RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

Communicating and Visualizing Erosion-associated Risks to Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Hewett, Caspar; Simpson, Carolyn; Wainwright, John

2016-04-01

Soil erosion is a major problem worldwide, affecting agriculture, the natural environment and urban areas through its impact on flood risk, water quality, loss of nutrient-rich upper soil layers, eutrophication of water bodies, sedimentation of waterways and sediment-related damage to roads, buildings and infrastructure such as water, gas and electricity supply networks. This study focuses on risks to infrastructure associated with erosion and the interventions needed to reduce those risks. Deciding on what interventions to make means understanding better which parts of the landscape are most susceptible to erosion and which measures are most effective in reducing it. Effective ways of communicating mitigation strategies to stakeholders such as farmers, land managers and policy-makers are then essential if interventions are to be implemented. Drawing on the Decision-Support Matrix (DSM) approach which combines a set of hydrological principles with Participatory Action Research (PAR), a decision-support tool for Communicating and Visualizing Erosion-Associated Risks to Infrastructure (CAVERTI) was developed. The participatory component was developed with the Wear Rivers Trust, focusing on a case-study area in the North East of England. The CAVERTI tool brings together process understanding gained from modelling with knowledge and experience of a variety of stakeholders to address directly the problem of sediment transport. Development of the tool was a collaborative venture, ensuring that the problems and solutions presented are easily recognised by practitioners and decision-makers. This recognition, and ease of access via a web-based interface, in turn help to ensure that the tools get used. The web-based tool developed helps to assess, manage and improve understanding of risk from a multi-stakeholder perspective and proposes solutions to problems. We argue that visualization and communication tools co-developed by researchers and stakeholders are the best means

Development of erosion risk map using fuzzy logic approach

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Fauzi Manyuk

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Erosion-hazard assessment is an important aspect in the management of a river basin such as Siak River Basin, Riau Province, Indonesia. This study presents an application of fuzzy logic approach to develop erosion risk map based on geographic information system. Fuzzy logic is a computing approach based on “degrees of truth” rather than the usual “true or false” (1 or 0 Boolean logic on which the modern computer is based. The results of the erosion risk map were verified by using field measurements. The verification result shows that the parameter of soil-erodibility (K indicates a good agreement with field measurement data. The classification of soil-erodibility (K as the result of validation were: very low (0.0–0.1, medium (0.21-0.32, high (0.44-0.55 and very high (0.56-0.64. The results obtained from this study show that the erosion risk map of Siak River Basin were dominantly classified as medium level which cover about 68.54%. The other classifications were high and very low erosion level which cover about 28.84% and 2.61% respectively.

Mapping soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola (Portugal)

Science.gov (United States)

Neto Paixão, H. M.; Granja Martins, F. M.; Zavala, L. M.; Jordán, A.; Bellinfante, N.

2012-04-01

Geomorphological processes can pose environmental risks to people and economical activities. Information and a better knowledge of the genesis of these processes is important for environmental planning, since it allows to model, quantify and classify risks, what can mitigate the threats. The objective of this research is to assess the soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola, which is a north-south oriented mountain ridge with an altitude of 383 m, located in southwest of Alentejo (southern Portugal). The study area is 675 km2, including the councils of Grândola, Santiago do Cacém and Sines. The process for mapping of erosive status was based on the guidelines for measuring and mapping the processes of erosion of coastal areas of the Mediterranean proposed by PAP/RAC (1997), developed and later modified by other authors in different areas. This method is based on the application of a geographic information system that integrates different types of spatial information inserted into a digital terrain model and in their derivative models. Erosive status are classified using information from soil erodibility, slope, land use and vegetation cover. The rainfall erosivity map was obtained using the modified Fournier index, calculated from the mean monthly rainfall, as recorded in 30 meteorological stations with influence in the study area. Finally, the soil erosion risk map was designed by ovelaying the erosive status map and the rainfall erosivity map.

Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in the Great Lakes Region

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Lili Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting future erosion control efforts, and/or conservation funding. Therefore, the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity—Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP soil erosion model was utilized to quantify soil losses under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, B1 using projections from three general circulation models (GFDL, PCM, HadCM3 for the Great Lakes region from 2000 to 2100. Soil loss was predicted to decrease throughout three future periods (2030s, 2060s, and 2090s by 0.4–0.7 ton ha−1 year−1 (4.99–23.2% relative to the historical period (2000s with predicted air temperature increases of 0.68–4.34 °C and precipitation increases of 1.74–63.7 mm year−1 (0.23–8.6%. In the forested northern study domain erosion kept increasing by 0.01–0.18 ton ha−1 year−1 over three future periods due to increased precipitation of 9.7–68.3 mm year−1. The southern study domain covered by cropland and grassland had predicted soil loss decreases of 0.01–1.43 ton ha−1 year−1 due to air temperature increases of 1.75–4.79 °C and reduced precipitation in the summer. Fall and winter had greater risks of increased soil loss based on predictions for these two seasons under the A2 scenario, with the greatest cropland soil loss increase due to increased fall precipitation, and combined effects of increases in both precipitation and air temperature in the winter. Fall was identified with higher risks under the A1B scenario, while spring and summer were identified with the greatest risk of increased soil losses under the B1 scenario due to the increases in both precipitation and air temperature.

Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

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MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

2000-01-01

Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

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Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

Identification of soil erosion risk areas for conservation planning in different states of India.

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Sharda, V N; Mandal, Debashis; Ojasvi, P R

2013-03-01

Assessment of soil erosion risks, especially in the developing countries, is a challenging task mainly due to non-availability or insufficiency of relevant data. In this paper, the soil erosion risks have been estimated by integrating the spatial data on potential erosion rates and soil loss tolerance limits for conservation planning at state level in India. The erosion risk classes have been prioritized based upon the difference between the prevailing erosion rates and the permissible erosion limits. The analysis revealed that about 50% of total geographical area (TGA) of India, falling in five priority erosion risk classes, requires different intensity of conservation measures though about 91% area suffers from potential erosion rates varying from 40 t ha(-1) yr(-1). Statewise analysis indicated that Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan share about 75% of total area under priority Class 1 (6.4 M ha) though they account for only 19.4% of the total area (36.2 M ha) under very severe potential erosion rate category (> 40 t ha(-1)yr(-1)). It was observed that about 75% of total geographical area (TGA) in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Punjab does not require any specific soil conservation measure as the potential erosion rates are well within the tolerance limits. The developed methodology can be successfully employed for prioritization of erosion risk areas at watershed, region or country level.

Estimating the Soil Erosion Risk Around Ankara-Bağlum Kösrelik Pond Using CORINE Method

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Emel YALÇIN

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, the Rural Recreation Area of Kösrelik Pond in the Keçiören district of Ankara was studied. The maps of potential and actual soil erosion risk of about 65 ha of the environment surrounding the pond, which was planned as a rural recreation area, were investigated using CORINE methodology. Accordingly, the necessary physical and chemical soil analyses were performed on 10 surface samples and soil samples from 4 profiles additionally opened on the field, and the maps were created by CORINE methodology using GIS technologies. According to the results of the potential soil erosion risk map obtained in this study, no potential erosion risk was found in 10% whereas, low risk of potential erosion was determined in 9%. In addition medium risk of potential erosion was found in 66%, and high risk of potential erosion was found in 15% of the total area. Nevertheless, according to the results of the actual soil erosion risk map, no actual erosion risk was found in 10% whereas, low risk was found in 2%, medium risk was found in 24%. Moreover, high risk of actual erosion was found in 64% of the total area. It has been observed that the natural vegetation within the study area has substantially prevented erosion. The amount of erosion substantially increases due to the destruction of natural vegetation and soil cultivation of agricultural land

Past and future drivers of increased erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

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Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2014-12-01

We use hourly observations of water levels from two tide gauges and wave data from three buoys to assess their relative contribution to past and potential future changes in the erosion risk for Dauphin Island, a barrier island located off the coastline of Alabama. Topographic information (i.e. beach slopes and dune toe and crest heights) is obtained from the most recent lidar survey conducted in the area in July 2013. Water levels and wave parameters (i.e. significant wave height and peak period) from the two tide gauges and three wave buoys are merged into single records spanning the period from 1981 to 2013. The Stockdon et al. (2006) run-up model is used to estimate the 2% exceedance values of wave run-up maxima, which are then combined with the observed water levels at the representative tide gauge site to obtain total water levels (TWLs). With this information we assess the relative contribution of geocentric sea level rise, vertical land-movement, and long-term changes in the wave parameters to the observed increase in erosion risk. The latter is approximated using the concept of impact hours per year (IHPY; Ruggiero 2013) at dune toe and dune crest elevation thresholds derived from the lidar data. Wahl et al. (2014) recently discovered a significant increase in the amplitude of the seasonal sea level cycle in the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we explore the potential of these changes, and similar developments in the seasonal cycle of the wave data and corresponding IHPY, to affect coastal erosion. Such intra-annual signals with longer-term variations have not been included in most earlier studies in favour of analysing the effects of annually averaged long-term trends. Finally, scenarios of potential future changes of all relevant parameters are used to explore their relative contribution to further increase in the coastal erosion risk over the next few decades.

Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

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S. Corbella

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Prevalence and risk factors of dental erosion in American children.

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Habib, Mariam; Hottel, Timothy L; Hong, Liang

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and characteristics of dental erosion in children aged 2-4 years old and 12 years old. 243 subjects were recruited from daycare centers, preschools, and grade schools; they received dental examinations assessing their condition of dental erosion, including both depth and area of tooth surface loss on four maxillary incisors. Questionnaires were given to the subjects to obtain socio-demographic, oral health behaviors at home, and access to dental care. Dental erosion was analyzed and risk factors were assessed using Chi-Square and logistic regression analysis. The subjects were 60% Caucasians, 31% Black, 7% Hispanic and others were 2%. 34% of children could not get the dental care they needed within the past 12 months and 61% of all children brushed their teeth twice or more daily. Overall, 12% of study children had dental erosion with 13% for 2-4 years old and 10% for 12 years old, with the majority of erosive lesions within enamel. Family income (OR 3.98, p = 0.021) and acidic fruit juice consumption (OR 2.38, p = 0.038) were significant risk factors for dental erosion, even after controlling for other factors, such as source of drinking water and oral hygiene using logistic regression analysis. Dental erosion is a relatively common problem among the children in this study and it is seen as a multi-factorial process.

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Mapping regional soil water erosion risk in the Brittany-Loire basin for water management agency

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Degan, Francesca; Cerdan, Olivier; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Gautier, Jean-Noël

2014-05-01

Soil water erosion is one of the main degradation processes that affect soils through the removal of soil particles from the surface. The impacts for environment and agricultural areas are diverse, such as water pollution, crop yield depression, organic matter loss and reduction in water storage capacity. There is therefore a strong need to produce maps at the regional scale to help environmental policy makers and soil and water management bodies to mitigate the effect of water and soil pollution. Our approach aims to model and map soil erosion risk at regional scale (155 000 km²) and high spatial resolution (50 m) in the Brittany - Loire basin. The factors responsible for soil erosion are different according to the spatial and time scales considered. The regional scale entails challenges about homogeneous data sets availability, spatial resolution of results, various erosion processes and agricultural practices. We chose to improve the MESALES model (Le Bissonnais et al., 2002) to map soil erosion risk, because it was developed specifically for water erosion in agricultural fields in temperate areas. The MESALES model consists in a decision tree which gives for each combination of factors the corresponding class of soil erosion risk. Four factors that determine soil erosion risk are considered: soils, land cover, climate and topography. The first main improvement of the model consists in using newly available datasets that are more accurate than the initial ones. The datasets used cover all the study area homogeneously. Soil dataset has a 1/1 000 000 scale and attributes such as texture, soil type, rock fragment and parent material are used. The climate dataset has a spatial resolution of 8 km and a temporal resolution of mm/day for 12 years. Elevation dataset has a spatial resolution of 50 m. Three different land cover datasets are used where the finest spatial resolution is 50 m over three years. Using these datasets, four erosion factors are characterized and

Predicting soil erosion risk at the Alqueva dam watershed

OpenAIRE

Ferreira, Vera; Panagopoulos, Thomas

2012-01-01

Soil erosion is serious economic and environmental concern. Assessing soil erosion risk in the Alqueva dam watershed is urgently needed to conserve soil and water resources and prevent the accelerated dam siltation, taking into account the possible land-use changes, due to tourism development, intensification of irrigated farming and biomass production, as well as climate change. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and Geographic Info...

Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

Runoff erosion

OpenAIRE

Evelpidou, Niki (Ed.); Cordier, Stephane (Ed.); Merino, Agustin (Ed.); Figueiredo, Tomás de (Ed.); Centeri, Csaba (Ed.)

2013-01-01

Table of Contents PART I – THEORY OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 1 - RUNOFF EROSION – THE MECHANISMS CHAPTER 2 - LARGE SCALE APPROACHES OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 3 - MEASURING PRESENT RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 4 - MODELLING RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 5 - RUNOFF EROSION AND HUMAN SOCIETIES: THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION PART II - CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES – INTRODUCTION: RUNOFF EROSION IN MEDITERRANEAN AREA CASE STUDY 1: Soil Erosion Risk...

Using the Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Erosion Risk Mapping of Kartalkaya Dam Watershed in Kahramanmaras, Turkey

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Abdullah E. Akay

2008-08-01

Full Text Available The soil erosion is the most serious environmental problem in watershed areas in Turkey. The main factors affecting the amount of soil erosion include vegetation cover, topography, soil, and climate. In order to describe the areas with high soil erosion risks and to develop adequate erosion prevention measures in the watersheds of dams, erosion risk maps should be generated considering these factors. Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS technologies were used for erosion risk mapping in Kartalkaya Dam Watershed of Kahramanmaras, Turkey, based on the methodology implemented in COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE model. ASTER imagery was used to generate a land use/cover classification in ERDAS Imagine. The digital maps of the other factors (topography, soil types, and climate were generated in ArcGIS v9.2, and were then integrated as CORINE input files to produce erosion risk maps. The results indicate that 33.82%, 35.44%, and 30.74% of the study area were under low, moderate, and high actual erosion risks, respectively. The CORINE model integrated with RS and GIS technologies has great potential for producing accurate and inexpensive erosion risk maps in Turkey.

Multivariate erosion risk assessment of lateritic badlands of Birbhum

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Each geomorphic hazard involves a degree of risk which incorporates quantification of the probability that a hazard will be harmful. At present, the categorization of sub-watersheds into erosion risk is considered as the fundamental step to conserve the soil loss. Development of badlands over the laterites of Birbhum district ...

Device closure of secundum atrial septal defect's and the risk of cardiac erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, J D R; Qureshi, S A

2015-12-01

Cardiac erosion related to transcatheter atrial septal defect closure devices is of increasing concern. Erosion is reported to have occurred with most of currently available occluder devices. Perhaps due to the very large number of implants worldwide, the Amplatzer (St Jude) occluder is associated with the majority of cardiac erosion events reported in the literature. Best current estimates of the incidence of erosion with the St Jude device are between one and three cases per 1000 implants. Most events occur early after implantation and it is rare, although not unheard of, for events to occur after a year following device insertion. It is important that those involved with closure programmes are vigilant for the problem, because device-related erosion is associated with a significant mortality risk. Despite considerable debate, the risk factors (either patient or device) for erosion remain unclear and require further investigation. Currently available data sets have focussed largely on erosion cohorts and are unable to place these cases in appropriate context with non-erosion closure cases. What is certain is that programmes implanting these devices must take care to implant appropriately sized devices and have in place plans to ensure that patients are both well informed and can access help and advice in the event of developing symptoms.

SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

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Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

2014-01-01

We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

Prevalence and Extrinsic Risk Factors for Dental Erosion in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Mafla, Ana C; Cerón-Bastidas, Ximena A; Munoz-Ceballos, Maria E; Vallejo-Bravo, Diana C; Fajardo-Santacruz, Maria C

This manuscript examined the prevalence and extrinsic risk factors for dental erosion (DE) in early and middle adolescents in Pasto, Colombia. Dental erosion was evaluated in a random sample of 384 individuals aged 10-15 years attending three primary and high schools in this cross-sectional study. Clinical dental assessment for DE was done using O'Sullivan index. Data on general sociodemographic variables and extrinsic risks factors were obtained. Descriptive and univariate binary logistic regression analyses were performed. Dental erosion was observed in 57.3% of individuals. The univariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that frequency of drinking natural fruit juices (OR 2.670, 95% CI 1.346 - 5.295, P=0.004) and their pH (OR 2.303, 95% CI 1.292 - 4.107, P=0.004) were more associated with the odd of DE in early adolescence. However, a high SES (OR 10.360, 95% CI 3.700 - 29.010, P<0.001) and frequency of snacks with artificial lemon taste (OR 3.659, 95% CI 1.506 - 8.891, P=0.003) were highly associated with the risk of DE in middle adolescence. The results suggest that DE is a prevalent condition in adolescents living in a city in southern Colombia. The transition from early to middle adolescence implies new bio-psychosocial changes, which increase the risk for DE.

Assessing soil erosion risk using RUSLE through a GIS open source desktop and web application.

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, L; Teodoro, A C; Gonçalves, J A; Soares, D; Cunha, M

2016-06-01

Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem. An estimation of the expected soil loss by water-caused erosion can be calculated considering the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Geographical Information Systems (GIS) provide different tools to create categorical maps of soil erosion risk which help to study the risk assessment of soil loss. The objective of this study was to develop a GIS open source application (in QGIS), using the RUSLE methodology for estimating erosion rate at the watershed scale (desktop application) and provide the same application via web access (web application). The applications developed allow one to generate all the maps necessary to evaluate the soil erosion risk. Several libraries and algorithms from SEXTANTE were used to develop these applications. These applications were tested in Montalegre municipality (Portugal). The maps involved in RUSLE method-soil erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, topographic factor, cover management factor, and support practices-were created. The estimated mean value of the soil loss obtained was 220 ton km(-2) year(-1) ranged from 0.27 to 1283 ton km(-2) year(-1). The results indicated that most of the study area (80 %) is characterized by very low soil erosion level (soil erosion was higher than 962 ton km(-2) year(-1). It was also concluded that areas with high slope values and bare soil are related with high level of erosion and the higher the P and C values, the higher the soil erosion percentage. The RUSLE web and the desktop application are freely available.

Relationship between Risk Behavior for Eating Disorders and Dental Caries and Dental Erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Lorenna Mendes Temóteo; Fernandes, Liege Helena Freitas; Aragão, Amanda Silva; Aguiar, Yêska Paola Costa; Auad, Sheyla Márcia; de Castro, Ricardo Dias; Cavalcanti, Sérgio D'Ávila Lins Bezerra; Cavalcanti, Alessandro Leite

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there is an association between risk behavior for eating disorders (EDs) and dental erosion and caries. A controlled cross-sectional study was conducted in Brazil, involving 850 randomly selected female adolescents. After evaluating risk behavior for eating disorders through the Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh, 12 adolescents were identified with severe risk behavior for EDs and matched to 48 adolescents without such risk. Dental examinations, anthropometric measurements, and eating habits and oral hygiene were performed. Adolescents with high severity eating disorder condition were not more likely to show dental caries ( p = 0.329; OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 0.35-13.72) or dental erosion ( p = 0.590; OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 0.56-9.70). Adolescents with high body mass index (BMI) were five times more likely to have high severity eating disorder condition ( p = 0.031; OR = 5.1; 95% CI: 1.61-23.07). Therefore, high severity risk behavior for EDs was not significantly associated with dental caries and dental erosion. However, high BMI was a risk factor for developing eating disorders and should be an alert for individuals with this condition.

The determination of risk areas for muddy floods based on a worst-case erosion modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Saathoff, Ulfert; Schindewolf, Marcus; Annika Arévalo, Sarah

2013-04-01

Soil erosion and muddy floods are a frequently occurring hazard in the German state of Saxony, because of the topography and the high relief energy together with the high proportion of arable land. Still, the events are rather heterogeneously distributed and we do not know where damage is likely to occur. The goal of this study is to locate hot spots for the risk of muddy floods, with the objective to prevent high economic damage in future. We applied a soil erosion and deposition map of Saxony, calculated with the process based soil erosion model EROSION 3D. This map shows the potential soil erosion and transported sediment for worst case soil conditions and a 10 year rain storm event. Furthermore, a map of the current landuse in the state is used. From the landuse map, we extracted those areas that are especially vulnerable to muddy floods, like residential and industrial areas, infrastructural facilities (e.g. power plants, hospitals) and highways. In combination with the output of the soil erosion model, the amount of sediment, that enters each single landuse entity, is calculated. Based on this data, a state-wide map with classified risks is created. The results are furthermore used to identify the risk of muddy floods for each single municipality in Saxony. The results are evaluated with data of real occurred muddy flood events with documented locations during the period between 2000 and 2010. Additionally, plausibility tests are performed for selected areas (examination of landuse, topography and soil). The results prove to be plausible and most of the documented events can be explained by the modelled risk map. The created map can be used by different institutions like city and traffic planners, to estimate the risk of muddy flood occurrence at specific locations. Furthermore, the risk map can serve insurance companies to evaluate the insurance risk of a building. To make them easily accessible, the risk map will be published online via a web GIS

Comparison of two occurrence risk assessment methods for collapse gully erosion ——A case study in Guangdong province

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, K.; Cheng, D. B.; He, J. J.; Zhao, Y. L.

2018-02-01

Collapse gully erosion is a specific type of soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, and early warning and prevention of the occurrence of collapse gully erosion is very important. Based on the idea of risk assessment, this research, taking Guangdong province as an example, adopt the information acquisition analysis and the logistic regression analysis, to discuss the feasibility for collapse gully erosion risk assessment in regional scale, and compare the applicability of the different risk assessment methods. The results show that in the Guangdong province, the risk degree of collapse gully erosion occurrence is high in northeastern and western area, and relatively low in southwestern and central part. The comparing analysis of the different risk assessment methods on collapse gully also indicated that the risk distribution patterns from the different methods were basically consistent. However, the accuracy of risk map from the information acquisition analysis method was slightly better than that from the logistic regression analysis method.

Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Pásztor

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

2016-05-01

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in Uganda

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Fidele Karamage

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Land use without adequate soil erosion control measures is continuously increasing the risk of soil erosion by water mainly in developing tropical countries. These countries are prone to environmental disturbance due to high population growth and high rainfall intensity. The aim of this study is to assess the state of soil erosion by water in Uganda at national and district levels, for various land cover and land use (LCLU types, in protected areas as well to predict the impact of support practices on soil loss reduction. Predictions obtained using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model indicated that the mean rate of soil loss risk in Uganda’s erosion‐prone lands was 3.2 t∙ha−1∙y−1, resulting in a total annual soil loss of about 62 million tons in 2014. About 39% of the country’s erosion‐prone lands were comprised of unsustainable mean soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Out of 112 districts in Uganda, 66 districts were found to have unsustainable estimated soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Six districts in Uganda were found to have mean annual soil loss rates of >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Bududa (46.3 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Kasese (37.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bundibugyo (28.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bulambuli (20.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Sironko (14.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and Kotido (12.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Among the LCLU types, the highest soil loss rates of 11 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and 10.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 were found in moderate natural forest and dense natural forest, respectively, mainly due to their locations in highland areas characterized by steep slopes ranging between 16% to 21% and their high rainfall intensity, ranging from 1255 mm∙y−1 to 1292 mm∙y−1. Only five protected areas in Uganda were found to have high mean estimated mean soil loss rates >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Rwenzori Mountains (142.94 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Mount Elgon (33.81 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bokora corridor (12.13 t∙ha−1∙y−1

Best management practices to reduce and prevent water pollution with herbicides from run-off and erosion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gehring, Klaus

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The natural phenomenon of run-off and erosion lead to unpreventable pesticide water pollution in case of extreme weather conditions. In this relationship the use of herbicides involves a higher risk than other pesticides because of the specific terms of application. Directive 2009/128/EC for the sustainable use of pesticides aspires to enhanced water protection. German national action plan contains quantitative objectives which require strong reduction of water pollution by run-off and erosion of pesticides and accordingly herbicides. The European TOPPS prowadis project developed a consolidated and basic diagnosis concept for the first time to determine the field specific run-off risk. Compatible mitigation measures were linked to specific risk scenarios. Risk diagnosis and suitable mitigation measures determine best management practices for the prevention of run-off and erosion. Different new diagnosis methods and the implementation are presented. Further documents and information are available on the web [http://www.topps-life.org/].

Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fidele Karamage

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Land conversion to cropland is one of the major causes of severe soil erosion in Africa. This study assesses the current cropland extent and the related soil erosion risk in Rwanda, a country that experienced the most rapid population growth and cropland expansion in Africa over the last decade. The land cover land use (LCLU map of Rwanda in 2015 was developed using Landsat-8 imagery. Based on the obtained LCLU map and the spatial datasets of precipitation, soil properties and elevation, the soil erosion rate of Rwanda was assessed at 30-m spatial resolution, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model. According to the results, the mean soil erosion rate was 250 t·ha−1·a−1 over the entire country, with a total soil loss rate of approximately 595 million tons per year. The mean soil erosion rate over cropland, which occupied 56% of the national land area, was estimated at 421 t·ha−1·a−1 and was responsible for about 95% of the national soil loss. About 24% of the croplands in Rwanda had a soil erosion rate larger than 300 t·ha−1·a−1, indicating their unsuitability for cultivation. With a mean soil erosion rate of 1642 t·ha−1·a−1, these unsuitable croplands were responsible for 90% of the national soil loss. Most of the unsuitable croplands are distributed in the Congo Nile Ridge, Volcanic Range mountain areas in the west and the Buberuka highlands in the north, regions characterized by steep slopes (>30% and strong rainfall. Soil conservation practices, such as the terracing cultivation method, are paramount to preserve the soil. According to our assessment, terracing alone could reduce the mean cropland soil erosion rate and the national soil loss by 79% and 75%, respectively. After terracing, only a small proportion of 7.6% of the current croplands would still be exposed to extreme soil erosion with a rate >300 t·ha−1·a−1. These irremediable cropland areas should be returned to mountain forest to

Application of SEAGIS model for assessing risks of erosion in the watershed of Lake hills of M'Richet el Anze (Bargou, Siliana)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Touihri, Nouha

2013-01-01

Water erosion is a major problem in the world; it results from the agricultural intensification, the climatic variations, the nature and use of soil. The study of erosion risk requires the understanding the factor from which he is influenced. So it facilitates the decision-making regarding the proper management and restoration of soils. Several studies on erosion in Tunisia have been made. The present study aims to develop an easy method, based on the integration of map data (administrative boundaries, soil layers) and statistical data (rainfall) in a GIS for the identification and mapping of vulnerable soils to erosion. The methodology used, was to retain and study the parameters of the relevant factors influencing the phenomenon (the erosivite of rainfall, the topographic index, the occupation of grounds and the soil erodibility). Then after a consolidation of individual parameters of these different factors, they have been folded under the ArcView GIS 3.2a as a model of vulnerability of soils previously established. The model established by a tree of entrance. He allows the crossing of five factors(mailmen) (the erosivite of the rain (R), pedological card(map) ( K ), card(map) of activity(occupation) of ground ( C ), digital model of the ground ( MNT), the factor(mailman) of arrangement(development) ( P )) in the tree of entered and this led to the realization of the erosion hazard map. Then the result of the erosion hazard is crossed to determine the soil loss map. The results were used to locate five classes of vulnerabilities of soil erosion (very low, low, medium, high and very high). These results are used to simulate water conservation management scenarios end the fight against erosion.

Prevalence and risk factors for dental erosion among 11- to 14-year-old school children in South India.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Sandeep; Acharya, Shashidhar; Mishra, Prashant; Debnath, Nitai; Vasthare, Ramprasad

2013-01-01

This cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and severity of dental erosion and to determine the potential risk factors for dental erosion among 11- to 14-year-old school children in South India. The total sample size for the study was 605, of which 303 school children were from private schools and 302 from public schools. A questionnaire was designed to record information about socio-demographic characteristics, oral hygiene practices, dietary habits and risk factors for dental erosion. Chi square test, bivariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were performed to analyse the data. The children who consumed lemon several times a day (OR = 13.41, P dental erosion. The overall prevalence of dental erosion was found to be low (8.9%). Erosion was found to be greater in posterior teeth (65.6%) than anterior teeth (34.4%). Loss of enamel only with loss of surface contour was observed in most (94.8%) of the cases. The prevalence of dental erosion was found to be low in school children. Private school children were affected more by dental erosion. Frequency of lemon consumption and consumption of carbonated drinks were identified as risk factors.

Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hosmer, Hilary

2000-01-01

.... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

Occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion in the population of young adults in Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Asmyhr, Øyvind; Grytten, Jostein; Holst, Dorthe

2012-10-01

The aim of this study was to describe the occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion for a group of young adults who are particularly susceptible to erosion. Another aim was to describe the awareness of erosion and distribution of risk factors according to the educational background of the parents. The sample (n = 2004 individuals) was randomly drawn from the population of 19-20-year-old Norwegians. The data were collected using telephone interviews. We measured awareness about erosion using the following question: 'Have you ever heard about dental erosion?' We obtained information about the frequency of intake of the following risk factors: soft drinks with and without sugar, and juice. Soft drinks with sugar included lemonade (Coca-Cola, Solo, Pepsi, Mozell and ice tea) and sport drinks (XL1, Maxim). Soft drinks without sugar included Cola light, Zero, PepsiMax, Solo light and ice tea light. Juice included orange, grapefruit, apple and kiwi juice. The parents' level of education was based on the Norwegian school system, which has three levels: compulsory schooling (10 years), upper secondary school education (up to 13 years) and university/college education. The data were analysed using logistic regressions analyses. Awareness of erosion was high - 93.5% of respondents were aware of the problem. The majority of respondents believed that erosion can be prevented - altogether 84.9%. They also believed that soft drinks with and without sugar are equally important for the development of erosion. 17.5% of respondents drank soft drinks with sugar daily or several times a day. The corresponding figures for soft drinks without sugar and juice were 4.9% and 34.1%, respectively. Young adults with mothers with high education drank soft drinks both with and without sugar less frequently than those who had mothers with low education. This pattern was the opposite for juice. Consumption of soft drinks and juice is high, even though awareness and knowledge about the causes

Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oduro Afriyie, K.

1995-10-01

Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Estimation of soil erosion risk within an important agricultural sub-watershed in Bursa, Turkey, in relation to rapid urbanization.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul

2015-07-01

This paper integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS model to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss and identify areas of soil erosion risk in the Uluabat sub-watershed, an important agricultural site in Bursa Province, Turkey. The total soil loss from water erosion was 473,274 Mg year(-1). Accordingly, 60.3% of the surveyed area was classified into a very low erosion risk class while 25.7% was found to be in high and severe erosion risk classes. Soil loss had a close relationship with land use and topography. The most severe erosion risk typically occurs on ridges and steep slopes where agriculture, degraded forest, and shrubs are the main land uses and cover types. Another goal of this study was to use GIS to reveal the multi-year urbanization status caused by rapid urbanization that constitutes another soil erosion risk in this area. Urbanization has increased by 57.7% and the most areal change was determined in class I lands at a rate of 80% over 25 years. Urbanization was identified as one of the causes of excessive soil loss in the study area.

Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

CERN Document Server

Solojentsev, E D

2005-01-01

In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

Risk behaviors related to eating disorders in adolescents and its association with dental erosion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniella Fagundes SOUTO

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction The overvaluation of thinness as a standard of beauty has contributed to the development of eating disorders and has mainly affected adolescents and young adults. Objective To evaluate the prevalence of risk behaviors for eating disorders and their association with dental erosion in adolescents. Material and method This is a cross-sectional observational epidemiological study. The sample consisted of 278 adolescents aged 12 to 19 years, enrolled in a State School in Campinas - SP. Two questionnaires were used for the data collection on eating disorders: Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh and Eating Attitudes Test -26. The presence of erosion was evaluated by calibrated examiners. Result The mean age of the sample was 14.8 years. The prevalence of mean risk for bulimia in the sample was 43.2% (95% CI: 37.3%-49.0% and the prevalence of adolescents with a probability of developing bulimia was 53.2% (95% CI: 47.4%-59.1%. Of the total, 11.9% (95% CI: 8.1%-15.7% showed results suggestive of anorexia. Among women, 66.9% were classified as probability developing bulimia, whereas in men the prevalence was 39.0%. As for dental erosion, only 1.1% of the sample presented erosion. Conclusion The study pointed to large number of adolescents with risk behaviors for eating disorders but no association was found with dental erosion due to low prevalence.

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riitta Molarius

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

Regional soil erosion assessment in Slovakia using modelling and farmer's participation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kenderessy, Pavol; Veihe, Anita

with cereals, sunflowers and corn and is characterised by poor cultivation practices and use of fertilizers leading to land degradation. As a first step, the initial raster-based modelling of soil loss and deposition has provided acceptable and realistic values. The predicted spatial patterns of erosion...... for erosion risk assessments at the landscape scale in Slovakia using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods for assessing spatial prediction patterns. The model was set up for the Paríž catchment (239.93 km2) in south-western Slovakia. The area has been intensively cultivated primarily...... are now being identified using farmer participation to ensure that the ‘correct’ hot spot areas are being identified. In the end, scenarios will be set up to assess the effect of farming practices and/or conservation measures on soil erosion rates in the area....

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

A universal meteorological method to identify potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Středová Hana

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The climate of Central Europe, mainly winter seasons with no snow cover at lower altitudes and a spring drought as well, might cause erosion events on heavy-textured soils. The aim of this paper is to define a universal method to identify the potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils. The categorization of potential wind erosion risk due to meteorological conditions is based on: (i an evaluation of the number of freeze-thaw episodes forming bare soil surfaces during the cold period of year; and (ii, an evaluation of the number of days with wet soil surfaces during the cold period of year. In the period 2001–2012 (from November to March, episodes with temperature changes from positive to negative and vice versa (thaw-freeze and freeze-thaw cycles and the effects of wet soil surfaces in connection with aggregate disintegration, are identified. The data are spatially interpolated by GIS tools for areas in the Czech Republic with heavy-textured soils. Blending critical categories is used to locate potential risks. The level of risk is divided into six classes. Those areas identified as potentially most vulnerable are the same localities where the highest number of erosive episodes on heavy-textured soils was documented.

Recent and future rainfall erosivity on the territory of the Czech Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Krasa, Josef; Stredova, Hana; Stepanek, Petr; Hanel, Martin; Dostal, Tomas; Novotny, Ivan

2015-04-01

Water erosion is a main factor of degradation of soils used for agriculture in the Czech Republic. For landscape conservation purposes the soil erosion risk is defined here mostly by USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Within USLE the precipitation impact on erosion is a function of rainfall kinetic energy and intensity represented by R-factor. In the Czech Republic historically and recently several research teams have analyzed rainfall data to assess R-factor. Till now not many European countries have performed detailed spatially distributed analyses of rain erosivities. Most studies use only simplified methods based on long-term rainfall averages or databases of only several station-datasets. The most recent study on rainfall erosivity spatial distribution over the Czech Republic was based on digital rain gauge data from automatic stations of the Czech Hydrometeorogical Institute. The erosive rains were derived from continuous 1 minute step 10-year rainfall data (2003-2012) from 245 stations. Based on the research recent annual R-factor values in the stations vary from 37 to 239 [N.h-1] (values over 100 are located in mountain regions with minimum of agricultural land). Average value is 69 [N.h-1.year-1]. For the Czech Republic the future prediction is based on 10km resolution ALADIN/CZ regional climate model. Within the EU FP6 project CECILIA it was coupled with GCM ARPEGE to provide a projection of future climate in two time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. Daily precipitation volumes and percentiles of maximal events allowed authors to develop R-factor maps of present and future scenarios. Based on the analyses we can conclude that average value for the whole territory of the Czech Republic will remain close to 70 [N.h-1.year-1] or even decrease for 2071-2100, but we can expect significant changes (30-40 % rise or decrease) for several large agricultural regions (eg. Southern Moravia). These changes will have impact

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Science.gov (United States)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Dynamic Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk Using Landsat TM and HJ Satellite Data in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pengpeng Han

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Danjiangkou reservoir area is the main water source and the submerged area of the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China. Soil erosion is a factor that significantly influences the quality and transfer of water from the Danjiangkou reservoir. The objective of this study is to assess the water erosion (rill and sheet erosion risk and dynamic change trend of spatial distribution in erosion status and intensity between 2004 and 2010 in the Danjiangkou reservoir area using a multicriteria evaluation method.The multicriteria evaluation method synthesizes the vegetation fraction cover, slope gradient, and land use. Based on the rules and erosion risk assessment results of the study area in 2004 and 2010, the research obtained the conservation priority map. This study result shows an improvement in erosion status of the study area, the eroded area decreased from 32.1% in 2004 to 25.43% in 2010. The unchanged regions dominated the study area and that the total area of improvement grade erosion was larger than that of deterioration grade erosion. The severe, more severe, and extremely severe areas decreased by 4.71%, 2.28%, and 0.61% of the total study area, respectively. The percentages of regions where erosion grade transformed from extremely severe to slight, light and moderate were 0.18%, 0.02%, and 0.30%, respectively. However, a deteriorated region with a 2,897.60 km2 area was still observed. This area cannot be ignored in the determination of a general governance scheme. The top two conservation priority levels cover almost all regions with severe erosion and prominent increase in erosion risk, accounting for 7.31% of the study area. The study results can assist government agencies in decision making for determining erosion control areas, starting regulation projects, and making soil conservation measures.

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro J. Back

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The Gumbel-Chow distribution was adequate for the estimation of all studied variables. The mean annual erosivity corresponds to the return period of 2.25 years. The data series of the annual maximum individual rainfall erosivity coefficients varied from 47 to 50%.

Dental erosion prevalence and associated risk indicators among preschool children in Athens, Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Mantonanaki, Magdalini; Koletsi-Kounari, Haroula; Mamai-Homata, Eleni; Papaioannou, William

2013-03-01

The aims of the study were to investigate dental erosion prevalence, distribution and severity in Greek preschool children attending public kindergartens in the prefecture of Attica, Greece and to determine the effect of dental caries, oral hygiene level, socio-economic factors, dental behavior, erosion related medication and chronic illness. A random and stratified sample of 605 Greek preschool children was clinically examined for dental erosion using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination Index (ΒΕWE). Dental caries (dmfs) and Simplified Debris Index were also recorded. The data concerning possible risk indicators were derived by a questionnaire. Zero-inflated Poisson regression was generated to test the predictive effects of the independent variables on dental erosion. The prevalence of dental erosion was 78.8 %, and the mean and SE of BEWE index was 3.64 ± 0.15. High monthly family income was positively related to ΒΕWE cumulative scores [RR = 1.204 (1.016-1.427)], while high maternal education level [RR = 0.872 (0.771-0.986)] and poor oral hygiene level [DI-s, RR = 0.584 (0.450-0.756)] showed a negative association. Dental erosion is a common oral disease in Greek preschool children in Attica, related to oral hygiene and socio-economic factors. Programs aimed at erosion prevention should begin at an early age for all children.

Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Soil erosion risk assessment using interviews, empirical soil erosion modeling (RUSLE) and fallout radionuclides in a volcanic crater lake watershed subjected to land use change, western Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

De Crop, Wannes; Ryken, Nick; Tomma Okuonzia, Judith; Van Ranst, Eric; Baert, Geert; Boeckx, Pascal; Verschuren, Dirk; Verdoodt, Ann

2017-04-01

Population pressure results in conversion of natural vegetation to cropland within the western Ugandan crater lake watersheds. These watersheds however are particularly prone to soil degradation and erosion because of the high rainfall intensity and steep topography. Increased soil erosion losses expose the aquatic ecosystems to excessive nutrient loading. In this study, the Katinda crater lake watershed, which is already heavily impacted by agricultural land use, was selected for an explorative study on its (top)soil characteristics - given the general lack of data on soils within these watersheds - as well as an assessment of soil erosion risks. Using group discussions and structured interviews, the local land users' perceptions on land use, soil quality, soil erosion and lake ecology were compiled. Datasets on rainfall, topsoil characteristics, slope gradient and length, and land use were collected. Subsequently a RUSLE erosion model was run. Results from this empirical erosion modeling approach were validated against soil erosion estimates based on 137Cs measurements.

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

Science.gov (United States)

Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

2009-07-01

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

Association between dental erosion and possible risk factors: A hospital-based study in gastroesophageal reflux disease patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vamsi Krishna Reddy

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD is a condition, with a prevalence of up to 10–20% in the general population. GERD may involve damage to the oral cavity, and dental erosion may occur with a higher frequency. Aim: To estimate the prevalence of dental erosion in GERD patients and to evaluate the association between dental erosion and possible risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in the Sanjay Gandhi Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow among patients attending outpatient department between June and August 2014. The study group comprised 91 subjects with GERD and 114 subjects without GERD. Information regarding symptoms of GERD, medicines, any chronic disease, and dietary habits were recorded. Dental examination was done to assess the presence or absence of dental erosions and its severity was measured using O'Sullivan Index (2000. Statistical analysis was done using Mann–Whitney U-test and Kruskal–Wallis test. Results: Of 91 GERD patients, 87 (95.6% patients had dental erosion. In both groups, association between frequent intake of fruit juice, carbonated drinks, milk, yoghurt, fruits, and tea/coffee with occurrence of dental erosion were statistically significant (P < 0.05. In GERD patients, association between intake of milk and occurrence of dental erosion were statistically significant (P < 0.05. Association of medication with dental erosion was found to be statistically significant (P < 0.05. Chronic diseases like diabetes and asthma were also found to be statistically significant with dental erosion (P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study showed that GERD patients were at increased risk of developing dental erosion compared to controls.

Evaluating of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss tolerance and its effects on erosion risk in the carbonate areas of southern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Soil loss tolerance (T value is one of the criteria in determining the necessity of erosion control measures and ecological restoration strategy. However, the validity of this criterion in subtropical karst regions is strongly disputed. In this study, T value is calculated based on soil formation rate by using a digital distribution map of carbonate rock assemblage types. Results indicated a spatial heterogeneity and diversity in soil loss tolerance. Instead of only one criterion, a minimum of three criteria should be considered when investigating the carbonate areas of southern China because the one region, one T value concept may not be applicable to this region. T value is proportionate to the amount of argillaceous material, which determines the surface soil thickness of the formations in homogenous carbonate rock areas. Homogenous carbonate rock, carbonate rock intercalated with clastic rock areas and carbonate/clastic rock alternation areas have T values of 20, 50 and 100 t/(km2 a, and they are extremely, severely and moderately sensitive to soil erosion. Karst rocky desertification (KRD is defined as extreme soil erosion and reflects the risks of erosion. Thus, the relationship between T value and erosion risk is determined using KRD as a parameter. The existence of KRD land is unrelated to the T value, although this parameter indicates erosion sensitivity. Erosion risk is strongly dependent on the relationship between real soil loss (RL and T value rather than on either erosion intensity or the T value itself. If RL > > T, then the erosion risk is high despite of a low RL. Conversely, if T > > RL, then the soil is safe although RL is high. Overall, these findings may clarify the heterogeneity of T value and its effect on erosion risk in a karst environment.

Minimizing risk associated with shallow burial of waste in semiarid ecosystems: Erosion and vegetation dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breshears, D.D.; Martens, S.N.; Nyhan, J.W.; Springer, E.P.; Wilcox, B.P.

1994-01-01

Numerous regulations govern the disposal of low-level radioactive and hazardous waste by burial in shallow pits. The overall goal of these regulations is to reduce the risk to humans and components of the ecosystem for 500 to 1 000 years. Erosional loss of the soil profile covering waste and contamination of groundwater by leachate are two pathways that influence human and ecological risks. Screening calculations for a waste site in a pinyon-juniper woodland at Los Alamos National Laboratory predict the entire 2 m cover of a waste site could be lost by erosion in less than 500 years. In contrast, less than 0.001% of the waste would reach groundwater by leachate. Predicted erosion rates depend highly on plant cover. The boundary between ponderosa pine forest and pinyon-juniper woodland has shifted more than 1 km in less than 50 years in the Los Alamos region and additional boundary shifts have been hypothesized in conjunction with global warming. High erosion rates (> 0.2 cm per year) have been measured in these transition zones. In concert, these results suggest that risk associated with erosional loss of the waste site cover may greatly exceed risks associated with groundwater contamination in semiarid ecosystems

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

2018-01-01

Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

Farmers' identification of erosion indicators and related erosion damage in the Central Highlands of Kenya

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterk, G.; Okoba, B.O.

2006-01-01

Most soil and water conservation planning approaches rely on empirical assessment methods and hardly consider farmers' knowledge of soil erosion processes. Farmers' knowledge of on-site erosion indicators could be useful in assessing the site-specific erosion risk before planning any conservation

Spatial distribution of water erosion risk in a watershed with eucalyptus and Atlantic Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junior Cesar Avanzi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The process of water erosion occurs in watersheds throughout the world and it is strongly affected by anthropogenic influences. Thus, the knowledge of these processes is extremely necessary for planning of conservation efforts. This study was performed in an experimental forested watershed in order to predict the average potential annual soil loss by water erosion using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE and a Geographic Information System (GIS, and then compared with soil loss tolerance. All the USLE factors were generated in a distributed approach employing a GIS tool. The layers were multiplied in the GIS framework in order to predict soil erosion rates. Results showed that the average soil loss was 6.2 Mg ha-1 yr-1. Relative to soil loss tolerance, 83% of the area had an erosion rate lesser than the tolerable value. According to soil loss classes, 49% of the watershed had erosion less than 2.5 Mg ha-1 yr-1. However, about 8.7% of the watershed had erosion rates greater than 15 Mg ha-1 yr-1, being mainly related to Plinthosol soil class and roads, thus requiring special attention for the improvement of sustainable management practices for such areas. Eucalyptus cultivation was found to have soil loss greater than Atlantic Forest. Thus, an effort should be made to bring the erosion rates closer to the native forest. Implementation of the USLE model in a GIS framework was found to be a simple and useful tool for predicting the spatial variation of soil erosion risk and identifying critical areas for conservation efforts.

Modeling of technical soil-erosion control measures and its impact on soil erosion off-site effects within urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Dostal, Tomas; Devaty, Jan

2013-04-01

The paper presents results of surface runoff, soil erosion and sediment transport modeling using Erosion 3D software - physically based mathematical simulation model, event oriented, fully distributed. Various methods to simulate technical soil-erosion conservation measures were tested, using alternative digital elevation models of different precision and resolution. Ditches and baulks were simulated by three different approaches, (i) by change of the land-cover parameters to increase infiltration and decrease flow velocity, (ii) by change of the land-cover parameters to completely infiltrate the surface runoff and (iii) by adjusting the height of the digital elevation model by "burning in" the channels of the ditches. Results show advantages and disadvantages of each approach and conclude suitable methods for combinations of particular digital elevation model and purpose of the simulations. Further on a set of simulations was carried out to model situations before and after technical soil-erosion conservation measures application within a small catchment of 4 km2. These simulations were focused on quantitative and qualitative assessment of technical soil-erosion control measures impact on soil erosion off-site effects within urban areas located downstream of intensively used agricultural fields. The scenarios were built upon a raster digital elevation model with spatial resolution of 3 meters derived from LiDAR 5G vector point elevation data. Use of this high-resolution elevation model allowed simulating the technical soil-erosion control measures by direct terrain elevation adjustment. Also the structures within the settlements were emulated by direct change in the elevation of the terrain model. The buildings were lifted up to simulate complicated flow behavior of the surface runoff within urban areas, using approach of Arévalo (Arévalo, 2011) but focusing on the use of commonly available data without extensive detailed editing. Application of the technical

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-01-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-07-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this

Dental erosion, prevalence and risk factors among a group of adolescents in Stockholm County.

Science.gov (United States)

Skalsky Jarkander, M; Grindefjord, M; Carlstedt, K

2018-02-01

To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of dental erosion (DE) among a group of adolescents in Stockholm County. This cross sectional cohort study was conducted at three clinics of the Public Dental Service in Stockholm County. Fifteen and 17 year old adolescents (1335) who scheduled their regular dental health examination were asked to participate. After drop-outs a sample of 1071 individuals, 547 males and 524 females were enrolled in the study. Presence of erosive wear was diagnosed (yes/no) on marker teeth by trained dentists/dental hygienists and photographs were taken. The adolescents answered a questionnaire regarding oral symptoms, dietary and behavioural factors. Two calibrated specialist dentists performed evaluation of the photographs for severity of DE using a modified version of the Simplified Erosion Partial Recording System (SEPRS). DE was clinically diagnosed in 28.3% of 15 years old and 34.3% of 17 years old. Severe erosive wear (grade 3 and 4 according to SEPRS) was found in 18.3% of the adolescents based upon the intra-oral photographs. DE was more prevalent and severe among males than females. Clinically diagnosed erosive lesions correlated significantly with soft drink consumption (p < 0.001), the use of juice or sport drinks as a thirst quencher after exercise (p = 0.006) and tooth hypersensitivity when eating and drinking (p = 0.012). Furthermore, self-assessed gastric reflux was a factor strongly associated with DE (p < 0.001). The study indicated that DE was common among adolescents in Stockholm County and associated with both internal and external risk factors.

Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Preventing erosion at pipeline crossings of watercourses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawatsky, L.; Arnold, G.

1997-01-01

Watercourses are naturally vulnerable to erosion but the risk is particularly acute after sub-soil and armour materials have been disturbed by trenching and backfilling during construction. Various types of erosion (river scour, river bed, river channel bed and river bank ) and the progressive removal of pipeline cover resulting from erosion were discussed. Methods of estimating the risk of progressive erosion, river avulsions and beaver dam scour, and methods of mitigating erosion at pipeline crossings such as deep burial, proper siting, conventional armouring, and a combination of bank toe protection, and upper bank vegetation cover, were described

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in Central Mexico

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Santos Martínez-Santiago

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Although water-eroded soil (WES resulting from human activities has been recognized as the leading global cause of land degradation, the soil erosion risks from climate change are not clear. Studies have reported that WES is the second most significant cause of soil loss in Mexico, and its future trajectory has not been sufficiently evaluated. The aims of this study are to 1 determine the impacts of climate change on WES and its distribution for the State of Aguascalientes, Mexico, and to 2 compare the present and future soil loss rates for the study unit (SU. The State of Aguascalientes is located in the “Region del Bajio.” The impact of climate change on WES was evaluated using the near-future divided world scenario (A2 presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 18 weather stations were downscaled to model historic laminar water erosion (HLWE and changes therein in the A2 near-future scenario for 2010–2039 (LWEScA2. Due to future changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR levels, a change in the LWEScA2 of between 1.6 and 8.9% could result in average soil losses up to 475.4 t ha-1 yr-1, representing a loss of slightly more than a 30-mm layer of mountain soil per year. The risk zones, classified as class 4 for LWE, are located to western of the State in part of municipalities of Calvillo, Jesus María, San José de Gracia y Cosio, where there are typical hills and falls with soil very sensitive to rain erosion.

Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

Science.gov (United States)

Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

2014-06-01

In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

Assessment and management of dental erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojie; Lussi, Adrian

2010-07-01

Studies have shown a growing trend toward increasing prevalence of dental erosion, associated with the declining prevalence of caries disease in industrialized countries. Erosion is an irreversible chemical process that results in tooth substance loss and leaves teeth susceptible to damage as a result of wear over the course of an individual's lifetime. Therefore, early diagnosis and adequate prevention are essential to minimize the risk of tooth erosion. Clinical appearance is the most important sign to be used to diagnose erosion. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) is a simple method to fulfill this task. The determination of a variety of risk and protective factors (patient-dependent and nutrition-dependent factors) as well as their interplay are necessary to initiate preventive measures tailored to the individual. When tooth loss caused by erosive wear reaches a certain level, oral rehabilitation becomes necessary. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

RUNOFF AND EROSION IN DIFFERENT (AGRO CLIMATOLOGICAL ZONES OF LATIN AMERICA AND PROPOSALS FOR SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION SCENARIOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald Gabriels

2005-05-01

Full Text Available Steeplands, when cleared from forests, are susceptible to erosion by rainfall and are prone toland degradation and desertification processes.The dominant factors affecting those erosion processes and hence the resulting runoff and soillosses are the aggressiveness of the rainfall during the successive plant growth stages, the soilcover-management, but also the topography (slope length and slope steepness. Depending onthe type of (agro climatological zone, the runoff water should either be limited and controlled(excess of water or should be enhanced and collected from the slope on the downslopecropping area if water is short (negative soil water balance.Examples are given of practical applications in Ecuador where alternative soil conservationscenarios are proposed in maize cultivation in small fields on steep slopes. Adding peas andbarley in the rotation of maize and beans resulted only in a slight decrease of the soil losses.Subdividing the fields into smaller parcels proved to give the best reduction in soil loss.Because the average slope steepness is high, erosion control measures such as contourploughing and strip cropping have only small effects.Erosion and its effect on productivity of a sorghum -livestock farming system are assessed onfour different areas in Venezuela with different levels of erosion. A Productivity Index (PIand an Erosion Risk Index (ERI were used to classify the lands for soil conservationpriorities and for alternative land uses. Intensive agriculture can be applied on slightly erodedsoil, whereas severely eroded soil can be used with special crops or agro-forestry. Semiintensiveagriculture is possible on moderately eroded soil.Reforestation of drylands in Chili requires understanding of the infiltration/runoff process inorder to determine dimensions of water harvesting systems. Infiltration processes in semi-aridregions of Chile were evaluated, using rainfall experiments and constant-head infiltrationmeasurements

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

Science.gov (United States)

Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

2016-01-01

Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

The prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ping; Lin, Huan Cai; Chen, Jian Hong; Liang, Huan You

2010-08-12

Dental erosion has been investigated in developed and developing countries and the prevalence varies considerably in different countries, geographic locations, and age groups. With the lifestyle of the Chinese people changing significantly over the decades, dental erosion has begun to receive more attention. However, the information about dental erosion in China is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Guangzhou, Southern China. This cross-sectional survey was performed by two trained, calibrated examiners. A stratified random sample of 12-13-year-old children (774 boys and 725 girls) from 10 schools was examined for dental erosion using the diagnostic criteria of Eccles and the index of O'Sullivan was applied to record the distribution, severity, and amount of the lesions. Data on the socio-economic status, health behaviours, and general health involved in the etiology of dental erosion were obtained from a self-completed questionnaire. The analyses were performed using SPSS software. At least one tooth surface with signs of erosion was found in 416 children (27.3%). The most frequently affected teeth were the central incisors (upper central incisors, 16.3% and 15.9%; lower central incisors, 17.4% and 14.8%). The most frequently affected surface was the incisal or occlusal edge (43.2%). The loss of enamel contour was present in 54.6% of the tooth surfaces with erosion. Of the affected tooth surfaces, 69.3% had greater than one-half of the tooth surface was affected. The results from logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the children who were female, consumed carbonated drinks once a week or more, and those whose mothers were educated to the primary level tended to have more dental erosion. Dental erosion in 12-13-year-old Chinese school children is becoming a significant problem. A strategy of offering preventive care, including more campaigns

Mapping Erosion Risk in California's Rangelands Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)

Science.gov (United States)

Salls, W. B.; O'Geen, T. T.

2015-12-01

Soil loss constitutes a multi-faceted problem for agriculture: in addition to reducing soil fertility and crop yield, it compromises downstream water quality. Sediment itself is a major issue for aquatic ecosystems, but also serves as a vector for transporting nutrients, pesticides, and pathogens. Rangelands are thought to be a contributor to water quality degradation in California, particularly in the northern Coast Range. Though total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) have been imposed in some watersheds, and countless rangeland water quality outreach activities have been conducted, the connection between grazing intensity recommendations and changes in water quality is poorly understood at the state level. This disconnect gives rise to poorly informed regulations and discourages adoption of best management practices by ranchers. By applying the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) at a statewide scale, we highlighted areas most prone to erosion. We also investigated how two different grazing intensity scenarios affect modeled soil loss. Geospatial data layers representing the USLE parameters—rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, and cover—were overlaid to model annual soil loss. Monitored suspended sediment data from a small North Coast watershed with grazing as the predominant land use was used to validate the model. Modeled soil loss values were nearly one order of magnitude higher than monitored values; average soil loss feeding the downstream-most site was modeled at 0.329 t ha-1 yr-1, whereas storm-derived sediment passing the site over two years was calculated to be 0.037 t ha-1 yr-1. This discrepancy may stem from the fact that the USLE models detached sediment, whereas stream monitoring reflects sediment detached and subsequently transported to the waterway. Preliminary findings from the statewide map support the concern that the North Coast is particularly at risk given its combination of intense rain, erodible soils, and

Erosion and erosion-corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isomoto, Yoshinori

2008-01-01

It is very difficult to interpret the technical term of erosion-corrosion' which is sometimes encountered in piping systems of power plants, because of complicated mechanisms and several confusing definitions of erosion-corrosion phenomena. 'FAC (flow accelerated corrosion)' is recently introduced as wall thinning of materials in power plant systems, as a representative of 'erosion-corrosion'. FAC is, however, not necessarily well understood and compared with erosion-corrosion. This paper describes firstly the origin, definition and fundamental understandings of erosion and erosion-corrosion, in order to reconsider and reconfirm the phenomena of erosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC. Next, typical mapping of erosion, corrosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC are introduced in flow velocity and environmental corrosiveness axes. The concept of damage rate in erosion-corrosion is finally discussed, connecting dissolution rate, mass transfer of metal ions in a metal oxide film and film growth. (author)

Estimating erosion in a riverine watershed: Bayou Liberty-Tchefuncta River in Louisiana.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, August; Gunter, James T; Regens, James L

2003-01-01

GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Sheet erosion from agricultural, forest and urban lands may increase stream sediment loads as well as transport other pollutants that adversely affect water quality, reduce agricultural and forest production, and increase infrastructure maintenance costs. This study uses spatial analysis techniques and a numerical modeling approach to predict areas with the greatest sheet erosion potential given different soils disturbance scenarios. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were used to estimate sheet erosion from 0.64 ha parcels of land within the watershed. The Soil Survey of St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana was digitized, required soil attributes entered into the GIS database, and slope factors determined for each 80 x 80 meter parcel in the watershed. The GIS/USLE model used series-specific erosion K factors, a rainfall factor of 89, and a GIS database of scenario-driven cropping and erosion control practice factors to estimate potential soil loss due to sheet erosion. A general trend of increased potential sheet erosion occurred for all land use categories (urban, agriculture/grasslands, forests) as soil disturbance increases from cropping, logging and construction activities. Modeling indicated that rapidly growing urban areas have the greatest potential for sheet erosion. Evergreen and mixed forests (production forest) had lower sheet erosion potentials; with deciduous forests (mostly riparian) having the least sheet erosion potential. Erosion estimates from construction activities may be overestimated because of the value chosen for the erosion control practice factor. This study illustrates the ease with which GIS can be integrated with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to identify areas with high sheet erosion potential for large scale management and policy decision making. The GIS/USLE modeling approach used in this study offers a quick and inexpensive tool for estimating sheet erosion within

Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

2015-09-01

This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

Sports drink consumption and dental erosion among amateur runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Antunes, Leonardo S; Veiga, Lais; Nery, Victor S; Nery, Caio C; Antunes, Lívia A

2017-01-01

This cross-sectional study assessed the prevalence and potential risk factors for dental erosion in amateur athletes at running events. After a sample calculation, 108 runners from the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were selected and examined for dental wear by a single trained and calibrated evaluator (kappa = 1.00). To identify risk factors, the runners were interviewed by using a standardized, semi-structured questionnaire. The average (SD) age of the runners was 34.2 (11.45), and the prevalence of dental erosion was 19.4%. Gastroesophageal reflux, running frequency per week, and time expended during competition were associated with dental erosion (P dental erosion was not significant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, dental erosion was not associated with use of isotonic drinks. However, frequency of exercise per week and gastroesophageal reflux were risk factors for dental erosion.

Predicting of soil erosion with regarding to rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility

Science.gov (United States)

Suif, Zuliziana; Razak, Mohd Amirun Anis Ab; Ahmad, Nordila

2018-02-01

The soil along the hill and slope are wearing away due to erosion and it can take place due to occurrence of weak and heavy rainfall. The aim of this study is to predict the soil erosion degree in Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) area focused on two major factor which is soil erodibility and rainfall erosivity. Soil erodibility is the possibilities of soil to detach and carried away during rainfall and runoff. The "ROM" scale was used in this study to determine the degree of soil erodibility, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. As for rainfall erosivity, the erosive power caused by rainfall that cause soil loss. A daily rainfall data collected from January to April was analyzed by using ROSE index classification to identify the potential risk of soil erosion. The result shows that the soil erodibilty are moderate at MTD`s hill, high at behind of block Lestari and Landslide MTD hill, and critical at behind the mess cadet. While, the highest rainfall erosivity was recorded in March and April. Overall, this study would benefit the organization greatly in saving cost in landslide protection as relevant authorities can take early measures repairing the most affected area of soil erosion.

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

Quantification and site-specification of the support practice factor when mapping soil erosion risk associated with olive plantations in the Mediterranean island of Crete.

Science.gov (United States)

Karydas, Christos G; Sekuloska, Tijana; Silleos, Georgios N

2009-02-01

Due to inappropriate agricultural management practices, soil erosion is becoming one of the most dangerous forms of soil degradation in many olive farming areas in the Mediterranean region, leading to significant decrease of soil fertility and yield. In order to prevent further soil degradation, proper measures are necessary to be locally implemented. In this perspective, an increase in the spatial accuracy of remote sensing datasets and advanced image analysis are significant tools necessary and efficient for mapping soil erosion risk on a fine scale. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was implemented in the spatial domain using GIS, while a very high resolution satellite image, namely a QuickBird image, was used for deriving cover management (C) and support practice (P) factors, in order to map the risk of soil erosion in Kolymvari, a typical olive farming area in the island of Crete, Greece. The results comprised a risk map of soil erosion when P factor was taken uniform (conventional approach) and a risk map when P factor was quantified site-specifically using object-oriented image analysis. The results showed that the QuickBird image was necessary in order to achieve site-specificity of the P factor and therefore to support fine scale mapping of soil erosion risk in an olive cultivation area, such as the one of Kolymvari in Crete. Increasing the accuracy of the QB image classification will further improve the resulted soil erosion mapping.

An empirical approach to estimate soil erosion risk in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-Fernández, Luis; Martínez-Núñez, Margarita

2011-08-01

Soil erosion is one of the most important factors in land degradation and influences desertification worldwide. In 2001, the Spanish Ministry of the Environment launched the 'National Inventory of Soil Erosion (INES) 2002-2012' to study the process of soil erosion in Spain. The aim of the current article is to assess the usefulness of this National Inventory as an instrument of control, measurement and monitoring of soil erosion in Spain. The methodology and main features of this National Inventory are described in detail. The results achieved as of the end of May 2010 are presented, together with an explanation of the utility of the Inventory as a tool for planning forest hydrologic restoration, soil protection, erosion control, and protection against desertification. Finally, the authors make a comparative analysis of similar initiatives for assessing soil erosion in other countries at the national and European levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

Buffer erosion in dilute groundwater

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schatz, T.; Kanerva, N.; Martikainen, J.; Sane, P.; Olin, M.; Seppaelae, A.; Koskinen, K.

2013-08-01

One scenario of interest for repository safety assessment involves the loss of bentonite buffer material in contact with dilute groundwater flowing through a transmissive fracture interface. In order to examine the extrusion/erosion behavior of bentonite buffer material under such circumstances, a series of experiments were performed in a flow-through, 1 mm aperture, artificial fracture system. These experiments covered a range of solution chemistry (salt concentration and composition), material composition (sodium montmorillonite and admixtures with calcium montmorillonite), and flow velocity conditions. No erosion was observed for sodium montmorillonite against solution compositions from 0.5 g/L to 10 g/L NaCl. No erosion was observed for 50/50 calcium/sodium montmorillonite against 0.5 g/L NaCl. Erosion was observed for both sodium montmorillonite and 50/50 calcium/sodium montmorillonite against solution compositions ≤ 0.25 g/L NaCl. The calculated erosion rates for the tests with the highest levels of measured erosion, i.e., the tests run under the most dilute conditions (ionic strength (IS) < ∼1 mM), were well-correlated to flow velocity, whereas the calculated erosion rates for the tests with lower levels of measured erosion, i.e., the tests run under somewhat less dilute conditions (∼1 mM < IS < ∼4 mM), were not similarly correlated indicating that material and solution composition can significantly affect erosion rates. In every experiment, both erosive and non-erosive, emplaced buffer material extruded into the fracture and was observed to be impermeable to water flowing in the fracture effectively forming an extended diffusive barrier around the intersecting fracture/buffer interface. Additionally, a model which was developed previously to predict the rate of erosion of bentonite buffer material in low ionic strength water in rock fracture environments was applied to three different cases: sodium montmorillonite expansion in a vertical tube, a

DENTAL EROSION IN PRIMARY DENTITION- A REVIEW

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Rafi Shaik

2017-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND The pattern of oral diseases has been influenced by ever changing human lifestyle. Tooth wear especially dental erosion has drawn increasing attention as risk factor for tooth damage or loss in recent years. It is a common condition in primary dentition compared to permanent dentition due to thinner and less mineralised enamel. However, it is more worrying, when this condition is being found in an alarming proportion among children. The presence of dental erosion in children is likely to be associated with a number of general health and dietary factors, but it is also aggravated by the relatively more rapid progression of erosion in the deciduous teeth. An understanding of the aetiologies and risk factors for erosion is important for early recognition of dental erosion to prevent serious irreversible damage to the dentition. This paper discusses the erosion in children with regard to its epidemiology, prevalence, clinical features, measurement and prevention.

The prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Southern China

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Wang Ping

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental erosion has been investigated in developed and developing countries and the prevalence varies considerably in different countries, geographic locations, and age groups. With the lifestyle of the Chinese people changing significantly over the decades, dental erosion has begun to receive more attention. However, the information about dental erosion in China is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Guangzhou, Southern China. Methods This cross-sectional survey was performed by two trained, calibrated examiners. A stratified random sample of 12-13-year-old children (774 boys and 725 girls from 10 schools was examined for dental erosion using the diagnostic criteria of Eccles and the index of O'Sullivan was applied to record the distribution, severity, and amount of the lesions. Data on the socio-economic status, health behaviours, and general health involved in the etiology of dental erosion were obtained from a self-completed questionnaire. The analyses were performed using SPSS software. Results At least one tooth surface with signs of erosion was found in 416 children (27.3%. The most frequently affected teeth were the central incisors (upper central incisors, 16.3% and 15.9%; lower central incisors, 17.4% and 14.8%. The most frequently affected surface was the incisal or occlusal edge (43.2%. The loss of enamel contour was present in 54.6% of the tooth surfaces with erosion. Of the affected tooth surfaces, 69.3% had greater than one-half of the tooth surface was affected. The results from logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the children who were female, consumed carbonated drinks once a week or more, and those whose mothers were educated to the primary level tended to have more dental erosion. Conclusions Dental erosion in 12-13-year-old Chinese school children is becoming a significant problem. A

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

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Matthias Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-05-01

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Spatio-temporal assessment of soil erosion risk in different agricultural zones of the Inle Lake region, southern Shan State, Myanmar.

Science.gov (United States)

Htwe, Thin Nwe; Brinkmann, Katja; Buerkert, Andreas

2015-10-01

Myanmar is one of Southeast Asia's climatically most diverse countries, where sheet, rill, and gully erosion affect crop yields and subsequently livelihood strategies of many people. In the unique wetland ecosystem of Inle Lake, soil erosion in surrounding uplands lead to sedimentation and pollution of the water body. The current study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to identify soil erosion risks of the Inle Lake region in space and time and to assess the relationship between soil erosion and degradation for different agricultural zones and cropping systems. Altogether, 85% of soil losses occurred on barren land along the steep slopes. The hotspot of soil erosion risk is situated in the western uplands characterized by unsustainable land use practices combined with a steep topography. The estimated average soil losses amounted to 19.9, 10.1, and 26.2 t ha(-1) yr(-1) in 1989, 2000, and 2009, respectively. These fluctuations were mainly the results of changes in precipitation and land cover (deforestation (-19%) and expansion of annual cropland (+35%) from 1989 to 2009). Most farmers in the study area have not yet adopted effective soil protection measures to mitigate the effects of soil erosion such as land degradation and water pollution of the lake reservoir. This urgently needs to be addressed by policy makers and extension services.

Modelling Soil Erosion in the Densu River Basin Using RUSLE and GIS Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashiagbori, G; Forkuo, E K; Laari, P; Aabeyir, R

2014-07-01

Soil erosion involves detachment and transport of soil particles from top soil layers, degrading soil quality and reducing the productivity of affected lands. Soil eroded from the upland catchment causes depletion of fertile agricultural land and the resulting sediment deposited at the river networks creates river morphological change and reservoir sedimentation problems. However, land managers and policy makers are more interested in the spatial distribution of soil erosion risk than in absolute values of soil erosion loss. The aim of this paper is to model the spatial distribution of soil erosion in Densu River Basin of Ghana using RUSLE and GIS tools and to use the model to explore the relationship between erosion susceptibility, slope and land use/land cover (LULC) in the Basin. The rainfall map, digital elevation model, soil type map, and land cover map, were input data in the soil erosion model developed. This model was then categorized into four different erosion risk classes. The developed soil erosion map was then overlaid with the slope and LULC maps of the study area to explore their effects on erosion susceptibility of the soil in the Densu River Basin. The Model, predicted 88% of the basin as low erosion risk and 6% as moderate erosion risk, 3% as high erosion risk and 3% as severe risk. The high and severe erosion areas were distributed mainly within the areas of high slope gradient and also sections of the moderate forest LULC class. Also, the areas within the moderate forest LULC class found to have high erosion risk, had an intersecting high erodibility soil group.

LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion): a model to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Torri, Dino; Santi, Elisa; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marchesini, Ivan

2014-05-01

approaches have been proposed to model separately landslide and erosion processes, only few attempts were made to model both jointly, mostly integrating pre-existing models. To overcome this limitation we develop a new model called LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion), specifically design to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios including: (i) changes of meteorological factors, (ii) changes of vegetation or land-use, (iii) and changes of slope morphology. The was applied in different study area in order to check its basic assumptions, and to test its general operability and applicability. Results show a reasonable model behaviors and confirm its easy applicability in real cases.

Development and validation of a method to estimate the potential wind erosion risk in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Roger; Deumlich, Detlef; Völker, Lidia

2017-04-01

The introduction of the Cross Compliance (CC) regulations for soil protection resulted in the demand for the classification of the the wind erosion risk on agricultural areas in Germany nationwide. A spatial highly resolved method was needed based on uniform data sets and validation principles, which provides a fair and equivalent procedure for all affected farmers. A GIS-procedure was developed, which derives the site specific wind erosion risk from the main influencing factors: soil texture, wind velocity, wind direction and landscape structure following the German standard DIN 19706. The procedure enables different approaches in the Federal States and comparable classification results. Here, we present the approach of the Federal State of Brandenburg. In the first step a complete soil data map was composed in a grid size of 10 x 10 m. Data were taken from 1.) the Soil quality Appraisal (scale 1:10.000), 2.) the Medium-scale Soil Mapping (MMK, 1:25.000), 3.) extrapolating the MMK, 4.) new Soil quality Appraisal (new areas after coal-mining). Based on the texture and carbon content the wind erosion susceptibility was divided in 6 classes. This map was combined with data of the annual average wind velocity resulting in an increase of the risk classes for wind velocities > 5 ms-1 and a decrease for structure is regarded by allocating a height to each landscape element, corresponding to the described features in the digital "Biotope and Land Use Map". The "hill shade" procedure of ArcGIS was used to set virtual shadows behind the landscape elements for eight directions. The relative frequency of wind from each direction was used as a weighting factor and multiplied with the numerical values of the shadowed cells. Depending on the distance to the landscape element the shadowing effect was combined with the risk classes. The results show that the wind erosion risk is obviously reduced by integrating landscape structures into the risk assessment. After the renewed

Tooth erosion and eating disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Ana Paula Hermont

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Eating disorders are associated with the highest rates of morbidity and mortality of any mental disorders among adolescents. The failure to recognize their early signs can compromise a patient's recovery and long-term prognosis. Tooth erosion has been reported as an oral manifestation that might help in the early detection of eating disorders. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to search for scientific evidence regarding the following clinical question: Do eating disorders increase the risk of tooth erosion? METHODS: An electronic search addressing eating disorders and tooth erosion was conducted in eight databases. Two independent reviewers selected studies, abstracted information and assessed its quality. Data were abstracted for meta-analysis comparing tooth erosion in control patients (without eating disorders vs. patients with eating disorders; and patients with eating disorder risk behavior vs. patients without such risk behavior. Combined odds ratios (ORs and a 95% confidence interval (CI were obtained. RESULTS: Twenty-three papers were included in the qualitative synthesis and assessed by a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Fourteen papers were included in the meta-analysis. Patients with eating disorders had more risk of tooth erosion (OR = 12.4, 95%CI = 4.1-37.5. Patients with eating disorders who self-induced vomiting had more risk of tooth erosion than those patients who did not self-induce vomiting (OR = 19.6, 95%CI = 5.6-68.8. Patients with risk behavior of eating disorder had more risk of tooth erosion than patients without such risk behavior (Summary OR = 11.6, 95%CI = 3.2-41.7. CONCLUSION: The scientific evidence suggests a causal relationship between tooth erosion and eating disorders and purging practices. Nevertheless, there is a lack of scientific evidence to fulfill the basic criteria of causation between the risk behavior for eating disorders and tooth erosion.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Soil Erosion as a stochastic process

Science.gov (United States)

Casper, Markus C.

2015-04-01

The main tools to provide estimations concerning risk and amount of erosion are different types of soil erosion models: on the one hand, there are empirically based model concepts on the other hand there are more physically based or process based models. However, both types of models have substantial weak points. All empirical model concepts are only capable of providing rough estimates over larger temporal and spatial scales, they do not account for many driving factors that are in the scope of scenario related analysis. In addition, the physically based models contain important empirical parts and hence, the demand for universality and transferability is not given. As a common feature, we find, that all models rely on parameters and input variables, which are to certain, extend spatially and temporally averaged. A central question is whether the apparent heterogeneity of soil properties or the random nature of driving forces needs to be better considered in our modelling concepts. Traditionally, researchers have attempted to remove spatial and temporal variability through homogenization. However, homogenization has been achieved through physical manipulation of the system, or by statistical averaging procedures. The price for obtaining this homogenized (average) model concepts of soils and soil related processes has often been a failure to recognize the profound importance of heterogeneity in many of the properties and processes that we study. Especially soil infiltrability and the resistance (also called "critical shear stress" or "critical stream power") are the most important empirical factors of physically based erosion models. The erosion resistance is theoretically a substrate specific parameter, but in reality, the threshold where soil erosion begins is determined experimentally. The soil infiltrability is often calculated with empirical relationships (e.g. based on grain size distribution). Consequently, to better fit reality, this value needs to be

Soil Erosion Risk Map based on irregularity of the vegetative activity

Science.gov (United States)

Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Tarquis, Ana Maria; Martín-Sotoca, Juan J.; Valencia, Jose L.; Gobin, Anne; Rodriguez-Sinobas, Leonor

2016-04-01

Fournier Index on NDVI values seems to synthesize the different parameters of the USLE, referring to rainfall, soil, geomorphology and vegetation cover. Acknowledgements Authors are grateful to TALE project (CICYT PCIN-2014-080) and DURERO project (Env.C1.3913442) for their financial support. References Fournier, F. (1960), Climat et erosion. P.U.F. Paris. Jensen, J.R. (2000). Remote Sensing of the Environment: An Earth Resource Perpective, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Martínez Sotoca, J. J. (2014) estructura espacial de la sequía en pastos y sus aplicaciones en el seguro agrario indexado. (In Spanish) Master Thesis, UPM. Shamshad, A., Azhari M.N., Isaac, M.H., wan Hussin, W.M.A., Parida, B.P.. (2008). Development of an appropriate procedure for estimation of RUSLE EI30 index and preparation of erosivity maps for Pulau Penang in Peninsular Malaysia. Catena, 72, 423-432. van der Knijff, J.M., Jones, R.J.A., Montanarella, L. (1999). Soil Erosion Risk Assessment Italy Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in Italy. European Commission Soil Bureau Joint Research Centre European Commission. EUR 19022EN.

Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

2013-11-01

This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

Evaluating the new soil erosion map of Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Waltner, István; Centeri, Csaba; Takács, Katalin; Pirkó, Béla; Koós, Sándor; László, Péter; Pásztor, László

2017-04-01

With growing concerns on the effects of climate change and land use practices on our soil resources, soil erosion by water is becoming a significant issue internationally. Since the 1964 publication of the first soil erosion map of Hungary, there have been several attempts to provide a countrywide assessment of erosion susceptibility. However, there has been no up-to-date map produced in the last decade. In 2016, a new, 1:100 000 scale soil erosion map was published, based on available soil, elevation, land use and meteorological data for the extremely wet year of 2010. The map utilized combined outputs for two spatially explicit methods: the widely used empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the process-based Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) models. The present study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the model results. In lieu of available national monitoring data, information from other sources were used. The Soil Degradation Subsystem (TDR) of the National Environmental Information System (OKIR) is a digital database based on a soil survey and farm dairy data collected from representative farms in Hungary. During the survey all kind of degradation forms - including soil erosion - were considered. Agricultural and demographic data was obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Data from an interview-based survey was also used in an attempt to assess public awareness of soil erosion risks. Point-based evaluation of the model results was complemented with cross-regional assessment of soil erosion estimates. This, combined with available demographic information provides us with an opportunity to address soil erosion on a community level, with the identification of regions with the highest risk of being affected by soil erosion.

Identification of vulnerable areas for gully erosion under different scenarios of land abandonment in Southeast Spain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lesschen, J.P.; Kok, K.; Verburg, P.H.; Cammeraat, L.H.

2007-01-01

Abandonment of agricultural land is one of the main changes in Mediterranean land use. To mitigate runoff and erosion from abandoned land, it is necessary to identify locations that are vulnerable to erosion as a result of land abandonment. The objective of our study was to identify vulnerable areas

Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

2017-01-01

to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Application Of GIS Software For Erosion Control In The Watershed Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Setyawan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Land degradation in form of soil erosion due to uncontrolled farming is occurred in many watersheds of Indonesia particularly in Java Island. Soil erosion is decreasing watershed function as a rainwater harvesting area. Good conservation practices need to be applied to prevent more degradation. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of land conservation practice for erosion control through land use modeling in the watershed scale. The modeling was applied in the Sempor watershed Indonesia. Three scenarios of land use were used for modeling. Soil erosion measurement and land use modeling were performed by using Universal Soil Loss Equation USLE method and Geographic Information System GIS software ArcGIS 10.1. Land use modeling was conducted by increasing permanent vegetation coverage from existing condition 4 to 10 20 and 30. The result showed that the modeling can reduce heavy class erosion about 15-37 of total area. GIS provides a good tool for erosion control modeling in the watershed scale.

Recommendations of activity restriction in high-risk pregnancy scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendix, Jane; Hegaard, Hanne Kristine; Bergholt, Thomas

2015-01-01

activity restriction more often than obstetricians in five of the nine scenarios, in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes, preterm labour, cervical ripening, total placenta praevia, and intrauterine growth restriction, whereas no differences were found in the remaining scenarios. Compared...... to the obstetricians, the midwives also reported that they expected the recommendation to be more effective. Most midwives and obstetricians reported that they thought strict activity restriction was associated with severe or moderate adverse effect, and recommended antithrombotic prophylaxis. Conclusions: Danish...... obstetricians and midwives prescribe activity restriction in most high-risk pregnancies. The degree of activity restriction and the presumed effect vary between clinicians. This may reflect different attitudes and lack of guidelines based on clinical studies of a possible benefit of activity restriction....

A hierachical method for soil erosion assessment and spatial risk modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Okoth, P.F.

2003-01-01

  Though a lot has been done and achieved in erosion research and control in Kenya, most of the erosion research methods have in the past put emphasis more on quantifying soil loss or measuring soil erosion, rather than pinpointing to

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All

Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

2016-01-01

In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

The communication of the risk of coastal erosion in Portugal: a global problem, a local trouble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo BASTO

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In the past two decades a set of instruments has been devised by the Portuguese authorities to handle the issue of coastal erosion. We argue that this legal apparatus not only lacks the internal integration necessary for its effectiveness, but it also fails to recognise the ways in which the problem materialises in the everyday life of coastal areas. Through a case study in the village of Furadouro in Western Portugal, we demonstrate how this top-down implementation of policies does not promote a true communication of risks, in the sense that the problem of coastal erosion is not “put in common” across levels of governance.

Effectiveness of the GAEC standard of cross compliance retain terraces on soil erosion control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Bazzoffi

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The GAEC standard retain terraces of cross compliance prohibits farmers the elimination of existing terraces, with the aim to ensure the protection of soil from erosion. In the Italian literature there are not field studies to quantify the effects of the elimination or degradation of terraces on soil erosion. Therefore, the modeling approach was chosen and applied in a scenario analysis to evaluate increasing levels of degradation of stone wall terraces. The study was conducted on two sample areas: Lamole (700.8 ha, Tuscany and Costaviola (764.73 ha, Calabria with contrasting landscapes. The Universal Soil Loss Equation model (USLE was applied in the comparative assessment of the soil erosion risk (Mg . ha-1 . yr-1, by simulating five increasing intensity of terrace degradation, respectively: conserved partially damaged, very damaged, partially removed, removed, each of which corresponding to different values of the indexes of verification in case of infringement to GAEC standard provided for by the AGEA rules which have come into force since December 2009 (Agency for Agricultural Payments. To growing intensity of degradation, a progressive loss of efficacy of terraces was attributed by increasing the values of the LS factor (length and slope of USLE in relation with the local modification of the length and steepness of the slope between adjacent terraces. Basically, it was simulated the gradual return to the natural morphology of the slope. The results of the analysis showed a significant increase in erosion in relationship with increasing degradation of terraces. Furthermore, it is possible to conclude that the GAEC standard retain terraces is very effective with regard to the primary objective of reducing erosion. A further statistical analysis was performed to test the protective value of terraces against soil erosion in areas where agriculture was abandoned. The analysis was carried out by comparing the specific risk of erosion (Mg . ha-1

Erosion risk assessment in the southern Amazon - Data Preprocessing, data base application and process based modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Herrmann, Anne-Katrin; Schultze, Nico; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

2015-04-01

The study region along the BR 16 highway belongs to the "Deforestation Arc" at the southern border of the Amazon rainforest. At the same time, it incorporates a land use gradient as colonization started in the 1975-1990 in Central Mato Grosso in 1990 in northern Mato Grosso and most recently in 2004-2005 in southern Pará. Based on present knowledge soil erosion is one of the key driver of soil degradation. Hence, there is a strong need to implement soil erosion control measures in eroding landscapes. Planning and dimensioning of such measures require reliable and detailed information on the temporal and spatial distribution of soil loss, sediment transport and deposition. Soil erosion models are increasingly used, in order to simulate the physical processes involved and to predict the effects of soil erosion control measures. The process based EROSION 3D simulation model is used for surveying soil erosion and deposition on regional catchments. Although EROSION 3D is a widespread, extensively validated model, the application of the model on regional scale remains challenging due to the enormous data requirements and complex data processing operations. In this context the study includes the compilation, validation and generalisation of existing land use and soil data in order to generate a consistent EROSION 3D input datasets. As a part of this process a GIS-linked data base application allows to transfer the original soil and land use data into model specific parameter files. This combined methodology provides different risk assessment maps for certain demands on regional scale. Besides soil loss and sediment transport, sediment pass over points into surface water bodies and particle enrichment can be simulated using the EROSION 3D model. Thus the estimation of particle bound nutrient and pollutant inputs into surface water bodies becomes possible. The study ended up in a user-friendly, timesaving and improved software package for the simulation of soil loss and

Dental erosion in groups of Yemeni children and adolescents and the modification of an erosion partial recording system

OpenAIRE

Al-Ashtal, Amin Mohsen Saleh; Johansson, Anders; Ridwaan, Omar; Johansson, Ann-Katrin

2016-01-01

Background: Dental erosion is a multifactorial oral health problem with an increasing prevalence among children and adolescents in many countries. Awareness of the condition among lay people is generally lacking, and methods for its clinical grading also need further improvements. Aim: The aims of this thesis was to investigate various aspects of dental erosion including prevalence and risk indicators, to evaluate the recording system used, and to assess the awareness of dental erosion in ...

[Assessment of the impacts of soil erosion on water environment based on the integration of soil erosion process and landscape pattern].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yu; Wu, Bing-Fang; Zeng, Yuan; Zhang, Lei

2013-09-01

The integration of the effects of landscape pattern to the assessment of the impacts of soil erosion on eco-environmental is of practical significance in methodological prospect, being able to provide an approach for identifying water body's sediment source area, assessing the potential risks of sediment export of on-site soil erosion to the target water body, and evaluating the capacity of regional landscape pattern in preventing soil loss. In this paper, the RUSLE model was applied to simulate the on-site soil erosion rate. With the consideration of the soil retention potential of vegetation cover and topography, a quantitative assessment was conducted on the impacts of soil erosion in the water source region of the middle route for South-to-North Water Transfer Project on rivers and reservoirs by delineating landscape pattern at point (or cell) scale and sub-watershed level. At point (or grid cell) scale, the index of soil erosion impact intensity (I) was developed as an indicator of the potential risk of sediment export to the water bodies. At sub-watershed level, the landscape leakiness index (LI) was employed to indicate the sediment retention capacity of a given landscape pattern. The results revealed that integrating the information of landscape pattern and the indices of soil erosion process could spatially effectively reflect the impact intensity of in situ soil erosion on water bodies. The LI was significantly exponentially correlated to the mean sediment retention capacity of landscape and the mean vegetation coverage of watershed, and the sediment yield at sub-watershed scale was significantly correlated to the LI in an exponential regression. It could be concluded that the approach of delineating landscape pattern based on soil erosion process and the integration of the information of landscape pattern with its soil retention potential could provide a new approach for the risk evaluation of soil erosion.

SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISKS TO WATER EROSION IN THE UPPER OF ARAGUAIA RIVER BASIN (GO/MT, BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

OLIVEIRA, Victoria Christina Vilela

2005-05-01

Full Text Available The soil is a very important natural resource to life in general, especially to human life, because it is the base of its activities. However, in some parts of the word it is not exposed to adequate conservational practices, which result in degradation of the quality and negative impacts on the ecosystems and biodiversity. One of this impacts concerns the water erosion, the most important cause of the accelerated loss of properties on agricultural lands by reduction of fertility, desertification and increase of recent sedimentation in the hydrical channels. The laminar erosion is a common form but no evident signs are visible, except when the roots appear on the cultures and pastures. It is caused by runoff, mainly in the tropics.Some soils have high susceptibility and risks to this form of erosion, frequently the fine sandy soils after deforestation of their original cover and replacement by intensive agricultural an pasturage activities without conservational practices.

Development Of Rainfall Erosivity Map For Nigeria | Ogedengbe ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The indices were used to develop a rainfall erosivity map or Nigeria. The map reveals that Nigeria may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The south-western part is generally in the low erosion zone, with the exception of the coastal portion of Lagos, Ondo, Edo and Delta states. The south-east and central ...

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Creating a Bio-Inspired Solution to Prevent Erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Reher, R.; Martinez, A.; Cola, J.; Frost, D.

2016-12-01

Through the study of geophysical sciences, lessons can be developed which allow for the introduction of bio-inspired design and art concepts to K-5 elementary students. Students are placed into an engineering mindset in which they must apply the concepts of bio-geotechnics to observe how we can use nature to prevent and abate erosion. Problems are staged for students using realistic engineering scenarios such as erosion prevention through biomimicry and the study of anchorage characteristics of root structures in regard to stability of soil. Specifically, a lesson is introduced where students research, learn, and present information about bio-inspired designs to understand these concepts. They lean how plant roots differ in size and shape to stabilize soil. In addition, students perform a series of hands-on experiments which demonstrate how bio-cements and roots can slow erosion.

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

Mechanisms of erosion of atherosclerotic plaques.

Science.gov (United States)

Quillard, Thibaut; Franck, Grégory; Mawson, Thomas; Folco, Eduardo; Libby, Peter

2017-10-01

The present review explores the mechanisms of superficial intimal erosion, a common cause of thrombotic complications of atherosclerosis. Human coronary artery atheroma that give rise to thrombosis because of erosion differ diametrically from those associated with fibrous cap rupture. Eroded lesions characteristically contain few inflammatory cells, abundant extracellular matrix, and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Innate immune mechanisms such as engagement of Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) on cultured endothelial cells can impair their viability, attachment, and ability to recover a wound. Hyaluronan fragments may serve as endogenous TLR2 ligands. Mouse experiments demonstrate that flow disturbance in arteries with neointimas tailored to resemble features of human eroded plaques disturbs endothelial cell barrier function, impairs endothelial cell viability, recruits neutrophils, and provokes endothelial cells desquamation, NET formation, and thrombosis in a TLR2-dependent manner. Mechanisms of erosion have received much less attention than those that provoke plaque rupture. Intensive statin treatment changes the characteristic of plaques that render them less susceptible to rupture. Thus, erosion may contribute importantly to the current residual burden of risk. Understanding the mechanisms of erosion may inform the development and deployment of novel therapies to combat the remaining atherothrombotic risk in the statin era.

Distributed Modeling of soil erosion and deposition affected by buffer strips

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khademalrasoul, Ataalah; Heckrath, Goswin Johann; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

bodies. Buffer zones can be efficient in terms of retaining sediment and phosphorus transported by water erosion. This study aimed at parameterizing a spatial distributed erosion model to evaluate the effect of different buffer zone properties and dimension. It was our hypothesis that the placement...... was surveyed during the runoff season. In addition, organic carbon and phosphorous contents as well as bulk density were determined in soils of eroding and depositional sites. General buffer zone properties were recorded. Here we present results from scenario analyses comparing measured sediment deposition......Soil degradation and environmental impacts due to water erosion are a growing concern globally. Large parts of Denmark are covered by gently rolling moraine landscape with moderately to locally highly erodible soils where water erosion causes off-site problems in the form of eutrophication of water...

Soil Erosion Estimation Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Wadi Yalamlam Basin, Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jarbou A. Bahrawi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the major environmental problems in terms of soil degradation in Saudi Arabia. Soil erosion leads to significant on- and off-site impacts such as significant decrease in the productive capacity of the land and sedimentation. The key aspects influencing the quantity of soil erosion mainly rely on the vegetation cover, topography, soil type, and climate. This research studies the quantification of soil erosion under different levels of data availability in Wadi Yalamlam. Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information Systems (GIS techniques have been implemented for the assessment of the data, applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE for the calculation of the risk of erosion. Thirty-four soil samples were randomly selected for the calculation of the erodibility factor, based on calculating the K-factor values derived from soil property surfaces after interpolating soil sampling points. Soil erosion risk map was reclassified into five erosion risk classes and 19.3% of the Wadi Yalamlam is under very severe risk (37,740 ha. GIS and RS proved to be powerful instruments for mapping soil erosion risk, providing sufficient tools for the analytical part of this research. The mapping results certified the role of RUSLE as a decision support tool.

Soil erosion simulations of land use scenarios for a small Loess Plateau catchment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Messing, I.; Hessel, R.; Chen Liding,; Ritsema, C.J.; Stolte, J.

2003-01-01

Several land use scenarios were developed for the 3.5 km2 Danangou catchment on the Chinese Loess Plateau. These scenarios consist of four groups of three scenarios each: one group is based on the present land use distribution, the other three (alternative land uses) on a redistribution of land use

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

Comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: Case study of the Upper Blue Nile River.

Science.gov (United States)

Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Poesen, Jean; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Nyssen, Jan; Adgo, Enyew

2017-01-01

In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5tha -1 yr -1 and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr -1 , of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30tha -1 yr -1 ) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15tha -1 yr -1 ), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region. Copyright © 2016 Office national des forêts. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling ephemeral gully erosion from unpaved roads: Equifinality and implications for scenario analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Modeling gully erosion in urban areas is challenging due to difficulties with equifinality and parameter identification, which complicates quantification of management impacts on runoff and sediment production. We calibrated a model (AnnAGNPS) of an ephemeral gully network that formed on unpaved ro...

A Dental Hygienist's and Therapist's Guide to the Management of Tooth Erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Ariyanayagam, Yana

2016-08-01

Dental care professionals can support patients to prevent and manage tooth erosion. The role of the dentist is to restore the structure and function of teeth damaged by acid erosion, while the role of the dental hygienist therapist is to work alongside the dentist to help manage and reduce the risk of tooth erosion. This article will highlight how the dental hygienist or therapist can identify tooth erosion. It will describe the features of tooth erosion and outline the causes. This article will discuss preventative care options for patients who are at risk of tooth erosion, including specific oral hygiene instructions, fluoride advice and use of other dental products.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

Science.gov (United States)

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion Pressure on the Danish Coasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Sørensen, Per; Kroon, Aart

Coastlines around the world are receding due to coastal erosion.With rising sea levels and a potential climatic deterioration due to climate change, erosion rates are likely to increase at many locations in the future.Together with the current preference of people to settle near or directly...... by the ocean, coastal erosion issues become increasingly more important to the human values at risk. Along many Danish coastlines, hard structures already act as coastal protection in the form of groins, breakwaters, revetments etc. These eroding coasts however still lack sand and where the public, in general......, neglects the need for sand replenishment i.e. in the form of repeated sand nourishments. Here we present a conceptual model and method for dividing coastal erosion into acute and chronic erosion pressure, respectively. We focus on the model use for management and climate change adaptation purposes...

Potential impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity and water availability in China in the next 100 years

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer Moore; Corey Bunch; Jian Ni

2002-01-01

Soil erosion and water shortages threaten China’s social and economic development in the 21st century. This paper examines how projected climate change could affect soil erosion and water availability across China. We used both historical climate data (1961-1980) and the UKMO Hadley3 climate scenario (1960-2099) to drive regional hydrology and soil erosivity models....

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland

Science.gov (United States)

Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; McLeaod, Jim; Castellazzi, Marie; Baggio Compagnucci, Andrea; Irvine, Justin

2017-04-01

Soils play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning, and modelling its risk of degradation is fundamental, especially in the context of climate change. In this work we used continuous 3D soil information derived from digital soil mapping (DSM) approaches to map sediment erosion and deposition patterns due to rainfall. The test area covers the whole of mainland Scotland, excluding the Northern Islands. Soil profiles data were interpolated using a geo-statistical hybrid Generalised Additive Models method for a range of soil properties such as organic matter, texture, soil depth and peat presence. The same method was used to interpolate climatic data and management information. Remote sensing data were integrated in the process and land use data included. Information on grazing (sheep and deer) pressure was taken into account in the modelling. The uncertainty was accounted and propagated across the whole process. The Scottish test case highlights the differences in roles between mineral and organic soils with an assessment adapted to each of them. The results and intermediate steps were compared with available continental scale results. The results show the importance of the use of DSM approaches for modeling soils and ecosystem functions and assessing uncertainty propagation.

Erosion and sedimentation caused by watercourse regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahl, T.E.; Godtland, K.

1995-01-01

This report describes the observations made by SINTEF NHL in 1993 - 1994 on the development of erosion in three regulated lakes in Norway: Devdesjavri, Store Maalvatn and Gjevilvatnet. Surveys, profile levelling, water sample analyses, aerial photography etc were all used. Erosion was dramatic in all three magazines the first year of regulation and then slowed down. It has since remained relatively stable. However, there is a risk of further strong erosion connected with flooding tributaries, notably at low water such as usually occurs in spring. This is true in particular of the main river discharging into Devdesjavri, which is subject to landslides, wave and river erosion. In addition, ground water erosion may occur if the magazine is drained too fast. The report is lavishly illustrated with colour pictures of the effects of erosion. 21 refs., 15 figs., 13 tabs

A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Patient Perceptions of Breast Cancer Risk in Imaging-Detected Low-Risk Scenarios and Thresholds for Desired Intervention: A Multi-Institution Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Lars J; Shelby, Rebecca A; Knippa, Emily E; Langman, Eun L; Miller, Lauren S; Whiteside, Beth E; Soo, Mary Scott C

2018-06-01

To determine women's perceptions of breast cancer risk and thresholds for desiring biopsy when considering BI-RADS 3 and 4A scenarios and recommendations, respectively. Women presenting for screening mammography from five geographically diverse medical centers were surveyed. Demographic information and baseline anxiety were queried. Participants were presented with scenarios of short-term imaging follow-up recommendations (ie, BI-RADS 3) and biopsy recommendations (ie, BI-RADS 4A) for low-risk mammographic abnormalities and asked to estimate their breast cancer risk for each scenario. Participants reported the threshold (ie, likelihood of cancer) where they would feel comfortable undergoing short-term imaging follow-up and biopsy and their anticipated regret for choosing short-term follow-up versus biopsy. Analysis of 2,747 surveys showed that participants estimated breast cancer risk of 32.8% for a BI-RADS 3 and 41.1% for a BI-RADS 4A scenarios are significantly greater rates than clinically established rates (<2% [P < .001] and 2%-10% [P < .001], respectively). Over one-half (55.4%) of participants reported they would never want imaging follow-up if there was any chance of cancer; two-thirds (66.2%) reported they would desire biopsy if there was any chance of cancer. Participants reported greater anticipated regret (P < .001) and less relief and confidence (P < .001) with the decision to undergo follow-up imaging versus biopsy. Women overestimate breast cancer risk associated with both BI-RADS 3 and 4A scenarios and desire very low biopsy thresholds. Greater anticipated regret and less relief and confidence was reported with the choice to undergo short-term imaging follow-up compared with biopsy. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

Can conservation trump impacts of climate change on soil erosion? An assessment from winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgen D. Garbrecht

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With the need to increase crop production to meet the needs of a growing population, protecting the productivity of our soil resource is essential. However, conservationists are concerned that conservation practices that were effective in the past may no longer be effective in the future under projected climate change. In winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S., increased precipitation intensity and increased aridity associated with warmer temperatures may pose increased risks of soil erosion from vulnerable soils and landscapes. This investigation was undertaken to determine which conservation practices would be necessary and sufficient to hold annual soil erosion by water under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario at or below the present soil erosion levels. Advances in and benefits of agricultural soil and water conservation over the last century in the United States are briefly reviewed, and challenges and climate uncertainties confronting resource conservation in this century are addressed. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP computer model was used to estimate future soil erosion by water from winter wheat cropland in Central Oklahoma and for 10 projected climates and 7 alternative conservation practices. A comparison with soil erosion values under current climate conditions and conventional tillage operations showed that, on average, a switch from conventional to conservation tillage would be sufficient to offset the average increase in soil erosion by water under most projected climates. More effective conservation practices, such as conservation tillage with a summer cover crop would be required to control soil erosion associated with the most severe climate projections. It was concluded that a broad range of conservation tools are available to agriculture to offset projected future increases in soil erosion by water even under assumed worst case climate change scenarios in Central Oklahoma. The problem

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ninna Reitzel Jensen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

Current status of mechanical erosion studies of bentonite buffer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sane, P.; Olin, M.; Koskinen, K.

2013-08-01

The performance of the bentonite buffer in KBS-3-type nuclear waste repository concept relies to a great extent on the buffer surrounding the canister having sufficient dry density. Loss of buffer material caused by erosion remains as the most significant process reducing the density of the buffer. The mechanical erosion, or pre-saturation erosion, is the process where flowing groundwater transports buffer material away from the deposition hole towards the deposition tunnel. This process reduces the overall buffer density and potentially creates localized regions of low density. In the worst case the process is assumed to last as long as the free volume between the pellets in the pellets filled regions is filled with groundwater. With fixed environmental and material parameters a set of experiments was performed, testing the erosive properties of different buffer and backfill materials (MX-80 and Friedland Clay) in different groundwater conditions. The method used was a pinhole erosion test using two sizescales; 100 mm and 400 mm of cell length. The purpose of the pinhole tests was to test the scenario where piping channel is formed in the buffer and water flows through a single channel. The erosion data was produced with two methods, firstly the time-related erosion rates measured in-situ during the measurement and secondly the overall mass loss in the sample cell measured after dismantling of the test. It was observed that erosion in piping channels decreases rapidly (∼24 h) and irreversibly to a level that is an order of magnitude lower than the peak values. (orig.)

Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-01-01

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment. (letter)

A scenario-driven approach for value, risk and cost analysis in system architecting for innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ionita, M.T.; America, P.H.M.; Hammer, D.K.; Obbink, J.H.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Magee, J.; Szyperski, C.; Bosch, J.

2004-01-01

We present a quantitative method for scenario-driven value, risk, and cost analysis when proposing new system architectures for innovation projects. The method helps to articulate the relative benefits and/or disadvantages of the proposed set of scenarios in the early architecting phases of a new

Modelling the impact of the climatic changes on the dune erosion. The case of the Camargue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sabatier, F.

2008-01-01

Three climatic changes scenarios were investigated by an increase of energy and by the duration of an extreme storm. The wave characteristics properties and the sea level time series of the referenced storm were increased of about 5, 10 and 20 % in order to define the dune erosion. We evidenced that the wave height displays more influence on the dune erosion than the sea level. Moreover, the storm duration, over 4 days, does not play an important role on the dune erosion. However, there is no proportional relationships between a weak storm energy increase and/or duration, and dune erosion. A small increase of storm will have a large impact on dune erosion in the future. (author)

An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

2014-03-01

Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The control of divertor carbon erosion/redeposition in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whyte, D.G.; West, W.P.; Wong, C.P.C.

2001-01-01

The DIII-D tokamak has demonstrated an operational scenario where the graphite-covered divertor is free of net erosion. Reduction of divertor carbon erosion is accomplished using a low temperature (detached) divertor plasma that eliminates physical sputtering. Likewise, the carbon source rate arising from chemical erosion is found to be very low in the detached divertor. Near strikepoint regions, the rate of carbon deposition is ∼3 cm/burn-year, with a corresponding hydrogenic codeposition rate >1kg/m 2 /burn-year; rates both problematic for steady-state fusion reactors. The carbon net deposition rate in the divertor is consistent with carbon arriving from the core plasma region. Carbon influx from the main wall is measured to be relatively large in the high-density detached regime and is of sufficient magnitude to account for the deposition rate in the divertor. Divertor redeposition is therefore determined by non-divertor erosion and transport. Despite the success in reducing divertor erosion on DIII-D with detachment, no significant reduction is found in the core plasma carbon density, illustrating the importance of non-divertor erosion and the complex coupling between erosion/redeposition and impurity plasma transport. (author)

Erosion control works and the intensity of soil erosion in the upper part of the river Toplica drainage basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostadinov, S; Dragovic, N; Zlatic, M; Todosijevic, M

2008-01-01

Aiming at the protection of the future storage 'Selova' against erosion and sediment, and also to protect the settlements and roads in the drainage basin against torrential floods, erosion control works in the upper part of the river Toplica basin, upstream of the storage 'Selova', started in 1947. The works included building-technical works (check dams) and biological works (afforestation and grassing of bare lands and other erosion risk areas). Within the period 1947-2006, the following erosion control works were executed: afforestation of bare lands on the slopes 2,257.00 ha, grassing of bare lands 1,520.00 ha, and altogether 54 dams were constructed in the river Toplica tributaries. This caused the decrease of sediment transport in the main flow of the river Toplica. This paper, based on the field research conducted in two time periods: 1988 and in the period 2004-2007, presents the state of erosion in the basin before erosion control works; type and scope of erosion control works and their effect on the intensity of erosion in the river Toplica basin upstream of the future storage 'Selova'.

The use of edaphic parameters as indicators of soil erosion risk, Rambla of Las Moreras (SE Spain); El uso de parametros edaficos como indicadores de riesgo de erosion. Rambla de Las Moreras, Murcia, Se de Espana

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romero Diaz, A.; Quinonero Rubio, J. M.; Ortiz Silla, R.; Sanchez Navarro, A.; Fernandez-Delgado Juarez, M.; Gil Vazquez, J. M.

2009-07-01

One factor that more involved in the soil erosion soil is erodibility. In this paper we study some parameters (texture, structure, organic material, profundity and vegetal cover in the basin of Rambla de las Moreras (Murcia) with the objective of determining whether any of them can server of erosion risk indicators. the results sampling as the organic matter and the stability of aggregates can be good indicators of this. (Author) 6 refs.

Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

Numerical study of impact erosion of multiple solid particle

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Chao; Liu, Yonghong; Chen, Cheng; Qin, Jie; Ji, Renjie; Cai, Baoping

2017-11-01

Material erosion caused by continuous particle impingement during hydraulic fracturing results in significant economic loss and increased production risks. The erosion process is complex and has not been clearly explained through physical experiments. To address this problem, a multiple particle model in a 3D configuration was proposed to investigate the dynamic erosion process. This approach can significantly reduce experiment costs. The numerical model considered material damping and elastic-plastic material behavior of target material. The effects of impact parameters on erosion characteristics, such as plastic deformation, contact time, and energy loss rate, were investigated. Based on comprehensive studies, the dynamic erosion mechanism and geometry evolution of eroded crater was obtained. These findings can provide a detailed erosion process of target material and insights into the material erosion caused by multiple particle impingement.

Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

2012-01-01

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

Radiological risk associated with a fire scenario in a radioactive waste deposit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Domingos, E.N.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, L.A., E-mail: aguiar.lais@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

A fire at the disposal of radioactive waste can result in significant damage, as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The norms of CNEN (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear), CNEN 2.03; CNEN 2.04 and CNEN 8.02 include fire protection regulations and have criteria and requirements that aim to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive and/or toxic mate-rial present in the installations. For decision making due to a fire scenario containing radioactive material, it is fundamental to have information that can allow the estimate of the dose to which the population will be submitted. This work proposes to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system using the BEIR V model, associated with a fire scenario containing radioactive material generated in the Hotspot code. (author)

A method for modeling the effects of climate and land use changes on erosion and sustainability of soil in a Mediterranean watershed (Languedoc, France).

Science.gov (United States)

Paroissien, Jean-Baptiste; Darboux, Frédéric; Couturier, Alain; Devillers, Benoît; Mouillot, Florent; Raclot, Damien; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2015-03-01

Global climate and land use changes could strongly affect soil erosion and the capability of soils to sustain agriculture and in turn impact regional or global food security. The objective of our study was to develop a method to assess soil sustainability to erosion under changes in land use and climate. The method was applied in a typical mixed Mediterranean landscape in a wine-growing watershed (75 km(2)) within the Languedoc region (La Peyne, France) for two periods: a first period with the current climate and land use and a second period with the climate and land use scenarios at the end of the twenty-first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B future rainfall scenarios from the Météo France General circulation model was coupled with four contrasting land use change scenarios that were designed using a spatially-explicit land use change model. Mean annual erosion rate was estimated with an expert-based soil erosion model. Soil life expectancy was assessed using soil depth. Soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy were combined into a sustainability index. The median simulated soil erosion rate for the current period was 3.5 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 273 years, showing a low sustainability of soils. For the future period with the same land use distribution, the median simulated soil erosion rate was 4.2 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 249 years. The results show that soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy are more sensitive to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation. Among the scenarios tested, institution of a mandatory grass cover in vineyards seems to be an efficient means of significantly improving soil sustainability, both in terms of decreased soil erosion rates and increased soil life expectancies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A GIS-based estimation of soil erosion parameters for soil loss potential and erosion hazard in the city of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo

Science.gov (United States)

Tshikeba Kabantu, Martin; Muamba Tshimanga, Raphael; Onema Kileshye, Jean Marie; Gumindoga, Webster; Tshimpampa Beya, Jules

2018-05-01

Soil erosion has detrimental impacts on socio economic life, thus increasing poverty. This situation is aggravated by poor planning and lack of infrastructure especially in developing countries. In these countries, efforts to planning are challenged by lack of data. Alternative approaches that use remote sensing and geographical information systems are therefore needed to provide decision makers with the so much needed information for planning purposes. This helps to curb the detrimental impacts of soil erosion, mostly emanating from varied land use conditions. This study was carried out in the city of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo with the aim of using alternative sources of data, based on earth observation resources, to determine the spatial distribution of soil loss and erosion hazard in the city of Kinshasa. A combined approach based on remote sensing skills and rational equation of soil erosion estimation was used. Soil erosion factors, including rainfall-runoff erosivity R), soil erodibility (K), slope steepness and length (SL), crop/vegetation and management (C) were calculated for the city of Kinshasa. Results show that soil loss in Kinshasa ranges from 0 to 20 t ha-1 yr-1. Most of the south part of the urban area were prone to erosion. From the total area of Kinshasa (996 500 ha), 25 013 ha (2.3 %) is of very high ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) risk of soil erosion. Urban areas consist of 4.3 % of the area with very high ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) risk of soil erosion compared to a very high risk of 2.3 % ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) in the rural area. The study shows that the soil loss in the study area is mostly driven by slope, elevation, and informal settlements.

Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall erosivity in a Himalayan watershed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ma, X.; Noordwijk, van M.; Xu, J.; Lu, X.

2014-01-01

Global climate change can modify rainfall patterns, leading to more extremes with associated erosion events. Rainfall erosivity, or the R-factor based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), indicates the potential water erosion risk and it plays an important role in water and soil

Dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents: A 2.5-year longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Brusius, C D; Alves, L S; Susin, C; Maltz, M

2018-02-01

This population-based longitudinal study investigated the incidence, progression and risk factors for dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents. Eight hundred and one schoolchildren attending 42 public and private schools were clinically examined at 12 years of age; clinical examinations were repeated after 2.5 years (SD=0.3). After tooth cleaning and drying, permanent incisors and first molars were classified using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) scoring criteria. Questionnaires were used to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, dietary habits, toothbrushing frequency and general health. Poisson regression analysis was used to assess the association between dental erosion incidence and explanatory variables, with adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) and 95% CI estimated. Among those who did not have dental erosion at baseline, 49 of 680 schoolchildren (7.1%; 95% CI=5.2-9.1) developed erosive lesions over the follow-up period. Among schoolchildren who had dental erosion at baseline, 31 of 121 (25.4%; 95% CI=17.6-33.3) had new or more severe lesions. Boys were more likely to develop dental erosion than girls (IRR=1.88; 95% CI=1.06-3.32). A moderate incidence of dental erosion was observed among South Brazilian adolescents, with boys being at higher risk. The high progression rate of 25% observed here is very concerning, and it should be taken in consideration when designing preventive strategies for dental erosion. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Women's Drinking Decisions in Heterosocial Situations: Development and Validation of Scenarios to Assess Influence of Attraction and Risk-Awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Nora E; Ogle, Richard L; Maisto, Stephen A; Jackson, Lee A; Loomis, Randi B; Heaton, Jennifer A

2016-07-01

These three related studies created a set of ecologically valid scenarios for assessing relative associations of both attraction and sexual coercion risk-recognition in college women's heterosocial situational drinking decisions. The first study constructed nine scenarios using input from heterosexual drinking women in the age cohort (18-30) most likely to experience alcohol-related sexual coercion. In the second study, 50 female undergraduates (ages 18-25) assessed the salience of three important dimensions (attraction, risk, and realism) in these scenarios. The third study was a factor analysis (and a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis) of the elements of coercion-risk as perceived by the target group with two female samples recruited 1 year apart (Sample 1: N = 157, ages 18-29); Sample 2: N = 157, ages 18-30). Results confirmed that the scenarios could be a useful vehicle for assessing how women balance out risk and attraction to make in-the moment heterosocial drinking decisions. The factor analysis showed participants perceived two types of situations, based on whether the male character was "Familiar" or "Just Met" and perceived themselves as happier and more excited with Familiar males. However, in contrast to HIV risk studies, Familiar males were perceived as higher risk for unwanted sex. Future research will use the six scenarios that emerged from the factor analysis to study how attraction and risk perception differentially affect young adult women's social drinking decisions.

A Quantitative Method for Long-Term Water Erosion Impacts on Productivity with a Lack of Field Experiments: A Case Study in Huaihe Watershed, China

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Degen Lin

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Water erosion causes reduced farmland productivity, and with a longer period of cultivation, agricultural productivity becomes increasingly vulnerable. The vulnerability of farmland productivity needs assessment due to long-term water erosion. The key to quantitative assessment is to propose a quantitative method with water loss scenarios to calculate productivity losses due to long-term water erosion. This study uses the agricultural policy environmental extender (APEX model and the global hydrological watershed unit and selects the Huaihe River watershed as a case study to describe the methodology. An erosion-variable control method considering soil and water conservation measure scenarios was used to study the relationship between long-term erosion and productivity losses and to fit with 3D surface (to come up with three elements, which are time, the cumulative amount of water erosion and productivity losses to measure long-term water erosion. Results showed that: (1 the 3D surfaces fit significantly well; fitting by the 3D surface can more accurately reflect the impact of long-term water erosion on productivity than fitting by the 2D curve (to come up with two elements, which are water erosion and productivity losses; (2 the cumulative loss surface can reflect differences in productivity loss caused by long-term water erosion.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Optimizing land use pattern to reduce soil erosion

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Reza Sokouti

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion hazard is one of the main problems can affect ecological balance in watersheds. This study aimed to determine the optimal use of land to reduce erosion and increase the resident's income of Qushchi watershed in West Azerbaijan province, Iran. Income and expenses for the current land uses were calculated with field studies. Damages resulting from the soil erosion were estimated by soil depth equal to the specified land uses. For three different options including the current status of land uses without and with land management, and the standard status of land uses, multi-objective linear programming model was established by LINGO software. Then the optimization problem of the land use was solved by simplex method. Finally, the best option of land use was determined by comparing erosion rate and its cost in each scenario. Then the circumstances and the recommended conditions were compared. The results indicated that the current surface area of current land uses is not suitable to reduce erosion and increase income of residents and should change in the optimum conditions. At the optimum level, there should change horticulture area of 408 to 507 (ha, irrigated land area of 169 to 136 (ha and dry farming of 636 to 570 (ha, while conversion of rangeland area not indispensable. In addition, the results showed that in case of the optimization of land use, soil erosion and the profitability of the whole area will decrease 0.75% and increase 3.68%, respectively. In case of land management practices, soil erosion will decrease 42.27% and the profitability increase 21.39% while in the standard conditions, soil erosion will decrease 60.95% and profitability will increase 24.20%. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the changes in the horticulture and range land areas have the greatest impact on the increasing profitability and reducing soil erosion of Qushchi watershed. So, it is recommended using Education and Extension to promote

Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

2017-02-01

Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

Natural potential of erosion in the periurbane area of São Carlos - SP

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Fábio G. Pedro

2004-07-01

Full Text Available The population growth in urban areas is speeding up the opening of new land parceling, which due to the emergencial characteristics has been done without proper land use planning. This intensive and non-ordered antropic occupation of the urban perimeter is inducing serious erosion problems. To minimize environmental impacts of new antropic occupations is necessary to obtain information of the physical environment properties, mainly related to erosion risk factors. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE developed in the USA has been widely used for the American land use planning and allows determining areas with higher erosion risk in urban areas. The soil and climate (rain parameters joined to the topography, indicate the Natural Erosion Potential of the USLE, when the antropic influence is not taken into consideration. It was done a Natural Erosion Potential map of the urban perimeter of São Carlos city (Brazil, in the scale of 1:10,000 using IDRISI 32 GIS, aiming to indicate the higher risk areas to erosion. The map of Natural Erosion Potential (PNE allowed identifying that the lowest values of PNE occurred at the Northeast, of the studied region, where the land could be used for urban expansion. By the other hand it was found that at Southwest and Southeast the values of PNE, were high, indicating them to be areas not favorable to urban expansion due to higher erosion risk.

Estimating soil erosion risk and evaluating erosion control measures for soil conservation planning at Koga watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Molla, Tegegne; Sisheber, Biniam

2017-01-01

Soil erosion is one of the major factors affecting sustainability of agricultural production in Ethiopia. The objective of this paper is to estimate soil erosion using the universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model and to evaluate soil conservation practices in a data-scarce watershed region. For this purpose, soil data, rainfall, erosion control practices, satellite images and topographic maps were collected to determine the RUSLE factors. In addition, measurements of randomly selected soil and water conservation structures were done at three sub-watersheds (Asanat, Debreyakob and Rim). This study was conducted in Koga watershed at upper part of the Blue Nile basin which is affected by high soil erosion rates. The area is characterized by undulating topography caused by intensive agricultural practices with poor soil conservation practices. The soil loss rates were determined and conservation strategies have been evaluated under different slope classes and land uses. The results showed that the watershed is affected by high soil erosion rates (on average 42 t ha-1 yr-1), greater than the maximum tolerable soil loss (18 t ha-1 yr-1). The highest soil loss (456 t ha-1 yr-1) estimated from the upper watershed occurred on cultivated lands of steep slopes. As a result, soil erosion is mainly aggravated by land-use conflicts and topographic factors and the rugged topographic land forms of the area. The study also demonstrated that the contribution of existing soil conservation structures to erosion control is very small due to incorrect design and poor management. About 35 % out of the existing structures can reduce soil loss significantly since they were constructed correctly. Most of the existing structures were demolished due to the sediment overload, vulnerability to livestock damage and intense rainfall. Therefore, appropriate and standardized soil and water conservation measures for different erosion-prone land uses and land forms need to be implemented in Koga

Protection From Dental Erosion: All Fluorides are Not Equal.

Science.gov (United States)

Faller, Robert V; Noble, Warden H

2018-03-01

All fluoride sources help strengthen teeth against bacterial acids that cause caries. However, excessive exposure to dietary acids, which can result in dental erosion, presents a more aggressive level of challenge compared to caries. Despite the fact that almost all toothpastes contain fluoride, both the incidence and prevalence of dental erosion appear to be on the rise. This article: (1) describes key differences between caries and dental erosion and the ability of different fluoride sources to help prevent erosion; (2) discusses the importance of the evaluation of patients for dental erosion at the earliest stages using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination scoring system to help assess and educate patients; and (3) provides evidence-based information for making specific recommendations to patients with dental erosion. The objective of this article is to assess the comparative ability of fluoride agents to protect against dental erosion. Though all fluorides are able to help strengthen teeth against cariogenic acids, not all available sources of fluoride provide the same level of erosion protection. Daily use of a stabilized stannous fluoride dentifrice has been shown to provide the most effective means of protecting teeth against the increasing risk of dental erosion and erosive tooth wear.

Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miranda Sara, L.; Jameson, S.; Pfeffer, K.; Baud, I.

2016-01-01

Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities

Risk Management in the AIDS Scenario: Strategies Adopted by Men Who Have Sex with Men in Casual Partnerships

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George Moraes De Luiz

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The focus of this study was on risk management strategies used in the aids scenario. For this purpose the chosen scenario was the sexual practices of men who have sex with other men in casual partnerships. Theoretically, the study was based on the notion of risky life styles in its interface with the health promotion framework. By means of a snowball strategy we located ten men who agreed to be interviewed. These interviews were analyzed using discourse analysis techniques. The results suggest that in all cases information about risk for infection by HIV/STD derived from a diversity of sources were used as repertoires for making sense of risks. The analysis led us to propose that information serves as a safety belt that allows risk taking within a certain margin of safety, even though within a scenario of uncertainty.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Assessing Vulnerability of Lake Erie Landscapes to Soil Erosion: Modelled and Measured Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Joosse, P.; Laamrani, A.; Feisthauer, N.; Li, S.

2017-12-01

Loss of soil from agricultural landscapes to Lake Erie via water erosion is a key transport mechanism for phosphorus bound to soil particles. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin with approximately 75% of the 2.3 million hectares under crop or livestock production. The variable geography and diversity of agricultural production systems and management practices makes estimating risk of soil erosion from agricultural landscapes in the Canadian Lake Erie basin challenging. Risk of soil erosion depends on a combination of factors including the extent to which soil remains bare, which differs with crop type and management. Two different approaches of estimating the vulnerability of landscapes to soil erosion will be compared among Soil Landscapes of Canada in the Lake Erie basin: a modelling approach incorporating farm census and soil survey data, represented by the 2011 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agri-Environmental Indicator for Soil Erosion Risk; and, a measured approach using remotely sensed data that quantifies the magnitude of bare and covered soil across the basin. Results from both approaches will be compared by scaling the national level (1:1 million) Soil Erosion Risk Indicator and the remotely sensed data (30x30 m resolution) to the quaternary watershed level.

Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

2015-01-01

An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

2015-07-01

An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

Using REE tracers to measure sheet erosion changing to rill erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Puling; Xue Yazhou; Song Wei; Wang Mingyi; Ju Tongjun

2004-01-01

Rare Earth Elements (REE) tracer method was used to study sheet erosion changing to rill erosion on slope land. By placing different rare earth elements of different soil depth across a slope in an indoor plot, two simulated rainfalls were applied to study the change of erosion type and the rill erosion process. The results indicate that the main erosion type is sheet erosion at the beginning of the rainfalls, and serious erosion happens after rill erosion appears. Accumulated sheet and rill erosion amounts increase with the rainfalls time. The percentage of sheet erosion amount decreases and rill erosion percentage increases with time. At the end of the rainfalls, the total rill erosion amounts are 4-5 times more than sheet erosion. In this paper, a new REE tracer method was used to quantitatively distinguish sheet and rill erosion amounts. The new REE tracer method should be useful to future studying of erosion processes on slope lands. (authors)

Monitoring and Risk Identification Caused by High Water, Floods and Erosion Processes in Urban Part of Sava Riverbed

Science.gov (United States)

Oskoruš, D.; Miković, N.; Ljevar, I.

2012-04-01

Riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in the upper stream of Sava River. The increasing gradient of those changes is interconnected with the level of human influence in the river basin and riverbed as well. In time period of last forty years the consequences of riverbed erosion are become serious as well as dangerous and they threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. The increasing value of flow velocity in riverbed in urban part of river section during high water level, mud and debris flow during the floods as well, is especially dangerous for old bridges. This paper contains result of velocity measurements during high waters taken by Hydrological Service of Republic Croatia, load transport monitoring during such events and cross sections in some vulnerable location. In this paper is given one example of Jakuševac railway bridge in Zagreb, heavily destroyed during high water event on the 30 March 2009., recently reconstructed by "Croatian Railways" company. Keywords: Riverbed erosion, flow velocity, mud and debris flow, risk identification, stability of bridges

Erosion-corrosion synergistics in the low erosion regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corey, R.G.; Sethi, V.K.

1986-01-01

Many engineering alloys display good high temperature corrosion resistance. However, when they are used in corrosive environments where they are subjected to erosion also, the corrosion resistance has been adversely affected. The phenomenon known as erosion-corrosion is complex and requires detailed investigation of how the erosion and corrosion kinetics interact and compete. At the Kentucky Center for Energy Research Laboratory, an erosion-corrosion tester was used to perform erosion-oxidation tests on 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel at 500-600 0 C using alumina abrasive at low velocities. The erosion-oxidation rate data and morphology of exposed surfaces are consistent with oxide chipping and fracturing being the mode of material loss

Water erosion of dystrophic Red Latosols (Oxisols

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquim Ernesto Bernardes Ayer

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In their natural state, Latosols (Oxisols present great stability and resistance to erosion, being the most abundant and used soils for farming and cattle raising activities in southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. However, along the last one hundred years, they have been submitted to intensive cultivation and managements which favor water erosion. This study aimed to estimate the water erosion rates of dystrophic Red Latosols from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, compared with the soil loss tolerance limits, and assess the impact on water erosion of the managements more common in the region, by alternative conservation management simulation. Soil loss tolerance limits ranged from 8.94 Mg ha-1 year-1 to 9.99 Mg ha-1 year-1, with the study area presenting a susceptibility of soil loss of 23.86 Mg year-1, with an average rate of 8.40 Mg ha-1 year-1, corresponding to 34.80 % of the area with values above the soil loss tolerance limit. The biggest annual losses occur in areas with use and management of eucalyptus grown downhill (30.67 Mg ha-1 year-1 and pasture under continuous occupancy (11.10 Mg ha-1 year-1. However, when the average loss per type of use is considered, the areas more susceptible to water erosion are those with potato and eucalyptus crops, grown downhill, and those in bare soil. Nevertheless, in the simulated conservation management scenario, the average losses would be drastically reduced (8.40 Mg ha-1 year-1 to 2.84 Mg ha-1 year-1 and only 4.00 % of the area with soil loss would remain above the tolerance limits.

Erosion waves: Transverse instabilities and fingering

Science.gov (United States)

Malloggi, F.; Lanuza, J.; Andreotti, B.; Clément, E.

2006-09-01

Two laboratory scale experiments of dry and underwater avalanches of non-cohesive granular materials are investigated. We trigger solitary waves and study the conditions under which the front is transversally stable. We show the existence of a linear instability followed by a coarsening dynamics and finally the onset of a fingering pattern. Due to the different operating conditions, both experiments strongly differ by the spatial and time scales involved. Nevertheless, the quantitative agreement between the stability diagram, the wavelengths selected and the avalanche morphology suggest a common scenario for an erosion/deposition process.

Prevalence of dental erosion among people with gastroesophageal reflux disease in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhao; Liu, Jingming; Chen, Su; Wang, Yao; Zhang, Zhenting

2017-01-01

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is typically diagnosed based on symptoms of regurgitation and heartburn, although it may also manifest as asthma-like symptoms, laryngitis, or dental erosion. The purpose of this prospective, cross-sectional study was to assess the prevalence of dental erosion in people with GERD and to evaluate the association between GERD and dental erosion. The presence, severity, and pattern of dental erosion was assessed in 51 participants with GERD and 50 participants without GERD using the Smith and Knight tooth wear index. Medical, dietary, and dental histories were collected by questionnaire. Factors potentially related to dental erosion, including GERD, were evaluated by logistic regression. Dental erosion was observed in 31 (60.8%) participants with GERD and 14 (28%) participants without GERD. Bivariate analysis revealed that participants with GERD were more likely to experience dental erosion (crude odds ratio [cOR]: 2.74; 95% CI: 1.19, 6.32) than participants without GERD. Multivariate analysis also revealed that participants with GERD had a higher risk of dental erosion (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.97; 95% CI: 1.45, 10.89). Consumption of grains and legumes, the most frequently consumed foods in China, did not correlate with dental erosion. However, carbonated beverage consumption was significantly associated with GERD and dental erosion (aOR: 3.34; 95% CI: 1.01, 11.04; P=.04). GERD was positively correlated with dental erosion. Carbonated beverage consumption can increase the risk of both GERD and dental erosion. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iyer Uma

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Ganjiang River Catchment, China: Characteristics and Influences of Climate Change

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Xianghu Li

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the most critical environmental hazards in the world. Understanding the changes in rainfall erosivity (RE and erosivity density (ED, as well as their affecting factors, at local and catchment scales in the context of climate warming is an important prerequisite of soil erosion prevention and soil loss risk assessment. The present study identified the variability and trends of RE and ED in terms of both time and space in the Ganjiang River catchment over the period of 1960–2012, and also analyzed and discussed the impact of climate change. The results show that RE and ED in the catchment had great monthly variations and high year-to-year variability. Both presented long-term increasing trends over the entire study period. The highest RE and ED were observed in June and in the eastern and northeast parts of the catchment, which indicated that June was the most susceptible month for soil erosion in this area and the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River was the riskiest area for soil erosion. Finally, the East Asian summer monsoon and climate change were highly correlated with changes in RE and ED.

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

Comparison of the transportation risks for the spent fuel in Korea for different transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jongtae; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W.

2011-01-01

According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. At the start of the operation of the final repository (FR), by the year 2065, transport will then take place between the CISF and the FR. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios for a maritime transportation by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. And, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of PWR and PHWR spent fuels by road trailers from the CISF and the FR. From the results of this study, we found that risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of the spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

2008-01-01

This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management—Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leon J. van Ruiten

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from flood protection to flood risk management in Europe. It implies two major governance challenges: the spatial turn and the scenario approach. This contribution studies the implementation of these two governance challenges in the Netherlands, where the paradigm shift is considered to be advanced. Therefore, the spatial turn and the scenario approach are operationalized. The spatial turn consists of three aspects: space for the river, an integrated approach, and beyond structural measures. The scenario approach introduces the vulnerability of society in flood risk management. It is discussed how the challenges of spatial turn and the scenario approach—and thus the shift towards flood risk management—have an effect on the prevailing modes of governance in water management in the Netherlands. This helps understand the tensions and frictions with implementing the plans, but also illustrates how the European Floods Directive institutionalizes the shift towards flood risk management. The analytical scheme, consists mainly of operationalization, can foster future comparative studies with other countries and over time, to trace the changes in approaches to flood risks in Europe.

Using high-resolution radar images to determine vegetation cover for soil erosion assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bargiel, D; Herrmann, S; Jadczyszyn, J

2013-07-30

Healthy soils are crucial for human well-being. Because soils are threatened worldwide, politicians recognize the need for soil protection. For example, the European Commission has launched the Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, which requests the European member states to identify high risk areas for soil degradation. Most states use the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) to assess soil erosion risk at the national scale. The USLE includes different factors, one of them is the vegetation cover and management factor (C factor). Modern satellite-based radar sensors now provide highly accurate vegetation cover data, enabling opportunities to improve the accuracy of the C factor. The presented study proves the suitability for C factor determination based on a multi-temporal classification of high-resolution radar images. Further USLE factors were derived from existing data sources (meteorological data, soil maps, digital elevation model) to conduct an USLE-based soil erosion assessment. The resulting map illustrates a qualitative assessment for soil erosion risk within a plot of about 7*12 km in an agricultural region in Poland that is very susceptible to soil erosion processes. A high erosion risk of more than 10 tonnes per ha and year was assessed to occur on 13.6% (646 ha) of the agricultural areas within the investigated plot. Further 7.8% (372 ha) of agricultural land is threaten by a medium risk of 5-10 tonnes per ha and year. Such a spatial information about areas of high or medium soil erosion risk are crucial for the development of strategies for the protection of soils. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intravesical midurethral sling mesh erosion secondary to transvaginal mesh reconstructive surgery

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Sukanda Bin Jaili

2015-05-01

Conclusion: Repeated vaginal reconstructive surgery may jeopardize a primary mesh or sling, and pose a high risk of mesh erosion, which may be delayed for several years. Removal of the mesh erosion and bladder repair are feasible pervaginally with good outcome.

A terminological matter: paragenesis, antigravitative erosion or antigravitational erosion ?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pasini G.

2009-07-01

Full Text Available In the speleological literature three terms are utilized to designate the “ascending erosion”: paragenesis (= paragénésis, coined in1968, antigravitative erosion (= erosione antigravitativa, coined in 1966 and antigravitational erosion (wrong English translation ofthe Italian term erosione antigravitativa, utilized later on. The term paragenesis should be abandoned because of the priority of theterm erosione antigravitativa - on the ground of the “law of priority” – and because of its ambiguous etimology. On the other hand,the term antigravitational erosion should be forsaken in favour of the term antigravitative erosion, given the meaning that the termsgravitation and gravity have in Physics. Therefore, to designate the phenomenon of the “ascending erosion” there would be nothingleft but the term antigravitative erosion.The antigravitative erosion process and its recognizability are illustrated.Examples of caves with evident antigravitative erosion phenomena, developed in different karstifiable rocks and in several partsof the world, are given.It is recalled that the antigravitative erosion is a phenomenon well-known since 1942 and widely proven and supported, and that it isrelatively easy – in many cases - to recognize the antigravitative origin of karstic passages.It is stressed that the antigravitative erosion is an important phenomenon, exclusive of the karstic caves and unique in nature.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and

Dental Erosion in Children with Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

De Oliveira, Patricia Alves Drummond; Paiva, Saul Martins; De Abreu, Mauro Henrique Nogueira Guimarães; Auad, Sheyla Márcia

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) on dental erosion (DE) in children and analyze the association between dental erosion and diet, oral hygiene, and sociodemographic characteristics. This case-control study encompassed 43 two- to 14-year-olds diagnosed positive for GERD by the 24-hour pH monitoring, paired by age group with 136 healthy controls, in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. DE was assessed by one calibrated examiner using the O'Sullivan index. A questionnaire was self-administered by parents collecting information regarding sociodemographics, oral hygiene, and dietary habits. Dental erosion experience was compared between the groups, and a stratified analysis was performed (PDental erosion was diagnosed in 10.6 percent (N equals 19) of all the children; 25.6 percent (N equals 11) of GERD children and 5.9 percent (N equals eight) of children without GERD, P=0.001). Dental erosion was not associated with dietary consumption or sociodemographic characteristics in both groups (P≥0.05). Children who used adult toothpaste had a 5.79 higher chance of having dental erosion in the group with GERD. Children diagnosed with gastroesophageal reflux disease were at an increased risk of having dental erosion when compared to healthy subjects; among the GERD children, dental erosion was associated with the use of adult toothpaste.

Modeling the fluid/soil interface erosion in the Hole Erosion Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kissi B.

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon which yields at its final stage to insidious fluid leakages under the hydraulic infrastructures known as piping and which are the main cause of their rupture. The Hole Erosion Test is commonly used to quantify the rate of piping erosion. In this work, The Hole Erosion Test is modelled by using Fluent software package. The aim is to predict the erosion rate of soil during the hole erosion test. The renormalization group theory – based k–ε turbulence model equations are used. This modelling makes it possible describing the effect of the clay concentration in flowing water on erosion. Unlike the usual one dimensional models, the proposed modelling shows that erosion is not uniform erosion along the hole length. In particular, the concentration of clay is found to increase noticeably the erosion rate.

Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

2015-04-01

and biodiversity conservation value were assessed using the Spearman rank correlation. The current delivery of hydrological services in the Vez watershed is higher at the high and low mountain sub-basins, with lower provision in the valley. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and the oak scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine scenario, which performs better for flood regulation and erosion control, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. However, this scenario is the one with more spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value, especially inside protected areas. Several strategies may be suggested for effective land use planning in the Vez watershed. Eucalyptus/pine is the scenario with the best results for flood regulation and soil erosion control, associated to the positive revenues from the pulp production industry. However, cautions should be taken regarding strategies for biodiversity conservation (preferably by favoring native oak species), as well as the potential increase in fire risk. This study highlights SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping hydrological services generated at the watershed scale, therefore contributing to improve the options for land management.

Impact of night-shift work on the prevalence of erosive esophagitis in shipyard male workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Tae Heum; Lee, Jiho; Kim, Moon Chan

2016-08-01

Whether night-shift work is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux disease is controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between night-shift work and other factors, and erosive esophagitis. A cross-sectional study with 6040 male shipyard workers was performed. Esophagogastroduodenoscopic examination and a survey about night-shift work status, lifestyle, medical history, educational status, and marital status were conducted in all workers. The odds ratios of erosive esophagitis according to night-shift work status were calculated by using the logistic regression model. The prevalence of erosive esophagitis increased in the night-shift workers [odds ratio, 95 % confidence interval: 1.41 (1.03-1.94)]. According to multiple logistic regression models, night-shift work, obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption of ≥140 g/week were significant risk factors for erosive esophagitis. By contrast, Helicobacter pylori infection was negatively associated with erosive esophagitis. Night-shift work is suggested to be a risk factor for erosive esophagitis. Avoidance of night-shift work and lifestyle modification should be considered for prevention and management of gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Prevalence of Dental Erosion among the Young Regular Swimmers in Kaunas, Lithuania.

Science.gov (United States)

Zebrauskas, Andrius; Birskute, Ruta; Maciulskiene, Vita

2014-04-01

To determine prevalence of dental erosion among competitive swimmers in Kaunas, the second largest city in Lithuania. The study was designed as a cross-sectional survey, with a questionnaire and clinical examination protocols. The participants were 12 - 25 year-old swimmers regularly practicing in the swimming pools of Kaunas. Of the total of 132 participants there were 76 (12 - 17 year-old) and 56 (18 - 25 year-old) individuals; in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. Participants were examined for dental erosion, using a portable dental unit equipped with fibre-optic light, compressed air and suction, and standard dental instruments for oral inspection. Lussi index was applied for recording dental erosion. The completed questionnaires focused on the common erosion risk factors were returned by all participants. Dental erosion was found in 25% of the 12 - 17 year-olds, and in 50% of 18 - 25 years-olds. Mean value of the surfaces with erosion was 6.31 (SD 4.37). All eroded surfaces were evaluated as grade 1. Swimming training duration and the participants' age correlated positively (Kendall correlation, r = 0.65, P dental erosion and the analyzed risk factors (gastroesophageal reflux disease, frequent vomiting, dry mouth, regular intake of acidic medicines, carbonated drinks) was found in both study groups. Prevalence of dental erosion of very low degree was high among the regular swimmers in Kaunas, and was significantly related to swimmers' age.

Utility of combined high-resolution bone SPECT and MRI for the identification of rheumatoid arthritis patients with high-risk for erosive progression

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchbender, Christian, E-mail: christian.buchbender@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Sewerin, Philipp, E-mail: philipp.sewerin@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Mattes-György, Katalin, E-mail: katalin.mattes@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Miese, Falk, E-mail: falk.miese@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Wittsack, Hans-Joerg, E-mail: hans-joerg.wittsack@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Specker, Christof, E-mail: c.specker@kliniken-essen-sued.de [Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Kliniken Essen-Sud, Propsteistrasse 2, D-45239 Essen (Germany); Antoch, Gerald, E-mail: antoch@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Müller, Hans-Wilhelm, E-mail: HansW.Mueller@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Schneider, Matthias, E-mail: matthias.schneider@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Scherer, Axel, E-mail: scherer@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Ostendorf, Benedikt, E-mail: ostendorf@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany)

2013-02-15

Objectives: To evaluate the utility of sequentially acquired, post hoc fused, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and multi-pinhole single photon emission computed tomography (MPH-SPECT) with technetium-99m-labeled disphosphonates (Tc99m-DPD) for the identification of finger joints with later erosive progression in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) patients. Methods: Ten consecutive ERA patients prospectively underwent MPH-SPECT and MRI of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints prior to and after 6 months methotrexate therapy. Tc99m-DPD uptake was measured at proximal and distal MCP sites using regional analysis. The course of joint pathologies was scored according to the Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Score (RAMRIS) criteria. Results: The frequency of increased Tc99m-DPD uptake, synovitis and bone marrow edemadecreased under MTX therapy; but the number of bone erosions increased. Joints with progressive and new erosions on follow-up had a higher baseline Tc99m-DPD uptake (2.64 ± 1.23 vs. 1.43 ± 0.91) (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Joints with erosive progression are characterized by an early increased Tc99m-DPD uptake, even in absence of MRI bone pathologies. Tc99m-DPD MPH-SPECT might thus be of additional value to morphological MRI for the identification of RA patients with a high risk for erosive progression.

Terraced landscape: from an old best practice to a rising land abandoned-related soil erosion risk

Science.gov (United States)

Tarolli, Paolo; Preti, Federico; Romano, Nunzio

2013-04-01

Among the most evident landscape signatures of human fingerprint during the Holocene, the terraces related to agricultural activities deserve a great importance. Landscape terracing probably represents one of the oldest best practice primarily for crop production, but also for mitigating soil erosion and stabilizing hillslopes in landforms dominated by steep slopes. This technique is widely used in various parts of the world even under different environmental conditions. In some zones, terraced landscapes, because of their history and locations, can also be considered a historical heritage and a sort of "cultural landscape" to preserve, an absolutely value for tourism. To preserve their original role of soil erosion prevention, terraces should be properly designed built according to specific and sustainable engineering rules. Then, their maintenance is the most critical issue to deal with. It is well known from literature that terraced landscapes subject to abandonment would result in an increasing of terrace failure and related land degradation. If not maintained, a progressively increasing of gully erosion affects the structure of the walls. The results of this process is the increasing of connectivity and runoff. During the last few years and partly because of changing in the society perspective and migration toward metropolitan areas, some Countries have been affected by a serious and wider land abandonment with an increasing of soil erosion and derived landslide risk. Italy is one example. In this work, we consider three typical case studies of a terraced landscape where the lack of maintenance characterizing the last few years, increased the landslide risk with several problems to the population. The first case study is located along the renowed "Amalfi Coast" (a portion of land located near Salerno, southern Italy), the second is placed in the north of Toscana (a region located in Central Italy), and the third one along the so-called "Cinque Terre" (a region

Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

2007-01-01

Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

Investigation of UK Farmer Go/No-Go Decisions in Response to Tractor-Based Risk Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Amy; Poots, Jill

2018-01-01

Tractors are a source of injury and fatality in agriculture. Despite this farmers continue to engage in risk-taking behaviors, including operating tractors without appropriate equipment. In order to change behaviors and attitudes toward safety, it is important to understand how farmers approach different types of risk relevant to tractor use. The current study used a qualitative approach to investigate farmer perception of four types of tractor-based risk related to self, equipment, lack of safety features, and environment. A sample of 148 farmers from the United Kingdom and Ireland was recruited from farming forums to take part in an online scenario-based qualitative study. Participants were presented with 12 tractor-based scenarios, three from each category of risk, and asked to indicate if they would proceed to use the tractor (go) or not (no-go), then report their reasoning. Thematic analysis was used to identify data patterns. Farmers appeared to assess the consequences of risk in broader terms than the risk of injury to themselves; they also evaluated risk in terms of potential costs (e.g., repair bill) and losses (e.g., delay). Analysis indicated that financial risk was considered with more caution than personal risk in many cases. Farmers also considered usability, such as the functionality of tractor seat belts, indicating the importance of ensuring all safety equipment is fit for purpose. The management of agricultural risk should consider farmer priorities (such as financial costs) in order to develop effective messaging that focuses on those priorities, with the aim of reducing risk-taking behaviors.

THE WATER FROM NATURE AND THE EROSION PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. PANDI

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The water from nature and the erosion process. Studying earth's surface erosion process is necessary for practical reasons. The theoretical approach requires knowledge of the alluvial system’s structure and operation as the cascade sequence of fluvial system’s mass and energy. Geosystem research methodology requires that the water energy and the role of adjacent surface must be expressed. The expression of water power can be grouped according to the shape of movement and action in the basin. A particular, important case is the energy variation in a basin-slope. An important role in energy expressions is considering the existence in nature of biphasic fluid - water as dispersion phase and solid particles as dispersed phase. The role of the adjacent surface is taken into account by using the erosion resistance indicator, which is calculated using the indicator of geological resistance and the indicator of plant protection. The evolution of natural systems, therefore of river basins too, leads to energy diminishing, thus affecting their dynamic balance. This can be expressed using the concept of entropy. Although erosion processes are usual natural phenomena for the evolution of river basins, they induce significant risks in certain circumstances. Depending on the circulated water energies, water basins can be ranked in terms of potential risks.

ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

2017-01-01

A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

2010-01-01

This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion during Hole Erosion Tests

OpenAIRE

Mercier, F.; Bonelli, S.; Golay, F.; Anselmet, F.; Philippe, P.; Borghi, R.

2015-01-01

This study focuses on the numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion of a cohesive soil by a turbulent flow in axisymmetrical geometry, with application to the Hole Erosion Test (HET). The numerical model is based on adaptive remeshing of the water/soil interface to ensure accurate description of the mechanical phenomena occurring near the soil/water interface. The erosion law governing the interface motion is based on two erosion parameters: the critical shear stress and the erosion co...

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Uncertainty in soil carbon accounting due to unrecognized soil erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderman, Jonathan; Chappell, Adrian

2013-01-01

The movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during erosion and deposition events represents a major perturbation to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the recognized impact soil redistribution can have on the carbon cycle, few major carbon accounting models currently allow for soil mass flux. Here, we modified a commonly used SOC model to include a soil redistribution term and then applied it to scenarios which explore the implications of unrecognized erosion and deposition for SOC accounting. We show that models that assume a static landscape may be calibrated incorrectly as erosion of SOC is hidden within the decay constants. This implicit inclusion of erosion then limits the predictive capacity of these models when applied to sites with different soil redistribution histories. Decay constants were found to be 15-50% slower when an erosion rate of 15 t soil ha(-1)  yr(-1) was explicitly included in the SOC model calibration. Static models cannot account for SOC change resulting from agricultural management practices focused on reducing erosion rates. Without accounting for soil redistribution, a soil sampling scheme which uses a fixed depth to support model development can create large errors in actual and relative changes in SOC stocks. When modest levels of erosion were ignored, the combined uncertainty in carbon sequestration rates was 0.3-1.0 t CO2  ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This range is similar to expected sequestration rates for many management options aimed at increasing SOC levels. It is evident from these analyses that explicit recognition of soil redistribution is critical to the success of a carbon monitoring or trading scheme which seeks to credit agricultural activities. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Water erosion and climate change in a small alpine catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Berteni, Francesca; Grossi, Giovanna

2017-04-01

WATER EROSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALL ALPINE CATCHMENT Francesca Berteni, Giovanna Grossi A change in the mean and variability of some variables of the climate system is expected to affect the sediment yield of mountainous areas in several ways: for example through soil temperature and precipitation peak intensity change, permafrost thawing, snow- and ice-melt time shifting. Water erosion, sediment transport and yield and the effects of climate change on these physical phenomena are the focus of this work. The study area is a small mountainous basin, the Guerna creek watershed, located in the Central Southern Alps. The sensitivity of sediment yield estimates to a change of condition of the climate system may be investigated through the application of different models, each characterized by its own features and limits. In this preliminary analysis two different empirical mathematical models are considered: RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1991) and EPM (Erosion Potential Method; Gavrilovic, 1988). These models are implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) supporting the management of the territorial database used to estimate relevant geomorphological parameters and to create different thematic maps. From one side the geographical and geomorphological information is required (land use, slope and hydrogeological instability, resistance to erosion, lithological characterization and granulometric composition). On the other side the knowledge of the weather-climate parameters (precipitation and temperature data) is fundamental as well to evaluate the intensity and variability of the erosive processes and estimate the sediment yield at the basin outlet. Therefore different climate change scenarios were considered in order to tentatively assess the impact on the water erosion and sediment yield at the small basin scale. Keywords: water erosion, sediment yield, climate change, empirical mathematical models, EPM, RUSLE, GIS

Effect of endurance training on dental erosion, caries, and saliva.

Science.gov (United States)

Frese, C; Frese, F; Kuhlmann, S; Saure, D; Reljic, D; Staehle, H J; Wolff, D

2015-06-01

The aim of this investigation was to give insights into the impact of endurance training on oral health, with regard to tooth erosion, caries, and salivary parameters. The study included 35 triathletes and 35 non-exercising controls. The clinical investigation comprised oral examination, assessment of oral status with special regard to caries and erosion, saliva testing during inactivity, and a self-administered questionnaire about eating, drinking, and oral hygiene behavior. In addition, athletes were asked about their training habits and intake of beverages and sports nutrition. For saliva assessment during exercise, a subsample of n = 15 athletes volunteered in an incremental running field test (IRFT). Athletes showed an increased risk for dental erosion (P = 0.001). No differences were observed with regard to caries prevalence and salivary parameters measured during inactivity between athletes and controls. Among athletes, a significant correlation was found between caries prevalence and the cumulative weekly training time (r = 0.347, P = 0.04). In athletes after IRFT and at maximum workload, saliva flow rates decreased (P = 0.001 stimulated; P = 0.01 unstimulated) and saliva pH increased significantly (P = 0.003). Higher risk for dental erosions, exercise-dependent caries risk, and load-dependent changes in saliva parameters point out the need for risk-adapted preventive dental concepts in the field of sports dentistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohong Li

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

Economic scenarios for the real estate market: Incorporating uncertainty and risk in real estate appraisals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carsten Lausberg

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Real estate appraisal is usually regarded as both a science and an art: “science” because the appraiser uses mathematical calculations and other objective elements, “art” because he also uses his experience and other subjective elements. This dual character requires—among others—that new insights from other disciplines and current trends are taken into account. The central proposition of the article is that this requirement is not met. The author provides evidence that real estate risk management has made tremendous progress since the mid-1990s which has not found its way into appraisal practice, thereby creating a situation where appraisals by risk analysts differ greatly from appraisals by real estate appraisers. According to the author the gap between real estate appraisal and risk analysis should be closed from both sides. The article begins with an overview of the most important trends which will impact real estate values in the future. From these trends, an exemplary economic scenario for European real estate markets is derived in order to demonstrate that scenario writing is a powerful tool for risk management. After that the author discusses some other methods of risk management and their potential benefits for real estate appraisal.

Quantitative assessment of consequences of natural events for the performance of waste disposal isolation system. On consequences of natural events in groundwater scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

1999-02-01

This year, first, on seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion, climate change and human activity (intrusion) scenarios, while effects of those scenarios were primarily evaluated in reference cases last year, variant cases with another kind of patterns of models and parameters compared to reference cases, have been studied and set, and their effects have been analyzed and evaluated. Secondly, referring to the results of the above discussions, a preliminary study was made to evaluate the complex effect caused by combining natural events such as volcanism, seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion and climate change, where discussions have been made on which combined scenario was more important and how to set the analysis framework. (author)

Dental erosion and its association with diet in Libyan schoolchildren.

Science.gov (United States)

Huew, R; Waterhouse, P J; Moynihan, P J; Kometa, S; Maguire, A

2011-10-01

To investigate any association between dental erosion and its potential dietary risk factors in a group of schoolchildren in Benghazi, Libya. A cross-sectional observational study. A random sample of 12-year-old schoolchildren in 36 randomly selected schools completed a questionnaire to provide dietary data and underwent dental examination. Dental erosion was assessed using UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2000) criteria. Associations between erosion and dietary variables under study were investigated through processes of bivariate and multivariate analyses. Of 791 schoolchildren dentally examined, 40.8% had dental erosion; erosion into enamel affecting 32.5%, into dentine affecting 8% and into pulp affecting 0.3% of subjects. Bivariate analysis showed frequency of fruit-based sugary drink intake was statistically significantly and positively associated with erosion (p=0.006, Odds Ratio; 1.498, 95% CI; 1.124, 1.996) as was the length of time taken to consume acidic drinks (p≠0.005, Odds Ratio; 1.593, 95%CI; 1.161, 2.186). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed frequency of consumption of fruit other than bananas, sugared tea with milk and flavoured milk to also be positively associated with erosion (p=dental erosion.

Investigation of Local Hydrogen Risk in the RDT Compartment of OPR1000 under SBO Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Nam Kyung; Jeon, Joon Goo; Choi, Won Jun; Song, Kyu Sang; Jeun, Gyoo Dong; Kim, Sung Joong

2016-01-01

As TMI-2 and Fukushima accidents revealed, a high concentration of hydrogen in a nuclear power plant (NPP) could cause hydrogen combustion. In order to take follow-up measures, an average and local hydrogen concentration in the NPP containment are regulated below 0.1 using hydrogen mitigation system such as igniter and/or passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR). During a severe accident, some compartments of the NPP containment temporarily may show peaks of the local hydrogen concentration over 0.1 depending on the geometry of the containment structure and hydrogen transportation path. For example, the compartment of a reactor drain tank (RDT) is connected to the pressurizer nozzle and if the relieved pressure drives the significant amount of steam and hydrogen, then substantial peaks of the hydrogen concentration can occur. Before the RPV failure under SBO scenario, the RDT compartment was the main region for hydrogen release due to the RDT break. Therefore, confirming the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment is very important to verify the integrity of the NPP containment. In this study, the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment of OPR1000 under SBO scenario was evaluated using MELCOR 1.8.6 code in terms of the hydrogen volume fraction and the Shapiro diagram. (1) The RDT compartment showed the peaks of the hydrogen volume fraction over 0.1. As a future work, the local hydrogen risk of the compartment of a steam generator (SG) needs to be analyzed under SBLOCA scenario. Because the SG compartment is also a main region of hydrogen release under SBLOCA scenario. In the long run, the analysis for the detailed hydrogen distribution, based on detailed modeling of the whole OPR1000 containment, needs to be performed.

Soil erosion assessment using geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) study from Ankara-Guvenc Basin, Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Dengiz, Orhan; Yakupoglu, Tugrul; Baskan, Oguz

2009-05-01

The objective of this research was to assess vulnerable soil erosion risk with qualitative approach using GIS in Ankara-Guvenc Basin. The study area is located about 44 km north of Ankara and covers 17.5 km2. The selected theme layers of this model include topographic factor, soil factors (depth, texture, impermeable horizon) and land use. Slope layer and land use-land cover data were prepared by using DEM and Landsat-TM satellite image. According to land use classification, the most common land use type and land cover are rangeland (50.5%) then, rainfed (36.4%), week forest land (3.2%), irrigated land (0.7%) and other various lands (rock out crop and lake) (9.2%). Each land characteristic is also considered as a thematic layer in geographical information systems (GIS) process. After combination of the layers, soil erosion risk map was produced. The results showed that 44.4% of the study area is at high soil erosion risk, whereas 42% of the study area is insignificantly and slightly susceptible to erosion risk. In addition, it was found that only 12.6% of the total area is moderately susceptible to erosion risk. Furthermore, conservation land management measures were also suggested for moderate, high and very high erosion risk areas in Ankara-Guvenc Basin.

The extreme risk of personal data breaches and the erosion of privacy

Science.gov (United States)

Wheatley, Spencer; Maillart, Thomas; Sornette, Didier

2016-01-01

Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an extreme risk. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are stored by organisations and on-line, and the attack surface surrounding this data becomes larger and harder to secure. Further, breached information is distributed and accumulates in the hands of cyber criminals, thus driving a cumulative erosion of privacy. Statistical modeling of breach data from 2000 through 2015 provides insights into this risk: A current maximum breach size of about 200 million is detected, and is expected to grow by fifty percent over the next five years. The breach sizes are found to be well modeled by an extremely heavy tailed truncated Pareto distribution, with tail exponent parameter decreasing linearly from 0.57 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2015. With this current model, given a breach contains above fifty thousand items, there is a ten percent probability of exceeding ten million. A size effect is unearthed where both the frequency and severity of breaches scale with organisation size like s0.6. Projections indicate that the total amount of breached information is expected to double from two to four billion items within the next five years, eclipsing the population of users of the Internet. This massive and uncontrolled dissemination of personal identities raises fundamental concerns about privacy.

Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

2002-01-01

Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons.

Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

1999-01-01

In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

2010-01-01

E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

Comparison of risk-dominant scenario assumptions for several TRU waste facilities in the DOE complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foppe, T.L.; Marx, D.R.

1999-01-01

In order to gain a risk management perspective, the DOE Rocky Flats Field Office (RFFO) initiated a survey of other DOE sites regarding risks from potential accidents associated with transuranic (TRU) storage and/or processing facilities. Recently-approved authorization basis documents at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) have been based on the DOE Standard 3011 risk assessment methodology with three qualitative estimates of frequency of occurrence and quantitative estimates of radiological consequences to the collocated worker and the public binned into three severity levels. Risk Class 1 and 2 events after application of controls to prevent or mitigate the accident are designated as risk-dominant scenarios. Accident Evaluation Guidelines for selection of Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs) are based on the frequency and consequence bin assignments to identify controls that can be credited to reduce risk to Risk Class 3 or 4, or that are credited for Risk Class 1 and 2 scenarios that cannot be further reduced. This methodology resulted in several risk-dominant scenarios for either the collocated worker or the public that warranted consideration on whether additional controls should be implemented. RFFO requested the survey because of these high estimates of risks that are primarily due to design characteristics of RFETS TRU waste facilities (i.e., Butler-type buildings without a ventilation and filtration system, and a relatively short distance to the Site boundary). Accident analysis methodologies and key assumptions are being compared for the DOE sites responding to the survey. This includes type of accidents that are risk dominant (e.g., drum explosion, material handling breach, fires, natural phenomena, external events, etc.), source term evaluation (e.g., radionuclide material-at-risk, chemical and physical form, damage ratio, airborne release fraction, respirable fraction, leakpath factors), dispersion analysis (e.g., meteorological

Probabilistic estimation of dune erosion and coastal zone risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, F.

2014-01-01

Coastal erosion has gained global attention and has been studied for many decades. As a soft sea defence structure, coastal sandy dunes protect coastal zones all over the world, which usually are densely populated areas with tremendous economic value. The coastal zone of the Netherlands, one of the

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Relationships between soil erosion risk, soil use and soil properties in Mediterranean areas. A comparative study of three typical sceneries

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Juan; Priego-Navas, Mercedes; Zavala, Lorena M.; Jordán, Antonio

2013-04-01

Generally, literature shows that the high variability of rainfall-induced soil erosion is related to climatic differences, relief, soil properties and land use. Very different runoff rates and soil loss values have been reported in Mediterranean cropped soils depending on soil management practices, but also in soils under natural vegetation types. OBJECTIVES The aim of this research is to study the relationships between soil erosion risk, soil use and soil properties in three typical Mediterranean areas from southern Spain: olive groves under conventional tillage, minimum tillage and no-till practices, and soils under natural vegetation. METHODS Rainfall simulation experiments have been carried out in order to assess the relationship between soil erosion risk, land use, soil management and soil properties in olive-cropped soils under different types of management and soils under natural vegetation type from Mediterranean areas in southern Spain RESULTS Results show that mean runoff rates decrease from 35% in olive grove soils under conventional tillage to 25% in olive (Olea europaea) grove soils with minimum tillage or no-till practices, and slightly over 22% in soils under natural vegetation. Moreover, considering the different vegetation types, runoff rates vary in a wide range, although runoff rates from soils under holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia), 25.70%, and marginal olive groves , 25.31%, are not significantly different. Results from soils under natural vegetation show that the properties and nature of the organic residues play a role in runoff characteristics, as runoff rates above 50% were observed in less than 10% of the rainfall simulations performed on soils with a organic layer. In contrast, more than half of runoff rates from bare soils reached or surpassed 50%. Quantitatively, average values for runoff water losses increase up to 2.5 times in unprotected soils. This is a key issue in the study area, where mean annual rainfall is above 600 mm

Using a dynamic model to assess trends in land degradation by water erosion in Spanish Rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Ibáñez, Javier; Francisco Lavado-Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne; Pulido-Fernández, Manuel; Martínez Valderrama, Jaime

2014-05-01

This work presents a model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesas and montados of the Iberian Peninsula, that constitute valuable rangelands in the area. A multidisciplinary dynamic model was built including weather, biophysical and economic variables that reflect the main causes and processes affecting sheet erosion on hillsides of the study areas. The model has two main and two derived purposes: Purpose 1: Assessing the risk of degradation that a land-use system is running. Derived purpose 1: Early warning about land-use systems that are particularly threatened by degradation. Purpose 2: Assessing the degree to which different factors would hasten degradation if they changed from the typical values they show at present. Derived purpose 2: Evaluating the role of human activities on degradation. Model variables and parameters have been calibrated for a typical open woodland rangeland (dehesa or montado) defined along 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms and distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The model is the basis for a straightforward assessment methodology which is summarized by the three following points: i) The risk of losing a given amount of soil before a given number of years was specifically estimated as the percentage of 1000 simulations where such a loss occurs, being the simulations run under randomly-generated scenarios of rainfall amount and intensity and meat and supplemental feed market prices; ii) Statistics about the length of time that a given amount of soil takes to be lost were calculated over 1000 stochastic simulations run until year 1000, thereby ensuring that such amount of soil has been lost in all of the simulations, i.e. the total risk is 100%; iii) Exogenous factors potentially affecting degradation, mainly climatic and economic, were ranked in order of importance by means of a sensitivity analysis. Particularly remarkable in terms of model performance is the major role

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

2017-01-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

2017-01-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Managing dental erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Donald A; Jayanetti, Jay; Chu, Raymond; Staninec, Michal

2012-01-01

The clinical signs of dental erosion are initially subtle, yet often progress because the patient remains asymptomatic, unaware and uninformed. Erosion typically works synergistically with abrasion and attrition to cause loss of tooth structure, making diagnosis and management complex. The purpose of this article is to outline clinical examples of patients with dental erosion that highlight the strategy of early identification, patient education and conservative restorative management. Dental erosion is defined as the pathologic chronic loss of dental hard tissues as a result of the chemical influence of exogenous or endogenous acids without bacterial involvement. Like caries or periodontal disease, erosion has a multifactorial etiology and requires a thorough history and examination for diagnosis. It also requires patient understanding and compliance for improved outcomes. Erosion can affect the loss of tooth structure in isolation of other cofactors, but most often works in synergy with abrasion and attrition in the loss of tooth structure (Table 1). Although erosion is thought to be an underlying etiology of dentin sensitivity, erosion and loss of tooth structure often occurs with few symptoms. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to outline existing barriers that may limit early management of dental erosion. Second, to review the clinical assessment required to establish a diagnosis of erosion. And third, to outline clinical examples that review options to restore lost tooth structure. The authors have included illustrations they hope will be used to improve patient understanding and motivation in the early management of dental erosion.

Prevalence of Dental Erosion among the Young Regular Swimmers in Kaunas, Lithuania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrius Zebrauskas

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To determine prevalence of dental erosion among competitive swimmers in Kaunas, the second largest city in Lithuania. Material and Methods: The study was designed as a cross-sectional survey, with a questionnaire and clinical examination protocols. The participants were 12 - 25 year-old swimmers regularly practicing in the swimming pools of Kaunas. Of the total of 132 participants there were 76 (12 - 17 year-old and 56 (18 - 25 year-old individuals; in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. Participants were examined for dental erosion, using a portable dental unit equipped with fibre-optic light, compressed air and suction, and standard dental instruments for oral inspection. Lussi index was applied for recording dental erosion. The completed questionnaires focused on the common erosion risk factors were returned by all participants. Results: Dental erosion was found in 25% of the 12 - 17 year-olds, and in 50% of 18 - 25 years-olds. Mean value of the surfaces with erosion was 6.31 (SD 4.37. All eroded surfaces were evaluated as grade 1. Swimming training duration and the participants’ age correlated positively (Kendall correlation, r = 0.65, P < 0.001, meaning that older swimmers had practiced for longer period. No significant correlation between occurrence of dental erosion and the analyzed risk factors (gastroesophageal reflux disease, frequent vomiting, dry mouth, regular intake of acidic medicines, carbonated drinks was found in both study groups. Conclusions: Prevalence of dental erosion of very low degree was high among the regular swimmers in Kaunas, and was significantly related to swimmers’ age.

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps

A near real time scenario at regional scale for the hydrogeological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Zauri, R.; Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Moramarco, T.; Salciarini, D.; Tamagnini, C.

2012-04-01

The early warning systems dedicated to landslides and floods represent the Umbria Region Civil Protection Service new generation tools for hydraulic and hydrogeological risk reduction. Following past analyses performed by the Functional Centre (part of the civil protection service dedicated to the monitoring and the evaluation of natural hazards) on the relationship between saturated soil conditions and rainfall thresholds, we have developed an automated early warning system for the landslide risk, called LANDWARN, which generates daily and 72h forecast risk matrix with a dense mesh of 100 x 100m, throughout the region. The system is based on: (a) the 20 days -observed and 72h -predicted rainfall, provided by the local meteorological network and the Local scale Meteorological Model COSMO ME, (b) the assessment of the saturation of soils by: daily extraction of ASCAT satellite data, data from a network of 16 TDR sensors, and a water balance model (developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, CNR, Perugia, Italy) that allows for the prediction of a saturation index for each point of the analysis grid up to a window of 72 h, (c) a Web-GIS platform that combines the data grids of calculated hazard indicators with layers of landslide susceptibility and vulnerability of the territory, in order to produce dynamic risk scenarios. The system is still under development and it's implemented at different scales: the entire region, and a set of known high-risk landslides in Umbria. The system is monitored and regularly reviewed through the back analysis of landslide reports for which the activation date is available. Up to now, the development of the system involves: a) the improvement of the reliability assessment of the condition of soil saturation, a key parameter which is used to dynamically adjust the values of rainfall thresholds used for the declaration of levels of landslide hazard. For this purpose, a procedure was created for the ASCAT

Heel erosion and other interdigital disorders in dairy cows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enevoldsen, Carsten; Gröhn, Y.T.; Thysen, Iver

1991-01-01

Epidemiologic associations between variables obtainable from dairy cow records and the occurrence of heel erosion, interdigital dermatitis, and interdigital hyperplasia at claw trimmings were estimated with multivariable logistic regression analysis on data from 1170 and 542 cows in lactation 1...... and lactations 2 to 9, respectively. In the 17 herds, heel erosion, interdigital dermatitis, and hyperplasia occurred among 43.8, 4.5, and .9% of cows in lactation 1 and among 69.1, 7.6 and 5.9% of cows in lactations 2 to 9, respectively. Severity of heel erosion increased with parity, and risk increased...... with stage of lactation. Strong seasonal effects were present. Various combinations of veterinary treatments were associated with heel erosion and hyperplasia depending on parity, stage of lactation, and the presence of other claw disorders. In contrast, veterinary treatment had a protective effect...

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Mediterranean area. This spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall erosivity at European scale is very important for policy makers and farmers for soil conservation, optimization of agricultural land use and natural hazards prediction. REDES is also used in combination with future rainfall data from WorldClim to run climate change scenarios. The projection of REDES combined with climate change scenarios (HADGEM2, RCP4.5) and using a robust geo-statistical model resulted in a 10-20% increase of the R-factor in Europe till 2050.

Worldwide Experience with Erosion of the Magnetic Sphincter Augmentation Device.

Science.gov (United States)

Alicuben, Evan T; Bell, Reginald C W; Jobe, Blair A; Buckley, F P; Daniel Smith, C; Graybeal, Casey J; Lipham, John C

2018-04-17

The magnetic sphincter augmentation device continues to become a more common antireflux surgical option with low complication rates. Erosion into the esophagus is an important complication to recognize and is reported to occur at very low incidences (0.1-0.15%). Characterization of this complication remains limited. We aim to describe the worldwide experience with erosion of the magnetic sphincter augmentation device including presentation, techniques for removal, and possible risk factors. We reviewed data obtained from the device manufacturer Torax Medical, Inc., as well as the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database. The study period was from February 2007 through July 2017 and included all devices placed worldwide. In total, 9453 devices were placed and there were 29 reported cases of erosions. The median time to presentation of an erosion was 26 months with most occurring between 1 and 4 years after placement. The risk of erosion was 0.3% at 4 years after device implantation. Most patients experienced new-onset dysphagia prompting evaluation. Devices were successfully removed in all patients most commonly via an endoscopic removal of the eroded portion followed by a delayed laparoscopic removal of the remaining beads. At a median follow-up of 58 days post-removal, there were no complications and 24 patients have returned to baseline. Four patients reported ongoing mild dysphagia. Erosion of the LINX device is an important but rare complication to recognize that has been safely managed via minimally invasive approaches without long-term consequences.

From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

2015-12-01

Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

Dental caries and its association with diet and dental erosion in Libyan schoolchildren.

Science.gov (United States)

Huew, Rasmia; Waterhouse, Paula; Moynihan, Paula; Kometa, Simon; Maguire, Anne

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND. The change towards a more Westernised diet in Libya may increase the risk of caries and erosion in children. AIMS. To investigate any association between dental caries, dental erosion, and potential dietary risk factors in Libyan schoolchildren. METHODS. A random sample of 791 schoolchildren aged 12 years underwent dental examination for caries and erosion and completed a questionnaire to provide dietary data. Dental caries was assessed using the WHO (Oral Health Surveys: Basic Methods, 1997) criteria. Erosion was assessed using UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS, Young People Aged 4-18 years. Volume 2: Report of the Oral Health Survey, 2000) criteria. Associations between caries and dietary variables were investigated through bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS. Of the 791 12-year olds, 57.8% (457) had caries experience and 40.8% (323) had experience of erosion. One hundred and ninety-two subjects (42%) of the subjects with caries experience also had erosion, whilst 131 subjects (39.2%) of the 334 without caries had clinical signs of erosion (P = 0.464; OR, 1.123; 95% CI, 0.842, 1.497). There was no statistically significantly relationship between dental caries and dental erosion. Frequency of consumption of fruit-based sugared drinks was statistically significantly positively associated with experience of caries (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS. Dental caries experience was associated with frequency of consumption of sugared dietary items but not with dental erosion. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2011 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparison of erosion and erosion control works in Macedonia, Serbia and Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Blinkov

2013-12-01

Natural conditions in the Balkan countries contribute to the appearance of various erosion forms and the intensity of the erosion processes. Over the history of these countries, people who settled this region used the available natural resources to fill their needs (tree cutting, incorrect plugging, overgrazing, which contributed to soil erosion. Organized erosion control works in the Balkans started in the beginning of the 20th century (1905 in Bulgaria. The highest intensity of erosion control works were carried out during the period 1945 – 1990. Various erosion control works were launched. Bulgaria had a large anti-erosion afforestation, almost 1 million ha. Bulgaria's ecological river restoration approach has been in use for almost 50 years. Serbia contributed significant erosion and torrent control works on hilly agricultural areas. Specific screen barrages and afforestation on extremely dry areas are characteristic in Macedonia. A common characteristic for all countries is a high decrease in erosion control works in the last 20 years.

Erosion-corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aghili, B.

1999-05-01

A literature study on erosion-corrosion of pipings in the nuclear industry was performed. Occurred incidents are reviewed, and the mechanism driving the erosion-corrosion is described. Factors that influence the effect in negative or positive direction are treated, as well as programs for control and inspection. Finally, examples of failures from databases on erosion-corrosion are given in an attachment

Alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium in Japanese men

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Goto Ayumu

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence regarding the association between alcohol consumption and the gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD spectrum has been conflicting. We examined the association between alcohol consumption and erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium in Japanese men. Methods The study population comprised 463 men subjects who had undergone an upper endoscopy at the Gastroenterology Division of Yokohama City University Hospital between August 2005 and July 2006. The presence of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium was diagnosed based on the Los Angeles Classification and the Prague C and M Criteria, respectively. We divided the study population into four groups: never drinkers, light drinkers (less than 25.0 g of ethanol per day, moderate drinkers (25.0 to 50.0 g of ethanol per day, and heavy drinkers (more than 50.0 g of ethanol per day. A linear regression of the logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the dose-response trends. Results Compared with never drinkers, light drinkers (less than 25.0 g ethanol per day, moderate drinkers (25.0 to 50.0 g per day, and heavy drinkers (more than 50.0 g per day had ORs for erosive esophagitis of 1.110 (95% CI: 0.553 – 2.228, p = 0.7688, 1.880 (95% CI: 1.015 – 3.484, p = 0.0445 and 1.988 (95% CI: 1.120 – 3.534, p = 0.0190, respectively. These groups had ORs for Barrett's epithelium of 1.278 (95% CI: 0.752 – 2.170, p = 0.3643, 1.458 (95% CI: 0.873 – 2.433, p = 0.1500, and 1.912 (95% CI: 1.185 – 3.086, p = 0.0079, respectively. The odds ratios/grams (alcohol/day of dose response trends for erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium were 1.015 (95% CI: 1.004–1.026, p = 0.0066 and 1.012 (95% CI: 1.003–1.021, p = 0.0079, respectively. Conclusion These findings suggest that alcohol consumption in Japanese men tends to be associated with an increased risk of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium.

Quantification Of Erosion Rates Of Agriculturally Used Soils By Artificial

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, Abhinand

2010-05-01

0.0.1 1. Introduction to soil erosion measurement by radionuclides Soil erosion by water, wind and tillage affects both agriculture and the natural environment. Studying this phenomenon would be one of the advancements in science. Soil erosion occurs worldwide and since the last two decades it has been a main topic of discussion all over the world. The use of environmental radionuclides such as 90Sr, 137Cs to study medium term soil erosion (40 yrs) started in the early 1990's. Using these new techniques better knowledge about erosion can be gained and this knowledge can be implemented for erosion risk management. The erosion and sedimentation study by using man-made and natural radioisotopes is a key technique, which has developed over the past 30 years. Fallout 137Cs and Cosmogenic 7Be are radionuclides that have been used to provide independent measurements of soil-erosion and sediment-deposition rates and patterns [1] [2] [3] [4]. Erosion measurements using radionuclides 137Cs, 7Be Caesium-137 from atmospheric nuclear-weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s (Fig.1) is a unique tracer of erosion and sedimentation, since there are no natural sources of 137Cs. Unique events such as the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 caused regional dispersal of 137Cs that affects the total global deposition budget. This yearly pattern of fallout can be used to develop a chronology of deposition horizons in lakes, reservoirs, and floodplains. 137Cs can be easily measured by gamma spectroscopy. Using 137Cs is a fast and cheap method to study erosion-deposition processes compared to the traditional methods like silt bags. PIC Figure 1: Global 137Cs fallout (Modified from SAAS Bulletin 353, Part E, DDR, 1986) When 137Cs, 7Be reach the soil surface by wet and dry deposition, they are quickly and strongly adsorbed by ion exchange and are essentially non exchangeable in most environments. Each radionuclide is distributed differently in the soil because of differences in half-lives (30 yrs

Dental erosion in 12-year-old school children living in Jakarta

Science.gov (United States)

Septalita, A.; Bahar, A.; Agustanti, A.; Rahardjo, A.; Maharani, D. A.; Rosalien, R.

2017-08-01

This study assesses the dental erosion status of 12-year-old Indonesian children and studies the determinants of dental erosion of these children. The survey was performed in 2016 with ethics approval. A multistage cluster proportional to size random sampling method was adopted to select 12-year-old children in 24 primary schools in Jakarta. The parents were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire concerning their children’s diet and oral health habits. The children were examined by a single calibrated examiner. Detection of dental erosion followed basic erosive wear examination (BEWE) criteria. A total of 487 children participated in the survey. Most children (88%) had at least some signs of erosion (BEWE > 0), with dentin being involved in 50% of the cases (BEWE = 2). Dental erosion was significantly related to gender, the frequencies of citric tea consumption, parent’s dental knowledge, father’s education, and dental caries (OR = 3.148). The 12-year-old Indonesian school children who lived in Jakarta had signs of erosion, although severe erosion was not found. Screening programs should be provided to identify risk groups so early preventive measures can be taken.

Separation of dry and wet periods from regular weather station data for the analysis of wind erosion risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naeini, Mohammadali Saremi; Fister, Wolfgang; Heckrath, Goswin Johann

importance, soil moisture content is often ignored in the analysis of wind data for wind erosion studies. The main reason most probably being the lack of soil moisture sensors in conventional climate stations. Soil moisture at a given point in time is determined by rain (e.g. rainfall amount, duration......), climate (e.g. air temperature, solar radiation, evaporation) and soil (e.g. infiltration rate, adhesion). The purpose of this study is to overcome the lack of soil moisture data for wind erosion risk assessment by developing a method to estimate the soil wetness based on easy available weather data......, such as daily precipitation, hourly/sub hourly ambient air temperature and hourly/sub hourly relative humidity. This new method was used to identify periods of wet and dry soil moisture conditions of a time series from 20 weather stations in Denmark. The length of the time series varied between 8 to 37 years...

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suchithra Naish

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Prevalence of dental erosion in adolescent competitive swimmers exposed to gas-chlorinated swimming pool water.

Science.gov (United States)

Buczkowska-Radlińska, J; Łagocka, R; Kaczmarek, W; Górski, M; Nowicka, A

2013-03-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the prevalence of dental erosion among competitive swimmers of the local swimming club in Szczecin, Poland, who train in closely monitored gas-chlorinated swimming pool water. The population for this survey consisted of a group of junior competitive swimmers who had been training for an average of 7 years, a group of senior competitive swimmers who had been training for an average of 10 years, and a group of recreational swimmers. All subjects underwent a clinical dental examination and responded to a questionnaire regarding aspects of dental erosion. In pool water samples, the concentration of calcium, magnesium, phosphate, sodium, and potassium ions and pH were determined. The degree of hydroxyapatite saturation was also calculated. Dental erosion was found in more than 26 % of the competitive swimmers and 10 % of the recreational swimmers. The lesions in competitive swimmers were on both the labial and palatal surfaces of the anterior teeth, whereas erosions in recreational swimmers developed exclusively on the palatal surfaces. Although the pH of the pool water was neutral, it was undersaturated with respect to hydroxyapatite. The factors that increase the risk of dental erosion include the duration of swimming and the amount of training. An increased risk of erosion may be related to undersaturation of pool water with hydroxyapatite components. To decrease the risk of erosion in competitive swimmers, the degree of dental hydroxyapatite saturation should be a controlled parameter in pool water.

Social Networks and Workplace Risk: Classroom Scenarios from a U.S. and EU Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Perry; Mansfield, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

The explosion of social networks and the growing concern over privacy in the digital age--both in the United States and Europe--have provided an opportunity to introduce students to the legal risks of using social media in the workplace. This article builds on the authors' classroom experiences and provides social media scenarios and projects that…

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Huttenlau

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

Can control of soil erosion mitigate water pollution by sediments?

Science.gov (United States)

Rickson, R J

2014-01-15

The detrimental impact of sediment and associated pollutants on water quality is widely acknowledged, with many watercourses in the UK failing to meet the standard of 'good ecological status'. Catchment sediment budgets show that hill slope erosion processes can be significant sources of waterborne sediment, with rates of erosion likely to increase given predicted future weather patterns. However, linking on-site erosion rates with off-site impacts is complicated because of the limited data on soil erosion rates in the UK and the dynamic nature of the source-pathway-receptor continuum over space and time. Even so, soil erosion control measures are designed to reduce sediment production (source) and mobilisation/transport (pathway) on hill slopes, with consequent mitigation of pollution incidents in watercourses (receptors). The purpose of this paper is to review the scientific evidence of the effectiveness of erosion control measures used in the UK to reduce sediment loads of hill slope origin in watercourses. Although over 73 soil erosion mitigation measures have been identified from the literature, empirical data on erosion control effectiveness are limited. Baseline comparisons for the 18 measures where data do exist reveal erosion control effectiveness is highly variable over time and between study locations. Given the limitations of the evidence base in terms of geographical coverage and duration of monitoring, performance of the different measures cannot be extrapolated to other areas. This uncertainty in effectiveness has implications for implementing erosion/sediment risk reduction policies, where quantified targets are stipulated, as is the case in the EU Freshwater Fish and draft Soil Framework Directives. Also, demonstrating technical effectiveness of erosion control measures alone will not encourage uptake by land managers: quantifying the costs and benefits of adopting erosion mitigation is equally important, but these are uncertain and difficult to

Modelling the effect of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon stocks: does soil erosion matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Nadeu, Elisabet; Van Wesemael, Bas; Van Oost, Kristof

2014-05-01

Over the last decades, an increasing number of studies have been conducted to assess the effect of soil management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. At regional scales, biogeochemical models such as CENTURY or Roth-C have been commonly applied. These models simulate SOC dynamics at the profile level (point basis) over long temporal scales but do not consider the continuous lateral transfer of sediment that takes place along geomorphic toposequences. As a consequence, the impact of soil redistribution on carbon fluxes is very seldom taken into account when evaluating changes in SOC stocks due to agricultural management practices on the short and long-term. To address this gap, we assessed the role of soil erosion by water and tillage on SOC stocks under different agricultural management practices in the Walloon region of Belgium. The SPEROS-C model was run for a 100-year period combining three typical crop rotations (using winter wheat, winter barley, sugar beet and maize) with three tillage scenarios (conventional tillage, reduced tillage and reduced tillage in combination with additional crop residues). The results showed that including soil erosion by water in the simulations led to a general decrease in SOC stocks relative to a baseline scenario (where no erosion took place). The SOC lost from these arable soils was mainly exported to adjacent sites and to the river system by lateral fluxes, with magnitudes differing between crop rotations and in all cases lower under conservation tillage practices than under conventional tillage. Although tillage erosion plays an important role in carbon redistribution within fields, lateral fluxes induced by water erosion led to a higher spatial and in-depth heterogeneity of SOC stocks with potential effects on the soil water holding capacity and crop yields. This indicates that studies assessing the effect of agricultural management practices on SOC stocks and other soil properties over the landscape should

Erosive osteoarthritis: a more severe form of radiographic hand osteoarthritis rather than a distinct entity?

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Michelle; Nicholls, Elaine; Kwok, Wing-Yee; Peat, George; Kloppenburg, Margreet; van der Windt, Danielle; Myers, Helen; Dziedzic, Krysia

2015-01-01

Objectives To determine whether erosive osteoarthritis shares the same pattern of joint involvement and risk profile as increasing grades of non-erosive hand osteoarthritis. Methods Participants were from two population-based cohorts, aged ≥50 years, reporting hand symptoms in the previous month. Interphalangeal joints were assessed for erosive osteoarthritis (Verbruggen–Veys erosive or remodelled phase) and radiographic osteoarthritis (sliding cut-offs of K&L≥2, K&L≥3 and K&L=4). At the joint level, similarities in the frequency and pattern of erosive and non-erosive osteoarthritis were assessed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficients and generalised estimating equations. At the person level, individuals with erosive osteoarthritis were compared to those with non-erosive osteoarthritis using logistic regression, adjusted for age and gender (aOR), for the following exposures: family history, previous injury, overuse and metabolic factors (BMI, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes). Results In 1076 symptomatic participants the ranked frequency of involvement for erosive joints was comparable to joints with K&L≥3 and K&L=4 (r>0.95). Patterns of joint involvement in erosive osteoarthritis were strongest for symmetry (aOR=6.5; 95% CI 3.0 to 14.1), followed by row (2.0; 0.8 to 5.0) and ray (0.3; 0.0 to 2.5), which was similar to joints with K&L≥3 and K&L=4. Individuals with erosive osteoarthritis (n=80) had an increased risk of metabolic syndrome (2.7; 1.0 to 7.1), notably dyslipidaemia (4.7; 2.1 to 10.6) compared with non-erosive osteoarthritis classed K&L≥3 (n=193). Conclusions The similar frequency of radiographic joint involvement and patterning in erosive osteoarthritis and more severe non-erosive osteoarthritis is consistent with prevalent erosive osteoarthritis being a severe form of hand osteoarthritis rather than a distinct entity. Metabolic exposures, dyslipidaemia in particular, may be implicated in erosive osteoarthritis. PMID:24095935

Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2016-10-24

for example, the India player felt they had to achieve near-peer military parity with the China and Southwest Asia players before they would invest...the game scenario, we use gender neutral pronouns (e.g., they, their) throughout. 1. David King et al., Climate Change: A Risk Assessment, ed

The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

2017-12-01

Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

A probabilistic approach to modeling postfire erosion after the 2009 Australian bushfires

Science.gov (United States)

P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; F. B. Pierson; D. E. Hall; C. A. Moffet

2009-01-01

Major concerns after bushfires and wildfires include increased flooding, erosion and debris flows due to loss of the protective forest floor layer, loss of water storage, and creation of water repellent soil conditions. To assist postfire assessment teams in their efforts to evaluate fire effects and make postfire treatment decisions, a web-based Erosion Risk...

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

Modeling erosion of unsaturated compacted bentonite by groundwater flow; pinhole erosion test case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurila, T.; Sane, P.; Olin, M.; Koskinen, K.

2012-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. Erosion of compacted clay material by water flow is a critical factor affecting the performance of radioactive waste confinement. Our emphasis in this work is the buffer of KBS-3V concept, proposed to be compacted MX-80 bentonite. Unsaturated erosion occurs during the saturation phase of the EBS, and the main quantity of interest is the total buffer mass carried away by a groundwater flow that induces erosion by forming piping channels near the buffer/rock interface. The purpose of this work is to provide modeling tools to support erosion experiments. Role of modeling is first to interpret experimental observations in terms of processes, and to estimate robustness of experimental results. Secondly, we seek to scale up results from the laboratory scale, particularly to time scales longer than those experimentally accessible. We have performed modeling and data analysis pertaining to tests of unsaturated clay erosion. Pinhole experiments were used to study this erosion case. The main differences to well-understood pinhole erosion tests are that the material is strongly swelling and that the water flow is not determined by the pressure head but by the total flux. Groundwater flow in the buffer is determined by the flux because pressure losses occur overwhelmingly in the surrounding rock, not in the piping channel. We formulate a simple model that links an effective solid diffusivity -based swelling model to erosion by flow on the solid/liquid interface. The swelling model is similar in concept to that developed at KTH, but simpler. Erosion in the model is caused by laminar flow in the pinhole, and happens in a narrow region at the solid/liquid interface where velocity and solid volume fraction overlap. The erosion model can be mapped to erosion by wall shear, and can thus be considered as extension of that classic erosion model. The main quantity defining the behavior of clay erosion in the model is the ratio of

An investigation into the dental health of children with obesity: an analysis of dental erosion and caries status.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, H J; Rudolf, M C J; Muyombwe, T; Duggal, M S; Balmer, R

2014-06-01

To investigate whether children with obesity experienced more erosion and caries than children with normal weight. This study involved children aged 7-15 years. The study and control group comprised 32 children with BMI > 98th centile and 32 healthy children with normal BMI-for-age, respectively. O'Sullivan Erosion Index and WHO Caries Index were used in the examination of erosion and caries, respectively. Stimulated salivary flow rate, buffering capacity, Streptococcus mutans and lactobacilli counts (CFU/ml) were evaluated. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was employed to collect information on participant's demographic background, oral health history and habits, and utilisation of dental care services. Children with obesity were more likely to have erosion than healthy children (p erosion in terms of severity (p erosion (OR 0.32, 95 % CI 0.012-0.082). Gender had no effect on erosion. There were no statistically significant differences in the DMFT, saliva profiles or questionnaire responses between the groups. Children with obesity may have high risk of dental erosion, but do not necessarily have higher risk of dental caries than children with normal weight.

Climate and Landuse Change Impacts on hydrological processes and soil erosion in a dry Mediterranean agro-forested catchment, southern Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Juliana; Nunes, João Pedro; Sampaio, Elsa; Moreira, Madalena; Lima, Júlio; Jacinto, Rita; Corte-Real, João

2014-05-01

Climate change is expected to increase aridity in the Mediterranean rim of Europe, due to decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. This could lead to impacts on soil erosion, since the lower rainfall could nevertheless become concentrated in higher intensity events during the wet season, while the more arid conditions could reduce vegetation cover, also due to climate-induced land-use changes. In consequence, there is an interest in understanding how climate change will affect the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. To study this issue, the SWAT eco-hydrological model was applied to Guadalupe, an agro-forested catchment (446 ha) located close to the city of Évora, with a Mediterranean inland climate. The landcover is a mix of dispersed cork oak forests ("montado"), annual crops, and agroforesty regions where the cork oaks are associated with crops or pasture; this land cover is representative of the dry regions of southern Portugal and Spain. The catchment has been instrumented since 2011 with a hydrometric station (water discharge and suspended sediment concentration data) and a soil moisture measurement station. There is also observed data of actual evapotranspiration, LAI and biomass production (in pasture; from 1999 and 2008) and runoff data and sediment yield measured in six 16m2 plots. Water balance, vegetation growth, soil erosion and sediment yield in SWAT was calibrated with this dataset. This work will present the dataset, modeling process, results for impacts of climate and land-use change scenarios for vegetation growth, soil erosion and sediment export, considering the climate and socio-economic scenarios A1b and B1 (based on SRES storylines). Climate scenarios were created by statistical downscaling from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2071-2100 (30 years). The reference period was 1971-2000 (30 years). The SWAT model was used to

Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

2015-01-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Testing a distributed hydrological model to predict scenarios of extreme events on a marginal olive orchard microcatchment

Science.gov (United States)

Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; Taguas, Encarnación V.

2014-05-01

Olive groves constitute a traditional Mediterranean crop and thus, an important source of income to these regions and a crucial landscape component. Despite its importance, most of the olive groves in the region of Andalusia, Southern Spain, are located in sloping areas, which implies a significant risk of erosion. The combination of data and models allow enhancing the knowledge about processes taking place in these areas as well as the prediction of future scenarios. This aspect might be essential to plan soil protection strategies within a context of climate change where the IPCC estimates a significant increase of soil aridity and torrential events by the end of the century. The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall-runoff-sediment dynamics in a microcatchment olive grove with the aid of a physically-based distributed hydrological model in order to evaluate the effect of extreme events on runoff and erosion. This study will allow to improve land-use and management planning activities in similar areas. In addition, the scale of the study (microcatchment) will allow to contrast the results in larger areas such as catchment regional spatial scales.

Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

2017-05-01

In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Uddin, Kabir; Murthy, M S R; Wahid, Shahriar M; Matin, Mir A

2016-01-01

High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region.

Transrectal Mesh Erosion Requiring Bowel Resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, Marta Maria; Slim, Karem; Rabischong, Benoît; Bourdel, Nicolas; Canis, Michel; Botchorishvili, Revaz

To report a case of a transrectal mesh erosion as complication of laparoscopic promontofixation with mesh repair, necessitating bowel resection and subsequent surgical interventions. Sacrocolpopexy has become a standard procedure for vaginal vault prolapse [1], and the laparoscopic approach has gained popularity owing to more rapid recovery and less morbidity [2,3]. Mesh erosion is a well-known complication of surgical treatment for prolapse as reported in several negative evaluations, including a report from the US Food and Drug Administration in 2011 [4]. Mesh complications are more common after surgeries via the vaginal approach [5]; nonetheless, the incidence of vaginal mesh erosion after laparoscopic procedures is as high as 9% [6]. The incidence of transrectal mesh exposure after laparoscopic ventral rectopexy is roughly 1% [7]. The diagnosis may be delayed because of its rarity and variable presentation. In addition, polyester meshes, such as the mesh used in this case, carry a higher risk of exposure [8]. A 57-year-old woman experiencing genital prolapse, with the cervix classified as +3 according to the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification system, underwent laparoscopic standard sacrocolpopexy using polyester mesh. Subtotal hysterectomy and bilateral adnexectomy were performed concomitantly. A 3-year follow-up consultation demonstrated no signs or symptoms of erosion of any type. At 7 years after the surgery, however, the patient presented with rectal discharge, diagnosed as infectious rectocolitis with the isolation of Clostridium difficile. She underwent a total of 5 repair surgeries in a period of 4 months, including transrectal resection of exposed mesh, laparoscopic ablation of mesh with digestive resection, exploratory laparoscopy with abscess drainage, and exploratory laparoscopy with ablation of residual mesh and transverse colostomy. She recovered well after the last intervention, exhibiting no signs of vaginal or rectal fistula and no recurrence

Self-induced vomiting and dental erosion--a clinical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Uhlen, Marte-Mari; Tveit, Anne Bjørg; Stenhagen, Kjersti Refsholt; Mulic, Aida

2014-07-29

In individuals suffering from eating disorders (ED) characterized by vomiting (e.g. bulimia nervosa), the gastric juice regularly reaches the oral cavity, causing a possible risk of dental erosion. This study aimed to assess the occurrence, distribution and severity of dental erosions in a group of Norwegian patients experiencing self-induced vomiting (SIV). The individuals included in the study were all undergoing treatment at clinics for eating disorders and were referred to a university dental clinic for examinations. One calibrated clinician registered erosions using the Visual Erosion Dental Examination (VEDE) system. Of 72 referred patients, 66 (63 females and three males, mean age 27.7 years) were or had been experiencing SIV (mean duration 10.6 years; range: 3 - 32 years), and were therefore included in the study. Dental erosions were found in 46 individuals (69.7%), 19 had enamel lesions only, while 27 had both enamel and dentine lesions. Ten or more teeth were affected in 26.1% of those with erosions, and 9% had ≥10 teeth with dentine lesions. Of the erosions, 41.6% were found on palatal/lingual surfaces, 36.6% on occlusal surfaces and 21.8% on buccal surfaces. Dentine lesions were most often found on lower first molars, while upper central incisors showed enamel lesions most frequently. The majority of the erosive lesions (48.6%) were found in those with the longest illness period, and 71.7% of the lesions extending into dentine were also found in this group. However, despite suffering from SIV for up to 32 years, 30.3% of the individuals showed no lesions. Dental erosion commonly affects individuals with ED experiencing SIV, and is more often found on the palatal/lingual surfaces than on the buccal in these individuals, confirming a common clinical assumption.

Old age and male sex are associated with increased risk of asymptomatic erosive esophagitis: analysis of data from local health examinations by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Jae Hee; Kim, Hee Man; Ko, Geun Jun; Woo, Myoung Lyeol; Moon, Chang Mo; Kim, Yu Jin; Han, Ki Jun; Song, Si Young; Cho, Hyeon Geun

2011-06-01

Silent gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is often detected during routine screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). However, the risk factors and clinical implications of silent GERD remain unclear. In the present study, we investigated the risk factors for asymptomatic erosive esophagitis by analyzing the local area health examination data. The Korean National Health Insurance Corporation provides a bi-annual health examination performed by qualified local hospitals for the early detection of cancer in medical insurance holders over 40 years of age. Participants who completed self-reported questionnaires on health, followed by EGD at the Myongji Hospital (Goyang, Korea), were enrolled in this study. The data of a total of 5301 participants who underwent EGD between January 2005 and December 2008 were analyzed. The prevalence of erosive esophagitis was 6%. In the multivariate analysis, erosive esophagitis was strongly associated with an age greater than 60 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6-1.0), male sex (OR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.7-3.0), hiatus hernia (OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 2.1-4.0), duodenal ulcer (OR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.5), hypertension (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0), and smoking (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8). Of the 320 participants with erosive esophagitis, 145 (45.3%) were asymptomatic participants, and those who were more frequently greater than 60 years (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.1) and male (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.2). Asymptomatic erosive esophagitis in adults older than 40 years is strongly associated with old age (≥ 60 years) and male sex compared with symptomatic erosive esophagitis. © 2011 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Advances in soil erosion modelling through remote sensing data availability at European scale

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Karydas, Christos; Borrelli, Pasqualle; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin

2014-08-01

Under the European Union's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, the European Commission's Directorate-General for the Environment (DG Environment) has identified the mitigation of soil losses by erosion as a priority area. Policy makers call for an overall assessment of soil erosion in their geographical area of interest. They have asked that risk areas for soil erosion be mapped under present land use and climate conditions, and that appropriate measures be taken to control erosion within the legal and social context of natural resource management. Remote sensing data help to better assessment of factors that control erosion, such as vegetation coverage, slope length and slope angle. In this context, the data availability of remote sensing data during the past decade facilitates the more precise estimation of soil erosion risk. Following the principles of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), various options to calculate vegetative cover management (C-factor) have been investigated. The use of the CORINE Land Cover dataset in combination with lookup table values taken from the literature is presented as an option that has the advantage of a coherent input dataset but with the drawback of static input. Recent developments in the Copernicus programme have made detailed datasets available on land cover, leaf area index and base soil characteristics. These dynamic datasets allow for seasonal estimates of vegetation coverage, and their application in the G2 soil erosion model which represents a recent approach to the seasonal monitoring of soil erosion. The use of phenological datasets and the LUCAS land use/cover survey are proposed as auxiliary information in the selection of the best methodology.

Influence of Intrinsic Factors on Erosive Tooth Wear in a Large-Scale Epidemiological Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Alaraudanjoki, Viivi; Laitala, Marja-Liisa; Tjäderhane, Leo; Pesonen, Paula; Lussi, Adrian; Ronkainen, Jukka; Anttonen, Vuokko

2016-01-01

To assess the influence of self-reported intrinsic factors [gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), long-term alcoholism, long-term heavy use of alcohol and multiple pregnancies] on erosive tooth wear in a middle-aged cohort sample. Of the total Northern Finland Birth Cohort (NFBC 1966), a convenience sample (n = 3,181) was invited for an oral health examination in 2012-2013, of which 1,962 participated, comprising the final study group. Erosive tooth wear was assessed by sextants using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination Index (BEWE, 0-18). Clinical data were supplemented by questionnaires conducted in 1997/1998 and 2012/2013. The participants were divided into severe (BEWE sum ≥9) and no-to-moderate (BEWE sum 0-8) erosive wear groups, and the logistic regression model was applied. Selected intrinsic factors were quite rare in this cohort sample and explained only 5.9% of the difference in the prevalence and severity of erosive wear. Daily symptoms of GERD [odds ratio (OR) 3.8, confidence interval (CI) 1.2-12.0] and hyposalivation (OR 3.8, CI 1.2-11.8) were the strongest risk indicators for severe erosive wear. Additionally, variables associated with an elevated risk for severe erosive wear were diagnosed alcoholism at any point (OR 2.5, CI 0.7-9.7) and self-reported heavy use of alcohol in both questionnaires (OR 2.0, CI 0.6-6.2). Even low-dose long-term consumption of alcohol was associated with erosive wear. In this cohort sample, intrinsic factors such as GERD or alcoholism alone are relatively uncommon causes of erosive tooth wear. The role of long-term use of alcohol in the erosion process may be bigger than presumed. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Basal erosion: barrier to earthquake propagation? Insight from the northern chilean forearc

Science.gov (United States)

Cubas, N.

2017-12-01

Subducted topographic features have often been suspected as barriers to large earthquake propagation. These features would induce basal erosion, leading to a large network of fractures impeding large nucleation or shear localization. Looking for correlation between basal erosion and megathrust ruptures is thus critical nowadays to understand earthquake mechanics and infer rupture scenarios. In this study, we propose to seek possible location of basal erosion from the forearc morphology by applying the critical taper theory. We focus on the North Chile subduction zone that has experienced four major earthquakes during the last two decades and where basal erosion and seamount subduction have already been suspected. Basal erosion should occur when the basal friction approaches the internal friction. We thus seek what part of the forearc is at critical state and select areas for which the two frictions are almost equal. We find a large band, located at 25km depth, from the Mejillones peninsula to the Iquique region at critical state with very high basal friction. The critical areas seem to surround the Tocopilla 2007 Mw 7.7 and the Iquique 2014 Mw 8.1 ruptures. When compared with the interseismic coupling, except for the Tocopilla segment, the critical areas are located in low-coupled zones. More interestingly, the reported normal faults of the forearc do not appear above the erosional areas but rather between them. These normal faults are systematically located above locked patches and seismic asperities. These areas are actually at extensional critical state and characterized by a very low effective friction. We thus suspect the extensional features to be related to earthquakes rather than basal erosion. We then look for similar relationships along the Sumatra subduction zone to see if basal erosion is a common process. The Tocopilla and Iquique earthquakes ruptured only part of the northern Chile seismic gap although the full segment was ready for a new large

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

Genetic risk score predicting risk of rheumatoid arthritis phenotypes and age of symptom onset.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lori B Chibnik

Full Text Available Cumulative genetic profiles can help identify individuals at high-risk for developing RA. We examined the impact of 39 validated genetic risk alleles on the risk of RA phenotypes characterized by serologic and erosive status.We evaluated single nucleotide polymorphisms at 31 validated RA risk loci and 8 Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles among 542 Caucasian RA cases and 551 Caucasian controls from Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II. We created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS and evaluated it as 7 ordinal groups using logistic regression (adjusting for age and smoking to assess the relationship between GRS group and odds of developing seronegative (RF- and CCP-, seropositive (RF+ or CCP+, erosive, and seropositive, erosive RA phenotypes. In separate case only analyses, we assessed the relationships between GRS and age of symptom onset. In 542 RA cases, 317 (58% were seropositive, 163 (30% had erosions and 105 (19% were seropositive with erosions. Comparing the highest GRS risk group to the median group, we found an OR of 1.2 (95% CI = 0.8-2.1 for seronegative RA, 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9-4.7 for seropositive RA, 3.2 (95% CI = 1.8-5.6 for erosive RA, and 7.6 (95% CI = 3.6-16.3 for seropositive, erosive RA. No significant relationship was seen between GRS and age of onset.Results suggest that seronegative and seropositive/erosive RA have different genetic architecture and support the importance of considering RA phenotypes in RA genetic studies.

Relationship between food habits and tooth erosion occurrence in Malaysian University students.

Science.gov (United States)

Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Lee, Mei Tee; Ali, Nor Hazirah Muhammad; Samynathan, Selvamary; Jie, Ying Phor; Ismail, Noor Hasnani; Bibiana Hui Ying, Yong; Wei Seng, Yeo; Yahya, Nurul Asyikin

2012-04-01

Tooth erosion is a growing dental problem; however, the role of diet in the aetiology of tooth erosion is unclear. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the association between tooth erosion occurrence and the consumption of acidic foods and drinks among undergraduate university students. A total of 150 undergraduate students (33 males and 117 females) aged 19 to 24 years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia participated in this study. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination was used to assess the occurrence of tooth erosion. Information regarding dental hygiene practices, usual dietary habits, and consumption of acidic foods and drinks was obtained through a structured questionnaire. In all, 68% of subjects had tooth erosion. Subjects who reported having received information about healthy eating were less likely to have tooth erosion (χ(2) [1, N = 150] = 7.328, P = 0.007). The frequencies of milk (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.13-0.67) and tea/coffee (adjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.19-0.95) consumption were negatively associated with tooth erosion. Dental hygiene practice, the frequency and amount of acidic food and drink intake, and body mass index classification were not significantly associated with the risk of tooth erosion (P > 0.05). A high prevalence of tooth erosion was observed among this group of students. Preventive measures, such as dietary advice and increased consumption of milk at a younger age, may reduce the occurrence of tooth erosion among this age group.

Monitoring and assessment of soil erosion at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests affected by fire damage in northern Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Akbarzadeh, Ali; Ghorbani-Dashtaki, Shoja; Naderi-Khorasgani, Mehdi; Kerry, Ruth; Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, Ruhollah

2016-12-01

Understanding the occurrence of erosion processes at large scales is very difficult without studying them at small scales. In this study, soil erosion parameters were investigated at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests in northern Iran. Surface erosion and some vegetation attributes were measured at the watershed scale in 30 parcels of land which were separated into 15 fire-affected (burned) forests and 15 original (unburned) forests adjacent to the burned sites. The soil erodibility factor and splash erosion were also determined at the micro-plot scale within each burned and unburned site. Furthermore, soil sampling and infiltration studies were carried out at 80 other sites, as well as the 30 burned and unburned sites, (a total of 110 points) to create a map of the soil erodibility factor at the regional scale. Maps of topography, rainfall, and cover-management were also determined for the study area. The maps of erosion risk and erosion risk potential were finally prepared for the study area using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) procedure. Results indicated that destruction of the protective cover of forested areas by fire had significant effects on splash erosion and the soil erodibility factor at the micro-plot scale and also on surface erosion, erosion risk, and erosion risk potential at the watershed scale. Moreover, the results showed that correlation coefficients between different variables at the micro-plot and watershed scales were positive and significant. Finally, assessment and monitoring of the erosion maps at the regional scale showed that the central and western parts of the study area were more susceptible to erosion compared with the western regions due to more intense crop-management, greater soil erodibility, and more rainfall. The relationships between erosion parameters and the most important vegetation attributes were also used to provide models with equations that were specific to the study region. The results of this

The Arctic Coastal Erosion Problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frederick, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Matthew Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Craig A. [Integral Consulting Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-09-01

Permafrost-dominated coastlines in the Arctic are rapidly disappearing. Arctic coastal erosion rates in the United States have doubled since the middle of the twentieth century and appear to be accelerating. Positive erosion trends have been observed for highly-variable geomorphic conditions across the entire Arctic, suggesting a major (human-timescale) shift in coastal landscape evolution. Unfortunately, irreversible coastal land loss in this region poses a threat to native, industrial, scientific, and military communities. The Arctic coastline is vast, spanning more than 100,000 km across eight nations, ten percent of which is overseen by the United States. Much of area is inaccessible by all-season roads. People and infrastructure, therefore, are commonly located near the coast. The impact of the Arctic coastal erosion problem is widespread. Homes are being lost. Residents are being dispersed and their villages relocated. Shoreline fuel storage and delivery systems are at greater risk. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) operate research facilities along some of the most rapidly eroding sections of coast in the world. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is struggling to fortify coastal radar sites, operated to ensure national sovereignty in the air, against the erosion problem. Rapid alterations to the Arctic coastline are facilitated by oceanographic and geomorphic perturbations associated with climate change. Sea ice extent is declining, sea level is rising, sea water temperature is increasing, and permafrost state is changing. The polar orientation of the Arctic exacerbates the magnitude and rate of the environmental forcings that facilitate coastal land area loss. The fundamental mechanics of these processes are understood; their non-linear combination poses an extreme hazard. Tools to accurately predict Arctic coastal erosion do not exist. To obtain an accurate predictive model, a coupling of the influences of

Glaucoma Drainage Device Erosion Following Ptosis Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Steven S; Campbell, Robert J

2017-09-01

To highlight the potential risk of glaucoma drainage device erosion following ptosis surgery. Case report. A 71-year-old man underwent uncomplicated superotemporal Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation in the left eye in 2008. Approximately 8 years later, the patient underwent bilateral ptosis repair, which successfully raised the upper eyelid position. Three months postoperatively, the patient's glaucoma drainage implant tube eroded through the corneal graft tissue and overlying conjunctiva to become exposed. A graft revision surgery was successfully performed with no further complications. Caution and conservative lid elevation may be warranted when performing ptosis repair in patients with a glaucoma drainage implant, and patients with a glaucoma implant undergoing ptosis surgery should be followed closely for signs of tube erosion.

Quantifying and modeling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Wernet, A. K.; Beighley, R. E.

2006-12-01

Soil erosion is a power process that continuously alters the Earth's landscape. Human activities, such as construction and agricultural practices, and natural events, such as forest fires and landslides, disturb the landscape and intensify erosion processes leading to sudden increases in runoff sediment concentrations and degraded stream water quality. Understanding soil erosion and sediment transport processes is of great importance to researchers and practicing engineers, who routinely use models to predict soil erosion and sediment movement for varied land use and climate change scenarios. However, existing erosion models are limited in their applicability to constructions sites which have highly variable soil conditions (density, moisture, surface roughness, and best management practices) that change often in both space and time. The goal of this research is to improve the understanding, predictive capabilities and integration of treatment methodologies for controlling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites. This research combines modeling with field monitoring and laboratory experiments to quantify: (a) spatial and temporal distribution of soil conditions on construction sites, (b) soil erosion due to event rainfall, and (c) potential offsite discharge of sediment with and without treatment practices. Field sites in southern California were selected to monitor the effects of common construction activities (ex., cut/fill, grading, foundations, roads) on soil conditions and sediment discharge. Laboratory experiments were performed in the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL), part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University, to quantify the impact of individual factors leading to sediment export. SERL experiments utilize a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with soil depths up to 1 m, slopes ranging from 0 to 50 percent, and rainfall rates up to 150 mm/hr (6 in/hr). Preliminary modeling, field and laboratory

Mesh erosion after abdominal sacrocolpopexy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohli, N; Walsh, P M; Roat, T W; Karram, M M

1998-12-01

To report our experience with erosion of permanent suture or mesh material after abdominal sacrocolpopexy. A retrospective chart review was performed to identify patients who underwent sacrocolpopexy by the same surgeon over 8 years. Demographic data, operative notes, hospital records, and office charts were reviewed after sacrocolpopexy. Patients with erosion of either suture or mesh were treated initially with conservative therapy followed by surgical intervention as required. Fifty-seven patients underwent sacrocolpopexy using synthetic mesh during the study period. The mean (range) postoperative follow-up was 19.9 (1.3-50) months. Seven patients (12%) had erosions after abdominal sacrocolpopexy with two suture erosions and five mesh erosions. Patients with suture erosion were asymptomatic compared with patients with mesh erosion, who presented with vaginal bleeding or discharge. The mean (+/-standard deviation) time to erosion was 14.0+/-7.7 (range 4-24) months. Both patients with suture erosion were treated conservatively with estrogen cream. All five patients with mesh erosion required transvaginal removal of the mesh. Mesh erosion can follow abdominal sacrocolpopexy over a long time, and usually presents as vaginal bleeding or discharge. Although patients with suture erosion can be managed successfully with conservative treatment, patients with mesh erosion require surgical intervention. Transvaginal removal of the mesh with vaginal advancement appears to be an effective treatment in patients failing conservative management.

Susceptibility of bovine dental enamel with initial erosion lesion to new erosive challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Gabriela Cristina de; Tereza, Guida Paola Genovez; Boteon, Ana Paula; Ferrairo, Brunna Mota; Gonçalves, Priscilla Santana Pinto; Silva, Thiago Cruvinel da; Honório, Heitor Marques; Rios, Daniela

2017-01-01

This in vitro study evaluated the impact of initial erosion on the susceptibility of enamel to further erosive challenge. Thirty bovine enamel blocks were selected by surface hardness and randomized into two groups (n = 15): GC- group composed by enamel blocks without erosion lesion and GT- group composed by enamel blocks with initial erosion lesion. The baseline profile of each block was determined using the profilometer. The initial erosion was produced by immersing the blocks into HCl 0.01 M, pH 2.3 for 30 seconds, under stirring. The erosive cycling consisted of blocks immersion in hydrochloric acid (0.01 M, pH 2.3) for 2 minutes, followed by immersion in artificial saliva for 120 minutes. This procedure was repeated 4 times a day for 5 days, and the blocks were kept in artificial saliva overnight. After erosive cycling, final profile measurement was performed. Profilometry measured the enamel loss by the superposition of initial and final profiles. Data were analyzed by t-test (perosion on bovine dental enamel does not enhance its susceptibility to new erosive challenges.

Susceptibility of bovine dental enamel with initial erosion lesion to new erosive challenges.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Cristina de Oliveira

Full Text Available This in vitro study evaluated the impact of initial erosion on the susceptibility of enamel to further erosive challenge. Thirty bovine enamel blocks were selected by surface hardness and randomized into two groups (n = 15: GC- group composed by enamel blocks without erosion lesion and GT- group composed by enamel blocks with initial erosion lesion. The baseline profile of each block was determined using the profilometer. The initial erosion was produced by immersing the blocks into HCl 0.01 M, pH 2.3 for 30 seconds, under stirring. The erosive cycling consisted of blocks immersion in hydrochloric acid (0.01 M, pH 2.3 for 2 minutes, followed by immersion in artificial saliva for 120 minutes. This procedure was repeated 4 times a day for 5 days, and the blocks were kept in artificial saliva overnight. After erosive cycling, final profile measurement was performed. Profilometry measured the enamel loss by the superposition of initial and final profiles. Data were analyzed by t-test (p<0.05. The result showed no statistically significant difference between groups (GS = 14.60±2.86 and GE = .14.69±2.21 μm. The presence of initial erosion on bovine dental enamel does not enhance its susceptibility to new erosive challenges.

Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

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Monioudi, Isavela N.; Velegrakis, Adonis F.; Chatzipavlis, Antonis E.; Rigos, Anastasios; Karambas, Theophanis; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Hasiotis, Thomas; Koukourouvli, Nikoletta; Peduzzi, Pascal; Manoutsoglou, Eva; Poulos, Serafim E.; Collins, Michael B.

2017-03-01

The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) - a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29-87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

Magnetic sheath effect on the gross and net erosion rates due to impurities

Science.gov (United States)

Mellet, N.; Pégourié, B.; Martin, C.; Gunn, J. P.; Bufferand, H.; Roubin, P.

2016-02-01

Simulations of impurity trajectories in deuterium plasmas in the vicinity of the surface are performed by taking into account the magnetic sheath in conditions relevant for ITER and WEST. We show that the magnetic sheath has a strong effect on the average impact angle of impurities in divertor conditions and that it can lead to an increase of ≈ 60% at the gross erosion maximum for neon (Ne+4) compared to the case when only the cyclotron motion is considered. The evaluation of the net erosion has been undertaken by retaining local redeposition of tungsten (W). We investigate how it is affected by the sheath magnetic potential profile. The largest effect is however observed when an energy distribution is considered. In this case the number of particles that manage to exit the sheath is larger as it is dominated by the more energetic particles. The comparison with other work is also discussed. The application to a scenario of the WEST project is finally performed, which exhibits a moderate, however non negligible, erosion of the plasma facing components.

Protection from erosion following wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

2006-01-01

Erosion in the first year after a wildfire can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than the erosion from undisturbed forests. To mitigate potential postfire erosion, various erosion control treatments are applied on highly erodible areas with downstream resources in need of protection. Because postfire erosion rates generally decline by an order of magnitude for...

Erosion rills offset the efficacy of vegetated buffer strips to mitigate pesticide exposure in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Stehle, Sebastian; Dabrowski, James Michael; Bangert, Uli; Schulz, Ralf

2016-03-01

Regulatory risk assessment considers vegetated buffer strips as effective risk mitigation measures for the reduction of runoff-related pesticide exposure of surface waters. However, apart from buffer strip widths, further characteristics such as vegetation density or the presence of erosion rills are generally neglected in the determination of buffer strip mitigation efficacies. This study conducted a field survey of fruit orchards (average slope 3.1-12.2%) of the Lourens River catchment, South Africa, which specifically focused on the characteristics and attributes of buffer strips separating orchard areas from tributary streams. In addition, in-stream and erosion rill water samples were collected during three runoff events and GIS-based modeling was employed to predict losses of pesticides associated with runoff. The results show that erosion rills are common in buffer strips (on average 13 to 24 m wide) of the tributaries (up to 6.5 erosion rills per km flow length) and that erosion rills represent concentrated entry pathways of pesticide runoff into the tributaries during rainfall events. Exposure modeling shows that measured pesticide surface water concentrations correlated significantly (R(2)=0.626; pregulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for pesticide authorization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

2013-01-01

In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

Modeling of Soil Erosion by IntErO model: The Case Study of the Novsicki Potok Watershed, of the Prokletije high mountains of Montenegro

Science.gov (United States)

Spalevic, Velibor; Al-Turki, Ali M.; Barovic, Goran; Leandro Naves Silva, Marx; Djurovic, Nevenka; Soares Souza, Walisson; Veloso Gomes Batista, Pedro; Curovic, Milic

2016-04-01

The application of soil conservation programs to combat erosion and sedimentation are significantly contributing to the protection of the natural resources. Watershed management practices include the assessment of Physical-Geographical, Climate, Geological, Pedological characteristics, including the analysis of Land Use of the regions concerned. The policy makers are increasingly looking for the different land uses and climatic scenarios that can be used for valuable projections for watershed management. To increase knowledge about those processes, use of hydrological and soil erosion models is needed and that is allowing quantification of soil redistribution and sediment productions. We focused on soil erosion processes in one of Northern Montenegrin mountain watersheds, the Novsicki Potok Watershed of the Polimlje River Basin, using modeling techniques: the IntErO model for calculation of runoff and soil loss. The model outcomes were validated through measurements of lake sediment deposition at the Potpec hydropower plant dam. Our findings indicate a medium potential of soil erosion risk. With 464 m³ yr-1 of annual sediment yield, corresponding to an area-specific sediment yield of 270 m³km-2 yr-1, the Novsicki Potok drainage basin belongs to the Montenegrin basins with the medium sediment discharge; according to the erosion type, it is surface erosion. The value of the Z coefficient was calculated on 0.403, what indicates that the river basin belongs to 3rd destruction category (of five). Our results suggest that the calculated peak discharge from the river basin was 82 m3s-1 for the incidence of 100 years. According to our analysis there is a possibility for large flood waves to appear in the studied river basin. With this research we, to some extent, improved the knowledge on the status of sediment yield and runoff of the river basins of Montenegro, where the map of Soil erosion is still not prepared. The IntErO model we used in this study is relatively

Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California: Chapter F in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma

2013-01-01

The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical, yet plausible, tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. In this chapter, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types and other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (for example, organotin or DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or

A web platform for landuse, climate, demography, hydrology and beach erosion in the Black Sea catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, Anthony; Guigoz, Yaniss; Ray, Nicolas; Mancosu, Emanuele; Abbaspour, Karim C; Rouholahnejad Freund, Elham; Allenbach, Karin; De Bono, Andrea; Fasel, Marc; Gago-Silva, Ana; Bär, Roger; Lacroix, Pierre; Giuliani, Gregory

2017-07-04

The Black Sea catchment (BSC) is facing important demographic, climatic and landuse changes that may increase pollution, vulnerability and scarcity of water resources, as well as beach erosion through sea level rise. Limited access to reliable time-series monitoring data from environmental, statistical, and socio-economical sources is a major barrier to policy development and decision-making. To address these issues, a web-based platform was developed to enable discovery and access to key environmental information for the region. This platform covers: landuse, climate, and demographic scenarios; hydrology and related water vulnerability and scarcity; as well as beach erosion. Each data set has been obtained with state-of-the-art modelling tools from available monitoring data using appropriate validation methods. These analyses were conducted using global and regional data sets. The data sets are intended for national to regional assessments, for instance for prioritizing environmental protection projects and investments. Together they form a unique set of information, which lay out future plausible change scenarios for the BSC, both for scientific and policy purposes.

Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

2014-05-01

The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Lunt

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Åsa Boholm

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

Dental erosion among 12-14 year old school children in Khartoum: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

El Karim, I A; Sanhouri, N M; Hashim, N T; Ziada, H M

2007-09-01

To investigate dental erosion among 12-14 year old Sudanese school children and evaluate the associated risk factors. Cross sectional survey in secondary schools in Khartoum city, Sudan. A sample of 157 school children was obtained from both private and public schools. Erosion on the labial and palatal surfaces of maxillary incisors was measured by criterion based on the Smith and Knight Tooth Wear Index. Dietary intake and other related factors were assessed using a questionnaire. The overall erosion prevalence in this group was 66.9%, of which 45.2% was mild and 21.7% was moderate erosion. A strong association was found between erosion and private schooling (higher socioeconomic groups), carbonated drinks, herbal hibiscus drink and traditional acidic food consumption. There was a high prevalence of dental erosion among Sudanese school children which was mild to moderate in severity and was strongly associated with acidic dietary intake

Effectiveness of hydrological forest restoration projects on soil erosion control in Mediterranean catchment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, V. M.; Boix Fayos, C.; Vente, J. de; Martinez-Mena, M.; Barbera, G. G.

2009-01-01

Extensive land use changes have occurred in many Mediterranean catchments as a result of reforestation and the abandonment of agricultural activities. Besides this, the establishment of check-dams has been promoted to reduce soil erosion and sediment transport. In this study a combination of field work, mapping and modelling was used to test influence of land use scenarios with and without sediment control structures on sediment yield at catchment scale. Model simulation shows that in a scenario without check-dams, the land used changes between 1956 and 1997 caused a progressive decrease in sediment yield of 54%. In a scenario without land use changes but with check-dams, about 77% of the sediment yield was retained behind the dams. Both land use changes and check-dams are effective measures decreasing sediment yield in catchment, however they act at very different temporal scales. (Author) 5 refs.

Mapping erosion from space

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrieling, A.

2007-01-01

Soil erosion by water is the most important land degradation problem worldwide. Spatial information on erosion is required for defining effective soil and water conservation strategies. Satellite remote sensing can provide relevant input to regional erosion assessment. This thesis comprises a review

Developing an Erosion Rate Map for Myanmar Using USLE, GIS and Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Emtehani, Sobhan; Rutten, Martine

2017-04-01

Predicting erosion and estimating sediment loads in rivers are of major tasks in water resources system planning and management. In Myanmar erosion and collapse of river banks is common during the rainy season and riverine communities are frequently forced to relocate as their homes are dangerously close to the disintegrating river banks (Mann 2013). Myanmar is one of climatically most diverse countries located in Southeast Asia, where sheet, rill, and gully erosion affect crop yields as well as livelihood strategies of many people (Htwe, Brinkmann et al. 2015). In Myanmar, soil erosion measurement and monitoring approaches are increasingly important for land management planning to effectively avoid erosion and soil degradation, but such monitoring is limited by the availability of data and budgetary constraints. Therefore, spatial modeling approaches using GIS and remote sensing techniques play an important role for rapid risk assessments (Htwe 2016). In this study ''Model Builder'' tool in ArcGIS was used to create a model which generates an erosion rate map using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). USLE is the product of five factors: rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), crop management factor (C), and support practice factor (P). Input data files for this model were acquired from online open source databases. Precipitation data was downloaded from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for calculation of R factor. The resolution of TRMM data is very coarse (0.25 degree × 0.25 degree), therefore it was spatially downscaled by developing a relation between TRMM and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using regression analysis method. Soil maps depicting percentages of sand, clay and silt were obtained from soilgrids website for calculation of K factor. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with resolution of 90 meters was taken from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for calculation of LS

Assessing the multidimensionality of coastal erosion risks: public participation and multicriteria analysis in a Mediterranean coastal system.

Science.gov (United States)

Roca, Elisabet; Gamboa, Gonzalo; Tàbara, J David

2008-04-01

The complex and multidimensional nature of coastal erosion risks makes it necessary to move away from single-perspective assessment and management methods that have conventionally predominated in coastal management. This article explores the suitability of participatory multicriteria analysis (MCA) for improving the integration of diverse expertises and values and enhancing the social-ecological robustness of the processes that lead to the definition of relevant policy options to deal with those risks. We test this approach in the Mediterranean coastal locality of Lido de Sète in France. Results show that the more adaptive alternatives such as "retreating the shoreline" were preferred by our selected stakeholders to those corresponding to "protecting the shoreline" and the business as usual proposals traditionally put forward by experts and policymakers on these matters. Participative MCA contributed to represent coastal multidimensionality, elicit and integrate different views and preferences, facilitated knowledge exchange, and allowed highlighting existing uncertainties.

Short-term transport of glyphosate with erosion in Chinese loess soil--a flume experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaomei; Wang, Fei; Bento, Célia P M; Xue, Sha; Gai, Lingtong; van Dam, Ruud; Mol, Hans; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

2015-04-15

Repeated applications of glyphosate may contaminate the soil and water and threaten their quality both within the environmental system and beyond it through water erosion related processes and leaching. In this study, we focused on the transport of glyphosate and its metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) related to soil erosion at two slope gradients (10 and 20°), two rates of pesticide with a formulation of glyphosate (Roundup®) application (360 and 720 mg m(-2)), and a rain intensity of 1.0 mm min(-1) for 1 h on bare soil in hydraulic flumes. Runoff and erosion rate were significantly different within slope gradients (psoil at the end of the experiment decreased significantly with depth (psoil layers, respectively. The risk of contamination in deep soil and the groundwater was thus low, but 5% of the initial application did reach the 2-10 cm soil layer. The risk of contamination of surface water through runoff and sedimentation, however, can be considerable, especially in regions where rain-induced soil erosion is common. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

Science.gov (United States)

Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J. T.

2013-12-01

This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

Erosive gastritis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammed, S.H.; Conrad, C.; Kjoergaad, J.

1982-01-01

Erosive gastritis is a well-defined radiologic and endoscopic entity. It is one of the common causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, yet it is seldom diagnosed and often confused with a number of other diseases. This communication re-emphasizes the characteristic endoscopic and radiologic features of erosive gastritis and its differential diagnosis. Two representative cases are reported. (orig.)

Erosive gastritis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mohammed, S.H.; Conrad, C.; Kjoergaad, J.

1982-08-01

Erosive gastritis is a well-defined radiologic and endoscopic entity. It is one of the common causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, yet it is seldom diagnosed and often confused with a number of other diseases. This communication re-emphasizes the characteristic endoscopic and radiologic features of erosive gastritis and its differential diagnosis. Two representative cases are reported.

Reduction in soil loss from erosion-susceptible soils amended with humic substances from oxidized coal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piccolo, A.; Pietramellara, G.; Mbagwu, J.S.C.

1997-01-01

Soils that pose high risk of erosion require amendment with either natural or synthetic soil conditioners to reduce soil loss hazards. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of using coal-derived humic substances (as soil conditioners) to reduce runoff erosion on erosion-susceptible soils. Surface samples of severely degraded soils from Principina in Tuscany and Bovolone in Venice in Italy were used to assess the effects of five rates (0, 0.05, 0.01, 0.50 and 1.00 g/kg) of humic acids (HA) on soil loss and other hydrological parameters. The results showed that amending erosion-susceptible soils with low rates of coal-derived humic substances is a potentially effective soil management practice for reducing erosion rates

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

A descriptive and quantitative approach regarding erosion and development of landforms on abandoned mine tailings: New insights and environmental implications from SE Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Martín Duque, J. F.; Zapico, I.; Oyarzun, R.; López García, J. A.; Cubas, P.

2015-06-01

The San Cristóbal-Perules mining site in Mazarrón in southeast Spain was subjected to about a hundred years of intense mining activity for lead, silver, and zinc. Metallurgical operations (smelting, calcination, gravity concentration) carried out during the late nineteenth century-early twentieth century induced significant land transformation, and the most conspicuous wastes of this period consist of a chaotic piling of 'old' tailing deposits. Later on, during the mid-twentieth century, 'modern' tailings resulting from froth flotation were accumulated filling small valleys; these latter valley-fill tailings rose sequentially according to the upstream construction method, progressively raising the level of the dam during the process. Once abandoned, both types of tailing deposits underwent severe erosion, resulting in a mosaic of erosional and sedimentary landforms developed upon (e.g., gully formation) and within them (e.g., piping). We made an inventory and classification of these landforms. Our study shows the geomorphic work to reestablish a new steady state between the tailings deposits and the local erosive conditions. This scenario implies several hazards related to the extremely high heavy metal contents of these tailings and the geomorphic instability of the deposits. We also quantified the tailings tonnage and erosion that occurred at one of the tailings dams (El Roble). As shown by an oblique aerial photograph taken in 1968, this dam had a terraced topography, whereas in 2013 this morphology had evolved into a badland-type relief with deep parallel gullies. By recognizing and surveying specific, remnant points along the benches and outslopes of the older terraced topography, we were able to build up a first digital elevation model (DEM1) reflecting the initial topography. A second DEM, this time showing the present topography, allowed quantification of erosion via Material Loss = DEM1 - DEM2. This yields an erosion rate (1968-2009) of 151.8 Mg (MT) ha

Assessing storm erosion hazards

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

2017-01-01

The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

Measurement of erosion: Is it possible?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stroosnijder, L.

2005-01-01

Reasons for erosion measurements are: (1) to determine the environmental impact of erosion and conservation practices, (2) scientific erosion research; (3) development and evaluation of erosion control technology; (4) development of erosion prediction technology and (5) allocation of conservation

Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

2018-01-01

Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de; Aguiar, Laís Alencar de

2017-01-01

A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zrlima@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, Laís Alencar de, E-mail: laguiars@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

The influence of rill density on soil erosion against USLE-soil erosion methode

OpenAIRE

Rizalihadi, A.M.; Faimah, B.E.; Nazia, C.L.

2013-01-01

Land and water is one of the major natural resource which has an important role for human life. Exploitation of land in catchment areas that not correspond to its carrying capacity will cause damage. One of the effect is increassing the soil erosion. Continuous erosion will also lead to increased sediment transport in rivers that disrupt the ship navigation on estuary due sediment accumulation. At present, soil erosion is estimated using USLE method, which is only limited to the erosion in th...

Invasion risk of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Min Jung

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes has destroyed local ecosystems in numerous countries, and their population sizes and distribution are likely to increase under global warming. To evaluate the risk of invasion by yellow crazy ant in South Korea, this study identified their potential habitats and predicted their future global distribution by modeling various climate change scenarios using CLIMEX software. Our modeling predicted that future climate conditions in South Korea will be favorable for the yellow crazy ant, and they could invade by the mid-21st century. We highlight the use of predictive algorithms to establish geographical areas with a high risk of yellow crazy ant invasion under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Keywords: Anoplolepis gracilipes, climate change scenario, CLIMEX, invasive species, yellow crazy ant

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Saliva and dental erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Buzalaf, Marília Afonso Rabelo; Hannas, Angélicas Reis; Kato, Melissa Thiemi

2012-01-01

Dental erosion is a multifactorial condition. The consideration of chemical, biological and behavioral factors is fundamental for its prevention and therapy. Among the biological factors, saliva is one of the most important parameters in the protection against erosive wear. This review discusses the role of salivary factors on the development of dental erosion. A search was undertaken on MeDLINe website for papers from 1969 to 2010. The keywords used in the research were "saliva", "acquired pellicle", "salivary flow", "salivary buffering capacity" and "dental erosion". Inclusion of studies, data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken independently and in duplicate by two members of the review team. Disagreements were solved by discussion and consensus or by a third party. Several characteristics and properties of saliva play an important role in dental erosion. Salivary clearance gradually eliminates the acids through swallowing and saliva presents buffering capacity causing neutralization and buffering of dietary acids. Salivary flow allows dilution of the acids. In addition, saliva is supersaturated with respect to tooth mineral, providing calcium, phosphate and fluoride necessary for remineralization after an erosive challenge. Furthermore, many proteins present in saliva and acquired pellicle play an important role in dental erosion. Saliva is the most important biological factor affecting the progression of dental erosion. Knowledge of its components and properties involved in this protective role can drive the development of preventive measures targeting to enhance its known beneficial effects.

Saliva and dental erosion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marília Afonso Rabelo Buzalaf

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Dental erosion is a multifactorial condition. The consideration of chemical, biological and behavioral factors is fundamental for its prevention and therapy. Among the biological factors, saliva is one of the most important parameters in the protection against erosive wear. Objective: This review discusses the role of salivary factors on the development of dental erosion. Material and Methods: A search was undertaken on MeDLINe website for papers from 1969 to 2010. The keywords used in the research were "saliva", "acquired pellicle", "salivary flow", "salivary buffering capacity" and "dental erosion". Inclusion of studies, data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken independently and in duplicate by two members of the review team. Disagreements were solved by discussion and consensus or by a third party. Results: Several characteristics and properties of saliva play an important role in dental erosion. Salivary clearance gradually eliminates the acids through swallowing and saliva presents buffering capacity causing neutralization and buffering of dietary acids. Salivary flow allows dilution of the acids. In addition, saliva is supersaturated with respect to tooth mineral, providing calcium, phosphate and fluoride necessary for remineralization after an erosive challenge. Furthermore, many proteins present in saliva and acquired pellicle play an important role in dental erosion. Conclusions: Saliva is the most important biological factor affecting the progression of dental erosion. Knowledge of its components and properties involved in this protective role can drive the development of preventive measures targeting to enhance its known beneficial effects.

DISPERSION OF GLYPHOSATE IN SOILS UNDERGOING EROSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gorana Todorovic Rampazzo

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Different physical, chemical and biological processes influence the behaviour of organic contaminants in soils. A better understanding of the organic pollutant behaviour in soils would improve the environmental protection. One possible way for better attenuation of the risk of pollution in agriculture can be achieved through ta better-specified pesticide management based on the adaptation of the pesticide type and application rates to the specific environmental characteristics of the area of application. Nowadays, one of the actually most applied herbicide world wide is glyphosate. Glyphosate is highly water soluble and traces have been found in surface and groundwater systems. For a better understanding of the natural influence of erosion processes on glyphosate behaviour and dispersion under heavy rain conditions after application in the field, two erosion simulation experiments were conducted on two different locations in Austria with completely different soil types in September 2008. The results of the experiments showed that under normal practical conditions (e.g. no rainfall is expected immediatly after application, the potential adsorption capacity of the Kirchberg soil (Stagnic Cambisol, with about 16.000 ppm Fe-oxides is confirmed compared to the low adsorption Chernosem soil (about 8.000 ppm pedogenic Fe-oxides.  Considering the enormous difference in the run-off amounts between the two sites Pixendorf and Kirchberg soils it can be concluded how important the soil structural conditions and vegetation type and cover are for the risks of erosion and, as a consequence, pollution of neighbouring waters. In the rainfall experiments under comparable simulation conditions, the amount of run-off was about 10 times higher at Kirchberg, owing to its better infiltration rate, than at the Pixendorf site. Moreover, the total loss of glyphosate (NT+CT through run-off at the Kirchberg site was more than double that at Pixendorf, which confirms the

Increasing trends in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Source Region of the Three Rivers, 1961-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yousheng; Cheng, Congcong; Xie, Yun; Liu, Baoyuan; Yin, Shuiqing; Liu, Yingna; Hao, Yanfang

2017-08-15

As the head source of the two longest rivers in China and the longest river in Southeast Asia, the East Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is experiencing increasing thaw snowmelt and more heavy precipitation events under global warming, which might lead to soil erosion risk. To understand the potential driving force of soil erosion and its relationship with precipitation in the context of climate change, this study analyzed long-term variations in annual rainfall-runoff erosivity, a climatic index of soil erosion, by using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and Theil and Sen's approach in the Source Region of the Three Rivers during 1961-2012. The results showed the followings: (i) increasing annual rainfall-runoff erosivity was observed over the past 52years, with a mean relative trend index (RT 1 ) value of 12.1%. The increasing trend was more obvious for the latest two decades: RT 1 was nearly three times larger than that over the entire period; (ii) more precipitation events and a higher precipitation amount were the major forces for the increasing rainfall-runoff erosivity; (iii) similar rising trends in sediment yields, which corresponded to rainfall-runoff erosivity under slightly increasing vegetation coverage in the study area, implied a large contribution of rainfall-runoff erosivity to the increasing sediment yields; and (iv) high warming rates increased the risk of soil destruction, soil erosion and sediment yields. Conservation measures, such as enclosing grassland, returning grazing land to grassland and rotation grazing since the 1980s, have maintained vegetation coverage and should be continued and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Auto consolidated cohesive sediments erosion; Erosion des sediments cohesifs en autoconsolidation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ternat, F

2007-02-15

Pollutants and suspended matters of a river can accumulate into the sedimentary column. Once deposited, they are submitted to self-weight consolidation processes, ageing and burying, leading to an increase of their erosion resistance. Pollutant fluxes can be related to sedimentary fluxes, determined by threshold laws. In this work, an erosion threshold model is suggested by introducing a cohesion force into the usual force balance. A model of cohesion is developed on the basis of interactions between argillaceous cohesive particles (clays), particularly the Van der Waals force, whose parameterization is ensured by means of granulometry and porosity. Artificial erosion experiments were performed in a recirculating erosion flume with natural cored sediments where critical shear stress measurements were performed. Other analyses provided granulometry and porosity. The results obtained constitute a good database for the literature. The model is then applied to the experimental conditions and gives good agreement with measurements. An example of the accounting for self-weight consolidation processes is finally suggested, before finishing on a Mohr like diagram dedicated to soft cohesive sediment erosion. (author)

Immunohistochemical Study of p53 Expression in Patients with Erosive and Non-Erosive Oral Lichen Planus

Science.gov (United States)

Shiva, Atena; Zamanian, Ali; Arab, Shahin; Boloki, Mahsa

2018-01-01

Statement of the Problem: Oral lichen planus is a common mucocutaneous lesion with a chronic inflammatory process mediated by immune factors while a few cases of the disease become malignant. Purpose: This study aimed to determine the frequency of p53 marker as a tumor suppressor in patients with erosive and non-erosive oral lichen planus (OLP) by using immunohistochemical methods. Materials and Method: This descriptive cross-sectional study investigated the p53 expression in 16 erosive OLP, 16 non-erosive OLP samples, and 8 samples of normal oral mucosa through immunohistochemistry. The percentage of stained cells in basal and suprabasal layers, and inflammatory infiltrate were graded according to the degree of staining; if 0%, 50% of the cells were stained, they were considered as (-), (+), (++), (+++) and (++++), respectively. The obtained data was statistically analyzed and compared by using Chi square and Fisher’s exact test. Results: The mean percentage of p53 positive cells in erosive OLP (34.5±14.2) was considerably higher than that in non-erosive OLP (23.8±10.4) and normal mucosa (17.5±17). There was a significant difference among the three groups of erosive, non-erosive and control in terms of staining intensity. No significant difference existed between the patients’ age and sex in the two OLP groups. Conclusion: The increased incidence of p53 from normal mucosa to erosive OLP indicated the difference between biological behavior of erosive and non-erosive OLP. It can be claimed that the erosive OLP has great premalignant potential compared with the non-erosive one.

Dental erosion -- changing prevalence? A review of British National childrens' surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Nunn, J H; Gordon, P H; Morris, A J; Pine, C M; Walker, A

2003-03-01

To investigate the change in the prevalence of dental erosion, over time, by a review of the data from the published national dental surveys of young people in the UK. A subsidiary objective was to investigate the relationship between erosion and possible associated risk factors. The review was based on cross-sectional prevalence studies incorporating a clinical dental examination and structured interviews. The data were collated from the 1993 UK childrens' dental health survey and the dental report of the two National Diet and Nutrition Surveys (NDNS) of children aged 1(1/2)-4(1/2) in 1992/3 and 4-18 years in 1996/7. The criteria used for data collection were comparable between the three different studies. Comparing the data from the different studies, the prevalence of erosion was seen to increase from the time of the childrens' dental health survey in 1993 and the NDNS study of 4-18-year-olds in 1996/7. There was a trend towards a higher prevalence of erosion in children aged between 3(1/2) and 4(1/2) and in those who consumed carbonated drinks on most days compared with toddlers consuming these drinks less often. Drinks overnight were associated with an increased prevalence of erosion. More 4-6-year-olds with reported symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux had erosion compared with symptom-free children. On multivariate analysis, the strongest independent association with erosion was geography, with children living in the North having twice the odds of having erosion compared with those in London and the South-east. Comparing prevalence data from cross-sectional national studies indicates that dental erosion increases between different age cohorts of young people over time. Dietary associations with erosion are present but weak. Similarly, there is an association apparent between erosion, symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux and socio-demographic variables such as region of domicile, social class, and receipt of social benefits.

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of

Ecological site‐based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P; Herrick, Jeffrey E; Duniway, Michael C

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation, or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explored how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting, and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass–succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 ha). We identified vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area could be effectively controlled when bare ground cover was 100 cm in length was less than ∼35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

Determination of soil erosion risk in the Mustafakemalpasa River Basin, Turkey, using the revised universal soil loss equation, geographic information system, and remote sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul; Dirim, M Sabri; Tumsavas, Zeynal

2012-10-01

-geographic information system (GIS) combination and the measured values from the Dolluk sediment gauge station shows that the potential soil erosion risk of the MKP River Basin can be estimated correctly and reliably using the RUSLE function generated in a GIS environment.

Workshop on Copper Corrosion and Buffer Erosion. Stockholm 15-17 September 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, Peter; Bath, Adrian

2011-02-01

The workshop was convened to inform and advise SSM about the coupled processes of buffer erosion and enhanced canister corrosion that have been proposed as a potentially detrimental scenario in the long-term evolution of the engineered barrier system of a deep geological repository. It was an extension of the deliberations of SSM's BRITE advisory group on EBS issues and on SKB's approaches to the issues in the forthcoming SR-Site safety case. The workshop was planned to assist and advise SSM in its preparations for review of SKB.s license application and SR-Site submission. The potential for buffer erosion due to a future influx of dilute groundwater that induces bentonite to behave as a sol has been indicated by experiments carried out for SKB. It is generally considered that the most likely source and timing of such groundwater conditions will be the glacial stage of the normal evolution of the repository system, i.e. many tens of thousands of years into the future at least. The workshop considered, however, that potential causes of buffer erosion in the early post-closure period should also be considered. The main significance of buffer erosion for a safety case is that it would potentially lead to higher rates of corrosion of the copper canister. There are various physicochemical mechanisms that could be implicated in enhanced corrosion but basically they would involve (a) the failure of a diffusion controlled constraint on corrodant transport to and product transport away from the copper surface, and (b) the viability of microbially-mediated reactions producing higher concentrations of corrodants at or near to the copper surface. The general issues relating to corrosion had already been the theme for a previous workshop in 2005 (see Report SKI 2006:11), the outcomes of which formed the background for this workshop. Additional background was provided by SKB's interim safety case, SR-Can, and the regulatory authorities. responses to preliminary consideration of

Workshop on Copper Corrosion and Buffer Erosion. Stockholm 15-17 September 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robinson, Peter (Quintessa (United Kingdom)); Bath, Adrian (Intellisci Ltd (United Kingdom))

2011-02-15

The workshop was convened to inform and advise SSM about the coupled processes of buffer erosion and enhanced canister corrosion that have been proposed as a potentially detrimental scenario in the long-term evolution of the engineered barrier system of a deep geological repository. It was an extension of the deliberations of SSM's BRITE advisory group on EBS issues and on SKB's approaches to the issues in the forthcoming SR-Site safety case. The workshop was planned to assist and advise SSM in its preparations for review of SKB.s license application and SR-Site submission. The potential for buffer erosion due to a future influx of dilute groundwater that induces bentonite to behave as a sol has been indicated by experiments carried out for SKB. It is generally considered that the most likely source and timing of such groundwater conditions will be the glacial stage of the normal evolution of the repository system, i.e. many tens of thousands of years into the future at least. The workshop considered, however, that potential causes of buffer erosion in the early post-closure period should also be considered. The main significance of buffer erosion for a safety case is that it would potentially lead to higher rates of corrosion of the copper canister. There are various physicochemical mechanisms that could be implicated in enhanced corrosion but basically they would involve (a) the failure of a diffusion controlled constraint on corrodant transport to and product transport away from the copper surface, and (b) the viability of microbially-mediated reactions producing higher concentrations of corrodants at or near to the copper surface. The general issues relating to corrosion had already been the theme for a previous workshop in 2005 (see Report SKI 2006:11), the outcomes of which formed the background for this workshop. Additional background was provided by SKB's interim safety case, SR-Can, and the regulatory authorities. responses to preliminary

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

1998-01-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

1998-07-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Quantifying accelerated soil erosion through ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion

Science.gov (United States)

This work explores how organising soil erosion assessments using established groupings of similar soils (ecological sites) can inform systems for managing accelerated soil erosion. We evaluated aeolian sediment transport and fluvial erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA...

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Rill erosion rates in burned forests

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

2011-01-01

Introduction Wildfires often produce large increases in runoff and erosion rates (e.g., Moody and Martin, 2009), and land managers need to predict the frequency and magnitude of postfire erosion to determine the needs for hazard response and possible erosion mitigation to reduce the impacts of increased erosion on public safety and valued resources. The Water Erosion...

Evaluation of the serum zinc level in erosive and non-erosive oral lichen planus.

Science.gov (United States)

Gholizadeh, N; Mehdipour, M; Najafi, Sh; Bahramian, A; Garjani, Sh; Khoeini Poorfar, H

2014-06-01

Lichen planus is a chronic inflammatory immunologic-based disease involving skin and mucosa. This disease is generally divided into two categories: erosive and non-erosive. Many etiologic factors are deliberated regarding the disease; however, the disorders of immune system and the role of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes and monocytes are more highlighted. Zinc is an imperative element for the growth of epithelium and its deficiency induces the cytotoxic activity of T-helper2 cells, which seems to be associated with lichen planus. This study was aimed to evaluate the levels of serum zinc in erosive and non-erosive oral lichen planus (OLP) and to compare it with the healthy control group to find out any feasible inference. A total of 22 patients with erosive oral lichen planus, 22 patients with non erosive OLP and 44 healthy individuals as the control group were recruited in this descriptive-comparative study. All the participants were selected from the referees to the department of oral medicine, school of dentistry, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. Serum zinc level was examined for all the individuals with liquid-stat kit (Beckman Instruments Inc.; Carlsbad, CA). Data were analyzed by adopting the ANOVA and Tukey tests, using SPSS 16 statistical software. The mean age of patients with erosive and non-erosive LP was 41.7 and 41.3 years, respectively. The mean age of the healthy control group was 34.4 years .The mean serum zinc levels in the erosive and non erosive lichen planus groups and control groups were 8.3 (1.15), 11.15 (0.92) and 15.74 (1.75) μg/dl respectively. The difference was statistically significant (poral lichen planus. This finding may probably indicate the promising role of zinc in development of oral lichen planus.

Modeling soil erosion in a watershed

OpenAIRE

Lanuza, R.

1999-01-01

Most erosion models have been developed based on a plot scale and have limited application to a watershed due to the differences in aerial scale. In order to address this limitation, a GIS-assisted methodology for modeling soil erosion was developed using PCRaster to predict the rate of soil erosion at watershed level; identify the location of erosion prone areas; and analyze the impact of landuse changes on soil erosion. The general methodology of desktop modeling or soil erosion at watershe...

Forest soil erosion prediction as influenced by wildfire and roads

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, L.; Brooks, E. S.; Elliot, W.

2017-12-01

Following a wildfire, the risk of erosion is greatly increased. Forest road networks may change the underlying topography and alter natural flow paths. Flow accumulation and energy can be redistributed by roads and alter soil erosion processes. A LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) DEM makes it possible to quantify road topography, and estimate how roads influence surface runoff and sediment transport in a fire-disturbed watershed. With GIS technology and a soil erosion model, this study was carried out to evaluate the effect of roads on erosion and sediment yield following the Emerald Fire southwest of Lake Tahoe. The GeoWEPP model was used to estimate onsite erosion and offsite sediment delivery from each hillslope polygon and channel segment before and after fire disturbance in part of the burned area. The GeoWEPP flow path method was used to estimate the post-fire erosion rate of each GIS pixel. A 2-m resolution LiDAR DEM was used as the terrain layer. The Emerald Fire greatly increased onsite soil loss and sediment yields within the fire boundary. Following the fire, 78.71% of the burned area had predicted sediment yields greater than 4 Mg/ha/yr, compared to the preburn condition when 65.3% of the study area was estimated to generate a sediment yield less than 0.25 Mg/ha/yr. Roads had a remarkable influence on the flow path simulation and sub-catchments delineation, affecting sediment transport process spatially. Road segments acted as barriers that intercepted overland runoff and reduced downslope flow energy accumulation, therefore reducing onsite soil loss downslope of the road. Roads also changed the boundary of sub-catchment and defined new hydrological units. Road segments can transport sediment from one sub-catchment to another. This in turn leads to the redistribution of sediment and alters sediment yield for some sub-catchments. Culverts and road drain systems are of vital importance in rerouting runoff and sediment. Conservation structures can be

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Scales and erosion

Science.gov (United States)

There is a need to develop scale explicit understanding of erosion to overcome existing conceptual and methodological flaws in our modelling methods currently applied to understand the process of erosion, transport and deposition at the catchment scale. These models need to be based on a sound under...

Does a more sophisticated storm erosion model improve probabilistic erosion estimates?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Callaghan, D.; Roelvink, D.

2013-01-01

The dependency between the accuracy/uncertainty of storm erosion exceedance estimates obtained via a probabilistic model and the level of sophistication of the structural function (storm erosion model) embedded in the probabilistic model is assessed via the application of Callaghan et al.'s (2008)

Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

2016-12-01

Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

LIDAR data to support coastal erosion analysis: the Conero study case

Science.gov (United States)

Calligaro, Simone; Sofia, Giulia; Guarnieri, Alberto; Tarolli, Paolo

2013-04-01

In the last decades, the topic of coastal erosion and the derived risk have been subject of a growing interest for public authorities and researchers. Recent major natural events, such as hurricanes, tsunamis, and sea level rising, called the attention of media and society, underlining serious concerns about such problems. In a high-density populated country such as Italy, where tourism is one of the major economic activities, the coastal erosion is really a critical issue. In April 2010, along a reach of the coast of Ventotene Island, two young students tragically died, killed by a rock fall. This event dramatically stressed public authorities about the effectiveness of structural and non-structural measures for the mitigation of such phenomena. It is clear that an improving of the actual knowledge about coastal erosion is needed, especially to monitor such events and to set alert systems. In the last few years, airborne LIDAR technology led to a dramatic increase in terrain information. Airborne LiDAR and Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) derived high-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) have opened avenues for hydrologic and geomorphologic studies (Tarolli et al., 2009). In general, all the main surface processes signatures are correctly recognized using a DTM with cell sizes of 1 m. Having said that, some sub-meter grid sizes may be more suitable in those situations where the analysis of micro topography related to micro changes due to slope failures is critical for risk assessment, and the Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) has been proven to be a useful tool for such detailed field survey. The acquired elevation data with TLS allow to derive a centimeters high quality DTMs. The possibility to detect in detail the slope failures signatures results in a better understanding and mapping of the erosion susceptibility, and of those areas where slope failures are more likely to happen. In addition, these information can be also considered as the basis to develop

Dynamics of soil organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon in relation to water erosion and tillage erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaojun, Nie; Jianhui, Zhang; Zhengan, Su

2013-01-01

Dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) are associated with soil erosion, yet there is a shortage of research concerning the relationship between soil erosion, SOC, and especially microbial biomass carbon (MBC). In this paper, we selected two typical slope landscapes including gentle and steep slopes from the Sichuan Basin, China, and used the (137)Cs technique to determine the effects of water erosion and tillage erosion on the dynamics of SOC and MBC. Soil samples for the determination of (137)Cs, SOC, MBC and soil particle-size fractions were collected on two types of contrasting hillslopes. (137)Cs data revealed that soil loss occurred at upper slope positions of the two landscapes and soil accumulation at the lower slope positions. Soil erosion rates as well as distribution patterns of the erosion is the major process of soil redistribution in the gentle slope landscape, while tillage erosion acts as the dominant process of soil redistribution in the steep slope landscape. In gentle slope landscapes, both SOC and MBC contents increased downslope and these distribution patterns were closely linked to soil redistribution rates. In steep slope landscapes, only SOC contents increased downslope, dependent on soil redistribution. It is noticeable that MBC/SOC ratios were significantly lower in gentle slope landscapes than in steep slope landscapes, implying that water erosion has a negative effect on the microbial biomass compared with tillage erosion. It is suggested that MBC dynamics are closely associated with soil redistribution by water erosion but independent of that by tillage erosion, while SOC dynamics are influenced by soil redistribution by both water erosion and tillage erosion.

Erhversbetinget erosion?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dige, Irene; Gjørup, Hans; Nyvad, Bente

2012-01-01

Baggrund – I forbindelse med dental erosion er en grundig udredning af patienten vigtig, således at årsagen til erosionernes opståen findes, og der kan iværksættes adækvat forebyggende indsats. En sådan udredning er ikke mindst vigtig, når arbejdsmiljøet mistænkes. Patienttilfælde – En 30-årig...... arbejdsskade, men ikke anerkendt, da erosioner ikke er optaget på Arbejdsskadestyrelsens liste over erhvervssygdomme. En systematisk registrering af lignende tilfælde kunne imidlertid på sigt ændre retspraksis for fremtidige patienter med arbejdsbetinget erosion....... patient, der arbejder som pladesmed, blev henvist til Landsdels- og Videnscenter, Århus Sygehus, med henblik på udredning af patientens kraftige slid. Patienten udviste ikke-alderssvarende tandslid af emalje og dentin svarende til erosion forårsaget af syredampe i arbejdsmiljøet, muligvis forstærket af...

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Soil erosion evolution and spatial correlation analysis in a typical karst geomorphology using RUSLE with GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Cheng; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Li, Yangbing; Tian, Yichao; Li, Yue; Wu, Luhua; Luo, Guangjie

2017-07-01

Although some scholars have studied soil erosion in karst landforms, analyses of the spatial and temporal evolution of soil erosion and correlation analyses with spatial elements have been insufficient. The lack of research has led to an inaccurate assessment of environmental effects, especially in the mountainous area of Wuling in China. Soil erosion and rocky desertification in this area influence the survival and sustainability of a population of 0.22 billion people. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of soil erosion and explores its relationship with rocky desertification using GIS technology and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE). Furthermore, this paper analyzes the relationship between soil erosion and major natural elements in southern China. The results are as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2013, the proportion of the area experiencing micro-erosion and mild erosion was at increasing risk in contrast to areas where moderate and high erosion are decreasing. The area changes in this time sequence reflect moderate to high levels of erosion tending to convert into micro-erosion and mild erosion. (2) The soil erosion area on the slope, at 15-35°, accounted for 60.59 % of the total erosion area, and the corresponding soil erosion accounted for 40.44 %. (3) The annual erosion rate in the karst region decreased much faster than in the non-karst region. Soil erosion in all of the rock outcrop areas indicates an improving trend, and dynamic changes in soil erosion significantly differ among the various lithological distribution belts. (4) The soil erosion rate decreased in the rocky desertification regions, to below moderate levels, but increased in the severe rocky desertification areas. The temporal and spatial variations in soil erosion gradually decreased in the study area. Differences in the spatial distribution between lithology and rocky desertification induced extensive soil loss. As rocky desertification became worse, the erosion

Soil erosion evolution and spatial correlation analysis in a typical karst geomorphology using RUSLE with GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Zeng

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Although some scholars have studied soil erosion in karst landforms, analyses of the spatial and temporal evolution of soil erosion and correlation analyses with spatial elements have been insufficient. The lack of research has led to an inaccurate assessment of environmental effects, especially in the mountainous area of Wuling in China. Soil erosion and rocky desertification in this area influence the survival and sustainability of a population of 0.22 billion people. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of soil erosion and explores its relationship with rocky desertification using GIS technology and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the relationship between soil erosion and major natural elements in southern China. The results are as follows: (1 from 2000 to 2013, the proportion of the area experiencing micro-erosion and mild erosion was at increasing risk in contrast to areas where moderate and high erosion are decreasing. The area changes in this time sequence reflect moderate to high levels of erosion tending to convert into micro-erosion and mild erosion. (2 The soil erosion area on the slope, at 15–35°, accounted for 60.59 % of the total erosion area, and the corresponding soil erosion accounted for 40.44 %. (3 The annual erosion rate in the karst region decreased much faster than in the non-karst region. Soil erosion in all of the rock outcrop areas indicates an improving trend, and dynamic changes in soil erosion significantly differ among the various lithological distribution belts. (4 The soil erosion rate decreased in the rocky desertification regions, to below moderate levels, but increased in the severe rocky desertification areas. The temporal and spatial variations in soil erosion gradually decreased in the study area. Differences in the spatial distribution between lithology and rocky desertification induced extensive soil loss. As rocky desertification

Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia