chuan; Hsieh, Min-Chih

2016-05-01

The purposes of this study were to develop a latent human error analysis process, to explore the factors of latent human error in aviation maintenance tasks, and to provide an efficient improvement strategy for addressing those errors. First, we used HFACS and RCA to define the error factors related to aviation maintenance tasks. Fuzzy TOPSIS with four criteria was applied to evaluate the error factors. Results show that 1) adverse physiological states, 2) physical/mental limitations, and 3) coordination, communication, and planning are the factors related to airline maintenance tasks that could be addressed easily and efficiently. This research establishes a new analytic process for investigating latent human error and provides a strategy for analyzing human error using fuzzy TOPSIS. Our analysis process complements shortages in existing methodologies by incorporating improvement efficiency, and it enhances the depth and broadness of human error analysis methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Analysis of human error and organizational deficiency in events considering risk significance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Yoonik; Kim, Say Hyung; Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jung, Won Dea

2004-01-01

In this study, we analyzed human and organizational deficiencies in the trip events of Korean nuclear power plants. K-HPES items were used in human error analysis, and the organizational factors by Jacobs and Haber were used for organizational deficiency analysis. We proposed the use of CCDP as a risk measure to consider risk information in prioritizing K-HPES items and organizational factors. Until now, the risk significance of events has not been considered in human error and organizational deficiency analysis. Considering the risk significance of events in the process of analysis is necessary for effective enhancement of nuclear power plant safety by focusing on causes of human error and organizational deficiencies that are associated with significant risk

Normalized Minimum Error Entropy Algorithm with Recursive Power Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Namyong Kim

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The minimum error entropy (MEE algorithm is known to be superior in signal processing applications under impulsive noise. In this paper, based on the analysis of behavior of the optimum weight and the properties of robustness against impulsive noise, a normalized version of the MEE algorithm is proposed. The step size of the MEE algorithm is normalized with the power of input entropy that is estimated recursively for reducing its computational complexity. The proposed algorithm yields lower minimum MSE (mean squared error and faster convergence speed simultaneously than the original MEE algorithm does in the equalization simulation. On the condition of the same convergence speed, its performance enhancement in steady state MSE is above 3 dB.

The Countermeasures against the Human Errors in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Hee; Kwon, Ki Chun; Lee, Jung Woon; Lee, Hyun; Jang, Tong Il

2009-10-01

Due to human error, the failure of nuclear power facilities essential for the prevention of accidents and related research in ergonomics and human factors, including the long term, comprehensive measures are considered technology is urgently required. Past nuclear facilities for the hardware in terms of continuing interest over subsequent definite improvement even have brought, now a nuclear facility to engage in people-related human factors for attention by nuclear facilities, ensuring the safety of its economic and industrial aspects. The point of the improvement is urgently required. The purpose of this research, including nuclear power plants in various nuclear facilities to minimize the possibility of human error by ensuring the safety for human engineering aspects will be implemented in the medium and long term preventive measures is to establish comprehensive

The Countermeasures against the Human Errors in Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Yong Hee; Kwon, Ki Chun; Lee, Jung Woon; Lee, Hyun; Jang, Tong Il

2009-10-15

Due to human error, the failure of nuclear power facilities essential for the prevention of accidents and related research in ergonomics and human factors, including the long term, comprehensive measures are considered technology is urgently required. Past nuclear facilities for the hardware in terms of continuing interest over subsequent definite improvement even have brought, now a nuclear facility to engage in people-related human factors for attention by nuclear facilities, ensuring the safety of its economic and industrial aspects. The point of the improvement is urgently required. The purpose of this research, including nuclear power plants in various nuclear facilities to minimize the possibility of human error by ensuring the safety for human engineering aspects will be implemented in the medium and long term preventive measures is to establish comprehensive.

Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

2015-01-01

Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

Investigations on human error hazards in recent unintended trip events of Korean nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sa Kil; Jang, Tong Il; Lee, Yong Hee; Shin, Kwang Hyeon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2012-10-15

According to the Operational Performance Information System (OPIS) which has been operated to improve the public understanding by the KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), unintended trip events by mainly human errors counted up to 38 cases (18.7%) from 2000 to 2011. Although the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) industry in Korea has been making efforts to reduce the human errors which have largely contributed to trip events, the human error rate might keep increasing. Interestingly, digital based I and C systems is the one of the reduction factors of unintended reactor trips. Human errors, however, have occurred due to the digital based I and C systems because those systems require new or changed behaviors to the NPP operators. Therefore, it is necessary that the investigations of human errors consider a new methodology to find not only tangible behavior but also intangible behavior such as organizational behaviors. In this study we investigated human errors to find latent factors such as decisions and conditions in the all of the unintended reactor trip events during last dozen years. To find them, we applied the HFACS (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) which is a commonly utilized tool for investigating human contributions to aviation accidents under a widespread evaluation scheme. The objective of this study is to find latent factors behind of human errors in nuclear reactor trip events. Therefore, a method to investigate unintended trip events by human errors and the results will be discussed in more detail.

Investigations on human error hazards in recent unintended trip events of Korean nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sa Kil; Jang, Tong Il; Lee, Yong Hee; Shin, Kwang Hyeon

2012-01-01

According to the Operational Performance Information System (OPIS) which has been operated to improve the public understanding by the KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), unintended trip events by mainly human errors counted up to 38 cases (18.7%) from 2000 to 2011. Although the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) industry in Korea has been making efforts to reduce the human errors which have largely contributed to trip events, the human error rate might keep increasing. Interestingly, digital based I and C systems is the one of the reduction factors of unintended reactor trips. Human errors, however, have occurred due to the digital based I and C systems because those systems require new or changed behaviors to the NPP operators. Therefore, it is necessary that the investigations of human errors consider a new methodology to find not only tangible behavior but also intangible behavior such as organizational behaviors. In this study we investigated human errors to find latent factors such as decisions and conditions in the all of the unintended reactor trip events during last dozen years. To find them, we applied the HFACS (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) which is a commonly utilized tool for investigating human contributions to aviation accidents under a widespread evaluation scheme. The objective of this study is to find latent factors behind of human errors in nuclear reactor trip events. Therefore, a method to investigate unintended trip events by human errors and the results will be discussed in more detail

Fault tree model of human error based on error-forcing contexts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung Cheol; Ha, Jae Joo

2004-01-01

In the safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants, the safety-feature actuation is fully automated. In emergency case, the human operator could also play the role of a backup for automated systems. That is, the failure of safety-feature-actuation signal generation implies the concurrent failure of automated systems and that of manual actuation. The human operator's manual actuation failure is largely affected by error-forcing contexts (EFC). The failures of sensors and automated systems are most important ones. The sensors, the automated actuation system and the human operators are correlated in a complex manner and hard to develop a proper model. In this paper, we will explain the condition-based human reliability assessment (CBHRA) method in order to treat these complicated conditions in a practical way. In this study, we apply the CBHRA method to the manual actuation of safety features such as reactor trip and safety injection in Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants

The psychological background about human error and safety in NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Li

1992-01-01

A human error is one of the factors which cause an accident in NPP. The in-situ psychological background plays an important role in inducing it. The author analyzes the structure of one's psychological background when one is at work, and gives a few examples of typical psychological background resulting in human errors. Finally it points out that the fundamental way to eliminate the unfavourable psychological background of safety production is to establish the safety culture in NPP along with its characteristics

On the BER and capacity analysis of MIMO MRC systems with channel estimation error

KAUST Repository

Yang, Liang; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2011-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the effect of channel estimation error on the capacity and bit-error rate (BER) of a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit maximal ratio transmission (MRT) and receive maximal ratio combining (MRC) systems over

Regularization and error estimates for nonhomogeneous backward heat problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duc Trong Dang

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, we study the inverse time problem for the non-homogeneous heat equation which is a severely ill-posed problem. We regularize this problem using the quasi-reversibility method and then obtain error estimates on the approximate solutions. Solutions are calculated by the contraction principle and shown in numerical experiments. We obtain also rates of convergence to the exact solution.

Estimating Classification Errors under Edit Restrictions in Composite Survey-Register Data Using Multiple Imputation Latent Class Modelling (MILC)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boeschoten, Laura; Oberski, Daniel; De Waal, Ton

2017-01-01

Both registers and surveys can contain classification errors. These errors can be estimated by making use of a composite data set. We propose a new method based on latent class modelling to estimate the number of classification errors across several sources while taking into account impossible

Review of human error analysis methodologies and case study for accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Won Dae; Kim, Jae Whan; Lee, Yong Hee; Ha, Jae Joo

1998-03-01

In this research, we tried to establish the requirements for the development of a new human error analysis method. To achieve this goal, we performed a case study as following steps; 1. review of the existing HEA methods 2. selection of those methods which are considered to be appropriate for the analysis of operator's tasks in NPPs 3. choice of tasks for the application, selected for the case study: HRMS (Human reliability management system), PHECA (Potential Human Error Cause Analysis), CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method). And, as the tasks for the application, 'bleed and feed operation' and 'decision-making for the reactor cavity flooding' tasks are chosen. We measured the applicability of the selected methods to the NPP tasks, and evaluated the advantages and disadvantages between each method. The three methods are turned out to be applicable for the prediction of human error. We concluded that both of CREAM and HRMS are equipped with enough applicability for the NPP tasks, however, compared two methods. CREAM is thought to be more appropriate than HRMS from the viewpoint of overall requirements. The requirements for the new HEA method obtained from the study can be summarized as follows; firstly, it should deal with cognitive error analysis, secondly, it should have adequate classification system for the NPP tasks, thirdly, the description on the error causes and error mechanisms should be explicit, fourthly, it should maintain the consistency of the result by minimizing the ambiguity in each step of analysis procedure, fifty, it should be done with acceptable human resources. (author). 25 refs., 30 tabs., 4 figs

Development and evaluation of a computer-aided system for analyzing human error in railway operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong San; Baek, Dong Hyun; Yoon, Wan Chul

2010-01-01

As human error has been recognized as one of the major contributors to accidents in safety-critical systems, there has been a strong need for techniques that can analyze human error effectively. Although many techniques have been developed so far, much room for improvement remains. As human error analysis is a cognitively demanding and time-consuming task, it is particularly necessary to develop a computerized system supporting this task. This paper presents a computer-aided system for analyzing human error in railway operations, called Computer-Aided System for Human Error Analysis and Reduction (CAS-HEAR). It supports analysts to find multiple levels of error causes and their causal relations by using predefined links between contextual factors and causal factors as well as links between causal factors. In addition, it is based on a complete accident model; hence, it helps analysts to conduct a thorough analysis without missing any important part of human error analysis. A prototype of CAS-HEAR was evaluated by nine field investigators from six railway organizations in Korea. Its overall usefulness in human error analysis was confirmed, although development of its simplified version and some modification of the contextual factors and causal factors are required in order to ensure its practical use.

Error analysis and new dual-cosine window for estimating the sensor frequency response function from the step response data

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shuang-Long; Liang, Li-Ping; Liu, Hou-De; Xu, Ke-Jun

2018-03-01

Aiming at reducing the estimation error of the sensor frequency response function (FRF) estimated by the commonly used window-based spectral estimation method, the error models of interpolation and transient errors are derived in the form of non-parameter models. Accordingly, window effects on the errors are analyzed and reveal that the commonly used hanning window leads to smaller interpolation error which can also be significantly eliminated by the cubic spline interpolation method when estimating the FRF from the step response data, and window with smaller front-end value can restrain more transient error. Thus, a new dual-cosine window with its non-zero discrete Fourier transform bins at -3, -1, 0, 1, and 3 is constructed for FRF estimation. Compared with the hanning window, the new dual-cosine window has the equivalent interpolation error suppression capability and better transient error suppression capability when estimating the FRF from the step response; specifically, it reduces the asymptotic property of the transient error from O(N-2) of the hanning window method to O(N-4) while only increases the uncertainty slightly (about 0.4 dB). Then, one direction of a wind tunnel strain gauge balance which is a high order, small damping, and non-minimum phase system is employed as the example for verifying the new dual-cosine window-based spectral estimation method. The model simulation result shows that the new dual-cosine window method is better than the hanning window method for FRF estimation, and compared with the Gans method and LPM method, it has the advantages of simple computation, less time consumption, and short data requirement; the actual data calculation result of the balance FRF is consistent to the simulation result. Thus, the new dual-cosine window is effective and practical for FRF estimation.

Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

2010-01-01

The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

Sensorless SPMSM Position Estimation Using Position Estimation Error Suppression Control and EKF in Wide Speed Range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanshan Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The control of a high performance alternative current (AC motor drive under sensorless operation needs the accurate estimation of rotor position. In this paper, one method of accurately estimating rotor position by using both motor complex number model based position estimation and position estimation error suppression proportion integral (PI controller is proposed for the sensorless control of the surface permanent magnet synchronous motor (SPMSM. In order to guarantee the accuracy of rotor position estimation in the flux-weakening region, one scheme of identifying the permanent magnet flux of SPMSM by extended Kalman filter (EKF is also proposed, which formed the effective combination method to realize the sensorless control of SPMSM with high accuracy. The simulation results demonstrated the validity and feasibility of the proposed position/speed estimation system.

State estimation bias induced by optimization under uncertainty and error cost asymmetry is likely reflected in perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimansky, Y P

2011-05-01

It is well known from numerous studies that perception can be significantly affected by intended action in many everyday situations, indicating that perception and related decision-making is not a simple, one-way sequence, but a complex iterative cognitive process. However, the underlying functional mechanisms are yet unclear. Based on an optimality approach, a quantitative computational model of one such mechanism has been developed in this study. It is assumed in the model that significant uncertainty about task-related parameters of the environment results in parameter estimation errors and an optimal control system should minimize the cost of such errors in terms of the optimality criterion. It is demonstrated that, if the cost of a parameter estimation error is significantly asymmetrical with respect to error direction, the tendency to minimize error cost creates a systematic deviation of the optimal parameter estimate from its maximum likelihood value. Consequently, optimization of parameter estimate and optimization of control action cannot be performed separately from each other under parameter uncertainty combined with asymmetry of estimation error cost, thus making the certainty equivalence principle non-applicable under those conditions. A hypothesis that not only the action, but also perception itself is biased by the above deviation of parameter estimate is supported by ample experimental evidence. The results provide important insights into the cognitive mechanisms of interaction between sensory perception and planning an action under realistic conditions. Implications for understanding related functional mechanisms of optimal control in the CNS are discussed.

Calculating method on human error probabilities considering influence of management and organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Jia; Huang Xiangrui; Shen Zupei

1996-01-01

This paper is concerned with how management and organizational influences can be factored into quantifying human error probabilities on risk assessments, using a three-level Influence Diagram (ID) which is originally only as a tool for construction and representation of models of decision-making trees or event trees. An analytical model of human errors causation has been set up with three influence levels, introducing a method for quantification assessments (of the ID), which can be applied into quantifying probabilities) of human errors on risk assessments, especially into the quantification of complex event trees (system) as engineering decision-making analysis. A numerical case study is provided to illustrate the approach

Human medial frontal cortex activity predicts learning from errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hester, Robert; Barre, Natalie; Murphy, Kevin; Silk, Tim J; Mattingley, Jason B

2008-08-01

Learning from errors is a critical feature of human cognition. It underlies our ability to adapt to changing environmental demands and to tune behavior for optimal performance. The posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) has been implicated in the evaluation of errors to control behavior, although it has not previously been shown that activity in this region predicts learning from errors. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined activity in the pMFC during an associative learning task in which participants had to recall the spatial locations of 2-digit targets and were provided with immediate feedback regarding accuracy. Activity within the pMFC was significantly greater for errors that were subsequently corrected than for errors that were repeated. Moreover, pMFC activity during recall errors predicted future responses (correct vs. incorrect), despite a sizeable interval (on average 70 s) between an error and the next presentation of the same recall probe. Activity within the hippocampus also predicted future performance and correlated with error-feedback-related pMFC activity. A relationship between performance expectations and pMFC activity, in the absence of differing reinforcement value for errors, is consistent with the idea that error-related pMFC activity reflects the extent to which an outcome is "worse than expected."

Trial application of a technique for human error analysis (ATHEANA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, D.C.; Cooper, S.E.; Parry, G.W.

1996-01-01

The new method for HRA, ATHEANA, has been developed based on a study of the operating history of serious accidents and an understanding of the reasons why people make errors. Previous publications associated with the project have dealt with the theoretical framework under which errors occur and the retrospective analysis of operational events. This is the first attempt to use ATHEANA in a prospective way, to select and evaluate human errors within the PSA context

Error estimation in the neural network solution of ordinary differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Filici, Cristian

2010-06-01

In this article a method of error estimation for the neural approximation of the solution of an Ordinary Differential Equation is presented. Some examples of the application of the method support the theory presented. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New estimates for human lung dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Christine; Sidavasan, Sivalal; Kramer, Gary

2008-01-01

Full text: The currently used lung dimensions in dosimetry were originally estimated in the 1940s from Army recruits. This study provides new estimates of lung dimensions based on images acquired from a sample from the general population (varying age and sex). Building accurate models, called phantoms, of the human lung requires that the spatial dimensions (length, width, and depth) be quantified, in addition to volume. Errors in dose estimates may result from improperly sized lungs as the counting efficiency of externally mounted detectors (e.g., in a lung counter) is dependent on the position of internally deposited radioactive material (i.e., the size of the lung). This study investigates the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Lung phantoms have previously been made in one of two sizes. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Torso Phantom (LLNL) has deep, short lungs whose dimensions do not comply well with the data published in Report 23 (Reference Man) issued by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The Japanese Atomic Energy Research Institute Torso Phantom(JAERI), has longer, shallower lungs that also deviate from the ICRP values. However, careful examination of the ICRP recommended values shows that they are soft. In fact, they have been dropped from the ICRP's Report 89 which updates Report 23. Literature surveys have revealed a wealth of information on lung volume, but very little data on the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Better lung phantoms need to be constructed to more accurately represent a person so that dose estimates may be quantified more accurately in view of the new, lower, dose limits for occupationally exposed workers and the general public. Retrospective chest images of 60 patients who underwent imaging of the chest- lungs as part of their healthy persons occupational screening for lung disease were chosen. The chosen normal lung images represent the general population). Ages, gender and weight of the

Human error and the problem of causality in analysis of accidents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1990-01-01

, designers or managers have played a major role. There are, however, several basic problems in analysis of accidents and identification of human error. This paper addresses the nature of causal explanations and the ambiguity of the rules applied for identification of the events to include in analysis......Present technology is characterized by complexity, rapid change and growing size of technical systems. This has caused increasing concern with the human involvement in system safety. Analyses of the major accidents during recent decades have concluded that human errors on part of operators...

Computable error estimates of a finite difference scheme for option pricing in exponential Lévy models

KAUST Repository

Kiessling, Jonas

2014-05-06

Option prices in exponential Lévy models solve certain partial integro-differential equations. This work focuses on developing novel, computable error approximations for a finite difference scheme that is suitable for solving such PIDEs. The scheme was introduced in (Cont and Voltchkova, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 43(4):1596-1626, 2005). The main results of this work are new estimates of the dominating error terms, namely the time and space discretisation errors. In addition, the leading order terms of the error estimates are determined in a form that is more amenable to computations. The payoff is only assumed to satisfy an exponential growth condition, it is not assumed to be Lipschitz continuous as in previous works. If the underlying Lévy process has infinite jump activity, then the jumps smaller than some (Formula presented.) are approximated by diffusion. The resulting diffusion approximation error is also estimated, with leading order term in computable form, as well as the dependence of the time and space discretisation errors on this approximation. Consequently, it is possible to determine how to jointly choose the space and time grid sizes and the cut off parameter (Formula presented.). © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

An experimental approach to validating a theory of human error in complex systems

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, N. M.; Rouse, W. B.

1985-01-01

The problem of 'human error' is pervasive in engineering systems in which the human is involved. In contrast to the common engineering approach of dealing with error probabilistically, the present research seeks to alleviate problems associated with error by gaining a greater understanding of causes and contributing factors from a human information processing perspective. The general approach involves identifying conditions which are hypothesized to contribute to errors, and experimentally creating the conditions in order to verify the hypotheses. The conceptual framework which serves as the basis for this research is discussed briefly, followed by a description of upcoming research. Finally, the potential relevance of this research to design, training, and aiding issues is discussed.

An estimate of the doubling dose of ionizing radiation for humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neel, J.V.

1990-01-01

All accumulated data on the children of Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors have been analyzed employing the revised procedures for estimating gonadal radiation exposures that became effective in 1986. The basic statistical procedure employed has been to obtain a linear regression of indicator on the combined gonadal exposures of the parents. There is no statistically significant regression of indicator on dose for any of the indicators; however, it is accepted that some mutations were produced in the survivors of the bombings. The implications of the data for the genetic doubling dose of radiation for humans have been explored. The appropriate dose rate factor to be applied in extrapolating to the effect of chronic radiation is 2. This leads to a doubling dose estimate for the chronic irradiation of humans of between 3.4 and 4.5 Sv. The error is large but indeterminate, but the estimate is based on conservative assumptions. (3 tabs.)

Human error mode identification for NPP main control room operations using soft controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jaewhan; Jang, Seung-Cheol

2011-01-01

The operation environment of main control rooms (MCRs) in modern nuclear power plants (NPPs) has considerably changed over the years. Advanced MCRs, which have been designed by adapting digital and computer technologies, have simpler interfaces using large display panels, computerized displays, soft controls, computerized procedure systems, and so on. The actions for the NPP operations are performed using soft controls in advanced MCRs. Soft controls have different features from conventional controls. Operators need to navigate the screens to find indicators and controls and manipulate controls using a mouse, touch screens, and so on. Due to these different interfaces, different human errors should be considered in the human reliability analysis (HRA) for advanced MCRs. In this work, human errors that could occur during operation executions using soft controls were analyzed. This work classified the human errors in soft controls into six types, and the reasons that affect the occurrence of the human errors were also analyzed. (author)

Vector velocity volume flow estimation: Sources of error and corrections applied for arteriovenous fistulas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jonas; Olesen, Jacob Bjerring; Stuart, Matthias Bo

2016-01-01

radius. The error sources were also studied in vivo under realistic clinical conditions, and the theoretical results were applied for correcting the volume flow errors. Twenty dialysis patients with arteriovenous fistulas were scanned to obtain vector flow maps of fistulas. When fitting an ellipsis......A method for vector velocity volume flow estimation is presented, along with an investigation of its sources of error and correction of actual volume flow measurements. Volume flow errors are quantified theoretically by numerical modeling, through flow phantom measurements, and studied in vivo...

Estimation of heading gyrocompass error using a GPS 3DF system: Impact on ADCP measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simón Ruiz

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Traditionally the horizontal orientation in a ship (heading has been obtained from a gyrocompass. This instrument is still used on research vessels but has an estimated error of about 2-3 degrees, inducing a systematic error in the cross-track velocity measured by an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP. The three-dimensional positioning system (GPS 3DF provides an independent heading measurement with accuracy better than 0.1 degree. The Spanish research vessel BIO Hespérides has been operating with this new system since 1996. For the first time on this vessel, the data from this new instrument are used to estimate gyrocompass error. The methodology we use follows the scheme developed by Griffiths (1994, which compares data from the gyrocompass and the GPS system in order to obtain an interpolated error function. In the present work we apply this methodology on mesoscale surveys performed during the observational phase of the OMEGA project, in the Alboran Sea. The heading-dependent gyrocompass error dominated. Errors in gyrocompass heading of 1.4-3.4 degrees have been found, which give a maximum error in measured cross-track ADCP velocity of 24 cm s-1.

Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

2015-04-01

Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere

An estimate and evaluation of design error effects on nuclear power plant design adequacy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevenson, J.D.

1984-01-01

An area of considerable concern in evaluating Design Control Quality Assurance procedures applied to design and analysis of nuclear power plant is the level of design error expected or encountered. There is very little published data 1 on the level of error typically found in nuclear power plant design calculations and even less on the impact such errors would be expected to have on overall design adequacy of the plant. This paper is concerned with design error associated with civil and mechanical structural design and analysis found in calculations which form part of the Design or Stress reports. These reports are meant to document the design basis and adequacy of the plant. The estimates contained in this paper are based on the personal experiences of the author. In Table 1 is a partial listing of the design docummentation review performed by the author on which the observations contained in this paper are based. In the preparation of any design calculations, it is a utopian dream to presume such calculations can be made error free. The intent of this paper is to define error levels which might be expected in a competent engineering organizations employing currently technically qualified engineers and accepted methods of Design Control. In addition, the effects of these errors on the probability of failure to meet applicable design code requirements also are estimated

Errors in the estimation method for the rejection of vibrations in adaptive optics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kania, Dariusz

2017-06-01

In recent years the problem of the mechanical vibrations impact in adaptive optics (AO) systems has been renewed. These signals are damped sinusoidal signals and have deleterious effect on the system. One of software solutions to reject the vibrations is an adaptive method called AVC (Adaptive Vibration Cancellation) where the procedure has three steps: estimation of perturbation parameters, estimation of the frequency response of the plant, update the reference signal to reject/minimalize the vibration. In the first step a very important problem is the estimation method. A very accurate and fast (below 10 ms) estimation method of these three parameters has been presented in several publications in recent years. The method is based on using the spectrum interpolation and MSD time windows and it can be used to estimate multifrequency signals. In this paper the estimation method is used in the AVC method to increase the system performance. There are several parameters that affect the accuracy of obtained results, e.g. CiR - number of signal periods in a measurement window, N - number of samples in the FFT procedure, H - time window order, SNR, b - number of ADC bits, γ - damping ratio of the tested signal. Systematic errors increase when N, CiR, H decrease and when γ increases. The value for systematic error is approximately 10^-10 Hz/Hz for N = 2048 and CiR = 0.1. This paper presents equations that can used to estimate maximum systematic errors for given values of H, CiR and N before the start of the estimation process.

A framework to assess diagnosis error probabilities in the advanced MCR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Inseok; Park, Jinkyun [Korea Atomic Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO)’s operating experience database revealed that about 48% of the total events in world NPPs for 2 years (2010-2011) happened due to human errors. The purposes of human reliability analysis (HRA) method are to evaluate the potential for, and mechanism of, human errors that may affect plant safety. Accordingly, various HRA methods have been developed such as technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), simplified plant analysis risk human reliability assessment (SPAR-H), cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. Many researchers have asserted that procedure, alarm, and display are critical factors to affect operators’ generic activities, especially for diagnosis activities. None of various HRA methods was explicitly designed to deal with digital systems. SCHEME (Soft Control Human error Evaluation MEthod) considers only for the probability of soft control execution error in the advanced MCR. The necessity of developing HRA methods in various conditions of NPPs has been raised. In this research, the framework to estimate diagnosis error probabilities in the advanced MCR was suggested. The assessment framework was suggested by three steps. The first step is to investigate diagnosis errors and calculate their probabilities. The second step is to quantitatively estimate PSFs’ weightings in the advanced MCR. The third step is to suggest the updated TRC model to assess the nominal diagnosis error probabilities. Additionally, the proposed framework was applied by using the full-scope simulation. Experiments conducted in domestic full-scope simulator and HAMMLAB were used as data-source. Total eighteen tasks were analyzed and twenty-three crews participated in.

Effects of Measurement Errors on Individual Tree Stem Volume Estimates for the Austrian National Forest Inventory

Science.gov (United States)

Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Ronald E. McRoberts; Klemens. Schadauer

2014-01-01

National forest inventories typically estimate individual tree volumes using models that rely on measurements of predictor variables such as tree height and diameter, both of which are subject to measurement error. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of these measurement errors on the uncertainty of the model-based tree stem volume estimates. The impacts...

Error estimates for near-Real-Time Satellite Soil Moisture as Derived from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Parinussa, R.M.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Liu, Y.Y.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; de Jeu, R.A.M.

2011-01-01

A time-efficient solution to estimate the error of satellite surface soil moisture from the land parameter retrieval model is presented. The errors are estimated using an analytical solution for soil moisture retrievals from this radiative-transfer-based model that derives soil moisture from

An Empirical Study on Human Performance according to the Physical Environment (Potential Human Error Hazard) in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Jang, In Seok; Seong, Proong Hyun

2014-01-01

The management of the physical environment for safety is more effective than a nuclear industry. Despite the physical environment such as lighting, noise satisfy with management standards, it can be background factors may cause human error and affect human performance. Because the consequence of extremely human error and human performance is high according to the physical environment, requirement standard could be covered with specific criteria. Particularly, in order to avoid human errors caused by an extremely low or rapidly-changing intensity illumination and masking effect such as power disconnection, plans for better visual environment and better function performances should be made as a careful study on efficient ways to manage and continue the better conditions is conducted

Estimating model error covariances in nonlinear state-space models using Kalman smoothing and the expectation-maximisation algorithm

KAUST Repository

Dreano, Denis

2017-04-05

Specification and tuning of errors from dynamical models are important issues in data assimilation. In this work, we propose an iterative expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to estimate the model error covariances using classical extended and ensemble versions of the Kalman smoother. We show that, for additive model errors, the estimate of the error covariance converges. We also investigate other forms of model error, such as parametric or multiplicative errors. We show that additive Gaussian model error is able to compensate for non additive sources of error in the algorithms we propose. We also demonstrate the limitations of the extended version of the algorithm and recommend the use of the more robust and flexible ensemble version. This article is a proof of concept of the methodology with the Lorenz-63 attractor. We developed an open-source Python library to enable future users to apply the algorithm to their own nonlinear dynamical models.

Error estimation and global fitting in transverse-relaxation dispersion experiments to determine chemical-exchange parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishima, Rieko; Torchia, Dennis A.

2005-01-01

Off-resonance effects can introduce significant systematic errors in R 2 measurements in constant-time Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) transverse relaxation dispersion experiments. For an off-resonance chemical shift of 500 Hz, 15 N relaxation dispersion profiles obtained from experiment and computer simulation indicated a systematic error of ca. 3%. This error is three- to five-fold larger than the random error in R 2 caused by noise. Good estimates of total R 2 uncertainty are critical in order to obtain accurate estimates in optimized chemical exchange parameters and their uncertainties derived from χ 2 minimization of a target function. Here, we present a simple empirical approach that provides a good estimate of the total error (systematic + random) in 15 N R 2 values measured for the HIV protease. The advantage of this empirical error estimate is that it is applicable even when some of the factors that contribute to the off-resonance error are not known. These errors are incorporated into a χ 2 minimization protocol, in which the Carver-Richards equation is used fit the observed R 2 dispersion profiles, that yields optimized chemical exchange parameters and their confidence limits. Optimized parameters are also derived, using the same protein sample and data-fitting protocol, from 1 H R 2 measurements in which systematic errors are negligible. Although 1 H and 15 N relaxation profiles of individual residues were well fit, the optimized exchange parameters had large uncertainties (confidence limits). In contrast, when a single pair of exchange parameters (the exchange lifetime, τ ex , and the fractional population, p a ), were constrained to globally fit all R 2 profiles for residues in the dimer interface of the protein, confidence limits were less than 8% for all optimized exchange parameters. In addition, F-tests showed that quality of the fits obtained using τ ex , p a as global parameters were not improved when these parameters were free to fit the R

Adaptive finite element analysis of incompressible viscous flow using posteriori error estimation and control of node density distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yashiki, Taturou; Yagawa, Genki; Okuda, Hiroshi

1995-01-01

The adaptive finite element method based on an 'a posteriori error estimation' is known to be a powerful technique for analyzing the engineering practical problems, since it excludes the instinctive aspect of the mesh subdivision and gives high accuracy with relatively low computational cost. In the adaptive procedure, both the error estimation and the mesh generation according to the error estimator are essential. In this paper, the adaptive procedure is realized by the automatic mesh generation based on the control of node density distribution, which is decided according to the error estimator. The global percentage error, CPU time, the degrees of freedom and the accuracy of the solution of the adaptive procedure are compared with those of the conventional method using regular meshes. Such numerical examples as the driven cavity flows of various Reynolds numbers and the flows around a cylinder have shown the very high performance of the proposed adaptive procedure. (author)

Investigating the error sources of the online state of charge estimation methods for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yuejiu; Ouyang, Minggao; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu

2018-02-01

Sate of charge (SOC) estimation is generally acknowledged as one of the most important functions in battery management system for lithium-ion batteries in new energy vehicles. Though every effort is made for various online SOC estimation methods to reliably increase the estimation accuracy as much as possible within the limited on-chip resources, little literature discusses the error sources for those SOC estimation methods. This paper firstly reviews the commonly studied SOC estimation methods from a conventional classification. A novel perspective focusing on the error analysis of the SOC estimation methods is proposed. SOC estimation methods are analyzed from the views of the measured values, models, algorithms and state parameters. Subsequently, the error flow charts are proposed to analyze the error sources from the signal measurement to the models and algorithms for the widely used online SOC estimation methods in new energy vehicles. Finally, with the consideration of the working conditions, choosing more reliable and applicable SOC estimation methods is discussed, and the future development of the promising online SOC estimation methods is suggested.

Computational error estimates for Monte Carlo finite element approximation with log normal diffusion coefficients

KAUST Repository

Sandberg, Mattias

2015-01-07

The Monte Carlo (and Multi-level Monte Carlo) finite element method can be used to approximate observables of solutions to diffusion equations with log normal distributed diffusion coefficients, e.g. modelling ground water flow. Typical models use log normal diffusion coefficients with H¨older regularity of order up to 1/2 a.s. This low regularity implies that the high frequency finite element approximation error (i.e. the error from frequencies larger than the mesh frequency) is not negligible and can be larger than the computable low frequency error. This talk will address how the total error can be estimated by the computable error.

Adaptive finite element techniques for the Maxwell equations using implicit a posteriori error estimates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harutyunyan, D.; Izsak, F.; van der Vegt, Jacobus J.W.; Bochev, Mikhail A.

For the adaptive solution of the Maxwell equations on three-dimensional domains with N´ed´elec edge finite element methods, we consider an implicit a posteriori error estimation technique. On each element of the tessellation an equation for the error is formulated and solved with a properly chosen