WorldWideScience

Sample records for erosion risk scenarios

  1. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  2. Simulating soil erosion risk for Pan-European land use and climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mantel, S.; Kirby, M.; Daroussin, J.; Jones, R.J.A.

    2003-01-01

    Soil is a vital resource with multiple functions and with high regional and internal variability. Accelerated soil erosion is a cause for decline in soil quality and is increasingly being recognized as a serious environmental problem. Soil erosion is a function of factors such as: land use and

  3. Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

  4. Assessing soil erosion risk in the Tillabery landscape, Niger ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results show that soil erosion output scenarios predict greater soil erosion in the study area from 2070 onwards. They suggest that human disturbance and topographic factors are the main impact factors in the affected areas. Key words: Tillabéry landscape (Niger), sheet and rill erosion modelling, data mining.

  5. The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapicka, Jiri

    2015-04-01

    In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas

  6. Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa

    2017-04-01

    Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de

  7. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  8. Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

    1993-07-01

    Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

  9. Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-04-01

    The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

  10. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  11. Multivariate erosion risk assessment of lateritic badlands of Birbhum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Erosion risk; soil erosion; sediment yield; multivariate analysis; GIS. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 121, No. ... ers are threatened by excessive soil loss by water. To reach that goal the ... nacle erosion, bare soil cover, barren waste land, tunnels and ...

  12. Estimating surface soil erosion losses and mapping erosion risk for Yusufeli micro-catchment (Artvin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Tüfekçioğlu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Sheet erosion, one of the most important types of water erosion, takes place on the top soil as tiny soil layer movement that affects lake and stream ecosystem. This type of erosion is very important because the productive soil layer on the top soil can be lost in a very short period of time. The goal of this study was to quantify the amount of surface (sheet and rill soil erosion, and to identify areas under high erosion risk within the study area at Yusufeli province in Artvin by using RUSLE erosion methodology. As a result of the study it was found that the average annual potential soil loss by surface erosion was 3.6 ton ha-1yr-1. Additionally, the maps produced and conclusions reached by the study revealed that the areas of high erosion risk were identified spatially and measures to control erosion on some of these high risk areas can be possible with appropriate erosion control techniques.

  13. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Land use without adequate soil erosion control measures is continuously increasing the risk of soil erosion by water mainly in developing tropical countries. These countries are prone to environmental disturbance due to high population growth and high rainfall intensity. The aim of this study is to assess the state of soil erosion by water in Uganda at national and district levels, for various land cover and land use (LCLU types, in protected areas as well to predict the impact of support practices on soil loss reduction. Predictions obtained using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model indicated that the mean rate of soil loss risk in Uganda’s erosion‐prone lands was 3.2 t∙ha−1∙y−1, resulting in a total annual soil loss of about 62 million tons in 2014. About 39% of the country’s erosion‐prone lands were comprised of unsustainable mean soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Out of 112 districts in Uganda, 66 districts were found to have unsustainable estimated soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Six districts in Uganda were found to have mean annual soil loss rates of >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Bududa (46.3 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Kasese (37.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bundibugyo (28.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bulambuli (20.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Sironko (14.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and Kotido (12.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Among the LCLU types, the highest soil loss rates of 11 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and 10.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 were found in moderate natural forest and dense natural forest, respectively, mainly due to their locations in highland areas characterized by steep slopes ranging between 16% to 21% and their high rainfall intensity, ranging from 1255 mm∙y−1 to 1292 mm∙y−1. Only five protected areas in Uganda were found to have high mean estimated mean soil loss rates >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Rwenzori Mountains (142.94 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Mount Elgon (33.81 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bokora corridor (12.13 t∙ha−1∙y−1

  14. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  15. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  16. DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; McLeaod, Jim; Castellazzi, Marie; Baggio Compagnucci, Andrea; Irvine, Justin

    2017-04-01

    Soils play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning, and modelling its risk of degradation is fundamental, especially in the context of climate change. In this work we used continuous 3D soil information derived from digital soil mapping (DSM) approaches to map sediment erosion and deposition patterns due to rainfall. The test area covers the whole of mainland Scotland, excluding the Northern Islands. Soil profiles data were interpolated using a geo-statistical hybrid Generalised Additive Models method for a range of soil properties such as organic matter, texture, soil depth and peat presence. The same method was used to interpolate climatic data and management information. Remote sensing data were integrated in the process and land use data included. Information on grazing (sheep and deer) pressure was taken into account in the modelling. The uncertainty was accounted and propagated across the whole process. The Scottish test case highlights the differences in roles between mineral and organic soils with an assessment adapted to each of them. The results and intermediate steps were compared with available continental scale results. The results show the importance of the use of DSM approaches for modeling soils and ecosystem functions and assessing uncertainty propagation.

  17. Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS-factor) and soil erodibility (K-factor) was assessed using small-scale topographic and soil maps. Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) was calculated from data of rainfalls with amounts exceeding 9.5 mm from 14 hydro-meteorological stations. The values of the erosion factors (R, K and LS) were presented for the areas of forest, sub-alpine and alpine zones. Using the methods of GIS, maps were plotted presenting the area distribution among the classes of the soil erosion factors and the potential risk in the respective zones. The results can be used for making accurate decisions for soil conservation and sustainable land management in the park.

  18. SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY OF NUTRIENT LOSS BY EROSION IN SUGARCANE HARVESTING SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Gabarra Mendonça

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS. A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, pMg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

  19. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P.

    2011-02-01

    SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case scenario in

  20. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P. (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2011-02-15

    SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case

  1. Prevalence and risk factors of dental erosion in American children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Mariam; Hottel, Timothy L; Hong, Liang

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and characteristics of dental erosion in children aged 2-4 years old and 12 years old. 243 subjects were recruited from daycare centers, preschools, and grade schools; they received dental examinations assessing their condition of dental erosion, including both depth and area of tooth surface loss on four maxillary incisors. Questionnaires were given to the subjects to obtain socio-demographic, oral health behaviors at home, and access to dental care. Dental erosion was analyzed and risk factors were assessed using Chi-Square and logistic regression analysis. The subjects were 60% Caucasians, 31% Black, 7% Hispanic and others were 2%. 34% of children could not get the dental care they needed within the past 12 months and 61% of all children brushed their teeth twice or more daily. Overall, 12% of study children had dental erosion with 13% for 2-4 years old and 10% for 12 years old, with the majority of erosive lesions within enamel. Family income (OR 3.98, p = 0.021) and acidic fruit juice consumption (OR 2.38, p = 0.038) were significant risk factors for dental erosion, even after controlling for other factors, such as source of drinking water and oral hygiene using logistic regression analysis. Dental erosion is a relatively common problem among the children in this study and it is seen as a multi-factorial process.

  2. Predicting soil erosion risk at the Alqueva dam watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira, Vera; Panagopoulos, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Soil erosion is serious economic and environmental concern. Assessing soil erosion risk in the Alqueva dam watershed is urgently needed to conserve soil and water resources and prevent the accelerated dam siltation, taking into account the possible land-use changes, due to tourism development, intensification of irrigated farming and biomass production, as well as climate change. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and Geographic Info...

  3. Scenario Studies on Effects of Soil Infiltration Rates, Land Slope, and Furrow Irrigation Characteristics on Furrow Irrigation-Induced Erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibal, Jibrin M; Ramalan, A A; Mudiare, O J; Igbadun, H E

    2014-01-01

    Furrow irrigation proceeds under several soil-water-furrow hydraulics interaction dynamics. The soil erosion consequences from such interactions in furrow irrigation in Samaru had remained uncertain. A furrow irrigation-induced erosion (FIIE) model was used to simulate the potential severity of soil erosion in irrigated furrows due to interactive effects of infiltration rates, land slope, and some furrow irrigation characteristics under different scenarios. The furrow irrigation characteristics considered were furrow lengths, widths, and stream sizes. The model itself was developed using the dimensional analysis approach. The scenarios studied were the interactive effects of furrow lengths, furrow widths, and slopes steepness; infiltration rates and furrow lengths; and stream sizes, furrow lengths, and slopes steepness on potential furrow irrigation-induced erosion, respectively. The severity of FIIE was found to relate somewhat linearly with slope and stream size, and inversely with furrow lengths and furrow width. The worst soil erosion (378.05 t/ha/yr) was found as a result of the interactive effects of 0.65 m furrow width, 50 m furrow length, and 0.25% slope steepness; and the least soil erosion (0.013 t/ha/yr) was induced by the combined effects of 0.5 l/s, 200 m furrow length, and 0.05% slope steepness. Evidently considering longer furrows in furrow irrigation designs would be a better alternative of averting excessive FIIE.

  4. Multivariate erosion risk assessment of lateritic badlands of Birbhum

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Each geomorphic hazard involves a degree of risk which incorporates quantification of the probability that a hazard will be harmful. At present, the categorization of sub-watersheds into erosion risk is considered as the fundamental step to conserve the soil loss. Development of badlands over the laterites of Birbhum district ...

  5. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2017-07-01

    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  6. Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land conversion to cropland is one of the major causes of severe soil erosion in Africa. This study assesses the current cropland extent and the related soil erosion risk in Rwanda, a country that experienced the most rapid population growth and cropland expansion in Africa over the last decade. The land cover land use (LCLU map of Rwanda in 2015 was developed using Landsat-8 imagery. Based on the obtained LCLU map and the spatial datasets of precipitation, soil properties and elevation, the soil erosion rate of Rwanda was assessed at 30-m spatial resolution, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model. According to the results, the mean soil erosion rate was 250 t·ha−1·a−1 over the entire country, with a total soil loss rate of approximately 595 million tons per year. The mean soil erosion rate over cropland, which occupied 56% of the national land area, was estimated at 421 t·ha−1·a−1 and was responsible for about 95% of the national soil loss. About 24% of the croplands in Rwanda had a soil erosion rate larger than 300 t·ha−1·a−1, indicating their unsuitability for cultivation. With a mean soil erosion rate of 1642 t·ha−1·a−1, these unsuitable croplands were responsible for 90% of the national soil loss. Most of the unsuitable croplands are distributed in the Congo Nile Ridge, Volcanic Range mountain areas in the west and the Buberuka highlands in the north, regions characterized by steep slopes (>30% and strong rainfall. Soil conservation practices, such as the terracing cultivation method, are paramount to preserve the soil. According to our assessment, terracing alone could reduce the mean cropland soil erosion rate and the national soil loss by 79% and 75%, respectively. After terracing, only a small proportion of 7.6% of the current croplands would still be exposed to extreme soil erosion with a rate >300 t·ha−1·a−1. These irremediable cropland areas should be returned to mountain forest to

  7. Development of erosion risk map using fuzzy logic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fauzi Manyuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Erosion-hazard assessment is an important aspect in the management of a river basin such as Siak River Basin, Riau Province, Indonesia. This study presents an application of fuzzy logic approach to develop erosion risk map based on geographic information system. Fuzzy logic is a computing approach based on “degrees of truth” rather than the usual “true or false” (1 or 0 Boolean logic on which the modern computer is based. The results of the erosion risk map were verified by using field measurements. The verification result shows that the parameter of soil-erodibility (K indicates a good agreement with field measurement data. The classification of soil-erodibility (K as the result of validation were: very low (0.0–0.1, medium (0.21-0.32, high (0.44-0.55 and very high (0.56-0.64. The results obtained from this study show that the erosion risk map of Siak River Basin were dominantly classified as medium level which cover about 68.54%. The other classifications were high and very low erosion level which cover about 28.84% and 2.61% respectively.

  8. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

    2016-05-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-04-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  10. How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  11. Runoff erosion

    OpenAIRE

    Evelpidou, Niki (Ed.); Cordier, Stephane (Ed.); Merino, Agustin (Ed.); Figueiredo, Tomás de (Ed.); Centeri, Csaba (Ed.)

    2013-01-01

    Table of Contents PART I – THEORY OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 1 - RUNOFF EROSION – THE MECHANISMS CHAPTER 2 - LARGE SCALE APPROACHES OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 3 - MEASURING PRESENT RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 4 - MODELLING RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 5 - RUNOFF EROSION AND HUMAN SOCIETIES: THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION PART II - CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES – INTRODUCTION: RUNOFF EROSION IN MEDITERRANEAN AREA CASE STUDY 1: Soil Erosion Risk...

  12. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pásztor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  13. Identification of vulnerable areas for gully erosion under different scenarios of land abandonment in Southeast Spain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Kok, K.; Verburg, P.H.; Cammeraat, L.H.

    2007-01-01

    Abandonment of agricultural land is one of the main changes in Mediterranean land use. To mitigate runoff and erosion from abandoned land, it is necessary to identify locations that are vulnerable to erosion as a result of land abandonment. The objective of our study was to identify vulnerable areas

  14. Prevalence and Extrinsic Risk Factors for Dental Erosion in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mafla, Ana C; Cerón-Bastidas, Ximena A; Munoz-Ceballos, Maria E; Vallejo-Bravo, Diana C; Fajardo-Santacruz, Maria C

    This manuscript examined the prevalence and extrinsic risk factors for dental erosion (DE) in early and middle adolescents in Pasto, Colombia. Dental erosion was evaluated in a random sample of 384 individuals aged 10-15 years attending three primary and high schools in this cross-sectional study. Clinical dental assessment for DE was done using O'Sullivan index. Data on general sociodemographic variables and extrinsic risks factors were obtained. Descriptive and univariate binary logistic regression analyses were performed. Dental erosion was observed in 57.3% of individuals. The univariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that frequency of drinking natural fruit juices (OR 2.670, 95% CI 1.346 - 5.295, P=0.004) and their pH (OR 2.303, 95% CI 1.292 - 4.107, P=0.004) were more associated with the odd of DE in early adolescence. However, a high SES (OR 10.360, 95% CI 3.700 - 29.010, P<0.001) and frequency of snacks with artificial lemon taste (OR 3.659, 95% CI 1.506 - 8.891, P=0.003) were highly associated with the risk of DE in middle adolescence. The results suggest that DE is a prevalent condition in adolescents living in a city in southern Colombia. The transition from early to middle adolescence implies new bio-psychosocial changes, which increase the risk for DE.

  15. Communicating and Visualizing Erosion-associated Risks to Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Caspar; Simpson, Carolyn; Wainwright, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil erosion is a major problem worldwide, affecting agriculture, the natural environment and urban areas through its impact on flood risk, water quality, loss of nutrient-rich upper soil layers, eutrophication of water bodies, sedimentation of waterways and sediment-related damage to roads, buildings and infrastructure such as water, gas and electricity supply networks. This study focuses on risks to infrastructure associated with erosion and the interventions needed to reduce those risks. Deciding on what interventions to make means understanding better which parts of the landscape are most susceptible to erosion and which measures are most effective in reducing it. Effective ways of communicating mitigation strategies to stakeholders such as farmers, land managers and policy-makers are then essential if interventions are to be implemented. Drawing on the Decision-Support Matrix (DSM) approach which combines a set of hydrological principles with Participatory Action Research (PAR), a decision-support tool for Communicating and Visualizing Erosion-Associated Risks to Infrastructure (CAVERTI) was developed. The participatory component was developed with the Wear Rivers Trust, focusing on a case-study area in the North East of England. The CAVERTI tool brings together process understanding gained from modelling with knowledge and experience of a variety of stakeholders to address directly the problem of sediment transport. Development of the tool was a collaborative venture, ensuring that the problems and solutions presented are easily recognised by practitioners and decision-makers. This recognition, and ease of access via a web-based interface, in turn help to ensure that the tools get used. The web-based tool developed helps to assess, manage and improve understanding of risk from a multi-stakeholder perspective and proposes solutions to problems. We argue that visualization and communication tools co-developed by researchers and stakeholders are the best means

  16. Soil erosion simulations of land use scenarios for a small Loess Plateau catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Messing, I.; Hessel, R.; Chen Liding,; Ritsema, C.J.; Stolte, J.

    2003-01-01

    Several land use scenarios were developed for the 3.5 km2 Danangou catchment on the Chinese Loess Plateau. These scenarios consist of four groups of three scenarios each: one group is based on the present land use distribution, the other three (alternative land uses) on a redistribution of land use

  17. Wildfire disturbance, erosion and sedimentation risks following the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that causes abrupt changes to hydrological responses and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Burning hillslope vegetation during wildfires induces changes to sediment supply and stream flow magnitude. Altered post-fire processes such as channel erosion and sedimentation or flooding enhance downstream hazards that may threaten human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using data from a small drainage basin (Williams Canyon, 4.7 km2) in the Colorado front range burned by the 2012 Waldo Fire as a case study, we investigate post-fire recovery and assess changes in fire-related risks to downstream areas. Our local ground-based precipitation, field measurements, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning together with satellite-based remote sensing data (i.e. Landsat) provide a basis for time series analyses of reach-scale erosion and sedimentation response to rainfall patterns as vegetation patterns change following the wildfire. As a first step in quantifying the likelihood and consequences of specific risk scenarios, we examine changes in the combined probability of storm flows and post-fire erosion and sedimentation as vegetation recovers within the study watershed. We explore possible feedbacks and thresholds related to vegetation-hydrology-sediment interactions following wildfire under changing climate regimes. This information is needed to assist in post-fire management to promote sustainability of wildland fluvial systems.

  18. Past and future drivers of increased erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We use hourly observations of water levels from two tide gauges and wave data from three buoys to assess their relative contribution to past and potential future changes in the erosion risk for Dauphin Island, a barrier island located off the coastline of Alabama. Topographic information (i.e. beach slopes and dune toe and crest heights) is obtained from the most recent lidar survey conducted in the area in July 2013. Water levels and wave parameters (i.e. significant wave height and peak period) from the two tide gauges and three wave buoys are merged into single records spanning the period from 1981 to 2013. The Stockdon et al. (2006) run-up model is used to estimate the 2% exceedance values of wave run-up maxima, which are then combined with the observed water levels at the representative tide gauge site to obtain total water levels (TWLs). With this information we assess the relative contribution of geocentric sea level rise, vertical land-movement, and long-term changes in the wave parameters to the observed increase in erosion risk. The latter is approximated using the concept of impact hours per year (IHPY; Ruggiero 2013) at dune toe and dune crest elevation thresholds derived from the lidar data. Wahl et al. (2014) recently discovered a significant increase in the amplitude of the seasonal sea level cycle in the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we explore the potential of these changes, and similar developments in the seasonal cycle of the wave data and corresponding IHPY, to affect coastal erosion. Such intra-annual signals with longer-term variations have not been included in most earlier studies in favour of analysing the effects of annually averaged long-term trends. Finally, scenarios of potential future changes of all relevant parameters are used to explore their relative contribution to further increase in the coastal erosion risk over the next few decades.

  19. Modeling ephemeral gully erosion from unpaved roads: Equifinality and implications for scenario analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modeling gully erosion in urban areas is challenging due to difficulties with equifinality and parameter identification, which complicates quantification of management impacts on runoff and sediment production. We calibrated a model (AnnAGNPS) of an ephemeral gully network that formed on unpaved ro...

  20. RUNOFF AND EROSION IN DIFFERENT (AGRO CLIMATOLOGICAL ZONES OF LATIN AMERICA AND PROPOSALS FOR SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Gabriels

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Steeplands, when cleared from forests, are susceptible to erosion by rainfall and are prone toland degradation and desertification processes.The dominant factors affecting those erosion processes and hence the resulting runoff and soillosses are the aggressiveness of the rainfall during the successive plant growth stages, the soilcover-management, but also the topography (slope length and slope steepness. Depending onthe type of (agro climatological zone, the runoff water should either be limited and controlled(excess of water or should be enhanced and collected from the slope on the downslopecropping area if water is short (negative soil water balance.Examples are given of practical applications in Ecuador where alternative soil conservationscenarios are proposed in maize cultivation in small fields on steep slopes. Adding peas andbarley in the rotation of maize and beans resulted only in a slight decrease of the soil losses.Subdividing the fields into smaller parcels proved to give the best reduction in soil loss.Because the average slope steepness is high, erosion control measures such as contourploughing and strip cropping have only small effects.Erosion and its effect on productivity of a sorghum -livestock farming system are assessed onfour different areas in Venezuela with different levels of erosion. A Productivity Index (PIand an Erosion Risk Index (ERI were used to classify the lands for soil conservationpriorities and for alternative land uses. Intensive agriculture can be applied on slightly erodedsoil, whereas severely eroded soil can be used with special crops or agro-forestry. Semiintensiveagriculture is possible on moderately eroded soil.Reforestation of drylands in Chili requires understanding of the infiltration/runoff process inorder to determine dimensions of water harvesting systems. Infiltration processes in semi-aridregions of Chile were evaluated, using rainfall experiments and constant-head infiltrationmeasurements

  1. Identification of soil erosion risk areas for conservation planning in different states of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharda, V N; Mandal, Debashis; Ojasvi, P R

    2013-03-01

    Assessment of soil erosion risks, especially in the developing countries, is a challenging task mainly due to non-availability or insufficiency of relevant data. In this paper, the soil erosion risks have been estimated by integrating the spatial data on potential erosion rates and soil loss tolerance limits for conservation planning at state level in India. The erosion risk classes have been prioritized based upon the difference between the prevailing erosion rates and the permissible erosion limits. The analysis revealed that about 50% of total geographical area (TGA) of India, falling in five priority erosion risk classes, requires different intensity of conservation measures though about 91% area suffers from potential erosion rates varying from 40 t ha(-1) yr(-1). Statewise analysis indicated that Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan share about 75% of total area under priority Class 1 (6.4 M ha) though they account for only 19.4% of the total area (36.2 M ha) under very severe potential erosion rate category (> 40 t ha(-1)yr(-1)). It was observed that about 75% of total geographical area (TGA) in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Punjab does not require any specific soil conservation measure as the potential erosion rates are well within the tolerance limits. The developed methodology can be successfully employed for prioritization of erosion risk areas at watershed, region or country level.

  2. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  3. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  4. An empirical approach to estimate soil erosion risk in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Fernández, Luis; Martínez-Núñez, Margarita

    2011-08-01

    Soil erosion is one of the most important factors in land degradation and influences desertification worldwide. In 2001, the Spanish Ministry of the Environment launched the 'National Inventory of Soil Erosion (INES) 2002-2012' to study the process of soil erosion in Spain. The aim of the current article is to assess the usefulness of this National Inventory as an instrument of control, measurement and monitoring of soil erosion in Spain. The methodology and main features of this National Inventory are described in detail. The results achieved as of the end of May 2010 are presented, together with an explanation of the utility of the Inventory as a tool for planning forest hydrologic restoration, soil protection, erosion control, and protection against desertification. Finally, the authors make a comparative analysis of similar initiatives for assessing soil erosion in other countries at the national and European levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  6. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  7. Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2017-04-01

    In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

  8. How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

    2016-04-01

    The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

  9. Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

  10. Sponge erosion under acidification and warming scenarios: differential impacts on living and dead coral.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubler, Amber D; Furman, Bradley T; Peterson, Bradley J

    2015-11-01

    Ocean acidification will disproportionately impact the growth of calcifying organisms in coral reef ecosystems. Simultaneously, sponge bioerosion rates have been shown to increase as seawater pH decreases. We conducted a 20-week experiment that included a 4-week acclimation period with a high number of replicate tanks and a fully orthogonal design with two levels of temperature (ambient and +1 °C), three levels of pH (8.1, 7.8, and 7.6), and two levels of boring sponge (Cliona varians, present and absent) to account for differences in sponge attachment and carbonate change for both living and dead coral substrate (Porites furcata). Net coral calcification, net dissolution/bioerosion, coral and sponge survival, sponge attachment, and sponge symbiont health were evaluated. Additionally, we used the empirical data from the experiment to develop a stochastic simulation of carbonate change for small coral clusters (i.e., simulated reefs). Our findings suggest differential impacts of temperature, pH and sponge presence for living and dead corals. Net coral calcification (mg CaCO3  cm(-2)  day(-1) ) was significantly reduced in treatments with increased temperature (+1 °C) and when sponges were present; acidification had no significant effect on coral calcification. Net dissolution of dead coral was primarily driven by pH, regardless of sponge presence or seawater temperature. A reevaluation of the current paradigm of coral carbonate change under future acidification and warming scenarios should include ecologically relevant timescales, species interactions, and community organization to more accurately predict ecosystem-level response to future conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

  12. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  13. Mapping soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto Paixão, H. M.; Granja Martins, F. M.; Zavala, L. M.; Jordán, A.; Bellinfante, N.

    2012-04-01

    Geomorphological processes can pose environmental risks to people and economical activities. Information and a better knowledge of the genesis of these processes is important for environmental planning, since it allows to model, quantify and classify risks, what can mitigate the threats. The objective of this research is to assess the soil erosion risk in Serra de Grândola, which is a north-south oriented mountain ridge with an altitude of 383 m, located in southwest of Alentejo (southern Portugal). The study area is 675 km2, including the councils of Grândola, Santiago do Cacém and Sines. The process for mapping of erosive status was based on the guidelines for measuring and mapping the processes of erosion of coastal areas of the Mediterranean proposed by PAP/RAC (1997), developed and later modified by other authors in different areas. This method is based on the application of a geographic information system that integrates different types of spatial information inserted into a digital terrain model and in their derivative models. Erosive status are classified using information from soil erodibility, slope, land use and vegetation cover. The rainfall erosivity map was obtained using the modified Fournier index, calculated from the mean monthly rainfall, as recorded in 30 meteorological stations with influence in the study area. Finally, the soil erosion risk map was designed by ovelaying the erosive status map and the rainfall erosivity map.

  14. Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

    2000-01-01

    Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

  15. Soil erosion risk assessment using interviews, empirical soil erosion modeling (RUSLE) and fallout radionuclides in a volcanic crater lake watershed subjected to land use change, western Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Crop, Wannes; Ryken, Nick; Tomma Okuonzia, Judith; Van Ranst, Eric; Baert, Geert; Boeckx, Pascal; Verschuren, Dirk; Verdoodt, Ann

    2017-04-01

    Population pressure results in conversion of natural vegetation to cropland within the western Ugandan crater lake watersheds. These watersheds however are particularly prone to soil degradation and erosion because of the high rainfall intensity and steep topography. Increased soil erosion losses expose the aquatic ecosystems to excessive nutrient loading. In this study, the Katinda crater lake watershed, which is already heavily impacted by agricultural land use, was selected for an explorative study on its (top)soil characteristics - given the general lack of data on soils within these watersheds - as well as an assessment of soil erosion risks. Using group discussions and structured interviews, the local land users' perceptions on land use, soil quality, soil erosion and lake ecology were compiled. Datasets on rainfall, topsoil characteristics, slope gradient and length, and land use were collected. Subsequently a RUSLE erosion model was run. Results from this empirical erosion modeling approach were validated against soil erosion estimates based on 137Cs measurements.

  16. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  17. Estimating the Soil Erosion Risk Around Ankara-Bağlum Kösrelik Pond Using CORINE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emel YALÇIN

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Rural Recreation Area of Kösrelik Pond in the Keçiören district of Ankara was studied. The maps of potential and actual soil erosion risk of about 65 ha of the environment surrounding the pond, which was planned as a rural recreation area, were investigated using CORINE methodology. Accordingly, the necessary physical and chemical soil analyses were performed on 10 surface samples and soil samples from 4 profiles additionally opened on the field, and the maps were created by CORINE methodology using GIS technologies. According to the results of the potential soil erosion risk map obtained in this study, no potential erosion risk was found in 10% whereas, low risk of potential erosion was determined in 9%. In addition medium risk of potential erosion was found in 66%, and high risk of potential erosion was found in 15% of the total area. Nevertheless, according to the results of the actual soil erosion risk map, no actual erosion risk was found in 10% whereas, low risk was found in 2%, medium risk was found in 24%. Moreover, high risk of actual erosion was found in 64% of the total area. It has been observed that the natural vegetation within the study area has substantially prevented erosion. The amount of erosion substantially increases due to the destruction of natural vegetation and soil cultivation of agricultural land

  18. Device closure of secundum atrial septal defect's and the risk of cardiac erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, J D R; Qureshi, S A

    2015-12-01

    Cardiac erosion related to transcatheter atrial septal defect closure devices is of increasing concern. Erosion is reported to have occurred with most of currently available occluder devices. Perhaps due to the very large number of implants worldwide, the Amplatzer (St Jude) occluder is associated with the majority of cardiac erosion events reported in the literature. Best current estimates of the incidence of erosion with the St Jude device are between one and three cases per 1000 implants. Most events occur early after implantation and it is rare, although not unheard of, for events to occur after a year following device insertion. It is important that those involved with closure programmes are vigilant for the problem, because device-related erosion is associated with a significant mortality risk. Despite considerable debate, the risk factors (either patient or device) for erosion remain unclear and require further investigation. Currently available data sets have focussed largely on erosion cohorts and are unable to place these cases in appropriate context with non-erosion closure cases. What is certain is that programmes implanting these devices must take care to implant appropriately sized devices and have in place plans to ensure that patients are both well informed and can access help and advice in the event of developing symptoms.

  19. Recommendations of activity restriction in high-risk pregnancy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendix, Jane; Hegaard, Hanne Kristine; Bergholt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    activity restriction more often than obstetricians in five of the nine scenarios, in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes, preterm labour, cervical ripening, total placenta praevia, and intrauterine growth restriction, whereas no differences were found in the remaining scenarios. Compared...... to the obstetricians, the midwives also reported that they expected the recommendation to be more effective. Most midwives and obstetricians reported that they thought strict activity restriction was associated with severe or moderate adverse effect, and recommended antithrombotic prophylaxis. Conclusions: Danish...... obstetricians and midwives prescribe activity restriction in most high-risk pregnancies. The degree of activity restriction and the presumed effect vary between clinicians. This may reflect different attitudes and lack of guidelines based on clinical studies of a possible benefit of activity restriction....

  20. Assessing soil erosion risk using RUSLE through a GIS open source desktop and web application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, L; Teodoro, A C; Gonçalves, J A; Soares, D; Cunha, M

    2016-06-01

    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem. An estimation of the expected soil loss by water-caused erosion can be calculated considering the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Geographical Information Systems (GIS) provide different tools to create categorical maps of soil erosion risk which help to study the risk assessment of soil loss. The objective of this study was to develop a GIS open source application (in QGIS), using the RUSLE methodology for estimating erosion rate at the watershed scale (desktop application) and provide the same application via web access (web application). The applications developed allow one to generate all the maps necessary to evaluate the soil erosion risk. Several libraries and algorithms from SEXTANTE were used to develop these applications. These applications were tested in Montalegre municipality (Portugal). The maps involved in RUSLE method-soil erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, topographic factor, cover management factor, and support practices-were created. The estimated mean value of the soil loss obtained was 220 ton km(-2) year(-1) ranged from 0.27 to 1283 ton km(-2) year(-1). The results indicated that most of the study area (80 %) is characterized by very low soil erosion level (soil erosion was higher than 962 ton km(-2) year(-1). It was also concluded that areas with high slope values and bare soil are related with high level of erosion and the higher the P and C values, the higher the soil erosion percentage. The RUSLE web and the desktop application are freely available.

  1. Probabilistic estimation of dune erosion and coastal zone risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, F.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal erosion has gained global attention and has been studied for many decades. As a soft sea defence structure, coastal sandy dunes protect coastal zones all over the world, which usually are densely populated areas with tremendous economic value. The coastal zone of the Netherlands, one of the

  2. Mapping Erosion Risk in California's Rangelands Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salls, W. B.; O'Geen, T. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil loss constitutes a multi-faceted problem for agriculture: in addition to reducing soil fertility and crop yield, it compromises downstream water quality. Sediment itself is a major issue for aquatic ecosystems, but also serves as a vector for transporting nutrients, pesticides, and pathogens. Rangelands are thought to be a contributor to water quality degradation in California, particularly in the northern Coast Range. Though total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) have been imposed in some watersheds, and countless rangeland water quality outreach activities have been conducted, the connection between grazing intensity recommendations and changes in water quality is poorly understood at the state level. This disconnect gives rise to poorly informed regulations and discourages adoption of best management practices by ranchers. By applying the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) at a statewide scale, we highlighted areas most prone to erosion. We also investigated how two different grazing intensity scenarios affect modeled soil loss. Geospatial data layers representing the USLE parameters—rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, and cover—were overlaid to model annual soil loss. Monitored suspended sediment data from a small North Coast watershed with grazing as the predominant land use was used to validate the model. Modeled soil loss values were nearly one order of magnitude higher than monitored values; average soil loss feeding the downstream-most site was modeled at 0.329 t ha-1 yr-1, whereas storm-derived sediment passing the site over two years was calculated to be 0.037 t ha-1 yr-1. This discrepancy may stem from the fact that the USLE models detached sediment, whereas stream monitoring reflects sediment detached and subsequently transported to the waterway. Preliminary findings from the statewide map support the concern that the North Coast is particularly at risk given its combination of intense rain, erodible soils, and

  3. Dental erosion prevalence and associated risk indicators among preschool children in Athens, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantonanaki, Magdalini; Koletsi-Kounari, Haroula; Mamai-Homata, Eleni; Papaioannou, William

    2013-03-01

    The aims of the study were to investigate dental erosion prevalence, distribution and severity in Greek preschool children attending public kindergartens in the prefecture of Attica, Greece and to determine the effect of dental caries, oral hygiene level, socio-economic factors, dental behavior, erosion related medication and chronic illness. A random and stratified sample of 605 Greek preschool children was clinically examined for dental erosion using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination Index (ΒΕWE). Dental caries (dmfs) and Simplified Debris Index were also recorded. The data concerning possible risk indicators were derived by a questionnaire. Zero-inflated Poisson regression was generated to test the predictive effects of the independent variables on dental erosion. The prevalence of dental erosion was 78.8 %, and the mean and SE of BEWE index was 3.64 ± 0.15. High monthly family income was positively related to ΒΕWE cumulative scores [RR = 1.204 (1.016-1.427)], while high maternal education level [RR = 0.872 (0.771-0.986)] and poor oral hygiene level [DI-s, RR = 0.584 (0.450-0.756)] showed a negative association. Dental erosion is a common oral disease in Greek preschool children in Attica, related to oral hygiene and socio-economic factors. Programs aimed at erosion prevention should begin at an early age for all children.

  4. Mapping regional soil water erosion risk in the Brittany-Loire basin for water management agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degan, Francesca; Cerdan, Olivier; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Gautier, Jean-Noël

    2014-05-01

    Soil water erosion is one of the main degradation processes that affect soils through the removal of soil particles from the surface. The impacts for environment and agricultural areas are diverse, such as water pollution, crop yield depression, organic matter loss and reduction in water storage capacity. There is therefore a strong need to produce maps at the regional scale to help environmental policy makers and soil and water management bodies to mitigate the effect of water and soil pollution. Our approach aims to model and map soil erosion risk at regional scale (155 000 km²) and high spatial resolution (50 m) in the Brittany - Loire basin. The factors responsible for soil erosion are different according to the spatial and time scales considered. The regional scale entails challenges about homogeneous data sets availability, spatial resolution of results, various erosion processes and agricultural practices. We chose to improve the MESALES model (Le Bissonnais et al., 2002) to map soil erosion risk, because it was developed specifically for water erosion in agricultural fields in temperate areas. The MESALES model consists in a decision tree which gives for each combination of factors the corresponding class of soil erosion risk. Four factors that determine soil erosion risk are considered: soils, land cover, climate and topography. The first main improvement of the model consists in using newly available datasets that are more accurate than the initial ones. The datasets used cover all the study area homogeneously. Soil dataset has a 1/1 000 000 scale and attributes such as texture, soil type, rock fragment and parent material are used. The climate dataset has a spatial resolution of 8 km and a temporal resolution of mm/day for 12 years. Elevation dataset has a spatial resolution of 50 m. Three different land cover datasets are used where the finest spatial resolution is 50 m over three years. Using these datasets, four erosion factors are characterized and

  5. SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

  6. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  7. Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The Gumbel-Chow distribution was adequate for the estimation of all studied variables. The mean annual erosivity corresponds to the return period of 2.25 years. The data series of the annual maximum individual rainfall erosivity coefficients varied from 47 to 50%.

  8. The determination of risk areas for muddy floods based on a worst-case erosion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saathoff, Ulfert; Schindewolf, Marcus; Annika Arévalo, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion and muddy floods are a frequently occurring hazard in the German state of Saxony, because of the topography and the high relief energy together with the high proportion of arable land. Still, the events are rather heterogeneously distributed and we do not know where damage is likely to occur. The goal of this study is to locate hot spots for the risk of muddy floods, with the objective to prevent high economic damage in future. We applied a soil erosion and deposition map of Saxony, calculated with the process based soil erosion model EROSION 3D. This map shows the potential soil erosion and transported sediment for worst case soil conditions and a 10 year rain storm event. Furthermore, a map of the current landuse in the state is used. From the landuse map, we extracted those areas that are especially vulnerable to muddy floods, like residential and industrial areas, infrastructural facilities (e.g. power plants, hospitals) and highways. In combination with the output of the soil erosion model, the amount of sediment, that enters each single landuse entity, is calculated. Based on this data, a state-wide map with classified risks is created. The results are furthermore used to identify the risk of muddy floods for each single municipality in Saxony. The results are evaluated with data of real occurred muddy flood events with documented locations during the period between 2000 and 2010. Additionally, plausibility tests are performed for selected areas (examination of landuse, topography and soil). The results prove to be plausible and most of the documented events can be explained by the modelled risk map. The created map can be used by different institutions like city and traffic planners, to estimate the risk of muddy flood occurrence at specific locations. Furthermore, the risk map can serve insurance companies to evaluate the insurance risk of a building. To make them easily accessible, the risk map will be published online via a web GIS

  9. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

    2015-01-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  10. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  11. Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

    The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

  12. Application of SEAGIS model for assessing risks of erosion in the watershed of Lake hills of M'Richet el Anze (Bargou, Siliana)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touihri, Nouha

    2013-01-01

    Water erosion is a major problem in the world; it results from the agricultural intensification, the climatic variations, the nature and use of soil. The study of erosion risk requires the understanding the factor from which he is influenced. So it facilitates the decision-making regarding the proper management and restoration of soils. Several studies on erosion in Tunisia have been made. The present study aims to develop an easy method, based on the integration of map data (administrative boundaries, soil layers) and statistical data (rainfall) in a GIS for the identification and mapping of vulnerable soils to erosion. The methodology used, was to retain and study the parameters of the relevant factors influencing the phenomenon (the erosivite of rainfall, the topographic index, the occupation of grounds and the soil erodibility). Then after a consolidation of individual parameters of these different factors, they have been folded under the ArcView GIS 3.2a as a model of vulnerability of soils previously established. The model established by a tree of entrance. He allows the crossing of five factors(mailmen) (the erosivite of the rain (R), pedological card(map) ( K ), card(map) of activity(occupation) of ground ( C ), digital model of the ground ( MNT), the factor(mailman) of arrangement(development) ( P )) in the tree of entered and this led to the realization of the erosion hazard map. Then the result of the erosion hazard is crossed to determine the soil loss map. The results were used to locate five classes of vulnerabilities of soil erosion (very low, low, medium, high and very high). These results are used to simulate water conservation management scenarios end the fight against erosion.

  13. Risk behaviors related to eating disorders in adolescents and its association with dental erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniella Fagundes SOUTO

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction The overvaluation of thinness as a standard of beauty has contributed to the development of eating disorders and has mainly affected adolescents and young adults. Objective To evaluate the prevalence of risk behaviors for eating disorders and their association with dental erosion in adolescents. Material and method This is a cross-sectional observational epidemiological study. The sample consisted of 278 adolescents aged 12 to 19 years, enrolled in a State School in Campinas - SP. Two questionnaires were used for the data collection on eating disorders: Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh and Eating Attitudes Test -26. The presence of erosion was evaluated by calibrated examiners. Result The mean age of the sample was 14.8 years. The prevalence of mean risk for bulimia in the sample was 43.2% (95% CI: 37.3%-49.0% and the prevalence of adolescents with a probability of developing bulimia was 53.2% (95% CI: 47.4%-59.1%. Of the total, 11.9% (95% CI: 8.1%-15.7% showed results suggestive of anorexia. Among women, 66.9% were classified as probability developing bulimia, whereas in men the prevalence was 39.0%. As for dental erosion, only 1.1% of the sample presented erosion. Conclusion The study pointed to large number of adolescents with risk behaviors for eating disorders but no association was found with dental erosion due to low prevalence.

  14. Comparison of two occurrence risk assessment methods for collapse gully erosion ——A case study in Guangdong province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, K.; Cheng, D. B.; He, J. J.; Zhao, Y. L.

    2018-02-01

    Collapse gully erosion is a specific type of soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, and early warning and prevention of the occurrence of collapse gully erosion is very important. Based on the idea of risk assessment, this research, taking Guangdong province as an example, adopt the information acquisition analysis and the logistic regression analysis, to discuss the feasibility for collapse gully erosion risk assessment in regional scale, and compare the applicability of the different risk assessment methods. The results show that in the Guangdong province, the risk degree of collapse gully erosion occurrence is high in northeastern and western area, and relatively low in southwestern and central part. The comparing analysis of the different risk assessment methods on collapse gully also indicated that the risk distribution patterns from the different methods were basically consistent. However, the accuracy of risk map from the information acquisition analysis method was slightly better than that from the logistic regression analysis method.

  15. Spatial distribution of water erosion risk in a watershed with eucalyptus and Atlantic Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junior Cesar Avanzi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The process of water erosion occurs in watersheds throughout the world and it is strongly affected by anthropogenic influences. Thus, the knowledge of these processes is extremely necessary for planning of conservation efforts. This study was performed in an experimental forested watershed in order to predict the average potential annual soil loss by water erosion using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE and a Geographic Information System (GIS, and then compared with soil loss tolerance. All the USLE factors were generated in a distributed approach employing a GIS tool. The layers were multiplied in the GIS framework in order to predict soil erosion rates. Results showed that the average soil loss was 6.2 Mg ha-1 yr-1. Relative to soil loss tolerance, 83% of the area had an erosion rate lesser than the tolerable value. According to soil loss classes, 49% of the watershed had erosion less than 2.5 Mg ha-1 yr-1. However, about 8.7% of the watershed had erosion rates greater than 15 Mg ha-1 yr-1, being mainly related to Plinthosol soil class and roads, thus requiring special attention for the improvement of sustainable management practices for such areas. Eucalyptus cultivation was found to have soil loss greater than Atlantic Forest. Thus, an effort should be made to bring the erosion rates closer to the native forest. Implementation of the USLE model in a GIS framework was found to be a simple and useful tool for predicting the spatial variation of soil erosion risk and identifying critical areas for conservation efforts.

  16. Occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion in the population of young adults in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmyhr, Øyvind; Grytten, Jostein; Holst, Dorthe

    2012-10-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion for a group of young adults who are particularly susceptible to erosion. Another aim was to describe the awareness of erosion and distribution of risk factors according to the educational background of the parents. The sample (n = 2004 individuals) was randomly drawn from the population of 19-20-year-old Norwegians. The data were collected using telephone interviews. We measured awareness about erosion using the following question: 'Have you ever heard about dental erosion?' We obtained information about the frequency of intake of the following risk factors: soft drinks with and without sugar, and juice. Soft drinks with sugar included lemonade (Coca-Cola, Solo, Pepsi, Mozell and ice tea) and sport drinks (XL1, Maxim). Soft drinks without sugar included Cola light, Zero, PepsiMax, Solo light and ice tea light. Juice included orange, grapefruit, apple and kiwi juice. The parents' level of education was based on the Norwegian school system, which has three levels: compulsory schooling (10 years), upper secondary school education (up to 13 years) and university/college education. The data were analysed using logistic regressions analyses. Awareness of erosion was high - 93.5% of respondents were aware of the problem. The majority of respondents believed that erosion can be prevented - altogether 84.9%. They also believed that soft drinks with and without sugar are equally important for the development of erosion. 17.5% of respondents drank soft drinks with sugar daily or several times a day. The corresponding figures for soft drinks without sugar and juice were 4.9% and 34.1%, respectively. Young adults with mothers with high education drank soft drinks both with and without sugar less frequently than those who had mothers with low education. This pattern was the opposite for juice. Consumption of soft drinks and juice is high, even though awareness and knowledge about the causes

  17. Using the Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Erosion Risk Mapping of Kartalkaya Dam Watershed in Kahramanmaras, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah E. Akay

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The soil erosion is the most serious environmental problem in watershed areas in Turkey. The main factors affecting the amount of soil erosion include vegetation cover, topography, soil, and climate. In order to describe the areas with high soil erosion risks and to develop adequate erosion prevention measures in the watersheds of dams, erosion risk maps should be generated considering these factors. Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS technologies were used for erosion risk mapping in Kartalkaya Dam Watershed of Kahramanmaras, Turkey, based on the methodology implemented in COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE model. ASTER imagery was used to generate a land use/cover classification in ERDAS Imagine. The digital maps of the other factors (topography, soil types, and climate were generated in ArcGIS v9.2, and were then integrated as CORINE input files to produce erosion risk maps. The results indicate that 33.82%, 35.44%, and 30.74% of the study area were under low, moderate, and high actual erosion risks, respectively. The CORINE model integrated with RS and GIS technologies has great potential for producing accurate and inexpensive erosion risk maps in Turkey.

  18. A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-01-01

    Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

  19. A universal meteorological method to identify potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Středová Hana

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate of Central Europe, mainly winter seasons with no snow cover at lower altitudes and a spring drought as well, might cause erosion events on heavy-textured soils. The aim of this paper is to define a universal method to identify the potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils. The categorization of potential wind erosion risk due to meteorological conditions is based on: (i an evaluation of the number of freeze-thaw episodes forming bare soil surfaces during the cold period of year; and (ii, an evaluation of the number of days with wet soil surfaces during the cold period of year. In the period 2001–2012 (from November to March, episodes with temperature changes from positive to negative and vice versa (thaw-freeze and freeze-thaw cycles and the effects of wet soil surfaces in connection with aggregate disintegration, are identified. The data are spatially interpolated by GIS tools for areas in the Czech Republic with heavy-textured soils. Blending critical categories is used to locate potential risks. The level of risk is divided into six classes. Those areas identified as potentially most vulnerable are the same localities where the highest number of erosive episodes on heavy-textured soils was documented.

  20. The communication of the risk of coastal erosion in Portugal: a global problem, a local trouble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo BASTO

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the past two decades a set of instruments has been devised by the Portuguese authorities to handle the issue of coastal erosion. We argue that this legal apparatus not only lacks the internal integration necessary for its effectiveness, but it also fails to recognise the ways in which the problem materialises in the everyday life of coastal areas. Through a case study in the village of Furadouro in Western Portugal, we demonstrate how this top-down implementation of policies does not promote a true communication of risks, in the sense that the problem of coastal erosion is not “put in common” across levels of governance.

  1. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

    2016-01-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide

  2. Relationship between Risk Behavior for Eating Disorders and Dental Caries and Dental Erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Lorenna Mendes Temóteo; Fernandes, Liege Helena Freitas; Aragão, Amanda Silva; Aguiar, Yêska Paola Costa; Auad, Sheyla Márcia; de Castro, Ricardo Dias; Cavalcanti, Sérgio D'Ávila Lins Bezerra; Cavalcanti, Alessandro Leite

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there is an association between risk behavior for eating disorders (EDs) and dental erosion and caries. A controlled cross-sectional study was conducted in Brazil, involving 850 randomly selected female adolescents. After evaluating risk behavior for eating disorders through the Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh, 12 adolescents were identified with severe risk behavior for EDs and matched to 48 adolescents without such risk. Dental examinations, anthropometric measurements, and eating habits and oral hygiene were performed. Adolescents with high severity eating disorder condition were not more likely to show dental caries ( p = 0.329; OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 0.35-13.72) or dental erosion ( p = 0.590; OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 0.56-9.70). Adolescents with high body mass index (BMI) were five times more likely to have high severity eating disorder condition ( p = 0.031; OR = 5.1; 95% CI: 1.61-23.07). Therefore, high severity risk behavior for EDs was not significantly associated with dental caries and dental erosion. However, high BMI was a risk factor for developing eating disorders and should be an alert for individuals with this condition.

  3. Erosion risk assessment in the southern Amazon - Data Preprocessing, data base application and process based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Herrmann, Anne-Katrin; Schultze, Nico; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The study region along the BR 16 highway belongs to the "Deforestation Arc" at the southern border of the Amazon rainforest. At the same time, it incorporates a land use gradient as colonization started in the 1975-1990 in Central Mato Grosso in 1990 in northern Mato Grosso and most recently in 2004-2005 in southern Pará. Based on present knowledge soil erosion is one of the key driver of soil degradation. Hence, there is a strong need to implement soil erosion control measures in eroding landscapes. Planning and dimensioning of such measures require reliable and detailed information on the temporal and spatial distribution of soil loss, sediment transport and deposition. Soil erosion models are increasingly used, in order to simulate the physical processes involved and to predict the effects of soil erosion control measures. The process based EROSION 3D simulation model is used for surveying soil erosion and deposition on regional catchments. Although EROSION 3D is a widespread, extensively validated model, the application of the model on regional scale remains challenging due to the enormous data requirements and complex data processing operations. In this context the study includes the compilation, validation and generalisation of existing land use and soil data in order to generate a consistent EROSION 3D input datasets. As a part of this process a GIS-linked data base application allows to transfer the original soil and land use data into model specific parameter files. This combined methodology provides different risk assessment maps for certain demands on regional scale. Besides soil loss and sediment transport, sediment pass over points into surface water bodies and particle enrichment can be simulated using the EROSION 3D model. Thus the estimation of particle bound nutrient and pollutant inputs into surface water bodies becomes possible. The study ended up in a user-friendly, timesaving and improved software package for the simulation of soil loss and

  4. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  5. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, E D

    2005-01-01

    In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

  6. Dynamic Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk Using Landsat TM and HJ Satellite Data in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Han

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Danjiangkou reservoir area is the main water source and the submerged area of the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China. Soil erosion is a factor that significantly influences the quality and transfer of water from the Danjiangkou reservoir. The objective of this study is to assess the water erosion (rill and sheet erosion risk and dynamic change trend of spatial distribution in erosion status and intensity between 2004 and 2010 in the Danjiangkou reservoir area using a multicriteria evaluation method.The multicriteria evaluation method synthesizes the vegetation fraction cover, slope gradient, and land use. Based on the rules and erosion risk assessment results of the study area in 2004 and 2010, the research obtained the conservation priority map. This study result shows an improvement in erosion status of the study area, the eroded area decreased from 32.1% in 2004 to 25.43% in 2010. The unchanged regions dominated the study area and that the total area of improvement grade erosion was larger than that of deterioration grade erosion. The severe, more severe, and extremely severe areas decreased by 4.71%, 2.28%, and 0.61% of the total study area, respectively. The percentages of regions where erosion grade transformed from extremely severe to slight, light and moderate were 0.18%, 0.02%, and 0.30%, respectively. However, a deteriorated region with a 2,897.60 km2 area was still observed. This area cannot be ignored in the determination of a general governance scheme. The top two conservation priority levels cover almost all regions with severe erosion and prominent increase in erosion risk, accounting for 7.31% of the study area. The study results can assist government agencies in decision making for determining erosion control areas, starting regulation projects, and making soil conservation measures.

  7. LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion): a model to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Torri, Dino; Santi, Elisa; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marchesini, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    approaches have been proposed to model separately landslide and erosion processes, only few attempts were made to model both jointly, mostly integrating pre-existing models. To overcome this limitation we develop a new model called LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion), specifically design to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios including: (i) changes of meteorological factors, (ii) changes of vegetation or land-use, (iii) and changes of slope morphology. The was applied in different study area in order to check its basic assumptions, and to test its general operability and applicability. Results show a reasonable model behaviors and confirm its easy applicability in real cases.

  8. Minimizing risk associated with shallow burial of waste in semiarid ecosystems: Erosion and vegetation dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breshears, D.D.; Martens, S.N.; Nyhan, J.W.; Springer, E.P.; Wilcox, B.P.

    1994-01-01

    Numerous regulations govern the disposal of low-level radioactive and hazardous waste by burial in shallow pits. The overall goal of these regulations is to reduce the risk to humans and components of the ecosystem for 500 to 1 000 years. Erosional loss of the soil profile covering waste and contamination of groundwater by leachate are two pathways that influence human and ecological risks. Screening calculations for a waste site in a pinyon-juniper woodland at Los Alamos National Laboratory predict the entire 2 m cover of a waste site could be lost by erosion in less than 500 years. In contrast, less than 0.001% of the waste would reach groundwater by leachate. Predicted erosion rates depend highly on plant cover. The boundary between ponderosa pine forest and pinyon-juniper woodland has shifted more than 1 km in less than 50 years in the Los Alamos region and additional boundary shifts have been hypothesized in conjunction with global warming. High erosion rates (> 0.2 cm per year) have been measured in these transition zones. In concert, these results suggest that risk associated with erosional loss of the waste site cover may greatly exceed risks associated with groundwater contamination in semiarid ecosystems

  9. Dental erosion, prevalence and risk factors among a group of adolescents in Stockholm County.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skalsky Jarkander, M; Grindefjord, M; Carlstedt, K

    2018-02-01

    To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of dental erosion (DE) among a group of adolescents in Stockholm County. This cross sectional cohort study was conducted at three clinics of the Public Dental Service in Stockholm County. Fifteen and 17 year old adolescents (1335) who scheduled their regular dental health examination were asked to participate. After drop-outs a sample of 1071 individuals, 547 males and 524 females were enrolled in the study. Presence of erosive wear was diagnosed (yes/no) on marker teeth by trained dentists/dental hygienists and photographs were taken. The adolescents answered a questionnaire regarding oral symptoms, dietary and behavioural factors. Two calibrated specialist dentists performed evaluation of the photographs for severity of DE using a modified version of the Simplified Erosion Partial Recording System (SEPRS). DE was clinically diagnosed in 28.3% of 15 years old and 34.3% of 17 years old. Severe erosive wear (grade 3 and 4 according to SEPRS) was found in 18.3% of the adolescents based upon the intra-oral photographs. DE was more prevalent and severe among males than females. Clinically diagnosed erosive lesions correlated significantly with soft drink consumption (p < 0.001), the use of juice or sport drinks as a thirst quencher after exercise (p = 0.006) and tooth hypersensitivity when eating and drinking (p = 0.012). Furthermore, self-assessed gastric reflux was a factor strongly associated with DE (p < 0.001). The study indicated that DE was common among adolescents in Stockholm County and associated with both internal and external risk factors.

  10. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    identification, description of accident scenarios and using the conventional approach to develop static event trees for events following a loss of containment. Modelling the impacts and consequences needs models to describe the release, dispersion and effect of the hazardous material, as well as models...

  11. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...

  12. Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

    2009-01-01

    Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

  13. Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

    2009-07-01

    Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for dental erosion among 11- to 14-year-old school children in South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sandeep; Acharya, Shashidhar; Mishra, Prashant; Debnath, Nitai; Vasthare, Ramprasad

    2013-01-01

    This cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and severity of dental erosion and to determine the potential risk factors for dental erosion among 11- to 14-year-old school children in South India. The total sample size for the study was 605, of which 303 school children were from private schools and 302 from public schools. A questionnaire was designed to record information about socio-demographic characteristics, oral hygiene practices, dietary habits and risk factors for dental erosion. Chi square test, bivariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were performed to analyse the data. The children who consumed lemon several times a day (OR = 13.41, P dental erosion. The overall prevalence of dental erosion was found to be low (8.9%). Erosion was found to be greater in posterior teeth (65.6%) than anterior teeth (34.4%). Loss of enamel only with loss of surface contour was observed in most (94.8%) of the cases. The prevalence of dental erosion was found to be low in school children. Private school children were affected more by dental erosion. Frequency of lemon consumption and consumption of carbonated drinks were identified as risk factors.

  15. Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

    2009-07-01

    The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

  16. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  17. Accelerator Disaster Scenarios, the Unabomber, and Scientific Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kapusta, Joseph I.

    2008-01-01

    The possibility that experiments at high-energy accelerators could create new forms of matter that would ultimately destroy the Earth has been considered several times in the past quarter century. One consequence of the earliest of these disaster scenarios was that the authors of a 1993 article in "Physics Today" who reviewed the experiments that had been carried out at the Bevalac at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory were placed on the FBI's Unabomber watch list. Later, concerns that experiments ...

  18. A scenario-driven approach for value, risk and cost analysis in system architecting for innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, M.T.; America, P.H.M.; Hammer, D.K.; Obbink, J.H.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Magee, J.; Szyperski, C.; Bosch, J.

    2004-01-01

    We present a quantitative method for scenario-driven value, risk, and cost analysis when proposing new system architectures for innovation projects. The method helps to articulate the relative benefits and/or disadvantages of the proposed set of scenarios in the early architecting phases of a new

  19. Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riitta Molarius

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

  20. High Risk Scenarios and Extremes, A geometric approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balkema, A.A.; Embrechts, P.A.L.

    2007-01-01

    Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) has become a field of research of considerable importance to numerous areas of application, including insurance, banking, energy, medicine, reliability. Mainly motivated by examples from insurance and finance, the authors develop a theory for handling multivariate

  1. Estimation of soil erosion risk within an important agricultural sub-watershed in Bursa, Turkey, in relation to rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul

    2015-07-01

    This paper integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS model to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss and identify areas of soil erosion risk in the Uluabat sub-watershed, an important agricultural site in Bursa Province, Turkey. The total soil loss from water erosion was 473,274 Mg year(-1). Accordingly, 60.3% of the surveyed area was classified into a very low erosion risk class while 25.7% was found to be in high and severe erosion risk classes. Soil loss had a close relationship with land use and topography. The most severe erosion risk typically occurs on ridges and steep slopes where agriculture, degraded forest, and shrubs are the main land uses and cover types. Another goal of this study was to use GIS to reveal the multi-year urbanization status caused by rapid urbanization that constitutes another soil erosion risk in this area. Urbanization has increased by 57.7% and the most areal change was determined in class I lands at a rate of 80% over 25 years. Urbanization was identified as one of the causes of excessive soil loss in the study area.

  2. Association between dental erosion and possible risk factors: A hospital-based study in gastroesophageal reflux disease patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vamsi Krishna Reddy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD is a condition, with a prevalence of up to 10–20% in the general population. GERD may involve damage to the oral cavity, and dental erosion may occur with a higher frequency. Aim: To estimate the prevalence of dental erosion in GERD patients and to evaluate the association between dental erosion and possible risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in the Sanjay Gandhi Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow among patients attending outpatient department between June and August 2014. The study group comprised 91 subjects with GERD and 114 subjects without GERD. Information regarding symptoms of GERD, medicines, any chronic disease, and dietary habits were recorded. Dental examination was done to assess the presence or absence of dental erosions and its severity was measured using O'Sullivan Index (2000. Statistical analysis was done using Mann–Whitney U-test and Kruskal–Wallis test. Results: Of 91 GERD patients, 87 (95.6% patients had dental erosion. In both groups, association between frequent intake of fruit juice, carbonated drinks, milk, yoghurt, fruits, and tea/coffee with occurrence of dental erosion were statistically significant (P < 0.05. In GERD patients, association between intake of milk and occurrence of dental erosion were statistically significant (P < 0.05. Association of medication with dental erosion was found to be statistically significant (P < 0.05. Chronic diseases like diabetes and asthma were also found to be statistically significant with dental erosion (P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study showed that GERD patients were at increased risk of developing dental erosion compared to controls.

  3. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  4. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  5. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  6. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  7. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  8. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  9. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  10. Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

  11. Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-05-01

    We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

  12. Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-01-01

    We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

  13. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  14. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  15. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  16. Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miranda Sara, L.; Jameson, S.; Pfeffer, K.; Baud, I.

    2016-01-01

    Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities

  17. Development and validation of a method to estimate the potential wind erosion risk in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Roger; Deumlich, Detlef; Völker, Lidia

    2017-04-01

    The introduction of the Cross Compliance (CC) regulations for soil protection resulted in the demand for the classification of the the wind erosion risk on agricultural areas in Germany nationwide. A spatial highly resolved method was needed based on uniform data sets and validation principles, which provides a fair and equivalent procedure for all affected farmers. A GIS-procedure was developed, which derives the site specific wind erosion risk from the main influencing factors: soil texture, wind velocity, wind direction and landscape structure following the German standard DIN 19706. The procedure enables different approaches in the Federal States and comparable classification results. Here, we present the approach of the Federal State of Brandenburg. In the first step a complete soil data map was composed in a grid size of 10 x 10 m. Data were taken from 1.) the Soil quality Appraisal (scale 1:10.000), 2.) the Medium-scale Soil Mapping (MMK, 1:25.000), 3.) extrapolating the MMK, 4.) new Soil quality Appraisal (new areas after coal-mining). Based on the texture and carbon content the wind erosion susceptibility was divided in 6 classes. This map was combined with data of the annual average wind velocity resulting in an increase of the risk classes for wind velocities > 5 ms-1 and a decrease for structure is regarded by allocating a height to each landscape element, corresponding to the described features in the digital "Biotope and Land Use Map". The "hill shade" procedure of ArcGIS was used to set virtual shadows behind the landscape elements for eight directions. The relative frequency of wind from each direction was used as a weighting factor and multiplied with the numerical values of the shadowed cells. Depending on the distance to the landscape element the shadowing effect was combined with the risk classes. The results show that the wind erosion risk is obviously reduced by integrating landscape structures into the risk assessment. After the renewed

  18. Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2015-04-01

    Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this

  19. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  20. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  1. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  2. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  3. A hierachical method for soil erosion assessment and spatial risk modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okoth, P.F.

    2003-01-01

      Though a lot has been done and achieved in erosion research and control in Kenya, most of the erosion research methods have in the past put emphasis more on quantifying soil loss or measuring soil erosion, rather than pinpointing to

  4. Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

  5. Soil Erosion Risk Map based on irregularity of the vegetative activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Tarquis, Ana Maria; Martín-Sotoca, Juan J.; Valencia, Jose L.; Gobin, Anne; Rodriguez-Sinobas, Leonor

    2016-04-01

    Fournier Index on NDVI values seems to synthesize the different parameters of the USLE, referring to rainfall, soil, geomorphology and vegetation cover. Acknowledgements Authors are grateful to TALE project (CICYT PCIN-2014-080) and DURERO project (Env.C1.3913442) for their financial support. References Fournier, F. (1960), Climat et erosion. P.U.F. Paris. Jensen, J.R. (2000). Remote Sensing of the Environment: An Earth Resource Perpective, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Martínez Sotoca, J. J. (2014) estructura espacial de la sequía en pastos y sus aplicaciones en el seguro agrario indexado. (In Spanish) Master Thesis, UPM. Shamshad, A., Azhari M.N., Isaac, M.H., wan Hussin, W.M.A., Parida, B.P.. (2008). Development of an appropriate procedure for estimation of RUSLE EI30 index and preparation of erosivity maps for Pulau Penang in Peninsular Malaysia. Catena, 72, 423-432. van der Knijff, J.M., Jones, R.J.A., Montanarella, L. (1999). Soil Erosion Risk Assessment Italy Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in Italy. European Commission Soil Bureau Joint Research Centre European Commission. EUR 19022EN.

  6. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  7. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  8. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  9. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  10. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  11. Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-01-01

    Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment. (letter)

  12. The extreme risk of personal data breaches and the erosion of privacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Spencer; Maillart, Thomas; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an extreme risk. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are stored by organisations and on-line, and the attack surface surrounding this data becomes larger and harder to secure. Further, breached information is distributed and accumulates in the hands of cyber criminals, thus driving a cumulative erosion of privacy. Statistical modeling of breach data from 2000 through 2015 provides insights into this risk: A current maximum breach size of about 200 million is detected, and is expected to grow by fifty percent over the next five years. The breach sizes are found to be well modeled by an extremely heavy tailed truncated Pareto distribution, with tail exponent parameter decreasing linearly from 0.57 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2015. With this current model, given a breach contains above fifty thousand items, there is a ten percent probability of exceeding ten million. A size effect is unearthed where both the frequency and severity of breaches scale with organisation size like s0.6. Projections indicate that the total amount of breached information is expected to double from two to four billion items within the next five years, eclipsing the population of users of the Internet. This massive and uncontrolled dissemination of personal identities raises fundamental concerns about privacy.

  13. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  14. Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-24

    for example, the India player felt they had to achieve near-peer military parity with the China and Southwest Asia players before they would invest...the game scenario, we use gender neutral pronouns (e.g., they, their) throughout. 1. David King et al., Climate Change: A Risk Assessment, ed

  15. Social Networks and Workplace Risk: Classroom Scenarios from a U.S. and EU Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Perry; Mansfield, Nancy R.

    2013-01-01

    The explosion of social networks and the growing concern over privacy in the digital age--both in the United States and Europe--have provided an opportunity to introduce students to the legal risks of using social media in the workplace. This article builds on the authors' classroom experiences and provides social media scenarios and projects that…

  16. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  17. Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  19. SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISKS TO WATER EROSION IN THE UPPER OF ARAGUAIA RIVER BASIN (GO/MT, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLIVEIRA, Victoria Christina Vilela

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The soil is a very important natural resource to life in general, especially to human life, because it is the base of its activities. However, in some parts of the word it is not exposed to adequate conservational practices, which result in degradation of the quality and negative impacts on the ecosystems and biodiversity. One of this impacts concerns the water erosion, the most important cause of the accelerated loss of properties on agricultural lands by reduction of fertility, desertification and increase of recent sedimentation in the hydrical channels. The laminar erosion is a common form but no evident signs are visible, except when the roots appear on the cultures and pastures. It is caused by runoff, mainly in the tropics.Some soils have high susceptibility and risks to this form of erosion, frequently the fine sandy soils after deforestation of their original cover and replacement by intensive agricultural an pasturage activities without conservational practices.

  20. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  1. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  2. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  3. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  4. Comparison of the transportation risks for the spent fuel in Korea for different transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jongtae; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W.

    2011-01-01

    According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. At the start of the operation of the final repository (FR), by the year 2065, transport will then take place between the CISF and the FR. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios for a maritime transportation by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. And, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of PWR and PHWR spent fuels by road trailers from the CISF and the FR. From the results of this study, we found that risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of the spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future.

  5. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  6. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  7. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  8. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  9. Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter B in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray

    2013-01-01

    Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes

  10. Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-01-01

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

  11. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  12. The use of edaphic parameters as indicators of soil erosion risk, Rambla of Las Moreras (SE Spain); El uso de parametros edaficos como indicadores de riesgo de erosion. Rambla de Las Moreras, Murcia, Se de Espana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero Diaz, A.; Quinonero Rubio, J. M.; Ortiz Silla, R.; Sanchez Navarro, A.; Fernandez-Delgado Juarez, M.; Gil Vazquez, J. M.

    2009-07-01

    One factor that more involved in the soil erosion soil is erodibility. In this paper we study some parameters (texture, structure, organic material, profundity and vegetal cover in the basin of Rambla de las Moreras (Murcia) with the objective of determining whether any of them can server of erosion risk indicators. the results sampling as the organic matter and the stability of aggregates can be good indicators of this. (Author) 6 refs.

  13. Radiological risk associated with a fire scenario in a radioactive waste deposit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingos, E.N.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, L.A., E-mail: aguiar.lais@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    A fire at the disposal of radioactive waste can result in significant damage, as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The norms of CNEN (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear), CNEN 2.03; CNEN 2.04 and CNEN 8.02 include fire protection regulations and have criteria and requirements that aim to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive and/or toxic mate-rial present in the installations. For decision making due to a fire scenario containing radioactive material, it is fundamental to have information that can allow the estimate of the dose to which the population will be submitted. This work proposes to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system using the BEIR V model, associated with a fire scenario containing radioactive material generated in the Hotspot code. (author)

  14. Comparison of risk-dominant scenario assumptions for several TRU waste facilities in the DOE complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foppe, T.L.; Marx, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    In order to gain a risk management perspective, the DOE Rocky Flats Field Office (RFFO) initiated a survey of other DOE sites regarding risks from potential accidents associated with transuranic (TRU) storage and/or processing facilities. Recently-approved authorization basis documents at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) have been based on the DOE Standard 3011 risk assessment methodology with three qualitative estimates of frequency of occurrence and quantitative estimates of radiological consequences to the collocated worker and the public binned into three severity levels. Risk Class 1 and 2 events after application of controls to prevent or mitigate the accident are designated as risk-dominant scenarios. Accident Evaluation Guidelines for selection of Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs) are based on the frequency and consequence bin assignments to identify controls that can be credited to reduce risk to Risk Class 3 or 4, or that are credited for Risk Class 1 and 2 scenarios that cannot be further reduced. This methodology resulted in several risk-dominant scenarios for either the collocated worker or the public that warranted consideration on whether additional controls should be implemented. RFFO requested the survey because of these high estimates of risks that are primarily due to design characteristics of RFETS TRU waste facilities (i.e., Butler-type buildings without a ventilation and filtration system, and a relatively short distance to the Site boundary). Accident analysis methodologies and key assumptions are being compared for the DOE sites responding to the survey. This includes type of accidents that are risk dominant (e.g., drum explosion, material handling breach, fires, natural phenomena, external events, etc.), source term evaluation (e.g., radionuclide material-at-risk, chemical and physical form, damage ratio, airborne release fraction, respirable fraction, leakpath factors), dispersion analysis (e.g., meteorological

  15. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  16. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  17. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  18. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  19. Economic scenarios for the real estate market: Incorporating uncertainty and risk in real estate appraisals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Lausberg

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Real estate appraisal is usually regarded as both a science and an art: “science” because the appraiser uses mathematical calculations and other objective elements, “art” because he also uses his experience and other subjective elements. This dual character requires—among others—that new insights from other disciplines and current trends are taken into account. The central proposition of the article is that this requirement is not met. The author provides evidence that real estate risk management has made tremendous progress since the mid-1990s which has not found its way into appraisal practice, thereby creating a situation where appraisals by risk analysts differ greatly from appraisals by real estate appraisers. According to the author the gap between real estate appraisal and risk analysis should be closed from both sides. The article begins with an overview of the most important trends which will impact real estate values in the future. From these trends, an exemplary economic scenario for European real estate markets is derived in order to demonstrate that scenario writing is a powerful tool for risk management. After that the author discusses some other methods of risk management and their potential benefits for real estate appraisal.

  20. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  1. Investigation of Local Hydrogen Risk in the RDT Compartment of OPR1000 under SBO Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Nam Kyung; Jeon, Joon Goo; Choi, Won Jun; Song, Kyu Sang; Jeun, Gyoo Dong; Kim, Sung Joong

    2016-01-01

    As TMI-2 and Fukushima accidents revealed, a high concentration of hydrogen in a nuclear power plant (NPP) could cause hydrogen combustion. In order to take follow-up measures, an average and local hydrogen concentration in the NPP containment are regulated below 0.1 using hydrogen mitigation system such as igniter and/or passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR). During a severe accident, some compartments of the NPP containment temporarily may show peaks of the local hydrogen concentration over 0.1 depending on the geometry of the containment structure and hydrogen transportation path. For example, the compartment of a reactor drain tank (RDT) is connected to the pressurizer nozzle and if the relieved pressure drives the significant amount of steam and hydrogen, then substantial peaks of the hydrogen concentration can occur. Before the RPV failure under SBO scenario, the RDT compartment was the main region for hydrogen release due to the RDT break. Therefore, confirming the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment is very important to verify the integrity of the NPP containment. In this study, the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment of OPR1000 under SBO scenario was evaluated using MELCOR 1.8.6 code in terms of the hydrogen volume fraction and the Shapiro diagram. (1) The RDT compartment showed the peaks of the hydrogen volume fraction over 0.1. As a future work, the local hydrogen risk of the compartment of a steam generator (SG) needs to be analyzed under SBLOCA scenario. Because the SG compartment is also a main region of hydrogen release under SBLOCA scenario. In the long run, the analysis for the detailed hydrogen distribution, based on detailed modeling of the whole OPR1000 containment, needs to be performed.

  2. Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

  3. Evaluating of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss tolerance and its effects on erosion risk in the carbonate areas of southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Soil loss tolerance (T value is one of the criteria in determining the necessity of erosion control measures and ecological restoration strategy. However, the validity of this criterion in subtropical karst regions is strongly disputed. In this study, T value is calculated based on soil formation rate by using a digital distribution map of carbonate rock assemblage types. Results indicated a spatial heterogeneity and diversity in soil loss tolerance. Instead of only one criterion, a minimum of three criteria should be considered when investigating the carbonate areas of southern China because the one region, one T value concept may not be applicable to this region. T value is proportionate to the amount of argillaceous material, which determines the surface soil thickness of the formations in homogenous carbonate rock areas. Homogenous carbonate rock, carbonate rock intercalated with clastic rock areas and carbonate/clastic rock alternation areas have T values of 20, 50 and 100 t/(km2 a, and they are extremely, severely and moderately sensitive to soil erosion. Karst rocky desertification (KRD is defined as extreme soil erosion and reflects the risks of erosion. Thus, the relationship between T value and erosion risk is determined using KRD as a parameter. The existence of KRD land is unrelated to the T value, although this parameter indicates erosion sensitivity. Erosion risk is strongly dependent on the relationship between real soil loss (RL and T value rather than on either erosion intensity or the T value itself. If RL > > T, then the erosion risk is high despite of a low RL. Conversely, if T > > RL, then the soil is safe although RL is high. Overall, these findings may clarify the heterogeneity of T value and its effect on erosion risk in a karst environment.

  4. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  5. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  6. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  7. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  8. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  9. Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

  10. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  11. Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California: Chapter F in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma

    2013-01-01

    The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical, yet plausible, tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. In this chapter, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types and other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (for example, organotin or DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or

  12. Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

  13. Separation of dry and wet periods from regular weather station data for the analysis of wind erosion risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naeini, Mohammadali Saremi; Fister, Wolfgang; Heckrath, Goswin Johann

    importance, soil moisture content is often ignored in the analysis of wind data for wind erosion studies. The main reason most probably being the lack of soil moisture sensors in conventional climate stations. Soil moisture at a given point in time is determined by rain (e.g. rainfall amount, duration......), climate (e.g. air temperature, solar radiation, evaporation) and soil (e.g. infiltration rate, adhesion). The purpose of this study is to overcome the lack of soil moisture data for wind erosion risk assessment by developing a method to estimate the soil wetness based on easy available weather data......, such as daily precipitation, hourly/sub hourly ambient air temperature and hourly/sub hourly relative humidity. This new method was used to identify periods of wet and dry soil moisture conditions of a time series from 20 weather stations in Denmark. The length of the time series varied between 8 to 37 years...

  14. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  15. Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

    2018-01-01

    Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

  16. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  17. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps

  18. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  19. Optimal parameter selection for qualitative regional erosion risk monitoring: A remote sensing study of SE Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moncef Bouaziz

    2011-04-01

    Maps derived from this qualitative analysis allow the identification and ranking of erosion intensity. These maps enable us to highlight areas in immediate need of conservation strategies in order to control siltation of the SE Ethiopian reservoir and to control further soil degradation.

  20. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Erosion and erosion-corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isomoto, Yoshinori

    2008-01-01

    It is very difficult to interpret the technical term of erosion-corrosion' which is sometimes encountered in piping systems of power plants, because of complicated mechanisms and several confusing definitions of erosion-corrosion phenomena. 'FAC (flow accelerated corrosion)' is recently introduced as wall thinning of materials in power plant systems, as a representative of 'erosion-corrosion'. FAC is, however, not necessarily well understood and compared with erosion-corrosion. This paper describes firstly the origin, definition and fundamental understandings of erosion and erosion-corrosion, in order to reconsider and reconfirm the phenomena of erosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC. Next, typical mapping of erosion, corrosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC are introduced in flow velocity and environmental corrosiveness axes. The concept of damage rate in erosion-corrosion is finally discussed, connecting dissolution rate, mass transfer of metal ions in a metal oxide film and film growth. (author)

  2. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  3. Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2002-01-01

    Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons.

  4. Estimating soil erosion risk and evaluating erosion control measures for soil conservation planning at Koga watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molla, Tegegne; Sisheber, Biniam

    2017-01-01

    Soil erosion is one of the major factors affecting sustainability of agricultural production in Ethiopia. The objective of this paper is to estimate soil erosion using the universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model and to evaluate soil conservation practices in a data-scarce watershed region. For this purpose, soil data, rainfall, erosion control practices, satellite images and topographic maps were collected to determine the RUSLE factors. In addition, measurements of randomly selected soil and water conservation structures were done at three sub-watersheds (Asanat, Debreyakob and Rim). This study was conducted in Koga watershed at upper part of the Blue Nile basin which is affected by high soil erosion rates. The area is characterized by undulating topography caused by intensive agricultural practices with poor soil conservation practices. The soil loss rates were determined and conservation strategies have been evaluated under different slope classes and land uses. The results showed that the watershed is affected by high soil erosion rates (on average 42 t ha-1 yr-1), greater than the maximum tolerable soil loss (18 t ha-1 yr-1). The highest soil loss (456 t ha-1 yr-1) estimated from the upper watershed occurred on cultivated lands of steep slopes. As a result, soil erosion is mainly aggravated by land-use conflicts and topographic factors and the rugged topographic land forms of the area. The study also demonstrated that the contribution of existing soil conservation structures to erosion control is very small due to incorrect design and poor management. About 35 % out of the existing structures can reduce soil loss significantly since they were constructed correctly. Most of the existing structures were demolished due to the sediment overload, vulnerability to livestock damage and intense rainfall. Therefore, appropriate and standardized soil and water conservation measures for different erosion-prone land uses and land forms need to be implemented in Koga

  5. Quantification and site-specification of the support practice factor when mapping soil erosion risk associated with olive plantations in the Mediterranean island of Crete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karydas, Christos G; Sekuloska, Tijana; Silleos, Georgios N

    2009-02-01

    Due to inappropriate agricultural management practices, soil erosion is becoming one of the most dangerous forms of soil degradation in many olive farming areas in the Mediterranean region, leading to significant decrease of soil fertility and yield. In order to prevent further soil degradation, proper measures are necessary to be locally implemented. In this perspective, an increase in the spatial accuracy of remote sensing datasets and advanced image analysis are significant tools necessary and efficient for mapping soil erosion risk on a fine scale. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was implemented in the spatial domain using GIS, while a very high resolution satellite image, namely a QuickBird image, was used for deriving cover management (C) and support practice (P) factors, in order to map the risk of soil erosion in Kolymvari, a typical olive farming area in the island of Crete, Greece. The results comprised a risk map of soil erosion when P factor was taken uniform (conventional approach) and a risk map when P factor was quantified site-specifically using object-oriented image analysis. The results showed that the QuickBird image was necessary in order to achieve site-specificity of the P factor and therefore to support fine scale mapping of soil erosion risk in an olive cultivation area, such as the one of Kolymvari in Crete. Increasing the accuracy of the QB image classification will further improve the resulted soil erosion mapping.

  6. Monitoring and Risk Identification Caused by High Water, Floods and Erosion Processes in Urban Part of Sava Riverbed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oskoruš, D.; Miković, N.; Ljevar, I.

    2012-04-01

    Riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in the upper stream of Sava River. The increasing gradient of those changes is interconnected with the level of human influence in the river basin and riverbed as well. In time period of last forty years the consequences of riverbed erosion are become serious as well as dangerous and they threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. The increasing value of flow velocity in riverbed in urban part of river section during high water level, mud and debris flow during the floods as well, is especially dangerous for old bridges. This paper contains result of velocity measurements during high waters taken by Hydrological Service of Republic Croatia, load transport monitoring during such events and cross sections in some vulnerable location. In this paper is given one example of Jakuševac railway bridge in Zagreb, heavily destroyed during high water event on the 30 March 2009., recently reconstructed by "Croatian Railways" company. Keywords: Riverbed erosion, flow velocity, mud and debris flow, risk identification, stability of bridges

  7. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  8. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  9. Women's Drinking Decisions in Heterosocial Situations: Development and Validation of Scenarios to Assess Influence of Attraction and Risk-Awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Nora E; Ogle, Richard L; Maisto, Stephen A; Jackson, Lee A; Loomis, Randi B; Heaton, Jennifer A

    2016-07-01

    These three related studies created a set of ecologically valid scenarios for assessing relative associations of both attraction and sexual coercion risk-recognition in college women's heterosocial situational drinking decisions. The first study constructed nine scenarios using input from heterosexual drinking women in the age cohort (18-30) most likely to experience alcohol-related sexual coercion. In the second study, 50 female undergraduates (ages 18-25) assessed the salience of three important dimensions (attraction, risk, and realism) in these scenarios. The third study was a factor analysis (and a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis) of the elements of coercion-risk as perceived by the target group with two female samples recruited 1 year apart (Sample 1: N = 157, ages 18-29); Sample 2: N = 157, ages 18-30). Results confirmed that the scenarios could be a useful vehicle for assessing how women balance out risk and attraction to make in-the moment heterosocial drinking decisions. The factor analysis showed participants perceived two types of situations, based on whether the male character was "Familiar" or "Just Met" and perceived themselves as happier and more excited with Familiar males. However, in contrast to HIV risk studies, Familiar males were perceived as higher risk for unwanted sex. Future research will use the six scenarios that emerged from the factor analysis to study how attraction and risk perception differentially affect young adult women's social drinking decisions.

  10. A near real time scenario at regional scale for the hydrogeological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Zauri, R.; Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Moramarco, T.; Salciarini, D.; Tamagnini, C.

    2012-04-01

    The early warning systems dedicated to landslides and floods represent the Umbria Region Civil Protection Service new generation tools for hydraulic and hydrogeological risk reduction. Following past analyses performed by the Functional Centre (part of the civil protection service dedicated to the monitoring and the evaluation of natural hazards) on the relationship between saturated soil conditions and rainfall thresholds, we have developed an automated early warning system for the landslide risk, called LANDWARN, which generates daily and 72h forecast risk matrix with a dense mesh of 100 x 100m, throughout the region. The system is based on: (a) the 20 days -observed and 72h -predicted rainfall, provided by the local meteorological network and the Local scale Meteorological Model COSMO ME, (b) the assessment of the saturation of soils by: daily extraction of ASCAT satellite data, data from a network of 16 TDR sensors, and a water balance model (developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, CNR, Perugia, Italy) that allows for the prediction of a saturation index for each point of the analysis grid up to a window of 72 h, (c) a Web-GIS platform that combines the data grids of calculated hazard indicators with layers of landslide susceptibility and vulnerability of the territory, in order to produce dynamic risk scenarios. The system is still under development and it's implemented at different scales: the entire region, and a set of known high-risk landslides in Umbria. The system is monitored and regularly reviewed through the back analysis of landslide reports for which the activation date is available. Up to now, the development of the system involves: a) the improvement of the reliability assessment of the condition of soil saturation, a key parameter which is used to dynamically adjust the values of rainfall thresholds used for the declaration of levels of landslide hazard. For this purpose, a procedure was created for the ASCAT

  11. The risk of recurrent thromboembolic disorders in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism: new scenarios and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prandoni, Paolo; Barbar, Sofia; Milan, Marta; Vedovetto, Valentina; Pesavento, Raffaele

    2014-01-01

    The risk of recurrent thromboembolic disorders in the 10-year period following an episode of unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) ranges between 30 and 50%, the rate being higher in patients with primary deep venous thrombosis (DVT) than in those with primary pulmonary embolism (PE). The clinical presentation with primary PE increases by more than three times the risk of a new PE episode over that with isolated DVT. Baseline parameters that increase this risk are the proximal location of DVT, obesity, old age and male sex, whereas the role of thrombophilia is controversial. An increasing role is played by post-baseline parameters such as the ultrasound assessment of residual vein thrombosis and the determination of D-dimer. While the latest international guidelines suggest indefinite anticoagulation for most patients with the first episode of unprovoked VTE, new scenarios are being offered by the identification of risk stratification models and by strategies that have the potential to help identify patients in whom anticoagulation can be safely discontinued, such as those that incorporate the assessment of D-dimer and residual vein thrombosis. New opportunities are being offered by low-dose aspirin, which has recently been reported to decrease by more than 30% the risk of recurrent events without increasing the bleeding risk; and especially by a few emerging anti-Xa and anti-IIa oral compounds, which are likely to induce fewer haemorrhagic complications than vitamin K antagonists while preserving at least the same effectiveness, do not require laboratory monitoring, and can be used immediately after the thrombotic episode. © 2013.

  12. Alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium in Japanese men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goto Ayumu

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence regarding the association between alcohol consumption and the gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD spectrum has been conflicting. We examined the association between alcohol consumption and erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium in Japanese men. Methods The study population comprised 463 men subjects who had undergone an upper endoscopy at the Gastroenterology Division of Yokohama City University Hospital between August 2005 and July 2006. The presence of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium was diagnosed based on the Los Angeles Classification and the Prague C and M Criteria, respectively. We divided the study population into four groups: never drinkers, light drinkers (less than 25.0 g of ethanol per day, moderate drinkers (25.0 to 50.0 g of ethanol per day, and heavy drinkers (more than 50.0 g of ethanol per day. A linear regression of the logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the dose-response trends. Results Compared with never drinkers, light drinkers (less than 25.0 g ethanol per day, moderate drinkers (25.0 to 50.0 g per day, and heavy drinkers (more than 50.0 g per day had ORs for erosive esophagitis of 1.110 (95% CI: 0.553 – 2.228, p = 0.7688, 1.880 (95% CI: 1.015 – 3.484, p = 0.0445 and 1.988 (95% CI: 1.120 – 3.534, p = 0.0190, respectively. These groups had ORs for Barrett's epithelium of 1.278 (95% CI: 0.752 – 2.170, p = 0.3643, 1.458 (95% CI: 0.873 – 2.433, p = 0.1500, and 1.912 (95% CI: 1.185 – 3.086, p = 0.0079, respectively. The odds ratios/grams (alcohol/day of dose response trends for erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium were 1.015 (95% CI: 1.004–1.026, p = 0.0066 and 1.012 (95% CI: 1.003–1.021, p = 0.0079, respectively. Conclusion These findings suggest that alcohol consumption in Japanese men tends to be associated with an increased risk of erosive esophagitis and Barrett's epithelium.

  13. A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

  14. Potential Impact of Climate Changes on the Inundation Risk Levels in a Dam Break Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudha Yerramilli

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of the study is to generate information for an enhanced land use planning with respect to flood hazards. The study assesses the potential impact of climate change by simulating a dam break scenario in a high intensity rainfall event and evaluates the vulnerability risk in the downstream region by integrating ArcGIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS technologies. In the past century, the evidence of climate changes are observed in terms of increase in high intensity rainfall events. These events are of high concern, as increased inflow rates may increase the probability of a dam failure, leading to higher magnitude flooding events involving multiple consequences. The 100 year historical rainfall data for the central Mississippi region reveals an increased trend in the intensity of rainfall rates after the 1970s. With more than 10% of high hazard dams in the central region, the damage can be far accumulative. The study determines occurrence of the high intensity rainfall event in the past 100 years for central Mississippi and simulates a Ross Barnett Reservoir dam break scenario and evaluates the vulnerability risks due to inundation in the immediate downstream region, which happens to be the State Capital. The results indicate that the inundation due to a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under high intensity rainfall event is comparable to a catastrophic flood event experienced by the region in 1979, which almost equals a 200-year flood magnitude. The results indicate that the extent and depth of flood waters poses a significant destructive threat to the state capital, inundating various infrastructural and transportation networks.

  15. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  16. Risk Management in the AIDS Scenario: Strategies Adopted by Men Who Have Sex with Men in Casual Partnerships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Moraes De Luiz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this study was on risk management strategies used in the aids scenario. For this purpose the chosen scenario was the sexual practices of men who have sex with other men in casual partnerships. Theoretically, the study was based on the notion of risky life styles in its interface with the health promotion framework. By means of a snowball strategy we located ten men who agreed to be interviewed. These interviews were analyzed using discourse analysis techniques. The results suggest that in all cases information about risk for infection by HIV/STD derived from a diversity of sources were used as repertoires for making sense of risks. The analysis led us to propose that information serves as a safety belt that allows risk taking within a certain margin of safety, even though within a scenario of uncertainty.

  17. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  18. Terraced landscape: from an old best practice to a rising land abandoned-related soil erosion risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarolli, Paolo; Preti, Federico; Romano, Nunzio

    2013-04-01

    Among the most evident landscape signatures of human fingerprint during the Holocene, the terraces related to agricultural activities deserve a great importance. Landscape terracing probably represents one of the oldest best practice primarily for crop production, but also for mitigating soil erosion and stabilizing hillslopes in landforms dominated by steep slopes. This technique is widely used in various parts of the world even under different environmental conditions. In some zones, terraced landscapes, because of their history and locations, can also be considered a historical heritage and a sort of "cultural landscape" to preserve, an absolutely value for tourism. To preserve their original role of soil erosion prevention, terraces should be properly designed built according to specific and sustainable engineering rules. Then, their maintenance is the most critical issue to deal with. It is well known from literature that terraced landscapes subject to abandonment would result in an increasing of terrace failure and related land degradation. If not maintained, a progressively increasing of gully erosion affects the structure of the walls. The results of this process is the increasing of connectivity and runoff. During the last few years and partly because of changing in the society perspective and migration toward metropolitan areas, some Countries have been affected by a serious and wider land abandonment with an increasing of soil erosion and derived landslide risk. Italy is one example. In this work, we consider three typical case studies of a terraced landscape where the lack of maintenance characterizing the last few years, increased the landslide risk with several problems to the population. The first case study is located along the renowed "Amalfi Coast" (a portion of land located near Salerno, southern Italy), the second is placed in the north of Toscana (a region located in Central Italy), and the third one along the so-called "Cinque Terre" (a region

  19. Assessing the multidimensionality of coastal erosion risks: public participation and multicriteria analysis in a Mediterranean coastal system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roca, Elisabet; Gamboa, Gonzalo; Tàbara, J David

    2008-04-01

    The complex and multidimensional nature of coastal erosion risks makes it necessary to move away from single-perspective assessment and management methods that have conventionally predominated in coastal management. This article explores the suitability of participatory multicriteria analysis (MCA) for improving the integration of diverse expertises and values and enhancing the social-ecological robustness of the processes that lead to the definition of relevant policy options to deal with those risks. We test this approach in the Mediterranean coastal locality of Lido de Sète in France. Results show that the more adaptive alternatives such as "retreating the shoreline" were preferred by our selected stakeholders to those corresponding to "protecting the shoreline" and the business as usual proposals traditionally put forward by experts and policymakers on these matters. Participative MCA contributed to represent coastal multidimensionality, elicit and integrate different views and preferences, facilitated knowledge exchange, and allowed highlighting existing uncertainties.

  20. Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

    2015-09-01

    This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

  1. Spatio-temporal assessment of soil erosion risk in different agricultural zones of the Inle Lake region, southern Shan State, Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Htwe, Thin Nwe; Brinkmann, Katja; Buerkert, Andreas

    2015-10-01

    Myanmar is one of Southeast Asia's climatically most diverse countries, where sheet, rill, and gully erosion affect crop yields and subsequently livelihood strategies of many people. In the unique wetland ecosystem of Inle Lake, soil erosion in surrounding uplands lead to sedimentation and pollution of the water body. The current study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to identify soil erosion risks of the Inle Lake region in space and time and to assess the relationship between soil erosion and degradation for different agricultural zones and cropping systems. Altogether, 85% of soil losses occurred on barren land along the steep slopes. The hotspot of soil erosion risk is situated in the western uplands characterized by unsustainable land use practices combined with a steep topography. The estimated average soil losses amounted to 19.9, 10.1, and 26.2 t ha(-1) yr(-1) in 1989, 2000, and 2009, respectively. These fluctuations were mainly the results of changes in precipitation and land cover (deforestation (-19%) and expansion of annual cropland (+35%) from 1989 to 2009). Most farmers in the study area have not yet adopted effective soil protection measures to mitigate the effects of soil erosion such as land degradation and water pollution of the lake reservoir. This urgently needs to be addressed by policy makers and extension services.

  2. Relationships between soil erosion risk, soil use and soil properties in Mediterranean areas. A comparative study of three typical sceneries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Juan; Priego-Navas, Mercedes; Zavala, Lorena M.; Jordán, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Generally, literature shows that the high variability of rainfall-induced soil erosion is related to climatic differences, relief, soil properties and land use. Very different runoff rates and soil loss values have been reported in Mediterranean cropped soils depending on soil management practices, but also in soils under natural vegetation types. OBJECTIVES The aim of this research is to study the relationships between soil erosion risk, soil use and soil properties in three typical Mediterranean areas from southern Spain: olive groves under conventional tillage, minimum tillage and no-till practices, and soils under natural vegetation. METHODS Rainfall simulation experiments have been carried out in order to assess the relationship between soil erosion risk, land use, soil management and soil properties in olive-cropped soils under different types of management and soils under natural vegetation type from Mediterranean areas in southern Spain RESULTS Results show that mean runoff rates decrease from 35% in olive grove soils under conventional tillage to 25% in olive (Olea europaea) grove soils with minimum tillage or no-till practices, and slightly over 22% in soils under natural vegetation. Moreover, considering the different vegetation types, runoff rates vary in a wide range, although runoff rates from soils under holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia), 25.70%, and marginal olive groves , 25.31%, are not significantly different. Results from soils under natural vegetation show that the properties and nature of the organic residues play a role in runoff characteristics, as runoff rates above 50% were observed in less than 10% of the rainfall simulations performed on soils with a organic layer. In contrast, more than half of runoff rates from bare soils reached or surpassed 50%. Quantitatively, average values for runoff water losses increase up to 2.5 times in unprotected soils. This is a key issue in the study area, where mean annual rainfall is above 600 mm

  3. The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management—Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon J. van Ruiten

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from flood protection to flood risk management in Europe. It implies two major governance challenges: the spatial turn and the scenario approach. This contribution studies the implementation of these two governance challenges in the Netherlands, where the paradigm shift is considered to be advanced. Therefore, the spatial turn and the scenario approach are operationalized. The spatial turn consists of three aspects: space for the river, an integrated approach, and beyond structural measures. The scenario approach introduces the vulnerability of society in flood risk management. It is discussed how the challenges of spatial turn and the scenario approach—and thus the shift towards flood risk management—have an effect on the prevailing modes of governance in water management in the Netherlands. This helps understand the tensions and frictions with implementing the plans, but also illustrates how the European Floods Directive institutionalizes the shift towards flood risk management. The analytical scheme, consists mainly of operationalization, can foster future comparative studies with other countries and over time, to trace the changes in approaches to flood risks in Europe.

  4. Cesium-137, a tool for the assessment and the management of erosion risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, C.; Mabit, L.; Laverdière, M.R.; Wicherek, S.

    1998-01-01

    Cesium-137 (137Cs) is a radioisotope that was artificially introduced in the environment through the extensive high-atmosphere bomb tests that took place in the 1950s and 1960s. Due to its environmental behavior in soils, this isotope is a particularly interesting soil movement indicator. Its spatial redistribution reveals global soil movements that were initiated some 35 years ago. The rates and spatial extent of soil loss and deposition areas can be established, and thus soil movement budgets are easily estimated, at scales ranging from small plots to watersheds. Generally, soil movements are estimated by comparing the activity of 137Cs (expressed in Bq.m-2) of cultivated soils to that of so-called reference sites (old prairie or forest soils) assumed to be uneroded. Different models to translate soil 137Cs variations into soil movements have been suggested over the years (equations 3 to 5). The authors used this technique in Quebec and France. The sampling of 63 cultivated fields near Quebec City, led to an average soil loss estimate of nearly 6 Mg.ha-1.yr-1. The erosion rates varied according the land use and slope steepness (Table 2). The results of this study also suggest that redeposition is an important component of the overall erosive process, particularly under low grade slopes and protective plant cover conditions. From 137Cs measurements obtained on a 180 ha unit watershed near Vierzy (France), it was estimated that 45% and 14% of the watershed area had experienced a net soil loss and gain respectively (Figure 4). The net sediment output was evaluated at less than 1.9 Mg.ha-1.yr-1. In a still on-going study, 137Cs is used to shed some light on the origins of the sedimentation problem impairing the waters of Boyer River (Québec). Soils from cultivated fields, stream bank soils and sediments from the river bed are counted for 137Cs. It was estimated that 78% of the counted bottom sediments originated from cultivated fields, while the other 22% was from

  5. A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

  6. Erosion risk analysis by GIS in environmental impact assessments: a case study--Seyhan Köprü Dam construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, S; Kurum, E

    2002-11-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a systematically constructed procedure whereby environmental impacts caused by proposed projects are examined. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are crucially efficient tools for impact assessment and their use is likely to dramatically increase in the near future. GIS have been applied to a wide range of different impact assessment projects and dams among them have been taken as the case work in this article. EIA Regulation in force in Turkey requires the analysis of steering natural processes that can be adversely affected by the proposed project, particularly in the section of the analysis of the areas with higher landscape value. At this point, the true potential value of GIS lies in its ability to analyze spatial data with accuracy. This study is an attempt to analyze by GIS the areas with higher landscape value in the impact assessment of dam constructions in the case of Seyhan-Köprü Hydroelectric Dam project proposal. A method needs to be defined before the overlapping step by GIS to analyze the areas with higher landscape value. In the case of Seyhan-Köprü Hydroelectric Dam project proposal of the present work, considering the geological conditions and the steep slopes of the area and the type of the project, the most important natural process is erosion. Therefore, the areas of higher erosion risk were considered as the Areas with Higher Landscape Value from the conservation demands points of view.

  7. The prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Ping

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental erosion has been investigated in developed and developing countries and the prevalence varies considerably in different countries, geographic locations, and age groups. With the lifestyle of the Chinese people changing significantly over the decades, dental erosion has begun to receive more attention. However, the information about dental erosion in China is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Guangzhou, Southern China. Methods This cross-sectional survey was performed by two trained, calibrated examiners. A stratified random sample of 12-13-year-old children (774 boys and 725 girls from 10 schools was examined for dental erosion using the diagnostic criteria of Eccles and the index of O'Sullivan was applied to record the distribution, severity, and amount of the lesions. Data on the socio-economic status, health behaviours, and general health involved in the etiology of dental erosion were obtained from a self-completed questionnaire. The analyses were performed using SPSS software. Results At least one tooth surface with signs of erosion was found in 416 children (27.3%. The most frequently affected teeth were the central incisors (upper central incisors, 16.3% and 15.9%; lower central incisors, 17.4% and 14.8%. The most frequently affected surface was the incisal or occlusal edge (43.2%. The loss of enamel contour was present in 54.6% of the tooth surfaces with erosion. Of the affected tooth surfaces, 69.3% had greater than one-half of the tooth surface was affected. The results from logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the children who were female, consumed carbonated drinks once a week or more, and those whose mothers were educated to the primary level tended to have more dental erosion. Conclusions Dental erosion in 12-13-year-old Chinese school children is becoming a significant problem. A

  8. The prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ping; Lin, Huan Cai; Chen, Jian Hong; Liang, Huan You

    2010-08-12

    Dental erosion has been investigated in developed and developing countries and the prevalence varies considerably in different countries, geographic locations, and age groups. With the lifestyle of the Chinese people changing significantly over the decades, dental erosion has begun to receive more attention. However, the information about dental erosion in China is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence of dental erosion and associated risk factors in 12-13-year-old school children in Guangzhou, Southern China. This cross-sectional survey was performed by two trained, calibrated examiners. A stratified random sample of 12-13-year-old children (774 boys and 725 girls) from 10 schools was examined for dental erosion using the diagnostic criteria of Eccles and the index of O'Sullivan was applied to record the distribution, severity, and amount of the lesions. Data on the socio-economic status, health behaviours, and general health involved in the etiology of dental erosion were obtained from a self-completed questionnaire. The analyses were performed using SPSS software. At least one tooth surface with signs of erosion was found in 416 children (27.3%). The most frequently affected teeth were the central incisors (upper central incisors, 16.3% and 15.9%; lower central incisors, 17.4% and 14.8%). The most frequently affected surface was the incisal or occlusal edge (43.2%). The loss of enamel contour was present in 54.6% of the tooth surfaces with erosion. Of the affected tooth surfaces, 69.3% had greater than one-half of the tooth surface was affected. The results from logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the children who were female, consumed carbonated drinks once a week or more, and those whose mothers were educated to the primary level tended to have more dental erosion. Dental erosion in 12-13-year-old Chinese school children is becoming a significant problem. A strategy of offering preventive care, including more campaigns

  9. Comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: Case study of the Upper Blue Nile River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Poesen, Jean; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Nyssen, Jan; Adgo, Enyew

    2017-01-01

    In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5tha -1 yr -1 and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr -1 , of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30tha -1 yr -1 ) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15tha -1 yr -1 ), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region. Copyright © 2016 Office national des forêts. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  11. Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

  12. [Distribution characteristics and erosion risk of nitrogen and phosphorus in soils of Zhuangmu town in Lake Wabuhu basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ru-Zhong; Zou, Yang; Xu, Jing-Jing; Ding, Gui-Zhen

    2014-03-01

    To understand the loss risk of soil erosion in the Zhuangmu town in Lake Wabuhu watershed, concentration and spatial distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus in 162 surface soil samples collected from the farmlands in ten administrative villages of the town were investigated. The risk assessment was conducted by using the nitrogen and phosphorus index method after speciation analysis of soil nitrogen and phosphorus. Based on ArcGIS technology, the spatial interpolation of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and bioavailable nitrogen and phosphorus contents as well as nitrogen and phosphorus index values were performed by means of Kriging interpolation. The results show that, generally, average contents of TN and TP were obtained at 1.67 g x kg(-1) and 0.71 g x kg(-1), respectively. And the mean concentration of bioavailable nitrogen and phosphorus were estimated at 0.26 g x kg(-1) and 0.33 g x kg(-1), accounting for 14.93% and 47.30% of TN and TP contents, respectively. Spatially, the samples with high concentration of TN were mostly from Houji, Yangwan and Liuqian villages, whereas the samples sites with higher contents of TP located in Houji, Yangwan and Zaolin villages. The mean values of nitrogen index (NI) and phosphorus index (PI) for the whole town are 2.11 and 2.13, respectively. According to the numeric size of NI and PI, ten villages ranged in the order of Yangwan > Zhuangmu > Xueqiao > Liuqian > Lizhuang > Jinqiao > Zaolin > Zhangwei > Houji > Xugang village. In general, the soil nitrogen loss is dominated by low and medium risks in the Zhuangmu town, and high risk sporadically appears in local area of the Yangwan village. Like the nitrogen, soil phosphorus loss risk also gives priority to low, and above medium risk concentrates in the Yangwan village as well.

  13. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    recently coupled with quantitative rainfall and temperature forecasts (given by the COSMO ME local scale models for Umbria) to extend the prediction up to 72 hours forecast. The main output is constituted by four spatially distributed early warning indicators (normal, caution, warning, alarm), in compliance with national and regional law, based on the comparison between the observed (forecasted) rainfall and the dynamic thresholds. The early warning indicators, calculated over the whole regional territory, are combined with susceptibility and vulnerability layers using a WEB-GIS platform, in order to build a near real time risk scenario. The main outcome of the system is a spatially distributed landslide hazard map with the highlight of areas where local risk situations may arise due to landslides induced by the interaction between meteorological forcing and the presence of vulnerability elements. The System is inclusive of specific sections dedicated to areas with specific risks (as debris flows prone areas), with specific thresholds. The main purpose of this study is firstly to describe the operational early warning system. Then, the integration of near real-time soil moisture data obtained through the satellite sensor ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) within the system is shown. This could allow enhancing the reliability of the modelled soil moisture data over the regional territory. The recent rainfall event of 11-14 November 2012 is used as case study. Reported triggered landslides are studied and used in order to check/refine the early warning system.

  14. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  15. Wind erosion risk in the southwest of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, and its relationship to the productivity index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silenzi, Juan C.; Echeverría, Nora E.; Vallejos, Adrián G.; Bouza, Mariana E.; De Lucia, Martín P.

    2012-01-01

    Wind erosion risk (WER) for soils of each municipality in the southwest (SW) of Buenos Aires Province (10,491,172 ha) was determined using the wind erosion equation (WEQ) model. WER results from multiplying the soil erodibility index (" I") of the soil by the climatic factor ( C). WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) of each municipality was: Bahía Blanca: 22.4, Coronel Dorrego: 18.6, Coronel Pringles: 4.5, Coronel Rosales: 48.2, Coronel Suárez: 4.5, Guaminí: 3.0, Patagones: 104.6, Puan: 12.2, Saavedra: 3.0, Tornquist: 6.8, and Villarino: 31.7. The maximum weighted average of " I" (Mg ha -1 year -1) corresponded to Coronel Rosales (87.6), Patagones (87.2), Villarino (85.7), Puan (67.9); Guaminí (59.6), Coronel Dorrego (53.1), and Bahía Blanca (39.3); the remaining municipalities ranged between 34.9 and 32.1 Mg ha -1 year -1. The highest C (%) corresponded to Patagones (120), Bahía Blanca (57), Coronel Rosales (55), Villarino (37), Coronel Dorrego (35), Tornquist (21), and Puan (18); for the remaining municipalities it was 14%. The productivity index (PI) is known to establish a numerical value of the productive capacity of lands. The relationship between WER and PI, weighted averages, in all the studied municipalities was fitted by means of a linear model, WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) = 95.23 - 2.09 * PI (%) ( R2 = 66%), and a second-order polynomial model, WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) = 139.41 - 5.86 * PI (%) + 0.07 * PI 2 (%) ( R2 = 74%). No statistically significant relationship was found between WER and PI for each municipality.

  16. CyberCIEGE Scenario Illustrating Integrity Risks to a Military-Like Facility

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fielk, Klaus

    2004-01-01

    .... This thesis asked if a Scenario Definition File (SDF) for the CyberCIEGE game could be developed to educate and train players in Information Assurance on matters related to information integrity in a networking environment...

  17. Erosive gastritis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammed, S.H.; Conrad, C.; Kjoergaad, J.

    1982-01-01

    Erosive gastritis is a well-defined radiologic and endoscopic entity. It is one of the common causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, yet it is seldom diagnosed and often confused with a number of other diseases. This communication re-emphasizes the characteristic endoscopic and radiologic features of erosive gastritis and its differential diagnosis. Two representative cases are reported. (orig.)

  18. Erosive gastritis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammed, S.H.; Conrad, C.; Kjoergaad, J.

    1982-08-01

    Erosive gastritis is a well-defined radiologic and endoscopic entity. It is one of the common causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, yet it is seldom diagnosed and often confused with a number of other diseases. This communication re-emphasizes the characteristic endoscopic and radiologic features of erosive gastritis and its differential diagnosis. Two representative cases are reported.

  19. Utility of combined high-resolution bone SPECT and MRI for the identification of rheumatoid arthritis patients with high-risk for erosive progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchbender, Christian, E-mail: christian.buchbender@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Sewerin, Philipp, E-mail: philipp.sewerin@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Mattes-György, Katalin, E-mail: katalin.mattes@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Miese, Falk, E-mail: falk.miese@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Wittsack, Hans-Joerg, E-mail: hans-joerg.wittsack@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Specker, Christof, E-mail: c.specker@kliniken-essen-sued.de [Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Kliniken Essen-Sud, Propsteistrasse 2, D-45239 Essen (Germany); Antoch, Gerald, E-mail: antoch@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Müller, Hans-Wilhelm, E-mail: HansW.Mueller@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Schneider, Matthias, E-mail: matthias.schneider@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Scherer, Axel, E-mail: scherer@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany); Ostendorf, Benedikt, E-mail: ostendorf@med.uni-duesseldorf.de [Univ Dusseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Rheumatology, Moorenstr. 5, D-40225 Dusseldorf (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    Objectives: To evaluate the utility of sequentially acquired, post hoc fused, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and multi-pinhole single photon emission computed tomography (MPH-SPECT) with technetium-99m-labeled disphosphonates (Tc99m-DPD) for the identification of finger joints with later erosive progression in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) patients. Methods: Ten consecutive ERA patients prospectively underwent MPH-SPECT and MRI of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints prior to and after 6 months methotrexate therapy. Tc99m-DPD uptake was measured at proximal and distal MCP sites using regional analysis. The course of joint pathologies was scored according to the Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Score (RAMRIS) criteria. Results: The frequency of increased Tc99m-DPD uptake, synovitis and bone marrow edemadecreased under MTX therapy; but the number of bone erosions increased. Joints with progressive and new erosions on follow-up had a higher baseline Tc99m-DPD uptake (2.64 ± 1.23 vs. 1.43 ± 0.91) (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Joints with erosive progression are characterized by an early increased Tc99m-DPD uptake, even in absence of MRI bone pathologies. Tc99m-DPD MPH-SPECT might thus be of additional value to morphological MRI for the identification of RA patients with a high risk for erosive progression.

  20. Old age and male sex are associated with increased risk of asymptomatic erosive esophagitis: analysis of data from local health examinations by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Jae Hee; Kim, Hee Man; Ko, Geun Jun; Woo, Myoung Lyeol; Moon, Chang Mo; Kim, Yu Jin; Han, Ki Jun; Song, Si Young; Cho, Hyeon Geun

    2011-06-01

    Silent gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is often detected during routine screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). However, the risk factors and clinical implications of silent GERD remain unclear. In the present study, we investigated the risk factors for asymptomatic erosive esophagitis by analyzing the local area health examination data. The Korean National Health Insurance Corporation provides a bi-annual health examination performed by qualified local hospitals for the early detection of cancer in medical insurance holders over 40 years of age. Participants who completed self-reported questionnaires on health, followed by EGD at the Myongji Hospital (Goyang, Korea), were enrolled in this study. The data of a total of 5301 participants who underwent EGD between January 2005 and December 2008 were analyzed. The prevalence of erosive esophagitis was 6%. In the multivariate analysis, erosive esophagitis was strongly associated with an age greater than 60 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6-1.0), male sex (OR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.7-3.0), hiatus hernia (OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 2.1-4.0), duodenal ulcer (OR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.5), hypertension (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0), and smoking (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8). Of the 320 participants with erosive esophagitis, 145 (45.3%) were asymptomatic participants, and those who were more frequently greater than 60 years (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.1) and male (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.2). Asymptomatic erosive esophagitis in adults older than 40 years is strongly associated with old age (≥ 60 years) and male sex compared with symptomatic erosive esophagitis. © 2011 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  1. Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple

  2. Investigation of UK Farmer Go/No-Go Decisions in Response to Tractor-Based Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Amy; Poots, Jill

    2018-01-01

    Tractors are a source of injury and fatality in agriculture. Despite this farmers continue to engage in risk-taking behaviors, including operating tractors without appropriate equipment. In order to change behaviors and attitudes toward safety, it is important to understand how farmers approach different types of risk relevant to tractor use. The current study used a qualitative approach to investigate farmer perception of four types of tractor-based risk related to self, equipment, lack of safety features, and environment. A sample of 148 farmers from the United Kingdom and Ireland was recruited from farming forums to take part in an online scenario-based qualitative study. Participants were presented with 12 tractor-based scenarios, three from each category of risk, and asked to indicate if they would proceed to use the tractor (go) or not (no-go), then report their reasoning. Thematic analysis was used to identify data patterns. Farmers appeared to assess the consequences of risk in broader terms than the risk of injury to themselves; they also evaluated risk in terms of potential costs (e.g., repair bill) and losses (e.g., delay). Analysis indicated that financial risk was considered with more caution than personal risk in many cases. Farmers also considered usability, such as the functionality of tractor seat belts, indicating the importance of ensuring all safety equipment is fit for purpose. The management of agricultural risk should consider farmer priorities (such as financial costs) in order to develop effective messaging that focuses on those priorities, with the aim of reducing risk-taking behaviors.

  3. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2013-01-01

    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  4. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  5. Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de; Aguiar, Laís Alencar de

    2017-01-01

    A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

  6. Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zrlima@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, Laís Alencar de, E-mail: laguiars@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

  7. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  8. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  9. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  10. Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

    2016-12-01

    Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

  11. Patient Perceptions of Breast Cancer Risk in Imaging-Detected Low-Risk Scenarios and Thresholds for Desired Intervention: A Multi-Institution Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Lars J; Shelby, Rebecca A; Knippa, Emily E; Langman, Eun L; Miller, Lauren S; Whiteside, Beth E; Soo, Mary Scott C

    2018-06-01

    To determine women's perceptions of breast cancer risk and thresholds for desiring biopsy when considering BI-RADS 3 and 4A scenarios and recommendations, respectively. Women presenting for screening mammography from five geographically diverse medical centers were surveyed. Demographic information and baseline anxiety were queried. Participants were presented with scenarios of short-term imaging follow-up recommendations (ie, BI-RADS 3) and biopsy recommendations (ie, BI-RADS 4A) for low-risk mammographic abnormalities and asked to estimate their breast cancer risk for each scenario. Participants reported the threshold (ie, likelihood of cancer) where they would feel comfortable undergoing short-term imaging follow-up and biopsy and their anticipated regret for choosing short-term follow-up versus biopsy. Analysis of 2,747 surveys showed that participants estimated breast cancer risk of 32.8% for a BI-RADS 3 and 41.1% for a BI-RADS 4A scenarios are significantly greater rates than clinically established rates (<2% [P < .001] and 2%-10% [P < .001], respectively). Over one-half (55.4%) of participants reported they would never want imaging follow-up if there was any chance of cancer; two-thirds (66.2%) reported they would desire biopsy if there was any chance of cancer. Participants reported greater anticipated regret (P < .001) and less relief and confidence (P < .001) with the decision to undergo follow-up imaging versus biopsy. Women overestimate breast cancer risk associated with both BI-RADS 3 and 4A scenarios and desire very low biopsy thresholds. Greater anticipated regret and less relief and confidence was reported with the choice to undergo short-term imaging follow-up compared with biopsy. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The Role of Stress-test Scenarios in Risk Management Activities and in the Avoidance of a New Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arion NEGRILĂ

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Stress-tests can increase the endurance of banks and financial system when faced with crises especially during economic growth periods, when they may accept higher risks more easily and with lower prices. Their importance was revealed by the crisis which has proven to be much more severe in terms of amplitude than the worst scenarios used by banks.The case study presented assessed the impact that the deterioration of the main macroeconomic indicators might have upon a bank’s exposure to credit, FX, liquidity, interest, operational and market risks, upon its capital requirements, provisions and the balance sheet.

  13. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  14. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  15. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  16. Determination of soil erosion risk in the Mustafakemalpasa River Basin, Turkey, using the revised universal soil loss equation, geographic information system, and remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul; Dirim, M Sabri; Tumsavas, Zeynal

    2012-10-01

    -geographic information system (GIS) combination and the measured values from the Dolluk sediment gauge station shows that the potential soil erosion risk of the MKP River Basin can be estimated correctly and reliably using the RUSLE function generated in a GIS environment.

  17. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  18. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  19. Safer passenger car front shapes for pedestrians: A computational approach to reduce overall pedestrian injury risk in realistic impact scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guibing; Yang, Jikuang; Simms, Ciaran

    2017-03-01

    Vehicle front shape has a significant influence on pedestrian injuries and the optimal design for overall pedestrian protection remains an elusive goal, especially considering the variability of vehicle-to-pedestrian accident scenarios. Therefore this study aims to develop and evaluate an efficient framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection accounting for the broad range of real world impact scenarios and their distributions in recent accident data. Firstly, a framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection was developed based on coupling of multi-body simulations and a genetic algorithm. This framework was then applied for optimizing passenger car front shape for pedestrian protection, and its predictions were evaluated using accident data and kinematic analyses. The results indicate that the optimization shows a good convergence and predictions of the optimization framework are corroborated when compared to the available accident data, and the optimization framework can distinguish 'good' and 'poor' vehicle front shapes for pedestrian safety. Thus, it is feasible and reliable to use the optimization framework for vehicle front shape optimization for reducing overall pedestrian injury risk. The results also show the importance of considering the broad range of impact scenarios in vehicle front shape optimization. A safe passenger car for overall pedestrian protection should have a wide and flat bumper (covering pedestrians' legs from the lower leg up to the shaft of the upper leg with generally even contacts), a bonnet leading edge height around 750mm, a short bonnet (17° or car front shape for head and leg protection are generally consistent, but partially conflict with pelvis protection. In particular, both head and leg injury risk increase with increasing bumper lower height and depth, and decrease with increasing bonnet leading edge height, while pelvis injury risk increases with increasing bonnet leading

  20. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  1. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, Evgueni D

    2009-01-01

    The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). It considers the risk LP-models in classification, investment, management of companies, bribes and corruption, analysis of risk and efficiency of social and economical processes, and management of development. Key features of this Second Edition: -Five new chapters -Treatment of the basic principles of the modern risk LP theory (the LP-calculus, the LP-methods and the risk LP-theory with GIE) using uniform methodology and terminology with a practical orientation towards both engineering and economics, for the first time in book form -Clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index -More than a hundred illustrations a...

  2. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour

    2004-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  3. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR), Final Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour; Dortch, Mark S; Gerald, Jeffrey A; Hawkins, Melanie S

    2005-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  4. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  5. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  6. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  7. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  8. Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyer Uma

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

  9. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  10. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  11. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    The northern German lowlands are not especially known for a high frequency of snowfall events. Nevertheless under certain synoptic conditions Lake-Effect-like phenomena caused by the proximity especially of the Baltic Sea can lead to significantly reinforced snowfall intensities that are often accompanied by rather high wind speeds. This makes for infrequent but potentially disastrous snowstorms in a region less accustomed to snow impacts. One possible consequence of an infrastructure failure cascade resulting from severe and longer-lasting snowstorms is a regional disruption of the food supply chain. In the context of "just-in-time"-logistics and the accompanying decrease of storage capabilities, this poses a significant threat to the population's food security. Within the project NeuENV ("New strategies to ensure sufficient food supply in case of crisis in Germany") a snowstorm in the German lowlands involving widespread disruptions of the transportation infrastructure as well as power failures is therefore used as one model for future food supply chain disruptions. In order to obtain a reliable evaluation of the supply chain and crisis management resilience, a detailed snowstorm scenario is being developed. For this purpose, a database of impact reports of past snowstorm events is assembled and analysed to obtain a comprehensive overview of potential infrastructure impairments and failures. Examples of events analysed in this context include the winter 1978/79 with its disastrous snow drifts that commonly attained heights of 3m to 5m leading to a transportation infrastructure collapse across a wide area, the wet snow event in November 2005 in the Münsterland region that caused power failures for up to 250.000 homes, and more recent snowstorms such as Daisy in January 2010. A catalogue of thresholds for relevant parameters indicating when significant failures can be expected is then compiled through a comparison of impact reports with the detailed meteorological

  12. Scenario analysis and disaster preparedness for port and maritime logistics risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesi-Buor, John; Menachof, David A; Talas, Risto

    2016-08-01

    System Dynamics (SD) modelling is used to investigate the impacts of policy interventions on industry actors' preparedness to mitigate risks and to recover from disruptions along the maritime logistics and supply chain network. The model suggests a bi-directional relation between regulation and industry actors' behaviour towards Disaster Preparedness (DP) in maritime logistics networks. The model also showed that the level of DP is highly contingent on forecast accuracy, technology change, attitude to risk prevention, port activities, and port environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Preventing erosion at pipeline crossings of watercourses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawatsky, L.; Arnold, G.

    1997-01-01

    Watercourses are naturally vulnerable to erosion but the risk is particularly acute after sub-soil and armour materials have been disturbed by trenching and backfilling during construction. Various types of erosion (river scour, river bed, river channel bed and river bank ) and the progressive removal of pipeline cover resulting from erosion were discussed. Methods of estimating the risk of progressive erosion, river avulsions and beaver dam scour, and methods of mitigating erosion at pipeline crossings such as deep burial, proper siting, conventional armouring, and a combination of bank toe protection, and upper bank vegetation cover, were described

  14. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  15. Empirical yield-curve dynamics, scenario simulation and risk-measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Claus

    This paper has two objectives. First we will construct a general model for the variation in the term structure of interest rates, or to put it another way, we will define a general model for the shift function. Secondly, we will specify a Risk model which uses the shift function derived in the fi...

  16. Soil erosion risk assessment along the main oil pipeline route using high resolution satellite imagery and geoinformation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djamalov, A.T.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the prediction possibilities of soil erosion processes along the main oil pipeline route were investigated that allows warning possible emergency consequences of these processes. Results of this research are the USLE model raster map for the test area and the table of estimation of soil loss intensity on the experimental area

  17. Developing generalized parameters for post-fire erosion risk assessment using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hosseini, Mohammadreza; Nunes, João Pedro; Pelayo, Oscar González; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

    2018-01-01

    Models can be useful for predicting the hydrological impacts of natural phenomenon such as wildfires and to help implement effective post-fire land management options. In this research, the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (MMF) model was used to simulate runoff and soil erosion in recently burned

  18. Caries and dental erosion: are Soroti children and adolescents at risk from increased soft-drink availability in Uganda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jordan; Campbell, Karen

    2016-12-01

    An initial field study to investigate dental caries and dental erosion in children and adolescents in the community of Soroti, Uganda. A stratified two-stage cluster sample of 84 children (ages 8-10) and adolescents (ages 16-19) were recruited. A survey was undertaken to assess the state of determinants of oral health, oral hygiene practices, and soft-drink and sweetened-tea consumption. Intra-oral photographs were taken and reviewed to measure Decayed, Missing, and Filled Teeth (DMFT) and dental erosion. A significant difference was observed in DMFT between children and adolescents (3.7 ± 2.7 versus 2.1 ± 2.4 p=.02). A trend of lower erosion scores was seen in children compared to adolescents. Greater frequency of sweetened-tea consumption over soft-drinks was noted in both groups. This study did not reveal any relationship between different levels of cariogenic beverage consumption and DMFT or dental erosion in this sample group.

  19. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  20. Innovative approach using interprofessional simulation to educate surgical residents in technical and nontechnical skills in high-risk clinical scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicksa, Grace A; Anderson, Cristan; Fidler, Richard; Stewart, Lygia

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education core competencies stress nontechnical skills that can be difficult to evaluate and teach to surgical residents. During emergencies, surgeons work in interprofessional teams and are required to perform certain procedures. To obtain proficiency in these skills, residents must be trained. To educate surgical residents in leadership, teamwork, effective communication, and infrequently performed emergency surgical procedures with the use of interprofessional simulations. SimMan 3GS was used to simulate high-risk clinical scenarios (15-20 minutes), followed by debriefings with real-time feedback (30 minutes). A modified Oxford Non-Technical Skills scale (score range, 1-4) was used to assess surgical resident performance during the first half of the academic year (July-December 2012) and the second half of the academic year (January-June 2013). Anonymous online surveys were used to solicit participant feedback. Simulations were conducted in the operating room, intensive care unit, emergency department, ward, and simulation center. A total of 43 surgical residents (postgraduate years [PGYs] 1 and 2) participated in interdisciplinary clinical scenarios, with other health care professionals (nursing, anesthesia, critical care, medicine, respiratory therapy, and pharmacy; mean number of nonsurgical participants/session: 4, range 0-9). Thirty seven surgical residents responded to the survey. Simulation of high-risk clinical scenarios: postoperative pulmonary embolus, pneumothorax, myocardial infarction, gastrointestinal bleeding, anaphylaxis with a difficult airway, and pulseless electrical activity arrest. Evaluation of resident skills: communication, leadership, teamwork, problem solving, situation awareness, and confidence in performing emergency procedures (eg, cricothyroidotomy). A total of 31 of 35 (89%) of the residents responding found the sessions useful. Additionally, 28 of 33 (85%) reported improved confidence

  1. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  2. Risk, Benefit, and Cost Thresholds for Emergency Department Testing: A Cross-sectional, Scenario-based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meka, Arjun Prasad; Porath, Jonathan Douglas; Iyengar, Rahul; Morrow, Chelsea; Fagerlin, Angela; Meurer, William J

    2017-06-01

    While diagnostic testing is common in the emergency department, the value of some testing is questionable. The purpose of this study was to assess how varying levels of benefit, risk, and costs influenced an individual's desire to have diagnostic testing. A survey through Amazon Mechanical Turk presented hypothetical clinical situations: low-risk chest pain and minor traumatic brain injury. Each scenario included three given variables (benefit, risk, and cost), that was independently randomly varied over four possible values (0.1, 1, 5, and 10% for benefit and risk and $0, $100, $500, and $1,000 for the individual's personal cost for receiving the test). Benefit was defined as the probability of finding the target disease (traumatic intracranial hemorrhage or acute coronary syndrome). One-thousand unique respondents completed the survey. With an increased benefit from 0.1% to 10%, the percentage of respondents who accepted a diagnostic test went from 28.4% to 53.1%. (odds ratio [OR] = 3.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.57-4.54). As risk increased from 0.1% to 10%, this number decreased from 52.5% to 28.5%. (OR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25-0.44). Increasing cost from $0 to $1,000 had the greatest change of those accepting the test from 61.1% to 21.4%, respectively (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.11-0.2). The desire for testing was strongly sensitive to the benefits, risks, and costs. Many participants wanted a test when there was no added cost, regardless of benefit or risk levels, but far fewer elected to receive the test as cost increased incrementally. This suggests that out-of-pocket costs may deter patients from undergoing diagnostic testing with low potential benefit. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  3. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

  4. Prostate cancer and industrial pollution Risk around putative focus in a multi-source scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramis, Rebeca; Diggle, Peter; Cambra, Koldo; López-Abente, Gonzalo

    2011-04-01

    Prostate cancer is the second most common type of cancer among men but its aetiology is still largely unknown. Different studies have proposed several risk factors such as ethnic origin, age, genetic factors, hormonal factors, diet and insulin-like growth factor, but the spatial distribution of the disease suggests that other environmental factors are involved. This paper studies the spatial distribution of prostate cancer mortality in an industrialized area using distances from each of a number of industrial facilities as indirect measures of exposure to industrial pollution. We studied the Gran Bilbao area (Spain) with a population of 791,519 inhabitants distributed in 657 census tracts. There were 20 industrial facilities within the area, 8 of them in the central axis of the region. We analysed prostate cancer mortality during the period 1996-2003. There were 883 deaths giving a crude rate of 14 per 100,000 inhabitants. We extended the standard Poisson regression model by the inclusion of a multiplicative non-linear function to model the effect of distance from an industrial facility. The function's shape combined an elevated risk close to the source with a neutral effect at large distance. We also included socio-demographic covariates in the model to control potential confounding. We aggregated the industrial facilities by sector: metal, mineral, chemical and other activities. Results relating to metal industries showed a significantly elevated risk by a factor of approximately 1.4 in the immediate vicinity, decaying with distance to a value of 1.08 at 12km. The remaining sectors did not show a statistically significant excess of risk at the source. Notwithstanding the limitations of this kind of study, we found evidence of association between the spatial distribution of prostate cancer mortality aggregated by census tracts and proximity to metal industrial facilities located within the area, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics at municipality

  5. Erhversbetinget erosion?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dige, Irene; Gjørup, Hans; Nyvad, Bente

    2012-01-01

    Baggrund – I forbindelse med dental erosion er en grundig udredning af patienten vigtig, således at årsagen til erosionernes opståen findes, og der kan iværksættes adækvat forebyggende indsats. En sådan udredning er ikke mindst vigtig, når arbejdsmiljøet mistænkes. Patienttilfælde – En 30-årig...... arbejdsskade, men ikke anerkendt, da erosioner ikke er optaget på Arbejdsskadestyrelsens liste over erhvervssygdomme. En systematisk registrering af lignende tilfælde kunne imidlertid på sigt ændre retspraksis for fremtidige patienter med arbejdsbetinget erosion....... patient, der arbejder som pladesmed, blev henvist til Landsdels- og Videnscenter, Århus Sygehus, med henblik på udredning af patientens kraftige slid. Patienten udviste ikke-alderssvarende tandslid af emalje og dentin svarende til erosion forårsaget af syredampe i arbejdsmiljøet, muligvis forstærket af...

  6. Support to triage and public risk perception considering long-term response to a Cs-137 radiological dispersive device scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Cristiane Ps; Souza, Cláudio J; Camerini, Eduardo Sn; Alves, Isabela S; Vital, Hélio C; Healy, Matthew Jf; Ramos De Andrade, Edson

    2018-01-01

    A radiological dispersive device (RDD) spreads radioactive material, complicates the treatment of physical injuries, raises cancer risk, and induces disproportionate fear. Simulating such an event enables more effective and efficient utilization of the triage and treatment resources of staff, facilities, and space. Fast simulation can give detail on events in progress or future events. The resources for triage and treatment of contaminated trauma victims can differ for pure exposure individuals, while discouraging the "worried well" from presenting in the crisis phase by media announcement would relieve pressure on hospital facilities. The proposed methodology integrates capabilities from different platforms in a convergent way composed of three phases: (a) scenario simulation, (b) data generation, and (c) risk assessment for triage focused on follow-up epidemiological assessment. Simulations typically indicate that most of the affected population does not require immediate medical assistance. Medical triage for the few severely injured and the radiological triage to diminish the contamination with radioactivity will always be the priority. For this study, however, higher priorities should be given to individuals from radiological "warm" and "hot" zones as required by risk criteria. The proposed methodology could thus help to (a) filter and reduce the number of individuals to be attended, (b) optimize the prioritization of medical care, (c) reduce or prepare for future costs, (d) effectively locate the operational triage site to avoid possible contamination on the main facility, and (e) provide the scientific data needed to develop an adequate approach to risk and its proper communication.

  7. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  8. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  9. Coastal risks in Sri-Lanka - GIS, scenario and modelling approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Garcin , Manuel; Desprats , Jean-François; Pedreros , Rodrigo; Fontaine , Mélanie; Sedan , Olivier; Lenotre , Nicole; Attanayake , Nishantha; De Silva , Udaya; Fernando , Starin; Siriwardana , Cher

    2008-01-01

    1 p.; International audience; The impact of the tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Sri Lanka clearly showed the importance of a thorough knowledge of coastal risks and of taking these into account in order to reduce their impacts. We present here a project funded by French Government (Ministère des Affaires Etrangères) and BRGM Research Division including both Sri Lankan and French institutions. The aims of this project are to implement an effective tool designed to reduce the impact of coastal ...

  10. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ehlen, Mark Andrew (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

    2009-10-01

    Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

  11. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  12. Identification of active erosion areas and areas at risk by remote sensing: an example in the Esera Isabena watershed, Central Spanish Pyrenees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alatorre, L. C.; Begueria, S.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.

    2009-01-01

    The identification of eroded areas at basin scale can be very useful for environmental planning and can help to reduce land degradation and sediments yield. In this paper remote sensing technique are used to discriminate eroded areas and areas at risk in a badlands landscape developed on Eocene marls. In the Esera Isabena watershed (Spanish Pyrenees). The spatial distribution, the scarce vegetal cover and the high level of erosion let a good visual and digital discrimination of badlands, as opposed to other land covers and surfaces. A maximum likelihood supervised method was used to discriminate heavily eroded areas (badlands) from scarce or densely vegetated lands. the classification distance was used to obtain thresholds for eroded areas and areas at risk. Two error statistics (sensitivity and specificity), where used to determine the most adequate threshold values. The resulting map shows that most areas at risk are located surrounding the badlands areas. (Author) 8 refs.

  13. Identification of active erosion areas and areas at risk by remote sensing: an example in the Esera Isabena watershed, Central Spanish Pyrenees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alatorre, L. C.; Begueria, S.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.

    2009-07-01

    The identification of eroded areas at basin scale can be very useful for environmental planning and can help to reduce land degradation and sediments yield. In this paper remote sensing technique are used to discriminate eroded areas and areas at risk in a badlands landscape developed on Eocene marls. In the Esera Isabena watershed (Spanish Pyrenees). The spatial distribution, the scarce vegetal cover and the high level of erosion let a good visual and digital discrimination of badlands, as opposed to other land covers and surfaces. A maximum likelihood supervised method was used to discriminate heavily eroded areas (badlands) from scarce or densely vegetated lands. the classification distance was used to obtain thresholds for eroded areas and areas at risk. Two error statistics (sensitivity and specificity), where used to determine the most adequate threshold values. The resulting map shows that most areas at risk are located surrounding the badlands areas. (Author) 8 refs.

  14. Buffer erosion in dilute groundwater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schatz, T.; Kanerva, N.; Martikainen, J.; Sane, P.; Olin, M.; Seppaelae, A.; Koskinen, K.

    2013-08-01

    One scenario of interest for repository safety assessment involves the loss of bentonite buffer material in contact with dilute groundwater flowing through a transmissive fracture interface. In order to examine the extrusion/erosion behavior of bentonite buffer material under such circumstances, a series of experiments were performed in a flow-through, 1 mm aperture, artificial fracture system. These experiments covered a range of solution chemistry (salt concentration and composition), material composition (sodium montmorillonite and admixtures with calcium montmorillonite), and flow velocity conditions. No erosion was observed for sodium montmorillonite against solution compositions from 0.5 g/L to 10 g/L NaCl. No erosion was observed for 50/50 calcium/sodium montmorillonite against 0.5 g/L NaCl. Erosion was observed for both sodium montmorillonite and 50/50 calcium/sodium montmorillonite against solution compositions ≤ 0.25 g/L NaCl. The calculated erosion rates for the tests with the highest levels of measured erosion, i.e., the tests run under the most dilute conditions (ionic strength (IS) < ∼1 mM), were well-correlated to flow velocity, whereas the calculated erosion rates for the tests with lower levels of measured erosion, i.e., the tests run under somewhat less dilute conditions (∼1 mM < IS < ∼4 mM), were not similarly correlated indicating that material and solution composition can significantly affect erosion rates. In every experiment, both erosive and non-erosive, emplaced buffer material extruded into the fracture and was observed to be impermeable to water flowing in the fracture effectively forming an extended diffusive barrier around the intersecting fracture/buffer interface. Additionally, a model which was developed previously to predict the rate of erosion of bentonite buffer material in low ionic strength water in rock fracture environments was applied to three different cases: sodium montmorillonite expansion in a vertical tube, a

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment for back-end facilities: Improving the treatment of fire and explosion scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunman, C.R.J.; Campbell, R.J.; Wakem, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear reprocessing facilities at Sellafield are a key component of the International business of BNFL. The operations carried out at the site extend from the receipt and storage of irradiated fuel, chemical reprocessing, plutonium and uranium finishing, through mixed oxide fuel production. Additionally there are a wide range of supporting processes including solid waste encapsulation, vitrification, liquid waste evaporation and treatment. Decommissioning of the site's older facilities is also proceeding. The comprehensive range of these activities requires that the safety assessment team keeps up to date with developments in the field, as well as conducting and sponsoring appropriate research into methodologies and modelling in order to deliver a cost effective, timely service. This paper will review the role of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in safety cases for operations at Sellafield and go on to describe some areas of PRA methodology development in the UK and in which BNFL is a contributor. Finally the paper will summarise some specific areas of methodology development associated with improving the modelling of fire and explosion hazards which are specific to BNFL. (author)

  16. Farmers' identification of erosion indicators and related erosion damage in the Central Highlands of Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, G.; Okoba, B.O.

    2006-01-01

    Most soil and water conservation planning approaches rely on empirical assessment methods and hardly consider farmers' knowledge of soil erosion processes. Farmers' knowledge of on-site erosion indicators could be useful in assessing the site-specific erosion risk before planning any conservation

  17. An Updated Comprehensive Risk Analysis for Radioisotopes Identified of High Risk to National Security in the Event of a Radiological Dispersion Device Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Alexandra R.

    An updated global survey of radioisotope production and distribution was completed and subjected to a revised "down-selection methodology" to determine those radioisotopes that should be classified as potential national security risks based on availability and key physical characteristics that could be exploited in a hypothetical radiological dispersion device. The potential at-risk radioisotopes then were used in a modeling software suite known as Turbo FRMAC, developed by Sandia National Laboratories, to characterize plausible contamination maps known as Protective Action Guideline Zone Maps. This software also was used to calculate the whole body dose equivalent for exposed individuals based on various dispersion parameters and scenarios. Derived Response Levels then were determined for each radioisotope using: 1) target doses to members of the public provided by the U.S. EPA, and 2) occupational dose limits provided by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The limiting Derived Response Level for each radioisotope also was determined.

  18. From hypothetical scenario to tragic reality: A salutary lesson in risk communication and the Victorian 2009 bushfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Robin; Robinson, Priscilla; Smith, Penelope

    2010-02-01

    To investigate the ways that the risk of a bushfire emergency and communication strategies are perceived by different community segments. A brief questionnaire preceded focus group discussion of a bushfire scenario with four communications from different sources. Groups were recruited to represent different community segments within a bushfire-prone peri-urban Shire in Victoria. Four groups (28 participants) were recruited. Bushfire experience was highest in the over 40-year-olds, who would use a variety of information sources, preferred to receive information from trusted local sources, such as emergency services and the council, and were more likely to be a member of a local organisation than the under 40s. Younger people used television, local papers, and friends, family and neighbours as information sources. Young parents felt disempowered through lack of local knowledge, and trusted government departments less than older residents. All wanted clear, current, specific local information about ground conditions and actions to be taken during a fire outbreak. Knowledge of and preparedness for bushfire is unequally spread throughout a bushfire community. There is a need in public health risk and emergency situations to focus on community development, information and consultation. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

  19. Best management practices to reduce and prevent water pollution with herbicides from run-off and erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gehring, Klaus

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The natural phenomenon of run-off and erosion lead to unpreventable pesticide water pollution in case of extreme weather conditions. In this relationship the use of herbicides involves a higher risk than other pesticides because of the specific terms of application. Directive 2009/128/EC for the sustainable use of pesticides aspires to enhanced water protection. German national action plan contains quantitative objectives which require strong reduction of water pollution by run-off and erosion of pesticides and accordingly herbicides. The European TOPPS prowadis project developed a consolidated and basic diagnosis concept for the first time to determine the field specific run-off risk. Compatible mitigation measures were linked to specific risk scenarios. Risk diagnosis and suitable mitigation measures determine best management practices for the prevention of run-off and erosion. Different new diagnosis methods and the implementation are presented. Further documents and information are available on the web [http://www.topps-life.org/].

  20. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  1. Invasion risk of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Min Jung

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes has destroyed local ecosystems in numerous countries, and their population sizes and distribution are likely to increase under global warming. To evaluate the risk of invasion by yellow crazy ant in South Korea, this study identified their potential habitats and predicted their future global distribution by modeling various climate change scenarios using CLIMEX software. Our modeling predicted that future climate conditions in South Korea will be favorable for the yellow crazy ant, and they could invade by the mid-21st century. We highlight the use of predictive algorithms to establish geographical areas with a high risk of yellow crazy ant invasion under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Keywords: Anoplolepis gracilipes, climate change scenario, CLIMEX, invasive species, yellow crazy ant

  2. Assessment and management of dental erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Lussi, Adrian

    2010-07-01

    Studies have shown a growing trend toward increasing prevalence of dental erosion, associated with the declining prevalence of caries disease in industrialized countries. Erosion is an irreversible chemical process that results in tooth substance loss and leaves teeth susceptible to damage as a result of wear over the course of an individual's lifetime. Therefore, early diagnosis and adequate prevention are essential to minimize the risk of tooth erosion. Clinical appearance is the most important sign to be used to diagnose erosion. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) is a simple method to fulfill this task. The determination of a variety of risk and protective factors (patient-dependent and nutrition-dependent factors) as well as their interplay are necessary to initiate preventive measures tailored to the individual. When tooth loss caused by erosive wear reaches a certain level, oral rehabilitation becomes necessary. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. DENTAL EROSION IN PRIMARY DENTITION- A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafi Shaik

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The pattern of oral diseases has been influenced by ever changing human lifestyle. Tooth wear especially dental erosion has drawn increasing attention as risk factor for tooth damage or loss in recent years. It is a common condition in primary dentition compared to permanent dentition due to thinner and less mineralised enamel. However, it is more worrying, when this condition is being found in an alarming proportion among children. The presence of dental erosion in children is likely to be associated with a number of general health and dietary factors, but it is also aggravated by the relatively more rapid progression of erosion in the deciduous teeth. An understanding of the aetiologies and risk factors for erosion is important for early recognition of dental erosion to prevent serious irreversible damage to the dentition. This paper discusses the erosion in children with regard to its epidemiology, prevalence, clinical features, measurement and prevention.

  4. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  5. Soil Erosion as a stochastic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casper, Markus C.

    2015-04-01

    The main tools to provide estimations concerning risk and amount of erosion are different types of soil erosion models: on the one hand, there are empirically based model concepts on the other hand there are more physically based or process based models. However, both types of models have substantial weak points. All empirical model concepts are only capable of providing rough estimates over larger temporal and spatial scales, they do not account for many driving factors that are in the scope of scenario related analysis. In addition, the physically based models contain important empirical parts and hence, the demand for universality and transferability is not given. As a common feature, we find, that all models rely on parameters and input variables, which are to certain, extend spatially and temporally averaged. A central question is whether the apparent heterogeneity of soil properties or the random nature of driving forces needs to be better considered in our modelling concepts. Traditionally, researchers have attempted to remove spatial and temporal variability through homogenization. However, homogenization has been achieved through physical manipulation of the system, or by statistical averaging procedures. The price for obtaining this homogenized (average) model concepts of soils and soil related processes has often been a failure to recognize the profound importance of heterogeneity in many of the properties and processes that we study. Especially soil infiltrability and the resistance (also called "critical shear stress" or "critical stream power") are the most important empirical factors of physically based erosion models. The erosion resistance is theoretically a substrate specific parameter, but in reality, the threshold where soil erosion begins is determined experimentally. The soil infiltrability is often calculated with empirical relationships (e.g. based on grain size distribution). Consequently, to better fit reality, this value needs to be

  6. Regional soil erosion assessment in Slovakia using modelling and farmer's participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kenderessy, Pavol; Veihe, Anita

    with cereals, sunflowers and corn and is characterised by poor cultivation practices and use of fertilizers leading to land degradation. As a first step, the initial raster-based modelling of soil loss and deposition has provided acceptable and realistic values. The predicted spatial patterns of erosion...... for erosion risk assessments at the landscape scale in Slovakia using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods for assessing spatial prediction patterns. The model was set up for the Paríž catchment (239.93 km2) in south-western Slovakia. The area has been intensively cultivated primarily...... are now being identified using farmer participation to ensure that the ‘correct’ hot spot areas are being identified. In the end, scenarios will be set up to assess the effect of farming practices and/or conservation measures on soil erosion rates in the area....

  7. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  8. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

  9. Frequency and risk factors of gastric and duodenal ulcers or erosions in children: a prospective 1-month European multicenter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalach, Nicolas; Bontems, Patrick; Koletzko, Sibylle

    2010-01-01

    There are no solid figures of the frequency of ulcer disease during childhood in Europe. We assessed its frequency and analyzed known risk factors.......There are no solid figures of the frequency of ulcer disease during childhood in Europe. We assessed its frequency and analyzed known risk factors....

  10. Erosion and sedimentation caused by watercourse regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, T.E.; Godtland, K.

    1995-01-01

    This report describes the observations made by SINTEF NHL in 1993 - 1994 on the development of erosion in three regulated lakes in Norway: Devdesjavri, Store Maalvatn and Gjevilvatnet. Surveys, profile levelling, water sample analyses, aerial photography etc were all used. Erosion was dramatic in all three magazines the first year of regulation and then slowed down. It has since remained relatively stable. However, there is a risk of further strong erosion connected with flooding tributaries, notably at low water such as usually occurs in spring. This is true in particular of the main river discharging into Devdesjavri, which is subject to landslides, wave and river erosion. In addition, ground water erosion may occur if the magazine is drained too fast. The report is lavishly illustrated with colour pictures of the effects of erosion. 21 refs., 15 figs., 13 tabs

  11. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  12. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  13. Results of extended plant tests using more realistic exposure scenarios for improving environmental risk assessment of veterinary pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Elisabeth; Berkner, Silvia; Ebert, Ina; Förster, Bernhard; Graf, Nadin; Herrchen, Monika; Kühnen, Ute; Römbke, Jörg; Simon, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) enter the environment via application of manure onto agricultural areas where in particular antibiotics can cause phytotoxicity. Terrestrial plant tests according to OECD guideline 208 are part of the environmental risk assessment of VMPs. However, this standard approach might not be appropriate for VMPs which form non-extractable residues or transformation products in manure and manure-amended soil. Therefore, a new test design with a more realistic exposure scenario via manure application is needed. This paper presents an extended plant test and its experimental verification with the veterinary antibiotics florfenicol and tylosin tartrate. With each substance, plant tests with four different types of application were conducted: standard tests according to OECD 208 and three tests with application of test substance via spiked manure either without storage, aerobically incubated, or anaerobically incubated for different time periods. In standard tests, the lowest NOEC was tylosin tartrate. Pre-tests showed that plant growth was not impaired at 22-g fresh manure/kg dry soil, which therefore was used for the final tests. The application of the test substances via freshly spiked as well as via aerobically incubated manure had no significant influence on the test results. Application of florfenicol via anaerobically incubated manure increased the EC10 by a factor up to 282 and 540 for half-maximum and for maximum incubation period, respectively. For tylosin tartrate, this factor amounted to 64 at half-maximum and 61 at maximum incubation period. The reduction of phytotoxicity was generally stronger when using cattle manure than pig manure and particularly in tests with cattle manure phytotoxicity decreased over the incubation period. The verification of the extended plant test showed that seedling emergence and growth are comparable to a standard OECD 208 test and reliable effect concentrations could be established. As

  14. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

  15. Recent and future rainfall erosivity on the territory of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasa, Josef; Stredova, Hana; Stepanek, Petr; Hanel, Martin; Dostal, Tomas; Novotny, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Water erosion is a main factor of degradation of soils used for agriculture in the Czech Republic. For landscape conservation purposes the soil erosion risk is defined here mostly by USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Within USLE the precipitation impact on erosion is a function of rainfall kinetic energy and intensity represented by R-factor. In the Czech Republic historically and recently several research teams have analyzed rainfall data to assess R-factor. Till now not many European countries have performed detailed spatially distributed analyses of rain erosivities. Most studies use only simplified methods based on long-term rainfall averages or databases of only several station-datasets. The most recent study on rainfall erosivity spatial distribution over the Czech Republic was based on digital rain gauge data from automatic stations of the Czech Hydrometeorogical Institute. The erosive rains were derived from continuous 1 minute step 10-year rainfall data (2003-2012) from 245 stations. Based on the research recent annual R-factor values in the stations vary from 37 to 239 [N.h-1] (values over 100 are located in mountain regions with minimum of agricultural land). Average value is 69 [N.h-1.year-1]. For the Czech Republic the future prediction is based on 10km resolution ALADIN/CZ regional climate model. Within the EU FP6 project CECILIA it was coupled with GCM ARPEGE to provide a projection of future climate in two time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. Daily precipitation volumes and percentiles of maximal events allowed authors to develop R-factor maps of present and future scenarios. Based on the analyses we can conclude that average value for the whole territory of the Czech Republic will remain close to 70 [N.h-1.year-1] or even decrease for 2071-2100, but we can expect significant changes (30-40 % rise or decrease) for several large agricultural regions (eg. Southern Moravia). These changes will have impact

  16. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model

    OpenAIRE

    Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M

    2012-01-01

    Objective To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Setting Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Participants 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Main outcome measures ...

  17. Coupling of phenological information and simulated vegetation index time series: Limitations and potentials for the assessment and monitoring of soil erosion risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monitoring of agricultural used soils at frequent intervals is needed to get a sufficient understanding of soil erosion processes. This is crucial to support decision making and refining soil policies especially in the context of climate change. Along with rainfall erosivity, soil coverage by vegeta...

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in the Great Lakes Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting future erosion control efforts, and/or conservation funding. Therefore, the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity—Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP soil erosion model was utilized to quantify soil losses under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, B1 using projections from three general circulation models (GFDL, PCM, HadCM3 for the Great Lakes region from 2000 to 2100. Soil loss was predicted to decrease throughout three future periods (2030s, 2060s, and 2090s by 0.4–0.7 ton ha−1 year−1 (4.99–23.2% relative to the historical period (2000s with predicted air temperature increases of 0.68–4.34 °C and precipitation increases of 1.74–63.7 mm year−1 (0.23–8.6%. In the forested northern study domain erosion kept increasing by 0.01–0.18 ton ha−1 year−1 over three future periods due to increased precipitation of 9.7–68.3 mm year−1. The southern study domain covered by cropland and grassland had predicted soil loss decreases of 0.01–1.43 ton ha−1 year−1 due to air temperature increases of 1.75–4.79 °C and reduced precipitation in the summer. Fall and winter had greater risks of increased soil loss based on predictions for these two seasons under the A2 scenario, with the greatest cropland soil loss increase due to increased fall precipitation, and combined effects of increases in both precipitation and air temperature in the winter. Fall was identified with higher risks under the A1B scenario, while spring and summer were identified with the greatest risk of increased soil losses under the B1 scenario due to the increases in both precipitation and air temperature.

  19. Development Of Rainfall Erosivity Map For Nigeria | Ogedengbe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The indices were used to develop a rainfall erosivity map or Nigeria. The map reveals that Nigeria may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The south-western part is generally in the low erosion zone, with the exception of the coastal portion of Lagos, Ondo, Edo and Delta states. The south-east and central ...

  20. Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

    2018-01-01

    According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

  1. Soil erosion risk as a measure of the effects of land pattern changes on runoff processes in the landscape – case studies from Lower Austria and Central Bohemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devátý, Jan; Strauss, Peter; Hoesl, Rosemarie; Dostal, Tomas; Krása, Josef

    2015-04-01

    Changes in land use, landscape structure and agricultural technologies affect number of soil characteristics as well as rainfall-runoff processes in the landscape. Soil erosion and sediment transport can be easily used for documentation and quantification of the impacts of land use development in time. Extent and structure of arable land within a landscape is driven by technological, social and political, factors and differs between countries. However land structure development is more or less natural process and is driven under normal conditions mainly by climatic and economic forces, the effects of political development is very well documented on different sides of the former iron curtain. There is unique chance to compare the trends in historical development during different historical periods given by both of economic and political forces and to search for optimum land structure, using rainfall-runoff processes as a measure. Land structure analysis and soil erosion risk assessment was carried out for two areas of interest and series of historical periods: • Lower Austrian municipality of Kleinweikersdorf (580 ha) - 1822, 1945, 1966, 1990, 2008 • part of Botic river watershed in Central Bohemia (810 ha) - 1841, 1953, 1971, 1989, 2003, 2013 Land use delimitation and field plots spatial definition was digitized from available data sources (Historical Cadastral maps and aerial photographs). Changes in crop properties and management practices were also taken into account based on historical information. Comparison between time periods shows that political actions can cause substantial impact on field plot sizes. At the Austrian area of interest the number of arable field plot continually decreases from 1203 (in 1822) to 371 (in 2008) whereas at the Czech area of interest the initial number of 469 parcels (in 1841) decreases to 32 (in 1989) and then rises again in the last two time periods. While the trend of rising average parcel size in Austria is continuous

  2. Mapping erosion from space

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.

    2007-01-01

    Soil erosion by water is the most important land degradation problem worldwide. Spatial information on erosion is required for defining effective soil and water conservation strategies. Satellite remote sensing can provide relevant input to regional erosion assessment. This thesis comprises a review

  3. Erosion-corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aghili, B.

    1999-05-01

    A literature study on erosion-corrosion of pipings in the nuclear industry was performed. Occurred incidents are reviewed, and the mechanism driving the erosion-corrosion is described. Factors that influence the effect in negative or positive direction are treated, as well as programs for control and inspection. Finally, examples of failures from databases on erosion-corrosion are given in an attachment

  4. Assessing storm erosion hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

  5. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  6. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

  7. Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks : Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Coumou, J.

    2012-01-01

    Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the

  8. Managing dental erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Donald A; Jayanetti, Jay; Chu, Raymond; Staninec, Michal

    2012-01-01

    The clinical signs of dental erosion are initially subtle, yet often progress because the patient remains asymptomatic, unaware and uninformed. Erosion typically works synergistically with abrasion and attrition to cause loss of tooth structure, making diagnosis and management complex. The purpose of this article is to outline clinical examples of patients with dental erosion that highlight the strategy of early identification, patient education and conservative restorative management. Dental erosion is defined as the pathologic chronic loss of dental hard tissues as a result of the chemical influence of exogenous or endogenous acids without bacterial involvement. Like caries or periodontal disease, erosion has a multifactorial etiology and requires a thorough history and examination for diagnosis. It also requires patient understanding and compliance for improved outcomes. Erosion can affect the loss of tooth structure in isolation of other cofactors, but most often works in synergy with abrasion and attrition in the loss of tooth structure (Table 1). Although erosion is thought to be an underlying etiology of dentin sensitivity, erosion and loss of tooth structure often occurs with few symptoms. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to outline existing barriers that may limit early management of dental erosion. Second, to review the clinical assessment required to establish a diagnosis of erosion. And third, to outline clinical examples that review options to restore lost tooth structure. The authors have included illustrations they hope will be used to improve patient understanding and motivation in the early management of dental erosion.

  9. Erosion Pressure on the Danish Coasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Sørensen, Per; Kroon, Aart

    Coastlines around the world are receding due to coastal erosion.With rising sea levels and a potential climatic deterioration due to climate change, erosion rates are likely to increase at many locations in the future.Together with the current preference of people to settle near or directly...... by the ocean, coastal erosion issues become increasingly more important to the human values at risk. Along many Danish coastlines, hard structures already act as coastal protection in the form of groins, breakwaters, revetments etc. These eroding coasts however still lack sand and where the public, in general......, neglects the need for sand replenishment i.e. in the form of repeated sand nourishments. Here we present a conceptual model and method for dividing coastal erosion into acute and chronic erosion pressure, respectively. We focus on the model use for management and climate change adaptation purposes...

  10. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  11. The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustin, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to

  12. Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

  13. Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

    2016-10-01

    One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

  14. Scenario-targeted toxicity assessment through multiple endpoint bioassays in a soil posing unacceptable environmental risk according to regulatory screening values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Ruiz, A; Etxebarria, J; Boatti, L; Marigómez, I

    2015-09-01

    Lanestosa is a chronically polluted site (derelict mine) where the soil (Lanestosa (LA) soil) exceeds screening values (SVs) of regulatory policies in force (Basque Country; Europe) for Zn, Pb and Cd. A scenario-targeted toxicity assessment was carried out on the basis of a multi-endpoint bioassay approach. Acute and chronic toxicity bioassays were conducted with selected test species (Vibrio fischeri, Dictyostelium discoideum, Lactuca sativa, Raphanus sativus and Eisenia fetida) in combination with chemical analysis of soils and elutriates and with bioaccumulation studies in earthworms. Besides, the toxicity profile was compared with that of the mine runoff (RO) soil and of a fresh artificially polluted soil (LAAPS) resembling LA soil pollutant profile. Extractability studies in LA soil revealed that Pb, Zn and Cd were highly available for exchange and/or release into the environment. Indeed, Pb and Zn were accumulated in earthworms and LA soil resulted to be toxic. Soil respiration, V. fischeri, vegetative and developmental cycles of D. discoideum and survival and juvenile production of E. fetida were severely affected. These results confirmed that LA soil had unacceptable environmental risk and demanded intervention. In contrast, although Pb and Zn concentrations in RO soil revealed also unacceptable risk, both metal extractability and toxicity were much lower than in LA soil. Thus, within the polluted site, the need for intervention varied between areas that posed dissimilar risk. Besides, since LAAPS, with a high exchangeable metal fraction, was the most toxic, ageing under in situ natural conditions seemingly contributed to attenuate LA soil risk. As a whole, combining multi-endpoint bioassays with scenario-targeted analysis (including leaching and ageing) provides reliable risk assessment in soils posing unacceptable environmental risk according to SVs, which is useful to optimise the required intervention measures.

  15. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R.; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Brink, van den Paul J.; Rico Artero, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; Laender, De Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-01-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment

  16. Risk of development of solid cancer and its relation with the classes of Pasquill-Gifford atmospheric stability in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda

    2018-01-01

    The release of radioactive material into the environment can lead to serious consequences that include the risk of cancer induction in the affected population. This work intends to study the influence of the Pasquill-Gilfford atmospheric stability classes on the consequences of a simulated RDD event with respect to the risk of developing solid cancer in the exposed population. The HotSpot health Physics Code software was used for the simulation of the radiological scenario that allows to estimate the doses received by exposed individuals and the environmental contamination at the event site. The HotSpot code uses the Gaussian model to simulate the dispersion of radiological material in the atmosphere. Conservatively, it generates data to evaluate the contamination of an area of interest. These data allow to know the Total Effective Equivalent Dose (TEDE), which corresponds to the combined dose of all exposure routes (external and internal). The estimated dose was used as input data for the biostatistical model developed by the Research Foundation on Radiation Effects (RERF) to estimate the risk of the related morbidity development. The model equation estimate the risk of developing solid cancer. The data from HotSpot enabled the calculation of the affected areas, doses in each area, as well as relative risk (RR) of solid cancer estimation for the affected population, taking into account age and sex and its possible relation with the classes of atmospheric stability. These estimates can be a good resource for a first evaluation of such a scenario, accounting for the recommended dose limits for shelter and evacuation and, consequently, a valuable decision support for the ongoing radiological event. (author)

  17. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  18. Strengths and Gaps in Physicians' Risk Communication: A Scenario Study of the Influence of Numeracy on Cancer Screening Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Dafina; Kostopoulou, Olga; Delaney, Brendan C; Cokely, Edward T; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio

    2018-04-01

    Many patients have low numeracy, which impedes their understanding of important information about health (e.g., benefits and harms of screening). We investigated whether physicians adapt their risk communication to accommodate the needs of patients with low numeracy, and how physicians' own numeracy influences their understanding and communication of screening statistics. UK family physicians ( N = 151) read a description of a patient seeking advice on cancer screening. We manipulated the level of numeracy of the patient (low v. high v. unspecified) and measured physicians' risk communication, recommendation to the patient, understanding of screening statistics, and numeracy. Consistent with best practices, family physicians generally preferred to use visual aids rather than numbers when communicating information to a patient with low (v. high) numeracy. A substantial proportion of physicians (44%) offered high quality (i.e., complete and meaningful) risk communication to the patient. This was more often the case for physicians with higher (v. lower) numeracy who were more likely to mention mortality rates, OR=1.43 [1.10, 1.86], and harms from overdiagnosis, OR=1.44 [1.05, 1.98]. Physicians with higher numeracy were also more likely to understand that increased detection or survival rates do not demonstrate screening effectiveness, OR=1.61 [1.26, 2.06]. Most physicians know how to appropriately tailor risk communication for patients with low numeracy (i.e., with visual aids). However, physicians who themselves have low numeracy are likely to misunderstand the risks and unintentionally mislead patients by communicating incomplete information. High-quality risk communication and shared decision making can depend critically on factors that improve the risk literacy of physicians.

  19. Protection from erosion following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

    2006-01-01

    Erosion in the first year after a wildfire can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than the erosion from undisturbed forests. To mitigate potential postfire erosion, various erosion control treatments are applied on highly erodible areas with downstream resources in need of protection. Because postfire erosion rates generally decline by an order of magnitude for...

  20. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  1. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  2. The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management : Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruiten, Leon; Hartmann, T.

    2016-01-01

    The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from

  3. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (1) Nuclear safety for accident scenario and measures for fault movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Chiba, Go; Okamoto, Koji; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Yamazaki, Haruo; Konagai, Kazuo; Kamiya, Masanobu; Nagasawa, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Japan, as a frequent earthquake country, has a responsibility to resolve efficient measures to enhance nuclear safety, to continue utilizing the nuclear power, based on the risks and importance levels in the scientific and rational manner. In his paper describes how to evaluate the risk of faults movement by engineering approach. An open fruitful discussion by experts in the various area of earthquake, geology, geotechnical, civil, and a seismic design as well as other stakeholders such as academia professors, nuclear reactor engineers, regulators, and licensees. The Atomic Energy Society established an Investigation Committee on Development of Activity and Risk Evaluation Method for Faults by Engineering Approach (IC-DAREFEA) on October 1st, a 2014. The Investigation Committee utilizes the most advanced scientific and rational judgement, and continuous discussions and efforts in the global field, in order to collect and organize these knowledge and reflect the global standards and nuclear regulations, such as risk evaluation method for the faults movements and prevention of severe accidents, based on the accumulated database in the world, including Chuetsuoki Earthquake, North Nagano Earthquake and Kumamoto Earthquake. (author)

  4. Sports drink consumption and dental erosion among amateur runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Leonardo S; Veiga, Lais; Nery, Victor S; Nery, Caio C; Antunes, Lívia A

    2017-01-01

    This cross-sectional study assessed the prevalence and potential risk factors for dental erosion in amateur athletes at running events. After a sample calculation, 108 runners from the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were selected and examined for dental wear by a single trained and calibrated evaluator (kappa = 1.00). To identify risk factors, the runners were interviewed by using a standardized, semi-structured questionnaire. The average (SD) age of the runners was 34.2 (11.45), and the prevalence of dental erosion was 19.4%. Gastroesophageal reflux, running frequency per week, and time expended during competition were associated with dental erosion (P dental erosion was not significant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, dental erosion was not associated with use of isotonic drinks. However, frequency of exercise per week and gastroesophageal reflux were risk factors for dental erosion.

  5. Saliva and dental erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Afonso Rabelo Buzalaf

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Dental erosion is a multifactorial condition. The consideration of chemical, biological and behavioral factors is fundamental for its prevention and therapy. Among the biological factors, saliva is one of the most important parameters in the protection against erosive wear. Objective: This review discusses the role of salivary factors on the development of dental erosion. Material and Methods: A search was undertaken on MeDLINe website for papers from 1969 to 2010. The keywords used in the research were "saliva", "acquired pellicle", "salivary flow", "salivary buffering capacity" and "dental erosion". Inclusion of studies, data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken independently and in duplicate by two members of the review team. Disagreements were solved by discussion and consensus or by a third party. Results: Several characteristics and properties of saliva play an important role in dental erosion. Salivary clearance gradually eliminates the acids through swallowing and saliva presents buffering capacity causing neutralization and buffering of dietary acids. Salivary flow allows dilution of the acids. In addition, saliva is supersaturated with respect to tooth mineral, providing calcium, phosphate and fluoride necessary for remineralization after an erosive challenge. Furthermore, many proteins present in saliva and acquired pellicle play an important role in dental erosion. Conclusions: Saliva is the most important biological factor affecting the progression of dental erosion. Knowledge of its components and properties involved in this protective role can drive the development of preventive measures targeting to enhance its known beneficial effects.

  6. Scales and erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is a need to develop scale explicit understanding of erosion to overcome existing conceptual and methodological flaws in our modelling methods currently applied to understand the process of erosion, transport and deposition at the catchment scale. These models need to be based on a sound under...

  7. Saliva and dental erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzalaf, Marília Afonso Rabelo; Hannas, Angélicas Reis; Kato, Melissa Thiemi

    2012-01-01

    Dental erosion is a multifactorial condition. The consideration of chemical, biological and behavioral factors is fundamental for its prevention and therapy. Among the biological factors, saliva is one of the most important parameters in the protection against erosive wear. This review discusses the role of salivary factors on the development of dental erosion. A search was undertaken on MeDLINe website for papers from 1969 to 2010. The keywords used in the research were "saliva", "acquired pellicle", "salivary flow", "salivary buffering capacity" and "dental erosion". Inclusion of studies, data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken independently and in duplicate by two members of the review team. Disagreements were solved by discussion and consensus or by a third party. Several characteristics and properties of saliva play an important role in dental erosion. Salivary clearance gradually eliminates the acids through swallowing and saliva presents buffering capacity causing neutralization and buffering of dietary acids. Salivary flow allows dilution of the acids. In addition, saliva is supersaturated with respect to tooth mineral, providing calcium, phosphate and fluoride necessary for remineralization after an erosive challenge. Furthermore, many proteins present in saliva and acquired pellicle play an important role in dental erosion. Saliva is the most important biological factor affecting the progression of dental erosion. Knowledge of its components and properties involved in this protective role can drive the development of preventive measures targeting to enhance its known beneficial effects.

  8. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

    Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity, we suggest that appropriate planning measures should

  9. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  10. Results of extended plant tests using more realistic exposure scenarios for improving environmental risk assessment of veterinary pharmaceuticals

    OpenAIRE

    Richter, Elisabeth; Berkner, Silvia; Ebert, Ina; Förster, Bernhard; Graf, Nadin; Herrchen, Monika; Kuehnen, Ute; Römbke, Jörg; Simon, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Background Residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) enter the environment via application of manure onto agricultural areas where in particular antibiotics can cause phytotoxicity. Terrestrial plant tests according to OECD guideline 208 are part of the environmental risk assessment of VMPs. However, this standard approach might not be appropriate for VMPs which form non-extractable residues or transformation products in manure and manure-amended soil. Therefore, a new test design with...

  11. Numerical study of impact erosion of multiple solid particle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chao; Liu, Yonghong; Chen, Cheng; Qin, Jie; Ji, Renjie; Cai, Baoping

    2017-11-01

    Material erosion caused by continuous particle impingement during hydraulic fracturing results in significant economic loss and increased production risks. The erosion process is complex and has not been clearly explained through physical experiments. To address this problem, a multiple particle model in a 3D configuration was proposed to investigate the dynamic erosion process. This approach can significantly reduce experiment costs. The numerical model considered material damping and elastic-plastic material behavior of target material. The effects of impact parameters on erosion characteristics, such as plastic deformation, contact time, and energy loss rate, were investigated. Based on comprehensive studies, the dynamic erosion mechanism and geometry evolution of eroded crater was obtained. These findings can provide a detailed erosion process of target material and insights into the material erosion caused by multiple particle impingement.

  12. Scientific case studies in land-use driven soil erosion in the central United States: Why soil potential and risk concepts should be included in the principles of soil health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. Turner

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent improvements in overall soil health gained through conservation agriculture, which has become a global priority in agricultural systems, soil and water-related externalities (e.g., wind and water erosion continue to persist or worsen. Using an inductive, systems approach, we tested the hypothesis that such externalities persist due to expansion of cultivation onto areas unsuitable for sustained production. To test this hypothesis, a variety of data sources and analyses were used to uncover the land and water resource dynamics underlying noteworthy cases of soil erosion (either wind or water and hydrological effects (e.g., flooding, shifting hydrographs throughout the central United States. Given the evidence, we failed to reject the hypothesis that cultivation expansion is contributing to increased soil and water externalities, since significant increases in cultivation on soils with severe erosion limitations were observed everywhere the externalities were documented. We discuss the case study results in terms of land use incentives (e.g., policy, economic, and biophysical, developing concepts of soil security, and ways to utilize case studies such as those presented to better communicate the value of soil and water resource conservation. Incorporating the tenets of soil potential and soil risk into soil health evaluations and cultivation decision-making is needed to better match the soil resource with land use and help avoid more extreme soil and water-related externalities.

  13. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M

    2012-05-30

    To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Treatment effects associated with dark chocolate consumption derived from published meta-analyses were used to determine the absolute number of cardiovascular events with and without treatment. Costs associated with cardiovascular events and treatments were applied to determine the potential amount of funding required for dark chocolate therapy to be considered cost effective. Daily consumption of dark chocolate (polyphenol content equivalent to 100 g of dark chocolate) can reduce cardiovascular events by 85 (95% confidence interval 60 to 105) per 10,000 population treated over 10 years. $A40 (£25; €31; $42) could be cost effectively spent per person per year on prevention strategies using dark chocolate. These results assume 100% compliance and represent a best case scenario. The blood pressure and cholesterol lowering effects of dark chocolate consumption are beneficial in the prevention of cardiovascular events in a population with metabolic syndrome. Daily dark chocolate consumption could be an effective cardiovascular preventive strategy in this population.

  14. Predicting of soil erosion with regarding to rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suif, Zuliziana; Razak, Mohd Amirun Anis Ab; Ahmad, Nordila

    2018-02-01

    The soil along the hill and slope are wearing away due to erosion and it can take place due to occurrence of weak and heavy rainfall. The aim of this study is to predict the soil erosion degree in Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) area focused on two major factor which is soil erodibility and rainfall erosivity. Soil erodibility is the possibilities of soil to detach and carried away during rainfall and runoff. The "ROM" scale was used in this study to determine the degree of soil erodibility, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. As for rainfall erosivity, the erosive power caused by rainfall that cause soil loss. A daily rainfall data collected from January to April was analyzed by using ROSE index classification to identify the potential risk of soil erosion. The result shows that the soil erodibilty are moderate at MTD`s hill, high at behind of block Lestari and Landslide MTD hill, and critical at behind the mess cadet. While, the highest rainfall erosivity was recorded in March and April. Overall, this study would benefit the organization greatly in saving cost in landslide protection as relevant authorities can take early measures repairing the most affected area of soil erosion.

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

    2017-12-01

    Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the

  16. Abundance, zoonotic potential and risk factors of intestinal parasitism amongst dog and cat populations: The scenario of Crete, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostopoulou, Despoina; Claerebout, Edwin; Arvanitis, Dimitrios; Ligda, Panagiota; Voutzourakis, Nikolaos; Casaert, Stijn; Sotiraki, Smaragda

    2017-01-25

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the prevalence and infection intensity of intestinal parasites in different dog and cat populations in Crete, Greece, estimate the zoonotic risk and identify risk factors. Faecal samples from shelter, household and shepherd dogs and shelter and household cats were analyzed using sedimentation/flotation techniques. Giardia and Cryptosporidium were detected by a quantitative direct immunofluorescence assay (IFA). PCR and sequencing was performed to evaluate the zoonotic potential of Giardia and Cryptosporidium positive samples. Totals of 879 dog and 264 cat faecal samples were examined. In dogs, the overall prevalence was 25.2% (CI: 22.4-28.1) for Giardia spp.; 9.2% (CI: 7.3-11.1) for Ancylostoma/Uncinaria spp.; 7.6% (CI: 5.9-9.4) for Toxocara spp.; 5.9% (CI: 4.4-7.5) for Cryptosporidium spp.; 4.6% (CI: 3.2-5.9) for Cystoisospora spp.; 2.7% (CI: 1.7-3.8) for Toxascaris leonina; 1.7% (CI: 0.9-2.6) for Capillaria spp.; 0.8% (CI: 0.2-1.4) for taeniid eggs; 0.2% (CI: 0-0.5) for Dipylidium caninum; and 0.1% (CI: 0-0.3) for Strongyloides stercoralis. In cats, the prevalence was 20.5% (CI: 15.6-25.3) for Giardia spp.; 9.5% (CI: 5.9-13.0) for Cystoisospora spp.; 8.3% (CI: 5.0-11.7) for Toxocara spp.; 7.6% (CI: 4.4-10.8) for Ancylostoma/Uncinaria spp.; 6.8% (CI: 3.8-9.9) for Cryptosporidium spp.; 4.2% (CI: 1.8-6.6) for Capillaria spp.; 0.8% (CI: 0-1.8) for taeniid eggs; and 0.4% (CI: 0-1.1) for Hammondia/Toxoplasma. Concerning the risk factors evaluated, there was a negative association between age and Giardia infection and between age and T. leonina infection intensity for dogs. Sequencing results revealed the presence of mainly animal-specific G. duodenalis assemblages C and D in dogs and assemblages F, C and BIV-like in cats, with only a limited number of (co-)infections with assemblage A. As for Cryptosporidium, the dog-specific C. canis and the pig-specific C. scrofarum were detected in dogs and the cat-specific C. felis was

  17. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Matthew Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Craig A. [Integral Consulting Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Permafrost-dominated coastlines in the Arctic are rapidly disappearing. Arctic coastal erosion rates in the United States have doubled since the middle of the twentieth century and appear to be accelerating. Positive erosion trends have been observed for highly-variable geomorphic conditions across the entire Arctic, suggesting a major (human-timescale) shift in coastal landscape evolution. Unfortunately, irreversible coastal land loss in this region poses a threat to native, industrial, scientific, and military communities. The Arctic coastline is vast, spanning more than 100,000 km across eight nations, ten percent of which is overseen by the United States. Much of area is inaccessible by all-season roads. People and infrastructure, therefore, are commonly located near the coast. The impact of the Arctic coastal erosion problem is widespread. Homes are being lost. Residents are being dispersed and their villages relocated. Shoreline fuel storage and delivery systems are at greater risk. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) operate research facilities along some of the most rapidly eroding sections of coast in the world. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is struggling to fortify coastal radar sites, operated to ensure national sovereignty in the air, against the erosion problem. Rapid alterations to the Arctic coastline are facilitated by oceanographic and geomorphic perturbations associated with climate change. Sea ice extent is declining, sea level is rising, sea water temperature is increasing, and permafrost state is changing. The polar orientation of the Arctic exacerbates the magnitude and rate of the environmental forcings that facilitate coastal land area loss. The fundamental mechanics of these processes are understood; their non-linear combination poses an extreme hazard. Tools to accurately predict Arctic coastal erosion do not exist. To obtain an accurate predictive model, a coupling of the influences of

  18. Protection From Dental Erosion: All Fluorides are Not Equal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faller, Robert V; Noble, Warden H

    2018-03-01

    All fluoride sources help strengthen teeth against bacterial acids that cause caries. However, excessive exposure to dietary acids, which can result in dental erosion, presents a more aggressive level of challenge compared to caries. Despite the fact that almost all toothpastes contain fluoride, both the incidence and prevalence of dental erosion appear to be on the rise. This article: (1) describes key differences between caries and dental erosion and the ability of different fluoride sources to help prevent erosion; (2) discusses the importance of the evaluation of patients for dental erosion at the earliest stages using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination scoring system to help assess and educate patients; and (3) provides evidence-based information for making specific recommendations to patients with dental erosion. The objective of this article is to assess the comparative ability of fluoride agents to protect against dental erosion. Though all fluorides are able to help strengthen teeth against cariogenic acids, not all available sources of fluoride provide the same level of erosion protection. Daily use of a stabilized stannous fluoride dentifrice has been shown to provide the most effective means of protecting teeth against the increasing risk of dental erosion and erosive tooth wear.

  19. Potential impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity and water availability in China in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer Moore; Corey Bunch; Jian Ni

    2002-01-01

    Soil erosion and water shortages threaten China’s social and economic development in the 21st century. This paper examines how projected climate change could affect soil erosion and water availability across China. We used both historical climate data (1961-1980) and the UKMO Hadley3 climate scenario (1960-2099) to drive regional hydrology and soil erosivity models....

  20. An assessment of potential risk resulting from a maximum credible accident scenario at the proposed explosive waste storage facility (EWSF)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuki, K.; Harrach, R.; Berger, R.

    1992-10-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to build, permit, and operate a storage facility for explosive wastes at LLNL's Explosive Test Site, Site 300. The facility would consist of four existing magazines, four new magazettes (small concrete vaults), and a new prefabricated metal building. Ash from on-site treatment of explosive waste would also be stored in the prefabricated metal building prior to sampling analysis, and shipment. The magazettes would be installed at each magazine-and would provide segregated storage for explosive waste types including detonators, actuators, and other initiating devices. The proposed facility would be used to store explosive wastes generated by the Hydrotest and Explosive Development Programs at LLNL prior to treatment on-site or shipment to permitted, commercial, off-site treatment facilities. Explosive wastes to be stored in the proposed facility represent a full spectrum of Department of Energy (DOE) and LLNL explosive wastes. This document identifies and evaluates the risk to human health and the environment associated with the operation of the proposed EWSF

  1. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change on soil erosion? An assessment from winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgen D. Garbrecht

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With the need to increase crop production to meet the needs of a growing population, protecting the productivity of our soil resource is essential. However, conservationists are concerned that conservation practices that were effective in the past may no longer be effective in the future under projected climate change. In winter wheat cropland in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S., increased precipitation intensity and increased aridity associated with warmer temperatures may pose increased risks of soil erosion from vulnerable soils and landscapes. This investigation was undertaken to determine which conservation practices would be necessary and sufficient to hold annual soil erosion by water under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario at or below the present soil erosion levels. Advances in and benefits of agricultural soil and water conservation over the last century in the United States are briefly reviewed, and challenges and climate uncertainties confronting resource conservation in this century are addressed. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP computer model was used to estimate future soil erosion by water from winter wheat cropland in Central Oklahoma and for 10 projected climates and 7 alternative conservation practices. A comparison with soil erosion values under current climate conditions and conventional tillage operations showed that, on average, a switch from conventional to conservation tillage would be sufficient to offset the average increase in soil erosion by water under most projected climates. More effective conservation practices, such as conservation tillage with a summer cover crop would be required to control soil erosion associated with the most severe climate projections. It was concluded that a broad range of conservation tools are available to agriculture to offset projected future increases in soil erosion by water even under assumed worst case climate change scenarios in Central Oklahoma. The problem

  2. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  3. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  4. A Dental Hygienist's and Therapist's Guide to the Management of Tooth Erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariyanayagam, Yana

    2016-08-01

    Dental care professionals can support patients to prevent and manage tooth erosion. The role of the dentist is to restore the structure and function of teeth damaged by acid erosion, while the role of the dental hygienist therapist is to work alongside the dentist to help manage and reduce the risk of tooth erosion. This article will highlight how the dental hygienist or therapist can identify tooth erosion. It will describe the features of tooth erosion and outline the causes. This article will discuss preventative care options for patients who are at risk of tooth erosion, including specific oral hygiene instructions, fluoride advice and use of other dental products.

  5. Measurement of erosion: Is it possible?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stroosnijder, L.

    2005-01-01

    Reasons for erosion measurements are: (1) to determine the environmental impact of erosion and conservation practices, (2) scientific erosion research; (3) development and evaluation of erosion control technology; (4) development of erosion prediction technology and (5) allocation of conservation

  6. Numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion during Hole Erosion Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Mercier, F.; Bonelli, S.; Golay, F.; Anselmet, F.; Philippe, P.; Borghi, R.

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on the numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion of a cohesive soil by a turbulent flow in axisymmetrical geometry, with application to the Hole Erosion Test (HET). The numerical model is based on adaptive remeshing of the water/soil interface to ensure accurate description of the mechanical phenomena occurring near the soil/water interface. The erosion law governing the interface motion is based on two erosion parameters: the critical shear stress and the erosion co...

  7. Dental erosion in groups of Yemeni children and adolescents and the modification of an erosion partial recording system

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Ashtal, Amin Mohsen Saleh; Johansson, Anders; Ridwaan, Omar; Johansson, Ann-Katrin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Dental erosion is a multifactorial oral health problem with an increasing prevalence among children and adolescents in many countries. Awareness of the condition among lay people is generally lacking, and methods for its clinical grading also need further improvements. Aim: The aims of this thesis was to investigate various aspects of dental erosion including prevalence and risk indicators, to evaluate the recording system used, and to assess the awareness of dental erosion in ...

  8. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  9. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  10. Ultrasound-detected bone erosion is a relapse risk factor after discontinuation of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis whose ultrasound power Doppler synovitis activity and clinical disease activity are well controlled.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawashiri, Shin-Ya; Fujikawa, Keita; Nishino, Ayako; Okada, Akitomo; Aramaki, Toshiyuki; Shimizu, Toshimasa; Umeda, Masataka; Fukui, Shoichi; Suzuki, Takahisa; Koga, Tomohiro; Iwamoto, Naoki; Ichinose, Kunihiro; Tamai, Mami; Mizokami, Akinari; Nakamura, Hideki; Origuchi, Tomoki; Ueki, Yukitaka; Aoyagi, Kiyoshi; Maeda, Takahiro; Kawakami, Atsushi

    2017-05-25

    In the present study, we explored the risk factors for relapse after discontinuation of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) whose ultrasound power Doppler (PD) synovitis activity and clinical disease activity were well controlled. In this observational study in clinical practice, the inclusion criteria were based on ultrasound disease activity and clinical disease activity, set as low or remission (Disease Activity Score in 28 joints based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate Ultrasound was performed in 22 joints of bilateral hands at discontinuation for evaluating synovitis severity and presence of bone erosion. Patients with a maximum PD score ≤1 in each joint were enrolled. Forty patients with RA were consecutively recruited (November 2010-March 2015) and discontinued bDMARD therapy. Variables at the initiation and discontinuation of bDMARD therapy that were predictive of relapse during the 12 months after discontinuation were assessed. The median patient age was 54.5 years, and the median disease duration was 3.5 years. Nineteen (47.5%) patients relapsed during the 12 months after the discontinuation of bDMARD therapy. Logistic regression analysis revealed that only the presence of bone erosion detected by ultrasound at discontinuation was predictive of relapse (OR 8.35, 95% CI 1.78-53.2, p = 0.006). No clinical characteristics or serologic biomarkers were significantly different between the relapse and nonrelapse patients. The ultrasound synovitis scores did not differ significantly between the groups. Our findings are the first evidence that ultrasound bone erosion may be a relapse risk factor after the discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in patients with RA whose PD synovitis activity and clinical disease activity are well controlled.

  11. Soil erosion evolution and spatial correlation analysis in a typical karst geomorphology using RUSLE with GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Cheng; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Li, Yangbing; Tian, Yichao; Li, Yue; Wu, Luhua; Luo, Guangjie

    2017-07-01

    Although some scholars have studied soil erosion in karst landforms, analyses of the spatial and temporal evolution of soil erosion and correlation analyses with spatial elements have been insufficient. The lack of research has led to an inaccurate assessment of environmental effects, especially in the mountainous area of Wuling in China. Soil erosion and rocky desertification in this area influence the survival and sustainability of a population of 0.22 billion people. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of soil erosion and explores its relationship with rocky desertification using GIS technology and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE). Furthermore, this paper analyzes the relationship between soil erosion and major natural elements in southern China. The results are as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2013, the proportion of the area experiencing micro-erosion and mild erosion was at increasing risk in contrast to areas where moderate and high erosion are decreasing. The area changes in this time sequence reflect moderate to high levels of erosion tending to convert into micro-erosion and mild erosion. (2) The soil erosion area on the slope, at 15-35°, accounted for 60.59 % of the total erosion area, and the corresponding soil erosion accounted for 40.44 %. (3) The annual erosion rate in the karst region decreased much faster than in the non-karst region. Soil erosion in all of the rock outcrop areas indicates an improving trend, and dynamic changes in soil erosion significantly differ among the various lithological distribution belts. (4) The soil erosion rate decreased in the rocky desertification regions, to below moderate levels, but increased in the severe rocky desertification areas. The temporal and spatial variations in soil erosion gradually decreased in the study area. Differences in the spatial distribution between lithology and rocky desertification induced extensive soil loss. As rocky desertification became worse, the erosion

  12. Effectiveness of the GAEC standard of cross compliance retain terraces on soil erosion control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Bazzoffi

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The GAEC standard retain terraces of cross compliance prohibits farmers the elimination of existing terraces, with the aim to ensure the protection of soil from erosion. In the Italian literature there are not field studies to quantify the effects of the elimination or degradation of terraces on soil erosion. Therefore, the modeling approach was chosen and applied in a scenario analysis to evaluate increasing levels of degradation of stone wall terraces. The study was conducted on two sample areas: Lamole (700.8 ha, Tuscany and Costaviola (764.73 ha, Calabria with contrasting landscapes. The Universal Soil Loss Equation model (USLE was applied in the comparative assessment of the soil erosion risk (Mg . ha-1 . yr-1, by simulating five increasing intensity of terrace degradation, respectively: conserved partially damaged, very damaged, partially removed, removed, each of which corresponding to different values of the indexes of verification in case of infringement to GAEC standard provided for by the AGEA rules which have come into force since December 2009 (Agency for Agricultural Payments. To growing intensity of degradation, a progressive loss of efficacy of terraces was attributed by increasing the values of the LS factor (length and slope of USLE in relation with the local modification of the length and steepness of the slope between adjacent terraces. Basically, it was simulated the gradual return to the natural morphology of the slope. The results of the analysis showed a significant increase in erosion in relationship with increasing degradation of terraces. Furthermore, it is possible to conclude that the GAEC standard retain terraces is very effective with regard to the primary objective of reducing erosion. A further statistical analysis was performed to test the protective value of terraces against soil erosion in areas where agriculture was abandoned. The analysis was carried out by comparing the specific risk of erosion (Mg . ha-1

  13. Mechanisms of erosion of atherosclerotic plaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quillard, Thibaut; Franck, Grégory; Mawson, Thomas; Folco, Eduardo; Libby, Peter

    2017-10-01

    The present review explores the mechanisms of superficial intimal erosion, a common cause of thrombotic complications of atherosclerosis. Human coronary artery atheroma that give rise to thrombosis because of erosion differ diametrically from those associated with fibrous cap rupture. Eroded lesions characteristically contain few inflammatory cells, abundant extracellular matrix, and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Innate immune mechanisms such as engagement of Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) on cultured endothelial cells can impair their viability, attachment, and ability to recover a wound. Hyaluronan fragments may serve as endogenous TLR2 ligands. Mouse experiments demonstrate that flow disturbance in arteries with neointimas tailored to resemble features of human eroded plaques disturbs endothelial cell barrier function, impairs endothelial cell viability, recruits neutrophils, and provokes endothelial cells desquamation, NET formation, and thrombosis in a TLR2-dependent manner. Mechanisms of erosion have received much less attention than those that provoke plaque rupture. Intensive statin treatment changes the characteristic of plaques that render them less susceptible to rupture. Thus, erosion may contribute importantly to the current residual burden of risk. Understanding the mechanisms of erosion may inform the development and deployment of novel therapies to combat the remaining atherothrombotic risk in the statin era.

  14. Coastal Erosion Control Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, V.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal erosion is bad because the ecosystem there will be washed away and the animals could drown or be displaced and have to adapt to a new ecosystem that they are not prepared for. I'm interested in this problem because if there aren't beaches when I grow up I won't be able to do the things I would really like to do. I would like to be a marine biologist. Secondly, I don't want to see beach houses washed away. I would like to see people live in harmony with their environment. So, to study ways in which to preserve beaches I will make and use models that test different erosion controls. Two different ideas for erosion control I tested are using seaweed or a rock berm. I think the rock berm will work better than the model of seaweed because the seaweed is under water and the waves can carry the sand over the seaweed, and the rock berm will work better because the rocks will help break the waves up before they reach the shore and the waves can not carry the sand over the rocks that are above the water. To investigate this I got a container to use to model the Gulf of Mexico coastline. I performed several test runs using sand and water in the container to mimic the beach and waves from the Gulf of Mexico hitting the shoreline. I did three trials for the control (no erosion control), seaweed and a rock berm. Rock berms are a border of a raised area of rock. The model for seaweed that I used was plastic shopping bags cut into strips and glued to the bottom of my container to mimic seaweed. My results were that the control had the most erosion which ranged from 2.75 - 3 inches over 3 trials. The seaweed was a little better than the control but was very variable and ranged from 1.5 - 3 inches over 3 trials. The rock berm worked the best out of all at controlling erosion with erosion ranging from 1.5 - 2 inches. My hypothesis was correct because the rock berm did best to control erosion compared to the control which had no erosion control and the model with seaweed.

  15. Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

    2013-11-01

    This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

  16. Features of bacterial-mycotic dysbiosis in women with high oncogenic risk human papillomavirus suffering from cervicitis, erosion and cervical dysplasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Kasi Мae Ghazi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim. A possible relationship between the uterine neck dysplasia and vaginal microbiocenosis has been subject for broad discussions for many years. Hence, research devoted to the study of the problem of cervical lesions, in particular the progression of cervicitis, cervical erosion and cervical dysplasia depending on the ratio of obligate, opportunistic pathogenic and pathogenic microorganisms is of particular importance and relevance today. Methods and results. To address the problem, we have conducted a complete examination and studied the peculiarities of the opportunistic and pathogenic microfl ora spectrum in the urogenital tract microbiota in case of 120 female patients of reproductive age suffering from cervicitis, cervical erosion or cervical dysplasia on the background of Papilloma Viral Infection. The control group included 30 apparently healthy women. Conclusion. It was set, that dysbiosis forms in 52,1% women, in this 38,8% patients have moderate and 13,3% patients have severe dysbiosis. Anaerobic type of dysbiosis was verifi ed in 22,9% women and in 29,2% it was mixed aerobic-anaerobic type. Gardnerella vaginalis/Prevotella bivia/Porphiromonas spp., Eubacterium spp., Megasphaera spp./Veilonella spp./Dialister spp., Peptostreptococcus spp. were prevalent urogenital microbiota. Ureaplasma (urealiticum parva was verifi ed in 23,8% patients and diagnostically meaningful it was in 20,0%, Candida spp. was 64,6 and 54,6% accordingly.

  17. Erosive Lichen Planus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauskar, Melissa

    2017-09-01

    Lichen planus is an inflammatory mucocutaneous condition with a myriad of clinical manifestations. There are 3 forms of lichen planus that effect the vulva: papulosquamous, hypertrophic, and erosive. Erosive lichen planus can progress to vulvar scaring, vaginal stenosis, and squamous cell carcinoma; these long-term sequelae cause sexual distress, depression, and decreased quality of life for patients. Diagnosis is often delayed because of patient embarrassment or clinician misdiagnosis. Early recognition and treatment is essential to decreasing the morbidity of this condition. Multimodal treatment, along with a multidisciplinary approach, will improve outcomes and further clinical advances in studying this condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Bentonite erosion. Laboratory studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Mats (Div. of Nuclear Chemistry, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden), School of Chemical Science and Engineering)

    2009-11-15

    This report covers the laboratory studies that have been performed at Nuclear Chemistry, KTH in the project 'Bentonite Erosion'. Many of the experiments in this report were performed to support the work of the modelling group and were often relatively simple. One of the experiment series was performed to see the impact of gravity and concentration of mono- and di-valent cations. A clay suspension was prepared in a test tube. A net was placed in contact with the suspension, the test tube was filled with solutions of different concentrations and the system was left overnight to settle. The tube was then turned upside down and the behaviour was visually observed. Either the clay suspension fell through the net or stayed on top. By using this method surprisingly sharp determinations of the Critical Coagulation (Flocculation) Concentration (CCC/CFC) could be made. The CCC/CFC of Ca2+ was for sodium montmorillonite determined to be between 1 and 2 mM. An artificial fracture was manufactured in order to simulate the real case scenario. The set-up was two Plexiglas slabs separated by 1 mm thick spacers with a bentonite container at one side of the fracture. Water was pumped with a very low flow rate perpendicular to bentonite container and the water exiting the fracture was sampled and analyzed for colloid content. The bentonite used was treated in different ways. In the first experiment a relatively montmorillonite rich clay was used while in the second bentonite where only the readily soluble minerals had been removed was used. Since Plexiglas was used it was possible to visually observe the bentonite dispersing into the fracture. After the compacted bentonite (1,000 kg/m3) had been water saturated the clay had expanded some 12 mm out into the fracture. As the experiment progressed the clay expanded more out into the fracture and seemed to fractionate in two different phases with less material in the outmost phase. A dark rim which was later analyzed to contain

  19. Bentonite erosion - Laboratory studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansson, Mats

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Bentonite clay is proposed as buffer material in the KBS-3 concept of storing spent nuclear fuel. Since the clay is plastic it will protect the canisters containing the spent fuel from movements in the rock. Furthermore, the clay will expand when taking up water, become very compact and hence limit the transport of solutes to and from the canister to only diffusion. The chemical stability of the bentonite barrier is of vital importance. If much material would be lost the barrier will lose its functions. As a side effect, lots of colloids will be released which may facilitate radionuclide transport in case of a breach in the canister. There are scenarios where during an ice age fresh melt water may penetrate down to repository depths with relatively high flow rates and not mix with older waters of high salinity. Under such conditions bentonite colloids will be more stable and there is a possibility that the bentonite buffer would start to disperse and bentonite colloids be carried away by the passing water. This work is a part of a larger project called Bentonite Erosion, initiated and supported by SKB. In this work several minor experiments have been performed in order to investigate the influence of for instance di-valent cations, gravity, etc. on the dispersion behaviour of bentonite and/or montmorillonite. A bigger experiment where the real situation was simulated using an artificial fracture was conducted. Two Plexiglas slabs were placed on top of each other, separated by plastic spacers. Bentonite was placed in a container in contact with a fracture. The bentonite was water saturated before deionized water was pumped through the fracture. The evolution of the bentonite profile in the fracture was followed visually. The eluate was collected in five different slots at the outlet side and analyzed for colloid concentration employing Photon Correlation Spectroscopy (PCS) and a Single Particle Counter (SPC). Some

  20. Mesh erosion after abdominal sacrocolpopexy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, N; Walsh, P M; Roat, T W; Karram, M M

    1998-12-01

    To report our experience with erosion of permanent suture or mesh material after abdominal sacrocolpopexy. A retrospective chart review was performed to identify patients who underwent sacrocolpopexy by the same surgeon over 8 years. Demographic data, operative notes, hospital records, and office charts were reviewed after sacrocolpopexy. Patients with erosion of either suture or mesh were treated initially with conservative therapy followed by surgical intervention as required. Fifty-seven patients underwent sacrocolpopexy using synthetic mesh during the study period. The mean (range) postoperative follow-up was 19.9 (1.3-50) months. Seven patients (12%) had erosions after abdominal sacrocolpopexy with two suture erosions and five mesh erosions. Patients with suture erosion were asymptomatic compared with patients with mesh erosion, who presented with vaginal bleeding or discharge. The mean (+/-standard deviation) time to erosion was 14.0+/-7.7 (range 4-24) months. Both patients with suture erosion were treated conservatively with estrogen cream. All five patients with mesh erosion required transvaginal removal of the mesh. Mesh erosion can follow abdominal sacrocolpopexy over a long time, and usually presents as vaginal bleeding or discharge. Although patients with suture erosion can be managed successfully with conservative treatment, patients with mesh erosion require surgical intervention. Transvaginal removal of the mesh with vaginal advancement appears to be an effective treatment in patients failing conservative management.

  1. Erosion of dust aggregates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seizinger, A.; Krijt, S.; Kley, W.

    2013-01-01

    Aims: The aim of this work is to gain a deeper insight into how much different aggregate types are affected by erosion. Especially, it is important to study the influence of the velocity of the impacting projectiles. We also want to provide models for dust growth in protoplanetary disks with simple

  2. Hydrology and soil erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard J. Lane; Mary R. Kidwell

    2003-01-01

    We review research on surface water hydrology and soil erosion at the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER). Almost all of the research was associated with eight small experimental watersheds established from 1974 to 1975 and operated until the present. Analysis of climatic features of the SRER supports extending research findings from the SRER to broad areas of the...

  3. Bentonite erosion. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birgersson, Martin; Boergesson, Lennart; Hedstroem, Magnus; Karnland, Ola; Nilsson, Ulf (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden))

    2009-12-15

    Low saline water may reach KBS-3 repository depth, e.g. during periods of glaciation. Under such aqueous conditions, the montmorillonite part of the bentonite buffer might transform into a sol and thereby be transported away with flowing water in fractures. The primary aim with this report is to improve the understanding of the basic principles for this possible montmorillonite particle release. The report includes experimental and theoretical work performed at Clay Technology. Natural bentonite and ion-exchanged purified montmorillonite from three different geographical origins, Wyoming (U.S.), Milos (Greece) and Kutch (India) have been studied. Experimental and/or theoretical investigations have been performed with respect to: - Free swelling ability; - Rheological properties; - Rate of bentonite loss into fractures; - Filtering; - Ion exchange; - Sol formation ability; - Ion diffusion; - Mass loss due to erosion. The performed erosion experiments show that erosion does not occur in a mixed calcium/sodium montmorillonite with at least 20% calcium in exchange positions, when the external solution contains above 4 mM charge equivalents. This result is in agreement with the presented conceptual view of sol formation and measured equilibrium properties in mixed calcium/sodium montmorillonite. The findings imply that the buffer will be stable for non-glacial conditions. However, erosion due to sol formation cannot be ruled out for glacial conditions.

  4. Dune erosion above revetments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.

    2012-01-01

    In a situation with a narrow dune, the dune base can be protected with a revetment to reduce dune erosion during extreme events. To quantify the effects of a revetment on storm impact, the functionality of the numerical storm impact model XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009) is extended to account for the

  5. Bentonite erosion. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birgersson, Martin; Boergesson, Lennart; Hedstroem, Magnus; Karnland, Ola; Nilsson, Ulf

    2009-12-01

    Low saline water may reach KBS-3 repository depth, e.g. during periods of glaciation. Under such aqueous conditions, the montmorillonite part of the bentonite buffer might transform into a sol and thereby be transported away with flowing water in fractures. The primary aim with this report is to improve the understanding of the basic principles for this possible montmorillonite particle release. The report includes experimental and theoretical work performed at Clay Technology. Natural bentonite and ion-exchanged purified montmorillonite from three different geographical origins, Wyoming (U.S.), Milos (Greece) and Kutch (India) have been studied. Experimental and/or theoretical investigations have been performed with respect to: - Free swelling ability; - Rheological properties; - Rate of bentonite loss into fractures; - Filtering; - Ion exchange; - Sol formation ability; - Ion diffusion; - Mass loss due to erosion. The performed erosion experiments show that erosion does not occur in a mixed calcium/sodium montmorillonite with at least 20% calcium in exchange positions, when the external solution contains above 4 mM charge equivalents. This result is in agreement with the presented conceptual view of sol formation and measured equilibrium properties in mixed calcium/sodium montmorillonite. The findings imply that the buffer will be stable for non-glacial conditions. However, erosion due to sol formation cannot be ruled out for glacial conditions.

  6. Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in Central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Martínez-Santiago

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although water-eroded soil (WES resulting from human activities has been recognized as the leading global cause of land degradation, the soil erosion risks from climate change are not clear. Studies have reported that WES is the second most significant cause of soil loss in Mexico, and its future trajectory has not been sufficiently evaluated. The aims of this study are to 1 determine the impacts of climate change on WES and its distribution for the State of Aguascalientes, Mexico, and to 2 compare the present and future soil loss rates for the study unit (SU. The State of Aguascalientes is located in the “Region del Bajio.” The impact of climate change on WES was evaluated using the near-future divided world scenario (A2 presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 18 weather stations were downscaled to model historic laminar water erosion (HLWE and changes therein in the A2 near-future scenario for 2010–2039 (LWEScA2. Due to future changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR levels, a change in the LWEScA2 of between 1.6 and 8.9% could result in average soil losses up to 475.4 t ha-1 yr-1, representing a loss of slightly more than a 30-mm layer of mountain soil per year. The risk zones, classified as class 4 for LWE, are located to western of the State in part of municipalities of Calvillo, Jesus María, San José de Gracia y Cosio, where there are typical hills and falls with soil very sensitive to rain erosion.

  7. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Emission Scenario Document for Product Type 2: Private and public health area disinfectants and other biocidal products (sanitary and medical sector)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    This report is produced in the framework of EUBEES (EU working group on Gathering, Review and Development of Environmental Emission Scenarios for Biocides). It contains descriptions of the specific applications mentioned in the title and the accompanying emission scenarios. Where appropriate

  8. Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall erosivity in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma, X.; Noordwijk, van M.; Xu, J.; Lu, X.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change can modify rainfall patterns, leading to more extremes with associated erosion events. Rainfall erosivity, or the R-factor based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), indicates the potential water erosion risk and it plays an important role in water and soil

  9. Categorization of erosion control matting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-29

    Erosion control is a critical aspect of any Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) : construction project, with the extreme negative impacts of high sediment loads in natural : waterways having been well documented. A variety of erosion control ...

  10. Water erosion of dystrophic Red Latosols (Oxisols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim Ernesto Bernardes Ayer

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In their natural state, Latosols (Oxisols present great stability and resistance to erosion, being the most abundant and used soils for farming and cattle raising activities in southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. However, along the last one hundred years, they have been submitted to intensive cultivation and managements which favor water erosion. This study aimed to estimate the water erosion rates of dystrophic Red Latosols from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, compared with the soil loss tolerance limits, and assess the impact on water erosion of the managements more common in the region, by alternative conservation management simulation. Soil loss tolerance limits ranged from 8.94 Mg ha-1 year-1 to 9.99 Mg ha-1 year-1, with the study area presenting a susceptibility of soil loss of 23.86 Mg year-1, with an average rate of 8.40 Mg ha-1 year-1, corresponding to 34.80 % of the area with values above the soil loss tolerance limit. The biggest annual losses occur in areas with use and management of eucalyptus grown downhill (30.67 Mg ha-1 year-1 and pasture under continuous occupancy (11.10 Mg ha-1 year-1. However, when the average loss per type of use is considered, the areas more susceptible to water erosion are those with potato and eucalyptus crops, grown downhill, and those in bare soil. Nevertheless, in the simulated conservation management scenario, the average losses would be drastically reduced (8.40 Mg ha-1 year-1 to 2.84 Mg ha-1 year-1 and only 4.00 % of the area with soil loss would remain above the tolerance limits.

  11. Can control of soil erosion mitigate water pollution by sediments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickson, R J

    2014-01-15

    The detrimental impact of sediment and associated pollutants on water quality is widely acknowledged, with many watercourses in the UK failing to meet the standard of 'good ecological status'. Catchment sediment budgets show that hill slope erosion processes can be significant sources of waterborne sediment, with rates of erosion likely to increase given predicted future weather patterns. However, linking on-site erosion rates with off-site impacts is complicated because of the limited data on soil erosion rates in the UK and the dynamic nature of the source-pathway-receptor continuum over space and time. Even so, soil erosion control measures are designed to reduce sediment production (source) and mobilisation/transport (pathway) on hill slopes, with consequent mitigation of pollution incidents in watercourses (receptors). The purpose of this paper is to review the scientific evidence of the effectiveness of erosion control measures used in the UK to reduce sediment loads of hill slope origin in watercourses. Although over 73 soil erosion mitigation measures have been identified from the literature, empirical data on erosion control effectiveness are limited. Baseline comparisons for the 18 measures where data do exist reveal erosion control effectiveness is highly variable over time and between study locations. Given the limitations of the evidence base in terms of geographical coverage and duration of monitoring, performance of the different measures cannot be extrapolated to other areas. This uncertainty in effectiveness has implications for implementing erosion/sediment risk reduction policies, where quantified targets are stipulated, as is the case in the EU Freshwater Fish and draft Soil Framework Directives. Also, demonstrating technical effectiveness of erosion control measures alone will not encourage uptake by land managers: quantifying the costs and benefits of adopting erosion mitigation is equally important, but these are uncertain and difficult to

  12. Erosion waves: Transverse instabilities and fingering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloggi, F.; Lanuza, J.; Andreotti, B.; Clément, E.

    2006-09-01

    Two laboratory scale experiments of dry and underwater avalanches of non-cohesive granular materials are investigated. We trigger solitary waves and study the conditions under which the front is transversally stable. We show the existence of a linear instability followed by a coarsening dynamics and finally the onset of a fingering pattern. Due to the different operating conditions, both experiments strongly differ by the spatial and time scales involved. Nevertheless, the quantitative agreement between the stability diagram, the wavelengths selected and the avalanche morphology suggest a common scenario for an erosion/deposition process.

  13. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  14. Evaluating the new soil erosion map of Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltner, István; Centeri, Csaba; Takács, Katalin; Pirkó, Béla; Koós, Sándor; László, Péter; Pásztor, László

    2017-04-01

    With growing concerns on the effects of climate change and land use practices on our soil resources, soil erosion by water is becoming a significant issue internationally. Since the 1964 publication of the first soil erosion map of Hungary, there have been several attempts to provide a countrywide assessment of erosion susceptibility. However, there has been no up-to-date map produced in the last decade. In 2016, a new, 1:100 000 scale soil erosion map was published, based on available soil, elevation, land use and meteorological data for the extremely wet year of 2010. The map utilized combined outputs for two spatially explicit methods: the widely used empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the process-based Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) models. The present study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the model results. In lieu of available national monitoring data, information from other sources were used. The Soil Degradation Subsystem (TDR) of the National Environmental Information System (OKIR) is a digital database based on a soil survey and farm dairy data collected from representative farms in Hungary. During the survey all kind of degradation forms - including soil erosion - were considered. Agricultural and demographic data was obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Data from an interview-based survey was also used in an attempt to assess public awareness of soil erosion risks. Point-based evaluation of the model results was complemented with cross-regional assessment of soil erosion estimates. This, combined with available demographic information provides us with an opportunity to address soil erosion on a community level, with the identification of regions with the highest risk of being affected by soil erosion.

  15. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  16. Modelling Soil Erosion in the Densu River Basin Using RUSLE and GIS Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashiagbori, G; Forkuo, E K; Laari, P; Aabeyir, R

    2014-07-01

    Soil erosion involves detachment and transport of soil particles from top soil layers, degrading soil quality and reducing the productivity of affected lands. Soil eroded from the upland catchment causes depletion of fertile agricultural land and the resulting sediment deposited at the river networks creates river morphological change and reservoir sedimentation problems. However, land managers and policy makers are more interested in the spatial distribution of soil erosion risk than in absolute values of soil erosion loss. The aim of this paper is to model the spatial distribution of soil erosion in Densu River Basin of Ghana using RUSLE and GIS tools and to use the model to explore the relationship between erosion susceptibility, slope and land use/land cover (LULC) in the Basin. The rainfall map, digital elevation model, soil type map, and land cover map, were input data in the soil erosion model developed. This model was then categorized into four different erosion risk classes. The developed soil erosion map was then overlaid with the slope and LULC maps of the study area to explore their effects on erosion susceptibility of the soil in the Densu River Basin. The Model, predicted 88% of the basin as low erosion risk and 6% as moderate erosion risk, 3% as high erosion risk and 3% as severe risk. The high and severe erosion areas were distributed mainly within the areas of high slope gradient and also sections of the moderate forest LULC class. Also, the areas within the moderate forest LULC class found to have high erosion risk, had an intersecting high erodibility soil group.

  17. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  18. Dental Erosion in Children with Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira, Patricia Alves Drummond; Paiva, Saul Martins; De Abreu, Mauro Henrique Nogueira Guimarães; Auad, Sheyla Márcia

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) on dental erosion (DE) in children and analyze the association between dental erosion and diet, oral hygiene, and sociodemographic characteristics. This case-control study encompassed 43 two- to 14-year-olds diagnosed positive for GERD by the 24-hour pH monitoring, paired by age group with 136 healthy controls, in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. DE was assessed by one calibrated examiner using the O'Sullivan index. A questionnaire was self-administered by parents collecting information regarding sociodemographics, oral hygiene, and dietary habits. Dental erosion experience was compared between the groups, and a stratified analysis was performed (PDental erosion was diagnosed in 10.6 percent (N equals 19) of all the children; 25.6 percent (N equals 11) of GERD children and 5.9 percent (N equals eight) of children without GERD, P=0.001). Dental erosion was not associated with dietary consumption or sociodemographic characteristics in both groups (P≥0.05). Children who used adult toothpaste had a 5.79 higher chance of having dental erosion in the group with GERD. Children diagnosed with gastroesophageal reflux disease were at an increased risk of having dental erosion when compared to healthy subjects; among the GERD children, dental erosion was associated with the use of adult toothpaste.

  19. Dental erosion and its association with diet in Libyan schoolchildren.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huew, R; Waterhouse, P J; Moynihan, P J; Kometa, S; Maguire, A

    2011-10-01

    To investigate any association between dental erosion and its potential dietary risk factors in a group of schoolchildren in Benghazi, Libya. A cross-sectional observational study. A random sample of 12-year-old schoolchildren in 36 randomly selected schools completed a questionnaire to provide dietary data and underwent dental examination. Dental erosion was assessed using UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2000) criteria. Associations between erosion and dietary variables under study were investigated through processes of bivariate and multivariate analyses. Of 791 schoolchildren dentally examined, 40.8% had dental erosion; erosion into enamel affecting 32.5%, into dentine affecting 8% and into pulp affecting 0.3% of subjects. Bivariate analysis showed frequency of fruit-based sugary drink intake was statistically significantly and positively associated with erosion (p=0.006, Odds Ratio; 1.498, 95% CI; 1.124, 1.996) as was the length of time taken to consume acidic drinks (p≠0.005, Odds Ratio; 1.593, 95%CI; 1.161, 2.186). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed frequency of consumption of fruit other than bananas, sugared tea with milk and flavoured milk to also be positively associated with erosion (p=dental erosion.

  20. Variabilidade espacial de perdas de solo, do potencial natural e risco de erosão em áreas intensamente cultivadas Spatial variability of the soil loss, natural potential and erosion risk in intensively cultivated areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia de Mello

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo desta pesquisa foi identificar a variabilidade espacial do potencial natural de erosão, das perdas de solo e do risco de erosão em duas áreas intensamente cultivadas, com o intuito de fornecer subsídios na descrição de padrões de ocorrência de erosão. O solo da área, localizado em Monte Alto, SP, foi classificado como Argissolo Vermelho Amarelo (PVA, relevo ondulado e sob diferentes manejos. O solo da área localizado em Jaboticabal, SP, foi classificado como Latossolo Vermelho (LV, relevo suave, cultivado com cana-de-açúcar. O esquema de amostragem constituiu em uma malha irregular. Amostras de solo foram obtidas na profundidade de 0-0,2 m, para cada malha: 88 amostras para a área de Monte Alto (1465 ha e 128 amostras para a área de Jaboticabal (2597 ha. Para obtenção dos valores das variáveis estudadas, empregou-se a EUPS para cada ponto amostrado. Os dados foram submetidos à análise estatística descritiva e geoestatística para definição dos semivariogramas. Para os modelos foi utilizada a interpolação por krigagem. Observou-se a ocorrência de dependência espacial para todas as variáveis. O solo PVA apresentou maiores riscos de erosão, devido ao relevo, uso atual e manejo, comparado com o solo LV.The objective of this work was to identify the spatial variability of the natural erosion potential, soil loss and erosion risk in two intensely cultivated areas, in order to assess the erosion occurrence patterns. The soil of the area located at Monte Alto, São Paulo state, was classified as Paleudalf (PVA with moderately slope, with different managements. The soil of the area located at Jaboticabal, São Paulo state, was classified as Haplortox(LV with gentle slope and cultivated with sugarcane. A irregular grid was imposed on the experimental areas. Soil samples were obtained from 0-0.2 m depth at each grid point: 88 samples in Monte Alto area (1465 ha and 128 samples at Jaboticabal area (2597 ha. In order

  1. Erosion-corrosion synergistics in the low erosion regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corey, R.G.; Sethi, V.K.

    1986-01-01

    Many engineering alloys display good high temperature corrosion resistance. However, when they are used in corrosive environments where they are subjected to erosion also, the corrosion resistance has been adversely affected. The phenomenon known as erosion-corrosion is complex and requires detailed investigation of how the erosion and corrosion kinetics interact and compete. At the Kentucky Center for Energy Research Laboratory, an erosion-corrosion tester was used to perform erosion-oxidation tests on 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel at 500-600 0 C using alumina abrasive at low velocities. The erosion-oxidation rate data and morphology of exposed surfaces are consistent with oxide chipping and fracturing being the mode of material loss

  2. Using a dynamic model to assess trends in land degradation by water erosion in Spanish Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Javier; Francisco Lavado-Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne; Pulido-Fernández, Manuel; Martínez Valderrama, Jaime

    2014-05-01

    This work presents a model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesas and montados of the Iberian Peninsula, that constitute valuable rangelands in the area. A multidisciplinary dynamic model was built including weather, biophysical and economic variables that reflect the main causes and processes affecting sheet erosion on hillsides of the study areas. The model has two main and two derived purposes: Purpose 1: Assessing the risk of degradation that a land-use system is running. Derived purpose 1: Early warning about land-use systems that are particularly threatened by degradation. Purpose 2: Assessing the degree to which different factors would hasten degradation if they changed from the typical values they show at present. Derived purpose 2: Evaluating the role of human activities on degradation. Model variables and parameters have been calibrated for a typical open woodland rangeland (dehesa or montado) defined along 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms and distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The model is the basis for a straightforward assessment methodology which is summarized by the three following points: i) The risk of losing a given amount of soil before a given number of years was specifically estimated as the percentage of 1000 simulations where such a loss occurs, being the simulations run under randomly-generated scenarios of rainfall amount and intensity and meat and supplemental feed market prices; ii) Statistics about the length of time that a given amount of soil takes to be lost were calculated over 1000 stochastic simulations run until year 1000, thereby ensuring that such amount of soil has been lost in all of the simulations, i.e. the total risk is 100%; iii) Exogenous factors potentially affecting degradation, mainly climatic and economic, were ranked in order of importance by means of a sensitivity analysis. Particularly remarkable in terms of model performance is the major role

  3. A terminological matter: paragenesis, antigravitative erosion or antigravitational erosion ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasini G.

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the speleological literature three terms are utilized to designate the “ascending erosion”: paragenesis (= paragénésis, coined in1968, antigravitative erosion (= erosione antigravitativa, coined in 1966 and antigravitational erosion (wrong English translation ofthe Italian term erosione antigravitativa, utilized later on. The term paragenesis should be abandoned because of the priority of theterm erosione antigravitativa - on the ground of the “law of priority” – and because of its ambiguous etimology. On the other hand,the term antigravitational erosion should be forsaken in favour of the term antigravitative erosion, given the meaning that the termsgravitation and gravity have in Physics. Therefore, to designate the phenomenon of the “ascending erosion” there would be nothingleft but the term antigravitative erosion.The antigravitative erosion process and its recognizability are illustrated.Examples of caves with evident antigravitative erosion phenomena, developed in different karstifiable rocks and in several partsof the world, are given.It is recalled that the antigravitative erosion is a phenomenon well-known since 1942 and widely proven and supported, and that it isrelatively easy – in many cases - to recognize the antigravitative origin of karstic passages.It is stressed that the antigravitative erosion is an important phenomenon, exclusive of the karstic caves and unique in nature.

  4. Erosion control works and the intensity of soil erosion in the upper part of the river Toplica drainage basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, S; Dragovic, N; Zlatic, M; Todosijevic, M

    2008-01-01

    Aiming at the protection of the future storage 'Selova' against erosion and sediment, and also to protect the settlements and roads in the drainage basin against torrential floods, erosion control works in the upper part of the river Toplica basin, upstream of the storage 'Selova', started in 1947. The works included building-technical works (check dams) and biological works (afforestation and grassing of bare lands and other erosion risk areas). Within the period 1947-2006, the following erosion control works were executed: afforestation of bare lands on the slopes 2,257.00 ha, grassing of bare lands 1,520.00 ha, and altogether 54 dams were constructed in the river Toplica tributaries. This caused the decrease of sediment transport in the main flow of the river Toplica. This paper, based on the field research conducted in two time periods: 1988 and in the period 2004-2007, presents the state of erosion in the basin before erosion control works; type and scope of erosion control works and their effect on the intensity of erosion in the river Toplica basin upstream of the future storage 'Selova'.

  5. Quantification Of Erosion Rates Of Agriculturally Used Soils By Artificial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Abhinand

    2010-05-01

    0.0.1 1. Introduction to soil erosion measurement by radionuclides Soil erosion by water, wind and tillage affects both agriculture and the natural environment. Studying this phenomenon would be one of the advancements in science. Soil erosion occurs worldwide and since the last two decades it has been a main topic of discussion all over the world. The use of environmental radionuclides such as 90Sr, 137Cs to study medium term soil erosion (40 yrs) started in the early 1990's. Using these new techniques better knowledge about erosion can be gained and this knowledge can be implemented for erosion risk management. The erosion and sedimentation study by using man-made and natural radioisotopes is a key technique, which has developed over the past 30 years. Fallout 137Cs and Cosmogenic 7Be are radionuclides that have been used to provide independent measurements of soil-erosion and sediment-deposition rates and patterns [1] [2] [3] [4]. Erosion measurements using radionuclides 137Cs, 7Be Caesium-137 from atmospheric nuclear-weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s (Fig.1) is a unique tracer of erosion and sedimentation, since there are no natural sources of 137Cs. Unique events such as the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 caused regional dispersal of 137Cs that affects the total global deposition budget. This yearly pattern of fallout can be used to develop a chronology of deposition horizons in lakes, reservoirs, and floodplains. 137Cs can be easily measured by gamma spectroscopy. Using 137Cs is a fast and cheap method to study erosion-deposition processes compared to the traditional methods like silt bags. PIC Figure 1: Global 137Cs fallout (Modified from SAAS Bulletin 353, Part E, DDR, 1986) When 137Cs, 7Be reach the soil surface by wet and dry deposition, they are quickly and strongly adsorbed by ion exchange and are essentially non exchangeable in most environments. Each radionuclide is distributed differently in the soil because of differences in half-lives (30 yrs

  6. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  7. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Proposal for the formats of names, parameters, variables, units and symbols to be used in emission scenario documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    De EU werkgroep voor het verzamelen, beoordelen en ontwikkelen van emissie scenario's voor biociden (EUBEES) doet in dit rapport een voorstel om tot een uniforme manier van naamgeving en het gebruik van symbolen te komen, die aansluit bij de lijsten met symbolen van EUSES en USES (Appendix

  8. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Emission Scenario Document for Product Type 2: Private and public health area disinfectants and other biocidal products (sanitary and medical sector)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    Dit rapport is een aangepaste versie van RIVM rapport 601450 002. Herziening vond plaats in het kader van het project "Verzameling, herziening en ontwikkeling van biocide emissie scenario's voor het milieu" (werkgroep EUBEES). Het rapport bevat een beschrijving van de behandelde

  9. Current status of mechanical erosion studies of bentonite buffer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sane, P.; Olin, M.; Koskinen, K.

    2013-08-01

    The performance of the bentonite buffer in KBS-3-type nuclear waste repository concept relies to a great extent on the buffer surrounding the canister having sufficient dry density. Loss of buffer material caused by erosion remains as the most significant process reducing the density of the buffer. The mechanical erosion, or pre-saturation erosion, is the process where flowing groundwater transports buffer material away from the deposition hole towards the deposition tunnel. This process reduces the overall buffer density and potentially creates localized regions of low density. In the worst case the process is assumed to last as long as the free volume between the pellets in the pellets filled regions is filled with groundwater. With fixed environmental and material parameters a set of experiments was performed, testing the erosive properties of different buffer and backfill materials (MX-80 and Friedland Clay) in different groundwater conditions. The method used was a pinhole erosion test using two sizescales; 100 mm and 400 mm of cell length. The purpose of the pinhole tests was to test the scenario where piping channel is formed in the buffer and water flows through a single channel. The erosion data was produced with two methods, firstly the time-related erosion rates measured in-situ during the measurement and secondly the overall mass loss in the sample cell measured after dismantling of the test. It was observed that erosion in piping channels decreases rapidly (∼24 h) and irreversibly to a level that is an order of magnitude lower than the peak values. (orig.)

  10. Erosion in extruder flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Fodor, Petru S.

    A detailed analysis of the fluid flow in Tadmor's unwound channel model of the single screw extruder is performed by combining numerical and analytical methods. Using the analytical solution for the longitudinal velocity field (in the limit of zero Reynolds number) allows us to devote all the computational resources solely for a detailed numerical solution of the transversal velocity field. This high resolution 3D model of the fluid flow in a single-screw extruder allows us to identify the position and extent of Moffatt eddies that impede mixing. We further consider the erosion of particles (e.g. carbon-black agglomerates) advected by the polymeric flow. We assume a particle to be made of primary fragments bound together. In the erosion process a primary fragment breaks out of a given particle. Particles are advected by the laminar flow and they disperse because of the shear stresses imparted by the fluid. The time evolution of the numbers of particles of different sizes is described by the Bateman coupled differential equations used to model radioactivity. Using the particle size distribution we compute an entropic fragmentation index which varies from 0 for a monodisperse system to 1 for an extreme poly-disperse system.

  11. Rill erosion rates in burned forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Wildfires often produce large increases in runoff and erosion rates (e.g., Moody and Martin, 2009), and land managers need to predict the frequency and magnitude of postfire erosion to determine the needs for hazard response and possible erosion mitigation to reduce the impacts of increased erosion on public safety and valued resources. The Water Erosion...

  12. Creating a Bio-Inspired Solution to Prevent Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reher, R.; Martinez, A.; Cola, J.; Frost, D.

    2016-12-01

    Through the study of geophysical sciences, lessons can be developed which allow for the introduction of bio-inspired design and art concepts to K-5 elementary students. Students are placed into an engineering mindset in which they must apply the concepts of bio-geotechnics to observe how we can use nature to prevent and abate erosion. Problems are staged for students using realistic engineering scenarios such as erosion prevention through biomimicry and the study of anchorage characteristics of root structures in regard to stability of soil. Specifically, a lesson is introduced where students research, learn, and present information about bio-inspired designs to understand these concepts. They lean how plant roots differ in size and shape to stabilize soil. In addition, students perform a series of hands-on experiments which demonstrate how bio-cements and roots can slow erosion.

  13. Analysis of electricity supply-demand balance scenarios for the winter of 2013-2014. A satisfactory situation, with a moderate risk of supply disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2013-2014

  14. Analysis of electricity supply-demand balance scenarios for the winter of 2012-2013. A satisfactory situation, with a moderate risk of supply disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2012-2013

  15. Simulating flood risk under non-stationary climate and urban development conditions - Experimental setup for multiple hazards and a variety of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    vulnerability resulting from urban growth. The framework is embedded in an experimental setup where flood damage obtained from combined hydraulic-urban development simulations is approximated using kriging-metamodels. Space-filling, sequential and stratified sequential sampling strategies are tested. Reliable...... options implemented over short time horizons. However, the number of simulations is reduced by up to one order of magnitude compared to scenario-based methods, highlighting the potential of the approach....

  16. The erosive potential of lollipops

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, H.S.; Gambon, D.L.; Paap, A.; Bulthuis, M.S.; Veerman, E.C.I.; Nieuw Amerongen, A.V.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: To determine the erosive potential of several commercially available lollipops and the protective effect of saliva. Methods: The erosive potential of lollipops was determined in vitro by measuring the pH and neutralisable acidity. Subsequently, 10 healthy volunteers tested different types of

  17. Wind erosion processes and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind erosion continues to threaten the sustainability of our nations' soil, air, and water resources. To effectively apply conservation systems to prevent wind driven soil loss, an understanding of the fundamental processes of wind erosion is necessary so that land managers can better recognize the ...

  18. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  19. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Brink, Van den Paul J.; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-01-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development

  20. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-01-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development

  1. Erosion--corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vyas, B.

    1978-01-01

    The deterioration of materials by corrosion or erosion by itself presents a formidable problem and for this reason investigators have studied these two phenomena independently. In fact, there are very few systematic studies on E-C and the majority of references mention it only in passing. In most real systems, however, the two destructive processes take place simultaneously, hence the purpose of this review is to present the various interactions between the chemical and mechanical agents leading to accelerated degradation of the material. The papers cited in the review are those that lead to a better understanding of the process involved in the accelerated rate of material loss under E-C conditions

  2. Transrectal Mesh Erosion Requiring Bowel Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Marta Maria; Slim, Karem; Rabischong, Benoît; Bourdel, Nicolas; Canis, Michel; Botchorishvili, Revaz

    To report a case of a transrectal mesh erosion as complication of laparoscopic promontofixation with mesh repair, necessitating bowel resection and subsequent surgical interventions. Sacrocolpopexy has become a standard procedure for vaginal vault prolapse [1], and the laparoscopic approach has gained popularity owing to more rapid recovery and less morbidity [2,3]. Mesh erosion is a well-known complication of surgical treatment for prolapse as reported in several negative evaluations, including a report from the US Food and Drug Administration in 2011 [4]. Mesh complications are more common after surgeries via the vaginal approach [5]; nonetheless, the incidence of vaginal mesh erosion after laparoscopic procedures is as high as 9% [6]. The incidence of transrectal mesh exposure after laparoscopic ventral rectopexy is roughly 1% [7]. The diagnosis may be delayed because of its rarity and variable presentation. In addition, polyester meshes, such as the mesh used in this case, carry a higher risk of exposure [8]. A 57-year-old woman experiencing genital prolapse, with the cervix classified as +3 according to the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification system, underwent laparoscopic standard sacrocolpopexy using polyester mesh. Subtotal hysterectomy and bilateral adnexectomy were performed concomitantly. A 3-year follow-up consultation demonstrated no signs or symptoms of erosion of any type. At 7 years after the surgery, however, the patient presented with rectal discharge, diagnosed as infectious rectocolitis with the isolation of Clostridium difficile. She underwent a total of 5 repair surgeries in a period of 4 months, including transrectal resection of exposed mesh, laparoscopic ablation of mesh with digestive resection, exploratory laparoscopy with abscess drainage, and exploratory laparoscopy with ablation of residual mesh and transverse colostomy. She recovered well after the last intervention, exhibiting no signs of vaginal or rectal fistula and no recurrence

  3. Glaucoma Drainage Device Erosion Following Ptosis Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Steven S; Campbell, Robert J

    2017-09-01

    To highlight the potential risk of glaucoma drainage device erosion following ptosis surgery. Case report. A 71-year-old man underwent uncomplicated superotemporal Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation in the left eye in 2008. Approximately 8 years later, the patient underwent bilateral ptosis repair, which successfully raised the upper eyelid position. Three months postoperatively, the patient's glaucoma drainage implant tube eroded through the corneal graft tissue and overlying conjunctiva to become exposed. A graft revision surgery was successfully performed with no further complications. Caution and conservative lid elevation may be warranted when performing ptosis repair in patients with a glaucoma drainage implant, and patients with a glaucoma implant undergoing ptosis surgery should be followed closely for signs of tube erosion.

  4. The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

    2017-04-01

    It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

  5. Using REE tracers to measure sheet erosion changing to rill erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Puling; Xue Yazhou; Song Wei; Wang Mingyi; Ju Tongjun

    2004-01-01

    Rare Earth Elements (REE) tracer method was used to study sheet erosion changing to rill erosion on slope land. By placing different rare earth elements of different soil depth across a slope in an indoor plot, two simulated rainfalls were applied to study the change of erosion type and the rill erosion process. The results indicate that the main erosion type is sheet erosion at the beginning of the rainfalls, and serious erosion happens after rill erosion appears. Accumulated sheet and rill erosion amounts increase with the rainfalls time. The percentage of sheet erosion amount decreases and rill erosion percentage increases with time. At the end of the rainfalls, the total rill erosion amounts are 4-5 times more than sheet erosion. In this paper, a new REE tracer method was used to quantitatively distinguish sheet and rill erosion amounts. The new REE tracer method should be useful to future studying of erosion processes on slope lands. (authors)

  6. Modeling of Soil Erosion by IntErO model: The Case Study of the Novsicki Potok Watershed, of the Prokletije high mountains of Montenegro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spalevic, Velibor; Al-Turki, Ali M.; Barovic, Goran; Leandro Naves Silva, Marx; Djurovic, Nevenka; Soares Souza, Walisson; Veloso Gomes Batista, Pedro; Curovic, Milic

    2016-04-01

    The application of soil conservation programs to combat erosion and sedimentation are significantly contributing to the protection of the natural resources. Watershed management practices include the assessment of Physical-Geographical, Climate, Geological, Pedological characteristics, including the analysis of Land Use of the regions concerned. The policy makers are increasingly looking for the different land uses and climatic scenarios that can be used for valuable projections for watershed management. To increase knowledge about those processes, use of hydrological and soil erosion models is needed and that is allowing quantification of soil redistribution and sediment productions. We focused on soil erosion processes in one of Northern Montenegrin mountain watersheds, the Novsicki Potok Watershed of the Polimlje River Basin, using modeling techniques: the IntErO model for calculation of runoff and soil loss. The model outcomes were validated through measurements of lake sediment deposition at the Potpec hydropower plant dam. Our findings indicate a medium potential of soil erosion risk. With 464 m³ yr-1 of annual sediment yield, corresponding to an area-specific sediment yield of 270 m³km-2 yr-1, the Novsicki Potok drainage basin belongs to the Montenegrin basins with the medium sediment discharge; according to the erosion type, it is surface erosion. The value of the Z coefficient was calculated on 0.403, what indicates that the river basin belongs to 3rd destruction category (of five). Our results suggest that the calculated peak discharge from the river basin was 82 m3s-1 for the incidence of 100 years. According to our analysis there is a possibility for large flood waves to appear in the studied river basin. With this research we, to some extent, improved the knowledge on the status of sediment yield and runoff of the river basins of Montenegro, where the map of Soil erosion is still not prepared. The IntErO model we used in this study is relatively

  7. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  8. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  9. Estimating erosion in a riverine watershed: Bayou Liberty-Tchefuncta River in Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, August; Gunter, James T; Regens, James L

    2003-01-01

    GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Sheet erosion from agricultural, forest and urban lands may increase stream sediment loads as well as transport other pollutants that adversely affect water quality, reduce agricultural and forest production, and increase infrastructure maintenance costs. This study uses spatial analysis techniques and a numerical modeling approach to predict areas with the greatest sheet erosion potential given different soils disturbance scenarios. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were used to estimate sheet erosion from 0.64 ha parcels of land within the watershed. The Soil Survey of St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana was digitized, required soil attributes entered into the GIS database, and slope factors determined for each 80 x 80 meter parcel in the watershed. The GIS/USLE model used series-specific erosion K factors, a rainfall factor of 89, and a GIS database of scenario-driven cropping and erosion control practice factors to estimate potential soil loss due to sheet erosion. A general trend of increased potential sheet erosion occurred for all land use categories (urban, agriculture/grasslands, forests) as soil disturbance increases from cropping, logging and construction activities. Modeling indicated that rapidly growing urban areas have the greatest potential for sheet erosion. Evergreen and mixed forests (production forest) had lower sheet erosion potentials; with deciduous forests (mostly riparian) having the least sheet erosion potential. Erosion estimates from construction activities may be overestimated because of the value chosen for the erosion control practice factor. This study illustrates the ease with which GIS can be integrated with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to identify areas with high sheet erosion potential for large scale management and policy decision making. The GIS/USLE modeling approach used in this study offers a quick and inexpensive tool for estimating sheet erosion within

  10. Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

    2017-05-01

    In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  11. Modeling soil erosion in a watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Lanuza, R.

    1999-01-01

    Most erosion models have been developed based on a plot scale and have limited application to a watershed due to the differences in aerial scale. In order to address this limitation, a GIS-assisted methodology for modeling soil erosion was developed using PCRaster to predict the rate of soil erosion at watershed level; identify the location of erosion prone areas; and analyze the impact of landuse changes on soil erosion. The general methodology of desktop modeling or soil erosion at watershe...

  12. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  13. Heel erosion and other interdigital disorders in dairy cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Carsten; Gröhn, Y.T.; Thysen, Iver

    1991-01-01

    Epidemiologic associations between variables obtainable from dairy cow records and the occurrence of heel erosion, interdigital dermatitis, and interdigital hyperplasia at claw trimmings were estimated with multivariable logistic regression analysis on data from 1170 and 542 cows in lactation 1...... and lactations 2 to 9, respectively. In the 17 herds, heel erosion, interdigital dermatitis, and hyperplasia occurred among 43.8, 4.5, and .9% of cows in lactation 1 and among 69.1, 7.6 and 5.9% of cows in lactations 2 to 9, respectively. Severity of heel erosion increased with parity, and risk increased...... with stage of lactation. Strong seasonal effects were present. Various combinations of veterinary treatments were associated with heel erosion and hyperplasia depending on parity, stage of lactation, and the presence of other claw disorders. In contrast, veterinary treatment had a protective effect...

  14. Uncertainty in soil carbon accounting due to unrecognized soil erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderman, Jonathan; Chappell, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    The movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during erosion and deposition events represents a major perturbation to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the recognized impact soil redistribution can have on the carbon cycle, few major carbon accounting models currently allow for soil mass flux. Here, we modified a commonly used SOC model to include a soil redistribution term and then applied it to scenarios which explore the implications of unrecognized erosion and deposition for SOC accounting. We show that models that assume a static landscape may be calibrated incorrectly as erosion of SOC is hidden within the decay constants. This implicit inclusion of erosion then limits the predictive capacity of these models when applied to sites with different soil redistribution histories. Decay constants were found to be 15-50% slower when an erosion rate of 15 t soil ha(-1)  yr(-1) was explicitly included in the SOC model calibration. Static models cannot account for SOC change resulting from agricultural management practices focused on reducing erosion rates. Without accounting for soil redistribution, a soil sampling scheme which uses a fixed depth to support model development can create large errors in actual and relative changes in SOC stocks. When modest levels of erosion were ignored, the combined uncertainty in carbon sequestration rates was 0.3-1.0 t CO2  ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This range is similar to expected sequestration rates for many management options aimed at increasing SOC levels. It is evident from these analyses that explicit recognition of soil redistribution is critical to the success of a carbon monitoring or trading scheme which seeks to credit agricultural activities. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. Water erosion and climate change in a small alpine catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berteni, Francesca; Grossi, Giovanna

    2017-04-01

    WATER EROSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALL ALPINE CATCHMENT Francesca Berteni, Giovanna Grossi A change in the mean and variability of some variables of the climate system is expected to affect the sediment yield of mountainous areas in several ways: for example through soil temperature and precipitation peak intensity change, permafrost thawing, snow- and ice-melt time shifting. Water erosion, sediment transport and yield and the effects of climate change on these physical phenomena are the focus of this work. The study area is a small mountainous basin, the Guerna creek watershed, located in the Central Southern Alps. The sensitivity of sediment yield estimates to a change of condition of the climate system may be investigated through the application of different models, each characterized by its own features and limits. In this preliminary analysis two different empirical mathematical models are considered: RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1991) and EPM (Erosion Potential Method; Gavrilovic, 1988). These models are implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) supporting the management of the territorial database used to estimate relevant geomorphological parameters and to create different thematic maps. From one side the geographical and geomorphological information is required (land use, slope and hydrogeological instability, resistance to erosion, lithological characterization and granulometric composition). On the other side the knowledge of the weather-climate parameters (precipitation and temperature data) is fundamental as well to evaluate the intensity and variability of the erosive processes and estimate the sediment yield at the basin outlet. Therefore different climate change scenarios were considered in order to tentatively assess the impact on the water erosion and sediment yield at the small basin scale. Keywords: water erosion, sediment yield, climate change, empirical mathematical models, EPM, RUSLE, GIS

  16. Soil erosion evolution and spatial correlation analysis in a typical karst geomorphology using RUSLE with GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zeng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although some scholars have studied soil erosion in karst landforms, analyses of the spatial and temporal evolution of soil erosion and correlation analyses with spatial elements have been insufficient. The lack of research has led to an inaccurate assessment of environmental effects, especially in the mountainous area of Wuling in China. Soil erosion and rocky desertification in this area influence the survival and sustainability of a population of 0.22 billion people. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of soil erosion and explores its relationship with rocky desertification using GIS technology and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the relationship between soil erosion and major natural elements in southern China. The results are as follows: (1 from 2000 to 2013, the proportion of the area experiencing micro-erosion and mild erosion was at increasing risk in contrast to areas where moderate and high erosion are decreasing. The area changes in this time sequence reflect moderate to high levels of erosion tending to convert into micro-erosion and mild erosion. (2 The soil erosion area on the slope, at 15–35°, accounted for 60.59 % of the total erosion area, and the corresponding soil erosion accounted for 40.44 %. (3 The annual erosion rate in the karst region decreased much faster than in the non-karst region. Soil erosion in all of the rock outcrop areas indicates an improving trend, and dynamic changes in soil erosion significantly differ among the various lithological distribution belts. (4 The soil erosion rate decreased in the rocky desertification regions, to below moderate levels, but increased in the severe rocky desertification areas. The temporal and spatial variations in soil erosion gradually decreased in the study area. Differences in the spatial distribution between lithology and rocky desertification induced extensive soil loss. As rocky desertification

  17. Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

    2017-12-01

    Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All

  18. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  19. Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

    2012-01-01

    The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  20. Gastric Mucosal Erosions - Radiologic evaluation -

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seung Hyup

    1985-01-01

    70 cases of gastric mucosal erosions were diagnosed by double contrast upper gastrointestinal examinations and endoscopic findings. Analyzing the radiologic findings of these 70 cases of gastric mucosal erosions, the following results were obtained. 1. Among the total 70 cases, 65 cases were typical varioliform erosions showing central depressions and surrounding mucosal elevations. Remaining 5 cases were erosions of acute phase having multiple irregular depressions without surrounding elevations. 2. The gastric antrum was involved alone or in part in all cases. Duodenal bulb was involved with gastric antrum in 4 cases. 3. The majority of the cases had multiple erosions. There were only 2 cases of single erosion. 4. In 65 cases of varioliform erosions; 1) The diameter of the surrounding elevations varied from 3 to 20 mm with the majority (47 cases) between 6 and 10 mm. 2) In general, the surrounding elevations with sharp margin on double contrast films were also clearly demonstrated on compression films but those with faint margin were not. 3) The size of the central barium collections varied from pinpoint to 10 mm with the majority under 5 mm. The shape of the central barium collections in majority of the cases were round with a few cases of linear, triangular or star-shape. 5. In 5 cases of acute phase erosions; 1) All the 5 cases were females. 2) On double contrast radiography, all the cases showed multiple irregular depressed lesions without surrounding elevations. 3) 1 case had the history of hematemesis. 4) In 1 case, there was marked radiological improvement on follow-up study of 2 months interval. 6. In 23 cases, there were coexistent diseases with gastric mucosal erosions. These were 13 cases of duodenal bulb ulcers,7 cases of benign gastric ulcers and 3 others

  1. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  2. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  3. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  4. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  5. Relationship between food habits and tooth erosion occurrence in Malaysian University students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Lee, Mei Tee; Ali, Nor Hazirah Muhammad; Samynathan, Selvamary; Jie, Ying Phor; Ismail, Noor Hasnani; Bibiana Hui Ying, Yong; Wei Seng, Yeo; Yahya, Nurul Asyikin

    2012-04-01

    Tooth erosion is a growing dental problem; however, the role of diet in the aetiology of tooth erosion is unclear. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the association between tooth erosion occurrence and the consumption of acidic foods and drinks among undergraduate university students. A total of 150 undergraduate students (33 males and 117 females) aged 19 to 24 years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia participated in this study. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination was used to assess the occurrence of tooth erosion. Information regarding dental hygiene practices, usual dietary habits, and consumption of acidic foods and drinks was obtained through a structured questionnaire. In all, 68% of subjects had tooth erosion. Subjects who reported having received information about healthy eating were less likely to have tooth erosion (χ(2) [1, N = 150] = 7.328, P = 0.007). The frequencies of milk (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.13-0.67) and tea/coffee (adjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.19-0.95) consumption were negatively associated with tooth erosion. Dental hygiene practice, the frequency and amount of acidic food and drink intake, and body mass index classification were not significantly associated with the risk of tooth erosion (P > 0.05). A high prevalence of tooth erosion was observed among this group of students. Preventive measures, such as dietary advice and increased consumption of milk at a younger age, may reduce the occurrence of tooth erosion among this age group.

  6. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  7. Modelling the impact of the climatic changes on the dune erosion. The case of the Camargue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabatier, F.

    2008-01-01

    Three climatic changes scenarios were investigated by an increase of energy and by the duration of an extreme storm. The wave characteristics properties and the sea level time series of the referenced storm were increased of about 5, 10 and 20 % in order to define the dune erosion. We evidenced that the wave height displays more influence on the dune erosion than the sea level. Moreover, the storm duration, over 4 days, does not play an important role on the dune erosion. However, there is no proportional relationships between a weak storm energy increase and/or duration, and dune erosion. A small increase of storm will have a large impact on dune erosion in the future. (author)

  8. Erosive tooth wear in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carvalho, T.S.; Lussi, A.; Jaeggi, T.; Gambon, D.L.; Lussi, A.; Ganss, C.

    2014-01-01

    Erosive tooth wear in children is a common condition. Besides the anatomical differences between deciduous and permanent teeth, additional histological differences may influence their susceptibility to dissolution. Considering laboratory studies alone, it is not clear whether deciduous teeth are

  9. Erosion-resistant composite material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, C.B.; Tennery, V.J.; Curlee, R.M.

    A highly erosion-resistant composite material is formed of chemical vapor-deposited titanium diboride on a sintered titanium diboride-nickel substrate. This material may be suitable for use in cutting tools, coal liquefaction systems, etc.

  10. Public authority responses to marine stinger public health risks: a scenario analysis of the Irukandji health threat in controlled spaces at public beaches in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley-Cyr, Lynda

    2012-12-01

    This scenario analysis was undertaken to anticipate the likelihood of public authority liability for negligence arising from harm associated with the relatively new phenomenon of the Irukandji marine stinger health threat in Australia. The tort of negligence is about allocating liability for wrongs typically committed by one person or entity against another. The author questions whether a person who enters a marine stinger enclosure at one of Australia's patrolled and flagged beaches and suffers serious injury from an Irukandji sting can seek compensation or damages in negligence against government. It is argued that as the law currently stands, an injured bather without adequate warning could successfully sue a local authority for creating a false perception of safety and therefore inducing risky behaviour. Changes in ecology and climate variability are relevant considerations. This is a novel issue not previously dealt with in Australian courts.

  11. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  12. Soil Erosion and Agricultural Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, D. R.

    2009-04-01

    Data drawn from a global compilation of studies support the long articulated contention that erosion rates from conventionally plowed agricultural fields greatly exceed rates of soil production, erosion under native vegetation, and long-term geological erosion. Whereas data compiled from around the world show that soil erosion under conventional agriculture exceeds both rates of soil production and geological erosion rates by up to several orders of magnitude, similar global distributions of soil production and geological erosion rates suggest an approximate balance. Net soil erosion rates in conventionally plowed fields on the order of 1 mm/yr can erode typical hillslope soil profiles over centuries to millennia, time-scales comparable to the longevity of major civilizations. Well-documented episodes of soil loss associated with agricultural activities date back to the introduction of erosive agricultural methods in regions around the world, and stratigraphic records of accelerated anthropogenic soil erosion have been recovered from lake, fluvial, and colluvial stratigraphy, as well as truncation of soil stratigraphy (such as truncated A horizons). A broad convergence in the results from studies based on various approaches employed to study ancient soil loss and rates of downstream sedimentation implies that widespread soil loss has accompanied human agricultural intensification in examples drawn from around the world. While a broad range of factors, including climate variability and society-specific social and economic contexts — such as wars or colonial relationships — all naturally influence the longevity of human societies, the ongoing loss of topsoil inferred from studies of soil erosion rates in conventional agricultural systems has obvious long-term implications for agricultural sustainability. Consequently, modern agriculture — and therefore global society — faces a fundamental question over the upcoming centuries. Can an agricultural system

  13. The role of fear and threat in communicating risk scenarios and the need for actions. Effect of fear on information processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meijnders, A.L.; Midden, C.J.H. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Department of Psychology and Linguistics, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Wilke, H.A.M. [Leiden University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Organizational Psychology, Leiden (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The results of a first experiment regarding the title subject, in which we examined whether fear of environmental risks increases the tendency to carefully process information on environmentally sound behaviour, are discussed. 2 figs., 10 refs.

  14. COASTAL INVERTEBRATES AND FISHES: HOW WILL THEY BE AFFECTED BY CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS- INCORPORATING CLIMATE SCENARIOS INTO THE COASTAL BIODIVERSITY RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Coastal Biodiversity Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT) is a public website that functions as an ecoinformatics platform to synthesize biogeographical distributions, abundances, life history attributes, and environmental tolerances for near-coastal invertebrates and fishes on a broad...

  15. Erosion properties of unipolar arcs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chekalin, Eh.K.

    1982-01-01

    Processes modelling the formation of unipolar arcs on the elements of the first wall in limiters of the vacuum chamber and on active elements of tokamak divertor, are experimentally investigated. Erosion, processes that take place at two types of non-stationary cathode spots are considered. Experimental data prove the possibility of reducing erosion intensity by coating the surface of electrodes by oxide films, reduction of the temperature of electrode and discharge current

  16. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-12-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development in environmental compartments and demonstrate its application in aquaculture production systems. We modelled exposure concentrations for 12 antibiotics used in Vietnamese Pangasius catfish production using the ERA-AQUA model. Minimum selective concentration (MSC) distributions that characterize the selective pressure of antibiotics on bacterial communities were derived from the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Minimum Inhibitory Concentration dataset. The antibiotic resistance development risk (RDR) for each antibiotic was calculated as the probability that the antibiotic exposure distribution exceeds the MSC distribution representing the bacterial community. RDRs in pond sediments were nearly 100% for all antibiotics. Median RDR values in pond water were high for the majority of the antibiotics, with rifampicin, levofloxacin and ampicillin having highest values. In the effluent mixing area, RDRs were low for most antibiotics, with the exception of amoxicillin, ampicillin and trimethoprim, which presented moderate risks, and rifampicin and levofloxacin, which presented high risks. The RDR provides an efficient means to benchmark multiple antibiotics and treatment regimes in the initial phase of a risk assessment with regards to their potential to develop resistance in different environmental compartments, and can be used to derive resistance threshold concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  18. Dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents: A 2.5-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusius, C D; Alves, L S; Susin, C; Maltz, M

    2018-02-01

    This population-based longitudinal study investigated the incidence, progression and risk factors for dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents. Eight hundred and one schoolchildren attending 42 public and private schools were clinically examined at 12 years of age; clinical examinations were repeated after 2.5 years (SD=0.3). After tooth cleaning and drying, permanent incisors and first molars were classified using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) scoring criteria. Questionnaires were used to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, dietary habits, toothbrushing frequency and general health. Poisson regression analysis was used to assess the association between dental erosion incidence and explanatory variables, with adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) and 95% CI estimated. Among those who did not have dental erosion at baseline, 49 of 680 schoolchildren (7.1%; 95% CI=5.2-9.1) developed erosive lesions over the follow-up period. Among schoolchildren who had dental erosion at baseline, 31 of 121 (25.4%; 95% CI=17.6-33.3) had new or more severe lesions. Boys were more likely to develop dental erosion than girls (IRR=1.88; 95% CI=1.06-3.32). A moderate incidence of dental erosion was observed among South Brazilian adolescents, with boys being at higher risk. The high progression rate of 25% observed here is very concerning, and it should be taken in consideration when designing preventive strategies for dental erosion. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Wind erosion of soils burned by wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    N. S. Wagenbrenner; M. J. Germino; B. K. Lamb; R. B. Foltz; P. R. Robichaud

    2011-01-01

    Wind erosion and aeolian transport processes are largely unstudied in the post-wildfire environment, but recent studies have shown that wind erosion can play a major role in burned landscapes. A wind erosion monitoring system was installed immediately following a wildfire in southeastern Idaho, USA to measure wind erosion from the burned area (Figure 1). This paper...

  20. Soil Erosion Estimation Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Wadi Yalamlam Basin, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarbou A. Bahrawi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the major environmental problems in terms of soil degradation in Saudi Arabia. Soil erosion leads to significant on- and off-site impacts such as significant decrease in the productive capacity of the land and sedimentation. The key aspects influencing the quantity of soil erosion mainly rely on the vegetation cover, topography, soil type, and climate. This research studies the quantification of soil erosion under different levels of data availability in Wadi Yalamlam. Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information Systems (GIS techniques have been implemented for the assessment of the data, applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE for the calculation of the risk of erosion. Thirty-four soil samples were randomly selected for the calculation of the erodibility factor, based on calculating the K-factor values derived from soil property surfaces after interpolating soil sampling points. Soil erosion risk map was reclassified into five erosion risk classes and 19.3% of the Wadi Yalamlam is under very severe risk (37,740 ha. GIS and RS proved to be powerful instruments for mapping soil erosion risk, providing sufficient tools for the analytical part of this research. The mapping results certified the role of RUSLE as a decision support tool.

  1. Use of 7Be to document soil erosion associated with a short period of extreme rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepulveda, A.; Schuller, P.; Walling, D.E.; Castillo, A.

    2008-01-01

    Intensification and expansion of agricultural production since the 1970s have increased soil erosion problems in south-central Chile. Quantitative information on soil loss is needed for erosion risk assessment and to establish the effectiveness of improved land management practices. Since information from traditional sources, such as erosion plots, is limited, attention has been directed to the use of environmental radionuclides for documenting erosion rates. Cs-137 has been successfully utilised for this purpose, but only provides information on medium-term erosion rates. There is also a need to document event-related soil erosion. This paper outlines the basis for using 7 Be measurements to document short-term erosion and reports its successful use for quantifying the erosion that occurred within an arable field, as a result of a period of heavy rainfall (400 mm in 27 days) occurring in May 2005. The study field had been under a no-till, no-burning system for 18 years, but immediately prior to the period of heavy rainfall the harvest residues were burnt. The erosion recorded therefore reflected both the extreme nature of the rainfall and the effects of the burning in increasing surface runoff and erosion. The sampled area corresponded to that used previously by the authors to document the medium-term erosion rates associated with both conventional tillage and the subsequent switch to a no-till system. Comparisons between the erosion documented for the period of heavy rainfall in 2005 with these medium-term erosion rates permits some tentative conclusions regarding the importance of extreme events and the impact of burning in increasing the erosion associated with the no-till system

  2. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A Method to Design a Multi-Player Educational Scenario to Make Interdisciplinary Teams Experiment Risk Management Situation in a Digital Collaborative Learning Game: A Case of Study in Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Pons Lelardeux

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been an increasing interest for collaborative training in risk management. One of the critical point is to create educational and entirely controlled training environments that support industrial companies (in aviation, healthcare, nuclear… or hospitals to train (future or not professionals. The aim is to improve their teamwork performance making them understand the importance applying or adjusting safety recommendations. In this article, we present a method to design multi-player educational scenario for risk management in a socio-technical and dynamic context. The socio-technical situations focused in this article involve non-technical skills such as teamwork, communication, leadership, decision-making and situation awareness. The method presented here has been used to design as well regular situations as well as critical situations in which deficiencies already exist or mistakes can be freely made and fixed by the team in a controlled digital environment.

  4. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  5. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  6. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  7. On the geoethical implications of wind erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Károly, Tatárvári

    2016-04-01

    Human activities exerts an ever growing impact on our environment, and this is undeniably the responsibility of mankind. In spite of this fact there is almost no process in our environment that can be described exactly with complete exactness, and the working of which is known in full extent. Wind erosion is such a process. Although water erosion is mentioned ever more often in scientific circles as a from of erosion, its effect is restrained to a certain region, although it may cause perceptibly damage of a greater extent in short time. Wind erosion, apart from the fact that it may have global impact, may play an important role in the warming of our climate according to recent studies. First of all, wind erosion may cause damage far from its origin in human health, nutrition, or in the environment in general. Today several surveys have proved, that erosion caused by wind significantly contributes to the air pollution of cities, the fine dust carried as drift by the wind may cause severe environmental damage in accumulation zones. Microbes, toxic material may attach themselves to the dust carried this way and carried on and by the wings of the wind they may cause health issues in humans animals and plants as well. In spite of these facts there are almost no measures against wind erosion employed in arable land, although our ever doughtier climate and changes would make these necessary. Reduction of organic matter content presents a great problem in a large part of cultivated land, so the risk of the production of high quality food raises questions of more and more ethical nature. Who is responsible? The fact, that the chemicals used in a growing extent by agriculture may reach many people causing considerable damage to the environment also raises serious ethical questions. More and more periods with extreme weather conditions are experienced in Hungary and Europe as the effect of climate change. Drought periods are longer and more frequent as the intensity of

  8. Optimizing land use pattern to reduce soil erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Sokouti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion hazard is one of the main problems can affect ecological balance in watersheds. This study aimed to determine the optimal use of land to reduce erosion and increase the resident's income of Qushchi watershed in West Azerbaijan province, Iran. Income and expenses for the current land uses were calculated with field studies. Damages resulting from the soil erosion were estimated by soil depth equal to the specified land uses. For three different options including the current status of land uses without and with land management, and the standard status of land uses, multi-objective linear programming model was established by LINGO software. Then the optimization problem of the land use was solved by simplex method. Finally, the best option of land use was determined by comparing erosion rate and its cost in each scenario. Then the circumstances and the recommended conditions were compared. The results indicated that the current surface area of current land uses is not suitable to reduce erosion and increase income of residents and should change in the optimum conditions. At the optimum level, there should change horticulture area of 408 to 507 (ha, irrigated land area of 169 to 136 (ha and dry farming of 636 to 570 (ha, while conversion of rangeland area not indispensable. In addition, the results showed that in case of the optimization of land use, soil erosion and the profitability of the whole area will decrease 0.75% and increase 3.68%, respectively. In case of land management practices, soil erosion will decrease 42.27% and the profitability increase 21.39% while in the standard conditions, soil erosion will decrease 60.95% and profitability will increase 24.20%. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the changes in the horticulture and range land areas have the greatest impact on the increasing profitability and reducing soil erosion of Qushchi watershed. So, it is recommended using Education and Extension to promote

  9. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  10. Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Ganjiang River Catchment, China: Characteristics and Influences of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianghu Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the most critical environmental hazards in the world. Understanding the changes in rainfall erosivity (RE and erosivity density (ED, as well as their affecting factors, at local and catchment scales in the context of climate warming is an important prerequisite of soil erosion prevention and soil loss risk assessment. The present study identified the variability and trends of RE and ED in terms of both time and space in the Ganjiang River catchment over the period of 1960–2012, and also analyzed and discussed the impact of climate change. The results show that RE and ED in the catchment had great monthly variations and high year-to-year variability. Both presented long-term increasing trends over the entire study period. The highest RE and ED were observed in June and in the eastern and northeast parts of the catchment, which indicated that June was the most susceptible month for soil erosion in this area and the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River was the riskiest area for soil erosion. Finally, the East Asian summer monsoon and climate change were highly correlated with changes in RE and ED.

  11. Incident process scenarios, risk management and state of the art of the fracking technology; Stoerfallablaufszenarien, Risikomanagement und Stand der Technik bei der Fracking Technologie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uth, Hans-Joachim

    2012-07-01

    The exploration, the development and the promotion of natural from unconventional deposits are associated with risks resulting from the drilling itself, from the above-ground technical facilities of the drilling site as well as from the transport of substances dangerous for the environment and in pipelines.

  12. Tooth erosion and eating disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Hermont

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Eating disorders are associated with the highest rates of morbidity and mortality of any mental disorders among adolescents. The failure to recognize their early signs can compromise a patient's recovery and long-term prognosis. Tooth erosion has been reported as an oral manifestation that might help in the early detection of eating disorders. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to search for scientific evidence regarding the following clinical question: Do eating disorders increase the risk of tooth erosion? METHODS: An electronic search addressing eating disorders and tooth erosion was conducted in eight databases. Two independent reviewers selected studies, abstracted information and assessed its quality. Data were abstracted for meta-analysis comparing tooth erosion in control patients (without eating disorders vs. patients with eating disorders; and patients with eating disorder risk behavior vs. patients without such risk behavior. Combined odds ratios (ORs and a 95% confidence interval (CI were obtained. RESULTS: Twenty-three papers were included in the qualitative synthesis and assessed by a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Fourteen papers were included in the meta-analysis. Patients with eating disorders had more risk of tooth erosion (OR = 12.4, 95%CI = 4.1-37.5. Patients with eating disorders who self-induced vomiting had more risk of tooth erosion than those patients who did not self-induce vomiting (OR = 19.6, 95%CI = 5.6-68.8. Patients with risk behavior of eating disorder had more risk of tooth erosion than patients without such risk behavior (Summary OR = 11.6, 95%CI = 3.2-41.7. CONCLUSION: The scientific evidence suggests a causal relationship between tooth erosion and eating disorders and purging practices. Nevertheless, there is a lack of scientific evidence to fulfill the basic criteria of causation between the risk behavior for eating disorders and tooth erosion.

  13. A probabilistic approach to modeling postfire erosion after the 2009 Australian bushfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; F. B. Pierson; D. E. Hall; C. A. Moffet

    2009-01-01

    Major concerns after bushfires and wildfires include increased flooding, erosion and debris flows due to loss of the protective forest floor layer, loss of water storage, and creation of water repellent soil conditions. To assist postfire assessment teams in their efforts to evaluate fire effects and make postfire treatment decisions, a web-based Erosion Risk...

  14. Natural potential of erosion in the periurbane area of São Carlos - SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio G. Pedro

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available The population growth in urban areas is speeding up the opening of new land parceling, which due to the emergencial characteristics has been done without proper land use planning. This intensive and non-ordered antropic occupation of the urban perimeter is inducing serious erosion problems. To minimize environmental impacts of new antropic occupations is necessary to obtain information of the physical environment properties, mainly related to erosion risk factors. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE developed in the USA has been widely used for the American land use planning and allows determining areas with higher erosion risk in urban areas. The soil and climate (rain parameters joined to the topography, indicate the Natural Erosion Potential of the USLE, when the antropic influence is not taken into consideration. It was done a Natural Erosion Potential map of the urban perimeter of São Carlos city (Brazil, in the scale of 1:10,000 using IDRISI 32 GIS, aiming to indicate the higher risk areas to erosion. The map of Natural Erosion Potential (PNE allowed identifying that the lowest values of PNE occurred at the Northeast, of the studied region, where the land could be used for urban expansion. By the other hand it was found that at Southwest and Southeast the values of PNE, were high, indicating them to be areas not favorable to urban expansion due to higher erosion risk.

  15. Intravesical midurethral sling mesh erosion secondary to transvaginal mesh reconstructive surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukanda Bin Jaili

    2015-05-01

    Conclusion: Repeated vaginal reconstructive surgery may jeopardize a primary mesh or sling, and pose a high risk of mesh erosion, which may be delayed for several years. Removal of the mesh erosion and bladder repair are feasible pervaginally with good outcome.

  16. Dental erosion among 12-14 year old school children in Khartoum: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Karim, I A; Sanhouri, N M; Hashim, N T; Ziada, H M

    2007-09-01

    To investigate dental erosion among 12-14 year old Sudanese school children and evaluate the associated risk factors. Cross sectional survey in secondary schools in Khartoum city, Sudan. A sample of 157 school children was obtained from both private and public schools. Erosion on the labial and palatal surfaces of maxillary incisors was measured by criterion based on the Smith and Knight Tooth Wear Index. Dietary intake and other related factors were assessed using a questionnaire. The overall erosion prevalence in this group was 66.9%, of which 45.2% was mild and 21.7% was moderate erosion. A strong association was found between erosion and private schooling (higher socioeconomic groups), carbonated drinks, herbal hibiscus drink and traditional acidic food consumption. There was a high prevalence of dental erosion among Sudanese school children which was mild to moderate in severity and was strongly associated with acidic dietary intake

  17. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  18. Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

    2018-08-01

    Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and

  19. Auto consolidated cohesive sediments erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ternat, F.

    2007-02-01

    Pollutants and suspended matters of a river can accumulate into the sedimentary column. Once deposited, they are submitted to self-weight consolidation processes, ageing and burying, leading to an increase of their erosion resistance. Pollutant fluxes can be related to sedimentary fluxes, determined by threshold laws. In this work, an erosion threshold model is suggested by introducing a cohesion force into the usual force balance. A model of cohesion is developed on the basis of interactions between argillaceous cohesive particles (clays), particularly the Van der Waals force, whose parameterization is ensured by means of granulometry and porosity. Artificial erosion experiments were performed in a recirculating erosion flume with natural cored sediments where critical shear stress measurements were performed. Other analyses provided granulometry and porosity. The results obtained constitute a good database for the literature. The model is then applied to the experimental conditions and gives good agreement with measurements. An example of the accounting for self-weight consolidation processes is finally suggested, before finishing on a Mohr like diagram dedicated to soft cohesive sediment erosion. (author)

  20. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  1. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  2. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  3. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  4. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  5. Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

    2016-12-01

    Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

  6. Prevalence of dental erosion among people with gastroesophageal reflux disease in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhao; Liu, Jingming; Chen, Su; Wang, Yao; Zhang, Zhenting

    2017-01-01

    Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is typically diagnosed based on symptoms of regurgitation and heartburn, although it may also manifest as asthma-like symptoms, laryngitis, or dental erosion. The purpose of this prospective, cross-sectional study was to assess the prevalence of dental erosion in people with GERD and to evaluate the association between GERD and dental erosion. The presence, severity, and pattern of dental erosion was assessed in 51 participants with GERD and 50 participants without GERD using the Smith and Knight tooth wear index. Medical, dietary, and dental histories were collected by questionnaire. Factors potentially related to dental erosion, including GERD, were evaluated by logistic regression. Dental erosion was observed in 31 (60.8%) participants with GERD and 14 (28%) participants without GERD. Bivariate analysis revealed that participants with GERD were more likely to experience dental erosion (crude odds ratio [cOR]: 2.74; 95% CI: 1.19, 6.32) than participants without GERD. Multivariate analysis also revealed that participants with GERD had a higher risk of dental erosion (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.97; 95% CI: 1.45, 10.89). Consumption of grains and legumes, the most frequently consumed foods in China, did not correlate with dental erosion. However, carbonated beverage consumption was significantly associated with GERD and dental erosion (aOR: 3.34; 95% CI: 1.01, 11.04; P=.04). GERD was positively correlated with dental erosion. Carbonated beverage consumption can increase the risk of both GERD and dental erosion. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Soil erosion in Slovene Istria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matjaž Mikoš

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available From the end of nineties of the 20th century, intense hydrologic and geomorphologic research is taking place in the Slovene Istria. As a part of this research also studies on soil erosion were undertaken in the period from 2005 to 2008. The field measurements were under taken onclosed 1m2 large erosion plots under three different land uses (on bare soils in an olive grove, on an overgrown meadow, in a forest, placed south of the Marezige village in the Rokava River basin.We show weekly measurements of surface erosion (interrill erosion for the period of 13 months (the end of March 2005 – the end of April 2006, as well as monthly and seasonal averages together with selected linear statistical correlations between soil erosion and weather parameters.From May 2005 to April 2006 the interrill erosion on bare soils in an olive grove with an inclination of 5.5° amounted to 9013 g/m2 (90 t/ha that corresponds to surface lowering rate of 8.5 mm/yr; on an overgrown meadow with an inclination of 9.4° it amounted to 168 g/m2 (1,68 t/ha that corresponds to surface lowering rate of 0.16 mm//yr; and in a forest with an inclination of 7.8° it amounted to 391 g/m2 (3,91 t/ha and in a forest with an inclination of 21.4° it amounted to 415 g/m2 (4,15 t/ha, respectively, that corresponds to surface lowering rate of 0.4 mm/yr.

  8. DISPERSION OF GLYPHOSATE IN SOILS UNDERGOING EROSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorana Todorovic Rampazzo

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Different physical, chemical and biological processes influence the behaviour of organic contaminants in soils. A better understanding of the organic pollutant behaviour in soils would improve the environmental protection. One possible way for better attenuation of the risk of pollution in agriculture can be achieved through ta better-specified pesticide management based on the adaptation of the pesticide type and application rates to the specific environmental characteristics of the area of application. Nowadays, one of the actually most applied herbicide world wide is glyphosate. Glyphosate is highly water soluble and traces have been found in surface and groundwater systems. For a better understanding of the natural influence of erosion processes on glyphosate behaviour and dispersion under heavy rain conditions after application in the field, two erosion simulation experiments were conducted on two different locations in Austria with completely different soil types in September 2008. The results of the experiments showed that under normal practical conditions (e.g. no rainfall is expected immediatly after application, the potential adsorption capacity of the Kirchberg soil (Stagnic Cambisol, with about 16.000 ppm Fe-oxides is confirmed compared to the low adsorption Chernosem soil (about 8.000 ppm pedogenic Fe-oxides.  Considering the enormous difference in the run-off amounts between the two sites Pixendorf and Kirchberg soils it can be concluded how important the soil structural conditions and vegetation type and cover are for the risks of erosion and, as a consequence, pollution of neighbouring waters. In the rainfall experiments under comparable simulation conditions, the amount of run-off was about 10 times higher at Kirchberg, owing to its better infiltration rate, than at the Pixendorf site. Moreover, the total loss of glyphosate (NT+