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Sample records for estimate prey size

  1. Gluttonous predators: how to estimate prey size when there are too many prey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MS. Araújo

    Full Text Available Prey size is an important factor in food consumption. In studies of feeding ecology, prey items are usually measured individually using calipers or ocular micrometers. Among amphibians and reptiles, there are species that feed on large numbers of small prey items (e.g. ants, termites. This high intake makes it difficult to estimate prey size consumed by these animals. We addressed this problem by developing and evaluating a procedure for subsampling the stomach contents of such predators in order to estimate prey size. Specifically, we developed a protocol based on a bootstrap procedure to obtain a subsample with a precision error of at the most 5%, with a confidence level of at least 95%. This guideline should reduce the sampling effort and facilitate future studies on the feeding habits of amphibians and reptiles, and also provide a means of obtaining precise estimates of prey size.

  2. Prey size selection and cannibalistic behaviour of juvenile barramundi Lates calcarifer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, F F; Qin, J G

    2015-05-01

    This study assessed the cannibalistic behaviour of juvenile barramundi Lates calcarifer and examined the relationship between prey size selection and energy gain of cannibals. Prey handling time and capture success by cannibals were used to estimate the ratio of energy gain to energy cost in prey selection. Cannibals selected smaller prey despite its capability of ingesting larger prey individuals. In behavioural analysis, prey handling time significantly increased with prey size, but it was not significantly affected by cannibal size. Conversely, capture success significantly decreased with the increase of both prey and cannibal sizes. The profitability indices showed that the smaller prey provides the most energy return for cannibals of all size classes. These results indicate that L. calcarifer cannibals select smaller prey for more profitable return. The behavioural analysis, however, indicates that L. calcarifer cannibals attack prey of all size at a similar rate but ingest smaller prey more often, suggesting that prey size selection is passively orientated rather than at the predator's choice. The increase of prey escape ability and morphological constraint contribute to the reduction of intracohort cannibalism as fish grow larger. This study contributes to the understanding of intracohort cannibalism and development of strategies to reduce fish cannibalistic mortalities. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  3. Feeding rates in the chaetognath Sagitta elegans : effects of prey size, prey swimming behaviour and small-scale turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saito, H.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    distances. We develop a simple prey encounter rate model by describing the swimming prey as a 'force dipole' and assuming that a critical signal strength is required to elicit an attack. By fitting the model to the observations, a critical signal strength of 10(-2) cm s(-1) is estimated; this is very...... at rates up to an order of magnitude higher than similarly sized females, probably owing to differences in swimming behaviour. Sagitta elegans is an ambush predator that perceives its prey by hydromechanical signals. Faster swimming prey generates stronger signals and is, hence, perceived at longer...

  4. Prey size spectra and prey availability of larval and small juvenile cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Peter

    1997-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to describe the prey preference characteristics of cod larvae and assess preference variability in relation to species and size composition of copepod prey. A further aim is to examine the hypothesis that dietary prey size spectra remain the same during the larval ...... were indicated, dependent on location. The findings illustrate the usefulness of coupling dietary prey size spectra and biomass spectra of available prey sizes during studies of ichthyoplankton feeding ecology. (C) 1997 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles....

  5. Joint evolution of predator body size and prey-size preference.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Troost, T.A.; Kooi, B.W.; Dieckmann, U.

    2007-01-01

    We studied the joint evolution of predator body size and prey-size preference based on dynamic energy budget theory. The predators' demography and their functional response are based on general eco-physiological principles involving the size of both predator and prey. While our model can account for

  6. Joint evolution of predator body size and prey-size preference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Troost, Tineke; Kooi, Bob; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2007-01-01

    We studied the joint evolution of predator body size and prey-size preference based on dynamic energy budget theory. The predators’ demography and their functional response are based on general eco-physiological principles involving the size of both predator and prey. While our model can account

  7. Coexistence of structured populations with size-based prey selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Species with a large adult-offspring size ratio and a preferred predator–prey mass ratio undergo ontogenetic trophic niche shift(s) throughout life. Trophic interactions between such species vary throughout life, resulting in different species-level interaction motifs depending on the ma......Abstract Species with a large adult-offspring size ratio and a preferred predator–prey mass ratio undergo ontogenetic trophic niche shift(s) throughout life. Trophic interactions between such species vary throughout life, resulting in different species-level interaction motifs depending...... on the maximum adult sizes and population size distributions. We explore the assembly and potential for coexistence of small communities where all species experience ontogenetic trophic niche shifts. The life-history of each species is described by a physiologically structured model and species identity...... there is a large scope for coexistence of two species, the scope for coexistence of three species is limited and we conclude that further trait differentiation is required for coexistence of more species-rich size-structured communities....

  8. Prey size and availability limits maximum size of rainbow trout in a large tailwater: insights from a drift-foraging bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Haye, John W

    2016-01-01

    The cold and clear water conditions present below many large dams create ideal conditions for the development of economically important salmonid fisheries. Many of these tailwater fisheries have experienced declines in the abundance and condition of large trout species, yet the causes of these declines remain uncertain. Here, we develop, assess, and apply a drift-foraging bioenergetics model to identify the factors limiting rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) growth in a large tailwater. We explored the relative importance of temperature, prey quantity, and prey size by constructing scenarios where these variables, both singly and in combination, were altered. Predicted growth matched empirical mass-at-age estimates, particularly for younger ages, demonstrating that the model accurately describes how current temperature and prey conditions interact to determine rainbow trout growth. Modeling scenarios that artificially inflated prey size and abundance demonstrate that rainbow trout growth is limited by the scarcity of large prey items and overall prey availability. For example, shifting 10% of the prey biomass to the 13 mm (large) length class, without increasing overall prey biomass, increased lifetime maximum mass of rainbow trout by 88%. Additionally, warmer temperatures resulted in lower predicted growth at current and lower levels of prey availability; however, growth was similar across all temperatures at higher levels of prey availability. Climate change will likely alter flow and temperature regimes in large rivers with corresponding changes to invertebrate prey resources used by fish. Broader application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to build a mechanistic understanding of how changes to habitat conditions and prey resources affect growth of salmonids will benefit management of tailwater fisheries.

  9. Competing conservation objectives for predators and prey: estimating killer whale prey requirements for Chinook salmon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Williams

    Full Text Available Ecosystem-based management (EBM of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada-US ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of

  10. Foraging mode and prey size spectra of suspension-feeding copepods and other zooplankton

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Prey size spectra of suspension-feeding zooplankton may be predicted from foraging mode and a mechanistic understanding of prey perception and capture. I examine this for suspension-feeding copepods where 2 foraging modes can be distinguished: ambush feeding and active (i.e. cruising and feeding-...... the prediction. I also make qualitative predictions of food size spectra in zooplankton with other prey perception mechanisms that accord with observations....

  11. Dolphin underwater bait-balling behaviors in relation to group and prey ball sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughn-Hirshorn, Robin L; Muzi, Elisa; Richardson, Jessica L; Fox, Gabriella J; Hansen, Lauren N; Salley, Alyce M; Dudzinski, Kathleen M; Würsig, Bernd

    2013-09-01

    We characterized dusky dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obscurus) feeding behaviors recorded on underwater video, and related behaviors to variation in prey ball sizes, dolphin group sizes, and study site (Argentina versus New Zealand, NZ). Herding behaviors most often involved dolphins swimming around the side or under prey balls, but dolphins in Argentina more often swam under prey balls (48% of passes) than did dolphins in NZ (34% of passes). This result may have been due to differences in group sizes between sites, since groups are larger in Argentina. Additionally, in NZ, group size was positively correlated with proportion of passes that occurred under prey balls (pdolphins in Argentina more often swam through prey balls (8% of attempts) than did dolphins in NZ (4% of attempts). This result may have been due to differences in prey ball sizes between sites, since dolphins fed on larger prey balls in Argentina (>74m(2)) than in NZ (maximum 33m(2)). Additionally, in NZ, dolphins were more likely to swim through prey balls to capture fish when they fed on larger prey balls (p=0.025). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling the attack success of planktonic predators: patterns and mechanisms of prey size selectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caparroy, P.; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Visser, Andre

    2000-01-01

    of being captured. By combining the attack success model with previously published hydrodynamic models of predator and prey perception, we examine how predator foraging behaviour and prey perceptive ability affect the size spectra of encountered and captured copepod prey. We examine food size spectra of (i......) a rheotactic cruising predator, (ii) a suspension-feeding hovering copepod and (iii) a larval fish. For rheotactic predators such as carnivorous copepods, a central assumption of the model is that attack is triggered by prey escape reaction, which in turn depends on the deformation rate of the fluid created...

  13. Foraging behaviour and prey size spectra of larval herring Clupea harengus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Peter

    1992-01-01

    size groups of larval herring Clupea harengus L. were studied when preying on 6 size groups of copepods. Larval swimming and attack behaviour changed with prey size and were related to the ratio between prey length and larval length. The effective search rate showed a maximum when prey length was about......, that the available biomass of food as a proportion of the predator biomass will not increase. In order to assess the uniformity of relative prey size spectra of herring larvae and their background in larval foraging behaviour, a set of experimental and field investigations has been carried out. In the experiments, 4...... in the biomass spectra of the environment is important to larval growth and survival....

  14. Feeding behaviour of the nauplii of the marine calanoid copepod Paracartia grani Sars: Functional response, prey size spectrum, and effects of the presence of alternative prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura K Helenius

    Full Text Available Laboratory feeding experiments were conducted to study the functional response and prey size spectrum of the young naupliar stages of the calanoid copepod Paracartia grani Sars. Experiments were conducted on a range of microalgal prey of varying sizes and motility patterns. Significant feeding was found in all prey of a size range of 4.5-19.8 μm, with Holling type III functional responses observed for most prey types. The highest clearance rates occurred when nauplii fed on the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. and the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii (respectively, 0.61 and 0.70 mL ind-1 d-1, suggesting an optimal prey:predator ratio of 0.09. Additional experiments were conducted to examine the effects of the presence of alternative prey (either Heterocapsa sp. or Gymnodinium litoralis on the functional response to the haptophyte Isochrysis galbana. In the bialgal mixtures, clearance and ingestion rates of I. galbana along the range of the functional response were significantly reduced as a result of selectivity towards the larger, alternative prey. Paradoxically, relatively large prey trigger a perception response in the nauplii, but most likely such prey cannot be completely ingested and a certain degree of sloppy feeding may occur. Our results are further evidence of the complex prey-specific feeding interactions that are likely to occur in natural assemblages with several available prey types.

  15. SRKW summer prey - Prey species and stock specific consumption estimates for SRKW in their summer range

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) are listed as a Distinct Population Segment under the Endangered Species Act. Data concerning their prey species and stock...

  16. Differential wolf-pack-size persistence and the role of risk when hunting dangerous prey

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    Barber-Meyer, Shannon M.; Mech, L. David; Newton, Wesley E.; Borg, Bridget

    2016-01-01

    Risk to predators hunting dangerous prey is an emerging area of research and could account for possible persistent differences in gray wolf (Canis lupus) pack sizes. We documented significant differences in long-term wolf-pack-size averages and variation in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Denali National Park and Preserve, Yellowstone National Park, and Yukon, Canada (pwolves’ risk when hunting primary prey, for those packs (N=3) hunting moose (Alces americanus) were significantly larger than those (N=10) hunting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) (F1,8=16.50, p=0.004). Our data support the hypothesis that differential pack-size persistence may be perpetuated by differences in primary prey riskiness to wolves, and we highlight two important extensions of this idea: (1) the potential for wolves to provision and defend injured packmates from other wolves and (2) the importance of less-risky, buffer prey to pack-size persistence and year-to-year variation. Risk to predators hunting dangerous prey is an emerging area of research and could account for possible persistent differences in gray wolf (Canis lupus) pack sizes. We documented significant differences in long-term wolf-pack-size averages and variation in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Denali National Park and Preserve, Yellowstone National Park, and Yukon, Canada (pwolves’ risk when hunting primary prey, for those packs (N=3) hunting moose (Alces americanus) were significantly larger than those (N=10) hunting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) (F1,8=16.50, p=0.004). Our data support the hypothesis that differential pack-size persistence may be perpetuated by differences in primary prey riskiness to wolves, and we highlight two important extensions of this idea: (1) the potential for wolves to provision and defend injured packmates from other wolves and (2) the importance of less-risky, buffer prey to pack-size persistence and year-to-year variation.

  17. Predator size and the suitability of a common prey.

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    Erickson, Kristin S; Morse, D H

    1997-02-01

     Although a predator's mass should influence the suitability of its prey, this subject has received little direct attention. We studied the capture and processing of an abundant syrphid fly Toxomerus marginatus (c. 4 mg) by 0.6- to 40-mg juvenile crab spiders Misumena vatia (Thomisidae) to determine how profitability, relative profitability (profitability/predator mass), overall gain in mass, and relative gain in mass differed with predator mass, and whether foraging changed concurrently. In multi-prey experiments, the smallest successful spiders (0.6-3.0 mg) extracted less mass from flies, and did so more slowly, than large spiders. This gain was proportionately similar to that of 10- to 40-mg spiders with access to many Toxomerus. However, many small spiders failed to capture flies. When we gave spiders only a single Toxomerus, the smallest ones again extracted mass more slowly than the large ones and increased in mass less than the large ones, but increased in mass proportionately more than large ones. Relative gain in mass from a single prey decreased with increasing spider mass. Spiders larger than 10 mg all extracted similar amounts of mass from a single Toxomerus at similar rates, but varied in time spent between captures. Thus, Toxomerus changes with spider mass from a large, hard-to-capture bonanza to a small, easy-to-capture item of low per capita value. However, Toxomerus is common enough that large spiders can capture it en masse, thereby compensating for its decline in per capita value.

  18. Are owl pellets good estimators of prey abundance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Analia Andrade

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Some ecologists have been skeptics about the use of owl pellets to estimate small mammal’s fauna. This is due to the assumptions required by this method: (a that owls hunt at random, and (b that pellets represent a random sample from the environment. We performed statistical analysis to test these assumptions and to assess the effectiveness of Barn owl pellets as a useful estimator of field abundances of its preys. We used samples collected in the arid Extra-Andean Patagonia along an altitudinal environmental gradient from lower Monte ecoregion to upper Patagonian steppe ecoregion, with a mid-elevation ecotone. To test if owls hunt at random, we estimated expected pellet frequency by creating a distribution of random pellets, which we compared with data using a simulated chi-square. To test if pellets represent a random sample from the environment, differences between ecoregions were evaluated by PERMANOVAs with Bray–Curtis dissimilarities. We did not find evidence that owls foraged non-randomly. Therefore, we can assume that the proportions of the small mammal’s species in the diet are representative of the proportions of the species in their communities. Only Monte is different from other ecoregions. The ecotone samples are grouped with those of Patagonian steppes. There are no real differences between localities in the small mammal’s abundances in each of these ecoregions and/or Barn owl pellets cannot detect patterns at a smaller spatial scale. Therefore, we have no evidence to invalidate the use of owl pellets at an ecoregional scale.

  19. Estimation of feeding patterns for piscivorous fish using individual prey data from stomach contents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Temming, Axel

    2011-01-01

    The problem of estimating temporal feeding patterns using stomach data is considered, where the time of ingestion for each prey item can be predicted through a gastric evacuation model. The arrival of prey is modelled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with known periodic intensity. A maximum...

  20. Mother-Offspring Relations: Prey Quality and Maternal Size Affect Egg Size of an Acariphagous Lady Beetle in Culture

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    Eric W. Riddick

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated mother-offspring relations in a lady beetle Stethorus punctillum Weise that utilizes spider mites as prey. Our objectives were to determine if (1 prey quality affects egg size, (2 maternal size correlates with egg size, and (3 egg size affects hatching success. We fed predators spider mites Tetranychus urticae Koch from lima bean Phaseolus lunatus L. foliage in the laboratory. Mothers of unknown body size offered high rather than low quality spider mites since birth produced larger eggs. Mothers of known body size offered only high quality spider mites, produced eggs of variable size, but mean egg size correlated positively with hind femur length. Mothers laid their eggs singly, rather than in batches, and eggs were large relative to femur size. Egg size did not affect hatch success; mean hatch rate exceeded 95% regardless of egg size. In conclusion, the quality of prey consumed by S. punctillum mothers while in the larval stage can affect their size as adults and, consequently, the size of their eggs. The behavior of laying eggs singly, the positive relationship between maternal size and mean egg size, and the high rate of egg hatch suggest that S. punctillum mothers invest heavily in offspring.

  1. Examining predator–prey body size, trophic level and body mass across marine and terrestrial mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Marlee A.; Rogers, Tracey L.

    2014-01-01

    Predator–prey relationships and trophic levels are indicators of community structure, and are important for monitoring ecosystem changes. Mammals colonized the marine environment on seven separate occasions, which resulted in differences in species' physiology, morphology and behaviour. It is likely that these changes have had a major effect upon predator–prey relationships and trophic position; however, the effect of environment is yet to be clarified. We compiled a dataset, based on the literature, to explore the relationship between body mass, trophic level and predator–prey ratio across terrestrial (n = 51) and marine (n = 56) mammals. We did not find the expected positive relationship between trophic level and body mass, but we did find that marine carnivores sit 1.3 trophic levels higher than terrestrial carnivores. Also, marine mammals are largely carnivorous and have significantly larger predator–prey ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We propose that primary productivity, and its availability, is important for mammalian trophic structure and body size. Also, energy flow and community structure in the marine environment are influenced by differences in energy efficiency and increased food web stability. Enhancing our knowledge of feeding ecology in mammals has the potential to provide insights into the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial communities. PMID:25377460

  2. Examining predator-prey body size, trophic level and body mass across marine and terrestrial mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Marlee A; Rogers, Tracey L

    2014-12-22

    Predator-prey relationships and trophic levels are indicators of community structure, and are important for monitoring ecosystem changes. Mammals colonized the marine environment on seven separate occasions, which resulted in differences in species' physiology, morphology and behaviour. It is likely that these changes have had a major effect upon predator-prey relationships and trophic position; however, the effect of environment is yet to be clarified. We compiled a dataset, based on the literature, to explore the relationship between body mass, trophic level and predator-prey ratio across terrestrial (n = 51) and marine (n = 56) mammals. We did not find the expected positive relationship between trophic level and body mass, but we did find that marine carnivores sit 1.3 trophic levels higher than terrestrial carnivores. Also, marine mammals are largely carnivorous and have significantly larger predator-prey ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We propose that primary productivity, and its availability, is important for mammalian trophic structure and body size. Also, energy flow and community structure in the marine environment are influenced by differences in energy efficiency and increased food web stability. Enhancing our knowledge of feeding ecology in mammals has the potential to provide insights into the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial communities. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Prey availability affects territory size, but not territorial display behavior, in green anole lizards

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    Stehle, Chelsea M.; Battles, Andrew C.; Sparks, Michelle N.; Johnson, Michele A.

    2017-10-01

    The availability of food resources can affect the size and shape of territories, as well as the behaviors used to defend territories, in a variety of animal taxa. However, individuals within a population may respond differently to variation in food availability if the benefits of territoriality vary among those individuals. For example, benefits to territoriality may differ for animals of differing sizes, because larger individuals may require greater territory size to acquire required resources, or territorial behavior may differ between the sexes if males and females defend different resources in their territories. In this study, we tested whether arthropod abundance and biomass were associated with natural variation in territory size and defense in insectivorous green anole lizards, Anolis carolinensis. Our results showed that both male and female lizards had smaller territories in a habitat with greater prey biomass than lizards in habitats with less available prey, but the rates of aggressive behaviors used to defend territories did not differ among these habitats. Further, we did not find a relationship between body size and territory size, and the sexes did not differ in their relationships between food availability and territory size or behavioral defense. Together, these results suggest that differences in food availability influenced male and female territorial strategies similarly, and that territory size may be more strongly associated with variation in food resources than social display behavior. Thus, anole investment in the behavioral defense of a territory may not vary with territory quality.

  4. The Allometry of Prey Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkat, Gregor; Rall, Björn Christian; Vucic-Pestic, Olivera; Brose, Ulrich

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of weak and strong non-linear feeding interactions (i.e., functional responses) across the links of complex food webs is critically important for their stability. While empirical advances have unravelled constraints on single-prey functional responses, their validity in the context of complex food webs where most predators have multiple prey remain uncertain. In this study, we present conceptual evidence for the invalidity of strictly density-dependent consumption as the null model in multi-prey experiments. Instead, we employ two-prey functional responses parameterised with allometric scaling relationships of the functional response parameters that were derived from a previous single-prey functional response study as novel null models. Our experiments included predators of different sizes from two taxonomical groups (wolf spiders and ground beetles) simultaneously preying on one small and one large prey species. We define compliance with the null model predictions (based on two independent single-prey functional responses) as passive preferences or passive switching, and deviations from the null model as active preferences or active switching. Our results indicate active and passive preferences for the larger prey by predators that are at least twice the size of the larger prey. Moreover, our approach revealed that active preferences increased significantly with the predator-prey body-mass ratio. Together with prior allometric scaling relationships of functional response parameters, this preference allometry may allow estimating the distribution of functional response parameters across the myriads of interactions in natural ecosystems. PMID:21998724

  5. The allometry of prey preferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Kalinkat

    Full Text Available The distribution of weak and strong non-linear feeding interactions (i.e., functional responses across the links of complex food webs is critically important for their stability. While empirical advances have unravelled constraints on single-prey functional responses, their validity in the context of complex food webs where most predators have multiple prey remain uncertain. In this study, we present conceptual evidence for the invalidity of strictly density-dependent consumption as the null model in multi-prey experiments. Instead, we employ two-prey functional responses parameterised with allometric scaling relationships of the functional response parameters that were derived from a previous single-prey functional response study as novel null models. Our experiments included predators of different sizes from two taxonomical groups (wolf spiders and ground beetles simultaneously preying on one small and one large prey species. We define compliance with the null model predictions (based on two independent single-prey functional responses as passive preferences or passive switching, and deviations from the null model as active preferences or active switching. Our results indicate active and passive preferences for the larger prey by predators that are at least twice the size of the larger prey. Moreover, our approach revealed that active preferences increased significantly with the predator-prey body-mass ratio. Together with prior allometric scaling relationships of functional response parameters, this preference allometry may allow estimating the distribution of functional response parameters across the myriads of interactions in natural ecosystems.

  6. The effects of prey size on diet differentiation of seven passerine species at two spring stopover sites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchetti, C.M.; Locatelli, D.P.; Van Noordwijk, A.J.; Baldaccini, N.E.

    1998-01-01

    Prey size was evaluated for seven passerine trans-Saharan migrant species at two spring stopover sites in Sardinia, Italy. The species considered were Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata, Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, Garden Warbler Sylvia borin, Whitethroat

  7. Effects of prey size and foraging mode on the ontogenetic change in feeding niche ofColostethus stepheni (Anura: Dendrobatidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Albertina P; Moreira, Gloria

    1993-03-01

    The feeding niche ofColostethus stepheni changes during ontogeny. Small individuals eat small arthropods, principally mites and collembolans, and larger frogs eat bigger prey of other types. The shift in prey types is not a passive effect of selection for bigger prey. There is a strong relationship between electivity for prey types and frog size, independent of electivity for prey size. Four indices of general activity during foraging (number of movements, velocity, total area utilized and time spent moving), which are associated with electivity for prey types in adult frogs and lizards, did not predict the ontogenetic change in the diet ofC. stepheni. Apparently, the behavioral changes that cause the ontogenetic change inC. stepheni are more subtle than shifts in general activity during foraging. Studies of niche partitioning in communities of anurans that do not take into consideration ontogenetic changes in diet and seasonal changes in the size structures of populations present a partial and possibly erroneous picture of the potential interactions among species.

  8. Predatory functional morphology in raptors: interdigital variation in talon size is related to prey restraint and immobilisation technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Denver W; Freedman, Elizabeth A; Scannella, John B

    2009-11-25

    Despite the ubiquity of raptors in terrestrial ecosystems, many aspects of their predatory behaviour remain poorly understood. Surprisingly little is known about the morphology of raptor talons and how they are employed during feeding behaviour. Talon size variation among digits can be used to distinguish families of raptors and is related to different techniques of prey restraint and immobilisation. The hypertrophied talons on digits (D) I and II in Accipitridae have evolved primarily to restrain large struggling prey while they are immobilised by dismemberment. Falconidae have only modest talons on each digit and only slightly enlarged D-I and II. For immobilisation, Falconini rely more strongly on strike impact and breaking the necks of their prey, having evolved a 'tooth' on the beak to aid in doing so. Pandionidae have enlarged, highly recurved talons on each digit, an adaptation for piscivory, convergently seen to a lesser extent in fishing eagles. Strigiformes bear enlarged talons with comparatively low curvature on each digit, part of a suite of adaptations to increase constriction efficiency by maximising grip strength, indicative of specialisation on small prey. Restraint and immobilisation strategy change as prey increase in size. Small prey are restrained by containment within the foot and immobilised by constriction and beak attacks. Large prey are restrained by pinning under the bodyweight of the raptor, maintaining grip with the talons, and immobilised by dismemberment (Accipitridae), or severing the spinal cord (Falconini). Within all raptors, physical attributes of the feet trade off against each other to attain great strength, but it is the variable means by which this is achieved that distinguishes them ecologically. Our findings show that interdigital talon morphology varies consistently among raptor families, and that this is directly correlative with variation in their typical prey capture and restraint strategy.

  9. Size Estimates in Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Di Cristo, Michele

    2014-01-06

    Detection of inclusions or obstacles inside a body by boundary measurements is an inverse problems very useful in practical applications. When only finite numbers of measurements are available, we try to detect some information on the embedded object such as its size. In this talk we review some recent results on several inverse problems. The idea is to provide constructive upper and lower estimates of the area/volume of the unknown defect in terms of a quantity related to the work that can be expressed with the available boundary data.

  10. Laboratory investigations of the effects of predator sex and size on prey selection by the Asian crab, Hemigrapsus sanguineus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousseau, D J.; Filipowicz, A; Baglivo, J A.

    2001-07-30

    Laboratory studies have shown that the nonindigenous Asian shore crab, Hemigrapsus sanguineus, readily consumes three species of commercial bivalves: blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, soft-shell clams, Mya arenaria, and oysters, Crassostrea virginica. Although crabs can eat bivalves of a wide size range, they preferred the smaller prey (Hemigrapsus that occur in the wild, their effectiveness as predators of juvenile bivalves and their large appetites suggest an important role for these predators in restructuring the prey communities in habitats into which they have been introduced.

  11. Influence of primary prey on home-range size and habitat-use patterns of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cynthia J. Zabel; Kevin S. McKelvey; James P. Ward

    1995-01-01

    Correlations between the home-range size of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and proportion of their range in old-growth forest have been reported, but there are few data on the relationship between their home-range size and prey. The primary prey of spotted owls are wood rats and northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus). Wood...

  12. A method for in situ estimation of prey selectivity and predation rate in large plankton, exemplified with the jellyfish Aurelia aurita (L.)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansson, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    , predation rate can be calculated as increase in gut content over time. Clearance rates for different prey can be calculated from predation rates and prey concentrations in the water, allowing accurate estimates of prey selectivity. Thus, the problem of unknown feeding history and feeding environment, which...... of a specific individual plankton predator in situ.After prey has been evacuated from the gut of an individual predator, the predator is incubated in situ, and observed by SCUBA-divers who recapture the individual after a defined time. Given that this incubation time is shorter than prey digestion time...... among individual jellyfish and among the various oral arms and gastric pouches within individuals. Clearance rates varied strongly with prey type. The medusae selected large crustacean prey (cladocerans and copepods/copepodites) over echinoderm larvae and copepod nauplii. Prey distribution within...

  13. Turbulence-enhanced prey encounter rates in larval fish : Effects of spatial scale, larval behaviour and size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; MacKenzie, Brian

    1995-01-01

    Turbulent water motion has several effects on the feeding ecology of larval fish and other planktivorous predators. In this paper, we consider the appropriate spatial scales for estimating relative velocities between larval fish predators and their prey, and the effect that different choices of s...... in the range in which turbulent intensity has an overall positive effect on larval fish ingestion rate probability. However, experimental data to test the model predictions are lacking. We suggest that the model inputs require further empirical study....

  14. Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic techniques. ... of managing the size of software development projects by Purchasers (Clients) and Vendors (Development ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  15. Prey interception drives web invasion and spider size determines successful web takeover in nocturnal orb-web spiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Wenjin; Liu, Shengjie; Yang, Xiaodong; Li, Daiqin; Lei, Chaoliang

    2015-09-24

    A striking feature of web-building spiders is the use of silk to make webs, mainly for prey capture. However, building a web is energetically expensive and increases the risk of predation. To reduce such costs and still have access to abundant prey, some web-building spiders have evolved web invasion behaviour. In general, no consistent patterns of web invasion have emerged and the factors determining web invasion remain largely unexplored. Here we report web invasion among conspecifics in seven nocturnal species of orb-web spiders, and examined the factors determining the probability of webs that could be invaded and taken over by conspecifics. About 36% of webs were invaded by conspecifics, and 25% of invaded webs were taken over by the invaders. A web that was built higher and intercepted more prey was more likely to be invaded. Once a web was invaded, the smaller the size of the resident spider, the more likely its web would be taken over by the invader. This study suggests that web invasion, as a possible way of reducing costs, may be widespread in nocturnal orb-web spiders. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  16. Prey interception drives web invasion and spider size determines successful web takeover in nocturnal orb-web spiders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjin Gan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A striking feature of web-building spiders is the use of silk to make webs, mainly for prey capture. However, building a web is energetically expensive and increases the risk of predation. To reduce such costs and still have access to abundant prey, some web-building spiders have evolved web invasion behaviour. In general, no consistent patterns of web invasion have emerged and the factors determining web invasion remain largely unexplored. Here we report web invasion among conspecifics in seven nocturnal species of orb-web spiders, and examined the factors determining the probability of webs that could be invaded and taken over by conspecifics. About 36% of webs were invaded by conspecifics, and 25% of invaded webs were taken over by the invaders. A web that was built higher and intercepted more prey was more likely to be invaded. Once a web was invaded, the smaller the size of the resident spider, the more likely its web would be taken over by the invader. This study suggests that web invasion, as a possible way of reducing costs, may be widespread in nocturnal orb-web spiders.

  17. Influence of prey dispersion on territory and group size of African lions: a test of the resource dispersion hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeix, Marion; Loveridge, Andrew J; MacDonald, David W

    2012-11-01

    Empirical tests of the resource dispersion hypothesis (RDH), a theory to explain group living based on resource heterogeneity, have been complicated by the fact that resource patch dispersion and richness have proved difficult to define and measure in natural systems. Here, we studied the ecology of African lions Panthera leo in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, where waterholes are prey hotspots, and where dispersion of water sources and abundance of prey at these water sources are quantifiable. We combined a 10-year data set from GPS-collared lions for which information of group composition was available concurrently with data for herbivore abundance at waterholes. The distance between two neighboring waterholes was a strong determinant of lion home range size, which provides strong support for the RDH prediction that territory size increases as resource patches are more dispersed in the landscape. The mean number of herbivore herds using a waterhole, a good proxy of patch richness, determined the maximum lion group biomass an area can support. This finding suggests that patch richness sets a maximum ceiling on lion group size. This study demonstrates that landscape ecology is a major driver of ranging behavior and suggests that aspects of resource dispersion limit group sizes.

  18. Estimating Search Engine Index Size Variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van den Bosch, Antal; Bogers, Toine; De Kunder, Maurice

    2016-01-01

    One of the determining factors of the quality of Web search engines is the size of their index. In addition to its influence on search result quality, the size of the indexed Web can also tell us something about which parts of the WWW are directly accessible to the everyday user. We propose a novel...... method of estimating the size of a Web search engine’s index by extrapolating from document frequencies of words observed in a large static corpus of Web pages. In addition, we provide a unique longitudinal perspective on the size of Google and Bing’s indices over a nine-year period, from March 2006...... until January 2015. We find that index size estimates of these two search engines tend to vary dramatically over time, with Google generally possessing a larger index than Bing. This result raises doubts about the reliability of previous one-off estimates of the size of the indexed Web. We find...

  19. Comparing prey composition and prey size delivered to nestlings by great tits, Parus major, and blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, in a Mediterranean sclerophyllous mixed forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navalpotro, H.; Pagani-Nuñez, E.; Hernandez-Gomez, S.; Senar, J.C.

    2016-01-01

    Resource partitioning is a central issue in ecology because it can establish to which point similar species can coexist in the same habitat. Great tits and blue tits have been classical model species in studies of trophic competence. However, most studies on the topic have been conducted at localities where caterpillars are by far the most relevant prey brought to the nestlings. In Mediterranean mixed forests, nevertheless, the abundance of caterpillars is relatively low and it is spiders that play a key role in the diet of great tits, at least for nestlings. The aim of this paper was to study nest food provisioning to establish the degree of diet overlap of these two tit species in a Mediterranean forest. Our results showed that blue tit feeding rates were higher than those of great tits, probably to compensate for the smaller prey delivered to nestlings by blue tits. Blue tits brought more spiders than great tits, while grey tits brought larger prey and more caterpillars. This may be because larger great tits can prey upon larger prey items than blue tits. As a main result, this study supports the view of resource partitioning by great and blue tits in sclerophyllous Mediterranean forest ecosystem. (Author)

  20. Comparing prey composition and prey size delivered to nestlings by great tits, Parus major, and blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, in a Mediterranean sclerophyllous mixed forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navalpotro, H.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Resource partitioning is a central issue in ecology because it can establish to which point similar species can coexist in the same habitat. Great tits and blue tits have been classical model species in studies of trophic competence. However, most studies on the topic have been conducted at localities where caterpillars are by far the most relevant prey brought to the nestlings. In Mediterranean mixed forests, nevertheless, the abundance of caterpillars is relatively low and it is spiders that play a key role in the diet of great tits, at least for nestlings. The aim of this paper was to study nest food provisioning to establish the degree of diet overlap of these two tit species in a Mediterranean forest. Our results showed that blue tit feeding rates were higher than those of great tits, probably to compensate for the smaller prey delivered to nestlings by blue tits. Blue tits brought more spiders than great tits, while grey tits brought larger prey and more caterpillars. This may be because larger great tits can prey upon larger prey items than blue tits. As a main result, this study supports the view of resource partitioning by great and blue tits in sclerophyllous Mediterranean forest ecosystem.

  1. Comparing prey composition and prey size delivered to nestlings by great tits, Parus major, and blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, in a Mediterranean sclerophyllous mixed forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Navalpotro, H.; Pagani-Nuñez, E.; Hernandez-Gomez, S.; Senar, J.C.

    2016-07-01

    Resource partitioning is a central issue in ecology because it can establish to which point similar species can coexist in the same habitat. Great tits and blue tits have been classical model species in studies of trophic competence. However, most studies on the topic have been conducted at localities where caterpillars are by far the most relevant prey brought to the nestlings. In Mediterranean mixed forests, nevertheless, the abundance of caterpillars is relatively low and it is spiders that play a key role in the diet of great tits, at least for nestlings. The aim of this paper was to study nest food provisioning to establish the degree of diet overlap of these two tit species in a Mediterranean forest. Our results showed that blue tit feeding rates were higher than those of great tits, probably to compensate for the smaller prey delivered to nestlings by blue tits. Blue tits brought more spiders than great tits, while grey tits brought larger prey and more caterpillars. This may be because larger great tits can prey upon larger prey items than blue tits. As a main result, this study supports the view of resource partitioning by great and blue tits in sclerophyllous Mediterranean forest ecosystem. (Author)

  2. Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass, Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabitha C Y Hui

    Full Text Available A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s.

  3. Estimating Sample Size for Usability Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Cazañas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available One strategy used to assure that an interface meets user requirements is to conduct usability testing. When conducting such testing one of the unknowns is sample size. Since extensive testing is costly, minimizing the number of participants can contribute greatly to successful resource management of a project. Even though a significant number of models have been proposed to estimate sample size in usability testing, there is still not consensus on the optimal size. Several studies claim that 3 to 5 users suffice to uncover 80% of problems in a software interface. However, many other studies challenge this assertion. This study analyzed data collected from the user testing of a web application to verify the rule of thumb, commonly known as the “magic number 5”. The outcomes of the analysis showed that the 5-user rule significantly underestimates the required sample size to achieve reasonable levels of problem detection.

  4. Impaired hand size estimation in CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltz, Elena; Seifert, Frank; Lanz, Stefan; Müller, Rüdiger; Maihöfner, Christian

    2011-10-01

    A triad of clinical symptoms, ie, autonomic, motor and sensory dysfunctions, characterizes complex regional pain syndromes (CRPS). Sensory dysfunction comprises sensory loss or spontaneous and stimulus-evoked pain. Furthermore, a disturbance in the body schema may occur. In the present study, patients with CRPS of the upper extremity and healthy controls estimated their hand sizes on the basis of expanded or compressed schematic drawings of hands. In patients with CRPS we found an impairment in accurate hand size estimation; patients estimated their own CRPS-affected hand to be larger than it actually was when measured objectively. Moreover, overestimation correlated significantly with disease duration, neglect score, and increase of two-point-discrimination-thresholds (TPDT) compared to the unaffected hand and to control subjects' estimations. In line with previous functional imaging studies in CRPS patients demonstrating changes in central somatotopic maps, we suggest an involvement of the central nervous system in this disruption of the body schema. Potential cortical areas may be the primary somatosensory and posterior parietal cortices, which have been proposed to play a critical role in integrating visuospatial information. CRPS patients perceive their affected hand to be bigger than it is. The magnitude of this overestimation correlates with disease duration, decreased tactile thresholds, and neglect-score. Suggesting a disrupted body schema as the source of this impairment, our findings corroborate the current assumption of a CNS involvement in CRPS. Copyright © 2011 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimation of myocardial infarct size by vectocardiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takimiya, Akihiko

    1987-01-01

    Correlations between the vectorcardiogram (VCG) indice and infarct size (% defect) obtained from myocardial emission computed tomography with thallium-201 were studied in 45 patients with old infero-posterior myocardial infarction. The patients were divided into two groups, one consisting of eight patients who showed abnormal superior deviation of the QRS loop in a counterclockwise rotation beyond 30 msec in the frontal plane of VCG (referred to hereafter as CCW group), and another a non-CCW group consisting of 37 patients. The results obtained were as follows. (1) In the non-CCW group, there were significant negative correlations between the elevation and the Y-axial component of each instantaneous vector of the QRS loop at 30 msec, 35 msec, 40 msec, 45 msec, and between the Y-axial component of 50 msec instantaneous vector and the % defect. The correlation for both the elevation and the Y-axial component was closest at 40 msec, and there was most significantly close correlation between the elevation of 40 msec instantaneous vector and the % defect. (2) In the non-CCW group, there was also a significant correlation between the elevation of QRS area vector and the % defect. (3) In the CCW group, the infarct size could be estimated by the elevation of 30 msec instantaneous vector. An association with left anterior fascicular block was also indicated in the CCW group. (4) In infero-posterior myocardial infarction, the infarct size can be estimated using these VCG indices. (author)

  6. Genome size estimation: a new methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Borrego, Josué; Gallardo-Escárate, Crisitian; Kober, Vitaly; López-Bonilla, Oscar

    2007-03-01

    Recently, within the cytogenetic analysis, the evolutionary relations implied in the content of nuclear DNA in plants and animals have received a great attention. The first detailed measurements of the nuclear DNA content were made in the early 40's, several years before Watson and Crick proposed the molecular structure of the DNA. In the following years Hewson Swift developed the concept of "C-value" in reference to the haploid phase of DNA in plants. Later Mirsky and Ris carried out the first systematic study of genomic size in animals, including representatives of the five super classes of vertebrates as well as of some invertebrates. From these preliminary results it became evident that the DNA content varies enormously between the species and that this variation does not bear relation to the intuitive notion from the complexity of the organism. Later, this observation was reaffirmed in the following years as the studies increased on genomic size, thus denominating to this characteristic of the organisms like the "Paradox of the C-value". Few years later along with the no-codification discovery of DNA the paradox was solved, nevertheless, numerous questions remain until nowadays unfinished, taking to denominate this type of studies like the "C-value enigma". In this study, we reported a new method for genome size estimation by quantification of fluorescence fading. We measured the fluorescence intensity each 1600 milliseconds in DAPI-stained nuclei. The estimation of the area under the graph (integral fading) during fading period was related with the genome size.

  7. Preliminarily study on the maximum handling size, prey size and species selectivity of growth hormone transgenic and non-transgenic common carp Cyprinus carpio when foraging on gastropods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Tingbing; Zhang, Lihong; Zhang, Tanglin; Wang, Yaping; Hu, Wei; Olsen, Rolf Eric; Zhu, Zuoyan

    2017-10-01

    The present study preliminarily examined the differences in maximum handling size, prey size and species selectivity of growth hormone transgenic and non-transgenic common carp Cyprinus carpio when foraging on four gastropods species (Bellamya aeruginosa, Radix auricularia, Parafossarulus sinensis and Alocinma longicornis) under laboratory conditions. In the maximum handling size trial, five fish from each age group (1-year-old and 2-year-old) and each genotype (transgenic and non-transgenic) of common carp were individually allowed to feed on B. aeruginosa with wide shell height range. The results showed that maximum handling size increased linearly with fish length, and there was no significant difference in maximum handling size between the two genotypes. In the size selection trial, three pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on three size groups of B. aeruginosa. The results show that the two genotypes of C. carpio favored the small-sized group over the large-sized group. In the species selection trial, three pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on thin-shelled B. aeruginosa and thick-shelled R. auricularia, and five pairs of 2-year-old transgenic and non-transgenic carp were individually allowed to feed on two gastropods species (P. sinensis and A. longicornis) with similar size and shell strength. The results showed that both genotypes preferred thin-shelled Radix auricularia rather than thick-shelled B. aeruginosa, but there were no significant difference in selectivity between the two genotypes when fed on P. sinensis and A. longicornis. The present study indicates that transgenic and non-transgenic C. carpio show similar selectivity of predation on the size- and species-limited gastropods. While this information may be useful for assessing the environmental risk of transgenic carp, it does not necessarily demonstrate that transgenic common carp might

  8. Predation risk affects growth and reproduction of an invasive snail and its lethal effect depends on prey size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jing; Martín, Pablo R.; Zhang, Chunxia

    2017-01-01

    The behavior of invasive species under predation risk has been studied extensively, but their growth and reproductive responses have rarely been investigated. We conducted experiments with juveniles and adults of the invasive freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata, and we observed changes in growth and reproduction in response to predation risk from a caged predator (Trachemys scripta elegans). P. canaliculata produced eggs earlier in the presence of predators and injured conspecifics compared with the control group (no risk), although the total number of egg masses laid by per female was exceeded by that of the controls after 15 days. Egg hatching success noticeably decreased under predation risk, and the incubation period was significantly prolonged; however, the oviposition height of the snails was not affected. A lethal effect of predation risk was detected in juvenile snails but not in adults. The growth of juvenile P. canaliculata was inhibited under predation risk, probably due to a reduction in food intake. Adult females exhibited a greater reduction in growth under predation risk than males, which likely resulted in part from the high reproductive investment of females in egg laying. These results indicate that P. canaliculata snails under predation risk face a trade-off between predator avoidance and growth and reproduction, where the lethal effect of predation risk is linked to the size of the prey. PMID:29136660

  9. Predation risk affects growth and reproduction of an invasive snail and its lethal effect depends on prey size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Guo

    Full Text Available The behavior of invasive species under predation risk has been studied extensively, but their growth and reproductive responses have rarely been investigated. We conducted experiments with juveniles and adults of the invasive freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata, and we observed changes in growth and reproduction in response to predation risk from a caged predator (Trachemys scripta elegans. P. canaliculata produced eggs earlier in the presence of predators and injured conspecifics compared with the control group (no risk, although the total number of egg masses laid by per female was exceeded by that of the controls after 15 days. Egg hatching success noticeably decreased under predation risk, and the incubation period was significantly prolonged; however, the oviposition height of the snails was not affected. A lethal effect of predation risk was detected in juvenile snails but not in adults. The growth of juvenile P. canaliculata was inhibited under predation risk, probably due to a reduction in food intake. Adult females exhibited a greater reduction in growth under predation risk than males, which likely resulted in part from the high reproductive investment of females in egg laying. These results indicate that P. canaliculata snails under predation risk face a trade-off between predator avoidance and growth and reproduction, where the lethal effect of predation risk is linked to the size of the prey.

  10. Zooplankton predators and prey: body size and stable isotope to investigate the pelagic food web in a deep lake (Lake Iseo, Northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Leoni

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal changes in trophic position and food sources of deep subalpine lake (Lake Iseo, Northern Italy zooplankton taxa were investigated during the year 2011. Furthermore, it's combined carbon and nitrogen Stable Isotope Analysis (SIA with size-specific analyses of both, the major predatory cladoceran (Leptodora kindtii, Focke and two potential preys (Daphnia longispina complex and Eubosmina longicornis. SIA studies have been extremely useful to track the energy flow through complex trophic network, however, if it is applied to analyze relation between two/few species may lead to misleading interpretations. In fact, integrating size-specificity allowed for understanding why L. kindtii nitrogen isotopic fingerprint fully overlapped with Daphnia, in spring. By investigating changes in L. kindtii's feeding basket, we found that in spring, L. kindtii mainly relied upon E. longicornis as prey, Daphnia being of too large body size for being captured by L. kindtii. Among preys encountered directly in front by a free-swimming Leptodora, only those able to fit into basket opening can be captured. As basket diameter increases with animal body length, size selection of prey depends on L. kindtii body length. As in other deep, subalpine lakes, E. longicornis was less 15N-enriched than Daphnia, most likely because of exploiting nitrogen fixing, cyanobacteria colonies, commonly detected in Lake Iseo with the onset of thermal stratification. Cyclopoid adults were at the top of zooplankton food chain and they could potentially be feeding on Daphnia. They, however, likely fed in a different habitat (>20 m deep water, as suggested by a rather than negligible carbon fractionation. The results overall suggest that size-specificity is crucial for addressing space and time changes in trophic links between organisms composing the two hierarchical levels within open water zooplankton community. 

  11. Laboratory estimation of net trophic transfer efficiencies of PCB congeners to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from its prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; David, Solomon R.

    2014-01-01

    A technique for laboratory estimation of net trophic transfer efficiency (γ) of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners to piscivorous fish from their prey is described herein. During a 135-day laboratory experiment, we fed bloater (Coregonus hoyi) that had been caught in Lake Michigan to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) kept in eight laboratory tanks. Bloater is a natural prey for lake trout. In four of the tanks, a relatively high flow rate was used to ensure relatively high activity by the lake trout, whereas a low flow rate was used in the other four tanks, allowing for low lake trout activity. On a tank-by-tank basis, the amount of food eaten by the lake trout on each day of the experiment was recorded. Each lake trout was weighed at the start and end of the experiment. Four to nine lake trout from each of the eight tanks were sacrificed at the start of the experiment, and all 10 lake trout remaining in each of the tanks were euthanized at the end of the experiment. We determined concentrations of 75 PCB congeners in the lake trout at the start of the experiment, in the lake trout at the end of the experiment, and in bloaters fed to the lake trout during the experiment. Based on these measurements, γ was calculated for each of 75 PCB congeners in each of the eight tanks. Mean γ was calculated for each of the 75 PCB congeners for both active and inactive lake trout. Because the experiment was replicated in eight tanks, the standard error about mean γ could be estimated. Results from this type of experiment are useful in risk assessment models to predict future risk to humans and wildlife eating contaminated fish under various scenarios of environmental contamination.

  12. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Photometric estimation of defect size in radiation direction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuev, V.M.

    1993-01-01

    Factors, affecting accuracy of photometric estimation of defect size in radiation transmission direction, are analyzed. Experimentally obtained dependences of contrast of defect image on its size in radiation transmission direction are presented. Practical recommendations on improving accuracy of photometric estimation of defect size in radiation transmission direction, are developed

  14. Estimation of particle size distribution of nanoparticles from electrical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2018-02-02

    Feb 2, 2018 ... An indirect method of estimation of size distribution of nanoparticles in a nanocomposite is ... The present approach exploits DC electrical current–voltage ... the sizes of nanoparticles (NPs) by electrical characterization.

  15. Better Size Estimation for Sparse Matrix Products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amossen, Rasmus Resen; Campagna, Andrea; Pagh, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of doing fast and reliable estimation of the number of non-zero entries in a sparse Boolean matrix product. Let n denote the total number of non-zero entries in the input matrices. We show how to compute a 1 ± ε approximation (with small probability of error) in expected t...

  16. Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 4).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-01-01

    Sample size estimation is necessary for any experimental or survey research. An appropriate estimation of sample size based on known information and statistical knowledge is of great significance. This article introduces methods of sample size estimation of difference test for data with the design of one factor with two levels, including sample size estimation formulas and realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software for quantitative data and qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels. In addition, this article presents examples for analysis, which will play a leading role for researchers to implement the repetition principle during the research design phase.

  17. Prey selection by Bengal Tiger Panthera tigris tigris (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae of Chitwan National Park, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saneer Lamichhane

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Prey selection by tiger in Chitwan National Park, Nepal was studied from 77 tiger scats that contained the remains of principal prey species.  The scats were collected from January to March 2010.  Government reports on herbivore population in Chitwan provided the base data on density of principal prey species.  In order to understand prey selectivity, the observed proportion of prey species in the scats were compared with the expected proportion derived from density estimates.  The observed scat frequency of Sambar, Hog Deer and Wild Boar was found to be greater than the estimated frequency, and the reverse was true for Chital and Muntjac.  The average weight of the principal prey species killed was 84 kg. According to our results, Chital and Sambar constituted the bulk (82.07%, and Hog Deer, Wild Boar, and Muntjac constituted 17.93% of the tiger diet.  Sambar contributed the largest bulk (43.75% of prey composition, but Chital constituted the relatively most killed (50.36% prey species.  The present study makes a contribution to an understanding of the status of prey composition in tiger scat in Chitwan during the year 2010.  The study also highlights that both large and medium sized prey are important for the conservation of tiger in Chitwan National Park. 

  18. Source term estimation for small sized HTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moormann, R.

    1992-08-01

    Accidents which have to be considered are core heat-up, reactivity transients, water of air ingress and primary circuit depressurization. The main effort of this paper belongs to water/air ingress and depressurization, which requires consideration of fission product plateout under normal operation conditions; for the latter it is clearly shown, that absorption (penetration) mechanisms are much less important than assumed sometimes in the past. Source term estimation procedures for core heat-up events are shortly reviewed; reactivity transients are apparently covered by them. Besides a general literature survey including identification of areas with insufficient knowledge this paper contains some estimations on the thermomechanical behaviour of fission products in water in air ingress accidents. Typical source term examples are also presented. In an appendix, evaluations of the AVR experiments VAMPYR-I and -II with respect to plateout and fission product filter efficiency are outlined and used for a validation step of the new plateout code SPATRA. (orig.)

  19. Effects of insecticide exposure on movement and population size estimates of predatory ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasifka, Jarrad R; Lopez, Miriam D; Hellmich, Richard L; Prasifka, Patricia L

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of arthropod population size may paradoxically increase following insecticide applications. Research with ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) suggests that such unusual results reflect increased arthropod movement and capture in traps rather than real changes in population size. However, it is unclear whether direct (hyperactivity) or indirect (prey-mediated) mechanisms produce increased movement. Video tracking of Scarites quadriceps Chaudior indicated that brief exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin or tefluthrin increased total distance moved, maximum velocity and percentage of time moving. Repeated measurements on individual beetles indicated that movement decreased 240 min after initial lambda-cyhalothrin exposure, but increased again following a second exposure, suggesting hyperactivity could lead to increased trap captures in the field. Two field experiments in which ground beetles were collected after lambda-cyhalothrin or permethrin application attempted to detect increases in population size estimates as a result of hyperactivity. Field trials used mark-release-recapture methods in small plots and natural carabid populations in larger plots, but found no significant short-term (<6 day) increases in beetle trap captures. The disagreement between laboratory and field results suggests mechanisms other than hyperactivity may better explain unusual changes in population size estimates. When traps are used as a primary sampling tool, unexpected population-level effects should be interpreted carefully or with additional data less influenced by arthropod activity.

  20. Beak measurements of octopus ( Octopus variabilis) in Jiaozhou Bay and their use in size and biomass estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ying; Ren, Yiping; Meng, Wenrong; Li, Long; Mao, Xia; Han, Dongyan; Ma, Qiuyun

    2013-09-01

    Cephalopods play key roles in global marine ecosystems as both predators and preys. Regressive estimation of original size and weight of cephalopod from beak measurements is a powerful tool of interrogating the feeding ecology of predators at higher trophic levels. In this study, regressive relationships among beak measurements and body length and weight were determined for an octopus species ( Octopus variabilis), an important endemic cephalopod species in the northwest Pacific Ocean. A total of 193 individuals (63 males and 130 females) were collected at a monthly interval from Jiaozhou Bay, China. Regressive relationships among 6 beak measurements (upper hood length, UHL; upper crest length, UCL; lower hood length, LHL; lower crest length, LCL; and upper and lower beak weights) and mantle length (ML), total length (TL) and body weight (W) were determined. Results showed that the relationships between beak size and TL and beak size and ML were linearly regressive, while those between beak size and W fitted a power function model. LHL and UCL were the most useful measurements for estimating the size and biomass of O. variabilis. The relationships among beak measurements and body length (either ML or TL) were not significantly different between two sexes; while those among several beak measurements (UHL, LHL and LBW) and body weight (W) were sexually different. Since male individuals of this species have a slightly greater body weight distribution than female individuals, the body weight was not an appropriate measurement for estimating size and biomass, especially when the sex of individuals in the stomachs of predators was unknown. These relationships provided essential information for future use in size and biomass estimation of O. variabilis, as well as the estimation of predator/prey size ratios in the diet of top predators.

  1. How to Estimate and Interpret Various Effect Sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacha-Haase, Tammi; Thompson, Bruce

    2004-01-01

    The present article presents a tutorial on how to estimate and interpret various effect sizes. The 5th edition of the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (2001) described the failure to report effect sizes as a "defect" (p. 5), and 23 journals have published author guidelines requiring effect size reporting. Although…

  2. Size dimorphism, molt status, and body mass variation of Prairie Falcons nesting in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhof, Karen; McKinley, James O.

    2006-01-01

    Birds face challenges in how they allocate energy during the reproductive season. Most temperate zone species do not breed and molt at the same time, presumably because of the high energy demands of these two activities (Espie et al. 1996 and citations therein). However, representatives of at least four raptor genera are known to molt during the nesting season (Schmutz and Schmutz 1975, Newton and Marquiss 1982, Schmutz 1992, Espie et al. 1996). Molt strategies vary among raptor species depending on prey abundance, migration strategies, and the relative costs of reproduction. Sexually-dimorphic raptors typically have different roles in parenting, which result in different strategies for energy allocation. Male and female Eurasian Kestrels (Falco tinnunculus), for example, exhibit different molt patterns and mass changes during the breeding season (Village 1990). Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) are similar to Eurasian Kestrels in that males provide most of the prey to females and young during the first part of the nesting season (Holthuijzen 1990), but no published data exist on molt patterns or mass changes in Prairie Falcons. Reliable information about raptor molt and morphometrics has important implications for modeling energetics and for understanding the role of sexes in raising young. Such knowledge also has practical application for distinguishing sexes of raptors and for determining appropriate size limits of transmitters used for telemetry studies. In this paper, we report on morphometric characteristics useful in distinguishing sexes of Prairie Falcons captured during several breeding seasons in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA), and we assess changes in mass and molt status through the nesting season.

  3. The influence of particle size of dietary prey on food consumption and ecological conversion efficiency of young-of-the-year sand lance, Ammodytes personatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yao; Liu, Yong; Liu, Xinfu; Tang, Oisheng

    2010-06-01

    The Eggers model was used to study the influence of two particle sizes of dietary prey on food consumption and ecological conversion efficiency of young-of-the-year sand lance, Ammodytes personatus, in continuous flow-through seawater in 2.5-m 3 tanks in the laboratory. The sand lances (average body weight 0.85 ± 0.21 g) were fed larval (average body length 0.56 ± 0.08 mm) or adult (average body length 10.12 ± 1.61 mm) Artemia salina. The gastric evacuation rate of the fish feeding on larval Artemia was 0.214, higher than that of those feeding on adult Artemia (0.189). The daily food consumption of the fish feeding on larval Artemia was 60.14 kJ/100 g in terms of energy content, higher than that of the fish feeding on adult Artemia (51.69 kJ/100 g), but the daily growth rate of fish feeding on larval Artemia was 14.86 kJ/100 g, significantly lower than that of the fish feeding on adult Artemia (19.50 kJ/100 g), indicating that less energy was used for growth when the food particles were smaller. Slow growth of sand lances preying on larval Artemia was probably due to the high energy consumption during predation, consistent with the basic suppositions of optimal foraging theory.

  4. Effect size estimates: current use, calculations, and interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Catherine O; Morris, Peter E; Richler, Jennifer J

    2012-02-01

    The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (American Psychological Association, 2001, American Psychological Association, 2010) calls for the reporting of effect sizes and their confidence intervals. Estimates of effect size are useful for determining the practical or theoretical importance of an effect, the relative contributions of factors, and the power of an analysis. We surveyed articles published in 2009 and 2010 in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, noting the statistical analyses reported and the associated reporting of effect size estimates. Effect sizes were reported for fewer than half of the analyses; no article reported a confidence interval for an effect size. The most often reported analysis was analysis of variance, and almost half of these reports were not accompanied by effect sizes. Partial η2 was the most commonly reported effect size estimate for analysis of variance. For t tests, 2/3 of the articles did not report an associated effect size estimate; Cohen's d was the most often reported. We provide a straightforward guide to understanding, selecting, calculating, and interpreting effect sizes for many types of data and to methods for calculating effect size confidence intervals and power analysis.

  5. Estimation of sample size and testing power (part 5).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-02-01

    Estimation of sample size and testing power is an important component of research design. This article introduced methods for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the single-group design, the paired design or the crossover design. To be specific, this article introduced formulas for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the above three designs, the realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software and elaborated it with examples, which will benefit researchers for implementing the repetition principle.

  6. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  7. Prey life-history and bioenergetic responses across a predation gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennie, M D; Purchase, C F; Shuter, B J; Collins, N C; Abrams, P A; Morgan, G E

    2010-10-01

    To evaluate the importance of non-consumptive effects of predators on prey life histories under natural conditions, an index of predator abundance was developed for naturally occurring populations of a common prey fish, the yellow perch Perca flavescens, and compared to life-history variables and rates of prey energy acquisition and allocation as estimated from mass balance models. The predation index was positively related to maximum size and size at maturity in both male and female P. flavescens, but not with life span or reproductive investment. The predation index was positively related to size-adjusted specific growth rates and growth efficiencies but negatively related to model estimates of size-adjusted specific consumption and activity rates in both vulnerable (small) and invulnerable (large) size classes of P. flavescens. These observations suggest a trade-off between growth and activity rates, mediated by reduced activity in response to increasing predator densities. Lower growth rates and growth efficiencies in populations with fewer predators, despite increased consumption suggests either 1) a reduction in prey resources at lower predator densities or 2) an intrinsic cost of rapid prey growth that makes it unfavourable unless offset by a perceived threat of predation. This study provides evidence of trade-offs between growth and activity rates induced by predation risk in natural prey fish populations and illustrates how behavioural modification induced through predation can shape the life histories of prey fish species. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  8. Food photographs in portion size estimation among adolescent Mozambican girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkalo, Liisa; Erkkola, Maijaliisa; Fidalgo, Lourdes; Nevalainen, Jaakko; Mutanen, Marja

    2013-09-01

    To assess the validity of food photographs in portion size estimation among adolescent girls in Mozambique. The study was carried out in preparation for the larger ZANE study, which used the 24 h dietary recall method. Life-sized photographs of three portion sizes of two staple foods and three sauces were produced. Participants ate weighed portions of one staple food and one sauce. After the meal, they were asked to estimate the amount of food with the aid of the food photographs. Zambezia Province, Mozambique. Ninety-nine girls aged 13–18 years. The mean differences between estimated and actual portion sizes relative to the actual portion size ranged from 219% to 8% for different foods. The respective mean difference for all foods combined was 25% (95% CI 212, 2 %). Especially larger portions of the staple foods were often underestimated. For the staple foods, between 62% and 64% of the participants were classified into the same thirds of the distribution of estimated and actual food consumption and for sauces, the percentages ranged from 38% to 63%. Bland–Altman plots showed wide limits of agreement. Using life-sized food photographs among adolescent Mozambican girls resulted in a rather large variation in the accuracy of individuals’ estimates. The ability to rank individuals according to their consumption was, however, satisfactory for most foods. There seems to be a need to further develop and test food photographs used in different populations in Sub-Saharan Africa to improve the accuracy of portion size estimates.

  9. Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

    2008-01-01

    Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Estimating the average grain size of metals - approved standard 1969

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1975-01-01

    These methods cover procedures for estimating and rules for expressing the average grain size of all metals and consisting entirely, or principally, of a single phase. The methods may also be used for any structures having appearances similar to those of the metallic structures shown in the comparison charts. The three basic procedures for grain size estimation which are discussed are comparison procedure, intercept (or Heyn) procedure, and planimetric (or Jeffries) procedure. For specimens consisting of equiaxed grains, the method of comparing the specimen with a standard chart is most convenient and is sufficiently accurate for most commercial purposes. For high degrees of accuracy in estimating grain size, the intercept or planimetric procedures may be used

  11. Estimation of portion size in children's dietary assessment: lessons learnt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E; Adamson, A J; Anderson, A S; Barton, K L; Wrieden, W L

    2009-02-01

    Assessing the dietary intake of young children is challenging. In any 1 day, children may have several carers responsible for providing them with their dietary requirements, and once children reach school age, traditional methods such as weighing all items consumed become impractical. As an alternative to weighed records, food portion size assessment tools are available to assist subjects in estimating the amounts of foods consumed. Existing food photographs designed for use with adults and based on adult portion sizes have been found to be inappropriate for use with children. This article presents a review and summary of a body of work carried out to improve the estimation of portion sizes consumed by children. Feasibility work was undertaken to determine the accuracy and precision of three portion size assessment tools; food photographs, food models and a computer-based Interactive Portion Size Assessment System (IPSAS). These tools were based on portion sizes served to children during the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. As children often do not consume all of the food served to them, smaller portions were included in each tool for estimation of leftovers. The tools covered 22 foods, which children commonly consume. Children were served known amounts of each food and leftovers were recorded. They were then asked to estimate both the amount of food that they were served and the amount of any food leftover. Children were found to estimate food portion size with an accuracy approaching that of adults using both the food photographs and IPSAS. Further development is underway to increase the number of food photographs and to develop IPSAS to cover a much wider range of foods and to validate the use of these tools in a 'real life' setting.

  12. Estimation of Tooth Size Discrepancies among Different Malocclusion Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Hasija, Narender; Bala, Madhu; Goyal, Virender

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Regards and Tribute: Late Dr Narender Hasija was a mentor and visionary in the light of knowledge and experience. We pay our regards with deepest gratitude to the departed soul to rest in peace. Bolton’s ratios help in estimating overbite, overjet relationships, the effects of contemplated extractions on posterior occlusion, incisor relationships and identification of occlusal misfit produced by tooth size discrepancies. Aim: To determine any difference in tooth size discrepancy in a...

  13. Estimated spatial requirements of the medium- to large-sized ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conservation planning in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a recognised world plant diversity hotspot, required information on the estimated spatial requirements of selected medium- to large-sized mammals within each of 102 Broad Habitat Units (BHUs) delineated according to key biophysical parameters.

  14. Estimating population size of Saddle-billed Storks Ephippiorhynchus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population size within associated confidence limits using a modified mark–recapture field method. The vehicle survey, conducted shortly after rainfall in the area, did not produce results with known precision under these conditions. A repeat of this census in spring, after the peak ...

  15. Estimating the size of the homeless population in Budapest, Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    David, B; Snijders, TAB

    In this study we try to estimate the size of the homeless population in Budapest by using two - non-standard - sampling methods: snowball sampling and capture-recapture method. Using two methods and three different data sets we are able to compare the methods as well as the results, and we also

  16. Estimation of particle size distribution of nanoparticles from electrical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... blockade (CB) phenomena of electrical conduction through atiny nanoparticle. Considering the ZnO nanocomposites to be spherical, Coulomb-blockade model of quantum dot isapplied here. The size distribution of particle is estimated from that model and compared with the results obtainedfrom AFM and XRD analyses.

  17. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  18. Webometrics: Some Critical Issues of WWW Size Estimation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Mohana Arunachalam

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of webpages in the Internet has increased tremendously over the last two decades however only a part of it is indexed by various search engines. This small portion is the indexable web of the Internet and can be usually reachable from a Search Engine. Search engines play a big role in making the World Wide Web accessible to the end user, and how much of the World Wide Web is accessible on the size of the search engine’s index. Researchers have proposed several ways to estimate this size of the indexable web using search engines with and without privileged access to the search engine’s database. Our report provides a summary of methods used in the last two decades to estimate the size of the World Wide Web, as well as describe how this knowledge can be used in other aspects/tasks concerning the World Wide Web.

  19. Prey responses to predator chemical cues: disentangling the importance of the number and biomass of prey consumed.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael W McCoy

    Full Text Available To effectively balance investment in predator defenses versus other traits, organisms must accurately assess predation risk. Chemical cues caused by predation events are indicators of risk for prey in a wide variety of systems, but the relationship between how prey perceive risk in relation to the amount of prey consumed by predators is poorly understood. While per capita predation rate is often used as the metric of relative risk, studies aimed at quantifying predator-induced defenses commonly control biomass of prey consumed as the metric of risk. However, biomass consumed can change by altering either the number or size of prey consumed. In this study we determine whether phenotypic plasticity to predator chemical cues depends upon prey biomass consumed, prey number consumed, or both. We examine the growth response of red-eyed treefrog tadpoles (Agalychnis callidryas to cues from a larval dragonfly (Anax amazili. Biomass consumed was manipulated by either increasing the number of prey while holding individual prey size constant, or by holding the number of prey constant and varying individual prey size. We address two questions. (i Do prey reduce growth rate in response to chemical cues in a dose dependent manner? (ii Does the magnitude of the response depend on whether prey consumption increases via number or size of prey? We find that the phenotypic response of prey is an asymptotic function of prey biomass consumed. However, the asymptotic response is higher when more prey are consumed. Our findings have important implications for evaluating past studies and how future experiments should be designed. A stronger response to predation cues generated by more individual prey deaths is consistent with models that predict prey sensitivity to per capita risk, providing a more direct link between empirical and theoretical studies which are often focused on changes in population sizes not individual biomass.

  20. Size estimates of nobel gas clusters by Rayleigh scattering experiments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pinpin Zhu (朱频频); Guoquan Ni (倪国权); Zhizhan Xu (徐至展)

    2003-01-01

    Noble gases (argon, krypton, and xenon) are puffed into vacuum through a nozzle to produce clusters for studying laser-cluster interactions. Good estimates of the average size of the argon, krypton and xenon clusters are made by carrying out a series of Rayleigh scattering experiments. In the experiments, we have found that the scattered signal intensity varied greatly with the opening area of the pulsed valve. A new method is put forward to choose the appropriate scattered signal and measure the size of Kr cluster.

  1. Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 3).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2011-12-01

    This article introduces the definition and sample size estimation of three special tests (namely, non-inferiority test, equivalence test and superiority test) for qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels having a binary response variable. Non-inferiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is not clinically inferior to that of the positive control drug. Equivalence test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the experimental drug and the control drug have clinically equivalent efficacy. Superiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is clinically superior to that of the control drug. By specific examples, this article introduces formulas of sample size estimation for the three special tests, and their SAS realization in detail.

  2. Estimation of sample size and testing power (part 6).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-03-01

    The design of one factor with k levels (k ≥ 3) refers to the research that only involves one experimental factor with k levels (k ≥ 3), and there is no arrangement for other important non-experimental factors. This paper introduces the estimation of sample size and testing power for quantitative data and qualitative data having a binary response variable with the design of one factor with k levels (k ≥ 3).

  3. Predator and prey perception in copepods due to hydromechanical signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Visser, Andre

    1999-01-01

    of the different components of the fluid disturbance. We use this model to argue that prey perception depends on the absolute magnitude of the fluid velocity generated by the moving prey, while predator perception depends on the magnitude of one or several of the components of the fluid velocity gradients...... (deformation rate, vorticity, acceleration) generated by the predator. On the assumption that hydrodynamic disturbances are perceived through the mechanical bending of sensory setae, we estimate the magnitude of the signal strength due to each of the fluid disturbance components. We then derive equations...... for reaction distances as a function of threshold signal strength and the size and velocity of the prey or predator. We provide a conceptual framework for quantifying threshold signal strengths and, hence, perception distances. The model is illustrated by several examples, and we demonstrate, for example, (1...

  4. Estimation of LOCA break size using cascaded Fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    Operators of nuclear power plants may not be equipped with sufficient information during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), which can be fatal, or they may not have sufficient time to analyze the information they do have, even if this information is adequate. It is not easy to predict the progression of LOCAs in nuclear power plants. Therefore, accurate information on the LOCA break position and size should be provided to efficiently manage the accident. In this paper, the LOCA break size is predicted using a cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) model. The input data of the CFNN model are the time-integrated values of each measurement signal for an initial short-time interval after a reactor scram. The training of the CFNN model is accomplished by a hybrid method combined with a genetic algorithm and a least squares method. As a result, LOCA break size is estimated exactly by the proposed CFNN model.

  5. Reliability of fish size estimates obtained from multibeam imaging sonar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Magowan, Kevin J.; Brown, Lori M.; Fox, Dewayne A.

    2013-01-01

    Multibeam imaging sonars have considerable potential for use in fisheries surveys because the video-like images are easy to interpret, and they contain information about fish size, shape, and swimming behavior, as well as characteristics of occupied habitats. We examined images obtained using a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) multibeam sonar for Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, striped bass Morone saxatilis, white perch M. americana, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus of known size (20–141 cm) to determine the reliability of length estimates. For ranges up to 11 m, percent measurement error (sonar estimate – total length)/total length × 100 varied by species but was not related to the fish's range or aspect angle (orientation relative to the sonar beam). Least-square mean percent error was significantly different from 0.0 for Atlantic sturgeon (x̄  =  −8.34, SE  =  2.39) and white perch (x̄  = 14.48, SE  =  3.99) but not striped bass (x̄  =  3.71, SE  =  2.58) or channel catfish (x̄  = 3.97, SE  =  5.16). Underestimating lengths of Atlantic sturgeon may be due to difficulty in detecting the snout or the longer dorsal lobe of the heterocercal tail. White perch was the smallest species tested, and it had the largest percent measurement errors (both positive and negative) and the lowest percentage of images classified as good or acceptable. Automated length estimates for the four species using Echoview software varied with position in the view-field. Estimates tended to be low at more extreme azimuthal angles (fish's angle off-axis within the view-field), but mean and maximum estimates were highly correlated with total length. Software estimates also were biased by fish images partially outside the view-field and when acoustic crosstalk occurred (when a fish perpendicular to the sonar and at relatively close range is detected in the side lobes of adjacent beams). These sources of

  6. Estimating minimum polycrystalline aggregate size for macroscopic material homogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovac, M.; Simonovski, I.; Cizelj, L.

    2002-01-01

    During severe accidents the pressure boundary of reactor coolant system can be subjected to extreme loadings, which might cause failure. Reliable estimation of the extreme deformations can be crucial to determine the consequences of severe accidents. Important drawback of classical continuum mechanics is idealization of inhomogenous microstructure of materials. Classical continuum mechanics therefore cannot predict accurately the differences between measured responses of specimens, which are different in size but geometrical similar (size effect). A numerical approach, which models elastic-plastic behavior on mesoscopic level, is proposed to estimate minimum size of polycrystalline aggregate above which it can be considered macroscopically homogeneous. The main idea is to divide continuum into a set of sub-continua. Analysis of macroscopic element is divided into modeling the random grain structure (using Voronoi tessellation and random orientation of crystal lattice) and calculation of strain/stress field. Finite element method is used to obtain numerical solutions of strain and stress fields. The analysis is limited to 2D models.(author)

  7. Estimation of Tooth Size Discrepancies among Different Malocclusion Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasija, Narender; Bala, Madhu; Goyal, Virender

    2014-05-01

    Regards and Tribute: Late Dr Narender Hasija was a mentor and visionary in the light of knowledge and experience. We pay our regards with deepest gratitude to the departed soul to rest in peace. Bolton's ratios help in estimating overbite, overjet relationships, the effects of contemplated extractions on posterior occlusion, incisor relationships and identification of occlusal misfit produced by tooth size discrepancies. To determine any difference in tooth size discrepancy in anterior as well as overall ratio in different malocclusions and comparison with Bolton's study. After measuring the teeth on all 100 patients, Bolton's analysis was performed. Results were compared with Bolton's means and standard deviations. The results were also subjected to statistical analysis. Results show that the mean and standard deviations of ideal occlusion cases are comparable with those Bolton but, when the mean and standard deviation of malocclusion groups are compared with those of Bolton, the values of standard deviation are higher, though the mean is comparable. How to cite this article: Hasija N, Bala M, Goyal V. Estimation of Tooth Size Discrepancies among Different Malocclusion Groups. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2014;7(2):82-85.

  8. Using accelerometry to quantify prey attack and handling behaviours in piscivorous pike Esox lucius

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deurs, Mikael van; Andersson, A.; Vinterstare, J.

    2017-01-01

    Accelerometer technology was used to evaluate behaviours in the teleost ambush predator pike Esox lucius foraging on crucian carp Carassius carassius. Automated rule-based estimates of prey-size determined handling time were obtained and are compared with video-recorded behaviours. Solutions to t...... attachment and the limitations imposed by battery-time and data-logging capacities are evaluated......Accelerometer technology was used to evaluate behaviours in the teleost ambush predator pike Esox lucius foraging on crucian carp Carassius carassius. Automated rule-based estimates of prey-size determined handling time were obtained and are compared with video-recorded behaviours. Solutions to tag...

  9. Relationships between otolith and fish size from Mediterranean and north-eastern Atlantic species to be used in predator-prey studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez, J; Manjabacas, A; Tuset, V M; Lombarte, A

    2016-10-01

    Regressions between fish length and otolith size are provided for 40 species from the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean and 142 species from the Mediterranean Sea. Regressions were also estimated at genus level. Most of the regressions (c. 84%) explained a high percentage of the deviance (>75%). © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  10. NDE errors and their propagation in sizing and growth estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, D.; Obrutsky, L.; Lakhan, R.

    2009-01-01

    The accuracy attributed to eddy current flaw sizing determines the amount of conservativism required in setting tube-plugging limits. Several sources of error contribute to the uncertainty of the measurements, and the way in which these errors propagate and interact affects the overall accuracy of the flaw size and flaw growth estimates. An example of this calculation is the determination of an upper limit on flaw growth over one operating period, based on the difference between two measurements. Signal-to-signal comparison involves a variety of human, instrumental, and environmental error sources; of these, some propagate additively and some multiplicatively. In a difference calculation, specific errors in the first measurement may be correlated with the corresponding errors in the second; others may be independent. Each of the error sources needs to be identified and quantified individually, as does its distribution in the field data. A mathematical framework for the propagation of the errors can then be used to assess the sensitivity of the overall uncertainty to each individual error component. This paper quantifies error sources affecting eddy current sizing estimates and presents analytical expressions developed for their effect on depth estimates. A simple case study is used to model the analysis process. For each error source, the distribution of the field data was assessed and propagated through the analytical expressions. While the sizing error obtained was consistent with earlier estimates and with deviations from ultrasonic depth measurements, the error on growth was calculated as significantly smaller than that obtained assuming uncorrelated errors. An interesting result of the sensitivity analysis in the present case study is the quantification of the error reduction available from post-measurement compensation of magnetite effects. With the absolute and difference error equations, variance-covariance matrices, and partial derivatives developed in

  11. Selective Predation of a Stalking Predator on Ungulate Prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Heurich

    Full Text Available Prey selection is a key factor shaping animal populations and evolutionary dynamics. An optimal forager should target prey that offers the highest benefits in terms of energy content at the lowest costs. Predators are therefore expected to select for prey of optimal size. Stalking predators do not pursue their prey long, which may lead to a more random choice of prey individuals. Due to difficulties in assessing the composition of available prey populations, data on prey selection of stalking carnivores are still scarce. We show how the stalking predator Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx selects prey individuals based on species identity, age, sex and individual behaviour. To address the difficulties in assessing prey population structure, we confirm inferred selection patterns by using two independent data sets: (1 data of 387 documented kills of radio-collared lynx were compared to the prey population structure retrieved from systematic camera trapping using Manly's standardized selection ratio alpha and (2 data on 120 radio-collared roe deer were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Among the larger red deer prey, lynx selected against adult males-the largest and potentially most dangerous prey individuals. In roe deer lynx preyed selectively on males and did not select for a specific age class. Activity during high risk periods reduced the risk of falling victim to a lynx attack. Our results suggest that the stalking predator lynx actively selects for size, while prey behaviour induces selection by encounter and stalking success rates.

  12. When prey provide more than food: mammalian predators appropriating the refugia of their prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bill Zielinski

    2015-01-01

    Some mammalian predators acquire both food and shelter from their prey, by eating them and using the refugia the prey construct. I searched the literature for examples of predators that exhibit this behavior and summarize their taxonomic affiliations, relative sizes, and distributions. I hypothesized that size ratios of species involved in this dynamic would be near 1....

  13. Estimating Functions of Distributions Defined over Spaces of Unknown Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Wolpert

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider Bayesian estimation of information-theoretic quantities from data, using a Dirichlet prior. Acknowledging the uncertainty of the event space size m and the Dirichlet prior’s concentration parameter c, we treat both as random variables set by a hyperprior. We show that the associated hyperprior, P(c, m, obeys a simple “Irrelevance of Unseen Variables” (IUV desideratum iff P(c, m = P(cP(m. Thus, requiring IUV greatly reduces the number of degrees of freedom of the hyperprior. Some information-theoretic quantities can be expressed multiple ways, in terms of different event spaces, e.g., mutual information. With all hyperpriors (implicitly used in earlier work, different choices of this event space lead to different posterior expected values of these information-theoretic quantities. We show that there is no such dependence on the choice of event space for a hyperprior that obeys IUV. We also derive a result that allows us to exploit IUV to greatly simplify calculations, like the posterior expected mutual information or posterior expected multi-information. We also use computer experiments to favorably compare an IUV-based estimator of entropy to three alternative methods in common use. We end by discussing how seemingly innocuous changes to the formalization of an estimation problem can substantially affect the resultant estimates of posterior expectations.

  14. Bound on the estimation grid size for sparse reconstruction in direction of arrival estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coutiño Minguez, M.A.; Pribic, R; Leus, G.J.T.

    2016-01-01

    A bound for sparse reconstruction involving both the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the estimation grid size is presented. The bound is illustrated for the case of a uniform linear array (ULA). By reducing the number of possible sparse vectors present in the feasible set of a constrained ℓ1-norm

  15. Laser photogrammetry improves size and demographic estimates for whale sharks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Prebble, Clare E.M.; Marshall, Andrea D.; Bennett, Michael B.; Weeks, Scarla J.; Cliff, Geremy; Wintner, Sabine P.; Pierce, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    Whale sharks Rhincodon typus are globally threatened, but a lack of biological and demographic information hampers an accurate assessment of their vulnerability to further decline or capacity to recover. We used laser photogrammetry at two aggregation sites to obtain more accurate size estimates of free-swimming whale sharks compared to visual estimates, allowing improved estimates of biological parameters. Individual whale sharks ranged from 432–917 cm total length (TL) (mean ± SD = 673 ± 118.8 cm, N = 122) in southern Mozambique and from 420–990 cm TL (mean ± SD = 641 ± 133 cm, N = 46) in Tanzania. By combining measurements of stranded individuals with photogrammetry measurements of free-swimming sharks, we calculated length at 50% maturity for males in Mozambique at 916 cm TL. Repeat measurements of individual whale sharks measured over periods from 347–1,068 days yielded implausible growth rates, suggesting that the growth increment over this period was not large enough to be detected using laser photogrammetry, and that the method is best applied to estimating growth rates over longer (decadal) time periods. The sex ratio of both populations was biased towards males (74% in Mozambique, 89% in Tanzania), the majority of which were immature (98% in Mozambique, 94% in Tanzania). The population structure for these two aggregations was similar to most other documented whale shark aggregations around the world. Information on small (sharks, mature individuals, and females in this region is lacking, but necessary to inform conservation initiatives for this globally threatened species. PMID:25870776

  16. Market Potential Estimation of a Small and Medium Size Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, K. B.; Yang, M. H.; Lee, M. K.; Chung, W. S.; Kim, H. J.; Kim, S. S.; Lee, B. W.; Ryu, J. S.; Juhn, P. E.

    2004-12-01

    Technically, nuclear reactors which produce energy in the form of heat can supply energy products other than electricity, including district heat, process heat, potable water etc. Currently non-civil uses of nuclear energy are very limited civil applications except for a military nuclear powered ship and an energy usage in isolated areas. However, the future global environment and an energy resources scarcity could promote a significant usage of non-electrical applications on an industrial scale. Considering these situations, this report analyzed the following: (1) Worldwide non-electrical application of a small and medium sized nuclear reactor - survey the situation of the current technical applications, - survey the global market potential estimation for various applications (2) Technical cooperation potential in several countries - identify necessary conditions for nuclear cooperation, - select candidate countries: Morocco, UAE, Indonesia, Chile and Vietnam, - survey the energy and water situation, - survey the legal and international regime infrastructure

  17. Prey preferences of the jaguar Panthera onca reflect the post-Pleistocene demise of large prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt W Hayward

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Documenting the impacts of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on predator-prey interactions is a challenge because of the incomplete fossil record and depauperate extant community structure. We used a comparative ecological approach to investigate whether the existing prey preference patterns of jaguars Panthera onca were potentially affected by the Pleistocene extinctions in the Americas compared with large felids in Africa and Asia. We reviewed the literature and found 25 studies reporting 3214 jaguar kills recorded throughout the species’ distribution. We found that jaguars significantly preferred capybara Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris and giant anteater Myrmecophaga tridactyla, and avoided agoutis, carnivorans, primates, black-eared opossum Didelphis marsupialis and tapirs. Generalised linear models showed that jaguars select prey primarily based on socio-ecological and behavioural traits (abundance and herd size, rather than morphological characteristics (body size. Nonetheless, their accessible prey weight range was 6-60 kg, preferred prey weight range was 45-85 kg, and mean mass of significantly preferred prey was 32 ± 13 kg leading to a predator to prey body mass ratio of 1:0.53, which is much less than that of other solitary felids. Compared with other large, solitary felids, jaguars have an unusual predator to prey body mass ratio, show limited effect of prey morphology as a driver of prey selection, lack evidence of optimal foraging beyond their preferred prey, and an absence of preferentially hunting on Cetartiodactyla herbivores. These features, coupled with the reduction in jaguar body mass since the Pleistocene, suggest that the loss of larger potential prey items within the preferred and accessible weight ranges at the end-Pleistocene still affects jaguar predatory behaviour. It may be that jaguars survived this mass extinction event by preferentially preying on relatively small species.

  18. Using Diffraction Tomography to Estimate Marine Animal Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, J. S.; Roberts, P.

    In this article we consider the development of acoustic methods which have the potential to size marine animals. The proposed technique uses scattered sound in order to invert for both animal size and shape. The technique uses the Distorted Wave Born Approximation (DWBA) in order to model sound scattered from these organisms. The use of the DWBA also provides a valuable context for formulating data analysis techniques in order to invert for parameters of the animal. Although 3-dimensional observations can be obtained from a complete set of views, due to the difficulty of collecting full 3-dimensional scatter, it is useful to simplify the inversion by approximating the animal by a few parameters. Here, the animals are modeled as 3-dimensional ellipsoids. This reduces the complexity of the problem to a determination of the 3 semi axes for the x, y and z dimensions from just a few radial spokes through the 3-dimensional Fourier Transform. In order to test the idea, simulated scatter data is taken from a 3-dimensional model of a marine animal and the resultant data are inverted in order to estimate animal shape

  19. The influence of personal BMI on body size estimations and sensitivity to body size change in anorexia spectrum disorders.

    OpenAIRE

    Cornelissen, Katri; Bester, Andre; Cairns, Paul; Tovee, Martin; Cornelissen, Piers

    2015-01-01

    In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the influence of personal BMI on body size estimation in 42 women who have symptoms of anorexia (referred to henceforth as anorexia spectrum disorders, ANSD), and 100 healthy controls. Low BMI control participants over-estimate their size and high BMI controls under-estimate, a pattern which is predicted by a perceptual phenomenon called contraction bias. In addition, control participants' sensitivity to size change declines as their BMI increase...

  20. Estimating the Size and Impact of the Ecological Restoration Economy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd BenDor

    Full Text Available Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broad-scale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actions - the activities that are part of what we term the "restoration economy." In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national input-output model (IMPLAN 3.1 in order to estimate the indirect and induced economic impacts of restoration activities. Based on this analysis we conclude that the domestic ecological restoration sector directly employs ~ 126,000 workers and generates ~ $9.5 billion in economic output (sales annually. This activity supports an additional 95,000 jobs and $15 billion in economic output through indirect (business-to-business linkages and increased household spending.

  1. First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia, S.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Genome size diversity in angiosperms varies roughly 2400-fold, although approximately 45% of angiosperm families lack a single genome size estimation, and therefore, this range could be enlarged. To contribute completing family and genera representation, DNA C-Values are here provided for 19 species from 16 eudicot families, including first values for 6 families, 14 genera and 17 species. The sample of species studied is very diverse, including herbs, weeds, vines, shrubs and trees. Data are discussed regarding previous genome size estimates of closely related species or genera, if any, their chromosome number, growth form or invasive behaviour. The present research contributes approximately 1.5% new values for previously unreported angiosperm families, being the current coverage around 55% of angiosperm families, according to the Plant DNA C-Values Database.

    La diversidad del tamaño del genoma en angiospermas es muy amplia, siendo el valor más elevado aproximadamente unas 2400 veces superior al más pequeño. Sin embargo, cerca del 45% de las familias no presentan ni una sola estimación, por lo que el rango real podría ser ampliado. Para contribuir a completar la representación de familias y géneros de angiospermas, este estudio contribuye con valores C para 19 especies de 16 familias de eudicoticotiledóneas, incluyendo los primeros valores para 6 familias, 14 géneros y 17 especies. La muestra estudiada es muy diversa, e incluye hierbas, malezas, enredaderas, arbustos y árboles. Se discuten los resultados en función de estimaciones previas del tamaño del genoma de especies o géneros estrechamente relacionados, del número de cromosomas, la forma de crecimiento o el comportamiento invasor de las especies analizadas. El presente estudio contribuye aproximadamente en un 1,5% de nuevos valores para familias de angiospermas no estudiadas previamente, de las que actualmente existe información para el 55%, según la base de datos

  2. Estimating the size of the solution space of metabolic networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulet Roberto

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cellular metabolism is one of the most investigated system of biological interactions. While the topological nature of individual reactions and pathways in the network is quite well understood there is still a lack of comprehension regarding the global functional behavior of the system. In the last few years flux-balance analysis (FBA has been the most successful and widely used technique for studying metabolism at system level. This method strongly relies on the hypothesis that the organism maximizes an objective function. However only under very specific biological conditions (e.g. maximization of biomass for E. coli in reach nutrient medium the cell seems to obey such optimization law. A more refined analysis not assuming extremization remains an elusive task for large metabolic systems due to algorithmic limitations. Results In this work we propose a novel algorithmic strategy that provides an efficient characterization of the whole set of stable fluxes compatible with the metabolic constraints. Using a technique derived from the fields of statistical physics and information theory we designed a message-passing algorithm to estimate the size of the affine space containing all possible steady-state flux distributions of metabolic networks. The algorithm, based on the well known Bethe approximation, can be used to approximately compute the volume of a non full-dimensional convex polytope in high dimensions. We first compare the accuracy of the predictions with an exact algorithm on small random metabolic networks. We also verify that the predictions of the algorithm match closely those of Monte Carlo based methods in the case of the Red Blood Cell metabolic network. Then we test the effect of gene knock-outs on the size of the solution space in the case of E. coli central metabolism. Finally we analyze the statistical properties of the average fluxes of the reactions in the E. coli metabolic network. Conclusion We propose a

  3. Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

    2017-09-14

    While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

  4. Optimal intermittent search strategies: smelling the prey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Revelli, J A; Wio, H S; Rojo, F; Budde, C E

    2010-01-01

    We study the kinetics of the search of a single fixed target by a searcher/walker that performs an intermittent random walk, characterized by different states of motion. In addition, we assume that the walker has the ability to detect the scent left by the prey/target in its surroundings. Our results, in agreement with intuition, indicate that the prey's survival probability could be strongly reduced (increased) if the predator is attracted (or repelled) by the trace left by the prey. We have also found that, for a positive trace (the predator is guided towards the prey), increasing the inhomogeneity's size reduces the prey's survival probability, while the optimal value of α (the parameter that regulates intermittency) ceases to exist. The agreement between theory and numerical simulations is excellent.

  5. Optimal intermittent search strategies: smelling the prey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Revelli, J A; Wio, H S [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria and CSIC, E-39005 Santander (Spain); Rojo, F; Budde, C E [Fa.M.A.F., Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Ciudad Universitaria, X5000HUA Cordoba (Argentina)

    2010-05-14

    We study the kinetics of the search of a single fixed target by a searcher/walker that performs an intermittent random walk, characterized by different states of motion. In addition, we assume that the walker has the ability to detect the scent left by the prey/target in its surroundings. Our results, in agreement with intuition, indicate that the prey's survival probability could be strongly reduced (increased) if the predator is attracted (or repelled) by the trace left by the prey. We have also found that, for a positive trace (the predator is guided towards the prey), increasing the inhomogeneity's size reduces the prey's survival probability, while the optimal value of {alpha} (the parameter that regulates intermittency) ceases to exist. The agreement between theory and numerical simulations is excellent.

  6. Wild North Island Robins (Petroica longipes respond to Prey Animacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis Garland

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available North Island robins of New Zealand are a food hoarding species, which is unique in that they almost exclusively cache highly perishable hunted insects for later retrieval. In order to do so, they either kill and dismember or paralyze their prey for caching, depending on the prey size and kind. The present study comprises two experiments, using a Violation of Expectancy (VoE paradigm to examine variation in search behavior response to different prey conditions. The first experiment presents three different types of prey (mealworms, earthworms and locusts in expected (present and unexpected (absent conditions. The second experiment presents prey in varying states of animacy (alive and whole, dead and whole, dead and halved, and an inanimate stick and reveals prey in expected (same state or unexpected (differing state conditions. While robins did not respond with differential search times to different types of unexpectedly missing prey in Experiment 1, in Experiment 2 robins searched longer in conditions where prey was found in a differing state of animacy than initially shown. Robins also searched longer for prey when immediately consuming retrieved prey than when caching retrieved prey. Results indicate that North Island robins may be sensitive to prey animacy upon storage and retrieval of insect prey; such information could play a role in storage, pilfering and retrieval strategies of such a perishable food source.

  7. AUTOMATIC ESTIMATION OF SIZE PARAMETERS USING VERIFIED COMPUTERIZED STEREOANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter R Mouton

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art computerized stereology systems combine high-resolution video microscopy and hardwaresoftware integration with stereological methods to assist users in quantifying multidimensional parameters of importance to biomedical research, including volume, surface area, length, number, their variation and spatial distribution. The requirement for constant interactions between a trained, non-expert user and the targeted features of interest currently limits the throughput efficiency of these systems. To address this issue we developed a novel approach for automatic stereological analysis of 2-D images, Verified Computerized Stereoanalysis (VCS. The VCS approach minimizes the need for user interactions with high contrast [high signal-to-noise ratio (S:N] biological objects of interest. Performance testing of the VCS approach confirmed dramatic increases in the efficiency of total object volume (size estimation, without a loss of accuracy or precision compared to conventional computerized stereology. The broad application of high efficiency VCS to high-contrast biological objects on tissue sections could reduce labor costs, enhance hypothesis testing, and accelerate the progress of biomedical research focused on improvements in health and the management of disease.

  8. Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

    2000-01-01

    Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

  9. Comparing fishers' and scientific estimates of size at maturity and maximum body size as indicators for overfishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mclean, Elizabeth L; Forrester, Graham E

    2018-04-01

    We tested whether fishers' local ecological knowledge (LEK) of two fish life-history parameters, size at maturity (SAM) at maximum body size (MS), was comparable to scientific estimates (SEK) of the same parameters, and whether LEK influenced fishers' perceptions of sustainability. Local ecological knowledge was documented for 82 fishers from a small-scale fishery in Samaná Bay, Dominican Republic, whereas SEK was compiled from the scientific literature. Size at maturity estimates derived from LEK and SEK overlapped for most of the 15 commonly harvested species (10 of 15). In contrast, fishers' maximum size estimates were usually lower than (eight species), or overlapped with (five species) scientific estimates. Fishers' size-based estimates of catch composition indicate greater potential for overfishing than estimates based on SEK. Fishers' estimates of size at capture relative to size at maturity suggest routine inclusion of juveniles in the catch (9 of 15 species), and fishers' estimates suggest that harvested fish are substantially smaller than maximum body size for most species (11 of 15 species). Scientific estimates also suggest that harvested fish are generally smaller than maximum body size (13 of 15), but suggest that the catch is dominated by adults for most species (9 of 15 species), and that juveniles are present in the catch for fewer species (6 of 15). Most Samaná fishers characterized the current state of their fishery as poor (73%) and as having changed for the worse over the past 20 yr (60%). Fishers stated that concern about overfishing, catching small fish, and catching immature fish contributed to these perceptions, indicating a possible influence of catch-size composition on their perceptions. Future work should test this link more explicitly because we found no evidence that the minority of fishers with more positive perceptions of their fishery reported systematically different estimates of catch-size composition than those with the more

  10. Prey-mediated avoidance of an intraguild predator by its intraguild prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R.R.; Blankenship, T.L.; Hooten, M.B.; Shivik, J.A.

    2010-01-01

    Intraguild (IG) predation is an important factor influencing community structure, yet factors allowing coexistence of IG predator and IG prey are not well understood. The existence of spatial refuges for IG prey has recently been noted for their importance in allowing coexistence. However, reduction in basal prey availability might lead IG prey to leave spatial refuges for greater access to prey, leading to increased IG predation and fewer opportunities for coexistence. We determined how the availability of prey affected space-use patterns of bobcats (Lynx rufus, IG prey) in relation to coyote space-use patterns (Canis latrans, IG predators). We located animals from fall 2007 to spring 2009 and estimated bobcat home ranges and core areas seasonally. For each bobcat relocation, we determined intensity of coyote use, distance to water, small mammal biomass, and mean small mammal biomass of the home range during the season the location was collected. We built generalized linear mixed models and used Akaike Information Criteria to determine which factors best predicted bobcat space use. Coyote intensity was a primary determinant of bobcat core area location. In bobcat home ranges with abundant prey, core areas occurred where coyote use was low, but shifted to areas intensively used by coyotes when prey declined. High spatial variability in basal prey abundance allowed some bobcats to avoid coyotes while at the same time others were forced into more risky areas. Our results suggest that multiple behavioral strategies associated with spatial variation in basal prey abundance likely allow IG prey and IG predators to coexist. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  11. Prey perception in feeding-current feeding copepods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Goncalves, Rodrigo J.; Florian Couespel, Damien

    2016-01-01

    We reply to the comments of Paffenhöfer and Jiang () who argues that remote chemical prey perception is necessary for feeding-current feeding copepods to fulfill their nutritional requirements in a dilute ocean, that remote chemical prey detection may only be observed at very low prey concentrati......We reply to the comments of Paffenhöfer and Jiang () who argues that remote chemical prey perception is necessary for feeding-current feeding copepods to fulfill their nutritional requirements in a dilute ocean, that remote chemical prey detection may only be observed at very low prey...... cells have short intense leakage burst, only a very small fraction of prey cells would be available to the copepod at any instance in time and, thus would be inefficient at low prey concentration. Finally, we report a few new observations of prey capture in two species of copepods, Temora longicornis...... and Centropages hamatus, offered a 45-μm sized dinoflagellate at very low concentration. The observed short prey detection distances, up to a few prey cell radii, are consistent with mechanoreception and we argue briefly that near-field mechanoreception is the most likely and common prey perception mechanism...

  12. Predator-induced flow disturbances alert prey, from the onset of an attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Jérôme; Steinmann, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Many prey species, from soil arthropods to fish, perceive the approach of predators, allowing them to escape just in time. Thus, prey capture is as important to predators as prey finding. We extend an existing framework for understanding the conjoint trajectories of predator and prey after encounters, by estimating the ratio of predator attack and prey danger perception distances, and apply it to wolf spiders attacking wood crickets. Disturbances to air flow upstream from running spiders, which are sensed by crickets, were assessed by computational fluid dynamics with the finite-elements method for a much simplified spider model: body size, speed and ground effect were all required to obtain a faithful representation of the aerodynamic signature of the spider, with the legs making only a minor contribution. The relationship between attack speed and the maximal distance at which the cricket can perceive the danger is parabolic; it splits the space defined by these two variables into regions differing in their values for this ratio. For this biological interaction, the ratio is no greater than one, implying immediate perception of the danger, from the onset of attack. Particular attention should be paid to the ecomechanical aspects of interactions with such small ratio, because of the high degree of bidirectional coupling of the behaviour of the two protagonists. This conclusion applies to several other predator–prey systems with sensory ecologies based on flow sensing, in air and water. PMID:25030986

  13. Aerial estimation of the size of gull breeding colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

    1968-01-01

    Counts on photographs and visual estimates of the numbers of territorial gulls are usually reliable indicators of the number of gull nests, but single visual estimates are not adequate to measure the number of nests in individual colonies. To properly interpret gull counts requires that several islands with known numbers of nests be photographed to establish the ratio of gulls to nests applicable for a given local census. Visual estimates are adequate to determine total breeding gull numbers by regions. Neither visual estimates nor photography will reliably detect annual changes of less than about 2.5 percent.

  14. Inferring Saving in Training Time From Effect Size Estimates

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Burright, Burke

    2000-01-01

    .... Students' time saving represents a major potential benefit of using them. This paper fills a methodology gap in estimating the students' timesaving benefit of asynchronous training technologies...

  15. Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

  16. Sabretoothed carnivores and the killing of large prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Andersson

    Full Text Available Sabre-like canines clearly have the potential to inflict grievous wounds leading to massive blood loss and rapid death. Hypotheses concerning sabretooth killing modes include attack to soft parts such as the belly or throat, where biting deep is essential to generate strikes reaching major blood vessels. Sabretoothed carnivorans are widely interpreted as hunters of larger and more powerful prey than that of their present-day nonsabretoothed relatives. However, the precise functional advantage of the sabretooth bite, particularly in relation to prey size, is unknown. Here, we present a new point-to-point bite model and show that, for sabretooths, depth of the killing bite decreases dramatically with increasing prey size. The extended gape of sabretooths only results in considerable increase in bite depth when biting into prey with a radius of less than ∼10 cm. For sabretooths, this size-reversed functional advantage suggests predation on species within a similar size range to those attacked by present-day carnivorans, rather than "megaherbivores" as previously believed. The development of the sabretooth condition appears to represent a shift in function and killing behaviour, rather than one in predator-prey relations. Furthermore, our results demonstrate how sabretoothed carnivorans are likely to have evolved along a functionally continuous trajectory: beginning as an extension of a jaw-powered killing bite, as adopted by present-day pantherine cats, followed by neck-powered biting and thereafter shifting to neck-powered shear-biting. We anticipate this new insight to be a starting point for detailed study of the evolution of pathways that encompass extreme specialisation, for example, understanding how neck-powered biting shifts into shear-biting and its significance for predator-prey interactions. We also expect that our model for point-to-point biting and bite depth estimations will yield new insights into the behaviours of a broad range of

  17. Particle size analysis in estimating the significance of airborne contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    In this report information on pertinent methods and techniques for analysing particle size distributions is compiled. The principles underlying the measurement methods are described, and the merits of different methods in relation to the information being sought and to their usefulness in the laboratory and in the field are explained. Descriptions on sampling methods, gravitational and inertial particle separation methods, electrostatic sizing devices, diffusion batteries, optical sizing techniques and autoradiography are included. Finally, the report considers sampling for respirable activity and problems related to instrument calibration

  18. Parasites as prey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goedknegt, M.A.; Welsh, J.E.; Thieltges, D.W.

    2012-01-01

    Parasites are usually considered to use their hosts as a resource for energy. However, there is increasing awareness that parasites can also become a resource themselves and serve as prey for other organisms. Here we describe various types of predation in which parasites act as prey for other

  19. Children's estimates of food portion size: the development and evaluation of three portion size assessment tools for use with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E; Matthews, J N S; Lloyd, J; Marshall, L; Mathers, J C; Nelson, M; Barton, K L; Wrieden, W L; Cornelissen, P; Harris, J; Adamson, A J

    2008-01-01

    A number of methods have been developed to assist subjects in providing an estimate of portion size but their application in improving portion size estimation by children has not been investigated systematically. The aim was to develop portion size assessment tools for use with children and to assess the accuracy of children's estimates of portion size using the tools. The tools were food photographs, food models and an interactive portion size assessment system (IPSAS). Children (n 201), aged 4-16 years, were supplied with known quantities of food to eat, in school. Food leftovers were weighed. Children estimated the amount of each food using each tool, 24 h after consuming the food. The age-specific portion sizes represented were based on portion sizes consumed by children in a national survey. Significant differences were found between the accuracy of estimates using the three tools. Children of all ages performed well using the IPSAS and food photographs. The accuracy and precision of estimates made using the food models were poor. For all tools, estimates of the amount of food served were more accurate than estimates of the amount consumed. Issues relating to reporting of foods left over which impact on estimates of the amounts of foods actually consumed require further study. The IPSAS has shown potential for assessment of dietary intake with children. Before practical application in assessment of dietary intake of children the tool would need to be expanded to cover a wider range of foods and to be validated in a 'real-life' situation.

  20. The discrepancy between emotional vs. rational estimates of body size, actual size, and ideal body ratings: theoretical and clinical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, J K; Dolce, J J

    1989-05-01

    Thirty-two asymptomatic college females were assessed on multiple aspects of body image. Subjects' estimation of the size of three body sites (waist, hips, thighs) was affected by instructional protocol. Emotional ratings, based on how they "felt" about their body, elicited ratings that were larger than actual and ideal size measures. Size ratings based on rational instructions were no different from actual sizes, but were larger than ideal ratings. There were no differences between actual and ideal sizes. The results are discussed with regard to methodological issues involved in body image research. In addition, a working hypothesis that differentiates affective/emotional from cognitive/rational aspects of body size estimation is offered to complement current theories of body image. Implications of the findings for the understanding of body image and its relationship to eating disorders are discussed.

  1. Multiple leakage localization and leak size estimation in water networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, N.; Habibi, H.; Hurkens, C.A.J.; Klabbers, M.D.; Tijsseling, A.S.; Eijndhoven, van S.J.L.

    2012-01-01

    Water distribution networks experience considerable losses due to leakage, often at multiple locations simultaneously. Leakage detection and localization based on sensor placement and online pressure monitoring could be fast and economical. Using the difference between estimated and measured

  2. Size Estimation of Non-Cooperative Data Collections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khelghati, Mohammadreza; Hiemstra, Djoerd; van Keulen, Maurice

    2012-01-01

    With the increasing amount of data in deep web sources (hidden from general search engines behind web forms), ac- cessing this data has gained more attention. In the algo- rithms applied for this purpose, it is the knowledge of a data source size that enables the algorithms to make accurate de-

  3. Radiographic Estimation of the Location and Size of kidneys in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Radiography, Location, Kidney size, Local dogs. The kidneys of dogs and cats are located retroperitoneally (Bjorling, 1993). Visualization of the kidneys on radiographs is possible due to the contrast provided by the perirenal fat (Grandage, 1975). However, this perirenal fat rarely covers the ventral surface of the ...

  4. Ab initio estimates of the size of the observable universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, Don N.

    2011-01-01

    When one combines multiverse predictions by Bousso, Hall, and Nomura for the observed age and size of the universe in terms of the proton and electron charge and masses with anthropic predictions of Carter, Carr, and Rees for these masses in terms of the charge, one gets that the age of the universe should be roughly the inverse 64th power, and the cosmological constant should be around the 128th power, of the proton charge. Combining these with a further renormalization group argument gives a single approximate equation for the proton charge, with no continuous adjustable or observed parameters, and with a solution that is within 8% of the observed value. Using this solution gives large logarithms for the age and size of the universe and for the cosmological constant that agree with the observed values within 17%

  5. Ab initio estimates of the size of the observable universe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, Don N., E-mail: profdonpage@gmail.com [Department of Physics, 4-183 CCIS, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E1 Canada (Canada)

    2011-09-01

    When one combines multiverse predictions by Bousso, Hall, and Nomura for the observed age and size of the universe in terms of the proton and electron charge and masses with anthropic predictions of Carter, Carr, and Rees for these masses in terms of the charge, one gets that the age of the universe should be roughly the inverse 64th power, and the cosmological constant should be around the 128th power, of the proton charge. Combining these with a further renormalization group argument gives a single approximate equation for the proton charge, with no continuous adjustable or observed parameters, and with a solution that is within 8% of the observed value. Using this solution gives large logarithms for the age and size of the universe and for the cosmological constant that agree with the observed values within 17%.

  6. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  7. Prey detection and prey capture in copepod nauplii

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruno, Eleonora; Borg, Marc Andersen; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Copepod nauplii are either ambush feeders that feed on motile prey or they produce a feeding current that entrains prey cells. It is unclear how ambush and feeding-current feeding nauplii perceive and capture prey. Attack jumps in ambush feeding nauplii should not be feasible at low Reynolds...... (Temora longicornis). We demonstrate that the ambush feeders both detect motile prey remotely. Prey detection elicits an attack jump, but the jump is not directly towards the prey, such as has been described for adult copepods. Rather, the nauplius jumps past the prey and sets up an intermittent feeding...

  8. Audiovisual Interval Size Estimation Is Associated with Early Musical Training.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Kathryn Abel

    Full Text Available Although pitch is a fundamental attribute of auditory perception, substantial individual differences exist in our ability to perceive differences in pitch. Little is known about how these individual differences in the auditory modality might affect crossmodal processes such as audiovisual perception. In this study, we asked whether individual differences in pitch perception might affect audiovisual perception, as it relates to age of onset and number of years of musical training. Fifty-seven subjects made subjective ratings of interval size when given point-light displays of audio, visual, and audiovisual stimuli of sung intervals. Audiovisual stimuli were divided into congruent and incongruent (audiovisual-mismatched stimuli. Participants' ratings correlated strongly with interval size in audio-only, visual-only, and audiovisual-congruent conditions. In the audiovisual-incongruent condition, ratings correlated more with audio than with visual stimuli, particularly for subjects who had better pitch perception abilities and higher nonverbal IQ scores. To further investigate the effects of age of onset and length of musical training, subjects were divided into musically trained and untrained groups. Results showed that among subjects with musical training, the degree to which participants' ratings correlated with auditory interval size during incongruent audiovisual perception was correlated with both nonverbal IQ and age of onset of musical training. After partialing out nonverbal IQ, pitch discrimination thresholds were no longer associated with incongruent audio scores, whereas age of onset of musical training remained associated with incongruent audio scores. These findings invite future research on the developmental effects of musical training, particularly those relating to the process of audiovisual perception.

  9. Audiovisual Interval Size Estimation Is Associated with Early Musical Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Mary Kathryn; Li, H Charles; Russo, Frank A; Schlaug, Gottfried; Loui, Psyche

    2016-01-01

    Although pitch is a fundamental attribute of auditory perception, substantial individual differences exist in our ability to perceive differences in pitch. Little is known about how these individual differences in the auditory modality might affect crossmodal processes such as audiovisual perception. In this study, we asked whether individual differences in pitch perception might affect audiovisual perception, as it relates to age of onset and number of years of musical training. Fifty-seven subjects made subjective ratings of interval size when given point-light displays of audio, visual, and audiovisual stimuli of sung intervals. Audiovisual stimuli were divided into congruent and incongruent (audiovisual-mismatched) stimuli. Participants' ratings correlated strongly with interval size in audio-only, visual-only, and audiovisual-congruent conditions. In the audiovisual-incongruent condition, ratings correlated more with audio than with visual stimuli, particularly for subjects who had better pitch perception abilities and higher nonverbal IQ scores. To further investigate the effects of age of onset and length of musical training, subjects were divided into musically trained and untrained groups. Results showed that among subjects with musical training, the degree to which participants' ratings correlated with auditory interval size during incongruent audiovisual perception was correlated with both nonverbal IQ and age of onset of musical training. After partialing out nonverbal IQ, pitch discrimination thresholds were no longer associated with incongruent audio scores, whereas age of onset of musical training remained associated with incongruent audio scores. These findings invite future research on the developmental effects of musical training, particularly those relating to the process of audiovisual perception.

  10. Size-based estimation of the status of fish stocks: simulation analysis and comparison with age-based estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    , were investigated and our estimations were compared to the ICES advice. Only size-specific catch data were used, in order to emulate data limited situations. The simulation analysis reveals that the status of the stock, i.e. F/Fmsy, is estimated more accurately than the fishing mortality F itself....... Specific knowledge of the natural mortality improves the estimation more than having information about all other life history parameters. Our approach gives, at least qualitatively, an estimated stock status which is similar to the results of an age-based assessment. Since our approach only uses size...

  11. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Guided wave crack detection and size estimation in stiffened structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhuiyan, Md Yeasin; Faisal Haider, Mohammad; Poddar, Banibrata; Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2018-03-01

    Structural health monitoring (SHM) and nondestructive evaluation (NDE) deals with the nondestructive inspection of defects, corrosion, leaks in engineering structures by using ultrasonic guided waves. In the past, simplistic structures were often considered for analyzing the guided wave interaction with the defects. In this study, we focused on more realistic and relatively complicated structure for detecting any defect by using a non-contact sensing approach. A plate with a stiffener was considered for analyzing the guided wave interactions. Piezoelectric wafer active transducers were used to produce excitation in the structures. The excitation generated the multimodal guided waves (aka Lamb waves) that propagate in the plate with stiffener. The presence of stiffener in the plate generated scattered waves. The direct wave and the additional scattered waves from the stiffener were experimentally recorded and studied. These waves were considered as a pristine case in this research. A fine horizontal semi-circular crack was manufactured by using electric discharge machining in the same stiffener. The presence of crack in the stiffener produces additional scattered waves as well as trapped waves. These scattered waves and trapped wave modes from the cracked stiffener were experimentally measured by using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). These waves were analyzed and compared with that from the pristine case. The analyses suggested that both size and shape of the horizontal crack may be predicted from the pattern of the scattered waves. Different features (reflection, transmission, and mode-conversion) of the scattered wave signals are analyzed. We found direct transmission feature for incident A0 wave mode and modeconversion feature for incident S0 mode are most suitable for detecting the crack in the stiffener. The reflection feature may give a better idea of sizing the crack.

  13. Prey Selection of Scandinavian Wolves: Single Large or Several Small?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Håkan Sand

    Full Text Available Research on large predator-prey interactions are often limited to the predators' primary prey, with the potential for prey switching in systems with multiple ungulate species rarely investigated. We evaluated wolf (Canis lupus prey selection at two different spatial scales, i.e., inter- and intra-territorial, using data from 409 ungulate wolf-kills in an expanding wolf population in Scandinavia. This expansion includes a change from a one-prey into a two-prey system with variable densities of one large-sized ungulate; moose (Alces alces and one small-sized ungulate; roe deer (Capreolus capreolus. Among wolf territories, the proportion of roe deer in wolf kills was related to both pack size and roe deer density, but not to moose density. Pairs of wolves killed a higher proportion of roe deer than did packs, and wolves switched to kill more roe deer as their density increased above a 1:1 ratio in relation to the availability of the two species. At the intra-territorial level, wolves again responded to changes in roe deer density in their prey selection whereas we found no effect of snow depth, time during winter, or other predator-related factors on the wolves' choice to kill moose or roe deer. Moose population density was only weakly related to intra-territorial prey selection. Our results show that the functional response of wolves on moose, the species hitherto considered as the main prey, was strongly dependent on the density of a smaller, alternative, ungulate prey. The impact of wolf predation on the prey species community is therefore likely to change with the composition of the multi-prey species community along with the geographical expansion of the wolf population.

  14. Prey Selection of Scandinavian Wolves: Single Large or Several Small?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eklund, Ann; Zimmermann, Barbara; Wikenros, Camilla; Wabakken, Petter

    2016-01-01

    Research on large predator-prey interactions are often limited to the predators’ primary prey, with the potential for prey switching in systems with multiple ungulate species rarely investigated. We evaluated wolf (Canis lupus) prey selection at two different spatial scales, i.e., inter- and intra-territorial, using data from 409 ungulate wolf-kills in an expanding wolf population in Scandinavia. This expansion includes a change from a one-prey into a two-prey system with variable densities of one large-sized ungulate; moose (Alces alces) and one small-sized ungulate; roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Among wolf territories, the proportion of roe deer in wolf kills was related to both pack size and roe deer density, but not to moose density. Pairs of wolves killed a higher proportion of roe deer than did packs, and wolves switched to kill more roe deer as their density increased above a 1:1 ratio in relation to the availability of the two species. At the intra-territorial level, wolves again responded to changes in roe deer density in their prey selection whereas we found no effect of snow depth, time during winter, or other predator-related factors on the wolves’ choice to kill moose or roe deer. Moose population density was only weakly related to intra-territorial prey selection. Our results show that the functional response of wolves on moose, the species hitherto considered as the main prey, was strongly dependent on the density of a smaller, alternative, ungulate prey. The impact of wolf predation on the prey species community is therefore likely to change with the composition of the multi-prey species community along with the geographical expansion of the wolf population. PMID:28030549

  15. Prey Selection of Scandinavian Wolves: Single Large or Several Small?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, Håkan; Eklund, Ann; Zimmermann, Barbara; Wikenros, Camilla; Wabakken, Petter

    2016-01-01

    Research on large predator-prey interactions are often limited to the predators' primary prey, with the potential for prey switching in systems with multiple ungulate species rarely investigated. We evaluated wolf (Canis lupus) prey selection at two different spatial scales, i.e., inter- and intra-territorial, using data from 409 ungulate wolf-kills in an expanding wolf population in Scandinavia. This expansion includes a change from a one-prey into a two-prey system with variable densities of one large-sized ungulate; moose (Alces alces) and one small-sized ungulate; roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Among wolf territories, the proportion of roe deer in wolf kills was related to both pack size and roe deer density, but not to moose density. Pairs of wolves killed a higher proportion of roe deer than did packs, and wolves switched to kill more roe deer as their density increased above a 1:1 ratio in relation to the availability of the two species. At the intra-territorial level, wolves again responded to changes in roe deer density in their prey selection whereas we found no effect of snow depth, time during winter, or other predator-related factors on the wolves' choice to kill moose or roe deer. Moose population density was only weakly related to intra-territorial prey selection. Our results show that the functional response of wolves on moose, the species hitherto considered as the main prey, was strongly dependent on the density of a smaller, alternative, ungulate prey. The impact of wolf predation on the prey species community is therefore likely to change with the composition of the multi-prey species community along with the geographical expansion of the wolf population.

  16. Body size estimation of self and others in females varying in BMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Anne; Geuss, Michael N; Mölbert, Simone C; Giel, Katrin E; Streuber, Stephan; Romero, Javier; Black, Michael J; Mohler, Betty J

    2018-01-01

    Previous literature suggests that a disturbed ability to accurately identify own body size may contribute to overweight. Here, we investigated the influence of personal body size, indexed by body mass index (BMI), on body size estimation in a non-clinical population of females varying in BMI. We attempted to disentangle general biases in body size estimates and attitudinal influences by manipulating whether participants believed the body stimuli (personalized avatars with realistic weight variations) represented their own body or that of another person. Our results show that the accuracy of own body size estimation is predicted by personal BMI, such that participants with lower BMI underestimated their body size and participants with higher BMI overestimated their body size. Further, participants with higher BMI were less likely to notice the same percentage of weight gain than participants with lower BMI. Importantly, these results were only apparent when participants were judging a virtual body that was their own identity (Experiment 1), but not when they estimated the size of a body with another identity and the same underlying body shape (Experiment 2a). The different influences of BMI on accuracy of body size estimation and sensitivity to weight change for self and other identity suggests that effects of BMI on visual body size estimation are self-specific and not generalizable to other bodies.

  17. Body size estimation of self and others in females varying in BMI.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Thaler

    Full Text Available Previous literature suggests that a disturbed ability to accurately identify own body size may contribute to overweight. Here, we investigated the influence of personal body size, indexed by body mass index (BMI, on body size estimation in a non-clinical population of females varying in BMI. We attempted to disentangle general biases in body size estimates and attitudinal influences by manipulating whether participants believed the body stimuli (personalized avatars with realistic weight variations represented their own body or that of another person. Our results show that the accuracy of own body size estimation is predicted by personal BMI, such that participants with lower BMI underestimated their body size and participants with higher BMI overestimated their body size. Further, participants with higher BMI were less likely to notice the same percentage of weight gain than participants with lower BMI. Importantly, these results were only apparent when participants were judging a virtual body that was their own identity (Experiment 1, but not when they estimated the size of a body with another identity and the same underlying body shape (Experiment 2a. The different influences of BMI on accuracy of body size estimation and sensitivity to weight change for self and other identity suggests that effects of BMI on visual body size estimation are self-specific and not generalizable to other bodies.

  18. Shear-wave elastography contributes to accurate tumour size estimation when assessing small breast cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullen, R.; Thompson, J.M.; Moussa, O.; Vinnicombe, S.; Evans, A.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To assess whether the size of peritumoural stiffness (PTS) on shear-wave elastography (SWE) for small primary breast cancers (≤15 mm) was associated with size discrepancies between grey-scale ultrasound (GSUS) and final histological size and whether the addition of PTS size to GSUS size might result in more accurate tumour size estimation when compared to final histological size. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 86 consecutive patients between August 2011 and February 2013 who underwent breast-conserving surgery for tumours of size ≤15 mm at ultrasound was carried out. The size of PTS stiffness was compared to mean GSUS size, mean histological size, and the extent of size discrepancy between GSUS and histology. PTS size and GSUS were combined and compared to the final histological size. Results: PTS of >3 mm was associated with a larger mean final histological size (16 versus 11.3 mm, p < 0.001). PTS size of >3 mm was associated with a higher frequency of underestimation of final histological size by GSUS of >5 mm (63% versus 18%, p < 0.001). The combination of PTS and GSUS size led to accurate estimation of the final histological size (p = 0.03). The size of PTS was not associated with margin involvement (p = 0.27). Conclusion: PTS extending beyond 3 mm from the grey-scale abnormality is significantly associated with underestimation of tumour size of >5 mm for small invasive breast cancers. Taking into account the size of PTS also led to accurate estimation of the final histological size. Further studies are required to assess the relationship of the extent of SWE stiffness and margin status. - Highlights: • Peritumoural stiffness of greater than 3 mm was associated with larger tumour size. • Underestimation of tumour size by ultrasound was associated with peri-tumoural stiffness size. • Combining peri-tumoural stiffness size to ultrasound produced accurate tumour size estimation

  19. Why liquid displacement methods are sometimes wrong in estimating the pore-size distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbertsen-Abrahamse, A.J.; Boom, R.M.; Padt, van der A.

    2004-01-01

    The liquid displacement method is a commonly used method to determine the pore size distribution of micro- and ultrafiltration membranes. One of the assumptions for the calculation of the pore sizes is that the pores are parallel and thus are not interconnected. To show that the estimated pore size

  20. Impact of Base Functional Component Types on Software Functional Size based Effort Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Gencel, Cigdem; Buglione, Luigi

    2008-01-01

    Software effort estimation is still a significant challenge for software management. Although Functional Size Measurement (FSM) methods have been standardized and have become widely used by the software organizations, the relationship between functional size and development effort still needs further investigation. Most of the studies focus on the project cost drivers and consider total software functional size as the primary input to estimation models. In this study, we investigate whether u...

  1. Association between inaccurate estimation of body size and obesity in schoolchildren

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa da Cunha Feio Costa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of inaccurate estimation of own body size among Brazilian schoolchildren of both sexes aged 7-10 years, and to test whether overweight/obesity; excess body fat and central obesity are associated with inaccuracy. Methods: Accuracy of body size estimation was assessed using the Figure Rating Scale for Brazilian Children. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyze associations. Results: The overall prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation was 76%, with 34% of the children underestimating their body size and 42% overestimating their body size. Obesity measured by body mass index was associated with underestimation of body size in both sexes, while central obesity was only associated with overestimation of body size among girls. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest there is a high prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation and that inaccurate estimation is associated with obesity. Accurate estimation of own body size is important among obese schoolchildren because it may be the first step towards adopting healthy lifestyle behaviors.

  2. Production of live prey for marine fish larvae

    OpenAIRE

    Kraul, S

    1989-01-01

    Tropical marine fish larvae vary in their requirements for live planktonic food. Selection of live prey species for culture depends on larval size and larval tolerance of water quality. This report describes some of the cultured prey species, and their uses and limits as effective food for fish larvae. Methods are presented for the culture of phytoplankton, rotifers, copepods, and other live feeds.

  3. Estimating particle number size distributions from multi-instrument observations with Kalman Filtering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viskari, T.

    2012-07-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles have several important effects on the environment and human society. The exact impact of aerosol particles is largely determined by their particle size distributions. However, no single instrument is able to measure the whole range of the particle size distribution. Estimating a particle size distribution from multiple simultaneous measurements remains a challenge in aerosol physical research. Current methods to combine different measurements require assumptions concerning the overlapping measurement ranges and have difficulties in accounting for measurement uncertainties. In this thesis, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is presented as a promising method to estimate particle number size distributions from multiple simultaneous measurements. The particle number size distribution estimated by EKF includes information from prior particle number size distributions as propagated by a dynamical model and is based on the reliabilities of the applied information sources. Known physical processes and dynamically evolving error covariances constrain the estimate both over time and particle size. The method was tested with measurements from Differential Mobility Particle Sizer (DMPS), Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) and nephelometer. The particle number concentration was chosen as the state of interest. The initial EKF implementation presented here includes simplifications, yet the results are positive and the estimate successfully incorporated information from the chosen instruments. For particle sizes smaller than 4 micrometers, the estimate fits the available measurements and smooths the particle number size distribution over both time and particle diameter. The estimate has difficulties with particles larger than 4 micrometers due to issues with both measurements and the dynamical model in that particle size range. The EKF implementation appears to reduce the impact of measurement noise on the estimate, but has a delayed reaction to sudden

  4. Sequential assessment of prey through the use of multiple sensory cues by an eavesdropping bat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Rachel A.; Schnelle, Tanja; Kalko, Elisabeth K. V.; Bunge, Thomas; Bernal, Ximena E.

    2012-06-01

    Predators are often confronted with a broad diversity of potential prey. They rely on cues associated with prey quality and palatability to optimize their hunting success and to avoid consuming toxic prey. Here, we investigate a predator's ability to assess prey cues during capture, handling, and consumption when confronted with conflicting information about prey quality. We used advertisement calls of a preferred prey item (the túngara frog) to attract fringe-lipped bats, Trachops cirrhosus, then offered palatable, poisonous, and chemically manipulated anurans as prey. Advertisement calls elicited an attack response, but as bats approached, they used additional sensory cues in a sequential manner to update their information about prey size and palatability. While both palatable and poisonous small anurans were readily captured, large poisonous toads were approached but not contacted suggesting the use of echolocation for assessment of prey size at close range. Once prey was captured, bats used chemical cues to make final, post-capture decisions about whether to consume the prey. Bats dropped small, poisonous toads as well as palatable frogs coated in toad toxins either immediately or shortly after capture. Our study suggests that echolocation and chemical cues obtained at close range supplement information obtained from acoustic cues at long range. Updating information about prey quality minimizes the occurrence of costly errors and may be advantageous in tracking temporal and spatial fluctuations of prey and exploiting novel food sources. These findings emphasize the sequential, complex nature of prey assessment that may allow exploratory and flexible hunting behaviors.

  5. Functional responses of human hunters to their prey - why harvest statistics may not always reflect changes in prey population abundance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahlert, Johnny Abildgaard; Fox, Anthony David; Heldbjerg, Henning

    pigeon Columba palumbus, coot Fulica atra, grey partridge Perdix perdix, roe deer Capreolus capreolus and brown hare Lepus europaeus in Denmark. If we consider hunting a form of predator-prey interaction, the annual kill can be viewed as a predator functional response to prey population size. Convergence...

  6. Models of prey capture in larval fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drost, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    The food uptake of larval carp and pike is described from high speed movies with synchronous lateral and ventral views.

    During prey intake by larval fishes the velocities of the created suction flow are high relative to their own size: 0.3 m/s for carp larvae of 6

  7. Mean size estimation yields left-side bias: Role of attention on perceptual averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kuei-An; Yeh, Su-Ling

    2017-11-01

    The human visual system can estimate mean size of a set of items effectively; however, little is known about whether information on each visual field contributes equally to the mean size estimation. In this study, we examined whether a left-side bias (LSB)-perceptual judgment tends to depend more heavily on left visual field's inputs-affects mean size estimation. Participants were instructed to estimate the mean size of 16 spots. In half of the trials, the mean size of the spots on the left side was larger than that on the right side (the left-larger condition) and vice versa (the right-larger condition). Our results illustrated an LSB: A larger estimated mean size was found in the left-larger condition than in the right-larger condition (Experiment 1), and the LSB vanished when participants' attention was effectively cued to the right side (Experiment 2b). Furthermore, the magnitude of LSB increased with stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA), when spots on the left side were presented earlier than the right side. In contrast, the LSB vanished and then induced a reversed effect with SOA when spots on the right side were presented earlier (Experiment 3). This study offers the first piece of evidence suggesting that LSB does have a significant influence on mean size estimation of a group of items, which is induced by a leftward attentional bias that enhances the prior entry effect on the left side.

  8. Can rarefaction be used to estimate song repertoire size in birds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen R. PESHEK, Daniel T. BLUMSTEIN

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Song repertoire size is the number of distinct syllables, phrases, or song types produced by an individual or population. Repertoire size estimation is particularly difficult for species that produce highly variable songs and those that produce many song types. Estimating repertoire size is important for ecological and evolutionary studies of speciation, studies of sexual selection, as well as studies of how species may adapt their songs to various acoustic environments. There are several methods to estimate repertoire size, however prior studies discovered that all but a full numerical count of song types might have substantial inaccuracies associated with them. We evaluated a somewhat novel approach to estimate repertoire size—rarefaction; a technique ecologists use to measure species diversity on individual and population levels. Using the syllables within American robins’ Turdus migratorius repertoire, we compared the most commonly used techniques of estimating repertoires to the results of a rarefaction analysis. American robins have elaborate and unique songs with few syllables shared between individuals, and there is no evidence that robins mimic their neighbors. Thus, they are an ideal system in which to compare techniques. We found that the rarefaction technique results resembled that of the numerical count, and were better than two alternative methods (behavioral accumulation curves, and capture-recapture to estimate syllable repertoire size. Future estimates of repertoire size, particularly in vocally complex species, may benefit from using rarefaction techniques when numerical counts are unable to be performed [Current Zoology 57 (3: 300–306, 2011].

  9. Population and prey of the Bengal Tiger Panthera tigris tigris (Linnaeus, 1758 (Carnivora: Felidae in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M.H. Khan

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The results from intensive small scale surveys are often difficult to extrapolate to wider spatial scales, yet an understanding at such scales is critical for assessing the minimum densities and populations of rare and wide ranging species. In this paper, the minimum size of population and minimum density estimates of Bengal Tigers Panthera tigris tigris and its prey were conducted from 2005 to 2007 using camera traps for 90 days and using distance sampling surveys for over 200 days, respectively. The results were extrapolated from the core study area in Katka-Kochikhali, southeastern Sundarbans, to five additional sites using indices of abundance. With the use of 10 camera-traps at 15 trap-points, field data provided a total of 829 photos, including seven photos of five individual tigers. A total of 5.0 (SE = 0.98 tigers (adults and sub-adults are thus estimated in the core area with an estimated density of 4.8 tigers/100km2. Distance sampling surveys conducted on large mammalian prey species obtained an overall density estimate of 27.9 individuals/km2 and a biomass density of 1,037kg/km2. Indices of abundance were obtained by using tiger track sighting rates (number of tracks/km of riverbank and the sighting rates of the prey species (number of prey/km of riverbank in the core area and in five additional sites across the region. The densities of tiger tracks and sighting rates of prey were strongly correlated suggesting a wide scale relationship between predator and prey in the region. By combining the estimates of absolute density with indices of abundance, an average of 3.7 tigers/100km2 across the region is estimated, which given an area of 5,770km2, predicts a minimum of approximately 200 tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

  10. Prey detection and prey capture in copepod nauplii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Bruno

    Full Text Available Copepod nauplii are either ambush feeders that feed on motile prey or they produce a feeding current that entrains prey cells. It is unclear how ambush and feeding-current feeding nauplii perceive and capture prey. Attack jumps in ambush feeding nauplii should not be feasible at low Reynolds numbers due to the thick viscous boundary layer surrounding the attacking nauplius. We use high-speed video to describe the detection and capture of phytoplankton prey by the nauplii of two ambush feeding species (Acartia tonsa and Oithona davisae and by the nauplii of one feeding-current feeding species (Temora longicornis. We demonstrate that the ambush feeders both detect motile prey remotely. Prey detection elicits an attack jump, but the jump is not directly towards the prey, such as has been described for adult copepods. Rather, the nauplius jumps past the prey and sets up an intermittent feeding current that pulls in the prey from behind towards the mouth. The feeding-current feeding nauplius detects prey arriving in the feeding current but only when the prey is intercepted by the setae on the feeding appendages. This elicits an altered motion pattern of the feeding appendages that draws in the prey.

  11. Estimating the size of non-observed economy in Croatia using the MIMIC approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vjekoslav Klarić

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper gives a quick overview of the approaches that have been used in the research of shadow economy, starting with the definitions of the terms “shadow economy” and “non-observed economy”, with the accent on the ISTAT/Eurostat framework. Several methods for estimating the size of the shadow economy and the non-observed economy are then presented. The emphasis is placed on the MIMIC approach, one of the methods used to estimate the size of the nonobserved economy. After a glance at the theory behind it, the MIMIC model is then applied to the Croatian economy. Considering the described characteristics of different methods, a previous estimate of the size of the non-observed economy in Croatia is chosen to provide benchmark values for the MIMIC model. Using those, the estimates of the size of non-observed economy in Croatia during the period 1998-2009 are obtained.

  12. Estimation of mean grain size of seafloor sediments using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    De, C.; Chakraborty, B.

    The feasibility of an artificial neural network based approach is investigated to estimate the values of mean grain size of seafloor sediments using four dominant echo features, extracted from acoustic backscatter data. The acoustic backscatter data...

  13. Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

    2003-06-01

    African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

  14. Automated nodule location and size estimation using a multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian filtering approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirapatnakul, Artit C; Fotin, Sergei V; Reeves, Anthony P; Biancardi, Alberto M; Yankelevitz, David F; Henschke, Claudia I

    2009-01-01

    Estimation of nodule location and size is an important pre-processing step in some nodule segmentation algorithms to determine the size and location of the region of interest. Ideally, such estimation methods will consistently find the same nodule location regardless of where the the seed point (provided either manually or by a nodule detection algorithm) is placed relative to the "true" center of the nodule, and the size should be a reasonable estimate of the true nodule size. We developed a method that estimates nodule location and size using multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) filtering. Nodule candidates near a given seed point are found by searching for blob-like regions with high filter response. The candidates are then pruned according to filter response and location, and the remaining candidates are sorted by size and the largest candidate selected. This method was compared to a previously published template-based method. The methods were evaluated on the basis of stability of the estimated nodule location to changes in the initial seed point and how well the size estimates agreed with volumes determined by a semi-automated nodule segmentation method. The LoG method exhibited better stability to changes in the seed point, with 93% of nodules having the same estimated location even when the seed point was altered, compared to only 52% of nodules for the template-based method. Both methods also showed good agreement with sizes determined by a nodule segmentation method, with an average relative size difference of 5% and -5% for the LoG and template-based methods respectively.

  15. Comparative growth and development of spiders reared on live and dead prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yu; Zhang, Fan; Gui, Shaolan; Qiao, Huping; Hose, Grant C

    2013-01-01

    Scavenging (feeding on dead prey) has been demonstrated across a number of spider families, yet the implications of feeding on dead prey for the growth and development of individuals and population is unknown. In this study we compare the growth, development, and predatory activity of two species of spiders that were fed on live and dead prey. Pardosa astrigera (Lycosidae) and Hylyphantes graminicola (Lyniphiidae) were fed live or dead fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster. The survival of P. astrigera and H. graminicola was not affected by prey type. The duration of late instars of P. astrigera fed dead prey were longer and mature spiders had less protein content than those fed live prey, whereas there were no differences in the rate of H. graminicola development, but the mass of mature spiders fed dead prey was greater than those fed live prey. Predation rates by P. astrigera did not differ between the two prey types, but H. graminicola had a higher rate of predation on dead than alive prey, presumably because the dead flies were easier to catch and handle. Overall, the growth, development and reproduction of H. graminicola reared with dead flies was better than those reared on live flies, yet for the larger P. astrigera, dead prey may suit smaller instars but mature spiders may be best maintained with live prey. We have clearly demonstrated that dead prey may be suitable for rearing spiders, although the success of the spiders fed such prey appears size- and species specific.

  16. Echolocating bats cry out loud to detect their prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annemarie Surlykke

    Full Text Available Echolocating bats have successfully exploited a broad range of habitats and prey. Much research has demonstrated how time-frequency structure of echolocation calls of different species is adapted to acoustic constraints of habitats and foraging behaviors. However, the intensity of bat calls has been largely neglected although intensity is a key factor determining echolocation range and interactions with other bats and prey. Differences in detection range, in turn, are thought to constitute a mechanism promoting resource partitioning among bats, which might be particularly important for the species-rich bat assemblages in the tropics. Here we present data on emitted intensities for 11 species from 5 families of insectivorous bats from Panamá hunting in open or background cluttered space or over water. We recorded all bats in their natural habitat in the field using a multi-microphone array coupled with photographic methods to assess the bats' position in space to estimate emitted call intensities. All species emitted intense search signals. Output intensity was reduced when closing in on background by 4-7 dB per halving of distance. Source levels of open space and edge space foragers (Emballonuridae, Mormoopidae, Molossidae, and Vespertilionidae ranged between 122-134 dB SPL. The two Noctilionidae species hunting over water emitted the loudest signals recorded so far for any bat with average source levels of ca. 137 dB SPL and maximum levels above 140 dB SPL. In spite of this ten-fold variation in emitted intensity, estimates indicated, surprisingly, that detection distances for prey varied far less; bats emitting the highest intensities also emitted the highest frequencies, which are severely attenuated in air. Thus, our results suggest that bats within a local assemblage compensate for frequency dependent attenuation by adjusting the emitted intensity to achieve comparable detection distances for prey across species. We conclude that for bats

  17. Sample size for estimation of the Pearson correlation coefficient in cherry tomato tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Giacomini Sari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the required sample size for estimation of the Pearson coefficient of correlation between cherry tomato variables. Two uniformity tests were set up in a protected environment in the spring/summer of 2014. The observed variables in each plant were mean fruit length, mean fruit width, mean fruit weight, number of bunches, number of fruits per bunch, number of fruits, and total weight of fruits, with calculation of the Pearson correlation matrix between them. Sixty eight sample sizes were planned for one greenhouse and 48 for another, with the initial sample size of 10 plants, and the others were obtained by adding five plants. For each planned sample size, 3000 estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient were obtained through bootstrap re-samplings with replacement. The sample size for each correlation coefficient was determined when the 95% confidence interval amplitude value was less than or equal to 0.4. Obtaining estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient with high precision is difficult for parameters with a weak linear relation. Accordingly, a larger sample size is necessary to estimate them. Linear relations involving variables dealing with size and number of fruits per plant have less precision. To estimate the coefficient of correlation between productivity variables of cherry tomato, with a confidence interval of 95% equal to 0.4, it is necessary to sample 275 plants in a 250m² greenhouse, and 200 plants in a 200m² greenhouse.

  18. Formative evaluation of a mobile liquid portion size estimation interface for people with varying literacy skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudry, Beenish Moalla; Connelly, Kay; Siek, Katie A; Welch, Janet L

    2013-12-01

    Chronically ill people, especially those with low literacy skills, often have difficulty estimating portion sizes of liquids to help them stay within their recommended fluid limits. There is a plethora of mobile applications that can help people monitor their nutritional intake but unfortunately these applications require the user to have high literacy and numeracy skills for portion size recording. In this paper, we present two studies in which the low- and the high-fidelity versions of a portion size estimation interface, designed using the cognitive strategies adults employ for portion size estimation during diet recall studies, was evaluated by a chronically ill population with varying literacy skills. The low fidelity interface was evaluated by ten patients who were all able to accurately estimate portion sizes of various liquids with the interface. Eighteen participants did an in situ evaluation of the high-fidelity version incorporated in a diet and fluid monitoring mobile application for 6 weeks. Although the accuracy of the estimation cannot be confirmed in the second study but the participants who actively interacted with the interface showed better health outcomes by the end of the study. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for designing the next iteration of an accurate and low literacy-accessible liquid portion size estimation mobile interface.

  19. ON ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING OF THE GRAIN SIZE DISTRIBUTION BY THE SALTYKOV METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuri Gulbin

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of validity of unfolding the grain size distribution with the back-substitution method. Due to the ill-conditioned nature of unfolding matrices, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy and precision of parameter estimation and to verify the possibility of expected grain size distribution testing on the basis of intersection size histogram data. In order to review these questions, the computer modeling was used to compare size distributions obtained stereologically with those possessed by three-dimensional model aggregates of grains with a specified shape and random size. Results of simulations are reported and ways of improving the conventional stereological techniques are suggested. It is shown that new improvements in estimating and testing procedures enable grain size distributions to be unfolded more efficiently.

  20. The international food unit: a new measurement aid that can improve portion size estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucher, T; Weltert, M; Rollo, M E; Smith, S P; Jia, W; Collins, C E; Sun, M

    2017-09-12

    Portion size education tools, aids and interventions can be effective in helping prevent weight gain. However consumers have difficulties in estimating food portion sizes and are confused by inconsistencies in measurement units and terminologies currently used. Visual cues are an important mediator of portion size estimation, but standardized measurement units are required. In the current study, we present a new food volume estimation tool and test the ability of young adults to accurately quantify food volumes. The International Food Unit™ (IFU™) is a 4x4x4 cm cube (64cm 3 ), subdivided into eight 2 cm sub-cubes for estimating smaller food volumes. Compared with currently used measures such as cups and spoons, the IFU™ standardizes estimation of food volumes with metric measures. The IFU™ design is based on binary dimensional increments and the cubic shape facilitates portion size education and training, memory and recall, and computer processing which is binary in nature. The performance of the IFU™ was tested in a randomized between-subject experiment (n = 128 adults, 66 men) that estimated volumes of 17 foods using four methods; the IFU™ cube, a deformable modelling clay cube, a household measuring cup or no aid (weight estimation). Estimation errors were compared between groups using Kruskall-Wallis tests and post-hoc comparisons. Estimation errors differed significantly between groups (H(3) = 28.48, p studies should investigate whether the IFU™ can facilitate portion size training and whether portion size education using the IFU™ is effective and sustainable without the aid. A 3-dimensional IFU™ could serve as a reference object for estimating food volume.

  1. Short Communication Estimation of size at first maturity in two South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Communication Estimation of size at first maturity in two South African coral species. ... African Journal of Marine Science ... PH Montoya-Maya, AHH Macdonald, MH Schleyer ... to differentiate juveniles from adult sizes of corals, an important factor for assessing the condition of scleractinian communities in reefs. Here ...

  2. Facing the estimation of effective population size based on molecular markers: comparison of estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen; Verrier, Etienne; Hospital, Frederic

    an increase in the variability of values over time. The distance from the mean and the median to the true Ne increased over time too. This was caused by the fixation of alleles through time due to genetic drift and the changes in the distribution of allele frequencies. We compared the three estimators of Ne...

  3. Modeling grain-size dependent bias in estimating forest area: a regional application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    A better understanding of scaling-up effects on estimating important landscape characteristics (e.g. forest percentage) is critical for improving ecological applications over large areas. This study illustrated effects of changing grain sizes on regional forest estimates in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan of the USA using 30-m land-cover maps (1992 and 2001)...

  4. Improving accuracy of portion-size estimations through a stimulus equivalence paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausman, Nicole L; Borrero, John C; Fisher, Alyssa; Kahng, SungWoo

    2014-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity continues to increase in the United States (Gordon-Larsen, The, & Adair, 2010). Obesity can be attributed, in part, to overconsumption of energy-dense foods. Given that overeating plays a role in the development of obesity, interventions that teach individuals to identify and consume appropriate portion sizes are warranted. Specifically, interventions that teach individuals to estimate portion sizes correctly without the use of aids may be critical to the success of nutrition education programs. The current study evaluated the use of a stimulus equivalence paradigm to teach 9 undergraduate students to estimate portion size accurately. Results suggested that the stimulus equivalence paradigm was effective in teaching participants to make accurate portion size estimations without aids, and improved accuracy was observed in maintenance sessions that were conducted 1 week after training. Furthermore, 5 of 7 participants estimated the target portion size of novel foods during extension sessions. These data extend existing research on teaching accurate portion-size estimations and may be applicable to populations who seek treatment (e.g., overweight or obese children and adults) to teach healthier eating habits. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  5. Mechanical work as a determinant of prey-handling behavior in the tokay gecko (Gekko gecko).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, C; Bertram, J E

    1997-01-01

    In this study an in vitro analysis of the force and mechanical work required to bite prey items of different size and physical character is combined with an in vivo analysis of prey-handling behavior in the tokay gecko (Gekko gecko). The force required to bite and the work of biting increase with prey size, but the rate of increase is prey specific, with crickets (Acheta domestica) requiring substantially more force and work per bite than larvae (Galleria mellonella and Manduca sexta) for all but the smallest prey. Prey-handling behavior is also prey specific. Geckos exert more bites per feeding event on small crickets than on small insect larvae, but the number of bites increases faster with prey mass for larvae than for crickets. Combination of the in vitro mechanical measurements with the in vivo behavior analysis allows the calculation of total mechanical work per feeding event and indicates that total work increases with prey size but that the difference between prey types is far less than predicted from the differences in structural properties of the prey. This occurs because the number of bites and work per bite relationships tend to cancel the differences in the total work necessary to process each prey type. Thus, when considering the effect of prey size, a 13-fold greater rate of increase in bite force and an 18-fold greater rate of increase of work per bit for crickets over larvae was partially compensated for by a threefold increase in the number of bites used on larvae relative to crickets. These results can be interpreted in two ways. The effect of mechanical work in feeding behavior suggests that the energetics of jaw adductor musculature could play a greater role in governing the feeding behavior of this lizard than has previously been expected. Alternatively, the scaling of work in feeding over a range of prey sizes suggests distinct differences in the geometric features of the prey that determine how they are processed.

  6. A Heuristic Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Size-Dependent Mobility of Nonuniform Sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldegiorgis, B. T.; Wu, F. C.; van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating the mechanism of bed sediment mobility is essential for modelling sediment dynamics. Despite the fact that many studies are carried out on this subject, they use complex mathematical formulations that are computationally expensive, and are often not easy for implementation. In order to present a simple and computationally efficient complement to detailed sediment mobility models, we developed a heuristic probabilistic approach to estimating the size-dependent mobilities of nonuniform sediment based on the pre- and post-entrainment particle size distributions (PSDs), assuming that the PSDs are lognormally distributed. The approach fits a lognormal probability density function (PDF) to the pre-entrainment PSD of bed sediment and uses the threshold particle size of incipient motion and the concept of sediment mixture to estimate the PSDs of the entrained sediment and post-entrainment bed sediment. The new approach is simple in physical sense and significantly reduces the complexity and computation time and resource required by detailed sediment mobility models. It is calibrated and validated with laboratory and field data by comparing to the size-dependent mobilities predicted with the existing empirical lognormal cumulative distribution function (CDF) approach. The novel features of the current approach are: (1) separating the entrained and non-entrained sediments by a threshold particle size, which is a modified critical particle size of incipient motion by accounting for the mixed-size effects, and (2) using the mixture-based pre- and post-entrainment PSDs to provide a continuous estimate of the size-dependent sediment mobility.

  7. A model to estimate the size of nanoparticle agglomerates in gas−solid fluidized beds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martín, Lilian de, E-mail: L.DeMartinMonton@tudelft.nl; Ommen, J. Ruud van [Delft University of Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering (Netherlands)

    2013-11-15

    The estimation of nanoparticle agglomerates’ size in fluidized beds remains an open challenge, mainly due to the difficulty of characterizing the inter-agglomerate van der Waals force. The current approach is to describe micron-sized nanoparticle agglomerates as micron-sized particles with 0.1–0.2-μm asperities. This simplification does not capture the influence of the particle size on the van der Waals attraction between agglomerates. In this paper, we propose a new description where the agglomerates are micron-sized particles with nanoparticles on the surface, acting as asperities. As opposed to previous models, here the van der Waals force between agglomerates decreases with an increase in the particle size. We have also included an additional force due to the hydrogen bond formation between the surfaces of hydrophilic and dry nanoparticles. The average size of the fluidized agglomerates has been estimated equating the attractive force obtained from this method to the weight of the individual agglomerates. The results have been compared to 54 experimental values, most of them collected from the literature. Our model approximates without a systematic error the size of most of the nanopowders, both in conventional and centrifugal fluidized beds, outperforming current models. Although simple, the model is able to capture the influence of the nanoparticle size, particle density, and Hamaker coefficient on the inter-agglomerate forces.

  8. A model to estimate the size of nanoparticle agglomerates in gas−solid fluidized beds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martín, Lilian de; Ommen, J. Ruud van

    2013-01-01

    The estimation of nanoparticle agglomerates’ size in fluidized beds remains an open challenge, mainly due to the difficulty of characterizing the inter-agglomerate van der Waals force. The current approach is to describe micron-sized nanoparticle agglomerates as micron-sized particles with 0.1–0.2-μm asperities. This simplification does not capture the influence of the particle size on the van der Waals attraction between agglomerates. In this paper, we propose a new description where the agglomerates are micron-sized particles with nanoparticles on the surface, acting as asperities. As opposed to previous models, here the van der Waals force between agglomerates decreases with an increase in the particle size. We have also included an additional force due to the hydrogen bond formation between the surfaces of hydrophilic and dry nanoparticles. The average size of the fluidized agglomerates has been estimated equating the attractive force obtained from this method to the weight of the individual agglomerates. The results have been compared to 54 experimental values, most of them collected from the literature. Our model approximates without a systematic error the size of most of the nanopowders, both in conventional and centrifugal fluidized beds, outperforming current models. Although simple, the model is able to capture the influence of the nanoparticle size, particle density, and Hamaker coefficient on the inter-agglomerate forces

  9. Prey preferences and prey acceptance in juvenile Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardner, Bjorn; Savidge, Julie A.; Rodda, Gordon H.; Reed, Robert N.

    2009-01-01

    On the Pacific island of Guam, control of the invasive Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) relies largely on methods that use mice as bait. Juvenile B. irregularis feed primarily on lizards and their eggs, but little is known about their prey preference. We conducted an experiment to investigate preferences for, and acceptance of, dead geckos, skinks, and neonatal mice, in juvenile B. irregularis ranging from 290 mm to ca. 700 mm snout-vent length (SVL). Snakes of all sizes showed a preference for geckos over skinks and neonatal mice. Geckos were the first prey chosen in 87% of 224 initial trials (56 snakes subjected to four trials each; 33% would be expected from a random choice). The smallest snakes had the most pronounced preference. Although many of the snakes accepted neonatal mice and/or skinks, some snakes of all sizes were reluctant to feed on anything but geckos, especially when well fed. We also addressed the hypothesis that repeated encounters with a particular prey type increase a snake's preference for that prey. Our study does not support this hypothesis. Our results suggest that control methods relying solely on rodent bait may be inefficient for targeting snakes < 700 mm SVL and that individual heterogeneity in prey preference may cause a significant part of this juvenile cohort to be completely refractory to capture with rodent bait, even if the bait is dead and small enough to be readily swallowed.

  10. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  11. Optimum sample size to estimate mean parasite abundance in fish parasite surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shvydka S.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available To reach ethically and scientifically valid mean abundance values in parasitological and epidemiological studies this paper considers analytic and simulation approaches for sample size determination. The sample size estimation was carried out by applying mathematical formula with predetermined precision level and parameter of the negative binomial distribution estimated from the empirical data. A simulation approach to optimum sample size determination aimed at the estimation of true value of the mean abundance and its confidence interval (CI was based on the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB. The abundance of two species of monogenean parasites Ligophorus cephali and L. mediterraneus from Mugil cephalus across the Azov-Black Seas localities were subjected to the analysis. The dispersion pattern of both helminth species could be characterized as a highly aggregated distribution with the variance being substantially larger than the mean abundance. The holistic approach applied here offers a wide range of appropriate methods in searching for the optimum sample size and the understanding about the expected precision level of the mean. Given the superior performance of the BLB relative to formulae with its few assumptions, the bootstrap procedure is the preferred method. Two important assessments were performed in the present study: i based on CIs width a reasonable precision level for the mean abundance in parasitological surveys of Ligophorus spp. could be chosen between 0.8 and 0.5 with 1.6 and 1x mean of the CIs width, and ii the sample size equal 80 or more host individuals allows accurate and precise estimation of mean abundance. Meanwhile for the host sample size in range between 25 and 40 individuals, the median estimates showed minimal bias but the sampling distribution skewed to the low values; a sample size of 10 host individuals yielded to unreliable estimates.

  12. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  13. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  14. Evaluating prey switching in wolf-ungulate systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrott, Robert A; Bruggeman, Jason E; Becker, Matthew S; Kalinowski, Steven T; White, P J

    2007-09-01

    Wolf restoration has become a widely accepted conservation and management practice throughout North America and Europe, though the ecosystem effects of returning top carnivores remain both scientific and societal controversies. Mathematical models predicting and describing wolf-ungulate interactions are typically limited to the wolves' primary prey, with the potential for prey switching in wolf-multiple-ungulate systems only suggested or assumed by a number of investigators. We used insights gained from experiments on small taxa and field data from ongoing wolf-ungulate studies to construct a model of predator diet composition for a wolf-elk-bison system in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. The model explicitly incorporates differential vulnerability of the ungulate prey types to predation, predator preference, differences in prey biomass, and the possibility of prey switching. Our model demonstrates wolf diet shifts with changes in relative abundance of the two prey, with the dynamics of this shift dependent on the combined influences of preference, differential vulnerability, relative abundances of prey, and whether or not switching occurs. Differences in vulnerability between elk and bison, and strong wolf preference for elk, result in an abrupt dietary shift occurring only when elk are very rare relative to bison, whereas incorporating switching initiates the dietary shift more gradually and at higher bison-elk ratios. We demonstrate how researchers can apply these equations in newly restored wolf-two-prey systems to empirically evaluate whether prey switching is occurring. Each coefficient in the model has a biological interpretation, and most can be directly estimated from empirical data collected from field studies. Given the potential for switching to dramatically influence predator-prey dynamics and the wide range of expected prey types and abundances in some systems where wolves are present and/or being restored, we suggest that this is an

  15. Predator cannibalism can intensify negative impacts on heterospecific prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takatsu, Kunio; Kishida, Osamu

    2015-07-01

    Although natural populations consist of individuals with different traits, and the degree of phenotypic variation varies among populations, the impact of phenotypic variation on ecological interactions has received little attention, because traditional approaches to community ecology assume homogeneity of individuals within a population. Stage structure, which is a common way of generating size and developmental variation within predator populations, can drive cannibalistic interactions, which can affect the strength of predatory effects on the predator's heterospecific prey. Studies have shown that predator cannibalism weakens predatory effects on heterospecific prey by reducing the size of the predator population and by inducing less feeding activity of noncannibal predators. We predict, however, that predator cannibalism, by promoting rapid growth of the cannibals, can also intensify predation pressure on heterospecific prey, because large predators have large resource requirements and may utilize a wider variety of prey species. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an experiment in which we created carnivorous salamander (Hynobius retardatus) populations with different stage structures by manipulating the salamander's hatch timing (i.e., populations with large or small variation in the timing of hatching), and explored the resultant impacts on the abundance, behavior, morphology, and life history of the salamander's large heterospecific prey, Rana pirica frog tadpoles. Cannibalism was rare in salamander populations having small hatch-timing variation, but was frequent in those having large hatch-timing variation. Thus, giant salamander cannibals occurred only in the latter. We clearly showed that salamander giants exerted strong predation pressure on frog tadpoles, which induced large behavioral and morphological defenses in the tadpoles and caused them to metamorphose late at large size. Hence, predator cannibalism arising from large variation in the timing

  16. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailong Dou

    Full Text Available Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  17. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Hailong; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  18. Optimizing CT radiation dose based on patient size and image quality: the size-specific dose estimate method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, David B. [Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2014-10-15

    The principle of ALARA (dose as low as reasonably achievable) calls for dose optimization rather than dose reduction, per se. Optimization of CT radiation dose is accomplished by producing images of acceptable diagnostic image quality using the lowest dose method available. Because it is image quality that constrains the dose, CT dose optimization is primarily a problem of image quality rather than radiation dose. Therefore, the primary focus in CT radiation dose optimization should be on image quality. However, no reliable direct measure of image quality has been developed for routine clinical practice. Until such measures become available, size-specific dose estimates (SSDE) can be used as a reasonable image-quality estimate. The SSDE method of radiation dose optimization for CT abdomen and pelvis consists of plotting SSDE for a sample of examinations as a function of patient size, establishing an SSDE threshold curve based on radiologists' assessment of image quality, and modifying protocols to consistently produce doses that are slightly above the threshold SSDE curve. Challenges in operationalizing CT radiation dose optimization include data gathering and monitoring, managing the complexities of the numerous protocols, scanners and operators, and understanding the relationship of the automated tube current modulation (ATCM) parameters to image quality. Because CT manufacturers currently maintain their ATCM algorithms as secret for proprietary reasons, prospective modeling of SSDE for patient populations is not possible without reverse engineering the ATCM algorithm and, hence, optimization by this method requires a trial-and-error approach. (orig.)

  19. Red fox prey demands and implications to prairie duck production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, A.B.

    1978-01-01

    Experiments were conducted during spring and summer with 33 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to determine prey demands, feeding characteristics, and growth rates using natural foods. Pups began eating prey the 4th week after birth. Then, prey consumption averaged 1.38 and 1.90 kg/pup/week for weeks 5-8 and 9-12 of the denning season respectively, and 2.54 kg/pup/week for the postdenning period. Feeding by adults averaged 2.25 kg/adult/week. Free water was not needed by either pups or adults. About 90 percent of the prey offered to pups on simulated natural diets was consumed, remains varied with prey availability and prey type. Prey biomass required by a typical fox family was estimated at 18.5 kg/km2 for the 12-week denning season and 2.4 kg/km2/week for the postdenning period. Because of the large prey demands, ducks could represent a small part of the foxes' diet and yet be of consequence to the productivity of particular species. An example is provided for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos).

  20. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  1. Using the ''Epiquant'' automatic analyzer for quantitative estimation of grain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsivirko, E I; Ulitenko, A N; Stetsenko, I A; Burova, N M [Zaporozhskij Mashinostroitel' nyj Inst. (Ukrainian SSR)

    1979-01-01

    Application possibility of the ''Epiquant'' automatic analyzer to estimate qualitatively austenite grain in the 18Kh2N4VA steel has been investigated. Austenite grain has been clarified using the methods of cementation, oxidation and etching of the grain boundaries. Average linear size of grain at the length of 15 mm has been determined according to the total length of grain intersection line and the number of intersections at the boundaries. It is shown that the ''Epiquant'' analyzer ensures quantitative estimation of austenite grain size with relative error of 2-4 %.

  2. Estimating the size of non-observed economy in Croatia using the MIMIC approach

    OpenAIRE

    Vjekoslav Klaric

    2011-01-01

    This paper gives a quick overview of the approaches that have been used in the research of shadow economy, starting with the defi nitions of the terms “shadow economy” and “non-observed economy”, with the accent on the ISTAT/Eurostat framework. Several methods for estimating the size of the shadow economy and the non-observed economy are then presented. The emphasis is placed on the MIMIC approach, one of the methods used to estimate the size of the nonobserved economy. After a glance at the ...

  3. Estimation of the effective population size (Ne) and its application in the management of small populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen

    2016-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept to understand the evolution of a population. In conservation, Ne is used to assess the threat status of a population, evaluate its genetic viability in the future and set conservation priorities. An accurate estimation of Ne is thus essential....... The main objective of this thesis was to better understand how the estimation of Ne using molecular markers can be improved for use in conservation genetics. As a first step, we undertook a simulation study where three different methods to estimate Ne were investigated. We explored how well these three...... methods performed under different scenarios. This study showed that all three methods performed better when the number of unlinked loci used to make the estimation increased and the minimum number of loci need for an accurate estimation of Ne was 100 SNPs. A general assumption in the estimation of Ne...

  4. Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Yan, Ping; Sleeman, Candace K; Mode, Charles J

    2012-02-07

    Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k=1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.38). When less dispersed with k=2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The effects of meal size, body size and temperature on gastric evacuation in pikeperch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koed, Anders

    2001-01-01

    Prey size had no effect on the gastric evacuation rate of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca. The gastric evacuation was adequately described applying an exponent of 0.5 in the power model. Applying length instead of weight of pikeperch in the gastric evacuation model resulted in a change of estim...

  6. A simple method for estimating the size of nuclei on fractal surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qiang

    2017-10-01

    Determining the size of nuclei on complex surfaces remains a big challenge in aspects of biological, material and chemical engineering. Here the author reported a simple method to estimate the size of the nuclei in contact with complex (fractal) surfaces. The established approach was based on the assumptions of contact area proportionality for determining nucleation density and the scaling congruence between nuclei and surfaces for identifying contact regimes. It showed three different regimes governing the equations for estimating the nucleation site density. Nuclei in the size large enough could eliminate the effect of fractal structure. Nuclei in the size small enough could lead to the independence of nucleation site density on fractal parameters. Only when nuclei match the fractal scales, the nucleation site density is associated with the fractal parameters and the size of the nuclei in a coupling pattern. The method was validated by the experimental data reported in the literature. The method may provide an effective way to estimate the size of nuclei on fractal surfaces, through which a number of promising applications in relative fields can be envisioned.

  7. Estimating search engine index size variability: a 9-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bosch, Antal; Bogers, Toine; de Kunder, Maurice

    One of the determining factors of the quality of Web search engines is the size of their index. In addition to its influence on search result quality, the size of the indexed Web can also tell us something about which parts of the WWW are directly accessible to the everyday user. We propose a novel method of estimating the size of a Web search engine's index by extrapolating from document frequencies of words observed in a large static corpus of Web pages. In addition, we provide a unique longitudinal perspective on the size of Google and Bing's indices over a nine-year period, from March 2006 until January 2015. We find that index size estimates of these two search engines tend to vary dramatically over time, with Google generally possessing a larger index than Bing. This result raises doubts about the reliability of previous one-off estimates of the size of the indexed Web. We find that much, if not all of this variability can be explained by changes in the indexing and ranking infrastructure of Google and Bing. This casts further doubt on whether Web search engines can be used reliably for cross-sectional webometric studies.

  8. Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

  9. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Spatial distribution and size of small canopy gaps created by Japanese black bears: estimating gap size using dropped branch measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kazuaki; Takahashi, Kaori

    2013-06-10

    Japanese black bears, a large-bodied omnivore, frequently create small gaps in the tree crown during fruit foraging. However, there are no previous reports of black bear-created canopy gaps. To characterize physical canopy disturbance by black bears, we examined a number of parameters, including the species of trees in which canopy gaps were created, gap size, the horizontal and vertical distribution of gaps, and the size of branches broken to create gaps. The size of black bear-created canopy gaps was estimated using data from branches that had been broken and dropped on the ground. The disturbance regime was characterized by a highly biased distribution of small canopy gaps on ridges, a large total overall gap area, a wide range in gap height relative to canopy height, and diversity in gap size. Surprisingly, the annual rate of bear-created canopy gap formation reached 141.3 m2 ha-1 yr-1 on ridges, which were hot spots in terms of black bear activity. This rate was approximately 6.6 times that of tree-fall gap formation on ridges at this study site. Furthermore, this rate was approximately two to three times that of common tree-fall gap formation in Japanese forests, as reported in other studies. Our findings suggest that the ecological interaction between black bears and fruit-bearing trees may create a unique light regime, distinct from that created by tree falls, which increases the availability of light resources to plants below the canopy.

  11. Cost of living dictates what whales, dolphins and porpoises eat: the importance of prey quality on predator foraging strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérôme Spitz

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms that drive prey selection is a major challenge in foraging ecology. Most studies of foraging strategies have focused on behavioural costs, and have generally failed to recognize that differences in the quality of prey may be as important to predators as the costs of acquisition. Here, we tested whether there is a relationship between the quality of diets (kJ · g(-1 consumed by cetaceans in the North Atlantic and their metabolic costs of living as estimated by indicators of muscle performance (mitochondrial density, n = 60, and lipid content, n = 37. We found that the cost of living of 11 cetacean species is tightly coupled with the quality of prey they consume. This relationship between diet quality and cost of living appears to be independent of phylogeny and body size, and runs counter to predictions that stem from the well-known scaling relationships between mass and metabolic rates. Our finding suggests that the quality of prey rather than the sheer quantity of food is a major determinant of foraging strategies employed by predators to meet their specific energy requirements. This predator-specific dependence on food quality appears to reflect the evolution of ecological strategies at a species level, and has implications for risk assessment associated with the consequences of changing the quality and quantities of prey available to top predators in marine ecosystems.

  12. Piscivorous fish exhibit temperature-influenced binge feeding during an annual prey pulse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furey, Nathan B; Hinch, Scott G; Mesa, Matthew G; Beauchamp, David A

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the limits of consumption is important for determining trophic influences on ecosystems and predator adaptations to inconsistent prey availability. Fishes have been observed to consume beyond what is sustainable (i.e. digested on a daily basis), but this phenomenon of hyperphagia (or binge-feeding) is largely overlooked. We expect hyperphagia to be a short-term (1-day) event that is facilitated by gut volume providing capacity to store consumed food during periods of high prey availability to be later digested. We define how temperature, body size and food availability influence the degree of binge-feeding by comparing field observations with laboratory experiments of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), a large freshwater piscivore that experiences highly variable prey pulses. We also simulated bull trout consumption and growth during salmon smolt outmigrations under two scenarios: 1) daily consumption being dependent upon bioenergetically sustainable rates and 2) daily consumption being dependent upon available gut volume (i.e. consumption is equal to gut volume when empty and otherwise 'topping off' based on sustainable digestion rates). One-day consumption by laboratory-held bull trout during the first day of feeding experiments after fasting exceeded bioenergetically sustainable rates by 12- to 87-fold at low temperatures (3 °C) and by  ˜1·3-fold at 20 °C. The degree of binge-feeding by bull trout in the field was slightly reduced but largely in agreement with laboratory estimates, especially when prey availability was extremely high [during a sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) smolt outmigration and at a counting fence where smolts are funnelled into high densities]. Consumption by bull trout at other settings were lower and more variable, but still regularly hyperphagic. Simulations demonstrated the ability to binge-feed increased cumulative consumption (16-32%) and cumulative growth (19-110%) relative to only feeding at

  13. A modified approach to estimating sample size for simple logistic regression with one continuous covariate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novikov, I; Fund, N; Freedman, L S

    2010-01-15

    Different methods for the calculation of sample size for simple logistic regression (LR) with one normally distributed continuous covariate give different results. Sometimes the difference can be large. Furthermore, some methods require the user to specify the prevalence of cases when the covariate equals its population mean, rather than the more natural population prevalence. We focus on two commonly used methods and show through simulations that the power for a given sample size may differ substantially from the nominal value for one method, especially when the covariate effect is large, while the other method performs poorly if the user provides the population prevalence instead of the required parameter. We propose a modification of the method of Hsieh et al. that requires specification of the population prevalence and that employs Schouten's sample size formula for a t-test with unequal variances and group sizes. This approach appears to increase the accuracy of the sample size estimates for LR with one continuous covariate.

  14. Uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans: The effect of head size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This study is an extension of a previous study where the uncertainties in effective dose estimates from adult CT head scans were calculated using four CT effective dose estimation methods, three of which were computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDOSIMETRY, and IMPACTDOSE) and one that involved the dose length product (DLP). However, that study did not include the uncertainty contribution due to variations in head sizes. Methods: The uncertainties due to head size variations were estimated by first using the computer program data to calculate doses to small and large heads. These doses were then compared with doses calculated for the phantom heads used by the computer programs. An uncertainty was then assigned based on the difference between the small and large head doses and the doses of the phantom heads. Results: The uncertainties due to head size variations alone were found to be between 4% and 26% depending on the method used and the patient gender. When these uncertainties were included with the results of the previous study, the overall uncertainties in effective dose estimates (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-30% (CTDOSIMETRY), 20%-36% (IMPACTDOSE), and 31%-40% (DLP). Conclusions: For the computer programs, the lower overall uncertainties were still achieved when measured values of CT dose index were used rather than tabulated values. For DLP dose estimates, head size variations made the largest (for males) and second largest (for females) contributions to effective dose uncertainty. An improvement in the uncertainty of the DLP method dose estimates will be achieved if head size variation can be taken into account.

  15. Uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans: The effect of head size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. [Department of Medical Physics, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, South Australia 5000 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); Division of Medical Imaging, Women' s and Children' s Hospital, North Adelaide, South Australia 5006 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia)

    2009-09-15

    Purpose: This study is an extension of a previous study where the uncertainties in effective dose estimates from adult CT head scans were calculated using four CT effective dose estimation methods, three of which were computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDOSIMETRY, and IMPACTDOSE) and one that involved the dose length product (DLP). However, that study did not include the uncertainty contribution due to variations in head sizes. Methods: The uncertainties due to head size variations were estimated by first using the computer program data to calculate doses to small and large heads. These doses were then compared with doses calculated for the phantom heads used by the computer programs. An uncertainty was then assigned based on the difference between the small and large head doses and the doses of the phantom heads. Results: The uncertainties due to head size variations alone were found to be between 4% and 26% depending on the method used and the patient gender. When these uncertainties were included with the results of the previous study, the overall uncertainties in effective dose estimates (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-30% (CTDOSIMETRY), 20%-36% (IMPACTDOSE), and 31%-40% (DLP). Conclusions: For the computer programs, the lower overall uncertainties were still achieved when measured values of CT dose index were used rather than tabulated values. For DLP dose estimates, head size variations made the largest (for males) and second largest (for females) contributions to effective dose uncertainty. An improvement in the uncertainty of the DLP method dose estimates will be achieved if head size variation can be taken into account.

  16. Modelling prey consumption and switching by UK grey seals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smout, Sophie; Rindorf, Anna; Hammond, Philip S.

    2014-01-01

    Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are adaptable generalist predatorswhose diet includes commercial fish species such as cod. Consumption by the seals may reduce the size of some fish stocks or have an adverse effect on stock recovery programmes, especially because predation may trap sparse prey...... populations in a “predator pit”. To assess the likely impact of such effects, it is important to know how consumption and consequent predation mortality respond to the changing availability of prey.Wepresent a model of grey seal consumption as a function of the availability of multiple prey types [a Multi...

  17. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  18. Background parenchymal enhancement in breast MRIs of breast cancer patients: Impact on tumor size estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Ji Eun; Kim, Sung Hun; Lee, Ah Won

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate whether the degree of background parenchymal enhancement affects the accuracy of tumor size estimation based on breast MRI. Methods: Three hundred and twenty-two patients who had known breast cancer and underwent breast MRIs were recruited in our study. The total number of breast cancer cases was 339. All images were assessed retrospectively for the level of background parenchymal enhancement based on the BI-RADS criteria. Maximal lesion diameters were measured on the MRIs, and tumor types (mass vs. non-mass) were assessed. Tumor size differences between the MRI-based estimates and estimates based on pathological examinations were analyzed. The relationship between accuracy and tumor types and clinicopathologic features were also evaluated. Results: The cases included minimal (47.5%), mild (28.9%), moderate (12.4%) and marked background parenchymal enhancement (11.2%). The tumors of patients with minimal or mild background parenchymal enhancement were more accurately estimated than those of patients with moderate or marked enhancement (72.1% vs. 56.8%; p = 0.003). The tumors of women with mass type lesions were significantly more accurately estimated than those of the women with non-mass type lesions (81.6% vs. 28.6%; p < 0.001). The tumor of women negative for HER2 was more accurately estimated than those of women positive for HER2 (72.2% vs. 51.6%; p = 0.047). Conclusion: Moderate and marked background parenchymal enhancement is related to the inaccurate estimation of tumor size based on MRI. Non-mass type breast cancer and HER2-positive breast cancer are other factors that may cause inaccurate assessment of tumor size

  19. Covariate adjustments in randomized controlled trials increased study power and reduced biasedness of effect size estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Paul H

    2016-08-01

    This study aims to show that under several assumptions, in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), unadjusted, crude analysis will underestimate the Cohen's d effect size of the treatment, and an unbiased estimate of effect size can be obtained only by adjusting for all predictors of the outcome. Four simulations were performed to examine the effects of adjustment on the estimated effect size of the treatment and power of the analysis. In addition, we analyzed data from the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) study (older adults aged 65-94), an RCT with three treatment arms and one control arm. We showed that (1) the number of unadjusted covariates was associated with the effect size of the treatment; (2) the biasedness of effect size estimation was minimized if all covariates were adjusted for; (3) the power of the statistical analysis slightly decreased with the number of adjusted noise variables; and (4) exhaustively searching the covariates and noise variables adjusted for can lead to exaggeration of the true effect size. Analysis of the ACTIVE study data showed that the effect sizes adjusting for covariates of all three treatments were 7.39-24.70% larger than their unadjusted counterparts, whereas the effect size would be elevated by at most 57.92% by exhaustively searching the variables adjusted for. All covariates of the outcome in RCTs should be adjusted for, and if the effect of a particular variable on the outcome is unknown, adjustment will do more good than harm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Children's accuracy of portion size estimation using digital food images: effects of interface design and size of image on computer screen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranowski, Tom; Baranowski, Janice C; Watson, Kathleen B; Martin, Shelby; Beltran, Alicia; Islam, Noemi; Dadabhoy, Hafza; Adame, Su-heyla; Cullen, Karen; Thompson, Debbe; Buday, Richard; Subar, Amy

    2011-03-01

    To test the effect of image size and presence of size cues on the accuracy of portion size estimation by children. Children were randomly assigned to seeing images with or without food size cues (utensils and checked tablecloth) and were presented with sixteen food models (foods commonly eaten by children) in varying portion sizes, one at a time. They estimated each food model's portion size by selecting a digital food image. The same food images were presented in two ways: (i) as small, graduated portion size images all on one screen or (ii) by scrolling across large, graduated portion size images, one per sequential screen. Laboratory-based with computer and food models. Volunteer multi-ethnic sample of 120 children, equally distributed by gender and ages (8 to 13 years) in 2008-2009. Average percentage of correctly classified foods was 60·3 %. There were no differences in accuracy by any design factor or demographic characteristic. Multiple small pictures on the screen at once took half the time to estimate portion size compared with scrolling through large pictures. Larger pictures had more overestimation of size. Multiple images of successively larger portion sizes of a food on one computer screen facilitated quicker portion size responses with no decrease in accuracy. This is the method of choice for portion size estimation on a computer.

  1. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

  2. Bias Corrections for Standardized Effect Size Estimates Used with Single-Subject Experimental Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugille, Maaike; Moeyaert, Mariola; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Ferron, John M.; Van den Noortgate, Wim

    2014-01-01

    A multilevel meta-analysis can combine the results of several single-subject experimental design studies. However, the estimated effects are biased if the effect sizes are standardized and the number of measurement occasions is small. In this study, the authors investigated 4 approaches to correct for this bias. First, the standardized effect…

  3. Estimating the size of the potential market for the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Z.X.

    2000-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol incorporates three flexibility mechanisms to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three mechanisms over the first commitment period. Based on the national communications

  4. Estimating the size of the potential market for the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Zhong Xiang

    1999-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol incorporates emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto

  5. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

  6. Estimating the ratio of pond size to irrigated soybean land in Mississippi: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying Ouyang; G. Feng; J. Read; T. D. Leininger; J. N. Jenkins

    2016-01-01

    Although more on-farm storage ponds have been constructed in recent years to mitigate groundwater resources depletion in Mississippi, little effort has been devoted to estimating the ratio of on-farm water storage pond size to irrigated crop land based on pond metric and its hydrogeological conditions.  In this study, two simulation scenarios were chosen to...

  7. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  8. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  9. Replicon sizes in mammalian cells as estimated by an x-ray plus bromodeoxyuridine photolysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapp, L.N.; Painter, R.B.

    1978-01-01

    A new method is described for estimating replicon sizes in mammalian cells. Cultures were pulse labeled with [ 3 H]thymidine ([ 3 H]TdR) and bromodeoxyuridine (BrDUrd) for up to 1 h. The lengths of the resulting labeled regions of DNA, L/sub obs/, were estimated by a technique wherein the change in molecular weight of nascent DNA strands, induced by 313 nm light, is measured by velocity sedimentation in alkaline sucrose gradients. If cells are exposed to 1,000 rads of x rays immediately before pulse labeling, initiation of replicon operation is blocked, although chain elongation proceeds almost normally. Under these conditions L/sub obs/ continues to increase only until operating replicons have completed their replication. This value for L/sub obs/ then remains constant as long as the block to initiation remains and represents an estimate for the average size of replicons operating in the cells before x irradiation. For human diploid fibroblasts and human HeLa cells this estimated average size is approximately 17 μM, whereas for Chinese hamster ovary cells, the average replicon size is about 42 μM

  10. Sample Size Calculation for Estimating or Testing a Nonzero Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamoorthy, K.; Xia, Yanping

    2008-01-01

    The problems of hypothesis testing and interval estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient of a multivariate normal distribution are considered. It is shown that available one-sided tests are uniformly most powerful, and the one-sided confidence intervals are uniformly most accurate. An exact method of calculating sample size to…

  11. Accounting for One-Group Clustering in Effect-Size Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citkowicz, Martyna; Hedges, Larry V.

    2013-01-01

    In some instances, intentionally or not, study designs are such that there is clustering in one group but not in the other. This paper describes methods for computing effect size estimates and their variances when there is clustering in only one group and the analysis has not taken that clustering into account. The authors provide the effect size…

  12. Estimating Most Productive Scale Size in Data Envelopment Analysis with Integer Value Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwi Sari, Yunita; Angria S, Layla; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad

    2018-01-01

    The most productive scale size (MPSS) is a measurement that states how resources should be organized and utilized to achieve optimal results. The most productive scale size (MPSS) can be used as a benchmark for the success of an industry or company in producing goods or services. To estimate the most productive scale size (MPSS), each decision making unit (DMU) should pay attention the level of input-output efficiency, by data envelopment analysis (DEA) method decision making unit (DMU) can identify units used as references that can help to find the cause and solution from inefficiencies can optimize productivity that main advantage in managerial applications. Therefore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is chosen to estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) that will focus on the input of integer value data with the CCR model and the BCC model. The purpose of this research is to find the best solution for estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) with input of integer value data in data envelopment analysis (DEA) method.

  13. Optimal capacity and buffer size estimation under Generalized Markov Fluids Models and QoS parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bavio, José; Marrón, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    Quality of service (QoS) for internet traffic management requires good traffic models and good estimation of sharing network resource. A link of a network processes all traffic and it is designed with certain capacity C and buffer size B. A Generalized Markov Fluid model (GMFM), introduced by Marrón (2011), is assumed for the sources because describes in a versatile way the traffic, allows estimation based on traffic traces, and also consistent effective bandwidth estimation can be done. QoS, interpreted as buffer overflow probability, can be estimated for GMFM through the effective bandwidth estimation and solving the optimization problem presented in Courcoubetis (2002), the so call inf-sup formulas. In this work we implement a code to solve the inf-sup problem and other optimization related with it, that allow us to do traffic engineering in links of data networks to calculate both, minimum capacity required when QoS and buffer size are given or minimum buffer size required when QoS and capacity are given

  14. Validation of a food quantification picture book and portion sizes estimation applying perception and memory methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szenczi-Cseh, J; Horváth, Zs; Ambrus, Á

    2017-12-01

    We tested the applicability of EPIC-SOFT food picture series used in the context of a Hungarian food consumption survey gathering data for exposure assessment, and investigated errors in food portion estimation resulted from the visual perception and conceptualisation-memory. Sixty-two participants in three age groups (10 to foods. The results were considered acceptable if the relative difference between average estimated and actual weight obtained through the perception method was ≤25%, and the relative standard deviation of the individual weight estimates was food items were rated acceptable. Small portion sizes were tended to be overestimated, large ones were tended to be underestimated. Portions of boiled potato and creamed spinach were all over- and underestimated, respectively. Recalling the portion sizes resulted in overestimation with larger differences (up to 60.7%).

  15. Estimating the Grain Size Distribution of Mars based on Fragmentation Theory and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charalambous, C.; Pike, W. T.; Golombek, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present here a fundamental extension to the fragmentation theory [1] which yields estimates of the distribution of particle sizes of a planetary surface. The model is valid within the size regimes of surfaces whose genesis is best reflected by the evolution of fragmentation phenomena governed by either the process of meteoritic impacts, or by a mixture with aeolian transportation at the smaller sizes. The key parameter of the model, the regolith maturity index, can be estimated as an average of that observed at a local site using cratering size-frequency measurements, orbital and surface image-detected rock counts and observations of sub-mm particles at landing sites. Through validation of ground truth from previous landed missions, the basis of this approach has been used at the InSight landing ellipse on Mars to extrapolate rock size distributions in HiRISE images down to 5 cm rock size, both to determine the landing safety risk and the subsequent probability of obstruction by a rock of the deployed heat flow mole down to 3-5 m depth [2]. Here we focus on a continuous extrapolation down to 600 µm coarse sand particles, the upper size limit that may be present through aeolian processes [3]. The parameters of the model are first derived for the fragmentation process that has produced the observable rocks via meteorite impacts over time, and therefore extrapolation into a size regime that is affected by aeolian processes has limited justification without further refinement. Incorporating thermal inertia estimates, size distributions observed by the Spirit and Opportunity Microscopic Imager [4] and Atomic Force and Optical Microscopy from the Phoenix Lander [5], the model's parameters in combination with synthesis methods are quantitatively refined further to allow transition within the aeolian transportation size regime. In addition, due to the nature of the model emerging in fractional mass abundance, the percentage of material by volume or mass that resides

  16. Estimation of body-size traits by photogrammetry in large mammals to inform conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Joel

    2012-10-01

    Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual-specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother-young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth.

  17. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  18. Size matters: Exploring the importance of vessel characteristics to inform estimates of shipping emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, Conor; Bows, Alice

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Ship emission baselines can be used to inform studies but require prior knowledge. ► Region specific conditions alter average shipping emission factors. ► Region specific conditions are clearer when individual callings are examined. ► Relationship between ship size and emissions frustrates estimating mean emissions. -- Abstract: The decarbonisation agenda is placing increasing pressure on retailers to directly and indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions associated with full supply chains. Transportation by sea is an important and significant element of these supply chains, yet the emissions associated with shipping, particularly international shipping, are often poorly accounted for. The magnitude of emissions embodied in a product is directly related to the distances involved in globalised product chains, where shipping can represent the most emission intensive stage per tonne of goods transported. Specifically, limited choice of ship type and size within assessment tools negates a fair estimate of product chain emissions. To address this, the correlation between ship emissions and size is quantified for a sample of United Kingdom (UK) port callings to estimate typical UK emission factors by ship type and size and to determine how well existing global data and available databases represent UK shipping activity. The results highlight that although ship type is a crucial determinant of emissions, vessel size is also important, particularly for smaller ships where the variance in emission factors is greatest. Existing, globally averaged data correlating ship size with emissions agree well with the UK data. However, the relatively higher proportion of smaller ships satisfying a UK demand for short sea shipping results in a skew towards higher typical emission factors, principally within the general cargo, product and chemical tanker categories. This bias is most visible when emissions per individual ship calling are estimated. Incorporating

  19. Body Size Estimation from Early to Middle Childhood: Stability of Underestimation, BMI, and Gender Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silje Steinsbekk

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Individuals who are overweight are more likely to underestimate their body size than those who are normal weight, and overweight underestimators are less likely to engage in weight loss efforts. Underestimation of body size might represent a barrier to prevention and treatment of overweight; thus insight in how underestimation of body size develops and tracks through the childhood years is needed. The aim of the present study was therefore to examine stability in children’s underestimation of body size, exploring predictors of underestimation over time. The prospective path from underestimation to BMI was also tested. In a Norwegian cohort of 6 year olds, followed up at ages 8 and 10 (analysis sample: n = 793 body size estimation was captured by the Children’s Body Image Scale, height and weight were measured and BMI calculated. Overall, children were more likely to underestimate than overestimate their body size. Individual stability in underestimation was modest, but significant. Higher BMI predicted future underestimation, even when previous underestimation was adjusted for, but there was no evidence for the opposite direction of influence. Boys were more likely than girls to underestimate their body size at ages 8 and 10 (age 8: 38.0% vs. 24.1%; Age 10: 57.9% vs. 30.8% and showed a steeper increase in underestimation with age compared to girls. In conclusion, the majority of 6, 8, and 10-year olds correctly estimate their body size (prevalence ranging from 40 to 70% depending on age and gender, although a substantial portion perceived themselves to be thinner than they actually were. Higher BMI forecasted future underestimation, but underestimation did not increase the risk for excessive weight gain in middle childhood.

  20. Estimating a reasonable patient panel size for primary care physicians with team-based task delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altschuler, Justin; Margolius, David; Bodenheimer, Thomas; Grumbach, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE Primary care faces the dilemma of excessive patient panel sizes in an environment of a primary care physician shortage. We aimed to estimate primary care panel sizes under different models of task delegation to nonphysician members of the primary care team. METHODS We used published estimates of the time it takes for a primary care physician to provide preventive, chronic, and acute care for a panel of 2,500 patients, and modeled how panel sizes would change if portions of preventive and chronic care services were delegated to nonphysician team members. RESULTS Using 3 assumptions about the degree of task delegation that could be achieved (77%, 60%, and 50% of preventive care, and 47%, 30%, and 25% of chronic care), we estimated that a primary care team could reasonably care for a panel of 1,947, 1,523, or 1,387 patients. CONCLUSIONS If portions of preventive and chronic care services are delegated to nonphysician team members, primary care practices can provide recommended preventive and chronic care with panel sizes that are achievable with the available primary care workforce.

  1. See food diet? Cultural differences in estimating fullness and intake as a function of plate size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Mei; Adam, Sarah; Hautus, Michael J; Shin, Myoungju; Duizer, Lisa M; Yan, Huiquan

    2017-10-01

    Previous research has suggested that manipulations of plate size can have a direct impact on perception of food intake, measured by estimated fullness and intake. The present study, involving 570 individuals across Canada, China, Korea, and New Zealand, is the first empirical study to investigate cultural influences on perception of food portion as a function of plate size. The respondents viewed photographs of ten culturally diverse dishes presented on large (27 cm) and small (23 cm) plates, and then rated their estimated usual intake and expected fullness after consuming the dish, using 100-point visual analog scales. The data were analysed with a mixed-model ANCOVA controlling for individual BMI, liking and familiarity of the presented food. The results showed clear cultural differences: (1) manipulations of the plate size had no effect on the expected fullness or the estimated intake of the Chinese and Korean respondents, as opposed to significant effects in Canadians and New Zealanders (p Asian respondents. Overall, these findings, from a cultural perspective, support the notion that estimation of fullness and intake are learned through dining experiences, and highlight the importance of considering eating environments and contexts when assessing individual behaviours relating to food intake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Artificial Neural Network-Based Clutter Reduction Systems for Ship Size Estimation in Maritime Radars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Jarabo-Amores

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The existence of clutter in maritime radars deteriorates the estimation of some physical parameters of the objects detected over the sea surface. For that reason, maritime radars should incorporate efficient clutter reduction techniques. Due to the intrinsic nonlinear dynamic of sea clutter, nonlinear signal processing is needed, what can be achieved by artificial neural networks (ANNs. In this paper, an estimation of the ship size using an ANN-based clutter reduction system followed by a fixed threshold is proposed. High clutter reduction rates are achieved using 1-dimensional (horizontal or vertical integration modes, although inaccurate ship width estimations are achieved. These estimations are improved using a 2-dimensional (rhombus integration mode. The proposed system is compared with a CA-CFAR system, denoting a great performance improvement and a great robustness against changes in sea clutter conditions and ship parameters, independently of the direction of movement of the ocean waves and ships.

  3. Sample size estimation and sampling techniques for selecting a representative sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aamir Omair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this article is to provide a general understanding of the concepts of sampling as applied to health-related research. Sample Size Estimation: It is important to select a representative sample in quantitative research in order to be able to generalize the results to the target population. The sample should be of the required sample size and must be selected using an appropriate probability sampling technique. There are many hidden biases which can adversely affect the outcome of the study. Important factors to consider for estimating the sample size include the size of the study population, confidence level, expected proportion of the outcome variable (for categorical variables/standard deviation of the outcome variable (for numerical variables, and the required precision (margin of accuracy from the study. The more the precision required, the greater is the required sample size. Sampling Techniques: The probability sampling techniques applied for health related research include simple random sampling, systematic random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, and multistage sampling. These are more recommended than the nonprobability sampling techniques, because the results of the study can be generalized to the target population.

  4. A simple nomogram for sample size for estimating sensitivity and specificity of medical tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malhotra Rajeev

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity and specificity measure inherent validity of a diagnostic test against a gold standard. Researchers develop new diagnostic methods to reduce the cost, risk, invasiveness, and time. Adequate sample size is a must to precisely estimate the validity of a diagnostic test. In practice, researchers generally decide about the sample size arbitrarily either at their convenience, or from the previous literature. We have devised a simple nomogram that yields statistically valid sample size for anticipated sensitivity or anticipated specificity. MS Excel version 2007 was used to derive the values required to plot the nomogram using varying absolute precision, known prevalence of disease, and 95% confidence level using the formula already available in the literature. The nomogram plot was obtained by suitably arranging the lines and distances to conform to this formula. This nomogram could be easily used to determine the sample size for estimating the sensitivity or specificity of a diagnostic test with required precision and 95% confidence level. Sample size at 90% and 99% confidence level, respectively, can also be obtained by just multiplying 0.70 and 1.75 with the number obtained for the 95% confidence level. A nomogram instantly provides the required number of subjects by just moving the ruler and can be repeatedly used without redoing the calculations. This can also be applied for reverse calculations. This nomogram is not applicable for testing of the hypothesis set-up and is applicable only when both diagnostic test and gold standard results have a dichotomous category.

  5. Evaluating the performance of species richness estimators: sensitivity to sample grain size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hortal, Joaquín; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Gaspar, Clara

    2006-01-01

    and several recent estimators [proposed by Rosenzweig et al. (Conservation Biology, 2003, 17, 864-874), and Ugland et al. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2003, 72, 888-897)] performed poorly. 3.  Estimations developed using the smaller grain sizes (pair of traps, traps, records and individuals) presented similar....... Data obtained with standardized sampling of 78 transects in natural forest remnants of five islands were aggregated in seven different grains (i.e. ways of defining a single sample): islands, natural areas, transects, pairs of traps, traps, database records and individuals to assess the effect of using...

  6. Estimation of break location and size for loss of coolant accidents using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun; Shin, Sun Ho; Jung, Dong Won; Kim, Soong Pyung; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Lee, Byung Chul

    2004-01-01

    In this work, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) that has been applied well to the classification problems is used in order to identify the break locations of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) such as hot-leg, cold-leg and steam generator tubes. Also, a fuzzy neural network (FNN) is designed to estimate the break size. The inputs to PNN and FNN are time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. An automatic structure constructor for the fuzzy neural network automatically selects the input variables from the time-integrated values of many measured signals, and optimizes the number of rules and its related parameters. It is verified that the proposed algorithm identifies very well the break locations of LOCAs and also, estimate their break size accurately

  7. Plot size recommendations for biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; George R Parker

    1998-01-01

    The authors examine the relationship between disturbance regime and plot size for woody biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth deciduous forest from 1926 to 1992. Analysis was done on the core 19.6 ac of a 50.1 ac forest in which every tree 4 in. d.b.h. and greater has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five windows of time are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986...

  8. A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

    2013-01-01

    Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

  9. A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

    2013-06-01

    Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

  10. Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

    2003-07-01

    Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

  11. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  12. Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Resident Nonimmigrant Population in the United States: January 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the size and characteristics of the resident nonimmigrant population in the United States. The estimates are daily averages for the...

  13. Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Pleasants

    Full Text Available To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

  14. Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

    2011-06-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population

  15. Gastropod shell size and architecture influence the applicability of methods used to estimate internal volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragagnin, Marilia Nagata; Gorman, Daniel; McCarthy, Ian Donald; Sant'Anna, Bruno Sampaio; de Castro, Cláudio Campi; Turra, Alexander

    2018-01-11

    Obtaining accurate and reproducible estimates of internal shell volume is a vital requirement for studies into the ecology of a range of shell-occupying organisms, including hermit crabs. Shell internal volume is usually estimated by filling the shell cavity with water or sand, however, there has been no systematic assessment of the reliability of these methods and moreover no comparison with modern alternatives, e.g., computed tomography (CT). This study undertakes the first assessment of the measurement reproducibility of three contrasting approaches across a spectrum of shell architectures and sizes. While our results suggested a certain level of variability inherent for all methods, we conclude that a single measure using sand/water is likely to be sufficient for the majority of studies. However, care must be taken as precision may decline with increasing shell size and structural complexity. CT provided less variation between repeat measures but volume estimates were consistently lower compared to sand/water and will need methodological improvements before it can be used as an alternative. CT indicated volume may be also underestimated using sand/water due to the presence of air spaces visible in filled shells scanned by CT. Lastly, we encourage authors to clearly describe how volume estimates were obtained.

  16. Estimating the size of juvenile fish populations in southeastern coastal-plain estuaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjelson, M.A.

    1977-01-01

    Understanding the ecological significance of man's activities upon fishery resources requires information on the size of affected fish stocks. The objective of this paper is to provide information to evaluate and plan sampling programs designed to obtain accurate and precise estimates of fish abundance. Nursery habitats, as marsh--tidal creeks and submerged grass beds, offer the optimal conditions for estimating natural mortality rates for young-of-the-year fish in Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast estuaries. The area-density method of abundance estimation using quantitative gears is more feasible than either mark-recapture or direct-count techniques. The blockage method provides the most accurate estimates, while encircling devices enable highly mobile species found in open water to be captured. Drop nets and lift nets allow samples to be taken in obstructed sites, but trawls and seines are the most economical gears. Replicate samples are necessary to improve the precision of density estimates, while evaluation and use of gear-catch efficiencies is feasible and required to improve the accuracy of density estimates. Coefficients of variation for replicate trawl samples range from 50 to 150 percent, while catch efficiencies for both trawls and seines for many juvenile fishes range from approximately 30 to 70 percent

  17. A Model Based Approach to Sample Size Estimation in Recent Onset Type 1 Diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundy, Brian; Krischer, Jeffrey P.

    2016-01-01

    The area under the curve C-peptide following a 2-hour mixed meal tolerance test from 481 individuals enrolled on 5 prior TrialNet studies of recent onset type 1 diabetes from baseline to 12 months after enrollment were modelled to produce estimates of its rate of loss and variance. Age at diagnosis and baseline C-peptide were found to be significant predictors and adjusting for these in an ANCOVA resulted in estimates with lower variance. Using these results as planning parameters for new studies results in a nearly 50% reduction in the target sample size. The modelling also produces an expected C-peptide that can be used in Observed vs. Expected calculations to estimate the presumption of benefit in ongoing trials. PMID:26991448

  18. A model-based approach to sample size estimation in recent onset type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundy, Brian N; Krischer, Jeffrey P

    2016-11-01

    The area under the curve C-peptide following a 2-h mixed meal tolerance test from 498 individuals enrolled on five prior TrialNet studies of recent onset type 1 diabetes from baseline to 12 months after enrolment were modelled to produce estimates of its rate of loss and variance. Age at diagnosis and baseline C-peptide were found to be significant predictors, and adjusting for these in an ANCOVA resulted in estimates with lower variance. Using these results as planning parameters for new studies results in a nearly 50% reduction in the target sample size. The modelling also produces an expected C-peptide that can be used in observed versus expected calculations to estimate the presumption of benefit in ongoing trials. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Joint inversion of NMR and SIP data to estimate pore size distribution of geomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Qifei; Zhang, Chi

    2018-03-01

    There are growing interests in using geophysical tools to characterize the microstructure of geomaterials because of the non-invasive nature and the applicability in field. In these applications, multiple types of geophysical data sets are usually processed separately, which may be inadequate to constrain the key feature of target variables. Therefore, simultaneous processing of multiple data sets could potentially improve the resolution. In this study, we propose a method to estimate pore size distribution by joint inversion of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) T2 relaxation and spectral induced polarization (SIP) spectra. The petrophysical relation between NMR T2 relaxation time and SIP relaxation time is incorporated in a nonlinear least squares problem formulation, which is solved using Gauss-Newton method. The joint inversion scheme is applied to a synthetic sample and a Berea sandstone sample. The jointly estimated pore size distributions are very close to the true model and results from other experimental method. Even when the knowledge of the petrophysical models of the sample is incomplete, the joint inversion can still capture the main features of the pore size distribution of the samples, including the general shape and relative peak positions of the distribution curves. It is also found from the numerical example that the surface relaxivity of the sample could be extracted with the joint inversion of NMR and SIP data if the diffusion coefficient of the ions in the electrical double layer is known. Comparing to individual inversions, the joint inversion could improve the resolution of the estimated pore size distribution because of the addition of extra data sets. The proposed approach might constitute a first step towards a comprehensive joint inversion that can extract the full pore geometry information of a geomaterial from NMR and SIP data.

  20. Aspects of the winter predator--prey relationship between sauger and threadfin shad in Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGee, M.V.; Griffith, J.S.; McLean, R.B.

    1978-04-01

    This study sought to determine the impact of cold-induced mortality and impingement of threadfin shad (Dorsoma petenense) on the food consumption and prey selection of sauger (Stizostedion canadense), and to estimate the ability of sauger to digest meals consumed at low temperatures in winter. Prey selection of sauger was monitored from November 1976 through April 1977. Stomach contents of 536 sauger indicated threadfin provided the entire forage base for sauger through January. Food consumption of sauger was reduced and prey selection shifted to other species after January due to the combined effects of predation, impingement, and natural mortality of cold-stressed threadfin. Threadfin shad of a size available to most sauger were virtually eliminated by February. From February through April some sauger utilized alternate prey species. Laboratory digestion rate studies of sauger indicated digestion of force-fed meals of 4 to 7 g fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) could proceed to 90 percent completion in 54 h at 5 C, 47 hr at 10 C, and 25 hr at 15 C. Conclusions of this study are: (1) that threadfin shad were the most abundant and vulnerable prey species available to and utilized by sauger during the late fall and winter months; (2) extensive mortalities of threadfin due to cold-stress increased sauger predation on four alternate prey species; (3) sauger continued feeding and digesting meals at temperatures between 5 and 15 C every 1 to 3 days; (4) sauger stored excess energy available from threadfin early in the winter as visceral fat which was available later when food consumption was reduced.

  1. Aspects of the winter predator--prey relationship between sauger and threadfin shad in Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGee, M.V.; Griffith, J.S.; McLean, R.B.

    1978-01-01

    This study sought to determine the impact of cold-induced mortality and impingement of threadfin shad (Dorsoma petenense) on the food consumption and prey selection of sauger (Stizostedion canadense), and to estimate the ability of sauger to digest meals consumed at low temperatures in winter. Prey selection of sauger was monitored from November 1976 through April 1977. Stomach contents of 536 sauger indicated threadfin provided the entire forage base for sauger through January. Food consumption of sauger was reduced and prey selection shifted to other species after January due to the combined effects of predation, impingement, and natural mortality of cold-stressed threadfin. Threadfin shad of a size available to most sauger were virtually eliminated by February. From February through April some sauger utilized alternate prey species. Laboratory digestion rate studies of sauger indicated digestion of force-fed meals of 4 to 7 g fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) could proceed to 90 percent completion in 54 h at 5 C, 47 hr at 10 C, and 25 hr at 15 C. Conclusions of this study are: (1) that threadfin shad were the most abundant and vulnerable prey species available to and utilized by sauger during the late fall and winter months; (2) extensive mortalities of threadfin due to cold-stress increased sauger predation on four alternate prey species; (3) sauger continued feeding and digesting meals at temperatures between 5 and 15 C every 1 to 3 days; (4) sauger stored excess energy available from threadfin early in the winter as visceral fat which was available later when food consumption was reduced

  2. Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Brendan J; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D; Collman, Ronald G; Bushman, Frederic D; Li, Hongzhe

    2015-08-01

    The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence-absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Size and shape of soil humic acids estimated by viscosity and molecular weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahigashi, Masayuki; Sumida, Hiroaki; Yamamoto, Kazuhiko

    2005-04-15

    Ultrafiltration fractions of three soil humic acids were characterized by viscometry and high performance size-exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) in order to estimate shapes and hydrodynamic sizes. Intrinsic viscosities under given solute/solvent/temperature conditions were obtained by extrapolating the concentration dependence of reduced viscosities to zero concentration. Molecular mass (weight average molecular weight (M (w)) and number average molecular weight (M (n))) and hydrodynamic radius (R(H)) were determined by HPSEC using pullulan as calibrant. Values of M (w) and M (n) ranged from 15 to 118 x 10(3) and from 9 to 50 x 10(3) (g mol(-1)), respectively. Polydispersity, as indicated by M (w)/M (n), increased with increasing filter size from 1.5 to 2.4. The hydrodynamic radii (R(H)) ranged between 2.2 and 6.4 nm. For each humic acid, M (w) and [eta] were related. Mark-Houwink coefficients calculated on the basis of the M (w)-[eta] relationships suggested restricted flexible chains for two of the humic acids and a branched structure for the third humic acid. Those structures probably behave as hydrated sphere colloids in a good solvent. Hydrodynamic radii of fractions calculated from [eta] using Einstein's equation, which is applicable to hydrated sphere colloids, ranged from 2.2 to 7.1 nm. These dimensions are fit to the size of nanospaces on and between clay minerals and micropores in soil particle aggregates. On the other hand, the good agreement of R(H) values obtained by applying Einstein's equation with those directly determined by HPSEC suggests that pullulan is a suitable calibrant for estimation of molecular mass and size of humic acids by HPSEC.

  4. GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. A comparison study of size-specific dose estimate calculation methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parikh, Roshni A. [Rainbow Babies and Children' s Hospital, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Cleveland, OH (United States); University of Michigan Health System, Department of Radiology, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Wien, Michael A.; Jordan, David W.; Ciancibello, Leslie; Berlin, Sheila C. [Rainbow Babies and Children' s Hospital, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Cleveland, OH (United States); Novak, Ronald D. [Rainbow Babies and Children' s Hospital, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Cleveland, OH (United States); Rebecca D. Considine Research Institute, Children' s Hospital Medical Center of Akron, Center for Mitochondrial Medicine Research, Akron, OH (United States); Klahr, Paul [CT Clinical Science, Philips Healthcare, Highland Heights, OH (United States); Soriano, Stephanie [Rainbow Babies and Children' s Hospital, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Cleveland, OH (United States); University of Washington, Department of Radiology, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2018-01-15

    The size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) has emerged as an improved metric for use by medical physicists and radiologists for estimating individual patient dose. Several methods of calculating SSDE have been described, ranging from patient thickness or attenuation-based (automated and manual) measurements to weight-based techniques. To compare the accuracy of thickness vs. weight measurement of body size to allow for the calculation of the size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) in pediatric body CT. We retrospectively identified 109 pediatric body CT examinations for SSDE calculation. We examined two automated methods measuring a series of level-specific diameters of the patient's body: method A used the effective diameter and method B used the water-equivalent diameter. Two manual methods measured patient diameter at two predetermined levels: the superior endplate of L2, where body width is typically most thin, and the superior femoral head or iliac crest (for scans that did not include the pelvis), where body width is typically most thick; method C averaged lateral measurements at these two levels from the CT projection scan, and method D averaged lateral and anteroposterior measurements at the same two levels from the axial CT images. Finally, we used body weight to characterize patient size, method E, and compared this with the various other measurement methods. Methods were compared across the entire population as well as by subgroup based on body width. Concordance correlation (ρ{sub c}) between each of the SSDE calculation methods (methods A-E) was greater than 0.92 across the entire population, although the range was wider when analyzed by subgroup (0.42-0.99). When we compared each SSDE measurement method with CTDI{sub vol,} there was poor correlation, ρ{sub c}<0.77, with percentage differences between 20.8% and 51.0%. Automated computer algorithms are accurate and efficient in the calculation of SSDE. Manual methods based on patient thickness provide

  6. A Web-based Simulator for Sample Size and Power Estimation in Animal Carcinogenicity Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Moon

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available A Web-based statistical tool for sample size and power estimation in animal carcinogenicity studies is presented in this paper. It can be used to provide a design with sufficient power for detecting a dose-related trend in the occurrence of a tumor of interest when competing risks are present. The tumors of interest typically are occult tumors for which the time to tumor onset is not directly observable. It is applicable to rodent tumorigenicity assays that have either a single terminal sacrifice or multiple (interval sacrifices. The design is achieved by varying sample size per group, number of sacrifices, number of sacrificed animals at each interval, if any, and scheduled time points for sacrifice. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out in this tool to simulate experiments of rodent bioassays because no closed-form solution is available. It takes design parameters for sample size and power estimation as inputs through the World Wide Web. The core program is written in C and executed in the background. It communicates with the Web front end via a Component Object Model interface passing an Extensible Markup Language string. The proposed statistical tool is illustrated with an animal study in lung cancer prevention research.

  7. Sample size methods for estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konikoff, Jacob; Brookmeyer, Ron

    2015-12-01

    Understanding HIV incidence, the rate at which new infections occur in populations, is critical for tracking and surveillance of the epidemic. In this article, we derive methods for determining sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence with sufficient precision. We further show how to specify sample sizes for two successive cross-sectional surveys to detect changes in incidence with adequate power. In these surveys biomarkers such as CD4 cell count, viral load, and recently developed serological assays are used to determine which individuals are in an early disease stage of infection. The total number of individuals in this stage, divided by the number of people who are uninfected, is used to approximate the incidence rate. Our methods account for uncertainty in the durations of time spent in the biomarker defined early disease stage. We find that failure to account for this uncertainty when designing surveys can lead to imprecise estimates of incidence and underpowered studies. We evaluated our sample size methods in simulations and found that they performed well in a variety of underlying epidemics. Code for implementing our methods in R is available with this article at the Biometrics website on Wiley Online Library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Determining an Estimate of an Equivalence Relation for Moderate and Large Sized Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Klukowski

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two approaches to determining estimates of an equivalence relation on the basis of pairwise comparisons with random errors. Obtaining such an estimate requires the solution of a discrete programming problem which minimizes the sum of the differences between the form of the relation and the comparisons. The problem is NP hard and can be solved with the use of exact algorithms for sets of moderate size, i.e. about 50 elements. In the case of larger sets, i.e. at least 200 comparisons for each element, it is necessary to apply heuristic algorithms. The paper presents results (a statistical preprocessing, which enable us to determine the optimal or a near-optimal solution with acceptable computational cost. They include: the development of a statistical procedure producing comparisons with low probabilities of errors and a heuristic algorithm based on such comparisons. The proposed approach guarantees the applicability of such estimators for any size of set. (original abstract

  9. Prey capture by harbour porpoises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verfuss, Ursula; Miller, Lee; Pilz, Peter

    their ultrasonic clicks as biosonar for orientation and detection of prey (mostly smaller pelagic and bottom dwelling fish), and for communication.  For studying wild animals, hydrophone arrays [Villadsgaard et al. J.Exp.Biol. 210 (2007)] and acoustic (time/depth) tags [Akamatsu et al. Deep Sea Research II 54...... (2007)] have been used.  For studying captive animals, arrays and video techniques [Verfuß et al. J.Exp.Biol. 208 (2005)] as well as miniature acoustic-behavioral tags [Deruiter et al. JASA 123 (2008)] have been used.  While searching for prey, harbor porpoises use clicks at long intervals (>50 ms......) that progressively decrease when closing on a landmark.  The source levels of captive animals reduce by about half for each halving of the distance to the target.  After detecting the prey, the click interval first stabilizes at about 50 ms and then becomes progressively shorter while approaching the prey...

  10. Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

    2015-01-01

    Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

  11. Dynamics analysis of a predator-prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xin-You; Qin, Ni-Ni; Huo, Hai-Feng

    2018-12-01

    In this paper, a predator-prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species is given. In the absence of time delay, the existence and stability of all equilibria are investigated. In the presence of time delay, some sufficient conditions of the local stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by analysing the corresponding characteristic equation, and the properties of Hopf bifurcation are given by using the normal form theory and centre manifold theorem. Furthermore, an optimal harvesting policy is investigated by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytic results.

  12. Estimation and control of droplet size and frequency in projected spray mode of a gas metal arc welding (GMAW) process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anzehaee, Mohammad Mousavi; Haeri, Mohammad

    2011-07-01

    New estimators are designed based on the modified force balance model to estimate the detaching droplet size, detached droplet size, and mean value of droplet detachment frequency in a gas metal arc welding process. The proper droplet size for the process to be in the projected spray transfer mode is determined based on the modified force balance model and the designed estimators. Finally, the droplet size and the melting rate are controlled using two proportional-integral (PI) controllers to achieve high weld quality by retaining the transfer mode and generating appropriate signals as inputs of the weld geometry control loop. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. An engineering method for estimating notch-size effect in fatigue tests on steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Paul; Hardrath, Herbert F

    1952-01-01

    Neuber's proposed method of calculating a practical factor of stress concentration for parts containing notches of arbitrary size depends on the knowledge of a "new material constant" which can be established only indirectly. In this paper, the new constant has been evaluated for a large variety of steels from fatigue tests reported in the literature, attention being confined to stresses near the endurance limit. Reasonably satisfactory results were obtained with the assumption that the constant depends only on the tensile strength of the steel. Even in cases where the notches were cracks of which only the depth was known, reasonably satisfactory agreement was found between calculated and experimental factors. It is also shown that the material constant can be used in an empirical formula to estimate the size effect on unnotched specimens tested in bending fatigue.

  14. CATCH ESTIMATION AND SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF BILLFISHES LANDED IN PORT OF BENOA, BALI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram Setyadji

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Billfishes are generally considered as by-product in tuna long line fisheries that have high economic value in the market. By far, the information about Indian Ocean billfish biology and fisheries especially in Indonesia is very limited. This research aimed to elucidate the estimation of production and size distribution of billfishes landed in port of Benoa during 2010 (February – December through daily observation at the processing plants. The result showed that the landings dominated by Swordfish (Xiphias gladius 54.9%, Blue marlin (Makaira mazara 17.8% and Black marlin (Makaira indica 13.0% respectively, followed by small amount of striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax, sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus, and shortbil spearfish (Tetrapturus Angustirostris. Generally the individual size of billfishes range between 68 and 206 cm (PFL, and showing negative allometric pattern except on swordfish that was isometric. Most of the billfish landed haven’t reached their first sexual maturity.

  15. The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

    2016-02-01

    Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

  16. Estimating Effect Sizes and Expected Replication Probabilities from GWAS Summary Statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holland, Dominic; Wang, Yunpeng; Thompson, Wesley K

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS) result in millions of summary statistics ("z-scores") for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with phenotypes. These rich datasets afford deep insights into the nature and extent of genetic contributions to complex phenotypes such as psychiatric......-scores, as such knowledge would enhance causal SNP and gene discovery, help elucidate mechanistic pathways, and inform future study design. Here we present a parsimonious methodology for modeling effect sizes and replication probabilities, relying only on summary statistics from GWAS substudies, and a scheme allowing...... for estimating the degree of polygenicity of the phenotype and predicting the proportion of chip heritability explainable by genome-wide significant SNPs in future studies with larger sample sizes. We apply the model to recent GWAS of schizophrenia (N = 82,315) and putamen volume (N = 12,596), with approximately...

  17. SpotCaliper: fast wavelet-based spot detection with accurate size estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Püspöki, Zsuzsanna; Sage, Daniel; Ward, John Paul; Unser, Michael

    2016-04-15

    SpotCaliper is a novel wavelet-based image-analysis software providing a fast automatic detection scheme for circular patterns (spots), combined with the precise estimation of their size. It is implemented as an ImageJ plugin with a friendly user interface. The user is allowed to edit the results by modifying the measurements (in a semi-automated way), extract data for further analysis. The fine tuning of the detections includes the possibility of adjusting or removing the original detections, as well as adding further spots. The main advantage of the software is its ability to capture the size of spots in a fast and accurate way. http://bigwww.epfl.ch/algorithms/spotcaliper/ zsuzsanna.puspoki@epfl.ch Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Modeling of magnetic fields on a cylindrical surface and associated parameter estimation for development of a size sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Song; Rajamani, Rajesh

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops analytical sensing principles for estimation of circumferential size of a cylindrical surface using magnetic sensors. An electromagnet and magnetic sensors are used on a wearable band for measurement of leg size. In order to enable robust size estimation during rough real-world use of the wearable band, three estimation algorithms are developed based on models of the magnetic field variation over a cylindrical surface. The magnetic field models developed include those for a dipole and for a uniformly magnetized cylinder. The estimation algorithms used include a linear regression equation, an extended Kalman filter and an unscented Kalman filter. Experimental laboratory tests show that the size sensor in general performs accurately, yielding sub-millimeter estimation errors. The unscented Kalman filter yields the best performance that is robust to bias and misalignment errors. The size sensor developed herein can be used for monitoring swelling due to fluid accumulation in the lower leg and a number of other biomedical applications. (paper)

  19. Nephila clavipes spiders (Araneae: Nephilidae) keep track of captured prey counts: testing for a sense of numerosity in an orb-weaver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Rafael L; Briceño, R D; Briceño-Aguilar, Eduardo; Höbel, Gerlinde

    2015-01-01

    Nephila clavipes golden orb-web spiders accumulate prey larders on their webs and search for them if they are removed from their web. Spiders that lose larger larders (i.e., spiders that lose larders consisting of more prey items) search for longer intervals, indicating that the spiders form memories of the size of the prey larders they have accumulated, and use those memories to regulate recovery efforts when the larders are pilfered. Here, we ask whether the spiders represent prey counts (i.e., numerosity) or a continuous integration of prey quantity (mass) in their memories. We manipulated larder sizes in treatments that varied in either prey size or prey numbers but were equivalent in total prey quantity (mass). We then removed the larders to elicit searching and used the spiders' searching behavior as an assay of their representations in memory. Searching increased with prey quantity (larder size) and did so more steeply with higher prey counts than with single prey of larger sizes. Thus, Nephila spiders seem to track prey quantity in two ways, but to attend more to prey numerosity. We discuss alternatives for continuous accumulator mechanisms that remain to be tested against the numerosity hypothesis, and the evolutionary and adaptive significance of evidence suggestive of numerosity in a sit-and-wait invertebrate predator.

  20. Estimation of the sizes of hot nuclear systems from particle-particle large angle kinematical correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Ville, J.L.; Bizard, G.; Durand, D.; Jin, G.M.; Rosato, E.

    1990-06-01

    Light fragment emission, when triggered by large transverse momentum protons shows specific kinematical correlations due to recoil effects of the excited emitting source. Such effects have been observed in azimuthal angular distributions of He-particles produced in collisions induced by 94 MeV/u 16 0 ions on Al, Ni and Au targets. A model calculation assuming a two-stage mechanism (formation and sequential decay of a hot source) gives a good description of these whole data. From this succesfull confrontation, it is possible to estimate the size of the emitting system

  1. Transferring diffractive optics from research to commercial applications: Part II - size estimations for selected markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, Robert

    2014-04-01

    In a series of two contributions, decisive business-related aspects of the current process status to transfer research results on diffractive optical elements (DOEs) into commercial solutions are discussed. In part I, the focus was on the patent landscape. Here, in part II, market estimations concerning DOEs for selected applications are presented, comprising classical spectroscopic gratings, security features on banknotes, DOEs for high-end applications, e.g., for the semiconductor manufacturing market and diffractive intra-ocular lenses. The derived market sizes are referred to the optical elements, itself, rather than to the enabled instruments. The estimated market volumes are mainly addressed to scientifically and technologically oriented optical engineers to serve as a rough classification of the commercial dimensions of DOEs in the different market segments and do not claim to be exhaustive.

  2. Influence of prey body characteristics and performance on predator selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Thomas H; McCormick, Mark I

    2009-03-01

    At the time of settlement to the reef environment, coral reef fishes differ in a number of characteristics that may influence their survival during a predatory encounter. This study investigated the selective nature of predation by both a multi-species predator pool, and a single common predator (Pseudochromis fuscus), on the reef fish, Pomacentrus amboinensis. The study focused on the early post-settlement period of P. amboinensis, when mortality, and hence selection, is known to be highest. Correlations between nine different measures of body condition/performance were examined at the time of settlement, in order to elucidate the relationships between different traits. Single-predator (P. fuscus) choice trials were conducted in 57.4-l aquaria with respect to three different prey characteristics [standard length (SL), body weight and burst swimming speed], whilst multi-species trials were conducted on open patch reefs, manipulating prey body weight only. Relationships between the nine measures of condition/performance were generally poor, with the strongest correlations occurring between the morphological measures and within the performance measures. During aquaria trials, P. fuscus was found to be selective with respect to prey SL only, with larger individuals being selected significantly more often. Multi-species predator communities, however, were selective with respect to prey body weight, with heavier individuals being selected significantly more often than their lighter counterparts. Our results suggest that under controlled conditions, body length may be the most important prey characteristic influencing prey survival during predatory encounters with P. fuscus. In such cases, larger prey size may actually be a distinct disadvantage to survival. However, these relationships appear to be more complex under natural conditions, where the expression of prey characteristics, the selectivity fields of a number of different predators, their relative abundance, and

  3. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

  5. Effect of CT image size and resolution on the accuracy of rock property estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazaikin, Y.; Gurevich, B.; Iglauer, S.; Khachkova, T.; Kolyukhin, D.; Lebedev, M.; Lisitsa, V.; Reshetova, G.

    2017-05-01

    In order to study the effect of the micro-CT scan resolution and size on the accuracy of upscaled digital rock property estimation of core samples Bentheimer sandstone images with the resolution varying from 0.9 μm to 24 μm are used. We statistically show that the correlation length of the pore-to-matrix distribution can be reliably determined for the images with the resolution finer than 9 voxels per correlation length and the representative volume for this property is about 153 correlation length. Similar resolution values for the statistically representative volume are also valid for the estimation of the total porosity, specific surface area, mean curvature, and topology of the pore space. Only the total porosity and the number of isolated pores are stably recovered, whereas geometry and the topological measures of the pore space are strongly affected by the resolution change. We also simulate fluid flow in the pore space and estimate permeability and tortuosity of the sample. The results demonstrate that the representative volume for the transport property calculation should be greater than 50 correlation lengths of pore-to-matrix distribution. On the other hand, permeability estimation based on the statistical analysis of equivalent realizations shows some weak influence of the resolution on the transport properties. The reason for this might be that the characteristic scale of the particular physical processes may affect the result stronger than the model (image) scale.

  6. Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, María; Andrés-Costa, María Jesús; Picó, Yolanda

    2017-02-05

    Wastewater can provide a wealth of epidemiologic data on common drugs consumed and on health and nutritional problems based on the biomarkers excreted into community sewage systems. One of the biggest uncertainties of these studies is the estimation of the number of inhabitants served by the treatment plants. Twelve human urine biomarkers -5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), acesulfame, atenolol, caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, creatinine, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), naproxen, salicylic acid (SA) and hydroxycotinine (OHCOT)- were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to estimate population size. The results reveal that populations calculated from cotinine, 5-HIAA and caffeine are commonly in agreement with those calculated by the hydrochemical parameters. Creatinine is too unstable to be applicable. HCTZ, naproxen, codeine, OHCOT and carbamazepine, under or overestimate the population compared to the hydrochemical population estimates but showed constant results through the weekdays. The consumption of cannabis, cocaine, heroin and bufotenine in Valencia was estimated for a week using different population calculations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The Effects of Metal on Size Specific Dose Estimation (SSDE) in CT: A Phantom Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsanea, Maram M.

    Over the past number of years there has been a significant increase in the awareness of radiation dose from use of computed tomography (CT). Efforts have been made to reduce radiation dose from CT and to better quantify dose being delivered. However, unfortunately, these dose metrics such as CTDI vol are not a specific patient dose. In 2011, the size-specific dose estimation (SSDE) was introduced by AAPM TG-204 which accounts for the physical size of the patient. However, the approach presented in TG-204 ignores the importance of the attenuation differences in the body. In 2014, a newer methodology that accounted for tissue attenuation was introduced by the AAPM TG-220 based on the concept of water equivalent diameter, Dw. One of the limitation of TG-220 is that there is no estimation of the dose while highly attenuating objects such as metal is present in the body. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the accuracy of size-specific dose estimates in CT in the presence of simulated metal prostheses using a conventional PMMA CTDI phantom at different phantom diameter (body and head) and beam energy. Titanium, Cobalt- chromium and stainless steel alloys rods were used in the study. Two approaches were used as introduced by AAPM TG-204 and 220 utilizing the effective diameter and the Dw calculations. From these calculations, conversion factors have been derived that could be applied to the measured CTDIvol to convert it to specific patient dose, or size specific dose estimate, (SSDE). Radiation dose in tissue (f-factor = 0.94) was measured at various chamber positions with the presence of metal. Following, an average weighted tissue dose (AWTD) was calculated in a manner similar to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw). In general, for the 32 cm body phantom SSDE220 provided more accurate estimates of AWTD than did SSDE204. For smaller patient size, represented by the 16 cm head phantom, the SSDE204 was a more accurate estimate of AWTD that that of SSDE220. However, as the

  8. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manan Gupta

    Full Text Available Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates

  9. Lesion size estimator of cardiac radiofrequency ablation at different common locations with different tip temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Yu-Chi; Choy, Young Bin; Haemmerich, Dieter; Vorperian, Vicken R; Webster, John G

    2004-10-01

    Finite element method (FEM) analysis has become a common method to analyze the lesion formation during temperature-controlled radiofrequency (RF) cardiac ablation. We present a process of FEM modeling a system including blood, myocardium, and an ablation catheter with a thermistor embedded at the tip. The simulation used a simple proportional-integral (PI) controller to control the entire process operated in temperature-controlled mode. Several factors affect the lesion size such as target temperature, blood flow rate, and application time. We simulated the time response of RF ablation at different locations by using different target temperatures. The applied sites were divided into two groups each with a different convective heat transfer coefficient. The first group was high-flow such as the atrioventricular (AV) node and the atrial aspect of the AV annulus, and the other was low-flow such as beneath the valve or inside the coronary sinus. Results showed the change of lesion depth and lesion width with time, under different conditions. We collected data for all conditions and used it to create a database. We implemented a user-interface, the lesion size estimator, where the user enters set temperature and location. Based on the database, the software estimated lesion dimensions during different applied durations. This software could be used as a first-step predictor to help the electrophysiologist choose treatment parameters.

  10. Foraging behavior of larval cod ( Gadus morhua ) influenced by prey density and hunger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Peter

    1995-01-01

    activity, prey selectivity, and hunger in a variable prey environment. Gadus morhua eggs were collected in March 1992 and 1993 from the Kattegat area, Denmark, fertilised and incubated in the laboratory. After hatching, the larvae were transferred to rearing tanks of 172 litres. The behaviour of larvae (6...... their prey size selectivity. Behavioural response was to a large degree determined by the level of hunger, represented by the number of newly ingested prey in the gut. The findings show that cod larvae have a flexible response to changes in feeding conditions and imply that larvae can grow and survive even...

  11. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Caley

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  12. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  13. An evaluation of portion size estimation aids: Consumer perspectives on their effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, Gemma P; Livingstone, M Barbara E; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Spence, Michelle; Dean, Moira; O'Brien, Sinead; Gibney, Eileen R; Wallace, Julie M W; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Kerr, Maeve A

    2017-07-01

    This qualitative study aimed to investigate consumer opinions on the usefulness of portion size estimation aids (PSEA); consumer preferences in terms of format and context for use; and the level of detail of guidance considered necessary for the effective application of PSEA. Six focus groups (three to eight participants per group) were conducted to elicit views on PSEA. The discussions were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed by two independent researchers using a template approach. The focus groups were conducted in 2013 by an experienced moderator in various sites across the island of Ireland (three in the Republic of Ireland and three in Northern Ireland) including local leisure, community and resource centres; the home environment; and a university meeting room. General population, males (n = 17) and females (n = 15) aged 18-64 years old. Participants were recruited from both urban and rural locations representing a range of socio-economic groups. The majority of participants deemed the coloured portion pots and disposable plastic cup (household measures) to be useful particularly for the estimation of amorphous cereal products (e.g. breakfast cereals). Preferences were evident for "visual" PSEA (reference objects, household measures and food packaging) rather than 'quantities and measures' such as weighing in grams or ounces. Participants stated that PS education should be concise, consistent, from a reputable source, initiated at school age and communicated innovatively e.g. mobile app or TV advertisement. Guidance in relation to gender, age and activity level was favoured over a "one size fits all" approach. This study identified consumer preferences and acceptance of "visual" PSEA such as portion pots/cups to estimate appropriate PS of amorphous grain foods such as breakfast cereals, pasta and rice. Concise information from a reputable source in relation to gender, age and activity level should accompany PSEA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

  14. Multiple sensitive estimation and optimal sample size allocation in the item sum technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perri, Pier Francesco; Rueda García, María Del Mar; Cobo Rodríguez, Beatriz

    2018-01-01

    For surveys of sensitive issues in life sciences, statistical procedures can be used to reduce nonresponse and social desirability response bias. Both of these phenomena provoke nonsampling errors that are difficult to deal with and can seriously flaw the validity of the analyses. The item sum technique (IST) is a very recent indirect questioning method derived from the item count technique that seeks to procure more reliable responses on quantitative items than direct questioning while preserving respondents' anonymity. This article addresses two important questions concerning the IST: (i) its implementation when two or more sensitive variables are investigated and efficient estimates of their unknown population means are required; (ii) the determination of the optimal sample size to achieve minimum variance estimates. These aspects are of great relevance for survey practitioners engaged in sensitive research and, to the best of our knowledge, were not studied so far. In this article, theoretical results for multiple estimation and optimal allocation are obtained under a generic sampling design and then particularized to simple random sampling and stratified sampling designs. Theoretical considerations are integrated with a number of simulation studies based on data from two real surveys and conducted to ascertain the efficiency gain derived from optimal allocation in different situations. One of the surveys concerns cannabis consumption among university students. Our findings highlight some methodological advances that can be obtained in life sciences IST surveys when optimal allocation is achieved. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Ezoe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

  16. Comparison of known food weights with image-based portion-size automated estimation and adolescents' self-reported portion size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Christina D; Chae, Junghoon; Schap, TusaRebecca E; Kerr, Deborah A; Delp, Edward J; Ebert, David S; Boushey, Carol J

    2012-03-01

    Diet is a critical element of diabetes self-management. An emerging area of research is the use of images for dietary records using mobile telephones with embedded cameras. These tools are being designed to reduce user burden and to improve accuracy of portion-size estimation through automation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the error of automatically determined portion weights compared to known portion weights of foods and (2) to compare the error between automation and human. Adolescents (n = 15) captured images of their eating occasions over a 24 h period. All foods and beverages served were weighed. Adolescents self-reported portion sizes for one meal. Image analysis was used to estimate portion weights. Data analysis compared known weights, automated weights, and self-reported portions. For the 19 foods, the mean ratio of automated weight estimate to known weight ranged from 0.89 to 4.61, and 9 foods were within 0.80 to 1.20. The largest error was for lettuce and the most accurate was strawberry jam. The children were fairly accurate with portion estimates for two foods (sausage links, toast) using one type of estimation aid and two foods (sausage links, scrambled eggs) using another aid. The automated method was fairly accurate for two foods (sausage links, jam); however, the 95% confidence intervals for the automated estimates were consistently narrower than human estimates. The ability of humans to estimate portion sizes of foods remains a problem and a perceived burden. Errors in automated portion-size estimation can be systematically addressed while minimizing the burden on people. Future applications that take over the burden of these processes may translate to better diabetes self-management. © 2012 Diabetes Technology Society.

  17. Sub-indicator: Prey fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidel, Brian C.; Dunlop, Erin

    2017-01-01

    Prey fish communities across the Great Lakes continue to change, although the direction and magnitude of those changes are not consistent across the lakes. The metrics used to categorize prey fish status in this and previous periods are based on elements that are common among each of the lake’s Fish Community Objectives and include diversity and the relative role of native species in the prey fish communities. The diversity index categorized three of lakes as ‘fair’, while Superior and Erie were ‘good’ (Table 1). The short term trend, from the previous period (2008-2010) to the current period (2011-2014) found diversity in Erie and Superior to be unchanging, but the other three lakes to be ‘deteriorating’, resulting in an overall trend categorization of ‘undetermined’ (Table 1). The long term diversity trend suggested Lakes Superior and Erie have the most diverse prey communities although the index for those prey fish have been quite variable over time (Figure 1). In Lake Huron, where non-native alewife have substantially declined, the diversity index has also declined. The continued dominance of alewife in Lake Ontario (96% of the prey fish biomass) resulted in the lowest diversity index value (Figure 1). The proportion of native species within the community was judged as ‘good’ in Lakes Superior and Huron, ‘fair’ in Michigan and Erie and ‘poor’ in Ontario (Table 2). The short term trend was improving in in all lakes except Michigan (‘deteriorating’) and Ontario (‘unchanging’), resulting in an overall short term trend of ‘undetermined’ (Table 2). Over the current period, Lake Superior consistently had the highest proportion native prey fish (87%) while Lake Ontario had the lowest (1%) (Figure 2). Lake Michigan’s percent native has declined as round goby increase and comprises a greater proportion of the community. Native prey fish make up 51% of Lake Erie, although basin-specific values differed (Figure 2). Most notably

  18. Sizing up arthropod genomes: an evaluation of the impact of environmental variation on genome size estimates by flow cytometry and the use of qPCR as a method of estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, T Ryan; Nathwani, Paula; Bonnett, Tiffany R; Huber, Dezene P W

    2013-09-01

    A study was undertaken to evaluate both a pre-existing method and a newly proposed approach for the estimation of nuclear genome sizes in arthropods. First, concerns regarding the reliability of the well-established method of flow cytometry relating to impacts of rearing conditions on genome size estimates were examined. Contrary to previous reports, a more carefully controlled test found negligible environmental effects on genome size estimates in the fly Drosophila melanogaster. Second, a more recently touted method based on quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was examined in terms of ease of use, efficiency, and (most importantly) accuracy using four test species: the flies Drosophila melanogaster and Musca domestica and the beetles Tribolium castaneum and Dendroctonus ponderosa. The results of this analysis demonstrated that qPCR has the tendency to produce substantially different genome size estimates from other established techniques while also being far less efficient than existing methods.

  19. Feeding, prey selection and prey encounter mechanisms in the heterotrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Titelman, J.

    1998-01-01

    /or that microscale shear brings it into contact with prey. Noctiluca scintillans has a specific carbon content 1-2 orders of magnitude less than that typical for protists and, thus, an inflated volume. It also has a density slightly less than that of the ambient water and therefore ascends at high velocities...... (similar to 1 m h(- 1)). In stagnant water, clearance rates of latex spheres (5-80 mu m) increased approximately with prey particle size squared. This scaling is consistent with N.scintillans being an interception feeder. However, absolute clearance rates were substantially lower than those predicted...... higher rates than latex beads and other phytoplankters, particularly dinoflagellates. We propose that diatoms stick more efficiently than latex beads to the mucus of N.scintillans and that dinoflagellates reduce fatal contact behaviorally. We conclude that N.scintillans is an interception feeder...

  20. Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from Pathogen Deep-Sequencing Data, with an Application to Human Influenza A Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel Leonard, Ashley; Weissman, Daniel B; Greenbaum, Benjamin; Ghedin, Elodie; Koelle, Katia

    2017-07-15

    The bottleneck governing infectious disease transmission describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host. Accurate quantification of the bottleneck size is particularly important for rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza virus, as narrow bottlenecks reduce the amount of transferred viral genetic diversity and, thus, may decrease the rate of viral adaptation. Previous studies have estimated bottleneck sizes governing viral transmission by using statistical analyses of variants identified in pathogen sequencing data. These analyses, however, did not account for variant calling thresholds and stochastic viral replication dynamics within recipient hosts. Because these factors can skew bottleneck size estimates, we introduce a new method for inferring bottleneck sizes that accounts for these factors. Through the use of a simulated data set, we first show that our method, based on beta-binomial sampling, accurately recovers transmission bottleneck sizes, whereas other methods fail to do so. We then apply our method to a data set of influenza A virus (IAV) infections for which viral deep-sequencing data from transmission pairs are available. We find that the IAV transmission bottleneck size estimates in this study are highly variable across transmission pairs, while the mean bottleneck size of 196 virions is consistent with a previous estimate for this data set. Furthermore, regression analysis shows a positive association between estimated bottleneck size and donor infection severity, as measured by temperature. These results support findings from experimental transmission studies showing that bottleneck sizes across transmission events can be variable and influenced in part by epidemiological factors. IMPORTANCE The transmission bottleneck size describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host and may affect the rate of pathogen adaptation within host populations. Recent

  1. Clay Caterpillar Whodunit: A Customizable Method for Studying Predator-Prey Interactions in the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rachel; Klemens, Jeffrey A.; Agosta, Salvatore J.; Bartlow, Andrew W.; Wood, Steve; Carlson, Jason A.; Stratford, Jeffrey A.; Steele, Michael A.

    2013-01-01

    Predator-prey dynamics are an important concept in ecology, often serving as an introduction to the field of community ecology. However, these dynamics are difficult for students to observe directly. We describe a methodology that employs model caterpillars made of clay to estimate rates of predator attack on a prey species. This approach can be…

  2. The diet of otters ( Lutra lutra L.) in Danish freshwater habitats : comparisons of prey fish populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taastrom, H.M.; Jacobsen, Lene

    1999-01-01

    Otter spraints from five Danish freshwater localities were analysed. In all localities fish was the main prey (76-99% of estimated bulk), especially in winter. Depending on locality, the prey fish mainly consisted of cyprinids (Cyprinidae), percids (Percidae) or salmonids (Salmonidae). Seasonal v...

  3. Risk and size estimation of debris flow caused by storm rainfall in mountain regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG; Genwei

    2003-01-01

    Debris flow is a common disaster in mountain regions. The valley slope, storm rainfall and amassed sand-rock materials in a watershed may influence the types of debris flow. The bursting of debris flow is not a pure random event. Field investigations show the periodicity of its burst, but no directive evidence has been found yet. A risk definition of debris flow is proposed here based upon the accumulation and the starting conditions of loose material in channel. According to this definition, the risk of debris flow is of quasi-periodicity. A formula of risk estimation is derived. Analysis of relative factors reveals the relationship between frequency and size of debris flow. For a debris flow creek, the longer the time interval between two occurrences of debris flows is, the bigger the bursting event will be.

  4. Food photography II: use of food photographs for estimating portion size and the nutrient content of meals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, M; Atkinson, M; Darbyshire, S

    1996-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine the errors in the conceptualization of portion size using photographs. Male and female volunteers aged 18-90 years (n 136) from a wide variety of social and occupational backgrounds completed 602 assessments of portion size in relation to food photographs. Subjects served themselves between four and six foods at one meal (breakfast, lunch or dinner). Portion sizes were weighed by the investigators at the time of serving, and any waste was weighed at the end of the meal. Within 5 min of the end of the meal, subjects were shown photographs depicting each of the foods just consumed. For each food there were eight photographs showing portion sizes in equal increments from the 5th to the 95th centile of the distribution of portion weights observed in The Dietary and Nutritional Survey of British Adults (Gregory et al. 1990). Subjects were asked to indicate on a visual analogue scale the size of the portion consumed in relation to the eight photographs. The nutrient contents of meals were estimated from food composition tables. There were large variations in the estimation of portion sizes from photographs. Butter and margarine portion sizes tended to be substantially overestimated. In general, small portion sizes tended to be overestimated, and large portion sizes underestimated. Older subjects overestimated portion size more often than younger subjects. Excluding butter and margarine, the nutrient content of meals based on estimated portion sizes was on average within +/- 7% of the nutrient content based on the amounts consumed, except for vitamin C (21% overestimate), and for subjects over 65 years (15-20% overestimate for energy and fat). In subjects whose BMI was less than 25 kg/m2, the energy and fat contents of meals calculated from food composition tables and based on estimated portion size (excluding butter and margarine) were 5-10% greater than the nutrient content calculated using actual portion size, but for those

  5. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure

  6. Fear on the move: predator hunting mode predicts variation in prey mortality and plasticity in prey spatial response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Ament, Judith M; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2014-01-01

    Ecologists have long searched for a framework of a priori species traits to help predict predator-prey interactions in food webs. Empirical evidence has shown that predator hunting mode and predator and prey habitat domain are useful traits for explaining predator-prey interactions. Yet, individual experiments have yet to replicate predator hunting mode, calling into question whether predator impacts can be attributed to hunting mode or merely species identity. We tested the effects of spider predators with sit-and-wait, sit-and-pursue and active hunting modes on grasshopper habitat domain, activity and mortality in a grassland system. We replicated hunting mode by testing two spider predator species of each hunting mode on the same grasshopper prey species. We observed grasshoppers with and without each spider species in behavioural cages and measured their mortality rates, movements and habitat domains. We likewise measured the movements and habitat domains of spiders to characterize hunting modes. We found that predator hunting mode explained grasshopper mortality and spider and grasshopper movement activity and habitat domain size. Sit-and-wait spider predators covered small distances over a narrow domain space and killed fewer grasshoppers than sit-and-pursue and active predators, which ranged farther distances across broader domains and killed more grasshoppers, respectively. Prey adjusted their activity levels and horizontal habitat domains in response to predator presence and hunting mode: sedentary sit-and-wait predators with narrow domains caused grasshoppers to reduce activity in the same-sized domain space; more mobile sit-and-pursue predators with broader domains caused prey to reduce their activity within a contracted horizontal (but not vertical) domain space; and highly mobile active spiders led grasshoppers to increase their activity across the same domain area. All predators impacted prey activity, and sit-and-pursue predators generated strong

  7. Relation between electrocardiographic and enzymatic methods of estimating acute myocardial infarct size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindman, N; Grande, P; Harrell, F E; Anderson, C; Harrison, D; Ideker, R E; Selvester, R H; Wagner, G S

    1986-07-01

    The extent of initial acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and subsequent patient prognosis were studied using 2 independent indicators of AMI size. Two inexpensive, readily available techniques, the complete Selvester QRS score from the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram and the peak value of the isoenzyme MB of creatine kinase (CK-MB), were evaluated in 125 patients with initial AMI. The overall correlation between peak CK-MB and QRS score was fair (0.57), with marked difference according to anterior (0.72) or inferior (0.35) location. The prognostic capabilities of each measurement varied. Peak CK-MB provided significant information concerning hospital morbidity or early mortality (within 30 days) for both anterior (chi 2 = 9.83) and inferior (chi 2 = 7.68) AMI locations; however, the QRS score was significant only for anterior AMI (chi 2 = 9.50). For total 24-month mortality, the QRS score alone provided the most information (chi 2 = 10.0, p = 0.0016), which was not improved with the addition of CK-MB (chi 2 = 0.07, p = 0.79). This study shows a good relation between these 2 independent estimates of AMI size for patients with anterior AMI location. Both QRS and CK-MB results are significantly related to early morbidity and mortality; however, only the QRS score is related to total 24-month prognosis.

  8. ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF LATE VENEER IMPACTORS FROM IMPACT-INDUCED MIXING ON MERCURY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera-Valentin, E. G.; Barr, A. C.

    2014-01-01

    Late accretion of a ''veneer'' of compositionally diverse planetesimals may introduce chemical heterogeneity in the mantles of the terrestrial planets. The size of the late veneer objects is an important control on the angular momenta, eccentricities, and inclinations of the terrestrial planets, but current estimates range from meter-scale bodies to objects with diameters of thousands of kilometers. We use a three-dimensional global Monte Carlo model of impact cratering, excavation, and ejecta blanket formation to show that evidence of mantle heterogeneity can be preserved within ejecta blankets of mantle-exhuming impacts on terrestrial planets. Compositionally distinct provinces implanted at the time of the late veneer are most likely to be preserved in bodies whose subsequent geodynamical evolution is limited. Mercury may have avoided intensive mixing by solid-state convection during much of its history. Its subsequent bombardment may have then excavated evidence of primordial mantle heterogeneity introduced by the late veneer. Simple geometric arguments can predict the amount of mantle material in the ejecta blanket of mantle-exhuming impacts, and deviations in composition relative to geometric predictions can constrain the length-scale of chemical heterogeneities in the subsurface. A marked change in the relationship between mantle and ejecta composition occurs when chemically distinct provinces are ∼250 km in diameter; thus, evidence of bombardment by thousand-kilometer-sized objects should be readily apparent from the variation in compositions of ejecta blankets in Mercury's ancient cratered terrains

  9. Estimates of the Size Distribution of Meteoric Smoke Particles From Rocket-Borne Impact Probes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonsen, Tarjei; Havnes, Ove; Mann, Ingrid

    2017-11-01

    Ice particles populating noctilucent clouds and being responsible for polar mesospheric summer echoes exist around the mesopause in the altitude range from 80 to 90 km during polar summer. The particles are observed when temperatures around the mesopause reach a minimum, and it is presumed that they consist of water ice with inclusions of smaller mesospheric smoke particles (MSPs). This work provides estimates of the mean size distribution of MSPs through analysis of collision fragments of the ice particles populating the mesospheric dust layers. We have analyzed data from two triplets of mechanically identical rocket probes, MUltiple Dust Detector (MUDD), which are Faraday bucket detectors with impact grids that partly fragments incoming ice particles. The MUDD probes were launched from Andøya Space Center (69°17'N, 16°1'E) on two payloads during the MAXIDUSTY campaign on 30 June and 8 July 2016, respectively. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely that ice particles produce significant current to the detector, and that MSPs dominate the recorded current. The size distributions obtained from these currents, which reflect the MSP sizes, are described by inverse power laws with exponents of k˜ [3.3 ± 0.7, 3.7 ± 0.5] and k˜ [3.6 ± 0.8, 4.4 ± 0.3] for the respective flights. We derived two k values for each flight depending on whether the charging probability is proportional to area or volume of fragments. We also confirm that MSPs are probably abundant inside mesospheric ice particles larger than a few nanometers, and the volume filling factor can be a few percent for reasonable assumptions of particle properties.

  10. Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Westbrook

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution.

    The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here. Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.

  11. Gear and seasonal bias associated with abundance and size structure estimates for lentic freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Jesse R.; Quist, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    All freshwater fish sampling methods are biased toward particular species, sizes, and sexes and are further influenced by season, habitat, and fish behavior changes over time. However, little is known about gear-specific biases for many common fish species because few multiple-gear comparison studies exist that have incorporated seasonal dynamics. We sampled six lakes and impoundments representing a diversity of trophic and physical conditions in Iowa, USA, using multiple gear types (i.e., standard modified fyke net, mini-modified fyke net, sinking experimental gill net, bag seine, benthic trawl, boat-mounted electrofisher used diurnally and nocturnally) to determine the influence of sampling methodology and season on fisheries assessments. Specifically, we describe the influence of season on catch per unit effort, proportional size distribution, and the number of samples required to obtain 125 stock-length individuals for 12 species of recreational and ecological importance. Mean catch per unit effort generally peaked in the spring and fall as a result of increased sampling effectiveness in shallow areas and seasonal changes in habitat use (e.g., movement offshore during summer). Mean proportional size distribution decreased from spring to fall for white bass Morone chrysops, largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, and black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus, suggesting selectivity for large and presumably sexually mature individuals in the spring and summer. Overall, the mean number of samples required to sample 125 stock-length individuals was minimized in the fall with sinking experimental gill nets, a boat-mounted electrofisher used at night, and standard modified nets for 11 of the 12 species evaluated. Our results provide fisheries scientists with relative comparisons between several recommended standard sampling methods and illustrate the effects of seasonal variation on estimates of population indices that will be critical to

  12. Consideration of the usefulness of a size-specific dose estimate in pediatric CT examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujiguchi, Takakiyo; Obara, Hideki; Ono, Shuichi; Saito, Yoko; Kashiwakura, Ikuo

    2018-04-05

    Computed tomography (CT) has recently been utilized in various medical settings, and technological advances have resulted in its widespread use. However, medical radiation exposure associated with CT scans accounts for the largest share of examinations using radiation; thus, it is important to understand the organ dose and effective dose in detail. The CT dose index and dose-length product are used to evaluate the organ dose. However, evaluations using these indicators fail to consider the age and body type of patients. In this study, we evaluated the effective dose based on the CT examination data of 753 patients examined at our hospital using the size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) method, which can calculate the exposure dose with consideration of the physique of a patient. The results showed a large correlation between the SSDE conversion factor and physique, with a larger exposure dose in patients with a small physique when a single scan is considered. Especially for children, the SSDE conversion factor was found to be 2 or more. In addition, the patient exposed to the largest dose in this study was a 10-year-old, who received 40.4 mSv (five series/examination). In the future, for estimating exposure using the SSDE method and in cohort studies, the diagnostic reference level of SSDE should be determined and a low-exposure imaging protocol should be developed to predict the risk of CT exposure and to maintain the quality of diagnosis with better radiation protection of patients.

  13. An Opto-Electronic Sensor for Detecting Soil Microarthropods and Estimating Their Size in Field Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csongor I. Gedeon

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Methods to estimate density of soil-dwelling arthropods efficiently, accurately and continuously are critical for investigating soil biological activity and evaluating soil management practices. Soil-dwelling arthropods are currently monitored manually. This method is invasive, and time- and labor-consuming. Here we describe an infrared opto-electronic sensor for detection of soil microarthropods in the size range of 0.4–10 mm. The sensor is built in a novel microarthropod trap designed for field conditions. It allows automated, on-line, in situ detection and body length estimation of soil microarthropods. In the opto-electronic sensor the light source is an infrared LED. Two plano-convex optical lenses are placed along the virtual optical axis. One lens on the receiver side is placed between the observation space at 0.5–1 times its focal length from the sensor, and another emitter side lens is placed between the observation space and the light source in the same way. This paper describes the setup and operating mechanism of the sensor and the control unit, and through basic tests it demonstrates its potential in automated detection of soil microarthropods. The sensor may be used for monitoring activities, especially for remote observation activities in soil and insect ecology or pest control.

  14. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik

    2017-09-01

    High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  15. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Boessenkool

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  16. Inverse estimation of the particle size distribution using the Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Zhenzong; Qi, Hong; Yao, Yuchen; Ruan, Liming

    2015-01-01

    The Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA) is applied to retrieve the particle size distribution (PSD) for the first time. The direct problems are solved by the modified Anomalous Diffraction Approximation (ADA) and the Lambert–Beer Law. Firstly, three commonly used monomodal PSDs, i.e. the Rosin–Rammer (R–R) distribution, the normal (N–N) distribution and the logarithmic normal (L–N) distribution, and the bimodal Rosin–Rammer distribution function are estimated in the dependent model. All the results show that the FOA can be used as an effective technique to estimate the PSDs under the dependent model. Then, an optimal wavelength selection technique is proposed to improve the retrieval results of bimodal PSD. Finally, combined with two general functions, i.e. the Johnson's S B (J-S B ) function and the modified beta (M-β) function, the FOA is employed to recover actual measurement aerosol PSDs over Beijing and Hangzhou obtained from the aerosol robotic network (AERONET). All the numerical simulations and experiment results demonstrate that the FOA can be used to retrieve actual measurement PSDs, and more reliable and accurate results can be obtained, if the J-S B function is employed

  17. Doubling inequalities for anisotropic plate equations and applications to size estimates of inclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Cristo, M; Lin, C-L; Morassi, A; Rosset, E; Vessella, S; Wang, J-N

    2013-01-01

    We prove the upper and lower estimates of the area of an unknown elastic inclusion in a thin plate by one boundary measurement. The plate is made of non-homogeneous linearly elastic material belonging to a general class of anisotropy and the domain of the inclusion is a measurable subset of the plate. The size estimates are expressed in terms of the work exerted by a couple field applied at the boundary and of the induced transversal displacement and its normal derivative taken at the boundary of the plate. The main new mathematical tool is a doubling inequality for solutions to fourth-order elliptic equations whose principal part P(x, D) is the product of two second-order elliptic operators P 1 (x, D), P 2 (x, D) such that P 1 (0, D) = P 2 (0, D). The proof of the doubling inequality is based on the Carleman method, a sharp three-spheres inequality and a bootstrapping argument. (paper)

  18. A reduced estimate of the number of kilometre-sized near-Earth asteroids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinowitz, D; Helin, E; Lawrence, K; Pravdo, S

    2000-01-13

    Near-Earth asteroids are small (diameters Earth (they come within 1.3 AU of the Sun). Most have a chance of approximately 0.5% of colliding with the Earth in the next million years. The total number of such bodies with diameters > 1 km has been estimated to be in the range 1,000-2,000, which translates to an approximately 1% chance of a catastrophic collision with the Earth in the next millennium. These numbers are, however, poorly constrained because of the limitations of previous searches using photographic plates. (One kilometre is below the size of a body whose impact on the Earth would produce global effects.) Here we report an analysis of our survey for near-Earth asteroids that uses improved detection technologies. We find that the total number of asteroids with diameters > 1 km is about half the earlier estimates. At the current rate of discovery of near-Earth asteroids, 90% will probably have been detected within the next 20 years.

  19. Comparison of the effects of two bongo net mesh sizes on the estimation of abundance and size of Engraulidae eggs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Menegassi del Favero

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Studies of ichthyoplankton retention by nets of different mesh sizes are important because they help in choosing a sampler when planning collection and the establishment of correction factors. These factors make it possible to compare studies performed with nets of different mesh sizes. In most studies of mesh retention of fish eggs, the taxonomic identification is done at the family level, resulting in the loss of detailed information. We separated Engraulidae eggs, obtained with 0.333 mm and 0.505 mm mesh bongo nets at 172 oceanographic stations in the southeastern Brazilian Bight, into four groups based on their morphometric characteristics. The difference in the abundance of eggs caught by the two nets was not significant for those groups with highest volume, types A and B, but in type C (Engraulis anchoita, the most eccentric, and in type D, of the smallest volume, the difference was significant. However, no significant difference was observed in the egg size sampled with each net for E. anchoita and type D, which exhibited higher abundance in the 0.333 mm mesh net and minor axis varying from 0.45-0.71 mm, smaller than the 0.505 mm mesh aperture and the mesh diagonal.

  20. Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

    2016-05-30

    Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

  1. A comparison of food habits and prey preference of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) at three sites in the Russian Far East.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerley, Linda L; Mukhacheva, Anna S; Matyukhina, Dina S; Salmanova, Elena; Salkina, Galina P; Miquelle, Dale G

    2015-07-01

    Prey availability is one of the principal drivers of tiger distribution and abundance. Therefore, formulating effective conservation strategies requires a clear understanding of tiger diet. We used scat analysis in combination with data on the abundance of several prey species to estimate Amur tiger diet and preference at 3 sites in the Russian Far East. We also examined the effect of pseudoreplication on estimates of tiger diet. We collected 770 scats across the 3 sites. Similar to previous studies, we found that tigers primarily preyed on medium to large ungulates, with wild boar, roe, sika and red deer collectively comprising 86.7% of total biomass consumed on average. According to Jacobs' index, tigers preferred wild boar, and avoided sika deer. Variation in preference indices derived from these scat analyses compared to indices derived from kill data appear to be due to adjustments in biomass intake when sex-age of a killed individual is known: a component missing from scat data. Pseudoreplication (multiple samples collected from a single kill site) also skewed results derived from scat analyses. Scat analysis still appears useful in providing insight into the diets of carnivores when the full spectrum of prey species needs to be identified, or when sample sizes from kill data are not sufficient. When sample sizes of kill data are large (as is now possible with GPS-collared animals), kill data adjusted by sex-age categories probably provides the most accurate estimates of prey biomass composition. Our results provide further confirmation of the centrality of medium ungulates, in particular wild boar, to Amur tiger diet, and suggest that the protection of this group of species is critical to Amur tiger conservation. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  2. Prey selection by the Barn Owl Tyto alba (Scopoli, 1769 in captivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Vanitha

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigated prey selection of the Barn Owl Tyto alba under captive conditions where birds were allowed to choose among individuals of varying size from four field rodent species: Bandicota bengalensis, Millardia meltada, Tatera indica and Mus booduga. Owls showed little species preference and a tendency to favour the medium weight class in all prey species except M. booduga. Preference for body parts consumed varied according to prey size, ranging from the head alone in the large weight class to the entire body in the small weight class. Biochemical measurements showed that protein, carbohydrate and lipid levels were higher respectively in the brain, liver and muscles of all three species and weight classes studied. The preference for medium weight prey despite a lower nutrient content compared to large weight prey is attributed to a greater ease of capture.

  3. Disentangling mite predator-prey relationships by multiplex PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Sayas, Consuelo; Pina, Tatiana; Gómez-Martínez, María A; Camañes, Gemma; Ibáñez-Gual, María V; Jaques, Josep A; Hurtado, Mónica A

    2015-11-01

    Gut content analysis using molecular techniques can help elucidate predator-prey relationships in situations in which other methodologies are not feasible, such as in the case of trophic interactions between minute species such as mites. We designed species-specific primers for a mite community occurring in Spanish citrus orchards comprising two herbivores, the Tetranychidae Tetranychus urticae and Panonychus citri, and six predatory mites belonging to the Phytoseiidae family; these predatory mites are considered to be these herbivores' main biological control agents. These primers were successfully multiplexed in a single PCR to test the range of predators feeding on each of the two prey species. We estimated prey DNA detectability success over time (DS50), which depended on the predator-prey combination and ranged from 0.2 to 18 h. These values were further used to weight prey detection in field samples to disentangle the predatory role played by the most abundant predators (i.e. Euseius stipulatus and Phytoseiulus persimilis). The corrected predation value for E. stipulatus was significantly higher than for P. persimilis. However, because this 1.5-fold difference was less than that observed regarding their sevenfold difference in abundance, we conclude that P. persimilis is the most effective predator in the system; it preyed on tetranychids almost five times more frequently than E. stipulatus did. The present results demonstrate that molecular tools are appropriate to unravel predator-prey interactions in tiny species such as mites, which include important agricultural pests and their predators. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Modelling the PCR amplification process by a size-dependent branching process and estimation of the efficiency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lalam, N.; Jacob, C.; Jagers, P.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a stochastic modelling of the PCR amplification process by a size-dependent branching process starting as a supercritical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson transient phase and then having a saturation near-critical size-dependent phase. This model allows us to estimate the probability of replication

  5. Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

    2017-12-01

    The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

  6. Prey and mound disassembly, manipulation and transport by fire ant collectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Bahnisikha; Monaenkova, Daria; Goodisman, Michael A.; Goldman, Daniel

    Fire ants inhabit subterranean nests covered by a hemispherical mound of soil permeated by narrow ( 1 body length diameter) tunnels. Fire ants can use their mound for long-term food storage [Gayahan &Tschinkel, J. Insect Sci.,2008]. Since mound tunnels are narrow, we expect that in addition to prey manipulation, mound reconfiguration could also be an important aspect of the food storage strategy. Ant colonies collected from wild were allowed to build nests in containers filled with clay soil in the laboratory. These colonies were offered diverse prey embedded with lead markers, including mealworms, crickets and shrimp. Ant-prey-soil interactions on the nest surface were recorded using overhead video and subsurface using x-ray imaging. Individual ants involved in prey storage exhibited three distinct behaviors: prey maneuvering, prey dissection and mound reconfiguration. Small prey (e.g. mealworms) were collectively carried intact into the mound through a tunnel, and then disassembled within the mound. Larger prey (e.g. shrimp) were dismantled into small pieces above the surface and carried to mound tunnels. The bodies of hard medium-sized prey (e.g. crickets) were buried after limb removal and then disassembled and moved into tunnels. Soil reconfiguration occurred in all cases.

  7. Stomach fullness shapes prey choice decisions in crab plovers (Dromas ardeola)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bom, Roeland A.; Fijen, Thijs P. M.; van Gils, Jan A.

    2018-01-01

    Foragers whose energy intake rate is constrained by search and handling time should, according to the contingency model (CM), select prey items whose profitability exceeds or equals the forager’s long-term average energy intake rate. This rule does not apply when prey items are found and ingested at a higher rate than the digestive system can process them. According to the digestive rate model (DRM), foragers in such situations should prefer prey with the highest digestive quality, instead of the highest profitability. As the digestive system fills up, the limiting constraint switches from ingestion rate to digestion rate, and prey choice is expected to change accordingly for foragers making decisions over a relative short time window. We use these models to understand prey choice in crab plovers (Dromas ardeola), preying on either small burrowing crabs that are swallowed whole (high profitability, but potentially inducing a digestive constraint) or on larger swimming crabs that are opened to consume only the flesh (low profitability, but easier to digest). To parameterize the CM and DRM, we measured energy content, ballast mass and handling times for different sized prey, and the birds’ digestive capacity in three captive individuals. Subsequently, these birds were used in ad libitum experiments to test if they obeyed the rules of the CM or DRM. We found that crab plovers with an empty stomach mainly chose the most profitable prey, matching the CM. When stomach fullness increased, the birds switched their preference from the most profitable prey to the highest-quality prey, matching the predictions of the DRM. This shows that prey choice is context dependent, affected by the stomach fullness of an animal. Our results suggest that prey choice experiments should be carefully interpreted, especially under captive conditions as foragers often ‘fill up’ in the course of feeding trials. PMID:29641542

  8. Body size and predatory performance in wolves: is bigger better?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Mech, L David; Eberly, Lynn E

    2009-05-01

    1. Large body size hinders locomotor performance in ways that may lead to trade-offs in predator foraging ability that limit the net predatory benefit of larger size. For example, size-related improvements in handling prey may come at the expense of pursuing prey and thus negate any enhancement in overall predatory performance due to increasing size. 2. This hypothesis was tested with longitudinal data from repeated observations of 94 individually known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Wolf size was estimated from an individually based sex-specific growth model derived from body mass measurements of 304 wolves. 3. Larger size granted individual wolves a net predatory advantage despite substantial variation in its effect on the performance of different predatory tasks; larger size improved performance of a strength-related task (grappling and subduing elk) but failed to improve performance of a locomotor-related task (selecting an elk from a group) for wolves > 39 kg. 4. Sexual dimorphism in wolf size also explained why males outperformed females in each of the three tasks considered (attacking, selecting, and killing). 5. These findings support the generalization that bigger predators are overall better hunters, but they also indicate that increasing size ultimately limits elements of predatory behaviour that require superior locomotor performance. We argue that this could potentially narrow the dietary niche of larger carnivores as well as limit the evolution of larger size if prey are substantially more difficult to pursue than to handle.

  9. Body size and predatory performance in wolves: Is bigger better?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Mech, L.D.; Eberly, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Large body size hinders locomotor performance in ways that may lead to trade-offs in predator foraging ability that limit the net predatory benefit of larger size. For example, size-related improvements in handling prey may come at the expense of pursuing prey and thus negate any enhancement in overall predatory performance due to increasing size. 2. This hypothesis was tested with longitudinal data from repeated observations of 94 individually known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Wolf size was estimated from an individually based sex-specific growth model derived from body mass measurements of 304 wolves. 3. Larger size granted individual wolves a net predatory advantage despite substantial variation in its effect on the performance of different predatory tasks; larger size improved performance of a strength-related task (grappling and subduing elk) but failed to improve performance of a locomotor-related task (selecting an elk from a group) for wolves > 39 kg. 4. Sexual dimorphism in wolf size also explained why males outperformed females in each of the three tasks considered (attacking, selecting, and killing). 5. These findings support the generalization that bigger predators are overall better hunters, but they also indicate that increasing size ultimately limits elements of predatory behaviour that require superior locomotor performance. We argue that this could potentially narrow the dietary niche of larger carnivores as well as limit the evolution of larger size if prey are substantially more difficult to pursue than to handle. ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

  10. Robust Variance Estimation with Dependent Effect Sizes: Practical Considerations Including a Software Tutorial in Stata and SPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-Smith, Emily E.; Tipton, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and SPSS (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding…

  11. Prey capture by harbor porpoises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, Lee; Verfuss, Ursula

    2009-01-01

    their ultrasonic clicks as biosonar for orientation and detection of prey (mostly smaller pelagic and bottom dwelling fish), and for communication. For studying wild animals, hydrophone arrays and acoustic (time/depth) tags have been used. For studying captive animals, arrays and video techniques as well...

  12. Prey preferences of aquatic insects: potential implications for the regulation of wetland mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, N; Aditya, G; Saha, G K

    2014-03-01

    Wetlands are potential sites for mosquito breeding and are thus important in the context of public health. The use of chemical and microbial controls is constrained in wetlands in view of their potential impact on the diverse biota. Biological control using generalist aquatic insects can be effective, provided a preference for mosquito larvae is exhibited. The mosquito prey preferences of water bugs and larvae of odonate species were evaluated using chironomid larvae, fish fingerlings and tadpoles as alternative prey. Manly's selectivity (αi ) values with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to judge prey preference patterns. Multivariate analysis of variance (manova) and standardized canonical coefficients were used to test the effects of density on prey selectivity. The αi values indicated a significant preference (P insect predators tested for mosquito larvae over the alternative prey as a density-dependent function. On a comparative scale, chironomid larvae had the highest impact as alternative prey. In a multiple-prey experiment, predators showed a similar pattern of preference for mosquito larvae over alternative prey, reflecting a significant (P insect predators can effectively reduce mosquito density in the presence of multiple alternative prey. © 2013 The Royal Entomological Society.

  13. Prey risk allocation in a grazing ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gude, Justin A; Garrott, Robert A; Borkowski, John J; King, Fred

    2006-02-01

    Understanding the behaviorally mediated indirect effects of predators in ecosystems requires knowledge of predator-prey behavioral interactions. In predator-ungulate-plant systems, empirical research quantifying how predators affect ungulate group sizes and distribution, in the context of other influential variables, is particularly needed. The risk allocation hypothesis proposes that prey behavioral responses to predation risk depend on background frequencies of exposure to risk, and it can be used to make predictions about predator-ungulate-plant interactions. We determined non-predation variables that affect elk (Cervus elaphus) group sizes and distribution on a winter range in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) using logistic and log-linear regression on surveys of 513 1-km2 areas conducted over two years. Employing model selection techniques, we evaluated risk allocation and other a priori hypotheses of elk group size and distributional responses to wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk while accounting for influential non-wolf-predation variables. We found little evidence that wolves affect elk group sizes, which were strongly influenced by habitat type and hunting by humans. Following predictions from the risk allocation hypothesis, wolves likely created a more dynamic elk distribution in areas that they frequently hunted, as elk tended to move following wolf encounters in those areas. This response should dilute elk foraging pressure on plant communities in areas where they are frequently hunted by wolves. We predict that this should decrease the spatial heterogeneity of elk impacts on grasslands in areas that wolves frequently hunt. We also predict that this should decrease browsing pressure on heavily browsed woody plant stands in certain areas, which is supported by recent research in the GYE.

  14. Unbiased tensor-based morphometry: improved robustness and sample size estimates for Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xue; Hibar, Derrek P; Ching, Christopher R K; Boyle, Christina P; Rajagopalan, Priya; Gutman, Boris A; Leow, Alex D; Toga, Arthur W; Jack, Clifford R; Harvey, Danielle; Weiner, Michael W; Thompson, Paul M

    2013-02-01

    Various neuroimaging measures are being evaluated for tracking Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in therapeutic trials, including measures of structural brain change based on repeated scanning of patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods to compute brain change must be robust to scan quality. Biases may arise if any scans are thrown out, as this can lead to the true changes being overestimated or underestimated. Here we analyzed the full MRI dataset from the first phase of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI-1) from the first phase of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI-1) and assessed several sources of bias that can arise when tracking brain changes with structural brain imaging methods, as part of a pipeline for tensor-based morphometry (TBM). In all healthy subjects who completed MRI scanning at screening, 6, 12, and 24months, brain atrophy was essentially linear with no detectable bias in longitudinal measures. In power analyses for clinical trials based on these change measures, only 39AD patients and 95 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects were needed for a 24-month trial to detect a 25% reduction in the average rate of change using a two-sided test (α=0.05, power=80%). Further sample size reductions were achieved by stratifying the data into Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ε4 carriers versus non-carriers. We show how selective data exclusion affects sample size estimates, motivating an objective comparison of different analysis techniques based on statistical power and robustness. TBM is an unbiased, robust, high-throughput imaging surrogate marker for large, multi-site neuroimaging studies and clinical trials of AD and MCI. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A Machine Learning Approach to Estimate Riverbank Geotechnical Parameters from Sediment Particle Size Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwashita, Fabio; Brooks, Andrew; Spencer, John; Borombovits, Daniel; Curwen, Graeme; Olley, Jon

    2015-04-01

    Assessing bank stability using geotechnical models traditionally involves the laborious collection of data on the bank and floodplain stratigraphy, as well as in-situ geotechnical data for each sedimentary unit within a river bank. The application of geotechnical bank stability models are limited to those sites where extensive field data has been collected, where their ability to provide predictions of bank erosion at the reach scale are limited without a very extensive and expensive field data collection program. Some challenges in the construction and application of riverbank erosion and hydraulic numerical models are their one-dimensionality, steady-state requirements, lack of calibration data, and nonuniqueness. Also, numerical models commonly can be too rigid with respect to detecting unexpected features like the onset of trends, non-linear relations, or patterns restricted to sub-samples of a data set. These shortcomings create the need for an alternate modelling approach capable of using available data. The application of the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) approach is well-suited to the analysis of noisy, sparse, nonlinear, multidimensional, and scale-dependent data. It is a type of unsupervised artificial neural network with hybrid competitive-cooperative learning. In this work we present a method that uses a database of geotechnical data collected at over 100 sites throughout Queensland State, Australia, to develop a modelling approach that enables geotechnical parameters (soil effective cohesion, friction angle, soil erodibility and critical stress) to be derived from sediment particle size data (PSD). The model framework and predicted values were evaluated using two methods, splitting the dataset into training and validation set, and through a Bootstrap approach. The basis of Bootstrap cross-validation is a leave-one-out strategy. This requires leaving one data value out of the training set while creating a new SOM to estimate that missing value based on the

  16. Two-prey one-predator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elettreby, M.F.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multi-team prey-predator model, in which the prey teams help each other. We study its local stability. In the absence of predator, there is no help between the prey teams. So, we study the global stability and persistence of the model without help.

  17. Prey detection in a cruising copepod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    . Yet, direct interception has been proposed to explain how rapidly cruising, blind copepods feed on non-motile phytoplankton prey. Here, we demonstrate a novel mechanism for prey detection in a cruising copepod, and describe how motile and non-motile prey are discovered by hydromechanical and tactile...

  18. Size estimation, HIV prevalence and risk behaviours of female sex workers in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altaf, A.; Aga, A.; McKinizie, M.H.; Abbas, Q.; Jafri, S.B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To provide size estimation and to determine risky behaviours and HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Pakistan, which has progressed from a low to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study (geographic mapping and integrated behavioural and biological survey-IBBS) was conducted between August 2005 to January 2006 in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. A detailed questionnaire and dry blood spot (DBS) specimen for HIV testing were collected by trained interviewers after informed consent. The study was ethically approved by review boards in Canada and Pakistan. Results: About 14,900 female sex workers were estimated to be functional in Sindh. A total of 1158 of them were interviewed for the study. Average age of sex workers was 27.4+- 6.7 years, and the majority 787 (67.9%) were married, and uneducated 764 (65.9%). Sindhi (26.4%) was the predominant ethnicity. Mean number of paid clients was 2.1+-1.2. Three workers were confirmed HIV positive (0.75%, 95 percent CI 0.2-2.2%) from Karachi. Condom use at last sexual act was highest (68%) among brothel-based workers from Karachi, and the lowest in Sukkur where only 1.3% street-based workers reported using a condom at last sexual act. Overall use of illicit drugs through injections was negligible. Conclusion: HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Sindh, Pakistan is low but risky behaviours are present. Well organised service delivery programmes can help promoting safer practices. (author)

  19. Estimating the size of illicit tobacco consumption in Brazil: findings from the global adult tobacco survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Roberto Magno; Szklo, André Salem; Souza, Mirian Carvalho de; de Almeida, Liz Maria

    2017-01-01

    Brazil experienced a large decline in smoking prevalence between 2008 and 2013. Tax rate increases since 2007 and a new tobacco tax structure in 2012 may have played an important role in this decline. However, continuous tax rate increases pushed up cigarette prices over personal income growth and, therefore, some consumers, especially lower income individuals, may have migrated to cheaper illicit cigarettes. To use tobacco surveillance data to estimate the size of illicit tobacco consumption before and after excise tax increases. We defined a threshold price and compared it with purchasing prices obtained from two representative surveys conducted in 2008 and 2013 to estimate the proportion of illicit cigarette use among daily smokers. Generalised linear model was specified to understand whether the absolute difference in proportions over time differed by sociodemographic groups and consumption levels. Our findings were validated using an alternative method. Total proportion of illicit daily consumption increased from 16.6% to 31.1% between 2008 and 2013. We observed a pattern of unadjusted absolute decreases in cigarette smoking prevalence and increases in the proportion of illicit consumption, irrespective of gender, age, educational level, area of residence and amount of cigarettes consumed. The strategy of raising taxes has increased government revenues, reduced smoking prevalence and resulted in an increased illicit trade. Surveillance data can be used to provide information on illicit tobacco trade to help in the implementation of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) article 15 and the FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  20. Challenges to a molecular approach to prey identification in the Burmese python, Python molurus bivittatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Bryan; Reed, Robert N.

    2015-01-01

    Molecular approaches to prey identification are increasingly useful in elucidating predator–prey relationships, and we aimed to investigate the feasibility of these methods to document the species identities of prey consumed by invasive Burmese pythons in Florida. We were particularly interested in the diet of young snakes, because visual identification of prey from this size class has proven difficult. We successfully extracted DNA from the gastrointestinal contents of 43 young pythons, as well as from several control samples, and attempted amplification of DNA mini-barcodes, a 130-bp region of COX1. Using a PNA clamp to exclude python DNA, we found that prey DNA was not present in sufficient quality for amplification of this locus in 86% of our samples. All samples from the GI tracts of young pythons contained only hair, and the six samples we were able to identify to species were hispid cotton rats. This suggests that young Burmese pythons prey predominantly on small mammals and that prey diversity among snakes of this size class is low. We discuss prolonged gastrointestinal transit times and extreme gastric breakdown as possible causes of DNA degradation that limit the success of a molecular approach to prey identification in Burmese pythons

  1. Estimating Total Claim Size in the Auto Insurance Industry: a Comparison between Tweedie and Zero-Adjusted Inverse Gaussian Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to estimate insurance claims from an auto dataset using the Tweedie and zero-adjusted inverse Gaussian (ZAIG methods. We identify factors that influence claim size and probability, and compare the results of these methods which both forecast outcomes accurately. Vehicle characteristics like territory, age, origin and type distinctly influence claim size and probability. This distinct impact is not always present in the Tweedie estimated model. Auto insurers should consider estimating total claim size using both the Tweedie and ZAIG methods. This allows for an estimation of confidence interval based on empirical quantiles using bootstrap simulation. Furthermore, the fitted models may be useful in developing a strategy to obtain premium pricing.

  2. Characterization of spherical core–shell particles by static light scattering. Estimation of the core- and particle-size distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clementi, Luis A.; Vega, Jorge R.; Gugliotta, Luis M.; Quirantes, Arturo

    2012-01-01

    A numerical method is proposed for the characterization of core–shell spherical particles from static light scattering (SLS) measurements. The method is able to estimate the core size distribution (CSD) and the particle size distribution (PSD), through the following two-step procedure: (i) the estimation of the bivariate core–particle size distribution (C–PSD), by solving a linear ill-conditioned inverse problem through a generalized Tikhonov regularization strategy, and (ii) the calculation of the CSD and the PSD from the estimated C–PSD. First, the method was evaluated on the basis of several simulated examples, with polystyrene–poly(methyl methacrylate) core–shell particles of different CSDs and PSDs. Then, two samples of hematite–Yttrium basic carbonate core–shell particles were successfully characterized. In all analyzed examples, acceptable estimates of the PSD and the average diameter of the CSD were obtained. Based on the single-scattering Mie theory, the proposed method is an effective tool for characterizing core–shell colloidal particles larger than their Rayleigh limits without requiring any a-priori assumption on the shapes of the size distributions. Under such conditions, the PSDs can always be adequately estimated, while acceptable CSD estimates are obtained when the core/shell particles exhibit either a high optical contrast, or a moderate optical contrast but with a high ‘average core diameter’/‘average particle diameter’ ratio. -- Highlights: ► Particles with core–shell morphology are characterized by static light scattering. ► Core size distribution and particle size distribution are successfully estimated. ► Simulated and experimental examples are used to validate the numerical method. ► The positive effect of a large core/shell optical contrast is investigated. ► No a-priori assumption on the shapes of the size distributions is required.

  3. Fine-scale spatio-temporal variation in tiger Panthera tigris diet: Effect of study duration and extent on estimates of tiger diet in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapfer, Paul M.; Streby, Henry M.; Gurung, B.; Simcharoen, A.; McDougal, C.C.; Smith, J.L.D.

    2011-01-01

    Attempts to conserve declining tiger Panthera tigris populations and distributions have experienced limited success. The poaching of tiger prey is a key threat to tiger persistence; a clear understanding of tiger diet is a prerequisite to conserve dwindling populations. We used unpublished data on tiger diet in combination with two previously published studies to examine fine-scale spatio-temporal changes in tiger diet relative to prey abundance in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and aggregated data from the three studies to examine the effect that study duration and the size of the study area have on estimates of tiger diet. Our results correspond with those of previous studies: in all three studies, tiger diet was dominated by members of Cervidae; small to medium-sized prey was important in one study. Tiger diet was unrelated to prey abundance, and the aggregation of studies indicates that increasing study duration and study area size both result in increased dietary diversity in terms of prey categories consumed, and increasing study duration changed which prey species contributed most to tiger diet. Based on our results, we suggest that managers focus their efforts on minimizing the poaching of all tiger prey, and that future studies of tiger diet be of long duration and large spatial extent to improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in estimates of tiger diet. ?? 2011 Wildlife Biology, NKV.

  4. Optically-derived estimates of phytoplankton size class and taxonomic group biomass in the Eastern Subarctic Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chen; Rosengard, Sarah Z.; Burt, William; Peña, M. Angelica; Nemcek, Nina; Zeng, Tao; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Tortell, Philippe D.

    2018-06-01

    We evaluate several algorithms for the estimation of phytoplankton size class (PSC) and functional type (PFT) biomass from ship-based optical measurements in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean. Using underway measurements of particulate absorption and backscatter in surface waters, we derived estimates of PSC/PFT based on chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a), particulate absorption spectra and the wavelength dependence of particulate backscatter. Optically-derived [Chl-a] and phytoplankton absorption measurements were validated against discrete calibration samples, while the derived PSC/PFT estimates were validated using size-fractionated Chl-a measurements and HPLC analysis of diagnostic photosynthetic pigments (DPA). Our results showflo that PSC/PFT algorithms based on [Chl-a] and particulate absorption spectra performed significantly better than the backscatter slope approach. These two more successful algorithms yielded estimates of phytoplankton size classes that agreed well with HPLC-derived DPA estimates (RMSE = 12.9%, and 16.6%, respectively) across a range of hydrographic and productivity regimes. Moreover, the [Chl-a] algorithm produced PSC estimates that agreed well with size-fractionated [Chl-a] measurements, and estimates of the biomass of specific phytoplankton groups that were consistent with values derived from HPLC. Based on these results, we suggest that simple [Chl-a] measurements should be more fully exploited to improve the classification of phytoplankton assemblages in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

  5. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

  6. Relative estimates of TCA cycle pool size from 14CO2 production profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelleher, J.K.; Cesta, M.L.; Holleran, A.L.

    1986-01-01

    In metabolic and isotopic steady state, the rate of 14 CO 2 production by TCA cycle intermediates labeled at different positions is linear. However, before the system reaches isotopic steady state, the rate of 14 CO 2 production is non-linear. The x-intercept extrapolated from the linear phase indicates the turnover rate of all metabolic pools the tracer must pass through. By exposing identical systems to 14 C succinate labeled in different positions, the contribution of TCA cycle pools to the non-linear phase may be considered. Specifically, the extrapolated x-intercept for [2,3 14 C] succinate will be greater than the x-intercept for [1,4 14 C] succinate if the TCA cycle pools are a contributing factor to the non-linear phase. The authors have used this method to analyze pyruvate oxidation in AS 30D hepatoma cells. They found that the extrapolated x-intercepts for the two tracers were identical. This indicates that the non-linear phase resulted from equilibration of the tracer with pools prior to entering the TCA cycle, i.e. lactate. Using this technique, it may be possible to estimate the variations in TCA cycle pool sizes in vivo

  7. Estimated ventricle size using Evans index: reference values from a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaraj, D; Rabiei, K; Marlow, T; Jensen, C; Skoog, I; Wikkelsø, C

    2017-03-01

    Evans index is an estimate of ventricular size used in the diagnosis of idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). Values >0.3 are considered pathological and are required by guidelines for the diagnosis of iNPH. However, there are no previous epidemiological studies on Evans index, and normal values in adults are thus not precisely known. We examined a representative sample to obtain reference values and descriptive data on Evans index. A population-based sample (n = 1235) of men and women aged ≥70 years was examined. The sample comprised people living in private households and residential care, systematically selected from the Swedish population register. Neuropsychiatric examinations, including head computed tomography, were performed between 1986 and 2000. Evans index ranged from 0.11 to 0.46. The mean value in the total sample was 0.28 (SD, 0.04) and 20.6% (n = 255) had values >0.3. Among men aged ≥80 years, the mean value of Evans index was 0.3 (SD, 0.03). Individuals with dementia had a mean value of Evans index of 0.31 (SD, 0.05) and those with radiological signs of iNPH had a mean value of 0.36 (SD, 0.04). A substantial number of subjects had ventricular enlargement according to current criteria. Clinicians and researchers need to be aware of the range of values among older individuals. © 2017 EAN.

  8. The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, Sara; Kaldager Hart, Rannveig

    2017-02-01

    Although fertility is positively correlated across generations, the causal effect of children's experience with larger sibships on their own fertility in adulthood is poorly understood. With the sex composition of the two firstborn children as an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of sibship size on adult fertility using high-quality data from Norwegian administrative registers. Our study sample is all firstborns or second-borns during the 1960s in Norwegian families with at least two children (approximately 110,000 men and 104,000 women). An additional sibling has a positive effect on male fertility, mainly causing them to have three children themselves, but has a negative effect on female fertility at the same margin. Investigation into mediators reveals that mothers of girls shift relatively less time from market to family work when an additional child is born. We speculate that this scarcity in parents' time makes girls aware of the strains of life in large families, leading them to limit their own number of children in adulthood.

  9. Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Kane

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976, the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a used aa(min=15.5 (12-month running mean, which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max=124±26 (12-month running mean. However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max=117±26 (12-month running mean. However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max=58.0±25.0.

  10. Reducing bias in rainfall estimates from microwave links by considering variable drop size distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Martin; Jörg, Rieckermann; Vojtěch, Bareš

    2015-04-01

    Commercial microwave links (MWL) are point-to-point radio systems which are used in backhaul networks of cellular operators. For several years, they have been suggested as rainfall sensors complementary to rain gauges and weather radars, because, first, they operate at frequencies where rain drops represent significant source of attenuation and, second, cellular networks almost completely cover urban and rural areas. Usually, path-average rain rates along a MWL are retrieved from the rain-induced attenuation of received MWL signals with a simple model based on a power law relationship. The model is often parameterized based on the characteristics of a particular MWL, such as frequency, polarization and the drop size distribution (DSD) along the MWL. As information on the DSD is usually not available in operational conditions, the model parameters are usually considered constant. Unfortunately, this introduces bias into rainfall estimates from MWL. In this investigation, we propose a generic method to eliminate this bias in MWL rainfall estimates. Specifically, we search for attenuation statistics which makes it possible to classify rain events into distinct groups for which same power-law parameters can be used. The theoretical attenuation used in the analysis is calculated from DSD data using T-Matrix method. We test the validity of our approach on observations from a dedicated field experiment in Dübendorf (CH) with a 1.85-km long commercial dual-polarized microwave link transmitting at a frequency of 38 GHz, an autonomous network of 5 optical distrometers and 3 rain gauges distributed along the path of the MWL. The data is recorded at a high temporal resolution of up to 30s. It is further tested on data from an experimental catchment in Prague (CZ), where 14 MWLs, operating at 26, 32 and 38 GHz frequencies, and reference rainfall from three RGs is recorded every minute. Our results suggest that, for our purpose, rain events can be nicely characterized based on

  11. How Big Is It Really? Assessing the Efficacy of Indirect Estimates of Body Size in Asian Elephants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon N Chapman

    Full Text Available Information on an organism's body size is pivotal in understanding its life history and fitness, as well as helping inform conservation measures. However, for many species, particularly large-bodied wild animals, taking accurate body size measurements can be a challenge. Various means to estimate body size have been employed, from more direct methods such as using photogrammetry to obtain height or length measurements, to indirect prediction of weight using other body morphometrics or even the size of dung boli. It is often unclear how accurate these measures are because they cannot be compared to objective measures. Here, we investigate how well existing estimation equations predict the actual body weight of Asian elephants Elephas maximus, using body measurements (height, chest girth, length, foot circumference and neck circumference taken directly from a large population of semi-captive animals in Myanmar (n = 404. We then define new and better fitting formulas to predict body weight in Myanmar elephants from these readily available measures. We also investigate whether the important parameters height and chest girth can be estimated from photographs (n = 151. Our results show considerable variation in the ability of existing estimation equations to predict weight, and that the equations proposed in this paper predict weight better in almost all circumstances. We also find that measurements from standardised photographs reflect body height and chest girth after applying minor adjustments. Our results have implications for size estimation of large wild animals in the field, as well as for management in captive settings.

  12. Accuracy of burn size estimation in patients transferred to adult Burn Units in Sydney, Australia: an audit of 698 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harish, Varun; Raymond, Andrew P; Issler, Andrea C; Lajevardi, Sepehr S; Chang, Ling-Yun; Maitz, Peter K M; Kennedy, Peter

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare burn size estimation between referring centres and Burn Units in adult patients transferred to Burn Units in Sydney, Australia. A review of all adults transferred to Burn Units in Sydney, Australia between January 2009 and August 2013 was performed. The TBSA estimated by the referring institution was compared with the TBSA measured at the Burns Unit. There were 698 adults transferred to a Burns Unit. Equivalent TBSA estimation between the referring hospital and Burns Unit occurred in 30% of patients. Overestimation occurred at a ratio exceeding 3:1 with respect to underestimation, with the difference between the referring institutions and Burns Unit estimation being statistically significant (Pburn-injured patients as well as in patients transferred more than 48h after the burn (Pburn (Pburns (≥20% TBSA) were found to have more satisfactory burn size estimations compared with less severe injuries (burn size assessment by referring centres. The systemic tendency for overestimation occurs throughout the entire TBSA spectrum, and persists with increasing time after the burn. Underestimation occurs less frequently but rises with increasing time after the burn and with increasing TBSA. Severe burns (≥20% TBSA) are more accurately estimated by the referring hospital. The inaccuracies in burn size assessment have the potential to result in suboptimal treatment and inappropriate referral to specialised Burn Units. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimating the Initial Crack Size in a Particulate Composite Material: An Analytical and Experimental Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Liu, C

    2001-01-01

    The objectives in this report are to: determine the inherent critical initial crack size in a particulate composite material, determine the statistical distribution function of the inherent critical crack size, normal distribution, two...

  14. Testing the quantity–quality model of fertility: Estimation using unrestricted family size models

    OpenAIRE

    Mogstad, Magne; Wiswall, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    We examine the relationship between child quantity and quality. Motivated by the theoretical ambiguity regarding the sign of the marginal effects of additional siblings on children's outcomes, our empirical model allows for an unrestricted relationship between family size and child outcomes. We find that the conclusion in Black, Devereux, and Salvanes (2005) of no family size effect does not hold after relaxing their linear specification in family size. We find nonzero effects of family size ...

  15. When attempts at robbing prey turn fatal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejean, Alain; Corbara, Bruno; Azémar, Frédéric; Carpenter, James M.

    2012-07-01

    Because group-hunting arboreal ants spread-eagle insect prey for a long time before retrieving them, these prey can be coveted by predatory flying insects. Yet, attempting to rob these prey is risky if the ant species is also an effective predator. Here, we show that trying to rob prey from Azteca andreae workers is a fatal error as 268 out of 276 potential cleptobionts (97.1 %) were captured in turn. The ant workers hunt in a group and use the "Velcro®" principle to cling firmly to the leaves of their host tree, permitting them to capture very large prey. Exceptions were one social wasp, plus some Trigona spp. workers and flies that landed directly on the prey and were able to take off immediately when attacked. We conclude that in this situation, previously captured prey attract potential cleptobionts that are captured in turn in most of the cases.

  16. Deep sea animal density and size estimated using a Dual-frequency IDentification SONar (DIDSON) offshore the island of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorli, Giacomo; Drazen, Jeffrey C.; Neuheimer, Anna B.; Copeland, Adrienne; Au, Whitlow W. L.

    2018-01-01

    Pelagic animals that form deep sea scattering layers (DSLs) represent an important link in the food web between zooplankton and top predators. While estimating the composition, density and location of the DSL is important to understand mesopelagic ecosystem dynamics and to predict top predators' distribution, DSL composition and density are often estimated from trawls which may be biased in terms of extrusion, avoidance, and gear-associated biases. Instead, location and biomass of DSLs can be estimated from active acoustic techniques, though estimates are often in aggregate without regard to size or taxon specific information. For the first time in the open ocean, we used a DIDSON sonar to characterize the fauna in DSLs. Estimates of the numerical density and length of animals at different depths and locations along the Kona coast of the Island of Hawaii were determined. Data were collected below and inside the DSLs with the sonar mounted on a profiler. A total of 7068 animals were counted and sized. We estimated numerical densities ranging from 1 to 7 animals/m3 and individuals as long as 3 m were detected. These numerical densities were orders of magnitude higher than those estimated from trawls and average sizes of animals were much larger as well. A mixed model was used to characterize numerical density and length of animals as a function of deep sea layer sampled, location, time of day, and day of the year. Numerical density and length of animals varied by month, with numerical density also a function of depth. The DIDSON proved to be a good tool for open-ocean/deep-sea estimation of the numerical density and size of marine animals, especially larger ones. Further work is needed to understand how this methodology relates to estimates of volume backscatters obtained with standard echosounding techniques, density measures obtained with other sampling methodologies, and to precisely evaluate sampling biases.

  17. Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

    2018-01-30

    Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

  18. Relative efficiency of unequal versus equal cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials using generalized estimating equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingxia; Colditz, Graham A

    2018-05-01

    There is growing interest in conducting cluster randomized trials (CRTs). For simplicity in sample size calculation, the cluster sizes are assumed to be identical across all clusters. However, equal cluster sizes are not guaranteed in practice. Therefore, the relative efficiency (RE) of unequal versus equal cluster sizes has been investigated when testing the treatment effect. One of the most important approaches to analyze a set of correlated data is the generalized estimating equation (GEE) proposed by Liang and Zeger, in which the "working correlation structure" is introduced and the association pattern depends on a vector of association parameters denoted by ρ. In this paper, we utilize GEE models to test the treatment effect in a two-group comparison for continuous, binary, or count data in CRTs. The variances of the estimator of the treatment effect are derived for the different types of outcome. RE is defined as the ratio of variance of the estimator of the treatment effect for equal to unequal cluster sizes. We discuss a commonly used structure in CRTs-exchangeable, and derive the simpler formula of RE with continuous, binary, and count outcomes. Finally, REs are investigated for several scenarios of cluster size distributions through simulation studies. We propose an adjusted sample size due to efficiency loss. Additionally, we also propose an optimal sample size estimation based on the GEE models under a fixed budget for known and unknown association parameter (ρ) in the working correlation structure within the cluster. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Sperm whale predator-prey interactions involve chasing and buzzing, but no acoustic stunning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fais, Andrea; Johnson, M.; Wilson, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The sperm whale carries a hypertrophied nose that generates powerful clicks for long-range echolocation. However, it remains a conundrum how this bizarrely shaped apex predator catches its prey. Several hypotheses have been advanced to propose both active and passive means to acquire prey......, including acoustic debilitation of prey with very powerful clicks. Here we test these hypotheses by using sound and movement recording tags in a fine-scale study of buzz sequences to relate the acoustic behaviour of sperm whales with changes in acceleration in their head region during prey capture attempts....... We show that in the terminal buzz phase, sperm whales reduce inter-click intervals and estimated source levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. As a result, received levels at the prey are more than an order of magnitude below levels required for debilitation, precluding acoustic stunning to facilitate...

  20. Sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease for clustered binary data with a specific risk profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostoulas, P.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Browne, W. J.

    2013-01-01

    and power when applied to these groups. We propose the use of the variance partition coefficient (VPC), which measures the clustering of infection/disease for individuals with a common risk profile. Sample size estimates are obtained separately for those groups that exhibit markedly different heterogeneity......, thus, optimizing resource allocation. A VPC-based predictive simulation method for sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease is presented. To illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach we give two examples with the analysis of data from a risk factor study on Mycobacterium avium...

  1. Penguin head movement detected using small accelerometers: a proxy of prey encounter rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokubun, Nobuo; Kim, Jeong-Hoon; Shin, Hyoung-Chul; Naito, Yasuhiko; Takahashi, Akinori

    2011-11-15

    Determining temporal and spatial variation in feeding rates is essential for understanding the relationship between habitat features and the foraging behavior of top predators. In this study we examined the utility of head movement as a proxy of prey encounter rates in medium-sized Antarctic penguins, under the presumption that the birds should move their heads actively when they encounter and peck prey. A field study of free-ranging chinstrap and gentoo penguins was conducted at King George Island, Antarctica. Head movement was recorded using small accelerometers attached to the head, with simultaneous monitoring for prey encounter or body angle. The main prey was Antarctic krill (>99% in wet mass) for both species. Penguin head movement coincided with a slow change in body angle during dives. Active head movements were extracted using a high-pass filter (5 Hz acceleration signals) and the remaining acceleration peaks (higher than a threshold acceleration of 1.0 g) were counted. The timing of head movements coincided well with images of prey taken from the back-mounted cameras: head movement was recorded within ±2.5 s of a prey image on 89.1±16.1% (N=7 trips) of images. The number of head movements varied largely among dive bouts, suggesting large temporal variations in prey encounter rates. Our results show that head movement is an effective proxy of prey encounter, and we suggest that the method will be widely applicable for a variety of predators.

  2. Growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and size in CdS nanoparticles: X-ray peak profile analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Rekha Garg; Rajaram, Poolla; Bajpai, P. K.

    2018-05-01

    This work is based on the growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and crystallite size in CdS nanoparticles by X-ray peak profile analysis. The CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by a non-aqueous solvothermal method and were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Raman and UV-visible spectroscopy. XRD confirms that the CdS nanoparticles have the hexagonal structure. The Williamson-Hall (W-H) method was used to study the X-ray peak profile analysis. The strain-size plot (SSP) was used to study the individual contributions of crystallite size and lattice strain from the X-rays peaks. The physical parameters such as strain, stress and energy density values were calculated using various models namely, isotropic strain model, anisotropic strain model and uniform deformation energy density model. The particle size was estimated from the TEM images to be in the range of 20-40 nm. The Raman spectrum shows the characteristic optical 1LO and 2LO vibrational modes of CdS. UV-visible absorption studies show that the band gap of the CdS nanoparticles is 2.48 eV. The results show that the crystallite size estimated from Scherrer's formula, W-H plots, SSP and the particle size calculated by TEM images are approximately similar.

  3. Predator-Prey Dynamics in the Mesopelagic: Odontocete Foraging Ecology and Anti-predator Behavior of Prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit-Bird, K. J.

    2016-02-01

    We explored the behavior of Risso's dolphins foraging in scattering layers off California using an integrated approach comprising echosounders deployed in a deep-diving autonomous underwater vehicle, ship based acoustics, visual observations, direct prey sampling, and animal-borne tags on deep-diving predators. We identified three distinct prey layers: a persistent layer around 425 m, a vertically migrating layer around 300 m, and a layer intermittently present near 50 m, all of which were used by individual tagged animals. Active acoustic measurements demonstrated that Risso's dolphins dove to discrete prey layers throughout the day and night with only slightly higher detection rates at night. Dolphins were detected in all three layers during the day with over half of detections in the middle layer, 20% of detections in the deepest layer, and 10% falling outside the main layers. Dolphins were found less frequently in areas where the shallow, intermittent layer was absent, suggesting that this layer, while containing the smallest prey and the lowest densities of squid, was an important component of their foraging strategy. The deepest layer was targeted equally both during the day and at night. Using acoustic data collected from the AUV, we found layers were made up of distinct, small patches of animals of similar size and taxonomy adjacent to contrasting patches. Squid made up over 70% of the patches in which dolphins were found and more than 95% of those in deep water. Squid targeted by dolphins in deep water were also relatively large, indicating significant benefit from these relatively rare, physically demanding dives. Within these patches, prey formed tighter aggregations when Risso's dolphins were present. Careful integration of a suite of traditional and novel tools is providing insight into the ecology and dynamics of predator and prey in the mesopelagic.

  4. The GAAS Metagenomic Tool and Its Estimations of Viral and Microbial Average Genome Size in Four Major Biomes

    OpenAIRE

    Angly, Florent E.; Willner, Dana; Prieto-Dav?, Alejandra; Edwards, Robert A.; Schmieder, Robert; Vega-Thurber, Rebecca; Antonopoulos, Dionysios A.; Barott, Katie; Cottrell, Matthew T.; Desnues, Christelle; Dinsdale, Elizabeth A.; Furlan, Mike; Haynes, Matthew; Henn, Matthew R.; Hu, Yongfei

    2009-01-01

    Metagenomic studies characterize both the composition and diversity of uncultured viral and microbial communities. BLAST-based comparisons have typically been used for such analyses; however, sampling biases, high percentages of unknown sequences, and the use of arbitrary thresholds to find significant similarities can decrease the accuracy and validity of estimates. Here, we present Genome relative Abundance and Average Size (GAAS), a complete software package that provides improved estimate...

  5. Monitoring the size and protagonists of the drug market: combining supply and demand data sources and estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Carla

    2013-06-01

    The size of the illicit drug market is an important indicator to assess the impact on society of an important part of the illegal economy and to evaluate drug policy and law enforcement interventions. The extent of illicit drug use and of the drug market can essentially only be estimated by indirect methods based on indirect measures and on data from various sources, as administrative data sets and surveys. The combined use of several methodologies and data sets allows to reduce biases and inaccuracies of estimates obtained on the basis of each of them separately. This approach has been applied to Italian data. The estimation methods applied are capture-recapture methods with latent heterogeneity and multiplier methods. Several data sets have been used, both administrative and survey data sets. First, the retail dealer prevalence has been estimated on the basis of administrative data, then the user prevalence by multiplier methods. Using information about behaviour of dealers and consumers from survey data, the average amount of a substance used or sold and the average unit cost have been estimated and allow estimating the size of the drug market. The estimates have been obtained using a supply-side approach and a demand-side approach and have been compared. These results are in turn used for estimating the interception rate for the different substances in term of the value of the substance seized with respect to the total value of the substance to be sold at retail prices.

  6. Maturity, size at age and predator-prey relationships of winter skate Leucoraja ocellata in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence: potentially an undescribed endemic facing extirpation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, J T; Hanson, J M

    2013-03-01

    The goals of this study were to document the size and age structure, size at maturity, ovarian fecundity and diet of the endangered population of winter skate Leucoraja ocellata that resides in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence (SGSL). The maximum size observed for SGSL L. ocellata was 68 cm total length (LT ) but >99% of animals caught were 10 mm diameter were ever observed. At 40 cm LT , the diet changed from one dominated by shrimp Crangon septemspinosa and gammarid amphipods to one dominated by fishes (mainly sand lance Ammodytes spp. and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax) and Atlantic rock crab Cancer irroratus. Sufficient differences were observed between SGSL L. ocellata and other populations in their size-at-maturity pattern and maximum size to propose the taxonomic re-evaluation of the population. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  7. How much is too much? Assessment of prey consumption by Magellanic penguins in Patagonian colonies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan E Sala

    Full Text Available Penguins are major consumers in the southern oceans although quantification of this has been problematic. One suggestion proposes the use of points of inflection in diving profiles ('wiggles' for this, a method that has been validated for the estimation of prey consumption by Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus by Simeone and Wilson (2003. Following them, we used wiggles from 31 depth logger-equipped Magellanic penguins foraging from four Patagonian colonies; Punta Norte (PN, Bahía Bustamente (BB, Puerto Deseado (PD and Puerto San Julián (PSJ, all located in Argentina between 42-49° S, to estimate the prey captured and calculate the catch per unit time (CPUT for birds foraging during the early chick-rearing period. Numbers of prey caught and CPUT were significantly different between colonies. Birds from PD caught the highest number of prey per foraging trip, with CPUT values of 68±19 prey per hour underwater (almost two times greater than for the three remaining colonies. We modeled consumption from these data and calculate that the world Magellanic penguin population consumes about 2 million tons of prey per year. Possible errors in this calculation are discussed. Despite this, the analysis of wiggles seems a powerful and simple tool to begin to quantify prey consumption by Magellanic penguins, allowing comparison between different breeding sites. The total number of wiggles and/or CPUT do not reflect, by themselves, the availability of food for each colony, as the number of prey consumed by foraging trip is strongly associated with the energy content and wet mass of each colony-specific 'prey type'. Individuals consuming more profitable prey could be optimizing the time spent underwater, thereby optimizing the energy expenditure associated with the dives.

  8. Detecting spatial structures in throughfall data: The effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and variogram estimation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

    2016-09-01

    In the last decades, an increasing number of studies analyzed spatial patterns in throughfall by means of variograms. The estimation of the variogram from sample data requires an appropriate sampling scheme: most importantly, a large sample and a layout of sampling locations that often has to serve both variogram estimation and geostatistical prediction. While some recommendations on these aspects exist, they focus on Gaussian data and high ratios of the variogram range to the extent of the study area. However, many hydrological data, and throughfall data in particular, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. In this study, we examined the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and calculation method on variogram estimation of throughfall data. For our investigation, we first generated non-Gaussian random fields based on throughfall data with large outliers. Subsequently, we sampled the fields with three extents (plots with edge lengths of 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m), four common sampling designs (two grid-based layouts, transect and random sampling) and five sample sizes (50, 100, 150, 200, 400). We then estimated the variogram parameters by method-of-moments (non-robust and robust estimators) and residual maximum likelihood. Our key findings are threefold. First, the choice of the extent has a substantial influence on the estimation of the variogram. A comparatively small ratio of the extent to the correlation length is beneficial for variogram estimation. Second, a combination of a minimum sample size of 150, a design that ensures the sampling of small distances and variogram estimation by residual maximum likelihood offers a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency. Third, studies relying on method-of-moments based variogram estimation may have to employ at least 200 sampling points for reliable variogram estimates. These suggested sample sizes exceed the number recommended by studies dealing with Gaussian data by up to 100 %. Given that most previous

  9. Effects of dams on downstream molluscan predator-prey interactions in the Colorado River estuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jansen A; Handley, John C; Dietl, Gregory P

    2018-05-30

    River systems worldwide have been modified for human use and the downstream ecological consequences are often poorly understood. In the Colorado River estuary, where upstream water diversions have limited freshwater input during the last century, mollusc remains from the last several hundred years suggest widespread ecological change. The once abundant clam Mulinia modesta has undergone population declines of approximately 94% and populations of predators relying on this species as a food source have probably declined, switched to alternative prey species or both. We distinguish between the first two hypotheses using a null model of predation preference to test whether M. modesta was preyed upon selectively by the naticid snail, Neverita reclusiana , along the estuary's past salinity gradient. To evaluate the third hypothesis, we estimate available prey biomass today and in the past, assuming prey were a limiting resource. Data on the frequency of drill holes-identifiable traces of naticid predation on prey shells-showed several species, including M. modesta , were preferred prey. Neverita reclusiana was probably able to switch prey. Available prey biomass also declined, suggesting the N. reclusiana population probably also declined. These results indicate a substantial change to the structure of the benthic food web. Given the global scale of water management, such changes have probably also occurred in many of the world's estuaries. © 2018 The Author(s).

  10. Encounter success of free-ranging marine predator movements across a dynamic prey landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, David W; Witt, Matthew J; Richardson, Anthony J; Southall, Emily J; Metcalfe, Julian D

    2006-05-22

    Movements of wide-ranging top predators can now be studied effectively using satellite and archival telemetry. However, the motivations underlying movements remain difficult to determine because trajectories are seldom related to key biological gradients, such as changing prey distributions. Here, we use a dynamic prey landscape of zooplankton biomass in the north-east Atlantic Ocean to examine active habitat selection in the plankton-feeding basking shark Cetorhinus maximus. The relative success of shark searches across this landscape was examined by comparing prey biomass encountered by sharks with encounters by random-walk simulations of 'model' sharks. Movements of transmitter-tagged sharks monitored for 964 days (16754 km estimated minimum distance) were concentrated on the European continental shelf in areas characterized by high seasonal productivity and complex prey distributions. We show movements by adult and sub-adult sharks yielded consistently higher prey encounter rates than 90% of random-walk simulations. Behavioural patterns were consistent with basking sharks using search tactics structured across multiple scales to exploit the richest prey areas available in preferred habitats. Simple behavioural rules based on learned responses to previously encountered prey distributions may explain the high performances. This study highlights how dynamic prey landscapes enable active habitat selection in large predators to be investigated from a trophic perspective, an approach that may inform conservation by identifying critical habitat of vulnerable species.

  11. Demographic consequences of predators on prey: trait and density mediated effects on mosquito larvae in containers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barry W Alto

    Full Text Available Predators may affect prey population growth and community diversity through density mediated lethal and trait mediated non-lethal effects that influence phenotypic traits of prey. We tested experimentally the roles of thinning the density of prey (lethality in the absence of predator cues and density and trait mediated effects (lethality + intimidation of predatory midge Corethrella appendiculata on competing native and invasive mosquito prey. Predator-mediated reductions in prey and density reductions in the absence of C. appendiculata resulted in lower percent survivorship to adulthood and estimates of the finite rate of increase (λ' for invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus relative to that of controls. In most instances, thinning the density of prey in the absence, but not in the presence, of C. appendiculata cues resulted in lower survivorship to adulthood and λ' for native mosquito Aedes triseriatus relative to that of controls. Together, these results suggested trait mediated effects of C. appendiculata specific to each species of mosquito prey. Release from intraspecific competition attributable to density reductions in the absence, but not in the presence, of C. appendiculata enhanced growth and lengthened adult lifespan relative to that of controls for A. albopictus but not A. triseriatus. These results show the importance of predator-mediated density and trait mediated effects on phenotypic traits and populations of invasive and native mosquitoes. Species-specific differences in the phenotypic responses of prey may be due, in part, to longer evolutionary history of C. appendiculata with A. triseriatus than A. albopictus.

  12. Energetic solutions of Rock Sandpipers to harsh winter conditions rely on prey quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Dekinga, Anne; Gill, Robert E.; Piersma, Theunis

    2018-01-01

    Rock Sandpipers Calidris ptilocnemis have the most northerly non-breeding distribution of any shorebird in the Pacific Basin (upper Cook Inlet, Alaska; 61°N, 151°W). In terms of freezing temperatures, persistent winds and pervasive ice, this site is the harshest used by shorebirds during winter. We integrated physiological, metabolic, behavioural and environmental aspects of the non-breeding ecology of Rock Sandpipers at the northern extent of their range to determine the relative importance of these factors in facilitating their unique non-breeding ecology. Not surprisingly, estimated daily energetic demands were greatest during January, the coldest period of winter. These estimates were greatest for foraging birds, and exceeded basal metabolic rates by a factor of 6.5, a scope of increase that approaches the maximum sustained rate of energetic output by shorebirds during periods of migration, but far exceeds these periods in duration. We assessed the quality of their primary prey, the bivalve Macoma balthica, to determine the daily foraging duration required by Rock Sandpipers to satisfy such energetic demands. Based on size-specific estimates of M. balthica quality, Rock Sandpipers require over 13 h/day of foraging time in upper Cook Inlet in January, even when feeding on the highest quality prey. This range approaches the average daily duration of mudflat availability in this region (c. 18 h), a maximum value that annually decreases due to the accumulation of shore-fast ice. Rock Sandpipers are likely to maximize access to foraging sites by following the exposure of ice-free mudflats across the upper Cook Inlet region and by selecting smaller, higher quality M. balthica to minimize foraging times. Ultimately, this unusual non-breeding ecology relies on the high quality of their prey resources. Compared with other sites across their range, M. balthica from upper Cook Inlet have relatively light shells, potentially the result of the region

  13. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Monson

    Full Text Available During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2 (std. err. = 0.02, herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06 and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  14. Seasonal trophic activity of the aquatic morphotype of Atelognathus patagonicus (Anura, Neobatrachia and prey availability in the littoral benthos of a permanent pond in Argentinean Patagonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Elena Cuello

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The diet of the aquatic morphotype of Atelognathus patagonicus was studied in frogs collected from the Laguna Verde pond (Laguna Blanca National Park, Neuquén, Argentina. The content of 35 gastrointestinal tracts of post-metamorphic specimens from November 2003 to April 2006 was related to the composition of the benthos in their microhabitat. Number, size, occurrence and relative importance of preys, diversity of the diet, trophic niche breadth and electivitywere estimated for each season of the year. The diet consisted of aquatic arthropods. The composition of both the benthos and the food (number and occurrence of organisms in the diet were dominated by the amphipod Hyalella sp. The relative importance (IRI of Hyalella sp. in the diet was over 99% in summer and autumn, and 100% in winter and spring. Diptera and Copepoda in summer, and Dytiscidae and Ostracoda in autumn, had seasonal IRI values ≤ 0.2%. Trophic niche breadth was very low in summer and autumn, and null (= 0 in winter and spring. The mean number of preys per individual was highest in spring (19 preys/frog and lowest in winter (4 preys/frog. Frogs continued with their trophic activity in winter, even when the surface of the pond was frozen. There is a correspondence between the frogs’ main food item and its presence in the benthos.

  15. An Estimation of the Number and Size of Atoms in a Printed Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Beth; Collett, Edward; Tabor-Morris, Anne; Croman, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Elementary school students learn that atoms are very, very small. Students are also taught that atoms (and molecules) are the fundamental constituents of the material world. Numerical values of their size are often given, but, nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine their size relative to one's everyday surroundings. In order for students to…

  16. Semi-empirical formula for large pore-size estimation from o-Ps annihilation lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen Duc Thanh; Tran Quoc Dung; Luu Anh Tuyen; Khuong Thanh Tuan

    2007-01-01

    The o-Ps annihilation rate in large pore was investigated by the semi-classical approach. The semi-empirical formula that simply correlates between the pore size and the o-Ps lifetime was proposed. The calculated results agree well with experiment in the range from some angstroms to several ten nanometers size of pore. (author)

  17. Estimation of the PCR efficiency based on a size-dependent modelling of the amplification process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lalam, N.; Jacob, C.; Jagers, P.

    2005-01-01

    We propose a stochastic modelling of the PCR amplification process by a size-dependent branching process starting as a supercritical Bienaymé–Galton–Watson transient phase and then having a saturation near-critical size-dependent phase. This model based on the concept of saturation allows one to

  18. Estimating expenditure on male and female offspring in a sexually size-dimorphic bird : A comparison of different methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magrath, Michael J. L.; Van Lieshout, Emile; Pen, Ido; Visser, G. Henk; Komdeur, Jan

    2007-01-01

    1. The parents of sexually size-dimorphic offspring are often assumed to invest more resources producing individuals of the larger sex. A range of different methods have been employed to estimate relative expenditure on the sexes, including quantifying sex-specific offspring growth, food intake,

  19. Estimating expenditure on male and female offspring in a sexually size-dimorphic bird : A comparison of different methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magrath, Michael J. L.; Van Lieshout, Emile; Pen, Ido; Visser, G. Henk; Komdeur, Jan

    1. The parents of sexually size-dimorphic offspring are often assumed to invest more resources producing individuals of the larger sex. A range of different methods have been employed to estimate relative expenditure on the sexes, including quantifying sex-specific offspring growth, food intake,

  20. Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

  1. Plant architecture and prey distribution influence foraging behavior of the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis (Acari: Phytoseiidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontijo, Lessando M; Nechols, James R; Margolies, David C; Cloyd, Raymond A

    2012-01-01

    The arrangement, number, and size of plant parts may influence predator foraging behavior, either directly, by altering the rate or pattern of predator movement, or, indirectly, by affecting the distribution and abundance of prey. We report on the effects of both plant architecture and prey distribution on foraging by the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae), on cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.). Plants differed in leaf number (2- or 6-leafed), and there were associated differences in leaf size, plant height, and relative proportions of plant parts; but all had the same total surface area. The prey, the twospotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae), were distributed either on the basal leaf or on all leaves. The effect of plant architecture on predator foraging behavior varied depending on prey distribution. The dimensions of individual plant parts affected time allocated to moving and feeding, but they did not appear to influence the frequency with which predators moved among different plant parts. Overall, P. persimilis moved less, and fed upon prey longer, on 6-leafed plants with prey on all leaves than on plants representing other treatment combinations. Our findings suggest that both plant architecture and pattern of prey distribution should be considered, along with other factors such as herbivore-induced plant volatiles, in augmentative biological control programs.

  2. Impact of marine reserve on maximum sustainable yield in a traditional prey-predator system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Prosenjit; Kar, T. K.; Ghorai, Abhijit

    2018-01-01

    Multispecies fisheries management requires managers to consider the impact of fishing activities on several species as fishing impacts both targeted and non-targeted species directly or indirectly in several ways. The intended goal of traditional fisheries management is to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) from the targeted species, which on many occasions affect the targeted species as well as the entire ecosystem. Marine reserves are often acclaimed as the marine ecosystem management tool. Few attempts have been made to generalize the ecological effects of marine reserve on MSY policy. We examine here how MSY and population level in a prey-predator system are affected by the low, medium and high reserve size under different possible scenarios. Our simulation works shows that low reserve area, the value of MSY for prey exploitation is maximum when both prey and predator species have fast movement rate. For medium reserve size, our analysis revealed that the maximum value of MSY for prey exploitation is obtained when prey population has fast movement rate and predator population has slow movement rate. For high reserve area, the maximum value of MSY for prey's exploitation is very low compared to the maximum value of MSY for prey's exploitation in case of low and medium reserve. On the other hand, for low and medium reserve area, MSY for predator exploitation is maximum when both the species have fast movement rate.

  3. Tri-spine horseshoe crab, Tachypleus tridentatus (L. in Sabah, Malaysia: the adult body sizes and population estimate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azwarfarid Manca

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The dwindling number of the tri-spine horseshoe crab, Tachypleus tridentatus has been reported globally and its status in Malaysia is not much known. Study on dimorphism in adult body sizes and population size estimation were conducted using capture–mark–recapture method of adult T. tridentatus in Tawau, Sabah. Camry the estimated population sizes of T. tridentatus ranged from 182 to 1095 with 95% confident limits of 56–42,942 individuals (Schnabel formula. The multivariate discriminant Hotelling’s T2 test verifies the sexual size dimorphism among the adult T. tridentatus with 97.7% separation among sexes (Hotelling’s T2 = 778.49, F = 152.85, p < 0.001 with females being larger and heavier than the male individuals. The number estimated from the study is the first reported for T. tridentatus in Malaysia, particularly in Sabah. Even though this number may slightly overestimate the actual population size in the area owing to the low number of individuals recaptured, for now it could serve as baseline data for horseshoe crab management purpose.

  4. Robust variance estimation with dependent effect sizes: practical considerations including a software tutorial in Stata and spss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-Smith, Emily E; Tipton, Elizabeth

    2014-03-01

    Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and spss (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding the practical application and implementation of those macros. This paper provides a brief tutorial on the implementation of the Stata and spss macros and discusses practical issues meta-analysts should consider when estimating meta-regression models with robust variance estimates. Two example databases are used in the tutorial to illustrate the use of meta-analysis with robust variance estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Kelp Forests versus Urchin Barrens: Alternate Stable States and Their Effect on Sea Otter Prey Quality in the Aleutian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan L. Stewart

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Macroalgal and urchin barren communities are alternately stable and persist in the Aleutians due to sea otter presence and absence. In the early 1990s a rapid otter population decline released urchins from predation and caused a shift to the urchin-dominated state. Despite increases in urchin abundance, otter numbers continued to decline. Although debated, prey quality changes have been implicated in current otter population status. This study examined otter prey abundance, size, biomass, and potential energy density in remnant kelp forest and urchin-dominated communities to determine if alternate stable states affect prey quality. Findings suggest that although urchin barrens provide more abundant urchin prey, individual urchins are smaller and provide lower biomass and potential energy density compared to kelp forests. Shifts to urchin barrens do affect prey quality but changes are likely compensated by increased prey densities and are insufficient in explaining current otter population status in the Aleutians.

  6. Is the red spotted green frog Hypsiboas punctatus (Anura: Hylidae) selecting its preys? The importance of prey availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Javier A; Scarabotti, Pablo A; Medrano, María C; Ghirardi, Romina

    2009-09-01

    The study of the feeding ecology of amphibians is an old issue in herpetology. Notwithstanding, the lack of food resources data in many studies of amphibians feeding has lead to partial understanding of frog feeding strategies. In this study we evaluate the trophic selectivity of a red spotted green frog (Hypsiboas punctatus) population from a Middle Paraná River floodplain pond in Argentina, and discuss the importance of prey availability data when interpreting results from diet analysis. We analyzed the gut contents of 47 H. punctatus adults and compared frog's diet with the environmental food resources. Prey availability was estimated by systematically seep-netting the microhabitat where anurans were localized foraging. We identified 33 taxonomic categories from gastrointestinal contents. Numerically, the most important prey categories were dipterans, followed by hemipterans, homopterans and coleopterans. The diet similarity between males and females was high and no statistical differences in diet composition were found. The most abundant food resources in the environment were dipterans, coleopterans, homopterans and collembolans. In order to assess whether frogs were selecting their preys, we calculated Pianka's niche overlap index and Jacobs' electivity index comparing gut contents to prey availability data. Trophic niche overlap was medium but significantly higher than expected by chance. The electivity index indicated that H. punctatus foraged dipterans slightly above their environmental abundance. Among the secondary preys, hemipterans were foraged selectively, homopterans were consumed in the same proportion to their occurrence in the environment, coleopterans were foraged quite under their availability and collembolans were practically ignored by frogs. Without food resources data, H. punctatus could be classified as a specialist feeder, but dipterans also were quite abundant in the environment. Our results show that H. punctatus fit better as a

  7. Spatial pattern corrections and sample sizes for forest density estimates of historical tree surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice B. Hanberry; Shawn Fraver; Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Dan C. Dey; Brian J. Palik

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. General Land Office land surveys document trees present during European settlement. However, use of these surveys for calculating historical forest density and other derived metrics is limited by uncertainty about the performance of plotless density estimators under a range of conditions. Therefore, we tested two plotless density estimators, developed by...

  8. Estimating group size: effects of category membership, differential construal and selective exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosveld, W.; Koomen, W.; van der Pligt, J.

    1996-01-01

    Examined the role of category membership, differential construal, and selective exposure in consensus estimation concerning the social categorization of religion. 54 involved and less involved Christians and 40 non-believers were asked to estimate the percentage of Christians in the Netherlands

  9. Sample Size for Estimation of G and Phi Coefficients in Generalizability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilgan, Hakan

    2013-01-01

    Problem Statement: Reliability, which refers to the degree to which measurement results are free from measurement errors, as well as its estimation, is an important issue in psychometrics. Several methods for estimating reliability have been suggested by various theories in the field of psychometrics. One of these theories is the generalizability…

  10. Numerical method for estimating the size of chaotic regions of phase space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henyey, F.S.; Pomphrey, N.

    1987-10-01

    A numerical method for estimating irregular volumes of phase space is derived. The estimate weights the irregular area on a surface of section with the average return time to the section. We illustrate the method by application to the stadium and oval billiard systems and also apply the method to the continuous Henon-Heiles system. 15 refs., 10 figs

  11. Feeding opportunities of larval and juvenile cod (Gadus morhua) in a Greenlandic fjord: temporal and spatial linkages between cod and their preferred prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swalethorp, Rasmus; Kjellerup, Sanne; Malanski, Evandro

    2014-01-01

    preferences of the early-life stages of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to quantify the availability of prey during a spring-summer season in a West Greenlandic fjord. We hypothesized that abundances of larval and juvenile cod at size were synchronized to optimal availability of preferred prey in space and time....... These findings stress the importance of focusing on abundance of preferred prey when assessing the actual prey availability to young fish. We found a spatio-temporal overlap between cod and their preferred prey, and observations suggest that advection of both zooplankton and cod contributed to this overlap...

  12. Prey selection of corallivorous muricids at Koh Tao (Gulf of Thailand) four years after a major coral bleaching event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moerland, M.S.; Scott, C.M.; Hoeksema, B.W.

    2016-01-01

    Corallivorous Drupella (Muricidae) snails at Koh Tao are reported to have extended their range of prey species following a major coral bleaching event in 2010. Populations of their preferred Acropora prey had locally diminished in both size and abundance, and the snails had introduced free-living

  13. The modeling of predator-prey interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Shakil; H. A. Wahab; Muhammad Naeem, et al.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we aim to study the interactions between the territorial animals like foxes and the rabbits. The territories for the foxes are considered to be the simple cells. The interactions between predator and its prey are represented by the chemical reactions which obey the mass action law. In this sense, we apply the mass action law for predator prey models and the quasi chemical approach is applied for the interactions between the predator and its prey to develop the modeled equations...

  14. The Neuronal Control of Flying Prey Interception in Dragonflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-19

    Gonzalez-Bellido’s fluorescent dye ( Lucifer -yellow) injections illuminated for the first time the anatomy of the output regions of the TSDNs...out in Cape Cod (MA) to test the effect of bead size(C), and in the Olberg Laboratory (Union College, NY) to test the effect of bead speed by...AFRL-OSR-VA-TR-2014-0193 THE NEURONAL CONTROL OF FLYING PREY INTERCEPTION IN DRAGONFLIES Robert Olberg TRUSTEES OF UNION COLLEGE IN THE TOWN OF

  15. Estimation of the target stem-cell population size in chronic myeloid leukemogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radivoyevitch, T.; Ramsey, M.J.; Tucker, J.D.

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of the number of hematopoietic stem cells capable of causing chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is relevant to the development of biologically based risk models of radiation-induced CML. Through a comparison of the age structure of CML incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and the age structure of chromosomal translocations found in healthy subjects, the number of CML target stem cells is estimated for individuals above 20 years of age. The estimation involves three steps. First, CML incidence among adults is fit to an exponentially increasing function of age. Next, assuming a relatively short waiting time distribution between BCR-ABL induction and the appearance of CML, an exponential age function with rate constants fixed to the values found for CML is fitted to the translocation data. Finally, assuming that translocations are equally likely to occur between any two points in the genome, the parameter estimates found in the first two steps are used to estimate the number of target stem cells for CML. The population-averaged estimates of this number are found to be 1.86 x 10 8 for men and 1.21 x 10 8 for women; the 95% confidence intervals of these estimates are (1.34 x 10 8 , 2.50 x 10 8 ) and (0.84 x 10 8 , 1.83 x 10 8 ), respectively. (orig.)

  16. Estimating Divergence Time and Ancestral Effective Population Size of Bornean and Sumatran Orangutan Subspecies Using a Coalescent Hidden Markov Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mailund, Thomas; Dutheil, Julien; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-01-01

    event has occurred to split them apart. The size of these segments of constant divergence depends on the recombination rate, but also on the speciation time, the effective population size of the ancestral population, as well as demographic effects and selection. Thus, inference of these parameters may......, and the ancestral effective population size. The model is efficient enough to allow inference on whole-genome data sets. We first investigate the power and consistency of the model with coalescent simulations and then apply it to the whole-genome sequences of the two orangutan sub-species, Bornean (P. p. pygmaeus......) and Sumatran (P. p. abelii) orangutans from the Orangutan Genome Project. We estimate the speciation time between the two sub-species to be thousand years ago and the effective population size of the ancestral orangutan species to be , consistent with recent results based on smaller data sets. We also report...

  17. Evaluation of species richness estimators based on quantitative performance measures and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willie, Jacob; Petre, Charles-Albert; Tagg, Nikki; Lens, Luc

    2012-11-01

    Data from forest herbaceous plants in a site of known species richness in Cameroon were used to test the performance of rarefaction and eight species richness estimators (ACE, ICE, Chao1, Chao2, Jack1, Jack2, Bootstrap and MM). Bias, accuracy, precision and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size were the evaluation criteria. An evaluation of the effects of sampling effort and patchiness on diversity estimation is also provided. Stems were identified and counted in linear series of 1-m2 contiguous square plots distributed in six habitat types. Initially, 500 plots were sampled in each habitat type. The sampling process was monitored using rarefaction and a set of richness estimator curves. Curves from the first dataset suggested adequate sampling in riparian forest only. Additional plots ranging from 523 to 2143 were subsequently added in the undersampled habitats until most of the curves stabilized. Jack1 and ICE, the non-parametric richness estimators, performed better, being more accurate and less sensitive to patchiness and sample grain size, and significantly reducing biases that could not be detected by rarefaction and other estimators. This study confirms the usefulness of non-parametric incidence-based estimators, and recommends Jack1 or ICE alongside rarefaction while describing taxon richness and comparing results across areas sampled using similar or different grain sizes. As patchiness varied across habitat types, accurate estimations of diversity did not require the same number of plots. The number of samples needed to fully capture diversity is not necessarily the same across habitats, and can only be known when taxon sampling curves have indicated adequate sampling. Differences in observed species richness between habitats were generally due to differences in patchiness, except between two habitats where they resulted from differences in abundance. We suggest that communities should first be sampled thoroughly using appropriate taxon sampling

  18. Estimation of optimal size of plots for experiments with radiometer in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aghomotsegin

    2015-07-29

    Jul 29, 2015 ... 2362 Afr. J. Biotechnol. damage ... methods for its estimation based on different principles ... and shapes are simulated through the sum of contiguous ... coefficient c and the linear coefficient d, both from the line yr, are fixed.

  19. "Prey Play": Learning about Predators and Prey through an Interactive, Role-Play Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deaton, Cynthia C. M.; Dodd, Kristen; Drennon, Katherine; Nagle, Jack

    2012-01-01

    "Prey Play" is an interactive role-play activity that provides fifth-grade students with opportunities to examine predator-prey interactions. This four-part, role-play activity allows students to take on the role of a predator and prey as they reflect on the behaviors animals exhibit as they collect food and interact with one another, as well as…

  20. Estimation by radiation inactivation of the size of functional units governing Sendai and influenza virus fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundo-Morita, K.; Gibson, S.; Lenard, J.

    1987-01-01

    The target sizes associated with fusion and hemolysis carried out by Sendai virus envelope glycoproteins were determined by radiation inactivation analysis. The target size for influenza virus mediated fusion with erythrocyte ghosts at pH 5.0 was also determined for comparison. Sendai-mediated fusion with erythrocyte ghosts at pH 7.0 was likewise inactivated exponentially with increasing radiation dose, yielding a target size of 60 +/- 6 kDa, a value consistent with the molecular weight of a single F-protein molecule. The inactivation curve for Sendai-mediated fusion with cardiolipin liposomes at pH 7.0, however, was more complex. Assuming a multiple target-single hit model, the target consisted of 2-3 units of ca. 60 kDa each. A similar target was seen if the liposome contained 10% gangliosides or if the reaction was measured at pH 5.0, suggesting that fusion occurred by the same mechanism at high and low pH. A target size of 261 +/- 48 kDa was found for Sendai-induced hemolysis, in contrast with influenza, which had a more complex target size for this activity. Sendai virus fusion thus occurs by different mechanisms depending upon the nature of the target membrane, since it is mediated by different functional units. Hemolysis is mediated by a functional unit different from that associated with erythrocyte ghost fusion or with cardiolipin liposome fusion

  1. Characterization and source estimation of size-segregated aerosols during 2008-2012 in an urban environment in Beijing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Lingda; Wang, Guangfu; Zhang, Renjiang

    2013-01-01

    Full text: During 2008-2012, size-segregated aerosol samples were collected using an eight-stage cascade impactor at Beijing Normal University (BNU) Site, China. These samples were analyzed using particle induced X-ray emission (PIXE) analysis for concentrations of 21 elements consisting of Mg, AI, Si, P, S, CI, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Br, Ba and Pb. The size-resolved data sets were then analyzed using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) technique in order to identify possible sources and estimate their contribution to particulate matter mass. Nine sources were resolved in eight size ranges (025 ∼ 16μm) and included secondary sulphur, motor vehicles, coal combustion; oil combustion, road dust, biomass burning, soil dust, diesel vehicles and metal processing. PMF analysis of size-resolved source contributions showed that natural sources represented by soil dust and road dust contributed about 57% to the predicted primary particulate matter (PM) mass in the coarse size range(>2μm). On the other hand, anthropogenic sources such as secondary sulphur, coal and oil combustion, biomass burning and motor vehicle contributed about 73% in the fine size range <2μm). The diesel vehicles and secondary sulphur source contributed the most in the ultra-fine size range (<0.25μm) and was responsible for about 52% of the primary PM mass. (author)

  2. Characterization and source estimation of size-segregated aerosols during 2008-2012 in an urban environment in Beijing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Lingda [Key Laboratory of Beam Technology and Materiais Modification of Ministry of Education, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing (China); Wang, Guangfu, E-mail: guangfuw@bnu.edu.cn [Beijing Radiation Center, Beijing (China); Zhang, Renjiang [Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate Eas tAsia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing (China)

    2013-07-01

    Full text: During 2008-2012, size-segregated aerosol samples were collected using an eight-stage cascade impactor at Beijing Normal University (BNU) Site, China. These samples were analyzed using particle induced X-ray emission (PIXE) analysis for concentrations of 21 elements consisting of Mg, AI, Si, P, S, CI, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Br, Ba and Pb. The size-resolved data sets were then analyzed using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) technique in order to identify possible sources and estimate their contribution to particulate matter mass. Nine sources were resolved in eight size ranges (025 ∼ 16μm) and included secondary sulphur, motor vehicles, coal combustion; oil combustion, road dust, biomass burning, soil dust, diesel vehicles and metal processing. PMF analysis of size-resolved source contributions showed that natural sources represented by soil dust and road dust contributed about 57% to the predicted primary particulate matter (PM) mass in the coarse size range(>2μm). On the other hand, anthropogenic sources such as secondary sulphur, coal and oil combustion, biomass burning and motor vehicle contributed about 73% in the fine size range <2μm). The diesel vehicles and secondary sulphur source contributed the most in the ultra-fine size range (<0.25μm) and was responsible for about 52% of the primary PM mass. (author)

  3. Estimating sample size for landscape-scale mark-recapture studies of North American migratory tree bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Laura E.; Lukacs, Paul M.

    2014-01-01

    Concern for migratory tree-roosting bats in North America has grown because of possible population declines from wind energy development. This concern has driven interest in estimating population-level changes. Mark-recapture methodology is one possible analytical framework for assessing bat population changes, but sample size requirements to produce reliable estimates have not been estimated. To illustrate the sample sizes necessary for a mark-recapture-based monitoring program we conducted power analyses using a statistical model that allows reencounters of live and dead marked individuals. We ran 1,000 simulations for each of five broad sample size categories in a Burnham joint model, and then compared the proportion of simulations in which 95% confidence intervals overlapped between and among years for a 4-year study. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses of sample size to various capture probabilities and recovery probabilities. More than 50,000 individuals per year would need to be captured and released to accurately determine 10% and 15% declines in annual survival. To detect more dramatic declines of 33% or 50% survival over four years, then sample sizes of 25,000 or 10,000 per year, respectively, would be sufficient. Sensitivity analyses reveal that increasing recovery of dead marked individuals may be more valuable than increasing capture probability of marked individuals. Because of the extraordinary effort that would be required, we advise caution should such a mark-recapture effort be initiated because of the difficulty in attaining reliable estimates. We make recommendations for what techniques show the most promise for mark-recapture studies of bats because some techniques violate the assumptions of mark-recapture methodology when used to mark bats.

  4. The proportionator: unbiased stereological estimation using biased automatic image analysis and non-uniform probability proportional to size sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gardi, Jonathan Eyal; Nyengaard, Jens Randel; Gundersen, Hans Jørgen Gottlieb

    2008-01-01

    examined, which in turn leads to any of the known stereological estimates, including size distributions and spatial distributions. The unbiasedness is not a function of the assumed relation between the weight and the structure, which is in practice always a biased relation from a stereological (integral......, the desired number of fields are sampled automatically with probability proportional to the weight and presented to the expert observer. Using any known stereological probe and estimator, the correct count in these fields leads to a simple, unbiased estimate of the total amount of structure in the sections...... geometric) point of view. The efficiency of the proportionator depends, however, directly on this relation to be positive. The sampling and estimation procedure is simulated in sections with characteristics and various kinds of noises in possibly realistic ranges. In all cases examined, the proportionator...

  5. Development of a sampling strategy and sample size calculation to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Jae Kwan; Kim, Mi Jin; Choi, Kui Son; Suh, Mina; Jung, Kyu-Won

    2012-01-01

    Mammographic breast density is a known risk factor for breast cancer. To conduct a survey to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women, appropriate sampling strategies for representative and efficient sampling design were evaluated through simulation. Using the target population from the National Cancer Screening Programme (NCSP) for breast cancer in 2009, we verified the distribution estimate by repeating the simulation 1,000 times using stratified random sampling to investigate the distribution of breast density of 1,340,362 women. According to the simulation results, using a sampling design stratifying the nation into three groups (metropolitan, urban, and rural), with a total sample size of 4,000, we estimated the distribution of breast density in Korean women at a level of 0.01% tolerance. Based on the results of our study, a nationwide survey for estimating the distribution of mammographic breast density among Korean women can be conducted efficiently.

  6. Determination of subcellular compartment sizes for estimating dose variations in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poole, Christopher M.; Ahnesjo, Anders; Enger, Shirin A.

    2015-01-01

    The variation in specific energy absorbed to different cell compartments caused by variations in size and chemical composition is poorly investigated in radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to derive cell and cell nuclei size distributions from 2D histology samples, and build 3D cellular geometries to provide Monte Carlo (MC)-based dose calculation engines with a morphologically relevant input geometry. Stained and unstained regions of the histology samples are segmented using a Gaussian mixture model, and individual cell nuclei are identified via thresholding. Delaunay triangulation is applied to determine the distribution of distances between the centroids of nearest neighbour cells. A pouring simulation is used to build a 3D virtual tissue sample, with cell radii randomised according to the cell size distribution determined from the histology samples. A slice with the same thickness as the histology sample is cut through the 3D data and characterised in the same way as the measured histology. The comparison between this virtual slice and the measured histology is used to adjust the initial cell size distribution into the pouring simulation. This iterative approach of a pouring simulation with adjustments guided by comparison is continued until an input cell size distribution is found that yields a distribution in the sliced geometry that agrees with the measured histology samples. The thus obtained morphologically realistic 3D cellular geometry can be used as input to MC-based dose calculation programs for studies of dose response due to variations in morphology and size of tumour/healthy tissue cells/nuclei, and extracellular material. (authors)

  7. A New, Simple Method for Estimating Pleural Effusion Size on CT Scans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moy, Matthew P.; Berko, Netanel S.; Godelman, Alla; Jain, Vineet R.; Haramati, Linda B.

    2013-01-01

    Background: There is no standardized system to grade pleural effusion size on CT scans. A validated, systematic grading system would improve communication of findings and may help determine the need for imaging guidance for thoracentesis. Methods: CT scans of 34 patients demonstrating a wide range of pleural effusion sizes were measured with a volume segmentation tool and reviewed for qualitative and simple quantitative features related to size. A classification rule was developed using the features that best predicted size and distinguished among small, moderate, and large effusions. Inter-reader agreement for effusion size was assessed on the CT scans for three groups of physicians (radiology residents, pulmonologists, and cardiothoracic radiologists) before and after implementation of the classification rule. Results: The CT imaging features found to best classify effusions as small, moderate, or large were anteroposterior (AP) quartile and maximum AP depth measured at the midclavicular line. According to the decision rule, first AP-quartile effusions are small, second AP-quartile effusions are moderate, and third or fourth AP-quartile effusions are large. In borderline cases, AP depth is measured with 3-cm and 10-cm thresholds for the upper limit of small and moderate, respectively. Use of the rule improved interobserver agreement from κ = 0.56 to 0.79 for all physicians, 0.59 to 0.73 for radiology residents, 0.54 to 0.76 for pulmonologists, and 0.74 to 0.85 for cardiothoracic radiologists. Conclusions: A simple, two-step decision rule for sizing pleural effusions on CT scans improves interobserver agreement from moderate to substantial levels. PMID:23632863

  8. A community-level evaluation of the impact of prey behavioural and ecological characteristics on predator diet composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Susanne; Noë, Ronald; McGraw, W Scott; Dunbar, R I M

    2004-04-07

    Although predation avoidance is the most commonly invoked explanation for vertebrate social evolution, there is little evidence that individuals in larger groups experience lower predation rates than those in small groups. We compare the morphological and behavioural traits of mammal prey species in the Taï forest, Ivory Coast, with the diet preferences of three of their non-human predators: leopards, chimpanzees and African crowned eagles. Individual predators show marked differences in their predation rates on prey species of different body sizes, but clear patterns with prey behaviour were apparent only when differences in prey habitat use were incorporated into the analyses. Leopard predation rates are highest for terrestrial species living in smaller groups, whereas eagle predation rates are negatively correlated with group size only among arboreal prey. When prey predation rates are summed over all three predators, terrestrial species incur higher predation rates than arboreal species and, within both categories, predation rates decline with increasing prey group size and decreasing density of groups in the habitat. These results reveal that it is necessary to consider anti-predator strategies in the context of a dynamic behavioural interaction between predators and prey.

  9. Disturbed flow in an aquatic environment may create a sensory refuge for aggregated prey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asa Johannesen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Predators use olfactory cues moved within water and air to locate prey. Because prey aggregations may produce more cue and be easier to detect, predation could limit aggregation size. However, disturbance in the flow may diminish the reliability of odour as a prey cue, impeding predator foraging success and efficiency. We explore how different cue concentrations (as a proxy for prey group size affect risk to prey by fish predators in disturbed (more turbulent or mixed and non-disturbed (less mixed flowing water. We find that increasing odour cue concentration increases predation risk and disturbing the flow reduces predation risk. At high cue concentration fish were able to locate the cue source in both disturbed and non-disturbed flow, but at medium concentrations, predators only located the cue source more often than expected by chance in non-disturbed flow. This suggests that objects disturbing flow provide a sensory refuge allowing prey to form larger groups, but that group sizes may be limited by level of disturbance to the flow.

  10. Re-estimating sample size in cluster randomized trials with active recruitment within clusters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, Sander; Moerbeek, Mirjam

    2014-01-01

    Often only a limited number of clusters can be obtained in cluster randomised trials, although many potential participants can be recruited within each cluster. Thus, active recruitment is feasible within the clusters. To obtain an efficient sample size in a cluster randomised trial, the cluster

  11. Estimating an Effect Size in One-Way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyn, H. S., Jr.; Ellis, S. M.

    2009-01-01

    When two or more univariate population means are compared, the proportion of variation in the dependent variable accounted for by population group membership is eta-squared. This effect size can be generalized by using multivariate measures of association, based on the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics, to establish whether…

  12. Improving Accuracy of Portion-Size Estimations through a Stimulus Equivalence Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausman, Nicole L.; Borrero, John C.; Fisher, Alyssa; Kahng, SungWoo

    2014-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity continues to increase in the United States (Gordon-Larsen, The, & Adair, 2010). Obesity can be attributed, in part, to overconsumption of energy-dense foods. Given that overeating plays a role in the development of obesity, interventions that teach individuals to identify and consume appropriate portion sizes are…

  13. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho, Pedro, E-mail: pedrocarv@coc.ufrj.br [Computational Modelling in Engineering and Geophysics Laboratory (LAMEMO), Department of Civil Engineering, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Pedro Calmon - Ilha do Fundão, 21941-596 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Marques, Rui Cunha, E-mail: pedro.c.carvalho@tecnico.ulisboa.pt [Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

  14. Improved Patient Size Estimates for Accurate Dose Calculations in Abdomen Computed Tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chang-Lae [Yonsei University, Wonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    The radiation dose of CT (computed tomography) is generally represented by the CTDI (CT dose index). CTDI, however, does not accurately predict the actual patient doses for different human body sizes because it relies on a cylinder-shaped head (diameter : 16 cm) and body (diameter : 32 cm) phantom. The purpose of this study was to eliminate the drawbacks of the conventional CTDI and to provide more accurate radiation dose information. Projection radiographs were obtained from water cylinder phantoms of various sizes, and the sizes of the water cylinder phantoms were calculated and verified using attenuation profiles. The effective diameter was also calculated using the attenuation of the abdominal projection radiographs of 10 patients. When the results of the attenuation-based method and the geometry-based method shown were compared with the results of the reconstructed-axial-CT-image-based method, the effective diameter of the attenuation-based method was found to be similar to the effective diameter of the reconstructed-axial-CT-image-based method, with a difference of less than 3.8%, but the geometry-based method showed a difference of less than 11.4%. This paper proposes a new method of accurately computing the radiation dose of CT based on the patient sizes. This method computes and provides the exact patient dose before the CT scan, and can therefore be effectively used for imaging and dose control.

  15. Sample sizes to control error estimates in determining soil bulk density in California forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youzhi Han; Jianwei Zhang; Kim G. Mattson; Weidong Zhang; Thomas A. Weber

    2016-01-01

    Characterizing forest soil properties with high variability is challenging, sometimes requiring large numbers of soil samples. Soil bulk density is a standard variable needed along with element concentrations to calculate nutrient pools. This study aimed to determine the optimal sample size, the number of observation (n), for predicting the soil bulk density with a...

  16. Functional size of vacuolar H+ pumps: Estimates from radiation inactivation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarafian, V.; Poole, R.J.

    1991-01-01

    The PPase and the ATPase from red beet (Beta vulgaris) vacuolar membranes were subjected to radiation inactivation by a 60 Co source in both the native tonoplast and detergent-solubilized states, in order to determine their target molecular sizes. Analysis of the residual phosphohydrolytic and proton transport activities, after exposure to varying doses of radiation, yielded exponential relationships between the activities and radiation doses. The deduced target molecular sizes for PPase activity in native and solubilized membranes were 125kD and 259kD respectively and 327kD for H + -transport. This suggests that the minimum number of subunits of 67kD for PPi hydrolysis is two in the native state and four after Triton X-100 solubilization. At least four subunits would be required for H + -translocation. Analysis of the ATPase inactivation patterns revealed target sizes of 384kD and 495kD for ATP hydrolysis in native and solubilized tonoplast respectively and 430kD for H + -transport. These results suggest that the minimum size for hydrolytic or transport functions is relatively constant for the ATPase

  17. How much data resides in a web collection: how to estimate size of a web collection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khelghati, Mohammadreza; Hiemstra, Djoerd; van Keulen, Maurice

    2013-01-01

    With increasing amount of data in deep web sources (hidden from general search engines behind web forms), accessing this data has gained more attention. In the algorithms applied for this purpose, it is the knowledge of a data source size that enables the algorithms to make accurate decisions in

  18. The use of 65Zn for estimating group size of brown hyaenas Hyaena ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MacDonald 1983), is influenced by the quality of resources within a territory (Mills 1982). Group size is, however, difficult to determine accurately using routine methods (i.e., direct counts and mark recapture techniques) owing to the shy, elusive and nocturnal habits of brown hyaenas and the physiognomic characteristics of ...

  19. Effect of sample moisture content on XRD-estimated cellulose crystallinity index and crystallite size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umesh P. Agarwal; Sally A. Ralph; Carlos Baez; Richard S. Reiner; Steve P. Verrill

    2017-01-01

    Although X-ray diffraction (XRD) has been the most widely used technique to investigate crystallinity index (CrI) and crystallite size (L200) of cellulose materials, there are not many studies that have taken into account the role of sample moisture on these measurements. The present investigation focuses on a variety of celluloses and cellulose...

  20. Using LiDAR derivatives to estimate sediment grain size on beaches in False Bay

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available of these parameters (beach slope, grain size, wave energy) can therefore theoretically be used as a proxy to predict the other factors. This information would be of particular interest for coastal protection and disaster risk management. Field assessments and surveys...

  1. Estimates of zooplankton abundance and size distribution with the Optical Plankton Counter (OPC)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wieland, Kai; Petersen, D.; Schnack, D.

    1997-01-01

    The capability of the Optical Plankton Count er (OPC) to examine the abundance and size distribution of zooplankton was tested in Storfjorden, Norway, in June 1993. Selected material obtained from net sampling was measured with a laboratory version of the OPC and compared with microscope analysis...

  2. A Comparison of Uniform DIF Effect Size Estimators under the MIMIC and Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Ying; Myers, Nicholas D.; Ahn, Soyeon; Penfield, Randall D.

    2013-01-01

    The Rasch model, a member of a larger group of models within item response theory, is widely used in empirical studies. Detection of uniform differential item functioning (DIF) within the Rasch model typically employs null hypothesis testing with a concomitant consideration of effect size (e.g., signed area [SA]). Parametric equivalence between…

  3. Estimating average tree crown size using high-resolution airborne data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brovkina, Olga; Latypov, I.; Cienciala, E.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 9, may 13 (2015), 096053-1-096053-13 ISSN 1931-3195 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk OC09001 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crown size * airborne data * spruce * granulometry Subject RIV: GK - Forestry Impact factor: 0.937, year: 2015

  4. Estimating sample size for a small-quadrat method of botanical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reports the results of a study conducted to determine an appropriate sample size for a small-quadrat method of botanical survey for application in the Mixed Bushveld of South Africa. Species density and grass density were measured using a small-quadrat method in eight plant communities in the Nylsvley Nature Reserve.

  5. Reliability and validity of food portion size estimation from images using manual flexible digital virtual meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The eButton takes frontal images at 4 second intervals throughout the day. A three-dimensional (3D) manually administered wire mesh procedure has been developed to quantify portion sizes from the two-dimensional (2D) images. This paper reports a test of the interrater reliability and validity of use...

  6. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

  7. Improving photometric redshift estimation using GPZ: size information, post processing, and improved photometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Zahra; Jarvis, Matt J.; Almosallam, Ibrahim A.; Roberts, Stephen J.

    2018-03-01

    The next generation of large-scale imaging surveys (such as those conducted with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and Euclid) will require accurate photometric redshifts in order to optimally extract cosmological information. Gaussian Process for photometric redshift estimation (GPZ) is a promising new method that has been proven to provide efficient, accurate photometric redshift estimations with reliable variance predictions. In this paper, we investigate a number of methods for improving the photometric redshift estimations obtained using GPZ (but which are also applicable to others). We use spectroscopy from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly Data Release 2 with a limiting magnitude of r Program Data Release 1 and find that it produces significant improvements in accuracy, similar to the effect of including additional features.

  8. Estimation of (co)variances for genomic regions of flexible sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars P; Janss, Luc; Madsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    was used. There was a clear difference in the region-wise patterns of genomic correlation among combinations of traits, with distinctive peaks indicating the presence of pleiotropic QTL. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that it is possible to estimate, genome-wide and region-wise genomic (co)variances......BACKGROUND: Multi-trait genomic models in a Bayesian context can be used to estimate genomic (co)variances, either for a complete genome or for genomic regions (e.g. per chromosome) for the purpose of multi-trait genomic selection or to gain further insight into the genomic architecture of related...... with a common prior distribution for the marker allele substitution effects and estimation of the hyperparameters in this prior distribution from the progeny means data. From the Markov chain Monte Carlo samples of the allele substitution effects, genomic (co)variances were calculated on a whole-genome level...

  9. Trophic feasibility of reintroducing anadromous salmonids in three reservoirs on the north fork Lewis River, Washington: Prey supply and consumption demand of resident fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorel, Mark H.; Hansen, Adam G.; Connelly, Kristin A.; Beauchamp, David A.

    2016-01-01

    The reintroduction of anadromous salmonids in reservoirs is being proposed with increasing frequency, requiring baseline studies to evaluate feasibility and estimate the capacity of reservoir food webs to support reintroduced populations. Using three reservoirs on the north fork Lewis River as a case study, we demonstrate a method to determine juvenile salmonid smolt rearing capacities for lakes and reservoirs. To determine if the Lewis River reservoirs can support reintroduced populations of juvenile stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, we evaluated the monthly production of daphniaDaphnia spp. (the primary zooplankton consumed by resident salmonids in the system) and used bioenergetics to model the consumption demand of resident fishes in each reservoir. To estimate the surplus of Daphnia prey available for reintroduced salmonids, we assumed a maximum sustainable exploitation rate and accounted for the consumption demand of resident fishes. The number of smolts that could have been supported was estimated by dividing any surplus Daphnia production by the simulated consumption demand of an individual Chinook Salmon fry rearing in the reservoir to successful smolt size. In all three reservoirs, densities of Daphnia were highest in the epilimnion, but warm epilimnetic temperatures and the vertical distribution of planktivores suggested that access to abundant epilimnetic prey was limited. By comparing accessible prey supply and demand on a monthly basis, we were able to identify potential prey supply bottlenecks that could limit smolt production and growth. These results demonstrate that a bioenergetics approach can be a valuable method of examining constraints on lake and reservoir rearing capacity, such as thermal structure and temporal food supply. This method enables numerical estimation of rearing capacity, which is a useful metric for managers evaluating the feasibility of reintroducing Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in lentic systems.

  10. Cheetahs, Acinonyx jubatus, balance turn capacity with pace when chasing prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John W.; Mills, Michael G. L.; Wilson, Rory P.; Peters, Gerrit; Mills, Margaret E. J.; Speakman, John R.; Durant, Sarah M.; Bennett, Nigel C.; Marks, Nikki J.; Scantlebury, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Predator–prey interactions are fundamental in the evolution and structure of ecological communities. Our understanding, however, of the strategies used in pursuit and evasion remains limited. Here, we report on the hunting dynamics of the world's fastest land animal, the cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus. Using miniaturized data loggers, we recorded fine-scale movement, speed and acceleration of free-ranging cheetahs to measure how hunting dynamics relate to chasing different sized prey. Cheetahs attained hunting speeds of up to 18.94 m s−1 and accelerated up to 7.5 m s−2 with greatest angular velocities achieved during the terminal phase of the hunt. The interplay between forward and lateral acceleration during chases showed that the total forces involved in speed changes and turning were approximately constant over time but varied with prey type. Thus, rather than a simple maximum speed chase, cheetahs first accelerate to decrease the distance to their prey, before reducing speed 5–8 s from the end of the hunt, so as to facilitate rapid turns to match prey escape tactics, varying the precise strategy according to prey species. Predator and prey thus pit a fine balance of speed against manoeuvring capability in a race for survival. PMID:24004493

  11. Musculoskeletal anatomy of the Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx (Carnivora: Felidae) forelimb: Adaptations to capture large prey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viranta, Suvi; Lommi, Hanna; Holmala, Katja; Laakkonen, Juha

    2016-06-01

    Mammalian carnivores adhere to two different feeding strategies relative to their body masses. Large carnivores prey on animals that are the same size or larger than themselves, whereas small carnivores prey on smaller vertebrates and invertebrates. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) falls in between these two categories. Lynx descend from larger forms that were probably large prey specialists, but during the Pleistocene became predators of small prey. The modern Eurasian lynx may be an evolutionary reversal toward specializing in large prey again. We hypothesized that the musculoskeletal anatomy of lynx should show traits for catching large prey. To test our hypothesis, we dissected the forelimb muscles of six Eurasian lynx individuals and compared our findings to results published for other felids. We measured the bones and compared their dimensions to the published material. Our material displayed a well-developed pectoral girdle musculature with some uniquely extensive muscle attachments. The upper arm musculature resembled that of the pantherine felids and probably the extinct sabertooths, and also the muscles responsible for supination and pronation were similar to those in large cats. The muscles controlling the pollex were well-developed. However, skeletal indices were similar to those of small prey predators. Our findings show that lynx possess the topographic pattern of muscle origin and insertion like in large felids. J. Morphol. 277:753-765, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Cheetahs, Acinonyx jubatus, balance turn capacity with pace when chasing prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John W; Mills, Michael G L; Wilson, Rory P; Peters, Gerrit; Mills, Margaret E J; Speakman, John R; Durant, Sarah M; Bennett, Nigel C; Marks, Nikki J; Scantlebury, Michael

    2013-10-23

    Predator-prey interactions are fundamental in the evolution and structure of ecological communities. Our understanding, however, of the strategies used in pursuit and evasion remains limited. Here, we report on the hunting dynamics of the world's fastest land animal, the cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus. Using miniaturized data loggers, we recorded fine-scale movement, speed and acceleration of free-ranging cheetahs to measure how hunting dynamics relate to chasing different sized prey. Cheetahs attained hunting speeds of up to 18.94 m s(-1) and accelerated up to 7.5 m s(-2) with greatest angular velocities achieved during the terminal phase of the hunt. The interplay between forward and lateral acceleration during chases showed that the total forces involved in speed changes and turning were approximately constant over time but varied with prey type. Thus, rather than a simple maximum speed chase, cheetahs first accelerate to decrease the distance to their prey, before reducing speed 5-8 s from the end of the hunt, so as to facilitate rapid turns to match prey escape tactics, varying the precise strategy according to prey species. Predator and prey thus pit a fine balance of speed against manoeuvring capability in a race for survival.

  13. An objective approach to determining the weight ranges of prey preferred by and accessible to the five large African carnivores.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayley S Clements

    Full Text Available Broad-scale models describing predator prey preferences serve as useful departure points for understanding predator-prey interactions at finer scales. Previous analyses used a subjective approach to identify prey weight preferences of the five large African carnivores, hence their accuracy is questionable. This study uses a segmented model of prey weight versus prey preference to objectively quantify the prey weight preferences of the five large African carnivores. Based on simulations of known predator prey preference, for prey species sample sizes above 32 the segmented model approach detects up to four known changes in prey weight preference (represented by model break-points with high rates of detection (75% to 100% of simulations, depending on number of break-points and accuracy (within 1.3±4.0 to 2.7±4.4 of known break-point. When applied to the five large African carnivores, using carnivore diet information from across Africa, the model detected weight ranges of prey that are preferred, killed relative to their abundance, and avoided by each carnivore. Prey in the weight ranges preferred and killed relative to their abundance are together termed "accessible prey". Accessible prey weight ranges were found to be 14-135 kg for cheetah Acinonyx jubatus, 1-45 kg for leopard Panthera pardus, 32-632 kg for lion Panthera leo, 15-1600 kg for spotted hyaena Crocuta crocuta and 10-289 kg for wild dog Lycaon pictus. An assessment of carnivore diets throughout Africa found these accessible prey weight ranges include 88±2% (cheetah, 82±3% (leopard, 81±2% (lion, 97±2% (spotted hyaena and 96±2% (wild dog of kills. These descriptions of prey weight preferences therefore contribute to our understanding of the diet spectrum of the five large African carnivores. Where datasets meet the minimum sample size requirements, the segmented model approach provides a means of determining, and comparing, the prey weight range preferences of any carnivore

  14. An objective approach to determining the weight ranges of prey preferred by and accessible to the five large African carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, Hayley S; Tambling, Craig J; Hayward, Matt W; Kerley, Graham I H

    2014-01-01

    Broad-scale models describing predator prey preferences serve as useful departure points for understanding predator-prey interactions at finer scales. Previous analyses used a subjective approach to identify prey weight preferences of the five large African carnivores, hence their accuracy is questionable. This study uses a segmented model of prey weight versus prey preference to objectively quantify the prey weight preferences of the five large African carnivores. Based on simulations of known predator prey preference, for prey species sample sizes above 32 the segmented model approach detects up to four known changes in prey weight preference (represented by model break-points) with high rates of detection (75% to 100% of simulations, depending on number of break-points) and accuracy (within 1.3±4.0 to 2.7±4.4 of known break-point). When applied to the five large African carnivores, using carnivore diet information from across Africa, the model detected weight ranges of prey that are preferred, killed relative to their abundance, and avoided by each carnivore. Prey in the weight ranges preferred and killed relative to their abundance are together termed "accessible prey". Accessible prey weight ranges were found to be 14-135 kg for cheetah Acinonyx jubatus, 1-45 kg for leopard Panthera pardus, 32-632 kg for lion Panthera leo, 15-1600 kg for spotted hyaena Crocuta crocuta and 10-289 kg for wild dog Lycaon pictus. An assessment of carnivore diets throughout Africa found these accessible prey weight ranges include 88±2% (cheetah), 82±3% (leopard), 81±2% (lion), 97±2% (spotted hyaena) and 96±2% (wild dog) of kills. These descriptions of prey weight preferences therefore contribute to our understanding of the diet spectrum of the five large African carnivores. Where datasets meet the minimum sample size requirements, the segmented model approach provides a means of determining, and comparing, the prey weight range preferences of any carnivore species.

  15. Relating marten scat contents to prey consumed

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Zielinski

    1986-01-01

    A European ferret, Mustela putorius furo, was fed typical marten food items to discover the relationship between prey weight and number of scats produced per unit weight of prey. A correction factor was derived that was used in the analysis of pine marten, Martes americana, scats to produce a method capable of comparing foods on a...

  16. Preoperative estimation of tibial nail length--because size does matter.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Galbraith, J G

    2012-11-01

    Selecting the correct tibial nail length is essential for satisfactory outcomes. Nails that are inserted and are found to be of inappropriate length should be removed. Accurate preoperative nail estimation has the potential to reduce intra-operative errors, operative time and radiation exposure.

  17. Estimating the Size and Cost of the STD Prevention Services Safety Net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gift, Thomas L; Haderxhanaj, Laura T; Torrone, Elizabeth A; Behl, Ajay S; Romaguera, Raul A; Leichliter, Jami S

    2015-01-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is expected to reduce the number of uninsured people in the United States during the next eight years, but more than 10% are expected to remain uninsured. Uninsured people are one of the main populations using publicly funded safety net sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention services. Estimating the proportion of the uninsured population expected to need STD services could help identify the potential demand for safety net STD services and improve program planning. In 2013, an estimated 8.27 million people met the criteria for being in need of STD services. In 2023, 4.70 million uninsured people are expected to meet the criteria for being in need of STD services. As an example, the cost in 2014 U.S. dollars of providing chlamydia screening to these people was an estimated $271.1 million in 2013 and is estimated to be $153.8 million in 2023. A substantial need will continue to exist for safety net STD prevention services in coming years.

  18. Age estimation, growth rate and size at sexual maturity of tigerfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A total of 206 tigerfish Hydrocynus vittatus, collected by angling in August 2005, 2006 and 2007, was assessed for sexual maturity and relative ages were estimated from 135 of these, using scales and whole and sectioned otoliths. Sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate method for ageing H. vittatus of up to 20 years ...

  19. Putting prey and predator into the CO2 equation--qualitative and quantitative effects of ocean acidification on predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Maud C O; McCormick, Mark I; Munday, Philip L; Meekan, Mark G; Dixson, Danielle L; Lonnstedt, Öona; Chivers, Douglas P

    2011-11-01

    Little is known about the impact of ocean acidification on predator-prey dynamics. Herein, we examined the effect of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) on both prey and predator by letting one predatory reef fish interact for 24 h with eight small or large juvenile damselfishes from four congeneric species. Both prey and predator were exposed to control or elevated levels of CO(2). Mortality rate and predator selectivity were compared across CO(2) treatments, prey size and species. Small juveniles of all species sustained greater mortality at high CO(2) levels, while large recruits were not affected. For large prey, the pattern of prey selectivity by predators was reversed under elevated CO(2). Our results demonstrate both quantitative and qualitative consumptive effects of CO(2) on small and larger damselfish recruits respectively, resulting from CO(2)-induced behavioural changes likely mediated by impaired neurological function. This study highlights the complexity of predicting the effects of climate change on coral reef ecosystems. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Sved

    Full Text Available There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-12, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1 for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  1. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  2. Limits to the reliability of size-based fishing status estimation for data-poor stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    For stocks which are considered “data-poor” no knowledge exist about growth, mortality or recruitment. The only available information is from catches. Here we examine the ability to assess the level of exploitation of a data-poor stock based only on information of the size of individuals in catches....... The model is a formulation of the classic Beverton–Holt theory in terms of size where stock parameters describing growth, natural mortality, recruitment, etc. are determined from life-history invariants. A simulation study was used to compare the reliability of assessments performed under different...... to a considerable improvement in the assessment. Overall, the simulation study demonstrates that it may be possible to classify a data-poor stock as undergoing over- or under-fishing, while the exact status, i.e., how much the fishing mortality is above or below Fmsy, can only be assessed with a substantial...

  3. Assessing terpene content variability of whitebark pine in order to estimate representative sample size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Milena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In studies of population variability, particular attention has to be paid to the selection of a representative sample. The aim of this study was to assess the size of the new representative sample on the basis of the variability of chemical content of the initial sample on the example of a whitebark pine population. Statistical analysis included the content of 19 characteristics (terpene hydrocarbons and their derivates of the initial sample of 10 elements (trees. It was determined that the new sample should contain 20 trees so that the mean value calculated from it represents a basic set with a probability higher than 95 %. Determination of the lower limit of the representative sample size that guarantees a satisfactory reliability of generalization proved to be very important in order to achieve cost efficiency of the research. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. OI-173011, br. TR-37002 i br. III-43007

  4. Preliminary Estimation of Local Bypass Flow Gap Sizes for a Prismatic VHTR Core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Hwan; Jo, Chang Keun; Lee, Won Jae

    2009-01-01

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) has been selected for the Nuclear Hydrogen Development and Demonstration (NHDD) project. In the VHTR design, core bypass flow has been one of key issues for core thermal margins and target temperature of the core outlet. The core bypass flow in the prismatic VHTR varies with the core life due to the irradiation shrinkage/ swelling and thermal expansion of the graphite blocks, which could be a significant proportion of the total core flow. Thus, accurate prediction of the bypass flow is of major importance in assuring the core thermal margin. To predict the bypass flow, first of all, local gap sizes between graphite blocks in the core should be determined. The objectives of this work are to develop a methodology for determining the gap sizes and to perform a preliminary evaluation for a reference reactor

  5. Benthic prey fish assessment, Lake Ontario 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidel, Brian C.; Walsh, Maureen; Connerton, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    abundance and weight indices increased slightly as compared to 2012. The number index value of 16.6 was 30% of the maximum number observed in 2008 when the number index was 95.2. Round Goby density estimates from the 2013 fall benthic prey fish survey were 33 times greater than fall Slimy Sculpin density, indicating Round Goby are now the dominant Lake Ontario benthic prey fish.

  6. How do we estimate the relative size of human figures when seen on a photography

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šimeček, Michal; Šikl, Radovan

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 40, Suppl. (2011), s. 119-119 ISSN 0301-0066. [European Conference on Visual Perception /34./. 28.08.2011-01.09.2011, Toulouse] R&D Projects: GA ČR GPP407/10/P566 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : visual space perception * size constancy * subjective horizon Subject RIV: AN - Psychology http://www. perception web.com/abstract.cgi?id=v110465

  7. Recursive estimation of the claim rates and sizes in an insurance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakhdar Aggoun

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available It is a common fact that for most classes of general insurance, many possible sources of heterogeneity of risk exist. Premium rates based on information from a heterogeneous portfolio might be quite inadequate. One way of reducing this danger is by grouping policies according to the different levels of the various risk factors involved. Using measure change techniques, we derive recursive filters and predictors for the claim rates and claim sizes for the different groups.

  8. Precise estimation of HPHT nanodiamond size distribution based on transmission electron microscopy image analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehoř, Ivan; Cígler, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 46, Jun (2014), s. 21-24 ISSN 0925-9635 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP108/12/0640; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11027 Grant - others:OPPK(CZ) CZ.2.16/3.1.00/24016 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : TEM * nanoparticles * nanodiamonds * size distribution * high-pressure high-temperature * image analysis Subject RIV: CC - Organic Chemistry Impact factor: 1.919, year: 2014

  9. Kinematic vorticity number – a tool for estimating vortex sizes and circulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Schielicke

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The influence of extratropical vortices on a global scale is mainly characterised by their size and by the magnitude of their circulation. However, the determination of these properties is still a great challenge since a vortex has no clear delimitations but is part of the flow field itself. In this work, we introduce a kinematic vortex size determination method based on the kinematic vorticity number Wk to atmospheric flows. Wk relates the local rate-of-rotation to the local rate-of-deformation at every point in the field and a vortex core is identified as a simply connected region where the rotation prevails over the deformation. Additionally, considering the sign of vorticity in the extended Wk-method allows to identify highs and lows in different vertical layers of the atmosphere and to study vertical as well as horizontal vortex interactions. We will test the Wk-method in different idealised -D (superposition of two lows/low and jet and real -D flow situations (winter storm affecting Europe and compare the results with traditional methods based on the pressure and the vorticity fields. In comparison to these traditional methods, the Wk-method is able to extract vortex core sizes even in shear-dominated regions that occur frequently in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, statistics of the size and circulation distributions of cyclones will be given. Since the Wk-method identifies vortex cores, the identified radii are subsynoptic with a broad peak around 300–500 km at the 1000 hPa level. However, the total circulating area is not only restricted to the core. In general, circulations are in the order of 107 m2/s with only a few cyclones in the order of 108 m2/s.

  10. Accuracy of repeated kidney size estimation by ultrasonography and urography in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hederstroem, E.; Forsberg, L.

    1985-01-01

    The accuracy of repeated sonographic and urographic kidney length measurements in kidney size evaluation was investigated in 80 children 0 to 14 years of age, mean age 4.5 years. At sonography 250 kidney lengths were compared. A difference of 0 to 1.0 cm in repeated length measurement was considered to be good accuracy and 94 per cent of right and 96 per cent of left kidney length were found within this interval-a better result than for urography with 76 per cent of repeated right kidney and 79 per cent of kidney lengths within the same interval (94 lengths). Both methods display a variation of kidney lengths which may lead to under- and overestimation of kidney size and growth. The investigation thus indicates good accuracy for repeated sonographic kidney size assessment which should be repeated often enough to estabilish a growth chart displaying the trend rather than rely too much on single measurements. Sonography can be highly recommended as a convenient and harmless alternative to urography. (orig.)

  11. [Estimates of the size of inhibitory areas in crowding effects in periphery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarko, V M; Danilova, M V; Solnushkin, S D; Chikhman, V N

    2014-01-01

    In psychophysical experiments we studied how surround influences recognition of test objects. The tests were low-contrast Landolt rings of the size 1.1, 1.5 and 2.3 deg. Their centers were located at 13.2 deg from the fixation point. The additional objects were similar Landolt rings or rings without gaps. The distance between the centers of the test and the additional objects varied from 2.2 to 13.2 deg. Inone experiment, the task of the observer was to identify both the test objects and the surrounding objects. In the second experiment the stimulus layout was the same, but'identification of only the test stimulus was required. In both experiments, deterioration of performance was found at all distances between the test objects and the surround, but the deterioration was more significant when the observer carried out the dual task. The data showed that the size of the inhibitory areas in our case does not comply with the Bouma low which states that the size of the interaction areas are equal to half of the eccentricity where the test is presented. Further deterioration of performance in the dual task reveals the contribution of attention into peripheral crowding effects.

  12. The Importance of Particle Size in Estimating Downwind Contamination from an RDD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, T.

    2007-01-01

    There is general agreement that realistic quantities of radiological material released from a radiological dispersal device (RDD) will not travel more than hundred meters at toxic levels. Of greater concern in the case of such an incident is the size of the area contaminated with radiological particles. Remediation of contaminated areas will require either removal of the deposited articles or disposal of the contaminated materials. Contours of expected contaminated areas have been presented which extend more than 10 miles downwind of the release location. It would be impossible to remediate such a large area, so the likely response will be to permanently seal most of it off from further use. Not only are these radiation contours below levels of concern, the particle size assumed is unreasonably low, especially when the density of radioactive materials is considered. Using of appropriate RDD characterization and range of particle size, this presentation will show that expected contamination areas should be small enough to make remediation feasible.(author)

  13. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-12-19

    In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different

  14. Estimation of Body Weight from Body Size Measurements and Body Condition Scores in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Carsten; Kristensen, T.

    1997-01-01

    , and body condition score were consistently associated with BW. The coefficients of multiple determination varied from 80 to 89%. The number of significant terms and the parameter estimates of the models differed markedly among groups of cows. Apparently, these differences were due to breed and feeding...... regimen. Results from this study indicate that a reliable model for estimating BW of very different dairy cows maintained in a wide range of environments can be developed using body condition score, demographic information, and measurements of hip height and hip width. However, for management purposes......The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of hip height and width, body condition score, and relevant demographic information to predict body weight (BW) of dairy cows. Seven regression models were developed from data from 972 observations of 554 cows. Parity, hip height, hip width...

  15. Non-working nurses in Japan: estimated size and its age-cohort characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Yoshifumi; Miyazaki, Satoru

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to forecast the total number of non-working nursing staff in Japan both overall and in terms of separate age groups for assistant nurses and fully qualified nurses. This also examines policy implications of those forecasts. Although the existence of around 550,000 of non-working nursing staff has been announced, the actual number of non-working nurses is not so clear that we might make errors in making policy to meet nurse workforce demand and supply in Japan. Estimations by integrating various data on the quantitative characteristics of non-working nursing staff were carried out. Considering the length and the type of education or training in referred four nursing positions; registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses and midwives, we first estimated the number of students who completed a full course. And then multiplying by the ratio for gender and age classifications at the time of entry into courses, the number of those who obtained licenses was estimated. The number of non-working nurses was estimated at 100,000 higher than those in 2005 by government. Looking at age group, it is also possible to see a strong reflection of an employment pattern that follows the life cycle of female workers. Further analysis of life cycle effects and cohort effects proved the effect of life cycles even when subtracting the differences between the working behaviours of different generations. Our findings strongly suggest the need to provide an urgent policy that workplace conditions can be created in which a balance between work and family is achievable. Moreover, to empower clinical activity, we also believe there is an urgent need to reexamine the overall career vision for assistant nurses including in terms of compensation. Relevance to clinical practice. Our findings strongly suggests that consideration for work-life balance of nursing staff; particularly, female staff is all the more important to provide a stable quality care.

  16. Prey and plastic ingestion of Pacific Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis rogersii) from Monterey Bay, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly-Greenan, Erica L; Harvey, James T; Nevins, Hannahrose M; Hester, Michelle M; Walker, William A

    2014-08-15

    Marine plastic pollution affects seabirds, including Pacific Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis rodgersii), that feed at the surface and mistake plastic for prey or incidentally ingest it. Direct and indirect health issues can result, including satiety and possibly leading to inefficient foraging. Our objective was to examine fulmar body condition, identify cephalopod diet to species, enumerate and weigh ingested plastic, and determine if prey number and size were correlated with ingested plastics in beach-cast fulmars wintering in Monterey Bay California (2003, n=178: 2007, n=185). Fulmars consumed mostly Gonatus pyros, G. onyx, and G. californiensis of similar size for both years. We found a significant negative correlation between pectoral muscle index and average size of cephalopod beaks per stomach; a significant increase in plastic categories between 2003 and 2007; and no significant correlation between number and mass of plastic compared with number and size of prey for either year. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimating the size of the homeless adolescent population across seven cities in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay Stark

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Government of Cambodia has committed to supporting family care for vulnerable children, including homeless populations. Collecting baseline data on the numbers and characteristics of homeless adolescents was prioritized to illuminate the scope of the issue, mobilize resources and direct the response. Methods Administrative zones across seven cities were purposively selected to cover the main urban areas known to have homeless populations in Cambodia. A complete enumeration of homeless individuals between the ages of 13 and 17 was attempted in the selected areas. In addition, a second independent count was conducted to enable a statistical estimation of completeness based on overlap across counts. This technique is known as capture-recapture. Adolescents were also interviewed about their schooling, health and other circumstances. Results After adjustment by the capture-recapture corrective multipliers (range: 3.53 -27.08, the study yielded an estimate of 2,697 13–17 year old homeless adolescents across all seven cities. The total number of homeless boys counted was significantly greater than homeless girls, especially in older ages. Conclusions To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time capture-recapture methods have been applied to a homeless estimation of this scale in a resource-limited setting. Findings suggest the number of homeless adolescents in Cambodia is much greater than one would expect if relying on single count data alone and that this population faces many hardships.

  18. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  19. Illicit Drug Users in the Tanzanian Hinterland: Population Size Estimation Through Key Informant-Driven Hot Spot Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndayongeje, Joel; Msami, Amani; Laurent, Yovin Ivo; Mwankemwa, Syangu; Makumbuli, Moza; Ngonyani, Alois M; Tiberio, Jenny; Welty, Susie; Said, Christen; Morris, Meghan D; McFarland, Willi

    2018-02-12

    We mapped hot spots and estimated the numbers of people who use drugs (PWUD) and who inject drugs (PWID) in 12 regions of Tanzania. Primary (ie, current and past PWUD) and secondary (eg, police, service providers) key informants identified potential hot spots, which we visited to verify and count the number of PWUD and PWID present. Adjustments to counts and extrapolation to regional estimates were done by local experts through iterative rounds of discussion. Drug use, specifically cocaine and heroin, occurred in all regions. Tanga had the largest numbers of PWUD and PWID (5190 and 540, respectively), followed by Mwanza (3300 and 300, respectively). Findings highlight the need to strengthen awareness of drug use and develop prevention and harm reduction programs with broader reach in Tanzania. This exercise provides a foundation for understanding the extent and locations of drug use, a baseline for future size estimations, and a sampling frame for future research.

  20. Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

    2012-11-01

    Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are

  1. Remote estimation of crown size and tree density in snowy areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishi, R.; Ito, A.; Kamada, K.; Fukita, T.; Lahrita, L.; Kawase, Y.; Murahashi, K.; Kawamata, H.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Precise estimation of tree density in the forest leads us to understand the amount of carbon dioxide fixed by plants. Aerial photographs have been used to measure the number of trees. Campaign using aircraft, however, is expensive ( $50,000/1 campaign flight) and the research area is limited in drone. In addition, previous studies estimating the density of trees from aerial photographs have been performed in the summer, so there was a gap of 15% in the estimation due to the overlapping of the leaves. Here, we have proposed a method to accurately estimate the number of forest trees from the satellite images of snow-covered deciduous forest area, using the ratio of branches to snow. The advantages of our method are as follows; 1) snow area could be excluded easily due to the high reflectance, 2) tree branches are small overlapping compared to leaves. Although our method can use only in the snowfall region, the area covered with snow in the world becomes more than 12,800,000 km2. Our proposition should play an important role in discussing global warming. As a test area, we have chosen the forest near Mt. Amano in Iwate prefecture in Japan. First, we made a new index of (Band1-Band5)/(Band1+Band5), which will be suitable to distinguish between the snow and the tree trunk using the corresponding spectral reflection data. Next, the index values of changing the ratio in 1% increments were listed. From the satellite image analysis at 4 points, the ratio of snow to tree trunk showed the following values, I:61%, II:65%, III:66% and IV:65%. To confirm the estimation, we used the aerial photograph from Google earth; the rate was I:42.05%, II:48.89%, III:50.64%, IV:49.05%, respectively. There is a correlation between the numerical values of both, but there are differences. We will discuss in detail at this point, focusing on the effect of shadows.

  2. Modelling landscape-level numerical responses of predators to prey: the case of cats and rabbits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennyffer Cruz

    Full Text Available Predator-prey systems can extend over large geographical areas but empirical modelling of predator-prey dynamics has been largely limited to localised scales. This is due partly to difficulties in estimating predator and prey abundances over large areas. Collection of data at suitably large scales has been a major problem in previous studies of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus and their predators. This applies in Western Europe, where conserving rabbits and predators such as Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus is important, and in other parts of the world where rabbits are an invasive species supporting populations of introduced, and sometimes native, predators. In pastoral regions of New Zealand, rabbits are the primary prey of feral cats (Felis catus that threaten native fauna. We estimate the seasonal numerical response of cats to fluctuations in rabbit numbers in grassland-shrubland habitat across the Otago and Mackenzie regions of the South Island of New Zealand. We use spotlight counts over 1645 km of transects to estimate rabbit and cat abundances with a novel modelling approach that accounts simultaneously for environmental stochasticity, density dependence and varying detection probability. Our model suggests that cat abundance is related consistently to rabbit abundance in spring and summer, possibly through increased rabbit numbers improving the fecundity and juvenile survival of cats. Maintaining rabbits at low abundance should therefore suppress cat numbers, relieving predation pressure on native prey. Our approach provided estimates of the abundance of cats and rabbits over a large geographical area. This was made possible by repeated sampling within each season, which allows estimation of detection probabilities. A similar approach could be applied to predator-prey systems elsewhere, and could be adapted to any method of direct observation in which there is no double-counting of individuals. Reliable estimates of numerical

  3. Estimation of particle size distribution in Athabasca oil sands by indirect neutron activation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutte, R.; Thompson, G.R.; Donkor, K.K. [New Caledonia College, Prince George, BC (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry; Duke, M.J.M. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). SLOWPOKE Nuclear Reactor Facility; Cowles, R. [Syncrude Canada, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Li, X.P.; Kratochvil, B. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry

    1999-10-01

    Knowledge concerning the particle size distribution (PSD) of oil sands is necessary for optimal extraction of bitumen from the sand, and it indicates ore quality, gives a measure of process performance during bitumen extraction, and yields information useful for tailings management. Oil sands with mainly coarse particulates are usually bitumen rich and easy to process in the conventional hot water extraction process. These ores do not require the addition of sodium hydroxide as a process aid, and tailings volumes are minimal in contrast to high fines oil sands. Compared to the methods currently in use for determining the PSD in the oil sand industry, a method is described that is rapid, simple to carry out, and does not involve the use of organic solvents with attendant disposal problems. The principle behind the method is the development of a set of correlations by applying regression analysis to a large set of PSD and elemental analysis data. Predicted PSDs compare favorably with results obtained by existing methods. Each of the three PSD methods currently in use could be simulated by the INAA method. The INAA-based model that predicts hydrometer equivalent data was only applicable above certain lower limits for the amount of the fine size fractions present because of the limited sensitivity of the hydrometer method for PSD determination of fine fractions. For all six particle sizes studied, the INAA model had lower overall uncertainty than the corresponding Microtrac and Coulter instrument methods; the instrument repeatability of the INAA fell between those of Microtrac and Coulter. For Athabasca oil sands, the INAA-based method for PSD determination at and below 44 microm afforded results comparable to current Microtrac and Coulter methods. 13 refs., 9 tabs., 2 figs.

  4. Modulation of shark prey capture kinematics in response to sensory deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, Jayne M; Atema, Jelle; Hueter, Robert E; Motta, Philip J

    2017-02-01

    The ability of predators to modulate prey capture in response to the size, location, and behavior of prey is critical to successful feeding on a variety of prey types. Modulating in response to changes in sensory information may be critical to successful foraging in a variety of environments. Three shark species with different feeding morphologies and behaviors were filmed using high-speed videography while capturing live prey: the ram-feeding blacktip shark, the ram-biting bonnethead, and the suction-feeding nurse shark. Sharks were examined intact and after sensory information was blocked (olfaction, vision, mechanoreception, and electroreception, alone and in combination), to elucidate the contribution of the senses to the kinematics of prey capture. In response to sensory deprivation, the blacktip shark demonstrated the greatest amount of modulation, followed by the nurse shark. In the absence of olfaction, blacktip sharks open the jaws slowly, suggestive of less motivation. Without lateral line cues, blacktip sharks capture prey from greater horizontal angles using increased ram. When visual cues are absent, blacktip sharks elevate the head earlier and to a greater degree, allowing them to overcome imprecise position of the prey relative to the mouth, and capture prey using decreased ram, while suction remains unchanged. When visual cues are absent, nurse sharks open the mouth wider, extend the labial cartilages further, and increase suction while simultaneously decreasing ram. Unlike some bony fish, neither species switches feeding modalities (i.e. from ram to suction or vice versa). Bonnetheads failed to open the mouth when electrosensory cues were blocked, but otherwise little to no modulation was found in this species. These results suggest that prey capture may be less plastic in elasmobranchs than in bony fishes, possibly due to anatomical differences, and that the ability to modulate feeding kinematics in response to available sensory information varies

  5. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wetterslev, Jørn; Thorlund, Kristian; Brok, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    an intervention effect suggested by trials with low-risk of bias. METHODS: Information size calculations need to consider the total model variance in a meta-analysis to control type I and type II errors. Here, we derive an adjusting factor for the required information size under any random-effects model meta......-analysis. RESULTS: We devise a measure of diversity (D2) in a meta-analysis, which is the relative variance reduction when the meta-analysis model is changed from a random-effects into a fixed-effect model. D2 is the percentage that the between-trial variability constitutes of the sum of the between...... and interpreted using several simulations and clinical examples. In addition we show mathematically that diversity is equal to or greater than inconsistency, that is D2 >or= I2, for all meta-analyses. CONCLUSION: We conclude that D2 seems a better alternative than I2 to consider model variation in any random...

  7. Exact, time-independent estimation of clone size distributions in normal and mutated cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, A; Jones, P H; Greenman, C D

    2014-10-06

    Biological tools such as genetic lineage tracing, three-dimensional confocal microscopy and next-generation DNA sequencing are providing new ways to quantify the distribution of clones of normal and mutated cells. Understanding population-wide clone size distributions in vivo is complicated by multiple cell types within observed tissues, and overlapping birth and death processes. This has led to the increased need for mathematically informed models to understand their biological significance. Standard approaches usually require knowledge of clonal age. We show that modelling on clone size independent of time is an alternative method that offers certain analytical advantages; it can help parametrize these models, and obtain distributions for counts of mutated or proliferating cells, for example. When applied to a general birth-death process common in epithelial progenitors, this takes the form of a gambler's ruin problem, the solution of which relates to counting Motzkin lattice paths. Applying this approach to mutational processes, alternative, exact, formulations of classic Luria-Delbrück-type problems emerge. This approach can be extended beyond neutral models of mutant clonal evolution. Applications of these approaches are twofold. First, we resolve the probability of progenitor cells generating proliferating or differentiating progeny in clonal lineage tracing experiments in vivo or cell culture assays where clone age is not known. Second, we model mutation frequency distributions that deep sequencing of subclonal samples produce.

  8. Depictive and metric body size estimation in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölbert, Simone Claire; Klein, Lukas; Thaler, Anne; Mohler, Betty J; Brozzo, Chiara; Martus, Peter; Karnath, Hans-Otto; Zipfel, Stephan; Giel, Katrin Elisabeth

    2017-11-01

    A distorted representation of one's own body is a diagnostic criterion and core psychopathology of both anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Despite recent technical advances in research, it is still unknown whether this body image disturbance is characterized by body dissatisfaction and a low ideal weight and/or includes a distorted perception or processing of body size. In this article, we provide an update and meta-analysis of 42 articles summarizing measures and results for body size estimation (BSE) from 926 individuals with AN, 536 individuals with BN and 1920 controls. We replicate findings that individuals with AN and BN overestimate their body size as compared to controls (ES=0.63). Our meta-regression shows that metric methods (BSE by direct or indirect spatial measures) yield larger effect sizes than depictive methods (BSE by evaluating distorted pictures), and that effect sizes are larger for patients with BN than for patients with AN. To interpret these results, we suggest a revised theoretical framework for BSE that accounts for differences between depictive and metric BSE methods regarding the underlying body representations (conceptual vs. perceptual, implicit vs. explicit). We also discuss clinical implications and argue for the importance of multimethod approaches to investigate body image disturbance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Koh Jun; Soldan, Kate; Jit, Mark; Dunbar, J Kevin; Woodhall, Sarah C

    2017-02-01

    Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Inferring predator behavior from attack rates on prey-replicas that differ in conspicuousness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoel E Stuart

    Full Text Available Behavioral ecologists and evolutionary biologists have long studied how predators respond to prey items novel in color and pattern. Because a predatory response is influenced by both the predator's ability to detect the prey and a post-detection behavioral response, variation among prey types in conspicuousness may confound inference about post-prey-detection predator behavior. That is, a relatively high attack rate on a given prey type may result primarily from enhanced conspicuousness and not predators' direct preference for that prey. Few studies, however, account for such variation in conspicuousness. In a field experiment, we measured predation rates on clay replicas of two aposematic forms of the poison dart frog Dendrobates pumilio, one novel and one familiar, and two cryptic controls. To ask whether predators prefer or avoid a novel aposematic prey form independently of conspicuousness differences among replicas, we first modeled the visual system of a typical avian predator. Then, we used this model to estimate replica contrast against a leaf litter background to test whether variation in contrast alone could explain variation in predator attack rate. We found that absolute predation rates did not differ among color forms. Predation rates relative to conspicuousness did, however, deviate significantly from expectation, suggesting that predators do make post-detection decisions to avoid or attack a given prey type. The direction of this deviation from expectation, though, depended on assumptions we made about how avian predators discriminate objects from the visual background. Our results show that it is important to account for prey conspicuousness when investigating predator behavior and also that existing models of predator visual systems need to be refined.

  11. Relative Preference and Localized Food Affect Predator Space Use and Consumption of Incidental Prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler E Schartel

    Full Text Available Abundant, localized foods can concentrate predators and their foraging efforts, thus altering both the spatial distribution of predation risk and predator preferences for prey that are encountered incidentally. However, few investigations have quantified the spatial scale over which localized foods affect predator foraging behavior and consumption of incidental prey. In spring 2010, we experimentally tested how point-source foods altered how generalist predators (white-footed mice, Peromyscus leucopus utilized space and depredated two incidental prey items: almonds (Prunus dulcis; highly profitable and maple seeds (Acer saccharum; less profitable. We estimated mouse population densities with trapping webs, quantified mouse consumption rates of these incidental prey items, and measured local mouse activity with track plates. We predicted that 1 mouse activity would be elevated near full feeders, but depressed at intermediate distances from the feeder, 2 consumption of both incidental prey would be high near feeders providing less-preferred food and, 3 consumption of incidental prey would be contingent on predator preference for prey relative to feeders providing more-preferred food. Mouse densities increased significantly from pre- to post-experiment. Mean mouse activity was unexpectedly greatest in control treatments, particularly <15 m from the control (empty feeder. Feeders with highly preferred food (sunflower seeds created localized refuges for incidental prey at intermediate distances (15 to 25m from the feeder. Feeders with less-preferred food (corn generated localized high risk for highly preferred almonds <10 m of the feeder. Our findings highlight the contingent but predictable effects of locally abundant food on risk experienced by incidental prey, which can be positive or negative depending on both spatial proximity and relative preference.

  12. Probabilistic Estimation of Critical Flaw Sizes in the Primary Structure Welds of the Ares I-X Launch Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, Shantaram S.; Hoge, Peter A.; Patel, B. M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

    2009-01-01

    The primary structure of the Ares I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS) launch vehicle is constructed of welded mild steel plates. There is some concern over the possibility of structural failure due to welding flaws. It was considered critical to quantify the impact of uncertainties in residual stress, material porosity, applied loads, and material and crack growth properties on the reliability of the welds during its pre-flight and flight. A criterion--an existing maximum size crack at the weld toe must be smaller than the maximum allowable flaw size--was established to estimate the reliability of the welds. A spectrum of maximum allowable flaw sizes was developed for different possible combinations of all of the above listed variables by performing probabilistic crack growth analyses using the ANSYS finite element analysis code in conjunction with the NASGRO crack growth code. Two alternative methods were used to account for residual stresses: (1) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 41 ksi and a limit was set on the net section flow stress during crack propagation. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if this limit was exceeded during four complete flight cycles, and (2) The mean residual stress was assumed to be 49.6 ksi (the parent material s yield strength) and the net section flow stress limit was ignored. The critical flaw size was determined by parametrically increasing the initial flaw size and detecting if catastrophic crack growth occurred during four complete flight cycles. Both surface-crack models and through-crack models were utilized to characterize cracks in the weld toe.

  13. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  14. A study on the position estimation and recovery of a small-sized mobile robot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Hwan

    1994-02-01

    Position estimation capability of an autonomous mobile robot is important for a correct path tracking as well as for a complete navigation in a given environment. This paper describes the system with which the robot can estimate the current position and orientation without perceiving its any outer environments or processing vision image which requires much computational load. The designed system is new and simple. It detects wheel slippage, the main cause of navigational error, and makes it possible to recover from its strayed position. The designed system is composed of an encoder on a non-driven castor, an encoded compass disc as an absolute reference frame, two laser-diodes units with photosensors, and some pertinent data processing hardware and software. An encoded compass disc has two-track codes along its outer perimeter, which give the information on the amount of rotation as well as the direction of rotation in case when slip occurs, and gives the information on the exact turning angles to a mobile robot. The experimental results show that the designed system detects wheel slippage and recovers the robot from its strayed position very well

  15. Recovering missing data: estimating position and size of caudal vertebrae in Staurikosaurus pricei Colbert, 1970

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando N. Grillo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a common problem in paleontology. It makes it difficult to reconstruct extinct taxa accurately and restrains the inclusion of some taxa on comparative and biomechanical studies. Particularly, estimating the position of vertebrae on incomplete series is often non-empirical and does not allow precise estimation of missing parts. In this work we present a method for calculating the position of preserved middle sequences of caudal vertebrae in the saurischian dinosaur Staurikosaurus pricei, based on the length and height of preserved anterior and posterior caudal vertebral centra. Regression equations were used to estimate these dimensions for middle vertebrae and, consequently, to assess the position of the preserved middle sequences. It also allowed estimating these dimensions for non-preserved vertebrae. Results indicate that the preserved caudal vertebrae of Staurikosaurus may correspond to positions 1-3, 5, 7, 14-19/15-20, 24-25/25-26, and 29-47, and that at least 25 vertebrae had transverse processes. Total length of the tail was estimated in 134 cm and total body length was 220-225 cm.Dados lacunares são um problema comum na paleontologia. Eles dificultam a reconstrução acurada de táxons extintos e limitam a inclusão de alguns táxons em estudos comparativose biomecânicos. Particularmente, estimar a posição de vértebras em séries incompletas tem sido feito com base em métodos não empíricos que não permitem estimar corretamente as partes ausentes. Neste trabalho apresentamos uma metodologia que permite estimar a posição de sequências médias preservadas de vértebras caudais no dinossauro saurísquio Staurikosaurus pricei, com base no comprimento e altura dos centros das vértebras anteriores e posteriores preservadas. Equações de regressão foram usadas para estimar essas dimensões para as vértebras médias e, consequentemente, para posicionar as sequências médias preservadas e para estimar o tamanho das

  16. Molecular size estimation of plasma membrane β-glucan synthase from red beet root

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sloan, M.E.; Eiberger, L.L.; Wasserman, B.P.

    1986-01-01

    Cellulose and cell wall β-D-glucans in higher plants are thought to be synthesized by the plasma membrane enzyme, β-glucan synthase. This enzyme has never been purified to homogeneity, hence its subunit composition is unknown. Partial purification of red beet root glucan synthase by glycerol density gradient centrifugation followed by SDS-PAGE yielded a highly enriched subunit of 68 kDa. Radiation inactivation of plasma membranes gave a molecular size the 450 kDa for the holoenzyme complex. This suggests that glucan synthase consists of 6 to 7 subunits and confirms electron microscope studies showing that glucan synthases exist as multi-subunit complexes embedded within the membrane

  17. A tiger beetle’s pursuit of prey depends on distance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noest, R. M.; Wang, Z. Jane

    2017-04-01

    Tiger beetles pursue prey by adjusting their heading according to a time-delayed proportional control law that minimizes the error angle (Haselsteiner et al 2014 J. R. Soc. Interface 11 20140216). This control law can be further interpreted in terms of mechanical actuation: to catch prey, tiger beetles exert a sideways force by biasing their tripod gait in proportion to the error angle measured half a stride earlier. The proportional gain was found to be nearly optimal in the sense that it minimizes the time to point directly toward the prey. For a time-delayed linear proportional controller, the optimal gain, k, is inversely proportional to the time delay, τ, and satisfies kτ =1/e . Here we present evidence that tiger beetles adjust their control gain during their pursuit of prey. Our analysis shows two critical distances: one corresponding to the beetle’s final approach to the prey, and the second, less expected, occurring at a distance around 10 cm for a prey size of 4.5 mm. The beetle initiates its chase using a sub-critical gain and increases the gain to the optimal value once the prey is within this critical distance. Insects use a variety of methods to detect distance, often involving different visual cues. Here we examine two such methods: one based on motion parallax and the other based on the prey’s elevation angle. We show that, in order for the motion parallax method to explain the observed data, the beetle needs to correct for the ratio of the prey’s sideways velocity relative to its own. On the other hand, the simpler method based on the elevation angle can detect both the distance and the prey’s size. Moreover we find that the transition distance corresponds to the accuracy required to distinguish small prey from large predators.

  18. The Peculiarities of Territorial Distribution and Abundance of Birds of Prey in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav G. Viter

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the features of the spatial distribution and abundance of birds of prey in the Kharkov region, Ukraine. Investigations were carried out in 2003–2013 years. Totaly we found 1569 nest sites of Falconiformes. There are 29 species of raptors in avifauna of Kharkiv region. Nine of them are wintering species and 16 – nesting. The highest number of nest sites we found in agricultural landscapes – 677 pairs. However, population density here is low, and high number of nest sites can be explained by large extension of this type of habitat. Also significant populations of birds of prey inhabit forest-steppe areas of Central Russian Upland (East European Plain – 468 pairs, steppe areas of Central Russian Upland – at least 279 pairs (notable that the size of steppe areas are 4 times smaller then forest-steppe areas, and gully forests on the spurs of Donets Ridge – 205 pairs (the size of this habitat in Kharkiv region is no more than 3 000 km2. The other habitats includes highlands in the forest-steppe zone covered with oak forests – 431 pairs, and floodplain forests in the valley of river Siverskyi Donets – 148 pairs (with rather small area of this habitat. These last two habitats are refuge for local populations of Booted Eagle (Hieraaetus pennata and Honey Buzzard (Pernis apivorus because these areas held the most stable nest sites and the highest density of these two species. The same could be said about gully forests on the spurs of Donets Ridge. The estimate number of breeding pairs of Falconiformes in gully forests is around 290 pairs. In this study, we also assessed the total number of breeding Birds of Prey in Kharkiv region. Here are our estimates: Honey Buzzard – 142–156 pairs, Black Kite (Milvus migrans – 133–148 pairs, White-Tailed Eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla – 26–28 pairs, Montagu’s Harrier (Circus pygargus – 174–191, Marsh Harrier (C. aeruginosus – 344–359, Northern Goshawk

  19. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah P. Shutt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

  20. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2017-12-01

    As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey interaction model and parameter identifiability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Meghwani, Suraj S.; Thakur, Manoj; Abbas, Syed

    2018-01-01

    In this work, bifurcation and a systematic approach for estimation of identifiable parameters of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin functional response and prey refuge is discussed. Global asymptotic stability is discussed by applying fluctuation lemma. The system undergoes into Hopf bifurcation with respect to parameters intrinsic growth rate of predators (s) and prey reserve (m). The stability of Hopf bifurcation is also discussed by calculating Lyapunov number. The sensitivity analysis of the considered model system with respect to all variables is performed which also supports our theoretical study. To estimate the unknown parameter from the data, an optimization procedure (pseudo-random search algorithm) is adopted. System responses and phase plots for estimated parameters are also compared with true noise free data. It is found that the system dynamics with true set of parametric values is similar to the estimated parametric values. Numerical simulations are presented to substantiate the analytical findings.

  2. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  4. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  5. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  6. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  7. Effect of source depth correction on the estimation of earthquake size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Panza, G.

    1995-03-01

    The relationship between surface wave magnitude, M s , and seismic moment, M o , of earthquakes is essential for the estimation of seismic risk in any region. In the hypothesis of constant stress drop, theoretical models predict that Log M o and M s are related by a linear law. The slope most commonly found in the literature is around 1.5. Here we show that the application to the Ms values of the necessary correction for the focal depth, gives a general increment of the correlation coefficient, and that a slope around 1.0 is consistent with the global data, while for regionalized data it can vary from about 1.0 to 2.0. (author). 14 refs, 3 tabs

  8. Effect of source depth correction on the estimation of earthquake size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romanelli, F [Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Trieste (Italy). Istituto di Geodesia e Geofisica; Panza, G

    1995-03-01

    The relationship between surface wave magnitude, M{sub s}, and seismic moment, M{sub o}, of earthquakes is essential for the estimation of seismic risk in any region. In the hypothesis of constant stress drop, theoretical models predict that Log M{sub o} and M{sub s} are related by a linear law. The slope most commonly found in the literature is around 1.5. Here we show that the application to the Ms values of the necessary correction for the focal depth, gives a general increment of the correlation coefficient, and that a slope around 1.0 is consistent with the global data, while for regionalized data it can vary from about 1.0 to 2.0. (author). 14 refs, 3 tabs.

  9. Prey selection of a captive Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus hammering Mussels Mytilus edulis from the ventral side

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ens, Bruno J.; Alting, D

    1996-01-01

    We studied prey choice of a captive Oystercatcher:hat hammered Mussels from the ventral side. The results replicate previous findings that ventral hammerers select Mussels of intermediate size, select against thick-shelled Mussels, abandon an increasing proportion of Mussels with increasing size and

  10. Improving the rainfall rate estimation in the midstream of the Heihe River Basin using raindrop size distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zhao

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available During the intensive observation period of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER, a total of 1074 raindrop size distribution were measured by the Parsivel disdrometer, the latest state-of-the-art optical laser instrument. Because of the limited observation data in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the modelling behaviour was not well done. We used raindrop size distributions to improve the rain rate estimator of meteorological radar in order to obtain many accurate rain rate data in this area. We got the relationship between the terminal velocity of the raindrop and the diameter (mm of a raindrop: v(D = 4.67D0.53. Then four types of estimators for X-band polarimetric radar are examined. The simulation results show that the classical estimator R (ZH is most sensitive to variations in DSD and the estimator R (KDP, ZH, ZDR is the best estimator for estimating the rain rate. An X-band polarimetric radar (714XDP is used for verifying these estimators. The lowest sensitivity of the rain rate estimator R (KDP, ZH, ZDR to variations in DSD can be explained by the following facts. The difference in the forward-scattering amplitudes at horizontal and vertical polarizations, which contributes KDP, is proportional to the 3rd power of the drop diameter. On the other hand, the exponent of the backscatter cross-section, which contributes to ZH, is proportional to the 6th power of the drop diameter. Because the rain rate R is proportional to the 3.57th power of the drop diameter, KDP is less sensitive to DSD variations than ZH.

  11. Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.; Bunnell, David B.

    2009-01-01

    Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We also provide indices for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references.For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance (W), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P-value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated

  12. Noise-induced extinction for a ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Partha Sarathi

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we study a stochastically forced ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey population. In the deterministic case, we show that the model exhibits the stable interior equilibrium point or limit cycle corresponding to the co-existence of both species. We investigate a probabilistic mechanism of the noise-induced extinction in a zone of stable interior equilibrium point. Computational methods based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique are applied for the analysis of the dispersion of random states near stable interior equilibrium point. This method allows to construct a confidence domain and estimate the threshold value of the noise intensity for a transition from the coexistence to the extinction.

  13. Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  14. Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Desorcie, Timothy J.; Kostich, Melissa Jean; Armenio, Patricia M.; Adams, Jean V.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has conducted lake-wide surveys of the fish community in Lake Michigan each fall since 1973 using standard 12-m bottom trawls towed along contour at depths of 9 to 110 m at each of seven index transects. The resulting data on relative abundance, size and age structure, and condition of individual fishes are used to estimate various population parameters that are in turn used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. All seven established index transects of the survey were completed in 2013. The survey provides relative abundance and biomass estimates between the 5-m and 114-m depth contours of the lake (herein, lake-wide) for prey fish populations, as well as burbot, yellow perch, and the introduced dreissenid mussels. Lake-wide biomass of alewives in 2013 was estimated at 29 kilotonnes (kt, 1 kt = 1000 metric tonnes), which was more than three times the 2012 estimate. However, the unusually high standard error associated with the 2013 estimate indicated no significant increase in lake-wide biomass between 2012 and 2013. Moreover, the age distribution of alewives remained truncated with no alewife exceeding an age of 5. The population of age-1 and older alewives was dominated (i.e., 88%) by the 2010 and 2012 year-classes. Record low biomass was observed for deepwater sculpin (1.3 kt) and ninespine stickleback (0.004 kt) in 2013, while bloater (1.6 kt) and rainbow smelt (0.2 kt) biomasses remained at low levels. Slimy sculpin lake-wide biomass was 0.32 kt in 2013, marking the fourth consecutive year of a decline. The 2013 biomass of round goby was estimated at 10.9 kt, which represented the peak estimate to date. Burbot lake-wide biomass (0.4 kt in 2013) has remained below 3 kt since 2001. Numeric density of age-0 yellow perch (i.e., fish per ha, which is indicative of a relatively poor year-class. Lake-wide biomass estimate of dreissenid mussels in 2013 was 23.2 kt. Overall, the total

  15. Varying stiffness and load distributions in defective ball bearings: Analytical formulation and application to defect size estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Dick; Howard, Carl; Prime, Zebb

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents an analytical formulation of the load distribution and varying effective stiffness of a ball bearing assembly with a raceway defect of varying size, subjected to static loading in the radial, axial and rotational degrees of freedom. The analytical formulation is used to study the effect of the size of the defect on the load distribution and varying stiffness of the bearing assembly. The study considers a square-shaped outer raceway defect centered in the load zone and the bearing is loaded in the radial and axial directions while the moment loads are zero. Analysis of the load distributions shows that as the defect size increases, defect-free raceway sections are subjected to increased static loading when one or more balls completely or partly destress when positioned in the defect zone. The stiffness variations that occur when balls pass through the defect zone are significantly larger and change more rapidly at the defect entrance and exit than the stiffness variations that occur for the defect-free bearing case. These larger, more rapid stiffness variations generate parametric excitations which produce the low frequency defect entrance and exit events typically observed in the vibration response of a bearing with a square-shaped raceway defect. Analysis of the stiffness variations further shows that as the defect size increases, the mean radial stiffness decreases in the loaded radial and axial directions and increases in the unloaded radial direction. The effects of such stiffness changes on the low frequency entrance and exit events in the vibration response are simulated with a multi-body nonlinear dynamic model. Previous work used the time difference between the low frequency entrance event and the high frequency exit event to estimate the size of the defect. However, these previous defect size estimation techniques cannot distinguish between defects that differ in size by an integer number of the ball angular spacing, and a third feature

  16. Automated estimation of abdominal effective diameter for body size normalization of CT dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Phillip M

    2013-06-01

    Most CT dose data aggregation methods do not currently adjust dose values for patient size. This work proposes a simple heuristic for reliably computing an effective diameter of a patient from an abdominal CT image. Evaluation of this method on 106 patients scanned on Philips Brilliance 64 and Brilliance Big Bore scanners demonstrates close correspondence between computed and manually measured patient effective diameters, with a mean absolute error of 1.0 cm (error range +2.2 to -0.4 cm). This level of correspondence was also demonstrated for 60 patients on Siemens, General Electric, and Toshiba scanners. A calculated effective diameter in the middle slice of an abdominal CT study was found to be a close approximation of the mean calculated effective diameter for the study, with a mean absolute error of approximately 1.0 cm (error range +3.5 to -2.2 cm). Furthermore, the mean absolute error for an adjusted mean volume computed tomography dose index (CTDIvol) using a mid-study calculated effective diameter, versus a mean per-slice adjusted CTDIvol based on the calculated effective diameter of each slice, was 0.59 mGy (error range 1.64 to -3.12 mGy). These results are used to calculate approximate normalized dose length product values in an abdominal CT dose database of 12,506 studies.

  17. Estimation of lattice strain in nanocrystalline RuO2 by Williamson-Hall and size-strain plot methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakami, R.; Dhanuskodi, S.; Karvembu, R.

    2016-01-01

    RuO2 nanoparticles (RuO2 NPs) have been successfully synthesized by the hydrothermal method. Structure and the particle size have been determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). UV-Vis spectra reveal that the optical band gap of RuO2 nanoparticles is red shifted from 3.95 to 3.55 eV. BET measurements show a high specific surface area (SSA) of 118-133 m2/g and pore diameter (10-25 nm) has been estimated by Barret-Joyner-Halenda (BJH) method. The crystallite size and lattice strain in the samples have been investigated by Williamson-Hall (W-H) analysis assuming uniform deformation, deformation stress and deformation energy density, and the size-strain plot method. All other relevant physical parameters including stress, strain and energy density have been calculated. The average crystallite size and the lattice strain evaluated from XRD measurements are in good agreement with the results of TEM.

  18. Estimation of lattice strain in nanocrystalline RuO2 by Williamson-Hall and size-strain plot methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakami, R; Dhanuskodi, S; Karvembu, R

    2016-01-05

    RuO2 nanoparticles (RuO2 NPs) have been successfully synthesized by the hydrothermal method. Structure and the particle size have been determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). UV-Vis spectra reveal that the optical band gap of RuO2 nanoparticles is red shifted from 3.95 to 3.55eV. BET measurements show a high specific surface area (SSA) of 118-133m(2)/g and pore diameter (10-25nm) has been estimated by Barret-Joyner-Halenda (BJH) method. The crystallite size and lattice strain in the samples have been investigated by Williamson-Hall (W-H) analysis assuming uniform deformation, deformation stress and deformation energy density, and the size-strain plot method. All other relevant physical parameters including stress, strain and energy density have been calculated. The average crystallite size and the lattice strain evaluated from XRD measurements are in good agreement with the results of TEM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE 3D SIZE-DISTRIBUTIONCURVE OF FRAGMENTED ROCKS OUT OF 2D IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souhaïl Outal

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Image analysis of rock fragmentation is used in mines and quarries to control the quality of blasting. Obtained information is the particle-size-distribution curve relating volume-proportions to the sizes of fragments. Calculation by image analysis of this particle-size-distribution is carried out in several steps, and each step has its inherent limitations. We will focus in this paper on one of themost crucial steps: reconstructing the volumes (3D. For the 3D-step, we have noticed that, due to the current acquisition method, there is no correlation between the average grey level of surfaces of the fragments and their third dimension. Consequently volumes (3D as well as the sizes (1D has to be calculated indirectly from the extracted projected areas of the visible fragments of images. For this purpose, we have built in laboratory a set of images of fragmented rocks resulting from blasting. Moreover, several tests based on comparisons between image analysis and screening measurements were carried out. A new stereological method, based on the comparison of the densities of probability (histograms of the samemeasurements (with very weak covering and overlappingwas elaborated. It allows us to estimate correctly, for a given type of rock, two intrinsic laws weighing the projected areas distribution in order to predict the volumic distribution.

  20. Tadpoles of three common anuran species from Thailand do not prey on mosquito larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weterings, Robbie

    2015-12-01

    Tadpoles are often considered to be predators of mosquito larvae and are therefore beneficial for the control of certain disease vectors. Nevertheless, only a few species have actually been recorded to prey on mosquito larvae. The mosquito larvae predation rates of tadpoles of three common Thai anuran species (Bufo melanostictus, Kaloula pulchra and Hylarana raniceps) were experimentally tested. Tadpoles in varying developmental stages were used to assess a size/age effect on the predation rate. In addition, different instars of Culex quinquefasciatus were used in order to assess a prey size effect on the predation rates. All three species failed to show any evidence of mosquito larvae predation. Neither small nor large tadpoles fed on mosquito larvae. Prey size also did not affect predation. Although tadpoles do not feed on mosquito larvae, there may be other direct or indirect inter-specific interactions that adversely impact the development of larvae in shared habitats with tadpoles. © 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  1. An Assessment of Transport Property Estimation Methods for Ammonia–Water Mixtures and Their Influence on Heat Exchanger Size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærn, Martin Ryhl; Modi, Anish; Jensen, Jonas Kjær

    2015-01-01

    Transport properties of fluids are indispensable for heat exchanger design. The methods for estimating the transport properties of ammonia–water mixtures are not well established in the literature. The few existent methods are developed from none or limited, sometimes inconsistent experimental...... of ammonia–water mixtures. Firstly, the different methods are introduced and compared at various temperatures and pressures. Secondly, their individual influence on the required heat exchanger size (surface area) is investigated. For this purpose, two case studies related to the use of the Kalina cycle...... the interpolative methods in contrast to the corresponding state methods. Nevertheless, all possible mixture transport property combinations used herein resulted in a heat exchanger size within 4.3 % difference for the flue-gas heat recovery boiler, and within 12.3 % difference for the oil-based boiler....

  2. Range camera on conveyor belts: estimating size distribution and systematic errors due to occlusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomquist, Mats; Wernersson, Ake V.

    1999-11-01

    When range cameras are used for analyzing irregular material on a conveyor belt there will be complications like missing segments caused by occlusion. Also, a number of range discontinuities will be present. In a frame work towards stochastic geometry, conditions are found for the cases when range discontinuities take place. The test objects in this paper are pellets for the steel industry. An illuminating laser plane will give range discontinuities at the edges of each individual object. These discontinuities are used to detect and measure the chord created by the intersection of the laser plane and the object. From the measured chords we derive the average diameter and its variance. An improved method is to use a pair of parallel illuminating light planes to extract two chords. The estimation error for this method is not larger than the natural shape fluctuations (the difference in diameter) for the pellets. The laser- camera optronics is sensitive enough both for material on a conveyor belt and free falling material leaving the conveyor.

  3. Effects of tissue-preparation-induced callose synthesis on estimates of plasmodesma size exclusion limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radford, J E; White, R G

    2001-01-01

    Plasmodesmata are often characterised by their size exclusion limit (SEL), which is the molecular weight of the largest dye, introduced by microinjection, that will move from cell to cell. In this study, we investigated whether commonly used techniques for isolation and manipulation of tissues, and microinjection of fluorescent dyes, affected the SEL, and whether any such effects could be ameliorated by inhibiting callose deposition. We examined young root epidermal cells of Arabidopsis thaliana and staminal hair cells of Tradescantia virginiana, two tissues often used in experiments on symplastic transport. Transport in root tips dissected from the main plant body and in stamen hairs removed from the base of the stamen filament was compared with transport in undissected roots and stamen hairs attached to the base of the filament, respectively. Tissues were microinjected with fluorescent dyes (457 Da to > 3 kDa) with or without prior incubation in the callose deposition inhibitors 2-deoxy-D-glucose or aniline blue fluorochrome. In both tissues, dissection reduced the SEL, which was largely prevented by prior incubation in 2-deoxy-D-glucose but not by incubation in aniline blue fluorochrome. Thus, standard methods for tissue preparation can cause sufficient callose deposition to reduce cell-to-cell transport, and this needs to be considered in studies employing microinjection. Introduction of the dyes by pressure injection rather than iontophoresis decreased the SEL in A. thaliana but increased it in T. virginiana, showing that these two injection techniques do not necessarily give identical results and that plasmodesmata in different tissues may respond differently to similar experimental procedures.

  4. Numerical simulation of temperature distribution using finite difference equations and estimation of the grain size during friction stir processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arora, H.S.; Singh, H.; Dhindaw, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Magnesium alloy AE42 was friction stir processed under different cooling conditions. ► Heat flow model was developed using finite difference heat equations. ► Generalized MATLAB code was developed for solving heat flow model. ► Regression equation for estimation of grain size was developed. - Abstract: The present investigation is aimed at developing a heat flow model to simulate temperature history during friction stir processing (FSP). A new approach of developing implicit form of finite difference heat equations solved using MATLAB code was used. A magnesium based alloy AE42 was friction stir processed (FSPed) at different FSP parameters and cooling conditions. Temperature history was continuously recorded in the nugget zone during FSP using data acquisition system and k type thermocouples. The developed code was validated at different FSP parameters and cooling conditions during FSP experimentation. The temperature history at different locations in the nugget zone at different instants of time was further utilized for the estimation of grain growth rate and final average grain size of the FSPed specimen. A regression equation relating the final grain size, maximum temperature during FSP and the cooling rate was developed. The metallurgical characterization was done using optical microscopy, SEM, and FIB-SIM analysis. The simulated temperature profiles and final average grain size were found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. The presence of fine precipitate particles generated in situ in the investigated magnesium alloy also contributed in the evolution of fine grain structure through Zener pining effect at the grain boundaries.

  5. The Dynamics of a Nonautonomous Predator-Prey Model with Infertility Control in the Prey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomei Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonautonomous predator-prey model with infertility control in the prey is formulated and investigated. Threshold conditions for the permanence and extinction of fertility prey and infertility prey are established. Some new threshold values of integral form are obtained. For the periodic cases, these threshold conditions act as sharp threshold values for the permanence and extinction of fertility prey and infertility prey. There are also mounting concerns that the quantity of biological sterile drug is obtained in the process of the prevention and control of pest in the grasslands and farmland. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the main results of this paper. The numerical simulations shown that, when the pest population is permanet, different dynamic behaviors may be found in this model, such as the global attractivity and the chaotic attractor.

  6. Estimating the size of the cavity and surrounding failed region for underground nuclear explosions from scaling rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, Leo A [El Paso Natural Gas Company (United States)

    1970-05-01

    The fundamental physical principles involved in the formation of an underground cavity by a nuclear explosion and breakage of the rock surrounding the cavity are examined from the point of view of making preliminary estimates of their sizes where there is a limited understanding of the rock characteristics. Scaling equations for cavity formation based on adiabatic expansion are reviewed and further developed to include the strength of the material surrounding the shot point as well as the overburden above the shot point. The region of rock breakage or permanent distortion surround ing the explosion generated cavity is estimated using both the Von Mises and Coulomb-Mohr failure criteria. It is found that the ratio of the rock failure radius to the cavity radius for these two criteria becomes independent of yield and dependent only on the failure mechanics of the rock. The analytical solutions developed for the Coulomb-Mohr and Von Mises criteria are presented in graphical form. (author)

  7. Source term estimation for small sized HTRs: status and further needs - a german approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moormann, R.; Schenk, W.; Verfondern, K.

    2000-01-01

    The main results of German studies on source term estimation for small pebble-bed HTRs with their strict safety demands are outlined. Core heat-up events are no longer dominant for modern high quality fuel, but fission product transport during water ingress accidents (steam cycle plants) and depressurization is relevant, mainly due to remobilization of fission products which were plated-out in the course of normal operation or became dust borne. An important lack of knowledge was identified as concerns data on plate-out under normal operation, as well as on the behaviour of dust borne activity as a whole. Improved knowledge in this field is also important for maintenance/repair and design/shielding. For core heat-up events the influence of burn-up on temperature induced fission product release has to be measured for future high burn-up fuel. Also, transport mechanisms out of the He circuit into the environment require further examination. For water/steam ingress events mobilization of plated-out fission products by steam or water has to be considered in detail, along with steam interaction with kernels of particles with defective coatings. For source terms of depressurization, a more detailed knowledge of the flow pattern and shear forces on the various surfaces is necessary. In order to improve the knowledge on plate-out and dust in normal operation and to generate specimens for experimental remobilization studies, planning/design of plate-out/dust examination facilities which could be added to the next generation of HTRs (HTR10,HTTR) is proposed. For severe air ingress and reactivity accidents, behaviour of future advanced fuel elements has to be experimentally tested. (authors)

  8. Supersaturation Control using Analytical Crystal Size Distribution Estimator for Temperature Dependent in Nucleation and Crystal Growth Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Zakirah Mohd; Zubaidah Adnan, Siti; Kanthasamy, Ramesh; Saleh, Suriyati; Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The specification of the crystal product is usually given in terms of crystal size distribution (CSD). To this end, optimal cooling strategy is necessary to achieve the CSD. The direct design control involving analytical CSD estimator is one of the approaches that can be used to generate the set-point. However, the effects of temperature on the crystal growth rate are neglected in the estimator. Thus, the temperature dependence on the crystal growth rate needs to be considered in order to provide an accurate set-point. The objective of this work is to extend the analytical CSD estimator where Arrhenius expression is employed to cover the effects of temperature on the growth rate. The application of this work is demonstrated through a potassium sulphate crystallisation process. Based on specified target CSD, the extended estimator is capable of generating the required set-point where a proposed controller successfully maintained the operation at the set-point to achieve the target CSD. Comparison with other cooling strategies shows a reduction up to 18.2% of the total number of undesirable crystals generated from secondary nucleation using linear cooling strategy is achieved.

  9. Are lemmings prey or predators?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, P.; Oksanen, L.; Ekerholm, P.; Oksanen, T.; Henttonen, H.