WorldWideScience

Sample records for equivalent warming impact

  1. TEWI - Total Equivalent Warming Impact. The environmental and climatic impact of the German refrigeration industry 1989/2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lotz, H.

    1993-01-01

    Development of concepts and new technologies will have to pay more heed to the ecological balance of a product than in the past. The Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environmental Office) suggests to divide an ecological balance into a balance of facts, a balance of impact and include a balance sheet valuation. As there are no valid socio-political valuation criteria they suggest to use partial criteria as for instance the climate-relevant air pollution for the valuation of the refrigeration industry. This article attempts to forecast existing and foreseeable developments of the refrigeration industry under this particular aspect. (BWI) [de

  2. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  3. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  4. The impacts and costs of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyre, N.J.

    1991-01-01

    There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). (author)

  5. Global warming potential impact of bioenergy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, L.; Wenzel, H.

    environmental consequences related to land use changes. In this study the global warming potential impact associated with six alternative bioenergy systems based on willow and Miscanthus was assessed by means of life-cycle assessment. The results showed that bioenergy production may generate higher global...... warming impacts than the reference fossil fuel system, when the impacts from indirect land use changes are accounted for. In a life-cycle perspective, only highly-efficient co-firing with fossil fuel achieved a (modest) GHG emission reduction....

  6. Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, S.K.; Fairchild, P.D.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are used in a number of applications, and volumes of CFCs used grew at a tremendous pace during the 1960s and 1970s. However, in the mid-1980s, it was confirmed that these extremely useful chemicals contribute to the destruction of stratospheric ozone. These chemicals are being phased out of use rapidly to protect the ozone layer and it is very important that the replacements for CFSs do not result in a net increase in global warming by introducing less efficient processes that lead to higher energy use and increased carbon dioxide emissions. A study was conducted to identify those alternative chemicals and technologies that could replace CFCs in energy related applications before the year 2000, and to assess the total potential impact of these alternatives on global warming. The analysis for this project included an estimate of the direct effects from the release of blowing agents, refrigerants, and solvents into the atmosphere and the indirect effects in the form of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy use for commercial and residential heating and cooling, household and commercial refrigeration, building and automobile air-conditioning, and general metal and electronics solvent cleaning. The discussion in this paper focuses on those aspects of the study relevant to refrigeration and air-conditioning. In general the use of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) alternatives for CFCs lead to large and sometimes dramatic reduction in total equivalent warming impact (TEWI), lifetime equivalent CO 2 emission. Most of the reductions result from decreased direct effects without significant changes in energy use. 3 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  7. Impact of biofuels on contrail warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caiazzo, Fabio; Agarwal, Akshat; Speth, Raymond L.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2017-11-01

    Contrails and contrail-cirrus may be the largest source of radiative forcing (RF) attributable to aviation. Biomass-derived alternative jet fuels are a potentially major way to mitigate the climate impacts of aviation by reducing lifecycle CO2 emissions. Given the up to 90% reduction in soot emissions from paraffinic biofuels, the potential for a significant impact on contrail RF due to the reduction in contrail-forming ice nuclei (IN) remains an open question. We simulate contrail formation and evolution to quantify RF over the United States under different emissions scenarios. Replacing conventional jet fuels with paraffinic biofuels generates two competing effects. First, the higher water emissions index results in an increase in contrail occurrence (~ +8%). On the other hand, these contrails are composed of larger diameter crystals (~ +58%) at lower number concentrations (~ -75%), reducing both contrail optical depth (~ -29%) and albedo (~ -32%). The net changes in contrail RF induced by switching to biofuels range from -4% to +18% among a range of assumed ice crystal habits (shapes). In comparison, cleaner burning engines (with no increase in water emissions index) result in changes to net contrail RF ranging between -13% and +5% depending on habit. Thus, we find that even 67% to 75% reductions in aircraft soot emissions are insufficient to substantially reduce warming from contrails, and that the use of biofuels may either increase or decrease contrail warming—contrary to previous expectations of a significant decrease in warming.

  8. Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossati, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

  9. Global Warming and Its Health Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Rossati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

  10. Impact of Global Warming on Flora and Fauna

    OpenAIRE

    , A. Srivastava; , S. Srivastav

    2011-01-01

    The paper, illustrated with graphs, discusses the impact of global warming on şora & fauna, its underlying causes, and attempts to trim down it with the collaboration of all individuals. The paper relates that, as an outcome of global warming, climate changes have reached anomalous levels with rainfall and hurricanes of unusual intensity. Everyday gases such as carbon dioxide are released to warm the earth, allowing it to be a place that can be inhabited by şora & fauna. Howev...

  11. Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

  12. Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

    2014-05-01

    Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the

  13. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Richard T

    2011-11-01

    Before the end of this century, tropical rainforests will be subject to climatic conditions that have not existed anywhere on Earth for millions of years. These forests are the most species-rich ecosystems in the world and play a crucial role in regulating carbon and water feedbacks in the global climate system; therefore, it is important that the probable impacts of anthropogenic climate change are understood. However, the recent literature shows a striking range of views on the vulnerability of tropical rainforests, from least to most concern among major ecosystems. This review, which focuses on the impact of rising temperatures, examines the evidence for and against high vulnerability, identifies key research needs for resolving current differences and suggests ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. IMPACT OF Global Warming on Trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nasrullah Khan [COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan); Naeem Abas [2Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Gujrat, Gujrat (Pakistan); Norman Mariun [University Putra Malaysia, Faculty of Engineering, UPM Serdang, Serdang (Malaysia)

    2008-09-30

    Trees store CO{sub 2}, drive food chain, produce oxygen and cause cooling effects through the transpiration process. However, increasing forests to cool the planet needs a lot of care regarding locations and types of trees. Initially it was thought that the city trees fight climate change but later it was found that only tropical trees do the best. Ozone absorption in soil affects its natural carbon sequestration capability. Interaction of plants and soil with changing atmosphere and climate is very complex and not yet understood. Some crops like cotton, wheat and rice are more productive in elevated CO{sub 2} but their response at high temperatures needs further studies (GWDTR, 1997-2007; ITGW, 1990-2008). Use of CO{sub 2} as input raw material in fuel cells might be a revolutionary innovation but there is a long way to go ahead. At this moment we can only start energy education to cope up the time to come. On average CO{sub 2} concentration has been increasing at rate of 2.25ppm/yr from 2004 to 2008 but later from 2007 to 2008 it has been found increasing exponentially at rate of 4ppm/yr. It continues to increase at this rate even after oil peaking then it might exceed 500ppm by 2040-2050. CO{sub 2} concentration in atmosphere was 280 ppm before industrial revolution and in last few centuries it has increased to 385 ppm at an average annual rate of 2 ppm. Weeds normally show poor response to high CO{sub 2} concentrations but crops, fruits and vegetables flourish well. Previous draught cycle was only three years long but recent draught cycle is much longer than earlier (IGWT, 1997-2008). However, few trees in the same constellation are still quite healthy and alive. Some trees were seen dead even close to water canals. Based on literature review and observations recorded in this study it is concluded that high CO{sub 2} induced heat wave (global warming) is responsible for helping beetles and wood ants to eat trees roots and stem to kill them by starvation. The

  16. Likely impact of global warming on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topping, J.

    1992-01-01

    Over the last couple of years there has been mounting evidence that the human costs of rapid global warming are likely to be concentrated especially in developing countries and that some countries may be gravely affected. Climate impacts research has until recently been focused principally on a handful of more affluent countries, but studies of climate impacts on developing countries are now under way and preliminary results are likely to be available for many areas of the world within the next year

  17. Monetary and social macroeconomic impact of equivalent energy production strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lattes, Robert; Thiriet, Lucien

    1981-01-01

    This current report updates a previous report (February 1979) and brings to light many new factors; a comparative analysis of global impacts is presented, particular emphasis being given to large scale equilibria, and equivalent, but different energy strategies and policies. The way in which different energy strategies might reduce externally imposed constraints is examined in detail, i.e. enabling higher economic growth to be achieved, and unemployment to be reduced without increasing or even with a decrease in the external balance-of-payments deficit. A reference electricity generating program (realized with coal, oil or uranium) similar to the medium and long term French nuclear program was retained. Attention was given to ensure that the ratio between the amount of electricity generated and the total electricity requirements remained realistic. This was also true for the ratio between the amount of nuclear origin generated electricity and the total amount of electricity generated [fr

  18. Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies for foam building insulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, S.K.; Fairchild, P.D.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS) have been used as blowing agents in foam insulation, as the working fluids in cooling and refrigeration equipment, and as solvents in general and precision cleaning applications since their introduction in the 1930s. The number of applications and volumes of CFCs used grew at a tremendous pace during the 1960s and 1970s, but in the mid-1980s it was confirmed that these extremely useful chemicals contribute to the destruction of stratospheric zone and that they are the primary cause of the CFCs have also been found to be second only to carbon dioxide as a factor causing increased greenhouse warming. These chemicals are being phased out of use rapidly to protect the ozone layer and it is very important that the replacements for CFCs do not result in a net increase in global warming by introducing less efficient processes that lead to higher energy use and increased carbon dioxide emissions. A study was conducted to identify those alternative chemicals and technologies that could replace CFCs in energy related applications before the year 2000, and to assess the total potential impact of those alternatives on global warming. The analysis for this project included an estimate of the direct effects from the release of blowing agents, refrigerants, and solvents into the atmosphere and the indirect effects of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy use for commercial and residential building insulation, household and commercial refrigeration, building and automobile air conditioning, and general metal and electronics solvent cleaning. This paper focuses on those aspects of the study relevant to building insulation. In general the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon alternatives for CFCs lead to large and sometimes dramatic reductions in total equivalent warming impact, lifetime equivalent C0 2 emissions (TEWI). Most of the reductions result from decreased direct effects without significant changes in energy use

  19. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; hide

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  20. Global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies: Combining fluorocarbon and CO2 effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are on their way out, due to their role in stratospheric ozone depletion and the related international Montreal Protocol agreement and various national phaseout timetables. As the research, engineering development, and manufacturing investment decisions have ensued to prepare for this transition away from CFCs, the climate change issue has emerged and there has recently been increased attention on the direct global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, there has been less focus on the indirect global warming effect arising from end-use energy changes and associated CO 2 emissions. A study was undertaken to address these combined global warming effects. A concept of Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) was developed for combining the direct and indirect effects and was used for evaluating CFC-replacement options available in the required CFC transition time frame. Analyses of industry technology surveys indicate that CFC-user industries have made substantial progress toward near-equal energy efficiency with many HCFC/HFC alternatives. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the direct effect in many applications and stress energy efficiency when searching for suitable CFC alternatives. For chillers, household refrigerators, and unitary air-conditioning or heat pump equipment, changes in efficiency of only 2--5% would have a greater effect on future TEWI than completely eliminating the direct effect

  1. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  2. 77 FR 33237 - Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement, Death Valley National...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-05

    ... Valley Warm Springs Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement, Death Valley National Park, Inyo... an Environmental Impact Statement for the Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan, Death Valley... analysis process for the Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan for Death Valley [[Page 33238...

  3. The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J.T.; Liu, H.; Flanner, M.G.; Chambers, S.D.; Jin, Y.; Hess, P.G.; Pfister, G.; Mack, M.C.; Treseder, K.K.; Welp, L.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Harden, J.W.; Goulden, M.L.; Lyons, E.; Neff, J.C.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Zender, C.S.

    2006-01-01

    We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ?? 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 ?? 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

  4. The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

    2006-11-17

    We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

  5. The regions and global warming: Impacts and response strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    To date, much of the attention given to global warming in scientific research as well as in policy development has focused on the global picture. International negotiations and agreements to stabilize, and eventually reduce, greenhouse gas emissions are very important. By themselves, however, they are not sufficient to address global warming. Regional strategies are also needed. They can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and they will be the most effective way to mitigate the consequences of global warming. Adaptive strategies must respond to local and regional conditions. In many countries, subnational jurisdictions such as states and provinces or community organizations can already take effective actions without direction from their national government or waiting for international agreements. An important factor in defining regional approaches is the disparate consequences of climate change for developed and developing areas. Different strategies will also be needed for industrial and agricultural regions. Wealthy industrial regions may be better able to develop capital-intensive, adaptive infrastructure than regions with fewer discretionary resources where people are more vulnerable to the vagaries of weather patterns. On the other hand, regions that rely on indigenous knowledge and local resources may be better equipped to make incremental adaptations and more willing to modify life-styles. Ultimately, all climate change effects are experienced in specific places and effective response depends upon local action. We recognize that individual localities cannot solve a problem of global proportions by acting alone. However, a regional strategy can supplement international and national action and be the focal point for addressing risks in the unique social and economic context of a particular area. These meetings discussions dealt with the impacts and implications of climate change on such things as agriculture, forestry, and policy

  6. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  7. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane [School of Economics, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, 00100, Nairobi (Kenya)

    2009-05-15

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  8. New electric technologies to reduce global warming impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtright, H.A.

    1994-01-01

    Advanced electric technologies hold significant potential to reduce global warming impact through reduction of primary fuel needed to power end-use applications. These reductions can occur in two forms: (1) reduced kilowatt-hour usage and power plant emissions through efficiency improvements and technological enhancements of existing electrically-driven applications; (2) the development of new electric technologies to replace traditional fossil-fuel driven applications which can result in less overall primary energy consumption and lower overall emissions. Numerous new electric technologies are presently being developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. The technologies reviewed in this paper include: Microwave Fabric Dryer, Advanced Heat Pumps, Heat Pump Water Heater, Infrared Sand Reclaimer, Freeze Concentration, Membrane Water Recovery, Microwave Petrochemical Production, Infrared Drying, and Electric Vehicles. Full commercialization of these technologies can result in significant energy savings and CO 2 reductions, in addition to improving the competitiveness of businesses using these technologies

  9. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  10. Impact velocity vs. target hardness relationships for equivalent response of cask structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.F.; Chen, J.C.; Witte, M.C.; Fischer, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper, impact velocity vs. target hardness relationships for cask structures are reviewed. The relationships are based on equivalent cask responses in terms of equal deceleration or similar cask damages. By examining several past cask or container tests as well as some analytical results, some conclusions can be drawn about the relationship between target hardness and equivalent impact velocities. This relationship clearly shows that the cask response to impact is cask-dependent and that the rigid sphere impact model results in an unconservative estimate of equivalent velocity

  11. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  12. Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

    2010-06-15

    One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate

  13. Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: Results from a semiarid temperate steppe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

    2010-01-01

    One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13 W m -2 with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10 cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 o C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 o C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 o C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 o C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 o C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40 cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate warming.

  14. A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, H.M.; Sampath, R.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Rossiter, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The potential economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming are examined at the farm level. Three models of the relevant climatic, agronomic, and economic processes are developed and linked to address climate change impacts and agricultural adaptability. Several climate warming severity. The results indicate that grain farmers in southern Minnesota can effectively adapt to a gradually changing climate (warmer and either wetter or drier) by adopting later maturing cultivars, changing crop mix, and altering the timing of field operations to take advantage of a longer growing season resulting from climate warming

  15. Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Hans A

    2008-01-01

    This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.

  16. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

  17. Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

  18. Computer-based tests: The impact of test design and problem of equivalency

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Květon, Petr; Jelínek, Martin; Vobořil, Dalibor; Klimusová, H.

    -, č. 23 (2007), s. 32-51 ISSN 0747-5632 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA406/99/1052; GA AV ČR(CZ) KSK9058117 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7025918 Keywords : Computer-based assessment * speeded test * equivalency Subject RIV: AN - Psychology Impact factor: 1.344, year: 2007

  19. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for

  20. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuichi Kano

    Full Text Available Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more

  1. Quantifying impacts of nitrogen use in European agriculture on global warming potential.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de W.; Kros, J.; Reinds, G.J.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper summarizes current knowledge on the impacts of changes of nitrogen (Nr) use in agriculture on the global warming potential (GWP) by its impact on carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from agricultural and terrestrial nonagricultural systems and from

  2. Microclimate impacts of passive warming methods in Antarctica: implications for climate change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.; Huiskes, A.H.L.; Convey, P.; Sinclair, B.J.; Lebouvier, M.; van de Vijver, B.; Wall, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    Passive chambers are used to examine the impacts of summer warming in Antarctica but, so far, impacts occurring outside the growing season, or related to extreme temperatures, have not been reported, despite their potentially large biological significance. In this review, we synthesise and discuss

  3. The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott B.; Kociuba, Greg [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-11-15

    The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean, from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west - is one of the world's most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Nino, for example, the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate, ecosystems, agriculture, and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century, consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show, in stark contrast to expectations, that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century, not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti, but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC, it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural, internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the

  4. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  5. Impacts on river systems under 2 °C warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaman, A.M.; Molla, M.K.; Pervin, I.A.; Mahbubur Rahman, S.M.; Haider, A.S.; Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.

    2017-01-01

    Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable due to the combined impacts of sea level rise, rainfall and runoff variability, and changes in cyclone patterns. This paper presents the application of an integrated modelling framework used to investigate climate change impacts when global averaged surface

  6. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jin; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conversion technologies, crop residue gasification has been regarded as promising owing to its higher energy efficiency than that of direct combustion. However, prior to large-scale application of crop residue gasification, the lifetime environmental performance should be investigated to shed light on sustainable strategies. As traditional static life cycle assessment (LCA) does not include temporal information for dynamic processes, we proposed a dynamic life cycle assessment approach, which improves the static LCA approach by considering time-varying factors, e.g., greenhouse gas characterization factors and energy intensity. As the gasification project can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) discharge compared with traditional direct fuel combustion, trade-offs between the benefits of global warming mitigation and the impact on global warming of crop residue gasification should be considered. Therefore, indicators of net global warming mitigation benefit and global warming impact mitigation period are put forward to justify the feasibility of the crop residue gasification project. The proposed dynamic LCA and indicators were then applied to estimate the life cycle global warming impact of a crop residue gasification system in China. Results show that the crop residue gasification project has high net global warming mitigation benefit and a short global warming impact mitigation period, indicating its prominent potential in alleviating global warming impact. During

  7. Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region. PMID:28832555

  8. The impact of global warming on the automotive industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannappel, Ralf

    2017-08-01

    One cause of global warming of the earth's atmosphere is the emission of human made gases (methane, CO2, nitrous oxygen, etc.) into the environment. Of the total global CO2 emissions the transportation sector contributes to about 14%. In order to control the emissions of the automotive sector, in all major countries (USA, Europe, China, Japan) of the world, tough emissions targets were being set to reduce the vehicle traffic's contribution of CO2. These are derived from the global climate conference' target to limit the maximum temperature increase of the earth of 2 degrees Celsius until 2100. In order to achieve these stringent targets the automotive industry will face a major change in its drivetrain. It will move from combustion to electrical engines. The technical realization of these engines will most likely be battery and fuel cell driven propulsion systems. In order to achieve that transition a major effort is required in 4 industrial areas, i.e. growing electrical charging infrastructure, lowering battery cost, increasing the battery-electric vehicle ranges and developing new environmental friendly hydrogen production methods.

  9. Depletion of fossil fuels and the impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, M.; Kverndokk, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper combines the theory of optimal extraction of exhaustible resources with the theory of greenhouse externalities, to analyze problems of global warming when the supply side is considered. The optimal carbon tax will initially rise but eventually fall when the externality is positively related to the stock of carbon in the atmosphere. It is shown that the tax will start falling before the stock of carbon in the atmosphere reaches its maximum. If there exists a non-polluting backstop technology, it will be optimal to extract and consume fossil fuels even when the price of fossil fuels is equal to the price of the backstop. The total extraction is the same as when the externality is ignored, but in the presence of the greenhouse effect, it will be optimal to slow the extraction and spread it over a longer period. If, on the other hand, the greenhouse externality depends on the rate of change in the atmospheric stock of carbon, the evolution of the optimal carbon tax is more complex. It can even be optimal to subsidize carbon emissions to avoid future rapid changes in the stock of carbon, and therefore future damages. 22 refs., 3 figs

  10. What do global warming impacts really mean to U.S. industry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bendel, W.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper will explore real-world impacts that global warming could have on US industry. The question of dealing with global warming is, to some extent, an exercise in probability or relative risk management. The difficult part is separating fact from fiction. There is another issue that arises in this intense debate regarding impacts on business and policy. This is the question of whether the impacts are real or only perceived. As the authors have been seen in several environmental situations, the difference between a real or perceived impact can be academic, since a perceived risk often produces real impacts. This paper presents a discussion on what companies can and should do to minimize the perceived risk of global warming on their bottom lines. That is, the basic question is, how can businesses today manage this risk so that objective business decisions can be made? Problems that could be directly or indirectly embedded in the global warming controversy are examined. These include financial, engineering, and international aspects of global climate change. This discussion will include possible impacts on the utility, agricultural, insurance, and financial industries

  11. Impact of global warming on the energetics of lower tropospheric ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Two oceanic anticyclones, one over Pacific and the other over Atlantic are sources of energy ... Northward transport of sensible heat during CLP1 changes to southward during CLP2. Larger ... tion because of its impact on the regional climate.

  12. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Providing REgional Climates for Impacts ... The change is evaluated towards the end of present ... For a country like India, where the economy of the ... The influence of green- .... Mean sea level pressure pattern of the PRECIS simulated cyclonic storm.

  13. IMPACT2C: Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, D.; Kotova, L.; Impact2C Team

    2012-04-01

    Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C demand, that information is provided to society by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits. The new project IMPACT2C is supported by the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme as a 4 year large-scale integrating project. IMPACT2C is coordinated by the Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. IMPACT2C enhances knowledge, quantifies climate change impacts, and adopts a clear and logical structure, with climate and impacts modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs, as well as potential responses, within a pan-European sector based analysis. The project utilises a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team and assesses effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions. IMPACT2C introduces key innovations. First, harmonised socio-economic assumptions/scenarios will be used, to ensure that both individual and cross-sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C (1.5°C) scenario for both impacts and adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry. Second, it has a core theme of uncertainty, and will develop a methodological framework integrating the uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In so doing, analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty will be enhanced. Finally, a cross-sectoral perspective is adopted to complement the sector analysis. A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions (e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world's most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the

  14. A Comparative Study on the Impact of Global Warming of Applying Low Carbon Factor Concrete Products

    OpenAIRE

    Su-Hyun Cho; Chang-U Chae

    2015-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment techniques have been developed as a result of the worldwide efforts to reduce the environmental impact of global warming. By using the quantification method in the construction industry, it is now possible to manage the greenhouse gas is to systematically evaluate the impact on the environment over the entire construction process. In particular, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions at the production stage of construction material occu...

  15. The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced-Growth-Equivalent: An Application of FUND

    OpenAIRE

    David Anthoff; Richard S. J. Tol

    2008-01-01

    The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalents (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For comparable welfare economic assumptions as the Stern Review, we calculate lower changes in BGE between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model FUND than the Stern ...

  16. Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

  17. Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

    2011-02-01

    To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

  18. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Interactive effects of warming, eutrophication and size structure: impacts on biodiversity and food-web structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binzer, Amrei; Guill, Christian; Rall, Björn C; Brose, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: Warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: Communities of similarly sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Nonrandom extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Impacts of climate warming on industrial management of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dueymes, E.; Guidez, J.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change is an undeniable fact and it will imply 3 consequences. First, the climate will be warmer on average and particularly in summer. Secondly, there will be less snow, a retreat of glaciers, and less contribution through melting to river flow. Thirdly, there will be a lower rate of flow for rivers with an increase of their temperature. As for storms, no increase of events or intensity can be infer from statistical data. The first impact will be on the cooling capacity of power plants settled on river banks. Another impact will be the construction of adequate embankments for seaside plants to counter the continuous rise of the sea level. The future generation of plants will be set either on seaside sites either with cooling towers. The climate situation extrapolated to 2100 has been taking into account for the design and construction of the EPR on the Flamanville site. (A.C.)

  2. Impacts and effects of ocean warming on intertidal rocky habitats

    OpenAIRE

    Hawkins, Stephen J.; Evans, A J; Firth, L B; Genner, Martin J; Herbert, R J H; Adams, L C; Moore, P J; Mieszkowska, N; Thompson, R.C.; Burrows, M.T.; Fenberg, P.B.

    2016-01-01

    • Intertidal rocky habitats comprise over 50% of the shorelines of the world, supporting a diversity of marine life and providing extensive ecosystem services worth in the region of US$ 5-10 trillion per year. • They are valuable indicators of the impacts of climate change on the wider marine environment and ecosystems. • Changes in species distributions, abundance and phenology have already been observed around the world in response to recent rapid climate change. • Species-level responses w...

  3. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz

    2017-01-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between

  4. Biochemical impacts of Hg in Mytilus galloprovincialis under present and predicted warming scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Francesca; Almeida, Ângela; Henriques, Bruno; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Figueira, Etelvina; Pereira, Eduarda; Freitas, Rosa

    2017-12-01

    The interest in the consequences of climate change on the physiological and biochemical functioning of marine organisms is increasing, but the indirect and interactive effects resulting from warming on bioconcentration and responsiveness to pollutants are still poorly explored, particularly in terms of cellular responses. The present study investigated the impacts of Hg in Mytilus galloprovincialis under control (17°C) and warming (21°C) conditions, assessing mussels Hg bioconcentration capacity, metabolic and oxidative status after 14 and 28days of exposure. Results obtained showed greater impacts in mussels exposed for 28days in comparison to 14days of exposure. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the increase in temperature from 17 to 21°C reduced the bioconcentration of Hg by M. galloprovincialis, which may explain higher mortality rates at 17°C in comparison to 21°C. Lower Hg concentration at 21°C in mussels tissue may result from valves closure for longer periods, identified by reduced energy reserves consumption at higher temperature, which in turn might also contributed to higher oxidative stress in organisms exposed to this condition. The highest LPO levels observed in mussels exposed to higher temperatures alone indicate that warming conditions will greatly affect M. galloprovincialis. Furthermore, the present study showed that the impacts induced by the combination of Hg and warming were similar to the ones caused by increased temperature acting alone, mainly due to increased antioxidant defenses in organisms under combined effects of Hg and warming, suggesting that warming was the factor that mostly contributed to oxidative stress in mussels. Although higher mortality was observed in individuals exposed to 17°C and Hg compared to organisms exposed to Hg at 21°C, the oxidative stress induced at higher temperature may generate negative consequences on mussels reproductive and feeding capacity, growth and, consequently, on population

  5. Warming Early Mars by Impact Degassing of Reduced Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, R. M.; Zahnle, K.; Barlow, N. G.

    2018-01-01

    Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form collision induced absorptions (CIA) involving H2 and/or CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power in a predominately CO2 atmosphere to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. Surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level for CIA to be effective. Atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2- 10% H2 can sustain surface environments favorable for liquid water. Smaller concentrations of H2 are sufficient if CH4 is also present. If thick CO2 atmospheres with percent level concentrations of reduced gases are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox for Mars, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks. In this paper we focus on impact delivered reduced gases.

  6. Cross-cultural equivalence in translations of the oral health impact profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacEntee, Michael I; Brondani, Mario

    2016-04-01

    The Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP) has been translated for comparisons across cultural boundaries. This report on a systematic search of literature published between 1994 and 2014 aims to identify an acceptable method of translating psychometric instruments for cross-cultural equivalence, and how they were used to translate the OHIP. An electronic search used the keywords 'cultural adaptation', 'validation', 'Oral Health Impact Profile' and 'OHIP' in MEDLINE and EMBASE databases supplemented by reference links and grey literature. It included papers on methods of cross-cultural translation and translations of the OHIP for dentulous adults and adolescents, and excluded papers without translational details or limited to specific disorders. The search identified eight steps to cross-cultural equivalence, and 36 (plus three supplemental) translations of the OHIP. The steps involve assessment of (i) forward/backward translation by committee, (ii) constructs, (iii) item interpretations, (iv) interval scales, (v) convergent validity, (vi) discriminant validity, (vii) responsiveness to clinical change and (viii) pilot tests. Most (>60%) of the translations involved forward/backward translation by committee, item interpretations, interval scales, convergence, discrimination and pilot tests, but fewer assessed the underlying theory (47%) or responsiveness to clinical change (28%). An acceptable method for translating quality of life-related psychometric instruments for cross-cultural equivalence has eight procedural steps, and most of the 36 OHIP translations involved at least five of the steps. Only translations to Saudi Arabian Arabic, Chinese Mandarin, German and Japanese used all eight steps to claim cultural equivalence with the original OHIP. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  8. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  9. Warm-up Practices in Elite Boxing Athletes: Impact on Power Output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunniffe, Brian; Ellison, Mark; Loosemore, Mike; Cardinale, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Cunniffe, B, Ellison, M, Loosemore, M, and Cardinale, M. Warm-up practices in elite boxing athletes: Iimpact on power output. J Strength Cond Res 31(1): 95-105, 2017-This study evaluated the performance impact of routine warm-up strategies in elite Olympic amateur boxing athletes and physiological implications of the time gap (GAP) between warm-up and boxing activity. Six male boxers were assessed while performing standardized prefight warm-up routines. Core and skin temperature measurements (Tcore and Tskin), heart rate, and upper- and lower-body power output (PO) were assessed before and after warm-up, during a 25-minutes GAP and after 3 × 2 minutes rounds of sparring. Reflected temperature (Tc) was also determined using high-resolution thermal images at fixed time-points to explore avenues for heat loss. Despite individual differences in warm-up duration (range 7.4-18.5 minutes), increases in Tcore and Tskin occurred (p ≤ 0.05). Corresponding increases (4.8%; p ≤ 0.05) in countermovement jump (CMJ) height and upward-rightward shifts in upper-body force-velocity and power-velocity curves were observed. Athletes remained inactive during the 25-minutes GAP with a gradual and significant increase in Tc occurring by the end of GAP suggesting the likelihood of heat loss. Decreases in CMJ height and upper-body PO were observed after 15 minutes and 25 minutes GAP (p ≤ 0.05). By the end of GAP period, all performance variables had returned to pre-warm-up values. Results suggest routine warm-ups undertaken by elite boxers have acute effects on power-generating capacity. Gradual decreases in performance variables are evident with inactivity and seem related to alterations in body temperature. Considering the constraints of major competitions and time spent in air conditioned holding areas before fights, practitioners should be aware of the potential of nullifying the warm-up effects.

  10. Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea

    2017-04-01

    The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

  11. Fresh, frozen, or ambient food equivalents and their impact on food waste generation in Dutch households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Anke M; Nijenhuis-de Vries, Mariska A; Boer, Eric P J; Kremer, Stefanie

    2017-09-01

    In Europe, it is estimated that more than 50% of total food waste - of which most is avoidable - is generated at household level. Little attention has been paid to the impact on food waste generation of consuming food products that differ in their method of food preservation. This exploratory study surveyed product-specific possible impacts of different methods of food preservation on food waste generation in Dutch households. To this end, a food waste index was calculated to enable relative comparisons of the amounts of food waste from the same type of foods with different preservation methods on an annual basis. The results show that, for the majority of frozen food equivalents, smaller amounts were wasted compared to their fresh or ambient equivalents. The waste index (WI) proposed in the current paper confirms the hypothesis that it may be possible to reduce the amount of food waste at household level by encouraging Dutch consumers to use (certain) foods more frequently in a frozen form (instead of fresh or ambient). However, before this approach can be scaled to population level, a more detailed understanding of the underlying behavioural causes with regard to food provisioning and handling and possible interactions is required. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Synergistic impacts of global warming on the resilience of coral reefs

    OpenAIRE

    Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent epizootics have removed important functional species from Caribbean coral reefs and left communities vulnerable to alternative attractors. Global warming will impact reefs further through two mechanisms. A chronic mechanism reduces coral calcification, which can result in depressed somatic growth. An acute mechanism, coral bleaching, causes extreme mortality when sea temperatures become anomalously high. We ask how these two mechanisms interact in driving future reef state (coral cover...

  13. Multistressor impacts of warming and acidification of the ocean on marine invertebrates' life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Maria; Przeslawski, Rachel

    2013-10-01

    Benthic marine invertebrates live in a multistressor world where stressor levels are, and will continue to be, exacerbated by global warming and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. These changes are causing the oceans to warm, decrease in pH, become hypercapnic, and to become less saturated in carbonate minerals. These stressors have strong impacts on biological processes, but little is known about their combined effects on the development of marine invertebrates. Increasing temperature has a stimulatory effect on development, whereas hypercapnia can depress developmental processes. The pH, pCO2, and CaCO3 of seawater change simultaneously with temperature, challenging our ability to predict future outcomes for marine biota. The need to consider both warming and acidification is reflected in the recent increase in cross-factorial studies of the effects of these stressors on development of marine invertebrates. The outcomes and trends in these studies are synthesized here. Based on this compilation, significant additive or antagonistic effects of warming and acidification of the ocean are common (16 of 20 species studied), and synergistic negative effects also are reported. Fertilization can be robust to near-future warming and acidification, depending on the male-female mating pair. Although larvae and juveniles of some species tolerate near-future levels of warming and acidification (+2°C/pH 7.8), projected far-future conditions (ca. ≥4°C/ ≤pH 7.6) are widely deleterious, with a reduction in the size and survival of larvae. It appears that larvae that calcify are sensitive both to warming and acidification, whereas those that do not calcify are more sensitive to warming. Different sensitivities of life-history stages and species have implications for persistence and community function in a changing ocean. Some species are more resilient than others and may be potential "winners" in the climate-change stakes. As the ocean will change more gradually over

  14. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  15. Impact of response criteria (tibia ash weight vs. percent) on phytase relative non phytate phosphorus equivalance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W; Angel, R; Kim, S-W; Jiménez-Moreno, E; Proszkowiec-Weglarz, M; Plumstead, P W

    2015-09-01

    The current study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of using tibia ash percentage or ash weight as the response criteria on estimated phytase relative equivalence. Straight run broilers were fed treatment (Trt) diets from 7 to 21 d age (6 birds/pen, 8 pens/Trt). The corn-soy based Trt were formulated to contain 0.80% Ca and 4 non-phytate phosphorus (nPP) concentrations (0.20, 0.27, 0.34, and 0.40%). Monocalcium phosphate was the inorganic phosphate source added to achieve 4 different dietary nPP concentrations and against which the nPP relative equivalence of phytase was determined. A 6-phytase (Danisco Animal Nutrition, DuPont Industrial Biosciences, Marlborough, UK) was added at 500 or 1,000 phytase unit ( FTU: )/kg to the 0.20% nPP diet resulting 6 total Trts. Tibia ash was determined at 21 d age. Phytase fed at 500 or 1,000 FTU/kg increased tibia ash weight and ash percentage compared to that of birds fed 0.20% nPP diet without phytase (Pphytase nPP relative equivalence. The R2 obtained from pen value regressions were 0.81 and 0.84, for tibia ash weight and percentage, respectively. Ash percentage from birds fed 500 and 1,000 FTU phytase/kg fell within the range obtained with the MCP additions. Ash weight (842 mg/tibia) from birds fed 1,000 FTU phytase/kg exceeded (Pphytase/kg Trt. The nPP relative equivalence in birds fed 500 FTU phytase/kg were 0.117 and 0.168% based on ash percentage and weight, respectively (Pphytase/kg was 0.166% for ash percentage. Results suggested that ash weight better reflects the amount of bone mineralization as compared to ash percentage and using ash percentage may lead to an underestimation of phytase efficacy. © 2015 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  16. An Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of Different Commercial Supermarket Refrigeration Systems Using Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beshr, Mohamed [University of Maryland, College Park; Aute, Vikrant [University of Maryland, College Park; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL; Radermacher, Reinhard [University of Maryland, College Park

    2014-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems consumed 1.21 Quads of primary energy in 2010 and are known to be a major source for refrigerant charge leakage into the environment. Thus, it is important to study the environmental impact of commercial supermarket refrigeration systems and improve their design to minimize any adverse impacts. The system s Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) was presented as a comprehensive metric with the aim of calculating the equivalent mass of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere throughout its lifetime, from construction to operation and destruction. In this paper, an open source tool for the evaluation of the LCCP of different air-conditioning and refrigeration systems is presented and used to compare the environmental impact of a typical multiplex direct expansion (DX) supermarket refrigeration systems based on three different refrigerants as follows: two hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants (R-404A, and R-407F), and a low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant (N-40). The comparison is performed in 8 US cities representing different climates. The hourly energy consumption of the refrigeration system, required for the calculation of the indirect emissions, is calculated using a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of system charge and power plant emission factor on the LCCP results. Finally, we performed an uncertainty analysis to determine the uncertainty in total emissions for both R-404A and N-40 operated systems. We found that using low GWP refrigerants causes a considerable drop in the impact of uncertainty in the inputs related to direct emissions on the uncertainty of the total emissions of the system.

  17. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  18. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  19. Global warming's impact on the performance of GSHP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Nordell, Bo [Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleaa University of Technology, SE-97187 Luleaa (Sweden)

    2011-05-15

    Since heating and cooling systems of buildings consume 30-50% of the global energy consumption, increased efficiency of such systems means a considerable reduction in energy consumption. Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) are likely to play a central role in achieving this goal due to their high energy efficient performance. The efficiency of GSHP depends on the ground temperature, heating and cooling demands, and the distribution of heating and cooling over the year. However, all of these are affected by the ongoing climatic change. Consequently, global warming has direct effects on the GSHP performance. Within the framework of current study, heating and cooling demands of a reference building were calculated for different global warming scenarios in different climates i.e. cold, mild and hot climate. The prime energy required to drive the GSHP system is compared for each scenario and two configurations of ground heat exchangers. Current study shows that the ongoing climatic change has significant impact on GSHP systems. (author)

  20. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-01-01

    Most atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil, which become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of the climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is likely to increase methane concentrations within the atmosphere, possibly leading to further heating, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. Investigators explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although they found this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity that should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/.

  1. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

    1980-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

  2. Impacts of twenty years of experimental warming on soil carbon, nitrogen, moisture and soil across alpine/subarctic tundra communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    M. Alatalo, Juha; K. Jägerbrand, Annika; Juhanson, Jaanis

    2017-01-01

    High-altitude and alpine areas are predicted to experience rapid and substantial increases in future temperature, which may have serious impacts on soil carbon, nutrient and soil fauna. Here we report the impact of 20 years of experimental warming on soil properties and soil mites in three...... contrasting plant communities in alpine/subarctic Sweden. Long-term warming decreased juvenile oribatid mite density, but had no effect on adult oribatids density, total mite density, any major mite group or the most common species. Long-term warming also caused loss of nitrogen, carbon and moisture from...

  3. Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Krokos, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

  4. Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John

    2018-01-29

    In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

  5. Introduction of nuclear power plant for mitigating the impact of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida Nuryatin Finahari

    2008-01-01

    Energy utilization for power plants in Indonesia is still highly depending on the burning of fossil fuel like coal, oil, and gas. From the combustion of fossil fuel, greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and N 2 O are produced. An increase of CO 2 gas emission to the atmosphere can block the heat loss from the earth surface and will increase the greenhouse effect that results in the temperature increase of the earth surface (global warming). Global warming can cause a very extreme climate change on earth. One of the solutions to reduce CO 2 gas emission produced by fossil fuel power plants is to utilize the plants with flue gas treatment facility. At such facility, CO 2 gas is reacted with certain mineral based substances thus can be used as base material in food-, pharmaceutical-, construction-, and cosmetic industry. Another alternative to reduce CO 2 gas emission is by replacing fossil fuel power plants with nuclear power plants. Considering the environmental and economic aspects, the nuclear power plant does not emit CO 2 gas, so that the use of nuclear power plant can mitigate the impact of global warming. Based on the operational experience of nuclear power plants in advanced countries, the cost of generating electricity from nuclear power plants is more competitive than that of fossil fuel power plant. (author)

  6. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  7. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  8. A cascade of warming impacts brings bluefin tuna to Greenland waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Payne, Mark; Boje, Jesper

    Rising ocean temperatures are causing marine fish species to shift spatial distributions and ranges, and are altering predator-prey dynamics in food-webs. Most documented cases of species shifts so far involve relatively small species at lower trophic levels, and consider individual species...... since 1985, when temperatures began to rise. The presence of bluefin tuna in this region is likely due to a combination of warm temperatures that are physiologically more tolerable and immigration of an important prey species into the region. We conclude that a cascade of climate change impacts...

  9. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  10. Moderate ocean warming mitigates, but more extreme warming exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A

    2017-09-01

    There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean warming). We investigated the impacts of ocean warming and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted warming of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L -1 ). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn 2+ ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn 2+ ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean warming to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Competition magnifies the impact of a pesticide in a warming world by reducing heat tolerance and increasing autotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Op de Beeck, Lin; Verheyen, Julie; Stoks, Robby

    2018-02-01

    There is increasing concern that standard laboratory toxicity tests may be misleading when assessing the impact of toxicants, because they lack ecological realism. Both warming and biotic interactions have been identified to magnify the effects of toxicants. Moreover, while biotic interactions may change the impact of toxicants, toxicants may also change the impact of biotic interactions. However, studies looking at the impact of biotic interactions on the toxicity of pesticides and vice versa under warming are very scarce. Therefore, we tested how warming (+4 °C), intraspecific competition (density treatment) and exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos, both in isolation and in combination, affected mortality, cannibalism, growth and heat tolerance of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Moreover, we addressed whether toxicant exposure, potentially in interaction with competition and warming, increased the frequency of autotomy, a widespread antipredator mechanism. Competition increased the toxicity of chlorpyrifos and made it become lethal. Cannibalism was not affected by chlorpyrifos but increased at high density and under warming. Chlorpyrifos reduced heat tolerance but only when competition was high. This is the first demonstration that a biotic interaction can be a major determinant of 'toxicant-induced climate change sensitivity'. Competition enhanced the impact of chlorpyrifos under warming for high-latitude larvae, leading to an increase in autotomy which reduces fitness in the long term. This points to a novel pathway how transient pesticide pulses may cause delayed effects on populations in a warming world. Our results highlight that the interplay between biotic interactions and toxicants have a strong relevance for ecological risk assessment in a warming polluted world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Al-Khawaj, Mohammed; Hassani, Ferri

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

  13. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; Worth, Devon E.; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 decreased on average the emissions of N 2 O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO 2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N 2 O, NO and NH 3 flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N 2 O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact

  14. Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G. [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Bangalore (India); Indian Institute of Science, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong [Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA (United States); Nemani, Rama [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO{sub 2} changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ''geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. (orig.)

  15. The Impacts of Atmospheric Moisture Transportation on Warm Sector Torrential Rains over South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuixin Zhong

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Warm Sector Torrential Rains (WSTRs occurring during the outbreak of the monsoon in May of 2015 in South China were studied using surface automatic weather observational data, sounding, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis interim Data (ERA-interim, satellite and radar data, and a four-level nested grid simulation with the finest grid spacing of 1 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF. The results show that the extreme precipitation event, which had maximum rainfall amounts of 406.3 mm in 10 h and 542.2 mm in 24 h on 20 May 2015, and was characterized by its rapid development and its highly concentrated and long duration of heavy rainfall, occurred over the trumpet-shaped topography of Haifeng. The simulation results indicated that the South China Sea (SCS atmospheric moisture transportation (AMT was crucial in triggering the precipitation of the WSTR over South China. The simulation of the WSTR was conducted by using the total energy-mass flux scheme (TEMF, which provided a reasonable simulation of the circulation and the vertical profile in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL as well as the estimation of the precipitation. The AMT, which extends from the Beibu Gulf and the South China Sea to the coastal areas and provides Shanwei with a considerable amount of moisture in the boundary layer, and the effects within the PBL, which include orographic effects, an extra low-level jet, and a high-energy tongue characterized by a high-potential pseudo-equivalent temperature tongue with a warm and moist southwesterly wind, were the important large-scale factors causing the WSTR.

  16. Warm Water Entrainment Impacts and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of a Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Pilot Plant Offshore Oahu, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauer, Whitney Blanchard

    Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy technology that uses the temperature difference of large volumes of cold deep and warm surface seawater in tropical regions to generate electricity. One anticipated environmental impact of OTEC operations is the entrainment and subsequent mortality of ichthyoplankton (fish eggs and larvae) from the withdrawal of cold and warm seawater. The potential ichthyoplankton loss from the warm water intake was estimated for a proposed 10 MW OTEC pilot plant offshore Oahu, HI based on ambient vertical distribution data. The estimated losses due to entrainment from the warm water intake were 8.418E+02 larvae/1000 m3, 3.26E+06 larvae/day, and 1.19E+09 larvae/year. The potential entrained larvae/year is 1.86 X greater than at the Kahe Generating Station (Kapolei, HI), a 582 MW oil-fired power plant. Extrapolating to age-1 equivalence (9.2E+02 and 2.9E+02 yellowfin and skipjack tuna, respectively), the estimated yearly losses from warm water entrainment of yellowfin and skipjack tuna fish eggs and larvae represent 0.25-0.26 % and 0.09-0.11 % of Hawaii's commercial yellowfin and skipjack tuna industry in 2011 and 2012. An environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) was developed for the proposed OTEC plant operating for 20 and 40 years with availability factors of 0.85, 0.95, and 1.0 to determine the global warming potential (GWP) and cumulative energy demand (CED) impacts. For a 20 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, energy return on investment (EROI), and energy payback time (EPBT) ranged from 0.047 to 0.055 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.678 to 0.798 MJ/kWh, 4.51 to 5.31 (unitless), and 3.77 to 4.43 years, respectively. For a 40 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, EROI, and EBPT ranged from 0.036 to 0.043 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.527 to 0.620 MJ/kWh, 5.81 to 6.83 (unitless), and 5.85 to 6.89 years, respectively. The GWP impacts are within the range of renewable energy technologies and less than conventional electricity

  17. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B; Smith, Ward N; Desjardins, Raymond L; Worth, Devon E; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S

    2014-08-15

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Impact of elevated precipitation, nitrogen deposition and warming on soil respiration in a temperate desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Ping; Cui, Xiaoqing; Gong, Yanming; Li, Kaihui; Goulding, Keith; Liu, Xuejun

    2018-04-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is the most important source of carbon dioxide emissions from soil to atmosphere. However, it is unclear what the interactive response of Rs would be to environmental changes such as elevated precipitation, nitrogen (N) deposition and warming, especially in unique temperate desert ecosystems. To investigate this an in situ field experiment was conducted in the Gurbantunggut Desert, northwest China, from September 2014 to October 2016. The results showed that precipitation and N deposition significantly increased Rs, but warming decreased Rs, except in extreme precipitation events, which was mainly through its impact on the variation of soil moisture at 5 cm depth. In addition, the interactive response of Rs to combinations of the factors was much less than that of any single-factor, and the main response was a positive effect, except for the response from the interaction of increased precipitation and high N deposition (60 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Although Rs was found to show a unimodal change pattern with the variation of soil moisture, soil temperature and soil NH4+-N content, and it was significantly positively correlated to soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH, a structural equation model found that soil temperature was the most important controlling factor. Those results indicated that Rs was mainly interactively controlled by the soil multi-environmental factors and soil nutrients, and was very sensitive to elevated precipitation, N deposition and warming. However, the interactions of multiple factors largely reduced between-year variation of Rs more than any single-factor, suggesting that the carbon cycle in temperate deserts could be profoundly influenced by positive carbon-climate feedback.

  19. The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

  20. Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

    2017-07-05

    Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

  1. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  2. A laboratory comparison of the global warming impact of five major types of biomass cooking stoves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacCarty, N.; Ogle, D.; Still, D.; Bond, T.; Roden, C. [Aprovecho Research Center, Creswell, OR (United States)

    2008-06-15

    With over 2 billion of the world's population living in families using biomass to cook every day, the possibility of improved stoves helping to mitigate climate change is generating increasing attention. With their emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane, and black carbon, among other substances, is there a cleaner, practical option to provide to the families that will need to continue to use biomass for cooking? This study served to help quantify the relative emissions from five common types of biomass combustion in order to investigate if there are cleaner options. The laboratory results showed that for situations of sustainable harvesting where CO{sub 2} emissions are considered neutral, some improved stoves with rocket-type combustion or fan assistance can reduce overall warming impact from the products of incomplete combustion (PICs) by as much as 50-95%. In non-sustainable situations where fuel and CO{sub 2} savings are of greater importance, three types of improved combustion methods were shown to potentially reduce warming by 40-60%. Charcoal-burning may emit less CO{sub 2} than traditional wood-burning, but the PIC emissions are significantly greater.

  3. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D [State Univ. of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY (USA). Lab. for Planetary Atmospheres Research

    1983-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  4. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-02-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  5. The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.

    2011-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

  6. Impact of cool versus warm temperatures on gestation in the aspic viper (Vipera aspis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Catherine Louise; Pastore, Jean-Henri; Bonnet, Xavier

    2013-07-01

    Previous experimental data suggested that digestion and growth rates are not impaired under cool constant temperature (23°C) in a viviparous snake (Vipera aspis). These results challenged the widespread notion that both elevated temperatures (e.g. 30°C) and temperature fluctuations are required for digestion and growth in temperate climate reptiles. Here, we investigated the impact of constant cool temperatures on another physiological performance that is crucial to population persistence: gestation. At the time when reproductive females were midway through vitellogenesis, we placed ten reproductive and two non-reproductive female aspic vipers at each of two contrasted constant temperature conditions: cool (23°C) versus warm (28°C). Sixty percent of the females placed at 28°C gave birth to healthy offspring, suggesting that constant warm body temperatures were compatible with normal offspring production. Conversely, none of the cool females gave birth to healthy offspring. A blister disease affected exclusively cool pregnant females. Apparently, the combination of cool temperatures plus gestation was too challenging for such females. Our results suggest that reproduction is more thermally sensitive than digestion or growth, indeed gestation faltered under moderately cool thermal constraints. This sensitivity could be a crucial factor determining the capacity of this species to colonize different habitats. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The impact of different aperture distribution models and critical stress criteria on equivalent permeability in fractured rocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisdom, Kevin; Bertotti, Giovanni; Nick, Hamid

    2016-01-01

    Predicting equivalent permeability in fractured reservoirs requires an understanding of the fracture network geometry and apertures. There are different methods for defining aperture, based on outcrop observations (power law scaling), fundamental mechanics (sublinear length-aperture scaling...... in the fraction of open fractures. For the applied stress conditions, Coulomb predicts that 50% of the network is critically stressed, compared to 80% for Barton-Bandis peak shear. The impact of the fracture network on equivalent permeability depends on the matrix hydraulic properties, as in a low...

  8. Evaluation of nitrous oxide as a substitute for sulfur hexafluoride to reduce global warming impacts of ANSI/HPS N13.1 gaseous uniformity testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiao-Ying; Barnett, J. Matthew; Amidan, Brett G.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Flaherty, Julia E.; Antonio, Ernest J.; Glissmeyer, John A.

    2018-03-01

    The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard requires gaseous tracer uniformity testing for sampling associated with stacks used in radioactive air emissions. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a greenhouse gas with a high global warming potential, has long been the gas tracer used in such testing. To reduce the impact of gas tracer tests on the environment, nitrous oxide (N2O) was evaluated as a potential replacement to SF6. The physical evaluation included the development of a test plan to record percent coefficient of variance and the percent maximum deviation between the two gases while considering variables such as fan configuration, injection position, and flow rate. Statistical power was calculated to determine how many sample sets were needed, and computational fluid dynamic modeling was utilized to estimate overall mixing in stacks. Results show there are no significant differences between the behaviors of the two gases, and SF6 modeling corroborated N2O test results. Although, in principle, all tracer gases should behave in an identical manner for measuring mixing within a stack, the series of physical tests guided by statistics was performed to demonstrate the equivalence of N2O testing to SF6 testing in the context of stack qualification tests. The results demonstrate that N2O is a viable choice leading to a four times reduction in global warming impacts for future similar compliance driven testing.

  9. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Desjardins, Raymond L., E-mail: ray.desjardins@agr.gc.ca [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Worth, Devon E. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Zentner, Robert [Swift Current Research Station, Swift Current, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada); Malhi, Sukhdev S. [Melfort Research Farm, PO Box 1240, Melfort, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada)

    2014-08-15

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} decreased on average the emissions of N{sub 2}O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO{sub 2} emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N{sub 2}O, NO and NH{sub 3} flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N{sub 2}O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact.

  10. Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

  11. A new international environmental order? An assessment of the impact of the global warming epistemic community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, H.A.

    1993-12-01

    Global warming is a problem which ignores national boundaries, making international cooperation essential. The role of epistemic communities, or those composed of professionals who share a commitment to a common causal model and a set of political values, in affecting the international response to the global warming problem is examined. It is claimed that the epistemic global warming community can affect the policy process, both domestically and internationally, and facilitate cooperation in an era of ecological interdependence. This claim is explored and eventually supported through the examination of two case studies: the responses of Canada and Britain to the issue of global warming between 1988 and November 1990. The case studies are supplemented with a more general discussion of the issues surrounding the international politics of global warming through the same period. Through these studies, it is found that a global warming community can be identified and that its efforts have played a significant role in framing the global warming issue. 121 refs

  12. Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to

  13. The impact of climate change on the balanced growth equivalent: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalents (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For

  14. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  15. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  16. Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.

    2016-01-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.

  17. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  18. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  19. Economic consequences of global warming. What will be the impact of global warming on our economies and on our societies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumergues, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    This publication is a white paper and an extract from an article entitled 'Greenhouse gas: stakes of reduction and counting methods'. It aims at giving an assessment of modifications our societies must be prepared to, at identifying the riskiest sectors and actions to be undertaken for the adaptation to climate change. The author addresses the following issues: strategic stakes of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (disturbances of the world market, transports, energy reserves, job market, banking and finance, investment and insurance, and so on, evolution of impacts with respect to temperature increase), a threatened biodiversity (examples and assessment of variations and even destruction of species), evolving agriculture practices (evolution of crop dates, of animal diseases, of efficiencies, of flora, of species, and identification of possible adaptation actions), actual human migrations (examples), expected impact on tourism (reduced snowfalls, coastal erosion, natural risks), an evolution of job market (in transport, in energy production, in steel industry, in the building sector), and consequences of climate impacts on the insurance sector (costs of floods, tempests, dry periods and heat waves). In conclusion, the author proposes a table which indicates the main sector interactions, i.e. the existence of a relationship between effects due to climate change (loss of water resource, use of wood resource, development of transmissible animal and vegetal diseases, modification of local agriculture productions, modification of fishing resources, disease transmission by travellers, microbial developments, disease development, energy consumption in the built environment, floods, coastal risks, fires) and sectors (agriculture, forest, water, health, tourism, energy, infrastructures, natural risks, biodiversity)

  20. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

  1. Synergistic impacts of global warming on the resilience of coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent epizootics have removed important functional species from Caribbean coral reefs and left communities vulnerable to alternative attractors. Global warming will impact reefs further through two mechanisms. A chronic mechanism reduces coral calcification, which can result in depressed somatic growth. An acute mechanism, coral bleaching, causes extreme mortality when sea temperatures become anomalously high. We ask how these two mechanisms interact in driving future reef state (coral cover) and resilience (the probability of a reef remaining within a coral attractor). We find that acute mechanisms have the greatest impact overall, but the nature of the interaction with chronic stress depends on the metric considered. Chronic and acute stress act additively on reef state but form a strong synergy when influencing resilience by intensifying a regime shift. Chronic stress increases the size of the algal basin of attraction (at the expense of the coral basin), whereas coral bleaching pushes the system closer to the algal attractor. Resilience can change faster—and earlier—than a change in reef state. Therefore, we caution against basing management solely on measures of reef state because a loss of resilience can go unnoticed for many years and then become disproportionately more difficult to restore.

  2. A preliminary look at the impacts of warming on the federal Columbia River power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephan, N.

    2008-01-01

    Studies have indicated that the precipitation changes resulting from climatic warming are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural variability until late in the 21. century. This study presented scenarios and projected changes for the Federal Columbia River power system that used volume and runoff data in monthly time-steps. A streamflow model of data from the previous 44 years was also used. The region is currently meeting 50 per cent of its loads with clean hydro-generation, and is now examining ways of limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as electricity loads continue to grow. The impacts of climate change were compared with projected loads up to the year 2040. Flow targets for regional fish operations peak between April and July. Volume changes in water as a result of hydroelectricity projects in the region have also been simulated. Monitoring tools and meteorological data were presented as well as watershed run-off data from 1929 to 2008. Policies related to climate change continue to be challenged by both legal and political issues as well as a lack of strategic planning. It was concluded that accurate system modelling is needed to avoid the impacts of costly and un-informed decision-making processes. tabs., figs

  3. A methodology for the evaluation of global warming impact on soil moisture and runoff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdes, J.B.; Seoane, R.S.; North, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. Precipitation and temperature patterns, soil moisture requirements, and the physical structure of the vegetation canopy play important roles in the hydrologic system of drainage basins. Changes in these phenomena, because of a buildup Of CO 2 and other trace gases, have the potential to affect the quantity, quality, timing, and spatial distribution of water available to satisfy the many demands placed on the resource by society. In this work a methodology for the evaluation of impact on soil moisture concentration and direct surface runoff is presented. The methodology integrates stochastic models of hydroclimatic input variables with a model of water balance in the soil. This allows the derivation of the probability distribution of soil moisture concentration and direct surface runoff for different combinations of climate and soil characteristics, ranging from humid to semi-arid and arid. These PDFs asses, in a comprehensive manner, the impact that climate change have on soil moisture and runoff and allow the water resources planner to make more educated decisions in the planning and design of water resources systems. The methodology was applied to three sites in Texas. To continue in the line of research suggested by Delworth and Manabe the authors computed the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the spectra of both precipitation inputs and soil moisture concentration outputs for all scenarios of climate change

  4. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  5. Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

    2018-04-03

    Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

  6. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  7. Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas-fir growth with warming temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie

    2017-12-01

    The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant

  8. Electric cars : The climate impact of electric cars, focusing on carbon dioxide equivalent emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Ly, Sandra; Sundin, Helena; Thell, Linda

    2012-01-01

    This bachelor thesis examines and models the emissions of carbon dioxide equivalents of the composition of automobiles in Sweden 2012. The report will be based on three scenarios of electricity valuation principles, which are a snapshot perspective, a retrospective perspective and a future perspective. The snapshot perspective includes high and low values for electricity on the margin, the retrospective perspective includes Nordic and European electricity mix and the future perspective includ...

  9. Life-cycle global warming and non-renewable energy consumption impacts of ammonia fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Are, Kristian Ray Angelo; Razon, Luis; Tan, Raymond Girard

    2015-01-01

    The use of ammonia (NH 3 ) as transportation fuel had been a recent topics of research interest. NH 3 has fuel properties that are better than those of other alternative fuels, such as it high energy density and simpler storage. However, it has a low flame speed and would require to be mixed with a secondary fuel forming a dual fuel system. Moreover, current industrial methods of NH 3 production are major global warming potential (GWP) and non-renewable energy consumption (NREC) impact contributors. This study assessed the life-cycle GWP and NREC of using different NH 3 -secondary fuel mixtures. Four fuel mixtures were considered, wherein NH 3 is mixed with gasoline, diesel, hydrogen or dimethyl ether (DME). Also, our processes of NH 3 production were considered: steam reforming (SR), partial oxidation (PO), which are industrial methods and two biomass-based (alternative) processes wherein cereal straw (Salix) and cyanobacteria (Anabaena ATCC 33047) are used feedstocks. Contribution, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses (via Monte Carlo simulation) were conducted for life-cycle interpretation. Dominance matrix tool was also employed to aid in drawing conclusions. The study concludes that the environmental impacts of NH 3 fuel are dependent on (i) NH 3 production methods and (ii) type of NH 3 fuel mixture. NH 3 -diesel fuel mixtures have lower GWP compared to pure diesel, while NH 3 -gasoline fuel mixture have higher GWP compared to pure gasoline. Because of large uncertainty of the NREC pure gasoline and pure diesel, no firm conclusion can be made about the NREC ammonia-diesel and ammonia-gasoline. If fuel mixture types are compared, NH 3 -H 2 mixtures have the lowest GWP and NREC among the four, though this would entail designing new engines. Over-all, it is shown that fuel systems involving biomass-based NH 3 have lower environmental impacts as compared to conventionally-produced NH 3 counterparts. (author)

  10. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  11. Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the

  12. Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selden, Rebecca L; Batt, Ryan D; Saba, Vincent S; Pinsky, Malin L

    2018-01-01

    Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO 2 . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Overland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

  14. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebők, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M.; Goerlitz, Holger R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey. PMID:24335559

  15. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H; Schuurmans, Dale

    2015-10-14

    Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 7 12777 of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

  16. Transgenerational plasticity mitigates the impact of global warming to offspring sex ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donelson, Jennifer M; Munday, Philip L

    2015-08-01

    Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebok, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M; Goerlitz, Holger R

    2014-02-06

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey.

  18. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Elgendi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress, improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

  19. Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rath

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories. However, there are still many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It is shown here that this signal also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries by producing errors in the determination of the steady state geothermal gradient. However, the impact on estimates of past temperature changes is weaker. For deeper boreholes, the curvature of the long-term signal is significant. A correction based on simple assumptions about glacial–interglacial temperature changes shows promising results, improving the extraction of millennial scale signals. The same procedure may help when comparing observed borehole temperature profiles with the results from numerical climate models.

  20. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R.; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H.; Schuurmans, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy. PMID:26473907

  1. Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Äijälä, M; Artaxo, P; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Ehn, M; Gilardoni, S; Heikkinen, L; Kulmala, M; Petäjä, T; Reddington, C L S; Rizzo, L V; Swietlicki, E; Vignati, E; Wilson, C

    2018-01-11

    The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m -2 ) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO 2 , surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

  2. Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huanjiong; Rutishauser, This; Tao, Zexing; Zhong, Shuying; Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu

    2017-02-01

    The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, S T ) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that S T has significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in S T over the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in S T over decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that S T shows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days °C -1 ). This result suggests that the significant decrease in S T over the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the S T changes in warming scenarios are still uncertain.

  3. Sponge erosion under acidification and warming scenarios: differential impacts on living and dead coral.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubler, Amber D; Furman, Bradley T; Peterson, Bradley J

    2015-11-01

    Ocean acidification will disproportionately impact the growth of calcifying organisms in coral reef ecosystems. Simultaneously, sponge bioerosion rates have been shown to increase as seawater pH decreases. We conducted a 20-week experiment that included a 4-week acclimation period with a high number of replicate tanks and a fully orthogonal design with two levels of temperature (ambient and +1 °C), three levels of pH (8.1, 7.8, and 7.6), and two levels of boring sponge (Cliona varians, present and absent) to account for differences in sponge attachment and carbonate change for both living and dead coral substrate (Porites furcata). Net coral calcification, net dissolution/bioerosion, coral and sponge survival, sponge attachment, and sponge symbiont health were evaluated. Additionally, we used the empirical data from the experiment to develop a stochastic simulation of carbonate change for small coral clusters (i.e., simulated reefs). Our findings suggest differential impacts of temperature, pH and sponge presence for living and dead corals. Net coral calcification (mg CaCO3  cm(-2)  day(-1) ) was significantly reduced in treatments with increased temperature (+1 °C) and when sponges were present; acidification had no significant effect on coral calcification. Net dissolution of dead coral was primarily driven by pH, regardless of sponge presence or seawater temperature. A reevaluation of the current paradigm of coral carbonate change under future acidification and warming scenarios should include ecologically relevant timescales, species interactions, and community organization to more accurately predict ecosystem-level response to future conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Ocean Warming and CO2-Induced Acidification Impact the Lipid Content of a Marine Predatory Gastropod

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roselyn Valles-Regino

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming and acidification are current global environmental challenges impacting aquatic organisms. A shift in conditions outside the optimal environmental range for marine species is likely to generate stress that could impact metabolic activity, with consequences for the biosynthesis of marine lipids. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the lipid content of Dicathais orbita exposed to current and predicted future climate change scenarios. The whelks were exposed to a combination of temperature and CO2-induced acidification treatments in controlled flowthrough seawater mesocosms for 35 days. Under current conditions, D. orbita foot tissue has an average of 6 mg lipid/g tissue, but at predicted future ocean temperatures, the total lipid content dropped significantly, to almost half. The fatty acid composition is dominated by polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA 52% with an n-3:6 fatty acid ratio of almost 2, which remains unchanged under future ocean conditions. However, we detected an interactive effect of temperature and pCO2 on the % PUFAs and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids were significantly reduced by elevated water temperature, while both the saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids were significantly reduced under increased pCO2 acidifying conditions. The present study indicates the potential for relatively small predicted changes in ocean conditions to reduce lipid reserves and alter the fatty acid composition of a predatory marine mollusc. This has potential implications for the growth and survivorship of whelks under future conditions, but only minimal implications for human consumption of D. orbita as nutritional seafood are predicted.

  5. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

    2005-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  6. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  7. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  8. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  9. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

  10. On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

    2016-04-01

    The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

  11. Catastrophic impact of typhoon waves on coral communities in the Ryukyu Islands under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongo, Chuki; Kawamata, Hideki; Goto, Kazuhisa

    2012-06-01

    Typhoon-generated storm waves generally cause mechanical damage to coral communities on present-day reefs, and the magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase in the near future as a result of global warming. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios of reef ecosystems is of prime interest. This study assesses the current status of coral communities on Ibaruma reef, Ryukyu Islands, on the basis of field observations, engineering and fluid dynamic models, and calculations of wave motion, and predicts the potential effects of a super-extreme typhoon (incident wave height,H = 20 m; wave period, T = 20 s) on the reef. On the present-day reef, massive corals occur in shallow lagoons and tabular corals occur from the reef crest to the reef slope. The observed distribution of corals, which is frequently attacked by moderate (H = 10 m, T = 10 s) and extreme (H = 10 m, T = 15 s) typhoons, is consistent with the predictions of engineering models. Moreover, this study indicates that if a super-extreme typhoon attacks the reef in the near future, massive corals will survive in the shallow lagoons but tabular corals on the reef crest and reef slope will be severely impacted. The findings imply that super-extreme typhoons will cause a loss of species diversity, as the tabular corals are important reef builders and are critical to the maintenance of reef ecosystems. Consequently, reef restoration is a key approach to maintaining reef ecosystems in the wake of super-extreme typhoons.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change under the Threat of Global Warming for an Agricultural Watershed of the Kangsabati River

    OpenAIRE

    Sujana Dhar; Asis Mazumdar

    2009-01-01

    The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to conti...

  13. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  14. Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donnelly, Chantal; Greuell, Wouter; Andersson, Jafet; Gerten, Dieter; Pisacane, Giovanna; Roudier, Philippe; Ludwig, Fulco

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate

  15. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND WOMEN IN INDIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durgadas Mukhopadhyay [Delhi University, Delhi (India)

    2008-09-30

    The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the world can expect more heat waves and droughts, heavier rains, stronger storms and rising sea levels due to global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia- where the climate is already more extreme and arid regions are common-are likely to be most affected. Large numbers of people could be forced to find new homes as their living environments are submerged, or food and water become scarce. Up to 250 million people could be displaced by climate-related disasters by the middle of the century. Recent World Bank researcher has found that the impacts of a one-meter rise in sea level will be profound in the developing world, potentially turning 56 million people in 84 developing countries into environmental refugees. In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 per cent of the nation's population will be displaced with onemeter sea level rise, with very high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Egypt's Nile Delta will be similarly affected with 10.5 per cent of the population at risk and 25 percent of the delta inundated. In South Asia, Bangladesh will have the largest share of land affected. A 2007 cross-country study in Latin America has found strong evidence that agriculture in the region will be vulnerable to the effects of higher temperatures, though these effects are likely to vary from place to place. Deforestation at five percent a decade is steadily depleting a valuable resource base for millions of people who depend on forest for survival. It also contributes to about 20 per cent of annual global CO2 emissions and seriously threatens biodiversity. A world-wide average 3 centigrade increase (compared to pre-industrial temperatures) over the coming decades would results in a range of localized increases that could reach twice as high in some locations. The effect that increase droughts, extreme weather events, tropical storms and sea level rises will

  16. Impact of the addition of cocoa butter equivalent on the volatile compounds profile of dark chocolate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Silva Souza, Cristiano; Block, Jane Mara

    2018-02-01

    The effect of the partial replacement of cocoa butter (CB) by cocoa butter equivalent (CBE) in the release of volatile compounds in dark chocolate was studied. The fatty acid profile, triacylglyceride composition, solid fat content (SFC) and melting point were determined in CB and CBE. Chocolate with CB (F1) and with different content of CBE (5 and 10%-F2 and F3, respectively) were prepared. Plastic viscosity and Casson flow limit, particle size distribution and release of volatile compounds using a solid phase microextraction with gas chromatography (SMPE-GC) were determined in the chocolate samples. The melting point was similar for the studied samples but SFC indicated different melting behavior. CBE showed a higher saturated fatty acid content when compared to CB. The samples showed similar SOS triglyceride content (21 and 23.7% for CB and CBE, respectively). Higher levels of POS and lower POP were observed for CB when compared to CBE (44.8 and 19.7 and 19 and 41.1%, respectively). The flow limit and plastic viscosity were similar for the studied chocolates samples, as well as the particle size distribution. Among the 27 volatile compounds identified in the samples studied, 12 were detected in significantly higher concentrations in sample F1 (phenylacetaldehyde, methylpyrazine, 2,6-dimethylpyrazine, 2-ethyl-5-methylpyrazine, 2-ethyl-3,5-dimethylpyrazine, tetramethylpyrazine, trimethylpyrazine, 3-ethyl-2,5-dimethylpyrazine, phenethyl alcohol, 2-acetylpyrrole, acetophenone and isovaleric acid). The highest changes were observed in the pyrazines group, which presented a decrease of more than half in the formulations where part of the CB was replaced by the CBE.

  17. An equivalence study of interview platform: Does videoconference technology impact medical school acceptance rates of different groups?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballejos, Marlene P; Oglesbee, Scott; Hettema, Jennifer; Sapien, Robert

    2018-02-14

    Web-based interviewing may be an effective element of a medical school's larger approach to promotion of holistic review, as recommended by the Association of American Medical Colleges, by facilitating the feasibility of including rural and community physicians in the interview process. Only 10% of medical schools offer videoconference interviews to applicants and little is known about the impact of this interview modality on the admissions process. This study investigated the impact of overall acceptance rates using videoconference interviews and face-to-face interviews in the medical school selection process using an equivalence trial design. The University of New Mexico School of Medicine integrated a videoconferencing interview option for community and rural physician interviewers in a pseudo-random fashion during the 2014-2016 admissions cycles. Logistic regression was conducted to examine whether videoconference interviews impacted acceptance rates or the characteristics of accepted students. Demographic, admissions and diversity factors were analyzed that included applicant age, MCAT score, cumulative GPA, gender, underrepresented in medicine, socioeconomic status and geographic residency. Data from 752 interviews were analyzed. Adjusted rates of acceptance for face-to-face (37.0%; 95% CI 28.2, 46.7%) and videoconference (36.1%; 95% CI 17.8, 59.5%) interviews were within an a priori ± 5% margin of equivalence. Both interview conditions yielded highly diverse groups of admitted students. Having a higher medical college admission test score, grade point average, and self-identifying as disadvantaged increased odds of admission in both interview modalities. Integration of the videoconference interview did not impact the overall acceptance of a highly diverse and qualified group of applicants, and allowed rural and community physicians to participate in the medical school interview process as well as allowed campus faculty and medical student committee members

  18. Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of a rock pool community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrand, Erwann; Riera, Pascal; Bohner, Olivier; Coudret, Jérôme; Schlicklin, Ferdinand; Derrien, Marie; Martin, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    This study examined experimentally the combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of rock pool multi-specific assemblages, composed of coralline algae, fleshy algae, and grazers. Natural rock pool communities experience high environmental fluctuations. This may confer physiological advantage to rock pool communities when facing predicted acidification and warming. The effect of ocean acidification and warming have been assessed at both individual and assemblage level to examine the importance of species interactions in the response of assemblages. We hypothesized that rock pool assemblages have physiological advantage when facing predicted ocean acidification and warming. Species exhibited species-specific responses to increased temperature and pCO 2 . Increased temperature and pCO 2 have no effect on assemblage photosynthesis, which was mostly influenced by fleshy algal primary production. The response of coralline algae to ocean acidification and warming depended on the season, which evidenced the importance of physiological adaptations to their environment in their response to climate change. We suggest that rock pool assemblages are relatively robust to changes in temperature and pCO 2 , in terms of primary production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Investigation of whether various types of radioactive waste are equivalent in terms of the radiological impact associated with their disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearn, H.S.; Smith, G.M.; Davis, J.P.; Hill, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the possibility that various types of waste are equivalent in terms of the risks associated with their disposal in so far as they are viewed by different sections of society. If such a framework can be established it could be used as an aid to decisions as to whether central disposal facilities, to accept waste from several countries, should be constructed. Details are presented of assumed radionuclide inventories for a representative range of radioactive wastes, calculations and results of the radiological impacts of their disposal, and illustrative methods for weighting the various components of impact which when summed provide an overall measure of impact. Five sets of weighting factors have been devised which are intended to represent the views of a) the radiological protection community, b) those with a pro-nuclear industry view, c) those who oppose nuclear power on safety grounds, d) the inhabitants of the country receiving wastes for disposal, and e) the inhabitants of the country dispatching wastes. On the basis of the calculated weighted radiological impacts it is demonstrated how conclusions can be drawn about general views on the disposal of each waste, about likely attitudes to the export of wastes from one country for disposal in another, and attitudes to exchanging wastes between countries. The study is preliminary and of limited scope. However, the results show that the general methodology is practicable and could be applied in a wider ranging investigation

  20. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  1. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  2. Impact of global warming on permafrost conditions in a coupled GCM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, M.; Christensen, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    emissions (SRES A2 issued by IPCC), we estimate the amounts that the permafrost zones moves poleward and how the thickness of the active layer deepens in response to the global warming by the end of the 21st century. The simulation indicates a 30-40% increase in active-layer thickness for most...

  3. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; Vliet, van Michelle T.H.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform

  4. Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeppesen, E.; Meerhoff, M.; Holmgren, K.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; Declerck, Steven A.J.; De Meester, L.; Søndergaard, M.; Lauridsen, T.; Bjerring, R.; Conde-Porcuna, J-M.; Mazzeo, N.; Iglesias, C.; Reizenstein, M.; Malmquist, H.J.; Liu, Z.; Balayla, D.; Lazzaro, X.

    2010-01-01

    Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation

  5. Environmental impact assessment caused by global warming. Chikyu ondanka no eikyoryo hyoka to sono taisaku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oshima, K [Geological Survey of Japan, Tokyo (Japan)

    1991-09-01

    This paper describes the considerations on the influence of the global warming on the environment, and the discussions on the measures against the climatic changes. With respect to the environmental effects by the global warming, the considerations were given based on the studies on the effects of mainly the Quaternary climatic changes on the surface sea water temperatures, sea level and animal flocks. If the magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated to occur during the 21st century is lower than that have taken place in the past 10,000 years during which the agricultural production has developed to a full-scale, there would be no fear of drastically changing the ecology on earth. If the estimation of future climatic and environmental changes becomes possible, then four basic positions could be selected for establishing the contermeasure plans. That is, the first is the measures to correspond to birth-rebirth transmigration; the second is the measures to carbon dioxide disposition upon concluding that the cause for the global warming is the atmospheric increase of carbon dioxide concentration, measures for conservation and international cooperation; the third is to deal with the warming environments; and the fourth is the means to reconstruct the earth. While a number of countermeasures may be prepared, Which of them should be selected will be decided by the amount of effects. 15 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric eGazeau

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, specimens were reared in aquarium tanks and exposed to elevated conditions of temperature (+3 °C and acidity (-0.3 pH units for a period of 10 months. The whole system comprised a factorial experimental design with 4 treatments (3 aquaria per treatment: control, lowered pH, elevated temperature and lowered pH/elevated temperature. Mortality was estimated on a weekly basis and every 2 months, various biometrical parameters and physiological processes were measured: somatic and shell growth, metabolic rates and body fluid acid-base parameters. Mussels were highly sensitive to warming, with 100 % mortality observed under elevated temperature at the end of our experiment in October. Mortality rates increased drastically in summer, when water temperature exceeded 25 °C. In contrast, our results suggest that survival of this species will not be affected by a pH decrease of ~0.3 in the Mediterranean Sea. Somatic and shell growth did not appear very sensitive to ocean acidification and warming during most of the experiment, but were reduced, after summer, in the lowered pH treatment. This was consistent with measured shell net dissolution and observed loss of periostracum, as well as uncompensated extracellular acidosis in the lowered pH treatment indicating a progressive insufficiency in acid-base regulation capacity. However, based on the present dataset, we cannot elucidate if these decreases in growth and regulation capacities after summer are a consequence of lower pH levels during that period or a consequence of a combined effect of acidification and warming. To summarize, while ocean acidification will potentially contribute to lower growth rates, especially in summer when mussels are exposed to sub-optimal conditions, ocean warming will likely pose more serious threats to Mediterranean mussels in this region in the coming

  7. Impacts and Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic: Engaging Diverse Learners in Geoscience Education and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Elena; Spellman, Katie; Fabbri, Cindy; Verbyla, David; Yoshikawa, Kenji; Fochesatto, Gilberto; Comiso, Josefino; Chase, Malinda; Jones, Debra; Bacsujlaky, Mara

    2016-04-01

    A warming climate has changed the timing of the seasons in the Arctic and elsewhere. Our project will engage learners in the investigation of the shifting seasons' impacts on vegetation, soils, hydrology, infrastructure, livelihoods, and communities and the feedbacks between these factors. Primary and secondary students, pre- and in-service teachers and lifelong learners will use historical and current National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) data, NASA experts, and the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) methods to help uncover the surprises from and consequences of earlier springs, warmer and later falls, changing ice cover, later freeze-up and earlier break-up of rivers and lakes. Key objectives are to: 1) provide new opportunities to bring NASA assets to learners of all ages, 2) enhance Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) learning and understanding of the Earth system, 3) improve STEM instruction, 4) enhance STEM experience of undergraduate students, and 5) increase participation of groups historically underrepresented in STEM such as Native Americans who are also more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Incorporating issues of local importance with national and global implications, into educational experiences will make learning relevant which may be helpful to communities in developing strategies for adaptation. We intend to use NASA assets (e.g. MODIS snow data, NDVI, Cloudsat, and SMAP data), GLOBE methodologies (classic and new ground observations and measurements) to develop and deliver curriculum materials including culturally responsive learning activities, course/modules, professional development workshops, and educational experiences using best practices in pedagogy such as constructivism, inquiry- and place- based, interdisciplinary and systems approach, and cutting-edge technology to reach a variety of target audiences, while improving STEM education. Audiences include K-12 teachers and their

  8. The impact of ICRP 60 recommendations on the dose equivalent in low- and high energy neutron fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakes, J; Schraube, H [GSF-Forschungszentrum Neuberg, D-85758 Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz

    1996-12-31

    The objectives of this study was to determine the impact of the increased risk factors for neutrons after ICRP 60 on the operational dose equivalent quantities at a few neutron fields selected with the respect to cover the broad variety of neutron spectra: (1) Cadarache calibration assembly, with average neutron energy around 0.6 MeV, designed to simulate realistic neutron spectra at workplaces. This assembly is basically composed of an almost spherical {sup 238}U converter irradiated by 14.6 MeV neutrons from an accelerator target, placed at its center, and a scattering chamber consisting of a cylindrical polyethylene duct and a series of additional shieldings; (2) Neutron spectra at exposed workplaces in nuclear power plants; (3) Moderated spectra of {sup 252}Cf fission source; (4) Neutron spectra behind a shielding made of the iron (the average energy 5.,89 MeV) and concrete (the average energy 46.51 MeV), respectively; (5) Cosmic rays induced neutron spectra measured on the top of the Zugspitze (2968 m) where there is the average neutron energy around 40 MeV. From the derived neutron spectra, the mean quality factors and conversion factors h after ICRP 21 and ICRP 60, respectively, were calculated. The dose equivalent conversion factors were taken for the region below 20 MeV, and the energy region above 20 MeV. The results show that the operational quantities were affected predominately in the low energy fields, where the changes are given by a factor of 1,3 for the neutron fields given above. As has been expected, the impact of the new recommendations depends on the shape of the neutron spectra. Therefore, this factor can be much higher in the fields where the intermediate energy region is dominant, which is the case of moderated and scattered spectra at some places in the nuclear power plant and around containers with the spent fuel elements. (J.K.) 9 refs.

  9. Impacts of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise on Service Life of Chloride-Exposed Concrete Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jian Gao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will increase the rate of chloride ingress and the rate of steel corrosion of concrete structures. Furthermore, in coastal (atmospheric marine zones, sea level rise will reduce the distance of concrete structures from the coast and increase the surface chloride content. This study proposes a probabilistic model for analyzing the effects of global warming and sea level rise on the service life of coastal concrete structures. First, in the corrosion initiation stage, an improved chloride diffusion model is proposed to determine chloride concentration. The Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate the service life in the corrosion initiation stage; Second, in the corrosion propagation stage, a numerical model is proposed to calculate the rate of corrosion, probability of corrosion cracking, and service life. Third, overall service life is determined as the sum of service life in the corrosion initiation and corrosion propagation stages. After considering the impacts of global warming and sea level rise, the analysis results show that for concrete structures having a service life of 50 years, the service life decreases by about 5%.

  10. Equivalent Lagrangians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hojman, S.

    1982-01-01

    We present a review of the inverse problem of the Calculus of Variations, emphasizing the ambiguities which appear due to the existence of equivalent Lagrangians for a given classical system. In particular, we analyze the properties of equivalent Lagrangians in the multidimensional case, we study the conditions for the existence of a variational principle for (second as well as first order) equations of motion and their solutions, we consider the inverse problem of the Calculus of Variations for singular systems, we state the ambiguities which emerge in the relationship between symmetries and conserved quantities in the case of equivalent Lagrangians, we discuss the problems which appear in trying to quantize classical systems which have different equivalent Lagrangians, we describe the situation which arises in the study of equivalent Lagrangians in field theory and finally, we present some unsolved problems and discussion topics related to the content of this article. (author)

  11. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

  12. Impact of soil warming on the plant metabolome of Icelandic grasslands

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gargallo-Garriga, A.; Ayala-Roque, M.; Sardans, J.; Bartrons, M.; Granda, V.; Sigurdsson, B. D.; Leblans, N. I.W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, I. A.; Peñuelas, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 3 (2017), č. článku 44. E-ISSN 2218-1989 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015061; GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : Climate change * Geothermal bedrock channels * Grassland * Iceland * Metabolome * Warming Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

  13. Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

    2010-08-24

    The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

  14. Impacts of warming on aquatic decomposers along a gradient of cadmium stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batista, D.; Pascoal, C.; Cássio, F.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of cadmium and temperature on plant-litter decomposition by examining diversity and activity of aquatic fungi and leaf consumption by Limnephilus sp., a typical invertebrate shredder of Iberian streams. Freshly fallen leaves were immersed in a stream to allow microbial colonization, and were exposed in microcosms to a gradient of cadmium (≤11 levels, ≤35 mg L −1 ). Microcosms were kept at 15 °C, a temperature typically found in Iberian streams in autumn, and at 21 °C to simulate a warming scenario. The increase in temperature stimulated leaf decomposition by microbes, fungal reproduction and leaf consumption by the shredder. Conversely, increased cadmium concentrations inhibited fungal reproduction and diversity, and leaf consumption by the invertebrate. Cadmium concentration inhibiting 50% of fungal reproduction, microbial decomposition and leaf consumption by the shredder was higher at 15 °C than at 21 °C, suggesting that higher temperatures can lead to increased metal toxicity to aquatic decomposers. - Highlights: ► We examined the effects of temperature and cadmium on aquatic detritus food-webs. ► Effects were assessed on plant-litter decomposition, fungi and invertebrate shredders. ► Results suggest that warming may increase cadmium toxicity to freshwater decomposers. - Global warming may increase cadmium toxicity to freshwater decomposers with implications to ecosystem processes.

  15. Impact of energy consumption on urban warming and air pollution in Tokyo metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.S.; Hoshi, H.

    1995-01-01

    The rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization due to economic growth and concentration of social function in the urban areas in Japan have had an adverse effect on the urban environment. In most cities, it has become evident that the increase in energy consumption is causing environmental problems, including a temperature rise in the urban atmosphere (urban heat island) and air pollution. This paper reports the results of field observations and three dimensional simulations of the urban heat island using a three-dimensional modelling vorticity-velocity vector potential formation, in the Tokyo metropolitan area. According to the simulation for urban warming in the study area for the year 2031, the maximum temperature of a summer evening (18:00) would exceed 43 degrees celsius, indicating that Tokyo would no longer be comfortable for its inhabitants. It is concluded that in the near future, the problem of the urban heat island will become a more important issue than that of global warming because the rate of urban warming is greater. For this reason, the urban heat island could be fatal to humans unless resolved in the near future. (author). 1 tab., 11 figs., 18 refs

  16. Impacts of Ocean Warming on China's Fisheries Catches: An Application of “Mean Temperature of the Catch” Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Liang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming can strongly impact marine fisheries; notably, it can cause the “mean temperature of the catch” (MTC to increase, an indicator of the tropicalization of fisheries catches. In this contribution, we explore MTC changes in three large marine ecosystems (LMEs along China's coasts, i.e., the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea LMEs, and their relationships to shifts of sea surface temperature (SST. The results show that, while the MTCs began to increase in 1962 in the East China Sea and in 1968 in the Yellow Sea, there was no detectable increase in the South China Sea. There also was a strong relationship between MTC and SST in the Yellow and East China Seas from 1950 to 2010, especially when taking a 3-year time-lag into account. The lack of change of the MTC in the South China Sea is attributed to the relatively small increase in SST over the time period considered, and the fact that the MTC of tropical ecosystems such as the South China Sea is not predicted to increase in the first place, given that their fauna cannot be replaced by another, adapted to higher temperature. Overall, these results suggest that ocean warming is already having an impact on China's marine fisheries, and that policies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed to minimize the increase of these impacts on fisheries.

  17. Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

    2018-06-01

    The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

  18. Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardin, Martin P; Hogg, Edward H; Bernier, Pierre Y; Kurz, Werner A; Guo, Xiao Jing; Cyr, Guillaume

    2016-02-01

    An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO2 ], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree-ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree-ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Reproduced with

  19. Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-09-15

    A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

  20. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  1. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  2. Warming impacts on fish species composition in the Kattegat-Belt Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bryndum, Karoline Minna; MacKenzie, Brian

    Sea temperatures have been rising in the waters near Denmark during the past 1-2 decades and are expected to affect marine populations, species, communities and foodwebs. Here we investigate whether and how the species richness and composition of the marine fish community in the Kattegat and Belt...... of the southern range limits of all species captured in the surveys shows that the mean southern latitudinal limit of the fish community has been decreasing and is also corrrelated with bottom temperatures; these patterns are consistent with immigration of fish from southerly zoogeographic regions. Warm...

  3. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LIFE: LIFE ON EARTH FROM SINGLE-CELLULAR ORGANISMS TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANISMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kartikey Gupta [Grade X, Mayura School, Jaipur (India)

    2008-09-30

    Wherever we look, life can be seen...so many different forms of life, that is, uncountable varieties of animals and plants occupy the whole world today! But, where and how did it all start? The story of evolution is one of the most interesting theories ever put forward. It refers to - the way that simple and small living things eventually changed into much more functional and bigger beings, in course of time. Charles Darwin had explored this mystery, and had provided the reason- Evolution. Evolution is changing of life forms into more functional ones with respect to their changing environment. However, as odd as it may sound, evolution and extinction are closely linked. Because, the better evolved species survives, and throughout the timeline of evolution, there have been many extinction waves. They were all occurred naturally thus proving that the very process of extinction is natural. The earth has seen many variations of global temperature; it has suffered various ice ages, which had also many a times threatened to eradicate most life from the planet. But, every time life has found a way to go on. Therefore, whatever life we see today has resulted from the ongoing long process of evolution. After millions of years, finally we humans have come into existence, and today are the leading species of the world. But, we may possibly be very close to another major extinction wave, the root causes of which are both natural and man-made, but the part played by the latter is much more than the former. Global Warming has now started affecting all kinds of life on the planet, and it is our responsibility as the leading and most intellectual species to try to save our earth. A study reveals that 60% Indian people do not actually know about Global Warming, and that the number of youth aware of Global Warming and Its impacts are much more than the number of adults. About 75% Indians believe that it is the sole responsibility of the government to solve the problems related to

  4. Potential impacts of climate warming on water supply reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Kiparsky

    Full Text Available We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2 °C, 4 °C, and 6 °C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5-21 days. The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2 °C (1.4-2.0%, 4 °C (2.8-3.9%, and 6 °C (4.2-5.8%. In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84-0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75-0.79 under 6 °C warming scenario.

  5. [Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

    2014-12-01

    The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

  6. Impact of generalized dissipative coefficient on warm inflationary dynamics in the light of latest Planck data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila [COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan); Hussain, Shahzad [Aspire College, Department of Mathematics, Hafizabad (Pakistan); Videla, Nelson [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Instituto de Fisica, Valparaiso (Chile)

    2017-10-15

    The warm inflation scenario in view of the modified Chaplygin gas is studied. We consider the inflationary expansion to be driven by a standard scalar field whose decay ratio Γ has a generic power-law dependence with the scalar field φ and the temperature of the thermal bath T. By assuming an exponential power-law dependence in the cosmic time for the scale factor a(t), corresponding to the intermediate inflation model, we solve the background and perturbative dynamics considering our model to evolve according to (1) weak dissipative regime and (2) strong dissipative regime. Specifically, we find explicit expressions for the dissipative coefficient, scalar potential, and the relevant inflationary observables like the scalar power spectrum, scalar spectral index, and tensor-to-scalar ratio. The free parameters characterizing our model are constrained by considering the essential condition for warm inflation, the conditions for the model evolves according to weak or strong dissipative regime, and the 2015 Planck results through the n{sub s}-r plane. (orig.)

  7. Possible impacts of global warming on tundra and boreal forest ecosystems - comparison of some biogeochemical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploechl, M.; Cramer, W.

    1995-06-01

    Global warming affects the magnitude of carbon, water and nitrogen fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere as well as the distribution of vegetation types. Biogeochemical models, global as well as patch models, can be used to estimate the differences between the mean values of annual net primary production (NPP) for the present and for future climate scenarios. Both approaches rely on the prescribed pattern of vegetation types. Structural, rule based models can predict such patterns, provided that vegetation and climate are in equilibrium. The coupling of biogeochemical and structural models gives the opportunity to test the sensitivity of biogeochemical processes not only to climatic change but also to biome shifts. Whether the annual mean NPP of a vegetation type increses or decreases depends strongly on the assumptions about a CO{sub 2} fertilization effect and nitrogen cycling. Results from our coupled model show that, given that direct CO{sub 2} effects are uncertain, (i) average NPP of these northern biomes might decrease under global warming, but (ii) total NPP of the region would increase, due to the northward shift of the taiga biome. (orig.)

  8. Community impacts of mid-May frost event during an anomalously warm spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufkens, K.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Richardson, A. D.; Melaas, E. K.; Bailey, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Friedl, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Global land and ocean surface temperatures of 2010 have gone on record as one of the warmest of the last 131 years. In the northeastern US extraordinarily warm spring temperatures were recorded, averaging +3 °C above the long term mean, causing very early leaf development. However, the entire northeastern US region was hit by a severe frost event. Leveraging the coincidence of an anomalously warm spring and a late spring frost event we assess species specific responses of these combined extremes for three northern hardwood species(sugar maple, American beech, yellow birch) across an elevational gradient. We integrated ground observations with satellite and near-surface remote sensing data to address the following questions: 1) How did different species respond to a gradient in altitude / freezing temperatures? 2) How does phenological strategy influence this response? 3) To what extent were regional effects measurable? 4) How did the late spring frost event alter the carbon balance of a northern hardwood forest? 5) Finally, what changes do we foresee in community ecology? Our results show an early onset for all species, triggered by the anomalously warm spring. However, the three species responded differently to a late spring frost event. Where both yellow birch and American beech remained largely unaffected by frost, by comparison, sugar maple showed severe frost damage with increasing altitude resulting in leaf loss and delayed canopy development. Conservative estimates of gross carbon exchange losses due to the frost event ranged from 63 g C m-2 to 156 g C m-2, or ~5% to ~13 % of the annual gross carbon exchange of a northern hardwood forest. Our results suggest that the additional pressure on forest succession at high altitude range margins due to late spring frost events may provide a competitive advantage for yellow birch and American beech, at the expense of sugar maple. Consequently, a late spring frost does not only affect the short term carbon balance

  9. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  10. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Damm

    2017-08-01

    Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

  11. Warm temperature acclimation impacts metabolism of paralytic shellfish toxins from Alexandrium minutum in commercial oysters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Hazel; Seebacher, Frank; O'Connor, Wayne; Zammit, Anthony; Harwood, D Tim; Murray, Shauna

    2015-09-01

    Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters (Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum. While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum, toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas. The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.

    2016-12-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

  13. Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

    2009-01-01

     Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

  14. [Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

    2015-01-01

    By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

  15. Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z; Footitt, S; Tang, A; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-01-01

    Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Global warming impacts on the biogeochemical functioning of two arctic Cryo-sols in the Salluit region, Nunavik, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouche, Julien

    2014-01-01

    Increased organic matter decomposition rate in Arctic Cryo-sols due to warming and to permafrost thawing can lead to the release of greenhouse gases, thus potentially creating a positive feedback on climate change. We aim to assess the interactions between the thermal regime, the hydric behaviour and the biogeochemical functioning of two different permafrost-affected soils (i.e. Cryo-sols), one being developed in frozen peat (Histic Cryo-sol: H), the other being developed in post-glacial marine clays (Turbic Cryo-sol: T), both in natural conditions and under an experimental warming. Profiles were instrumented in Salluit (Nunavik, Canada; 62 deg. 14'N, 75 deg. 38'W) and monitored during summers 2010 and 2011. Both thermal monitoring and modeling results stressed differences between sites due to the insulating properties of dried peat in summer the active layer at the H site is thinner than at the T site. The induced warming increased CO 2 fluxes in both soils; this impact was however more striking at H even if ecosystem respiration (ER) was lower than at T. Temperature sensitivity of ER (Q 10 ), which decreased with warming, was higher at T than at H. We highlighted that diurnal ER cycles showed hysteretic loops as a function of soil surface temperatures. Linear models performed to explain ER variance were improved when we added daily minimum temperature and thaw front depth at H. In contrast at T, adding wind speed and solar radiation in models improved the ER variance explanation. We showed three specific CO 2 flux dynamics related to northern ecosystems: 1) the large difference of ER depending on soil properties and soil solution composition; 2) environmental variables strongly alter CO 2 fluxes and 3) the diurnal Q 10 variations and the inter annual variability of basal respiration. Our results support the assumption that organic matter decomposition might be the major source of CO 2 at H while plant-derived processes dominated ER at T. Finally, the

  17. The warm meal "foodprint"of the UMCG. Environmental impact of a hospital food system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Politiek, Eline

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY Food is the third largest contributor to human-caused environmental impact (FAO, 2009). Food has an environmental impact on fields like: CO2 emission, energy use, land use, and water use (FAO, 2009). World-wide 30% to 50% of all food is lost or w

  18. Comparing equivalent thermal, high pressure and pulsed electric field processes for mild pasteurization of orange juice: Part II: Impact on specific chemical and biochemical quality parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, L.; Plancken, van der I.; Grauwet, T.; Timmermans, R.A.H.; Mastwijk, H.C.; Matser, A.M.; Hendrickx, M.E.; Loey, van A.

    2011-01-01

    The impact of thermal, high pressure (HP) and pulsed electric field (PEF) processing for mild pasteurization of orange juice was compared on a fair basis, using processing conditions leading to an equivalent degree of microbial inactivation. Examining the effect on specific chemical and biochemical

  19. Variation in sensitivity of large benthic Foraminifera to the combined effects of ocean warming and local impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M

    2017-03-23

    Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.

  20. Using the SUBER model for assessing the impact of cork debarking rotation on equivalent annual annuity in Portuguese stands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulo, J.A.; Tomé, M.

    2017-01-01

    Aim of study: Use the SUBER model to evaluate the influence of the cork debarking rotation period (CDR) on equivalent annual annuity (EAA) value. Area of study: Nine simulated stands, varying in site index (14.4, 15.6, 17.1) and cork quality characteristics (high, medium, low). Material and methods: EAA values were computed considering CDR periods varying from 9 to 14 years, two contrasting structures of cork prices (high and low cork price scenarios), and three discount rate values (0.5%, 2% and 5%). Main results: For discount rates of 0.5% and 2% the impact of different CDR on the EAA is similar. In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, CDR of 9 and 11 years are associated with similar values of EAA. The variation of the CDR in stands characterized by low site index values and/or low cork quality characteristics did not have a relevant effect on the variation of EAA. For the simulations carried out with a discount rate of 5% the EAA decreases with the increase of CDR, indicating that the minimum legal value of 9 years for CDR should be applied. Research highlights: In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, a delay in the debarking may result in a significant increase of cork thickness and, as a result, of cork price. Detailed knowledge of cork and stand characteristics and updated information on cork prices structure and values are essential for the best usage of management tools such as the SUBER model, which can contribute to the decision-making process concerning the debarking operation.

  1. Using the SUBER model for assessing the impact of cork debarking rotation on equivalent annual annuity in Portuguese stands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulo, J.A.; Tomé, M.

    2017-11-01

    Aim of study: Use the SUBER model to evaluate the influence of the cork debarking rotation period (CDR) on equivalent annual annuity (EAA) value. Area of study: Nine simulated stands, varying in site index (14.4, 15.6, 17.1) and cork quality characteristics (high, medium, low). Material and methods: EAA values were computed considering CDR periods varying from 9 to 14 years, two contrasting structures of cork prices (high and low cork price scenarios), and three discount rate values (0.5%, 2% and 5%). Main results: For discount rates of 0.5% and 2% the impact of different CDR on the EAA is similar. In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, CDR of 9 and 11 years are associated with similar values of EAA. The variation of the CDR in stands characterized by low site index values and/or low cork quality characteristics did not have a relevant effect on the variation of EAA. For the simulations carried out with a discount rate of 5% the EAA decreases with the increase of CDR, indicating that the minimum legal value of 9 years for CDR should be applied. Research highlights: In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, a delay in the debarking may result in a significant increase of cork thickness and, as a result, of cork price. Detailed knowledge of cork and stand characteristics and updated information on cork prices structure and values are essential for the best usage of management tools such as the SUBER model, which can contribute to the decision-making process concerning the debarking operation.

  2. Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilbert, David W

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

  3. Impact of global warming and rising CO2 levels on coral reef fishes: what hope for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Philip L; McCormick, Mark I; Nilsson, Göran E

    2012-11-15

    Average sea-surface temperature and the amount of CO(2) dissolved in the ocean are rising as a result of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2). Many coral reef fishes appear to be living close to their thermal optimum, and for some of them, even relatively moderate increases in temperature (2-4°C) lead to significant reductions in aerobic scope. Reduced aerobic capacity could affect population sustainability because less energy can be devoted to feeding and reproduction. Coral reef fishes seem to have limited capacity to acclimate to elevated temperature as adults, but recent research shows that developmental and transgenerational plasticity occur, which might enable some species to adjust to rising ocean temperatures. Predicted increases in P(CO(2)), and associated ocean acidification, can also influence the aerobic scope of coral reef fishes, although there is considerable interspecific variation, with some species exhibiting a decline and others an increase in aerobic scope at near-future CO(2) levels. As with thermal effects, there are transgenerational changes in response to elevated CO(2) that could mitigate impacts of high CO(2) on the growth and survival of reef fishes. An unexpected discovery is that elevated CO(2) has a dramatic effect on a wide range of behaviours and sensory responses of reef fishes, with consequences for the timing of settlement, habitat selection, predator avoidance and individual fitness. The underlying physiological mechanism appears to be the interference of acid-base regulatory processes with brain neurotransmitter function. Differences in the sensitivity of species and populations to global warming and rising CO(2) have been identified that will lead to changes in fish community structure as the oceans warm and becomes more acidic; however, the prospect for acclimation and adaptation of populations to these threats also needs to be considered. Ultimately, it will be the capacity for species to adjust to environmental

  4. The Economic Impact of Global Warming on Livestock Husbandry in Kenya: A Ricardian Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane (School of Economics, Univ. of Nairobi, Nairobi (Kenya))

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The results further suggest possible gains from rising temperatures; losses from increased precipitation, but gains in net revenues resulting from a combined effect of rising temperatures and increased precipitation

  5. TOPICAL REVIEW Warm spraying—a novel coating process based on high-velocity impact of solid particles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seiji Kuroda et al

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, coating processes based on the impact of high-velocity solid particles such as cold spraying and aerosol deposition have been developed and attracting much industrial attention. A novel coating process called 'warm spraying' has been developed, in which coatings are formed by the high-velocity impact of solid powder particles heated to appropriate temperatures below the melting point of the powder material. The advantages of such process are as follows: (1 the critical velocity needed to form a coating can be significantly lowered by heating, (2 the degradation of feedstock powder such as oxidation can be significantly controlled compared with conventional thermal spraying where powder is molten, and (3 various coating structures can be realized from porous to dense ones by controlling the temperature and velocity of the particles. The principles and characteristics of this new process are discussed in light of other existing spray processes such as high-velocity oxy-fuel spraying and cold spraying. The gas dynamics of particle heating and acceleration by the spraying apparatus as well as the high-velocity impact phenomena of powder particles are discussed in detail. Several examples of depositing heat sensitive materials such as titanium, metallic glass, WC–Co cermet and polymers are described with potential industrial applications.

  6. Mass Mortality of Cassin's Auklets, Assessing the Impact of a Warming Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, J.

    2016-02-01

    In Fall/Winter 2014-15, more than 100,000 Cassin's Auklets, Ptychoramphus aleuticus, washed ashore on U.S. West Coast beaches. A small-bodied, zooplanktivorous bird, Cassin's nest in colonies scattered along the Northeast Pacific coastline, with a particular concentration in the Scott Islands, northwest of Vancouver Island, BC where 80% of the world's population ( 3.5M) breeds. Standardized, effort-controlled beach surveys conducted by >500 volunteers for three citizen science organizations (BeachCOMBERS, Beach Watch, COASST) at >225 sites from Cape Flattery, WA to Monterey Bay, CA were used to document the event and contrast it to regionally specific long-term average carcass-fall. Data are abundance of independently verified carcass identifications collected (bi)monthly at known locations and dates, providing an instantaneous index of "new" carcass encounter rate. Two pulses were evident: A small but significant anomaly (+2-3 carcasses/km) in November primarily in California and a much larger (+20-25 carcasses/km) more sustained anomaly in December-January along the Washington and northern Oregon coastline. Four non-exclusive hypotheses were examined: surplus production of young-of-the year (i.e. elevated post-breeding mortality), severity of fall/winter storms (i.e. elevated winterkill), shifts in food diversity (proxied as copepod regional diversity along the Newport Line), and habitat compression calculated as location and relative area of wintering habitat (assessed by GLS-tagged birds) with a monthly SST anomaly event can be explained by the extreme compression of cold water habitat in July-September 2014, trapping dispersing Scott Islands birds as the warm water anomaly expanded eastward, leaving open the question of whether this event was anomalous mortality and/or anomalously high beaching rates.

  7. Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

  8. Impact of global warming on performance of ground source heat pumps in US climate zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Pengyuan; Lukes, Jennifer R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Used morphing method to have downscaled hourly local weather data from GCM. • Selected representative cities in different climate zones in the US for case study on GSHP performance. • Used hourly building simulation tools (eQuest and TRNSYS) to project GSHP performance in future. • Analysis on GSHP performance in 2050 for both residential and office building in the US are conducted. - Abstract: Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) have attracted increasing attention because of their high energy efficiencies. The aim of this paper is to study the performance of (GSHP) in future climate conditions (2040–2069) by using projected future hourly weather data of selected representative cities in the US to estimate future ground temperature change. The projected hourly weather data and estimated ground temperatures are input to an hourly simulation tool (TRNSYS and eQuest for this research), which provides reliable coupling of GSHP system and building performance. The simulation results show that global warming will decrease the energy efficiency of GSHP in US residential buildings because a rise in inlet and outlet water temperature is predicted for GSHP systems during the cooling season and because buildings will become more cooling dominated in the future. For office buildings, although the cooling performance of GSHP will not drop significantly under future climate, the overall energy efficiency for the system will decrease due to the increasing energy consumption of the ground loop pump. In the future, considering the significant ground heat imbalance for GSHP operation, GSHP will become less competitive both economically and technically than it is now in the context of US climate zones

  9. Impact of spring warming on sowing times of cereal, potato and sugar beet in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. KAUKORANTA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Historical data were used to determine if the warm springs experienced in recent decades have influenced time of sowing of spring cereals (barley, wheat and oats, potato and sugar beet in Finland. The start of the thermal growing season was used to represent all climatic factors affecting sowing time. Regional anomalies in sowing and start of growing season were computed for the years 1965–2007. The start of the growing season was 2–2.8 days earlier per decade, with a steeper increase since 1980. Sugar beet sowing advanced 2.5 (since 1980 5.2 and potato planting 3.4 (since 1980 4.5 days per decade, more than expected solely due to earlier starts to the growing season. Sowing of spring cereals advanced 0.6, 0.7 and 1.7 days per decade in the east, north and west respectively (since 1980 1.0, 1.9 and 3.1, with statistically significant trend (p < 0.01 in the west. Earlier sowings can be largely explained by warmer springs, but the trend was not as steep as that for the growing season. This has however not led to increased temperatures during early vegetative phases and thus faster development and increased drought or pest risk, which would have reduced the positive effects of earlier sowing on yield potential. Earlier sowing detected in the west can be explained by changes in spring temperatures, but may also result from economic and technological development. Farmers seem to have adequately adjusted their field activities to the changes in spring temperatures.;

  10. A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainju, Upendra M.

    2016-01-01

    Management practices, such as tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization, may affect net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), but their global impact on cropland soils under different soil and climatic conditions need further evaluation. Available global data from 57 experiments and 225 treatments were evaluated for individual and combined effects of tillage, cropping systems, and N fertilization rates on GWP and GHGI which accounted for CO2 equivalents from N2O and CH4 emissions with or without equivalents from soil C sequestration rate (ΔSOC), farm operations, and N fertilization. The GWP and GHGI were 66 to 71% lower with no-till than conventional till and 168 to 215% lower with perennial than annual cropping systems, but 41 to 46% greater with crop rotation than monocroppping. With no-till vs. conventional till, GWP and GHGI were 2.6- to 7.4-fold lower when partial than full accounting of all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were considered. With 100 kg N ha-1, GWP and GHGI were 3.2 to 11.4 times greater with partial than full accounting. Both GWP and GHGI increased curvilinearly with increased N fertilization rate. Net GWP and GHGI were 70 to 87% lower in the improved combined management that included no-till, crop rotation/perennial crop, and reduced N rate than the traditional combined management that included conventional till, monocopping/annual crop, and recommended N rate. An alternative soil respiration method, which replaces ΔSOC by soil respiration and crop residue returned to soil in the previous year, similarly reduced GWP and GHGI by 133 to 158% in the improved vs. the traditional combined management. Changes in GWP and GHGI due to improved vs. traditional management varied with the duration of the experiment and inclusion of soil and climatic factors in multiple linear regressions improved their relationships. Improved management practices reduced GWP and GHGI compared with traditional management

  11. A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainju, Upendra M

    2016-01-01

    Management practices, such as tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization, may affect net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), but their global impact on cropland soils under different soil and climatic conditions need further evaluation. Available global data from 57 experiments and 225 treatments were evaluated for individual and combined effects of tillage, cropping systems, and N fertilization rates on GWP and GHGI which accounted for CO2 equivalents from N2O and CH4 emissions with or without equivalents from soil C sequestration rate (ΔSOC), farm operations, and N fertilization. The GWP and GHGI were 66 to 71% lower with no-till than conventional till and 168 to 215% lower with perennial than annual cropping systems, but 41 to 46% greater with crop rotation than monocroppping. With no-till vs. conventional till, GWP and GHGI were 2.6- to 7.4-fold lower when partial than full accounting of all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were considered. With 100 kg N ha-1, GWP and GHGI were 3.2 to 11.4 times greater with partial than full accounting. Both GWP and GHGI increased curvilinearly with increased N fertilization rate. Net GWP and GHGI were 70 to 87% lower in the improved combined management that included no-till, crop rotation/perennial crop, and reduced N rate than the traditional combined management that included conventional till, monocopping/annual crop, and recommended N rate. An alternative soil respiration method, which replaces ΔSOC by soil respiration and crop residue returned to soil in the previous year, similarly reduced GWP and GHGI by 133 to 158% in the improved vs. the traditional combined management. Changes in GWP and GHGI due to improved vs. traditional management varied with the duration of the experiment and inclusion of soil and climatic factors in multiple linear regressions improved their relationships. Improved management practices reduced GWP and GHGI compared with traditional management

  12. The Impact of “Unseasonably” Warm Spring Temperatures on Acute Myocardial Infarction Hospital Admissions in Melbourne, Australia: A City with a Temperate Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Loughnan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme temperatures on human health have been well described. However, the adverse health effects of warm weather that occurs outside the summer period have had little attention. We used daily anomalous AMI morbidity and daily anomalous temperature to determine the impact of “unseasonable” temperature on human health. The “unseasonably” warm weather was attributed to a slow moving high pressure system to the east of Melbourne. No morbidity displacement was noted during either of these periods suggesting that morbidity due to “unseasonable” temperatures is avoidable. An increase in warmer weather during the cooler months of spring may result in increased morbidity, and an alert system based on summer thresholds may not be appropriate for early season heat health warnings. A straightforward alert system based on calculating anomalous temperature from daily weather forecasts may reduce the public health impact of “unseasonably” warm weather.

  13. Do minor sudden stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) impact coupling between stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) like major warmings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Liu, Huixin; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Lee, Jaewook

    2017-08-01

    We have investigated the coupling between the stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 2010 minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Three episodic SSWs were noticed in 2010. Mesospheric zonal winds between 82 and 92 km obtained from King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar showed the significant difference from usual trend. The zonal wind reversal in the mesosphere is noticed a week before the associated SSW similar to 2002 major SSW. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km is simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to 2002 major SSW.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  14. Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Sheffield, Justin; Wiberg, David; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-01-01

    Recent droughts and heatwaves showed the vulnerability of the electricity sector to surface water constraints with reduced potentials for thermoelectric power and hydropower generation in different regions. Here we use a global hydrological-electricity modelling framework to quantify the impacts of

  15. Impact of Organic Amendments on Global Warming Potential of Diversified Tropical Rice Rotation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janz, B.; Weller, S.; Kraus, D.; Wassmann, R.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Ralf, K.

    2017-12-01

    Paddy rice cultivation is increasingly challenged by irrigation water scarcity, which is forcing farmers to change traditional rice cultivation from flooded double-rice systems to the introduction of well-aerated upland crops during dry season. Emissions of methane (CH4) are expected to decrease, while there is a risk of increasing emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and decreasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks through volatilization in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2). We present a unique dataset of long-term continuous greenhouse gas emission measurements (CH4 and N2O) in the Philippines to assess global warming potentials (GWP) of diversified rice crop rotations including different field management practices such as straw residue application and legume intercropping. Since 2012, more than four years of CH4 and N2O emissions in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) during dry season have been collected. Introduction of upland crops reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Although dry season N2O emissions increased twice- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction of CH4 led to a significantly lower annual GWP (CH4 + N2O) as compared to the traditional R-R system. Diversified crop management practices were first implemented during land-preparation for dry season 2015 where i) 6 t/ha rice straw was returned to the field and ii) mungbean was grown as a cover-crop between dry and wet season in addition to rice straw application. The input of organic material (straw and mungbean) led to higher substrate availability for methanogens during the following season. Therefore, GWP was 9-39% higher following straw incorporation than the control treatment. This increase was mainly driven by additional CH4 emissions. Even more, mungbean intercropping further increased GWPs, whereby the increment was highest in R-R rotation (88%) and lowest in R

  16. Gyrokinetic equivalence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra, Felix I; Catto, Peter J

    2009-01-01

    We compare two different derivations of the gyrokinetic equation: the Hamiltonian approach in Dubin D H E et al (1983 Phys. Fluids 26 3524) and the recursive methodology in Parra F I and Catto P J (2008 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 065014). We prove that both approaches yield the same result at least to second order in a Larmor radius over macroscopic length expansion. There are subtle differences in the definitions of some of the functions that need to be taken into account to prove the equivalence.

  17. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    temperature response pattern in AER and GHG is characterized by strong responses over the western U.S. and weak or opposite signed responses over the southeast U.S., raising the question of whether the observed U.S. "warming hole" could have a forced component. To address this question, I systematically examine observed seasonal temperature trends over all time periods of at least 10 years during 1901-2015. In the northeast and southern U.S., significant summertime cooling occurs from the early 1950s to the mid 1970s, which I partially attribute to increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions (median fraction of the observed temperature trends explained is 0.69 and 0.17, respectively). In winter, the northeast and southern U.S. cool significantly from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, which I attribute to long-term phase changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Rather than being a single phenomenon stemming from a single cause, both the warming hole and its dominant drivers vary by season, region, and time period. Finally, I examine historical and projected future changes in atmospheric stagnation. Stagnation, which is characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, is a meteorological contributor to heat waves, extreme pollution, and drought. Using CM3, I show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds produce significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US increases the number of stagnant summer days. Outside of the U.S., significant drying over eastern China in response to rising aerosol emissions contributed to increased stagnation during 1860-2005. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local

  18. Impact of warming on Nostoc colonies (Cyanobacteria) in a wet hummock meadow, Spitsbergen

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Elster, Josef; Kvíderová, Jana; Hájek, Tomáš; Láska, K.; Šimek, Miloslav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 4 (2012), 395-420 ISSN 0138-0338 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 934; GA MŠk LA341 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516; CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : global climate change * Nostoc * OTC Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.745, year: 2012

  19. The FRISBEE tool, a software for optimising the trade-off between food quality, energy use, and global warming impact of cold chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gwanpua, S.G.; Verboven, P.; Leducq, D.; Brown, T.; Verlinden, B.E.; Bekele, E.; Aregawi, W. Evans, J.; Foster, A.; Duret, S.; Hoang, H.M.; Sluis, S. van der; Wissink, E.; Hendriksen, L.J.A.M.; Taoukis, P.; Gogou, E.; Stahl, V.; El Jabri, M.; Le Page, J.F.; Claussen, I.; Indergård, E.; Nicolai, B.M.; Alvarez, G.; Geeraerd, A.H.

    2015-01-01

    Food quality (including safety) along the cold chain, energy use and global warming impact of refrigeration systems are three key aspects in assessing cold chain sustainability. In this paper, we present the framework of a dedicated software, the FRISBEE tool, for optimising quality of refrigerated

  20. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

    2018-05-13

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of

  1. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-05-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a

  2. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for

  3. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-01-01

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority

  4. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  5. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-04-07

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  6. A cascade of warming impacts brings bluefin tuna to Greenland waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian R.; Payne, Mark R.; Boje, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Rising ocean temperatures are causing marine fish species to shift spatial distributions and ranges, and are altering predator-prey dynamics in food webs. Most documented cases of species shifts so far involve relatively small species at lower trophic levels, and consider individual species in ec...... impacts is restructuring the food web in east Greenland waters.......Rising ocean temperatures are causing marine fish species to shift spatial distributions and ranges, and are altering predator-prey dynamics in food webs. Most documented cases of species shifts so far involve relatively small species at lower trophic levels, and consider individual species...

  7. Estimating the impact of +2 degrees of global warming on European Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Konstantopoulos, Konstantinos; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The impact of a potential global temperature rise by 2oC on tourism is examined, within the framework of IMPACT2C FP7 project. The period of the specific increase was defined according to the global mean temperature projections from two GCM, BCM and HadCM3Q3. Simulations from two RCMs, driven by the aforementioned GCMs, in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) which is a measure of climate favorability for outdoor leisure and recreational activities. Climate favorability related to summer tourism is expected to increase in most European countries moving from south to north. In the opposite, countries that traditionally attract "sun and sand" tourists like Italy, Spain, Greece, France, Portugal, Cyprus are projected to become uncomfortably hot for the months of the peak summer season. Both of the examined models provide consistent information about the direction of change, however SMHI shows a greater change in future TCI. The TCI between 1960 and 2000 was associated to bednights data, to reveal the correlation of the empirical index with a real tourism indicator. The resulted correlation function was then applied to the 2oC period, estimating the effect of the specific temperature rise to future tourism activity expressed in terms of projected bednights.

  8. Climate Change Impact on the Southeastern Europe Security Environment and the Increasing Role of the Bulgarian Army as the World Warms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT AND THE INCREASING ROLE OF THE BULGARIAN ARMY AS THE WORLD WARMS...DD-MM-YYYY) 10-06-2016 2. REPORT TYPE Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) AUG 2015 – JUN 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change ...14. ABSTRACT Climate change impacts on the security environment are real and have the potential to create unprecedented levels of risk through

  9. Daylighting and Cooling of Atrium Buildings in Warm Climates: Impact of the Top-Fenestration and Wall Mass Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atif, Morad Rachid

    1992-01-01

    Sun-lighting and daylighting contribute greatly to the aesthetic value of an atrium. However, today's atria are often found either over-lit with extensive cooling loads, or under-lit requiring increased artificial lighting loads. The increase of the top-glazing area increases the cooling loads and decreases the lighting loads. The increase of the mass in the atrium walls decreases the maximum atrium temperature and the cooling loads. Furthermore, the mass distribution and its reflectance affect the lighting levels at the atrium floor. The purpose of this study is to investigate the simultaneous impact of the top-fenestration and the mass and reflectance of atrium walls on the cooling and daylighting performance of atria in warm climates. It attempts to determine the optimum top-fenestration for efficient daylighting and low cooling loads. The daylighting performance was evaluated through illumination measurements in physical models in a sky simulator. The cooling performance was evaluated using the software TRNSYS 13.1. Two types of top-fenestration were tested: horizontal and vertical south-facing, each with three alternate areas. The variations of the atrium walls included materials (standard frame and heavyweight concrete) and percentage and reflectance of the solid area. Two and four-story atria were considered, each with square and linear configuration. The performance was evaluated for three warm climates. The optimum top-fenestration for efficient daylighting was determined. The daylighting prediction algorithm was extended to include the effective reflectance of the atrium walls. The increase of mass in the atrium walls significantly decreased the atrium temperature range, the maximum atrium temperature, and the cooling loads. This impact decreased from horizontal to vertical south-facing top-glazing. The vertical south-facing top-glazing and, to a lesser degree, the reduction of the glazed atrium cover by 50% had more cooling benefits than increasing the

  10. Additive and Synergistic Impacts of Fishing and Warming on the Growth of a Temperate Marine Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrongiello, J.

    2016-02-01

    Fishing and climate change are having profound impacts on the trajectory and variability of marine populations. However, despite the wealth of work undertaken in marine environments on the causes of longer-term biological change, the effects of these two drivers have traditionally been considered in isolation or just additively. Such an approach obviously overlooks the potential for significant synergistic or antagonistic interactions between fishing and climate to occur. Indeed, it is increasingly becoming acknowledged that the direction and magnitude of biological responses to natural environmental variation and climate change can be mediated by other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing, and vice versa. Somatic growth is an ideal candidate with which to explore the impacts of fishing and environmental variability due to its strong biological relevance and its heightened sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic drivers. I developed 19-year growth biochronologies (1980-1999) for three south-east Australian populations of a site-attached temperate reef fish, purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola) using individual-based growth information naturally archived in otoliths. A commercial wrasse fishery began in the early 1990s; before this there was negligible recreational or commercial fishing. The growth of older fish was proportionally higher and that of the youngest fish proportionally lower after the onset of commercial fishing; 2-year olds grew 7.4% slower, but 5-year-olds grew 10.3% and 10-year-olds 26% faster in the latter period. These results are consistent with a density dependent response to harvesting. Average growth rates across all ages increased by 6.6%.oC-1, reflecting either a direct or indirect temperature effect in this global marine 'hotspot'. Finally, the distribution of individual thermal reaction norms significantly changed post fishing, showing that fishing and temperature can have a synergetic impact on marine populations via within

  11. Long-range global warming impact of gaseous diffusion plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trowbridge, L.D.

    1992-09-01

    The DOE gaseous diffusion plant complex makes extensive use of CFC-114 as a primary coolant. As this material is on the Montreal Protocol list of materials scheduled for production curtailment, a substitute must be found. In addition to physical cooling properties, the gaseous diffusion application imposes the unique requirement of chemical inertness to fluorinating agents. This has narrowed the selection of a near-term substitute to two fully fluorinated material, FC-318 and FC-3110, which are likely to be strong, long-lived greenhouse gases. In this document, calculations are presented showing, for a number of plausible scenarios of diffusion plant operation and coolant replacement strategy, the future course of coolant use, greenhouse gas emissions (including coolant and power-related indirect CO 2 emissions), and the consequent global temperature impacts of these scenarios

  12. Contrasting impacts of ocean acidification and warming on the molecular responses of CO2-resilient oysters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncalves, Priscila; Thompson, Emma L; Raftos, David A

    2017-06-02

    This study characterises the molecular processes altered by both elevated CO 2 and increasing temperature in oysters. Differences in resilience of marine organisms against the environmental stressors associated with climate change will have significant implications for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems worldwide. Some evidence suggests that climate change resilience can differ between populations within a species. B2 oysters represent a unique genetic resource because of their capacity to better withstand the impacts of elevated CO 2 at the physiological level, compared to non-selected oysters from the same species (Saccostrea glomerata). Here, we used proteomic and transcriptomic analysis of gill tissue to evaluate whether the differential response of B2 oysters to elevated CO 2 also extends to increased temperature. Substantial and distinctive effects on protein concentrations and gene expression were evident among B2 oysters responding to elevated CO 2 or elevated temperature. The combination of both stressors also altered oyster gill proteomes and gene expression. However, the impacts of elevated CO 2 and temperature were not additive or synergistic, and may be antagonistic. The data suggest that the simultaneous exposure of CO 2 -resilient oysters to near-future projected ocean pH and temperature results in complex changes in molecular processes in order to prevent stress-induced cellular damage. The differential response of B2 oysters to the combined stressors also indicates that the addition of thermal stress may impair the resilience of these oysters to decreased pH. Overall, this study reveals the intracellular mechanisms that might enable marine calcifiers to endure the emergent, adverse seawater conditions resulting from climate change.

  13. Aerobic Exercise as a Warm-up for Singing: Acoustic Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHenry, Monica A; Evans, Joseph

    2017-07-01

    In a previous work, it was found that a 30-minute aerobic workout significantly increased singers' sound pressure level and airflow during voicing, suggesting a shift to flow phonation. This companion study was designed to assess the impact of the same workout on pitch accuracy, vibrato rate, extent and regularity, and the singing power ratio. This study is a cohort experimental study. Twenty-two students in an academic vocal performance program participated. They performed an aerobic workout for 30 minutes. Before and after the workout, they sang the first seven notes of the "Star-Spangled Banner" on /pa/, producing seven /pa/s on the last note. The students then sang an ascending and descending scale to the ninth on "ah." The following measures were obtained from the "Star-Spangled Banner": pitch accuracy calculated on the seventh note ("by"); and vibrato rate, regularity, and extent, calculated on the most sustained sixth note ("see"). For the scale, the following measures were calculated from each note: pitch accuracy; vibrato rate, regularity, and extent; and the singing power ratio. There were no significant differences from pre- to postworkout across any measures. It appears that an aerobic workout positively impacts the respiratory driving force for voice production but does little for phonation. Critical for performance is the fine tuning and balancing across the respiratory, laryngeal, and resonance systems. It appears that this can only be achieved with vocalization exercises, facilitating coordination within and across the physiological systems involved in the complex art of bel canto. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Impacts on river systems under 2 °C warming: Bangladesh Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Zaman

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable due to the combined impacts of sea level rise, rainfall and runoff variability, and changes in cyclone patterns. This paper presents the application of an integrated modelling framework used to investigate climate change impacts when global averaged surface temperature increases by 2 °C from pre-industrial level. The modelling framework consists of four model types: Regional climate model (RCM, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM Basin model, Southwest Region Hydrodynamic and Salinity models. Bias corrected climate results (temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration from SMHI-RCA and CNRM-ARPEGE RCMs for (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5 scenario were used. The uniqueness of this research study was that the same GCM (General Circulation Model/RCM results were used across the whole modelling chain. In Bagerhat District, it was found that river salinity can increase by about 0.5 to 2 PPT (parts per thousand. Also, the duration of river salinity above 1 PPT can double in some locations. In Kushtia District, in the months of November and December river flows may increase but not sufficiently in other months due to lack of connectivity to the Ganges River. In the flood-prone Shariatpur District, average wet season water level increases up to 0.2 to 0.5 m. Also, duration of flood levels above the established danger level can double in some locations. Finally, this study found that dredging of the mouth of the Gorai River (in Kushtia District is an effective adaptation measure. The dredging ensures connectivity to the Ganges River, which allows freshwater to enter the Southwest region of Bangladesh, which not only alleviates drought conditions in Kushtia Distract but also helps push back saline intrusion.

  15. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, José C.; Pais, Isabel P.; Leitão, António E.; Guerra, Mauro; Reboredo, Fernando H.; Máguas, Cristina M.; Carvalho, Maria L.; Scotti-Campos, Paula; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I.; Lidon, Fernando J. C.; DaMatta, Fábio M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate changes, mostly related to high temperature, are predicted to have major negative impacts on coffee crop yield and bean quality. Recent studies revealed that elevated air [CO2] mitigates the impact of heat on leaf physiology. However, the extent of the interaction between elevated air [CO2] and heat on coffee bean quality was never addressed. In this study, the single and combined impacts of enhanced [CO2] and temperature in beans of Coffea arabica cv. Icatu were evaluated. Plants were grown at 380 or 700 μL CO2 L-1 air, and then submitted to a gradual temperature rise from 25°C up to 40°C during ca. 4 months. Fruits were harvested at 25°C, and in the ranges of 30–35 or 36–40°C, and bean physical and chemical attributes with potential implications on quality were then examined. These included: color, phenolic content, soluble solids, chlorogenic, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, caffeine, trigonelline, lipids, and minerals. Most of these parameters were mainly affected by temperature (although without a strong negative impact on bean quality), and only marginally, if at all, by elevated [CO2]. However, the [CO2] vs. temperature interaction strongly attenuated some of the negative impacts promoted by heat (e.g., total chlorogenic acids), thus maintaining the bean characteristics closer to those obtained under adequate temperature conditions (e.g., soluble solids, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, trigonelline, chroma, Hue angle, and color index), and increasing desirable features (acidity). Fatty acid and mineral pools remained quite stable, with only few modifications due to elevated air [CO2] (e.g., phosphorous) and/or heat. In conclusion, exposure to high temperature in the last stages of fruit maturation did not strongly depreciate bean quality, under the conditions of unrestricted water supply and moderate irradiance. Furthermore, the superimposition of elevated air [CO2] contributed to preserve bean quality by modifying and mitigating the heat impact

  16. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Ramalho

    2018-03-01

    the heat impact on physical and chemical traits of coffee beans, which is clearly relevant in a context of predicted climate change and global warming scenarios.

  17. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, José C; Pais, Isabel P; Leitão, António E; Guerra, Mauro; Reboredo, Fernando H; Máguas, Cristina M; Carvalho, Maria L; Scotti-Campos, Paula; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I; Lidon, Fernando J C; DaMatta, Fábio M

    2018-01-01

    the heat impact on physical and chemical traits of coffee beans, which is clearly relevant in a context of predicted climate change and global warming scenarios.

  18. Identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the EU-25 economy using a multi-objective input–output approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortés-Borda, D.; Ruiz-Hernández, A.; Guillén-Gosálbez, G.; Llop, M.; Guimerà, R.; Sales-Pardo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi-criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO 2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policy makers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought. - Highlights: • We minimize climate change by performing small changes in the consumption habits. • We propose a tool that combines multiobjective optimization and macroeconomic models. • Identifying key sectors allows improving the environmental performance significantly with little impact to the economy. • Significant reductions in global warming potential are attained by regulating sectors. • Our tool aids policy makers in the design of effective sustainability policies

  19. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeker, Kristy J; Kordas, Rebecca L; Crim, Ryan; Hendriks, Iris E; Ramajo, Laura; Singh, Gerald S; Duarte, Carlos M; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

    2013-06-01

    Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan M. Khormi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  1. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeker, Kristy J; Kordas, Rebecca L; Crim, Ryan; Hendriks, Iris E; Ramajo, Laura; Singh, Gerald S; Duarte, Carlos M; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature. PMID:23505245

  2. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2016-11-21

    We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  3. The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

    2018-03-01

    This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

  4. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  5. Potential impact of global warming on the range of Spruce, Fir, Beech and sessile Oak in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piedallu, Christian; Perez, Vincent; Gegout, Jean-Claude; Lebourgeois, Francois; Bertrand, Romain

    2009-01-01

    There have been many studies all over the world that forecast the impact of global warming on vegetation but there is little information currently available to assess its consequences on French forests. The authors studied the range of four common species - spruce, fir, beech and sessile oak - so as to determine their ecology as accurately as possible and assess their sensitivity to global warming. Their range over the period from 1961-1990 was modelled and mapped for the whole of France using ecological variables that characterize climate, water supply, and soil nutrition. The models constructed predict effects from temperature, the water resource, water-logging and the trophic level of soils that are consistent with empirical knowledge about these species. Changes in the probabilities of presence during the 21. century investigated by simulating the A2 and B2 scenarios of the HadCM3 climate model. Changes in climate as predicted by this model would lead to a decrease of the probabilities of presence for all four species initially in the first part of the 21. century at the outer limits of their ranges and then a very significant drop in most plains and medium altitude upland areas, even according to the most optimistic forecasts under scenario B2. The reduction in the forest surface areas that are favourable to the species investigated for the period 2070-2100 is estimated, depending on the scenario, to be between 92% and 99% for spruce, 80% and 93% for beech, 63% and 83% for fir and 43% and 83% for sessile oak. These forecasted changes are very significant in comparison with the current conditions that are favourable to the presence of these species for which edaphic variables act as a local filter within the overall climate envelope. The authors conclude by underscoring the value of these tools for identifying and mapping the most vulnerable areas so as to be in a position to track the behaviour of these species in these areas and determine the appropriate

  6. Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

  7. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

  8. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Zappa, Giuseppe; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Fischer, Erich; Harvey, Ben J.; Iversen, Trond; King, Martin P.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mitchell, Daniel; Scinocca, John; Shiogama, Hideo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wettstein, Justin J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

  9. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

    2018-05-01

    A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food

  10. The impact of fixed-dose combination versus free-equivalent combination therapies on adherence for hypertension: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Li-Ping; Cheng, Zhong-Wei; Zhang, Yu-Xuan; Li, Ying; Mei, Dan

    2018-04-27

    Nonadherence to antihypertensive medication is considered as a reason of inadequate control of blood pressure. This meta-analysis aimed to systemically evaluate the impact of fixed-dose combination (FDC) therapy on hypertensive medication adherence compared with free-equivalent combination therapies. Articles were retrieved from MEDLINE and Embase databases using a combination of terms "fixed-dose combinations" and "adherence or compliance or persistence" and "hypertension or antihypertensive" from January 2000 to June 2017 without any language restriction. A meta-analysis was performed to parallel compare the impact of FDC vs free-equivalent combination on medicine adherence or persistence. Studies were independently reviewed by two investigators. Data from eligible studies were extracted and a meta-analysis was performed using R version 3.1.0 software. A total of nine studies scored as six of nine to eight of nine for Newcastle-Ottawa rating with 62 481 patients with hypertension were finally included for analysis. Results showed that the mean difference of medication adherence for FDC vs free-equivalent combination therapies was 14.92% (95% confidence interval, 7.38%-22.46%). Patients in FDC group were more likely to persist with their antihypertensive treatment, with a risk ratio of 1.84 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-3.39). This meta-analysis confirmed that FDC therapy, compared with free-equivalent combinations, was associated with better medication adherence or persistence for patients with hypertension. It can be reasonable for physicians, pharmacists, and policy makers to facilitate the use of FDCs for patients who need to take two or more antihypertensive drugs. ©2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Impact of warm ischemia time on the change of split renal function after minimally invasive partial nephrectomy in Taiwanese patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Keng Li

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: SRF is more sensitive for postoperative follow-up than eGFR. Longer warm ischemia time is associated with poorer postoperative renal function. RPN is a safe and feasible alternative to LPN.

  12. Anticipated Guilt for Not Helping and Anticipated Warm Glow for Helping Are Differently Impacted by Personal Responsibility to Help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlandsson, Arvid; Jungstrand, Amanda Å.; Västfjäll, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    One important motivation for people behaving prosocially is that they want to avoid negative and obtain positive emotions. In the prosocial behavior literature however, the motivations to avoid negative emotions (e.g., guilt) and to approach positive emotions (e.g., warm glow) are rarely separated, and sometimes even aggregated into a single mood-management construct. The aim of this study was to investigate whether anticipated guilt if not helping and anticipated warm glow if helping are influenced similarly or differently when varying situational factors related to personal responsibility to help. Helping scenarios were created and pilot tests established that each helping scenario could be formulated both in a high-responsibility version and in a low-responsibility version. In Study 1 participants read high-responsibility and low-responsibility helping scenarios, and rated either their anticipated guilt if not helping or their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., separate evaluation). Study 2 was similar but here participants rated both their anticipated guilt if not helping and their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., joint evaluation). Anticipated guilt was clearly higher in the high-responsibility versions, but anticipated warm glow was unaffected (in Studies 1a and 1b), or even higher in the low-responsibility versions (Study 2). In Studies 3 (where anticipated guilt and warm glow were evaluated separately) and 4 (where they were evaluated jointly), personal responsibility to help was manipulated within-subjects. Anticipated guilt was again constantly higher in the high-responsibility versions but for many types of responsibility-manipulations, anticipated warm glow was higher in the low-responsibility versions. The results suggest that we anticipate guilt if not fulfilling our responsibility but that we anticipate warm glow primarily when doing over and beyond our responsibility. We argue that future studies investigating motivations for helping

  13. Concurrent and lagged impacts of an anomalously warm year on autotrophic and heterotrophic components of soil respiration: a deconvolution analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi; Gao, Chao; Verburg, Paul S J; Arnone, John A; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Schimel, David S

    2010-07-01

    *Partitioning soil respiration into autotrophic (R(A)) and heterotrophic (R(H)) components is critical for understanding their differential responses to climate warming. *Here, we used a deconvolution analysis to partition soil respiration in a pulse warming experiment. We first conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine which parameters can be identified by soil respiration data. A Markov chain Monte Carlo technique was then used to optimize those identifiable parameters in a terrestrial ecosystem model. Finally, the optimized parameters were employed to quantify R(A) and R(H) in a forward analysis. *Our results displayed that more than one-half of parameters were constrained by daily soil respiration data. The optimized model simulation showed that warming stimulated R(H) and had little effect on R(A) in the first 2 months, but decreased both R(H) and R(A) during the remainder of the treatment and post-treatment years. Clipping of above-ground biomass stimulated the warming effect on R(H) but not on R(A). Overall, warming decreased R(A) and R(H) significantly, by 28.9% and 24.9%, respectively, during the treatment year and by 27.3% and 33.3%, respectively, during the post-treatment year, largely as a result of decreased canopy greenness and biomass. *Lagged effects of climate anomalies on soil respiration and its components are important in assessing terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks to climate warming.

  14. Do single-use medical devices containing biopolymers reduce the environmental impacts of surgical procedures compared with their plastic equivalents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Scott R; Hottle, Troy A; Hobbs, Shakira R; Thiel, Cassandra L; Campion, Nicole; Bilec, Melissa M; Landis, Amy E

    2017-01-01

    Background While petroleum-based plastics are extensively used in health care, recent developments in biopolymer manufacturing have created new opportunities for increased integration of biopolymers into medical products, devices and services. This study compared the environmental impacts of single-use disposable devices with increased biopolymer content versus typically manufactured devices in hysterectomy. Methods A comparative life cycle assessment of single-use disposable medical products containing plastic(s) versus the same single-use medical devices with biopolymers substituted for plastic(s) at Magee-Women's Hospital (Magee) in Pittsburgh, PA and the products used in four types of hysterectomies that contained plastics potentially suitable for biopolymer substitution. Magee is a 360-bed teaching hospital, which performs approximately 1400 hysterectomies annually. Results There are life cycle environmental impact tradeoffs when substituting biopolymers for petroplastics in procedures such as hysterectomies. The substitution of biopolymers for petroleum-based plastics increased smog-related impacts by approximately 900% for laparoscopic and robotic hysterectomies, and increased ozone depletion-related impacts by approximately 125% for laparoscopic and robotic hysterectomies. Conversely, biopolymers reduced life cycle human health impacts, acidification and cumulative energy demand for the four hysterectomy procedures. The integration of biopolymers into medical products is correlated with reductions in carcinogenic impacts, non-carcinogenic impacts and respiratory effects. However, the significant agricultural inputs associated with manufacturing biopolymers exacerbate environmental impacts of products and devices made using biopolymers. Conclusions The integration of biopolymers into medical products is correlated with reductions in carcinogenic impacts, non-carcinogenic impacts and respiratory effects; however, the significant agricultural inputs associated

  15. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  16. Contrasting rainfall declines in northern and southern Tanzania: Potential differential impacts of west Pacific warming and east Pacific cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Pedreros, D. H.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    Here, we present analysis of a new 1900-2014 rainfall record for the Greater Horn of Africa with high station density (CenTrends), and evaluate potential climate change "hot spots" in Tanzania. We identify recent (1981-2014) downward trends in Tanzanian rainfall, use CenTrends to place these in a longer historical context, and relate rainfall in these regions to decadal changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). To identify areas of concern, we consider the potential food security impacts of the recent rainfall declines and also rapid population growth. Looking forward, we consider what the links to SSTs might mean for rainfall in the next several decades based on SST projections. In addition to CenTrends, we use a variety of geographic data sets, including 1981-2014 rainfall from the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSv2.0), simulated crop stress from the USGS Geospatial Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (GeoWRSI) model, NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs (ERSST v4), SST projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and land cover and population maps from SERVIR, WorldPOP, and CIESIN's Gridded Population of the World. The long-term CenTrends record allows us to suggest an interesting dichotomy in decadal rainfall forcing. During the March to June season, SSTs in the west Pacific appear to be driving post-1980 rainfall reductions in northern Tanzania. In the 2000s, northern Tanzania's densely populated Pangani River, Internal Drainage, and Lake Victoria basins experienced the driest period in more than a century. During summer, negative trends in southern Tanzania appear linked to a negative SST trend in the Nino3.4 region. Since the SST trend in the west (east) Pacific appears strongly influenced by global warming (natural decadal variability), we suggest that water resources in northern Tanzania may face increasing challenges, but that this will be less the case in southern Tanzania.

  17. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  18. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, J.; Pollard, D.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Deconto, R. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Raymo, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3Ma), characterized by globally elevated temperatures (2-3º C) and carbon dioxide levels of ~400ppm, is commonly used as a testing ground for investigating ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. The central, unanswered question in this regard is the extent of East Antarctic melting during the MPWP. Here we assess the potential role of dynamic topography on this issue. Model reconstructions of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the ice age require an estimate of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models account for changes in bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), often using simplified models of the GIA process, but they generally do not consider other processes that may perturb subglacial topography. One such notable process is dynamic topography, i.e. the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow and buoyancy variations within the mantle and lithosphere. Paleo-shorelines of Pliocene age reflect the influence of dynamic topography, but the impact of these bedrock elevation changes on ice sheet stability in the Antarctic region is unknown. In this study we use viscous flow simulations of mantle dynamics to predict changes in dynamic topography and reconstruct bedrock elevations below the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the MPWP. We furthermore couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model in order to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates that uplift occurred in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains and the adjacent Wilkes Basin. This predicted uplift, which is consistent with geological inferences of uplift in the Transantarctic Mountains, implies a significantly (~100-200 m) lower elevation of the Wilkes Basin in the Pliocene. This lower elevation leads to ~400 km of additional retreat of the grounding line in this region relative to simulations

  19. Impacts of 1.5°C warming on high mountain systems: state of knowledge, challenges and the way forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Allen, Simon; Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Linsbauer, Andreas; Paul, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Recently, both in science and policy, discussions have intensified about whether the 2°C 'guardrail' can really be considered a safety margin, i.e. natural and human systems would be reasonably safe when global warming can be limited to below 2°C with reference to preindustrial levels. Concerns about the 'safety' of the 2°C warming mounted especially with reference to highly vulnerable systems such as small islands, polar regions and high mountains where 2°C may imply crossing thresholds with major irreversible impacts. Several countries and organizations therefore called for a 1.5°C target, and it was one of the remarkable aspects of the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015 that 1.5°C was explicitly included in the Paris Agreement. However, scientifically, little is known about the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C warming in terms of impacts on natural and human systems. This was also corroborated by the final report of the UNFCCC Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) which was based on the outcomes of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and subsequent expert discussions. Here we respond to this gap and challenge of understanding the differences of impacts as related to 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial levels. We concentrate on high mountains and impacts related to changes in the cryosphere because these systems are very sensitive to climatic changes (in particular to the key climate variables temperature and precipitation) and acknowledged as highly vulnerable areas. We start with a systematic literature review and find that the mountain research community has addressed this issue only in a marginal way. We then develop a conceptual but evidence-based model how this challenge could be addressed: We suggest to first study the changes and corresponding impacts seen in high mountain systems since the Little Ice Age focusing on specified periods with 0.5°C global warming (corresponding regional warming, for instance in the Swiss Alps, in these periods was

  20. Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ama Browne Klutse, Nana; Ajayi, Vincent O.; Olabode Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Egbebiyi, Temitope S.; Kouadio, Kouakou; Nkrumah, Francis; Akumenyi Quagraine, Kwesi; Olusegun, Christiana; Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971‑2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.

  1. The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-03-23

    The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  2. Anticipated Guilt for not Helping and Anticipated Warm Glow for Helping are Differently Impacted by Personal Responsibility to Help

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvid Erlandsson

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available One important motivation for people behaving prosocially is that they want to avoid negative and obtain positive emotions. In the prosocial behavior literature however, the motivations to avoid negative emotions (e.g. guilt and to approach positive emotions (e.g. warm glow are rarely separated, and sometimes even aggregated into a single mood-management construct. The aim of this study was to investigate whether anticipated guilt if not helping and anticipated warm glow if helping are influenced similarly or differently when varying situational factors related to personal responsibility to help. Helping scenarios were created and pilot tests established that each helping scenario could be formulated both in a high-responsibility version and in a low-responsibility version. In Study 1 participants read high-responsibility and low-responsibility helping scenarios, and rated either their anticipated guilt if not helping or their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e. separate evaluation. Study 2 was similar but here participants rated both their anticipated guilt if not helping and their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e. joint evaluation. Anticipated guilt was clearly higher in the high-responsibility versions, but anticipated warm glow was unaffected (in Studies 1a and 1b, or even higher in the low-responsibility versions (Study 2. In Studies 3 (where anticipated guilt and warm glow were evaluated separately and 4 (where they were evaluated jointly, personal responsibility to help was manipulated within-subjects. Anticipated guilt was again constantly higher in the high-responsibility versions but for many types of responsibility-manipulations, anticipated warm glow was higher in the low-responsibility versions. The results suggest that we anticipate guilt if not fulfilling our responsibility but that we anticipate warm glow primarily when doing over and beyond our responsibility. We argue that future studies investigating motivations for

  3. Impact of non-migrating tides on the low latitude ionosphere during a sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, S. E.; Sassi, F.; Tate, J.; McCormack, J.; Kuhl, D. D.; Drob, D. P.; Metzler, C.; Mannucci, A. J.

    2018-06-01

    The lower atmosphere contributes significantly to the day-to-day variability of the ionosphere, especially during solar minimum conditions. Ionosphere/atmosphere model simulations that incorporate meteorology from data assimilation analysis products can be critically important for elucidating the physical processes that have substantial impact on ionospheric weather. In this study, the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM-X) is coupled with an ionospheric model (Sami3 is Another Model of the Ionosphere) to study day-to-day variability in the ionosphere during January 2010. Lower atmospheric weather patterns are introduced into the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X simulations using the 6-h Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) data assimilation products. The same time period is simulated using the new atmospheric forecast model, the High Altitude Navy Global Environmental Model (HA-NAVGEM), a hybrid 4D-Var prototype data assimilation with the ability to produce meteorological fields at a 3-h cadence. Our study shows that forcing SD-WACCM-X with HA-NAVGEM better resolves the semidiurnal tides and introduces more day-to-day variability into the ionosphere than forcing with NOGAPS-ALPHA. The SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation also more accurately captures the longitudinal variability associated with non-migrating tides in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region as compared to total electron content (TEC) maps derived from GPS data. Both the TEC maps and the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation show an enhancement in TEC over South America during 17-21 January 2010, which coincides with the commencement of a stratospheric warming event on 19 January 2010. Analysis of the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulations indicates non-migrating tides (including DW4, DE2 and SW5) played a role during 17-21 January in shifting the phase of the wave-3 pattern in

  4. Impacts of second-generation biofuel feedstock production in the central U.S. on the hydrologic cycle and global warming mitigation potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, K. J.; Twine, T. E.; VanLoocke, A.; Bagley, J. E.; Hill, J.

    2016-10-01

    Biofuel feedstocks provide a renewable energy source that can reduce fossil fuel emissions; however, if produced on a large scale they can also impact local to regional water and carbon budgets. Simulation results for 2005-2014 from a regional weather model adapted to simulate the growth of two perennial grass biofuel feedstocks suggest that replacing at least half the current annual cropland with these grasses would increase water use efficiency and drive greater rainfall downwind of perturbed grid cells, but increased evapotranspiration (ET) might switch the Mississippi River basin from having a net warm-season surplus of water (precipitation minus ET) to a net deficit. While this scenario reduces land required for biofuel feedstock production relative to current use for maize grain ethanol production, it only offsets approximately one decade of projected anthropogenic warming and increased water vapor results in greater atmospheric heat content.

  5. Onium-onium scattering at fixed impact parameter: exact equivalence between the color dipole model and the BFKL pomeron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navelet, H.

    1998-01-01

    We compute the onium-onium scattering amplitude at fixed impact parameter in the framework of the perturbative QCD dipole model. Relying on the conformal properties of the dipole cascade and of the elementary dipole-dipole scattering amplitude, we obtain an exact result for this onium-onium scattering amplitude, which is proved to be identical to the BFKL result, and which exhibits the frame invariance of the calculation. The asymptotic expression for this amplitude and for the dipole distribution in an onium at fixed impact parameter agree with previous numerical simulations. We show how it is possible to describe onium-e ± deep inelastic scattering in the dipole model, relying on k T -factorization properties. The elementary scattering amplitudes involved in the various processes are computed using eikonal techniques. (orig.)

  6. National US public policy on global warming derived from optimization of energy use and environmental impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will discuss possible United States policy responses to global warming. The components of a voluntary program for emissions control will be presented as well as regulatory options, including a carbon tax and tradeable permits. The advantages and disadvantages of both options will be discussed as well as the need for a consistent overall policy response to climate change

  7. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  8. National US public policy on global warming derived from optimization of energy use and environmental impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reck, R.

    1993-12-31

    This paper will discuss possible United States policy responses to global warming. The components of a voluntary program for emissions control will be presented as well as regulatory options, including a carbon tax and tradeable permits. The advantages and disadvantages of both options will be discussed as well as the need for a consistent overall policy response to climate change.

  9. Design and Build of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway considering the Impacts of Warming Climate and Permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, W.; Jin, H.; Cheng, G.; Wu, Q.; Lai, Y.

    2005-12-01

    During the period from 1960 to 2000, an 1°C increase of air temperature has been observed along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR) traversing 632 km of warm and ice-rich permafrost through the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Correspondingly, mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs) of warm (>-1 °C) permafrost on average increased about 0.3 to 0.5°C during 1970s-1990, while that of colder permafrost had increased by 0.1 to 0.3°C. During 1996-2004, ground temperatures at the permafrost table were increasing at the rates of 0.01-0.08°C a-1, and the permafrost table was lowering at the rates of 2.6 to 6.6 cm a-1; and the ground temperatures at depths of 6 to 8 m were warming at the rates of 0.02 to 0.05°C a-1. Consequently, the strengths of permafrost as the foundation of the QTR would be weakened if proper engineering measures were not taken. Based on the experiences and lessons learned from the road construction in permafrost regions from Alaska, Canada and Russia, and northeastern China, and taking into consideration of possible climatic warming along the QTR during the next 100 years, the design and construction of the QTR adopted the principle of``cooling the roadbed'' because most of the permafrost along the route is too deep to be thawed, too thermally sensitive to climatic warming and too critical to have appreciable thaw settlements. About 550 km of QTR is in continuous permafrost zone, 82 km is in discontinuous permafrost zone; 275 km is in warm permafrost areas, and 110 km of permafrost is ice-rich. The QTR is designed for safe operations during the next 100 years during which a warming of 2.2 to 2.6°C by 2050 is projected. Without engineering measures to keep ground frozen or maintain the settlement within the acceptable limits, thaw settlement in the foundation soils, and induced environmental instability would threaten the integrity and safety of QTR operation. However, only increasing therma resistance, such as increasing fill thickness or

  10. An Iterative Method to Derive the Equivalent Centrifugal Compressor Performance at Various Operating Conditions: Part I: Modelling of Suction Parameters Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waleed Albusaidi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new iterative method to predict the equivalent centrifugal compressor performance at various operating conditions. The presented theoretical analysis and empirical correlations provide a novel approach to derive the entire compressor map corresponding to various suction conditions without a prior knowledge of the detailed geometry. The efficiency model was derived to reflect the impact of physical gas properties, Mach number, and flow and work coefficients. One of the main features of the developed technique is the fact that it considers the variation in the gas properties and stage efficiency which makes it appropriate with hydrocarbons. This method has been tested to predict the performance of two multistage centrifugal compressors and the estimated characteristics are compared with the measured data. The carried comparison revealed a good matching with the actual values, including the stable operation region limits. Furthermore, an optimization study was conducted to investigate the influences of suction conditions on the stage efficiency and surge margin. Moreover, a new sort of presentation has been generated to obtain the equivalent performance characteristics for a constant discharge pressure operation at variable suction pressure and temperature working conditions. A further validation is included in part two of this study in order to evaluate the prediction capability of the derived model at various gas compositions.

  11. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  12. Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

    2014-02-15

    Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, Pocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

  13. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and cloud dynamics on warm cloud effective radii and liquid water path from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

    OpenAIRE

    D. Painemal; P. Minnis; S. Sun-Mack

    2013-01-01

    The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E), and cloud fraction (CF) on MODIS cloud effective radius (re), retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1) and 3.8 μm (re3.8) channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES Edition 4 algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (~ 20 km), while heterogeneities (Hσ) are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean...

  14. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and liquid water path on warm cloud effective radii from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

    OpenAIRE

    Painemal, D.; Minnis, P.; Sun-Mack, S.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E), and cloud fraction (CF) on MODIS cloud effective radius (re), retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1) and 3.8 μm (re3.8) channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (∼20 km), while heterogeneities (Hσ) are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean 0.64 μm reflectance. ...

  15. Analysis simulation of tectonic earthquake impact to the lifetime of radioactive waste container and equivalent dose rate predication in Yucca Mountain geologic repository, Nevada test site, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, I.S.; Imardjoko, Y.U.; Karnawati, Dwikorita

    2003-01-01

    US policy not to recycle her spent nuclear fuels brings consequence to provide a nuclear waste repository site Yucca Mountain in Nevada, USA, considered the proper one. High-level radioactive waste to be placed into containers and then will be buried in three hundred meter underground tunnels. Tectonic earthquake is the main factor causing container's damage. Goldsim version 6.04.007 simulates mechanism of container's damage due to a great devastating impact load, the collapse of the tunnels. Radionuclide inventories included are U-234, C-14, Tc-99, I-129, Se-79, Pa-231, Np-237, Pu-242, and Pu-239. Simulation carried out in 100,000 years time span. The research goals are: 1). Estimating tunnels stan-up time, and 2). Predicting the equivalent dose rate contributed by the included radionuclides to the human due to radioactive polluted drinking water intake. (author)

  16. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  17. Politico-economic equivalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez Eiras, Martin; Niepelt, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Traditional "economic equivalence'' results, like the Ricardian equivalence proposition, define equivalence classes over exogenous policies. We derive "politico-economic equivalence" conditions that apply in environments where policy is endogenous and chosen sequentially. A policy regime and a st......Traditional "economic equivalence'' results, like the Ricardian equivalence proposition, define equivalence classes over exogenous policies. We derive "politico-economic equivalence" conditions that apply in environments where policy is endogenous and chosen sequentially. A policy regime...... their use in the context of several applications, relating to social security reform, tax-smoothing policies and measures to correct externalities....

  18. Comparing the urbanization and global warming impacts on extreme rainfall characteristics in Southern China Pearl River Delta megacity based on dynamical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, K. Y.; Tam, C. Y.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that urban land use can significantly influence the local temperature, precipitation and meteorology through altering land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture and heat in urban areas. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase ( 5-10%) on the intensity of extreme rainfall over Southeast China; it is projected to increase further according to the latest IPCC reports. In this study, we assess how urbanization and global warming together might impact on heavy precipitation characteristics over the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, located in southern China. This is done by dynamically downscaling GFDL-ESM2M simulations for the present and future (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). Over the PRD area, the WRF model is integrated at a resolution of 2km x 2km. To focus on extreme events, episodes covering daily rainfall intensity above the 99th percentile in Southeast China in the GFDL-ESM2M daily precipitation datasets were first identified. These extreme episodes were then dynamically downscaled in two parallel experiments with the following model designs: one with anthropogenic heat flux (AH) = 0 Wm-2 and the other with peak AH = 300 Wm-2 in the AH diurnal cycle over the urban domain. Results show that, with AH in urban area, the urban 2m-temperature can rise by about 2oC. This in turn leads to an increase of the mean as well as the extreme rain rates by 10-15% in urban domain. The latter is comparable to the impact of global warming alone, according to downscaling experiments for the RCP8.5 scenario. Implications of our results on urban effects on extreme rainfall under a warming background climate will be discussed.

  19. Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

    2012-06-01

    Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

  20. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  1. Committed dose equivalent per intake of unit activity of radionuclides, for four age-groups, concerning the members of the public for the environmental impact evaluation's of radioactive releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breuer, F.; Brofferio, C.; Sacripanti, A.

    1983-01-01

    In the present work, with the aim of estimating more realistically the committed dose equivalent for the members of the public in the environmental impact evaluation's of nuclear plants, the authors supply a methodology for calculating the committed dose equivalents for inhalation and ingestion, and the values for fiftheen organs and sixi-three radionuclides, concerning four specific age-groups on the ground of data published by Icrp n.30 part 1, 2, 3

  2. Impact of global warming at the range margins: phenotypic plasticity and behavioral thermoregulation will buffer an endemic amphibian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel; Gonzalez-Mendez, Avia; Estay, Sergio A; Gaitán-Espitia, Juan D; Barria-Oyarzo, Ismael; Bartheld, José L; Bacigalupe, Leonardo D

    2014-01-01

    When dispersal is not an option to evade warming temperatures, compensation through behavior, plasticity, or evolutionary adaptation is essential to prevent extinction. In this work, we evaluated whether there is physiological plasticity in the thermal performance curve (TPC) of maximum jumping speed in individuals acclimated to current and projected temperatures and whether there is an opportunity for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert landscape where inhabits the northernmost population of the endemic frog Pleurodema thaul. Our results indicate that individuals acclimated to 20°C and 25°C increased the breath of their TPCs by shifting their upper limits with respect to when they were acclimated at 10°C. In addition, even when dispersal is not possible for this population, the landscape is heterogeneous enough to offer opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. In particular, under current climatic conditions, behavioral thermoregulation is not compulsory as available operative temperatures are encompassed within the population TPC limits. However, for severe projected temperatures under climate change, behavioral thermoregulation will be required in the sunny patches. In overall, our results suggest that this population of Pleurodema thaul will be able to endure the worst projected scenario of climate warming as it has not only the physiological capacities but also the environmental opportunities to regulate its body temperature behaviorally. PMID:25512843

  3. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on precipitation and temperature in Florida during North Atlantic cold spells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donders, Timme H. [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Boer, Hugo Jan de; Dekker, Stefan C. [Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, Utrecht (Netherlands); Finsinger, Walter; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Grimm, Eric C. [Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL (United States); Reichart, Gert Jan [Utrecht University, Geochemistry, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-01-15

    Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate changes and consistently found that mean summer precipitation (P{sub JJA}) increased (0.5-0.9 mm/day) and mean November temperature increased (2.0-3.0 C) during pine phases coeval with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. Marine sea surface temperature records indicate that potential sources for these moisture and heat anomalies are in the Gulf of Mexico and the western tropical Atlantic. We explain this low latitude warming by an increased Loop Current facilitated by persistence of the Atlantic Warm Pool during summer. This hypothesis is supported by a climate model sensitivity analysis. A positive heat anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic best approximates the pollen-inferred climate reconstructions from Lake Tulane during the (stadials around) Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. (orig.)

  4. Impact of recombinant globular adiponectin on early warm ischemia-reperfusion injury in rat bile duct after liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2014-09-19

    Adiponectin (APN) is an adipocyte protein with anti-diabetic properties, which has been recently revealed to have anti-inflammatory activity in organ ischemia- reperfusion injury (IRI). However, little is known about its function in bile duct IRI after liver transplantation. Therefore, we investigated whether APN affects early warm IRI in rat bile duct using a liver autologous transplantation model. In our study, rats were randomly divided into three experimental groups: a sham group, a IRI group, and a APN group. The serum enzyme levels and BDISS scores of bile duct histology associated with bile duct injury, decreased after administration of APN. Subsequently, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor(TNF-α),.interleukin-6(IL-6) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) decreased. Furthermore, pretreatment with APN suppressed the activation of nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) (p65), a transcription factor involved in inflammatory reactions, compared to other two groups. Administration of APN also downregulated the expression of Fas protein and attenuated caspase-3 activity to decrease bile duct apoptosis. Our results illustrate that APN protects the rat bile duct against early warm IRI by suppressing the inflammatory response and hepatocyte apoptosis, and NF-κB (p65) plays an important role in this process.

  5. Impact of warming climate and cultivar change on maize phenology in the last three decades in North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Qi, Yongqing; Shen, Yanjun; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Liu, Jianfeng; Wang, Rede; Zhang, He; Liu, Fengshan

    2016-05-01

    As climate change could significantly influence crop phenology and subsequent crop yield, adaptation is a critical mitigation process of the vulnerability of crop growth and production to climate change. Thus, to ensure crop production and food security, there is the need for research on the natural (shifts in crop growth periods) and artificial (shifts in crop cultivars) modes of crop adaptation to climate change. In this study, field observations in 18 stations in North China Plain (NCP) are used in combination with Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Maize model to analyze the trends in summer maize phenology in relation to climate change and cultivar shift in 1981-2008. Apparent warming in most of the investigated stations causes early flowering and maturity and consequently shortens reproductive growth stage. However, APSIM-Maize model run for four representative stations suggests that cultivar shift delays maturity and thereby prolongs reproductive growth (flowering to maturity) stage by 2.4-3.7 day per decade (d 10a-1). The study suggests a gradual adaptation of maize production process to ongoing climate change in NCP via shifts in high thermal cultivars and phenological processes. It is concluded that cultivation of maize cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production and food security in the NCP study area and beyond.

  6. Warming and organic matter sources impact the proportion of dissolved to total activities in marine extracellular enzymatic rates

    KAUST Repository

    Baltar, Federico

    2017-04-19

    Extracellular enzymatic activities (EEAs) are the rate-limiting step in the degradation of organic matter. Extracellular enzymes can be found associated to cells or dissolved in the surrounding water. The proportion of cell-free EEA constitutes in many marine environments more than half of the total activity. This high proportion causes an uncoupling between hydrolysis rates and the actual bacterial activity. However, we do not know what factors control the proportion of dissolved relative to total EEA, nor how this may change in the future ocean. To resolve this, we performed laboratory experiments with water from the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) to study the effects of temperature and dissolved organic matter sources on EEA and the proportion of dissolved EEA. We found that warming increases the rates of organic matter hydrolysis and reduces the proportion of dissolved relative to total EEA. This suggests a potential increase of the coupling between organic matter hydrolysis and heterotrophic activities with increasing ocean temperatures, although strongly dependent on the organic matter substrates available. Our study suggests that local differences in the organic matter composition in tropical coastal ecosystems will strongly affect the proportion of dissolved EEA in response to ocean warming.

  7. Keeping warm? Self-reported housing and home energy efficiency factors impacting on older people heating homes in North Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burholt, Vanessa; Windle, Gill

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines a representative sample (N=421) of older people (aged 70+) living in rural North Wales with regard to relationships between fuel poverty, feeling cold in one's home and a range of self-reported housing and home energy efficiency items. In the Welsh context, the combination of poor housing stock and low-level income is likely to increase the chance of older people experiencing fuel poverty, therefore the analyses are relevant to both energy and social policy. The paper hypothesises that: (i) People in 'fuel poor' homes are: low-income households; living in older houses; lacking home energy efficiency measures; (ii) not all people facing difficulties heating their home (i.e. wearing extra clothing to keep warm during cold spells) are identified as 'fuel poor', but there will be an association between taking extra measures to keep warm and low income; older houses and lacking home energy efficiency factors. The results partially support the hypotheses. An estimation is made of the expenditure required to counter the factors associated with fuel poverty and cold homes in the region. The paper concludes with implications for the UK Fuel Poverty Strategy

  8. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  9. Review of medical discharge summaries and medical documentation in a metropolitan hospital: impact on diagnostic-related groups and Weighted Inlier Equivalent Separation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, N; Perera, P; Roberts, A; Nagappan, R

    2013-07-01

    Accurate and comprehensive clinical documentation is crucial for effective ongoing patient care, follow up and to optimise case mix-based funding. Each Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) is assigned a 'weight', leading to Weighted Inlier Equivalent Separation (WIES), a system many public and private hospitals in Australia subscribe to. To identify the top DRG in a general medical inpatient service, the completeness of medical discharge documentation, commonly missed comorbidities and system-related issues and subsequent impact on DRG and WIES allocation. One hundred and fifty completed discharge summaries were randomly selected from the top 10 medical DRG in our health service. From a detailed review of the clinical documentation, principal diagnoses, associated comorbidities and complications, where appropriate, the DRG and WIES were modified. Seventy-two (48%) of the 150 reviewed admissions resulted in a revision of DRG and WIES equivalent to an increase of AUD 142,000. Respiratory-based DRG generated the largest revision of DRG and WIES, while 'Cellulitis' DRG had the largest relative change. Twenty-seven per cent of summaries reviewed necessitated a change in coding with no subsequent change in DRG allocation or WIES. Acute renal failure, anaemia and electrolyte disturbances were the most commonly underrepresented entities in clinical discharge documentation. Seven patients had their WIES downgraded. Comprehensive documentation of principal diagnosis/diagnoses, comorbidities and their complications is imperative to optimal DRG and WIES allocation. Regular meetings between clinical and coding staff improve the quality and timeliness of medical documentation, ensure adequate communication with general practitioners and lead to appropriate funding. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  10. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

    2010-05-01

    The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

  11. The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part II - An updated understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weatherdon, Lauren; Sumaila, Rashid; Cheung, William W.L.; Rogers, Alex; Magnan, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Between 1971 and 2010, the oceans have absorbed approximately 93% of the excess heat caused by global warming, leading to several major changes such as the increase in stratification, limitation in the circulation of nutrients from deep waters to the surface, and sea level rise. In addition, the oceans absorbed 26% of anthropogenic CO 2 emitted since the start of the Industrial Revolution, which resulted in ocean acidification. Together, these processes strongly affect marine and coastal species' geographic distribution, abundance, migration patterns and phenology. As a consequence of these complex environmental changes, marine and coastal human sectors (i.e., fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism and health) are in turn at risk. This report provides an updated synthesis of what the science tells us about such a risk, based upon IPCC AR5 (2013- 2014) and published scientific articles and grey literature that have been published between July 2013 and April 2015. Although uncertainty remains strong, there is growing scientific evidence that ocean warming and acidification will affect key resources for societies through ecosystems services. For example, while AR5 indicated that coral reefs had little scope for adaptation, recent research has suggested that there may be some capacity for some coral species to recover from climatic hocks and bleaching events, and to acquire heat resistance through acclimatization. This will have huge implications on many coastal economies in the developing and developed countries. More generally, key sectors will be affected. For example, while the fish catch potential is expected to decrease at the global scale, it will show diversified trends at the regional scale as fish stocks have started shifting in latitudes or by depth. This will impact regional to local fisheries systems. Also, climate and acidification-related impacts to existing aquaculture are expected to be generally negative, with impacts varying by location

  12. The Impact of a Warming Micro‐Climate on Muooni  Farmers of Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cush Ngonzo Luwesi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfed agriculture has become highly vulnerable to the depleting water resources in most arid and semi‐arid tropics (ASATs under the effect of climate change. The impact has certainly been very high in Muooni catchment where more than 99% of the natural forest has been cleared. The warming micro‐climate is accelerated by extended deforestation, unsustainable irrigation, and water over‐abstraction in the catchment by eucalyptus and other exotic trees. The dwindling crop yields add to the farmer’s suffering. Farming communities have created various innovative ways of coping with a warming environment to increase their agriculture resiliency. These include, among others, rain water management, reforestation and agro‐forestry. To what extent have these practices been disturbed by the increasing temperatures, and decreasing rainfalls and river discharges in Muooni catchment? This study used statistical forecast techniques to unveil the past, current and future variations of the micro‐climate in Muooni catchment, and relevant factors determining farmers’ vulnerability to drought. Muooni catchment is warming by 0.8 to 1.2 °C in a century as a result of a changing micro‐climate. These changes are mainly driven by deforestation due to the high urbanization rate and agricultural practices in Muooni catchment. Centennial rainfall is subsequently plummeting at 30 to 50 mm while discharges are decreasing from 0.01 to 0.05 m3∙s−1, with unmet water demands of 30% to 95% and above. In view of the current trends of the population growth and urbanization in Muooni, agricultural expansion is seriously threatened if no appropriate policy, extension service and science based emergency measures are put in place by the Government of Kenya.

  13. Impacts of Recent Warming and the 2015/2016 El Niño on Tropical Peruvian Ice Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Davis, M. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Beaudon, E.; Porter, S. E.; Kutuzov, S.; Lin, P.-N.; Mikhalenko, V. N.; Mountain, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Data collected between 1974 and 2016 from snow pits and core samples from two Peruvian ice fields demonstrate the effect of the recent warming over the tropical Andes, augmented by El Niño, on the preservation of the climate record. As the 0°C isotherm is approaching the summit of the Quelccaya ice cap in the Andes of southern Peru (5,670 meters above sea level (masl)), the distinctive seasonal δ18O oscillations in the fresh snow deposited within each thermal year are attenuated at depth due to melting and percolation through the firn. This has become increasingly pronounced over 43 years. In the Andes of northern Peru, the ice field on the col of Nevado Huascarán (6050 masl) has retained its seasonal δ18O variations at depth due to its higher elevation. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, snow on Quelccaya and Huascarán was isotopically (δ18O) enriched and the net sum of accumulation over the previous year (NSA) was below the mean for non-El Niño years, particularly on Quelccaya (up to 64% below the mean) which was more pronounced than the NSA decrease during the comparable 1982/1983 El Niño. Interannual large-scale oceanic and middle to upper-level atmospheric temperatures influence δ18O in precipitation on both ice fields, although the influences are variably affected by strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, especially on Quelccaya. The rate of ice wastage along Quelccaya's margin was dramatically higher during 2015/2016 compared with that of the previous 15 years, suggesting that warming from future El Niños may accelerate mass loss on Peruvian glaciers.

  14. The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Karl D; Ries, Justin B; Bruno, John F; Westfield, Isaac T

    2014-12-22

    Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.

  15. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  16. The Enforcement of Criminal Law in the Utilization and Management of Forest Area Having Impact Toward Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifrani Ifrani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The rampant corruption is in the utilization and its influence on global warming. It is expected in the future, in addition to the availability of maps of forest area easily accessible with some clear regional boundaries, there are also institutional and human resource capacity strengthening in the areas permitting the process to prevent corruption in the management of forest areas in Indonesia resulted in the destruction of natural resources, especially forests. Various activities in that sector become a critical point of the occurrence of corruption cases. In addition to the inadequacy of the forest area maps, unclear set of area boundaries, and the violations of licensing criteria, the cases of illegal logging become the factors that cause damages to the forest land in Indonesia. The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between corruption in the permitting conversion of forest land field of the ministry. The method used in this study was descriptive analytical research describing and analyzing the available facts in accordance with the issue that became the object of the research study.

  17. Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte; Schaeffer, Michiel; Knutti, Reto

    2015-01-01

    Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO 2 emissions, or staying within a CO 2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO 2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO 2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO 2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO 2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH 4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO 2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO 2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO 2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO 2 budget by targeting non-CO 2 diminishes strongly along with CO 2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors. (letter)

  18. Fate of Chloromethanes in the Atmospheric Environment: Implications for Human Health, Ozone Formation and Depletion, and Global Warming Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Wen-Tien

    2017-09-21

    Among the halogenated hydrocarbons, chloromethanes (i.e., methyl chloride, CH₃Cl; methylene chloride, CH₂Cl₂; chloroform, CHCl₃; and carbon tetrachloride, CCl₄) play a vital role due to their extensive uses as solvents and chemical intermediates. This article aims to review their main chemical/physical properties and commercial/industrial uses, as well as the environment and health hazards posed by them and their toxic decomposition products. The environmental properties (including atmospheric lifetime, radiative efficiency, ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, photochemical ozone creation potential, and surface mixing ratio) of these chlorinated methanes are also reviewed. In addition, this paper further discusses their atmospheric fates and human health implications because they are apt to reside in the lower atmosphere when released into the environment. According to the atmospheric degradation mechanism, their toxic degradation products in the troposphere include hydrogen chloride (HCl), carbon monoxide (CO), chlorine (Cl₂), formyl chloride (HCOCl), carbonyl chloride (COCl₂), and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂). Among them, COCl₂ (also called phosgene) is a powerful irritating gas, which is easily hydrolyzed or thermally decomposed to form hydrogen chloride.

  19. Fate of Chloromethanes in the Atmospheric Environment: Implications for Human Health, Ozone Formation and Depletion, and Global Warming Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Wen-Tien

    2017-01-01

    Among the halogenated hydrocarbons, chloromethanes (i.e., methyl chloride, CH3Cl; methylene chloride, CH2Cl2; chloroform, CHCl3; and carbon tetrachloride, CCl4) play a vital role due to their extensive uses as solvents and chemical intermediates. This article aims to review their main chemical/physical properties and commercial/industrial uses, as well as the environment and health hazards posed by them and their toxic decomposition products. The environmental properties (including atmospheric lifetime, radiative efficiency, ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, photochemical ozone creation potential, and surface mixing ratio) of these chlorinated methanes are also reviewed. In addition, this paper further discusses their atmospheric fates and human health implications because they are apt to reside in the lower atmosphere when released into the environment. According to the atmospheric degradation mechanism, their toxic degradation products in the troposphere include hydrogen chloride (HCl), carbon monoxide (CO), chlorine (Cl2), formyl chloride (HCOCl), carbonyl chloride (COCl2), and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). Among them, COCl2 (also called phosgene) is a powerful irritating gas, which is easily hydrolyzed or thermally decomposed to form hydrogen chloride. PMID:29051455

  20. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  1. Equivalence principles and electromagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W.-T.

    1977-01-01

    The implications of the weak equivalence principles are investigated in detail for electromagnetic systems in a general framework. In particular, it is shown that the universality of free-fall trajectories (Galileo weak equivalence principle) does not imply the validity of the Einstein equivalence principle. However, the Galileo principle plus the universality of free-fall rotation states does imply the Einstein principle.

  2. Ocean acidification and warming in the Norwegian and Barents Seas: impacts on marine ecosystems and human uses

    OpenAIRE

    Koenigstein, Stefan; Gößling-Reisemann, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    This report synthesizes the results about the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and ecosystem services in Norway, from interviews and a workshop with stakeholders in 2013.

  3. The Impact of Global Warming and Anoxia on Marine Benthic Community Dynamics: an Example from the Toarcian (Early Jurassic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danise, Silvia; Twitchett, Richard J.; Little, Crispin T. S.; Clémence, Marie-Emilie

    2013-01-01

    The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic) fossil record is an archive of natural data of benthic community response to global warming and marine long-term hypoxia and anoxia. In the early Toarcian mean temperatures increased by the same order of magnitude as that predicted for the near future; laminated, organic-rich, black shales were deposited in many shallow water epicontinental basins; and a biotic crisis occurred in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. High-resolution quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Cleveland Basin (North Yorkshire, UK), and analysed with multivariate statistical methods to detect how the fauna responded to environmental changes during the early Toarcian. Twelve biofacies were identified. Their changes through time closely resemble the pattern of faunal degradation and recovery observed in modern habitats affected by anoxia. All four successional stages of community structure recorded in modern studies are recognised in the fossil data (i.e. Stage III: climax; II: transitional; I: pioneer; 0: highly disturbed). Two main faunal turnover events occurred: (i) at the onset of anoxia, with the extinction of most benthic species and the survival of a few adapted to thrive in low-oxygen conditions (Stages I to 0) and (ii) in the recovery, when newly evolved species colonized the re-oxygenated soft sediments and the path of recovery did not retrace of pattern of ecological degradation (Stages I to II). The ordination of samples coupled with sedimentological and palaeotemperature proxy data indicate that the onset of anoxia and the extinction horizon coincide with both a rise in temperature and sea level. Our study of how faunal associations co-vary with long and short term sea level and temperature changes has implications for predicting the long-term effects of “dead zones” in modern oceans. PMID:23457537

  4. The Impact of the Acquisition of Electronic Medical Texts on the Usage of Equivalent Print Books in an Academic Medical Library

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela S. Morgan

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives – This study examines whether acquiring a text in electronic format effects the usage of the print version of the text, focusing specifically on medical texts. Studies in the literature dealt specifically with general collections and it was not clear if they were applicable to medical collections. It was also not clear if these studies should play a role in determining whether a medical library should purchase electronic texts or whether reserve collections are still needed for print texts.Methods – Four usage studies were conducted using data from the circulation system and the electronic vendor systems. These were 1 trends of print usage; 2 trends of electronic usage; 3 a comparison of electronic usage with print usage of the same title in the reserve collection; 4 a comparison of electronic usage with print usage of the same title in the general collection.Results – In comparison to print, substantial usage is being made of electronic books. Print is maintaining a level pattern of usage while electronic usage is increasing steadily. There was a noticeable difference in the usage levels of the electronic texts as regards to the package in which they are contained. Usage of print texts both on reserve and in the general collection has decreased over time, however the acquisition of the electronic version of a medical title had little impact on the usage of the equivalent print version. Conclusion – There is a demand for medical texts in medical libraries. Electronic versions can replace print versions of texts in reserve. Further investigation is needed of current patterns of print collection usage, with particular emphasis on trends in reserve collection usage.

  5. Surface reflectance and conversion efficiency dependence of technologies for mitigating global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, Ian [Solartran Pty Ltd., 12 Lentara St, Kenmore, Brisbane 4069 (Australia); Smith, Geoff [Physics and Advanced Materials, University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, New South Wales 2007 (Australia)

    2011-05-15

    A means of assessing the relative impact of different renewable energy technologies on global warming has been developed. All power plants emit thermal energy to the atmosphere. Fossil fuel power plants also emit CO{sub 2} which accumulates in the atmosphere and provides an indirect increase in global warming via the greenhouse effect. A fossil fuel power plant may operate for some time before the global warming due to its CO{sub 2} emission exceeds the warming due to its direct heat emission. When a renewable energy power plant is deployed instead of a fossil fuel power plant there may be a significant time delay before the direct global warming effect is less than the combined direct and indirect global warming effect from an equivalent output coal fired plant - the ''business as usual'' case. Simple expressions are derived to calculate global temperature change as a function of ground reflectance and conversion efficiency for various types of fossil fuelled and renewable energy power plants. These expressions are used to assess the global warming mitigation potential of some proposed Australian renewable energy projects. The application of the expressions is extended to evaluate the deployment in Australia of current and new geo-engineering and carbon sequestration solutions to mitigate global warming. Principal findings are that warming mitigation depends strongly on the solar to electric conversion efficiency of renewable technologies, geo-engineering projects may offer more economic mitigation than renewable energy projects and the mitigation potential of reforestation projects depends strongly on the location of the projects. (author)

  6. Predicting renal recovery after liver transplant with severe pretransplant subacute kidney injury: The impact of warm ischemia time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskey, Heather L; Schomaker, Nathan; Hung, Kenneth W; Asrani, Sumeet K; Jennings, Linda; Nydam, Trevor L; Gralla, Jane; Wiseman, Alex; Rosen, Hugo R; Biggins, Scott W

    2016-08-01

    Identifying which liver transplantation (LT) candidates with severe kidney injury will have a full recovery of renal function after liver transplantation alone (LTA) is difficult. Avoiding unnecessary simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation (SLKT) can optimize the use of scarce kidney grafts. Incorrect predictions of spontaneous renal recovery after LTA can lead to increased morbidity and mortality. We retrospectively analyzed all LTA patients at our institution from February 2002 to February 2013 (n = 583) and identified a cohort with severe subacute renal injury (n = 40; creatinine <2 mg/dL in the 14-89 days prior to LTA and not on renal replacement therapy [RRT] yet, ≥2 mg/dL within 14 days of LTA and/or on RRT). Of 40 LTA recipients, 26 (65%) had renal recovery and 14 (35%) did not. The median (interquartile range) warm ischemia time (WIT) in recipients with and without renal recovery after LTA was 31 minutes (24-46 minutes) and 39 minutes (34-49 minutes; P = 0.02), respectively. Adjusting for the severity of the subacute kidney injury with either Acute Kidney Injury Network or Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, and End-Stage Kidney Disease criteria, increasing WIT was associated with lack of renal recovery (serum creatinine <2 mg/dL after LTA, not on RRT), with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.08 (1.01-1.16; P = 0.03) and 1.09 (1.01-1.17; P = 0.02), respectively. For each minute of increased WIT, there was an 8%-9% increase in the risk of lack of renal recovery after LTA. In a separate cohort of 98 LTA recipients with subacute kidney injury, we confirmed the association of WIT and lack of renal recovery (OR, 1.04; P = 0.04). In LT candidates with severe subacute renal injury, operative measures to minimize WIT may improve renal recovery potentially avoiding RRT and the need for subsequent kidney transplant. Liver Transplantation 22 1085-1091 2016 AASLD. © 2016 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  7. Impact of warming, moderate nitrogen addition and bark herbivory on BVOC emissions and growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiiva, Päivi; Häikiö, Elina; Kasurinen, Anne

    2018-04-10

    The changing climate will expose boreal forests to rising temperatures, increasing soil nitrogen (N) levels and an increasing risk of herbivory. The single and interaction effects of warming (+2 °C increase), moderate N addition (30 kg ha-1 year-1) and bark herbivory by large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L.) on growth and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from shoots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings were studied in growth chambers over 175 days. In addition, warming and N addition effects on shoot net photosynthesis (Pn) were measured. Nitrogen addition increased both shoot and root dry weights, whereas warming, in combination with herbivory, reduced stem height growth. Warming together with N addition increased current-year shoot Pn, whereas N effects on previous-year shoot Pn were variable over time. Warming decreased non-oxygenated monoterpene (MT) emissions in June and increased them in July. Of individual MT compounds, α-pinene, δ-3-carene, γ-terpinene and terpinolene were among the most frequently responsive compounds in warming treatments in the May-July period. Sesquiterpene emissions were observed only from warming treatments in July. Moderate N addition increased oxygenated monoterpenes in May, and MTs in June and September. However, N addition effect on MTs in June was clearer without warming than with warming. Bark herbivory tended to increase MT emissions in combination with warming and N addition 3 weeks after the damage caused by weevils. Of individual compounds in other BVOC blends, herbivory increased the emissions of methyl-benzene, benzene and hexanal in July. Hence, though both warming and N addition have a potential to change BVOC emissions from Scots pines, the N effect may also be partly cancelled by warming. Furthermore, herbivory pressure in combination with climate warming and N addition may, at least periodically, increase BVOC release to the atmosphere from young Scots pine seedlings.

  8. Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

    2012-01-01

    Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID

  9. Modeling impacts of alternative practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from rice-wheat annual rotation in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyang Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Measured data of methane (CH(4 and nitrous oxide (N(2O were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC model to a winter wheat - single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year impacts on net global warming potential (GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: The simulated cumulative CH(4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N(2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH(4 and N(2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1 high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH(4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH(4 emissions, (2 high inorganic N fertilizer increased N(2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N(2O emissions, (3 the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha(-1 yr(-1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4 the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified

  10. Reevaluation of the global warming impacts of algae-derived biofuels to account for possible contributions of nitrous oxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Sarah K; Grotz, Lara S; Connelly, Elizabeth B; Colosi, Lisa M

    2016-10-01

    The environmental impacts of algae biofuels have been evaluated by life-cycle assessment (LCA); however, these analyses have overlooked nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. A literature analysis was performed to estimate algal N2O emissions and assess the impacts of growth conditions on flux magnitudes. Nitrogen source and dissolved oxygen concentration were identified as possible key contributors; therefore, their individual and combined impacts were evaluated using bench-scale experiments. It was observed that maximum N2O emissions (77.5μg/galgae/day) occur under anoxic conditions with nitrite. Conversely, minimum emissions (6.25μg/galgae/day) occur under oxic conditions with nitrate. Aggregated N2O flux estimates were then incorporated into a LCA framework for algae biodiesel. Accounting for "low" N2O emissions mediated no significant increase (<1%) compared to existing GWP estimates; however, "high" N2O emissions mediate an increase of roughly 25%, potentially jeopardizing the anticipated economic and environmental performances of algae biofuels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Impact of Equivalence Ratio on the Macrostructure of Premixed Swirling CH 4 /Air and CH 4 /O 2 /CO 2 Flames

    KAUST Repository

    Watanabe, Hirotatsu

    2015-06-15

    Premixed CH4/O2/CO2 flames (oxy-flames) and CH4/air flames (air-flames) were experimentally studied in a swirl-stabilized combustor. For comparing oxy and air flames, the same equivalence ratio and adiabatic flame temperature were used. CO2 dilution was adjusted to attain the same adiabatic temperature for the oxy-flame and the corresponding air-flame while keeping the equivalence ratio and Reynolds number (=20,000) the same. For high equivalence ratios, we observed flames stabilized along the inner and outer shear layers of the swirling flow and sudden expansion, respectively, in both flames. However, one notable difference between the two flames appears as the equivalence ratio reaches 0.60. At this point, the outer shear layer flame disappears in the air-flame while it persists in the oxy-flame, despite the lower burning velocity of the oxy-flame. Prior PIV measurements (Ref. 9) showed that the strains along the outer shear layer are higher than along the inner shear layer. Therefore, the extinction strain rates in both flames were calculated using a counter-flow premixed twin flame configuration. Calculations at the equivalence ratio of 0.60 show that the extinction strain rate is higher in the oxy than in the air flame, which help explain why it persists on the outer shear layer with higher strain rate. It is likely that extinction strain rates contribute to the oxy-flame stabilization when air flame extinguish in the outer shear layer. However, the trend reverses at higher equivalence ratio, and the cross point of the extinction strain rate appears at equivalence ratio of 0.64.

  12. Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation Aquecimento Global na Amazônia: impactos e Mitigação

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Martin Fearnside

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998. Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005. We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of

  13. Possible impact of global warming and ocean acidification on underwater sound in northern oceans: another perfect storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, David

    2011-04-01

    The greatest ocean pH change, which will result in lower low frequency sound attenuation, is predicted for higher latitudes. Here shallow sound channel axies exist, allowing the impact on sound to be seen sooner and also more extensively since the principal propagation paths will be near the surface. However, at the same time, higher wind speeds and greater ice breakup,as well as increased ship traffic, could result in higher noise levels. Marine mammals in this environment may have, on one hand, improving communication conditions but also the possibility of increased background noise.

  14. High resolution microscopy reveals significant impacts of ocean acidification and warming on larval shell development in Laternula elliptica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bylenga, Christine H; Cummings, Vonda J; Ryan, Ken G

    2017-01-01

    Environmental stressors impact marine larval growth rates, quality and sizes. Larvae of the Antarctic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, were raised to the D-larvae stage under temperature and pH conditions representing ambient and end of century projections (-1.6°C to +0.4°C and pH 7.98 to 7.65). Previous observations using light microscopy suggested pH had no influence on larval abnormalities in this species. Detailed analysis of the shell using SEM showed that reduced pH is in fact a major stressor during development for this species, producing D-larvae with abnormal shapes, deformed shell edges and irregular hinges, cracked shell surfaces and even uncalcified larvae. Additionally, reduced pH increased pitting and cracking on shell surfaces. Thus, apparently normal larvae may be compromised at the ultrastructural level and these larvae would be in poor condition at settlement, reducing juvenile recruitment and overall survival. Elevated temperatures increased prodissoconch II sizes. However, the overall impacts on larval shell quality and integrity with concurrent ocean acidification would likely overshadow any beneficial results from warmer temperatures, limiting populations of this prevalent Antarctic species.

  15. High resolution microscopy reveals significant impacts of ocean acidification and warming on larval shell development in Laternula elliptica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine H Bylenga

    Full Text Available Environmental stressors impact marine larval growth rates, quality and sizes. Larvae of the Antarctic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, were raised to the D-larvae stage under temperature and pH conditions representing ambient and end of century projections (-1.6°C to +0.4°C and pH 7.98 to 7.65. Previous observations using light microscopy suggested pH had no influence on larval abnormalities in this species. Detailed analysis of the shell using SEM showed that reduced pH is in fact a major stressor during development for this species, producing D-larvae with abnormal shapes, deformed shell edges and irregular hinges, cracked shell surfaces and even uncalcified larvae. Additionally, reduced pH increased pitting and cracking on shell surfaces. Thus, apparently normal larvae may be compromised at the ultrastructural level and these larvae would be in poor condition at settlement, reducing juvenile recruitment and overall survival. Elevated temperatures increased prodissoconch II sizes. However, the overall impacts on larval shell quality and integrity with concurrent ocean acidification would likely overshadow any beneficial results from warmer temperatures, limiting populations of this prevalent Antarctic species.

  16. The Psoriatic Arthritis Impact of Disease 12-item questionnaire: equivalence, reliability, validity, and feasibility of the touch-screen administration versus the paper-and-pencil version

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaffi, Fausto; Di Carlo, Marco; Carotti, Marina; Farah, Sonia; Gutierrez, Marwin

    2016-01-01

    Background Over the last few years, there has been a shift toward a more patient-centered perspective of the disease by adopting patient-reported outcomes. Touch-screen formats are increasingly being used for data collection in routine care and research. Objectives The aim of this study is to examine the equivalence, reliability, validity and respondent preference for a computerized touch-screen version of the Psoriatic Arthritis Impact of Disease 12-item (PsAID-12) questionnaire in comparison with the original paper-and-pencil version, in a cohort of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Methods One hundred and fifty-nine patients with PsA completed both the touch screen- and the conventional paper-and-pencil administered PsAID-12 questionnaire. Agreement between formats was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients. Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient was used to test convergent validity of the touch screen format of PsAID-12, while receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to test discriminant validity. In order to assess the patient’s preference, the participants filled in an additional questionnaire. The time taken to complete both formats was measured. Results A high concordance between the responses to the two modes of the PsAID-12 tested was found, with no significant mean differences. Intraclass correlation coefficients between data obtained for touch-screen and paper versions ranged from 0.801 to 0.962. There was a very high degree of correlation between the touch-screen format of PsAID-12 and composite disease activity indices (all at a P level touch-screen format of PsAID-12, assessed using the minimal disease activity – Outcome Measurements in Rheumatology Clinical Trials criteria, was very good, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.937 and a resulting cutoff value of 2.5. The touch-screen questionnaire was readily accepted and preferred. The mean time spent for completing the

  17. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  18. Effective dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huyskens, C.J.; Passchier, W.F.

    1988-01-01

    The effective dose equivalent is a quantity which is used in the daily practice of radiation protection as well as in the radiation hygienic rules as measure for the health risks. In this contribution it is worked out upon which assumptions this quantity is based and in which cases the effective dose equivalent can be used more or less well. (H.W.)

  19. Characterization of revenue equivalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heydenreich, B.; Müller, R.; Uetz, Marc Jochen; Vohra, R.

    2009-01-01

    The property of an allocation rule to be implementable in dominant strategies by a unique payment scheme is called revenue equivalence. We give a characterization of revenue equivalence based on a graph theoretic interpretation of the incentive compatibility constraints. The characterization holds

  20. Characterization of Revenue Equivalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heydenreich, Birgit; Müller, Rudolf; Uetz, Marc Jochen; Vohra, Rakesh

    2008-01-01

    The property of an allocation rule to be implementable in dominant strategies by a unique payment scheme is called \\emph{revenue equivalence}. In this paper we give a characterization of revenue equivalence based on a graph theoretic interpretation of the incentive compatibility constraints. The

  1. On the operator equivalents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grenet, G.; Kibler, M.

    1978-06-01

    A closed polynomial formula for the qth component of the diagonal operator equivalent of order k is derived in terms of angular momentum operators. The interest in various fields of molecular and solid state physics of using such a formula in connection with symmetry adapted operator equivalents is outlined

  2. Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonalez, Jorge E.; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Smith, T.

    2010-01-01

    The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface

  3. Relationship between wine composition and temperature: Impact on Bordeaux wine typicity in the context of global warming-Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drappier, Julie; Thibon, Cécile; Rabot, Amélie; Geny-Denis, Laurence

    2017-10-24

    Weather conditions throughout the year have a greater influence than other factors (such as soil and cultivars) on grapevine development and berry composition. Temperature affects gene expression and enzymatic activity of primary and secondary metabolism which determine grape ripening and wine characteristics. In the context of the climate change, temperatures will probably rise between 0.3°C and 1.7°C over the next 20 years. They are already rising and the physiology of grapevines is already changing. These modifications exert a profound shift in primary (sugar and organic acid balance) and secondary (phenolic and aromatic compounds) berry metabolisms and the resulting composition of wine. For example, some Bordeaux wines have a tendency toward reduced freshness and a modification of their ruby color. In this context it is necessary to understand the impact of higher temperatures on grape development, harvest procedures, and wine composition in order to preserve the typicity of the wines and to adapt winemaking processes.

  4. Impacts of Near-Future Ocean Acidification and Warming on the Shell Mechanical and Geochemical Properties of Gastropods from Intertidal to Subtidal Zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Jonathan Y S; Connell, Sean D; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Russell, Bayden D

    2017-11-07

    Many marine organisms produce calcareous shells as the key structure for defense, but the functionality of shells may be compromised by ocean acidification and warming. Nevertheless, calcifying organisms may adaptively modify their shell properties in response to these impacts. Here, we examined how reduced pH and elevated temperature affect shell mechanical and geochemical properties of common grazing gastropods from intertidal to subtidal zones. Given the greater environmental fluctuations in the intertidal zone, we hypothesized that intertidal gastropods would exhibit more plastic responses in shell properties than subtidal gastropods. Overall, three out of five subtidal gastropods produced softer shells at elevated temperature, while intertidal gastropods maintained their shell hardness at both elevated pCO 2 (i.e., reduced pH) and temperature. Regardless of pH and temperature, degree of crystallization was maintained (except one subtidal gastropod) and carbonate polymorph remained unchanged in all tested species. One intertidal gastropod produced less soluble shells (e.g., higher calcite/aragonite) in response to reduced pH. In contrast, subtidal gastropods produced only aragonite which has higher solubility than calcite. Overall, subtidal gastropods are expected to be more susceptible than intertidal gastropods to shell dissolution and physical damage under future seawater conditions. The increased vulnerability to shell dissolution and predation could have serious repercussions for their survival and ecological contributions in the future subtidal environment.

  5. Isolating the Meteorological Impact of 21st Century GHG Warming on the Removal and Atmospheric Loading of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter Pollution at Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2018-03-01

    Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses health threats to human population. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5%-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause of the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Our results suggest climate change impact needs to be accounted for to define the future emission standards necessary to meet air quality standard.

  6. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and cloud dynamics on warm cloud effective radii and liquid water path from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painemal, D.; Minnis, P.; Sun-Mack, S.

    2013-05-01

    The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E), and cloud fraction (CF) on MODIS cloud effective radius (re), retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1) and 3.8 μm (re3.8) channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES Edition 4 algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (~ 20 km), while heterogeneities (Hσ) are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean 0.64 μm reflectance. The value of re2.1 strongly depends on CF, with magnitudes up to 5 μm larger than those for overcast scenes, whereas re3.8 remains insensitive to CF. For cloudy scenes, both re2.1 and re3.8 increase with Hσ for any given AMSR-E LWP, but re2.1 changes more than for re3.8. Additionally, re3.8 - re2.1 differences are positive ( 50 g m-2, and negative (up to -4 μm) for larger Hσ. Thus, re3.8 - re2.1 differences are more likely to reflect biases associated with cloud heterogeneities rather than information about the cloud vertical structure. The consequences for MODIS LWP are also discussed.

  7. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and liquid water path on warm cloud effective radii from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painemal, D.; Minnis, P.; Sun-Mack, S.

    2013-10-01

    The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E), and cloud fraction (CF) on MODIS cloud effective radius (re), retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1) and 3.8 μm (re3.8) channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (∼20 km), while heterogeneities (Hσ) are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean 0.64 μm reflectance. The value of re2.1 strongly depends on CF, with magnitudes up to 5 μm larger than those for overcast scenes, whereas re3.8 remains insensitive to CF. For cloudy scenes, both re2.1 and re3.8 increase with Hσ for any given AMSR-E LWP, but re2.1 changes more than for re3.8. Additionally, re3.8-re2.1 differences are positive ( 45 gm-2, and negative (up to -4 μm) for larger Hσ. While re3.8-re2.1 differences in homogeneous scenes are qualitatively consistent with in situ microphysical observations over the region of study, negative differences - particularly evinced in mean regional maps - are more likely to reflect the dominant bias associated with cloud heterogeneities rather than information about the cloud vertical structure. The consequences for MODIS LWP are also discussed.

  8. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  9. THE IMPACT OF TRANSLATION TECHNIQUES AND SUBTITLING RULES TO THE EQUIVALENCE OF MEANING OF CULINARY TERMS IN THE FRESH WITH ANNA OLSON SEASON 1 SUBTITLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hetty Hartati Novita

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of cable TV in Indonesia has made this author interested in focusing on the topic of culinary terms translation in the subtitle of Fresh with Anna Olson Season 1 program broadcasted on Asian Food Channel station. In this paper, this author analyzes the translation techniques suggested by Molina and Albir used by the translators to create the more accurate, natural, and communicative subtitle even though there are subtitling rules to follow. The result is, most of the translated terms have equivalence in meaning between the ST and the TT, while the ones which are not equivalent are due to the application of two particular techniques, Discursive Creation and Adaptation.

  10. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  11. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Chen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6, +4.1 (+9.4 and +0.2 % (−1.7 %, respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than

  12. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Prihartato, Perdana; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-01-01

    marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over

  13. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and liquid water path on warm cloud effective radii from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Painemal

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E, and cloud fraction (CF on MODIS cloud effective radius (re, retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1 and 3.8 μm (re3.8 channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (∼20 km, while heterogeneities (Hσ are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean 0.64 μm reflectance. The value of re2.1 strongly depends on CF, with magnitudes up to 5 μm larger than those for overcast scenes, whereas re3.8 remains insensitive to CF. For cloudy scenes, both re2.1 and re3.8 increase with Hσ for any given AMSR-E LWP, but re2.1 changes more than for re3.8. Additionally, re3.8–re2.1 differences are positive (Hσ 45 gm−2, and negative (up to −4 μm for larger Hσ. While re3.8–re2.1 differences in homogeneous scenes are qualitatively consistent with in situ microphysical observations over the region of study, negative differences – particularly evinced in mean regional maps – are more likely to reflect the dominant bias associated with cloud heterogeneities rather than information about the cloud vertical structure. The consequences for MODIS LWP are also discussed.

  14. Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warming of 2009 on the Equatorial and Low-Latitude Ionosphere of the Indian Longitudes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Sneha; Pant, Tarun K.; Choudhary, R. K.; Vineeth, C.; Sunda, Surendra; Kumar, K. K.; Shreedevi, P. R.; Mukherjee, S.

    2017-10-01

    Using the equatorial electrojet (EEJ)-induced surface magnetic field and total electron content (TEC) measurements, we investigated the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) of January 2009 on the equatorial electrodynamics and low-latitude ionosphere over the Indian longitudes. Results indicate that the intensity of EEJ and the TEC over low latitudes (extending up to 30°N) exhibit significant perturbations during and after the SSW peak. One of the interesting features is the deviation of EEJ and TEC from the normal quiet time behavior well before the onset of the SSW. This is found to coincide with the beginning of enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity over high latitudes. The substantial amplification of the semidiurnal perturbation after the SSW peak is seen to be coinciding with the onset of new and full moons. The response of TEC to SSW is found to be latitude dependent as the near-equatorial (NE) stations show the semidiurnal perturbation only after the SSW peak. Another notable feature is the presence of reduced ionization in the night sector over the NE and low-latitude regions, appearing as an "ionization hole," well after the SSW peak. The investigation revealed the existence of a quasi 16 day wave in the TEC over low latitudes similar to the one present in the EEJ strength. These results have been discussed in the light of changes in the dynamical background because of enhanced PW activity during SSW, which creates favorable conditions for the amplification of lunar tides, and their subsequent interaction with the lower thermospheric tidal fields.

  15. Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

    2013-01-01

    Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

  16. Impact of drilling activities in warm sea: recolonization capacities of seabed; Impact des activites de forage en mer chaude: capacites de recolonisation des fonds marins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalmazzone, Ch.; Blanchet, D. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Lamoureaux, S.; Dutrieux, E.; Durieu, J. [CreOcean, 34 - Montpellier (France); Camps, R. [Total, 64 - Pau (France); Galgani, F. [Ifremer, 34 - Sete (France)

    2004-07-01

    Due to large constraints in environmental regulations, discharge of drill cuttings at sea has to be controlled. It is therefore necessary to get basic information in order to select environment friendly drilling fluids. The present study was intended to assess the impact of cuttings, the capacity of regeneration of the ecosystem and the processes of recolonization of sea-beds. In a first phase, standardized (OSPAR) and experimental toxicity tests, aerobic and anaerobic degradation measurements and lixiviation tests were performed on various types of muds and cuttings (containing diesel oil, two different paraffinic oils, and glycol) in laboratory conditions. In a second phase, the most suitable measurements were taken within the framework of an in situ experiment at a discharge site in Congo (Africa). Cuttings discharge began in November 1993 and ended in April 1999. Together with this survey, a complete analysis of benthos was per formed eight years after the beginning of cuttings discharge. The preliminary results demonstrated: - the zone of extension of the toxicity inducing benthos modifications was less than a few hundred meters around the discharge site; - original fauna was replaced by a more specific fauna. In the more general context of the environmental constraints in the oil industry, our work demonstrated the containment of the impacted zones, the absence of significant risks of modification of the adjacent ecosystems and the possible application to other discharge sites. (authors)

  17. Establishing Substantial Equivalence: Transcriptomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudo, María Marcela; Powers, Stephen J.; Mitchell, Rowan A. C.; Shewry, Peter R.

    Regulatory authorities in Western Europe require transgenic crops to be substantially equivalent to conventionally bred forms if they are to be approved for commercial production. One way to establish substantial equivalence is to compare the transcript profiles of developing grain and other tissues of transgenic and conventionally bred lines, in order to identify any unintended effects of the transformation process. We present detailed protocols for transcriptomic comparisons of developing wheat grain and leaf material, and illustrate their use by reference to our own studies of lines transformed to express additional gluten protein genes controlled by their own endosperm-specific promoters. The results show that the transgenes present in these lines (which included those encoding marker genes) did not have any significant unpredicted effects on the expression of endogenous genes and that the transgenic plants were therefore substantially equivalent to the corresponding parental lines.

  18. A Monte Carlo study of the impact of the choice of rectum volume definition on estimates of equivalent uniform doses and the volume parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvinnsland, Yngve; Muren, Ludvig Paul; Dahl, Olav

    2004-01-01

    Calculations of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) values for the rectum are difficult because it is a hollow, non-rigid, organ. Finding the true cumulative dose distribution for a number of treatment fractions requires a CT scan before each treatment fraction. This is labour intensive, and several surrogate distributions have therefore been suggested, such as dose wall histograms, dose surface histograms and histograms for the solid rectum, with and without margins. In this study, a Monte Carlo method is used to investigate the relationships between the cumulative dose distributions based on all treatment fractions and the above-mentioned histograms that are based on one CT scan only, in terms of equivalent uniform dose. Furthermore, the effect of a specific choice of histogram on estimates of the volume parameter of the probit NTCP model was investigated. It was found that the solid rectum and the rectum wall histograms (without margins) gave equivalent uniform doses with an expected value close to the values calculated from the cumulative dose distributions in the rectum wall. With the number of patients available in this study the standard deviations of the estimates of the volume parameter were large, and it was not possible to decide which volume gave the best estimates of the volume parameter, but there were distinct differences in the mean values of the values obtained

  19. Equivalence in Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, Max; Walker, Iain; Logue, Jennifer

    2011-08-01

    We ventilate buildings to provide acceptable indoor air quality (IAQ). Ventilation standards (such as American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Enginners [ASHRAE] Standard 62) specify minimum ventilation rates without taking into account the impact of those rates on IAQ. Innovative ventilation management is often a desirable element of reducing energy consumption or improving IAQ or comfort. Variable ventilation is one innovative strategy. To use variable ventilation in a way that meets standards, it is necessary to have a method for determining equivalence in terms of either ventilation or indoor air quality. This study develops methods to calculate either equivalent ventilation or equivalent IAQ. We demonstrate that equivalent ventilation can be used as the basis for dynamic ventilation control, reducing peak load and infiltration of outdoor contaminants. We also show that equivalent IAQ could allow some contaminants to exceed current standards if other contaminants are more stringently controlled.

  20. The principle of equivalence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unnikrishnan, C.S.

    1994-01-01

    Principle of equivalence was the fundamental guiding principle in the formulation of the general theory of relativity. What are its key elements? What are the empirical observations which establish it? What is its relevance to some new experiments? These questions are discussed in this article. (author). 11 refs., 5 figs

  1. Radioactive waste equivalence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlowski, S.; Schaller, K.H.

    1990-01-01

    The report reviews, for the Member States of the European Community, possible situations in which an equivalence concept for radioactive waste may be used, analyses the various factors involved, and suggests guidelines for the implementation of such a concept. Only safety and technical aspects are covered. Other aspects such as commercial ones are excluded. Situations where the need for an equivalence concept has been identified are processes where impurities are added as a consequence of the treatment and conditioning process, the substitution of wastes from similar waste streams due to the treatment process, and exchange of waste belonging to different waste categories. The analysis of factors involved and possible ways for equivalence evaluation, taking into account in particular the chemical, physical and radiological characteristics of the waste package, and the potential risks of the waste form, shows that no simple all-encompassing equivalence formula may be derived. Consequently, a step-by-step approach is suggested, which avoids complex evaluations in the case of simple exchanges

  2. Equivalent Colorings with "Maple"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, David R.; Wang, Rongdong

    2005-01-01

    Many counting problems can be modeled as "colorings" and solved by considering symmetries and Polya's cycle index polynomial. This paper presents a "Maple 7" program link http://users.tamuk.edu/kfdrc00/ that, given Polya's cycle index polynomial, determines all possible associated colorings and their partitioning into equivalence classes. These…

  3. Correspondences. Equivalence relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouligand, G.M.

    1978-03-01

    We comment on sections paragraph 3 'Correspondences' and paragraph 6 'Equivalence Relations' in chapter II of 'Elements de mathematique' by N. Bourbaki in order to simplify their comprehension. Paragraph 3 exposes the ideas of a graph, correspondence and map or of function, and their composition laws. We draw attention to the following points: 1) Adopting the convention of writting from left to right, the composition law for two correspondences (A,F,B), (U,G,V) of graphs F, G is written in full generality (A,F,B)o(U,G,V) = (A,FoG,V). It is not therefore assumed that the co-domain B of the first correspondence is identical to the domain U of the second (EII.13 D.7), (1970). 2) The axiom of choice consists of creating the Hilbert terms from the only relations admitting a graph. 3) The statement of the existence theorem of a function h such that f = goh, where f and g are two given maps having the same domain (of definition), is completed if h is more precisely an injection. Paragraph 6 considers the generalisation of equality: First, by 'the equivalence relation associated with a map f of a set E identical to (x is a member of the set E and y is a member of the set E and x:f = y:f). Consequently, every relation R(x,y) which is equivalent to this is an equivalence relation in E (symmetrical, transitive, reflexive); then R admits a graph included in E x E, etc. Secondly, by means of the Hilbert term of a relation R submitted to the equivalence. In this last case, if R(x,y) is separately collectivizing in x and y, theta(x) is not the class of objects equivalent to x for R (EII.47.9), (1970). The interest of bringing together these two subjects, apart from this logical order, resides also in the fact that the theorem mentioned in 3) can be expressed by means of the equivalence relations associated with the functions f and g. The solutions of the examples proposed reveal their simplicity [fr

  4. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  5. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  6. Global warming and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonand, Frederic

    2015-01-01

    The macro-economic impacts of climate change and of policies to reduce carbon content should be moderate on a global basis for the planet - a few hundredths of a % of world GDP on an annual basis, but significant for some regions (Asia-Pacific notably). The probability of extreme climatic events justifies with effect from today the implementation of measures that will carry a cost in order to limit global warming. (author)

  7. Investigations into the Impact of the Equivalence Ratio on Turbulent Premixed Combustion Using Particle Image Velocimetry and Large Eddy Simulation Techniques: “V” and “M” Flame Configurations in a Swirl Combustor

    KAUST Repository

    Kewlani, Gaurav

    2016-03-24

    Turbulent premixed combustion is studied using experiments and numerical simulations in an acoustically uncoupled cylindrical sudden-expansion swirl combustor, and the impact of the equivalence ratio on the flame–flow characteristics is analyzed. In order to numerically capture the inherent unsteadiness exhibited in the flow, the large eddy simulation (LES) technique based on the artificial flame thickening combustion model is employed. The experimental data are obtained using particle image velocimetry. It is observed that changes in heat loading, in the presence of wall confinement, significantly influence the flow field in the wake region, the stabilization location of the flame, and the flame intensity. Specifically, increasing the equivalence ratio drastically reduces the average inner recirculation zone size and causes transition of the flame macrostructure from the “V” configuration to the “M” configuration. In other words, while the flame stabilizes along the inner shear layer for the V flame, a persistent diffuse reaction zone is also manifested along the outer shear layer for the M flame. The average chemiluminescence intensity increases in the case of the M flame macrostructure, while the axial span of the reaction zone within the combustion chamber decreases. The predictions of the numerical approach resemble the experimental observations, suggesting that the LES framework can be an effective tool for examining the effect of heat loading on flame–flow interactions and the mechanism of transition of the flame macrostructure with a corresponding change in the equivalence ratio.

  8. Comparing equivalent thermal, high pressure and pulsed electric field processes for mild pasteurization of orange juice. Part I: Impact on overall quality attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, R.A.H.; Mastwijk, H.C.; Knol, J.J.; Quataert, M.C.J.; Vervoort, L.; Plancken, van der I.; Hendrickx, M.E.; Matser, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Mild heat pasteurization, high pressure processing (HP) and pulsed electric field (PEF) processing of freshly squeezed orange juice were comparatively evaluated examining their impact on microbial load and quality parameters immediately after processing and during two months of storage. Microbial

  9. The equivalence theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veltman, H.

    1990-01-01

    The equivalence theorem states that, at an energy E much larger than the vector-boson mass M, the leading order of the amplitude with longitudinally polarized vector bosons on mass shell is given by the amplitude in which these vector bosons are replaced by the corresponding Higgs ghosts. We prove the equivalence theorem and show its validity in every order in perturbation theory. We first derive the renormalized Ward identities by using the diagrammatic method. Only the Feynman-- 't Hooft gauge is discussed. The last step of the proof includes the power-counting method evaluated in the large-Higgs-boson-mass limit, needed to estimate the leading energy behavior of the amplitudes involved. We derive expressions for the amplitudes involving longitudinally polarized vector bosons for all orders in perturbation theory. The fermion mass has not been neglected and everything is evaluated in the region m f ∼M much-lt E much-lt m Higgs

  10. A global meta-analysis on the impact of management practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from cropland soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural practices contribute significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but little is known about their effects on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of carbon dioxide emissions per unit area or crop yield. Se...

  11. Impacts of ocean acidification on sea urchin growth across the juvenile to mature adult life-stage transition is mitigated by warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dworjanyn, Symon A; Byrne, Maria

    2018-04-11

    Understanding how growth trajectories of calcifying invertebrates are affected by changing climate requires acclimation experiments that follow development across life-history transitions. In a long-term acclimation study, the effects of increased acidification and temperature on survival and growth of the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla from the early juvenile (5 mm test diameter-TD) through the developmental transition to the mature adult (60 mm TD) were investigated. Juveniles were reared in a combination of three temperature and three pH/ p CO 2 treatments, including treatments commensurate with global change projections. Elevated temperature and p CO 2 /pH both affected growth, but there was no interaction between these factors. The urchins grew more slowly at pH 7.6, but not at pH 7.8. Slow growth may be influenced by the inability to compensate coelomic fluid acid-base balance at pH 7.6. Growth was faster at +3 and +6°C compared to that in ambient temperature. Acidification and warming had strong and interactive effects on reproductive potential. Warming increased the gonad index, but acidification decreased it. At pH 7.6 there were virtually no gonads in any urchins regardless of temperature. The T. gratilla were larger at maturity under combined near-future warming and acidification scenarios (+3°C/pH 7.8). Although the juveniles grew and survived in near-future warming and acidification conditions, chronic exposure to these stressors from an early stage altered allocation to somatic and gonad growth. In the absence of phenotypic adjustment, the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the benthic life phases of sea urchins may compromise reproductive fitness and population maintenance as global climatic change unfolds. © 2018 The Author(s).

  12. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  13. Effects of elevated CO[sub 2], nutrition and climate warming on bud phenology in Sitka spruce (Pecea sitchensis) and the impact on the risk of frost damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, M.B.; Smith, R.I.; Leith, I.D.; Fowler, D.; Friend, A.D. (Inst. of Terrestrial Ecology, Penicuik, Midlothian (United Kingdom)); Lee, H.S.J.; Jarvis, P.G. (Edinburgh Univ., Edinburgh, Midlothian (United Kingdom))

    Effects of elevated CO[sub 2], clone, and plant nutrition on bud dormancy of Sitka spruce were examined. Sitka spruce seedlings were fumigated with ambient or elevated concentrations of CO[sub 2] in open-top chambers for three growing seasons. In 1991 and 1992, elevated CO[sub 2] delayed bud burst in the spring and advanced bud set in the autumn. In a second study, four clones of Sitka spruce taken from two provenances, at 43 and 54[degree] N, were fumigated with ambient or elevated CO[sub 2]. Elevated CO[sub 2] had no effect on bud dormancy of the Skidegate a clone, but it reduced the growing season of the North Bend b clone by 20 d. In a third study, Sitka spruce seedlings growing in ambient or elevated CO[sub 2] were supplied with one of three nutrient regimes, low (0.1), medium (0.5) and high (2.0 times potential) using a method and solution based on the Ingestad technique. Elevated CO[sub 2] did not affect bud dormancy using the high nutrient treatment, but it reduced the growing season of plants in low nutrient treatment by 22 d. The effect of elevated CO[sub 2] plus a 0, 2 or 4[degree]C climatic warming on the timing of bud burst was assessed using a simulation model and meteorological data from three sites. The model predicted that: doubling the CO[sub 2] concentration in the absence of climatic warming will delay the onset of bud burst at all three sites; climatic warming in ambient CO[sub 2] will hasten bud burst; and climatic warming in elevated CO[sub 2] will hasten bud burst but to a lesser extent than warming alone. At all sites, elevated CO[sub 2] and climatic warming increased the mean daily temperature on the date of bud burst, reducing the risk of frost damage. 42 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

    2016-08-01

    Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

  15. A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

  16. Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil Impacto do aquecimento global no custo de produção de carne bovina no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irenilza de Alencar Nääs

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RPfuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic to 160% (pessimistic. Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$ 2.88 kg-1, while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg-1, challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment.O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão daevolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de

  17. Equivalence, commensurability, value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Niels

    2017-01-01

    Deriving value in Capital Marx uses three commensurability arguments (CA1-3). CA1 establishes equivalence in exchange as exchangeability with the same third commodity. CA2 establishes value as common denominator in commodities: embodied abstract labour. CA3 establishes value substance...... as commonality of labour: physiological labour. Tensions between these logics have permeated Marxist interpretations of value. Some have supported value as embodied labour (CA2, 3), others a monetary theory of value and value as ‘pure’ societal abstraction (ultimately CA1). They all are grounded in Marx....

  18. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  19. Seahorses under a changing ocean: the impact of warming and acidification on the behaviour and physiology of a poor-swimming bony-armoured fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Santos, Catarina; Aurélio, Maria L; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago; Rosa, Rui

    2015-01-01

    Seahorses are currently facing great challenges in the wild, including habitat degradation and overexploitation, and how they will endure additional stress from rapid climate change has yet to be determined. Unlike most fishes, the poor swimming skills of seahorses, along with the ecological and biological constraints of their unique lifestyle, place great weight on their physiological ability to cope with climate changes. In the present study, we evaluate the effects of ocean warming (+4°C) and acidification (ΔpH = -0.5 units) on the physiological and behavioural ecology of adult temperate seahorses, Hippocampus guttulatus. Adult seahorses were found to be relatively well prepared to face future changes in ocean temperature, but not the combined effect of warming and acidification. Seahorse metabolism increased normally with warming, and behavioural and feeding responses were not significantly affected. However, during hypercapnia the seahorses exhibited signs of lethargy (i.e. reduced activity levels) combined with a reduction of feeding and ventilation rates. Nonetheless, metabolic rates were not significantly affected. Future ocean changes, particularly ocean acidification, may further threaten seahorse conservation, turning these charismatic fishes into important flagship species for global climate change issues.

  20. Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spandagos, Constantinos; Ng, Tze Ling

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • EFLH for estimating cooling/heating energy demand in Asian buildings are provided. • Net increases in building energy consumption over the next 30 years are predicted. • Switching to more efficient AC devices can offset much of the increases. - Abstract: Estimating cooling and heating energy requirements is an integral part of designing and managing buildings. Further, as buildings are among the largest energy consumers in cities, the estimates are important for formulating effective energy conservation strategies. Where complex hourly simulation models are not favored, such estimates may be derived by simplified methods that are less computationally intensive but still provide results that are reasonably close to those obtained from the more complicated approach. The equivalent full load hours (EFLH) method is a simplified energy estimation method that has recently gained popularity. It offers a straightforward means of evaluating energy efficiency programs. However, to date, easily accessible EFLH data exist only for a very limited number of countries in North America and Europe, but not Asia. This current work provides previously unavailable monthly EFLH data for building cooling and heating in three large Asian cities, viz. Hong Kong, Seoul and Tokyo. To assess the effects of changing temperature over the course of decades on building cooling and heating energy consumption, EFLH data are calculated for three time periods: past (1983–2005), present (2006–2014) and future (2015–2044). The projections for the future time period are based on the climate scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. RCP-4.5 assumes a stabilization of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions followed by a reduction, while RCP-8.5 assumes their further increase. From the EFLH data, considering just the effects of ambient temperature changes, it is projected the

  1. Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

    2009-01-01

    Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

  2. Waste Determination Equivalency - 12172

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, Rebecca D. [Savannah River Remediation (United States)

    2012-07-01

    by the Secretary of Energy in January of 2006 based on proposed processing techniques with the expectation that it could be revised as new processing capabilities became viable. Once signed, however, it became evident that any changes would require lengthy review and another determination signed by the Secretary of Energy. With the maturation of additional salt removal technologies and the extension of the SWPF start-up date, it becomes necessary to define 'equivalency' to the processes laid out in the original determination. For the purposes of SRS, any waste not processed through Interim Salt Processing must be processed through SWPF or an equivalent process, and therefore a clear statement of the requirements for a process to be equivalent to SWPF becomes necessary. (authors)

  3. Establishing Substantial Equivalence: Proteomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovegrove, Alison; Salt, Louise; Shewry, Peter R.

    Wheat is a major crop in world agriculture and is consumed after processing into a range of food products. It is therefore of great importance to determine the consequences (intended and unintended) of transgenesis in wheat and whether genetically modified lines are substantially equivalent to those produced by conventional plant breeding. Proteomic analysis is one of several approaches which can be used to address these questions. Two-dimensional PAGE (2D PAGE) remains the most widely available method for proteomic analysis, but is notoriously difficult to reproduce between laboratories. We therefore describe methods which have been developed as standard operating procedures in our laboratory to ensure the reproducibility of proteomic analyses of wheat using 2D PAGE analysis of grain proteins.

  4. Greenhouse gases and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

  5. Possibility and necessity measures and integral equivalence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chen, T.; Mesiar, Radko; Li, J.; Stupňanová, A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 86, č. 1 (2017), s. 62-72 ISSN 0888-613X Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Integral equivalence * Necessity measure * Possibility measure * Survival function * Universal integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 2.845, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0477092.pdf

  6. Equivalent operator preconditioning for elliptic problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Axelsson, Owe; Karátson, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 3 (2009), s. 297-380 ISSN 1017-1398 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : Elliptic problem * Conjugate gradient method * preconditioning * equivalent operators * compact operators Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.716, year: 2009 http://en.scientificcommons.org/42514649

  7. The Impact on Allergy-Related Cells of a Birch Pollen Allergoid, with and without Monophosphoryl Lipid A, in Comparison with the Native Equivalent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worm, Margitta; Ernst, Dennis; Kraller, Markus; Babina, Magda

    2017-01-01

    The clinical efficacy and safety of allergoid immunotherapy have been demonstrated in clinical trials. However, simultaneous monitoring of the immunological changes by allergoids versus allergens in the cells of the same individual has not been extensively performed, and the impact of concurrent Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) ligation has not been specified. Three types of birch allergen were utilized: glutaraldehyde-treated allergoid (extract A), the same allergoid plus monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL), i.e., TLR4 ligand (extract A*), and native allergen (extract B). Antigen-specific responses after the in vitro stimulation of blood cells with the extracts were assessed by studying costimulatory receptors on the B cell surface by flow cytometry, cytokine responses by ELISA, and CD63 and CD203c upregulation (basophil activation test) in allergic versus nonallergic subjects. HLA-DR selectively increased upon allergen or allergoid treatment in the allergic group only. The extract types elicited similar cytokine responses, with IL-6 and IL-10 production detected only in certain atopic subjects. The allergoids revealed a strong reduction (100- to allergoid employed was sharply reduced when compared to the native allergen, while its immunogenicity was largely retained, especially in the presence of MPL. We also provide further evidence that allergic and nonallergic individuals show preexisting differences in their immune repertoires. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  9. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  10. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  11. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  12. Impact of decade-long warming, nutrient addition and shading on emission and carbon isotopic composition of CO2 from two subarctic dwarf shrub heaths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Nynne R.; Ambus, Per Lennart; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated ecosystem respiration, soil respiration and carbon isotopic composition in CO2 emitted from two subarctic shrub heaths with contrasting moisture regimes. The reported measurements were conducted 22 years (mesic heath) and 12 years (wet heath) upon initiation of in situ...... the growing season. However, there was a tendency across growing season towards an increased δ13C source value after 22 years of warming in the mesic shrub heath, and the effect was statistically significant in June, indicating increased decomposition of 13C enriched material. Hence, although more of the old...

  13. Quantification of the equivalence principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epstein, K.J.

    1978-01-01

    Quantitative relationships illustrate Einstein's equivalence principle, relating it to Newton's ''fictitious'' forces arising from the use of noninertial frames, and to the form of the relativistic time dilatation in local Lorentz frames. The equivalence principle can be interpreted as the equivalence of general covariance to local Lorentz covariance, in a manner which is characteristic of Riemannian and pseudo-Riemannian geometries

  14. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  15. US demilitarization and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, A.G.; Liston-Heyes, C.; Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, London

    1993-01-01

    In the paper input-output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the US federal budget. The impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous, and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed. The effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy-wide cuts in personal taxation and/or deficit reduction. In other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial. (author)

  16. Impacts of 2°C global warming on primary production and soil carbon storage capacity at pan-European level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulla Sakalli

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 has been dramatically increasing since beginning of the industrial time (i.e. 1860, being one of the main driver for climate change at regional and global level. The change in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, together with that of temperature, precipitation and/or so radiation, can influence the biogeochemical cycles in all ecosystems. In this study, we investigate the combined effect of CO2 concentration and six climate variables on carbon uptake, i.e., gross primary production (GPP and carbon storage, i.e, soil carbon (SoilC in terrestrial biosphere by using the Community Land Model (CLM vers. 4.5 and evaluate the model’s results against available observation data. We also analysed the change in carbon uptake and storage under a 2°C global mean warming. Results show that the model performed reasonably well for GPP and SoilC at pan-European scale. We also found a positive correlation between GPP, precipitation and surface wind, and a negative correlation between GPP and surface downwelling longwave radiation (rlds. Under a 2°C global warming, GPP and SoilC show an increase, an average, of about 20%, and 5% at pan-European scale, respectively. However, our results indicate that CLM4.5 may need improvements particularly in carbon-nitrogen interaction and carbon accumulation in soil.

  17. New recommendations for dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1985-01-01

    In its report 39, the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU), has defined four new quantities for the determination of dose equivalents from external sources: the ambient dose equivalent, the directional dose equivalent, the individual dose equivalent, penetrating and the individual dose equivalent, superficial. The rationale behind these concepts and their practical application are discussed. Reference is made to numerical values of these quantities which will be the subject of a coming publication from the International Commission on Radiological Protection, ICRP. (Author)

  18. Global warming: the significance of methane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, B.; Le Treut, H.; Laponche, B.

    2008-01-01

    the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) indicates the relative contribution to global warming over a given period (for example 100 years) of a pulse emission at the start of the period of 1 kg of a specific greenhouse gas (GHG) in comparison to the contribution, over the same period, of an emission of 1 kg of CO 2 . The GWPs calculated for different time intervals take into account the differences in atmospheric lifetimes of the different GHGs. Using the '100-year GWP' to measure non CO 2 GHG emissions is not well suited to the case of permanent or long lifetime measures whose effectiveness is to be assessed at a given time horizon. In this context, it contributes to significantly playing down the importance of reducing emissions of GHGs with short atmospheric lifetimes. Thus, for example, methane which is not emitted over the period 2020- 2100 as a result of a landfill site being closed in 2020 will have an impact (as opposed to if the site remained in operation) that would be far greater towards 2100 compared to a CO 2 emission source that has also been stopped permanently and whose climate impact is measured in an equivalent manner. Using the GWP is only appropriate if applied year after year to time horizons considered to be of concern or decisive by climate studies, thus in particular 2050, 2100 and 2150. This is all the more significant as climate experts' current concerns lead them not only to advocate long-term stabilisation of GHG concentrations but also to avoid as far as possible intermediate excess of these concentrations over the coming century. Finally, it is noted that CH 4 prevention policies implemented in the short term may continue to have a long-term impact greater than merely taking into account the current GWP would imply. To more or less ignore the impact of CH 4 as it is unsuitable for accounting purposes affects the exclusive character of the link that may exist between the issue of GHGs and that of energy. Furthermore, if the

  19. System equivalent model mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaassen, Steven W. B.; van der Seijs, Maarten V.; de Klerk, Dennis

    2018-05-01

    This paper introduces SEMM: a method based on Frequency Based Substructuring (FBS) techniques that enables the construction of hybrid dynamic models. With System Equivalent Model Mixing (SEMM) frequency based models, either of numerical or experimental nature, can be mixed to form a hybrid model. This model follows the dynamic behaviour of a predefined weighted master model. A large variety of applications can be thought of, such as the DoF-space expansion of relatively small experimental models using numerical models, or the blending of different models in the frequency spectrum. SEMM is outlined, both mathematically and conceptually, based on a notation commonly used in FBS. A critical physical interpretation of the theory is provided next, along with a comparison to similar techniques; namely DoF expansion techniques. SEMM's concept is further illustrated by means of a numerical example. It will become apparent that the basic method of SEMM has some shortcomings which warrant a few extensions to the method. One of the main applications is tested in a practical case, performed on a validated benchmark structure; it will emphasize the practicality of the method.

  20. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  1. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  2. Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

    2016-01-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth?s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world?s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previou...

  3. Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Qi, Yongqing; Li, Zhiqiang; Wang, Rende; Moiwo, Juana P.; Liu, Fengshan

    2017-03-01

    Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d•10yr-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades (1981-2009) prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d•10yr-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg•yr-1. However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg•yr-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

  4. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  5. The equivalence principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smorodinskij, Ya.A.

    1980-01-01

    The prerelativistic history of the equivalence principle (EP) is presented briefly. Its role in history of the general relativity theory (G.R.T.) discovery is elucidated. A modern idea states that the ratio of inert and gravitational masses does not differ from 1 at least up to the 12 sign after comma. Attention is paid to the difference of the gravitational field from electromagnetic one. The difference is as follows, the energy of the gravitational field distributed in space is the source of the field. These fields always interact at superposition. Electromagnetic fields from different sources are put together. On the basis of EP it is established the Sun field interact with the Earth gravitational energy in the same way as with any other one. The latter proves the existence of gravitation of the very gravitational field to a heavy body. A problem on gyroscope movement in the Earth gravitational field is presented as a paradox. The calculation has shown that gyroscope at satellite makes a positive precession, and its axis turns in an angle equal to α during a turn of the satellite round the Earth, but because of the space curvature - into the angle two times larger than α. A resulting turn is equal to 3α. It is shown on the EP basis that the polarization plane in any coordinate system does not turn when the ray of light passes in the gravitational field. Together with the historical value of EP noted is the necessity to take into account the requirements claimed by the EP at description of the physical world

  6. Impact of northern Eurasian snow cover in autumn on the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern during the following January and its linkage to stationary planetary waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xinping; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun

    2018-03-01

    The connection between Eurasian snow cover (SC) in autumn and Eurasian winter mean surface air temperature (SAT) has been identified by many studies. However, some recent observations indicate that early and late winter climate sometimes shows an out-of-phase relationship, suggesting that the winter mean situation might obscure the important relationships that are relevant for scientific research and applications. This study investigates the relationship between October northern Eurasian SC (NESC; 58°-68°N, 30°-90°E) and Eurasian SAT during the winter months and finds a significant relationship only exists in January. Generally, following reduced October NESC, the East Asian trough and Ural high are intensified in January, and anomalous northeasterly winds prevail in mid-latitudes, causing cold anomalies over Eurasia. Meanwhile, anomalous southwesterly winds along the northern fringe of the Ural high favor warm anomalies in the Arctic. The dynamical mechanism for the connection between NESC in October and the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) anomaly in January is further investigated from the perspective of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. It is found that planetary waves with zonal wavenumber-1 (ZWN1) play a dominant role in this process. Specifically, the ZWN1 pattern of planetary-scale waves concurrent with October NESC anomaly extends from the surface to the upper-stratosphere. It persists in the stratosphere through November-December and propagates downward to the surface by the following January, making the connection between October NESC and January climate possible. Additionally, the influence of October NESC on the January WACE pattern has intensified since the early-2000s.

  7. Climate change in Eastern Taimyr over the last 80 years and the warming impact on biodiversity and ecosystem processes in its territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena B. Pospelova

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of long-term changes of mean annual temperatures and the active temperature sum over 80 years was carried out using data of the Khatanga meteorological station. Since the 1990s, an essential warming was observed, especially after 2000. The warming influence on vegetation takes place immediately (the ecosystem composition changes due to the degradation of cryogenic processes as well as directly by increasing the time of the vegetation period and the total amount of heat on plants. As a result, in the last few years, the lead of phenological phenomena terms is observed – the time of foliage expansion and efflorescence of plants-indicators, geese arriving, mosquitos appearance, ice thawing. By long term monitoring data, the moving of some north-taiga plant species to forest tundra and tundra is observed, as well as their establishing in vegetation communities. However, at this moment, the character of the vegetation is stable. The occurrence of taiga animals is increased in tundra and forest tundra. An active revival of larch is observed in forest tundra and north sparse forests. A removing forest border to the north is not observed, but in the southern mountains of Taimyr its replacing on higher levels could be seen. A decreasing summer precipitation quantity increases the possibility of forest fires, spring and bog drying. It influences negatively on bog flora and near-water fauna. It is possible, that the main reason of the local climate change at the East of Taimyr is less connected to the global planet change, but much more to pulsations of the strong Siberian anticyclone.

  8. Impacts of integrated nutrient management on methane emission, global warming potential and carbon storage capacity in rice grown in a northeast India soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharali, Ashmita; Baruah, Kushal Kumar; Baruah, Sunitee Gohain; Bhattacharyya, Pradip

    2018-02-01

    Rice soil is a source of emission of two major greenhouse gases (methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O)) and a sink of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The effect of inorganic fertilizers in combination with various organics (cow dung, green manure (Sesbania aculeata) Azolla compost, rice husk) on CH 4 emission, global warming potential, and soil carbon storage along with crop productivity were studied at university farm under field conditions. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design for 2 years in a monsoon rice (cv. Ranjit) ecosystem (June-November, 2014 and 2015). Combined application of inorganic (NPK) with Sesbania aculeata resulted in high global warming potential (GWP) of 887.4 kg CO 2 ha -1 and low GWP of 540.6 kg CO 2 ha -1 was recorded from inorganic fertilizer applied field. Irrespective of the type of organic amendments, flag leaf photosynthesis of the rice crop increased over NPK application (control). There was an increase in CH 4 emission from the organic amended fields compared to NPK alone. The combined application of NPK and Azolla compost was effective in the buildup of soil carbon (16.93 g kg -1 ) and capacity of soil carbon storage (28.1 Mg C ha -1 ) with high carbon efficiency ratio (16.9). Azolla compost application along with NPK recorded 15.66% higher CH 4 emission with 27.43% yield increment over control. Azolla compost application significantly enhanced carbon storage of soil and improved the yielding ability of grain (6.55 Mg ha -1 ) over other treatments.

  9. Keeping cool on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

  10. Economic approaches to greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Global environmental problems raise a host of major policy questions. They are all scientifically complex and controversial, and no scientific consensus is likely to emerge until irreversible decisions have been made. The costs and benefits of these changes transcend national boundaries, and nations, which cannot appropriate the global costs and benefits of such changes, are unlikely to be able or willing to make efficient decisions on how to combat these global externalities. In addition, these concerns sometimes have impacts over hundreds of years and thereby strain political decision making, which often functions effectively only when the crisis is at hand. This chapter considers some of the economic issues involved in deciding how to react to the threat of global warming. The author first reviews the theory and evidence on the greenhouse effect. He then presents evidence on the impacts of greenhouse warming, the costs of stabilizing climate, and the kinds of adaptations that might be available. In the final section, he reviews the policy initiatives that nations might follow in the near term

  11. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  12. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  13. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  14. Global warming from an energy perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, A.G.

    1991-01-01

    Global climate change and energy are integrally related. The majority of greenhouse gas emissions are the result of energy production and use; at the same time, warming will affect energy patterns in California through physical increases in energy demand, physical changes in energy supply, and changes in both energy end-use patterns and supplies resulting from climate-change policies. There seems to be a growing political consensus that the world (as well as the state) needs to act soon to minimize further commitment to future warming. While California is not likely to experience the physical changes resulting from a warmer climate for years or perhaps decades, policy responses to the warming issue may cause more immediate impacts. This chapter will discuss how policy response to potential warming may be the most significant early impact of the issue on California's energy system. Makers of energy policy face the dilemma of deciding how to respond to the climate warming issue in the face of scientific uncertainties about its timing and seriousness. The chapter will conclude by presenting a conceptual framework for dealing with this dilemma, along with general recommendations for action

  15. Logically automorphically equivalent knowledge bases

    OpenAIRE

    Aladova, Elena; Plotkin, Tatjana

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge bases theory provide an important example of the field where applications of universal algebra and algebraic logic look very natural, and their interaction with practical problems arising in computer science might be very productive. In this paper we study the equivalence problem for knowledge bases. Our interest is to find out how the informational equivalence is related to the logical description of knowledge. Studying various equivalences of knowledge bases allows us to compare d...

  16. Testing statistical hypotheses of equivalence

    CERN Document Server

    Wellek, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Equivalence testing has grown significantly in importance over the last two decades, especially as its relevance to a variety of applications has become understood. Yet published work on the general methodology remains scattered in specialists' journals, and for the most part, it focuses on the relatively narrow topic of bioequivalence assessment.With a far broader perspective, Testing Statistical Hypotheses of Equivalence provides the first comprehensive treatment of statistical equivalence testing. The author addresses a spectrum of specific, two-sided equivalence testing problems, from the

  17. Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-26

    Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

  18. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  19. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  20. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

  1. Ecophysiology at SPRUCE: Impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 on leaf-level photosynthesis and respiration of two ericaceous shrubs in a boreal peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Dusenge, M. E.; Warren, J.; Murphy, B. K.; Way, D.; King, A. W.; McLennan, D.; Montgomery, R.; Stefanski, A.; Reich, P. B.; Cruz Aguilar, M.; Wullschleger, S.; Bermudez Villanueva, R.; Hanson, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project is a large-scale, long-term experiment investigating the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on an ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota, USA. SPRUCE uses 10 large (12.8-m diameter) enclosures to increase air and soil temperatures to a range of targets (+0 °C, +2.25 °C, +4.5 °C, +6.75 °C, +9 °C) under both ambient and elevated (+500 ppm) CO2 concentrations. Whole-ecosystem-warming treatments began in August 2015 and elevated CO2 treatments began in June 2016. This talk will address the photosynthetic and respiratory responses of vascular plants to the treatments as measured with a variety of in-situ and ex-situ measurements conducted throughout the 2016 and 2017 growing seasons. We will focus on the responses of two dominant ericaceous shrubs (Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata), which account for more 80% of the understory biomass of this open-canopy forest. Such physiological changes are not only leading indicators of changes in plant growth and community structure, but are crucial to understanding carbon cycling of raised bogs and representing boreal peatlands in global dynamic vegetation models. Pre-treatment data collected at this site indicate that the physiologically active season typically begins in late May and extends into the fall until freezing nighttime temperatures are consistently reached, typically in October. Post-treatment measurements made during seasonal transitions indicate a longer active physiological season in warmer treatments. Results from 2016 measurements show some degree of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis in R. groenlandicum and of respiration in both species in the early growing season, but not late season. Late season measurements show a down-regulation of photosynthesis in both shrub species grown under elevated CO2. Taken as a whole, these results indicate complex interactions between phenological changes and treatment effects on

  2. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  3. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  4. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  5. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  6. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  7. Impact of GHG warming on the mean and extreme loading of particulate matter pollution in a chemistry-climate model ensemble simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Based on the daily model output, the frequency and intensity of extreme pollution events are also studied. We found that both stagnation frequency and rainfall changes serve to worsen extreme pollution in the future.

  8. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2017-01-01

    The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

  9. SAPONIFICATION EQUIVALENT OF DASAMULA TAILA

    OpenAIRE

    Saxena, R. B.

    1994-01-01

    Saponification equivalent values of Dasamula taila are very useful for the technical and analytical work. It gives the mean molecular weight of the glycerides and acids present in Dasamula Taila. Saponification equivalent values of Dasamula taila are reported in different packings.

  10. Saponification equivalent of dasamula taila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, R B

    1994-07-01

    Saponification equivalent values of Dasamula taila are very useful for the technical and analytical work. It gives the mean molecular weight of the glycerides and acids present in Dasamula Taila. Saponification equivalent values of Dasamula taila are reported in different packings.

  11. A study on lead equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Guanxin

    1991-01-01

    A study on the rules in which the lead equivalent of lead glass changes with the energy of X rays or γ ray is described. The reason of this change is discussed and a new testing method of lead equivalent is suggested

  12. Canonizing certain Borel equivalences for Silver forcing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Doucha, Michal

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 159, č. 13 (2012), s. 2973-2979 ISSN 0166-8641. [Prague Symposium on General Topology and its Relations to Modern Analysis and Algebra /11./. Prague, 07.08.2011-12.08.2011] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Borel equivalence relations * silver ideal * canonical Ramsey theorem Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.562, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166864112002180#

  13. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  14. The Carbon and Global Warming Potential Impacts of Organic Farming: Does It Have a Significant Role in an Energy Constrained World?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph C. Martin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available About 130 studies were analyzed to compare farm-level energy use and global warming potential (GWP of organic and conventional production sectors. Cross cutting issues such as tillage, compost, soil carbon sequestration and energy offsets were also reviewed. Finally, we contrasted E and GWP data from the wider food system. We concluded that the evidence strongly favours organic farming with respect to whole-farm energy use and energy efficiency both on a per hectare and per farm product basis, with the possible exception of poultry and fruit sectors. For GWP, evidence is insufficient except in a few sectors, with results per ha more consistently favouring organic farming than GWP per unit product. Tillage was consistently a negligible contributor to farm E use and additional tillage on organic farms does not appear to significantly deplete soil C. Energy offsets, biogas, energy crops and residues have a more limited role on organic farms compared to conventional ones, because of the nutrient and soil building uses of soil organic matter, and the high demand for organic foods in human markets. If farm E use represents 35% of total food chain E use, improvements shown of 20% or more in E efficiency through organic farm management would reduce food-chain E use by 7% or more. Among other food supply chain stages, wholesale/retail (including cooling and packaging and processing often each contribute 30% or more to total food system E. Thus, additional improvements can be obtained with reduced processing, whole foods and food waste minimization.

  15. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  16. Determination of dose equivalent with tissue-equivalent proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dietze, G.; Schuhmacher, H.; Menzel, H.G.

    1989-01-01

    Low pressure tissue-equivalent proportional counters (TEPC) are instruments based on the cavity chamber principle and provide spectral information on the energy loss of single charged particles crossing the cavity. Hence such detectors measure absorbed dose or kerma and are able to provide estimates on radiation quality. During recent years TEPC based instruments have been developed for radiation protection applications in photon and neutron fields. This was mainly based on the expectation that the energy dependence of their dose equivalent response is smaller than that of other instruments in use. Recently, such instruments have been investigated by intercomparison measurements in various neutron and photon fields. Although their principles of measurements are more closely related to the definition of dose equivalent quantities than those of other existing dosemeters, there are distinct differences and limitations with respect to the irradiation geometry and the determination of the quality factor. The application of such instruments for measuring ambient dose equivalent is discussed. (author)

  17. Anesthesia and global warming: the real hazards of theoretic science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mychaskiw II George

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent speculative articles in the medical literature have indicted certain inhalational anesthetics as contributing to global warming. This unfounded speculation may have deleterious patient impact

  18. What is correct: equivalent dose or dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franic, Z.

    1994-01-01

    In Croatian language some physical quantities in radiation protection dosimetry have not precise names. Consequently, in practice either terms in English or mathematical formulas are used. The situation is even worse since the Croatian language only a limited number of textbooks, reference books and other papers are available. This paper compares the concept of ''dose equivalent'' as outlined in International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations No. 26 and newest, conceptually different concept of ''equivalent dose'' which is introduced in ICRP 60. It was found out that Croatian terminology is both not uniform and unprecise. For the term ''dose equivalent'' was, under influence of Russian and Serbian languages, often used as term ''equivalent dose'' even from the point of view of ICRP 26 recommendations, which was not justified. Unfortunately, even now, in Croatia the legal unit still ''dose equivalent'' defined as in ICRP 26, but the term used for it is ''equivalent dose''. Therefore, in Croatian legislation a modified set of quantities introduced in ICRP 60, should be incorporated as soon as possible

  19. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  20. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  1. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  2. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  3. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  4. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  5. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  6. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  7. Comparative study of the impacts of hydroelectric power plants with impacts avoided by a Virtual Plants Equivalents (VPEs) through of energy efficiency actions; Estudo comparativo dos impactos das usinas hidreletricas com os impactos evitados por uma usina virtual equivalente atraves das acoes de eficiencia energetica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Roberto Perillo Barbosa da; Barros, Regiane Silva de [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica], emails: rpbsilva@fem.unicamp.br, rsbarros@fem.unicamp.br Rossi, Luiz Antonio [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEAGRI/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. Engenharia Agricola], email: rossi@feagri.unicamp.br

    2010-07-01

    This article presents a comparative study of the impacts caused by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPPs) in relation to the impacts avoided through actions that promotes energy efficiency called Virtual Plants Equivalents (VPEs). To do so, it was considering the recent results presented by the National Program for Electric Energy Conservation (PROCEL) to the year 2008, which shows that the program actions' in this period resulted in a Virtual Plant Equivalent of 1049 MW. It was performed a survey of the values of wetland and families displaced by the construction of hydropower plants and, later, it was compared these data with the values found in the literature and, finally, it was established that the actions of energy efficiency are important instruments to avoid (or at least postpone) the social and environmental impacts directly and indirectly that affects the whole society. Thus, it is suggested that there is a stimulus in relation to energy efficiency actions, what is observed nowadays in Brazil is that these actions are negligible before the potential that exists at industrial, commercial and residential sectors. (author)

  8. Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-02-01

    To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

  9. Recycling of metals: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damgaard, Anders; Larsen, Anna W; Christensen, Thomas H

    2009-11-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of metals in post-consumer waste are assessed from a waste management perspective; here the material recovery facility (MRF), for the sorting of the recovered metal. The GHG accounting includes indirect upstream emissions, direct activities at the MRF as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of reprocessing of the metal scrap and savings in terms of avoided production of virgin metal. The global warming factor (GWF) shows that upstream activities and the MRF causes negligible GHG emissions (12.8 to 52.6 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) recovered metal) compared to the reprocessing of the metal itself (360-1260 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of recovered aluminium and 400- 1020 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(- 1) of recovered steel).The reprocessing is however counterbalanced by large savings of avoided virgin production of steel and aluminium. The net downstream savings were found to be 5040-19 340 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated aluminium and 560-2360 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated steel. Due to the huge differences in reported data it is hard to compare general data on the recovery of metal scrap as they are very dependent on the technology and data choices. Furthermore, the energy used in both the recovery process as well as the avoided primary production is crucial. The range of avoided impact shows that recovery of metals will always be beneficial over primary production, due to the high energy savings, and that the GHG emissions associated with the sorting of metals are negligible.

  10. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

    2017-04-01

    In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

  11. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor

    2017-04-11

    In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

  12. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  13. Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

  14. Symmetries of dynamically equivalent theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitman, D.M.; Tyutin, I.V. [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Lebedev Physics Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-03-15

    A natural and very important development of constrained system theory is a detail study of the relation between the constraint structure in the Hamiltonian formulation with specific features of the theory in the Lagrangian formulation, especially the relation between the constraint structure with the symmetries of the Lagrangian action. An important preliminary step in this direction is a strict demonstration, and this is the aim of the present article, that the symmetry structures of the Hamiltonian action and of the Lagrangian action are the same. This proved, it is sufficient to consider the symmetry structure of the Hamiltonian action. The latter problem is, in some sense, simpler because the Hamiltonian action is a first-order action. At the same time, the study of the symmetry of the Hamiltonian action naturally involves Hamiltonian constraints as basic objects. One can see that the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian actions are dynamically equivalent. This is why, in the present article, we consider from the very beginning a more general problem: how the symmetry structures of dynamically equivalent actions are related. First, we present some necessary notions and relations concerning infinitesimal symmetries in general, as well as a strict definition of dynamically equivalent actions. Finally, we demonstrate that there exists an isomorphism between classes of equivalent symmetries of dynamically equivalent actions. (author)

  15. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  16. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  17. Matching of equivalent field regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appel-Hansen, Jørgen; Rengarajan, S.B.

    2005-01-01

    In aperture problems, integral equations for equivalent currents are often found by enforcing matching of equivalent fields. The enforcement is made in the aperture surface region adjoining the two volumes on each side of the aperture. In the case of an aperture in a planar perfectly conducting...... screen, having the same homogeneous medium on both sides and an impressed current on one aide, an alternative procedure is relevant. We make use of the fact that in the aperture the tangential component of the magnetic field due to the induced currents in the screen is zero. The use of such a procedure...... shows that equivalent currents can be found by a consideration of only one of the two volumes into which the aperture plane divides the space. Furthermore, from a consideration of an automatic matching at the aperture, additional information about tangential as well as normal field components...

  18. Teleparallel equivalent of Lovelock gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, P. A.; Vásquez, Yerko

    2015-12-01

    There is a growing interest in modified gravity theories based on torsion, as these theories exhibit interesting cosmological implications. In this work inspired by the teleparallel formulation of general relativity, we present its extension to Lovelock gravity known as the most natural extension of general relativity in higher-dimensional space-times. First, we review the teleparallel equivalent of general relativity and Gauss-Bonnet gravity, and then we construct the teleparallel equivalent of Lovelock gravity. In order to achieve this goal, we use the vielbein and the connection without imposing the Weitzenböck connection. Then, we extract the teleparallel formulation of the theory by setting the curvature to null.

  19. Attainment of radiation equivalency principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shmelev, A.N.; Apseh, V.A.

    2004-01-01

    Problems connected with the prospects for long-term development of the nuclear energetics are discussed. Basic principles of the future large-scale nuclear energetics are listed, primary attention is the safety of radioactive waste management of nuclear energetics. The radiation equivalence principle means close of fuel cycle and management of nuclear materials transportation with low losses on spent fuel and waste processing. Two aspects are considered: radiation equivalence in global and local aspects. The necessity of looking for other strategies of fuel cycle management in full-scale nuclear energy on radioactive waste management is supported [ru

  20. Microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols on warm clouds during the Amazon biomass burning season as observed by MODIS: impacts of water vapor and land cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Ten Hoeve

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and temperature profile data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are utilized to examine the impact of aerosols on clouds during the Amazonian biomass burning season in Rondônia, Brazil. It is found that increasing background column water vapor (CWV throughout this transition season between the Amazon dry and wet seasons likely exerts a strong effect on cloud properties. As a result, proper analysis of aerosol-cloud relationships requires that data be stratified by CWV to account better for the influence of background meteorological variation. Many previous studies of aerosol-cloud interactions over Amazonia have ignored the systematic changes to meteorological factors during the transition season, leading to possible misinterpretation of their results. Cloud fraction (CF is shown to increase or remain constant with aerosol optical depth (AOD, depending on the value of CWV, whereas the relationship between cloud optical depth (COD and AOD is quite different. COD increases with AOD until AOD ~ 0.3, which is assumed to be due to the first indirect (microphysical effect. At higher values of AOD, COD is found to decrease with increasing AOD, which may be due to: (1 the inhibition of cloud development by absorbing aerosols (radiative effect/semi-direct effect and/or (2 a possible retrieval artifact in which the measured reflectance in the visible is less than expected from a cloud top either from the darkening of clouds through the addition of carbonaceous biomass burning aerosols within or above clouds or subpixel dark surface contamination in the measured cloud reflectance. If (1 is a contributing mechanism, as we suspect, then an empirically-derived increasing function between cloud drop number and aerosol concentration, assumed in a majority of global climate models, is inaccurate since these models do not include treatment of aerosol absorption in and around clouds. The relationship between

  1. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  2. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  3. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  4. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  5. National contributions to observed global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, H Damon; Graham, Tanya L; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J

    2014-01-01

    There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. (paper)

  6. Acute effects of a loaded warm-up protocol on change of direction speed in professional badminton players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Sean J; Turner, Anthony N; Miller, Stuart

    2014-10-01

    It has previously been shown that a loaded warm-up may improve power performances. We examined the acute effects of loaded dynamic warm-up on change of direction speed (CODS), which had not been previously investigated. Eight elite badminton players participated in three sessions during which they performed vertical countermovement jump and CODS tests before and after undertaking the dynamic warm-up. The three warm-up conditions involved wearing a weighted vest (a) equivalent to 5% body mass, (b) equivalent to 10% body mass, and (c) a control where a weighted vest was not worn. Vertical jump and CODS performances were then tested at 15 seconds and 2, 4, and 6 minutes post warm-up. Vertical jump and CODS significantly improved following all warm-up conditions (P badminton players.

  7. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO 2 ) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO 2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  8. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  9. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

    2018-02-01

    Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

  11. Comments on field equivalence principles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appel-Hansen, Jørgen

    1987-01-01

    It is pointed Out that often-used arguments based on a short-circuit concept in presentations of field equivalence principles are not correct. An alternative presentation based on the uniqueness theorem is given. It does not contradict the results obtained by using the short-circuit concept...

  12. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  13. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  14. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  15. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  16. Modelling of dynamic equivalents in electric power grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craciun, Diana Iuliana

    2010-01-01

    In a first part, this research thesis proposes a description of the context and new constraints of electric grids: architecture, decentralized production with the impact of distributed energy resource systems, dynamic simulation, and interest of equivalent models. Then, the author discusses the modelling of the different components of electric grids: synchronous and asynchronous machines, distributed energy resource with power electronic interface, loading models. She addresses the techniques of reduction of electric grid models: conventional reduction methods, dynamic equivalence methods using non linear approaches or evolutionary algorithm-based methods of assessment of parameters. This last approach is then developed and implemented, and a new method of computation of dynamic equivalents is described

  17. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  18. EQUIVALENCE VERSUS NON-EQUIVALENCE IN ECONOMIC TRANSLATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina, Chifane

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at highlighting the fact that “equivalence” represents a concept worth revisiting and detailing upon when tackling the translation process of economic texts both from English into Romanian and from Romanian into English. Far from being exhaustive, our analysis will focus upon the problems arising from the lack of equivalence at the word level. Consequently, relevant examples from the economic field will be provided to account for the following types of non-equivalence at word level: culturespecific concepts; the source language concept is not lexicalised in the target language; the source language word is semantically complex; differences in physical and interpersonal perspective; differences in expressive meaning; differences in form; differences in frequency and purpose of using specific forms and the use of loan words in the source text. Likewise, we shall illustrate a number of translation strategies necessary to deal with the afore-mentioned cases of non-equivalence: translation by a more general word (superordinate; translation by a more neutral/less expressive word; translation by cultural substitution; translation using a loan word or loan word plus explanation; translation by paraphrase using a related word; translation by paraphrase using unrelated words; translation by omission and translation by illustration.

  19. Research on Al-alloy sheet forming formability during warm/hot sheet hydroforming based on elliptical warm bulging test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Gaoshen; Wu, Chuanyu; Gao, Zepu; Lang, Lihui; Alexandrov, Sergei

    2018-05-01

    An elliptical warm/hot sheet bulging test under different temperatures and pressure rates was carried out to predict Al-alloy sheet forming limit during warm/hot sheet hydroforming. Using relevant formulas of ultimate strain to calculate and dispose experimental data, forming limit curves (FLCS) in tension-tension state of strain (TTSS) area are obtained. Combining with the basic experimental data obtained by uniaxial tensile test under the equivalent condition with bulging test, complete forming limit diagrams (FLDS) of Al-alloy are established. Using a quadratic polynomial curve fitting method, material constants of fitting function are calculated and a prediction model equation for sheet metal forming limit is established, by which the corresponding forming limit curves in TTSS area can be obtained. The bulging test and fitting results indicated that the sheet metal FLCS obtained were very accurate. Also, the model equation can be used to instruct warm/hot sheet bulging test.

  20. Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiao

    2018-04-01

    In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

  1. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  2. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  3. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  4. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  5. The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurane, Ichiro

    2010-12-01

    Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

  6. Implications of global warming on human health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, R.K.; Syam, P.V.S.

    1997-01-01

    Due to the build up of green house gases in atmosphere, less heat escapes through the atmosphere promoting global warming. This may result in world wide droughts, sea-level rise inundating islands and coastal countries, cataclysmic hurricanes etc. Human health as a result of these changes, will be affected both physiologically and psychologically. Physiological effects may be more pronounced in cases occurring due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, food production amounts, water availability, etc. Psychological impact may be more in cases of catastrophes like floods, hurricanes or famine. In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight the implications of global warming on human health due to temperature change. Food production changes and ultra-violet radiation effects and cataclysmic disaster effects. (author)

  7. The Source Equivalence Acceleration Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everson, Matthew S.; Forget, Benoit

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a new acceleration method, the Source Equivalence Acceleration Method. • SEAM forms an equivalent coarse group problem for any spatial method. • Equivalence is also formed across different spatial methods and angular quadratures. • Testing is conducted using OpenMOC and performance is compared with CMFD. • Results show that SEAM is preferable for very expensive transport calculations. - Abstract: Fine-group whole-core reactor analysis remains one of the long sought goals of the reactor physics community. Such a detailed analysis is typically too computationally expensive to be realized on anything except the largest of supercomputers. Recondensation using the Discrete Generalized Multigroup (DGM) method, though, offers a relatively cheap alternative to solving the fine group transport problem. DGM, however, suffered from inconsistencies when applied to high-order spatial methods. While an exact spatial recondensation method was developed and provided full spatial consistency with the fine group problem, this approach substantially increased memory requirements for realistic problems. The method described in this paper, called the Source Equivalence Acceleration Method (SEAM), forms a coarse-group problem which preserves the fine-group problem even when using higher order spatial methods. SEAM allows recondensation to converge to the fine-group solution with minimal memory requirements and little additional overhead. This method also provides for consistency when using different spatial methods and angular quadratures between the coarse group and fine group problems. SEAM was implemented in OpenMOC, a 2D MOC code developed at MIT, and its performance tested against Coarse Mesh Finite Difference (CMFD) acceleration on the C5G7 benchmark problem and on a 361 group version of the problem. For extremely expensive transport calculations, SEAM was able to outperform CMFD, resulting in speed-ups of 20–45 relative to the normal power

  8. Equivalent statistics and data interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Gregory

    2017-08-01

    Recent reform efforts in psychological science have led to a plethora of choices for scientists to analyze their data. A scientist making an inference about their data must now decide whether to report a p value, summarize the data with a standardized effect size and its confidence interval, report a Bayes Factor, or use other model comparison methods. To make good choices among these options, it is necessary for researchers to understand the characteristics of the various statistics used by the different analysis frameworks. Toward that end, this paper makes two contributions. First, it shows that for the case of a two-sample t test with known sample sizes, many different summary statistics are mathematically equivalent in the sense that they are based on the very same information in the data set. When the sample sizes are known, the p value provides as much information about a data set as the confidence interval of Cohen's d or a JZS Bayes factor. Second, this equivalence means that different analysis methods differ only in their interpretation of the empirical data. At first glance, it might seem that mathematical equivalence of the statistics suggests that it does not matter much which statistic is reported, but the opposite is true because the appropriateness of a reported statistic is relative to the inference it promotes. Accordingly, scientists should choose an analysis method appropriate for their scientific investigation. A direct comparison of the different inferential frameworks provides some guidance for scientists to make good choices and improve scientific practice.

  9. Attitude of US obstetricians and gynaecologists to global warming and medical waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, Cassandra; Duncan, Paula; Woods, Noe

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Global warming (or climate change) is a major public health issue, and health services are one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in high-income countries. Despite the scale of the health care sector's resource consumption, little is known about the attitude of physicians and their willingness to participate in efforts to reduce the environmental impact of health services. Methods A survey of 236 obstetricians and gynaecologists at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Western Pennsylvania, USA. Survey responses were compared to Gallup poll data from the general population using a one-sample test of proportions, Fisher's exact tests, Chi-square test, and logistic regression. Results Physicians in obstetrics and gynaecology were more likely than the public (84% vs. 54%; pglobal warming is occurring, that media portrayal of its seriousness is accurate, and that it is caused by human activities. Two-thirds of physicians felt the amount of surgical waste generated is excessive and increasing. The majority (95%) would support efforts to reduce waste, with 66% favouring the use of reusable surgical tools over disposable where clinically equivalent. Despite their preference for reusable surgical instruments, only 20% preferred the reusable devices available to them. Conclusions Health care providers engaging in sustainability efforts may encounter significant support from physicians and may benefit from including physician leaders in their efforts.

  10. Equivalent nozzle in thermomechanical problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cesari, F.

    1977-01-01

    When analyzing nuclear vessels, it is most important to study the behavior of the nozzle cylinder-cylinder intersection. For the elastic field, this analysis in three dimensions is quite easy using the method of finite elements. The same analysis in the non-linear field becomes difficult for designs in 3-D. It is therefore necessary to resolve a nozzle in two dimensions equivalent to a 3-D nozzle. The purpose of the present work is to find an equivalent nozzle both with a mechanical and thermal load. This has been achieved by the analysis in three dimensions of a nozzle and a nozzle cylinder-sphere intersection, of a different radius. The equivalent nozzle will be a nozzle with a sphere radius in a given ratio to the radius of a cylinder; thus, the maximum equivalent stress is the same in both 2-D and 3-D. The nozzle examined derived from the intersection of a cylindrical vessel of radius R=191.4 mm and thickness T=6.7 mm with a cylindrical nozzle of radius r=24.675 mm and thickness t=1.350 mm, for which the experimental results for an internal pressure load are known. The structure was subdivided into 96 finite, three-dimensional and isoparametric elements with 60 degrees of freedom and 661 total nodes. Both the analysis with a mechanical load as well as the analysis with a thermal load were carried out on this structure according to the Bersafe system. The thermal load consisted of a transient typical of an accident occurring in a sodium-cooled fast reactor, with a peak of the temperature (540 0 C) for the sodium inside the vessel with an insulating argon temperature constant at 525 0 C. The maximum value of the equivalent tension was found in the internal area at the union towards the vessel side. The analysis of the nozzle in 2-D consists in schematizing the structure as a cylinder-sphere intersection, where the sphere has a given relation to the

  11. 21 CFR 26.9 - Equivalence determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Equivalence determination. 26.9 Section 26.9 Food... Specific Sector Provisions for Pharmaceutical Good Manufacturing Practices § 26.9 Equivalence determination... document insufficient evidence of equivalence, lack of opportunity to assess equivalence or a determination...

  12. Information Leakage from Logically Equivalent Frames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sher, Shlomi; McKenzie, Craig R. M.

    2006-01-01

    Framing effects are said to occur when equivalent frames lead to different choices. However, the equivalence in question has been incompletely conceptualized. In a new normative analysis of framing effects, we complete the conceptualization by introducing the notion of information equivalence. Information equivalence obtains when no…

  13. Wijsman Orlicz Asymptotically Ideal -Statistical Equivalent Sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bipan Hazarika

    2013-01-01

    in Wijsman sense and present some definitions which are the natural combination of the definition of asymptotic equivalence, statistical equivalent, -statistical equivalent sequences in Wijsman sense. Finally, we introduce the notion of Cesaro Orlicz asymptotically -equivalent sequences in Wijsman sense and establish their relationship with other classes.

  14. Equivalence relations of AF-algebra extensions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we consider equivalence relations of *-algebra extensions and describe the relationship between the isomorphism equivalence and the unitary equivalence. We also show that a certain group homomorphism is the obstruction for these equivalence relations to be the same.

  15. Does warming affect growth rate and biomass production of shrubs in the High Arctic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campioli, Matteo; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Albert, Kristian Rost

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have assessed directly the impact of warming on plant growth and biomass production in the High Arctic. Here, we aimed to investigate the impact of 7 years of warming (open greenhouses) on the aboveground relative growth rate (RGR) of Cassiope tetragona and Salix arctica in North-East...

  16. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  17. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  18. Mixed field dose equivalent measuring instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brackenbush, L.W.; McDonald, J.C.; Endres, G.W.R.; Quam, W.

    1985-01-01

    In the past, separate instruments have been used to monitor dose equivalent from neutrons and gamma rays. It has been demonstrated that it is now possible to measure simultaneously neutron and gamma dose with a single instrument, the tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). With appropriate algorithms dose equivalent can also be determined from the TEPC. A simple ''pocket rem meter'' for measuring neutron dose equivalent has already been developed. Improved algorithms for determining dose equivalent for mixed fields are presented. (author)

  19. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  20. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  1. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonst