WorldWideScience

Sample records for estimating global hydrogen

  1. Global status of hydrogen research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakeman, J.B.; Browning, D.J.

    2001-07-01

    This report surveys the global status of hydrogen research and identifies technological barriers to the implementation of a global hydrogen economy. It is concluded that there will be a 30 year transition phase to the full implementation of the hydrogen economy. In this period, hydrogen will be largely produced by the reformation of hydrocarbons, particularly methane. It will be necessary to ensure that any carbonaceous oxides (and other unwanted species) formed as by-products will be trapped and not released into the atmosphere. Following the transition phase, hydrogen should be largely produced from renewable energy sources using some form of water cracking, largely electrolysis. Target performances and costs are identified for key technologies. The status of hydrogen research in the UK is reviews and it is concluded that the UK does not have a strategy for the adoption of the hydrogen economy, nor does it have a coherent and co-ordinated research and development strategy addressing barriers to the hydrogen economy. Despite this fact, because of the long transition phase, it is still possible for the UK to formulate a coherent strategy and make a significant contribution to the global implementation of the hydrogen economy, as there are still unresolved technology issues. The report concludes with a number of recommendations. (Author)

  2. Global environmental impacts of the hydrogen economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derwent, R.; Simmonds, P.; O'Doherty, S.; Manning, A.; Collins, W.; Stevenson, D.

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen-based energy systems appear to be an attractive proposition in providing a future replacement for the current fossil-fuel based energy systems. Hydrogen is an important, though little studied, trace component of the atmosphere. It is present at the mixing ratio of about 510 ppb currently and has important man-made and natural sources. Because hydrogen reacts with tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, emissions of hydrogen to the atmosphere perturb the distributions of methane and ozone, the second and third most important greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide. Hydrogen is therefore an indirect greenhouse gas with a global warming potential GWP of 5.8 over a 100-year time horizon. A future hydrogen economy would therefore have greenhouse consequences and would not be free from climate perturbations. If a global hydrogen economy replaced the current fossil fuel-based energy system and exhibited a leakage rate of 1%, then it would produce a climate impact of 0.6% of the current fossil fuel based system. Careful attention must be given to reduce to a minimum the leakage of hydrogen from the synthesis, storage and use of hydrogen in a future global hydrogen economy if the full climate benefits are to be realised. (author)

  3. Global Polynomial Kernel Hazard Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiabu, Munir; Miranda, Maria Dolores Martínez; Nielsen, Jens Perch

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a new bias reducing method for kernel hazard estimation. The method is called global polynomial adjustment (GPA). It is a global correction which is applicable to any kernel hazard estimator. The estimator works well from a theoretical point of view as it asymptotically redu...

  4. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  5. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  6. Hydrogen based global renewable energy network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akai, Makoto [Mechanical Engineering Laboratory, AIST, MITI, Namiki, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    In the last quarter of this century, global environmental problem has emerged as a major scientific, political and social issue. Specific Problems include: depletion of ozone layer by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), acid rain, destruction of tropical forests and desertification, pollution of the sea and global wanning due to the greenhouse effect by carbon dioxide and others. Among these problems, particular attention of the world has been focused on the global warming because it has direct linkage to energy consumption which our economic development depends on so far. On the other hand, the future program of The Sunshine Project for alternative energy technology R&D, The Moonlight Project for energy conservation technology R&D, and The Global Environmental Technology Program for environmental problem mitigating technology R&D which are Japan`s national projects being promoted by their Agency of Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in the Ministry of International Trade and Industry have been reexamined in view of recent changes in the situations surrounding new energy technology. In this regard, The New Sunshine Program will be established by integrating these three activities to accelerate R&D in the field of energy and environmental technologies. In the reexamination, additional stress has been laid on the contribution to solving global environmental problem through development of clean renewable energies which constitute a major part of the {open_quotes}New Earth 21{close_quotes}, a comprehensive, long-term and international cooperative program proposed by MITI. The present paper discusses the results of feasibility study on hydrogen energy system leading to the concept of WE-NET following a brief summary on R&D status on solar and wind energy in Japan.

  7. Practical global oceanic state estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

    2007-06-01

    The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

  8. Hydrogen energy strategies and global stability and unrest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Midilli, A.; Dincer, I.; Rosen, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on hydrogen energy strategies and global stability and unrest. In order to investigate the strategic relationship between these concepts, two empirical relations that describe the effects of fossil fuels on global stability and global unrest are developed. These relations incorporate predicted utilization ratios for hydrogen energy from non-fossil fuels, and are used to investigate whether hydrogen utilization can reduce the negative global effects related to fossil fuel use, eliminate or reduce the possibilities of global energy conflicts, and contribute to achieving world stability. It is determined that, if utilization of hydrogen from non-fossil fuels increases, for a fixed usage of petroleum, coal and natural gas, the level of global unrest decreases. However, if the utilization ratio of hydrogen energy from non-fossil fuels is lower than 100%, the level of global stability decreases as the symptoms of global unrest increase. It is suggested that, to reduce the causes of global unrest and increase the likelihood of global stability in the future, hydrogen energy should be widely and efficiently used, as one component of plans for sustainable development. (author)

  9. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  10. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  11. Preliminary Cost Estimates for Nuclear Hydrogen Production: HTSE System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, K. J.; Lee, K. Y.; Lee, T. H.

    2008-01-01

    KAERI is now focusing on the research and development of the key technologies required for the design and realization of a nuclear hydrogen production system. As a preliminary study of cost estimates for nuclear hydrogen systems, the hydrogen production costs of the nuclear energy sources benchmarking GTMHR and PBMR are estimated in the necessary input data on a Korean specific basis. G4-ECONS was appropriately modified to calculate the cost for hydrogen production of HTSE (High Temperature Steam Electrolysis) process with VHTR (Very High Temperature nuclear Reactor) as a thermal energy source. The estimated costs presented in this paper show that hydrogen production by the VHTR could be competitive with current techniques of hydrogen production from fossil fuels if CO 2 capture and sequestration is required. Nuclear production of hydrogen would allow large-scale production of hydrogen at economic prices while avoiding the release of CO 2 . Nuclear production of hydrogen could thus become the enabling technology for the hydrogen economy. The major factors that would affect the cost of hydrogen were also discussed

  12. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  13. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  14. A global survey of hydrogen energy research, development and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, Barry D.; Banerjee, Abhijit

    2006-01-01

    Several factors have led to growing interest in a hydrogen energy economy, especially for transportation. A successful transition to a major role for hydrogen will require much greater cost-effectiveness, fueling infrastructure, consumer acceptance, and a strategy for its basis in renewable energy feedstocks. Despite modest attention to the need for a sustainable hydrogen energy system in several countries, in most cases in the short to mid term hydrogen will be produced from fossil fuels. This paper surveys the global status of hydrogen energy research and development (R and D) and public policy, along with the likely energy mix for making it. The current state of hydrogen energy R and D among auto, energy and fuel-cell companies is also briefly reviewed. Just two major auto companies and two nations have specific targets and timetables for hydrogen fuel cells or vehicle production, although the EU also has an aggressive, less specific strategy. Iceland and Brazil are the only nations where renewable energy feedstocks are envisioned as the major or sole future source of hydrogen. None of these plans, however, are very certain. Thus, serious questions about the sustainability of a hydrogen economy can be raised

  15. Anisotropic Density Estimation in Global Illumination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjøth, Lars

    2009-01-01

    Density estimation employed in multi-pass global illumination algorithms gives cause to a trade-off problem between bias and noise. The problem is seen most evident as blurring of strong illumination features. This thesis addresses the problem, presenting four methods that reduce both noise...

  16. Estimation of bacterial hydrogen sulfide production in vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Basic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Oral bacterial hydrogen sulfide (H2S production was estimated comparing two different colorimetric methods in microtiter plate format. High H2S production was seen for Fusobacterium spp., Treponema denticola, and Prevotella tannerae, associated with periodontal disease. The production differed between the methods indicating that H2S production may follow different pathways.

  17. Hydrogen as a renewable and sustainable solution in reducing global fossil fuel consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Midilli, Adnan; Dincer, Ibrahim

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, hydrogen is considered as a renewable and sustainable solution for reducing global fossil fuel consumption and combating global warming and studied exergetically through a parametric performance analysis. The environmental impact results are then compared with the ones obtained for fossil fuels. In this regard, some exergetic expressions are derived depending primarily upon the exergetic utilization ratios of fossil fuels and hydrogen: the fossil fuel based global waste exergy factor, hydrogen based global exergetic efficiency, fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient and hydrogen based global exergetic indicator. These relations incorporate predicted exergetic utilization ratios for hydrogen energy from non-fossil fuel resources such as water, etc., and are used to investigate whether or not exergetic utilization of hydrogen can significantly reduce the fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient (ranging from 1 to +∞) indicating the fossil fuel consumption and contribute to increase the hydrogen based global exergetic indicator (ranging from 0 to 1) indicating the hydrogen utilization at a certain ratio of fossil fuel utilization. In order to verify all these exergetic expressions, the actual fossil fuel consumption and production data are taken from the literature. Due to the unavailability of appropriate hydrogen data for analysis, it is assumed that the utilization ratios of hydrogen are ranged between 0 and 1. For the verification of these parameters, the variations of fossil fuel based global irreversibility coefficient and hydrogen based global exergetic indicator as the functions of fossil fuel based global waste exergy factor, hydrogen based global exergetic efficiency and exergetic utilization of hydrogen from non-fossil fuels are analyzed and discussed in detail. Consequently, if exergetic utilization ratio of hydrogen from non-fossil fuel sources at a certain exergetic utilization ratio of fossil fuels increases

  18. Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

  19. Global exergetic dimension of hydrogen use in reducing fossil fuel consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adnan Midilli; Ibrahim Dincer

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, hydrogen is considered as a renewable and sustainable solution for minimizing the fossil fuel based-global irreversibility coefficient of global fossil fuel consumption and combating global warming and studied exergetically through a parametric performance analysis. The environmental impact results are then compared with the ones obtained for fossil fuels. In this regard, some exergetic expressions such as global waste exergy factor, global irreversibility coefficient and hydrogen based-global exergetic indicator. In order to investigate the role of hydrogen use at minimizing the fossil fuel based global irreversibility, the actual fossil fuel consumption data are taken from the literature. Due to the unavailability of appropriate hydrogen data for analysis, it is assumed that the utilization ratios of hydrogen are ranged between 0 and 1. Consequently, if exergetic utilization ratio of hydrogen from non-fossil fuel sources at a certain exergetic utilization ratio of fossil fuels increases, the fossil fuel based-global irreversibility coefficient will decrease. (author)

  20. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  1. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

  2. Reducing global warming through the provision of hydrogen from non-fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-04-01

    Concern has increased in recent years regarding the rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and its potential effect on future global climate. One element of strategies for the reduction of CO 2 emissions would be to increase the proportion of energy derived from non-fossil energy sources. This option has led to renewed interest in the use of hydrogen as an energy vector which could facilitate the transfer of non-fossil energy into a wider range of end-use sectors. To assess, in this context, the potential role of non-fossil-fuel hydrogen (NFFH), published information on the costs and performance of technologies for the production, storage, distribution and utilisation of hydrogen has been reviewed in this study. These data have been used in a model of the UK energy system to investigate the potential contributions of the various hydrogen technologies, over a 50 year timeframe, and with different levels of constraint imposed on the rate of CO 2 release. Finally, to set these reduced CO 2 release rates in the context of the resultant reduction in global warming commitment, a further modelling study has been made to estimate the residual transient warming to 2050, assuming the world as a whole follows the same CO 2 emission profiles as modelled for the UK. This 259 page report of the study contains extensive tables of data and references, and a glossary of terms, units and conversion factors. (author)

  3. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. McDougall

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

    When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg−1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

    To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

  4. Estimation of the hydrogen concentration in rat tissue using an airtight tube following the administration of hydrogen via various routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chi; Kurokawa, Ryosuke; Fujino, Masayuki; Hirano, Shinichi; Sato, Bunpei; Li, Xiao-Kang

    2014-06-30

    Hydrogen exerts beneficial effects in disease animal models of ischemia-reperfusion injury as well as inflammatory and neurological disease. Additionally, molecular hydrogen is useful for various novel medical and therapeutic applications in the clinical setting. In the present study, the hydrogen concentration in rat blood and tissue was estimated. Wistar rats were orally administered hydrogen super-rich water (HSRW), intraperitoneal and intravenous administration of hydrogen super-rich saline (HSRS), and inhalation of hydrogen gas. A new method for determining the hydrogen concentration was then applied using high-quality sensor gas chromatography, after which the specimen was prepared via tissue homogenization in airtight tubes. This method allowed for the sensitive and stable determination of the hydrogen concentration. The hydrogen concentration reached a peak at 5 minutes after oral and intraperitoneal administration, compared to 1 minute after intravenous administration. Following inhalation of hydrogen gas, the hydrogen concentration was found to be significantly increased at 30 minutes and maintained the same level thereafter. These results demonstrate that accurately determining the hydrogen concentration in rat blood and organ tissue is very useful and important for the application of various novel medical and therapeutic therapies using molecular hydrogen.

  5. Estimation of the hydrogen concentration in rat tissue using an airtight tube following the administration of hydrogen via various routes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chi; Kurokawa, Ryosuke; Fujino, Masayuki; Hirano, Shinichi; Sato, Bunpei; Li, Xiao-Kang

    2014-01-01

    Hydrogen exerts beneficial effects in disease animal models of ischemia-reperfusion injury as well as inflammatory and neurological disease. Additionally, molecular hydrogen is useful for various novel medical and therapeutic applications in the clinical setting. In the present study, the hydrogen concentration in rat blood and tissue was estimated. Wistar rats were orally administered hydrogen super-rich water (HSRW), intraperitoneal and intravenous administration of hydrogen super-rich saline (HSRS), and inhalation of hydrogen gas. A new method for determining the hydrogen concentration was then applied using high-quality sensor gas chromatography, after which the specimen was prepared via tissue homogenization in airtight tubes. This method allowed for the sensitive and stable determination of the hydrogen concentration. The hydrogen concentration reached a peak at 5 minutes after oral and intraperitoneal administration, compared to 1 minute after intravenous administration. Following inhalation of hydrogen gas, the hydrogen concentration was found to be significantly increased at 30 minutes and maintained the same level thereafter. These results demonstrate that accurately determining the hydrogen concentration in rat blood and organ tissue is very useful and important for the application of various novel medical and therapeutic therapies using molecular hydrogen. PMID:24975958

  6. Estimation of optimal capacity of the module through the demand analysis of refinery hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Young-Seek; Kim, Ho-Jin; Kim, Il-Su [SK energy Institution of Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2006-02-15

    Hydrogen is focused as energy carrier, not an energy source on the rising of problems such as exhaustion of fossil fuel and environment pollution. Thermochemical hydrogen production by nuclear energy has potential to efficiently produce large quantities of hydrogen without producing greenhouse gases. The oil refiners and petro-chemical plant are very large, centralized producers and users of industrial hydrogen, and they a high-potential early market for hydrogen produced by nuclear energy. Therefore, hydrogen market of petro-chemical industry as demand site for nuclear hydrogen was investigated and worked for demand forecast of hydrogen in 2020. Also we suggested possible supply plans of nuclear hydrogen considered regional characteristics. The hydrogen production cost was analyzed and estimated for nuclear hydrogen as well as conventional hydrogen production such as natural gas reforming and coal gasification in various range.

  7. Estimation of optimal capacity of the module through the demand analysis of refinery hydrogen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Young-Seek; Kim, Ho-Jin; Kim, Il-Su

    2006-02-01

    Hydrogen is focused as energy carrier, not an energy source on the rising of problems such as exhaustion of fossil fuel and environment pollution. Thermochemical hydrogen production by nuclear energy has potential to efficiently produce large quantities of hydrogen without producing greenhouse gases. The oil refiners and petro-chemical plant are very large, centralized producers and users of industrial hydrogen, and they a high-potential early market for hydrogen produced by nuclear energy. Therefore, hydrogen market of petro-chemical industry as demand site for nuclear hydrogen was investigated and worked for demand forecast of hydrogen in 2020. Also we suggested possible supply plans of nuclear hydrogen considered regional characteristics. The hydrogen production cost was analyzed and estimated for nuclear hydrogen as well as conventional hydrogen production such as natural gas reforming and coal gasification in various range

  8. Environmental and Health Benefits and Risks of a Global Hydrogen Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2003-12-01

    Rapid development in hydrogen fuel-cell technologies will create a strong impetus for a massive hydrogen supply and distribution infrastructure in the coming decades. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. Stratospheric ozone depletion would increase exposure to harmful ultraviolet radiation and increased risk to melanoma. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) is the principal source of uncertainty in our assessment. We propose global monitoring of hydrogen and its deuterium content to define a baseline and track its budget to responsibly prepare for a global hydrogen economy.

  9. Hydrogen desorption reactions of Li-N-H hydrogen storage system: Estimation of activation free energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Mitsuru; Haga, Tetsuya; Kawai, Yasuaki; Kojima, Yoshitsugu

    2007-01-01

    The dehydrogenation reactions of the mixtures of lithium amide (LiNH 2 ) and lithium hydride (LiH) were studied under an Ar atmosphere by means of temperature programmed desorption (TPD) technique. The dehydrogenation reaction of the LiNH 2 /LiH mixture was accelerated by addition of 1 mol% Ti(III) species (k = 3.1 x 10 -4 s -1 at 493 K), and prolonged ball-milling time (16 h) further enhanced reaction rate (k = 1.1 x 10 -3 s -1 at 493 K). For the hydrogen desorption reaction of Ti(III) doped samples, the activation energies estimated by Kissinger plot (95 kJ mol -1 ) and Arrhenius plot (110 kJ mol -1 ) were in reasonable agreement. The LiNH 2 /LiH mixture without Ti(III) species, exhibited slower hydrogen desorption process and the kinetic traces deviated from single exponential behavior. The results indicated the Ti(III) additives change the hydrogen desorption reaction mechanism of the LiNH 2 /LiH mixture

  10. Reaping Environmental Benefits of a Global Hydrogen Economy: How Large, Fow Soon, and at What Risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Western world has taken an aggressive posture to transition to a global hydrogen economy. While numerous technical challenges need to be addressed to achieve this it is timely to examine the environmental benefits and risks of this transition. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the leak rates in global hydrogen infrastructure and the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) are principal sources of uncertainty in our assessment.

  11. Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Estimated Net Migration by Decade: 1970-2000 data set provides estimates of net migration over the three decades from 1970 to 2000. Because of the lack of...

  12. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  13. Estimation of the global regularity of a multifractional Brownian motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lebovits, Joachim; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional Brownian motion at two different frequencies. We show that a ...... that a logarithmic transformation of this statistic converges in probability to the minimum of the Hurst functional parameter, which is, under weak assumptions, identical to the global regularity index of the path....

  14. The global transcriptional response of fission yeast to hydrogen sulfide.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Jia

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hydrogen sulfide (H(2S is a newly identified member of the small family of gasotransmitters that are endogenous gaseous signaling molecules that have a fundamental role in human biology and disease. Although it is a relatively recent discovery and the mechanism of H(2S activity is not completely understood, it is known to be involved in a number of cellular processes; H(2S can affect ion channels, transcription factors and protein kinases in mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this paper, we have used fission yeast as a model organism to study the global gene expression profile in response to H(2S by microarray. We initially measured the genome-wide transcriptional response of fission yeast to H(2S. Through the functional classification of genes whose expression profile changed in response to H(2S, we found that H(2S mainly influences genes that encode putative or known stress proteins, membrane transporters, cell cycle/meiotic proteins, transcription factors and respiration protein in the mitochondrion. Our analysis showed that there was a significant overlap between the genes affected by H(2S and the stress response. We identified that the target genes of the MAPK pathway respond to H(2S; we also identified that a number of transporters respond to H(2S, these include sugar/carbohydrate transporters, ion transporters, and amino acid transporters. We found many mitochondrial genes to be down regulated upon H(2S treatment and that H(2S can reduce mitochondrial oxygen consumption. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study identifies potential molecular targets of the signaling molecule H(2S in fission yeast and provides clues about the identity of homologues human proteins and will further the understanding of the cellular role of H(2S in human diseases.

  15. The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions

    OpenAIRE

    McPherson, M.; Johnson, N.; Strubegger, M.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have noted the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies for enabling large-scale variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment in long-term climate change mitigation scenarios. However, global studies, which typically use integrated assessment models, assume a fixed cost trajectory for storage and hydrogen technologies; thereby ignoring the sensitivity of VRE deployment and/or mitigation costs to uncertainties in future storage and hydrogen technology costs. Y...

  16. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  17. 2010 Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Global Commercialization & Development Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2010-11-01

    This report offers examples of real-world applications and technical progress of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, including policies adopted by countries to increase technology development and commercialization.

  18. Role of nuclear produced hydrogen for global environment and energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashimo, M.; Kurosawa, A.; Ikeda, K.

    2004-01-01

    Sustainability on economical growth, energy supply and environment are major issues for the 21. century. Within this context, one of the promising concepts is the possibility of nuclear-produced hydrogen. In this study, the effect of nuclear-produced hydrogen on the environment is discussed, based on the output of the computer code 'Grape', which simulates the effects of the energy, environment and economy in 21. century. Five cases are assumed in this study. The first case is 'Business as usual by Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)', the second 'CO 2 limited to 550 ppm by ICE', the third 'CO 2 limited to 550 ppm by Hybrid Car', the fourth 'CO 2 limited to 550 ppm by Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) with Hydrogen produced by conventional Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)' and the fifth 'CO 2 limited to 550 ppm by FCV with Nuclear Produced-Hydrogen'. The energy used for transportation is at present about 25% of the total energy consumption in the world and is expected to be the same in the future, if there is no improvement of energy efficiency for transportation. On this point, the hybrid car shows the much better efficiency, about 2 times better than traditional internal combustion engines. Fuel Cell powered Vehicles are expected to be a key to resolving the combined issue of the environment and energy in this century. The nuclear-produced hydrogen is a better solution than conventional hydrogen production method using steam methane reforming. (author)

  19. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations the ...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management.......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions...

  20. Illegal markets: Estimates of global proceeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinković Darko M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Illegal markets represent a phenomenon of considerable economic, political and social significance whose annual income exceeds the value of a thousand billion USD. Illegal market participants are beyond the reach of government institutions and rule of law while social connections and personal acquaintances play an important role of functional substitute. In the last decade there was a significant increase of illegal trafficking of narcotics, people, fire arms, counterfeit products and natural resources. Both selling and purchase of these as well as other kinds of products and services at illegal markets are generally characterized by high level of organization and presence of strong criminal groups and networks. Although these activities existed in the past their present scope and geographic distribution are without precedent. Measuring unlawful financial flows at illegal markets represents quite a complex task. Various estimates are the result of inexistence of uniform and generally accepted methodology. In addition to this, the special problem is also the consensus of market actors, because of which the phenomenon of illegal markets and distribution of products and services at these markets is rather hidden. The paper defines and analyzes the key features of illegal markets, the role of organized crime at illegal markets, as well as the estimates of the values of financial flows at the markets of counterfeit products, narcotics, and people as goods, or human organs and sexual services, weapons, tobacco products and dirty money.

  1. Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Briggs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, the public has been made to feel guilty about the tragedy of human-caused biodiversity loss due to the extinction of hundreds or thousands of species every year. Numerous articles and books from the scientific and popular press and publicity on the internet have contributed to a propaganda wave about our grievous loss and the beginning of a sixth mass extinction. However, within the past few years, questions have arisen about the validity of the data which led to the doom scenario. Here I show that, for the past 500 years, terrestrial animals (insects and vertebrates have been losing less than two species per year due to human causes. The majority of the extinctions have occurred on oceanic islands with little effect on continental ecology. In the marine environment, losses have also been very low. At the same time, speciation has continued to occur and biodiversity gain by this means may have equaled or even surpassed the losses. While species loss is not, so far, a global conservation problem, ongoing population declines within thousands of species that are at risk on land and in the sea constitute an extinction debt that will be paid unless those species can be rescued.

  2. Cost estimation of hydrogen and DME produced by nuclear heat utilization system. Joint research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiina, Yasuaki; Nishihara, Tetsuo

    2003-09-01

    Research of hydrogen energy has been performed in order to spread use of the hydrogen energy in 2020 or 2030. It will take, however, many years for the hydrogen energy to be used very easily like gasoline, diesel oil and city gas in all of countries. During the periods, low CO 2 release liquid fuels would be used together with hydrogen. Recently, di-methyl-either (DME) has been noticed as one of the substitute liquid fuels of petroleum. Such liquid fuels can be produced from the mixed gas such as hydrogen and carbon oxide which are produced by steam reforming hydrogen generation system by the use of nuclear heat. Therefore, the system would be one of the candidates of future system of nuclear heat utilization. In the present study, we focused on the production of hydrogen and DME. Economic evaluation was estimated for hydrogen and DME production in commercial and nuclear heat utilization plant. At first, heat and mass balance of each process in commercial plant of hydrogen production was estimated and commercial prices of each process were derived. Then, price was estimated when nuclear heat was used instead of required heat of commercial plant. Results showed that the production prices produced by nuclear heat were cheaper by 10% for hydrogen and 3% for DME. With the consideration of reduction effect of CO 2 release, utilization of nuclear heat would be more effective. (author)

  3. WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Cawthorne, Amy; Angulo, Fred

    2013-01-01

    BackgroundThe public health impact of foodborne diseases globally is unknown. The WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases was launched out of the need to fill this data gap. It is anticipated that this effort will enable policy makers and other stakeholders to set...... appropriate, evidence-informed priorities in the area of food safety. MethodsThe Initiative aims to provide estimates on the global burden of foodborne diseases by age, sex, and region; strengthen country capacity for conducting burden of foodborne disease assessments in parallel with food safety policy...

  4. Impact of H{sub 2} emissions of a global hydrogen economy on the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grooss, Jens-Uwe; Feck, Thomas; Vogel, Baerbel; Riese, Martin [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    ''Green'' hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H{sub 2}) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H{sub 2} that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H{sub 2} can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H{sub 2} burden. The impact of these emissions is investigated. Figure 1 is a sketch that clarifies the path way and impact of hydrogen in the stratosphere. The air follows the Brewer-Dobson circulation in which air enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, ascends then to the upper stratosphere and finally descends in polar latitudes within a typical transport time frame of 4 to 8 years. (orig.)

  5. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  6. Estimates of global cyanobacterial biomass and its distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Belnap, Jayne; Neuer, Susanne; Schanz, Ferdinand

    2003-01-01

    We estimated global cyanobacterial biomass in the main reservoirs of cyanobacteria on Earth: marine and freshwater plankton, arid land soil crusts, and endoliths. Estimates were based on typical population density values as measured during our research, or as obtained from literature surveys, which were then coupled with data on global geographical area coverage. Among the marine plankton, the global biomass of Prochlorococcus reaches 120 × 1012 grams of carbon (g C), and that of Synechoccus some 43 × 1012 g C. This makes Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, in that order, the most abundant cyanobacteria on Earth. Tropical marine blooms of Trichodesmium account for an additional 10 × 1012 g C worldwide. In terrestrial environments, the mass of cyanobacteria in arid land soil crusts is estimated to reach 54 × 1012 g C and that of arid land endolithic communities an additional 14 × 1012 g C. The global biomass of planktic cyanobacteria in lakes is estimated to be around 3 × 1012 g C. Our conservative estimates, which did not include some potentially significant biomass reservoirs such as polar and subarctic areas, topsoils in subhumid climates, and shallow marine and freshwater benthos, indicate that the total global cyanobacterial biomass is in the order of 3 × 1014 g C, surpassing a thousand million metric tons (1015 g) of wet biomass.

  7. Parameter estimation for hydrogen analysis by using transport method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvi, S.; Can, N.

    1992-01-01

    A transport method is described which reduces greatly the number of calibration standards needed for hydrogen analysis by neutron induced prompt γ-rays. The counts in the photopeaks from neutron capture in hydrogen for various standard concentrations, the distribution of the source neutron rate entering the thermal group and the reaction rates in the samples are investigated theoretically using 100 energy group cross sections and experimental 252 Cf spectra for a test configuration. Comparison of theoretical results with those measured from the test configuration shows good agreement. (author)

  8. Global stereo matching algorithm based on disparity range estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Gu, Feifei

    2017-09-01

    The global stereo matching algorithms are of high accuracy for the estimation of disparity map, but the time-consuming in the optimization process still faces a curse, especially for the image pairs with high resolution and large baseline setting. To improve the computational efficiency of the global algorithms, a disparity range estimation scheme for the global stereo matching is proposed to estimate the disparity map of rectified stereo images in this paper. The projective geometry in a parallel binocular stereo vision is investigated to reveal a relationship between two disparities at each pixel in the rectified stereo images with different baselines, which can be used to quickly obtain a predicted disparity map in a long baseline setting estimated by that in the small one. Then, the drastically reduced disparity ranges at each pixel under a long baseline setting can be determined by the predicted disparity map. Furthermore, the disparity range estimation scheme is introduced into the graph cuts with expansion moves to estimate the precise disparity map, which can greatly save the cost of computing without loss of accuracy in the stereo matching, especially for the dense global stereo matching, compared to the traditional algorithm. Experimental results with the Middlebury stereo datasets are presented to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  9. A method of estimating hydrogen in solid and liquid samples by means of neutron thermalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, D.H.; Sanders, J.E.

    1967-06-01

    The count-rate of a cadmium-covered Pu239 fission chamber placed in a reactor neutron flux increases when a hydrogen-containing material is inserted due to the thermalisation of epicadmium neutrons. This effect forms the basis of a non-destructive method of estimating hydrogen in solid or liquid samples, and trial experiments to demonstrate the principles have been made. The sensitivity is such that hydrogen down to 10 p.p.m. in a typical metal should be detected. A useful feature of the method is its very low response to elements other than hydrogen. (author)

  10. Air pollution and climate-forcing impacts of a global hydrogen economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Martin G; Diehl, Thomas; Brasseur, Guy P; Zittel, Werner

    2003-10-24

    If today's surface traffic fleet were powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cell technology, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide could be reduced by up to 50%, leading to significant improvements in air quality throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Model simulations of such a scenario predict a decrease in global OH and an increased lifetime of methane, caused primarily by the reduction of the NOx emissions. The sign of the change in climate forcing caused by carbon dioxide and methane depends on the technology used to generate the molecular hydrogen. A possible rise in atmospheric hydrogen concentrations is unlikely to cause significant perturbations of the climate system.

  11. Hydrogen in a global long-term perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quakernaat, J.

    1994-01-01

    For many countries, the hydrogen economy offers an operational objective for their long-term energy structure. At the end of the next century, the world will depend on the predominate use of carbon-free and carbon-neutral sources of energy, such as flow energy, energy from modern biomass, and safe nuclear energy. The direct and indirect costs involved in the use of traditional energy supplies will increase sharply in the process of time, so that the economic feasibility of a less intensive use of energy and the introduction of alternative energy supply systems will no longer be insurmountable problems. The supply and demand structures of energy will be optimally blended by the use of hydrogen and electricity, an almost ideal combination of secondary energy carriers. With these carriers, practically every centralized or decentralized, environmentally sound energy supply can be permanently maintained, both within and outside of industrialized, metropolitan areas. The economic development of developing countries will depend on the predominate use of relatively 'cheap' fossil energy carriers (coal, petroleum and natural gas), as well as on the accompanying energy supplies structures. Yet those countries as well, similar to the wealthy industrial countries, will have to start using the highly capital intensive and very energy efficient energy supply systems and energy consumption technologies. This requires innovative strategies that are aimed at compensating developing countries (temporarily) for their lack of purchasing power and knowledge infrastructure. The costs involved in the hydrogen chain are still too high, and the world energy prices are still too low for such a transfer to take place. The attention, however, will focus on drastic energy saving, decarbonization of fossil fuels, substitution to natural gas, the opening up of flow energy, biomass production, and the development of inherent, safe nuclear energy. 49 refs

  12. A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

  13. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  14. Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

  15. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Lang (Jens); J.G. Verwer (Jan)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based onthe adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  16. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lang, J.; Verwer, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract. This paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based on the adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  17. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  18. Estimating the true global burden of mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigo, Daniel; Thornicroft, Graham; Atun, Rifat

    2016-02-01

    We argue that the global burden of mental illness is underestimated and examine the reasons for under-estimation to identify five main causes: overlap between psychiatric and neurological disorders; the grouping of suicide and self-harm as a separate category; conflation of all chronic pain syndromes with musculoskeletal disorders; exclusion of personality disorders from disease burden calculations; and inadequate consideration of the contribution of severe mental illness to mortality from associated causes. Using published data, we estimate the disease burden for mental illness to show that the global burden of mental illness accounts for 32·4% of years lived with disability (YLDs) and 13·0% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), instead of the earlier estimates suggesting 21·2% of YLDs and 7·1% of DALYs. Currently used approaches underestimate the burden of mental illness by more than a third. Our estimates place mental illness a distant first in global burden of disease in terms of YLDs, and level with cardiovascular and circulatory diseases in terms of DALYs. The unacceptable apathy of governments and funders of global health must be overcome to mitigate the human, social, and economic costs of mental illness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  20. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies - Task 1 Report Technology Evaluation of Hydrogen Light Duty Vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan Andrew J.; Rousseau, Aymeric

    2007-12-01

    This task analyzes the candidate hydrogen-fueled vehicles for near-term use in the Southeastern U.S. The purpose of this work is to assess their potential in terms of efficiency and performance. This report compares conventional, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) with gasoline and hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines (ICEs) as well as fuel cell and fuel cell hybrids from a technology as well as fuel economy point of view. All the vehicles have been simulated using the Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit (PSAT). First, some background information is provided on recent American automotive market trends and consequences. Moreover, available options are presented for introducing cleaner and more economical vehicles in the market in the future. In this study, analysis of various candidate hydrogen-fueled vehicles is performed using PSAT and, thus, a brief description of PSAT features and capabilities are provided. Detailed information on the simulation analysis performed is also offered, including methodology assumptions, fuel economic results, and conclusions from the findings.

  1. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  2. Estimation of hydrogen production in genetically modified E. coli fermentations using an artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosales-Colunga, Luis Manuel; De Leon Rodriguez, Antonio [Division de Biologia Molecular, Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica, Camino a la Presa San Jose 2055, Col. Lomas 4a secc, San Luis Potosi, SLP 78216 (Mexico); Garcia, Raul Gonzalez [Centro de Investigacion y Estudios de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi, Av. Dr. Manuel Nava 6, San Luis Potosi, SLP 78210 (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    Biological hydrogen production is an active research area due to the importance of this gas as an energy carrier and the advantages of using biological systems to produce it. A cheap and practical on-line hydrogen determination is desired in those processes. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to estimate the hydrogen production in fermentative processes. A back propagation neural network (BPNN) of one hidden layer with 12 nodes was selected. The BPNN training was done using the conjugated gradient algorithm and on-line measurements of dissolved CO{sub 2}, pH and oxidation-reduction potential during the fermentations of cheese whey by Escherichia coli {delta}hycA {delta}lacI (WDHL) strain with or without pH control. The correlation coefficient between the hydrogen production determined by gas chromatography and the hydrogen production estimated by the BPNN was 0.955. Results showed that the BPNN successfully estimated the hydrogen production using only on-line parameters in genetically modified E. coli fermentations either with or without pH control. This approach could be used for other hydrogen production systems. (author)

  3. Estimation of diffuse from measured global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moriarty, W.W.

    1991-01-01

    A data set of quality controlled radiation observations from stations scattered throughout Australia was formed and further screened to remove residual doubtful observations. It was then divided into groups by solar elevation, and used to find average relationships for each elevation group between relative global radiation (clearness index - the measured global radiation expressed as a proportion of the radiation on a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere) and relative diffuse radiation. Clear-cut relationships were found, which were then fitted by polynomial expressions giving the relative diffuse radiation as a function of relative global radiation and solar elevation. When these expressions were used to estimate the diffuse radiation from the global, the results had a slightly smaller spread of errors than those from an earlier technique given by Spencer. It was found that the errors were related to cloud amount, and further relationships were developed giving the errors as functions of global radiation, solar elevation, and the fraction of sky obscured by high cloud and by opaque (low and middle level) cloud. When these relationships were used to adjust the first estimates of diffuse radiation, there was a considerable reduction in the number of large errors

  4. High-quality global hydrogen silsequioxane contact planarization for nanoimprint lithography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Büyükköse, S.; Vratzov, Boris; van der Wiel, Wilfred Gerard

    2011-01-01

    The authors present a novel global contact planarization technique based on the spin-on-glass material hydrogen silsequioxane (HSQ) and demonstrate its excellent performance on patterns of 70 nm up to several microns generated by UV-based nanoimprint lithography. The HSQ layer (∼165 nm) is spin

  5. 1km Global Terrestrial Carbon Flux: Estimations and Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Saito, M.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating global scale of the terrestrial carbon flux change with high accuracy and high resolution is important to understand global environmental changes. Furthermore the estimations of the global spatiotemporal distribution may contribute to the political and social activities such as REDD+. In order to reveal the current state of terrestrial carbon fluxes covering all over the world and a decadal scale. The satellite-based diagnostic biosphere model is suitable for achieving this purpose owing to observing on the present global land surface condition uniformly at some time interval. In this study, we estimated the global terrestrial carbon fluxes with 1km grids by using the terrestrial biosphere model (BEAMS). And we evaluated our new carbon flux estimations on various spatial scales and showed the transition of forest carbon stocks in some regions. Because BEAMS required high resolution meteorological data and satellite data as input data, we made 1km interpolated data using a kriging method. The data used in this study were JRA-55, GPCP, GOSAT L4B atmospheric CO2 data as meteorological data, and MODIS land product as land surface satellite data. Interpolating process was performed on the meteorological data because of insufficient resolution, but not on MODIS data. We evaluated our new carbon flux estimations using the flux tower measurement (FLUXNET2015 Datasets) in a point scale. We used 166 sites data for evaluating our model results. These flux sites are classified following vegetation type (DBF, EBF, ENF, mixed forests, grass lands, croplands, shrub lands, Savannas, wetlands). In global scale, the BEAMS estimations was underestimated compared to the flux measurements in the case of carbon uptake and release. The monthly variations of NEP showed relatively high correlations in DBF and mixed forests, but the correlation coefficients of EBF, ENF, and grass lands were less than 0.5. In the meteorological factors, air temperature and solar radiation showed

  6. Cost estimation of hydrogen and DME produced by nuclear heat utilization system II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiina, Yasuaki; Nishihara, Tetsuo

    2004-09-01

    Utilization and production of hydrogen has been studied in order to spread utilization of the hydrogen energy in 2020 or 2030. It will take, however, many years for the hydrogen energy to be used very easily like gasoline, diesel oil and city gas in the world. During the periods, low CO 2 release liquid fuels would be used together with hydrogen. Recently, di-methyl-ether (DME). has been noticed as one of the substitute liquid fuels of petroleum. Such liquid fuels can be produced from the mixed gas such as hydrogen and carbon oxide which are produced from natural gas by steam reforming. Therefore, the system would become one of the candidates of future system of nuclear heat utilization. Following the study in 2002, we performed economic evaluation of the hydrogen and DME production by nuclear heat utilization plant where heat generated by HTGR is completely consumed for the production. The results show that hydrogen price produced by nuclear was about 17% cheaper than the commercial price by increase in recovery rate of high purity hydrogen with increased in PSA process. Price of DME in indirect method produced by nuclear heat was also about 17% cheaper than the commercial price by producing high purity hydrogen in the DME producing process. As for the DME, since price of DME produced near oil land in petroleum exporting countries is cheaper than production in Japan, production of DME by nuclear heat in Japan has disadvantage economically in this time. Trial study to estimate DME price produced by direct method was performed. From the present estimation, utilization of nuclear heat for the production of hydrogen would be more effective with coupled consideration of reduction effect of CO 2 release. (author)

  7. GLOBAL PROPERTIES OF NEUTRAL HYDROGEN IN COMPACT GROUPS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Lisa May [Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Johnson, Kelsey E. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States); Gallagher, Sarah C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London, ON (Canada); Privon, George C. [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción (Chile); Kepley, Amanda A. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States); Whelan, David G. [Physics Department, Austin College, Sherman, TX 75090 (United States); Desjardins, Tyler D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045 (United States); Zabludoff, Ann I. [Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2016-02-15

    Compact groups of galaxies provide a unique environment to study the evolution of galaxies amid frequent gravitational encounters. These nearby groups have conditions similar to those in the earlier universe when galaxies were assembled and give us the opportunity to witness hierarchical formation in progress. To understand how the compact group environment affects galaxy evolution, we examine the gas and dust in these groups. We present new single-dish GBT neutral hydrogen (H i) observations of 30 compact groups and define a new way to quantify the group H i content as the H i-to-stellar mass ratio of the group as a whole. We compare the H i content with mid-IR indicators of star formation and optical [g − r] color to search for correlations between group gas content and star formation activity of individual group members. Quiescent galaxies tend to live in H i-poor groups, and galaxies with active star formation are more commonly found in H i-rich groups. Intriguingly, we also find “rogue” galaxies whose star formation does not correlate with group H i content. In particular, we identify three galaxies (NGC 2968 in RSCG 34, KUG 1131+202A in RSCG 42, and NGC 4613 in RSCG 64) whose mid-IR activity is discrepant with the H i. We speculate that this mismatch between mid-IR activity and H i content is a consequence of strong interactions in this environment that can strip H i from galaxies and abruptly affect star formation. Ultimately, characterizing how and on what timescales the gas is processed in compact groups will help us understand the interstellar medium in complex, dense environments similar to the earlier universe.

  8. GLOBAL PROPERTIES OF NEUTRAL HYDROGEN IN COMPACT GROUPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, Lisa May; Johnson, Kelsey E.; Gallagher, Sarah C.; Privon, George C.; Kepley, Amanda A.; Whelan, David G.; Desjardins, Tyler D.; Zabludoff, Ann I.

    2016-01-01

    Compact groups of galaxies provide a unique environment to study the evolution of galaxies amid frequent gravitational encounters. These nearby groups have conditions similar to those in the earlier universe when galaxies were assembled and give us the opportunity to witness hierarchical formation in progress. To understand how the compact group environment affects galaxy evolution, we examine the gas and dust in these groups. We present new single-dish GBT neutral hydrogen (H i) observations of 30 compact groups and define a new way to quantify the group H i content as the H i-to-stellar mass ratio of the group as a whole. We compare the H i content with mid-IR indicators of star formation and optical [g − r] color to search for correlations between group gas content and star formation activity of individual group members. Quiescent galaxies tend to live in H i-poor groups, and galaxies with active star formation are more commonly found in H i-rich groups. Intriguingly, we also find “rogue” galaxies whose star formation does not correlate with group H i content. In particular, we identify three galaxies (NGC 2968 in RSCG 34, KUG 1131+202A in RSCG 42, and NGC 4613 in RSCG 64) whose mid-IR activity is discrepant with the H i. We speculate that this mismatch between mid-IR activity and H i content is a consequence of strong interactions in this environment that can strip H i from galaxies and abruptly affect star formation. Ultimately, characterizing how and on what timescales the gas is processed in compact groups will help us understand the interstellar medium in complex, dense environments similar to the earlier universe

  9. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  10. Estimating perception of scene layout properties from global image features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michael G; Oliva, Aude

    2010-01-08

    The relationship between image features and scene structure is central to the study of human visual perception and computer vision, but many of the specifics of real-world layout perception remain unknown. We do not know which image features are relevant to perceiving layout properties, or whether those features provide the same information for every type of image. Furthermore, we do not know the spatial resolutions required for perceiving different properties. This paper describes an experiment and a computational model that provides new insights on these issues. Humans perceive the global spatial layout properties such as dominant depth, openness, and perspective, from a single image. This work describes an algorithm that reliably predicts human layout judgments. This model's predictions are general, not specific to the observers it trained on. Analysis reveals that the optimal spatial resolutions for determining layout vary with the content of the space and the property being estimated. Openness is best estimated at high resolution, depth is best estimated at medium resolution, and perspective is best estimated at low resolution. Given the reliability and simplicity of estimating the global layout of real-world environments, this model could help resolve perceptual ambiguities encountered by more detailed scene reconstruction schemas.

  11. Applicability of empirical correlations for estimating global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Baholo, M.

    1987-01-01

    Three empirical models suggested by different investigators, for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface, are compared statistically to test their universal applicability. The models thus compared are those suggested by Rietveld, Glover and McCulloch and Gopinathan. The models are compared by calculating the root mean square error, mean bias error and mean relative percentage error values. The model suggested by Gopinathan yields the best results in terms of root mean square, mean bias and mean percentage errors. The model by Rietveld is the second best and the model by Glover and McCulloch comes at third place. However, the differences in the magnitude of errors among the three models are very small and all the three models can be considered to be accurate for global radiation estimation for any location in the world

  12. Estimation of Hydrogen-Exchange Protection Factors from MD Simulation Based on Amide Hydrogen Bonding Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, In-Hee; Venable, John D.; Steckler, Caitlin; Cellitti, Susan E.; Lesley, Scott A.; Spraggon, Glen; Brock, Ansgar

    2015-01-01

    Hydrogen exchange (HX) studies have provided critical insight into our understanding of protein folding, structure and dynamics. More recently, Hydrogen Exchange Mass Spectrometry (HX-MS) has become a widely applicable tool for HX studies. The interpretation of the wealth of data generated by HX-MS experiments as well as other HX methods would greatly benefit from the availability of exchange predictions derived from structures or models for comparison with experiment. Most reported computational HX modeling studies have employed solvent-accessible-surface-area based metrics in attempts to interpret HX data on the basis of structures or models. In this study, a computational HX-MS prediction method based on classification of the amide hydrogen bonding modes mimicking the local unfolding model is demonstrated. Analysis of the NH bonding configurations from Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation snapshots is used to determine partitioning over bonded and non-bonded NH states and is directly mapped into a protection factor (PF) using a logistics growth function. Predicted PFs are then used for calculating deuteration values of peptides and compared with experimental data. Hydrogen exchange MS data for Fatty acid synthase thioesterase (FAS-TE) collected for a range of pHs and temperatures was used for detailed evaluation of the approach. High correlation between prediction and experiment for observable fragment peptides is observed in the FAS-TE and additional benchmarking systems that included various apo/holo proteins for which literature data were available. In addition, it is shown that HX modeling can improve experimental resolution through decomposition of in-exchange curves into rate classes, which correlate with prediction from MD. Successful rate class decompositions provide further evidence that the presented approach captures the underlying physical processes correctly at the single residue level. This assessment is further strengthened in a comparison of

  13. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal...... the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention....

  14. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies – Tasks 3 & 4 Report Economic, Energy, and Environmental Analysis of Hydrogen Production and Delivery Options in Select Alabama Markets: Preliminary Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan Andrew J.; Gillette, Jerry; Elgowainy, Amgad; Mintz, Marianne

    2007-12-01

    This report documents a set of case studies developed to estimate the cost of producing, storing, delivering, and dispensing hydrogen for light-duty vehicles for several scenarios involving metropolitan areas in Alabama. While the majority of the scenarios focused on centralized hydrogen production and pipeline delivery, alternative delivery modes were also examined. Although Alabama was used as the case study for this analysis, the results provide insights into the unique requirements for deploying hydrogen infrastructure in smaller urban and rural environments that lie outside the DOE’s high priority hydrogen deployment regions. Hydrogen production costs were estimated for three technologies – steam-methane reforming (SMR), coal gasification, and thermochemical water-splitting using advanced nuclear reactors. In all cases examined, SMR has the lowest production cost for the demands associated with metropolitan areas in Alabama. Although other production options may be less costly for larger hydrogen markets, these were not examined within the context of the case studies.

  15. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise S L Teh

    Full Text Available Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  16. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Louise S L; Teh, Lydia C L; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  17. Damage severity estimation from the global stiffness decrease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitescu, C; Gillich, G R; Manescu, T; Korka, Z I; Abdel Wahab, M

    2017-01-01

    In actual damage detection methods, localization and severity estimation can be treated separately. The severity is commonly estimated using fracture mechanics approach, with the main disadvantage of involving empirically deduced relations. In this paper, a damage severity estimator based on the global stiffness reduction is proposed. This feature is computed from the deflections of the intact and damaged beam, respectively. The damage is always located where the bending moment achieves maxima. If the damage is positioned elsewhere on the beam, its effect becomes lower, because the stress is produced by a diminished bending moment. It is shown that the global stiffness reduction produced by a crack is the same for all beams with a similar cross-section, regardless of the boundary conditions. One mathematical relation indicating the severity and another indicating the effect of removing damage from the beam. Measurements on damaged beams with different boundary conditions and cross-sections are carried out, and the location and severity are found using the proposed relations. These comparisons prove that the proposed approach can be used to accurately compute the severity estimator. (paper)

  18. A priori estimates of global solutions of superlinear parabolic systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Pacuta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the parabolic system $ u_{t}-\\Delta u = u^{r}v^{p}$, $v_{t}-\\Delta v = u^{q}v^{s}$ in $\\Omega\\times(0,\\infty$, complemented by the homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions and the initial conditions $(u,v(\\cdot,0 = (u_{0},v_{0}$ in $\\Omega$, where $\\Omega $ is a smooth bounded domain in $ \\mathbb{R}^{N} $ and $ u_{0},v_{0}\\in L^{\\infty}(\\Omega$ are nonnegative functions. We find conditions on $ p,q,r,s $ guaranteeing a priori estimates of nonnegative classical global solutions. More precisely every such solution is bounded by a constant depending on suitable norm of the initial data. Our proofs are based on bootstrap in weighted Lebesgue spaces, universal estimates of auxiliary functions and estimates of the Dirichlet heat kernel.

  19. Estimation of Physical Properties for Hydrogen Isotopes Using Aspen Plus Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Jung Ho; Yun, Sei Hun; Cho, Seung Yon; Chang, Min Ho; Kang, Hyun Goo; Jung, Ki Jung; Kim, Dong Min

    2009-01-01

    Hydrogen isotopes are H 2 , HD, D 2 , H 2 , HD, D 2 , HT, DT and T 2 . Among the hydrogen isotopes, the physical properties of H2, HD and D+2 are included in the Aspen Plus, however HT, D T and T 2 are not included. In this study, various thermodynamic properties were estimated for six components of isotopes by use of the fixed properties and temperature-dependent properties. To estimate thermodynamic properties, Soave modified Redlich-Kwong equation of state and Aspenplus simulator was used. The results were verified and compared with by PRO/II with PROVISION of Invensys

  20. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory Falling Snow Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Kulie, M.; Milani, L.; Munchak, S. J.; Wood, N.; Levizzani, V.

    2017-12-01

    Retrievals of falling snow from space represent an important data set for understanding and linking the Earth's atmospheric, hydrological, and energy cycles. Estimates of falling snow must be captured to obtain the true global precipitation water cycle, snowfall accumulations are required for hydrological studies, and without knowledge of the frozen particles in clouds one cannot adequately understand the energy and radiation budgets. This work focuses on comparing the first stable falling snow retrieval products (released May 2017) for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (GPM-CO), which was launched February 2014, and carries both an active dual frequency (Ku- and Ka-band) precipitation radar (DPR) and a passive microwave radiometer (GPM Microwave Imager-GMI). Five separate GPM-CO falling snow retrieval algorithm products are analyzed including those from DPR Matched (Ka+Ku) Scan, DPR Normal Scan (Ku), DPR High Sensitivity Scan (Ka), combined DPR+GMI, and GMI. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events, the science is relatively new, the different on-orbit instruments don't capture all snow rates equally, and retrieval algorithms differ. Thus a detailed comparison among the GPM-CO products elucidates advantages and disadvantages of the retrievals. GPM and CloudSat global snowfall evaluation exercises are natural investigative pathways to explore, but caution must be undertaken when analyzing these datasets for comparative purposes. This work includes outlining the challenges associated with comparing GPM-CO to CloudSat satellite snow estimates due to the different sampling, algorithms, and instrument capabilities. We will highlight some factors and assumptions that can be altered or statistically normalized and applied in an effort to make comparisons between GPM and CloudSat global satellite falling snow products as equitable as possible.

  1. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  2. Preliminary estimations on the heat recovery method for hydrogen production by the high temperature steam electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Jae Hwa; Yoon, Duck Joo

    2009-01-01

    As a part of the project 'development of hydrogen production technologies by high temperature electrolysis using very high temperature reactor', we have developed an electrolyzer model for high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) system and carried out some preliminary estimations on the effects of heat recovery on the HTSE hydrogen production system. To produce massive hydrogen by using nuclear energy, the HTSE process is one of the promising technologies with sulfur-iodine and hybrid sulfur process. The HTSE produces hydrogen through electrochemical reaction within the solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC), which is a reverse reaction of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). The HTSE system generally operates in the temperature range of 700∼900 .deg. C. Advantages of HTSE hydrogen production are (a) clean hydrogen production from water without carbon oxide emission, (b) synergy effect due to using the current SOFC technology and (c) higher thermal efficiency of system when it is coupled nuclear reactor. Since the HTSE system operates over 700 .deg. C, the use of heat recovery is an important consideration for higher efficiency. In this paper, four different heat recovery configurations for the HTSE system have been investigated and estimated

  3. Estimation of Global Vegetation Productivity from Global LAnd Surface Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Yu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Accurately estimating vegetation productivity is important in research on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycles and climate change. Eight-day gross primary production (GPP and annual net primary production (NPP are contained in MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products (MOD17, which are considered the first operational datasets for monitoring global vegetation productivity. However, the cloud-contaminated MODIS leaf area index (LAI and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR retrievals may introduce some considerable errors to MODIS GPP and NPP products. In this paper, global eight-day GPP and eight-day NPP were first estimated based on Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FPAR products. Then, GPP and NPP estimates were validated by FLUXNET GPP data and BigFoot NPP data and were compared with MODIS GPP and NPP products. Compared with MODIS GPP, a time series showed that estimated GLASS GPP in our study was more temporally continuous and spatially complete with smoother trajectories. Validated with FLUXNET GPP and BigFoot NPP, we demonstrated that estimated GLASS GPP and NPP achieved higher precision for most vegetation types.

  4. Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

    2018-03-01

    Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

  5. Global solar radiation estimation in Lavras region, Minas Gerais

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, A.A.A.; Carvalho, L.G. de; Ferreira, E.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this work was the determination of the ''a'' and '' b'' constants of the Angstrom linear model in order to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. The work was carried out in the Climatological Station of Lavras (ECP/INMET/UFLA), at the Federal University of Lavras, from December 2001 to November 2002, through insolation daily data and global solar radiation daily records. The ''a'' and '' b'' constants, that express the atmospheric transmitance, were obtained by regression analysis of those data. The obtained equation, Qg/Qt = 0,23 + 0,49 presented a determination coefficient of 0,89. The results are smaller than those suggested by the recommendations that uses the local latitude. According to the results, its possible to indicate the values of 0,23 and 0,49 to be used as the ''a'' and '' b'' constants on the Angstrom equation to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. (author) [pt

  6. Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

    2009-04-01

    "Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (< 3%) the additional ozone loss would be rather small (? 10 DU). However, in all cases the full damage would only occur if stratospheric CFC-levels would retain unchanged. Due to the CFC-prohibition as a result of the Montreal Protocol the forecasts suggest a decline of the stratospheric CFC loading about 50% until 2050. In this case our calculations

  7. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Global Carleman estimates for degenerate parabolic operators with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cannarsa, P; Vancostenoble, J

    2016-01-01

    Degenerate parabolic operators have received increasing attention in recent years because they are associated with both important theoretical analysis, such as stochastic diffusion processes, and interesting applications to engineering, physics, biology, and economics. This manuscript has been conceived to introduce the reader to global Carleman estimates for a class of parabolic operators which may degenerate at the boundary of the space domain, in the normal direction to the boundary. Such a kind of degeneracy is relevant to study the invariance of a domain with respect to a given stochastic diffusion flow, and appears naturally in climatology models.

  9. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG. HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates

  10. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampson, Katie; Coudeville, Laurent; Lembo, Tiziana; Sambo, Maganga; Kieffer, Alexia; Attlan, Michaël; Barrat, Jacques; Blanton, Jesse D.; Briggs, Deborah J.; Cleaveland, Sarah; Costa, Peter; Freuling, Conrad M.; Hiby, Elly; Knopf, Lea; Leanes, Fernando; Meslin, François-Xavier; Metlin, Artem; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Müller, Thomas; Nel, Louis H.; Recuenco, Sergio; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Schumacher, Carolin; Taylor, Louise; Vigilato, Marco Antonio Natal; Zinsstag, Jakob; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. Methodology/Principal Findings We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to

  11. HIV due to female sex work: regional and global estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Prüss-Ustün

    Full Text Available Female sex workers (FSWs are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

  12. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  13. Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Hampson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000 human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%, followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20% and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%, with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%, and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%.This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

  14. Estimation of global solar radiation by means of sunshine duration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luis, Mazorra Aguiar; Felipe, Diaz Reyes [Electrical Engineering Dept., Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Univ. (U.L.P.G.C.), Campus Univ. Tafira (Spain); Pilar, Navarro Rivero [Canary Islands Technological Inst. (I.T.C.), Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2008-07-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between global solar irradiation and sunshine duration with different estimation models for the island of Gran Canaria (Spain). These parameters were taken from six measurement stations around the Island, and selected for their reliability and the long period of time they covered. All data used in this paper were handed over by the Canary Islands Technological Institute (I.T.C.). As a first approach, it was decided to study the Angstrom lineal model. In order to improve the knowledge on solar resources, a Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) was created from all daily data. TMY shows differences between southern and northern locations, where Trade Winds generate clouds during the summer months. TMY resumes a data bank much longer than a year in duration, generating the characteristics for a year series of each location, for both irradiation and sunshine duration. To create the TMY, weighted means have been used to smooth high or low values. At first, Angstrom lineal model has been used to estimate solar global irradiation from sunshine duration values, using TMY. But the lineal model didn't reproduce satisfactory results when used to obtain global solar radiation from all daily sunshine duration data. For this reason, different models based in both parameters were used. The parameters estimation of this model was achieved both from TMY daily and monthly series and from all daily data for every location. Because of the weather stability all over the year in the Island, most of the daily data are concentrated in a close range, occasioning a deviation in the lineal equations. To avoid this deviation it was proposed to consider a limit condition data, taking into account values out of the main cloud of data. Additionally, different models were proposed (quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential) to make a regression from all daily data. The best results were obtained with the exponential model proposed in this paper. The

  15. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M; Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million-2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies.

  16. A hydrogen production experiment by the thermo-chemical and electrolytic hybrid hydrogen production in lower temperature range. System viability and preliminary thermal efficiency estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takai, Toshihide; Nakagiri, Toshio; Inagaki, Yoshiyuki

    2008-10-01

    A new experimental apparatus by the thermo-chemical and electrolytic Hybrid-Hydrogen production in Lower Temperature range (HHLT) was developed and hydrogen production experiment was performed to confirm the system operability. Hydrogen production efficiency was estimated and technical problems were clarified through the experimental results. Stable operation of the SO 3 electrolysis cell and the sulfur dioxide solution electrolysis cell were confirmed during experimental operation and any damage which would be affected solid operation was not detected under post operation inspection. To improve hydrogen production efficiency, it was found that the reduction of sulfuric acid circulation and the decrease in the cell voltage were key issues. (author)

  17. Design Tool for Estimating Chemical Hydrogen Storage System Characteristics for Light-Duty Fuel Cell Vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Matthew J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sprik, Samuel [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brooks, Kriston P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Tamburello, David A. [Savannah River National Laboratory

    2018-04-07

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed a vehicle Framework model to simulate fuel cell-based light-duty vehicle operation for various hydrogen storage systems. This transient model simulates the performance of the storage system, fuel cell, and vehicle for comparison to Technical Targets established by DOE for four drive cycles/profiles. Chemical hydrogen storage models have been developed for the Framework for both exothermic and endothermic materials. Despite the utility of such models, they require that material researchers input system design specifications that cannot be estimated easily. To address this challenge, a design tool has been developed that allows researchers to directly enter kinetic and thermodynamic chemical hydrogen storage material properties into a simple sizing module that then estimates system parameters required to run the storage system model. Additionally, the design tool can be used as a standalone executable file to estimate the storage system mass and volume outside of the Framework model. These models will be explained and exercised with the representative hydrogen storage materials exothermic ammonia borane (NH3BH3) and endothermic alane (AlH3).

  18. Design Tool for Estimating Chemical Hydrogen Storage System Characteristics for Light-Duty Fuel Cell Vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooks, Kriston P.; Sprik, Sam; Tamburello, David; Thornton, Matthew

    2018-05-03

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a vehicle framework model to simulate fuel cell-based light-duty vehicle operation for various hydrogen storage systems. This transient model simulates the performance of the storage system, fuel cell, and vehicle for comparison to DOE’s Technical Targets using four drive cycles/profiles. Chemical hydrogen storage models have been developed for the Framework model for both exothermic and endothermic materials. Despite the utility of such models, they require that material researchers input system design specifications that cannot be easily estimated. To address this challenge, a design tool has been developed that allows researchers to directly enter kinetic and thermodynamic chemical hydrogen storage material properties into a simple sizing module that then estimates the systems parameters required to run the storage system model. Additionally, this design tool can be used as a standalone executable file to estimate the storage system mass and volume outside of the framework model and compare it to the DOE Technical Targets. These models will be explained and exercised with existing hydrogen storage materials.

  19. Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

  20. Improved estimates of separation distances to prevent unacceptable damage to nuclear power plant structures from hydrogen detonation for gaseous hydrogen storage. Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-05-01

    This report provides new estimates of separation distances for nuclear power plant gaseous hydrogen storage facilities. Unacceptable damage to plant structures from hydrogen detonations will be prevented by having hydrogen storage facilities meet separation distance criteria recommended in this report. The revised standoff distances are based on improved calculations on hydrogen gas cloud detonations and structural analysis of reinforced concrete structures. Also, the results presented in this study do not depend upon equivalencing a hydrogen detonation to an equivalent TNT detonation. The static and stagnation pressures, wave velocity, and the shock wave impulse delivered to wall surfaces were computed for several different size hydrogen explosions. Separation distance equations were developed and were used to compute the minimum separation distance for six different wall cases and for seven detonating volumes (from 1.59 to 79.67 lbm of hydrogen). These improved calculation results were compared to previous calculations. The ratio between the separation distance predicted in this report versus that predicted for hydrogen detonation in previous calculations varies from 0 to approximately 4. Thus, the separation distances results from the previous calculations can be either overconservative or unconservative depending upon the set of hydrogen detonation parameters that are used. Consequently, it is concluded that the hydrogen-to-TNT detonation equivalency utilized in previous calculations should no longer be used

  1. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  2. Simulation for estimation of hydrogen sulfide scavenger injection dose rate for treatment of crude oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Elshiekh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The presence of hydrogen sulfide in the hydrocarbon fluids is a well known problem in many oil and gas fields. Hydrogen sulfide is an undesirable contaminant which presents many environmental and safety hazards. It is corrosive, malodorous, and toxic. Accordingly, a need has been long left in the industry to develop a process which can successfully remove hydrogen sulfide from the hydrocarbons or at least reduce its level during the production, storage or processing to a level that satisfies safety and product specification requirements. The common method used to remove or reduce the concentration of hydrogen sulfide in the hydrocarbon production fluids is to inject the hydrogen sulfide scavenger into the hydrocarbon stream. One of the chemicals produced by the Egyptian Petroleum Research Institute (EPRI is EPRI H2S scavenger. It is used in some of the Egyptian petroleum producing companies. The injection dose rate of H2S scavenger is usually determined by experimental lab tests and field trials. In this work, this injection dose rate is mathematically estimated by modeling and simulation of an oil producing field belonging to Petrobel Company in Egypt which uses EPRI H2S scavenger. Comparison between the calculated and practical values of injection dose rate emphasizes the real ability of the proposed equation.

  3. Estimation of clear sky hourly global solar radiation in Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Jumaily, Kais J.; Al-Zuhairi, Munya F.; Mahdi, Zahraa S. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

    2012-07-01

    The availability of hourly solar radiation data is very important for applications utilizing solar energy and for climate and environmental aspects. The aim of this work is to use a simple model for estimating hourly global solar radiation under clear sky condition in Iraq. Calculations were compared with measurements obtained from local station in Baghdad city and from Meteosat satellite data for different locations in Iraq. The statistical test methods of the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-test were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results indicated that a fairly good agreement exists between calculated and measured values for all locations in Iraq. Since the model is independent of any meteorological variable, it would be of a practical use for rural areas where no meteorological data are available.

  4. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  5. International Clean Energy System Using Hydrogen Conversion (WE-NET). subtask 3. Study on the global network; Suiso riyo kokusai clean energy system gijutsu (WE-NET). subtask 3. Global network kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    As a part of the WE-NET project, the introduction condition of hydrogen as substituting energy and CO2 reduction effect were analyzed using a global energy model. The WE-NET project aims at global-wide introduction of clean energy by converting abundant renewable clean energy into hydrogen transportable to distant consumers all over the world. The study result in fiscal 1996 is as follows. Undeveloped hydroelectric resources in the world are estimated to be 12 trillion kWh/y equivalent to the existing developed one in the world. Since the cost of the hydroelectric power generation projects over 1000MW in the planning stage is estimated to be 0.02-0.05$/kWh lower than that of other renewable energies, such projects are expected as energy source in the initial stage of the practical WE-NET project. The GREEN model was modified by adding a hydrogen analysis function, and extending an analysis period. The modified model allowed evaluation of the long-term important role of hydrogen energy, in particular, the capability of CO2 gas reduction all over the world. 28 refs., 92 figs., 56 tabs.

  6. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  7. Global estimates of high-level brain drain and deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannidis, John P A

    2004-06-01

    Brain drain, the international migration of scientists in search of better opportunities, has been a long-standing concern, but quantitative measurements are uncommon and limited to specific countries or disciplines. We need to understand brain drain at a global level and estimate the extent to which scientists born in countries with low opportunities never realize their potential. Data on 1523 of the most highly cited scientists for 1981-1999 are analyzed. Overall, 31.9% of these scientists did not reside in the country where they were born (range 18.1-54.6% across 21 different scientific fields). There was great variability across developed countries in the proportions of foreign-born resident scientists and emigrating scientists. Countries without a critical mass of native scientists lost most scientists to migration. This loss occurred in both developed and developing countries. Adjusting for population and using the U.S. as reference, the number of highly cited native-born scientists was at least 75% of the expected number in only 8 countries other than the U.S. It is estimated that approximately 94% of the expected top scientists worldwide have not been able to materialize themselves due to various adverse conditions. Scientific deficit is only likely to help perpetuate these adverse conditions.

  8. Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alvar

    Full Text Available As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see 'Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101'. Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North

  9. Techniques for the estimation of global irradiation from sunshine duration and global irradiation estimation for Italian locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, P.C.

    1984-04-01

    Angstrom equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ) has been fitted using the least-square method to the global irradiation and the sunshine duration data of 31 Italian locations for the duration 1965-1974. Three more linear equations: i) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of the multiple reflections between the earth's surface and the atmosphere, ii) the equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of not burning of the sunshine recorder chart when the elevation of the sun is less than 5 deg., and iii) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating both the above effects simultaneously, have also each been fitted to the same data. Good correlation with correlation coefficients around 0.9 or more are obtained for most of the locations with all the four equations. Substantial spatial scatter is obtained in the values of the regression parameters. The use of any of the three latter equations does not result in any advantage over that of the simpler Angstrom equation; it neither results in a decrease in the spatial scatter in the values of the regression parameters nor does it yield better correlation. The computed values of the regression parameters in the Angstrom equation yield estimates of the global irradiation that are on the average within +- 4% of the measured values for most of the locations. (author)

  10. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  11. The effects of global warming on fisheries: Simulation estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Medel

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops two fisheries models in order to estimate the effect of global warming (GW on firm value. GW is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface as a result of emissions. It is assumed that (i GW exists, and (ii higher temperatures negatively affect biomass. CO2 The literature on biology and GW supporting these two crucial assumptions is reviewed. The main argument presented is that temperature increase has two effects on biomass, both of which have an impact on firm value. First, higher temperatures cause biomass to oscillate. To measure the effect of biomass oscillation on firm value the model in [1] is modified to include water temperature as a variable. The results indicate that a 1 to 20% variation in biomass causes firm value to fall from 6 to 44%, respectively. Second, higher temperatures reduce biomass, and a modification of the model in [2] reveals that an increase in temperature anomaly between +1 and +8°C causes fishing firm value to decrease by 8 to 10%.

  12. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  14. Quantitative estimation of hydrogen concentration on the Ni3Al specimens surface in the process of hydrogen release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katano, Gen; Sano, Shogo; Saito, Hideo; Mori, Minoru

    2000-01-01

    The method to calculate the hydrogen concentration in metal specimens is given by tritium counts with the liquid scintillation counter. As segments to measure, Ni 3 Al intermetallic compound crystals were used. Tritium was charged to crystals with the method of cathode charging. The charged tritium was transported by diffusion and released from specimen surface. The tritium releasing rate was calculated from the increasing rate of tritium activity. Then the concentration of hydrogen at the surface was calculated from tritium counts. The outcome showed that the hydrogen concentration decreases at specimens surface by elapsed time. Then, the behavior of tritium diffusion was affected by doped boron (up to 0.235 atom% B and 0.470 atom% B) in Ni 3 Al crystals. As the amount of boron increased, the tritium diffusion coefficient decreased. And the hydrogen concentration varied with the amount of boron. After passing enough time, the hydrogen concentration in crystals with boron was much larger than the one without boron. Since it is very likely that the hydrogen concentration is affected by the number of hydrogen sites in the crystal, it is obvious judging by these phenomena, that by doping boron, numbers of hydrogen trapping sites were created. As the hydrogen distribution becomes homogenous after passing enough time, it is possible to measure the hydrogen concentration in all the crystals from β-ray counts at specimens surface. (author)

  15. Hydrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bockris, John O'M

    2011-11-30

    The idea of a "Hydrogen Economy" is that carbon containing fuels should be replaced by hydrogen, thus eliminating air pollution and growth of CO₂ in the atmosphere. However, storage of a gas, its transport and reconversion to electricity doubles the cost of H₂ from the electrolyzer. Methanol made with CO₂ from the atmosphere is a zero carbon fuel created from inexhaustible components from the atmosphere. Extensive work on the splitting of water by bacteria shows that if wastes are used as the origin of feed for certain bacteria, the cost for hydrogen becomes lower than any yet known. The first creation of hydrogen and electricity from light was carried out in 1976 by Ohashi et al. at Flinders University in Australia. Improvements in knowledge of the structure of the semiconductor-solution system used in a solar breakdown of water has led to the discovery of surface states which take part in giving rise to hydrogen (Khan). Photoelectrocatalysis made a ten times increase in the efficiency of the photo production of hydrogen from water. The use of two electrode cells; p and n semiconductors respectively, was first introduced by Uosaki in 1978. Most photoanodes decompose during the photoelectrolysis. To avoid this, it has been necessary to create a transparent shield between the semiconductor and its electronic properties and the solution. In this way, 8.5% at 25 °C and 9.5% at 50 °C has been reached in the photo dissociation of water (GaP and InAs) by Kainthla and Barbara Zeleney in 1989. A large consortium has been funded by the US government at the California Institute of Technology under the direction of Nathan Lewis. The decomposition of water by light is the main aim of this group. Whether light will be the origin of the post fossil fuel supply of energy may be questionable, but the maximum program in this direction is likely to come from Cal. Tech.

  16. South Africa's opportunity to maximise the role of nuclear power in a global hydrogen economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greyvenstein, R. [Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) (Pty) Ltd. (South Africa)], E-mail: renee.greyvenstein@pbmr.co.za; Correia, M. [Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) (Pty) Ltd. (South Africa)], E-mail: michael.correia@pbmr.co.za; Kriel, W. [Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) (Pty) Ltd. (South Africa)], E-mail: willem.kriel@pbmr.us

    2008-11-15

    Global concern for increased energy demand, increased cost of natural gas and petroleum, energy security and environmental degradation are leading to heightened interest in using nuclear energy and hydrogen to leverage existing hydrocarbon reserves. The wasteful use of hydrocarbons can be minimised by using nuclear as a source of energy and water as a source of hydrogen. Virtually all hydrogen today is produced from fossil fuels, which give rise to CO{sub 2} emissions. Hydrogen can be cleanly produced from water (without CO{sub 2} pollution) by using nuclear energy to generate the required electricity and/or process heat to split the water molecule. Once the clean hydrogen has been produced, it can be used as feedstock to fuel cell technologies, or in the nearer term as feedstock to a coal-to-liquids process to produce cleaner synthetic liquid fuels. Clean liquid fuels from coal - using hydrogen generated from nuclear energy - is an intermediate step for using hydrogen to reduce pollution in the transport sector; simultaneously addressing energy security concerns. Several promising water-splitting technologies have been identified. Thermo-chemical water-splitting and high-temperature steam electrolysis technologies require process temperatures in the range of 850 deg. C and higher for the efficient production of hydrogen. The pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR), under development in South Africa, is ideally suited to generate both high-temperature process heat and electricity for the production of hydrogen. This paper will discuss South Africa's opportunity to maximise the use of its nuclear technology and national resources in a global hydrogen economy.

  17. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate black carbon (BC model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model

  18. Hardware architecture design of a fast global motion estimation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chaobing; Sang, Hongshi; Shen, Xubang

    2015-12-01

    VLSI implementation of gradient-based global motion estimation (GME) faces two main challenges: irregular data access and high off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. We previously proposed a fast GME method that reduces computational complexity by choosing certain number of small patches containing corners and using them in a gradient-based framework. A hardware architecture is designed to implement this method and further reduce off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. On-chip memories are used to store coordinates of the corners and template patches, while the Gaussian pyramids of both the template and reference frame are stored in off-chip SDRAMs. By performing geometric transform only on the coordinates of the center pixel of a 3-by-3 patch in the template image, a 5-by-5 area containing the warped 3-by-3 patch in the reference image is extracted from the SDRAMs by burst read. Patched-based and burst mode data access helps to keep the off-chip memory bandwidth requirement at the minimum. Although patch size varies at different pyramid level, all patches are processed in term of 3x3 patches, so the utilization of the patch-processing circuit reaches 100%. FPGA implementation results show that the design utilizes 24,080 bits on-chip memory and for a sequence with resolution of 352x288 and frequency of 60Hz, the off-chip bandwidth requirement is only 3.96Mbyte/s, compared with 243.84Mbyte/s of the original gradient-based GME method. This design can be used in applications like video codec, video stabilization, and super-resolution, where real-time GME is a necessity and minimum memory bandwidth requirement is appreciated.

  19. Global analysis and parametric dependencies for potential unintended hydrogen-fuel releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harstad, Kenneth; Bellan, Josette [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, M/S 125-109, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099 (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Global, simplified analyses of gaseous-hydrogen releases from a high-pressure vessel and liquid-hydrogen pools are conducted for two purposes: (1) establishing order-of-magnitude values of characteristic times and (2) determining parametric dependencies of these characteristic times on the physical properties of the configuration and on the thermophysical properties of hydrogen. According to the ratio of the characteristic release time to the characteristic mixing time, two limiting configurations are identified: (1) a rich cloud exists when this ratio is much smaller than unity, and (2) a jet exists when this ratio is much larger than unity. In all cases, it is found that the characteristic release time is proportional to the total released mass and inversely proportional to a characteristic area. The approximate size, convection velocity, and circulation time of unconfined burning-cloud releases scale with the cloud mass at powers 1/3, 1/6, and 1/6, respectively, multiplied by an appropriately dimensional constant; the influence of cross flow can only be important if its velocity exceeds that of internal convection. It is found that the fireball lifetime is approximately the maximum of the release time and thrice the convection-associated characteristic time. Transition from deflagration to detonation can occur only if the size of unconfined clouds exceeds by a factor of O(10) that of a characteristic detonation cell, which ranges from 0.015 m under stoichiometric conditions to approximately 1 m under extreme rich/lean conditions. For confined vapor pockets, transition occurs only for pocket sizes larger than the cell size. In jets, the release time is inversely proportional to the initial vessel pressure and has a square root dependence on the vessel temperature. Jet velocities are a factor of 10 larger than convective velocities in fireballs and combustion is possible only in the subsonic, downstream region where entrainment may occur.

  20. Hydrogen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John O’M. Bockris

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The idea of a “Hydrogen Economy” is that carbon containing fuels should be replaced by hydrogen, thus eliminating air pollution and growth of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, storage of a gas, its transport and reconversion to electricity doubles the cost of H2 from the electrolyzer. Methanol made with CO2 from the atmosphere is a zero carbon fuel created from inexhaustible components from the atmosphere. Extensive work on the splitting of water by bacteria shows that if wastes are used as the origin of feed for certain bacteria, the cost for hydrogen becomes lower than any yet known. The first creation of hydrogen and electricity from light was carried out in 1976 by Ohashi et al. at Flinders University in Australia. Improvements in knowledge of the structure of the semiconductor-solution system used in a solar breakdown of water has led to the discovery of surface states which take part in giving rise to hydrogen (Khan. Photoelectrocatalysis made a ten times increase in the efficiency of the photo production of hydrogen from water. The use of two electrode cells; p and n semiconductors respectively, was first introduced by Uosaki in 1978. Most photoanodes decompose during the photoelectrolysis. To avoid this, it has been necessary to create a transparent shield between the semiconductor and its electronic properties and the solution. In this way, 8.5% at 25 °C and 9.5% at 50 °C has been reached in the photo dissociation of water (GaP and InAs by Kainthla and Barbara Zeleney in 1989. A large consortium has been funded by the US government at the California Institute of Technology under the direction of Nathan Lewis. The decomposition of water by light is the main aim of this group. Whether light will be the origin of the post fossil fuel supply of energy may be questionable, but the maximum program in this direction is likely to come from Cal. Tech.

  1. Estimating Solar Energy Potential in Buildings on a Global Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrichenko, Ksenia

    2015-01-01

    This chapter contributes to the debate around net-zero energy concept from a global perspective. By means of comprehensive modelling, it analyses how much global building energy consumption could be reduced through utilisation of building-integrated solar energy technologies and energy......-efficiency improvements. Valuable insights on the locations and building types, in which it is feasible to achieve a net-zero level of energy performance through solar energy utilisation, are presented in world maps....

  2. Estimating Global Cropland Extent with Multi-year MODIS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher O. Justice

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the suitability of 250 m MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for mapping global cropland extent. A set of 39 multi-year MODIS metrics incorporating four MODIS land bands, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and thermal data was employed to depict cropland phenology over the study period. Sub-pixel training datasets were used to generate a set of global classification tree models using a bagging methodology, resulting in a global per-pixel cropland probability layer. This product was subsequently thresholded to create a discrete cropland/non-cropland indicator map using data from the USDA-FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD database describing per-country acreage of production field crops. Five global land cover products, four of which attempted to map croplands in the context of multiclass land cover classifications, were subsequently used to perform regional evaluations of the global MODIS cropland extent map. The global probability layer was further examined with reference to four principle global food crops: corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Overall results indicate that the MODIS layer best depicts regions of intensive broadleaf crop production (corn and soybean, both in correspondence with existing maps and in associated high probability matching thresholds. Probability thresholds for wheat-growing regions were lower, while areas of rice production had the lowest associated confidence. Regions absent of agricultural intensification, such as Africa, are poorly characterized regardless of crop type. The results reflect the value of MODIS as a generic global cropland indicator for intensive agriculture production regions, but with little sensitivity in areas of low agricultural intensification. Variability in mapping accuracies between areas dominated by different crop types also points to the desirability of a crop-specific approach rather than attempting

  3. Estimates of the price of hydrogen as a medium for wind and solar sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bockris, John O'M.; Veziroglu, T. Nejat

    2007-01-01

    The rejection of hydrogen as a solution to global warming by becoming the medium of wind and solar was made when gasoline was priced at $1/gallon. From wind, H 2 would now cost (by electrolysis of water and steam) less than $3 for an amount equivalent in energy to that in a gallon of gasoline ('equivalent'). From solar photovoltaics (pv), H 2 would be sinking in price between $8 toward $5 equivalent as the efficiency of solar pv increases toward 20%. Solar thermal's present prices offer about one-half the solar pv prices. Prediction of the maximum of the delivery rate of world oil is [Laherre's Oil Production Forecast, 1950-2150. Reprinted with permission from correspondence with William Horvath, U.S. Department of Energy, March 29, 2001] 2010. Future energy sources will develop inexhaustible energies from wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and wave sources. The common media will be hydrogen and electricity. These sources yield energy at around one-half the cost of nuclear fission. Growing corn to make alcohol involves a net loss of energy and need for a heating mechanism. It may increase the Greenhouse. (author)

  4. Performance of Sayigh's universal formula in the estimation of global solar radiation in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    The performance of Sayigh's universal formula for the estimation of global solar radiation is tested against that of Angstrom-Black model for 13 stations in Ghana, using monthly mean daily global solar radiation averaged over the years 1957-1981. Sayigh's model is found not to perform as credibility as the Angstrom-Black model in the estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Ghana. Of the 156 values of monthly global solar radiation estimated by Sayigh's model, 123 (or 78.8%) had discrepancies of more than 10% with the measured values. The corresponding value for the Angstrom-Black model was 7 (or 4.5%). (author). 5 refs

  5. Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

  6. Impact of Galileo on Global Ionosphere Map Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Undetermined, U.

    2006-01-01

    The upcoming GNSS Galileo, with its new satellite geometry and frequency plan, will not only bring many benefits for navigation and positioning but also help to improve ionosphere delay estimation. This paper investigates ionosphere estimation with Galileo and compares it with the results from

  7. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  8. Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

    2017-09-01

    Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional

  9. Saving lives in health: global estimates and country measurement.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Low-Beer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Daniel Low-Beer and colleagues provide a response from The Global Fund on the PLOS Medicine article by David McCoy and colleagues critiquing their lives saved assessment models. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  10. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  11. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  12. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  13. Exergoeconomic estimates for a novel zero-emission process generating hydrogen and electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsatsaronis, George; Kapanke, Kerstin; Maria Blanco Marigorta, Ana

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the exergoeconomic analysis of a novel process generating electric energy and hydrogen. Coal and high-temperature heat are used as input energy to the process. The process is a true 'zero-emission process' because (a) no NO X is formed during coal combustion with sulfuric acid, and (b) the combustion products CO 2 and SO 2 are removed separately as compressed liquids from the overall process. The process cycle is based on two chemical reactions. The first reaction takes place in an electrolytic cell and delivers the hydrogen product. In the second step, coal reacts with sulfuric acid in a high-pressure combustion reactor. The combustion gas is expanded in a gas turbine to produce electric power. The combustion products are compressed and separated so that almost pure CO 2 can be removed from the cycle. The overall process is characterized by very high energetic and exergetic efficiencies. However, the overall process is very capital intensive. The electrolytic cell dominates the costs associated with the overall process. Detailed results of the thermodynamic simulation, the economic and the exergoeconomic analyses of the process including estimates of the product costs are presented

  14. Hydrogen emissions and their effects on the arctic ozone losses. Risk analysis of a global hydrogen economy; Wasserstoff-Emissionen und ihre Auswirkungen auf den arktischen Ozonverlust. Risikoanalyse einer globalen Wasserstoffwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feck, Thomas

    2009-07-01

    Hydrogen (H{sub 2}) could be used as one of the major components in our future energy supply in an effort to avoid greenhouse gas emissions. ''Green'' hydrogen in particular, which is produced from renewable energy sources, should significantly reduce emissions that damage the climate. Despite this basically environmentally-friendly property, however, the complex chain of interactions of hydrogen with other compounds means that the implications for the atmosphere must be analysed in detail. For example, H{sub 2} emissions, which could increase the tropospheric H{sub 2} inventory, can be released throughout the complete hydrogen process chain. H{sub 2} enters the stratosphere via the tropical tropopause and is oxidised there to form water vapour (H{sub 2}O). This extra water vapour causes increased radiation in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum and thus causes the stratosphere to cool down. Both the increase in H{sub 2}O and the resulting cooling down of the stratosphere encourage the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) and liquid sulphate aerosols, which facilitate the production of reactive chlorine, which in turn currently leads to dramatic ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere. In the future, H{sub 2} emissions from a global hydrogen economy could therefore encourage stratospheric ozone depletion in the polar regions and thus inhibit the ozone layer in recovering from the damage caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). In addition to estimating possible influences on the trace gas composition of the stratosphere, one of the main aims of this thesis is to evaluate the risk associated with increased polar ozone depletion caused by additional H{sub 2} emissions. Studies reported on here have shown that even if around 90% of today's fossil primary energy input was to be replaced by hydrogen and if around 9.5% of the gas was to escape in a ''worst-case'' scenario, the additional ozone loss for unchanged CFC loading in the stratosphere

  15. Hydrogen emissions and their effects on the arctic ozone losses. Risk analysis of a global hydrogen economy; Wasserstoff-Emissionen und ihre Auswirkungen auf den arktischen Ozonverlust. Risikoanalyse einer globalen Wasserstoffwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feck, Thomas

    2009-07-01

    Hydrogen (H{sub 2}) could be used as one of the major components in our future energy supply in an effort to avoid greenhouse gas emissions. ''Green'' hydrogen in particular, which is produced from renewable energy sources, should significantly reduce emissions that damage the climate. Despite this basically environmentally-friendly property, however, the complex chain of interactions of hydrogen with other compounds means that the implications for the atmosphere must be analysed in detail. For example, H{sub 2} emissions, which could increase the tropospheric H{sub 2} inventory, can be released throughout the complete hydrogen process chain. H{sub 2} enters the stratosphere via the tropical tropopause and is oxidised there to form water vapour (H{sub 2}O). This extra water vapour causes increased radiation in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum and thus causes the stratosphere to cool down. Both the increase in H{sub 2}O and the resulting cooling down of the stratosphere encourage the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) and liquid sulphate aerosols, which facilitate the production of reactive chlorine, which in turn currently leads to dramatic ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere. In the future, H{sub 2} emissions from a global hydrogen economy could therefore encourage stratospheric ozone depletion in the polar regions and thus inhibit the ozone layer in recovering from the damage caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). In addition to estimating possible influences on the trace gas composition of the stratosphere, one of the main aims of this thesis is to evaluate the risk associated with increased polar ozone depletion caused by additional H{sub 2} emissions. Studies reported on here have shown that even if around 90% of today's fossil primary energy input was to be replaced by hydrogen and if around 9.5% of the gas was to escape in a ''worst-case'' scenario, the additional ozone loss for

  16. Estimation of effect of hydrogen on the parameters of magnetoacoustic emission signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skalskyi, Valentyn; Stankevych, Olena; Dubytskyi, Olexandr

    2018-05-01

    The features of the magnetoacoustic emission (MAE) signals during magnetization of structural steels with the different degree of hydrogenating were investigated by the wavelet transform. The dominant frequency ranges of MAE signals for the different magnetic field strength were determined using Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the energy and spectral parameters of MAE signals were determined using Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). The characteristic differences of the local maximums of signals according to energy, bandwidth, duration and frequency were found. The methodology of estimation of state of local degradation of materials by parameters of wavelet transform of MAE signals was proposed. This methodology was approbated for investigate of state of long-time exploitations structural steels of oil and gas pipelines.

  17. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  18. Empirical Method to Estimate Hydrogen Embrittlement of Metals as a Function of Hydrogen Gas Pressure at Constant Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jonathan A.

    2010-01-01

    High pressure Hydrogen (H) gas has been known to have a deleterious effect on the mechanical properties of certain metals, particularly, the notched tensile strength, fracture toughness and ductility. The ratio of these properties in Hydrogen as compared to Helium or Air is called the Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement (HEE) Index, which is a useful method to classify the severity of H embrittlement and to aid in the material screening and selection for safety usage H gas environment. A comprehensive world-wide database compilation, in the past 50 years, has shown that the HEE index is mostly collected at two conveniently high H pressure points of 5 ksi and 10 ksi near room temperature. Since H embrittlement is directly related to pressure, the lack of HEE index at other pressure points has posed a technical problem for the designers to select appropriate materials at a specific H pressure for various applications in aerospace, alternate and renewable energy sectors for an emerging hydrogen economy. Based on the Power-Law mathematical relationship, an empirical method to accurately predict the HEE index, as a function of H pressure at constant temperature, is presented with a brief review on Sievert's law for gas-metal absorption.

  19. Phase estimation for global defocus correction in optical coherence tomography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mikkel; Israelsen, Niels Møller; Podoleanu, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization......, and sub-aperture correlations. The estimated phase of a single en-face image is used to extrapolate the non-linear phase at all depths, whichin the end can be used to correct the entire 3-D tomogram, and any other tomogram from the same system.......In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization...

  20. The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogo, César; Brandão, João

    2014-06-30

    READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Estimation of radiation hazard of global 85Kr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilenko, I.Ya.; Moskalev, Yu.I.; Istomina, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    The data on sources and levels of the 85 Kr biosphere contamination are presented on the basis of generalization and analysis of literature. The potential irradiation doses for people are calculated and the biological estimation of the hazard of 85 Kr accumulation in the atmosphere up to 2050 is given taking into account the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering. The basis of the estimation is the radionuclide blastomogeneous and genetic effect. The conclusion is made that the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering do not lead to any sufficient increase in the number of malignant tumors and genetic abnormalities caused by 85 Kr radiation comparing with their natural frequency

  2. Global weighted estimates for second-order nondivergence elliptic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Fengping Yao

    2018-03-21

    Mar 21, 2018 ... One of the key a priori estimates in the theory of second-order elliptic .... It is well known that the maximal functions satisfy strong p–p .... Here we prove the following auxiliary result, which will be a crucial ingredient in the proof.

  3. estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for warri

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o. 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  4. Estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for Warri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  5. OPTIMIZATION OF SPECIFIC FUEL CONSUMPTION OF HYDROGEN IN COMMERCIAL TURBOFANS FOR REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Hikmet Karakoc; Onder Turan [School of Civil Aviation, Anadolu University, Eskisehir (Turkey)

    2008-09-30

    The main objective of the present study is to perform minimizing specific fuel consumption of a non afterburning high bypass turbofan engine with separate exhaust streams and unmixed flow for reducing global effect. The values of engine design parameters are optimized for maintaining minimum specific fuel consumption of high bypass turbofan engine under different flight conditions, different fuel types and design criteria. The backbones of optimization approach consisted of elitism-based genetic algorithm coupled with real parametric cycle analysis of a turbofan engine. For solving optimization problem a new software program is developed in MATLAB programming language, while objective function is determined for minimizing the specific fuel consumption. The input variables included the compressor pressure ratio ({pi}{sub c}), bypass ratio ({alpha}) and the fuel heating value [h{sub PR}-(kJ/kg)]. Hydrogen was selected as fuel type in real parametric cycle analysis of commercial turbofans. It may be concluded that the software program developed can successfully solve optimization problems at 10{le}{pi}{sub c}{le}20, 2{le}{alpha}{le}10 and h{sub PR} 120,000 with aircraft flight Mach number {le}0.8.

  6. Comparison of two global digital algorithms for Minkowski tensor estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The geometry of real world objects can be described by Minkowski tensors. Algorithms have been suggested to approximate Minkowski tensors if only a binary image of the object is available. This paper presents implementations of two such algorithms. The theoretical convergence properties...... are confirmed by simulations on test sets, and recommendations for input arguments of the algorithms are given. For increasing resolutions, we obtain more accurate estimators for the Minkowski tensors. Digitisations of more complicated objects are shown to require higher resolutions....

  7. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  8. Estimation of Subdaily Polar Motion with the Global Positioning System During the Spoch '92 Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibanez-Meier, R.; Freedman, A. P.; Herring, T. A.; Gross, R. S.; Lichten, S. M.; Lindqwister, U. J.

    1994-01-01

    Data collected over six days from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking network during the Epoch '92 campaign are used to estimate variations of the Earth's pole position every 30 minutes.

  9. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in

  10. Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

    2004-01-01

    At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

  11. Distancing from experienced self: how global versus local perception affects estimation of psychological distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liberman, N.; Förster, J.

    2009-01-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition).

  12. Substituent effects in heterogeneous catalysis--4. Adsorption estimations during competitive hydrogenation of cyclohexanone and its 2-alkyl derivatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chihara, T; Tanaka, K

    1979-02-01

    Adsorption estimations during competitive hydrogenation of cyclohexanone and its 2-alkyl derivatives alumina-supported ruthenium, rhodium, and platinum catalysts were obtained in a study to determine the relative contributions of the rate constants and the adsorption equilibrium constants to the substituent-dependent constant. The reaction rates obtained during competitive hydrogenation were in the order cyclohexanone (A) Vertical Bar3:Vertical Bar3: 2-methyl cyclohexanone (B) Vertical Bar3: 2-ethyl cyclohexanone (C) Vertical Bar3: 2-propyl cyclohexanone (D) for all catalysts, whereas the rates obtained during individual hydrogenation were in the order A Vertical Bar3: B approx. C approx. D. The adsorption equilibrium constants which were estimated by analyzing the kinetic data agreed well with the theoretical values derived from statistical mechanics by using a model in which the substrate ketones were immobilely adsorbed.

  13. Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine A Bliss

    Full Text Available Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

  14. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  15. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  16. Estimating the Cross-Shelf Export of Riverine Materials: Part 2. Estimates of Global Freshwater and Nutrient Export

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izett, Jonathan G.; Fennel, Katja

    2018-02-01

    Rivers deliver large amounts of fresh water, nutrients, and other terrestrially derived materials to the coastal ocean. Where inputs accumulate on the shelf, harmful effects such as hypoxia and eutrophication can result. In contrast, where export to the open ocean is efficient riverine inputs contribute to global biogeochemical budgets. Assessing the fate of riverine inputs is difficult on a global scale. Global ocean models are generally too coarse to resolve the relatively small scale features of river plumes. High-resolution regional models have been developed for individual river plume systems, but it is impractical to apply this approach globally to all rivers. Recently, generalized parameterizations have been proposed to estimate the export of riverine fresh water to the open ocean (Izett & Fennel, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667; Sharples et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005483). Here the relationships of Izett and Fennel, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667 are used to derive global estimates of open-ocean export of fresh water and dissolved inorganic silicate, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen. We estimate that only 15-53% of riverine fresh water reaches the open ocean directly in river plumes; nutrient export is even less efficient because of processing on continental shelves. Due to geographic differences in riverine nutrient delivery, dissolved silicate is the most efficiently exported to the open ocean (7-56.7%), while dissolved inorganic nitrogen is the least efficiently exported (2.8-44.3%). These results are consistent with previous estimates and provide a simple way to parameterize export to the open ocean in global models.

  17. Global transcriptome profile of Cryptococcus neoformans during exposure to hydrogen peroxide induced oxidative stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra Upadhya

    Full Text Available The ability of the opportunistic fungal pathogen Cryptococcus neoformans to resist oxidative stress is one of its most important virulence related traits. To cope with the deleterious effect of cellular damage caused by the oxidative burst inside the macrophages, C. neoformans has developed multilayered redundant molecular responses to neutralize the stress, to repair the damage and to eventually grow inside the hostile environment of the phagosome. We used microarray analysis of cells treated with hydrogen peroxide (H(2O(2 at multiple time points in a nutrient defined medium to identify a transcriptional signature associated with oxidative stress. We discovered that the composition of the medium in which fungal cells were grown and treated had a profound effect on their capacity to degrade exogenous H(2O(2. We determined the kinetics of H(2O(2 breakdown by growing yeast cells under different conditions and accordingly selected an appropriate media composition and range of time points for isolating RNA for hybridization. Microarray analysis revealed a robust transient transcriptional response and the intensity of the global response was consistent with the kinetics of H(2O(2 breakdown by treated cells. Gene ontology analysis of differentially expressed genes related to oxidation-reduction, metabolic process and protein catabolic processes identified potential roles of mitochondrial function and protein ubiquitination in oxidative stress resistance. Interestingly, the metabolic pathway adaptation of C. neoformans to H(2O(2 treatment was remarkably distinct from the response of other fungal organisms to oxidative stress. We also identified the induction of an antifungal drug resistance response upon the treatment of C. neoformans with H(2O(2. These results highlight the complexity of the oxidative stress response and offer possible new avenues for improving our understanding of mechanisms of oxidative stress resistance in C. neoformans.

  18. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew R Smith

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against

  19. Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul K.

    Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

  20. Diffusion of helium and estimated diffusion coefficients of hydrogen dissolved in water-saturated, compacted Ca-montmorillonite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higashihara, Tomohiro; Sato, Seichi; Ohashi, Hiroshi; Otsuka, Teppei

    2001-01-01

    The diffusion coefficients of hydrogen gas dissolved in water-saturated, compacted montmorillonite are required to estimate the performance of bentonite buffer materials for geological disposal of nuclear waste. As part of the effort to determine the diffusion coefficients, the diffusion coefficients of helium in water-saturated, compacted calcium montmorillonite (Ca-montmorillonite) were determined as a function of dry density, 0.78 to 1.37x10 3 kg m -3 , by a transient diffusion method. The diffusion coefficients were from 8.3x10 -10 m 2 s -1 at 0.78x10 3 kgm -3 to 2.8x10 -10 m 2 s -1 at 1.37x10 3 kgm -3 . The data obtained by this diffusion experiment of helium were highly reproducible. The diffusion coefficients of helium in Ca-montmorillonite were somewhat larger than those previously obtained for helium in sodium montmorillonite (Na-montmorillonite). The diffusion coefficients of hydrogen gas in the montmorillonites were roughly estimated using the diffusion coefficients of helium. These estimates were based on assumptions that both helium and hydrogen molecules are non-adsorptive and that the geometric factors in the compacted montmorillonites are approximately the same for diffusion of helium and diffusion of hydrogen. (author)

  1. Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon I Hay

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, and Myanmar (Burma, where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked

  2. Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotopes of Precipitation in a Rocky Mountainous Area of Beijing to Distinguish and Estimate Spring Recharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziqiang Liu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were used to estimate seasonal contributions of precipitation to natural spring recharge in Beijing’s mountainous area. Isotopic compositions were shown to be more positive in the dry season and more negative in the wet season, due to the seasonal patterns in the amount of precipitation. The local meteoric water line (LMWL was δ2H = 7.0 δ18O − 2.3 for the dry season and δ2H = 5.9 δ18O − 10.4 for the wet season. LMWL in the two seasons had a lower slope and intercept than the Global Meteoric Water Line (p < 0.01. The slope and intercept of the LMWL in the wet season were lower than that in the dry season because of the effect of precipitation amount during the wet season (p < 0.01. The mean precipitation effects of −15‰ and −2‰ per 100 mm change in the amount of precipitation for δ2H and δ18O, respectively, were obtained from the monthly total precipitation and its average isotopic value. The isotopic composition of precipitation decreased when precipitation duration increased. Little changes in the isotopic composition of the natural spring were found. By employing isotope conservation of mass, it could be derived that, on average, approximately 7.2% of the natural spring came from the dry season precipitation and the rest of 92.8% came from the wet season precipitation.

  3. Estimating Hydrogen Production Potential in Biorefineries Using Microbial Electrolysis Cell Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borole, Abhijeet P [ORNL; Mielenz, Jonathan R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) are devices that use a hybrid biocatalysis-electrolysis process for production of hydrogen from organic matter. Future biofuel and bioproducts industries are expected to generate significant volumes of waste streams containing easily degradable organic matter. The emerging MEC technology has potential to derive added- value from these waste streams via production of hydrogen. Biorefinery process streams, particularly the stillage or distillation bottoms contain underutilized sugars as well as fermentation and pretreatment byproducts. In a lignocellulosic biorefinery designed for producing 70 million gallons of ethanol per year, up to 7200 m3/hr of hydrogen can be generated. The hydrogen can either be used as an energy source or a chemical reagent for upgrading and other reactions. The energy content of the hydrogen generated is sufficient to meet 57% of the distillation energy needs. We also report on the potential for hydrogen production in existing corn mills and sugar-based biorefineries. Removal of the organics from stillage has potential to facilitate water recycle. Pretreatment and fermentation byproducts generated in lignocellulosic biorefinery processes can accumulate to highly inhibitory levels in the process streams, if water is recycled. The byproducts of concern including sugar- and lignin- degradation products such as furans and phenolics can also be converted to hydrogen in MECs. We evaluate hydrogen production from various inhibitory byproducts generated during pretreatment of various types of biomass. Finally, the research needs for development of the MEC technology and aspects particularly relevant to the biorefineries are discussed.

  4. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  5. Project of CO{sub 2} fixation and utilization using catalytic hydrogenation reaction for coping with the global environment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Discussions were given on a carbon dioxide fixing and utilizing project utilizing hydrogenating reaction by means of a catalytic method. In the discussions, development was made on such foundation technologies as CO2 separation by using Cardo type CO2 membrane, a technology to synthesize methanol through hydrogen addition by means of the catalytic method, and an electrolytic technology of membrane-electrode mixed type, as well as a methanol synthesis bench test of 50 kg/d scale. In order to develop this result into specific applications, demonstration tests are required that use methanol synthesizing pilot plants of 4 t/d and 80 t/d capacities. In addition, for the electric power to produce a huge amount of hydrogen, development is necessary on a solar energy utilizing technology of large scale and low cost. Furthermore, from the economic and social viewpoints, the achievements of this project are regarded to depend on understanding of the necessity of a policy of putting a large number of methanol fuel cell automobiles into use, and dealing with the global warming problem. Energy required to change CO2 into useful chemical substance requires five times as much energy as has been produced, hence prevention of the global warming through this channel is difficult. (NEDO)

  6. Unified force and its relation with global warming crave for hydrogen energy and promote fuel cell technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is presently a tremendous public interest and has become a threat to every individual. Huge quantities of CO/sub 2/ are emitted to the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity in power plants and burning of gasoline in aeroplanes and vehicles. Enormous amount of greenhouse gasses are sent into the air when garbage is burnt in landfills. Cutting down of trees and other plants which collect CO/sub 2/ a greenhouse gas which is inhaled and which gives back oxygen which is exhaled makes global warming worse. 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is also known as Unified Force is also related with global warming which is proportional to increase of H/sub 2/O level in sea and causes floods, storms, droughts and severe impacts to the environment and society. In order to better understand global warming and its relation with Unified Force, this paper discusses the cause and effect system on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and also the other green house gases like CH/sub 4/, water vapour, NOx etc. and emphasis its importance to focus on crave for Hydrogen Energy and to promote Fuel Cell technology to keep the earth green and safer from the impacts of global warming. The benefit of switching from fossil fuels to Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell technology reduces the impact of global warming, elimination of pollution caused by fossil fuels and greenhouse gases, economic dependence and distributed production. (author)

  7. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  8. Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guihua; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P. Y.

    Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air quality

  9. Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guihua Wang; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P.Y.

    2007-01-01

    Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x ) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air

  10. Economic analysis of hydrogen production through a bio-ethanol steam reforming process: Sensitivity analyses and cost estimations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Hua; Ozkan, Umit S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the hydrogen selling price from ethanol steam reforming has been estimated for two different production scenarios in the United States, i.e. central production (150,000 kg H 2 /day) and distributed (forecourt) production (1500 kg H 2 /day), based on a process flowchart generated by Aspen Plus registered including downstream purification steps and economic analysis model template published by the U.S Department of Energy (DOE). The effect of several processing parameters as well as catalyst properties on the hydrogen selling price has been evaluated. 2.69/kg is estimated as the selling price for a central production process of 150,000 kg H 2 /day and 4.27/kg for a distributed hydrogen production process at a scale of 1500 kg H 2 /day. Among the parameters investigated through sensitivity analyses, ethanol feedstock cost, catalyst cost, and catalytic performance are found to play a significant role on determining the final hydrogen selling price. (author)

  11. Numerical estimation of ultrasonic production of hydrogen: Effect of ideal and real gas based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerboua, Kaouther; Hamdaoui, Oualid

    2018-01-01

    Based on two different assumptions regarding the equation describing the state of the gases within an acoustic cavitation bubble, this paper studies the sonochemical production of hydrogen, through two numerical models treating the evolution of a chemical mechanism within a single bubble saturated with oxygen during an oscillation cycle in water. The first approach is built on an ideal gas model, while the second one is founded on Van der Waals equation, and the main objective was to analyze the effect of the considered state equation on the ultrasonic hydrogen production retrieved by simulation under various operating conditions. The obtained results show that even when the second approach gives higher values of temperature, pressure and total free radicals production, yield of hydrogen does not follow the same trend. When comparing the results released by both models regarding hydrogen production, it was noticed that the ratio of the molar amount of hydrogen is frequency and acoustic amplitude dependent. The use of Van der Waals equation leads to higher quantities of hydrogen under low acoustic amplitude and high frequencies, while employing ideal gas law based model gains the upper hand regarding hydrogen production at low frequencies and high acoustic amplitudes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Distancing from experienced self: how global-versus-local perception affects estimation of psychological distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, Nira; Förster, Jens

    2009-08-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition). Relative to the control condition, global processing made participants estimate larger psychological distances in time (Study 1), space (Study 2), social distance (Study 3), and hypotheticality (Study 4). Local processing had the opposite effect. Consistent with CLT, all studies show that the effect of global-versus-local processing did emerge when participants estimated egocentric distances, which are distances from the experienced self in the here and now, but did not emerge with temporal distances not from now (Study 1), spatial distances not from here (Study 2), social distances not from the self (Study 3), or hypothetical events that did not involve altering an experienced reality (Study 4).

  13. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  14. Global gradient estimates for divergence-type elliptic problems involving general nonlinear operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yumi

    2018-05-01

    We study nonlinear elliptic problems with nonstandard growth and ellipticity related to an N-function. We establish global Calderón-Zygmund estimates of the weak solutions in the framework of Orlicz spaces over bounded non-smooth domains. Moreover, we prove a global regularity result for asymptotically regular problems which are getting close to the regular problems considered, when the gradient variable goes to infinity.

  15. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zarzalejo, L.F.; Ramirez, L.; Polo, J. [DER-CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain). Renewable Energy Dept.

    2005-07-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models. (author)

  16. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarzalejo, Luis F.; Ramirez, Lourdes; Polo, Jesus

    2005-01-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models

  17. Improving Global Gross Primary Productivity Estimates by Computing Optimum Light Use Efficiencies Using Flux Tower Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2017-11-01

    In the light use efficiency (LUE) approach of estimating the gross primary productivity (GPP), plant productivity is linearly related to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation assuming that plants absorb and convert solar energy into biomass within a maximum LUE (LUEmax) rate, which is assumed to vary conservatively within a given biome type. However, it has been shown that photosynthetic efficiency can vary within biomes. In this study, we used 149 global CO2 flux towers to derive the optimum LUE (LUEopt) under prevailing climate conditions for each tower location, stratified according to model training and test sites. Unlike LUEmax, LUEopt varies according to heterogeneous landscape characteristics and species traits. The LUEopt data showed large spatial variability within and between biome types, so that a simple biome classification explained only 29% of LUEopt variability over 95 global tower training sites. The use of explanatory variables in a mixed effect regression model explained 62.2% of the spatial variability in tower LUEopt data. The resulting regression model was used for global extrapolation of the LUEopt data and GPP estimation. The GPP estimated using the new LUEopt map showed significant improvement relative to global tower data, including a 15% R2 increase and 34% root-mean-square error reduction relative to baseline GPP calculations derived from biome-specific LUEmax constants. The new global LUEopt map is expected to improve the performance of LUE-based GPP algorithms for better assessment and monitoring of global terrestrial productivity and carbon dynamics.

  18. Seasonal Patterns in Hydrogen Isotopes of Claws from Breeding Wood-Warblers (Parulidae: Utility for Estimating Migratory Origins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Fraser

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The global decline in many species of migratory birds has focused attention on the extent of migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering populations. Stable-hydrogen isotope (δD analysis of feathers is a useful technique for measuring connectivity, but is constrained by features of molt location and timing. Claws are metabolically inert, keratinous tissues that grow continuously and can be sampled at any point in the annual cycle, thus providing potentially useful clues about an individual's previous movements. However, variation in the rate at which claws incorporate local δD values is not well described. We measured δD values in claws of two species of Neotropical-Nearctic migrant wood-warblers (Golden-winged Warbler and Cerulean Warbler breeding in eastern Ontario, Canada to investigate the rate of δD change through the breeding season and the utility of claw δD values for estimating migratory origins. δD values of claw tips from 66 different individuals, each sampled once during the breeding season, showed an average change of -0.3‰ to -0.4‰ per day in the direction of the expected local Ontario value. There were no significant sex or species differences in the rate of change. These results suggest δD values of claw tips in Parulids may reflect those of the non-breeding area for 3-7 weeks after arrival on the breeding grounds, and are useful estimators of non-breeding migratory origin. Our results also suggest that these species may leave the breeding ground before claw tips fully incorporate a local δD signature, as claws sampled at the end of the breeding season did not match locally grown feather and claw δD values. This is the first study to examine the seasonal rate of the change in δD values of claws in long-distance, insectivorous, migratory birds.

  19. A fuzzy regression with support vector machine approach to the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baser, Furkan; Demirhan, Haydar

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the amount of horizontal global solar radiation for a particular field is an important input for decision processes in solar radiation investments. In this article, we focus on the estimation of yearly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation by using an approach that utilizes fuzzy regression functions with support vector machine (FRF-SVM). This approach is not seriously affected by outlier observations and does not suffer from the over-fitting problem. To demonstrate the utility of the FRF-SVM approach in the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation, we conduct an empirical study over a dataset collected in Turkey and applied the FRF-SVM approach with several kernel functions. Then, we compare the estimation accuracy of the FRF-SVM approach to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system and a coplot supported-genetic programming approach. We observe that the FRF-SVM approach with a Gaussian kernel function is not affected by both outliers and over-fitting problem and gives the most accurate estimates of horizontal global solar radiation among the applied approaches. Consequently, the use of hybrid fuzzy functions and support vector machine approaches is found beneficial in long-term forecasting of horizontal global solar radiation over a region with complex climatic and terrestrial characteristics. - Highlights: • A fuzzy regression functions with support vector machines approach is proposed. • The approach is robust against outlier observations and over-fitting problem. • Estimation accuracy of the model is superior to several existent alternatives. • A new solar radiation estimation model is proposed for the region of Turkey. • The model is useful under complex terrestrial and climatic conditions.

  20. Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis: a review of the epidemiology and estimation of the global burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, Lauren R; Estívariz, Concepción F; Sutter, Roland W

    2014-11-01

    Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare adverse event associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). This review summarizes the epidemiology and provides a global burden estimate. A literature review was conducted to abstract the epidemiology and calculate the risk of VAPP. A bootstrap method was applied to calculate global VAPP burden estimates. Trends in VAPP epidemiology varied by country income level. In the low-income country, the majority of cases occurred in individuals who had received >3 doses of OPV (63%), whereas in middle and high-income countries, most cases occurred in recipients after their first OPV dose or unvaccinated contacts (81%). Using all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018). If the analysis is limited to estimates from countries that currently use OPV, the VAPP risk is 3.8 cases per million births (range, 2.9-4.7) and a burden of 399 cases (range, 306-490). Because many high-income countries have replaced OPV with inactivated poliovirus vaccine, the VAPP burden is concentrated in lower-income countries. The planned universal introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine is likely to substantially decrease the global VAPP burden by 80%-90%. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. A critical review on the estimation of daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yorukoglu, Mehmet; Celik, Ali Naci

    2006-01-01

    Models such as the Angstroem-Prescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine duration. In the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R 2 , RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE. If the former is the objective, then the statistical analysis should naturally be based on H/H o - S/S o (the ratio of daily solar radiation to extraterrestrial daily solar radiation vs. the ratio of sunshine duration to day length). If the latter is investigated, then the statistical analysis should be based on H c - H m (calculated daily solar radiation vs. measured daily solar radiation). A literature survey undertaken in the present article showed that these two data sets are apt to be confused, drawing the statistical parameters to be used in assessment of the estimation model from the latter data set or the vice versa set. The statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both of the data sets, and the inconsistencies caused by this confusion and other factors are exposed. A case study of the estimation models and global solar radiation estimation from sunshine duration is presented using five different models (linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential), which are the most common models used in the literature, based on 6 years long measured hourly global solar radiation data

  2. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine J Looker

    Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

  3. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R Torgerson

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

  4. Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

  5. Importance of representing optical depth variability for estimates of global line-shaped contrail radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärcher, Bernd; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Ponater, Michael; Frömming, Christine

    2010-11-09

    Estimates of the global radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails differ mainly due to the large uncertainty in contrail optical depth. Most contrails are optically thin so that their radiative forcing is roughly proportional to their optical depth and increases with contrail coverage. In recent assessments, the best estimate of mean contrail radiative forcing was significantly reduced, because global climate model simulations pointed at lower optical depth values than earlier studies. We revise these estimates by comparing the probability distribution of contrail optical depth diagnosed with a climate model with the distribution derived from a microphysical, cloud-scale model constrained by satellite observations over the United States. By assuming that the optical depth distribution from the cloud model is more realistic than that from the climate model, and by taking the difference between the observed and simulated optical depth over the United States as globally representative, we quantify uncertainties in the climate model's diagnostic contrail parameterization. Revising the climate model results accordingly increases the global mean radiative forcing estimate for line-shaped contrails by a factor of 3.3, from 3.5 mW/m(2) to 11.6 mW/m(2) for the year 1992. Furthermore, the satellite observations and the cloud model point at higher global mean optical depth of detectable contrails than often assumed in radiative transfer (off-line) studies. Therefore, we correct estimates of contrail radiative forcing from off-line studies as well. We suggest that the global net radiative forcing of line-shaped persistent contrails is in the range 8-20 mW/m(2) for the air traffic in the year 2000.

  6. Global CO2 efficiency: Country-wise estimates using a stochastic cost frontier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrala, Risto; Goel, Rajeev K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efficiency by employing a stochastic cost frontier analysis of about 170 countries in 1997 and 2007. The main contribution lies in providing a new approach to environmental efficiency estimation, in which the efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum emissions. We are able to examine a very large pool of nations and provide country-wise efficiency estimates. We estimate three econometric models, corresponding with alternative interpretations of the Cancun vision (Conference of the Parties 2011). The models reveal progress in global environmental efficiency during a preceding decade. The estimates indicate vast differences in efficiency levels, and efficiency changes across countries. The highest efficiency levels are observed in Africa and Europe, while the lowest are clustered around China. The largest efficiency gains were observed in central and eastern Europe. CO 2 efficiency also improved in the US and China, the two largest emitters, but their ranking in terms of CO 2 efficiency deteriorated. Policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► We estimate global environmental efficiency in line with the Cancun vision, using a stochastic cost frontier. ► The study covers 170 countries during a 10 year period, ending in 2007. ► The biggest improvements occurred in Europe, and efficiency falls in South America. ► The efficiency ranking of US and China, the largest emitters, deteriorated. ► In 2007, highest efficiency was observed in Africa and Europe, and the lowest around China.

  7. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  8. Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

    2017-05-16

    In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

  9. Methodological framework for World Health Organization estimates of the global burden of foodborne disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Devleesschauwer (Brecht); J.A. Haagsma (Juanita); F.J. Angulo (Frederick); D.C. Bellinger (David); D. Cole (Dana); D. Döpfer (Dörte); A. Fazil (Aamir); E.M. Fèvre (Eric); H.J. Gibb (Herman); T. Hald (Tine); M.D. Kirk (Martyn); R.J. Lake (Robin); C. Maertens De Noordhout (Charline); C. Mathers (Colin); S.A. McDonald (Scott); S.M. Pires (Sara); N. Speybroeck (Niko); M.K. Thomas (Kate); D. Torgerson; F. Wu (Felicia); A.H. Havelaar (Arie); N. Praet (Nicolas)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force

  10. A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model-based assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eitelberg, D.A.; van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to

  11. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  12. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griscom, Bronson W; Ellis, Peter W; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

  13. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  14. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  15. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  16. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  17. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  18. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many

  19. Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

    2016-01-01

    Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

  20. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rein M G J Houben

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI.We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011 and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%, amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9% of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8 million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8% was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI

  1. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brecht Devleesschauwer

    Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution. All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process.We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level.

  2. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  3. Estimation of the Carbon Footprint and Global Warming Potential in Rice Production Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastan, S.; Soltani, F.; Noormohamadi, G.; Madani, H.; Yadi, R.

    2016-01-01

    Optimal management approaches can be adopted in order to increase crop productivity and lower the carbon footprint of grain products. The objective of this study was to estimate the carbon (C) footprint and global warming potential of rice production systems. In this experiment, rice production systems (including SRI, improved and conventional) were studied. All activities, field operations and data in production methods and at different input rates were monitored and recorded during 2012. Results showed that average global warming potential across production systems was equal to 2803.25 kg CO 2 -eq ha-1. The highest and least global warming potential were observed in the SRI and conventional systems, respectively. global warming potential per unit energy input was the least and most in SRI and conventional systems, respectively. Also, the SRI and conventional systems had the maximum and minimum global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. SRI and conventional system had the greatest and least global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. Therefore, the optimal management approach found in SRI resulted in a reduction in GHGs, global warming potential and the carbon footprint.

  4. Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

  5. Estimation of the molecular hydrogen soil uptake and traffic emissions at a suburban site near Paris through hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and radon-222 semicontinuous measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yver, C.; Schmidt, M.; Bousquet, P.; Ramonet, M.; Bousquet, P.; Zahorowski, W.

    2009-01-01

    Since June 2006, simultaneous semicontinuous measurements of tropospheric molecular hydrogen (H 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), and radon-222 ( 222 Rn) have been performed at Gif-sur-Yvette (Paris region), a suburban atmospheric measurement site in France. Molecular hydrogen mixing ratios range from 500 to 1000 ppb, CO mixing ratios vary from 100 to 1400 ppb, and 222 Rn concentrations fluctuate from 0 to 20 Bq m -3 . The H 2 seasonal cycle shows the expected pattern for the Northern Hemisphere with a maximum in spring and a minimum in autumn. We inferred a mean baseline value of 533 ppb with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 30 ppb. Carbon monoxide exhibits a seasonal cycle with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. The mean baseline value reaches 132 ppb with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 40 ppb. Radon-222 presents weak seasonal variations with a maximum in autumn/winter and a minimum in spring/summer. The diurnal cycles of H 2 and CO are dominated by emissions from nearby traffic with two peaks during morning and evening rush hours. The typical H 2 /CO emission ratio from traffic is found to be 0.47 ± 0.08 on a molar basis (ppb/ppb). The radon tracer method is applied to nighttime H 2 observations to estimate the H 2 soil uptake of the nocturnal catchment area of our sampling site. The influences from nocturnal local anthropogenic combustion sources are estimated by parallel measurements of CO at 0.14 * 10 -5 g(H 2 ) m -2 h -1 . The mean inferred dry deposition velocity is 0.024 ± 0.013 cm s -1 with a seasonal amplitude of 40% at Gif-sur-Yvette.

  6. Estimating the Global Agricultural Impact of Solar Radiation Management using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burney, J. A.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2017-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered an option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Though SRM may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, its impacts from concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols (SS) created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, how those changes in sunlight impacted global crop yields, and the total effect that SS may have on yields in an SRM scenario when the climatic and sunlight effects are jointly considered. We find that the sunlight-mediated impact of SS on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice, wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a geoengineering scenario using SS-based SRM from 2050-2069, we find that SRM damages due to scattering sunlight are roughly equal in magnitude to SRM benefits from cooling. This suggests that SRM - if deployed using SS similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic - would attenuate little of the damages from climate change to global agriculture on net. Our approach could be extended to study SRM impacts on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

  7. A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi; Sarvar, Rahim; Moud, Hashem Izadi; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models. -- Highlights: ► A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the solar global radiation. ► The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. ► Several climatological and meteorological parameters are included in the analysis. ► The GP/SA models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation.

  8. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  9. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Gatelli, D.; Mara, T.A.

    2006-01-01

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA

  10. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Mara, T.A. [Laboratory of Industrial engineering, University of Reunion Island, BP 7151, 15 avenue Rene Cassin, 97 715 Saint-Denis (France)

    2006-06-15

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA.

  11. Enhanced Global Signal of Neutral Hydrogen Due to Excess Radiation at Cosmic Dawn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Chang; Holder, Gilbert

    2018-05-01

    We revisit the global 21 cm signal calculation incorporating a possible radio background at early times, and find that the global 21 cm signal shows a much stronger absorption feature, which could enhance detection prospects for future 21 cm experiments. In light of recent reports of a possible low-frequency excess radio background, we propose that detailed 21 cm calculations should include a possible early radio background.

  12. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  13. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linwood Pendleton

    Full Text Available Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'. Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  14. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  15. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  16. Global estimate of lichen and bryophyte contributions to forest precipitation interception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Stan, John; Porada, Philipp; Kleidon, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Interception of precipitation by forest canopies plays an important role in its partitioning to evaporation, transpiration and runoff. Field observations show arboreal lichens and bryophytes can substantially enhance forests' precipitation storage and evaporation. However, representations of canopy interception in global land surface models currently ignore arboreal lichen and bryophyte contributions. This study uses the lichen and bryophyte model (LiBry) to provide the first process-based modelling approach estimating these organisms' contributions to canopy water storage and evaporation. The global mean value of forest water storage capacity increased significantly from 0.87 mm to 1.33 mm by the inclusion of arboreal poikilohydric organisms. Global forest canopy evaporation of intercepted precipitation was also greatly enhanced by 44%. Ratio of total versus bare canopy global evaporation exceeded 2 in many forested regions. This altered global patterns in canopy water storage, evaporation, and ultimately the proportion of rainfall evaporated. A sensitivity analysis was also performed. Results indicate rainfall interception is of larger magnitude than previously reported by global land surface modelling work because of the important role of lichen and bryophytes in rainfall interception.

  17. The contribution of the hydrogen bond acidity on the lipophilicity of drugs estimated from chromatographic measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallicer, Juan M; Pascual, Rosalia; Port, Adriana; Rosés, Martí; Ràfols, Clara; Bosch, Elisabeth

    2013-02-14

    The influence of the hydrogen bond acidity when the 1-octanol/water partition coefficient (log P(o/w)) of drugs is determined from chromatographic measurements was studied in this work. This influence was firstly evaluated by means of the comparison between the Abraham solvation parameter model when it is applied to express the 1-octanol/water partitioning and the chromatographic retention, expressed as the solute polarity p. Then, several hydrogen bond acidity descriptors were compared in order to determine properly the log P(o/w) of drugs. These descriptors were obtained from different software and comprise two-dimensional parameters such as the calculated Abraham hydrogen bond acidity A and three-dimensional descriptors like HDCA-2 from CODESSA program or WO1 and DRDODO descriptors calculated from Volsurf+software. The additional HOMO-LUMO polarizability descriptor should be added when the three-dimensional descriptors are used to complement the chromatographic retention. The models generated using these descriptors were compared studying the correlations between the determined log P(o/w) values and the reference ones. The comparison showed that there was no significant difference between the tested models and any of them was able to determine the log P(o/w) of drugs from a single chromatographic measurement and the correspondent molecular descriptors terms. However, the model that involved the calculated A descriptor was simpler and it is thus recommended for practical uses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

    2014-01-01

    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

  19. Assembling GHERG: Could "academic crowd-sourcing" address gaps in global health estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Marušić, Ana; Sridhar, Devi; Nair, Harish; Adeloye, Davies; Theodoratou, Evropi; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-06-01

    In recent months, the World Health Organization (WHO), independent academic researchers, the Lancet and PLoS Medicine journals worked together to improve reporting of population health estimates. The new guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting (likely to be named GATHER), which are eagerly awaited, represent a helpful move that should benefit the field of global health metrics. Building on this progress and drawing from a tradition of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG)'s successful work model, we would like to propose a new initiative - "Global Health Epidemiology Reference Group" (GHERG). We see GHERG as an informal and entirely voluntary international collaboration of academic groups who are willing to contribute to improving disease burden estimates and respect the principles of the new guidelines - a form of "academic crowd-sourcing". The main focus of GHERG will be to identify the "gap areas" where not much information is available and/or where there is a lot of uncertainty present about the accuracy of the existing estimates. This approach should serve to complement the existing WHO and IHME estimates and to represent added value to both efforts.

  20. Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobol' , I.M. [Institute for Mathematical Modelling of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: debora.gatelli@jrc.it; Kucherenko, S.S. [Imperial College London (United Kingdom); Mauntz, W. [Department of Biochemical and Chemical Engineering, Dortmund University (Germany)

    2007-07-15

    One of the major settings of global sensitivity analysis is that of fixing non-influential factors, in order to reduce the dimensionality of a model. However, this is often done without knowing the magnitude of the approximation error being produced. This paper presents a new theorem for the estimation of the average approximation error generated when fixing a group of non-influential factors. A simple function where analytical solutions are available is used to illustrate the theorem. The numerical estimation of small sensitivity indices is discussed.

  1. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  2. Estimating Global Impervious Surface based on Social-economic Data and Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Impervious surface areas around the globe are expanding and significantly altering the surface energy balance, hydrology cycle and ecosystem services. Many studies have underlined the importance of impervious surface, r from hydrological modeling to contaminant transport monitoring and urban development estimation. Therefore accurate estimation of the global impervious surface is important for both physical and social sciences. Given the limited coverage of high spatial resolution imagery and ground survey, using satellite remote sensing and geospatial data to estimate global impervious areas is a practical approach. Based on the previous work of area-weighted imperviousness for north branch of the Chicago River provided by HDR, this study developed a method to determine the percentage of impervious surface using latest global land cover categories from multi-source satellite observations, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Percent impervious surface at 30-meter resolution were mapped. We found that 1.33% of the CONUS (105,814 km2) and 0.475% of the land surface (640,370km2) are impervious surfaces. To test the utility and practicality of the proposed method, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2011 percent developed imperviousness for the conterminous United States was used to evaluate our results. The average difference between the derived imperviousness from our method and the NLCD data across CONUS is 1.14%, while difference between our results and the NLCD data are within ±1% over 81.63% of the CONUS. The distribution of global impervious surface map indicates that impervious surfaces are primarily concentrated in China, India, Japan, USA and Europe where are highly populated and/or developed. This study proposes a straightforward way of mapping global imperviousness, which can provide useful information for hydrologic modeling and other applications.

  3. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    OpenAIRE

    ter Steege, H.; et al., [Unknown; Duivenvoorden, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened ...

  4. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  5. Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Basu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

  6. Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athina Korfiati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for renewable electricity sources, due to the global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. Despite the promising effects, only a limited amount of electricity is currently produced globally from solar power. In order to help countries realize the importance of tapping into solar energy, it is crucial to reveal the potential amount of electricity that could be thus produced. For this reason, open data were used to produce an interactive web map of the global solar energy potential. For the calculation of the potential, the top-down approach, generally used in the literature, was modified by introducing a better way of calculating rooftop areas, and accounting for temperature, which highly reduces PV panels’ efficiency. Mean annual temperature data were introduced to improve its accuracy, and an approach to estimate rooftop and façade areas as a function of GDP was developed. The current global solar potential technically available was estimated at about 613 PWh/y. Furthermore, the cost of photovoltaic generation was computed and extremely low values, 0.03 - 0.2 $/kWh, were derived.

  7. A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Heki, K.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

  8. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillon, S.; Borges, A.V.; Castaneda-Moya, E.; Diele, K.; Dittmar, T.; Duke, N.C.; Kristensen, E.; Lee, S.-Y.; Marchand, C.; Middelburg, J.J.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Smith, T. J.; Twilley, R.R.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ???-218 ?? 72 Tg C a-1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ??? 112 ?? 85 Tg C a-1, equivalent in magnitude to ??? 30-40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  10. A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Xiaojun; Du, Huaqiang; Zhou, Guomo; Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Fan, Weiliang; Zhu, Dien

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on the temporal and spatial distributions of solar radiation is very important in many scientific fields. In this study, instantaneous solar irradiances on a horizontal surface at 10:30 and 13:30 local time (LT) were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric data products with relatively high spatial resolution using a solar radiation model. These solar irradiances were combined to derive half-hourly averages of solar irradiance (HASI) and daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface using linear interpolation, piecewise linear regression, and quadratic polynomial regression. Compared with field observations, the HASI were estimated accurately when the total cloud fraction (TCF) was 0.6. Overall, the daily GSR estimated in this study was better than that estimated by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis of NASA. The daily GSR estimated in this study was underestimated, whereas it was overestimated by MERRA. The combination of the daily GSR estimates of this study and MERRA offers a simple and feasible technique for reducing uncertainty in daily GSR estimates. - Highlights: • Daily GSR is integrated from two observations from the MODIS products. • Daily GSR from the MODIS products is underestimated. • Biases were attributed primarily to variations in the total cloud percent. • Combining daily GSR estimates from the MODIS and the MERRA increases accuracy.

  11. Global optimization for motion estimation with applications to ultrasound videos of carotid artery plaques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Sergio; Pattichis, Marios; Soliz, Peter; Barriga, Simon; Loizou, C. P.; Pattichis, C. S.

    2010-03-01

    Motion estimation from digital video is an ill-posed problem that requires a regularization approach. Regularization introduces a smoothness constraint that can reduce the resolution of the velocity estimates. The problem is further complicated for ultrasound videos (US), where speckle noise levels can be significant. Motion estimation using optical flow models requires the modification of several parameters to satisfy the optical flow constraint as well as the level of imposed smoothness. Furthermore, except in simulations or mostly unrealistic cases, there is no ground truth to use for validating the velocity estimates. This problem is present in all real video sequences that are used as input to motion estimation algorithms. It is also an open problem in biomedical applications like motion analysis of US of carotid artery (CA) plaques. In this paper, we study the problem of obtaining reliable ultrasound video motion estimates for atherosclerotic plaques for use in clinical diagnosis. A global optimization framework for motion parameter optimization is presented. This framework uses actual carotid artery motions to provide optimal parameter values for a variety of motions and is tested on ten different US videos using two different motion estimation techniques.

  12. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  13. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  14. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  15. Radiative transfer model for estimation of global solar radiation; Modelo de transferencia radiativa para la estimacion de la radiacion solar global

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettazzi, A.; Sabon, C. S.; Souto, G. J. A.

    2004-07-01

    In this work, the efficiency of a radiative transfer model in estimating the annual solar global radiation has been evaluated, over different locations at Galicia, Spain, in clear sky periods. Due to its quantitative significance, special attention has been focused on the analysis of the influence of visibility over the global radiation. By comparison of both estimated and measured global solar radiation along year 2002, a typical annual visibility series was obtained over every location. These visibility values has been analysed in order to identify patterns and typical values, in order to be used to estimate the global solar radiation along a different year. Validation was done over the year 2003, obtaining an annual estimation less than 10 % different to the measured value. (Author)

  16. Hydrogen production by nuclear heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosbie, Leanne M.; Chapin, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    A major shift in the way the world obtains energy is on the horizon. For a new energy carrier to enter the market, several objectives must be met. New energy carriers must meet increasing production needs, reduce global pollution emissions, be distributed for availability worldwide, be produced and used safely, and be economically sustainable during all phases of the carrier lifecycle. Many believe that hydrogen will overtake electricity as the preferred energy carrier. Hydrogen can be burned cleanly and may be used to produce electricity via fuel cells. Its use could drastically reduce global CO 2 emissions. However, as an energy carrier, hydrogen is produced with input energy from other sources. Conventional hydrogen production methods are costly and most produce carbon dioxide, therefore, negating many of the benefits of using hydrogen. With growing concerns about global pollution, alternatives to fossil-based hydrogen production are being developed around the world. Nuclear energy offers unique benefits for near-term and economically viable production of hydrogen. Three candidate technologies, all nuclear-based, are examined. These include: advanced electrolysis of water, steam reforming of methane, and the sulfur-iodine thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The underlying technology of each process, advantages and disadvantages, current status, and production cost estimates are given. (author)

  17. Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gruber

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub- surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (<1 km global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60° S is estimated to be 13–18 × 106 km2 or 9–14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16–21 × 106 km2. The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 106 km2. A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues

  18. Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K; Mensah, George A; Feigin, Valery L; Sposato, Luciano A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called 'garbage codes' (GCs). This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country and year. The reassignment was done based on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension' with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Hexicon 2: automated processing of hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry data with improved deuteration distribution estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Robert; Lou, Xinghua; Reinstein, Jochen; Shoeman, Robert L; Hamprecht, Fred A; Winkler, Andreas

    2014-06-01

    Hydrogen-deuterium exchange (HDX) experiments analyzed by mass spectrometry (MS) provide information about the dynamics and the solvent accessibility of protein backbone amide hydrogen atoms. Continuous improvement of MS instrumentation has contributed to the increasing popularity of this method; however, comprehensive automated data analysis is only beginning to mature. We present Hexicon 2, an automated pipeline for data analysis and visualization based on the previously published program Hexicon (Lou et al. 2010). Hexicon 2 employs the sensitive NITPICK peak detection algorithm of its predecessor in a divide-and-conquer strategy and adds new features, such as chromatogram alignment and improved peptide sequence assignment. The unique feature of deuteration distribution estimation was retained in Hexicon 2 and improved using an iterative deconvolution algorithm that is robust even to noisy data. In addition, Hexicon 2 provides a data browser that facilitates quality control and provides convenient access to common data visualization tasks. Analysis of a benchmark dataset demonstrates superior performance of Hexicon 2 compared with its predecessor in terms of deuteration centroid recovery and deuteration distribution estimation. Hexicon 2 greatly reduces data analysis time compared with manual analysis, whereas the increased number of peptides provides redundant coverage of the entire protein sequence. Hexicon 2 is a standalone application available free of charge under http://hx2.mpimf-heidelberg.mpg.de.

  20. Hexicon 2: Automated Processing of Hydrogen-Deuterium Exchange Mass Spectrometry Data with Improved Deuteration Distribution Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Robert; Lou, Xinghua; Reinstein, Jochen; Shoeman, Robert L.; Hamprecht, Fred A.; Winkler, Andreas

    2014-06-01

    Hydrogen-deuterium exchange (HDX) experiments analyzed by mass spectrometry (MS) provide information about the dynamics and the solvent accessibility of protein backbone amide hydrogen atoms. Continuous improvement of MS instrumentation has contributed to the increasing popularity of this method; however, comprehensive automated data analysis is only beginning to mature. We present Hexicon 2, an automated pipeline for data analysis and visualization based on the previously published program Hexicon (Lou et al. 2010). Hexicon 2 employs the sensitive NITPICK peak detection algorithm of its predecessor in a divide-and-conquer strategy and adds new features, such as chromatogram alignment and improved peptide sequence assignment. The unique feature of deuteration distribution estimation was retained in Hexicon 2 and improved using an iterative deconvolution algorithm that is robust even to noisy data. In addition, Hexicon 2 provides a data browser that facilitates quality control and provides convenient access to common data visualization tasks. Analysis of a benchmark dataset demonstrates superior performance of Hexicon 2 compared with its predecessor in terms of deuteration centroid recovery and deuteration distribution estimation. Hexicon 2 greatly reduces data analysis time compared with manual analysis, whereas the increased number of peptides provides redundant coverage of the entire protein sequence. Hexicon 2 is a standalone application available free of charge under http://hx2.mpimf-heidelberg.mpg.de.

  1. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies – Task 5 Report Use of Fuel Cell Technology in Electric Power Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan Andrew J.; Ahluwalia, Rajesh K.

    2007-12-01

    The purpose of this work was to assess the performance of high temperature membranes and observe the impact of different parameters, such as water-to-carbon ratio, carbon formation, hydrogen formation, efficiencies, methane formation, fuel and oxidant utilization, sulfur reduction, and the thermal efficiency/electrical efficiency relationship, on fuel cell performance. A 250 KW PEM fuel cell model was simulated [in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the help of the fuel cell computer software model (GCtool)] which would be used to produce power of 250 kW and also produce steam at 120oC that can be used for industrial applications. The performance of the system was examined by estimating the various electrical and thermal efficiencies achievable, and by assessing the effect of supply water temperature, process water temperature, and pressure on thermal performance. It was concluded that increasing the fuel utilization increases the electrical efficiency but decreases the thermal efficiency. The electrical and thermal efficiencies are optimum at ~85% fuel utilization. The low temperature membrane (70oC) is unsuitable for generating high-grade heat suitable for useful cogeneration. The high temperature fuel cells are capable of producing steam through 280oC that can be utilized for industrial applications. Increasing the supply water temperature reduces the efficiency of the radiator. Increasing the supply water temperature beyond the dew point temperature decreases the thermal efficiency with the corresponding decrease in high-grade heat utilization. Increasing the steam pressure decreases the thermal efficiency. The environmental impacts of fuel cell use depend upon the source of the hydrogen rich fuel used. By using pure hydrogen, fuel cells have virtually no emissions except water. Hydrogen is rarely used due to problems with storage and transportation, but in the future, the growth of a “solar hydrogen economy” has been projected

  2. Annual global tree cover estimated by fusing optical and SAR satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Tree cover defined structurally as the proportional, vertically projected area of vegetation (including leaves, stems, branches, etc.) of woody plants above a given height affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Tree cover provides a measurable attribute upon which forest cover may be defined. Changes in tree cover over time can be used to monitor and retrieve site-specific histories of forest disturbance, succession, and degradation. Measurements of Earth's tree cover have been produced at regional, national, and global extents. However, most representations are static, and those for which multiple time periods have been produced are neither intended nor adequate for consistent, long-term monitoring. Moreover, although a substantial proportion of change has been shown to occur at resolutions below 250 m, existing long-term, Landsat-resolution datasets are either produced as static layers or with annual, five- or ten-year temporal resolution. We have developed an algorithms to retrieve seamless and consistent, sub-hectare resolution estimates of tree-canopy from optical and radar satellite data sources (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel-2, and ALOS-PALSAR). Our approach to estimation enables assimilation of multiple data sources and produces estimates of both cover and its uncertainty at the scale of pixels. It has generated the world's first Landsat-based percent tree cover dataset in 2013. Our previous algorithms are being adapted to produce prototype percent-tree and water-cover layers globally in 2000, 2005, and 2010—as well as annually over North and South America from 2010 to 2015—from passive-optical (Landsat and Sentinel-2) and SAR measurements. Generating a global, annual dataset is beyond the scope of this support; however, North and South America represent all of the world's major biomes and so offer the complete global range of environmental sources of error and

  3. Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

  4. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davies Adeloye

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

  5. Estimating Global Ecosystem Isohydry/Anisohydry Using Active and Passive Microwave Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Guan, Kaiyu; Gentine, Pierre; Konings, Alexandra G.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Kimball, John S.; Xu, Xiangtao; Anderegg, William R. L.; McDowell, Nate G.; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi; Long, David G.; Good, Stephen P.

    2017-12-01

    The concept of isohydry/anisohydry describes the degree to which plants regulate their water status, operating from isohydric with strict regulation to anisohydric with less regulation. Though some species level measures of isohydry/anisohydry exist at a few locations, ecosystem-scale information is still largely unavailable. In this study, we use diurnal observations from active (Ku-Band backscatter from QuikSCAT) and passive (X-band vegetation optical depth (VOD) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua) microwave satellite data to estimate global ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry. Here diurnal observations from both satellites approximate predawn and midday plant canopy water contents, which are used to estimate isohydry/anisohydry. The two independent estimates from radar backscatter and VOD show reasonable agreement at low and middle latitudes but diverge at high latitudes. Grasslands, croplands, wetlands, and open shrublands are more anisohydric, whereas evergreen broadleaf and deciduous broadleaf forests are more isohydric. The direct validation with upscaled in situ species isohydry/anisohydry estimates indicates that the VOD-based estimates have much better agreement than the backscatter-based estimates. The indirect validation with prior knowledge suggests that both estimates are generally consistent in that vegetation water status of anisohydric ecosystems more closely tracks environmental fluctuations of water availability and demand than their isohydric counterparts. However, uncertainties still exist in the isohydry/anisohydry estimate, primarily arising from the remote sensing data and, to a lesser extent, from the methodology. The comprehensive assessment in this study can help us better understand the robustness, limitation, and uncertainties of the satellite-derived isohydry/anisohydry estimates. The ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry has the potential to reveal new insights into spatiotemporal ecosystem response to droughts.

  6. Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

  7. Estimation of monthly-mean daily global solar radiation based on MODIS and TRMM products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin, Jun; Chen, Zhuoqi; Yang, Kun; Liang, Shunlin; Tang, Wenjun

    2011-01-01

    Global solar radiation (GSR) is required in a large number of fields. Many parameterization schemes are developed to estimate it using routinely measured meteorological variables, since GSR is directly measured at a limited number of stations. Even so, meteorological stations are sparse, especially, in remote areas. Satellite signals (radiance at the top of atmosphere in most cases) can be used to estimate continuous GSR in space. However, many existing remote sensing products have a relatively coarse spatial resolution and these inversion algorithms are too complicated to be mastered by experts in other research fields. In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to build the mathematical relationship between measured monthly-mean daily GSR and several high-level remote sensing products available for the public, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly averaged land surface temperature (LST), the number of days in which the LST retrieval is performed in 1 month, MODIS enhanced vegetation index, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) monthly precipitation. After training, GSR estimates from this ANN are verified against ground measurements at 12 radiation stations. Then, comparisons are performed among three GSR estimates, including the one presented in this study, a surface data-based estimate, and a remote sensing product by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Validation results indicate that the ANN-based method presented in this study can estimate monthly-mean daily GSR at a spatial resolution of about 5 km with high accuracy.

  8. Hawaii hydrogen energy economy: production and distribution of hydrogen and oxygen in the district of north Kohala, the Big Island of Hawaii: a global prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russel, G.

    1993-01-01

    This paper shows how a community which is totally oil dependent can be transformed into a hydrogen fuel based economy by using the concept of setting hydrogen zones, with the use of off-peak hydro-electrical power and renewable energies. An existing hydro-electric plant in Hawaii could serve as a local prototype. 2 figs

  9. Probing the global potential energy minimum of (CH2O)2: THz absorption spectrum of (CH2O)2 in solid neon and para-hydrogen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas; Voute, A.; Mihrin, Dmytro

    2017-01-01

    )2 embedded in cryogenic neon and enriched para-hydrogen matrices. A (semi)-empirical value for the change of vibrational zero-point energy of 5.5 ± 0.3 kJ mol−1 is proposed for the dimerization process. These THz spectroscopic observations are complemented by CCSD(T)-F12/aug-cc-pV5Z (electronic......The true global potential energy minimum configuration of the formaldehyde dimer (CH2O)2, including the presence of a single or a double weak intermolecular CH⋯O hydrogen bond motif, has been a long-standing subject among both experimentalists and theoreticians as two different energy minima...... conformations of Cs and C2h symmetry have almost identical energies. The present work demonstrates how the class of large-amplitude hydrogen bond vibrational motion probed in the THz region provides excellent direct spectroscopic observables for these weak intermolecular CH⋯O hydrogen bond motifs...

  10. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the

  11. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  12. Estimating the uncertainty in thermochemical calculations for oxygen-hydrogen combustors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Joseph David

    The thermochemistry program CEA2 was combined with the statistical thermodynamics program PAC99 in a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the uncertainty in several CEA2 output variables due to uncertainty in thermodynamic reference values for the reactant and combustion species. In all, six typical performance parameters were examined, along with the required intermediate calculations (five gas properties and eight stoichiometric coefficients), for three hydrogen-oxygen combustors: a main combustor, an oxidizer preburner and a fuel preburner. The three combustors were analyzed in two different modes: design mode, where, for the first time, the uncertainty in thermodynamic reference values---taken from the literature---was considered (inputs to CEA2 were specified and so had no uncertainty); and data reduction mode, where inputs to CEA2 did have uncertainty. The inputs to CEA2 were contrived experimental measurements that were intended to represent the typical combustor testing facility. In design mode, uncertainties in the performance parameters were on the order of 0.1% for the main combustor, on the order of 0.05% for the oxidizer preburner and on the order of 0.01% for the fuel preburner. Thermodynamic reference values for H2O were the dominant sources of uncertainty, as was the assigned enthalpy for liquid oxygen. In data reduction mode, uncertainties in performance parameters increased significantly as a result of the uncertainties in experimental measurements compared to uncertainties in thermodynamic reference values. Main combustor and fuel preburner theoretical performance values had uncertainties of about 0.5%, while the oxidizer preburner had nearly 2%. Associated experimentally-determined performance values for all three combustors were 3% to 4%. The dominant sources of uncertainty in this mode were the propellant flowrates. These results only apply to hydrogen-oxygen combustors and should not be generalized to every propellant combination. Species for

  13. On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.; Church, Sarah E.; Wechsler, Risa H., E-mail: dongwooc@stanford.edu [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Physics Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small for our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.

  14. A global approach to estimate irrigated areas - a comparison between different data and statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Jonas; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

    2018-02-01

    Agriculture is the largest global consumer of water. Irrigated areas constitute 40 % of the total area used for agricultural production (FAO, 2014a) Information on their spatial distribution is highly relevant for regional water management and food security. Spatial information on irrigation is highly important for policy and decision makers, who are facing the transition towards more efficient sustainable agriculture. However, the mapping of irrigated areas still represents a challenge for land use classifications, and existing global data sets differ strongly in their results. The following study tests an existing irrigation map based on statistics and extends the irrigated area using ancillary data. The approach processes and analyzes multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) SPOT-VGT data and agricultural suitability data - both at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec - incrementally in a multiple decision tree. It covers the period from 1999 to 2012. The results globally show a 18 % larger irrigated area than existing approaches based on statistical data. The largest differences compared to the official national statistics are found in Asia and particularly in China and India. The additional areas are mainly identified within already known irrigated regions where irrigation is more dense than previously estimated. The validation with global and regional products shows the large divergence of existing data sets with respect to size and distribution of irrigated areas caused by spatial resolution, the considered time period and the input data and assumption made.

  15. Estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sebaii, A.A.; Al-Ghamdi, A.A.; Al-Hazmi, F.S.; Faidah, Adel S.

    2009-01-01

    The measured data of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, as well as the number of sunshine hours, mean daily ambient temperature, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures, relative humidity and amount of cloud cover, for Jeddah (latitude 21 deg. 42'37''N, longitude 39 deg. 11'12''E), Saudi Arabia for the period 1996-2006 are analyzed. The data are divided into two sets. The sub-data set 1 (1996-2004) are employed to develop empirical correlations between the monthly average of daily global solar radiation fraction (H/H 0 ) and various meteorological parameters. The nonlinear Angstroem type model developed by Sen and the trigonometric function model proposed by Bulut and Bueyuekalaca are also evaluated. New empirical constants for these two models have been obtained for Jeddah. The sub-data set 2 (2005, 2006) are then used to evaluate the derived correlations. Comparisons between measured and calculated values of H have been performed. It is indicated that, the Sen and Bulut and Bueyuekalaca models satisfactorily describe the horizontal global solar radiation for Jeddah. All the proposed correlations are found to be able to predict the annual average of daily global solar radiation with excellent accuracy. Therefore, the long term performance of solar energy devices can be estimated.

  16. Appendix B: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  17. Position Estimation and Local Mapping Using Omnidirectional Images and Global Appearance Descriptors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yerai Berenguer

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work presents some methods to create local maps and to estimate the position of a mobile robot, using the global appearance of omnidirectional images. We use a robot that carries an omnidirectional vision system on it. Every omnidirectional image acquired by the robot is described only with one global appearance descriptor, based on the Radon transform. In the work presented in this paper, two different possibilities have been considered. In the first one, we assume the existence of a map previously built composed of omnidirectional images that have been captured from previously-known positions. The purpose in this case consists of estimating the nearest position of the map to the current position of the robot, making use of the visual information acquired by the robot from its current (unknown position. In the second one, we assume that we have a model of the environment composed of omnidirectional images, but with no information about the location of where the images were acquired. The purpose in this case consists of building a local map and estimating the position of the robot within this map. Both methods are tested with different databases (including virtual and real images taking into consideration the changes of the position of different objects in the environment, different lighting conditions and occlusions. The results show the effectiveness and the robustness of both methods.

  18. Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argus, Donald F.; Heflin, Michael B.

    1995-01-01

    We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

  19. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  20. Global and Multi-National Prevalence of Fungal Diseases—Estimate Precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Bongomin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Fungal diseases kill more than 1.5 million and affect over a billion people. However, they are still a neglected topic by public health authorities even though most deaths from fungal diseases are avoidable. Serious fungal infections occur as a consequence of other health problems including asthma, AIDS, cancer, organ transplantation and corticosteroid therapies. Early accurate diagnosis allows prompt antifungal therapy; however this is often delayed or unavailable leading to death, serious chronic illness or blindness. Recent global estimates have found 3,000,000 cases of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis, ~223,100 cases of cryptococcal meningitis complicating HIV/AIDS, ~700,000 cases of invasive candidiasis, ~500,000 cases of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, ~250,000 cases of invasive aspergillosis, ~100,000 cases of disseminated histoplasmosis, over 10,000,000 cases of fungal asthma and ~1,000,000 cases of fungal keratitis occur annually. Since 2013, the Leading International Fungal Education (LIFE portal has facilitated the estimation of the burden of serious fungal infections country by country for over 5.7 billion people (>80% of the world’s population. These studies have shown differences in the global burden between countries, within regions of the same country and between at risk populations. Here we interrogate the accuracy of these fungal infection burden estimates in the 43 published papers within the LIFE initiative.

  1. Global Appearance Applied to Visual Map Building and Path Estimation Using Multiscale Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Amorós

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we present a topological map building and localization system for mobile robots based on global appearance of visual information. We include a comparison and analysis of global-appearance techniques applied to wide-angle scenes in retrieval tasks. Next, we define multiscale analysis, which permits improving the association between images and extracting topological distances. Then, a topological map-building algorithm is proposed. At first, the algorithm has information only of some isolated positions of the navigation area in the form of nodes. Each node is composed of a collection of images that covers the complete field of view from a certain position. The algorithm solves the node retrieval and estimates their spatial arrangement. With these aims, it uses the visual information captured along some routes that cover the navigation area. As a result, the algorithm builds a graph that reflects the distribution and adjacency relations between nodes (map. After the map building, we also propose a route path estimation system. This algorithm takes advantage of the multiscale analysis. The accuracy in the pose estimation is not reduced to the nodes locations but also to intermediate positions between them. The algorithms have been tested using two different databases captured in real indoor environments under dynamic conditions.

  2. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  3. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  4. Selective Segmentation for Global Optimization of Depth Estimation in Complex Scenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a segmentation-based global optimization method for depth estimation. Firstly, for obtaining accurate matching cost, the original local stereo matching approach based on self-adapting matching window is integrated with two matching cost optimization strategies aiming at handling both borders and occlusion regions. Secondly, we employ a comprehensive smooth term to satisfy diverse smoothness request in real scene. Thirdly, a selective segmentation term is used for enforcing the plane trend constraints selectively on the corresponding segments to further improve the accuracy of depth results from object level. Experiments on the Middlebury image pairs show that the proposed global optimization approach is considerably competitive with other state-of-the-art matching approaches.

  5. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Torgerson, Paul R.

    2015-01-01

    parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than......Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established...... different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain...

  6. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  7. Global estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes: analysis of multinational antenatal surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori Newman

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥ 90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥ 90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC coverage for women with syphilis.Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963 adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716 stillbirths (>28 wk or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk, 91,764 (76,141; 107,397 neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605 preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245 infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was "probable active," and for testing and treatment coverage.Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that could be prevented by early testing and

  8. Global Estimates of Syphilis in Pregnancy and Associated Adverse Outcomes: Analysis of Multinational Antenatal Surveillance Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lori; Kamb, Mary; Hawkes, Sarah; Gomez, Gabriela; Say, Lale; Seuc, Armando; Broutet, Nathalie

    2013-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC) coverage for women with syphilis. Methods and Findings Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million) pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963) adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716) stillbirths (>28 wk) or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk), 91,764 (76,141; 107,397) neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605) preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245) infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was “probable active,” and for testing and treatment coverage. Conclusions Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that

  9. The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

  10. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere

  11. Global Impact Estimation of ISO 50001 Energy Management System for Industrial and Service Sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Therkelsen, Peter L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rao, Prakash [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    A methodology has been developed to determine the impacts of ISO 50001 Energy Management System (EnMS) at a region or country level. The impacts of ISO 50001 EnMS include energy, CO2 emissions, and cost savings. This internationally recognized and transparent methodology has been embodied in a user friendly Microsoft Excel® based tool called ISO 50001 Impact Estimator Tool (IET 50001). However, the tool inputs are critical in order to get accurate and defensible results. This report is intended to document the data sources used and assumptions made to calculate the global impact of ISO 50001 EnMS.

  12. Potential recovery for Reissner--Mindlin and Kirchhoff--Love plate models using global Carleman estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osses, Axel; Palacios, Benjamín

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two linear plate models, namely the Reissner–Mindlin system (R–M) and the Kirchhoff–Love equation (K–L), which come from linear elasticity. We prove global Carleman inequalities for both models with boundary observations and under a suitable hypothesis on the parameters. We use these estimates to study the inverse problem of recovering a spatially dependent potential from knowledge of Neumann boundary data. We obtain L 2 -Lipschitz stability for K–L and H 1 -Lipschitz stability for R–M under the assumption that the potentials are equal at the boundary. (paper)

  13. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  14. Probing the global potential energy minimum of (CH2O)2: THz absorption spectrum of (CH2O)2 in solid neon and para-hydrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, J; Voute, A; Mihrin, D; Heimdal, J; Berg, R W; Torsson, M; Wugt Larsen, R

    2017-06-28

    The true global potential energy minimum configuration of the formaldehyde dimer (CH 2 O) 2 , including the presence of a single or a double weak intermolecular CH⋯O hydrogen bond motif, has been a long-standing subject among both experimentalists and theoreticians as two different energy minima conformations of C s and C 2h symmetry have almost identical energies. The present work demonstrates how the class of large-amplitude hydrogen bond vibrational motion probed in the THz region provides excellent direct spectroscopic observables for these weak intermolecular CH⋯O hydrogen bond motifs. The combination of concentration dependency measurements, observed isotopic spectral shifts associated with H/D substitutions and dedicated annealing procedures, enables the unambiguous assignment of three large-amplitude infrared active hydrogen bond vibrational modes for the non-planar C s configuration of (CH 2 O) 2 embedded in cryogenic neon and enriched para-hydrogen matrices. A (semi)-empirical value for the change of vibrational zero-point energy of 5.5 ± 0.3 kJ mol -1 is proposed for the dimerization process. These THz spectroscopic observations are complemented by CCSD(T)-F12/aug-cc-pV5Z (electronic energies) and MP2/aug-cc-pVQZ (force fields) electronic structure calculations yielding a (semi)-empirical value of 13.7 ± 0.3 kJ mol -1 for the dissociation energy D 0 of this global potential energy minimum.

  15. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Massari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  16. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  17. Estimating Anthropogenic Emissions of Hydrogen Chloride and Fine Particulate Chloride in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, X.; Wang, T.; Wang, S.; Zhang, L.

    2017-12-01

    Nitryl chloride (ClNO2) can significantly impact the atmospheric photochemistry via photolysis and subsequent reactions of chlorine radical with other gases. The formation of ClNO2 in the atmosphere is sensitive to the emissions of chlorine-containing particulates from oceanic and anthropogenic sources. For China, the only available anthropogenic chlorine emission inventory was compiled for the year 1990 with a coarse resolution of 1 degree. In this study, we developed an up-to-date anthropogenic inventory of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and fine particulate chloride (Cl-) emissions in China for the year 2014, including coal burning, industrial processes, biomass burning and waste burning. Bottom-up and top-down methodologies were combined. Detailed local data (e.g. Cl content in coal, control technologies, etc.) were collected and applied. In order to improve the spatial resolution of emissions, detailed point source information were collected for coal-fired power plants, cement factories, iron & steel factories and waste incineration factories. Uncertainties of this emission inventory and their major causes were analyzed using the Monte Carlo method. This work enables better quantification of the ClNO2 production and impact over China.

  18. Equilibrium based analytical model for estimation of pressure magnification during deflagration of hydrogen air mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karanam, Aditya; Sharma, Pavan K.; Ganju, Sunil; Singh, Ram Kumar [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Mumbai (India). Reactor Safety Div.

    2016-12-15

    During postulated accident sequences in nuclear reactors, hydrogen may get released from the core and form a flammable mixture in the surrounding containment structure. Ignition of such mixtures and the subsequent pressure rise are an imminent threat for safe and sustainable operation of nuclear reactors. Methods for evaluating post ignition characteristics are important for determining the design safety margins in such scenarios. This study presents two thermo-chemical models for determining the post ignition state. The first model is based on internal energy balance while the second model uses the concept of element potentials to minimize the free energy of the system with internal energy imposed as a constraint. Predictions from both the models have been compared against published data over a wide range of mixture compositions. Important differences in the regions close to flammability limits and for stoichiometric mixtures have been identified and explained. The equilibrium model has been validated for varied temperatures and pressures representative of initial conditions that may be present in the containment during accidents. Special emphasis has been given to the understanding of the role of dissociation and its effect on equilibrium pressure, temperature and species concentrations.

  19. Equilibrium based analytical model for estimation of pressure magnification during deflagration of hydrogen air mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanam, Aditya; Sharma, Pavan K.; Ganju, Sunil; Singh, Ram Kumar

    2016-01-01

    During postulated accident sequences in nuclear reactors, hydrogen may get released from the core and form a flammable mixture in the surrounding containment structure. Ignition of such mixtures and the subsequent pressure rise are an imminent threat for safe and sustainable operation of nuclear reactors. Methods for evaluating post ignition characteristics are important for determining the design safety margins in such scenarios. This study presents two thermo-chemical models for determining the post ignition state. The first model is based on internal energy balance while the second model uses the concept of element potentials to minimize the free energy of the system with internal energy imposed as a constraint. Predictions from both the models have been compared against published data over a wide range of mixture compositions. Important differences in the regions close to flammability limits and for stoichiometric mixtures have been identified and explained. The equilibrium model has been validated for varied temperatures and pressures representative of initial conditions that may be present in the containment during accidents. Special emphasis has been given to the understanding of the role of dissociation and its effect on equilibrium pressure, temperature and species concentrations.

  20. Support vector regression methodology for estimating global solar radiation in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Gairaa, Kacem; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) has been a major goal for solar energy applications. In this paper we show the possibility of developing a simple model based on the Support Vector Regression (SVM-R), which could be used to estimate DGSR on the horizontal surface in Algeria based only on sunshine ratio as input. The SVM model has been developed and tested using a data set recorded over three years (2005-2007). The data was collected at the Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) in Ghardaïa city. The data collected between 2005-2006 are used to train the model while the 2007 data are used to test the performance of the selected model. The measured and the estimated values of DGSR were compared during the testing phase statistically using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Square Error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient (r2), which amount to 1.59(MJ/m2), 8.46 and 97,4%, respectively. The obtained results show that the SVM-R is highly qualified for DGSR estimation using only sunshine ratio.

  1. Assessing the Utility of Hydrogen, Carbon and Nitrogen Stable Isotopes in Estimating Consumer Allochthony in Two Shallow Eutrophic Lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jari Syväranta

    Full Text Available Hydrogen stable isotopes (δ2H have recently been used to complement δ13C and δ15N in food web studies due to their potentially greater power to separate sources of organic matter in aquatic food webs. However, uncertainties remain regarding the use of δ2H, since little is known about the potential variation in the amount of exchangeable hydrogen (Hex among common sample materials or the patterns of δ2H when entire food webs are considered. We assessed differences in Hex among the typical sample materials in freshwater studies and used δ2H, δ13C and δ15N to compare their effectiveness in tracing allochthonous matter in food webs of two small temperate lakes. Our results showed higher average amounts of Hex in animal tissues (27% in fish and macroinvertebrates, 19% in zooplankton compared to most plant material (15% in terrestrial plants and 8% in seston/periphyton, with the exception of aquatic vascular plants (23%, referred to as macrophytes. The amount of Hex correlated strongly with sample lipid content (inferred from C:N ratios in fish and zooplankton samples. Overall, the three isotopes provided good separation of sources (seston, periphyton, macrophytes and allochthonous organic matter, particularly the δ2H followed by δ13C. Aquatic macrophytes revealed unexpectedly high δ2H values, having more elevated δ2H values than terrestrial organic matter with direct implications for estimating consumer allochthony. Organic matter from macrophytes significantly contributed to the food webs in both lakes highlighting the need to include macrophytes as a potential source when using stable isotopes to estimate trophic structures and contributions from allochthonous sources.

  2. Global sensitivity analysis of GEOS-Chem modeled ozone and hydrogen oxides during the INTEX campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. Christian

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Making sense of modeled atmospheric composition requires not only comparison to in situ measurements but also knowing and quantifying the sensitivity of the model to its input factors. Using a global sensitivity method involving the simultaneous perturbation of many chemical transport model input factors, we find the model uncertainty for ozone (O3, hydroxyl radical (OH, and hydroperoxyl radical (HO2 mixing ratios, and apportion this uncertainty to specific model inputs for the DC-8 flight tracks corresponding to the NASA Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX campaigns of 2004 and 2006. In general, when uncertainties in modeled and measured quantities are accounted for, we find agreement between modeled and measured oxidant mixing ratios with the exception of ozone during the Houston flights of the INTEX-B campaign and HO2 for the flights over the northernmost Pacific Ocean during INTEX-B. For ozone and OH, modeled mixing ratios were most sensitive to a bevy of emissions, notably lightning NOx, various surface NOx sources, and isoprene. HO2 mixing ratios were most sensitive to CO and isoprene emissions as well as the aerosol uptake of HO2. With ozone and OH being generally overpredicted by the model, we find better agreement between modeled and measured vertical profiles when reducing NOx emissions from surface as well as lightning sources.

  3. Global robust stability of delayed neural networks: Estimating upper limit of norm of delayed connection weight matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Vimal

    2007-01-01

    The question of estimating the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 , which is a key step in some recently reported global robust stability criteria for delayed neural networks, is revisited ( B denotes the delayed connection weight matrix). Recently, Cao, Huang, and Qu have given an estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 . In the present paper, an alternative estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 is highlighted. It is shown that the alternative estimate may yield some new global robust stability results

  4. Estimating the impact of +2 degrees of global warming on European Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Konstantopoulos, Konstantinos; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The impact of a potential global temperature rise by 2oC on tourism is examined, within the framework of IMPACT2C FP7 project. The period of the specific increase was defined according to the global mean temperature projections from two GCM, BCM and HadCM3Q3. Simulations from two RCMs, driven by the aforementioned GCMs, in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) which is a measure of climate favorability for outdoor leisure and recreational activities. Climate favorability related to summer tourism is expected to increase in most European countries moving from south to north. In the opposite, countries that traditionally attract "sun and sand" tourists like Italy, Spain, Greece, France, Portugal, Cyprus are projected to become uncomfortably hot for the months of the peak summer season. Both of the examined models provide consistent information about the direction of change, however SMHI shows a greater change in future TCI. The TCI between 1960 and 2000 was associated to bednights data, to reveal the correlation of the empirical index with a real tourism indicator. The resulted correlation function was then applied to the 2oC period, estimating the effect of the specific temperature rise to future tourism activity expressed in terms of projected bednights.

  5. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  6. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  7. Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massof, Robert W; Schmidt, Karen M; Laby, Daniel M; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

    2013-01-01

    Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model

  8. MODIS-based global terrestrial estimates of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Y.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Kobayashi, H.; Li, J.; van Ingen, C.; Agarwal, D.; Jackson, K.; Humphrey, M.

    2010-12-01

    We propose a novel approach to quantify gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at global scale (5 km resolution with 8-day interval). The MODIS-based, process-oriented approach couples photosynthesis, evaporation, two-leaf energy balance and nitrogen, which are different from the previous satellite-based approaches. We couple information from MODIS with flux towers to assess the drivers and parameters of GPP and ET. Incoming shortwave radiation components (direct and diffuse PAR, NIR) under all sky condition are modeled using a Monte-Carlo based atmospheric radiative transfer model. The MODIS Level 2 Atmospheric products are gridded and overlaid with MODIS Land products to produce spatially compatible forcing variables. GPP is modeled using a two-leaf model (sunlit and shaded leaf) and the maximum carboxylation rate is estimated using albedo-Nitrogen-leaf trait relations. The GPP is used to calculate canopy conductance via Ball-Berry model. Then, we apply Penman-Monteith equation to calculate evapotranspiration. The process-oriented approach allows us to investigate the main drivers of GPP and ET at global scale. Finally we explore the spatial and temporal variability of GPP and ET at global scale.

  9. Estimating the marginal cost of reducing global fossil fuel CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Barns, D.W.; McDonald, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper estimates the marginal, total, and average cost and effectiveness of carbon taxes applied either by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members alone, or as part of a global cooperative strategy, to reduce potential future emissions and their direct implications for employment in the US coal industry. Two sets of cases are examined, one set in which OECD members acts alone, and another set in which the world acts in concert. In each case set taxes are examined which achieve four alternative levels of emissions reduction: halve the rate of emissions growth, no emissions growth, 20% reduction from 1988 levels, and 50% reduction from 1988 levels. For the global cooperation case, carbon tax rates of $32, $113, $161, and $517 per metric ton of carbon (mtC) were needed in the year 2025 to achieve the objectives. Total costs were respectively $40, $178, $253, and $848 billions of 1990 US dollars per year in the year 2025. Average costs were $32, $55, $59, and $135 per mtC. Costs were significantly higher in the cases in which the OECD members states acted alone. OECD member states, acting alone, could not reduce global emissions by 50% or 20% relative to 1988, given reference case assumptions regarding developing and recently planned nations economic growth

  10. Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Vasileva, Siyana; Nivet, Marie Laure; Canaletti, Jean-Louis; Cristofari, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Calculating global solar irradiation from global horizontal irradiation only is a difficult task, especially when the time step is small and the data are not averaged. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to realize this conversion. The ANN is optimized and tested on the basis of five years of solar data; the accuracy of the optimal configuration is around 6% for the RRMSE (relative root mean square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (relative mean absolute value) i.e. a better performance than the empirical correlations available in the literature. -- Highlights: ► ANN (Artificial Neural Network) methodology applied to hourly global solar irradiation in order to estimate tilted irradiations. ► Model validation with more than 23,000 data. ► Comparison with “conventional” models. ► The precision in the results is better than with empirical correlations. ► 6% for the RMSE (root means square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Value).

  11. Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

    2016-02-01

    I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

  12. Onboard Hydrogen/Helium Sensors in Support of the Global Technical Regulation: An Assessment of Performance in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Crash Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Post, M. B.; Burgess, R.; Rivkin, C.; Buttner, W.; O' Malley, K.; Ruiz, A.

    2012-09-01

    Automobile manufacturers in North America, Europe, and Asia project a 2015 release of commercial hydrogen fuel cell powered light-duty road vehicles. These vehicles will be for general consumer applications, albeit initially in select markets but with much broader market penetration expected by 2025. To assure international harmony, North American, European, and Asian regulatory representatives are striving to base respective national regulations on an international safety standard, the Global Technical Regulation (GTR), Hydrogen Fueled Vehicle, which is part of an international agreement pertaining to wheeled vehicles and equipment for wheeled vehicles.

  13. Regional and global modeling estimates of policy relevant background ozone over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Christopher; Jung, Jaegun; Downey, Nicole; Johnson, Jeremiah; Jimenez, Michele; Yarwood, Greg; Morris, Ralph

    2012-02-01

    Policy Relevant Background (PRB) ozone, as defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), refers to ozone concentrations that would occur in the absence of all North American anthropogenic emissions. PRB enters into the calculation of health risk benefits, and as the US ozone standard approaches background levels, PRB is increasingly important in determining the feasibility and cost of compliance. As PRB is a hypothetical construct, modeling is a necessary tool. Since 2006 EPA has relied on global modeling to establish PRB for their regulatory analyses. Recent assessments with higher resolution global models exhibit improved agreement with remote observations and modest upward shifts in PRB estimates. This paper shifts the paradigm to a regional model (CAMx) run at 12 km resolution, for which North American boundary conditions were provided by a low-resolution version of the GEOS-Chem global model. We conducted a comprehensive model inter-comparison, from which we elucidate differences in predictive performance against ozone observations and differences in temporal and spatial background variability over the US. In general, CAMx performed better in replicating observations at remote monitoring sites, and performance remained better at higher concentrations. While spring and summer mean PRB predicted by GEOS-Chem ranged 20-45 ppb, CAMx predicted PRB ranged 25-50 ppb and reached well over 60 ppb in the west due to event-oriented phenomena such as stratospheric intrusion and wildfires. CAMx showed a higher correlation between modeled PRB and total observed ozone, which is significant for health risk assessments. A case study during April 2006 suggests that stratospheric exchange of ozone is underestimated in both models on an event basis. We conclude that wildfires, lightning NO x and stratospheric intrusions contribute a significant level of uncertainty in estimating PRB, and that PRB will require careful consideration in the ozone standard setting process.

  14. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  15. Removal of Atmospheric Ethanol by Wet Deposition: A Global Flux Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix, J. D. D.; Willey, J. D.; Avery, B.; Thomas, R.; Mullaugh, K.; Kieber, R. J.; Mead, R. N.; Helms, J. R.; Campos, L.; Shimizu, M. S.; Guibbina, F.

    2017-12-01

    Global ethanol fuel consumption has increased exponentially over the last two decades and the US plans to double annual renewable fuel production in the next five years as required by the renewable fuel standard. Regardless of the technology or feedstock used to produce the renewable fuel, the primary end product will be ethanol. Increasing ethanol fuel consumption will have an impact on the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and increase atmospheric concentrations of the secondary pollutant peroxyacetyl nitrate as well a variety of VOCs with relatively high ozone reactivities (e.g. ethanol, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde). Despite these documented effects of ethanol emissions on atmospheric chemistry, current global atmospheric ethanol budget models have large uncertainties in the magnitude of ethanol sources and sinks. The presented work investigates the global wet deposition sink by providing the first estimate of the global wet deposition flux of ethanol (2.4 ± 1.6 Tg/yr) based on empirical wet deposition data (219 samples collected at 12 locations). This suggests the wet deposition sink removes between 6 and 17% of atmospheric ethanol annually. Concentrations of ethanol in marine wet deposition (25 ± 6 nM) were an order of magnitude less than in the majority of terrestrial deposition (345 ± 280 nM). Terrestrial deposition collected in locations impacted by high local sources of biofuel usage and locations downwind from ethanol distilleries were an order of magnitude higher in ethanol concentration (3090 ± 448 nM) compared to deposition collected in terrestrial locations not impacted by these sources. These results indicate that wet deposition of ethanol is heavily influenced by local sources and ethanol emission impacts on air quality may be more significant in highly populated areas. As established and developing countries continue to rapidly increase ethanol fuel consumption and subsequent emissions, understanding the magnitude of all ethanol sources and

  16. Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

    2012-04-01

    Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

  17. Empirical models for the estimation of global solar radiation with sunshine hours on horizontal surface in various cities of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadiwala, M.S.; Usman, A.; Akhtar, M.; Jamil, K.

    2013-01-01

    In developing countries like Pakistan the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Only five long-period locations data of solar radiation data is available in Pakistan (Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Multan and Peshawar). These locations almost encompass the different geographical features of Pakistan. For this reason in this study the Mean monthly global solar radiation has been estimated using empirical models of Angstrom, FAO, Glover Mc-Culloch, Sangeeta & Tiwari for the diversity of approach and use of climatic and geographical parameters. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained by these models have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values. The outcome of these empirical models will assist the researchers working on solar energy estimation of the location having similar conditions

  18. Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Suman; Patra, Pulak Kumar; Banerjee, Saon; Narsimhaiah, Lakshmi; Sarath Chandran, M. A.; Vijaya Kumar, P.; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjib

    2018-06-01

    In developing countries like India, global solar radiation (GSR) is measured at very few locations due to non-availability of radiation measuring instruments. To overcome the inadequacy of GSR measurements, scientists developed many empirical models to estimate location-wise GSR. In the present study, three simple forms of Angstrom equation [Angstrom-Prescott (A-P), Ogelman, and Bahel] were used to estimate GSR at six geographically and climatologically different locations across India with an objective to find out a set of common constants usable for whole country. Results showed that GSR values varied from 9.86 to 24.85 MJ m-2 day-1 for different stations. It was also observed that A-P model showed smaller errors than Ogelman and Bahel models. All the models well estimated GSR, as the 1:1 line between measured and estimated values showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ≥ 0.81 for all locations. Measured data of GSR pooled over six selected locations was analyzed to obtain a new set of constants for A-P equation which can be applicable throughout the country. The set of constants (a = 0.29 and b = 0.40) was named as "One India One Constant (OIOC)," and the model was named as "MOIOC." Furthermore, the developed constants are validated statistically for another six locations of India and produce close estimation. High R 2 values (≥ 76%) along with low mean bias error (MBE) ranging from - 0.64 to 0.05 MJ m-2 day-1 revealed that the new constants are able to predict GSR with lesser percentage of error.

  19. Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

    2011-12-01

    In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our

  20. Estimating a planetary magnetic field with time-dependent global MHD simulations using an adjoint approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Nabert

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of the solar wind with a planetary magnetic field causes electrical currents that modify the magnetic field distribution around the planet. We present an approach to estimating the planetary magnetic field from in situ spacecraft data using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulation approach. The method is developed with respect to the upcoming BepiColombo mission to planet Mercury aimed at determining the planet's magnetic field and its interior electrical conductivity distribution. In contrast to the widely used empirical models, global MHD simulations allow the calculation of the strongly time-dependent interaction process of the solar wind with the planet. As a first approach, we use a simple MHD simulation code that includes time-dependent solar wind and magnetic field parameters. The planetary parameters are estimated by minimizing the misfit of spacecraft data and simulation results with a gradient-based optimization. As the calculation of gradients with respect to many parameters is usually very time-consuming, we investigate the application of an adjoint MHD model. This adjoint MHD model is generated by an automatic differentiation tool to compute the gradients efficiently. The computational cost for determining the gradient with an adjoint approach is nearly independent of the number of parameters. Our method is validated by application to THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms magnetosheath data to estimate Earth's dipole moment.

  1. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  2. An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

    2013-01-01

    An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

  3. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  4. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  5. Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pires, Sara Monteiro; Fischer-Walker, Christa L; Lanata, Claudio F

    2015-01-01

    Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the gl...

  6. A New Global LAI Product and Its Use for Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. M.; Liu, R.; Ju, W.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    For improving the estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a new time series of the leaf area index (LAI) is generated for the global land surface at 8 km resolution from 1981 to 2012 by combining AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. This product differs from existing LAI products in the following two aspects: (1) the non-random spatial distribution of leaves with the canopy is considered, and (2) the seasonal variation of the vegetation background is included. The non-randomness of the leaf spatial distribution in the canopy is considered using the second vegetation structural parameter named clumping index (CI), which quantifies the deviation of the leaf spatial distribution from the random case. Using the MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function product, a global map of CI is produced at 500 m resolution. In our LAI algorithm, CI is used to convert the effective LAI obtained from mono-angle remote sensing into the true LAI, otherwise LAI would be considerably underestimated. The vegetation background is soil in crop, grass and shrub but includes soil, grass, moss, and litter in forests. Through processing a large volume of MISR data from 2000 to 2010, monthly red and near-infrared reflectances of the vegetation background is mapped globally at 1 km resolution. This new LAI product has been validated extensively using ground-based LAI measurements distributed globally. In carbon cycle modeling, the use of CI in addition to LAI allows for accurate separation of sunlit and shaded leaves as an important step in terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration modeling. Carbon flux measurements over 100 sites over the globe are used to validate an ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The validated model is run globally at 8 km resolution for the period from 1981 to 2012 using the LAI product and other spatial datasets. The modeled results suggest that changes in vegetation structure as quantified

  7. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  8. Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-06-01

    In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

  9. An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

    2012-01-01

    Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

  10. Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Staci R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. These methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.

  11. New horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey based on robust coplot supported genetic programming technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirhan, Haydar; Kayhan Atilgan, Yasemin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Precise horizontal global solar radiation estimation models are proposed for Turkey. • Genetic programming technique is used to construct the models. • Robust coplot analysis is applied to reduce the impact of outlier observations. • Better estimation and prediction properties are observed for the models. - Abstract: Renewable energy sources have been attracting more and more attention of researchers due to the diminishing and harmful nature of fossil energy sources. Because of the importance of solar energy as a renewable energy source, an accurate determination of significant covariates and their relationships with the amount of global solar radiation reaching the Earth is a critical research problem. There are numerous meteorological and terrestrial covariates that can be used in the analysis of horizontal global solar radiation. Some of these covariates are highly correlated with each other. It is possible to find a large variety of linear or non-linear models to explain the amount of horizontal global solar radiation. However, models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the smallest set of covariates should be obtained. In this study, use of the robust coplot technique to reduce the number of covariates before going forward with advanced modelling techniques is considered. After reducing the dimensionality of model space, yearly and monthly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey are built by using the genetic programming technique. It is observed that application of robust coplot analysis is helpful for building precise models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the minimum number of covariates without suffering from outlier observations and the multicollinearity problem. Consequently, over a dataset of Turkey, precise yearly and monthly mean daily global solar radiation estimation models are introduced using the model spaces obtained by robust coplot technique and

  12. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  13. Muon g-2 Estimates. Can One Trust Effective Lagrangians and Global Fits?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L.

    2015-07-01

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) Model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an Effective Lagrangian (BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework; a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e + e - annihilation into the 6 final states - π + π - , π 0 γ, ηγ, π + π - π 0 , K + K - , K L K S - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a th μ of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved compared to its partner derived from integrating the measured spectra directly. However, most spectra for the process e + e - → π + π - undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, and one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a th μ . However, an iterated fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied succesfully to the e + e - → π + π - data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE (including the latest sample) and BaBar. The iterated fit solution is shown to be further improved and leads to a value for a μ different from aexp above the 4σ level. The contribution of the π + π - intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV to a μ derived from the iterated fit benefits from an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. The main issue raised in this study and the kind of solution proposed may be of concern for other data driven methods when the data samples are dominated by global normalization uncertainties.

  14. Towards continuous global measurements and optimal emission estimates of NF3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, T.; Muhle, J.; Salameh, P.; Harth, C.; Ivy, D. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2011-12-01

    We present an analytical method for the continuous in situ measurement of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) - an anthropogenic gas with a global warming potential of ~16800 over a 100 year time horizon. NF3 is not included in national reporting emissions inventories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, it is a rapidly emerging greenhouse gas due to emission from a growing number of manufacturing facilities with increasing output and modern end-use applications, namely in microcircuit etching, and in production of flat panel displays and thin-film photovoltaic cells. Despite success in measuring the most volatile long lived halogenated species such as CF4, the Medusa preconcentration GC/MS system of Miller et al. (2008) is unable to detect NF3 under remote operation. Using altered techniques of gas separation and chromatography after initial preconcentration, we are now able to make continuous atmospheric measurements of NF3 with average precisions NF3 produced. Emission factors are shown to have reduced over the last decade; however, rising production and end-use have caused the average global atmospheric concentration to double between 2005 and 2011 i.e. half the atmospheric NF3 present today originates from emissions after 2005. Finally we show the first continuous in situ measurements from La Jolla, California, illustrating how global deployment of our technique could improve the temporal and spatial scale of NF3 'top-down' emission estimates over the coming years. These measurements will be important for independent verification of emissions should NF3 be regulated under a new climate treaty.

  15. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Steege, Hans; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Killeen, Timothy J.; Laurance, William F.; Peres, Carlos A.; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Salomão, Rafael P.; Castilho, Carolina V.; Amaral, Iêda Leão; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; Magnusson, William E.; Phillips, Oliver L.; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Irume, Mariana Victória; Martins, Maria Pires; Molino, Jean-François; Sabatier, Daniel; Wittmann, Florian; López, Dairon Cárdenas; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Terborgh, John; Casula, Katia Regina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.; Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Assis, Rafael L.; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Camargo, José Luís; Laurance, Susan G. W.; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Costa, Flávia; Targhetta, Natalia; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Brienen, Roel; Castellanos, Hernán; Duivenvoorden, Joost F.; Mogollón, Hugo F.; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Aymard C., Gerardo A.; Comiskey, James A.; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Diaz, Pablo Roberto Stevenson; Vincentini, Alberto; Emilio, Thaise; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Alonso, Alfonso; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Neill, David; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; Souza, Fernanda Coelho; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Gribel, Rogerio; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Pansonato, Marcelo Petrati; Venticinque, Eduardo; Fine, Paul; Toledo, Marisol; Baraloto, Chris; Cerón, Carlos; Engel, Julien; Henkel, Terry W.; Jimenez, Eliana M.; Maas, Paul; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Baker, Tim R.; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; da Silva, Naara Ferreira; Fuentes, Alfredo; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Schöngart, Jochen; Silman, Miles R.; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Phillips, Juan Fernando; van Andel, Tinde R.; von Hildebrand, Patricio; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; de Castro, Deborah; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Gonzales, Therany; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Hoffman, Bruce; Malhi, Yadvinder; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Ruschell, Ademir R.; Silva, Natalino; Vela, César I. A.; Vos, Vincent A.; Zent, Eglée L.; Zent, Stanford; Cano, Angela; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Oliveira, Alexandre A.; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Sierra, Rodrigo; Tirado, Milton; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; van der Heijden, Geertje; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vriesendorp, Corine; Wang, Ophelia; Young, Kenneth R.; Baider, Claudia; Balslev, Henrik; de Castro, Natalia; Farfan-Rios, William; Ferreira, Cid; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mesones, Italo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Villarroel, Daniel; Zagt, Roderick; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Milliken, William; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Pansini, Susamar; Pauletto, Daniela; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis H.; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century. PMID:26702442

  16. Carbon Dioxide Evasion from Boreal Lakes: Drivers, Variability and Revised Global Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastie, A. T.; Lauerwald, R.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Sobek, S.; Verpoorter, C.; Regnier, P. A. G.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon dioxide evasion (FCO2) from lakes and reservoirs is established as an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, a fact reflected by the inclusion of these waterbodies in the most recent IPCC assessment report. In this study we developed a statistical model driven by environmental geodata, to predict CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in boreal lakes, and to create the first high resolution map (0.5°) of boreal (50°- 70°) lake pCO2. The resulting map of pCO2 was combined with lake area (lakes >0.01km2) from the recently developed GLOWABO database (Verpoorter et al., 2014) and estimates of gas transfer velocity k, to produce the first high resolution map of boreal lake FCO2. Before training our model, the geodata as well as approximately 27,000 samples of `open water' (excluding periods of ice cover) pCO2 from the boreal region, were gridded at 0.5° resolution and log transformed where necessary. A multilinear regression was used to derive a prediction equation for log10 pCO2 as a function of log10 lake area, net primary productivity (NPP), precipitation, wind speed and soil pH (r2= 0.66), and then applied in ArcGIS to build the map of pCO2. After validation, the map of boreal lake pCO2 was used to derive a map of boreal lake FCO2. For the boreal region we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO2 of 930 μatm and FCO2 of 170 (121-243) Tg C yr-1. Our estimate of FCO2 will soon be updated with the incorporation of the smallest lakes (<0.01km2). Despite the current exclusion of the smallest lakes, our estimate is higher than the highest previous estimate of approximately 110 Tg C yr-1 (Aufdenkampe et al, 2011). Moreover, our empirical approach driven by environmental geodata can be used as the basis for estimating future FCO2 from boreal lakes, and their sensitivity to climate change.

  17. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  18. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd El Razek, Mohamed Magdy; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.

    Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral

  19. Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we use the MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) model and Kalman filtering techniques to optimally estimate N2O emissions from seven source regions around the globe. The MATCH model was used with NCEP assimilated winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from July 1st 1996 to December 31st 2000. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from six national/global networks (AGAGE, CMDL (HATS), CMDL (CCGG), CSIRO, CSIR and NIES), at 48 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal variations. The Kalman filter was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for January 1st 1997 to June 30th 2000. The inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 130 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions from each region based on previous studies. We conclude that the global N2O emission flux is about 16.2 TgN/yr, with {34.9±1.7%} from South America and Africa, {34.6±1.5%} from South Asia, {13.9±1.5%} from China/Japan/South East Asia, {8.0±1.9%} from all oceans, {6.4±1.1%} from North America and North and West Asia, {2.6±0.4%} from Europe, and {0.9±0.7%} from New Zealand and Australia. The errors here include the measurement standard deviation, calibration differences among the six groups, grid volume/measurement site mis-match errors estimated from the model, and a procedure to account approximately for the modeling errors.

  20. A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate daily global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Ning; Qin, Jun; Yang, Kun; Sun, Jiulin

    2011-01-01

    Surface global solar radiation (GSR) is the primary renewable energy in nature. Geostationary satellite data are used to map GSR in many inversion algorithms in which ground GSR measurements merely serve to validate the satellite retrievals. In this study, a simple algorithm with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling is proposed to explore the non-linear physical relationship between ground daily GSR measurements and Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) all-channel observations in an effort to fully exploit information contained in both data sets. Singular value decomposition is implemented to extract the principal signals from satellite data and a novel method is applied to enhance ANN performance at high altitude. A three-layer feed-forward ANN model is trained with one year of daily GSR measurements at ten ground sites. This trained ANN is then used to map continuous daily GSR for two years, and its performance is validated at all 83 ground sites in China. The evaluation result demonstrates that this algorithm can quickly and efficiently build the ANN model that estimates daily GSR from geostationary satellite data with good accuracy in both space and time. -- Highlights: → A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate GSR from geostationary satellite data. → ANN model fully exploits both the information from satellite and ground measurements. → Good performance of the ANN model is comparable to that of the classical models. → Surface elevation and infrared information enhance GSR inversion.

  1. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betowski, Don; Bevington, Charles; Allison, Thomas C

    2016-01-19

    Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained through scaling of both vibrational frequencies and intensities. The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed RE values.

  2. Empirical models validation to estimate global solar irradiance on a horizontal plan in Ouargla, Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gougui, Abdelmoumen; Djafour, Ahmed; Khelfaoui, Narimane; Boutelli, Halima

    2018-05-01

    In this paper a comparison between three models for predicting the total solar flux falling on a horizontal surface has been processed. Capderou, Perrin & Brichambaut and Hottel models used to estimate the global solar radiation, the models are identified and evaluated using MATLAB environment. The recorded data have been obtained from a small weather station installed at the LAGE laboratory of Ouargla University, Algeria. Solar radiation data have been recorded using four sample days, every 15thday of the month, (March, April, May and October). The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) have been also calculated so as that to test the reliability of the proposed models. A comparisons between the measured and the calculated values have been made. The results obtained in this study depict that Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models are more effective to estimate the total solar intensity on a horizontal surface for clear sky over Ouargla city (Latitude of 31° 95' N, Longitude of 5° 24' E, and Altitude of 0.141km above Mean Sea Level), these models dedicated from meteorological parameters, geographical location and number of days since the first January. Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models give the best tendency with a CC of 0.985-0.999 and 0.932-0.995 consecutively further, Hottel give's a CC of 0.617-0.942.

  3. A simple formula for estimating global solar radiation in central arid deserts of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabziparvar, Ali A.

    2008-01-01

    Over the last two decades, using simple radiation models has been an interesting task to estimate daily solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts such as those in Iran, where the number of solar observation sites is poor. In Iran, most of the models used so far, have been validated for a few specific locations based on short-term solar observations. In this work, three different radiation models (Sabbagh, Paltridge, Daneshyar) have been revised to predict the climatology of monthly average daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in various cities in central arid deserts of Iran. The modifications are made by the inclusion of altitude, monthly total number of dusty days and seasonal variation of Sun-Earth distance. A new height-dependent formula is proposed based on MBE, MABE, MPE and RMSE statistical analysis. It is shown that the revised Sabbagh method can be a good estimator for the prediction of global solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts with an average error of less than 2%, that performs a more accurate prediction than those in the previous studies. The required data for the suggested method are usually available in most meteorological sites. For the locations, where some of the input data are not reported, an alternative approach is presented. (author)

  4. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    Objective To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. Design, setting and outcome measures EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks’ gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005–2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. Conclusions By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. PMID:28667189

  5. Metadata-Assisted Global Motion Estimation for Medium-Altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Video Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongguang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global motion estimation (GME is a key technology in unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing (UAVRS. However, when a UAV’s motion and behavior change significantly or the image information is not rich, traditional image-based methods for GME often perform poorly. Introducing bottom metadata can improve precision in a large-scale motion condition and reduce the dependence on unreliable image information. GME is divided into coarse and residual GME through coordinate transformation and based on the study hypotheses. In coarse GME, an auxiliary image is built to convert image matching from a wide baseline condition to a narrow baseline one. In residual GME, a novel information and contrast feature detection algorithm is proposed for big-block matching to maximize the use of reliable image information and ensure that the contents of interest are well estimated. Additionally, an image motion monitor is designed to select the appropriate processing strategy by monitoring the motion scales of translation, rotation, and zoom. A medium-altitude UAV is employed to collect three types of large-scale motion datasets. Peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR and motion scale are computed. This study’s result is encouraging and applicable to other medium- or high-altitude UAVs with a similar system structure.

  6. DUE GlobBiomass - Estimates of Biomass on a Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

    2017-12-01

    For the last three years, a new ESA Data User Element (DUE) project had focussed on creating improved knowledge about the Essential Climate Variable Biomass. The main purpose of the DUE GlobBiomass project is to better characterize and to reduce uncertainties of AGB estimates by developing an innovative synergistic mapping approach in five regional sites (Sweden, Poland, Mexico, Kalimantan, South Africa) for the epochs 2005, 2010 and 2015 and for one global map for the year 2010. The project team includes leading Earth Observation experts of Europe and is linked through Partnership Agreements with further national bodies from Brazil, Canada, China, Russia and South Africa. GlobBiomass has demonstrated how EO observation data can be integrated with in situ measurements and ecological understanding to provide improved biomass estimates that can be effectively exploited by users. The target users had mainly be drawn from the climate and carbon cycle modelling communities and included users concerned with carbon emissions and uptake due to biomass changes within initiatives such as REDD+. GlobBiomass provided a harmonised structure that can be exploited to address user needs for biomass information, but will be capable of being progressively refined as new data and methods become available. This presentation will give an overview of the technical prerequisites and final results of the GlobBiomass project.

  7. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005-2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Measurement of Global Solar Radiation data using Raspberry Pi and its estimation using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priya S.Shanmuga

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The demand for more efficient and environmentally benign, non-conventional sources of energy came into picture due to increasing demands for human comforts. Solar energy is now the ultimate option. In this paper, the instruments used to measure the solar radiation at Innovation Centre, MIT Manipal were connected to a Raspberry Pi to access the data remotely. Genetic Algorithms were formulated, so that the monthly mean global solar radiation in Manipal can be effectively estimated. Meteorological data such as humidity, temperature, wind speed, etc. were used as inputs to train the networks. A successful network was made between the data loggers and the Raspberry Pi. The data collected by the data loggers from the devices are transmitted to the Raspberry Pi which in turn sends the data to an internal server. The Raspberry Pi can be accessed using any SSH client such as PuTTY. The meteorological data was collected for the years 2010-2014 in order to formulate the Artificial Intelligence models. The validity of the formulated models were checked by comparing the measured data with the estimated data using tools such as RMSE, correlation coefficient, etc. The modelling of solar radiation using GA was carried out in GeneXpro tools version 5.0.

  9. Estimation of Atmospheric Methane Surface Fluxes Using a Global 3-D Chemical Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Prinn, R.

    2003-12-01

    Accurate determination of atmospheric methane surface fluxes is an important and challenging problem in global biogeochemical cycles. We use inverse modeling to estimate annual, seasonal, and interannual CH4 fluxes between 1996 and 2001. The fluxes include 7 time-varying seasonal (3 wetland, rice, and 3 biomass burning) and 3 steady aseasonal (animals/waste, coal, and gas) global processes. To simulate atmospheric methane, we use the 3-D chemical transport model MATCH driven by NCEP reanalyzed observed winds at a resolution of T42 ( ˜2.8° x 2.8° ) in the horizontal and 28 levels (1000 - 3 mb) in the vertical. By combining existing datasets of individual processes, we construct a reference emissions field that represents our prior guess of the total CH4 surface flux. For the methane sink, we use a prescribed, annually-repeating OH field scaled to fit methyl chloroform observations. MATCH is used to produce both the reference run from the reference emissions, and the time-dependent sensitivities that relate individual emission processes to observations. The observational data include CH4 time-series from ˜15 high-frequency (in-situ) and ˜50 low-frequency (flask) observing sites. Most of the high-frequency data, at a time resolution of 40-60 minutes, have not previously been used in global scale inversions. In the inversion, the high-frequency data generally have greater weight than the weekly flask data because they better define the observational monthly means. The Kalman Filter is used as the optimal inversion technique to solve for emissions between 1996-2001. At each step in the inversion, new monthly observations are utilized and new emissions estimates are produced. The optimized emissions represent deviations from the reference emissions that lead to a better fit to the observations. The seasonal processes are optimized for each month, and contain the methane seasonality and interannual variability. The aseasonal processes, which are less variable, are

  10. Muon g-2 estimates: can one trust effective Lagrangians and global fits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benayoun, M., E-mail: benayoun@in2p3.fr [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); David, P. [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); LIED, Université Paris-Diderot/CNRS UMR 8236, 75013, Paris (France); DelBuono, L. [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); Jegerlehner, F. [Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Newtonstrasse 15, 12489, Berlin (Germany); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Platanenallee 6, 15738, Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-12-26

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an effective Lagrangian (Broken Hidden Local Symmetry, BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework. Based on it, a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into six final states—π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S}—and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sub μ}{sup th} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved in comparison to the standard approach of integrating the measured spectra directly. However, because most spectra for the annihilation process e{sup +}e{sup -}→π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sub μ}{sup th}, which could question the reliability of the global fit method. However, an iterated global fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied successfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -}→π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE, BaBar, and BESSIII. The iterated fit solution is shown to further improve the prediction for a{sub μ}, which we find to deviate from its experimental value above the 4σ level. The contribution to a{sub μ} of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV has an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results.

  11. Muon g - 2 estimates. Can one trust effective Lagrangians and global fits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L. [LPNHE des Universites Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, Paris (France); David, P. [LPNHE des Universites Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, Paris (France); LIED, Universite Paris-Diderot/CNRS UMR 8236, Paris (France); Jegerlehner, F. [Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Institut fuer Physik, Berlin (Germany); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-12-15

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an effective Lagrangian (Broken Hidden Local Symmetry, BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework. Based on it, a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into six final states - π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S} - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sub μ}{sup th} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved in comparison to the standard approach of integrating the measured spectra directly. However, because most spectra for the annihilation process e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sub μ}{sup th}, which could question the reliability of the global fit method. However, an iterated global fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied successfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE, BaBar, and BESSIII. The iterated fit solution is shown to further improve the prediction for a{sub μ}, which we find to deviate from its experimental value above the 4σ level. The contribution to a{sub μ} of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV has an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. (orig.)

  12. Global error estimation based on the tolerance proportionality for some adaptive Runge-Kutta codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, M.; González-Pinto, S.; Montijano, J. I.

    2008-09-01

    Modern codes for the numerical solution of Initial Value Problems (IVPs) in ODEs are based in adaptive methods that, for a user supplied tolerance [delta], attempt to advance the integration selecting the size of each step so that some measure of the local error is [similar, equals][delta]. Although this policy does not ensure that the global errors are under the prescribed tolerance, after the early studies of Stetter [Considerations concerning a theory for ODE-solvers, in: R. Burlisch, R.D. Grigorieff, J. Schröder (Eds.), Numerical Treatment of Differential Equations, Proceedings of Oberwolfach, 1976, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 631, Springer, Berlin, 1978, pp. 188-200; Tolerance proportionality in ODE codes, in: R. März (Ed.), Proceedings of the Second Conference on Numerical Treatment of Ordinary Differential Equations, Humbold University, Berlin, 1980, pp. 109-123] and the extensions of Higham [Global error versus tolerance for explicit Runge-Kutta methods, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 11 (1991) 457-480; The tolerance proportionality of adaptive ODE solvers, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 45 (1993) 227-236; The reliability of standard local error control algorithms for initial value ordinary differential equations, in: Proceedings: The Quality of Numerical Software: Assessment and Enhancement, IFIP Series, Springer, Berlin, 1997], it has been proved that in many existing explicit Runge-Kutta codes the global errors behave asymptotically as some rational power of [delta]. This step-size policy, for a given IVP, determines at each grid point tn a new step-size hn+1=h(tn;[delta]) so that h(t;[delta]) is a continuous function of t. In this paper a study of the tolerance proportionality property under a discontinuous step-size policy that does not allow to change the size of the step if the step-size ratio between two consecutive steps is close to unity is carried out. This theory is applied to obtain global error estimations in a few problems that have been solved with

  13. Estimating Net Primary Productivity Beneath Snowpack Using Snowpack Radiative Transfer Modeling and Global Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, D. E.; Peterson, M. C.

    2002-05-01

    Sufficient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) penetrates snow for plants to grow beneath snowpack during late winter or early spring in tundra ecosystems. During the spring in this ecosystem, the snowpack creates an environment with higher humidity and less variable and milder temperatures than on the snow-free land. Under these conditions, the amount of PAR available is likely to be the limiting factor for plant growth. Current methods for determining net primary productivity (NPP) of tundra ecosystems do not account for this plant growth beneath snowpack, apparently resulting in underestimating plant production there. We are currently in the process of estimating the magnitude of this early growth beneath snow for tundra ecosystems. Our method includes a radiative transfer model that simulates diffuse and direct PAR penetrating snowpack based on downwelling PAR values and snow depth data from global satellite databases. These PAR levels are convolved with plant growth for vegetation that thrives beneath snowpacks, such as lichen. We expect to present the net primary production for Cladonia species (a common Arctic lichen) that has the capability of photosynthesizing at low temperatures beneath snowpack. This method may also be used to study photosynthesis beneath snowpacks in other hardy plants. Lichens are used here as they are common in snow-covered regions, flourish under snowpack, and provide an important food source for tundra herbivores (e.g. caribou). In addition, lichens are common in arctic-alpine environments and our results can be applied to these ecosystems as well. Finally, the NPP of lichen beneath snowpack is relatively well understood compared to other plants, making it ideal vegetation for this first effort at estimating the potential importance of photosynthesis at large scales. We are examining other candidate plants for their photosynthetic potential beneath snowpack at this time; however, little research has been done on this topic. We

  14. Estimation of the hydrogen flux from a PEM electrolyzer, based in the solar irradiation measured in Zacatecas Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duron-Torres, S.M.; Villagrana-Munoz, L.E.; Garcia-Saldivar, V.M.; Escalante-Garcia, I.L. [Univ. Autonoma de Zacatecas, Zacatecas (Mexico). Unidad Academica de Ciencias Quimicas; Arriaga-Hurtado, L.G. [Centro de Investigacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico en Electroquimica, Pedro Escobedo (Mexico)

    2010-07-15

    The current cost of obtaining hydrogen from electrolyzers is higher than the cost of producing fossil fuels. However, with advances in technology and greater use of alternative energy sources, the cost of electrolytic hydrogen production may decrease to the point of being competitive. This study calculated how much hydrogen can be produced in a typical polymer exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer. Local solar irradiation measurements were carried out from November 2007 to April 2008 at the Campus Siglo 21 Solarimetric Station at Zacatecas University in Mexico. The mean irradiation measured was 6.6 kW-h per m{sup 2}. Based on the solar data obtained at the station, the hydrogen produced by a typical solar-hydrogen (SH) system was evaluated. The study showed that an important quantity of hydrogen as an energy vector could be obtained from solar radiation. April was determined to be the month of maximum hydrogen production. The lowest hydrogen production was in November. The data obtained during this study can be used to evaluate the solar renewable energy resource expressed as hydrogen production. 19 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs.

  15. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

  16. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

    2012-08-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

  17. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  20. Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takala, Jukka; Hämäläinen, Päivi; Saarela, Kaija Leena; Yun, Loke Yoke; Manickam, Kathiresan; Jin, Tan Wee; Heng, Peggy; Tjong, Caleb; Kheng, Lim Guan; Lim, Samuel; Lin, Gan Siok

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews the present indicators, trends, and recent solutions and strategies to tackle major global and country problems in safety and health at work. The article is based on the Yant Award Lecture of the American Industrial Hygiene Association (AIHA) at its 2013 Congress. We reviewed employment figures, mortality rates, occupational burden of disease and injuries, reported accidents, surveys on self-reported occupational illnesses and injuries, attributable fractions, national economic cost estimates of work-related injuries and ill health, and the most recent information on the problems from published papers, documents, and electronic data sources of international and regional organizations, in particular the International Labor Organization (ILO), World Health Organization (WHO), and European Union (EU), institutions, agencies, and public websites. We identified and analyzed successful solutions, programs, and strategies to reduce the work-related negative outcomes at various levels. Work-related illnesses that have a long latency period and are linked to ageing are clearly on the increase, while the number of occupational injuries has gone down in industrialized countries thanks to both better prevention and structural changes. We have estimated that globally there are 2.3 million deaths annually for reasons attributed to work. The biggest component is linked to work-related diseases, 2.0 million, and 0.3 million linked to occupational injuries. However, the division of these two factors varies depending on the level of development. In industrialized countries the share of deaths caused by occupational injuries and work-related communicable diseases is very low while non-communicable diseases are the overwhelming causes in those countries. Economic costs of work-related injury and illness vary between 1.8 and 6.0% of GDP in country estimates, the average being 4% according to the ILO. Singapore's economic costs were estimated to be equivalent to 3

  1. The global burden of snakebite: a literature analysis and modelling based on regional estimates of envenoming and deaths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuradhani Kasturiratne

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Envenoming resulting from snakebites is an important public health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries. Few attempts have been made to quantify the burden, and recent estimates all suffer from the lack of an objective and reproducible methodology. In an attempt to provide an accurate, up-to-date estimate of the scale of the global problem, we developed a new method to estimate the disease burden due to snakebites. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The global estimates were based on regional estimates that were, in turn, derived from data available for countries within a defined region. Three main strategies were used to obtain primary data: electronic searching for publications on snakebite, extraction of relevant country-specific mortality data from databases maintained by United Nations organizations, and identification of grey literature by discussion with key informants. Countries were grouped into 21 distinct geographic regions that are as epidemiologically homogenous as possible, in line with the Global Burden of Disease 2005 study (Global Burden Project of the World Bank. Incidence rates for envenoming were extracted from publications and used to estimate the number of envenomings for individual countries; if no data were available for a particular country, the lowest incidence rate within a neighbouring country was used. Where death registration data were reliable, reported deaths from snakebite were used; in other countries, deaths were estimated on the basis of observed mortality rates and the at-risk population. We estimate that, globally, at least 421,000 envenomings and 20,000 deaths occur each year due to snakebite. These figures may be as high as 1,841,000 envenomings and 94,000 deaths. Based on the fact that envenoming occurs in about one in every four snakebites, between 1.2 million and 5.5 million snakebites could occur annually. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebites cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The

  2. A long baseline global stereo matching based upon short baseline estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Li, Zigang; Gu, Feifei; Zhao, Zixin; Ma, Yueyang; Fang, Meiqi

    2018-05-01

    In global stereo vision, balancing the matching efficiency and computing accuracy seems to be impossible because they contradict each other. In the case of a long baseline, this contradiction becomes more prominent. In order to solve this difficult problem, this paper proposes a novel idea to improve both the efficiency and accuracy in global stereo matching for a long baseline. In this way, the reference images located between the long baseline image pairs are firstly chosen to form the new image pairs with short baselines. The relationship between the disparities of pixels in the image pairs with different baselines is revealed by considering the quantized error so that the disparity search range under the long baseline can be reduced by guidance of the short baseline to gain matching efficiency. Then, the novel idea is integrated into the graph cuts (GCs) to form a multi-step GC algorithm based on the short baseline estimation, by which the disparity map under the long baseline can be calculated iteratively on the basis of the previous matching. Furthermore, the image information from the pixels that are non-occluded under the short baseline but are occluded for the long baseline can be employed to improve the matching accuracy. Although the time complexity of the proposed method depends on the locations of the chosen reference images, it is usually much lower for a long baseline stereo matching than when using the traditional GC algorithm. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is examined by experiments based on benchmark datasets. The results show that the proposed method is superior to the traditional GC method in terms of efficiency and accuracy, and thus it is suitable for long baseline stereo matching.

  3. Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed A Oyinlola

    Full Text Available Aquaculture has grown rapidly over the last three decades expanding at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% (2005-2014, down from 8.8% achieved between 1980 and 2010. The sector now produces 44% of total food fish production. Increasing demand and consumption from a growing global population are driving further expansion of both inland and marine aquaculture (i.e., mariculture, including marine species farmed on land. However, the growth of mariculture is dependent on the availability of suitable farming areas for new facilities, particularly for open farming practices that rely on the natural oceanic environmental parameters such as temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll etc. In this study, we estimated the marine areas within the exclusive economic zones of all countries that were suitable for potential open ocean mariculture activities. To this end, we quantify the environmental niche and inferred the global habitat suitability index (HSI of the 102 most farmed marine species using four species distribution models. The average weighted HSI across the four models suggests that 72,000,000 km2 of ocean are to be environmentally suitable to farm one or more species. About 92% of the predicted area (66,000,000 km2 is environmentally suitable for farming finfish, 43% (31,000,000 km2 for molluscs and 54% (39,000,000 km2 for crustaceans. These predictions do not consider technological feasibility that can limit crustaceans farming in open waters. Suitable mariculture areas along the Atlantic coast of South America and West Africa appear to be most under-utilized for farming. Our results suggest that factors other than environmental considerations such as the lack of socio-economic and technological capacity, as well as aqua feed supply are currently limiting the potential for mariculture expansion in many areas.

  4. Estimating global mortality from potentially foodborne diseases: an analysis using vital registration data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanson Laura A

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foodborne diseases (FBD comprise a large part of the global mortality burden, yet the true extent of their impact remains unknown. The present study utilizes multiple regression with the first attempt to use nonhealth variables to predict potentially FBD mortality at the country level. Methods Vital registration (VR data were used to build a multiple regression model incorporating nonhealth variables in addition to traditionally used health indicators. This model was subsequently used to predict FBD mortality rates for all countries of the World Health Organization classifications AmrA, AmrB, EurA, and EurB. Results Statistical modeling strongly supported the inclusion of nonhealth variables in a multiple regression model as predictors of potentially FBD mortality. Six variables were included in the final model: percent irrigated land, average calorie supply from animal products, meat production in metric tons, adult literacy rate, adult HIV/AIDS prevalence, and percent of deaths under age 5 caused by diarrheal disease. Interestingly, nonhealth variables were not only more robust predictors of mortality than health variables but also remained significant when adding additional health variables into the analysis. Mortality rate predictions from our model ranged from 0.26 deaths per 100,000 (Netherlands to 15.65 deaths per 100,000 (Honduras. Reported mortality rates of potentially FBD from VR data lie within the 95% prediction interval for the majority of countries (37/39 where comparison was possible. Conclusions Nonhealth variables appear to be strong predictors of potentially FBD mortality at the country level and may be a powerful tool in the effort to estimate the global mortality burden of FBD. Disclaimer The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the World Health Organization.

  5. Determination of atmospheric parameters to estimate global radiation in areas of complex topography: Generation of global irradiation map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batlles, F.J.; Bosch, J.L. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Tovar-Pescador, J. [Dpto. Fisica, Universidad de Jaen, 23071 Jaen (Spain); Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. Ingenieria Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Ortega, R. [Dpto. Edafologia y Quimica Agricola, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Miralles, I. [Dpto. Edafologia y Quimica Agricola, Universidad de Granada, 28071 Granada (Spain)

    2008-02-15

    Incoming shortwave solar radiation is an important parameter in environmental applications. A detailed spatial and temporal analysis of global solar radiation on the earth surface is needed in many applications, ranging from solar energy uses to the study of agricultural, forest and biological processes. At local scales, the topography is the most important factor in the distribution of solar radiation on the surface. The variability of the elevation, the surface orientation and the obstructions due to elevations are a source of great local differences in insolation and, consequently, in other variables as ground temperature. For this reason, several models based on GIS techniques have been recently developed, integrating topography to obtain the solar radiation on the surface. In this work, global radiation is analyzed with the Solar Analyst, a model implemented on ArcView, that computes the topographic parameters: altitude, latitude, slope and orientation (azimuth) and shadow effects. Solar Analyst uses as input parameters the diffuse fraction and the transmittance. These parameters are not usually available in radiometric networks in mountainous areas. In this work, a method to obtain both parameters from global radiation is proposed. Global radiation data obtained in two networks of radiometric stations is used: one located in Sierra Magina Natural Park (Spain) with 11 stations and another one located on the surroundings of Sierra Nevada Natural Park (Spain) with 14 stations. Daily solar irradiation is calculated from a digital terrain model (DTM), the daily diffuse fraction, K, and daily atmospheric transmittivity, {tau}. Results provided by the model have been compared with measured values. An overestimation for high elevations is observed, whereas low altitudes present underestimation. The best performance was also reported during summer months, and the worst results were obtained during winter. Finally, a yearly global solar irradiation map has been

  6. Estimate of the global burden of cervical adenocarcinoma and potential impact of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenta, Jeanne M; Galindo, Claudia; Jenkins, David; Taylor, Sylvia M

    2013-01-01

    Data on the current burden of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and histology-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) type distribution are relevant to predict the future impact of prophylactic HPV vaccines. We estimate the proportion of ADC in invasive cervical cancer, the global number of cases of cervical ADC in 2015, the effect of cervical screening on ADC, the number of ADC cases attributable to high-risk HPV types -16, -18, -45, -31 and -33, and the potential impact of HPV vaccination using a variety of data sources including: GLOBOCAN 2008, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume IX, cervical screening data from the World Health Organization/Institut Català d'Oncologia Information Centre on HPV and cervical cancer, and published literature. ADC represents 9.4% of all ICC although its contribution varies greatly by country and region. The global crude incidence rate of cervical ADC in 2015 is estimated at 1.6 cases per 100,000 women, and the projected worldwide incidence of ADC in 2015 is 56,805 new cases. Current detection rates for HPV DNA in cervical ADC tend to range around 80–85%; the lower HPV detection rates in cervical ADC versus squamous cell carcinoma may be due to technical artefacts or to misdiagnosis of endometrial carcinoma as cervical ADC. Published data indicate that the five most common HPV types found in cervical ADC are HPV-16 (41.6%), -18 (38.7%), -45 (7.0%), -31 (2.2%) and -33 (2.1%), together comprising 92% of all HPV positive cases. Future projections using 2015 data, assuming 100% vaccine coverage and a true HPV causal relation of 100%, suggest that vaccines providing protection against HPV-16/18 may theoretically prevent 79% of new HPV-related ADC cases (44,702 cases annually) and vaccines additionally providing cross-protection against HPV-31/33/45 may prevent 89% of new HPV-related ADC cases (50,769 cases annually). It is predicted that the currently available HPV vaccines will be highly effective in preventing HPV-related cervical

  7. Muon g-2 Estimates. Can One Trust Effective Lagrangians and Global Fits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L. [Paris VI et Paris VII Univ. (France). LPNHE; David, P. [Paris VI et Paris VII Univ. (France). LPNHE; Paris-Diderot Univ./CNRS UMR 8236 (France). LIED; Jegerlehner, F. [Humboldt-Universitaet, Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) Model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an Effective Lagrangian (BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework; a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into the 6 final states - π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S} - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sup th}{sub μ} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved compared to its partner derived from integrating the measured spectra directly. However, most spectra for the process e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, and one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sup th}{sub μ}. However, an iterated fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied succesfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE (including the latest sample) and BaBar. The iterated fit solution is shown to be further improved and leads to a value for a{sub μ} different from aexp above the 4σ level. The contribution of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV to a{sub μ} derived from the iterated fit benefits from an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. The main issue raised in this study and the kind of solution proposed may be of concern for other data driven methods when the data samples are dominated by global normalization uncertainties.

  8. Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

  9. Evaluation of Various Methods for Estimating Global Solar Radiation in the Southeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woli, Prem; Paz, Joel O.

    2012-05-01

    Global solar radiation Rg is an important input for crop models to simulate crop responses. Because the scarcity of long and continuous records of Rg is a serious limitation in many countries, Rg is estimated using models. For crop-model application, empirical Rg models that use commonly measured meteorological variables, such as temperature and precipitation, are generally preferred. Although a large number of models of this kind exist, few have been evaluated for conditions in the United States. This study evaluated the performances of 16 empirical, temperature- and/or precipitation-based Rg models for the southeastern United States. By taking into account spatial distribution and data availability, 30 locations in the region were selected and their daily weather data spanning eight years obtained. One-half of the data was used for calibrating the models, and the other half was used for evaluation. For each model, location-specific parameter values were estimated through regressions. Models were evaluated for each location using the root-mean-square error and the modeling efficiency as goodness-of-fit measures. Among the models that use temperature or precipitation as the input variable, the Mavromatis model showed the best performance. The piecewise linear regression based Wu et al. model (WP) performed best not only among the models that use both temperature and precipitation but also among the 16 models evaluated, mainly because it has separate relationships for low and high radiation levels. The modeling efficiency of WP was from ~5% to more than 100% greater than those of the other models, depending on models and locations.

  10. 'TEWI' concept for estimation of the global warming from the refrigerating and air conditioning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2002-01-01

    The most applied CFC refrigerants and their HFC alternatives. values of ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) of the most used refrigerants. natural working fluids and their properties. Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol, illogical relations between them concerning to the HFC fluids. Confusion and polemics on the international level about the appliance of HFCs which, by the Kyoto Protocol, are liable to reduction. Introduction of the TEWI concept as a method for estimating the overall influence of refrigerating and air conditioning systems on the greenhouse effect: the direct emission (refrigerant leakage in the atmosphere) and indirect emission as a result of the electrical energy consumption. A demonstration of the TEWI concept on the concrete example in several variants. A discussion about the appliance of the TEWI concept. Meaning of the energy efficiency of the refrigerating systems (indirect CO 2 emission). One of the main measures: prevention of refrigerant leakage (direct CO 2 emission). A need of permanent education and training courses of the people who work on refrigerating and air conditioning systems. A necessity for constitution of an expert body in the country, preparation of a strategy to lay obligations on the new changes of the Kyoto Protocol and news on the world market. Introduction of country regulations, certification of the companies and people involved in refrigeration and air conditioning. (Author)

  11. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

  12. Walk on the wild side: estimating the global magnitude of visits to protected areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Balmford

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available How often do people visit the world's protected areas (PAs? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don't know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world's terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109 visits/y-of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation.

  13. Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first

  14. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  15. Hydrogen control in the System 80+TM ALWR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, R.E.; Jacob, M.C.; Carpentino, F.L.; Wachowiak, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides an assessment of the features built into the System 80 +TM Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) design for controlling hydrogen concentration during a hypothetical severe accident. Although the significantly larger System 80 + containment volume serves to passively maintain the global average below detonable limits, the design incorporates a Hydrogen Mitigation System (HMS) to further reduce the local hydrogen concentration. The HMS consists of a large number of hydrogen ignitors distributed within the containment to selectively burn-off hydrogen at low concentrations. The criteria for the placement of these igniters are discussed along with an assessment of the effectiveness of the igniters to control the hydrogen concentrations. This assessment, which was performed using the generalized containment model of the MAAP 4 code, evaluated the potential for hydrogen build-up in the containment and calculated the best-estimate response of the igniters. (author)

  16. Global model analysis of negative ion generation in low-pressure inductively coupled hydrogen plasmas with bi-Maxwellian electron energy distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Sung-Ryul; Kim, Nam-Kyun; Jung, Bong-Ki; Chung, Kyoung-Jae; Hwang, Yong-Seok; Kim, Gon-Ho

    2015-01-01

    A global model was developed to investigate the densities of negative ions and the other species in a low-pressure inductively coupled hydrogen plasma with a bi-Maxwellian electron energy distribution. Compared to a Maxwellian plasma, bi-Maxwellian plasmas have higher populations of low-energy electrons and highly vibrationally excited hydrogen molecules that are generated efficiently by high-energy electrons. This leads to a higher reaction rate of the dissociative electron attachment responsible for negative ion production. The model indicated that the bi-Maxwellian electron energy distribution at low pressures is favorable for the creation of negative ions. In addition, the electron temperature, electron density, and negative ion density calculated using the model were compared with the experimental data. In the low-pressure regime, the model results of the bi-Maxwellian electron energy distributions agreed well quantitatively with the experimental measurements, unlike those of the assumed Maxwellian electron energy distributions that had discrepancies

  17. Estimation of global soil respiration by accounting for land-use changes derived from remote sensing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Minaco; Ito, Akihiko; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Takeuchi, Wataru

    2017-09-15

    Soil respiration is one of the largest carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. Estimating global soil respiration is difficult because of its high spatiotemporal variability and sensitivity to land-use change. Satellite monitoring provides useful data for estimating the global carbon budget, but few studies have estimated global soil respiration using satellite data. We provide preliminary insights into the estimation of global soil respiration in 2001 and 2009 using empirically derived soil temperature equations for 17 ecosystems obtained by field studies, as well as MODIS climate data and land-use maps at a 4-km resolution. The daytime surface temperature from winter to early summer based on the MODIS data tended to be higher than the field-observed soil temperatures in subarctic and temperate ecosystems. The estimated global soil respiration was 94.8 and 93.8 Pg C yr -1 in 2001 and 2009, respectively. However, the MODIS land-use maps had insufficient spatial resolution to evaluate the effect of land-use change on soil respiration. The spatial variation of soil respiration (Q 10 ) values was higher but its spatial variation was lower in high-latitude areas than in other areas. However, Q 10 in tropical areas was more variable and was not accurately estimated (the values were >7.5 or soil respiration in tropical ecosystems. To solve these problems, it will be necessary to validate our results using a combination of remote sensing data at higher spatial resolution and field observations for many different ecosystems, and it will be necessary to account for the effects of more soil factors in the predictive equations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Inter-comparison of different models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation for the Negev region of Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ianetz, Amiran; Lyubansky, Vera; Setter, Ilan; Kriheli, Boris; Evseev, Efim G.; Kudish, Avraham I.

    2007-01-01

    Solar global radiation is a function of solar altitude, site altitude, albedo, atmospheric transparency and cloudiness, whereas solar global radiation on a clear day is defined such that it is a function of all the abovementioned parameters except cloudiness. Consequently, analysis of the relative magnitudes of solar global radiation and solar global radiation on a clear day provides a platform for studying the influence of cloudiness on solar global radiation. The Iqbal filter for determining the day type has been utilized to calculate the monthly average clear day solar global radiation at three sites in the Negev region of Israel. An inter-comparison between four models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation at the three sites was made. The relative accuracy of the four models was determined by comparing the monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation to that determined using the Iqbal filter. The analysis was performed on databases consisting of measurements made during the time interval of January 1991 to December 2004. The monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation determined by the Berlynd model was found to give the best agreement with that determined using the Iqbal filter. The Berlynd model was then utilized to calculate a daily clear day index, K c , which is defined as the ratio of the daily solar global radiation to the daily clear day solar global radiation. It is suggested that this index be used as an indication of the degree of cloudiness. Linear regression analysis was performed on the individual monthly databases for each site to determine the correlation between the daily clear day index and the daily clearness index, K T

  19. Global thunderstorm activity estimation based on number of transients in ELF-band

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ondraskova, Adriena; Sevcik, Sebastian

    2017-04-01

    Schumann resonances (SR) are resonant electromagnetic oscillations in extremely low frequency band (ELF, 3 Hz - 3 kHz), which arise in the Earth-ionosphere cavity due to lightning activity in planetary range. The time records in the ELF-band consist of background signals and ELF transients/Q-bursts superimposed on the background exceeding it by a factor of 5 - 10. The former are produced by the common worldwide thunderstorm activity (100 - 150 events per second), the latter origin from individual intense distant lightning discharges (100 - 120 powerful strokes per hour). A Q-burst is produced by a combination of direct and antipodal pulses and the decisive factor for its shape follows from the source-to-observer distance. Diurnal/seasonal variations of global thunderstorm activity can be deduced from spectral amplitudes of SR modes. Here we focus on diurnal/seasonal variations of the number of ELF-transients assuming that it is another way of lightning activity estimation. To search for transients, our own code was applied to the SR vertical electric component measured in October 2004 - October 2008 at the Astronomical and Geophysical Observatory of FMPI CU, Slovakia. Criteria for the identification of the burst are chosen on the basis of the transient amplitudes and their morphological features. Monthly mean daily variations in number of transients showed that African focus dominates at 14 - 16 h UT and it is more active in comparison with Asian source, which dominates at 5 - 8 h UT in dependence on winter or summer month. American source had surprisingly slight response. Meteorological observations in South America aiming to determine lightning hotspots on the Earth indicate that flash rate in this region is greatest during nocturnal 0 h - 3 h local standard time. This fact may be interpreted that Asian and South American sources contribute together in the same UT. Cumulative spectral amplitude of the first three SR modes compared with number of ELF-transients in

  20. Lagged life cycle structures for food products: Their role in global marketing, their determinants and some problems in their estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Allan; Gede, Mads Peter; Grunert, Klaus G.

    cycles for different product categories may be lagged (type II lag) because changes in economic and other factors will result in demands for different products. Identifying lagged life cycle structures major importance in global marketing of food products. The problems in arriving at such estimates...

  1. Municipal solid waste conversion to transportation fuels: a life-cycle estimation of global warming potential and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pressley, Phillip N.; Aziz, Tarek N.; DeCarolis, Joseph F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper utilizes life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate the conversion of U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) to liquid transportation fuels via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). The model estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) associated...

  2. Estimate of the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model: a sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrieri, A.

    2009-01-01

    In this report the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model of intermediate complexity has been estimated numerically. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out by varying the equator-to-pole temperature difference, the space resolution and the value of some parameters employed by the model. Chaotic and non-chaotic regimes of circulation have been found. [it

  3. How Choice of Depth Horizon Influences the Estimated Spatial Patterns and Global Magnitude of Ocean Carbon Export Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palevsky, Hilary I.; Doney, Scott C.

    2018-05-01

    Estimated rates and efficiency of ocean carbon export flux are sensitive to differences in the depth horizons used to define export, which often vary across methodological approaches. We evaluate sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) flux rates and efficiency (e-ratios) in a global earth system model, using a range of commonly used depth horizons: the seasonal mixed layer depth, the particle compensation depth, the base of the euphotic zone, a fixed depth horizon of 100 m, and the maximum annual mixed layer depth. Within this single dynamically consistent model framework, global POC flux rates vary by 30% and global e-ratios by 21% across different depth horizon choices. Zonal variability in POC flux and e-ratio also depends on the export depth horizon due to pronounced influence of deep winter mixing in subpolar regions. Efforts to reconcile conflicting estimates of export need to account for these systematic discrepancies created by differing depth horizon choices.

  4. [Regional and global estimates of carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity in forest ecosystems: A review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei-wei; Wang, Xiao-ke; Lu, Fei; Ouyang, Zhi-yun

    2015-09-01

    As a dominant part of terrestrial ecosystems, forest ecosystem plays an important role in absorbing atmospheric CO2 and global climate change mitigation. From the aspects of zonal climate and geographical distribution, the present carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem were comprehensively examined based on the review of the latest literatures. The influences of land use change on forest carbon sequestration were analyzed, and factors that leading to the uncertainty of carbon sequestration assessment in forest ecosystem were also discussed. It was estimated that the current forest carbon stock was in the range of 652 to 927 Pg C and the carbon sequestration capacity was approximately 4.02 Pg C · a(-1). In terms of zonal climate, the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of tropical forest were the maximum, about 471 Pg C and 1.02-1.3 Pg C · a(-1) respectively; then the carbon stock of boreal forest was about 272 Pg C, while its carbon sequestration capacity was the minimum, approximately 0.5 Pg C · a(-1); for temperate forest, the carbon stock was minimal, around 113 to 159 Pg C and its carbon sequestration capacity was 0.8 Pg C · a(-1). From the aspect of geographical distribution, the carbon stock of forest ecosystem in South America was the largest (187.7-290 Pg C), then followed by European (162.6 Pg C), North America (106.7 Pg C), Africa (98.2 Pg C) and Asia (74.5 Pg C), and Oceania (21.7 Pg C). In addition, carbon sequestration capacity of regional forest ecosystem was summed up as listed below: Tropical South America forest was the maximum (1276 Tg C · a(-1)), then were Tropical Africa (753 Tg C · a(-1)), North America (248 Tg C · a(-1)) and European (239 Tg C · a(-1)), and East Asia (98.8-136.5 Tg C · a(-1)) was minimum. To further reduce the uncertainty in the estimations of the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem, comprehensive application of long-term observation, inventories

  5. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    2017-05-13

    Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM 2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM 2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM 2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will

  6. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

  7. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Durban, M.; Zarzalejo, L.F.; Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Polo, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE).

  8. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  9. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  10. Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of

  11. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  12. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  13. Global gas balance and influence of atomic hydrogen irradiation on the wall inventory in steady-state operation of QUEST tokamak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzmin, A., E-mail: kuzmin@triam.kyushu-u.ac.jp [RIAM, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); Zushi, H. [RIAM, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); Takagi, I. [Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University (Japan); Sharma, S.K. [Institute for Plasma Research, Ahmadabad, Gujrat (India); Rusinov, A. [RIAM, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); Inoue, Y. [IGSES, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); Hirooka, Y. [National Institute for Fusion Science, 322-6 Oroshi, Toki, Gifu 509-5292 (Japan); Zhou, H. [Graduate School for Advanced Studies, 322-6 Oroshi, Toki, Gifu 509-5292 (Japan); Kobayashi, M. [National Institute for Fusion Science, 322-6 Oroshi, Toki, Gifu 509-5292 (Japan); Sakamoto, M. [Plasma Research Center, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577 (Japan); Hanada, K.; Yoshida, N.; Nakamura, K.; Fujisawa, A.; Matsuoka, K.; Idei, H.; Nagashima, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Onchi, T. [RIAM, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); Banerjee, S. [IGSES, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasugakoen, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580 (Japan); and others

    2015-08-15

    Hydrogen wall pumping is studied in steady state tokamak operation (SSTO) of QUEST with all metal plasma facing materials PFMs at 100 °C. The duration of SSTO is up to 820 s in fully non-inductive plasma. Global gas balance analysis shows that wall pumping at the apparent (retention–release) rate of 1–6 × 10{sup 18} H/s is dominant and 70–80% of injected H{sub 2} can be retained in PFMs. However, immediately after plasma termination the H{sub 2} release rate enhances to ∼10{sup 19} H/s. In order to understand a true retention process the direct measurement of retention flux has been carried out by permeation probes. The comparison between the evaluated wall retention and results from global analysis is discussed.

  14. Global gas balance and influence of atomic hydrogen irradiation on the wall inventory in steady-state operation of QUEST tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmin, A.; Zushi, H.; Takagi, I.; Sharma, S. K.; Rusinov, A.; Inoue, Y.; Hirooka, Y.; Zhou, H.; Kobayashi, M.; Sakamoto, M.; Hanada, K.; Yoshida, N.; Nakamura, K.; Fujisawa, A.; Matsuoka, K.; Idei, H.; Nagashima, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Onchi, T.; Banerjee, S.; Mishra, K.

    2015-08-01

    Hydrogen wall pumping is studied in steady state tokamak operation (SSTO) of QUEST with all metal plasma facing materials PFMs at 100 °C. The duration of SSTO is up to 820 s in fully non-inductive plasma. Global gas balance analysis shows that wall pumping at the apparent (retention-release) rate of 1-6 × 1018 H/s is dominant and 70-80% of injected H2 can be retained in PFMs. However, immediately after plasma termination the H2 release rate enhances to ∼1019 H/s. In order to understand a true retention process the direct measurement of retention flux has been carried out by permeation probes. The comparison between the evaluated wall retention and results from global analysis is discussed.

  15. Global gas balance and influence of atomic hydrogen irradiation on the wall inventory in steady-state operation of QUEST tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzmin, A.; Zushi, H.; Takagi, I.; Sharma, S.K.; Rusinov, A.; Inoue, Y.; Hirooka, Y.; Zhou, H.; Kobayashi, M.; Sakamoto, M.; Hanada, K.; Yoshida, N.; Nakamura, K.; Fujisawa, A.; Matsuoka, K.; Idei, H.; Nagashima, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Onchi, T.; Banerjee, S.

    2015-01-01

    Hydrogen wall pumping is studied in steady state tokamak operation (SSTO) of QUEST with all metal plasma facing materials PFMs at 100 °C. The duration of SSTO is up to 820 s in fully non-inductive plasma. Global gas balance analysis shows that wall pumping at the apparent (retention–release) rate of 1–6 × 10 18 H/s is dominant and 70–80% of injected H 2 can be retained in PFMs. However, immediately after plasma termination the H 2 release rate enhances to ∼10 19 H/s. In order to understand a true retention process the direct measurement of retention flux has been carried out by permeation probes. The comparison between the evaluated wall retention and results from global analysis is discussed

  16. Estimation of the thermodynamic parameters of hydrogen bonding in alcohol solutions by the method of infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedernikova, E. V.; Gafurov, M. M.; Ataev, M. B.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen bonding (H-bonding) is a specific type of intermolecular interaction being formed for favorable mutual orientations of the interacting molecules. One of the authors had developed a model concept relating the H-bonding energy with the change of stretching vibrations Δν = νOH - νOH-NC of the alcohol OH-group in acetonitrile and acetone solutions: Δ H = 89.24Δν/ν0. The calculated H-bond energy was 10.45 kJ/mole for acetonitrile and Δ H = 12.12 kJ/mole for acetone. The results obtained are compared with the data calculated using the equilibrium constant of H-bonding reaction; they can also be used to calculate all other thermodynamic H-bond parameters by measuring the equilibrium constant K c in a certain temperature interval. The equilibrium constant is calculated from the Lambert-Bouguer-Beer law: {K_c} = {{C_{{text{OH}} \\cdots {text{NC}}}}}/{{C_{text{OH}} \\cdot {C_{text{NC}}}}} , ∆ F = - RT ṡ ln K c , ∆ H = RT 2 ṡ d(ln K c )/ dT, and Δ S = {Δ H - Δ F}/T . For the methanol solution in acetonitrile, Δν = 115 cm-1, Δ H = 10.87 kJ/mole, and K c = 42 L/mole. For the ethanol solution in acetonitrile, Δν = 118 cm-1, Δ H = 10.01 kJ/mole, and K c = 34 L/mole. For the propanol solution in acetonitrile, Δν = 110 cm-1, Δ H = 8.36 kJ/mole, and K c = 13 L/mole. All calculations are performed using the developed programs. The spectra are recorded on Perkin-Elmer-180 and Specord-84 IR-spectrometers. The values of the thermodynamic parameters calculated and estimated from K c - f( T) are in good agreement with each other and with the available literature data.

  17. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  18. Limitations of a Short Demographic Questionnaire for Bedside Estimation of Patients’ Global Cognitive Functioning in Epilepsy Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Gorny

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ObjectivesThe German socio-demographic estimation scale was developed by Jahn et al. (1 to quickly predict premorbid global cognitive functioning in patients. So far, it has been validated in healthy adults and has shown a good correlation with the full and verbal IQ of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS in this group. However, there are no data regarding its use as a bedside test in epilepsy patients.MethodsForty native German speaking adult patients with refractory epilepsy were included. They completed a neuropsychological assessment, including a nine scale short form of the German version of the WAIS-III and the German socio-demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 during their presurgical diagnostic stay in our center. We calculated means, correlations, and the rate of concordance (range ±5 and ±7.5 IQ score points between these two measures for the whole group, and a subsample of 19 patients with a global cognitive functioning level within 1 SD of the mean (IQ score range 85–115 and who had completed their formal education before epilepsy onset.ResultsThe German demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 showed a significant mean overestimation of the global cognitive functioning level of eight points in the epilepsy patient sample compared with the short form WAIS-III score. The accuracy within a range of ±5 or ±7.5 IQ score points for each patient was similar to that of the healthy controls reported by Jahn et al. (1 in our subsample, but not in our whole sample.ConclusionOur results show that the socio-demographic scale by Jahn et al. (1 is not sufficiently reliable as an estimation tool of global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients. It can be used to estimate global cognitive functioning in a subset of patients with a normal global cognitive functioning level who have completed their formal education before epilepsy onset, but it does not reliably predict global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients

  19. Estimation of daily global solar irradiation by coupling ground measurements of bright sunshine hours to satellite imagery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ener Rusen, Selmin; Hammer, Annette; Akinoglu, Bulent G.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, the current version of the satellite-based HELIOSAT method and ground-based linear Ångström–Prescott type relations are used in combination. The first approach is based on the use of a correlation between daily bright sunshine hours (s) and cloud index (n). In the second approach a new correlation is proposed between daily solar irradiation and daily data of s and n which is based on a physical parameterization. The performances of the proposed two combined models are tested against conventional methods. We test the use of obtained correlation coefficients for nearby locations. Our results show that the use of sunshine duration together with the cloud index is quite satisfactory in the estimation of daily horizontal global solar irradiation. We propose to use the new approaches to estimate daily global irradiation when the bright sunshine hours data is available for the location of interest, provided that some regression coefficients are determined using the data of a nearby station. In addition, if surface data for a close location does not exist then it is recommended to use satellite models like HELIOSAT or the new approaches instead the Ångström type models. - Highlights: • Satellite imagery together with surface measurements in solar radiation estimation. • The new coupled and conventional models (satellite and ground-based) are analyzed. • New models result in highly accurate estimation of daily global solar irradiation

  20. Deterministic global optimization algorithm based on outer approximation for the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miró, Anton; Pozo, Carlos; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Egea, Jose A; Jiménez, Laureano

    2012-05-10

    The estimation of parameter values for mathematical models of biological systems is an optimization problem that is particularly challenging due to the nonlinearities involved. One major difficulty is the existence of multiple minima in which standard optimization methods may fall during the search. Deterministic global optimization methods overcome this limitation, ensuring convergence to the global optimum within a desired tolerance. Global optimization techniques are usually classified into stochastic and deterministic. The former typically lead to lower CPU times but offer no guarantee of convergence to the global minimum in a finite number of iterations. In contrast, deterministic methods provide solutions of a given quality (i.e., optimality gap), but tend to lead to large computational burdens. This work presents a deterministic outer approximation-based algorithm for the global optimization of dynamic problems arising in the parameter estimation of models of biological systems. Our approach, which offers a theoretical guarantee of convergence to global minimum, is based on reformulating the set of ordinary differential equations into an equivalent set of algebraic equations through the use of orthogonal collocation methods, giving rise to a nonconvex nonlinear programming (NLP) problem. This nonconvex NLP is decomposed into two hierarchical levels: a master mixed-integer linear programming problem (MILP) that provides a rigorous lower bound on the optimal solution, and a reduced-space slave NLP that yields an upper bound. The algorithm iterates between these two levels until a termination criterion is satisfied. The capabilities of our approach were tested in two benchmark problems, in which the performance of our algorithm was compared with that of the commercial global optimization package BARON. The proposed strategy produced near optimal solutions (i.e., within a desired tolerance) in a fraction of the CPU time required by BARON.

  1. Kinetics of the decomposition and the estimation of the stability of 10% aqueous and non-aqueous hydrogen peroxide solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zun Maria

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the stability of 10% hydrogen peroxide aqueous and non-aqueous solutions with the addition of 6% (w/w of urea was evaluated. The solutions were stored at 20°C, 30°C and 40°C, and the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide proceeded according to first-order kinetics. With the addition of the urea in the solutions, the decomposition rate constant increased and the activation energy decreased. The temperature of storage also affected the decomposition of substance, however, 10% hydrogen peroxide solutions prepared in PEG-300, and stabilized with the addition of 6% (w/w of urea had the best constancy.

  2. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2017-01-01

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  3. Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods in the study of global drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Zheng, Ziyan; Duan, Yawen

    2017-12-01

    Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced perturbations. The most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio, called the Surface Wetness Index (SWI), of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET) being below 0.65. PET is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite (PET Th) and Penman-Monteith equations (PET PM). The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET PM. Results showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM; however, the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands, except in North America, with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to 0.89. It was found that, during 1901-2014, global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded, arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted, and drylands underwent interdecadal fluctuation. This was because precipitation variations made major contributions, whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser degree. However, distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were found. This indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry-wet transition zone. Additionally, the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming, and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

  4. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  5. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  6. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The set of commercially available chemical substances in commerce that may have significant global warming potential (GWP) is not well defined. Although there are...

  7. Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xiao

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Methyl chloride (CH3Cl is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH3Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH3Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr−1 with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr−1 from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH3Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

  8. Estimation of strength in different extra Watson-Crick hydrogen bonds in DNA double helices through quantum chemical studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, D; Bhattacharyya, D

    2006-10-15

    It was shown earlier, from database analysis, model building studies, and molecular dynamics simulations that formation of cross-strand bifurcated or Extra Watson-Crick hydrogen (EWC) bonds between successive base pairs may lead to extra rigidity to DNA double helices of certain sequences. The strengths of these hydrogen bonds are debatable, however, as they do not have standard linear geometry criterion. We have therefore carried out detailed ab initio quantum chemical studies using RHF/6-31G(2d,2p) and B3LYP/6-31G(2p,2d) basis sets to determine strengths of several bent hydrogen bonds with different donor and acceptors. Interaction energy calculations, corrected for the basis set superposition errors, suggest that N-H...O type bent EWC hydrogen bonds are possible along same strands or across the strands between successive base pairs, leading to significant stability (ca. 4-9 kcal/mol). The N-H...N and C-H...O type interactions, however, are not so stabilizing. Hence, consideration of EWC N-H...O H-bonds can lead to a better understanding of DNA sequence directed structural features. Copyright (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng Zhenzhong; Piao Shilong; Yin Guodong; Peng Shushi; Lin Xin; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B

    2012-01-01

    We applied a land water mass balance equation over 59 major river basins during 2003–9 to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), using as input terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from the GRACE satellites, precipitation and in situ runoff measurements. We found that the terrestrial water storage change cannot be neglected in the estimation of ET on an annual time step, especially in areas with relatively low ET values. We developed a spatial regression model of ET by integrating precipitation, temperature and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and used this model to extrapolate the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in ET from 1982 to 2009. We found that the globally averaged land ET is about 604 mm yr −1 with a range of 558–650 mm yr −1 . From 1982 to 2009, global land ET was found to increase at a rate of 1.10 mm yr −2 , with the Amazon regions and Southeast Asia showing the highest ET increasing trend. Further analyses, however, show that the increase in global land ET mainly occurred between the 1980s and the 1990s. The trend over the 2000s, its magnitude or even the sign of change substantially depended on the choice of the beginning year. This suggests a non-significant trend in global land ET over the last decade. (letter)

  10. Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever: Systematic review to estimate global morbidity and mortality for 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey C. Buckle

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Typhoid and paratyphoid fever remain important causes of morbidity worldwide. Accurate disease burden estimates are needed to guide policy decisions and prevention and control strategies.

  11. Effects of foliage clumping on the estimation of global terrestrial gross primary productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing M.; Mo, Gang; Pisek, Jan; Liu, Jane; Deng, Feng; Ishizawa, Misa; Chan, Douglas

    2012-03-01

    Sunlit and shaded leaf separation proposed by Norman (1982) is an effective way to upscale from leaf to canopy in modeling vegetation photosynthesis. The Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) makes use of this methodology, and has been shown to be reliable in modeling the gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from CO2flux and tree ring measurements. In this study, we use BEPS to investigate the effect of canopy architecture on the global distribution of GPP. For this purpose, we use not only leaf area index (LAI) but also the first ever global map of the foliage clumping index derived from the multiangle satellite sensor POLDER at 6 km resolution. The clumping index, which characterizes the degree of the deviation of 3-dimensional leaf spatial distributions from the random case, is used to separate sunlit and shaded LAI values for a given LAI. Our model results show that global GPP in 2003 was 132 ± 22 Pg C. Relative to this baseline case, our results also show: (1) global GPP is overestimated by 12% when accurate LAI is available but clumping is ignored, and (2) global GPP is underestimated by 9% when the effective LAI is available and clumping is ignored. The clumping effects in both cases are statistically significant (p < 0.001). The effective LAI is often derived from remote sensing by inverting the measured canopy gap fraction to LAI without considering the clumping. Global GPP would therefore be generally underestimated when remotely sensed LAI (actually effective LAI by our definition) is used. This is due to the underestimation of the shaded LAI and therefore the contribution of shaded leaves to GPP. We found that shaded leaves contribute 50%, 38%, 37%, 39%, 26%, 29% and 21% to the total GPP for broadleaf evergreen forest, broadleaf deciduous forest, evergreen conifer forest, deciduous conifer forest, shrub, C4 vegetation, and other vegetation, respectively. The global average of this ratio is 35%.

  12. Estimating the global burden of thalassogenic diseases: human infectious diseases caused by wastewater pollution of the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuval, Hillel

    2003-06-01

    This paper presents a preliminary attempt at obtaining an order-of-magnitude estimate of the global burden of disease (GBD) of human infectious diseases associated with swimming/bathing in coastal waters polluted by wastewater, and eating raw or lightly steamed filter-feeding shellfish harvested from such waters. Such diseases will be termed thalassogenic--caused by the sea. Until recently these human health effects have been viewed primarily as local phenomena, not generally included in the world agenda of marine scientists dealing with global marine pollution problems. The massive global scale of the problem can be visualized when one considers that the wastewater and human body wastes of a significant portion of the world's population who reside along the coastline or in the vicinity of the sea are discharged daily, directly or indirectly, into the marine coastal waters, much of it with little or no treatment. Every cubic metre of raw domestic wastewater discharged into the sea can carry millions of infectious doses of pathogenic microorganisms. It is estimated that globally, foreign and local tourists together spend some 2 billion man-days annually at coastal recreational resorts and many are often exposed there to coastal waters polluted by wastewater. Annually some 800 million meals of potentially contaminated filter-feeding shellfish/bivalves and other sea foods, harvested in polluted waters are consumed, much of it raw or lightly steamed. A number of scientific studies have shown that swimmers swallow significant amounts of polluted seawater and can become ill with gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases from the pathogens they ingest. Based on risk assessments from the World Health Organization (WHO) and academic research sources the present study has made an estimate that globally, each year, there are in excess of 120 million cases of gastrointestinal disease and in excess of 50 million cases of more severe respiratory diseases caused by swimming and

  13. Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

    2015-09-01

    Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  14. Estimation of daily global solar radiation as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, A.B.; Vrisman, A.L.; Galvani, E.

    2002-01-01

    The solar radiation received at the surface of the earth, apart from its relevance to several daily human activities, plays an important role in the growth and development of plants. The aim of the current work was to develop and gauge an estimation model for the evaluation of the global solar radiation flux density as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface. Radiometric data were collected at Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil (latitude 25°13' S, longitude 50°03' W, altitude 880 m). Estimated values of solar energy potential obtained as a function of only one measurement taken at solar noon time were confronted with those measured by a Robitzsch bimetalic actinograph, for days that presented insolation ratios higher than 0.85. This data set was submitted to a simple linear regression analysis, having been obtained a good adjustment between observed and calculated values. For the estimation of the coefficients a and b of Angström's equation, the method based on the solar energy potential at soil surface was used for the site under study. The methodology was efficient to assess the coefficients, aiming at the determination of the global solar radiation flux density, whith quickness and simplicity, having also found out that the criterium for the estimation of the solar energy potential is equivalent to that of the classical methodology of Angström. Knowledge of the available solar energy potential and global solar radiation flux density is of great importance for the estimation of the maximum atmospheric evaporative demand, of water consumption by irrigated crops, and also for building solar engineering equipment, such as driers, heaters, solar ovens, refrigerators, etc [pt

  15. Experimental Verification of a Global Exponentially Stable Nonlinear Wave Encounter Frequency Estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belleter, Dennis J.W.; Galeazzi, Roberto; Fossen, Thor Inge

    2015-01-01

    towing tank experiments using a container ship scale model. The estimates for both regular and irregular waves confirm the results. Finally, the estimator is applied to full-scale data gathered from a container ship operating in the Atlantic Ocean during a storm. Again the theoretical results...

  16. Relating Local to Global Spatial Knowledge: Heuristic Influence of Local Features on Direction Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Daniel W.; Montello, Daniel R.

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has examined heuristics--simplified decision-making rules-of-thumb--for geospatial reasoning. This study examined at two locations the influence of beliefs about local coastline orientation on estimated directions to local and distant places; estimates were made immediately or after fifteen seconds. This study goes beyond…

  17. The nexus between energy consumption and financial development: estimating the role of globalization in Next-11 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danish; Saud, Shah; Baloch, Muhammad Awais; Lodhi, Rab Nawaz

    2018-04-28

    In the modern era of globalization, the economic activities expand with the passage of time. This expansion may increase demand for energy both in developing and developed countries. Therefore, this study assesses the impact of financial development on energy consumption incorporating the role of globalization in Next-11 countries. A group of panel estimation techniques is used to analyze the panel data and time series data for the time 1990-2014. The empirical results of the study suggest that financial development stimulates energy consumption. Also, globalization increases demand for energy consumption, although the single country analysis suggests that the effect of globalization on energy demand is heterogeneous among N-11 countries. Furthermore, feedback hypothesis is confirmed between financial development and energy consumption. Also, bidirectional causality is found between economic growth and energy consumption. The findings urge for the attention of policymaker in emerging countries to develop a strategy to reduce the consequences of energy consumption by controlling resource transfer through globalization to the host country and by adopting energy conversation policies.

  18. A high resolution global wind atlas - improving estimation of world wind resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    to population centres, electrical transmission grids, terrain types, and protected land areas are important parts of the resource assessment downstream of the generation of wind climate statistics. Related to these issues of integration are the temporal characteristics and spatial correlation of the wind...... resources. These aspects will also be addressed by the Global Wind Atlas. The Global Wind Atlas, through a transparent methodology, will provide a unified, high resolution, and public domain dataset of wind energy resources for the whole world. The wind atlas data will be the most appropriate wind resource...

  19. ModFOLD6: an accurate web server for the global and local quality estimation of 3D protein models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghrabi, Ali H A; McGuffin, Liam J

    2017-07-03

    Methods that reliably estimate the likely similarity between the predicted and native structures of proteins have become essential for driving the acceptance and adoption of three-dimensional protein models by life scientists. ModFOLD6 is the latest version of our leading resource for Estimates of Model Accuracy (EMA), which uses a pioneering hybrid quasi-single model approach. The ModFOLD6 server integrates scores from three pure-single model methods and three quasi-single model methods using a neural network to estimate local quality scores. Additionally, the server provides three options for producing global score estimates, depending on the requirements of the user: (i) ModFOLD6_rank, which is optimized for ranking/selection, (ii) ModFOLD6_cor, which is optimized for correlations of predicted and observed scores and (iii) ModFOLD6 global for balanced performance. The ModFOLD6 methods rank among the top few for EMA, according to independent blind testing by the CASP12 assessors. The ModFOLD6 server is also continuously automatically evaluated as part of the CAMEO project, where significant performance gains have been observed compared to our previous server and other publicly available servers. The ModFOLD6 server is freely available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  20. Simulation of Porous Medium Hydrogen Storage - Estimation of Storage Capacity and Deliverability for a North German anticlinal Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, B.; Bauer, S.; Pfeiffer, W. T.

    2015-12-01

    Large scale energy storage will be required to mitigate offsets between electric energy demand and the fluctuating electric energy production from renewable sources like wind farms, if renewables dominate energy supply. Porous formations in the subsurface could provide the large storage capacities required if chemical energy carriers such as hydrogen gas produced during phases of energy surplus are stored. This work assesses the behavior of a porous media hydrogen storage operation through numerical scenario simulation of a synthetic, heterogeneous sandstone formation formed by an anticlinal structure. The structural model is parameterized using data available for the North German Basin as well as data given for formations with similar characteristics. Based on the geological setting at the storage site a total of 15 facies distributions is generated and the hydrological parameters are assigned accordingly. Hydraulic parameters are spatially distributed according to the facies present and include permeability, porosity relative permeability and capillary pressure. The storage is designed to supply energy in times of deficiency on the order of seven days, which represents the typical time span of weather conditions with no wind. It is found that using five injection/extraction wells 21.3 mio sm³ of hydrogen gas can be stored and retrieved to supply 62,688 MWh of energy within 7 days. This requires a ratio of working to cushion gas of 0.59. The retrievable energy within this time represents the demand of about 450000 people. Furthermore it is found that for longer storage times, larger gas volumes have to be used, for higher delivery rates additionally the number of wells has to be increased. The formation investigated here thus seems to offer sufficient capacity and deliverability to be used for a large scale hydrogen gas storage operation.

  1. An estimation of the capacity to produce hydrogen by wasted hydroelectric energy for the three largest Brazilian hydroelectric

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Padilha, Janine C.; Trindade, Leticia G. da; Souza, Roberto F. de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. of Chemistry], Email: janine@iq.ufrgs.br; Miguel, Marcelo [Itaipu Binacional, Foz do Iguacu, PR (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    The use of water wasted in hydroelectric plants as normalization dam excess, which constitute a hydrodynamic potential useful to generate electric energy which can be subsequently used to produce hydrogen and its subsequent consumption in fuel cells has been considered as an alternative for hydraulic energy-rich countries like Brazil. The case is examined in which all the water wasted in the hydroelectric plants, spilled by dam gates to maintain acceptable water levels, from the 3 largest Brazilian hydroelectric plants was used to produce hydrogen. During the year of 2008, the electric energy produced from this utilization would have been equivalent to 52.8 TWh, an amount that corresponds to an increase of ca. 15% of the total electric energy produced in the country. Furthermore, if this amount of hydrogen was used in the replacement of internal combustion vehicles by fuel cells, this would have prevented the production of 2.26 x 10{sup 7} ton of Co{sub 2} per year. This plan would also significantly decrease production and release of greenhouse gases. (author)

  2. Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

    2011-01-01

    Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.valueCorruption Perception Index (p.valuecorruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

  3. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havelaar, Arie H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072306122; Kirk, Martyn D; Torgerson, Paul R; Gibb, Herman J; Hald, Tine; Lake, Robin J; Praet, Nicolas; Bellinger, David C; de Silva, Nilanthi R; Gargouri, Neyla; Speybroeck, Niko; Cawthorne, Amy; Mathers, Colin; Stein, Claudia; Angulo, Frederick J; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2015-01-01

    Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne

  4. Estimating global copper demand until 2100 with regression and stock dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, Branco W.; Lin, Hsiu Chuan; Meloni, Marco A.; Wansleeben, Kjell; Heijungs, Reinout; van der Voet, Ester

    2018-01-01

    Future global copper demand is expected to keep rising due to copper's indispensable role in modern technologies. Unfortunately, increasing copper extraction and decreasing ore grades intensify energy use and generate higher environmental impact. A potential solution would be reaching a circular

  5. Beyond peak reservoir storage? A global estimate of declining water storage capacity in large reservoirs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wisser, D.; Frolking, S.; Hagen, Stephen; Bierkens, M.F.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/125022794

    2013-01-01

    Water storage is an important way to cope with temporal variation in water supply anddemand. The storage capacity and the lifetime of water storage reservoirs can besignificantly reduced by the inflow of sediments. A global, spatially explicit assessment ofreservoir storage loss in conjunction with

  6. A Global-Scale Estimate of Ecosystem Services from Urban Agriculture: Understanding Incentives for Natural Capital in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, N.; Stuhlmacher, M.; Miles, A.; Uludere, N.; Wagner, M.; Georgescu, M.; Herwig, C.; Gong, P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite substantial interest in urban agriculture, little is known about the aggregate benefits conferred by natural capital for growing food in cities. Here we perform a scenario-based analysis to quantify ecosystem services from adoption of urban agriculture at varying intensity. To drive the scenarios, we created global-scale estimates of vacant land, rooftop and building surface area, at one kilometer resolution, from remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data. We used national scale agricultural reports, climate and other geospatial data at global scale to estimate agricultural production and economic returns, storm-water avoidance, energy savings from avoided heating and cooling costs, and ecosystem services provided by nitrogen sequestration, pollination and biocontrol of pests. The results indicate that vacant lands, followed by rooftops, represent the largest opportunities for natural capital put to agricultural use in urban areas. Ecosystem services from putting such spaces to productive use are dominated by agricultural returns, but energy savings conferred by insulative characteristics of growth substrate also provide economic incentives. Storm water avoidance was estimated to be substantial, but no economic value was estimated. Relatively low economic returns were estimated from the other ecosystem services examined. In aggregate, approximately $10-100 billion in economic incentives, before costs, were estimated. The results showed that relatively developed, high-income countries stand the most to gain from urban agricultural adoption due to the unique combination of climate, crop mixture and crop prices. While the results indicate that urban agriculture is not a panacea for urban food security issues, there is potential to simultaneously ameliorate multiple issues around food, energy and water in urbanized areas.

  7. Estimating Global Seafloor Total Organic Carbon Using a Machine Learning Technique and Its Relevance to Methane Hydrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. R.; Wood, W. T.; Dale, J.

    2017-12-01

    Empirical and theoretical models of sub-seafloor organic matter transformation, degradation and methanogenesis require estimates of initial seafloor total organic carbon (TOC). This subsurface methane, under the appropriate geophysical and geochemical conditions may manifest as methane hydrate deposits. Despite the importance of seafloor TOC, actual observations of TOC in the world's oceans are sparse and large regions of the seafloor yet remain unmeasured. To provide an estimate in areas where observations are limited or non-existent, we have implemented interpolation techniques that rely on existing data sets. Recent geospatial analyses have provided accurate accounts of global geophysical and geochemical properties (e.g. crustal heat flow, seafloor biomass, porosity) through machine learning interpolation techniques. These techniques find correlations between the desired quantity (in this case TOC) and other quantities (predictors, e.g. bathymetry, distance from coast, etc.) that are more widely known. Predictions (with uncertainties) of seafloor TOC in regions lacking direct observations are made based on the correlations. Global distribution of seafloor TOC at 1 x 1 arc-degree resolution was estimated from a dataset of seafloor TOC compiled by Seiter et al. [2004] and a non-parametric (i.e. data-driven) machine learning algorithm, specifically k-nearest neighbors (KNN). Built-in predictor selection and a ten-fold validation technique generated statistically optimal estimates of seafloor TOC and uncertainties. In addition, inexperience was estimated. Inexperience is effectively the distance in parameter space to the single nearest neighbor, and it indicates geographic locations where future data collection would most benefit prediction accuracy. These improved geospatial estimates of TOC in data deficient areas will provide new constraints on methane production and subsequent methane hydrate accumulation.

  8. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

    2013-11-01

    Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  9. Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Clark

    Full Text Available Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5 rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013 and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG, 122,322 (GBD and 215,757 (WHO/CDC. The three groups used different methods: (i to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90% of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74% of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98% of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%. This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14 when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test.We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

  10. Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Hanf

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. METHODS: The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. FINDINGS: The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2= 0.89 included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001, logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006, Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001, presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006, and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001. A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. INTERPRETATIONS: Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

  11. Sub-grid scale representation of vegetation in global land surface schemes: implications for estimation of the terrestrial carbon sink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Melton

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystem models commonly represent vegetation in terms of plant functional types (PFTs and use their vegetation attributes in calculations of the energy and water balance as well as to investigate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sub-grid scale variability of PFTs in these models is represented using different approaches with the "composite" and "mosaic" approaches being the two end-members. The impact of these two approaches on the global carbon balance has been investigated with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v 1.2 coupled to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS v 3.6. In the composite (single-tile approach, the vegetation attributes of different PFTs present in a grid cell are aggregated and used in calculations to determine the resulting physical environmental conditions (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc. that are common to all PFTs. In the mosaic (multi-tile approach, energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile and each tile's physical land surface environmental conditions evolve independently. Pre-industrial equilibrium CLASS-CTEM simulations yield global totals of vegetation biomass, net primary productivity, and soil carbon that compare reasonably well with observation-based estimates and differ by less than 5% between the mosaic and composite configurations. However, on a regional scale the two approaches can differ by > 30%, especially in areas with high heterogeneity in land cover. Simulations over the historical period (1959–2005 show different responses to evolving climate and carbon dioxide concentrations from the two approaches. The cumulative global terrestrial carbon sink estimated over the 1959–2005 period (excluding land use change (LUC effects differs by around 5% between the two approaches (96.3 and 101.3 Pg, for the mosaic and composite approaches, respectively and compares well with the observation-based estimate of 82.2 ± 35 Pg C over the same

  12. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  13. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

  14. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken

    2016-04-01

    The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming (‘no position’) represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

  15. Global Precipitation Measurement. Report 7; Bridging from TRMM to GPM to 3-Hourly Precipitation Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Smith, Eric A.; Adams, W. James (Editor)

    2002-01-01

    Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.

  16. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A

    2015-04-21

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

  17. Toward Quantitative Estimation of the Effect of Aerosol Particles in the Global Climate Model and Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskes, H.; Boersma, F.; Dirksen, R.; van der A, R.; Veefkind, P.; Levelt, P.; Brinksma, E.; van Roozendael, M.; de Smedt, I.; Gleason, J.

    2005-05-01

    Based on measurements of GOME on ESA ERS-2, SCIAMACHY on ESA-ENVISAT, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the NASA EOS-Aura satellite there is now a unique 11-year dataset of global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide measurements from space. The retrieval approach consists of two steps. The first step is an application of the DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) approach which delivers the total absorption optical thickness along the light path (the slant column). For GOME and SCIAMACHY this is based on the DOAS implementation developed by BIRA/IASB. For OMI the DOAS implementation was developed in a collaboration between KNMI and NASA. The second retrieval step, developed at KNMI, estimates the tropospheric vertical column of NO2 based on the slant column, cloud fraction and cloud top height retrieval, stratospheric column estimates derived from a data assimilation approach and vertical profile estimates from space-time collocated profiles from the TM chemistry-transport model. The second step was applied with only minor modifications to all three instruments to generate a uniform 11-year data set. In our talk we will address the following topics: - A short summary of the retrieval approach and results - Comparisons with other retrievals - Comparisons with global and regional-scale models - OMI-SCIAMACHY and SCIAMACHY-GOME comparisons - Validation with independent measurements - Trend studies of NO2 for the past 11 years

  18. A comparison of methods to estimate daily global solar irradiation from other climatic variables on the Canadian prairies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, A.G.; McGinn, S.M.; Cheng, S.B.

    1996-01-01

    Historic estimates of daily global solar irradiation are often required for climatic impact studies. Regression equations with daily global solar irradiation, H, as the dependent variable and other climatic variables as the independent variables provide a practical way to estimate H at locations where it is not measured. They may also have potential to estimate H before 1953, the year of the first routine H measurements in Canada. This study compares several regression equations for calculating H on the Canadian prairies. Simple linear regression with daily bright sunshine duration as the dependent variable accounted for 90% of the variation of H in summer and 75% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with the daily air temperature range as the dependent variable accounted for 45% of the variation of H in summer and only 6% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with precipitation status (wet or dry) as the dependent variable accounted for only 35% of the summer-time variation in H, but stratifying other regression analyses into wet and dry days reduced their root-mean-squared errors. For periods with sufficiently dense bright sunshine observations (i.e. after 1960), however, H was more accurately estimated from spatially interpolated bright sunshine duration than from locally observed air temperature range or precipitation status. The daily air temperature range and precipitation status may have utility for estimating H for periods before 1953, when they are the only widely available climatic data on the Canadian prairies. Between 1953 and 1989, a period of large climatic variation, the regression coefficients did not vary significantly between contrasting years with cool-wet, intermediate and warm-dry summers. They should apply equally well earlier in the century. (author)

  19. A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putti, Fernando Ferrari; Filho, Luis Roberto Almeida Gabriel; Gabriel, Camila Pires Cremasco; Neto, Alfredo Bonini; Bonini, Carolina Dos Santos Batista; Rodrigues Dos Reis, André

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. An approach to global rovibrational analysis based on anharmonic ladder operators: Application to Hydrogen Selenide (H{sub 2}{sup 80}Se)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez-Bajo, O. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva (Spain); Carvajal, M., E-mail: miguel.carvajal@dfa.uhu.es [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva (Spain); Perez-Bernal, F. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva (Spain)

    2012-01-02

    Graphical abstract: Schematic diagram of a bent triatomic molecule, depicting the atom numbering, and molecular axis system. An algebraic approach to perform global rovibrational analysis is presented. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Novel approach for a global rovibrational analysis of polyatomic molecules spectra. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer One-dimensional vibron model limit combined with rotational degrees of freedom. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Phase space Hamiltonian written in terms of anharmonic ladder operators. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Algebraic calculations performed with a symmetry-adapted rovibrational basis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Description of the rovibrational spectrum of H{sub 2}Se in the ground electronic state. - Abstract: An algebraic approach to perform global rovibrational analysis of molecular spectra is presented. The approach combines the one-dimensional limit of the vibron model with rotational degrees of freedom. The model is based on the expression of the phase space Hamiltonian in terms of anharmonic ladder operators and the use of a symmetry-adapted basis set given by the linear combination of products of local vibrational and rotational wavefunctions. As an example we model the rovibrational spectra of a bent triatomic molecule, providing a global analysis for vibrational bands up to polyad 12 and J{sub max} = 5 of Hydrogen Selenide (H{sub 2}Se). Satisfactory fits of vibrational and rovibrational energies are obtained. A prediction of 2579 rovibrational energies up to J Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 5 and polyad 12 for the 140 lowest vibrational bands is also obtained. A possible extension of the model to reach spectroscopic quality results in larger molecular systems is also given.

  1. Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Rylett, Margaret; Gmel, Gerhard; Gmel, Gerrit; Kehoe-Chan, Tara A K; Rehm, Jürgen

    2013-05-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. Global Performance of a Fast Parameterization Scheme for Estimating Surface Solar Radiation from MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yang, K.; Sun, Z.; Qin, J.; Niu, X.

    2016-12-01

    A fast parameterization scheme named SUNFLUX is used in this study to estimate instantaneous surface solar radiation (SSR) based on products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard both Terra and Aqua platforms. The scheme mainly takes into account the absorption and scattering processes due to clouds, aerosols and gas in the atmosphere. The estimated instantaneous SSR is evaluated against surface observations obtained from seven stations of the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), four stations in the North China Plain (NCP) and 40 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The statistical results for evaluation against these three datasets show that the relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of SUNFLUX are less than 15%, 16% and 17%, respectively. Daily SSR is derived through temporal upscaling from the MODIS-based instantaneous SSR estimates, and is validated against surface observations. The relative RMSE values for daily SSR estimates are about 16% at the seven SURFRAD stations, four NCP stations, 40 BSRN stations and 90 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) radiation stations.

  3. Campbell-Bristow development Model for Estimating Global Solar radiation in the Region of Junin, Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Becquer Frauberth Camayo-Lapa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to have a tool to estimate the monthly and annual solar radiation on the horizontal surface in Junín region, in which is not available with this information, adapted Bristow-Campbell (1984 model for estimating global solar radiation monthly average.   To develop the model of Bristow-Campbell that estimates the average daily global solar radiation monthly modeling technique proposed by Espinoza (2010, were recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures of 19 weather stations and the equations proposed  by the Solar High Peru 2003 was adapted to this model.  The Bristow-Campbell model was developed with data recorded in stations: Santa Ana, Tarma and Satipo belonging to Sierra and Selva, respectively. The performance of applications calculated solar radiation was determined by considering the OLADE (1992 that solar radiation over 4,0 kWh/m2/day are profitable and 5,0 kWh/m2/day very profitable. The results indicate that the monthly average global solar radiation in Junín  region is 5,3  kWh/m2/day corresponding to the  4,2 Forest and the Sierra 5,6 kWh/m2/day kWh/m2/day. Profitability is determined for the less profitable Selva and Sierra is very profitable. In addition, the operating model is simple and available to all users. We conclude that application of the Bristow-Campbell model adapted, it is an instrument of great utility to generate a comprehensive database of available solar radiation in Junín region.

  4. Respiration of new and old carbon in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of global oceanic gross primary productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Matheus C.; Schulz, Kai G.; Eyre, Bradley D.

    2017-06-01

    New respiration (Rnew, of freshly fixated carbon) and old respiration (Rold, of storage carbon) were estimated for different regions of the global surface ocean using published data on simultaneous measurements of the following: (1) primary productivity using 14C (14PP); (2) gross primary productivity (GPP) based on 18O or O2; and (3) net community productivity (NCP) using O2. The ratio Rnew/GPP in 24 h incubations was typically between 0.1 and 0.3 regardless of depth and geographical area, demonstrating that values were almost constant regardless of large variations in temperature (0 to 27°C), irradiance (surface to 100 m deep), nutrients (nutrient-rich and nutrient-poor waters), and community composition (diatoms, flagellates, etc,). As such, between 10 and 30% of primary production in the surface ocean is respired in less than 24 h, and most respiration (between 55 and 75%) was of older carbon. Rnew was most likely associated with autotrophs, with minor contribution from heterotrophic bacteria. Patterns were less clear for Rold. Short 14C incubations are less affected by respiratory losses. Global oceanic GPP is estimated to be between 70 and 145 Gt C yr-1.Plain Language SummaryHere we present a comprehensive coverage of ocean new and old respiration. Our results show that nearly 20% of oceanic gross primary production is consumed in the first 24 h. However, most (about 60%) respiration is of older carbon fixed at least 24 h before its consumption. Rates of new respiration relative to gross primary production were remarkably constant for the entire ocean, which allowed a preliminary estimation of global primary productivity as between 70 and 145 gt C yr-1.

  5. Systematical estimation of GPM-based global satellite mapping of precipitation products over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Haigen; Yang, Bogang; Yang, Shengtian; Huang, Yingchun; Dong, Guotao; Bai, Juan; Wang, Zhiwei

    2018-03-01

    As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory satellite continues its mission, new version 6 products for Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) have been released. However, few studies have systematically evaluated the GSMaP products over mainland China. This study quantitatively evaluated three GPM-based GSMaP version 6 precipitation products for China and eight subregions referring to the Chinese daily Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP). The GSMaP products included near-real-time (GSMaP_NRT), microwave-infrared reanalyzed (GSMaP_MVK), and gauge-adjusted (GSMaP_Gau) data. Additionally, the gauge-adjusted Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG_Gau) was also assessed and compared with GSMaP_Gau. The analyses of the selected daily products were carried out at spatiotemporal resolutions of 1/4° for the period of March 2014 to December 2015 in consideration of the resolution of CPAP and the consistency of the coverage periods of the satellite products. The results indicated that GSMaP_MVK and GSMaP_NRT performed comparably and underdetected light rainfall events (Pearson linear correlation coefficient (CC), fractional standard error (FSE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE) metrics during the summer. Compared with GSMaP_NRT and GSMaP_MVK, GSMaP_Gau possessed significantly improved metrics over mainland China and the eight subregions and performed better in terms of CC, RMSE, and FSE but underestimated precipitation to a greater degree than IMERG_Gau. As a quantitative assessment of the GPM-era GSMaP products, these validation results will supply helpful references for both end users and algorithm developers. However, the study findings need to be confirmed over a longer future study period when the longer-period IMERG retrospectively-processed data are available.

  6. Developing Methods for Fraction Cover Estimation Toward Global Mapping of Ecosystem Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, D. A.; Thompson, D. R.; Dennison, P. E.; Green, R. O.; Kokaly, R. F.; Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.; Stavros, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation seldom covers an entire pixel due to spatial mixing at many scales. Estimating the fractional contributions of photosynthetic green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and substrate (soil, rock, etc.) to mixed spectra can significantly improve quantitative remote measurement of terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional methods for estimating fractional vegetation cover rely on vegetation indices that are sensitive to variable substrate brightness, NPV and sun-sensor geometry. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) is an alternate framework that provides estimates of fractional cover. However, simple SMA, in which the same set of endmembers is used for an entire image, fails to account for natural spectral variability within a cover class. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) is a variant of SMA that allows the number and types of pure spectra to vary on a per-pixel basis, thereby accounting for endmember variability and generating more accurate cover estimates, but at a higher computational cost. Routine generation and delivery of GV, NPV, and substrate (S) fractions using MESMA is currently in development for large, diverse datasets acquired by the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). We present initial results, including our methodology for ensuring consistency and generalizability of fractional cover estimates across a wide range of regions, seasons, and biomes. We also assess uncertainty and provide a strategy for validation. GV, NPV, and S fractions are an important precursor for deriving consistent measurements of ecosystem parameters such as plant stress and mortality, functional trait assessment, disturbance susceptibility and recovery, and biomass and carbon stock assessment. Copyright 2016 California Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. We acknowledge support of the US Government, NASA, the Earth Science Division and Terrestrial Ecology program.

  7. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eugenia E; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A; Groen, Thomas A; Burkle, Frederick M; Kushner, Adam L

    2016-08-10

    Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People's Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

  8. A generalized adjoint framework for sensitivity and global error estimation in time-dependent nuclear reactor simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; Anitescu, M.; Adams, M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop an abstract framework for computing the adjoint to the neutron/nuclide burnup equations posed as a system of differential algebraic equations. ► We validate use of the adjoint for computing both sensitivity to uncertain inputs and for estimating global time discretization error. ► Flexibility of the framework is leveraged to add heat transfer physics and compute its adjoint without a reformulation of the adjoint system. ► Such flexibility is crucial for high performance computing applications. -- Abstract: We develop a general framework for computing the adjoint variable to nuclear engineering problems governed by a set of differential–algebraic equations (DAEs). The nuclear engineering community has a rich history of developing and applying adjoints for sensitivity calculations; many such formulations, however, are specific to a certain set of equations, variables, or solution techniques. Any change or addition to the physics model would require a reformulation of the adjoint problem and substantial difficulties in its software implementation. In this work we propose an abstract framework that allows for the modification and expansion of the governing equations, leverages the existing theory of adjoint formulation for DAEs, and results in adjoint equations that can be used to efficiently compute sensitivities for parametric uncertainty quantification. Moreover, as we justify theoretically and demonstrate numerically, the same framework can be used to estimate global time discretization error. We first motivate the framework and show that the coupled Bateman and transport equations, which govern the time-dependent neutronic behavior of a nuclear reactor, may be formulated as a DAE system with a power constraint. We then use a variational approach to develop the parameter-dependent adjoint framework and apply existing theory to give formulations for sensitivity and global time discretization error estimates using the adjoint

  9. Error estimation and global fitting in transverse-relaxation dispersion experiments to determine chemical-exchange parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishima, Rieko; Torchia, Dennis A.

    2005-01-01

    Off-resonance effects can introduce significant systematic errors in R 2 measurements in constant-time Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) transverse relaxation dispersion experiments. For an off-resonance chemical shift of 500 Hz, 15 N relaxation dispersion profiles obtained from experiment and computer simulation indicated a systematic error of ca. 3%. This error is three- to five-fold larger than the random error in R 2 caused by noise. Good estimates of total R 2 uncertainty are critical in order to obtain accurate estimates in optimized chemical exchange parameters and their uncertainties derived from χ 2 minimization of a target function. Here, we present a simple empirical approach that provides a good estimate of the total error (systematic + random) in 15 N R 2 values measured for the HIV protease. The advantage of this empirical error estimate is that it is applicable even when some of the factors that contribute to the off-resonance error are not known. These errors are incorporated into a χ 2 minimization protocol, in which the Carver-Richards equation is used fit the observed R 2 dispersion profiles, that yields optimized chemical exchange parameters and their confidence limits. Optimized parameters are also derived, using the same protein sample and data-fitting protocol, from 1 H R 2 measurements in which systematic errors are negligible. Although 1 H and 15 N relaxation profiles of individual residues were well fit, the optimized exchange parameters had large uncertainties (confidence limits). In contrast, when a single pair of exchange parameters (the exchange lifetime, τ ex , and the fractional population, p a ), were constrained to globally fit all R 2 profiles for residues in the dimer interface of the protein, confidence limits were less than 8% for all optimized exchange parameters. In addition, F-tests showed that quality of the fits obtained using τ ex , p a as global parameters were not improved when these parameters were free to fit the R

  10. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Anton Francesch, Judit

    1992-01-01

    Hydrogen is an especially attractive transportation fuel. It is the least polluting fuel available, and can be produced anywhere there is water and a clean source of electricity. A fuel cycle in which hydrogen is produced by solar-electrolysis of water, or by gasification of renewably grown biomass, and then used in a fuel-cell powered electric-motor vehicle (FCEV), would produce little or no local, regional, or global pollution. Hydrogen FCEVs would combine the best features of bat...

  11. The first estimates of global nucleation mode aerosol concentrations based on satellite measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kulmala

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the Earth's climate system by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Satellites are increasingly used to obtain information on properties of aerosol particles with a diameter larger than about 100 nm. However, new aerosol particles formed by nucleation are initially much smaller and grow into the optically active size range on time scales of many hours. In this paper we derive proxies, based on process understanding and ground-based observations, to determine the concentrations of these new particles and their spatial distribution using satellite data. The results are applied to provide seasonal variation of nucleation mode concentration. The proxies describe the concentration of nucleation mode particles over continents. The source rates are related to both regional nucleation and nucleation associated with more restricted sources. The global pattern of nucleation mode particle number concentration predicted by satellite data using our proxies is compared qualitatively against both observations and global model simulations.

  12. Hydrogen energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-03-01

    This book consists of seven chapters, which deals with hydrogen energy with discover and using of hydrogen, Korean plan for hydrogen economy and background, manufacturing technique on hydrogen like classification and hydrogen manufacture by water splitting, hydrogen storage technique with need and method, hydrogen using technique like fuel cell, hydrogen engine, international trend on involving hydrogen economy, technical current for infrastructure such as hydrogen station and price, regulation, standard, prospect and education for hydrogen safety and system. It has an appendix on related organization with hydrogen and fuel cell.

  13. Estimating pesticide emission fractions for use in LCA: A global consensus-building effort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantke, Peter; Anton, Assumpcio; Basset-Mens, Claudine

    2016-01-01

    agreement on recommended default agricultural pesticide emission fractions to environmental media. Consensual decisions on the assessment framework are (a) primary distributions are used as inputs for LCIA, while further investigating how to assess secondary emissions, (b) framework and LCA application...... and application method scenarios will be based on sensitiv ity analysis, (g) default emission estimates for LCA will be derived from production-weighted averages, and (h) emission fractions will be reported spatially disaggregated. Recommendations for LCA practitioners and database developers are (a) LCA studies...... the field as part of technosphere and ecosphere, (e) fate and exposure processes should be included in LCIA (e.g. crop uptake), (f) default emission estimates should be used in absence of detailed scenario data, (g) and all assumptions should be reported. The recommended pesticide emission fractions results...

  14. An estimation of global solar p-mode frequencies from IRIS network data: 1989-1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebryanskiy, A.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh.; Kholikov, Sh.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Schmider, F. X.; Grec, G.; Cacciani, A.; Palle, P. L.; Lazrek, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2001-06-01

    The IRIS network has accumulated full disk helioseismological data since July 1989, i.e. a complete 11-year solar cycle. Since the last paper publishing a frequency list [A&A 317 (1997) L71], not only has the network acquired new data, but has also developed new co-operative programs with compatible instruments [Abstr. SOHO 6/GONG 98 Workshop (1998) 51], so that merging IRIS files with these co-operative program data sets has made possible the improvement of the overall duty cycle. This paper presents new estimations of low degree p-mode frequencies obtained from this IRIS++ data bank covering the period 1989-1996, as well as the variation of their main parameters along the total range of magnetic activity, from before the last maximum to the very minimum. A preliminary estimation of the peak profile asymmetries is also included.

  15. Global a priori estimates for the inhomogeneous Landau equation with moderately soft potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Stephen; Silvestre, Luis; Snelson, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    We establish a priori upper bounds for solutions to the spatially inhomogeneous Landau equation in the case of moderately soft potentials, with arbitrary initial data, under the assumption that mass, energy and entropy densities stay under control. Our pointwise estimates decay polynomially in the velocity variable. We also show that if the initial data satisfies a Gaussian upper bound, this bound is propagated for all positive times.

  16. Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: Re-estimation and country results

    OpenAIRE

    Cobham, Alex; Janský, Petr

    2017-01-01

    International corporate tax is an important source of government revenue, especially in lower-income countries. An important recent study of the scale of this problem was carried out by International Monetary Fund researchers Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud De Mooij, and Michael Keen. We first re-estimate their innovative model, and then explore the effects of introducing higher-quality revenue data from the ICTD-WIDER Government Revenue Database. Whereas Crivelli et al. report results for two country...

  17. Precise Receiver Clock Offset Estimations According to Each Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thongtan, Thayathip; Tirawanichakul, Pawit; Satirapod, Chalermchon

    2017-12-01

    Each GNSS constellation operates its own system times; namely, GPS system time (GPST), GLONASS system time (GLONASST), BeiDou system time (BDT) and Galileo system time (GST). They could be traced back to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) scale and are aligned to GPST. This paper estimates the receiver clock offsets to three timescales: GPST, GLONASST and BDT. The two measurement scenarios use two identical multi-GNSS geodetic receivers connected to the same geodetic antenna through a splitter. One receiver is driven by its internal oscillators and another receiver is connected to the external frequency oscillators, caesium frequency standard, kept as the Thailand standard time scale at the National Institute of Metrology (Thailand) called UTC(NIMT). The three weeks data are observed at 30 seconds sample rate. The receiver clock offsets with respected to the three system time are estimated and analysed through the geodetic technique of static Precise Point Positioning (PPP) using a data processing software developed by Wuhan University - Positioning And Navigation Data Analyst (PANDA) software. The estimated receiver clock offsets are around 32, 33 and 18 nanoseconds from GPST, GLONASST and BDT respectively. This experiment is initially stated that each timescale is inter-operated with GPST and further measurements on receiver internal delay has to be determined for clock comparisons especially the high accuracy clock at timing laboratories.

  18. Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV Dyads for Estimating Global Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Todd A; Axelrod, Bradley N; Patel, Ronak; Crawford, John R

    2015-08-01

    All possible two-subtest combinations of the core Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV (WAIS-IV) subtests were evaluated as possible viable short forms for estimating full-scale IQ (FSIQ). Validity of the dyads was evaluated relative to FSIQ in a large clinical sample (N = 482) referred for neuropsychological assessment. Sample validity measures included correlations, mean discrepancies, and levels of agreement between dyad estimates and FSIQ scores. In addition, reliability and validity coefficients were derived from WAIS-IV standardization data. The Coding + Information dyad had the strongest combination of reliability and validity data. However, several other dyads yielded comparable psychometric performance, albeit with some variability in their particular strengths. We also observed heterogeneity between validity coefficients from the clinical and standardization-based estimates for several dyads. Thus, readers are encouraged to also consider the individual psychometric attributes, their clinical or research goals, and client or sample characteristics when selecting among the dyadic short forms. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Noninvasive estimation of global activation sequence using the extended Kalman filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chenguang; He, Bin

    2011-03-01

    A new algorithm for 3-D imaging of the activation sequence from noninvasive body surface potentials is proposed. After formulating the nonlinear relationship between the 3-D activation sequence and the body surface recordings during activation, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is utilized to estimate the activation sequence in a recursive way. The state vector containing the activation sequence is optimized during iteration by updating the error variance/covariance matrix. A new regularization scheme is incorporated into the "predict" procedure of EKF to tackle the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. The EKF-based algorithm shows good performance in simulation under single-site pacing. Between the estimated activation sequences and true values, the average correlation coefficient (CC) is 0.95, and the relative error (RE) is 0.13. The average localization error (LE) when localizing the pacing site is 3.0 mm. Good results are also obtained under dual-site pacing (CC = 0.93, RE = 0.16, and LE = 4.3 mm). Furthermore, the algorithm shows robustness to noise. The present promising results demonstrate that the proposed EKF-based inverse approach can noninvasively estimate the 3-D activation sequence with good accuracy and the new algorithm shows good features due to the application of EKF.

  20. Can the Discrepancy between Locally and Globally Derived Neutral Hydrogen Mass Functions be Explained by a Varying Value of M ⋆?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minchin, Robert F.

    2017-09-01

    I investigate whether it is possible to reconcile the recent Arecibo Legacy Fast Arecibo L-band Feed Array (ALFALFA) observation that the neutral hydrogen mass function (HIMF) across different galactic densities has the same, non-flat, faint-end slope, with observations of isolated galaxies and many galaxy groups that show their HIMFs to have flat faint-end slopes. I find that a fairly simple model in which the position of the knee in the mass function of each individual group is allowed to vary is able to account for both of these observations. If this model reflects reality, the ALFALFA results point to an interesting “conspiracy” whereby the differing group HIMFs always sum up to form global HIMFs with the same faint-end slope in different environments. More generally, this result implies that global environmental HIMFs do not necessarily reflect the HIMFs in individual groups belonging to that environment and cannot be used to directly measure variations in group-specific HIMFs with environment.

  1. Can the Discrepancy between Locally and Globally Derived Neutral Hydrogen Mass Functions be Explained by a Varying Value of M {sup *}?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minchin, Robert F., E-mail: rminchin@naic.edu [Arecibo Observatory, Universities Space Research Association, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612 (United States)

    2017-09-20

    I investigate whether it is possible to reconcile the recent Arecibo Legacy Fast Arecibo L-band Feed Array (ALFALFA) observation that the neutral hydrogen mass function (HIMF) across different galactic densities has the same, non-flat, faint-end slope, with observations of isolated galaxies and many galaxy groups that show their HIMFs to have flat faint-end slopes. I find that a fairly simple model in which the position of the knee in the mass function of each individual group is allowed to vary is able to account for both of these observations. If this model reflects reality, the ALFALFA results point to an interesting “conspiracy” whereby the differing group HIMFs always sum up to form global HIMFs with the same faint-end slope in different environments. More generally, this result implies that global environmental HIMFs do not necessarily reflect the HIMFs in individual groups belonging to that environment and cannot be used to directly measure variations in group-specific HIMFs with environment.

  2. Hydrogen and its challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schal, M.

    2008-01-01

    The future of hydrogen as a universal fuel is in jeopardy unless we are able to produce it through an environment-friendly way and at a competitive cost. Today almost all the hydrogen used in the world is produced by steam reforming of natural gas. This process releases 8 tonnes of CO 2 per tonne of hydrogen produced. Other means of producing hydrogen are the hydrolysis, the very high temperature hydrolysis, and the direct chemical dissociation of water, these processes are greener than steam reforming but less efficient. About one hundred buses in the world operate on fuel cells fed by hydrogen, but it appears that the first industrial use of hydrogen at great scale will be for the local generation of electricity. Globally the annual budget for research concerning hydrogen is 4.4 milliard (10 9 ) euros worldwide. (A.C.)

  3. Relative motions of the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates estimated by the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Kristine M.; Freymueller, Jeff

    1995-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements spanning approximately 3 years have been used to determine velocities for 7 sites on the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates. The site velocities agree with both plate model predictions and other space geodetic techniques. We find no evidence for internal deformation of the interior of the Australian plate. Wellington, New Zealand, located in the Australian-Pacific plate boundary zone, moves 20 +/- 5 mm/yr west-southwest relative to the Australian plate. Its velocity lies midway between the predicted velocities of the two plates. Relative Euler vectors for the Australia-Antarctica and Pacific-Antarctica plates agree within one standard deviation with the NUVEL-1A predictions.

  4. Ultrasensitivity in signaling cascades revisited: Linking local and global ultrasensitivity estimations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Altszyler

    Full Text Available Ultrasensitive response motifs, capable of converting graded stimuli into binary responses, are well-conserved in signal transduction networks. Although it has been shown that a cascade arrangement of multiple ultrasensitive modules can enhance the system's ultrasensitivity, how a given combination of layers affects a cascade's ultrasensitivity remains an open question for the general case. Here, we introduce a methodology that allows us to determine the presence of sequestration effects and to quantify the relative contribution of each module to the overall cascade's ultrasensitivity. The proposed analysis framework provides a natural link between global and local ultrasensitivity descriptors and it is particularly well-suited to characterize and understand mathematical models used to study real biological systems. As a case study, we have considered three mathematical models introduced by O'Shaughnessy et al. to study a tunable synthetic MAPK cascade, and we show how our methodology can help modelers better understand alternative models.

  5. A calculation code for estimating the global inventory of tritium from the ICSI Pilot Installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelescu, Alexandru Octavian; Prisecaru, Ilie; Stefanescu, Ioan

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes the TRITINV program which performs a global updating of the total tritium inventory within the whole ICSI heavy water detritiation installation. The calculation does not take into account the distribution or the type of the tritium inventory on the installation modules. The program stores all the values submitted by user or computed, into a database which is permanently upgraded. It can also create charts based on its data and print or export this data in other formats. The application has been successfully tested and responded well to the initial requirements. It can be modified or improved anytime using the Microsoft Access 2003 Program. An important advancement would consist in upgrading the TRITINV into a stand-alone application by editing and compiling it in Microsoft Visual Studio 2005. (authors)

  6. A frequency domain global parameter estimation method for multiple reference frequency response measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, C. Y.; Tsuei, Y. G.; Allemang, R. J.; Brown, D. L.

    1988-10-01

    A method of using the matrix Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model in the Laplace domain for multiple-reference global parameter identification is presented. This method is particularly applicable to the area of modal analysis where high modal density exists. The method is also applicable when multiple reference frequency response functions are used to characterise linear systems. In order to facilitate the mathematical solution, the Forsythe orthogonal polynomial is used to reduce the ill-conditioning of the formulated equations and to decouple the normal matrix into two reduced matrix blocks. A Complex Mode Indicator Function (CMIF) is introduced, which can be used to determine the proper order of the rational polynomials.

  7. Improving global estimates of syphilis in pregnancy by diagnostic test type: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, D Cal; Lin, Carol; Newman, Lori; Wijesooriya, N Saman; Kamb, Mary

    2015-06-01

    "Probable active syphilis," is defined as seroreactivity in both non-treponemal and treponemal tests. A correction factor of 65%, namely the proportion of pregnant women reactive in one syphilis test type that were likely reactive in the second, was applied to reported syphilis seropositivity data reported to WHO for global estimates of syphilis during pregnancy. To identify more accurate correction factors based on test type reported. Medline search using: "Syphilis [Mesh] and Pregnancy [Mesh]," "Syphilis [Mesh] and Prenatal Diagnosis [Mesh]," and "Syphilis [Mesh] and Antenatal [Keyword]. Eligible studies must have reported results for pregnant or puerperal women for both non-treponemal and treponemal serology. We manually calculated the crude percent estimates of subjects with both reactive treponemal and reactive non-treponemal tests among subjects with reactive treponemal and among subjects with reactive non-treponemal tests. We summarized the percent estimates using random effects models. Countries reporting both reactive non-treponemal and reactive treponemal testing required no correction factor. Countries reporting non-treponemal testing or treponemal testing alone required a correction factor of 52.2% and 53.6%, respectively. Countries not reporting test type required a correction factor of 68.6%. Future estimates should adjust reported maternal syphilis seropositivity by test type to ensure accuracy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  8. Preterm-associated visual impairment and estimates of retinopathy of prematurity at regional and global levels for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blencowe, Hannah; Lawn, Joy E.; Vazquez, Thomas; Fielder, Alistair; Gilbert, Clare

    2013-01-01

    Background: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a leading cause of potentially avoidable childhood blindness worldwide. We estimated ROP burden at the global and regional levels to inform screening and treatment programs, research, and data priorities. Methods: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were undertaken to estimate the risk of ROP and subsequent visual impairment for surviving preterm babies by level of neonatal care, access to ROP screening, and treatment. A compartmental model was used to estimate ROP cases and numbers of visually impaired survivors. Results: In 2010, an estimated 184,700 (uncertainty range: 169,600–214,500) preterm babies developed any stage of ROP, 20,000 (15,500–27,200) of whom became blind or severely visually impaired from ROP, and a further 12,300 (8,300–18,400) developed mild/moderate visual impairment. Sixty-five percent of those visually impaired from ROP were born in middle-income regions; 6.2% (4.3–8.9%) of all ROP visually impaired infants were born at >32-wk gestation. Visual impairment from other conditions associated with preterm birth will affect larger numbers of survivors. Conclusion: Improved care, including oxygen delivery and monitoring, for preterm babies in all facility settings would reduce the number of babies affected with ROP. Improved data tracking and coverage of locally adapted screening/treatment programs are urgently required. PMID:24366462

  9. CMORPH 8 Km: A Method that Produces Global Precipitation Estimates from Passive Microwave and Infrared Data at High Spatial and Temporal Resolution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A new technique is presented in which half-hourly global precipitation estimates derived from passive microwave satellite scans are propagated by motion vectors...

  10. Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean region in Turkey by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahan, Muhittin; Yakut, Emre

    2016-01-01

    In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to estimate monthly average global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for selected 5 locations in Mediterranean region for period of 18 years (1993-2010). Meteorological and geographical data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The ANN architecture designed is a feed-forward back-propagation model with one-hidden layer containing 21 neurons with hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as the transfer function and one output layer utilized a linear transfer function (purelin). The training algorithm used in ANN model was the Levenberg Marquand back propagation algorith (trainlm). Results obtained from ANN model were compared with measured meteorological values by using statistical methods. A correlation coefficient of 97.97 (~98%) was obtained with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.852 MJ/m 2 , mean square error (MSE) of 0.725 MJ/m 2 , mean absolute bias error (MABE) 10.659MJ/m 2 , and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.8%. Results show good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar radiation. We suggest that the developed ANN model can be used to predict solar radiation another location and conditions

  11. Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

  12. Mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil, 1990 to 2015, according to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Carvalho Malta

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs are the leading health problem globally and generate high numbers of premature deaths and loss of quality of life. The aim here was to describe the major groups of causes of death due to NCDs and the ranking of the leading causes of premature death between 1990 and 2015, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2015 study estimates for Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study covering Brazil and its 27 federal states. METHODS: This was a descriptive study on rates of mortality due to NCDs, with corrections for garbage codes and underreporting of deaths. RESULTS: This study shows the epidemiological transition in Brazil between 1990 and 2015, with increasing proportional mortality due to NCDs, followed by violence, and decreasing mortality due to communicable, maternal and neonatal causes within the global burden of diseases. NCDs had the highest mortality rates over the whole period, but with reductions in cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Diabetes increased over this period. NCDs were the leading causes of premature death (30 to 69 years: ischemic heart diseases an